WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Remainder of July hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on July 15, 2009

Not much has changed in the Atlantic since my early July Atlantic hurricane outlook posted two weeks ago. Tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the last half of July, but we are still a month away from when hurricane season really gets going. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, nine of 14 years (63%) have had a named storm form during the last half of July. We had two last-half-of-July named storms last year--Christobal and Dolly. As seen in Figure 1, most of the late July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16 - 31.The Gulf of Mexico coast is the preferred strike location. There are still very few major Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming in the last half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, and are about 0.3°C (0.5°F) above average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America (Figure 2). These are some of the coolest SST anomalies for this time of year that we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near or slightly below average over the past two weeks, driving slightly below average trade winds. Weaker trade winds don't mix up as much cold water from the depths, and cause less evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued near-average or slightly below average-strength trade winds through the end of July, so SSTs should remain slightly above average during this period.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 13, 2009. SSTs were about 0.3°C (0.5°F) average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions continue to amplify over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", are now 0.4°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). An increase of another 0.1°C will push the current El Niño into the "moderate" category. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory earlier this month. The latest set of mid-June runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to become well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 8, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.9°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past three months has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern for the next week. However, during the final week of July, the subtropical jet is forecast to weaken. This will leave regions of low wind shear over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the final week of July (Figure 4), increasing the chances of hurricane development.


Figure 4. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb on July 31, 2009, as forecast by the 00Z July 15, 2009 run of the GFS model. The subtropical jet is forecast to weaken by this time, leaving regions of low wind shear over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the final week of July. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July. Several well-developed African waves have been done in by dry air from Africa over the past few weeks.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much. A persistent trough of low pressure has remained entrenched over the Eastern U.S. all summer, bringing cool and relatively moist weather to the eastern half of the country. This trough is strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the strong trough over the Eastern U.S., which decreases the hurricane risk to the U.S. Gulf Coast. There is no telling what might happen to the steering current pattern during the peak months of August, September, and October, but it is often difficult to break a months-long steering current pattern like the current one.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 63% chance of a named storm occurring in the last half of July. Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, and SST and wind shear patterns look pretty average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming this month. Such a storm would most likely form near the end of the month, when wind shear is expected to decline due to a weakening of the subtropical jet stream. The last time we went this long in the season without a named storm forming was in 2004, when the first storm (Alex) formed on August 1.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Lol I know how to read them...Just the fact the whole disturbance is engulfed in dry air is hampering its appearance a bit. Ill wait until tomorrow morning to see how convection builds back.


actually it is not engulfed in dry air by any means, it has a very large moisture field with it. Dry air has not hinder it very much at all and convection is building right now
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Lol I know how to read them...Just the fact the whole disturbance is engulfed in dry air is hampering its appearance a bit. Ill wait until tomorrow morning to see how convection builds back.

whats this behind it with all the banding
there is a 70 too 90% ch that this wont be 95L from this wave
Quoting Tazmanian:
there is a 70 too 90% ch that this wont be 95L from this wave


based on what? lol
you have a point but wwhat would we call the next step up
When posting comments about this model does this and that model does that, you need have a better understanding of the models so you know which ones have credibility and why. All models have a distict purpose for distinct situations. For example, saying the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC or NAM show the "storm" doing this do not all have the same meanings, reliability under the situations. See a model summary page here.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


based on what? lol

on the TAZ model lol
Sorry i did not make myself clear......this blob has very little chance at all as it will get tore apart very quickly.....if another blob would be in that location in 5-7 days the conditions would be very different where the blob is now and will be going....in 5-7 days the last i looked Shear should decrease as the trough gets pinched off the Bermuda and Azores High that become one and gets stronger......
funny how this blog works, this wave was talked up to hype unknown yesterday, now the NHC is actually giving it potential to develop and everyone is taking a complete 180 on it lmao

its rather comical actually
Wedge of dry air in front of it, but other then that it does have a good bit of moisture around it.

Quoting Acemmett90:
yah where is drak the season just got active


We don't even have an invest yet. Even if it did become an invest it doesn't look to good down the road. The first thing it needs to do is produce some deep convection, Which it lacks right now. I will remain skeptical until This so called "disturbance" does something promising.
Hi all, been gone a few days (vacation). Well, I can see that there is STILL not much happenening tropical wise. Joe Bastardi from accuweather seems to think the tropics will pick up around the middle of August. Doesn't seem to think the west gulf coast (Texas) has much to worry about. Talks mainly of the east coast and east gulf. (close forming storms). So I guess all of us in Texas have nothing to worry about this year......hmmmmmm - any thoughts?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Sorry i did not make myself clear......this blob has very little chance at all as it will get tore apart very quickly.....if another blob would be in that location in 5-7 days the conditions would be very different where the blob is now and will be going....in 5-7 days the last i looked Shear should decrease as the trough gets pinched off the Bermuda and Azores High that become one and gets stronger......


Then I guess the NHC was just bored lol
again stop jumping the gune lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
funny how this blog works, this wave was talked up to hype unknown yesterday, now the NHC is actually giving it potential to develop and everyone is taking a complete 180 on it lmao

its rather comical actually

wow that is funny
wow this blog is hilarious

people have been wishcasting blobs with no futures for days and days now, and when we finally get something that actually has potential, the mood changes and every says it has very little chance lol
Still expanding...


Quoting KoritheMan:


That's the exact opposite of what the models are forecasting in the central and western Caribbean in 5-7 days from now.


Exactly.

Sunday:


Wednesday:

Quoting taco2me61:


Do you realy think this might have a chance mid to late next week??????

just wondering
Taco :-)



NO it has a small window to become a TD but then it will go Poof......the shear will rip it apart.
This wave isnt moving very fast, its going to take about 5 days just to get to the Islands. All models forecast the shear to be significantly less by that point
Quoting StormJunkie:
Still expanding...



got your email
sry taz i was just kidding with you
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Lol I know how to read them...Just the fact the whole disturbance is engulfed in dry air is hampering its appearance a bit. Ill wait until tomorrow morning to see how convection builds back.
I think you need to heed your own comment. Check out the water vapor loop, you will see it is not engulfed in a dry air mass. Also, if you look at the current loop of any of the satellite images you will see the convection is indeed rebuilding.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NO it has a small window to become a TD but then it will go Poof......the shear will rip it apart.


the shear will not be there, you are being very very bold and not paying much attention to the shear forecasts
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening all......small chance it might make it to TD status just before the Shear hits it hard....In 5-7 days if this was in that location we could be starring down a hurricane in just a few days.......The shear conditions are just not favorable now.......but, next week is a different story.


Evening TS!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually it is not engulfed in dry air by any means, it has a very large moisture field with it. Dry air has not hinder it very much at all and convection is building right now


It'll be moving into dry air. Also the large lower level circulation is taking in dry air. Not saying this wont develop...just saying it has some stuff to overcome.

Quoting StormJunkie:
Wedge of dry air in front of it, but other then that it does have a good bit of moisture around it.

It is also bring the moisture with it, as seen by the dry "wedge" shrinking.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NO it has a small window to become a TD but then it will go Poof......the shear will rip it apart.


What shear? Shear will be 10-15knots the whole way. Then in the Caribbean shear will be 5-10knots.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It'll be moving into dry air. Also the large lower level circulation is taking in dry air. Not saying this wont develop...just saying it has some stuff to overcome.



the dry air is moving and staying ahead of it and decreasing
Here is the July 20 shear map that i use...Big difference in forecast it appears...

Quoting btwntx08:
again stop jumping the gune lol
I am sorry to tell you this but Taz is the only one with a gune.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is the July 20 shear map that i use...Big difference in forecast it appears...



your shear map proves our point too, July 20th is next monday, by then the wave will be at 50W, where shear is much less than it is now
Quoting hunkerdown:
I think you need to heed your own comment. Check out the water vapor loop, you will see it is not engulfed in a dry air mass. Also, if you look at the current loop of any of the satellite images you will see the convection is indeed rebuilding.


Engulfed was the wrong word. That was my mistake. Although on todays visible images it was indeed drawing in dry air through the low level circulation.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NO it has a small window to become a TD but then it will go Poof......the shear will rip it apart.

You might want to read the Doc's shear map
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


the shear will not be there, you are being very very bold and not paying much attention to the shear forecasts
give it up, its just not working.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What shear? Shear will be 10-15knots the whole way. Then in the Caribbean shear will be 5-10knots.


What are you talking about.....are you kidding....LOL

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Engulfed was the wrong word. That was my mistake. Although on todays visible images it was indeed drawing in dry air through the low level circulation.

The water vapor shows it moistening up the environment
How was the long hot bike ride, TS? LOL!
Quoting TampaSpin:


What are you talking about.....are you kidding....LOL



that shear wont be there by the time this wave gets to that point

I find it funny that the statement is that hard to understand. You cant look at a shear map and see how shear is 1500 miles ahead of a system and say the shear will rip it apart when it goes there

seems you are ignoring the fact that shear will be declining
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


the dry air is moving and staying ahead of it and decreasing


I wish there was a lower level water vapor map. Thats the only dry air that im talking about lol. No need for you and hunkerdown to jump all over me.
either way it has a shot to develop, or else the NHC wouldnt have it on the TWO

doesnt mean it will develop, we just have to wait and see how conditions unfold ahead of it.
Quoting TampaSpin:


What are you talking about.....are you kidding....LOL

TS, that is a tendency map over the PAST 24 hours...
Quoting TampaSpin:


What are you talking about.....are you kidding....LOL



Did you see the shear map I JUST posted? On Sunday it has 10-15.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


your shear map proves our point too, July 20th is next monday, by then the wave will be at 50W, where shear is much less than it is now


It will be sheared apart before then...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wish there was a lower level water vapor map. Thats the only dry air that im talking about lol. No need for you and hunkerdown to jump all over me.
Not trying to jump on you, just trying to state a point, which we are all entitled to do. We are reading into the maps differently, only the future will answer this.
Quoting TampaSpin:


It will be sheared apart before then...


nevermind, we have all shown you about all the proof we can, but you can keep denying it if you want
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wish there was a lower level water vapor map. Thats the only dry air that im talking about lol. No need for you and hunkerdown to jump all over me.

oh, I was making a comment based on the maps info.
Its trying...Ill give it that.

well chaser if this really had no shot of developing the NHC would have never paid attention to it

the fact that they are means it has a shot
Quoting hunkerdown:
Not trying to jump on you, just trying to state a point, which we are all entitled to do. We are reading into the maps differently, only the future will answer this.


Well it was somewhat my fault...I was talking about a completely different map lol.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
well chaser if this really ahd no shot of developing the NHC would have never paid attention to it

the fact that they are means it has a shot


I never said it didnt have a shot. I actually believe that it does have a shot.
Why are you in the mood to argue this morning, TS? Is something the matter? Burn and Chaser are attempting to make you abreast of something of which your currently very much overwhelmingly oblivious to accepting. :)


Deep-Layer Wind Shear - North Atlantic - Latest Available - Large Scale
yup it does have a shot

simple math, the forecast model you showed for the wind shear, shows the shear starts to lessen significantly on Sunday

At that point the wave will still be well east of the islands. By the time it gets to the Islands on Wednesday your map shows the shear very favorbale

All forecasts that forecast shear show the same thing, it is pretty easy to see that.
Quoting hunkerdown:
TS, that is a tendency map over the PAST 24 hours...


I know that is a tendency map and what is the tendency map show it will be hitting.....the shear is increasing...by Sunday the shear will relax very quick but by then very little will be left of it.......Shear of 40-50 will tear that apart in 6 hours......
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Why are you in the mood to argue this morning, TS? Is something the matter? Burn and Chaser are attempting to make you abreast of something of which your currently very much overwhelmingly oblivious to accepting. :)


Tell me your kidding.........LMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:


I know that is a tendency map and what is the tendency map show it will be hitting.....the shear is increasing...by Sunday the shear will relax very quick but by then very little will be left of it.......Shear of 40-50 will tear that apart in 6 hours......


Tampa that wave will not be at the Islands until Wednesday. I have a feeling you are talking about the wave at 45W and not the wave at 32W

The wave at 32W will not reach the islands until Wednesday.
Ah that has to be it lol, you are talking about the wave at 45W instead

well yea that wave is dead to rights, shear will destroy it

the wave at 32W is moving slower than the wave ahead of it, and will take 5 days to reach the islands.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Tell me your kidding.........LMAO


I'm not actually; therefore, that would make this whole situation that much more funnier, wouldn't you think so? LMAO.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I'm not actually; therefore, that would make this whole situation that much more funnier, wouldn't you think so? LMAO.

WS & TS this is not a time i think you want to get banned so save it for later in the season
Quoting TampaSpin:


What are you talking about.....are you kidding....LOL



I have to be with Tampa on this one. We have been stuck in this Pattern since Late May. Which is a Ridge over the South-Central US blocking The Tropical Waves that provide The Gulf Coast with Typical Afternoon Thunderstorms that gives us the rain we need, That Stubborn Sub-Tropical Jet over the Caribbean shearing anything that comes near it, and a Strong Ridge in the Atlantic creating unfavorable Trade Winds at the Surface in The Caribbean. The bottom line is that we need to see a BIG Pattern Change before we can see any serious Tropical Trouble in the Atlantic. That's the reality, and if you are an inpatient person then I suggest you find another Hobby other than Tracking Storms in the Atlantic Basin because there are no reliable sources of information that suggests that a Major Pattern shift is on the way for the Atlantic in the next 2 weeks.

That's just my thoughts on the situation.
Looks to me like the shear might be lower if it can stay below about 17 - 18N. If it gets too far N it is going to have a hard time avoiding some serious shear problems. Also going to depend a lot on exactly where lower pockets of shear might be at the time.
Quoting Acemmett90:

WS & TS this is not a time i think you want to get banned so save it for later in the season


I do not, but let's face it, this whole situation is quite astounding thus far, that's for damn sure.
all models shown shear weakening in the carribean ounce the wave or what ever it is there will in less shear ts doesn't know he just can't admit it
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


I have to be with Tampa on this one. We have been stuck in this Pattern since Late May. Which is a Ridge over the South-Central US blocking The Tropical Waves that provide The Gulf Coast with Typical Afternoon Thunderstorms that gives us the rain we need, That Stubborn Strong Sub-Tropical Jet over the Caribbean shearing anything that goes near it, and a Strong Ridge in the Atlantic creating strong Trade Winds at the Surface in The Caribbean.

We need a BIG Pattern Change before we can see any serious Tropical Trouble in the Atlantic. That's the reality, and if you are an inpatient person then I suggest you find another Hobby other than Tracking Storms in the Atlantic Basin because there are no reliable source of information that suggests that a Major Pattern change is on the way.

That's just my thoughts on the situation.


And what has been said by over 50 people in here tonight and what we are trying to explain is that all shear forecast models are forecasting that change to occur over the next 5 days.


From the Dr's Blog
This is the July 31 forecast
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


I have to be with Tampa on this one. We have been stuck in this Pattern since Late May. Which is a Ridge over the South-Central US blocking The Tropical Waves that provide The Gulf Coast with Typical Afternoon Thunderstorms that gives us the rain we need, That Stubborn Strong Sub-Tropical Jet over the Caribbean shearing anything that goes near it, and a Strong Ridge in the Atlantic creating strong Trade Winds at the Surface in The Caribbean.

We need a BIG Pattern Change before we can see any serious Tropical Trouble in the Atlantic. That's the reality, and if you are an inpatient person then I suggest you find another Hobby other than Tracking Storms in the Atlantic Basin because there are no reliable source of information that suggests that a Major Pattern change is on the way.

That's just my thoughts on the situation.
I am glad you added that last disclaimer sentence.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I do not, but let's face it, this whole situation is quite astounding thus far, that's for damn sure.

i agree with you but lets keep this civil
Quoting weatherwatcher12:


From the Dr's Blog
ahhhh, thats for July 31, 14 days from now...we are discussing 7 days from now.
NO im talking about the 30W blob.....maybe this will show you all.....WOW i give....

Link
Quoting hunkerdown:
ahhhh, thats for July 31, 14 days from now...we are discussing 7 days from now.

Yeah. I was trying to show that some sort of change is on the way
Quoting TampaSpin:
NO im talking about the 30W blob.....maybe this will show you all.....WOW i give....

Link


You still are not understanding the point. That shear is forecasted to lessen dramatically over the next 5 days, chaser showed you the shear map. This wave will take 5 days to reach the islands.
Quoting TampaSpin:
NO im talking about the 30W blob.....maybe this will show you all.....WOW i give....

Link
And that is a map from the 11th to the 17th...
nevermind Im going to bed soon anyway lol

you could tell TS that 2 + 2 = 4 and he wouldnt believe you at this point lol

waiting to see what the NHC says at 2am, but I dont expect too much change
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


And what has been said by over 50 people in here tonight and what we are trying to explain is that all shear forecast models are forecasting that change to occur over the next 5 days.


I will have to see it to believe it. The models have been forecasting a Change for weeks now, and The Change has never came.
Quoting hunkerdown:
And that is a map from the 11th to the 17th...


And look at the shear as it incrases Eastward as your blob moves westward....OMG....NITE All.
Quoting TampaSpin:


And look at the shear as it incrases Eastward as your blob moves westward....OMG....NITE All.


TS that shear is not going to continue to expand eastward and the wave at 32W is still over 1500 miles from that shear

talk about OMG LMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:


And look at the shear as it incrases Eastward as your blob moves westward....OMG....NITE All.

guess he didn read my post WS lol grow up TS stop acting like a teenage girl lol
This is hilarious to just sit and watch :)
Yup, thank God he did. Alright guys, the moral of story, let's patiently wait until early next week to see who on here tonight was right and who was wrong, OK? Then shortly there after, bragging rigths will come into full play, alright clan? :)
Quoting TampaSpin:


And look at the shear as it incrases Eastward as your blob moves westward....OMG....NITE All.
And that has what bearing for 5-7 days from now...the wave is not moving at light speed.
Quoting Orcasystems:
This is hilarious to just sit and watch :)


hey orca, 2 + 2 = 4, you do believe me right? lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


You still are not understanding the point. That shear is forecasted to lessen dramatically over the next 5 days, chaser showed you the shear map. This wave will take 5 days to reach the islands.


But before 5 days what happens......it will be poof.......Nite everyone.......happy blob watching.....
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


hey orca, 2 + 2 = 4, you do believe me right? lol

last time i checked it does
Quoting Orcasystems:
This is hilarious to just sit and watch :)
Again, thats cause you have the halo :)
Quoting TampaSpin:


But before 5 days what happens......it will be poof.......Nite everyone.......happy blob watching.....


poof from what exactly? not from shear that is for sure. All forecasts have the shear lessening in its path as long as it doesnt move too fast
Quoting TampaSpin:


But before 5 days what happens......it will be poof.......Nite everyone.......happy blob watching.....

you are about to go POOF yourself if you keep this up
Quoting TampaSpin:


But before 5 days what happens......it will be poof.......Nite everyone.......happy blob watching.....
better question, how many games did it take for the Phils to BEAT the Rays ?
This whole situation is pretty funny

I will go with what the NHC says, pretty safe bet there lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


hey orca, 2 + 2 = 4, you do believe me right? lol


I believe everyone on here (sort of).
Thats why I read 456's blog, to see whats really happening :)
Quoting Acemmett90:

guess he didn read my post WS lol grow up TS stop acting like a teenage girl lol


Hadn't added no one to my ignor list for a while......thanks.
Quoting TampaSpin:


And look at the shear as it incrases Eastward as your blob moves westward....OMG....NITE All.


lol Tampa your right. They need to look at the Water Vapor Loop of the Central Atlantic and they will realize that that so called disturbance is making a B-Line to the Shear.
shear ways away from the aoi but the time it gets there the shear will be a lot less omg lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


I believe everyone on here (sort of).
Thats why I read 456's blog, to see whats really happening :)


lol yea I agree and if you look back to earlier he is in the camp of shear lessening dramatically in a few days
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
This whole situation is pretty funny

I will go with what the NHC says, pretty safe bet there lol

we shold be able to decide who gets banned but their would end up bieng knowone on the blog lol
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


lol Tampa your right. They need to look at the Water Vapor Loop of the Central Atlantic and they will realize that that so called disturbance is making a B-Line to the Shear.


the wave is at 32W, it isnt moving quickly. Again I think you are looking at the wrong tropical wave. The bad shear isnt until about 55W
TS you are now on my ignore list
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


lol yea I agree and if you look back to earlier he is in the camp of shear lessening dramatically in a few days


I would have to agree with you... thats what he says. He is also a Weather Forecaster by trade.. one would have to assume his remarks are based on training and experience... others on here.. not so much.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would have to agree with you... thats what he says. He is also a Weather Forecaster by trade.. one would have to assume his remarks are based on training and experience... others on here.. not so much.


yup agreed, so I will go with him lol

either way we will see what happens, I would think the NHC thinks this has a shot or else it wouldnt be on the TWO
Read the bottom of my update today at 12pm.....

Link
and especially the way they worded it

slow develop is possible over the next few days, if they really felt it would get blasted by shear in a few days they would certainly not have written that

tells me their thinking is shear backs off around the islands too



the wave is at 32W, it isnt moving quickly. Again I think you are looking at the wrong tropical wave. The bad shear isnt until about 55W

WOW
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hadn't added no one to my ignor list for a while......thanks.


lol... Ace is a Troll Tampa. The only reason I don't ignore most trolls is because I find them highly entertaining.
Posted by: Weather456,10:30 AM GMT on July 15, 2009

Tropical Update


I continue to watch several strong tropical waves but none is showing signs of development as yet. QuikSCAT last night and this morning continue to show one of these vigorous waves near 30W, possess a low level circulation and thus should be watch as it head west. This morning satellite imagery showed few shower activity along any of these features due to warmer sea surface temperatures and some dust. Most models expect this tropical wave to head west and should reach the islands by Sunday. Most of the computer models are now backing down shear, and along with dispersing dust and progressively warmer waters, these features now stand a chance even in the Caribbean. I will continue to monitor these features
No bragging allowed until all caps are facing forward.... and proper english is used!! LOL
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


lol... Ace is a Troll Tampa. The only reason I don't ignore most trolls is because I find them highly entertaining.

label me what you want but i also find this blog very entertaning
i only go off topic becuase eveone does it
Throughout the day, I have noticed that the low-level vorticity signature has strengthened which has lead to a better defined low-level circulation forming. Starting to show signs of organization.


Figure 1 - Wave Tracking 850MB Vorticity
(Source: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones)
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Throughout the day, I have noticed that the low-level vorticity signature has strengthened which has lead to a better defined low-level circulation forming. Starting to show signs of organization.


Figure 1 - Wave Tracking 850MB Vorticity
(Source: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones)


Yeah, that's one of the things I've been noticing. The wave's strongest vorticity is at 850 mb, typical of healthy waves.
1611. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N29W TO 13N32W TO 7N32W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED E OF ITS 16/1800 UTC
SURFACE ANALYSIS POSITION TO COINCIDE WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W
Quoting JRRP:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N29W TO 13N32W TO 7N32W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED E OF ITS 16/1800 UTC
SURFACE ANALYSIS POSITION TO COINCIDE WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION!!! ok
95% of this blog are trolls, most of which can't speak proper english, yet still expect to be taken seriously...
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


lol... Ace is a Troll Tampa. The only reason I don't ignore most trolls is because I find them highly entertaining.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Yup, thank God he did. Alright guys, the moral of story, let's patiently wait until early next week to see who on here tonight was right and who was wrong, OK? Then shortly there after, bragging rigths will come into full play, alright clan? :)


There's very few statements that I read on here that really blow my mind, but this one takes the cake so far. Forecasting is about trying to keep people safe by using scientific cooperation. Its NOT about bragging rights and scores. Thats just a completely irresponsible view towards forecasting and what we try to accomplish here on the blogs and to be quite frank, if you hold that attitude, I hope you never become a forecaster since that will cloud your judgment.
Quoting Houstonian:
95% of this blog are trolls, most of which can't speak proper english, yet still expect to be taken seriously...

thank you and i am not a troll
from NHC

regarding wave at 32 n

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N29W TO 13N32W TO 7N32W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED E OF ITS 16/1800 UTC
SURFACE ANALYSIS POSITION TO COINCIDE WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W.


UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED NEAR THE ITCZ AND ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING
FROM 18N29W TO 13N32W TO 7N32W.

I have heard stories about Houstonian, he is the epitome of a troll

He will blast every single person in here whether they have credentials or they dont
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I have heard stories about Houstonian, he is the epitome of a troll

He will blast every single person in here whether they have credentials or they dont

i only blast people who blast me
have you people heard the saying an eye for an eye
By the way the waves looken better and better by the half hours
No real change:


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 170540
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
1622. IKE
...
DMAX comes up in about 2-3 hours from now

I am not staying up for that lol, just want to see what the NHC says at the TWO
No real changes by the NHC.
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
This is too funny... I think you guys take blogging way too seriously. Just let people post what they think will happen and you can rebuttle all you want. It seems to get so personal here. Even I am guilty of taking a stab at WeatherStudent earilier today but I certainly only meant it from what I was seeing, not as an attack on his character. A friend of mine does the blog moderating for NBC Universal and she is amazed how hateful people are when hiding behind a cartoon avatar. I guess that's what the ignore list is for, but then you miss out on all the excitement!
yea that is expected for now

chances stay low, ok well I am off to bed

night all
Quoting Houstonian:
95% of this blog are trolls, most of which can't speak proper english, yet still expect to be taken seriously...

u r wrong....only 30% are
1629. JRRP
what is: DMAX
Quoting cchsweatherman:


There's very few statements that I read on here that really blow my mind, but this one takes the cake so far. Forecasting is about trying to keep people safe by using scientific cooperation. Its NOT about bragging rights and scores. Thats just a completely irresponsible view towards forecasting and what we try to accomplish here on the blogs and to be quite frank, if you hold that attitude, I hope you never become a forecaster since that will cloud your judgment.


I will not reply back rudely to that post of yours there, WeatherMan. I'll let it slide underneath the table and I'll pretend as if I never actually came across it, all because of the huge dose of tremendous respect and impeccable admiration that I have towards you on here, OK? :)
and now i will ingore u haha
DMAX = Originated in Jaimaica and refers to the "The Maximum" about of blogging that will occur at specified time intervals given what is said from the NHC. Usually every 6 hours or when a new discussion is put out by our friends in Miami.
Quoting hurricanefiend85:
DMAX = Originated in Jaimaica and refers to the "The Maximum" about of blogging that will occur at specified time intervals given what is said from the NHC. Usually every 6 hours or when a new discussion is put out by our friends in Miami.

no its not...d max is a burst (big burst) sometimes in convection that gets the wave going and happens before sunrise which is happening right about now
Quoting JRRP:
what is: DMAX


DMAX is the diurnal maximum, and occurs at nighttime over the ocean waters when ocean temperature is warmer than air temperature. Because warm air is less dense than cold air, it will rise until it encounters air that is as warm or warmer than itself, at which point it will begin to sink, creating subsidence. This is why disturbances over the tropics tend to gain an increase in convection at nighttime, and why developing disturbances (and sometimes, even newly-formed tropical cyclones) struggle to intensify and/or lose convection, because during the day the air temperature is warmer than the ocean temperature, which creates an overall lack of instability. This latter cycle is referred to as the diurnal convective minimum.

Both the DMIN and DMAX peak before sunrise and sunset, respectively.
umm... Hopefully the childish bickering is done on here, because the wave is looking better and better as I type this. This may actually be something we have to watch here in Florida and all over the east coast heck even the gulf!

I have a feeling tommrow night there could be a depression forming, then after that it's all in mother natures hands.. Good night people... Btw Tampaspin was just pulling you guys legs.. He was kidding 
i wrote it already lol
Quoting Funkadelic:
umm... Hopefully the childish bickering is done on here, because the wave is looking better and better as I type this. This may actually be something we have to watch here in Florida and all over the east coast heck even the gulf!

I have a feeling tommrow night there could be a depression forming, then after that it's all in mother natures hands.. Good night people... Btw Tampaspin was just pulling you guys legs.. He was kidding 

The Caribbean may want to keep an eye on this too
Quoting KoritheMan:


DMAX is the diurnal maximum, and occurs at nighttime over the ocean waters when ocean temperature is warmer than air temperature. Because warm air is less dense than cold air, it will rise until it encounters air that is as warm or warmer than itself, at which point it will begin to sink, creating subsidence. This is why disturbances over the tropics tend to gain an increase in convection at nighttime, and why developing disturbances (and sometimes, even newly-formed tropical cyclones) struggle to intensify and/or lose convection, because during the day the air temperature is warmer than the ocean temperature, which creates an overall lack of instability. This latter cycle is referred to as the diurnal convective minimum.

Excellent definition there, of that terminology that is. :)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Excellent definition there, of that terminology that is. :)


Thanks, but I would not have learned it had it not been for this excellent community. :)

Good night all, I'm out. We'll see what our wave does tomorrow. Still not expecting any significant development prior to 75W, though. If I'm wrong, so be it.
It almost looks as if the wave is sucking up the weaker one in front of it... The moisture is building up and as of 2am est d-max seems to be helping it
still i wrote before u hahaha
Quoting KoritheMan:


DMAX is the diurnal maximum, and occurs at nighttime over the ocean waters when ocean temperature is warmer than air temperature. Because warm air is less dense than cold air, it will rise until it encounters air that is as warm or warmer than itself, at which point it will begin to sink, creating subsidence. This is why disturbances over the tropics tend to gain an increase in convection at nighttime, and why developing disturbances (and sometimes, even newly-formed tropical cyclones) struggle to intensify and/or lose convection, because during the day the air temperature is warmer than the ocean temperature, which creates an overall lack of instability. This latter cycle is referred to as the diurnal convective minimum.

Both the DMIN and DMAX peak before sunrise and sunset, respectively.


Great explaination. Thanks. I learned something new. :)
wave keeps getting better each new image
anyways nite y'all lets c what will happen in the morning..
G'nite all, I'll be back on in the AM. Sweet dreams and God bless, folks. :)
we have an invest? code yellow?
1647. 7544
well we are now in dmax and wave no 2 at 32 west seems to be gaining more convection wave no 1 at 50 w isnt showing much so imo wave no 2 is the favoite to be 95l and soonLink

also note the new cmc run drops the sw fla storm it showed earlier today not surpised there
Quoting tennisgirl08:
we have an invest? code yellow?

yes it became yellow at 8 pm but its not an invest just yet maybe today it will
Quoting tennisgirl08:
we have an invest? code yellow?

No invest. Probably wont be one until Sunday.
Quoting 7544:
well we are now in dmax and wave no 2 at 32 west seems to be gaining more convection wave no 1 at 50 w isnt showing much so imo wave no 2 is the favoite to be 95l and soonLink

also note the new cmc run drops the sw fla storm it showed earlier today not surpised there


prove it?
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


I have to be with Tampa on this one. We have been stuck in this Pattern since Late May. Which is a Ridge over the South-Central US blocking The Tropical Waves that provide The Gulf Coast with Typical Afternoon Thunderstorms that gives us the rain we need, That Stubborn Sub-Tropical Jet over the Caribbean shearing anything that comes near it, and a Strong Ridge in the Atlantic creating unfavorable Trade Winds at the Surface in The Caribbean. The bottom line is that we need to see a BIG Pattern Change before we can see any serious Tropical Trouble in the Atlantic. That's the reality, and if you are an inpatient person then I suggest you find another Hobby other than Tracking Storms in the Atlantic Basin because there are no reliable sources of information that suggests that a Major Pattern shift is on the way for the Atlantic in the next 2 weeks.

That's just my thoughts on the situation.


Hmmmm? NWS Lake Charles

LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS TO FIRE UP DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT MOIST FLOW OFF THE
GULF WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SEABREEZE TYPE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEXT WEEK
679
TCNA21 RJTD 170600
CCAA 17060 47644 MOLAVE(0906) 08196 11226 14244 235// 93111=

06:00 AM UTC Jul 17
STS Molave (0906)
19.6N 122.6E
Dvorak Intensity T3.5
with convection expanding and if it persists then will have an invest sometime today and if not sunday for sure imo
btw theres a huge wave in western africa
and our aoi
ooops here it is



Looking better than I expected...

Dry air to the front is being pinched off, and a lot of cyclonic flow in the moisture. Still embedded in the ITCZ, needs to peel itself off and gain some latitude.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hmmmm? NWS Lake Charles

LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS TO FIRE UP DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT MOIST FLOW OFF THE
GULF WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SEABREEZE TYPE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEXT WEEK


We have been very dry for the past Month and a Half because the Deep Layered Ridge was parked right over LA. Any rain that we have gotten over the past week has been from a stalled front. Not from a Tropical Wave. Also, do you see the thing at the top that says "long term"? I don't put too much faith in forecasts that are beyond 72 Hours or that are considered "Long Term". Also, if that's right that would mean relief for Western LA. But what about Southern Texas where the deep layered ridge is now parked? Where's there rain? They can't get it because the ridge is blocking the chance of rain for them which is Tropical Waves, fronts, UL disturbances. No Moisture=No rain.
Quoting btwntx08:
ooops here it is


Don't you think its kind of redundant to post Satellite Images over and over again of the same thing since they automatically update?
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


Don't you think its kind of redundant to post Satellite Images over and over again of the same thing since they automatically update?

i know that but there wasn't an image for the last 50 comments so it had to be brought up at least one time
officially i'm out nite all
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T0609)
15:00 PM JST July 17 2009
============================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Molave (985 hPa) located at 19.5N 122.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.5N 118.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.6N 112.9E - Tropical Depression
00Z NAM/WRF MSLP

Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


We have been very dry for the past Month and a Half because the Deep Layered Ridge was parked right over LA. Any rain that we have gotten over the past week has been from a stalled front. Not from a Tropical Wave. Also, do you see the thing at the top that says "long term"? I don't put too much faith in forecasts that are beyond 72 Hours or that are considered "Long Term". Also, if that's right that would mean relief for Western LA. But what about Southern Texas where the deep layered ridge is now parked? Where's there rain? They can't get it because the ridge is blocking the chance of rain for them which is Tropical Waves, fronts, UL disturbances. No Moisture=No rain.


UMMM? OK. I don't know what to do with your lack of faith in "Long Range" models that go all the way out to next week. But I think I can help you with your questions about south Texas. And I appologize ahead of time because its from their "long range" models. But they're talking about something that doesn't happen til next week. Guess thats why they put in their "long range" forecast. Ah well. Here it is any way.

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI...

TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN WITH
HIGH SHIFTING MORE NORTHWEST...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN MAYBE MORE TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE NORMAL/ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
TIME BUT CLOSER TO GFSX-MOS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN SCENARIO.

NWS BROWNSVILLE...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR QUITE SOME TIME WILL SLIDE WNWD
AND CENTER ITSELF OVR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

There. Hoped it helped.:) I didn't mean to start a fight. Like you said you got your opinion I got mine.

BTW. I live in Texas. ;)
Good morning.

Heavy rain pretty much the name of the game here for a lot of areas. Up to 3 or 4 inches possible in certain places apparently.

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "ISANG" has intensified further while traversing the Balintang Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
===================================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Isang (MOLAVE) located at 19.6°N 122.2°E or 140 km north northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (50 knots) with gustiness of 120 km/h (65 knots).

Warning Signals
=================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Batanes
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Apayao
4.Northern Cagayan
5.Babuyan
6.Calayan Group

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Rest of Cagayan
2.Kalinga
3.Abra
4.Mt. Province
5.Ilocos Sur

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals are now lowered.

Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm warning signals #1 & #2 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm.

Tropical Storm "ISANG" enhances the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to frequent rains over Central and Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T0609)
18:00 PM JST July 17 2009
============================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Bashi Channel

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Molave (980 hPa) located at 20.2N 122.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.6N 117.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 23.6N 112.9E - Tropical Depression
All this talk of trolls and ignores cracks me up. Some people get very possessive of this blog, and seem to forget it belongs to Dr. Masters for the purpose of sharing knowledge and keeping the public informed on all tropical weather events. I appreciate the input from everyone on here when they stick to the subject matter, and am appauled at those who use it as their own soap box to take swipes at those who are here, like myself, hoping to stay informed and learn from those with more knowledge than myself. The only "fun" thing about a tropical storm is trying to second guess mother nature and predict which direction the storm will travel. There are a whole bunch of weatherman wanna be's in the world, who like me, are learning how to decipher the models and graphs and nature of weather. For those who are more educated in the field, we may irritate you with our questions or comments, but here is your golden opportunity to educate us instead of calling us trolls and putting us on ignore. I am sure Dr. Masters would agree with me, as would Storm W and any other accredited contributor to this blog. Instead of throwing rocks at us... throw information that will help us "get it"... and your contribution to this blog will be priceless. Thank you.
my 18 yr old baby is in london today lots of rain forecasted? atl. tropics is beginning to look alittle more interesting
morning
there has not been much improvement in the strucure of the tropical disturbance in the eastern atlantic near 32W. althugh it is difficult to ascertain if a surface low exits, most of the cyclonic turning is in the mid level. the system continues to move slowly north of west, and is trying to detatch itself from the ITCZ. it is enclosed in an envelope of moisture which is enabling it to fight the dry air to it"s west. The system is under low wind shear and is travelling under marginal sst. this will only encourage very slow develoment the next few days. most of the global models are not forecasting any development from this system. as a matter of fact the GFS keeps it as an open wave. whatever happens development or not this system will bring squally weather to the islands early next week. should this system develop it may encounter very hostile conditions in the caribbean depending on how quickly it gets there. shear is forecast to weaken the next 72 -,96 hrs. even if this wave does not develop ,there is another strong wave to exit the african coaSt the next 48 hrs. Both systems will be monitored for signs of development
good morning everyone whats new with pre-95l
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning everyone whats new with pre-95l


Update here

Quoting leftovers:
my 18 yr old baby is in london today lots of rain forecasted? atl. tropics is beginning to look alittle more interesting


Yeah but the South East shouldn't be too bad.

Most of the rain will be in the North East of England and Scotland.
1675. crownwx
Latest discussion from me here at Crown Weather Services: Link
good Morning Ike look forward to your update!
Quoting crownwx:
Latest discussion from me here at Crown Weather Services: Link


Rob check out your link it does not work, bit thank you for the update and clarifications.
1678. WxLogic
Good Morning...
1679. crownwx
Quoting sporteguy03:


Rob check out your link it does not work, bit thank you for the update and clarifications.


Thanks for letting me know!! Try this: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Quoting btwntx08:
and now i will ingore u haha
So immature, some of these posters are!
good morning all,

It seams like I learned more form here last year. People provided me with wonderfull links like this. http://www.stormjunkie.com/training/vidlearnfree.html Now all I do is read because I am not a met and think that If I post somethinkg I think or ask a question some consider silly I will be called a Troll or something.
1682. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
good Morning Ike look forward to your update!


LOL....my update....lol.....

Pre95L seems to be status quo as it moves generally west.
1683. IKE
The first wave between 50-55 west seems to have flared up in the last 24 hours...shear is bad just to it's NW.
I need the rain but I hope my wish does not blow up in my face, literally. That structure is a nice structure the wave has there but convection remains a bit sparse.

1685. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
I need the rain but I hope my wish does not blow up in my face, literally.



Looks like you get rain with both waves....
Quoting fishinfool33825:
All this talk of trolls and ignores cracks me up. Some people get very possessive of this blog, and seem to forget it belongs to Dr. Masters for the purpose of sharing knowledge and keeping the public informed on all tropical weather events. I appreciate the input from everyone on here when they stick to the subject matter, and am appauled at those who use it as their own soap box to take swipes at those who are here, like myself, hoping to stay informed and learn from those with more knowledge than myself. The only "fun" thing about a tropical storm is trying to second guess mother nature and predict which direction the storm will travel. There are a whole bunch of weatherman wanna be's in the world, who like me, are learning how to decipher the models and graphs and nature of weather. For those who are more educated in the field, we may irritate you with our questions or comments, but here is your golden opportunity to educate us instead of calling us trolls and putting us on ignore. I am sure Dr. Masters would agree with me, as would Storm W and any other accredited contributor to this blog. Instead of throwing rocks at us... throw information that will help us "get it"... and your contribution to this blog will be priceless. Thank you.
Well said>>>>
1687. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Quoting IKE:
The first wave between 50-55 west seems to have flared up in the last 24 hours...shear is bad just to it's NW.


You think the second wave pre 95l will become an invest today?
the cv wave is moving 10-15mph in the recent past these early july seeds have moved faster
1690. Mikla
I don't think you are alone in this feeling. My bet is that there are hundreds of folks lurking that feel the same way. The board is a bit cliquish and breaking into any clique is always a bit daunting. But think of it this way... the worst that can happen is that you get "ignored" or someone throws a dart at your comment/question. So what?... just let it roll, you don't know these folks personally and you still have the ability to read and learn. Sometimes I think the folks that call someone a "troll" are looking for as much attention as the accused "troll"...
Quoting Autistic2:
good morning all,

It seams like I learned more form here last year. People provided me with wonderfull links like this. http://www.stormjunkie.com/training/vidlearnfree.html Now all I do is read because I am not a met and think that If I post somethinkg I think or ask a question some consider silly I will be called a Troll or something.
No real change then from the NHC.
1692. DDR
Morning,(from Trinidad)
It's been a while but the itcz is overhead,the river is swollen and scattered showers all around.
1693. IKE
Quoting Funkadelic:


You think the second wave pre 95l will become an invest today?


It could. I thought there was a chance overnight, but it didn't.
1694. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND
16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR IS LIMITING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 48W-54W
Good morning all :)
1697. IKE
6Z GFS shows a low over the Florida panhandle come Monday at 84 hrs.....

Good morning!

Looks like we may have an invest today or tommorow.

Pre-95L looks pretty healthy-ish today. I just needs to get more convection.
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS shows a low over the Florida panhandle come Monday at 84 hrs.....



Where on earth would that come from?
1700. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Where on earth would that come from?


Trough/cold front coming down...GFS may drop it on the next run...
Quoting IKE:


Trough/cold front coming down...GFS may drop it on the next run...


It's possible I guess. The weather has been strange for sure around this part of Florida. I don't feel like we've had our typical afternoon t-storms in a while. I guess it's that El Nino...
1702. K8eCane
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS shows a low over the Florida panhandle come Monday at 84 hrs.....



i think that low is also supposed to bring us more rain here on the east coast also
also as stormw mentioned, i was thinking this am that the EATL low may move north of the islands
IKE

1015mb ... that's not too bad though. Isn't it under 1010 where you would have to worry? Please correct me if I am wrong ..

thanks :)
1704. IKE
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
IKE

1015mb ... that's not too bad though. Isn't it under 1010 where you would have to worry? Please correct me if I am wrong ..

thanks :)


True...

It probably won't amount to anything tropically...
1705. IKE
Extended discussion from Mobile,AL. talks about another trough the end of next week...

"[SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BASE OF
LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT UNDER MID
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REGION...THE SOUTHERN HALF (INCLUDING MARINE AREAS)
WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME RATHER
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR INLAND ZONES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF ONE UPPER TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA WITHOUT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY (AHEAD OF THE OTHER
TROUGH)
ALLOWING A WETTER PATTERN (SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS) TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS MODERATING FROM
THE 60S AREA WIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER MID WEEK."
1706. K8eCane
Quoting IKE:


True...

It probably won't amount to anything tropically...


supposed to bring us more rain on the east coast
Thanks StormW you just emphasized what i said last nite......I was telling everyone that it had a 2 day window ton increase then shear would rip it apart starting Sunday...
1708. K8eCane
SURFACE WAVE/LOW EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUN
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST BROAD 5H TROF WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED...PULLING THE
WAVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES SO KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE SUN NIGHT.

from wilmington nc discussion

well well look at this
1710. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:
Thanks StormW you just emphasized what i said last nite......I was telling everyone that it had a 2 day window ton increase then shear would rip it apart starting Sunday...


He didn't say it would get ripped apart.

Here's what StormW said....

"""None of the computer models shows this wave developing, however, current real time wind shear from CIMSS, and the current run of the forecast wind shear maps from FSU indicate this wave to be located in a conducive environment, albeit the northern portion of this wave is sitting in a small trof axis. The wave will need to clear this axis before any possible further development can take place. Also, based on the wind shear forecast (06Z), this wave may encounter some increasing wind shear in about 42-48 hours...just enough to slow development. For this wave to survive, it needs to move due west, and remain at 15N or below. Should this wave get caught in the NW steering flow in a few days...it will encounter increasing wind shear from the NW. So, time will tell. Of course, these parameters can always change.""".......


He's saying it's future may depend on it's movement...either W or NW.

Gotta get ready for work....
I see a new Blog coming! LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:
Thanks StormW you just emphasized what i said last nite......I was telling everyone that it had a 2 day window ton increase then shear would rip it apart starting Sunday...


Lol can you stop with the shear stuff. By sunday and monday the shear is going to be light in the part of the atlantic where the wave will be. Stormw did not mention shear anyway!
Quoting IKE:


He didn't say it would get ripped apart.

Here's what StormW said....

"""None of the computer models shows this wave developing, however, current real time wind shear from CIMSS, and the current run of the forecast wind shear maps from FSU indicate this wave to be located in a conducive environment, albeit the northern portion of this wave is sitting in a small trof axis. The wave will need to clear this axis before any possible further development can take place. Also, based on the wind shear forecast (06Z), this wave may encounter some increasing wind shear in about 42-48 hours...just enough to slow development. For this wave to survive, it needs to move due west, and remain at 15N or below. Should this wave get caught in the NW steering flow in a few days...it will encounter increasing wind shear from the NW. So, time will tell. Of course, these parameters can always change.""".......


He's saying it's future may depend on it's movement...either W or NW.

Gotta get ready for work....


I didn't say Storm said it would get ripped apart i said that....
1714. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


I didn't say Storm said it would get ripped apart i said that....


...here's what you said....

"""Thanks StormW you just emphasized what i said last nite......I was telling everyone that it had a 2 day window ton increase then shear would rip it apart starting Sunday...""".....

That reads like you think he agrees with what you said....
Oh well......the models all agree with you all trying to wish Ana........good luck.
GEAUX Tigers!

Quoting TampaSpin:
Oh well......the models all agree with you all trying to wish Ana........good luck.


Lol whatever dude, you have succesfully sheared the blog


Not too promising... August could get hairy.

Pat, I think it's time for Yukon.
WOOT StormSurgeon!! Tiger fan here as well.
Imo shear will rip it apart once it reaches 55w.


Quoting CaneWarning:


Where on earth would that come from?

its should be renamed the ghost model
Quoting alaina1085:
WOOT StormSurgeon!! Tiger fan here as well.


Isn't everybody? Where are you? Mobile here.
Quoting BenBIogger:
Imo shear will rip it apart once it reaches 55w.




It will start at 50W IMO....but, 55W for sure....the Shear is not going to relax like many are thinking...It actually will increase some before it decreases......Here is the 24hr shear tendency map.....LOOK!

Quoting TampaSpin:


It will start at 50W IMO....but, 55W for sure....the Shear is not going to relax like many are thinking...It actually will increase some before it decreases......Here is the 24hr shear tendency map.....LOOK!



Um the shear tendency maps show what shear has done in the PAST 24 hours, not what it will do in the next 24 hours
1728. NEwxguy
GM,all,I see we are arguing about shear again,the usual debate in here.
1729. IKE
I agree that it needs to go west, for now....
Im in Gonzales, LA... ABout 15 minutes away from Baton Rouge.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Isn't everybody? Where are you? Mobile here.


Univ. Miami all the way! More of a baseball guy though
Quoting alaina1085:
Im in Gonzales, LA... ABout 15 minutes away from Baton Rouge.


I have a lot of family in Tiger Town (BR). Hope to get that way soon.
Quoting Funkadelic:


Univ. Miami all the way! More of a baseball guy though


The Canes are cool. LSU fans are loving baseball about now. Oops, I forgot, this is a weather blog.....LOL
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
Quoting IKE:
According to the 6Z GFS...shear to the yellow-circled blob's west, should left out over time...


That is what has been predicted for a few days now. Which, that is not good. A favorable environment, and this thing will strengthen.
new shear map out, 60 knots of shear NE of the Islands is gone and the rest of the shear has started to retreat slightly
Quoting alaina1085:
Im in Gonzales, LA... ABout 15 minutes away from Baton Rouge.


I once lived near sorrento. I used to travel to a restaurant in gonzalez called Sno's
seems like the cv system does has some kind spin going on. get that spin nearby s. florida then we got problems. out there not for a while.
Quoting BenBIogger:


I once lived near sorrento. I used to travel to a restaurant in gonzalez called Sno's


If you make it to Mobile, hit Wintzells and order the oyster sampler......pure heaven.
K-S-U WILDCATS!!!!
Made it to our 1st Post Season!

Tampa - That low is well south of were your sheer map was showing creased sheer.
Talk about a huge ridge...Euro gets it to 600 dm out in the Atlantic! It's 240 hours out, but still very impressive.

Quoting NoNamePub:
K-S-U WILDCATS!!!!
Made it to our 1st Post Season!

Tampa - That low is well south of were your sheer map was showing creased sheer.


dont even bother trying to convince him, its a waste of time
Its so dry, that a farmer threw his cigarrete of his tractor and the whole farm blew up like gasoline was sprayed on the field....lol
Quoting StormSurgeon:


If you make it to Mobile, hit Wintzells and order the oyster sampler......pure heaven.


I don't live in Louisiana anymore. I currently live in Miami.

But, I still have relatives near mobile and most likely return for just a week during winter.
Looks like a NOLA/Mobile strike from the system at 35W lol
Not to bring up Abrams, but she basically just wrote off the African wave in the first sentence she said in the tropical update.

"Doesn't really look like this thing is going to turn into much, and really affect us."

1719. Cotillon

Can you please explain the map to me...I understand the green in the El Nino..correct? But what is the orange and does it disappear beacause of the El Nino?

Why because of the map can August get hairy?

Sorry so many questions...just trying to learn.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
1719. Cotillon

Can you please explain the map to me...I understand the green in the El Nino..correct? But what is the orange and does it disappear beacause of the El Nino?

Why because of the map can August get hairy?

Sorry so many questions...just trying to learn.


It's a MJO map. Basically, the green is conducive to cyclogenesis, and the orange is the opposite.

It's just another cycle which factors into whether it's favourable for a storm to grow. Last year it appeared to be very important, this year hard to say.
Recent ASCAT pass

Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a NOLA/Mobile strike from the system at 35W lol


Oh no! Guess I better board up!
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Oh no! Guess I better board up!


lol
New Blog
1668- MR,FISHINFOOL 33825

Finally someone that makes sense here,thank Mr.Fishinfool,agree,100%. The name calling here is outrageous and disrespectful. This is a weather blog to exchange ideas and inform the public including those that doesn't have the knowledge but that are interested in the subject.
1668. Great post. I'm sure all the rational people on here will agree.