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Redoubt volcano unlikely to have a major climate impact

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on March 24, 2009

Alaska's Redoubt Volcano continues to erupt, with the latest blast coming just after midnight Eastern time (7:41pm AKDT). The latest eruption threw ash 50,000 feet into the air, but the ash has settled to the ground and the ashfall advisory for cities to the north and northwest of Anchorage such as Talkeetna has expired. Redoubt is located about 100 miles southwest of Alaska's most populous city, Anchorage. The prevailing southerly winds deposited a swath of ash about 200 miles long to the north of the volcano (Figure 1). Redoubt last erupted between December 1989 - April 1990, and its ash clouds presented a major hazard to aviation. On December 16, 1989, Redoubt's eruption spewed ash into the air to a height of 14,000 m (45,000 ft) catching KLM Royal Dutch Airlines flight 867, a Boeing 747 aircraft, in the plume. All four engines stalled and the aircraft plummeted 13,000 feet before the pilot was able to restart the engines and land safely in Anchorage. The total costs to the aviation industry from the 1989 - 1990 eruption were about $100 million. Eighty percent of these costs were due to damaged equipment. For more information on the Redoubt eruption, check out the Alaska Volcano Observatory home page.


Figure 1. Ash on the snow to the north of Alaska's Mt. Redoubt crater in this true color image from NASA's Terra satellite. Image taken 21:49 GMT March 23, 2009. Image credit: Johnathan Dehn, Geographic Information Network of Alaska..


Redoubt's effect on the climate should be minimal
Many historic volcanic eruptions have had a major cooling impact on Earth's climate. However, Redoubt is very unlikely to be one of them. To see why this is, let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. As one can see from a plot of the solar radiation reaching Mauna Loa in Hawaii (Figure 2), the Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Volcanic eruptions cause this kind of climate cooling by throwing large amounts of sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere. This gas reacts with water to form sulphuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective, and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight.


Figure 2. Reduced solar radiation due to volcanic aerosols as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere. Upper-level winds in the stratosphere tend to flow from the Equator to the poles, so sulfur aerosols from equatorial eruptions get spread out over both hemispheres. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features pole-ward-flowing, sinking air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere or get spread out around the entire globe. Redoubt is located near 59° north latitude, far from the tropics, and thus is unlikely to be able to inject significant amounts of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere. Furthermore, the previous 1989 - 1990 eruption of Redoubt (Figure 3) put only about 1/100 of the amount of sulfur into the air that the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo did, according to the TOMS Volcanic Emissions Group. We can expect the current eruption of Redoubt to be similar in sulfur emissions to the 1989 - 1990 eruption, and have an insignificant impact on global climate.


Figure 3. Amount of sulfur gases put into the air by recent volcanic eruptions. Note that the 1989 eruption of Redoubt put only 1/100 the amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the air that the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo did. Image credit: TOMS Volcanic Emissions Group.

For more information
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail. One interesting quote from the article: There can be some exceptions to the tropics-only rule, and at least one high latitude volcano appears to have had significant climate effects; Laki (Iceland, 1783-1784). The crucial factor was that the eruption was almost continuous for over 8 months which lead to significantly elevated sulphate concentrations for that whole time over much of the Atlantic and European regions, even though stratospheric concentrations were likely not particularly exceptional.

scienceblog.com has an interesting article about the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century--the 1912 eruption of Alaska's Mt. Novarupta, located in the same chain of volcanoes as Mt. Redoubt. According to a NASA computer model, Novarupta's climate-cooling aerosols stayed north of 30°N latitude, and did not cause global cooling. However, the model indicates that the eruption may have indirectly weakened India's summer monsoon, producing an abnormally warm and dry summer over northern India.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Luckily the Ash Plume has stayed west and North of Anchorage
Thanks for the update Jeff, that will answer some of the questions asked in the previous blog.
Very interesting... Tampa has been on Volcano watch for a VERY long time and now he can actually talk about it really happening
An additional factor is that the Monitoring station is in Hawaii, 2 jet streams south of this eruption. Is there a chance this will help the Arctic Ice Pack, even if it doesnt cool the globe?
Is it having an effect on radiation north of the polar jet? Do we have instruments up there?
I would like to see that graph.
Will be interesting to see how long this eruption cycle lasts and what if any effect it has on Hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Still some activity around the ring of fire

Magnitude Location Time
5.2 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 1 hour ago Map
4.8 Southern California 2 hours ago Map
5.2 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 9 hours ago
This past weekend, I finished re-editing Experience Hurricane Ike in HD. Clicking the link takes you directly to the YouTube broadcast.

I also re-edited Experience Hurricane Dolly in HD back in January. Both videos play pretty well. I've gotten some nice comments on them.

Right now, I'm working on "Experience the Preparation for Hunting Hurricanes." It will be released June 1st and will include, what hopes to be, very interesting and entertaining video footage. The opening of the show is already edited...and I'm taking alot of time with this video so that it plays as much like a reality TV show as possible.

More later---
Nice job MR. Oz, you are one crazy man to want to get in the path of those storms. I like the assortment of add on protection used during Ike. All you needed was a hockey stick and the wardrobe would have been complete :o)



trying to figure out how to post a picture of the delta 2 gps rocket launch last night!!!!
Quoting CycloneOz:
This past weekend, I finished re-editing Experience Hurricane Ike in HD. Clicking the link takes you directly to the YouTube broadcast.

I also re-edited Experience Hurricane Dolly in HD back in January. Both videos play pretty well. I've gotten some nice comments on them.

Right now, I'm working on "Experience the Preparation for Hunting Hurricanes." It will be released June 1st and will include, what hopes to be, very interesting and entertaining video footage. The opening of the show is already edited...and I'm taking alot of time with this video so that it plays as much like a reality TV show as possible.

More later---


DUDE, IKE coverage is awesome! I did not sleep much during IKE even though I am in the Tampa area.....we have relatives in Spring/The Woodlands, TX.

Keep up the great work....love your 'reaper' music, too.
happy birthday too me

am 24 today
13. OGal
Happy Birthday Taz!

Brian, great job on the Ike video. Loved the music. I hope this year finds us without any big storms. I went through three here in Orlando in 2004.
Happy Bday Taz.
HBD-T

This day in history = including weather related items.

Link
Happy Birthday Taz........I wish I was 24 again..Lol (maybe not).....
Happy Birthday Taz! Great video Oz. Sometimes hard to get across just how nasty these storms can be especially when they come creeping up in the middle of the night. Which they all do around here. Rita,Humberto, then Ike. I had seen your video of Dolly before. I have to agree thats the best hurricane coverage Ive seen yet. Important to let people know that these storms are nothing to play with!
I can't remember what it was like to be one case old! ♫♫♫♫♪ (©¿©)
Happy Birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday Taz, happy birthday to you...and many more!!!
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
Happy Birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday Taz, happy birthday to you...and many more!!!



thanks
thanks evere one
Happy to you Taz!
happy birthday taz. happy weather
24. P451
Five Day QPF







Oops: Colbert wins NASA space station name contest


WASHINGTON (AP) -- NASA's online contest to name a new room at the international space station went awry. Comedian Stephen Colbert won.

The name "Colbert" beat out NASA's four suggested options in the space agency's effort to have the public help name the addition. The new room will be launched later this year.

NASA's mistake was allowing write-ins. Colbert urged viewers of his Comedy Central show, "The Colbert Report," to write in his name. And they complied, with 230,539 votes. That clobbered Serenity, one of the NASA choices, by more than 40,000 votes. Nearly 1.2 million votes were cast by the time the contest ended Friday.

NASA reserves the right to choose an appropriate name. Agency spokesman John Yembrick said NASA will decide in April, but will give top vote-getters "the most consideration."

© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.
post 24 - one word:

Deluge.
So how does the severe outbreak look?


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 204 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
cmc has gone insane with the rainfall totals look at this Link
whats with the loop Pat theres nothing there ATM. 40 inches over 6 days in such a large area seems way to much. Heres a little less agressigve GFS model but still quite scarey. Link
Thank God they didnt name it O'Reilly
Quoting Patrap:




Oops: Colbert wins NASA space station name contest


WASHINGTON (AP) -- NASA's online contest to name a new room at the international space station went awry. Comedian Stephen Colbert won.

The name "Colbert" beat out NASA's four suggested options in the space agency's effort to have the public help name the addition. The new room will be launched later this year.

NASA's mistake was allowing write-ins. Colbert urged viewers of his Comedy Central show, "The Colbert Report," to write in his name. And they complied, with 230,539 votes. That clobbered Serenity, one of the NASA choices, by more than 40,000 votes. Nearly 1.2 million votes were cast by the time the contest ended Friday.

NASA reserves the right to choose an appropriate name. Agency spokesman John Yembrick said NASA will decide in April, but will give top vote-getters "the most consideration."

2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.


ROFLMAOLOL! The power of the people! Unity, Harmony, Colbert!? Nice, Node 3 is named after a guy who makes more since than anyone on Fox News and CNN. If any of the news casters, Stephen Colbert is the one I would have named a Space Station module after, I'd laugh though if Sean Hannity won.
Serenity came in as the second choice. We need the rain here in Texas but I just don't know which estimate is the real one.
Quoting Vortex95:
whats with the loop Pat theres nothing there ATM. 40 inches over 6 days in such a large area seems way to much. Heres a little less agressigve GFS model but still quite scarey. Link


That looks like it's being measured in centimeters and is an accumulation of 6 days.
still that is quite a lot over 18 inches then.
33 Is all that rain along the equator in the Atlantic for real. I wonder if that type of moisture moved northward during the upcoming season it could be a long windy wet one.
Quoting Vortex95:
still that is quite a lot over 18 inches then.


I'm not sure how well that graphic is accurately representing the CMC predictions. I generally look at other sites for the CMC rainfall totals which are in sharp contrast to the one from fsu.Link
Drake I'm glad you cleared that up on the rain total makes more sense now.
hmmm yeah that makes it more clearer.

Will the next system coming in be worse than the current one?
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE IZILDA
22:00 PM Réunion March 24 2009
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Izilda [994 hPa] located at 22.4S 41.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM radius of the center

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
80 NM radius, extending up to 140 NM in the northern semi-circle, and up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.9S 42.6E - 45 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 23.5S 42.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.4S 41.6E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 23.1S 40.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Moderate Tropical Storm Izilda. Convection presents a curved band organization, the system is intensifying. It is tracking southeastward. Environmental conditions are favorable for intensification, the system remains under an upper levels ridge, with a good poleward inflow in the first part of period, and good outflow in the upper levels. The system is expected to track southeastward within the next 24 hours, and then its track should curve westward due to the rebuilt of the high geopotential south of the meteor.
Quoting Vortex95:
hmmm yeah that makes it more clearer.

Will the next system coming in be worse than the current one?


It appears so. The dynamics should shape up for some severe weather.
There have been some worries of a superstorm developing from this next system though I doubt that is really possible.
It says somthing about Florida getting relief from drought on NOAA by the end of the week but I do not see where it could come from.
I can't help but be amused that Gov. Bobby Jindal, in his response to Pres. Obama's stimulus bill speech, highlighted "$140 million for Volcano Monitoring" as wasteful spending, and a few weeks later we have a volcanic eruption occurring at night (and, later, on a cloudy day) that cost $100 million (in 1988 dollars) the last time it happened. To say nothing of the lives that were potentially saved. I'm curious why he didn't highlight "wasteful spending on hurricane research and flood monitoring" instead, which surely exceeds $140 million.
Quoting Vortex95:
There have been some worries of a superstorm developing from this next system though I doubt that is really possible.


Can't talk to the superstorm, but here is some food for thought.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT /IN BOTH
INTER-MODEL COMPARISON AND INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TENDENCIES/ IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH D5 /SAT MAR 28TH/.
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON D4 /FRI MAR 27TH/
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D5. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY MORE NWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
MID/SERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE D5 OR D6 /SUN MAR 29TH/.

ON D4...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN SYSTEM
WARM SECTOR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO D5 OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES EWD TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN
THAT THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE N OF THE REGION...THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE.
THEREFORE...NO AREA WILL BE DELIMITED ATTM.

BEYOND D5...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...LEAVING THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD QUITE UNCERTAIN.

..MEAD.. 03/24/2009




Hurricane Watch Net Seeks New Members

With hurricane season approaching, the various organizations that assist the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami are gearing up for what could be a very active storm season. One organization that assists the NHC is the Hurricane Watch Net (HWN). To better assist the NHC, HWN Manager Dave Lefavour, W7GOX, told the ARRL that the HWN is looking for new members. "The Hurricane Watch Net relies on volunteer operators -- our members -- who serve as our net control stations," he said. "HWN members are hams who have above-average stations, are capable of effectively conducting HF net operations and are willing to commit their time to operating in support of the HWN's mission during Net activations. The Net sessions can be long, and, in the recent absence of sunspots, pretty grueling."

Lefavour said that the HWN is looking for new members with stations that can effectively communicate with Central America and the Caribbean, Mexico and South Texas on the 20 meter band. "With the low solar activity, our Assistant Net Manager Brad Pioveson, W9FX, is very interested in finding more members that can help with Net Control Station duties on the low ends of the 40 and 80 meter phone bands," Lefavour said, "as we're having to broaden our focus from only operating on 14.325 MHz. During the 2008 hurricanes, 20 meters died after the Sun went down -- we no longer had the ability to effectively communicate with reporting stations or the National Hurricane Center. So in preparation for the 2009 hurricane season, we're open to applications from qualified amateurs who are located anywhere within North America or the Caribbean. With propagation having been so unpredictable in the past couple of years, you never know who's going to be able to hear the hurricane-affected area."
Gotta go for the day and the weather is really nice and sunny in Northern Florida with the exception of some "windy" conditions.....I'm not a pro here but it seems to me that there is pretty strong pressure gradient issue setting up along the Northern Gulf region (between the low setting up in the plains and the low swirling off of Newfoundland)...If temps stay pretty warm down here over the next few days and the front does dip down, I would not be surprised to see several tornadoes down here later in the week........
From Tallahassee NWS this afternoon....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW LIFTING NE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE GFS PV ANOMALY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND EXTENDS DOWN TO 600-700 MB. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE TWO MODELS BOTH INDICATE THE LOW DEEPENING TO AROUND 980-990 MB COME SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT BOTH THE KINEMATICS AND THE INSTABILITY
ARE LINING UP FAIRLY WELL. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THAT 3-5 DAY WINDOW AND THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


Stay safe all and we shall see what happens as the weekend approaches...........WW
Quoting Vortex95:
It says somthing about Florida getting relief from drought on NOAA by the end of the week but I do not see where it could come from.


I think I'm safe from the bad weather here in SE FL :)
2009-03-24 12:46:22 - Status Report-Redoubt

Redoubt remains at Aviation Color Code RED and Alert Level WARNING. Seismic activity at the volcano is currently relatively low, and no activity is observed in partly cloudy web camera images. Pilot reports and satellite images indicate that a steam plume is currently rising to at least 20,000 ft asl and drifting at least 40 miles to the northwest. We have no indication that the volcano is currently emitting ash, though explosive activity could resume with little or no warning.

The last explosive event occurred last night (March 23) at 7:41 pm (AKDT) and lasted for roughly seventeen minutes. The top of the ash cloud was estimated to have reached at least 50,000 ft above sea level based on National Weather Service radar. Winds in the vicinity of the volcano carried the ash cloud primarily to the west and north. Pyroclastic flows were visible traveling down the volcano's north flank in web camera images. Last night's explosive event was the sixth thus far since explosive activity began Sunday, March 22 at 10:38 PM AKDT.

Yesterday, AVO staff visited the area around Redoubt by helicopter to assess conditions and repair equipment damaged by Sunday night's eruptions. They fixed the telemetry link at AVO's observation hut, which is once again transmitting images from the web camera and data from a GPS and two seismic instruments. Clouds obscured the summit, but observers reported very large lahar and flood deposits in the Drift River Valley that likely occurred during and/or following the first five explosions. These flows, which contained ice, water, mud, and other debris, inundated the Drift River Valley and traveled more than 35 km, reaching Cook Inlet. In the middle to upper Drift River Valley, high-water marks reached 6-8 meters above the valley floor. At the AVO hut (roughly 7 miles NNW of the summit), a 6-cm thick fall deposit was observed.

A gas-measurement flight is currently en route to the volcano.
I just hope none of the bad stuff heads down here.
48. Volcano monitoring is quite important for those who live near one and with advanced notice just as with hurricanes saves many lives. Jindal probably did not know much about what he spoke of.
The GOP better pick someone else to be the head of their party other then him unless they really control what he says. Anyways back to weather.
Sans tomorrow...10-day forecast keeps so. fla. warm and dry.
No wonder they are not talking about this much their not sure its going to be that serious or if it will be according to predictions by the models. If they find it to be the latter then when they do find out they best get it out quick.
Somthing about an indian with a southern accent just makes me laugh so hard. All but the last one made sense.
i've noticed the 5 day qpf has been increaseing in amount and in area a few ours ago Central and S Fla weren't getting anything. now .01 inches isn't much but i'd like to if it expands more just how much more.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
From Tallahassee NWS this afternoon....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW LIFTING NE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE GFS PV ANOMALY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND EXTENDS DOWN TO 600-700 MB. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE TWO MODELS BOTH INDICATE THE LOW DEEPENING TO AROUND 980-990 MB COME SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT BOTH THE KINEMATICS AND THE INSTABILITY
ARE LINING UP FAIRLY WELL. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THAT 3-5 DAY WINDOW AND THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


Stay safe all and we shall see what happens as the weekend approaches...........WW
if every thing lines up could be strongest severe outbreak for the year so far still got a couple of runs to see
It would be one of the strongest for Florida in a while if it is learned to be well widespread.
I wonder if Gov. Palin agrees with Gov. Jindal? Gonna be an interesting race for Repub. presential nominee in 2012.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RIP CURRENT RISK THIS WEEK...
...GUSTY SE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 MPH. ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND AROUND 15 MPH
INLAND. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE...THEREFORE
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND.

THU-FRI...A SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEYS AND DRAG A FRONT ACROSS S GA/AL. FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS AND PSBL STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE STATE KEEPS BREEZY SE/SSE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST. SE FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BREEZY
AFTERNOON SEA BRZ. MOISTURE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY
PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S/LWR 80S THU WARMING TO THE LWR-MID
80S ON FRI...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SET OF
NE SWELLS AFFECTING THE BEACHES THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW
MOVG NEWD OUT OF THE CTRL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BEAT DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH THE UPR FLOW BECMG GNRLLY ZONAL BY SUN NGT/MON. STRONG
SFC LOW MOVG IN TANDEM WITH THE UPR FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH FL BY SAT NGT...WHICH WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY
SEWD THROUGH CTRL FL SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SAT LOOKS TO BE
DOWNRIGHT "HOT" WITH MAXES AT OR NEAR 90F UNDER GUSTY SSW-SW
FLOW...WITH A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE PSBL NR THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
THOUGH LKLY PINNED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE BEACH. EARLY SPRING DAYS CAN
SOMETIMES BE NOTORIOUSLY WARMER THAN WHAT EARLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...SO WILL KEEP TABS ON TEMP TRENDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A
BIT FOR BOTH SAT NGT (30/20...MAINLY LATE) AS WELL AS SUN (30 ALL
AREAS) AS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE BAND ASCD WITH
IT...AS WELL AS SOME MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION
OF TS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN DIURNAL TIMING. SLGTLY COOLER/DRIER
FOR MON. WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FL...THERE COULD BE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS NR LAKE OKEE MON.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FOLLOWED
06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECM WHICH DRIES AIRMASS OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL KEEP NEW DAY7 DRY AT THIS POINT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING NEAR THE
AREA AND PWATS DROPPING BELOW A HALF INCH.
PBS Nova "Extreme Ice" TV show that is on right now is very interesting
Thats unfortunate that this wont have an effect. It would be nice for a little "global cooling" to take effect haha.
69. HTV
Quoting Skyepony:

WOW! Redoubt is hangin' more ash than Groucho Marx or George Burns.
68
Nice Post Skyepony
Quoting HTV:

WOW! Redoubt is hangin' more ash than Groucho Marx or George Burns.


Don't forget Boss Limbaugh!
72. HTV
Quoting HTV:

WOW! Redoubt is hangin' more ash than Groucho Marx or George Burns.

Groucho and Snopes or no Snopes? "I love my cigar, but I take it out now and then."
That reminds me too...President Clinton also....uggggg
LOL,that's quite the ash shadow. Here's a loop. You can see lastnight's explosion.
Upper-level winds in the stratosphere tend to flow from the Equator to the poles, so sulfur aerosols from equatorial eruptions get spread out over both hemispheres. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features pole-ward-flowing, sinking air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere or get spread out around the entire globe.

Yes, but...

(there is always a but, isn't there?)

if enough ash were deposited far enough north, I expect we see an faster than normal (an eventually more extensive) ice melt later in the spring in the Arctic. Of course this will be determined as 'proof' of global warming even if the temps do not support it and consideration that the signal may be contaminated will not happen.
76. HTV
I can't think of many more appropriate "Shovel Ready" Stimulas projects than that for the Red River and the Dakotas. God Bless those folks. So Obama if your lerkin'???
AMEN!!Apoclasype-induced Misanthropic environmental nervousness!!
78. HTV
Atmo-You took the words right out of my mouth,but wasn't brave enough to mutter.


AP: Oil terminal a concern as Alaska volcano rumbles
1 hour ago


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — An Alaska volcano continued to rumble Tuesday amid new concerns that eruptions and mud flows will damage a nearby oil terminal where about 6 million gallons of crude are stored. The 10,200-foot Mount Redoubt volcano, about 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, erupted Sunday night. Since then there have been five more explosions; the latest, on Monday night, shot an ash plume into the air that was 40,000 to 50,000 feet high.
Redoubt volcano unlikely to have a major climate impact


So far !!!


Still some activitiy on the Ring of Fire.
Magnitude Location Time
6.0 New Britain region, Papua New Guinea 2 hours ago Map
4.8 Tonga 7 hours ago Map
5.2 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 13 hours ago Map


Unlike weather, sometimes the fuse is ingnited far,far away. Lets see if this volcano has more to say. ↨
Interesting story for the "Model" minded.


Volcano in Alaska may have screwed up computer models
That was a 6 down range

I should add that is the same general area that exhibited activity about 48 hours prior to the eruption associated with Redoubt.. Keep an eye on this the next few days, or sooner. This occured at 30 miles in depth. That typically will produce other events. That is deeper than the others in that area recently.
I really did not mean to kill the blog. Hopefully, you all are checking this stuff out and it is not just me or the borg.
we are da borg!!!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 1)
12:00 PM FST March 25, 2009
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category One [987 hPa] is located at 21.2S 162.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots close to the center decreasing to 35 knots in the next 6-12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 3 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM of the center in northern semi-circle
200 NM of the center in the southern semi-circle

Low level circulation center is exposed more than 1 degree to north of deep convection. Effects of shear and dry air entrainment evident. Outflow remains good to south but poor elsewhere. Jasper is currently being steered westwards by a low level ridge to the south.

Dvorak analysis based on shear yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.0, PT=2.0. FT based on MET

Thus T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

The system is currently under a 20 knot shear. Global models agree on a westerly track and weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.3S 162.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.4S 162.0E - 30 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
48 HRS: 21.4S 160.4E - 20 knots (T.D.)
thank you Hades for the info your the Wunderground unofficial non Atlantic basin cylcone corrispondent :P.
Quoting Vortex95:
thank you Hades for the info your the Wunderground unofficial non Atlantic basin cylcone corrispondent :P.


Hey Vortex....your not blog killing are ya....LOL
Well, now that we are shaking off the sand! They found TOTO clinging to a tree just south of Deadwood, SD. Boy was he pissed! Oh and now we are gonna get a "late" winter storm.
It appears a very serious severe weather event is coming Thursday and Friday.
There were 13 semi trucks blown over yesterday on I70, west of Salina Ks.
Quoting GBlet:
There were 13 semi trucks blown over yesterday on I70, west of Salina Ks.


The true windy days of Spring!
I wunder what the record is.
Quoting Patrap:


AP: Oil terminal a concern as Alaska volcano rumbles
1 hour ago


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — An Alaska volcano continued to rumble Tuesday amid new concerns that eruptions and mud flows will damage a nearby oil terminal where about 6 million gallons of crude are stored. The 10,200-foot Mount Redoubt volcano, about 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, erupted Sunday night. Since then there have been five more explosions; the latest, on Monday night, shot an ash plume into the air that was 40,000 to 50,000 feet high.

That would be Drift River... there are some awesome images on the AVO website from their fly-overs yesterday.
atmo~ Can you name any artic volcano that caused the northwest passage to open in the past due to the ash settling? I would atleast like to see the sea Ice graph compared to years in recent history with known volcanos in the northern hemisphere. Your backing that up with nothing..

Sulfur aerosols tend to cool by blocking sunlight which may cancel the effect & how dark is the ash compared to the black soot from burning resources that we know is warming the arctic 5º? After looking at pictures of both I'm not convinced soot is lighter than ash. It's worth looking at numbers.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE IZILDA
10:00 AM Réunion March 25 2009
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Izilda [991 hPa] located at 23.0S 42.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius of the center

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
80 NM radius of the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northern semi-circle and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.6S 41.9E - 45 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 23.7S 41.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.2S 41.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.1S 40.0E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
=====================
Izilda's convective activity has concentrated within the last 12 hours and has temporarily shows a low defined satellite pattern but improving again within the recent hours. Low level pattern remains however well defined (SSMIS-F17 0222z) and maximum winds of 40 knots are confirmed by last Quikscat swath (0334z). System keeps on tracking slowly south-southeastwards under the steering influence of the mid level ridge existing in its northeast then becoming stationary within the next 24-36 hours due to two opposite steering flows in relationship with the rebuilding mid-level ridge in the southwest. This subtropical ridge is expected to become the main steering flow beyond 36 hours, system is also expected to recurve west-northwestwards. Upper level jet (well showed on infrared METEOSAT-7 imagery) existing in the west and in the south of the system is expected to keep on improving the upper level poleward divergence but could become a limiting factor as the system recurves west-northwestwards (Beyond 36 hrs) linked to strengthening wind shear.
89. TampaSpin 3:31 AM GMT on March 25, 2009

It appears a very serious severe weather event is coming Thursday and Friday


extending into Saturday for nearly the same southern U.S. states.
We are going to have a very significant severe weather outbreak on Friday, and probably even into Saturday. From the SPC's latest 3 day convective outlook:

A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE
RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.


Furthermore, where I live is under a 30% chance of severe weather this far out, which is quite rare to see -- I get the feeling this area will eventually be upgraded to a High Risk.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category One [995 hPa] located at 21.1S 163.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots close to the center expected to weaken further. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 3 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM of the center in the southern semi-circle

The low level circulation center is exposed and effects of shear and dry air entrainment evident. Jasper is currently being steered westward by a low level ridge to the south.

Dvorak analysis based on shear yielding DT=MET=PT=1.5 FT based on MET.

Thus T1.5/3.0/W2.0/24HRS

The system is currently under 20 knot shear. In the short term, global models agree on a southwesterly movement before recurving the system on a northwesterly track and weakening it further.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.5S 163.0E - 30 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
24 HRS: 21.3S 162.1E - 25 knots (T.D.)


FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS..
Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~ Can you name any artic volcano that caused the northwest passage to open in the past due to the ash settling? I would atleast like to see the sea Ice graph compared to years in recent history with known volcanos in the northern hemisphere. Your backing that up with nothing..

Sulfur aerosols tend to cool by blocking sunlight which may cancel the effect & how dark is the ash compared to the black soot from burning resources that we know is warming the arctic 5º? After looking at pictures of both I'm not convinced soot is lighter than ash. It's worth looking at numbers.


Sky you are Correct. Sulfur dioxide partiticles tend to reflect sunlight causing cooling not heating. Atmo i'm not sure how you see warming occuring. Just my opinion but, i just don't see warming.
100. P451


Today's Weather Risks - Click Image to Enlarge
101. P451
Today's QPF - Click to Enlarge

TODAYS QPF

quite a large western atlantic storm out there right now. expecting a 15 second swell from it thursday and fri. here in e.cent fl. probally mostly closeouts
103. P451
Serious situation unfolding in Fargo, ND

----

FARGO, North Dakota (CNN) -- More than 1,000 volunteers rushed to fill sandbags early Wednesday as many in North Dakota tried to protect themselves from a historic floods that are expected to swamp the area.

Even at 3:30 a.m., hundreds of volunteers packed into individual sandbagging centers, an organizer said.

"There have been so many volunteers that we had to turn people away," said Ryan McEwan, a supervisor at one volunteer coordinating center. "It is very busy. They are filling sandbags as fast as they can."

Fargo city officials estimated that as many as 10,000 volunteers have come forward since Sunday to aid in a sandbagging effort that's taken over North Dakota State University's central arena, the Fargodome, and to help build levees along the now closely watched Red River.

The fear is that the Red River could overtake all previous records. As of Wednesday morning, the Red River ran at about 33 feet -- 15 feet above flood stage. A record level of 41.1 feet was set in 1897.

The record level of the river set in the April 1897 flood could be surpassed Friday, Cecily Fong of the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services said Tuesday.
104. P451
Quoting leftovers:
quite a large western atlantic storm out there right now. expecting a 15 second swell from it thursday and fri. here in e.cent fl. probally mostly closeouts


It was pushing snow back onto Cape Code and SE-most Maine yesterday afternoon.
106. CeBas
from today til Friday,there will be severe weather in Mobile,AL
Quakes shake California's southeastern desert

1 hour ago

BOMBAY BEACH, Calif. (AP) — Dozens of small earthquakes are shaking the desert of southeastern California, the day after a moderate temblor struck on the edge of the Salton Sea.

The largest of the Wednesday morning earthquakes was a magnitude-3.5 at shortly before 1 a.m., and swarms of smaller quakes continued into the morning in the sparsely populated area about 90 miles east of San Diego, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Tuesday's magnitude-4.8 quake struck before dawn near the small town of Bombay Beach.

There have been no reports of damage or injury from any of the quakes.

Scientists are closely watching the increased earthquake activity because it is near a section of the San Andreas Fault that has not broken loose in more than 300 years.
On the Net:

* http://www.usgs.gov
* http://shakemovie.caltech.edu/event?evid14433456 Always one more thing to watch out for. May be a busy year for seismic activity.
108. P451
The Second storm is looking quite ominous as of this moment!

Day 3

Day 4

Day 5

Day 6



Is the problem over insurance or hurricanes?

The state would take on storm risks under a new plan.

TALLAHASSEE - The state would take over all hurricane insurance in Florida while at the same time dismantling its property insurance and reinsurance funds under a sweeping plan that received a lukewarm reception Tuesday.

Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale, says her bill would calm the roiled property insurance market in Florida and actually allow taxpayers to save money while boosting the private sector.


Hurricanes rip into profit at Lloyd's of London
March 25, 2009


By Robert Barr

Lloyd's of London's pretax profit fell 51 percent last year under the effect of blows from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, the world's largest insurance market player said yesterday.

Pretax profit for the year was £1.9 billion (about R26.2 billion), compared with £3.85 billion recorded in 2007.
I just updated my Web Site and WU Blog if anyone would like to view.....SEVERE Weather Coming!

TampaSpins Web Link

TampaSpins WU Link
Quoting Patrap:
Interesting story for the "Model" minded.


Volcano in Alaska may have screwed up computer models


Interesting Patrap, I never knew how dependent we were on air travel to predict the weather.
River Flooding Map.....Left Click to Zoom....
Sorry i fixed it i messed up the first try:)

I log back on after being away for a few days and find you all have let the weather get completely out of control. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cyclones, severe weather outbreaks, floods, and more forecast. Come on, let's shape it up now!
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I log back on after being away for a few days and find you all have let the weather get completely out of control. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cyclones, severe weather outbreaks, floods, and more forecast. Come on, let's shape it up now!


Don't forget the near miss with an Asteroid :)
Aaaaccccckkkkkk! I missed that one.
"Ossgss
Don't forget the near miss with an Asteroid :)" Twice
2009 DD45
Mar. 2

0.2 LD

11

35 m
2009 FH
Mar. 18

0.2 LD

14

21 m
Dr. Masters,

I was very lucky to stumble across your blog yesterday morning. I am grateful for the information you have provided. As I am a tropical weather fanatic, I cannot wait to see your expertise at work during the tropical season.

Do you believe there is a correlation between the volcanic erruption and seismic activity?

Thank you for your time.
Looks like Redoubt is not done yet.......

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-25 06:30:17

The cloud from the 05:12 AKDT is not visible on radar. It is unlikely that there will be any impact from this event.

2009-03-25 06:07:51

A small explosion occurred at Redoubt volcano at 05:12 AKDT (1312 UTC). The cloud height is estimated to be about 15,000 ft and is drifting north to northwest of the volcano. The event lasted about 10 minutes.
Red Cross encourages earthquake preparedness
Desert Sun Wire Service • March 24, 2009

The more than two dozen earthquakes that struck near the Salton Sea today prompted the American Red Cross to encourage Coachella Valley residents to be prepared for a bigger earthquake that could strike at any time.



Residents should put together an earthquake kit, have a disaster plan and know their city's disaster plan, according to Randy Phillips, an instructor for the Red Cross in Riverside.

``If you're not prepared, you're going to be more apt to panic, not know what to do, what to take and trying to plan all of that in some short urgent time frame rather than being prepared and following your system,'' Phillips said.

People should also make a plan for what to do during any disaster, not just earthquakes, Phillips said.

``They should make a plan on how are they going to get out of the house, where are they going to go,'' Phillips said, adding that people should share those plans with people from out of the area in case communications are down.

People should put together a kit that contains ``at least three days worth of supplies,'' including food, water and sanitary supplies, Phillips said.

``A couple things people forget are medications, some extra clothing and some cash,'' Phillips said.

Residents should also be informed of their city's disaster plan, Phillips said.

More information about disaster preparedness can be found at the American Red Cross' Web site at www.redcross.org.


I get the feeling severe weather season is starting to ramp up.
Quoting NEwxguy:
I get the feeling severe weather season is starting to ramp up.


Things were just fine while you stayed in Florida, and you went back north and things are breaking loose all over the place. We have to blame someone. :-)
Quoting TampaSpin:


What does this graph represent?
Quoting tampabos:


What does this graph represent?


Its an AVO Webicorders - of Valcano Redoubt

It shows Seismic activity!
Does anyone have any creative ideas I can use for my Applied Climatology project? This is the assignment as written by my professor:

"A statistical analysis project which attempts to assess the association or relationship between climate and a human or physical system in North Carolina. The analysis must include at least two locations and four climate variables.
Example: Assess the relationship between climate and auto accidents in Wilmington and Asheville."


Any ideas would be greatly appreciated. I'm thinking of doing a relationship between climate and crime rates, but that seems sorta boring. I'd love to do something really interesting and unusual.

Thanks!!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its an AVO Webicorders - of Valcano Redoubt

It shows Seismic activity!


From your graph, I would assume there is a positive correlation between volcanic activity and seismic activity. Do you agree?

Also, would volcanic activity bring about seismic activity just in the immediate area, or could it bring about activity world wide?
Quoting tampabos:


From your graph, I would assume there is a positive correlation between volcanic activity and seismic activity. Do you agree?

Also, would volcanic activity bring about seismic activity just in the immediate area, or could it bring about activity world wide?


Yes in this case it is very clear on the Graph. Look at the time posted when the last Eruption was and the graph you can see the Eruption on the graph.
"It shows Seismic activity."
The thicker the line the more activity there is, it is showing you enough activity to be another steam or ash event.
Quoting natrwalkn:
Does anyone have any creative ideas I can use for my Applied Climatology project? This is the assignment as written by my professor:

"A statistical analysis project which attempts to assess the association or relationship between climate and a human or physical system in North Carolina. The analysis must include at least two locations and four climate variables.
Example: Assess the relationship between climate and auto accidents in Wilmington and Asheville."


Any ideas would be greatly appreciated. I'm thinking of doing a relationship between climate and crime rates, but that seems sorta boring. I'd love to do something really interesting and unusual.

Thanks!!


How about -
1- climate and unemployment
2- climate and carwash business
3- climate and emergency room volume
4- climate and alchohol sales

I believe you will find that NC has significant shifts in all of these based upon the weather by season and even weekly. Good luck.
101. P451 8:03 AM EDT on March 25, 2009

Please Delete your post or fix your post. It caused a widening of the screen. Thanks.
Quoting Ossqss:


Things were just fine while you stayed in Florida, and you went back north and things are breaking loose all over the place. We have to blame someone. :-)


Hey,If I can quell severe outbreaks by staying in Florida,I'll be glad to volunteer,we all have to make sacrifices.
Quoting Ossqss:


How about -
1- climate and unemployment
2- climate and carwash business
3- climate and emergency room volume
4- climate and alchohol sales

I believe you will find that NC has significant shifts in all of these based upon the weather by season and even weekly. Good luck.


Thanks for the suggestion!! My professor suggested the alcohol sales relationship too.
Quoting natrwalkn:


Thanks for the suggestion!! My professor suggested the alcohol sales relationship too.


Sounds like he has impacted the statistics recently. :)

Nice flounder pic also
Quoting Ossqss:


Sounds like he has impacted the statistics recently. :)


Well, I know some of my other professors certainly have!
Quoting natrwalkn:
Does anyone have any creative ideas I can use for my Applied Climatology project? This is the assignment as written by my professor:

"A statistical analysis project which attempts to assess the association or relationship between climate and a human or physical system in North Carolina. The analysis must include at least two locations and four climate variables.
Example: Assess the relationship between climate and auto accidents in Wilmington and Asheville."


Any ideas would be greatly appreciated. I'm thinking of doing a relationship between climate and crime rates, but that seems sorta boring. I'd love to do something really interesting and unusual.

Thanks!!
How about snowfall rates and heart attacks?
126 -- This could help a bit and is quite interesting.

Link
Compared to other recent volcanic activity, how does the latest erruption at Mt. Redoubt compare? With hurricanes and tornadoes there are different classification systems that tell us the strength or severity of the storm, do volcanoes have any such classification system?
Try this item for the volcano type/size question.

Link


This is the item that concerns me most on this type of activity. Scary stuff. This would make Redoubt look like an ant hill.

Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sky you are Correct. Sulfur dioxide partiticles tend to reflect sunlight causing cooling not heating. Atmo i'm not sure how you see warming occuring. Just my opinion but, i just don't see warming.


Sulfur dioxide particles tend to reflect sunlight in the atmosphere...as compared to clear sky. They are not pure white, therefore, they will reflect less than any snow/ice they might be deposited on.

Just my opinion but, i just don't see warming. Of the atmosphere? Me neither. Earlier melting of ice that has more non-white aerosols deposited on it than usual? A clear physical certainty if there actually are more non-white particles than usual in/on the ice.

No, I do not have any publications to list. Just intuition of albedo. Using my eyeballs comparing light reflected from one substance and another.

I will admit that the amount of ash deposited on Arctic sea ice, and the spatial coverage, is an important variable.
Quoting Ossqss:
Try this item for the volcano type/size question.

Link


This is the item that concerns me most on this type of activity. Scary stuff.

Link


Thank you for the links. I was not aware that Yellowstone was such a hot bed of seismic activity.
Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~ Can you name any artic volcano that caused the northwest passage to open in the past due to the ash settling? I would atleast like to see the sea Ice graph compared to years in recent history with known volcanos in the northern hemisphere. Your backing that up with nothing..

Sulfur aerosols tend to cool by blocking sunlight which may cancel the effect & how dark is the ash compared to the black soot from burning resources that we know is warming the arctic 5º? After looking at pictures of both I'm not convinced soot is lighter than ash. It's worth looking at numbers.


Not sure how the albedo quantitatively compares to black soot...

Soot is surely darker than ash. Ash is surely much darker than ice.
I have found that the Alaska Volcano Observatory website is a useful tool to track this latest eruption. On this website is a useful tool that describes the link between eruptions and earthquakes. I would recommend it to anyone here who is interested.

Link
I should have made it more clear that on the Alaska Volcano Observatory website, in order to view the information about recent earthquakes, you must click on the tab labeled Current Volcanic Activity, then click the Recent Earthquakes link that appears in the summary section.
black soot from burning resources that we know is warming the arctic 5º

In theory, and unproven. I am not sure I like the sediment of this subject matter. :) Speculation based upon short term sampling can be dangerous when attempting to draw long term conclusions. This planet has been impacted in many larger ways, by vitue of natural and cosmic events, than the human scape goat senario.

This now, may not be that, then. º¿ª
Ice cores interpreted from both sides of the fence. CUL8R


Link

Link


Link
You know what's ironic? The storm over the nw Atlantic is producing more convection then some of the subtropical storms we saw last year.
For anyone interested...the ordination of Msgr. Robert Gugliemone as Bishop of the Catholic Diocese of Charleston (which encompasses the entire state of South Carolina)can be viewed now @ www.catholic-doc.org....trust me: it'll be quite a show....
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL IZILDA
22:00 PM Réunion March 25 2009
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Izilda [978 hPa] located at 23.7S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM radius of the center

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
70 NM radius of the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northern semi-circle and up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.8S 42.4E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 23.7S 42.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.9S 40.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.4S 38.6E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
=====================
Convection has clearly improved around the eye, as the system goes on intensifying (CF microwave imagery F17 at 1452z). The eye remains quite irregular and a weak constraint is visible on satellite imagery. Izilda has clearly slowed down and is expected to become stationary within the next 24 hours before recurving west-northwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in its southwest. This subtropcial ridge is expected to become the main steering flow beyond 36 hours. System is also expected to recurve west-northwestwards upper level jet (well showed on infrared METEOSAT-7 imagery) existig in the west and in the south of the system expected to keep improving the upper level poleward divergence but could become a limiting factor as the system recurves west-northwestward linked to a strengthening wind shear. Izilda could before reach minimal tropical cyclone stage.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 62
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORSICANA
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND N TX OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
SURFACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
WITH 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ATOP VEERING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH -- GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING...PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

Izilda does not appear to be a major threat. The biggest concern will be flooding rains.
Gale Warning
===============
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Jasper [1000 hPa] located at 21.3S 163.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots within 60 to 150 NM of the center in the southern semi-circle. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 3 knots.
Gale Warning
===============
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Jasper [1001 hPa] located at 21.3S 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-35 knots within 60 to 150 NM of the center in the southern semi-circle. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.
so much for Jasper to become a severe tropical cyclone that was forecasted by Bureau of Meteorology on advisory.
This is neat...

"The same process that creates a mesocyclone in a tornadic thunderstorm also creates a volcanic mesocyclone in a strong volcanic plume, Chakraborty said. "What happens in tornadic thunderstorms is analogous to what happens in strong volcanic plumes."

A strong volcanic plume consists of a vertical column of hot gases and dust topped with a horizontal "umbrella." A volcanic mesocyclone sets the entire plume rotating about its axis. The mesocyclone spawns waterspouts or dust devils, and groups the electric charges in the plume to form a sheath of lightning, as was so prominently displayed in the eruption of Mount Chaiten.

The rotation of strong volcanic plumes may be verified by observations from space, the scientists report. On June 15, 1991, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines was recorded by a satellite snapping hourly images. The images show that the edge of Pinatubo's umbrella was rotating about its center, consistent with the presence of a volcanic mesocyclone.

The images also show that after rotating for a while, the umbrella lost axial symmetry and became lobate in plan view. This loss of axial symmetry is another effect of the rotation, which destabilizes the edge of the umbrella and makes it lobate, the scientists report.

Lobate umbrellas have been found in satellite images of other volcanoes, including Mount Manam in Papua New Guinea, Mount Reventador in Ecuador and Mount Okmok in the Aleutian Islands."

And more at: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-03/uoia-rik032309.php
2009-03-25 10:51:02
A small explosive event occurred at 10:17 AKDT this morning. The plume from this event was not detected by radar, indicating that it did not rise above approximately 12,000 ft asl or contained very little ash. This explosion triggered a flowage event on the north flank of the volcano as indicated by seismicity.

This event was similar to or smaller than the explosion that occurred this morning at 5:12 AKDT.
Still burping... :)
Sounds helpful-
26 Mar 2009, 0032 hrs IST, Jonathan Leake, Sunday Times, London
Text:
A European satellite is to show scientists the inner workings of Earth, from the movements of ocean currents to the location of oil
deposits.

Its data will enable scientists to detect the flows of molten rock that underlie the movements of tectonic plates and cause earthquakes. The Goce probe, launched last week, will measure tiny anomalies in Earth’s gravity, caused by anything from mountain ranges to subterranean lava flows or ocean trenches.

Rune Floberghagen, Goce mission manager, said: “Imagine a snowflake, which weighs a fraction of a gram, falling onto the deck of a supertanker. The impact the supertanker experiences from that snowflake is comparable to the sensitivity of our instrument.”

Scientists have long known that the Earth’s gravity varies all over its surface — and that measuring those changes could give insights into the planet’s inner workings.

However, designing an instrument capable of measuring them, which would also survive the rigours of blast-off, has until now proved impossible.

This weekend, Goce, short for Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer, was declared fully operational. “Goce will yield details of the Earth’s gravity field to an accuracy and resolution that is simply unobtainable by existing terrestrial and space techniques,” said Philip Moore of Newcastle University, who specialises in gravity research.

For geologists, perhaps the most exciting prospect is of being able to “peer” deep below the Earth’s crust. It will exploit the fact that minerals in the crust vary in density and hence in the amount of gravity they generate. It means that oil and mineral deposits or ground-water reservoirs will all leave their own subtle signature on the Earth’s gravitational field.
Has anyone been following the flooding situation in North Dakota? They are expecting the waters to reach record levels there including in cities such as Fargo and Bismark.
I get the sense that Izilda will be a 2nd Fanelle on the other coast


Texas insurers suffer record losses, officials seek climate answers

Hurricanes clobbered Texas insurers last year, draining reserve accounts and igniting a full-blown debate in the Legislature about the state's ability to address rising risks related to climate change.

Two storms besieged the state's curved coastline, including one of the costliest in Texas history, Hurricane Ike. That sent damage claims soaring and resulted in $6.6 billion in losses for state insurers, which had collected record-high premium revenue totaling $5.17 billion last year, according to new data released by the Texas Department of Insurance.
Flash Flood Watch, Coastal Flood Statement

Statement as of 3:51 PM CDT on March 25, 2009

... Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi... including the following areas... in
southeast Louisiana... Ascension... Assumption... East Baton
Rouge... East Feliciana... Iberville... Livingston... lower
Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St.
Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... St.
Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John The Baptist... St.
Tammany... Tangipahoa... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche...
upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper Terrebonne...
Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana. In southern
Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison... Jackson... Pearl
River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.

* Through Saturday morning

* several rounds of thunderstorms are expected tonight through
Friday night. Each round of thunderstorms will be capable of
producing one to three inches of rain. With a stationary front
in place... several thunderstorms may move over an area in a few
hours. While the last few weeks have been rather dry... this
amount of rain will certainly be capable of producing flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.


343 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2009

... Higher than normal tides will continue through Friday evening...

Another surface low is expected to deepen over the Southern Plains
late tonight through Thursday. This low will track east and drag a
cold front into the area Friday. As a result... strong south to
southeast winds of 15 to 30 mph will persist over the coastal
sections. Astronomical high tide is expected Thursday morning
and Friday late morning. Both features will result in tide levels
around 1 to 2 feet above normal high tide Thursday morning and 2
feet above normal high tide Friday morning. A coastal Flood Watch
may be required Friday morning.

All persons in the coastal area should pay close attention to the
tide levels... be prepared to take immediate action to protect life
and property... and should be ready to move to higher ground.
Remain alert and keep listening to your radio... television... or
NOAA Weather Radio for updates... watches or warnings.
Where did the blog stretching graphic police go? He was here earlier today :>)
Still kickin in Tonga and the other side of the ring of fire in CA.... Redoubt might be listening again.

Magnitude Location Time
5.2 Tonga region 1 hour ago Map
5.2 Tonga region 16 hours ago Map
6.0 New Britain region, Papua New Guinea 23 hours ago


Quakes shake California's southeastern desert
2 hours ago

BOMBAY BEACH, Calif. (AP) %u2014 Dozens of small earthquakes are shaking the desert of southeastern California, the day after a moderate temblor struck on the edge of the Salton Sea.

The largest of Wednesday's earthquakes was a magnitude-3.7 recorded at 12:59 p.m. Earlier in the day, swarms of smaller ones shook the sparsely populated area 90 miles east of San Diego. A magnitude-3.5 quake struck shortly before 1 a.m.

Tuesday's magnitude-4.8 quake struck before dawn near the small town of Bombay Beach.

There have been no reports of damage or injury from any of the quakes.

Scientists are closely watching the increased earthquake activity because it is near a section of the San Andreas Fault that has not broken loose in more than 300 years.

L8Ron

Quoting WarEagle8:


DUDE, IKE coverage is awesome! I did not sleep much during IKE even though I am in the Tampa area.....we have relatives in Spring/The Woodlands, TX.

Keep up the great work....love your 'reaper' music, too.


Thank you! :) Hunting has become a passion to me, and this year, should the opportunity arise, I plan on taking this venture to a whole new level.

The "Experience the Preparation for Hunting Hurricanes" taping events are starting to be spread by word of mouth here in Los Alamos to the point where I'll have an audience both at the community pool and at the fire house when I test my safety equipment.

You folks here at wunderground are in for a real treat on June 1st. If all goes as planned, this video will not only be extremely interesting...but hilarious as well.

I appreciate you and all my fans. I'm going to continue to work very hard to present these events to you in a manner where you can see, hear...and in a way...feel what it's really like to be in the middle of things.
924
WFUS54 KHGX 260040
TORHGX
TXC185-339-407-471-260130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0001.090326T0040Z-090326T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
740 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTGOMERY... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORDANO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RICHARDS...LAKE CONROE DAM...HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK...DOBBIN...
DACUS...WOODLOCH...WOODBRANCH...WILLIS...SHENANDOAH...PINEHURST...
PANORAMA VILLAGE...NEW WAVERLY...MAGNOLIA...CUT AND SHOOT AND
CONROE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.


wunderground Interactive Tornado Map
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHT
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL IZILDA
4:00 AM Réunion March 26 2009
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Izilda [974 hPa] located at 23.6S 43.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM radius of the center extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
90 NM radius of the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.5S 42.5E - 55 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.2S 41.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.4S 40.1E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 22.2S 38.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================
Northwesterly vertical wind shear has stopped development of the system, the eye has disappeared on the satellite imagery. A weak tilt is visible on microwave data (CF TRMM 1818z). Izilda has clearly slowed down easward and is expected to recurve soon west-northwest under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in its southwest and becoming the main steering flow.

Upper level jet (well showed on infrared METEOSAT-7 imagery) existing in the west and in the south of the system is expected to be a limitating factor as the system recurves west-northwest, then the strengthening northerly wind shear (beyond 24 hours to 36 hours) should weaken this system if small size.
Fiji Meteorological Services

Gale Warning
==============
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former TC Jasper (1001 hPa) located at 22.3S 164.3E is reported as moving slowly. Expected east to southeast winds of 30-40 knots within 60 to 300 NM of the center in the sector southeast through south to west.
Magnitude Location Time
4.9 South of the Fiji Islands 1 hour ago Map
5.2 Tonga region 4 hours ago Map
6.0 New Britain region, Papua New Guinea Yesterday Map

earthquake.usgs.gov
Turn on dat dere wedder radio, cher.

Tornado Watch 66 is in effect until 300 am CDT for the
following locations


La
. Louisiana parishes included are

Acadia Allen Ascension
Assumption Avoyelles Beauregard
Calcasieu Cameron Catahoula
Concordia East Baton Rouge East Carroll
East Feliciana Evangeline Franklin
Iberia Iberville Jefferson Davis
Lafayette Livingston Madison
Morehouse Pointe Coupee Richland
St. Helena St. James St. John The Baptist
St. Landry St. Martin St. Mary
St. Tammany Tangipahoa Tensas
Vermilion Washington West Baton Rouge
West Carroll West Feliciana
4000 MUCAPE at Lake Charles at 7 pm CDT? Dang. CIN = 0...

:-(

156. atmoaggie
We get them too. It can make the fire do interesting things.
Video
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
156. atmoaggie
We get them too. It can make the fire do interesting things.
Video


That's interesting.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
156. atmoaggie
We get them too. It can make the fire do interesting things.
Video

From the satellite loop on that page you linked, I suspect that the fire itself had something to do with breaking the cap. Not that I thought about that before, but it makes sense.

You live near there? I was in Milton for a trial 2 weeks ago. Neat little downtown...

EDIT: OK, now that I read the details, SPC says the airmass was strongly capped and fire did cause the thunderstorm.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Thank you! :) Hunting has become a passion to me, and this year, should the opportunity arise, I plan on taking this venture to a whole new level.

The "Experience the Preparation for Hunting Hurricanes" taping events are starting to be spread by word of mouth here in Los Alamos to the point where I'll have an audience both at the community pool and at the fire house when I test my safety equipment.

You folks here at wunderground are in for a real treat on June 1st. If all goes as planned, this video will not only be extremely interesting...but hilarious as well.

I appreciate you and all my fans. I'm going to continue to work very hard to present these events to you in a manner where you can see, hear...and in a way...feel what it's really like to be in the middle of things.


Mr. Oz, I cannot speak for anyone but myself.

I would never condone your hurricane activities. They are dangerous and you risk too much with respect to your family by virtue of your actions. Albeit this may mean little to you, ensure you calculate your risks and never challenge the water, no one wins that battle. I am not a fan, just an onlooker. Keep that in perspective when you take your life into your own hands and remember those who count on you day to day. This is not Hollywood.

I would hope someone among us would second that motion. e
Quoting atmoaggie:
4000 MUCAPE at Lake Charles at 7 pm CDT? Dang. CIN = 0...

:-(



That LI is pretty impressive too at -6. Steep mid level lapse rates. Good level of free convection and lifted condensation level.
176. Ossqss Second that
Call me crazy, but I also plan to chase hurricanes one of these days.
Post 152 and 172 is stretching the blog ..LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:
Call me crazy, but I also plan to chase hurricanes one of these days.


I have had the fortune of knowing several individuals that have taken such risks. 50% of them still exist. Make sure before you go that you know what you are getting into. There is no turning back after you reach the point of no return. That is the unfortunate fact that I know first hand. L8R
Quoting TampaSpin:
Post 152 and 172 is stretching the blog ..LOL

!
Look out! the police are back. :)
TampaSpin, you need to give us some guidance --- Stuff is still kickin around the ring. Gotta go --

Magnitude Location Time
4.8 Tonga region 1 hour ago Map
4.9 South of the Fiji Islands 3 hours ago Map
5.2 Tonga region 5 hours ago Map

earthquake.usgs.gov
Quoting TampaSpin:
Post 152 and 172 is stretching the blog ..LOL

Tampa, what do you mean when you say 'stretching the blog'?? Are you talking about the width of the blog?
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Tampa, what do you mean when you say 'stretching the blog'?? Are you talking about the width of the blog?


Yes the Width....do not use anymore than 650 in Width when doing post.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Tampa, what do you mean when you say 'stretching the blog'?? Are you talking about the width of the blog?


Hide 152 and you don't have to scroll to view the text on the rest. If a pic is bigger than the typical screen, it extends the screen, making you have to scroll to the right to see all of the info. Now I really got to go, be well all.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes the Width....do not use anymore than 650 in Width when doing post.


You do know that if you use Firefox that everything too large is resized for you, right? IE sux.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes the Width....do use anymore than 650 in Width when doing post.
I use width="90%" and then the image is just a wee bit smaller than the blog entry window. At least it works on my Firefox. For instance this image width full size is 2048px, but using width="90%" it looks like this


Does it look right to you with your browser???

Or 50% of blog window
Quoting Ossqss:
TampaSpin, you need to give us some guidance --- Stuff is still kickin around the ring. Gotta go --

Magnitude Location Time
4.8 Tonga region 1 hour ago Map
4.9 South of the Fiji Islands 3 hours ago Map
5.2 Tonga region 5 hours ago Map

earthquake.usgs.gov


The outer surface of the Earth sits ontop of a pool of Lava known as "Plates". I think we all know that. So what happens if a plate gets unbalanced it tips and dips. In my mind this is what is occuring now. This is why often when one event occures it puts pressure somewhere else. This happens often when earthquakes happen. When an Earthquake occurs 2 plates are rubbing and get stucks and then frees itself causing an earthquake. Plates either flow over/under or side to side. Just my take. Read just enough to get me in trouble.....LOL
188. KEHCharleston 11:39 PM EDT on March 25, 2009

Its the other browsers that is the problem i guess!
This is not good....exactly as i posted this morning on blog....

It works in my ie as well.

I have never had anyone to complain. It is an easy way for people to get their images to not exceed the width. As long as you do not go over 100% :)

In any case, I just wonder what stretching the blog meant - I had figured you meant width. Just wasn't sure since it is such an easy fix.
Fluid width should adjust to each persons screen size (although maybe with the old browsers it might not work - not sure about Opera either) On the majority of browsers it should work though

Night folks
193. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
101. P451 8:03 AM EDT on March 25, 2009

Please Delete your post or fix your post. It caused a widening of the screen. Thanks.


Whoops...fixed. Had no idea. All images are shrunken for me.

CALCASIEU LA 3045 9344 ROOF RIPPED OFF HOUSE IN DEQUINCY REPORTED BY CALCASIEU PARISH SHERIFF OFFICE. TIME BASED ON RADAR. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LCH)
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1119 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1114 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1111 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1102 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1100 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1058 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1057 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
TORNADO WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1029 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
Quoting Skyepony:
CALCASIEU LA 3045 9344 ROOF RIPPED OFF HOUSE IN DEQUINCY REPORTED BY CALCASIEU PARISH SHERIFF OFFICE. TIME BASED ON RADAR. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LCH)


Sky tonite and tomorrow could be very bad with these kind of CAPE values.....could see it coming a couple of days ago...

Some Nasty stuff...

Big time Rotation in this ....WOW!

WOW this RAdar is filled with Hooks..I hope the people in Mississippi has their Weather Radios on. This is really bad.
baton rouge here... things are getting interesting here. patrap, you better batten down the hatches... be safe, all.
Quoting firegirl:
baton rouge here... things are getting interesting here. patrap, you better batten down the hatches... be safe, all.


It looks really bad Firegirl
yeah you see the arrow pointing straight at donaldsonville? that's headed straight for me. fun times. moved the truck and brough the kayak inside... nothing to do now but enjoy the show... and pray everyone is ok!
Look at this collision of Winds out of the South and West colliding currently on the LA and Miss. Line. No wonder..WOW!

Quoting firegirl:
yeah you see the arrow pointing straight at donaldsonville? that's headed straight for me. fun times. moved the truck and brough the kayak inside... nothing to do now but enjoy the show... and pray everyone is ok!


YOu have a weather radio on..
For those that don't have a Weather Radio use this site! It updates auto every 2 minutes..

College of DuPage Link
I'm in Prairieville, Louisiana, and am about to get slammed by this vigorous squall line.
nope... although you think i would have bought one after gustav... just my obsession with all things weather and you good folks on wunderground. wow - the wind is really ripping. that collision of south and west winds is pretty fierce.
I'm fully prepared to go a few hours without power.
my thoughts, too. turned the air way down so that the cool will last longer when the power goes. ah, memories of gus. good times had by all... NOT.
thanks, tampa! the weather radio is on the hurricane preparedness list for this year. i borrowed one from a friend after gus and ike (you think i would have learned after katrina) and it really was the only way to know what was going on while we were off the grid - for over a week. etouffee on a bbq pit was an adventure - rice on a bbq pit was pure talent. i'm just sayin'... :)
Squall line still going strong. That isn't what we typically see with these -- all too often, they weaken significantly before striking the Baton Rouge metro area. Be careful, firegirl. I think you're going to get hit worse than we are.
Observing things here in South LA...just southeast of Denham Springs. Rumblings have begun...those green & reds look pretty scary on the maps above.

Hope everyone makes out OK, but gotta admit I love watching this stuff.

Headed to the front porch now - I'll keep ya posted on observations if things get interesting.

Grew up in NE Okla, so I actually miss this sort of "excitement"
i can't think of the last time we saw a squall quite like this one, both in width and intensity. i think we're all going to take a beating. you be safe,too, koritheman and southlaokie. i lived in the dfw area for awhile... i have to admit, it is quite exciting, scary and fun, all at the same time. i worry about those who are not paying attention...
Local guru Pat Shingleton about to hit the air (1:10am CST)

Then...me & my cold drink go to the patio to observe the beautiful fury of mother nature
My parents are going to bed, and I'm not sure that's a wise thing to do. I'll stay up to keep them informed.
yeah... poor grad student here - no cable. if pat has something significant to say, please lemme know. enjoy the fury!
well, 1 person keeping watch is probably better than 3 pacing the floors... i;m sure you'll get them to safety if things get too crazy. power just blinked... yippee.
Watch L6 it looks like its about to turn into a tornado.......

well, the deluge has begun and will be over before we know it. time to go to sleep to the sound of the rain... ahhh. i love the power and beauty of storms!

goodnight, all. thanks for hanging with me!
Quoting firegirl:
well, the deluge has begun and will be over before we know it. time to go to sleep to the sound of the rain... ahhh. i love the power and beauty of storms!

goodnight, all. thanks for hanging with me!


Goodnite Firegirl......be safe!
goodnite, tampa! thanks for your concern!
I out for Bed also.....everyone be safe!
068 WFUS54 KJAN 260640 TORJAN MSC127-129-260745- /O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0022.090326T0640Z-090326T0745Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 140 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAGEE... SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 245 AM CDT * AT 140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANATORIUM...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAGEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SANATORIUM BY 145 AM CDT... MAGEE BY 150 AM CDT... 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARTINVILLE BY 155 AM CDT... RALEIGH BY 215 AM CDT... PINEVILLE BY 230 AM CDT... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
Feel like I acutally got something accomplished this morning. Webcam added. Not visible at night but should have an image in the morning

Morning, charlotte.

For those interested, peak gusts here in Prairieville were in the 40 mph range (rough estimation), but power outages were reported across Baton Rouge, as peak wind gusts approached 70 mph.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 210 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLLINS... * UNTIL 245 AM CDT * AT 210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PRENTISS... OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAGEE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LONE STAR AND CLEM BY 215 AM CDT... MOUNT OLIVE BY 225 AM CDT... COLLINS BY 230 AM CDT...
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 215 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 213 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 210 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL IZILDA
10:00 AM Réunion March 26 2009
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Izilda [985 hPa] located at 23.8S 42.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
close from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
15 NM radius of the center extending up to 80 NM in the southern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
25 NM radius of the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.8S 42.2E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 23.4S 41.3E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 22.8S 39.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.9S 37.1E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================
Inertia between system pattern and true weakening is less for small sizes systems. (6H) Northwesterly vertical wind shear is obvious on the imagery. Low level circulation center is partially exposed west of the convection, which is eastward away over the southwestern part of Madagascar. Microwave (AMSU 0226z) and water vapor imageries show a drier air intrusion in the west. Izilda has tracked erratically but should track westward for the next hours, under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures. Upper-level jet present in the southwest of the system is expected to be a limiting factor. Then the strengthening northerly wind shear (beyond 36 hrs) should weaken this small size system
Gust clocked at 67 mph in BR.

67 BATON ROUGE AIRPORT EAST BATON ROUGE LA 3053 9115
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS BATON ROUGE. (LIX)

Leading edge fell apart as it approached St. Tammany. A bit of a dud here, so far. Not knocking it...just fine by me. Now if my nado-phobe of a wife would take a deep breath...
Morning, all. Cool and clear here in Nassau (airport is reporting 66 degrees, and it's still outside - for a change lol).

It's a pity that the rain people are getting in the Gulf coast states doesn't seem likely to head our way before the weekend. Yesterday I left my laptop open on my desk for about two hours. When I got back, the desk and the laptop were covered in a heavy layer of dust that had come in through a nearby partially open window.

We could use some steady rain.
Just replaced the batteries in my rain gauge. Ready for those summer rains! Whenever they decide to arrive. lol. Webcam is up and running. Tweaking a few more things and weather station #1 is complete. In the planning stages for #2. Also am pretty much finished with my blog. Would appreciate any comments.
I keep watching for sunrise on that video cam, charlottefl . . . course it'll happen later there than here, so I may be gone by then :(
The severe squall line is just now crossing into Alabama and has lost some of its punch in the past 45 mins.
It's not finished yet this morning so please keep your weather radios on if you are ahead of the line.

Three preliminary tornado reports in the period since Wednesday morning.
One in particular struck Magee, MS home to WU Blogger SouthernLady.

I spoke to her recently and there appears to be some serious damage with injuries on the north side of town.
More details after sunrise.


Photobucket


Today's Storm Reports


Sky should start lightening up here in about 15 minutes I think...



'Major damage' reported in possible Magee tornado


Possible tornadoes struck Simpson and Madison counties early today, leaving extensive damage in their paths.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., which gathers and releases storm reports, said the Magee Police Department reported "major damage" on the north side of Magee after an early morning tornado.

The report from the Police Department also said injuries had been reported, although the extent and number were unknown.

A woman answering the phone at the Simpson County Sheriff's Department just after 2:30 a.m. said no one was available to speak at the time, as emergency officials still were assessing the situation and "just trying to see what we've got."

Phone lines at the Magee Police Department were busy.

Joanne Culin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Jackson, said the agency never likes to say with certainty whether damage is the result of a tornado or straight-line winds until a full assessment can be made.

However, she said regarding the Magee storm that she felt "very confident that that was a tornado."

"The signature on radar was unmistakable," Culin said.

The storm containing the possible tornado rolled through the Simpson County city around 1:45 a.m., part of an intense line of storms ahead of an approaching cold front.

Magee is located about 40 miles south of Jackson on U.S. 49.

Just after midnight, another possible tornado moved out of northern Hinds County in central Mississippi and into southern Madison County, where there were reports of roofs blown off homes in the Annandale and Reunion subdivisions. Many trees and street signs also were reported down in Madison County.

Culin said the weather service received reports that two homes in the Ashbrooke subdivision, located off Rice Road north of the Natchez Trace in Madison, were damaged as was another house near Gluckstadt.

Other damage reported early this morning as the storms marched across Mississippi from west to east included:


Three homes damaged in Madison County's Cherry Hill subdivision.

Numerous trees down and power outages along Mississippi 24 West near Woodville in Wilkinson County.

Trees and power lines down along Mississippi 28 in Copiah County.

Trees down in Utica and Clinton in Hinds County, McNair in Jefferson County, West Lincoln in Lincoln County and Monticello in Lawrence County.

A carport blown away near Raleigh in Smith County.

On Wednesday, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency reported storm damage in Lauderdale County in east Mississippi.

In that storm, two homes sustained major damage, while nine homes, one business and two barns sustained minor damage. Another business was reported to be a total loss.

MEMA and the National Weather Service urged Mississippians to stay aware of the continuing potential for severe weather through the early morning hours on Saturday.

The weather service said heavy rain, damaging wind and tornadoes will remain possible as a powerful spring storm system continues moving south toward Mississippi. Large hail is also possible, the weather service said.

"Now is the time for every family to make sure their emergency supply kit is well stocked," said Mike Womack, MEMA director. "It is also a perfect time to make sure you have a NOAA weather radio with fresh batteries."
Link
Sun is starting to come up. Might take a few more mins for light to filter into the cam. It's on the S side of the house so it's still pretty dark back there.

238. tb1
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning, all. Cool and clear here in Nassau (airport is reporting 66 degrees, and it's still outside - for a change lol).

It's a pity that the rain people are getting in the Gulf coast states doesn't seem likely to head our way before the weekend. Yesterday I left my laptop open on my desk for about two hours. When I got back, the desk and the laptop were covered in a heavy layer of dust that had come in through a nearby partially open window.

We could use some steady rain.
239. tb1
I know what you mean need rain very badly ponds are drying up. Need a gully washer but would like not to get blowed away. Take care.
tbl
Quoting charlottefl:
Sky should start lightening up here in about 15 minutes I think...




Looks good :)
Good Morning......Trying to stay safe from severes weather the next three days in the Gulf and SE US is a given but it is also nice to finally get some much needed rain in the tri-state North FL/Southern AL & GA region...
Quoting charlottefl:
Sun is starting to come up. Might take a few more mins for light to filter into the cam. It's on the S side of the house so it's still pretty dark back there.



Which cam did you end up getting? It is doing a good job for you.
Actually ended up buying a webcam, like an indoor one, it's just in a window. Figured I can save money on the cam for now maybe buy a 2nd station a little sooner.

It's a HP IM Plus I think.
Decent quality for the price.

P.S. - Thanks Orca


Quoting Ossqss:


Which cam did you end up getting? It is doing a good job for you.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
835 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

FLC033-091-113-261415-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090326T1415Z/
OKALOOSA FL-ESCAMBIA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-
834 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHERN
OKALOOSA COUNTIES...

AT 831 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
NEAR NAVARRE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NAVARRE BY 840 AM CDT...
WRIGHT AND MARY ESTHER BY 900 AM CDT...
OCEAN CITY AND FORT WALTON BEACH BY 905 AM CDT...
EGLIN AFB BY 910 AM CDT...
POSTIL...VALPARAISO...NICEVILLE AND DESTIN BY 915 AM CDT...
Quoting charlottefl:
Actually ended up buying a webcam, like an indoor one, it's just in a window. Figured I can save money on the cam for now maybe buy a 2nd station a little sooner.

It's a HP IM Plus I think.
Decent quality for the price.

P.S. - Thanks Orca




I bought two of the linksys wireless cams.. they are also indoor. I found a few websites that said you could mount them outside... if they were protected (under the overhangs, out of the rain). So far so good, they are both outside and working well.

They are ip addressable, so you can put them on a DDNS server, so anyone can see them. The links are on my blog. The weather station is the oregon scientific wireless setup.


Catastrophe plan
Hurricane Ike reminds us of the need for planning. Texas CAT fund would help do so.


In its messy wake, Hurricane Ike left us a clear message: Category 3 or stronger storm winds will come this way again, perhaps soon. Prepare well for them and do so without delay.

And so we pay heed — shoring up infrastructure and buildings, and cleaning out bayous so flood waters will flow more smoothly.

But some of this work is more nuanced. It must get done in Austin, where Gulf Coast area legislators are pressing the case for better preparedness.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I bought two of the linksys wireless cams.. they are also indoor. I found a few websites that said you could mount them outside... if they were protected (under the overhangs, out of the rain). So far so good, they are both outside and working well.

They are ip addressable, so you can put them on a DDNS server, so anyone can see them. The links are on my blog. The weather station is the oregon scientific wireless setup.


Yeah actually have an OS also, if you look real close you can see the station and the rain gauge. I saw your cam by the way very nice.
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah actually have an OS also, if you look real close you can see the station and the rain gauge. I saw your cam by the way very nice.


Which model OS did you all get? I assume you are happy with them. I have been looking at a few and Samsclub has them around $130 bucks or so US> My old OS is on its last leg (10 years and counting) and cannot be interfaced. This is the one Link
WMR100 it has its quirks but for the price you cant beat it

Quoting Ossqss:


Which model OS did you all get? I assume you are happy with them. I have been looking at a few and Samsclub has them around $130 bucks or so US> My old OS is on its last leg (10 years and counting) and cannot be interfaced. This is the one Link