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Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.

Flood Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Maybe at least a candidate for being Invest briefly?
Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday. Aussie, have a great Thursday!
1003. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
they must be factoring in the tampa shield Largo.
we're going to have some day time heating.
Link wundermap
..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.
1004. LargoFl
I got to say for the time of year it is ,1 month later and we would  have at least an invest if not a depression in the gulf ,It looks like some outflow in the northwest side of the blob and the thing has held together for over 24 hours
SPC must work 8 to 5 Central Time.



Link SPC Outlook

maybe they're sequestered...
1007. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too.
will be interesting to see how it plays out.
so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.
3" to 6" of rain fell yesterday just west of Orlando with the seabreeze collision. Also had a severe storm come thru Downtown Orlando and blew out some of the windows in the high rise buildings. The Trade Winds hotel lost several windows yesterday.

1010. LargoFl
Very heavy rain getting drawn NE into the Tampa Bay area in a couple of hours.

morning
it looks like the 1st tropical wave, is about to exit the African coast ,the next 24 hrs.
Largo: It looks like we will stay pretty much high and dry today, while south of Tampa Bay will once again get
hit with alot of rain.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Kori, you would agree that being gay doesnt matter right? Doesn't change anything about a person. Yet when you turned on the tv all you heard about Collins. If it doesnt matter then having hour specials would have the opposite affect have intended right? Singling him out instead of just him being another basketball player.



That is what is so stupid about the whole thing, the man says hes gay, who cares? I'm pretty darn sure he didn't come out with that because he wants attention, rather hes just sick of keeping it a secret. People need to get over themselves and move on...
Quoting Hernando44:
Largo: It looks like we will stay pretty much high and dry today, while south of Tampa Bay will once again get
hit with alot of rain.


You are wrong there. Tampa is in store for atleast 5" of rain the next few days.
1016. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too.
will be interesting to see how it plays out.
so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.
yeah Miami is doing a great job alright
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
3" to 6" of rain fell yesterday just west of Orlando with the seabreeze collision. Also had a severe storm come thru Downtown Orlando and blew out some of the windows in the high rise buildings. The Trade Winds hotel lost several windows yesterday.



You marked that boundary collision correctly, props :)
I nave also notice the SAL this year is very weak,which will limit the effect of dry air disrupting the development of these waves.
This is to all you nay sayers about our first named system of the year.



Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too.
will be interesting to see how it plays out.
so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.



Miami is a severe weather hotspot too, its just nobody wants to admit it or dare declare it that because its a tropical vacation site, its also one of the wettest places in the U.S. but most people don't know that either.

The difference is that severe diurnal thunderstorm events just get payed no attention by the SPC because they aren't MCS events or frontal related. The local NWS deals with things nicely and always point out the severe threat along with local forecasters. People who live here long enough come to expect occasional severe weather as well during the summer rainy season.
1021. LargoFl
Quoting Hernando44:
Largo: It looks like we will stay pretty much high and dry today, while south of Tampa Bay will once again get
hit with alot of rain.
I dont know about that..I think Tampa Bay will get alot of rain the next 3 days or so..models say all the way til tuesday we'll see how this all plays out day by day...BUT..i say we in florida are sure lucky..this is still our DRY season..any rain we get now is a blessing.
GGEM precip accum


GFS precip accum
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You are wrong there. Tampa is in store for atleast 5" of rain the next few days.


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.
Quoting Hernando44:


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.


No you won't. Hang in there today I bet you get easily 2" of rain. It's coming just sit back grab a fresca and watch the rain come in.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No you won't. Hang in there today I bet you get easily 2" of rain. It's coming just sit back grab a fresca and watch the rain come in.



LOL, thanks. We shall see.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah Miami is doing a great job alright


Are you being sarcastic?
I think they do a great job and are really the hub now that hurricane season is almost here.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GGEM precip accum


GFS precip accum


Long Range Reflectivity out of Key West and Tampa Backs up what the Infrared shows.

Link

Link

Looks to me like Keys will pick up a little more than the 5 day shows.
The Euro still has this low over FL at 144hrs. This is gearing up to be major flood set up for FL.


Quoting Hernando44:


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.



Don't be plagued by forgetfulness, your region gets plenty of rain on average as well. Its just natural to feel the weather is behaving as you say when your in a prolonged dry period. It will return in earnest for you as well in due time.
Quoting Hernando44:


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.


Brooksville? cold up there...

Dang Scott.. sure don't want a bunch of rain on the Kissimmee river watershed... looks like we will anyway :(

Guess my protest rally in Rockledge will be blobbed.. a pox on that Grothar guy for causing this...
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Long Range Reflectivity out of Key West and Tampa Backs up what the Infrared shows.

Link

Link

Looks to me like Keys will pick up a little more than the 5 day shows.


Yeah the whole state of FL is in line for this. Major rain event state wide for the next 5 days.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
The Euro still has this low over FL at 144hrs. This is gearing up to be major flood set up for FL.





LOL, its interesting because we actually had an extremely wet May a few years ago from almost the same type of blocking pattern. An upper level low developed along the gulf coast followed by a surface low in the gulf and the features hung out a lot longer than even originally anticipated and half of May was a drencher.
1034. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:


Are you being sarcastic?
I think they do a great job and are really the hub now that hurricane season is almost here.
no i wasnt i meant they DO a good job, i follow miami more that any others when a storm is close to florida..
1035. LargoFl
some nice thunderstorms just about 30 miles off bradenton
Scott has been talking about this event for days!
Looks like it will play out as the models predicted.
No flooding predicted yet for Central Florida according to NWS Melbourne.
deleted
Quoting Jedkins01:



LOL, its interesting because we actually had an extremely wet May a few years ago from almost the same type of blocking pattern. An upper level low developed along the gulf coast followed by a surface low in the gulf and the features hung out a lot longer than even originally anticipated and half of May was a drencher.


Yup, up to 36" of rain NW of Daytona Beach in Bunnel. I picked up 17" of rain the last 2 weeks in May.
Amarillo, Texas, reached 97 yesterday afternoon. The forecast calls for snow tonight and tomorrow, and a Friday morning low of 28.

Temperatures in the Los Angeles area are expected to reach the upper 90s tomorrow.

It was 106 in Death Valley yesterday. It's -22 in Deadhorse, Alaska right now.

Parts of Denver that saw temperatures near 80 on Monday are expecting up to 20" of snow today and tomorrow.

Ain't this a fun year? ;-)
Picked up 8.76" of rain for the month of April. Unheard of as April is the driest month of the year!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Amarillo, Texas, reached 97 yesterday afternoon. The forecast calls for snow tonight and tomorrow, and a Friday morning low of 28.

Temperatures in the Los Angeles area are expected to reach the upper 90s tomorrow.

It was 106 in Death Valley yesterday. It's -22 in Deadhorse, Alaska right now.

Parts of Denver that saw temperatures near 80 on Monday are expecting up to 20" of snow today and tomorrow.

Ain't this a fun year? ;-)


talk about extremes!
1042. LargoFl
Tampa nws says we got good rain chances thru tuesday..which is great news...lightning yesterday started a brush fire in polk county..................................
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
Something else interesting today. The high in Midland TX is 96 today the high tomorrow? 47! What a front!
1044. ncstorm
longest marine discussion I have seen this year from the NHC in reference to the GOM

000
AGXX40 KNHC 010801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SECTORIZED GFS IN WESTERN GULF TO CAPTURE HIGHER WINDS BEHIND
FRONT.

A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 0330 UTC
CAPTURED A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT MESOSCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
DOMINANT SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE
SURFACE CONSISTS OF A SERIES OF SUCH TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE GULF
MIGRATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA...WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TODAY AHEAD OF A MAJOR DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
TEXAS COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS BETTER ACCORD CONCERNING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS IN GMZ017 EARLY FRI. THE GEFS IS CONSISTENTLY BULLISH
WITH PROBABILITIES OVER 90%...IN LEAGUE WITH THE SREF. THE UKMET
HAS JOINED THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING GALES AT THIS TIME AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL WEAKER WITH ONLY 30 KT.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OUTSIDE THE
AREA OF SUSTAINED GALES. JUDGING BY SST'S AND MODEL STABILITY
GUIDANCE...THE AREA FROM 24N TO 26N W OF 96W WILL LIKELY HAVE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WILL INCLUDE THIS AS PART OF THE
GENERAL GALE WARNING AREA IN THE FORECAST AS A GENERAL GALE FOR
CLARITY REASONS. THE VERACRUZ COAST FARTHER SOUTH IN GMZ023
REMAINS MORE TROUBLING. SREF GUIDANCE STILL CONTENDS A 50% CHANCE
FOR GALES THERE BY AFTERNOON...S OF 22N W OF 95W. THIS IS A USUAL
AREA FOR GALES BEHIND COLD FRONTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
MAY...AND THE SUN ANGLES ARE HIGH...THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MODIFIED ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
GALES FOR GMZ023. SEAS ARE BASED ON MWW3 OUTPUT WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD MADE IN THE NW GULF LATE THU TO ACCOUNT FOR
FASTER WAVE GROWTH BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER CONSENSUS AS WELL IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW IN THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DISCORD IN
THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO SAT. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR NOW SHOWING THE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY SAT.
THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
THROUGH SAT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF DIMINISH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT INTO
SUN REMAIN LESS CERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER IN PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GENERAL WEAKNESS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT ENDS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE GEFS AVERAGING OUT A MORE GENERAL TROUGH OVER
FLORIDA. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS AN OUTLIER...SHOWING ONLY A VERY BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. EXTENDED FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS/ECMWF
BLEND.
1045. LargoFl
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Something else interesting today. The high in Midland TX is 96 today the high tomorrow? 47! What a front!
yeah they say texas might see some near record lows from this system
Quoting indianrivguy:


Brooksville? cold up there...

Dang Scott.. sure don't want a bunch of rain on the Kissimmee river watershed... looks like we will anyway :(

Guess my protest rally in Rockledge will be blobbed.. a pox on that Grothar guy for causing this...


No, it has been beautiful! low to mid 60's at night and upper 80's daytime.
WOW! This whole complex is rotating.

1048. VR46L
Good Morning Folks ...


This water vapour loop conjurs thoughts of Dante's Inferno






1049. LargoFl
clipped from ncstorms post...we in tampa bay area need to really Watch this storm.........................ALTHOUGH SOME DISCORD IN
THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO SAT. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR NOW SHOWING THE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY SAT.
1050. WxLogic
Will be interesting to see if some tropical characteristics are acquired by that low pressure if it stays long enough over water.

Assuming the ULL to it's NW retrogrades a bit more. For now shear has decreased... not optimal but enough for a sheared system.

1051. Grothar
Quoting Doppler22:
I've been out for a day or two... so I need to know one thing, Grothar, did you name the thing in the Gulf a Blob yet?


No.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
WOW! This whole complex is rotating.




It looks like a surface low wants to organize in the southern gulf to the WSW of that complex.


And holy moisture flow batman:


1053. LargoFl
IF you read ncstorms NHC report..the actual low in the gulf..wont come ashore in west central florida coast til Saturday?...wow thats a LONG time to stay out there and build huh..and we are now..in May whew.
1054. icmoore
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No you won't. Hang in there today I bet you get easily 2" of rain. It's coming just sit back grab a fresca and watch the rain come in.



Good morning Scott and everybody. So what do you think about us in Madeira Beach we've been very dry lately. A lot more moisture to our north in the nature coast as well as inland and south of us. The cooler shelf waters have caused a lot of rain coming our way to dissipate before reaching the shore.
the area in the GOM only has aa mid level circulation. there is no indication that it will move down to the surface. Floridians should expect a big rain event with gusty winds.
Quoting WxLogic:
Will be interesting to see if some tropical characteristics are acquired by that low pressure if it stays long enough over water.

Assuming the ULL to it's NW retrogrades a bit more. For now shear has decreased... not optimal but enough for a sheared system.



GGEM
Quoting icmoore:


Good morning Scott and everybody. So what do you think about us in Madeira Beach we've been very dry lately. A lot more moisture to our north in the nature coast as well as inland and south of us. The cooler shelf waters have caused a lot of rain coming our way to dissipate before reaching the shore.


Not this time 1" to 2" of rain for you today alone. Get ready it's coming.
Just because.

CFSv2 500mb geopotential height anomaly forecast for September 2013.

This sort of pattern is very conducive for multiple hurricane strikes on the East Coast.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


talk about extremes!

The climate weather has been very interesting!

Good morning, Scott!
1060. LargoFl
one good thing..my county's drought index will get lowered bigtime ...
1061. VR46L
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
it looks like the 1st tropical wave, is about to exit the African coast ,the next 24 hrs.


If it is , its coming off Africa to far south .. but I doubt its viability

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Not this time 1" to 2" of rain for you today alone. Get ready it's coming.

What's the latest on the CMC for the 00Z run? Continuing to show big rainfall totals for Southern Illinois and Florida?
Quoting WxLogic:
Will be interesting to see if some tropical characteristics are acquired by that low pressure if it stays long enough over water.

Assuming the ULL to it's NW retrogrades a bit more. For now shear has decreased... not optimal but enough for a sheared system.


I'm thinking at most 40mph Sub-TS and that is really pushing it though shear is kinda expected to drop below 25 in the area as early as 36 hours so... you know
Quoting Jedkins01:



It looks like a surface low wants to organize in the southern gulf to the WSW of that complex.


And holy moisture flow batman:




2" PWAT coming into that blob.
1065. Grothar
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is to all you nay sayers about our first named system of the year.





I posted that TC formation yesterday and got no response. I just hope that when we warned SFLweatherman last week about his prom, he remembered. People never listen to us. :)
Quoting stoormfury:
the area in the GOM only has aa mid level circulation. there is no indication that it will move down to the surface. Floridians should expect a big rain event with gusty winds.



Well the chances of anything being tropical is unlikely, however upper divergence is sufficient enough for surface low genesis. It's not striking, but certainly possible.

Tropical development is not impossible though.
1067. Grothar
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


2" PWAT coming into that blob.


Scott, should I give a Grocon level on this now?
1068. intampa
tradition shows that the more we hype rain for tampa bay area the less likely it really happens. therefore i dont think there will be any more rain in the tampa area this week.
Grothar, you may have to revisit this un-named blob in post-season analysis.
1070. LargoFl
1071. WxLogic
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I'm thinking at most 40mph Sub-TS and that is really pushing it though shear is kinda expected to drop below 25 in the area as early as 36 hours so... you know


We shall see what comes out of it... assuming it stays over water.
1072. LargoFl
so IF i read the models right..we get a one-two punch in florida..first we get that huge blob in the gulf coming into us..then..on thursday another low comes into the gulf from texas..builds..and comes into florida saturday over the weekend.
1073. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar, you may have to revisit this un-named blob in post-season analysis.


:) It looks like it might come right over your house.
From the TWD...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 22N92W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY END UP REACHING FLORIDA
IF IT REMAINS INTACT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
Yes!

00Z GGEM (CMC) Total Precip (120 Hours)
Quoting Grothar:


:) It looks like it my come right over your house.


If it does, I'll stay at my neighbors. :)
1077. LargoFl
see friday..here comes the second low in the gulf..wow
Quoting intampa:
tradition shows that the more we hype rain for tampa bay area the less likely it really happens. therefore i dont think there will be any more rain in the tampa area this week.


Not quite, I've seen a number of really crazy events in the Tampa Bay area that isn't expected to be much. Its that the Tampa shield thing is a social phenomenon so its perceived that way. Debby last year was a great example. Even when forecasters realized it was heading towards Florida, the Tampa Bay area was expected to get only 1 to 3 inches of rain and gusts "up to 40 mph". Well it ended up being over a 12 inches in spots long with hours of tropical storm force wind gusts upwards of 60 mph and at times stronger with sustained winds at what max gusts were supposed to be, lol. Not to mention we had a local severe weather outbreak from those bands with numerous severe thunderstorm wind damage events and tornadoes touching down across West Central Florida. I was driving towards the beach that day to check out the surf and caught caught in severe weather, I had to dodge a roof that got blown off someones home that was sitting on Ulmerton road.

That's just one of many examples.
Quoting WxLogic:


We shall see what comes out of it... assuming it stays over water.
I think it would NHC say it will stay untill 7-96 hrs out at least that is what is in there forecast also forecasting a small part to break off and from a Low in the W carib near Hon.
1080. Grothar
If this were December, I would be worried.

1081. LargoFl
It coming!!!:)



Almost looks like a TS heading to FLA.




23-28N 83-90W
Quoting Hernando44:


No, it has been beautiful! low to mid 60's at night and upper 80's daytime.


sorry.. I meant in winter... I lived in Spring Lake. I arrived mid December, just in time for the 82 freeze... after the 85 freeze, I had enough and moved back to Jensen.
I just finished a blog on my preliminary May temp forecast and my weekly local forecast. Feel free to check it out if you want.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013



FRI-SUN...THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHING EAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA
IN A MOIST ONSHORE WIND FLOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD LOW
OVER THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE GFS
THOUGH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SHOULD SUSTAIN AN ONSHORE WIND. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST WPC PROGS.

WITH BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY FRI AND MAYBE INTO SAT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
TO MOS POPS AND HAVE INDICATED 50-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-
SAT.

TAKEN AT FACE VALUE...THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS LOW LEVEL
VEERING FLOW DUE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD BRING
A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES
. BY SUN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DRYING AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS.
1088. ncstorm
low in the GOM

Surface analysis map
Quoting unknowncomic:
Almost looks like a TS heading to FLA.




it's not at the surface though
still a blob
from what I understand, it may not have the structure to hold on to all that moisture
Quoting Jedkins01:



Miami is a severe weather hotspot too, its just nobody wants to admit it or dare declare it that because its a tropical vacation site, its also one of the wettest places in the U.S. but most people don't know that either.

The difference is that severe diurnal thunderstorm events just get payed no attention by the SPC because they aren't MCS events or frontal related. The local NWS deals with things nicely and always point out the severe threat along with local forecasters. People who live here long enough come to expect occasional severe weather as well during the summer rainy season.


One thing you will not hear mentioned publicly but is known by meteorologists on the "inside" is this.. The May, 1997 EF-1/borderline EF-2 tornado which struck downtown Miami opened up a lot of minds about the nature and significance of severe weather events in the Miami area. No small part of this renewed awareness came about as a result of how well that event was recorded on video and the spectacular visuals which resulted from this. It looked like a typical Kansas tornado framed by the high rise buildings in downtown Miami.

This tornado also served as a landmark for meteorologists in understanding factors that can lead to surprisingly potent events across Florida as a whole, such as sea breeze boundary collisions, the potential effects which can stem from minor shortwave energy impulses crossing Florida during the Springtime months, the importance attached to upper level disturbances which come along from time to time and so on, all of which was less well understood in the recent past.

There is still a lot of room for improvement because Florida is somewhat unique, as you know, in terms of the nature of its somewhat peculiar and often more localized meteorological profile than is true for the vast majority of the landmass in the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. And yes, the SPC still primarily focuses on the larger MCS setups which are most common elsewhere but even so there is now more awareness about localized severe weather impacts in Florida than was true even just two decades ago.
1091. LargoFl
Yea!!!

Quoting indianrivguy:


sorry.. I meant in winter... I lived in Spring Lake. I arrived mid December, just in time for the 82 freeze... after the 85 freeze, I had enough and moved back to Jensen.


I knew what you meant. Yes, can be quite cold here in the winter, but only lasts a few days. But we do have our beautiful weeki wachee river to enjoy no matter what the temp.


Hello everyone,

I have a question about the small low pressure in the GOM. Is the center over Louisiana, or is it the large convective area over water?
Data Buoy
1011MB
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Link
1096. Grothar


Quoting LargoFl:
..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

I'd just like to know (and I'm not being sarcastic here) when LargoFl is not being watchful?? ;)

Great night of fishing over here, about 150 pounds of Yellowtail caught. Six-foot shark decided it was easier to catch our fish we were pulling up (handlining) so we eventually gave up and came home.

Looking forward to the rains forecasted for the island in the next few days.

Lindy
The blogg is exploding with or first area of interest this year .
Quoting belizeit:
The blogg is exploding with or first area of interest this year .

I still cannot believe you had a heat index at 126 yesterday. Oh, boy. And sorry to hear about your livestock loss.
1102. LargoFl
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

I'd just like to know (and I'm not being sarcastic here) when LargoFl is not being watchful?? ;)

Great night of fishing over here, about 150 pounds of Yellowtail caught. Six-foot shark decided it was easier to catch our fish we were pulling up (handlining) so we eventually gave up and came home.

Looking forward to the rains forecasted for the island in the next few days.

Lindy
LOL i Love watching the weather,especially so when it threatens florida
1103. Grothar
Quoting Jedkins01:



It looks like a surface low wants to organize in the southern gulf to the WSW of that complex.


And holy moisture flow batman:




I check bouy obs earlier today and there are winds from the West, North, South East and South confirming that.

Station 42001 had winds from the West but have now switched to the south with pressure rising rapidly.
Station 42360 to its North had North wind and pressure rising.
Station 42003 to the East had South wind 25 gusting to 30. Pressure steady at 29.84.
Station 42099 had South East waves, No pressure reading.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not quite, I've seen a number of really crazy events in the Tampa Bay area that isn't expected to be much. Its that the Tampa shield thing is a social phenomenon so its perceived that way. Debby last year was a great example. Even when forecasters realized it was heading towards Florida, the Tampa Bay area was expected to get only 1 to 3 inches of rain and gusts "up to 40 mph". Well it ended up being over a 12 inches in spots long with hours of tropical storm force wind gusts upwards of 60 mph and at times stronger with sustained winds at what max gusts were supposed to be, lol. Not to mention we had a local severe weather outbreak from those bands with numerous severe thunderstorm wind damage events and tornadoes touching down across West Central Florida. I was driving towards the beach that day to check out the surf and caught caught in severe weather, I had to dodge a roof that got blown off someones home that was sitting on Ulmerton road.

That's just one of many examples.


One of those severe weather/wind damage events associated with Debby happened right here in my immediate neighborhood. I lost a large hickory tree on my property and one side window was blown out. My next door neighbor was less fortunate, as she lost two large trees and her neighbor on the other side had an oak tree crash down and cause severe damage to the roof of that house. We also lost power for about 12 hours due to downed power lines. The damage path extended for about a mile both north and south from me with similar results in a number of locations.
Some one who is more intelligent than I, can maybe answere

That feather like feature to the northwest of the blob, is that not indicative of an outflow

1107. LargoFl
my friend just called me from sarasota,"do you see that HUGE blob in the gulf"??...he was kinda concerned,you could tell in his voice..i told him relax..its JUST alot of rain with maybe some good gusts and lightning..NO eye wall etc..its NOT a hurricane lol..just alot of rain which we do need...he relaxed and laughed..but im wondering just how many in florida are right now thinking the way he was before he called....relax..its just rain..alot of rain.
ATCF is making a test with the GOM area.

al88L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I still cannot believe you had a heat index at 126 yesterday. Oh, boy. And sorry to hear about your livestock loss.
Living in the tropics is sometimes unbearable because of the hummidity we rarly get hummidity readings under 60%
06Z GFS Total Precipitation Amounts out to 6 Days (144 Hours)...

click to enlarge
The bouy where the West winds were is pretty much right in the middle of the Gulf.

Link
Quoting belizeit:
Living in the tropics is sometimes unbearable because of the hummidity we rarly get hummidity readings under 60%

It gets very humid in the Mid-Mississippi Valley where I am in Southern Illinois, but that is usually only confined to the Dog Days of Summer (July & August). And it is unbearable at times. I simply could not image that year round like where you are.
1113. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE AREA WITH SEA BREEZES, MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND EAST COAST
AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLOODING: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF STREET FLOODING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ENTERING
CARS OR MAY BE EVEN STRUCTURES IN AREAS HARDEST HIT AND WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.

WIND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HAIL: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SMALL HAIL (DIME SIZE OR
LESS) WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WATERSPOUTS: AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH TO MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It gets very humid in the Mid-Mississippi Valley where I am in Southern Illinois, but that is usually only confined to the Dog Days of Summer (July & August). And it is unbearable at times. I simply could not image that year round like where you are.
Your body gets adapted to the heat your sweat pours open up and you get dehydrated because of sweating a lot
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
06Z GFS Total Precipitation Amounts out to 6 Days (144 Hours)...

click to enlarge

SIU, its gonna be an active week for us. Go from record low flows to what could be a bad situation between St. Louis points south along the Mississippi in just one year.
1117. LargoFl
TEXANS PAY ATTENTION......................................
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THE 3RD
OF MAY AND SATURDAY THE 4TH OF MAY. RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF
MAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE BROKEN OR APPROACHED. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH LOWER TO
MID 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME LOW LYING AND
WIND SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY MAY EVEN BRIEFLY APPROACH
FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY MAY 3RD AND
SATURDAY MAY 4TH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND SAN
ANTONIO.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM....44 IN 2011 AND 38 IN 2011
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...45 IN 1929 AND 42 IN 1907
DEL RIO.............45 IN 1970 AND 47 IN 1954
SAN ANTONIO.........47 IN 2011 AND 44 IN 1954

THE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY ARE LISTED BELOW.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM....38 ON MAY 4...2011
AUSTIN MABRY........40 ON MAY 1...1925
DEL RIO.............45 ON MAY 3...1970
SAN ANTONIO.........43 ON MAY 9...1984

$$
I think the convection in the gulf may cross out into the Atlantic, or may spark more convection farther south, but we will have to wait and see.

But in other news, I got my first thunderstorm of the year (it was actually multiple storms in training) last night.
That is big rain coming!!!


Quoting ILwthrfan:

SIU, its gonna be an active week for us. Go from record low flows to what could be a bad situation between St. Louis points south along the Mississippi.

Indeed. It seems like the region in Southern & Western Illinois up to Peoria is bullseye for the 3-5" totals. The Illinois River just crested recently. All that water flowing south will create havoc on where you mentioned.

Luckily, I don't reside in the Mississippi floodplain in extreme Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri (along the New Madrid Fault Zone).
1121. LargoFl
Link Heat index calculator if someone ever needs one
1123. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
1124. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


No.
Quoting Grothar:


No.



looks like you may have throw in the towel soon and declare this a offical BLOB gro ! morning everyone
Why does the system off the West coast of Florida look like a tropical storm forming yet everyone is saying that it won't form into anything? Is it just because of the pressure difference or sheer?
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Indeed. It seems like the region in Southern & Western Illinois up to Peoria is bullseye for the 3-5" totals. The Illinois River just crested recently. All that water flowing south will create havoc on where you mentioned.

Luckily, I don't reside in the Mississippi floodplain in extreme Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri (along the New Madrid Fault Zone).


That bullseye will continue to shift with each model run. Also both the NAM and GFS are overestimating the moisture return with this next system. So those totals might need to be cut in half, but it's still a lot of rain.

Discussion from Lincoln NWS
1128. pcola57
Good Morning All..
72 degrees 93%rh with dews at 69..
Mostly cloudy with winds 14mph out of the East gusting to 21 so far..
Misty outside..
Good for the new plantings.. :)

Cloudy at the beach with the surf starting to kick up some..

Quoting WDEmobmet:
Some one who is more intelligent than I, can maybe answere

That feather like feature to the northwest of the blob, is that not indicative of an outflow





found on google
1130. VR46L
Gulf Of Mexico vap_images/goes


Quoting VR46L:
Gulf Of Mexico vap_images/goes



Beautiful image, VR.
1133. pcola57




1134. Grothar
Quoting 7544:



looks like you may have throw in the towel soon and declare this a offical BLOB gro ! morning everyone


You know me, I never want to get the blog excited.
1135. pcola57
Today the local met stated today would be a wash out for us here..
So far I dunno..

1136. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Beautiful image, VR.


Thank you very Much !

I like it, just shows what it is, a big old rainmaker !
Quoting Grothar:


You know me, I never want to get the blog excited.


Grothar will only issue Blob Alerts on disturbances that have a potential to develope into Invests.
Quoting VR46L:


Thank you very Much !

I like it, just shows what it is, a big old rainmaker !

And nothing more. No closed LLC. No tropical wave. No developing low. Nothing that the NHC missed. Just squally weather. A big old stinking rainmaker.

:)
1139. pcola57
Latest GOES East..

Click HERE to Enlarge

update
Hi Grothar. Maybe our first Tropical Wave? What do you think?

Africa loop
Is that a low now?

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY ONE (18U)
10:45 PM EST May 1 2013
===========================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Zane (993 hpa) located at 13.2S 145.5E or 245 km east of Lockhart River and 195 km north of Cape Flattery has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center in northern quadrants
100 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY 1, with wind gusts up to 65 knots is moving in a west northwest direction towards the east coast of Cape York Peninsula. The system is expected to cross the coast as a weak Category 1 cyclone between Orford Ness and Cape Sidmouth during Thursday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about coastal areas between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery overnight and during Thursday morning, and may extend through the northwestern Peninsula district during Thursday.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Orford Ness and Cape Melville. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Heavy rain areas, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop from the east across the Peninsula district overnight and during Thursday, particularly near the coast between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery.

People between Mapoon to Cape York to Cape Flattery should continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Cape Flattery

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.1S 142.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 11.0S 139.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 09.2S 130.6E - 15 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Zane is weakening steadily under northwesterly shear. DT 3.0 based on shear pattern, however low level centre accuracy is only fair. MET and PAT are 2.5. Final T based on MET. CI held at 3.0.

The system should continue to weaken as it approaches the far northern Queensland coast, as the environment remains unfavourable for development due to the increased shear associated with the upper trough. Currently forecast a minimal category 1 system at landfall.

Winds are still expected to be strongest on the southern side of the system in the east/southeast flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The system is currently moving towards the west-northwest and it is expected that the system will maintain this track under the influence of a mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central Coral Sea.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST May 1 2013
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 22F (993 hPa) located at 24.0S 179.0W is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multi-spectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Convection remains poor in the last 12 hours. System lies east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeast with slight intensification.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 01 2013

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N20W TO 1N30W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 3W AND 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
12W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N12W 3N22W 4N26W 5N40W 8N47W 9N51W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 22N92W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY END UP REACHING FLORIDA
IF IT REMAINS INTACT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS...ENDING WITH
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN THE BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AREA. VISIBILITIES NEAR 3 MILES OR
SO ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREA. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN TEXAS
AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED AND BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO APPEAR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST
OF THE APALACHEE BAY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS
KGVX...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KEIR...AND
KSPR. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE
ICAO STATION KATP.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES A 29N91W 24N98W COLD FRONT.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH-
TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA...
AND ACROSS HONDURAS. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 15N81.5W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW
MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...
AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 7N72W
TO 7N78W...INTO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...INTO COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS AND
IN VENEZUELA...IN CLUSTERS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
71W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N72W. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N76W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 35N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W
AND 50W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...
THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N40W AND 22N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N36W 24N49W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 78W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N69W TO 26N62W AND 18N57W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 24W/25W FROM 5N BEYOND 32N.

UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N70W 15N60W
16N50W 20N40W 22N30W...BEYOND 23N23W...
TOWARD AFRICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N40W
23N50W. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 44W. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 31N77W
29N74W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
ALSO EXPECT NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
77W AND 79W.
1148. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Today the local met stated today would be a washout..
So far I dunno..



I dont think you are going to have a deluge .... the bulk of the rain is way south in the Gulf.. There a bit of popcorn to the North maybe with day time heating it might spawn some for ya

RGB
Good Morning. I see the "Blob" made a slow trek overnight right towards South Florida. Grothar has it covered. Sheer appears to be in 30-40 knot range:

Link

And, while winds are gusting to 31 knots due West of Naples, pressures are rising:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Wed, 1 May 2013 11:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (170°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (146°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and rising
Air Temperature: 73.8 F
Water Temperature: 77.7 F


Tropical development is not likely but flooding is...
1150. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

And nothing more. No closed LLC. No tropical wave. No developing low. Nothing that the NHC missed. Just squally weather. A big old stinking rainmaker.

:)


Yeah I somehow don't think they will need to send recon out ....;)
Blob watch is in full effect! Mornin' ya'll.
1152. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Grothar. Maybe our first Tropical Wave? What do you think?

Africa loop


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.



Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





I thought the herring balls would of picked your spirits up.
1154. Grothar
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


What night is your prom?
1155. 7544
src="http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLo op/eyw_None_anim.gif" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is that a low now?



maybe this thing has been really growing in size in the last 6 hours and looks whats goin on around the southern portion of it and seems to be all heading due east interesting tho
May 3!:) lol
Quoting Grothar:


What night is your prom?
1158. Grothar
I just got a call to do a little translating. It shouldn't be long. See you guys later.
1159. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Even VRL????

LOL
Development issues notwithstanding, the Blob is one heck of a frontal remnant.......If this was August.....
Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Agree with you thoughts about this. You think the Atlantic side will have the first TC over the EPAC?
1162. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:


I dont think you are going to have a deluge .... the bulk of the rain is way south in the Gulf.. There a bit of popcorn to the North maybe with day time heating it might spawn some for ya

RGB


Good Morning to you VR46L..
I agree with you..
This is gonna be a hit and run day..
Nothing unusual for me..
The ITZ sure is staying south right now..
We need another wave to watch..Lol..
The rest of Florida is looking good for moisture if this feature in the GOM stays together..
Shear is lessening but it may not take much to disrupt..
Quoting muddertracker:
Blob watch is in full effect! Mornin' ya'll.

You're telling me! Morning, Mudder.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar will only issue Blob Alerts on disturbances that have a potential to develope into Invests.


I called it a blob lastnight & gave it an outside chance of seeing an invest Friday or the weekend. That complex of thunderstorms that came through Central FL the other night went up off the Carolina's the moisture from that may get sheared but the near surface reflection might get shunted down & back across FL with this blob of moisture. That is when things may get even more interesting. The attachment tot he parent low is all so another big if about this gaining invest status.

Something looks off here...

Quoting Grothar:
I just got a call to do a little translating. It shouldn't be long. See you guys later.
Aufwieder sehen Later Lata Astala proxima Lota or in wich language you need me to tell you
1167. barbamz
Good morning, and a little sideview to the current auroral oval:

Source Spaceweather.com

Pity it isn't a night in winter right now. That would probably be very bright auroras. I can't remember I've seen the aurora oval such strong for quite a long while.
1168. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning to you VR46L..
I agree with you..
This is gonna be a hit and run day..
Nothing unusual for me..
The ITZ sure is staying south right now..
We need another wave to watch..Lol..
The rest of Florida is looking good for moisture if this feature in the GOM stays together..
Shear is lessening but it may not take much to disrupt..


Hiya Pcola,

Shear is definitely down today was looking yesterday at it but its still too high for TS development IMO

Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Lolita came out that year..... or was it Ursala in Dr. No?
What a difference a year makes here in NA.

Year to date through April:

Hi Max Hi Min Low Max Low Min
2013 4,030 5,596 7,723 5,313
2012 15,538 12,775 1,669 1,082
Quoting luvtogolf:
What a difference a year makes here in NA.

Year to date through April:

Hi Max Hi Min Low Max Low Min
2013 4,030 5,596 7,723 5,313
2012 15,538 12,775 1,669 1,082

Balancing out nicely.
1172. LargoFl
1173. bappit
Quoting indianrivguy:


Lolita came out that year..... or was it Ursala in Dr. No?

Watched Dr. No on a channel with Chinese subtitles. Odd experience mainly because the movie was so bad.
The NE Caribbean islands will get a big rain event in the next few days.

Here it comes Tampa!



Do you see that!!
!!!!!!!!:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!:)


It's moving NE at 10mph. That low seems to moving toward Fort Myers or Sarasota.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!:)


I do love your enthusiasm :)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do you see that!!
mid level
Key West radar showing 38,000" cloud tops and 100% chance of 1" hail. You don't see that every day!!!

1183. hydrus
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Key West radar showing 38,000" cloud tops and 100% chance of 1" hail. You don't see that every day!!!

That does look interesting.
Quoting luvtogolf:
What a difference a year makes here in NA.

Year to date through April:

Hi Max Hi Min Low Max Low Min
2013 4,030 5,596 7,723 5,313
2012 15,538 12,775 1,669 1,082
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Balancing out nicely.


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like it. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so... "balanced" wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.
West central Florida will get plenty of action throughout the day, I am totally confident. If you live in hillsborough/Pinellas south, you should experience a few hours of moderate rainfall with our main blob. If you live north of there, then the light east wind we are experiencing will encourage a sea breeze collision and boundary chaos in the afternoon with heavy thunderstorms. A widespread 2-3 inches seems reasonable to me
Geesh.

Can you believe this? From the Twin Cities, MN NWS Office:


It is looking more likely that tonight into Thursday morning will feature not just a rare, but potentially unprecedented May snowfall event across parts of the area, with a swath of 6 inches of snow expected to fall from south central Minnesota into east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The deep and cold upper low bringing us the rain today and snow tonight will be slow to move out of the region, with clouds, cool temperatures, and periods of rain expected to remain across the area through the weekend. The good news, by the start of next week, temperatures look to warm back up closer to their early May normals of the mid to upper 60s.
1188. hydrus
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 01, 2013 - 12:45 UTCGOES Imager Spectral Difference
May 01, 2013 - 12:45 UTC
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like we're balancing out. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so - balanced wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.

Balancing out nicely for me.
@wxbrad What's the feature moving east towards Florida in the GOM.


Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 4m
@gsdavo1975 thats a little vort max that has turned into a small surface low.

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975 3m
@wxbrad If this was in 2 months time, could it form into a cyclone?

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 2m
@gsdavo1975 it sure could be. Early in the season we do get some to form this way, old thunderstorm complexes sitting over warm water.

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975 33s
@wxbrad Thanks for the explanation, Have a great day.
Heading straight across the Dry Tortugas. May have to change the name for the day.

1192. hydrus
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's moving NE at 10mph. That low seems to moving toward Fort Myers or Sarasota.


Very overcast here in Fort Myers right now. Yesterday's rain total in my rain guage .61"
If this was say middle of July and this feature was in the GOM. This place would be gong hella crazy.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Heading straight across the Dry Tortugas. May have to change the name for the day.

Florida is the coolest state!
1196. LargoFl
nice blob headed towards Pinellas ..............
Quoting hydrus:

Gorgeous imagery, Hydrus. Just gorgeous.
From the Twin Cities NWS:

It is looking more likely that tonight into Thursday morning will feature not just a rare, but potentially unprecedented May snowfall event across parts of the area, with a swath of 6+ inches of snow expected to fall from south central Minnesota into east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The deep and cold upper low bringing us the rain today and snow tonight will be slow to move out of the region, with clouds, cool temperatures, and periods of rain expected to remain across the area through the weekend. The good news, by the start of next week, temperatures look to warm back up closer to their early May normals of the mid to upper 60s.

1199. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:



Hey now thats what I call unique imagery !!

Very Cool!!
Quoting VR46L:



Hey now thats what I call unique imagery !!

Very Cool!!

Both you two are on fire today!!
1201. LargoFl
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ034-055-075-011445-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0053.130501T1344Z-130501T1445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT...
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT

* AT 941 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS FROM
42 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE NORTH TO 29
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE SOUTH...MOVING
EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

DRY TORTUGAS...
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT...
REBECCA SHOAL LIGHT...
HALFMOON SHOAL LIGHT...

PREPARE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...STEEP AND
FAST-BUILDING SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BLINDING
DOWNPOURS. STAY LOW OR GO BELOW...AND MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE
WEARING LIFE JACKETS.

INTENSE AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...STAY LOW OR GO BELOW.


Nice loop
Quoting AussieStorm:
If this was say middle of July and this feature was in the GOM. This place would be gong hella crazy.


You got that right Aussie! I think it will stay a surface low for now. Shear is not as high as yesterday but still, it's only May 1st... thankfully
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like it. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so... "balanced" wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.
Some people use an odd definition of the term "balanced", don't they? ;-)

Speaking of temperatures, cold as parts of the US were during April--and it was indeed a cool month for much of the nation--April nonetheless had 34% more warm temperature records than did March. It'll be interesting to see what the rest of the year holds...
000
FXUS62 KMFL 011343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.UPDATE...
MASSIVE CLOUD FIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GOFMEX ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROTATING BENEATH CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PRODUCING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING WITH NEARLY 800
STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES.
THE CONVECTIVE FIELD IS MOVING
EAST BUT THE QUESTION IS IF IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND HOW MUCH EFFECT THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE MAINLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
HEATING WILL BE HELD OFF ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS
TO OCCUR. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST BUT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MAINLAND AS SOME HEATING TAKES PLACE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A STORM MOTION TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. ALL OF THIS SAID, CURRENT THINKING IS
TO ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND HIGHER POPS BACK TO THE WEST COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
APPROACHING CONVECTION.
12Z NAM out to 21 Hours. The map below illustrates total precipitation. (note: the 12Z NAM is currently running and should conclude in about an hour.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Some people use an odd definition of the term "balanced", don't they? ;-)

It depends on which location they are referring to. ;-)
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
From the Twin Cities NWS:It is looking more likely that tonight into Thursday morning will feature not just a rare, but potentially unprecedented May snowfall event across parts of the area, with a swath of 6 inches of snow expected to fall from south central Minnesota into east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
That's definitely interesting. I know many people are unhappy when meteorologists or climatologists use the word "unprecedented" because of what that word means, but, well, if the shoe fits...
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
It depends on which location they are referring to. ;-)
No, I'm pretty sure "balanced" means the same thing in every location. But I'll check my dictionary to be certain... ;-)
VR46, thanks for that animation #1148.
You can really see one of the cloud seeds due west of Tampa and south of Apalachicola.
They really kick up impressive amounts of condensation.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like it. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so... "balanced" wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.

I think he's referencing the much closer balance of record highs vs record lows this year across the CONUS, as they are much closer in number to each other as opposed to last year's large disparity.

*EDIT: nope, nevermind...
Massive is not the word, lol.

INCOMING......

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
From the Twin Cities NWS:

It is looking more likely that tonight into Thursday morning will feature not just a rare, but potentially unprecedented May snowfall event across parts of the area, with a swath of 6+ inches of snow expected to fall from south central Minnesota into east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The deep and cold upper low bringing us the rain today and snow tonight will be slow to move out of the region, with clouds, cool temperatures, and periods of rain expected to remain across the area through the weekend. The good news, by the start of next week, temperatures look to warm back up closer to their early May normals of the mid to upper 60s.



TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles
1214. VR46L
GulfOfMexico-cloudtops/goes

Quoting Neapolitan:
That's definitely interesting. I know many people are unhappy when meteorologists or climatologists use the word "unprecedented" because of what that word means, but, well, if the shoe fits...

Very true. Usually the people of whom you are referring to aren't the ones posting the image and graphic in the first place.

But that's just an observation I've made. Silly me.
1216. hydrus
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ034-055-075-011445-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0053.130501T1344Z-130501T1445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT...
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT


* AT 941 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS FROM
42 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE NORTH TO 29
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE SOUTH...MOVING
EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

DRY TORTUGAS...
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT...
REBECCA SHOAL LIGHT...
HALFMOON SHOAL LIGHT...

PREPARE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS
...STEEP AND
FAST-BUILDING SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BLINDING
DOWNPOURS. STAY LOW OR GO BELOW...AND MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE
WEARING LIFE JACKETS.

INTENSE AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...STAY LOW OR GO BELOW.

LAT...LON 2458 8328 2495 8318 2502 8313 2502 8250
2358 8246 2361 8291 2366 8310 2375 8320
2381 8323 2412 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 272DEG 24KT 2541 8302 2515 8294
2480 8292 2461 8292 2423 8307 2397 8325
Quoting AussieStorm:


TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles

So they went through the entire Alphabet with the names. Holy schmoly.
1221. VR46L
Quoting biff4ugo:
VR46, thanks for that animation #1148.
You can really see one of the cloud seeds due west of Tampa and south of Apalachicola.
They really kick up impressive amounts of condensation.


Thank you very much ! Yeah I like RGB as a view it kind of tells more of a story than a normal Vis does!
Ria Persad (Carlo)
President of StatWeather


Dear Friends,

I have put together a special study for you that I thought you would find informative.

Best wishes,
Ria

Who or What are Anti-Forecasts?

Anti-Forecasts are weather predictions that are more wrong than right. They're forecasts that, if you follow them, will bring you bad trades, poor crops, untold amounts of wasted energy dollars, cheat you out of a raise and even send you on the fast track to the unemployment line.

How is data collected? I sit at my laptop every day, every week, every month, and every year, and I google search. When I find those long-range (monthly and seasonal) forecasts, press releases, and maps, I save them and then I skill-test the forecasts at the end of the month or season. There are many forecasts which are not on the web, whose results are not posted here. It's a very simple system: If you're on the correct side of climate normals (Above, Normal, Below), you get it right. If not, you get it wrong. If the regional boundaries on your temperature forecast map aren't as neat as the NOAA climate regions, I give you benefit of the doubt and will score you in your favor. I do this on my own time, and I take full personal responsibility for the contents of this study. Any errors herein are all mine.

Why do I do this? I believe that people in different industries need to know if certain forecasts are providing more harm than help....or, if a simple change of strategy---inverting the forecast---is going to provide the biggest returns as a hedging strategy!

These Anti-Forecasts represent 18 months of skill, including Winter 2011-2012, Summer 2012, Winter 2012-2013, March 2013, and April 2013.
So who have I found to be the Anti-Forecasts?

#1 (Most Inaccurate) Anti-Forecast: Farmer's Almanac; Accuracy score: 26%
#2 Anti-Forecast: NOAA; Accuracy score: 28%
#3 Anti-Forecast: Accuweather; Accuracy score: 31%
#4 Anti-Forecast: MDA EarthSat; Accuracy score: 32%
#4 Anti-Forecast (tied): WSI; Accuracy score: 32%


All of these forecasters were on average worse than going with Climate Normals over the last 18 months.
The accuracy score of Climate Normals: 35%.
In other words, if you went with any of the 5 "Anti-Forecasts", and then INVERTED their forecasts, you would have made money.

StatWeather's best hedging recommendation is to INVERT any of the above forecasts or go with a straight StatWeather forecast (accuracy score: 74%).

To view more accuracy reports, go to www.statweather.com
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, I'm pretty sure "balanced" means the same thing in every location. But I'll check my dictionary to be certain... ;-)

It means the same thing, but it doesn't necessarily mean it applies to a particular location at a specific time. Things in my region have balanced out like a straight beam within the past year.
Not really much left of TC Zane



Can't see any circulation on microwave now.


1225. hydrus
The forecast upper low looks rather familiar.
1226. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
The forecast upper low looks rather familiar.

Eerily familiar. Gave me chills for a minute when I had flashbacks of that moderate risk of severe weather over my region two weeks ago...
Quoting hydrus:


Terracane?
Quoting AussieStorm:


TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles




your late they named it overe the weekend
Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water...
1231. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Both you two are on fire today!!



Thank you!!


Its a good excuse to air out the links and get re- acquainted with Imagery that has hardly been looked at for Months
Quoting VR46L:


Its a good excuse to air out the links and get re- acquainted with Imagery that has hardly been looked at for Months

Or a good time to stop being lazy and import all my favorites over from antiquated IE to Chrome and get with the times!!
1233. hydrus
This is some of the strangest news I have seen in a very long time, and it seems legit....
Image Album:
Image Gallery: Odd Alien-Looking Skeleton Poses Medical Mystery
Jeanna Bryner, LiveScience Managing Editor
Date: 30 April 2013 Time: 11:21 AM ET
...Link
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is just one month away. Do you have a personal hurricane plan ready? This is the time to get one, before there is a hurricane on your doorstep.


Link

Welp. The earth exploded.

Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting AussieStorm:


TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles




your late they named it overe the weekend

Obviously not everyone knew about it.

Remember, when they first came out and said they would be naming Winter Storms. They said they expected to only name less than 10. Winter Storm Achilles is now Winter Storm 27.

Btw Taz, Some people do have a life outside of this blog.
1237. hydrus
Quoting muddertracker:


Terracane?
Hope not...Dont want none i say..:)
That's quite a line of storms there.

1239. Grothar


1240. LargoFl
come on baby..thats it..keep coming..gimme that rain.....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
ATCF is testing the GOM area


75kt Test? Not very realistic. Now the Test in the East Pacific (20 kt) is more realistic.
Quoting hydrus:
Hope not...Dont want none i say..:)
\

Yup.....The trajectory for this non-entity at the moment reminds me of Wilma.....The warm waters of the lower Everglades did not slow her down one bit before she hit the East Coast of Florida. At least we have good local doppler coverage to keep an eye on things.
Quoting LargoFl:
come on baby..thats it..keep coming..gimme that rain.....


Uh...wow. Even the best foreplay is still, well, foreplay. A month or so away from any real action.
The line should weaken a bit as it hits land then get refreshed in a big way when it gets to the east coast. The complex should arrive over here right about peak heating and sea breeze time.
Quoting muddertracker:


Uh...wow. Even the best foreplay is still, well, foreplay. A month or so away from any real action.

ROFL

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)


000
FZNT24 KNHC 011431
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-012145-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACHING GALE FORCE FRI MORNING OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE
AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AND SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

$$
1218 Tropicsweatherpr: ATCF is testing the GOM area

Good to know they haven't changed the site address like they did last year.
Annoying to read that an Invest has been declared, but being unable to find the ATCF history on it.
1248. LargoFl
Light rain here now with some boomers out in the gulf.
1249. LargoFl
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)


000
FZNT24 KNHC 011431
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-012145-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACHING GALE FORCE FRI MORNING OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE
AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AND SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

$$
yes we get a one-two punch of rain this week with these low pressure systems..great rainfall
Good Snow in Colorado. Only a two inches have stuck east of Longmont this morning but it is coming down hard enough to make my TV go out.

The mountains east of the divide got hit hard overnight. The Joe Wright snotel west of Ft. Collins at 10,120 feet showed a bunch of snow.
Link
Between 6pm and 2am it indicated 19 inches of snow (1.3 inches liquid)
1251. LargoFl
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ876-011515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0029.130501T1417Z-130501T1515Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 1012 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF DON PEDRO ISLAND TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SANIBEL...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED.

&&
FWTIW, that low in the Gulf is deepening at bit; we are getting counter-clockwise rotation on the lower cloud decks at the moment in the FL Big Bend. Not used to seeing the clouds rotate in from the East up here unless we have a big low or storm in the Gulf.
1253. Grothar
OK. It's a blob.

All around Florida, people are cheering for the approaching MCV.
1255. LargoFl
Light rain to the south of me already.....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1257. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
OK. It's a blob.

LOL Gro..they have been waiting for that.,
Quoting nofailsafe:
Welp. The earth exploded.



welp.. you know how it is... there is no failsafe :)
AussieStorm: TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles.
1229 Tazmanian: You're late, they named it over the weekend.

He was telling another WUber who reported that a big snow was forecast for her/his area that it had already been named.
1260. hydrus
The gulf blob has an invest number..78L..
1261. hydrus
Here is Zane getting whacked with shear.
1262. Grothar
Global warming gone wrong. Live mobile May 1st winter storm video from MN:
Live mobile wx video
nary a drop in ecfl this afternoon or tonight...goodnight.
http://www.whitecityweather.com/wx10.html

glad its not july or sept. noticable spin just south of me here
Quoting StormHype:
Global warming gone wrong. Live mobile May 1st winter storm video from MN:
Live mobile wx video

Technically, I would say it is "Global Warming Gone Right", because it represents heat redistribution effects. Convection knows what it's doing: we don't.
Quoting indianrivguy:


welp.. you know how it is... there is no failsafe :)

"Did you just call me BUB!?"

Sorry, quoted the wrong one. "It's now officially a blob"
It has been unusally cool in the south the beginning of this week and last weekend.
1269. pcola57
Good Morning Andre..
Dr. Masters has a new blog..


Click HERE