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Records rains in Philippines from Tropical Storm Ketsana kill at least 106

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2009

Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped prodigious amounts of rain on the Philippine Islands Saturday, triggering flooding that killed at least 106 people and left 280,000 people homeless. The flooding was particularly bad in the capital of Manilla, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). The flooding from Ketsana was the worst in at least 42 years in Manilla, and the streets of the entire city became submerged in knee to waist deep or higher flood waters. Local news video showed dramatic footage of flood victims being swept down a suburban river on a pile of debris. Ketsana is currently over the South China Sea, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eight dissipated yesterday, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa in about seven days time.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update doc
Good morning Dr. Masters, have a great Sunday, I appreciate the update!!
Nice and quiet in the Atlantic.

Terrible situation in the Philippines.
wow, Great minds do think alike, unfortunate for those in the Philippines.

Thanks for the update
Looks like the Philippines just got their 50 year flood. I hope there are no more casualties and the clean up can begin.

Interesting that the GFS is forecasting another CV system.

good afternoon
well a very quiet tropics today and this time of the hurricane season. that being said, i am now looking at an area near 28w associated with a tropical wave.there seems to be some potential for this wave to develop into something down the road. the wind shear is marginal for development provided that the area stays south of 15 deg north. sat pics this morning shows a little cyclonic turning near10n 28w. the QS also shows a weak circulation with the western side still open. the steering current in the vicinity is weak which will make this system slowly move towards the west the next few days. this area should be monitored as it moves westward towards a more favourable environment closer to the islands. it should be noted that hurricane Flora formed in the same area in 1963. and caused hundred of deaths in Hispanoila
Thanks Doc!

456.. nice photos and info in your update bro, thanks!
This image really shows the extent of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough out east. Increase in cloudiness near the date line as seen here is an indication of El Nino. When this sifts to the Southern Hemisphere next winter, cyclone activity will increase but well east of Australia, Fiji and New Caledonia, rather the Pacific islands like American Samoa maybe affected by increase TC activity this season.

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Jokes posted by some of your Blog mates (There are some weird little campers on this Blog).
One of the cyclones track last cyclone season was Hamish...was a cat 5 on the Australian scale

Here's a TCR for Hamish

say good bye too hurricane season for the USA its overe vary fall like temper this week with even winter like temper has well for most of the USA even CA will be seeing vary fall like temper i think summer like temper for the UEA other then right there on the gulf coast other then that summer like temper are ending for most of the USA
The stations offshore on the Coral Reefs provided some excellent data on Hamish, as you can see in the animation and report, there were multiple landfalls on these islands.
Quoting Tazmanian:
say good bye too hurricane season for the USA its overe vary fall like temper this week with even winter like temper has well for most of the USA even CA will be seeing vary fall like temper i think summer like temper for the UEA other then right there on the gulf coast other then that summer like temper are ending for most of the USA


Quoting Tazmanian:
say good bye too hurricane season for the USA its overe vary fall like temper this week with even winter like temper has well for most of the USA even CA will be seeing vary fall like temper i think summer like temper for the UEA other then right there on the gulf coast other then that summer like temper are ending for most of the USA


WOW
Major LOS
great update dr
area of disturbed weather in the eastern atlantic is showing some form of banding.
Wow amazing coincidence of blog topics weather456!
21. P451
Me thinks the good doctor had no ideas for this AM's blog and just stole Weather456's and re-posted it.

:D



Meanwhile, something that has been discussed, and I touched on yesterday morning, was that the true threats left would be Caribbean born in the coming weeks. Your Wilmas, Mitchs, Omars, etc - one could still occur - even an Opal - if we got just one week of relenting shear. Thing is, I'm not so sure we would get such a week, but we will watch all the same.



12 Hours Loop
22. P451
24 Hours Loop:

What I believe will be our primary AOI region in about a week.

Post 20: we are bound to cross somewhere even though he is 10 times more experienced than I am.

Meanwhile, here's the NHC thoughts on the NJ low, which I'm not entirely surprise. I still classify it as a warm seclusion which is basically a warm core extratropical cyclone. One way to find out if a system is cold core or warm core is by looking at the vertical wind profile.

A cold core low like a TUTT cell is strongest at 200 mb but weaken downward towards the surface.

A warm core system like a TC or subtropical is strongest not at the surface but around 700 mb and weaken upwards.

The reason why we start from 700 mb is becuz friction at the surface causes the cyclone strongest winds to be near 700 mb - the free atmosphere - rather than at the surface. They weaken upward from that point.

Thank you for your e-mail.

The area of low pressure did not have tropical characteristics,
including those to be classified as a subtropical system.

The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to its north
and east created gusty winds and a long fetch of moisture from the
Atlantic waters, which triggered the prolonged and occasionally heavy
rain.

Regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida
24. IKE
If someone doesn't want to read me posting the TWO, simply put me on ignore and the problem is forever solved....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Say a prayer for those in the Phillipines. I know I will. Makes the problems I have seem insignificant really!Glad the tropics are quiet! I can focus on football better!Good day all!
FLASH TRAFFIC::::ReliefWEB

Philippine storm leaves 52 dead, 280,000 homeless: govt

Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Date: 27 Sep 2009


by Jason Gutierrez

MANILA, Sept 27, 2009 (AFP) - At least 52 people were killed and more than a quarter of a million displaced after the heaviest rain in more than four decades plunged the Philippine capital into turmoil, officials said Sunday.
Weather456, look at this image, why is TD 8 heading back west, despite the NHC had it recurving back northeast as a remnant low?

Quoting Patrap:
FLASH TRAFFIC::::ReliefWEB

Philippine storm leaves 52 dead, 280,000 homeless: govt

Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Date: 27 Sep 2009


by Jason Gutierrez

MANILA, Sept 27, 2009 (AFP) - At least 52 people were killed and more than a quarter of a million displaced after the heaviest rain in more than four decades plunged the Philippine capital into turmoil, officials said Sunday.


Not so flash Traffic...

Records rains in Philippines from Tropical Storm Ketsana kill at least 106

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped prodigious amounts of rain on the Philippine Islands Saturday, triggering flooding that killed at least 106 people and left 280,000 people homeless.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456, look at this image, why is TD 8 heading back west, despite the NHC had it recurving back northeast as a remnant low?



It could be 2 reasons:

1) The fact that TD 8 is not a remnant low, rather a tropical wave, which move westward regardless of mid-latitude influences. They may appear to have move north but it is illusion of the axis amplifying northward that causes that.

2) It could of been uncertainty with the intensity...

This feature is moving off towards the west-northwest under the influence of the Azores high-pressure ridge. This motion is expected through the next 3-5 days until a trough digs across the area and creates a weakness in the ridge, causing the storm to take a more northward motion. Track guidance beyond 5 days becomes uncertain due to the intensity uncertainty so the feature will be monitored.

From Friday's update.
Quoting Orcasystems:





Orca!! Careful, you're gonna give your smiley a concussion!!

P.S. The 2009 Hurricane season is NOT over!!!
2 hours and only 30 comments. Blog really slow today.
Ummmmm,Sunday Blog...sweet,

Ribs a smoking...beer is cold.


Life is Grand for sure.



Quoting stormwatcherCI:
2 hours and only 30 comments. Blog really slow today.


64 days
5 hours
53 minutes...until IKE shuts up.

I have not seem him to post the 2PM tropical weather outlook, must be running late.
34. JRRP
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
2 hours and only 30 comments. Blog really slow today.

como suero de miel de abeja

The W Pacific is chock full of TD's & a TS!Link
23.
Thanks for sharing the e-mail, W456.

The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to its north and east created gusty winds

Which is the main reason why 90L will not be re-classified, imo.
hurricaneseason2006 haha rigth on
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


64 days
5 hours
53 minutes...until IKE shuts up.

I have not seem him to post the 2PM tropical weather outlook, must be running late.


wow, have you a reason to be that upset.
Quoting Patrap:
Ummmmm,Sunday Blog...sweet,

Ribs a smoking...beer is cold.


Life is Grand for sure.





Hi Patrap -
Saints gonna take care of the Bills for us today? Was just talkin to a Buffalo fan (gack!) and he was trash talkin your boys...
I never would see those post,but some folks keep a quoting um.

Kinda takes the luster off my perfect day..


Another cold one dear,..and sauce dem ribs again please, too.

Quoting beell:
23.
Thanks for sharing the e-mail, W456.

The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to its north and east created gusty winds

Which is the main reason why 90L will not be re-classified, imo.


well 92L is my main target. 90L came close but the winds sampled were predominately 30 knot, TD status with some 35 knots winds in there.

But 90L while approaching the Alabama coast didn't interacted so much with a high. It was when it was over Florida.
Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Patrap -
Saints gonna take care of the Bills for us today? Was just talkin to a Buffalo fan (gack!) and he was trash talkin your boys...


Hard to trash talk dem Numbers..LOL

Is Buffalo in Canada too?
Quoting Bordonaro:

The W Pacific is chock full of TD's & a TS!Link


call it the string of pearls
Quoting JRRP:

como suero de miel de abeja
Concuerdo. No mucho en hablar de trópicos sabios.
Farmers' Alamanac Winter Outlook

'swhat I said. Brees and da boys are firin on all cylinders, and lol...
Quoting P451:
24 Hours Loop:

What I believe will be our primary AOI region in about a week.

Are you referring to the area NE of Panama? Both Mitch & Wilma developed in this region, albiet later in October of the years in question.
42.
But 90L while approaching the Alabama coast didn't interacted so much with a high. It was when it was over Florida.

I would disagree a bit. The high was there. The surface map below is a little on the low-res side but it seems clear enough that the high was parked right along the coast just N of 90L.

The NJ low-well, a much different story and good arguments have been made by you and others. Won't try to change your mind on that one!

May 23, 7AM EST


Link
Quoting superpete:
Are you referring to the area NE of Panama? Both Mitch & Wilma developed in this region, albiet later in October of the years in question.
Paloma last year too.
1st-3rd. Fair and quite warm. 4th-7th. Dry and cooler, hurricane threat for Outer Banks of North Carolina, but system should rapidly spin away to the northeast. 8th-11th. Showery weather, with some of it heavy, especially for Tennessee and Alabama, then clear and cooler weather moves in from the west. 12th-15th. Generally fair skies prevail. 16th-19th. Muggy and quite showery. 20th-23rd. A brief shot of cold weather for the Southeast, even Florida. 24th-27th. Lots of cloudiness and areas of fog cover the Southeast States. Rain from the Carolinas south to Florida. 28th-31st. Clearing and drier weather for Halloween.

November 2009
1st-3rd. Mixed clouds and sun. Turning colder. 4th-7th. Clear, crisp for Southeast, then turning milder. 8th-11th. Violent thunderstorms move east to the Atlantic. A deep freeze follows. 12th-15th. Clouds and fog give way to clear and colder weather. 16th-19th. Late-day rain showers Gulf Coast. 20th-23rd
Farmers' Alamanac
They wish they were in Canada. There on the snowy side of the lake,oh well if you cannot have everything I guess snow will have to do ya.
Quoting beell:
42.
But 90L while approaching the Alabama coast didn't interacted so much with a high. It was when it was over Florida.

I would disagree a bit. The high was there. The surface map below is a little on the low-res side but it seems clear enough that the high was parked right along the coast just N of 90L.

The NJ low-well, a much different story and good arguments have been made by you and others. Won't try to change your mind on that one!



huh, it that image , the high was parked out in the Atlantic ocean near Bermuda. In the case with the NJ low and other gradient level winds, the high is adjacent to these features. That high near Bermuda steered 90L rather help interact with it that much, hence why I said "not so much". Also the QS pass of 90L indicate these winds were cyclonic rather than gradient orientated.
Ok, I hate to interrupt – especially as I’ve already risked the blog’s ire by talking football, but I just gotta ask some stupid questions…

There are 4 buttons at the top of every post:

Hide – I know what that one does – click it and it hides the post; click it again and it shows the post.

What happens if you click “I like this comment” or “I dislike this comment?

If you click “Report to administrator” does that bring up an email form, or does it just automatically flag that post to admin so they can see for themselves what the offense is?

Not that I’m hankerin’ to start clicking buttons, just inquiring minds want to know…
Quoting gordydunnot:
They wish they were in Canada. There on the snowy side of the lake,oh well if you cannot have everything I guess snow will have to do ya.


I have see them play.. no thank you... you can keep them :)
Quoting mikatnight:
Ok, I hate to interrupt %u2013 especially as I%u2019ve already risked the blog%u2019s ire by talking football, but I just gotta ask some stupid questions%u2026

There are 4 buttons at the top of every post:

Hide %u2013 I know what that one does %u2013 click it and it hides the post; click it again and it shows the post.

What happens if you click %u201CI like this comment%u201D or %u201CI dislike this comment?

If you click %u201CReport to administrator%u201D does that bring up an email form, or does it just automatically flag that post to admin so they can see for themselves what the offense is?

Not that I%u2019m hankerin%u2019 to start clicking buttons, just inquiring minds want to know%u2026


Yes to the flag admin one.
The Plus and minus effects the rating of the comment, when you use the filter system.
The only thing there good for is an occasional upset of the jets. My team always makes me cry anymore as the song says.
ah, filter system? I'm such a neewbie. There's probably a link I can go to to find all this stuff out, huh?
Of course QS would show curvature.
The strongest winds were north and east of the center-gradient induced.

Photobucket
60. JRRP
four years ago


i´m out
Quoting beell:
Of course QS would show curvature.
The strongest winds were north and east of the center-gradient induced.

Photobucket


yea I see the press grad but what I'm saying is that it interact with 90L some but now what you would see in gradient level winds like with the NJ low.
Quoting mikatnight:
ah, filter system? I'm such a neewbie. There's probably a link I can go to to find all this stuff out, huh?


When in doubt.. look here
Oh I see now, duhhh. nevermind. Talk amongst yourselves...
Link

here 12z ECMWF .
Quoting JRRP:
four years ago


i´m out


If I remember right that area of disturbed weather became Stan
Also bell, remember with gradient induced winds, the strongest winds are well away from the center...not the case with 90L based on QS and surface obs. There was some gradient induce winds as you stated but not what was occurring with the NJ, which was less tropical than 90L.
W456,
Maybe we should take this discussion to a "political" blog lol.
Thanks
Quoting beell:
W456,
Maybe we should take this discussion to a "political" blog lol.
Thanks


lol, no its all good
Quoting Weather456:
Also bell, remember with gradient induced winds, the strongest winds are well away from the center...not the case with 90L based on QS and surface obs. There was some gradient induce winds as you stated but not what was occurring with the NJ, which was less tropical than 90L.


But we had squat for winds elsewhere. The stronger winds were along the packed isobars between the high and the low which were in-place right up to the low itself.

And, already said the NJ low is a whole 'nother deal!
)
I get the feeling no one actually uses the Like or Dislike buttons. I just filtered from BEST to BAD and I think only one comment was hidden...
Quoting mikatnight:
I get the feeling no one actually uses the Like or Dislike buttons. I just filtered from BEST to BAD and I think only one comment was hidden...


I use the other choices to filter comments .. its a lot more permanent :)
Quoting beell:


But we had squat for winds elsewhere. The stronger winds were along the packed isobars between the high and the low which were in-place right up to the low itself.

And, already said the NJ low is a whole 'nother deal!
)


ok
You mean "Ignore User" right? I've been reluctant to use that for fear I couldn't undo it. Besides, I can always just hide the post...
so are we done for the season?
Quoting mikatnight:
You mean "Ignore User" right? I've been reluctant to use that for fear I couldn't undo it. Besides, I can always just hide the post...


Its just as easy to unignore as it is to ignore.
I reset mine 2 or 3 times a year, but it seems the same people end up on it every time.
Quoting truecajun:
so are we done for the season?


No, I still need 2 more named storms to meet my prediction...
Quoting mikatnight:


No, I still need 2 more named storms to meet my prediction...


anyone predicting landfall?
dr. m said a few weeks ago that he thought we'd get one hit on the CONUS before the season was through. does he still feel this way? what is the general opinion of the blog. i haven't been on in a while.
Thanks for the help Orca. With the blog slow though, I consider all as part of the entertainment. I haven't noticed a nasty one since the wee morning when some angry fool was going off on Masters, Al Gore, etc. blah, blah, blah
Ignorance is bliss. I'm mostly a lurker, but I have 15 users on ignore, it's so peaceful not to have to deal with their ignorant comments. Although many people still quote them, so I see them anyways.
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Ignorance is bliss. I'm mostly a lurker, but I have 15 users on ignore, it's so peaceful not to have to deal with their ignorant comments. Although many people still quote them, so I see them anyways.


there is slight problem that i discovered the other day.

A and B has an ignore list.

Now there is bound to be 1 person on A's list that is not on B's list, and A gets upset if B quotes the user. Now how is B suppose to know who is on A's ignore list?

In simple terms, not everyone ignore list is the same thus you can quote anyone and not even know who has that person on ignore. For that, you need a universal ignore list, and not everyone would like to lose such preference.
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Ignorance is bliss. I'm mostly a lurker, but I have 15 users on ignore, it's so peaceful not to have to deal with their ignorant comments. Although many people still quote them, so I see them anyways.


Ah yeah, never thought about that. Brings up another question (I'm such a pill), do you know if someone has you on ignore? I'd hate to think I was on an ignore list, but probably am...
The ignore function will only work if a user is on everyone ignore list. Just becuz you have user A on ignore does not mean I do, so if I quote that user, how I'm suppose to know? and vice versa
Quoting truecajun:
dr. m said a few weeks ago that he thought we'd get one hit on the CONUS before the season was through. does he still feel this way? what is the general opinion of the blog. i haven't been on in a while.


I was also wondering if the good Doctor still felt the same – though I think he worded it that “disaster relief” would be needed before the season was over, not necessarily from a TC. If so, the Atlanta Flood would qualify. Might be wrong on that, have to look it up. In any case, even the folks who are saying the season is dead are still checking the weather every day, if for nothing else than to be sure they’re still right! So, it ain’t ever really over until it’s just so damn cold everywhere that there’s no way a TC can form.

How’d I do 456?
Quoting mikatnight:


I was also wondering if the good Doctor still felt the same – though I think he worded it that “disaster relief” would be needed before the season was over, not necessarily from a TC. If so, the Atlanta Flood would qualify. Might be wrong on that, have to look it up. In any case, even the folks who are saying the season is dead are still checking the weather every day, if for nothing else than to be sure they’re still right! So, it ain’t ever really over until it’s just so damn cold everywhere that there’s no way a TC can form.

How’d I do 456?


sounds reasonable. like the rest of 'em, i'll check in periodically until Nov. 1st. Y'all enjoy the rest of your Sunday!
mik...you're definitely on my ignore list...
hurricane season is overe fall and winter like temper will be takeing the USA this week and overe the next fews weeks


my gut feeling is that the USA is safe from hurricane this year and we may and we could not see any more name storms


so there for we will end the season with 6 name storm 2 hurricanes and 2 cat 3 or higher hurricanes
Quoting presslord:
mik...you're definitely on my ignore list...


What a coincidence! I also, am on my ignore list. Great minds think alike…
Quoting mikatnight:


I was also wondering if the good Doctor still felt the same %u2013 though I think he worded it that %u201Cdisaster relief%u201D would be needed before the season was over, not necessarily from a TC. If so, the Atlanta Flood would qualify. Might be wrong on that, have to look it up. In any case, even the folks who are saying the season is dead are still checking the weather every day, if for nothing else than to be sure they%u2019re still right! So, it ain%u2019t ever really over until it%u2019s just so damn cold everywhere that there%u2019s no way a TC can form.

How%u2019d I do 456?



I actually miss that what the Dr. said but if he was talking about TCs it would be reasonable since September is the peak. But I find it strange that he would say disaster relief would be needed for the season is over. Which season he meant - hurricane, summer, fall or tornado season (which has a second peak in November)? I'm not sure what he meant but your explanation sounds reasonable.

I love that last part.

And even those who think the season is dead is checking the TWO every 6 hrs to make sure they are right! :)
Quoting Weather456:


there is slight problem that i discovered the other day.

A and B has an ignore list.

Now there is bound to be 1 person on A's list that is not on B's list, and A gets upset if B quotes the user. Now how is B suppose to know who is on A's ignore list?

In simple terms, not everyone ignore list is the same thus you can quote anyone and not even know who has that person on ignore. For that, you need a universal ignore list, and not everyone would like to lose such preference.


Valid point.. but I also look at it this way...

I have someone on ignore, but not yourself..and you do not... yet you quote him.

I would assume that you were quoting him for a reason... such as they might have said something semi intelligent.. then it might actually be worth seeing.

No harm no foul :)

If on the other hand.. its someone continuously quoting someone who is not saying something intelligent.. then they normally end up on the same list..

Problem solved :)

I'm looking for the entry now, before I get myself in trouble...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Valid point.. but I also look at it this way...

I have someone on ignore, but not yourself..and you do not... yet you quote him.

I would assume that you were quoting him for a reason... such as they might have said something semi intelligent.. then it might actually be worth seeing.

No harm no foul :)

If on the other hand.. its someone continuously quoting someone who is not saying something intelligent.. then they normally end up on the same list..

Problem solved :)



true
Dr M was referring to at least one tropical system requiring disaster response...
just in case anyone is interested...I never put anyone on ignore...seems kinda silly to me...it's just a blog...the 'ignore' game seems like a childish ego trip...
Quoting presslord:
just in case anyone is interested...I never put anyone on ignore...seems kinda silly to me...it's just a blog...the 'ignore' game seems like a childish ego trip...


I dont have a list either, but for a slightly different reason...the ignore feature is ineffective and besides I dont need an ignore list to ignore someone.
97. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Also bell, remember with gradient induced winds, the strongest winds are well away from the center...not the case with 90L based on QS and surface obs. There was some gradient induce winds as you stated but not what was occurring with the NJ, which was less tropical than 90L.


lol told you that would initiate a debate =P
Ok, we were both wrong. From his Sept 11th blog:

"Only one hurricane has made landfall this season--Category 1 Hurricane Bill, which did minimal damage to Newfoundland, Canada. Although it is an El Niño year, and the steering current pattern will continue to be favorable for keeping most of our storms out to sea, I expect we will get a hurricane strike somewhere in the Atlantic this season that will require a disaster response".

So he didn't say conus, but he did say Atlantic hurricane. His thinking must surely have changed, since he said recently it was doubtful anything would make it across...
Quoting presslord:
just in case anyone is interested...I never put anyone on ignore...seems kinda silly to me...it's just a blog...the 'ignore' game seems like a childish ego trip...


I agree and disagree.
There are some people on here who have some pretty erratic moods and behaviours. Its easier to not let them get you mad, if you can't see them.
I have stormtop(whatever added names) on ignore..and have for the last few years.
Quoting JLPR:


lol told you that would initiate a debate =P


yes, I actually did it to lively up activity :)
Quoting Weather456:


I dont have a list either, but for a slightly different reason...the ignore feature is ineffective and besides I dont need an ignore list to ignore someone.


i agree. i don't use it either.
...well...I actually have to know someone before I can get mad at them...
103. beell
Quoting presslord:
just in case anyone is interested...I never put anyone on ignore...seems kinda silly to me...it's just a blog...the 'ignore' game seems like a childish ego trip...


ditto. and i never (well, almost) quote any poster that fits my definition of "troll". Your results may vary...
Hey Press... Just got back from ice skating with the kids.

How's the weather looking your way? I know chuck got you going last night.
hey Dak...had some thunder boomers overnight...but today has been OK...
Back to the "dead season" for a sec, I know there was one year (have to look it up) where a TC was listed as forming in January, but after further review was determined to have formed on Dec. 31st! Reckon it all just depends...
107. JLPR
dead quiet again :)

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Paloma last year too.
How could we forget Paloma?
Quoting presslord:
...well...I actually have to know someone before I can get mad at them...


it helps a lot if I'm married to them...
Quoting presslord:


it helps a lot if I'm married to them...


Thats not going to help here.. your wife has to have the patience of a saint..she's married to you... nice try.
Mik - IIRC there is only one or two months out of the year that a TC has not formed since records were kept. SO yes, anything is possible. The reason for a season is that 99.9% of all TC's form within that time period and it definetly applies to landfalling storms...

Press- Glad to hear it wasn't that bad...

Quoting presslord:


it helps a lot if I'm married to them...


lol Something tells me you two do ok (damn, here comes that warm, fuzzy feeling again)
what is El Niño are you guys not geting



why do you think hurricane season is overe so soon


weak EL nino are not we will see hurricane season comeing to a end a lot sooner this year then we saw the past 2 years
ORCA - This is coming from someone who has a SWMBO?
Orca...either that...or she has a deep psychological disorder...
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
522 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS...

SEPTEMBER 2009 HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY WET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NASHVILLE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
11.07 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH...MAKING THIS THE SECOND
WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD
.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST 12 DAYS. THERE HAVE
BEEN LOCALIZED REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING INCLUDING WASHED OUT
ROADS...SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS...AND WATER RESCUES.
MAJOR RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE STAYED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

THE FOLLOWING ARE SELECTED 12 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING AT 7 AM
SATURDAY FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.


LOCATIONINCHES
COOKEVILLE 12.6WNW 12.61
BAXTER 1.0NNE 11.93
COOKEVILLE 4.1NE11.71
LEBANON 3.7WNW11.56
LEWISBURG 5.1SW11.54
BRENTWOOD 5.0ENE11.25
CARTHAGE 8.7NNE11.17
LINDEN 0.5SSE10.04
HARTSVILLE 5.8WSW 9.91
LAWRENCEBURG 8.8SE 9.48
SHELBYVILLE 7.5NW 8.05
KINGSTON SPRINGS 1.4SW 7.59

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND AT

HTTP://WWW.COCORAHS.ORG

OR

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE
looking for the button...
Quoting presslord:
Orca...either that...or she has a deep psychological disorder...


True, you may have scarred her for life when she saw that picture of you in her dress... and I am guessing she burned the thong.
Too much info, Orca! How will we be able to burn that image away....
120. JLPR
Quoting mikatnight:
Back to the "dead season" for a sec, I know there was one year (have to look it up) where a TC was listed as forming in January, but after further review was determined to have formed on Dec. 31st! Reckon it all just depends...


yep Hurricane Alice in 1954
crazy xD a hurricane in Dec-Jan in the Caribbean
I think this year I'm gonna be a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model...
Quoting presslord:
I think this year I'm gonna be a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model...


Will you at least shave first?
123. P451
Can we talk WEATHER only please? Can people PLEASE flag posts of the known offenders? EMail the Admin at the same time since flagging seems utterly useless?

We all (those of us here to discuss the weather that is) that there are maybe 3 people on here who use as many as three dozen names to irritate us.

The newest round is quite obvious it is one big myspace comments section on here the past few weeks as a result and their "following" (also known as new fake names, such as xcool) that is one really useless individual doing nothing more than looking to upset us all.

So you know what? FLAG and then IGNORE.

I have a whopping six names on ignore, I don't like the ignore list, but I now use it to banish those who I KNOW are here SIMPLY TO SCREW AROUND and nothing more.

Sadly? Yesterday on one page of 100 comments I could read maybe 50 - due to the banning of six names.

What does this tell you? It tells you these six I have banned are here to just clown around.

Again, FLAG the post and IGNORE and if the problems persist email the admin.

Enough of us who are here to enjoy the weather flag and report to the admin directly the better chance these few idiots, very few with their multiple names, disappear.

It is irritating but the discussion of such is now taking on it's third consecutive blog with no reason!

REPORT AND IGNORE and let us discuss the WEATHER.

If the Atlantic is slow let us talk about elsewhere!


THANK YOU!

Quoting mikatnight:
Too much info, Orca! How will we be able to burn that image away....


I am still having nightmares.. they posted it again last night.
Dak...that's an awfully personal question...
He'll do anything to get money for Portlight.org. Really knows how to "press" everyone's buttons, don't he?
hey - You started it and Orca egged you on.

P451 - What Atlantic Tropical System would you like to discuss? We will play along - just a little boring at the moment...
P451...

OK, where and what?
Nada happening?
TD 8, Dead
Caribbean... nada
BOC.. nada
GOM.. nada
Africa.. nada

Heck, its even stopped raining in Macon GA.



yea...let's all refocus our attention on discussing all this horrid tropical weather out there...
130. P451
Quoting JLPR:
dead quiet again :)



Mostly...may I submit: A portendor of things to come. Potentially...in about the 7-14 day range.



Quoting Orcasystems:


I am still having nightmares.. they posted it again last night.


I was there for the carnage. Halloween has taken on a whole new darker image...
Or better yet, let's discuss Dr. Masters blog the other day regarding global warming.

Maybe an Al Gore quote or two just to get things ramped up.
Quoting mikatnight:


I was there for the carnage. Halloween has taken on a whole new darker image...


Looks like TS got heck for his version of the picture.
134. P451
You guys wish to talk with and discuss the few trolls who lead you to believe there are multiple trolls and/or newbie weather hobbyists seeking help?

Okay then, my mistake, enjoy being baited in to such, and I will go do something else.

:)

Ok. Who peed in p451's wheaties...











Sorry, back to the weather - or lack thereof...

There's that beautiful cold front Ike's been drooling over, that's supposed to bring our temps here down a whopping 2 degrees. Ho hum. Welcome to the Tropics says the sign as you enter Lake Worth, Fl...

Quoting Orcasystems:


Looks like TS got heck for his version of the picture.


I was wondering how lenient Admin was gonna be on that. He get the 24 hr cold shoulder?
Mik - yeah the one that won't even make it down here.. I see it. :-)
Quoting mikatnight:


I was wondering how lenient Admin was gonna be on that. He get the 24 hr cold shoulder?


I have no idea..I assume so
Most of us have had one :)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
==========================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Ketsana (975 hPa) located at 16.0N 113.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
375 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.2N 110.9E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.3N 108.4E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm
72 HRS: 17.1N 106.8E - Tropical Depression

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "ONDOY" has continued to move farther away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13 - FINAL
=====================================

At 11:00 p.m PhST, Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) located at 15.5ºN 114.2ºE or 560 kms west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 km/h (60 kts) with gusts up to 140 km/h (75 kts).

Additional Information
===========================
With this development, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.

However, this disturbance will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the Western Sections of Central and Southern Luzon.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (17W)

System #2
------------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200z 27SEPT)
==========================================

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 11.0N 156.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west slowly

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
===============================================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (18W)

System #3
-----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200z 27SEPT)
==========================================

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west slowly
Yeah, I got one for posting the "Get Smart" "Cone of Silence" during a discussion of the Cone of Error. I thought it was hilarious, but alas, I was the only one...
Quoting Orcasystems:
P451...

OK, where and what?
Nada happening?
TD 8, Dead
Caribbean... nada
BOC.. nada
GOM.. nada
Africa.. nada

Heck, its even stopped raining in Macon GA.





Yes!! For the moment, all is quiet in the Atlantic, E & C Pacific!! Everybody remembers last year, the destruction, flooding, loss of life, um-teen billions in damage!! This year a strong TS/weak Hurricane Bill blew over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland!! Alot of fish got rocked around in the ocean!! YES, quiet, kinda boring, but people are safe!!!

HOWEVER, there are 3 TD's and a TS Katsana is about to become a Typhoon, which is going to slam into Northern Vietnam sometime tomorrow!!

This year might go out on a quiet note!! I do not believe next year will be as quiet in the Atlantic Basin!!
Ok. Dolphins are driving - gotta kick some Charger butt. Catch ya'll later...
Mik - Dolphins are losing.. :-(
145. JLPR
whats left of TD8's circulation is moving west

yea...I got one for using a common slang reference to Cajuns...apparently the Admin had never heard it...and ascribed it a WHOLE different meaning...
Good Grief JLPR it's like FredEx all over again!
Ex-TD8 is going to be a popular phrase for the next couple of days.

Since Ex-TD8 is defying the models, (how odd), will it put it in a better environment for development?
149. xcool



CFS model!
JLPR and Dakster,

repost

29. Weather456 1:56 PM AST on September 27, 2009
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456, look at this image, why is TD 8 heading back west, despite the NHC had it recurving back northeast as a remnant low?



It could be 2 reasons:

1) The fact that TD 8 is not a remnant low, rather a tropical wave, which move westward regardless of mid-latitude influences. They may appear to have move north but it is illusion of the axis amplifying northward that causes that.

2) It could of been uncertainty with the intensity...

This feature is moving off towards the west-northwest under the influence of the Azores high-pressure ridge. This motion is expected through the next 3-5 days until a trough digs across the area and creates a weakness in the ridge, causing the storm to take a more northward motion. Track guidance beyond 5 days becomes uncertain due to the intensity uncertainty so the feature will be monitored.

From Friday's update.
Hey!!!
152. amd
Quoting Dakster:
Ex-TD8 is going to be a popular phrase for the next couple of days.

Since Ex-TD8 is defying the models, (how odd), will it put it in a better environment for development?


probably not. right now it is embedded in a region of very dry air.

Link

Also, shear is very unfavorable right now in the eastern and central Caribbean, and I don't think the shear is going away anytime soon.

Link
Quoting presslord:
yea...I got one for using a common slang reference to Cajuns...apparently the Admin had never heard it...and ascribed it a WHOLE different meaning...


..

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Thanks 456 & AMD.

BTW, xcool reminds me of iceman for some reason...
156. xcool
Dakster im . haha
Quoting PcolaDan:


related to maybe?


Careful...
158. beell
148.
Since Ex-TD8 is defying the models

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

...AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...WHICH
FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...

...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SURVIVING
LONGER THAN THEY DID 24 HR AGO...SO A 96 HR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN
ADDED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC TROUGH BY 120 HR.

Link
:l


















terrible out in the west pac looks like vietnam is in the path now massive storm
Quoting leftovers:
terrible out in the west pac looks like vietnam is in the path now massive storm

I know Vietnam is a pretty poor nation!! I pray and hope to God that the people in the Northern half of that country have been warned to flee low lying areas because they're going to get more than the Phillipines received yesterday!! It's N-O-T going to be a pretty scene!!!
162. IKE
Put a log on the fire....inland Florida panhandle...

Tuesday Night
Cooler. Mostly clear. Lows around 52. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Quoting Orcasystems:


I have no idea..I assume so
Most of us have had one :)
Not me. I behave and cannot be held responsible for what others do with my stir stick...

Charleston weather? Here is the low down.

Update on TS KATSANA, STORM 9****Compliments of the Vietnam Meteological Website which is SOOOOOOO SLLLLOOOOOWWWW!!

Feedback 01 hours on September 28, position 9 in the center of the storm is about 15.9 degrees North Latitude; 113.4 degrees East Business, the Paracel Islands, about 170 km to the southeast. In the strongest winds near the center of the storm power supply 11 (ie from 103 to 117 km an hour), shock level 12, level 13.
Forecast for 24 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and north-west Western, per hour to about 10-15 km and continue more strongly. To 01 hours on 29 / 9, located at the center of the storm at about 16.2 degrees latitude, 110.7 degrees East Business, on the waters southwest of the Paracel Islands. The strongest winds near the center of the storm power level 12, level 13 (ie from 118 to 149 km an hour), shock level 14, level 15. From the center of the storm, the danger from high winds and over 10 for a radius of about 200 km, from grade 6 and over a radius of 350 km.
Within the next 24 to 48 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and northwest Western, per hour to about 10-15 km. To 2001 hours on 30 / 9, located in the center of the storm at about 16.6 degrees latitude, 108.0 degrees East Business, from the coast of Quang Tri - Da Nang about 40 km to the east. The strongest winds near the center of the storm power level 12, level 13 (ie from 118 to 149 km an hour), shock level 14, level 15. From the center of the storm, the danger from high winds and over 10 for a radius of about 200 km, from grade 6 and over a radius of 350 km.
Within the next 48 to 72 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and north-west Western, per hour to about 10-15 km, directly affect the provinces from Quang Binh to Da Nang to Chinese territory Laos. To 01 hours on January 10, at the center of the storm located about 17.2 degrees latitude, 105.2 degrees East Economy. The strongest winds near the center of the storm power level 8 (ie from 62 to 74 km per hour), shock level 9, level 10. From the center of the storm, the winds dangerous level 6 and over a radius of about 100 km.
Because the impact of storms, the North Sea and the East Sea (including the waters of the Paracel Islands), Gulf of Tonkin and the southern waters of the provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai with winds level 9, level 10, the increased level 11, level 12, near the center of the storm passing through level 13, shock level 14, level 15. Intense fluctuations. Provinces from Nghe An to Quang Ngai rain medium to very heavy rain to. Necessary precautions flash floods and landslides in the mountains, flooding in the valley.
Besides the effects associated with southwest monsoon active, the area between the South China Sea and sea of Binh Thuan - Ca Mau winds sixth grade, seventh grade, eighth grade shock. Sea powerful.
News next play at 5:30 on the 28 ninths.
Information Development at: 3h30

Link
KEH - I don't want anything to do with your 'stir stick'.

Is it raining in Charleston at the moment? That pressure drop is interesting.
Quoting P451:
24 Hours Loop:

What I believe will be our primary AOI region in about a week.




Or now... look at the blob south of panama! I think it has a eye!

jk but it looks impressive and may drift north.
Quoting IKE:
Put a log on the fire....inland Florida panhandle...

Tuesday Night
Cooler. Mostly clear. Lows around 52. Northwest winds around 5 mph.


We need some of that down here in Tampa Bay, IKE! We're still doing the 3 H's here- Hot, Hazy and Helping the utility co. ;-)
168. IKE
Quoting swampliliy:

We need some of that down here in Tampa Bay, IKE! We're still doing the 3 H's here- Hot, Hazy and Helping the utility co. ;-)


Here's your hump-day forecast.....

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82. North northeast wind around 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North northeast wind around 6 mph.


Here's the Atlantic tropical weather outlook>>>
Good evening!
Atlantic is... *yawn*.
#168- Cool beans, IKE! 6 to 8 degrees cooler- I'll take it.

Thanx :))))


very suspicious looking IMO. My blob-watching instincts tell me this is a good one.
173. JLPR
Quoting hurricane30:
Good Grief JLPR it's like FredEx all over again!


nope Fred-ex was a remnant low
Td-8-ex xD is only a swirl
Quoting winter123:


very suspicious looking IMO. My blob-watching instincts tell me this is a good one.

That's very interesting.


centered over panama, drifting northwest, ish.
The Panama blob seems to be heading into conditions not very favorable for development.

Ketsana is looking typhoonish.
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
New Blog Posted. Check It Out!! :)
Quoting Hurricane009:
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
New Blog Posted. Check It Out!! :)


do you have a new blog? i cant tell 'cos of all the exclamations
Quoting mikatnight:
Yeah, I got one for posting the "Get Smart" "Cone of Silence" during a discussion of the Cone of Error. I thought it was hilarious, but alas, I was the only one...

Sounds funny.
Some forum sites hire a minimum wage person working at their home to monitor the site and apply a printed set of rules. There may be some monitors that are more tolerant than others. One that is in their early 20s might not get the Get Smart reference. I know there is at least one that is not fond of *fish cartoons*.
Thanks For The Update Dr. Masters. Here is the Latest Satellite Images of The Central Atlantic.

- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Quoting DrNo:
I find that most mature people would not even consider the use of an "IGNORE" feature. It is akin to covering up your ears and going, "nah, nah, nah, I can't hear you."

In his recent post, P451 demonstrated that he is indeed immature, what, with his little rant. I can only wonder if he fell to the floor and started kicking his little feet into the air and pounding his fists.

Since P451 likes to ignore, then I will give him a reason to ignore me...

P451: You have too much time on your hands. Move out of your mother's house, get a real job, and then get a life! Stop playing "junior forecaster."

To those who don't use "ignore," I applaud you. Here's to free, open, and honest speech...


Completely agree. And your post was hidden. Why? I didn't do anything, maybe i want to read what everyone has to say, provided its related to the discussion. But because someone hit the minus or ignore or whatever, it was hidden.
Austistic2 - Time to take your meds... I don't want to see 8 - 10 million dead.
Quoting DrNo:
I find that most mature people would not even consider the use of an "IGNORE" feature. It is akin to covering up your ears and going, "nah, nah, nah, I can't hear you."



I think it is more akin to spraying dog repellent on your yard where you keep finding poo.

BTW: nah, nah, nah, I can't hear you. (anymore)
187. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
HOWEVER, there are 3 TD's and a TS Katsana is about to become a Typhoon, which is going to slam into Northern Vietnam sometime tomorrow!!

I hope it has some rapid deepening! Maybe like 150 mph and then stalls and drops about 90 inches of rain.

Vietnam 8-10 million causalities would be nice.


That's about as cruel a thing as someone could say on here.

You'll be happy to know I reported you.

As far as the ignore feature, I use it quite a bit. I have 2 on ignore that are trying like heck to get me involved in their childish thoughts.

I'm not playing along. Not at the age of 51.
188. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


That's about as cruel a thing as someone could say on here.

You'll be happy to know I reported you.

As far as the ignore feature, I use it quite a bit. I have 2 on ignore that are trying like heck to get me involved in their childish thoughts.

I'm not playing along. Not at the age of 51.


and I agree and applaud you :)
Autistic~ Ketsana's anti cyclone got caught up over Northern Philippines & can't catch up. Don't get your hopes up, even if there is a major stall & even then, that storm is so big there would be too much land interaction & upwelling. A 3 on their scale is ambitious, don't see anything worse than that.
Quoting Autistic2:
HOWEVER, there are 3 TD's and a TS Katsana is about to become a Typhoon, which is going to slam into Northern Vietnam sometime tomorrow!!

I hope it has some rapid deepening! Maybe like 150 mph and then stalls and drops about 90 inches of rain.

Vietnam 8-10 million causalities would be nice.


COME ON DUDE!! WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT!!

We fought a war that ended 34 yrs ago! We have made PEACE with the Vietnemese people!! They're are 84,000,000 + people there!! They are going to get a BIG HIT!! Our prayers should be that the Vietnam Government evacuates their flood prone areas and that they are SAFE!!

Tell ya what, how would YOU FEEL if someone placed you in a strange country with a CAT 5 TYPHOON coming and you had NO SHELTER? Pieces of your flesh would be scattered for 20 miles, in shreds!!!
TD 26's LCC is exposed but still forecasted to intensify and still very tiny.
2100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 155.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED AS CONVECTION, MOSTLY WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), HAS DEEPENED. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 18W IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AS THE VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 26 CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS MINIMAL BUT MARGINALLY IN
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.

And as a reminder JTWC designates this TD ad TD 18W while the RSMC (JMA) designates this as TD 26.
Quoting JLPR:


and I agree and applaud you :)


You should applaud him. IKE is 51 and he acts like a big cry baby over the season.
Quoting Autistic2:


Yes Yes you are right on both accounts. Just took my meds. I suppose it is wrong to hold common people accountible for the actions of our government and thiers......My bad I will edit my emotional response. Darn I don't handle those very well.




hmmmm moonlightcowboy???
An excert from my Outlook for the remainder of the season.

Forecasts for the MJO have recently become inconsistent with the Empirical Wave Propagation (EWP) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) predicting a modest upward pulse during the next 2 weeks.
196. IKE
Quoting Bordonaro:


COME ON DUDE!! WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT!!

We fought a war that ended 34 yrs ago! We have made PEACE with the Vietnemese people!! They're are 84,000,000 + people there!! They are going to get a BIG HIT!! Our prayers should be that the Vietnam Government evacuates their flood prone areas and that they are SAFE!!

Tell ya what, how would YOU FEEL if someone placed you in a strange country with a CAT 5 TYPHOON coming and you had NO SHELTER? Pieces of your flesh would be scattered for 20 miles, in shreds!!!


And if they had massive death and destruction guess who would be one of the first in line to help them....the USA would. Then more people could complain about Obama.
197. DrNo
"IKE" says that the comment made by "Autistic2" is cruel. I COMPLETELY agree.

I wonder, however... isn't it also cruel for people to sit on this blog day and night and wish for these storms to form, so that they can pass their time creating the illusion that they are weather experts?

Hmmmm.
The season is probably over if these conditions persist. The CFS is now postponing upward MJO during Octobner...

Photobucket

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

199. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmmm moonlightcowboy???


I saw where he got banned for life on here.

Good question Taz.
Quoting Skyepony:
Autistic~ Ketsana's anti cyclone got caught up over Northern Philippines & can't catch up. Don't get your hopes up, even if there is a major stall & even then, that storm is so big there would be too much land interaction & upwelling. A 3 on their scale is ambitious, don't see anything worse than that.


I dont think the upper anticyclone got caught over the Philippines since its in the upper atmosphere. Rather the LLCC is the one that decoupled due to land interaction.
Quoting Weather456:
An excert from my Outlook for the remainder of the season.

Forecasts for the MJO have recently become inconsistent with the Empirical Wave Propagation (EWP) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) predicting a modest upward pulse during the next 2 weeks.



vary true but even with a Weak EL Nino strong MJO or not it wont help bring down the wind shear all soo looking at the new 18Z mode runs that this comeing in on my little site i like show march is showing some Deep cold fronts
Quoting Weather456:
An excert from my Outlook for the remainder of the season.

Forecasts for the MJO have recently become inconsistent with the Empirical Wave Propagation (EWP) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) predicting a modest upward pulse during the next 2 weeks.


also there is 50% chance that MJO will affect TC activity in the following months.
Quoting IKE:


I saw where he got banned for life on here.

Good question Taz.



thanks IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



vary true but even with a Weak EL Nino strong MJO or not it wont help bring down the wind shear all soo looking at the new 18Z mode runs that this comeing in on my little site i like show march is showing some Deep cold fronts


yes Taz that is correct, but the season is not over

here's another excert

There have not been any recorded storms beyond mid-October for any El Nino year since 1994.

El Nino conditions coincide with increase frontal activity earlier than usual and that is basically the pattern we have been seeing all season. In addition, regardless of the NINO node, the seasonal transition to the cool season brings increase troughiness.
Its September 27th and we've only had 2 named storms this month, and 4 in the last half of August.. I'm lowering my predictions to 8 named storms, 3 Hurricanes, 2 Majors. I think the upcoming MJO increase might bump up our numbers some, +1 post season 9 storms.
Due to the excessive surface convergence at the surface, an extended upper anticyclonic flow has formed. This is helping to relax wind shear over these systems. The MJO is also contributing to this by increasing precip over the region. Notice how high the ambient wind shear values are. This is why it is not improbable to get tropical cyclogenesis in SW Caribbean in October despite the high surrounging wind shear. However, the models seem to be backing off the MJO propagation in the Atlantic somewhat.



Quoting Weather456:


yes Taz that is correct, but the season is not over

here's another excert

There have not been any recorded storms beyond mid-October for any El Nino year since 1994.

El Nino conditions coincide with increase frontal activity earlier than usual and that is basically the pattern we have been seeing all season. In addition, regardless of the NINO node, the seasonal transition to the cool season brings increase troughiness.




so true 456
209. P451
Quoting winter123:


Completely agree. And your post was hidden. Why? I didn't do anything, maybe i want to read what everyone has to say, provided its related to the discussion. But because someone hit the minus or ignore or whatever, it was hidden.


I never used the ignore feature until the past week when I realized that what appeared to be several people were just one looking to fill up the blog with trash with the sole intent on annoying everyone.

Dr No, aka StormNo, StormTop, StormKat, StormMasterG, etc etc etc...is one.

JFV/WeatherStudent has several of his own.

Iceman/xcool/bxtown and their myspace/twitter mess of a disaster they've infested the blog with is certainly another.

I have complained with no luck so I have chosen to use the ignore feature.

I don't ignore people I disagree with I ignore those who are GIMMICK POSTERS only here to screw around on the blog because they are SO SAD that it has become a hobby of theirs to troll a WEATHER BLOG!

If you can't spot them now you will in time.

Now, if you wish to read all posts, in the upper right portion of every page is a filter menu.

===

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted Filter:

===

Filter:

What you do here is choose SHOW ALL.

And you'll see all posts.

Now why do some posts not show up? That's because a number of people have clicked the MINUS feature on their posts.

The sad part is the trolls can do this as well thus minimizing the posts of good users so everyone should have this feature set to SHOW ALL - and then use their ignore lists to filter out those who are constant offenders.

The trolls can also use their multiple handles to report a good user and get them banned - tricking the admin into thinking multiple users are upset with one - when it's just one turd with multiple names annoying the hell out of everyone.


I've said enough on this topic, it's absurd it has not just continued but been allowed to propogate unchecked by the admin, and it has forced several GOOD USERS to stop posting frequently.

So I urge ALL AND EVERY veteran and good user to report these idiots and help clean up this blog.


----this does NOT pertain to the known regulars who decide to go a bit off topic time to time - that is NOT the issue at all.

This is about the three odd kiddies with three dozen names turning this place into a playground.

Spot them, report them, email the admin as added insurance, and hopefully we will be done with them.

.....and this is the LAST I will ever post on the problem.

If it persists unchecked I will simply find another place to talk weather.

Taz how you been? I have not seen you in a long time. Is IKE's complaining getting to you?
211. 789
Quoting futuremet:
The season is probably over if these conditions persist. The CFS is now postponing upward MJO during Octobner...

Photobucket

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

thank you !how are you today ! whats the gfs think on the mjo
212. DrNo
P451:

Bye.
213. P451
Quoting Ameister12:
The Panama blob seems to be heading into conditions not very favorable for development.


As 456 has commented on there is a lot of energy down there and their "monsoon season" has begun.

You don't focus on any particular blog at the moment you look at the overall persistent energy and you watch for favorable conditions to take over the sw caribbean.

There are several models that hint that such favorable conditions might occur in about 7 to 10 days.

So you just watch it. Not a particular blob but the persistent energy and look for the conditions to become favorable for development.

Remember, this time of year, things are slow to occur, but these areas of convection are known to persist for a week or more.

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Taz how you been? I have not seen you in a long time. Is IKE's complaining getting to you?



POOF on the Ignore you go
Quoting P451:


As 456 has commented on there is a lot of energy down there and their "monsoon season" has begun.

You don't focus on any particular blog at the moment you look at the overall persistent energy and you watch for favorable conditions to take over the sw caribbean.

There are several models that hint that such favorable conditions might occur in about 7 to 10 days.

So you just watch it. Not a particular blob but the persistent energy and look for the conditions to become favorable for development.

Remember, this time of year, things are slow to occur, but these areas of convection are known to persist for a week or more.




lol, I cannot take credit for that. I did not say it but whoever did is 100% correct. As for development, that downward surge of westerlies and dry air will have to lift out.
216. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



POOF on the Ignore you go


There's one of the 2 that act's like an 8 year-old on here.

I am sooo glad for the ignore feature.

The kicker is hurricaneseason2006 complained earlier in the season about me talking about my home weather on here.

This blog is a joke sometimes...actually a majority of the time.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Animated GIF created using VirtualDub (Freeware)
218. P451
Quoting Weather456:



lol, I cannot take credit for that. I did not say it but whoever did is 100% correct. As for development, that downward surge of westerlies and dry air will have to lift out.


I thought you had? My mistake! But you do agree so now you've said it. LOL!

I do feel this is where we will be watching for the remainder of the season for any significant development.

This region of convection looks like it will continue to wax and wane without really heading anywhere.

Quoting IKE:


There's one of the 2 that act's like an 8 year-old on here.

I am sooo glad for the ignore feature.

The kicker is hurricaneseason2006 complained earlier in the season about me talking about my home weather on here.

This blog is a joke sometimes...actually a majority of the time.





yup all so the blog can be funny
I don't think this blog is a joke. I think if we pull together and stop complaining and arguing over the 2009 Hurricane Season, we could make the blog an educational forum. Today we had some healthy discussions on the re-classification of 90L, 92L and the NJ lows - no name calling and no point fingers and I'm sure it was educational to some. In addition, it is up to each user to make the most of the blog. Dr. Masters would be disappointed if he found out his blog was a joke most of the time.

The season is quiet, we got that established, so instead of hanging over it lets talk about the winter forecast, the 2010 hurricane season, and so fourth. Don't create an atmosphere of boring, dull and dead, but rather hopeful, interesting and fun.
Quoting Weather456:
I don't think this blog is a joke. I think if we pull together and stop complaining and arguing over the 2009 Hurricane, we could make the blog an educational forum. Today we had some healthy discussions on the re-classification of 90L, 92L and the NJ lows - no name calling and no point fingers and I'm sure it was educational to some. In addition, it is up to each user to make the most of the blog. I'm Dr. Masters would be disappointed if he found out his blog was a joke most of the time.

The season is quiet, we got that established, so instead of hanging over it lets talk about the winter forecast, the 2010 hurricane season, and so fourth.



ok whats talk about snow on the gulf coast
Quoting Weather456:
I don't think this blog is a joke. I think if we pull together and stop complaining and arguing over the 2009 Hurricane Season, we could make the blog an educational forum. Today we had some healthy discussions on the re-classification of 90L, 92L and the NJ lows - no name calling and no point fingers and I'm sure it was educational to some. In addition, it is up to each user to make the most of the blog. I'm Dr. Masters would be disappointed if he found out his blog was a joke most of the time.

The season is quiet, we got that established, so instead of hanging over it lets talk about the winter forecast, the 2010 hurricane season, and so fourth.
Or the Pacific. ;)
Quoting Tazmanian:



ok whats talk about snow on the gulf coast


the climate models are in good agreement that El Nino will bring wetter and below normal temps to the region, increasing the chance for conditions to support snow.
whats talk about the 2009 winter
Quoting Weather456:


the climate models are in good agreement that El Nino will bring wetter and below normal temps to the region, increasing the chance for conditions to support snow.




coool
456 what do climate models show for CA
211

The CFS is postponing the MJO. The GFS still expects a significant surge.

Quoting futuremet:
211

The CFS is postponing the MJO. The GFS still expects a significant surge.




how no if that map is %100 right??
229. xcool
can we JUST get along HERE ON .??????
FLASH TRAFFIC::::ReliefWEB

Philippine storm leaves 52 dead, 280,000 homeless: govt

Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Date: 27 Sep 2009


by Jason Gutierrez

MANILA, Sept 27, 2009 (AFP) - At least 52 people were killed and more than a quarter of a million displaced after the heaviest rain in more than four decades plunged the Philippine capital into turmoil, officials said Sunday.
Quoting futuremet:
Due to the excessive surface convergence at the surface, an extended upper anticyclonic flow has formed. This is helping to relax wind shear over these systems. The MJO is also contributing to this by increasing precip over the region. Notice how high the ambient wind shear values are. This is why it is not improbable to get tropical cyclogenesis in SW Caribbean in October despite the high surrounging wind shear. However, the models seem to be backing off the MJO propagation in the Atlantic somewhat.




Excellent analysis .... ....

232. xcool
Dr. Masters MADE THIS blog for education to lean weather.not for drama .soso on sos on.?
Quoting Tazmanian:
456 what do climate models show for CA


you guys have a 40-60% chance of below normal temperatures and increase rainfall. Basically, you guys can go both ways. Typical El Nino years would go with 60% chance of both variables.
Quoting Weather456:


you guys have a 40-60% chance of below normal temperatures and increase rainfall. Basically, you guys can go both ways. Typical El Nino years would go with 60% chance of both variables.



thanks
874
fxus64 klix 272012
afdlix




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
312 PM CDT sun Sep 27 2009



Synopsis...
latest surface analysis showed a broad 1015mb over northwest Gulf with southwest flow over Texas and northwest Louisiana.
12z lix
sounding showed precipitable water value around 1.3 and northwest flow from the surface to 700mb.
Cape value was 2900j/kg but continued middle
layers dry out has inhibited convection this afternoon.
In addition...the dry lower levels will allow temperatures to cool tonight but heat up Monday afternoon.
Upstream...water vapor depicted a very strong wave over the northern plains. Progressive flow will allow this wave to move east quickly and push the associated axis through the forecast area Monday night.
Some moisture will pool along the axis Monday night with precipitable water values up to 1.4 to 1.5 inches.
Will insert 10 percent...but keep it dry for now...would not rule out an isolated thunderstorm Monday night.
With a large cyclonic circulation deepening over the Great Lakes/northeast
Continental U.S. Late Monday intoTuesday...thickness layers will drop off
early Tuesday morning across the area.
The strongest cold air advection will reside across the east zones and east waters.
Reluctant to bite on low temperatures below 50f Wednesday morning...look for some areas may experience three nights in the 50s middle week.



Quoting Weather456:


yes Taz that is correct, but the season is not over

here's another excert

There have not been any recorded storms beyond mid-October for any El Nino year since 1994.

El Nino conditions coincide with increase frontal activity earlier than usual and that is basically the pattern we have been seeing all season. In addition, regardless of the NINO node, the seasonal transition to the cool season brings increase troughiness.


Minor correction: Tropical Storm Otto formed in November of 2004, which was an El Nino year, although Otto developed from an extratropical storm far out in the open Atlantic. Really more of a technicality really...
here is my fun little mode run site


Link
So far the global conditions we have seen over the past summer coincide with El Nino events and becuz El Nino conditions are amplified/more pronounced and developed in the winter, you make a reasonable forecast based on an El Nino template.
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Minor correction: Tropical Storm Otto formed in November of 2004, which was an El Nino year, although Otto developed from an extratropical storm far out in the open Atlantic. Really more of a technicality really...


technicality indeed, since 2004 was not a classic El Nino year.
241. jipmg
So a cold front in late september for Southern florida, when do the models indicate the next one is
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is my fun little mode run site


Link


This site has all of the models you will ever need

New model sites are added weekly

all of the models------------->>>here

*bookmark it* It will come in handy
good evening guys, havent been on much lately, tailgaiting, the notre dame purdue game last night, and hanging out, plus homework have kept me pretty busy.

and the high here in tuesday is supposed to be 58 :P
Quoting Weather456:
I don't think this blog is a joke. I think if we pull together and stop complaining and arguing over the 2009 Hurricane Season, we could make the blog an educational forum. Today we had some healthy discussions on the re-classification of 90L, 92L and the NJ lows - no name calling and no point fingers and I'm sure it was educational to some. In addition, it is up to each user to make the most of the blog. Dr. Masters would be disappointed if he found out his blog was a joke most of the time.

The season is quiet, we got that established, so instead of hanging over it lets talk about the winter forecast, the 2010 hurricane season, and so fourth. Don't create an atmosphere of boring, dull and dead, but rather hopeful, interesting and fun.


Sorry i misssed that. What are your views in summary on those three lows? Seems like, respectively, they should have been TD, STS, TS
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening guys, havent been on much lately, tailgaiting, the notre dame purdue game last night, and hanging out, plus homework have kept me pretty busy.

and the high here in tuesday is supposed to be 58 :P


good evening Matt, kinda miss those days of homework.
Quoting xcool:
can we JUST get along HERE ON .??????


Yes, we can, if certain things happen, or stop happening. I'm no weather expert but I know a lot about 11 year old kids. This is the sort of thing they say to start a fight, "Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Taz how you been? I have not seen you in a long time. Is IKE's complaining getting to you?"

Taz refrained from taking the bait. Either someone has a personal grudge against Ike, or they want a forum with no decorum whatsoever. I think it is the grudge one and there is not room for that here.


Quoting winter123:


Sorry i misssed that. What are your views in summary on those three lows? Seems like, respectively, they should have been TD, STS, TS


well basically there have some pretty good arguments from opposing sides on 90L and he NJ low.

I'm less confident with the NJ low being STS even though it came close, 90L came closer. But rather my main target was 92L. My views, respectively are

TD, STS, warm seclusion.
Quoting xcool:
can we JUST get along HERE ON .??????


Hey again, iceman. :)
Quoting jipmg:
So a cold front in late september for Southern florida, when do the models indicate the next one is
In early/mid october. This one should be stronger then this one coming through now.
Quoting Weather456:


good evening Matt, kinda miss those days of homework.


I'm sure I will miss them, but right now they can be a pain, that is an intense front that is going to come through. 40 mph winds and highs around 60
Now, I have a real question.

Where would I look to find out how El Nino will affect the High Sonoran Desert region of NM? We have had a lot of rain lately, and the kiddies can't go outside for recess.

Is there a lot of snow in our future?

Thanks,
Quoting Weather456:


well basically there have some pretty good arguments from opposing sides on 90L and he NJ low.

I'm less confident with the NJ low being STS even though it came close, 90L came closer. But rather my main target was 92L. My views, respectively are

TD, STS, warm seclusion.


90L and NJ had deep convection over the center, I don't understand how they weren't at the very least subtropical. And if they are, they should have been named. So i basically agree.
Quoting futuremet:


This site has all of the models you will ever need

New model sites are added weekly

all of the models------------->>>here

*bookmark it* It will come in handy



thank you
Quoting TexNowNM:
Now, I have a real question.

Where would I look to find out how El Nino will affect the High Sonoran Desert region of NM? We have had a lot of rain lately, and the kiddies can't go outside for recess.

Is there a lot of snow in our future?

Thanks,


I read something about the possibility of wet snow developing across New Mexico during October.
255. xcool
KoritheMan hey

hey matt
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan hey

hey matt


hello
Is there a place I can search the entire site for info on something? For example I want to read about the MJO because I dont even know what it is. I would rather look it up so I am not asking stupid questions when I dont even have a begining understanding of what my question is.
Zebralove, that is a great question and I am hoping someone answers you. I know exactly how you feel.

Thanks, KoritheMan for your answer. I hope it snows!!!!!
260. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening guys, havent been on much lately, tailgaiting, the notre dame purdue game last night, and hanging out, plus homework have kept me pretty busy.

and the high here in tuesday is supposed to be 58 :P


homework sucks! :P

the blog is pretty quiet
Quoting JLPR:


homework sucks! :P

the blog is pretty quiet


no doubt, gives me time to work on it though.

354 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
TERRE HAUTE TO RUSHVILLE LINE ON MONDAY. THESE WILL BE THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

So, Tornadodude, are you Notre Dame, or Perdue? Both are great schools!
263. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


no doubt, gives me time to work on it though.

354 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
TERRE HAUTE TO RUSHVILLE LINE ON MONDAY. THESE WILL BE THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA IN SEVERAL MONTHS.



down here the weather is boringly quiet
but im happy with it XD
Well if no one can tell me where to look for it can someone tell me what MJO stands for and what it is?
i this noted that we have TD 19W
266. JLPR
Quoting zebralove:
Well if no one can tell me where to look for it can someone tell me what MJO stands for and what it is?


the simple explanation
Link

the more complex and complete one :)
Link
Quoting zebralove:
Well if no one can tell me where to look for it can someone tell me what MJO stands for and what it is?


INTERANNUAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS
268. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:
i this noted that we have TD 19W


the W-pac is going nuts :|
Quoting zebralove:
Well if no one can tell me where to look for it can someone tell me what MJO stands for and what it is?


The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a large wave that moves from west to east, enhancing tropical moisture. The scale of this oscillation or wave is on the order of 40 days, compare that to a tropical wave which is about 1-2 days.

You can use many sites to find info on the MJO, but the best source for me is text books.
270. JLPR
and there we go

dead blog :|
Quoting TexNowNM:
So, Tornadodude, are you Notre Dame, or Perdue? Both are great schools!


Well, I go to Purdue, so have to go for them ha

Quoting JLPR:


down here the weather is boringly quiet
but im happy with it XD


whatever works for you :P
Another TD just formed, the Pacific just exploded lol.

JMA: TD 27
JTWC: TD 19

And look how cute it is. :D
And like TD 26/18, predicted to intensify to a Typhoon.

Quoting Weather456:


The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a large wave that moves from east to west, enhancing tropical moisture. The scale of this oscillation or wave is on the order of 40 days, compare that to a tropical wave which is about 1-2 days.

You can use many sites to find info on the MJO, but the best source for me is text books.


I thought MJO propagated west to east, originating in the Indian Ocean?
Well, then, go Purdue!

I wonder where Futuremet goes to school. As a teacher, I wonder about that kind of thing.

Good night all, those darn housework fairies passed me up, again!!!

Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought MJO propagated west to east, originating in the Indian Ocean?


sorry got my bearings mixed up. west to east
Quoting TexNowNM:
Well, then, go Purdue!

I wonder where Futuremet goes to school. As a teacher, I wonder about that kind of thing.

Good night all, those darn housework fairies passed me up, again!!!



Boiler up!

have a goodnight,

so did anyone else notice on the tropical page that there is an odd image under the title "western pacific"?
Both are forecast to become typhoons heading in the general direction of the Philippines



Quoting Weather456:


I dont think the upper anticyclone got caught over the Philippines since its in the upper atmosphere. Rather the LLCC is the one that decoupled due to land interaction.


I think we're are saying near the same thing. It would be on the 5-day java loop. When it crossed the Philippines the anticyclone was just N of the Depression (wasn't even named yet) & much closer than now. As Ketsana formed & moved on west the anticyclone stayed on the N tip til late last night. Several storms have left their anticyclone over Cuba. Especially the mountainous parts, like N Philippines is. They were never truly coupled & I refered to the anticyclone as being hung up because it was the one left behind.
279. xcool



shear map!
Recent progression of extratropical systems in the south Pacific, freshen and increase a surge of monsoon south-westerlies south of the monsoon trough which initiated the cyclogenesis of all 3 cyclones. They are basically following each other along the trough.
tornadodude- you mean this? lol. South atlantic off season tropical storm!

283. amd
Quoting xcool:



shear map!


i don't think that shear forecast is very accurate. For instance, they show shear in the central Caribbean currently between 9 to 18 m/s (18 to 35 kts). However, shear in some parts of the central Caribbean are greater than 60 knots currently (closer to 35 m/s).

Current Caribbean Shear Map
Quoting xcool:



shear map!



i find the WU wind shear map worth less the cimss is a march more better wind shear maps
Good evening everyone,

I've been wondering two things lately
First, does anyone know of a link to archived australian satellite images. Speciffically, the duststorm that affected the east coast on the 23rd?

Second, what ever happened to that huge saturn-cane from 2006? Is that fade away or did it just drop out of all the news and whatnot?
Quoting winter123:
tornadodude- you mean this? lol. South atlantic off season tropical storm!



yeah haha thats what I was referring to, pretty funny
Quoting amd:


i don't think that shear forecast is very accurate. For instance, they show shear in the central Caribbean currently between 9 to 18 m/s (18 to 35 kts). However, shear in some parts of the central Caribbean are greater than 60 knots currently (closer to 35 m/s).

Current Caribbean Shear Map




i don't think that shear forecast is very accurate


yup you are %100 right
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Good evening everyone,

I've been wondering two things lately
First, does anyone know of a link to archived australian satellite images. Speciffically, the duststorm that affected the east coast on the 23rd?

Second, what ever happened to that huge saturn-cane from 2006? Is that fade away or did it just drop out of all the news and whatnot?



hm interesting. article from 08. I think the reason its not in the news is cause it just sits there. not changing.

Link
So after reading all that on the MJO, ....
1) Is there MJO in the pacific right now that is causing all the convection hot spots creating all the storms out there right now?
2 )If the MJO is 30-60 days long does it just disapear after that like a cloud that has gone through its growth cycle and then dissipates? 3) Is the MJO going to move over the GOM and Atlantic bringing the possibility for more convection occurance to those areas?
Thanks for all the help learning here I feel like I have a new understanding of the MJO...at least I think I do.
290. xcool
Tazmanian thank.
Quoting xcool:
Tazmanian thank.




your welcome
Lows in the upper 60's in Lake Worth Wednesday morning! Highs in the mid 80's. At least it's a start and hope it's a trend.
cool. thanks.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lows in the upper 60's in Lake Worth Wednesday morning! Highs in the mid 80's. At least it's a start and hope it's a trend.
Where???? Lake Worth Texas???
Lake Worth, Fla.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lake Worth, Fla.
Ohhh....
WOW - 60's in Lake Worth...

I hope it gets into the low 70's upper 60's in South Florida.
From 2 ships near Ketsana

CMA CGM Nilgai

Last reported at 2009-Sep-27 00:00 UTC. Time now 2009-Sep-28 01:09 UTC.
Position N 1512', E 11230'.

Length 260.1 m; beam 32.3 m; draft 12.6 m.

Wind from 300 at 25 knots

Waves 2.5 meters (8 feet), 4 second period

Barometer 998.5 mb
Air temperature 26.5 C
Dewpoint 24.5 C

Bunga Pelangi Dua

Last reported at 2009-Sep-26 23:00 UTC. Time now 2009-Sep-28 01:12 UTC.
Position N 1500', E 11430'.

Length 276 m; beam 37.1 m; draft 14.1 m.

Wind from 330 at 25 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 10 second period

Barometer 1000.0 mb
Air temperature 24.0 C
Dewpoint 22.6 C
Water temperature 25.0 C
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lows in the upper 60's in Lake Worth Wednesday morning! Highs in the mid 80's. At least it's a start.


Definitely a start,hopefully during the next few weeks we'll get a break on this humid airmass over south florida. Unfortunatly the weak front located over northern florida should sag south without much fanfare as there wont be any dynamics/cold air behind it once it reaches the florida straits.
highs in the upper 50's here on tuesday
weather dot com says no such luck for us in South Florida... Lows in the extreme upper 70's and highs at 90...

Still Hot and Humid.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
It really hasn't been that bad of a summer down here. But I am hoping the winter is kick arse. Adrian, do you remember when we had a really first burst of cold air that came down the pike last year?
Quoting winter123:
tornadodude- you mean this? lol. South atlantic off season tropical storm!

What? Is it real?
GeoffreyWPB - You are in West Palm Beach, FL?
I was going off the WU forcasts.
This could be a major flood situation around Da Nang and Hue areas. Mountains just inland from the coast.

I live in Lake Worth. The next city south of West Palm. In fact, from where I live, I could walk across the city lines in a couple of minutes.
TWC site has us down in the lower 70's. Still a tad bit milder than what it has been.
Ketsana:


18W:


19W:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I live in Lake Worth. The next city south of West Palm. In fact, from where I live, I could walk across the city lines in a couple of minutes.


I've been to Lake Worth. In fact I drive through it on my way to Bartow, FL...
Although I haven't had to do that drive in quite awhile.

You have had a mild summer there? I am happy you did... Down here it has been so hot that even at work with 650 tons of a/c we are hot. (The chilller has actually failed because of the heat)

I can usually cool the house off and in the middle of day, unless it is raining I can't. I want winter bad.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It really hasn't been that bad of a summer down here. But I am hoping the winter is kick arse. Adrian, do you remember when we had a really first burst of cold air that came down the pike last year?


Yea sure do i had to be at work that morning at 5:30. That was crazy for south florida standards it really begins to get painful if your caught outside for us down here who aren't used to those cold temps.
I was just eyeing Da Nang

Da Nang
Temperature: 81 F
Dew Point: 75 F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: N at 29mph
Pressure: 29.50in
Precipitation: -in
Daily Precip.: 0.00in
have some nice looking storms headed my way, tornado watch just to my west with some low top super cells heading this way. may see a tornado warning for a couple here in a minute, the rotation looks strong and there is a hook with one

link
Tiyan, Guam NWS
Tropical Cyclone Warnings For "19W"
=================================

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI...FARAULEP AND FAIS.
The record low for Lake Worth on Sept. 30 is 68 set in 1980! I like the look for this winter season!
Hi, hope everyone had a great weekend.
Quoting tornadodude:
have some nice looking storms headed my way, tornado watch just to my west with some low top super cells heading this way. may see a tornado warning for a couple here in a minute, the rotation looks strong and there is a hook with one

link


Yup... I'm listnen.
320. 789
Quoting zebralove:
Well if no one can tell me where to look for it can someone tell me what MJO stands for and what it is?
futurmets web blog has a complete vidio thats verygood
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KETSANA (T0916)
9:00 AM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ketsana (975 hPa) located at 16.0N 112.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
425 NM from the center in south quadrant
375 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.6N 110.2E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.7N 107.9E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm
72 HRS: 16.7N 105.9E - Tropical Depression
Quoting juslivn:


Yup... I'm listnen.


could get interesting, the winds veer quite a bit with height
789 - Madden Julien Oscillation.. In anuthsell it states whether the air is conducive or not for cyclogensis.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 5N33W TO 16N29W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 27W-37W AS NOTED ON THE TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 27W-34W.



SO LARGE
Quoting Dakster:
789 - Madden Julien Oscillation.. In anuthsell it states whether the air is conducive or not for cyclogensis.


My God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've spent 4 years reading this blog...and you just nailed it in one line....
329. 789
Quoting Dakster:
789 - Madden Julien Oscillation.. In anuthsell it states whether the air is conducive or not for cyclogensis.
thank you!
Quoting presslord:


My God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've spent 4 years reading this blog...and you just nailed it in one line....
Quoting 789:
thank you!


You're both welcome. Sometimes not being a met makes it easier... I too spent alot of time reading the PAGES about the MJO... Which wouldn't help 789 understand it at the moment. Keeping reading 789 and the met terms will get easier and then you can go indepth.

I am still learning a whole lot as well - and have a long long way to go.
Dakster, there is no village called Poon Tang, unless you're looking at a Borat movie... anyway, I don't see why this little low I cited above can't make something of itself.

Will check back in the a.m. Goodnight.
Chicklit - I have a bunch of USNAVY friends that would disagree. They swear it is located in Vietnam...
789 I went to futuremet's blog but couldn't find any video am I just blind? could you tell me where specifically to look? thanks
actually Dak...it's more a state of mind...
Quoting tornadodude:


could get interesting, the winds veer quite a bit with height


The blog here went from 48 people to 458 in seconds....moving soooo fast. be safe.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2300z 27SEPT)
============================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 4.1N 168.5E or 270 NM south of Kwajalein Atoll. Animated water vapor imagery shows deep convection starting to consolidate about a poorly defined albeit, developing low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR
Quoting presslord:
actually Dak...it's more a state of mind...


Isn't it the whole mind and body thing...

I guess this means you know why the Navy has Marines on their ships too...
my Dad is a retired Marine Corps Col..I was born at Quantico and raised in Jarhead World...
Quoting juslivn:


The blog here went from 48 people to 458 in seconds....moving soooo fast. be safe.


yeah, it is moving quickly, I'll try, thanks!
You got it then... Press...
342. 789
Quoting zebralove:
789 I went to futuremet's blog but couldn't find any video am I just blind? could you tell me where specifically to look? thanks
soory not but if you catch futur met im sure he will link you plus what dakster said is very true positive mjo is updraft from the ocean negative is downdrating cyclone thriv on positive
343. amd
proof of the large wind field with Tropical Storm Ketsana.

Da Nang Vietnam, about 250 miles west of the center associated with the tropical storm already has winds of 30 mph from the north with gusts of 44 mph.

Da Nang Weather

the center of soon to be typhoon Ketsana will probably end up passing just north of Da Nang at landfall.

Also a ship about 150 miles to the sse of Ketsana is reporting 41 knot winds (would like to know if these winds are 1 min or 10 min).

Safmarine Makutu
344. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, it is moving quickly, I'll try, thanks!


Looks pretty ripe anywhere in the S half of IL.
Ya'll stay awake!

Higher surface dewpoints trying to move in ahead of the front.


Nice theta-e ridge (a measure of instability) lines up with the dewpoints.


The saving grace from tornadoes, would be if these storms remain elevated.

Quoting beell:


Looks pretty ripe anywhere in the S half of IL.
Ya'll stay awake!

Higher surface dewpoints trying to move in ahead of the front.


Nice theta-e ridge (a measure of instability) line up with the dewpoints.


The saving grace from tornadoes, would be if these storms remain elevated.



yeah, could be bad, I think they are having a problem sustaining updrafts, or so it appears on radar
the pressure is decently low:

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 27, 9:54 pm EDT

Fair

66 °F
(19 °C)
Humidity: 68 %
Wind Speed: S 9 MPH
Barometer: 29.53" (999.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 55 °F (13 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Here is the GFS, 168hrs out.
Tropics, Very Quiet. Dang Wind Shear!
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Huge Storm...

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
349. beell
A couple of snippets from the Meso Discussion at 9:14PM CDT this evening and the Tornado Watch issued at 8:25PM CDT


Mesoscale Discussion 2039
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP FARTHER SWD
INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TENDENCY FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET.

Low level moisture may be "not too bad".

Tornado Watch 745
INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NOW NEAR STL
INTO CNTRL/NRN IL STORMS LATER TONIGHT FURTHER SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
TORNADOES GIVEN FACT THAT FLOW IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SIZABLE SLY COMPONENT BENEATH 50+ KT WLY 700 MB FLOW.
Quoting Dakster:
Chicklit - I have a bunch of USNAVY friends that would disagree. They swear it is located in Vietnam...
"Poon Tang" - a euphanism for young, unaware, gullible, "sexy", females of the species Homo sapiens.
Quoting Bryant193wx:
Here is the GFS, 168hrs out.
Tropics, Very Quiet. Dang Wind Shear!
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
beell:

I think the storms are also racing out in front of the cold front too much also, and if the cold front slows at all, then substantial moisture may move in and allow the storms to become sustained. the storms develop, move quickly, then dissipate, and then reform in the same areas again.
actually, the storms appear to be forming a squall line link
Looks more like late October or early November...

355. beell
That sounds about right, tornadodude. Once the squall line forms the risk goes down. Don't think the cold front is gonna slow down much.

Which is why imo, the storms that may get surface based out ahead of the cold front where the richer moisture is located pose the greatest "conditional" risk. And that would point to areas in southern IL. Or at least farther south than the current activity.
Quoting beell:
That sounds about right, tornadodude. Once the squall line forms the risk goes down. Don't think the cold front is gonna slow down much.

Which is why imo, the storms that may get surface based out ahead of the cold front where the richer moisture is located pose the greatest "conditional" risk. And that would point to areas in southern IL. Or at least farther south than the current activity.


yeah, that makes sense. The storm near Bloomington Illinois is producing penny sized hail, but yeah, that air needs to moisten up a little more. the pressure in this area is really low
357. beell
This is the LFC or "Level of Free Convection" chart. Note the lower LFC heights lined up pretty good with the cold front-providing the lift. LFC's are a lot higher to the east-meaning elevated convection. So...ya'll may be ok from the the Dorthy things.
Insert standard "opinion only disclaimer" here!

Quoting beell:
This is the LFC or "Level of Free Convection" chart. Note the lower LFC heights lined up pretty good with the cold front-providing the lift. LFC's are a lot higher to the east-meaning elevated convection. So...ya'll may be ok from the the Dorthy things.
Insert standard "opinion only disclaimer" here!



Yeah, I see that, probably just some winds, and due to the cold air coming in, we could have some hail also
TORNADO WARNING
ILC031-197-280315-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0015.090928T0249Z-090928T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

* AT 948 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMER GLEN...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ORLAND PARK...AND TINLEY PARK BY 955 PM...
OAK FOREST...CRESTWOOD...AND ALSIP BY 1000 PM...
MIDLOTHIAN...POSEN...MARKHAM...AND BLUE ISLAND BY 1005 PM...
PHOENIX BY 1010 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE
ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

&&

Quoting tornadodude:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.4N 144.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 10 knots
I would think the warm Great Lakes would intensify the thunderstorm lines quite a lot!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.



haha yeah, well I plan on doing some of that this spring and summer
366. beell
Anybody having trouble with the SPC charts throwing up a certificate error?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks more like late October or early November...



Sure not feeling it yet though. Ike's been promising this for couple of days now. He better be right or I'm gonna go smack him.
This buoy should be fun to watch:

Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.



I'm watching Family Guy... oooo a piece of candy....oooo a piece of candy....
Quoting PcolaDan:


Sure not feeling it yet though. Ike's been promising this for couple of days now. He better be right or I'm gonna go smack him.

Give it time Dan...the changes will come gradually....a few degrees at a time.
Quoting tornadodude:
TORNADO WARNING
ILC031-197-280315-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0015.090928T0249Z-090928T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

* AT 948 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMER GLEN...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ORLAND PARK...AND TINLEY PARK BY 955 PM...
OAK FOREST...CRESTWOOD...AND ALSIP BY 1000 PM...
MIDLOTHIAN...POSEN...MARKHAM...AND BLUE ISLAND BY 1005 PM...
PHOENIX BY 1010 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE
ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

&&


Are u watching local?
One cool night for us---better than none though.

Link
Quoting juslivn:

Are u watching local?


no, Colts game (:, what is on it?
Discovery Channel...Raging Planet
377. beell
"book end vortices" Pretty common in cells embedded in a squall line. Usually weak and short-lived.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
One cool night for us---better than none though.

Link

I would call this a series of cool nights...for the foreseeable future for us, as we are used to lows around 75.
Overnight: Clear, with a steady temperature around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 54. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Looks like a nice week for you StSimons.
Quoting beell:
"book end vortices" Pretty common in cells embedded in a squall line. Usually weak and short-lived.


ah, ok, there are several of those on radar
Quoting Orcasystems:



Nah, we're on the same page on this.
Well, all local channels here, in IL. You may be north...fast...very fast into IN.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.


Many of those same guys, especially Josh Wurman and his radar truck. routinely park in the path of hurricanes, too. Last year they were on I-45 (I think) just inland of Galveston for Ike.
Quoting juslivn:
Well, all local channels here, in IL. You may be north...fast...very fast into IN.


well I live on West Lafayette and that squall line is headed right towards me, but it is weak right now.
Quoting beell:
Anybody having trouble with the SPC charts throwing up a certificate error?

Which ones?...haven't seen any.

Little CAPE to be found and the shear almost nonexistent. Interesting that "strong rotation" would appear on radar...the soundings would not make one expect that.
386. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


ah, ok, there are several of those on radar


The north end of the book-end responsible for many tornado warnings (where the turning is cyclonic). Usually only at the mid-levels. Would not turn my back on one. Even a weak F! on top of your house can cause some problems.

Just wouldn't chase one in a squall line!
I'm out. (a big hooray from many I'm sure)
Take care t-dude
387. beell
re the errors.
Good to hear, atmo. thanks
Quoting beell:


The north end of the book-end responsible for many tornado warnings (where the turning is cyclonic). Usually only at the mid-levels. Would not turn my back on one. Even a weak F! on top of your house can cause some problems.

Just wouldn't chase one in a squall line!
I'm out. (a big hooray from many I'm sure)
Take care t-dude


cant say that I would chase one there either, take care!
We haven't had a low below 75 in more than a week. It's been muggy as all get out atmosaggie.

And thanks, Geoffrey, is any of the cool air going to make it down to you?
A little bit...depending on who you go by...lows between upper 60's and lower 70's...Highs mid to upper 80's.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We haven't had a low below 75 in more than a week. It's been muggy as all get out atmosaggie.

And thanks, Geoffrey, is any of the cool air going to make it down to you?

Apparently yesterday was our last soak-your-shirt in 10 minutes day for us for a while. Luv a good cold (read: dry) front down here.

Not to mention the TC force-field they provide.
392. P451
Hello, Fall, so good to see you.





Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Discovery Channel...Raging Planet


If you're still watching this...

I saw this tornado from my 3rd floor apt about 2 miles away from it. Link1 Link2 In search and rescue after, I saw a Corvette bumper to bumper around a tree, and a van sticking out of a roof.
Rest of Tonight
Breezy. Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms...then slight chance of rain showers late. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.


Monday
Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of showers 20 percent.

Monday Night
Breezy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph.
sunny
Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Wednesday Night and Thursday
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
cloudy
Friday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

Saturday Night and Sunday
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
395. beell
385.
I see 47 knots of 0-6km shear on that skew-t.
Quoting beell:


The north end of the book-end responsible for many tornado warnings (where the turning is cyclonic). Usually only at the mid-levels. Would not turn my back on one. Even a weak F! on top of your house can cause some problems.

Just wouldn't chase one in a squall line!
I'm out. (a big hooray from many I'm sure)
Take care t-dude


Actually, your shared information is very appreciated! You explain things well.
Quoting beell:
385.
I see 47 knots of 0-6km shear on that skew-t.


interesting to note that a renegade storm is developing west of Terre Haute link
398. beell
Thanks, TexNowNM.
Lotta folks not into that kinda stuff during "The Season".


WWJP25 RJTD 280000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 982 HPA
AT 56N 169E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 56N 180E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
AT 38N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 132E TO 39N 135E 38N 138E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 132E TO 34N 129E 32N 127E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 127E TO 29N 124E 27N 121E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 09.4N 144.8E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 53N 160E 60N 164E
60N 180E 38N 180E 38N 167E 49N 174E 53N 160E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 156E SW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 166E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 162E TO 40N 172E 47N 180E 48N 175W.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0916 KETSANA (0916) 975 HPA AT 16.0N 112.8E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
400. beell
That one may be elevated.
That line between Bloomington, IL and Lafayette, IN ahead of the front maybe

Thanks for the chat. Some of us ain't young college students anymore who can stay up all night!
Quoting beell:
That one may be elevated.
That line between Bloomington, IL and Lafayette, IN ahead of the front maybe

Thanks for the chat. Some of us ain't young college students anymore who can stay up all night!


haha it has been a good chat, have a good night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1025 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

ILZ023-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-280430-
BENTON-FORD-IROQUOIS-JASPER-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN-NEWTON-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOWLER...GARY...GIBSON CITY...
KANKAKEE...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...VALPARAISO...WATSEKA
1025 PM CDT (1125 PM EDT) SUN SEP 27 2009

.NOW...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH HAIL...CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE LEADING EDGE OF
AT 1023 PM CDT...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM GARY TO
BEECHER TO CHATSWORTH. ANOTHER LINE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AROUND 45 MPH...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 1130 PM CDT.

$$

402. xcool



G'evening, all! What's up, guys? Has the season finally truly already conluded for this year?
404. P451
Ketsana looks like a RI candidate.... and 19W has that classic "egg in a basket" look. Let's just hope it does not hatch.





19W:

405. xcool
hi
Quoting P451:
Ketsana looks like a RI candidate.... and 19W has that classic "egg in a basket" look. Let's just hope it does not hatch.





19W:



It does not appear to be a pinhole eye

407. P451
Weird, 456, here's the AVN, same time: 230Z



*shrugs*

*confused*

the pressure here has dropped from 1000 mb to 996.2 mb in the last 3 hours
409. xcool
. i seeing winter coming soon guess time for my winter Clothing ready :(
410. P451
The others don't show it... just the AVN. Odd.

WV:



RGB:



rainbow:



..well, wait, the funktop does as well:

Quoting P451:
Weird, 456, here's the AVN, same time: 230Z



*shrugs*

*confused*



It is difficult to pick out on infrared but you can still notice it as the region of warmer temperatures

am starting too think that hurricane season is overe we got vary fall like temper comes too most of the USA and wind shear will be vary high out there with the Deep cold fronts that keep droping S
413. xcool



HERE U GOING matt.
414. P451
Ah, I see, yeah...I'm viewing it wrong. Just focused on the dot and not the overall region. Thanks.



Still, I think this thing is exploding. Does it not look Major to you? 115mph? I think it's next advisory will jump quite a bit.

well if you guys want name stroms too track looks like where going too have too look at the W PAC for them
Quoting xcool:



HERE U GOING matt.


thanks, another front this weekend
417. xcool
any time.


Quoting P451:
Ah, I see, yeah...I'm viewing it wrong. Just focused on the dot and not the overall region. Thanks.



Still, I think this thing is exploding. Does it not look Major to you? 115mph? I think it's next advisory will jump quite a bit.



yea the storm is intensifying..it looks like a cat 2 typhoon. If it continues then major likely.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 27, 11:54 pm EDT

Mostly Cloudy

69 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 61 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.43" (996.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 55 °F (13 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
420. xcool
.2 °F
Clear
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 53 ft

Rapid Fire Updates:

Slidell, Louisiana
Typhoon Katsana looks like she is RI!! The latest Navy Sat pics show she has one heck ova' eye wall developing, all the deep convection wrapping around eye!!

There is an official Vietnam Weather Service website!! Their servers are real slow, took 10 min to load the home page, gather it's better to leave that for the locals! They do have urgent advisories out, expecting up to 90MPH winds on the coast as of the 0700HRS update, which is 4 hrs old!!

Everyone needs to pray for these people, they're going to have terrible flash flooding problems!!
422. P451
Quoting Weather456:


yea the storm is intensifying..it looks like a cat 2 typhoon. If it continues then major likely.


Have a good night....

...but one parting question: (for anyone)

Why is it that a WestPac system looks much more intense than an Atlantic system of the same intensity?

Katsana's current presentation would no doubt mirror any 115mph cat-3 Atlantic system.

Why does a WPac invest mirror an Atlantic TD? A WPac TD mirror an Atlantic TS? A WPac TS mirror an Atlantic Cat 1? - on satellite presentation of course.

Is it because the SST in the WPac is so much higher?

(as we all know you can have TStorm in winter as long as the surface temp is that much warmer than the upper level temps. Surface is 80F, upper level is 0F, TSTORM. Surface is 30F, upper level is -50F, TSTORM) <--- does this apply in some way? They're dealing with 90F SSTs - we're usually dealing with 82-85F SSTs.

Just a not-so-simple question.

And, good night.

423. jipmg
Katsana's presentation does not mirror a CAT 3, a hurricane with no eye = minimal. The gives you a clue as to how high the winds are, if it has a PIN HOLE eye that we cant see, thats a completely different story
The winds are blowin cool (and fast) in Chicago. Night all.
Quoting juslivn:
The winds are blowin cool (and fast) in Chicago. Night all.


have a good one
426. jipmg
I cant wait till that dry air gets here in SFLA.. heck when that low drops to 71 (still mild) and we get that nice North east breeze, and dew points in the 50s.. oh my it will feel so good..

Anything over Low to mid 90s and dew points in the 70S.
Quoting P451:


Have a good night....

...but one parting question: (for anyone)

Why is it that a WestPac system looks much more intense than an Atlantic system of the same intensity?

Katsana's current presentation would no doubt mirror any 115mph cat-3 Atlantic system.

Why does a WPac invest mirror an Atlantic TD? A WPac TD mirror an Atlantic TS? A WPac TS mirror an Atlantic Cat 1? - on satellite presentation of course.

Is it because the SST in the WPac is so much higher?

(as we all know you can have TStorm in winter as long as the surface temp is that much warmer than the upper level temps. Surface is 80F, upper level is 0F, TSTORM. Surface is 30F, upper level is -50F, TSTORM) <--- does this apply in some way? They're dealing with 90F SSTs - we're usually dealing with 82-85F SSTs.

Just a not-so-simple question.

And, good night.



a combinations of very high ocean heat content under the Western Pacific Warm Pool, more breathing room and a more vigorous intertropical front (the monsoon trough).

To add....

The Atlantic ITCZ is confluent in nature while the Western Pacific monsoon trough is cyclonic in nature. That is why I stress there should be a difference between the 2. The Eastern Pacific/SW Caribbean and Eastern Atlantic also has monsoon troughs that is why some eastern Atlantic waves are so vigorous and then weaken as they meet the confluent part of the Inter-tropical front.

Wilma and Mitch developed from monsoonal flow over the Western Atlantic warm pool, so that gives you an idea.
The W Pacific systems have so much MORE latent heat energy readily availiable than their Atlantic conterparts! Thousands of miles of deep ocean averaging 85F!! That extra energy translates into more convection, over a larger area, larger storms!!

In the Atlantic, we rate our storms at a 1 MIN max wind speed!! Another word a CAT 3 w/115 MPH winds in the Atlantic has 115MPH winds for 1 minute in a portion of the storm!!

The Japanese Meteorological Service, their typhoons are a 10 MIN max speed!! So if Typhoon Katsana has 75MPH winds, there measured for 10 minutes in portions of the storm!! There may well be 110MPH winds for 1 minute in that storm, maybe more!!!
One of the causes of low global tropical activity was the cooling of the tropical atmosphere leading from the 2007-2009 La Nina. This is not the cooling of the surface air temperature, this was occurring aloft.

If El Nino intensifies over the next 6 months, this could offset and the 2010 and 2011 global tropical cyclone seasons could mirror 2004-2005 - coincidently those are names to be used for the ATL and EPAC basins.
Well many of the names from 2004-2005 have been replaced in the Atlantic basin.
What's an RI candidate?

Is it a moderate tropical cyclone which will just burst out to a Category 5 storm in a matter of hours?
11PM Advisory from JTWC:

Typhoon Ketsana
15.8N 112.4E
Winds:75 MPH
Movement:W at 7 MPH
Pressure:975MB



Tropical Depression 18W
9.5N 155.2E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:SW at 7 MPH
Pressure:1004 MB



Tropical Depression 19W
9.4N 144.0E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:W at 10 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



Winds are 1-min sustained
(Pressures are from JMA)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well many of the names from 2004-2005 have been replaced in the Atlantic basin.


9 of 42 names...we'll being alot of familiar names, especially Emily.
so, the temperature has risen 4 degrees in the last couple of hours, and the pressure has dropped 4 millibars, from 1000 to 996
Quoting Bordonaro:
The W Pacific systems have so much MORE latent heat energy readily availiable than their Atlantic conterparts! Thousands of miles of deep ocean averaging 85F!! That extra energy translates into more convection, over a larger area, larger storms!!

In the Atlantic, we rate our storms at a 1 MIN max wind speed!! Another word a CAT 3 w/115 MPH winds in the Atlantic has 115MPH winds for 1 minute in a portion of the storm!!

The Japanese Meteorological Service, their typhoons are a 10 MIN max speed!! So if Typhoon Katsana has 75MPH winds, there measured for 10 minutes in portions of the storm!! There may well be 110MPH winds for 1 minute in that storm, maybe more!!!


Borondaro!!! Exclamation points!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:
The W Pacific systems have so much MORE latent heat energy readily availiable than their Atlantic conterparts! Thousands of miles of deep ocean averaging 85F!! That extra energy translates into more convection, over a larger area, larger storms!!

In the Atlantic, we rate our storms at a 1 MIN max wind speed!! Another word a CAT 3 w/115 MPH winds in the Atlantic has 115MPH winds for 1 minute in a portion of the storm!!

The Japanese Meteorological Service, their typhoons are a 10 MIN max speed!! So if Typhoon Katsana has 75MPH winds, there measured for 10 minutes in portions of the storm!! There may well be 110MPH winds for 1 minute in that storm, maybe more!!!


Do I understand this correctly? This storm would be a higher category in the US than what it has been given in the Pacific.

I do feel for those people and will pray for them, I can assure you.
Emily also grazed the North Carolina outer banks as a Cat 3--that name gets close, but never quite makes it to infamy.
Wow in 6 years we have never had the pressure break 997 mb here tornadodude.
Quoting TexNowNM:


Do I understand this correctly? This storm would be a higher category in the US than what it has been given in the Pacific.

I do feel for those people and will pray for them, I can assure you.


The JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency) goes by 10-min sustained winds, which are usually lower the 1-min sustained winds we go by because they are measured for a longer time span.

The JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center) goes by 1-min sustained if you want to know what it would be for us.

Link
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Wow in 6 years we have never had the pressure break 997 mb here tornadodude.


really?? it is 994 here now
Our stupid weather agency identifies TD 18W and 19W as cloud clusters.

Wondering why these epic floods happen?

Not anymore.

God bless the Philippines.
Yeah Tornadodude, we are close to the Bermuda high, our average pressure here is 30.07" Our lowest pressure in past 6 years was with tropical storm Barry (2007)
Quoting serialteg:


Borondaro!!! Exclamation points!!!

Sorry, I enjoy using them.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Yeah Tornadodude, we are close to the Bermuda high, our average pressure here is 30.07" Our lowest pressure in past 6 years was with tropical storm Barry (2007)


oh ok, makes sense, must be pretty low here because my toes and fingers are aching now
Quoting IPlayTS3:
Our stupid weather agency identifies TD 18W and 19W as cloud clusters.

Wondering why these epic floods happen?

Not anymore.

God bless the Philippines.


I think the reason might be because they use different methods of identifying tropical cyclones than others.
This might also be why sometimes the JTWC identifies a cyclone before the JMA or PAGASA do and vice-versa. Different agencies, different opinions.

BTW, which agency are you talking about?
Quoting Magicchaos:


I think the reason might be because they use different methods of identifying tropical cyclones than others.
This might also be why sometimes the JTWC identifies a cyclone before the JMA or PAGASA do and vice-versa. Different agencies, different opinions.

BTW, which agency are you talking about?


PAGASA.

Live on Philippine television did he say that those are only cloud clusters.

A news anchor asked if these depressions will affect the country and the director of PAGASA said that they are only cloud clusters, not depressions.

I think you're right. Different opinions from different agencies.
Never mind, link not working properly

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Link


that is pretty high
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Never mind, link not working properly



ok gotcha now
I tried to post the animation from today, but for some reason it's stuck on last Feb. Anyway, it's past my bedtime :) Night y'all.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I tried to post the animation from today, but for some reason it's stuck on last Feb. Anyway, it's past my bedtime :) Night y'all.


have a good one, in Lac La Belle MI, the pressure is 984.8 right now link
And I think PAGASA must remove their system of "signal numbers". They raise signals on where the center of the storm will hit, not the rain or wind different places will encounter.

For example, Ketsana's heavy rainbands are more in the south of the center of the storm. Thus, high signals raised on those places encounter weaker wind and rain while the places placed on lower signals received very heavy rains, in this case Metro Manila. This is why they didn't expect these floods.
Quick forecasts on WP cyclones:

Typhoon Ketsana:
Ketsana is moving toward the west at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days and Ketsana could make landfall near Hue,Vietnam by Tuesday morning.

Tropical Depression 18W:
Eighteen-W is moving erratically, but generally toward the southwest at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days and Eighteen-W is expected to be near the Marianas by Tuesday night.

Tropical Depression 19W:
Nineteen-W is moving toward the west at 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 to 48 hours, followed by a turn towards the northwest, then north-northwest. Nineteen is expected to pass over the island of Yap by early Tuesday morning.

Times in EDT(UTC-4)

Going to bed now. Night.
522
TCNA21 RJTD 280600
CCAA 28060 47644 KETSANA(0916) 20158 11119 12344 250// 92609=

6:00 AM UTC September 28 2009

TY Ketsana (0916) [System #20]
15.8N 111.9E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

---
quite an intensification in 6hr period
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON KETSANA (T0916)
15:00 PM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (965 hPa) located at 15.8N 111.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
375 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.6N 109.3E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.6N 107.8E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm
72 HRS: 16.6N 106.4E - Tropical Depression
Amazing that its the last week in September and the tropics are flat lined in the Atlantic.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 9.4N 143.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 8 knots
wondering if the moonsoon trough over latin america will make it move east and into the carib? ex td is moving along quite quickly good morning further leftovered anaylsis of ex 8 its no fred inverted trough now
461. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

...DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
OVER OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CAA AND SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE LOW 50S OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL BE THE COOLEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON.
Good Morning Ike. I heard it will be cooling off up there mid week !
463. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning Ike. I heard it will be cooling off up there mid week !


Yes...

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 50.
464. IKE
00Z ECMWF....doesn't show much through October 8th.

Looks like a 2nd frontal passage here the end of the week...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BEGIN AS WEAK OMEGA BLOCK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A WEAK REX BLOCK BY THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GFS IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... SHOWING MORE QPF THAN ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE
TWO MODELS FOR POP FORECAST.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. MEX FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...PUSHING TEMPS BACK JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
Typhoon Ketsana:

(I'll have a full graphics update this afternoon):
Good Morning all
Good Morning 456
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning 456


morning fellow blogger.
I hope Vietnam is prepared...cat 2 winds expected to affect the region. But look at how weird the track is at the end of the forecast cycle. It goes back over the Bay of Bengal. This is not totally far-fetch. Some of the sources of Bay of Bengal cyclones are the remnants of Pacific ones. There is also an invest in the BOB

tornadodude - I'll take the 50 degree temps.
456 - Ketsana's taking the vietnam to India route... It would be wierd if it is able to regenerate after going over that much land. Looking at google earth, it isn't exactly all flat either.
"Lake Superior, they say, never gives up her dead, when the Gales of November come early".

Gordon Lightfoot, Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald



Link
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - October



In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - October


In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.


With the presence of a moderate nino we should not have much to worry about in southeast florida this october.

Looks like december/january out there.
Thanks NRt just what we needed to know!
In fact the rainy season should be over tomorrow for much of Florida as the first front of the fall season plows into the state.
Quoting hurricane23:
In fact the rainy season should be over tomorrow for much of Florida as the first front of the fall season plows into the state.



and the rainy season this starting for the West cost
481. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Progster:
"Lake Superior, they say, never gives up her dead, when the Gales of November come early".

Gordon Lightfoot, Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald



Link


Strange that you bring that up. By the looks of the satelitte, Thunder Bay has a pretty strong low pressure this morning.