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Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2012

The coldest place in Greenland, and often the entire Northern Hemisphere, is commonly the Summit Station. Located at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level, and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle, Summit rarely sees temperatures that rise above the freezing mark. In the 12-year span 2000 - 2011, Summit temperatures rose above freezing only four times, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. But remarkably, over the past week, temperatures at Summit have eclipsed the freezing mark on five days, including four days in a row from July 11 - 14. There are actually three weather stations located at the location--Summit, Summit-US, and Summit AWS. The highest reliable temperature measured at any of the three stations is now the 3.6°C (38.5°F) measured on Monday, July 16, 2012 at Summit-US. A 4.4°C reading at Summit in May, 2010 is bogus, as can be seen by looking at the adjacent station. Similarly, a 3.3°C reading from June 2004 is also bad. Records at Summit began in 1987.


Video 1. A 20-ton tractor attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland gets washed downstream. The driver escaped unharmed. Image taken from an article, Warm air over the ice sheet provides great drama in Greenland, at the Danish Meteorological Institute's web site.

Record heat leads to major flooding in Greenland
The record heat has triggered significant melting of Greenland's Ice Sheet. According to the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, on July 11, glacier melt water from the Russell Glacier flooded the Watson River, smashing two bridges connecting the north and south of Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord), a small settlement in southwestern Greenland. The flow rate of 3.5 million liters/sec was almost double the previous record flow rate. The latest forecast for Summit calls for cooler conditions over the coming week, with no more above-freezing temperatures at Summit.

Another huge iceberg calves off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier
A massive ice island two times the size of Manhattan and half as thick as the Empire State Building calved off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier on Monday, July 16, 2012. According to Andreas Muenchow, associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment in his Icy Seas blog, the break-off point has been visible for at least 8 years in satellite imagery, and has been propagating at 1 km/year towards Nares Strait. The same glacier calved an iceberg twice as big back on August 4, 2010--the largest iceberg observed in the Arctic since 1962. The freshwater stored in that ice island could have kept the Delaware or Hudson rivers flowing for more than two years, or kept all U.S. public tap water flowing for 120 days. “While the size is not as spectacular as it was in 2010, the fact that it follows so closely to the 2010 event brings the glacier’s terminus to a location where it has not been for at least 150 years,” Muenchow said in a university press release. “Northwest Greenland and northeast Canada are warming more than five times faster than the rest of the world, but the observed warming is not proof that the diminishing ice shelf is caused by this, because air temperatures have little effect on this glacier; ocean temperatures do, and our ocean temperature time series are only five to eight years long — too short to establish a robust warming signal.”


Figure 1. The calving of a massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 14 - 18, 2012, as seen using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Look familiar? Two years ago, a 100 square-mile ice island broke off the Petermann Glacier. It was the largest iceberg in the Arctic since 1962. Image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 21, 2010. Image credit: NASA. I've constructed a 7-frame satellite animation available here that shows the calving and break-up of the Petermann Glacier ice island. The animation begins on August 5, 2010, and ends on September 21, with images spaced about 8 days apart. The images were taken by NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.

Related posts

Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt

Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Jeff Masters

Glaciers Heat Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting txjac:


Makes me real sit and wonder about what we are morally becoming as a nation. Seriously ...someone thought this was funny? And we sit around and wonder why jobs are going elsewhere (not that you can export BK jobs) but what has happened to integrity and pride??? Shaking my head in shame
you would truly be surprized if you really saw what goes on

i remember seeing some nasty stuff when i worked in a few grease spoons in my younger days

1002. bappit
Quoting txjac:


Amen washington ...my kids werent raised like this either. But it is so frustrating to watch this happening ...we are are own worst enemy
This nation is going to hell and so is other parts of the world.Sorry had to get that off of my chest...
1004. hydrus
This Hubble site has a really cool explanation of dark energy and how it affects the Universe..Link
Welp, we're doomed.
Quoting Chucktown:


Here is a big juicy fact - we are a silent minority here on this blog whether we believe in climate change or not. 99.9 % of the worlds population have too many other things to worry about than the state of the world's climate. The world's poor economy and whether or not family's can feed their kids and pay their mortgage is on the top of their to do list. Why worry about something that we are not sure is even happening and on top of that, most people aren't going to do a thing about it.


No, you're not the a silent minority here. You and your fellow deniers frequently type junk on your keyboards and post it to the site.

That out of the way, a lot, lot people than 0.1% of the world's population are concerned about climate change. In fact the number is quite significant.

But if we follow your lead we will do nothing to stop ourselves from getting hurt more by storms, droughts, floods and massive snowfalls. Some of us are also going to get hurt by rising water. We'll all get hurt by rising food prices. We'll all see our tax dollars to storm/flood/drought recovery when they should be going to make our lives better.

Last thing we should do is follow your lead and play ostrich.
1007. Patrap
Quoting BobWallace:


No, you're not the a silent minority here. You and your fellow deniers frequently type junk on your keyboards and post it to the site.

That out of the way, a lot, lot people than 0.1% of the world's population are concerned about climate change. In fact the number is quite significant.

But if we follow your lead we will do nothing to stop ourselves from getting hurt more by storms, droughts, floods and massive snowfalls. Some of us are also going to get hurt by rising water. We'll all get hurt by rising food prices. We'll all see our tax dollars to storm/flood/drought recovery when they should be going to make our lives better.

Last thing we should do is follow your lead and play ostrich.



amen Brotha,

Amen

Hey chuck, do you expound your personal view on Climate Change to your TV viewers?

Curious is all.

: )

907 Tribucanes: If we don't worry about it now, our next two generations will; and it'll be a nightmare to deal with. Not acting now may cause the next two generations to be living in third world conditions here in US and across the West in general. No will to act now at all, I agree with that largely, but we must.

Living under the equivalent to presentday ThirdWorld conditions is a lot better than what ThirdWorlders can expect. Only a short few months of food left in the WorldGrainReserve/etc.
Russia, Canada, Brazil, and the US are already looking at large shortfalls in their normal annual contributions to the world's food supply. Does the word 'genocide' sound familiar?
Malthusian famine ain't likely to wait for the next generation.
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed.

All you need is 3 SSME's, or Space Shuttle Main Engines..

And oh, 500,000 gals of LOX and Hydrogen and a 8 Min depletion rate and bingo, a Shower or Thunderstorm can be produced.





Who'd we buy that liquid oxygen and hydrogen from, again?
1010. Patrap
Quoting redwagon:

Who'd we buy that liquid oxygen and hydrogen from, again?




Air Products.


Hydrogen

Oxygen
nvm, i see
Interesting tidbit from this week's drought report:

"The city of Indianapolis, Indiana, implemented mandatory water restrictions for the first time ever with many trees dropping their leaves and going dormant months early. "
Link

and they're "only" in the D3 (Extreme) category.. starting to see D4 (exceptional) start to pop up just to their south across the Kentucky line.
1013. txjac
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I wasn't being funny?


No, not you ...the guy standing on the lettuce ...him thinking it was a joke ...not you
1014. Patrap
Its a good buy and solid investment too.

From Our News Center
Air Products’ LNG Expertise Selected for PETR...
APD - NYSE $81.50 -0.04 19 July 2012 4:07 PM
Quoting Patrap:



amen Brotha,

Amen

Hey chuck, do you expound your personal view on Climate Change to your TV viewers?

Curious is all.

: )



If he does, he might already be on the Forecast the Facts list. There are some really interesting ones on there - they run the whole span of skeptical opinions from flat out denial that CO2 is a greenhouse gas to denial that greenhouse gases cause warming to the more simple skepticism that greenhouse gases from humans are causing the majority of the observed changes.
1017. ncstorm
National Poll done on June 27th and July 1st..nope I dont see climate change on there anywhere..

Two National Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters
June 27-28 and July 1-2, 2012

Issue


Very Important

Economy


74%

Health Care


67%

Gov't Ethics and Corruption


64%

Taxes


55%

Energy Policy


44%

Education


55%

Social Security


60%

Immigration


47%

National Security/War on Terror


46%

Afghanistan


30%
1018. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 3:37 PM CDT on July 19, 2012

... Flash Flood Watch in effect through Friday evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi... including the following areas... in
southeast Louisiana... northern Tangipahoa... Orleans...
southern Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. John The Baptist...
St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper Plaquemines... upper St.
Bernard and Washington. In southern Mississippi... Hancock...
Harrison... Jackson... Pearl River... Pike and Walthall.

* Through Friday evening

* efficient tropical type rains will be capable of producing
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour at times this afternoon
and evening. A similar scenario is expected to develop once
again Friday. General rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is
expected with locally higher amounts of 6 to 8 inches possible
through Friday evening in the watch area.

* Torrential heavy rains will produce rapid ponding of water.
Drainage canals and ditches may fill to bankfull during periods
of torrential rains. Some roadways will come impassible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

Do not drive into areas where water covers the roadway. Do not
drive around any barricades posted by local officials.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Post #991.... Sisko? Who's Sisko?

Quoting Patrap:



amen Brotha,

Amen

Hey chuck, do you expound your personal view on Climate Change to your TV viewers?

Curious is all.

: )



Don't have time, 3 and a half minutes gives me just enough time for the forecast. Plus, viewers tune in for the forecast and the 7 day, they don't want to hear me drone on about climate change. If I wasn't a met, neither would I.
1022. hydrus
Hubble's Deepest View Ever of the Universe Unveils Earliest Galaxies
Link
1024. Patrap
Quoting Chucktown:


Don't have time, 3 and a half minutes gives me just enough time for the forecast. Plus, viewers tune in for the forecast and the 7 day, they don't want to hear me drone on about climate change. If I wasn't a met, neither would I.


3.5. man dats not much time as you say.

Thanx.

1025. MrMixon
Quoting txjac:


Makes me real sit and wonder about what we are morally becoming as a nation. Seriously ...someone thought this was funny? And we sit around and wonder why jobs are going elsewhere (not that you can export BK jobs) but what has happened to integrity and pride??? Shaking my head in shame


While I agree with the sentiment, I suspect you would find many examples of actions lacking pride and integrity as far back in human history as you'd care to look (and in whatever culture you examine). There have ALWAYS been jerks, immature pranksters, bigots, etc. I think we just hear about them more these days because they make good news (i.e. - people are fascinated by bad behavior and stories like this spread like wildfire).

If you dig through today's news I bet you could find many stories of people doing beautiful, kind, amazing things... they just don't make headlines.

"Teach your children well..."




Anybody seriously expecting this Twave currently in the E Car to impact FL? It's kinda far south...
1030. ncstorm
updated HPC Precip map

Quoting ScottLincoln:


If he does, he might already be on the Forecast the Facts list. There are some really interesting ones on there - they run the whole span of skeptical opinions from flat out denial that CO2 is a greenhouse gas to denial that greenhouse gases cause warming to the more simple skepticism that greenhouse gases from humans are causing the majority of the observed changes.


Are these guys getting a college degree before someone lets them on the air?

What kind of university would graduate a meteorologist who didn't understand basic physics?

(I do realize that some of them are just weather-readers.)
Quoting Patrap:
Its a good buy and solid investment too.

From Our News Center
Air Products’ LNG Expertise Selected for PETR...
APD - NYSE $81.50 -0.04 19 July 2012 4:07 PM

So instead of a lemonade stand, let's just hook up and create a cloud stand there on the Sabine. We'll have a 100-ft aluminum cone to send clouds this or that way, depending on who pays how much for it to go this or that way. Ground cloud-seeding.
Quoting BobWallace:


Are these guys getting a college degree before someone lets them on the air?

What kind of university would graduate a meteorologist who didn't understand basic physics?

(I do realize that some of them are just weather-readers.)


No weather reader here, no prompter needed - fully accredited Bachelor of Science in Meteorology.
is it me or is the pacific cooling?? what does that mean
One question I've had for a while that I would really like to hear some answers for is:

What can we as a society do about our changing climate?

and:

What are YOU doing to contribute less to climate change?

Share your thoughts.
Miami NWS Discussion

THE SAHARAN AIR (DUST) LAYER WILL BE EXITING SOUTH FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCE
POPS ON SUNDAY.
Chucktown says he'd have no interest in hearing climate change discussed by his meteorologist if he weren't a meteorologist. And it's "droning" on when a meteorologist discusses climate change. When should we discuss it then Chuck? If main stream media and local media just don't discuss it, then what? Out of sight, out of mind. How cozy for Corporations. It's been packaged to American's as a non-issue, until it is HONESTLY discussed openly as a SOONTOBE real big issue then this will be the public's outlook on it.
1040. Patrap
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”
― Mark Twain
Quoting nofailsafe:
One question I've had for a while that I would really like to hear some answers for is:

What can we as a society do about our changing climate?

and:

What are YOU doing to contribute less to climate change?

Share your thoughts.

Have you decided what really about the climate is changing? The causative factor, agent? Because it helps to in treating the disease to know the cause, not just the symptoms.
So liberals aren't patriots? I hope everyone reports this very openly insulting and abusive comment by Pensacola Doug.
1046. Patrap
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




110 DAYS.
A change I'm hoping for.


.."Your so Bain, you probably think this post is about you"....

Dow Close 12875.00 -5.00 (-0.04%)


Dow Jan 20, 2009 Close 7949.
I'm an independent, but this thinly veiled insult By Pensacola is just beneath this blog.
ittyboo.
So the US drought is a result of global warming which we are causing. The UK is having one of their wettest summers ever. Trying to figure out how we are responsible for that....
Quoting Tribucanes:
So liberals aren't patriots? I hope everyone reports this very openly insulting and abusive comment by Pensacola Doug.


If its not true just ignore it.
Quoting windshear1993:
is it me or is the pacific cooling?? what does that mean




its you the pacific is not cooling its warming slowy
What are the chances that the African wave is given an invest as soon as it enters the Atlantic? Just sayin it looks pretty strong. Hopefully it'll do some sweeping up along the way.
1053. Patrap
Quoting Tribucanes:
So liberals aren't patriots? I hope everyone reports this very openly insulting and abusive comment by Pensacola Doug.


..we like Doug.

He keeps us Honest.

Honest.

Ask Doug if he served America.

I'm sure he will answer.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Chucktown says he'd have no interest in hearing climate change discussed by his meteorologist if he weren't a meteorologist. And it's "droning" on when a meteorologist discusses climate change. When should we discuss it then Chuck? If main stream media and local media just don't discuss it, then what? Out of sight, out of mind. How cozy for Corporations. It's been packaged to American's as a non-issue, until it is HONESTLY discussed openly as a SOONTOBE real big issue then this will be the public's outlook on it.


Again, my viewers don't care about climate change, its not on the top of their to do list. All they want to hear from me is, is it going to rain, where, what time, and how much. Oh, and if there is something in the tropics, are we going to get hit. That is it, Joe in Goose Creek doesn't care if the world has warmed 1.5 C since 1820 and again if I was on that side of the screen, I wouldn't either. This IS the majority.
1055. Patrap
the Moral Majority Im assuming...?

Such Clueless Dogma .

LOL
Comments such as Pensacola's are attacking, rude, wrong, and should be ignored, AFTER reporting. Comment 1042
Take a deep breath......
1058. Patrap
There are now 154 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
1060. Patrap
Somes Ideology is bruised easily.

We understand.

Fresca?
Politics on the blog... yeah, we need to hit the third decade, like NOW...

When someone insinuates a VETERAN who is a LIBERAL is not a PATRIOT, then I take it very seriously. Comment 1042 once again, is beneath the level of this blog. Especially from someone who is here regularly.
RE;1059 True.


Oddly enough, I never see Tribudude ever chastising BW or Nea or others for "thinly veiled" insults.

Hmmmm...
1064. MrMixon
It's always disappointing when you see a familiar name from the blog resort to blatant trolling.

For the blog's next big disappointment, I present today's monsoonal storms (all one of them) in Colorado...

1067. Patrap
Who is arguing ?

Im LOL my gazoo off.


I have a DD-214




Quoting Tazmanian:




its you the pacific is not cooling its warming slowy
oh well thanks
1071. skook
These are 2 stations from the summit, about 1.2 miles apart and both from July 16.

Link

station 04418

2012-07-16 15:00:00
38.5
2012-07-16 18:00:00
22.6

Link

Station 04416
2012-07-16 15:00:00 28.8
2012-07-16 18:00:00 34.9


So what is considered reliable? I couldn't find the third station which if anyone has a link too would be great.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Nice parabola.
No Pensacola, you hopefully will get banned for that. People on here are snide at times. You went across that line with what was an insult to military veterans who are liberals. You said they weren't Patriots. Maybe if this is some inside joke with Pat you should PM him, because it certainly didn't come across as such. I believe you meant it just as it came across knowing your political leanings.
1074. Patrap
Er, Im a Independent.


It bothers me not.

Don't let it bother you.








Be back when the trolls have subsided to a mere hush in the background. One can dream can't they?
1076. Patrap
Portlight.org 2012: The year so far

2012 has been a busy year for us at Portlight, with the renewed commitment from Dr. Jeff Masters and Wunderground.com, the new website, tornados in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Texas and Oklahoma, new partnerships with Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership and the Colorado Cross-Disability Coalition, the Harrisburg House project. So busy, in fact, that we thought we’d take a few minutes and recount some of the things our volunteers have done, with your help:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




110 DAYS.
A change I'm hoping for.


One "Neutral" comment on the subject. Suppose the President earns another term. Would you continue your revolt or get behind the President Elect in restoring stability in the nation?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nice parabola.
Thanks, something can get going over if it wants to.
1080. Patrap
Line of storms coming my way again.. haha i cant get a break but i guess its good cause we need the rain... wish i culd send it to other areas that need it more at the moment tho :p
Quoting jrweatherman:
So the US drought is a result of global warming which we are causing. The UK is having one of their wettest summers ever. Trying to figure out how we are responsible for that....
They are getting our rain. Maybe they stole it?

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


One "Neutral" comment on the subject. Suppose the President earns another term. Would you continue your revolt or get behind the President Elect in restoring stability in the nation?



I fear for how BO will change our country once he doesn't have to sweat re-election.
Lord, please send us an invest and stop this insanity.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Just for the record. You're a goober. That wasn't directed at Pat. Just a general statement that I saw on a t-shirt and thought was funny. You're still a goober tho.

Get ya handbags out and start swingin. lol

The Barometer Bob Show this week July 19, 2012
This week my special guest is Bryan Norcross from The Weather Channel. We will talk about the 2012 Hurricane Season and the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.
Also, we will talk with John Van Pelt from StormStudy.Com about something very interesting!
You can watch the show live beginning at 8PM/7C at HurricaneHollow.Com Join us in Storm Chat and feel free to call into the show.




This blog has gone over the edge tonight.

BTW, What are the chances the African wave will get an invest # when it enters the ATL?
1088. Patrap


Quoting 954FtLCane:
What are the chances that the African wave is given an invest as soon as it enters the Atlantic? Just sayin it looks pretty strong. Hopefully it'll do some sweeping up along the way.
Doubt it. Given current conditions, which are pretty much standard re: climatology at this period, the earliest I can see them giving this invest status is T+24 hrs...

1090. Patrap
Quoting 954FtLCane:




This blog has gone off the edge tonight.

BTW, What are the chances the African wave will get an invest # when it enters the ATL?


Usually the NHC waits to see if the TW can sustain its signature as it makes the trek westward, a few days.

How they look exiting and what we see a few days after tells a lot as to a waves voracity and chance to develop.

1093. Patrap




Quoting redwagon:

Have you decided what really about the climate is changing? The causative factor, agent? Because it helps to in treating the disease to know the cause, not just the symptoms.


Well, for starters we know that the burning of fossil fuels releases carbon oxides (monoxide and dioxide.) We also know that carbon dioxide has two very strong absorbances in the IR part of the electromagnetic spectrum. Energy from the sun is absorbed by all gases in the atmosphere. It really doesn't help that there's more CO2 in the atmosphere today than there was even 10 years ago. If one denies that the effects of fossil fuel combustion do not release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere then they must answer the question: where is it going?

Some of it is incorporated into new growth from autotrophs but that only occurs at a certain rate. If you exceed the rate of fixing the CO2 has to find some place else to go. It either ends up getting absorbed by the oceans or it lingers in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide also only has a certain solubility in water. I.E. the oceans can only hold so much.

There are also other contributing greenhouse gases such as methane and water. Water can hold a lot more energy than air can (it has a significantly higher specific heat.) Water also has two very strong IR absorptions. Methane does as well. So when you have permafrost melting in areas that have large accumulations of soil bacteria that produce methane gas as a byproduct of their metabolism, you can release some of that into the atmosphere.

Now, there are a lot of factors that influence the climate, the composition of the gases in the atmosphere are definitely a big player, but there are also other factors that influence it. For instance, where does all of the soot from incomplete burning of carbon-based fuel go? Carbon, if you've ever seen it, is pretty much black. Black things are black because they're absorbing all of the light in the visible spectrum. Some of that absorbed energy gets released in the form of heat.

To answer your question about what climate change entails:

The surest thing I can say is that climate change is that it is a change in atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, surface albedo, and net entropy. What those factors will result in are up in the air (quite literally.) The thing we have the most direct control over is atmospheric composition. Think about CFCs for a second, those are a good example. We put them up there, they ate away at the ozone layer and now, after cutting back, our ozone layer is somewhat better than it was in the mid 1980s and atmospheric concentrations of all CFCs are down 10%.

Anyway, that's all I've got.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I fear for how BO will change our country once he doesn't have to sweat re-election.


"The People" always have the power to change at any time. I am personally curious what could happen if all worked together, despite their beliefs. My philosophy is "Do The Best You Can With What You Have". I do not think a portion of the US population is doing that right now.
The only mention of the convection ready to emerge Africa came at the 8 PM EDT discussion.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 13N16W CONTINUING ALONG 14N30W TO 9N49W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N49W CONTINUING TO 9N61W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS...BUT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS NEARING THE
AFRICAN COASTLINE.
1099. MrMixon
Seems like somebody is trying to get a 24-hour ban. But wouldn't turning off the computer be easier?

"Well the landslide will bring you down..."

Awesome video of some very lucky folks barely (and I mean BARELY) escaping a recent landslide in British Columbia:

System around Cape Verde Islands at 396 hrs. according to the CFS long range model. That would be Aug. 2nd.

I come on here to chat and learn about the weather with other enthusiasts in order to try and forget about the overall lack of civility we are seeing in society in general but it's been getting harder lately to find an hour long fight/insult free discussion......My ignore list has grown over the past several months as a result (particularly when you see folks who just joined a few months, or a few days ago, who immediately start jumping on and arguing with folks) but I am trying to hang in there. They really need to consider making this a paid blog to thin out the ranks to those who will stay on topic IMHO.
I keep watching 2 things about these current AEWs, to wit:

- lovely high position already as they exit the great continent of birth and

- strictly Wward track impacting CAR basin and GoM basin landmasses, due to strength / extent / position of surface ridging.

Gradually other ATL basin-wide conditions that are unconducive will abate; TUTT / ULL interference will decrease, westerly shear will lessen. Even the strength of the high, which has helped to fuel high-speed tranversals of the MDR for Twaves and kept SAL high, will moderate over the next 7-21 days.

However, I'm still waiting to see if we're going to get that mean trough positioned along the E CONUS coast to provide the groove for the resultant bowling balls to run down....

Quoting 954FtLCane:


you sure have a way of talking down to peeps tonight....just sayin.. thats all
Yeah i know.I'm sorry that I have to say this and I'm not normally the one to shout it out.but after he attacked me aggressively I had to well you know..
1105. Patrap
Well, soon we shall know, come the 25th when the TWC link kicks in, comments may not be allowed here for a spell.
Hey, wxman... pple have been praying for an invest...
Quoting BahaHurican:
I keep watching 2 things about these current AEWs, to wit:

- lovely high position already as they exit the great continent of birth and

- strictly Wward track impacting CAR basin and GoM basin landmasses, due to strength / extent / position of surface ridging.

Gradually other ATL basin-wide conditions that are unconducive will abate; TUTT / ULL interference will decrease, westerly shear will lessen. Even the strength of the high, which has helped to fuel high-speed tranversals of the MDR for Twaves and kept SAL high, will moderate over the next 7-21 days.

However, I'm still waiting to see if we're going to get that mean trough positioned along the E CONUS coast to provide the groove for the resultant bowling balls to run down....

Guess what the model I just show, shows future Ernesto recurving out to sea.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Guess what the model I just show, shows future Ernesto recurving out to sea.
What model was that?
Quoting Patrap:
Well, soon we shall know, come the 25th and the TWC link kicks in, comments may not be allowed here for a spell.


Yes my old friend, we will know soon enough but I will stick it out to the end....This has been like family to me over the last 6 years starting with Dr. M and tons of other folks over the years (some whom no longer blog on here) who were more interested in teaching than arguing............. Oh Well....... :)
1110. ncstorm
JMA model

72 hours


96 hours


120 hour


144 hours
Quoting washingtonian115:
What model was that?
The Climate Forecast System
1112. Patrap
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yes my old friend, we will know soon enough but I will stick it out to the end....This has been like family to me over the last 6 years starting with Dr. M and tons of other folks over the years (some whom no longer blog on here) who were more interested in teaching than arguing............. Oh Well....... :)



Indeed,

Change is a constant in linear time and within the Matterium,


Tomorrow will be a new Chance to make something WUnderful.


"If you cannot help, at least harm not the ones doing the chore"

Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end

Quoting ncstorm:


hate to disappoint you Bob, but I have been voting as a democrat since the day I turned 18..I guess being in a certain party has nothing to do with what Americans are concern about..but hey, I dont want to plague the blog with non weather talk as I hear we are not supposed to do that..


How you vote is none of my business. Posting junk, that I take an interest in.

Now, how do you separate weather from climate?

And are you complaining when people start talking about their dating lives, how things are going for them at work/school, all that non-weather/climate stuff?



1102. Same feeling here.....
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Climate Forecast System
Someone posted a model run of it going out 1000+ hours and showing a active August.Lol.
1116. Patrap
LOL

Timing is everything.


GOP senators block top Obama jobs initiative - CNN.com
www.cnn.com


Senate Republicans on Thursday blocked the No.1 item on the president's congressional "to-do-list," refusing to allow a vote on a bill that would give tax breaks for companies that "insource" jobs to the U.S. from overseas while eliminating tax deductions for companies that move jobs abroad.
1117. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Someone posted a model run of it going out 1000+ hours and showing a active August.Lol.


1000 hours?..incredible!
Oh yeah we're in business at the start of the month.

Experimental FIM Model from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory:

Well Everyone have a safe and quiet evening and I'll see Yall tomorrow......... :)
1121. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Cyclone activity during the past ten years as of 7/19/11: (Sorry for the long post):

2000:

* Tropical Depression One
* Tropical Depression Two

2001:

* Tropical Storm Allison
* Tropical Depression Two

2002:

* Tropical Storm Arthur

2003:

* Tropical Storm Ana
* Tropical Depression Two
* Tropical Storm Bill
* Hurricane Claudette
* Hurricane Danny
* Tropical Depression Six

2004:

* No tropical cyclones recorded as of 7/19/04

2005:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Storm Bret
* Hurricane Cindy
* Hurricane Dennis
* Hurricane Emily

2006:

* Tropical Storm Alberto
* Tropical Storm Unnamed
* Tropical Storm Beryl

2007:

* Subtropical Storm Andrea
* Tropical Storm Barry

2008:

* Tropical Storm Arthur
* Hurricane Bertha
* Tropical Storm Cristobal

2009:

* Tropical Depression One

2010:

* Hurricane Alex
* Tropical Depression Two

2011:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Storm Bret


This quote is a year old but it still works. Also to note, TS Cindy formed a day later on the 20th for 2011.

And to add:
2012:

* Tropical Storm Alberto
* Tropical Storm Beryl
* Hurricane Chris
* Tropical Storm Debby
Quoting nofailsafe:


The surest thing I can say is that climate change is that it is a change in atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, surface albedo, and net entropy. What those factors will result in are up in the air (quite literally.) The thing we have the most direct control over is atmospheric composition. Think about CFCs for a second, those are a good example. We put them up there, they ate away at the ozone layer and now, after cutting back, our ozone layer is somewhat better than it was in the mid 1980s and atmospheric concentrations of all CFCs are down 10%.

Anyway, that's all I've got.

Thank you for a very lucid and thoughtful analysis.

Your argument I would classify as emissions-based observations. But over time, much bigger emissions - The Dust Bowl, Krakatoa, in recent history; the GOM asteroid, and countless pre-historic emission catastrophies have still swung back to equilibrium with a time of the event.

My argument is that if there is very recent change in climate, it is not emissions-based, but change in the water-cycle due to the availability over land of water that used to be cycling over that land but no longer is. The anomalies over landmass originate in ground and troposphere water or lack of it; the symptoms show us where the changes are coming from.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh yeah we're in business at the start of the month.

Experimental FIM Model from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory:

If dry air is still a problem...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Someone posted a model run of it going out 1000+ hours and showing a active August.Lol.
Don't worry the GFS will soon specialize in long range modeling.
1125. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Someone posted a model run of it going out 1000 hours and showing a active August.Lol.


Dude you forgot me so soon? Your memory is worst than mine... XD
Whole Lotta Shaking Going On

Quoting JLPR2:


Dude you forgot me so soon? Your memory is worst than mine... XD
I knew the username started with a J and had a 2 in it.Lol.
1129. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew the username started with a J and had a 2 in it.Lol.


Ha! Close enough. XD
Jeff Masters Blog In Spanish

El lugar más frío en Groenlandia, y con frecuencia todo el hemisferio norte, es común la estación de montaña. Situado en la parte superior de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia, 10,552 pies (3207 metros) sobre el nivel del mar y 415 millas (670 km) al norte del Círculo Polar Ártico, las temperaturas rara vez ve la Cumbre que se elevan por encima del punto de congelación. En el lapso de 12 años 2000 - 2011, la Cumbre de las temperaturas subieron por encima de cero sólo cuatro veces, de acuerdo al clima registros investigador de Maximiliano Herrera. Pero sorprendentemente, en la última semana, las temperaturas en la Cumbre han eclipsado el punto de congelación durante cinco días, incluyendo cuatro días en una fila de 11 de julio - 14. En realidad, hay tres estaciones meteorológicas ubicadas en el lugar - la Cumbre, la Cumbre Estados Unidos-, y AWS Cumbre. La temperatura más alta medida fiable en cualquiera de las tres estaciones es ahora el 3,6 ° C (38,5 ° F), medido en Lunes, 16 de julio 2012 en la Cumbre y los Estados Unidos. Un 4,4 ° C en la Cumbre de la lectura en mayo de 2010 es falso, como se puede ver mirando a la estación adyacente. Del mismo modo, una lectura de 3,3 ° C entre junio de 2004 también es malo. Registros en la Cumbre se inició en 1996.

El récord de calor ha provocado la fusión significativa de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia. Según el blog de hielo del mar Ártico, el 11 de julio, los glaciares el agua de deshielo del glaciar Russell Watson inundó el río, rompiendo dos puentes que conectan el norte y el sur de Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord), un pequeño asentamiento en el sudoeste de Groenlandia. El caudal de 3,5 millones de litros por segundo fue casi el doble del anterior récord de flujo tarifa.El pronóstico más reciente de las llamadas Cumbres de las condiciones más frías durante la próxima semana, con temperaturas no más por encima de la congelación en la Cumbre.

Una isla de hielo masiva dos veces el tamaño de Manhattan y la mitad del grosor del Empire State Building parido fuera de Petermann de Groenlandia Glaciar en Lunes, 16 de julio 2012. De acuerdo con Andreas Muenchow, profesor asociado de ciencias del mar física y la ingeniería en la Universidad de la universidad de Delaware de la Tierra, Océano y Medio Ambiente en su blog mares helados, el punto de quiebre-off ha sido visible durante al menos 8 años en imágenes de satélite, y se ha estado propagando a 1 km / año hacia el Estrecho de Nares. El mismo glaciar parido un témpano de hielo el doble de trasero grande el 4 de agosto de 2010 - el mayor iceberg observado en el Ártico desde 1962.El agua dulce almacenada en esa isla de hielo podría haber mantenido los ríos Delaware o Hudson fluye por más de dos años, o se mantiene todo el público de EE.UU. el agua del grifo que fluye por 120 días. "Mientras que el tamaño no es tan espectacular como lo fue en 2010, el hecho de que sigue tan de cerca a la edición de 2010 trae terminal del glaciar a un lugar donde no ha sido por lo menos 150 años", dijo Muenchow en una editorial universitaria en libertad. "El noroeste de Groenlandia y Canadá, el noreste se están calentando más de cinco veces más rápido que el resto del mundo, pero el calentamiento observado no es prueba de que la disminución de la capa de hielo es causado por esto, porque la temperatura del aire tienen poco efecto sobre el glaciar, la temperatura del océano hacen , y nuestra temperatura del océano de series de tiempo son sólo cinco a ocho años de largo - demasiado breve para establecer una señal de calentamiento robusto ".


Jeff Masters

Translated by PRweather

Quoting sunlinepr:
Whole Lotta Shaking Going On



Though at the moment the number of shakes per week is way down on average. At times like this I say "the earth is quiet" and something will take the strain fairly soon. The average is still around 180 and I've seen it go as low as 130 but that was before Japan. After Japan the average was about 330 for a month or more. Just my 2 cents :)
1132. Patrap
wunderground.com is available in all languages,

russian.wunderground.com
M4.5 quake hits Fukushima — Third M4 in last 24 hours

Link
The 30 day SOI continues with the uptick,tonight up to -3.8,well above the -8 El Nino threshold.

1135. LargoFl
Why isn't this just lovely..We're once again in a server thunderstorm warning and the storms have a lot of rain with them so flash flooding is possible.And i know those poor people on Rhode island ave don't need this...Then we go for round two tomorrow...
Quoting sunlinepr:
M4.5 quake hits Fukushima — Third M4 in last 24 hours

Link


I get a lot of news about Fukushima from the Fukushima Dairy website. The chatbox is a bit depressing to 'listen to' but it's got some very good info.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why isn't this just lovely..We're once again in a server thunderstorm warning and the storms have a lot of rain with them so flash flooding is possible.And i know those poor people on Rhode island ave don't need this...Then we go for round two tomorrow...

Do u live in S. PA also?
1139. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
810 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-210015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
810 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Quoting 954FtLCane:




This blog has gone over the edge tonight.

BTW, What are the chances the African wave will get an invest # when it enters the ATL?



Ok, that picture made me laugh really, really hard, props to you man, lol.
.
1143. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC001-043-071-075-133-200130-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0129.120720T0035Z-120720T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
835 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 830 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH TO EAST OF
GETTYSBURG MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
OXFORD...MCSHERRYSTOWN...LITTLESTOWN...LAKE MEADE...HEIDLERSBURG...
GERMANTOWN...EAST BERLIN...BONNEAUVILLE...LAWN...WILLOW STREET...
WAKEFIELD...STRASBURG...SMITHVILLE...SAFE HARBOR...ROTHSVILLE...
REAMSTOWN...QUARRYVILLE...PARADISE...MOUNTVILLE... MOUNT JOY...
MILLERSVILLE...MAYTOWN...MARIETTA...MANHEIM...LITI TZ...LEOLA...
LANDISVILLE...LANCASTER...HOLTWOOD...EPHRATA...ELI ZABETHTOWN...EAST
PETERSBURG...DENVER...COLUMBIA...BRICKERVILLE...BA INBRIDGE...
AKRON...YORK...WRIGHTSVILLE...WINDSOR...WEIGELSTOW N...VALLEY
GREEN...THOMASVILLE...SUNNYBURN...STONYBROOK...STE WARTSTOWN...
SPRY...SPRING GROVE...SHREWSBURY...SHENKS FERRY...RED LION...
PENNVILLE...PARKVILLE...NEW FREEDOM...MANCHESTER...JACOBUS...
HANOVER...HALLAM...GLEN ROCK...EMIGSVILLE...DOVER...DILLSBURG...
DELTA...DALLASTOWN...CODORUS AND BROGUE

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 253 AND 283...I-83 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 1 AND 35.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 222...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 94...
STATE ROAD 97...STATE ROAD 501.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CREATE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE
INCH OR LARGER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGE. MOVE INSIDE A PERMANENT BUILDING
NOW TO BE SAFE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7728 4008 7712 4011 7708 4032 7615
4030 7613 3976 7606 3972 7610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 246DEG 11KT 4006 7681

$$

FORECASTER: CR/RR
OMG i had to adjust the pages to 125% to read this
blog clearly sucks getting old
nice little thunder storm rolling through tonight
also
Quoting ktymisty:


I get a lot of news about Fukushima from the Fukushima Dairy website. The chatbox is a bit depressing to 'listen to' but it's got some very good info.


EneNews has good daily info....

Link
U.S. Makes Strides on Climate Change

Posted by Tim Profeta of Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions,
Duke University on July 19, 2012


As Grist puts it, contrary to popular belief, the U.S. is making progress on climate change. Overall, the country's carbon emissions fell 1.7 percent last year - in part because of the explosive growth of natural gas and the Great Recession. Looking at energy-related carbon emissions in the last five years, the U.S. has experienced a roughly 6 percent drop. In fact, total greenhouse gas emissions are not expected to reach 2010 levels again until 2030, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

...

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/07/1 9/u-s-makes-strides-on-climate-change/
1147. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
843 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

MDZ004-005-009-010-VAZ030-031-042-052-501-WVZ053- 200130-
FREDERICK MD-MONTGOMERY MD-WARREN VA-CLARKE VA-JEFFERSON WV-
CARROLL MD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-HOWARD MD-LOUDOUN VA-
843 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FREDERICK...MONTGOMERY...WARREN...
CLARKE...JEFFERSON...CARROLL...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...HOWARD AND LOUDOUN COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HARRY GROVE STADIUM TO PURCELLVILLE TO 2 MILES NORTH
OF MARKHAM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LINCOLN...HAMILTON...DOUBS...ADAMSTOWN...
ASHVILLE...ADA...PAEONIAN SPRINGS...BUCKEYSTOWN...TUSCARORA AND ST.
LOUIS.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 7698 3926 7705 3905 7730 3906 7733
3885 7753 3879 7769 3887 7821 3915 7783
3948 7748
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 270DEG 21KT 3941 7743 3915 7771
3893 7801

$$


BJL
1149. Patrap
itsa Mojo rising..
Good evening everybody are the models showing a trough split like last time or they have drop it?
Alright so I had just over 5 inches of rain between Monday and Wednesday this week, and I had a little over 7 inches of rain last week. As much as I love all this rain and thunderstorms, it's getting out of control, water is still flowing out of my front yard into the gutter and it hasn't rained since yesterday afternoon. The ground has reached the super saturation point, I think a couple drier days are needed. I will however be happy to see a tropical wave bring a return to widespread heavy storms with deep tropical moisture making a big comeback by Sunday.] of course :)

It seems like all year my area couldn't buy a drop of rain, now it just keeps coming. I've had more than 25 inches of rain since June 1st, needless to say it's been a while since we've had this much rain... lol

1152. LargoFl
Quoting Doppler22:

Do u live in S. PA also?
No.The name says it all Baha.Lol.D.C
1155. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
alright so I had just over 5 inches of rain between Monday and Wednesday, and I had a little over 7 inches of rain last week. As much as I love all this rain and thunderstorms, it's getting out of control, water is still flowing out of my front yard into the gutter and it hasn't rained since yesterday afternoon. The ground has reached the super saturation point, I think a couple drier days are needed. I will be happy to see a tropical wave bring a return to widespread heavy storms with deep tropical moisture making a big comeback by Sunday however.

It seems like all year my area couldn't buy a drop of rain, now i feel like I live on the wet side of a mountain in the amazon basin lol. I've had more than 25 inches of rain since June 1st, needless to say it's been a while since we've had this much rain... lol

boy you got that right, seemed like it rained here for weeks not stop, sunny today hopefully tomorrow also
...From 8 PM NHC Discussion:
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 13N16W CONTINUING ALONG 14N30W TO 9N49W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N49W CONTINUING TO 9N61W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS...BUT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS NEARING THE AFRICAN COASTLINE.

From Atlantic Ocean Discussion
...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 28N40W...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC CENTERED JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N20W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVES...WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
WALTON
Quoting wxchaser97:



nice big jump north of the ITCZ/Monsoon trof
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
U.S. Makes Strides on Climate Change

Posted by Tim Profeta of Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions,
Duke University on July 19, 2012


As Grist puts it, contrary to popular belief, the U.S. is making progress on climate change. Overall, the country’s carbon emissions fell 1.7 percent last year—in part because of the explosive growth of natural gas and the Great Recession. Looking at energy-related carbon emissions in the last five years, the U.S. has experienced a roughly 6 percent drop. In fact, total greenhouse gas emissions are not expected to reach 2010 levels again until 2030, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

...

So emissions drop, yet drought strengthens....
ECMWF is forecasting continued cooling in the EPAC, I'm really starting to doubt a bonified El Nino.



1160. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
alright so I had just over 5 inches of rain between Monday and Wednesday, and I had a little over 7 inches of rain last week. As much as I love all this rain and thunderstorms, it's getting out of control, water is still flowing out of my front yard into the gutter and it hasn't rained since yesterday afternoon. The ground has reached the super saturation point, I think a couple drier days are needed. I will be happy to see a tropical wave bring a return to widespread heavy storms with deep tropical moisture making a big comeback by Sunday however.

It seems like all year my area couldn't buy a drop of rain, now i feel like I live on the wet side of a mountain in the amazon basin lol. I've had more than 25 inches of rain since June 1st, needless to say it's been a while since we've had this much rain... lol

At least the grass is nice and green, although the lady across the street from me needs to cut hers because it's getting out of control. Also the mosquitos are out in full force and they sure love to hang around me, must be that sweet blood.
1164. LargoFl
1166. LargoFl
1169. Gearsts
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
ECMWF is forecasting continued cooling in the EPAC, I'm really starting to doubt a bonified El Nino.



Can i have the link to that?
1170. wxmod
Russia Fire Storm, top; China Smog, middle; Smoked Alaska, bottom.
All MODIS satellite images today.






1171. LargoFl
Up to now, tropical waves over African land look stronger than over the Atl.... Once they reach the water they start degrading....

1174. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
913 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

KYC001-045-087-137-155-217-200135-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0417.000000T0000Z-120720T0135Z/
LINCOLN KY-MARION KY-TAYLOR KY-ADAIR KY-CASEY KY-GREEN KY-
913 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 935 PM
EDT/835 PM CDT/ FOR EASTERN GREEN...CASEY...NORTHERN ADAIR...
TAYLOR...SOUTHERN MARION AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 910 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF TURKEYTOWN TO
SWEENEYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
LIBERTY...
STANFORD...
GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...
MOUNT GILEAD AND HASKINGSVILLE...
PRICETOWN AND HOLMES...
RUBERT FORD AND RHEBER...
ARGYLE AND PHIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED. WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. TAKE COVER NOW!

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8450 3734 8457 3714 8486 3714 8500
3718 8504 3714 8508 3714 8551 3746 8556
3757 8462 3748 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 312DEG 32KT 3740 8435 3733 8535
WIND...HAIL 70MPH <.50IN

$$
nofailsafe~ One of the things I do to help with climate change is eat real, organic food from local sources, including growing as much of it myself as possible. Near 15% of energy is used on agriculture on a large scale. Big Ag is by far the largest forcing of the 3rd most worrisome greenhouse gas Nitrous Oxide. Growing food with little human labor includes the use of pesticides & fertilizers that are causing the dead zones in not just the Gulf of Mexico but here in the Indian River. Last year disturbing amounts of Round Up was found in the rain over the Mississippi Basin.

I does look expensive & daunting at the start. Started small & easy with the garden, just a few pots. Used compost & such to grow in. Some of our waste doesn't need a ride to the dump, it can easily be turned to free dirt with the fertilizer already included. Chickens were a step up, they turn food scrap to fertilizer & produce eggs. Saw some where in Europe they required at least two chickens a household to help keep landfill space available & fertilizer use down.

Started by cutting out genetically modified food & asking where my food was coming from. Tried to keep mostly to the southeast since I live in FL. Learned what seasons food is harvested, tasted & learned to eat the local fare. It was a larger learning experience than the gardening. Started making jams, breads, learned canning, freezing & such. Saves money & time shopping.

Putting up my own food plus expanding the garden a raised bed or a few pots a year eventually saved enough money to buy grass fed meat & such. Over all I'm now paying out less than some of my top couponing friends & unlike energy efficient things I did that just save money, this has saved money & health. Never ate better. Saves time to send the kids out in the garden to snack. Pretty sure that heavy bearing passionfruit covering the south side of the house brought the power bill down even more in this heat.
1177. LargoFl
Some real dangerous storms down the middle of the country, listen to your local warnings folks, stay safe out there, some of these storms have 70 mph winds
1178. mati
Quoting redwagon:

Thank you for a very lucid and thoughtful analysis.

Your argument I would classify as emissions-based observations. But over time, much bigger emissions - The Dust Bowl, Krakatoa, in recent history; the GOM asteroid, and countless pre-historic emission catastrophies have still swung back to equilibrium with a time of the event.

My argument is that if there is very recent change in climate, it is not emissions-based, but change in the water-cycle due to the availability over land of water that used to be cycling over that land but no longer is. The anomalies over landmass originate in ground and troposphere water or lack of it; the symptoms show us where the changes are coming from.


My Argument is that it is due to the decrease in Pirates.
I provide evidence as follows:

Link

This is more than equivalent to your justifications

Deformed plants are found in a contaminated area of Southern Ibaraki %u2013 (Map below)


A thousand small fish found dead in Kasumi River, Tokyo
Posted on July 19, 2012
July 19, 2012 JAPAN On 7/17/2012, around one thousand of small fish such as Japanese dace were found dead for 500m of Kasumi river Aoume city Tokyo. A citizen reported it to the city office at 17:15 of 7/17/2012. According to their water-quality test, oxygen concentration is normal, chlorine or cyanogen were not detected. Tokyo metropolitan government is going to check if a factory dumped waste water or agricultural chemical in the upper stream. Last November, about 5000 of small fish such as Japanese dace were found dead at the same location too, but they could not identify the cause either. Fukushima Diary

1180. LargoFl
1181. LargoFl
1183. mati
Quoting sunlinepr:
M4.5 quake hits Fukushima — Third M4 in last 24 hours

Link


Japanese being allowed to move into Fukusima exclusion zones:

Link
1185. wxmod
Quoting Skyepony:
nofailsafe~ One of the things I do to help with climate change is eat real, organic food from local sources, including growing as much of it myself as possible. Near 15% of energy is used on agriculture on a large scale. Big Ag is by far the largest forcing of the 3rd most worrisome greenhouse gas Nitrous Oxide. Growing food with little human labor includes the use of pesticides & fertilizers that are causing the dead zones in not just the Gulf of Mexico but here in the Indian River. Last year disturbing amounts of Round Up was found in the rain over the Mississippi Basin.

I does look expensive & daunting at the start. Started small & easy with the garden, just a few pots. Used compost & such to grow in. Some of our waste doesn't need a ride to the dump, it can easily be turned to free dirt with the fertilizer already included. Chickens were a step up, they turn food scrap to fertilizer & produce eggs. Saw some where in Europe they required at least two chickens a household to help keep landfill space available & fertilizer use down.

Started by cutting out genetically modified food & asking where my food was coming from. Tried to keep mostly to the southeast since I live in FL. Learned what seasons food is harvested, tasted & learned to eat the local fare. It was a larger learning experience than the gardening. Started making jams, breads, learned canning, freezing & such. Saves money & time shopping.

Putting up my own food plus expanding the garden a raised bed or a few pots a year eventually saved enough money to buy grass fed meat & such. Over all I'm now paying out less than some of my top couponing friends & unlike energy efficient things I did that just save money, this has saved money & health. Never ate better. Saves time to send the kids out in the garden to snack. Pretty sure that heavy bearing passionfruit covering the south side of the house brought the power bill down even more in this heat.


Simple things add up. TV shows and commercials promote extremely wasteful lifestyles. You can live better on less fuel and less money if you just pay attention to what's real compared to what's hype and advertisement.

People, wean yourselves from TV.
Typhoon Khanun sweeps across Korea, leaving 1 dead
Posted on July 19, 2012

Link

July 19, 2012 – KOREA – Typhoon Khanun dumped heavy rains on the nation on Thursday morning, leaving one dead, tens of thousands of households without electricity and major transportation systems at a halt before it subsided in the afternoon. The government said that the first tropical storm of this year left less-than-feared damage. The Korean Meteorological Administration cleared most of the typhoon alerts and warnings nationwide as of 1pm (12pm Singapore time). The state weather agency said that the typhoon reached Korea on Wednesday where it lost its power and turned into an extratropical cyclone in the seas off Sokcho, Gangwon Province. Still, torrential downpours and strong winds were expected to continue until late Thursday night in some parts of the country, it said. –Strait Times
1187. mati
Quoting sunlinepr:

Deformed plants are found in a contaminated area of Southern Ibaraki %u2013 (Map below)


A thousand small fish found dead in Kasumi River, Tokyo
Posted on July 19, 2012
July 19, 2012 JAPAN On 7/17/2012, around one thousand of small fish such as Japanese dace were found dead for 500m of Kasumi river Aoume city Tokyo. A citizen reported it to the city office at 17:15 of 7/17/2012. According to their water-quality test, oxygen concentration is normal, chlorine or cyanogen were not detected. Tokyo metropolitan government is going to check if a factory dumped waste water or agricultural chemical in the upper stream. Last November, about 5000 of small fish such as Japanese dace were found dead at the same location too, but they could not identify the cause either. Fukushima Diary



I bet it is hormono-chemical distruptors:

Link
1188. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KYC109-121-125-147-199-203-231-235-200230-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0178.120720T0129Z-120720T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
929 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
WESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 928 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAMP WILDCAT TO BLOSS TO
SCIENCE HILL TO 12 MILES WEST OF LIBERTY TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELL SPRINGS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...LONDON...BARBOURVILLE...MONTICELLO...WI LLIAMSBURG...
HAZEL PATCH...HOGUE...SHOPVILLE...VICTORY...BILLOWS...WO OD CREEK
LAKE...OAKLEY...STAB...HARE...MAGNUM...CARMICHAEL. ..POINTER...EAST
BERNSTADT...BENT AND BERNSTADT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8495 3696 8490 3699 8485
3705 8491 3712 8491 3725 8471 3728 8441
3735 8415 3682 8378 3675 8396 3672 8428
3678 8475 3679 8502 3684 8507 3686 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 326DEG 25KT 3725 8419 3720 8434
3718 8466 3725 8513 3723 8535
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
About 3,000 people in a city of southwestern Japanese island of Kyushu were forced to evacuate their homes again on Thursday due to threats of landslide and flood caused by heavy rain. According to Japan's public broadcaster NHK, the residents in Aso City where landslides hit houses last week were ordered to evacuate their houses on Thursday morning as heavy rain continued to fall on the area covered with volcanic ash soil which is very fragile. In Aso City and its surrounding region of Kumamoto Prefecture, at least 23 people were found dead and two went missing after landslides hit houses last week in more than 60 places. Heavy rain caused by Tropical Storm Khanun poured in several areas of northern Kyushu which saw hourly rainfall between 40 and 50 mm in the morning hours. The Japan Meteorological agency warned as the tropical storm moves north, heavy rainfall may trigger further floods and landslides in Kyushu till Friday.
1190. akailm
I would think anybody that would grow their food would consider what this says.. a real way to save h20, and a use for the so called carbon pollution,, it's real.. not bulimic.. a possible solution to the hysteria confronting us.examine if you can.. with a open mind.http://co2au.blogspot.com/2011/12/v-behavioru rldefaultvmlo_1587.html
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
455 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

VALID 00Z FRI JUL 20 2012 - 00Z SUN JUL 22 2012

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL STATES...

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EAST COAST AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...


THE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COASTS. UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, VERY HOT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS
CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWS FOR NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS NEAR
100 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
TEXAS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE EAST COAST TROUGH, THERE SHOULD BE A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE AMONG THE WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST,
INCLUDING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE OTHER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY. STRONG LIFT SUPPLIED BY THIS CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION
OF THE COUNTRY. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE DISTURBANCE ASSUMES A
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

ELSEWHERE, MID-LEVEL IMPULSES AND AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE REGION BEING ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

...In other hydrological news, a 1500 year record of precipitation patterns in North America was published this weekin the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The authors use oxygen isotopes in lake sediments and a physical model to infer changes in rainfall, with findings that are discordant with what has previously been understood from the tree ring record.

This research helps to inform our understanding of drought regimes in North America on centennial/millennial timescales.The authors demonstrate that the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptionally wet conditions during the Medieval Warm Period (900-1300 AD) and much drier conditions during the Little Ice Age(1450-1850 AD) which is in direct contrastto what has been shownto have occurredin the Southwest. The findings have been related to the climate dynamics associated with the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI) the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). Asis often the subject in this blog, these records of past climate help to inform our understanding of what we can expect, and perhaps even predict from our current climate. And in North America the hydrological cycle is an increasingly topical issue, with not enough water in the south, and a little too much in the north.

http://oncirculation.com/2012/07/20/water-water-e veywhere/
1193. LargoFl
Wildfires have forced the evacuation of dozens of villagers from their homes in Madeira on Thursday, with the Portuguese authorities sending teams from the mainland to help overwhelmed local firefighters. Portugal had suffered from a severe drought this year before being hit by temperatures of up to 40C this week, which has triggered forest blazes on the mainland too. More than 300 firefighters were struggling on Thursday to put out wildfires near Tavira, a popular holiday destination in the Algarve region near the Spanish border. Authorities in Madeira have used planes and helicopters to combat the flames, including an aircraft sent by Spain's civil defence. Portugal sent a military transport plane with 83 firefighters to Madeira, where the flames briefly threatened the outskirts of Funchal, the archipelago's capital, on Wednesday night. The Portuguese interior minister, Miguel Macedo, is also in Madeira to co-ordinate the efforts. While Funchal was mostly out of danger on Thursday, television footage from the archipelago's smaller island of Porto Santo showed houses catching fire and firefighters telling residents of Camacha to abandon the area. "The changing wind is strongly compromising the effort to put out the flames, and we only have five firemen there and one truck," the local fire brigade chief, Afonso Nobrega, told the Lusa news agency. SIC television showed a local man shouting for help to get three women out of a building whose door was on fire. Enveloped in heavy smoke, local residents sprayed water on the outside of their homes while others fled. There have been no reports of deaths of serious injuries. This year's drought, coupled with scorching weather, poses a threat that fires will escalate during the hottest period in late July and August.
Over the past 3 days(today, yesterday, and Tuesday) I've went from 102F, sunny, hot, and dry to 70F, rainy, wet, and cool. My average temperature is 82F.
1196. LargoFl
Farming pushed natural drought into disaster--and could do so again.

NEW YORK – Climate scientists using computer models to simulate the 1930s Dust Bowl on the U.S Great Plains have found that dust raised by farmers probably amplified and spread a natural drop in rainfall, turning an ordinary drying cycle into an agricultural collapse. The researchers say the study raises concern that current pressures on farmland from population growth and climate change could worsen current food crises by leading to similar events in other regions.

Recent studies indicate that periodic droughts in the western United States are controlled by naturally occurring periods of cool sea-surface water temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific—so-called La Niña phases. Via long-distance winds, these phases indirectly affect faraway rain patterns. In addition to the 1930s, such patterns have occurred in the 1850-60s, 1870s, 1890s, 1950s, and 1999 to present.

What made the 1930s different was the arrival of farmers onto the Great Plains, where they replaced drought-resistant wild prairie grasses with fragile wheat, neglected to plant cover crops in unused fields, and allowed livestock to overgraze pastures. When the 1932-1939 drought struck, plants shriveled and ever more bare soil was exposed. The land was quickly eroded by gigantic dust storms, and farming collapsed. Skies were chronically darkened on and off; in some years, an estimated 770 million metric tons of topsoil were lost, and over the whole time, 3.5 million people were displaced--one of the 20th century’s worst environmental disasters. The new study finds that farm dust probably fed the disaster, doubling the drop in rainfall, and moving the drought itself northward into major farming regions.

The researchers, based at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (both affiliates of Columbia University’s Earth Institute) used a computer model to simulate a 1930s drought driven only by the change in sea-surface temperature. This showed a 5% drop in rainfall, centered over northern Mexico and the U.S. southwest, where little agriculture then took place. This would have affected the Great Plains too, but probably would have not brought disaster. Then the modelers added in the effects of dust, using data from the ‘30s that indicated dust sources, and allowing the computer to create dust storms. This yielded a simulated event eerily like the real one, with a full 10% drop in rain—to just 18 inches a year--and centered over the prairie farm regions of north Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa.

Lead author Benjamin Cook, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postdoctoral researcher affiliated with both Lamont and Goddard, said the effect occurred because dust particles suspended in air reflect solar radiation. Studies by researchers in other parts of the world show that this causes a drop in temperatures at or near the soil surface, lessening evaporation of moisture into the air, and thus decreasing precipitation even further. Dust on the Great Plains helped draw the drought northward like a siphon, said Cook. “This is what made the Dust Bowl the Dust Bowl,” he said. “It was a process that fed on itself.”

The U.S. southwest is currently suffering a serious long-term drought that threatens agriculture and population growth there. Cook said it is unlikely that this by itself will cause another Dust Bowl in the United States. Among other things, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, founded in response to the ‘30s crisis, shifted farmers into more sustainable practices. On the other hand, Cook points out that many scientists believe hard-pressed farmers and herders in places like China and Africa’s Sahel region may be repeating the experience, ruining marginal lands in order to feed themselves in the short term. “This highlights the fact that humans can alter natural events and make them worse,” said coauthor Richard Seager, a modeler at Lamont. Seager says that scientists studying global climate change predict many subtropical regions will dry in coming years. “That, in combination with the pressure from rising population and demand for food, could lead to a similar cycle of drought, dust storms and more drought,” he said. “The lesson of the Dust Bowl is there to be learned.”

“Dust and sea surface temperature forcing of the 1930s ‘Dust Bowl’ drought” appears in the current online edition of Geophysical Research Letters: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0808/2008GL033486 /.

###

More information, and images: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/d ust_storms.shtml
People are reporting winds of up to 50mph with these storms with very heavy rain fall with intense lightning and thunder..Oh lord the flash backs are all ready occuring.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
DCC001-MDC017-031-033-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610- 685-200215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0221.120720T0134Z-120720T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF MANASSAS PARK IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
WESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 930 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GREAT FALLS TO WOLF TRAP TO CENTREVILLE...AND WERE
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VIENNA...
TYSONS CORNER...
PIMMIT HILLS...
MANTUA...
THE AMERICAN LEGION BRIDGE...
THE I66 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...
BETHESDA...
LAKE RIDGE...
BURKE...
ANNANDALE...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE
INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3874 7688 3855 7708 3882 7754 3895 7739
3907 7732 3895 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 287DEG 18KT 3902 7723 3892 7727
3883 7738

$$


BJL
Reporting blinding rain, wind gusts about 50 MPH and pea size hail here with these storms.
Quoting Skyepony:
nofailsafe~ One of the things I do to help with climate change is eat real, organic food from local sources, including growing as much of it myself as possible. .


I'm into learning how to identify edible weeds.... And how to cultivate them...

Check Link

This one in Spanish is from PR, listing 27 wild or local plants you can eat...

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Reporting blinding rain, wind gusts about 50 MPH and pea size hail here with these storms.
Breath in..breath out..breath in breath out..Flash backs!!!
I can't believe fox 5 sorry *** their actually playing a reality T.V show and not warning people of the approching storm.
1204. Patrap
We started with 3 Hanging Topsy Turvy Bell peppers, maters, and Hot peppers.

Now we have a boatload and a Side Garden in the yard.

Simple steps that improved our lives, teaches the neighborhoods kids to Garden,so we all win.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My prediction for August is 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.
Quite the forecast
Quoting LargoFl:
Farming pushed natural drought into disaster--and could do so again.



Food prices expected to rise as U.S. suffers through worst drought in half a century
Posted on July 19, 2012
July 19, 2012 – IOWA – The worst drought in a half century will continue to plague most of the U.S. Midwest crop region for at least the next 10 days, with only occasional showers providing some relief mainly in the east, an agricultural meteorologist said on Thursday. America’s top two corn and soybean producing states, Iowa and Illinois, are now in the center of the drought as the dryness spreads to the northwest to leech what little moisture remains in already parched soils. “It looks a little wetter today for Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, but the west is still dry with above-normal temperatures,” said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather. Rain for the next 10 days will run the gamut from just 40 to 75 percent of normal, with the greatest stress in the western Midwest crop states such as top producer Iowa. “It got up to 102 to 103 degrees Fahrenheit in Iowa yesterday with no rain, and will be in the 90s today with no rain,” Nicholls said. Rainfall overnight Wednesday left up to 1.5 inches in Chicago and an inch in Rockford, Illinois. “Only isolated rains, no drought buster,” he stressed. In addition to rain in northeastern Illinois, showers fell in southern Wisconsin, Indiana and southwestern Michigan. “It will be cooler on Friday but the heat will be back for the weekend into early next week. The 11- to 15-day forecast shows the ridge moving west over the Rockies so that may help cut back on the heat, but there is still no significant rain in sight,” he said. An atmospheric high pressure ridge has entrenched itself over the heart of the U.S. corn and soybean producing states, preventing moisture from moving into the crop belt, leading to a buildup of heat, causing crop losses and spawning record-high corn and soy prices. Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Thursday predicted the heat would last longer next week than had earlier been forecast. More than half of the Midwest was severely dry. “The most concern is in west central Indiana, much of Illinois, far northern Missouri, most of Iowa, southwest Minnesota, southern South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas,” said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor. As the drought, rated the worst since 1956, expands to the northern and western Midwest, areas that had previously been spared, analysts were slashing corn yield estimates by the hour. Some were also starting to cut their forecasts on the number of acres that will be harvested as farmers opt to plow under some of their parched fields to claim insurance. –Reuters
1208. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:
Up to now, tropical waves over African land look stronger than over the Atl.... Once they reach the water they start degrading....


Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?
1209. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?


Lack of Fresca?
Sue Palka said the storms are intensifying!!
1211. Gearsts
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?
Organized convection along the Near Equatorial Trough over North Africa during the Northern Hemisphere Summer results in perturbations forming. Meso-scale Convective Complexes (MCC) and Meso-scale Convective Systems (MCS) over this region are also responsible (if not the primary source) for the generation of tropical waves, also providing in the process cyclonic rotation to these waves.
Mid/Upper level disturbances occasionally manifest on the lower atmosphere. It is easy for meteorologists to confuse these perturbations with an easterly wave, as they will generally have the classic Inverted “V” signature on the satellite imagery. What differentiates the upper level perturbations from “true” tropical waves is the cold core nature, or beginnings, of these mid/upper perturbations. A perfect example is an upper level TUTT low, which is a cold core system. This is not to say that cold core systems can not evolve into a warm core system, but this is mostly a scale interaction issue (synoptic scale favorably interacting with the meso-scale).
It is highly debatable which level is best for tropical waves analysis and forecasting. A tropical wave that manifests to the 700 hPa height indicates a well organized perturbation, with potential for weather generation. However, one at 850 hPa, under favorable conditions, could gradually amplify to the middle atmosphere. Thus is best to analyze both surfaces.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sue Palka said the storms are intensifying!!


I can believe that.

Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?


Anyone knows why?....
1214. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


Lack of Fresca?
hehehehehehehhh !
Maybe we can seed them with some Fresca, and see what happens next!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I can believe that.

Me either not a surprise as this seems to be a sweet spot for storms to explode...

Ahhhh ^#&3 this storm..
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?

moisture overload, no convective heating, stable air.... just a guess
1217. pottery
Quoting Gearsts:
Organized convection along the Near Equatorial Trough over North Africa during the Northern Hemisphere Summer results in perturbations forming. Meso-scale Convective Complexes (MCC) and Meso-scale Convective Systems (MCS) over this region are also responsible (if not the primary source) for the generation of tropical waves, also providing in the process cyclonic rotation to these waves.
Mid/Upper level disturbances occasionally manifest on the lower atmosphere. It is easy for meteorologists to confuse these perturbations with an easterly wave, as they will generally have the classic Inverted “V” signature on the satellite imagery. What differentiates the upper level perturbations from “true” tropical waves is the cold core nature, or beginnings, of these mid/upper perturbations. A perfect example is an upper level TUTT low, which is a cold core system. This is not to say that cold core systems can not evolve into a warm core system, but this is mostly a scale interaction issue (synoptic scale favorably interacting with the meso-scale).
It is highly debatable which level is best for tropical waves analysis and forecasting. A tropical wave that manifests to the 700 hPa height indicates a well organized perturbation, with potential for weather generation. However, one at 850 hPa, under favorable conditions, could gradually amplify to the middle atmosphere. Thus is best to analyze both surfaces.

Had to read that a couple of times.....

But, OK.
You are saying that in some cases these are not "true" trop. waves, and therefore don't behave accordingly ?
Aaand the powers out... Crap, I was skypeing my GF :(
Thunder getting louder..Bright flashes of constant lightning....

Op! I'm screwed...
1220. Patrap
1218.


Ahh, a cuss and a GF update.

Were becoming FB and Twitter no doubt
1221. Gearsts
Quoting pottery:

Had to read that a couple of times.....

But, OK.
You are saying that in some cases these are not "true" trop. waves, and therefore don't behave accordingly ?
According to Levi they are not fully tropical when over land.
July,19 2012


July, 19 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
9:00 AM JST July 20 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.6N 124.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.7N 122.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel


Additional Information
======================

Tropical depression will accelerate for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.0 after 24 hours
Quoting Patrap:
Ahh, a cuss and a GF update.

Were becoming FB and Twitter no doubt


I was talking about the power being off... Nothing to do with my GF besides that I was talking to her when it died
1225. Patrap
GFS Global View Description

The global perspective of this model is useful in watching tropical waves exiting the African coast and moving into the Atlantic during the Hurricane season.
1226. nigel20
Quoting Neapolitan:
The "Nation's Breadbasket" looks like, er, toast:

Click for larger image:

drought


...or a breadbasket case, if you will...

The Drought will have a major impact on global food prices...good evening everyone!
1227. pottery
Quoting Gearsts:
According to Levi they are not fully tropical when over land.

OK, but I still don't know the reason for the fizzle over the ocean that so many of these potent looking things do.

Guess I'll have to dig some more, and try to find a reason.

Any links on this would be appreciated.
1228. Patrap

Tropical Waves Exiting the African Coast

During the "Cape Verde" season from August through mid October, this is where storms threatening SXM usually come from. Waves move east to west just north of the "Intertropical Convergence Zone" (ITCZ). Focus on storms between 10 and 20 degrees north.... Starting in late July, "shearing" winds over the tropical Atlantic begin to diminish, heralding the beginning of the Cape Verde season. Its peak is September. Satellite photos update constantly.
1229. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

The Drought will have a major impact on global food prices...good evening everyone!


Reality sucks, ent ?
Welcome to The Warming.....
Great lightning show, up close to Howard U..... gusty winds and sheets of rain..... It smells like salt!!
1231. Patrap
Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog
Tracking African Easterly Waves: Genesis


African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are warm season type disturbances, which are unique to the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. These disturbances form over Northern Africa and propagate westward at a mean speed of 15 knots. African easterly waves have wavelengths typical near 2500 km or 3-5 days. The Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was conducted in 1974. Our understanding of the structure and dynamics of AEWs was enhanced by analyses using GATE observations. However, GATE experiments where located at the coast of Africa, when waves had already matured and exited the coast. Today, I am going to give a description of the genesis of AEWs using a collection of post-Gate researches, focusing on the one-month period between June 15-July 15 2008 and the two-week period between August 1-15 2007, as synoptic overviews, both periods of active wave development, which led to Hurricanes Bertha and Dean respectively.

Synoptic Overview of Western Africa

Before we continue, we have to understand the synoptic patterns over Northern Africa. The Northern section of Africa is described as having a desert climate of low precipitation and soil moisture and intense heating during the summer. As a result of intense heating, air rises in convection and forms a thermal low. This is the first feature we come across – The Saharan Thermal Low. Now this is not like any low-pressure system as it is very shallow, only extending to about 800 mb. Above the thermal low, air expands like an inflated balloon and cause pressure heights to shift upwards creating a high aloft. This is the second feature we will come across – the Saharan High.
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?



In this paper

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/tropical/Thorncroft_ Hodges.pdf

in section 3. Growth and Decay rates

it mentions one explanation for the decay coming off the coast being due to the "relatively cool" SST there
Lightning is really close now, bright and strong..... Heavy downpours as well, flooding WILL be an issue
1234. bappit
here's one

" it was Burpee (1972) who documented that the waves were being generated by an instability of the African easterly jet. (This instability - known as baroclinic-barotropic instability - is where the value of the potential vorticity begins to decrease toward the north.) The jet arises as a result of the reversed lower-tropospheric temperature gradient over western and central North Africa due to extremely warm temperatures over the Saharan Desert in contrast with substantially cooler temperatures along the Gulf of Guinea coast."

So when they lose the north-south temperature gradient found over land, they weaken. That's how I read it.
1235. nigel20
1236. Patrap
I think of it like this,,even when one has a engine ready to go, say a one cylinder lawn mower. And all the numbers are right and the fuels there, the spark, the air..and you pull the cord and nada.

But some engines, they fire bada boom, even though they old rusty, and not as perfect as the first.

Some sputter along till they find a better environment, some roll off with good mo and rotation.

Thats how I look at it in laymens terms Pottery.







1237. pottery
Posts 1231-1234.

Thanks. That should keep me quiet for a while!
A shame that, I know, but try to carry on without me.....

:):))
Quoting Patrap:
Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog
Tracking African Easterly Waves: Genesis


African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are warm season type disturbances, which are unique to the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. These disturbances form over Northern Africa and propagate westward at a mean speed of 15 knots. African easterly waves have wavelengths typical near 2500 km or 3-5 days. The Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was conducted in 1974. Our understanding of the structure and dynamics of AEWs was enhanced by analyses using GATE observations. However, GATE experiments where located at the coast of Africa, when waves had already matured and exited the coast. Today, I am going to give a description of the genesis of AEWs using a collection of post-Gate researches, focusing on the one-month period between June 15-July 15 2008 and the two-week period between August 1-15 2007, as synoptic overviews, both periods of active wave development, which led to Hurricanes Bertha and Dean respectively.

Synoptic Overview of Western Africa

Before we continue, we have to understand the synoptic patterns over Northern Africa. The Northern section of Africa is described as having a desert climate of low precipitation and soil moisture and intense heating during the summer. As a result of intense heating, air rises in convection and forms a thermal low. This is the first feature we come across – The Saharan Thermal Low. Now this is not like any low-pressure system as it is very shallow, only extending to about 800 mb. Above the thermal low, air expands like an inflated balloon and cause pressure heights to shift upwards creating a high aloft. This is the second feature we will come across – the Saharan High.


I would like to see him back posting analysis of the waves.
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Lightning is really close now, bright and strong..... Heavy downpours as well, flooding WILL be an issue
Yes this has to be some of the loudest thunder I've heard in my life time.
1240. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
I think of it like this,,even when one has a engine ready to go, say a one cylinder lawn mower. And all the numbers are right and the fuel s there, the spark, the air..and you pull the cord and nada.

But some engines, they fire bada boom, even though they old rusty, and not as perfect as the first.

Some sputter along till they find a better environment, some roll off with good mo and rotation.

Thats how I look at it in laymens terms Pottery




Great !
This I can comprendo !

Later. (or not, as the case may be)
We need to send some of this rain to the areas that need it!!!
1242. wxmod
Global pollution: ships, ships everywhere. Chug,chug,chug. The ocean is dying. Out of site, but not out of mind much longer. When the food is dead, you are hungry.



1243. nigel20
nvm
Rain coming down really hard.Power went out for two minuets then turned back on.Whew.Storm is stil not over.Still bright flashes of lightning and loud thunder.Nature is sure putting on a show.
Quoting nigel20:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS BAND WILL
REACH THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PR AND USVI ON FRIDAY. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE
TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1247. bappit
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


In this paper

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/tropical/Thorncroft_ Hodges.pdf


"Another growth region is located over northern Venezuela and Colombia, which also coincides with a genesis peak (cf. Fig. 5b). This is a region identi%uFB01ed by Molinari et al. (1997) as a potential vorticity sign reversal region. They suggested that AEWs could be reinvigorated there on their way into the eastern Paci%uFB01c."

Venuzuelan waves
Quoting stormchaser19:
July,19 2012


July, 19 2011

Either those two years are freakishly similar or you posted the same image twice.
1250. wxmod
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?


They suck up a bunch of sahara dust and that evens out the top to bottom temp of the clouds. No lapse rate equals no lift.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What's a good name for a facebook group for hurricanes?


GHB

GLOBAL
HURRICANE
BLOGERS
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Are you sure about that? I have a striking suspicion that at some point he probably said that.

Uh, yes it does matter. It matters very much so.


I'm pretty careful to say human-caused climate change increases the probability of certain extreme events. When discussing the crazy weather we've seen since 2010 in this post:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=2022

I said, "it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state."

Jeff Masters
1253. bappit
Here's another.

"African easterly waves have long been associated with the barotropic and baroclinic instability of the African easterly jet through meridional potential vorticity gradient reversals, which also may be achieved by concentrated convective heating of the ITCZ. A primary objective of this study is to explore whether African waves are initiated by the Charney-Stern instability in the region of reversed potential vorticity (PV) gradients, or whether convectively induced instability generates African waves, and the waves in turn enhance and organize the convection."

This one is from 2008 so it sounds like it is a bit complicated.
1254. bappit
Just use the steroid analogy in baseball. You know the overall increase is due to steroids but you don't know exactly which balls might have stayed in the park otherwise.
Wow the Doc is on late tonight.
This question i did in the afternoon can anybody respond?
The global models has the x factor of the SAL in his logic operation or only the dry air ?
1257. Patrap




Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing.
This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.
It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.
A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Quoting JeffMasters:


I'm pretty careful to say human-caused climate change increases the probability of certain extreme events. When discussing the crazy weather we've seen since 2010 in this post:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=2022

I said, "it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state."

Jeff Masters



This blog about "loading the dice" in terms of climate, helps me visualize the change...

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/craps/



One of the analogies sometimes used to explain the impact of global warming on the weather is that we're "loading the dice." Perhaps a better desrciption is that we're changing the dice.

...

And this illustrates one of the greatest potential dangers of global warming. If we increase the mean temperature (and we already have), of course we increase the likelihood of extreme heat waves (and we already have). But if, in addition, global warming increases the variance of regional temperatures, then we increase the likelihood of extreme heat waves by a lot. A helluva lot. The effect was profound when we only increased the standard deviation by a factor of 1.1 - what if it increases by a factor of 1.2 or even more? The increased likelihood of extreme heat would be astounding. What's more, we would also increase the likelihood of extreme cold spells!

In fact this applies to all weather phenomena, not just temperature. Climate change is likely to change the mean value of each, and increased variance will dramatically increase the likelihood of extremes, bringing more heat waves and cold spells, more flood and drought, etc. We may, in fact, already be witnessing exactly this phenomenon. Welcome to the rest of our lives.



Radar picture from 9:36 CDT of storms rolling over my head. Lots of lightning but nothing serious. The wind wasn't even that bad even though NWS said 70mph.
1261. Patrap
As the Warming increases the Global Water Vapor, we introduce more potential for Chaos as well.

And like CRS notes in the Loading the dice analogy,
well..it gloves nicely with the observations were seeing.
1263. nigel20
92W
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS BAND WILL
REACH THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PR AND USVI ON FRIDAY. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE
TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


Good news, the N Islands still need good rainfall amount !! :)
This and about $4.00 bucks well get a nice coffee at Starbucks, but thanks Doc. Nice blog sir and keep up the good work. Cuz were all still standing here.
1266. nigel20
Quoting CaribBoy:


Good news, the N Islands still need good rainfall amount !! :)

Hey CaribBoy! What island are you on?
1267. bappit
1256. The GISS climate model can take dust into account (source), but it is a climate model. My guess for the operational global weather models is no. I have two reasons for this opinion.

1) The effects of dust are not all that well understood (previous source), so they would not know how to account for it in the model.

2) There would have to be some way of including data on the dust in the model input in a timely fashion. I don't think there is a good source of information on that. The SAL satellite images I see do not seem to discriminate on the basis of actual dust. I think they just see dry air since they will indicate a SAL where there is no dust source.

But that's just my guess. Maybe someone knows for sure.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
ECMWF is forecasting continued cooling in the EPAC, I'm really starting to doubt a bonified El Nino.





I hate El Nino so this is great news. To me, El Nino means drought in the Eastern Caribbean (and probably elsewhere in the Caribbean)
Quoting nigel20:

Hey CaribBoy! What island are you on?


Hey :) I'm in St Maarten!
1270. nigel20
Quoting CaribBoy:


I hate El Nino so this is great news. To me, El Nino means drought in the Eastern Caribbean (and probably elsewhere in the Caribbean)

Yeah, it was extremely dry here in Jamaica and across the most Caribbean during the 2009/2010 el nino.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 30 day SOI continues with the uptick,tonight up to -3.8,well above the -8 El Nino threshold.



Could you please tell me what does that means?
Quoting CaribBoy:


Could you please tell me what does that means?

El Nino is delayed.
1273. EstherD
Quoting akailm:
I would think anybody that would grow their food would consider what this says.. a real way to save h20, and a use for the so called carbon pollution,, it's real.. not bulimic.. a possible solution to the hysteria confronting us.examine if you can.. with a open mind.http://co2au.blogspot.com/2011/12/v-behavioru rldefaultvmlo_1587.html


First, here's a working link to the article.

Second, although I haven't read the entire thing word for word, I can make a few general comments on what I have read.

"We conclude plant physiology has never been properly understood or in the correct theoretical context. We have improved this understanding..."

Oh boy. Red Flag Warning... Whenever someone starts out by saying, in effect, all the accepted science in some well-studied field is dead wrong, you just know what's coming: Pseudoscience dead ahead!

And indeed we're not disappointed. The author proceeds to throw out just about everything that's known about plant physiology and biochemistry, and then to rewrite what's left to suit his own "theory".

If that weren't enough, the author then expounds on the quantum chemistry of carbon, but gets it mostly wrong. Apparently, he's never had a chemistry course where hybrid molecular orbitals and bonding theory were explained. And again, these misunderstandings are used to justify the author's particular point of view.

There's more, including mistaking correlation for causality when proposing a link between increasing CO2 concentration and higher agricultural productivity, but the above examples should suffice to give a feeling for the level of scientific understanding of the author.

So no, sorry, there's not much in that article worth examining in depth.

But since I'm likely to be accused of scientific closed-mindedness for saying that, I'll give the author one last shot...

"Science became a tool of government in the 19th century. It is largely sponsored by government and the victim of politics wherein the truth is what is said by powerful people. This has led science to make some huge blunders that it often ignores in passing."

Uhh huh...
-- EstherD
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, it was extremely dry here in Jamaica and across the most Caribbean during the 2009/2010 el nino.


..then from mid 2010 to early 2012 it turned wetter than average thanks to La Nina condition (in my area). I really hope for at least a normal rainfall pattern to resume for the coming month..
Quoting wxmod:
Global pollution: ships, ships everywhere. Chug,chug,chug. The ocean is dying. Out of site, but not out of mind much longer. When the food is dead, you are hungry.





Those are chem trails
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

El Nino is delayed.


Thanks
Quoting CaribBoy:


Hey :) I'm in St Maarten!


The first time I went to St. Maarten (1984) We spent a week in Pelican Resort (Does not exists today). I was one of those fools who stood there near the fence of the airport and the beach, to watch a 747 departure...
1278. EricSFL
Quoting CaribBoy:


I hate El Nino so this is great news. To me, El Nino means drought in the Eastern Caribbean (and probably elsewhere in the Caribbean)

... And a cooler, wetter Florida during winter which I actually prefer. It all depends where you are.
1279. nigel20
Quoting CaribBoy:


Could you please tell me what does that means?

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Traditionally, this index has been calculated based on the differences in air pressure anomaly between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative SOI values coincide with abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño episodes. Prolonged periods of positive SOI values coincide with abnormally cold ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of La Niña episodes.

Link
Quoting CaribBoy:


Could you please tell me what does that means?
Quoting CaribBoy:


Could you please tell me what does that means?


Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than −8 often indicate EL NINO

Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a LA NINA

1281. Grothar
Quoting stormchaser19:


Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than −8 often indicate EL NINO

Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a LA NINA



Glad you cleared that up.
Quoting Patrap:
As the Warming increases the Global Water Vapor, we introduce more potential for Chaos as well.

And like CRS notes in the Loading the dice analogy,
well..it gloves nicely with the observations were seeing.


Patrap gets it.

More heat = more chaos

It's really not that complicated. Just like CO2 is a heat-trapping gas and if there's more of it, there's more heat trapped.

It's un-freaking-believable that some of these points have to be "debated."

Debate all you want about the degree to which our fossil fuel burning is part of the equation, but to say it's not part of the equation is denial, ignorance or both.

It's 2012 and we have barely evolved the discussion. Our political leaders are failing us and future generations.
1283. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:


The first time I went to St. Maarten (1984) We spent a week in Pelican Resort (Does not exists today). I was one of those fools who stood there near the fence of the airport and the beach, to watch a 747 departure...

Why is a public beach that close to an airport?
Quoting stormchaser19:


Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than −8 often indicate EL NINO

Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a LA NINA



So right now we are in a neutral phase.
made it safely to DC after 3 hrs of 100ft visibility in VA and DC.
Im tired.
Quoting CaribBoy:


So right now we are in a neutral phase.


SI,yeah
Quoting Grothar:


Glad you cleared that up.


And right now is at -3.8.
Quoting nigel20:

Why is a public beach that close to an airport?


I think it is for security reasons.... The PR LMM international airport track ends also in a coastal area....
Quoting nigel20:

Why is a public beach that close to an airport?


Airport probably couldn't buy the lands to keep people from doing that. Or maybe they thought people wouldn't dare try that.
Quoting nigel20:

Why is a public beach that close to an airport?


Staying right in the airplanes axis is dangerous... BUT despite the jetblast danger, folks really like watching takeoffs and landings just behind the runway. Most of the time nobody is injured, but sometimes accidents occurs.
Quoting sunlinepr:


I think it is for security reasons.... The PR LMM international airport track ends also in a coastal area....


pr,here is a video of those people at St Marteen Beach.

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


The first time I went to St. Maarten (1984) We spent a week in Pelican Resort (Does not exists today). I was one of those fools who stood there near the fence of the airport and the beach, to watch a 747 departure...


Almost 30 years after... things haven't changed much lol
1294. Grothar
Quoting nigel20:

Why is a public beach that close to an airport?


Hello, Nigel. I'm not sure why, but I guess when you live on a small island, you have to approach the airport from the water at some point.
Here is a girl being blown away at that St Maarten beach.

Link
I think it is for crash security reasons.... If an accident occurs it will be over water not over a populated area...
1298. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:


I think it is for security reasons.... The PR LMM international airport track ends also in a coastal area....
Quoting Astrometeor:


Airport probably couldn't buy the lands to keep people from doing that. Or maybe they thought people wouldn't dare try that.
Quoting CaribBoy:


Staying right in the airplanes axis is dangerous... BUT despite the jetblast danger, folks really like watching takeoffs and landings just behind the runway. Most of the time nobody is injured, but sometimes accidents occurs.

That seems to be a very dangerous practice
We had a terrible accident in 2009, but no one was seriously injured





1299. wxmod
Quoting weatherbro:


Those are chem trails



Of course they are bro.
Quoting nigel20:

Why is a public beach that close to an airport?


saw one of those in trinidad and tobago.

Quite a wind.
1301. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:


Hello, Nigel. I'm not sure why, but I guess when you live on a small island, you have to approach the airport from the water at some point.

Hey Grothar! That's correct.
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=s ew&area=west&type=wv&size=4 check out the Fujiwhara effect on the two lows in the northwest corner of the image.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a girl being blown away at that St Maarten beach.

Link


I had my 4 yr. old daughter and was standing in that small concrete fence... When the heat began blowing I jumped down behind the wall into the sand an covered and protected her... The other people standing in the cyclone fence had a real bad time...



WOOO! More rain for me! It was a rather nice lightning show.
Quoting sunlinepr:


I had my 4 yr. old daughter and was standing in that small concrete fence... When the heat began blowing I jumped down behind the wall into the sand an covered and protected her... The other people standing in the cyclone fence had a real bad time...



owwww
1309. nigel20
Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Power's back already!!!

1312. EstherD
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a girl being blown away at that St Maarten beach.

Link


That's really painful to watch! And in addition to all the obvious visible hazards, as someone who used to work in a hearing research lab, I can tell you on good authority that the intensity of the sound field behind a jet at takeoff is sufficient to cause permanent hearing damage after even a short exposure. (There's a reason why the all the airport ground crew wear ear protectors, ya know?)


Hard to believe these little storms which were down near south Andros 1/2 hour ago are now making enough noise that they woke me up just now...

Quoting EstherD:


That's really painful to watch! And in addition to all the obvious visible hazards, as someone who used to work in a hearing research lab, I can tell you on good authority that the intensity of the sound field behind a jet at takeoff is sufficient to cause permanent hearing damage after even a short exposure. (There's a reason why the all the airport ground crew wear ear protectors, ya know?)


Back in 1986 there were not so many warning signs like today... Also the 747 I watched was quite far from the cyclone fence (more or less 200 mts)...
1319. nigel20
Have a good night fellow bloggers...I'm off to bed.
Nite nigel
good night from dc all
Nite GS, Im off to bed as well everyone.
Why is a public beach that close to an airport?

I'd guess because that's likely the flattest part of the island... and knowing a lot of the Lesser Antilles are relatively mountainous, or at least hilly, I'd bet that's the main answer.

This map of St. Maarten seems to suggest that's prolly the main reason...

Good night all :)
Quoting nigel20:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic



What are the chances of this wave affecting the northeastern Caribbean - development or not?
everybodys gone to bed
1328. Tygor
Man it looks like this wave is going to go POOF again right off the coast.
Last Year


Now



Going to be more of a home grown peak of the season coming up.
1137 ktymisty: I get a lot of news about Fukushima from the Fukushima Dairy website. The chatbox is a bit depressing to 'listen to' but it's got some very good info.

The FukushimaDiary is garbage that detracts from serious reporting in the same way that the "flying saucer" folks buried good info about unidentified flying objects (much probably experimental military aircraft/missiles) under tons of "little green men" nonsense.
If TEPCO* ain't payin' Mochizuki for his blog, they should be outta pure gratitude for keeping their "plausible denial" BS plausible.

* The outfit that was running the Japanese nuclear industry down the toilet even before the GreatTohokuEarthquake... well before... at least, all the way back to doing the groundwork in preparation for building the FukushimaDaiichi powerplant.
good evening everyone.
G'night everyone. 10,000 buildings out of power in Nashville, Tennessee. EXCEPT ME!
Quoting Tygor:
Man it looks like this wave is going to go POOF again right off the coast.

That sounds like a good prediction.
But I can't prove it right, because all the Atlantic images have not been updated since 0310 UTC.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Last Year


Now



Going to be more of a home grown peak of the season coming up.

But I heard there was very high shear located near the red-shaded area.
Faster and faster we swing towards destiny. Destiny is normally described as a good thing.
Quoting aspectre:
1137 ktymisty: I get a lot of news about Fukushima from the Fukushima Dairy website. The chatbox is a bit depressing to 'listen to' but it's got some very good info.

The FukushimaDiary is garbage that detracts from serious reporting in the same way that the "flying saucer" folks buried good info about unidentified flying objects (much probably experimental military aircraft/missiles) under tons of "little green men" nonsense.
If TEPCO* ain't payin' Mochizuki for his blog, they should be outta pure gratitude for keeping their "plausible denial" BS plausible.

* The outfit that was running the Japanese nuclear industry down the toilet even before the GreatTohokuEarthquake... well before... at least, all the way back to doing the groundwork in preparation for building the FukushimaDaichi powerplant.


It's led me to interesting news, like the protests. It shows me via the chatbox what some people think. It has some interesting viewpoints.

I have scores of news sites I visit every week or so and each gives me something. I'm discriminating enough to see the dross for what it is.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
15:00 PM JST July 20 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.3N 123.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.5N 121.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel

Additional Information
====================

Tropical depression will accelerate for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will move northwest for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours
Hold Down the fort Night Crew!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Bobbyweather:

But I heard there was very high shear located near the red-shaded area.


In the short term that is correct, but it's very hard to predict wind shear further than 5-7 days out, but the TCHP will definitely be steaming this Aug/Sep.


Something north of the Islands?
Good Night Night Crew
1343. barbamz
Good morning over there. Visit the landslide blog to watch this:

20 July 2012: So how does a landslide generate a tsunami? An amazing video of a collapsing glacier. Landslides are a key mechanism through which localised tsunamis can be generated, but it is very difficult to actually visualise this process. An amazing video has just appeared on Youtube that shows this process very clearly. The video is actually of a collapsing glacier in Greenland, shot from a boat.

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

And don't miss the other videos and reports on this page from the last days, f.e. from a submarine landslide:

19 July 2012: Incredibly rare footage of a submarine landslide. Submarine landslides are poorly understood, in part because it is so difficult to capture them in real-time. This makes the following video, recorded at Cabo Sab Lucas, Baja California in Mexico, incredible valuable.
1344. barbamz
Not a good morning. Follow your news. Many people died.

July 20, 2012 4:54 AM PrintText Mass shooting at Batman premiere in Denver suburb suburb, Aurora, Colorado

Edit: 14 people dead; about 50 wounded

Live coverage:
http://www.9news.com/video/player_live_2.aspx
1345. Patrap
Insanity in a insane World.


Culture is NOT your friend.
Good morning... The 0z GFS has a depression/weak storm off the FL coast at 324 hours...

1347. Patrap
G' morn and Fantastic!

Im sure many will take it as Gospel.

: )
1348. Gearsts
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning... The 0z GFS has a depression/weak storm off the FL coast at 324 hours...

About time!
Quoting Patrap:
Insanity in a insane World.


Culture is NOT your friend.
Neither are heavily-armed psychos with smoke grenades and bulletproofs vests attending midnight screenings of popular movies.

Senseless. Senseless, senseless, senseless...
1350. Patrap
Culture, is not your friend. A movie Premiere about Violence and mayhem ?

Culture is crap today. Its artificial, and well, Live action came to visit in a Terribly horrible way. A new High for those 2nd amendment folks.


U betcha.

This took time to plan, and was executed in a calm way. How does a armed guy dressed in Black wearing a Flak Jacket even get in a Theater?

O snap, all the TSA are at the Airport.

ps. 17 folks were shot in a Alabama Bar a few days ago. Context is in the Mass Media Hands.
not.sure.what.to.say...gw.is.not.our.worst.problem
august.5-10..could.be.a.cyclone.off.the.fl.coast
Quoting islander101010:
not.sure.what.to.say...gw.is.not.our.worst.proble m


Yes it is.

If you think a few psychos at a movie are bad, wait until normal people are stressed out and making life/death decisions involving thier survival or yours.

I think there are about 20% of the population that are stable under stress, if that. Wait until stressed out religious people start making life or death decision based on what thier belief in God told them was right.

(I am not picking on religion or being an Atheist. I chose religion because it is one of the major moral frameworks, pick your own framework and substitute it if you please. The point was that any framework is warped under stress, not that religion is bad.... probably would have been easier to change the post at this point.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Neither are heavily-armed psychos with smoke grenades and bulletproofs vests attending midnight screenings of popular movies.

Senseless. Senseless, senseless, senseless...


was he trying to "mock/copy" Bane?
wheres.the.wind.at.the.british.open?
1357. ncstorm
Prayers sent to those in Colorado..this reminds me of Columbine..
1358. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
Prayers sent to those in Colorado..this reminds me of Columbine..
..ditto
1359. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Being its a 24year old White Male in custody for the shooting/massacre..well, that's gonna put a crimp in Michelle Bachmans er, Muslim Brotherhood theory I bet.
..if you listened to Lush Limbaugh a few days ago, he spent hours railing against that movie, guess someone took him seriously
1360. LargoFl
.................................7-day for tampa bay area..supposed to be even hotter today but the sunshine feels great
What is that for the 24th??
1362. ncstorm
Religion,Politics and GW have been tied to the shooting already on this blog..maybe who ever did the shooting was just mentally ill..just a guess on my part..
1363. LargoFl
..................nothing tropical on the atlantic side
1364. Patrap
Quoting LargoFl:
..if you listened to Lush Limbaugh a few days ago, he spent hours railing against that movie, guess someone took him seriously


One thing you can count on..I would never listen to RUSH.

There is NO gun control in America. Its a free market at a Gun Show, esp the parking lots. But note the wardrobe the shooter wore. The tactical Call of Duty posturing. Either he is a V-idiot, or a Veteran. My money is on the v-idiot, as a veteran shooter would have done more damage in a Tactical Way, This Guy was living and acting out a Vision in his corrupted mind.
Quoting Patrap:
Being its a 24year old White Male in custody for the shooting/massacre..well, that's gonna put a crimp in Michelle Bachmans er, Muslim Brotherhood theory I bet.
This is a terrible tragedy. Of course, after the shock and horror of the violence itself has gone away, we'll be left to deal with the aftermath: full-body searches and X-Ray scanners at the entrance to every movie house in the country (administered by the TSA--the "Theater Security Administration", no doubt), endless talk of how violence in movies is making people act out their fantasies, and, of course, a gun-buying frenzy as people again fear an assault on their God-given right to carry high-powered military rifles with gas-tipped slugs into movie theaters...
off.another.good.blog...Water temp is much warmer than what's suppossed to be right now in Peru, i hear 1, 1 and a half ° above normal...feels much more than that...i've never seen so many jellyfish in(and out of)the water ever, hundreds of dead birds(pelicans and seagulls)due to lack of food they say,
1367. VR46L
That Blob now in the Gulf sure has been quite the rainmaker over the last couple of days...

Quoting Patrap:
Being its a 24year old White Male in custody for the shooting/massacre..well, that's gonna put a crimp in Michelle Bachmans er, Muslim Brotherhood theory I bet.


Why do you have to put a political spin on a terrible tragedy as this is? What a sad day in the US as many that died are kids as young as 6 years old.
1370. Patrap
There are now 153 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
Please pray for those affected by this tragedy.
1372. Patrap



Yeah, right.



Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that for the 24th??


It's this tropical wave coming up from the SE Bahamas.
Quoting LargoFl:
..if you listened to Lush Limbaugh a few days ago, he spent hours railing against that movie, guess someone took him seriously


doubt it had anything to do with that. just saying

Quoting Neapolitan:
This is a terrible tragedy. Of course, after the shock and horror of the violence itself has gone away, we'll be left to deal with the aftermath: full-body searches and X-Ray scanners at the entrance to every movie house in the country (administered by the TSA--the "Theater Security Administration", no doubt), endless talk of how violence in movies is making people act out their fantasies, and, of course, a gun-buying frenzy as people again fear an assault on their God-given right to carry high-powered military rifles with gas-tipped slugs into movie theaters...



he didnt go through the front entrance, from what i can tell, he came in through the emergency exit.
They would somehow have to stop you from shooting your way in from those doors, because noone walks through the front entrance a movie theater with bulletproof vests and gas masks
And who said anything about taking military rifles into movie theaters in the debate on whether or not you should be allowed to have a gun?
What about if you wanted to go hunting?
1375. ncstorm
Quoting Patrap:


Because I dont kinder to Political BS from a Bat Crazy Congresswoman black Balling good Americans.

Anything else.

Your right about the 6year old.

But wrong on the facts, as a 2 year old is the youngest Victim.

And who takes a 2yr old and a 6yr old to a Midnight Premiere anyway?





You need to go back to bed..are you seriously blaming parents who lost their children
1376. Patrap


Quoting Patrap:


Because I dont kinder to Political BS from a Bat Crazy Congresswoman black Balling good Americans.

Anything else.






Pat, this situation has NO bearing on political BS. This is a tragedy that no could have ever imagined happening here in the US. I put myself in these parents shoes that dropped there kids off at the movie theater and now some of them dead so a political spin on this is not warrented. Sorry!
Quoting islander101010:
not.sure.what.to.say...gw.is.not.our.worst.proble m



I agree.
i.picked.adam.scott.in.a.small.pool...go.tiger.u.s. a
1380. barbamz
Cinema shooting:
12.18 University Hospital confirms that a three-month-old baby was injured.

When is the MJO ever going to come back to our side of the world.



SOI index is still in the positive range for the 13th day now.
Link
Quoting Patrap:


Well, I've been watching FOX since it broke as I got a call.

They went from a Possible Black suspect, to a Latino one, for the Scanner name being tossed around, then when a White Male was identified as the shooter, now they calling it, a "Crazy" person.

Yeah, I know the drill.


Well I don't watch FOX just for those reasons. That's the last place I would get my news from. Get your coffee and relax brother.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
When is the MJO ever going to come back to our side of the world.



SOI index is still in the positive range for the 13th day now.
Link


it will drop in a while, after the high passes tahiti.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
When is the MJO ever going to come back to our side of the world.



SOI index is still in the positive range for the 13th day now.
Link

It looks like towards early to mid August we may try to get into at least more of a neutral MJO phase, but by then it's possible to get development without the MJO.
Quoting LargoFl:
..if you listened to Lush Limbaugh a few days ago, he spent hours railing against that movie, guess someone took him seriously



That is not true. He didn't rail against the movie at all. He did talk about it, but not in the way you describe. I feel so sorry for the people involved in this tragedy. My 17 year old son went to a midnite premeire in Pensacola, I'm thankful it did not happen here.
1387. Patrap
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Well I don't watch FOX just for those reasons. That's the last place I would get my news from. Get your coffee and relax brother.


I dont watch it for the News, I watch it to note the Idiocy there.







Hey Pat:

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."
YES
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's this tropical wave coming up from the SE Bahamas.
1390. Patrap

U betcha.


: )





AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N44W 13N46W 9N47W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N37W 15N46W 10N50W 8N57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N70W 16N68W 12N66W...
FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD ISLA LA ORCHILA OF
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 15N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO BE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND
THEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS...AS IT MOVED ACROSS MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 94W AND COASTAL MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 17N
TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...10N27W AND 10N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N35W
TO 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It looks like towards early to mid August we may try to get into at least more of a neutral MJO phase, but by then it's possible to get development without the MJO.


Nothing on the 06z about what 00z had in GOM.
1393. Patrap
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Nothing on the 06z about what 00z had in GOM.

Yeah I saw that... I trust the 0z and 12z runs much more than the 6z and 18z runs though so maybe it'll be there again at 12z.
I wonder if this country will ever put there political backgrounds aside to come together as one when tragedies of this magnitude happen. It's just sad that people bring up a political debate when many kids as young as 6 got shot to death at the hands of a 24yr person.
As always there a lot of conflicting stories and confusion in the immediate aftermath of these types of events. First reports are often inaccurate.

Too much speculation.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah I saw that... I trust the 0z and 12z runs much more than the 6z and 18z runs though so maybe it'll be there again at 12z.


The 0Z run had a mischief in the GULF.

1398. Patrap




Quoting Patrap:


I dont watch it for the News, I watch it to note the Idiocy there.











The same reason I read the posts on this site.
1401. Patrap

What are you guys going to do when this entry dosen't allow comments come the 25th?



Maybe start practicing writing and developing your own.


That's how real bloggers do it.
1402. Patrap
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 124.6E TO 19.7N 119.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
124.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
125.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW IS FUELING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED
ON THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LLCC AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

My brief two cents is I feel upset at all the care-givers of all minor-age kids dragged to all the midnight showings last night. Their care-givers have more need for a Batman film than giving their kids sleep and rest and stability.
I wonder if this country will ever put there political backgrounds aside to come together as one when tragedies of this magnitude happen



This country will not come together anytime sonn. Too few people pulling the cart for far too many. Far too many people willing to let the gov "take" care of them. It's a paltry amount but some people settle too easily. I've worked all of my life. I believe if people are too comfortable in their poverty it saps their motivation to better themselves.
Quoting Patrap:

What are you guys going to do when this entry dosen't allow comments come the 25th?



Maybe start practicing writing and developing your own.


That's how real bloggers do it.



It's good we have you to show us the way Pat.
This is just so sad...everytime i see things like this i honestly fear for my 15 month year old daugther and what awaits her in this very scary world of ours. My thoughts and prayers go out to those envolved.
Quoting hurricane23:
This is just so sad...everytime i see things like this i honestly fear for my 15 month year daugther and what awaits her in this very scary world of ours. My thoughts and prayers go out to those envolved.


Mine too. My daughter is a month old today.
1409. ncstorm
I am going to log off for a while because I might say something that wont be acceptable for some folks on this blog but I do want to leave you with this..as a parent, I would never make another insensitive remark about another parent who just lost their child..I just hope you never have to experience the sick horror of what an individual does and you then be brought up on a pedestal and judge..
1410. Patrap
California sunlight, sweet Calcutta rain
Honolulu starbright - the song remains the same.

Good Morning as I am listening to Song Remains the Same by Zep at the moment........ :)

The Atlantic will awaken again sometime in August but I am pretty amazed at all the activity in the Pacific Basin...........Not surprised given the El Nino effects on that end; a small one or two degree temp anomaly towards the warmer end of the scale can make a huge difference in the tropical cyclone world if the other synoptic conditions are favorable.
The youngest victim is now confirmed at 3 months old. Sad!!!
1414. Patrap
WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.


As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.

For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
1415. beell
Quoting Patrap:

What are you guys going to do when this entry dosen't allow comments come the 25th?



Maybe start practicing writing and developing your own.


That's how real bloggers do it.


In what could be a much bigger and far more important story than another mass murder in Colorado...I'll ask THE question...

Got some details, Pat?
Quoting Patrap:

What are you guys going to do when this entry dosen't allow comments come the 25th?



Maybe start practicing writing and developing your own.


That's how real bloggers do it.


wait it wont allow comments on the 25th?
1417. Patrap

Yup...plenty.

been listening to the Aurora Scanners,

On the other, No comment
The active low pressure east of Tuguegarao city has developed into a tropical depression and was named "Ferdie". It is now moving towards extreme northern Luzon

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ferdie located at 18.4°N 123.0°E or 130 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
--------------

1. Isabela
2. Cagayan Including Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Island
4. Batanes Group of Island
5. Kalinga
6. Apayao
7. Abra
8. Ilocos
9. Norte
10. Ilocos Sur
11. Mt. Province

Additional Information
=======================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10–25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression “Ferdie” is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Depression “Ferdie” and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
1419. Jax82
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's ashame that the blog admins is letting this guy rant like this. Some people have lots of hate in them.


It's really easy, i just put them on ignore, and the blog then goes back to normal :) It is a tragedy what happened, and my prayers go out to those affected by it.
Quoting beell:


In what could be a much bigger and far more important story than another mass murder in Colorado...I'll ask THE question...

Got some details, Pat?


Hey good morning beell!
Quoting Jax82:


It's really easy, i just put them on ignore, and the blog then goes back to normal :) It is a tragedy what happened, and my prayers go out to those affected by it.


Hey buddy did you get any rain yesterday as it looked like a very strong line of storms rolled thru Jax yesterday?
I have two girls (ages 11 and 20) and while one is in college we never took our eyes off of them, they have not been allowed to watch/listen any inappropriate television or other media, and my oldest just finished her 2nd year at Yale. I try to stay on topic on here but will say this, the decline in American society over the last 20 years is correlated to the media blitz of "reality" TV which essentially glorifies disfunctional people on TV every day. No wonder our young generation, and a few older folks, have so little respect for people these days. It's all about turning it around for our kids and setting better examples for them; if you have children, turn off the television or keep it on PBS and other educational/history channels.

Socrates: "Anyone who has contemplated history has understood that the fate of empires depends upon the education of their youth"
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I have two girls (ages 11 and 20) and while one is in college we never took our eyes off of them, they have not been allowed to watch/listen any inappropriate television or other media, and my oldest just finished her 2nd year at Yale. I try to stay on topic on here but will say this, the decline in American society over the last 20 years is correlated to the media blitz of "reality" TV which essentially glorifies disfunctional people on TV every day. No wonder our young generation, and a few older folks, have so little respect for people these days. It's all about turning it around for our kids and setting better examples for them; if you have children, turn off the television or keep it on PBS and other educational/history channels.

Socrates: "Anyone who has contemplated history has understood that the fate of empires depends upon the education of their youth"


no hogans heroes?
1424. LargoFl
................................looks like its going to be an active storm day in the midlantic states
1425. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no hogans heroes?


I grew up on Hogan's Heros, Gilligans Island, and Star Trek.............Compare that to what is on television now. Case Closed........ :)
1427. ARiot
Quoting PensacolaDoug:This country will not come together anytime sonn. Too few people pulling the cart for far too many. Far too many people willing to let the gov "take" care of them. It's a paltry amount but some people settle too easily. I've worked all of my life. I believe if people are too comfortable in their poverty it saps their motivation to better themselves.


That's the most absurd thing I've read today, but it's early. It'll be hard to beat though.

Let's talk about the weather. I've got rain that was sorely needed. Trees are happy. Garden is happy. I'm happy. Here's to more rain for those who need it!



1428. Patrap
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Some models are hinting at possible all-time record high temperatures across the Mississippi Valley next week. Stay tuned for details...

In the meantime, I saw someone earlier commenting that a model is showing a swirl off the Florida coast--in two weeks. I think I'll hold off on boarding up just yet... ;-)
1430. beell
Good Morning, ST2K.
Houston Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)
Partly Cloudy
79°F
26°C
Humidity 88%
Wind Speed W 5 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1017.8 mb)
Dewpoint 75°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 83°F (28°C)
Last Update on 20 Jul 6:53 am CDT

robert.plant.looked.good.wanne.2011.....http://www. youtube.com/watch?v=CcYZlRWWxO0
1432. Patrap
43 years ago TODAY Apollo 11 landed THE EAGLE on the MOON at The Sea of Tranquility.


Weather was not a issue.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I grew up on Hogan's Heros, Gilligans Island, and Star Trek.............Compare that to what is on television now. Case Closed........ :)


i grew up on ..... you really wanna know?

and hogans heroes


in reality i dont watch too much TV, dont have time
Quoting islander101010:
robert.plant.looked.good.wanne.2011.....http://ww w. youtube.com/watch?v=CcYZlRWWxO0


Yup. I started playing guitar again this last decade, after being in the music business as a player and artist manager for 10 years back in the day, and Zep was a big influence. I am in the process of putting a band together again (in my old age) and just recently added "Ship of Fools" by Plant to the song list. The song is most appropriate for the times but I have a bigger problem at the moment; I can't find a singer who can pull it off like Plant.
That's the most absurd thing I've read today, but it's early. It'll be hard to beat though.



Almost half the people in this country don't pay any income tax and over 40% get some form of public assistance. Even the poverty stricken have flat screen tv's, air-conditioning a cell phone, car and an x-box. Too few pulling the cart for too many is an accurate statement. BTW I'm off to work now as somebody has to do it. Yet I'm absurd. Elaborate please.
1436. hydrus
I wanted to repost this. I am sure there are others here that feel the same way including meself..:) Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Quoting weathermanwannabe: Yes my old friend, we will know soon enough but I will stick it out to the end....This has been like family to me over the last 6 years starting with Dr. M and tons of other folks over the years (some whom no longer blog on here) who were more interested in teaching than arguing............. Oh Well....... :)




...Patrap....Indeed,

Change is a constant in linear time and within the Matterium,


Tomorrow will be a new Chance to make something WUnderful.


"If you cannot help, at least harm not the ones doing the chore"

Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end
Quoting hydrus:
I wanted to repost this. I am sure there are others here that feel the same way including meself..:) Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yes my old friend, we will know soon enough but I will stick it out to the end....This has been like family to me over the last 6 years starting with Dr. M and tons of other folks over the years (some whom no longer blog on here) who were more interested in teaching than arguing............. Oh Well....... :)




Indeed,

Change is a constant in linear time and within the Matterium,


Tomorrow will be a new Chance to make something WUnderful.


"If you cannot help, at least harm not the ones doing the chore"

Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end


does this have to do with comments ending on the 25th, or whatever patrap was talking about?
are they really ending the comments section?
1438. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


I dont watch it for the News, I watch it to note the Idiocy there.









i watch it because of the women on there.....
1439. Jax82
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey buddy did you get any rain yesterday as it looked like a very strong line of storms rolled thru Jax yesterday?


Yes, finally got my lawn watered lol. Now it can stay away for the weekend :)
1440. hydrus
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup. I started playing guitar again this last decade, after being in the music business as a player and artist manager for 10 years back in the day, and Zep was a big influence. I am in the process of putting a band together again (in my old age) and just recently added "Ship of Fools" by Plant to the song list. The song is most appropriate for the times but I have a bigger problem at the moment; I can't find a singer who can pull it off like Plant.
Good luck on that as Plant is one of the greatest vocalists ever..I love playing guitar , and Led Zepplin has been my favorite band since they first came out. Severe map for today...
1441. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


does this have to do with comments ending on the 25th, or whatever patrap was talking about?
are they really ending the comments section?
I have not read anything on the comments section being removed. If that is the case, we need to find another place for WU bloggers to post. I would miss everyone here terribly if that were the case.
1442. Patrap
Itsa, itsa..

Quoting Patrap:


I dont watch it for the News, I watch it to note the Idiocy there.









Quoting islander101010:
robert.plant.looked.good.wanne.2011.....http://ww w. youtube.com/watch?v=CcYZlRWWxO0
so.did.phil.lesh&weir.wanne.2012...http://www.you tube.com/watch?v=FMBnN0NouYU
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That's the most absurd thing I've read today, but it's early. It'll be hard to beat though.



Almost half the people in this country don't pay any income tax and over 40% get some form of public assistance. Even the poverty stricken have flat screen tv's, air-conditioning a cell phone, car and an x-box. Too few pulling the cart for too many is an accurate statement. BTW I'm off to work now as somebody has to do it. Yet I'm absurd. Elaborate please.


Quit spouting neo-con talking points. You are misrepresenting what is actually happening by stating exceptions to the norm. From my perspective as a sociologist, you really need to understand how social power and inequality work before going on about carts and pulling nonsense.
Quoting Naga5000:


Quit spouting neo-con talking points. You are misrepresenting what is actually happening by stating exceptions to the norm. From my perspective as a sociologist, you really need to understand how social power and inequality work before going on about carts and pulling nonsense.


EVERYBODY
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That's the most absurd thing I've read today, but it's early. It'll be hard to beat though.



Almost half the people in this country don't pay any income tax and over 40% get some form of public assistance. Even the poverty stricken have flat screen tv's, air-conditioning a cell phone, car and an x-box. Too few pulling the cart for too many is an accurate statement. BTW I'm off to work now as somebody has to do it. Yet I'm absurd. Elaborate please.


Government Assistance, Thank YOU!

1977-1985= US Coast Guard
1985-1989= Collage GI Bill
1989-2008= Merrill Lynch
2008-------= Merrill Lynch bought by Bank of America
Late 2011 = BOA sent my job and and many others in LSD and DRC to Indonesia
2012------- Unemployment and still looking for a job.

Worked all my life. Your comment is ABSURBED!
What is it exactly that I misrepresented?
1449. Patrap
Finally,

Something Spinning.


An open a window and let some of the Testosterone out..

Phew..

Lordy,




1450. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
43 years ago TODAY Apollo 11 landed THE EAGLE on the MOON at The Sea of Tranquility.


Weather was not a issue.


Yes..If I ever see a watch box on the Moon, I will know my plants more than exceeded my standards of quality..:)
1451. yoboi
when the USA astronauts board a russian space ship for flight, is that considered outsourcing????
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What is it exactly that I misrepresented?


Note my user name.
I do not mean to offend, I understand that I am somewhat different.
This is what I UNDERSTOOD from what you said, forgive if I understood wrong.

Anyone getting government assistance at any time is a dead beat?
Quoting Patrap:
Itsa, itsa..



It's not connected to a front...
1454. CJ5
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What is it exactly that I misrepresented?


Nothing. You stated facts, you didn't misrepresent anything. The only thing you didn't do is give excuses for those facts.
Quoting Patrap:
Finally,

Something Spinning.


An open a window and let some of the Testosterone out..

Phew..

Lordy,





Is it OK if I take that spin from you? You didn't need it or anything...
1456. hydrus
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I have two girls (ages 11 and 20) and while one is in college we never took our eyes off of them, they have not been allowed to watch/listen any inappropriate television or other media, and my oldest just finished her 2nd year at Yale. I try to stay on topic on here but will say this, the decline in American society over the last 20 years is correlated to the media blitz of "reality" TV which essentially glorifies disfunctional people on TV every day. No wonder our young generation, and a few older folks, have so little respect for people these days. It's all about turning it around for our kids and setting better examples for them; if you have children, turn off the television or keep it on PBS and other educational/history channels.

Socrates: "Anyone who has contemplated history has understood that the fate of empires depends upon the education of their youth"
great post..Reality t.v. is disgusting. 30 seconds of it and i,m nauseated...Somebody said this is the " me era " and it is a competition for who has the most inflated ego..

guess nobodys talking about this wave...
it has a little spin to it if you noticed
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What is it exactly that I misrepresented?


You made an over reaching generalization about a group of people based on exceptions. The poor are not leaches. They don't all have flat screen tv's, air conditioning, etc. I would suggest reading "Amazing Grace" by Jonathan Kozol to get a good look at what poor neighborhoods are actually like.

For example here in Florida the average welfare payment is $73.41 per month. That's not flat screen tv money any way you slice it. 40% not paying any income taxes is accurate, but only because they aren't making enough money after deductions to need to pay, yet they still pay payroll and sales taxes, and in many cases, state and local taxes as well. You are misrepresenting data.
1461. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Certainly not! It is true however that there is rampant abuse of public assistance.
And it has been going on way too long.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some models are hinting at possible all-time record high temperatures across the Mississippi Valley next week. Stay tuned for details...

In the meantime, I saw someone earlier commenting that a model is showing a swirl off the Florida coast--in two weeks. I think I'll hold off on boarding up just yet... ;-)


Our local NWS was saying the same thing with highs anywhere from 100-110 degrees from KC to Indy and that was just the EURO. MEX was even higher. Heat Indexes could be over 120 in spots.

Today could be my first day below 90 in a streak of 24 days where I have seen 90 plus, with 7 of those days being over 100, and several more falling just shy of a hundred, and its only July.

Unfortunately I still believe we are far from seeing the worst of this drought, it could be one of the worst of all time. I believe by the time September rolls around we could be looking at D-3 and D-4 conditions stretching from Denver to Detroit ranging from the Canadian border down into the heart of Texas. Southeast may be the only spot in the US that escapes the worst of this disaster.
1464. yoboi
Quoting greentortuloni:


Yes it is.

If you think a few psychos at a movie are bad, wait until normal people are stressed out and making life/death decisions involving thier survival or yours.

I think there are about 20% of the population that are stable under stress, if that. Wait until stressed out religious people start making life or death decision based on what thier belief in God told them was right.

(I am not picking on religion or being an Atheist. I chose religion because it is one of the major moral frameworks, pick your own framework and substitute it if you please. The point was that any framework is warped under stress, not that religion is bad.... probably would have been easier to change the post at this point.)


not buying your kool-aid
Quoting CJ5:


Yes and it falls at the feet of the Outsourcer In Chief. lol


Would that be Bush who was the one ending the shuttle?
1466. barbamz
Quoting aspectre:
NASA captures alien spaceship hovering over the aurora borealis


www.spaceweather.com has more on this incredible pic:

Astronaut Joe Acaba photographed these Southern Lights from the International Space Station on Saturday, July 14th. He was 400 km above Earth's surface, immersed in the fringes of the auroras themselves.

"It was absolutely incredible," says Acaba. "I was working out and in between sets I noticed that we were heading south during a night pass. So I decided my workout could be postponed for a few minutes and I turned out all of the lights in Node 3. Within a couple of minutes, I could not believe what I was seeing. I enjoyed the show for a few minutes [then alerted my crewmates to look].. Even Gennady, with all of his time on orbit, was amazed. Of course I took some obligatory pictures, but then I just sat in the dark, in the peace and quiet of this incredible man made, orbiting laboratory and just looked out the window in awe. What a truly magnificent planet we live on and solar system we live in."

Edit to add a little good news on Denver:
14.40 (7.40) Reports that the three-month-old-baby wounded in the attack has been released from hospital.



1467. pcola57
Quoting Patrap:

What are you guys going to do when this entry dosen't allow comments come the 25th?



Maybe start practicing writing and developing your own.


That's how real bloggers do it.


Morning Pat...saw the news..
makes me want to throw up..
please tell me about the stopping of posting on the 25th?
Is that a reality?
1468. dabirds
It is called the International Space Station, did you complain when the shuttles were taking up the cosmonauts, europeans, japanese, etc. Already had cargo delivered by an american private rocket.

I'm afraid you may be correct ILwthr. Unless a big pattern change occurs. How about a big trop depression recurving thru the midwest.
1469. Patrap
Quoting pcola57:


Morning Pat...saw the news..
makes me want to throw up..
please tell me about the stopping of posting on the 25th?
Is that a reality?


G' morn to you,

Its a possibility and was mentioned on the Day we got the news. That's the July 2nd entry around the first 5 pages if someone wants to look.

1470. pcola57
Quoting Patrap:


G' morn to you,

Its a possibility and was mentioned on the Day we got the news. That's the July 2nd entry around the first 5 pages if someone wants to look.



TY...will do..
Terrible news coming from Colorado this morning... prayers for the victims and their families.

BTW, what do you mean no more comments on this blog after the 25th?

EDIT: just saw the new posts.
Quoting dabirds:


I'm afraid you may be correct ILwthr. Unless a big pattern change occurs. How about a big trop depression recurving thru the midwest.


It's bad that is for sure. I don't think a tropical system would make it up the Mississippi that far before it would "Don" out. It could take two or three of them just to moisten up the environment enough so that the next system could make it a little farther north before the dry air kills it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Patrap:

What are you guys going to do when this entry dosen't allow comments come the 25th?



Maybe start practicing writing and developing your own.


That's how real bloggers do it.


Given your commenting frequency (Comments: 107122) on this site, it will no doubt represent a change for you as well.
I learn alot from Dr. Masters Blog, but I check in every day for the comments, that are up to date, all the time.
And yes, I learn important news topics from the comments too. If they cut the comments, this blog won't be worth checking every day since it will be dead between postings. Hope that isn't true.
1476. dabirds
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It's bad that is for sure. I don't think a tropical system would make it up the Mississippi that far before it would "Don" out. It could take two or three of them just to moisten up the environment enough so that the next system could make it a little farther north before the dry air kills it.
You're probably correct, unfortunately. I had a Don like experience yesterday, I-55 was our "coast".
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What is it exactly that I misrepresented?


You stated that half of all Americans pay no income tax, misrepresenting this fact as if this is due to a handout culture... when this half is almost entirely due to senior citizens, the truly poor and unemployed, and children... and given a mature, demographically healthy first world country, you would expect about half of all Americans to fall into those categories, ideally with fewer poor. Trying to squeeze the poor is a truly futile endeavor; you'll waste more money trying to make them pay out their $50 or whatever their ultimate tax burden is than it is worth, and in the meantime inflict further pain on them. I mean, we could also tax senior citizens on their social security and add yet more bureaucracy to the process, but for what purpose? What possible social function would that serve? As for children, if you'd like, we can try to impose a 5% income tax or whatever on lemonade stand sales; have fun explaining to the soccer moms why Breanna is being audited to find out if she owes $2 or $3 for her proto-capitalist endeavors.

Of course, the real kicker is that in truth, in almost every state, the poor and middle class have a much more onerous tax burden than the rich. It isn't even close.

Now, for the forty percent of Americans who receive some form of public assistance. Let's go on friendly ground for you; the Heritage Foundation. They, too, ignore climate science and are ideologically right wing, and they're the source of the original claim. Would it surprise you to note that even they admit that most of these unproductive, handout-seeking welfare leeches... are in fact people on Medicare, Medicaid, SCHIP, Social Security, food stamps, and other such literally lifesaving programs? That's not creating a culture of dependency; that's ensuring that seniors and the poor can eat and live. The hilarious part is that the Heritage Foundation wants to count Pell Grants - the grants that have made it at all possible for the poor to go to school - as something that induces dependency instead of something that breaks the cycle of poverty... but sure, whatever floats your boat.

So, there are your misrepresentations.
Quoting hydrus:
great post..Reality t.v. is disgusting. 30 seconds of it and i,m nauseated...Somebody said this is the " me era " and it is a competition for who has the most inflated ego..

Suspect it's linked to the brilliant "educational" scheme of severing "self-esteem" from personal achievement.

Ignorant little narcissists all over the place, demanding their entitlements, benefits, whatever they feel entitled to. Nice work, NEA members too dumb or lazy to teach maths, science and English at school; much better to have focused for 30+ years on "self-esteem" rather than personal achievement. Thanks
Quoting Autistic2:


Government Assistance, Thank YOU!

1977-1985= US Coast Guard
1985-1989= Collage GI Bill
1989-2008= Merrill Lynch
2008-------= Merrill Lynch bought by Bank of America
Late 2011 = BOA sent my job and and many others in LSD and DRC to Indonesia
2012------- Unemployment and still looking for a job.

Worked all my life. Your comment is ABSURBED!
....+1,000...how many those that "dont pay any taxes" are unemployed,Children and elderly,what a BS line!
1480. dabirds
Right on the head Captain, great post. Income taxes are nothing compared to the sales, gas, property, and assorted other taxes the less wealthy pay daily. Also excellent point on them counting Pell Grants as assistance - do they complain about the tax "assistance" corporations get.