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Record storm surges hit Mid-Atlantic coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:22 PM GMT on November 13, 2009

Record storm surges have caused major flooding along the North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware coasts over the past 24 hours, thanks to the powerful winds of a slow-moving Nor'easter energized by the remains of Hurricane Ida. Norfolk, Virginia, suffered its highest storm surge on record last night, when a surge of 5.96 feet hit the Sewells Point tide station. The previous record was 5.62' during Hurricane Isabel of 2003, with the Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane of 1933 close behind at 5.61'. Last night's peak surge did not hit at high tide, and the storm tide--the combination of surge plus the tide--peaked at 7.74' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW), slightly below the 7.89' storm tide of Hurricane Isabel.


Figure 1. Rain gauge-measured precipitation from Ida-extratropical for the 24 hours ending at 7 am EST this morning. The storm dumped copious amounts of rain over a wide swath of coast. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

The highest storm surges at Sewell's Point tide gauge in Norfolk, Virginia since 1927:

5.96' Nov 2009 Ida-extratropical
5.62' Sep 2003 Hurricane Isabel
5.61' Aug 1933 Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane
4.73' Sep 1933 Hurricane 13, Cat 1)
4.66' Mar 1962 Ash Wednesday Nor'easter
4.05' Sep 1936 (Hurricane 13, Cat 2)

Top storm tides in Norfolk history:

1933 hurricane (Aug 23rd 1933)..............8.9 feet MLLW
April 11th 1956 Nor'easter..................8.0 feet MLLW
Hurricane Isabel (Sep 18th 2003)............7.9 feet MLLW
Ida-extratropical (Nov 12th 2009)...........7.8 feet MLLW
Ash Wednesday storm (Mar 7th 1962)..........7.8 feet MLLW

Serious coastal flooding is occurring from northern North Carolina to the Delaware/New Jersey border, with record high storm surges recorded at many locations. The storm surge at Lewes Point, Delaware at 9:48 pm EST last night reached 4.63 feet, beating the record high of 4.17' set during the January 4, 1992 Nor'easter. Tide records go back to 1919 at Lewes Point. The highest surge at any of the NOAA-maintained tide gauges from Ida-extratropical was 6.74' at 9:24 pm EST at Money Point, Virginia, located on an inlet about five miles south of downtown Norfolk.

Ida-extratropical also brought hurricane-force wind gusts to the Virginia coast yesterday, with a gust of 75 mph recorded at the Oceana NAS. The Norfolk airport recorded sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 70 mph, at the height of the Nor'easter last night. Heavy rains of 6 - 11 inches since Tuesday have created flooding on most of the the rivers along the entire North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland coasts. Ida-extratropical is slowly weakening and pulling away to the northeast, and the rains have ended along most of the coast, though. Virginia has now seen its highest storm surges, but this afternoon's high tide cycle is likely to bring another round of record or near-record storm tides to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and extreme southern New Jersey. This afternoon's high tide is forecast to bring a storm tide of 7.6' to Atlantic City, NJ, which would be the 10th highest tide there since 1911, but well short of the record 8.98' storm tide during the December, 1992 Nor'easter. By Saturday, Ida-extratropical will be on its way out to sea, and the storm surges and rains will finally abate.


Figure 2. Predicted storm tide (height above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide measured in a full 19-year natural tidal cycle, black line) for Lewes, Delaware (at the mouth of Delaware Bay), as predicted by the GFS model. A storm tide of 8.0 feet is forecast this afternoon during the high tide. For a full description of this plot, see the NOAA Extratropical Surge web site.


Figure 3. Tide gauge trace from the Sewell's Point gauge in Norfolk, VA, shows a storm surge of nearly 6 feet (green line) hit at 8:30 pm EST, with a maximum storm tide of 7.8 feet above MLLW occurring at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Storm surges and sea level rise
The storm surge flooding in the Norfolk area was exacerbated by the fact that sea level has risen and the land has subsided significantly over the past century. Over the past 60 years, absolute sea level along the coast of Virginia has risen by about 2.6 mm/year. However, the relative sea level has risen by 4.44 mm/year since 1927 (Figure 4), meaning that the land has sunk by about 1.84 mm/year. The net result is that the ocean is now about 1.16 feet higher at Norfolk than it was in 1927. The Norfolk tide gauge shows the highest rate of relative sea level rise of any gauge on the U.S. East Coast (though relative sea level rise is much higher along the Gulf Coast, with rises near 3 feet/century at New Orleans). Thus, today's 5+ foot storm surge brought water more than a foot higher in Norfolk than the 5+ foot storm surge of the 1933 hurricane. Storm surge damages will steadily increase along the entire coast this century as sea level rise accelerates and coastal development continues. It is urgent that government take action in coming years to limit development in vulnerable coastal regions. The ocean is going flood our sand castles that we are building in harm's way, at an ever increasing rate.


Figure 4. Monthly mean sea level at the Sewells Point, VA tide gauge in Norfolk, without the regular seasonal fluctuations due to coastal ocean temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents. The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval. Relative sea level has increased by 1.16 feet since 1927, the highest rate of rise on the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Portlight responding to the flooding in Virginia
Portlight.org is deploying up to 3 self-sufficient mobile kitchens capable of feeding over 2000 people a day to the Virginia coast. They will be providing meals for first responders, volunteers, and, of course, affected residents. Donations are welcome--visit the portlight blog to learn more and make a PayPal donation. Thanks!

Take action: sign the QuikSCAT letter
The QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999, provides crucial measurements of surface wind speed and direction over Earth's oceans twice per day. Forecasters world-wide have come to rely on data from QuikSCAT to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. QuikSCAT's antenna is expected to fail within the next six months, according to engineers at NASA/JPL, and QuikSCAT data has already been removed from our global weather forecast models, due to concerns about data reliability.

There exists a narrow window of opportunity in the next few days to get the wheels in motion to launch a QuikSCAT replacement instrument on a Japanese satellite in 2015. The funding for this must start within the next budget cycle, and there is currently no funding in place for a replacement QuikSCAT. If we miss this this opportunity, it may be ten years or more before a QuikSCAT replacement can be launched. To this end, I urge all of you to sign the QuikSCAT funding letter being presented to John Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

The letter is at: http://coaps.fsu.edu/scatterometry/statement/.

If you agree with the letter, please sign it (via the web site) as soon as possible: there is a very small window of opportunity to influence the next budget cycle, with this window closing within a few days.

Note that to validate your signature you must type the validation code in the bottom box. This code is the word that appears after 'code =', then click on the sign button.

For more information on QuikSCAT, see my post, The case for a new QuikSCAT satellite.


Figure 5. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.

Expect a new blog until Monday, when I'll discuss the outlook for the remainder of hurricane season. It is finally over?

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So here it is.
Opps
Quoting tornadodude:


Nice storm, what is it?
Quoting Grothar:


Nice storm, what is it?


TC Anja. Really is beautiful. Forecasted to become a Category one before recurving and weakening.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


TC Anja. Really is beautiful. Forecasted to become a Category one before recurving and weakening.


Indian Ocean?


Next weekend GFS

not even funny...
Grother, yes Moderate Tropical Storm Anja (04-20092010) in the south west indian ocean
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Grother, yes Moderate Tropical Storm Anja (04-20092010) in the south west indian ocean


Hey, Hades, where is everyone?
hello

no idea it has been very quiet here today
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Hades, where is everyone?
I am here too but just lurking. Hi Grothar and Hades.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am here too but just lurking. Hi Grothar and Hades.


I guess everyone is just lurking. How are you CI?
Quoting Grothar:


I guess everyone is just lurking. How are you CI?
Not bad. We actually had some cool weather here last night. It got down to 67 and supposed to go down tonight again.
Anyone seen 2012 yet?
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone seen 2012 yet?
It hasn't come here yet.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not bad. We actually had some cool weather here last night. It got down to 67 and supposed to go down tonight again.


Little chilly for the Islands isn't it? It has been the same here in Lauderdale. Really great day. Hardly a breeze.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It hasn't come here yet.


Passed by the theater earlier. Lines all around. I think people enjoy disasters.
Quoting Grothar:


Little chilly for the Islands isn't it? It has been the same here in Lauderdale. Really great day. Hardly a breeze.
The weather is great. Current temperature is 75 and winds about 15 mph.
It doesn't last though. Soon be hot again.
Quoting Grothar:


Passed by the theater earlier. Lines all around. I think people enjoy disasters.
It seems like it. Not something I would like to contemplate.
Today is the first day of our annual festival "Pirates Week" so there's not many people around.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It seems like it. Not something I would like to contemplate.


It was a very pleasant blog last night. We had a lot of laughs and no one was banned. Probably the most enjoyable in a long time. We even got in some weather talk!!!
523. JLPR
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone seen 2012 yet?


that one had very cool trailers
got to see it, now I only need to think when im going =P

Quoting Grothar:


Passed by the theater earlier. Lines all around. I think people enjoy disasters.


yep it seems we like explosions and disasters in movies, not sure why XD
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Today is the first day of our annual festival "Pirates Week" so there's not many people around.


Is that the one where they do like a fake invasion. Friends told me about. They said the food was incredible. Never ate so much in their lives. I like hot, spicy food myself.
Quoting JLPR:


that one had very cool trailers
got to see it, now I only need to think when im going =P



yep it seems we like explosions and disasters in movies, not sure why XD


Studies have been done on that. Watching disasters releases endorphines and other chemicals in the body and stimulates them, then the body crashes from the high and becomes relaxed. Humans are very visual creatures.
Quoting Grothar:


Is that the one where they do like a fake invasion. Friends told me about. They said the food was incredible. Never ate so much in their lives. I like hot, spicy food myself.
Yes, that's it. They have a Pirates Landing and a float parade. After that is a street dance. Each day of the week is a different Heritage Day in each district with demonstrations of "yesteryear" and local food and dancing. It ends next Saturday with a final street dance.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, that's it. They have a Pirates Landing and a float parade. After that is a street dance. Each day of the week is a different Heritage Day in each district with demonstrations of "yesteryear" and local food and dancing. It ends next Saturday with a final street dance.


Sounds interesting. I may have to go sometime. Fantasy Fest in the Florida keys is a little over the top for me. I enjoy observing other cultures. Having lived in so many different places, one becomes accustomed to enjoy what others have to offer as entertainment.
Quoting Grothar:


Sounds interesting. I may have to go sometime. Fantasy Fest in the Florida keys is a little over the top for me. I enjoy observing other cultures. Having lived in so many different places, one becomes accustomed to enjoy what others have to offer as entertainment.
It's very nice but after going a couple dozen years it gets tiring. I don't go anymore but my children and grandchildren go.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Next weekend GFS

not even funny...

I pray and hope that does NOT take place! I know you have hundreds of millions in damage from 3 days of 45-50MPH winds gusting to 65-75 MPH, 5 FT above normal tides and almost 11 inches of rain in 3 days.

I am originally from West Hempstead, Long Island, in S Central Nassau Co. I have seen my share of Nor'Easters growing up in the 60's and 70's. These 2 Nor'Easters you've experienced this year were remnants of either TS Ida or the ALMOST STS you experienced in 9-09.

Enough is enough already, and the winter storm season is yet to come for both the Eastern Seaboard and the West Coast.
Good evening all
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all
Good evening, how are you feeling ? Heard you were sick .
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good evening, how are you feeling ? Heard you were sick .


I'm still a little shaken but not stirred. The blog looks so unfamiliar.
Quoting Weather456:


I'm still a little shaken but not stirred. The blog looks so unfamiliar.
Nothing much going on now that Ida has moved out.
Good evening!!!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nothing much going on now that Ida has moved out.


I realized that. I have to go back and look for information on where she made landfall.

I did see the news footages over the past week. She really turned out to be a dozy.
Quoting Weather456:


I'm still a little shaken but not stirred. The blog looks so unfamiliar.

Hope you feel better soon.
First named storm of the Southern Hemisphere cyclone season

Moderate TC Anja

Quoting Weather456:


I realized that. I have to go back and look for information on where she made landfall.

I did see the news footages over the past week. She really turned out to be a dozy.
She caused some terrible problems. It's sad.
Grothar, if you're still in here...& others on last night -- I admit I was lurking; couldn't remember the name of one of my favorite Chrismukkah movies so I didn't chime in. Besides, it too was darn sweet watching all the male bonding (hehe).

I have too many faves. These all involve snow or the environment in some fashion so I'm on topic, Admin. (hope).

-- A Christmas Story -- the one about the little boy who wanted the BB gun. Hilarious.

-- Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer -- the animated one w/the Burl Ives songs. (I also have an OLD record with Songs of Israel by Burl Ives, hah, top that one, WUnderland.)

-- The Nutcracker Suite (the ballet, of course.)

-- AND, because it's funny as heck AND because I produced a program with the choreographer for the Amembassy Antananarivo,

-- The Hard Nut, music by Tchaikovsy, choreography Mark Morris

Link

Phew, all that so I could do a little PR for Mark Morris for free, and he'll never know!

Okay, now I'm on ignore for most of the bloggers, esp. the ones w/ testosterone...



Wow! So little posts!

When Ida dissipated, she really killed off the blog.
Didn't realize 456 was back on; sorry, we've been digressing a LOT since you've not been here to keep us on track.

So glad you're a bit better. I just had a touch of a disgusting flu and was out of it for a couple-three days.

Take care and I'll go back to lurking because a lot of people will be glad you're back to discuss serious weather -- and there sure has been some. Decimated some of my favorite beaches :(
542. BDAwx
Got some rain from outer bands of this storm in western Bermuda with some flooding this afternoon...
Quoting BDAwx:
Got some rain from outer bands of this storm in western Bermuda with some flooding this afternoon...
Hope it doesn't get too bad. Do you have mountains there ?
6.1-magnitude quake rattles northern Argentina
PRESSTV
Sat, 14 Nov 2009 21:33:10 GMT

A 6.1-magnitude earthquake has struck northern Argentina near its borders with Chile and Bolivia.

There were no immediate reports of any casualties or damage from the quake that rattled part of the Andes mountainous region at 4:44 p.m. local time (1944 GMT), some 190 kilometers (120 miles) northwest of San Salvador de Jujuy and 240 km (150 miles) southwest of Tarija, Bolivia at a depth of 141 km (88 miles), the US Geological Survey said in a preliminary report.

On Friday, two quakes hit the same region, one a 6.5-magnitude earthquake with an epicenter near the Chile-Peru border, and another measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale that struck several hundred kilometers to the north of Argentina's Jujuy province.
Hmmmmmm
CMC is saying it might not be over yet.
546. BDAwx
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hope it doesn't get too bad. Do you have mountains there ?


Nope no mountains, just really steep hills, its been wet recently and the drainage system isn't that great to begin with, and theres a canal thats really just a fancy drainage ditch below sealevel, that floods in heavy rains, the whole length of it, especially at high tide. It runs through a main route into Hamilton.(the capitol)
Quoting BDAwx:


Nope no mountains, just really steep hills, its been wet recently and the drainage system isn't that great to begin with, and theres a canal thats really just a fancy drainage ditch below sealevel, that floods in heavy rains, the whole length of it, especially at high tide. It runs through a main route into Hamilton.(the capitol)
Hope everything is okay. For such a "slow" hurricane season it sure has been a mess for some people.
548. BDAwx
its quite interesting because there is only one band and it's really thin - about 2-3 miles west to east but it extends 200miles north and south and its parked over 2 parishes but with some wobbles giving some rain to the neighboring two parishes... but there are other showers around in the marine area...
rainfall rates in this band are 2-3 inches an hour so...

Bermuda Radar

good evening ya'll.

just a quick review back...cmc and gfs...are they hinting at another low'easter coming offa the tail end of a front later this week?

affecting the same general area as Nor'Ida?

is that what ya'll are talkin' about?
What's the latest outlook for ex-Ida's remnant swirl? Some were saying it would head south-east and possibly reform into some type of entity?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What's the latest outlook for ex-Ida's remnant swirl? Some were saying it would head south-east and possibly reform into some type of entity?


Entity?? like in possessed?



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Tropical Cyclones: Physics, Energetics and Mechanics, Posted by: Weather456, 11:24 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
10-day outlook seems pretty seasonable for West Palm Beach:

Nov 14 Tonight
Mostly clear. Low 62F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 15 Tomorrow
Plentiful sunshine. High around 80F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph.
Nov 15 Tomorrow night
A mostly clear sky. Low 64F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 16 Monday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 17 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 18 Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 19 Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 20 Friday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 21 Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 22 Sunday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 23 Monday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Wow...your'e quick on the draw Orca!
a what what what, would you mind telling me what you mean Orca. I need no more problems with the weather, and would love to have some more cold fronts with NO TROPICAL WEATHER!!!! Sorry for the Caps.
This entire season has been strange, so another weird acting system would not be a big thing for any of us.
The question that I have, what is the forecast for Steering Currents, Sea Surface Temps or SST's for those of us not with Met terms, and Low vs High pressure systems.
Yes to the cold fronts! Being a native-born Floridian, I love it when it gets cold. If I remember correctly from previous posts, it could be a cooler than normal winter season for Florida.
559. beell
Quoting aquak9:
good evening ya'll.

just a quick review back...cmc and gfs...are they hinting at another low'easter coming offa the tail end of a front later this week?

affecting the same general area as Nor'Ida?

is that what ya'll are talkin' about?


Not so much at the tail end of a front-more like at the tail end of a deep trough tied to a low in the far northern ATL. Pick your steering. Ridge weakness or Ridging?. Would still have to get something to persist at the surface untill then. ADDED: The something would be a weakening surface expression of the closed-off upper low associated with the last Nor'easter. Which we now affectionately refer to as "the remains of Ida".

18Z MSLP GFS at 90 hrs


12Z MSLP CMC at 96 hrs


12Z MSLP NOGAPS at 96 hrrs
560. BDAwx
has there ever been two us landfalls from separate systems in november before?
561. LLJF
later this week?

Yes...much later.

I hope its over...and the last thing we need is an "entity".


New word of the Day :)
563. P451
Given what an amazing system IDA turned out to be I figured I would go back through the blog archives and pull together all the images and thoughts I had on the system.

I put them together into a blog entry.

I put together as much as I could find and remember putting in the blog (within reason, I left a number of images out for it would become too big).

564. LLJF
Time for another global warming/cooling blog or two Dr.
The Tropical Atlantic season is finished!

Well, its looks like the blog has come to life a little and I mean a little. How is everyone?
Oh, I forgot. Anything new in the tropics?
Quoting LLJF:
Time for another global warming/cooling blog or two Dr.
The Tropical Atlantic season is finished!

and how are you good old bud sir
Very nice P451... a lot of work went into that. Congrats!
Hi Grothar....hope you had a great day! Weather great today. Just right.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yes to the cold fronts! Being a native-born Floridian, I love it when it gets cold. If I remember correctly from previous posts, it could be a cooler than normal winter season for Florida.


I don't really like it. It causes the air to be too dry, which enhances the chance of getting the flu or common cold...


The CMC has been hinting that Ex-IDA may convert into a possible tropical cyclone. Due to fact that it is the only model showing this,it should not be taken seriously.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: Very nice P451... a lot of work went into that. Congrats!

I agree. Thanks for the retrospective on a storm that had just about everything.
571. P451
Quoting futuremet:


I don't really like it. It causes the air to be too dry, which enhances the chance of getting the flu or common cold...


The CMC has been hinting that Ex-IDA may convert into a possible tropical cyclone. Due to fact that it is the only model showing this,it should not be taken seriously.


Yeah, I don't know. I'd give it 30% chance at most of making the loop and maybe as low as 5% chance at redevelopment into something significant after the fact.

We'll see.

12 hr WV Loop

572. P451
Thanks everyone.
Geoff howabout them Knights today.....daughter is partying like .....its homecoming weekend also..
Congrats on the victory. How about tomorrow? Fins Vs. Bucs!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Grothar....hope you had a great day! Weather great today. Just right.


Great day, thanks. Weather was perfect. I see we are all still here yet! Lot of laughs last night. P451 has put some good images on ex-Ida.
You can tell the hurricane season is pretty much over when the radio stations start playing 24-hour a day Christmas music.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Congrats on the victory. How about tomorrow? Fins Vs. Bucs!


OUCH i would rather talk about a cane hitting the WEST Palm Beach area......LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Great day, thanks. Weather was perfect. I see we are all still here yet! Lot of laughs last night. P451 has put some good images on ex-Ida.


Ya P451 did an incredible job putting that together....nice piece of work.
It was nice last night. I tried at the beginning to stay on weather topics...but almost no one responded. Then we went off on our own little tirade and had a good time. Thanks to Admin. for being tolerant.
Quoting TampaSpin:


OUCH i would rather talk about a cane hitting the WEST Palm Beach area......LOL


Lol...don't you know? We borrowed the shower-curtain deflector from Miami-Dade!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANJA (04-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 15 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM, Moderate Tropical Storm Anja (985 hPa) located at 12.9S 70.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-force winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Near Gale-force winds
======================
within the center extending up to 180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 70.3E - 60 kts (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.6S 69.4E - 70 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.5S 66.7E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.3S 65.2E - 60 kts (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================

The system is deepening rapidly and is quasi-stationary. The last animated satellite imagery shows an eye not yet well defined.

Environmental conditions remains very favorable with a good equatorward inflow, a very good polar inflow thanks to the subtropical high pressures center moving just south of the system. The system is now under a upper level ridge, with two efficient upper level outflow equatorwards and polewards. Environmental conditions are expected to remain very favorable within the next 48 hours.. then monsoon and trade flows are expected to weaken, and sea surface temperatures become cooler, limitiing intensification.

This system is expected to track slowly generally west southwest within the next 24 hours, and then to accelerate southwestward, its steering flow is a mid latitude ridge in its south that will move in its east progressively

The next Tropical Cyclone Advisory will be issued at around 06:30 AM UTC
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Congrats on the victory. How about tomorrow? Fins Vs. Bucs!


I'm still trying to forget the Giant's loss to San Diego by 1 point. 1 POINT!! It is good this is a BYE week for them. Couldn't take another loss this close. OH, I forgot. I hope the weather is good on their game with Denver.
Watching Bill Murray's "Scrooged" on DVR. Another good holiday movie.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Watching Bill Murray's "Scrooged" on DVR. Another good holiday movie.


Got a kick out of Carol Kane punching the heck out of him. There was a lot of snow in that movie, too, Right Geoff???
Anja has a great looking eye!


Navy has the pressure down to 956mb.

You were reading my mind Grothar. Was going to add a weather reference to the post. Yes...a lot of snow in the movie! And yes, the Carol Kane part is one of the funniest in the movie. A lot of Three Stooges pranks in that scene.
This CMC Loop sure is interesting...TOLD ya Geoff...you might owe me a Ham.
Quoting Ameister12:
Anja has a great looking eye!


Navy has the pressure down to 956mb.



Looks like a backwards image. Only kidding!! Try and explain this one to the Flatearthers.
ya Anja is bombing a little



That is one big high for November in that position.
Saw that earlier Tim and was hoping you forgot!
can't wait to see Madagascar says in their advisory
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
can't wait to see Madagascar says in their advisory

When is the next advisory?
Who had said to look out for development in the Caribbean this week? Someone on the blog, but can't remember who. I have some discount tickets at Honey Baked Ham if you need one for TSpin, Geoff.
BBL
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
can't wait to see Madagascar says in their advisory


Not often you hear that phrase in this blog :), but you do a great job Hades in keeping us posted on storms in other areas!
Never mind. It's at 06:30 AM UTC.
Madagascar and Mauritius has different times they release advisories
Quoting Grothar:
Who had said to look out for development in the Caribbean this week? Someone on the blog, but can't remember who. I have some discount tickets at Honey Baked Ham if you need one for TSpin, Geoff.


I said last night to watch the Caribbean in 5-7 days because of that big high...By next Saturday we will have something to be watching again.
BBL
Is Nana lurking tonight?
Madagascar website still has the 18:00 PM UTC statement

Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


I said last night to watch the Caribbean in 5-7 days because of that big high...By next Saturday we will have something to be watching again.
Just came back on the blog and that is something I could have done without seeing .
Warning Nr / Avis Nr 05/04 15/11/2009 0100 UTC --
System / Système SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE --
Name / Nom ANJA --
Position / Position NEAR 12° 9 S - 70° 5 E 15/11/2009 0000 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure / Pression minimale estimée au centre 978 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre / Vent moyen maxi (10 mn) près du centre 55 KT (100 KM/H) --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi 75 KT (140 KM/H) --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) / Nombre CI (Classification de Dvorak) CI 4.0 --
Movement over the past 06 hours / Déplacement au cours des dernières 06 heures ALMOST STATIONNARY / QUASI-STATIONNAIRE --
Other informations / Autres informations

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oh it's released 55kts 978 hPa
Every year Madagascar is hit by hurricanes. These hurricanes normally come from the equatorial region of the Indian Ocean. Some of them have a reasonable strength but others are real devastating. Excerpt from Wiki!!!!

I never knew this! I thought the waters off Madagascar would weaken them. They are not always that warm.
see you all in about 4-6 hours =P
Quoting TampaSpin:


I said last night to watch the Caribbean in 5-7 days because of that big high...By next Saturday we will have something to be watching again.


How could I have forgotten it was you? I was probably concentrating on all those old Christmas movies, you know the ones with all the heavy snow! Do you still think it is an area to watch? If that high stays in place it could keep them down.
Quoting P451:


What do you think about the 10-day ago discussed scenario actually playing out - including the extratropical system eventually bombing as a nor'easter?

Just wondering, for, you were in the camp, and possibly one of the most adamant of the group, that the systems would never merge, and there would be no subsequent strong extratropical system.

Now, those of us discussing the merger, felt it had a about a 30% chance of happening - and after that - felt the extratropical system had about a 30% chance of coming together as it did after the fact.

So the confidence wasn't high, but, the possibility was always there.

Thoughts?



Wow, season must be over, responding to a comment from like 3 days ago.

My response - congratuf***inglations you were right. However, I doubt Ida even had much to do with this noreaster. Ida lost all its energy over the gulf and landfalled as a naked swirl. So I don't know why everyone's calling this "Ida Noreaster"?
Quoting TampaSpin:
This CMC Loop sure is interesting...TOLD ya Geoff...you might owe me a Ham.


haha. A day is not complete without a CMC doomcast. Ex-Ida turns into a Cat 5 hurricane into Miami metro, then intensifying to cat 6 and hitting New Orleans. That model is a joke.
August 1, 2003 � A raging thunderstorm that pounded south-central Nebraska last month ended up leaving a little something extra for residents—and the meteorological record books. The largest hailstone ever recovered in the United States fell in Aurora on June 22, with a record 7-inch diameter and a circumference of 18.75 inches. (Click NOAA image for larger view of record-setting hailstone. Please credit “NOAA.)


Just trying to lighten the mood.
614. beell
Ida was a part of the nor'easter-no dispute on that part. At the mid levels. And as another blogger noted (amd?) it was a deep digging polar jet shortwave that made a true merger with this mid level energy. Leading to a stronger, stacked deep layer cyclone. Which produced a stronger surface low pushed up against strong surface ridging to the north.



Quoting Grothar:


Just trying to lighten the mood.


OMG are you serious, geez, if that hit someone on the head it would kill. That's just a big clump of stones. That should be called "killer hail"
Actually hail is made up of ice, not stones.

From beell's post:

In particular, a supercell thunderstorm moved northeastward across the community of Aurora, Nebraska, producing extremely large hail and multiple short-lived tornadoes. A record setting hailstone was ultimately discovered in Aurora, measuring 7.0 inches (17.78 cm) in diameter with an 18.75 inch (47.63 cm) circumference. This hailstone broke the previous hail size (diameter and circumference) record of the Coffeyville, Kansas hailstone of 3 September 1970.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Actually hail is made up of ice, not stones.

From beell's post:

In particular, a supercell thunderstorm moved northeastward across the community of Aurora, Nebraska, producing extremely large hail and multiple short-lived tornadoes. A record setting hailstone was ultimately discovered in Aurora, measuring 7.0 inches (17.78 cm) in diameter with an 18.75 inch (47.63 cm) circumference. This hailstone broke the previous hail size (diameter and circumference) record of the Coffeyville, Kansas hailstone of 3 September 1970.


Um yeah i do know that, I ment it as hail STONES not stones as in rocks.
And Grothar meant no harm by his post...just posted something historical. BTW, thank you for all your posts from down under. Very informative.
621. beell
The "fun" starts at about the 2 minute mark.

Amazing video...most I went through down here is marble size hail.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Amazing video...most I went through down here is marble size hail.

Parts of QLD had golf ball- baseball size this week in some server storms
624. beell
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Amazing video...most I went through down here is marble size hail.


Kinda makes you wonder, for what ever reason, and there could have been many, these guys approached this storm from the wrong direction-as in "core punch".
Quoting AussieStorm:


Parts of QLD had golf ball- baseball size this week in some server storms


Southern Qld counts cost of hail storms

The clean-up continues in southern Queensland after wild hail storms on the Darling Downs and Granite Belt yesterday.

Fruit and vegetable growers are facing big losses after small to medium-sized hail pelted their crops near Stanthorpe around 3:30pm yesterday.

Local resident Simon Butler says the hail storm was terrifying.

"Ballandean, Glen Aplin and Wallangarra all got big hail storms," Mr Butler said.

"It just came out of nowhere and really just hit. It was pretty bad. It dented the roof and shed and it did get a few dents in my car."

The owner of Ballandean Estate Wines, Angelo Puglisi, says about 25 per cent of his grape crop has been ruined, but says it is minor compared to the crop damage on other farms.

"We have got a bit of a hail damage," Mr Puglisi said. "There was quite a layer of hail on the ground and there is probably 25 per cent damage.

"Some of the stone fruit farmers copped it pretty badly.

"Those who weren't covered with hail nets copped it, and that's probably hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stone fruit."

On the Darling Downs, the storms wreaked havoc at Dalby and Chinchilla.

Police say there was no hail, but winds gusts of more than 110 kilometres an hour brought down trees and powerlines and several homes had their roofs blown off.

- ABC

Hail storm batters Darling Downs

Storm activity has eased across South East Queensland after lashing parts of the Darling Downs on Thursday evening.

The front, which produced heavy rainfall and large hail, moved in a line through Kingaroy, Boonah, Caboolture, Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold Coast.

More than 30,000 homes lost power on Thursday but electricity providers say all but 5,000 have had their electricity restored.

Most of the homes without power are in the Ipswich region and the Lockyer Valley.

Weather Bureau senior forecaster Brian Rollstone says the township of Allora was battered by hail on Thursday afternoon.

"The intensity is weakening now and it is starting to drift toward the east and by the time this all gets to Brisbane it will be even weaker," he said.

"I think there's thundery rain on the coast there, much weaker again, so all the storms started on the ranges on the Darling Downs and it is only just getting onto the coast strip."

Local police Sergeant Bruce Willett says there have been no reports of damage.

"We ended up with a wave of hail across us and if left a layer of white across the ground, probably large marble size," he said.

"And then we had another wave come over but it was only pea-sized, so I spoke to the Clifton police officer before and he had an unconfirmed report from a fellow over at Killarney that they may have had some cricket ball-sized stuff this afternoon."

Earlier the Bureau was warning of the chance of flash flooding.

- ABC

628. beell
Core Punch - [Slang], a penetration by a vehicle into the heavy precipitation core of a thunderstorm.

Core punching is not a recommended procedure for storm spotting.

NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-145
A COMPREHENSIVE GLOSSARY OF
WEATHER TERMS FOR STORM SPOTTERS


Guess it's ok if you are a chaser!

...too bad stupid isn't painful...
If stupid was painful the world would be a lot smarter.
Jesse
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is Nana lurking tonight?

Just finished watching a movie and SVU, if you're still here...what's up?
I have a bumper sticker on both my trucks press that says "stupid should hurt"
I found a grapefruit size hailstone in about 6" of ice left on the ground by a storm in Sanford, FL around the first week in April 1982 I believe. The storm did not make it into the records, but it cleaned the glass out of a lot of vehicles, including mine. The windshield was on the front seat. It was a black cloud from the North, with horizontal hail and continuous CG lightning. It stripped the metal strips from a privacy chain link fence, and wrapped them all into a big tumbleweed. Dude came into the shop with a brand new convertible Trans-AM, looking to buy duct tape.
Quoting rareaire:
I have a bumper sticker on both my trucks press that says "stupid should hurt"

Any guesses on how many flood prone areas and beach front homes there would be if it really hurt?
Jesse
636. 789


by Kristina Rohall

Posted on November 14, 2009 at 9:33 PM

Updated today at 10:57 PM


Governor Tim Kaine met the people behind the devastation left by the November Nor'easter Saturday.

He toured some of the hardest hit areas in Hampton Roads, including three neighborhoods in Hampton and several sections of Ocean View in Norfolk.

"It's heartbreaking when you see people who have suffered losses like these," said Kaine. "Everybody's trying to help each other out, and neighbors are helping each other out which is an inspiring thing to see."

Hampton resident Angela Leary suffered major losses in her home, but she is more worried about her friend.

"One neighbor, a very fine man, he's refused his dialysis and he won't leave his house," Leary explained. "He said 'I just want to die here.' He can't take it."

In Norfolk, Kaine met with several residents, including Victor Horsford. Horsford's first floor Ocean View apartment was completely flooded during the Nor'easter.

"It was like two feet of water in there so everything was floating," Horsford explained. "The refrigerator was toppled over and the kitchen is a disaster area."

Horsford doesn't have flood insurance.

"It's pretty bad because we pretty much lost everything," said Horsford. "I guess we'll be starting anew."

The Governor and a handful of state and local officials pledged to help by asking for aid from FEMA. They're in the process of gathering damage estimates and expect to release the total amount of damages Monday or Tuesday.

Hey, where's Ida?

Stupid is painful btw.
637. Hi, Chicklit. I was so surprised by that image I went to the NOAA website to double-check.

I'm SO confused. Maine is under a floodwatch, so, where IS the she-monster?

HELP.
640. xcool
641. 789
Quoting presslord:
...too bad stupid isn't painful...
whats up press is portlight heading out
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
637. Hi, Chicklit. I was so surprised by that image I went to the NOAA website to double-check.

I'm SO confused. Maine is under a floodwatch, so, where IS the she-monster?

HELP.

Gorgeous here in ECFL today. Took a long motorcycle ride and didn't have a single bad moment. Little chill in the air tonight, but no sign of IDA. Will go to the beach tomorrow to take pictures and post. Other than that...I can't tell ya.
Thanks, xcool, that gives me a clearer pic. of what's going on. It's obvious -- we have a Green Giant vs. a She-Monster.
(WeatherStoopid = ME)

Xcool, what/where's that pic?
644. xcool
Wow, what is wrong with me today? I keep losing posts OR double-posting.

Well, Chicklit, I am SOOO glad you had such a nice day (and even healthy). So maybe we really might see some sun here tomorrow, finally.

xcool, don't mind me...I thought one of your posts mysteriously disappeared; it didn't. Just too much webbernetting on my part.
646. 789
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Thanks, xcool, that gives me a clearer pic. of what's going on. It's obvious -- we have a Green Giant vs. a She-Monster.
(WeatherStoopid = ME)

Xcool, what/where's that pic?
are you still on alert
647. xcool
789 FOR ?
Quoting Chicklit:
Hey, where's Ida?


"Nor Ida" is hiding in the bottom picture on the right. What excitement she has planned for the next several days should be very interesting!
649. 789
Quoting xcool:
789 FOR ?
that was for awake sorry xcool
650. xcool
haha
Quoting 789:
that was for awake sorry xcool


LOL. Thank G-d I'm not the only one who gets posts outta place sometimes!
Short answer, yes. If you have a minute, I'm typing a bit more explanation for you.
The property damage totals for "Nor Ida" will probably approach $1 Billion USD in damages/flood losses. Unfortunately many do not have flood insurance. This is a military area with Naval and other bases there. About 2,000.000 people were affected over a 48-96hr period of with up to 12 inches of rain and incessant 40-50MPH winds w/gusts to 70MPH over a 24-36 hr period.

Hopefully FEMA steps up to the plate to offer assistance, as it appears many have lost everything they had. Also our prayers should
be fro their speeedy recovery.

Awake in Maryland and Va Beach hurricane posted info to help keep us informed.

I suggest we wll contribute, as we can to Portlight to get these folks supplies to assist them fot their speedy recovery.

Aha, found it! And thanks for posting it 789, because this has some of the info I was waiting for:

The Governor and a handful of state and local officials pledged to help by asking for aid from FEMA. They're in the process of gathering damage estimates and expect to release the total amount of damages Monday or Tuesday.


See the part where it says damage estimates Monday or Tuesday? Each county has to have a certain threshold of damages to be included in the State request to the Federal government for a MAJOR disaster declaration.
Obviously, a couple of the counties have horrible damages; IMO will be a fast declaration.
I don't know that area of VA very well, but a couple counties maybe will have less than the threshold necessary to get Federal help (then the State of VA will help them out, and maybe the Small Business Administration -- if they're rural, maybe the Dep't. of Ag.). So you see, it can get involved.
The good thing is once VA has the major declaration, counties CAN be added later.

So, sorry I took so long to explain...once the President has signed, those of us who are Disaster Reservists can come in and help out. It's like we have to be invited you know...no one wants the Feds invading!!

We all have different specialties. I used to be in Community Relations...but this will be my first time out with Public Affairs (which is about time because that's really what I did in my last "real" life).

And yes, while I'm deployed I'm under FEMA. When I'm not deployed, I'm a private citizen. In my county, I'm a CERT volunteer.

So now prob. Patrap & Press are going to be like -- OMG -- flag her every post, dang guberment no good Fix Everything MY Arse arggghhhh
Quoting Bordonaro:
The property damage totals for "Nor Ida" will probably approach $1 Billion USD in damages/flood losses. Unfortunately many do not have flood insurance. This is a military area with Naval and other bases there. About 2,000.000 people were affected over a 48-96hr period of with up to 12 inches of rain and incessant 40-50MPH winds w/gusts to 70MPH over a 24-36 hr period.

Hopefully FEMA steps up to the plate to offer assistance, as it appears many have lost everything they had. Also our prayers should
be fro their speeedy recovery.

Awake in Maryland and Va Beach hurricane posted info to help keep us informed.

I suggest we wll contribute, as we can to Portlight to get these folks supplies to assist them. For their speedy recovery.
Quoting Bordonaro:
The property damage totals for "Nor Ida" will probably approach $1 Billion USD in damages/flood losses. Unfortunately many do not have flood insurance. This is a military area with Naval and other bases there. About 2,000.000 people were affected over a 48-96hr period of with up to 12 inches of rain and incessant 40-50MPH winds w/gusts to 70MPH over a 24-36 hr period.



GREAT stats; concise and powerful.

Absolutely no doubt FEMA will step up. Virg. Emerg. Mngmnt & Kaine have done a great job paving the way. It's just a matter of how many counties, I'm sure. Also, almost all reservists are NOT first responders, so we have to wait for flood waters to go down, no dangerous situations...our 1st job is to NOT get in the way of the first responders and not become part of the problem. THEN recovery can begin.

And yes, ALL disasters begin on the local level and we cannot recover without what we call the Voluntary (or Community) Organizations Active in Disaster, like Portlight, Red Cross, Salvation Army, and church groups.
One very small thing I do is try to go to the disaster with a full suitcase and come home with an emptier one -- just leave stuff with one of the charities or churches.
So did I put 789 to sleep? And everybody else?
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
b-o-r-i-n-g
658. Halyn
I'm 'awake', Awake .. :) Just sitting here thinking about those hail videos you all posted .. and thinking about the Portlight people who are providing much needed services .. the worst I've ever had to deal with is the Mississippi flooding .. have filled my share of sandbags .. and wish I could do more .. but it is really hard to carry an oxygen tank into a disaster area .. so .. know that I am very proud to know that you younger people are stepping up and doing what my peers can no longer do ..
Quoting Halyn:
I'm 'awake', Awake .. :) Just sitting here thinking about those hail videos you all posted .. and thinking about the Portlight people who are providing much needed services .. the worst I've ever had to deal with is the Mississippi flooding .. have filled my share of sandbags .. and wish I could do more .. but it is really hard to carry an oxygen tank into a disaster area .. so .. know that I am very proud to know that you younger people are stepping up and doing what my peers can no longer do ..

Sounds like you have done plenty (that's hard physical labor) to serve your community...proud of YOU. Take good care!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
So did I put 789 to sleep? And everybody else?
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
b-o-r-i-n-g


Its a boring night.. I am sitting here watching a movie and the blog..and adding jokes to mine.
661. Halyn
I'm going to call it a night .. but .. if you would please email me the address for Portlight (at: gon2ca@yahoo.com) I will send an email tomorrow telling about what they are doing and suggest that maybe some of my friends might find it in their hearts to send a donation to Portlight .. as I have a sneaky feeling that Press and the others often put their own money in when it is needed ..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its a boring night.. I am sitting here watching a movie and the blog..and adding jokes to mine.

(Off-topic) Orca, did you and SWMBO have a high fever w/ swine flu? Whatever I had, I wanted to die...but little fever.
I'm not sure of portlight's physical address...do you know how to use the Wunderground mail at the top of the screen?
To WU mail presslord, or portlight?
If not, I'll get it for you tomorrow.
G'night.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

(Off-topic) Orca, did you and SWMBO have a high fever w/ swine flu? Whatever I had, I wanted to die...but little fever.


Low grade.. 100-101
I spiked one night for about 2 hours at 103.
I wasn't to badly hit.. but SWMBO was basically in bed for three days.

Not sure what I am going to get her for our 31st anniversary... after all.. she gave me swine flu for our 30th.
665. 789
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'm not sure of portlight's physical address...do you know how to use the Wunderground mail at the top of the screen?
To WU mail presslord, or portlight?
If not, I'll get it for you tomorrow.
G'night.
thank you very much for your answer had to be away awhile i have a towing bussiness to tend to who knows when!
666. 789
my sister lives in that area her husband was air force (retired)i remember they were there about a year she flooded the auto around 1986?
Orca...hmm, 103 is a high fever in an adult. In a way, wish my bug had been it...get it over with.
It will be FUN to have a year to figure out what to get SWMBO for the 31st...hard to top 30, though. Pink Diamond Pig earrings?

789 -- hey, a guy's gotta' make a living, good for you, but Sat. night's gotta' be tough.
Air Force -- Andrews Air Force Base? '86 is ringing a bell, don't quite remember why...
Orca...almost...I'll keep working on it.

one suggested 31st anniversary gift

Link
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Orca...almost...I'll keep working on it.

one suggested 31st anniversary gift

Link


Ohhh I like that :)
670. 789
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Orca...hmm, 103 is a high fever in an adult. In a way, wish my bug had been it...get it over with.
It will be FUN to have a year to figure out what to get SWMBO for the 31st...hard to top 30, though. Pink Diamond Pig earrings?

789 -- hey, a guy's gotta' make a living, good for you, but Sat. night's gotta' be tough.
Air Force -- Andrews Air Force Base? '86 is ringing a bell, don't quite remember why...
towing is 24/7 love it or hate it tough with the economy but im good ! fema is not always understood kinda like 120,000 dollars in equipment to do 50.00 tow people dont understand that either know what i mean ?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ohhh I like that :)

Sometimes I just LOVE the internet!

Okay, all my guys are asleep here (1 human, 2 canine), so I best get to sleep, too.
I'm looking forward to a day without Ida- remnants gloominess, I have to tell you.
Good night!
Quoting 789:
towing is 24/7 love it or hate it tough with the economy but im good ! fema is not always understood kinda like 120,000 dollars in equipment to do 50.00 tow people dont understand that either know what i mean ?

LOL, you mean like the $100 Pentagon toilet seats! Oh, it never ends!
And I'm glad you're doin' ok.
Good night again!
Quoting 789:
my sister lives in that area her husband was air force (retired)i remember they were there about a year she flooded the auto around 1986?

666. 789 6:21 AM GMT on November 15, 2009

hahah too random.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 15 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Cyclone Anja (960 hPa) located at 13.1S 70.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly quasi-stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
within the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Near Gale-force winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.2S 69.7E - 90 kts (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 13.6S 68.4E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.9S 66.0E - 60 kts (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.9S 65.3E - 40 kts (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Anja is a midget which reacts quickly to the excellent environmental conditions, therefore the dvorak constraints are difficult to respect. Due to the small size of the system, MSLP is estimated higher. The system is deepening rapidly and is quasi-stationary.

Environmental conditions remain very favorable, with a good equatorward inflow, and very good poleward inflow thanks to the subtropical high moving just south of the system. The system is still under an upper level ridge, with a main efficient upper level poleward outflow. Environmental conditions are expected to remain very favorable within the next 36 hours. Then monsoon and trade flows are expected to weaken and sea surface temperatures become cooler, limiting intensification.

This system is expected to track slowly generally west southwest within the next 24 hours, and then accelerate southwest. The steering flow is a mid latitude ridge in the south of the system which will move gradually in the east of the system.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Runion November 15 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Cyclone Anja (960 hPa) located at 13.1S 70.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly quasi-stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
within the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Near Gale-force winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.2S 69.7E - 90 kts (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 13.6S 68.4E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.9S 66.0E - 60 kts (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.9S 65.3E - 40 kts (Tempte Tropicale Modere)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Anja is a midget which reacts quickly to the excellent environmental conditions, therefore the dvorak constraints are difficult to respect. Due to the small size of the system, MSLP is estimated higher. The system is deepening rapidly and is quasi-stationary.

Environmental conditions remain very favorable, with a good equatorward inflow, and very good poleward inflow thanks to the subtropical high moving just south of the system. The system is still under an upper level ridge, with a main efficient upper level poleward outflow. Environmental conditions are expected to remain very favorable within the next 36 hours. Then monsoon and trade flows are expected to weaken and sea surface temperatures become cooler, limiting intensification.

This system is expected to track slowly generally west southwest within the next 24 hours, and then accelerate southwest. The steering flow is a mid latitude ridge in the south of the system which will move gradually in the east of the system.


OMFG. This is an impressive early season southern hem. storm. So tiny yet with a massive eye. Amazing that as soon as the norther hem. dies we have a near major storm in the southern.



can someone post a animated gif, or link to a loop?
ya a system forecasted to be a category 4 on the Meteo France cyclone scale so early in the season is surprising.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
ya a system forecasted to be a category 4 on the Meteo France cyclone scale so early in the season is surprising.


Global cooling :D
LOL



cyclone map from Madagascar Weather Services
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
LOL



cyclone map from Madagascar Weather Services


how is that LOL? It's a fish but it's kind of cloase to madagascar. if that hit land it would destroy homes and lives
Madagascar Weather Services shows most of the Indian Ocean. The only land Anja is near is Diego Garcia (north) and Rodrigues (southwest)

GENERAL SITUATION :
(A) THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ' A N J A ' HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 1000 HOURS, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
' A N J A ' WAS QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND THE POINT 13.1 DEGREES
SOUTH AND 70.5 DEGREES EAST AT ABOUT 1020 KM TO THE NORTH-EAST OF
RODRIGUES.


if you can read the names (small print, i know) there smaller islands listed
Quoting HadesGodWyvern: 681 thanks for the updater.
I know that ANJA is almost stationary.... and may start to move to the NE. I was just wondering where they take all the planes to that are on Diego Garcia...any guesses?
35kt to 100kt in 24 hours...

Is ANJA the tropical cyclone which has grown faster?
Amazing!

ANJA is a Cat. 4

686. P451
Quoting winter123:


Wow, season must be over, responding to a comment from like 3 days ago.

My response - congratuf***inglations you were right. However, I doubt Ida even had much to do with this noreaster. Ida lost all its energy over the gulf and landfalled as a naked swirl. So I don't know why everyone's calling this "Ida Noreaster"?


One day ago not three. It's not a competition. I wasn't "right" there were three outcomes discussed by myself and others. The outcome that did happen was the most interesting therefore the most talked about.

Meanwhile, a case can be made that Ida transferred her energy to the developing low off of SC and was absorbed into that - as well as a front that merged as well. However, without Ida, you don't have the spark for the nor'easter to form.

So while there is debate there as to continuity it is still essentially the same energy recycled and it was done so without a drop in intensity of the overall system.

So it's referred to as extratropical Ida. If anything it is a way to identify the system for the sake of continued discussion.
688. P451
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
637. Hi, Chicklit. I was so surprised by that image I went to the NOAA website to double-check.

I'm SO confused. Maine is under a floodwatch, so, where IS the she-monster?

HELP.


Ida's energy split. A piece went northward while the ULL and surface low meandered and then tracked ESE out into the Atlantic.

The piece that went northward merged with an approaching front which helped to enhance the situation over Maine.

Here is a 48 hour satellite loop of the setup. You can see x-ida circulating along the bottom of the image.

689. P451
X-Ida (or Ex-Nor'Easter that Ida spawned, whichever your pleasure) is continuing ESE this morning - now giving Bermuda some rough weather.

12 Hr Loop: By the looks of the COC this may not be the end of "Ida". It's filled in some.





P451
I appreciate the response yesterday about the BOC ULL. Looks like its about gone this morning but it concentrated a lot of dust in the BOC. Think the GOM is going to have a dust storm now? j/k Thanks
Jesse
691. P451
Quoting TheoJesse:
P451
I appreciate the response yesterday about the BOC ULL. Looks like its about gone this morning but it concentrated a lot of dust in the BOC. Think the GOM is going to have a dust storm now? j/k Thanks
Jesse


No problem. It would still appear to exist however. It's over the BOC.

Link to SSD Atlantic Basin Imagery

Here's a loop. I will say now that this could continue to be a player in a potential looping of Ida/Nor'Easter remains but that entity has not moved south but continued ESE --- and --- this ULL has lifted a bit northward. The dry air you see would also murder any system that moved into it. So while this continues to be a player in a potential future forecast - it's become a killer not a facilitator.

beautiful weather over here in e cen fl right now 64 and sunny
GOOD MORNING Wunderground!

Wow. Glad Anja is not near us... Hopefully she goes to fishland.
Quoting leftovers:
beautiful weather over here in e cen fl right now 64 and sunny

Ok I'll tell you what our weather was like today... Max temps for the upcoming week.
Monday 93°F Tuesday 77°F Wednesday 81°F Thursday 91°F Friday 97°F Saturday 93°F Sunday 86°F

Min temps for the upcoming week
Monday 59°F Tuesday 63°F Wednesday 59°F Thursday 61°F Friday 70°F Saturday 68°F Sunday 68°F
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ok I'll tell you what our weather was like today... Max temps for the upcoming week.
Monday 93°F Tuesday 77°F Wednesday 81°F Thursday 91°F Friday 97°F Saturday 93°F Sunday 86°F

Min temps for the upcoming week
Monday 59°F Tuesday 63°F Wednesday 59°F Thursday 61°F Friday 70°F Saturday 68°F Sunday 68°F

At least your hot is still cooling off at night...could be worse (and prolly will be in a couple of months).

Fog in S Louisiana...
696. P451
Crown Weather discusses the possibilities with the remnants of Ida:

Discussion

The area of low pressure that was once “Ida” was located about 400 miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low pressure system is expected to push southeastward over the next 2 to 3 days and be located just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Tuesday. After Tuesday, the model guidance is split on what they want to do with the energy associated with Ida. The GFS model has been back and forth on either bringing the upper level energy associated with Ida westward to near the Bahamas in about a week and forming a non-tropical coastal storm or shearing the energy off to the northeast into the open Atlantic. The Canadian model forecasts that a piece of energy associated with Ida will track back towards the US East Coast and form another coastal storm next weekend. The European model forecasts that everything associated with Ida will be ripped apart later this week and fall apart into nothingness.

At this point, I do not think Ida will regenerate into a tropical cyclone again. The environmental conditions will be way too hostile for development into a tropical cyclone. With that said, it is quite possible that some of the energy associated with Ida may make it back near the southeast US coast next weekend as high pressure is forecast to build over New England for much of this week causing anything in the southwest Atlantic to track westward towards the US East Coast. This energy could be fed into forming another coastal non-tropical storm next weekend along the US East Coast.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no other areas of interest and environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for tropical development; therefore, tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next week, if not through the end of the month. So, with that said, these tropical weather discussions will only be issued once a week through the end of the Hurricane Season. Obviously, if something forms between now and November 30th, tropical weather discussions would be issued at least once a day.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 11 am EST next Sunday, November 22nd.

Entire Atlantic Basin Infrared Satellite Imagery:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Shaken but not stirred
699. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Conversion of X-Ida is starting allover again....she is converting back to Warm Core from Cold Core. What a freaking system!


Unbelieveable. Looking at the IR loop this AM I was thinking...is this thing really trying to go Tropical again?

Nothing surprises me at all.

Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Shaken but not stirred


Good to see you back.

Quoting P451:


Unbelieveable. Looking at the IR loop this AM I was thinking...is this thing really trying to go Tropical again?

Nothing surprises me at all.



Good to see you back.



She is in about 25.5Cel water....the further south she goes the warmer the water becomes....if you go to the Interactive loops and click the SST you can see that! Unreal she just won't die!
I really am not sure what Ex-Ida's doing..

Quoting CybrTeddy:
I really am not sure what Ex-Ida's doing..




I tell what she is doing....she is trying to become Tropical again......Probably more SubTropical initially tho.......Unbelievable.
Quoting TampaSpin:



I tell what she is doing....she is trying to become Tropical again......Probably more SubTropical initially tho.......Unbelievable.


Your right about the SSTs, further south Ida goes the warmer they get.
Quoting TampaSpin:



I tell what she is doing....she is trying to become Tropical again......Probably more SubTropical initially tho.......Unbelievable.


Let's say she did become subtropical, she won't be called Ida, rather Joaquin.

ex Ida close to Bermuda & taking on subtropical characteristics
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Shaken but not stirred


Playing James Bond? How you doing??
708. beell
Quoting Weather456:


Let's say she did become subtropical, she won't be called Ida, rather Joaquin.


Is that because the main circulation went North and this feature broke off? Not really ex-Ida then?
711. P451
CMC, GFS, NGP all continue her ESE and then kick her off to the NE - somewhat as if the energy splits and a remnant area dissipates SE'erly while the northern piece deepens and merges with another system south of Greenland.


CMC




GFS





NGP



Quoting Grothar:


Is that because the main circulation went North and this feature broke off? Not really ex-Ida then?


I went on the assumption, other energetics were incorporated after Ida went Extra-tropical.
713. P451
Quoting Grothar:


Is that because the main circulation went North and this feature broke off? Not really ex-Ida then?


The nor'easter that formed was an area of low pressure that developed off of SC in response to Ida's leftovers. Those leftovers were probably absorbed into the deepening nor'easter which also merged with a front.

I would guess that is where the entity was no longer Ida...yet I think it's up for debate either way.

Since then it's been a decaying remnant low until this AM.

So I doubt they'd re-initialize Ida. It would get a new name I would think.

Personally, I still track it as "Ida" because there has been continuity with the energy transfers. Yet, officially, it hasn't been "ida" for a couple of days.


Lot of dry air to the East, but it is moving near warmer waters. Checked you Link, TampaSpin. Hey, when do you and P451 sleep???
Quoting P451:


The nor'easter that formed was an area of low pressure that developed off of SC in response to Ida's leftovers. Those leftovers were probably absorbed into the deepening nor'easter which also merged with a front.

I would guess that is where the entity was no longer Ida...yet I think it's up for debate either way.

Since then it's been a decaying remnant low until this AM.

So I doubt they'd re-initialize Ida. It would get a new name I would think.

Personally, I still track it as "Ida" because there has been continuity with the energy transfers. Yet, officially, it hasn't been "ida" for a couple of days.


Is not the "entity" actually still Invest 98? the one they had posted for a day or two... I think the number was 98
716. P451
717. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:


Is not the "entity" actually still Invest 98? the one they had posted for a day or two... I think the number was 98


I think that is long gone. I think that got booted to the NE or flat out ran over by XIda's outer reaches. Possibly even absorbed.


November 11th: (98 in the lower right)



November 13th: (98 = gone)






Quoting P451:


The nor'easter that formed was an area of low pressure that developed off of SC in response to Ida's leftovers. Those leftovers were probably absorbed into the deepening nor'easter which also merged with a front.

I would guess that is where the entity was no longer Ida...yet I think it's up for debate either way.

Since then it's been a decaying remnant low until this AM.

So I doubt they'd re-initialize Ida. It would get a new name I would think.

Personally, I still track it as "Ida" because there has been continuity with the energy transfers. Yet, officially, it hasn't been "ida" for a couple of days.


You know I am usually very agreeable, but again, I would have to agree with you and Weather456 on this one. Only because most of the energy, at least on the maps showed most of Ida move North. Besides, it would bring the total storms this season to 10, if it were to be named Joaquin, which would make it an average year. TampaSpin has been commenting on this feature for a few days as well, with the different scenarios which might occur. It would seem you all were correct.
Gotta run but you can see the Kicker to finally put Ida to sleep and out of here coming in the WaterVapor loop (The last Loop). The Trough is in Texas and very far south. Looks like Cold Temps coming to the south also.
Ida = I da ho I da freak.

A little research that is pertinent to some of our discussions here. I was reading in BAMS this morning...about lightning fatalities.

I think this confirms that Florida's status as the lightning capitol of the US is at least partly a function of population.

Top 10 states by lightning fatalaties per million residents per year: Wyoming, New Mexico, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Mississippi, Utah, Arizona, Louisiana, Montana.

Uses data 1960 to 2000.

Adapted from Table 3 in:
Ashley, W.S., and C.W. Gilson, 2009: A Reassessment of U.S. Lightning Mortality. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1501-1518.

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2009BAMS2765.1
Quoting P451:


I think that is long gone. I think that got booted to the NE or flat out ran over by XIda's outer reaches. Possibly even absorbed.


November 11th: (98 in the lower right)



November 13th: (98 = gone)

IMG alt=""

src="http://i38.tinypic.com/6pswad.jpg">






451, I agree with you on I98L. I beleive that when Ida transfered her energy to the new Ida off the SC coast, 98 got pulled into it. What we are calling the XIda near Bermuda was the circulation that was off the VA, NC coast for the last few days.


AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
31.1N/66.3W
Oh, well, it would be an interesting map if you could see the whole thing, trust me!!!
727. 789
Quoting Weather456:


I went on the assumption, other energetics were incorporated after Ida went Extra-tropical.
i see your bann is over lmao glad your better good blog !
Quoting 789:
i see your bann is over lmao glad your better good blog !


LOL. He probably doesn't even know about the pseudo-rumor I started...

456, someone asked where you were, so in a moment of too-dry humor I said:
"He got banned for posting an on-topic image"

A few folks didn't catch the "on"-topic part and thought you had been banned...I think it was straightened out.

Glad you are back and presumably over your illness (or on your way).


AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
31.1N/66.3W

183 DEGREES SSW OF BERMUDA
MOVEMENT 108 DEGREES ESE
Quoting 789:
i see your bann is over lmao glad your better good blog !


lol, That is a good one. If I did get banned that long (8 days), I would never have return.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I really am not sure what Ex-Ida's doing..


Intensifying over the Warm Gulf Stream waters as we watch! Whether or not she becomes a STS or a TD again is up in the air at the moment.

It would not surprise me to see her sail up the Eastern Seaboard again as a Nor'Easter or a STS.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Intensifying over the Warm Gulf Stream waters as we watch! Whether or not she becomes a STS or a TD again is up in the air at the moment.

It would not surprise me to see her sail up the Eastern Seaboard again as a Nor'Easter or a STS.
should maintain heading ese today then drift further s mon and tuesday then become stationary on wed from what i see may end up near 25 n 60 w
To borrow from 456's blog, the analysis of XIda's rainfall shows a local maximum NW of the Wakefield, VA radar of over 200 mm (7.9 inches). This analysis does not include WSR-88D radar estimates per the caption from NASA/GSFC/TRMM. The radar data showed nearly that same maximum, but was appropriately discounted due to bright banding from the mixed phase hydrometeors.


Caption from TRMM: The rainfall analysis above used merged rainfall Data (3B42) from TRMM, other NASA satellites, Department of Defense satellites, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration polar-orbit satellites, and geostationary satellites.

So, my question, for which I cannot come up with an acceptable answer, is the rainfall by microwave and IR satellite measurement also affected by the same features we know existed there and were the reason the radar reflectivity-derived rainfall totals were discounted? I am not a rainfall rate by satellite expert by any means.

Nothing in the algorithm details answers my question...not directly anyway.
The algorithm 3B42 details, executive summary style: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/3b42.html
Maybe there is a nugget there that means a little something more to someone else besides myself.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Intensifying over the Warm Gulf Stream waters as we watch! Whether or not she becomes a STS or a TD again is up in the air at the moment.

It would not surprise me to see her sail up the Eastern Seaboard again as a Nor'Easter or a STS.

I think she is beyond the Gulf stream...and the waters are not all that warm, either.

735. P451
MODIS - Anja (~ 6 hours ago ) Still a neat picture.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should maintain heading ese today then drift further s mon and tuesday then become stationary on wed from what i see may end up near 25 n 60 w



KOG, they are calling for almost a foot of rain here between now and Tuesday :(

Pineapple express :(
737. P451
"X-Ida" is over approximately 25C temps heading for 25.5C temps.

Quoting Orcasystems:



KOG, they are calling for almost a foot of rain here between now and Tuesday :(

Pineapple express :(




front is building even more rain looks like lots of rain orca break out the boots better than aa shovel
789 and atmoaggie 456 was nevere banned i dont no where you guys evere came up with that he was not on the blogs for 8 days be come he had a cold and now he is feeling better


i say i think atmoaggie sould be the one that get banned for 24hr for giveing out fales info about some one that got banned when they did not he was out with a cold and now he is better
I have a question for AwakeinMaryland. I see that you work with FEMA. I see also that you have the stats for VA. I too am a Disaster Reserve but I am with SBA. Thanks for the info. And I too am waiting for the call for VA. Keep up the info...
Quoting Tazmanian:
789 and atmoaggie 456 was nevere banned i dont no where you guys evere came up with that he was not on the blogs for 8 days be come he had a cold and now he is feeling better


i say i think atmoaggie sould be the one that get banned for 24hr for giveing out fales inof about some one that got banned when they did not he was out with a cold and now he is better

I knew exactly where he was and that was a joke. A rather clear joke if you read it.
Wrong side of the bed???
Nothing in my post today could possibly make you think I actually thought he was banned...
742. 789
Quoting atmoaggie:

I knew exactly where he was and that was a joke. A rather clear joke if you read it.
Wrong side of the bed???
Nothing in my post today could possibly make you think I actually thought he was banned...
456 was seriuosly missed by a lot of us ,my version of welcome back ,thanks atmo ,taz your name fits you well peace dude
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




front is building even more rain looks like lots of rain orca break out the boots better than aa shovel



I think its time to go and make sure the gutters are clean... back later
Quoting 789:
456 was seriuosly missed by a lot of us ,my version of welcome back ,thanks atmo ,taz your name fits you well peace dude



789 thanks
745. xcool



Pressure in Bermuda is pretty low: Link
Global average sea level rise for the past few hundred years has been between 1 and 3 mm per year. So Virginia has lucked out, being on the mow side. In 60 years, the sea has risen there 6 1/4 inches. The land has sunk 4 1/4 inches. So that's a grand total of 10 1/2 inches in 60 years.

Sea level is dropping in Alaska. Australia has seen only 1 mm/yr over the last 150 years. Amsterdam, 1.5 mm. For us metrically handicapped Americans, 1 mm is 4/100ths of an inch.

Globally, we have had slowly rising sea levels for the last 7,000 years or so, and there is no reason to expect that to stop. The unusual thing, the shocking news, the worrisome news would be if the level of the sea remained constant for any significant time.

Despite alarmists' prognoses, sea levels are not expected to rise significantly faster in the near (100 year range) future than they have over the last 6,000 years.

Nonetheless, Jeff is right is his opinion that those who build their houses on the sand have failed to follow good advice -- and governments should restrict such development. Sky-scraping hotels and co-ops built on sand bars and barrier islands (just bigger sand bars) are unwise investments.



Quoting P451:
CMC, GFS, NGP all continue her ESE and then kick her off to the NE - somewhat as if the energy splits and a remnant area dissipates SE'erly while the northern piece deepens and merges with another system south of Greenland.


CMC




GFS





NGP





looks to me like they are developing a surface circulation EAST of bermuda, and that goes north, yet the big low that everyone is watching will go south.
Quoting disasterperson:
I have a question for AwakeinMaryland. I see that you work with FEMA. I see also that you have the stats for VA. I too am a Disaster Reserve but I am with SBA. Thanks for the info. And I too am waiting for the call for VA. Keep up the info...

Just got back from my sis-in-law's birthday lunch. How cool is this -- Maybe we'll end up at the same JFO! See WU mail for my personal e-mail addy.

Also, P451, thanks for answering a question I asked last night about the remnants of the Ida She-Monster.

I'll be hopping on and off while I'm still home, so please forgive me if I don't see someone's questions and/or comments. No one's on iggy...this week...btw, my husband is waiting for one of the Taco's important emergency communications from the executive office. WU mail welcome.
someone was mentioning the thing in the BOC.. what is it? Dry upper low? It's creepy, looks like the eye of Sauron XD
752. P451
X-Ida - MODIS (From about 5 hours ago..MODIS never updates right away, but they're great images)



It's a splendid, warm sunny day here, the leaves still have gorgeous colors. I'm trying to decide if we paid in advance for a day like this...or if we're going to pay, dearly.

Here's more fuel for the fire, but it's too nice to stay inside!

Maybe somebody already posted; as always, apologies in advance!


Hawaii's famed white sandy beaches are shrinking
AP …
By AUDREY McAVOY, Associated Press Writer Audrey Mcavoy, Associated Press Writer
Sat Nov 14, 8:16 pm ET

KAILUA, Hawaii – Jenn Boneza remembers when the white sandy beach near the boat ramp in her hometown was wide enough for people to build sand castles.

"It really used to be a beautiful beach," said the 35-year-old mother of two. "And now when you look at it, it's gone."

What's happening to portions of the beach in Kailua — a sunny coastal suburb of Honolulu where President Barack Obama spent his last two family vacations in the islands — is being repeated around the Hawaiian Islands.

Geologists say more than 70 percent of Kauai's beaches are eroding while Oahu has lost a quarter of its sandy shoreline. They warn the problem is only likely to get significantly worse in coming decades as global warming causes sea levels to rise more rapidly.

"It will probably have occurred to a scale that we will have only been able to save a few places and maintain beaches, and the rest are kind of a write-off," said Dolan Eversole, a coastal geologist with the University of Hawaii's Sea Grant program.

The loss of so many beaches is an alarming prospect for Hawaii on many levels. Many tourists come to Hawaii precisely because they want to lounge on and walk along its soft sandy shoreline. These visitors spend some $11.4 billion each year, making tourism the state's largest employer.

Disappearing sands would also wreak havoc on the environment as many animals and plants would lose important habitats. The Hawaiian monk seal, an endangered species, gives birth and nurses pups on beaches. The green sea turtle, a threatened species, lays eggs in the sand.

Chip Fletcher, a University of Hawaii geology professor, says scientists in Hawaii haven't yet observed an accelerated rate of sea level rise due to global warming.

Instead, the erosion the islands are experiencing now is caused by several factors including a steady historical climb in sea levels that likely dates back to the 19th century.

Other causes include storms and human actions like the construction of seawalls, jetties, and the dredging of stream mouths. Each of these human actions disrupts the natural flow of sand.

But a more rapid rise in sea levels, caused by global warming, is expected to contribute to erosion in Hawaii within decades. In 100 years, sea levels are likely to be at least 1 meter, or 3.3 feet, higher than they are now, pushing the ocean inland along coastal areas.

Fletcher says between 60 to 80 percent of the nation's shoreline is chronically eroding. But the problem is felt particularly acutely in Hawaii because the economy and lifestyle are so dependent on healthy beaches.

The state is doing everything it can to keep the sand in Waikiki, for example, joining with hotels in the state's tourist hub on a plan to spend between $2 million and $3 million pumping in sand from offshore.

Sam Lemmo, administrator of the state's Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands, says the state would need a variety of adaptation strategies for different beaches.

It would likely have to abandon hope for beaches in posh Lanikai and suburban Ewa Beach on Oahu because they're already lined with seawalls and are badly eroded.

The same probably goes for shoreline next to highways or other critical public infrastructure, where seawalls already exist or may have to be built.

Seawalls protect individual properties from encroaching waters but they exacerbate erosion nearby by preventing waves from reaching the sand needed to replenish the beach.

For undeveloped shoreline, the state wants to make sure these areas stay pristine. This happened recently when a Florida-based developer announced plans to build luxury homes on sand dunes in Kahuku on Oahu's North Shore.

"We just kind of went nuts, pulled out all the guns on that one, basically got them to back off," Lemmo said. "We're working pretty hard to keep any new development away from these areas."

The University of Hawaii's Sea Grant program is working with a consultant to develop a beach management plan for Kailua that would address how to deal with a 1 meter rise in sea level. The state hopes this will be the first of many site-specific management plans for Hawaii's beaches.

A "triage," strategy could be applied to Kailua, which is lined by multimillion-dollar homes but doesn't have seawalls.

Fletcher proposes identifying areas where a land conservation fund would buy five or six adjoining properties. The state would tear down buildings on these plots and allow the beach to shift inland.

He said when erosion hits more sections of Kailua beach, there's going to be a clamor to put up seawalls.

"That will be a very important moment," Fletcher said. "If we allow the first home to put up a seawall, then we're probably dooming the entire beach over the course of a couple of decades . . .

Ultimately the beach will disappear. Or we could have an alternative to that, to identify now some portions of Kailua shoreline where we want the beach to live."
754. P451
Seems to have fallen apart this afternoon however.

Quoting P451:
Seems to have fallen apart this afternoon however.


shear on the west side, to be expected in november.
What is the sea level measured relative to?
Quoting BobLouie:
What is the sea level measured relative to?


The land, I think?
T-11 hours and holding to the launch of Atlantis

Looking at the air force predictions, and weatherundergrounds predictions it looks perfect.. 90% chance of GO FOR LAUNCH per Air Force. There wont be a cloud in the sky.

Launch is scheduled for 2:28 p.m EST tomorrow afternoon.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 958.5mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -21.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE



hey look i see a pinehole eye
wow slow in here 3 posts for past hr cane season must really be coming to an end
For those who haven't seen this yet...A soldier returns home to reunite with his "best friend".

Congrats to the N.O. Saints! A perfect 9-0. How great it would be for them to make it to the Super Bowl in Miami where the weather will be fantastic!
The 'skins won.
WHAT????????????
The Deadskins Won.
You're joking.
No, really, I'm serious.

P.S. I LOVE post #762.

And in order to avoid a flag, in case Admin. is working during a slooooow blog & football Sunday --
Isn't Portlight in POQUOSON?

Good slide show of damages, hope they add a pic. of Portlight mobile facilities sometime!

Poquoson
Brought together by the storm


Link
766. Halyn
GeoffreyWPB .. Thank you for that beautiful clip .. I have never seen a happier dog .. :)


Awake ... Thank you for the information .. :)
766. Great, you got Portlight info! You're very welcome.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Congrats to the N.O. Saints! A perfect 9-0. How great it would be for them to make it to the Super Bowl in Miami where the weather will be fantastic!


Unless it will be like Super bowl 41.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
I found a grapefruit size hailstone in about 6" of ice left on the ground by a storm in Sanford, FL around the first week in April 1982 I believe. The storm did not make it into the records, but it cleaned the glass out of a lot of vehicles, including mine. The windshield was on the front seat. It was a black cloud from the North, with horizontal hail and continuous CG lightning. It stripped the metal strips from a privacy chain link fence, and wrapped them all into a big tumbleweed. Dude came into the shop with a brand new convertible Trans-AM, looking to buy duct tape.


Same thing happened in the Orlando/Maitland area during the summer in the early 1990's. Hail the size of golf balls and it was over knee deep in some parking lots in Maitland. Actually, it happened twice in less than a month. The trees in the area looked like PacMan had taken a bite out of the crown of the tree.

Our patio roof collapsed under the weight of the ice and most of us had to have our roof shingles replaced because the insurance companies agreed that the tar had been broken and the leak damage would likely occur later.

Kind of weird seeing drifts of hail almost a foot deep up against our fence.

Weather people said that it was caused by a tight loop in the jet stream that occurred over the area and took the cloud tops to over 75,000 feet. If I recall correctly, the lightning strikes totaled over 8000 in less than six hours.
Super Bowl 41....did not remember that..Feb. 4, 2007

67 °F (19 °C), rainy (first Super Bowl to be played in the rain)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Super Bowl 41....did not remember that..Feb. 4, 2007

67 °F (19 °C), rainy (first Super Bowl to be played in the rain)


MUD BALL without John Madden just wouldn't be right.
Is mud weather related?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


MUD BALL without John Madden just wouldn't be right.
Is mud weather related?


Lol...with only 772 or so posts since Friday morning, I think Admin. will cut us a break if we go a little off topic.
T-MINUS 15 DAYS till the end of 2009 hurricane season!
BLOG IS DEAD.
Yes, mud is weather-related.

Carry on.
Anyone here?
ORCA, PHONE WU HOME!

Flood and landslide warnings issued as B.C. gets hit with heavy rain

By Sam Cooper, Canwest News ServiceNovember 15, 2009

VANCOUVER - Warnings of flooding, landslides and possible fatalities have been issued across British Columbia's south coast as more than 300 millimetres of rain is predicted through Tuesday - almost twice the average daily downpour for November.

The danger is significant enough that one government weather expert told the Vancouver Province people should remain indoors if at all possible.

The deluge is coming courtesy of the Pineapple Express, a winter warm-air surge direct from Hawaii.

Environment Canada issued a warning Saturday for significant rainfall in the region, with showers starting Saturday evening and expected to build in intensity through Sunday, surging to a crescendo Monday and Tuesday.

Provincial Environment Minister Barry Penner told The Province Saturday that areas such as Squamish and the North Shore Mountains could get ``in excess of 300 millimetres'' over a 60-to-72-hour period, which raises concerns of river flooding and landslides in some communities.

Penner said he's worried that a large, early-season snowpack at high elevations could melt and join ``raging rivers,'' leading to a number of dangers.

``I'm not saying (flooding and landslides) will happen, but it's something we are watching for,'' Penner said. ``I'm telling people to pay attention and stay away from rising rivers.''

The Pineapple Express is a weather event that affects B.C. in the winter as warm air from Hawaii surges up the West Coast, says Environment Canada meteorologist David Wray. In the current storm, the warm air stream is being pounded inland by relentless low-pressure systems coming in from the west, he said.

How bad could it get? ``If I didn't have to go outside in the next few days, I wouldn't,'' Wray said.

West Vancouver Island alone was expected to be deluged with 220 mm of rain by Sunday night, Environment Canada said.

Penner said the flood watch has been issued for the following regions: West and Central Vancouver Island (Port Alberni and the Ucluelet-to-Zeballos area), Howe Sound (including the Squamish-Whistler-Pemberton corridor) and Metro Vancouver North Shore (the West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge and Mission areas).

Mountains across Vancouver Island and the South Coast currently have about a metre of snow on the ground at the 1,500-metre elevation. The freezing level will rise to 2,000 metres on Sunday, staying elevated until Tuesday.

Penner said rivers will begin to rise Sunday, with high flows lasting through to at least late Tuesday.

The rain comes as ski resorts around the province have been able to open for business several weeks ahead of schedule after a series of big snow storms made opening a limited number of runs possible.

With files from John Colebourn, Vancouver Province

scooper@theprovince.com
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service




Had to go back a few posts for this:

569. futuremet 8:10 PM EST on November 14, 2009

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yes to the cold fronts! Being a native-born Floridian, I love it when it gets cold. If I remember correctly from previous posts, it could be a cooler than normal winter season for Florida.

I don't really like it. It causes the air to be too dry, which enhances the chance of getting the flu or common cold...

I thought this was an old-wives tale. Is it true, in general to a healthy person, a drop in temperature can enhance your chances of catching a cold or getting the flu? I’ve caught colds during all seasons, not just winter.
Quoting KipHansen:
Global average sea level rise for the past few hundred years has been between 1 and 3 mm per year. So Virginia has lucked out, being on the mow side. In 60 years, the sea has risen there 6 1/4 inches. The land has sunk 4 1/4 inches. So that's a grand total of 10 1/2 inches in 60 years.





Where did you get data that the sea level in VA has risen 6 1/4 inches? On what gauge located where?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Had to go back a few posts for this:

569. futuremet 8:10 PM EST on November 14, 2009

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yes to the cold fronts! Being a native-born Floridian, I love it when it gets cold. If I remember correctly from previous posts, it could be a cooler than normal winter season for Florida.

I don't really like it. It causes the air to be too dry, which enhances the chance of getting the flu or common cold...

I thought this was an old-wives tale. Is it true, in general to a healthy person, a drop in temperature can enhance your chances of catching a cold or getting the flu? I’ve caught colds during all seasons, not just winter.


The virus can travel with more convenience in drier air. Furthermore, people have a tendency to stay indoors during cooler weather, therefore, making the the cold more contagious during winter.

OMG, I just can't stand to post any more flooding, and I'm sure the blog is sick of me.

Just google search "Hawaii flooding" and look at pics.

Is all this flooding "normal" for the weather pattern we're in?

Have I told you all how much I hate flooding?
Mold, mildew, mud, destruction, stinky, pew-ie
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol...with only 772 or so posts since Friday morning, I think Admin. will cut us a break if we go a little off topic.
ya site is under 10 posts an hr realllll slowwwwww winter hibernation comes soon long stretch before may 15
777. AwakeInMaryland 6:55 PM EST on November 15, 2009
ORCA, PHONE WU HOME!

Flood and landslide warnings issued as B.C. gets hit with heavy rain




latest image west coast and the express marches on
Hi futuremet I would guess you were surprised to see that post pop up!…I was speaking specifically about so. Fla. So the same theory applies to us as to people who live where it REALLY gets cold during the winter?
Hope Orca, family and all affected by this system are doing okay.
from an article on about.com, main source: American Asso. of Pediatrics

In tropical areas, where it does not get cold, the common cold and flu season generally occurs during the rainy season. But again, these illnesses are not caused by the rain. They are just more prevalent because people come in closer contact with each other than they do during the dry season.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi futuremet I would guess you were surprised to see that post pop up!…I was speaking specifically about so. Fla. So the same theory applies to us as to people who live where it REALLY gets cold during the winter?


The population density is noticeably smaller in regions where it is very cold (artic circle for instance). After all, not many people live in the north or south pole.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Had to go back a few posts for this:

569. futuremet 8:10 PM EST on November 14, 2009

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yes to the cold fronts! Being a native-born Floridian, I love it when it gets cold. If I remember correctly from previous posts, it could be a cooler than normal winter season for Florida.

I don't really like it. It causes the air to be too dry, which enhances the chance of getting the flu or common cold...

I thought this was an old-wives tale. Is it true, in general to a healthy person, a drop in temperature can enhance your chances of catching a cold or getting the flu? I’ve caught colds during all seasons, not just winter.


We getting another cold front soon?
Where's TornadoDude, and is he feeling torn about this, oh, and what's the weather projected to be:

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

The New England Patriots head to Indianapolis to take on the undefeated Colts in a great AFC rivalry game in the Week 10 Sunday night game. Kick off for this Patriots vs Colts game is set for 8:20 PM EST November 15th. The Patriots come into this game with a 6-2 record, which is good for first place in the AFC East division. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two teams that are undefeated, with a 8-0 record so far in 2009. The Patriots have won three straight games, with wins over Miami, Tampa Bay and a 59-0 blowout against Tennessee. New England’s two losses came to the Jets in week 2 and the Broncos in week 5. Indianapolis is 4-0 at home, and is recently coming off a close 20-17 win against Houston last Sunday. This New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts prime time Sunday night game promises to be an exciting one.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


We getting another cold front soon?


Looks live average temps. for the next 10 days:

Nov 15 Tonight
A few passing clouds. Low 62F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 16 Tomorrow
A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 81F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 16 Tomorrow night
A few clouds. Low around 65F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 17 Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 18 Wednesday
Few showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 19 Thursday
Few showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 20 Friday
Occasional showers possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 21 Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 22 Sunday
Few showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 23 Monday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 24 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Patriots and Colts going to be a great game! Will the perfect season come to an end? Clear and 52 degrees.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHT
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA (04-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 16 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM, Tropical Cyclone Anja (950 hPa) located at 13.5S 69.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
within the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
40 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-force winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.2S 68.2E - 70 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.3S 67.0E - 60 kts (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.3S 65.7E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.9S/66.7E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Corrective Central pressure 950 hpa (10 min) sustained winds 85 kts at 1800 PM UTC

The system intensity is stationary within the past 6 hours. According to the very last animated IR pictures. ANJA begun to move southwestward.

The system environment is still favorable with good low levels inflow and poor vertical upper levels wind shear and a rather good upper level divergence polarward. The efficiency of the polar outflow is weakening due to the westerly jet moving eastward.

The environmental conditions should remain good during the next 12-24 hours beyond 36hrs, the system will track over cooler sea surface temperatures south of 16S. Upper level vertical wind shear is expected to increase after 48 hours.

The steering flow is th e mid tropospheric ridge south of the system, which moves eastwards. The system also tracks southwest then it will recurve southward and then will be absorbed by a mid latitude trough.
Quoting calusakat:


Same thing happened in the Orlando/Maitland area during the summer in the early 1990's. Hail the size of golf balls and it was over knee deep in some parking lots in Maitland. Actually, it happened twice in less than a month. The trees in the area looked like PacMan had taken a bite out of the crown of the tree.

Our patio roof collapsed under the weight of the ice and most of us had to have our roof shingles replaced because the insurance companies agreed that the tar had been broken and the leak damage would likely occur later.

Kind of weird seeing drifts of hail almost a foot deep up against our fence.

Weather people said that it was caused by a tight loop in the jet stream that occurred over the area and took the cloud tops to over 75,000 feet. If I recall correctly, the lightning strikes totaled over 8000 in less than six hours.


I live in the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex. That sounds like some of the wild storms we receive here in TX.

We had grapefruit size hail in Arlington in April 1994. It is an almost unbelievable sight to see hail that large, as they pummel through roofs, windows, skylights, car windshields and denude trees in a matter of 10 minutes!
Anyone started their Christmas shopping yet? I have about 90% of mine done. Anyone have any memorable white Christmas'?
We already have 24 hour Christmas music on the radio down here...so what the heck...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Anyone started their Christmas shopping yet? I have about 90% of mine done. Anyone have any memorable white Christmas'?


Hmmmph... bah humbug
Expect a new blog until Monday, when I'll discuss the outlook for the remainder of hurricane season. It is finally over?

Jeff Masters

Bet Dr. Masters says less than 30% chance of anything forming for the remainder of the season.
Hope you are doing well Orca...I started shopping in January. Knew what I wanted to buy for my friends and most of my family right from the get go. Plus the prices were great.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hope you are doing well Orca...I started shopping in January. Knew what I wanted to buy for my friends and most of my family right from the get go. Plus the prices were great.


Tell me your a wife...
Husband types wait until the 24th... thats why they call it eve.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Tell me your a wife...
Husband types wait until the 24th... thats why they call it eve.


No Al Bundy here. If I see something I know someone will like, get it early and over with. Less headaches later on.
799. There's the man of the Pineapple Express.
Orca, what's happening?

What's next, locusts, frogs, and famine?
This is part of what we're seeing...

VANCOUVER - Warnings of flooding, landslides and possible fatalities have been issued across British Columbia's south coast as more than 300 millimetres of rain is predicted through Tuesday - almost twice the average daily downpour for November.

The danger is significant enough that one government weather expert told the Vancouver Province people should remain indoors if at all possible.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
799. There's the man of the Pineapple Express.
Orca, what's happening?

What's next, locusts, frogs, and famine?
This is part of what we're seeing...

VANCOUVER - Warnings of flooding, landslides and possible fatalities have been issued across British Columbia's south coast as more than 300 millimetres of rain is predicted through Tuesday - almost twice the average daily downpour for November.

The danger is significant enough that one government weather expert told the Vancouver Province people should remain indoors if at all possible.


Overkill
We live on a rock (Vancouver Island)... unless your close to a mountain (landslide) then your ok :)
Its going to get wet and deep in the valleys and dips... they are calling for almost a foot in spots. I cleaned all of the gutters today just in case.

Heck of a way to get you to clean the gutters, Orca. At least you can't attribute the weather to SWMBO! Glad it's hype.

Welcome to the "swine flu" cartoon gifts page from CartoonStock.

Link
Look at all the snow!!!

Awake, I have question for you. Has there been any dqamage assements done yet? I am curious about downed trees etc. I know the flooding was bad.

Mike
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Look at all the snow!!!

img src="" alt="" />


Wow, I've never seen so much snow!! Not even in the movie "Gremlins"!!!
Lol Grothar..How are you this evening? Weather wise of course.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lol Grothar..How are you this evening? Weather wise of course.


The weather in Ft. Lauderdale has been perfect. Dry, clear skies, 70's. At half-time I even went outside to see how perfect it was.
I haven't seen the blog this quiet since November 2002!!!
Was WU around in 2002?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Was WU around in 2002?


No, it started in 2005, but you can't say it wasn't quiet in 2002! Just wanted to see if anyone was paying attention. you get a cookie!
From Dr. Masters' profile:

While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Gotcha Grothar!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From Dr. Masters' profile:

While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.



WeatherS, I mean Geoff, the blog started in 2005. WU before that. lol
Quoting cgmaddog:
Awake, I have question for you. Has there been any dqamage assements done yet? I am curious about downed trees etc. I know the flooding was bad.

Mike

Hi, Mike, sorry I've been watching the new "Prisoner" show on AMC.
Tomorrow I will post the National Situation Report just as soon as I see it. I don't know where you are, but I just google searched "Preliminary Damage Assessments" and see they started this morning in NJ. Also looks like they started yesterday in Norfolk. Other towns/cities in VA currently underway.

Trees that are down are handled differently in different jurisdictions. I've seen everything from a controlled burn by the County Fire Dep't. (BIG fire, kind of fun) to collections by the Army Corps of Engineers...every disaster is different!! Pls. call your County Emergency Management office; they may have info for you, and just as importantly, YOU may have information for them. Remember all disasters start on the local level.
Hope this helps. If your county is included in a major disaster declaration, then go to
www.disasterassistance.gov
It's a great site and will save you a lot of headaches.
Like I said, every disaster is different (and personal!) and I don't want to give you any incorrect or outdated info. Blessings.

P.S. I just re-read your question. Maybe you were inquiring because you'd like work clearing trees? I don't know much about that, I think you register with county so folks know you're "kosher." :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Gotcha Grothar!


Gotcha back Geoff! ha ha. I read up on it before I posted that. Read all the posts. I said blog. You just lost your cookies. lol
Okay...got the order all straight now.
804. Thanks, Geoff! Ahhh, childhood.
So what weather-related items are you and Grothar purchasing for your brides this Christmas?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
804. Thanks, Geoff! Ahhh, childhood.
So what weather-related items are you and Grothar purchasing for your brides this Christmas?


I don't know. What do you want? :)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
804. Thanks, Geoff! Ahhh, childhood.
So what weather-related items are you and Grothar purchasing for your brides this Christmas?


We each buy our own gifts and give them to each other to wrap. Not much of a surprise, but we always get what we want. Not a bad deal at all.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don't know. What do you want? :)

ROFL! Same as everyone else. My mutual fund retirement savings back in less than 5 years (in other words, a Christmas miracle).

Oh, and weather-wise...I already have waterproof boots, soooooo, hm, winter in Virginia...will I need those red long johns this year?

P.S. Mr. & Mrs. Flood and NRAAmy didn't get banned, did they? Are they taking a holiday?
xcool is prob. lurking, waiting to pounce (hi lurkers).
It really is going to be fun watching her wrap the new Lexus this year. Oh, it will have a weatherband radio in it, for severe weather alerts.
You two are great! Glad I got to meet you this season.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You two are great! Glad I got to meet you this season.


Same sentiment here, Geoff. Awake, where were you when I was in college? We could have had a lot of laughs walking in the snow from building to building.
Grothar, I would like the contact information for your financial advisor, please.

I guess the Lexus doesn't need All Wheel Drive for the weather in Florida...unless your better half decides to take an extended visit to Mama in Norway (she knows when you've been bad or good, so be good for goodness sakes)!

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Grothar, I would like the contact information for your financial advisor, please.

I guess the Lexus doesn't need All Wheel Drive for the weather in Florida...unless your better half decides to take an extended visit to Mama in Norway (she knows when you've been bad or good, so be good for goodness sakes)!



Let her ski, like the rest of them!
I guess we are a cult of three tonight. Probally a lot of lurkers thinking, what the heck are they talking about!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Grothar, I would like the contact information for your financial advisor, please.

His name was Bernie.. something. Don't know where he can be contacted at the moment.
I'm not as fast keeping up with posts as you two! Also I'm sort of trying to watch Pats-Colts game in order to keep up w/TampaSpin & T-Dude...but I've just never "gotten" football & many good dudes have tried.
Ohhhhh, Geoff and Grothar, that would have been a total hoot if we had all been at university together! Dang, the Maryland campus is so darn big I wore out boots and swore from one end to the other.
You guys are the best!
You three are really starting to worry me.
Hey, I just bought some stuff in an auction from a guy named Bernie. What a coincidence!
Just having fun Orca. Slow night on the blog.
Ah! A meeting of Insomniacs.
Quoting Orcasystems:
You three are really starting to worry me.


Hey Orca, I think it is PTD. Post tropics depression. Withdrawal from all the anxiety of the season. I've had very little time for diversion these past few months and this blog has been a great release of tension. The only blog I have ever been on. The field in which I am involved does not allow for much levity. The people on the blog, for the most part, have not only been informative, but humorous and witty; traits I find most admirable. It is bloggers like you who keep us informed on the technical side and we do the fill-ins. I think it is a good balance. Hope no one is offended. We try and stay on topic when there is something really important.
Quoting Orcasystems:
You three are really starting to worry me.

What, are you saying I need to get a life?

You'd be correct, except I have one...I'm just procrastinating because I don't want to attend to it just yet. Like, we have a health savings account for the first time, but I have no idea how it works.

Oh, and I have to pull out the coats and winter clothing...for the weather.
Nice to see you again Pottery...It's not very often I can stay up late on a Sunday night...but I enjoy the blog...and talking the tropics...and watching football...just a way to let off steam and have a good time.
Quoting pottery:
Ah! A meeting of Insomniacs.

Pottery! What's going on... life and/or weather. It was lovely here today, warm, and I don't want it to end after a dismal week.

Besides, Orca would love to hear a different voice. He's getting the dismal stuff now!

And are Ida remnants really going to get Grothar and Florida again?
Quoting pottery:
Ah! A meeting of Insomniacs.


That's why we call nana "Awake"!
839. Exactly. I wasn't intending it to be a travel ad for my beloved State. I'm a night-owl by nature...going back to 7 a.m. mandatory morning meetings is going to be a bear.
All is good here.
The weather is hot, with not nearly enough rain for this time of year. Gardens are drying up already. Strange. Not looking forward to the coming dry season at all. (Dec-May)
Quoting pottery:
All is good here.
The weather is hot, with not nearly enough rain for this time of year. Gardens are drying up already. Strange. Not looking forward to the coming dry season at all. (Dec-May)


So sorry pottery. Maybe this strange weather pattern we are in will bring you some rain. Hoping for you!
Quoting pottery:
All is good here.
The weather is hot, with not nearly enough rain for this time of year. Gardens are drying up already. Strange. Not looking forward to the coming dry season at all. (Dec-May)


Same here in Ft. Lauderdale, I swear I saw a gecko carrying a little bottle of water. We had a very dry summer as well and hotter than I can ever remember.
There is something seriously wrong with this post, I am not suppose to be in any AOI's :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Could very well happen, WPB. There is a large portion of cloud east of here, that might make it. But this year, that shear has blown most of those clouds away.
LOL Grothar. My wife was in Fla. in august. Said she was going to drop dead from the heat there. She had a great time tho'.

Keep dry, Orca. And you better check that the overflows are clear, in the Koi ponds!
Quoting pottery:
Keep dry, Orca. And you better check that the overflows are clear, in the Koi ponds!


Done.. and the gutters also
There's nothing wrong with insomniacs...some of my best friends are insomniacs!
Colts and Saints remain undefeated!
Quoting Orcasystems:
There is something seriously wrong with this post, I am not suppose to be in any AOI's :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Humor in Comments


Orca, 300ml is nearly 1 foot, is it not? Could this be correct?
Orca, I thought you all would have learned better from our Mid-Atlantic mess last week.
Now, send some of that mess to Pottery like we should have left Ida-mess in Florida.

BTW, Got a good Emergency Management Agency?

OMG, Geoff, did you see that? That was the most surprising football game ever. I thought the Pats had it won and I was bored. The Colts won by 1 point. Holy moly. Gosh, maybe I should always just watch the last quarter and I might like football.

P.S. YES, l foot. That's why I was so worried!
Quoting Floodman:
There's nothing wrong with insomniacs...some of my best friends are insomniacs!


Flood!!! How goes it?
I thought that insomniacs only had friends that were insomniacs.
heheheheh
Quoting Grothar:


Orca, 300ml is nearly 1 foot, is it not? Could this be correct?


Yup... its gonna be wet.. gonna screwup my Tee time.
Flood and landslide warnings issued as B.C. gets hit with heavy rain

VANCOUVER — Warnings of flooding, landslides and possible fatalities have been issued across British Columbia’s south coast as more than 300 millimetres of rain is predicted through Tuesday — almost twice the average monthly downpour for November. (more)
You can have tea anytime Orca.
...Oh, you mean Tee. Sorry
Reminded me of the Saints - Fins game. Heartbreaker for me :(
well im still watching ex Ida low moving southward slowly but surely , now at 30 north 66 west,wonder what i would do with marginally favored wind shear in the area and warmer sea temperature waters,,could it re intensifies again? well time will tell. Just curious.
HMMmm, that sounds serious, actually.
12" is PLENTY rain, around hills and valleys.
Quoting Floodman:
There's nothing wrong with insomniacs...some of my best friends are insomniacs!

Yeah, and where are your other friends?

(Sorry, Patriots fan here, who has to admit major grudging admiration for Colts..."our" Baltimore Colts from the Jurassic period.)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yup... its gonna be wet.. gonna screwup my Tee time.


I read a very interesting article on Vancouver Island in National Geographic a while back. They showed it from 1850 to present and the tremendous amount of deforestation that had taken place and the different levels of trees which had been replaced. Still nowhere where it once had been. How bad is a system like that when you get such a heavy rain so quickly?
Quoting Grothar:


Flood!!! How goes it?


PAinful...I don't know what it is; I hurt worse now knowing that I'll be having the surgery this week than I did before I knew about it...sleep has been rather hard to come by
Ouch, Flood.
Take care, man.
Quoting Orcasystems:
There is something seriously wrong with this post, I am not suppose to be in any AOI's :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Humor in Comments


Ahhhh, yes you are!! It is currently British Columbia's turn to get the blast from the "Pineapple Express". This is a weather pattern that will continue on and off from now until mid March 2010, affecting the W Coast of Canada and the USA.

I hope that you and yours, including everyone in BC are safe through this storm. I know that the situation is very serious. Just hang tough and hopefully by Tuesday everything will pass through.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yeah, and where are your other friends?

(Sorry, Patriots fan here, who has to admit major grudging admiration for Colts..."our" Baltimore Colts from the Jurassic period.)


Wow, that was rather a shocker, huh? Never count Peyton Manning out

My other friends? Well, one just left (LST, the wonderful Mrs. Flood made Jambalya) and the rest are likely sleeping...aside from you folks
Quoting pottery:
Ouch, Flood.
Take care, man.


I'm good pottery...just waiting...how have you been? I typically log out as you're coming in or coming in as you're going out.
Flood...just know the surgery will make the pain go away. It may take awhile afterwards, but it will go away. Anxiety is a normal reaction before surgery, but concentrate on the end result.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I guess we are a cult of three tonight. Probally a lot of lurkers thinking, what the heck are they talking about!

UH, yea!
Quoting Floodman:


PAinful...I don't know what it is; I hurt worse now knowing that I'll be having the surgery this week than I did before I knew about it...sleep has been rather hard to come by


You certainly don't have to answer, but what procedure are the using?
Quoting Grothar:


I read a very interesting article on Vancouver Island in National Geographic a while back. They showed it from 1850 to present and the tremendous amount of deforestation that had taken place and the different levels of trees which had been replaced. Still nowhere where it once had been. How bad is a system like that when you get such a heavy rain so quickly?


Actually you are mislead by that kind of article.

Do we use Block clear cutting.. yes.
Do we replant every tree cut... yes.
Do we have a deforestation problem... No
Will it cause problems in heavy rains... Maybe in a fresh area (which we no longer do)

Doing good here Flood.
Going to be a bachelor for 3 weeks. Not my favourite condition..

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Flood...just know the surgery will make the pain go away. It may take awhile afterwards, but it will go away. Anxiety is a normal reaction before surgery, but concentrate on the end result.


I'm right there...I'm not really nervous about it; I'm good with it. I think maybe the idea of relief has allowed my game face to drop a bit...I will admit though that looking at my MRI and the train wreck that my back has become was shocking; I had no idea how, well, bad it is. Kind of funny in a way, you know? Live fast die young and leave a good looking corpse...I just forgot the die young part...LOL
Jambalaya, yummm, Flood!
Put some of that capsaicin (chili peppers) on your back!

Well, dear friend, sorry you have to hurt...but wow, is that ever the Universe telling you that you have made the right decision to have the surgery. I'm sure you're kind of tensed up because, well, it's surgery.

Nana says hot cocoa and a warm bath for you.
(Or Kahlua, or Bailey's...if you will.)

So this insomniac is going to try to get some sleep. Thanks for the conversation and watching football w/me, too!
Thought for sure you would of used the 3 stooges emoticon Dan!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually you are mislead by that kind of article.

Do we use Block clear cutting.. yes.
Do we replant every tree cut... yes.
Do we have a deforestation problem... No
Will it cause problems in heavy rains... Maybe in a fresh area (which we no longer do)



But they showed aerial pictures and everything! No, I believe you since you are there. I would imagine that no place inhabited is as pristine as it once was. They did mention the tremendous effort in the reforestation that had taken place over the years. Very commendable. It is a place I would like to visit one day.
Quoting Grothar:


You certainly don't have to answer, but what procedure are the using?


Discectomy at L4-L5, fusion using the titanium cage and nerve decomptression at L5-S1

My understanding is that my leg pain will be gone when I wake up after surgery, though the back pain will be considerably increased (titanium screws in the vertabrae and all...you know)...the cessation of leg pain after 8 years of constant pain will be worth the effort
Quoting Floodman:


I'm right there...I'm not really nervous about it; I'm good with it. I think maybe the idea of relief has allowed my game face to drop a bit...I will admit though that looking at my MRI and the train wreck that my back has become was shocking; I had no idea how, well, bad it is. Kind of funny in a way, you know? Live fast die young and leave a good looking corpse...I just forgot the die young part...LOL


Dude..I don't know you from Adam. But I do know from your posts on here you are a fighter and you will beat this thing. There is no doubt in my mind.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Jambalaya, yummm, Flood!
Put some of that capsaicin (chili peppers) on your back!

Well, dear friend, sorry you have to hurt...but wow, is that ever the Universe telling you that you have made the right decision to have the surgery. I'm sure you're kind of tensed up because, well, it's surgery.

Nana says hot cocoa and a warm bath for you.
(Or Kahlua, or Bailey's...if you will.)

So this insomniac is going to try to get some sleep. Thanks for the conversation and watching football w/me, too!


G'night, Awake...sleep well, darlin'! See you in the morniong, I'm sure!
Yoiks, Flood. Painfree after 8 yrs has got to be good.
Best wishes with the op.
You will get to be a real pain in the $%^ at airport security gates, buzzing and tweeping everytime you walk through! with bolts in your spine.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Dude..I don't know you from Adam. But I do know from your posts on here you are a fighter and you will beat this thing. There is no doubt in my mind.


Thanks, Geoffrey, I appreciate that! The funny thing about these blogs and chats is that we tend to be more ourselves than we are in a face to face meeting, I think...history has shown me that I get to know people better from these places than I do sometimes in person. Mrs. Flood and I met in a medical chat 12 years ago, if that's any indication
Awake, Thanks for getting back to me. I do Storm cleanup out of Alabama and (will travel anywhere there is a job)just deciding if I need to start the treck North or not. I grew up in Pa and was stationed in Va and DE and NJ. So I am familier with the areas just don't know if any work is available or not.

Mike
Quoting Floodman:


Discectomy at L4-L5, fusion using the titanium cage and nerve decomptression at L5-S1

My understanding is that my leg pain will be gone when I wake up after surgery, though the back pain will be considerably increased (titanium screws in the vertabrae and all...you know)...the cessation of leg pain after 8 years of constant pain will be worth the effort


Had a neck laminectomy in 2005. Titanium plate and screws and all. Had been pressing on my spinal cords, affecting my vision and walking, had migranes from Hades. After the operation, I had immediate relief. The best thing I ever did. Haven't had a headache since and can do more than before. The only thing I can not do is take out the garbage. I said the doctor told me not to drag anything to the front yard. lol Good Luck, Flood, it really isn't as bad as it sounds. You will be surprised at how quickly you recover.
Quoting pottery:
Yoiks, Flood. Painfree after 8 yrs has got to be good.
Best wishes with the op.
You will get to be a real pain in the $%^ at airport security gates, buzzing and tweeping everytime you walk through! with bolts in your spine.


LOL...that will slow down my travel a bit, huh?
Quoting pottery:
Yoiks, Flood. Painfree after 8 yrs has got to be good.
Best wishes with the op.
You will get to be a real pain in the $%^ at airport security gates, buzzing and tweeping everytime you walk through! with bolts in your spine.


Actually the titanium doesn't go off at the airports. I am through them a couple times a month all over the world and not once have I been beeped. They just don't like my looks and wonder why there isn't an empty page on my passport.
Quoting Grothar:


Had a neck laminectomy in 2005. Titanium plate and screws and all. Had been pressing on my spinal cords, affecting my vision and walking, had migranes from Hades. After the operation, I had immediate relief. The best thing I ever did. Haven't had a headache since and can do more than before. The only thing I can not do is take out the garbage. I said the doctor told me not to drag anything to the front yard. lol Good Luck, Flood, it really isn't as bad as it sounds. You will be surprised at how quickly you recover.


My greatest concern was the loss of motion; my sister had a similar surgery some 10 years ago and lost 30% mobility. My surgeon says that if I lose 10% he'll be surprised; the loss should be more like 5% and that's something I can live with

Let me say something here: these posts prove my point about these online communities and about this one in particular. I am a man that most of you have never met and through the things that I have said and done here in the last 5 years many of you have become my friends and you are genuinely concerned about me and my welfare. This is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, one of the best online communities anywhere and Dr. Masters should be proud to have brought all of us together...thank you all...I will not soon forget the concern and friendship you have shown me!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thought for sure you would of used the 3 stooges emoticon Dan!


Half asleep brain not so quick now so off to bed I go.


p.s. was gonna use this one, but it just looked .... errrr, wrong


886. Well said, and True.
With that, I go to bed.
Keep Strong.
Quoting Floodman:


My greatest concern was the loss of motion; my sister had a similar surgery some 10 years ago and lost 30% mobility. My surgeon says that if I lose 10% he'll be surprised; the loss should be more like 5% and that's something I can live with

Let me say something here: these posts prove ,y point about these online communities and about this one in particular. I am a man that most of you have never met and through the things that I have said and done here in the last 5 years many of you have become my friends and you are genuinely concerned about me and my welfare. This is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, is one of the best online communities anywhere and Dr. Masters should be proud to have brought all of us together...thank you all...I will not soon forget the concern and friendship you have shown me!


Flood, this is for you in particular, but will apply to many others here, if you don't mind!

"A true friend is someone who thinks that you are a good egg even though he knows that you are slightly cracked."
Quoting PcolaDan:


Half asleep brain not so quick now so off to bed I go.


p.s. was gonna use this one, but it just looked .... errrr, wrong




Nite Pcola, don't stay away so long!!!!
touche Dan...with that I bid all of you a good night.
loop of ida... what i feel was the most amazing storm of the year. Note the eye over honduras... wow... the only time it had an eye due to the shear in november.

Link
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 16 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Cyclone Anja (950 hPa) located at 14.1S 68.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
40 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale-force winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 67.8E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 16.3S 66.7E - 65 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.3S 66.1E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.1S 68.9E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
ANJA remains a small size system and its intensity is stationary during last night. According to the last satellite imagery, Anja begun to turn southwestward

The system environment is still favorable with good low levels inflow and poor vertical upper levels wind shear and a rather good upper levels divergence poleward.

The efficiency of the polar outflow is weakening due to the westerly jet moving eastward. The steering flow is the mid tropospheric ridge south of the system which moves eastward. System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward then recurve southward before evacuating in the mid latitudes at medium range. On this forecasted track, the environmental conditions should remain good during the next 12 to 24 hours. Beyond the sytsem will track over cooler sea surface temperatures, south of 16S. Upper level vertical wind shear is expected to increase after 36 hours.
Taking in progress for Space Shuttle Atlantis.. weather looks good so far!
jetty pk was packed with campers ready to watch atlantis hope it works out
Good Morning.
Fantastic loop there, Winter123, of the entire region.
Strange stuff indeed.
I gotta bunker down here in Washington state were suppose to have one heck of a storm on our hands.....woohoo!! biggest gust tonight has hit 55mph not too bad
898. P451
Good Morning. 24 hour WV imagery of the ex-ida-nor'easter entity.



Not sure what to make of this anymore other than what a persistent feature it has been. I traced it's origins back to October 31st when we all first started watching a decaying front in the BOC and just generally disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean.

For those who missed it I put together a blog detailing the history of Ida by compiling loops and images I had posted during the event.

well doc what ya say 70 percent its done 30 percent we could still see something
901. beell
For any that are interested in my opinion, The remains of the Nor'easter still relatively stacked. A complete separation from the westerlies should be complete today. Leaving an isolated, weakening, cut-off low drifting to the east in a very hostile environment.

GFS still with the idea of leaving nothing behind at the surface to turn around and make another run at the east coast. Slowly of to the NE it goes. Another trough approaching the east coast from the west-just in case!
902. beell
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well doc what ya say 70 percent its done 30 percent we could still see something


What the heck, keep! I'll say it's over.
But won't know for sure until June of 2010!
Lightning show as storm strikes city


THIS lightning bolt off Bondi was one of 868 strikes that illuminated Sydney as a spectacular storm swept the city last night(Monday).

The gale followed a day of scorching temperatures, which reached 38.8C at Penrith.

"Although it was a mild storm it brought a lot of lightning with it," Chris Webb, of the NSW bureau of Meteorology, said. "Between 6.30 and 7.30 there were 498 cloud to ground strikes in a 30km radius from Sydney Airport. Another 370 bolts of cloud to cloud lightning were also recorded."

Earlier in the day firefighters battled a scrub and grass fire in West Hoxton, bringing it under control after initial fears that 50 homes were in danger.

Temperatures were expected to be back to the low 20s today.
looks like everything drifting more south now with whats left of the n'easter
MOrning Flood!

Hope all goes well - good luck with the surgery. Keep one thing in mind (on the up side of surgery...VERSED. :)

Quoting melwerle:
MOrning Flood!

Hope all goes well - good luck with the surgery. Keep one thing in mind (on the up side of surgery...VERSED. :)



Thanks, mel! So how are you? Everything good, I hope?
Quoting Floodman:


Thanks, mel! So how are you? Everything good, I hope?
If your surgery goes as well as my husband's did you most likely won't even need pain meds after about 2-3 days. He had his surgery on Thursday and was released from the hospital on Sunday and only took two the first day home and that was it. He said the worst part of it was the stiffness, not pain. Praying all goes well with you.
Good Morning Floodman... I was just erading back a few pages of posts. Good luck with the surgery.

And g_dspeed on recovery!
wonder what 2010 hurricane season will be like
Hey Flood,
Did you take a look at that link I sent ya? Forward it to NRAAmy too if you think it might help...

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If your surgery goes as well as my husband's did you most likely won't even need pain meds after about 2-3 days. He had his surgery on Thursday and was released from the hospital on Sunday and only took two the first day home and that was it. He said the worst part of it was the stiffness, not pain. Praying all goes well with you.


My surgeon is a little less optimistic about my need for pain meds, but I hope you're right...getting tired of my daily routine of two of these at this time, one of these at this time, etc...thtanks!
Quoting Dakster:
Good Morning Floodman... I was just erading back a few pages of posts. Good luck with the surgery.

And g_dspeed on recovery!


Thanks, Dak! hopefully I'll be back in here on Saturday or Sunday...LST (Mrs. Flood) will let you guys know on Thursday how things went...
Quoting Floodman:


Thanks, Dak! hopefully I'll be back in here on Saturday or Sunday...LST (Mrs. Flood) will let you guys know on Thursday how things went...


Hey if they give you some good pharmaceuticals... take em.. thats what they are for...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey if they give you some good pharmaceuticals... take em.. thats what they are for...


trust me, Orca, I have no fear of taking meds as prescribed...I have had days in the last year or so where they were what got me through the day
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey Flood,
Did you take a look at that link I sent ya? Forward it to NRAAmy too if you think it might help...



Ummm, Junky? That story was about spikes in gynecological surgery; what procedure were you thinking that me, a 6'4" man in his late forties was having done? LOL
Quoting Floodman:


trust me, Orca, I have no fear of taking meds as prescribed...I have had days in the last year or so where they were what got me through the day

Flood, you have mail.

I totally know how you feel with taking meds just to live
If and it's a big IF EX-Ida comes back, it certainly will be copld core, deja - vu for the East Coast.. Pretty much it won't and we can just go on with our lives lol
Per request...update includes damage reports and ongoing assessments regarding NorIda. Please understand situation is in flux-- more info may be available on State and local emergency management websites.
PDA: Preliminary Damage Assessments
IA: Individual Assistance
PA: Public Assistance

National Situation Update: Monday, November 16, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather

Northeast
Temperatures will cool across the northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front moves in, producing highs from the 40s in northern New England and upstate New York to the 60s in the Mid-Atlantic.

South
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas, Louisiana, eastern Texas, Mississippi and western Tennessee. Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will develop over much of Texas and Oklahoma. The front will slowly move east tomorrow and Wednesday, spreading scattered showers through Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.

Midwest
A low pressure system will move slowly across the Midwest today and Tuesday, with rainy and breezy conditions expected over the mid-Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Areas from Missouri to central Illinois and southern Iowa may see an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain. Snow or a rain/snow mixture is expected over parts of Kansas, southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

West
A cold front will move into the Northwest today and Tuesday, bringing significant moisture to Washington and Oregon. Heavy rain will target northwest Washington, causing possible river flooding in the Olympics and northern Cascades; snow in the higher elevations could cause avalanches. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet will be possible by Tuesday along the Cascade crest. Wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph can be expected along the immediate coast of Oregon and Washington (NOAA%u2019s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

NOAA Reports October Third Coolest on Record with Highest Precipitation

According to NOAA%u2019s State of the Climate report, October was the third coolest month on record for average temperatures across the contiguous United States. Below average temperatures were recorded in all regions except the Southeast. The October average temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees below the 20th Century average.

Preliminary data also indicates that October was the wettest month on record, reaching 4.15 inches, or 2.04 inches above the average between 1901 and 2001. This was the first month since December 2007 that no region in the United States recorded below normal precipitation.

East Coast Nor'Easter

* New Jersey EOC has returned to normal operations
* Governor has declared a State of Emergency for six coastal counties (Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth and Ocean Counties)
* Several hundred homes and about 50 to 100 businesses were affected by the storm, which also caused significant beach erosion and flooding along the Jersey Shore
* Joint IA and PA PDAs for seven counties are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, November 17; additional counties may be added later
* Virginia%u2019s Governor declared a State of Emergency
* Virginia EOC remains partially activated for possible hazmat issues (barrel recovery in some of the affected areas)
* LNO remains at the Virginia EOC
* Chief Medical Examiner has declared four fatalities due to the storm
* Power has been restored to the majority of the affected areas, with only about 300 outages remaining
* One shelter open in Norfolk City; population 50
* Alabama will begin PA PDAs for two counties on November 17
* Louisiana will begin IA and PA PDAs on November 17 for two parishes

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity

Wildfire Update

Note: Fire season is coming to an end - the National Interagency Coordination Center will issue reports only on Fridays unless there is significant activity.

%u2022 National Preparedness Level: 1
%u2022 National Fire Activity as of Friday, November 13, 2009
%u2022 Initial attack activity: Light (108 new fires)
%u2022 New large fires: 1
%u2022 Large fires contained: 1
%u2022 Uncontained large fires: 0
%u2022 States affected: AZ and MO (NIFC)

SUNDAY Nov. 15 SIT REPORT

Link

SATURDAY Nov. 14 SIT REPORT

Link

Add-on: DangNabIt. Will re-post on NEW BLOG. grrrrrr
921. P451
NEW BLOG





NEW BLOG





NEW BLOG