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Record rains and flooding swamp Rhode Island and Massachusetts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:58 PM GMT on March 31, 2010

Record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter have triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that has fallen on Providence, Rhode Island, this month is the most rain recorded in any month, besting the previous record of 15.38" set in October 2005. Blue Hill Observatory in SE Massachusetts also set a record for wettest month ever, with 18.79" (previous record: 18.78", August 1955.) Records extend back to 1905 and 1885 at the two sites. The Rhode Island all-time state record for heaviest precipitation in a month was smashed as well, thanks to the 19.62" observed this March at North Kingstown. The old state record was 16.70", set at North Foster in October 2005. Many locations in the Northeast recorded their wettest March ever, including New York City and Boston.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for the month of March. Image credit: NOAA.

From a historical perspective, river flooding in parts of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts is expected to rival or exceed the all-time record floods of August 1955, when Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit within one week of each other. Several rivers in the region that set their all-time flood heights just two weeks have set new records this week. It's pretty remarkable that we are having record rainfall and record flooding in the cold season month of March. It's much easier to set records in August, when there is much more moisture in the air available for record rains.

Here is a summary of the major flooding occurring, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

* Pawtuxet River in Rhode Island...flooding will exceed what occurred in middle March. Record-shattering flooding is forecast along the Pawtuxet River through Thursday. Records at the Cranston gauge date back to 1939.

* Blackstone River in Rhode Island...flooding at Woonsocket is forecast to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955. However...due to the heavier rains which have fallen below Woonsocket...flood impacts approaching the 1955 event may be realized.

* Charles River at Dover Massachusetts...near record flooding is forecast. This is expected to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955.

* Neponset River at Norwood Massachusetts...major flooding has already occurred...with a crest of 11.2 feet. This crest is well below the record crest of 14.65 feet which occurred in August 1955 with Connie and Diane.

* Sudbury at Saxonville Massachusetts...record flooding is forecast. This will be the worst flooding since the April 1987 flood.

While the storm responsible for the rains has moved out to sea, there will be a prolonged period of urban and small stream flooding...which should last for at least a couple of days. To keep track of the flood situation, use our wundermap with the USGS river layer turned on.

Severe weather season is here
Two tornadoes occurred near Charlotte, NC on Sunday, March 28, 2010. One of these twisters passed within a few miles of one of the FAA's high-resolution TDWR Doppler radars. Our tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has written an excellent post showing high-resolution images and animations of this tornado.

I'll have a new post on April Fool's Day.
Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Shiny new Blog!
The Neast is taking it on da chin for sure.
Yes! Nice in here at this moment! :) Wonderful weather we're having!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Well let's see!

Here is the answer to your question:

House of Representatives:
Democrats for: 152
Democrats against: 96
Republicans for: 138
Republicans against: 34

63% of Democrats in the house voted against
25% of Republicans in the house voted against


Senate:
Democrats for: 46
Democrats against: 21
Republicans for: 27
Republicans against: 6

46% of Democrats in the senate voted against.
22% of Republicans in the senate voted against.

YOUR ANSWER: THE REPUBLICANS PASSED THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION! If the Dems had the super majority they have today in both houses, with these ratios, the civil rights bill would have failed.

Listen man, take you own advice about stepping into time without a hat. Dems were all about segregation. And when it was time to pony up and finally realize that all men were equal and had equal rights under the law, the Dems passed the Welfare Act, literally taking these poor people who had been oppressed for centuries by Dems, and removing whatever motivation they would have to achieve the American dream. They suck on the teet...and Dems remind them that its Dems they have to thank for that teet. Stay lazy. Pop as many kids as you want...the government will take care of you now.

Geez...


Good post.
Thanks Dr. Masters! I didn't know the March rainfall had been that heavy in the northeast!
thanks for the new blog, and the link to Dr. Carver's post!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks Dr. Masters! I didn't know the March rainfall had been that heavy in the northeast!


Yeah, the Northeast and Florida have been getting hammered areas near Ocala, FL have had 14" this month I've personally had 10.6". No flooding here though but the lake and rivers are at summertime levels in C FL. Once the rainy season starts then we will really start seeing some flooding.
Wonder if we're going to end up with a record year rainfall-wise. It's pretty early for this kind of setup.....
Great weather here.. not so good for the folks up in NE and the norther Mid-Atlantic...

I remember the floods in Northern NJ back in 1984 - my dad says these are worse...
This really shows you why we shouldn't allow the Government to start drilling the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Blue Dots = Oil Platforms
Orange lines = Pipelines
Green = Land
Yellow polygon = FL Federal Waters



Most the pipelines you see are old and leak oil.

Surprised the whole Gulf isn't one big oil slick.
Thanks Doc!

Someone earlier today 451? made a comment about how all the storms seem to blowing up once into the Atlantic this year.. the NE just sucked them back in and got pounded..

I also enjoyed Doc Carvers post..
Quoting indianrivguy:
Thanks Doc!

Someone earlier today 451? made a comment about how all the storms seem to blowing up once into the Atlantic this year.. the NE just sucked them back in and got pounded..

I also enjoyed Doc Carvers post..


Thank the NAO setup! This is very common with this setup the differnece is we've had this for months instead of a few days.
Quoting StormChaser81:
This really shows you why we shouldn't allow the Government to start drilling the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Blue Dots = Oil Platforms
Orange lines = Pipelines
Green = Land
Yellow polygon = FL Federal Waters



Most the pipelines you see are old and leak oil.

Surprised the whole Gulf isn't one big oil slick.


The Government needs to leave the Gulf alone. I couldn't imagine going to the beach looking at an Oil Rig the whole time. Hopefully they won't make us like Texas.
Our Idiot Governor Charlie Crists has been poundering this for years.
firefox is posting for me now. WTH i only hit submit once.

Sorry for this everyone.
Thanks,Dr. Masters,it really has been a month like no other March I can remember.To me March is more famous for huge snowstorms.The East coast all winter,and now early spring have been plagued by these stalled storms.Wonder what this kind of pattern will mean for hurricane season if things don't change.
LOL!!! GUYS WE JUST GOT RAIN AND I AM HAPPY LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LOL!!! GUYS WE JUST GOT RAIN AND I AM HAPPY LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Did you get alot?
if the economy comes back as much as hoped prices should boom the world is using alot more fuel.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LOL!!! GUYS WE JUST GOT RAIN AND I AM HAPPY LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Was it WARM Rain...lol
Quoting StormChaser81:
This really shows you why we shouldn't allow the Government to start drilling the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Blue Dots = Oil Platforms
Orange lines = Pipelines
Green = Land
Yellow polygon = FL Federal Waters



Most the pipelines you see are old and leak oil.

Surprised the whole Gulf isn't one big oil slick.

Wow, that is sickening....
Quoting StormChaser81:



Was it WARM Rain...lol


LOL!!!!!This guy and his warm rain!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Did you get alot?


ENOUGH TO MAKE PUDDLES

Quoting StormChaser81:



Was it WARM Rain...lol


WELL IT FEEL WARMER THAN YESTERDAY lol
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL!!!!!This guy and his warm rain!

YES ME AND MY "WARM RAIN"
Oil drilling off Florida's coast

Link
Hello all! Decided to log on at work, anyone else on? Looks like the kids had early release today ^^.
I got almost 19 inches for the month of March,and most of that in the last half of the month.
Africa has been receiving below average rainfall as confirmed by positive OLR anomalies and % of normal rainfall precipitation estimates.


From the old blog:

Quoting CycloneOz:


Well let's see!

Here is the answer to your question:

House of Representatives:
Democrats for: 152
Democrats against: 96
Republicans for: 138
Republicans against: 34

63% of Democrats in the house voted against
25% of Republicans in the house voted against


Senate:
Democrats for: 46
Democrats against: 21
Republicans for: 27
Republicans against: 6

46% of Democrats in the senate voted against.
22% of Republicans in the senate voted against.

YOUR ANSWER: THE REPUBLICANS PASSED THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION! If the Dems had the super majority they have today in both houses, with these ratios, the civil rights bill would have failed.

Listen man, take you own advice about stepping into time without a hat. Dems were all about segregation. And when it was time to pony up and finally realize that all men were equal and had equal rights under the law, the Dems passed the Welfare Act, literally taking these poor people who had been oppressed for centuries by Dems, and removing whatever motivation they would have to achieve the American dream. They suck on the teet...and Dems remind them that its Dems they have to thank for that teet. Stay lazy. Pop as many kids as you want...the government will take care of you now.

Geez...


Check your math.

House of reps:
152 D for, 96 D against, 248 D total.
38% against, 62% for
138 R for, 34 R against, 168 R total.
20% against, 80% for

(290 for overall, 130 against overall, 69% for overall)

Senate:
46 D for, 21 D against, 67 D total.
31% against, 69% for
27 R for, 6 R against, 33 R total.
18% against, 82% for

(73 for overall, 27 against overall)

So, regardless of who has the majority, or when, the bill passes.

Please check your math before using it in an argument.
Quoting Drakoen:
Africa has been receiving below average rainfall as confirmed by positive OLR anomalies and % of normal rainfall precipitation estimates.




That could put a damper of tropical waves coming off Africa.
Quoting StormChaser81:


That could put a damper of tropical waves coming off Africa.


Yes, unless West Africa moistens up as some of the climate models suggest.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes, unless West Africa moistens up as some of the climate models suggest.


If it doesn't moisten up, how do the monsoons react when there is less moisture.

Do they still happen with not much thunderstorm activity or do they not get as far west as usually?
Quoting StormChaser81:


If it doesn't moisten up, how do the monsoons react when there is less moisture.

Do they still happen with not much thunderstorm activity or do they not get as far west as usually?

They get choked by SAL once over the Atlantic.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes, unless West Africa moistens up as some of the climate models suggest.


The Positive IOD should help increase precipitation over Africa.
Quoting StormChaser81:


If it doesn't moisten up, how do the monsoons react when there is less moisture.

Do they still happen with not much thunderstorm activity or do they not get as far west as usually?


Both, as you mentioned, are possible.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LOL!!! GUYS WE JUST GOT RAIN AND I AM HAPPY LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lucky you. Still none in East End.
2005 had major SAL outbreaks and, subsequently, more storms formed in the central an western Tropical Atlantic.
Quoting Drakoen:
Africa has been receiving below average rainfall as confirmed by positive OLR anomalies and % of normal rainfall precipitation estimates.




Drak, the Sahel doesn't get rainfall during the northern hemisphere winter. That map is a little misleading. Climatologically there is never any significant precipitation north of 9N over Africa between December and March. The average northern extent of any rainfall whatsoever in March is 10N. The Sahel region of western Africa that we care about for the Atlantic hurricane season is all north of 10N. At this time of year so little falls north of 10N that it's hard to even have an anomaly.

Using the Sahel Rainfall Index, I can't even find an anomaly during January, February, or March that is greater than 9 millimeters, positive or negative. The largest departure from normal was 8.4 millimeters in January, 2004. The average anomalies are under a couple of millimeters during the winter months. Things don't pick up until May, when precipitation from the ITCZ starts working its way up north of the 10N line. It is during the months of May through August that we monitor Sahel rainfall closely to see what impact it has on the wave train. We can't derive much from data this early, as again, there can't even really be an anomaly when there's nearly no rainfall to begin with climatologically. Even if there is an anomaly, it doesn't mean much.

Quoting Drakoen:
2005 had major SAL outbreaks and, subsequently, more storms formed in the central an western Tropical Atlantic.


That also explains the amount of land falling hurricanes that year.

You can really see how the SAL affected the formation in the Central & Eastern Atlantic and when the storms got out of the SAL and into the Caribbean they exploded.

Quoting Levi32:


Drak, the Sahel doesn't get rainfall during the northern hemisphere winter. That map is a little misleading. Climatologically there is never any significant precipitation north of 9N over Africa between December and March. The average northern extent of any rainfall whatsoever in March is 10N. The Sahel region of western Africa that we care about for the Atlantic hurricane season is all north of 12N. At this time of year so little falls north of 10N that it's hard to even have an anomaly.

Using the Sahel Rainfall Index, I can't even find an anomaly during January, February, or March that is greater than 9 millimeters, positive or negative. The largest departure from normal was 8.4 millimeters in January, 2004. The average anomalies are under a couple of millimeters during the winter months. Things don't pick up until May, when precipitation from the ITCZ starts working its way up north of the 10N line. It is during the months of May through August that we monitor Sahel rainfall closely to see what impact it has on the wave train. We can't derive much from data this early, as again, there can't even really be an anomaly when there's nearly no rainfall to begin with climatologically. Even if there is an anomaly, it doesn't mean much.



The SAL rain index is not that great, considering there are barely any doppler radars in that area. Most of the data probably was derived from satellite and that can be way off sometimes.
Quoting StormChaser81:


The SAL rain index is not the great, considering there are barely any doppler radars in that area. Most of the data probably was derived from satellite and that can be way off sometimes.


It doesn't really matter. There is more than enough data to prove that there is nearly no rainfall north of 10N over Africa during the northern hemisphere winter. That index is just an illustration of how no rainfall means the anomalies will either be small or non-existent.
This is the region of the Sahel we really care about, north of 15N according to Dr. Masters own illustration.



Link
Quoting Levi32:


It doesn't really matter. There is more than enough data to prove that there is nearly no rainfall north of 10N over Africa during the northern hemisphere winter. That index is just an illustration of how no rainfall means the anomalies will either be small or non-existent.


I see your point, but the air over the SAL can have high levels of moisture or low levels of moisture and that could aid or inhibit Tropical formation.
Quoting StormChaser81:


I see your point, but the air over the SAL can have high levels of moisture or low levels of moisture and that could aid or inhibit Tropical formation.


True, so, let's take a look at the moisture content of the atmosphere during this winter.

1000mb(near-surface) Specific Humidity for December-February 2009-10:



and here's up in the mid-troposphere, at 700mb:



You can see it was generally moist near the surface and a little drier aloft.

But, again, this does not matter much this early. May-August is when we really need to watch these things.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER PAUL (11U)
5:00 AM CST April 1 2010
=================================

At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Paul (998 hPa) located at 14.5S 136.1E or 50 kms east southeast of Numbulwar and 75 kms south southwest of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to continue moving east southeast towards the coast. The system is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday but there is a possibility that it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Friday if a tropical cyclone redevelops. Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
Quoting Levi32:


Drak, the Sahel doesn't get rainfall during the northern hemisphere winter. That map is a little misleading. Climatologically there is never any significant precipitation north of 9N over Africa between December and March. The average northern extent of any rainfall whatsoever in March is 10N. The Sahel region of western Africa that we care about for the Atlantic hurricane season is all north of 10N. At this time of year so little falls north of 10N that it's hard to even have an anomaly.

Using the Sahel Rainfall Index, I can't even find an anomaly during January, February, or March that is greater than 9 millimeters, positive or negative. The largest departure from normal was 8.4 millimeters in January, 2004. The average anomalies are under a couple of millimeters during the winter months. Things don't pick up until May, when precipitation from the ITCZ starts working its way up north of the 10N line. It is during the months of May through August that we monitor Sahel rainfall closely to see what impact it has on the wave train. We can't derive much from data this early, as again, there can't even really be an anomaly when there's nearly no rainfall to begin with climatologically. Even if there is an anomaly, it doesn't mean much.



Regardless, Africa has been relatively dry and has had more exposure to the sun as confirmed by the OLR than they normally do. Here's the mean rainfall that Africa gets according to climatology from 1983-2009:



Here is what was observed for this month:

Quoting Drakoen:


Regardless, Africa has been relatively dry and has had more exposure to the sun as confirmed by the OLR than they normally do. Here's the mean rainfall that Africa gets according to climatology from 1983-2009:



Here is what was observed for this month:



Well that may not be a good thing actually. A dry western Africa in the winter usually means the eastern Atlantic is dry as well, and that allows SSTs to warm.

Notice that lower-than-normal humidities over the tropical eastern Atlantic and west Africa have resulted in higher OLR, meaning less low-level clouds, which has contributed to allowing SSTs to warm so much in that area.

From Friday thru the next 7 days after the forecast calls for 85 to 90 with no rain but isolated seabreeze storms may start occuring later next week. This heat should really begin to warm the coastal waters around Florida. I tend to think that we will see below average water temps go by the wayside over the next couple of weeks. This pattern may mean an early start up to the rainy season across Florida. Long Range models are hinting at this and some of these models are indicating Tropical developement the 3rd week of May so get ready.
Quoting Levi32:


True, so, let's take a look at the moisture content of the atmosphere during this winter.

1000mb(near-surface) Specific Humidity for December-February 2009-10:



and here's up in the mid-troposphere, at 700mb:



You can see it was generally moist near the surface and a little drier aloft.

But, again, this does not matter much this early. May-August is when we really need to watch these things.


I agree with you 100%

I hope you plain on attending a school that offers a Meteorology degree.

I would hate to see you waste your weather knowledge.

Quoting StormChaser81:


I agree with you 100%

I hope you plain on attending a school that offers a Meteorology degree.

I would hate to see you waste your weather knowledge.



Be a good way for him to leave Alaska and forecast here in Florida.
Hmmm... I somehow goofed up the quote, hope this turns out:

Levi32 7:24 PM GMT on March 31, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Drakoen:
Africa has been receiving below average rainfall as confirmed by positive OLR anomalies and % of normal rainfall precipitation estimates.




Drak, the Sahel doesn't get rainfall during the northern hemisphere winter. That map is a little misleading. Climatologically there is never any significant precipitation north of 9N over Africa between December and March. The average northern extent of any rainfall whatsoever in March is 10N. The Sahel region of western Africa that we care about for the Atlantic hurricane season is all north of 10N. At this time of year so little falls north of 10N that it's hard to even have an anomaly.




Absolutely correct. Beginning in December the ITCZ has shifted far enough south that rains begin falling in southern Africa (ie. Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia) I lived in Zambia for several years and have experienced this first-hand. In mid-April the rain begins tapering off as the ITCZ begins to shift northwards across DR Congo, Tanzania, and Kenya.

For half of the year in the Sahel, they expect it to *not* rain. Likewise, from May through November it simply does not rain in southern Africa. I can't even describe how dry it becomes by November, in the depth of hot/dry season. Every square in of Zambia is burned by then, the landscape begins to look like a foreign planet - grey and charred and dirt brown.

The country of South Africa (including Lesotho and Swaziland) is the exception - it is far enough south that their weather is less dependent upon tropical convergence and more upon temperate latitude systems.
Oil rigs are not that noticable in the Gulf folks, they are well offshore and not an eye sore, nor do they leak all the time making the Gulf a giant oil slick. If you don't live near the beach dont worry about it, and if you do, get over it, it's more drama and hype about environmental crap that is nowhere near as bad as it looks or creates.
Also, Drak, I can't find the page where you got those maps, but the ones I'm looking at, also from the CPC, don't show any anomalies one way or the other over the winter desert north of 10N, which is expected. The 90-day anomalies aren't really that dry, especially in the west.



Climatological for the same period:

Quoting 47n91w:




Absolutely correct. Beginning in December the ITCZ has shifted far enough south that rains begin falling in southern Africa (ie. Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia) I lived in Zambia for several years and have experienced this first-hand. In mid-April the rain begins tapering off as the ITCZ begins to shift northwards across DR Congo, Tanzania, and Kenya.

For half of the year in the Sahel, they expect it to *not* rain. Likewise, from May through November it simply does not rain in southern Africa.

The country of South Africa (including Lesotho and Swaziland) is the exception - it is far enough south that their weather is less dependent upon tropical convergence and more upon temperate latitude systems.


I'm not worried about Africa's drought because the switch will be turned on there soon. Once the rains start get ready for some fierce tropical to roll across the region. Yes, you are correct this is perfectly normal for this time of year.
This diagram illustrates the deficit in the northwest Sahel region that you pointed out Levi:

Quoting StormChaser81:


I see your point, but the air over the SAL can have high levels of moisture or low levels of moisture and that could aid or inhibit Tropical formation.

Right. But if it is hitting a layer that is effectively devoid of moisture and acting as a "cap" on convection, tropical formation can't get off the ground.
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Hey Storm :)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Be a good way for him to leave Alaska and forecast here in Florida.


Haha, we shall see.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Brb.
Oil and gas isn't going away. It may phase out in time, but your looking at a century down the road
Wetlands loss linked to Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas pipelines in new study
By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
October 05, 2009, 9:46PM



Chevron Canals Dug thru the Se La. Wetlands

A new study for the federal Minerals Management Service concludes that the construction of pipelines related to oil and gas production in the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico "can cause locally intense habitat changes, thereby contributing to the loss of critically important land and wetland areas."



The report is part of ongoing research by the Minerals Management Service to understand the effects of the production of oil and gas in federally controlled Gulf waters.

Louisiana officials have long argued that the federal government should share a greater financial burden in restoring coastal wetlands and land areas because of the effects of such offshore development.

For the study, the authors used computer models to interpret satellite and other data, gauging the impacts of pipelines and navigation channels on coastal areas in Louisiana, Texas, Alabama and Mississippi. They also conducted more in-depth reviews of the effects of individual pipelines and man-made canals.

The study said that in Louisiana the Outer Continental Shelf pipelines covered 480 square miles of wetlands and land, and the navigation channels covered 137 square miles. That represents about 11 percent of the Louisiana coast.

The biggest impacts were found to be the greater loss of wetlands and land areas associated with Outer Continental Shelf-related pipelines and canals in Texas and Louisiana. The effects varied according to the construction methods used.

Dredging of flotation canals, for instance, caused far more damage than installing pipes using a push-pull method in ditches that were backfilled, or by using directional drilling to put the pipes underground.

A flotation canal, about 250 feet wide, is dredged with a drag line or backhoe mounted on a barge, with the pipeline placed in a ditch within the canal. Dredged material often is used to build spoil banks along the canal.

The less damaging push-pull method uses machinery on a barge to place the pipe into a 10-foot ditch within a canal usually no more than 125 feet across.

In the case of directional drilling, a third method, a pipe is placed into the ground beneath the marsh and soil surface, using a horizontal drilling rig. It requires removal of soil or marsh only at the point where the pipe enters and exits the ground.

The report found direct impacts from dredging and indirect impacts from construction of canals and spoil banks. They included altered flooding patterns for adjacent wetlands caused by the spoil banks or saltwater intrusion from the Gulf through the canals.

But the report also concluded that those impacts "can be greatly minimized or avoided with proper application of mitigation techniques."

The report also suggested that "the cumulative effect of hundreds of pipelines contributes to regional trends in land loss."

Pipeline mitigation should include the keeping of adjacent marsh areas at pre-construction heights and restoring local hydrology to pre-construction conditions, the report said.

The report also recommended that if more than one construction method is suitable, "the least damaging and most easily mitigated method can be used."

For navigation canals that are still being used for petroleum exploration, or by other boat traffic, the report concluded that direct impacts may be difficult to avoid. But keeping the canal banks in place and building wetlands with material dredged from the canals can mitigate damaging effects, the report said.

The report found a strong relationship between the time period when the canals and pipelines were built and the amount of space used for their construction to the amount of land loss occurring within 500 feet of individual pipelines and within 1,640 feet of navigation canals studied in Louisiana's delta and chenier plains.

In Louisiana, the loss was consistently higher near pipelines than the regional loss rates, the report said. The same pattern held true for navigation canals in Louisiana delta areas east of the Atchafalaya River.

The loss rates were highest soon after the pipelines or canals were built, and dropped off in later years for all areas, except the Texas chenier plain area east of Galveston Bay.

The highest rates of land loss within 500 feet of Outer Continental Shelf-related pipelines were highest in Louisiana and lowest in the Mississippi and Alabama coastal areas.

Higher wetland loss rates in Louisiana's delta are explained in part by the high density of pipelines located there, including a large number of open pipeline canals, combined with a high rate of subsidence -- sinking soils -- in that area, which is exacerbated by the lack of sediment reaching wetlands.

Lower wetland loss rates on Texas's barrier islands and the Mississippi and Alabama coastal area can be explained in part by the use of more environmentally friendly construction methods, the report said. In fact, it noted, the Mississippi and Alabama area experienced an 8 percent gain in wetlands from the 1950s to the 1990s.

For navigation canals, the greatest land loss rates occurred in the Texas chenier plain, with rates a bit lower in Louisiana and the lowest in Alabama and Mississippi.

. . . . . . .

Mark Schleifstein can be reached at mschleifstein@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3327.
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Hey, Storm! How's Orlando?
Quoting Levi32:


Haha, we shall see.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Brb.


Dont let it pass, start making plans for the future. You could find yourself setting in the NHC and not believing your there.

IM OUT
Quoting Drakoen:
Africa has been receiving below average rainfall as confirmed by positive OLR anomalies and % of normal rainfall precipitation estimates.




Well it is the dry season. And as for the anomolies, the sahel almost never gets rain in the wintertime anyway. For example, if normal rainfall averages 0.05" in the dry season at a particular place, and they get a rain shower in the dry season of 0.25" every five years, and the other years nothing, then 4 our of 5 years they will have a huge negative anomaly (0% of average rainfall) and the other year a huge positive anomaly (400% above normal rainfall) I think watching the west African monsoon in May and June will be more informative. If it goes forth vigorously, then it should be a low dust year. If the monsoon is weak, then it could be a dusty year.

But I think looking at rainfall departures from normal during the dry season is not very useful.

unless---

there is a strong correlation between the dry season and rainfall during the next monsoon. Which I don't know.
Quoting Jeff9641:
From Friday thru the next 7 days after the forecast calls for 85 to 90 with no rain but isolated seabreeze storms may start occuring later next week. This heat should really begin to warm the coastal waters around Florida. I tend to think that we will see below average water temps go by the wayside over the next couple of weeks. This pattern may mean an early start up to the rainy season across Florida. Long Range models are hinting at this and some of these models are indicating Tropical developement the 3rd week of May so get ready.


Thats quite far off for models to be predicting a Tropical Cyclone to form.. and a lot of uncertainty. Can I have a link to these long range models?
Some of the long range models are hinting at low coming off of Panama and organizing as it heads north come the middle of May. This solution maybe correct as the Panama area has been getting crushed with heavy rain lately. Everything seems to be come together for a active season and it will start early this year. Go focus on Africa if you want to because your wwasting your time this is normal for them the ITCZ will shift north over the next few weeks.
BTW, i'm not saying Africa gets a ton of rain in the northern hemisphere winter, but rather that there has been no move out of the drought over the past 90 days or the past 30 days.

Quoting Levi32:
Also, Drak, I can't find the page where you got those maps, but the ones I'm looking at, also from the CPC, don't show any anomalies one way or the other over the winter desert north of 10N, which is expected. The 90-day anomalies aren't really that dry, especially in the west.



Climatological for the same period:



Link
Quoting Jeff9641:
Some of the long range models are hinting at low coming off of Panama and organizing as it heads north come the middle of May. This solution maybe correct as the Panama area has been getting crushed with heavy rain lately. Everything seems to be come together for a active season and it will start early this year. Go focus on Africa if you want to because your wwasting your time this is normal for them the ITCZ will shift north over the next few weeks.


Sounds about right for a May system. Likely it would take a similar path to Barry in terms of strength and intensity. That would be incredible to have 4 straight years of tropical cyclones in May. They might have to extend the season to May 15th if it becomes much more common (2007 actually had TWO tropical cyclones form in May, Andrea and TD2 which became Barry the next day, although TD2 was not classified while active)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats quite far off for models to be predicting a Tropical Cyclone to form.. and a lot of uncertainty. Can I have a link to these long range models?


Alright you asked so here you go how about a hurricane for Florida's west coast the first of June.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
Hurricane Able raising Cain:



Our only major out of season.
Quoting StormW:


Good! I'm gonna try to post before I have to leave at 5:00. But, while I'm doing that, here is something to ponder...I had a short but decent conversation with Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State) about the upcoming season, and how I didn't like what I was seeing. I told him I like using the ECMWF Seasonal forecast and EUROSIP...and guess what...he also looks at and prefers the ECMWF. All the items Levi, Drak and I have been posting and discussing with all of you, are the same thing Phil has looked at as well.

Not official yet, but he also agreed that the upcoming season should be active.


Phil is great. He looks like 14 year old kid, but he's got a superior mind when it comes to tropical systems. Interesting to get a read on where he prefers to get his info...
This is an amusing story about Hurricane Able.

The story said the hurricane hit Florida (it didn't). And described it as a "small twister" (it wasn't)

Link
More about Hurricane Able--the first part is the seasonal summary. The special article devoted to Hurricane Able starts a little over 1/3 of the way down: "A Preseason Hurricane of Subtropical Origin" Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sounds about right for a May system. Likely it would take a similar path to Barry in terms of strength and intensity. That would be incredible to have 4 straight years of tropical cyclones in May. They might have to extend the season to May 15th if it becomes much more common (2007 actually had TWO tropical cyclones form in May, Andrea and TD2 which became Barry the next day, although TD2 was not classified while active)


I think it would only be necessary to do something like that when the AMO is in its warm phase, like now. However, June 1st is fine for when the AMO is in its cold phase.
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.
80+ in the GOM during the summer is not unusual. Last year, we had some temps in the high 80s and pushing 90, which was unusual.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I think it would only be necessary to do something like that when the AMO is in its warm phase, like now. However, June 1st is fine for when the AMO is in its cold phase.

I don't think it is necessary to extend the season at all, since any way you slice it, the season still holds over 95% of all tropical storms.
Hey everyone!

I just finished editing a new YouTube video. This video is a test of the roll-bar mounts of the new GoPro HD Hero cameras our XtremeHurricanes.com team are using for this upcoming hurricane season. As you can see from the image below which was captured from live video, this camera puts out 1280 X 720 HD with 170 degrees of non-distorted wide-angle. Awesome! :)

Quoting Jeff9641:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.


I'm talking the end of May.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
This is an amusing story about Hurricane Able.

The story said the hurricane hit Florida (it didn't). And described it as a "small twister" (it wasn't)

Link


They never mentioned once in the story that Florida was hit by the storm. When a word is placed in quotes, it isually is to point out a flaw or even indicate sarcasm, which I believe was their intent. I am sure they did not believe it was a "twister" Even then, the entire article was an example of high-brow sarcasm which was very popular in American journalism in the 1950's.
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.


Yep - that is kinda like saying, "If models verify, the sun will rise in the East tomorrow morning."
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm talking the end of May.


This year it might be closer to the 3rd week of June. The N GOM is several degrees cooler than normal, due to our exceptionally cold winter in the S Plains and the SE US, into FL.
Flood Victims Get Extra Time From IRS
BOSTON (WBZ) ―


The IRS announced Wednesday it is extending certain deadlines, including individual income tax returns, to taxpayers who have been victims of the storms and flooding that began March 12.

The deadline has been extended to May 11 for individual income tax returns, making income tax payments and making 2009 contributions to income retirement accounts, or IRAs.

To be eligible for the extension, people must live or do business in the counties which President Obama declared federal disaster areas. Those are Bristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and Worcester counties. more..
It's as if it's "snowing pollen" in the DFW, TX area. On a scale of 0 to 12, 12 the worst, we're at 11.7 today. It's literally "snowing" tree pollen in these S winds at 20 to 30 MPH! Ah, the joys of springtime!!
Those were very impressive images from the two twisters near Charlotte Dr.Masters. I was not even aware of tornadoes to my south because of a monster tornado further north in my local station's viewing area.


I live well to the north of Charlotte, closer to where a bigger one hit. A 140mph tornado hit the downtown city of High Point, North Carolina. All in all, there was a reported 6 twisters that hit our state that Sunday night.
It was actually the 26th anniversary of one of the biggest tornado outbreaks in NC that night..

Someone from Youtube captured 1 of the 2 twisters that hit the city of High Point.

Witness off of the interstate captures it..

Link


Below is what one portion of High Point looked like from above the next morning.

Link

Below is another video of some people running for cover in High Point as they capture the pending EF3 tornado. few bad words, but they were looking at an EF3 coming at them its kind of funny if you watch it all.

Link


This last video starts out bad but gets better as the twister develops in High Point. Insane near the end!

Link


I was kind of surprised this tornado did not make it on the blog when a weak one hit near Charlotte did??
Quoting Walshy:
Those were very impressive images from the two twisters near Charlotte Dr.Masters. I was not even aware of tornadoes to my south because of a monster tornado further north in my local station's viewing area.


I live well to the north of Charlotte, closer to where a bigger one hit. A 140mph tornado hit the downtown city of High Point, North Carolina. All in all, there was a reported 6 twisters that hit our state that Sunday night.
It was actually the 26th anniversary of one of the biggest tornado outbreaks in NC that night..

Someone from Youtube captured 1 of the 2 twisters that hit the city of High Point.

Witness off of the interstate captures it..

Link


Below is what one portion of High Point looked like from above the next morning.

Link

Below is another video of some people running for cover in High Point as they capture the pending EF3 tornado. few bad words, but they were looking at an EF3 coming at them its kind of funny if you watch it all.

Link


This last video starts out bad but gets better as the twister develops in High Point. Insane near the end!

Link


I was kind of surprised this tornado did not make it on the blog when a weak one hit near Charlotte did??


Excellent videos thanks Walshy!
Thankfully, nobody was killed. They were injuries. I can recall a family being picked up in a mobile home and being thrown into a pond. They did swim out okay but one had broken neck.

Few reports of baseball size hail, and 600 structures damaged by that tornado.

The city of High Point did declare state of emergency.

GoPro HD Hero Roll-Bar Mount Test on ATV
in preparation for XtremeHurricanes.com 2010 Season

Donors pledge $5.78 billion for Haiti earthquake aid

* From: AFP
* April 01, 2010 9:36AM


DONOR countries attending a major fundraiser for Haiti have pledged $US5.3 billion ($5.78 billion) for the next two years to put the quake-ravaged nation back on its feet, UN chief Ban Ki-moon has announced.

The tally far exceeds the target of $US3.8 billion ($4.14 billion) over the next 18 months that had been set by organisers of the conference.

"The (UN) member states and international partners have pledged $US5.3 billion ($5.78 billion) for the next two years and $US9.9 billion in total for the next three years and beyond,'' Dr Ban said.

"Friends of Haiti have acted far beyond expectations."

The aim of the conference was to help the battered country "build back better" after the 7.0-magnitude quake on January 12 levelled parts of its capital Port-au-Prince, killing at least 220,000 people and leaving 1.3 million homeless.

The biggest contributions came from the United States and the 27-member European Union.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, co-hosting the conference with Dr Ban, offered $US1.15 billion ($1.25 billion), saying the funds would go toward supporting Haiti's plan "to strengthen agriculture, energy, health, and security and governance".

The EU meanwhile pledged an additional $US1.6 billion ($1.74 billion), with France offering to disburse €180 million ($264.97 million) in 2010-2011 for food and the restoration of government authority.

Some 138 countries, international bodies such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, non-governmental organisations and representatives of Haitian expatriates took part in the one-day conference.

The $US3.8 billion ($4.14 billion) sought by organisers was meant to represent a first instalment on the estimated $US11.5 billion in aid needed for reconstruction over 10 years.
Hmm I'm a little confused now...

The radar estimates that Dr. Masters posted show a large area of 10-15 inch rain amounts through Massachusetts and Connecticut for the month of March, but the TRMM satellite rainfall estimates only show a maximum area of about 6 inches across Long Island and Connecticut, with only 4 inches tops in Massachusetts.

Which is more accurate? I would guess the radar is, but I really wasn't expecting to see this much of a difference between the two.

Radar-estimated Precipitation for March:



TRMM March Accumulated Rainfall:


Quoting Levi32:
Hmm I'm a little confused now...

The radar estimates that Dr. Masters posted show a large area of 10-15 inch rain amounts through Massachusetts and Connecticut for the month of March, but the TRMM satellite rainfall estimates only show a maximum area of about 6 inches across Long Island and Connecticut, with only 4 inches tops in Massachusetts.

Which is more accurate? I would guess the radar is, but I really wasn't expecting to see this much of a difference between the two.

Radar-estimated Precipitation for March:



TRMM March Accumulated Rainfall:



About the TRMM product:

"The browse images and data show the global monthly accumulated rainfall [mm/month]. However, the standard products of PR and "TRMM and Others Combined" only include the monthly mean rain rate [mm/hour]. Therefore, we also calculate and include the monthly accumulated rainfall of those products in the data set for intercomparison of those rainfall products. In addition, the monthly mean of "TRMM and Others Combined" were derived from all pixels regardless of rainfall existence. On the other hand, pixels in which rainfall exists were used for calculation of the PR monthly mean value."

And one has to expect that it doesn't see all rain, of course, as it is not a geostationary satellite.

Probably okay for relative comparisons from one location to another and not so good for actual total rainfall.

More details: http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/TRMM/imgdt/L3_data/readme.htm
Quoting Bordonaro:
It's as if it's "snowing pollen" in the DFW, TX area. On a scale of 0 to 12, 12 the worst, we're at 11.7 today. It's literally "snowing" tree pollen in these S winds at 20 to 30 MPH! Ah, the joys of springtime!!

Achoo!

Yeah. We have pollen "drifts" on the ground in SE LA in the piney woods, currently.

Sniffle.
Quoting atmoaggie:

About the TRMM product:

"The browse images and data show the global monthly accumulated rainfall [mm/month]. However, the standard products of PR and "TRMM and Others Combined" only include the monthly mean rain rate [mm/hour]. Therefore, we also calculate and include the monthly accumulated rainfall of those products in the data set for intercomparison of those rainfall products. In addition, the monthly mean of "TRMM and Others Combined" were derived from all pixels regardless of rainfall existence. On the other hand, pixels in which rainfall exists were used for calculation of the PR monthly mean value."

And one has to expect that it doesn't see all rain, of course, as it is not a geostationary satellite.

Probably okay for relative comparisons from one location to another and not so good for actual total rainfall.

More details: http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/TRMM/imgdt/L3_data/readme.htm


Yeah....I guess it would do ok for the anomalies, if they are based on TRMM's own climatology, which is only since 1998 so it's not a great base period yet. I've been trying to figure out exactly how reliable satellite measurements are, especially the ones like Precipitation where continuous temporal observation is needed to make it accurate.


Sunspot Update - Both Sunspots 1057 in the north and 1059 in the south remain quiet. There is only a small chance for C-Class flares.

Farside CME - A CME took place Tuesday off the farside of the sun. You can see the cloud billow away from both the Southeast and Northwest Limbs. A photo is below and click HERE to view the latest Lasco movie showing the explosion.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Achoo!

Yeah. We have pollen "drifts" on the ground in SE LA in the piney woods, currently.

Sniffle.


Being located in North Central TX we are so fortunate to get the pollens from everything from A to Z. Yesterday, the Pollen Count was over 3700 grains/cubic meter of air, which is pretty close to the highest we get here.

For me, it's not an issue, yet, I mean, as only certain pollen types bug me, usually in late Spring. Everything is coated with a light green/light brown film each and every day. I feel bad, there are 6.5 million people in the DFW, TX Metro and hundreds of thousands suffer real bad each year!

Today's Pollen Count was just shy of 3000 grains per cubic meter of air:
Quoting Grothar:


They never mentioned once in the story that Florida was hit by the storm. When a word is placed in quotes, it isually is to point out a flaw or even indicate sarcasm, which I believe was their intent. I am sure they did not believe it was a "twister" Even then, the entire article was an example of high-brow sarcasm which was very popular in American journalism in the 1950's.


Actually the article's headline, with all punctuation included:

Wrong Time, Wrong Way Hurricane Hits Florida No quotation marks. And no quotation marks around "twister" either.

Unless you are being sarcastic yourself of course :)

What's Norwegian for sarcastic anyway?
Good Evening all!

I was browsing the web and I came across "the sun", lol. After examining closely sunspots 1057 and 1059 appear to be flaring up, hmmmm, maybe something to watch.



In other news, I was watching something online and there was this prediction of at least 1 hurricane impacting Florida, fact or fiction, please hit me back with your thoughts concerning Florida impacting hurricanes in 2010.

-MiamiHurricanes09
My 2010 Tropical Outlook:

19 Names Storms

7 Hurricanes

4 Major Hurricanes.

- MSNBC did a quite startling article that said "15 of which named storms would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land."

Below is the link to the article:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My 2010 Tropical Outlook:

19 Names Storms

7 Hurricanes

4 Major Hurricanes.

- MSNBC did a quite startling article that said "15 of which named storms would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land."

Below is the link to the article:


That's a direct quote from Joe Bastardi's hurricane forecast.

Link
Quoting Levi32:


That's a direct quote from Joe Bastardi's hurricane forecast.

Link
Oh, I didn't notice, I got it from MSNBC, that is the one I quoted and the one I did the link to. Apart from that it says "extreme" 2010 hurricane season. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration, don't you think?
MSNBC Link: Link
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, I didn't notice, I got it from MSNBC, that is the one I quoted and the one I did the link to. Apart from that it says "extreme" 2010 hurricane season. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration, don't you think?


I don't think so, but it's a little early to make a case for that yet in my opinion.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think so, but it's a little early to make a case for that yet in my opinion.
I agree, but then again we are only about 2 months away. There are predictions of up to 20 named storms which is a lot compared to the record breaking 28 in 2005.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Well let's see!

Here is the answer to your question:

House of Representatives:
Democrats for: 152
Democrats against: 96
Republicans for: 138
Republicans against: 34

63% of Democrats in the house voted against
25% of Republicans in the house voted against


Senate:
Democrats for: 46
Democrats against: 21
Republicans for: 27
Republicans against: 6

46% of Democrats in the senate voted against.
22% of Republicans in the senate voted against.

YOUR ANSWER: THE REPUBLICANS PASSED THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION! If the Dems had the super majority they have today in both houses, with these ratios, the civil rights bill would have failed.

Listen man, take you own advice about stepping into time without a hat. Dems were all about segregation. And when it was time to pony up and finally realize that all men were equal and had equal rights under the law, the Dems passed the Welfare Act, literally taking these poor people who had been oppressed for centuries by Dems, and removing whatever motivation they would have to achieve the American dream. They suck on the teet...and Dems remind them that its Dems they have to thank for that teet. Stay lazy. Pop as many kids as you want...the government will take care of you now.

Geez...


4

"Good post."


Jeez Louise, your polictical history is about as good as your climatology.

The southern Democrats were politicians who did not want to be associated with the party of Abraham Lincoln. For example, in BR they had a Democrat representative around that time named John Rarick. A little tidbit on this character:

"Rarick quickly compiled a very conservative voting record, even by Louisiana Democratic standards. According to one scoring method, published in the American Journal of Political Science,[6] Rarick was the second most conservative Democrat of either chamber of Congress between 1937 and 2002.[7] In a period of four years, 1971–1974, the American Conservative Union gave Rarick a perfect score of 100 three times, and a score of 91 once (in 1973).[8] He was also a member of the pro-segregation White Citizens' Council. He often spoke at events sponsored by the anticommunist John Birch Society.[9]" -- Wikipedia

Now Back to the Future.

All the politicians from the south since then with views similar to Rarick are now in the Republican party.
Any updates on ENSO/ENSO maps?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, I didn't notice, I got it from MSNBC, that is the one I quoted and the one I did the link to. Apart from that it says "extreme" 2010 hurricane season. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration, don't you think?


I think "extreme" aptly defines a season of 16-18 storms, which Bastardi is forecasting. There have only been 4 seasons since 1900 with more than 16 named storms (correct me if I'm wrong), so that is definitely a rare class. So based on JB's forecast, he could define it as "extreme" and I think that's an appropriate word, especially since he's forecast 7 U.S. landfalls as well.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Any updates on ENSO/ENSO maps?




From the new Australian ENSO Wrap-up:

Summary: El Nino breakdown resumes

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool.




OLR is leveling off for the first time since last November:



And the trade winds are beginning to resume a normal easterly regime:



All these things point towards a decaying El Nino.
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.
Quoting Jeff9641:
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.


What is this Panama low you keep talking about....where are you seeing this...the CFS? Lol. We don't need to be concerned about a model run predicting a tropical storm 2 months away.
Quoting Jeff9641:
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.


What model might that be?
Quoting Jeff9641:
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.


Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.
Levi, I like it when you post links to the source of your graphics. I noticed you did that in post 112 except for some. Posting the actual links will help your fellow bloggers and cut down on the number of times you have to post what they can look up themselves.

Just a suggestion. Have a nice day.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


What model might that be?


I know where he got it lol....

CFS 1560-hour forecast everyone on the SE coast better prepare! Lol.

113

Get used to seeing a low over Panama. It is almost always there. Almost nothing ever comes of it.
Except in the 1560 hour GFS. Ow!
Quoting Chucktown:


Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.


Really, that's funny because I'm the only who can get a forecast halfway right on a consistant basis. Maybe you should take notes! When I say there bad weather coming it comes maybe not as bad as I predicted but it happens like the tornado in the Miami area on Monday.
Quoting bappit:
Levi, I like it when you post links to the source of your graphics. I noticed you did that in post 112 except for some. Posting the actual links will help your fellow bloggers and cut down on the number of times you have to post what they can look up themselves.

Just a suggestion. Have a nice day.


Yeah, I know. I don't usually take the time (it takes a whole lot longer typing up all the html), especially when I'm posting multiple graphics and I want to respond promptly to a post. If someone asks me for a link I will give it....too time-consuming otherwise. My blog entries always have links for the graphics though.
Quoting bappit:
Except in the 1560 hour GFS. Ow!


I never said this would happen but indications are something of this nature MAY OCCUR.
Quoting Levi32:


I know where he got it lol....

CFS 1560-hour forecast everyone on the SE coast better prepare! Lol.



I looked at the CFS before I asked him. But I had to ask because I didn't see a system impacting Florida, like he claims. Plus... You can't see Panama using that website.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Really, that's funny because I'm the only who can get a forecast halfway right on a consistant basis. Maybe you should take notes! When I say there bad weather coming it comes maybe not as bad as I predicted but it happens like the tornado in the Miami area on Monday.


I visit the Storm Prediction Center website every day, sometimes more when there is a chance and I can read the severe weather outlook Day 5 just like you.
Quoting Chucktown:


Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.


What a TURKEY to say I constantly berate this blog I'm not even near as close to being as bad as some of you on here.
Quoting Chucktown:


Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.

There is a lot of truth to that Chucktown. The atmosphere is dynamic, so many variables are in the equation everyday, especially in the temperate zones around the world. To make any prediction, so far in advance is not a real good idea. The El Nino may be in full retreat by summer, but there are too many variables to make any reasonable forecast!

And Jeff if your right, I like my crow well done!!
lots of time to see what will be
still have to get the first wave which is about two weeks away
normally by mid april you start to see the first of them making there way
forecasts of things months ahead mean nothing at the moment all but a shot in the dark
Quoting Bordonaro:

There is a lot of truth to that Chucktown. The atmosphere is dynamic, so many variables are in the equation everyday, especially in the temperate zones around the world. To make any prediction, so far in advance is outlandish. The El Nino may be in full retreat by summer, but there are too many variables to make any reasonable forecast!


I never said this will happen. I said there are indications! Thanks buddy as full on assualt is on me tonight.
Quoting Jeff9641:


What a TURKEY to say I constantly berate this blog I'm not even near as close to being as bad as some of you on here.


Yea, but I get paid for my "poor" forecasts.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I looked at the CFS before I asked him. But I had to ask because I didn't see a system impacting Florida, like he claims. Plus... You can't see Panama using that website.


Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I never said this will happen. I said there are indications! Thanks buddy as full on assualt is on me tonight.


No Jeff, I think your a great blogger, I am not trying to attack you. I think any forecast past 7-10 days is difficult, we as humans just cannot put all the variables into a computer and come up with a consistent accurate forecast!

Lord knows I am not a meteorologist, and when it comes to Tropical forecast, I rank around -0- in my guesstimates. I do better with severe weather, as I live in Arlington, TX, Tornado Alley USA!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lots of time to see what will be
still have to get the first wave which is about two weeks away
normally by mid april you start to see the first of them making there way
forecasts of things months ahead mean nothing at the moment all but a shot in the dark


Well actually, based on Weather456's observations of the first tropical wave from 2004-2009, the first true one has been coming off in early-mid May.



2009 isn't on the graphic, but the first tropical wave that year came on May 13th.
Howdy, this was kinda cool :)



From http://spaceweather.com/

And about Iridescence in lenticular clouds -- use the buttons on the top right to see more on this link, the fogbows are really neat >>>

L8R
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but I get paid for my "poor" forecasts.


We'll I'm educated in my half right forecast. There is much more to weather than reading maps it's about understanding what causes weather patterns to develope and in return develope a forecast as result of developing weather patterns.
Quoting Levi32:


Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.


Thank you Levi, well said.
Quoting Bordonaro:


No Jeff, I think your a great blogger, I am not trying to attack you. I think any forecast past 7-10 days is difficult, we as humans just cannot put all the variables into a computer and come up with a consistent accurate forecast!

Lord knows I am not a meteorologist, and when it comes to Tropical forecast, I rank around -0- in my guesstimates. I do better with severe weather, as I live in Arlington, TX, Tornado Alley USA!


No buddy, I thank you for sticking with me. I think your much better than me anyway. I just hate when people attack me for speaking what I believe he should attack JB because he's on the same page.
Quoting Chucktown:


Thank you Levi, well said.


No hard feelings I just feel this is a potential scenario.
TRMM pass of former Tropical Cyclone Paul, still drenching the Northern Territory of Australia with copious amounts of rain. This pass was from 16:00UTC, which is about 10 hours old now.



TRMM 7-day rainfall accumulations show over 2 feet of rain has fallen over parts of the Northern Territory during the past week.

Quoting Bordonaro:


No Jeff, I think your a great blogger, I am not trying to attack you. I think any forecast past 7-10 days is difficult, we as humans just cannot put all the variables into a computer and come up with a consistent accurate forecast!

Lord knows I am not a meteorologist, and when it comes to Tropical forecast, I rank around -0- in my guesstimates. I do better with severe weather, as I live in Arlington, TX, Tornado Alley USA!


Your severe wx chances are looking good in a couple of days.
Quoting Jeff9641:


No hard feelings I just feel this is a potential scenario.


No hard feelings, but people do come to this site when "it hits the fan" during hurricane season and we can't cry wolf. Everyone on here is equally entitled to predict what may happen, but sometimes when a forecast that just seems a bit too crazy to make, ya just gotta say something.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your severe wx chances are looking good in a couple of days.




here is day 3 outlook
Quoting Levi32:


Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.



LOL... I agree 100%.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER PAUL (11U)
11:00 AM CST April 1 2010
=================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Paul (998 hPa) located at 14.8S 136.8E or 130 kms east southeast of Numbulwar and 110 kms south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move south towards the coast during Thursday. The system is no longer expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.

Cyclone Watch Update
======================
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt, has been cancelled.

This is the final tropical cyclone advice on this system
Here we go....we are now touching 2003 and are poised to pass it and set a 9-year high for arctic sea ice for this time of year.



And look how close we are to the long-term average now. We are gaining ice instead of losing like we are supposed to this time of year, in part due to the negative AO.

What's the earliest troll formation on record?
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but I get paid for my "poor" forecasts.


So just because someone pays you, that definitely makes you "better"? There are a lot of people who do things strictly as a hobby who are probably better than people who get paid for the same thing (for example - cooking, photography, sewing, gardening...you get the idea). Truthfully, I'd probably trust forecasts of some on this blog more than I do from my own local TV mets.
Quoting Seastep:
What's the earliest troll formation on record?

jan 1
Quoting Levi32:
Here we go....we are now touching 2003 and are poised to pass it and set a 9-year high for arctic sea ice for this time of year.



And look how close we are to the long-term average now. We are gaining ice instead of losing like we are supposed to this time of year, in part due to the negative AO.




Yup, but the question will come as to the age of the ice, and the relevance of such and the impact of the wind with respect to the older ice :)



In my humble opinion, the global average is more appropriate to watch. Cycles happen!

The see / saw >>>>
145. Levi32

That's not possible. Supposed to be gone by, what, 2015? That's just off the top of my head but is irrelevant.... close enough.

That being said, seems to me that heat is not necessarily where I'd like it to be right about now.

Would rather see that trend in, say, November.
Quoting Ossqss:



Yup, but the question will come as to the age of the ice, and the relevance of such and the impact of the wind with respect to the older ice :)



In my humble opinion, the global average is more appropriate to watch. Cycles happen!

The see / saw >>>>


Indeed :)

We're back up close to normal globally at the moment.

Greyelf - Chucktown is a good guy from my experience. His analysis enters the equation for me.
Quoting Seastep:
What's the earliest troll formation on record?


This is one of the earliest posts of the earliest trolls that we ever had(STORMTOP). This is from 2005 when the season was just starting to kick and get worrysome. Emily was a Cat 4 in the Caribbean at this time. Notice what his forecast was and what really happened.

100. STORMTOP 3:52 PM AKDT on July 17, 2005

THIS HURRICANE IS DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AND TAKING MORE OF A NORTH TRACK...YOU CAN SEE THE POSITIONS IN THE LAST 4 ADVISORIES.....EMILY LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG WOULD MISS THE YUCATAN AND STAY OVER WATER BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN..NOW ANOTHER FACTOR IS AFFECTING EMILY UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER CAUSING THE TEMPORARY SLOW DOWN OF EMILY....I STILL STICK TO MY FORECAST THE HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND THE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND WILL NUDGE EMILY NW AND THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A COLD FRONT SET TO COME DOWN TO ARKANSAS..THIS WILL GIVE EMILY A GREAT CHANCE TO MOVE STRAIGHT NW OR NNW AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL GO UP ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LA COAST MONDAY NIGHT...sTORMtOP


Man....I've been reading some of the old blogs. I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.
after this summer ice extend will be the lowest of all just because ice extend is in a rebuilding phase most is first year ice or as my grandfather would call it slop ice mostly slush fast melting quick to form fast to thaw
LOL. Yes.

Here's my ignore list... and I believe they are all the same individual.

PORTCHARLOTTE72
apocalyps
apocalyps2
Randrewx
Good point KOTG. But still...
157. xcool
:)
This is how much fun we used to have. We were so insane lol. I miss those guys.
Quoting Greyelf:


So just because someone pays you, that definitely makes you "better"? There are a lot of people who do things strictly as a hobby who are probably better than people who get paid for the same thing (for example - cooking, photography, sewing, gardening...you get the idea). Truthfully, I'd probably trust forecasts of some on this blog more than I do from my own local TV mets.


Actually I was proving just the opposite. Even as an accredited met, my forecasts are not always correct. Like I said before, its sad, but our consultants are more interested on how we look versus how accurate our forecasts are.
I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.

Hope this reminder of an old buddy helps you feel better, Levi.

Where is hawkeye? Loved his dry humor. Fit his avatar to a T.

Not sure if you remember, but I lived in Anchorage. 6-9 grades.
Report: Koch Industries outspends Exxon Mobil on climate and clean energy disinformation


In a must-read report, Greenpeace details how Koch Industries has “become a financial kingpin of climate science denial and clean energy opposition,” spending over $48.5 million since 1997 to fund the anti-science disinformation machine. Brad Johnson has the story.

Climate Progress and the Wonk Room have long detailed the role of the billionaire brothers of Koch Industries, Charles and David Koch, in destroying American prosperity. Their pollution-based fortunes have fueled a network of right-wing ideologues, from McCain mouthpiece Nancy Pfotenhauer to loony conspiracy theorist Christopher Monckton. In public, the Kochs like to burnish their reputations by buying museum and opera halls.

In private, however, they’ve outspent Exxon Mobil to fund organizations of the climate denial machine, as Greenpeace details in a new report:

Although Koch intentionally stays out of the public eye, it is now playing a quiet but dominant role in a high-profile national policy debate on global warming. Koch Industries has become a financial kingpin of climate science denial and clean energy opposition. This private, out-of-sight corporation is now a partner to Exxon Mobil, the American Petroleum Institute and other donors that support organizations and front-groups opposing progressive clean energy and climate policy. In fact, Koch has out-spent Exxon Mobil in funding these groups in recent years. From 2005 to 2008, Exxon Mobil spent $8.9 million while the Koch Industries-controlled foundations contributed $24.9 million in funding to organizations of the climate denial machine.

This report, “Koch Industries: Secretly Funding the Climate Denial Machine” documents roughly 40 climate denial and opposition organizations receiving Koch foundation grants in recent years, including:

– More than $5 million to Americans for Prosperity Foundation (AFP) for its nationwide “Hot Air Tour” and “Regulation Reality Tour” campaigns to spread misinformation about climate science and oppose clean energy and climate legislation.

– More than $1 million to the Heritage Foundation, a mainstay of misinformation on climate and environmental policy issues.

– Over $1 million to the Cato Institute, which disputes the scientific evidence behind global warming, questions the rationale for taking climate action, and has been heavily involved in spinning the recent ClimateGate smear campaign.

– $800,000 to the Manhattan Institute, which has hosted Bjorn Lomborg twice in the last two years. Lomborg is a prominent media spokesperson who challenges and attacks policy measures to address climate change.

– $365,000 to Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment (FREE) which advocates against taking action on climate change because warming is “inevitable” and expensive to address.

– $360,000 to Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy (PRIPP) which supported and funded “An Inconvenient Truth…or Convenient Fiction,” a film attacking the science of global warming and intended as a rebuttal to former Vice-President Al Gore’s documentary. PRIPP also threatened to sue the US Government for listing the polar bear as an endangered species.

– $325,000 to the Tax Foundation, which issued a misleading study on the costs of proposed climate legislation.

The blockbuster report covers the role of Koch’s dirty network in promoting the ClimateGate smear campaign, pushing junk science about polar bears, fueling supposedly independent Spanish and Danish studies that attacked green jobs, and selling a pack of lies about the costs of climate legislation.


Quoting Seastep:
Where is hawkeye? Loved his dry humor. Fit his avatar to a T.

Not sure if you remember, but I lived in Anchorage. 6-9 grades.


Yeah. And Hawk had a great knowledge of tropical meteorology. At some point after 2005 he and others including myself left this blog entirely due to the craziness and hung out together in Bob's blog. We had some amazing discussions in there. We got at least 100 times the work done in there that this blog was at that time lol. I missed the height of last year's hurricane season so I don't know if it still gets just as crazy or if so many have been banned that it's calmer than it used to be.

Most of the old gang is either gone or just doesn't see a need to post on here anymore. They just lurk from time to time. You'll see some of them re-surface on Bob's blog if he happens to post anything like he did recently.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after this summer ice extend will be the lowest of all just because ice extend is in a rebuilding phase most is first year ice or as my grandfather would call it slop ice mostly slush fast melting quick to form fast to thaw

Ice extend doesn't present the current state of ice melt. You need to look at ice-volume.
Man....I've been reading some of the old blogs. I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol. Levi32

I found GulfScotsman entertaining.
(caricature of the drunken sailor), at least he played that role even if he became a big abusive at times...and went over the top.
I find the characters on this blog as interesting as many I've met in real life.
By the way, I think Jeff Masters must like you Levi, for your tenacity and willingness to study. You are also good at telling others what is going on.
Just decide what you're going to do and go with it. Not everyone will ever agree with you anyway, so you might as well do what your conscience dictates.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.

Hope this reminder of an old buddy helps you feel better, Levi.



Lol Maryland.
LOL - do I have to put you back on drg? I do temporaries, depending. Good debate going on the topic and wasted space from crap?

164's and I'm all good.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after this summer ice extend will be the lowest of all just because ice extend is in a rebuilding phase most is first year ice or as my grandfather would call it slop ice mostly slush fast melting quick to form fast to thaw


Yeah, this summer will likely dip below normal again, but the fact that the winters are holding their own does mean something, and it will be worth watching as we head into a La Nina this winter, which should translate to more sea ice overall during the following 2-3 years.
I like JFV overall.
Quoting Levi32:


Lol Maryland.


:) BTW, last season was ONLY interesting for meteorologists, really. You've never heard so much whining about what a dead hurricane season it was.

Personally, Hurr. Bill scared me plenty enough...that was just too close for comfort!
The most memorable part of last hurricane season was Ike posting "More Nothing" every day from the NWS site and Patrap posting his "Nuthin" cartoons. That pretty much summed it up. Then there was Weather456 keeping everything going and interesting with his analysis of what little there was going on. I think we exhausted him with that. He really was a hero last year. He even gave us a tour of the Antilles Islands. And this year he's having a baby!
Quoting Chicklit:
Man....I've been reading some of the old blogs. I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol. Levi32

I found GulfScotsman entertaining.
(caricature of the drunken sailor), at least he played that role even if he became a big abusive at times...and went over the top.
I find the characters on this blog as interesting as many I've met in real life.
By the way, I think Jeff Masters must like you Levi, for your tenacity and willingness to study. You are also good at telling others what is going on.
Just decide what you're going to do and go with it. Not everyone will ever agree with you anyway, so you might as well do what your conscience dictates.


Oh yeah it's been downright entertaining on here at times.

Well thanks Chicklit, but I can't imagine the doctor having any fondness for me lol. I will indeed continue to find my own way....I don't care much for following the consensus just because it's the consensus. We'll all keep learning more and hopefully get closer to the truth.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


:) BTW, last season was ONLY interesting for meteorologists, really. You've never heard so much whining about what a dead hurricane season it was.

Personally, Hurr. Bill scared me plenty enough...that was just too close for comfort!


Lol yeah I bet, and now that I think about it that's exactly why there were probably no trolls either. They will come out if there's a big storm threatening the U.S. or an active season getting underway.
Levi32, intelligent discussion is interesting!
Quoting Seastep:
I like JFV overall.

More than one of us missed him compared to the GW/CC bickering.
Nuthin's Loved it!
Quoting Chicklit:
The most memorable part of last hurricane season was Ike posting "More Nothing" every day from the NWS site and Patrap posting his "Nuthin" cartoons. That pretty much summed it up. Then there was Weather456 keeping everything going and interesting with his analysis of what little there was going on. I think we exhausted him with that. He really was a hero last year. And this year he's having a baby!


I know! I'm happy for him :) He will be sorely missed though. He had an amazing knowledge of tropical waves and how to analyze them over Africa. That was his biggest strength.
JFV had a "kick me" sign on his back.
I'll admit he lost me when he plagiarized someone else's forecast.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

More than one of us missed him compared to the GW/CC bickering.


Oh what I'd give to have another fight with Stormtop instead of an AGW argument lol. I actually really enjoyed beating up trolls. If I wasn't caught up in being too immature, I could sometimes tie them up so tight they couldn't think of anything to say. Kept things interesting....

Another guy I remember is Lefty420, but I can't quite recall how much of an expert he was on the tropics. I remember he and Stormtop were arch-enemies and argued constantly, but how much accurate info was in those arguments, I'm not sure. I'll have to look that up and see. One thing I do know, is that he had very poor grammar lol. Stormtop and his capitalz wasn't far behind him either.
Last time I saw Stromtop on here he was in the Bahamas having a mohito.
I seriously think we're in for another 2009.

I'm going with 5.5 for SSIG's scale.

So I don't jinx it, though, 20/10/5 is my prediction, contrary to the 5.5.

Last year for me, off the top of my head was 16/5/2.
Levi, Lefty's a hoot! He came in briefly this past winter with pics of himself in one of the many weird snowstorms...it was fun to get to meet him, as I was not lucky enough to be here in the good ol' bad ol' bad hurricane days of '05 etc.

Yeah, Chicklit, I don't understand at all the plagiarizing on a blog instead of just giving a credit or attribution...shoot, it's easy enough, we all do it for research papers, and we're not going for a Ph.D. here -- just trying to get accurate info out and maybe have some good discussions and exercise some brain cells.
Seastep, you are so totally wrong.
This year is going to be a humdinger, by all indications. The Caribbean needs the rain.
Quoting Levi32:


Man....I've been reading some of the old blogs. I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.


Did anyone mention TUBES?

Who used to always post stuff about tubes stopping hurricanes?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Levi, Lefty's a hoot! He came in briefly this past winter with pics of himself in one of the many weird snowstorms...it was fun to get to meet him, as I was not lucky enough to be here in the good ol' bad ol' bad hurricane days of '05 etc.

Yeah, Chicklit, I don't understand at all the plagiarizing on a blog instead of just giving a credit or attribution...shoot, it's easy enough, we all do it for research papers, and we're not going for a Ph.D. here -- just trying to get accurate info out and maybe have some good discussions and exercise some brain cells.


Wow lol I didn't know he ever came on here after that.

Looking back.....it was pretty funny lol. This was when TD 10(Katrina) was just developing.

Lefty liked to disagree with everyone and his grammar along with stormtop's was just hilarious. The discussion continues on several of the previous pages of that blog. The annoying thing is Stormtop's radical prediction for Katrina came true nearly perfectly, except for the trajectory at landfall.
Quoting Chicklit:
JFV had a "kick me" sign on his back.
I'll admit he lost me when he plagiarized someone else's forecast.


Inexcusable, but he has always added life to the blog. Those, and other types of posts, are far and few between.

Did I just excuse him? ;)

To me, come on and have some fun, especially since we all know exactly what it's all about. No need for him to do that, really. Win-win.

He'll be baaaack. (Arnold voice)
Quoting snotly:


Did anyone mention TUBES?

Who used to always post stuff about tubes stopping hurricanes?

omg he called into Jeff Masters' radio show Tuesday and they about hung up on him.
You guys, if you don't call tomorrow, then you're freeloaders. Show the Doc some support!
It was the tube guy and Masters' daughter, that was it. Get off your kiesters and call dammit. I'm not calling because I'm a social person, not a meteorological whiz. And have nothing intelligent to say. So c'mon.
Get your act together and call at 4 p.m. EST tomorrow to the Wunderground Radio show.
Quoting snotly:


Did anyone mention TUBES?

Who used to always post stuff about tubes stopping hurricanes?


He still is LOL.
Quoting Chicklit:
Seastep, you are so totally wrong.
This year is going to be a humdinger, by all indications. The Caribbean needs the rain.


I know. Wishcasting. :)
this is the storm jeff was talking about,I think?????,lol;)


seriously though,its impossible to predict a storm that far away and the end of june begining of july is FL's hottest time of year,not may...historically speaking(right before fl's rainy season which is usually july-sept)
Tubes? Oh, you mean the Tunnels? OMG, I saw some of that... I was flabbergasted...maps and graphs and if one ounce of that brainpower had been put to good use, he might have had the cure for the common cold, LOL!

Funniest old stuff I ever saw was re-posted by TornadoDude from "StormTop's Dad" and "Stormtop's Mom." I have never laughed at the blogs that hard before or since then!
Quoting Chicklit:

omg he called into Jeff Masters' radio show Tuesday and they about hung up on him.
You guys, if you don't call tomorrow, then you're freeloaders. Show the Doc some support!
It was the tube guy and Masters' daughter, that was it. Get off your kiesters and call dammit. I'm not calling because I'm a social person, not a meteorological whiz. And have nothing intelligent to say. So c'mon.
Get your act together and call at 4 p.m. EST tomorrow to the Wunderground Radio show.


I'll try and I am with you on this. Shaun's show, right?
that pics a extra tropical storm may 20th 09'
Okay, over and out.
Call tomorrow or you're a freeloader.
I've done my part, so am not in that category.
Shaun's show, right?
Yeah, I think it's Tim & Shaun.
Here's the Link
No excuses.
Quoting stillwaiting:
that pics a extra tropical storm may 20th 09'


That's Ida...lol.
I'da better get some winks myself.
Good night, all. That was fun.
Night Chicklit and Maryland :)
Dr. Klotzbach thinks that the upcoming hurricane season will likely be "well above average".He stated this today at the hurricane conference today.
No offense, Tim.
200. xcool
huh
some yrs rainy season can start in may here is florida expect that more likely than a cyclone this yr the soils are saturated we just need plus 90f and the trade winds presto thunderstorms as for early season cyclone development waters still pretty cool
Quoting stillwaiting:
this is the storm jeff was talking about,I think?????,lol;)


seriously though,its impossible to predict a storm that far away and the end of june begining of july is FL's hottest time of year,not may...historically speaking(right before fl's rainy season which is usually july-sept)


Sorry man, but you need to get a clue! First that is TS IDA from last year and second our rainy season in Orlando starts May 26th not July. Due your research before you attack. I'm surprised I wasted my time quoting you. My opinion is from what I'm seeing is that we may have a storm in the western caribbean come late May.
Quoting leftovers:
some yrs rainy season can start in may here is florida expect that more likely than a cyclone this yr the soils are saturated we just need plus 90f and the trade winds presto thunderstorms as for early season cyclone development waters still pretty cool


Average start to the rainy season is May 26th but yes, some years it has started in June.
why would you post something like that when it looks exactly like NHC - You really should try to change the look to prevent any confusion
OK AND HAPPY APRILS FOOLS
85 to 88 Friday thru all of next week in Orlando. Also, will begin to introduce isolated to scattered seabreeze thunderstorms later next week as the humidity is really going to build over the next few days.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
why would you post something like that when it looks exactly like NHC - You really should try to change the look to prevent any confusion


WELL IF PEOPLE READ THEY WILL KONW THAT THERE IS NO FORCASTER AT THE NHC BY THE NAME WUNDERKIDCAYMAN
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
OK AND HAPPY APRILS FOOLS

I had to rub my eyes for a minute on that one. Good one.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


WELL IF PEOPLE READ THEY WILL KONW THAT THERE IS NO FORCASTER AT THE NHC BY THE NAME WUNDERKIDCAYMAN
By the way, that was done very well, Happy April Fools!
Quoting ftpiercecane:

I had to rub my eyes for a minute on that one. Good one.
One of the reasons it was so good is because there actually is something there look at the coordinates he put.

I KNOW I AM VERY GOOD
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I KNOW I AM VERY GOOD


Nice one Cayman and I'm glad you got some warm rain yesterday!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nice one Cayman and I'm glad you got some warm rain yesterday!

still have that smile on my face
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT THU APRIL 1 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD LOST IT EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS GAINED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 500 AM EDT...900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES...804.7 KM...NORTHWEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.3N 38.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER WUNDERKIDCAYMAN

NNNN





LOL....Good one.
OK, heading over to Orlando for the NHC... Should be there about noon

Y'all behave :-)
This is going to be me starting tonight sitting on the beach.

jeff-we:orlando averages less than 2" of rain in the month of may,then 4" in june,8" in july and around 12" in august.....I would say orlando's rainy season is climatologically speaking runs mid-june thru mid-sept and that storms not ida!!! may 20th 09 extra tropical storm check 1st post pic



OH YEA, NEEEEW BLOGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!