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Record May Heat, Drought, and Fires Scorch California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on May 15, 2014

Record May heat sent temperatures soaring above 100° in much of Southern California on Wednesday, and fierce Santa Ana winds fanned fires that scorched at least 9,000 acres in San Diego County, forcing thousands to evacuate. Los Angeles Airport hit 96° on Wednesday, which is the hottest May temperature on record NOAA's Threaded Extremes website (though apparently these records are not correct, since NWS Los Angeles says the all-time May record is 97°.) All-time May record heat was recorded at Camarillo (102°) and Oxnard (102°) on Wednesday. In Downtown Los Angeles, the mercury hit 99° on Wednesday, falling short of the all-time May record is 103° set on May 25, 1896. More record heat is forecast on Thursday, and hot offshore Santa Ana winds will bring extreme fire danger.


Figure 1. A firenado in Fallbrook, California at old Highway 395 and Interstate 15 on May 14, 2014. Image credit: Jena Rents via Twitter.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of fires burning in Southern California and Northern Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, May 14, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

100% of California in severe to exceptional drought
Today's U.S. Drought Monitor report showed grim news for California: 100% of the state is now in severe or higher drought, up from 96% the previous week. Though just 25% of California is classified as being in the highest level of drought, "Exceptional", Erin McCarthy at the Wall Street Journal estimates that farms comprising 53% of California's $44.7 billion market value lie in the Exceptional drought area. Averaged state-wide, the Palmer Drought Severity Index during April 2014 was the second worst on record, behind 1977. For the 12-month period ending in April, drought conditions in California for 2013 - 2014 were also the second most severe on record, slightly below the 2008 - 2009 drought. To break the drought, most of the state needs 9 - 15" or precipitation to fall in one month. This amounts to more than a half-year's worth of precipitation for most of the state.


Figure 3. The May 13, 2014 U.S. Drought Monitor showed 100% of California in severe or higher drought, with 25% of the state in the highest level of drought, "Exceptional." Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

California's rainy season is over
The California October through April rainy season is now over. Between October 2013 and April 2014, the state received 10.44" of precipitation, which is just 51% of average for the period, and the third lowest such total on record. Going back to 1895, the record low mark was set in 1976 - 1977, when the state got just 34% of its average rainy season precipitation. California typically receives less than 10% of its annual precipitation between May and September, and the coming hot and dry summer in combination with a severely depleted Sierra snowpack will cause a severe fire season and significant agricultural damages. The fifth and final snow survey of the season on May 1 found that the statewide snowpack’s water content--which normally provides about a third of the water for California’s farms and cities--was only 18% of average for the date. Already, the 2014 drought has cost the state at least $3.6 billion in agricultural damages, the California Farm Water Coalition estimates. CAL FIRE recently announced it had hired 125 additional firefighters to help address the increased fire threat due to drought conditions.


Video 1. Aerial views of the Southern California fires from Reuters. Thanks to wunderground member Skyepony for posting this link in my blog comments.

Related Posts
California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warming, my April 16, 2014 post

I've done four posts this year on ways to get more water for the thirsty Southwest:
1) Conservation measures
2) Cloud seeding
3) Desalinization plants
4) Enormous Water Works Programs

Jeff Masters

Carlsbad/ Pointsettia fire
Carlsbad/ Pointsettia fire
San Diego county, Carlsbad fire as seen from Del Dios Highlands Preserve.
Washingtonia Fire San Marcos, Ca
Washingtonia Fire San Marcos, Ca
I think this is fire number 7 in the county of San Diego today....
Ensenada May Fire
Ensenada May Fire

Drought Heat Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks For the update Dr Masters

I do feel for all in CAL
Very appreciated update. Water folks have seen this Summer/Fall shortage a LONG way off and it is going to be horrendous. I'm thankful that the snowcap even made it up to 18% with it's vapid performance through March.
Three follow up questions:
1 How much of the typical snowpack volume is used for water supply in an ordinary year?
2 What do the reservoir volumes look like and how much drop can we expect during an El Nino California Summer?
and
3 Did previous historical droughts fall on the heels of dry years like this one, or did they have wetter antecedent conditions?
The Siberian tundra peatlands and Indonesian rainforests have also been burning for months. The annual year on year atmospheric increase of CO2 was a record for April, at 3.0 ppm.
Thanks Dr Masters. So sad this is not what California needs what-so-ever..
dr m i would not say over yet seem like mode runs are forcasting a t-storm event on monday and monday night may be are 1st dry lighting evnt
Thanks Dr. M, stinks to see how bad the drought has become in Cali. Maybe with the possibility of El Nino later this year it will bring some relief, but who knows when or if the effects of that will take place.

Thank you Dr. Masters for supplying us with all this information on what is probably going to be a front line historical drought event in US history.
The problem now as you say will be the fires.
There is nothing much which can be done about the lack of rainfall but there is still a lot which can be done about making people aware of fire dangers and how best to clear any scrub and undergrowth from around and under their properties.
When I watched the video on the previous blog, I thought I heard the man who's house was burning say that he was worried about the welfare of his cars?
To me that would sound a bit strange with his house in flames but cars are a big fire danger as well and burn fiercely.
We are hoping that common sense will prevail and that extreme care will be taken until such times as these dangers pass.
Thanks Jeff.

I lived in Camarillo on the Oxnard Plain between Los Angeles and Ventura for a year in the 1980's when I worked in the Newbury Park/Thousand oaks area - the Conejo Valley. I enjoyed the cool sea breezes and mild climate almost every day.

I experienced an ashfall from a fire in the mountains to the north while I leved there, but that was during the "normal" autumn fire season with the hot Santa Ana winds. Back then, spring was usually mild and the chaparral and brush that covered the hills were not yet tinder dry, although the tall grass on the hills was usually dry and brown by this time of the year.

It's amazing to see such high temps and hot north/east winds there at this time of year. I read that even Catalina Island - 26 miles out in the Pacific - was sweltering with 90 plus degree temps, although I see that highs are forecast to be back in the 60's in a couple of days. This means that the sea breezes wiil be returning soon.

My memories of spring in SoCal are the evening and morning fog along the coast, and the cool dampness in spring. Are the weather patterns along the SoCal coast changing significantly?
Crossing my fingers that the problems down around SD don't expand into the LA area over the next couple of days.
Here in the mountains of Western NC, we are under a flash flood warning after heavy rains early this AM. Rainfall amounts between 1.25 and 2.0 inches have been reported with the passage of a cold front. Temperature in my backyard at the moment is 61F after a high yesterday of 81. More rainfall is in the forecast later today...
Scorchio !
Maybe with the possibility of El Nino later this year it will bring some relief, but who knows when or if the effects of that will take place.

any day now :-)
thanks Doc.
Quoting 7. StormWx:
Thanks Dr. M. It stinks to see how bad the drought has become in California. Maybe with the possibility of El Niño later this year it will bring some relief, but who knows when or if the effects of that will take place.
And of course, Storm, the problem there is that El Niño - especially if it's a strong one - will likely bring heavy (extreme?) rain and floods. This will mean landslides floods that will damage and destroy homes and highways, ruin crops, cause huge economic losses, and probably take some lives. The recently burned areas will be most susceptible to landslides and slumps.

Extreme rain events may fill up reservoirs, but they also add extra silt buildup - a factor that can limit the useful life of dams. Plus, state and federal water agencies - and their are several of them - cannot allow all of the reservoirs to fill completely early in the rainy season, because some capacity is needed for flood control by limiting out flow and downstream river levels.

It was the dependable Sierra snow-pack, and steady release of water into the spring and summer that made California such a great area for irrigated farming. Unfortunately, the heat and warm winter precip will mean rain instead of snow, and likely heavy rain in the spring that will melt the snow-pack out early and cause yet more flooding - and deplete the snow-pack that is needed to refill the reservoirs during the spring. Then runoff is not available to help keep reservoir levels up into the late spring and summer.

Those here who don't acknowledge the complex issues involved in the California hydrological cycles seem to think simply that a heavy-precip El Niño year will be good for California and end the drought. They may be right, but it is likely that there will be high costs associated with an El Niño if it causes extreme rain and flooding. Warm, extreme winter rains are not really what California needs.



Quoting ricderr:
Maybe with the possibility of El Nino later this year it will bring some relief, but who knows when or if the effects of that will take place.

any day now :-)


STS is MIA today. My guess is he is avoiding eating crow, lol :o)
Quoting 3. biff4ugo:

Three follow up questions:
1 How much of the typical snowpack volume is used for water supply in an ordinary year?
2 What do the reservoir volumes look like and how much drop can we expect during an El Nino California Summer?
and
3 Did previous historical droughts fall on the heels of dry years like this one, or did they have wetter antecedent conditions?



I recommend "The West Without Water" by B. Ingram and F. Malamud-Roan

http://www.amazon.com/The-West-without-Water-Drou ghts/dp/0520268555/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=14001665 21&sr=8-1&keywords=california+drought

The book answers all your questions. In round numbers to answer your questions, 1) off the top of my noggin' I recall that about 75% of the runoff from melting snow is allocated to the Central Valley Project (CVP) and the other water schemes. The fish get the rest.

2) The only reservoirs you need concern yourself with are Shasta (CVP) and Oroville (SWP). The rest are not crucial to the state-wide system, albeit local communities/ag districts are highly reliant on the others. The irrigators have already been told to expect zero water from CVP and the CA State Water Project (SWP) this summer. So there is prudence built in to the call on water for this summer. See: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGrap hsMain.action

3) In the paleo record, there were a couple of back to back megadroughts. One lasted for 225 years and the other about 140 years. This was about 1000 years ago. We ain't seen nothin' yet. See The West Without Water for the dry details.

Also, here's a good guide to the drought in the Central Valley:

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_25447586/ca lifornia-drought-san-joaquin-valley-sinking-farmer s-race
Quoting 16. StormWx:



STS is MIA today. My guess is he is avoiding eating crow, lol :o)


STS, avoiding eating crow? Well, he had it every other day last hurricane season, so he may well be tired of it. He is smart though and a good member but guilty of over enthusiastic projections. He is a knowledgeable guy.
NOAA hurricane team to embark on U.S. Gulf Coast Awareness Tour

Excerpt:

Knabb, along with senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown and storm surge team leader
Jamie Rhome, will travel with the crew when the aircraft visits Corpus Christi, Tex.; Houston,
Tex.; New Orleans, La.; Tallahassee, Fla.; and Tampa, Fla. The public and media are invited to
tour the aircraft and meet the team.
Weather 30 percent 'go' for tonight's Delta IV launch


Weather could impact the launch of a Delta IV rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station at 8:08 p.m. Thursday. (PHOTO/File)

CAPE CANAVERAL AIR FORCE STATION --
Destination Space and a Delta IV rocket is on the pad this afternoon, ready for launch from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station.

But weather may hamper any liftoff tonight.

Official reports say there's only a 30 percent chance of favorable weather tonight.

Cumulus and anvil clouds, along with lightning are the primary concerns for tonight's launch attempt.

A GPS satellite is the payload for this Delta IV rocket.

Once launched, the satellite is designed to improve accuracy for GPS devices used by the military.

An added bonus though, it's also supposed to help enhance position, velocity and timing information for the GPS in our cars and on our smartphones.

United Launch Alliance is behind the Delta IV, and they may have to rely on the rocket more than their Atlas V rocket.

That's because Russia is threatening to cut off shipments of the engine used by the Atlas V.

It's all due to the rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine.

ULA tells us in a statement, "We are hopeful that our two nations will engage in productive conversations over the coming months that will resolve the matter quickly."

ULA says it has a 2 year supply of Atlas V engines, and if the situation isn't resolved by that time, then the company will rely on its Delta IV for future national security launches.

If the launch is delayed 24 hours, then weather conditions look much better for a Friday night launch.

Although, solar activity may be a concern tomorrow.

We'll keep viewers updated as new information on the conditions, and any changes to the launch window are made available.

Tonight's 18 minute launch window opens up at 8:08 p.m.

You can watch the launch live on News 13.
@afreedma: NOAA says El Nino event more likely to be weak to moderate than strong, way things look right now. May declare it in progress as of June 5.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


STS, avoiding eating crow? Well, he had it every other day last hurricane season, so he may well be tired of it. He is smart though and a good member but guilty of over enthusiastic projections. He is a knowledgeable guy.


Yah i agree with ya. Too much faith in models. But its all in good fun. I wonder what the Kelvin wave is up too today. Hopefully he will give an update soon!
This years El-Nino appears to be on par with 1997/1998 event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pl4ZYSHq_0#t=410
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgCgsxPbAvk
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@afreedma: NOAA says El Nino event more likely to be weak to moderate than strong, way things look right now. May declare it in progress as of June 5.


Yep i agree with NOAA as of right now, possibly moderate but we gotta start weak first :o)

The 3.4 region is above 0.5C again so it looks like it may stay there for a while.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THURSDAY MAY 15 2014


Excerpt:

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
ENSO-NEUTRAL TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IS UNDERWAY. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS BY
THE SUMMER OF 2014 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THE MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MORE THAN 0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
EQUATOR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS HAVE RECENTLY EMERGED NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.
ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS OF DEVELOPING EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INCREASINGLY
EVIDENT IN THE OBSERVATIONS, SUCH AS UNUSUALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE
EQUATOR OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, AND THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS. EL
NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL,
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG PREDICTIONS OF THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT.
Quoting 23. StormWx:


Yah i agree with ya. Too much faith in models. But its all in good fun. I wonder what the Kelvin wave is up too today. Hopefully he will give an update soon!


Man give it a rest I made a reference to the HRRR model showing precip totals very high across western FL. I didn't make it up so no there is no crow to be had. Also you come on here and run your mouth and its you who is wrong every day on here but hey no one can call you out huh bubba.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This years El-Nino appears to be on par with 1997/1998 event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pl4ZYSHq_0#t=410
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgCgsxPbAvk


Top of the mornin' to ya STS!




Get yer rain gauge ready, you may get an inch :o)
Great post Doc. Very serious situation in California right now and a strong El-Nino later this year will turn the state from drought to heavy floods causing even more devastation across the state.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@afreedma: NOAA says El Nino event more likely to be weak to moderate than strong, way things look right now. May declare it in progress as of June 5.


I agree with this, something similar to the 2009-10 event.
Quoting 30. CybrTeddy:


I agree with this, something similar to the 2009-10 event.


Others at NOAA calling for a Strong Event.
According to Eric Blake at the NHC this years El-Nino could be on of the strongest on record.

@EricBlake12
A provocative illustration from CPC of where 2014 compares to selected strong El Ninos at this time of the year

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Others at NOAA calling for a Strong Event.


Whats up with the Kelvin Wave?
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters...
A ton of moisture over NE FL. Water vapor palette2...

New severe thunderstorm watch covers a lot of area in the mid-atlantic.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC021-031-043-160000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0157.140515T1555Z-140516T0000Z/

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FREDERICK MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON


NCC001-013-015-017-019-031-033-037-047-049-051-061 -063-065-069-
077-079-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-107-117-125-12 7-129-131-133-
135-137-141-145-147-155-163-165-181-183-185-191-19 5-160000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0157.140515T1555Z-140516T0000Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET
CASWELL CHATHAM COLUMBUS
CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX
HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MOORE
NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO
PENDER PERSON PITT
ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON


VAC003-007-009-011-015-025-029-031-033-037-041-043 -047-049-053-
059-061-065-069-075-079-081-083-085-087-107-109-11 1-113-117-125-
135-137-139-143-145-147-153-157-165-171-177-179-18 7-540-570-590-
595-600-610-630-660-680-683-685-730-760-790-820-84 0-160000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0157.140515T1555Z-140516T0000Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST
APPOMATTOX AUGUSTA BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINE
CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CLARKE
CULPEPER CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE
FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA
FREDERICK GOOCHLAND GREENE
GREENSVILLE HALIFAX HANOVER
HENRICO LOUDOUN LOUISA
LUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURG
NELSON NOTTOWAY ORANGE
PAGE PITTSYLVANIA POWHATAN
PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD WARREN


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

CHARLOTTESVILLE COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE
EMPORIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH
FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG LYNCHBURG
MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK PETERSBURG
RICHMOND STAUNTON WAYNESBORO
WINCHESTER


WVC003-027-031-037-065-160000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0157.140515T1555Z-140516T0000Z/

WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY HAMPSHIRE HARDY
JEFFERSON MORGAN


AMZ136-137-158-250-252-160000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0157.140515T1555Z-140516T0000Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS

NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS

S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM

ATTN...WFO...LWX...ILM...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH...
Dr. Kevin Trenberth is said that we may have entered a positive PDO period and the cause of this might have been Super Typhoon Hiayan. I found that as an interesting reference. Also if this is indeed the case then GW maybe in full swing for the next few years due to the PDO switching back to positive.
If the NOAA can't reach a consensus, then I'll stick with my "we don't know yet" mantra
Quoting Xulonn:
Thanks Jeff.

I lived in Camarillo on the Oxnard Plain between Los Angeles and Ventura for a year in the 1980's when I worked in the Newbury Park/Thousand oaks area - the Conejo Valley. I enjoyed the cool sea breezes and mild climate almost every day.

I experienced an ashfall from a fire in the mountains to the north while I leved there, but that was during the "normal" autumn fire season with the hot Santa Ana winds. Back then, spring was usually mild and the chaparral and brush that covered the hills were not yet tinder dry, although the tall grass on the hills was usually dry and brown by this time of the year.

It's amazing to see such high temps and hot north/east winds there at this time of year. I read that even Catalina Island - 26 miles out in the Pacific - was sweltering with 90 plus degree temps, although I see that highs are forecast to be back in the 60's in a couple of days. This means that the sea breezes wiil be returning soon.

My memories of spring in SoCal are the evening and morning fog along the coast, and the cool dampness in spring. Are the weather patterns along the SoCal coast changing significantly?

Good morning, Xulonn. I saw your reply on the other blog. Thank you for your civilized discourse as well, but I'll save it for another time.

I lived in the LA Basin from 1967 to 1977 and then in the SF Bay area until 2005. These Santa Ana events in May, while not rare, seem to be more common that when I first lived in LA. Even when there are offshore winds in spring, they usually don't make it to the coast, as they have this month. The set up appears to be a high pressure ridge over the Intermountain states and a thermal low off the coast. As long as that condition exists, they'll get strong offshore winds. It looks like the thermal trough is beginning to fill, so the winds driving these fires should start to calm down in the next 24 hours.

The other immediate issue is that there is an arsonist, or maybe several arsonists, on the loose. You don't get seven fires in one day just from carelessness. As the population of California has grown, so has the inevitable number who are mentally ill, including pyromaniacs. I'm sure the authorities are aware of this as well and are trying to track this person or persons down. In an ironic twist, the more fires that get set, the more likely they are to catch the offender(s). Not so good for people in the line of new fires, but it will put a stop to even more fires. We had this situation several times during our periodic droughts over the years, and the number of arson caused fires really started to skyrocket in the late 80's. We started running extra patrols in the hills during offshore wind events but, as you know, California's a big place. We often only caught these...uhh...suspects when they were leaving the scene of a fire they had already set.

As bad as the situation is now, it will be much worse this fall during the normal Santa Ana season. All we can do is hope for an early start to the rainy season thanks to El Nino.
For comparison purposes:



Some records tied, some broken and some smashed yesterday.


Record Report
Statement as of 9:25 PM PDT on May 14, 2014

...Corrected information for Oxnard and Camarillo...

...Preliminary record high temperatures set today...

a record high temperature of 96 degrees was set at Los Angeles Airport CA today. This breaks the old record of 87 set in 1967.

A record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at downtown Los Angeles/usc today. This broke the old record of 96 set in 1890.

A record high temperature of 101 degrees was set at Long Beach Airport CA today. This broke the old record of 93 set in 1970.

A record high temperature of 96 degrees was set at ucla today. This broke the old record of 87 set in 2013 and 1979.

A record high temperature of 83 degrees was set at Sandberg CA today. This broke the old record of 82 set in 2013 and 2006.

A record high temperature of 102 degrees was set at Camarillo Airport CA today. This broke the old record of 98 set in 1979. This also set a new high temperature record for the month of may for Camarillo...which was previously 98 degrees set 4 times...on may 1st 2014...may 2nd 2013...may 14th 1979...and may 16th 1970.

This is also the earliest date in the calendar year on which the high temperature at Camarillo Airport exceeded 100 degrees. Prior to this...the earliest such date was June 16 1981...when the high was also 102 degrees. The all time high at Camarillo Airport is 103 degrees...set on September 24th 1978.

A record high temperature of 102 degrees was set at Oxnard nwsfo CA today. This broke the old record of 98 set in 1979. This also set a new high temperature record for the month of may for the city of Oxnard...which was previously 98 degrees set 2 times...on may 14th 1979 and may 16th 1970.

This is also the earliest date in the calendar year on which the high temperature at Oxnard nwsfo exceeded 100 degrees. Prior to this...the earliest such date was June 16 1981...when the high was also 102 degrees. The all time high in the city of Oxnard is 104 degrees set on September 22nd 1939.

Both Oxnard and Camarillo Airport reached exactly 100 degrees... but did not exceed it...on April 6 1989. That was the earliest date in the calendar year on which triple digit heat was recorded at both locations.

A record high temperature of 98 degrees was set at Santa Barbara Airport CA today. This broke the old record of 90 set in 1970.

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Santa Maria Airport CA today. This broke the old record of 92 set in 1922.

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Paso Robles Airport CA today. This tied the old record of 100 set in 1972.
Ugh, just got a call from a lady said her whole neighborhood got taken out in SD county. This is baaaaad.
Thanks Jeff...
i did some simple research about the effects of el nino as it pertains to rainfall amounts in california, texas and florida as some have made mention of those areas and how they can expect lots of rain....

of course california takes the cake as i will show at the bottom......if there's an el nino...get ready for rain...

now texas was unique as across the state...you can expect at least some areas to receive above average rainfall...and others to receive much below normal rainfall.....what you can not expect...is an average amount

in florida....in both the panhandle and south florida....above average is more likely than average or below average....but average was very close....orllando though...in an el nino year did not hae rainfall below average...however average is the norm as it happened twice as much as above average...one main difference though was above average was not that much above average where as in californai and texas.... above average totals could be as high as 300 percent of normal...i have to wonder.....if there somehow..the above average rainfall they receive in the winter...is nullified by the lack of tropical systems in the summer and the affects that has on their wet season rainfall

after i looked at california i ran into some great graphics...so i'll let them speak for themselves







last year all the parameters were in place for an active hurricane season and that never came to past. now all the parameters are in place for an El Nino event, athough there are certain disagreements to the time and strengh. could it be one of those years where predictions have failed ?
I wonder if Typhoon Hiayan was the catalyst that jump started this historic Kelvin Wave to move across the Pacific? I have heard mention in regards to Typhoon Hiayan having a hand in this developing El-Nino from Scientist on several blogs. Very interesting to hear that Typhoon released such an extreme amount of heat away from the W-Pac.
Great post from Webberweather this morning. It needs a repost.

Quoting 316. Webberweather53:
I do eventually plan on doing a more extensive update on ENSO in several days, been swamped down lately with AP exams. In the meantime, here are SST animations of all El Ninos since the 1982-83 event. Despite potential discrepancies in intensity, it appears even at a first glance our closest analog to our current unfolding El Nino is 1997-98 w/ initially intense warming @ the NINO 1 2 region & a second warm pool evident @ the equator near the International Dateline which merge over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Of course we must consider that MJO forcing was much more supportive in this event, with 4 successive MJO pulses from January-June helping drive WWBs & anomalous westerly surface currents.

Current SST


2009-10 Moderate, Modiki El Nino




2006-07 Weak, Traditional El nino




2002-03 Moderate, Modiki El Nino




1997-98 Strong, Traditional El Nino




1994-95 Weak, Modiki El Nino




1991-92 Moderate, Modiki El Nino




1986-87 Moderate, Traditional El Nino




1982-83 Strong, Traditional El Nino


Also, here are a few graphics that should help you with some of the El Nino classification...



Quoting 46. StormTrackerScott:
I wonder if Typhoon Hiayan was the catalyst that jump started this historic Kelvin Wave to move across the Pacific? I have heard mention in regards to Typhoon Hiayan having a hand in this developing El-Nino from Scientist on several blogs. Very interesting to hear that Typhoon released such an extreme amount of heat away from the W-Pac.


I remember the Doc, among others, talking about how the waters feeding Haiyan were very warm to very anomalous depths, so those are probably some of the same warm waters that ended up sourcing the Kelvin wave. Beyond that, I can't imagine there being much of a connection.

I just wish we could fast forward to rainy season, when this El Nino will hopefully be peaking at a strong enough level to bring us some drought relief.
Quoting 44. ricderr:

i did some simple research about the effects of el nino as it pertains to rainfall amounts in california, texas and florida as some have made mention of those areas and how they can expect lots of rain....

of course california takes the cake as i will show at the bottom......if there's an el nino...get ready for rain...

now texas was unique as across the state...you can expect at least some areas to receive above average rainfall...and others to receive much below normal rainfall.....what you can not expect...is an average amount

in florida....in both the panhandle and south florida....above average is more likely than average or below average....but average was very close....orllando though...in an el nino year did not hae rainfall below average...however average is the norm as it happened twice as much as above average...one main difference though was above average was not that much above average where as in californai and texas.... above average totals could be as high as 300 percent of normal...i have to wonder.....if there somehow..the above average rainfall they receive in the winter...is nullified by the lack of tropical systems in the summer and the affects that has on their wet season rainfall

after i looked at california i ran into some great graphics...so i'll let them speak for themselves
....




Nice work, ric. Graphics says... La Niña/El Niño is an extremely reliable indicator for SoCal.
50. josF
Thank you, Dr Masters.
Quoting 7. StormWx:

Thanks Dr. M, stinks to see how bad the drought has become in Cali. Maybe with the possibility of El Nino later this year it will bring some relief, but who knows when or if the effects of that will take place.


Recently I took a look at the effect big El Nino events had on the Colorado River drainage. Here's what I discovered....

OK, so in the real world, what does a big El Nino year mean for the U.S. Southwest? Generally, very good news, water-wise. Not counting the landslides and flash floods, accidental deaths, bridge washouts and other headline grabbers.

Here’s where to look at the historical record:

Start here:

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

The important measure is “Inflow(CFS)”, essentially the inflow to Lake Powell and the lower Colorado River, currently serving about 30 million people. The Lake is low, by the way and could use some inflow.

Scroll to the bottom of the page and click “Search DB for more Water Data Facts” | Select “Averages By Year” from the drop-down menu. You should see this:

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php

And a listing of average yearly river data, including Inflow in CFS. This is the comparable we’re interested in.

In 2013, the Average Inflow in CFS was 7794.37 cfs
In 2012, the Average Inflow in CFS was 7048.56 cfs

Last big El Nino looked like this:

In 1998, the Average Inflow in CFS was 18271.14 cfs
In 1997, the Average Inflow in CFS was 23755.15 cfs

But the really big flows were in the previous decade:

In 1984 the Average Inflow in CFS was 30333.58 cfs
In 1983 the Average Inflow in CFS was 28695.53 cfs

So looking at these pairs as couplets, what we can see is that in 83-4 the inflow into Lake Powell was over 400% great than in the most recent two years (2012-3) on the Colorado. (the 97-8 inflow was 300% greater than the last two years.)

Looked at this way, a major El Nino event seems to be something to look forward to rather than to dread. :)
Quoting 49. LowerCal:
Nice work, ric. Graphics says... La Nia/El Nio is an extremely reliable indicator for SoCal.


I wish ric's graphic showed some more recent years. For example, the 2006-07 El Nino was a total dud(waaaay below average for LA), while the 2010-11 La Nina actually gave us a wetter season than El Nino in the prior year.

Also, the Modoki in 2004-05 had a greater impact than the "Super" Nino.

Link
Nice work, ric. Graphics says... La Niña/El Niño is an extremely reliable indicator for SoCal.



hey there LC!!!!!.......don't see you around often anymore.....good to see you....and yes......not much doubt as to what will happen by those graphs
What's interesting about all those El Nino events is the start and end times were all different and the exact location of where the warmest ocean temperatures surfaced and propagated which lends me to believe that we may be able to add 2014 in a category of El Nino on its own if you know what I mean and in terms of what that may do to the AHS well some of those season we had major hurricane strikes on the US and some seasons we were very fortunate. This El Nino looks to be different from the rest.
Very good job ricderr on your research and analysis of the data and charts.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

Quoting 9. Xulonn:

I read that even Catalina Island - 26 miles out in the Pacific - was sweltering with 90 plus degree temps, although I see that highs are forecast to be back in the 60's in a couple of days.... Are the weather patterns along the SoCal coast changing significantly?


We are currently experiencing unique spring weather in Oregon. Similar to California, the west side of the Cascades (eg. Portland, Eugene) are setting high temp records, and last week we had a high on the coast at Florence of 91. This is absolutely unprecedented. The Rossby wave in the jet stream has never before, to my knowledge, taken such an extreme excursion down the spine of the Rockies and created a hot pocket out of the West Coast. Others will probably have better data at hand, but to me this a changing climate, right before our very eyes.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/usheat.gif

Another way to look at this is that right now it is 66 degrees here in Central Oregon (Bend) at 9:30 AM. What's normal for this date at this hour? About 50 degrees.
I wish ric's graphic showed some more recent years. For example, the 2006-07 El Nino was a total dud(waaaay below average for LA), while the 2010-11 La Nina actually gave us a wetter season than El Nino in the prior year.

Also, the Modoki in 2004-05 had a greater impact than the "Super" Nino
.


sorry tim....that was from a study done after the 98 event....
How Twitter Will Change the Next Hurricane

Excerpt:

That's a challenge to emergency managers, said Chandler, who teaches at the nearby University of Central Florida. Not only are people not getting correct information from the proper authorities, what they are getting could well be wrong — and fatally so.




..... ducks.....
Quoting 59. ricderr:
I wish ric's graphic showed some more recent years. For example, the 2006-07 El Nino was a total dud(waaaay below average for LA), while the 2010-11 La Nina actually gave us a wetter season than El Nino in the prior year.

Also, the Modoki in 2004-05 had a greater impact than the "Super" Nino
.


sorry tim....that was from a study done after the 98 event....


No problem -it's still a great reference. It's pretty interesting that the ENSO cycle has become a less reliable indicator for SoCal since then. Makes you wonder if the climate is changing or something...
Quoting 53. TimSoCal:



I wish ric's graphic showed some more recent years. For example, the 2006-07 El Nino was a total dud(waaaay below average for LA), while the 2010-11 La Nina actually gave us a wetter season than El Nino in the prior year.

Also, the Modoki in 2004-05 had a greater impact than the "Super" Nino.

Link
Tim, thanks for pointing that out and the link. So, maybe not extremely but hopefully still good odds and El Niño materializes.


Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 8:53 AM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
82 °F
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 35 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)

Normal is 82/56, since it is 9:51 and it is already over and the forecast was bumped up to 102, YIKES...

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:47 AM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
88.9 °F
Clear
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 85 °F

This is just North of me, this might be a bit high, I have 82.4F,
good thing I got up early and sucked a bunch of cold air into my house to cool it off a bit.
Already up to 90 here, but at least the Santa Anas haven't returned yet.

Quoting 58. rayduray2013:



We are currently experiencing unique spring weather in Oregon. Similar to California, the west side of the Cascades (eg. Portland, Eugene) are setting high temp records, and last week we had a high on the coast at Florence of 91. This is absolutely unprecedented. The Rossby wave in the jet stream has never before, to my knowledge, taken such an extreme excursion down the spine of the Rockies and created a hot pocket out of the West Coast. Others will probably have better data at hand, but to me this a changing climate, right before our very eyes.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/usheat.gif

Another way to look at this is that right now it is 66 degrees here in Central Oregon (Bend) at 9:30 AM. What's normal for this date at this hour? About 50 degrees.
In some locations here in lower California yesterday the morning lows were warmer than the average highs for the date.
Anyone have good input to where and when the Bermuda High starts settling in for the season?
Quoting rayduray2013:


Recently I took a look at the effect big El Nino events had on the Colorado River drainage. Here's what I discovered....

OK, so in the real world, what does a big El Nino year mean for the U.S. Southwest? Generally, very good news, water-wise. Not counting the landslides and flash floods, accidental deaths, bridge washouts and other headline grabbers.

Here’s where to look at the historical record:

Start here:

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

The important measure is “Inflow(CFS)”, essentially the inflow to Lake Powell and the lower Colorado River, currently serving about 30 million people. The Lake is low, by the way and could use some inflow.

Scroll to the bottom of the page and click “Search DB for more Water Data Facts” | Select “Averages By Year” from the drop-down menu. You should see this:

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php

And a listing of average yearly river data, including Inflow in CFS. This is the comparable we’re interested in.

In 2013, the Average Inflow in CFS was 7794.37 cfs
In 2012, the Average Inflow in CFS was 7048.56 cfs

Last big El Nino looked like this:

In 1998, the Average Inflow in CFS was 18271.14 cfs
In 1997, the Average Inflow in CFS was 23755.15 cfs

But the really big flows were in the previous decade:

In 1984 the Average Inflow in CFS was 30333.58 cfs
In 1983 the Average Inflow in CFS was 28695.53 cfs

So looking at these pairs as couplets, what we can see is that in 83-4 the inflow into Lake Powell was over 400% great than in the most recent two years (2012-3) on the Colorado. (the 97-8 inflow was 300% greater than the last two years.)

Looked at this way, a major El Nino event seems to be something to look forward to rather than to dread. :)

Indeed, and the period from 1982-1988 was almost a continuous El Nino, interspersed with a couple of very weak La Ninas. Not only was there above average rainfall and snow in California but the Rockies also had tremendous snowfall years. It's rare to get both things at the same time. It's snow in the Rockies that feeds the bulldog when it comes to the Colorado River. Luckily, the snowfall season in the Rockies has been above normal this year, so more Colorado River water will be available to take up some of the slack for power generation and irrigation. At least the snowfall season in the Cascades returned to normal this year, so that means Oregon and Washington will be in the position to export hydro produced electricity to California. With California having one of its (only) two major nuke plants offline, hydro power will be called on to provide more baseload generation, something it's not designed to do and, with the meager snowfall, it won't be able to do. Still, there are a few bright spots in this otherwise gloomy picture. If nothing else, Oregon and Washington electric utilities are going to make a lot of money this year.
Quoting 68. kingcane:

Anyone have good input to where and when the Bermuda High starts settling in for the season?
the high is quasi stationary and move around during the season I use this map to watch



right now got a couple of lows splitting the highs once they clear out we should start to see things set up the azores high is kinda high up there
Quoting kingcane:
Anyone have good input to where and when the Bermuda High starts settling in for the season?

No one can really give you a good answer. The Bermuda high doesn't "settle" anywhere in a normal season but moves easterly and westerly several times. The last two years, the Bermuda high has been more expansive than usual and did more or less "settle" in the mid-Atlantic. What will happen this year is little more than conjecture right now.
We have family and friends throughout the effected area.. Lots of people helping people and opening homes to those having to evacuate. Another billion dollar disaster in the making...
Quoting 66. LowerCal:

In some locations here in lower California yesterday the morning lows were warmer than the average highs for the date.


Already.... summer in the city.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m648v4s5sFc
Quoting TimSoCal:
Already up to 90 here, but at least the Santa Anas haven't returned yet.

And it's only 61 here in SE Alabama after a string of very warm days. It looks like we should see highs 10-15 degrees below normal over the next three days as the cool and thankfully drier air has once again pushed all the way into the Gulf. The front was also a good rain producer, with 2.92" yesterday. It looks like things should start to cool off tomorrow there, with the weekend returning to more normal temperatures, whatever that means nowadays.
Quoting 63. PedleyCA:



Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 8:53 AM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
82 F
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 35 F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)

Normal is 82/56, since it is 9:51 and it is already over and the forecast was bumped up to 102, YIKES...

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:47 AM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
88.9 F
Clear
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 23 F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 85 F

This is just North of me, this might be a bit high, I have 82.4F,
good thing I got up early and sucked a bunch of cold air into my house to cool it off a bit.




gonna be a warm day
Quoting 75. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





gonna be a warm day


Yes I am afraid it is going to be nasty, normal is 80/56. I have 85.3 Airport and the PWS to the North @91 & 91.6, YIKES...
Recently I took a look at the effect big El Nino events had on the Colorado River drainage. Here's what I discovered....

great info and links there ray.....i was comparing flow rate per el nino years and found something that i looked for and didn't find when i did my rainfall totals......

in all three states......california, texas and florida...it did not matter whether the nino was classified as weak...moderate...or strong...the affects were very close no matter the strength...that was not the case when looking at the inflow numbers.....

weak el nino...avg...12000 cfs

moderate el nino...avg...13000cfs

strong el nino...avg...16000 cfs......

a huge difference between weak and strong
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
How Twitter Will Change the Next Hurricane

Excerpt:

That's a challenge to emergency managers, said Chandler, who teaches at the nearby University of Central Florida. Not only are people not getting correct information from the proper authorities, what they are getting could well be wrong — and fatally so.




..... ducks.....

No need to duck as far as I'm concerned. I've been saying essentially the same thing for quite some time. While I may not be too pleased with how information gets out over Twitter and Facebook, it's a fact, and all emergency managers can do is try to interpret the flow. I'm a great believer in hiring a bunch of 18 year old summer employees that are expert Twitter and FB users and plugging them in to let EM's know when things are going pear shaped. Very few emergency managers have the time, skill, or desire to respond to social media.

Another great quote from the story:

In a crisis, Chandler said, reading skills drop as much as four grade levels. With the average person reading at a sixth-grade level, “I cannot hire a Ph.D. from NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] to write them [advisories] for me. I need someone that can write at the sixth-grade reading level," he said. "It has to be incredibly simple."

Another thing I've been saying. There's a time for things like scientific precision and other times when actually communicating with people who are directly affected by a storm is the most important. They are not the same.
Explosive thunderstorm development shown on this 3 hour time lapse from CIMSS back on May 11...


Quoting 44. ricderr:






I remember well the 1976 rains.. I had always wondered why the Santa Ana River was so wide and the banks so tall and it never had any water in it... that year it came over its banks in spots partially because they had lined the banks with concrete which increased the flow rate significantly.


They have since added a lot of boulders and other obstacles which will reduce flow rates.

Good Rain today in S FL! :)
Quoting ricderr:
Recently I took a look at the effect big El Nino events had on the Colorado River drainage. Here's what I discovered....

great info and links there ray.....i was comparing flow rate per el nino years and found something that i looked for and didn't find when i did my rainfall totals......

in all three states......california, texas and florida...it did not matter whether the nino was classified as weak...moderate...or strong...the affects were very close no matter the strength...that was not the case when looking at the inflow numbers.....

weak el nino...avg...12000 cfs

moderate el nino...avg...13000cfs

strong el nino...avg...16000 cfs......

a huge difference between weak and strong

I think the reason is that El Nino effects on lowland rainfall get a lot attention while it's not so much for mountain snows. Almost 100% of inflows into the Colorado River are from snowmelt. Most people in the West aren't that concerned about lowland rains, and would actually prefer light to moderate amounts so there's no flooding or landslides. The amount of snow and how long it lasts is a vital concern. You can have below average rainfall but, as long as the snowpack is deep and it doesn't melt too fast, there's enough water for power and irrigation. Weak El Nino years still tend to produce heavy mountain snows while not producing flooding lowland rains, so a weak to moderate El Nino is a lot better than a strong El Nino.

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-16 1200-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
534 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...

...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO CREATE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY...

WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE
TRANSITION LATER THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL BECOME ERRATIC AND
GUSTY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ERRATIC WINDS...RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE RED
FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES TODAY.

A NUMBER OF CITIES EITHER TIED OR BROKE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS YESTERDAY. NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 95 TO 105.

DURING THIS HEAT WAVE...MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC
FLUIDS...DRESS IN LIGHTWEIGHT CLOTHING AND CHECK ON YOUR
NEIGHBORS...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY. DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN THE
ELDERLY...OR PETS IN AN AUTOMOBILE...EVEN FOR A SHORT TIME.
TEMPERATURES INSIDE VEHICLES...EVEN IF THE WINDOWS ARE PARTIALLY
OPEN...CAN QUICKLY RISE TO LIFE-THREATENING LEVELS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FIRE
DANGER.

$$

ASR
Quoting 80. JNTenne:

edited;

Do you know the location of these pics? This must be downstream of my location.
I haven't been on the trail yet, should fix that bikes tires and do it....
Quoting 60. nrtiwlnvragn:

How Twitter Will Change the Next Hurricane

Excerpt:

That's a challenge to emergency managers, said Chandler, who teaches at the nearby University of Central Florida. Not only are people not getting correct information from the proper authorities, what they are getting could well be wrong — and fatally so.




..... ducks.....


excerpt:

And, Chandler said, "we know probabilistic warnings" — such-and-such a chance a storm will strike a certain area at a certain time — don't work. Most people are baffled and confused by 'cones' of probability. You have to give people practical things to do."

Solution: Hey folks, big spinning wind thingy could give you a big ouchy if you don't get away from that place where there is a whole lot of water in one spot
Depletion of california's central valley groundwater may be causing earthquakes new study has found............Link
he focal point in the battle to tame raging wildfires in San Diego County shifted late Wednesday to the San Marcos area, where hundreds of new mandatory evacuation orders were issued and firefighters were making a stand to protect hillside homes threatened by walls of flame that illuminated the nighttime sky..

More than 9,000 acres had been charred as at least a half dozen fires burned across the county. In San Marcos, a blaze that broke out earlier Wednesday had consumed about 450 acres and destroyed at least five structures and damaged two others, fire officials said.

Wednesday night, officials issued 600 mandatory evacuation notices for San Marcos-area neighborhoods including the Elfin Forest, Indian Ridge Road and Wilgen Drive areas.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection approved two helicopters to make nighttime water drops, County Supervisor Diane Jacobs said.
Quoting 34. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters...


How close are the fires to you, ped?

Quoting 69. sar2401:


Indeed, and the period from 1982-1988 was almost a continuous El Nino, interspersed with a couple of very weak La Ninas. Not only was there above average rainfall and snow in California but the Rockies also had tremendous snowfall years. It's rare to get both things at the same time. It's snow in the Rockies that feeds the bulldog when it comes to the Colorado River. Luckily, the snowfall season in the Rockies has been above normal this year, so more Colorado River water will be available to take up some of the slack for power generation and irrigation. At least the snowfall season in the Cascades returned to normal this year, so that means Oregon and Washington will be in the position to export hydro produced electricity to California. With California having one of its (only) two major nuke plants offline, hydro power will be called on to provide more baseload generation, something it's not designed to do and, with the meager snowfall, it won't be able to do. Still, there are a few bright spots in this otherwise gloomy picture. If nothing else, Oregon and Washington electric utilities are going to make a lot of money this year.

Hi sar2401,

Re: 2014 Upper Colorado River snow and precip -- looking pretty good this spring:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport .html;jsessionid=o3CAnTqqUxQwO8FxKHruDWcN?report=U pper+Colorado+River+Basin

The important item is the last entry, water above Lake Powell. Precip sits at 101% of normal for the water year. Snow Water Equivalent is at 133%. However, the total inflow for this water year at Lake Powell is at 73% of normal and release from Lake Powell a mere 53% of normal.

And both Lake Powell and Lake Mead are just barely above 40% of full pool storage. The point being that there isn't a heck of a lot that the Colorado River can be counted on this year to accommodate the drought in California. And with the head in these reservoirs being well over 100 feet lower than at full pool, the electricity generation is going to be way below normal.

Re: Oregon and Washington --

While Washington has been getting a fair bit of precip this year, the same cannot be said of Oregon. Currently the snow water equivalent in the Klamath Basin is at 17% of normal, much like the California condition. The Wilamette and Deschutes numbers are better, but only about 50% of normal.

Re: Oregon and Washington Utilities --

The only significant transfer of power from the Pacific Northwest and California occurs over the Pacific DC Intertie Basically, you've got the BPA Columbia River Dams at one end and LADWP at the other end. I am unaware of any other significant transfers of power among the private utility companies. We've recently had a lot of wind power come on line up here in the Columbia Gorge region, but it's proven to be very problematic this time of year to get that power down to California due to congestion on the intertie and concern about killing off salmon smolts below the dams due to hyperoxygenation if the BPA spills too much water in order to displace BPA generation with that of the independent wind power generators.

Generally speaking, the Columbia River seems to be in pretty good shape for power generation this year, with the exception of the Wanapum Dam in Central Washington which is having an impact both by being drained due to a major repair in progress as well as creating some regulation problems for adjacent dams.

Quoting sar2401:

I think the reason is that El Nino effects on lowland rainfall get a lot attention while it's not so much for mountain snows. Almost 100% of inflows into the Colorado River are from snowmelt. Most people in the West aren't that concerned about lowland rains, and would actually prefer light to moderate amounts so there's no flooding or landslides. The amount of snow and how long it lasts is a vital concern. You can have below average rainfall but, as long as the snowpack is deep and it doesn't melt too fast, there's enough water for power and irrigation. Weak El Nino years still tend to produce heavy mountain snows while not producing flooding lowland rains, so a weak to moderate El Nino is a lot better than a strong El Nino.

Source? This sounds authoritative. I have no idea whether it is true or not.
Umm, new blog about this awful drought in Calif (thanks, Doc!), and people beneath cyclone Yvette in the Balkans would love to share some of the waters they get right now. Just watch this:


EuroNews: Several Bosnian cities have been affected by floods caused by heavy rains, cutting off electricity and leaving several towns and villages isolated. Army helicopters evacuated dozens of people stranded in their homes in the central town of Maglaj, where the Bosna river swelled to record levels, reaching the first floors of apartment buildings. In this video a pedestrian bridge is taken away by the floods and crashes into another bridge, seemingly getting swallowed by it.


Yvette at 850hpa (click the picture).

At least three killed after massive storm whips Balkans
Thu, 15th May 2014 15:03
Belgrade (Alliance News) - At least three people drowned in floods Thursday as a massive storm whith record rainfall and powerful winds lashed Serbia and its neigbours.
Among the victims was a homeowner who refused to be evacuated on the outskirts of Belgrade and a firefighter on a rescue operation north of the capital.
Serbia declared a nationwide state of emergency because of flooding across the country. The government said that it has asked Russia, the European Commission and Slovenia for humanitarian and technical assistance to deal with the effects of the flooding.
Within a period of 24 hours, some 120 litres of rain fell per square metre, beating a record from 1897, meteorologist Biljana Vranes said.
More than 180 litres of rain per square metre is expected to fall in the two-and-a-half days until Friday noon, compared to the monthly average for May of 70 litres.
Authorities said that more than 600 people were evacuated and that 100,000 households were without electricity. Entire towns were cut off as a precaution as water levels continued to rise.
Several major routes, including the E-75 Belgrade-Skopje highway, were submerged and impassable. The railway line to Montenegro was also interrupted.
Traffic was at a standstill in parts of Belgrade after more than 30 hours of heavy rain. Local authorities ordered schools to remain closed Thursday and Friday.
Serbia and its neighbours were at the centre of a slowly-moving cyclone, which is expected to shift to the east and then south, to the eastern Mediterranean, in the coming days.
The storm it brought was followed by a sharp drop in temperature, precipitation and gale-force winds. Snow fell in higher areas of Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia.
To the west, in Bosnia, floods forced the evacuation of hundreds of people. With roads submerged and several bridges carried away by swollen rivers, the government in Sarajevo ordered the army to deploy helicopters in rescue missions.
In Croatia, the authorities closed sections of the highway along the Adriatic coast because of the storm and the wind reaching 150 kilometres per hour.
The national meteorology service issued a "red alert" in continental Croatia, warning that the wind powerful enough to knock down trees and carry debris at a deadly speed.
Thousands of households across the region have been without electricity since Wednesday, while occasional blackouts occurred elsewhere. The cyclone was slowly moving eastward, hitting Bulgaria and Romania.
In Bulgaria, a woman has gone missing after a flood hit Knezha, a town in the north. A tornado reportedly formed on the outskirts of Sofia, damaging roofs in the suburb Chepinci.
Waters were rising in Romania between Bucharest and the Carpathian mountains, causing floods in around two dozen villages.



Foto AFP. Source (IBT) and more photos of this landslide in Bosnia: Balkans Floods: Heavy Rain Causes Landslides in Bosnia and Serbia
Bosnia has experienced its highest rainfall levels since records began 120 years ago. River levels rose all over the country, including the capital, Sarajevo.


TORNADO WARNING
FLC035-107-109-151845-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0007.140515T1748Z-140515T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
148 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
HOLLISTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOLLISTER...SATSUMA...BARDIN...PALATKA...SAN MATEO...EAST
PALATKA...BOSTWICK...ORANGE MILLS...FEDERAL POINT AND HASTINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2956 8130 2948 8178 2949 8181 2962 8190
2989 8152 2979 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 242DEG 20KT 2955 8179

$$
96 now... before noon. Yikes.
Quoting 78. sar2401:


No need to duck as far as I'm concerned. I've been saying essentially the same thing for quite some time. While I may not be too pleased with how information gets out over Twitter and Facebook, it's a fact, and all emergency managers can do is try to interpret the flow. I'm a great believer in hiring a bunch of 18 year old summer employees that are expert Twitter and FB users and plugging them in to let EM's know when things are going pear shaped. Very few emergency managers have the time, skill, or desire to respond to social media.

Another great quote from the story:

In a crisis, Chandler said, reading skills drop as much as four grade levels. With the average person reading at a sixth-grade level, “I cannot hire a Ph.D. from NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] to write them [advisories] for me. I need someone that can write at the sixth-grade reading level," he said. "It has to be incredibly simple."

Another thing I've been saying. There's a time for things like scientific precision and other times when actually communicating with people who are directly affected by a storm is the most important. They are not the same.
And could someone convince the NWS to get away from the Teletypes and move into the 20th century with caps and lower case -- much easier to read and therefore more likely to be read. Also takes up less space, and given the tradition on the Internet that all caps is SHOUTING maybe a calmer presentation would be appropriate too. Just my $.02.
I think the reason is that El Nino effects on lowland rainfall get a lot attention while it's not so much for mountain snows. Almost 100% of inflows into the Colorado River are from snowmelt. Most people in the West aren't that concerned about lowland rains, and would actually prefer light to moderate amounts so there's no flooding or landslides. The amount of snow and how long it lasts is a vital concern. You can have below average rainfall but, as long as the snowpack is deep and it doesn't melt too fast, there's enough water for power and irrigation. Weak El Nino years still tend to produce heavy mountain snows while not producing flooding lowland rains, so a weak to moderate El Nino is a lot better than a strong El Nino.


true sar...doesn't matter how much rain falls in eureka......san francisco and la...aint none of that going to wind up coming out your faucet
Quoting 94. TimSoCal:

96 now... before noon. Yikes.
yes breaking records again today..stay alert and safe out there...

Quoting 77. ricderr:
 
great info and links there ray....



ricderr,

You also might find this of interest. Rivers Flowing Into Lake Powell.

What I've been doing this winter/spring is to gauge the inflows compared to normal. As you can see, currently the flows are about 50% of normal. This has been pretty consistent (on average) for months. I rather suspect that we're not going to get a big recharge of Lake Powell this year. Quite often a good snow water equivalent number such as we have this year (133%) can be lost to evapotranspiration and sublimation. Recall that Colorado has been in long term drought and just replenishing ground water will suck up a lot of water. With 30 million people dependent on the Colorado River for some or all of their water needs, this is something needing attention to be paid. And I don't mean the kind that the Chambers of Commerce in Phoenix or Las Vegas are likely to apply.  :)
Quoting 44. ricderr:

i did some simple research about the effects of el nino as it pertains to rainfall amounts in california, texas and florida as some have made mention of those areas and how they can expect lots of rain....

of course california takes the cake as i will show at the bottom......if there's an el nino...get ready for rain...

now texas was unique as across the state...you can expect at least some areas to receive above average rainfall...and others to receive much below normal rainfall.....what you can not expect...is an average amount

in florida....in both the panhandle and south florida....above average is more likely than average or below average....but average was very close....orllando though...in an el nino year did not hae rainfall below average...however average is the norm as it happened twice as much as above average...one main difference though was above average was not that much above average where as in californai and texas.... above average totals could be as high as 300 percent of normal...i have to wonder.....if there somehow..the above average rainfall they receive in the winter...is nullified by the lack of tropical systems in the summer and the affects that has on their wet season rainfall

after i looked at california i ran into some great graphics...so i'll let them speak for themselves










Those are all coastal locations. Better to look at Sierra snowpack figures.
Quoting rayduray2013:


Hi sar2401,

Re: 2014 Upper Colorado River snow and precip -- looking pretty good this spring:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport .html;jsessionid=o3CAnTqqUxQwO8FxKHruDWcN?report=U pper Colorado River Basin

The important item is the last entry, water above Lake Powell. Precip sits at 101% of normal for the water year. Snow Water Equivalent is at 133%. However, the total inflow for this water year at Lake Powell is at 73% of normal and release from Lake Powell a mere 53% of normal.

And both Lake Powell and Lake Mead are just barely above 40% of full pool storage. The point being that there isn't a heck of a lot that the Colorado River can be counted on this year to accommodate the drought in California. And with the head in these reservoirs being well over 100 feet lower than at full pool, the electricity generation is going to be way below normal.

Re: Oregon and Washington --

While Washington has been getting a fair bit of precip this year, the same cannot be said of Oregon. Currently the snow water equivalent in the Klamath Basin is at 17% of normal, much like the California condition. The Wilamette and Deschutes numbers are better, but only about 50% of normal.

Re: Oregon and Washington Utilities --

The only significant transfer of power from the Pacific Northwest and California occurs over the Pacific DC Intertie Basically, you've got the BPA Columbia River Dams at one end and LADWP at the other end. I am unaware of any other significant transfers of power among the private utility companies. We've recently had a lot of wind power come on line up here in the Columbia Gorge region, but it's proven to be very problematic this time of year to get that power down to California due to congestion on the intertie and concern about killing off salmon smolts below the dams due to hyperoxygenation if the BPA spills too much water in order to displace BPA generation with that of the independent wind power generators.

Generally speaking, the Columbia River seems to be in pretty good shape for power generation this year, with the exception of the Wanapum Dam in Central Washington which is having an impact both by being drained due to a major repair in progress as well as creating some regulation problems for adjacent dams.


But major inflows to both Powell and Mead haven't started yet, so we'll have to see what the next two months look like. Both reservoirs are usually way below flood pool so they can retain any large inflows from a rapid snow melt. Powell has mandatory releases down the Grand Canyon, which will drain Powell somewhat but fill Mead to some degree. Both Powell and Mead, even at low levels, still contain a huge amount of water, and Hoover Dam should still be a good power producer. The water managers can take a calculated risk about summer drawdown so they can still supply generation and irrigation water, with the expectation that next winter will be good. If that doesn't happen, all bets are off.

All the power through the DC Intertie is now routed through the Independent System Operator (ISO) in California. They bid out Columbia River power to the highest bidder. The DC Intertie is actually owned by several different utilities, including PG&E, that I used to work for as a consultant. They bought a fair amount of power off the Intertie, sometimes most of the power, while the LADWP get most of their power off the Path 27 line. The problem is that the power has to be transmitted all the way south to the Sylmar Converter station and then all the way back north on PG&E lines. This is a really stupid system and, depending on system congestion, it's not even possible sometimes. BPA and the major California utilities have been lobbying for decades to build a second path for the intertie. The efforts have been frustrated by ecological and fiscal constraints. I don't know what the answer is, but California has to plan for years like we're having, and without a second path, power shortages are inevitable.
hey sar......here's a good link for you concerning colorado snow and el nino Link...seems they may not always get above average snowfall...but the larger storms are in the fall and spring...which means they are holding more water content
Quoting 46. StormTrackerScott:

I wonder if Typhoon Hiayan was the catalyst that jump started this historic Kelvin Wave to move across the Pacific? I have heard mention in regards to Typhoon Hiayan having a hand in this developing El-Nino from Scientist on several blogs. Very interesting to hear that Typhoon released such an extreme amount of heat away from the W-Pac.

The subsurface warm pool did not begin developing until January, so it's unlikely that it's related to Haiyan in any way.
Quoting 39. sar2401:


Good morning, Xulonn. I saw your reply on the other blog. Thank you for your civilized discourse as well, but I'll save it for another time.

I lived in the LA Basin from 1967 to 1977 and then in the SF Bay area until 2005. These Santa Ana events in May, while not rare, seem to be more common that when I first lived in LA. Even when there are offshore winds in spring, they usually don't make it to the coast, as they have this month. The set up appears to be a high pressure ridge over the Intermountain states and a thermal low off the coast. As long as that condition exists, they'll get strong offshore winds. It looks like the thermal trough is beginning to fill, so the winds driving these fires should start to calm down in the next 24 hours.

The other immediate issue is that there is an arsonist, or maybe several arsonists, on the loose. You don't get seven fires in one day just from carelessness. As the population of California has grown, so has the inevitable number who are mentally ill, including pyromaniacs. I'm sure the authorities are aware of this as well and are trying to track this person or persons down. In an ironic twist, the more fires that get set, the more likely they are to catch the offender(s). Not so good for people in the line of new fires, but it will put a stop to even more fires. We had this situation several times during our periodic droughts over the years, and the number of arson caused fires really started to skyrocket in the late 80's. We started running extra patrols in the hills during offshore wind events but, as you know, California's a big place. We often only caught these...uhh...suspects when they were leaving the scene of a fire they had already set.

As bad as the situation is now, it will be much worse this fall during the normal Santa Ana season. All we can do is hope for an early start to the rainy season thanks to El Nino.
Good morning to you as well, SAR.

I found it interesting that these offshore wends were so persistent and widespread that they pushed the dry heat all the way out to the Channel Islands. I just looked at the NWS satellite fog image, and there is no fog in sight from Half Moon Bay all the way down to the middle of Baja peninsula at the bottom of the image.

(You forgot to thank me for triggerig a new Masters blog entry and saving you the trouble this morning.)
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:

Dr. Kevin Trenberth is said that we may have entered a positive PDO period and the cause of this might have been Super Typhoon Hiayan. I found that as an interesting reference. Also if this is indeed the case then GW maybe in full swing for the next few years due to the PDO switching back to positive.


Pointer to where Trenberth said this? TIA.
Quoting 30. CybrTeddy:



I agree with this, something similar to the 2009-10 event.

I agree. I'm not sure how much longer any comparisons to the 1997-98 event can be made considering how much more tropical forcing the latter event had compared to now. Sure, we had a historic subsurface warm pool, which has certainly helped this El Nino to develop quickly, but more will be needed for a strong event.
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
And could someone convince the NWS to get away from the Teletypes and move into the 20th century with caps and lower case -- much easier to read and therefore more likely to be read. Also takes up less space, and given the tradition on the Internet that all caps is SHOUTING maybe a calmer presentation would be appropriate too. Just my $.02.

LOL. Something else I've been saying for a long time. Not all parts of the NWS use the teletype text any longer, and there's clearly no operational reason to do so, since nothing has been sent out by teletype in a long time. It seems some offices are more stuck in the past than others. It would also be nice if they'd stop using terms like "VORTICITY ADVECTION " and "LEE CYCLOGENESIS" in public discussions and replace them with terms the non-meteorologist might understand. The SPC seems to delight in sentences like "THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN
BACKING OF NEAR-GROUND WINDS WITH RESULTANT LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE TRACK." The average sixth grade reading level is going to be able to make a lot of sense from that. :-)
Quoting 89. Dakster:



How close are the fires to you, ped?


About 100 miles, just hit 90.4 here. 96 at KRAL and 94.8 @Indian Hill PWS
ricderr,

You also might find this of interest. Rivers Flowing Into Lake Powell.

What I've been doing this winter/spring is to gauge the inflows compared to normal. As you can see, currently the flows are about 50% of normal. This has been pretty consistent (on average) for months. I rather suspect that we're not going to get a big recharge of Lake Powell this year. Quite often a good snow water equivalent number such as we have this year (133%) can be lost to evapotranspiration and sublimation. Recall that Colorado has been in long term drought and just replenishing ground water will suck up a lot of water. With 30 million people dependent on the Colorado River for some or all of their water needs, this is something needing attention to be paid. And I don't mean the kind that the Chambers of Commerce in Phoenix or Las Vegas are likely to apply. :)



Those are all coastal locations. Better to look at Sierra snowpack figures.


well guys i was able to find data for colorado snow.....i have yet to find what i'm looking for in regrds to the sierras....just like the colorado article shows...it's not as important the amount of snow as it is the water content of the snow
109. MAstu
So the nino means that Boston will have highs in the 70s all winter long right?
The first mixed-case Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2014 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Amanda uh-MAN-duh Marie muh-REE
Boris bor-EES Norbert NOR-bert
Cristina kris-TEE-nuh Odile oh-DEAL
Douglas DUG-luss Polo POH-loh
Elida ELL-ee-dah Rachel RAY-chull
Fausto FOW-sto Simon SY-muhn
Genevieve jeh-nuh-VEEV Trudy TROO-dee
Hernan her-NAHN Vance vanss
Iselle ee-SELL Winnie WIN-ee
Julio HOO-lee-o Xavier ZAY-vee-ur
Karina kur-REE-nuh Yolanda yo-LAHN-da
Lowell LO-uhl Zeke zeek

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The
issuance times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT.
After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times
are 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlooks. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every
six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a
Special Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a Special Advisory. The Tropical Cyclone Updates, which
can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTPZ61-65
KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available on Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our east
Pacific Twitter feed is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.

$$
Forecaster Brown
[deleted, duplicate]
I agree. I'm not sure how much longer any comparisons to the 1997-98 event can be made considering how much more tropical forcing the latter event had compared to now. Sure, we had a historic subsurface warm pool, which has certainly helped this El Nino to develop quickly, but more will be needed for a strong event.

i'm not concerned with what past event it looks like....because i have not found anywhere where one event produced results across the board similar to another...i'll just sit back and look at the results...and then next year at some point....we can go over if it was like another
You might want to check out this page: Rivers Flowing Into Lake Powell


thanx ray...i will
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND TO 40 MILES WEST OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAINS AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WIND SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21025.


...MEAD
Gro should be getting some nice rains....

Quoting Xulonn:
Good morning to you as well, SAR.

I found it interesting that these offshore wends were so persistent and widespread that they pushed the dry heat all the way out to the Channel Islands. I just looked at the NWS satellite fog image, and there is no fog in sight from Half Moon Bay all the way down to the middle of Baja peninsula at the bottom of the image.

(You forgot to thank me for triggerig a new Masters blog entry and saving you the trouble this morning.)

LOL. I happened to notice that yellow box from Dr. Masters before I could start typing another "War and Peace" reply, so thank you very much.

There is some fog starting to creep in around the Bay area, and that will fill in quickly once the offshore pressure gradient relaxes. I remember being amazed sometimes when I'd go to sleep on a clear warm night and wake up to low clouds and fog. There were times I really got to hate that. This is normally the time of the "May Gray" and "June Gloom", so the strong ridge over the intermountain states is pretty unusual, as is a thermal low on the coast. I do remember this happening a couple of times when I lived in LA, but I don't remember temperatures over 100 very often. In my little bit of research, the records for Riverside, near where I lived, have been over 100 a number of times in May, but they and the record cold days are scattered from 1902 forward with no apparent pattern of more recent record highs. It does seem that the extreme temperature events have been happening more recently, but I'm not sure if that's attention effect or if the statistics really support it.
TWC has been showing the wall cloud over Miami.
Quoting ricderr:
ricderr,

You also might find this of interest. Rivers Flowing Into Lake Powell.

What I've been doing this winter/spring is to gauge the inflows compared to normal. As you can see, currently the flows are about 50% of normal. This has been pretty consistent (on average) for months. I rather suspect that we're not going to get a big recharge of Lake Powell this year. Quite often a good snow water equivalent number such as we have this year (133%) can be lost to evapotranspiration and sublimation. Recall that Colorado has been in long term drought and just replenishing ground water will suck up a lot of water. With 30 million people dependent on the Colorado River for some or all of their water needs, this is something needing attention to be paid. And I don't mean the kind that the Chambers of Commerce in Phoenix or Las Vegas are likely to apply. :)



Those are all coastal locations. Better to look at Sierra snowpack figures.


well guys i was able to find data for colorado snow.....i have yet to find what i'm looking for in regrds to the sierras....just like the colorado article shows...it's not as important the amount of snow as it is the water content of the snow

Did you check out the California Water Agency page?
Yesterday's tornado near Cedarville, OH tornado has been rated an EF3.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR CEDARVILLE IN GREENE COUNTY OHIO...

LOCATION...CEDARVILLE IN GREENE COUNTY OHIO
DATE...MAY 14 2014
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...145 MPH


* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE LOCATION OF THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
BARBER AND WEIMER ROADS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SUCH AS MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...PATH LENGTH...
BEGINNING LATITUDE AND ENDING LONGITUDE WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$$

SITES
quoting 116. sar2401
edited:
Where was is you said you lived when you were last here. Did you say La Verne?
I am right underneath this storm right now, it is very very bad.
Quoting Grothar:

So is it raining at your house or what, Gro?
Quoting PedleyCA:
quoting 116. sar2401
edited:
Where was is you said you lived when you were last here. Did you say La Verne?

I lived in Riverside, Pomona, and Diamond Bar. I always liked La Verne but could never afford to live there.
from mark grossi....earth log...california snowpack


The last four El Nino events happened in these wet seasons: a moderate one in 2002-2003, weak in 2004-2005, weak in 2006-2007 and moderate in 2009-2010.

During that time, the biggest snowpacks happened during the weak El Nino of 2004-2005 at 138% of average and the weak La Nina of 2005-2006 at 136% of average.

The two moderate events gave us 106% of average in 2009-2010 and only 70% of average in 2002-2003. The last one, the weak El Nino of 2006-2007, left the snowpack at a disappointing 45%.

And, if you were wondering, the last "monster" El Nino was in a memorable 1997-1998. California had about twice the average snowpack.

Quoting 115. GeoffreyWPB:

Gro should be getting some nice rains....




Heavy rains, but the thunder is about the loudest I've heard. Tornado warnings just south of us.
Quoting 121. PedleyCA:

quoting 116. sar2401
edited:
Where was is you said you lived when you were last here. Did you say La Verne?


I thought he said Shirley.
Quoting 106. sar2401:


LOL. Something else I've been saying for a long time. Not all parts of the NWS use the teletype text any longer, and there's clearly no operational reason to do so, since nothing has been sent out by teletype in a long time. It seems some offices are more stuck in the past than others. It would also be nice if they'd stop using terms like "VORTICITY ADVECTION " and "LEE CYCLOGENESIS" in public discussions and replace them with terms the non-meteorologist might understand. The SPC seems to delight in sentences like "THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN
BACKING OF NEAR-GROUND WINDS WITH RESULTANT LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE TRACK." The average sixth grade reading level is going to be able to make a lot of sense from that. :-)


The large type prints better on my Dot Matrix
Quoting 105. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree. I'm not sure how much longer any comparisons to the 1997-98 event can be made considering how much more tropical forcing the latter event had compared to now. Sure, we had a historic subsurface warm pool, which has certainly helped this El Nino to develop quickly, but more will be needed for a strong event.
I disagree with you both this El Nino will be like 2014. :D
Clouds are very low
TORNADO WARNING
FLC127-151945-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0012.140515T1900Z-140515T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...
EDGEWATER...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

* AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST
OF FARMTON OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EDGEWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FARMTON...EDGEWATER AND NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2910 8092 2908 8093 2907 8090 2904 8088
2903 8089 2890 8079 2889 8080 2882 8109
2883 8110 2887 8113 2910 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 238DEG 9KT 2885 8107

$$

Quoting 124. sar2401:


I lived in Riverside, Pomona, and Diamond Bar. I always liked La Verne but could never afford to live there.


When did you live in Riverside?
Quoting 123. sar2401:


So is it raining at your house or what, Gro?


Yes, We had torrential downpours last night and a number of times today. Our gauge registered 2 inches about an hour ago and it is beginning to rain heavily. There is currently a flood warning in our area.
Quoting 127. Grothar:



I thought he said Shirley.


Old person joke!
Quoting 133. Grothar:



Yes, We had torrential downpours last night and a number of times today. Our gauge registered 2 inches about an hour ago and it is beginning to rain heavily. There is currently a flood warning in our area.


Yikes, you get that ARK finished yet?
Tornado Warning

ISSUED: 3:00 PM EDT on May 15, 2014

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a * Tornado Warning for... east central Volusia County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Oak Hill...New Smyrna Beach... Edgewater... * until 345 PM EDT. * At 255 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 3 miles west of Farmton or 14 miles southwest of Edgewater...moving northeast at 25 mph. * Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Farmton...Edgewater and New Smyrna Beach.


A Rave advisory will be issued if severe weather threatens the Daytona Beach campus coordinates.

Campus Safety & Security
Quoting PedleyCA:


When did you live in Riverside?

We lived in a little condo on Arlington Avenue. It was a good location then, down the street from RCC, but we needed to find a bigger place when the first boy came along. The smog was really horrific in Riverside back then, and the neighborhood was starting to go downhill, so getting out was a good thing. Are you familiar with that area? I haven't been back there in about 25 years but I'll bet the neighborhood is really bad now.
Quoting 127. Grothar:



I thought he said Shirley.
Shirley Temple is a good drink as well as was a good movie star.
Quoting Grothar:


I thought he said Shirley.

And don't call me Shirley...:-)
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Tornado Warning

ISSUED: 3:00 PM EDT on May 15, 2014

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a * Tornado Warning for... east central Volusia County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Oak Hill...New Smyrna Beach... Edgewater... * until 345 PM EDT. * At 255 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 3 miles west of Farmton or 14 miles southwest of Edgewater...moving northeast at 25 mph. * Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Farmton...Edgewater and New Smyrna Beach.


A Rave advisory will be issued if severe weather threatens the Daytona Beach campus coordinates.

Campus Safety & Security

What's a Rave advisory? Sounds like fun. :-)
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, We had torrential downpours last night and a number of times today. Our gauge registered 2 inches about an hour ago and it is beginning to rain heavily. There is currently a flood warning in our area.

This is yet another storm that has been a prolific rainmaker. I ended up 2.92" yesterday, so a flood warning shouldn't be discounted.
Quoting Grothar:


The large type prints better on my Dot Matrix

Where do you find ribbons for those things? Don't tell me, you still have an Instamatic too. :-)
Quoting 140. sar2401:


What's a Rave advisory? Sounds like fun. :-)
That's the alert that goes out to the entire campus. We have sirens at our school when there is a tornado warning. You can get the alerts on your phone. I think there is an app for that.
Quoting 137. sar2401:


We lived in a little condo on Arlington Avenue. It was a good location then, down the street from RCC, but we needed to find a bigger place when the first boy came along. The smog was really horrific in Riverside back then, and the neighborhood was starting to go downhill, so getting out was a good thing. Are you familiar with that area? I haven't been back there in about 25 years but I'll bet the neighborhood is really bad now.


I live on the North side of the river and seldom go over in that area. I was over by that Sears store for an Appt. awhile back. Neighborhood around there seems OK. Were you on the East side of the 91?
We are really missing out on the activity over here in Fort Myers. From my location I can see the thunderstorms forming just to my East and then the move off to the Northeast.
Picked up .01" today in my weather station.

Hi guys this is my first time posting on the blog! How this Atlantic hurricane season is setting up, I think this will be somewhat a interesting hurricane season even with the low numbers. This could be a season were low numbers could lead people in a false since of nothing will happen this year. I think this year could be a mix between 1957 and 1972. The worst case this year end up is 1965 and the best case that it ends up is 1982. Keep in mind that all these years had one hurricane in the gulf of Mexico. I think we will have at less one name storm before August and one CV hurricane in the Atlantic. If any storms do affect the U.S.A. the most likely states will be 1 Florida 2 North Caroline 3 Louisiana. Home grown storms for the most part this year. Area to watch if U.S.A gets hit by a major hurricane is just east of the Bahamas with Florida at most at risk. If North Caroline was affected this year nothing more than an Hurricane Ophelia type storm. Not going to take away your house but will have you think about twice about going to the beach. You just don't see a lot of El Nino hurricanes hit NC or the east coast. Last big El Nino hurricane to hit the east coast was Bob(I don't count Florida). So for my first hurricane forecast ever I'm going with 8/4/2. Remember it only takes one!

Rescue operations in Maglaj. Very dire situation as the aerial view shows.

Hope they won't have to come and fetch you too, Gro. Webcam at your place (choose NE cam) look a bit, hmm, grey, with thunder audio to boot ;-)
West Palm Beach in the donut hole...

Nice beach weather at Cocoa Beach.

Quoting sar2401:

Where do you find ribbons for those things? Don't tell me, you still have an Instamatic too. :-)
In the late 70's, a 6 story office building went up on the lot next to the buildng I worked in. The entire skin was glass and reflective material, so many people referred to it as the flash-cube building. Probably not a lot of people on here who have seen, much less used, a flash cube - you, me, Gro, Pottery ........
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:

Quoting 80. JNTenne:

edited;

Do you know the location of these pics? This must be downstream of my location.
I haven't been on the trail yet, should fix that bikes tires and do it....
Hey Ped.. these would be in the Santa Ana/Anaheim area.. I used to live close to the Hamilton Street bridge in HB and ride all the way up the river trail on weekends.. it was really nice when the Santa Ana winds would be blowing because I wouldn't have to peddle all the way back!
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yikes, you get that ARK finished yet?
Gro probably has the original plans.

Yeah, I know, an easy one, but somebody had to say it. :-)
Quoting FLwolverine:
In the late 70's, a 6 story office building went up on the lot next to the buildng I worked in. The entire skin was glass and reflective material, so many people referred to it as the flash-cube building. Probably not a lot of people on here who have seen, much less used, a flash cube - you, me, Gro, Pottery ........

Yep.
Memories of that, then came Polaroid…..
In the late 70's, a 6 story office building went up on the lot next to the buildng I worked in. The entire skin was glass and reflective material, so many people referred to it as the flash-cube building. Probably not a lot of people on here who have seen, much less used, a flash cube - you, me, Gro, Pottery ........


am i the only one who liked the way they smelled after they went off?
Quoting ricderr:
In the late 70's, a 6 story office building went up on the lot next to the buildng I worked in. The entire skin was glass and reflective material, so many people referred to it as the flash-cube building. Probably not a lot of people on here who have seen, much less used, a flash cube - you, me, Gro, Pottery ........


am i the only one who liked the way they smelled after they went off?
LOL, nope.
Yikes, you get that ARK finished yet?
Gro probably has the original plans.



on stone tablets no less
This is starting to get ridiculous now, yesterday we had freezing rain with 75 degree temperature and today we have a heat index of 125. Talk about a wild swing in weather, who knows tomorrow we might have 100 mph. winds?

Largo, FL
3:37 PM EDT on May 15, 2014 (GMT -0400) Taylor Park area (KFLLARGO19) Elev 62 ft | 27.91 °N, 82.81 °W | Change Station
Current weather conditions updated 9 min 17 sec ago

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
89.2 °F
Feels Like 125 °F
N4.2
Wind from ESE

This graph is out of control. 102 now, with a couple hours of heating left.
Quoting 152. JNTenne:

Hey Ped.. these would be in the Santa Ana/Anaheim area.. I used to live close to the Hamilton Street bridge in HB and ride all the way up the river trail on weekends.. it was really nice when the Santa Ana winds would be blowing because I wouldn't have to peddle all the way back!


My part of the river has a lot less concrete. Your right it is wide and lots of stuff growing in there.
Surprised that there hasn't been any fires in there lately. Yes, better not suggest it....lol
Yep.
Memories of that, then came Polaroid…..


they still have them.....jessica likes to have a pic of her clients in their charts as she does better with faces than names....we take them with a polaroid.......a lot easier than taking a digital...downloading and then printing
Quoting 122. FIUStormChaser:

I am right underneath this storm right now, it is very very bad.


bird road.. coral way?
Quoting ricderr:
Yep.
Memories of that, then came Polaroid…..

br>they still have them.....jessica likes to have a pic of her clients in their charts as she does better with faces than names....we take them with a polaroid.......a lot easier than taking a digital...downloading and then printing

I didn't know that !
Yeah, they had/have plenty of uses.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:33 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
97.2F
Clear
Humidity: 5%
Dew Point: 15F

Wind: 8.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 92F

I think the weather thingy at the Airport melted (96 as of 10:53) and nothing since.
93.4F at my place. No AC just the water cooler and a small fan..... edited to make sense...
Taylor Park area, Largo, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3:43 PM EDT on May 15, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
89.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 8.3 mph from the SE
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 129 °F

YIKES, why I live in Calif.....
89.2 F
Feels Like 125 F


i take that back...it might be possible...let me check it by hand


Quoting PedleyCA:
Taylor Park area, Largo, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3:43 PM EDT on May 15, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
89.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 8.3 mph from the SE
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 129 °F

YIKES, why I live in Calif.....


That's Dread.
Quoting 167. ricderr:

89.2 °F
Feels Like 125 °F


it's a mistake...not mathematically possible.....


Yeah something is wrong with that station, some days it will report temperatures in the mid 90s when surrounding areas are in the upper 80s.
Quoting 143. sar2401:


Where do you find ribbons for those things? Don't tell me, you still have an Instamatic too. :-)


you can get them online. Believe it or not they are still very much used. And yes, I have an instamatic yet, which we still use.

1829 1 WSW VIRGINIA GARDENS MIAMI-DADE FL 2580 8031 AIRPORT TOWER OFFICIALS REPORTED TORNADO 1 MILE WEST OF THEM AND CONTINUED NORTHEAST UNTIL 237 PM. (MFL)
Quoting FLwolverine:
In the late 70's, a 6 story office building went up on the lot next to the buildng I worked in. The entire skin was glass and reflective material, so many people referred to it as the flash-cube building. Probably not a lot of people on here who have seen, much less used, a flash cube - you, me, Gro, Pottery ........

Oh, yeah, I used to buy flash cubes by the box at Costco. That was back when Costco and me were a lot younger. :-)
Yeah something is wrong with that station, some days it will report temperatures in the mid 90s when surrounding areas are in the upper 80s.


it's reporting 98 percent humidity....which does work out to that heat index....but nowhere else is reporting humidity anywhere near that...and with partly cloudy skies...it just doesn't make sense....well...unless a dog just peed on the gauge
Quoting Grothar:


you can get them online. Believe it or not they are still very much used. And yes, I have an instamatic yet, which we still use.


Ah, good, it's always nice to have another Luddite around.
Oh, yeah, I used to buy flash cubes by the box at Costco. That was back when Costco and me were a lot younger.

is costco that old?....now i feel old too
That sinkhole in front of my house has been "fixed". Borough officials came and filled most of it. But I suspect they did not take their time because they left a fairly large hole in the side that slants downward underneath the street. So all the rain I am expecting tonight and tomorrow is going to flow down that hole and erode underneath the street. -_- If you are going to do it, do it right please people.
Quoting 134. Dragod66:



Old person joke!
I resemble that remark!
Quoting 100. sar2401:
Both Powell and Mead, even at low levels, still contain a huge amount of water, and Hoover Dam should still be a good power producer. The water managers can take a calculated risk about summer drawdown so they can still supply generation and irrigation water, with the expectation that next winter will be good. If that doesn't happen, all bets are off.

All the power through the DC Intertie is now routed through the Independent System Operator (ISO) in California. They bid out Columbia River power to the highest bidder. The DC Intertie is actually owned by several different utilities, including PG&E, that I used to work for as a consultant. They bought a fair amount of power off the Intertie, sometimes most of the power, while the LADWP get most of their power off the Path 27 line. The problem is that the power has to be transmitted all the way south to the Sylmar Converter station and then all the way back north on PG&E lines. This is a really stupid system and, depending on system congestion, it's not even possible sometimes. BPA and the major California utilities have been lobbying for decades to build a second path for the intertie. The efforts have been frustrated by ecological and fiscal constraints. I don't know what the answer is, but California has to plan for years like we're having, and without a second path, power shortages are inevitable.

sar,

I'm currently reading "Dead Pool" by J.M Powell.  One of my more surprising discoveries is that the outlet from Glen Canyon dam is fully 237 feet above the river bottom at the dam. What that means, in plain English, is that at the point where not one more drop of water can be gotten out of Lake Powell, there's going to be 4 million acre feet of trapped water (or sediment?) below the outlet invert. Fascinating to think about the engineering logic here. I guess it makes a good sand trap if the Gods are playing golf.

Thanks so much for your comments about PG&E's involvement in the Pacific DC Intertie. As always, life is just more complicated than it appears at first glance.
UK flooding: EA chief floats homes on stilts idea
BBC, 15 May 2014 Last updated at 19:15 GMT
Developers should consider building "floating" houses to deal with rising flood waters, the chairman of the Environment Agency has suggested.
Lord Smith faced criticism over the agency's response to the extreme weather which hit large areas of Britain over the winter.
In a magazine interview he said a "silver lining" of the severe weather was more money for flood defences.
But he told the House a ban on building on flood plains was impractical.
These included the possible construction of Dutch-style homes which could float above the rising waters.
"There are some really exciting things that are emerging. There's a rather wonderful technology in Holland where effectively you allow the house to float," he told the House magazine.
"It looks just like an ordinary house but all the connections are flexible and in the event that flooding occurs basically the house just lifts with the water.
Lord Smith Lord Smith said a "silver lining" of the winter floods was increased funding
"That's probably quite an extreme example, but it's that sort of innovative thinking we need to be having more of."
Lord Smith, who admitted he gets "very nervous when it starts raining heavily", praised the "astonishing" job done by Environment Secretary Owen Paterson on flood defence. ...


According to the news today these houses could be a best seller in the future - except in Calif of course ...
Quoting barbamz:

Rescue operations in Maglaj. Very dire situation as the aerial view shows.

Hope they won't have to come and fetch you too, Gro. Webcam at your place (choose NE cam) look a bit, hmm, grey, with thunder audio to boot ;-)
The flooding looks bad but I'm glad to see that they are using those old Ruskie helicopters for peaceful purposes. That area was the scene of some terrible fighting during the civil war.
Sunny and pouring rain here in Sebring....ya gotta love it!
Quoting 141. sar2401:


This is yet another storm that has been a prolific rainmaker. I ended up 2.92" yesterday, so a flood warning shouldn't be discounted.


Well, we just passed 3 inches. Now don't come back and tell me you got 3.1 :)
Quoting 166. PedleyCA:

Taylor Park area, Largo, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3:43 PM EDT on May 15, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
89.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 8.3 mph from the SE
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 129 °F

YIKES, why I live in Calif.....


That's suspect data to me, 98% relative humidity at a temp of 89.8 almost never exists. People often say "100% relative humidity, but since relative humidity is relative, lower relative humidity is needed for a given moisture level.

Also, as air gets much warmer, the moisture near the ground when its cooler and stable rises, the combination of rising of moisture and warm temperatures having a much higher moisture capacity makes relative humidity near 100% nearly impossible in an outdoor Environment. It might be possible to get relative humidity that high with a temp of 90 under a thick jungle canopy on a very humid day after heavy rain, but weather stations shouldn't be hiding beneath a jungle canopy, lol.


To get dewpoints even into the 80's with summer heat typically requires a strong ridge of capping high pressure that moves over a region that has high soil moisture. Otherwise, even the most moist airmasses with heavy rain and thunderstorms won't have dewpoints that high as an unstable airmass will allow that moisture to rise. Typically that's why upper 70's to near 80 is generally the upper end of dew points in unstable tropical airmasses that support convection.
Quoting 182. sar2401:

The flooding looks bad but I'm glad to see that they are using those old Ruskie helicopters for peaceful purposes. That area was the scene of some terrible fighting during the civil war.


Sure, Sar. I've been to Croatia for the first time three years ago, and in the hinterland I saw a lot of damaged houses still with the bullet holes.

Quoting 108. ricderr:

ricderr,
Better to look at Sierra snowpack figures.

well guys i was able to find data for colorado snow.....i have yet to find what i'm looking for in regrds to the sierras....just like the colorado article shows...it's not as important the amount of snow as it is the water content of the snow
Try: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.acti on
 
CA statewide snow water equivalent = 1.5 inches

Percentage of normal = 9%

***
See also reservoir fill info:

Oroville is much better off this year than in 1977 Scroll down for storage level chart  Shasta is also comfortably above the percentage full level of the drought year, 1977.

Five dead in worst floods to hit Serbia, Bosnia in 120 years

“This is the greatest flooding disaster ever. Not only in the past 100 years; this has never happened in Serbia’s history,” Serbia’s Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic told a news conference. “More rain fell in one day than in four months.”

Link

The stats – ( Which brings up a good question, anybody know these conversion rates ? )
BELGRADE – The daily rainfall measured on Thursday is the new record in the history of rainfall monitoring, with 107.9 litres per square metre in Belgrade, 110 litres per square metre in Loznica and 108.2 litres per square metre in Valjevo, shows the report of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia.

Link
Quoting 167. ricderr:

89.2 �F
Feels Like 125 �F


i take that back...it might be possible...let me check it by hand





Use this, NOAA/NWS Heat Index calculator
Quoting 172. sar2401:


Oh, yeah, I used to buy flash cubes by the box at Costco. That was back when Costco and me were a lot younger. :-)


Price Club....lol
Quoting rayduray2013:

sar,

I'm currently reading "Dead Pool" by J.M Powell.  One of my more surprising discoveries is that the outlet from Glen Canyon dam is fully 237 feet above the river bottom at the dam. What that means, in plain English, is that at the point where not one more drop of water can be gotten out of Lake Powell, there's going to be 4 million acre feet of trapped water (or sediment?) below the outlet invert. Fascinating to think about the engineering logic here. I guess it makes a good sand trap if the Gods are playing golf.

Thanks so much for your comments about PG&E's involvement in the Pacific DC Intertie. As always, life is just more complicated than it appears at first glance.

You've got it right about the outlet. They calculated the siltation before they built that dam and figured the lower outlet would remain above the silt until about 2150. Unfortunately, they were a little off, and it now appears it will be more like 2050. They are able to dispose of some of the siltation by "back flushing" when they open everything up for periodic downstream flooding of the Canyon, but that's not working out as well as they hoped. The dam almost failed in 1983 from huge inflows. They repaired and improved the two spillways that failed but the lower outlet is still that last line of defense. No one is quite sure how to handle the siltation, since the 2150 estimate would have been at the end of economic life of the dam, after which the dam would be breached, allowing all the silt to flow downstream, and they'd build a new dam in front of the demolished structure. Amazing how they thought about such things in 1956. No one is quite sure what to do about the silt now. It's not economic to excavate it, and there's nowhere to put the spoils if you could. All they can do at this point is hope for more good water years and be able to discharge some of the sediment downstream. No matter what, it looks like the dam will have to be taken out of service by about 2100 and somehow breached after drawdown without totally destroying the riparian habitats downstream. I'm glad I'm retired and don't have to work on projects like that now.

Distribution of electric power is way more complicated than most people understand. About a million things have to go right 24/7/365 to reliably supply power. After having worked in the industry, I'm just pleasantly surprised every time I flip a switch and milk doesn't shot out. :-)
Quoting 173. ricderr:

Yeah something is wrong with that station, some days it will report temperatures in the mid 90s when surrounding areas are in the upper 80s.


it's reporting 98 percent humidity....which does work out to that heat index....but nowhere else is reporting humidity anywhere near that...and with partly cloudy skies...it just doesn't make sense....well...unless a dog just peed on the gauge


That makes sense, I saw my station had 100% one day and I thought damn that's weird, but I was washing off the outside of the building and forgot to remove the sensors and wetted them down good, but, hey I know it works....
Quoting PedleyCA:


Price Club....lol

You're right, it was Price Club. I'd forgotten it was even called that until you brought it up. Man, how time flies.
Quoting 175. sar2401:


Ah, good, it's always nice to have another Luddite around.


I've never used a Luddite. I always stuck with Kodak.
Quoting Grothar:


Well, we just passed 3 inches. Now don't come back and tell me you got 3.1 :)

No, no rain today, but it rained for about 6 hours straight yesterday, so I'm not surprised to hear you're over 3 inches now. I was thinking about getting some catfish for the front yard lake but, alas, it's gone today.
Quoting 166. PedleyCA:

Taylor Park area, Largo, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3:43 PM EDT on May 15, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
89.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 8.3 mph from the SE
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 129 °F

YIKES, why I live in Calif.....

Now then Pedley, what's all this about a huge oil spill In your area?
We only have the European news to go by and we don't necessarily want to start believing them but it seems that the streets of LA and probably the drainage system is now full of crude oil?

Link

Good job you are not having fires in your zone at the same time!

60 MPH ( 102 KPH) winds in our zone but few fires as of yet, a bit early.
Quoting Grothar:


I've never used a Luddite. I always stuck with Kodak.

A Luddite is much better, but the darn thing would have a mind of its own, and would start roaming the house at night, breaking things up. I finally had to send it back to England for a refund.
Quoting barbamz:


Sure, Sar. I've been to Croatia for the first time three years ago, and in the hinterland I saw a lot of damaged houses still with the bullet holes.

Yes, when I was first there in 1995, the fighting had recently ended in some parts of Croatia and Bosnia. Thank goodness Slovenia managed to escape most of that. After seeing what happened in Croatia particularly, I must confess I've never been very fond of the Serbs since.
Guys, good night, I have to hit the cushions early today and am supposed to sit behind an uncomfortable table at a book fair nearly the whole weekend ;-) So few European updates from my side in the next days.

If you are interested in European tornados, shelf, wall and funnel clouds and all the related stuff like lightning and flooding you may visit the following facebook site "Severe weather Europe" which I've detected only recently and which is in English. It's public so you won't have to be a member of facebook in order to look at it.

Link

Quoting 192. sar2401:


You've got it right about the outlet. They calculated the siltation before they built that dam and figured the lower outlet would remain above the silt until about 2150. Unfortunately, they were a little off, and it now appears it will be more like 2050.

sar,

The Glen Canyon Dam's concrete structure ought to last 1,000 years, barring a 9.4 earthquake in the neighborhood. The guts can get replaced. I do not believe that the decision will be taken to knock the dam down. Just look at the wild escalation in prices. Here's a comparable. Hoover Dam was built for about $48 Million in the mid-1930s. In today's dollars that would be about $800 Million. Compare that to the third water inlet in Lake Mead for the Las Vegas water supply. Just that little tube alone is costing well north of $1 Billion. It would be nuts to knock down the Glen Canyon dam just because of silt.

The solution will end up looking something like this.


Quoting 198. PlazaRed:


Now then Pedley, what's all this about a huge oil spill In your area?
We only have the European news to go by and we don't necessarily want to start believing them but it seems that the streets of LA and probably the drainage system is now full of crude oil?

Link

Good job you are not having fires in your zone at the same time!

60 MPH ( 102 KPH) winds in our zone but few fires as of yet, a bit early.


Yup, I found this on the KTLA.com site 10,000-Gallon Crude Oil Spill Prompts Evacuation of L.A. Strip Club
Quoting 134. Dragod66:



Old person joke!

And don't call me Shirley.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 1:53 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
101 °F
Clear
Humidity: 4%
Dew Point: 9 °F

Wind: 8 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:48 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
97.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 5%
Dew Point: 16 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 92 °F

97.0 here......
Here's an extract I got for a link on post 17 which had to be copied and pasted, which wasn't very easy, as it did not work too well.
The book is called:-
The West Without Water.
B. Lynn Ingram (Author), Frances Malamud-Roam (Author)

"Soils have made California one of the most important agricultural centers in the world, generating $30 billion per year. More than half of the fruits, nuts, and vegetables consumed in the United States are grown on some 87,500 farms in California's Central Valley."

This is the link which seems to work and you can read the first chapter which is interesting.

Link

Anybody who has a bit of time might find this interesting, I did.
The Cedarville, Ohio tornado has been rated a preliminary EF3. Path length of 9 miles and path width of 400 yards.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

..TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR CEDARVILLE IN GREENE COUNTY OHIO

LOCATION...NEAR CEDARVILLE IN GREENE COUNTY OHIO
DATE...MAY 14 2014
ESTIMATED TIME...5:44 PM TO 603 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...145 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...400 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...9 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.6808N / -83.8480W
ENDING LAT/LON...39.7753N / -83.7333W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

..SUMMARY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR CEDARVILLE IN GREENE COUNTY OHIO ON MAY 14 2014.

A DAMAGE SURVEY COMPLETED BY A TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE GREENE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTOR AND CEDARVILLE POLICE DEPT. CONFIRMED
AN EF3 TORNADO OCCURRED THURSDAY EVENING IN GREENE COUNTY.

THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN IN A FIELD JUST WEST OF
STRINGTOWN ROAD WHERE MINOR TREE DAMAGE...ROOF DAMAGE TO A
HOME...AND DAMAGE TO A CAMPER OCCURRED. DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS
CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 75 MPH...EF0 ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED ACROSS US HIGHWAY 35 AND FEDERAL ROAD WHERE
A FARMSTEAD WAS STRUCK. A BARN AT THIS LOCATION SUSTAINED HEAVY
DAMAGE WITH MUCH OF THE ROOF BEING REMOVED AS WELL AS SOME WALL
FAILURE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS LOCATION WERE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND
85 MPH...EF0 ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED HIGHWAY 72 AND DAMAGED A PROPERTY
HEAVILY. AT THIS LOCATION...SEVERAL FENCES AND OUTBUILDINGS WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THE RESIDENTIAL HOME HAD WINDOWS BLOWN
OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. ROOF DAMAGE WAS ALSO SEEN ON
NEARBY BARNS...AND SEVERAL LARGE TREES ON THE PROPERTY WERE
SNAPPED OFF AND BROKEN. A TRAILER WAS ALSO TIPPED OVER. WIND
SPEEDS AT THIS LOCATION WERE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 105 MPH...EF1
ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

ON NEARBY TURNBULL ROAD NEAR A STONE QUARRY...THE TORNADO HEAVILY
DAMAGED ANOTHER PROPERTY. HERE...A DETATCHED GARAGE WAS COMPLETELY
DESTROYED. A SMALL PICKUP TRUCK WAS BRIEFLY LIFTED AND DRAGGED
FROM ITS LOCATION IN THE GARAGE TO THE MIDDLE OF A FIELD ABOUT 75
YARDS AWAY. SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE WAS FOUND TO THE HOME AT THE
PROPERTY...WITH NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. A LAWN TRACTOR WAS THROWN
AND DEPOSITED SEVERAL HUNDRED YARDS AWAY. A CONVERGENT PATTERN IN
THE FIELD DEBRIS /BEAN STUBBLE/ JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PROPERTY
SHOWED THE PATH OF THE ACTUAL TORNADO. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS
LOCATION WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 MPH...EF2 ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED THE STONE QUARRY AND
INTENSIFIED...HITTING A FARMSTEAD ON BARBER ROAD DIRECTLY.
HERE...COMPLETE LOSS OF A RESIDENTIAL HOME /BUILT IN THE 1880S/
WAS OBSERVED. ALL EXTERIOR WALLS FAILED AND THE HOME COLLAPSED
WHICH LED TO VERY LITTLE INTERIOR WALL INTEGRITY REMAINING. A
CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE FOUNDATION FOUND VERY LITTLE REINFORCEMENT
FOR THE EXTERIOR WALLS. HEALTHY HARDWOOD TREES WERE DEBARKED AND
REDUCED TO TRUNKS WITH ONLY STUBS OF LARGE BRANCHES REMAINING. SEVERAL
LARGE GRAIN SILOS WERE COMPLETELY LIFTED AND THROWN WELL
DOWNSTREAM /UP TO A HALF MILE/. SEVERAL BARNS WERE COMPLETELY
DESTROYED. AN AVERAGE OF DAMAGE INDICATORS AT THIS LOCATION
SUGGESTS A WIND SPEED OF 145 MPH...EF3 ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

THE TORNADO THEN HIT A RESIDENCE FURTHER NORTHEAST ON BARBER
ROAD...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE EXTERIOR WALLS WERE REMOVED AS WELL
AS THE ROOF. EXTENSIVE MUD SPATTER COVERED ALL FOUR SIDES OF THE
RESIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS LOCATION WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 135
MPH...HIGH-END EF2 ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

FROM THERE THE TORNADO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVED PARALLEL
TO TOWNSLEY ROAD AND DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM LOCATIONS COVERED FARM
FIELDS AS IT FELL OUT OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION. A BARN ON
TOWNSLEY ROAD SUFFERED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE...WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
HERE AT 80 MPH...OR EF0 ON THE DAMAGE SCALE.

THE TORNADO CROSSED TOWNSLEY ROAD WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED SCOUR
PATH THROUGH BEAN AND CORN STUBBLE. THE TORNADO WEAKENED AND
LIFTED VERY CLOSE TO THE CLARK/GREENE COUNTY LINE AS A LITTLE MORE
DEBRIS FELL OUT OF THE ROTATING STORM INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CLARK COUNTY.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.
PWS near me is currently measuring 106.2. The highest temp it measured in all of 2013 was 106.9.
Everyone thought the scud cloud was a funnel cloud in northern V.A.People were flipping.Anywho the heavy rain is about to move in.Here comes the flooding..so much for that basement re-do...

P.S I was plusser 29.Someone has to be plusser 30.
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:

Everyone thought the scud cloud was a funnel cloud in northern V.A.People were flipping.Anywho the heavy rain is about to move in.Here comes the flooding..so much for that basement re-do...

P.S I was plusser 29.Someone has to be plusser 30.


Or 31, I always forget to + the post, well till you remind me ... lol
Quoting rayduray2013:

sar,

The Glen Canyon Dam's concrete structure ought to last 1,000 years, barring a 9.4 earthquake in the neighborhood. The guts can get replaced. I do not believe that the decision will be taken to knock the dam down. Just look at the wild escalation in prices. Here's a comparable. Hoover Dam was built for about $48 Million in the mid-1930s. In today's dollars that would be about $800 Million. Compare that to the third water inlet in Lake Mead for the Las Vegas water supply. Just that little tube alone is costing well north of $1 Billion. It would be nuts to knock down the Glen Canyon dam just because of silt.

The solution will end up looking something like this.



If they can't keep the silt clear from the lower outlet, it would become a dam safety issue with FERC, and something would have to be done. What would be done, no one knows yet. The intention would not be to abandon the dam, but the amount of silt is up in the millions of cubic yards. One of the dams in the PG&E system had about 500 cubic yards of silt that had be removed and it was a seven year nightmare to finally get all the permits. Very few environmentalist in this country would approve of the Chinese solution headed down the Grand Canyon.
Quoting 210. PedleyCA:



Or 31, I always forget to + the post, well till you remind me ... lol
Lol.I see TWA13 was plusser 30.I see more people are becoming aware.It's windy and unfriendly outside.
Shocked SciFi hasn't come out with a flick called Firenado.
Quoting 166. PedleyCA:

Taylor Park area, Largo, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3:43 PM EDT on May 15, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
89.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 8.3 mph from the SE
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 129 °F

YIKES, why I live in Calif.....


An 89F dewpoint would be exceptional. Even in Florida I have not seen a reliable measurement above 87F.
Quoting Doppler22:

We never got any kind of watch yesterday and ended up with two tornadoes and a bunch of severe thunderstorms. This system has been a little more potent than was thought.
Quoting weatherbro:
Shocked SciFi hasn't come out with a flick called Firenado.

Great, now there's someone from TWC that monitors this blog running off to a producer...:-)
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:
Everyone thought the scud cloud was a funnel cloud in northern V.A.People were flipping.Anywho the heavy rain is about to move in.Here comes the flooding..so much for that basement re-do...

P.S I was plusser 29.Someone has to be plusser 30.


Here is a good explainer from NWS Tampa Bay Twitter page showing the difference between scud, wall clouds, and funnels.

Link
According to the UK news, they are expecting an heat wave tomorrow into the weekend.
Temps could sore as high as the 20/C

Below is one of the headlines, with that I'll bid you all good night, with the temps in Seville at a mere 23/C at 10 past midnight here.


"Light up BBQ... it's going to be a scorcher!


Supermarkets predict a run on meat as temperatures head into the 20s"

Afternoon everybody
Quoting 218. Chucktown:



Here is a good explainer from NWS Tampa Bay Twitter page showing the difference between scud, wall clouds, and funnels.

Link
People are not as educated around here on the different storms clouds as someone in Tampa would be.They thought the last time when we were flooding that a "rain tornado" was going to be unleashing all the rain.Please don't laugh at the ignorance displayed in my area.
Quoting 212. sar2401:


If they can't keep the silt clear form the lower outlet, it would become a dam safety issue with FERC, and something would have to be done. What would be done, no one knows yet. The intention would not be to abandon the dam, but the amount of silt is up in the millions of cubic yards. One of the dams in the PG&E system had about 500 cubic yards of silt that had be removed and it was a seven year nightmare to finally get all the permits. Very few environmentalist in this country would approve of the Chinese solution headed down the Grand Canyon.
I know how to do it with out the damage, but it costs money. I am not giving this idea up for free, as I plan to utilize it for profit. The entire concept of needing another countries plans are laughable.
Quoting PlazaRed:
According to the UK news, they are expecting an heat wave tomorrow into the weekend.
Temps could sore as high as the 20/C

Below is one of the headlines, with that I'll bid you all good night, with the temps in Seville at a mere 23/C at 10 past midnight here.


"Light up BBQ... it's going to be a scorcher!


Supermarkets predict a run on meat as temperatures head into the 20s"



20C Heatwave, too funny,
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 2:53 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
101 °F / 38 °C
Clear
Humidity: 4%
Dew Point: 3 °F / -16 °C

Wind: 4 mph / 6 km/h / 1.5 m/s Variable
Pressure: 29.91 in / 1013 hPa (Falling)

Posted from the Old WU
Quoting 147. HurricaneTownes013:

Hi guys this is my first time posting on the blog! How this Atlantic hurricane season is setting up, I think this will be somewhat a interesting hurricane season even with the low numbers. This could be a season were low numbers could lead people in a false since of nothing will happen this year. I think this year could be a mix between 1957 and 1972. The worst case this year end up is 1965 and the best case that it ends up is 1982. Keep in mind that all these years had one hurricane in the gulf of Mexico. I think we will have at less one name storm before August and one CV hurricane in the Atlantic. If any storms do affect the U.S.A. the most likely states will be 1 Florida 2 North Caroline 3 Louisiana. Home grown storms for the most part this year. Area to watch if U.S.A gets hit by a major hurricane is just east of the Bahamas with Florida at most at risk. If North Caroline was affected this year nothing more than an Hurricane Ophelia type storm. Not going to take away your house but will have you think about twice about going to the beach. You just don't see a lot of El Nino hurricanes hit NC or the east coast. Last big El Nino hurricane to hit the east coast was Bob(I don't count Florida). So for my first hurricane forecast ever I'm going with 8/4/2. Remember it only takes one!
Hello Towens, welcome to the blog. If you need anything from us, jus ask us the questions. Remember,check out the rules for more information regarding the blog's policies and experience. This will be your first hurricane season, it's going to be the best and warming hurricane season for you. :) :)
Quoting 220. bigwes6844:

Afternoon everybody

Good afternoon Big. :) well I see we are currently in the minus phase of the MJO pulse, but I expect a storm or 3 in the Pacific and at least one in the Atlantic.

glad this thing wasn't wrapped up tight or it would have made a direct hit on my house
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Good afternoon Big. :) well I see we are currently in the minus phase of the MJO pulse, but I expect a storm or 3 in the Pacific and at least one in the Atlantic.
Yea It was a bit darker yesterday now its very light with the MJO coming across in a couple of days
Quoting 262. ColoradoBob1:

Back to the real world -

Climate Change and a Mangled Jet Stream: Historic May Deluge for Bosnia and Serbia

Over the past week, a powerful heat dome high pressure system grew ever-more-entrenched over a region just north of the Caspian Sea. This sprawling high pushed an extreme amplitude ridge pattern north toward Arctic Russia, Scandinavia, and the Kara and Barents Seas. Behind this ridge, toward Central and Eastern Europe, a deep trough dipole pattern developed. A cold and unstable pit in the atmosphere hungry for storms and drawing in energy from the far-north Arctic near Svalbard.

By late Tuesday, the deep pit had fallen down into a cut-off and powerful low pressure system, wringing out the moisture spilling off the heat dome high. By today, that system had turned into a kind of inland hurricane as it dumped as much as four months worth of rainfall in less than 40 hours over broad sections of Bosnia and Serbia.


by ROBERT SCRIBBLER

The stalled systems we are seeing here, and in Europe must give Dr. Fran some sort of grim vindication. I find it remarkable , that one can pose hypotheises, and the natural world
just mirrors what she forecast. Her paper may mark the end of the old jet stream , because we haven’t seen it months , and every month as the seasons change, the loops to the south seem to be getting deeper.
Brief tornado touchdown in western Durham (NC) a while ago. Reports of trees and power lines down.
Quoting 235. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Brief tornado touchdown in western Durham (NC) a while ago. Reports of trees and power lines down.

that rotation just passed direc tly over my house. definitely not on the ground amymore. see above post.
Impossible to Conserve Nature As Is, Thanks to Climate Change

A U.S. government-backed guide for land managers says global warming requires a fundamental shift in conservation

When President Theodore Roosevelt visited the Grand Canyon in 1903, he famously admonished the attending crowd to avoid meddling with the landscape. "Leave it as it is. You cannot improve on it," he said. True to Roosevelt's message, America's conservationists have since focused on maintaining the status quo, or at least restoring ecosystems to their natural state.

But due to the growing impacts of climate change, this can no longer continue, according to a new guide for land managers backed by multiple state and federal agencies.

"Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management in conservation," states the document, released yesterday by the National Wildlife Federation in partnership with the National Park Service, U.S. EPA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey and several other federal agencies and nongovernmental organizations.

"While managers traditionally have looked to the past for inspiration, increasingly we will be faced with future conditions that may have no historical analogs," it states.

The guide is intended to demystify climate adaptation for habitat and wildlife managers. It provides a step-by-step process evaluating how ecosystems may be vulnerable to climate change and how conservation goals might be altered for the best possible outcome.

'No longer possible' to maintain nature's status quo
But the guide's authors stress the "best possible outcome" may mean ecosystems that look very different from how they did in the past.

"It is going to be a very big shift over the coming decades," said Bruce Stein, the National Wildlife Federation's director for climate change adaptation, who helped edit the guide.

"There's going to be places where we're going to try to do our utmost to keep it the way it is," Stein said, "... but that's not going to be possible indefinitely; in fact in some places and for some things, it's not possible even now."

Climate-change-related conservation decisions have already proved contentious.

Scientists sharply disagree about whether to introduce new wolves to Isle Royale National Park in Lake Michigan to breed with the current pack, which is inbred and in decline. Proponents of a "genetic rescue" claim that ice bridges to the mainland are forming less frequently as the planet warms, meaning the wolves can't breed with outside populations. Others say the decline would have happened even without climate change (ClimateWire, Dec. 3, 2013).

As with the case of Isle Royale, getting all stakeholders on board with future conservation decisions isn't going to be easy, Stein said.

"If there's one thing we've learned in the conservation community, it's that you need that broad collaboration," he said. "That's going to be especially tough as we increasingly are called on to make hard choices."

Aiming at a moving target
But according to T. Douglas Beard Jr., chief of USGS's National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, it is important for land managers to dive into climate change adaptation, even though future impacts aren't entirely predictable.

"We actually learn by doing—you put something in place, and then you evaluate when you're getting there," said Beard, who also contributed to the guide. "That's critical."

The guide encourages more agile management techniques that constantly take climate change into account, as well as strategies that can change depending on the outcome.

For example, land managers can restore coastal habitats to deal with saltwater intrusion while simultaneously providing migration corridors if those habitats become inundated due to sea-level rise—this effort is currently underway at the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge in North Carolina.

Conserving a changing landscape may sound like a tall order, but Beard said he believes that, based on efforts he has witnessed over the past five years, America's land managers are up to the task.

"Maybe it's because they are actually now starting to see the real-life implications of climate change," Beard said.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500

sorry to interrupt your climate change argument with my first-hand account of a tornado-warned rotation. my bad.
We like to chat on the entry subject matter, and things that do Matter to the author and the Human condition.



And you guys wonder why this blog has gone down hill, really only one reason.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
And you guys wonder why this blog has gone down hill, really only one reason.


*shrug* The blog's usually at its best (or worst, depending on how you view it) during Hurricane season.
Quoting 241. Patrap:

239. CosmicEvents


U betcha,

I always work "within" the TOS.

That's a matter of record,

Sport.

And now, Im off to Dine.


Graduations make me Hungry ya know.




When did this become a sports blog?

I am so confused.
Quoting 242. VAbeachhurricanes:

And you guys wonder why this blog has gone down hill, really only one reason.


Gravity?
Quoting 245. FBMinFL:



Gravity?


How'd you know?
Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:

glad this thing wasn't wrapped up tight or it would have made a direct hit on my house

Glad to hear it passed your house by. North Carolina has sure been getting more than its share of tornadoes lately.
Quoting Pallis:
I know how to do it with out the damage, but it costs money. I am not giving this idea up for free, as I plan to utilize it for profit. The entire concept of needing another countries plans are laughable.
Other countries? Did you mean what they did in China? Yes, that's laughable. Have you gotten a patent on your idea yet? Anybody that can remove millions of cubic yards of sediment under hundreds of feet of water with no environmental consequences could make a lot of money.
Quoting FBMinFL:


When did this become a sports blog?

I am so confused.

Were there people fighting among themselves again? I never see those posts....ya know.


Heh... everywhere but the Gulf of Mexico and California.
LOL

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/15/14 TORNADO...
...NWS MIAMI CONFIRMS EF-0 TORNADO IN DORAL...

.DORAL TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 10 YARDS
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
LOL

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/15/14 TORNADO...
...NWS MIAMI CONFIRMS EF-0 TORNADO IN DORAL...

.DORAL TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 10 YARDS


NHRA sanctioned.
Quoting 203. PedleyCA:



Yup, I found this on the KTLA.com site 10,000-Gallon Crude Oil Spill Prompts Evacuation of L.A. Strip Club


There's a joke just busting to come out of that story...
255. wxmod
This goes on all day, every day, everywhere. Say good bye to the stratosphere. Global warming has a cumulative impact along with all kinds of pollution.

256. wxmod
It's everywhere.

257. wxmod
If you fly in a jet, you make the world hotter, and stuffier. Here's a satellite photo of California, roasting in its own economy.


Quoting 254. Dakster:



There's a joke just busting to come out of that story...
Your humor, mixed with the gutter wit, adds a unique brand on entertainment to the blog...:)
Quoting 257. wxmod:

If you fly in a jet, you make the world hotter, and stuffier. Here's a satellite photo of California, roasting in its own economy.



Dude... I read your posts, but why do you not post info related to the contrails warm the stratosphere theory...What I am getting at is where is the proof, and if so, why not post the scientific evidence that supports this claim.?
I see the CMC was right about a disturbance off the Florida coast...however the intensity was off just a tad. Also me wonders about how The Boy is going to affect precipitation levels along the western part of North America.

Quoting 206. PlazaRed:

Here's an extract I got for a link on post 17 which had to be copied and pasted, which wasn't very easy, as it did not work too well.
The book is called:-
The West Without Water.
B. Lynn Ingram (Author), Frances Malamud-Roam (Author)....
Anybody who has a bit of time might find this interesting, I did.
PlazaRed,

Thanks for your follow-up to my suggestion about "The West Without Water". I'm just learning the commenting system so I appreciate your providing the live link as well as the info about the First Chapter extract.

It turns out the UC Press also provides a First Chapter Excerpt for the other book I mentioned as well. "Dead Pool" This is compelling reading. It describes the time that BuRec nearly lost Glen Canyon Dam.




Quoting Dakster:


There's a joke just busting to come out of that story...


Something to do with oiled up........
Quoting PedleyCA:


NHRA sanctioned.

Wouldn't even make the stock eliminations...
Quoting 259. hydrus:

Your humor, mixed with the gutter wit, adds a unique brand on entertainment to the blog...:)Dude... I read your posts, but why do you not post info related to the contrails warm the stratosphere theory...What I am getting at is where is the proof, and if so, why not post the scientific evidence that supports this claim.?


they have negative affects, but they are mainly related to the general problems that come with fossil fuel use.
Quoting sar2401:

Wouldn't even make the stock eliminations...


The strip would fit into that path quite well.
Quoting slavicthunder:
I see the CMC was right about a disturbance off the Florida coast...however the intensity was off just a tad. Also me wonders about how The Boy is going to affect precipitation levels along the western part of North America.

Well, no, it really wasn't right. It predicted the formation of low to the east of or over Florida. What we had was a cold front being dragged across Florida anchored by a low over upper Michigan. Just because it rained in Florida doesn't mean the CMC got it right.
Quoting 223. PedleyCA:



20C Heatwave, too funny,
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 2:53 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
101 °F / 38 °C
Clear
Humidity: 4%
Dew Point: 3 °F / -16 °C

Wind: 4 mph / 6 km/h / 1.5 m/s Variable
Pressure: 29.91 in / 1013 hPa (Falling)

Posted from the Old WU

I can take the heat, but that dewpoint depression would make me cry.
Quoting PedleyCA:


The strip would fit into that path quite well.

But a 65 mph top speed in a quarter? My old Chevy Vega.could do better than that.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:18 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
96.2 °F / 35.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: 23 °F / -5 °C
Wind: 19.0 mph / 30.6 km/h / 8.5 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h / 10.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 91 °F / 33 °C

98.3F here and 103 at the Airport. That was a record as was the morning low (62)
Quoting 217. sar2401:


Great, now there's someone from TWC that monitors this blog running off to a producer...:-)


was done several years ago 'Atomic Twister' it appeared to be a really bad B movie about a decade or so ago, crummy acting, completely unbelievable CG SFX and everything. set in Texas...
I think it was the same people who did 'Sharknado'

Quoting 212. sar2401:

Very few environmentalist in this country would approve of the Chinese solution headed down the Grand Canyon.
sar,

I'm an enviro and love the idea. New beaches everywhere. Think of it, tamasrisk thickets buried under tens of feet of sandy beach volleyball court and bbq sites everywhere. What's not to love? Just kidding, sort of. Beach replenishment has been a bugaboo for the Park Service. This solves that problem. :)

A bit of trivia for you.... when they went to dig the foundation for Glen Canyon Dam circa 1960 they went down about 45 feet through sand before they discovered a piece of milled lumber near bedrock. Since native Americans didn't mill lumber, the piece was from the period of Euro-American occupation meaning the river had built up 45 feet of sand in perhaps a century. The greatest flow ever in the Colorado River at the location of the Glen Canyon Dam in the record since the dam started to fill is just over 122,000 cfs. Paleo records indicate that the peak flood in the past 1,000 years was on the order of 500,000 cfs. Now that sort of thing would rearrange the furniture.
Two weeks later and tornadoes continue to be confirmed from the April 27-30 tornado outbreak. With 6 discovered touchdowns in Alabama on April 29, the outbreak tally is up to 80--13 EF0s, 41 EF1s, 15 EF2s, 9 EF3s, and 2 EF4s. The number of confirmed dead remains at 35, and the number of injuries remains at 247.

At least 20 tornadoes have been confirmed from the Mothers Day tornado outbreak (Sunday), including 2 EF3s...one 3/4 of a mile wide, the other 1.5 miles wide.

At least 4 tornadoes have been confirmed yesterday, including an EF3 near Cedarville, Ohio.

Despite what might seem like a lot of activity recently, we continue to run well below-average; tornado activity is roughly 55-60% of average at this point. The number of confirmed tornadoes (not reports) lies below both 2013 and 2012, which were both considered record quiet seasons at one point.

274. wxmod
This is a satellite image of heavy sulphur dioxide half way between Hawaii and San Diego. That's about the amount that would be seen in a volcanic eruption. Because of its location, in the middle of the "great garbage patch", it's probably barged garbage burning.

275. wxmod
Quoting 259. hydrus:

Your humor, mixed with the gutter wit, adds a unique brand on entertainment to the blog...:)Dude... I read your posts, but why do you not post info related to the contrails warm the stratosphere theory...What I am getting at is where is the proof, and if so, why not post the scientific evidence that supports this claim.?


Hey, do I ask you for proof every time you show me a hook echo on a radar that you claim is a tornado? There are some things that are just too obvious to require further study. Pollution makes stagnation. That goes for water or the atmosphere.
Evening all...
Quoting 266. sar2401:


Well, no, it really wasn't right. It predicted the formation of low to the east of or over Florida. What we had was a cold front being dragged across Florida anchored by a low over upper Michigan. Just because it rained in Florida doesn't mean the CMC got it right.
I thought the low is what dragged up over us from out PR-way....

Euro 3.4 enso plumes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BntBID2CAAARMgi.png
I can't wait to see this blog when a cat. 4 is threatening to hit somewhere in the US.
Well, so far over New Providence at my location the rain has held up. Seems like it's been raining lightly over on the north side, but as is typical with these frontal systems the SW side of the island stays relatively dry.

I think we'll get some heavier showers later tonight, though.
Still 100 degrees here, after maxing out at 106.3... I could definitely use some May Gray.
Quoting 253. Gearsts:




Just terrible :-(
drive by post..I see California is the topic of discussion..hate to interrupt the blog but the Navgem..yes its the Navgem is seeing some type of disturbance..starts at 96 hours.









Quoting 278. opal92nwf:

I can't wait to see this blog when a cat. 4 is threatening to hit somewhere in the US.
Cat. 4, why not Cat. 5? Might as well go DOOM!!! or go home.
Quoting 278. opal92nwf:

I can't wait to see this blog when a cat. 4 is threatening to hit somewhere in the US.


a lot of people will go on ignore..
12z JMA with the same system around the same time but an open low..







Quoting rayduray2013:

sar,

I'm an enviro and love the idea. New beaches everywhere. Think of it, tamasrisk thickets buried under tens of feet of sandy beach volleyball court and bbq sites everywhere. What's not to love? Just kidding, sort of. Beach replenishment has been a bugaboo for the Park Service. This solves that problem. :)

A bit of trivia for you.... when they went to dig the foundation for Glen Canyon Dam circa 1960 they went down about 45 feet through sand before they discovered a piece of milled lumber near bedrock. Since native Americans didn't mill lumber, the piece was from the period of Euro-American occupation meaning the river had built up 45 feet of sand in perhaps a century. The greatest flow ever in the Colorado River at the location of the Glen Canyon Dam in the record since the dam started to fill is just over 122,000 cfs. Paleo records indicate that the peak flood in the past 1,000 years was on the order of 500,000 cfs. Now that sort of thing would rearrange the furniture.

LOL. Photoshop the Chinese photo over Glen Canyon Dam and then show it to your enviro friends. Should be good for some howls of protest. I don't know if you've kept up with the actual flood releases from GCD and the downstream result but it haven't been very good. Seems like an extra 45,000 CFS undermined the toes of the existing sandbars and then deposited 4 or 5 feet of sand on top, making a taller but more unstable sandbar. They're going to try several smaller releases next and see what happens. I went down the Canyon in October of 1999, and the Tamarisk trees were both a blessing and a curse. They were a real pain when we had to make a portage but they were nice for some shade and campsites. Those little pink rattlesnakes sure like them. Nothing more exciting than using the porta potty and having one of them come around for a visit.

I heard about the milled wood discovery when they were excavating for the dam. Given the rather amazing estimates of past flows, it's not surprising that a piece of lumber could have floated down from up in Utah and get buried in sand after a hundred years. When you're at the bottom, looking up 4500 feet, and realizing all that was done sometime in the last million or so years, it sure took some cutting power aided by all that sand and gravel. I'll have to tell you the story about the ice cream delivery and why it made for 17 long days in the Canyon someday.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all...
I thought the low is what dragged up over us from out PR-way....


No, it's a cold front, The low dissipated, or at least doesn't show on a surface chart any longer.
♫♫ Someone's forecasting, Lord. Kumbaya. ♫♫
Quoting PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:18 PM PDT on May 15, 2014
Clear
96.2 °F / 35.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: 23 °F / -5 °C
Wind: 19.0 mph / 30.6 km/h / 8.5 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h / 10.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 91 °F / 33 °C

98.3F here and 103 at the Airport. That was a record as was the morning low (62)

That was one thing I liked about Riverside. Even when it was over 100, it still got cool enough to sleep reasonably well at night. Here, it's typical to get at least a couple of nights each summer where it doesn't drop below 80, and we won't see 70 or below day or night in July or August. It's beautiful tonight, with clear skies and a temperature of 54. This is the last hurrah before the 900 degree temperatures set in.

This shear need to get it together.
Link
This is heartbreaking and life learning.
Quoting 280. TimSoCal:

Still 100 degrees here, after maxing out at 106.3... I could definitely use some May Gray.


Quoting 280. TimSoCal:

Still 100 degrees here, after maxing out at 106.3... I could definitely use some May Gray.


Was watching the CH-5 News and some guy from JPL was saying we may not get our May Gray or June Gloom this year, Yikes.
1.96" in Altamonte Springs today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND THIS
EVENING WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ALSO BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VOLUSIA INTO FAR NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. A MESONET REPORT OF 5.21
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED NEAR MIMS...WITH A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4.8-4.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY FROM NEW
SMYRNA BEACH TO OAK HILL.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM AROUND
LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO THE TREASURE COAST BY SUNRISE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS NW SECTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MADE SOME
POP/TEMP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS. GRIDDED UPDATES ARE OUT WITH ZFP SOON.
Quoting 283. ncstorm:

drive by post..I see California is the topic of discussion..hate to interrupt the blog but the Navgem..yes its the Navgem is seeing some type of disturbance..starts at 96 hours.











Looks baroclinic in nature - I don't think it would have enough time to go tropical, or even sub-tropical, before becoming too baroclinic and tacking on a frontal boundary.

Wow, right next to the airport
Quoting 259. hydrus:

Your humor, mixed with the gutter wit, adds a unique brand on entertainment to the blog...:)Dude... I read your posts, but why do you not post info related to the contrails warm the stratosphere theory...What I am getting at is where is the proof, and if so, why not post the scientific evidence that supports this claim.?
a picture is worth a thousand words. he dosnt need scientific data and a back up report to say "STOP TREATING OUR ATMOSPHERE LIKE A TOILET"
You know..maybe an inactive season'll keep the trolls away.
Lets go for it :P
An incredible timelapse of the Cocos Fire from 1017-1243pm today...


Quoting 294. StormTrackerScott:

1.96" in Altamonte Springs today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND THIS
EVENING WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ALSO BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VOLUSIA INTO FAR NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. A MESONET REPORT OF 5.21
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED NEAR MIMS...WITH A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4.8-4.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY FROM NEW
SMYRNA BEACH TO OAK HILL.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM AROUND
LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO THE TREASURE COAST BY SUNRISE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS NW SECTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MADE SOME
POP/TEMP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS. GRIDDED UPDATES ARE OUT WITH ZFP SOON.
i did see where there was at least one pixel about 50km SE of Perry that received 8+"...probably 10+" of accumulated rain over the last 3 days. To your credit, for this pixel and all those in it, you were right in even your most exuberant forecast.
add this now!! Los Angeles Oil Spill: 10,000 Gallons of Crude Oil Spills Onto Streets

The Los Angeles Fire Department said that some 10,000 gallons of crude oil spilled into the streets of a Los Angeles area suburb after an oil pipe burst overnight. The pipe ruptured in the Glendale area, in Atwater Village around midnight local time, spewing so much oil into the streets that it was reportedly knee deep in some areas. USA Today reports that the total area affected by the spill is roughly a half-mile in size.

After the spill was reported around midnight, the oil line was remotely shut off, stopping the torrent of oil from pumping out into the streets. But not before oil shot more than 20 feet into the air, causing around 10,000 gallons of oil to run amuck in Atwater Village, forcing the evacuation of a strip club and inundating a few other local businesses, according to the Associated Press.

Crews from an environmental cleaning company worked overnight to contain and clean the spill. Most of the oil has been vacuumed up as of Thursday morning and streets were cleansed using high-pressure hoses, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.

Two people were transferred to a local hospital, but the extent of their injuries is unknown at this time.

A Los Angeles Fire Department spokesperson told the Associated Press that there was "no visible evidence" that any of the oil had leaked into storm drains, which empty into the Los Angeles River.


While not as fierce-looking as some I've seen, this front is nevertheless quite distinctive.



At the rate it's going, we may be seeing unsettled wx from this over the central Bahamas until tomorrow evening... this is what Saturday morning is supposed to look like...

Quoting 253. Gearsts:


If this keeps up, it looks like all the storms are going to form between 20 and 40N, which puts [potentially] pressure on the East CONUS coast. Maybe GA's year for a landfalling 'cane?
Quoting 294. StormTrackerScott:

1.96" in Altamonte Springs today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND THIS
EVENING WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ALSO BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VOLUSIA INTO FAR NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. A MESONET REPORT OF 5.21
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED NEAR MIMS...WITH A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4.8-4.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY FROM NEW
SMYRNA BEACH TO OAK HILL.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM AROUND
LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO THE TREASURE COAST BY SUNRISE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS NW SECTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MADE SOME
POP/TEMP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS. GRIDDED UPDATES ARE OUT WITH ZFP SOON.


Scott I really respect you for sticking to your heavy rainfall of 4 to 6 inches even despite people doubting you. Looks like Stormwx got showed up. Dang.
Quoting 303. BahaHurican:

While not as fierce-looking as some I've seen, this front is nevertheless quite distinctive.



At the rate it's going, we may be seeing unsettled wx from this over the central Bahamas until tomorrow evening... this is what Saturday morning is supposed to look like...


looks like Feburary
Quoting Doppler22:

Wow, right next to the airport

Good Lord, that thing was a monster!
Here's a look at the storms as they rolled into Orlando.


Quoting Bluestorm5:


Accuweather going upper range of most predictions, eh? Interesting...

Anybody remember what they predicted last year?
Quoting BahaHurican:
While not as fierce-looking as some I've seen, this front is nevertheless quite distinctive.



At the rate it's going, we may be seeing unsettled wx from this over the central Bahamas until tomorrow evening... this is what Saturday morning is supposed to look like...


That front's been quite the overperformer. I wouldn't be surprised to see you get at least an inch out of it.
Quoting 287. sar2401:


LOL. ... the Tamarisk trees were both a blessing and a curse. They were a real pain when we had to make a portage but they were nice for some shade and campsites. Those little pink rattlesnakes sure like them. Nothing more exciting than using the porta potty and having one of them come around for a visit.

I heard about the milled wood discovery.... and realizing all that was done sometime in the last million or so years, it sure took some cutting power aided by all that sand and gravel. I'll have to tell you the story about the ice cream delivery and why it made for 17 long days in the Canyon someday.

sar,

Thanks for the 411 on the beach replenishment effort. Seems that they can fix that. They've had better luck in the past. What I like right now is that the delta south of the border is getting a good snozzle of water to bring back some of the riparian life down there.

Oh, and thanks for the groover image. Apparently the rattlesnakes are a problem in Sand Iego right now, too.

As to cutting power, at Lava Falls and one or two other rapids the rio apparently cut down through volcanic dams that make Boulder Dam and Glen Canyon Dam look like fragile little fingernails holding back the maelstrom. I've heard varying estimates on the age of the Grand Canyon. Lord Usher would have it at 6006 years old. I'm more inclined to the six million years' of occasional cataclysmic flooding theory myself. Although, just now, I discovered a reason to wonder if parts of the Grand Canyon are maybe 70 million years old and the dinosaurs once drank the waters that 30 million 'Muricans are slurping up today.


         A Prime Example of Climate Change In Action
Quoting rayduray2013:


sar,

Thanks for the 411 on the beach replenishment effort. Seems that they can fix that. They've had better luck in the past. What I like right now is that the delta south of the border is getting a good snozzle of water to bring back some of the riparian life down there.

Oh, and thanks for the groover image. Apparently the rattlesnakes are a problem in Sand Iego right now, too.

As to cutting power, at Lava Falls and one or two other rapids the rio apparently cut down through volcanic dams that make Boulder Dam and Glen Canyon Dam look like fragile little fingernails holding back the maelstrom. I've heard varying estimates on the age of the Grand Canyon. Lord Usher would have it at 6006 years old. I'm more inclined to the six million years' of occasional cataclysmic flooding theory myself. Although, just now, I discovered a reason to wonder if parts of the Grand Canyon are maybe 70 million years old and the dinosaurs once drank the waters that 30 million 'Muricans are slurping up today.

They originally thought that by trying to emulate the spring freshets in the Canyon it would help to rebuild the beaches and sandbars but apparently 70 years of relatively low flows and calm waters (outside the rapids) have made the whole beach and sandbar structure weak. They've now talked about several 10,000 cfs releases rather than one huge 45,000 cfs release. I'm not at all confident the NPS and BuRec really know what they're doing, and trying to "restore" something that's been gone for 70 years may do more damage than good.

I'm also not confident anyone really knows the age of the Canyon either. I've read estimates of between a million to six million years and now that parts are 70 million years. I've yet to read a convincing explanation of the Great Unconformity, which represents somewhere between tens of millions to billions of years of geologic history that's just gone. Climate science may be difficult, but trying to tell the age of strata when such huge chunks are missing is mind boggling.
Quoting 305. StPetersburgFL:



Scott I really respect you for sticking to your heavy rainfall of 4 to 6 inches even despite people doubting you. Looks like Stormwx got showed up. Dang.


He said the west coast of Fl would get 4-6" last night. No one around here got that much.
Quoting 313. rayduray2013:


sar,

Thanks for the 411 on the beach replenishment effort. Seems that they can fix that. They've had better luck in the past. What I like right now is that the delta south of the border is getting a good snozzle of water to bring back some of the riparian life down there.

Oh, and thanks for the groover image. Apparently the rattlesnakes are a problem in Sand Iego right now, too.

As to cutting power, at Lava Falls and one or two other rapids the rio apparently cut down through volcanic dams that make Boulder Dam and Glen Canyon Dam look like fragile little fingernails holding back the maelstrom. I've heard varying estimates on the age of the Grand Canyon. Lord Usher would have it at 6006 years old. I'm more inclined to the six million years' of occasional cataclysmic flooding theory myself. Although, just now, I discovered a reason to wonder if parts of the Grand Canyon are maybe 70 million years old and the dinosaurs once drank the waters that 30 million 'Muricans are slurping up today.


         A Prime Example of Climate Change In Action

we have a member in the house from east texas that says and I quote "I make all my voting decisions on the fact that the earth is 6,000 years old"
So oil pipeline burst in Los Angelos.. The rupture resulted in the local Adult Gentleman's club getting heavily oiled. Left me wundering what are the odds of that oil disaster getting hit by that nearby fire weather catastrophe..

Quoting 297. floridaT:

a picture is worth a thousand words. he dosnt need scientific data and a back up report to say "STOP TREATING OUR ATMOSPHERE LIKE A TOILET"
Good evening Florida T...I wanted him to post a link or some info is all. I want air pollution to end, but for as many times he has posted contrails, there is no data.....I merely want to see what he has to offer on the subject..
4+ inches of rain for today all over this map of North Carolina in shade of red with scar of 5-7 inches (darker red) near Durham and Henderson. I got about 2-3 inches so far between Raleigh and Smithfield. This is just ridiculous.



Quoting hydrus:
Good evening Florida T...I wanted him to post a link or some info is all. I want air pollution to end, but for as many times he has posted contrails, there is no data.....I merely want to see what he has to offer on the subject..

True chemtrail believers don't need scientific data because there isn't any. I'm always amazed anyone's on a weather blog and doesn't understand the nature of contrails.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
4+ inches of rain for today all over this map of North Carolina in shade of red with scar of 5-7 inches (darker red) near Durham and Henderson. I got about 2-3 inches so far between Raleigh and Smithfield. This is just ridiculous.




That's what I said last night also. It seems every front that's gone through has been a big rain producer. I'm already up to 4.97" for the month...and it's only half done.
Quoting 318. hydrus:

Good evening Florida T...I wanted him to post a link or some info is all. I want air pollution to end, but for as many times he has posted contrails, there is no data.....I merely want to see what he has to offer on the subject..
its all good hydrus . I know where your heart is . I though have become frustrated with "talking points" and politics on climate change and pollution . Just last night I was listening to George Norry and i heard " so there were parts of America and Im talking about the midwest that were the coldest in 20 years. so some is warmer but some is colder. " Have we learned to bend to the far right wing? In Turkey this week 300? miners killed? (IF IT WERNT FOR THOSE PESKY MINNING SAFTEY REGULATIONS WE COULD MAKE SOME REAL MONEY) Is Rush (its the earth it will all even out) Limbaugh our philosophy? AAAHHH the ocean is big it will absorb all the plastic just give me cold drinks in sanitary attractive containers. I believe its time and mabee too late for change.
323. wxmod
Quoting 320. sar2401:


True chemtrail believers don't need scientific data because there isn't any. I'm always amazed anyone's on a weather blog and doesn't understand the nature of contrails.


People who see pollution in the form of jet exhaust and are offended by it are not conspiracy theorists. Those ten mile wide, thousand mile long clouds from jets are ruining this planet. I don't care what you call em.
324. OCF
I checked a satellite view in mid-afternoon (from the NHC site, Western US, visible). Usually you see stratus over the Pacific, not to far from the California coast. But today the nearest stratus was halfway to Hawaii and retreating westward, and between there and the southern half of California was a very large area that was utterly, totally cloudless - and that looks very strange, for any chunk of the Pacific.

Around sundown, there were a few wisps of high clouds, possibly loosely associated to a ragged and lousy looking front somewhere off to the northwest. And the latest temperature at Morro Bay (central coast, west-facing) was 59, which is probably an actual fog bank that moved in. Hmm... can I get away and go there? Not right now, drat.

Quoting 316. floridaT:

we have a member in the house from east texas that says and I quote "I make all my voting decisions on the fact that the earth is 6,000 years old"
Hey, no brains, no headaches. :)

There's some discussion of Florida's other fruit and nut, Mario Rubio, imploding over the climate change issue. Were I to meet the meathead, my salutation would be 'don't let the door hit ya where the Good Lord split ya."
326. wxmod
Quoting 322. floridaT:

its all good hydrus . I know where your heart is . I though have become frustrated with "talking points" and politics on climate change and pollution . Just last night I was listening to George Norry and i heard " so there were parts of America and Im talking about the midwest that were the coldest in 20 years. so some is warmer but some is colder. " Have we learned to bend to the far right wing? In Turkey this week 300? miners killed? (IF IT WERNT FOR THOSE PESKY MINNING SAFTEY REGULATIONS WE COULD MAKE SOME REAL MONEY) Is Rush (its the earth it will all even out) Limbaugh our philosophy? AAAHHH the ocean is big it will absorb all the plastic just give me cold drinks in sanitary attractive containers. I believe its time and mabee too late for change.


Thanks for the defense. Thought I was the only one on here with an attitude.
Quoting 321. sar2401:


That's what I said last night also. It seems every front that's gone through has been a big rain producer. I'm already up to 4.97" for the month...and it's only half done.


Several stations near RDU airport got you beat from today alone :) One of them is reporting 5.90 inches of rain and counting! Insane day today in North Carolina.
Quoting 325. rayduray2013:


Hey, no brains, no headaches. :)

There's some discussion of Florida's other fruit and nut, Mario Rubio, imploding over the climate change issue. Were I to meet the meathead, my salutation would be 'don't let the door hit ya where the Good Lord split ya."
now ya got me going . Rubio is a total science and climate change denier.
Quoting 315. luvtogolf:



He said the west coast of Fl would get 4-6" last night. No one around here got that much.


Some areas got a lot perhaps 2 to 3 inches so he wasn't that far off lol
Quoting 322. floridaT: Is Rush (its the earth it will all even out) Limbaugh our philosophy? AAAHHH the ocean is big it will absorb all the plastic just give me cold drinks in sanitary attractive containers. I believe its time and mabee too late for change.

You can lock freshwater (concrete, water bottles, plastic shopping bags, beer bottles, the plastic that
contains your lunchmeat, pretty much everything you buy contained in glass and plastic) forever with
no way to recover it. Developing nations are locking up way way more water than we are.
Its amazing "Lets be like China get rid of all those pesky "EPA" regulations we will all make money (except the workers) an old saying f them all and feed them carp.
Quoting 330. redwagon:

Quoting 322. floridaT: Is Rush (its the earth it will all even out) Limbaugh our philosophy? AAAHHH the ocean is big it will absorb all the plastic just give me cold drinks in sanitary attractive containers. I believe its time and mabee too late for change.

You can lock freshwater (concrete, water bottles, plastic shopping bags, beer bottles, the plastic that
contains your lunchmeat, pretty much everything you buy contained in glass and plastic) forever with
no way to recover it. Developing nations are locking up way way more water than we are.
Let me ask this. What was wrong with waxed paper milk cartons? They worked well. glass bottles? birds dont eat them . they sink no pollution. the pop tops though when they first came out they would cut your feet though.
Quoting floridaT:
Let me ask this. What was wrong with waxed paper milk cartons? They worked well. glass bottles? birds dont eat them . they sink no pollution. the pop tops though when they first came out they would cut your feet though.


Not true about the glass bottles. Sinking human waste in the ocean is still pollution, as it ruins and destroys the sea floor biosphere.
Quoting 333. Astrometeor:



Not true about the glass bottles. Sinking human waste in the ocean is still pollution, as it ruins and destroys the sea floor biosphere.
its a rockj
Things look a bit chaotic in this San Diego video. [A note to smartphone users: Consider taking your pictures in landscape mode. I guarantee you'll look 100% more professional. :) ]

Quoting Skyepony:
So oil pipeline burst in Los Angelos.. The rupture resulted in the local Adult Gentleman's club getting heavily oiled. Left me wundering what are the odds of that oil disaster getting hit by that nearby fire weather catastrophe..

Zero.
Quoting 332. floridaT:
Let me ask this. What was wrong with waxed paper milk cartons? They worked well. glass bottles? birds dont eat them . they sink no pollution. the pop tops though when they first came out they would cut your feet though.

The key is to get developing countries to find ways to not use freshwater in manufacturing. Use seawater.
Quoting 333. Astrometeor:

Not true about the glass bottles. Sinking human waste in the ocean is still pollution, as it ruins and destroys the sea floor biosphere.

There are exceptions to this rule. :)

Quoting 339. rayduray2013:

In awe here.
More "too close for comfort" video from San Diego:



Daily Prelimary U.S. Extremes
past 24 hours:

Extreme Location

High
109 Death Valley, CA

Low
10 Eagle Nest, NM

Precip
4.38" Cross City, FL

Link
Quoting OCF:
I checked a satellite view in mid-afternoon (from the NHC site, Western US, visible). Usually you see stratus over the Pacific, not to far from the California coast. But today the nearest stratus was halfway to Hawaii and retreating westward, and between there and the southern half of California was a very large area that was utterly, totally cloudless - and that looks very strange, for any chunk of the Pacific.

Around sundown, there were a few wisps of high clouds, possibly loosely associated to a ragged and lousy looking front somewhere off to the northwest. And the latest temperature at Morro Bay (central coast, west-facing) was 59, which is probably an actual fog bank that moved in. Hmm... can I get away and go there? Not right now, drat.

The low clouds are a little easier to see on the infrared. They are starting to sneak around the bend up Morro Bay and down to the Channel Islands. It will still be warm tomorrow, although the Santa Ana has pretty much ended as the winds have turned to the west at Avalon. Saturday should be back to the usual low clouds and fog at the beaches and Sunday should be a return to average temperatures for everyone. Kind of a bad spell the last couple of days but it's happened before and will happen again.

Quoting rayduray2013:
More "too close for comfort" video from San Diego:




For heavens sake. A reporter in a nomex jacket wearing the biggest goggles I've ever seen, while standing at a place where there was no fire, while we have a California girl driving by flames that weren't all that close and having a melt down. CNN at its finest.
Quoting rayduray2013:
Things look a bit chaotic in this San Diego video. [A note to smartphone users: Consider taking your pictures in landscape mode. I guarantee you'll look 100% more professional. :) ]


I don't think those guys were interested in being too professional. I guess we'll now fire chaser videos to compete with some of our loud and hysterical tornado chasers. :-)
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Several stations near RDU airport got you beat from today alone :) One of them is reporting 5.90 inches of rain and counting! Insane day today in North Carolina.

Like I said, this front has been a very efficient rain producer. At least we all know how the rain from a tropical storm will be before we have any tropical storms. :-)
Study identifies travel choices for a smaller carbon footprint

Planes, trains, or automobiles: what's the most climate-friendly way to travel? A new study by researchers from IIASA and CICERO brings better estimates of how much personal travel impacts the climate.

The study, published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology by researchers at IIASA and Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) calculates the climate impact for passenger trips of 500-1000 km—typical distances for business or holiday trips. It shows that while air travel continues to have the biggest climate impact per distance travelled, the choices that people make about how they drive or take public transport make a big difference in how much they contribute to climate change.

"Traveling alone in a large car can be as bad for the climate as flying, but driving with three in a small car could have an equally low impact as a train ride," says IIASA's Jens Borken-Kleefeld. A 1000 km trip alone in a big car could emit as much as 250 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2), the researchers calculate, while a train trip or carpooling in a small car could emit as little as 50 kg of CO2 for each traveler.

Air travel has by far the biggest impact on climate per distance traveled, because it can lead to contrails and formation of cirrus clouds that have a strong climate impact, as well as ozone. These mechanisms have a strong effect on the climate, but cause warming over much shorter periods of time than CO2.

The study focused on the short-lived greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by both ground transportation and airplanes. In addition, the researchers accounted for vehicle occupancy and efficiency, based on real-world emissions data from cars, buses, trains, and airplanes in Europe.

"These components have not been regulated in the Kyoto Protocol," says Terje Berntsen, climate researcher at CICERO. "This means they risk being overlooked when comparing the climate impact from different travel choices."

Previous work and publicly available carbon footprint calculators estimate only averages for the whole transport system, at best. That means that they can miss big differences in climate impact that come from other pollutants, personal choices, and local mitigation measures.

Technologies to control air pollutant emissions from cars, buses, power plants, and trains effectively minimizes their climate impact, the study also shows—benefiting not just air quality but also climate change mitigation efforts. The researchers say that mitigation efforts should concentrate on improving fuel efficiency and developing low-carbon fuels.

While this is also important for aircraft, they say, more needs to be done to avoid the contrail and cirrus clouds. For people wanting to minimize their climate impact, Borken-Kleefeld says, "Try to avoid flying, driving alone, and driving big cars. Instead, when you can, choose the train, bus, or carpool with 2 to 3 people."

###

Reference

Borken-Kleefeld, Jens, Jan Fuglestvedt, and Terje Berntsen, 2013. Mode, load, and specific climate impact from passenger trips. Environmental Science and Technology: Just accepted manuscript. doi: 10.1021/es4003713
Quoting 347. bell32ndst:

Study identifies travel choices for a smaller carbon footprint


I'm pretty sure I got a better one...

You got your left carbon footprint and you got your right carbon footprint. And you can travel forward and back.
Quoting 343. sar2401:


Kind of a bad spell the last couple of days but it's happened before and will happen again.




Not so much in mid-May. This may or may not be a record fire season in CA, but this is how it would start.
NHC is taking note on the potential EPAC development that models are forecasting.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 48 hours.

Other systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone beyond
48 hours...

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of Mexico over the next day or so. Environmental conditions
should be conducive for gradual development to occur as the system
moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN
Quoting 350. Civicane49:

NHC is taking note on the potential EPAC development that models are forecasting.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 48 hours.

Other systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone beyond
48 hours...

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of Mexico over the next day or so. Environmental conditions
should be conducive for gradual development to occur as the system
moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN

The ECMWF continues to forecast a potent hurricane, which is impressive considering how many storms it completely ignored last year.

Morning everybody from a still very windy southern Europe in our part.
Winds running at about 60 MPH or 100 KPH in the area here for the third consecutive day without interruptions.

One of our clients in Oregon sent this note in an e-mail Earlier:-
"The weather in Portland today (temperature) was the highest on record the last set in 2012 at 88 F. Today it was 92F."

The only thing we are really thankful about at the moment with the wind is that the vegetation is still green here. In about 2 weeks everything will be bone dry and any fire will then probably be explosive in this kind of continuous wind. I done remember in 20 years such a strong continuous wind as this fro 3 days incessantly.
Our temps going up to about 33/C later today and of course no rain forecast until about October.

Bad storms with rain and water damage over Eastern Europe and we are still 5 weeks away from summer.
I'll bet that we have some interesting stories from this summer, not that we will have any hurricanes of course but its not going to be boring from a weather point of view over here.
Good morning all...
Quoting 350. Civicane49:

NHC is taking note on the potential EPAC development that models are forecasting.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 48 hours.

Other systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone beyond
48 hours...

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of Mexico over the next day or so. Environmental conditions
should be conducive for gradual development to occur as the system
moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN
Ah... back in the season... lol...



If this early activity in the EPac pans out, we may also see some early activity in the ATL next month.


Also, I note the monsoon trough on the CAR side and the TW tracks / ITCZ are expected to remain quite low, below 10N, for the next few days...


Sounds like it's raining outside... finally...

Current state of the front...

Quoting 296. Doppler22:


Wow, right next to the airport


65 mph tornado? That's pretty much a water vapor devil, lol.
Good amount of rain for an area that doesnt need it

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 900 AM EDT
* AT 558 AM EDT...TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ALSO REPORTS NUMEROUS ROADS BEING
CLOSED WITH WATER RESCUES BEING NECESSARY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT HIGH WATER
WILL REMAIN AS THE RUNOFF CONTINUES.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HARRISBURG...YORK...CHAMBERSBURG...CARLISLE...LOW ER ALLEN...
HANOVER...COLONIAL PARK...WEIGELSTOWN...WAYNESBORO...SUNBURY...
PROGRESS...MECHANICSBURG...MIDDLETOWN...LEWISTOWN ...CAMP HILL...
GETTYSBURG...NEW CUMBERLAND...PARKVILLE...LINGLESTOWN AND ENOLA.
Quoting 343. sar2401:


Kind of a bad spell the last couple of days but it's happened before and will happen again.


Yes, there have been Santa Ana events before. And, yes, there have been May heat waves (though this week's was one of the most brutal on record). The major difference is, of course, that there are far more people now, far more developed real estate, far more to lose. And, of course, climate scientists have been telling us for years that this kind of thing was going to get worse.

Looks like they were right.

So, yes, it's happened before--though never quite like this. And, yes, it'll happen again--though it will be even worse next time, and the time after that, and the time after that...
Things are going to heat up very soon in EPAC. Here is an excerpt from the 10:05 UTC TWD:


THE GFS SUGGESTS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESENTLY AT 09N101W...MOVING IT WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT AND
DEEPENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Welcome to the future of Earth Imaging. Planet.com, based in San Francisco is currently launching a constellation of video cameras into low earth orbit capable of seeing individual trees and monitoring road traffic. I can imagine the hurricane images will be spectacular.

Meet the Dove.

Flock 1 continuously images planet Earth. The 28 Dove satellites in Flock 1 act like a line scanner for the planet, creating a unique data stream that helps solve our world’s toughest challenges and triggers industry-changing opportunities.




  See the Video "We Are Planet Labs" from Planet Labs on Vimeo.
***
2nd Video from BBC World News Service: "The mini-satellite revolution gives new views of Earth"

Dr. Masters: This looks like the kind of service WU might consider subscribing to for hurricane season. Hint. Hint. What a wonderful new tool, er, toy. Oh, the joy.  :)
361. beell
Excerpts from:The Santa Ana Winds FAQ
Robert Fovell
Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles
rfovell _at_ ucla _dot_ edu
web.atmos.ucla.edu

Q. What are Santa Ana winds?

A. Santa Ana winds are dry and warm (often hot) winds in the Southern California area that blow in from the desert -- which includes the Great Basin of the western United States, incorporating Nevada and part of Utah.

Q. Are Santa Ana winds hot owing to their desert origin?

A. NO. These winds blow when the desert is COOL, or at least cooler than we are in the Los Angeles (LA) Basin, which I define as spanning from Ventura to San Diego. This why they tend to occur during the cooler part of the year, from September to May. The desert is not hot at that time of year.


Q. Santa Ana winds only occur in October, right?

A. No. Santa Ana conditions can exist at any time in which the Great Basin tends to be cooler than Southern California -- typically the September to May period. However, the winds garner the most attention around October because of unique aspects of Southern California climate which enhances fire danger in the autumn season.


Surface Air Temperatuure Composite Anomaly-May 7 through May 13

Seems to be a fairly decent temp differential between the Great Basin and coastal southern California.
362. MahFL
Quoting 315. luvtogolf:



He said the west coast of Fl would get 4-6" last night. No one around here got that much.

In NE FL I got only 1/5 inch from the predicted 2 to 4 inches.
watching the tale end of the front maybe if it festers for a few days. nw carib late may or early june is a favored area.
364. beell
CNN-Wildfires strike early, hard in Southern California

National Geographic-What’s Behind Early Season Winds Fueling Southern California Wildfires?

NY Times-Fire Season Starts Early, and Fiercely

Q. Santa Ana winds only occur in October, right?

A. No. Santa Ana conditions can exist at any time in which the Great Basin tends to be cooler than Southern California -- typically the September to May period. However, the winds garner the most attention around October because of unique aspects of Southern California climate which enhances fire danger in the autumn season.



the calif fires started somehow? sad. i guess an hot exhaust pipe next to some dry grass could of started one or two. but all over?
Good morning all! From the Miami NWS Disco...

A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO THE TIME
OF THE YEAR, BUT DEW POINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 50S AND 60S SO
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
AVERAGE FOR MID MAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER IMPRESSIVE
ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM (AT LEAST TO A METEOROLOGIST) IS THAT ALL
GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT DROPPING TO NEAR
ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THESE ARE NEAR HISTORIC LOWS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO ENJOY THE RAIN FREE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT REMAINING UNDER AN INCH ALONG
WITH VERY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE AVERAGE START DATE OF THE WET
SEASON IS AROUND MAY 20TH SO IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DELAYED THIS
YEAR.
Quoting 364. beell:

CNN-Wildfires strike early, hard in Southern California

National Geographic-What%u2019s Behind Early Season Winds Fueling Southern California Wildfires?

NY Times-Fire Season Starts Early, and Fiercely

Q. Santa Ana winds only occur in October, right?

A. No. Santa Ana conditions can exist at any time in which the Great Basin tends to be cooler than Southern California -- typically the September to May period. However, the winds garner the most attention around October because of unique aspects of Southern California climate which enhances fire danger in the autumn season.






The point of those headlines--and others--isn't that a May Santa Ana event in and of itself is rare. It's that such a strong Santa Ana event, coupled with a record drought , and coming at the tail end of what's normally the rainy season but this year was practically nonexistent, is a possible/likely harbinger of what might be a particularly nasty time of fire. A few saving graces, though: 1) lower-than-average rainfall over winter leads to less profuse wildland growth, so there's actually a bit less to burn than there otherwise might have been; and 2) the pending El Nino is certain to bring rains by fall that could put an early end to fire season (albeit at the expense of floods and landslides).
368. beell
Quoting 367. Neapolitan:



The point of those headlines--and others--isn't that a May Santa Ana event in and of itself is rare. It's that such a strong Santa Ana event, coupled with a record drought , and coming at the tail end of what's normally the rainy season but this year was practically nonexistent, is a possible/likely harbinger of what might be a particularly nasty time of fire. A few saving graces, though: 1) lower-than-average rainfall over winter leads to less profuse growth, so there's actually a bit less to burn than there otherwise might have been; and 2) the pending El Nino is certain to bring rains by fall that could put an early end to fire season (albeit at the expense of floods and landslides).


Agreed. There is no mystery here.

Quoting 353. BahaHurican:

Good morning all... Ah... back in the season... lol...



If this early activity in the EPac pans out, we may also see some early activity in the ATL next month.


thats not all ways ture and with EL nino years we may not see any thing in tell AUGS all so in EL nino years we see march higher wind shear this about ever year the ATL looks like it will be shut down this year now if this was a LA nino year i would say yes we have a good ch of seeing some in early june but this is not a LA nino year
Quoting MahFL:

In NE FL I got only 1/5 inch from the predicted 2 to 4 inches.


Yep thats why you cant always trust these models that STS and others show. Its nice they are posted but saying that an event is definitely going to happen because of a model is a little reckless. Either way, it was a bust of an event!
1.96" in Altamonte Springs yesterday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND THIS
EVENING WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ALSO BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VOLUSIA INTO FAR NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. A MESONET REPORT OF 5.21
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED NEAR MIMS...WITH A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4.8-4.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY FROM NEW
SMYRNA BEACH TO OAK HILL.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM AROUND
LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO THE TREASURE COAST BY SUNRISE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS NW SECTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MADE SOME
POP/TEMP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS. GRIDDED UPDATES ARE OUT WITH ZFP SOON.
10%-20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cycone during the
next 48 hours.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco Mexico. Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for development during the next few days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 370. StormWx:


Yep thats why you cant always trust these models that STS and others show. Its nice they are posted but saying that an event is definitely going to happen because of a model is a little reckless. Either way, it was a bust of an event!


LOL. Not here in E C FL. We got one heck of a deluge in Orlando yesterday with lots and lots of lightning to boot. Most areas in Orlando got 1.5 to 2.5" of rain while Volusia and northern Brevard Counties picked up 4.5" to just over 5" of rain. Needless to say our yearly surpluses are really getting up there now.
Coastal Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
659 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

DCZ001-MDZ014-VAZ054-161600-
/O.UPG.KLWX.CF.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-140516T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.W.0002.140516T1059Z-140516T1600Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ANNE ARUNDEL-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
659 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIDAL ANOMALY...BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

* TIMING...AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. HIGH TIDE FOR
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY...7:11 AM. WASHINGTON CHANNEL...
9:38 AM. ALEXANDRIA...9:56 AM...

* EXPECTED IMPACTS...MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION ALONG THE SHORELINE
AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$
Extreme Pattern Has More Cool Than Heat
May 15, 2014; 10:51 AM


Thursday, 11:45 a.m.

Record heat is blistering the West right now, though the heat has peaked. The nation's high on Wednesday was 106 in Santa Ana, California, and no doubt you have seen some of the footage of the fires in southern California as a result of the dry and hot offshore winds. It's been warm in the Northwest, too, and that warmth will linger this afternoon into tomorrow before it gets erased.

We have also seen a fair amount of warmth in the eastern third of the country, but the area of warmth is shrinking, and will be gone tomorrow. Here are the highs from Wednesday:

In between the two, it's more like early April rather than mid-May! The snow may be over, but the chill is not, and as long as this upper-level low or upper-level trough remains so strong coming through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, it will stay below normal in the Plains. The 12z May 15 NAM 500mb forecast shows the trough still pretty deep, with the jet stream digging deep into the South and Southeast Saturday afternoon:

That translates to yet another cool day for this time of the year from the Plains eastward:

Just as this lead upper-level low begins to open up into an upper-level trough, another will form and step in to replace it. Initially the air reaching the mid-Atlantic coast this weekend won't be too far below normal, and in eastern New England, it could just as easily remain above average right into Sunday. Going into next week, however, that will change. With a new upper-level low likely to form right over New England Monday, it signifies a fairly dramatic cooling of the atmosphere aloft.

You can look at that several ways, but I'll take the easiest one for me to look at, and that is 850mb forecasts. For the next 24 to 36 hours over the coastal mid-Atlantic and New England, the temperatures are generally between 10C and 15C. By contrast, those very same temperature forecasts are closer to 0C to 5C by Monday night and Tuesday, or approaching degrees Fahrenheit cooler! And once the cooler air is in, it's likely to stay in place, as this upper-level low impacts the weather into Wednesday. Another cold front may well slip through the area late next week, so that any warming that does take place into the Great Lakes and Northeast gets trimmed back again for the Memorial Day weekend.

So, if you look at the seven-day ensemble means from tomorrow through next Thursday, it's easy to see how dominant the cool air is and will be:



Folks in FL get ready for mid to upper 90's later next week and next weekend as a very hot SW Flow takes over. Heat index is likely going to be 105 to 110. Not out of the question that some areas could hit 100 for a high next weekend.

My forecast next Friday is 95
96 Saturday
95 Sunday


Link
Hard to imagine getting 8" to 10" of rain in just a few hours and that is exactly what happened across the FL Big Bend. Flooding is getting pretty bad up there now west of Gainesville. I have never seen this much rain across my area ever in the January to May timeframe. I am sitting at 21" so far for the year. Many years we are lucky to get 10" by June 1st.
The "deluge" missed us here in Naples, where we picked up a whopping o.02" at the airport yesterday. That's too bad; we're down 0.7" for the month, 2.53" for the year, and 7.87" since October 1.
Quoting 377. ncstorm:
Extreme Pattern Has More Cool Than Heat
May 15, 2014; 10:51 AM


Thursday, 11:45 a.m.

Record heat is blistering the West right now, though the heat has peaked. The nation's high on Wednesday was 106 in Santa Ana, California, and no doubt you have seen some of the footage of the fires in southern California as a result of the dry and hot offshore winds. It's been warm in the Northwest, too, and that warmth will linger this afternoon into tomorrow before it gets erased.

We have also seen a fair amount of warmth in the eastern third of the country, but the area of warmth is shrinking, and will be gone tomorrow. Here are the highs from Wednesday:

In between the two, it's more like early April rather than mid-May! The snow may be over, but the chill is not, and as long as this upper-level low or upper-level trough remains so strong coming through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, it will stay below normal in the Plains. The 12z May 15 NAM 500mb forecast shows the trough still pretty deep, with the jet stream digging deep into the South and Southeast Saturday afternoon:

That translates to yet another cool day for this time of the year from the Plains eastward:

Just as this lead upper-level low begins to open up into an upper-level trough, another will form and step in to replace it. Initially the air reaching the mid-Atlantic coast this weekend won't be too far below normal, and in eastern New England, it could just as easily remain above average right into Sunday. Going into next week, however, that will change. With a new upper-level low likely to form right over New England Monday, it signifies a fairly dramatic cooling of the atmosphere aloft.

You can look at that several ways, but I'll take the easiest one for me to look at, and that is 850mb forecasts. For the next 24 to 36 hours over the coastal mid-Atlantic and New England, the temperatures are generally between 10C and 15C. By contrast, those very same temperature forecasts are closer to 0C to 5C by Monday night and Tuesday, or approaching degrees Fahrenheit cooler! And once the cooler air is in, it's likely to stay in place, as this upper-level low impacts the weather into Wednesday. Another cold front may well slip through the area late next week, so that any warming that does take place into the Great Lakes and Northeast gets trimmed back again for the Memorial Day weekend.

So, if you look at the seven-day ensemble means from tomorrow through next Thursday, it's easy to see how dominant the cool air is and will be:





ncstorm get ready as the whole SE US is in for some serious heat come mid next week on. Summer heat is now knocking on the door and it's getting ready to make a grand entrance across the SE US. This extreme heat won't just be confined to FL;)
Quoting 382. Neapolitan:
The "deluge" missed us here in Naples, where we picked up a whopping o.02" at the airport yesterday. That's too bad; we're down 0.7" for the month, 2.53" for the year, and 7.87" since October 1.


Looks dry by you for sure. Surpluses of 5" for the year across many areas in Eastern FL. The fact that many areas are near or over 20" of rain so far this year across Orlando and that is extremely impressive as that is very hard to do during the dry season.


DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140516 1145 9.0 100.8 T1.0/1.0 IN1 INVEST
20140516 0545 8.8 100.4 T1.0/1.0 IN1 INVEST
Quoting 371. StormTrackerScott:

1.96" in Altamonte Springs yesterday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND THIS
EVENING WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ALSO BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VOLUSIA INTO FAR NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. A MESONET REPORT OF 5.21
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED NEAR MIMS...WITH A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4.8-4.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY FROM NEW
SMYRNA BEACH TO OAK HILL.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM AROUND
LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO THE TREASURE COAST BY SUNRISE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS NW SECTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MADE SOME
POP/TEMP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS. GRIDDED UPDATES ARE OUT WITH ZFP SOON.


If there's a mod wondering why I hit the 'report' button on Scott's post - it was an accident...

Scott-sorry, was trying to plus it :/
Quoting 384. StormTrackerScott:



ncstorm get ready as the whole SE US is in for some serious heat come mid next week on. Summer heat is now knocking on the door and it's getting ready to make a grand entrance across the SE US. This extreme heat won't just be confined to FL;)


Poisonous snake crawling time, which mortifies me.












Quoting 388. LAbonbon:


If there's a mod wondering why I hit the 'report' button on Scott's post - it was an accident...

Scott-sorry, was trying to plus it :/


No worries man I do it too by accident especially before I get coffee.
Hi Scott, with your enthusiasm for the weather, you should go back to school and get a degree in meteorology. I have a degree in marine biology as that was my passion at one time. To bad the money wasn't there and thank god I minored in business.
392. MAstu
That would be neat to see a massive EPAC storm so long as it doesn't bother anyone.


Scenes like these are quite common around the area.
Quoting 391. NativeSun:
Hi Scott, with your enthusiasm for the weather, you should go back to school and get a degree in meteorology. I have a degree in marine biology as that was my passion at one time. To bad the money wasn't there and thank god I minored in business.


My degree is in Marketing so yes business as well. I actuallly did go to met school but changed course as the math courses were just too overwhelming. Science and biology though was my cup of tea as well and did very well in those classes.
Quoting 390. StormTrackerScott:



No worries man I do it too by accident especially before I get coffee.


It's the lack of caffeine, for one. And my new laptop is a touch screen, so I do a combo of keyboard, touchpad, and touch screen. Still getting used to the new 'style' and Win8...the touch screen is awesome for scrolling fast though this site, but the report button is pretty close to the plus button, so if someone's using their fingers on the screen, accidents are going to happen, I guess. I can imagine the problem likely occurs more often on devices that are smaller than what I'm using.

I know people are focused on the west coast and the drought.But what about the east coast and all the flooding we've been getting?.I guess pushing the other proves peoples point faster...
Quoting 397. Torito:






plzs check the oder post be for posting some in that been posted all ready see post 387
-----------TEST-----------





------------At 1200 UTC, 16 May 2014, MAJOR HURRICANE SIMPSON (AL50) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 23.0°N and 73.5°W. The current intensity was 125 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb----------

-----------END TEST--------

Good to see RAL is doing their testing of relaying NOAA data. Keeping the place safe is the top priority.
Quoting 398. Tazmanian:




plzs check the oder post be for posting some in that been posted all ready see post 387


Bro, its a different enhancement for the floater. :p
Quoting 396. washingtonian115:

I know people are focused on the west coast and the drought.But what about the east coast and all the flooding we've been getting?.I guess pushing the other proves peoples point faster...


I would rather deal with flooding than drought and wildfires any day. What they are going thru out west is just unreal and its only going to get worse as there rainy season is a long ways away.

Scott. I still use my degree to some extent as it helps me with my hobby, I like keeping marine reef tanks and the biology degree really comes in handy. I love the weather too, and excelled in math and sciences in school. On the El-Nino this year I don't see a strong to super Nino like you do more of a weak to moderate one and a more active season this year. The Nino is not the end to a normal to above normal season but a portion of the puzzle to what we may see this year.
HOT.



24.5 degrees celcius is about 77 degrees F.
Quoting 405. Torito:

HOT.


You can say that again.
Bosnia, Serbia Flooding Kills At Least 2, Thousands Wait to Be Evacuated

May 16, 2014

Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina have been hit by some of the worst flooding in each country's history, killing at least two people and pushing hundreds from their homes.

(More on the flood impacts, including a photo slideshow, is here.)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
556 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-57 5-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-16 2300-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
556 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
Read this carefully. This is really contradictory.
Good. Stay over there to the east, rain.. light rain is good enough here.

Quoting 409. Torito:

Good. Stay over there to the east, rain.. light rain is good enough here.




LOL...let me guess...you're in DC?
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:



I would rather deal with flooding than drought and wildfires any day. What they are going thru out west is just unreal and its only going to get worse as there rainy season is a long ways away.


Good morning Scott! I'm with you!
Quoting 410. LAbonbon:


LOL...let me guess...you're in DC?


north-west of DC, where storm #E2 is on that map.
Yeah this is from some guys kitchen...but nice use of WUnderMap..

Quoting 412. Torito:



north-west of DC, where storm #E2 is on that map.
Clearing skies are coming.
Is St. Patrick's Day tomorrow? 45 w/ 45 dew pt (though not raining here), (edit: 43 wind chill, haven't seen that for a month), lows were 40-41, 4-8 W winds w/ 17 gust, 29.93", might make 60 for a high in S C IL. Midweek will bring summertime temps back. Should be a nice weekend though.

What's the Preakness forecast?
The Atlantic is gonna wake up very soon..
Farmers Almanac was about Preakness being dry.
General consensus on the Euro for 1.8C by November across Nino 3.4.

Quoting 417. Climate175:

The Atlantic is gonna wake up very soon..




no its not its going too be shut down most of the season
Quoting 420. Tazmanian:





no its not its going too be shut down most of the season
Hi Taz ! How's the weather today in Bolivia ?
Myth 4: We will see the impacts from El Niño any day now. No -- the long-range ocean and atmosphere forecasts from NOAA and other agencies are just that, forecasts. If the forecast warm-up does occur in the tropical Pacific later this summer and fall, the earliest effects would not be felt until the cooler periods of late fall or winter
I will rephrase that East Coast better watch out soon.
LOL. CPC continues to flip flop. Now back to strong El-Nino after lowering it's prediction a few days ago.

Myth 5: When there is an El Niño, there is lots of rain in California. No -- The answer is not always and not everywhere. Historical records for the past six plus decades for Central California, including the SF Bay Area, show that during the twenty-two El Niño events the rainfall has been roughly above normal (i.e., > 120%) half the time and below normal (<80%) the other half. If just the six strong El Niño events are looked at then the rainfall has been above normal four of the five seasons, and all four were at least 140% of normal. However, if only the weak and moderate El Niños are examined then it is seen that six of the 16 years received below normal rainfall, five near normal (80%-120%) and five above normal. [see Climatology of El Niño Events and California Precipitation]

Over the same span, Northern California had three wet years years during the five strong events, with five above-normal seasons during the seventeen weak-to-moderate El Niños.

Southern California showed more of a wet bias during strong El Niños with above-normal rain in four of the five seasons, near normal the fifth year. During weak to moderate events Southern California precipitation was above normal six of the 17 seasons, near normal six seasons and below normal the remaining five yearss.

The bottom line is that California can get wet during El Niño, but not always. As a matter of fact, the California drought in the 1976-77 winter was during a weak El Niño. It is important to keep in mind that El Niño is not the only thing happening in the atmosphere and that other patterns can either enhance or detract from its overall impact.
Myth 6: El Niño means disastrous flooding for California. No -- only occasionally. It is just as likely that California will have significant flooding in a non-El Niño year. Of the 10 costliest flood years in California since 1950, only four happened during a season when there was an El Niño. Two others occurred during seasons with La Niña, and the final four were when the temperature of the tropical Pacific was near normal. [see El Niño and La Niña...Their Relationship to California Flood Damage]

The major weather pattern that causes flooding in California is when a strong surge of subtropical moisture dumps copious amounts of rain over a portion of California for five to seven days. These are so-called Atmospheric Rivers ("Pineapple connection") and they are slightly more prevalent during years when there is no El Niño.

The last strong El Niño in the winter of 1997-1998 is a good case study of a wet El Niño year, but one with no major flooding. Despite nearly double the normal rainfall over most of California, there was nearly twice the number of days of rain with no huge concentrated deluges, and statewide damage totals were about $500 million. Compare this with the flooding that took place around New Year of 1997, a period with no El Niño, when a week's worth of warm atmospheric river rain resulted in $1.8 billion in damage statewide.
Quoting 424. StormTrackerScott:

LOL. CPC continues to flip flop. Now back to strong El-Nino after lowering it's prediction a few days ago.





LOL whats up with the black line takeing a dip
Quoting 416. dabirds:

Is St. Patrick's Day tomorrow? 45 w/ 45 dew pt (though not raining here), (edit: 43 wind chill, haven't seen that for a month), lows were 40-41, 4-8 W winds w/ 17 gust, 29.93", might make 60 for a high in S C IL. Midweek will bring summertime temps back. Should be a nice weekend though.

What's the Preakness forecast?


Saw this earlier on Accuweather:

"Officials of the Maryland Jockey Club said the dirt track at Pimlico dries fast and runs well in mud.

According to Mike Gathagan, vice president of communications of the Maryland Jockey Club, "As a precaution, crews can seal the track after racing activities on Thursday, ahead of the rain
."

Full article: Torrential Rain Douses Pimlico Race Course Ahead of Preakness


I've often wondered how exactly they 'seal the track'.
Quoting 425. ricderr:

Myth 5: When there is an El Niño, there is lots of rain in California. No -- The answer is not always and not everywhere. Historical records for the past six plus decades for Central California, including the SF Bay Area, show that during the twenty-two El Niño events the rainfall has been roughly above normal (i.e., > 120%) half the time and below normal (<80%) the other half. If just the six strong El Niño events are looked at then the rainfall has been above normal four of the five seasons, and all four were at least 140% of normal. However, if only the weak and moderate El Niños are examined then it is seen that six of the 16 years received below normal rainfall, five near normal (80%-120%) and five above normal. [see Climatology of El Niño Events and California Precipitation]

Over the same span, Northern California had three wet years years during the five strong events, with five above-normal seasons during the seventeen weak-to-moderate El Niños.

Southern California showed more of a wet bias during strong El Niños with above-normal rain in four of the five seasons, near normal the fifth year. During weak to moderate events Southern California precipitation was above normal six of the 17 seasons, near normal six seasons and below normal the remaining five yearss.

The bottom line is that California can get wet during El Niño, but not always. As a matter of fact, the California drought in the 1976-77 winter was during a weak El Niño. It is important to keep in mind that El Niño is not the only thing happening in the atmosphere and that other patterns can either enhance or detract from its overall impact.


A strong El-Nino would definitely increase the likely hood of heavy rains across California. The floods California will likely experience later this year could be extreme due to all of the wildfire ongoing now depleted the vegatation.

Mary Voice
National Climate Centre, Melbourne, Australia

"During my career in climate services in Australia, a major hurdle has been jumped by the temperamental thoroughbred named El Niño. El Niño has escaped from the corral of the scientific world and is now running free in the community. Over the past decade, a significant section of the Australian community has heard of El Niño and knows that it is linked to the Australian droughts. Many people in climate-sensitive industries have a broad understanding of the Australian consequences of El Niño and also its temperamental behavior. This is a major step forward for a country like Australia, so strongly affected by El Niño."

"Like all new theories released into the domain of human communication (the media, word of mouth, etc.), and like that thoroughbred just over a hurdle, we must now keep its head pointed in the right direction. As scientific communicators, we must ensure that every storm and every seasonal fluctuation is not attributed to El Niño through false enthusiasm. We must hold onto the reigns and point our thoroughbred El Niño in the direction of cautious utility for the community, rather than the wild speculation of the racecourse betting ring. This need will increase, as more and more "punters" join in the predictions of the future track record of El Niño."
Quoting 385. StormTrackerScott:



I figure I would post it again as 2 days ago you blasted me on it so I figure I would give you your daily dose of crow as you have been eating plenty lately and you will continue to do so as long as you try to combat my post.


What happened to the 4-6" that the "West Coast" is going to get?
Quoting 425. ricderr:

Myth 5: When there is an El Niño, there is lots of rain in California. No -- The answer is not always and not everywhere. Historical records for the past six plus decades for Central California, including the SF Bay Area, show that during the twenty-two El Niño events the rainfall has been roughly above normal (i.e., > 120%) half the time and below normal (<80%) the other half. If just the six strong El Niño events are looked at then the rainfall has been above normal four of the five seasons, and all four were at least 140% of normal. However, if only the weak and moderate El Niños are examined then it is seen that six of the 16 years received below normal rainfall, five near normal (80%-120%) and five above normal. [see Climatology of El Niño Events and California Precipitation]

Over the same span, Northern California had three wet years years during the five strong events, with five above-normal seasons during the seventeen weak-to-moderate El Niños.

Southern California showed more of a wet bias during strong El Niños with above-normal rain in four of the five seasons, near normal the fifth year. During weak to moderate events Southern California precipitation was above normal six of the 17 seasons, near normal six seasons and below normal the remaining five yearss.

The bottom line is that California can get wet during El Niño, but not always. As a matter of fact, the California drought in the 1976-77 winter was during a weak El Niño. It is important to keep in mind that El Niño is not the only thing happening in the atmosphere and that other patterns can either enhance or detract from its overall impact.






that weak EL nino that year we may have not had any warm waters up in the gulf of AK in oder two get good storms in CA we need warm waters in the gulf of AK if we have cold waters in the gulf of AK then are winters can be slower two even a bust like this year was we still got rain but not the kind of rain we need we need rain like FL is geting but not all at one time
Quoting 428. Tazmanian:




LOL whats up with the black line takeing a dip


CPC is flipping back and forth every few days it seems. As it stands El-Nino is here and it's very evident by looking at this map below. Should be declared the beginning of June.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 432. luvtogolf:



What happened to the 4-6" that the "West Coast" is going to get?


HRRR model did show that however some places got 2" to 3" however 8" to 10" fell west of Gainesville. Also the HRRR model was right on the money yesterday when showing 3" to 5" in some areas across E C FL.
Quoting 389. K8eCane:



Poisonous snake crawling time, which mortifies me.















i have seen nothing but snakes and turtles here in Wilmington..just crossing the busy roads of terrible drivers..the snakes I have no sympathy for but the slow turtles have no chance against our drivers..
A strong El-Nino would definitely increase the likely hood of heavy rains across California. The floods California will likely experience later this year could be extreme due to all of the wildfire ongoing now depleted the vegatation.

The last strong El Niño in the winter of 1997-1998 is a good case study of a wet El Niño year, but one with no major flooding. Despite nearly double the normal rainfall over most of California, there was nearly twice the number of days of rain with no huge concentrated deluges, and statewide damage totals were about $500 million. Compare this with the flooding that took place around New Year of 1997, a period with no El Niño, when a week's worth of warm atmospheric river rain resulted in $1.8 billion in damage statewide.
440. jpsb
Ever wonder why so few Skeptical papers are published? Well here is why

Study suggesting global warming is exaggerated was rejected for publication in respected journal because it was 'less than helpful' to the climate cause, claims professor


There is a similar report at The Times

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/article4091 344.ece
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:


I would rather deal with flooding than drought and wildfires any day. What they are going thru out west is just unreal and its only going to get worse as there rainy season is a long ways away.



Yeah, both scenarios are bad, but I'd rather have too much water than too little.
Quoting 385. StormTrackerScott:



I figure I would post it again as 2 days ago you blasted me on it so I figure I would give you your daily dose of crow as you have been eating plenty lately and you will continue to do so as long as you try to combat my post.
I love it when StormTrackerScott goes macho! He's sexy and he know's it !!!
Venomous not  poisonus like arsenic or a bad mushroom.
Poisonous snake crawling time,
.
Quoting 367. Neapolitan:



The point of those headlines--and others--isn't that a May Santa Ana event in and of itself is rare. It's that such a strong Santa Ana event, coupled with a record drought , and coming at the tail end of what's normally the rainy season but this year was practically nonexistent, is a possible/likely harbinger of what might be a particularly nasty time of fire. A few saving graces, though: 1) lower-than-average rainfall over winter leads to less profuse wildland growth, so there's actually a bit less to burn than there otherwise might have been; and 2) the pending El Nino is certain to bring rains by fall that could put an early end to fire season (albeit at the expense of floods and landslides).
Each of those headlines says "early." Hype-y headlines is what counts. Most people don't even read the story. Bottom line, I disagree with you.
446. yoboi
Quoting 367. Neapolitan:


The point of those headlines--and others--isn't that a May Santa Ana event in and of itself is rare. It's that such a strong Santa Ana event, coupled with a record drought , and coming at the tail end of what's normally the rainy season but this year was practically nonexistent, is a possible/likely harbinger of what might be a particularly nasty time of fire. A few saving graces, though: 1) lower-than-average rainfall over winter leads to less profuse wildland growth, so there's actually a bit less to burn than there otherwise might have been; and 2) the pending El Nino is certain to bring rains by fall that could put an early end to fire season (albeit at the expense of floods and landslides).


Not true.......
Quoting 440. jpsb:

Ever wonder why so few Skeptical papers are published? Well here is why

Study suggesting global warming is exaggerated was rejected for publication in respected journal because it was 'less than helpful' to the climate cause, claims professor


There is a similar report at The Times

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/article4091 344.ece



lol, the paper wasn't published because it offered nothing in the way of furthering scientific understanding.
Quoting 442. Llamaluvr:

I love it when StormTrackerScott goes macho! He's sexy and he know's it !!!
Wont be long before he stomps a mud hole in some trolls tail for sweatin Nino......:)
The Balkan floods :

The most outrageous thing about this flood, Thousands of landmines have been washed away from their original locations. You not only have a ruined life , it may have landmines buried in the mud next to your family keepsakes.