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Record early tornado season set to add more to its tally today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:17 PM GMT on March 03, 2008

March will roar in like a lion today over the Southern U.S., with another volley of strong EF2 and EF3 tornadoes possible over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this region under its "Moderate Risk" target today--one level below the maximum "High Risk" threat level. The powerful low pressure system responsible for today's severe weather developed over Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday, spawning at least two tornadoes and hail up to 4.25" in diameter. The huge hail was reported in Buffalo, near the Kansas border.

The intensifying low pressure system will move through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi today, dragging a cold front through those states. This front has already spawned severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas and southern Arkansas this morning, with many reports of damaging thunderstorm winds. The tornado page is a good place to track the tornadoes as they occur today, along with our severe weather page.

2008 sets early tornado season records
The year 2008 smashed the record for most January and February tornadoes, with 368. The previous record was set in 1999, with 235 January/February tornadoes. Reliable tornado records extend back to 1950. The 232 tornadoes reported in February of 2008 was a record for the month of February. Second place goes to 1971, with a relatively paltry 83 tornadoes. Each of the past three years has seen an unusually early start to tornado season (Figure 1). One would expect to see a shift in tornado activity earlier in the year in a warming climate, along with an earlier than usual drop off in activity in late spring. We can see that in both 2005 and 2006 that tornado activity dropped off much earlier than usual, and it will be interesting to see if 2008 follows a similar pattern. Note that there is a very high natural variability in tornado numbers, and the record for fewest ever January and February tornadoes was set just six years ago in 2002, when only four twisters occurred. It will be at least ten more years before we can say with any confidence that a warming climate is leading to an earlier peak in tornado season. There does seem to be a tendency for more early season tornadoes during La Niña years--four of the five years that had January/February tornado counts 75 or above were all La Niña years (1971, 1975, 1999, and 2008). The only exception was 1998, which was an El Niño year, and had 118 January/February tornadoes.


Figure 1. Tornado reports so far this year have totaled 368 for the months of January and February, by far the greatest number of tornadoes observed so early in the year. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Potential South Atlantic subtropical storm fizzles
Last Friday, I mentioned the possibility of a rare subtropical storm forming the South Atlantic off the coast of Brazil. It turned out that the candidate low pressure system wrapped a lot of dry air into its center, killing any chance it had to become a subtropical storm. There is still some vigorous tropical-looking thunderstorms firing up off the coast of Brazil this morning, and it is worth continuing to watch this region for formation of a subtropical storm. A separate low pressure system in southern Brazil has brought a wide variety of severe weather to Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay over the past few days, as documented in the metsul.com weather blog (for those of you who read Portugese). For those of you who don't, try the web page translator at http://babelfish.altavista.com/babelfish/tr.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Be Prepared today in the Southeast. NOAA radios are a must this day and every day.

Statement as of 10:37 AM CST on March 03, 2008

The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 91 in
effect until 6 PM CST this afternoon for the following areas


In Louisiana this watch includes 13 parishes
In central Louisiana

Avoyelles Evangeline Rapides
St. Landry

In south central Louisiana

Lafayette

In southwest Louisiana

Acadia Allen Beauregard
Calcasieu Cameron Jefferson Davis
Vermilion

In west central Louisiana

Vernon

In Texas this watch includes 2 counties

In southeast Texas

Jefferson Orange

This includes the cities of... Abbeville... Alexandria... Beaumont...
Bridge City... Bunkie... Cameron... Church Point... Cottonport...
Crowley... De Ridder... Eunice... Hackberry... Jennings... Kaplan...
Kinder... Lafayette... Lake Charles... Leesville... Mamou... Mansura...
Marksville... New Llano... Oakdale... Opelousas... Orange...
Pineville... Port Arthur... Rayne... Simmesport... Sulphur...
Vidor and Ville Platte.
Nice low level convergence and the resulting lightning, of course:

"The year 2008 smashed the record for most January and February tornadoes, with 368. The previous record was set in 1999, with 243 January/February tornadoes. Reliable tornado records extend back to 1950"

Wouldn't a lot more doppler radar stations and much better detection of tornados that would have been missed before
account for some of those records?

"In the early to mid 1990s, a national network of over 100 WSR-88D Doppler radar sites was built as part of the modernization of the National Weather Service."

Link
Aewsome infrared images of the Gulf Stream. Also notice the cloud streets begin at the Gulf Stream. There is where the cold dry continental offshore air is being warmed and moisten from beneath to form clouds.


Note that there is a very high natural variability in tornado numbers, and the record for fewest ever January and February tornadoes was set just six years ago in 2002, when only four twisters occurred. It will be at least ten more years before we can say with any confidence that a warming climate is leading to an earlier peak in tornado season. There does seem to be a tendency for more early season tornadoes during La Niña years--four of the five years that had January/February tornado counts 100 or above were all La Niña years (1971, 1975, 1999, and 2008). The only exception was 1998, which was an El Niño year, and had 118 January/February tornadoes.

Not to mention several studies that point to La Nina being the primary reason for increased tornado activity

Impacts Of ENSO On United States Tornadic Activity

THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ITS EFFECT ON TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN THE
UNITED STATES


Oh Great, more tornado's.
I hope that we don't see something like this...


Super Outbreak (1974)
Date of tornado outbreak: April 3-4, 1974
Duration: ~18 hours
Maximum rated tornado: F5 tornado
Tornadoes caused: 148 confirmed (Most ever in a single-day outbreak)
Damages: $3.5 billion (2005 dollars)
Fatalities: 315 - 330
Areas affected: Most of central and eastern North America

The Super Outbreak occurred at the end of a very strong, nearly record-setting La Niña event.


Strongest March La Nina on record?

Also... the SOI value of 20.99 for Feb is the highest for Feb on record. The top 10 highest for Feb are:

1928 18
1950 17
1918 16.5
1904 16
1974 16
1971 15.5
1910 15
1955 14.6
1879 14.1
Thanks Dr........It will certainly be touch and go for the Southern Gulf this evening-tommorow.......The pretty warm temps right now across this region (between 70-75F)is not going help the situation for LA/MS/AL......
To be sure today and tonight will bring a High Probability of widespread straight line wind and Tornado damage.
Encourage Family and friends to stay abreast of the rapidly changing weather conditions ,especially after dark tonight.

Help the elderly and those unable to be prepared.
One can contribute locally in many ways today and tonight.
No surprise here...a critical weather day declared:

"SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1140 AM EST MON MAR 03 2008

THE NWS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS AS WELL AS NCEP
HPC HAS REQUESTED A REGIONAL CWD TO COMMENCE AT 1800Z
TODAY AND WILL RUN UNTIL 1800Z ON THURSDAY MARCH 6TH.

THIS CWD HAS BEEN DECLARED DUE TO THE ONGOING THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THE
US..THRU THURSDAY.

NCEP..TOC/GATEWAY..NCF.. AS WELL AS THE NWS REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL PARTICIPATE IN THIS REGIONAL CWD TO ENSURE A
RELIABLE FLOW OF DATA AND MODEL PRODUCTS DURING THIS PERIOD.

GOES-EAST RSO TO RUN UNTIL 04/0126Z
DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
"
The outlook for today has the moderate risk area moved a little east and included more of the coastal areas of LA/MS/AL in the latest update. This includes risk from now through 12 UTC (7am CST) tomorrow.

Be on your toes, folks. NOAA does not issue a CWD for anything but the more threatening scenarios.

12. Patrap 1:41 PM EST on March 03, 2008

To be sure today and tonight will bring a High Probability of widespread straight line wind and Tornado damage. Encourage Family and friends to stay abreast of the rapidly changing weather conditions ,especially after dark tonight. Help the elderly and those unable to be prepared. One can contribute locally in many ways today and tonight.


That's right on the money Patrap and as I mentioned last time we had a severe weather threat.....If you live in a sturdy house or structure (preferable with some type of concrete basement), and have close friends or family nearby who may live in a moble home or other unsafe structure, bring out the mattresses and encourage them to spend the night just in case..........
Yeah, Patrap and weathermanwnnabe, I am going to be talking my grandmother out of sleeping in the FEMA trailer tonight in Slidell.
Critical Weather Day Procedures Link
Thats a good move atmos..
I live in Tampa, fl and just looked on the weather forcast for the week. It shows a 80% chance of storms tomorrow and windy. Has anyoine else around me actually heard the weather news for our area? I can't watch news feed from work sometimes. Some one here said its supposed to get pretty ugly around here.

thanks
Littleninjagrl,..Just put your Zip Code in the Box at the top left of this Page for a Local 7-day forecast..
Looks like Tampa probably will have a fairly routine cold front passage. From the Tampa NWS office:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
142 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...PLEASANT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC HANGS ON BUT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...KEEPING WINDS UP. THE FRONT MAKES
IT IN THE EAST GULF IN THE MORNING WITH SOME LATE MORNING SHOWERS
IN THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT TIMING MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE CWFA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO SCATTERED POPS. THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT BUT SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGH END SCATTERED POPS
FOR TUE EVENING. THE GFS IS FASTER...BUT NOT BY MUCH...THAN THE
NAM AND IS MORE ROBUST. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE GFS. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG SHOWERS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX CONTINUES
LOW. WARM TEMPERATURES TUE WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE BY
WED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 60-70 NORTH...50 CENTRAL AND 40 SOUTH. THE
BEST DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA LOWERING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL STILL HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WED AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
WED AFTERNOON.
The Tampa Page Link
Thanks!
Good afternoon,


Isnt it ironic that Super Tuesday had a outbreak and now it looks like Super Tuesday II will also have an outbreak.....Kind of scary.......I hope people are getting prepared up in Georgia South Carolina and so forth.....Its almost a foregone conclusion that some people will die in the next two days....Its just a matter of how many!!!!!!
That isnt necessary to mention. We all Know the weather claims Lives..emphasizing it here is of no value.

Politics,death and weather in the same Paragraph is a bad mix of Karma.
Tell me something that I dont already know....


Maybe in your opinion........But in mine it does! Sometimes you need to shock people to make them respond. If my previous message had been spread throughout the midwest on super tuesday, there would of been less loss of life. I know that some people feel the need to be politically correct....not me! And if I scare someone enough to pass the message along that could possibly save a life........oh well, upseting you will be a very, very small price!
Politics,death and weather in the same Paragraph is a bad mix of Karma.

Or just death for that matter..
Wonderful...carry on.
Scare tactics arent the way.Education and Public awareness is.

One more thing, the State of Florida puts out a forecast every holiday weekend predicting how many people will die from alcohol related deaths......Yeah lets all put out heads in the sand and let nature take its course.....good idea!!!!
You couldnt upset Patrap with a Boatload of Boulders dropped from a Great height.
I'd just step aside and watch the FAll..

LOL
Another reason to avoid Fla. during the Holidays too.

I think what Patrap is saying here is that your tone was awfully close to that of a wishcaster. A bit like some of the nuts who hope for and enjoy natural disasters that come in here whenever a TC is approaching and cheer for rapid intensification and the like.
Thanx for the clarifying post atmos,..

Its all about interpretation.....

I totally understand that most people that come on here already know the obvisious......but all of us need to spread the word to the ones who dont....A lot of people will not have a clue tonight or tomorrow........
25. Patrap 7:46 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
That isnt necessary to mention. We all Know the weather claims Lives..emphasizing it here is of no value.
------------------------------------------
34. weatherboyfsu 8:06 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
I totally understand that most people that come on here already know the obvisious......but all of us need to spread the word to the ones who dont....A lot of people will not have a clue tonight or tomorrow.....


SEE ABOVE STATEMENT BY PAT!
I hope that this ok to post.....I dont want to offend any of the want-to-be moderators on here......




weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
3 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles E Sharon MS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 92
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

TORNADO WATCH 92 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MSC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-
039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-
075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-
113-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-135-147-149-151-153-155-157-159-
161-163-040500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0092.080303T2025Z-080304T0500Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
GEORGE GREENE GRENADA
HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEFLORE LINCOLN
LOWNDES MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH STONE
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE WALTHALL
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$


Read post 21.....it explains about the tampa bay area........Everything is supposely staying to our north.......
Heads up Fort Polk (and surrounding areas)! Convergence aplenty, shear building, deep convection...

awfully close to that of a wishcaster. A bit like some of the nuts who hope for and enjoy natural disasters that come in here whenever a TC is approaching and cheer for rapid intensification and the like.

You mean Stormtop? LOL
For now......things could change.....The NWS has changed tune on this outbreak from yesterday......They have increased their forecast chances of severe weather based on the lastest computer models....so in any event, it could change for us but doesnt look to be in the cards for our florida area......
Now why are you picking on StormTop???? I found him amusing......I guess that makes me crazy.....
I didn't specifically have stormtop in mind, but, if the shoe fits...

Tampa Bay could still have some winds, could still have a EF0 waterspot drift onto land, should still have a Tstorm or 2, but nothing like what will be going on 200 miles to your north. In a relative sense, a normal cold front passage without much likelyhood for severe weather. That does NOT mean severe WX couldn't happen...
Not neccessarily. Sticking your arms in an industrial fan would be crazy.




interesting....

SPC AC 031730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SERN CONUS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
ALTHOUGH A FEW UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY FROM SRN/CENTRAL GA NEWD
ALONG PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS. TORNADOES ALSO ARE A
GROWING CONCERN. CURRENT 45% TOTAL SVR PROBABILITIES FALL JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK. HOWEVER...UPGRADE MAY
BE NEEDED TO MDT RISK FOR UPCOMING DAY-1 OUTLOOKS VALID THIS PERIOD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LIBERTY...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 340 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERTY BY 350 PM CST...
SMITHDALE BY 410 PM CST...

Here comes your first taste, Pat:

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BROOKHAVEN...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 403 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES SOUTH
OF CENTER POINT...OR 15 MILES WEST OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTER POINT BY 420 PM CST...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST LINCOLN BY 430 PM CST...
BOGUE CHITTO AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTH BY 435 PM CST...
ENTERPRISE BY 440 PM CST...
EAST LINCOLN AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROOKHAVEN BY 445 PM CST...

H-9 one to watch.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
Some tops peaking over 60K..

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Link
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MCCOMB...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF
MCCOMB...OR NEAR LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCCOMB BY 425 PM CST...
SUMMIT BY 430 PM CST...
55. IKE
431 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2008


...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 500 PM CST for west
central Lawrence and Lincoln counties...

At 431 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
track a tornado. This tornado was located 6 miles southeast of
Center Point...or 9 miles north of McComb...moving northeast at 35
mph.

Damage has already been reported with storm in Amite County!


The tornado will be near...
Bogue Chitto and 8 miles southeast of West Lincoln by 440 PM CST...
Enterprise and 9 miles northwest of Ruth by 445 PM CST...
Brookhaven and 6 miles northwest of East Lincoln by 455 PM CST...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
============================================

Earthquake Information
Issued at 23:41 JST 03 Mar 2008

23:11 JST 03 Mar 2008
Latitude 13.5N
Longitude 125.6E
Depth 30km
Magnitude 6.9
Region Name PHILIPPINES REGION
Appalachian State University in north-west N.C is on lock down.A gunman was spotted on campus.Tonight classes closed.


It looks to me like the storm located just east of Greensburg, Louisiana/North of Roseland LA may have multiple vortices (both located roughly a mile from eachother, the one closest to Greensburg being the strongest so far, the other is now weakening) judging from the program i'm running. In either case, the storm is showing a very strong rotation on Storm Relative doppler:

Looks like we are in for a pounding tonight
This is one heckuva cell. How can that not be a large nado??

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
533 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THORNTON...
HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BELZONI...
NORTHWESTERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 533 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
HOLLY BLUFF...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROLLING FORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MIDNIGHT BY 555 PM CST...
BELZONI BY 605 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF THORNTON BY 610 PM CST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Yesterday this system really picked up in the evening - we will see, but it looks like its doing the same tonight.
57. NorthxCakalaky 5:42 PM EST on March 03, 2008
Appalachian State University in north-west N.C is on lock down.A gunman was spotted on campus.Tonight classes closed.


Give me a break we're turning into our own worst enemies.
New TVS North Shore...Near Tylertown,Miss.
Link
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 548 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLERTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TYLERTOWN BY 605 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEXTER BY 610 PM CST... SALEM BY 615 PM CST...
very windy here in Biloxi, no rain yet.....shelters are open in Hancock and Jackson Co
sandcrab is on duty as the Jackson County,Miss EOC Manager..

Butch,Ya got ya ears on?
If Spock would stop flapping those ears of his this storm system might ease up a bit.
-plays the song "Its the End of the World as we know it"- Alot of Twisters going on this year, pray for those whom are in there path.
6:32pm Emergency Alert Cancelled
The Administration, in consultation with Appalachian State University police and Boone police, have returned the campus to a normal status. Students and personnel remaining on campus may leave with caution.

Classes for the evening of March 3, 2008 remain cancelled, classes for March 4, 2008 will be held as usual. All personnel should report to work March 4 as scheduled.

No further sightings of the suspect have been reported, but university and Boone police will be on alert through the evening and anyone seeing a suspicious person or activities should call 262-8000 or 911.
www.emergency.appstate.edu

more on this - Link
That low is tracking due East across the top half of Texas right now, as opposed to digging SE, so I wonder if the severe weather component will track further North and "scrape" the Florida Panhandle in the early morning; but if the line stays intact, it will be rough ride for Central MS/AL/GA over the next 10 hours.......
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 915 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
Cell Z-6 bearin toward Houma,LA...
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
Pat that is one bad line of storms....you can easlily see vorticies on radar.
This looks very dangerous.

Hattisburg needs to look out....
The Line is almost to the Metro NOLA area..

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 945 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1015 PM CST * AT 945 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR IMPROVE... OR 11 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MELBA BY 950 PM CST... SUMRALL BY 955 PM CST... SANFORD BY 1005 PM CST... MOSELLE BY 1010 PM CST...
There are 2 possible vortex's that is easily visible on radar. ONe appears due west of Hattisburg heading NE.
Meridian needs to be ready. That other cell is holding together with a vortex signature apparent.
The lack of southerly component to the parent low's track makes the trailing front much more likely to stall over the extreme S.Fl peninsula or Fl straits. The 2nd storm will form along stalled front and move N.E. That is the time that severe weather would be most likely over The southern half of FL. 2 days of stalled front followed by the 2nd storm could be a major blessing for Lake O or be a major flood issue. This will be a feast or famine deal like they always are in Southern Florida during winter. Let's hope for a prolonged widespread steady rain event over the lake and points north. Going into March there won't be many more opportunities for rain here until the rainy season starts.
The Subtropical Jet Stream is just south of the low pressure in Texas. If that low gets further South and taps more into the Subtropical Jet alot of energy will be available and could get real scary with Tornado's.
Ivan sometimes more rain now just makes for more vegetation to burn later. We just need a little rain more frequent.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1014 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAUREL...ELLISVILLE...
could be more of a wind issue then rain this weekend for Florida
The Vortex north of Hattisburg appears very impressive on radar.
42,000ft storm tops
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1046 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAUREL...
Tornado warnings coming out so fast it is unreal........WOW
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1053 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1051 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1046 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1027 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
5 tornado warnings in a 30 min time period..
W.Bro, what are you basing your wind prediction on? My rain ideas are based on stationary front just to our south, 2nd push of cold air moving SE thru TX/Oklahoma w/ upper level energy meeting the tail end of the stationary front in central GOM. Ample moisture to trigger rainfall before 2nd storm approaches. The Euro model is now picking up on storm#2 very similar to GFS before current storm system onset.(The various Models will come crashing into agreement after current storm exits CONUS) BUT the deciding factor will be NAO. NAO is in pos phase now, but is trending toward neutral-neg phase. If NAO goes neutral or especially negative, the storm track will shift southward and trend toward stronger systems.
With the current storm track heading so far north, I don't see a particularly strong wind event here unless storm#2 is stronger than expected.
Looking a little threatening...

Its actually seems to be getting stronger.
70deg. hum. at 83% sun shining and very windy in Tampa...at 7:30am
45 knot winds in the GOM.
These 2 Bouys are 500 miles apart North and South in the GOM.

Conditions at 42003 as of
(5:49 am CST)
1149 GMT on 03/04/2008: Unit of Measure:
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts

Conditions at 42039 as of
(5:50 am CST)

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts

Yipee, more Rain!
Sorry about the tornadoes but as for the rain... bring it!
Some of the lakes here are just rising above minimum desirable level. Finally some water is moving in north Florida.

This is a great list.
Huge storm west of tampa south of pensacola.
Good Morning Folks........Looks the the front line, around Northern Florida/Panhandle weakened overnight, but, yeah...That blob of convection heading towards the West Coast of Florida looks pretty ominous this morning........Hold on to your hats Tampa Bay Area and Central Florida...
Good morning all! Tampa, I have to agree. Convection in the GOM has been rapidly building as the frontal system encounters the warm airmass over Florida. Watch for there to be a solid line with convection developing in the GOM along the front late this morning and this afternoon as it progresses towards Central Florida by late day. Just be on your toes Tampa since there could be some quick street flooding with these storms. There is not enough energy to cause tornadoes over Florida, but I would not be surprised to see an isolated one develop.

Weatherbro, you are correct that this could create a wind event for South Florida as the pressure gradient will increase throughout the day with the low over the SE and high pressure over the Atlantic just east of the Bahamas will cause a squeeze play. You should already notice it in northern and central Florida.

Major concern here in Florida is the front stalling over South Florida. With abundant tropical moisture beginning to lift northbound and the slight lift with the frontal boundary, I'm concerned for possible flooding rains anywhere from Lake Okeechobee southward into the Keys as any showers and storms will likely not be quick movers. I don't anticipate much severe weather until late Friday into Saturday when the much-mentioned cold front starts to interact with this boundary.

But, as always with weather, we just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, even though I don't see any deadly storms, except with the lightning that could be produced. Only time will tell what will happen.
Taking a look at the satellite imagery, if this huge convective burst holds, South Florida may need to be on their toes since the frontal boundary is moving south and easterward which would place the convective burst over the West Central Gulf Coast by late today. Be careful driving if you live in Central Florida as I've noticed huge jumps in widn speed over the past hour.
We need Storm and 456 here to help us with analyzing the present situation. Things may get complex later today.
Ivansrvivr, how do see everything for Friday and Saturday? I still do not think the computer models have sorted things out with the current system making a total mess. We need this system to depart to get a better sense of the environment and where the features will be located in order to get a much better forecast on Friday and Saturday.
Keep alert...watch the system as it moves east. Not much analyzing needed.

GOM IR Loop... Link

This is a prime example for when we need radar to cover the entire GOM so that we can see the whole picture and not an incomplete view of the approaching storms.
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Link
Looking at the IR loop Pat provided, it appears that a strong squall line is attempting to form across the entire GOM. Like Pat stated, we need to keep alert to see if this convective hyperactivity continues and maintains itself as it approaches land.
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Link

No warnings since 0609 cst

Link
If you don't mind me asking, where do you live Patrap? Based upon what you post here, I know you have to live somewhere along the Gulf Coast.
I reside here:

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 5 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
48.2 °F / 9.0 °C
Mostly Cloudy
104. cchsweatherman 8:19 AM EST on March 04, 2008
Major concern here in Florida is the front stalling over South Florida. With abundant tropical moisture beginning to lift northbound and the slight lift with the frontal boundary, I'm concerned for possible flooding rains anywhere from Lake Okeechobee southward into the Keys


Best thing for South Florida (unless you are driving in it) is for the system to stall/slow down and "fill up" Lake O so water restrictions will not be as severe later on down the road.........
Cchs i agree with everything except it is already 72Deg. and the humidty is at 78% and the sun is shining in Tampa now at 8:45am. If we continue with the sun shining you will get lift and energy needed to create some problems IMO.
115. weathermanwannabe 8:47 AM EST on March 04, 2008
104. cchsweatherman 8:19 AM EST on March 04, 2008
Major concern here in Florida is the front stalling over South Florida. With abundant tropical moisture beginning to lift northbound and the slight lift with the frontal boundary, I'm concerned for possible flooding rains anywhere from Lake Okeechobee southward into the Keys

Best thing for South Florida (unless you are driving in it) is for the system to stall/slow down and "fill up" Lake O so water restrictions will not be as severe later on down the road.........


Too much rain at one time can do just as much harm as no rain at all. We can't take all the rain at once as it will create a flooding problem, which could lead to a major nuisance: mosquitos. It is warm enough that mosquitos could use the ponding as breeding ground. That is something many people are remise about when it comes to flooding. It can create health concerns.
I think we're in for a rough first half of March,the stormy pattern in February doesn't look like its going to let up.
116. TampaSpin 8:51 AM EST on March 04, 2008
Cchs i agree with everything except it is already 72Deg. and the humidty is at 78% and the sun is shining in Tampa now at 8:45am. If we continue with the sun shining you will get lift and energy needed to create some problems IMO.


Just finished taking a look at the latest CIMSS maps. One very startling observation came to my attention. There is a high amount of energy still present in the GOM. This energy was supposed to have been shot off towards the NE by now, but it has remained there and has begun to shift over Western Florida. You may be right, Tampa. There could be some problems, especially around your area. Keep alert.

The Subtropical Jet stream is cutting the GOM in the middle. This is why the bomb has went off in the GOM. I think the energy suggested missing might be there. Check out Water Vapor...wow.

Ok morning dudes, here SRQ/WFL/GOMEX the weather is definitely changing. Wind is picking up, checked the ocean for surf @6:00am,Nothing ridable yet, but plenty of wind chop. Barometer at 29.99, getting gust of wind up to 13 mph, kinda swinging SE to SW. Woke up w/my "weather headache" I can feel something in the air.
Wow - what a picture Tampa Spin! #121
Squeeze play occurring. Could get very windy.
Just updated my South Florida forecast on my site. Very worried about Saturday, but have also increased rain chances for today and tomorrow especially. Included mention of strong storms for tomorrow since I don't think the storms will get there until then. Be careful along the Florida Gulf Coast. Could be some nasty rip currents right now as well as some severe weather later today. I'll be interested to see if this convection holds throughout the day. If it does, then may need to mention severe weather for South Florida tomorrow.
Great pic of the Subtropical Jet if i am seeing this correctly.
Exactly what I discussed earlier. I love how we can relate weather with baseball. Two favorite things coming together. A thing of beauty.
If the front does not stall (and it is moving pretty quickly right now), it's looking like one quick day long rain event for most of Florida.......I'm happy for the plants and trees right now........
General surf alert for WFL surfers! Swell is on it's way from Texas. A southie swell should be up by this afternoon. Wednesday daybreak --6ft @ 8 sec. from the west with mild on shore winds. Winds should shut down by Wednesday PM. I don't understand why yet...but a 2nd swell is expected to push through Wednesday afternoon,giving 4-5 ft waves early afternoon. Thursday is clean-up day, at 1-2ft @9 sec. A good day to take your grom out of school and play hookie. IMAGINE 6ft in the gomex w/NO hurricane --a first for me.
This is the energy needed. Check this pic out.
Tampa, this is what I've been referring to. Lower level convergence has been increasing and expanding towards your area. This energy was supposed to have gone NE by now. It has yet to do so.
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Only in Florida.

could someone send me a message explaining why 4 counties with flood watches are surrounded by counties with fire weather warnings?
We keep getting fire warnings during heavy downpours. Even with lightning that seems dumb. The antisedant moisture conditions have been fairly wet too, but someone must know something I don't. The fire weather warnings seem to end at the state line. Is there a difference between states?
Just a side note. Someone had pointed out a particular disturbance in the Indian Ocean that they thought could become an invest. Well, we now have Invest 97S near the northern tip of Madagascar. The current numbers are 11.4S - 55.4W with wind speeds at 30 kts. (around 35 mph) and a minimum pressure 1000mb. Looks quite impressive on satellite imagery.


img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Trying to figure out when the rain will get to SRQ. heading out to the barn to take care of an injured horse, and work the rest of the herd out now instead of this afternoon --which looks to be dicey.

Good thought to mention rip tides/currents CCHSWeatherman -- Have a feeling some of this is going to be a bit too big and rough for me to surf, between lame horses/barnwork --I may have to wait till thursday. take care all I am off!
Great point Cchsweatherman! That could change the severe wx outlook for this area if that energy hangs around.
Looks like the system cleared out pretty quickly over Gulf/Coastal LA/MS/AL/.......Is the Sun shining yet over there? (looks like it from the Sat Loops)........
Long time, no see Nash. What have you been up to? Your thoughts on how things may play out here in Central and Southern Florida with these latest developments.

Good morning to you Storm. I would also like to hear your thoughts as well.
Just completed updating my Local Forecast page on my site. I've informed people about possible severe weather for Saturday as two frontal boundaries may collide over us. All Floridians need to monitor this current system and the next one coming out from the Rockies. It may not look impressive now, but once it hits the Gulf moisture and interacts with the subtropical jet stream, all bets are off as anything could happen.
shld be out the door, but spied Nash!!! glad to see you back!! Morning StormW, thanks for the forcast.
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Thoughts?
It seems the front is not slowing much...Tampa might get some rain in about 3 hours.
good afternoon to all:
It's still moving fast, but, the convection is thinning out right now........However, while it is just about done "passing" in the Big Bend, it's leaving some "gusty" spurts behind so expect some windy conditions on the West Coast...................Not a good time to swim or fish.....