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Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters
Apostle Islands Ice
Apostle Islands Ice
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Frozen Silence
Frozen Silence
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.

Winter Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1002. Gearsts
Quoting 961. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't worry much about the PDO for the next 2-3 weeks, it typically loses a lot of its amplitude around this time. If you remember, it got very muddled around this time last year as well.
Quoting 995. hydrus:
Anyone seen the latest GFS.?...I had to look twice to make sure I saw it correctly. If it did pan out, another shot of bitter cold air in mid March. We could have another record setting event with lows getting into the single digits over the Tennessee Valley, and teens for Northern Gulf States.



I'm definitely aware, but as scary as it is, I'm trying to pretend it it doesn't exist and hoping the GFS drops this garbage.
1004. sar2401
Quoting hydrus:
Anyone seen the latest GFS.?...I had to look twice to make sure I saw it correctly. If it did pan out, another shot of bitter cold air in mid March. We could have another record setting event with lows getting into the single digits over the Tennessee Valley, and teens for Northern Gulf States.


Nope. Sorry. I have sworn off 192 hour models after the fiasco of the last week. I'll take a look when it's maybe four days out. Until then, all I see is sunny skies and warm spring temperatures ahead. :-)
We could be in trouble REAL quickly in Western NC. Right now, that system WILL produce lot of rainfall over 1" for almost entire area west of I-95, but we're also very close to freezing in all layers of atmosphere. It only take one or two more degrees now to get devastating ice storm here and maybe two to three more degrees to get major snowstorm here. Right now, it's more likely we'll get lot of freezing rain since 850 mb is little too warm in most models.

This is for Thursday night, btw.

Quoting 1003. Jedkins01:


I'm definitely aware, but as scary as it is, I'm trying to pretend it it doesn't exist and hoping the GFS drops this garbage.
lol, I'm actually liking it. Anomalies intrigue me, regardless of their nature. >_>
Quoting 995. hydrus:
Anyone seen the latest GFS.?...I had to look twice to make sure I saw it correctly. If it did pan out, another shot of bitter cold air in mid March. We could have another record setting event with lows getting into the single digits over the Tennessee Valley, and teens for Northern Gulf States.

At that time a storm is suppose to be around.I can see the snow pilling up outside my window now.
1008. hydrus
Quoting 1003. Jedkins01:


I'm definitely aware, but as scary as it is, I'm trying to pretend it it doesn't exist and hoping the GFS drops this garbage.
I am tired of the cold. This was the coldest winter folks have seen here since 1985. And it definitely felt like it. I am concerned with this, so I will just watch the next few days to see what happens. I dont have to tell you with spring upon us, and the very cold air still being pushed far to the south, a serious severe weather outbreak is a distinct possibility. That is why I hope the Euro and GFS drop it.
This is nice
Quoting 1006. KoritheMan:

lol, I'm actually liking it. Anomalies intrigue me, regardless of their nature. >_>


Same. But then again, I live in California, so I'm not affected by anything but the drought.
1011. hydrus
Quoting 1004. sar2401:

Nope. Sorry. I have sworn off 192 hour models after the fiasco of the last week. I'll take a look when it's maybe four days out. Until then, all I see is sunny skies and warm spring temperatures ahead. :-)
I understand. I do not put as much confidence in the models as I do our local Mets..Models show what could happen, Mets tell whats likely to happen after evaluating all the models, and then add years of experience..Makes a big difference.

Quoting 1008. hydrus:
I am tired of the cold. This was the coldest winter folks have seen here since 1985.
Yeah, no foolin'. I was born in '91, so I am more than a little ecstatic I got to witnes such extremities.

Still lamenting that I've never seen overnight lows in the single digits, though, like where BR had a week of temperatures below 10F in 1989. Oh well.
Quoting 1006. KoritheMan:

lol, I'm actually liking it. Anomalies intrigue me, regardless of their nature. >_>

I like it because I like the cold, even in March. I also like approaching and breaking records, which has happened a lot this season.

EDIT: I love the cold. Like doesn't describe the joy I get from frigid temperatures, just like love doesn't describe the joy I get from snowstorms.

Quoting 1010. nwobilderburg:


Same. But then again, I live in California, so I'm not affected by anything but the drought.
Yeah dude... I could never live where you live. Weather is too benign to me.
Quoting 1012. KoritheMan:

Yeah, no foolin'. I was born in '91, so I am more than a little ecstatic I got to witnes such extremities.

Still lamenting that I've never seen overnight lows in the single digits, though, like where BR had a week of temperatures below 10F in 1989. Oh well.
You didn't miss much with the 89 freeze besides more frozen pipes and pipes bursting all over the place making streets look like ice rinks for days.

Quoting 1013. wxchaser97:

I like it because I like the cold, even in March. I also like approaching and breaking records, which has happened a lot this season.
I'll fully admit I hate the cold, it's just the record part that captivates me. Anything unusual does.
Quoting 1014. KoritheMan:

Yeah dude... I could never live where you live. Weather is too benign to me.


True, but at least I don't have to worry about hurricanes every year. Just an earthquake every 30 years.
1018. ncstorm
Quoting 1008. hydrus:
I am tired of the cold. This was the coldest winter folks have seen here since 1985. And it definitely felt like it. I am concerned with this, so I will just watch the next few days to see what happens. I dont have to tell you with spring upon us, and the very cold air still being pushed far to the south, a serious severe weather outbreak is a distinct possibility. That is why I hope the Euro and GFS drop it.


CFS..very long range but if its somewhat right and seeing still seeing the pattern we in now then dont expect to be wearing any shorts or short sleeves any time soon..

April



Quoting 1016. KoritheMan:

I'll fully admit I hate the cold, it's just the record part that captivates me. Anything unusual does.

I take it your the person who would get disappointed when a record isn't broken, like me.
Quoting 1018. ncstorm:


CFS..very long range but if its somewhat right and seeing still seeing the pattern we in now then dont expect to be wearing any shorts or short sleeves any time soon..

April



this winter will be nick named "The winter that won't end".I'll have to copy right that...

Quoting 1015. washingtonian115:
You didn't miss much with the 89 freeze besides more frozen pipes and pipes bursting all over the place making streets look like ice rinks for days.
Statistics don't lie though, wash. :)

Quoting 1019. wxchaser97:

I take it your the person who would get disappointed when a record isn't broken, like me.
Correct. As boring as last year's hurricane season was, I still find it rather... endearing that we only had two hurricanes and no major hurricanes.

Quoting 1017. nwobilderburg:


True, but at least I don't have to worry about hurricanes every year. Just an earthquake every 30 years.
On the contrary, one of the primary reasons I'd never leave Louisiana is the hurricanes.
1024. ncstorm
00z NAM

1025. Dakster
Quoting 1017. nwobilderburg:


True, but at least I don't have to worry about hurricanes every year. Just an earthquake every 30 years.


And wondering whether that will be the one that puts most of CA in the Ocean.
1026. hydrus
Quoting 1012. KoritheMan:

Yeah, no foolin'. I was born in '91, so I am more than a little ecstatic I got to witnes such extremities.

Still lamenting that I've never seen overnight lows in the single digits, though, like where BR had a week of temperatures below 10F in 1989. Oh well.
The 1980,s had some cold winters indeed. I remember them well too.
Quoting 1023. KoritheMan:

On the contrary, one of the primary reasons I'd never leave Louisiana is the hurricanes.


U say that now, but if there's another Katrina type storm, I think the lower portion of the state will be largely abandoned.
Quoting 1023. KoritheMan:

On the contrary, one of the primary reasons I'd never leave Louisiana is the hurricanes.

What's a hurricane?

Quoting 1027. nwobilderburg:


U say that now, but if there's another Katrina type storm, I think the lower portion of the state will be largely abandoned.
More like when there's another Katrina-type storm.

Quoting 1028. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's a hurricane?
A miserable pile of wind and water.
Quoting 1029. KoritheMan:

More like when there's another Katrina-type storm.

True
Quoting 1006. KoritheMan:

lol, I'm actually liking it. Anomalies intrigue me, regardless of their nature. >_>


True and I agree, but cold anomalies in March are gross.

If this were January, December, or even February, bring it on. However, I've had my share of winter and enjoyed it, I'm ready for Spring, not cold anomalies, lol.
How does 10/6/2 sound for this hurricane season? With Arthur and Isaias both becoming major hurricanes. I think we bust the drought this year too. Everyone is going to be thinking El Nino here comes another quiet season, then the big one comes.
Quoting 1008. hydrus:
I am tired of the cold. This was the coldest winter folks have seen here since 1985. And it definitely felt like it. I am concerned with this, so I will just watch the next few days to see what happens. I dont have to tell you with spring upon us, and the very cold air still being pushed far to the south, a serious severe weather outbreak is a distinct possibility. That is why I hope the Euro and GFS drop it.


Even more so if this continues well through spring, more cold air air spilling south also means deep troughs, strong upper systems. Eventually, there will be violent severe weather.

Although if this pattern persists, it may just arrive a bit later than usual.
Quoting 1028. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's a hurricane?


Those things that like to avoid Kori at all costs.
Quoting 1012. KoritheMan:

Yeah, no foolin'. I was born in '91, so I am more than a little ecstatic I got to witnes such extremities.

Still lamenting that I've never seen overnight lows in the single digits, though, like where BR had a week of temperatures below 10F in 1989. Oh well.


91......see that would make you 23.

Plenty of jobs in Fargo.

Last night was about 4 and we are looking at negative something Saturday morning.

Looking forward to wearing cotton under garments again. With the static from nylon and the gas from a little beer and Sauerkraut, a person could self immolate getting undressed at night.

Cheers
Quoting 1025. Dakster:


And wondering whether that will be the one that puts most of CA in the Ocean.


HEY, No need to go there!!!
Quoting 1035. Astrometeor:


Those things that like to avoid Kori at all costs.



**I'll remove if you ask me to mods**
Quoting 1028. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's a hurricane?


Depends on where you are.

In New Orleans it is rum fruit juice, syrup.

In the Bahamas is it coffee liqueur, 151 rum, Irish cream, and Grand Marnier.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 1036. Qazulight:


91......see that would make you 23.

Plenty of jobs in Fargo.

Last night was about 4 and we are looking at negative something Saturday morning.

Looking forward to wearing cotton under garments again. With the static from nylon and the gas from a little beer and Sauerkraut, a person could self immolate getting undressed at night.

Cheers



Heck, why not go all out, send the poor kid to Williston to freeze to death? Plenty of jobs out there!

But because I can only plus a post once, I had to come out of lurk mode tonight - I feel like a bad adult because a fart joke just made my day. :)
Quoting 1038. Doppler22:



**I'll remove if you ask me to mods**
Kori will be just fine he has been through a hurricane before, the most I have been through is the back end of Hurricane Jeanne, got a wind gust of 80 mph. which wasn't too bad. But I can only imagine when sustained winds start getting up past 100 mph. how nasty it can get. Anyone actually been inside a wind tunnel before? We actually have one at our school. Might have to test it out a day. :D

Link
Quoting 1017. nwobilderburg:


True, but at least I don't have to worry about hurricanes every year. Just an earthquake every 30 years.


Having been through both, if given the choice between earthquakes and hurricanes, I'll pick hurricanes every time. This is attributed to the following reasons: 1) you have at least 3 days warning most of the time 2) you can prepare hurricane parties to enhance the no power/stuck inside experience, and 3) It is warm if you are getting hit by a hurricane.

Earthquakes are one heck of a surprise!
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Hang in There Peeps...
KoritheMan 3:11 AM GMT on March 06, 2014 +1

Quoting 1017. nwobilderburg:


True, but at least I don't have to worry about hurricanes every year. Just an earthquake every 30 years.
On the contrary, one of the primary reasons I'd never leave Louisiana is the hurricanes.


And both reasons why I'll take the UK anyday...lack both! And lack tornadoes, and extreme heat, extreme ice storms, volcanoes even etc. I'm fascinated by them all...but don't want to be where any of it is close to commonplace. Life is hard enough and riddled with enough random problems and drama to deal with mother nature in extreme too! LOL

When my ex asked if I fancied moving to the UK, cause he didn't want to live in the US...geologically and meteorologically...it was a def yes LOL
Quoting 1041. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Kori will be just fine he has been through a hurricane before, the most I have been through is the back end of Hurricane Jeanne, got a wind gust of 80 mph. which wasn't too bad. But I can only imagine when sustained winds start getting up past 100 mph. how nasty it can get. Anyone actually been inside a wind tunnel before? We actually have one at our school. Might have to test it out a day. :D

Link


I really liked the experience of Frances and Jeanne, intense enough to be exciting but not bad enough to rip things apart, Debby turned out to be surprisingly fun because it formed a pseudo front that stalled over our area with numerous severe thunderstorms, some producing tornadoes. My storm total was 13 inches from it, and a wind gust to 64 mph, a lot more impressive than the original 40 mph gusts and 3 inches of rain originally expected.

I remember meeting you out at Indian Rocks Beach for Debby. Maybe we'll touch base again over the summer if we get another tropical system.
1046. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:

Correct. As boring as last year's hurricane season was, I still find it rather... endearing that we only had two hurricanes and no major hurricanes.

What I found "endearing" was that the NHC/NOAA and CSU's August updates dropped, I think, one storm from a prediction that needed about a storm every 10 days to come true. I think almost all the regulars here could sense that the 2013 season was headed down the dumper but not the people who are supposed to know. The seemed to get locked in to what the computers spit out in June and made a modest adjust even when the A-B was holding firm, the SAL layer was not going away, and instability in the Atlantic was pathetic. I'll be interested to see the predictions for this year and to see if the August updates are more realistic.

BTW, if any of you "The NHC/NWS are gods and can do no wrong" types are still up, just hush up for once. :-)
To be honest, the good thing about 2013 being dull is that there's no hype going into 2014 and that make it easier on waiting for a storm to pop out.
1048. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Hang in There Peeps...

GN, Ped, if you're not already in the sack.
1050. sar2401
So, seriously, I need advice. I'm looking at a bunch of thunderstorms forming in the Gulf off the western FL Panhandle. Anyone want to give me their best guess if they think the storms might get to me in SE AL and when? I need to decide if and when I should dope up my dog. He gets completely panic stricken during a storm and he's getting older, so getting that upset isn't good for him. I've tried everything my vet and I know and nothing works except a sedative. If I give it to him too early, it wears off before the storms get here. Too late and it doesn't act fast enough. I also hate to dope him up if we're not going to have a storm. Birmingham, of course, just says showers.
00z runs have really favored snowstorm here now. What a big shift from rain to ice to snow in just 12 hours for WNC...
1052. ncstorm
Good night yall..Florida just in time for the Noah movie..

1053. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
00z runs have really favored snowstorm here now. What a big shift from rain to ice to snow in just 12 hours for WNC...

I don't want to hear that. Out setup is for a Georgia Wedge, which transports cold air from the Carolinas over to Alabama. We are already expecting highs to be in the low 40's so we don't need any more cold air sneaking in.
Quoting 1053. sar2401:

I don't want to hear that. Out setup is for a Georgia Wedge, which transports cold air from the Carolinas over to Alabama. We are already expecting highs to be in the low 40's so we don't need any more cold air sneaking in.
Right now, models are overperforming the temperatures here slightly by 5 degrees. That's a sign that models are being too warm for tomorrow night.
Lots of lightening and thunder in Pensacola right now. No rain yet. Looks like it's all still out over the Gulf, but it's definitely on it's way.
1056. ncstorm
well one more post and then I am out..

Parched Wine Country growers turning to water witches

Link

:)
1058. sar2401
Quoting PcolaSurf182:
Lots of lightening and thunder in Pensacola right now. No rain yet. Looks like it's all still out over the Gulf, but it's definitely on it's way.

Thats what it looks like on radar, It appears the storms are starting to lose lightning as they come ashore. As long as they don't maintain convection as they move NE into SE Al, I won't have to dope up the dog. I don't know what the deal is with these 3 in the morning storms all the time now. I've had to drag myself out of bed three times in the past month to put the dog in a windowless bathroom where he can't see the lightning and the thunder isn't as loud. He still goes nuts, poor guy.
1059. sar2401
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Parched Wine Country growers turning to water witches

Link

:)

Having lived in Wine Country for almost 30 years, I can't say I'm surprised by this. A lot of people there also believe in psychic powers, ghosts, and UFO's. My theory is too much cocaine over too many years causes your brain to go funny. :-)
Quoting 1055. PcolaSurf182:
Lots of lightening and thunder in Pensacola right now. No rain yet. Looks like it's all still out over the Gulf, but it's definitely on it's way.


Not surprised, the upper system is providing strong upper divergence, that means fast updraft speed and thus lots of lightning.


000
FXUS62 KTBW 060150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORT-WAVE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THE 00Z TBW SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MBS. MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO THE POPS AND WEATHER...BUT DO NOT PLAN TO SEND TEXT ZONE
FORECAST UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL BE APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST TOWARD
MORNING WITH THE MAIN EVENT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 7 PM THURSDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS GULF SYSTEM SIMILARLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY EVENING. THESE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR
SUPPORTING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FORECAST FOR OUR AREA.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF AND
THEREFORE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THINK THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS
BETTER THAN THE NAM. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW WATERSPOUTS AND/OR TORNADOES.
1062. Grothar
Quoting 1052. ncstorm:
Good night yall..Florida just in time for the Noah movie..



Nite nc. Whatever floats your boat.
Quoting 1062. Grothar:


Nite nc. Whatever floats your boat.


You just have a flood of bad jokes, don't you Gro?
1064. Grothar
Quoting 1063. Astrometeor:


You just have a flood of bad jokes, don't you Gro?


lol. I am inundated with them.
Quoting 1064. Grothar:


lol. I am inundated with them.


You win.

Enough for me tonight, looks like I will have school for the first time this week tomorrow. Counties Closed for Tomorrow

Also, my school announced today that the basketball game tomorrow is more important than the ACT test...they canceled the ACT test for all of the juniors. Now the juniors have to use their own time to take the test...I feel bad for them.

Juniors can now ride the Pep Bus. The ACT will not be administered to juniors on Thursday, March 6.

Even at a school for smart people...sports are still favored over academia. Sad.
Another bust of a forecast from the NWS and TWC. Was supposed to get to 41 yesterday, we got to 31.5

Today it was supposed to get to 48 (then they adjusted downward to 45, with TWC calling for 51)...it got to 35.8 according to my weather station.

We still have some snow on the ground, so that probably contributed. But still! Bad forecasting this winter...
Quoting 1065. Astrometeor:


You win.

Enough for me tonight, looks like I will have school for the first time this week tomorrow. Counties Closed for Tomorrow

Also, my school announced today that the basketball game tomorrow is more important than the ACT test...they canceled the ACT test for all of the juniors. Now the juniors have to use their own time to take the test...I feel bad for them.

Juniors can now ride the Pep Bus. The ACT will not be administered to juniors on Thursday, March 6.

Even at a school for smart people...sports are still favored over academia. Sad.


If your school's basketball team is in playoffs, I can understand why they had to reschedule ACT since you can't really move state playoffs game to another day or it'll mess up the whole tournament across Tennessee.


Nice looking upper system, convection is firing on schedule in the quadrant beneath strong upper divergence.
86 days til hurricane season.
1070. sar2401
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice looking upper system, convection is firing on schedule in the quadrant beneath strong upper divergence.

So what do you think, Jed? Are those storms in the Panhandle going to get to me in Eufaula? I still need to decide if I dope up the dog before I go to bed.
Wheee! More rain due on Friday. This morning it was 20%, lunch time it was 60%, and before I went to my room it was up to 70%. Tomorrow some wind off Pyramid Lake - the clouds were all lenticular off in that direction as early as this evening's sunset, so I'm guessing earlier than the predicted 11:00am onset. Highs in the mid-60's, great weather to continue my excavation of the septic. Supposedly it was "engineered" installation; what I found now that I've dug up the pipe where it goes into the tank is the concrete around the intake pipe is rotted and torn to crumbles by the roots of the mulberry tree 20 or so feet away. Also the coupler that attaches the main line to the tank was never glued into place. And the drop is so feeble from the mid-line port to the tank that the pipe was half full of some dense, clay-like sludge. That section was the last of the "freezes up at the drop of a hat" line segment, and now I know why.

By the time I'm finished getting this system into shape, I will have learned more about plumbing than my mom.

Fred Lechuga, (www.fat2fitfred.com), a G+ acquaintance of mine, is really sick of having to run in the Chicago cold. Said he had to shovel this morning (after his running/yoga/workout) for the 100th time this winter (I do believe he's keeping track too.) I occasionally torment him with the long range stuff I see from y'all here.

The goats are now spending most of the day in the rapidly greening-up pasture. Lily the Nigerian cross (got some Nigerian, Boer and Pygmy in her blood) is bagging up and I really hope she doesn't wake me up in the midst of a cold, rainy March night needing a, um, "helping hand" with her kidding.

My little glass of "cherry herring" is empty now, one more refresh of the screen and I'm off. Lovely conversations as always! G'night.
1072. LargoFl
good Morning................
1073. LargoFl
well a rainy windy day ahead for us here today....
1074. LargoFl
1075. LargoFl
Folks..stay alert today....................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS.
1076. LargoFl
1077. LargoFl
GFS has the low coming into just north of Tampa Bay...
1078. LargoFl
geez we are in for it today around tampa bay......
1079. LargoFl
1080. LargoFl
Good Morning (or whatever for your particular time zone)
Cold, What Cold?

Grayling Army Air Field, Michigan -19
Detroit 13
Grayling, Alaska 3

Now -22

Everything seems (the new lol) normal
1082. LargoFl
well all the ingredients are there for one real stormy day today huh....
1083. LargoFl
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET (40 TO 50
KNOT RANGE) OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. THIS SHEAR
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED STORMS AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. IN ADDITION A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES
INCREASING INTO THE 250-400 M2/S2 RANGE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. RATHER COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (-10 TO -12C RANGE) VIA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE.
1084. LargoFl
well anyway..after this system moves away from florida we get some beautiful days ahead for us...
Looks like 2" to 4" of rain are going to occur across C FL today. Also watchout for tornadoes as there is a developing low due west of Tampa right now. This low may strengthening to 1003 or 1004mb before coming ashore near Tampa this afternoon.





El-Nino deniers can't deny that there is something going on in the atmosphere that is telling us that El-Nino is coming.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 42 degrees with a wind chill of 36 and a light rain. We'll get about ten degrees warmer later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel muffins, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
1087. LargoFl
Quoting 1085. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like 2" to 4" of rain are going to occur across C FL today. Also watchout for tornadoes as there is a developing low due west of Tampa right now. This low may strengthening to 1003 or 1004mb before coming ashore near Tampa this afternoon.



yes its been awhile since we have had a strong storm here around tampa bay..i hope folks listen to the warnings today
Quoting 1085. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like 2" to 4" of rain are going to occur across C FL today. Also watchout for tornadoes as there is a developing low due west of Tampa right now. This low may strengthening to 1003 or 1004mb before coming ashore near Tampa this afternoon.





El-Nino deniers can't deny that there is something going on in the atmosphere that is telling us that El-Nino is coming.



Those are very strong storms (especially to the S.W. of the radar site) to be picked up so well that far out in the GOM.
1089. LargoFl
stay alert and safe today folks..................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS.
Slight risk of severe weather for the Southern half of the state. I wouldn't dought this being updated.
1091. LargoFl
wow...........
1092. LargoFl
tornado outlook..oh oh...................
1093. LargoFl
1094. LargoFl
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES.
PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE LATEST
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

Quoting 1093. LargoFl:


I wouldn't be surprised to see those winds verify even without thunderstorms later this afternoon.
1096. LargoFl
Quoting 1095. StormTrackerScott:


I wouldn't be surprised to see those winds verify even without thunderstorms later this afternoon.
yes im afraid folks not paying attention today are in for a surprise huh..
1097. LargoFl
for south florida.................
THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THEY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

WIND: STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE WINDS COULD BE IN
EXCESS OF 58 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

HAIL: HAIL IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME LOCALIZED HAIL MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH.

FLOODING: URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

1098. LargoFl
I guess Jedkins is getting his share of the storms already huh...
Good morning.

Sunrise in San Juan.

1100. icmoore
Good morning Largo, Scott, and everybody. It looks like a little weather watching today for us in FL.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI. SRN
STREAM LOW NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO SRN MS BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E INTO CNTRL GA EARLY FRI. THE LOW IS
PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SVR...WILL CROSS
CNTRL AND SRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT AS BOTH THE LEAD
DISTURBANCES AND THE MAIN TROUGH IMPACT THE FL PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...UPSTREAM SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE W CST
WILL REACH NRN CA/SRN ORE THIS AFTN AND THE NRN GRT BASIN EARLY
FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.

...FL TODAY/TNGT...
LATEST SFC DATA PLACE SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO ARKLATEX UPR SYSTEM OVER
THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WITH STNRY FRONT EXTENDING ESE
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA A LITTLE N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AND TO THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/CONSOLIDATION OF ARKLATEX UPR TROUGH.

LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LEAD UPR IMPULSES...AND
UPLIFT ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAVE SUPPORTED
A ROBUST SW-NE ORIENTED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESE THROUGH MIDDAY. EMBEDDED
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS AND BOWS MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND TO THE W CST OF FL NEAR TAMPA
BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THAT TIME OR A BIT
LATER FARTHER S AND E OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES REDISTRIBUTE LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS OVER THE REGION.

AMPLE /40 TO 60 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN PRESENCE OF
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
FARTHER N...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR/ISOLD TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ALONG STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF
THE PENINSULA...WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPR LVL FLOW ALSO WILL
EXIST. BUT THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHERE THE GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH EMBEDDED IN LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS AND ALONG SEA-BREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO A FEW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...AND
DIMINISH AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
REFORMS NEWD OFF THE GA CST LATER TNGT/EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 03/06/2014
good morning everyone
1104. LargoFl
Quoting 1100. icmoore:
Good morning Largo, Scott, and everybody. It looks like a little weather watching today for us in FL.
good morning,yes today is our day for the bad weather..light rain by me right now..the heavier stuff still offshore..
1105. LargoFl
1106. LargoFl
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

1108. LargoFl
lol we are getting hit with a warm front-a cold front-and a strong low in the gulf..when they all meet later today..boom
1109. LargoFl

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS.
1110. LargoFl
ok so the real bad stuff hits me this evening maybe..
You guys need to check out the storm on the S.W. portion of the radar out in the GOM. It's on the same latitude as the Naples area. It's severe and shows rotation.

Need to look at the long range radar to see it.

On the local radar out of NBC in Fort Myers its very nasty with a black core (heaviest reflectivity of their radar).
Hopefully we won't see anything like that make it on shore later today.
Quoting 1108. LargoFl:
lol we are getting hit with a warm front-a cold front-and a strong low in the gulf..when they all meet later today..boom


You can surely see the rotation going on with the radar.
While the rain shield is solid, the storms are not looking overly strong or severe yet. Looking at the lighting data I'm seeing a lot of rogue strikes out there but noting really concentrated that would indicate a severe storm.

As you mentioned, they might come together and things could get more interesting, I'm just wondering if the stronger stuff will be more to our East and South?
Quoting 1025. Dakster:


And wondering whether that will be the one that puts most of CA in the Ocean.


The San Andreas fault system is a transform plate boundary. Wrong kind of boundary to put most of California in the ocean. Not gonna happen. Devastation? Yes, just a matter of time. The new Atlantis? No.
1114. LargoFl
Quoting 1112. jrweatherman:


You can surely see the rotation going on with the radar.
While the rain shield is solid, the storms are not looking overly strong or severe yet. Looking at the lighting data I'm seeing a lot of rogue strikes out there but noting really concentrated that would indicate a severe storm.

As you mentioned, they might come together and things could get more interesting, I'm just wondering if the stronger stuff will be more to our East and South?
we'll have to see later on..what we see on radar is just the early stages..heavy stuff comes later today..
1115. LargoFl
Quoting 1114. LargoFl:
we'll have to see later on..what we see on radar is just the early stages..heavy stuff comes later today..


So you think there will be a squall line behind this large area of rain?
1117. ARiot
Quoting 1113. CarlitosAtun:


The San Andreas fault system is a transform plate boundary. Wrong kind of boundary to put most of California in the ocean. Not gonna happen. Devastation? Yes, just a matter of time. The new Atlantis? No.


I agree. In fact. In terms of geologic time, I suspect the New Madrid and Mississippi River making a new gluf or inland sea would be more likely to give us a new "coastline".

It's hard to google either topic due to lots of conspiracy material and hyperbolic TV shows, but it's interesting to read articles from the geologic and education communities on the topic.

You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


it is global warming and as a result we have cold air displacement occurring from kinked jet stream's to wandering polar vortex's

change one thing change everything

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting 986. sar2401:

...I have no doubt the figures are right and the globe is warming. It's still not clear to me how much human activity or just the presence of increasing Co2 is the main contributor to this warming....

???
1126. LargoFl
Quoting 1121. GeoffreyWPB:
oh boy..its going to be booming here later today when that gets here huh
1127. LargoFl
Quoting 1116. jrweatherman:


So you think there will be a squall line behind this large area of rain?
oh yes,later today
Quoting 1121. GeoffreyWPB:


Looking at that lightening data, it sure appears that SW FL is going to get hit hard.
1129. LargoFl
looks like the squall line comes to us late afternoon or this evening..wow...
1130. LargoFl
Quoting 1128. jrweatherman:


Looking at that lightening data, it sure appears that SW FL is going to get hit hard.
yeah the low actually comes in just north of tampa,and it seems..reading the nws warnings..yours is stronger worded..we'll see later on what verifies..oh oh..just heard my first boom of thunder here..
1131. yoboi
Quoting 986. sar2401:

Drat! I forgot to mention that a malformed or just gigantic image has done that to me as well, and it got fixed when the offending post scrolled off my 50 posts at a time count. I've used Firefox but I must admit Chrome is faster, uses less memory, and just has a bunch of more useful features than Firefox.

Yes, I've read all the information and data at your link previously. As I said, I have no doubt the figures are right and the globe is warming. It's still not clear to me how much human activity or just the presence of increasing Co2 is the main contributor to this warming. I'm not all convinced humans, regardless of their scientific background, have the skill or precision to predict what the world will look like in 2100. I suspect that, in the next decade, it will become clear that AGW is a huge problem that will need lots of resources and skill to mitigate or that the whole thing is not such a big deal after all. Since I don't have the skill to predict the answer, I'm just hoping it will be the latter and not the former.




About 10%.........
1132. LargoFl
1133. VR46L
RAMMB Imagery

Loop Embedded


1134. LargoFl
ok so any severe stuff comes later today and this evening.............................THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND
AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C.
H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH
THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.

ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN
0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN
NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE
NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS.
here comes the heavy stuff largo

Good Morning from the steady rain in the Tallahassee/North Florida area.  I am working in Quincy today West of Tally and just drove through the rain.  No t-storms but just a steady downpour.

April [March] Showers Bring May [April] Flowers.

Here is the jet stream set up for today for the US and parts of Florida later today:


Lots of potential there for gusty winds along with t-storms for parts of Florida today and we will have to see how daytime heating impacts instability and the potential for a few tornado watches later.  However, it is not looking like an organized severe weather event at this point.
1137. LargoFl
Quoting 1135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here comes the heavy stuff largo

yes just heard the thunder..
1138. LargoFl
1139. LargoFl
Local met said the bad time will be when that big bend in the jetstream comes over us later today.......
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.
Yeah, I know, right? I was looking at the Fortune list of the 100 richest people in the world, and almost every one of them is a climate scientist. There's not a single fossil fuel merchant among them!
Well, last week's rains helped California, but not a whole lot:

The most significant storm of the season crossed California, delivering drought-easing rainfall to coastal areas and beneficial snow in the Sierra Nevada. In addition, rain in California’s agricultural regions temporarily eased irrigation requirements and aided drought-stressed rangeland and winter grains. However, spring and summer runoff prospects improved only slightly, as pre-storm snowpack values were near record lows and because drought-parched soils soaked up most of the available moisture. In addition, the storm moved too far south to provide optimal amounts of moisture in California’s key watershed areas, with the heaviest precipitation occurring in coastal and southern California rather than the Sierra Nevada.

drought

drought

The big ugly bruise remains...
1142. LargoFl
might be some supercell storms today...........
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


Yes, it is clearly a global conspiracy about grant funding because a career in academia makes scientists so rich. All the world's scientists, governments, academics, and major scientific organizations are involved in a conspiracy over grant funding. Are you aware of how absurd that actually sounds?

Personally, I love all my Ferrari's and summer homes in France. They said be an engineer, make the big bucks! I said no way, social science is the life for me: fast cars, government grants, women, and lavish homes.
1145. LargoFl
yoboi continues to blatantly lie with his 10% claim.

the science says:



meanwhile yoboi never provides a single shred of evidence backing up his 10% lie.
1147. LargoFl
Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
909 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE FL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...

SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...BRADFORD...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE AND UNION COUNTIES

.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE ALREADY ELEVATED SANTA
FE RIVER WILL CAUSE THE RIVER TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT FORT WHITE ON
FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ON MONDAY. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED BASED ON ACTUAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH TODAYS EVENT...SO RESIDENTS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS
ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND FORECASTS.

1148. LargoFl
901 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.NOW...THE LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE NOW PUSHING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4...INCLUDING THE ORLANDO METRO. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THE WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...
APPROXIMATELY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO BROOKSVILLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE...AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THINNER AND BETTER DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE ONSET OF
RAIN. EVEN IN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...EMBEDDED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE
WEATHER TODAY...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA.
1149. ARiot
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


On this magical government funding, how much is it annually?

How does it compare to other government funding for federal R & D?

Who gets it?

How may jobs does it provide for?

What does the average climate researcher working a government grant make while working a study?

How much do we support renewable energy compared to fossil fuel energy through federal money and resource security?

Who benefits from understanding climate patterns?

Answer these questions and you will probably no longer make silly comments about government research money.





Sooo, I'm guessing I picked a bad day to visit the Orlando offices?

Think I'll go ahead and reschedule that.
1151. LargoFl
1152. LargoFl
Quoting 1150. BobinTampa:
Sooo, I'm guessing I picked a bad day to visit the Orlando offices?

Think I'll go ahead and reschedule that.
yeah for sure,not a good idea being on I-4 today
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


That logic is horrible.

If money were the issue, there would be plenty of it for scientists who could prove AGW false with peer-reviewed, published papers. I'm pretty sure the fossil fuel industry could easily out-spend the tiny government grants if they thought the scientists could disprove AGW. However, that's not happening. Why? Because there are NO such scientific papers. Again, that logic is total fail.
1154. LargoFl

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
...DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING IN AFTERNOON

CURRENT...A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM KISSIMMEE TO MCO AIRPORT
AND TITUSVILLE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. THE LTST SOUNDING FROM
XMR YIELDED AN ENVIRONMENTALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS LARGELY DUE
TO THE OVERLYING COLD POOL OF -14C @H5 ALONG WITH PWAT NR 1.4
INCHES. CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WL ACT TO INHIBIT CONV POTENTIAL THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE THEME PARKS AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY NWD.

IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTN WITH APCH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
ABNORMALLY CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ALONG WITH SOME SB
HEATING AND THE INCREASED WINDS ALOFT. THE CONSIDERABLE RAIN SHIELD
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST WL BE MONITORED FOR EMBEDDED
CELLS TO OBTAIN ANY STRUCTURE AND CANNOT IGNORE THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT
FOR PSBL HAIL DEVELOPMENT. TIMING FRO ONSET OF STRONGER STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND FROM THE OSCEOLA
THEME PARKS TO COCOA AND SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
WILL TRAVERSE ECFL DURING THE DAY AND EMERGE OFF OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

(MODIFIED PREV DISC) MODEL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SHOW GREATEST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (HELICITIES) FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT(VALUES 400-600)...AND SOUTHWARD
(VALUES 200-400). GREATER INSTABILITY IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH
WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THINNER...BUT DEGREE OF OVERALL
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. WINDS MAY STAY BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TREASURE OR SPACE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THUS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

WL UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY FOR A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN AREAL VERBIAGE.

&&
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


Quoting 1155. GeorgiaStormz:


Low is really deepening about 200 miles west of Tampa right now. I hope C & S FL are ready for what is about to go down.
1158. ricderr
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.

"the internet is the perfect platform for people to prove their ignorance to a large audience."

JR
Some of the models are showing 50 to 60mph winds this afternoon across C FL as the low comes across. Well see.
1160. LargoFl
Quoting 1157. StormTrackerScott:


Low is really deepening about 200 miles west of Tampa right now. I hope C & S FL are ready for what is about to go down.
yes latest updates say this might turn severe..we'll see..pouring steady rain by me with some booming..not too much wind yet
1161. LargoFl
Quoting 1155. GeorgiaStormz:
wow georgia your going to get some of this also..stay safe up there ok
1162. LargoFl
birdbath is full already..not scientific but goes to show how much rain is falling here by me...
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Looks like all heck will break out for me later this evening...Jupiter got hammered last night.v
1165. LargoFl
Geez its a Good thing this isnt July huh........
1166. LargoFl
Quoting 1164. PalmBeachWeather:
Looks like all heck will break out for me later this evening...Jupiter got hammered last night.v
yes it seems we all are in for it later on..stay safe down there
Quoting 1160. LargoFl:
yes latest updates say this might turn severe..we'll see..pouring steady rain by me with some booming..not too much wind yet


My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?
Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

1169. LargoFl
Quoting 1167. BobinTampa:


My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?
no we are just getting to outer rains..the strong stuff is still way out in the gulf closer to the low..when that gets here..well..we'll see what happens...every warning says the heavy stuff comes late afternoon and evening
1170. ricderr
My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?


my big toe says no rain in el paso today
Quoting 1152. LargoFl:
yeah for sure,not a good idea being on I-4 today


To be fair, there is certainly no good time for I-4. :)
1172. LargoFl
well more and more thunder here on the coast..havent had a storm like this in quite awhile huh..
1173. LargoFl
Quoting 1171. Naga5000:


To be fair, there is certainly no good time for I-4. :)
gee i used to travel it every day before i retired..i know what you mean for sure.
Melbourne, FL (KMLB) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1176. hydrus
Cold
1177. LargoFl
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
941 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

GMZ830-850-853-856-870-873-876-061530-
941 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 933 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33
KNOTS FROM CEDAR KEY TO 60 NM WEST OF SARASOTA...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2924 8304 2919 8306 2919 8295 2903 8273
2896 8272 2890 8262 2826 8272 2818 8279
2807 8277 2788 8285 2692 8238 2667 8328
2740 8366 2787 8378 2849 8379 2886 8404
2913 8359 2930 8315

$$
Quoting 1170. ricderr:
My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?


my big toe says no rain in el paso today


Just checked. 0%. Big toe nailed it.
Quoting 1170. ricderr:
My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?


my big toe says no rain in el paso today


your under extreme tumbleweeds condition

dry up blow away
Quoting 1157. StormTrackerScott:


Low is really deepening about 200 miles west of Tampa right now. I hope C & S FL are ready for what is about to go down.
Cold air wedge is getting stronger over NC as the Gulf low deepens. NE winds at 13 gusting to 18. Dewpoint at 19 degrees. Winter weather adv. goes into effect at 6pm for mixed precip. Yea, more winter!
An El Niño Watch is in effect for the Equalaterial Pacific for this summer.
Your claim that Fort Wayne has had the snowiest winter on record is incorrect. According to data on the Midwest Regional Climate Center website, the snowiest winter season (Dec 1-Feb 28) is 61.1" 1981-82. This winter season (Dec 1-Feb 28) at Fort Wayne was second with 59.4". For the snow year (Jul 1- Jun 30) the record most snow at Fort Wayne is 81.2" in 1981-82. So far this snow year (through Mar 12) Fort Wayne has had 72.2" which is 2nd snowiest (so far).
1183. Jffklly
not to be critical, but was the statement "Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space," intending to say 'Fresh snow is very efficient at REFLECTING heat to space'?