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Record Atlantic SSTs continue; very active hurricane season foreseen by CSU and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on April 12, 2010

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest March on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The region between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.26°C above average during March. This easily beats the previous record of 1.06°C set in 1969. SSTs in the Main Development Region are already warmer than they were during late June of last year, which is pretty remarkable, considering that March is one of the coldest months of the year for SSTs in the North Atlantic. Last month's anomaly of 1.26°C tied with June 2005 as the greatest monthly anomaly ever recorded in the Atlantic MDR.


Figure 1. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

What is responsible for the high SSTs?
As I explained in detail in last month's post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter. This heating is superimposed on the very warm global SSTs we've been seeing over the past few decades due to global warming. Global and Northern Hemisphere SSTs were the 2nd warmest on record this past December, January, and February. We are also in the warm phase of a decades-long natural oscillation in Atlantic ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This warm phase began in 1995, and has been partially responsible for the high levels of hurricane activity we've seen since 1995.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
The high March SST anomaly does not bode well for the coming hurricane season. The three past seasons with record warm March SST anomalies all had abnormally high numbers of intense hurricanes. Past hurricane seasons that had high March SST anomalies include 1969 (1.06°C anomaly), 2005 (0.93°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.93°C anomaly). These three years had 5, 7, and 5 intense hurricanes, respectively. Just two intense hurricanes occur in an average year. The total averaged activity for the three seasons was 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes (an average hurricane season has 10, 6, and 2.) Both 1958 and 2005 saw neutral El Niño conditions, while 1969 had a weak El Niño. So, even if this year's El Niño lingers on into hurricane season, it may not protect us from a hyper-active hurricane season--the weak El Niño year of 1969 had 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

April forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season issued by Colorado State University
A well above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued last week by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The Klotzbach/Gray team is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The forecast calls for 30% above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (45% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (44% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an above-average risk of a major hurricane (58%, 42% chance is average.)

The forecasters cited two main reasons for their forecast of an active season:

1) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic are at their warmest levels on record in the Main Development Region for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Warmer-than-normal waters provide more heat energy for developing hurricanes. In addition, an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic is typically associated with lower sea level pressure values and weaker-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more unstable atmosphere with decreased levels of vertical wind shear, favoring hurricane development. Part of the reason for the substantial warming is because a weaker than average Bermuda-Azores High drove weak trade winds over the winter and early spring. These weaker winds acted to reduce evaporative cooling of the ocean. Weaker winds also decreased the mixing of cool waters to the surface from below.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. The CSU team expects the current weak to moderate El Niño conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak La Niña conditions by this year's hurricane season. April and May are typically the months when the atmosphere will swing between El Niño and La Niña, which makes any seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity during April low-skill. The current computer models used to predict El Niño (Figure 2) mostly favor neutral conditions for the coming hurricane season. The models used include statistical models, which observe how previous El Niño events have evolved, and sophisticated computer-intensive dynamical models (similar to the GFS model we use to make weather forecasts). The reliability of all of these models is poor, but the CSU team believes the ECMWF model (yellow-orange squares) is the best one. The ECMWF model only goes out to JJA (June-July-August) in this plot, and is forecasting neutral conditions.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in March. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Three computer models predict El Niño conditions and three predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). However, most of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar in April to what we are seeing this year. Those five years were 2005, the most active Atlantic season in history; 1998, which had Category 5 Hurricane Mitch in the Western Caribbean; 1969, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Camille, the strongest hurricane ever to hit the U.S.; 1966, which had Category 4 Hurricane Inez that killed 1,000 people in the Caribbean and Mexico; and 1958, which had five major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the April forecasts?
While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast uses the same formula as was used in 2008 and 2009. This scheme successfully predicted an active hurricane season in 2008, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due on June 2, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast last week, and they are also calling for a very active year: 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4.0 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 74% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 6% chance of a below normal season. They give a 77% chance that 2010 will rank in the top third of most active hurricane seasons on record.

Like the CSU April forecasts, the TSR April forecasts have little skill. I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 12% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 7% skill for hurricanes, and 6% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much better than flipping a coin.

TSR projects that 5.1 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950 - 2009 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 9 - 13% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.6 named storms, 0.7 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season: they predict slower than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.81 meters per second (about 2 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create greater spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling and reduced mixing of cooler sub-surface waters to the surface. TSR forecasts that SSTs will be 0.42°C above average in the MDR during hurricane season.


Figure 3. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

I'll have a new post by Thursday.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. NRAamy
shep....I can just imagine what that says....

;)
Quoting theshepherd:


síðan saban vinstri bænum tere hafa ekki verið neinar
Sounds like an insult an Iraqi man would say, lol.
Dinner time! be back later
1004. BDAwx
i took a deeper look into the frequency of the earthquakes to find that although, overall, the frequency of total earthquakes so far this year is pretty much the same as it has been for the past 11 years, BUT there is a slightly higher frequency of 5.0+ magnitude earthquakes this year than any of the past 11 years.
Using data from the USGS website as of yesterday (I think) 2010 has had, on average, 7.5 5.0+ earthquakes per day. while last year had 5.2 5.0+ earthquakes per day. 2007 had the second highest at 6.2 5.0+ earthquakes per day, and 2002 had the lowest at 3.7 5.0+ earthquakes per day. The average being about 5 earthquakes of this magnitude per day.
HOWEVER, I'd like to note that the data from 2000-2009 was for the entire year, while data from 2010 is from the first 102 days of the year, so this number may change by the end of the year if this frequency doesn't persist.
1005. Patrap
Careful,,them Iraqi's throw a wicked shoe or two,..

1006. Grothar
Quoting theshepherd:


síðan saban vinstri bænum tere hafa ekki verið neinar


The correct way to say that is, but very good try! I am impressed:

Það hafa ekki verið neinar
News bulletin in from the radio: The seismic unit has confirmed that a 3.7 earthquake struck the island centered in Chesterfield, St. Andrew at 3:51. It was felt all over Kingston.
Quoting Patrap:
Careful,,them Iraqi's throw a wicked shoe or two,..

LMAO
Quoting Grothar:


The correct way to say that is, but very good try! I am impressed:

Það hafa ekki verið neinar
What language is that?
Quoting Grothar:


The correct way to say that is, but very good try! I am impressed:

Það hafa ekki verið neinar

Oh well...least I got the "hafa ekki verið neinar" correct.

þakka þér
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

And I meant that it is moderate shaking, well at least to someone who rarely feels earthquakes.


I felt it too. I was in New Kgn. We evacuated but not everyone did. It was mild.

My folks live near Stony Hill and they felt it too.
1012. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What language is that?


Icelandic. It is related to Old Norse. Most students in the Scandinavian countries must study it, since it is the basis of the modern Scandinavian languages, and the old Norse sagas are written in a similar language. See, we do other things than skake and ski. LOL
Quoting kimoskee:


I felt it too. I was in New Kgn. We evacuated but not everyone did. It was mild.

My folks live near Stony Hill and they felt it too.

Yeah, I heard on the radio that it was felt in New Kingston and Stony Hill. I'm pretty close to Stony Hill.
Quoting Grothar:


Icelandic. It is related to Old Norse. Most students in the Scandinavian countries must study it, since it is the basis of the modern Scandinavian languages, and the old Norse sagas are written in a similar language. See, we do other things than skake and ski. LOL
lol, cool. Oh, how about eating old rotting sharks?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sorry, when he said a moderate earthquake in jamaica I didn't believe it because I din't find anything on USGS
Not all of the islands in the Caribbean have up to date seismic equipment so it takes a little longer sometimes to show up on USGS.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sounds like an insult an Iraqi man would say, lol.

Amigo...it's all in fun. Let's keep it in the family and not stir "that" pot. OK?
1017. ackee
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Yeah, I heard on the radio that it was felt in New Kingston and Stony Hill. I'm pretty close to Stony Hill.
I Felt the earthquake in spanish town too was weak Glass bearly moved

What's going on in the GOM ? Well defined 850MB Vorticity(I think). I am trying to learn so someone help me out please.
997- I didn't think politics were allowed BUT since you brought it up, let me first say, I am NOT a Bush fan, but in all fairness check into which President sent that budget back to Congress with a resounding "NO" and which President signed that budget "as is" soon after taking office..the bailout has made 78 billion in paybacks and interest for the taxpayers thanks to Bernanke....
1021. 47n91w
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Doesn't the SO2 have to be blasted up into the stratosphere to have a global, long-lasting effect though?

A long-lasting, slow eruption without big Plinian explosions could create a lot of local problems with acid rain---but I would think the SO2 would mostly get rained out in local storm systems.

Not really sure about that though. But I think that explosions like Pinatubo that injected lots of SO2 into the stratosphere have a lot more global impact than 'low level' eruptions.


I believe you're right. Pinatubo's column reached 21km in height, that's directly into the stratosphere. Any SO2 in the troposphere would have a hard time making it into the upper levels without some physical transport. Any SO2 from this Icelandic volcano does not look like it will make it as high up as 21km.
The second CRU report on "climategate" is out at the RealClimate website.

While having choice words for skeptics, yes, the report concludes that the statistics going into the hockey stick were flawed....
1024. barbamz
Icelandic volcanic ash heading for Britain expected to delay flights
Report Telegraph U.K.: Weather forecasters said the ash plume could drift over British airspace during the night, causing significant disruption to services. The movement of the plume, which has been drifting eastwards, is being monitored by both the Met Office and NATS, the air traffic control service.
Quoting EnergyMoron:
The second CRU report on "climategate" is out at the RealClimate website.

While having choice words for skeptics, yes, the report concludes that the statistics going into the hockey stick were flawed....


That was self evident 3 weeks after the leak.
Hopefully, they had some choice words for themselves. Couldn't wash all the dirt off their faces.
1026. NRAamy
the report concludes that the statistics going into the hockey stick were flawed

well, now it all makes sense...they used a hockey stick to predict GW! no wonder!
Quoting NRAamy:
the report concludes that the statistics going into the hockey stick were flawed

well, now it all makes sense...they used a hockey stick to predict GW! no wonder!


I'm a baseball bat person myself.
In the picture below you can see a messed up blob in the Gulf which could bring some rain to Miami.



Below you can also see that this blob has better 850MB vorticity than some TD's in 2009.



There is a chance that if it does survive it will make it to Miami raising the chance of rain up to 60% (possibly).
Quoting 47n91w:


I believe you're right. Pinatubo's column reached 21km in height, that's directly into the stratosphere. Any SO2 in the troposphere would have a hard time making it into the upper levels without some physical transport. Any SO2 from this Icelandic volcano does not look like it will make it as high up as 21km.


I think you're probably right. This was not explosive, which is usually what it takes to get ash up that high.
Quoting EnergyMoron:
The second CRU report on "climategate" is out at the RealClimate website.

While having choice words for skeptics, yes, the report concludes that the statistics going into the hockey stick were flawed....


When you read the actual report, it does not conclude that.
Quoting ackee:
I Felt the earthquake in spanish town too was weak Glass bearly moved


Waiting on the 7pm news for more information
Quoting kimoskee:


Waiting on the 7pm news for more information

I hear on the 5 and 6 pm that it was 3.7, epicenter somewhere in St. Andrew. Not sure where though.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


When you read the actual report, it does not conclude that.


You have to read between the lines.
Obviously they have never conducted an open aggressive investigation into wrong doing before.
I'm not interested in what they have to say now, I'm interested in what was revealed in the emails.
Also, there was no mention of "Sworn Testimony".
The report is moot.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I hear on the 5 and 6 pm that it was 3.7, epicenter somewhere in St. Andrew. Not sure where though.


I caught the end of the report on RJR so I didnt get the details. Hopefully TVJ will have something. The good thing is that it wasn't serious.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

What's going on in the GOM ? Well defined 850MB Vorticity(I think). I am trying to learn so someone help me out please.


Laurie, after looking at some data, I believe it is simply an extension of the upper-level shortwave trough currently over western and central Texas.

This is evidenced by the fact that the cyclonic vorticity is greatest at 200 mb.
1036. NRAamy
I'm not interested in what they have to say now, I'm interested in what was revealed in the emails.

exactly....
Quoting theshepherd:


You have to read between the lines.
Obviously they have never conducted an open aggressive investigation into wrong doing before.
I'm not interested in what they have to say now, I'm interested in what was revealed in the emails.
Also, there was no mention of "Sworn Testimony".
The report is moot.


What a criminal investigation into who stole the emails?
From the climategate report.

There is no mention of the hockey stick.

quote from the report:

"After reading publications and interviewing the senior staff of CRU in depth, we are satisfied that the CRU tree-ring work has been carried out with integrity, and that the allegations of deliberate misrepresentation and unjustified selection of data are not valid."

"We believe the CRU did a public service of great value by carrying out much time-consuming meticulous work on temperature records at a time when it was unfashionable and attracted the interest of a rather small selection of the scientific community."

"We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work of the Climate Research Unit"


Quotes are from the Report of the Science Assessment Panel. Link is below:

Link



I wonder how the Republican National Committee and the Tea Partiers will feel about stolen emails if someone hacks in their servers and releases juicy, damaging emails.

And the report exonerates the Climate Research Unit.
Of course skeptics aren't interested in the report when it didn't agree with the conclusions they had already drawn. Disagreement is 'moot'. Any disagreement with their preconceived notions is 'moot'.
Well i guess everyone is having dinner now. the blog went quiet.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

What's going on in the GOM ? Well defined 850MB Vorticity(I think). I am trying to learn so someone help me out please.

Hi stormwatcherCI, long time no talk, getting near that time of year again, hopefully we'll get some much needed rain soon.
Hey stormpetrol Are you ready for this season? i am
1044. Patrap
GOM IR Loop




Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin


Conditions at 42056 as of
(6:50 pm CDT)
2350 GMT on 04/14/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 73 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.5 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.1 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.3 F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 79.5 F
hey stormpetrol long time no see yes I am begging for a very good soaking shower That is atleast 2.00 in so what up with you other wise
Hey whats going on wunderkidcayman!
well alexhurricane1991 dry and hot like north africa wish we can get loads amount of rain
the two tone talkers!!
rufusbaker what are you talking about?
Wunderkidcayman you just got to hang in there and dont despair the rain is coming the question is when will it be coming.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Wunderkidcayman you just got to hang in there and dont despair the rain is coming the question is when will it be coming.

Good evening Alex and my fellow WU bloggers. A quiet evening around the blog. Weatherwise, hopefully the drought affected areas of the Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago will get some much needed rain soon!
1052. spathy
Thanks SSI
The second paragraph in that report sums up the whole problem!

The Panel was not concerned with the question of whether the conclusions of
the published research were correct.
Rather it was asked to come to a view on
the integrity of the Unit’s research and whether as far as could be determined
the conclusions represented an honest and scientifically justified interpretation
of the data.

Link


Translation...

I know him.
He is a nice guy.
We shared a limo to the conference.

Even if what he published is wrong....
He meant no harm.
1053. DDR
Hello wunderkid,blog
1051...We had some widely scatered showers & one T-storm today mostly offshore
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was 6.9 at first, was it bumped up?


The preliminary usgs report was 7.1, it was reviewed and lowered to a 6.9. the media outlets all ran with the 7.1
Good evening bordonaro when the caribean gets there first rain in a while we should have a blog party!
1056. pottery
Hi DDR. I thought that we would get wet today, but.........
1057. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Hi DDR. I thought that we would get wet today, but.........

Hi pottery,yea me too!
It actually rain heavy in Deigo martin for a couple mins,Tomorrow is promising though...
The report was concerned with whether there was dishonesty and malfeasance. And whether research was being done according to scientific standards. Whether the research is correct or not is not determinable at this time.

There were plenty of physicists who thought Einstein was wrong, and had reasonable hypotheses and research to back up what they believed. Later observations, like the bending of light around the sun during an eclipse, and measurements of time from tall towers and ground level, among other things, ultimately proved Einstein correct.

However, it is ultimately possible that the research is wrong anyway. But to determine that will require further observations, discoveries, scientific instruments and knowledge.

However the whole 'climategate' argument by skeptics is that scientists at the CRU were deliberately altering data and using altered data to promote an agenda. That has been disproved.

And for the record, it was nrtiwlnvragn who first linked the report.
Tomorrow may be the day you have been waiting for pottery.
1060. Patrap

..Tomorrows just the future,yesterday..
Quoting Patrap:
..Tomorrows just the future,yesterday..


great... now my brain hurts lol
1062. Patrap
LOL,

..sowwy bout dat VA,..
1063. pottery
Yeah, Alex, that would be so great.
I am looking at a heavy build-up of convection to the south, and hoping that it comes my way tonight.
The entire Tropical Atl and the Caribbean Islands area is looking very peculiar, for April. I dont remember seeing this much WV around at this time of year.
1064. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:


Heh! Only a snake could be that twisted.
LOL to you, Sir.


Hi Pottery, good day to you ole chap, I know, I just couldn't resist, it was for a cookie you know! :)
1065. RTLSNK
Quoting NRAamy:
RTLSNK!!!!! You stole my cookie!!!!!


Nope, I wasn't even close! LOL
1066. pottery
Greetings, RTL. Has it stopped raining on you?
Last I heard, you were hogging all the wet stuff, and complaining, to boot.
Its very active this year convection wise for april last year was dry as a bone, is it because were in a positive mjo?
1068. RTLSNK
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, Snake, good try, but not even close!

It is AYU-fee-apla-yurkull. No cookie for you!


AYUfeeaplayurkull, you know, there is a one liner there, I can feel it. :)
1069. help4u
AMEN!!!!!!Apocalypse-induced Misanthropic Environmental Nervousness!!!!!!
1071. RTLSNK
Hi Pottery, yes, finally. I wasn't really complaining, I just didn't know what to do with a yard full of mushrooms, toadstools, algae of all colors, snakes coming out of water filled nests, and large wolf spiders gathering on the front and back porches to get out of the swamp. Georgia Wolf Spiders are what you might call "teritorial". Wherever they are, thats their teritory. They just didn't understand that it was "my" porch. :)
1073. pottery
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Its very active this year convection wise for april last year was dry as a bone, is it because were in a positive mjo?


I have read learned comments here, about the pos. MJO.
I am not sure that I understand the ramifications of all that.
Sometimes I think we are fed too much information (with apologies to the learned ones).
I tend to take more a "stab in the dark" attitude with the weather predictions.
And you know, there are "stabs" that are quite effective, if one is able to concentrate on the nuances in the dark and not be put-off by the sound of the traffic outside (so to speak).
A well planned "stab in the dark" will get to the jugular every time (excuse the ghastly analogy) if you are able to feel the vibes of the issue.
I am concentrating on my Calabash tree, the mumbling of old voices, and the signs around and about.

Some Showers are coming, the season will be more active than usual, but the true start of the rainy season here is some way off.
Good evening storm!
hey stormW whats up with you
Quoting DDR:
Hello wunderkid,blog
1051...We had some widely scatered showers & one T-storm today mostly offshore


Good, I hope you get all the rain you need.

Here in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area, at 32N/89W we're supposed to be in our "spring rainy season"! NOT this year! The last good rain we had was on 3-24, that's 21 days and counting.

Here in the DFW, TX area, we only receive a total of 35"rain/yr. About 13-15" of that fall between 3-1 and 6-15 each year. It normally rains 3-4x/wk from early Mar-late May.

Usually between 6-15 and 9-15, we may see rain once every 2 weeks, if we're lucky. The Trinidad and Tobago heat wave you've had is our "normal summer weather". We have temps between 100-110F for at least 16-25 days a year.

We're in our "early summer pattern", except temps are perfect, lows near 14C/58F, highs near 26C/82F, low humidity and moderate SE breezes near 12KT/15MPH.

Bumper year for pollen. Our normal pollen count is 2500 grains/cubic meter of air in spring. Today's pollen count was almost 5500, my sinuses are going mad :o)!
1080. pottery
Quoting StormW:


Watcha wanna know about the MJO?


I actually understand the thing quite well,( but dont tell anyone!)
And most of the info I have came from the likes of you, with deep appreciation. Thanks for the offer, Storm.
What did it show storm?
Quoting StormW:


Watcha wanna know about the MJO?


Please explain how a positive MJO affects weather in the Tropical ATL/Caribbean. Thanks StormW!
1083. DDR
Pottery,how's the calabash tree?
I can tell you something about my mango trees,they're loaded.
Current TNA.

Quoting StormW:


The MJO, as it moves eastward and around the globe in a 30-60 day cycle, has two phases associated with it. There are negative values and positive values. In the following graphic, the green contours of the MJO represent upward vertical velocity or motion. During the season, this helps to aid in developing convection, as you have lift and mositure in the atmosphere. This is when we usually see tropical systems develop.

The brown contours represent downard vertical velocity, or motion, and represents sinking air. As we know, sinking air dires out the atmosphere, thereby supressing convective activity (you'll notice on water vapor imagery when we are under downward motion, you'll see dry air). No clouds, no storms. Not to say that it can't happen, but it's very difficult to get a tropical system going under the downwrad motion. You'll notice this, when we get something that starts to fire off convection and looks like it will pop, but once the clouds reach so high, they hit the dry air, and the convection dies. That's why under the downward motion phase, we see waxing and waning of convection.


Thanks StormW! That was alot easier to understand than what I found by Googling "MJO explanation".
Deadly storm in India/Bangladesh:

Link
Congrats ddr for the fully loaded mango trees you should eat some!
1091. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Pottery,how's the calabash tree?
I can tell you about my mango trees,they're loaded.


Lucky you! The young mangos here have almost all fallen, and the trees are stressed. The citrus was/is bitter!
The calabash tree is leafless (as it should be, now). The rains will come when it puts out new leaves (or that's what has happened for 22 years, anyway!!)
Pink and yellow Poui flowering again(normal), palms dying, Imortelle putting out leaves, the Forestry Dept says that large areas of Central and South may take years to recover from this one due to the intensity of the fires.
No wonder theres so much convection out there in the atlantic mjo has a real strong positive value on our side of the world.
TNA 27 year history chart.

Wow pottery it sounds serious anyways on a positive note when it does rain you should sing
Celebrate good times come on!
1095. DDR
Bordonaro -- i hear you.
alexhurricane,I'll share some with you if you want.i also have a fruit called 'balata' its redish-orange, small sweet and sticky.
Benblogger good evening. whats the tna?
Cool ddr very cool indeed in my opinion no fruit beats a nice mango!
1098. pottery
Balata is Yummy. Bitter/sweet, and the tree gets to be 150 ft. high. So picking them is fun too!
1099. DDR
I guess they'ed say the same for the northern range,I'm seeing alot of positive signs,rain is coming!
Quoting BenBIogger:
TNA 27 year history chart.



Already a warmer anomaly this April than peak-season 2005?! What exactly does this show?
Just dont fall! 150 feet is a long way down.
1102. DDR
I think you need to sample some exotic tropical fruits,lol.
Hey bloggers this Hurricane season proves to be a busy one looking at the prelimanary data....man whats going on with all the shaking who made the earth mad
Quoting DDR:
I think you need to sample some exotic tropical fruits,lol.
I may do that one of these days.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Benblogger good evening. whats the tna?


Good evening!

TNA stands for Tropical Northern Atlantic.

The TNA chart indicates the sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical North Atlantic.
Hey louisianaboy444 i have no idea why the earth is pissed off right now.
Oh okay thanks very much!
A beautiful spring evening in Arlington, TX. It's 72F, light S breeze, clear skies, lots of stars, me, the family dog, my laptop are enjoying an evening on the back porch.

Our weather is an awesome blessing from God, very beautiful :0)!
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Hey bloggers this Hurricane season proves to be a busy one looking at the prelimanary data....man whats going on with all the shaking who made the earth mad


THe number of earthquakes is pretty close to "normal"! Unfortunately, they're happening closer to populated areas, many of them have occurred at fairly shallow depths, causing alot of damage!
1110. pottery
Sounds good to me, Bordonaro.
Enjoy the Moment!
Wow thats picture perfect bordonaro here in tampa its a nice 71 degrees with no clouds to speak of its amazing!
1112. Seastep
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Well the deficit for the first 6 months of the fiscal year is running 8.2% below that of the deficit a year ago. So we are making progress. As a reminder, the budget last year was George W. Bush's last budget (Oct 1 2008-Sept 30, 2009). And the bailout was passed under George W. Bush. So we are making a little progress.

Link


What alternate universe do you live in? Seriously.

Seems folks living in that universe need a little reality check. Sorry, it must be said.

The FY09 budget presented to Congress by the President was $3.1 Trillion on expected receipts of $2.7 Trillion. $400 Billion deficit.

The FY10 budget presented to Congress by the President and passed was $3.5 Trillion on expected receipts of $2.3 Trillion. $1.2 Trillion deficit (300% more). Projected to actually be $1.5 Trillion in the FY11 budget as receipts have been adjusted down and expenditures adjusted up.

As for TARP, current cost is $115 Billion (and already down to $89 billion by some estimates and will most likely cost the taxpayer zero as the estimate continues to drop). Forget the $700 Billion number. If that money is spent, it's all on the current govt (and, yes, they'll spend it).

Porkulus, on the other hand, is a real $787 Billion that will never be repaid to the taxpayer. That's $10,600 per taxpayer.

FY11 Budget? $3.8 Trillion on revenues of $2.5 Trillion. $1.2 Trillion deficit. Jmo, but I assure you it will be more than $1.2T.

Might be less because taxes for the new Healthcare bill start now, but no expenditures until 2013-14 (convenient, huh?). So money that is allocated for future expenditures will be used to claim a "reduction" of the deficit.

Anyone who thinks this administration and congress are going to reduce deficits is living in a fantasy world.

Just sayin'. Money doesn't grow on trees.

Oh, and why is the deficit down from same period last year? Ironically, TARP. Just the fact of the matter.

Bottom line is, $3.1 Trillion for FY09 has turned into $4.5 Trillion, entirely due to expenditures of the current govt.

And NEVER forget that only congress can spend money. It is under their complete control.
1113. pottery
Drat! Here it is 82F, humidity 84%, with cloudcover.
Oh Well..........
Quoting pottery:
Sounds good to me, Bordonaro.
Enjoy the Moment!

I will, summer comes along really quick. They only use the word "hot" in North Central TX weather forecasts usually if the high temps are 100F or higher!!
Its okay pottery.
Quoting BenBIogger:


Good evening!

TNA stands for Tropical Northern Atlantic.

The TNA chart indicates the sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical North Atlantic.


I read somewhere that it's an anomaly. This April is the highest anomaly since at least the 1980's, and surpasses both 1998 and 2005?!
Quoting pottery:
Drat! Here it is 82F, humidity 84%, with cloudcover.
Oh Well..........

Don't you have the NE trades blowing at about 10-15MPH tonight? At least you're going to finally get some much needed rain!
Bordonaro the summers in texas can be rough in san antonio one summer a whole week of 110 or higher tempratures no joke you go out for five minutes and your sweating bullets!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Wow thats picture perfect bordonaro here in tampa its a nice 71 degrees with no clouds to speak of its amazing!

Tampa-St Pete is beautiful. My late wife and I visited there in 1-00. Weather was great, until the day we left, it was 32F, windy and cold!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I read somewhere that it's an anomaly. This April is the highest anomaly since at least the 1980's, and surpasses both 1998 and 2005?!


Yup, Which makes it quite interesting for this upcoming hurricane season.
Thanks bordonaro ive been to dallas/fort worth a couple of times its a lively city with a lot of people and a great mall the galleria i say its great because of the skating rink inside!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Bordonaro the summers in texas can be rough in san antonio one summer a whole week of 110 or higher tempratures no joke you go out for five minutes and your sweating bullets!

Normal DFW summers are about 95 days above 90F, 16 days above 100F.

I missed the 1980 heat wave. In 1998, we had 56 days above 100F, 29 days in a row, a high of 111F at the DFW, TX AP, 84 days without rain. We had 111F on Sunday, a cool front brought isolated severe thunderstorms with 90MPH winds. The next day the high was only 100F!

I love the heat. I drink plenty of water, and the dew points are normally between 55-60F when we hit 100 F. Although it has been 100F with a relative humidity of 50% once, the heat index was 118F!!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

"I read somewhere that it's an anomaly. This April is the highest anomaly since at least the 1980's, and surpasses both 1998 and 2005?!"

The cauldron is bubbling -- wonder what this brew will turn into in a month or three.
1124. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

Don't you have the NE trades blowing at about 10-15MPH tonight? At least you're going to finally get some much needed rain!


Current windspeed 6 mph at the Airport. Calm here, 10 miles south of that. Sticky weather.

(enter 'piarco' in the search box at the top of this page for Trinidad weather)
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thanks bordonaro ive been to dallas/fort worth a couple of times its a lively city with a lot of people and a great mall the galleria i say its great because of the skating rink inside!

In the 30 yrs I have lived here the population has gone from 3.5 million to 6.5 million, and growing.

Ft Worth, TX had about 435,000 people in 1980, in 2008, we passed 720,000. Arlington, TX had 120,000 people in 1980 and in 2008, we were up to 365,000!
Thats what it was the heat wave of 98 thats what i was talking about.
Quoting pottery:


Current windspeed 6 mph at the Airport. Calm here, 10 miles south of that. Sticky weather.

(enter 'piarco' in the search box at the top of this page for Trinidad weather)

Sounds steamy! The satellite pic shows plenty of cloud cover, hopefully you'll get a good, soaking rain!!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thats what it was the heat wave of 98 thats what i was talking about.

I remember when it finally rained, on day 85, my entire family did a rain dance in the pouring rain!
1129. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

Sounds steamy! The satellite pic shows plenty of cloud cover, hopefully you'll get a good, soaking rain!!


Looking forward to that. Heard thunder in the west today for the first time this year. Looking at the images, there is plenty of cloud over a vast area of Northern South America.
And the water vapour images shows plenty of moist stuff around too.
Yeah i remember the first rain after the heat wave me and my mom were singing celebrate good times come on i just heard it on the radio and i was 7 at the time.
1131. xcool
hey allll
Think about positive things pottery and mother nature will reward you tonight with rain!
1133. pottery
Greetings, xcool.
1134. pottery
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Think about positive things pottery and mother nature will reward you tonight with rain!


heheheheh, thanks, I like that.
Hey xcool hows it going!
1136. xcool
pottery hey alexhurricane1991 .just tired
Hey its the least i can do pottery!
1138. Seastep
Hi Pottery. Sorry for the interjection into the nice banter this evening.

Couldn't help it.

And, something tells me you're going to be regretting your rain wish. Always happens to me. :)
Ooooh! It might actually RAIN in Arlington, TX tomorrow!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 PM CDT WED APR 14 2010

.UPDATE...
FORTUNATELY THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN HAS NOT BROUGHT SUMMER TIME
HEAT TO THE REGION...BUT IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS SEEN APPRECIABLE RAIN. EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOULD CHANGE TOMORROW AS A WELL DEFINED 300-500MB TROUGH
AXIS ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...AREA SOUNDINGS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ARE INDICATING RISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THIS
MOISTURE IS POISED TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. AS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME SYSTEMS...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING...DUE TO LACK OF
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND JUST BROAD/WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE. THUS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THOSE THAT DO SEE RAIN PROBABLY
WILL STAY BELOW A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS REDUCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT TO JUST THE WESTERN ZONES...AND TO ADD LOW CHANCES TO
EARLY TOMORROW EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS WERE MADE.

TR.92
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The preliminary usgs report was 7.1, it was reviewed and lowered to a 6.9. the media outlets all ran with the 7.1


i don't think it was, i saw it within 10 minutes of it happening. it is the chinese that are reporting it as a 7.1
Alright bordonaro hopefully this isnt a cruel joke mother nature is playing on you guys!
Link below to an article from our friends at The Weather Channel (TWC) about the possible tornado that hit India/Bangladesh earlier today:
Link
1143. pottery
No Problem, Seastep.
And yeah, I hope not to have any regrets, but it looks kind of ominous really, for the season.
But it's weather, and you know how that goes...
Quoting Seastep:
Hi Pottery. Sorry for the interjection into the nice banter this evening.

Carry on.

And, something tells me you're going to be regretting your rain wish. Always happens to me. :)
he will get 10 inchest of rain over a three day period possibly beginning tomorrow near noon
Pottery feel free to take some of our rain! We were asking for it and we got it!! Some points in NE Puerto Rico have had over 16 inches since yesterday!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Alright bordonaro hopefully this isnt a cruel joke mother nature is playing on you guys!


At this point, we have had only 0.09" of rain, that fell on 4-2-10. We will take whatever we can get!

The Upper Midwest, northward into Saskatchewan, Canada, they're getting our precip, as all the areas of L pressure get shunted northward by the blocking ridge of H pressure!
Wow benirica but you guys needed that rain.
Dang high pressure!
1149. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he will get 10 inchest of rain over a three day period possibly beginning tomorrow near noon


Gee Thanks, Keeper! With friends like you, who needs enemies? LOL!
You really think so? 10" would be real Horrors here.
1150. pottery
Quoting benirica:
Pottery feel free to take some of our rain! We were asking for it and we got it!! Some points in NE Puerto Rico have had over 16 inches since yesterday!


That's incredible! Hope there was no damages.
1151. xcool


Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Dang high pressure!

Yeah, it will literally park itself over North Texas come mid June and it won't leave until sometime in September!
Thankfully all is well. A lot of it fell in areas with little population and apart from flooded roads and landslides closing off some routes, it seems everything is ok.
Luckily, a lot has fallen right where it needs to fall! In the spots where we collect our water is where most fell.
Actually that 16 + was measured at the rainforest, which is where the rivers that give water to the east coast are born.

Let's hope the rain stops for a while (have to be careful not to ask for more droughts!).... Whenever we have tons of rain the only image I get is of the extreme flooding in 2008. Now THAT was incredible, and just a tropical wave. Went to show how the real killer and destroyer is the water, not the wind.
Concerning the upcoming Hurricane season, has Joe Bastardi had anything to say about that over the past few days?
Quoting pottery:


Gee Thanks, Keeper! With friends like you, who needs enemies? LOL!
You really think so? 10" would be real Horrors here.
it will rain tommorow pottery lookin at current conditions i would give ya a 60 percent chance of showers and thunder showers
1156. pottery
Glad to hear that, Rica.
1157. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will rain tommorow pottery lookin at current conditions i would give ya a 60 percent chance of showers and thunder showers

Sounds good to me, Keep!
you won't get 10 inches tommorow but over the coarse of 3 maybe 4 days may bring you close to that
1159. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you won't get 10 inches tommorow but over the coarse of 3 maybe 4 days may bring you close to that

I hear you, and I am looking at the situation too. It is very possible that we could get some very heavy rains over the next couple of days.
We hope not, because this has been a bad few months for fires, and the steep slopes of the valleys are burned, so very little vegetation to slow any run-off.
Although the land is dry, the hillsides are baked hard and will not be porous for a while. Heavy rains will probably cause flooding and landslides.
That's why I am concerned.
1160. pottery
It's midnight!
I'm gone.....
You see pottery think positively and positive things will happen!
Good night folks, will be back in the morning! Peace :0)!
later pottery sleep well friend as for myself iam off to do the same night all be back lurking tomorrow
ZZZZZZZZZZ....
Good night everyone see you tomorrow.
hey no long no see everyone :)
1167. JRRP
.
You place too much emphasis on the areas with warmer than normal SSTs and ignore the areas like the Gulf and the area to the east with lower than normal SSTs. Temperature differences greatly increase the volatility of the oceans. Warm water mixing with colder water can be explosive, including causing strong circulations as water from the warm and cold areas blend together.



1169. barbamz
Good morning, everyone!

Ash from Iceland's volcano disrupts UK air traffic
(AP) – 1 hour ago

LONDON — Officials say ash clouds drifting from Iceland's erupting volcano have disrupted air traffic across Britain.

Flights have been suspended at the English cities of Manchester and Birmingham, as well as in Belfast in Northern Ireland and the Scottish airports at Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh.

The ash has also disrupted operations at London Heathrow, Europe's busiest airport, where at least 150 flights were canceled. Another 138 flights have been canceled at Britain's second-busiest terminal of London Gatwick.

U.K. airport operator BAA says "major disruption" in air traffic is expected, while the National Air Traffic Service explains "volcanic ash represents a significant safety threat to aircraft."

The volcano erupted Wednesday.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

LONDON (AP) — Airports in Scotland have shut down due to ash from Iceland's spewing volcano as it erupts for the second time in less than a month.

Hundreds in Iceland have fled rising floodwaters around the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier.

Airports in the Scottish cities of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh were closed Thursday and flights from the English city of Birmingham and from Belfast in Northern Ireland were also affected.

U.K. airport operator BAA says "major disruption" in air traffic is expected.

The National Air Traffic Service says airspace has been restricted because "volcanic ash represents a significant safety threat to aircraft."

The volcano erupted Wednesday.

Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.


Including a map:
Volcanic ash cloud: latest news from British airports
1170. barbamz
Update

Volcanic ash halts Europe flights
(UKPA) – 27 minutes ago

Ash clouds from Iceland's spewing volcano has disrupted air traffic across Northern Europe as authorities closed Nordic and British air space, shut down Europe's busiest airport at Heathrow and canceled hundreds of flights.

Irish authorities also closed their air space for eight hours.

With the major trans-Atlantic hub at Heathrow closed, dozens of flights to the US were on hold, and cancelations spread across the continent to major hubs at Brussels, Amsterdam, Geneva and Paris, where flights heading north were canceled until midnight.

In Iceland, hundreds of people have fled rising floodwaters since the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted on Wednesday for the second time in less than a month. As water gushed down the mountainside, rivers rose up to 10 feet by Wednesday night.

The ash cloud has not disrupted operations at Iceland's Keflavik airport or caused problems in the capital of Reykjavik, but has affected the southeastern part of the island, said meteorologist Thorsteinn Jonsson.

In one area, visibility was reduced to 150 yards, he said, and farmers were advised to keep livestock indoors to protect them from eating ash particles as sharp as glass.

The volcano was sending up smoke and ash that posed "a significant safety threat to aircraft," Britain's National Air Traffic Service said, as visibility is compromised and debris can get sucked into airplane engines.

In northern Sweden all air traffic was suspended, affecting the cities of Skelleftea, Lulea, Kiruna and Hemavan, the national aviation authority said. Air traffic in northern Finland was also halted.

Norway's King Harald V and Queen Sonja -- who had planned to fly Thursday to Copenhagen for the Danish queen's 70th birthday -- were looking to take a "car, boat or train." A canceled trans-Atlantic flight left Norway's Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg grounded in New York.

Copyright © 2010 The Press Association. All rights reserved.
One could argue that the Iceland eruption will have an effect on the upcoming Hurricane season.

Hopefully it cools the MDR down.
1174. barbamz


1176. SQUAWK
Quoting barbamz:
Iceland volcano: Flight radar shows Britain's empty skies


Well Barbara, looks like all the naysayers from yesterday that said the volcano is having no effect and is finished are going to eat a little crow this morning.
1177. SQUAWK
Especially this guy.

938. Jeff9641 5:20 PM EDT on April 14, 2010

The talk of some people on here about this Volcano Eruption is insane considering it not that big of a deal and it's hardly affecting anyone.
1178. barbamz
Quoting SQUAWK:


Well Barbara, looks like all the naysayers from yesterday that said the volcano is having no effect and is finished are going to eat a little crow this morning.


They may enjoy their meal. I'm at least glad, that the early reports in the German Media didn't turn out to be only panicmongering. Living very near Frankfurt Airport I'm wondering whether we will feel the decrease of air traffic later on. When I find the first ash on my balcony I'll tell you. Lol.
I'm out. Have a nice day.
1179. WxLogic
Good morning...

Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...



Good Morning.....Just lurking and drinking coffee until Dr. M updates his blog this morning and watching all of the moisture in the MDR, ITCZ and Caribbean on the WV loops and wondering if it will still be there come June and July........)
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...


Good evening.

Wet season waves goodbye


Heavy rain over the western Top End on Wednesday night may have been the last burst of the wet season.

The storms began in the north before moving southwest. Cape Don recorded 82mm to 9am, with 6mm falling in 10 minutes, a common occurrence in the tropics.

Further south and inland Batchelor Airport received 78mm to 9am, their highest April rainfall since 2006. Walker Creek and Adelaide River were both soaked with 84mm to 9am. The heavy rain stayed west and south of Darwin, with the city only receiving 5mm to 9am.

A trough extending over the north of Australia is responsible for rainfall throughout the wet season. As Australia begins to move into an autumnal weather pattern this area of unstable air will move further and away from Australia's tropics, leading to more calm and dry weather for the Top End.

The trough responsible for the storms over the Top End is forecast to move north over the weekend, where it is expected to remain until next wet season.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2010
Quoting SQUAWK:
Especially this guy.

938. Jeff9641 5:20 PM EDT on April 14, 2010

The talk of some people on here about this Volcano Eruption is insane considering it not that big of a deal and it's hardly affecting anyone.


This guy says it's not a big deal. So SQUAWK on that. This a tropical weather blog not a VOLCANO blog.
Good morning everyone. Cayman Islands FINALLY getting some light showers. Praying for more.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. Cayman Islands FINALLY getting some light showers. Praying for more.


The change is here. Deep moisture all across the Caribbean this morning will lead to showers and thunderstorms during daytime heating.
Quoting Jeff9641:


The change is here. Deep moisture all across the Caribbean this morning will lead to showers and thunderstorms during daytime heating.
It is very overcast here but windy too. Winds are 25 mph so the cloud cover is blowing over pretty fast. Just hope there is enough moisture around that we will still get rain. I have never seen it so dry here in the 37 years I have lived here.
Good Evening Aussie/Morning US guys.

Do folks along the Top End feel any of the tremors that have been centered in Indonesia, or is it just too far away?

Too bad the wind off of Iceland is blowing the ash east and not west. I was hoping it might possibly shade the sea ice near Greenland rather than clog jet engines in Europe.
could not believe how dry nicaraqua has been no rain since november. things down there can change fast
Tropical moisture building into Florida will lead to afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Penisula starting this weekend extending into next week. Things are about to start getting hot and humid in the Orlando area very soon.
Quoting leftovers:
could not believe how dry nicaraqua has been no rain since november. things down there can change fast


Wow!! They can thank El-Nino for that. It does appear that the deep moisture axis over S America is beginning to shift north into the Caribbean so maybe they will start seeing some rain soon.
By Aude Lagorce, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Several airports were shut and hundreds of flights canceled across the U.K. on Thursday as concern about an ash cloud formed from a volcanic eruption in Iceland forced air-traffic control to close most of the domestic air space.


Reuters

Smoke billows from a volcano in Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland.

Visibility is not the issue, as all aircraft are equipped with systems allowing them to navigate through heavy clouds. The fear is that the tiny particles of rock, glass and sand in the ash could jam engines.

In the early 1980s a British Airways jet saw its four engines fail as it flew through a plume of volcanic ash. A similar incident occurred a few years later with a KLM flights.

The cloud is expected to move through the Northern U.K. and Ireland by 1 p.m. local time.

In Scotland, all airports were shut, and many others throughout the U.K. -- including Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham -- were disrupted.

All London airports will be shut from late morning.

British Airways /quotes/comstock/23s!a:bay (UK:BAY 242.20, -0.80, -0.33%) said in a warning on its Web site that it's canceled all domestic flights for the day and won't be able to operate any flight out of London's Heathrow, Gatwick and City airports after 11.30 a.m.

EasyJet /quotes/comstock/23s!a:ezj (UK:EZJ 483.30, -1.70, -0.35%) is also canceling all flights set to travel through the affected air space.

Ryanair /quotes/comstock/23s!e:rya (UK:RYA 3.99, -0.07, -1.60%) /quotes/comstock/15*!ryaa.y (RYAA.Y 30.37, +0.38, +1.27%) canceled all flights to and from the U.K. from 9 a.m. and warned of potential further cancellations and delays Friday. It also cancelled flights to and from Ireland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

BA, EasyJet and Ryanair were offering their passengers the chance to book on the next available flights or to get refunds.

Aude Lagorce is a senior correspondent for MarketWatch in London.
1191. aquak9
Quoting Jeff9641:


This guy says it's not a big deal. So SQUAWK on that. This a tropical weather blog not a VOLCANO blog.


Easy there, Jeffs. We try to all be friends here- well, MOST of us. Even DocMaster's has touched on other topics at times.

There's a wealth of great info packed in the brains of our WU-Bloggers...enjoy the free education, wherever the discussion might lead.
This upper air disturbance moving into S TX may have it's eye's on Florida in a few days. The models appear to be having difficulty deciding what to do with this disturbance.
Quoting aquak9:


Easy there, Jeffs. We try to all be friends here- well, MOST of us. Even DocMaster's has touched on other topics at times.

There's a wealth of great info packed in the brains of our WU-Bloggers...enjoy the free education, wherever the discussion might lead.


I'm fine, I was just retorting back. I have a lot of knowledge as well and I do enjoy hearing about other things besides tropical weather but a discussion about a little Volcanic plum is just getting carried away some. I've seen nothing about this on US news networks.
Quoting barbamz:
Iceland volcano: Flight radar shows Britain's empty skies


I was being questioned yesterday to my belief that this will prevent some heating of the Atlantic ocean and i stand by that belief. As the Sulfur particles will loop around and cover the ITCZ area of the Atlantic. This just might have been our piece that prevents a very bad year which it still may be.
1195. aquak9
I've seen nothing about this on US news networks.

well, we don't always...
Quoting aquak9:


Easy there, Jeffs. We try to all be friends here- well, MOST of us. Even DocMaster's has touched on other topics at times.

There's a wealth of great info packed in the brains of our WU-Bloggers...enjoy the free education, wherever the discussion might lead.


Great point; other than the "kids" on here who only focus on pretty narrow issues all day, a good number of the bloggers are adults, many with degrees and keen life experience, who have a broad range of interests related to natural phenomena (not just tornadoes and hurricanes) who bring a great wealth of collective knowledge and life experience to the blog.....It's a great place to learn if you take the time........
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
One could argue that the Iceland eruption will have an effect on the upcoming Hurricane season.

Hopefully it cools the MDR down.


One could also argue that warm air will get trapped easier (ie, Greenhouse effect) and cause the air to get hotter, or higher SSTs.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


One could also argue that warm air will get trapped easier (ie, Greenhouse effect) and cause the air to get hotter, or higher SSTs.


Nope it won't happen that way in my opinion. The sulfur particles deflects sunlight like a piece of alumuinun and will cast the sun outward back at the sun not allowing the ocean to heat.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Great point; other than the "kids" on here who only focus on pretty narrow issues all day, a good number of the bloggers are adults, many with degrees and keen life experience, who have a broad range of interests related to natural phenomena (not just tornadoes and hurricanes) who bring a great wealth of collective knowledge and life experience to the blog.....It's a great place to learn if you take the time........


Some of us kids have degrees as well! No I'm not 80 and have lots of life experiences but I do know enough.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Some of us kids have degrees as well! No I'm not 80 and have lots of life experiences but I do know enough.


Be careful when you claim you "but i do know enough." I get reminded by my wife that i don't know crap daily and i now know i know very little.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope it won't happen that way in my opinion. The sulfur particles deflects sunlight like a piece of alumuinun and will cast the sun outward back at the sun not allowing the ocean to heat.


You make it sound like Mt. ST. Helen's erupted. This will have no impact on this years hurricane season. MY OPINION!!
1202. SQUAWK
Quoting Jeff9641:


This guy says it's not a big deal. So SQUAWK on that. This a tropical weather blog not a VOLCANO blog.


If it is a tropical weather blog why is it that you are always forecasting doom and gloom from non tropical systems in Conus?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Be careful when you claim you "but i do know enough." I get reminded by my wife that i don't know crap daily and i now know i know very little.


Hey, I here you. When it comes to my wife I say you your right so I won't have argue. God forbid if we say were right. It's best to agree and move on.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope it won't happen that way in my opinion. The sulfur particles deflects sunlight like a piece of alumuinun and will cast the sun outward back at the sun not allowing the ocean to heat.


True, however I don't believe the Volcano will be enough. It might lower SSTs in the very Northern MDR. In 1980 we had Mt. Helens right? That was far more powerful than this Volcano, we had 11 storms including Allen which was an 899 mb 190 mph beast. (And this was during the inactive period, if it happened now It would be like 15 or 16)
Quoting Jeff9641:


You make it sound like Mt. ST. Helen's erupted. This will have no impact on this years hurricane season. MY OPINION!!


Well i'm gonna have to disagree with you! With the current plum that continues, it will in my opinion not allow the MDR warm as much as first thought. It does not mean it won't still heat but, just not to the degree i could.
Quoting SQUAWK:


If it is a tropical weather blog why is it that you are always forecasting doom and gloom from non tropical systems in Conus?


I never forecast doom and gloom I just forecast weather for Florida and none of it has been doom and gloom. We have had tornadoes here this winter. Also, when I would put out a forecast I'm normally right to some degree. Yes, some of our severe wx event weren't as severe but we did get hammered here at times hence my 19" of rain so far this year but ZERO in th bucket for April.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Well i'm gonna have to disagree with you! With the current plum that continues, it will in my opinion not allow the MDR warm as much as first thought. It does not mean it won't still heat but, just not to the degree i could.


This Volcano is too small in my opinion to cause any decline in storms this year.
a friend is in england and her flight was canceled to come home to canada because of volcanic ash and visibility. ??
We will have to wait on the Plume issue for a few months to see if it has any effect on the current warm anomoly come July and August...That current 1.26 anomoly aparently makes a huge difference and lots of things can potentially happen to it over the next three months.......
1211. msphar
It seems to me that a volcano plume in Iceland would be affected by Hadley cell wind drift which should move the dust further North or settle it out if near the boundary of the next further North cell of air. So I suspect this plume will not reach the ITCZ easily as the ITCZ is quite low at this time.
Quoting JeffMasters:


This was a severe thunderstorm or tornado, and not a tropical cyclone.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Doc, I saw this on news the other day. This tornado hit with 100 mph winds. You never really hear about tornadoes in India. I was surprised to hear about this.
1214. msphar
That plume is being affected by the Northern jet currently which should move the dust into Europe. Even if it reaches down toward the lower jet, it would be a long ways around before it circumnavigates the world and possibly reach the MDR. Like dust off of Africa quite a bit of mixing with other air should dilute its affect after that enormous journey.
Quoting msphar:
It seems to me that a volcano plume in Iceland would be affected by Hadley cell wind drift which should move the dust further North or settle it out if near the boundary of the next further North cell of air. So I suspect this plume will not reach the ITCZ easily as the ITCZ is quite low at this time.


I don't disagree with your thinking but, because it is such high in latittude the particles will circle the earth near the smallest point at the top and when it comes back around is when the affects may be felt.....here is a loop to shop.

Hey i may be reaching but anything i can find to hold this years storms down would be a plus.
Quoting msphar:
That plume is being affected by the Northern jet currently which should move the dust into Europe. Even if it reaches down toward the lower jet, it would be a long ways around before it circumnavigates the world and possibly reach the MDR. Like dust off of Africa quite a bit of mixing with other air should dilute its affect after that enormous journey.


The journey is not as large as it seems....look at the northern hemp loop....it circles the top half much faster than the middle would.
1217. P451
Well gotta go. Rough day today for our family! This will be a rough one. Thanks for all the prayers and support from everyone. This year has to get better for our family as this cannot continue. But, then again i guess God can and will call any time.
Quoting msphar:
That plume is being affected by the Northern jet currently which should move the dust into Europe. Even if it reaches down toward the lower jet, it would be a long ways around before it circumnavigates the world and possibly reach the MDR. Like dust off of Africa quite a bit of mixing with other air should dilute its affect after that enormous journey.

My thinking is on this ash plum is, it will encircle the north pole and not let in as much sun light/heat and keep the summer melt to a minimum.
1220. msphar
I am with you in hoping for less this summer rather than more, Tampa, but just trying to think realistically about that dust flow. The last thing I would want to see is a hot MDR. My baby seats near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico so the MDR is near and dear to my heart.

I'd cheer the Iceland dust as much as the shear but I don't think it will do much good after that first circumnavigation.
Nino 3.4 is finally heading south (at least on the graph that I post). The CPC graph has been showing it in a cooling phase for a while now.
1222. msphar
The jet in the Icelandic area is arcing down towards central Europe.
1223. msphar
May the
Good Lord Bless you and your fanily Tampa. Yours is a sad story. It pulls at the heart.
1224. Grothar
Iceland volcano grounds flights across northern Europe
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Thousands of passengers headed to or from northern Europe are stranded this morning as ash clouds from a volcano eruption in Iceland affects aviation there. The BBC says "the huge ash cloud is drifting south, leaving airports closed and a number of passengers potentially stranded in the UK and overseas. Experts say the ash affects visibility and debris can get sucked into airplane engines, which could affect the safety of air travel."

The Associated Press reports "Britain's Civil Aviation Authority said non-emergency flights would be banned until at least 6 p.m. (1700 GMT, 1 p.m. ET). Irish authorities also closed their air space for eight hours."

With that, the shutdown of British airspace effectively suspends operations at London Heathrow, one of the world's busiest airports. AP says Heathrow, "Europe's business airport, handles upwards of 1,200 flights and 180,000 passengers per day. The closure also affected London's second- and third-largest airports, Gatwick and Stansted. It was not immediately clear when flights would resume."

AP adds that "with the major trans-Atlantic hub at Heathrow closed, dozens of flights to the United States were on hold, and cancelations spread across the continent to major hubs at Brussels,Amsterdam, Geneva and Paris, where flights heading north were canceled until midnight." The Independent of London reports "hundreds of flights across the UK were already cancelled and airports in Scotland closed indefinitely."
Quoting msphar:
That plume is being affected by the Northern jet currently which should move the dust into Europe. Even if it reaches down toward the lower jet, it would be a long ways around before it circumnavigates the world and possibly reach the MDR. Like dust off of Africa quite a bit of mixing with other air should dilute its affect after that enormous journey.


Ash is very different than dust. Ash will stay in the atmosphere way longer and it's so fine that it just floats around in the currents, eventually coming to rest somewhere on earth. But you cannot think of ash like dust, aerodynamic properties are so different in the way the air reacts. Dust has a rounder appearance, (i didnt say round), ash can be flat or other odds shapes, and ash can have lots of tiny holes making it even lighter.
Quoting twhcracker:
a friend is in england and her flight was canceled to come home to canada because of volcanic ash and visibility. ??
I had friends make it out of Dublin at 9AM Dublin time and their e-mail indicated they were the last plane out. Dublin airport closed shortly thereafter.
1227. Grothar
Quoting AussieStorm:

My thinking is on this ash plum is, it will encircle the north pole and not let in as much sun light/heat and keep the summer melt to a minimum.


According to a team of British and German scientists, the ash cloud should dissipate in a few days. It was a very small eruption and they do not anticipate much in the way of a health concern. At the moment I believe they are being cautious not to allow too much air traffic in the vicinity because of the elevated danger of flying into a large dust cloud. I may be wrong, but I will check with Mrs. Grothar later to see if I am. She always lets me know for sure.
Quoting Grothar:
Iceland volcano grounds flights across northern Europe
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Thousands of passengers headed to or from northern Europe are stranded this morning as ash clouds from a volcano eruption in Iceland affects aviation there. The BBC says "the huge ash cloud is drifting south, leaving airports closed and a number of passengers potentially stranded in the UK and overseas. Experts say the ash affects visibility and debris can get sucked into airplane engines, which could affect the safety of air travel."

The Associated Press reports "Britain's Civil Aviation Authority said non-emergency flights would be banned until at least 6 p.m. (1700 GMT, 1 p.m. ET). Irish authorities also closed their air space for eight hours."

With that, the shutdown of British airspace effectively suspends operations at London Heathrow, one of the world's busiest airports. AP says Heathrow, "Europe's business airport, handles upwards of 1,200 flights and 180,000 passengers per day. The closure also affected London's second- and third-largest airports, Gatwick and Stansted. It was not immediately clear when flights would resume."

AP adds that "with the major trans-Atlantic hub at Heathrow closed, dozens of flights to the United States were on hold, and cancelations spread across the continent to major hubs at Brussels,Amsterdam, Geneva and Paris, where flights heading north were canceled until midnight." The Independent of London reports "hundreds of flights across the UK were already cancelled and airports in Scotland closed indefinitely."

There has been 4000 flights canceled so far in northern Europe
Good day everyone :0). Link below for the Iceland Volcano Live Cam. At the moment, clouds obscure the area:
Link
Quoting msphar:
I am with you in hoping for less this summer rather than more, Tampa, but just trying to think realistically about that dust flow. The last thing I would want to see is a hot MDR. My baby seats near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico so the MDR is near and dear to my heart.

I'd cheer the Iceland dust as much as the shear but I don't think it will do much good after that first circumnavigation.


The MDR is already on pair with June of last year, and its April!
Copied from Cayman News Service
Icelandic volcanic ash alert grounds UK flights
Posted on Thu, 04/15/2010 - 08:00 in World News
(BBC): All flights in and out of the UK have been suspended as ash from a volcanic eruption in Iceland moves south. Safety body Eurocontrol said up to 4,000 flights across northern Europe would be cancelled on Thursday. The air traffic control service (Nats) said no flights would be allowed in or out of UK airspace until 1800BST amid fears of engine damage. The airspace restriction was the most significant in living memory, a spokesman said. Nats suggested that the restrictions were unlikely to be lifted after 1800, saying it was "very unlikely that the situation over England will improve in the foreseeable future".
Nino 1.2 predictions


Nino 3


Nino 3.4


Nino 4


All as of yesterday show Cold-neutral / La Nina into Peak hurricane season, continuing on to January 2011.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Copied from Cayman News Service
Icelandic volcanic ash alert grounds UK flights
Posted on Thu, 04/15/2010 - 08:00 in World News
(BBC): All flights in and out of the UK have been suspended as ash from a volcanic eruption in Iceland moves south. Safety body Eurocontrol said up to 4,000 flights across northern Europe would be cancelled on Thursday. The air traffic control service (Nats) said no flights would be allowed in or out of UK airspace until 1800BST amid fears of engine damage. The airspace restriction was the most significant in living memory, a spokesman said. Nats suggested that the restrictions were unlikely to be lifted after 1800, saying it was "very unlikely that the situation over England will improve in the foreseeable future".

Amazing what a pint sized ash cloud and a Polar Jet can due to N Europe. Hopefully conditions improve quickly!
NOAA’s New “Hurricane Eye in the Sky” and Key Weather Satellite Gets into Position


NOAA’s GOES-13 spacecraft today became the official GOES-EAST satellite, perched 22,300 miles above the equator in a prime location to spot potentially life-threatening weather affecting the eastern half of the nation, including tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.
1235. Grothar


This is an image of what the ash cloud must look like from the inside. Should be gone in a few days. At this time, the experts say it may not have that much effect on the weather.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU APR 15 2010



ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO AS THEY WERE AS RECENT AS MARCH. THIS IS TRUE EVEN IN THE TROPICS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

BIAS-CORRECTED FORECASTS FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) DYNAMICAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY WILL FALL BELOW +0.5 C DURING MJJ 2010. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST (AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE CFS AND THREE STATISTICAL SST FORECASTS) ALSO TERMINATES THE PRESENT EL NINO. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS UNCERTAIN. CFS SHOWS MILDLY COLD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NO CLEAR LA NINA BY THE -0.5 C CRITERION. CCA AND MRK STAY ON THE WARM SIDE NEAR +0.5. ONLY THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE GOES FOR A CLEAR LA NINA (10 OUT OF 12 MEMBERS DO SO) FROM LATE SUMMER ONWARD. SEVERAL OTHER MODELS RAN ELSEWHERE, SEE IRI PLUME, START TO HINT INCREASINGLY AT A LA NINA POSSIBILITY FOR NEXT WINTER. AT THIS TIME THE CPC CONSOLIDATED FORECAST IS NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.
Cool anomalies starting to appear off SA coast.
Quoting Grothar:


This is an image of what the ash cloud must look like from the inside. Should be gone in a few days. At this time, the experts say it may not have that much effect on the weather.


Yep, supposed to be high enough altitude to cause little worries. Nice, sunny, and a little cool. Ash cloud won't go this far for a few hours yet, though.

At least it's a bit more novel of an explanation for airport closure than strikes or such else.
i wonder how it will affect iceland. I have icelandic horses and i am familiar with the way these animals are kept in iceland etc. They are allowed to roam free in the unfenced countryside in natural herds under very very harsh conditions. I wonder if it will affect their limited forage (grass) and water supplies. ( melt could be filled with ash?) anyway. There are no import horses allowed there so if it kills off a lot of them it could really hurt the breed gene pool as a whole.
Did anyone here feel this?

Earthquake Details

Magnitude
3.2
Date-Time
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 13:22:38 UTC
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 08:22:38 AM at epicenter
Location
34.789°N, 96.388°W
Depth
10.3 km (6.4 miles) (poorly constrained)

Region
OKLAHOMA
Distances
10 km (6 miles) SSE (168°) from Allen, OK
10 km (6 miles) WSW (240°) from Gerty, OK
19 km (12 miles) SSW (194°) from Atwood, OK
26 km (16 miles) E (84°) from Ada, OK
130 km (81 miles) SE (126°) from Oklahoma City, OK
224 km (139 miles) N (9°) from Dallas, TX
NEW BLOG
1242. Grothar
Quoting twhcracker:
i wonder how it will affect iceland. I have icelandic horses and i am familiar with the way these animals are kept in iceland etc. They are allowed to roam free in the unfenced countryside in natural herds under very very harsh conditions. I wonder if it will affect their limited forage (grass) and water supplies. ( melt could be filled with ash?) anyway. There are no import horses allowed there so if it kills off a lot of them it could really hurt the breed gene pool as a whole.


Most of the cloud is moving away from Iceland and very little ash is expected to fall. The biggest concern in Iceland is the flash-flooding because of the melting of the glaciers caused by the eruption. Hard to tell but the horse in the picture does not appear to be an Iclandic. They are usually much smaller. With most of it under water, it is hard to tell.
Hey everyone!