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Record Atlantic SSTs continue in the hurricane Main Development Region

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:03 PM GMT on May 15, 2010

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest April on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C.


Figure 1. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for May 13, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

What is responsible for the high SSTs?
As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter. Negative AO/NAO conditions have been dominant much of this spring as well, resulting in further anomalous heating of the MDR waters. This heating is superimposed on the very warm global SSTs we've been seeing over the past few decades due to global warming. Global and Northern Hemisphere SSTs were the 2nd warmest on record this past December, January, and February, the warmest on record in March, and will likely be classified as the warmest or second warmest on record for April, since NASA just classified April as the warmest April on record for the globe. We are also in the warm phase of a decades-long natural oscillation in Atlantic ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This warm phase began in 1995, and has been partially responsible for the high levels of hurricane activity we've seen since 1995.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
The high April SST anomaly does not bode well for the coming hurricane season. The three past seasons with record warm April SST anomalies all had abnormally high numbers of intense hurricanes. Past hurricane seasons that had high March SST anomalies include 1969 (0.90°C anomaly), 2005 (1.19°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.97°C anomaly). These three years had 5, 7, and 5 intense hurricanes, respectively. Just two intense hurricanes occur in an average year. The total averaged activity for the three seasons was 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes (an average hurricane season has 10, 6, and 2.) Both 1958 and 2005 saw neutral El Niño conditions, while 1969 had a weak El Niño.

The SSTs are already as warm as we normally see in July between Africa and the Caribbean, and we have a very July-like tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend. However, wind shear is still seasonably high, and the tropical waves coming off of Africa are still too far south to have much of a chance of developing. The GFS model is indicating that shear will start to drop over the Caribbean the last week of May, so we may have to be on the watch for tropical storms forming in the Caribbean then.

For those of you interested in a more detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456. I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting P451:
Since we all BS about everything on here and all of us into weather are mostly into our gardening and what have you....



Here's a look at my garden.

Click for IMAGE of the whole yard, garden, etc.


(I linked instead of posted because it's big)


And, here's a video of the yard. Camera sucks so apologies about the distortion.



Very beautiful garden, I envy it. lol
1002. pottery
Hey P451, that looks good. And lots of edible green stuff too. Nice.
Quoting DestinJeff:
who is on xtremehurricanes live cam right now? is tornadodude web-casting?


I am still wondering how to get the live cam from where he is

Any help would be nice
Taco :o)
1004. pottery
Post 1000. Very nice. Wow!
Quoting P451:
Since we all BS about everything on here and all of us into weather are mostly into our gardening and what have you....



Here's a look at my garden.

Click for IMAGE of the whole yard, garden, etc.


(I linked instead of posted because it's big)


And, here's a video of the yard. Camera sucks so apologies about the distortion.



very nice.. I was surprised you didn't narrate the video.. thanks for sharing!
beautiful garden p451
Quoting DestinJeff:


Vivian Brown .... been there for ages


If you are into old school Weather Channel, hers's a cool link.


Link
Beautiful house and garden P451!
Quoting P451:
Since we all BS about everything on here and all of us into weather are mostly into our gardening and what have you....



Here's a look at my garden.

Click for IMAGE of the whole yard, garden, etc.


(I linked instead of posted because it's big)


And, here's a video of the yard. Camera sucks so apologies about the distortion.

Very beautiful.
1010. beell
Quoting Chucktown:


If you are into old school Weather Channel, hers's a cool link.


Link


If you're really bored, download the "Weather Channel Emulator". Used to have it running on a spare computer at work. Probably takes a couple hours to set it up and feed in the appropriate links. Add your own cities and icons and music.

Never could get the radar to work right.

Weatherstar 400 Emulator

Download Page
Tornadodude getting ready to intercept a cell on xtremehurricanes.com tornado chase webcam
The Sun seems to be slowly emerging from its extended solar minimum with five solar eruptions over a four-day period (May. 5 - 9, 2010). SOHO captured the action with its C2 coronagraph in which the sun is blocked out (by the circular occulting disk in the center of the image) to reveal the faint structures in the corona. The white circle represents the size of the Sun. These eruptions were not Earth-directed, and there is little evidence that effects from any of these blasts were felt here at Earth.

1013. Ossqss
1012, correct. We did have a G2 last week :)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/


If ya don't have the link -- this is a pretty cool new tool for us.

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/


1014. xcool






1015. Ossqss
Here is the Astronomy Picture of the Day or movie from May 10th :)

BTW, does anyone know how many Earths it would take to fill the hole in the arch?
Classic Gulf-Atlantic seabreeze merger triggering big storms to my west. Those wont reach me, however.

Haven't seen the blog this dead in a while, let's try to get it going.
Interesting wave over Venezuela.

1019. aquak9
we can see the lightning from here, tho, SSI.

would rather see the rain.

Evening folks. Too tired to post anything.
Stay safe out there. Goodnight!
1021. pottery
Had a few showers from that wave today, and heard one rumble of thunder off to my east. What is the forecast for the wind that is affecting it?

MODELS ARE MEANT TO BE USED AS GUIDANCE ONLY AND DONOT DEPICT FINAL OUTCOME TO ANY ONE EVENT
1024. xcool
Slow, ...
blog
Quoting xcool:
Slow, ...
blog


Nothing happening in the tropics for now...very quiet.
Quoting xcool:
Slow, ...
blog
Don't worry, once summer comes, pages will be full within 5 minutes
1027. xcool
yeahh.
nothing but ghosts and dreams
1029. xcool
lmao
Just posted a new blog. It is really in-depth of what the models are showing in the southwestern Caribbean. Feel free to comment. Enjoy!

Hurricane Season Blog #3: Models In Agreement Of Possible System Soon
Oh hey keeper!
1032. Ossqss
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing but ghosts and dreams


How about a training video in preparation? :)

1033. xcool
wow haha video
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just posted a new blog. It is really in-depth of what the models are showing in the southwestern Caribbean. Feel free to comment. Enjoy!

Hurricane Season Blog #3: Models In Agreement Of Possible System Soon


Just remember Judge Judy's Weather Book...Don't Pee On My Leg And Tell Me It's A Hurricane! :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Just remember Judge Judy's Weather Book...Don't Pee On My Leg And Tell Me It's A Hurricane! :)
LOL.
Goodnight everyone.
Things will be picking up soon Hurricane.
The Corps of Engineers reinforced the flood gates and levees in New Orleans to protect the canals against a surge during a Katrina-like storm which they call a Once-in-100-years event. They have this idea that Katrina or similar sized storm is a 100-year storm, or likely to happen only once per century.

I contend that history teaches otherwise, and that Katrina was a 50-year storm.

Hurricane Betsy made landfall on September 10th, 1965 at Grand Isle, Louisiana with a pressure of 948 mb, gusts of 160 miles per hour (mph), a forward speed of 22 mph and storm surge of 15.7 ft. New Orleans witnessed gusts of 135 mph and a 9.8 ft storm surge.

Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi coast on August 17th, 1969 as a Category 5, with a pressure was 901 millibars and winds estimated at 175 mph. The storm surge was officially measured at 24.6 feet inside a surviving structure, but experts expect that it surpassed 28 feet.

Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005.

Can Katrina really be a Once-in-100-year event if storms of similar strength occurred 36-years and 40-years earlier? The definition of 100-year storm is based on the history of the region based on past climatology. Why would we assume that, with rising global temperatures, intense storms would maintain the same frequency?
Hey guys, I just finished writing a blog on the 1855 Louisiana hurricane, which struck central Plaquemines Parish on September 16. This is the first in a series of blogs I will be doing pertaining to Louisiana's hurricane history from 1851 to present.

Feel free to take a look!
Quoting Ossqss:


How about a training video in preparation? :)

Ah, one of my favorites... lol
The local accumet said 2 models on the oil..one had it 3 miles from the gulf stream loop, the 2nd had it already in the loop. The later matches with reports from lastnight that is was headed SW in the gulf stream. He said Keys in a few days, end of next week & it's to Cocoa Beach.
Here is an excerpt from the Internet:

"Eyjafjallajokul (pronounced ay-yah-FYAH-lah-yer-kuhl) erupted in April for the first time in nearly two centuries. During its last eruption, starting in 1821, its emissions rumbled on for two years."

Not that hard to pronounce. Lets all say Eyjafjallajokul five times really fast. Kuhl !

Has anyone started a contest on when Katla will erupt?

1043. Motttt
Quoting Skyepony:
The local accumet said 2 models on the oil..one had it 3 miles from the gulf stream loop, the 2nd had it already in the loop. The later matches with reports from lastnight that is was headed SW in the gulf stream. He said Keys in a few days, end of next week & it's to Cocoa Beach.

realy sad sky
is that oil near the gulf stream the subsurface oil plume or what?
Quoting TexasGulf:
The Corps of Engineers reinforced the flood gates and levees in New Orleans to protect the canals against a surge during a Katrina-like storm which they call a Once-in-100-years event. They have this idea that Katrina or similar sized storm is a 100-year storm, or likely to happen only once per century.

I contend that history teaches otherwise, and that Katrina was a 50-year storm.

Hurricane Betsy made landfall on September 10th, 1965 at Grand Isle, Louisiana with a pressure of 948 mb, gusts of 160 miles per hour (mph), a forward speed of 22 mph and storm surge of 15.7 ft. New Orleans witnessed gusts of 135 mph and a 9.8 ft storm surge.

Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi coast on August 17th, 1969 as a Category 5, with a pressure was 901 millibars and winds estimated at 175 mph. The storm surge was officially measured at 24.6 feet inside a surviving structure, but experts expect that it surpassed 28 feet.

Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005.

Can Katrina really be a Once-in-100-year event if storms of similar strength occurred 36-years and 40-years earlier? The definition of 100-year storm is based on the history of the region based on past climatology. Why would we assume that, with rising global temperatures, intense storms would maintain the same frequency?


i do not believe katrina was a
once in 100 year storm
or a
once in 50 year storm

what i do believe is that the corps of eng stuffed the levees in st bernard with newspaper and just because they say they are reinforced doesn't mean it's accurate. we have levee systems all through out the usa that are in ill repair and another major event could happen anywhere. you can not always go by history as markers for future events, it just doesn't work that way.

so i decided to look at the story again after posting this and page can no longer be found

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl042408tpleveepaper.98095b74.html
1046. BDAwx
did you guys know that Bermuda was colonized as a direct result of a major hurricane - in July 1609.
1047. xcool
wow
My main concern with the terms 100-year storm is that the federal government is proceeding as if a Katrina like event won't likely happen again this century.

As a roughly 50-year event (which Katrina was in my opinion), there is a 1:50 chance each year for a similar storm to hit New Orleans. Between now and 2020, there is a 1/5 chance of it happening again. By 2030, there is a 2/5 chance of New Orleans getting hit by another Katrina sized storm.

My concern is that, by building the levees and locks to withstand a strong Cat-3 hurricane storm surge, they are asking for failure in the future. Each year is a 1:50 gamble that it won't happen... but if you lose, the levees get over topped and the city gets flooded to the rooftops again. That's almost the same odds as having a '0' turn up on the roulette wheel... or about the same odds as cutting a deck of cards and the Ace of Spades comes up.

Why stop at reinforcing the levees for a 100-year storm (by definition) that actually occurs every 50-years per prior history. If an actual 100-year storm comes along, it will dwarf Katrina.


Quoting TexasGulf:
My main concern with the terms 100-year storm is that the federal government is proceeding as if a Katrina like event won't likely happen again this century.

As a roughly 50-year event (which Katrina was in my opinion), there is a 1:50 chance each year for a similar storm to hit New Orleans. Between now and 2020, there is a 1/5 chance of it happening again. By 2030, there is a 2/5 chance of New Orleans getting hit by another Katrina sized storm.

My concern is that, by building the levees and locks to withstand a strong Cat-3 hurricane storm surge, they are asking for failure in the future. Each year is a 1:50 gamble that it won't happen... but if you lose, the levees get over topped and the city gets flooded to the rooftops again. That's almost the same odds as having a '0' turn up on the roulette wheel... or about the same odds as cutting a deck of cards and the Ace of Spades comes up.

Why stop at reinforcing the levees for a 100-year storm (by definition) that actually occurs every 50-years per prior history. If an actual 100-year storm comes along, it will dwarf Katrina.



They US Army Corp of Engineers need to shore up the levies around NOLA to withstand a CAT 4+ hurricane.

From chatting with Patrap and several other NOLA residents, we cannot afford to have another "Katrina type-catastrophe".

I believe that NOLA has the World's 4TH busiest port. We Americans demand the government "step up to the plate" and fix the NOLA levy system NOW!!!!
Quoting TexasGulf:
My main concern with the terms 100-year storm is that the federal government is proceeding as if a Katrina like event won't likely happen again this century.

As a roughly 50-year event (which Katrina was in my opinion), there is a 1:50 chance each year for a similar storm to hit New Orleans. Between now and 2020, there is a 1/5 chance of it happening again. By 2030, there is a 2/5 chance of New Orleans getting hit by another Katrina sized storm.

My concern is that, by building the levees and locks to withstand a strong Cat-3 hurricane storm surge, they are asking for failure in the future. Each year is a 1:50 gamble that it won't happen... but if you lose, the levees get over topped and the city gets flooded to the rooftops again. That's almost the same odds as having a '0' turn up on the roulette wheel... or about the same odds as cutting a deck of cards and the Ace of Spades comes up.

Why stop at reinforcing the levees for a 100-year storm (by definition) that actually occurs every 50-years per prior history. If an actual 100-year storm comes along, it will dwarf Katrina.




i agree. it's the silence scream.

Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Has anyone started a contest on when Katla will erupt?



That would be on the same level as having a contest as to when the Cubs will win the world series. ;>)
1052. Patrap
Inner Harbor Navigation Canal surge barrier work proceeding smoothly, corps says
By Masako Hirsch, The Times-Picayune
May 13, 2010, 8:13PM


Construction of the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal surge barrier is on track and should be completed by its June 2011 deadline, Army Corps of Engineers officials said during a tour of the work Thursday.

Construction began last May on the barrier, which is one way the corps plans on protecting some of the region's most vulnerable areas from surges created by so-called "100-year" storms, or hurricanes with a 1 percent chance of occurring each year. The barrier will block surge originating in the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Borgne from entering the Industrial Canal, which was blamed for some of the catastrophic levee failures in Hurricane Katrina.

With the start of hurricane season just 16 days away, corps officials said they are pleased with the progress.



View full sizeJohn McCusker/The Times-PicayuneMayor Mitch Landrieu, right, called the progress on the surge barrier 'a great first step,' but noted the possibility of dangerous storms still exists."We're much better off heading into this hurricane season than we have been before, and that includes last year," said Karen Durham-Aguilera, civilian director of the corps' Task Force Hope, which oversees much of the area's levee construction.

The barrier project consists of walls that will be 24 to 26 feet above sea level, and two navigation gates that will be placed across the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway on the New Orleans side of the barrier and at Bayou Bienvenue.

The corps is set to finish construction of the barrier's walls by July 4 and the floodgates by the start of next year's hurricane season.

According to Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh, commander of the corps' Mississippi Valley Division, the agency expects to complete work on improvements to the hurricane risk reduction system on both sides of the river to provide the congressionally mandated 100-year protection level with the $14.6 billion already appropriated for the work. After the projects are completed, they will be turned over to the state, which will assume their annual maintenance and operation costs.

Despite the size of the barrier, Walsh said it does not take away all the risk of storms like Katrina, which had 30-foot waves. Katrina was considered a 400-year event in studies of its effects conducted by corps scientists.

"All of the other requirements need to be looked at," including evacuation, zoning issues and insurance, to assure additional protection, Walsh said.

The corps also is still working on a study aimed at recommending to Congress additional improvements that would provide New Orleans and other Louisiana coastal communities protection from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. The Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Study, still awaiting approval in the office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army, recommends additional study before several combinations of higher levees and coastal restoration projects can be recommended to Congress for authorization and funding.

New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu called the progress on the surge barrier "a great first step," but noted the possibility of dangerous storms still exists.

"It reminds us once again in a sobering way, the continuing threat that people face in South Louisiana," Landrieu said.

Landrieu also emphasized the need for preparation and evacuation plans.

"Prepare yourself," Landrieu said. "Be aware that hurricane season is on us. We are still vulnerable."
Mottt~ It was. They showed what looked like underwater plumes in shallow blue clear water. It was on 6, not accu..

Looks like a research boat it going to check it out.
1054. Patrap
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Here is an excerpt from the Internet:

"Eyjafjallajokul (pronounced ay-yah-FYAH-lah-yer-kuhl) erupted in April for the first time in nearly two centuries. During its last eruption, starting in 1821, its emissions rumbled on for two years."

Not that hard to pronounce. Lets all say Eyjafjallajokul five times really fast. Kuhl !

Has anyone started a contest on when Katla will erupt?



From the "Eruptions Blog", a blogger posted a link, we need Grothar to translate, it's in Icelandic, stating "E" has already dumped more ash than in the 1821-23 eruption. Ans it's still going strong, no visual today, fog and clouds have covered the summit.

At 250 million m3 the Eyja ash/lava emission has already exceeded that of the 1821-23 eruption.

But it's still much less than Katla in 1918 (700 million m3).

RÚV newsclip: http://dagskra.ruv.is/sjonvarpid/4497994/2010/05/16/1/

Posted by: Anna, Reykjavík | May 16, 2010 4:47 PM
Quoting BDAwx:
did you guys know that Bermuda was colonized as a direct result of a major hurricane - in July 1609.


I didn't know that. Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
We Americans demand the government "step up to the plate" and fix the NOLA levy system NOW!!!!

i wouldn't hold your breath bord
Quoting WaterWitch11:
We Americans demand the government "step up to the plate" and fix the NOLA levy system NOW!!!!

i wouldn't hold your breath bord

I am not, but there is no need to endanger the lives of over 750,000 NOLA Metro residents.

On a positive note, you folks in CA haven't had any major tremors this weekend. That "character" who is forecasting a large quake is not very wise!!
1059. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:


i didn't realize they were doing this. thanks for posting.
1061. hydrus
Quoting tornadodude:
hey all,

hanging here at a coffee shop in Abilene, Texas, going to try to do some preliminary chasing today, just to get a feel for the area. Probably wont be able to do the webcam, as my trial ran out for my tethering program. As soon as I get back I'm investing in an air-card
I was listening to you and Oz today. Hope your chase is safe and successful.
1062. Patrap
We will have 100 year Cat 5protection.

We are building it everyday,..with Fed funding, but we could pay for it all if we got our share of the Billions in Oil Royalties that bypass the State.

All the info is available,,under COE "Task Force Guardian".
hi bord,
there was just one that caught my eye, it was a 3.9 in ventura county. i have been watching a while now and they don't get them that often. but a long time ago one of the channel islands cracked from an eq. i read it in a book, i can't seem to find it one the computer.
GISS put out the Apr numbers..April was easily hottest NH on record 132..1998 it was 81.

We've got a good shot at warmest year on record this year. With the thin ice that covered near average there thanks to the neg NAO & the heat, got to go with a record melt forecast for the year.
00Z GFS shows two low pressure systems forming in the caribbean... but this is still in the long range so they are likely ghosts.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
hi bord,
there was just one that caught my eye, it was a 3.9 in ventura county. i have been watching a while now and they don't get them that often. but a long time ago one of the channel islands cracked from an eq. i read it in a book, i can't seem to find it one the computer.

Hopefully the Earth stays quiet! Latest update on "E" from the UK/Iceland Met offices:

Volcanic ash update. — 0257 on Monday 17 May 2010

Latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is still between 23000 and 26000 ft (7 to 8 km), with extremes at 29500 feet (9 km). Following the spread of the plume southeastwards, there were numerous reports received during Sunday. These ranged from a milky sky in South Uist, smells of sulpher near Newcastle, visible ash clouds observed (from the both the ground and the air) in the skies above northern England, and at the end of Sunday of ash deposits in Waddington and Conningsby. Issued at 0252 on Mon 17 May 2010.

Quoting CaribBoy:
00Z GFS shows two low pressure systems forming in the caribbean... but this is still in the long range so they are likely ghosts.


I'm surprised nobody has yet mentioned the persistent forecast of a subtropical cyclone off the eastern seaboard in the next few days. The GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC have all been consistent in developing this.
1068. xcool
im wait on cmc and ngp
1069. Patrap
That is Kinda funny I thought as well..Lil blips deep in the sheared tropics catches a few untrained eyes, but that Whoppa of a 980 Low dosent ?

Sheesh
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the persistent forecast of a subtropical cyclone off the eastern seaboard in the next few days. The GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC have all been consistent in developing this.

i was wondering the same.
Yeah. The forecast isn't so unreasonable either, seeing as though there should be a "hole" in the jet stream, if you will, which will allow for a period of low to moderate vertical shear. By the time the low gets its act together though, it already near sub-26C SSTs, hence why I believe it will be subtropical, if it develops at all.

Also, most importantly, the system ultimately completely detaches from the cold front in which it originates.
1072. xcool
brb .
1073. Levi32
Check out the 12z ECMWF from this morning day 10. Closed 1010 isobar in the western Caribbean:

Quoting Levi32:
Check out the 12z ECMWF from this morning day 10. Closed 1010 isobar in the western Caribbean:



Too far out to mean much, IMO.
1075. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


Too far out to mean much, IMO.


It does mean something when the Euro shows something like that. The Euro is a very conservative model when it comes to Atlantic tropical development. It hasn't shown even a hit of anything the GFS has tried to dish up so far this year, including the eastern Pacific. With the Euro joining the GFS in concert forecasting possible trouble in 10 days, I pay attention. We will see if this continues in subsequent runs on the Euro. If the Euro locks on to something for several days in a row, it's wise to give it consideration. We shall see if such a thing transpires.
1076. Levi32
Besides, the long-range model bashing isn't relevant. What we should be looking at is the overall pattern, and the potential for mischief is there with the MJO coming into our area of the world near the end of the month. The models will be all over the place of course, but they give us hints as to what could happen, and we use them as a tool to asses possible scenarios. When you see something like that on a model you ask yourself if it makes sense. If it doesn't, you can probably dismiss it, but if it does, and it looks like it could happen, then investigate it.
GFS SHORT RANGE GFS LONG RANGE
1078. Levi32
Now this is not something you see every day.....a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea:

1079. xcool





at gfs and cmc
1080. Levi32
1081. xcool
two models .show developing
Quoting Levi32:
Besides, the long-range model bashing isn't relevant. What we should be looking at is the overall pattern, and the potential for mischief is there with the MJO coming into our area of the world near the end of the month. The models will be all over the place of course, but they give us hints as to what could happen, and we use them as a tool to asses possible scenarios. When you see something like that on a model you ask yourself if it makes sense. If it doesn't, you can probably dismiss it, but if it does, and it looks like it could happen, then investigate it.


Point taken.
Quoting Chicklit:

Evening folks. Too tired to post anything.
Stay safe out there. Goodnight!


ditto. JUst wanted to post this but it's 2am now. 2 big storms trying to form in the northern indian! I guess this is fairly normal for this time of year though. Gnight!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
192 Hours - May 24th



The ridge the ECMWF is showing over the northeast will keep things interesting as far as track for any prospective storm...


I don't think that'll happen since most other models show an Omega Block over the Plains and Rockies with deep troughs on either side. Concurrent with a Negative NAO.
1085. xcool
ngp need too hurry uppp
1086. Walshy
NWS in Blacksburg VA

Hydrology...
locallized heavy rain has occurred over parts of the area this
evening. Flooding and evacuations were reported in Greenbrier
County. Major flooding along a small stream (meadow creek) in
extreme northern Summers... 5.25 inches of rain measured in an
hours.
Streams and creeks also reported out of there banks in Ashe
County NC with 3-4 inches of rain there.

05/16/2010 0615 PM
4 miles NW of Sandstone, Summers County.
Dense fog, reported by public.
Report of 5.25 inches of rain in an hour. Whole trees
washed down the creek. Several homes with water damage.
Driveways and local roads closed.


05/16/2010 0610 PM
4 miles NW of Sandstone, Summers County.
Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.
Mud and rock slides reported along County Road 7 between
Sandstone and Meadow Creek WV. Meadow Creek out of its
banks and flowing across the Road.
1087. xcool





India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 17 2010
==================================

Convective clouds are seen over south bay of bengal, andaman sea, and parts of central bay of bengal

Convective clouds are also seen over south arabian sea

Chief Meteorological Forecast
==============================

The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify further
Assuming the official rate of 5000barrels per day, the DeepwaterHorizon spill has reached half-way toward matching that of the ExxonValdiz on 17Apr10 at 2:30amCentralStandardTime.

Go to the GreatCircleMapper, then copy&paste in
31n98w-13n98w, 31n80w-13n80w, 29n88w, 29n89w, 28.5n88.5w, 29.5n88.5w, 29.35n88.85w, 28.65n88.85w, 29.35n88.15w, 28.65n88.15w

The crude oil slick covers an area nearly equivalent to a circular*degree, 3740square-miles or 9680square-kilometres.

If the present rates of spillage and of spreading continue until the morning of 11June10, the spill will have reached the ExxonValdiz level, and the oil slick will cover an area*equivalent to that shown by the coordinates
31n98w-13n98w, 31n80w-13n80w, 29n87.6w, 29n89w, 28.3n88.3w, 29.7n88.3w, 28.5n87.8w, 28.5n88.8w, 29.5n87.8w, 29.5n88.8w
on the GreatCircleMap.

Somehow neither circle seems to be "tiny when compared to the size of the Gulf of Mexico" as claimed by BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer.

TropicalStorm Arlene made landfall nearby on 11June05.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_(2005)
"Two days prior to landfall, 36 oil platforms and 16 rigs were evacuated."

* Marked on the GreatCircleMaps by the respective last 8 coordinates posted above.
1090. barbamz
Good morning. There is a song on "Eiyafjallajökull" (eja - fjatla - jökütl), that may help to pronounce it:
http://www.myspace.com/elizanewman.
Hope the efforts to stop the spill will continue. Have a nice week!
Thank you very much for the coordinates and the link to that cool mapping website! I learn something new every day!
Quoting Levi32:
Now this is not something you see every day.....a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea:



It'll make for one helluva wave in about a week or so, huh? :)
1093. RTLSNK
Morning early birds, woke up when the little boomers came thru Macon, Ga awhile ago.
Looks like some other wake up calls are coming:
Morning all. Looks like the current "hot spot" of the day is going to be the NIndian, with two potential systems brewing one on either side of the Indian subcontinent.

I may not be around much today, but I'll be monitoring developments from afar...

Have a great one!
The next official hurricane season outlook from the government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is due on May 20.
1096. pottery
Good Morning.
Nice shower here early, 1/2" in about 20 mins. Cloudy and looming overhead.
But looking at the wave, it looks a little sick right now.
Looks like my little "near miss" Friday evening is the most popular video on The Weather Channel this morning. :)
1098. MahFL
The wave is as dead as a dead parrot......
Quoting MahFL:
The wave is as dead as a dead parrot......


Mr. Praline: I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

Owner: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

Mr. Praline: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

Owner: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.
1100. RTLSNK
Quoting CycloneOz:
Looks like my little "near miss" Friday evening is the most popular video on The Weather Channel this morning. :)


Saw that on TWC last night, found a new chase Vehicle for you and TornadoDude,
you may want to reconfigure the front end design however. :)
Quoting RTLSNK:


Saw that on TWC last night, found a new chase Vehicle for you and TornadoDude,
you may want to reconfigure the front end design however. :)


LOL!

This is great! Ossgss is my hurricane survival suit designer...and now you are our official chase vehicle designer.

I like this design...but semi's are too slow. How about something with a little more agility and less torque? :D
1102. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Nice shower here early, 1/2" in about 20 mins. Cloudy and looming overhead.
But looking at the wave, it looks a little sick right now.


Morning Pottery, glad to see you finally got some rain. I would hope you've covered your rain barrels this time. :)
1103. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:


Morning Pottery, glad to see you finally got some rain. I would hope you've covered your rain barrels this time. :)

heheheheheh, Yeah! Gotta keep the serpents out of there this time.
Hey. Maybe I can set up a little booth, renting goggles and snorkels and flippers and stuff to them. Make a buck on the side......
1104. RTLSNK
Quoting CycloneOz:


LOL!

This is great! Ossgss is my hurricane survival suit designer...and now you are our official chase vehicle designer.

I like this design...but semi's are too slow. How about something with a little more agility and less torque? :D


How about this one?
Not only does it look agile, it looks like it can also fly! :)
1105. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

heheheheheh, Yeah! Gotta keep the serpents out of there this time.
Hey. Maybe I can set up a little booth, renting goggles and snorkels and flippers and stuff to them. Make a buck on the side......


They don't have any pockets remember?
You could just BBQ the little jokers,
they taste just like chicken. :)
Morning all, Looking like some needed rain today in w c fl. Oz saw your clip on the wc, great piece of driving. jeff9641 looks like you had some interesting weather over near your house last evening.
1107. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:


They don't have any pockets remember?
You could just BBQ the little jokers,
they taste just like chicken. :)

No Pockets?? How do they carry their cell-phones???
1108. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

No Pockets?? How do they carry their cell-phones???


I should know better than to get you started first thing in the morning! I couldn't find the answer to your last question, but I know that they can be pretty sneaky. I better get out of here now before Admin wakes up, once the season starts, no more funny cartoons! :)
Good morning all!

I am currently in Amarillo, Texas right now, just had a decent storm come through about an hour ago.

I look to be in a pretty good location for today and especially tomorrow. On wednesday, I will be going back into Oklahoma. I look for the SPC to issue a moderate risk outlook for wednesday.

Anyway, we hopefully caught some great footage of a tornadic supercell on the south side of Oklahoma City yesterday. We were guided by CycloneOz, Hurricane Junky, and a few others so thanks!!

I haven't yet had time to review our video from the storm yesterday, but I know we got a wall cloud and probably the funnel cloud on video.

Btw, it is stinkin flat out here!!
Oops double post
Quoting TampaSpin:
Worry that Gulf oil spreading into major current


OH NO!

HYPE There all guessing. I don't think anyone knows what impact we will have at the moment. JMO.
Quoting severstorm:

HYPE There all guessing. I don't think anyone knows what impact we will have at the moment. JMO.



HYPE..........LOL.....whatever. I don't think anyone has hyped anything but, BP and our Government not creating HYPE!
Ouch the Asian Markets are getting hammered!

Asian Indexes
Index Country Change % Change Level

Australia ASX All Ordinaries Australia -142.30 -3.06%

Shanghai SE Composite Index China -136.70 -5.07%

Hang Seng Hong Kong -430.23 -2.14%

Mumbai Sensex India -159.04 -0.94%

Nikkei 225 Japan -226.75 -2.17%

Taiwan TSEC 50 Index Taiwan -173.41 -2.23%
1115. hydrus
Quoting tornadodude:
Good morning all!

I am currently in Amarillo, Texas right now, just had a decent storm come through about an hour ago.

I look to be in a pretty good location for today and especially tomorrow. On wednesday, I will be going back into Oklahoma. I look for the SPC to issue a moderate risk outlook for wednesday.

Anyway, we hopefully caught some great footage of a tornadic supercell on the south side of Oklahoma City yesterday. We were guided by CycloneOz, Hurricane Junky, and a few others so thanks!!

I haven't yet had time to review our video from the storm yesterday, but I know we got a wall cloud and probably the funnel cloud on video.

Btw, it is stinkin flat out here!!
Good luck out there in tornado alley. Looking forward to the footage.
1116. hydrus
Quoting TampaSpin:
Ouch the Asian Markets are getting hammered!

Asian Indexes
Index Country Change % Change Level

Australia ASX All Ordinaries Australia -142.30 -3.06%

Shanghai SE Composite Index China -136.70 -5.07%

Hang Seng Hong Kong -430.23 -2.14%

Mumbai Sensex India -159.04 -0.94%

Nikkei 225 Japan -226.75 -2.17%

Taiwan TSEC 50 Index Taiwan -173.41 -2.23%
I hope that is not an indication for the U.S. market.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Ouch the Asian Markets are getting hammered!

Asian Indexes
Index Country Change % Change Level

Australia ASX All Ordinaries Australia -142.30 -3.06%

Shanghai SE Composite Index China -136.70 -5.07%

Hang Seng Hong Kong -430.23 -2.14%

Mumbai Sensex India -159.04 -0.94%

Nikkei 225 Japan -226.75 -2.17%

Taiwan TSEC 50 Index Taiwan -173.41 -2.23%

What causing them to go nuts like that?
1118. Engine2
Quoting severstorm:

What causing them to go nuts like that?
My guess is they still have fear about the European market - specifically the fiscal crisis in Greece
Quoting Engine2:
My guess is they still have fear about the European market - specifically the fiscal crisis in Greece

Thanks
Quoting tornadodude:
Good morning all!

I am currently in Amarillo, Texas right now, just had a decent storm come through about an hour ago.

I look to be in a pretty good location for today and especially tomorrow. On wednesday, I will be going back into Oklahoma. I look for the SPC to issue a moderate risk outlook for wednesday.

Anyway, we hopefully caught some great footage of a tornadic supercell on the south side of Oklahoma City yesterday. We were guided by CycloneOz, Hurricane Junky, and a few others so thanks!!

I haven't yet had time to review our video from the storm yesterday, but I know we got a wall cloud and probably the funnel cloud on video.

Btw, it is stinkin flat out here!!


Our little communications systems worked pretty well. Those of you who could not listen to tornadodude's live broadcast missed out on some edge of the seat excitement.

I'm not sure, but I believe XtremeHurricanes.com is now the first severe storm website to have live broadcast a team near severe weather, with a spotter live on line, and audience participation in the chase.

You should have been there. The chat room was busy, with knowledgeable viewers who were actually contributing to the ground team's chase. I was amazed at how wonderfully all the technology worked.

When tornadodude gets a working web cam with cell phone connectivity, he should be able to provide you with some awesome moments online.

Yesterday, he proved himself as a budding meteorological star.

Stay tuned for his WU updates! If he goes live, you do not want to miss out again! :)
I'll be in Greece the end of August if its still there!
Quoting RTLSNK:


How about this one?
Not only does it look agile, it looks like it can also fly! :)


That's the one!

Can I please have the fully-loaded showroom model? :)
1123. P451
Good Morning.

In regards to post #1000 I appreciate all the feedback.


---

A lot of moisture out there today. Looks like I'm in for a soaker here in NJ in the coming days.


18 Hour WV Imagery Loop - ending 730AM ET.



Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Looking like some needed rain today in w c fl. Oz saw your clip on the wc, great piece of driving. jeff9641 looks like you had some interesting weather over near your house last evening.


Yes, I did infact. Saw .51" in 5 minutes with lots of lightning. It's been raining here off and on all morning so far as well.
Very beautiful garden indeed, wish i had that green thumb ALMOST everything i plant dies lol
All the computer models are developing a low near Bermuda and moving it toward the Florida's east coast by next week. Interesting!! I was thinking I was seeing things this morning on the models and had to look again!
Quoting severstorm:

What causing them to go nuts like that?


Sorry i stepped away. The drop of the Euro is partly the blame but the Asian Markets are dropping primairly on the increase of inflation as the Gov. will increase the lending rate. Inflation will also be the US next problem looming.
Also, anyone traveling to Eurp. now would be the time to go as the you can get about 1.24 Euro. for $1.00 US currency. Nice!
The US was considering buying into the Euro with Tax payer dollars. That would be a serious mistake as that would cause and Euro to raise and give the US dollar less power driving inflation higher into the US. Big misatake to do that IMO!

Enough about this. We might just have some action coming into the Tropics late this week!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Our little communications systems worked pretty well. Those of you who could not listen to tornadodude's live broadcast missed out on some edge of the seat excitement.

I'm not sure, but I believe XtremeHurricanes.com is now the first severe storm website to have live broadcast a team near severe weather, with a spotter live on line, and audience participation in the chase.

You should have been there. The chat room was busy, with knowledgeable viewers who were actually contributing to the ground team's chase. I was amazed at how wonderfully all the technology worked.

When tornadodude gets a working web cam with cell phone connectivity, he should be able to provide you with some awesome moments online.

Yesterday, he proved himself as a budding meteorological star.

Stay tuned for his WU updates! If he goes live, you do not want to miss out again! :)


Good Morning All,

No I hope not to miss it either. I sure was impressed with how well it went. OZ you had him right where he needed to be. I just hope there is something for me to chase when we get up there on the 23rd. I have moved our trip up by 1 day to get up there. Driving all day on the 22nd. Man I'm looking forward to it...

Taco :o)
Tampa, dangling a carrot! Be careful what you attract!
1130. Ossqss
Quoting Engine2:
My guess is they still have fear about the European market - specifically the fiscal crisis in Greece


Yup, and Spain and Portugal and Italy and a complete distrust of one another due to the huge government debt they cannot pay back, and a little bit of the China housing bubble, and France talking of breaking out on their own and significant devaluation of the Euro and flight to safety in Gold and US bonds also. It looks like a rough day in the USA.

OZ, still working on the Ozosphere :)

Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry i stepped away. The drop of the Euro is partly the blame but the Asian Markets are dropping primairly on the increase of inflation as the Gov. will increase the lending rate. Inflation will also be the US next problem looming.
Also, anyone traveling to Eurp. now would be the time to go as the you can get about 1.24 Euro. for $1.00 US currency. Nice!
The US was considering buying into the Euro with Tax payer dollars. That would be a serious mistake as that would cause and Euro to raise and give the US dollar less power driving inflation higher into the US. Big misatake to do that IMO!

Enough about this. We might just have some action coming into the Tropics late this week!


I had to take a double take to see if what I was seeing could be true this morning. To a have a tropical system develope near bermuda and then move towards the Florida east coast is RARE this time of year!
The CMC is model seems to be the most aggressive with this feature early next week nearing Florida.
Quoting Jeff9641:
All the computer models are developing a low near Bermuda and moving it toward the Florida's east coast by next week. Interesting!! I was thinking I was seeing things this morning on the models and had to look again!


I just looked at most models.....I don't see that! What models are you looking at.

Computer models
Quoting splash3392:
Tampa, dangling a carrot! Be careful what you attract!


Nope not dangling nothing..just stated a fact!
1135. IKE
I don't see much either except the GFS.

Here's the 00Z CMC. Nothing much east of Florida.
Quoting Jeff9641:
The CMC is model seems to be the most aggressive with this feature early next week nearing Florida.


Jeff what are you looking at.....I see nothing forming on the models.
1137. IKE
Here's the 00Z CMC @ 144 hours...

Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes, I did infact. Saw .51" in 5 minutes with lots of lightning. It's been raining here off and on all morning so far as well.

I thought you had some good storms. I saw one that had it rotating near you. I only had .006 yesterday lots of thunder not much rain.
Everyone's been drooling for a system to form.
I stated early yesterday that we might see a small system just off the North Yucatan as a Low might develop there....but i see nothing on the models.
Quoting Ossqss:


OZ, still working on the Ozosphere :)



ROFLMAO!!!!! :D What a riot! I love the fat body with the little legs look!!!!
1142. IKE
Quoting splash3392:
Everyone's been drooling for a system to form.


I don't see much on the 00Z ECMWF either.

You're probably correct.
Quoting taco2me61:


Good Morning All,

No I hope not to miss it either. I sure was impressed with how well it went. OZ you had him right where he needed to be. I just hope there is something for me to chase when we get up there on the 23rd. I have moved our trip up by 1 day to get up there. Driving all day on the 22nd. Man I'm looking forward to it...

Taco :o)


Yeah brother! We got you all hyped up yesterday, didn't we! You were ready to take off and go yourself! :)
Good Morning........Lot's of moisture out there in the tropical Atlantic but sheer still hostile out in the MDR......If the moisture around the ITCZ stays there as it lifts up, and, a low SAL forecast holds true, we may well have some monster storms headed towards the Greater Antilles (Eastern Caribbean) down the road in August. Also, the A-B high will shift around between now and August but starting to see some pretty solid ridging/bridging right now between Africa and the Eastern Seabord that would prevent curvature in the mid-Atlantic of any waves that reach storm status in the Central Atlantic on the way "over" to pay us a visit.........That positioning of the A-B high will make all the difference this season in terms of general tracks/impacts during the CV season........
Quoting CycloneOz:


ROFLMAO!!!!! :D What a riot! I love the fat body with the little legs look!!!!


Ya that is perfect for us 4ft 400lbs boys.......LOL
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah brother! We got you all hyped up yesterday, didn't we! You were ready to take off and go yourself! :)


You Know It!!!!
I wanted to go yesterday for sure.... But I know I have to work this week. But when Saturday gets here I'm "Gone".....
Even if I'm Gone Already in the "Head"....

Taco :o)
Quoting IKE:
Here's the 00Z CMC @ 144 hours...



Long range CMC model. I don't get what you guys aren't seeing clearly showing a 1004 milibar low approaching Florida's east coast next Wed or THurs.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
Quoting IKE:


I don't see much on the 00Z ECMWF either.

You're probably correct.


No drooling here!! Just fact from the models.
CycloneOz "...semi's are too slow. How about something with a little more agility and less torque? :D "

RTLSNK "How about this one? Not only does it look agile, it looks like it can also fly! :) "

In a major hurricane, the problem is getting a vehicle to stay parked where it was parked.
What's good in a Cat.3

Ain't so hot in a Cat.4

Perhaps something a bit heavier

But a Cat.5 will knock over a locomotive, so I wouldn't tether myself to something that light.

In case you are wondering... Yeah, I am trying to get you to reconsider your quest.
Oz if you don't have at least 1million pattens out on the suit. That would be a serious mistake if your wanting me to be your Manager.....ROFLMAO
Hey OZ I will have my laptop with me aswell as 2 video cameras and 2 other cameras so I can get as many pictures as I can....
My Laptop does have web cam with voice as well and will be a great test to see how it works...
I use a air card for my laptop so I should stay connected....

Taco :o)
Quoting IKE:
Here's the 00Z CMC @ 144 hours...



Maybe you should look a little more before calling me out. THat ridge over the NE US does steer a a developing low toward Florida next week from Bermuda.
they say duct tape can fix anything. It has strength, flexibility, elasticity. Just ask Myth Busters.
1155. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


Maybe you should look a little more before calling me out. THat ridge over the NE US does steer a a developing low toward Florida next week from Bermuda.


Calling you out? I'm just agreeing with splash3392.

I see a small low at 192 hours on the 00Z ECMWF east of the east coast, but at 240 hours it looks like it's weakening....Link
Quoting splash3392:
they say duct tape can fix anything. It has strength, flexibility, elasticity. Just ask Myth Busters.
duct tape is like the force it has a light side and a dark side and it can hold the universe together
1157. aquak9
Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle

cat 1- knocks over a six pack

cat 2- knocks over a case

cat 3- blows away a keg

cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer

cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer

Not taking storm surge into account, obviously...
Good one Keeper
Quoting Jeff9641:


Maybe you should look a little more before calling me out. THat ridge over the NE US does steer a a developing low toward Florida next week from Bermuda.


Jeff i don't think anyone called you out. Sorry!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff i don't think anyone called you out. Sorry!


OK then I'm sorry!! I think I need to get a cup of coffee this morning!
ok Everyone I'm out for a while I have to go get my tags for this year.... and then get oil changed before our trip to tornado ally....

I'll Check in a few hours from now....

Have a Great day

Taco :o)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Bro i need one too......NO creamer in mine....LOL
Good Morning Everyone. Well finally getting some much needed rain here in Grand Cayman, hopefully the sister Islands is getting some too, this is driest May and year for that matter that I can remember!
1165. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:
Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle

cat 1- knocks over a six pack

cat 2- knocks over a case

cat 3- blows away a keg

cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer

cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer

Not taking storm surge into account, obviously...
How did you find this out? Hurricane party?..:)
well what could be more obvious now... bp just wanted the oil, they never wanted to really stop the leak.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update;The Caribbean’s Strive for Renewable Energy


ONe heck of a Blog update. One of the best i have seen! GREAT JOB!
The GFS is now developing a SUB-Tropical storm off of Floridas East Coast, interesting.. but will it happen? Probably not, we'll see.. We've seen Andrea in 2007. The GFS also cotinues to show energy in the Carribean in a week or two, although it's not bullish like it was yesterday. It's gonna be an interesting 2 weeks indeed, the EURO even has a very weak low, now that's something I'd look at.
aquak9
"Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle
cat 1- knocks over a six pack
cat 2- knocks over a case
cat 3- blows away a keg
cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer
cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer
Not taking storm surge into account, obviously
..."

hydrus "How did you find this out? Hurricane party?..:) "

Compare the Saffir-Simpson Cat. speeds with the damage parameters on the enhancedFujitaScale

And in case CycloneOz missed the rollover risk...
Quoting tornadodude:
Good morning all!

I am currently in Amarillo, Texas right now, just had a decent storm come through about an hour ago.

I look to be in a pretty good location for today and especially tomorrow. On wednesday, I will be going back into Oklahoma. I look for the SPC to issue a moderate risk outlook for wednesday.

Anyway, we hopefully caught some great footage of a tornadic supercell on the south side of Oklahoma City yesterday. We were guided by CycloneOz, Hurricane Junky, and a few others so thanks!!

I haven't yet had time to review our video from the storm yesterday, but I know we got a wall cloud and probably the funnel cloud on video.

Btw, it is stinkin flat out here!!


No problem Matt. Glad you made it safely. Oh, don't worry we know all about flat here in South FL! Be safe and keep us posted...
Clearly a SUB-tropical system, look how much symmetric warm core it has, then look at the shallow area.. Notce it turn fully tropical in the end lol, course it's a dream storm.. Would be surprising if this does turn out to be true.
BTW, the storm starts out as a cold cored system. It takes a few days as the model shows for it to transition to warm core.
Link

Quoting hurricanejunky:


No problem Matt. Glad you made it safely. Oh, don't worry we know all about flat here in South FL! Be safe and keep us posted...


Haha yeah forgot about that ;)

I am headed to a starbucks now to get some coffee and internet, did jeff and tampa spin get their coffee yet?

Quoting hurricanejunky:


No problem Matt. Glad you made it safely. Oh, don't worry we know all about flat here in South FL! Be safe and keep us posted...


Haha yeah forgot about that ;)

I am headed to a starbucks now to get some coffee and internet, did jeff and tampa spin get their coffee yet?
aquak9
"Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle
cat 1- knocks over a six pack
cat 2- knocks over a case
cat 3- blows away a keg
cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer
cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer
Not taking storm surge into account, obviously..."


Everyone needs this for the Tropical Season....



Quoting TampaSpin:
aquak9
"Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle
cat 1- knocks over a six pack
cat 2- knocks over a case
cat 3- blows away a keg
cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer
cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer
Not taking storm surge into account, obviously..."


Everyone needs this for the Tropical Season....





AMEN to that!! :)
Quoting taco2me61:
Hey OZ I will have my laptop with me aswell as 2 video cameras and 2 other cameras so I can get as many pictures as I can....
My Laptop does have web cam with voice as well and will be a great test to see how it works...
I use a air card for my laptop so I should stay connected....

Taco :o)


Check your e-mail. XtremeHurricanes.com is an equal opportunity WU blogger website! :)
1177. hydrus
Quoting aspectre:
aquak9
"Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle
cat 1- knocks over a six pack
cat 2- knocks over a case
cat 3- blows away a keg
cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer
cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer
Not taking storm surge into account, obviously
..."

hydrus "How did you find this out? Hurricane party?..:) "

Compare the Saffir-Simpson Cat. speeds with the damage parameters on the enhancedFujitaScale

And in case CycloneOz missed the rollover risk...
Beer is so precious. I will use the proper equations to build shelters specifically for protecting this vital liquid. It is life itself...lol
Quoting aspectre:
CycloneOz "...In case you are wondering... Yeah, I am trying to get you to reconsider your quest.


I hear ya. Good luck with that. ;)
1180. Patrap
BP says tube taking out one-fifth of oil leaking from well blowout



by Jeffrey Collins and Jason Dearen / The Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 17, 2010 at 6:55 AM

Updated today at 7:36 AM


NEW ORLEANS -- BP said Monday it was siphoning more than one-fifth of the oil that has been spewing into the Gulf for almost a month, as worries escalated that the ooze may reach a major ocean current that could carry it through the Florida Keys and up the East Coast.

BP PLC chief operating officer Doug Suttles said Monday on NBC's "Today" that a mile-long tube was funneling a little more than 1,000 barrels -- 42,000 gallons -- of crude a day from a blown well into a tanker ship. The company and the U.S. Coast Guard have estimated about 5,000 barrels -- 210,000 gallons -- have been spewing out each day.

Engineers finally got the contraption working on Sunday after weeks of failed solutions -- however, millions of gallons of oil are already in the Gulf of Mexico.
From an AP story this morning:
...a computer model shows oil has already entered the loop current, while a second shows the oil is 3 miles from it -- still dangerously close. The models are based on weather, ocean current and spill data from the U.S. Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, among other sources

...The final choice to end the leak is a relief well, but it is more than two months from completion.

Top officials in President Barack Obama's administration cautioned that the tube "is not a solution."

"We will not rest until BP permanently seals the wellhead, the spill is cleaned up, and the communities and natural resources of the Gulf Coast are restored and made whole," Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar said in a joint statement.


Dr. Masters, I'm sure, will let us know the scoop about the loop current.

By the way, check out Hurricane456's comprehensive analysis on renewable energy options for the Caribbean in today's blog.\

Nice rain this morning in ECFL.
Have the best day possible everyone.
From bad to worse with the BP spill:

Deep sea oil plumes, dispersants endanger reefs
By JASON DEAREN and MATT SEDENSKY (AP) – 54 minutes ago

NEW ORLEANS — The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has already spewed plumes over ecologically sensitive reefs, part of a stalled marine sanctuary proposal that would restrict drilling in a large swath of the northern part of the vital waterway.

Marine scientists fear that two powerful Gulf currents will carry the oil to other reefs. The eastward flowing loop current could spread it about 450 miles to the Florida Keys, while the Louisiana coastal current could move the oil as far west as central Texas.

The depth of the gushing leaks and the use of more than 560,000 gallons of chemicals to disperse the oil, including unprecedented injections deep in the sea, have helped keep the crude beneath the sea surface. Marine scientists say diffusing and sinking the oil helps protect the surface species and the Gulf Coast shoreline but increases the chance of harming deep-sea reefs, which are seen as bellwethers for sea health.

"At first we had a lot of concern about surface animals like turtles, whales and dolphins," said Paul Montagna, a marine biologist at Texas A&M University Corpus Christi who studies Gulf reefs. "Now we're concerned about everything."

On Sunday, researchers said computer models show oil has already entered the loop current that could carry the toxic goo toward the Keys, the third-longest barrier reef in the world.

The oil is now over the western edge of a roughly 61-mile expanse of 300-to-500-foot-deep reef south of Louisiana known as the Pinnacles, about 25 miles north of where Transocean Ltd.'s Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20, killing 11 people and starting the spill that grows by the hour. BP PLC operated the rig.

The Pinnacles is one of nine coral banks and hard-bottom areas stretching from Texas to Florida that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tried in 2008 to get designated a marine sanctuary called Islands in the Stream.
This sanctuary would have restricted fishing and oil drilling around the identified reef "islands." But the plan was put on hold after vehement objections from Republican lawmakers, fishermen and the oil industry.

Scientists have found undersea plumes of oil at the spill as much as 10 miles long, which are an unprecedented danger to the deep sea environment, said Samantha Joye, a professor of marine sciences at the University of Georgia.

These plumes are being eaten by microbes thousands of feet deep, which removes oxygen from the water.

"Deepwater coral are abundant on the sea floor in this part of the Gulf, and they need oxygen," said Joye, who was involved in the plume discovery. "Without it, they can't survive."
1185. JRRP

niña??
1186. Bonedog
The NOAA report on forecast of slick has it in the loop current within 24hrs =(

Looking at the Response website maps its in the Loop =(

Basically after this weeks bad(not strong but unfavorable) winds the Gulf is totally screwed.

BTW the sippy straw they stuck in the pipe is a total joke. I honestly believe BP is trying to figure out how to make the well viable and a producer instead of capping it at this point. Everything we have seen them throw at the spill has been to save the oil not cap the well. I have seen on several industry blogs where industry folks have asked why no new riser pipe has been reinstalled and connected to another BOP. Apparently this is something they have done in the past when BOPs have failed mechanically.

Good morning gang!!!

Anything exciting happening yet?

We finally got some much needed rain here in SeTx after about 6 weeks of nothing!
If this keeps up much longer, we'll have to rename the Gulf of Mexico The Dead Gulf.

BP = Big Polluter of Biblical Proportion

I'll wager a bet that Jeff's next blog will be on the leakage of oil into the loop eddy and also the destruction of the floor of the GOM.

Islands in the Stream is a beautiful name isn't it?
Yesterday I discussed a storm forming on the coast of GA & Carolinas then rolling up the NE, over the next 3 days. Chances are looking better & better. GFS has just begun to notice. Shifted way west & strengthened it. CMC pulled it together more & shifted it slightly west (as I expected yesterday). Really nailing MA, RI..the ones sticking out into the water there. We still may see a little shift west. I'll go with a 45% chance of a significant event for the NE..65% chance for RI & the coastal areas hanging out there.

Beginning to think we have an outside chance of a EPAC storm forming this week.
BTW the sippy straw they stuck in the pipe is a total joke. I honestly believe BP is trying to figure out how to make the well viable and a producer instead of capping it at this point. Everything we have seen them throw at the spill has been to save the oil not cap the well. I have seen on several industry blogs where industry folks have asked why no new riser pipe has been reinstalled and connected to another BOP. Apparently this is something they have done in the past when BOPs have failed mechanically -- Bonedog

BP has zero credibility at this point.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Good morning gang!!!

Anything exciting happening yet?

We finally got some much needed rain here in SeTx after about 6 weeks of nothing!


Yeah man! I got to track a couple of those storms on Saturday when they moved through southwest Texas!
1193. Bonedog
Exactly chicklit. Its unfortunate really. The ecological damage from this catastrophe will be felt for many many years and the toxicity in the wildlife I feel wont be realized for a long time either.

Its something I never thought I would say but...

Pretty soon the coastal waters of NJ will be healthier than the GOM =(

1194. A4Guy
Anyone know when NOAA/NHC is going to release their early seasonal forecast?
1195. Patrap
Oil well...
Quoting A4Guy:
Anyone know when NOAA/NHC is going to release their early seasonal forecast?


May 20
there is an outbreak of botulism among livestock in TN post flood. that is sad.
1198. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
NASA: Easily the hottest April — and hottest Jan-April — in temperature record
Plus a new record 12-month global temperature, as predicted


Satellite says otherwise. Not even close, really. Apr 1998 was +0.76. Apr 2009 was +0.50.

Even more reason to completely discount the NASA surface station data set. Just not enough true coverage and too much interpolation. So satellite (completely objective and no comparison in terms of coverage), says over 33% lower temp for April 2010 vs. Apr 1998, but GISS says 25% higher than Apr 1998. Doesn't jibe. That's a huge swing. Both cannot be right.

Just saying. But, hey, folks can continue to go by subjective, low coverage sources. Sat only for me.

UAH

That front has turned the surface current more toward the Gulf stream..
From an earlier posting about N.O. levees:
"Construction of the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal surge barrier is on track and should be completed by its June 2011 deadline" "...which is one way the corps plans on protecting some of the region's most vulnerable areas from surges created by so-called "100-year" storms, or hurricanes with a 1 percent chance of occurring each year."

"Despite the size of the barrier, Walsh said it does not take away all the risk of storms like Katrina, which had 30-foot waves. Katrina was considered a 400-year event in studies of its effects conducted by corps scientists."

1. Since when is Katrina a 400-year event for the N.O. area? A Katrina sized storm happens to impact S.E. Louisiana once every 50-years.

2. If Katrina is a 400-year storm... and your levees are being designed for protection from a 100-year storm, then wouldn't another Katrina sized storm overtop the levees again and devestate N.O.?

3. If Katrina was a Once-Per-400-Year Storm, can they give us an example of a 100-year storm that the levees were designed for? (I would bet their 100-year storms actually occur every 25-years I.M.H.O.)

Quoting twhcracker:
there is an outbreak of botulism among livestock in TN post flood. that is sad.

our enterprising nation will harness it for BOTOX no worries
Quoting A4Guy:
Anyone know when NOAA/NHC is going to release their early seasonal forecast?



I think it's May 28th or around that date. They don't issue any pre-season forecast, only the actual June starting forecast. I am interested to see their numbers as the parameters to date are rather ominous.
1205. Patrap
Quoting TexasGulf:
From an earlier posting about N.O. levees:
"Construction of the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal surge barrier is on track and should be completed by its June 2011 deadline" "...which is one way the corps plans on protecting some of the region's most vulnerable areas from surges created by so-called "100-year" storms, or hurricanes with a 1 percent chance of occurring each year."

"Despite the size of the barrier, Walsh said it does not take away all the risk of storms like Katrina, which had 30-foot waves. Katrina was considered a 400-year event in studies of its effects conducted by corps scientists."

1. Since when is Katrina a 400-year event for the N.O. area? A Katrina sized storm happens to impact S.E. Louisiana once every 50-years.

2. If Katrina is a 400-year storm... and your levees are being designed for protection from a 100-year storm, then wouldn't another Katrina sized storm overtop the levees again and devestate N.O.?

3. If Katrina was a Once-Per-400-Year Storm, can they give us an example of a 100-year storm that the levees were designed for? (I would bet their 100-year storms actually occur every 25-years I.M.H.O.)



Their?



Fascinataing..but way off the tru mark easily.

a story on CNN had this comment from a man in Alabama.

"Every summer, thousands of fish rise to the surface of Mobile Bay. It's a rare phenomenon known as a jubilee, and locals are worried about it. One resident says the leaking oil well should be plugged with BP execs."

What a thought!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I think it's May 28th or around that date. They don't issue any pre-season forecast, only the actual June starting forecast. I am interested to see their numbers as the parameters to date are rather ominous.


This Thursday the 20th.
1208. Drakoen
Haven't seen this posted, the NOGAPS is forecasting for a tropical cyclone to form in the southern Caribbean:

Hostile sheer in the Caribbean..note the rising shear over the want to be blob..

Quoting Bonedog:
The NOAA report on forecast of slick has it in the loop current within 24hrs =(

Looking at the Response website maps its in the Loop =(

Basically after this weeks bad(not strong but unfavorable) winds the Gulf is totally screwed.

BTW the sippy straw they stuck in the pipe is a total joke. I honestly believe BP is trying to figure out how to make the well viable and a producer instead of capping it at this point. Everything we have seen them throw at the spill has been to save the oil not cap the well. I have seen on several industry blogs where industry folks have asked why no new riser pipe has been reinstalled and connected to another BOP. Apparently this is something they have done in the past when BOPs have failed mechanically.




Seen that on the news yesterday that it was getting really close. :-(

Key's & East Coast may have a rather crappy summer @ the beach, in addition to those already experiencing the slick. Almost a sure thing it reaches the beaches on the east coast with daily stiff winds toward the coast.
Good Morning everyone :O)! A snapshot from a few minutes ago of "Little E, the PO'd Volcano". This thing just keeps going and going!!
Quoting Chucktown:


This Thursday the 20th.


Thanks for the clarification, I knew it was around that date.
1213. Drakoen
In the same spot the GFS 06z shows:

Quoting TexasGulf:
From an earlier posting about N.O. levees:
"Construction of the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal surge barrier is on track and should be completed by its June 2011 deadline" "...which is one way the corps plans on protecting some of the region's most vulnerable areas from surges created by so-called "100-year" storms, or hurricanes with a 1 percent chance of occurring each year."

"Despite the size of the barrier, Walsh said it does not take away all the risk of storms like Katrina, which had 30-foot waves. Katrina was considered a 400-year event in studies of its effects conducted by corps scientists."

1. Since when is Katrina a 400-year event for the N.O. area? A Katrina sized storm happens to impact S.E. Louisiana once every 50-years.

2. If Katrina is a 400-year storm... and your levees are being designed for protection from a 100-year storm, then wouldn't another Katrina sized storm overtop the levees again and devestate N.O.?

3. If Katrina was a Once-Per-400-Year Storm, can they give us an example of a 100-year storm that the levees were designed for? (I would bet their 100-year storms actually occur every 25-years I.M.H.O.)



lol 400 yr storm. It was a cat 3 at landfall
400 yr storm would end NOLA, it wouldn't exist anymore once and for all.
Looks like we have a consensus on a Tropical Cyclone developing in the Caribbean.
1217. Patrap
CAt 3 at Landfall..pushing a CAt-5 surge,

The SSS isnt the tell all for a Storm..

Id stick to Catcrackers...
Looks like the Farmers Almanac has a chance to go 1 for 1 starting the season. They predict heavy rains for the SE around the , possibly a tropical cyclone.



May 2010

16th-19th. Clearing.
20th-23rd. Showers along Gulf Coast into Florida, then clearing.
24th-27th. Heavy rains. Possible tropical weather system.
28th-31st. Clearing for holiday weekend.
Volcanic ash update.

Latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is still between 23000 and 26000 ft (7 to 8 km), with extremes at 29500 feet (9 km). Following the spread of the plume southeastwards, there were numerous reports received during Sunday. These ranged from a milky sky in South Uist, smells of sulphur near Newcastle, visible ash clouds observed (from the both the ground and the air) in the skies above northern England, and at the end of Sunday of ash deposits in Waddington and Conningsby. Issued at 0252 on Mon 17 May 2010.



1220. JRRP
2010

2005

2004

Quoting Patrap:
CAt 3 at Landfall..pushing a CAt-5 surge,

The SSS isnt the tell all for a Storm..

Id stick to Catcrackers...


Experts made the SSS, thats what we go by
1222. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like we have a consensus on a Tropical Cyclone developing in the Caribbean.


It's nice to see development on the NOGAPS as it is one of the older more conservative models.
Quoting Drakoen:
In the same spot the GFS 06z shows:



ECMWF, weaker but it exists

1224. Patrap
New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize - 09-10-2005, 02:31 PM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman
http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive...cs_katrina.php
September 01, 2005 22 30 GMT -- The American political system was
founded in Philadelphia, but the American nation was built on the
vast farmlands that stretch from the Alleghenies to the Rockies.
That farmland produced the wealth that funded American
industrialization: It permitted the formation of a class of small
landholders who, amazingly, could produce more than they could
consume. They could sell their excess crops in the east and in
Europe and save that money, which eventually became the founding
capital of American industry.

But it was not the extraordinary land nor the farmers and ranchers
who alone set the process in motion. Rather, it was geography -- the
extraordinary system of rivers that flowed through the Midwest and
allowed them to ship their surplus to the rest of the world. All of
the rivers flowed into one -- the Mississippi -- and the Mississippi
flowed to the ports in and around one city: New Orleans. It was in
New Orleans that the barges from upstream were unloaded and their
cargos stored, sold and reloaded on ocean-going vessels. Until last
Sunday, New Orleans was, in many ways, the pivot of the American
economy.

For that reason, the Battle of New Orleans in January 1815 was a key
moment in American history. Even though the battle occurred after
the War of 1812 was over, had the British taken New Orleans, we
suspect they wouldn't have given it back. Without New Orleans, the
entire Louisiana Purchase would have been valueless to the United
States. Or, to state it more precisely, the British would control
the region because, at the end of the day, the value of the Purchase
was the land and the rivers - which all converged on the Mississippi
and the ultimate port of New Orleans. The hero of the battle was
Andrew Jackson, and when he became president, his obsession with
Texas had much to do with keeping the Mexicans away from New
Orleans.

During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored
graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets
could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it
be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the
answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to
traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The
industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn't come in, and
the agricultural wealth wouldn't flow out. Alternative routes really
weren't available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign
occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both
the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans
was the prize.

Last Sunday, nature took out New Orleans almost as surely as a
nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina's geopolitical effect was not, in
many ways, distinguishable from a mushroom cloud. The key exit from
North America was closed. The petrochemical industry, which has
become an added value to the region since Jackson's days, was at
risk. The navigability of the Mississippi south of New Orleans was a
question mark. New Orleans as a city and as a port complex had
ceased to exist, and it was not clear that it could recover.

The ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans, which run north and
south of the city, are as important today as at any point during the
history of the republic. On its own merit, the Port of South
Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and
the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons
a year, of which more than half are agricultural products -- corn,
soybeans and so on. A larger proportion of U.S. agriculture flows
out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 57 million tons, comes
in through the port -- including not only crude oil, but chemicals
and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on.

A simple way to think about the New Orleans port complex is that it
is where the bulk commodities of agriculture go out to the world and
the bulk commodities of industrialism come in. The commodity chain
of the global food industry starts here, as does that of American
industrialism. If these facilities are gone, more than the price of
goods shifts: The very physical structure of the global economy
would have to be reshaped. Consider the impact to the U.S. auto
industry if steel doesn't come up the river, or the effect on global
food supplies if U.S. corn and soybeans don't get to the markets.

The problem is that there are no good shipping alternatives. River
transport is cheap, and most of the commodities we are discussing
have low value-to-weight ratios. The U.S. transport system was built
on the assumption that these commodities would travel to and from
New Orleans by barge, where they would be loaded on ships or
offloaded. Apart from port capacity elsewhere in the United States,
there aren't enough trucks or rail cars to handle the long-distance
hauling of these enormous quantities -- assuming for the moment that
the economics could be managed, which they can't be.

The focus in the media has been on the oil industry in Louisiana and
Mississippi. This is not a trivial question, but in a certain sense,
it is dwarfed by the shipping issue. First, Louisiana is the source
of about 15 percent of U.S.-produced petroleum, much of it from the
Gulf. The local refineries are critical to American infrastructure.
Were all of these facilities to be lost, the effect on the price of
oil worldwide would be extraordinarily painful. If the river itself
became unnavigable or if the ports are no longer functioning,
however, the impact to the wider economy would be significantly more
severe. In a sense, there is more flexibility in oil than in the
physical transport of these other commodities.

There is clearly good news as information comes in. By all accounts,
the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which services supertankers in the
Gulf, is intact. Port Fourchon, which is the center of extraction
operations in the Gulf, has sustained damage but is recoverable. The
status of the oil platforms is unclear and it is not known what the
underwater systems look like, but on the surface, the damage -
though not trivial -- is manageable.

The news on the river is also far better than would have been
expected on Sunday. The river has not changed its course. No major
levees containing the river have burst. The Mississippi apparently
has not silted up to such an extent that massive dredging would be
required to render it navigable. Even the port facilities, although
apparently damaged in many places and destroyed in few, are still
there. The river, as transport corridor, has not been lost.

What has been lost is the city of New Orleans and many of the
residential suburban areas around it. The population has fled,
leaving behind a relatively small number of people in desperate
straits. Some are dead, others are dying, and the magnitude of the
situation dwarfs the resources required to ameliorate their
condition. But it is not the population that is trapped in New
Orleans that is of geopolitical significance: It is the population
that has left and has nowhere to return to.

The oil fields, pipelines and ports required a skilled workforce in
order to operate. That workforce requires homes. They require stores
to buy food and other supplies. Hospitals and doctors. Schools for
their children. In other words, in order to operate the facilities
critical to the United States, you need a workforce to do it -- and
that workforce is gone. Unlike in other disasters, that workforce
cannot return to the region because they have no place to live. New
Orleans is gone, and the metropolitan area surrounding New Orleans
is either gone or so badly damaged that it will not be inhabitable
for a long time.

It is possible to jury-rig around this problem for a short time. But
the fact is that those who have left the area have gone to live with
relatives and friends. Those who had the ability to leave also had
networks of relationships and resources to manage their exile. But
those resources are not infinite -- and as it becomes apparent that
these people will not be returning to New Orleans any time soon,
they will be enrolling their children in new schools, finding new
jobs, finding new accommodations. If they have any insurance money
coming, they will collect it. If they have none, then -- whatever
emotional connections they may have to their home -- their economic
connection to it has been severed. In a very short time, these
people will be making decisions that will start to reshape
population and workforce patterns in the region.

A city is a complex and ongoing process - one that requires physical
infrastructure to support the people who live in it and people to
operate that physical infrastructure. We don't simply mean power
plants or sewage treatment facilities, although they are critical.
Someone has to be able to sell a bottle of milk or a new shirt.
Someone has to be able to repair a car or do surgery. And the people
who do those things, along with the infrastructure that supports
them, are gone -- and they are not coming back anytime soon.

It is in this sense, then, that it seems almost as if a nuclear
weapon went off in New Orleans. The people mostly have fled rather
than died, but they are gone. Not all of the facilities are
destroyed, but most are. It appears to us that New Orleans and its
environs have passed the point of recoverability. The area can
recover, to be sure, but only with the commitment of massive
resources from outside -- and those resources would always be at
risk to another Katrina.

The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces.
It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United
States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and
business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right
now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities,
and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's
population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United
States.

Let's go back to the beginning. The United States historically has
depended on the Mississippi and its tributaries for transport.
Barges navigate the river. Ships go on the ocean. The barges must
offload to the ships and vice versa. There must be a facility to
empower this exchange. It is also the facility where goods are
stored in transit. Without this port, the river can't be used.
Protecting that port has been, from the time of the Louisiana
Purchase, a fundamental national security issue for the United
States.

Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities,
but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable.
That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the
absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi
enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United
States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the
utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the
entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but
none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.

It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one
would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are
located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-
going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in
the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem.
Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river
going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United
States needs a city right there.

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial
infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but
exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a
city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating.
The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be
opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to
endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the
city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the
way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New
Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its
safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if
it is in the worst imaginable place.


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1226. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:
Haven't seen this posted, the NOGAPS is forecasting for a tropical cyclone to form in the southern Caribbean:


yea
Link
1227. Patrap
Quoting RitaEvac:


Experts made the SSS, thats what we go by


We..?

LOL



You best get back to sweeping under the Reformer.
1228. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


ECMWF, weaker but it exists



Yea. At least we can expect a broad area of low pressure to form in the Caribbean. I'd like to see something more on the ECMWF but with other models coming in it is a step in the direction favoring development.
Public Pat
1230. help4u
Great post seastep!
1231. Drakoen
Still concerned about the upper level winds for development; it looks like a tight gradient between the upper level high over the southern Caribbean and the upper level trough to the north which will either make or break the system.
Quoting CycloneUK:
Volcanic ash update.

Latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is still between 23000 and 26000 ft (7 to 8 km), with extremes at 29500 feet (9 km). Following the spread of the plume southeastwards, there were numerous reports received during Sunday. These ranged from a milky sky in South Uist, smells of sulphur near Newcastle, visible ash clouds observed (from the both the ground and the air) in the skies above northern England, and at the end of Sunday of ash deposits in Waddington and Conningsby. Issued at 0252 on Mon 17 May 2010.




Good old "E", the lil' volcano that could!!!
1233. Patrap
Vort in da haus..alert.,less the "NO".

Great idiocy thinks alike ..especially to my EAST.

LOL

Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. At least we can expect a broad area of low pressure to form in the Caribbean. I'd like to see something more on the ECMWF but with other models coming in it is a step in the direction favoring development.


Agree, I'm being conservative on this one though and going as far as a broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean. As time goes by and models change then confidence can shift up or down. But from what we are seeing with the models, development is not impossible.
Quoting TexasGulf:
From an earlier posting about N.O. levees:
"Construction of the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal surge barrier is on track and should be completed by its June 2011 deadline" "...which is one way the corps plans on protecting some of the region's most vulnerable areas from surges created by so-called "100-year" storms, or hurricanes with a 1 percent chance of occurring each year."

"Despite the size of the barrier, Walsh said it does not take away all the risk of storms like Katrina, which had 30-foot waves. Katrina was considered a 400-year event in studies of its effects conducted by corps scientists."

1. Since when is Katrina a 400-year event for the N.O. area? A Katrina sized storm happens to impact S.E. Louisiana once every 50-years.

2. If Katrina is a 400-year storm... and your levees are being designed for protection from a 100-year storm, then wouldn't another Katrina sized storm overtop the levees again and devestate N.O.?

3. If Katrina was a Once-Per-400-Year Storm, can they give us an example of a 100-year storm that the levees were designed for? (I would bet their 100-year storms actually occur every 25-years I.M.H.O.)



This isnt going to popular but; Katrina did not really devastate N.O., N.O. was flooded and that was result of the levees breaking and not direclty from the Hurricane. The loss of life was horrible however had people heeded evacuation procedures than there may have been less loss of life.

dev·as·tate (dv-stt)
tr.v. dev·as·tat·ed, dev·as·tat·ing, dev·as·tates
1. To lay waste; destroy.

flood
Pronunciation: \ˈfləd\
1 a : a rising and overflowing of a body of water especially onto normally dry land


Andrew devestated South Dade
Katrina flooded N.O.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like we have a consensus on a Tropical Cyclone developing in the Caribbean.


Would not quite call that consensus...Nogaps-horrible model along with the trigger happy GFS. I just don't see anything significant down there anytime soon those westerlies are still kicking. If anything this appears to be frontal nothing tropical. Hope they'll get those convective issues on the GFS solved with the june upgrade.
1237. Patrap
I think the Good Dr. MAsters and anyone who was here from PAsscagoula to Houma would easily disagree with any assertions that K missed NOLA.

9 Hours in the western eyewall was a real joy.

And the weeks after while you were watching CNN from yer Lazy Boy must been real hard as well.

Relocate NOLA one day?
1239. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


Agree, I'm being conservative on this one though and going as far as a broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean. As time goes by and models change then confidence can shift up or down. But from what we are seeing with the models, development is not impossible.


I'm being conservative as well; i'm still watching the MJO models to see if they come into our basin more.
1240. Ossqss
No matter your stance, an interesting read :)

The Hartwell Paper
I was in western eyewall in Ike
Quoting Patrap:
CAt 3 at Landfall..pushing a CAt-5 surge,

The SSS isnt the tell all for a Storm..

Id stick to Catcrackers...

That is right!! Both Katrina & Rita made landfall as CAT 3 storms, pushing a CAT 5 strom surge.

Ike, a strong CAT 2 pushed an early 10' storm surge, starting at around 6 AM CDT on 9-12-10, basically cutting off all escape routes from Galveston. a full 18 hrs before landfall.

At 2:30AM CDT 9-13-08, as Ike roared ashore with 110 MPH winds at the surface, 130MPH winds were about 400' above the surface, per Doppler radar, and a CAT 4 surge roared ashore from near the Bolivar peninsula all the way to Bridge City, TX.
1243. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


Would not quite call that consensus...Nogaps-horrible model along with the trigger happy GFS. I just don't see anything significant down there anytime soon those westerlies are still kicking. If anything this appears to be frontal nothing tropical. Hope they'll get those convective issues on the GFS solved with the june upgrade.


frontal? based on what?
1244. help4u
Agree doabarrellroll.mississippi was destroyed.
1245. Patrap
Quoting Bordonaro:

That is right!! Both Katrina & Rita made landfall as CAT 3 storms, pushing a CAT 5 strom surge.

Ike, a strong CAT 2 pushed an early 10' storm surge, starting at around 6 am CDT on 9-12-10, basically cutting off all escape routes from Galveston. a full 18 hrs before landfall. At 2:30AM CDT 9-13-08, as Ike roared ashore with 100 MPH winds at the surface, 130MPH winds were about 400' above the surface, per Doppler radar, and a CAT 4 surge roared ashore from near the Bolivar peninsula all the way to Bridge City, TX.


Ike's surge was 17 feet max..

Katrina's was 30' at Waveland,

Quoting Drakoen:


frontal? based on what?


I would like to know the same thing, lol.
Fools are ones who live on the beach knowing what surge will do and ones who live below sea level in a bowl
Where is and what models does everyone think is the best Shear forecast sites and models. Just courious.....I know the models are not very accurate after 36-48 hours.
so...The levees breaking was not a result of Katrina? guess that was just a coincidence...
1252. help4u
great video oz!
news sites seem to be pushing the oil-in-loop-current story today based on computer models indicating it is there(or in one case, within 3 miles). Shouldn't this be something actual measurements can be taken of, rather than hypothesis?
1255. Patrap
Well sport..not many Ports above sea Level Globally..

And MAnhattan and Miami are well..just awaiting their turn.

Shoot,,Fla builds trailer parks and called them Houses at the beach..

Ever seen what Andrew did to those things?

I did.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Where is and what models does everyone think is the best Shear forecast sites and models. Just courious.....I know the models are not very accurate after 36-48 hours.


the gfs, imo
NOLA had a flood
1258. help4u
Lol ritaevac
Quoting help4u:
Agree doabarrellroll.mississippi was destroyed.

right, Mississippi was devestated. Biloxi was a mess.
1261. Drakoen
Quoting TampaSpin:
Where is and what models does everyone think is the best Shear forecast sites and models. Just courious.....I know the models are not very accurate after 36-48 hours.


GFS and ECMWF
1262. Patrap
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
Latest Information


May 17, 2010
Identifying oil in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida
May 17, 2010
Identifying oil in Louisiana
May 17, 2010
Unified Area Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.
May 17, 2010
Current Operations and Ongoing Response
May 17, 2010
PHOTO RELEASE: Bird cleaning at FT JACKSON, La.
May 17, 2010
DHR: Vessels of Opportunity Program
May 17, 2010
Situation Status Map - May 17, 2010


Just stating the facts folks. FYI i aint buying a 2nd home on the beach either. It's not nice and it will be gone in a big storm. Common sense, I aint wasting my money and time
Quoting RitaEvac:
Relocate NOLA one day?

Good morning, thought of you as 5" of rain fell over Houston/Galveston over the weekend. And you are all still 2-3 " below normal for the year!!

They probably will never mover NOLA, although they should slowly move portions of the city to higher ground, away from the MS River delta area. Considering half of NOLA is below sea level and they're at a high risk of a major hurricane in any given season.

I understand the NOLA residents love their city, like Patrap, I respect that. Blame it all on the folks who busted up that log-jam on one of the area rivers in the 1860's. That started this mess, and it will not finish until:
A) The Army Corp of Engineers "engineer" a way to tame the MS River, which is not likely.

or

B) Mother Nature wins and NOLA is reclaimed by natural forces.
Quoting smarterthanyou:
so...The levees breaking was not a result of Katrina? guess that was just a coincidence...


They sure were, which flooded NOLA, it did not DEVESTATE NOLA. I am not saying Katrina did not "hit" NOLA but realistically it did not DEVESTATE NOLA. It is symantics I know, I just have seen real devestation and NOLA was not it.
Quoting Drakoen:


GFS and ECMWF


Drak what site do you use.....the Navy was pretty good.
1267. help4u
new orleans was destroyed because billions of dollars that were suppose to be spent on leevees were taken by the politicans.Refrigerators full of cash etc.
1268. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Well sport..not many Ports above sea Level Globally..

And MAnhattan and Miami are well..just awaiting their turn.

Shoot,,Fla builds trailer parks and called them Houses at the beach..

Ever seen what Andrew did to those things?

I did.


I was there and that was DEVESTATION
1270. Drakoen
Quoting TampaSpin:


Drak what site do you use.....the Navy was pretty good.


Link
Link
man.. ten steps turn and fire....
Quoting Bordonaro:

Good morning, thought of you as 5" of rain fell over Houston/Galveston over the weekend. And you are all still 2-3 " below normal for the year!!

They probably will never mover NOLA, although they should slowly move portions of the city to higher ground, away from the MS River delta area. Considering half of NOLA is below sea level and they're at a high risk of a major hurricane in any given season.

I understand the NOLA residents love their city, like Patrap, I respect that. Blame it all on the folks who busted up that log-jam on one of the area rivers in the 1860's. That started this mess, and it will not finish until:
A) The Army Corp of Engineers "engineer" a way to tame the MS River, which is not likely.

or

B) Mother Nature wins and NOLA is reclaimed by natural forces.


Hey man!

I received 1.90" total outta the 2 days. But just 10 miles to my east received some 5". Ground sucked it up too. yards are greener and we really needed that. Hope more comes this week as forecasted
If the Oil has not gotten into the Loop the Coral Reefs in the Keys will be ruined.....man i hope not......Anyone wanna buy a nice fishing boat or can i ask for some bailout money....HEHEHEHE
Quoting indianrivguy:
man.. ten steps turn and fire....


Ya really...bro you got that right...OUCH
Quoting Drakoen:


GFS and ECMWF


I just found out today that I have only two degrees of separation between me and one of the two guys who developed the euro model.

I got to hear the history behind it this morning. Pretty fascinating stuff!

cool, huh? :)
Quoting indianrivguy:
man.. ten steps turn and fire....

nicely played
1277. Patrap
WUnderul decison,,staying for a CAt-5 on the Beach.



Seems we now have gotton to the root of things.

Disaster jealousy 101.

A fine Florida trait expressed daily here.

Im off to savor the Shrimps,..

Enjoy the new entry..it will be out shortly.

Toodles..



."Calamity knows NO borders,only mens minds and Map's do"..
Quoting Patrap:
WUnderul decison,,staying for a CAt-5 on the Beach.



Seems we now have gotton to the root of things.

Disaster jealousy 101.

A fine Florida trait expressed daily here.

Im off to savor the Shrimps,..

Enjoy the new entry..it will be out shortly.

Toodles..


Pat i normally agree with you however I find this insulting. I do not envy ANYONE as I have been in one of if not the worst Hurricane ever. I am from Florida and the idea of another Andrew freaks me out. The majority of hurricanes hit Florida so why would anyone else here be envious of any disaster. The only NOLA thing I envy is thier Super Bowl win last year
WE just got back yesterday from Key West and visiting the Fort Jefferson.
We may have some photos of an historical past if the oil gets in the loop.
bay of bengal got a flag up


WTIO21 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.//
NNNN

Quoting CycloneOz:


I just found out today that I have only two degrees of separation between me and one of the two guys who developed the euro model.

I got to hear the history behind it this morning. Pretty fascinating stuff!

cool, huh? :)

Hey Oz, her ya' go, if you're up to another chase, actually the TX Panhandle is pretty busy right now:


However later today

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171516Z - 171615Z

TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE S PLAINS OF W TX HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF
70-80 MPH RECENTLY JUST EAST OF KLUB. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTN.
VWP FROM LUBBOCK SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AHEAD OF THE STORM CLUSTER...STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
WW.

..RACY.. 05/17/2010
bordanaro, you think SE TX will see a MCS blob this evening into tonight?
The first quake i've seen beneath Katla.




Quoting Bordonaro:

Hey Oz, her ya' go, if you're up to another chase, actually the TX Panhandle is pretty busy right now


tornadodude is in position.

Stayed tuned to this blog for any updates from him. We may be going live again at XtremeHurricanes.com today.

The last I heard from him, he was working with his technology....at a Starbucks (yum.)
Quoting CycloneOz:


tornadodude is in position.

Stayed tuned to this blog for any updates from him. We may be going live again at XtremeHurricanes.com today.

Oz, have you or T Dude intercepted a live tornado yet?
#1283: There have actually been a handful of earthquakes under Katla over the past few weeks.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hey Oz, her ya' go, if you're up to another chase, actually the TX Panhandle is pretty busy right now:


However later today

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171516Z - 171615Z

TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE S PLAINS OF W TX HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF
70-80 MPH RECENTLY JUST EAST OF KLUB. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTN.
VWP FROM LUBBOCK SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AHEAD OF THE STORM CLUSTER...STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
WW.

..RACY.. 05/17/2010

I was actually just talking to tornadodude and he is chasing in the area for the next few days. Looks like he's going to get some action!
Frontal low in the Carribean?? I'm sorry but that was a lame excuse. A broad low at best, tropical, but sheared.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
bay of bengal got a flag up



WTIO21 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.//
NNNN


The Bay of Bengal will be very BUSY this year, as the SST are off the charts in that area, plus the available energy in the Bay of bengal is also very high. The MJO moved through that area sparking several very healthy looking waves.
Quoting CycloneUK:
The first quake i've seen beneath Katla.






Might be ready to wake up as it usually does. We might be seeing the beginning of the giant that is to come.
Quoting Drakoen:


frontal? based on what?


Gfs shows it somewhat on the tail of the storm rolling up the coast of the Northeast in about 3 days.. GFS has been having a hard time with this developing Noreaster.. Shear is dropping a little in the area the gfs & nogaps hint at, so something is trying there. I think we will see the soon to be developing storm in the GA/Carolina's coastline area be strong enough to pull in & eat that bit of energy making it that much a more event for the NE..
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 86.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.05.2010 12.5N 86.5E WEAK
12UTC 19.05.2010 13.2N 84.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.05.2010 15.1N 84.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.05.2010 16.7N 85.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.05.2010 18.6N 86.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.05.2010 20.2N 88.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2010 21.6N 90.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.05.2010 22.1N 92.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.05.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170455

1293. Levi32
Good morning.

New SST anomaly map today shows the Pacific continuing to cool very rapidly, with already a La Ninish look appearing in the Nino 3.4 region.

Caribbean SSTs have cooled somewhat over the last week due to a burst of stronger than normal easterly trade winds, thanks to strong high pressure off the SE US tightening the pressure gradient over the Caribbean.



Quoting reedzone:
Frontal low in the Carribean?? I'm sorry but that was a lame excuse. A broad low at best, tropical, but sheared.


Lame? Watching 200+hr model forecast and tw's of africa in may is amusing. Projected upper winds by the gfs don't look to friendly.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Oz, have you or T Dude intercepted a live tornado yet?


I have not. I'm not sure about him. He may have with his father when he was younger...not sure, though.

I did intercept one by accident, however.

During Hurricane Ivan, I was standing on my Nana's front porch watching the storm rage. (Nana passed away last February, that's her in the video.)

The oak trees in her front yard were being bent over well by Ivan...when suddenly, they went straight up. I heard a "whoosh" sound and saw a white, glowing vapor wrap around them.

Instantly, there was a thunderous "SNAP" sound and then the whole house went "BOOM" and shook.

I wadded up like a little bunny with a wire up the wazoo and ran back inside.

"Honey, what was that?" asked Nana...

I ran into her dining room and saw that a pine tree next to her house had crashed into the roof and penetrated the structure inside.

"Don't go into your dining room, Nana," I warned her...basically to save her from freaking out on me.

The next morning, you can see in the video that the oak trees were snapped well, but the giant "snap" sound I heard was from the pine tree that was now blocking the side road.

The tornado laid waste to the neighborhood across the street where my Aunt RoseMarie lives and where she rode out the storm.

At the very end of the video, you can see where a pine tree was twisted up by the tornado.

As a side, Ivan de-pants-ed me in the middle of Bayou Blvd. in a 150-170 mph gust.

What a storm!!!!
Quoting hurricane23:


Lame? Watching 200+hr model forecast and tw's of africa in may is amusing. Projected upper winds by the gfs don't look to friendly.


upper winds is one thing...but the area of low pressure we are referring to in the SW Caribbean is non-frontal.
1297. NEwxguy
Quoting Skyepony:


Gfs shows it somewhat on the tail of the storm rolling up the coast of the Northeast in about 3 days.. GFS has been having a hard time with this developing Noreaster.. Shear is dropping a little in the area the gfs & nogaps hint at, so something is trying there. I think we will see the soon to be developing storm in the GA/Carolina's coastline area be strong enough to pull in & eat that bit of energy making it that much a more event for the NE..


skye,none of the local mets are playing this storm up much except that it will be raining Tuesday night into Wednesday.
We are not off to a good start today. Let's all start over......Good Morning everyone as i have 15minutes left in my time zone to say that!
Link below for the "E" followers. The web-cam has cleared up and the ash plume is visible and quite high I may add:
Link
...'27, '47, '65, '69, '98, '04, '05... I'd say NewOrleans gets more than it's fair share of 400year storms.
Quoting TampaSpin:
We are not off to a good start today. Let's all start over......Good Morning everyone as i have 15minutes left in my time zone to say that!

Good morning Tampa, it's a beautiful, sunny, humid, late spring day in Arlington, TX.

It's about 80F, light E winds at 5-10MPH, RH about 65%. Prime conditions for our area of instability in the TX Panhandle to move SE and wreak havoc, with strong 70-80MPH straight-line winds in NW TX!
Quoting hurricane23:


Lame? Watching 200+hr model forecast and tw's of africa in may is amusing. Projected upper winds by the gfs don't look to friendly.


Looking at the NOGAPS, GFS, EURO.. Hey, I'm not crying out development as some are here. Just saying a broad tropical, sheared low pressue system looks likely. I don't understand why weather scholars have to be soo stuck up. Don't turn out like scottsvb please. He almost caused me not want to be a meteorologist.


day 3 severe oak in the zone again
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link below for the "E" followers. The web-cam has cleared up and the ash plume is visible and quite high I may add:
Link

Morning all. Miss E looks upset.
Wow...
Quoting Weather456:


upper winds is one thing...but the area of low pressure we are referring to in the SW Caribbean is non-frontal.


Hi Weather456, thats all I've been saying, nothing big yet unless the shear decreases.
When injured by the same force all react differently. There are those who will cry out, I am dying and wait for aid. While others, with silent tears, will access the damage and do the aid themselves.
No one owns the corner market on disasters. All disasters are horrible no matter what form they come in. To say one is less or more than another is in itself the true form of idiocy.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link below for the "E" followers. The web-cam has cleared up and the ash plume is visible and quite high I may add:
Link


That is a dang large amount of Ash pumping out now.......Redoubt didn't erupt that large i don't believe.......Is this the largest blast thus far?
Anybody here a Linux user and interested in trying the 3D radar link on Wunderground? I looked into it and they don't support Linux AFAIK. They do support the Mac so they can't be that far from supporting Linux. You might want to let the website know.
1310. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 86.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.05.2010 12.5N 86.5E WEAK
12UTC 19.05.2010 13.2N 84.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.05.2010 15.1N 84.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.05.2010 16.7N 85.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.05.2010 18.6N 86.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.05.2010 20.2N 88.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2010 21.6N 90.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.05.2010 22.1N 92.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.05.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170455


i did not recognize you
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fools are ones who live on the beach knowing what surge will do and ones who live below sea level in a bowl


yeah but its not ever gonna change. I already hear people saying if the oil comes it might be a good opportunity to get some beach front at a decent price.,
Quoting NEwxguy:


skye,none of the local mets are playing this storm up much except that it will be raining Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Most the models had it out to sea yesterday..gfs had it far away from the NE. Trend has been more land affected & stronger. Looking at the different parts pulling together, I've liked the center going up the coast or even leaning toward a little more land all along. If it sucks in the energy east of FL, it should be memorable for someone. I'm only at 45% we'll see storm reports & an event of sorts. No surprise the local news isn't hyping more than rain. It's a few days out yet..
12z 96 hours out.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...


Yes, wow.

With ENSO first, SSTs is the 2nd largest modulator of season activity.

It is likely 16 named storms maybe the lower end.

I suspect noaa will be conservative but will not ignore those SSTs.
Dr Masters has a new blog.
1251. smarterthanyou "so...The levees breaking was not a result of Katrina?"

Try political chicanery at the ArmyCorps of Engineers. The contractor who built the section which collapsed told them in written&archived complaints that the soil hadn't been properly compacted, and was threatened with a breach-of-contract lawsuit if he failed to proceed with the work. Then his company went bankrupt exceeding the building requirements set in the terms of his contract.
Katrina itself didn't even come close to overtopping the levee at that section.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fools are ones who live on the beach knowing what surge will do and ones who live below sea level in a bowl


Did you somehow miss the massive wall of text that pat posted? NOLA is there because it needs to be. Can more be done to lessen the risk of major storms hitting it? Absolutely. Look at the Netherlands - this is a case of an entire country nearly at as much at risk as a single city, and yet they persevere, through a system of massive seawalls and IMO, the best water control features in the world. The one thing they don't have is ~20 miles of wetlands (depeleted, yes, but not gone) protecting them as well. If they can do it, we can to; it would not be impossible to ring the entire city of New Orleans with a 30 foot earthen levee, topped by concrete - and the Brits are considering a new Thames Barrier, nearly 10 miles across, to protect London. There is talk about the mighty Mississippi - but even that grand river can be controlled and rerouted if the neccessity is needed.

Civil engineering is not about what we CAN do, as we can build just about anything with concrete and steel; it's about how much money we can throw at the problem. Eventually, there will be a point where the survival of the city depends purely on human infrastructure, and even though that will cost a huge amount of money, well, as I said, NOLA is there because it needs to be.

My mother is from New Orleans - and though I've never been, seeing her tears at the devastation (yes, devastation) caused by Katrina converted me to her way of thought. It isn't just the port, or the french quarter, or downtown - it is a city that time forget, a place that holds true the ideals of a past time, and a place whose future rests squarely on the shoulders of technology and the willpower of those who will always remain there.
Quoting reedzone:


Looking at the NOGAPS, GFS, EURO.. Hey, I'm not crying out development as some are here. Just saying a broad tropical, sheared low pressue system looks likely. I don't understand why weather scholars have to be soo stuck up. Don't turn out like scottsvb please. He almost caused me not want to be a meteorologist.


May 22nd is the date I predicted that we'd see our first named storm.

I'm on the clock now.
1319. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
LOL...agreeing to idiocy is a pack trait.

And fools will follow one another off a cliff enmasse..easily.


You hit the nail on the head with that one. LOL.