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Record Alaskan Warmth and Rains Trigger Huge Avalanche That Isolates Valdez

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:06 PM GMT on January 27, 2014

If you're wondering where California's missing precipitation has been going, look northwards to the south and southeast coasts of Alaska. The remarkably persistent ridge of high pressure that has blocked rain from falling in California during January has shunted all the rain-bearing low pressure systems northward, bringing exceptionally warm and wet weather to coastal Alaska. Heavy rains, snows, and warm temperatures helped trigger a‪ series of huge avalanches that began on Friday, which blocked a 52-mile long section of the ‬Richardson Highway, the only road into Valdez, Alaska (population 4,000), located about 120 miles east of Anchorage. The avalanches, called some of the largest avalanches ever observed in the region, blocked the Lowe River in Keystone Canyon, creating a large backup of water behind the snow and ice dam. The water level is slowly dropping, but a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for the region in case the avalanche dam suddenly releases. The highway is expected to be cleared no earlier than February 2, according to the city of Valdez website. Extra marine ferries will be running during the blockage to provide supplies to Valdez.


Figure 1. ‪The ‬Richardson Highway, the only road into Valdez, Alaska, lies blocked by a massive avalanche in this January 25, 2014 photo from the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities.

Record warmth and precipitation in Alaska
As of January 26, 13.83" of precipitation had fallen in Valdez during the month of January. This is more than 8" above average for this point in the month, and close to the all-time record for January precipitation of 15.18", set in 2001 (records go back to 1972.) With more rain on the way Monday and Tuesday, this record could easily fall. Numerous locations in Southeast Alaska have beaten their rainiest January day on record marks.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has much more detail on the record Alaska January warmth in his latest post, Record Warmth in Alaska Contrasts Cold Wave in Eastern U.S. A few highlights:

- Temperatures of up to 40° above normal occurred across the interior and West Coast of Alaska on Sunday. Bolio Lake Range Complex in Fort Greely, Alaska, located about 100 miles southeast of Fairbanks, hit 60°. This is only 2° short of the all-time state January heat record of 62° set at Petersburg in 1981.

- At 10pm local time Sunday in Homer, Alaska, the temperature was 54°. This was warmer than any location in the contiguous U.S., except for Southern Florida and Southern California. The 55° high in Homer on Sunday broke their all-time monthly record by 4°.

- All-time January heat records have been set in 2014 in Nome, Denali Park, Palmer, Homer, Alyseka, Seward, and Talkeetna.


Video 1. ‪Valdez Alaska: Massive Avalanche and ice dam in Keystone Canyon‬. This clip shows a flyover of the avalanche in Keystone Canyon blocking the Lowe River, 1/26/2014. Video courtesy of Vertical Solutions.

Jeff Masters
Crystal 'Nails'
Crystal 'Nails'
Itty bitty frozen tacks... a coating of fragile frosty shards on everything this morning, giving the glaze of ice a bit of crunchy texture.
Thawing Arctic
Thawing Arctic
Smashed all-time high temperature records today, 42 F (6C). Another night of freezing drizzle, our world is glazed in ice.
Heatwave
Heatwave
OK, may we please have our winter back now?

Winter Weather Heat Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. nash36:
It's starting to look like the energy is going to get here faster than previously anticipated.

This may make my decision a little harder.


Split the difference. Go home at lunch.
low 40s just north of Corpus Christi over 10 degrees colder down there, and mid 40s west side of Houston with a 10 degree difference with in town of Houston. Makes you wonder if weather experimentation isn't going on with the weather, lol
Quoting 494. GeorgiaStormz:
18z backs out al, but more qpf atl and south


don't tell me that! lol
Quoting 501. BaltimoreBrian:


Split the difference. Go home at lunch.


I may just stay here. I really wish my company would pull their collective heads out of their rear ends and suspend operations. They preach safety as the #1 priority. This flies in the face of that edict.

Quoting 504. nash36:


I may just stay here. I really wish my company would pull their collective heads out of their rear ends and suspend operations. They preach safety as the #1 priority. This flies in the face of that edict.
Reminds me of Walmart, where we're still expected to report to work even amidst tropical storm conditions.
Quoting 500. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Now indicating snow for Long Island and even very close to NYC.

Hi Caleb! How is the forecast looking for your neck of the woods?
Quoting 492. KoritheMan:

My forecast has always been for about 2 inches in the BR metro area,  with probably somewhat higher amounts in southwest Mississippi. You guys closer to the Gulf Coast should see more freezing rain/sleet.


I think i will c sum snow as well.. Temperatures will decide it tho.. like i said anything can happen.. and we r talking about models here arent always right but give it there best shot.. sometimes they can hint or even get something right every once awhile.. but usually they say 1 to 3 inches.. sometimes i c it go either way.. Its a wait and c but yes the models have said there was a chance of this happening.. But sometimes its overmax or underdone.. so we will c! like i said some snow is better then none.. But im not to close to water where i am at.. So its up in the air..
Most of the precipitation in Austin is evaporating before hitting the ground. The dew point and humidity here are very low.
The cold air advection in east Texas is ok but not that great.

Quoting 506. nigel20:

Hi Caleb! How is the forecast looking for your neck of the woods?
Right now 42 degrees (F) with cold rain.

Lo 42°
RealFeel® 34°
Precipitation 77%
Night

NESW
NNW 10 mph
Gusts: 14 mph
Chilly with rain
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorms: 4%
Precipitation: 0.46 in
Rain: 0.46 in
Snow: 0 in
Ice: 0 in
Hours of Precipitation: 8.5 hrs
Hours of Rain: 8.5 hrs

Quoting 507. FLPandhandleJG:


I think i will c sum snow as well.. Temperatures will decide it tho.. like i said anything can happen.. and we r talking about models here arent always right but give it there best shot.. sometimes they can hint or even get something right every once awhile.. but usually they say 1 to 3 inches.. sometimes i c it go either way.. Its a wait and c but yes the models have said there was a chance of this happening.. But sometimes its overmax or underdone.. so we will c! like i said some snow is better then none.. But im not to close to water where i am at.. So its up in the air..
I think one factor is whether the boundary layer cools enough to eliminate that warm inversion I mentioned.
512. txjac
Quoting 508. galvestonhurricane:
Most of the precipitation in Austin is evaporating before hitting the ground. The dew point and humidity here are very low.


That's part of the reason that I am thinking that it will be okay ...no freezing like last Friday ...even though its predicted to be worse than last Friday ...very confused here

I can work from where ever ...so I will continue to check and base my decision in the morning on that
Quoting 505. KoritheMan:

Reminds me of Walmart, where we're still expected to report to work even amidst tropical storm conditions.


Didn't know tropical storms brought ice and snow to Louisiana.
3 hour temperature fall is much greater in the eastern South.

so the gfs wont budge at 0z...who 2 beleive?



516. txjac
And to everyone that provided links for me ...thank you, all are bookmarked and will be researched

Quoting 513. Astrometeor:


Didn't know tropical storms brought ice and snow to Louisiana.
You know what I meant. I never said the situation was completely analogous. But it's analogous enough.
Forecast for Ocala. Could see whatever falls, turn to ice, even though it's not showing much accumulation, still this is FL. we are talking about, snow tires is foreign down here. :P


Lo 31°
RealFeel® 28°
Precipitation 67%
Night

NESW
N 7 mph
Gusts: 11 mph
Occasional evening rain and drizzle; otherwise, cloudy and colder
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorms: 3%
Precipitation: 0.12 in
Rain: 0.12 in
Snow: 0 in
Ice: 0 in
Hours of Precipitation: 2 hrs
Hours of Rain: 2 hrs
Quoting 511. KoritheMan:

I think one factor is whether the boundary layer cools enough to eliminate that warm inversion I mentioned.


I hear ya.. we will find out soon!
Quoting 505. KoritheMan:

Reminds me of Walmart, where we're still expected to report to work even amidst tropical storm conditions.


Again, it's stupidity on parade. Yeah, let's leave the option open for folks to come to work. We have to meet production schedules. What good does a production schedule do, if a hundred of your workforce are out for two months after doing a Hari Kari into a tree trying to get to work?

Just. Plain. Dumb.
Awww I need to change that.

Current pressure



3 hour pressure change

Quoting 466. KoritheMan:

We already have the cold. It's now a question of moisture.
the moisture is beginning In Texas.
Quoting 510. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Right now 42 degrees (F) with cold rain.

Lo 42°
RealFeel® 34°
Precipitation 77%
Night

NESW
NNW 10 mph
Gusts: 14 mph
Chilly with rain
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorms: 4%
Precipitation: 0.46 in
Rain: 0.46 in
Snow: 0 in
Ice: 0 in
Hours of Precipitation: 8.5 hrs
Hours of Rain: 8.5 hrs


A Bit chilly?

Norman Manley airport in Kingston

Conditions at

2014.01.28 0300 UTC

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly clear
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 69 F (21 C)
Relative Humidity 73%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1033 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

NCZ096-099-105>110-SCZ032-033-039-053>056-281145-
/O.CON.KILM.WS.W.0001.140128T1000Z-140129T2300Z/
BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-FLORENCE-
MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...
SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...WILMINGTON...CAROLINA BEACH...
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...BOLIVIA...SHALLOTTE...
OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...SOUTHPORT...
FLORENCE...MARION...KINGSTREE...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...
MURRELLS INLET
1033 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...ENDING AS SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...THE HIGHEST FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS...AROUND HALF
AN INCH...SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF WILMINGTON
INCLUDING THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA. LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET...PERHAPS MORE THAN HALF AN INCH...MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON
TOP OF THE ICE.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW COULD REACH 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S...FALLING TO THE LOW 20S
TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS ROADS
BECOME SNOW OR ICE COVERED. BRIDGES WILL BE ICY AND EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS. THERE MAY BE LENGTHY POWER INTERRUPTIONS DUE TO SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION ON POWER LINES...AND AS WINDS GUST UP TO 30
MPH DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE MAY
ALSO BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS OR TOPPLE WHOLE TREES. ICE STORMS ARE
VERY RARE FOR COASTAL NORTH OR SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE AN HISTORIC EVENT UNFOLDING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...
SNOW...AND SLEET WILL IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS. THERE MAY BE NO ELECTRICITY FOR A CONSIDERABLE
TIME...EVEN AFTER THE STORM HAS ENDED...SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

$$
Quoting 511. KoritheMan:

I think one factor is whether the boundary layer cools enough to eliminate that warm inversion I mentioned.
Remember how warm it was in the Southeast today, I think Jedkins said it got all the way up to 72 degrees in Tally. You might be right about the warm inversion which would support more sleet than snow.
527. txjac
Quoting 521. nash36:


Again, it's stupidity on parade. Yeah, let's leave the option open for folks to come to work. We have to meet production schedules. What good does a production schedule do, if a hundred of your workforce are out for two months after doing a Hari Kari into a tree trying to get to work?

Just. Plain. Dumb.


That's one area, among others, that I am proud of my company ...employee safety is number one ...whether at work, on the way to work, or at home.

If it warrants, offices will be closed. They were last Friday
Raleigh, NC....6 hours ago it was 67 degrees on my back deck (in the shade)...currently 36.

Can anyone post the updated snowfall totals from the gfs? still hoping for a west or nw shift in the Low
Quoting 476. txjac:
I'm sitting here at 52F right now ...it's supposed to get down to 21F by tomorrow?


I noticed that at some other stations too. It's 56 at 11:00 pm and its supposed to be 35 in the morning. that must be a strong and quick push of cold air.
Seems like South Carolina has been immune to weather as of recent.


That immunity may be ending.
Quoting 524. nigel20:


A Bit chilly?

Norman Manley airport in Kingston

Conditions at

2014.01.28 0300 UTC

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly clear
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 69 F (21 C)
Relative Humidity 73%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
That was for Wed. right now we are at 61 degrees. Hey you guys are warmer than Guyana. Guyana is down to 72 degrees and I can tell you from being there away from Georgetown and in the interior can get downright cold, especially if you live near the riverside.

Quoting 526. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Remember how warm it was in the Southeast today, I think Jedkins said it got all the way up to 72 degrees in Tally. You might be right about the warm inversion which would support more sleet than snow.
Yeah, what's new? Always something to stop me from getting what I want.

Oh well, at least I can count on the hurricanes during the summer. Not nearly as hit and miss as this is. :P
Quoting 517. KoritheMan:

You know what I meant. I never said the situation was completely analogous. But it's analogous enough.


Oh yeah, I know what you mean. You mean like TS Karen from last year. Nice, sunny skies.
Quoting 499. nigel20:
Good evening guys!


Hey, Nigel, how ya been?

Quoting 531. wxgeek723:
Seems like South Carolina has been immune to weather as of recent.


That immunity may be ending.
I'm pretty sure Gaston might have been their last one, but I'm not positive.
Quoting 527. txjac:


That's one area, among others, that I am proud of my company ...employee safety is number one ...whether at work, on the way to work, or at home.

If it warrants, offices will be closed. They were last Friday


My company (which shall not be named) is very large and all they care about is the proverbial "bean." Families, people and safety are an afterthought.
Quoting 528. MoosetacheCanes:
Raleigh, NC....6 hours ago it was 67 degrees on my back deck (in the shade)...currently 36.

Can anyone post the updated snowfall totals from the gfs? still hoping for a west or nw shift in the Low


I guess that is my answer. 31F drop there in 6 hours. That cold air means business, from the FL Panhandle north.

Quoting 535. Astrometeor:


Oh yeah, I know what you mean. You mean like TS Karen from last year. Nice, sunny skies.
Eh... it wasn't all sunny. We had a brief squall with embedded 20 mph breezes before I reported to work that same day. Come on.
Wow... I'm in love with the 0z GFS
OK, good Day Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Don't Play With the ICE ..
543. txjac
Quoting 538. nash36:


My company (which shall not be named) is very large and all they care about is the proverbial "bean." Families, people and safety are an afterthought.


Sorry to hear that. If you have to be out and about please be safe ...be a defensive driver ...always on the lookout of that others are doing
Quoting 534. KoritheMan:

Yeah, what's new? Always something to stop me from getting what I want.

Oh well, at least I can count on the hurricanes during the summer. Not nearly as hit and miss as this is. :P
Even those have become extinct lately.
Quoting 531. wxgeek723:
Seems like South Carolina has been immune to weather as of recent.


That immunity may be ending.


We have been.

Severe wx breaks down just west of I-95 and disappears. We had a few inches of snow back in Feb. of 2010. I moved here from Tampa in the summer of 2009. Never, that I can remember, has the Charleston area had an ice event like what is being forecast.
Quoting 525. TropicalAnalystwx13:
URGENT THIS APPEARS
TO BE AN HISTORIC EVENT UNFOLDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...
SNOW...AND SLEET WILL IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS. THERE MAY BE NO ELECTRICITY FOR A CONSIDERABLE
TIME...EVEN AFTER THE STORM HAS ENDED...SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

$$
seems nature will bow the trees before your eyes to likes that you have never seen before
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I guess that is my answer. 31F drop there in 6 hours. That cold air means business, from the FL Panhandle north.


Yeah....wind was completely dead about 6, then about 2 hours ago it was blowing like 20 mph......got cold quick.

Quoting 538. nash36:


My company (which shall not be named) is very large and all they care about is the proverbial "bean." Families, people and safety are an afterthought.
That seems true for most companies, in my experience(s). Good thing I never believed what my employer spoon feeds me.
It would have been nice to see what the FIM had to say. Link
Quoting 533. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That was for Wed. right now we are at 61 degrees. Hey you guys are warmer than Guyana. Guyana is down to 72 degrees and I can tell you from being there away from Georgetown and in the interior can get downright cold, especially if you live near the riverside.

Kingston is on a plain, so it relatively flat. It seldom gets cool in Kingston. The interior is different though, low temps can dip below 50F.
I am scheduled to be at work at 8 tomorrow and maybe released early..just curious to see who else is going to show up besides me!
Quoting 550. nigel20:

Kingston is on a plain, so it relatively flat. It seldom gets cool in Kingston. The interior is different though, low temps can dip below 50F.
Has it ever snowed on the peaks of the mountains in Jamaica?
Quoting 536. PedleyCA:


Hey, Nigel, how ya been?

Hi pedley! I have been good! How about you?
Quoting 541. VAbeachhurricanes:
Wow... I'm in love with the 0z GFS
•Ice from freezing rain accumulates on branches, power lines and buildings. If you must go outside when a significant amount of ice has accumulated, pay attention to branches or wires that could break due to the weight of the ice and fall on you.
•Never approach power lines. A hanging power line could be charged (live) and you could be electrocuted. Stay back at least 10 meters (33 feet) from wires or anything in contact with them.
•When freezing rain is forecast, avoid driving if possible. Even a small amount of freezing rain can make roads extremely slippery. Wait several hours after freezing rain ends so that road maintenance crews have enough time to spread sand or salt on icy roads.
•Rapid onsets of freezing rain combined with strong winds increase the chances for hypothermia. If you live on a farm, move livestock promptly to shelter where feed is available. Forage is often temporarily inaccessible during and immediately after ice storms.
Quoting 552. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Has it ever snowed on the peaks of the mountains in Jamaica?


Never been recorded. No freezing temps either although it's been down to 0.7C at the summit.
Quoting 428. StormTrackerScott:
6" of snow in Jacksonville, FL?

Quoting 437. StormTrackerScott:


Hard to imagine that this could happen.
It could happen.

1. A previously not forecast second wave of energy riding the southward sagging front during the wee hours of Thursday AM.

2. Deeper, colder air than was originally forecast by the models seeps further southward into North Florida.

3. Enough moisture is still present at all levels of the atmosphere for an all-snow event, much further east and further south than originally anticipated.

4. Low pressure deepens as it departs in the Atlantic, closer to shore and closer to NE Florida than previously expected.

It is interesting to note that the local forecast here in the Tampa Bay area now calls for low temps around 40F, with rain and heavy cloud cover. They are saying it will be "raw" here. Just a few degrees lower and we could conceivably have some sleet or snow flurries mixed in with the rain. We are currently forecast to have a high temperature of about 57 in the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday, but some of the local Mets are now saying, "it could be colder than that."
Quoting 534. KoritheMan:

Yeah, what's new? Always something to stop me from getting what I want.

Oh well, at least I can count on the hurricanes during the summer. Not nearly as hit and miss as this is. :P


Heck , here in Orlando, events with at least a trace of frozen precipitation are rare, but are far more common that having a hurricane in Orlando (I have posted about this on here before). I know of only one time in the past century when actual hurricane conditions happened in Orlando (or even likely happened). Charley 2004.

Accumulating snow has only happened once in Orlando in the past 100 years from records I've seen (1977). Thus the Orlando area is likely no more hurricane prone than it is snowstorm prone. Tropical storms (and fringe affects from 'canes), that's a different story. But these do not tend to cause much widespread, meaningful damage here.
Quoting 552. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Has it ever snowed on the peaks of the mountains in Jamaica?

Don't think so, it get very chilly though. It's very windy and wet as well. Rainfall totals can get up to 6000mm annually.
Quoting 559. nigel20:

Don't think so, it get very chilly though. It's very windy and wet as well. Rainfall totals can get up to 6000mm annually.


236 inches of rain a year... yikes. That is alot of rain.
Quoting 552. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Has it ever snowed on the peaks of the mountains in Jamaica?
maybe during the last ice age but I don't think there is anybody around to tell us and gro is likely gone to sleep or will be soon
Quoting 554. BaltimoreBrian:



+1000000000000000
Quoting 556. BaltimoreBrian:


Never been recorded. No freezing temps either although it's been down to 0.7C at the summit.
Thanks Brian. Hey FLWaterFront I like your optimism, you give good scenarios of what could happen, and it is not unrealistic ones either.
Quoting 562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe during the last ice age but I don't think there is anybody around to tell us and gro is likely gone to sleep or will be soon


The geritol has probably kicked in already.
I love it when a plan comes together

Quoting 561. Dakster:


236 inches of rain a year... yikes. That is alot of rain.

No doubt! It is one of two rain forests on the island. Coastal towns can exceed 3000mm on the windward side of the blue mountains. The Blue mountains is the source of most of Kingston's water. Kingston has a population of 600000 and a metro of 900000.
Quoting 565. Dakster:


The geritol has probably kicked in already.
snoozing like a baby
Quoting 511. KoritheMan:

I think one factor is whether the boundary layer cools enough to eliminate that warm inversion I mentioned.
And it may well do just that, at least in NW Florida and surrounding areas. As Jedkins has pointed out again and again, the models tend to underestimate how quickly the atmosphere can be cooled in a situation like this, particularly this far south. We'll see, but I am skeptical that it will be only ice near the coasts and that ALL of the snow will be 50 or more miles inland in the SE US.
WRAL meteorologist just said that new information is showing less snow and the potential for a dangerous ice storm. Specifically he said little to no snow in Wilmington and bad ice almost the whole time. Only time will tell.

Quoting 558. HurrMichaelOrl:


Heck , here in Orlando, events with at least a trace of frozen precipitation are rare, but are far more common that having a hurricane in Orlando (I have posted about this on here before). I know of only one time in the past century when actual hurricane conditions happened in Orlando (or even likely happened). Charley 2004.

Accumulating snow has only happened once in Orlando in the past 100 years from records I've seen (1977). Thus the Orlando area is likely no more hurricane prone than it is snowstorm prone. Tropical storms (and fringe affects from 'canes), that's a different story. But these do not tend to cause much widespread, meaningful damage here.
Sounds like that isn't exactly my vacation spot during the summer, then. Thanks for informing me. ;)
Not sure if this has been posted yet... but

000
FXUS64 KMOB 280331 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
931 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING OR ACCUMULATION
FORECAST THIS EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO ADJUST HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE AREA AS GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE CRASH OF DEWPOINTS VERY WELL
(DEWPOINTS OF BELOW 0F JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA). THIS SURGE OF VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR IS LENDING CONFIDENCE TO EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TOMORROW AS PRECIP DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PRECIP IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY.

ONE INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND RAP ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY AS IT COULD ENHANCE WINTER PRECIP TOTALS FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE NAM HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR THE FULL 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO
COME IN BEFORE MAKING ANY TIMING CHANGES. WHILE THE NAM DOES SHOW
THINGS ENDING QUICKER...IT MATCHES UP QUITE WELL WITH OUR CURRENT
THINKING REGARDING PRECIP TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.

ONE OF THE TOUGHER PARTS OF THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT FIRST GLANCE ARE FREEZING RAIN...THE SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A 2500-3000 FT LAYER BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE COLUMN OF -7C. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS FREEZING TO SLEET BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN THE MOBILE METRO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 34/JFB
573. etxwx
One more reading link before I'm out of the night... interesting and kinda appropriate since we could all use a nice campfire to stay warm over the next few days. :) Have a good night all!

300,000-Year-Old Hearth Found In Qesem Cave; Ancient ‘Campfire’ Sheds Light On Human Culture
Quoting 556. BaltimoreBrian:


Never been recorded. No freezing temps either although it's been down to 0.7C at the summit.


I've heard the mountains have had frost. But of course, this can happen at temps as high as the low 40s, so it makes sense. In the last 250 years, there are reports that the Bahamas, Cuba and Bermuda have experienced frozen precipitation. In Bermuda, it was mentioned in a news report sometime in the 1770s. The northern Coast of Cuba reportedly had light (non-accumulating) snow in the 1800s (can't remember when exactly). The Bahamas had a mix of rain and snow in 1977 (Freeport).
Quoting 574. HurrMichaelOrl:


I've heard the mountains have had frost. But of course, this can happen at temps as high as the low 40s, so it makes sense. In the last 250 years, there are reports that the Bahamas, Cuba and Bermuda have experienced frozen precipitation. In Bermuda, it was mentioned in a news report sometime in the 1770s. The northern Coast of Cuba reportedly had light (non-accumulating) snow in the 1800s (can't remember when exactly). The Bahamas had a mix of rain and snow in 1977 (Freeport).


Where in the world did the cold air come from in Bermuda??
Quoting 558. HurrMichaelOrl:


Heck , here in Orlando, events with at least a trace of frozen precipitation are rare, but are far more common that having a hurricane in Orlando (I have posted about this on here before). I know of only one time in the past century when actual hurricane conditions happened in Orlando (or even likely happened). Charley 2004.

Accumulating snow has only happened once in Orlando in the past 100 years from records I've seen (1977). Thus the Orlando area is likely no more hurricane prone than it is snowstorm prone. Tropical storms (and fringe affects from 'canes), that's a different story. But these do not tend to cause much widespread, meaningful damage here.
I think there was either a second snow event with light accumulations north of Orlando (around Sanford, Deltona and points north) during the winter of 1977 and/or in 1978 as well, though I may be remembering the latter incorrectly.

As for hurricanes, Donna in 1960 still had hurricane-force winds, possibly even Cat 2 level, when it went through Orlando. Please check the records to see how accurate this is, though I am nearly certain about Donna in 1960. I am not as certain about the two or more snowfalls in '77 and '78. One of those happened, at least, but I am not sure which one.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
931 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING OR ACCUMULATION
FORECAST THIS EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO ADJUST HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE AREA AS GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE CRASH OF DEWPOINTS VERY WELL
(DEWPOINTS OF BELOW 0F JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA). THIS SURGE OF VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR IS LENDING CONFIDENCE TO EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TOMORROW AS PRECIP DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PRECIP IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY.

ONE INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND RAP ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY AS IT COULD ENHANCE WINTER PRECIP TOTALS FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR THE FULL 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO
COME IN BEFORE MAKING ANY TIMING CHANGES. WHILE THE NAM DOES SHOW
THINGS ENDING QUICKER...IT MATCHES UP QUITE WELL WITH OUR CURRENT
THINKING REGARDING PRECIP TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.

ONE OF THE TOUGHER PARTS OF THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT FIRST GLANCE ARE FREEZING RAIN...THE SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A 2500-3000 FT LAYER BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE COLUMN OF -7C. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS FREEZING TO SLEET BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN THE MOBILE METRO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 34/JFB
The Tallahassee discussion mentions the possibility of banding as well.
WEDmobmet - that has NOT been posted! WOOHOO!!! Bring on da' snow - but not before I get home from work! The bank is going to try and open at 9..
580. VR46L
Quoting 549. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would have been nice to see what the FIM had to say. Link


The HRRR model is down too
00z models so far are looking better for the panhandle of Florida. More backend wintry precip.
Quoting 541. VAbeachhurricanes:
Wow... I'm in love with the 0z GFS


What is it showing compared to previous runs?
Quoting 582. CarolinaHurricanes87:


What is it showing compared to previous runs?


More snow for me, around 10 inches.
DRIVES ME MAD!!!!

TWC showing how to save yourself in an ice skid. Look, I understand that some may need to drive.

Unless it is an emergency, DO NOT drive on ice!!!!!
Quoting 575. VAbeachhurricanes:


Where in the world did the cold air come from in Bermuda??


It's been in the low 40s there. With a very cold mid-level atmosphere maybe?

Two accounts:

Bermuda* Snowflakes were reported in March 1784 and possibly in January 1874 in the Prospect Hill.

The 1783-1784 winter was extremely severe on the east coast. Balitmore port was closed due to ice until a few days before April. After the Laki eruption in Iceland the previous year.
up to .75 inches of ice for southern SC... That is going to be brutal...
Quoting 571. KoritheMan:

Sounds like that isn't exactly my vacation spot during the summer, then. Thanks for informing me. ;)


:) Excluding the past 8.5 years or so, the coast of S. FL and the Panhandle would be a better bet for tropical cyclones in late summer or fall. Orlando has its good points though. Not a bad place to visit, especially in winter. I'm not a fan of the heat. Your area of Louisiana definitely gets more interesting weather than Central FL, hands down.
Quoting 579. AllyBama:
WEDmobmet - that has NOT been posted! WOOHOO!!! Bring on da' snow - but not before I get home from work! The bank is going to try and open at 9..


i guess if at least they close early enough, should have a good amount of time to get back home and pop the corn

Quoting 584. nash36:
DRIVES ME MAD!!!!

TWC showing how to save yourself in an ice skid. Look, I understand that some may need to drive.

Unless it is an emergency, DO NOT drive on ice!!!!!
logicdoesnotcompute.gif
Quoting 586. VAbeachhurricanes:
up to .75 inches of ice for southern SC... That is going to be brutal...


Incredibly brutal. I've never seen that much ice. I've lived in NOvi, MI and Dallas, TX, which is known for ice storms. At most, we have had .5 inches, which brought said cities to a standstill. .75 here without proper equipment will be very bad. Power issues everywhere.
Quoting 588. WDEmobmet:


i guess if at least they close early enough, should have a good amount of time to get back home and pop the corn


..or go buy a loaf of bread..hubby thinks that the power will NOT go out..so, pretty certain it will now! lol
Quoting 590. nash36:


Incredibly brutal. I've never seen that much ice. I've lived in NOvi, MI and Dallas, TX, which is known for ice storms. At most, we have had .5 inches, which brought said cities to a standstill. .75 here without proper equipment will be very bad. Power issues everywhere.


What's worse is that you guys will get snow on top of ice which makes things very deceptive.
593. skook
Quoting 574. HurrMichaelOrl:


I've heard the mountains have had frost. But of course, this can happen at temps as high as the low 40s, so it makes sense. In the last 250 years, there are reports that the Bahamas, Cuba and Bermuda have experienced frozen precipitation. In Bermuda, it was mentioned in a news report sometime in the 1770s. The northern Coast of Cuba reportedly had light (non-accumulating) snow in the 1800s (can't remember when exactly). The Bahamas had a mix of rain and snow in 1977 (Freeport).



blizzard of 1857
Quoting 592. Drakoen:


What's worse is that you guys will get snow on top of ice which makes things very deceptive.


I know Drak. My area (inland from the Charleston battery by about 20 miles) is forecast to have 2-4 inches of snow on top of the ice. I fear many accidents and fatal ones at that.

And some of the models are showing even higher amounts tonight, so this could get really ugly.
looks like the groundhog gets a little snow come sunday

Quoting 591. AllyBama:


..or go buy a loaf of bread..hubby thinks that the power will NOT go out..so, pretty certain it will now! lol


Yea I'm curious to see the outcome. Wife has been worried about the power as well
Anyone know why cold air advection has been so slow in Texas this evening?
Quoting 545. nash36:


We have been.

Severe wx breaks down just west of I-95 and disappears. We had a few inches of snow back in Feb. of 2010. I moved here from Tampa in the summer of 2009. Never, that I can remember, has the Charleston area had an ice event like what is being forecast.


We haven't had an ice storm while i have lived here since 96. This will prob be the most significant winter storm since 89.
So before Christmas, my daughter in P'cola told her 4 yr old that Santa wouldn't come until it snowed to avoid the every day question "is Santa coming tonight?"... wonder what she is going to tell her now! ROFL
I'll be getting the "best" (worst) of both worlds with this event. We're looking at around .50" of ice accumulation in the Wilmington area (0z GFS was higher) and then several inches (4-7") of snow as the column cools tomorrow night. Looks like many here will be without power for a while, including myself.

Have to be in Wilmington at noon. Hope things aren't bad by then.
601. yoboi
Quoting 580. VR46L:


The HRRR model is down too


Well the Louisiana model is up and running....Just ran out to the outdoor kitchen to check on the shrimp, crab, oyster and sausage Gumbo.....It's 36.2 with about a steady 15-20 wind out of the NNW...Rice check, green onions check, potato salad check, beer outside chilling double check.....Be safe everyone and only travel if needed.....
All I'm asking is that if I lose power that I have it back before the superbowl on Sunday..LOL
Quoting 600. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll be getting the "best" (worst) of both worlds with this event. We're looking at around .50" of ice accumulation in the Wilmington area (0z GFS was higher) and then several inches (4-7") of snow as the column cools tomorrow night. Looks like many here will be without power for a while, including myself.

Have to be in Wilmington at noon. Hope things aren't bad by then.


Enjoy TA!!!!!!

I know you'll revel in this :-)
Quoting 602. ncstorm:
All I'm asking is that if I lose power that I have it back before the superbowl on Sunday..LOL


LOL!!!!

Nothing more needs to be said here. Well done, sir.
Quoting 600. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll be getting the "best" (worst) of both worlds with this event. We're looking at around .50" of ice accumulation in the Wilmington area (0z GFS was higher) and then several inches (4-7") of snow as the column cools tomorrow night. Looks like many here will be without power for a while, including myself.

Have to be in Wilmington at noon. Hope things aren't bad by then.


Have fun Cody!
Quoting 576. FLWaterFront:
I think there was either a second snow event with light accumulations north of Orlando (around Sanford, Deltona and points north) during the winter of 1977 and/or in 1978 as well, though I may be remembering the latter incorrectly.

As for hurricanes, Donna in 1960 still had hurricane-force winds, possibly even Cat 2 level, when it went through Orlando. Please check the records to see how accurate this is, though I am nearly certain about Donna in 1960. I am not as certain about the two or more snowfalls in '77 and '78. One of those happened, at least, but I am not sure which one.


Yeah, I thought Donna was the only other occurrence in 100 years. But then I checked the record for Orlando from the day and the highest sustained wind was 46 mph. So obviously it did not cause sustained hurricane force winds in Orlando. It may have still been a category 2 when it made its closest approach to Orlando, but Orlando wasn't really near the coc. From what i gather, Donna was like Charley, just ~50 miles west of the path Charley took. I recall that areas such as Leesburg may have experienced hurricane force winds.

Some areas of Central FL did get several inches of snow in 1977, including the Orlando area. When I check the hourly observations from that day, only one hourly observation reported light snow at the Orlando Int'l airport. Clearly there were no accumulations in that corner of Orlando.
So before Christmas, my daughter in P'cola told her 4 yr old that Santa wouldn't come until it snowed to avoid the every day question "is Santa coming tonight?"... wonder what she is going to tell her now! ROFL
Before I go tonight, I'll leave with a picture of the ice storm I experienced in Illinois in 2006. I'll never forget how it was that night: the muffled thud of tree limbs falling all around the neighborhood, the power going out, and us huddling in a room in the house where branches weren't overhanging the roof. Be safe out there tomorrow/Wed.
Quoting 604. nash36:


LOL!!!!

Nothing more needs to be said here. Well done, sir.


I'm a she..its okay though..people seem to think that all the time on here :)..stay safe Nash..and yall watch out for Cantore..
Quoting 595. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like the groundhog gets a little snow come sunday

So would that mean cloudy skies and a early spring ?
Quoting 602. ncstorm:
All I'm asking is that if I lose power that I have it back before the superbowl on Sunday..LOL


Hi nc. Two things:

1. Depends on ice accumulations. You know this, but it sets up #2.

2. Priority listing. Hopefully, you're on the utilities' high end of priorities (after the major stuff as in the essential facilities). We had an ice storm in the '90s here. From what Mom told me, she wasn't out at all...but the people who were on the bottom of the schedule to be restored had to wait two weeks until power came back.

Hopefully you guys don't get hit so hard.
Charleston NWS:


SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FREEZING LEVELS BY THE MORNING
HOURS FAR INLAND AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 16 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP
LAYER OF WARMER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THAT PERSISTS INTO
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS KIND OF ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN HAZARD...SPREADING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET
FOLLOWING THE COLDER AIR INTO THE EVENING TIME FRAME. A SOLID
NORTHWEST DIRECTION IN ISALLOBARIC WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE ARCTIC
AIR WILL PENETRATE TO THE COASTLINE...AND THUS FREEZING RAIN IS
STILL LIKELY ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER RETREAT BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THESE AREAS. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WHILE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL
SOMEWHAT MITIGATE OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATION FARTHER WEST.

FREEZING RAIN RESULTING IN ICE ACCUMULATION...COMBINED WITH SOME
SLEET AND SNOWFALL...WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CHANGEOVER TIMES OF RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE ALL WATCHES TO WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHWEST TIER...WITH UP TO 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD BE IN AN IDEAL LOCATION TO RECEIVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A LATER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3/4 INCH. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ISSUING AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO THE HIGHER IMPACTS OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. NORTH WINDS COULD ALSO SURGE TO AROUND
10 TO 20 MPH...ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO BE DOWN INTO THE TEENS.
EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. POWER
OUTAGES ARE QUITE LIKELY...AND AREA ROADS WILL BE TREACHEROUS.
bout 20 miles east of Fayetteville, nc looks like we might be getting close to a foot now. hope that holds as long as no sleet or freezing rain happens its a good possiblity
614. VR46L
Quoting 601. yoboi:


Well the Louisiana model is up and running....Just ran out to the outdoor kitchen to check on the shrimp, crab, oyster and sausage Gumbo.....It's 36.2 with about a steady 15-20 wind out of the NNW...Rice check, green onions check, potato salad check, beer outside chilling double check.....Be safe everyone and only travel if needed.....


Your making me hungry.....

Stay Safe folks
Quoting 611. Astrometeor:


Hi nc. Two things:

1. Depends on ice accumulations. You know this, but it sets up #2.

2. Priority listing. Hopefully, you're on the utilities' high end of priorities (after the major stuff as in the essential facilities). We had an ice storm in the '90s here. From what Mom told me, she wasn't out at all...but the people who were on the bottom of the schedule to be restored had to wait two weeks until power came back.

Hopefully you guys don't get hit so hard.


I've experience two ice storms here in Wilmington..the most memorable was March 1993 was the worst..I came home from college for spring break and couldn't return till after the roads cleared up..we had no heat and bundling up in blankets does not help with the cold people..not one bit..
Quoting 608. opal92nwf:
Before I go tonight, I'll leave with a picture of the ice storm I experienced in Illinois in 2006. I'll never forget how it was that night: the muffled thud of tree limbs falling all around the neighborhood, the power going out, and us huddling in a room in the house where branches weren't overhanging the roof. Be safe out there tomorrow/Wed.

Any idea how much ice that is? Trying to get a grip on how much .5" is for tomorrow.
Quoting 586. VAbeachhurricanes:
up to .75 inches of ice for southern SC... That is going to be brutal...


Here in Western KY, the ice storm we had in 2009 we had 2 inches of ice. That was catastrophic to the entire utility infrastructure with unbelievable tree damage as well. The utility companies basically had to rebuild everything.
Quoting 609. ncstorm:


I'm a she..its okay though..people seem to think that all the time on here :)..stay safe Nash..and yall watch out for Cantore..


Sorry ma'am. All this time I had the wrong gender. LOL!!! Allow me to make amends. Stay safe ma'am.
Quoting 581. Drakoen:
00z models so far are looking better for the panhandle of Florida. More backend wintry precip.



:)
620. yoboi
Quoting 614. VR46L:


Your making me hungry.....

Stay Safe folks


Well I am just on the other side of the BIG bayou between us....hop on a boat and get a bite to eat....
Quoting 619. Jedkins01:



:)


Good!!!!

I want you guys to get some of this too, just not anything destructive.
Quoting 609. ncstorm:


I'm a she..its okay though..people seem to think that all the time on here :)..stay safe Nash..and yall watch out for Cantore..
...You know, I think there's a lesson in this somewhere for me. Something about not assuming. :)
Quoting 558. HurrMichaelOrl:


Heck , here in Orlando, events with at least a trace of frozen precipitation are rare, but are far more common that having a hurricane in Orlando (I have posted about this on here before). I know of only one time in the past century when actual hurricane conditions happened in Orlando (or even likely happened). Charley 2004.

Accumulating snow has only happened once in Orlando in the past 100 years from records I've seen (1977). Thus the Orlando area is likely no more hurricane prone than it is snowstorm prone. Tropical storms (and fringe affects from 'canes), that's a different story. But these do not tend to cause much widespread, meaningful damage here.



This is one of those interesting facts I like to discuss with people about the Tampa Bay area too. The Tampa Bay area has actually had more snow events than hurricanes in the last 100 years :)
Quoting 616. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any idea how much ice that is? Trying to get a grip on how much .5" is for tomorrow.

I heard it was a quarter of an inch back in 06, but when I checked maps just recently from that event, it said I got .5
Quoting 616. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any idea how much ice that is? Trying to get a grip on how much .5" is for tomorrow.


Cody is trying to get a grip about ice, get it? (pun intended)
Quoting 622. KoritheMan:
...You know, I think there's a lesson in this somewhere for me. Something about not assuming. :)


Get in chat and I'll tell you.
Oh hell....

Charleston is under a DOOMCON of 8!!!!

Where is the will??

LOL!
Quoting 619. Jedkins01:



:)



Quoting 621. nash36:


Good!!!!

I want you guys to get some of this too, just not anything destructive.



Yes, snow for all!

Model trends are still looking good, I keep repetitively looking at the same old data and being paranoid that the models will back off completely and thus giving us only plain old rain, lol.

630. beell
Quoting 616. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any idea how much ice that is? Trying to get a grip on how much .5" is for tomorrow.




1/2" of ice on a tree limb
More models are saying more winter weather for the south on Feb 9-10.
Have a good night guys! Remember to Keep warm.
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EST Tuesday 28 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:102.1 kPa
Tendency:rising
Visibility:24 km
Temperature:-17.2°C
Dewpoint:-22.1°C
Humidity:66%
Wind:W 31 gust 41 km/h
Wind Chill: -29
Models mainly showing sleet and freezing rain for the Mobile, Al area or is there some snow to? Local mets are all saying something different here
Quoting 630. beell:




1/2" of ice on a tree limb


Pretty to look at. Ugly to be in.
637. beell
Quoting 636. Drakoen:


Pretty to look at. Ugly to be in.


Looks just as ugly on a power line in a 15 mph wind.
Ice is...heavy!
Quoting 635. mobhurricane2011:
Models mainly showing sleet and freezing rain for the Mobile, Al area or is there some snow to? Local mets are all saying something different here


Stay up to date with the NWS. Snow and Sleet accumulations of 1-3 inches after ice.


Quoting 628. Drakoen:






Its interesting because the NAM all along has been the least ambitious for frozen precip in the Central panhandle/Tallahassee area from what I've seen, I didn't see this run yet, looks more impressive this area.
Quoting 610. Climate175:
So would that mean cloudy skies and a early spring ?
in a sic sorta way I guess

Quoting 626. Astrometeor:


Get in chat and I'll tell you.
Eh... I'll get on tomorrow to announce the extent to which nature wishes to troll me. Just not feeling it tonight.

Knowing my luck, I'll get a massive power outage due to the ice, with only a dusting of snow.

Sorry. :P
Quoting 629. Jedkins01:

Yes, snow for all!

Model trends are still looking good, I keep repetitively looking at the same old data and being paranoid that the models will back off completely and thus giving us only plain old rain, lol.
The anafront moves
southwards bringing freezing rain
to Tally then snow?
Quoting 637. beell:


Looks just as ugly on a power line in a 15 mph wind.
Ice is...heavy!


yes

yes it is
very dangerous

more so when things start snapping and falling

i've seen it first hand already this winter hopefully that was it for it

hopefully
Quoting 602. ncstorm:
All I'm asking is that if I lose power that I have it back before the superbowl on Sunday..LOL

I hope so and i hope i dont lose power either.. good luck to us all and especially for u on the se coast..
Quoting 639. Jedkins01:





Its interesting because the NAM all along has been the least ambitious for frozen precip in the Central panhandle/Tallahassee area from what I've seen, I didn't see this run yet, looks more impressive this area.


According to this meteogram generator the GFS 00z sees us transition from freezing rain to snow Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon. It assumes 11:1 ratios though so it's probably best to cut those totals in half: C-0.6in.
I have to wonder, having never experienced a cold-related power outage myself, if it would be worse to be without electricity during heat duress (hurricanes) or cold. Theoretically it seems like you could keep warm during the latter, whereas with the heat there's only so many methods to cool off.

I'll admit, the irrational side of me wants to see it just once.
Nash, 00z GFS wants to give you guys in excess of an inch of freezing rain followed by sleet and snow.
Out of curiosity how bad is an inch of freezing rain? Will it bring down trees?
Quoting 623. Jedkins01:



This is one of those interesting facts I like to discuss with people about the Tampa Bay area too. The Tampa Bay area has actually had more snow events than hurricanes in the last 100 years :)
Off the top of my head:

Hurricanes (not all direct strikes but within 30 NM):

1. 1921

2. 1935

3. 1945

4. 1948 or '49 (or maybe both but I doubt it)

5. 1950 Hurricane Easy

6. 1960 Hurricane Donna

7. 1968 Hurricane Gladys

8. 2004 Hurricane Charley (passed within 30 NM of Eastern Hillsborough County)

Snow Events:

( I don't know of any prior to 1958 but there surely were some. The '20s, 30s and 40s were generally warmer than the '50s thru the '80s)

1. February of 1958

2. Jan '63 or '64 (Gulf effect snow shower coated surface of a golf course in St. Pete for an hour or so before melting)

3. February of 1973 (Pasco County and north. Brief snow showers, part of the Great Southeast Blizzard that dumped huge amounts of snow from North Florida up through the Carolinas. Areas around Florence, SC got up to 23" with this).

4. January 19, 1977 (from one half inch to two and a half inches of accumulation throughout the Tampa Bay area and beyond. Most snow on record for the region, though anecdotal tales from the February 1899 Great Blizzard suggest much more may have fallen with that one).

5. March 2, 1980 (Light snow with arctic frontal passage)

6. December, 1983 (Gulf effect snow flurries with deep arctic front)

7. January, 1985 (Gulf effect snow flurries in Pasco and Hernado Counties with cold air advection from deep arctic airmass)

8. February, 1989 (Light snow flurries reported in Pasco and Hernando counties)

9. December, 1989 (Light snowfall and snow flurries in famous "Christmas Freeze" of deep arctic airmass)

10. March, 1993 (March '93 superstorm brought both sleet and snow flurries to the Tampa Bay area)

11. December, 1996 (light snow reported in a few areas around Tampa Bay)

12. January or February (cannot remember which) of 2010 (snow was forecast for the area but instead widespread sleet fell over the region. A few snow flurries were mixed in).

Looks like you're right, more snow events than 'canes in our region.
Quoting 649. NCSCguy:
Out of curiosity how bad is an inch of freezing rain? Will it bring down trees?


Can easily bring down powerlines, and snap the branches off trees.
Quoting 649. NCSCguy:
Out of curiosity how bad is an inch of freezing rain? Will it bring down trees?
Tree branches and some tree limbs definitely. Whole trees, not as much. But all you need to disrupt electrical power is countless ice-laden branches falling on icy power lines.
Temperatures dropping, some sleet beginning to mix in with the rain in the Austin area.
Quoting 649. NCSCguy:
Out of curiosity how bad is an inch of freezing rain? Will it bring down trees?


Very bad. Yes. Not entire trees but large branches. Enough to cause a major disruption.
No decision yet from The University of Texas on classes tomorrow. My guess is they will be delayed two hours.
0z GFS looks a little wetter for my area. Good.
Quoting 629. Jedkins01:



Yes, snow for all!

Model trends are still looking good, I keep repetitively looking at the same old data and being paranoid that the models will back off completely and thus giving us only plain old rain, lol.

It is not the models that will bring the frozen precipitation, however ;-)

Even in this age of highly advanced computer-assisted forecasting, the models can be wrong. And in a very tricky winter weather situation my guess, though I don't know this for a fact, is that the models have a tougher time pinning down details than they would or than they do with tropical cyclones. So regardless of what the models say, THINK SNOW! lol
Charleston's Post and Courier has put up a nice slide show of past snow events.

Quoting 657. FLWaterFront:
It is not the models that will bring the frozen precipitation, however ;-)

Even in this age of highly advanced computer-assisted forecasting, the models can be wrong. And in a very tricky winter weather situation my guess, though I don't know this for a fact, is that the models have a tougher time pinning down details than they would or than they do with tropical cyclones. So regardless of what the models say, THINK SNOW! lol
The thing with winter weather... small-scale nuances play a much larger role than they do with tropical or severe weather. A prime example being... the layer of warm air aloft sitting above me around 900 mb through about 800 mb.

If you didn't know, I'm using a bunch of unnecessary words to cordially say I agree with you. Caution should be advised. :P
can someone post the 0z gfs or a link please?
Quoting 660. NCSCguy:
can someone post the 0z gfs or a link please?


Link
it seems weather underground has backed off on the snow in our area. i'm just east of Baton Rouge. last night the forecast was 10 to 12 hours of first ice and then snow. now the WU forecast is for ice pellets only, for 4 to 6 hours. any thoughts on this?
so according to the 0z gfs, it is going to rain until noon tomorrow before it changes over in charleston. that doesnt seem right, does it?
Sorry I'm still noobish when it comes to reading models.
Quoting 659. KoritheMan:

The thing with winter weather... small-scale nuances play a much larger role than they do with tropical or severe weather. A prime example being... the layer of warm air aloft sitting above me around 900 mb through about 800 mb.

If you didn't know, I'm using a bunch of unnecessary words to cordially say I agree with you. Caution should be advised. :P
You explained it very well. Thank you!
Quoting 663. NCSCguy:
so according to the 0z gfs, it is going to rain until noon tomorrow before it changes over in charleston. that doesnt seem right, does it?


In downtown Charleston once it gets to 32 or below it will be freezing rain I would say mid afternoon. NWS in Charleston did point out that the new NAM has 32 to coast by morning have to keep a close eye on that.
Quoting 663. NCSCguy:
so according to the 0z gfs, it is going to rain until noon tomorrow before it changes over in charleston. that doesnt seem right, does it?

The NWS in Charleston is calling for rain or a mix of freezing rain and rain until about 3pm.
Quoting 649. NCSCguy:
Out of curiosity how bad is an inch of freezing rain? Will it bring down trees?


Quoting 665. Patrap:
It's coming Pat, earlier than forecasted.
Quoting 669. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That was from one inch? Wow.
img src="">


Night.
Quoting 671. NCSCguy:
That was from one inch? Wow.
it was 25 to 30 mm of rain which turned to ice on contact
ECMWF 00z very generous to many places :)

entire event was about 8 hrs from 10pm at night till7 am in the morning
Quoting 676. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
entire event was about 8 hrs from 10pm at night till7 am in the morning

So similar to the duration of whats coming?
2.3 here Drak

Not too shabby dabby'


NWS Charleston

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GA/SC THROUGH DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 6 AM SO NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 6 AM ACROSS NORTHWEST BERKELEY COUNTY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL SURFACE WET BULB PROJECTIONS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER 6 AM TOWARD THE CENTRAL SC COAST SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WET BULB/RADARTRENDS AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING RUSH.
Current temperature Pat?
48.2F falling Mid City

Baton Rouge 38F falling

Shreveport,32F falling
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TOMORROW. THESE IMPACTS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 00Z AND 06Z IN THE EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FIRST OCCURRING AT KMCB AND KBTR. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW DEVELOP BY 15Z AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT KHUM... KMSY... KNEW... KASD... AND KGPT AND WILL LAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES ON AIRCRAFT AND RUNWAYS AT THESE TERMINALS...WITH TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE BY 00Z. A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AT THESE TERMINALS AS THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS COOLS AND PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER TO NORTH...AT KHDC...KMCB...AND KGPT...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 15Z...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET AT KBTR AND KHDC BY 18-20Z. AT KMCB...THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...AND EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR AT KMCB FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS.
Quoting 681. Patrap:
48.2F falling Mid City

Baton Rouge 38F falling

Shreveport,32F falling
Thanks, so Sleet starts in Baton Rouge with the precip.
Snow flurries reported in Hattiesburg ms.
Quoting 684. Andrebrooks:
Snow flurries reported in Hattiesburg ms.


Really? There's hardly anything on radar
Quoting 685. Drakoen:


Really? There's hardly anything on radar
Reported by local mets.
Sure is a wild low Cloud deck swirling in.

Definitely different than the Jan 6-9 event.
Quoting 687. Patrap:
Sure is a wild low Cloud deck swirling in.

Definitely different than the Jan 6-9 event.
Yep.
Quoting 686. Andrebrooks:
Reported by local mets.


Having a hard time believing it with 850s 5 to 6 degrees celsius.
Quoting 671. NCSCguy:
That was from one inch? Wow.
One inch is a LOT of accumulation in a freezing rain event.
Quoting 681. Patrap:
48.2F falling Mid City

Baton Rouge 38F falling

Shreveport,32F falling


How i imagine it must be for locals there

HPC:

...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE RELATIVELY WEAKER/FASTER OUTLIERS WITH
THE ENERGY TRAVERSING NRN MEXICO AND EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY WED. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL ARE
ALL A BIT DEEPER AND SLOWER. BY THURS...THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM
GLOBAL BECOME THE SLOWEST...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SPLITTING THE
DIFF BETWEEN PROGRESSIVE AND SLOWER CAMPS. WILL FAVOR THE 00Z
ECMWF SOLN.
Drak, do you think Austin will get below freezing tonight? We are hovering right around 33 right now.
39* in Hammond,LA.
good Morning.....
Well I woke up to a nice surprise.... winter storm warning for cobb county now, 1-2" possible.. and the system isn't even really there yet. Maybe we'll get upped some more. It's interesting that in about 10 hours we've gone from having our storm watch dropped and an advisory for about a dusting issues, to now a full out warning.
It's currently 38-37 degrees in hammond la.
A little disappointed with the temps this morning..42 here in Destrehan.La..That's 15 miles west of Nola..
700. IKE
My updated forecast....inland Florida panhandle....

Today: Much colder. Cloudy. Chance of rain and light freezing
rain in the morning...then freezing rain and rain in the afternoon.
Highs 34 to 38. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. North
winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.



Tonight: Light sleet...light freezing rain and snow in the
evening...then snow...sleet and freezing rain likely after midnight.
Lows around 24. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Ice
accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. North winds around 15
mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.



Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light freezing rain or light
sleet or a slight chance of snow in the morning. Highs around 33. No
snow and sleet accumulation. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 704. moonlightcowboy:
The snow is on my doorstep.
3 different channels 3 different forecast....Who do you believe...
Frz. Line in tangipahoa parish.
Anyone in LA or MS can report on the conditions?
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


THE 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS..SO MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF..MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BASED ON
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY/TRENDS.

DAY 1...

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN STATES UP INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AREAS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS
FIELD-WISE AND EVEN QPF-WISE CONCERNING THE WINTRY SYSTEM
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN STATES REGION UP
INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREAS THIS PERIOD.
SOME BACKING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THIS ENTIRE REGION
AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE BUT SOMEWHAT DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM H5
S/WV..ALONG WITH MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL GULF INFLOW INTO THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EVEN BETTER LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC INFLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AND
LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY..THE MODEL MASS FIELD FORECASTS OF THIS EVENT ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT..GIVING INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOT ONLY TO
THEIR SOLUTIONS BUT ALSO TO THE QPF. MANUAL QPF ENDED UP TAKING A
GENERAL BLEND OF VERY AGREEABLE GFS..ECMWF AND UKMET HIRES AND
CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL QPFS..WITH THE NAM LOOKING TO BE A BIT OF A
WET OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT..PLEASE
SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
Weird storm. Freezing rain being report at Alexandria, LA but New Iberia (farther south) is breezy with light snow.
Quoting 700. IKE:
My updated forecast....inland Florida panhandle....

Today: Much colder. Cloudy. Chance of rain and light freezing
rain in the morning...then freezing rain and rain in the afternoon.
Highs 34 to 38. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. North
winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.



Tonight: Light sleet...light freezing rain and snow in the
evening...then snow...sleet and freezing rain likely after midnight.
Lows around 24. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Ice
accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. North winds around 15
mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.



Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light freezing rain or light
sleet or a slight chance of snow in the morning. Highs around 33. No
snow and sleet accumulation. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Compare and contrast to SW Florida:

Today: Areas of dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 7 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Works for me... ;-)
Quoting 712. Neapolitan:
Compare and contrast to SW Florida:

Today: Areas of dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 7 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Works for me... ;-)


Fort Myers 7 Day
Quoting 712. Neapolitan:
Compare and contrast to SW Florida:

Today: Areas of dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 7 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Works for me... ;-)


Compare to Chicago:

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. COLD. HIGHS 1 TO 6 ABOVE. LOWEST WINDCHILL READINGS 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD. LOWS 3 TO 9 BELOW...EXCEPT 2 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO DOWNTOWN. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 17 TO 22. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
Drive carefully until the fog burns off in S.W. Fl.
Quoting 714. luvtogolf:


Compare to Chicago:

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. COLD. HIGHS 1 TO 6 ABOVE. LOWEST WINDCHILL READINGS 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD. LOWS 3 TO 9 BELOW...EXCEPT 2 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO DOWNTOWN. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 17 TO 22. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
Well, I'm in Naples. You live in Chicago now? Not a lot of golf there today, I'm afraid... ;-)

Speaking of Chicago, though, it's good to see that the NWS has backed off considerably from it's nearly-apocryphal pronouncements yesterday that I posted here. Here's a somewhat encouraging snippet:

AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DESPITE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. ITS POSSIBLE THAT IN JAN 2009
COLD WAVE REFERENCED YESTERDAY...DEEPER SNOW COVER PRESENT PRIOR TO
THE EVENT ENABLED THE COLDER TEMPERATURES DESPITE SIMILAR THERMAL
PROFILES TO THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ORD WILL
COOL ENOUGH TO AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AFTER REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. ROCKFORD`S RECORD WILL REMAIN SAFE.
got my wsw..but only one county in
29F falling to 15F by tonight
Quoting 711. Drakoen:
Weird storm. Freezing rain being report at Alexandria, LA but New Iberia (farther south) is breezy with light snow.



New Iberia is much further south and very near the coast... Interesting as you pointed out.
Quoting 717. GeorgiaStormz:
got my wsw..but only one county in


The way things are shaping up on radar if you you live northern Georgia you will be seeing snow.
Quoting 715. Sfloridacat5:
Drive carefully until the fog burns off in S.W. Fl.
It's insanely foggy this morning, maybe as dense as I've ever seen it here in Florida. Driving down 41, cars were wisely creeping; visibility in places couldn't have been more than 100 feet or so.
Quoting 721. Neapolitan:
It's insanely foggy this morning, maybe as dense as I've ever seen it here in Florida. Driving down 41, cars were wisely creeping; visibility in places couldn't have been more than 100 feet or so.


Yikes!, I'll be leaving to work in a few minutes. It will be a slow go of it.
Fort Myers just East of I75 in the Gateway area the visibility is about 100 ft.
I went outside and I could only see 1 house down the street.
rap gives lots off snow....lets hope i make it home at 25f WITH SNOWW.....

really should havecancelled - my univ is very commuter


do the math
Quoting 720. Drakoen:


The way things are shaping up on radar if you you live northern Georgia you will be seeing snow.


im worried about amounts
THOUGH LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NW GA BAND ARE
LIGHT...UP TO 0.10 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 IN
THIS AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR IN LOWEST 150MB.
G'morning from Central OK,

A dusting of snow turned into a little more than that - a nice coating if you ask me. But all is good. It is the dry, powdery kind, so easy to clear off the car and drive on.

See that folks in the southeast are in for a treat - funny that more snow is expected there than here. Guess it has to do with all that water close by.

On a serious note, those not so accustomed to driving in precipitation occurring in a non-liquid form, take care. No zooming off anywhere . . .

Have a good day. Catch you all later to experience to amazement over this unusual system.

Cheers.
hoping for overperformance

Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone in LA or MS can report on the conditions?


I'm in west central LA, and we were forecasted to have very little ice with primarily snow. Reality is freezing rain and sleet for the last three hours, no snow as of yet. We are glazed in, this is a mess!
NWS Atlanta ‏@NWSAtlanta 2m
Watch as the circle fills. Thats the snow saturating downward to the ground



not quite there yet.

lotsof snow aloft none at surface

24F




should be coming down soon
Quoting 730. LuvsStorms:


I'm in west central LA, and we were forecasted to have very little ice with primarily snow. Reality is freezing rain and sleet for the last three hours, no snow as of yet. We are glazed in, this is a mess!


Interesting because to your south they are reporting light snow.
Quoting Drakoen:


Interesting because to your south they are reporting light snow.


I see that on radar, looks like the transition will happen soon, but it's sleeting really hard at the moment.
fog is gone here now...gfs for this evening....
May have to up that winter weather advisory in Jackson, MS to a winter storm warning. Heavy returns showing up on radar.
wow freeze all the way down to florida............
Winter Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...VERY COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ENTIRELY BY EARLY EVENING.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060>066-072>074-282015-
/O.CON.KJAN.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140129T0000Z/
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...
BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...
COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...
LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
609 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING.

* TIMING: TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING

* IMPACTS: PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING MOSTLY AS FREEZING RAIN AND
THIS IS RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH ICE COULD ACCUMULATE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET LATER THIS MORNING..WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET. TRAVEL
IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED.

&&

$$
Im guessing those who live in the south coastal states will have a rough trip driving home later on...please be safe and keep that distance from the car in front..driving on ice is terrible..
We need those low dewpoints to push south just a little bit harder!
747. IKE
Crestview Florida temp down 2 degrees to 38 in the last hour.
I am so hoping that we can get a little more snow than predicted in Daphne, AL! Since we have to get the ice it would be nice if we had a nice amount of snow to go with it!
I hope not too many power outages today,freezing temps on the way..
Quoting 746. PensacolaDoug:
We need those low dewpoints to push south just a little bit harder!


As of 7am EST


...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT QUICKLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE
IN INTENSITY BY TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

GAZ117-119-139>141-281730-
/O.CON.KCHS.IS.W.0001.140129T0600Z-140129T2200Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT MCALLISTER...TYBEE ISLAND...
HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN
424 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS...INCLUDING FIRST RESPONDERS.
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE OR WALK WHEN THIS STORM IS
UNDERWAY. ICE ACCUMULATION WILL DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. IF
YOU ENCOUNTER DOWNED POWER LINES...DO NOT TOUCH THE LINES BECAUSE
YOU COULD BE ELECTROCUTED. REPORT DOWNED POWER LINES TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR THE POWER COMPANY.

&&

$$
What causes that max over the GA/FL line? It's the latest NAM run.



up to Virginia too......................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

VAZ074-076-281615-
/O.EXA.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.140128T2100Z-140129T1200Z/
ESSEX-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TAPPAHANNOCK
315 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: VIRGINIA NORTHERN NECK.

* HAZARDS: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND ICY DUE TO
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$



A very cold rain just started to fall here in NOLA.
Quoting 709. Drakoen:
Anyone in LA or MS can report on the conditions?


I can, Biloxi here. All schools, city/gov offices are closed today and maybe Wed.No word if the casinos will shut down. Our local met is saying it's 37, but with the wind chill about 31.Officals are telling everyone to stay off the roads, unless you have to be out. As of now, it's a sit and wait type of thing. Local met says we are in for 1/2 to 1 inch of freezing rain, turning to ice and maybe an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow. Word is later today, they will shut down the bridges
Good Morning. Looking like a very small window-slight chance for snow tomorrow for the Tallahassee area per the latest forecast (below). Have to see what happens in the Panhandle to our West to get an idea of whether this forecast might verify for us in the Big Bend:

Wednesday Freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain, snow, and sleet between 1pm and 4pm. High near 35. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Quoting 574. HurrMichaelOrl:


I've heard the mountains have had frost. But of course, this can happen at temps as high as the low 40s, so it makes sense.

The 2 meter air temperature may be several degrees higher when frost is experienced, but if there is frost, that means freezing has occurred. The area near the ground likely cooled to ~32F due to radiative cooling and the lower atmosphere had yet to equalize. But you could argue that it is a freeze, just not at the standard near-surface air temperature measuring height.


The rate at which the melted snow falling over SE La and NOLA area on the uptick this morning. Coverage area is increasing quickly.
I know they say 70 here later on but right now its a damp chill..no rain here so far
Quoting 758. GetReal:



A very cold rain just started to fall here in NOLA.
Keep pushing South, that's what I want to see, forget about the folks up north they always get snow every year, let us have a chance down here for once.
Quoting 766. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Keep pushing South, that's what I want to see, forget about the folks up north they always get snow every year, let us have a chance down here for once.


I totally agree,yet wish it was happening over the weekend, so we don't have to miss work
6am tomorrow..wow.............
Speaking of Alaska, there's this from Christopher Burt's blog: the 51° recorded at Nome yesterday was the warmest temperature there to have been observed between the dates of Oct. 17 (55° in 1969) and April 9 (52° in 1940).

Yikes...
All Holmes County Schools will be Closed Wednesday and Thursday January 29th and 30th, 2014 due to the “Winter Storm Warning” for Holmes County. Schools will re-open on January 31, 2014 at regular scheduled times.

All other County Offices will be open at this time.

Please stay tuned to your local news and radio stations for weather updates.
Here is a current Winter mosaic doppler shot of the SE. Looks like the mixed precip is edging just to the North of NOLA at the moment:

Southeast US: Doppler Radar 1800 Mile
Quoting 755. BaltimoreBrian:
What causes that max over the GA/FL line? It's the latest NAM run.



That seems to be up more by Fernandina Beach. Definitely would be a rare sight, I'm wondering if the NAM is picking up on a secondary low forming off the East Coast giving backend moisture?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
701 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion.

...Accumulating Ice and Snow Expected later today and Wednesday...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A rapidly developing Winter Storm over the north central Gulf coast
is expected to combine with a southward moving Arctic air mass to
produce a rare, but potentially hazardous combination of wintry
precipitation across parts of the region today, before spreading
further southward tonight. The main threat for today is Freezing
rain which is expected to be mainly confined to the NW 1/4 of
the CWA, before reaching areas a bit further to the south towards
sunset. Where the freezing rain is expected to fall today, Ice
Accumulations of between .05" and 0.25" are possible, with the
greatest amounts expected across Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties in
SE AL, as well as Clay and Quitman counties in SW GA. Temperatures
in the freezing rain area (which is expected to extend into northern
Walton and Holmes county in the FL Panhandle, are expected to fall
to 32 degrees or below this morning and then remain steady or
possibly even fall slightly as the day wears on. This will make
travel extremely hazardous on bridges, overpasses, and any untreated
or secondary roads, and a Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Our rare winter event will peak during the onset of the short term
period. Expect widespread precipitation tonight with the large scale
ascent and deep layer moisture in place. Sub-freezing temperatures
will gradually spread south and east with the strong cold air
advection in the wake of the Arctic front. By daybreak Wednesday,
all but the southeast Big Bend zones should see freezing
temperatures. This coincides well with the outline of the Winter
Storm Warning which will remain unchanged. I`ve dropped temperatures
just a few degrees for our northwest and northernmost zones tonight
and adjusted weather grids accordingly for precip type. This means
we could see a changeover to light snow possibly mixed with ice
pellets around 00Z or shortly thereafter across SE AL and gradually
spreading into our NW GA zones and the western FL panhandle by 06Z.
Otherwise, there were only minor changes to inherited forecast
through Wednesday. We still expect total ice accumulations near or
just under one-quarter inch for this event in an area generally
across our SE AL zones and northern GA zones. This will have to be
monitored closely as more than that will require an Ice Storm
Warning. We also could see snow amounts on the order of 1 to 2
inches generally north of a line from northern Walton County, FL to
just north of Albany GA.

The wintry precip will be tapering off from north to south as a much
drier airmass filters in with the deepening upper trough and surface
high building in. It will be a very cold day Wednesday with max
temps only in the lower to mid 30s for all but the SE Big Bend where
upper 30s look more likely. We also may see a few lingering showers
in the SE Big Bend late in the day. A hard freeze looks likely over
all or most of the Tri-state region Wednesday night with min temps
possibly down into the teens for our northern and most of our
western zones.

&&
please stay alert and heed your Local warnings,ICE build up could go higher and with gusty winds oh boy...
Quoting 773. VR46L:

Good Morning


Synthetic GOES-R Imagery from Real-Time NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW
Nice looks like the Southern energy has gotten picked up by the digging shortwave over the Central Plains.
Quoting 774. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That seems to be up more by Fernandina Beach. Definitely would be a rare sight, I'm wondering if the NAM is picking up on a secondary low forming off the East Coast giving backend moisture?


It would be bizarre. I'd like to see the Florida snowstorm record of 5" get broken.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I woke up to a mix of sleet and freezing rain in west central Louisiana. Temperature is 25 right now and we're not supposed to get any warmer, but to drop to about 16 degrees. It's supposed to continue until about one this afternoon. Bridges and roads are being closed. Only essential personnel are to report to Post. I'm glad school is closed as teachers fall under essential personnel. (That came about the day after 9/11 and teachers weren't essential personnel and so denied access to Post and over 600 3 to 7 year old kids were all delivered to a school with three teachers, me and two others who had military IDs. Not good.)

A warm winter breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Nutty Buckwheat Buttermilk Pancakes, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 777. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nice looks like the Southern energy has gotten picked up by the digging shortwave over the Central Plains.
is that good or bad?
Here is today's ENSO outlook.  Still in Neutral mode (which might have something to do with the location of current US cold snaps as opposed to La Nina or El Nino winter storm trajectories) but looks like some warming might be on tap if the future.  This possibility might be an inhibiting factor for the Summer hurricane season if El Nino verifies by then.

ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into autumn
Issued on Tuesday 28 January 2014 | Product Code

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina). Climate models suggest an ENSO-neutral state to persist until at least the end of the austral autumn, with some warming of the tropical Pacific likely.

While most ENSO indicators are neutral, strong westerly winds currently over the far western tropical Pacific may lead to some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks.
Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Nino thresholds by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts made at other times of  the year, hence long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.
 
If only we could pull the 850mb front 100 miles or so south lol
Drakoen do you know why that max on the FL/GA line is there? And is it realistic?
Quoting 784. BaltimoreBrian:
Drakoen do you know why that max on the FL/GA line is there? And is it realistic?


I don't think it's realistic. Probably an artifact of the snow map.
Quoting 785. Drakoen:


I don't think it's realistic. Probably an artifact of the snow map.


Awww. We'll see what the run 12 hours from now says. Over and out.
787. VR46L
Quoting 777. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nice looks like the Southern energy has gotten picked up by the digging shortwave over the Central Plains.


Its nice to see the models projected on a satellite background mind you its the WRF .... but if it were to hold up CA gets some great news ....


Interesting last couple of frames of WV loop over south central Texas that is heading ENE.
Reporting in From Wilmington, NC..

34 degrees and cloudy..
Heaviest snow for NC seems to be moving west away from the coast....I assume due to more ice there.

It is funny to see them say 8-10"...never seen such a small range on such a high total.
Good morning everyone.

Decided to play it safe and stay home, even though the event doesn't start until later.
34.6 F in Macon, Ga right now, no sleet yet.
Morehead City, NC....on radar, but not hitting the ground it appears.

Overcast

32°F

painful to watch all the action to the northwest.


I find this setup becoming much more interesting with each passing hour. Look at the coverage area along with the ever increasing moisture over Texas, according to the latest WV loop. There will be time for colder air mass to be in place over the central Gulf coast by the time the aforementioned moisture ban in Texas arrives on the scene. This system is set to over perform IMO. Any other thoughts on this???
Like nc I'm reporting from Wilmington, more in the center of the city. Currently, 33° and light freezing rain at my house.
Nc storm im up the road from you in beaufort freezing rain and little sleet 31.6 in the yard
798. etxwx
Good morning all from Jasper County TX:
Woke up to a light coating of icy sleet on the ground and the backs of the fuzzy cows (no new calves last night - thank goodness), 30F and no snow yet.

#779 - Thanks for breakfast aislinn...you always make our mouths water! Stay safe and warm over there across the border. :-)
At the moment, while North Florida might be spared from the worst, the whole system is going to truck through Alabama and Georgia on the way to the Carolinas.  Gonna be interesting to see how bad the impacts are going to be downstream in North and South Carolina by tomorrow.
Quoting 789. ncstorm:
Reporting in From Wilmington, NC..

34 degrees and cloudy..
dewpoints are running low I expect temps will continue to drop
Quoting 797. absurfer:
Nc storm im up the road from you in beaufort freezing rain and little sleet 31.6 in the yard


no rain here yet for me..I'm in the northern part of the county CapeFearCane..I guess its making its way to me..
Alright guys in 30 mins. Or so, I should get winter wx.
All of this is not hitting the ground..

Quoting 798. etxwx:
Good morning all from Jasper County TX:
Woke up to a light coating of icy sleet on the ground and the backs of the fuzzy cows (no new calves last night - thank goodness), 30F and no snow yet.

#779 - Thanks for breakfast aislinn...you always make our mouths water! Stay safe and warm over there across the border. :-)


Morning, etwex. Since we're probably less and an hour from each other we probably have pretty much the same weather. I think we continue to get this until about noon to one? I am hoping it will switch over to snow soon.
Quoting 801. ncstorm:


no rain here yet for me..I'm in the northern part of the county CapeFearCane..I guess its making its way to me..
I am 37 and they have never got snow totals correct I take forecast with a grain of salt
I have prepared accordingly for any freezing rain in Tallahassee this evening.  I have band rehearsal tonight and packed my guitars and amps in their flight cases last night for the drive across town this evening.................................. :)


There is the source of the increasing moisture of south central Texas; the feature currently over NW Mexico.
Quoting 799. weathermanwannabe:
At the moment, while North Florida might be spared from the worst, the whole system is going to truck through Alabama and Georgia on the way to the Carolinas.  Gonna be interesting to see how bad the impacts are going to be downstream in North and South Carolina by tomorrow.


It will translate eastward as the whole system is moving east and the weather that still in east Texas will pass over us.
Quoting 805. absurfer:
I am 37 and they have never got snow totals correct I take forecast with a grain of salt


Yes..they have been over performances here as well as some serious busts..the forum I was on last night with several Metereologists admitted the forecast for the coast was a difficult one..
May be getting my wish. It's a mix of snow and sleet now.

Quoting 808. Drakoen:


It will translate eastward as the whole system is moving east and the weather that still in east Texas will pass over us.
You still in school in Tallahassee?...........Will be interesting to see if we get any frozen precip tomorrow but with the "shallow" forecast, I don't see them cancelling schools or closing anything down here.
I am anxious/eager to see this ice accumulation here in the Panhandle.
Quoting 709. Drakoen:
Anyone in LA or MS can report on the conditions?


Crowley, Louisiana- Heavy sleet as of 735AM Central
Quoting 812. weathermanwannabe:

You still in school in Tallahassee?...........Will be interesting to see if we get any frozen precip tomorrow but with the "shallow" forecast, I don't see them cancelling schools or closing anything down here.


...............Yes.......................
Just that quick..its 32 degrees here now..

Edit: WU is saying 32 but my NOAA app is saying 34..
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
701 am EST Tue Jan 28 2014

Updated aviation discussion.

..accumulating ice and snow expected later today and Wednesday...

Near term [through today]...
a rapidly developing winter storm over the north central Gulf Coast
is expected to combine with a southward moving Arctic air mass to
produce a rare, but potentially hazardous combination of wintry
precipitation across parts of the region today, before spreading
further southward tonight.
The main threat for today is freezing
rain which is expected to be mainly confined to the northwest 1/4 of
the cwa, before reaching areas a bit further to the south towards
sunset.
Where the freezing rain is expected to fall today, ice
accumulations of between .05" and 0.25" are possible, with the
greatest amounts expected across Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties in
southeast al, as well as Clay and Quitman counties in SW Georgia. Temperatures
in the freezing rain area (which is expected to extend into northern
Walton and Holmes County in the Florida Panhandle, are expected to fall
to 32 degrees or below this morning and then remain steady or
possibly even fall slightly as the day wears on. This will make
travel extremely hazardous on bridges, overpasses, and any untreated
or secondary roads, and a Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect.
Quoting 814. louisianaboy444:


Crowley, Louisiana- Heavy sleet as of 735AM Central


Thank you. Verifying the accuracy of this radar with precip type and seems to be doing well as usual.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 10:24 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Port Douglas to Proserpine.

At 10:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 630 kilometres east
northeast of Cairns and 670 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving west
southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general west southwestwards direction
over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the
Queensland east coast. GALES are currently occurring at times along parts of
the east coast between Cairns and Hamilton Island and may develop further with
damaging wind gusts to 120km/hr possibly developing between Port Douglas and
Proserpine during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and northern parts of the Central Coast and
Whitsundays districts during Wednesday afternoon and should continue and extend
further inland during Thursday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Port
Douglas and Proserpine, mainly on the high tide on Wednesday and Thursday.
Abnormally high tides will likely continue into Friday. Large waves may produce
minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as
much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

People between Port Douglas and Proserpine should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 151.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 150 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Wednesday 29 January.

Quoting 816. ncstorm:
Just that quick..its 32 degrees here now..

I'm sorry, where are you?
Quoting 822. opal92nwf:

I'm sorry, where are you?


Wilmington, NC..but I'm getting different temp results..my NOAA app says 34 but WU is saying 32..all I know its cold here and windy..
Quoting 822. opal92nwf:

I'm sorry, where are you?
coast NC she is gonna be a ice princess a safe one
Not nearly as cold as I expected this morning in College Park, MD. 14F at 6:30Am. I expected 7F. Still dropping a bit. Don't have time to figure out what happened.
What's for breakfast? Hopefully something warm.
Quoting 810. aislinnpaps:
May be getting my wish. It's a mix of snow and sleet now.
This weather for the SE (per the aviation forecast posted below) raises an important issue for the airports and travel safety..........Have they trucked in de-icing trucks for the Atlanta Airport, and other commercial airports in the region, due to icing issue?  You might not have the precip on the ground but once you get into the air, that freezing rain and precip could accumulate on the wings.\

Hope they have prepared for that scenario at the airports..................
It's sleeting in Hammond,La.
WWAY said there are reports of freezing rain in the area..the event wasn't supposed to start until this afternoon so for those who are working some today..please be careful in driving home..
I think the snow in Atlanta may start falling an hour early. Starting to see it filter down to the surface.
12z NAM:

You know I'm finding it very annoying that TWC keeps going on with what WILL BE happening in North Carolina and South Carolina tomorrow over and over and not what is happening at this time. When they go over the storm they literally stand in front of the western half of Louisiana, blocking it, and go on and on about what is going to happen tomorrow. I can tell you when it's going to anything in the Carolinas and when it will stop. Too bad I have to guess by looking at radar when it will be over here and what I might have, more snow or more ice/sleet.

Vent over.
Quoting 828. lobdelse81:
What's for breakfast? Hopefully something warm.


It's post 779. Help yourself and enjoy!
Quoting 834. aislinnpaps:
You know I'm finding it very annoying that TWC keeps going on with what WILL BE happening in North Carolina and South Carolina tomorrow over and over and not what is happening at this time. When they go over the storm they literally stand in front of the western half of Louisiana, blocking it, and go on and on about what is going to happen tomorrow. I can tell you when it's going to anything in the Carolinas and when it will stop. Too bad I have to guess by looking at radar when it will be over here and what I might have, more snow or more ice/sleet.

Vent over.


I know your pain..when Irene was coming up the coast, they featured on NY rather than the states before it..thats TWC for you..I dont have it anymore thanks to DirectV..
Quoting 819. Drakoen:


Thank you. Verifying the accuracy of this radar with precip type and seems to be doing well as usual.


Right now not much precip extends into the Gulf and it has a little less southward motion than I would like to see. Do you think it will heavily build farther south as the day goes on? I mean the models show it extending a third or more into the GOMEX later.
Cold.

Woah.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 09-20132014
16:00 PM RET January 28 2014
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1003 hPa) located at 15.7S 41.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.9S 40.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 18.2S 39.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS 20.8S 37.6E - Depression Se Comblant
72 HRS 21.1S 34.9E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
========================

South southeasterly vertical wind shear has weaken aloft within the past 24 hours and deep convective activity has consolidated near the center since 0700z.

0922z amrs2 et 1010z TRMM microwave imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center. Due to a lack of poleward low level inflow, this clockwise circulation is mainly sustained equatorward by the monsoon flow. In relationship with a southwestwards expected track within the next 60 hours lead time, proximity of the Mozambique coastline should limit the low level convergence on and after Wednesday morning. Wednesday late, southerly to southeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen again.

Any of the available numerical weather prediction models deepen this low significantly at short or medium range and the ensemble forecast of ECMWF does not show any-more probability for a genesis of a tropical storm.

Current intensity does not justify issuance of regular warnings.
Quoting 839. opal92nwf:

Right now not much precip extends into the Gulf and it has a little less southward motion than I would like to see. Do you think it will heavily build farther south as the day goes on? I mean the models show it extending a third or more into the GOMEX later.
should pickup during the day and peak out overnight and tomorrow
Quoting 831. ncstorm:
WWAY said there are reports of freezing rain in the area..the event wasn't supposed to start until this afternoon so for those who are working some today..please be careful in driving home..
Car is iced over sleet and freezing rain its a mess here already
Calling for MAJOR SNOWFALL next week.... Possibly near 2 FT in MD!

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Snow showers around after midnight. Low 23F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 50%. Snowfall around one inch.
Monday
Cloudy with some light snow. High 33F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 50%. Snowfall around one inch.

Tuesday
Cloudy with intermittent snow showers and flurries becoming a steady light snow later. High 32F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 40%. About one inch of snow expected.

Tuesday Night
Snow likely. Low 24F. Winds light and variable. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Wednesday
Snow likely. High around 30F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.

Wednesday Night
Snow in the evening will taper off to light snow overnight. Low 14F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.


I hope this plays out!!!
Quoting 833. GTstormChaserCaleb:
12z NAM:

Back that thang up 100 more miles and I'll be good...
Quoting 818. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Snow band is coming up more north now.Surprise snow for D.C?.I wouldn't count on it...
Yep I'm in the same county (carteret) as absurfer - we already have a solid coat of ice on cars. Gonna be a long day.
Quick question - probably a dumb one - on the models we can see the 850line and different temps at different heights....how would one do that in between model runs? Like is it possible to see if the upper air is currently getting more conducive for snow or less? Just wondering if it is possible to monitor it at all in hopes we might move toward snow and not ice

EDIT: I suppose RAP would be the most logical choice as it updates hourly...duh
I am in Chicago, and rumor has it that a vigorous snowstorm may visit the area, according to local meteorologists, sometime in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame of next week. Does anyone have weather maps or surface charts to illustrate this scenario?
Nam showing as much as 2.5 for D.C now..Going back to the original solution of a south east snow storm with it creeping up in the Mid-Atlantic.
It's cold as hell outside and cloudy..that's all I have to report for the weather as of now.I'll be back to check if the models have gone snowier for D.C.
Ohs the nut that messed up the blog The report buttin are missing
854. NCstu
The snowfall estimates for Charlotte are all over the place. I wonder if we will get any.
Quoting 850. lobdelse81:
I am in Chicago, and rumor has it that a vigorous snowstorm may visit the area, according to local meteorologists, sometime in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame of next week. Does anyone have weather maps or surface charts to illustrate this scenario?


All of that green will likely be snow.



Green on this map means wetter than normal.

Quoting 716. Neapolitan:
Well, I'm in Naples. You live in Chicago now? Not a lot of golf there today, I'm afraid... ;-)

Speaking of Chicago, though, it's good to see that the NWS has backed off considerably from it's nearly-apocryphal pronouncements yesterday that I posted here. Here's a somewhat encouraging snippet:

AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DESPITE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. ITS POSSIBLE THAT IN JAN 2009
COLD WAVE REFERENCED YESTERDAY...DEEPER SNOW COVER PRESENT PRIOR TO
THE EVENT ENABLED THE COLDER TEMPERATURES DESPITE SIMILAR THERMAL
PROFILES TO THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ORD WILL
COOL ENOUGH TO AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AFTER REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. ROCKFORD`S RECORD WILL REMAIN SAFE.


I'm in Chicago all week.
I see Wunderground has my area back up for a 20% chance of snow tomorrow morning. I'm in Ascension parish- SE LA. We are still awaiting precip...but its coming.
Quoting 853. Tazmanian:
Ohs the nut that messed up the blog The report buttin are missing
everything ok on my end taz
Most of SW La reporting light to moderate snow falling at this time.
Quoting 851. washingtonian115:
Nam showing as much as 2.5 for D.C now..Going back to the original solution of a south east snow storm with it creeping up in the Mid-Atlantic.


Map? Still no idea what to expect here in Charlotte! The models and forecasts seem to be going back and forth between a few inches and a dusting/nothing.
The fact that it's snowing aloft and not reaching the ground yet

I'd lower accums
Quoting 852. washingtonian115:
It's cold as hell outside and cloudy..that's all I have to report for the weather as of now.I'll be back to check if the models have gone snowier for D.C.
we get our ass whooping on the weekend wash early next week after that too
Quoting 847. Torito:
Calling for MAJOR SNOWFALL next week.... Possibly near 2 FT in MD!

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Snow showers around after midnight. Low 23F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 50%. Snowfall around one inch.
Monday
Cloudy with some light snow. High 33F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 50%. Snowfall around one inch.

Tuesday
Cloudy with intermittent snow showers and flurries becoming a steady light snow later. High 32F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 40%. About one inch of snow expected.

Tuesday Night
Snow likely. Low 24F. Winds light and variable. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Wednesday
Snow likely. High around 30F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.

Wednesday Night
Snow in the evening will taper off to light snow overnight. Low 14F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.


I hope this plays out!!!
I hope so to I love the snow.
Freezing rain here in Gautier, Mississippi...
snow may finally move in

Second time in a week and I've never seen freezing rain here before...
Quoting 856. luvtogolf:


I'm in Chicago all week.


And it's too damn cold and being from Florida I don't have the right clothing for this. No golf for me:(
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EST Tuesday 28 January 2014
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:30.3 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:-1.7°F
Dewpoint:-9.2°F
Humidity:70%
Wind:WSW 19 gust 25 mph
Wind Chill: -24
Sorry to ignore the cold front....but on another more serious note....the mountains of california have a very good chance of snow come wednesday and thursday
Quoting 858. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
everything ok on my end taz




Not on my end the report but ins are all messing
Very very light sleet drizzle starting here in Katy TX. Patio temp 34
Quoting 871. MsLoriG:
Very very light sleet drizzle starting here in Katy TX. Patio temp 34
it will be over first for you before the rest along the gulf

Im up on the Eastern Shore of MD. Just like the last 2 "snow events" they keep moving our totals up. But the atmosphere here is so incredibly dry I don't see how we get much if anything. All the snow we have had so far this season has been granular size. Snowed for half a day last week. And hard, but it was like dust. They were calling for up to a foot and we got maybe 2 inches.

Perhaps this storm coming from the south brings more moisture into the atmosphere. It would be nice to see a significant snow event, just cant see it happening.
Quoting 864. hericane96:
Freezing rain here in Gautier, Mississippi...

Is it actually starting to accrue? Air temperatures are not yet showing 31-32F temperatures right on the gulf coast. They could be slightly behind with the evaporative cooling, however.
Long time tropical lurker here-live in Raleigh but grew up in Wilmington-what is the latest thinking on ice being a problem there? Hoping my nephew gets nothing but fluffy snow to play in!
855AM Central- Heavy sleet in Crowley, Louisiana
Quoting 869. ricderr:
Sorry to ignore the cold front....but on another more serious note....the mountains of california have a very good chance of snow come wednesday and thursday
Yeah, parts of the Sierras may see their first real snowfall in six weeks, which should help--though, obviously, far more is needed to make the drought go away...
It snowed enough this morning to cancel classes here at UNCA. Email I got is subjected "Classes cancelled because of surprise snow"...
880. skook
Live Video news out of Jackson MS.

Link
HRRR gives me less snow and it's fairly accurate
Quoting 875. ScottLincoln:

Is it actually starting to accrue? Air temperatures are not yet showing 31-32F temperatures right on the gulf coast. They could be slightly behind with the evaporative cooling, however.


I know thought it was wierd, but icicles are forming on the carport so it must be 32..
Quoting 882. hericane96:


I know thought it was wierd, but icicles are forming on the carport so it must be 32..

If icicles are forming then it would be freezing rain; you've just cooled below freezing due to evaporative cooling and the observation stations haven't caught up yet.

Have you reported to NWS via Facebook/spotter report form/mPING?
Interesting to note that a large portion of the Bloggers on here (due to the tropical storm focus during the Summer and Dr. Master's history as a hurricane met) are from the Gulf and Southern States and "reporting" on this unique event for the South.  This is real time reporting at it's best...............................
Quoting 883. ScottLincoln:

If icicles are forming then it would be freezing rain; you've just cooled below freezing due to evaporative cooling and the observation stations haven't caught up yet.

Have you reported to NWS via Facebook/spotter report form/mPING?


Just sent it in didn't know they had that until you said something..
Quoting 885. hericane96:


Just sent it in didn't know they had that until you said something..

Thanks. The more reports, the better. It helps forecasters refine their information and is also coordinated with local officials.

Unfortunately, sometimes we do not get enough reports. Especially of flooding or low-end wind damage. People just experience it enough that they assume it isn't unusual and don't report it. Without the information, it makes the warning decisions tougher and also can skew statistics in the databases of weather events.

The mPING project is also very helpful and probably one of the easiest ways to help the NWS. It allows you to use the GPS in your mobile phone to quickly send in updates for your exact location regarding different types of precipitation. They are storing the reports in a database to later compare to radar data and model data to improve our precip typing algorithms.
Quoting 878. Neapolitan:
Yeah, parts of the Sierras may see their first real snowfall in six weeks, which should help--though, obviously, far more is needed to make the drought go away...


Nea, ...talking about cold weather???? Are you OK? :)
It's snowing hard in west central Louisiana. But if you try to pick it up to make a snowball it more like picking up ice crystals. Temp is 21 degrees.

Quoting 861. GeorgiaStormz:
The fact that it's snowing aloft and not reaching the ground yet

I'd lower accums
Don't get so hasty. This was expected and snow was not expected to fall till 11am. Still got time.
any reports of power outages so far?..its going to be a very active 2 days till this gets outta here...
Duke energy NC/SC power outages so far.........


County

Outages

Total Outages: 365
ALAMANCE, NC 4
CABARRUS, NC 1
CATAWBA, NC 7
CLEVELAND, NC 1
DAVIE, NC 1
DURHAM, NC 3
FORSYTH, NC 5
GRAHAM, NC 1
GUILFORD, NC 2
MECKLENBURG, NC 168
ROWAN, NC 51
RUTHERFORD, NC 1
STANLY, NC 1
SURRY, NC 1
UNION, NC 9
ANDERSON, SC 3
GREENVILLE, SC 11
PICKENS, SC 94
YORK, SC 1
Total Outages: 365





« Back to Large Map
I WANT SNOW!!! I WANT SNOW!!!I WANT SNOW!!! I WANT SNOW!!!I WANT SNOW!!!I WANT SNOW!!!
894. etxwx
Quoting 886. ScottLincoln:

Thanks. The more reports, the better. It helps forecasters refine their information and is also coordinated with local officials.

Unfortunately, sometimes we do not get enough reports. Especially of flooding or low-end wind damage. People just experience it enough that they assume it isn't unusual and don't report it. Without the information, it makes the warning decisions tougher and also can skew statistics in the databases of weather events.


Question for Scott: the choices on the NWS Lake Charles report form are snow or freezing rain...we have sleet (chunky ice bits). It's accumulated on the ground a bit but not on tree limbs like ice, so I can't really really say it's an icing event, nor is it really snow. For reporting purposes is sleet classified as snow?
Florida - Alabama State Line west of Pensacola The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Warning for Bay County and Northwest Florida counties until Noon this Wednesday, January 29th. Updated weather advisories on NewsChannel 7.

All branches of Army Aviation Center Fedferal Credit Union will be closing at 1:00 pm today (Tuesday) and will be closed all day on Wednesday. We will re-open at regular business hours on Thursday,

All WALTON County Schools are closed Tuesday, January 28th and Wednesday, January 29th due to freezing rain, ice and hazardous road conditions.

Delta Airlines is cancelling all flights in and out of Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport ay West Bay, Okaloosa County ((Eglin ) and Pensacola effective at 10:00 AM Tuesday morning. Airport officials say the Delta decision is based on the possibility of winter weather here but the effects the weather is having on airports in the rest of the country. 10:00 AM Tuesday will be the last outbound flights and 1:30 PM will be last incoming flights for Delta. No word yet from Southwest.

A message from HOLMES COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Due to the possibility of frozen roads and the hazardous driving conditions they could cause, we have decided to cancel school on Wednesday and Thursday (Jan. 29-30). All athletic and after-school events have been cancelled for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. School should resume on Friday, Jan. 31. All other Holmes County Offices will be open at this time.

Florida Department of Health in Okaloosa County Open Tuesday & Wednesday

OKALOOSA COUNTY, Fla. – The Florida Department of Health in Okaloosa County will remain open on Tuesday, Jan. 28 and Wednesday, Jan. 29. Client services at the Fort Walton Beach and Crestview locations will maintain regular operating hours. Clients who need to reschedule or cancel appointments, should call (850) 833-9240.

Northwest Florida State College and Okaloosa County schools will be closed Tuesday and Wednesday due to expected hazardous weather.

Destin Youth Programs Canceled Tuesday, Jan. 28, and Wed., Jan. 29. All City of Destin Recreation youth programs are canceled Tuesday, Jan. 28, and Wednesday, Jan. 29, because of weather-related safety concerns.

BILOXI, Miss. – The Department of Veterans Affairs Gulf Coast Veterans Health Care System has cancelled all Veterans’ medical appointments at its Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola, and Eglin Air Force Base medical facilities through Jan. 29, due to the anticipated impact of the winter storm on safety and transportation. These VA facilities will be closed Jan. 28-29. The Biloxi VA emergency room will be open.

WALTON AREA CHAMBER of COMERCE - Due to the winter storm forecasted for tomorrow and Wednesday, we have rescheduled the Annual Gala for Tuesday, February 4th. The Gala will be held at the Linkside Conference Center in Sandestin with registration beginning at 5:30. Please call the chamber office at 267-0683, if you have any questions. We apologize for any inconvenience
NAM at 24 hours

Quoting 886. ScottLincoln:

Thanks. The more reports, the better. It helps forecasters refine their information and is also coordinated with local officials.

Unfortunately, sometimes we do not get enough reports. Especially of flooding or low-end wind damage. People just experience it enough that they assume it isn't unusual and don't report it. Without the information, it makes the warning decisions tougher and also can skew statistics in the databases of weather events.


Thanks for the information... The stations just must be behind.. We don't experiance this often down here, afraid a lot of people down here don't know how to take the right precautions to stay safe.. Only supposed to get worse as the day goes on, half an inch of ice will put citys down here at a stand still.. Hope for more of a sleet snow event, but being near the warm gulf it'll be hard to do..
Fort Polk, West Central Louisiana

Fort Polk MWR

28/0838 hrs. - The Ft. Polk DES announced road conditions on Ft. Polk are currently at BLACK. NOTE: The following roads will be closed: Chaffe @ Exchange (re-route traffic to Texas Ave) and Bellrichard @ 467 (re-route around Magnolia Road). Signs will be placed at those locations listed above. Normal dispatch procedures are in effect. Patrols will be stationed at the fire station/gates and will respond if calls are received. Black- Extremely dangerous, life threatening conditions. Roads are covered with hard packed snow or ice and possibly unplowed. Heavy snowfall and/or high winds causing zero visibility are occurring or expected. All vehicle traffic operations are suspended except for police, fire, medical DPW snow removal and service vehicles and other operations in support of national defense. Tire chains must be mounted on tactical military vehicles if the vehicles are authorized tire chains per the appropriate vehicle operators manual.
Icing up on the Crystal Coast in NC.
Question for the Northerners (or others)....................Can you use a regular metal or plastic carpenters spatula to remove-scrape ice from your car windshield without doing any damage to the window (that's all I have around the house in Florida)..........
...WINTER STORM UPDATE...
...WINTER STORM CREATING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

AT 8 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. IN THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS
LIGHT SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE HIGHWAYS
84 AND 98 CORRIDOR...THE PRECIPITATION WAS PRIMARILY MIXED FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...WITH A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES FROM
BROOKHAVEN. AREAS OF HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE INDICATED BY
RADAR AND REPORTED FROM EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS IN THE
AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 84 AND INTERSTATE 20.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED FROM BROOKHAVEN TO NATCHEZ TO HARRISONBURG LOUISIANA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND THEN
SNOW FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY GOES ON. HOWEVER...MIXED SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE THAT OCCURS.

ROAD CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AS EXTREMELY POOR IN THE AREA FROM
INTERSTATE 20 SOUTH...AND TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE AREA WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING...SO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE BECOMING ICED OVER...EVEN ON
WELL TRAVELED HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES. LESS TRAVELED SECONDARY ROADS
WILL ALSO BECOME ICY IN PARTS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. IN THE JACKSON METRO AREA...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ARE BEING REPORTED AS ICED OVER...ESPECIALLY IN HINDS AND
RANKIN COUNTIES. NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR MEDIA SOURCES AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEB...SOCIAL MEDIA...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

$$

AEG
Quoting 900. weathermanwannabe:
Question for the Northerners (or others)....................Can you use a regular metal or plastic carpenters spatula to remove-scrape ice from your car windshield without doing any damage to the window (that's all I have around the house in Florida)..........


As a Floridian (I'm from Floriduh!), when deployed to Maryland last Christmas, I used an Eagle customer card. Yup, heavy, stiff plastic from anything works.
Remember for our Southern bloggers who don't know, put Sodium Chloride (salt) on snow, but Calcium Chloride on ice. For real.
Quoting 818. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


since you are not using your beautiful world, can I borrow it? :) love the new one.
Quoting 894. etxwx:


Question for Scott: the choices on the NWS Lake Charles report form are snow or freezing rain...we have sleet (chunky ice bits). It's accumulated on the ground a bit but not on tree limbs like ice, so I can't really really say it's an icing event, nor is it really snow. For reporting purposes is sleet classified as snow?

I would say do "Freezing Rain/Icing" but in the "Additional Information" box, be sure to specify that the accumulations were of sleet and not freezing rain glaze.

That's probably the closest category, as sleet and freezing rain are fairly similar, just different in that sleet freezes before it touches objects. It's a fine line with regards to how deep and cold the near surface freezing air is.
From 911 dispatcher west central Louisiana to facebook:

Just got a call from the State Superintendent of Vernon Parish HWY Dept. (Yes Tommy Jr). And he ask me to put on facebook PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE STAY AT HOME. The road conditions are HAZARDOUS. There has been 2 car accident, because of the freezing rain and sleet build up on the roads with ice. He was coming off HYW 10 just know and was sliding. PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS stay safe. Also PLEASE PRAY for our DOTD out there traveling the roads to keep us safe.

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS...INCLUDING FIRST RESPONDERS.
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
14z RAP nukes Eastern NC with 1.0 QPF and we got ratios of 12:1 to 15:1... could be a foot of snow somewhere among I-95? We'll see.
Quoting 900. weathermanwannabe:
Question for the Northerners (or others)....................Can you use a regular metal or plastic carpenters spatula to remove-scrape ice from your car windshield without doing any damage to the window (that's all I have around the house in Florida)..........

Probably your best bet is to warm up the car for a while, then the ice will more easily break off in a few chunks.
THIS WINTER WEATHER IS MOVING TOO SLOW FOR O GET TO HAMMOND.
WHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!
Quoting 911. Andrebrooks:
THIS WINTER WEATHER IS MOVING TOO SLOW FOR O GET TO HAMMOND.
WHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!





That was. Not. Needed Take a chill pill
Quoting 891. Andrebrooks:
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!



Stop the. Trolling. Plzs.
Quoting 910. ScottLincoln:

Probably your best bet is to warm up the car for a while, then the ice will more easily break off in a few chunks.
yes when i lived in ny we would turn the heat on in the car and softened up the ice on the windshield,in a bit it would slide off
well today is the last day for 70 temps till the end of week here..
I am witnessing snow flakes in Collage Park GA (Just south of Downtown Atlanta). Snow is really starting to break through the small dry layer, just on time as well.
Quoting 881. GeorgiaStormz:
HRRR gives me less snow and it's fairly accurate

We're getting flurries in W. Forsyth. Hopefully, it will pick up.
Chattanooga, TN

Sent out a weather notice company wide yesterday evening (office of 300-400). Yesterday evening, that forecast was 30% chance of flurries.

Woke up this morning to a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 to 2 inches. Got a lot of people here at work a bit pissed at me. 1/2 inch and continuing...
Quoting 917. hurricanehunter27:
I am witnessing snow flakes in Collage Park GA (Just south of Downtown Atlanta). Snow is really starting to break through the small dry layer, just on time as well.
Thankfully. I wrote down 0.18 QRF for KATL for WxChallenge.
News Release: Florida Highway Patrol

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – With a winter storm warning posted for portions of North Florida, the Florida Highway Patrol urges motorists in affected areas to prepare for the possibility of adverse driving conditions. National Weather Service forecasts show a severe cold front moving into Florida, bringing with it the possibility of freezing rain and snow resulting in hazardous driving conditions for motorists.

The Patrol offers the following tips for driving in this type of weather conditions:


•Stay put. Avoid driving, if at all possible. The safest place to be is off the roads.

•Slow down. When roads are icy, vehicles don’t have the traction required to stop quickly.

•Stay alert. When the temperature is near freezing, the roadway may look wet when in fact ice is forming.

•Remember that bridges and overpasses are more prone to freezing in these types of conditions.

•Don’t attempt to pass slower vehicles.

•Leave plenty of space between your vehicle and the one in front of you.

•Gently apply your brakes and accelerate at a slow speed.

•Be patient and courteous. Driving in adverse weather conditions can be stressful.

•Remember to dial *FHP (347) from your cell phone if you are on the road and need assistance.




------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


By: Bailey Myers
January 27th, 2014

Tallahassee FL- Freezing rain could lead to slick roads, as well, black ice is nothing to mess around with.

Several local communities, like Tallahassee are already prepping. You won't see any salt trucks. You can, however, expect to see a truck spreading sand.

Tallahassee Public Works Operation Manager, Mike Scheiner told us, "We will fill that with sand and have it available in case we get calls about bridges icing over or steeply sloped roads icing over that we need to cover with sand to provide more traction."

We're told Leon County and the Florida Department of Transportation are prepping sand trucks as well, for the impending weather.
Quoting 887. Grothar:


Nea, ...talking about cold weather???? Are you OK? :)
Where've you been? I talk about cold weather all the time--including three times today already. I guess people wee what they want to see... ;-)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM AND HOW FAR NORTHWEST ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY REACH. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A PERIOD OF SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
What is the latest on the storm. I read that Superbowl weather will be good. The Dolphins will like that, seeing as they will be in the stands watching.
926. etxwx
Quoting 906. ScottLincoln:

I would say do "Freezing Rain/Icing" but in the "Additional Information" box, be sure to specify that the accumulations were of sleet and not freezing rain glaze.


Thanks for the help, Scott. It never occurred to me to send in reports from out here in the boondocks but I will now.

Where do I report a bull-sicle? :)

Quoting 922. Neapolitan:
Where've you been? I talk about cold weather all the time--including three times today already. I guess people wee what they want to see... ;-)


It's very warm here today :)
Civil Emergency Message sent out for the ice and snow in Central Alabama.
Morning, Anyone in the Mobile area. Hows the weather there. I have a truck on the way. TIA
Quoting 849. air360:
Yep I'm in the same county (carteret) as absurfer - we already have a solid coat of ice on cars. Gonna be a long day.
Quick question - probably a dumb one - on the models we can see the 850line and different temps at different heights....how would one do that in between model runs? Like is it possible to see if the upper air is currently getting more conducive for snow or less? Just wondering if it is possible to monitor it at all in hopes we might move toward snow and not ice

EDIT: I suppose RAP would be the most logical choice as it updates hourly...duh
did you see the nws update in from 1/4 to 1/3 of ice with 2 to 4 inches of snow its interesting that dewpoints are very low still would not be surprised to see more snow than forecasted
Quoting 929. severstorm:
Morning, Anyone in the Mobile area. Hows the weather there. I have a truck on the way. TIA
I'm in mobile, light drizzle or freezing rain in my location
Someone earlier mentioned long term forecast of a major snow storm for Maryland. Can someone direct me to the page you all use for models? Gracias
Quoting 931. mobhurricane2011:
I'm in mobile, light drizzle or freezing rain in my location
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
The dry layer north of Atlanta seems to have completely broken down based on the snow reports starting to come in from Cobb County.In my current area just south of downtown it seems to be holding a bit stronger with only a few flakes so far making it. I have no idea about Atlanta itself but if the dry layer is still in place in that area it should break down in the next hour.
from the NWS, Wilmington, NC..Meterologists that are having to forecast for the coastal areas of SC/NC are putting those skills to work..

THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE VERY
DEFINITION OF THE TERM WINTRY MIX WILL BE ON DISPLAY TODAY AS A
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION PLAYS ITSELF OUT. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT IT WILL STALL WELL OFFSHORE AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS
FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW
POST-FROPA OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TURNS NORTHEAST...PRODUCING
AN OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WITH A RESULTANT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN
AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WHETHER IT WILL PRECIP
IS NOT AN ISSUE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM. THE FORM THIS PRECIPITATION TAKES
ON...HOWEVER...IS THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE.
All I got was ice. Campus is still open too.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...CENTRAL AND SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN
AL...AND PART OF WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281123Z - 281630Z

SUMMARY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY
SLEET ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA BY 12Z WITH
SLEET PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING. A SIMILAR TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EWD OVER MUCH OF SRN MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SRN AL
BY 18Z AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THESE AREAS FROM W-E.

MEANWHILE...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE AFTER 15Z OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SERN LA...EXCLUDING AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SERN
LA...WITH FREEZING RAIN ALSO THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER FAR SERN
MS...FAR SWRN-SRN AL AND ADJACENT WRN FL PANHANDLE. FAR SERN
LA...CLOSER TO THE COAST...SHOULD BE REMAIN RAIN THROUGH 18Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ABOVE 32 F.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED
OVER E TX/NRN LA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A 06Z RESEARCH
SOUNDING AT TEXAS A&M /COLLEGE STATION TX/ INDICATED A WARM LAYER
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 750-850 MB WITH THE 800 MB TEMPERATURE AT +6-7
C. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE RESULTED IN A SATURATION PROCESS
BELOW 850 MB. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITHIN AN INITIALLY DRIER...COLD
AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA. AS THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
SHIFTS EWD THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN
A VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SLEET THAN
FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH SWRN-CENTRAL LA. A SIMILAR
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER
EWD OVER SRN MS TO SWRN AL BETWEEN 15-18Z.

MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SERN LA THROUGH FAR SERN MS...AND FAR SWRN-SRN AL
AND ADJACENT WRN FL PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. LOW
LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE PROLONGED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THESE
AREAS...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO SUB-FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PRESENT.

..PETERS.. 01/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...S HV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30529479 31049343 31519180 31749060 31858916 32278784
32238626 31418550 30688640 30328715 30228885 29868992
29609066 29489163 29579264 29769347 29589430 29519468
29589502 30089538 30529479
Light accumulation of Freezing rain in Mobile

edit--- I see where someone else already beat me to it... Why can i not upload photos from facebook anymore. I guess i need to find another photo site to embed



Haha. The second the clock it 11 I started to receive steady light snow. NWS got the timing down to a second.
Quoting 939. hurricanehunter27:
Haha. The second the clock it 11 I started to receive steady light snow. NWS got the timing down to a second.


????? Its not 11 o'clock yet. :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Light freezing rain just starting to reach the Western Florida Panhandle.....I would stay off of the roads and especially I-10; the Florida stretch is poorly drained in many areas and puddles up during heavy rains causing hydro-sliding a many locations.  Those same spots are going to freeze overnight.

I-10 might not be where to want to driving between later today and into tomorrow unless you a comfortable slipping and sliding on the free-way.
Quoting 926. etxwx:


Thanks for the help, Scott. It never occurred to me to send in reports from out here in the boondocks but I will now.

Especially away from populated areas... that's where we'd need the reports the most because it is much less likely we'll have news media, emergency managers, or police officers in the area to report inclement weather and/or weather-related damage.
I have a dusting