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Record -50°F confirmed for Maine; is this inconsistent with global warming?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2009

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine, a -50°F reading taken on January 16, has been confirmed as real, according to a press release issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service this week. The new record occurred at 7:15 a.m. Jan. 16 at a remote river gauge in Big Black River (see USGS image at right), about four miles from the Canadian border. It ties the record set in 1933 for New England's lowest temperature, set at Bloomfield, Vermont. The old Maine record was -48°F, set in 1925 at Van Buren. All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set occurred January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

All-time record lows are inconsistent with global warming, right?
An impressive cold wave hit the northern and eastern portions of the U.S. January 11-18, with 17 states reporting record daily lows. In addition to the coldest temperature ever measured in Maine, one station, Waterloo, Iowa, tied its 1962 record for all-time coldest temperature, when the mercury hit -34°F on January 16. If global warming is occurring, we should not expect to see very many all-time city or state records being set. The nation's January-December average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.12°F per decade since 1895, and at a faster rate of 0.41°F per decade during the last 50 years. This 2°F rise in temperature has undoubtedly allowed more high temperature than low temperature records to be broken. However, this is a low enough amount of warming that there should still be a few cold temperature records being set, since the weather is so highly variable.

The statistics support this position. The Waterloo, Iowa mark was only the second time this decade that an all-time record cold temperature has been set at a major U.S. city. The cities I consider are the 303 cities author Chris Burt tracks in his excellent Extreme Weather book. The cites chosen were selected based primarily on their length of weather records (all the records go back to at least 1948, with most going back to the 1800s), and include all the largest cities in the U.S. The only other all-time coldest temperature record set at these cities this decade was the -44°F recorded in Grand Forks, North Dakota on 1/30/2004. By contrast, 49 all-time high temperature marks have been set this decade (Figure 1).

Perhaps a better judge of the impact of global warming on extreme temperatures, though, is to look at record warmest and coldest months. Month-long records are more reflective of the climate than an extreme event lasting just a few days. No all-time coldest month records were at any U.S. cities during January 2009, and it was not even close. Despite the cold blast of Jan. 11-18, the month of January finished out above average in temperature for the lower 48 states. So far this decade, no U.S. major city has set an all-time coldest month record. The last time a coldest month record was set occurred in January, 1994 when Caribou Maine and Bayfield, Wisconsin recorded their coldest month. By contrast, there have been 61 all-time warmest month records set in those same 303 cities between 2000 and 2008 (Figure 1). The summer of 2007 alone saw 42 all-time high (or warmest month ever) records. Just one record was set in the summer of 2008.


Figure 1. Minimum and maximum temperatures records for the U.S. for 303 major stations. The image has been updated through January 2009 to include the one record low set that month. The original version of this image was for 2007, and I modified it to update it for four changes made in the 2008 data. The numbers for the decade of the 2000s are correct, but there are four (out of 606) records that need to be subtracted off some of the earlier decades. Note the the 1930s were the most extreme decade for total number of records set, but the 1920s were the least extreme. U.S. weather has a high degree of variability from decade to decade. Image credit: Chris Burt, Extreme Weather.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
There have been 110 all-time high temperature or all-time warmest month records set at the 303 major U.S. cities this decade, and only two such low temperature records set. Is this disparity due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

My next post will be sometime Tue-Thu.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Victoria fire death toll climbs to 189

THE gruesome reality of the search through the rubble of Victoria's fires has become clearer as police admit it is difficult to determine whether remains come from one person, or even if they are human.

Police today announced the death toll from the savage fires had risen to 189, only eight more than their last update on Thursday, and would continue to rise.

The revised toll included 40 from the hamlet of Strathewen from its population of 200, while 36 have so far been confirmed dead in Marysville which is expected to lose 100 of its 500 residents.

While 10 more victims were identified in Strathewen and 21 more in Marsyville, the number of dead has gone down in some areas after remains were fully identified.

The toll in the Churchill fire in Gippsland dropped from 21 to 10.

"In some cases what we are dealing with is just bones. It may be that we've initially thought that was more than one body, but when it has gone to the coroner, they have confirmed it is actually one," a police spokeswoman said.

Huge task

Emergency Services Commissioner Bruce Esplin defended the delay in issuing the latest update, saying that identification of remains was complex and difficult.

The most important thing was that families of the missing were given correct information, Mr Esplin said.

"The sensitivity is to get it right," he said.

"It's a huge task and it's a hugely sensitive task for the police, fire services and the defence force that are supporting them in recovering remains and appropriately identifying remains.

"And it's most important that the families get the right information and they get that information correctly, that there are no mistakes made."

Focus on Marysville

Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe said some remains found may never be identified due to the extensive injuries caused by the fire, which will make it tough to know the exact death toll.

"Fire causes extensive disfigurement to bodies. Fire causes extensive damage, and it is a very difficult process in some cases to actually determine whether the remains are human remains," he said.

Mr Walshe said the search for victims in open spaces had finished and authorities were now searching burned-out homes for bodies.

He said authorities were now concentrating on searching buildings in the Marysville area.

"We know the numbers will grow ... as to what the number is going to get to, I just think we should await and let it unfold over the next week or 10 days," Mr Walshe said.

The figure also included 128 victims from the Kinglake complex fire, including 33 from the town of Kinglake itself and 20 from Steels Creek.

The death toll in the Gippsland town of Callignee dropped from 12 to four.

Two deaths have been recorded from Mudgegonga near Beechworth, one at Bendigo and five have died in hospital.

Mr Walshe said it would still be at least a week until some bushfire-hit roads were open to traffic.

"Marysville we know we will not be able to open up that area for probably another 10-14 days," he said.

Accused arsonist

His comments came the same day court action began against 39-year-old Brendan Sokaluk, from the Gippsland town of Churchill, who is accused of starting the Churchill fire.

Sokaluk did not appear in court, and was remanded in custody to appear at a committal mention on May 26.

He has been charged with one count of arson causing death, one count of intentionally lighting a bushfire and one count of possessing child pornography.

The arson charge carries a maximum penalty of 25 years, with the bushfire charge carrying a maximum penalty of 15 years.

Calm weather on Monday again helped firefighters put in containment lines around the five fires still burning in Victoria.

Department of Sustainability and Environment spokesman Stuart Ord said containment lines surrounded 85 per cent of the Kinglake Murrindindi Complex, while the Bunyip and Beechworth fires were also close to being contained.

Bulldozing work was undertaken near the water catchment areas near Healesville and the Wilson's Promontory fire was still running, but not threatening communities.

Good conditions are forecast for the next two days.
Singer Pink donates $250,000 to Red Cross Bushfire Appeal
Article from: Herald Sun

February 16, 2009 12:00am

PINK, who is set to break records with a 13-night stint at Rod Laver Arena, has dug deep to help the country she calls her second home.

The concert diva is planning to donate $250,000 to the Red Cross Bushfire Appeal, for use in helping rebuild the communities across Victoria devastated by bushfires nine days ago.

She said, "There is little anyone can do at such a long distance away but I wanted to make a tangible expression of support."

Pink's biggest fanbase outside America is in Australia, where she will be touring in May and June this year, and breaking John Farnham's record for most nights at Rod Laver Arena.
ENSO #s are already out for the day..warmed a little



vort~ Heartland institute also brought us all the research that said smoking wasn't bad for us & didn't cause cancer, well back when it was funded by big tobacco. Now it's funded largely by big oil. I've also noticed that nearly everyone over the age of 70 doesn't believe human's pollution has much an impact on the enviroment their grandkids are growing up in or that the artifical candy is causing ADD.
Flooding rain for northern and eastern NSW
Brett Dutschke, Monday February 16, 2009 - 16:54 EDT

There has been a brief lull in rain across northern and eastern NSW but heavy falls are returning, leading to flash flooding, even inland.

Bourke, in the northwest of the state had 198 millimetres of rain on Friday night and is copping another heavy burst again today as thunderstorms form in a pool of cold air. Bourke picked up more than 30mm since early this morning taking their monthly total past 230mm and making it their wettest month in at least 10 years.

In the next 24 to 48 hours rain will develop further east and south and become heavy, causing flash flooding. The likely areas to be flood affected will be the Northwest Slopes and Plains and the area from the Mid North Coast to the South Coast, including Sydney.

The heavy rain for the coast will be mainly due to a low off the north coast which will take rain south as it pumps moist southeasterly winds over the region. Widespread falls of 40 to 80mm are likely, with localised falls of close to 100mm possible about the Hunter.

Parts of the Mid North Coast and Hunter, including Kempsey and Nelson Bay have already had more than 200mm in the last few days, so the coming rain will only increase the flooding problems.

- Weatherzone
Interesting feature in the Caribbean
Got a less than 1% chance of developing but still its an interesting feature for Mid-February.
Quoting IKE:


104 after today. 12 left in February...then 31, 30 and 31=........ 104 at midnight tonight.


Alright 104 days :P I miscounted.
I don't understand Dr. Master's need to explain an isolated event in the context of global warming (to which he is obviously a convert). Why is a one day event of any interest whatsoever in the context of a century of climate change? Who are you trying to convince? The heretics?
Here's the Fireball over Texas,they think it may be Part of the debris from that Satellite Collision last week.

Earth is around 2 billion years old. you show records of just over a 100 years. Now this is what i think. True common sence shows, at one time water was 100 miles inland on the east coast, due to the sand hills, sharks teeth and sea shells. im guessing the ocean at one point was 100 miles inland. People are easily fooled, lets take the year 2000 for example.
I think this global warming is a 20 century cult, and the leaders of it are making BIG money. in about 10 years when we are back in the cold snap again, the FBI might want to investigate just how much money these players made.

This is just my opinion, and i was 100% right in the year 2000.
vort~ Heartland institute also brought us all the research that said smoking wasn't bad for us & didn't cause cancer, well back when it was funded by big tobacco. Now it's funded largely by big oil. I've also noticed that nearly everyone over the age of 70 doesn't believe human's pollution has much an impact on the enviroment their grandkids are growing up in or that the artifical candy is causing ADD.



And all that means what??

The article I posted was about what Former astronaut Harrison Schmitt has to say.

He's a geologist!
I think what he has to say carries a lot more weight than the bought and paid for scientists that might disagree with him.
I don't care how old he is.
He certainly seems to have a clear head and doesn't appear to be suffering from Alzheimer's.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting feature in the Caribbean
Got a less than 1% chance of developing but still its an interesting feature for Mid-February.


Nothing interesting with that feature. Just some cloud debris being exuded from a strong upper level high over inland South America meeting westerlies in the Eastern Caribbean. Been noticing these "features" all season long.
er,,the Plant Earth is around 4.5 Billion years old there Skippy..Link
can u prove that it really is 4.5 or u listening to someone else? skippy
William Smith's nephew and student, John Phillips, later calculated by such means that Earth was about 96 million years old.

The Sun is abut 4.5 billion years old now. It is about 300 degrees hotter and abput 6% greater in radius than when it was first born. ...
who will ever know skippy LOL
Interesting new work to be presented:

"Research so far on global warming and Atlantic hurricanes indicates:

* It is premature to conclude that human activity--particularly greenhouse warming--has had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricanes, and
* Model simulations indicate that 21st century greenhouse warming may lead to greater numbers of very intense Atlantic hurricanes and higher hurricane rainfall rates, but fewer hurricanes overall.

Century-long basin-wide observed records of very intense Atlantic hurricanes are considered unreliable, but tropical storm and hurricane counts have been used as long-term climate indicators. Unadjusted counts of tropical storms show a significant rise from the mid to late 1800s to present, while unadjusted hurricane counts do not, due to the large number of reported hurricanes in the late 1800s.

Analysis of historical ship track records suggests that reporting coverage was likely too sparse to detect all tropical storms, and after adjusting for this bias, tropical storm counts have no significant trend over 1878-2006. "

From Link

This is from Tom Knutson at NOAA GFDL. I doubt anyone can paint a picture of him being a paid shill of the wind energy companies...I mean carbon trade hopefuls...I mean big oil.
Quoting BucknSC:
William Smith's nephew and student, John Phillips, later calculated by such means that Earth was about 96 million years old.

The Sun is abut 4.5 billion years old now. It is about 300 degrees hotter and abput 6% greater in radius than when it was first born. ...
who will ever know skippy LOL

I wanna play too.
So how do you know it's 2 million years old?
Quoting Patrap:
Here's the Fireball over Texas,they think it may be Part of the debris from that Satellite Collision last week.



Its sad, 6 years ago that area of texas 6 year's ago also had a flaming fireball in February, but instead of being space junk it was sadly manned with 7 brave Astronauts on board.
Well..if ya study just a lil astronomy.

One wouldnt have to Google anything about Yellow Main Sequence Stars.

Ya still following..?

oooh..pictures too...!




LOL..
Quoting theshepherd:

I wanna play too.
So how do you know it's 2 million years old?


I just read somewhere thats its presidents Day? if that means you guys are havinga long weekend.. I sure hope Doc changes the blog.. this one is going a bit stir crazy.

At least if The Shep says "I wanna play too.:)" its going to get very interesting.
For the Dogs
The Krewe of Barkus rolls out BatMutt:

The Bark Night Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting feature in the Caribbean
Got a less than 1% chance of developing but still its an interesting feature for Mid-February.

Indeed, the blobs of West Africa last year clearly indicated what was coming.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just read somewhere thats its presidents Day? if that means you guys are havinga long weekend.. I sure hope Doc changes the blog.. this one is going a bit stir crazy.

At least if The Shep says "I wanna play too.:)" its going to get very interesting.

Jump on in, Whale Boy. The water's fine.
Might want to cover your coffee cup and move over a bit pat. There's fixin' to be a mighty big splash if that puppy lands near you.
did u miss the word AROUND? LOL
Quoting theshepherd:

Jump on in, Whale Boy. The water's fine.
Might want to cover your coffee cup and move over a bit pat. There's fixin' to be a mighty big splash if that puppy lands near you.


Thats Chief Big Fish to you SheHerd :)
Quoting Patrap:
Well..if ya study just a lil astronomy.

One wouldnt have to Google anything about Yellow Main Sequence Stars.

Ya still following..?

oooh..pictures too...!




LOL..


"Castora"?! Somebody needs to check their spelling!

Oh, I see, it's supposed to be "Castor A".
Quoting BucknSC:
did u miss the word AROUND? LOL

My bad.
So, how do you know the Earth is AROUND 2 million years old?
You don't have to be specific if that helps.
I'll try to stumble through it. I'm usually open to learning new things about our planet.
LOL
let me set my drag a lil tighter :)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number THREE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
0:00 AM FST February 17 2009
==================================

Special Weather Advisory - Vanuatu

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten-F (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 167.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots in the sector 30 to 120 NM of the center in the northeast quadrant and 30 to 180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared imagery with animation, recent microwave pass and peripheral surface observations.

TD TEN-F lies along the northern periphery of an upper anticyclonic circulation. Outflow is good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere.

Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.35 on LOG10 Spiral yields DT=2.0, MET=1.5 FT is based on MT.

Thus T1.5/2.0/D0.5/ 24 HRS

An upper shortwave trough is currently influencing TD 10F but a long wave trough moving off Australia is going to bring increasing shear as TD TEN-F moves closer to New Caledonia. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass is expected to weaken the system further. TEN-F is expected to be steered southwest as a middle level ridge develops to the southesat. Sea Surface Temperatures is around 28C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with no intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
atmoaggie, Skeyponey
I particularly enjoy your posts. Very different views. But both are well stated and with verifying links.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats Chief Big Fish to you SheHerd :)
Had to go there dent cha?
I thought my operation was our little secret.
Quoting theshepherd:
Had to go there dent cha?
I thought my operation was our little secret.


Thought of the Day :)

"Any ship can be a minesweeper ... once." - Anonymous
Quoting BucknSC:
let me set my drag a lil tighter :)

OK.
So, how do you know the Earth is around 2 million years old?
barney told me lol ...can u rest now?
Quoting theshepherd:

OK.
So, how do you know the Earth is around 2 million years old?


SCIENTIFIC AGE OF THE EARTH

Before analyzing the arguments advanced by creation “scientists” for a very young Earth, I here summarize briefly the evidence that has convinced scientists that the Earth is 4.5 to 4.6 billion years old...... (more)
528. HadesGodWyvern
I am so woefully poor at geography, and your posts are always incentive to broaden my knowledge. Thanks

From the CIA - World Fact Book
Vanuatu : Oceania, group of islands in the South Pacific Ocean, about three-quarters of the way from Hawaii to Australia
Quoting BucknSC:
barney told me lol ...can u rest now?

Almost. Who's Barney?
Quoting theshepherd:

Almost. Who's Barney?

..
Ok 2 billion 4 billion 96 million 100 thousand, the point is .....I see just over a 100 years of records.
Its hard to judge earth on 100 years.. and say humans are harming this plantet. did we cause the ice age? did we cause the flood? some scientist say at 1 point the earth had no water. water was supplied by geysers. was it humans that cause all of this to happen?

Now your pal can call me skippy and what other names he wants.
Most smart people cant use common sense.
hey buck and sometimes you can be so smart your stupid






Be Prepared Link

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all."

Hurricane Season: Are You Prepared?Throughout this Web site, information has been provided regarding actions that you can take based on specific hurricane hazards. The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared. Disaster prevention includes both being prepared as well as reducing damages
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey buck and sometimes you can be so smart your stupid


GASP!! thats from the Centre of the Universe... and we all know he is older then dirt.
Quoting Patrap:
Well..if ya study just a lil astronomy.

One wouldnt have to Google anything about Yellow Main Sequence Stars.

Ya still following..?

oooh..pictures too...!




LOL..
Your made your point in a roundabout way. Gosh, we're pretty small :0
Quoting paratomic:
Your made your point in a roundabout way. Gosh, we're pretty small :0



Yupp..but the Planetary Ego is "Vary" Big
Quoting BucknSC:
Ok 2 billion 4 billion 96 million 100 thousand, the point is .....I see just over a 100 years of records.
Its hard to judge earth on 100 years.. and say humans are harming this plantet. did we cause the ice age? did we cause the flood? some scientist say at 1 point the earth had no water. water was supplied by geysers. was it humans that cause all of this to happen?

Now your pal can call me skippy and what other names he wants.
Most smart people cant use common sense.

Just trying to learn more myself.
MichaelSTL's blog has a lot of information on the subject. He would be more then happy to share comments with you. Thanks for you posts. LOL
Sheesh,
BucknSC has a valid point about using data from 100 years of weather history and ignoring the other however many zillion years.
Have that stir stick in your hot little hands, do ya?
Quoting Patrap:
er,,the Plant Earth is around 4.5 Billion years old there Skippy..Link


I don't know why I even TRIED to read that. SO FAR OVER MY HEAD.. But now I think I know what a YOUNG-EARTHER is (at first I thought it was just like a kid or even like a punk) and I also have a raging head ache. I guess that is what happens when you overstimulate an averge brain!! Kinda like when I try to do crunches and hurt for a week!

But thanks guess my head has had it's workout for the week!
Quoting BucknSC:
William Smith's nephew and student, John Phillips, later calculated by such means that Earth was about 96 million years old.

The Sun is abut 4.5 billion years old now. It is about 300 degrees hotter and abput 6% greater in radius than when it was first born. ...
who will ever know skippy LOL



Google. carbon dating and fossels
Thanks Dr. M; I'm no scientist, and hate to weigh in on the global warming debate when I am not certain who is right, but my "layman" observation, over the years and living in Florida all of my life, is that our winters seem to be less cold (a piece of cake compared to the Northern and Central US)than they were when I was a kid and what I have noticed the most (now that I have lived in North Florida for everal years) is that "Fall" and "Spring" appear definately shorter with not much of a transition.......Local case in point?...In Tallahassee, we have our Annual Springtime Tallahassee festival (held for years in April) when the Azalea's bloom has been at it's best historically, and for the past few years, they have bloomed much earlier (in late February-March) and are usually "gone" by the time of the Festival....Temps have been very moderate the past several weeks and most of my Azaleas in my yard are already sprounting buds as of this past week (and pollen is driving my Wife crazy already).............I would expect, as mentioned by Dr. M., that part of the GW issue, as specified in many scientific reports over recent years, is that temperature extremes (harsh winters and harsh summers with little Fall and Spring transition in-between) will probably be the norm in coming years as "general" climate patterns change. Whether due to geunine GW, or other global climactic impacts, including natural cycles vs. man-made causes, is beyond my pay grade...........WW
And btw shepherd, the 2 million was a typo on my 1st post. should have been 2 around billion
sue me LOL
Wiki stuff --

Following the scientific revolution and the development of radiometric age dating, measurements of lead in uranium-rich minerals showed that some were in excess of a billion years old.[3] The oldest such minerals analysed to date – small crystals of zircon from the Jack Hills of Western Australia – are at least 4.404 billion years old.
part 2

Comparing the mass and luminosity of the Sun to the multitudes of other stars, it appears that the solar system cannot be much older than those rocks. Ca-Al-rich inclusions (inclusions rich in calcium and aluminium) – the oldest known solid constituents within meteorites that are formed within the solar system – are 4.567 billion years old,[7][8] giving an age for the solar system and an upper limit for the age of Earth. It is hypothesised that the accretion of Earth began soon after the formation of the Ca-Al-rich inclusions and the meteorites.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just read somewhere thats its presidents Day? if that means you guys are havinga long weekend.. I sure hope Doc changes the blog.. this one is going a bit stir crazy.

At least if The Shep says "I wanna play too.:)" its going to get very interesting.


I second that notion.

And preferably something non-GW related... (I know, a tall order?) especially since the argument's sophistication now seems to boil down to the following...

If scientist says something against GW, he isn't a real scientist.

If scientist says something for GW, he's taking backhanders and/or being 'unduly' influenced by the powers that be.

So convincing!


lots of rain for CA. possible severe treat mainly hail / heavy rain
Seems GW is a rather tender subject for some

You'll survive it.

Its a Phd's Blog,.. entries,not doctrine on the subject.

The web is a BIG place,you can find equal footing here and opposing views as well...form just having a comment section


Were lucky to have Dr. Masters post on the matter.
In a concise manner with Links to the Studies he refers too.

Were also fortunate to Have Ricky Roods Climate Change Blog as well. You can always find interesting info and banter there as well

Most scientist wouldnt dream nor dare to do what happens here.


So I thank the Good Dr. Masters for what he does,and allows us to do as a whole.

And 1 more thing about this global warming deal, and more hurricanes. wasnt the years 1900-1910 some of our worse years? and why does the gulf states get more attention? Anyone remember hurricane floyed? It flooded eastern NC months after it was gone. I watch weather alot and can recall 3 major hurricanes in the atlantic 1 beind the other in the early 90s all 3 heading to SC and NC 2 moved back out to sea, the last one hit the outer banks
seems were are not having more hurricanes, the tracks are changing.

i could'nt agree more pat well said
Quoting Ossqss:
part 2

Comparing the mass and luminosity of the Sun to the multitudes of other stars, it appears that the solar system cannot be much older than those rocks. Ca-Al-rich inclusions (inclusions rich in calcium and aluminium) – the oldest known solid constituents within meteorites that are formed within the solar system – are 4.567 billion years old,[7][8] giving an age for the solar system and an upper limit for the age of Earth. It is hypothesised that the accretion of Earth began soon after the formation of the Ca-Al-rich inclusions and the meteorites.


Artist rendering of Sol's accretion disk.


555. BucknSC
Yikes!
Gulf states get more recent attention, because of the loss of life and the damage that has ravaged the coast in the last few years. From which they have yet to recover.

We received enough attention after Hugo, - do not want any more.
Floyd was a flooding disaster for NC. The pig carcasses floating on the river was awful. But it was no where near being a Katrina or an Ike.
I was concerned the sea ice extent would flat line when the polar vortex split & went away too soon & it did but I didn't expect this.... I hope someone forgot to smooth data or something..

patrap - awesome pic!




I know i don't miss that cold spell we recently had! We had record cold temps as well. We beat the all time record low in our city few weeks ago with this cold spell!

spring can't come soon enough!



















#1 Website for Tornado & Weather links, All on one site!

www.tornadolinks.com

WWW.TORNADOLINKS.COM

oh great, no drama this morning, just a lot of rain in Calif, and then along comes some polar ice cap melting approaching biblical proportionalities ...
Mother Nature will end up doing whatever she feels like; all we can really do is watch it happening (and speculate, analyze, hypothecize, banter, argue, etc,) as to what the future may bring...Lol
I was concerned the sea ice extent would flat line when the polar vortex split & went away too soon & it did but I didn't expect this.... I hope someone forgot to smooth data or something..

Likewise...all of the above. Maybe this will result in a terrific sensitivity study of ice growth versus [fill in effect of polar vortex split]
I don't know about aproaching biblical.. 2006-7 had a similiar dip when it began it's melting for the year.. most likely it will level more out tomarrow, usually don't see a quick change happen for much longer than this. If that's the case we just start melting a month before we did our minimum year.. Something to watch.

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt
I am now using Google Earth Version 5



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current
atmo~ NASA has some great data on the vortex split. You can see the heat break it in 2, after it rolled across the artic. That's a study in itself. Pretty unprecidented from what I've gathered, atleast the statophere temp changes.. & yeah the ice extent reaction..Should spur some research~ might make one of these kids a good paper too.

Nice to see a little ran on the SE side of Australia too, but the MJO isn't helping them none.
I keep seeing posts about how arctic sea ice 'flatlined' in January. Let's look at the data (from AMSR-E)

January ice extent growth

2009 - 1,384,375 sq.km
2008 - 1,363,125 sq.km (-21,250 sq.km)
2007 - 1,097,656 sq.km (-286,719 sq.km)
2006 - 727,656 sq.km (-656,719 sq.km)
2005 - 976,637 sq.km (-407,738 sq.km)
2004 - 794,832 sq.km (-589,543 sq.km)
2003 - 1,234,175 sq.km (-150,200 sq.km)


Of the last 7 years this January had the greatest gain in sea-ice extent.
Quoting sullivanweather:
I keep seeing posts about how arctic sea ice 'flatlined' in January. Let's look at the data (from AMSR-E)

January ice extent growth

2009 - 1,384,375 sq.km
2008 - 1,363,125 sq.km (-21,250 sq.km)
2007 - 1,097,656 sq.km (-286,719 sq.km)
2006 - 727,656 sq.km (-656,719 sq.km)
2005 - 976,637 sq.km (-407,738 sq.km)
2004 - 794,832 sq.km (-589,543 sq.km)
2003 - 1,234,175 sq.km (-150,200 sq.km)


Of the last 7 years this January had the greatest gain in sea-ice extent.
09 will see its greatest loss its all first year ice that once melting is trigger it will go fast very fast first year ice is slop or slush ice
KOTG,

That all depends on wind/temps/cloud cover in the arctic this upcoming spring/summer. It is likely that sea ice extent will approach the record max to min melt seen last season.
its something we have to wait and see how it turns out and how fast the spring warms
sullivian~ it's on the graph I left earlier, growth flatlines mid to 3rd week in January at the beginning of the vortex split but like you pointed out the rest of Jan had huge gain. The flatline in growth point must be what they are refuring too.
wow~ the data on the sea extent ice graph I left earlier has totally changed, it had looked like it had near free fallen earlier for the last 5 days.. well least it didn't all just tip..
Skye,

Even going by where the graph flat lines the ice extent growth is still on par with the previous 7 years in terms of growth between the 3rd week of January and current time.


In Jan of 2006 the sea ice growth really flat lined between 1/5/06 and 1/22/06 when the total ice growth between those two dates only amounted to ~70,000 sq.km. That's quite astonishing.
WTF... its 6 C outside... and SNOWING????
hhmmm~ actually it looks like someone removed the last 5 days.. before the line stretched over Feb.
Ex-Astronaut: Global Warming Is Bunk

Monday, February 16, 2009
Associated Press

SANTA FE, N.M. %u2014 Former astronaut Harrison Schmitt, who walked on the moon and once served New Mexico in the U.S. Senate, doesn't believe that humans are causing global warming.



"I don't think the human effect is significant compared to the natural effect," said Schmitt, who is among 70 skeptics scheduled to speak next month at the International Conference on Climate Change in New York.

Schmitt contends that scientists "are being intimidated" if they disagree with the idea that burning fossil fuels has increased carbon dioxide levels, temperatures and sea levels.

"They've seen too many of their colleagues lose grant funding when they haven't gone along with the so-called political consensus that we're in a human-caused global warming," Schmitt said.


Dan Williams, publisher with the Chicago-based Heartland Institute, which is hosting the climate change conference, said he invited Schmitt after reading about his resignation from The Planetary Society, a nonprofit dedicated to space exploration.

Schmitt resigned after the group blamed global warming on human activity.

In his resignation letter, the 74-year-old geologist argued that the "global warming scare is being used as a political tool to increase government control over American lives, incomes and decision-making."

Williams said Heartland is skeptical about the crisis that people are proclaiming in global warming.

"Not that the planet hasn't warmed. We know it has or we'd all still be in the Ice Age," he said. "But it has not reached a crisis proportion and, even among us skeptics, there's disagreement about how much man has been responsible for that warming."

Schmitt said historical documents indicate average temperatures have risen by 1 degree per century since around 1400 A.D., and the rise in carbon dioxide is because of the temperature rise.

Schmitt also said geological evidence indicates changes in sea level have been going on for thousands of years. He said smaller changes are related to changes in the elevation of land masses %u2014 for example, the Great Lakes are rising because the earth's crust is rebounding from being depressed by glaciers.

Schmitt, who grew up in Silver City and now lives in Albuquerque, has a science degree from the California Institute of Technology. He also studied geology at the University of Oslo in Norway and took a doctorate in geology from Harvard University in 1964.

In 1972, he was one of the last men to walk on the moon as part of the Apollo 17 mission.

Schmitt said he's heartened that the upcoming conference is made up of scientists who haven't been manipulated by politics.

Of the global warming debate, he said: "It's one of the few times you've seen a sizable portion of scientists who ought to be objective take a political position and it's coloring their objectivity."
Here's a saved version of the graph I posted earlier, the updated (what you now see) just removed past where the fall off began. Perhaps they are reviewing data..
They also forget to add that Jack Schmitt is a Geologist.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Sheesh,
BucknSC has a valid point about using data from 100 years of weather history and ignoring the other however many zillion years.
Have that stir stick in your hot little hands, do ya?


not really.. we can go back many thousands with ice and fossil deposits on the ocean floor.


here is latest image orca
577 MP
That's a typical case in point for the Press for missleading headlines:
He did not say he didn't believe man caused global warming. He said he didn't think our role was "significant compared to natural".

Same as "No Weapons of Mass Destrucuion"
versus "No Weapons of Mass Destruction Found".

The slant is slight, but the slant "is" there and has a completely different meaning.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number FOUR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
6:00 AM FST February 17 2009
==================================

Special Weather Advisory - Vanuatu

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten-F (1000 hPa) located at 19.8S 165.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots in the sector 30 to 120 NM of the center in the northwest quadrant and in the sector 30 to 180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 11 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

TEN-F lies along the northwestern periphery of an upper anticyclonic circulation. Outflow remains good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere.

Dvorak Analysis based on a wrap on 0.30 on LOG10 Spiral yields DT=2.0, MET=PT=1.5. FT based on MET

Thus T1.5/2.0/S0.0/ 24 HRS

An upper short wave trough is currently moving over the system but increasing shear associated with a long wave trough moving off Australia is expected to inhibit development. As TD TEN-F moves closer to New Caledonia, land interaction is expected to weaken the system further. Ten-F is being steered southwest by an upper level ridge to the southeast. Sea surface temperatures is around 28C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with no intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

  • THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD10F UNLESS IT RE-DEVELOPS.
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert #2 (2130z 16FEB)
    ==========================================
    The area of convection (93P/10F) located at 20.0S 165.9E or 150 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates a well defined low level circulation center that has seen a significant increase in banding convection developing towards the center as indicated by a 1720x AMSU-B Pass. The low level circulation center has remained well defined over the past 6 hours but moderate vertical wind shear has allowed the low level circulation center to remain partially exposed with majority of convection in the southern and southeastern periphery but improving. The upper level environment has remained favorable with an anticyclone over the low level circulation center and enhanced poleward outflow caused by a shift in the upper level trough/low northwest of the system. Animated water vapor imagery reflects this improvement with expanding poleward outflow evident over the southern semi-circle. Sea surface temperature is also favorable for further development.

    Maximum sustained winds: 25-30 knots
    Minimal central pressure: 1000 MB

    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
    Quoting Skyepony:
    wow~ the data on the sea extent ice graph I left earlier has totally changed, it had looked like it had near free fallen earlier for the last 5 days.. well least it didn't all just tip..


    Sheesh. Let's hope they always review their numbers, not just when they really look odd.
    Quoting theshepherd:
    577 MP
    That's a typical case in point for the Press for missleading headlines:
    He did not say he didn't believe man caused global warming. He said he didn't think our role was "significant compared to natural".

    Same as "No Weapons of Mass Destrucuion"
    versus "No Weapons of Mass Destruction Found".

    The slant is slight, but the slant "is" there and has a completely different meaning.


    He said, "I don't think the human effect is significant compared to the natural effect,"

    And your point is?

    Causing and having an effect are not nearly the same.

    Just curious.

    Good evening everyone.....!!

    "I don't think the human effect is significant compared to the natural effect," said Schmitt, who is among 70 skeptics scheduled to speak next month at the International Conference on Climate Change in New York.

    Schmitt contends that scientists "are being intimidated" if they disagree with the idea that burning fossil fuels has increased carbon dioxide levels, temperatures and sea levels.

    "They've seen too many of their colleagues lose grant funding when they haven't gone along with the so-called political consensus that we're in a human-caused global warming," Schmitt said.


    Orca sounds like your having Global Warming conditions........LOL
    Check Redoubt seismic graphs - AkSnowLvr Blog
    Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
    2009-02-16 13:25:29

    Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. No eruption has occurred. Volcanic tremor with variable amplitudes is ongoing. Beginning at about 9:00 AM AKST today, the tremor amplitude increased and remains elevated, though still below the highest levels seen during the current period of unrest.

    Web camera images are obscured by snowy conditions.
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Check Redoubt seismic graphs - AkSnowLvr Blog


    KEH sorry didn't mean to double post as i was just looking at it...wow is it active.....
    Tampa - Great minds think alike.
    And sometimes ours do too!
    Something might be happening on Redoubt...it could be coming....
    577. MisterPerfect 8:23 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
    "Ex-Astronaut: Global Warming Is Bunk"?????

    Monday, February 16, 2009
    Associated Press

    ...............................................

    That was my point MisterPerfect.
    64 and breezy here in West Palm. Great weather!!!
    Hi everyone!
    Thanks for posting Aksnowlvr's blog, very interesting to see the increase in seismic activity there.
    The webcam picture from the Redoubt hut is quite obscure. Anyone knows what's going on there? Just bad weather and minimal visibility?
    How about the volcano in Columbia? That one being so close to the equator~ if it blows big enough, could effect the world's weather for a few years..
    Quoting taistelutipu:
    Hi everyone!
    Thanks for posting Aksnowlvr's blog, very interesting to see the increase in seismic activity there.
    The webcam picture from the Redoubt hut is quite obscure. Anyone knows what's going on there? Just bad weather and minimal visibility?
    I think the webcam has snow on it. I am sure someone will correct this if I am wrong. ;)
    thanks. I forgot it's in Alaska. *lol*

    Btw, about the recent tremors shown on the helicorder, there could be other reasons for it:

    I see lots of activity on the helicorder for volcano _______. Why don't I see any earthquakes?

    * There are several possibilities: (1) the helicorder is showing wind or electronic noise and not earthquakes; (2) the review of these earthquakes has not yet been completed by an AVO seismologist so they are not yet in the catalog; (3) There are many types of seismic activity at volcanoes other than earthquakes. It is possible that the seismic activity consists of volcanic tremor, explosions or rock falls; or (4) the earthquakes are large enough to be detected, but too small to be located.


    (from the FAQ section on Earthquakes on the AVO site - scroll down for FAQ)
    Quoting Skyepony:
    How about the volcano in Columbia? That one being so close to the equator~ if it blows big enough, could effect the world's weather for a few years..


    Sky you are so correct.....it could really screw up weather big time......
    Quoting Skyepony:
    How about the volcano in Columbia? That one being so close to the equator~ if it blows big enough, could effect the world's weather for a few years..


    true
    hmmmm.......

    Its intresting to note that the long-range CFS does not develop much in the GOM or CAR this hurricane season.
    But has 2 Nasty Fish/Cape Verde Hurricanes in September.
    Quoting taistelutipu:
    thanks. I forgot it's in Alaska. *lol*

    Btw, about the recent tremors shown on the helicorder, there could be other reasons for it:

    I see lots of activity on the helicorder for volcano _______. Why don't I see any earthquakes?

    * There are several possibilities: (1) the helicorder is showing wind or electronic noise and not earthquakes; (2) the review of these earthquakes has not yet been completed by an AVO seismologist so they are not yet in the catalog; (3) There are many types of seismic activity at volcanoes other than earthquakes. It is possible that the seismic activity consists of volcanic tremor, explosions or rock falls; or (4) the earthquakes are large enough to be detected, but too small to be located.


    (from the FAQ section on Earthquakes on the AVO site - scroll down for FAQ)

    Go to aksnow's blog. Check out the seismogram signatures I posted. See "Tectonic". Compare.
    So these little USHCN beauties are not impacted by the "urban heat island effect"? Maybe it should be called the "lennox/carrier/asphalt/concrete effect"?

    http://www.surfacestations.org/odd_sites.htm

    It's not wise to use a model such as the CFS to looks 4-7 months into the future. It's just used as guidance and generally flip-flops. It doesn't have the resolution to be very accurate. The Glosea, ECMWF, or NICAM would probably have better guidance; but, even so, its still the long range.
    Quoting Drakoen:
    It's not wise to use a model such as the CFS to looks 4-7 months into the future. It's just used as guidance and generally flip-flops. It doesn't have the resolution to be very accurate. The Glosea, ECMWF, or NICAM would probably have better guidance; but, even so, its still the long range.


    Did You know it predicted Hurricane Ike 3636 hours out?
    Quoting SevereHurricane:


    Did You know it predicted Hurricane Ike 3636 hours out?


    Blind squirrel found a nut?!? Cool.
    Quoting SevereHurricane:


    Did You know it predicted Hurricane Ike 3636 hours out?


    Did it do that run to run day to day? Within the exact period of time?


    Quoting atmoaggie:


    Blind squirrel found a nut?!? Cool.


    Exactly my thoughts.
    It was actualy creepy when Ike Hit Texas because it was forcasted many months in advance.
    When it happened, I was like no freakin way!
    For some reason I thought that post might draw a response from Drak..although I do agree it is silly to think any model or whatever can predict a precise storm at a precise time seven months in advance...my local 10-day forecast has changed 10 times in the last 10 days..
    Do you have a link to the Glosea?
    Even if it isn't that accurate it is still fun to look 9 months in advance.
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    For some reason I thought that post might draw a response from Drak..although I do agree it is silly to think any model or whatever can predict a precise storm at a precise time seven months in advance...my local 10-day forecast has changed 10 times in the last 10 days..


    lol. I'm pretty much on here everyday, just don't really feel the need to post. 90% of the time you guys are arguing and its more or less the same people.
    I'm sure you don't mean arguing about GW ..we all pretty much agree on that...:)
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    I'm sure you don't mean arguing about GW ..we all pretty much agree on that...:)


    That's just barely scraping the surface.
    Looking forward to your posts this season Drak
    I don't see anything spewing out of Galeras today..
    Quoting Drakoen:


    lol. I'm pretty much on here everyday, just don't really feel the need to post. 90% of the time you guys are arguing and its more or less the same people.


    Yes...too much AGW and GW altercations here
    Going to be really interesting to compare posts between Drak, Future, and the other smart bloggers on systems this upcoming season...and of course JFV
    Geoffrey

    What happened to JFV?

    Why does he not post here anymore?....I know he is no longer banned
    Don't know why he has not recently posted..His ban must be off by now...Probally just a seasonal poster..Surprised not to see Extreme posting..always liked reading his thoughts...
    here's the advisories. Turns out that is ash coming out of the one in Ecuator. The columian one is spewing too just can't see it by satellite. The long animation was neat. Looking through advisories the whole area looks somewhat unseddled.
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    Looking forward to your posts this season Drak


    I'm looking forward to posting this season.
    I am still developing a couple of projects.

    My next video will probably be about "The formation of Supercellular storms" I will go in depth on how these mesoscale events occur.

    This is my commercial for my channel..hope you like

    My guess on the fish storms would be the models insistance on a extreme el nino for summer which would tend to cause fish storms.

    Quoting Drakoen:


    I'm looking forward to posting this season.


    Yes me too.

    I will try to augment my knowledge about meteorology daily.

    623. futuremet
    Wow - great visuals! Well done.
    624

    Trough vs ridges....downcasters vs wishcasters...how classic
    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for Flash Flooding and Locally Damaging Winds
    For people in the western half of the Pilbara and the far northern Gascoyne

    A low near the west Pilbara coast is expected to cause heavy rain over that
    could result in flash flooding. The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that
    driving conditions may be hazardous. Should flash flooding occur, avoid affected
    roads, watercourses and floodways in the vicinity until safe to proceed. Flood
    Warnings are current for the Lyndon-Minilya Rivers and Gascoyne River Catchment,
    Onslow Coastal Streams, Ashburton River and Pilbara coastal streams, please
    refer to the latest warnings for further details.

    There is also the risk of thunderstorms that may result in locally damaging
    winds to 100 kilometres per hour that could result in damage to property.

    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    623. futuremet
    Wow - great visuals! Well done.


    Thanks KEH

    you were mentioned in one of my videos..and you too drak
    I just looked at the EUROSIP multi-model forecast and it seems to show strongly above-average pressure across the MDR region coupled with more widespread subsident conditions through the May, June,and July time frame. Still, obviously, a lot of time for change; but, nevertheless, interesting to note.
    Cooler SSTs...



    629. futuremet
    How cool! It's pretty neat hearing myself being mentioned. Thank futuremet!
    Quoting futuremet:
    624

    Trough vs ridges....downcasters vs wishcasters...how classic


    Not at all.. the ENSO model have been screamin it but the Pacific hasn't been bringing it. ENSO is lagging the models predictions & has been a few months now. I haven't bought the raging El Nino as true~ not watching the ESPI. Just pointing out those ENSO models are most likely feeding the long models. Stronger the EL NIno more chance of fish. You are what you eat..
    Quoting Skyepony:


    Not at all.. the ENSO model have been screamin it but the Pacific hasn't been bringing it. ENSO is lagging the models predictions & has been a few months now. I haven't bought the raging El Nino as true~ not watching the ESPI. Just pointing out those ENSO models are most likely feeding the long models. Stronger the EL NIno more chance of fish. You are what you eat..


    I was not talking about you skye =]

    I was talking about those who often go overboard here
    Quoting futuremet:
    Geoffrey

    What happened to JFV?

    Why does he not post here anymore?....I know he is no longer banned
    Shhhhhh!
    sorry surfmon...
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Something might be happening on Redoubt...it could be coming....


    you told me waves were coming...but you forgot to mention how cold it is!!!! Like someone opened a freezer door today -- yuk

    Post 631 -- good to see those ocean temp maps... Trinidad has some nice temps...especially compared to me
    Quoting futuremet:
    sorry surfmon...
    *giggle* : )
    I love this cool weather...makes up for the miserable summers and high a.c. bills...
    639

    I hate the COLD! and it seems to be making a temporary comeback here in FL
    Quoting SevereHurricane:
    hmmmm.......

    Its intresting to note that the long-range CFS does not develop much in the GOM or CAR this hurricane season.
    But has 2 Nasty Fish/Cape Verde Hurricanes in September.
    do you know models are meant to be used as guidance only and do not depict final outcome in any one event things can and will always change
    Quoting futuremet:
    639

    I hate the COLD! and it seems to be making a temporary comeback here in FL


    It will be warmer here tommorow =]
    Here in West Palm tomorrow...highs in the upper 60's - low 70's...:)...another cold snap later in the week with lows in the 40's


    storm system movin unto plains
    fla gets colder as plains system tracks quickly towards lower lakes with cold air on backside rushing into the east with a clipper droppin down from north western canda on the weekend with a reinforcing shot of cold air for end of weekend
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    Here in West Palm tomorrow...highs in the upper 60's - low 70's...:)...another cold snap later in the week with lows in the 40's


    I know....lows are expected to reach in the low 40s in central FL
    Geof -- there you go loving these cool temps...I'm sure Madison prefers this weather -- she's looking so lovely!!
    Quoting surfmom:
    Geof -- there you go loving these cool temps...I'm sure Madison prefers this weather -- she's looking so lovely!!
    BRRR Surfmom....you must be hating the cold.
    Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
    fla gets colder as plains system tracks quickly towards lower lakes with cold air on backside rushing into the east with a clipper droppin down from north western canda on the weekend with a reinforcing shot of cold air for end of weekend


    Makes for waves -- just got to deal with the cold... It's getting a little old now -- I could take it in the beginning -- now I shudder and have to climb over that feeling....
    Quoting conchygirl:
    BRRR Surfmom....you must be hating the cold.
    I was happy yesterday and miserable today --- I just tightened right up.
    South Australian tease...


    I was just looking at some of the comments posted on earlier, specifically about the CFS long-range forecast not depicting much development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and about Drak's comment regarding strong subsidence across the basin from May through July.

    First off, that subsidence thing might actually be a bad thing. Why? Simple. Subsidence inhibits convection, and thus tropical cyclogenesis. If we don't see any development from May through July, no heat energy will be absorbed from the ocean. Thus, come August and September when development begins in earnest, we could see a tropical cyclone rapidly deepen under the right conditions, because none of the heat energy will have been used up. With the good comes the bad.

    In regards to Severe's comment about not much in the Caribbean or GoM this season, I have two reasons to disagree with that forecast from the CFS, which are: A) I can't think of many, if any seasons off the top of my head where there hasn't been any development in at least one of the two aforementioned locations. Even during the most inactive years for the Gulf, like 1984, we've still had a storm in there. It's the same for the Caribbean, even if we don't always get a hurricane there, we still almost always see a named storm there. The major factor against this forecast, though, is the fact it's at least 7 months out. Regardless of how far we've advanced, there is currently no way we can even come close to accurately forecasting weather that far in advance. Hell, we still have difficulty with forecasts two weeks in advance. Thus, giving credence to any long-range forecast is faulty. This is why I don't take Gray's forecasts for hurricane season seriously until May. Even in April when he releases his forecasts, it's only going to be a guessing game. Nothing more. And the same principle I mentioned in regards to Drak's comment about subsidence from May through July applies to your comment about no development in the Caribbean or GoM, Severe; if we don't get very much development in the GoM or Caribbean this year, then assuming we have a warmer than normal winter (quite possible if El Nino develops this winter as some predict), SSTs will be above average in those two areas in 2010, and thus, with none of 2009's heat energy having been used up there. With the good comes the bad.

    I realize that both Drak and Severe's comments were written with good intentions. So was mine, though, and I apologize sincerely for the rant. I'm rather good at that. :)
    Quoting Drakoen:
    I just looked at the EUROSIP multi-model forecast and it seems to show strongly above-average pressure across the MDR region coupled with more widespread subsident conditions through the May, June,and July time frame. Still, obviously, a lot of time for change; but, nevertheless, interesting to note.


    Funny - I had a gut feeling this year was going to start a low slower than the previous few...

    Quoting Skyepony:
    South Australian tease...


    From the RSMC they have issued their final tropical disturbance summary on 10F(15P).

    Anyway, visit my contest! The due date is February.
    Quoting Cotillion:


    Funny - I had a gut feeling this year was going to start a low slower than the previous few...



    I've had that feeling as well. Then again, I had the very same feeling about 2008, and well... >_>
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number FIVE
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
    15:00 PM FST February 17 2009
    =========================================

    At 03:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression TEN-F (998 hPa) located at 21.1S 164.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots in the sector 30 to 120 NM of the center in the northeast quadrant and in sector 30 to 180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 14 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation.

    TD TEN-F lies along the northwestern periphery of a mid level anticyclonic circulation in an area of low shear. Outflow remains good to the east and developing to south but restricted elsewhere. Latest radar imagery from New Caledonia shows good banding as the system moved over the landmass.

    Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.35 on LOG10 spiral yields DT=2.0. MET=2.5, PT=2.0. FT based on MET.

    Thus T2.5/2.5/D0.5/ 24 HRS

    The system lies to the south of a 250 HPA ridge and is being steered southwestward. TD TEN-F is currently being influenced by an upper short wave trough. However, CIMSS indicates increasing shear to the south. Sea surface temperatures is around 27C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with little or no intensification.

    POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS MODERATE BUT LOW THEREAFTER.
    The depression is now Tropical Cyclone Innis..

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER BRISBANE

    Tropical Cyclone INNIS 10F [995hPa] centre was located 21.8S 163.9E at 170600 UTC.

    Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 13 knots.

    Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre, increasing to 40 knots during the next 6 to 12 hours.

    Expect winds over 33 knots within 200 nautical miles of centre in the southern quadrant and within 120 nautical miles elsewhere of centre.

    This warning cancels and replaces warning 025.

    RE-ISSUED BY THE TCWC BRISBANE.
    RSMC Nadi is slow with the Tropical Disturbance Advisory..
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number SIX
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INNIS, CATEGORY ONE
    18:00 PM FST February 17 2009
    ========================================

    At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Innis, Category One (995 hPa) located at 21.8S 163.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots close to the center, increasing to 40 knots during the next 6 to 12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 13 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/visible imagery with animation.

    Gale-Force Winds
    ====================
    Gale force winds within 200 NM of the center in the southern quadrant and within 120 NM elsewhere of the center

    TC Innis lies along the northwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclonic circulation in an area of low shear with an upper level diffluence to the east.

    Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.55 on LOG10 Spiral yeilds DT=2.5, MET=PT=3.0, FT based on MET

    Thus T3.0/3.0/D1.0/ 24 HRS

    CIMMS indicates that the system lies in a low sheared environment and is expected to move into an environment of increasing shear within the next 12 to 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Tropical Cyclone Innis is being steered southwest by a northeasterly deep layer mean flow. Global models show that TC Innis will remain on a southwesterly trajectory within the next 24 hours before turning south with little intensification.

    Forecast and Intensity
    ==========================
    12 HRS: 24.5S 162.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
    24 HRS: 27.9S 160.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
    48 HRS: 37.0S 162.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)



    Victoria fires death toll climbs to 200, firefighter killed by falling tree near Marysville

    Article from: AAP

    By Melissa Iaria, Greg Roberts and Xavier La Canna

    February 17, 2009 08:43pm

    A FIREFIGHTER is dead after being killed by a falling tree near Marysville, northeast of Melbourne.

    Police confirmed the firefighter died just after after 7pm (AEDT) when a tree fell on a car.

    The firefighter died at the scene at Cambarville, just east of Marysville in the Yarra Ranges National Park.

    It is understood the firefighter was helping with the Victoria fires recovery effort.

    Another passenger in the car was not injured.

    The death toll from the Victoria fires now stands at 200, with 11 new deaths confirmed by police from the savage Kinglake Complex bushfires.

    The hardest hit community from the devastating fires, which began amid high wind and extreme heat on February 7, is Strathewen, on Melbourne's northeastern fringe, where 42 people out of about 200 residents are confirmed dead.

    The number of dead confirmed at Kinglake is now 37, four more than yesterday, while 21 deaths have now been recorded at nearby St Andrews.

    At Steels Creek, 10 people have now been confirmed dead, with the toll rising to two at Strath Creek.

    The Kinglake Complex, covering a vast section of Victoria's central highlands, now accounts for 139 of the 200 deaths.

    The toll at Marysville, which stands at 39, is expected to rise sharply as the search for the remains of missing people continues.

    Meanwhile, anger at accused bushfire arsonist Brendan Sokaluk has led to threats against a member of his family and harassment of a former girlfriend.

    Mr Sokaluk, 39, is charged with lighting the Churchill fire, which killed at least 10 people, and is in custody at a secret location amid fears vigilantes will harm him.

    He has been charged with one count each of arson causing death, intentionally lighting a bushfire and possessing child pornography.

    Victoria's Supreme Court today heard there had been threats to at least one member of Mr Sokaluk's family.

    At a hearing to decide whether a suppression order banning publication of Mr Sokaluk's image should be lifted, the accused arsonist's lawyer Julian McMahon revealed news of the threats.

    "There have been ... threats made to one other family member at least that I'm aware of," Mr McMahon said.

    "Not only is there the understandable community anger which suddenly has a focus point, there's also vicious hatred appearing in another kind of medium.

    "Facebook groups were ... showing my client's photo and calling for his torture and death."

    Most of the Facebook pages relating to Mr Sokaluk have since been removed and the accused arsonist's MySpace page has been taken down.

    The comments came the same day the mother of Mr Sokaluk's former girlfriend publicly called for understanding at their situation.

    The woman, who did not wish to be named, is the mother of Alexandra, who was in a three-month relationship with Mr Sokaluk last year.

    "Our family has already experienced harassment and community ill-feeling as a result of the media linking our family with the accused," she said.

    She said her daughter had a stable job that she enjoyed and was a valuable member of the local community.

    "We fear this could be jeopardised by the current publicity," she said in a statement distributed by police.

    Mr McMahon said there was a "very ugly aspect" to the media reporting in the case, and identity could also be an issue at any trial of Mr Sokaluk.

    The court case to decide whether Mr Sokaluk's image can be shown will return to court on Friday.

    Meanwhile Victoria Police want to ban messages being posted on internet blogs about Mr Sokaluk.

    "It could (jeopardise the case) - Victoria police are taking some action to take a look at that," Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe said.

    "We'll talk with the DPP (Director of Public Prosecutions) and we'll also make some inquiries with the blogging side of it, whether we can have it removed.

    "We don't want anything to take place, we don't want anything to be done, that might jeopardise a fair trial down the track."

    Victorian Premier John Brumby called on the public to let justice takes its course.

    "I know how angry we all feel about what's occurred, but I can't comment on specific cases and the community as a whole must let justice take its course and that's a matter now for the courts."

    Mr Sokaluk has been remanded in custody to appear at a committal mention on May 26.

    He has not entered a plea nor applied for bail.
    51 degrees here in SWFL -- Think some dude in Canada left the Freezer door open.
    Morning Surfmom - 28*f in Macon, Ga 606am EST
    Cold front Waves GOMEX / SWFL
    Wed building S windswell at best s facers 1-2ft. Thursday: W swell filling in during the day but again only 1-3ft. Friday am: knee to waist high, clean leftovers going flat for next weekend.

    Tampaspin told me I'd be getting waves, although he left out the colder temps...... I might get something to ride out of this cold front..... water was at 62 degrees - may drop some-

    Easy to get wet in the begining of the winter... having a harder time of it now. Been well over a month since I had a decent ride..... missed the last set of coldfront waves.... maybe these will have my name on them
    If you can stand the cold...you'll have something to ride Surfmom:


    Photobucket

    103 Days till Hurricane season,
    Quoting CybrTeddy:
    103 Days till Hurricane season,


    I don't know what I'd do with out you Teddy!

    although waves via coldfronts are getting to me
    Seas are 4-6ft over here on the east coast today Smom.

    The Gulf Stream is really rocking!

    Quoting KoritheMan:
    I was just looking at some of the comments posted on earlier, specifically about the CFS long-range forecast not depicting much development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and about Drak's comment regarding strong subsidence across the basin from May through July.

    First off, that subsidence thing might actually be a bad thing. Why? Simple. Subsidence inhibits convection, and thus tropical cyclogenesis. If we don't see any development from May through July, no heat energy will be absorbed from the ocean. Thus, come August and September when development begins in earnest, we could see a tropical cyclone rapidly deepen under the right conditions, because none of the heat energy will have been used up. With the good comes the bad.

    In regards to Severe's comment about not much in the Caribbean or GoM this season, I have two reasons to disagree with that forecast from the CFS, which are: A) I can't think of many, if any seasons off the top of my head where there hasn't been any development in at least one of the two aforementioned locations. Even during the most inactive years for the Gulf, like 1984, we've still had a storm in there. It's the same for the Caribbean, even if we don't always get a hurricane there, we still almost always see a named storm there. The major factor against this forecast, though, is the fact it's at least 7 months out. Regardless of how far we've advanced, there is currently no way we can even come close to accurately forecasting weather that far in advance. Hell, we still have difficulty with forecasts two weeks in advance. Thus, giving credence to any long-range forecast is faulty. This is why I don't take Gray's forecasts for hurricane season seriously until May. Even in April when he releases his forecasts, it's only going to be a guessing game. Nothing more. And the same principle I mentioned in regards to Drak's comment about subsidence from May through July applies to your comment about no development in the Caribbean or GoM, Severe; if we don't get very much development in the GoM or Caribbean this year, then assuming we have a warmer than normal winter (quite possible if El Nino develops this winter as some predict), SSTs will be above average in those two areas in 2010, and thus, with none of 2009's heat energy having been used up there. With the good comes the bad.

    I realize that both Drak and Severe's comments were written with good intentions. So was mine, though, and I apologize sincerely for the rant. I'm rather good at that. :)
    Pretty interesting analysis here. I think even Gray himself would have to agree w/ u on the longterm forecasts LOL. I've long held the opinion that those forecasts are more about learning about forecasting than about actually giving anyone a genuine idea of what will happen. I also see some validity to your comments about the build up in thermal potential for the latter part of the season (or even for next season) if these long range forecasts do pan out.

    I'm more interested in the long-term ENSO forecasts, though. What happens if we transition into a deep el nino, something the forecasts have been hinting at for a while, during that Jun-Jul-Aug period? (thinking long and short term here.)
    Quoting vortfix:
    Seas are 4-6ft over here on the east coast today Smom.

    The Gulf Stream is really rocking!

    -- figures... my turn may come on Thursday --- but the temps. may be just too much --I've used up my summer core heat reserve --
    Quoting KoritheMan:
    I was just looking at some of the comments posted on earlier, specifically about the CFS long-range forecast not depicting much development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and about Drak's comment regarding strong subsidence across the basin from May through July.

    First off, that subsidence thing might actually be a bad thing. Why? Simple. Subsidence inhibits convection, and thus tropical cyclogenesis. If we don't see any development from May through July, no heat energy will be absorbed from the ocean. Thus, come August and September when development begins in earnest, we could see a tropical cyclone rapidly deepen under the right conditions, because none of the heat energy will have been used up. With the good comes the bad.

    In regards to Severe's comment about not much in the Caribbean or GoM this season, I have two reasons to disagree with that forecast from the CFS, which are: A) I can't think of many, if any seasons off the top of my head where there hasn't been any development in at least one of the two aforementioned locations. Even during the most inactive years for the Gulf, like 1984, we've still had a storm in there. It's the same for the Caribbean, even if we don't always get a hurricane there, we still almost always see a named storm there. The major factor against this forecast, though, is the fact it's at least 7 months out. Regardless of how far we've advanced, there is currently no way we can even come close to accurately forecasting weather that far in advance. Hell, we still have difficulty with forecasts two weeks in advance. Thus, giving credence to any long-range forecast is faulty. This is why I don't take Gray's forecasts for hurricane season seriously until May. Even in April when he releases his forecasts, it's only going to be a guessing game. Nothing more. And the same principle I mentioned in regards to Drak's comment about subsidence from May through July applies to your comment about no development in the Caribbean or GoM, Severe; if we don't get very much development in the GoM or Caribbean this year, then assuming we have a warmer than normal winter (quite possible if El Nino develops this winter as some predict), SSTs will be above average in those two areas in 2010, and thus, with none of 2009's heat energy having been used up there. With the good comes the bad.

    I realize that both Drak and Severe's comments were written with good intentions. So was mine, though, and I apologize sincerely for the rant. I'm rather good at that. :)


    Its all good,
    I just thought it was weird that it prediced Hurricane Ike in February Last year.
    I just thought it was intresting that it even though there was not much tropical cyclogenesis here there were numerous storms in the E. Pacific.

    Now as far as confidence in the forecast goes, I think their is no way it is correct but again Its fun to look as far as 9 months in advance...

    Intresting Fact,
    Did you know Accuweather relies on CFS heavily in their seasonal forecasts? No wonder their wrong.
    TampaSpin!! -- Okay you told me about the waves...but dude you forgot to mention the cold temps. coming w/it --- No FAIR!! THAT WAS A CRUEL TEASER LOL

    Really tried to be a good sport and surf these guilt free cold front waves..... but my heat reserves from the summer are all depleted -- it gets more and more difficult to get out there when the air & water are soooo cold......so dear friends...please, please forgive me....... but the memories of Hurricane Dolly and her most lovely waves are playing in my memory -- over and over --- warm water, lovely waves..... will they come my way again?
    I don't blame you Surfmom.
    Surfing in cold weather can be painful.
    I never really enjoyed it myself.

    The warmth and waves shall return and maybe even some rain as a bonus!

    I just wish I knew when...LOL
    We could sure use some of each right now!

    Quoting surfmom:
    TampaSpin!! -- Okay you told me about the waves...but dude you forgot to mention the cold temps. coming w/it --- No FAIR!! THAT WAS A CRUEL TEASER LOL

    Really tried to be a good sport and surf these guilt free cold front waves..... but my heat reserves from the summer are all depleted -- it gets more and more difficult to get out there when the air & water are soooo cold......so dear friends...please, please forgive me....... but the memories of Hurricane Dolly and her most lovely waves are playing in my memory -- over and over --- warm water, lovely waves..... will they come my way again?


    wimp......LOL
    wimp......LOL

    Bwahahahahahahahahahaha...better duck and cover man!

    Quoting vortfix:
    wimp......LOL

    Bwahahahahahahahahahaha...better duck and cover man!



    yep i probably should delete that before she see's it......
    Good Morning: Yeah, the cooler weather has returned. I'm soaking it in to help when the heat and humidity return. Sorry Surfmom - I love the cooler temps and low humidity! :)
    SurfMom the GOM temperature is warmer than the air temperature......Just stay in the water, the GOM water is warmer.....LMAO
    Quoting conchygirl:
    Good Morning: Yeah, the cooler weather has returned. I'm soaking it in to help when the heat and humidity return. Sorry Surfmom - I love the cooler temps and low humidity! :)


    Hey girl you didn't do any planting did you....Freezing temperatures are coming as i told ya last week...
    TS - Love the cool temps! I'll take all of it I can get. Does seem a bit late in the year for us to still be having these cold snaps. LOVE IT, LOVE IT! Can we do a cold dance so it stays through say May!
    Tampa - oh, no planting yet. Funny I did think about it this weekend though. I was going to try Skyepony's kids swimming pool idea. My remaining tomatoes will surely die with this next round of cold. Lost all my basil!
    Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?
    Quoting RitaEvac:
    Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?


    What!!! YOu sure.
    Quoting RitaEvac:
    Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?


    I see what your saying! Strange, we haven't had 80deg temperatures yet. Has to be a glitch and wrong readings or something...
    Complete Blog Refresh
    Mirror Site
    New Section includes Mt Redoubt



    I am also trying something new with these link
    Display Current
    Quoting surfmom:
    51 degrees here in SWFL -- Think some dude in Canada left the Freezer door open.


    It was KOG, I think he got his new weather station?
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    wimp......LOL


    Oh thank you Tim, its a brave man who steps in front of a train ..... and lets the rest of us watch :)
    Orca did you see the overseas markets last nite.....wow....not good! Gonna be a rough day today on WallStreet. Hopefully at the end of the day its even but, it will open way down real quick.
    All you can do is grin and BEAR it....as the Market is about to open!

    Hmmmm?
    In a train/cow collision, they report "Train runs over cow"

    When an airplane flys into a bird they report "Bird flys into airplane" or "Airplane hit by flock of birds".

    Is it just me ?
    Quoting theshepherd:
    Hmmmm?
    In a train/cow collision, they report "Train runs over cow"

    When an airplane flys into a bird they report "Bird flys into airplane" or "Airplane hit by flock of birds".

    Is it just me ?


    No your right.....i think the birds had airspace rights before we did.
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Orca did you see the overseas markets last nite.....wow....not good! Gonna be a rough day today on WallStreet. Hopefully at the end of the day its even but, it will open way down real quick.


    This may sound to simplistic Tim, but here it goes anyway.

    Money in Stocks = Zero
    Money in Wallstreet Stuff = Zero
    Money in Money Market = Zero
    My money in other peoples control (not counting SWMBO) = Zero
    GAFF about people money who invested to get rich or make a quick buck = Zero

    The only person I have to blame when it comes to how much I earn or save... Me (and SWMBO shopping)

    I don't follow the trading, or money markets or mortgage crisis. I make my money the old fashioned way.. I earn it.

    692. HTV
    Quoting RitaEvac:
    Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?

    Joe B. brought that up last week. It may be instrumentation glitch or... Phosphates and such washed down the Miss. River creating some sort of bloom allowing for more solar absorption. I'm guessing instruments.
    There was a huge photoplanktin bloom in the gulf last week..
    Looks like the heat is coming from the caribbean though..
    695. HTV
    Quoting Skyepony:
    Looks like the heat is coming from the caribbean though..

    Yeah, it does look like a warm-pool eddy breaking off.
    I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view.....


    SEVERE WEATHER COMING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY!

    TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
    It's actually warm(ish) today. Spring is on her way...
    Quoting Skyepony:
    Looks like the heat is coming from the caribbean though..


    Sky the Graphics from this site can be deceiving also. I did not realize that when you change depths that the color scale changes also. Don't know why they did that. Made no sense.
    Gulf of Mexico 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Link

    GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (using WW3) Link

    ESL WAVCIS page Link

    The TROPICAL WEATHER on that page is the wunderground's
    Quoting Patrap:
    Gulf of Mexico 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Link

    GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (using WW3) Link

    ESL WAVCIS page Link

    The TROPICAL WEATHER on that page is the wunderground's


    Pat those Water Temps seem much more realistic.
    It iz still winter..


    Mid May is the threshold ..usually,lately..
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    wimp......LOL


    Dude.... I thought you were my neighbor!!!! perhaps I need to sharpen my verbal sword!!,,,,,,,,,nahhhh -- I know I'll be needing you in ...How many Days CyberTed???? You get a free pass on the tease..... there's no Cheese for my Whine.... and that's why they invented Neoprene
    Quoting theshepherd:
    Hmmmm?
    In a train/cow collision, they report "Train runs over cow"

    When an airplane flys into a bird they report "Bird flys into airplane" or "Airplane hit by flock of birds".

    Is it just me ?
    your too quick this morning--- I'm rolling off my chair!

    But NOW that you referred to me as a wimp -- the burner is ignited.... the neoprene will be applied...... and under my breath I'm hissing........"I'll show him whose a wimp."

    Got my motivation -- question is -- you gonna come down and paddle out with me????

    Cold Front waves are delightful.... just like surfing a 7:11 Slurpee.

    I have no work today -- hallelujah -- I have no boss spouse looking over my shoulder.......what does this mean -----NO RULES and a very long, run -- hour out and an hour back should delight. Cold weather made me hungry last night -- confessing to eating 4 donuts -- now I must pay penance (as soon as it warms up)
    Quoting surfmom:


    Dude.... I thought you were my neighbor!!!! perhaps I need to sharpen my verbal sword!!,,,,,,,,,nahhhh -- I know I'll be needing you in ...How many Days CyberTed???? You get a free pass on the tease..... there's no Cheese for my Whine.... and that's why they invented Neoprene


    104 Days less or more a few hours my friend.
    707. JRRP
    702
    impressive system
    Well, New York is awaiting a minor winter storm system for the next two days. I'm bracing for a drop in temperature and a cold rain (or snow.)
    Quoting CybrTeddy:


    104 Days less or more a few hours my friend.


    now that feels like pending doom --- ahhh we woman -- never can make us happy
    Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
    Index Value: 7,607.64
    Trade Time: 11:03AM ET
    Change: 242.77 (3.09%)
    Prev Close: 7,850.41
    Open: 7,845.63
    Day's Range: 7,560.33 - 7,970.84
    52wk Range: 7,392.27 - 13,191.50
    Quoting Skyepony:
    There was a huge photoplanktin bloom in the gulf last week..
    I saw those Sat. Photos on your blog, -- really fascinating..... Was it the good stuff that bloomed? Do not believe I have received any Red Tide Reports......
    Well looky what the cat dragged in.....#710
    re: post # 710....

    I'm seriously thinking about jumping out of the window.....
    Some people will go to any extreme to show there is global warming WHICH IS CAUSED BY HUMANS. They will use any means possible to take any statistics out of context to prove that point. They never take any statistical part of a graph to prove otherwise. There is absolutely no evidence to PROVE that humans or carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is the cause of any global warming if it indeed exists outside of natural sequences. I'm sure if you had records going back 10,000 years you might see the same patterns repeated again and again before fossil fuels. You can always take part of a relatively short period graph to prove anything you like while ignoring the parts you don't like. Me thinks some people have a political goal in mind pursuing global warming for a sinister (to my mind) purpose.
    ...only problem is....my office is on the first floor....
    Quoting presslord:
    re: post # 710....

    I'm seriously thinking about jumping out of the window.....


    To messy.... I have some other suggestions
    There is an extratropical storm dominating most of the eastern Atlantic. Winds and waves are up...
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    This may sound to simplistic Tim, but here it goes anyway.

    Money in Stocks = Zero
    Money in Wallstreet Stuff = Zero
    Money in Money Market = Zero
    My money in other peoples control (not counting SWMBO) = Zero
    GAFF about people money who invested to get rich or make a quick buck = Zero

    The only person I have to blame when it comes to how much I earn or save... Me (and SWMBO shopping)

    I don't follow the trading, or money markets or mortgage crisis. I make my money the old fashioned way.. I earn it.



    Amen,brother....Amen,greed is why most lost there money anyways!!!
    One can party here,till ya drop..or get arrested.Link
    Quoting stillwaiting:


    Amen,brother....Amen,greed is why most lost there money anyways!!!


    Yup, if you went sub prime.. and maxed out.. then the old expression prevails...

    If it sounds to good to be true.. then it probably isn't.
    ...at the end of the day...it's not what you make...it's what you spend....
    Quoting presslord:
    ...at the end of the day...it's not what you make...it's what you spend....


    Well said... and as long as the spend is smaller then the make... you win :)
    Hi everyone - I'm working in Missouri after ice storms and I can tell you it isn't warming here quite yet. Been away for a while - first on fabulous fifty anniversary trip and then on some medical stuff. Hope this year is a mild one as some of you are forecasting for the tropics! Good to log back on and see the same gang is here.
    Hello all.
    Weather here, still getting showers, but it looks like it will improve this week.
    Temp 86F
    humidity 66 %
    Wind 20 mph ene
    Very Nice......
    725. HTV
    Quoting presslord:
    ...only problem is....my office is on the first floor....

    Appears Wall Street's and my opinion on the "Stimulus Package" concur.
    Economy not slowing Mardi Gras preparations. Link

    The season can pump $1 billion into the city’s economy from hotels, retail sales of beads and costumes and school bands getting paid to march, Romig said.

    Pottery -- the ocean temp maps & your post make it quite clear to me -- I need a better location...I'm staring at my outfit for this Thursday cold front waves --NEOPRENE--

    I spend a fortune on a B-suit & I cover it up with black neoprene...... not right!

    BTW
    Re Facebook rules:
    It was announced this AM that Facebook has changed your right to privacy "in their best interests" and will retain your data in their records for as long as they feel a need and for whatever purpose they desire.
    Name, address, DOB, employement, education, family, associates, vacation locations, pets, the works.
    The change has been quitely taking place over the last two weeks. Too late to edit your profile or delete your page to protect your privacy.
    Same ol' adage, "be careful what you throw out there"...
    C'mon in, Surfmom, The water's fine.......
    heheheheh
    Where did the " set timezone" button go to. I have been stuck on "GMT" and want to change it,.....
    The season can pump $1 billion into the city’s economy from hotels, retail sales of beads and costumes and school bands getting paid to march, Romig said.

    I heard the occupancy rate in the hotels over the weekend was in the high %90s. And this is in a town that regularly hosts college championship sports events and superbowls.
    Quoting stillwaiting:


    Amen,brother....Amen,greed is why most lost there money anyways!!!


    Most of the "Poofed" money was lost in 401K accounts.
    Participating in a 401K is greed??



    730
    Pottery, click "settings" next to your handle at the top of the page... click "page preferences" and it will be there!


    All of you sound like you keep up with current weather and are a cut above the whiney hineys!

    I have seen times in the Early 50's the weather was so cold here in MS you would have thought it was Alaska! We would have snow and it wouldn't melt in a week or 10 days! 5-6 years later (and before) we would go barefooted and shirtless during Christmas. We have the SAME type weather NOW!!
    Lord knows I hate to admit this in public ;)...

    but....I agree with Vort...
    Quoting stillwaiting:


    Amen,brother....Amen,greed is why most lost there money anyways!!!

    I'm trying to hear ya, but the sound of golden parachutes hitting the ground over the last two years and in Colorado this morning is deafening.
    12:23 P EST .DJIA7567.58-282.83-3.6%679,409,000
    737
    Press is your window wide enough for two to go together?
    Absolutely Nadia!!!!!!!!!!! Misery loves company!!!!!!
    Quoting pottery:
    Where did the " set timezone" button go to. I have been stuck on "GMT" and want to change it,.....
    ME TOO!!! it's making me nuts
    Applying for a Visa? Someone Is Reading Your Facebook Page

    Posted by Liliana Segura, AlterNet at 8:45 AM on February 5, 2009.

    Clinton to visa applicants: "You should know that the State Department is on the watch here for Facebook."


    Look out, social networkers abroad: if you're trying to get a visa to enter our fine country, you may want to get rid of your Facebook account.

    In a town hall meeting at the State Department yesterday featuring the affable Hillary Clinton, an "Information Management Officer" at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City cited Facebook, MySpace, and "other web 2.0 social networking tecnologies" as "significantly enhanc(ing) the Department's diplomacy efforts and business goals," which apparently include weeding out potential immigrants.

    "For example," the comically Orwellian IMO boasted:

    An astute consular officer in Hermosillo recently used Facebook to determine a visa applicant's ineligibility based on information contained on the applicant's Facebook page -- (applause) -- proving its value as an anti-fraud tool. (Laughter.)


    Lol!! Silly visa-seekers. Don't they know Big Brother is, like, totally plugged into the internets? Now that we have a president who actually knows how to turn on a computer, like the kids, his Secretary of State fully intends to exploit such popular border-transcendent technology to -- what else? -- enforce the border.

    When asked whether she plans "to work with the Department's security stakeholders in order to navigate or mitigate the vulnerabilities of these technologies so that we may leverage their business benefits," Hillary Clinton didn't have to ask the moderator to repeat the question before responding enthusiastically:

    "Yes, absolutely."

    (Applause.)

    … We've got to figure out how we're going to be smarter about using technology. So I think that's a great example, the Facebook example. And you know, we might want to follow up on that example, checking out Facebook. For everybody who is applying for a visa, you just should know that the State Department is on the watch here for Facebook.


    You heard it here, amigos: Time to update your status. Next up on the live feed:

    Big Brother is Watching You.
    740
    See my post #733 above LOL
    Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
    shheeeesh page preferences -- how the heck would I know that????? Been staring at that for two days now ----I so belong in the kitchen with the critters or the youngin's. Much easier for me to navigate a 3 year old through a tantrum then wander through computer land. I'm going to try this w/out Youngbuck -- hope I don't blow myself out of cyberspace.....

    MissNadia -- good thing I don't fly a plane eh???
    Pat....now you need to find a pic of a rock falling off the same cliff....labeled "DJIA"
    I have been know to be a whiney.... but right now I'm a pastie -- so I'll endure the cold to get some radiant heat and color
    Quoting presslord:
    Absolutely Nadia!!!!!!!!!!! Misery loves company!!!!!!


    Please, Please boys........ surely you could think of something else to ease the misery....sounds like you grounded sailors need to get the boats out and unfurl your sails
    Quoting surfmom:


    Please, Please boys........ surely you could think of something else to ease the misery....sounds like you grounded sailors need to get the boats out and unfurl your sails



    It's too darned cold!!!! I think I prefer to just sit here in the warmth of my office and wallow in my misery.....
    Arguably a silver lining...

    Oil slips below $35 as global markets slump
    Oil slips below $35 with demand expectations bleak and global markets falling
    John Porretto, AP Energy Writer
    Tuesday February 17, 2009, 11:34 am EST

    HOUSTON (AP) -- A new batch of lousy economic news dragged oil prices down nearly 8 percent Tuesday, as signs from across the globe pointed to a prolonged and painful recession.
    750
    It don't help me..got a bunch of oil..i'm looking for inflation!
    well then...let's jump....
    Quoting presslord:
    well then...let's jump....

    I prefer to follow the white rabbit
    Quoting MissNadia:
    750
    It don't help me..got a bunch of oil..i'm looking for inflation!


    that's why this pryate loves those little gold bars
    well, the temps. have warmed, dinner is prepped, domestics completed -- boss is out -- I'm hitting the road for a run in the sun -- back in several hours.... I got a rabbit to catch
    754
    I have more than my fair share of them... about the only good thing I have now!!
    Buy crappy farmland....20 - 30 miles inland...sea level rise from GW will make it ocenfront property...it's a sure bet....
    Quoting MissNadia:
    754
    I have more than my fair share of them... about the only good thing I have now!!


    I only have a highschool education -- 3 years ago I saw this crap coming -- it was like waiting for a stack of blocks to tumble -- it was just a matter of time for the block in the middle to get pulled, taking the rest of the "blocks" down with it. Suggested those shiny bars to boss/spouse.............I think more to appease me he listened..... I'm sitting pretty now..... and I know he wishes he had more....don't we all!!! 'cause the rest of the stuff -- kinda evaporated ok -----swoosh I'm out.


    deep storm passing off se newfoundland
    Jeff, stop being so democrat and face it. "Global Warming" will no longer get the vulnerable public tp scamper around in fear. You, the biased liberal media, Al Gore, and other senseless democratic politicians can try covering up your alleged "crisis". However, you & the democrats will only continue looking even more ridiculous than ever.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmsqJvRrs9I
    ^ Watch Rush, be informed.
    NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
    South Florida StormWatch
    I can end global warming. Permafrost the entire globe! Haha!

    Oh yeah btw, you people deviated from the topic lol

    Quoting Ron5244:
    Jeff, stop being so democrat and face it. "Global Warming" will no longer get the vulnerable public tp scamper around in fear. You, the biased liberal media, Al Gore, and other senseless democratic politicians can try covering up your alleged "crisis". However, you & the democrats will only continue looking even more ridiculous than ever.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmsqJvRrs9I
    ^ Watch Rush, be informed.




    Tell us how you really feel...


    Is that some "Seinfeld" spin-off or something?

    Does this Rush show have a Emmy?

    Your fly is open too...

    ....geeesh

    I really don't care if GW exists people are trashing the world and we're not doing nearly enough to stop it *coughRoncough*
    Quoting all4hurricanes:
    I really don't care if GW exists people are trashing the world and we're not doing nearly enough to stop it *coughRoncough*


    I second this notion.
    Quoting all4hurricanes:
    I really don't care if GW exists people are trashing the world and we're not doing nearly enough to stop it *coughRoncough*

    Quoting KoritheMan:


    I second this notion.


    I third this notion.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number EIGHT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INNIS CATEGORY ONE
    6:00 AM FST February 18 2009
    ============================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Innis, Category One (995 hPa) located at 24.8S 160.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 15 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/enhanced infrared radar imagery and recent microwave pass.

    Gale force winds
    =================
    150 NM of the center in the southern semi-circle and within 120 NM of the center in the northern semi-circle

    The low level circulation center is sheared less than 3/4 degree from deep convection. The system remains under a diffluent region and 25 knot shear. Cyclone INNIS is located just north of a weak jet entrance region.

    Dvorak analysis based on shear yields DT=2.5, MET=PT=2.5, FT based on MET.

    T2.5/3.0/D0.5/ 24HRS

    CIMMS indicated decreasing shear to the south. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. TC INNIS is being steered southwest by low to mid level northeasterlies. Global models agree on a gradual turn to a southerly track with little intensification.

    Forecast and Intensity
    ========================
    12 HRS: 28.8S 158.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
    24 HRS: 33.4S 158.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
    48 HRS: 41.4S 161.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

  • THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC INNIS AS IT IS MOVING OUT OF NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

  • Refer to Tropical Cyclone Bulletins from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane for the next advisory.
  • Quoting all4hurricanes:
    I really don't care if GW exists people are trashing the world and we're not doing nearly enough to stop it *coughRoncough*
    conservation makes sense no matter what side of the debate your on...

    "It reminds me of the Global Cooling, or the Nuclear Winter, scare 50 years ago."

    Maybe you need to go back and read some of these papers you claim to be summarizing. Nuclear winter was a prediction based on the aftermath of a global nuclear war. Which, in case you didn't know, hasn't happened.

    Quoting Cotillion:



    I third this notion.


    Um, no one said that conservation makes no sense. If you actually read what I said, it should be obvious that my comments were aimed at alarmist democratic political figures, biased/alarmist democrat citizens, and Jeff as well. Even to the naked eye, it sickeningly obvious that Master's is trying to keep this alleged "crisis" burning. There are highly scientific arguments against Global Warming. I will NOT honor Jeff's views as if he is some kind of weather God. Sure, he is a very reputable meteorologist. However, his views on Global Warming are completly partistian and he shouldn't be drilling these ideas in to the heads of the misinformed. For that BS, one can flock to MSNBC (Biased Liberal Media).

    And again, I will stress that I DID NOT claim in any way that a little conservation is not logical. However, these alarmed politicians, and the "Global Warming Crisis" is just one gigantic JOKE.
    "However, his views on Global Warming are completly partistian and he shouldn't be drilling these ideas in to the heads of the misinformed."

    And Rush Limbaugh isn't partisan?

    That might be the most hilarious thing I've heard all year.

    Sure, Jeff does perhaps have some particular views which may be questionable to some. I myself disagree with both his content and phrasing on more than one occasion. But, it's his own blog; he's entitled to say what he wants. Just as I am entitled to not read it and not comment. Freedom is duly a wonderful thing.

    And a reputed meteorologist... against a talk show host.

    Hmm, I know who I'd rather believe.




    Interesting surface low in Gulf....Sunday Feb 22

    06Z GFS




    12Z GFS

    Quoting Ron5244:


    Um, no one said that conservation makes no sense. If you actually read what I said, it should be obvious that my comments were aimed at alarmist Democratic political figures, alarmist democrats, and Jeff as well. Even to the naked eye, it sickeningly obvious that Master's is trying to keep this alleged "crisis" burning. There are highly scientific arguments against Global Warming. I will NOT honor Jeff's views as if he is some kind of weather God. Sure, he is a very reputable meteorologist. However, his views on Global Warming are completly partistian and he shouldn't be drilling these ideas in to the heads of the misinformed. For that BS, one can flock to MSNBC (Biased Liberal Media).
    Is agreeing with Doc on this Issue mandatory to participating in his blog discussion?

    Whew, good. I didn't think it was.



    "There are highly scientific arguments against Global Warming."

    Which you apparently eschew in favor of right wing bloviations.
    I guess the editorial boards of Nature, Journal of Climate and Journal of Remote Sensing are filled with the "uniformed" who just don't understand all the "highly scientific arguments" put forth by true scientists like Rush Limbuagh.
    Again, one must take a sharp inhale of breath and deal with the hard facts...

    'Alternative version

    It is 103 days, 2 hours, 54 minutes and 23 seconds until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)'

    Countdown

    (If that doesn't work, then try this: Link for your own countdown, perhaps to where you are rather than my set Cape Verde island point.)
    Sorry Ron if a offended you or misinterpreted you and thanks everyone, I don't think the blog has been this unanimous since the discuss of retirement over Gustav
    Quoting rwdobson:
    "There are highly scientific arguments against Global Warming."

    Which you apparently eschew in favor of right wing bloviations.


    Well, my friend. We all can favor each argument in favor of right or left. However, this is NOT the source for biased left information. It is not Jeff's job to corrupt the innocent minds of people flocking here simply for concrete and factual weather updates. If Jeff wants to continuing to do so, he should just create himself a nice political blog.

    You know, I really wish this blog turned anit-GW just for a few minutes. I'd laugh to see you arguging with extremly biased left wing politics, and I'd laugh even harder at how you would completly change your stance on whether or not this is Jeff's time and place to compose such a BS article.

    As for you, Cotillion, that's Rush's JOB. His actual OCCUPATION is to be partistain. Jeff's however is to inform us with weather updates. Not BIASED LEFT WING information.
    http://mc-computing.com/qs/Global_Warming/index.html

    http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html
    "As for you, Cotillion, that's Rush's JOB. His actual OCCUPATION is to be partistain. Jeff's however is to inform us with weather updates. Not BIASED LEFT WING information."

    May that be; previous comment of 'educate yourself' with the Limbaugh link from someone you later say to be partisan doesn't lend you much legitimacy, does it?

    And while I respect your opinion Ron; I'm European. Trust me, America does not have left wing politics. In any sense.

    You have right wing, and centre-right. Perhaps you consider that a good thing. We have left wingers... even to the full bloodied commies... and they aren't just hiding under our beds either... ;)




    I've read alot of very good arguments from both perspectives, supported with science, on the topic of GW on this blog.

    Dr. Masters is kind enough to give us his views, which I for one appeiciate. Whether I agree with him or not.

    But useing Dr. Masters name in the same context as Rush L. and MSM or Dem or Rep. is a little more than a stretch of the imagination.

    The Jauary global recaps are now out..



    The sea ice graph I was ranting about yesterday didn't get updated today..
    Quoting Cotillion:
    "As for you, Cotillion, that's Rush's JOB. His actual OCCUPATION is to be partistain. Jeff's however is to inform us with weather updates. Not BIASED LEFT WING information."

    May that be; previous comment of 'educate yourself' with the Limbaugh link from someone you later say to be partisan doesn't lend you much legitimacy, does it?

    And while I respect your opinion Ron; I'm European. Trust me, America does not have left wing politics. In any sense.







    Oh, accuse me for providing this blog with a summarized persepective! : ) In reality, a political debate can not be presented in a manner free from partistain elements. However, it is NOT Jeff's place to present this partsitain arguement. Again, I have to repeat myself. But I get it, how dare I present this blog with a counter partistain argument to another partistian argument.
    OK...I'm having a hard time here....Can't decide who I agree with more....tkeith....or cottillion.....

    it's a tight race....they are both ssssoooo spot on....
    Oh and, Cotillion...

    We can say good-bye to those successful centre-right and right wing politics. Our new president will be absoultely SURE to tear this beautiful country to shreds under his left-wing administration.
    And...by the way...

    it's Jeff Masters' blog...

    he can post his dead grandma's obituary if he wants....
    "Not BIASED LEFT WING information."

    Yes, citing Nature and other refereed journals, that is such biased left wing information.

    Dr. Masters cites actual scientific journals. You cite a webpage called "gorerrors". Who's being partisan here?

    Dow slips nearly 300 points

    Financial gloom was everywhere Tuesday.

    On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average came within sight of its lowest levels in more than a decade. Financial shares were battered. And rattled investors clamored to buy rainy-day investments like gold and Treasury debt. Markets from Hong Kong to Stockholm to London also staggered lower.

    It was a global wave of selling spurred by rising worries about how banks, automakers - entire countries - would fare in a deepening recession.

    "If we get substantially below 800 then look out below," said Marc Groz, chief investment officer at Topos, a risk-advisory firm in Greenwich, Connecticut.

    "The administration is great at floating the rumors, but we need concrete plans to back that up," said Ryan Larson, head equity trader at Voyageur Asset Management. "Without any further concreted details, the market's really left to wonder. And in this environment, they wonder the worst-case scenario."

    Link
    Vort...there oughta be plenty of Treasury debt available to buy....
    Quoting Ron5244:
    Oh and, Cotillion...

    We can say good-bye to those successful centre-right and right wing politics. Our new president will be absoultely SURE to tear this beautiful country to shreds under his left-wing administration.


    If you start getting riots in the streets from trade unions, nuclear disarmament being on the agenda, and tax exceeding 40% - then I'll entertain your thoughts about a left wing government.
    That extra-tropical low is certainly an impressive system.
    Quoting Skyepony:
    The Jauary global recaps are now out..



    The sea ice graph I was ranting about yesterday didn't get updated today..


    Nice graph, Skye.

    Though, I do have to be extremely pedantic... the extratropical systems affecting us weren't tropical in the truest sense. In fact, not tropical at all aside the name.

    It should be red not orange.

    Yes.. okay, perhaps I am just in one of those moods :)
    Quoting rwdobson:
    "Not BIASED LEFT WING information."

    Yes, citing Nature and other refereed journals, that is such biased left wing information.

    Dr. Masters cites actual scientific journals. You cite a webpage called "gorerrors". Who's being partisan here?



    Oops! Guess you must have missed that first link, huh? It really is a good read foe those who are willing. Gorerrors was there for some of us colorful people who enjoy a brighter, less dull site (as the one above). See, I think of these things! Oh yeah, and regardless of how "partistian" it may be, at least the inoformation is there for people seeking it. Apparently so, we have meteoroligst that try to force feed it to innocent and unseeking readers. Now that's just not right. Hey! Maybe its...LEFT! =]
    There are actually only about a dozen people on the planet who can use the word 'pedantic' correctly in a sentence.....
    Quoting presslord:
    There are actually only about a dozen people on the planet who can use the word 'pedantic' correctly in a sentence.....


    I hope I qualify then... ;)

    Same goes for semi colons actually. Even some very well established authors and writers have admitted that they are unsure on their correct usage.

    Ah, from meteorology to global warming to politics to grammar and semantics...

    What a wide array of issues we have tonight. ;)
    #794

    I haven't been innocent or unseeking in 40 years...lol. But I appriciate your concern.

    From the tone of your comments probably wouldn't hurt to check your blood pressure.

    See, I'm concerned about you too.
    I went to the other page too. You still haven't explained why Nature and other peer-reviewed journals are "biased" but websites without any real citations are "good science".
    799. IKE
    103 days....
    7 hours....
    14 minutes...and the Atlantic tropical season starts.
    By the way, the "co2 is only a small fraction of the atmosphere, so it can't be important" argument is a crock. What is significant is the increase in CO2 concentration, and the resulting increase in IR absorption. Doesn't really matter what the actual concentration number is.
    801. IKE
    Quoting IKE:
    103 days....
    7 hours....
    13 minutes...and the Atlantic tropical season starts.


    Ike, may we have the pleasure of a dual-countdown once June 1st has been and gone?

    To the end of the hurricane season and the start of the football season?

    Two events that not many a man can argue at the joyous connotations of...
    poor innocent tkeith...
    804. IKE
    Quoting Cotillion:


    Ike, may we have the pleasure of a dual-countdown once June 1st has been and gone?

    To the end of the hurricane season and the start of the football season?

    Two events that not many a man can argue at the joyous connotations of...


    Yo bud...lol.......
    Ike!! Good ole bud.....sir.....
    806. IKE
    Quoting presslord:
    Ike!! Good ole bud.....sir.....


    LOL....I wonder whatever happened to him....can't even remember his screen-name now.

    Winter returns to the Florida panhandle...Friday Night
    Clear. Lows 27 to 32.
    Hello sir!

    And how is life and weather in the Panhandle?

    And Press, if you have any weather above 10C (Or around 50F, let's say), if you could pass along in my general direction, it would be greatly appreciated...
    Quoting rwdobson:
    I went to the other page too. You still haven't explained why Nature and other peer-reviewed journals are "biased" but websites without any real citations are "good science".


    Any "real" citations? Oh I get it, the citations of the liberal pro-GW sites are REAL. But the right wing arguements have to be FAKE! Gotcha. Don't you see all the bias in that? Well, I believe you just provided me with a rather fine example. You. You paint such an ugly biased picture for your left wingin' party mates.

    And tkeith, my blood pressure is just beautiful! Thanks for addressing that though. Witnessing such stupitidy does do some damage! ; )

    How about your blood pressure, old man?
    809. IKE
    60 degrees outside...clouds increasing.
    Quoting IKE:
    103 days....
    7 hours....
    14 minutes...and the Atlantic tropical season starts.


    Hey Ike I've been doing ya job for past few months counting down till Hurricane season.
    Good Lord, its getting close already.
    811. IKE
    Quoting CybrTeddy:


    Hey Ike I've been doing ya job for past few months counting down till Hurricane season.
    Good Lord, its getting close already.


    Yeah, I see you on here. Won't be long now til the season starts.
    Soon enough, it'll be time to dust up the SST and shear maps...

    'and on the 14th week before hurricane season (said quickly, keep the tune in mind...), my true forecaster said to me... a list of the season's names on my computer screen...'
    #808

    I keep it under control by not getting too worked up over the little things...

    Thanks for askin...
    cott...I think it's about that here...and, frankly, I find it kinda chilly.....
    815. IKE
    Quoting Cotillion:
    Soon enough, it'll be time to dust up the SST and shear maps...

    'and on the 14th week before hurricane season (said quickly, keep the tune in mind...), my true forecaster said to me... a list of the season's names on my computer screen...'


    I'm looking forward to the season. Always enjoyed following systems.....plenty of crow in the freezer........
    816. IKE
    WOW....

    Quoting IKE:


    I'm looking forward to the season. Always enjoyed following systems.....plenty of crow in the freezer........
    At least you wont have to deal with the "I" named storm this year Ike...At least I hope you dont...you know what I mean...lol.
    tkeith....you are a way better man than I.....your restraint is an inspiration....
    Cotillion~ I wonder how long they went around about that. The extratropical crowd would have a good argument since atleast one of those storms was totally warm core when it passed just south of Greenland.

    WE paraded the SST maps earlier today:)

    Tampaspin~ The ones Pat & I posted were the same.. the keys threw you again. Mine looked way hotter for all the red but notice the temp keys & they read pretty much the same.
    820. IKE
    Quoting tkeith:
    At least you wont have to deal with the "I" named storm this year Ike...At least I hope you dont...you know what I mean...lol.


    I hear ya.....
    I wish had a powerful cat 5 hurricane with my name...with a pressure of 500mb...and then goes out to sea.
    Quoting presslord:
    poor innocent tkeith...


    Now I have to read back.. those words just don't fit together.
    Quoting Ron5244:


    Any "real" citations? Oh I get it, the citations of the liberal pro-GW sites are REAL. But the right wing arguements have to be FAKE! Gotcha. Don't you see all the bias in that? Well, I believe you just provided me with a rather fine example. You. You paint such an ugly biased picture for your left wingin' party mates.

    And tkeith, my blood pressure is just beautiful! Thanks for addressing that though. Witnessing such stupitidy does do some damage! ; )

    How about your blood pressure, old man?
    whoah! calm down man! this is not a battle. Try to be LESS rude next time.
    Quoting IKE:


    105/90 today woot!
    Quoting Ron5244:


    Well, my friend. We all can favor each argument in favor of right or left. However, this is NOT the source for biased left information. It is not Jeff's job to corrupt the innocent minds of people flocking here simply for concrete and factual weather updates. If Jeff wants to continuing to do so, he should just create himself a nice political blog.

    You know, I really wish this blog turned anit-GW just for a few minutes. I'd laugh to see you arguging with extremly biased left wing politics, and I'd laugh even harder at how you would completly change your stance on whether or not this is Jeff's time and place to compose such a BS article.

    As for you, Cotillion, that's Rush's JOB. His actual OCCUPATION is to be partistain. Jeff's however is to inform us with weather updates. Not BIASED LEFT WING information.


    Who is this Moron?
    I may not agree with everything Jeff says, but I have to admit.. I would not trash his ideas either.

    This has to be that idi*t from yesterday.. pang*** something or other.
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Who is this Moron?
    I may not agree with everything Jeff says, but I have to admit.. I would not trash his ideas either.

    This has to be that idi*t from yesterday.. pang*** something or other.
    I didn't think troll season opened til June...oh well what do I know.
    Quoting Ron5244:

    ..It is not Jeff's job to corrupt the innocent minds of people flocking here simply for concrete and factual weather updates..
    Quoting Orcasystems:
    Who is this Moron?
    I may not agree with everything Jeff says, but I have to admit.. I would not trash his ideas either.

    This has to be that idi*t from yesterday.. pag*** something or other.

    I suspect he has confused a blog with a tutorial. In any case, I sort of liked the idea of having my innocent mind corrupted.
    Cannot say more than that. I am still practicing giving up the stir stick for Lent.
    Quoting tkeith:
    I didn't think troll season opened til June...oh well what do I know.


    There is always the early bird who catches the worm :)

    I am still having trouble with the other remark??
    Quoting presslord:
    poor innocent tkeith...
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    There is always the early bird who catches the worm :)

    I am still having trouble with the other remark??
    Quoting presslord:
    poor innocent tkeith...

    Hmmm...tkeith are you another one of those innocent minds that has been corrupted? Perhaps we should start a club.
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Quoting Ron5244:

    ..It is not Jeff's job to corrupt the innocent minds of people flocking here simply for concrete and factual weather updates..

    I suspect he has confused a blog with a tutorial. In any case, I sort of liked the idea of having my innocent mind corrupted.
    Cannot say more than that. I am still practicing giving up the stir stick for Lent.

    Hmmm true.. I haven't been corrupted to much lately.... mind you.. I have had my mind shut down a few times... Presslord in a dress.. Presslord in a Bikini...RTLSNK as Cupid.... RTLSNK as a Genie... Mind shut down for self preservation of sanity.
    Quoting KEHCharleston:

    Hmmm...tkeith are you another one of those innocent minds that has been corrupted? Perhaps we should start a club.
    "innocent and unseeking" I think were his discription of us on here...I've been neither for 40 years...
    BTW... when did having your mind and body being corrupted... become a bad thing?
    I was innocent...'til I met Orca....he corrupted me...
    Quoting IKE:
    WOW....



    I'll second that! Winds are analyzed at 93 kts, pressure at 965 mbs. That is quite a storm out there.

    Quoting presslord:
    I was innocent...'til I met Orca....he corrupted me...


    I might point out...I am wearing a halo... you were wearing a dress. Whom corrupted whom?

    Yea?!?!?! well....my cleavage was more impressive than your halo....
    Im ready for hurricane season!! fire up the storms could a depression form in the next few days anywherer???
    I see everyone is stimulated today.Chavez an Castro move over ,here comes America.Global warming and free health care and everything free as far as eye can see.Change we can believe in!!
    When does the WMO release retired names for the Atlantic this year should be interesting, I wonder if the won't retire Hanna just because Haiti's unprepared like with Gordon in 94
    neither me...nor orca....are likely to be mistaken for teenagers....
    "mental midget, innocent, unseeking"...I did get a good fart poem in my WU mail...I'll send it to you if you want.
    tkeith....please send it to me....please....
    ***pangean****
    That's the name I was trying to remember. That's "ITS" other handle on here.
    838 doubt it next to nothing forms in Feb-Apr in the atlantic
    try to entertain yourself with other oceanic storms, ex-tropical lows, and tropical waves for the next few months
    Quoting presslord:
    neither me...nor orca....are likely to be mistaken for teenagers....


    There's emotional maturity and physical maturity. And true, in either case you won't be mistaken for teenagers.
    Quoting pangean:


    There's emotional maturity and physical maturity. And true, in either case you won't be mistaken for teenagers.


    I wish :(
    Re: post #846.....I'm really flattered by your little crush on me...
    World Meteorological Organization meeting is usually around April or May
    Could I be mistaken for a teenager?!
    press...ck mail
    tkeith....that's the most beautiful thing I've ever read.....
    Quoting presslord:
    tkeith....that's the most beautiful thing I've ever read.....
    LOL...I was serious pangean, I wont send it unless you ask.
    Quoting tkeith:
    LOL...I was serious pangean, I wont send it unless you ask.


    Aww, now your just teasing him.. be good or he will come back as his alter ego.
    Quoting presslord:
    Re: post #846.....I'm really flattered by your little crush on me...


    Yeah, 10-years olds are always imagining crushes. BTW - I don't swing that way. There are, however, blogs out there for people with your proclivities and whaleboy seems to be fascinated with your cleavage. Just to be clear, I have nothing against alternate life styes.
    Quoting tkeith:
    At least you wont have to deal with the "I" named storm this year Ike...At least I hope you dont...you know what I mean...lol.


    Ida? Ida replaced the monster Hurricane Isabel.
    My god that was a monster.

    In responce to Ike's picture, WoW! Impressive Extra-Tropical System, almost looks like its taking on tropical characteristics.
    Just been reading back on the comments throughout the day and there is one thing that I want to say. If you don't like a certain member's words or actions, then that is why the Wunderground administration added the "Ignore User" function under each comment posted. It will make things much easier for you so that you and everyone else can enjoy the blog.
    Quoting tkeith:
    LOL...I was serious pangean, I wont send it unless you ask.


    Again, I don't swing that way. Also, seems pretty creepy to be trying to pick up guys in a weather blog. My tolerance level is generally pretty high but I think that I'll just leave you boys to do your thing. Again, nothing wrong with it, just not for me. Night all.
    I remember Ida's predecessor who could forget she put our house in disrepair for nearly four years. One of only a handful of times we lost power and the only hurricane I've ever lived through. (or at least a teste of what a hurricane is like for she was only a TS by me)
    857. Good point cchsdude. The trolls are out.
    Innis

    click for loop

    the monster off the east coast is more impressive.
    Mt Redoubt seem to be behaving like a lady for now.
    What do you guys think about the chances of the storm before Kyle to be included in the hurricane database?
    Great web cam shot. What a sunset.
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington, New Zealand
    Gale Warning for Former Tropical Cyclone Innis
    0:00 AM UTC February 18 2009
    ======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Tropical Cyclone Innis (996 hPa) located at 26.0S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 20 knots.

    Gale force winds
    ----------------------
    180 miles from the center of low in southeast semicircle

    60 miles from the center of low in northwest semi-circle.
    865. Skyepony

    That's a perty-looking storm out there... of course it's not necessarily a good thing for all those fishermen...
    Another look at the storm, from a Model's perspective :)
    I wish I knew how to post this, but here's the link.
    Weather Model - North Atlantic Surface Pressure and Wind
    Innis, a fleating wish by many an Australian. Quick in every sense.
    Skyepony: Innis was forecasted by Nadi to head a little towards Brisbane.. but it decided to head south instead.
    Hades~ yeah it's a shame. The way it played out they had heavy rains just offshore. If only everything had been shifted a little west.

    So was Innis a boy or a girl?
    That Extra-Tropical feature in the Atlantic has gusts up to upper end Category 3 strength and pressure of 952 MB, Reminds me of a Nor'easter.
    looks like a superstorm,just over water...
    Evening!

    Thought i'd post todays ENSO Update as it hints at a possible NINO forming in late spring.

    NOTE: Some NCEP models i viewed earlier today actually showed a fully developed NINO in the not to distant future. Adrian
    Skyepony: Innis is a boy's name
    Quoting hurricane23:
    Evening!

    Thought i'd post todays ENSO Update as it hints at a possible NINO forming in late spring.

    Something to moniter in the coming months. Adrian


    I suspected this might happen. Still, isn't it unusual for El Nino or La Nina to rapidly develop during the spring months? Don't the events usually reach their peak during the winter?
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    I suspected this might happen. Still, isn't it unusual for El Nino or La Nina to rapidly develop during the spring months? Don't the events usually reach their peak during the winter?


    As i stated above some of the NCEP models i viewed earlier today are actually showing a fully developed NINO come this cane season.

    Andrew came during a NINO year.
    Tornadoes and Southerners going through a divorce have a lot in common. In either case, you know someone is going to lose a trailer.
    If you hear a Southerner exclaim, "Hey, y'all, watch this!" stay out of his way. These are likely the last words he will ever say.
    "The only other all-time coldest temperature record set at these cities this decade was the -44°F recorded in Grand Forks, North Dakota on 1/30/2004. By contrast, 49 all-time high temperature marks have been set this decade."

    Temperatures are recorded outside urban areas because that's how they were recorded before urbanization. How could you compare and show a trend between temps above paved highway baking in the sun to hundred years of temps in a grassy field? Very easily albeit invalid. Here's an analogy I've posted elsewhere.

    Here's a secret about global warming you won't hear in MSM. In 1990s National Weather Service modernized and automated its weather observers under ASOS (Automated Surface Observation Station). The new thermometers have a warm bias and we hear 1998 was warmest year on record and this decade the warmest decade on record. In classic fashion NWS says the new temps are more accurate and old thermometers had a cold bias. Does it really matter when you compare apples to oranges? So pre-1990s was really warmer than recorded but we compare the accurate temps with the cold-biased temps and declare global warming. Global warming is a hoax on many levels.
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
    EXTRATROPICAL LOW, FORMER INNIS
    18:00 PM NZT February 18 2009
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Tropical Cyclone Innis (998 hPa) located at 29.0S 160.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 20 knots.

    Gale force winds
    ----------------------
    180 miles from the center of low in southeast through northeast.
    Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    Tropical Disturbance Summary (0730z 18FEB)
    ==========================================
    An area of convection (94S) located at 8.1S 72.3E or 50 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows pronounced cyclonic turning about a poorly defined low level circulation center. Water vapor imagery indicates that the convection is shallow and sheared to the west. An old 1335z Quikscat image reveals strong cross-equatorial westerlies to the north of a weak circulation, with Diego Garcia located in an area of strong speed convergence. Diego Garcia is reporting sustained surface westerlies of 15 knots, gusting to 22 knots and center sea level pressure near 1007 MB.

    Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. Because the convection has yet to consolidate, and the low level circulation center remains broad and ill-defined in visible imagery, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
    Good morning!
    Today will see the potential for a severe outbreak over a large portion of the SE with a more concentrated area of potential tornadic activity over central Alabama.


    Photobucket

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1159 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

    VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN
    MS...CNTRL AL AND SRN AL......

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
    VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND ERN GULF COAST STATES......


    ...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/ERN GULF COAST STATES...
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN STATES WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE MS
    VALLEY TODAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD
    ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. SOUTHEAST OF THE
    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AN IMPRESSIVE 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
    ORIENTED ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS ELEVATED
    THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE JET. THE SRN EXTENT OF
    THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST EWD ACROSS TN...NRN AL AND NRN GA
    THROUGH MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN TN...NRN MS AND NRN AL
    SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A HAIL THREAT
    WITH THE ACTIVITY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE
    SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR ERN MS ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO
    WRN GA. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
    APPEARING LIKELY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN AL AND SW GA. THIS LINE
    OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE FL PANHANDLE AND THE NRN FL PENINSULA
    DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

    AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM SRN LA
    EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO WRN AL. THIS AREA SHOULD BE
    MOSTLY FREE OF CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY ALLOWING FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF AN INSTABILITY/THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS
    THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
    TO INITIATE FIRST IN NCNTRL AND NERN AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
    THE ACTIVITY EXPANDING WSWWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALONG THE
    INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
    CNTRL AL SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 80 TO
    90 KT/ WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 250 SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA
    TO 450 M2/S2 EAST OF MONTGOMERY. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
    FOR DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG
    TORNADOES. AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
    AREA...THE SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS DISCRETE RESULTING IN A
    PERSISTENT TORNADO THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
    FURTHER WEST
    SOUTHEAST INTO SCNTRL MS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO/HAIL
    THREAT MAY ALSO INITIATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
    COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SRN AL AND SW AL AS THUNDERSTORMS
    BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING. A TRANSITION TO A MORE
    LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS MAY OCCUR WITH THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
    INCREASING. ALTHOUGH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST IN SW GA
    DURING THE LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ERN PART OF THE
    SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
    THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN
    THE PERIOD.


    ..BROYLES.. 02/18/2009

    Photobucket



    (Check my blog for more information as the day progresses.)

    a frisky 55 degrees here in SWFLA
    Cold Front WAVES
    high of 59 on Friday? Come on. Look for water temps to stay near 60 for this little surf event. Spring has not sprung yet. All we want to do is catch some two foot surf, a couple waist high lines, feel the glide.
    Good morning Surfmom!
    It's gonna get cold...one more time:



    Photobucket

    Photobucket

    Kinda unusual Surfmom...we're slightly cooler over here on the East coast this morning at 52.

    Maine is not the only state that has been hit with cold weather. In Hawaii has been two days of below 65 degree weather (63 degrees at 3:00 am).
    Quoting hurricane23:


    As i stated above some of the NCEP models i viewed earlier today are actually showing a fully developed NINO come this cane season.

    Andrew came during a NINO year.


    Nino would be most wonderful. Not sure if it will happen this year (They said the same thing last year, with ENSO you've gotta take these things with a pinch of salt), but it's gotta happen sometime.
    Vortix "Good morning Surfmom!
    It's gonna get cold...one more time:"

    PROMISE?
    #889....That's a photo of ice in Hawaii??

    Vortix "Good morning Surfmom!
    It's gonna get cold...one more time:"

    PROMISE?



    Duhh...at least one more time?
    ROFL

    Who knows?
    The way this winter has been going we could be dealing with cold weather well into March!
    ARGH

    Quoting vortfix:
    Vortix "Good morning Surfmom!
    It's gonna get cold...one more time:"

    PROMISE?



    Duhh...at least one more time?
    ROFL

    Who knows?
    The way this winter has been going we could be dealing with cold weather well into March!
    ARGH


    Brrrrr & grrrrr............... I can hear my Mango trees wailing in agony.....
    Quoting vortfix:
    Good morning Surfmom!
    It's gonna get cold...one more time:



    Photobucket

    Photobucket



    Snow?
    As per the latest update...the SPC has greatly expanded the Moderate Risk area:



    Photobucket



    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0656 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

    VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...GA
    AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
    FROM LA INTO PARTS OF TN...GA...NRN FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CNTRL AND SE U.S. TODAY/
    TONIGHT...ON SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS
    THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. S OF THE TROUGH...EXISTING SRN BRANCH
    JET...NOW EXTENDING FROM NM TO AR...WILL DEVELOP ESEWD. THIS WILL
    ENHANCE MID LVL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES TODAY...WITH MORE
    SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

    AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK NE
    TO NEAR LK HURON THIS EVE AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CONSOLIDATES AND
    ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE OH...TN...AND LWR MS VLYS. AHEAD OF THE
    FRONT...LATEST HAND AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A
    CONFLUENCE ZONE ATTM EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEM SW TO NEAR SHV.
    SATELLITE PW AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE MAY MARK WRN
    LIMIT OF POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS WINDS APPEARED TO HAVE
    VEERED BEHIND IT...AND DRYING IS OCCURRING TO ITS W.

    ...TN VLY TO CNTRL GULF CST/GA/N FL...
    POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
    THURSDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE.

    LATEST SATELLITE PW DISPLAY SHOWS PW AXIS WITH VALUES AOA 1 INCH
    EXTENDING FROM SE TX AND LA NE INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS MOISTURE AXIS
    SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES
    TODAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL OVER REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING
    TROUGH.

    ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE LIKELIHOOD FOR
    STORMS...SEVERAL FACTORS ARGUE AGAINST MORE THAN ISOLD ACTIVITY IN
    THE SLGT AND MDT RISK AREAS UNTIL PERHAPS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
    EVE. FIRST /1/ MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCSTS SHOW THAT MID LVL
    LAPSE RATES ARE AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODESTLY STEEP...WITH A
    WARM NOSE AROUND 750 MB. IN ADDITION.../2/ CLOUDS WITH S-DRIFTING
    SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE
    DAY NEAR THE GULF CST. THIRD /3/ DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
    WEAK AS UPLIFT LIKELY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF SRN
    STREAM JET...I.E. OVER THE OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

    NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TN
    VLY...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LVL CONFLUENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
    OVERCOME NEGATIVE FACTORS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCTD STORMS
    ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF LA...MS AND AL. A SEPARATE AREA
    OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG COLD FRONT IN
    TN/KY.

    GIVEN INTENSITY AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN DEEP WSWLY FLOW /SPEEDS AOA
    70 KTS AT 500 MB/...EXPECT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM WILL
    QUICKLY BECOME SVR SUPERCELLS. DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
    FLOW...LENGTH OF HODOGRAPHS /60-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR/ COULD YIELD
    ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH
    WIND.

    ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH UPON
    ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE
    SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...THOSE THAT FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
    CONFLUENCE BAND COULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVE AS /1/ MORE
    SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION AND /2/ LOW LVL MOISTURE
    INFLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. SOME OF
    THE STORMS COULD MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA AND N FL GIVEN
    DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.

    ..CORFIDI.. 02/18/2009



    (More details available on my blog)


    Surfmom get the board your going to have a strong wind out of the South West today with temps in the 70's ,,,,,,wow. Tomorrow it all changes but, enjoy today if your a surfer. PERFECT conditions.
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Surfmom get the board your going to have a strong wind out of the South West today with temps in the 70's ,,,,,,wow. Tomorrow it all changes but, enjoy today if your a surfer. PERFECT conditions.
    So Tampa, do ya think this will be our last big cold front of the season as some of the weather guys are saying?
    Quoting conchygirl:
    So Tampa, do ya think this will be our last big cold front of the season as some of the weather guys are saying?


    Nope 1 more coming late next week sorry! In my opinion.....at least thats what the Magic 8 ball says....LOL
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT!!!

    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Nope 1 more coming late next week sorry! In my opinion.....at least thats what the Magic 8 ball says....LOL
    I like the Magic Ball - keep 'um coming! :)
    LOok out Fisherman and boaters.....this is one strong System....WOW!



    If this was in August this would be a Cat 3
    102 Days till the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0953 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


    VALID 181553Z - 181730Z

    THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
    ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
    FOR A WW.


    VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TSTM
    DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN SHORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OVER WRN KY
    INTO NWRN TN AS OF 1540Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
    SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF FAIRLY RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
    WARMING/MOISTENING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS. MOREOVER...WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A BAND OF
    ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
    THROUGH IL/IND.

    BASED ON 12Z LIT SOUNDING...ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH
    MLCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF
    COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
    WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
    /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KT/ WITH GENERALLY
    LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
    SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
    HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
    CYCLONIC UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE EXPANDED FARTHER
    NWD IN KY AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.


    ..MEAD.. 02/18/2009

    could someone pleas also comment on the effects of urbanization and heat island effects on precipitation patterns. Floridas average rainfall has been dropping. this goes with draining of wetlands, increased ubanization and impervious surface, and population growth. Are there any causative lines to be drawn? Florida has grown significantly more urbanized, and my common sense tells me that less water on the landscape means less water in the air and changes in precipitation paterns. Florida has many non-frontal storms that drop considerable rain seasonally.
    Biff...water attracts more water. The more we have drained the FL wetland areas along with urbanization we have experienced worse and longer dry seasons. Less moisture.

    I don't know if there's a way to statistically figure that or chart it.

    908. GBlet
    Good morning! I think we need to be more adaptable instead of trying to change our surroundings to suit us. We will cause our own demise...
    Quoting biff4ugo:
    could someone pleas also comment on the effects of urbanization and heat island effects on precipitation patterns. Floridas average rainfall has been dropping. this goes with draining of wetlands, increased ubanization and impervious surface, and population growth. Are there any causative lines to be drawn? Florida has grown significantly more urbanized, and my common sense tells me that less water on the landscape means less water in the air and changes in precipitation paterns. Florida has many non-frontal storms that drop considerable rain seasonally.


    Biff i believe Florida's rainfall defict has purly been from a lack of Tropical Systems crossing the State or just bringing Rain. If one understands how rain falls in the summers thunderstorm season it's purly a collision of the afternoon or morning seabreezes.
    Just read the dialogue from last night and as always am impressed by what goes on after the night falls. Pangean seems to have mistaken good natured (and charity oriented for Portlight) fun for something else. Had to laugh that Presslord let the joke go on. Surfmom, good to see you thinking 60 degree water is surfing time. I did some diving off Catalina in 59 degree water - couldn't even breathe it was so cold (and in full wet suit.) I'm in Missouri and it's cold and the wind is blowing so hard I think you could surf on the Missouri river quite well - just be careful about the chunks of ice. As always, this is an engaging and worthwhile blog.
    PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1030 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

    ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE GULF
    COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...


    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
    OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

    THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

    CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
    WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
    SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
    SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
    SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI


    ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CUMBERLAND
    PLATEAU REGION SWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...

    STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE TRANSPORTING AN
    INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN
    VALLEY TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
    SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
    WHICH WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES
    THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

    THE COLD FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT WILL
    RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE
    COLD FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING WARM
    SECTOR. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW
    ECHO STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
    TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM
    LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE
    THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.


    THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
    SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
    RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.


    ..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Biff i believe Florida's rainfall defict has purly been from a lack of Tropical Systems crossing the State or just bringing Rain. If one understands how rain falls in the summers thunderstorm season it's purly a collision of the afternoon or morning seabreezes.
    I'm no weather expert. but back in the 70's and 80's we could set our clock by the afternoon rains. Remember they saying about buying swamp land in florida. Now there is hardly any left.
    I updated my Weather Blog yesterday and will do another this afternoon....but, all my Warnings and Watch Graphic and my analysis from yesterday is still very currnet and all the Graphics stay current.

    TampaSpin's Weather Blog Link
    Quoting geepy86:
    I'm no weather expert. but back in the 70's and 80's we could set our clock by the afternoon rains. Remember they saying about buying swamp land in florida. Now there is hardly any left.


    No question the heating of the day over wetlands would create a hot moist air mass to raise and cause left to help create thunderstorms but, we really have not had much in the way of tropical systems either is all i'm pointing out. We need Tropical systems as bad as that sounds.
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Surfmom get the board your going to have a strong wind out of the South West today with temps in the 70's ,,,,,,wow. Tomorrow it all changes but, enjoy today if your a surfer. PERFECT conditions.

    BINGO -- getting the office seatwork done (arrrvy) then quick domestics......(Hiss) and then a rendez vous w/King Neptune -- COLD FRONT WAVES w/out the chill -- Zephyr Wind is Cranking right now (Southwind) and we get on just fine.... his brother El Norte' will probably show tomorrow and we don't get along.
    Quoting geepy86:
    I'm no weather expert. but back in the 70's and 80's we could set our clock by the afternoon rains. Remember they saying about buying swamp land in florida. Now there is hardly any left.


    we are a TinderBox --- YoungBuck TRIED to fish in Myakka River this past Saturday....... he says it's pitiful -- drought has the water levels soo low -- said he could walk out into the lakes the furthest he can remember. Going to have some very cranky gators during mating season -- they're all going to be looking for water.
    Photobucket

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1110 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
    LARGE PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE

    EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
    500 PM CST.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
    GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
    KENTUCKY TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
    A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
    AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
    INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
    SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
    ANY SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE VERY RAPIDLY EWD. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
    LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
    INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.




    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1114 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AND CNTRL MS INTO NWRN AND W-CNTRL
    AL

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 181714Z - 181845Z

    THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
    WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
    AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.


    LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING
    CUMULUS BANDS ORIENTED WSW-ENE WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM W
    OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO CNTRL MS. WHILE
    BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
    LOWER 60S/...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF
    AROUND 500 J/KG. OF CONCERN TO STORM INITIATION ARE: 1/ WEAK
    CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT...AND 2/ INFERRED MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE
    AND RESULTING POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
    RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS. THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
    REGARD TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ADDITIONAL STORM
    DEVELOPMENT TO THE S OF ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE
    TN.

    ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE PRESENCE OF 60-70 KT
    DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT
    SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT /SOME SPLITTING/ WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
    WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

    ..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
    The Dry slot on Water Vapor looks very dangerous this afternoon.....that will fill in with Major Thunderstorms this evening....

    Heading to Tampa on the 9th I expect all cold fronts to cease by that time.
    BBL to work on my Update....BE SAFE and turn you Weather Radios on or go to my blog!!
    Quoting NEwxguy:
    Heading to Tampa on the 9th I expect all cold fronts to cease by that time.


    Gotta go but, i bet you bring a cold front with ya.....LOL!!
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Gotta go but, i bet you bring a cold front with ya.....LOL!!


    LOL,see ya Tampa,your probably right.
    905. biff4ugo 11:11 AM EST on February 18, 2009
    could someone pleas also comment on the effects of urbanization
    ...............................................
    "No Stewardship"

    Impact fees are pathetic.
    Urban planning is pathetic.
    Real Estate Lobby is crimminal.
    Sugar Industry belongs in Brazil.
    As some of our readers have already noticed, there was a significant problem with the daily sea ice data images on February 16. The problem arose from a malfunction of the satellite sensor we use for our daily sea ice products. Upon further investigation, we discovered that starting around early January, an error known as sensor drift caused a slowly growing underestimation of Arctic sea ice extent. The underestimation reached approximately 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) by mid-February. Sensor drift, although infrequent, does occasionally occur and it is one of the things that we account for during quality control measures prior to archiving the data. See below for more details.

    We have removed the most recent data and are investigating alternative data sources that will provide correct results. It is not clear when we will have data back online, but we are working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible
    Quoting Skyepony:
    link to the sea ice thing.


    For everyone:
    The way they can tell is by comparing to another satellite method of determining sea ice extent.


    Caption: "Daily total Arctic sea ice extent between 1 December 2008 and 12 February 2009 for Special Sensor Microwave/Imager SSM/I compared to the similar NASA Earth Observing System Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (EOS AMSR-E) sensor."

    With SSM/I being the method employed there.
    Quoting surfmom:


    we are a TinderBox --- YoungBuck TRIED to fish in Myakka River this past Saturday....... he says it's pitiful -- drought has the water levels soo low -- said he could walk out into the lakes the furthest he can remember. Going to have some very cranky gators during mating season -- they're all going to be looking for water.



    ...well....I completely undersand....

    I get pretty cranky during mating season myself....
    Some people might ask why we don't simply switch to the EOS AMSR-E sensor. AMSR-E is a newer and more accurate passive microwave sensor. However, we do not use AMSR-E data in our analysis because it is not consistent with our historical data. Thus, while AMSR-E gives us greater accuracy and more confidence on current sea ice conditions, it actually provides less accuracy on the long-term changes over the past thirty years. There is a balance between being as accurate as possible at any given moment and being as consistent as possible through long time periods. Our main scientific focus is on the long-term changes in Arctic sea ice. With that in mind, we have chosen to continue using the SSM/I sensor, which provides the longest record of Arctic sea ice extent.
    ...............................................
    Skye
    Please elaborate...
    Quoting theshepherd:
    Some people might ask why we don't simply switch to the EOS AMSR-E sensor. AMSR-E is a newer and more accurate passive microwave sensor. However, we do not use AMSR-E data in our analysis because it is not consistent with our historical data. Thus, while AMSR-E gives us greater accuracy and more confidence on current sea ice conditions, it actually provides less accuracy on the long-term changes over the past thirty years. There is a balance between being as accurate as possible at any given moment and being as consistent as possible through long time periods. Our main scientific focus is on the long-term changes in Arctic sea ice. With that in mind, we have chosen to continue using the SSM/I sensor, which provides the longest record of Arctic sea ice extent.
    ...............................................
    Skye
    Please elaborate...


    Shepherd i am very impressed! That is some tremdous knowledge. EXCELLENT..keep up the great work!
    thesheperd~ I think they are pretty clear here. They are in it for the long haul, what has been the trend since they have been able to measure it. If the newer satalite shows they were always 2500km off (looking at the graph it's probibly way closer of a difference then my example & more like minute differences occuring when ice 1st changes it's rate of increase or decrease) when you switch to a new satellite that may make a jump one way or other in the data. It makes for rough research too. All the years back will have to be adjusted for. That raised more questions of accuracy and an added chance of error in the conversions of all those years datas. Either way~ useing the old satellite brings excellent consistancy, that tiny error has nothing to do with long term trend. Ships did sail through the NW passage the last 2 years. The only problem is what happens when the old satellite sensor dies... we may see them close the book & start again with the begining of the new satellite & overlay the graphs of both when they both measured.

    This also looks to answer the question of do they only triple check the data when it looks way off...Daily..yes but it all is heavily checked before arciving.

    The way it dopped on the 16th (I posted a link to the saved version in this thread somewhere)..I can only imagine some of the emails they got. Glad that was an error..
    SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 307 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
    SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 204 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
    TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 300 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
    Severe Weather Coming and Starting up.....Problems coming.!!!


    TS The tremenous knowledge comes from the link I left~ if you read the whole thing from start to finish & not just the finish as Shep posted it all is a little clearer..

    I think some people pretend the satellites don't exist when it comes to learning about our climate & a few seem resistant to even learn about them (TS I'm not refuring to you). Clouds especially can be a problem in the older ones & evey effort is made to account for that~ using other data when clouds are present before arciving. Comparing satellite data gives us a much better picture & more correct data as to the changes we know are occuring through migration & actual ground observations. It also helps to keep some ground observations triple checked as well (bad buoys & stations gone nuts). Like Dr Masters' sharing of the study where satellites were used for cherry picking ground observations not near developed areas & checking their long term trend still shows overall warming. That is yet another way to show urban heat effect isn't the smoking gun here. I've been amazed by the number that quickly skimmed maybe part of the blog entry & started screaming but the urban heat island effect is real!
    Quoting Skyepony:
    TS The tremenous knowledge comes from the link I left~ if you read the whole thing from start to finish & not just the finish as Shep posted it all is a little clearer..

    I think some people pretend the satellites don't exist when it comes to learning about our climate & a few seem resistant to even learn about them (TS I'm not refuring to you). Clouds especially can be a problem in the older ones & evey effort is made to account for that~ using other data when clouds are present before arciving. Comparing satellite data gives us a much better picture & more correct data as to the changes we know are occuring through migration & actual ground observations. It also helps to keep some ground observations triple checked as well (bad buoys & stations gone nuts). Like Dr Masters' sharing of the study where cherry picking ground observations not near developed areas & checking their long term trend still shows overall warming. That is yet another way to show urban heat effect isn't the smoking gun here. I've been amazed by the number that quickly skimmed maybe part of the blog entry & started screaming but the urban heat island effect is real!


    Thanks Sky! I was just giving the good Sheperd a pat on the back for a good job of sometimes difficult and complicated reading that he did well at comprehending. Good job Shep!
    TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 314 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
    TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 213 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
    You can see the Dry line area is starting to cave in with some very strong Storms.....Problems coming as the Jet is dipping quick also....