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Rare South Atlantic subtropical cyclone forms; severe weather season in U.S. underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on March 10, 2010

A rare weather event is underway in the South Atlantic Ocean, where the basin's 7th recorded tropical or subtropical cyclone of all-time has formed. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90Q) off the coast of Brazil, near 30S 48W, attained a well-defined surface circulation, top wind speeds of tropical depression strength (35 mph), a warm core in the bottom portion of the atmosphere, and a cold core aloft last night. If this storm had been in the North Atlantic, there is a good chance it would have been named Subtropical Depression One. However, tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that there is no official naming of depressions or storms done. The cyclone had top winds of at least 35 mph as seen on an ASCAT pass at 7:02 am EST this morning (Figure 2), and satellite estimates of the storm's intensity topped out at 40 mph (minimum subtropical storms strength) last night. This morning, the satellite estimates are showing that the system has weakened to a 35 mph tropical depression. There is some moderate wind shear interfering with development, and sea surface temperatures are about 25°C, which is about 1°C below what is typically needed to support a tropical storm. The storm is headed eastward out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The models show the storm will lose its tropical characteristics and get absorbed by a frontal system by Saturday.


Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image of the Brazilian Invest 90Q.


Figure 2. Satellite-measured winds from ASCAT clearly show the circulation of the cyclone in this pass from 7:02 am EST on March 10, 2010. Top winds as seen be ASCAT were 30 knots (35 mph), just below the 40 mph needed for it to be a tropical storm. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms). Today's storm is located close to where Catarina formed.

Severe weather season begins
It's March, and that means severe weather season will get underway in earnest for the Midwest U.S., and powerful spring storm systems draw warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico northward, to collide with cold, dry air from Canada. It's been a quiet early season, with only 42 tornadoes reported thus far this year (as of Sunday), compared to a normal 70 - 100 twisters. There was only one tornado in the U.S. in February, in a San Joaquin Valley oilfield in California two weekends ago. A year ago, there were 36 February tornadoes, and the year's deadliest tornado occurred on Feb. 10, 2009, in Lone Grove, Oklahoma, where eight people died in a storm with winds estimated at 170 mph. But thanks to a very wet winter and a continued active jet stream pattern that will pull strong storms through the Midwestern U.S. this month, expect at least an average March for severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley today, in association with a strong cold front that will be plowing through the region. Strong thuderstorms capable of generating damaging winds and large hail should develop along the front from southeast Kansas through eastern Oklahoma into NE Texas by middle/late afternoon. The storms should consolidate into broken bands and move into Missouri and and Arkansas by early evening. Isolated tornadoes are also possible in the entire "slight" risk area.


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Hurricane Hugo talk
I'm presenting a talk to a class at the University of Michigan this morning on my 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo. You can listen in live starting at about 10:10 - 10:15 am EST by pointing your browser to http://samson.lecturetools.org/. You'll need to have Apple Quicktime installed. If all goes well, the talk will be recorded and you can view it later, as well.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks DOC for mentioning this potential severe wx risk. Firday maybe a bigger outbreak!
Thanks for the update, Dr. M!

I hope all does go well, and your talk is recorded... I would love to be able to watch it.
Very interesting stuff Down South. When one compares the last event in 2004 that was also a rough year In the North Hemp. Atlantic also..........HEMMM.....lets hope there it was just by chance the last time.
Thank You Dr. and Good Luck this morning; will be interesting to see how the severe weather patterns emerge over the next several weeks and whether April will bring a greater threat based upon the relative position of the jet stream and warmer temps.
Thank you very much for posting on 90Q. Who will issue forecasts on this system?
Looks very Tropical for now i would say!

12Z update on 90Q

SL 90 2010031012 BEST 0 297S 476W 40 1000 LO


SAB has dvorak 2.0 as a tropical system, TAFB has dvorak 2.5 as a subtropical system.

SL 90 201003101145 2980S 4750W SAB 2020 ///// MET8 CSC T
SL 90 201003101145 2990S 4760W TAFB 2525 ///// MET8 CSC S
NAM


GFS



LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE SOUTHEASTERN THREAT FOR FRIDAY....Keep your eyes to the sky in these Areas
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number SIX
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HUBERT (13-20092010)
16:00 PM Réunion March 10 2010
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hubert (998 hPa) located at 20.9S 49.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
=================
15 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 21.3S 47.9E - (Depression sur terre)
24 HRS: 21.5S 46.8E - (Depression sur terre)

Additional Information
=======================
The moderate tropical storm Hubert has been named by the Madagascar Meteorological Services at 1200z. MSLP has been adjusted 4 hPa higher than normal to take into account the high environmental pressure (set to 1013 hPa). Convection still remains quite fluctuating. The central dense overcast visible this morning has faded and a curve band feature takes place. Microwave imagery (TRMM at 0854z) shows a beginning of banding eye that justify the moderate tropical storm stage. With landfall expected to occur on the Malagasy coast next night (between Mananjary and Mahanoro), the system could rapidly decrease beyond 36 hrs.
Good Morning everyone. The Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Look who's coming in for "brunch"!!
Brazil Meteorological Services blog
=========================================

A cyclone very rare, extraordinary scientific point of view to our regional climate, still classified subtropical officially by the United States, but by our analysis has already evolved into tropical, acting in the coastline of Rio Grande do Sul. The latest data from called best track system, dawn, accuse it positioned to 29.5 degrees south latitude and 48 degrees longitude, very close to the previous six hours 29.9 degrees South and 48.1 ° West. Means that the center of the cyclone little changed position at dawn, a little to the North and Northwest. Already the satellite images, which provide an idea more updated, allege that the tropical cyclone began to depart more vigorously to the East, away more continent now daybreak.
Bastardi forecasts an active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Link
Morning all, Hey jeff9641 i have to hand it to you. you have been telling all about the severe wx coming to c fl thur and fri. And now it looks like a great poss. Great call!!!!
Climate:

Houston reached 80 degrees yesterday the first time we have seen 80 since November 15, 2009…now that is impressive this far south and gives a testament to just how cold this winter has been. The area has just suffered through one of the coldest winter periods on record and the month of February averaged significantly below normal. Houston recorded its 5th coldest February on record (6.9 degrees below average), Hobby its 3rd (8.4 degrees below average) and College Station its 5th (7.8 degrees below average). Victoria tied for its 2nd coldest February on record! Houston only had 2 days of temperatures above average during the entire month. From the period of Dec 1-Feb 28th (meteorological winter) Houston suffered its 6th coldest winter ever and the coldest since 1977-1978, Galveston its 5th coldest winter ever, and College Station its 6th coldest winter ever. Additionally, at Corpus Christi, the number of days that were at or above 70 in February 2010 was only 4…last year there were 26 with the average being 12.
I see a face. It's sticking out it's tongue! :p

Winter weather mocking us...

SPC report of hail this morning near Dallas...

...in the face of a monster inversion ?!?



(Unless you guys warmed some 15 C since 6 CST)

Add on: Hmmm, I guess evap cooling with precip could drop the temp of the pbl, which would allow for *some* buoyancy...seems like a reach, though.
Great lecture Dr. M; thanks for plugging the Blog............... :)
Good Talk,

The animations in PowerPoint do get tricky sometimes.

Thanks
Jackson and Lake Charles look ripe in the 12 Z soundings. Lake Charles has some shear, Jackson very little.

Jackson:



Lake Charles:

Quoting atmoaggie:
Jackson and Lake Charles look ripe in the 12 Z soundings. Lake Charles has some shear, Jackson very little.

Jackson:



Lake Charles:



Yeah, severe wx will explode over the next several hours in that region. Some long track tornadoes look likely. A bigger threat comes Friday and this may extend into Kentucky.
Little Rock is the middle of the highest CAPE by 2 pm according to the latest RUC run, though.



This looks very capable:



Shear not exactly perfect for nado generation:

With that big of a "slight" region, I expect we'll see a few radiosondes at 18 Z. (in about 2 hours)

Should be interesting.
Hurricane Forecasters Bring Preparedness Message to Atlantic, Mexico and Caribbean
Public invited to tour Air Force Reserve “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft



NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve will host a series of public events from March 18 to 27 in six coastal communities in Bermuda, Mexico and the Caribbean to urge residents to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season.

Tours of the Air Force Reserve Command’s WC-130J “hurricane hunter” aircraft will be available to residents and have an opportunity to meet U.S. National Hurricane Center director Bill Read; deputy director Ed Rappaport; senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila; Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch meteorologist Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria; and personnel from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the 403rd Wing.


Locations and times for public tours are listed below (all times are local):

•Friday, March 19: Bermuda; 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.

•Monday, March 22: Mazatlan, Mexico; 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.

•Tuesday, March 23: Merida, Mexico; 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.

•Wednesday, March 24: San Salvadore, El Salvadore, 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.

•Friday, March 26: Antigua; 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.

•Saturday, March 27: Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico; 9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

26. JRRP
RUC data further into the run shows a very good hodograph for nadoes in South Central Arkansas. This for 6 pm CST:



Hope awareness and brain cells are in abundance there today.
Good morning all.

Dawn is upon us and it looks like we scored a few more inches of snow overnight, and it is now snowing for the 49th straight hour. The 28 straight hours of blizzard conditions ended late last night as winds have calmed down, but a mesoscale low continues to toy with us this morning, keeping light snow falling. Things should finally wind down today, and snow should cease altogether by this evening.

We are now at approximately 46 inches of new snow and still counting.

IS THERE GOING TO BE BAD WEATHER TODAY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA?
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Dawn is upon us and it looks like we scored a few more inches of snow overnight, and it is now snowing for the 49th straight hour. The 28 straight hours of blizzard conditions ended late last night as winds have calmed down, but a mesoscale low continues to toy with us this morning, keeping light snow falling. Things should finally wind down today, and snow should cease altogether by this evening.

We are now at approximately 46 inches of new snow and still counting.



Too bad you weren't filming a remake of "Ice Station Zebra." What a waste of a good blizzard! :p :D
Quoting sarahjola:
IS THERE GOING TO BE BAD WEATHER TODAY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA?

I am of the opinion that most of the rough stuff will stay to our north...a line from Fort Polk, Alex, Hattiesburg. This is based on the RUC forecasts showing the high CAPE values staying north of that line. We could still get the scattered stong T-storm, but I think they will be few and far between.

BUT, is a possibility (please don't go ignore it because I said the above).
My great-grandfather was a sea captain who sailed from Liverpool to Buenos Aires back in the late 1800s. One of the stops along the way was the port city of Rio Grande, Brazil, just south of where that cyclone is right now. One of the stories handed down in my family was that he always feared the approach to Rio Grande more than any other part of the voyage due to the unpredictable weather there.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Too bad you weren't filming a remake of "Ice Station Zebra." What a waste of a good blizzard! :p :D


Never seen that movie...lol.
NWS NOLA/BR not doing the weekly test today...so don't expect to hear one.

Public Information Statement:

...Weekly NOAA Weather Radio test postponed...

The weekly test has been postponed due to inclement weather expected
today and will be done tomorrow...Thursday March 11th...2010 at 11am
CST.

We apologize for any inconvenience.
Quoting Levi32:


Never seen that movie...lol.


...and don't bother to do so, unless you need to take a nap.
Quoting Levi32:


Never seen that movie...lol.


You did not miss much.
Quoting CycloneOz:


...and don't bother to do so, unless you need to take a nap.
Quoting SQUAWK:


You did not miss much.


Advice duly noted :) I shall steer clear of that film.
I AM HEADED TO SUN TODAY. JUST WANTED TO KNOW WHAT TO BE PREPARED FOR. THANKS!
WHO DAT!!!
Quoting sarahjola:
IS THERE GOING TO BE BAD WEATHER TODAY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA?


Tonight severe wx will move into that region.
Quoting sarahjola:
I AM HEADED TO SUN TODAY. JUST WANTED TO KNOW WHAT TO BE PREPARED FOR. THANKS!
WHO DAT!!!

What's with the CAPS?

I know the causeway had reduced speed limits northbound and convoys southbound earlier - full fog restrictions.
Quoting sarahjola:
I AM HEADED TO SUN TODAY. JUST WANTED TO KNOW WHAT TO BE PREPARED FOR. THANKS!
WHO DAT!!!


Well it's a couple thousand degrees and you might need a fire proof suite, I would also bring some SPF 1000 or higher for the sun burn or scorch.
A bunch of hail reports around Dallas. Almost all about quarter-sized.

Quoting StormChaser81:


Well it's a couple thousand degrees and you might need a fire proof suite, I would also bring some SPF 1000 or higher for the sun burn or scorch.

Hehe. Sun is a town in northern St. Tammany parish. (or is it southern Washington parish?)

Feels like the surface of the sun, usually, for 10 months of the year, though.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Well it's a couple thousand degrees and you might need a fire proof suite, I would also bring some SPF 1000 or higher for the sun burn or scorch.

Haha!
Japanese model agrees pretty well with the Euro, calling for neutral ENSO conditions by April and May, and reaching solid central-neutral by June.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe. Sun is a town in northern St. Tammany parish. (or is it southern Washington parish?)

Feels like the surface of the sun, usually, for 10 months of the year, though.


Never heard of it. Leaned something today.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
This has been a long time comin'
Spruce Creek Fly-In, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
75.9 °F Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 56% Dew Point: 59 °F
Wind: 2.0 mphfrom the ESE
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.96 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 78 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Perfect weather today in ECFL.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe. Sun is a town in northern St. Tammany parish. (or is it southern Washington parish?)

Feels like the surface of the sun, usually, for 10 months of the year, though.


Oh yeah. Sun, it is just north of Bush and just south of Rio.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Oh yeah. Sun, it is just north of Bush and just south of Rio.

lol!!
Quoting atmoaggie:

What's with the CAPS?

I know the causeway had reduced speed limits northbound and convoys southbound earlier - full fog restrictions.

just didn't think to turn caps off. my bad. thanks for the info, and yes sun is in st. tammany it takes about 5 minutes to drive through. if you blink you'll miss it. hahaha
My wife just sent me a message:

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2010/03/10/hurricanes/

It says that US will see more hurricanes in 2010…

Good News for my hurricane hunting husband!!!
Quoting Levi32:
Japanese model agrees pretty well with the Euro, calling for neutral ENSO conditions by April and May, and reaching solid central-neutral by June.




A La Nina is supposed to develop in August
Oh snap....mini-hurricane headed our way. There's no way to tell how heavy the snow within this mesoscale low is. It is showing up on radar so it could be pretty potent. Bracing myself....just 5 more inches and my 60-inch snowstake will disappear for the first time since I've had it.

Afternoon All.

Could get dicey across the FL peninsula Thurs/Fri, for real this time, lol. Temps are finally breaking into the upper 70's and low 80's which, unlike past events, could provide the instability one would expect this time of year. Still a lot of sub surface cooling to overcome though. Cooling that these parts haven't experienced in some time. It's been ruining many a forecast thus far.

Ok, its going past 80 for the first time in a long time.
Quoting Levi32:
Oh snap....mini-hurricane headed our way. There's no way to tell how heavy the snow within this mesoscale low is. It is showing up on radar so it could be pretty potent. Bracing myself....just 5 more inches and my 60-inch snowstake will disappear for the first time since I've had it.



And that's why I don't live in Alaska, lol.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Bastardi forecasts an active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Link

Don't mention the competition.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


And that's why I don't live in Alaska, lol.


Lol I would just love for some of you guys to have been here when this monster hit us on January 31st, 2009:

Howdy folks...had pea to marble sized hail here in Colleyville TX about and hour ago...dry line is supposed to drape across Dallas, leaving us Fort Worth folks with high winds but no rain this afternoon

How's everyone doing today?
Quoting Levi32:
Oh snap....mini-hurricane headed our way. There's no way to tell how heavy the snow within this mesoscale low is. It is showing up on radar so it could be pretty potent. Bracing myself....just 5 more inches and my 60-inch snowstake will disappear for the first time since I've had it.


That is just impressive. I would love to see a visible satellite pic of that mesoscale low.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Bastardi forecasts an active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.


So is everyone else...
Quoting jeffs713:

That is just impressive. I would love to see a visible satellite pic of that mesoscale low.


Sun just now rose here...it will be a while before I can get a high-resolution satellite pass.
Quoting Levi32:
Oh snap....mini-hurricane headed our way. There's no way to tell how heavy the snow within this mesoscale low is. It is showing up on radar so it could be pretty potent. Bracing myself....just 5 more inches and my 60-inch snowstake will disappear for the first time since I've had it.




Wow!

thats crazy!

pictures would we be incredible
Levi, then would this be a "snowicane?"
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy folks...had pea to marble sized hail here in Colleyville TX about and hour ago...dry line is supposed to drape across Dallas, leaving us Fort Worth folks with high winds but no rain this afternoon

How's everyone doing today?
I am well...And you?
Quoting Chicklit:
Levi, then would this be a "snowicane?"


You could call it that. It's a miniature polar low and the precipitation is convective in nature. I can't tell how wound up this mesoscale thing is because the pressure gradient is quite weak now. The cold air has all moved in and the winds are calm. I guess we're about to find out.

I will post visible pics when I get them but as I said the sun is just rising so it will be a while before I get a high-res polar-orbiting satellite pass.

Current Conditions, moderate snow falling:


Current Conditions

Homer, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 30 min 20 sec ago

9 F
Snow Freezing Fog
Windchill: -3 F
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 3 F
Wind: 7 mph from the NNE

Pressure: 29.24 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.2 miles
Elevation: 82 ft
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Mar 10, 11:54 am EST

Overcast

64 °F
(17 °C)
Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: S 10 G 24 MPH
Barometer: 29.67" (1004.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 51 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

wow its almost too warm right now :p

Ok here's what I can do for you guys.

This is a NOAA-19 AVHRR IR pass from 3 hours ago, which shows the mesoscale low near the center of the image, under the latitude line, over Cook Inlet. You can see an eye-like feature right under the latitude line (*grins*)

I'll be sure to pass a lot of CROW to you guys on here that doubted me on this one. I am really good at severe wx forecasting and maybe some of you will listen next time. I've been forecasting this for days and I still think the bigger outbreak may come Friday all the way into parts of the Ohio Valley.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I'll be sure to pass a lot of CROW to you guys on here that doubted me on this one. I am really good at severe wx forecasting and maybe some of you will listen next time. I've been forecasting this for days and I still think the bigger outbreak may come Friday all the way into parts of the Ohio Valley.


Its not that I doubted that there would be an outbreak, read what I said, I doubted the severity of the outbreak
Quoting tornadodude:


You could get some strong storms in your area tonight.
Quoting Jeff9641:


You could get some strong storms in your area tonight.


that would definitely be cool
Quoting Jeff9641:
I'll be sure to pass a lot of CROW to you guys on here that doubted me on this one. I am really good at severe wx forecasting and maybe some of you will listen next time. I've been forecasting this for days and I still think the bigger outbreak may come Friday all the way into parts of the Ohio Valley.


Let's please not talk down on people that disagreed with you, or brag that you were right. That doesn't help you at all. Make the forecast, and people will notice if you made a good one.
Quoting tornadodude:


that would definitely be cool


look at the CU field building in East TX right now on the Visible Sat. Also a nice dryline moving east.
Here is where my house is on the radar image. It remains to be seen if the "eye wall" will move over me.

Quoting Levi32:


Let's not talk down on people that disagreed with you, or brag that you were right. That doesn't help you at all. Make the forecast, and people will notice if you made a good one.


You know your RIGHT I didn't mean it in a mean way and I'm Sorry to all of you if it came out that way.
alrighty then....
From the NWS Anchorage, AK:

... Snowfall totals from the March 9th snowstorm...

A strong winter storm gripped much of the area Monday night and
Tuesday. Snow began to fall in Anchorage early Tuesday afternoon and
picked up in intensity late in the evening. Drifts as high as three
feet were reported in Homer and were noted across the city of
Anchorage as well to varying heights. Many of the observations may
not have been exact... due to the difficulty of measurement from
blowing and drifting snow.

... .Location... . amount obs / date

Girdwood 34.0" M 11:30 am 3/9
N. Wasilla Fishhook 21.5" 4:45 PM 3/9
upper o'malley 18.0" M noon 3/9
upper dearmoun 16.0" 8:15 am 3/9
east Anchorage / hillside 15.0" 8:30 am 3/9
Butte / Maud Rd 12.0" E 1:00 PM 3/9
Glen Alps 14.0" 11:00 am 3/9
upper o'malley and fire station 11.0" 11:00 am 3/9
Seward 8.0" E 10:15 am 3/9
Abbott Road and birch 8.0" 7:30 am 3/9
birch Road and dearmoun 7.0" M 3:25 PM 3/9
Lake Otis and Dowling 6.5" M 9:55 am 3/9
bragaw and Glenn Highway 6.0" 11:00 am 3/9
Kenai 4.0" 9:40 am 3/9
bragaw and Glenn Highway 6.0" 11:00 am 3/9
NWS Sand Lake office 5.4" M 9:00 am 3/10
trunk Rd and Palmer Highway 5.3" 11:00 am 3/9
Chugiak 5.2" M 9:20 am 3/9


M denotes a measured value
E denotes an estimated value
denotes an unspecified measurement value [unknown if measured or
estimated]

Ss/dp Mar 10
Quoting Jeff9641:


look at the CU field building in East TX right now on the Visible Sat. Also a nice dryline moving east.


yeah, and it is almost 70 and sunny here with dewpoints in the mid 50's
Quoting Levi32:


Let's please not talk down on people that disagreed with you, or brag that you were right. That doesn't help you at all. Make the forecast, and people will notice if you made a good one.


its a group effort here
with many inputs
comes a reasonable
forecast
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
913 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS AND A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...QUIET MORNING SO FAR WEATHERWISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND PROBABLY REACHING LOWER
80S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH SHOULD KEEP MIGRATING INTO THE NE STATES
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATL AND
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
AWAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SE GULF AND THE
CARIBBEAN...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...U/L DYNAMICS
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFTING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
a tight little comma swooping south of Dallas..
Quoting Minnemike:
a tight little comma swooping south of Dallas..


Quoting tornadodude:


that would definitely be cool


Step outside, look! Tornado! Run down street...get some footage. Chase over.

Faulty transmission repair: $1,000
Cost of mini-van you cannot afford: $3000
Being able to chase in your own neighborhood: Lucky as all get out!
Quoting Minnemike:
a tight little comma swooping south of Dallas..


I took that loop when I returned from last year's Ida. I remember looking out to my south right there and back to Dallas just north and behind me.

I shook my head...

I wouldn't want to live there.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Step outside, look! Tornado! Run down street...get some footage. Chase over.

Faulty transmission repair: $1,000
Cost of mini-van you cannot afford: $3000
Being able to chase in your own neighborhood: Lucky as all get out!



hahah right on!

will def have to see what happens
Quoting StormChaser81:




That track is going to take it right over Terrel!

SOUND THE HORNS!
Quoting CycloneOz:


That track is going to take it right over Terrel!

SOUND THE HORNS!


They had a severe thunderstorm warning out for that cell but discontinued it a little wile ago, still holding together pretty well. Losing the higher echo tops.
uh oh, here we go

Hello strangers, hunting seasons over so I'll be lurking around again!

I have to agree with the Doc that the severe season has started. This morning about 3:30 I was awakened by some of the loudest thunder I've heard since the end of last summer! We had a storm that came in off the GOM and you knew the lightning was close because you could see the flash and hear the thunder at the same time! I looked around this morning and luckily didn't see any lightning damage in the neighborhood, I thought there might be with the frequency of the cloud to ground lightning in that storm!

It's been a cold winter in the Florida Panhandle this year so I welcome the warmer weather even if that comes with the risk of stronger thunderstorms!
First visible images coming in from GOES-11. You can see the mesoscale low and yes this is going to look impressive on the high-res passes as you can see the eye-feature even on this image:

oh Happy Birthday Press!
Quoting tornadodude:
uh oh, here we go



That's a nice airmass contrast with that front.
comma going poof!
though, the developing line itself seems to be getting clearer. more commas coming...
Quoting Jeff9641:
I'll be sure to pass a lot of CROW to you guys on here that doubted me on this one. I am really good at severe wx forecasting and maybe some of you will listen next time. I've been forecasting this for days and I still think the bigger outbreak may come Friday all the way into parts of the Ohio Valley.


Jeff if the thunderstorm cell we got off the GOM this morning in the Florida Panhandle is any indication I have to agree with you. This system will probably have the biggest outbreak of severe weather we've seen so far this year. I woke up this morning and it was muggy and in the low 60's, this is the first time this year we've seen warm moist air like this! Things are going to rock tonight through tomorrow, you can see the dry line forming as we speak!
alright I'm out, it's way too beautiful out to be inside. 70 and sunny, and time for some good ole Indiana basketball!

take care all
Hey, Viking! How you been?
79 degrees here in St. Petersburg, FL.

Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: S 12 G 20 MPH
Barometer: 29.91" (1012.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C)
Heat Index: 79 °F (26 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
107. xcool
16.7.4
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I am well...And you?


I'm doing...been working on a lot of new things for Haiti
Quoting Floodman:
Hey, Viking! How you been?

Been good, trying to stay warm with this cold winter we've had! I see you been busy with Haiti, good man! I plan to clean up the boat this Saturday and wake it up form it's winter sleep. Looks to be sunny and about 65 Saturday, perfect temp for working on the boat and not sweating up a storm!
110. xcool
Joe Bastardi: More Active 2010 Hurricane Season


call for 15-7-5 .im call for 16-7-4 lol
111. xcool
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released their early hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic Basin for 2010.

The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."

Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land.

In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.
There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:

-The rapidly weakening El Nio

-Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year. (Tropical storms draw energy from warm water.)

-Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa

-Higher humidity levels which provides additional upward motion in the air and fuels tropical storm development

Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm set up including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.

In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeast Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.

In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.

In 1998 Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.

As Bastardi had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with eleven tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six month period.

Link : http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp
113. xcool
There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:

-The rapidly weakening El Niño

-Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year. (Tropical storms draw energy from warm water.)

-Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa

-Higher humidity levels which provides additional upward motion in the air and fuels tropical storm development

Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm set up including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.

In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeast Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.

In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.

In 1998 Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.

As Bastardi had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with eleven tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six month period.
So basically... Joe Bastardi has been reading this blog.
As the spring moves along,I guess we'll start to see some of the old summer crowd making an appearance,this is a good thing.
Especially as the severe weather season cranks up.
SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...WW 20...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY VICINITY WNW/ESE THERMAL BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL AL ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR AS NOTED ON
18Z JAN SOUNDING ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALSO TORNADOS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT FORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2 Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2" Hail
Moderate Moderate


Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

If this is a repost I am sorry



NHC UPDATES TO FORECAST PRODUCTS INCLUDES CHAINGING THE SIZE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND IT MENTIONS THAT THE SAFFIR SIMPSON WIND SCALE WILL BECOME OPERATIONAL THIS YEARLink
Terra MODIS Visible image of Invest 90Q from 16:49 UTC (3 hours ago):

NOAA-17 AVHRR satellite pass from 10:17am AKST (30 minutes ago), showing the mesoscale low west of Homer, which has a classic eye-like feature, common in intense mesoscale convective polar lows that resemble miniature hurricanes here in Cook Inlet.



Latest Radar:

448
WUUS54 KFWD 101943
SVRFWD
TXC139-257-102045-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0030.100310T1943Z-100310T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 143 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF COTTONWOOD TO 4
MILES SOUTH OF ENNIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ALMA BY 150 PM
COTTONWOOD BY 205 PM
KAUFMAN BY 210 PM
TERRELL AND GRAYS PRAIRIE BY 215 PM
KEMP BY 225 PM
Quoting NEwxguy:
As the spring moves along,I guess we'll start to see some of the old summer crowd making an appearance,this is a good thing.
Especially as the severe weather season cranks up.


I agree...it will be good to see some of the summer regulars back here


You saying intense polar lows that resemble hurricane doesnt sound right, your winds are 5mph right now from the east with light snow, nothing intense about that.

When I hear intense and hurricane like I think of strong winds excess of 70 mph and everything that comes along with a hurricane.

Not trying under mind you or anything, I just think some people in here can get the wrong idea about the system your talking about by the use of certain words.

WU Homer
Quoting StormChaser81:


You saying intense polar lows that resemble hurricane doesnt sound right, your winds are 5mph right now from the east with light snow, nothing intense about that.

When I hear intense and hurricane like I think of strong winds excess of 70 mph and everything that comes along with a hurricane.

Not trying under mind you or anything, I just think some people in here can get the wrong idea about the system your talking about by the use of certain words.

WU Homer


This one is not one of the most intense ones, due to the fact that the coldest air has already been over us for 36 hours and the pressure and temperature gradients are gone. You can't see what's going on under the heaviest band. Homer's airport is far to the east of where the band is.

I am not, however, making an invalid comparison in calling them hurricane-like. This one last year in January brought 60mph sustained winds with hurricane-force gusts to us for 12 hours, dumping 30 inches of snow. These systems are wicked, and can get very intense. Obviously some will be weaker than others.

Quoting Levi32:


This one is not one of the most intense ones, due to the fact that the coldest air has already been over us for 36 hours and the pressure and temperature gradients are gone. You can't see what's going on under the heaviest band. Homer's airport is far to the east of where the band is.

I am not, however, making an invalid comparison. This one last year in January brought 60mph sustained winds with hurricane-force gusts to us for 12 hours, dumping 30 inches of snow. These systems are wicked, and can get very intense. Obviously some will be weaker than others.



That one does look rather nasty.
Last visible shot before sunset on Invest 90Q. There is some very nice deep convection partially covering the LLC, the deepest convection we have seen yet with this system. There is also an impressive spiral band in the eastern semicircle. West to northwesterly wind shear is preventing the system from strengthening much, and is responsible for the LLC being partially exposed. However, this is the best and most tropical I have seen this system look so far.

90Q has begun to move eastward over the last 12 hours in response to a deepening trough digging in from the southwest. The system will continue eastward over the south Atlantic and gradually curve poleward towards the southeast over the next couple days. Today is likely the last day before 90Q undergoes extratropical transition.

If you ever lived in Alaska do not tell any of us who has about the storms. I have been in rain storms where the gusts were clocked at over 100 mph with sustained winds of 65mph. I recall a nice day to send the kids out to play was when the rain was not blowing side ways. I have worked a few years sailing the gulf of Alaska in winter and it ain't pretty. A hurricane does not sit there for days and days!

Mike
Quoting cgmaddog:
If you ever lived in Alaska do not tell any of us who has about the storms. I have been in rain storms where the gusts were clocked at over 100 mph with sustained winds of 65mph. I recall a nice day to send the kids out to play was when the rain was not blowing side ways. I have worked a few years sailing the gulf of Alaska in winter and it ain't pretty. A hurricane does not sit there for days and days!

Mike


Lot's of hurricanes and tropical storms through the years have stalled and became stationary and sat on top of a place's for days.



A man and his wife were awakened at 3:00 am by a loud pounding on the door.

The man gets up and goes to the door where a drunken stranger, standing in the pouring rain, is asking for a push.

"Not a chance," says the husband, "it’s 3:00 in the morning!"

He slams the door and returns to bed.

"Who was that?" asked his wife.

"Just some drunk guy asking for a push," he answers.

"Did you help him?" she asks..

"No, I did not, it’s 3:00 in the morning and it is pouring rain out there!"

"Well, you have a short memory," says his wife.
"Can't you remember about three months ago when we broke down and those two guys helped us?

I think you should help him, and you should be ashamed of yourself!"

The man does as he is told, gets dressed, and goes out into the pounding rain.

He calls out into the dark, "Hello, are you still there?"

"Yes," comes back the answer.

"Do you still need a push?" calls out the husband.

"Yes, please!" comes the reply from the dark.
"Where are you?" asks the husband.

"Over here on the swing," replied the drunk.
Rotating supercells near Texarkana. Tornadoes are imminent in NE TX and SE Oklahoma. Get ready and head for shelter in the path of these storms.
CORRUPTION AT UN CLIMATE PANEL


Link
Quoting Jeff9641:
Rotating supercells near Texarkana. Tornadoes are imminent in NE TX and SE Oklahoma. Get ready and head for shelter in the path of these storms.

Correction NE TX and SW Arkansas. Nice rotation a tornado maybe forming right now. If you live in Texarkana head for shelter as the storm is approaching.
Quoting cgmaddog:
If you ever lived in Alaska do not tell any of us who has about the storms. I have been in rain storms where the gusts were clocked at over 100 mph with sustained winds of 65mph. I recall a nice day to send the kids out to play was when the rain was not blowing side ways. I have worked a few years sailing the gulf of Alaska in winter and it ain't pretty. A hurricane does not sit there for days and days!

Mike


Actually, there have been quite a few hurricanes that have sat on top of places for a few days.
The tornado outbreak is now beginning and looks like it is going to be a long evening as numerous tornadoes may touch down between now and midnight.
Does anybody have radio velocity images for that area because radar presentation looks fantastic?
I'm doing some research to write an article about the Super Outbreak of 1974...

WOW...

168 storms... 320 dead... $3.5 billion in damage...
Wow, out of nowhere, someone begs to be ignored...don't worry little fella, I took care of it for you!
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southern Bowie County in northeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Simms... New Boston...
northwestern Cass County in northeast Texas...
Morris County in northeast Texas...

* until 315 PM CST

* at 231 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail. This
storm was located 7 miles northwest of Daingerfield... or 10 miles
northeast of Pittsburg... and moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Rocky
Branch... Omaha... Naples... US 259 and I 30 intersection... Maud...
Redwater and Hooks...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly cloud
to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter...
preferably inside a strong building but away from windows.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Does anybody have radio velocity images for that area because radar presentation looks fantastic?






Quoting TampaTom:
I'm doing some research to write an article about the Super Outbreak of 1974...

WOW...

168 storms... 320 dead... $3.5 billion in damage...


I remember that one...it was a bad year in general, '74
Storm H1 on Shreveport radar south of I-30 near Naples, Texas is exhibiting some rotation. Radar estimates hail over 2 inches in diameter with this storm.

Quoting Levi32:








Thanks Buddy! It looks as if the storm has lost some of it's rotation.
SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
847 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 10). THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 45W EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO BRASIL ALONG 20S 50W. THIS FEATURE IS DECOUPLING
FROM A WARM CORE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...WITH
CLOSED CIRCULATION ESTIMATED NEAR 29.6S 48.2W. ALTHOUGH A
TIGHT/COMPACT STORM...IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL. FARTHER NORTH...A NARROW RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL WHILE STRUNG ALONG CLOSED HIGHS AT 07S 65W
AND 19S 35W. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN PERU...ACROSS AMAZONAS/PARA IN WESTERN
BRASIL TO BAHIA/ESPIRITO SANTO IN EASTERN BRASIL.

Baltimore is expecting 5" of rain the next few days. WOW!!!! That is not what they need right now. Florida we can handle 4 to 6" right now but not Baltimore.
Quoting TampaTom:
I'm doing some research to write an article about the Super Outbreak of 1974...

WOW...

168 storms... 320 dead... $3.5 billion in damage...

Wrote a report on that one in college, myself. What a severe WX event that was...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
847 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 10). THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 45W EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO BRASIL ALONG 20S 50W. THIS FEATURE IS DECOUPLING
FROM A WARM CORE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...WITH
CLOSED CIRCULATION ESTIMATED NEAR 29.6S 48.2W. ALTHOUGH A
TIGHT/COMPACT STORM...IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL.
FARTHER NORTH...A NARROW RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL WHILE STRUNG ALONG CLOSED HIGHS AT 07S 65W
AND 19S 35W. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN PERU...ACROSS AMAZONAS/PARA IN WESTERN
BRASIL TO BAHIA/ESPIRITO SANTO IN EASTERN BRASIL.



WOOT!! It did it! The convection became deep enough to warm the entire core, and the storm is now in the same class of tropical cyclones as Vince of 2005, becoming tropical in the face of sub-26C SSTs and troughing aloft.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Thanks Buddy! It looks as if the storm has lost some of it's rotation.


NO === IT HASN'T


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FOREMAN...ASHDOWN...
Quoting Levi32:


WOOT!! It did it! The convection became deep enough to warm the entire core, and the storm is now in the same class of tropical storms as Vince, becoming tropical in the face of sub-26C SSTs and troughing aloft.


Umm, wow.
Quoting Floodman:
Wow, out of nowhere, someone begs to be ignored...don't worry little fella, I took care of it for you!


HeHe
746
WFUS54 KSHV 102104
TORSHV
ARC081-TXC037-102145-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0015.100310T2104Z-100310T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FOREMAN...ASHDOWN...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 301 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND...OR NEAR NEW BOSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ALLEENE...OGDEN AND WILTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
In commenting late about Alaska storms, the Anchorage airport shutdown about 6 yrs ago in the winter due to some strong winds from the north. Winds on the "hillside" above Anchorage were clocked in excess of 90 mph. Funny thing is, it wasn't the winds that shut the airport down, it was the flying debris becoming a hazard.

For anyone that has had the priviledge to fly into that airport with the interesting winds generated off the Turnagain and Knik Arms. I have had way to many white knuckled landings in my time there.

By the way.....

Some bloggers this year, including myself, are using kewl HTML code to make warnings stand out, since internet browser code development has been getting pretty creative over the last few years. If you are using Internet Explorer, it may not be pretty at times as IE has major problems displaying webpages with these kinds of codes, so sometimes an entire comment may get affected when we only coded one word. If that happens to you we are sorry, but other browsers like Firefox and Chrome do not have that problem.
Quoting Floodman:


I remember that one...it was a bad year in general, '74
Hurricanes Carmen and Fifi did terrible damage in central America that year. Many deaths.... Howdy Floodman , hope you are well.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Umm, wow.


Yeah! Here's the short synopsis I wrote on the last page before CyberTeddy posted that notification. I was hoping the convection would be deep enough and it is :)

Last visible shot before sunset on Invest 90Q. There is some very nice deep convection partially covering the LLC, the deepest convection we have seen yet with this system. There is also an impressive spiral band in the eastern semicircle. West to northwesterly wind shear is preventing the system from strengthening much, and is responsible for the LLC being partially exposed. However, this is the best and most tropical I have seen this system look so far.

90Q has begun to move eastward over the last 12 hours in response to a deepening trough digging in from the southwest. The system will continue eastward over the south Atlantic and gradually curve poleward towards the southeast over the next couple days. Today is likely the last day before 90Q undergoes extratropical transition.
Hows everything going Levi?

We went from Winter to Summer in about 1 day down here.
Quoting Skepticall:
Hows everything going Levi?

We went from Winter to Summer in about 1 day down here.


And we went from spring to winter for the entire past week! We are now at 48 new inches of snow since the weekend, and our town is stuck. The storm is finally ending this afternoon but it's going to be quite a project digging out of here.


97P looking good
WOW read this for Orlando!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 PM EST WED MAR 10 2010


...WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURS-FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND HELP KEEP
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MINS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INDICATED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS N/C SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURS...PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MESSY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING DISTURBANCES ALOFT. SHORTWAVE/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL
INCREASE U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO YIELD A HIGH COVERAGE OF POPS. HIGH
TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD UPPER 70S/NR 80 INLAND WILL AID INSTABILITY
AND MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS WITH VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE NORTH.

THU NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED LOW AS A +180KT H25 ZONAL JET OVER NRN
MEX/SRN TX PUSHES ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A MID
LVL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LIFT INTO THE NW CARIB.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROF WILL GENERATE A STRONG SW
FLOW ACROSS THE GOMEX THAT WILL PULL HIGH PWAT AIR ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM HAS ALREADY CUTOFF FROM THE PRIMARY
STEERING FLOW OVER THE CONUS. TYPICALLY...CUTOFF SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW MOVING AND IT APPEARS THIS ONE WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT. WITH LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW AND A WEAK BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A PERSISTENT
SWRLY FLOW THAT WILL TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE GOMEX AND PULL
IT ACRS FL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALL INDICATE AN
EXTENDED RAIN EVENT FOR CENTRAL FL WITH HIGH QPF VALUES THRU 12Z SAT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE H25 JET PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ITS HARD
TO ARGUE WITH THE OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY WITH AN AIRMASS SATURATED FROM
SFC TO CIG. HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST AREAS IN THE CWA WILL SEE A
MINIMUM 2" OF RAIN WITH 4-6" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SVR WX POTENTIAL
WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AOA 350 OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...AND AS HIGH AS 550 OVER THE ORLANDO METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK
FRI. DEEP/THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TOTAL CAPE POTENTIAL AND
SHOULD PREVENT LARGE OUTBREAK OF SVR WX. NEVERTHELESS...THE HIGH
LVLS OF ATMOSPHERIC TORQUE CANNOT BE IGNORED.

Quoting Levi32:


And we went from spring to winter for the entire past week! We are now at 48 new inches of snow since the weekend, and our town is stuck. The storm is finally ending this afternoon but it's going to be quite a project digging out of here.


Wow thats insane. Wish I could see that much snow I've never really been on that much snow. When we were up in Alaska I could see it but never went to it. Down in Houston we don't get much snow so I'm hoping to see that much sometime. Although we do get a lot lightning which you haven't seen.
Quoting StormW:


And the Indian Dipole


Well the models don't seem to think the IOD will be too significant this year. By the looks of the model it may be trending slightly positive over the course of the summer, but the entire Indian Ocean is just flat warmer than normal right now.



We look to be torqued and ready come Friday in Orlando. Dewpoints are forecasted to get around 70 here.
Quoting Skepticall:


Wow thats insane. Wish I could see that much snow I've never really been on that much snow. When we were up in Alaska I could see it but never went to it. Down in Houston we don't get much snow so I'm hoping to see that much sometime. Although we do get a lot lightning which you haven't seen.


Indeed, there are a lot of things you guys get that I have never seen lol. All we have up here is snow...that's it...nothing else exciting exists here.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number SEVEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE HUBERT (13-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion March 10 2010
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Hubert (987 hPa) located at 21.1S 48.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
35 NM from the center extending up to 45 NM in the southern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center extending up to 45 NM in southwest and north and 55 NM in the southeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 21.4S 47.4E - (Depression sur terre)
24 HRS: 21.5S 46.0E - (Depression sur terre)

Additional Information
=======================
Hubert has rapidly intensified as it approaches Malagasy eastern coast. System is located at less than 30 kms of Mananjary City. Latest visible image show an improving curved band pattern with convection wrapping more than 10 around low level circulation center. 1608z SSMIS imagery shows an eye feature on 91 ghz channel with improving organization compared to previous microwave imagery from AQUA and TRMM.

On this basis, FT is upgraded to T4.0 for this advisory (Dvorak constraint at +0.5 in 6 hours or FT broken due to rapid intensification for a small system).

MSLP remains adjusted higher than normal to take into account the high environmental pressure (set at 1013 hPa). Landfall is expected within the next hours near Mananjary as system is currently slowly moving towards the west southwest. After landfall rapid dissipation is forecast over the high terrains of Malagasy.
Numerous storms around Texarkana are now showing rotation. There are very high CAPE values in this area too. A tornado will form there at anytime.
Quoting Levi32:
By the way.....

Some bloggers this year, including myself, are using kewl HTML code to make warnings stand out, since internet browser code development has been getting pretty creative over the last few years. If you are using Internet Explorer, it may not be pretty at times as IE has major problems displaying webpages with these kinds of codes, so sometimes an entire comment may get affected when we only coded one word. If that happens to you we are sorry, but other browsers like Firefox and Chrome do not have that problem.

1. As long as the colors and flashing are limited to only a couple of actually important lines, I have no problem with it. If it is used for the silly during times of severe or tropical weather, I'll be reporting/ignoring it.
2. People still use Inept Explorer, the only browser that doesn't automatically resize large images to avoid the s t r e t c h e d blog? Glutton for punishment?
Tornado Watch
Statement as of 3:25 PM CST on March 10, 2010


The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

a large part of Arkansas

Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM CST.

Tornadoes... hail to 3 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 75 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 55 statute
miles east and west of a line from 25 miles southwest of El
Dorado Arkansas to 20 miles north of Flippin Arkansas. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (wous64 kwns wou2).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 20... ww 21...

Discussion... severe thunderstorms expected to rapidly develop across
wrn AR in response to approach of a very strong upper system and
increasing instability. Shear profiles support supercells including
possible tornados and large hail. Storms will move rapidly newd
across the watch thru the evening.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
450. Mean storm motion vector 24035.


Quoting atmoaggie:

1. As long as the colors and flashing are limited to only a couple of actually important lines, I have no problem with it. If it is used for the silly during times of severe or tropical weather, I'll be reporting/ignoring it.
2. People still use Inept Explorer, the only browser that doesn't automatically resize large images to avoid the s t r e t c h e d blog? Glutton for punishment?


Hey ATMO do you have those CAPE values?


Tropical Depression near Vanuatu and American Samoa
Quoting atmoaggie:

1. As long as the colors and flashing are limited to only a couple of actually important lines, I have no problem with it. If it is used for the silly during times of severe or tropical weather, I'll be reporting/ignoring it.
2. People still use Inept Explorer, the only browser that doesn't automatically resize large images to avoid the s t r e t c h e d blog? Glutton for punishment?


Yeah people using IE don't know what they are missing.

I know effects can be quite annoying and I'm using mine wisely. "Tornado Warning" were the only two words I made blink in red in the warning message. I think that's more than appropriate, and hopefully nobody goes farther than that or it would get annoying instead of helping direct people's eyes to important information.
We hit 83 today at my work north of Orlando today. First time since 1/25/2010.
New MetEd/COMET tropical module

The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of "Chapter 11, Observation, Analysis, and Prediction of Tropical Weather", of the online textbook, "Introduction to Tropical Meteorology". This textbook is being developed over time and its chapters are being published incrementally. This is the fifth chapter in the book to be published. It includes a focus section on the Australian-Indonesian Monsoon contributed by Dr. Mick Pope of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Other special features are interviews with tropical cyclone forecasters from the U.S. National Hurricane Center and Tropical Cyclone Centre Météo-France/La Réunion. Please follow this link to open the textbook: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/tropical/textbook/index.htm. The chapter covers methods of tropical weather observation, analysis, and prediction. Learners will become familiar with:

- The challenges of tropical weather analysis and forecasting
- Advantages and weaknesses of various types of tropical weather observations and sources of observation error
- Tropical weather analysis using tools such as streamline/isotachs and velocity potential to analyze station data and satellite products such as IR anomalies, cloud drift winds, total precipitable water, and more
- Mesoscale analysis and nowcasting using high-resolution satellite images and radar imagery
- Marine analysis tools and marine forecast products commonly used in the tropics
- Numerical weather prediction in the tropics including advantages, weaknesses, and data assimilation techniques, and forecast verification methods.
- Applications of dynamical, statistical models, statistical-dynamical models
- Ensemble prediction systems, some applications in tropical weather, interpretation and verification of ensemble products
- Tropical cyclone prediction including the advantages and weakness of model guidance
- Different types of monsoon regimes and weather systems common to each intraseasonal period
- Seasonal and intraseasonal rainfall variability over Australia and Indonesia including the impact of prevailing winds and topography on the evolution of convection.

The chapter uses a variety of strategies, from graphics and animations, to critical thought questions and interactions, review questions, and a quiz. Each section has links to additional sites and resources that augment the material presented in the chapter. The material has been reviewed for scientific accuracy and academic level appropriateness by scientists and a professor with expertise in tropical meteorology and diverse regional perspectives. This chapter includes graphics and a companion print version in PDF format. The intended audience for the online tropical meteorology textbook comprises undergraduate and early graduate meteorology students, current operational or prospective tropical forecasters, and students interested in tropical meteorology.

atmo: Registration required if you haven't already...is free.
Quoting Jeff9641:
The tornado outbreak is now beginning and looks like it is going to be a long evening as numerous tornadoes may touch down between now and midnight.


I have a feeling strong storms are going to fire all night long ahead of this front and won't quit at midnight. Strong storms rolled thru my area at 3:30 this morning from the warm air out ahead of this front so I have no doubt it's going to be another long night as the front gets closer. My 2 year old loves thunder and lightning, he thinks it's just another cool fireworks show so he should enjoy tonight!
NINO-West (the region in the west Pacific just east of the Philippines and north of New Guinea) is forecast to trend warmer than normal as we head into hurricane season. This would be consistent with a dying El Nino and the beginnings of a La Nina in the east-central Pacific.

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah people using IE don't know what they are missing.

I know effects can be quite annoying and I'm using mine wisely. "Tornado Warning" were the only two words I made blink in red in the warning message. I think that's more than appropriate, and hopefully nobody goes farther than that or it would get annoying instead of helping direct people's eyes to important information.

You've done fine with it, but I can envision it being overused and/or for the wrong things. Then WU would kill it during the post submit.
Quoting atmoaggie:

You've done fine with it, but I can envision it being overused and/or for the wrong things. Then WU would kill it during the post submit.


Fortunately only a few of us even know how to do it. WU doesn't process html code normally when entered in blog entries or comments so there is a special way people have to discover to do it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Back in a few.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey ATMO do you have those CAPE values?

RUC nowcast analysis for 20 Z (2pm CST):



For 4 pm CST (about now):



For 6 pm CST:



(and I am still figuring on SE LA on having none of the severe variety, which looks to be so, thus far)
Tropical storm with 40 knots in Costa gaúcha The world map of tropical cyclones disclosed in real-time by NASA, the u.s. Space Agency, showed two tropical storms in the southern hemisphere, Hubert in Madagascar in the Indian Ocean, and the nameless cyclone in the Atlantic coast of Rio Grande do Sul.



The symbol that you on the map and accompanies the title of this analysis is used in the identification of tropical storms, but with the reverse movement to hemispheres of cyclones. When a hurricane, the icon is the same, but with the Fund completed. The tropical storm that is on the coast gaúcha follows your offset to the East, away from the continent, but gained strength in the last 12 hours.

The wind maximum continuous its Center passed to 40 knots, only 25 us unless necessary for the characterization of a hurricane, and it would be only the second documented throughout the history of the South Atlantic, which signals the as is extraordinary and rare this weather system, despite it not having passed very in continental area. The indicative that he will have some dificuldaded on achieving the rank of hurricane on the high seas, which could discard, but it is vital to stress, that we have never been so close to register a new Catherine and the luck, if you believe it weighed. Best track data of LARGEST/TPC/NOAA indicate that the maximum that the system has reached so far in Dvorak scale was 2.5, i.e. below 4.0 compatible with a hurricane.

The impressive, and I would say so sad, is that there are even climatologists-none here in southern Brazil-making where one tropical storm in Brazil. Were the same phenomenon this now in the North Atlantic and he would get the first name of the list is designed for 2010 that would be Alex. Perhaps nobody has attempted to detail, but our cyclone is the first tropical cyclone and the first tropical storm of the year in the Atlantic Ocean, something exceptionally rare, since virtually every year the first Atlantic tropical cyclone in the northern hemisphere. A tropical storm is taken so seriously in the United States State authorities often suggest evacuation of coastal areas when approximating a system of this kind, as shows Fox News story below 4 September 2008, when the tropical storm Hanna of South Carolina.
Quoting Jeff9641:
We look to be torqued and ready come Friday in Orlando. Dewpoints are forecasted to get around 70 here.


Looks like we'll be getting it late tonight and tomorrow here in the Panhandle ahead of you, should be fun!
Quoting 69Viking:


I have a feeling strong storms are going to fire all night long ahead of this front and won't quit at midnight. Strong storms rolled thru my area at 3:30 this morning from the warm air out ahead of this front so I have no doubt it's going to be another long night as the front gets closer. My 2 year old loves thunder and lightning, he thinks it's just another cool fireworks show so he should enjoy tonight!


Storms will explode in your area later tonight as the upper energy swings in.
It isn't that hard, Levi.
The subsurface in the Eastcentral Pacific is still very warm.Is this the last straw of El Nino?

img
Tornado on the ground and another one about to touchdown in Texarkana. This on in Texarkana could be a monster.
Quoting atmoaggie:

1. As long as the colors and flashing are limited to only a couple of actually important lines, I have no problem with it. If it is used for the silly during times of severe or tropical weather, I'll be reporting/ignoring it.
2. People still use Inept Explorer, the only browser that doesn't automatically resize large images to avoid the s t r e t c h e d blog? Glutton for punishment?

My company is locked onto IE6 since we have web-based programs that supposedly won't work on a newer version, and we are absolutely banned from installing a browser that works better.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
352 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLADEGA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST
Tornado touchdown in Ashton, Arkansas.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Tornado touchdown in Ashton, Arkansas.


Where are you getting this info???
Quoting SQUAWK:


Where are you getting this info???


From the warning reports. I'll post in a few. Tornado outbreak is underway.
The update before this one below they mentioned a tornado did touchdown.

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Hempstead County in southwest Arkansas...
southeastern Howard County in southwest Arkansas...
this includes the cities of... Nashville... Mineral Springs...
east central Little River County in southwest Arkansas...
southeastern Sevier County in southwest Arkansas...

* until 430 PM CST

* at 343 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles west of
Saratoga... or 7 miles northeast of Ashdown... moving northeast at 45
mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Tollette and Corinth...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Warning means that strong rotation has been detected in the
storm. A tornado may already be on the ground... or is expected to
develop shortly. If you are in the path of this dangerous storm...
move indoors and to the lowest level of the building. Stay away from
windows. If driving... do not seek shelter under a Highway overpass

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 2 E REDWATER 33.36N 94.22W
03/10/2010 E1.75 INCH BOWIE TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLBALL SIZED HAIL JUST EAST OF REDWATER

A very large Tornado maybe on the ground 15 miles NE of AShton, Ark. Serious rotation with this storm take cover if you are in the path.

062

NWUS22 KWNS 102206

STAHRY



SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST WED MAR 10 2010 THRU 16CST WED MAR 10 2010



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....





NONE REPORTED







.......LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS.............LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS......



1 A125 GRAHAM TX (36 NW MWL) 10/0820

IN GRAHAM...LOTS OF PEAS...SOME MARBLES...FEW FWD/LSR 3310 9860

HALF DOLLAR

7 A150 IRVING TX (3 WSW DAL) 10/1023

WALNUT HILL AND PLEASANT RUN FWD/LSR 3282 9692

6 A175 BEDFORD TX (13 E FTW) 10/1023

HWY 121 AND 183 CROSSOVER...WALNUT TO GOLF FWD/LSR 3285 9713

BALLS

16 A175 2 NE LIBERAL MO (28 N JLN) 10/1517

SGF/LSR 3758 9449

18 A175 2 E REDWATER TX (13 WSW TXK) 10/1535

PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLBALL SIZED HAIL JUST EAST SHV/LSR 3336 9422

OF REDWATER





.........OTHER SEVERE REPORTS..................OTHER SEVERE REPORTS.........



2 A100 3 N BOWIE TX (44 SE SPS) 10/0918

QUARTER-SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTH OF FWD/LSR 3361 9785

BOWIE.

3 A100 FORT WORTH TX (4 SSE FTW) 10/0950

REPORTED IN WEST FORT WORTH. FWD/LSR 3275 9734

4 A100 4 NW KELLER TX (10 NNE FTW) 10/0955

REPORTED 4 NW KELLER. FWD/LSR 3297 9730

5 A100 DENTON TX (29 NNE FTW) 10/1016

HWY 380 AND I 35 FWD/LSR 3322 9715

8 A100 CAMPBELL TX (43 SW PRX) 10/1227

E50 MPH WINDS ALSO FWD/LSR 3315 9595

9 A100 TALCO TX (26 SE PRX) 10/1345

LOCAL FIRE DEPT REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL SHV/LSR 3336 9510

FALLING IN TALCO.

10 A100 SCURRY TX (33 N CRS) 10/1405

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. FWD/LSR 3252 9638

11 A100 3 NW WYLDWOOD TX (14 SE AUS) 10/1412

RELAYED REPORT OF PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT EWX/LSR 3016 9750

OLD HWY 71 AND HWY 71

12 A100 1 E DE KALB TX (34 W TXK) 10/1449

SHV/LSR 3351 9460

13 A100 1 E WILLS POINT TX (41 NW TYR) 10/1451

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. FWD/LSR 3270 9598

14 A100 NAPLES TX (42 WSW TXK) 10/1503

ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED IN NAPLES ALONG HWY 67. SHV/LSR 3320 9468

15 A100 EMORY TX (40 NNW TYR) 10/1506

FWD/LSR 3287 9575

17 A100 4 SE FOREMAN AR (25 NW TXK) 10/1518

LITTLE RIVER DISPATCH REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED SHV/LSR 3368 9435

HAIL A FEW MILES EAST

19 A100 8 WSW ATHENS TX (25 ENE CRS) 10/1536

FWD/LSR 3216 9598
Quoting atmoaggie:
It isn't that hard, Levi.


No it's not, but few people make the effort to figure it out. If the code behaved properly, everyone would be using it, but they don't, because unless you're told how, you have to play around for a while to figure it out, and not many people are willing to do that for the sake of a few colored words. That is fortunate, or as you said, things would get crazy.
467
WWUS54 KSHV 102207
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
407 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ARC081-133-102217-
/O.CAN.KSHV.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100310T2230Z/
LITTLE RIVER AR-SEVIER AR-
407 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SEVIER AND LITTLE RIVER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3379 9383 3392 9401 3409 9386 3405 9381
3401 9381 3401 9376 3390 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 229DEG 37KT 3390 9380

$$

ARC057-061-102230-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100310T2230Z/
HEMPSTEAD AR-HOWARD AR-
407 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR HOWARD
AND HEMPSTEAD COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OZAN...
CORINTH AND MCCASKILL
Quoting Jeff9641:
The update before this one below they mentioned a tornado did touchdown.


I gotta tell ya, I am looking at everything Shreveport has put out this afternoon and nothing says anything about a tornado being on the ground or a confirmed sighting. Where exactly are you getting this?
Quoting jeffs713:

My company is locked onto IE6 since we have web-based programs that supposedly won't work on a newer version, and we are absolutely banned from installing a browser that works better.

That sux. We refuse to do anything that is dependent on Microsoft's code. Period.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

062

NWUS22 KWNS 102206

STAHRY



SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST WED MAR 10 2010 THRU 16CST WED MAR 10 2010



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....





NONE REPORTED







.......LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS.............LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS......



1 A125 GRAHAM TX (36 NW MWL) 10/0820

IN GRAHAM...LOTS OF PEAS...SOME MARBLES...FEW FWD/LSR 3310 9860

HALF DOLLAR

7 A150 IRVING TX (3 WSW DAL) 10/1023

WALNUT HILL AND PLEASANT RUN FWD/LSR 3282 9692

6 A175 BEDFORD TX (13 E FTW) 10/1023

HWY 121 AND 183 CROSSOVER...WALNUT TO GOLF FWD/LSR 3285 9713

BALLS

16 A175 2 NE LIBERAL MO (28 N JLN) 10/1517

SGF/LSR 3758 9449

18 A175 2 E REDWATER TX (13 WSW TXK) 10/1535

PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLBALL SIZED HAIL JUST EAST SHV/LSR 3336 9422

OF REDWATER





.........OTHER SEVERE REPORTS..................OTHER SEVERE REPORTS.........



2 A100 3 N BOWIE TX (44 SE SPS) 10/0918

QUARTER-SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTH OF FWD/LSR 3361 9785

BOWIE.

3 A100 FORT WORTH TX (4 SSE FTW) 10/0950

REPORTED IN WEST FORT WORTH. FWD/LSR 3275 9734

4 A100 4 NW KELLER TX (10 NNE FTW) 10/0955

REPORTED 4 NW KELLER. FWD/LSR 3297 9730

5 A100 DENTON TX (29 NNE FTW) 10/1016

HWY 380 AND I 35 FWD/LSR 3322 9715

8 A100 CAMPBELL TX (43 SW PRX) 10/1227

E50 MPH WINDS ALSO FWD/LSR 3315 9595

9 A100 TALCO TX (26 SE PRX) 10/1345

LOCAL FIRE DEPT REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL SHV/LSR 3336 9510

FALLING IN TALCO.

10 A100 SCURRY TX (33 N CRS) 10/1405

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. FWD/LSR 3252 9638

11 A100 3 NW WYLDWOOD TX (14 SE AUS) 10/1412

RELAYED REPORT OF PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT EWX/LSR 3016 9750

OLD HWY 71 AND HWY 71

12 A100 1 E DE KALB TX (34 W TXK) 10/1449

SHV/LSR 3351 9460

13 A100 1 E WILLS POINT TX (41 NW TYR) 10/1451

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. FWD/LSR 3270 9598

14 A100 NAPLES TX (42 WSW TXK) 10/1503

ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED IN NAPLES ALONG HWY 67. SHV/LSR 3320 9468

15 A100 EMORY TX (40 NNW TYR) 10/1506

FWD/LSR 3287 9575

17 A100 4 SE FOREMAN AR (25 NW TXK) 10/1518

LITTLE RIVER DISPATCH REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED SHV/LSR 3368 9435

HAIL A FEW MILES EAST

19 A100 8 WSW ATHENS TX (25 ENE CRS) 10/1536

FWD/LSR 3216 9598


Local Storm Report


03/10/2010 0342 PM

Ashdown, Little River County.

Funnel cloud, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Emergency manager and storm spotter reporting rotation
directly over Ashdown.





03/10/2010 0318 PM

4 miles se of Foreman, Little River County.

Hail m1.00 inch, reported by law enforcement.


Little River dispatch reported quarter-sized hail a few
miles east of the city of Wallace.

Quoting Jeff9641:


From the warning reports. I'll post in a few. Tornado outbreak is underway.

I haven't seen a nado warning that goes beyond the usual doppler radar indicated with a "could be".

Show us, please?
Serious rotation near Nashville, AR.

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND NORTHERN CLAY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CST...

THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah people using IE don't know what they are missing.

I know effects can be quite annoying and I'm using mine wisely. "Tornado Warning" were the only two words I made blink in red in the warning message. I think that's more than appropriate, and hopefully nobody goes farther than that or it would get annoying instead of helping direct people's eyes to important information.


I don't want to be difficult, but people with seizure disorders can have an episode if they watch a blinking light too long. They try to avoid them if possible.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I haven't seen a nado warning that goes beyond the usual doppler radar indicated with a "could be".

Show us, please?


No OFFICIAL touchdown yet but that is not to say that one hasn't or is on the ground NOW. Very serious rotation with this storm. Funnel clouds so far from the reports.
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want to be difficult, but people with seizure disorders can have an episode if they watch a blinking light too long. They try to avoid them if possible.

I don't believe that for a second. As credible as a triple-digit dewpoint from a broken PWS in the summer...
(j/k, Gro)
791
NWUS54 KBMX 102207
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 SW TALLADEGA 33.41N 86.12W
03/10/2010 TALLADEGA AL TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED ALONG HWY 275 AND RENFROE ROAD


Nice little image of the feature off Brazil.
Wow so they named that system in the South Atlantic after all

very interesting

are the parallels to 2004 anymore abvious?
Well, there you go...in Bama, anyway.
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want to be difficult, but people with seizure disorders can have an episode if they watch a blinking light too long. They try to avoid them if possible.


That strikes me as pretty weird...but whatever. Why would they even risk surfing the internet then if anything that flashes (and there are a lot of things on the internet that do) could give them a seizure?

I don't think it's that big of a deal. I'm not going to abuse that capability. Nothing's going to blink unless it's really urgent.
The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Clark County in southwest Arkansas
west central Hot Spring County in southwest Arkansas
eastern Pike County in southwest Arkansas

* until 500 PM CST

* at 417 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 11 miles
southwest of Murfreesboro... moving northeast at 40 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro...
Pike City...
Amity...


Report severe weather to the nearest law enforcement agency. They
will relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast
office in Little Rock.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Wow so they named that system in the South Atlantic after all

very interesting

are the parallels to 2004 anymore abvious?


As far as I can tell there are no significant correlations between south and north Atlantic hurricane activity.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't believe that for a second. As credible as a triple-digit dewpoint from a broken PWS in the summer...
(j/k, Gro)


YO! Have you ever known me to be difficult?? LOL

SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST WED MAR 10 2010 THRU 16CST WED MAR 10 2010



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....





NONE REPORTED


Quoting Levi32:


As far as I can tell there are no significant correlations between south and north Atlantic hurricane activity.


I kinda figure there wasn't, I was referring to the parallels between 2004 and 2010 so far

hurricane list, south atlantic storm, etc
Statement as of 4:03 PM CST on March 10, 2010


Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 remains in effect until 1000 PM CST

MO
. Missouri counties included are

Barry Barton Benton
Camden Cedar Christian
Dade Dallas Dent
Douglas Greene Hickory
Howell Jasper Laclede
Lawrence McDonald Maries
Miller Morgan Newton
Oregon Ozark Phelps
Polk Pulaski St. Clair
Shannon stone Taney
Texas Vernon Webster
Wright
221. xcool
. StormW ;) hi
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I kinda figure there wasn't, I was referring to the parallels between 2004 and 2010 so far

hurricane list, south atlantic storm, etc


Ah just coincidence lol.
Interesting article on blinking lights

Link
155
NWUS54 KBMX 102223
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0356 PM FLOOD LOCUST FORK 33.91N 86.62W
03/10/2010 BLOUNT AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER DEAVER WALKER RD

So far, no severe winds reported at SPC (will change soon) and not bad winds showing on the surface obs. Also see that the dewpoints are not all that high...not as much as I expected, anyway, with Td still in the 50s for NE TX, N La, Arkansas, MS north of Jackson. (Dewpoints in blue, bottom-left of station circle)


(click for full size)
226. xcool
lasttime 16-7-4 .verified .
978
NWUS54 KSHV 102228
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
428 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM FUNNEL CLOUD TEXARKANA 33.44N 94.07W
03/10/2010 BOWIE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF TEXARKANA.



&&
Local Storm Report


03/10/2010 0313 PM

7 miles E of Foreman, Little River County.

Hail m1.25 inch, reported by storm chaser.


Hail was reported east of Foreman on Hwy 32.





03/10/2010 0342 PM

Ashdown, Little River County.

Funnel cloud, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Emergency manager and storm spotter reporting rotation
directly over Ashdown
Quoting Levi32:


That strikes me as pretty weird...but whatever. Why would they even risk surfing the internet then if anything that flashes (and there are a lot of things on the internet that do) could give them a seizure?

I don't think it's that big of a deal. I'm not going to abuse that capability. Nothing's going to blink unless it's really urgent.
I think it is good when the warning is flashing. I might overlook it otherwise. If the whole monitor is flashing, we will get Levi. jk
230. P451
We do have quite a setup unfolding here. Water Vapor imagery:

Quoting P451:
We do have quite a setup unfolding here. Water Vapor imagery:



Look who's back! Hey P451. The action starts and your back.
Quoting P451:
We do have quite a setup unfolding here. Water Vapor imagery:



Boy it looks like flooding rain is heading your way Saturday in the Mid Atlantic. NOAA is 5.2" in southern New Jersey.
Quoting P451:
We do have quite a setup unfolding here. Water Vapor imagery:

looks like things should start taking it up a knotch or two hmmm
Quoting hydrus:
I think it is good when the warning is flashing. I might overlook it otherwise. If the whole monitor is flashing, we will get Levi. jk


Hey, Hydrus. Good one! ;)
219
NWUS54 KSHV 102237
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
437 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL DOMINO 33.25N 94.11W
03/10/2010 E1.75 INCH CASS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE
WRIGHT PATMAN NEAR DOMINO.

237. P451
Hey Gro.

Yeah Jeff it looks like I could be in for a lot of rain with this one. Wind too. At least I had a couple of sunny 62 degree days to enjoy after all that non-stop snow.
238. xcool





may get some baseball to softball size hail out of all this
They are breaking out all over.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
23 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 34 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON CAMDEN HICKORY
MARIES MILLER MORGAN
PHELPS PULASKI ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
DOUGLAS GREENE JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON OZARK POLK
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Hydrus. Good one! ;)
Hi Grother, here we go with the severe weather again. A little early this year. It could get ugly tonight and tomorrow. Hope you are doing well. :)
now till midnight expect the worse with a slow diminish during early morning hrs
244. P451
MODIS with the S.Atl system.


Earlier today:





Higher resolution LINK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
now till midnight expect the worse with a slow diminish during early morning hrs
One weatherman said with the warm temperatures in Tennessee tomorrow we could have some strong storms. They have 4 main stations here and they almost always have a different forecast.
Thanks for the Severe updates everyone. Looks like my 70 years old mother is about to be in the bullseye in Ar.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

So far, just a classic super-cell (mostly) hail-only event. So far...not sure how much more it will turn into...

Many of the severe t-storm warnings have included no mention of dangerous winds...some do, though.
Quoting atmoaggie:

So far, just a classic super-cell (mostly) hail-only event. So far...not sure how much more it will turn into...

Many of the severe t-storm warnings have included no mention of dangerous winds...some do, though.




... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND COWLEY COUNTIES...

AT 444 PM CST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHILOCCO TO HARDY TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF GRAINOLA... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL... AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Lively cell moving towards Hot Springs, arkansas. MRV shows rotation in the upper levels, another stronger cell to the southwest of it as well.
Quoting aquak9:
Lively cell moving towards Hot Springs, arkansas. MRV shows rotation in the upper levels, another stronger cell to the southwest of it as well.
It is always like this in mid-April...Oh..It is Mar-10..Hello aquack9.
Quoting hydrus:
Hi Grother, here we go with the severe weather again. A little early this year. It could get ugly tonight and tomorrow. Hope you are doing well. :)


Looks like Spring has Sprung. Hope they don't last. It was a quiet February for tornadoes now this.
Hi ya'll. Really expected severe season to have started before now. But here it is, and here we are.

Yep, SW arkansas. Guess it's all gotta start somewhere.
Quoting aquak9:
Hi ya'll. Really expected severe season to have started before now. But here it is, and here we are.

Yep, SW arkansas. Guess it's all gotta start somewhere.

Yeah. I suppose the relatively benign couldn't last with all of this juice in the air...
Baseball hail and power lines down at SPC reports.


http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
255. JJ
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't believe that for a second. As credible as a triple-digit dewpoint from a broken PWS in the summer...
(j/k, Gro)


Regarding seizure disorders and blinking lights:
http://trace.wisc.edu/peat/photosensitive.php
"What can stimulate photosensitive seizures?

Certain flashing lights, images, and repetitive patterns may cause seizures in persons with photosensitive seizure disorder. Strobe lights, flicker of bright light through leaves, and sunlight flashing off of a series of windows are examples of known stimuli. Some people are known to be affected by the raster rate of cathode ray tube televisions, especially in Europe, where the standard is 50 Hz. Video content, whether on television, film, in computer games, or on the web, may include unsafe flicker, colors, or high-contrast patterns that induce seizure. For example, in 1997 a Pokémon episode broadcast in Japan showed a sequence of flickering images which triggered seizures in hundreds of children."

try putting seizure disorders blinking lights
into google.
New warning:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 509 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF
NEELY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JONATHAN BY 515 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS
A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY
AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like Spring has Sprung. Hope they don't last. It was a quiet February for tornadoes now this.
El-Nino making itself known one last time before departure. I really hope that this years predictions on the 2010 Hurricane season do not come to fruition. We are still recovering from past disasters.
Quoting JJ:

Whoa, there! I wasn't doubting the phenomena...I was mocking Grother's use of the phrase "I don't want to be difficult".
TORNADO WARNING
MSC041-153-110000-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0003.100310T2309Z-100311T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
509 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 509 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF
NEELY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JONATHAN BY 515 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS
A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY
AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3154 8869 3144 8845 3112 8864 3117 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 206DEG 25KT 3120 8868

Quoting atmoaggie:

Whoa, there! I wasn't doubting the phenomena...I was mocking Grother's use of the phrase "I don't want to be difficult".
Yeah, sure ATMO. You just like picking on Peoples...jk I hope you are doing good.:)
this is twice now someone posted a "tornado warning" about a "severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado". i thought a tornado warning meant an actual tornado was headed your way, and not just a potential for one?

506

WOUS20 KWNS 102234

WWASPC

SPC WW-A 102235

LAZ000-TXZ000-102340-



STATUS REPORT ON WW 24



THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.



..MEAD..03/10/10



ATTN...WFO...SHV...



&&



STATUS REPORT FOR WS 24



SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS



LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-

119-127-102340-



LA

. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE



BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO

CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO

GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE

LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA

RED RIVER SABINE UNION

WEBSTER WINN

$$





TXC005-067-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459-499-

102340-



TX

. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE



ANGELINA CASS CHEROKEE

GREGG HARRISON MARION

NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK

SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY

SMITH UPSHUR WOOD

$$





THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE

REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL

INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES

CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

$$
Quoting twhcracker:
this is twice now someone posted a "tornado warning" about a "severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado". i thought a tornado warning meant an actual tornado was headed your way, and not just a potential for one?


This has been a bone of contention with me also. Wrote a long winded entry on the blog here a while back about it. But I'll post them anyways for my area until they come up with a new method. (Need another level in my opinion)
Quoting twhcracker:
this is twice now someone posted a "tornado warning" about a "severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado". i thought a tornado warning meant an actual tornado was headed your way, and not just a potential for one?

Ummm, those come directly from the NWS offices...they issue a warning if radar signatures indicate a likely rotation detected at cloud level. A lot of false warnings occur.

This will get better with the dual-pole radars...coming soon.
265: Isn't that for this morning?

RUC figures the CAPE to be about like so as of 6 pm CST:

(Yellow is 2000 )
Hey JJ

Atmo and I always joke with each other. I put that phrase "I don't want to be difficult" just as a little joke between us. Maybe I shouldn't have put in on the blog. He is a scientist and I am sure knows about the blinking lights phenomenon. But thanks for posting that article anyway. It might help some people.
The blog is dead in the middle of the afternoon? With severe weather to boot? Wow lol.
Quoting Levi32:
The blog is dead in the middle of the afternoon? With severe weather to boot? Wow lol.


ssshhhhhh Taking an after dinner nap. ;) 6:30 here.
dashboard cow man is back!!!!!!!!!

:)
HWRF was run on 90Q but looks like they forgot to put the negative on the longitude.
grothar!!!!

yo!!!!!!

:)
Here's the MODIS true-color image of the mesoscale polar low that hit us this morning as a grand finale of the epic 5-day, 1-2 punch of snow that has dropped 48 inches of snow at my house. The storm is now FINALLY over, after 58 straight hours of snowfall and 28 straight hours of blizzard conditions during the 2nd round.

Hi guys I am getting really happy as the days go by try to think why
Quoting NRAamy:
dashboard cow man is back!!!!!!!!!

:)


Yea, well, my retirement guy wasn't having any luck, :)
Quoting Grothar:
Hey JJ

Atmo and I always joke with each other. I put that phrase "I don't want to be difficult" just as a little joke between us. Maybe I shouldn't have put in on the blog. He is a scientist and I am sure knows about the blinking lights phenomenon. But thanks for posting that article anyway. It might help some people.


Hawk!!!
Quoting Levi32:
The blog is dead in the middle of the afternoon? With severe weather to boot? Wow lol.


SHHHH! Wheel of Fortune is on.
Quoting NRAamy:
grothar!!!!

yo!!!!!!

:)


Amy, How has your weather been. We are expecting the 80's tomorrow. Just hope we don't get any big storms.
Quoting PcolaDan:


ssshhhhhh Taking an after dinner nap. ;) 6:30 here.
Quoting Grothar:


SHHHH! Wheel of Fortune is on.


You guys are funny lol.
Quoting Levi32:
The blog is dead in the middle of the afternoon? With severe weather to boot? Wow lol.

Trying to make a newer version of the Navy's COAMPS model run on my cluster. Losing hair in the process. Quitting 'till the morning...unless I slap my forehead on the way home.

(There are a lot of things the Navy, FNMOC, and NAVO do very well. Coupled atmosphere/ocean model documentation isn't one of them.)
1 'nado and 1 wind report at SPC...57 hail reports.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HWRF was run on 90Q but looks like they forgot to put the negative on the longitude.


I think they may have ment to. Like the whole thing is inverted, forget the land & pretend Antarctica is at the top. The other way & it would go off the map too quick.
284. xcool
Wheel of Fortune rock,
Quoting Levi32:


You guys are funny lol.


Hey Levi, didn't you ever notice that the blog gets quiet at 6:59 and starts up again around 7:59. Most be all us geeks watching the Wheel and Jeopardy. LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:
1 'nado and 1 wind report at SPC...57 hail reports.


mainly hail threat
winds come later overnight maybe
may in fact diminsh to a rain event overnight after midnight
till morn then tomorrow another run of weather
287. xcool
lmao i'm big time geeks haha
Quoting xcool:
lmao i'm big time geeks haha


Wh ch s your favor te show?

I'll buy an i.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Trying to make a newer version of the Navy's COAMPS model run on my cluster. Losing hair in the process. Quitting 'till the morning...unless I slap my forehead on the way home.

(There are a lot of things the Navy, FNMOC, and NAVO do very well. Coupled atmosphere/ocean model documentation isn't one of them.)


Are you serious? I thought you were kidding when you said you were going to do that. Still looking into the buoy fiasco. They whole thing is making less sense. There are some links I might send you this week on question and answer blog on the different systems.
Several tornadoes are being reported right now but the SPC folks are only showing one touchdown. Saline County, Ark is reporting EXTENSIVE DAMAGE as a whole neighborhood is being reported as leveled by a tornado by emergency managment personal.
Quoting Skyepony:


I think they may have ment to. Like the whole thing is inverted, forget the land & pretend Antarctica is at the top. The other way & it would go off the map too quick.


Not sure of that, the nest is movable and it showed the low currently over the US. The GFDL graphics should be showing up soon, the text just came out:

HOUR: .0 LONG: -46.74 LAT: -29.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.12
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -46.12 LAT: -29.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.72
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -45.62 LAT: -30.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.85
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -44.39 LAT: -31.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.33
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -42.95 LAT: -32.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.20
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -41.44 LAT: -32.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.25
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -39.46 LAT: -33.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.18
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -36.70 LAT: -35.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.80
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -33.39 LAT: -37.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -29.69 LAT: -39.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.45
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -25.18 LAT: -42.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.79

One tornado was being caught on live tv via the TWC. That tornado must have been a 1/4 mile wide. I wonder if this is the tornado that caused all this damage near Little Rock.
341
NWUS54 KSHV 110148
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 PM HAIL LAWSON 33.20N 92.48W
03/10/2010 E2.00 INCH UNION AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED.


&&

Lots of damage west of Little Rock so far no injuries.
hey guys check it out

nrtiwlnvragn~ Just doesn't seem like the big low over South America is there & that looks more right inverted. Didn't know the nest moved that far south. Does kinda almost look like running the model on the disorganized blob ~32N38W.
Quoting Skyepony:
nrtiwlnvragn~ Just doesn't seem like the big low over South America is there & that looks more right inverted. Didn't know the nest moved that far south. Does kinda almost look like running the model on the disorganized blob ~32N38W.


They should be able to move the nest in the HWRF similar to the GFDL for 90Q.
My sister and her husband picked the wrong week to be in Clinton Arkansas buying farmland. Clinton is NW of Little Rock:
303. xcool
i buy g
Click this & animate the last 8 frames.. the low in the central part of US sucks in the severe low out of the SW to dance as it establishes a good tap to the ITCZ down deep in the Pacific.
Ugly!

Quoting xcool:
i buy g


That g better stand for a generator if this season keeps up. Looks like an active season ahead. Better keep those graphics coming, xcool.
Quoting Grothar:


Are you serious? I thought you were kidding when you said you were going to do that.

??? Completely serious. We've been running COAMPS operationally for about 8 years in my shop.
Quoting Grothar:


\They whole thing is making less sense. There are some links I might send you this week on question and answer blog on the different systems.

Well, let me see what happens. Boss has been friends with Bill Burnett, NDBC chief, almost as long as we've been running COAMPS. I think they go to church together, too. Hit him up for some info today.
Quoting Skyepony:
Click this & animate the last 8 frames.. the low in the central part of US sucks in the severe low out of the SW to dance as it establishes a good tap to the ITCZ down deep in the Pacific.


Looks kind of like a fujiwhara effect.

SPECIAL STATEMENT. AS DETERMINED BY NOAA NESDIS...THE CYCLONE OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL SEEMS TO BE TAKING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. FINAL DESIGNATION...HOWEVER...IS AT THE
JUDGEMENT OF BRAZILIAN AUTHORITIES. PER THE IMAGERY...THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERS NEAR 30S 48W. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35KT IN CLOSED
VICINITY TO THIS CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
PREVIOUSLY SUSTAINED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS RAPIDLY
DECOUPLING FROM THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MID
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. IN A LULL BETWEEN PERTURBATIONS...
THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR ALOFT MIGHT WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BUT AS THE STEERING FLOW IS TO REMAIN FROM THE
WEST...THIS SYSTEM IS TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
36 HRS...THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 48 HRS.
"Perturbations"

Now there is a word you don't often get a chance to use in a sentence! LOL
307. atmoaggie

There was a good presentation on COAMPS-TC at this years interdepartmental hurricane conference.
Perturbation theory, mathematical methods that give approximate solutions to problems that cannot be solved exactly

Perturbation (geology), changes in the nature of alluvial deposits over time

Perturbation (astronomy), alterations to an object's orbit e.g. caused by gravitational interactions with other bodies

Perturbation theory (quantum mechanics), a set of approximation schemes directly related to mathematical perturbation for describing a complicated quantum system in terms of a simpler one

Perturbation (biology), an alteration of the function of a biological system, induced by external or internal mechanisms

Perturbation (economic), an alteration of the function of an economic system, induced by external or internal mechanisms

Perturbation (machine learning), making changes in the dataset to (re)learn a classifier (used in bagging and boosting).
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
307. atmoaggie

There was a good presentation on COAMPS-TC at this years interdepartmental hurricane conference.

Yep, thanks, saw that one.

Rich Hodur and Sue Chen, good people. (Seriously, the met world is one not-so-big family. Everyone knows everyone.)

Y'all know that Sue Chen has been the Fortran coder behind a lot of our models? MM5, COAMPS, WRF, GFDL(?). That Lady has done more for our numerical modeling than any other...except maybe Eugena Kalnay and Joanne Simpson.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
12:00 PM FST March 11 2010
======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.


At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14 (1002 hPa) located at 11.2S 174.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared and visible imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Organization has improved past 24 hours. The system lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System steered west southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.0

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intesification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.3S 175.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 11.8S 176.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.6S 179.1W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 14F Will Be Issued At Around 08:30 AM UTC...
SPECIAL STATEMENT. AS DETERMINED BY NOAA NESDIS...THE CYCLONE OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE
CYCLONE CENTERS NEAR 30S 48W. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25KT IN
CLOSED VICINITY TO THIS CYCLONE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
PREVIOUSLY SUSTAINED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS RAPIDLY
DECOUPLING FROM THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MID
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. IN A LULL BETWEEN
PERTURBATIONS...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR ALOFT
MIGHT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BUT AS THE STEERING FLOW IS
TO REMAIN FROM THE WEST...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MEANDER
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 30-36 HRS...THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH 48 HRS. THE TIGHT/COMPACT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FAVOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE SERRA DO MAR...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 24-30 HRS. MOST INTENSE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND IN CLOSE VICINITY TO THE
CYCLONE.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number EIGHT
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. FORMER HUBERT (13-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion March 11 2010
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Hubert (990 hPa) located at 21.0S 48.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
within the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 21.3S 46.6E - (Depression sur terre)
24 HRS: 21.9S 45.1E - (Se Dissipant)

Additional Information
=======================
According to satellite imagery (METEO SAT7, NOAA 18 and 19 of 2151z and 2238z), Hubert has made landfall near Mananjary as a severe tropical storm after resumed a westward track over the last hours.

System should maintain a general west southwest track on the northwestern edge of the subtropical highs. Therefore, it is expected to remain overland over the next 24 hours and should dissipate. On late Friday, available 1200z Numerical Weather Prediction models make a remnant low move back over water off the Malagasy southwestern coast (Tulear area). If this happens, potential for re-intensification appears to be poor due to increasing northwesterly shear.
314. atmoaggie

Was sad to hear about Joanne Simpson.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
314. atmoaggie

Was sad to hear about Joanne Simpson.

Yeah. Lost a pioneer in hurricane dynamics, among other things.
Looking at the soundings from 0 Z...looks like more of the same for Arkansas...hail.

Down here, the Slidell WFO launch actually shows some match to nado possibilities. Looks like our reprieve is over (one reported nado near the coast in S Central LA, already.)

NOLA / BR sounding (Slidell):

Click for full size


All soundings here: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
Statement as of 8:55 PM CST on March 10, 2010


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 915 PM CST for
southeastern Cleburne... western white... southern Independence and
west central Jackson counties...

At 849 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located 6 miles east of
Pangburn... or 2 miles southwest of Sunnydale... moving northeast at
35 mph.


A tornado has been confirmed with this storm in the Center Hill
area... .with damage to homes reported.


Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Sunnydale and Pleasant Plains.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are in the path of this storm... go indoors now to an interior
room away from windows! Put as many walls between you and the
outdoors as you can!


A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST Wednesday evening
for Arkansas. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 200 am CST
Thursday morning for eastern Arkansas.

Lat... Lon 3578 9159 3563 9135 3515 9185 3526 9203
time... Mot... loc 0253z 217deg 32kt 3544 9171
Evening Wunderfolk.
I heard it was hailing baseballs and hens somewhere tonight. Was that Bama?
Good grief!
I have been wondering all day what Pottery is doing for water now that a snake has contaminated his 300 gallon cistern.
Understand they're in borderline drought conditions in the Antilles after a weak tropical season last year and the typically dry winter months.
Quoting Chicklit:
Evening Wunderfolk.
I heard it was hailing baseballs and hens somewhere tonight. Was that Bama?
Good grief!

I think that was hen-egg sized hail in southern Arkansas...they should know what size that is there!
Amazing tornado video on TWC. One neighborhood is being reported as completely destroyed. I knew this was going to happen given all the different wind patterns converging on the Southern US. A even worse threat maybe on Friday and this should extend into Kentucky.
Hi Atmo,
Now why would they say "hen egg?"
And egg is an egg and we all know where they come from. I think it was hen-sized hail.
Dr Greg Forbes says this will go all night and we could have some F3 tornadoes in the mix so people in south have your NOAA weather radio on. Diffluent air over the southern states right now with dewpoints in the 60's. Jet max of 195 knts in the area as well.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Atmo,
Now why would they say "hen egg?"
And egg is an egg and we all know where they come from. I think it was hen-sized hail.

I dunno, I don't make it up. Look at post 297.
Riddle:
What do pennies, nickels, walnuts, golf balls, and hen eggs have in common?
EF2 tornado now being reported in Saline county, ARK from earlier today.
1 injury in Center Hill, Arkansas with 9 homes destroyed.
GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
ahhh...you're right.
I suppose that is to clarify it wasn't robin-sized egg hail. Sheesh. I particularly liked the hen visual due to my moniker.
Quoting Chicklit:
What do pennies, nickels, walnuts, golf balls, eggs and hens have in common?

Things my dog would gladly eat.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Dr Greg Forbes says this will go all night and we could have some F3 tornadoes in the mix so people in south have your NOAA weather radio on. Diffluent air over the southern states right now with dewpoints in the 60's. Jet max of 195 knts in the area as well.

Nice plot of the temps and dewpoints current as of 30 minutes ago here: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/sp.gif
Quoting Chicklit:
GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
ahhh...you're right.
I suppose that is to clarify they weren't robin-sized eggs.

Or ostrich...ouch.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Things my dog would gladly eat.

WRONG answer.
Quoting StormW:


Who the "hail" knows. LOL!

Oh, that's good.
Quoting StormW:
SPC STORM REPORTS


I wonder is alot of these tornado reports are from the same one in Arkansas because I was tracking this same cell earlier in Texarkana and now it is MO. What do you think?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Nice plot of the temps and dewpoints current as of 30 minutes ago here: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/sp.gif


I was wondering where you guys go this map from. TKS!
346. JRRP
2006 High 1034

2010 High 1022

Quoting Jeff9641:


I was wondering where you guys go this map from. TKS!

*Most* of the plots I post usually come from somewhere in the links in my blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/comment.html?entrynum=2

Mostly tropical. CONUS severe near the bottom.
What does the difference between the two maps represent,and how does it affect this years hurricane season?
Quoting Skyepony:
Click this & animate the last 8 frames.. the low in the central part of US sucks in the severe low out of the SW to dance as it establishes a good tap to the ITCZ down deep in the Pacific.


Hmm, a frontal storm exploding within the centre of another frontal storm while the first one expands and weakens. We've seen this occurring at least once earlier this winter.
Holy cow, I haven't even heard about this quake...happened after the passage of the giant Mediterranean storm. Link
355. JRRP
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
What does the difference between the two maps represent,and how does it affect this years hurricane season?

the Azores High was pretty strong 2006
and that helped the SST were below average

339. atmoaggie 3:36 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Quoting Chicklit:
GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
ahhh...you're right.
I suppose that is to clarify they weren't robin-sized eggs.

Or ostrich...ouch.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


how would you like football basketball beachball size hail


lol
A nasty tornado hit Pierson, ARK with 3 serious injuries according to EMS spokesman in Little Rock. This town is NE of Little Rock. Also another tornado hit Quitman, ARK with 1 injury and 9 houses damaged. Looks like our total of 3 tornadoes is way under done. Tornadoes hit all around Little Rock this evening.
358. JRRP
Quoting StormW:


The maps show the position of the ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone). This is where the SE and NE Trades meet. When the ITCZ is further north in a hurricane season, the chances of cyclone development along the ITCZ becomes greater, as the ITCZ has more of a chance to "buckle" and throw out a disturbance. You can see in the 2006 picture as compared to the same time for 2010, the relative position of the ITCZ is further north. In fact, I personally don't look for it to be as far north as it is till around, oh let's say June. One thing that partially dictates it's position is the strength of the A/B High, which you can see at the moment is much, much weaker as compared to the 2006 graphic.

You said it
lol..
359. JRRP
me voy a mi cama
All of these reports are from John Robinson at the NWS in Little Rock. Confirmed tornadoes in Little Rock are at 3 now according to John Robinson just in that area alone with 4 total in the state.
Quoting JRRP:

the Azores High was pretty strong 2006
and that helped the SST were below average


Or it was the cause of the SSTs...stronger trade winds, more evaporative cooling of SST.

Winds have almost everything to do with SST variation in the MDR.
Hey anyone in here live in Pinellas County? Did you feel that shaking early in the afternoon I think around 3PM. My windows in the house started rattling at least twice.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey anyone in here live in Pinellas County? Did you feel that shaking early in the afternoon I think around 3PM. My windows in the house started rattling at least twice.


My guess is there are plenty from there.

Did something happen? Explosions somewhere?

And, I thought you were from central or south America, no?
GT. I remember. Georgetown. Visiting?
365. xcool


804

WHXX04 KWBC 110138

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM INVEST 90Q



INITIAL TIME 18Z MAR 10



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 -29.8 46.7 100./ 6.0

6 -29.7 46.1 86./ 5.4

12 -30.2 45.6 133./ 6.4

18 -31.0 44.4 124./13.4

24 -32.0 43.0 125./15.8

30 -32.9 41.4 120./15.3

36 -33.8 39.5 115./19.0

42 -35.2 36.7 117./26.7

48 -37.2 33.4 121./33.2

54 -39.7 29.7 124./38.1

60 -42.7 25.2 123./44.7



STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN
You're having fun with that, aren't you, KOTG. ;)

Unobtrusive and appropriately applied.
its making it interesting i guess or maybe different
As long as you don't post red, it's all good.

But, when you do, it will catch my attention.

I like it, if appropriately applied.

Share the same concerns as others on abuse.

Not worried about you.
i always take care only use when need be
well bed time for me looks like mostly rain event now lets see what first light brings
Goodnight. Just waiting on a malware cleanup on my FIL's system.
Hi centex.

Were you able find any research that is not simply number of sunspots?
It's not about what I say. It is about the data.

I don't listen to others, other than to trigger a "ok, I'll look."

Just seeking the facts.

Listening to others doesn't cut it. I verify.

All science, not just climatologists.

Bedtime.
Quoting Seastep:
It's not about what I say. It is about the data.

I don't listen to others, other than to trigger a "ok, I'll look."

Just seeking the facts.

Listening to others doesn't cut it. I verify.

All science, not just climatologists.

Bedtime.
sorry not pinging you, goodnight
Quoting centex:
Guys/Gals, we really need to call the far right sceptics on the political jargon I see each week on this blog. Normally I post it on the CC blog. I say this because we can't believe your tropical opinion when you take a far right stance on CC/GM which is ony a political stance and no basis in science.


is this all you ever post about???
Quoting centex:
Are there any CC/GW caused by human skeptics who want to debate? They are the ones who need to post scientific research that supports their opinion, We have too much to post and all of ours is peer reviewed. Warning FOX news is a very anti science source and political in nature.


Wow dude take it to the CB and not here first. Second can YOU PROVE THIS ISN'T A CYCLE??????? NO you can't sorry.
Quoting tornadodude:


is this all you ever post about???
Yes, because so many do not get it, public service. When the tropics light up I give my thoughts. But ignore the science quack opinions, gives you a better point of reference. Good to know who the quacks are.There are alot quacks and need to know who they are. Anti science is far to popular here.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number NINE
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. FORMER HUBERT (13-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion March 11 2010
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Hubert (998 hPa) located at 20.5S 48.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
=================
within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
120 NM from the center extending up to 280 NM in the northeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 20.8S 46.1E - (Depression sur terre)
24 HRS: 22.0S 44.6E - (Depression sur terre)
48 HRS: 24.7S 41.6E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.6S 38.8E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
According to multispectral satellite imagery, Former Cyclone Hubert still shows a rather good configuration with convection wrapping around the low level center.

System should maintain a general westward then southwestward track on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Therefore, it is expected to remain overland for the next 24 hours and go out overseas with a very weak circulation. If it happens, potential for re-intensification appears to be poor due to increasing northwestserly shear. This forecast is based on the most availble numerical weather prediction models.
Quoting centex:
Yes

Which earns you an iggy. And yes I'm a scientist
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys check it out


Wasn't paying much attention to the jazz about the hurricane season...ahh, because that Accuweather girl is just too beautiful!!!!!!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
339. atmoaggie 3:36 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Quoting Chicklit:
GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
ahhh...you're right.
I suppose that is to clarify they weren't robin-sized eggs.

Or ostrich...ouch.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


how would you like football basketball beachball size hail


lol

And then there are beachballs. Ouch.....
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
18:00 PM FST March 11 2010
======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.


At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14 (1002 hPa) located at 11.0S 174.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 7 knots.

Organization gradually improving. Primary bands to east and west consolidating and beginning to wrap around low level circulation center. Convection along both bands cooling. Low level circulation lows exposed to southwest of low level circulation center in last visible imagery due to southwest shear. System lies in a diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Outflow good to east and north, developing elsewhere. System steered west southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.0

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.3S 175.9W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 11.9S 177.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 14.0S 179.2W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 14F Will Be Issued At Around 14:30 PM UTC...
Was trying to watch the progress of Arkansas storms - and hoping like crazy for no tornadoes. Thankfully they went around. I'm only maybe 20 miles from Quitman.

But I kept getting blanks in the radar, and the storm track arrows didn't show. Anyone else having a problem? It wasn't just Little Rock's radar. Same problem at other cities.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
18:00 PM FST March 11 2010
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13 (998 hPa) located at 14.5S 168.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position FAIR based on infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the last 12 hours. Organization remains fairly good. System lies along a monsoon trough and under an upper ridge, in low to moderate shear environment. Global models have picked up the system and moves it westward over the next 24-48 hours with some intensification.

Potential for this system to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.
Quoting centex:
Yes, because so many do not get it, public service. When the tropics light up I give my thoughts. But ignore the science quack opinions, gives you a better point of reference. Good to know who the quacks are.There are alot quacks and need to know who they are. Anti science is far to popular here.


well Im gonna tell you now that insulting someone is not a good way to try to get them to agree with you, quack
Debating GW on this blog is incredibly frustrating a stupid, you might as well be arguing over religion I have an opinion but none of you be impacted by it.

Southern hemisphere is heating up, they haven't had a storm in around 20 days
It might be time to buy a swamp buggy.

392. IKE
Quoting Phatkhat:
Was trying to watch the progress of Arkansas storms - and hoping like crazy for no tornadoes. Thankfully they went around. I'm only maybe 20 miles from Quitman.

But I kept getting blanks in the radar, and the storm track arrows didn't show. Anyone else having a problem? It wasn't just Little Rock's radar. Same problem at other cities.


Yeah...it's the same problem on the Mobile,AL and Red Bay,FL. radars. Appears to be on all of them.
G'morning ya'll.

Ike- are ya floating yet? it only hold eleven inches! we can see the old pollen lines on ours.

PhatKat- yep the radars were blanking out last night. Very frustrating.
394. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning ya'll.

Ike- are ya floating yet? it only hold eleven inches! we can see the old pollen lines on ours.

PhatKat- yep the radars were blanking out last night. Very frustrating.


They canceled the flash flood watch west of me. Still under one here but...it ain't happening.

I had .22 inches of rain yesterday. I'll go look at today's total...so far.
395. IKE
I'm at .44 inches of rain so far today. Light to moderate rain falling now..60.3 degrees outside.

I noticed the dogwood trees in town are blooming. Spring is here:)
396. IKE
Radar glitch....

0.44? not bad so far. Better than 4.44.

We're at 0.10. Just a sweet, breezy, overcast morning.
Morning all, Hey Ike how ya doin? Nice and warm down here in w c fl finally. Looks like some really nasty weather coming to this area tonight and friday.
399. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
0.44? not bad so far. Better than 4.44.

We're at 0.10. Just a sweet, breezy, overcast morning.


LOL...don't need 4.44...or what's left of my yard doesn't.


Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Hey Ike how ya doin? Nice and warm down here in w c fl finally. Looks like some really nasty weather coming to this area tonight and friday.


Doing fine this morning.
400. IKE
Rain is just about over here for now. So much for that forecast of "several inches possible".
401. IKE
I see what's happening. Drier air is moving in...

Looks like they sent it to my house in Macon.

much needed rained headed to e cen florida hoping for a good dumping another strange hurricane season ahead. accu weather forecast is strange lots of tropical storms not too many hurricanes at least thats how i understood it
you can send it my way...we'll drain.

ya'll have a good thursday.
Good Morning. Got up early to get to work in downtown Tallahassee to beat the rush. Plenty of rain in our parts this morning; gonna be a mess out there during the rush hour (as I sit here sipping my coffee...........)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Got up early to get to work in downtown Tallahassee to beat the rush. Plenty of rain in our parts this morning; gonna be a mess out there during the rush hour (as I sit here sipping my coffee...........)

Morning as i am doing the same thing. great coffee this fine day.
Good Morning...
Quoting severstorm:

Morning as i am doing the same thing. great coffee this fine day.


Yup. Actually enjoying the rain cause I'm looking forward to everything turing green again over the next few weeks (tired of looking at my brown grass for the last three months)...
Severe wx expected in C FL today get ready because some of these storms could be big hail producers and possibly a tornado or 2.
Quoting leftovers:
much needed rained headed to e cen florida hoping for a good dumping another strange hurricane season ahead. accu weather forecast is strange lots of tropical storms not too many hurricanes at least thats how i understood it

Bastardi said 15 total named storms and 7 landfalling hurricanes, so you misinterpreted it.
SST's look to be warming back up after about a week of cooling...
Quoting Jeff9641:
Severe wx expected in C FL today get ready because some of these storms could be big hail producers and possibly a tornado or 2.
I doubt in the end that much severe weather will get going with today's storms. Although the jet is active over the area, cloud cover will keep temperatures limited which should suppress any chance for a severe storm.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I doubt in the end that much severe weather will get going with today's storms. Although the jet is active over the area, cloud cover will keep temperatures limited which should suppress any chance for a severe storm.


Again your opinion but yes there will be some severe wx in C FL today and you will see come early afternoon once this nasty line of storms south of the FL Panhandle moves in later.
FlWeatherFreak & 9641: What's interesting is the NWS has put out a warning but on Wunderground there is no severe weather threat:
452 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS DURING THE DAY.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST...INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN REPEATEDLY PASSING OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION COULD PRODUCE SHORT TERM ACCUMULATIONS OF WATER ON STREETS...LOW LYING AREAS AND THE LOW SPOTS UNDERNEATH BRIDGES.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STRONG STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATER SPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
$$ WIMMER/LASCODY
And this is on Wunderground:
Forecast for Coastal Volusia County

Updated: 3:40 am EST on March 11, 2010
No Active Advisories
Severe Weather map does not include ECFL.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I doubt in the end that much severe weather will get going with today's storms. Although the jet is active over the area, cloud cover will keep temperatures limited which should suppress any chance for a severe storm.



72.5 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 66 °F

We got a little sneak peak with the last system in CNTRL & SFL, juicy dew points and high RH should off set the cloud cover. Temps already approaching the mid 70's though, it's only 8:45am. The severe threat is supposed to diminish this morning and afternoon with an increased risk starting later this afternoon, evening and into tomorrow.
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Bastardi said 15 total named storms and 7 landfalling hurricanes, so you misinterpreted it.

How can he predict the amount of LANDFALLING hurricanes.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



72.5 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 66 °F

We got a little sneak peak with the last system in CNTRL & SFL, juicy dew points and high RH should off set the cloud cover. Temps already approaching the mid 70's though, it's only 8:45am. The severe threat is supposed to diminish this morning and afternoon with an increased risk starting later this afternoon, evening and into tomorrow.


I have 72 as well with as dewpoint of 67 here in Orlando. Already thunderstorms to my west. Heard some thunder a little bit ago.
Quoting RTLSNK:
Looks like they sent it to my house in Macon.

your at highest risk of the most accum. precip values
PepsiCo is raising prices on its Tropicana orange juice because of the deep freeze that hurt much of Florida’s citrus crop, the company said Wednesday.
PepsiCo said it was shrinking its most popular size by about 8 percent, while maintaining its price, and raising the price on another size starting in May.

The 64-ounce container of orange juice will drop to 59 ounces. The suggested retail price will remain at $3.59.

The price of Tropicana’s gallon container of pure premium orange juice will rise from 5 percent to 8 percent. The suggested retail price now is $6.49.
Link
We are getting hammered here in Gainesville
Quoting doabarrelroll:
We are getting hammered here in Gainesville


It's only going to get worse and a TORNADO WATCH maybe issued within the next hour or so for Central and North Florida as strong to severe storms are forming over W CFL.
Quoting doabarrelroll:

How can he predict the amount of LANDFALLING hurricanes.
thats joe for ya a little off the wall but one never knows could be right maybe he's wrong
I am not crazy about Bastardi but he is entertaining.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number TEN
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. FORMER HUBERT (13-20092010)
16:00 PM Réunion March 11 2010
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Hubert (1000 hPa) located at 20.7S 47.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 21.2S 45.3E - (Depression sur terre)
24 HRS: 22.9S 44.0E - (Depression sur terre)
48 HRS: 25.1S 40.9E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.3S 41.1E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
Under the Malagasy highlands constraint, Former Cyclone Hubert will rapidly destructurate. Strongest winds do no exceed 20-25 knots anymore near the center with strong gusts under squalls. There still reach 25 knot locally 30 knots over the eastern Malagasy coastline. System should maintain a general westward then southwestward track on the northeastern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Therefore, it is expected to remain overland over the next 24 hours and go out overseas, with a very weakened circulation. If this happens, the potential for re-intensification appears to be poor due to increasing northwesterly shear. This forecast is based on the most available numerical weather prediction models.

LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION AS IT TRACKS BACK OVERSEA.
Quoting Jeff9641:


It's only going to get worse and a TORNADO WATCH maybe issued within the next hour or so for Central and North Florida as strong to severe storms are forming over W CFL.


A secondary low is supposed to develop over the Mississippi Valley and re-energize the warm front coming down.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


A secondary low is supposed to develop over the Mississippi Valley and re-energize the warm front coming down.


You can already see it taking shape. The dry air brought in by the parent low will dissipate as the day progresses and this low matures.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
0:00 AM FST March 12 2010
======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.


At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14 (999 hPa) located at 10.9S 175.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots within 60 to 150 NM of center in sectors from northwest through northeast to southeast and southwest. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Organization improving steadily. Primary bands to east and west consolidating and beginning to wrap around low level circulation center. Deep convection developing about low level circulation center region. System lies in a diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Outflow good to east and north, developing elsewhere. System steered west-southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.5

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.2S 176.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 11.8S 177.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.0S 179.6W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 14F Will Be Issued At Around 20:30 PM UTC...
Quoting Chicklit:
FlWeatherFreak & 9641: What's interesting is the NWS has put out a warning but on Wunderground there is no severe weather threat:
452 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS DURING THE DAY.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST...INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN REPEATEDLY PASSING OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION COULD PRODUCE SHORT TERM ACCUMULATIONS OF WATER ON STREETS...LOW LYING AREAS AND THE LOW SPOTS UNDERNEATH BRIDGES.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STRONG STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATER SPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
$$ WIMMER/LASCODY
And this is on Wunderground:
Forecast for Coastal Volusia County

Updated: 3:40 am EST on March 11, 2010
No Active Advisories
Severe Weather map does not include ECFL.

Its not showing on WU, since the NWS statement is just a discussion note, rather than a full-fledged watch or warning.
Just left of center in this loop. Right over Birmingham.

Check visible animation
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Got up early to get to work in downtown Tallahassee to beat the rush. Plenty of rain in our parts this morning; gonna be a mess out there during the rush hour (as I sit here sipping my coffee...........)


Rush hour, funny, all ten minutes of it. I wish it was like that in the Tampa area.
Quoting StormW:


It is a little far fetched to give an exact number...but you can basically do it by using the analogs, and the parameters that are setting up. I personally like Bastardi. Those who have known me for a while, know how accurate I can be in hurricane forecasting. Who do you think I've studied for the past 3-4 years?

Bastardi generates excellent data, and is usually very good with his analysis. My issue with him (and accuweather as a whole) is the level of hype that is applied to storms and weather events. I can do without the hype, personally.
Good evening all, I have some sad news, I have stuffed up my pc and it loks as if I have lost all my weather links, I am so very upset. If anyone knows how to fix missing hal.dll file problem let me know.
I am very down hearted,
Aussie :-(
Sarasota =Bradenton fl
947 am
72f
totally clouded
winds 10=15 knots
looks like 6.30 pm very dark





The air is very unstable. You can see how unstable it is by watching the storms actually form over land. Look how the storms are just forming on the east of Tampa Bay...

They lowered the Total amounts down from 2-3 inches to 1-2 for tomorrow.

They also took away the thunder storm icons for today and tomorrow.
NWS Tampa

Today: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 72. South southwest wind between 16 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. South southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 71. Southwest wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Just using the word possible.

Same thing with Orlando.
NWS Melbourne
Supercell SW of Ocala is definitely exhibiting rotation.
The highest probablity of a severe wx outbreak for central and south FL w/be tomorrow morning thru early evening as a area of low pressure forms in the eastern GOM and moves ashore w/a strong jet stream over FL,I believe we could see a dozen+ tornado reports tomorrow and tornado watches are a 90% probabilty,IMO.....today severe wx should be isolated w/highest chance in NE FL
7.2 Magnitude in Chile


7.2 Mw - LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 7.2 Mw
Date-Time 11 Mar 2010 14:39:48 UTC
11 Mar 2010 11:39:48 near epicenter
11 Mar 2010 09:39:48 standard time in your timezone

Location 34.290S 71.950W
Depth 35 km
Distances 133 km (83 miles) N (349 degrees) of Talca, Chile
137 km (85 miles) S (191 degrees) of Valparaiso, Chile
147 km (92 miles) SW (233 degrees) of SANTIAGO, Chile

Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 12.5 km; Vertical
Parameters Nph = 54; Dmin = 597.7 km; Rmss = 1.13 seconds; Gp = 72°
M-type = Mw; Version = 7
Event ID US 2010tsa6 ***This event supersedes event AT00831838
Update time = Thu Mar 11 15:00:06 UTC 2010


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 7.2 2010/03/11 14:39:48 -34.290 -71.950 35.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE

Just saw your post, will go see what's on the news.
7.2 Earthquake in Chile Just Now

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the earthquake magnitude and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts. At coastal locations which have experienced strong ground shaking, local tsunamis are possible due to underwater landslides.

At 6:40 AM Pacific Standard Time on March 11, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.2 occurred near the coast of central Chile . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii will issue messages for Hawaii and other areas of the Pacific outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska.

This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)
USGS Link
One question: Why call slight tropical depressions "Invest ##" etc.?

I thought "Invest" means to make your money work for you.

In this day and age it seems that so many words have had their meaning derailed.

Has the human race been too dumbed down to think of more descriptive words for various ideas, objects and concepts?

Give me a break!
dynamics not their for a severe wx outbreak over central/south FL,IMO
Hodographs look conductive enough for a continuation of rotating Supercells

TBW:



XMR:



I won't be surprised to see a Tornado Watch being issue to ensure the public stays more alert to the current developing WX.
The Pineapple Express is Pounding the South. Lots of rain coming!



I DO NOT LIKE THIS DRY SLOT NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA! This might become very severe during the day!


448. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:
7.2 Magnitude in Chile


7.2 Mw - LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 7.2 Mw
Date-Time 11 Mar 2010 14:39:48 UTC
11 Mar 2010 11:39:48 near epicenter
11 Mar 2010 09:39:48 standard time in your timezone

Location 34.290S 71.950W
Depth 35 km
Distances 133 km (83 miles) N (349 degrees) of Talca, Chile
137 km (85 miles) S (191 degrees) of Valparaiso, Chile
147 km (92 miles) SW (233 degrees) of SANTIAGO, Chile

Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 12.5 km; Vertical
Parameters Nph = 54; Dmin = 597.7 km; Rmss = 1.13 seconds; Gp = 72°
M-type = Mw; Version = 7
Event ID US 2010tsa6 ***This event supersedes event AT00831838

Central Florida needs to look out.

OK we are now under a tornado watch in w c fl.
452. JRRP
yo dawgs