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Rare snowstorm hits Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on December 12, 2008

A rare early December heavy snowstorm hit Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi yesterday, setting several records. It was the earliest measurable snowfall in recorded history at Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Lake Charles. Also, this snow event set the all time record snowfall amounts for the month of December at Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia, and was the first measurable snowfall in recorded history for the month of December at Lafayette. In Mississippi, up to 5 inches of snow fell on areas south of Jackson. The snow knocked out power to 83,000 and caused numerous traffic accidents and road closures across Southeast Louisiana. The snow was caused by an upper-level low pressure system that deepened over the Gulf of Mexico. The snow was unusual because it occurred when the surface temperatures were 32 to 35 degrees.

The one inch of snow reported in New Orleans was that city's earliest snow on record. The previous earliest date for measurable snowfall in New Orleans was Dec. 22, 1989. New Orleans' last snowfall, in 2004, was a dusting. The record snowfall for the city is about 5 inches, recorded Dec. 30, 1963.


Figure 1. Yesterday's snowstorm brought a festive blanket of white to Magee, Mississippi. Image credit: SouthernLady.

A few selected snow amounts from yesterday's storm:

Louisiana
-------------
Amite 8.0 inches
rossroads 6.0 inches
Hammond 6.0 inches
Mount Herman 6.0 inches
Opelousas 6.0 inches
Washington 6.0 inches
Covington 6.0 inches
Baton Rouge 3.0 inches
Plaquemine 2.5 inches
New Orleans 1.0 inches
Lafayette 1.0 inches
New Iberia 0.8 inches
NWS Lake Charles 0.4 inches

Mississippi
---------------
Columbia 5.0 inches
Jayess 5.0 inches
Brookhaven 5.0 inches
Prentiss 4.0 inches

Texas
--------
Lumberton 4.0 inches
West Beaumont 4.0 inches
Woodville 3.0 inches
Beaumont City 2.5 inches
SE TX regional Arpt 1.8 inches
Orange 1.0 inches
Port Neches 1.0 inches
Jasper 0.5 inches

So what happened to global warming?
Record snow events inevitably bring comments like, "so what happened to global warming?" First of all, no single weather event can prove or disprove the existence of climate change or global warming. One needs to look at the entire globe over a period of decades to evaluate whether or not climate change is occurring. It might be instructive to look at what global snow cover is doing this season (it's about 10% below average, Figure 2), but this doesn't mean global warming is occurring. This year's reduced snow cover could be due to natural seasonal variations. Only global average temperatures, when viewed over a time scale of decades, can prove or disprove the existence of global warming. Global average temperatures, when averaged over a decades-long period that removes the "bumps" associated with natural seasonal weather fluctuations, show that global warming is occurring.

Secondly, as both myself and wunderground climate change expert Dr. Ricky Rood have pointed out, global warming won't necessarily lead to a decrease in snowfall in all regions. If it is cold enough to snow, we may actually see increased snow in many locations. Global warming puts more moisture in the atmosphere, due to fact that higher global temperatures evaporate more moisture off of the oceans. I expect that coming decades will bring many record snowfalls, due to the increased moisture available in the atmosphere.


Figure 2. Northern Hemisphere snow cover on December 9, 2008 (blue areas) compared to average (green line). Northern Hemisphere snow cover was about 10% below average the first week of December. Since October, Northern Hemisphere snow cover has been about 5% below average. Bob Hart at Florida State has put together a nice set of regularly updating images showing the current state of global snow cover.

Subtropical Storm Rene possible in the Atlantic next week
The trough of low pressure that brought snow to the deep south will track eastward over the Atlantic over the next few days, reaching the central Atlantic north of the Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday. On Monday or Tuesday, the computer models unanimously agree that the southern portion of the trough will pinch off and form a "cut-off low"--an extratropical storm that is cut off from the jet stream. This low is expected to track slowly westward to a point midway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by late next week. The low will be over waters marginally warm enough--25°C--to support formation of a subtropical storm, and phase space diagrams from Florida State indicate that this storm will be warm-cored. Wind shear is forecast to be low enough to allow a subtropical or tropical storm to form, and I give a medium (20-50% chance) that we will see Subropical Storm Rene in the Atlantic next week.

Jeff Masters
Snow in Metairie, LA
Snow in Metairie, LA
Levee in Metairie
New Orleans Snow Storm
New Orleans Snow Storm
Snowing in South Ms!
Snowing in South Ms!
Texas Snow
Texas Snow
Pearland Texas Snow on my car

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doc. Quite interesting how far they got snow
Subtropical Storm Rene possible in the Atlantic next week

Thanks doc.....looks like the 2008 season continues....
* south
Always desperate to prove the Global Warming Swindle....
With that round of winter weather in the south, the South has announced that the rest of winter has been canceled. Nothing but 60's and up for the rest of the season starting Sunday in Dixie...
Next weeks arctic blast coming down the plains is going to make things interesting again. Arctic air usually pushes south under its own density regardless of the unfavorable SW flow of the jet stream. were talking some serious cold air plunging down into the plains next week.

Another Gulf coast snow event?? we shall see.
This was an awesome storm! I live about 20 miles south of Baton Rouge in Gonzales and we had about 2.5 inches of snow...give or take.

On my way to work the boss called to tell me the office was closed, so I pulled off at the Highland Road exit to build a snowman (cause I wasnt sure how much longer the snow would last). I have plenty of pictures that I will share soon!

I built two snowmen about 4 feet tall.

It's hard to believe that we can actually say places around southeast Louisiana had over HALF A FOOT of snow! That, for this part of the south, truely is a blizzard. LOL

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
lol,glad you people are enjoying the snow in the south,its such a rare occurence the kids must have gone crazy,enjoy,snow can be a lot of fun,but not driving.
Wow

It was a blizzard for LA

the videos I saw showed such a thing plus the tallies prove it too

PS about pearland if you lived in the east side of town you got alot of snow but where I live has a lake and then there are some industrial plants about a 10 min drive from me so that could explain why my less than a 10th of an inch melted so quickly
Snow in the south this early in the year. The shuttle is suppose to make its trip from LA to KSC today between 12 noon and 2:45 PM. Those in the path may want to keep an eye in the sky to possibly see a fly over or landing.
4.14 inches of rain since yesterday,now that would have been one heck of a snow storm
sounds like it NE

I would rather dig out from 4 feet of snow then deal with this 3/4 inches of ice

I cant imagine those places that got hit with 1 to 3 inches of ice
Interesting runs:

CMC

GFS
Thanks for the great pics and the update Doc.
Quoting Bonedog:
sounds like it NE

I would rather dig out from 4 feet of snow then deal with this 3/4 inches of ice

I cant imagine those places that got hit with 1 to 3 inches of ice


Bone,remember the ice storm of 1998,its incredible the damage that can result from ice storms,it takes weeks to recover from a major ice storm
12 months ago we got hit with 3 inches of ice now we have another round headed our way . got the generator ready!
8. NEwxguy 9:40 AM CST on December 12, 2008
lol,glad you people are enjoying the snow in the south,its such a rare occurence the kids must have gone crazy,enjoy,snow can be a lot of fun,but not driving.


Kids!? I think the adults enjoyed it just as much if not more! My grandma is 88, and said she never saw that much snow in Baton Rouge...ever.

According to our local meteorologist there was more snow back in 1940, but she still lived more towards New Orleans then.
Quoting hondaguy:
8. NEwxguy 9:40 AM CST on December 12, 2008
lol,glad you people are enjoying the snow in the south,its such a rare occurence the kids must have gone crazy,enjoy,snow can be a lot of fun,but not driving.


Kids!? I think the adults enjoyed it just as much if not more! My grandma is 88, and said she never saw that much snow in Baton Rouge...ever.

According to our local meteorologist there was more snow back in 1940, but she still lived more towards New Orleans then.


lol,that's pretty cool,she finally got to see a lot of snow at her age
Quoting hondaguy:
This was an awesome storm! I live about 20 miles south of Baton Rouge in Gonzales and we had about 2.5 inches of snow...give or take.

On my way to work the boss called to tell me the office was closed, so I pulled off at the Highland Road exit to build a snowman (cause I wasnt sure how much longer the snow would last). I have plenty of pictures that I will share soon!

I built two snowmen about 4 feet tall.

It's hard to believe that we can actually say places around southeast Louisiana had over HALF A FOOT of snow! That, for this part of the south, truely is a blizzard. LOL

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!


I second that, a blizzard for us. Surely looked like one for a few hours:


Even with being above freezing most of the time, we still have snow in Covington. Probably 2 inches still on the house and in the yard. Will entirely be gone sometime this evening, I think.

I hope you got to see a snow blanketed area in last night's full moon...beautiful.
Unfortunately I didnt get to see the snow under the moon. In Gonzales we only got about 2.5 inches or so, and it was almost all gone by 6pm.

Had we gotten 6 inches it'd still be there! :(

Kinda glad we didnt get that much though. I heard a lot of Hammond and the surrounding area lost power for hours due to snapping limbs falling on power lines.

Looking from the 3rd story here at work I still see small patches of snow, but it's almost all gone. I work in Baton Rouge right near I12.
Quoting hondaguy:
Unfortunately I didnt get to see the snow under the moon. In Gonzales we only got about 2.5 inches or so, and it was almost all gone by 6pm.

Had we gotten 6 inches it'd still be there! :(

Kinda glad we didnt get that much though. I heard a lot of Hammond and the surrounding area lost power for hours due to snapping limbs falling on power lines.

Looking from the 3rd story here at work I still see small patches of snow, but it's almost all gone. I work in Baton Rouge right near I12.



There were power issues in downtown Covington, too. Thankfully didn't lose it in my neighborhood.

On my commute to Slidell, it was gone by the time I got to Lacombe. Looks like a swath from Livingston to Covington (and points north) got enough for it to stick around for a day. A distance of ~30 miles along I-12.
I've been patiently waiting for 10 years now to get a snowcation, only missed 3 days in that 10. I only get 1 day off a week plus 6 federal days so I am wishcasting for snow event to bury central Kansas.
Anyone have info on next arctic system?
What is the world coming to when Louisiana has more snow than Chicago in December?!
Feb 1895 it snowed 24" in Houston, TX
12" in Baton Rouge.

So it can happen and will happen again.
Even Miami has had snow before (1979---I think).
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx Link
Jeff,

If it we get more snow in Global warming, we are going to get cooling. The cooling effects of snow (Latent heat of melting and evaporation) will easily overwhelm the contribution of warming from CO2.


Cancun on Wednesday,..Nawlins yesterday..

Pass the Noxzema..

Surfmom has updated her blog and Gabriel doing even better today! Amazing his recovery~
how much is al gore paying you guys?
What's unusual about the snow occurring when the surface temperature was 32 to 35 degrees? This is very common.
Nothing like the sound of sleet on Palms..



Post # 29...my God.....that's worse than me in a dress....
Still some snow on the ground here even though it's 50 degrees and the sun is shining bright.

I got more like 7 inches of snow at my place outside of town.

Thanks for choosing my pic Jeff, I made it into a card. I hope everyone has a:

Photobucket
#34....There is nothing worse than you in a dress!

wow

WWW.TORNADOLINKS.COM
20-50 percent chance of Rene already that's high hopes
Would this be "falling rapidly?" ;)

29.78 -0.17
Wow, possible STS Rene this weekend. And... TS Dolphin?! LOL
Possible subtropical storm Rene in the Atlantic in December,

Gulf coast snow in December that has more accumalation than in Chicago and New England,

Huge Arctic Blast coming down the pike next week causing total chaos somewhere.
Quoting presslord:
Post # 29...my God.....that's worse than me in a dress....


Don't flatter yourself... lol
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
3:00 AM JST December 13 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (998 hPa) located near 14.2N 138.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.7N 133.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 14.2N 131.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.7N 130.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Patrap, is that you in that pic?!?!?!?


From Spring Texas.....What a year it has been with Hurricane Ike and now Snow. At least the temps were moderate enough as not to lose power..

It was very pretty.
Check out how much snow was still on the ground in SE LA as of the Terra pass a couple of hours ago.

All of the white on Land in LA/MS is NOT clouds, but snow cover.

Nice shot there atmo.
Well If Rene does form it wouldn't surprise me. I really think the NHC should extend the official Bounds from May 1st to December 31st.
Quoting Drakoen:
Nice shot there atmo.


Thanks. I bet there are some forecasters not used to thinking about solar insolation and surface albedo being as dynamical as they are when there is an area of snow cover like this. I wonder if this area is large enough to have an effect...

In the south, the albedo is usually the albedo. I doesn't change (spatially) all that much.
Good Afternoon!

Peculiar weather pattern we've been having. First, snow, then, 70 degree temperatures, and now, STS Rene!
As for T.S. Dolphin, was that named after the animal or is Dolphin a human name in an Asian language?
Quoting tillou:
Patrap, is that you in that pic?!?!?!?


That's a pic from nola.com Photo section.Link

Im not that graceful either.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Thanks. I bet there are some forecasters not used to thinking about solar insolation and surface albedo being as dynamical as they are when there is an area of snow cover like this. I wonder if this area is large enough to have an effect...

In the south, the albedo is usually the albedo. I doesn't change (spatially) all that much.


Great minds think alike lol. I was thinking the same think. The snow depth and the solar reflection...snow still on the ground even when temps are well above freezing.
Just a short "hello" from Germany. I've been lurking for already some weeks, enjoying your discussions and the interesting developpments of weather around the GOM. Here, in the mid of Germany (Rhine River) weather is usually (and luckily) quite boring.
When your beautiful snow in the south of CONUS is gone, enjoy those new pics from the south of Swiss etc. (link) A little bit toooo much of this white stuff in a very short time
http://www.wetteronline.de/wotexte/redaktion/fotostrecke/2008/12/11_sg1.htm
Link
TS Dolphin IR doesn't anyone else use my link because I think it is helpful
new orleans was amazing yesterday we had 2 inches at my house
When are you going to recognize that "global warming" is nothing more than the warm portion of long term weather cycles. Even global warming believers admit that temperature during the 20th Century only changed by about 0.17% (Note for non-mathematicians: the per cent change has to be calculated using the Kelvin scale because of the arbitrary zero points of the Celsius and Fahrenheit scales.) That difference could indicate nothing more than changes in equipment or changes in the thermal characteristics of measuring locations.

Climate varies according to long term and short term cycles. Accurate detailed global weather data is only available for about a century. Satellite data is available for only a few decades.

Observations of the sun by scientists over several centuries indicate variation in sun spot activity may be associated with temperature cycles, but the exact relationship is unknown because scientists have only recently been able to measure the sun's output without the interference of earth's atmosphere.

Past observations indicate the sun has centuries long cycles of activity as well as the more closely studied 11 year cycle. Astrophysicists believe the sun may be entering a quieter period in its sunspot cycle which in the past has been associated with colder temperatures.

Incidentally, the claim that trapping infrared radiation causes heating in greenhouses was disproved a century ago by physicist R.W. Wood who invented infrared photography among other things. http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/wood_rw.1909.html

Haha here in northern virginia its just feezing. we were under a winter weather advisory a few hours ago, but no snow :( you guys are so lucky... we havent gotten a good snow storm in a few years... just ice!
Quoting Drakoen:


Great minds think alike lol. I was thinking the same think. The snow depth and the solar reflection...snow still on the ground even when temps are well above freezing.


Drakoen

can you tell me where to get information about CAPE?

such as CAPE forecasts etc.


everyo
oops... i meant freezing
Wow dolphin looks dazzling to me.

I will write an analysis tomorrow on this system tomorrow.

*I will also write an analysis on the Atlantic, the models are expecting a strong hybrid storm to form.
Quoting Weatherchikkk17:
Haha here in northern virginia its just feezing. we were under a winter weather advisory a few hours ago, but no snow :( you guys are so lucky... we havent gotten a good snow storm in a few years... just ice!

I live in Fairfax and I know. I had to rake just a few minutes ago and it froze my fingers off (not literally) and the 07-08 snow season was horrible for school snow-days only one day off and only 6 max hours of good sledding snow. I really hope we get more this year
Quoting futuremet:


Drakoen

can you tell me where to get information about CAPE?

such as CAPE forecasts etc.


everyo


Sure. I'll send you an email shortly.
Link
storm by Madagascar? probably not but I'm paranoid like that
Wow, I just saw the full moon at perigee! It was snowing here in S. Ontario. The Weather Network says it's -68C here, lol!
Quoting Drakoen:


Sure. I'll send you an email shortly.


Thanks
The full moon Friday night will be the biggest one of the year as Earth's natural satellite reaches its closest point to our planet.

my blog #485 for more info
The biggest full moon of the past 140 years (and until the 2100s) happened in December 1999.
area of interest
est pos
23.8n/51.9w
70. P451
Speaking of the heavens.... I hope everyone got a good look at the little dance the Moon, Venus, and Jupiter were doing with one another evening to evening about a week ago.

Also glad to see winter come about as star gazing is so much clearer in the cooler air. Also the most impressive part of the sky is visible early now. Orion, Taurus, Gemini, Auriga, Canis Minor and Major -- just so much going on in there!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
6:00 AM JST December 13 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 6:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (998 hPa) located near 14.2N 137.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 133.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
45 HRS: 14.2N 131.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
69 HRS: 14.7N 130.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2300z 12DEC)
==========================================
An area of convection (95S) located at 11.3S 50.2E or 55 NM northeast of Madagascar. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a low level circulation with increased curvature of deep convection within the northeastern quadrant. However, interaction with northern Madagascar has temporarily disrupted significant consolidation. A 1414z Quikscat Pass indicates 15-20 knot winds near the low level circulation center with higher rain-contaminated winds within the southwest quadrant. Latest satellite intensity fixes from PGTW and KNES range from 25-30 knots. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of low vertical wind shear and increased radial outflow as evident in animated water vapor imagery.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. In view of the improved environment and convective signature, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
TCNA21 RJTD 130000
CCAA 13000 47644 DOLPHIN(0822) 30142 11369 13234 230// 92717=

TS DOLPHIN (0822)
14.2N 136.9E
Dvorak Intensity T3.0



SSD: T3.5
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
9:00 AM JST December 13 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (992 hPa) located near 14.2N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.0N 132.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 13.5N 130.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.5N 129.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Dolphin is coming together..

CIMSS Satalite blog has some awesome animations & stills of the snow event.
Dolphin
77. P451
Wow, it's gone off the charts on the scale there. Makes it look like it has an "eye" but it doesn't. It's just completely off the IR chart.

Ok nobody has posted in an hour. There is a TS in the Wpac, record snow in the south, and the possibility of TS or STS Rene next week this blog should be more active considering a few days ago this blog was busy with nothing happening. Can someone else please say something?!?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok nobody has posted in an hour. There is a TS in the Wpac, record snow in the south, and the possibility of TS or STS Rene next week this blog should be more active considering a few days ago this blog was busy with nothing happening. Can someone else please say something?!?


Well I just dropped by All4.. but I expected the blog to be dead as it is nearing Christmas and people need to shop etc and there is really no major (change to this side of world) Wx going on right now that I know of. Mid next week might be very different.
I just saw the moon again, it appears large and bright, and even though it was snowing, I could still see the moon very clearly. A halo has formed around the moon through thin cloud, and about half an hour ago I saw hundreds of snowflakes gliding across the moon with binoculars. By the way I wasn't able to see the Dec 1 conjunction because it was cloudy, but the moon tonight sure is amazing! Someone from Florida said the moon looks like it's pulsating. By the way, I'm also a fairly experienced amateur astronomer. On a good night I can find the Andromeda Galaxy through my telescope, for example, in just 10 minutes. Back to the tropics, Dolphin looks pretty impressive. It is forecast to become a typhoon.
Great pictures everyone!! Looks like y'all are having a blast in the snow... here in Buffalo, we only got a dusting from that storm! GO FIGURE! Welcome to my kind of storm!! :oP

Take care all!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
12:00 PM JST December 13 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 12:00 PM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (992 hPa) located near 14.1N 136.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.8N 132.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
45 HRS: 13.5N 130.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
69 HRS: 14.5N 129.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting reasonmclucus:
When are you going to recognize that "global warming" is nothing more than the warm portion of long term weather cycles. Even global warming believers admit that temperature during the 20th Century only changed by about 0.17% (Note for non-mathematicians: the per cent change has to be calculated using the Kelvin scale because of the arbitrary zero points of the Celsius and Fahrenheit scales.) That difference could indicate nothing more than changes in equipment or changes in the thermal characteristics of measuring locations.

Climate varies according to long term and short term cycles. Accurate detailed global weather data is only available for about a century. Satellite data is available for only a few decades.

Observations of the sun by scientists over several centuries indicate variation in sun spot activity may be associated with temperature cycles, but the exact relationship is unknown because scientists have only recently been able to measure the sun's output without the interference of earth's atmosphere.

Past observations indicate the sun has centuries long cycles of activity as well as the more closely studied 11 year cycle. Astrophysicists believe the sun may be entering a quieter period in its sunspot cycle which in the past has been associated with colder temperatures.

Incidentally, the claim that trapping infrared radiation causes heating in greenhouses was disproved a century ago by physicist R.W. Wood who invented infrared photography among other things. http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/wood_rw.1909.html



LOL... Everything you say is false... LOL

How do you explain the following?

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

You can't! LOL!!! Also, improved data suggests that the variations are less (indeed, the 1800s and 1900s are virtually the same as far as solar activity is concerned when using data other than sunspot numbers, and using said data to correct the early data which was under-counted as they couldn't see what we can today).

And regarding the ability of CO2 to trap heat, you ought to read this (I know you won't though because it defies your perverted ideology). Plus, anything from that long ago was likely to have been refuted too (denialists just loooooooooove to post very old articles, which were later overturned; e.g. the recent "cooling oceans" study that was found to have been in error; and stick their heads in the sand against that fact).

PS: You know all of those supposed lists of "scientists" who deny global warming? Well, this ought to give anybody pause, especially the first one, and the last one:

List of "Scientists" Includes Economists, Amateurs, TV Weathermen and Industry Hacks

# 84 have either taken money from, or are connected to, fossil fuel industries, or think tanks started by those industries.

# 49 are retired

# 44 are television weathermen

# 20 are economists

# 70 have no apparent expertise in climate science

# Several supposed skeptics have publicly stated that they are very concerned about global warming, and support efforts to address it. One claims he was duped into signing the list and regrets it.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I live in Fairfax and I know. I had to rake just a few minutes ago and it froze my fingers off (not literally) and the 07-08 snow season was horrible for school snow-days only one day off and only 6 max hours of good sledding snow. I really hope we get more this year


I got 2 snow days last year cumulative um... more than 2 feet and sledding for 4 straight months... : P LOL im in MI, tho.
I bet you also believe in stuff like this... LOL!!!

Apollo Moon Landing hoax conspiracy theories
9/11 conspiracy theories
Flat Earth
Flying Spaghetti Monster
Creationism (this in particular also states that the Earth is only a few thousand years old, so evidence for past climate changes is faked, including the modern-day analog (greenhouse gas induced) PETM event 55 million years ago)
It has been cold in the United States recently, no? Well, then that is because you live in the East and it indeed has been cold recently - but not the country as a whole:

Temperature Highlights

* For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for November was 44.5°F (6.9°C), which was 2.0°F (1.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 10th warmest November on record, based on preliminary data.

87. Inyo
Regardless of global warming, the cold isn't limited to the eastern half of the US. We are expecting snow just about everywhere in Washington and Oregon, and in the hills above San Francisco and Los Angeles. Where I live in Santa Barbara, the Santa Lucia Mountains above the city could get several inches of snow, and even the Santa Monica Mountains (malibu area) may get a dusting. It's COLD!
Quoting Inyo:
Regardless of global warming, the cold isn't limited to the eastern half of the US. We are expecting snow just about everywhere in Washington and Oregon, and in the hills above San Francisco and Los Angeles. Where I live in Santa Barbara, the Santa Lucia Mountains above the city could get several inches of snow, and even the Santa Monica Mountains (malibu area) may get a dusting. It's COLD!


The CPC has been showing a pattern change for some time now, colder than normal across the West (centered in the Pacific NW) and warmer in the East (centered in the SE), the opposite of what I posted above (December probably won't be the exact opposite though since the first 10 days were similar to November). Also noticed that the CPC has been showing high chances of above normal rainfall over the Southwest, including California.
Quoting reasonmclucus:
When are you going to recognize that "global warming" is nothing more than the warm portion of long term weather cycles. Even global warming believers admit that temperature during the 20th Century only changed by about 0.17%

Isn't it still global warming, regardless of the cause? I think regardless of whether scientists agree as to the underlying causes, i. e. naturally occurring vs. manmade, they do agree that a warming trend is occurring.

Thus your point is moot.
Extensive flash flooding has hit the south-west of England overnight, according to the emergency services.

Somerset and Devon were especially badly hit, with up to 18 inches of rain in places, said Norman Evans of Devon and Somerset Fire Service.

He said the service had received about 100 calls, and crews had been called out to deal with up to 10 rescues involving flooded homes or vehicles.

Mr Evans urged motorists to travel only if the trip was absolutely neccessary.

Road conditions were "atrocious", he said. The worst hit areas were said to be Chard, Ilminster, Shepton Mallet and Street.

Flood warnings

The BBC in Plymouth said four people were rescued from their cars in separate incidents when they became stuck in floodwater in Devon.

The environment agency issued flood warnings for the River Axe, the River Isle and the River Tone.

Mr Evans said the rain was expected to move away from Devon into Somerset during the morning, and then on into Dorset and further east.

The Environment Agency has one severe flood warning in place for the River Lyd in Lydney, Gloucestershire, and a further 26 flood warnings across south-west England. There is also a warning of severe rain for Wiltshire.
Phillipines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

The Tropical Storm East of Bicol region is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this evening and it will be named "ULYSSES".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1 (0900z)
==============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ulysses (DOLPHIN) located at 13.9°N 135.5°E or 1,130 km east of Bicol region has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 km/h (45 knots) with gustiness up to 100 km/h (55 knots).

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" is still too far to affect any part of the country.
That is a tremendous amount of rain Cotillion!
I hope you're not in the middle of that.

Quoting vortfix:
That is a tremendous amount of rain Cotillion!
I hope you're not in the middle of that.



Thankfully not, it's damp here but not flooded.
Glad to hear that.
Are you expecting more rain?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008

THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO E CUBA WITH
REINFORCING FRONT ON ITS HEELS EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NOTED W OF THE SECONDARY
FRONT AND IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS MOVES NE OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND STRENGTHENS WITH VEERING NE WINDS LATER TODAY
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND SUN N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 9-14 FT BY LATE SUN. 20-30 KT
WINDS CONTINUE INTO MON OVER VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH NWW3
BUILDING SEAS TO 10-16 FT. TRAJECTORY AND FOCUS OF THE WINDS
CHANGES TUE AND WED WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRIMARILY E
OF 70W. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESS WELL E OF THE ZONE N OF 25N AND ALONG 55W.
THIS TRAJECTORY
OF WINDS AND SWELLS MAY PUSH 12-14 FT SEAS WITH 11-12 SEC
PERIODS INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES BOTH DAYS. AS A FINAL
NOTE THE AREA OF LOW PRESS MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

Quoting vortfix:
Glad to hear that.
Are you expecting more rain?



Hey, it's England, Vort.

The only things more certain than rain are death and taxes. :p
Hey, it's England, Vort.

The only things more certain than rain are death and taxes. :p



Oh yeah...that was a pretty dumb question!
LOL

Northeast ice storm leaves 1.25M without power


CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — As it got down into the teens and single digits in New Hampshire, people who lost power from a massive ice storm showed up at some shelters by the dozens.

"We're just loading up more cots and more blankets; I guess we're up to 36 people already," Kevin Pratt, fire chief in the southern New Hampshire town of Raymond said Friday night.

The local middle school usually houses 25 people comfortably, but if the need's there, they'll accommodate, he said. Visitors could eat a spaghetti-and-meatball dinner and take a shower.

"People's houses are getting cold and they're getting cold," Pratt said. "They're wise."

The town has about 10,000 residents, just about all of whom were in the dark following the storm, which left 1.25 million homes and businesses in New England without electricity; some were expected to stay that way for at least several days.

In New Hampshire, emergency management officials, the Red Cross and local communities opened at least 25 shelters across the state.

Gov. John Lynch, who requested a federal emergency declaration in order to receive generators, cots and other supplies from the government, urged residents to check on their neighbors, especially those who are elderly and live alone.

"I think there's no substitute for that kind of neighbor-to-neighbor assistance that New Hampshire is traditionally famous for," Lynch said.

The ice storm compared with some of the Northeast's worst, especially in New Hampshire, where more than half the state — 400,000-plus homes and businesses — was without power. There were far fewer outages during the infamous Ice Storm of '98, when some residents spent more than a week in the dark.

"All the motels have no electricity, and that's why I'm here," said Duke Straychan of Hampton, who came to stay overnight at Portsmouth High School. He can't do without power because he uses an oxygen tank at night. People at the shelter dined on American chop suey and shepherd's pie and watched "The Polar Express" in the cafeteria.

Hot meals of turkey and mashed potatoes were delivered to people staying at Londonderry High School. There were about 100 visitors with more expected, said Leslie Shaffer, a spokeswoman for the American Red Cross. She believed most would still be there on Saturday.

The numbers also were rising at Nashua High School South, as well, as surrounding towns filled up their own shelters, said Mark Sousa, the city's emergency manager.

People lost power as far south as Pennsylvania, but most of the outages were in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine and New York. Ice-covered trees cracked and fell on roads and cars.

"This is pathetic," said Bob Cott of Portland, Maine, who lost power. "I'm already sick of winter and we have nine days to go before it officially begins."

At least one death was related to the storm: New Hampshire officials said a 49-year-old Danville man who lived in a camper died of carbon monoxide poisoning after turning on his generator when his power went out Thursday night.

Both Lynch and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick declared states of emergency Friday morning and called up members of the National Guard. Five hundred Massachusetts Guard members were cleaning up debris and clearing access to downed power lines. Lynch put 150 on alert and deployed 25.

"All of the resources at our disposal have been made available to try to get the roads clear and power restored," said Patrick, adding that it would be "ambitious" to think power would be restored by Monday to the 350,000 homes and businesses in his state left in the dark.

"This is not going to be a couple of hours," Patrick said. "It's likely to be several days."

In Methuen, Mass., 40-year-old Itziar Richardson of North Andover was staying at a Red Cross shelter at the Comprehensive Grammar School with her husband and their 2-month-old son.

"I'm not having a good day," she said. "It's definitely not the best situation with the baby, but you have to make the best of it."

Crews from Canada and South Carolina were headed to Maine, where Gov. John Baldacci declared a limited emergency allowing utility crews to work longer hours. Utilities there chipped away at a huge backlog of power outages, reducing the total of more than 225,000 customers to about 210,000, mostly in southern and coastal areas.

In eastern New York, particularly around Albany, the state capital, outages at National Grid and other utilities brought the statewide total to more than 255,000.

"Trees were down on all the roads," said Miguel Figueroa, 28, as he waited for coffee at a Starbucks in Colonie, N.Y. "... I couldn't even get on the Thruway today."

In Vermont, four shelters were set up in southern Vermont for the more than 20,000 customers who were without power Friday night. It could be days before some homes and businesses get their lights back on, officials said.

Route 9 between Brattleboro and Bennington, Vt., a major road, was closed because of downed trees.

The ice storm extended to Pennsylvania, where about 4,700 customers, most of them in the Poconos, lost power, and Connecticut, where some 17,000 customers were without electricity at the height of the storm. Those states mostly got heavy rain or rain changing to snow.

"This is pathetic," said Bob Cott of Portland, Maine, who lost power. "I'm already sick of winter and we have nine days to go before it officially begins."


Ha ha ha...he's right!
What a winter already and it hasn't "officially" started yet!!
LOL

Quoting vortfix:
"This is pathetic," said Bob Cott of Portland, Maine, who lost power. "I'm already sick of winter and we have nine days to go before it officially begins."


Ha ha ha...he's right!
What a winter already and it hasn't "officially" started yet!!
LOL



Ay, will only get worse. Wonder when our windstorms start crawling in...
Morning
Wilmington is clear
33, forecast to go to 49
Light NW wind
NO ICE
Quoting RobDaHood:
The full moon Friday night will be the biggest one of the year as Earth's natural satellite reaches its closest point to our planet.

my blog #485 for more info
The moonrise here last night was gorgeous - and the mood did look really big. Unfortunately I didn't have my camera with me when I ran out to the store.

Morning Baha - the moon was so bright here it lit up the yard.

How's the temp over your way? cooler than I expected this morning - a chilly 56.

My daughter lives in Maine, York county, where the brunt of the ice storm went through. No power, blocked roads, and no generators to be found.

Asked her how a kid who who knows how to prepare for hurricanes got caught so unaware!

Cyclonic Binary fission lol
I think Dolphins twin might be a problem for him
Morning everybody, btw. It's pretty cold out so far today, so I'll prolly be staying inside. . . lol

Quoting zoomiami:
Morning Baha - the moon was so bright here it lit up the yard.

How's the temp over your way? cooler than I expected this morning - a chilly 56.

My daughter lives in Maine, York county, where the brunt of the ice storm went through. No power, blocked roads, and no generators to be found.

Asked her how a kid who who knows how to prepare for hurricanes got caught so unaware!
Morning zoo! It's around 68 out right now. Pretty darn cold, where I live! LOL
Glad to hear your daughter's all right, even if she didn't expect a winter storm to be as bad as a tropical one. .. lol
Morning all-

some days are diamond,
some days are stone.

Its a diamond one here this morning.
Hope everyone is having a good one too.
Fortunately they have two types of heat - one is oil that has an electric heat pump, but the other is a propane fire place, no electric needed. Their house is on the city water - last one of the line. Next house over is pump - so they have no water.
Hi Pottery - how are you? Haven't been around much lately - just lurking.

Just looking at the long range models for Florida, and it looks like we will remain warm (Like now) until at least past Christmas. This is kind of a relief for me considering I have been freezing by butt off here for quiet awhile. But no Christmas frost :(
Doing great here Zoo.
Thinking of heading to the beach today, to soak some sore muscles and my confused brain.
Had a couple of frantic days around here. Work stuff.
Looking forward to some downtime......
Huh !!
I have just been Reliably Informed, that I am to attend a Wedding Festival, this evening.
There goes my beach plan......
Oh well, a night of dancing and prancing, with copious amounts of food and drink, pretty women, laughter and scandal. It all sounds just fine to me.....
Ola from Mexico...
who turned off the damn sun, and when is it coming back??
116. IKE
From this mornings San Juan,PR discussion...

Could still see a significant low level system form
across the west central Atlantic on Tuesday or Wednesday...which
will eventually be steered southward and towards the local
islands...but models have been trending further westward with
their solutions over the last several runs...so some uncertainty
remains.
Sounds like a great plan Pottery - I even like the beach when its cool outside.

Sorry about the wedding - best laid plans of men and mice....

Hey Orca - thought you were on vacation!
Hmmm mexican keyboards.. strange symbols... and no sun..

I sort of miss being home.. but not that much :)
Quoting zoomiami:
Sounds like a great plan Pottery - I even like the beach when its cool outside.

Sorry about the wedding - best laid plans of men and mice....

Hey Orca - thought you were on vacation!


I am.. I thought I would pop in for a couple minutes, and try and find out if the sun is coming back soon. last two nights have been cold enough to require jackets down here... no fun sitting on a beach... praying for a hot rum.
120. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmm mexican keyboards.. strange symbols... and no sun..

I sort of miss being home.. but not that much :)


........ has anyone asked you for any money yet or to buy something from them(I remember Acapulco).
Hey Orca!

sun turned down to better see the moon?

Sun pretty bright here this am actually...a little cool still
Quoting IKE:


Jump off of that boat and head home....NOW!

If you're on land, has anyone asked you for any money yet or to buy something from them(I remember Acapulco).


We are actually at an all inclusive resort. Called the Viva Wyndham Maya, close to Playa del Carman.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Hey Orca!

sun turned down to better see the moon?

Sun pretty bright here this am actually...a little cool still


The weather here has basically been cloudy with sunny breaks since we got here tuesday, but the last two nights have been stupid cold... tempted to light beach fires, but apparently they frown on that down here :)
124. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


We are actually at an all inclusive resort. Called the Viva Wyndham Maya, close to Playa del Carman.


You're safe then...lol.

Have fun...
Hurry Home!

Forecast for GREATER VICTORIA
Updated: 5:00 am PST on December 13, 2008
Snowfall warning in effect

Today
Cloudy with sunny periods. Wind northwest 30 km/h (19 mph) becoming northeast 40 km/h (25 mph) to 60 km/h (37 mph) this morning. Temperature steady near 3C(37F).

Tonight
Periods of snow. Local amount 5 to 10 cm(2.0 to 3.9 in). Wind northeast 40 km/h (25 mph) to 60 km/h (37 mph). Low -2C(28F).

Sunday
A few flurries ending late in the morning then cloudy with sunny periods. Wind northeast 40 km/h (25 mph) to 60 km/h (37 mph). High -1C(30F).

Monday
Sunny. Low -7C(19F). High -2C(28F).

Too much multi tasking - washing floors, typing, giving kid directions & phone numbers...

Sorry to hear about the chill - its chilly here, but I'm loving it - (chilly for us)
Quoting MissNadia:
Hurry Home!

Forecast for GREATER VICTORIA
Updated: 5:00 am PST on December 13, 2008
Snowfall warning in effect

Today
Cloudy with sunny periods. Wind northwest 30 km/h (19 mph) becoming northeast 40 km/h (25 mph) to 60 km/h (37 mph) this morning. Temperature steady near 3C(37F).

Tonight
Periods of snow. Local amount 5 to 10 cm(2.0 to 3.9 in). Wind northeast 40 km/h (25 mph) to 60 km/h (37 mph). Low -2C(28F).

Sunday
A few flurries ending late in the morning then cloudy with sunny periods. Wind northeast 40 km/h (25 mph) to 60 km/h (37 mph). High -1C(30F).

Monday
Sunny. Low -7C(19F). High -2C(28F).



I was just reading that....
GW my butt.. I am in Mexico freezing...
It snowed in LA, and Texas... and its snowing in Victoria... yup.. GW is upon us.
Quoting Orcasystems:


The weather here has basically been cloudy with sunny breaks since we got here tuesday, but the last two nights have been stupid cold... tempted to light beach fires, but apparently they frown on that down here :)


Some folks just like to spoil all the fun...I remember beach fires...Long ago

As for the cold...rumour has it that some Canadian guy went on vacation and left the backdoor open...so all the cold is getting out and moving south.
Nothing better than a fire on the beach - we do a lot of small fires here - have one of those fire burning pits.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Some folks just like to spoil all the fun...I remember beach fires...Long ago

As for the cold...rumour has it that some Canadian guy went on vacation and left the backdoor open...so all the cold is getting out and moving south.


ah - so that's what happened. That makes Orca responsible for my kid with no electric - think you should go home Orca, and make sure you close the doors on your way back.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Some folks just like to spoil all the fun...I remember beach fires...Long ago

As for the cold...rumour has it that some Canadian guy went on vacation and left the backdoor open...so all the cold is getting out and moving south.


Apparently they did it to Victoria also.. snow fall warning... now I am happy.. they are getting snow.. and I am not there :)

I have 4 minutes left...so this will be my last remark..I hope eveyone is having fun and staying safe :)

Chat to you all later.


Quoting zoomiami:
Nothing better than a fire on the beach - we do a lot of small fires here - have one of those fire burning pits.


Well, there are some things on the beach that I like better than fire...but I'm a guy, I can't help that.
Quoting zoomiami:


ah - so that's what happened. That makes Orca responsible for my kid with no electric - think you should go home Orca, and make sure you close the doors on your way back.


I am innocent.. as per normal :)
Have fun Orca! See ya soon.
Have fun Orca - see you when you get back
Rob - bet your puppies love this weather. Mine just want to stay out forever.
Quoting zoomiami:
Rob - bet your puppies love this weather. Mine just want to stay out forever.


Yeah they do! Cat can't make up her mind...wants out, goes bonkers for about 10 minutes, then wants some place warm again. An hour later repeat the cycle.
Yep - same here. We have an English bulldog that can't go out in the hot weather (not to play anyway). She loves this, we can let her out for as long as she wants.

Must have been crazy to agree to a heat sensitive dog in South Florida.
When it gets really hot here, they swim a lot. They'll stay in the lake as long as I'll let them...easy to give them a bath in the summer too...bathed Brok with the hose last week and he looked at me like I was trying to kill him.
LOL -- I can just imagine. We have the bulldog, and a boxer. The boxer is almost 13, but when she was younger we couldn't keep her out of the water. Now she won't get near the swimming pool. Still loves the bath tub though, warm soapy water!



Gotta run...Much to do today

Have a nice one!


will post more moon photo links to my and Emmy's blogs later today.
142. IKE
Winters in Miami are real tough to take....

Tuesday Night through Friday
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs around 80.


Watch out for Rene....lol.....
Now Ike - be nice. What is Rene by the way?
Quoting zoomiami:
Now Ike - be nice. What is Rene by the way?


A philosopher.
145. IKE
I'm not sure how you pronounce it...it's a male name....centered near 23N and 49W.
Ok - so I was so caught up in the snow pics I missed Rene.

Would be my luck - rain all over my Christmas decorations. They've already been blown down this week.
Quoting IKE:
I'm not sure how you pronounce it...it's a male name....centered near 23N and 49W.


René would be easier to work off. Sounds like an 'a' at the end.
Is that the same system that Dr. Masters is talking about in his blog?
149. IKE
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Is that the same system that Dr. Masters is talking about in his blog?


Yeah....I think it's gonna happen...a mid-December system. Not really shocking...surprising though...
150. HTV
Nice Vacation spot?Link

Maybe not
151. IKE
12Z NAM has it...Link
152. IKE
Quoting HTV:
Nice Vacation spot?Link

Maybe not


That's cold...my skin likes humidity better...
Quoting IKE:
Winters in Miami are real tough to take....

Tuesday Night through Friday
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs around 80.


Watch out for Rene....lol.....
at the present moment a system is to develope track w then sw over sw bahamas across se tip of cuba and disapate once pass cuba or during passage over cuba
Quote is not working well today.

Thanks Keeper - lets hope it stays south - don't really want any weather problems next two weeks.

How is it in your part of the world?
cold zoo but warm up coming for a brief return with rain tomorrow and monday -11 c this morn plus 8 c on monday iam ready for xmas other than that just chilling

area of interest
est pos 23.8n/48.7w
hopefully the front will be strong to push it ne however cod gfs shows it trackin nw w then sw down over southern bahamas se tip of cuba
Real warm front you have coming there. lol

Off to work on the to-do list, check back later


Something sub-tropical popping up next week seems somewhat possible as the deep trough currently present over the eastern seaboard shifts eastward.UKMET,CMC and the NAM have been hinting at this for a while now so we'll see what happens.

View of 12z NAM at 84hrs...



Hope everyone is having a great holiday season thus far. Adrian
Quoting IKE:
From this mornings San Juan,PR discussion...

Could still see a significant low level system form
across the west central Atlantic on Tuesday or Wednesday...which
will eventually be steered southward and towards the local
islands...but models have been trending further westward with
their solutions over the last several runs...so some uncertainty
remains.


Good morning everyone from Barbados- been watching that front move towards us- am a bit confused by the weather reports. I had assumed the northern area around 28 was what would link with the cold front coming from the SEUS storms and create Rene- but - from what the above quote from PR is saying we may be in for trrouble too?IKE, Pottery- what do you think???
It's cloudy here, began last night only allowed us a few hours in the early night to see the brilliant big fat moon, lovely though- anyway- what's up for us in the Southern Caribbean???
160. IKE
12Z GFS at 78 hours....

161. IKE
Quoting Bjanmama:


Good morning everyone from Barbados- been watching that front move towards us- am a bit confused by the weather reports. I had assumed the northern area around 28 was what would link with the cold front coming from the SEUS storms and create Rene- but - from what the above quote from PR is saying we may be in for trrouble too?IKE, Pottery- what do you think???
It's cloudy here, began last night only allowed us a few hours in the early night to see the brilliant big fat moon, lovely though- anyway- what's up for us in the Southern Caribbean???


Looks to go well north of Barbados.
Whatever forms will probably degenerate into an open trough before reaching the Greater Antilles as the upper level trough sharpens with an increase in wind shear.
163. IKE
GFS 12Z at 120 hours....

I thought this was an interesting perspective on the New Orleans snowfall:

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
102 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2008

...THE NEW ORLEANS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 11 2008...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1946 TO 2008

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 45 1159 PM 82 1949 65 -20 81
MINIMUM 33 948 AM 26 1995 46 -13 67
AVERAGE 39 56 -17 74

Notice the low and the record low - they were still a full 7 degrees above the record, so in terms of cold it wasn't very unusual (they didn't even reach freezing); it is just that they usually don't get precipitation and hence snowfall when it gets that cold, since the typical fronts that bring cold air down are dry; in this case, they had an unusually strong upper-level low bring cold air down as the core passed over (places further north actually had only rain because they were too warm, except under the ULL, hence this unusual snowfall map).
Quoting IKE:


Looks to go well north of Barbados.


Thanks Ike for responding, a relief, the 12Z makes it pretty clear- wouldn't mind snow, but a late storm is not what is needed as we prepare for christmas!
Keeper of the Gate's LSU sat photo reminds me of the fires of hell- kinda scary, not a very cheery christmas card! But dramatic!
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N54W 23N50W TO 18N47W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO 20N50W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 41W-53W E OF
THE TROUGH. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 33W-40W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 14N54W TO 9N56W WITH
CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING THE FORMATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN SEABOARD MOVES
EWD.

Quoting Drakoen:
Whatever forms will probably degenerate into an open trough before reaching the Greater Antilles as the upper level trough sharpens with an increase in wind shear.


Wind shear values are too high for sub-tropical cyclogenesis at the moment. However, Wind shear levels are expected to decrease to marginally favorable beyond 100 hrs from now as a tilted anticyclone sets over the hybrid system. Even if this system manage to become subtropical, it shouldn't be anything significant.
168. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N54W 23N50W TO 18N47W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO 20N50W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 41W-53W E OF
THE TROUGH. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 33W-40W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 14N54W TO 9N56W WITH
CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING THE FORMATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN SEABOARD MOVES
EWD.



LOL...Rene
169. IKE
It's 30 knots over the area....

Quoting Drakoen:
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N54W 23N50W TO 18N47W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO 20N50W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 41W-53W E OF
THE TROUGH. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 33W-40W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 14N54W TO 9N56W WITH
CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING THE FORMATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN SEABOARD MOVES
EWD.


drakonen: with all these troughs jostling one another out here, it's getting kinda crowded and the humidity is rising and our 'Christmas breeze" has slowed down to about 12. Have to go above 20/59 to get to 14 and much higher for any greater strength. So we will get wet- but thank god nothing like Devon and somerset Cotillion- ove england, but not your weather- Virgin is still daily packing them in here fro across the pond for christmas- tho with the economy, down considerably from last year- but still large numbers.
CMC model shows some subtropical characteristics for this system. The CMC shows a warm core, and a broad vorticity field
Quoting IKE:
It's 30 knots over the area....



The GFS model is expecting wind shear values to decrease about 15 knots 120 hrs from now


look at the wind shear module
Wow, i come here to post about the ice storm bearing down on St. louis and there's an area of interest in the Atlantic! just shows how weird the 2008 weather season is.
175. IKE
12Z CMC...Link
Bjanmama ~ The models have inconsistantly shown areas of higher vorticy, coming your way, at the 850mb level associated with the wave that is expected to play a part in a disterbance. These areas of storms that may effect you would be part of a tropical wave but not expected to be the end that plays with the front & possibly becomes Rene.
Quoting futuremet:


Wind shear values are too high for sub-tropical cyclogenesis at the moment. However, Wind shear levels are expected to decrease to marginally favorable beyond 100 hrs from now as a tilted anticyclone sets over the hybrid system. Even if this system manage to become subtropical, it shouldn't be anything significant.


The flow aloft look more upper level cyclonic flow which the system will set itself under or just to the east of. Whatever forms will have some mid to upper level reflection.
0z long-range CMC 12/13 216 hours...what's that in the Caribbean?

I just looked at the shear forecast, and conditions are only marignally favorable for subtropical development over the next week or so. And only a limited area is forecast to have the aforementioned marginally favorable upper-level winds. Whatever forms out there will certainly have a hard time sustaining itself.
180. IKE
12Z ECMWF has it dying out as it goes toward Haiti....Link
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF has it dying out as it goes toward Haiti....Link


Like the rest of the models. Even if it were to survive a 500mb ridge will center itself over the Gulf of Mexico for next week, preventing any storm from coming towards the CONUS for the east.
Quoting Drakoen:


Like the rest of the models. Even if it were to survive a 500mb ridge will center itself over the Gulf of Mexico for next week, preventing any storm from coming towards the CONUS for the east.


I do not even think this system is a threat, once it nears Haiti, excessive interaction with land and strong vertical wind shear should stifle development.
so we MAY have one more something...

Quoting HurrikanEB:
so we MAY have one more something...



yes we may....

I give it 33%
is Rene pronounced Ren-A or Ree-nee
Dolphin looks terrible it just sort of died
Quoting HurrikanEB:
is Rene pronounced Ren-A or Ree-nee


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Atlantic Names – Pronunciation Guide - 2008

Rene re-NAY
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
6:00 AM JST December 14 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 6:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (990 hPa) located near 13.9N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.1N 130.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
45 HRS: 14.3N 129.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
69 HRS: 15.3N 128.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Atlantic Names – Pronunciation Guide - 2008

Rene re-NAY


i think its odd that for 2011 they replaced katrina with Katia and
rita with rina
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

The Tropical Storm east of Bicol region has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "ULYSSES".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 (1500z)
==============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ulysses (DOLPHIN) located at 13.9°N, 134.4°E or 1,120 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 km/h (45 knots) with gustiness up to 100 km/h (55 knots).

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" is still too far to affect any part of the country.
21 depressions has entered/formed into/in the PAR this year.. almost completing the the list.

names remaining on the list

Vicky
Warren
Yoyong
Zosimo
Hmmm. . . guess they have an easier time coming up with Z names than we do . . .
yup they have all the alphabet letters except for "X"
Hey, what'dja do to ur avatar, HGW?
Hurricane xylophone...
Good Evening to evereyone!

I just see the models and have to came to this blog, and as I expected you guys are on an tropical forescast mode once again!

Do I have to watch this from Puerto Rico or our holydays are safe?

We have Olga last year in mid December.


quoting jeffmasters blog...
"If it is cold enough to snow, we may actually see increased snow in many locations. Global warming puts more moisture in the atmosphere, due to fact that higher global temperatures evaporate more moisture off of the oceans. I expect that coming decades will bring many record snowfalls, due to the increased moisture available in the atmosphere."

Question...If the water evaporates of the ocean, doesn't that mean the ocean temperature is reduced due to the evaporation?

Question...If heat rises, doesn't that evaporated water rise because of the heat it contains?

Question...When that evaporated water reaches the upper reaches of the atmosphere doesn't it lose its heat to the much colder conditions found there?

Question...When that evaporated water cools sufficiently, doesn't it then sometimes fall as rain and or snow?

Question...That water/snow cools the atmosphere and the surface of the earth as well doesn't it?

Question...Where does the heat go that is lost by the evaporated water at the upper reaches of the atmosphere?

Question...Is it possible that increased snow could as easily be the forerunner of a cooling period just as well?


197. calusakat 11:57 PM GMT on December 13, 2008

i dont know the answers but i would say that those are interesting questions
December tropical systems often have weird tracks because they encounter different steering winds than we are used to seeing in late summer:

.... moved.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
December tropical systems often have weird tracks because they encounter different steering winds than we are used to seeing in late summer:



This track is akin to the system the models are developing
Quoting Skyepony:
Bjanmama ~ The models have inconsistantly shown areas of higher vorticy, coming your way, at the 850mb level associated with the wave that is expected to play a part in a disterbance. These areas of storms that may effect you would be part of a tropical wave but not expected to be the end that plays with the front & possibly becomes Rene.


Thank you Skypony! that was my thinking as well, but given the massiveness of the systems, unless we get some strong tradewinds, it looks as though we are in for some heavy rain. the good news is looking toward Africa, this may finally be the "last hurrah" but we like dry 75-80degrees, perfect blue skies and "puffy" children's clouds with strong tradwwinds for out christmases..can't blame us really, can you? after six-seven months of heavy himidity and constantly looking over the shoulder at the Cape Verdes for whatever depressions, TS or hurricanes decides to come our way. Hope everyone on the blog has the weather they want for christmas- and isn't it a blessing to see the progress surfMom's Gabriel has made!
P.S. Pottery know you are going to have a fantastic time tonight at the wedding- nothing like christmas, parang and weddings to keep the spirit moving in the Caribbean!
hows this for weather.... 28mm of rain on Friday and 17C..... Saturday was 34C and 65km/h winds with higher gusts. And today is nice, 24C and the occasional wind gust of 40km/h. talk about iradic weather patterns.
Quoting antonio28:
Good Evening to evereyone!

I just see the models and have to came to this blog, and as I expected you guys are on an tropical forescast mode once again!

Do I have to watch this from Puerto Rico or our holydays are safe?

We have Olga last year in mid December.




If it were to approach Puerto Rico, strong vertical shear in excess of well over 30 knots would tear it apart. Honestly, I feel that any land areas are safe with possible Rene.
Here are some pictures I just uploaded.



This was taken in mid-June, before all the excitement of the season really got started . . .

These others are from 1 October. I came out of the bank that evening and discovered this fantastic sunset after some earlier rain showers.

Image 2


Image 3


Image 4
Just looking at the GFS models and it looks like in about 48-54 hours time the UK will start to feel the effects of a strong artic low and in about 12-24 hours the USA will start to feel the effects of a strong polar blast moving down toward the GOM. Cheers AussieStorm
Hey Aussie,

How's the summer coming? Has BoM done any kind of seasonal forecast so far?
FYI everyone, my QUITEST YEAR CONTEST is still going on at my blog!

3 people are on it so far, and it is over on December 31st!
Baha - those are some great pictures.
Quoting zoomiami:
Baha - those are some great pictures.
Thanks. I've been meaning to post them for a while. . .
No posts in over an hour...
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
No posts in over an hour...


Because there isn't anything imminent in the tropics. THe potential Rene isn't going to be here for like another week.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
is Rene pronounced Ren-A or Ree-nee


Ra-Nay
Quoting HurrikanEB:


i think its odd that for 2011 they replaced katrina with Katia and
rita with rina


and stan with sean...woot 1 letter changes
Quoting hurristat:


and stan with sean...woot 1 letter changes


At least Sean isn't almost exactly reminiscent of Stan, like Rina and Katia are with Rita and Katrina.
Quoting KoritheMan:


At least Sean isn't almost exactly reminiscent of Stan, like Rina and Katia are with Rita and Katrina.


vocally, yes youre right. reading-wise theyre very similar
218. JRRP
Link
UKM
219. JRRP
Link
CMC
220. IKE
Low shear out in the Atlantic where Rene may form....

Good Morning
38F in ILM
Wind N at 7
Clear skies
Forecast is for Partly cloudy and 58
Not bad for Early December!
Portugal has also been hit by anormal November & December snowfalls. This weekend more snow fell, closing high mountain roads.
Ecotretas
Dr. Masters, i'm sure you will be posting many articles defending the global warming theory over the next few years.. as natural cycles disrupt the warming period. Interesting thought..
Link
Dolphin got it's act on in the past hour
Dolphin's quickly oranizing! Models predicting a possible storm forming in the Atlantic. Some crazy weather in store for S. Ontario with sharp rises and falls in temperature so we could see some ice this week.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Link
Dolphin got it's act on in the past hour


I bet Parcells has something to do with it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because there isn't anything imminent in the tropics. THe potential Rene isn't going to be here for like another week.


Maybe next year?
229. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:


Maybe next year?


Maybe by Wednesday.....

12Z GFS @ 78 hours....

Fantastic week ahead for south florida as a pretty significant ridge will keep the jet locked up north keeping any kind of shower activity/cold weather away from the state.

Give me 80's.
Quoting Cotillion:


I bet Parcells has something to do with it.


ROFLMAO
232. JRRP
Link
CMC
Link
UKM
Drakoen - wheres that photo from?



#1 tornado & weather links, all on one site!
www.tornadolinks.com

WWW.TORNADOLINKS.COM
West Pacific.
Quoting Drakoen:
West Pacific.


Looks a bit more like a Joey Porter at this rate.
It's getting quieter and quieter... :(
Ok we need an icebreaker
What is the only hurricane to make landfall in New Jersey
looks like future Rene starting to detach...
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok we need an icebreaker
What is the only hurricane to make landfall in New Jersey


Well as far as we know, there is an extremely high amount of hurricanes that have hit NJ... however, in recorded history, these three have.
The Storm of October 1804
1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane
Vagabond Hurricane
1903 hurricane hit New Jersey also
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1903 hurricane hit New Jersey also


That's the Vagabond Hurricane
Oh ok I didn't know that. Donna (1960) also hit New Jersey.
JRRP~ I don't think I've seen cmc & ukmet in more agreeance all season.
241 is right but I can't see huristat's posts so he could be right too.
and Donna's center actually passed East of NJ but brought hurricane force winds to the state
We are going to get rain for the next three days but it will warm up before then. It can rain and it can get cold( below 32F/0C ) but not at the same time.
Quoting hurricane23:


Maybe next year?
area near 20.4n/42.7w is the pinch off zone late tonight early tommorow is the early stages watch wait see
Some crazy weather in store for my location in S. Ontario: warming up to 7C tomorrow morning, followed by a rapid drop below freezing in the afternoon, then about 20 cm of snow later in the week, with the temperature warming up to 10C on Friday then dropping to -10C that night.
Global Warming???

Tried to embed this, but ran into some problems...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5841396592020661354
AS WAS ADVERTISED BY MUCH OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...A SFC LOW IS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N54W. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW CENTER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SW DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN W TO WSW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRES
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEVELOPING LOW AND
THE SFC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE
FORCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW.
Evening Everyone! Haven't been in for a while. Just wanted to stop by and wish everyone Happy Holidays!
Quoting Drakoen:
NEAR 28N54W. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW CENTER.


I believe this is the most recent Quikscat for above area
Link

and for the area just North of 30N
Link
Rene???
Hello Rene, soon.
Texas blue norther.
16F Amarillo, 70F Dallas right now.

Link
259. JRRP
sincerely I don´t think that we will see Rene
but... nobody knows
Atlantic Sub-tropicalcyclogenesis Analysis


-Potential Rene-


Cyclogenesis is currently occurring along a baroclinic zone in near 60w and 40n, which is association with a sheared upper level low near 50n. The trough of low pressure is flanked by vigorous anticyclones from both sides. The substantial pressure gradient is currently causing strong gale force winds around the vicinity of the trough. Subsequently about 36 hours from now, the anticyclone from the west is expected to bisect the trough of low of pressure as it moves eastward. The high pressure system will then set itself over the remnants of the trough, guiding it Southwestward, and warming the ambient air adiabatically; providing ideal conditions from sub-tropicalcyclogenesis. Due to the absence of the trough, vertical wind shear values are expected to decrease to slightly marginal levels for subtropical storm formation. However, this system is expected to interact with land as the high to its northwest steer it southwest toward Hispaniola and Puerto rico. The combination of wind shear and land interaction should weaken this system significantly, and it is highly unlikely that it will reinvigorate itself in the Caribbean.

FutureMet
TYPHOON Dolphin
Indeed, a late season surprise. Rene might be forming. Well I guess its back to the old ole wunderground Forecasting earlier than expected.

Damn, I think my kid brought home a really bad cold or something from school. Bad coughing, going to have to see local doctor. (Or go to Walgreens.)
Hello ,

Mever does all the snow reports get out because the reporting sustem for snow is older then dirt .
Lauderdale county ,franklin county in alabama both recieved 3 inches of snow .
Justbecause you don't see it on the so called snow data site or any otyher doesn't mean it didnt happen. have a nice day and enjo the weather .
dew
Bureau of Meteorology in Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK WESTERN AUSTRALIA 110E-125E
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Monday the 15th of December 2008
===========================================
A developing Tropical Low [1005 hPa] is situated north of the Kimberley in the Timor Sea. At 11am it was near latitude 10.0S 128.0E, and is reported almost stationary. The low is expected to move towards the west or southwest during the next few days and will be closely monitored.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=====================================
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: High

RSMC: India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 15 2008
=========================================

Yesterday's Low Pressure Area over southeast and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over southwest Arabian Sea.

Satellite imagery indicate broken to intense convection over the area between 6.0N and 11.5E and between 59.0E and 64.0E. In association with the above the vortex centered near 9.5N 62.0E has the dvorak intensity of T1.0 with 3 minute sustained winds of 20 knots.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
15:00 PM JST December 15 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY TWO TYPHOON EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 15:00 PM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Dolphin (980 hPa) located near 14.3N 130.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.0N 129.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.3N 128.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.6N 128.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
Looks like some fairly vigorous mid-level vorticity associated with the potential Rene.


ULYSSES (Dolphin 0822) beginning to appear on Philippines satellite radar
Thank You to those who posted the pictures of the snow in LA/TX
I won't be that surprised if Rene forms all the crazy things that happened in 08 a post-season storm wouldn't be a shocker.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


ULYSSES (Dolphin 0822) beginning to appear on Philippines satellite radar

It looks like Dolphin is trying to form an eye
Coastal N.C. is 62 and cloudy
Calm Winds
Forecast is for 70 and partly cloudy skies!!!!!
A SFC TROUGH IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED JUST E
OF THE FRONT ALONG 52W N OF 22N. IR IMAGES REVEAL AN INCREASED
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 46W-56W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY EXISTS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 42W-45W IN AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT ZONE. THIS SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY GAIN VORTICITY FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
TUE...ACCORDING TO MANY OF THE NWP MODELS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A TRACK TOWARD THE SW STEERED BY THE E
PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

From discussion
274. IKE
It does look like Rene is on the way...SSD satellite is down again....good thing Colorado state/RAMSDIS is working.
275. IKE
Just about every model intensifies pre-Rene and then loops it toward Haiti/DR, weakening it along the way.

I'm surprised it's not an invest already and think it may be sometime today.
Quoting IKE:
Just about every model intensifies pre-Rene and then loops it toward Haiti/DR, weakening it along the way.

I'm surprised it's not an invest already and think it may be sometime today.


Let's hope it doesn't form at all, or that weakening trend picks up quick if it does.

R storms have a tendency to be vicious.
And Haiti doesn't need anything right now...

(Extract from Ike's wiki article..)

"The outer bands of Ike caused additional flooding in Haiti, which was already devastated by Hanna and also hit hard by Fay and Gustav. The last bridge still standing into the city of Gonaïves was washed away, slowing relief in the community considerably and creating a deeper humanitarian and food crisis in the hard-hit region. 74 deaths were reported in Haiti from Ike,[66] of which most were in the coastal community of Cabaret which was swept away by floodwaters and mudslides.[67] Haitian Prime Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis called for help at the end of the week, saying that four storms in three weeks have left over 550 dead and as many as one million homeless.[68] She also said that parts of Gonaïves were so severely damaged that the city may have to be rebuilt elsewhere.[68]"
278. IKE
Ravens got screwed on that call at the goal-line. What down would it have been then, if the call was the player wasn't across the line.

This is one reason I turn away from sports...team gets screwed.
Quoting IKE:
Ravens got screwed on that call at the goal-line. What down would it have been then, if the call was the player wasn't across the line.

This is one reason I turn away from sports...team gets screwed.


Can't recall... but yeah, we got screwed... and not for the first time this season, either. We got screwed over by the officials in the Titans game as well.

But, we should have stopped them earlier, and we would've won. So, can't put too much on the officials really.

Wouldn't surprise me if we collapse to 9-7 now. Still, an improvement on last year.
Quoting IKE:
Ravens got screwed on that call at the goal-line. What down would it have been then, if the call was the player wasn't across the line.

This is one reason I turn away from sports...team gets screwed.

Ike, it ain't sports It's a business!!!!
Collage stuff is good... all those kids play their hearts out
It was a third down, naturally. They would've had to kick it, and gone into OT.

2nd time this season of having a ridiculous call on a 3rd down. San Diego and us really have several reasons to be annoyed at incompetent officials... they even have video for crying out loud.

Tirade over. :D
282. IKE
Quoting MissNadia:

Ike, it ain't sports It's a business!!!!
Collage stuff is good... all those kids play their hearts out


Except there's no playoff in NCAA division 1A football....same thing every year....why did team X get screwed.

I like sports...just don't like it when teams get the shaft.
283. IKE
Not looking bad...plenty of LLC.....

TY 0822 (Dolphin)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 December 2008

Dolphin is a typhoon (10-minute sustained) now.
Barely 65 kt (74.8 mph).
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