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Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S.

By: Christopher C. Burt 10:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2011

The most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the Northeast U.S. has finally come to an end this Sunday afternoon. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states. In fact, the snowfall, in most cases, has exceeded that of even the great October snow of 1804. Trees that had not yet lost their leaves suffered tremendous damage from the wet, heavy snow, and snapped branches and falling trees brought down numerous power lines, leaving at least 2.5 million people without electricity.


Figure 1. Heavy snow in Coopersburg, PA on October 29 brought down trees and blocked roads. Image credit: wunderphotographer boyrr.

The records are broken are simply unbelievable. New York City's Central Park location, with a period of record dating back to 1869, received an official 2.9" of snowfall, breaking the previous record of 0.8" set in 1925. The highest total in New York City itself was 6.0" at Fieldston in the Bronx. But that is a simply an afterthought compared to the 19.0" reported just 45 miles northwest of Manhattan at West Milford. New Jersey. Newark, New Jersey reported 5.2", by far their greatest October snowfall on record. And even that total pales in comparison to the astonishing figures measured in New Hampshire and Massachusetts where more than 30" has been reported. Perhaps most amazing of all is the 22.5" that fell at Concord, New Hampshire between 3pm Saturday and 7am Sunday. This the second greatest 24-hour total ever record on any date or month in Concord history. Virtually every site north of Maryland to Maine, with the exception of coastal areas, recorded their greatest October snowfall on record. True blizzard conditions were averted since the strongest winds were confined to coastal areas where the precipitation fell almost exclusively as rain. A wind gust of 69 mph was recorded at Nantucket, Massachusetts (where sustained winds of 53 mph also occurred) and Barnstable at 4am Sunday. The top wind gust on Long Island, New York was 58 mph at Sands Point.


Figure 2. Snow depth as of 2 am EDT Sunday October 29, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.

The highest snow totals by state, from the latest NOAA storm summary and NWS public information statements:

Massachusetts: 32" at Peru
New Hampshire: 31.4" at Jaffrey
Maine: 20.0" at Acton
New Jersey: 19.0" at West Milford
Connecticut: 18.6" at Bakersville
New York: 17.9" at Millbrook
Pennsylvania: 16.0" at Huffs Church, Hazleton, and Springtown
Vermont: 16.0" at West Halifax
West Virginia: 14.0" at Mount Storm
Maryland: 11.5" at Sabillasville
Rhode Island: 6.6" at West Glocester

New England's Snow Hurricane of October 9, 1804
In a post I wrote last November on record early snowstorms, I penned this account of the Great October Snow Hurricane of 1804:

Perhaps the most extraordinary early-season snowstorm in New England history occurred on Oct. 9, 1804 when a hurricane roared ashore on Long Island, New York and then encountered an arctic air mass over southeastern Canada. The winds of the hurricane caused extensive structural damage from New York to Massachusetts (where the steeple of North Church in Boston was blown down). The rain turned to snow as far south as the Connecticut River Valley in Connecticut, where low elevation towns from here to the Canadian border received 4-6" of snow, and the higher terrain of Vermont up to three feet of accumulation. In Vermont, drifts buried fences and blocked roads. The Catskills of New York reported 12-18"; the Berkshires of Massachusetts received 24-30". Even coastal New Haven reported some snow (and 3.66" of rain). Reference: "Early American Winters: 1604-1820", by David M. Ludlum, American Meteorological Society, 1966, and "Early American Hurricanes, 1492-1870", by the same author.

Given what we have just seen it is probably safe to concluded that this weekend's event was of even greater magnitude than the 1804 storm although three weeks later in the season.

Wunderground weather historian, Christopher C. Burt

New York City's 3rd wettest year on record
The 2.01 inches of precipitation that fell in New York City in Saturday's storm brought the city's year-to-date total to 65.75", which is 24.10" above normal, and makes it the third wettest year in New York City history. With two months still left in the year, New York City has a chance to beat its all-time wettest year in history, the 80.56" that fell in 1980. Records date back to 1869.

Early season snowfalls and climate change
Naturally, the occurrence of a record early-season snow storm will lead to cries of "what happened to global warming?" Global warming theory does predict that we should see a decrease in early-season and late season snow as the climate warms, since it will not be cold enough to snow. However, the climate models also predict that we may see an increase in the intensity of the strongest winter storms, like the Nor'easter that dumped the record October snows over the Northeast on Saturday, and it is important to realize that snow is not the same thing as cold. Temperatures in the Northeast U.S. were quite cold on Saturday, but no observing station there broke a record for coldest temperature for the day on October 29, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Our climate is still cold enough in October to give us the occasional early-season record snowstorm.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters
Snowbound!!
Snowbound!!
no, not Christmas! just looks like it..the first series of shots of our record setting October Nor'easter..about 16 inches of heavy, wet snow causing all kinds of headaches, and dangerous situations here in the Western foothills of Maine into NH..I went out at first light to capture some of the scenes here at the 'farm'..beautiful but waay too early for this much snow..especially since we didn't have a chance to winterize the plants/trees/shrubs or cleanup the Autumn leaves (many of which are STILL ON THE TREES)
Very Confused
Very Confused
This shows how very confused mother nature is right now. One half of this photo is fall and they other half is winter. Crazy isn't it?
Millbrook, New York USA
Millbrook, New York USA
Oct.30, 2011
Big Snow
Big Snow
SnowFire
SnowFire
13 in. of snow when I woke up Sun! But this was taken 2 days prior.
October Beech..
October Beech..
looking amazing in the forest with the heavy snow coating..ALMOST makes this freak snowstorm a welcome visitor!
Farewell
Farewell

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ohs in the word is weatherhistorian?
We saw fat flakes in D.C.It was dangerous this morning since ice was on the ground.
Thanks, Chris and Dr. Masters, for the highly informative post. From the previous blog entry:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Are earlier intense snowstorms also caused by global warming?

It's impossible at this point to say with certainty that they are--but it would be equally foolish to proclaim with certainty that they aren't. Whatever the cause, one would have to agree that it's definitely an eye-opener to have an event in which numerous precipitation records are set that are hundreds or thousands of percent above previous records. No?
Time to hit the slopes, snowboarding season has begun.
Thanks Christopher and Jeff.

Historic and unprecedented for sure...
It would be lovely if we could share these blog entries on Facebook.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks, Dr. Masters, for the highly informative post. From the previous blog entry:

It's impossible at this point to say with certainty that they are--but it would be equally foolish to proclaim with certainty that they aren't. Whatever the cause, one would have to agree that it's definitely an eye-opener to have an event in which numerous precipitation records are set that are hundreds or thousands of percent above previous records. No?


I never claimed they weren't, that was more for anyone who would use the event for proof on either side of the argument. There is no secret that we differ in opinion but it will be interesting to see, if in 10 years we have a snow storm of equal magnitude on this date or earlier, would that still be considered weather? Or some sort of scientific proof global warming is not as gripping as previously thought?
Quoting megangiselle:
It would be lovely if we could share these blog entries on Facebook.

But you can; simply click the facebook button (the blue one with a white lowercase 'f') near the top of the entry just below the title...
Awww...I wanted candy!

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I never claimed they weren't, that was more for anyone who would use the event for proof on either side of the argument. There is no secret that we differ in opinion but it will be interesting to see, if in 10 years we have a snow storm of equal magnitude on this date or earlier, would that still be considered weather? Or some sort of scientific proof global warming is not as gripping as previously thought?
I don't think we will in my opinion.And I don't think it'll have anything to do with global warming.Like the Doc said and like others including myself have observed this is a very rare event.It was two centuries ago that the last one occured.Sooo yeah my two cents.
And!!!.I wish that every "significant" weather event that occurs nowadays will not automatically be linked to global warming.So I guess the tsunami in Japan was due to global warming?.Next a volcano will be linked to global warming.Lol.(I'm sorry I really am laughing out loud on that one.My husband is looking at me suspicious.)
Neat looking sat pic. Notice how linear the cold front is.
Current 2011 Atlantic hurricane season numbers:

* Tropical Depressions: 18
* Tropical Storms: 17
* Hurricanes: 6
* Major hurricanes: 3

1 Tazmanian "who in the world is weatherhistorian?"

Christopher C* Burt for the 364days when he isn't busy with the SantaClaus gig.
* Cringle
anyone here
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks, Chris and Dr. Masters, for the highly informative post. From the previous blog entry:

It's impossible at this point to say with certainty that they are--but it would be equally foolish to proclaim with certainty that they aren't. Whatever the cause, one would have to agree that it's definitely an eye-opener to have an event in which numerous precipitation records are set that are hundreds or thousands of percent above previous records. No?


It certainly opened my eyes- 8 inches of snow from Friday, Oct. 28- Saturday, Oct. 29 south of the mason-dixon line. I have lived in eastern WV since 1974 and have never seen this happen. I can't say with any authority what, if anything, caused this event, but it came as a surprise. I hope it's not a sign of things to come this winter...
This was set two weeks ago. But the storm added to it.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

...2011 NOW THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT...

0.11 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT WILLIAMSPORT YESTERDAY...INCREASING THE ANNUAL TOTAL TO 61.30 INCHES. THIS MAKES 2011 THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS ANNUAL PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 61.27 INCHES SET BACK IN 1972.

A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT WILLIAMSPORT SINCE 1895.

Quoting Tazmanian:
ohs in the word is weatherhistorian?


He's also been a member of wunderground since early 2006.
The storm has beefed up Williamport's rainfall this year to 63.18". They've had records since 1895. To break the annual precipitation record in mid October is amazing!
Quoting aspectre:
1 Tazmanian "who in the world is weatherhistorian?"

Christopher C* Burt for the 364days when he isn't busy with the SantaClaus gig.
* Cringle
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


He's also been a member of wunderground since early 2006.



ok
Snowfall map from the State College weather office. Figures are for central Pennsylvania.



Still heavy flooding in Key Biscayne and Miami.

Gooooorn! Looks like rainfall totals for south Florida will be impressive this month.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Gooooorn! Looks like rainfall totals for south Florida will be impressive this month.


Very high. But rather rain than snow like they had up North. Really is an unusual event.
Gorgeous weather here in ECFL. I hope everyone has a safe and happy Halloween.
...I'm bored. So here's Rina.
TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 818 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO 1 MILE EAST OF BLACK POINT... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CUTLER BAY... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

Quoting Chicklit:
Gorgeous weather here in ECFL. I hope everyone has a safe and happy Halloween.


Most miserable day I have seen in South Florida. Deep overcast all day and drizzle. Very windy all day. I think up North they called it blustery.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...I'm bored. So here's Rina.

She was probably briefly a Category 3 hurricane, which is depicted in that image well...Do you know what time that image was taken?
000
SXUS71 KLWX 300605
RERBWI

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
0126 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL WAS TIED AT BALTIMORE MD...

A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF TRACE INCH(ES) WAS TIED AT
BALTIMORE MD YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN
1952.

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD...

A RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES WAS SET AT
BALTIMORE MD YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 46 DEGREES SET
IN 1925.

$$


In Federal Hill we had snow mix with rain but no accumulations. Not even on car tops.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

She was probably briefly a Category 3 hurricane, which is depicted in that image well...Do you know what time that image was taken?


October 24 16:15Z. Convert it yourself. You may need the practice.
The rain has finally stopped here in Lake Worth. Nice cool breeze.
Quoting WoodyFL:


October 24 16:15Z. Convert it yourself. You may need the practice.


Be nice, he's a civvy ;)
Quoting WoodyFL:
TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 818 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO 1 MILE EAST OF BLACK POINT... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CUTLER BAY... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.



Not good.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The rain has finally stopped here in Lake Worth. Nice cool breeze.



Storms beginning to move in from the South.

Either the PWTR builds north or the storms die. Which will it be? Image is clickable and expandable. Right click and click on "view image".

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Either the PWTR builds north or the storms die. Which will it be? Image is clickable and expandable.



I've been clicking on the image and nothing is happening. The only thing exanding is my temper.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

She was probably briefly a Category 3 hurricane, which is depicted in that image well...Do you know what time that image was taken?

Oct 25 1344Z
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Oct 24, 1344Z.


He's right on his image! Here is the image on October 25 taken at 12:15PM. I took the wrong Wiki image.


Quoting WoodyFL:


Most miserable day I have seen in South Florida. Deep overcast all day and drizzle. Very windy all day. I think up North they called it blustery.

Sorry Woody.
We are spoiled here in Florida with so much sunshine and beautiful weather. Now if we could just get our government leaders to get behind solar energy in Florida we'd be on our way. Was reading something somewhere about how we need to become independent producers of our own energy; there is no reason why we should not be using solar power primarily here in the Sunshine State.
YAWN


i think hurricane season is overe



but then yet i am thinking we could see one may be two more TS
WeatherNerdPR, that's just post-hurricane-season-depression starting to set in. Not sure what the cure for that is yet though.
all so



many of are TS and hurricanes this year will likey be upgrade and some added


like 90L in may
Quoting WoodyFL:


I've been clicking on the image and nothing is happening. The only thing exanding is my temper.


Right click and click on "view image" :)
Quoting Chicklit:

Sorry Woody.
We are spoiled here in Florida with so much sunshine and beautiful weather. Now if we could just get our government leaders to get behind solar energy in Florida we'd be on our way. Was reading something somewhere about how we need to become independent producers of our own energy; there is no reason why we should not be using solar power primarily here in the Sunshine State.


Most new developments are forbidden to have solar panels at all.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Either the PWTR builds north or the storms die. Which will it be? Image is clickable and expandable.


Its-not-expanding-or-clickable!
Anybody else having trouble posting? My comments won't appear even after I refresh. I have to close and come back on.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Most new developments are forbidden to have solar panels at all.

That's BIZARE !
Quoting WoodyFL:
Anybody else having trouble posting? My comments won't appear even after I refresh. I have to close and come back on.

Working fine for me...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Right click and click on "view image" :)


Nothing. Doesn't give me that option.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Working fine for me...

Nevermind.....
Quoting pottery:

That's BIZARE !


It is in the contract when you buy a home in certain Homeowner's Associations. Private homes of course can do it, it they are approved with a permit by the municipality.
Clicking that way works for me. Try the direct link.

Sorry click and view isn't working for you guys.
My comments are also taking several minutes to appear.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nevermind.....


You mean you are having trouble, too?
I posted this the other night, but I feel a re-post is needed because it is so silent tonight.

A good dose of this...

...would repair the blog's silence.

That's a composite image of Yasi (the most impressive storm this year, imho) at peak strength.
Keep an eye on 12.5N/79W, probably the only reason it doesn't have a circle is none of the "reliable " computer models are developing it JMO
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


He's also been a member of wunderground since early 2006.


Hi Baltimore Brian,

Chris Burt here. Hope this may encourage you (and other wunderground.com aficionados) to check out my weekly blog on wunderground.com

I've been posting every week since October 2010 and am one of the three of wunderground.com's professional bloggers (Jeff Masters and Ricky Rood being the other two). You can find me under 'Meteorology Blogs'.

I posted under Jeff today since I just wrote a blog about the flood in Bangkok yesterday and, as you probably know, once you post a new blog the previous one is relegated to the archives. BTW: Check my archive out. You might find something that interests you.

Best, Chris
Southwest Carib. blob heading inland.

Cyclone Monica




Upon making landfall on 24 April, Monica became the strongest known storm to impact the Northern Territory on record.[32] Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 250 km/h (155 mph 10-minute sustained) by the Bureau of Meteorology[1] and 285 km/h (180 mph 1-minute sustained) by the JTWC.[4] According to the JTWC, Monica had a minimum barometric pressure of 879 hPa (mbar), ranking Monica as the strongest storm recorded in the southern hemisphere alongside Cyclone Zoe of 2002.[4][44] Additionally, using the Dvorak technique, the peak intensity of the cyclone was estimated over 320 km/h (200 mph) along with a minimum pressure below 869 hPa (mbar). At its peak, Monica exceeded a T# of 8.0, the highest ranking on the Dvorak Scale. Although unofficial, this would make Monica the strongest known tropical cyclone in history, eclipsing Typhoon Tip of 1979
Upon making landfall on 24 April, Monica became the strongest known storm to impact the Northern Territory on record.[32] Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 250 km/h (155 mph 10-minute sustained) by the Bureau of Meteorology[1] and 285 km/h (180 mph 1-minute sustained) by the JTWC.[4] According to the JTWC, Monica had a minimum barometric pressure of 879 hPa (mbar), ranking Monica as the strongest storm recorded in the southern hemisphere alongside Cyclone Zoe of 2002.[4][44] Additionally, using the Dvorak technique, the peak intensity of the cyclone was estimated over 320 km/h (200 mph) along with a minimum pressure below 869 hPa (mbar). At its peak, Monica exceeded a T# of 8.0, the highest ranking on the Dvorak Scale. Although unofficial, this would make Monica the strongest known tropical cyclone in history, eclipsing Typhoon Tip of 1979
i hate when the blog dos this
62. Taz, remove that picture its causing WU to move real slow when I scroll past it..
Quoting weatherhistorian:


Hi Baltimore Brian,

Chris Burt here. Hope this may encourage you (and other wunderground.com aficionados) to check out my weekly blog on wunderground.com

I've been posting every week since October 2010 and am one of the three of wunderground.com's professional bloggers (Jeff Masters and Ricky Rood being the other two). You can find me under 'Meteorology Blogs'.

I posted under Jeff today since I just wrote a blog about the flood in Bangkok yesterday and, as you probably know, once you post a new blog the previous one is relegated to the archives. BTW: Check my archive out. You might find something that interests you.

Best, Chris

For what it's worth, I read your posts religiously, Chris. The amount of data you include in every one is extraordinary and mind-boggling, and a perfect fit with your amazingly informative book, Extreme Weather: a Guide and Record Book.
Chris~ great update. Interesting the storm in 1804 had a hurricane involved, given Rina's remnants helped create this mess. How was the the winter of 1804-05 overall?

I've heard from friends in VT & Mass. They are expecting 4 days & 2 weeks with no power. Both noted overall people weren't prepared for this one.
Wow thanks Dr. Burt! My blogs are about weather history but of a different sort :) I've been reading your blogs since I joined. Your blogs are always a pleasure and informative!
Cyclone Monica at peak intensity:







I don't recall what the snow totals were, but in the first week of October in 1987 upstate NY - Albay and surrounding areas had a heavy snowfall. Many of us lived without power for days and even weeks in some areas. I think it was the 3rd or the 5th.
Crazy Snow Storm in the Northeast U.S. !!!!!

Who said Global Warming ?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Crazy Snow Storm in the Northeast U.S. !!!!!

Who said Global Warming ?


Who said Climate Change?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Who said Climate Change?


And who came up with Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?
Quoting oneshotww:
I don't recall what the snow totals were, but in the first week of October in 1987 upstate NY - Albay and surrounding areas had a heavy snowfall. Many of us lived without power for days and even weeks in some areas. I think it was the 3rd or the 5th.


My copy of Ludlum's Early American Winters II talks about a giant snow storm over much of the upstate of New York on September 28-30, 1836.
1836: Sept. 28: Hamilton NY 4", Bridgewater NY 3", Rochester NY 1"
Published on Oct 28, 2011 by itnnews

Bangkok evacuation as the Chao Phraya river threatens to burst its banks. Report by Anna Drury. Like us on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/itn and follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/itn


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Southwest Carib. blob heading inland.



Highly unlikely anything developes as most if not all of the tropical atlantic is now unfavorable for development. Think we are done.

Gonna need a boat tommorow morning for work with some of rainfall totals being reported around town.
80. 7544
cold fronts put a early end to this hurricane season enjoy early winter everyone
Quoting 7544:
cold fronts put a early end to this hurricane season enjoy early winter everyone


Hope we have at least a cool Christmas this year. It's just not the holiday season when the AC is running.
* Urban Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Broward County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Pembroke Pines... Miramar... Hollywood... Hallandale... Fort Lauderdale...

* until 1215 am EDT... heavy rain was developing in a west to east band from western Miramar and Pembroke Pines extending east to Hallandale Beach and Hollywood Beach. Rainfall rates will reach up to 3 inches per hour in the heaviest showers within this band... likely resulting in street flooding... given the already saturated grounds. This band of heavy rain will slowly drift northward towards the 595 corridor over the next hour.


(I 595 corridor is entrance to Alligator Alley/I-75)

We have already gotten 7 inches+ in some places so far. Not counting the two days it rained all day before that.
Quoting hurricane23:


Highly unlikely anything developes as most if not all of the tropical atlantic is now unfavorable for development. Think we are done.

I agree. Just 2 days ago I poured 10 gals. of my store up fuel for my emerg generator into one of our cars.
Quoting Tazmanian:
Upon making landfall on 24 April, Monica became the strongest known storm to impact the Northern Territory on record.[32] Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 250 km/h (155 mph 10-minute sustained) by the Bureau of Meteorology[1] and 285 km/h (180 mph 1-minute sustained) by the JTWC.[4] According to the JTWC, Monica had a minimum barometric pressure of 879 hPa (mbar), ranking Monica as the strongest storm recorded in the southern hemisphere alongside Cyclone Zoe of 2002.[4][44] Additionally, using the Dvorak technique, the peak intensity of the cyclone was estimated over 320 km/h (200 mph) along with a minimum pressure below 869 hPa (mbar). At its peak, Monica exceeded a T# of 8.0, the highest ranking on the Dvorak Scale. Although unofficial, this would make Monica the strongest known tropical cyclone in history, eclipsing Typhoon Tip of 1979



Stronger than Jose???
Quoting lovemamatus:



Stronger than Jose???



what in the word are you talking about?
For those of you disappointed in this year's Hurricane season….Just remember….

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For those of you disappointed in this year's Hurricane season%u2026.Just remember%u2026

The 2012 hurricane season starts in just 200 days and 20 hours...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For those of you disappointed in this year's Hurricane season….Just remember….

I love that song.
My mom's in Frederick County, Maryland, got 5 inches and has been without power for over a day now. She's staying at a hotel because the house is already down to the 40s. I can't imagine how much of a mess it is in the areas that measured snow in feet and are also in colder areas to the north.
2 years in a row all the storms curved out to sea except for Irene
Quoting hurricane23:


Highly unlikely anything developes as most if not all of the tropical atlantic is now unfavorable for development. Think we are done.

Gonna need a boat tommorow morning for work with some of rainfall totals being reported around town.


That's for sure -- enough water already
Quoting zoomiami:


That's for sure -- enough water already


And they said more rain all of tomorrow into Tuesday morning. I think we've had around 6-8 inches here. It's just nasty, we can't get a break from this.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Keep an eye on 12.5N/79W, probably the only reason it doesn't have a circle is none of the "reliable " computer models are developing it JMO



Have a look at water Vap loop. Not to conducive for dev. in that area. Big ULL. See Link.

Link

Quoting barotropic:



Have a look at water Vap loop. Not to conducive for dev. in that area. Big ULL. See Link.

Link




say that too some of are other storms this year lol dos Jose ring a bell too you?
96. 7544
Quoting SunriseSteeda:
* Urban Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Broward County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Pembroke Pines... Miramar... Hollywood... Hallandale... Fort Lauderdale...

* until 1215 am EDT... heavy rain was developing in a west to east band from western Miramar and Pembroke Pines extending east to Hallandale Beach and Hollywood Beach. Rainfall rates will reach up to 3 inches per hour in the heaviest showers within this band... likely resulting in street flooding... given the already saturated grounds. This band of heavy rain will slowly drift northward towards the 595 corridor over the next hour.


(I 595 corridor is entrance to Alligator Alley/I-75)

We have already gotten 7 inches in some places so far. Not counting the two days it rained all day before that.


just to note its way past that already its 2am and still coming down in buckets lol so fla has gotton more from this cold front then they did all hurricane season and the front is going to back up to the north latter today monday guess we should call this a tropical strom downpours cold front its kinda wied the way is acting dont u agree wow
Quoting 7544:


just to note its way past that already its 2am and still coming down in buckets lol so fla has gotton more from this cold front then they did all hurricane season and the front is going to back up to the north latter today monday guess we should call this a tropical strom downpours cold front its kinda wied the way is acting dont u agree wow


It looks like this current band of storms and rain is about to stop for a few hours. Some stuff down in the Keys will likely be visiting us around daybreak.

It also looks like we are in the tail of the nor'easter doing it's thing up north, if you check out the water vapor image for eastern U.S. Good thing we are getting a drenching for now, since the winter will likely be a dry one.

Arabian Sea



India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
8:30 AM IST October 31 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and lays centered over westcentral Arabian Sea near 15.0N 58.5E, about 1800 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 500 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast across Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs. However, the probability of further intensification is low as the depression lies over the colder sea and there is cold dry air entrainment over the region.

The depth of convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 12.5N to 20.0N and west of 63.0E and moderate to intense convection seen over rest Arabian Sea between 13.5N to 22.5N west of 66.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is around -85C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level shows slightly increase in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C to the western side of the system's center. The ocean heat content is less (<50 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical win shear on horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (between 10-20 knots) There is positive 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear to the east of system and no significant change on western side of the system center. the system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Al-Ghaidah of 1005 hPa. Pressure change in last 24 hours of -1.8 hPa. Silalah reported 1005 hPa.

As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


It looks like this current band of storms and rain is about to stop for a few hours. Some stuff down in the Keys will likely be visiting us around daybreak.

It also looks like we are in the tail of the nor'easter doing it's thing up north, if you check out the water vapor image for eastern U.S. Good thing we are getting a drenching for now, since the winter will likely be a dry one.

this floridian winter dry not so sure?
Good morning.

It looks like a wet few days ahead for the Eastern Caribbean.

AFTER WED
THINGS TURN MUCH MORE UNSETTLED AS LARGE MID UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR 18N AND 50W MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME POLAR TROF ACROSS THE ATLC BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO LIFT TOWARD THE AREA WHILE THE LARGE
SCALE TROF PROVIDES LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
A SIG RISK OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR SAINT CROIX AND THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING THU THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A
QUIET OCTOBER...THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF NOVEMBER LOOK TO BE RATHER
WET AND STORMY.

Rainy day here in C FL. I just don't get the forecast here lately as last Friday we had a 70% chance of rain which harly materialized here but today there was a 30% and we have been getting on and off moderate to heavy rains since 3am.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
809 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

809 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
915 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD AND EASTERN INDIAN RIVER
COUNTIES...



AT 808 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HIGH RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY ONE FROM NEAR
GIFFORD NORTH TO INDIAN RIVER SHORES AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF WABASSO
BEACH IN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
HAVE OCCURRED FROM BAREFOOT BAY TO FLORIDANA BEACH IN SOUTH BREVARD
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SOUTH BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 930
AM.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Rainy day here in C FL. I just don't get the forecast here lately as last Friday we had a 70% chance of rain which harly materialized here but today there was a 30% and we have been getting on and off moderate to heavy rains since 3am.
nws saturdays forecast for today was 80% retention ponds in cocoa are completely full
For those who are already passing the page from the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season and want to go ahead and know how many days are left to begin the 2012 one,here is the countdown.

Link


A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. NUMEROUSSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT. LOCALLYHEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERNAREAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON.
Link



Just in case there are still skeptics about the reality of Global Warming.
7 billion people experiencing some sort of weather will there be 8?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/30/richard-mu ller-global-warming_n_1066029.html?icid=maing-grid 10%7Chtmlws-main-bb%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%7C108718
The blog is slow today.
Quoting weathers4me:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/30/richard- mu ller-global-warming_n_1066029.html?icid=maing-grid 10%7Chtmlws-main-bb%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%7C108718


You will need to remove the space between the "u" and the "l", for the above link to work.

Use this link to the same page
It is pouring like crazy here on the NW side of Orlando. Monthly total now over 10". Vero Beach has now recorded 21.30" for october. Amazing!
Masters blogging about snow storms on a tropical weather blog. That means the 2011 season is done. See you all next June.
this blog is nuts



hurrican seasone is not done intell nov 30th but likey we are done
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
2 years in a row all the storms curved out to sea except for Irene


We had 3 U.S. landfalls

118. eddye
can someone tell me when is the next strong cold front for jacksonville
According to a tweet from NOAA, the folks there assessing whether the weekend snowstorm is yet another billion-dollar weather event for the United States. If so, it would be the 11th of the year, adding to the already-record ten the country has seen:

10) Hurricane Irene, August 20-29
9) Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer
8) Mississippi River flooding, Spring-Summer
7) Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Summer
6) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27
5) Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30
4) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16
3) Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11
2) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5
1) Groundhog Day Blizzard, Jan 29-Feb 3

...and, of course, there are still two months left.

(FWIW, TS Lee may make it onto the list once all the numbers are compiled.)
Quoting weathers4me:
The blog is slow today.

The tropical season is pretty much over. After 5 months of blogging most people are moving to other things.
One more storm....
107 stormpetrol [wind map]

Closed low northeast of CostaRica?
Ahhh the NHC. Gotta love those guys. The ridiculously insane blown out projection for the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season made them look even more inept.

It still does not alleviate them or remove culpability or any accountability from the royal, utter botched forecasts they put out for Rina. I don't care how difficult the system was. Heck, Paula and Matthew from last year were just as complex--if not more--and I don't remember the colossal lack of knowledge and intuition that went into those forecasts.

With the tax payers doling out millions of dollars annually to a government entity it wants entrust with their lives, it's time they use the technology and personnel at their disposal to get this right and quit making a mockery out of tropical weather forecasting. Period.
EPAC Tropical Depression Eight-E post season report is up.

Link
Tropical Storm Franklin report is also up. Peak intensity was 40kts.

Link
i think Lee was more like a STS then a TS
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Ahhh the NHC. Gotta love those guys. The ridiculously insane blown out projection for the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season made them look even more inept.

It still does not alleviate them or remove culpability or any accountability from the royal, utter botched forecasts they put out for Rina. I don't care how difficult the system was. Heck, Paula and Matthew from last year were just as complex--if not more--and I don't remember the colossal lack of knowledge and intuition that went into those forecasts.

With the tax payers doling out millions of dollars annually to a government entity it wants entrust with their lives, it's time they use the technology and personnel at their disposal to get this right and quit making a mockery out of tropical weather forecasting. Period.


What?
Quoting Bergeron:


What?


He's made that same post word for word a few times now. Forecasting weather is not easy. I guess he expects perfection.
Quoting Bergeron:


What?

He's just an emotionally-crippled troll with an obsessively large number of handles. Please just ignore him; he'll go away if he's not fed...
Short wave trough axis now just west of Big Bend area(as of 11:00 A.M.) expected to be positioned over Cape Hatteras at 5 P.M.

Closed low now just NNE of Nassau Bahama expected to quickly intensify and head NE off of the Carolina's by the Afternoon.

This in turn will pull a reinforcing front down the peninsula this afternoon and bring dry air evection through Central Florida by 5 P.M. and South Florida(and Miami) by 1 A.M.

The I-4 Corridor should see clear skies with night time lows in the mid-upper 50's by next morning!

In summery, all is not lost this Halloween for Orlando and Tampa!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Storm Franklin report is also up. Peak intensity was 40kts.

Link

Of note is that Franklin's ACE dropped from 0.4050 to 0.2825 due to the fact that it was a named storm for six hours longer than was thought preliminarily...
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Ahhh the NHC. Gotta love those guys. The ridiculously insane blown out projection for the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season made them look even more inept.

It still does not alleviate them or remove culpability or any accountability from the royal, utter botched forecasts they put out for Rina. I don't care how difficult the system was. Heck, Paula and Matthew from last year were just as complex--if not more--and I don't remember the colossal lack of knowledge and intuition that went into those forecasts.

With the tax payers doling out millions of dollars annually to a government entity it wants entrust with their lives, it's time they use the technology and personnel at their disposal to get this right and quit making a mockery out of tropical weather forecasting. Period.

Your still here, after your rant the other night i thought you'd leave before the door got slammed in your face.
Quoting yqt1001:
I posted this the other night, but I feel a re-post is needed because it is so silent tonight.

A good dose of this...

...would repair the blog's silence.

That's a composite image of Yasi (the most impressive storm this year, imho) at peak strength.
Quoting yqt1001:
Cyclone Monica at peak intensity:








I'm hoping here in Australia we don't get another Yasi or Monica. People are still recovering Yasi. Our Cyclone season starts today. November 1.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Of note is that Franklin's ACE dropped from 0.4050 to 0.2825 due to the fact that it was a named storm for six hours longer than was thought preliminarily...

Dr Ryan Maue hasn't changed his ACE for Franklin yet, still has it at Franklin = 40kts ACE = 0.6875
Quoting Patrap:
"Close the doors, put out the light
You know they won't be home tonight

The snow falls hard and don't you know
The winds of Thor are blowing cold

They're wearing steel that's bright and true
They carry news that must get through"


Hey Pat, how's things mate? Cooling down there in NOLA? Is there much damage left from Katrina around there or has it been mostly cleaned up?
131 Neapolitan "Of note is that Franklin's ACE dropped from 0.4050 to 0.2825 due to the fact that it was a named storm for six hours longer than was thought preliminarily..."

Being strong enough to be Named for 6hours more caused Franklin's ACE to lessen ???
After 6 years they are still many challenges here.

The Levee system is vastly improved.






Uploaded by CubanCongaMan on Apr 17, 2009

The Inner Harbor Navigation Canal (IHNC) Project will be the largest Civil Engineering Works ever performed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. The objective of the IHNP is to protect the lives and property of the citizens of New Orleans, Louisiana. As a Civil Engineer, one cannot aspire to a loftier objective than to serve precisely that function in every project.
This project is also very special to practitioners and students of Civil Engineering in that design and construction works are being concurrently performed. This latter feat is presently requiring tremendous knowledge, dedication, and coordination by the Civil Engineers, scientists, and other specialists at the Corps of Engineers (New Orleans) and those serving within the ranks of the successful contractor for the IHNC project: Shaw Environmental and Infrastructure.

For simplicity, the IHNC Project may be classified as the design and construction of a surge barrier and similar to a floodwall. Nevertheless, it will be a very long barrier (2 miles or 3.2 km) across the canal and will have to resist the tremendous impact of a water surge from Lake Borgne and/or the Gulf of Mexico during a hurricane.

The surge barrier will be constructed near the confluence of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) and the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO). Since these are navigable waters, navigation gates will be constructed where the barrier crosses the GIWW and Bayou Bienvenue to reduce the risk of storm surge. A significant part of the works to be performed are of a geotechnical engineering nature, beginning with the construction of the Bayou Bienvenues levees to retain the dredge materials for the access channel, shoreline protection works, partial filling of the MRGO, the driving of nearly 1300 piles to depths of up to 230 feet, installation of sheet-pile walls, potential expansion of access roads through poor soils.

For additional information on the project, please visit the U.S. Corps of Engineers Team New Orleans Project Portal at the following Web link: http://tiny.cc/IhjI4

Enjoy,
Roberto L. Sanchez, P.E.
President/Principal Engineer
Star Engineering, Inc.







Uploaded by teamneworleans on Jan 15, 2010
Inner Harbor Navigation Canal Surge Barrier project and a storm event

Reduces risk to New Orleans East, Metro New Orleans, the 9th Ward & St. Bernard from storm surge.
Quoting Patrap:
After 6 years they are still many challenges here.

The Levee system is vastly improved.






Uploaded by CubanCongaMan on Apr 17, 2009

The Inner Harbor Navigation Canal (IHNC) Project will be the largest Civil Engineering Works ever performed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. The objective of the IHNP is to protect the lives and property of the citizens of New Orleans, Louisiana. As a Civil Engineer, one cannot aspire to a loftier objective than to serve precisely that function in every project.
This project is also very special to practitioners and students of Civil Engineering in that design and construction works are being concurrently performed. This latter feat is presently requiring tremendous knowledge, dedication, and coordination by the Civil Engineers, scientists, and other specialists at the Corps of Engineers (New Orleans) and those serving within the ranks of the successful contractor for the IHNC project: Shaw Environmental and Infrastructure.

For simplicity, the IHNC Project may be classified as the design and construction of a surge barrier and similar to a floodwall. Nevertheless, it will be a very long barrier (2 miles or 3.2 km) across the canal and will have to resist the tremendous impact of a water surge from Lake Borgne and/or the Gulf of Mexico during a hurricane.

The surge barrier will be constructed near the confluence of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) and the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO). Since these are navigable waters, navigation gates will be constructed where the barrier crosses the GIWW and Bayou Bienvenue to reduce the risk of storm surge. A significant part of the works to be performed are of a geotechnical engineering nature, beginning with the construction of the Bayou Bienvenues levees to retain the dredge materials for the access channel, shoreline protection works, partial filling of the MRGO, the driving of nearly 1300 piles to depths of up to 230 feet, installation of sheet-pile walls, potential expansion of access roads through poor soils.

For additional information on the project, please visit the U.S. Corps of Engineers Team New Orleans Project Portal at the following Web link: http://tiny.cc/IhjI4

Enjoy,
Roberto L. Sanchez, P.E.
President/Principal Engineer
Star Engineering, Inc.






Do they really think they can make that work? How tall is this surge barrier going to be? How high was Katrina's surge, 30-40ft???
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do they really think they can make that work? How big is this surge barrier going to be? How high was Katrina's surge, 30-40ft???


K's surge here was 17ft,, its Highest was in Waveland, Miss @ 30ft.


That's only one of many projects already completed.


One can find all the want to learn on the Storm and the Levee Improvements by asking Google or other search engines, Or maybe try the Corps of Engineer's site as well.

The link is provided.


Quoting Patrap:


K's surge here was 17ft,, its Highest was in Waveland, Miss @ 30ft.


That's only one of many projects already completed.


One can find all the want to learn on the Storm and the Levee Improvements by asking Google or other search engines, Or maybe try the Corps of Engineer's site as well.

The link is provided.



thanks but what about damage, is there still any around or it's all cleaned up now?
Quoting aspectre:
107 stormpetrol [wind map]

Closed low northeast of CostaRica?


Weak but closed,I think.




These Obs would also support a closed low in that area. Does it move inland or slowly drift north is the ? I expect to see 1-2 storms out that area before the Season is done, still One month left!
140 AussieStorm "Interesting Quake in California"

Odd how he doesn't mention the Reno Swarm.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 311306
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

.UPDATE...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...
BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COAST. WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.



Poor forecasters, Tampa Bay weather is just hard to predict.

The forecast called for a few light showers at 30% this morning, QPF around 0.05 to 0.10 forecast. Well we got 1.17 here haha.

The last 2 rain events we were forecast to get 2 to 4 inches each event, well, we got around 0.10, lol.

That was all forecasts too. Forecasting weather is hard here!
Noting:- 134. AussieStorm
Thanks Aussie,
That second map on your post at 134 is very interesting to us, as it can be used to easily point out the Ice, Snow levels over the North Americas up to the Arctic.
Can you tell me.Is it available to be seen as a link or which site does it come from?
Quoting stormpetrol:


Weak but closed,I think.




These Obs would also support a closed low in that area. Does it move inland or slowly drift north is the ? I expect to see 1-2 storms out that area before the Season is done, still One month left!



See Loop

Link


A Surface Low is forming EAst of Florida.....it is confirmed by 850mb Vorticity and Convergence.








It's under HIGH Shear so this would be not likely be Completly Tropical in Nature as it is attached to the Cold Front as well....likely SubTropical if it continutes to form!
Unlike in the NE, I know it isn't unusual for there to be snow up here this time of year. However, it is our first winter here and it amazes me, so I thought I would share. Picture taken at Thompson's pass in Alaska.



Kelley

Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Ahhh the NHC. Gotta love those guys. The ridiculously insane blown out projection for the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season made them look even more inept.

It still does not alleviate them or remove culpability or any accountability from the royal, utter botched forecasts they put out for Rina. I don't care how difficult the system was. Heck, Paula and Matthew from last year were just as complex--if not more--and I don't remember the colossal lack of knowledge and intuition that went into those forecasts.

With the tax payers doling out millions of dollars annually to a government entity it wants entrust with their lives, it's time they use the technology and personnel at their disposal to get this right and quit making a mockery out of tropical weather forecasting. Period.
Is that you, Joe Bastardi???

Stuff happens. That is all.


Anthony







MIDWEST snow maybe a dusting coming
BBL....Gotta go buy some GOOD Treats for those dang little brats tonite....i would rather TREAT than to be TRICKED.........well maybe not!
Fort Lauderdale about to get more heavy rain, we received about 4 in two hours in the early morning hours. Some places had up to 8 inches of rain.

This wild vorticity that meandered up the SE side of FL dumping & wrecking, stepped off when it nearly made it here. Now it's moving off to the east. Pretty interesting what some of the models do with it, here's CMC..Combining it with another low rolling off around NC & bombing it over the gulf stream.
119. If Lee caused more than a billion in damages to the USA, its a shoe in to be retired as the 2nd TS to ever be retired in History. Irene is already a given it will be retired.
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Ahhh the NHC. Gotta love those guys. The ridiculously insane blown out projection for the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season made them look even more inept.

It still does not alleviate them or remove culpability or any accountability from the royal, utter botched forecasts they put out for Rina. I don't care how difficult the system was. Heck, Paula and Matthew from last year were just as complex--if not more--and I don't remember the colossal lack of knowledge and intuition that went into those forecasts.

With the tax payers doling out millions of dollars annually to a government entity it wants entrust with their lives, it's time they use the technology and personnel at their disposal to get this right and quit making a mockery out of tropical weather forecasting. Period.


What did the NHC do wrong? They did the best they could with the data they had. Weather forecasting is one of the hardest, least rewarding science related jobs there is. Even when they are right, some person on here has a complaint about something they did or did not do. And when they are wrong, everyone yells and says the NWS is a waste of money and resources. I guess you dont think about how many lives have been saved by the warnings that are put out before a storm hits and the money saved due to people being able to prepare their property before a hurricane comes flying ashore because they had several days of warning. That was a completely wrong and incorrect statement to make, and I -sed that. Just because a storm is slighty weaker than expected is not a reason to disrespect them like that. They make good forecasts 90% of the time. Unless you can do better, please don't comment like that.
Now those are some beautiful pictures on the doctors blog. But I see a very interesing spin above Venezuela in the Caribbean.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
119. If Lee caused more than a billion in damages to the USA, its a shoe in to be retired as the 2nd TS to ever be retired in History. Irene is already a given it will be retired.

Damage was only about $250 million and most of it was while Lee wasn't a TS, so I doubt it will be retired.
..in late October,early Nov, spect the unexpected.


November 7, 2008 | 10:26 PM ET Interesting historic info on November hurricanes... From Dr. Jeff Masters of www.wunderground.com:

Historically, only about 5% of all Atlantic tropical storm activity occurs after November 1. Between 1871 and 2007, 60 tropical storms formed in November. Of these, 29 became hurricanes, and four of these, major hurricanes. There have also been two major hurricanes that formed in October and continued on into November. On average, one tropical storm forms in November every other year, and we can expect a November hurricane about one year in five.

The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April. Major hurricanes in the Atlantic by month, 1851-2008 Read more:

http://weather.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/11/07/inter esting-historic-info-on-november-hurricanes/#ixzz1 cO7YSAoU" target="_blank">http://weather.blogs.foxnews.com
Quoting 12george1:

Damage was only about $250 million and most of it was while Lee wasn't a TS, so I doubt it will be retired.


If you are using Wikipedia for that source, you should also note that it says ">250 million" meaning that the damage estimates aren't very clear. And if you read the article you would notice that it got the numbers from:

"Damage in Tioga County in the Southern Tier was estimated at around $100 million"


"Replacing the destroyed PA 87 bridge and repairs to the damaged railroad bridge and Pennsylvania Route 87 were estimated to cost more than $25 million.

In Dauphin County, damage totaled about $150 million. The storm destroyed 294 buildings and damaged another 2,234. In nearby Lebanon County, there were 2,212 homes that sustained damage. Damage in York County reached $2.9 million."


"In Fairfax County, Virginia, VDOT estimated up to $10 million of damage to roads and bridges."

None of the damage costs in the southern states is listed, but I know the flooding was heavy in Louisiana so there should be millions in damage there. Also notice that the numbers come from only a few counties, and even then mostly related to roads and bridges.

When the TCR for Lee comes out, we will know the full damage and whether or not it will be retired.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
119. If Lee caused more than a billion in damages to the USA, its a shoe in to be retired as the 2nd TS to ever be retired in History. Irene is already a given it will be retired.

Both of those statements could be false...We won't know for sure until the spring of next year.

However, I will say, Irene does have an extreme chance of being retired.
I wont be on much until June or May because I only mostly talk tropics. I need to make that blog I was planning
Quoting Skyepony:
This wild vorticity that meandered up the SE side of FL dumping & wrecking, stepped off when it nearly made it here. Now it's moving off to the east. Pretty interesting what some of the models do with it, here's CMC..Combining it with another low rolling off around NC & bombing it over the gulf stream.
oh no, not more rain, south florida doesnt need anymore this soon
167. 7544
flaa has recived more from this front than any trop. system this year and still is getting pounded
Quoting TampaSpin:


A Surface Low is forming EAst of Florida.....it is confirmed by 850mb Vorticity and Convergence.








It's under HIGH Shear so this would be not likely be Completly Tropical in Nature as it is attached to the Cold Front as well....likely SubTropical if it continutes to form!
would that low be going up the east coast again?
Quoting weatherbro:
Short wave trough axis now just west of Big Bend area(as of 11:00 A.M.) expected to be positioned over Cape Hatteras at 5 P.M.

Closed low now just NNE of Nassau Bahama expected to quickly intensify and head NE off of the Carolina's by the Afternoon.

This in turn will pull a reinforcing front down the peninsula this afternoon and bring dry air evection through Central Florida by 5 P.M. and South Florida(and Miami) by 1 A.M.

The I-4 Corridor should see clear skies with night time lows in the mid-upper 50's by next morning!

In summery, all is not lost this Halloween for Orlando and Tampa!
thanks, i saw a spot of sun lol coming back on I-4 this afternoon, rains gone now
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both of those statements could be false...We won't know for sure until the spring of next year.

However, I will say, Irene does have an extreme chance of being retired.

"Irene does have an extreme chance of being retired"
Irene is going to get retired, PERIOD.
10 billion dollars in damage is a DEFINITE RETIREMENT.
50 deaths SHOULD be a definite retirement.
Very few hurricanes that have had over 50 deaths have not been retired, however 2 examples are Hurricane Gordon (Link)
and Hurricane Hanna
(Link)

On the other hand, Lee, I personally think should be retired, the flooding was SIGNIFICANT.
Just pointing out the obvious.
123. If anything, they could use a couple hundred million more to help update their forecasting abilities. They have been underfunded, but do a decent job considering satellites & other equipment they could use are delayed or cancelled. Really tired of the anti-science attitudes prevalent in the last decade. Short sided cutting of research on any number of fronts and lack of emphasis on S,T,& M education will be our country's downfall if it is not reversed! They save countless lives with their advisories/warnings, and better to be over than under warned, in my opinion.

11th in '11!
Over 10" of rain here for the month here in NW Orlando with some area south of us near Lake O getting 20" to 25" this month. Vero Beach has had the second wettest month on record with 21.3". Amazing that FL has had so much rain this month in what is considered one of the drier months of the year.
Quoting dabirds:
123. If anything, they could use a couple hundred million more to help update their forecasting abilities. They have been underfunded, but do a decent job considering satellites & other equipment they could use are delayed or cancelled. Really tired of the anti-science attitudes prevalent in the last decade. Short sided cutting of research on any number of fronts and lack of emphasis on S,T,& M education will be our country's downfall if it is not reversed! They save countless lives with their advisories/warnings, and better to be over than under warned, in my opinion.

11th in '11!
sounds nice but until the govt can balance the budget every cut should be considered
Quoting CybrTeddy:
119. If Lee caused more than a billion in damages to the USA, its a shoe in to be retired as the 2nd TS to ever be retired in History. Irene is already a given it will be retired.


Nah.

America has had more than one storm causing a billion damage and not being retired - Dolly's a good example. That headline doesn't mean so much anymore with increases in GDP and inflation etc.

Mexico's a bit similar - though they seem rather reluctant to retire storms (or perhaps, it should be looked that they only retire ones that really mean something to them). For any other country in hurricane alley, a billion worth of damage ranges from significant to near-apocalyptic.

Irene's quite certain.

Even if Lee was, I think that says more about America than anything else.

Some of the worst off countries in the Western Hemisphere in Haiti, Nicaragua, etc - yet America would hold a monopoly on tropical storm retirements?
I have a feeling hurricane season ain't over yet based on this below. Could have another storm in the Caribbean come the second week of November.

The kids are gonna be so dissapointed this evening.It's not ganna only be cold outside.But it may also be showers coming around.Now imagine if there was snow on the ground like in other areas of the mid-atlantic and northeast.Man that would be treacherous...well however you spell it.Just got off of work and don't feel like thinking.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both of those statements could be false...We won't know for sure until the spring of next year.

However, I will say, Irene does have an extreme chance of being retired.


I'd be confused as heck as why they wouldn't retire Irene, the hype alone it generated merits retirement. The damage also merits retirement. 3 billion in the Caribbean + 5-10 billion in the USA.

And I like your reasoning Cotillion, we will find out in the spring.
FWIW, if/when Irene is retired.. it would be proof to me that the 'I's are the most dangerous.

2011 - Irene.
2010 - Igor.
2009 - Ida (not retired, but was certainty the strongest system to hit the USA and perhaps the most noticeable of the season)
2008 - Ike.
2004 - Ivan
2003 - Isabel
2002 - Isidore
2001 - Iris.
1999 - Irene (not retired, but US Category 2 landfall)

This is probably not a coincidence, by the time the 9th named storm forms in an active season - that's when we see the deadliest hits.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, if/when Irene is retired.. it would be proof to me that the 'I's are the most dangerous.

2011 - Irene.
2010 - Igor.
2009 - Ida (not retired, but was certainty the strongest system to hit the USA and perhaps the most noticeable of the season)
2008 - Ike.
2004 - Ivan
2003 - Isabel
2002 - Isidore
2001 - Iris.
1999 - Irene (not retired, but US Category 2 landfall)

This is probably not a coincidence, by the time the 9th named storm forms in an active season - that's when we see the deadliest hits.

Next years list:

- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Florence
- Gordon
- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Michael
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sandy
- Tony
- Valerie
- William

Scariest names to me: Ernesto, Isaac, Kirk, Oscar, Rafael.
The "I" named storms are the best name storms!!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Next years list:

- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Florence
- Gordon
- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Michael
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sandy
- Tony
- Valerie
- William

Scariest names to me: Ernesto, Isaac, Kirk, Oscar, Rafael.
For some odd reason this list of names always get stuck with an El nino or just not active.However I think next year will be an exception since La nina will make a return.Booooooo.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Next years list:

- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Florence
- Gordon
- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Michael
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sandy
- Tony
- Valerie
- William

Scariest names to me: Ernesto, Isaac, Kirk, Oscar, Rafael.

Also, Gordon and Florence for me.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The "I" named storms are the best name storms!!!! For some odd reason this list of names always get stuck with an El nino or just not active.However I think next year will be an exception since La nina will make a return.Booooooo.

inb4nextyearis2012
Good Afternoon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Scariest names to me: Ernesto, Isaac, Kirk, Oscar, Rafael.

Debby. XD
Quoting washingtonian115:
The "I" named storms are the best name storms!!!! For some odd reason this list of names always get stuck with an El nino or just not active.However I think next year will be an exception since La nina will make a return.Booooooo.

Well, the seasons using these names (2006, 2000, 1994, etc) have had relatively weak storms with an El Nino. However, as you said, I think we'll see a completely different outcome next season with La Nina.
Quoting Articuno:

inb4nextyearis2012
Ah yes.How could I forget.What?.A category five storm making landfall on some big city down in the south or N.Y.C.Lol.I then a cat four hurricane forms the week after a hits another big city.Lol.I wouldn't be surprised if hollywood tried to make a movie of these sorts of things.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah yes.How could I forget.What?.A category five storm making landfall on some big city down in the south or N.Y.C.Lol.I then a cat four hurricane forms the week after a hits another big city.Lol.I wouldn't be surprised if hollywood tried to make a movie of these sorts of things.

They already have, the movie called 2012.
Hello Dr Jeff and all who post here.

Happy Halloween!

WOW, here in Broward county in my neighborhood. I have two rain guages..
and we got 4" of rain Fri night.
then another 2" of rain Sat afternoon
Then a another 2" yesterday and last night
and another 2" this afternoon...

10" of rain since Friday!
of course, our "official" rain measurements come from the Ft Lauderdale Airport, which never has a rain cloud over their guages..

so we officially do not have that much rain.. but just ask all of us who live west of I95, we are drowning!

Please stop the rain.

if we get any trick or treaters tonight they will need boats.


last year we had downpours of rain for Halloween evening so that was a bummer but at least the parents and kids could get out with an umbrella...but not this year...


oh well... Lake Okeechobee is also near 14 ft.. they start draining it at 15 ft..
we should be in good shape going into dry season..


take care,


Happy Halloween my WU Friends!!!



Enjoy your evening!!!
Quoting Articuno:

They already have, the movie called 2012.

Yeah, but that isn't based off hurricanes...That is based off earthquakes, flood, extreme cold, etc.
Quoting Articuno:

They already have, the movie called 2012.
Yes I know.But this time starring hurricanes reeking havoc on coastal cities.Lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, the seasons using these names (2006, 2000, 1994, etc) have had relatively weak storms with an El Nino. However, as you said, I think we'll see a completely different outcome next season with La Nina.
Maybe Isaac will finally join his fellow "I" name storms in the hall of retierment?.I'm just kidding.But as cyberteddy said earlier the I name storms always form during the most active parts of the season.And the most favorable conditions preveil once a "I" name storm comes around.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but that isn't based off hurricanes...That is based off earthquakes, flood, extreme cold, etc.

Oh..
173. Short sided cutting of what amounts to pennies in the overall budget at the expense of research that could grow the economy, increase efficiency, save multiples of those research costs would do more to balance the budget in the long run. Losing the technological edge we've had for decades has cost this country jobs, and therefore the taxes that could have kept us more in balance. Not saying some cuts aren't needed, but wiser choices are needed in what is cut. Technological breakthroughs are the main driver of growth we've had the last century and losing it costs us much more than costs of the research that helps drive them.
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:

Is that you, Joe Bastardi???

Stuff happens. That is all.


Anthony


JFV! Is that you?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.

Debby. XD


Countdown to start of 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Countdown to start of 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

Link
This will probally be the most anticapated hurricane season since 2010...just because of the year(2012) and La nina making her return.
I thought the models were showing a neutral season (again)?

Then again, neutral seasons tend to be more interesting than La Nina years...for me at least.
Happy Halloween Seflagamma and Everyone!

I have accounted 11 inches since Friday in my not so trusty rain gauge. I was hoping it would stop already so the kids can go out tonight, but just saw Flood warning till 11pm so that probably means more rain.
Why is it so hard for people to let go of the season.... its a wonderful world out there enjoy lifr
Link

I see 3 possible lows in the Caribbean at this time,one at 11N/81W NNE of Costa Rica, appears stationary ATM, one at around 16N/84W, another ULL that appears to want to work its way down around 14N/75W!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, if/when Irene is retired.. it would be proof to me that the 'I's are the most dangerous.

2011 - Irene.
2010 - Igor.
2009 - Ida (not retired, but was certainty the strongest system to hit the USA and perhaps the most noticeable of the season)
2008 - Ike.
2004 - Ivan
2003 - Isabel
2002 - Isidore
2001 - Iris.
1999 - Irene (not retired, but US Category 2 landfall)

This is probably not a coincidence, by the time the 9th named storm forms in an active season - that's when we see the deadliest hits.


I second that!
201. DDR
Good evening all
Good to see Florida getting rain,not so good the flooding,it has also been very wet at my location in Triniad,for October i've got 23.85 inches as compared to last years 6 inches.
Quoting yqt1001:
I thought the models were showing a neutral season (again)?

Then again, neutral seasons tend to be more interesting than La Nina years...for me at least.
Mm.They put out a advisory for la nina a few months back.Doc even wrote a blog for it.
The 2011 Halloween Nor'easter continues its track towards the United Kingdom.

Evening all. We just got our bit of the front about an hour ago. It rained across the island from NW to SE starting about 4 p.m. It looks like it's still raining up east, but out west the rain has ceased for a while.

Normally we don't get as much rain with a frontal passage as we did with this one, so there's probably still a lot of moisture in the air in our vicinity.

Quoting WoodyFL:


Most new developments are forbidden to have solar panels at all.
This is INSANE. They are FORCING people to use the existing power grid?????

How.... Floridian.... [weird! not what I'd expect!]

Quoting divingpyrate:
Why is it so hard for people to let go of the season.... its a wonderful world out there enjoy lifr
Uh.... there's a reason we are here blogging about the tropical cyclone season in the ATL.... which, BTW doesn't officially end until 30 Nov.... and, as AussieStorm so rightfully reminded us, tomorrow is the start of the Southern Hemisphere season, so we can keep on watching!

Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. We just got our bit of the front about an hour ago. It rained across the island from NW to SE starting about 4 p.m. It looks like it's still raining up east, but out west the rain has ceased for a while.

Normally we don't get as much rain with a frontal passage as we did with this one, so there's probably still a lot of moisture in the air in our vicinity.

This is INSANE. They are FORCING people to use the existing power grid?????

How.... Floridian.... [weird! not what I'd expect!]

Uh.... there's a reason we are here blogging about the tropical cyclone season in the ATL.... which, BTW doesn't officially end until 30 Nov.... and, as AussieStorm so rightfully reminded us, tomorrow is the start of the Southern Hemisphere season, so we can keep on watching!

Floridans are weired people.
On this day in history....

On 1st November, 2001 [10 years ago] Major Hurricane Michelle was designated TS Michelle just NE of the Honduras coast.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Floridans are weired people.
Nah... I'm pretty used to the Floridian mindset.... they're pretty pragmatic about a lot of stuff.... which makes me wonder WHICH Floridians are making these rules.... and even how much in the way of kickbacks they are getting..... just weird...
http://www.nutsie.com/top100sradio/Top%20100%20Ha lloween%20Songs/18535651


The above is a link to some endless Halloween music...i got it plugged into the wireless speakers jamming outside......HAVE FUN
The solar panel thing is not a law made by any politician on any level. You're free to do whatever you want in Florida regarding solar panels. UNLESS, you live in a community with a homeowner's association. Then your neighbor's who are on the board of directors can make association rules, subject to vote by the entire community of homeowners. Most of these communities, normally townhomes sharing a common roof, want to maintain some level of uniformity. Making sure that everyone's roof has the same shingle or tile, each home has the exact same color patio awning, etc. The solar panel issue varies. Most associations will allow them with the common sense reasoning that it makes sense. But, some won't approve them. I'm sure if homeowner associations exist in the Bahamas, it's the same issue.
*Hands everybody free candy.*
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, if/when Irene is retired.. it would be proof to me that the 'I's are the most dangerous.

2011 - Irene.
2010 - Igor.
2009 - Ida (not retired, but was certainty the strongest system to hit the USA and perhaps the most noticeable of the season)
2008 - Ike.
2004 - Ivan
2003 - Isabel
2002 - Isidore
2001 - Iris.
1999 - Irene (not retired, but US Category 2 landfall)

This is probably not a coincidence, by the time the 9th named storm forms in an active season - that's when we see the deadliest hits.


It's essentially what 'C' used to be - the letter still holding the most retirements. Charley was the last to be retired, I think off the top of my head.

2012 list is interesting. That list has had the fewest retirements of all the lists - just 3 (Gilbert, Joan, Keith). 1980 none, 88 - 2, 94 - 0 (Gordon should've been), 00 - 1, 06 - 0. List with fewest retirements before that one was the list behind this year - before '99 and '05 added names.

While what names what list has is inconsequential, I do find that list the most scary. The type of names you'd associate with a 1950-redux. Hopefully, it retains some semblance of benevolence in comparison to its peers.

You feel 2012 is going to be a damp squib or a total horror (references to the Mesoamerican Long Count aside considering that it has absolutely nothing to do with impending doom and destruction). History, aside the last time we had four years after a switch to cold PDO, suggests the former is more likely.

That said, 2012's the first year we *may* see a Cat 5 since 2007 as the pattern swings back around. Not for certain, but in play (a hunch, but been right the last few years on that).
floridians aren't weird, we are just layed back...... Big cities suck......... (can't breath,can't move, can't fish lol)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Floridans are weired people.


Perhaps it is related to the fact that solar panels will get ripped off by strong storms... smashed solar panels everywhere after a hurricane, become toxic problems... silicon tetrachloride or cadmium telluride for example.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Most new developments are forbidden to have solar panels at all.

2011 Florida Statutes Title XI, Chapter 163, Section 04, paragraph (2):

A deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or similar binding agreement may not prohibit or have the effect of prohibiting solar collectors, clotheslines, or other energy devices based on renewable resources from being installed on buildings erected on the lots or parcels covered by the deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or binding agreement. A property owner may not be denied permission to install solar collectors or other energy devices by any entity granted the power or right in any deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or similar binding agreement to approve, forbid, control, or direct alteration of property with respect to residential dwellings and within the boundaries of a condominium unit. Such entity may determine the specific location where solar collectors may be installed on the roof within an orientation to the south or within 45 east or west of due south if such determination does not impair the effective operation of the solar collectors.
The pictures posted after Dr M's blog are beautiful and amazing. But they also make me glad I live in Florida, The Land Of Deed Restrictions Which Say NO Solar Panels Allowed In This Housing Development In The Sunshine State. (Which is why we live in the sticks).

Quoting BahaHurican:
Nah... I'm pretty used to the Floridian mindset.... they're pretty pragmatic about a lot of stuff.... which makes me wonder WHICH Floridians are making these rules.... and even how much in the way of kickbacks they are getting..... just weird...


Some Floridians are a little strange, I was watching some tree trimmers in their bucket truck trimming tree branches with their bare arms and the metal frame about 1 foot away from 12,000 volt power lines. They didn't even put wire guards up, one mistake and you'll have your arm blow off from an arch, and wake up with extreme pain and depression, and that's if you're fortunate...
Quoting NHCaddict:
The pictures posted after Dr M's blog are beautiful and amazing. But they also make me glad I live in Florida, The Land Of Deed Restrictions Which Say NO Solar Panels Allowed In This Housing Development In The Sunshine State. (Which is why we live in the sticks).



Nevermind

/font=Emily Litella

lol
Quoting DDR:
Good evening all
Good to see Florida getting rain,not so good the flooding,it has also been very wet at my location in Triniad,for October i've got 23.85 inches as compared to last years 6 inches.
I will trade you, 11 inches here the past 13 months plus, No improvement in the drought close to me, Happy Halloween to all
Quoting Jedkins01:


Some Floridians are a little strange, I was watching some tree trimmers in their bucket truck trimming tree branches with their bare arms and the metal frame about 1 foot away from 12,000 volt power lines. They didn't even put wire guards up, one mistake and you'll have your arm blow off from an arch, and wake up with extreme pain and depression, and that's if you're fortunate...
Hey... unlike those from other states, Floridian tree trimmers don't have to worry about getting fried.... they're too laid back to worry.... :o)
212. Cotillion 7:17 PM EDT on October 31, 2011
Hey, Cotillion, I'm wondering if we won't see an early flip to El Nino, so that by the height of the season conditions are much less favorable. That would give the damp squib effect right there. It wouldn't be unprecedented. OTOH, the cold PDO could have a rather different impact, keeping us neutral / cold side, which would have a rather different impact.


Uh.... Twaves are still out there, ppl.
225. DDR
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I will trade you, 11 inches here the past 13 months plus, No improvement in the drought close to me, Happy Halloween to all

Hey there
wow...that is horrible,hope next year brings some rainfall to your area and TX.
Just imagine i got the same 11 inches in 4 days here 2 weeks ago,incredible extremes.
226. DDR
Quoting BahaHurican:


Uh.... Twaves are still out there, ppl.

Interesting,the one furthest west will be moving through here tomorrow,just had a downpour from the leading edge.
The starvation for hurricane activity is pretty evident on here, lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
212. Cotillion 7:17 PM EDT on October 31, 2011
Hey, Cotillion, I'm wondering if we won't see an early flip to El Nino, so that by the height of the season conditions are much less favorable. That would give the damp squib effect right there. It wouldn't be unprecedented. OTOH, the cold PDO could have a rather different impact, keeping us neutral / cold side, which would have a rather different impact.


If the CFS model is right,La Nina would be hanging around by late Spring to early Summer. But as we know,things can change in the Tropics and La Nina may fade more quickly.



Quoting BahaHurican:
212. Cotillion 7:17 PM EDT on October 31, 2011
Hey, Cotillion, I'm wondering if we won't see an early flip to El Nino, so that by the height of the season conditions are much less favorable. That would give the damp squib effect right there. It wouldn't be unprecedented. OTOH, the cold PDO could have a rather different impact, keeping us neutral / cold side, which would have a rather different impact.


Hey Baha,

Well, the cold PDO really deals with probability of ENSO as opposed to anything else (at least, in the context of what we're dealing with). As there was an El Nino as recently as 2009, I would not expect to see one upcoming. You regularly saw periods of 5 to 6 years of no El Nino during cold PDO. This is not to say we may have to wait until 2014-15 to see another El Nino, but rather we should not be surprised by seeing it less.

Musing over the activity being subdued is more down to the often seen event of seasons being unable to keep up high activity seasons three times in a row, particularly when you have three cold seasons (though the neutral season this year has skewed that).

Of course, that's been challenged in the last fifteen years to some extent - taking the 98-01 section as well as 03-05, though both of those segments differ from the last two years.

As most of the previous cold PDO was not seen by satellites (and we know of that impact on quantity) as well as the peculiarity of this year, it does leave more unknowns than usual for next year.
Quoting Neapolitan:

2011 Florida Statutes Title XI, Chapter 163, Section 04, paragraph (2):

A deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or similar binding agreement may not prohibit or have the effect of prohibiting solar collectors, clotheslines, or other energy devices based on renewable resources from being installed on buildings erected on the lots or parcels covered by the deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or binding agreement. A property owner may not be denied permission to install solar collectors or other energy devices by any entity granted the power or right in any deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or similar binding agreement to approve, forbid, control, or direct alteration of property with respect to residential dwellings and within the boundaries of a condominium unit. Such entity may determine the specific location where solar collectors may be installed on the roof within an orientation to the south or within 45� east or west of due south if such determination does not impair the effective operation of the solar collectors.


No deed restrictions in this neighborhood, where I live.

As a result, one can install solar panels and all sorts of other gadgets on their property, if they so desire. There are city-wide code restrictions in effect, such as disallowing fencing that is more than six feet in height unless a special permit for an exception is granted.

But aside from the solar panels being allowed, we also have such things as RV's parked in driveways and alongside houses, so there are both advantages and disadvantages to deed restrictions.

Most people I know who do live in deed restricted subdivisions and communities have some degree of trouble with their homeowner's association, which can be surprisingly Gestapo-like in enforcing the restrictions. I imagine in such cases, if one were to construct solar panels, they would be immediately threatened with losing their home.
For those of you with clear skies, Jupiter is near opposition. Jupiter was at its brightest on October 29, but is still brighter this week than at any time until 2021. In the evening it is the brightest object in the sky besides the moon. In the evening look for it in the east. If the sky is fair you can't miss it!
Quoting FLWaterFront:


No deed restrictions in this neighborhood, where I live.

As a result, one can install solar panels and all sorts of other gadgets on their property, if they so desire. There are city-wide code restrictions in effect, such as disallowing fencing that is more than six feet in height unless a special permit for an exception is granted.

But aside from the solar panels being allowed, we also have such things as RV's parked in driveways and alongside houses, so there are both advantages and disadvantages to deed restrictions.

Most people I know who do live in deed restricted subdivisions and communities have some degree of trouble with their homeowner's association, which can be surprisingly Gestapo-like in enforcing the restrictions. I imagine in such cases, if one were to construct solar panels, they would be immediately threatened with losing their home.

True. In my experience, on the board of nearly every Florida HOA sits at least one very experienced, very retired, and very bored attorney looking for something to do, and woe to the homeowner who dares to violate in the slightest the deed covenants and restrictions. What's that? The bulb next to your patio door went out, and you replaced the DCR-mandated 75-watt bulb with a 60-watt one? Just who do you think you are?!

;-)
Any homeowners organization or local government in Florida that prevents people from installing solar panels is insane.

It's the Sunshine State! Let people use it if they want to!
Neo you have it right! I sit on a Board of Adjustments for my county. We handle special exceptions, lot area variances, signage, home occupations etc. and many times we see HOA attorneys or officers asking us to enforce their deed restrictions even though county planning or zoning laws allow the case. Many of these HOA made the rules after the Comprehensive plan was approved, or deed restricted subdivisions want us to deny things that the county approves of but are deed restricted, again written after the approval of the County Comprehensive Plan and we can not legal deny it if the Comprehensive Plan approves it.

These attorneys get really upset, partly because it falls back on them to inforce the deed restrictions or HOA rules, and partly because we been there done that and state it at the beginning of the meeting. We are happy to allow you to make your objection a part of the record but we can not enforce your deed restrictions or HOA rules.
"With two months still left in the year, New York City has a chance to beat its all-time wettest year in history, the 80.56" that fell in 1980. Records date back to 1869."

I believe the yearly rainfall record for nyc was set in 1983, not 1980. I very clearly remember 1980 ending in drought, it was considered the worst drought since the mid 1960's at the time. The rainfall record was probably 1983, a year of viscous rainstorms, never missed an opportunity to rain, and it always stuck around longer than expected. It was also the greatest el nino measured at the time.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
For those of you with clear skies, Jupiter is near opposition. Jupiter was at its brightest on October 29, but is still brighter this week than at any time until 2021. In the evening it is the brightest object in the sky besides the moon. In the evening look for it in the east. If the sky is fair you can't miss it!


Stunning tonight as it rises in the East here.


4.5 inch Reflector. 1 inch and Quarter Pflossel eyepiece.

Looks like you caught 3 of the Galilean satellites too Patrap! :)
Yeah,, they already moved into a different perspective as we await the Great Red Spot to come round.

happy hollow to ay all
We've got some spinin... east of Trinidad....

Still a lot of moisture out there in that WV loop...
Quoting Patrap:


Stunning tonight as it rises in the East here.


4.5 inch Reflector. 1 inch and Quarter Pflossel eyepiece.

Pat.. saw Jupiter rising this evening here in Cayman while driving home after work.Sun was barely below the horizon and Jupiter was clear and bright rising in the east.
Can someone explain, simply, why the big blob coming off africa
won't develope? I see that the shear above it is high but it looks
very large and low with high vorticity. Are there other factors I don't
understand that would hinder developement if this crossed low under
the heavy shear?
Thanks
Quoting WatcherCI:
Can someone explain, simply, why the big blob coming off africa
won't develope? I see that the shear above it is high but it looks
very large and low with high vorticity. Are there other factors I don't
understand that would hinder developement if this crossed low under
the heavy shear?
Thanks




CV season is overe thats why
Quoting wxgeek723:
The starvation for hurricane activity is pretty evident on here, lol
Obviously, this blog is mainly to discuss the tropics, now it will go to invernation for the next 6 month. Most of us will just lurk here and there during "the non Hurricane season" for anything interested to pop out with wintry weather.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Obviously, this blog is mainly to discuss the tropics, now it will go to invernation for the next 6 month. Most of us will just lurk here and there during "the non Hurricane season" for anything interested to pop out with wintry weather.





what the heck?


no its not we talk about all kinds of things snow storms hurricane GW so on and so on this blog is not mainly about the tropice sorry
I guess the night crew left?
Arabian Sea

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
8:30 AM IST November 1 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into deep depression. Deep Depression ARB02-2011 lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 56.0E, or about 2000 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 450 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 230 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around Wednesday morning.

The depth of convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 18.5N and 51.5E to 58.0E and between 18.5N to 22.5N and 55.0E to 63.0E, including adjacent Oman coast. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -84C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during the past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system center and is not favorable for intensification over gulf of aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate (5-10 knots). There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1004.0 hPa.

Though most of the models suggest movement towards Gulf of Aden/Oman coast, there is large variation in track forecast. ECMWF model show west northwestward movement during the next 48 hours.
Another system (Arabian Sea 6 nov)

two tropical waves out there. the one about 800 miles east of the southern islands have some spin and an abundance of moisture. could be a wet few days
Quoting Tazmanian:





what the heck?


no its not we talk about all kinds of things snow storms hurricane GW so on and so on this blog is not mainly about the tropice sorry


So right Taz! This blog transcends it's original purpose. While you may think it's a tropics blog, during those months of no Atlantic tropical activity, this blog does all you say it does. Excellent coverage of winter storms, wherever they arise. Also, great coverage of southern hemisphere tropical systems, who's season is on the verge of beginning. And of course, the great offseason barrage of G.W.. And that is where this blog actually excels! For it doesn't matter if you agree with the many sound minded folks who agree that agw is happening all around us. ( this blogs author included ), or if you are in the crowd of nay sayers, the exchange of ideas and theories in the off season in that regard are a great place for the open minded and the intrigued to find and form a opinion one way or the other. This forum acts as such a educational tool to so many in very different ways. Nope, never a off season on this well educated, well informed blog! I say, teach away, to any and all who will participate from now till June 1st, 2012!
Quoting WatcherCI:
Can someone explain, simply, why the big blob coming off africa
won't develope? I see that the shear above it is high but it looks
very large and low with high vorticity. Are there other factors I don't
understand that would hinder developement if this crossed low under
the heavy shear?
Thanks


Well fronts, ull's, the shear you mention, and weakening sst's to name a few reasons are why this wave won't develop. This is the hostile time of season, much as June is. Predominate flow has changed from East to West, back to West to East. Happens every year bout this time. That means, something trying to form by Africa will have a much more difficult time developing than say something that spins up in the location of Rina. Not to say it can't happen, just that it is very less much likely than was possible a month or two ago. Climatology dictates that q and a, and will likely reign supreme again.
Euro is showing Sub Tropical Storm moving toward FL's east coast at day 10. Makes a lot of sense as other models are starting to jump on this bad wagon as well.
Kinda looks like TS Gordon set up from 1994. Which oddly enough occured in November! Hurricane season is not over yet folks.
Euro is in with MJO for 11/10/2011.

cable weather keeps saying we can use the rain "dry season is coming" i believe theyve ran out of things to say looks to me its going to be plenty wet here this winter regardless its la nina or not. enough is enough ponds are completely full here in e.cen fl.
Magnitude 6.5
Date-Time

Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 12:32:00 UTC
Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 05:32:00 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.889N, 109.174W
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles)
Region REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION
Distances 227 km (141 miles) NE of Socorro Island, Mexico
333 km (206 miles) SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico
419 km (260 miles) W of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
1050 km (652 miles) W of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 21.5 km (13.4 miles); depth /- 2.8 km (1.7 miles)
Parameters NST=359, Nph=359, Dmin=428.6 km, Rmss=1.01 sec, Gp=162,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=C
Source

Magnitude: NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Honolulu, Hawaii
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb0006hfg

quake

000
WEPA42 PHEB 011241
TIBPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1241Z 01 NOV 2011

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1232Z 01 NOV 2011
COORDINATES - 20.0 NORTH 109.2 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 6.5

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Quoting WatcherCI:
Can someone explain, simply, why the big blob coming off africa
won't develope? I see that the shear above it is high but it looks
very large and low with high vorticity. Are there other factors I don't
understand that would hinder developement if this crossed low under
the heavy shear?
Thanks


This looks interesting...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/breaking-an -ipcc-backchannel-cloud-was-apparently-established -to-hide-ipcc-deliberations-from-foia/
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I have a feeling hurricane season ain't over yet based on this below. Could have another storm in the Caribbean come the second week of November.


I have to agree and a projected pass of a CCKW should increase the threat of the genesis of one tropical cyclone. Confidence is low (10%) and will be adjusted with time. 11/16-11/23
Quoting MrMarcus:
This looks interesting...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/breaking-an -ipcc-backchannel-cloud-was-apparently-established -to-hide-ipcc-deliberations-from-foia/

Another swing and a miss for Watts. For something more recent and far more interesting, try this: http://www.southernstudies.org/2011/10/special-in vestigation-whos-behind-the-information-attacks-on -climate-scientists.html.
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Neapolitan, why do you even waste the time to respond to anyone else who provides informative links—links that just so happen to not coincide with your far left, Marxist political agenda and ridiculous pro-AWG bias?
why not?
is climate science politics?

the 'it is' camp: political and corporate figureheads. agenda -money (whether profit or economic policy)

the 'it is not' camp: scientific researchers publishing research results in peer reviewed publications. agenda -science (whether showing climate change or stability)

no further explanation needed.
Quoting Minnemike:
is climate science politics?

the 'it is' camp: political and corporate figureheads. agenda -money (whether profit or economic policy)

the 'it is not' camp: scientific researchers publishing research results in peer reviewed publications. agenda -science (whether showing climate change or stability)

no further explanation needed.

Nailed it!
I always wondered if a hurricane could produce snow. It almost happened with wilma, but missed the connection with the Noreaster. So there's historical evidence of it. But It's so far back I question it's accuracy. It was probably just a strong winter storm.