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Rare late-season Eastern Pacific hurricane forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on November 21, 2011

Tropical Storm Kenneth formed over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific, and intensified into a hurricane late this morning. We are well past the date for the usual formation of the season's last storm, since the African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of more than half of the Eastern Pacific's storms, are rare this time of year. Kenneth formed from some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific that were not associated with African tropical waves. Since 1949, here have been just three Eastern Pacific named storms that formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. If Kenneth grows stronger than a 90 mph hurricane, it will surpass Hurricane Winnie of 1983 as the strongest Eastern Pacific storm so late in the season. Kenneth is moving westwards out to sea, and should not be a threat to land.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Kenneth taken at 7 am EST November 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Atlantic's Invest 99L could become Subtropical Storm Tammy
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has the potential to transition into a subtropical storm over the next day or two. The storm currently lacks a well-defined surface circulation. If it develops one, 99L would be called Subtropical Storm Tammy. The storm is over waters of 26°C, and these waters will cool to 24°C by Tuesday, as 99L moves northeastwards out to sea. These water temperatures are near the limit of where a subtropical or tropical storm can form. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you. FWIW, I believe that, given his satellite presentation, Kenneth will surpass Winnie's 80 knots. But, as always, we'll see.

Hurricane Kenneth:
Tropical

Invest 99L. If this storm gets named, it'll be the latest to do so since 2007's Olga:
Tropical

FWIW, 2005 saw three named storms form after this date, and one of those--Epsilon--went on to become a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Kenneth formed over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific, and appears poised to intensify into a hurricane later today or on Tuesday.


dr m all way dos this he update his blog with out looking at the nhc site for new info on top of this blog it sould say hurricane Kenneth not TS Kenneth and the 2nd line needs to be re move has it is now a hurricane


i all so find it vary annyouing when he dos this has well all ways look at the nhc site for new info on storms be for updateing the blog
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters!! Looks like the Southeast is poised for another lashing of severe weather today and tomorrow!! At least this time the main threat is going to be hail for today and high winds for tomorrow, instead of tornadoes.
i thought you'd see something in the sw carib. this wk hardly a cloud so far
On this date in 1985, Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida panhandle as a Category 2 storm. Hurricane Kate now also holds the record for the latest U.S. landfall in the hurricane season. The previous system that held this record was a storm that struck the southwest Florida coast on December 1st, 1925. That storm was recently reclassified by NHC as a tropical storm and not a category 1 hurricane based on new observations and the latest reanalysis techniques.
Quoting AussieStorm:
On this date in 1985, Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida panhandle as a Category 2 storm. Hurricane Kate now also holds the record for the latest U.S. landfall in the hurricane season. The previous system that held this record was a storm that struck the southwest Florida coast on December 1st, 1925. That storm was recently reclassified by NHC as a tropical storm and not a category 1 hurricane based on new observations and the latest reanalysis techniques.



?


I see 3 vortices now, including the one that I mentioned earlier. It does appear that the one at about 51W 28N may be the main one.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I see 3 vortices now, including the one that I mentioned earlier. It does appear that the one at about 51N 28W may be the main one.

You mean 28N 51W, right?
Quoting Bobbyweather:

You mean 28N 51W, right?


Yes. Typo fail..... Fixed now.
Groesbeck,TX Nearly Out of Water, Hopes to Build Pipeline

Since August, city officials in Groesbeck have known that if they couldn't stop the Navasota River, the community's sole water, from drying up, the town would be without water by Thanksgiving. After a solution devised last week failed, the city now hopes to scramble to build a new pipeline before the water runs out.

High summer temperatures and the statewide drought have caused the Navasota River to evaporate faster than it can be replenished. Last week, the city attempted to solve the problem by purchasing and pumping water from a nearby rock quarry into Jack%u2019s Creek, which feeds into the Navasota, and ultimately, into the city's water treatment plant at the end of Fort Parker Lake. The quarry water managed to get down Jack%u2019s Creek, but the effort was abandoned after the dry and thirsty bed of Fort Parker Lake absorbed most of the quarry water before it made it to the treatment plant.

Yesterday, the Groesbeck city council approved a plan to build a 3.3 mile pipeline from a more water-abundant upper region of the Navasota River to Groesbeck%u2019s water treatment plant. But building the three-mile pipeline will take time %u2014about eight days %u2014 and will be costly. The city will continue sending water from the rock quarry through Jack's Creek and into the river to avoid further depleting the Navasota, but the upper region from which Groesbeck will pump is fuller than the other bodies of water involved, especially Fort Parker Lake. If all goes according to plan, Groesbeck will pay Godwin Pumps $80,000 to build the pipeline and $35,600 per month in rent, Groesbeck Mayor Jackie Levingston said.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality approved the plan, but Groesbeck is still waiting on the approval of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. A department representative is scheduled to visit Groesbeck tomorrow morning, before construction of the pipeline begins.

"We%u2019ve done a lot of pre-clearance and don%u2019t foresee anything going wrong with the plan,%u201D Levingston said. But if the plan doesn%u2019t work, Groesbeck will resort to building a different pipeline from the quarry to the treatment plant, which is projected to take three weeks, though the city already has the necessary clearances for this option.

The Tribune thanks our Supporting Sponsors

If Groesbeck runs out of water before that second pipeline option is completed, it will be forced to truck water in from the rock quarry. Since water consumption in Groesbeck has dropped, a result of its dire straits, Levingston hopes the city will be able to make the current supply last longer than the initial Thanksgiving projection, especially if the second, three-week pipeline project is required.

%u201CWe%u2019ve got so many people involved with this process that things change every hour. People are coming together in such a wonderful way,%u201D said City Administrator Martha Stanton. "That%u2019s positive, and we need something positive.%u201D

Groesbeck is one of a small number of Texas communities on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality%u2019s %u201Chigh priority%u201D water list, which identifies cities and towns that could run out of water within 180 days if the drought persists and the water infrastructure remains as it is. The Austin suburbs Leander and Cedar Park were previously on that list, but were removed when officials determined they'd been included erroneously.

Even if everything works and Groesbeck is able to pump water from the upper Navasota in just over a week, that solution is a short term fix, which engineers believe will only last four months, Levingston said. On Nov. 8, the city council approved a contract to hire an engineer from R.W. Harden who will look for water wells, which will offer a more permanent solution to the imminent vulnerability of Groesbeck%u2019s single-source surface water system.

In an article published in the Groesbeck Journal earlier today, Keith Tilley, Groesbeck director of public works, wrote that he is confident the city will find a solution before the clock runs out.

%u201CMake no mistake, the City of Groesbeck will find a solution to this crisis no matter what it takes," he said. "We may never experience another drought like this in our lifetime, but we have to be ready and assume it will. There are several other options that are not mentioned here today, but as far as I am concerned, running out of water is not on the list.%u201D



ouch
Developing sub-tropical Storm.


ST1.5 99L -- Atlantic

GFS phase diagram.


My conclusion is that 99L will continue to become better organized today, satellite loops reveal that the circulation is exposed, but becoming better defined. Based on this, I think that it is entirely possible 99L will be declared Sub-Tropical Storm Tammy, the 19th named storm of the season, later tonight.
...dosent look to be trending WEST at all.

click image fer da Loop dee Loop.





i knew that new vorticy would become larger, its spinning quite a bit faster then the one to its south rotatin around it. i see STS Tammy coming tomorrow morning, give er take
Folks this does not look good! Severe wx will ocur if this happens. Talk about a clash of heat and cold!





Quoting StormTracker2K:
Folks this does not look good! Severe wx will ocur if this happens. Talk about a clash of heat and cold!







GFS showing extremely cold air behind this system down into TX for Nov 27th-28th
looks like this outbreak will start in eastern TX then spread east across the gulf coast states (including C FL north) and move up in the mid Atlantic. Heres the mid Atlantic severe wx event here.



severe storms overriding cold air
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
700 am CST Monday Nov 21 2011


Short term...


In the immediate short term...expect the dense fog to become somewhat more widespread as we get closer to sunrise...and will leave the advisory in place.
Expect conditions to mix out by middle morning.

Temperatures should again warm quickly with high
temperatures similar to what was observed on Sunday.


California shortwave will continue to progress quickly eastward.

Models still exhibiting some spread on solutions. Best dynamics will be to the north of the area...but both GFS and NAM indicate a
weak secondary jet maximum moving eastward along Interstate 10 Tuesday afternoon and evening.

This will place the northern portions of the County Warning Area in an area of upper divergence. This combined with lifted indices of -2 to -4 and convective available potential energy of 1000-1500 during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday justifies the slight risk placed over the area by Storm Prediction Center.

Will continue precipitation chances from previous
forecast package...but will note that 06z NAM solution would indicate these probability of precipitation may be too high. Frontal boundary will clear our area by Wednesday morning with drier conditions.
That 540 line dips all the way down to Panama City, FL! This will be a sharpe frontal passage this weekend where many areas will go from severe wx with temps in the 70's then the front clears and temp plummet into the upper 30' or 40's.
Link to new blog
Scientific Forecaster Discussion
NWS Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Expanded Version (without abbreviations)Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
945 am EST Mon Nov 21 2011


Discussion...with the fog burning off very quickly this morning and
little in the way of residual cloudiness, we are well on our way to
a mostly sunny and warm day.

As mentioned in the prior afd, the record high temperatures for today are 82 at Apalachicola (set in 1994) and 83 at Tallahassee (set in 1994 and 1942).

With the earlier onset of insolation, these records could be in jeopardy.


Otherwise,
the current fcst is well on track and just made a few minor tweaks
to the grids, mainly over the coastal waters.


&&


Aviation...through 12z tuesday)...with low clouds/fog burning off
this morning, expect VFR conditions to hold through the day with
light southeast winds. Early Tuesday morning we should see fog and
low clouds once again develop as influx of moisture and lift ahead
of approaching cold front spread into the region. May see LIFR
conditions around tlh and vld near sunrise.


&&




Tae watches/warnings/advisories...


Alabama...none.
Georgia...none.
Florida...none.
GM...none.


&&


$$


Gould/Evans
Panama City, FL Forecast

Monday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 81F. Winds from the SSE at 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 68F. Winds from the South at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 79F. Winds from the WNW at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday Night

Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 mph shifting to the NNE after midnight.
Thursday

Clear. High of 73F. Winds from the NNE at 10 mph.
Thursday Night

Clear. Low of 55F. Winds from the NE at 5 mph shifting to the SSE after midnight.
Friday

Clear. High of 70F. Winds from the South at 10 mph.
Friday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 54F. Winds from the ESE at 10 mph.
Saturday

Overcast. High of 72F. Winds from the SE at 15 mph.
Saturday Night

Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening and rain after midnight. Low of 54F. Winds from the North at 15 mph shifting to the WSW after midnight. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.0 in. possible.
Sunday

Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then clear. High of 57F. Winds from the West at 20 mph.
Sunday Night

Clear. Low of 43F. Winds from the North at 15-20 mph.
man its quiet....
There are now 395 Giorni Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
ASCAT pass of 99L.

Quoting Patrap:
Panama City, FL Forecast

Monday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 81F. Winds from the SSE at 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 68F. Winds from the South at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 79F. Winds from the WNW at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday Night

Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 mph shifting to the NNE after midnight.
Thursday

Clear. High of 73F. Winds from the NNE at 10 mph.
Thursday Night

Clear. Low of 55F. Winds from the NE at 5 mph shifting to the SSE after midnight.
Friday

Clear. High of 70F. Winds from the South at 10 mph.
Friday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 54F. Winds from the ESE at 10 mph.
Saturday

Overcast. High of 72F. Winds from the SE at 15 mph.
Saturday Night

Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening and rain after midnight. Low of 54F. Winds from the North at 15 mph shifting to the WSW after midnight. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.0 in. possible.
Sunday

Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then clear. High of 57F. Winds from the West at 20 mph.
Sunday Night

Clear. Low of 43F. Winds from the North at 15-20 mph.


Wow! a high of 57 and these number will likely trend a lot lower as we get closer and models become more in agreement.


Thanks Patrap
86 with a dewpoint of 70 here in Orlando. As a result some popcorn showers and maybe a thunderstorm later.

Not too often you see popup thunderstorms in November..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not too often you see popup thunderstorms in November..


Yeah looks like some sort of seabreeze collision may happen from Tampa Bay south along the SW FL Coastline.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah looks like some sort of seabreeze collision may happen from Tampa Bay south along the SW FL Coastline.


Not surprising, temperatures have been running well above average with high humidity for over a week.
40 knots? Hmmm...

AL, 99, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 285N, 510W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting Neapolitan:
40 knots? Hmmm...

AL, 99, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 285N, 510W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0,


Renumber?
NHC says LLC better defined, forecast to strengthen from 1 PM update
There's a warm front stretched from Tampa to Cape Canaveral moving N. Maybe the reason for these pop up showers.

Kenneth up to 75 knots:

EP, 13, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1101W, 75, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 15, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,
I've had .17" from the showers along ECFL so far..

Sadly Windsat is down again..

Oceansat had a nice pass of 99L..

Quoting RitaEvac:


GFS showing extremely cold air behind this system down into TX for Nov 27th-28th


I thought someone else would see that too.

On and off snow for central US. or is the cold layer too shallow/narrow aloft?
Oh, Aaaangellllla! I know you're out there! This Saturday @ Bobby Dodds Stadium.....
45. MTWX
Timing for Severe weather tomorrow across Mississippi.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


2001, just in time for my dad to be in the pentagon when it was hit...

BTW he's okay, didn't mean to send out the wrong message.
Wow that's scary, glad to hear he's okay
Strong Category 1 hurricane status...approaching Category 2 status.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Groesbeck,TX Nearly Out of Water, Hopes to Build Pipeline

Since August, city officials in Groesbeck have known that if they couldn't stop the Navasota River, the community's sole water, from drying up, the town would be without water by Thanksgiving. After a solution devised last week failed, the city now hopes to scramble to build a new pipeline before the water runs out.

High summer temperatures and the statewide drought have caused the Navasota River to evaporate faster than it can be replenished. Last week, the city attempted to solve the problem by purchasing and pumping water from a nearby rock quarry into Jack%u2019s Creek, which feeds into the Navasota, and ultimately, into the city's water treatment plant at the end of Fort Parker Lake. The quarry water managed to get down Jack%u2019s Creek, but the effort was abandoned after the dry and thirsty bed of Fort Parker Lake absorbed most of the quarry water before it made it to the treatment plant.

Yesterday, the Groesbeck city council approved a plan to build a 3.3 mile pipeline from a more water-abundant upper region of the Navasota River to Groesbeck%u2019s water treatment plant. But building the three-mile pipeline will take time %u2014about eight days %u2014 and will be costly. The city will continue sending water from the rock quarry through Jack's Creek and into the river to avoid further depleting the Navasota, but the upper region from which Groesbeck will pump is fuller than the other bodies of water involved, especially Fort Parker Lake. If all goes according to plan, Groesbeck will pay Godwin Pumps $80,000 to build the pipeline and $35,600 per month in rent, Groesbeck Mayor Jackie Levingston said.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality approved the plan, but Groesbeck is still waiting on the approval of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. A department representative is scheduled to visit Groesbeck tomorrow morning, before construction of the pipeline begins.

"We%u2019ve done a lot of pre-clearance and don%u2019t foresee anything going wrong with the plan,%u201D Levingston said. But if the plan doesn%u2019t work, Groesbeck will resort to building a different pipeline from the quarry to the treatment plant, which is projected to take three weeks, though the city already has the necessary clearances for this option.

The Tribune thanks our Supporting Sponsors

If Groesbeck runs out of water before that second pipeline option is completed, it will be forced to truck water in from the rock quarry. Since water consumption in Groesbeck has dropped, a result of its dire straits, Levingston hopes the city will be able to make the current supply last longer than the initial Thanksgiving projection, especially if the second, three-week pipeline project is required.

%u201CWe%u2019ve got so many people involved with this process that things change every hour. People are coming together in such a wonderful way,%u201D said City Administrator Martha Stanton. "That%u2019s positive, and we need something positive.%u201D

Groesbeck is one of a small number of Texas communities on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality%u2019s %u201Chigh priority%u201D water list, which identifies cities and towns that could run out of water within 180 days if the drought persists and the water infrastructure remains as it is. The Austin suburbs Leander and Cedar Park were previously on that list, but were removed when officials determined they'd been included erroneously.

Even if everything works and Groesbeck is able to pump water from the upper Navasota in just over a week, that solution is a short term fix, which engineers believe will only last four months, Levingston said. On Nov. 8, the city council approved a contract to hire an engineer from R.W. Harden who will look for water wells, which will offer a more permanent solution to the imminent vulnerability of Groesbeck%u2019s single-source surface water system.

In an article published in the Groesbeck Journal earlier today, Keith Tilley, Groesbeck director of public works, wrote that he is confident the city will find a solution before the clock runs out.

%u201CMake no mistake, the City of Groesbeck will find a solution to this crisis no matter what it takes," he said. "We may never experience another drought like this in our lifetime, but we have to be ready and assume it will. There are several other options that are not mentioned here today, but as far as I am concerned, running out of water is not on the list.%u201D

Damn that picture scared the hell out of me lol

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

no major hurricane now???
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
no major hurricane now???


(From the discussion)

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

no major hurricane now???
no, why would it be a major hurricane now?

edit, or did you mean the forecast no longer calls for a major hurricane? Answer is in their forecast discussion.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn that picture scared the hell out of me lol



My first impression was a person turned to volcanic ash, like those entombed during a lava flow
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn that picture scared the hell out of me lol


Same here
I was like
"what the hell?"
Good Afternoon. 99L nearing Subtropical Storm status.

Forecast tracks:
58. DDR
Good evening all
Major flooding has hit parts of north-west Trinidad for the 2nd time in 3 days,this is largely due to deforestation, poor drainage and infrastructure.
Thunderstorms trying to make it to the W Coast of FL.

Getting close to Subtropical Storm status...I'd give it 70% or 80% at the 7PM EST TWO.

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 395 Giorni Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
Doom day? ;-)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wow that's scary, glad to hear he's okay


Thanks, was kinda young to understand the magnitude of the situation at the time.
Kennith the sennith.Ha ha.Get it?.Because he formed so late in the season and that's not usuala and...okay I'll stop torturing you all with my bad jokes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Kennith the sennith.Ha ha.Get it?.Because he formed so late in the season and that's not usuala and...okay I'll stop torturing you all with my bad jokes.


I can never get enough of your bad jokes wash ;)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I can never get enough of your bad jokes wash ;)
Adds a different tone to the blog :).And since the humorous bloggers have been long gone and banned someones gotta feel the shoe.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Getting close to Subtropical Storm status...I'd give it 70% or 80% at the 7PM EST TWO.

If it doesn't become frontal in nature. I think that's what the NHC is going to be the most conservative about. They've mentioned it many times before.
AL992011 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Loop

..click image for Loop

any1 seen MississippiWX lately?
Quoting SPLbeater:
any1 seen MississippiWX lately?

Not in a long time.
Kenneth is looking well.



Amazingly, there has not been a major hurricane in the world since Jova back in early October (Rina technically never officially made it to 115mph so she doesn't count).
Quoting washingtonian115:
Adds a different tone to the blog :).And since the humorous bloggers have been long gone and banned someones gotta feel the shoe.


Humor OK. Foot Fetish NOT.
Quoting yqt1001:
Kenneth is looking well.



Amazingly, there has not been a major hurricane in the world since Jova back in early October (Rina technically never officially made it to 115mph so she doesn't count).

Kenneth is likely a Category 2 hurricane at this time.
Quoting SPLbeater:
any1 seen MississippiWX lately?
No I was wondering where he was yesterday.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Humor OK. Foot Fetish NOT.
Eh hem.Why do some hurricanes go to New england in the summer?.To beat the heat.Lol.Get it hurricanes are like big heat machines and their running away from themselfs.I should stop right here shouldn't I.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Eh hem.Why do some hurricanes go to New england in the summer?.To beat the heat.Lol.Get it hurricanes are like big heat machines and their running away from themselfs.I should stop right here shouldn't I.


If you have to explain the joke usually thats not a good sign ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not in a long time.


well...i had enjoyed reading his blogs, his and yours were very nice(with tropics, of course)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If you have to explain the joke usually thats not a good sign ;)
Damn.I have to come up with better jokes.I think the one about Florida and Navada were the best one I've said.
Quoting yqt1001:
Kenneth is looking well.



Amazingly, there has not been a major hurricane in the world since Jova back in early October (Rina technically never officially made it to 115mph so she doesn't count).


Kenneth is looking very well organized. I think it may be near 115 mph major hurricane threshold...


I just thought of this....
Kenneth might become a the strongest hurricane in the Epac this year....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Kenneth is looking very well organized. I think it may be near 115 mph major hurricane threshold...


I just thought of this....
Kenneth might become a the strongest hurricane in the Epac this year....

No.
Holding at 60%; probably cause they are not sure whether or not it will intensify into a frontal low pressure area oe a Subtropical storm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND STILL
HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EITHER A FRONTAL LOW OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Holding at 60%; probably cause they are not sure whether or not it will intensify into a frontal low pressure area oe a Subtropical storm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND STILL
HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EITHER A FRONTAL LOW OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN

Its probably STS right now, like you pointed out they are just makeing sure it doesnt go compleatly frontal, if it doesnt and gets upgraded they will probably point out it was an STS earlyer than when originally updated during the post season. Ummm, did I confuse anyone else cause, I just got pretty confused by myself...
21/1745 UTC 28.5N 51.1W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
21/1145 UTC 26.8N 51.2W ST1.5 99L
21/0545 UTC 25.9N 52.0W TOO WEAK 99L
20/2345 UTC 23.6N 52.5W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
20/1745 UTC 23.4N 53.1W TOO WEAK 99L
20/1145 UTC 23.0N 53.8W ST1.5 99L

Anyone see a pattern here???? LOL
Has anyone looked at Kenneth lately? Looks like his eye has popped out and is here to stay...



Very pretty storm if I might say.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Damn.I have to come up with better jokes.I think the one about Florida and Navada were the best one I've said.


Knock, knock.
Cat 2 Kenneth, now the strongest storm ever recorded so late in the season in the EPAC:

EP, 13, 2011112200, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1113W, 90, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 30, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

Incredible...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Cat 2 Kenneth, now the strongest storm ever recorded so late in the season in the EPAC:

EP, 13, 2011112200, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1113W, 90, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 30, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

Incredible...

105 mph...Wow.
The sun is setting on Category 2 hurricane Kenneth, an exceptionally beautiful cyclone and the strongest tropical system to form so late in the season within the Eastern Pacific.











im BORED
WSI (Weather Services International)forecast a warmer than average winter for the south central and southeastern states but colder than average for most of the northern and western US.


read the full story on the link below


Link
It's Bushes fault Hurricane Kenneth is so strong this late in the season.

Incredible, Global Warming, recession, Tarp, Stimulus,
Katrina, Poor ole President Bush it's all his fault.

Ya know who never is blamed for anything these day?

ONE GUESS?


notice location of kenneth also notice a very cold equatoratorial water temp.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has just gained another system, making it the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, tied with the seasons of 2010, 1995, and 1887.

No, I'm not talking about 99L ("Tammy") or the system that affected Florida last month. It is a new storm that was identified between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.
96. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has just gained another system, making it the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, tied with the seasons of 2010, 1995, and 1887.

No, I'm not talking about 99L ("Tammy") or the system that affected Florida last month. It is a new storm that was identified between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.


?? ..
u talking about the well developed invest they didnt name in july or august?
woaah when/where

@tropical
Kenneth is obviously a very beautiful 105-110mph hurricane. Could become a major hurricane by tomorrow.


Quoting SLU:


?? ..
u talking about the well developed invest they didnt name in july or august?

No.

Do you remember Invest 96L? It formed north of Bermuda and looked exactly like Franklin and Cindy, but its center became exposed shortly after formation? That one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has just gained another system, making it the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, tied with the seasons of 2010, 1995, and 1887.

No, I'm not talking about 99L ("Tammy") or the system that affected Florida last month. It is a new storm that was identified between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

Where did you find this information?
yea linkitup
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Where did you find this information?

"Thanks to a reanalysis of storms that already have formed this year, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to a hurricane. The system emerged in Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico on Sept. 11.

The center also has upgraded a short-lived disturbance, which formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in early September, to a tropical storm. That system will remain unnamed, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Forecasters at the hurricane center routinely restudy storm data to ensure their initial estimates of a system's strength and status are correct."

Link
104. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

Do you remember Invest 96L? It formed north of Bermuda and looked exactly like Franklin and Cindy, but its center became exposed shortly after formation? That one.


right, right

I thought it was earlier in the season. It look very similar it not better than the other storms that formed in its exact location.

Can you post the official word?

I also see that NATE was upgraded to a hurricane in the post season analysis.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

Do you remember Invest 96L? It formed north of Bermuda and looked exactly like Franklin and Cindy, but its center became exposed shortly after formation? That one.

Oh yeah! I can remember that one.
Quoting SLU:


right, right

I thought it was earlier in the season. It look very similar it not better than the other storms that formed in its exact location.

Can you post the official word?

I also see that NATE was upgraded to a hurricane in the post season analysis.

See my previous comment before this one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"Thanks to a reanalysis of storms that already have formed this year, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to a hurricane. The system emerged in Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico on Sept. 11.

The center also has upgraded a short-lived disturbance, which formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in early September, to a tropical storm. That system will remain unnamed, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Forecasters at the hurricane center routinely restudy storm data to ensure their initial estimates of a system's strength and status are correct."

Link

Well, I didn't expect that.
Good Night everyone.
interesting enough that is great to know but umm jose was a chiuaua
Quoting Ameister12:

Oh yeah! I can remember that one.

There ya go.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"Thanks to a reanalysis of storms that already have formed this year, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to a hurricane. The system emerged in Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico on Sept. 11.

The center also has upgraded a short-lived disturbance, which formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in early September, to a tropical storm. That system will remain unnamed, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Forecasters at the hurricane center routinely restudy storm data to ensure their initial estimates of a system's strength and status are correct."

Link

Very interesting. Thanks for the info.

Have you happen to hear if they're going to add the Florida Tropical Storm?
Quoting Ameister12:

Very interesting. Thanks for the info.

Have you happen to hear if they're going to add the Florida Tropical Storm?

Not sure yet.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Humor OK. Foot Fetish NOT.


LMFAO Shen!!
After looking at this, Sean may have been a hurricane for 6-12 hours. A lot of changes this post-season seems likely. I guess it shows the nature of the storms this year, always borderline something (whether it's borderline hurricane/major hurricane or borderline even existing).
i think we could see a lot more name storm added this year
Another image of 94L(*).

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Another image of 94L(*).




wil they upgrade 94L like they did 96L?
So 19-7-3. And if 99L can make, 20-7-3. And if the Florida storm is designated, 21-7-3? Cool...
Quoting Tazmanian:



wil they upgrade 94L like they did 96L?

I got it mixed up...The image I posted is of 94L, which was what was upgraded, not any of the 96L's.
Quoting Ameister12:

Oh yeah! I can remember that one.


So, we're really at 19 storms for the season? And the unnamed would have been Lee?Maria? ...I personally dislike unnamed storms, cause they mess with the order--2005 for instance- imagine if Wilma was Alpha like it should have been?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I got it mixed up...The image I posted is of 94L, which was what was upgraded, not any of the 96L's.



oh ok i new that was a TS all a long
just read PDF file for 'Hurricane' Nate. very good analysis by NHC, nice decision to upgrade. Ships and oil rigs can make a difference!
TropicalAnalystwx13 do you think the 1st 90L will be upgrade
Quoting Tazmanian:
TropicalAnalystwx13 do you think the 1st 90L will be upgrade

Refresh my memory...?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 111.8W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Refresh my memory...?



i think it was in may
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I got it mixed up...The image I posted is of 94L, which was what was upgraded, not any of the 96L's.


are you POSITIVE, lol. i want to add it to my tracking map...if you have the coordinates of where it was classified, please share =P
Quoting SPLbeater:


are you POSITIVE, lol. i want to add it to my tracking map...if you have the coordinates of where it was classified, please share =P


The NHC has not written a report on it as of yet, but when they do the coordinates will be there.
Quoting SPLbeater:


are you POSITIVE, lol. i want to add it to my tracking map...if you have the coordinates of where it was classified, please share =P

This is from Best Track:

Link

There it goes...tammy is on her way, look at the convection wrapping around the center...
131. j2008
22/0000 UTC 12.9N 111.2W T5.0/5.0 KENNETH -- East Pacific
21/2345 UTC 28.9N 50.6W ST1.5 99L -- Atlantic
The Estamates, havnt seen them posted so I will, so 99L is back to subtropical again.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think it was in may

Anyone of these?

April 22


May 23


June 1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is from Best Track:

Link



BIG thanks man. just what i needed!

Quoting Tazmanian:



i think it was in may
Actually it was in March. And no, I doubt it.
99l: Frontal or Subtropical
Architect of Reactor 3 warns of massive hydrovolcanic explosion
Posted by Mochizuki on November 19th, 2011 · 67 Comments

Architect of Fukushima Daiichi Reactor 3, Uehara Haruo, the former president of Saga University had an interview on 11/17/2011.

In this interview, he admitted Tepco’s explanation does not make sense, and that the China syndrome is inevitable.

He stated that considering 8 months have passed since 311 without any improvement, it is inevitable that melted fuel went out of the container vessel and sank underground, which is called China syndrome.



He added, if fuel has reaches a underground water vein, it will cause contamination of underground water, soil contamination and sea contamination. Moreover, if the underground water vein keeps being heated for long time, a massive hydrovolcanic explosion will be caused.

He also warned radioactive debris is spreading in Pacific Ocean. Tons of the debris has reached the Marshall Islands as of 11/15/2011.
Quoting Ameister12:
99l: Frontal or Subtropical

50% of both, IMO.
Quoting Ameister12:

Anyone of these?

April 22


May 23


June 1




i think the could all get upgraded
MAN!!i have turned busy in the last hour!!LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
California Dreamin' ?


Impressive.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Impressive.
145. j2008
Looking for Kenneth to go up to 115 tonight, and 99L to stay at 60%, slight possibility of 50% or 70%. If structures improve and the circulation becomes more prominant the STS Tammy tomorrow afternoon, like the NHC has been saying so yea I totaly agree. Any feedback??
Quoting j2008:
Looking for Kenneth to go up to 115 tonight, and 99L to stay at 60%, slight possibility of 50% or 70%. If structures improve and the circulation becomes more prominant the STS Tammy tomorrow afternoon, like the NHC has been saying so yea I totaly agree. Any feedback??


Sounds about right.
147. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:
Tropical Storm Kenneth formed over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific, and appears poised to intensify into a hurricane later today or on Tuesday.


dr m all way dos this he update his blog with out looking at the nhc site for new info on top of this blog it sould say hurricane Kenneth not TS Kenneth and the 2nd line needs to be re move has it is now a hurricane


i all so find it vary annyouing when he dos this has well all ways look at the nhc site for new info on storms be for updateing the blog



Sir Dr Masters has a life and a job outside of his blog, and he isn't always on. I'm sure in most cases he researches and prepares his blogs hours, if not a day in advance in some cases. Luckily for us, the members of the site are free to keep his blog updated on the weather news of the day.
Re: the quote shown in 147...

Dr. Masters above blog now reads:

Tropical Storm Kenneth formed over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific, and intensified into a hurricane late this morning. We are well past the date for the usual formation of the season's last storm,...
149. j2008
Well I'm out, Keep an eye on Kenneth and 99L make sure they dont get to much more wild. LOL Night everyone.
Fresh Oceansat of 99L.. Somewhat elongated surface low, but I wouldn't say frontal in nature at this time.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh Oceansat of 99L.. Somewhat elongated surface low, but I wouldn't say frontal in nature at this time.


Exactly. It doesn't look frontal at all.
Quoting Chicklit:
I'm so glad


Nice!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sounds about right.


I think it may go 115-120.
since it went 85-105 in this adv
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I think it may go 115-120.
since it went 85-105 in this adv


Doing a blog on it, and after looking at it more closely, I think 125 mph is likely.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Architect of Reactor 3 warns of massive hydrovolcanic explosion
Posted by Mochizuki on November 19th, 2011 %uFFFD 67 Comments

Architect of Fukushima Daiichi Reactor 3, Uehara Haruo, the former president of Saga University had an interview on 11/17/2011.

In this interview, he admitted Tepco%u2019s explanation does not make sense, and that the China syndrome is inevitable.

He stated that considering 8 months have passed since 311 without any improvement, it is inevitable that melted fuel went out of the container vessel and sank underground, which is called China syndrome.



He added, if fuel has reaches a underground water vein, it will cause contamination of underground water, soil contamination and sea contamination. Moreover, if the underground water vein keeps being heated for long time, a massive hydrovolcanic explosion will be caused.

He also warned radioactive debris is spreading in Pacific Ocean. Tons of the debris has reached the Marshall Islands as of 11/15/2011.


While the situation at Fukushima remains dangerous, and the Japanese government will continue to lie like rugs, there does need to be some perspective here.

Between 1946 ands 1962, The United States conducted at least 105 atmospheric nuclear tests at the Pacific Proving grounds, in the mid Pacific. During this time, at least 210 megatons of nuclear bombs were set off, and total is probably much higher, since these are only ones the US has admitted to blowing up. During that time, there was extensive fallout all over the Pacific, with much of it drifting over North America. Some Pacific Islanders suffered illness and death from radioactive poisoning, and it's reasonable to suppose that there was a low-level, long term increase of blood cancers in North America as well. While, in retrospect, this was a horrible thing to do, we didn't kill all life in the Pacific and obviously didn't directly kill very many people who weren't close to the drop zones. The very worst case scenario for Fukushima is a release equal to about a three megaton bomb. Won't be a good thing if you live in northern Japan, but it's not going to kill us all either. Many more people die each year in Japan from radioactive gases from coal fired power plants than have or likely will die from this one reactor.
Keep all of us in the southern Plains and deep South in your prayers tomorrow. It looks like we are headed for a bad outbreak of storms, with some tornados almost inevitable. It was 83 degress in Montgomery today (which broke the old record by two degree) and it's stil 69 here now. All the ingedients are in place for trouble. The only saving grace is that the models are slowing down the front, which means storms may not reach central Alabama until dark, much better than the heat of the day. I know Kenneth is really interesting, but the risks closer to home have my full attention.
Quoting sar2401:
Keep all of us in the southern Plains and deep South in your prayers tomorrow. It looks like we are headed for a bad outbreak of storms, with some tornados almost inevitable. It was 83 degress in Montgomery today (which broke the old record by two degree) and it's stil 69 here now. All the ingedients are in place for trouble. The only saving grace is that the models are slowing down the front, which means storms may not reach central Alabama until dark, much better than the heat of the day. I know Kenneth is really interesting, but the risks closer to home have my full attention.


I would think nocturnal thunderstorms are actually more dangerous.
Record rain floods outback.

Uluru to northwestern New South Wales has been flooded by some of the heaviest spring rain on record, cutting off some towns.

Tibooburra, in far northwestern NSW has amassed more than 80mm(3.15in) in 36 hours, its heaviest rain in four years. Falls of up to 100mm(3.94in) have also fallen in southern parts of the Northern Territory, including 90mm(3.54in) at Uluru.

This amount of rain is very unusual for this time of year, it is more typical of summer and early autumn, when moisture in the air is at its highest.

Tibooburra's 80mm(3.15in) is its heaviest November rain on record. Near Alice Springs, Curtin Springs and Jervois have both broken spring records with 50mm(1.97in) in a day and 90mm(3.54in) in two days.

Rain has now cleared from the Alice Springs district and is about to clear from far northwestern NSW as a low pressure trough edges slowly east.

This trough will continue to bring steady and heavy rain to central and northern NSW and western and southern Queensland as it slowly tracks east over the next four or five days. By Sunday some places will pick up well over 100mm(3.94in), most likely between about Roma, Tamworth and the Sunshine Coast. Much of this area has had a dry start to spring, now flooding is on the cards.

- Weatherzone



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE-FORCE WINDS...STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

no tammy :(
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE-FORCE WINDS...STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

no tammy :(


Oh well.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I would think nocturnal thunderstorms are actually more dangerous.


They are in places like Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Texas where that's true, but even squall lines in Alabama seem to have a strong diurnal component and tend to diminish somewhat after dark. The stange thing is that storms can remain very strong right up to the Mississippi/Alabama state line and then fall apart as they get here, in central Alabama. I have no idea why, but I've witnessed it many times.
Quoting sar2401:


They are in places like Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Texas where that's true, but even squall lines in Alabama seem to have a strong diurnal component and tend to diminish somewhat after dark. The stange thing is that storms can remain very strong right up to the Mississippi/Alabama state line and then fall apart as they get here, in central Alabama. I have no idea why, but I've witnessed it many times.


Stay safe, at any rate!
Well, my report for TD10 is done. Furnishing Jose's now:

Tropical Depression Ten

August 25 - August 27

Tropical Depression Ten was a tropical depression that dissipated over the eastern Atlantic without becoming a tropical storm.

A well-defined tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on August 22. The wave produced modest pressure falls at Praia in the Cape Verde Islands as it passed south of the archipelago. By 0300 UTC August 25, the low was sufficiently well-organized to be considered a tropical depression while centered about 500 miles west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands. The synoptic environment was characterized by easterly to southeasterly vertical shear and dry air, both factors which appear to have arrested significant development of the tropical cyclone. Late on August 26, westerly shear increased as the cyclone moved northwest. Deep convection ceased near 0000 UTC August 27, and the depression appears to have dissipated at that time while located about 680 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE-FORCE WINDS...STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE-FORCE WINDS...STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
confidence has dropped some
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well, my report for TD10 is done. Furnishing Jose's now:

Tropical Depression Ten

August 25 - August 27

Tropical Depression Ten was a tropical depression that dissipated over the eastern Atlantic without becoming a tropical storm.

A well-defined tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on August 22. The wave produced modest pressure falls at Praia in the Cape Verde Islands as it passed south of the archipelago. By 0300 UTC August 25, the low was sufficiently well-organized to be considered a tropical depression while centered about 500 miles west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands. The synoptic environment was characterized by easterly to southeasterly vertical shear and dry air, both factors which appear to have arrested significant development of the tropical cyclone. Late on August 26, westerly shear increased as the cyclone moved northwest. Deep convection ceased near 0000 UTC August 27, and the depression appears to have dissipated at that time while located about 680 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands.
thanks kori, nice summary mang
Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks kori, nice summary mang


Thanks, but I still don't see how I'm going to have this done by the December 1 deadline. lol
0z ECMWF has a bomb slamming into Alaska at the end of the loop (240 hrs)

Long ways out, but it goes to show Alaska will be having a pretty rough winter with this cold PDO
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks, but I still don't see how I'm going to have this done by the December 1 deadline. lol
well push it back if you want, it's your own deadline, right?
Quoting TomTaylor:
well push it back if you want, it's your own deadline, right?


Yeah, but I had last year's blog finished at the same time. The reason is because it coincides with the end of the season.

Then again, I wasn't working 30 hours a week last year, either...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, but I had last year's blog finished at the same time. The reason is because it coincides with the end of the season.

Then again, I wasn't working 30 hours a week last year, either...
Nice dude, making stacks, what is your job title? Or what do you do for work?


And I remember at the start of the season when I was planning on doing a blog everyday. Glad I stopped, it would take me a solid hour and a half to get all my thoughts down and by that time satellite images had changed, new models were out, etc etc, it took way too much time for me to do.

One thing I might do just before the beginning of next season is my explanation/educational series of blogs I had planned on writing this year but never got around to finishing. You can read the first and only one written so far here
Quoting TomTaylor:
Nice dude, making stacks, what is your job title? Or what do you do for work?


And I remember at the start of the season when I was planning on doing a blog everyday. Glad I stopped, it would take me a solid hour and a half to get all my thoughts down and by that time satellite images had changed, new models were out, etc etc, it took way too much time for me to do.

One thing I might do just before the beginning of next season is my explanation/educational series of blogs I had planned on writing this year but never got around to finishing. You can read the first and only one written so far here


Meh. Lots of my blogs become obsolete as soon as I release them. Just because the models or satellite pictures change after you finish a blog, doesn't mean you have to go back and rewrite it. We assume people have enough competency to check the time the blog was written.

I read your blog back then, btw. I liked it a lot, and do hope you continue.

I work in the dairy at Wal Mart. I don't really like it, but I'm getting 8.25 an hour, which is good for someone with no bills. Gonna use that money to go to Ohio to visit a friend next year. Me, my dad, and brother are gonna go. Then when I get back, I'm going to try and find a job somewhere else and get me a car.
Surprisingly enough--or perhaps not--Kenneth has matured into a major Cat 3 hurricane, and he's expected to make it to Cat 4 status by this afternoon (although, frankly, he looks like he's already there). As I said earlier: incredible.

KENNETH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. THE EYE HAS WARMED AND
BECOME MORE DISTINCT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND GAINED
SYMMETRY...AND KENNETH NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A COMPACT MATURE
HURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE 90 KT AND 102 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...RECENT ADT VALUES AND A
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB REVEAL HIGHER ESTIMATES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 110 KT...AND THAT
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE
. THIS MAKES KENNETH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE
LATEST ONE TO HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
SATELLITE ERA.

INIT 22/0900Z 13.0N 112.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 13.0N 114.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.2N 116.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.6N 117.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 15.1N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 16.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RSMC Miami: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH (EP132011)
1:00 AM PST November 22 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: KENNETH Rapidly Intensifies Into A Major Category Three Hurricane

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Kenneth (957 hPa) located at 13.0N 112.8W or 620 NM south southwest of the Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.2N 116.1W - 110 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
48 HRS: 14.2N 119.4W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.1N 122.8W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Cat 3 Kenneth, Foot of snow for me, and an unnamed tropical storm... cool. Since no one has jumped on it im unofficially naming the unnamed storm Tropical Storm Dragod! haha
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO OBTAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND CONTINUE PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Great googly-ooglies!
That's one seriously bad-a$$ storm.
Beautiful. Good thing it's gonna stay out to sea!

Now...Where's my great big cold front?
125mph Hurricane Kenneth on its way to becoming a category 4. Another amazing Pacific hurricane.
Tammy likely isn't going to happen.

When Kenneth finally weakens and dissipates, someone needs to say: "OMG!!! You killed Kenny!! You *******!!!!"
Looking at Dvorak imagery, the clear has become clear and continues to warm, and the cloud tops in the eye wall continue to cool and expand. Judging by Dvorak imagery alone, I believe we have a Category 4 hurricane on our hands.

Ugh! What a miserable day. At least it's the last day of school for the week. :D
Wow...ADT numbers (Raw, Adjusted, and Final) all range from 120 knots (145 mph) to 130 knots (150 mph).
Kenneth is a scary hurricane...glad its not going to impact any land areas anytime soon.



Sorry for the rapid fire posts, everyone. XD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looking at Dvorak imagery, the clear has become clear and continues to warm, and the cloud tops in the eye wall continue to cool and expand. Judging by Dvorak imagery alone, I believe we have a Category 4 hurricane on our hands.

I believe you are correct. And so does ATCF. And then some; they've got Kenneth pegged at 125 knots (145 mph), just 11 knots under Cat 5 status:

EP, 13, 2011112212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1134W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 25, 20, 35, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,
Quoting Neapolitan:

I believe you are correct. And so does ATCF:

EP, 13, 2011112212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1134W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 25, 20, 35, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

Amazing..
Another amazing EPac hurricane. Is there any chance that Kenneth becomes a category 5?

Stadium effect?
Cooler waters not far away. In 36 to 48 hours expect this to weaken. Amazing to see such a strong hurricane well after their season is over.

Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected here in C FL this afternoon. Temp is 69 right now with 100% humidity.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Cooler waters not far away. In 36 to 48 hours expect this to weaken. Amazing to see such a strong hurricane well after their season is over.


It will probably strengthen just a little more to attain a peak around 155 mph. There is an outside chance that Kenneth becomes a Category 5 hurricane.
Melbourne picked up .73 yesterday evening did you get any of this Skyepony?
I see Kennith is a monster, is he an annular cane?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I see Kennith is a monster, is he an annular cane?

No.
maannn....99L dissapoints me. i quit watching it to sleep and a yellow circle in the morning, boo!!!
Some thunderstorms this morning in the Houston area.

205. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:

I believe you are correct. And so does ATCF. And then some; they've got Kenneth pegged at 125 knots (145 mph), just 11 knots under Cat 5 status:

EP, 13, 2011112212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1134W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 25, 20, 35, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,


November 22nd?
In case any of you missed last night's talk, the 2011 season is now 19-7-3 (tied with 2010, 1995, and 1887 for total storms) after the NHC classified an early-September disturbance north of Bermuda as a tropical storm (which will remain unnamed).

2011 season suddenly gains a hurricane and a storm
Quoting Neapolitan:
In case any of you missed last night's talk, the 2011 season is now 19-7-3 (tied with 2010, 1995, and 1887 for total storms) after the NHC classified an early-September disturbance north of Bermuda as a tropical storm (which will remain unnamed).

2011 season suddenly gains a hurricane and a storm


Yeah I figured they would name that one. I believe that was 94L back in early Sept.
Who knows there could have been years like 2005 in terms of named storms back in the 18th century but no way to know as technology was not even near as advanced as it is now. That 1887 had likely more than 19 storms as classification & technology was no where near as what it is now.
48-years ago today...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
48-years ago today...


D:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I see Kennith is a monster, is he an annular cane?

I was thinking the same thing. He wants to be, but I'm not sure if he is. The proof will be once he hits cold water, if he weakens rapidly, then not annular.


Also, rip 99L and 2011 Atlantic season. There were a few interesting storms, and i finally got to experience one again (irene). Being in the northeast that doesn't happen too often. Last one (not including remnants) was 1997's Danny.

I have a question... Why the lack of gulf of Mexico storms in the past 6 years? In 2005 storm after storm got in there and blew up. Since then, only a few, and the ones that did make it stayed south into Mexico and didn't have much time to intensify. Don't get me wrong, It's a good thing, but growing up I remember the gulf as a hotspot, now It's not.
Quoting Neapolitan:
In case any of you missed last night's talk, the 2011 season is now 19-7-3 (tied with 2010, 1995, and 1887 for total storms) after the NHC classified an early-September disturbance north of Bermuda as a tropical storm (which will remain unnamed).

2011 season suddenly gains a hurricane and a storm


So, 19+ storms for the fourth time in sixteen years.

This season is now just one behind the Typhoon season of the west Pacific. Last year,the Atlantic beat it. Will it do so again? Probably not, but to be so close is impressive.
Quoting winter123:

I was thinking the same thing. He wants to be, but I'm not sure if he is. The proof will be once he hits cold water, if he weakens rapidly, then not annular.


Also, rip 99L and 2011 Atlantic season. There were a few interesting storms, and i finally got to experience one again (irene). Being in the northeast that doesn't happen too often. Last one (not including remnants) was 1997's Danny.

I have a question... Why the lack of gulf of Mexico storms in the past 6 years? In 2005 storm after storm got in there and blew up. Since then, only a few, and the ones that did make it stayed south into Mexico and didn't have much time to intensify. Don't get me wrong, It's a good thing, but growing up I remember the gulf as a hotspot, now It's not.


its not like the gulf is not a hotspot. since 2009 there has been persistent east coast troughing up to today so anything that came off africa usually went north of the islands. if something went into the carribean it had a chance to develop but didnt becuase last year there were no oppertunities to hit the US Gulf coast thanks to the Texas Ridge however in late august the ridge weakened and no storm took advantage
2008 in the GOM produced Gustav and Ike, and that was nuff.

There is also a site for determining the "Annular" status of all cyclones.


Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
JOHN A. KNAFF
NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado



ABSTRACT
Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be
significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones.

Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This
paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995–2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern–central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins.

Because annular hurricanes have a unique appearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time method of identifying these hurricanes is developed.

However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant
analysis. This algorithm is trained using a dependent dataset (1995–2003) that includes 11 annular hurricanes.

The resulting algorithm is then independently tested using datasets from the years 2004–06, which contained an additional three annular hurricanes. Results indicate that the algorithm is able to discriminate
annular hurricanes from tropical cyclones with intensities greater than 84 kt (43.2 m s1).

The probability of detection or hit rate produced by this scheme is shown to be 96% with a false alarm rate of 6%, based on 1363 six-hour time periods with a tropical cyclone with an intensity greater than 84 kt (1995–2006).
KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...STRONGEST LATE SEASON EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...



7:00 AM PST Tue Nov 22
Location: 12.7°N 113.9°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Quoting winter123:

I was thinking the same thing. He wants to be, but I'm not sure if he is. The proof will be once he hits cold water, if he weakens rapidly, then not annular.


Also, rip 99L and 2011 Atlantic season. There were a few interesting storms, and i finally got to experience one again (irene). Being in the northeast that doesn't happen too often. Last one (not including remnants) was 1997's Danny.

I have a question... Why the lack of gulf of Mexico storms in the past 6 years? In 2005 storm after storm got in there and blew up. Since then, only a few, and the ones that did make it stayed south into Mexico and didn't have much time to intensify. Don't get me wrong, It's a good thing, but growing up I remember the gulf as a hotspot, now It's not.


One theory is that the Atlantic track system has shifted to a 1950 type set-up (possibly related to PDO shift, but hard to say) which favours recurvature or east coast hits as opposed to Gulf coast storms.

That is not to say Gulf storms won't happen or they won't be dangerous. Audrey, for example, still formed in 1957.

Other aspects might be other cycles. QBO may have an influence, but that would only explain a two year period of non-activity within a certain area at best due to its fluctuations.

NAO would also be a factor and it's largely been negative or neutral the last two years (also is a factor why Europe's last two winters were so cold).

Maybe it's just natural variation.

Have to see how it plays out to see if it's a trend or just a blip. Just some thoughts to throw out there.
EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting Patrap:
EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


WHOA!
Look at the eye!
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...STRONGEST LATE SEASON EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...



7:00 AM PST Tue Nov 22
Location: 12.7°N 113.9°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb

Another historic weather extreme! It has been quite a year! I wonder what December has in store for us?
Quoting Chapelhill:

Another historic weather extreme! It has been quite a year! I wonder what December has in store for us?


maybe Tammy is waiting for December lol
New Frame 1500 UTC

227. MTWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON UNTIL 500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SELMA
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MS HAS INTENSIFIED
AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF LINE WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO...ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Melbourne picked up .73 yesterday evening did you get any of this Skyepony?


I ended with .51" yesterday, had .05" so far today..


Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I see Kennith is a monster, is he an annular cane?


Actually it is marginally annular.. I've seen them declared Annular when AHI=1 & for Kenneth that has been the case since 12:45am...

Here's the latest run..

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##