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Rare Japanese tornado kills 1, injures 48

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on May 07, 2012

A rare strong tornado ripped through Ibaraki Prefecture in eastern Japan 30 miles northeast of Tokyo on Sunday, killing a teenage boy, injuring 48 people, and damaging or destroying 890 buildings. The tornado carved a path of destruction 15 km long and 500 meters wide, said the Japan Meteorological Agency. The tornado was given a preliminary rating of F-2, with winds of 113 - 157 mph (Japan uses the traditional "F" scale to rate tornadoes, not the "EF" scale used in the U.S.) The tornado also damaged homes in a housing complex in Tsukuba where 20 people from seven families from Fukushima Prefecture had evacuated following the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, caused by the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011. I bet those families are feeling disaster-prone!


Video 1. A rare tornado in Japan hits approximately 30 miles northeast of Tokyo on May 6, 2012.

Japan's tornado climatology
Tornadoes are rare in Japan, due to the fact the nation is surrounded by ocean, which tends to stabilize the air. Between 1961 - 2010, an average of 15 tornadoes per year hit Japan, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Only four F-3 tornadoes have hit Japan. The most recent F-3 hit on November 7, 2006, in the Wakasa area of Saroma, Hokkaido. Nine people died and 26 were injured. Over 30 buildings, including a dwelling, warehouses and temporary structures were damaged or destroyed. No violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes have been recorded in Japan, according the Japan Meteorological Agency, though other sources list a December, 1990 tornado as having been an F-4. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has more details in his latest post, Deadliest Tornadoes. Only one F-2 tornado hit Japan in both 2010 and 2011. A 1997 study published in the Journal of Climate found that Japanese tornadoes occurred most frequently in September and least frequently in March, and that typhoons were responsible for about 20% of all the tornadoes. A list of Asian tornado outbreaks maintained at Wikipedia lists the deadliest Japanese tornado as one on 6 September, 1881, which killed 16 people.


Figure 1. Distribution of tornadoes in Japan, 1961 - 2010. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am in South Central Texas so far last 2 days a trace but it isnt 95 with heat index off the charts like yesterday.


Are you near Austin or San Antonio or further south?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am in South Central Texas so far last 2 days a trace but it isnt 95 with heat index off the charts like yesterday.


Buckle up, rains are coming for ya
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Are you near Austin or San Antonio or further south?


He's in Buda, just south of Austin
Quoting ScottLincoln:


My initial thought is to question this; what about other portions of the country with a higher density of cows... why is there not smog there? The midwest may not see inversions and light surface winds as often as places like the LA basin where this is more common due to topography, but it does happen. Typically during said "stagnate weather," the pollution tends to be ozone related.
I lived in LA for a number of years. Yes, there are a lot of cows--but the freeways and surface streets are packed with cars and trucks and buses 24 hours a day, every single one of them belching visible clouds of soot and/or invisible clouds of other things. Empirical evidence is empirical evidence--but I imagine further study may just show that recent bit of research to be off a bit. ;-)
Cape Coral is still dry as a bone and rainless as an interior room. Our City Council yesterday passed a stepped process for increasing water restrictions due to current drought. I saw gorgeous thunderstorms far off to our east yesterday evening, but the sea breeze to date has simply robbed us of what little rain has blessed Florida these last couple weeks.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Buckle up, rains are coming for ya


Hopefully that holds itself together to make it into SE Texas. I am thinking it will!
Quoting RitaEvac:


He's in Buda, just south of Austin
That area seems to have some sort of anti-rain force field thing going on. They've missed the last two rounds. Hopefully that changes today.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am in South Central Texas so far last 2 days a trace but it isnt 95 with heat index off the charts like yesterday.
Are you well south of San Antonio?  Looks as if this is building south and eastward.  


Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Hopefully that holds itself together to make it into SE Texas. I am thinking it will!


Thinking a Meso will push past San Antonio, and drive a line of storms eastward towards the coast later today/evening. Skies are sunny here in SE TX, atmosphere will be destabilizing and heating of day, and gulf inflow will fuel this system as it moves eastbound. Expect a gigantic line of storms on radar late today.
I was one of the few areas in all of SE TX yesterday that received 1.70" of rain from the sea breeze.
Pretty active out there at the moment.

Hail, Rain, and funnel clouds in St. Lucie, Indian River, and Martin county yesterday afternoon... Nothing here in Palm Beach county Florida
.
Maurice Sendak, the author of Where the Wild Things Are, has died.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Pretty active out there at the moment.




Falling apart
Quoting ILwthrfan:

Are you well south of San Antonio?  Looks as if this is building south and eastward.  


I am about 15 miles South of Austin Tx, that radar has looked like that the past 6 hours or so, the rains have not gotten any closer to me, they need it out West more than I do, they are or were still in the Worst Drought you can be in so let it rain there. I actually received .15 overnight giving me a 2 rainfall total of near 1 inch. I have relatives in Austin area that received nearly 4 inches of rain Saturday night which isnt that far from my house so these rains have been slow movers leaving some with alot of rain and others with little.
Quoting weatherh98:



Falling apart
northern section is fading (Austin/Waco area), but the southern group is actually intensifying.
Quoting jeffs713:
northern section is fading (Austin/Waco area), but the southern group is actually intensifying.


Check post 510
Quoting weatherh98:



Falling apart

The northern area is weakening probably due to a lack of instability, but I imagine that will change by later this afternoon.

Clear skies should be a big aid to atmospheric instability.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
Clear skies should be a big aid to atmospheric instability.



If we can keep it clear till 1-2PM, watch out, that line getting ready to be south of San Antonio is gonna explode and plow all the way to the coast
Quoting RitaEvac:


If we can keep it clear till 1-2PM, watch out, that line getting ready to be south of San Antonio is gonna explode and plow all the way to the coast


Don't know if it'll make it this far over. But clear skies we got. :)

Intel reports of Thursday night and Friday afternoon is the BIG event. Prodigious rainfall maker with very heavy rainfall coming for parts of TX. Red flags are up

Quoting jeffs713:
northern section is fading (Austin/Waco area), but the southern group is actually intensifying.


I agree
Imma go for sunshine in louisiana
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yeah, Texas! Bring on the rain. We love El Nino, except for the whole reduction of tropical activity thing.
When it rains it pours

Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, Texas! Bring on the rain. We love El Nino, except for the whole reduction of tropical activity thing.


Yeah I know it's great I picked up 3.54" yesterday here north of Orlando and storm clouds are starting to build again. Our only dry days over the next 14 are only Friday & Saturday as the TX system moves into FL Sunday afternoon thru next week so those 3" to 5" should expand further east as the system gets into HPC's 5 day timeframe.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
859 am CDT Tuesday may 8 2012


Sounding discussion...
no problems with the flight this morning. Sounding is relatively
drier than yesterday with p.W. Down to 1.35 inches. Moderately
moist up to 700mb then dry above 700mb conducive for wet
microbursts once a convective process gets underway. North winds
near the surface switches to southerly around 2800ft...essentially
cloud base level...easterly 6800-11kft...then west-northwest aloft. This
wind profile...though non-descript looking at first...is favorable
for downburst as initial convection GOES essentially vertical
before becoming influenced by anvil blow-off towards the southeast
over time this afternoon. Low level north flow will enhance
convergence once lake and sea breezes become established.


Ran chap program for convective integrity using maximum surface based
lift of 344k with a forecast maximum temperature of 89f yields Ricks
index 124...marginally severe with a 95% pop...precipitation
4... 7.85" for temperatures below 74f...probability severe
14%...gust potential 45kt/52 miles per hour...pea hail with a 65
vil...quarter hail at 71 vil...waterspout potential. These values
seem reasonable given the syoptic situation and will be the basis
for any advisory and warning issuances today. 24/rr

Long Term NOLA

Heading into tonight and tomorrow...the chance for more significant thunderstorm activity will go up dramatically...as a strong long wave trough axis and associated cold front move into the region.

A broad area of increased Omega values aloft in
advance of the approaching trough axis should support continued shower activity through the overnight hours. Heading into tomorrow...the surface front will begin to pull through the region. Ample deep layer moisture and noted by precipitable water values of around
1.75 inches and a continued unstable airmass along with weak shear values will allow for deep and slow moving convective cells to impact the region.

The biggest threat from any thunderstorm activity on Wednesday will be the potential for some locally heavy
rainfall which could lead to flooding issues. The cold front and associated heavy rain threat will finally begin to pull to the east by late Wednesday night.


A much drier airmass will quickly advect in behind the passing front and upper level trough axis for Thursday and Thursday night.

Some weak cold air advection will also take hold...allowing temperatures to fall back to more normal readings for this time of
year on Thursday.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Hail, Rain, and funnel clouds in St. Lucie, Indian River, and Martin county yesterday afternoon... Nothing here in Palm Beach county Florida
.


There was a funnel in West Boca last evening. I saw it on the news.
Texas Hill Country Weather Update


It's been raining steadily, and gently, in Kerr County (60 mile NW of San Antonio) all morning. Looks like it might continue most of the day. We need to get the aquifers replenished after what the drought did to us last year.

I regret not having weeded the garden or mowed the lawn yesterday before this all began.
Quoting NEFL:


Is it necessary to tell us 4 times in the span of 100 comments how much rain you got in one afternoon? Thats great you got 3.54 inches, but that only included an area of about a football field on the radar. These little popcorn storms arent going to end the drought here in FL Jeff9641.


The guy is enthusiastic about the weather. Give him a break. At least he's not constantly talking about off-topic things such as religion where Admin has to step in and axe it. I just don't see any reason to attack the guy over talking about weather. Sorry if it seems this came out of nowhere. You aren't the first to bash him for it and I finally got annoyed. If you don't like his posts, you can always ignore. Just saying. :-)

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am about 15 miles South of Austin Tx, that radar has looked like that the past 6 hours or so, the rains have not gotten any closer to me, they need it out West more than I do, they are or were still in the Worst Drought you can be in so let it rain there. I actually received .15 overnight giving me a 2 rainfall total of near 1 inch. I have relatives in Austin area that received nearly 4 inches of rain Saturday night which isnt that far from my house so these rains have been slow movers leaving some with alot of rain and others with little.
Yeah, that's' got to be frustrating.  I feel your pain.  The entire central part of our state nearly picked up 2 inches in the last week except for me, our county was about the only one on the map that stayed dry.   That complex to your southwest will be key for you today.  It's going to take a while before it gets into Austin if it does, if it can clear out any where your at, it will be a big bonus to seeing something later.
Quoting RitaEvac:
When it rains it pours


and that is a good thing. :)

Similar to how when it rains, it is wet outside.
Quoting jeffs713:

and that is a good thing. :)

Similar to how when it rains, it is wet outside.


When it's wet, it floods
Quoting MississippiWx:


The guy is enthusiastic about the weather. Give him a break. At least he's not constantly talking about off-topic things such as religion where Admin has to step in and axe it. I just don't see any reason to attack the guy over talking about weather. Sorry if it seems this came out of nowhere. You aren't the first to bash him for it and I finally got annoyed. If you don't like his posts, you can always ignore. Just saying. :-)


I think it's the same person and I agree it's getting old already.
540. LBAR
Is this something? From the Charleston, SC National Weather Service long-range discussion...

A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
APPEARS TO TRANSITION TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITHIN
AN AREA OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY.

.
542. NEFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think it's the same person and I agree it's getting old already.


Can we stick to weather please? You dont have to tell me how much rain you got yesterday though, i can scan the blog and find it many times. Any storms headed for your house on any model lately? Cant wait for you to hype every model this hurricane season RastaSteve!
Quoting LBAR:
Is this something? From the Charleston, SC National Weather Service long-range discussion...

A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
APPEARS TO TRANSITION TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITHIN
AN AREA OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY.



That's what I was mentioning in an earlier post as a low (non-tropical) is forecast to slide across the Gulf and then across N FL and up the eastern seaboard. Looks as if a very wet pattern will move in again across the SE US late Sunday into Monday.

You can see the track of the is low on the GFS 8 day precip accum.



Good morning all
545. NEFL
Quoting LBAR:
Is this something? From the Charleston, SC National Weather Service long-range discussion...

A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
APPEARS TO TRANSITION TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITHIN
AN AREA OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY.



Its a bit far out to put any stamp on it for approval, especially 6-7 days out. Heck yesterday i had a 70% chance of rain and got nothing, and that was the forecast for the day of and they couldnt even get it right. I expect the drought to continue in FL with a chance for pop storms but nothing of major significance. Looks to be mainly dry until the rainy season starts in June. I doubt it will start any earlier.
536) You didn't even get 2? Well over 6 to your SW. Should dry out enough to let them finish the soybeans with these lower temps and humidity + sunshine over next 4 days though. Not sure about low spot corn replant though - guess that'll depend on how much we get this weekend. Sure like the temps in the long range though, much more seasonable.
542. For the love of all that is holy... don't turn this blog into a running joke along the lines of the JFV insanity from a couple years ago.

While there are some things that some bloggers do that irritate me, calling them out and needling them constantly isn't the way to get things done. All it does is make you look like a bully, and get you ignored. If you have a problem with a person, talk to them about it via WUmail.


...."Do you remember, when we met?,...."



Uploaded by: jtrainman — Tuesday May 1, 2012 — Newport News, VA

www.wunderground.com/worldview
Quoting BahaHurican:
Everything's still very much unofficial, but looks like a "landslide" - as many as 30 seats to the opposition. At one point it was rumoured that the outgoing prime minister had lost his own seat, and his win has actually not as yet been confirmed.

So potentially a BIG change. However, tomorrow will tell the tale.

[BTW, this has nothing to do with whether The Bahamas will successfully challenge JA at next Carifta.... that is an issue that transcends politics.... lol]


Very similar to what happened in Jamaica. The present government, the opposition at the time, won 42 of the 63 seats in parliment
Quoting NEFL:
Is it necessary to tell us 4 times in the span of 100 comments how much rain you got in one afternoon?
Yeah, that's kinda like someone posting the HPC 5-day precipitation outlook map or the third time in just 12 comments (523, 525, 534)... ;-)
Quoting NEFL:
Heck yesterday i had a 70% chance of rain and got nothing, and that was the forecast for the day of and they couldnt even get it right.
I disagree that "they" got it wrong. Now, had you been given a 100% chance of rain and it failed to materialize, you'd be right. But a 70% chance of rain--or even a 99% chance--doesn't mean that every person in the forecast area will see rain.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:

It seems as if Texas will be getting some well needed rain
afternoon all checking in on lunch not bad on here today
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The situation in Guadeloupe is very bad as torrential rains have caused massive floodings and now the first death.

Link

That's very sad condolences to the family members of the victim
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning !

THE SUN IS SHINING BRIGHT AND CHEERFUL......

first time in a long time, too.

Hopefully you'll have good weather for atleast the next couple of days pottery
It's 11:16 AM here...Already 92.6 degrees with a heat index of 106...30% of a pop up...I'm getting to old for this heat..went and hired the neighbors son to cut the yard...LOL
NOAA just released its April summary. No real surprises; it's been warm:

--"Several warm periods across the contiguous U.S. during April brought the national average temperature to 55°F, 3.6°F above average, marking the third warmest April on record. These temperatures, when added with the first quarter and previous 11 months, calculate to the warmest year-to-date and 12-month periods since recordkeeping began in 1895."

--12 states experienced an April "Much Above Normal". An additional 26 were "Above Normal". The remainder were "Near Normal". None were "Below Normal"

Hot

--Interestingly enough: "Eight states — Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia — had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures. However, these temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month."

--"The 12 month period beginning May 2011 through April 2012, which includes several warm episodes for the country — second hottest summer, fourth warmest winter, and warmest March — was the warmest consecutive May-April year-long period for the contiguous United States. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period and an additional 19 states were top ten warm. The 12-month running average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 55.7°F, 2.8°F above the 20th century average.
"


latest sst temps atlantic basin may 8 2012
Looking at the SPC data, it seems like this event will be more SC Texas, and not as much SE Texas. CAPE is kinda "meh" (right now generally under 1000 in the Houston area), and CIN is in the high 100s (right at the edge of shutting off convection). Also LI is pretty unfavorable right now over SE TX.

That said... if it stays clear for a few more hours, the whole game is changed as the atmosphere will definitely become less stable. (the wildcard in all of this is RH)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


latest sst temps atlantic basin may 8 2012

The atlantic is really warming at the moment
Quoting NEFL:


Heck yesterday i had a 70% chance of rain and got nothing, and that was the forecast for the day of and they couldnt even get it right.


Precipitation probability for a given region can be defined as:

POP = [chance that precip will form] x [coverage of precip]

A 70% chance of rainfall could mean that there is a 70% of storms forming, but if they form, they are expected to have 100% coverage. It could be reverse. Or a combination. As such, you can see why such forecasts are difficult to verify.

There are three ways I know of to try and verify probability forecasts such as those.
1) Round off the POP to a yes or no answer (ex: 0-49% = no; 50-100% = yes) and then verify over a long period of time in a binary way.
2) Create a running score where a higher score is bad and a lower score is good; points are defined as the difference between the POP and the verification. 50% POP forecast with rainfall occurring would yield 50 points, 30% POP forecast would yield 70 points. 100% POP forecast with no rainfall would yield 100 points. This is used often by various forecasting contests.
3) Accumulate statistics for each POP category (10%, 20%, 30%, etc) and see if the corresponding occurrence of rain was the same (10%, 20%, 30%, respectively).

Without doing something like that, it really isnt correct to call one of those forecasts "wrong" or "right."
Quoting nigel20:

The atlantic is really warming at the moment
warming will be steady from here on out unless we get lots of cloudiness to surpress it but not likly
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
warming will be steady from here on out unless we get lots of cloudiness to surpress it but not likly

Agreed
Well, gotta give it to the GFS. They are persistent and why the precip charts, which I will not repost, :) seem to keep most of our rain off shore. I think.



The surface trough over the eastern Caribbean has been stationary over the past week are so

569. MahFL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
warming will be steady from here on out unless we get lots of cloudiness to surpress it but not likly


Winds also cool the sea.
Monster cell crossing the border into Texas south of Laredo.

Z4 73 dBZ 48,000 ft. 66 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 3.25 in. 21 knots WNW (284)
571. MTWX
Good Afternoon all!! Got all the way out to the NEXRAD this morning to find out the NWS wouldn't release it to us to do some work = waste of a good 1 1/2 hours of shift ;) Whats new in everyones neck of the woods?? Severe storms yesterday afternoon brought us some much needed rain, but there was a good amount of tree damage in the area to go along with it. Winds were 30-40 mph throughout the event with gusts in the mid 60s!!
A severe storm is about to cross the border south of Laredo.

With shear dropping over Florida looks like we should get some nice afternoon showers on the east coast. Almost looks like summertime.
Quoting MTWX:
Got all the way out to the NEXRAD this morning to find out the NWS wouldn't release it to us to do some work = waste of a good 1 1/2 hours of shift ;)


Some context...?

Quoting dabirds:
536) You didn't even get 2? Well over 6 to your SW. Should dry out enough to let them finish the soybeans with these lower temps and humidity + sunshine over next 4 days though. Not sure about low spot corn replant though - guess that'll depend on how much we get this weekend. Sure like the temps in the long range though, much more seasonable.
In the last 14 days I have personally dumped about 1.4" of rain, which corresponds to the NWS value of 1-1.5 inches in the last 14 days; however most of that fell longer than 10 days ago.  I watched 3 separate thunderstorm clusters on three consecutive days go poof right through me only to re-fire up to the east or south of us.  It's weird here, we have a dirty factory plant to our west that has it's own mythical legacy of choking off any storm that flirts with us.  


Past Precipitation IL NWS.  I'm near Tuscola, south of Champaign.  


Every storm seems to fight a very routine dry east wind here.  I need to move... sigh


Quoting ncstorm:




There's your spin the CMC was developing last week.


CAPE



Lifted index


However the atmosphere will become less stable

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Precipitation probability for a given region can be defined as:

POP = [chance that precip will form] x [coverage of precip]

A 70% chance of rainfall could mean that there is a 70% of storms forming, but if they form, they are expected to have 100% coverage. It could be reverse. Or a combination. As such, you can see why such forecasts are difficult to verify.

There are three ways I know of to try and verify probability forecasts such as those.
1) Round off the POP to a yes or no answer (ex: 0-49% = no; 50-100% = yes) and then verify over a long period of time in a binary way.
2) Create a running score where a higher score is bad and a lower score is good; points are defined as the difference between the POP and the verification. 50% POP forecast with rainfall occurring would yield 50 points, 30% POP forecast would yield 70 points. 100% POP forecast with no rainfall would yield 100 points. This is used often by various forecasting contests.
3) Accumulate statistics for each POP category (10%, 20%, 30%, etc) and see if the corresponding occurrence of rain was the same (10%, 20%, 30%, respectively).

Without doing something like that, it really isnt correct to call one of those forecasts "wrong" or "right."

Ah, come one. That's too much work!
Quoting NEFL:


Wow you are really smart! If i could 'like' this i really would! Thanks a bunch! I think i'll vote for you as the coolest/smartest blogger since Joe Bastardi!


It really doesn't take very much intelligence to understand that 70% is less than 100%.

Neapo certainly demonstrates a large knowledge base and a fair amount of intelligence in his many posts, but this one was nothing more than slapping an underhand lob over the fence.
Quoting NEFL:


Wow you are really smart! If i could 'like' this i really would! Thanks a bunch! I think i'll vote for you as the coolest/smartest blogger since Joe Bastardi!
You're welcome. I figured what Scott Lincoln so eloquently explained in #564 might go over the heads of some, so I dumbed it down so for those "special" few who would appreciate it. But putting me in the same sentence with Bastardi? I dunno; that's setting the bar awfully low, isn't it? Bastardi couldn't correctly forecast snow in the middle of a blizzard. Why, he'd have trouble predicting sunshine in the Sahara. (And don't even get me started on his climate "knowledge".) ;-)
583. MTWX
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Some context...?


I'm a radar technician... The Columbus, MS NEXRAD is my baby!!
Quoting BobWallace:


It really doesn't take very much intelligence to understand that 70% is less than 100%.

Neapo certainly demonstrates a large knowledge base and a fair amount of intelligence in his many posts, but this one was nothing more than slapping an underhand lob over the fence.


Couldn't agree more. This guy likes to come on here and cause problems all the time that's why I just ignore his post as it's just a matter of time before the ban hammer gets slammed down on him. Nea is infact one of the best posters on here and to insult him like this is uncalled for.
Quoting cedarparktxguy:



Na, just another load of illegals... Thank you Rick Perry
What's an "illegal"? Why are you using an adjective in a sentence whose structure clearly calls for a noun?
Quoting Neapolitan:
What's an "illegal"? Why are you using an adjective in a sentence whose structure clearly calls for a noun?


How about future Democrats? Big storms here on the Northshore of Lake Ponchartrain yesterday...we could use some more....ferns are drying up
The threat for some kind tropical or subtropical mischief in the Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or southwest Atlantic between May 20th and June 5th is gaining support. The GFS operational run has been showing fun and games at 384 hours for 3 weeks now, but the ensemble mean, the average of dozens of slightly altered runs of the same model, is now showing a strong signal of low pressure and precipitation in the 12-15 day period, which is more significant.



The GFS ensembles have come aboard with an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean at the end of May (22nd-24th).

It's not just the main model anymore.

EDIT: As Levi just stated below.

Quoting Levi32:
The threat for some kind tropical or subtropical mischief in the Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or southwest Atlantic between May 20th and June 5th is growing. The GFS operational run has been showing fun and games at 384 hours for 3 weeks now, but the ensemble mean, the average of dozens of slightly altered runs of the same model, is now showing a strong signal of low pressure and precipitation in the 12-15 day period, which is more significant.



That set up looks quite familiar, just not so early in the year.
Look at the MJO. The MJO just doesn't want to leave the Caribbean this year!

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
I hope we get the rain that is forecasted in Texas near future, raining here over 2 hours this morning and there is .05 in my rain gauge south of Austin, it did clean the streets but that is about it, very light rain but I will take it now bring on the heavy stuff Thursday and Friday hopefully.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS ensembles have come aboard with an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean at the end of May (22nd-24th).

It's not just the main model anymore.

EDIT: As Levi just stated below.



No blogging during school young sir!
Quoting hydrus:
That set up looks quite familiar, just not so early in the year.




SSSHHHHHH!! Hydrus...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS ensembles have come aboard with an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean at the end of May (22nd-24th).

It's not just the main model anymore.

EDIT: As Levi just stated below.

Could be hinting at a sub-tropical storm..jmo
Quoting Levi32:
The threat for some kind tropical or subtropical mischief in the Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or southwest Atlantic between May 20th and June 5th is gaining support. The GFS operational run has been showing fun and games at 384 hours for 3 weeks now, but the ensemble mean, the average of dozens of slightly altered runs of the same model, is now showing a strong signal of low pressure and precipitation in the 12-15 day period, which is more significant.



Since we are currently not in a La Nina or El Nino situation could we have a early active tropical season?
Quoting weatherh98:


No blogging during school young sir!

Oh don't worry, I'm not. ;)

North Carolina primaries are today so all schools get a half-day.
Didnt this happen last year? we had model support fr weeks, I want to say we only got an invest out of it
Please keep political discussions off the blog... There are whole websites for political discussions (especially racist or bigoted ones). This website (about the weather) is definitely not one of those.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh don't worry, I'm not. ;)

North Carolina primaries are today so all schools get a half-day.



AAHHH i see well im sick today really not doing well
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS ensembles have come aboard with an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean at the end of May (22nd-24th).

It's not just the main model anymore.

EDIT: As Levi just stated below.


Hey TAwx13. Are the models still hinting on developement in the eastern pacific?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Since we are currently not in a La Nina or El Nino situation could we have a early active tropical season?


Active early and then taporing off as we had into el nino
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Since we are currently not in a La Nina or El Nino situation could we have a early active tropical season?


History shows that years we transition into El-nino tend to have early season TS formation.
Quoting hydrus:
Could be hinting at a sub-tropical storm..jmo

Nah, I think it would be of tropical origins. Sea Surface Temperatures are definitely warm enough to support a tropical system.
86 and no pop ups yet? woah:)
From the 0z run of the ensemble, all of the little closed red loops (5760m isohypse) in the eastern Pacific at 14 days out represented forecasted locations of a tropical cyclone there. The following 6z run shifted all of the action into the western Caribbean before the EPAC could get a storm, but as these situations usually go, the EPAC will get activity and possibly a storm first before the Caribbean lights up.

Quoting nigel20:

Hey TAwx13. Are the models still hinting on developement in the eastern pacific?

The 06Z GFS showed tropical development in the East Pacific but the 12Z just shows an area of low pressure.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh don't worry, I'm not. ;)

North Carolina primaries are today so all schools get a half-day.


Really, cause my kids are still in school?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 06Z GFS showed tropical development in the East Pacific but the 12Z just shows an area of low pressure.

Thanks much TAwx13
Quoting NEFL:


Oh Jeffy, you know the ban hammer well dont you since you have gotten it several times! But its okay, i'm really glad you picked up that 3.54" of rain yesterday! Any today? I was thinking you may get 4-8" today, let me know :-) I understand now from Neapolitan that 70% means that its not 100% going to rain so if it doesnt rain then the meteorologists werent technically wrong! Anyways, i bet you can smell the rainy season its so close!


Let me nip this now and this is it with you as this is no place for this non-sense. I am not Jeff as you state and if you have a problem then e-mail me.
It looks like SE TX has had enough warming to help storm chances this afternoon. Per the SPC maps, SBCIN is basically gone, and CAPE is slowly rising (instead of being consistently below 1000, its now running 500-1500). The Lifted Index and humidity level still stinks, tho. (Precipitable water is between 1.3 and 1.5")
Quoting ncstorm:


Really, cause my kids are still in school?

Really? Maybe it is just our district then.
Quoting ncstorm:


Really, cause my kids are still in school?



Caught red handed!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? Maybe it is just our district then.


yeah thats what Im thinking..New Hanover County had a full day
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Since we are currently not in a La Nina or El Nino situation could we have a early active tropical season?


The movement towards El Nino usually supports an early start, but becoming less active than normal during the peak of the season. In general, this year should be below the post-1995 normal for Atlantic activity.
Quoting ncstorm:


yeah thats what Im thinking..New Hanover County had a full day


It would be funny if thats where he lives
Quoting weatherh98:


It would be funny if thats where he lives

Nah, TAwx13 is legit. I wish my school (WAAAAAAAY back in the day) allowed us out on half days for election day.

(for those interested, Google is awesome)
Quoting weatherh98:


It would be funny if thats where he lives

Nope, I live in the county north.

Anyways, I'll be glad when it pours down rain tomorrow. It's too warm.
Quoting jeffs713:

Nah, TAwx13 is legit. I wish my school (WAAAAAAAY back in the day) allowed us out on half days for election day.

(for those interested, Google is awesome)


Hahahahahah YeA I didnt question cody's legitamacy, I wish i got a day off also, but no im just sick!

Where do you live?
Quoting weatherh98:


Active early and then taporing off as we had into el nino


.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, I live in the county north.

Anyways, I'll be glad when it pours down rain tomorrow. It's too warm.


Whats the temp?

Here its not so much the heat its the humidity, the dewpoint is 72!!
Quoting weatherh98:


It would be funny if thats where he lives

Nah, he's stated many times where he lives..he isnt in NH County
Quoting weatherh98:


Whats the temp?

Here its not so much the heat its the humidity, the dewpoint is 72!!

78F with a dewpoint of 55F.
And by looking at this, it would likely track W or W-NW. That Bermuda High is showing up nice on the long range..Edit..I realize it is closer to the Azores, but you can see Bermuda is under its influence.
Quoting PedleyCA:


.

Hey pedley. What's up?
NCEP


CMC
627. NEFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Let me nip this now and this is it with you as this is no place for this non-sense. I am not Jeff as you state and if you have a problem then e-mail me.


No problem Rasta :-) move along :0)

Anyways, its still not set in stone that we'll be seeing El Nino, it could very well just be Neutral this summer. Models are just that, models, time will tell.

Quoting ncstorm:


My apologies, i dont remember the names of counties only parishes

it would be like you tying to remember tangipahoa parish or terrebonne parish, maybe even, vermilion parish:)
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pedley. What's up?


Not much, was going bust on bad spelling but I caught myself (kind of)..
How are you this fine (so far) day. Weather good there?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

78F with a dewpoint of 55F.


Wanna Trade?!?!?!
Quoting NEFL:


No problem Rasta :-) move along :0)

Anyways, its still not set in stone that we'll be seeing El Nino, it could very well just be Neutral this summer. Models are just that, models, time will tell.



Soi is going back up...

(as of yesterday)
Low pressure forecast in the favored areas like Levi has been eluding too.
Quoting weatherh98:


Soi is going back up...

(as of yesterday)

As it should. The SOI goes through rises and falls, and that is completely normal. The next time we go back down, it should end up lower than the value it was at before it started going back up yesterday.

Up --> Down --> Farther Down --> Up --> Down --> Up --> Farther Down
Quoting PedleyCA:


Not much, was going bust on bad spelling but I caught myself (kind of)..
How are you this fine (so far) day. Weather good there?

Yeah, i'm good. It's currently partly cloudy with no present treat of rain.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As it should. The SOI goes through rises and falls, and that is completely normal. The next time we go back down, it should end up lower than the value it was at before it started going back up yesterday.

Up --> Down --> Farther Down --> Up --> Down --> Up --> Farther Down


I see
Quoting NEFL:


No problem Rasta :-) move along :0)

Anyways, its still not set in stone that we'll be seeing El Nino, it could very well just be Neutral this summer. Models are just that, models, time will tell.


Are you related to Jamaicans? "no problem Rasta" is something that you usually hear from Jamaicans
Quoting nigel20:

Are you related to Jamaicans? "no problem Rasta" is something that you usually hear from Jamaicans

No, I think NEFL is actually of the species Trollicus Weblogus. This species is known for creating strife on blogs, and is closely related to Trollicus Forumi, and Trollicus Pranksterus. In short, they think its funny to cause grief, when it really isn't (to most).

They can be effectively exterminated with a quick spray of Troll-B-Gon or Troll-Away (available at a choice retailer near you). Alternatively, specially trained individuals can permanently eliminate them with judicious use of the Banhammer (please note, the Banhammer is only to be used by well-trained indviduals).
Line aint happening, chaos rain over TX, unorganized scattered, can't be predicted what's gonna happen
Quoting jeffs713:

No, I think NEFL is actually of the species Trollicus Weblogus. This species is known for creating strife on blogs, and is closely related to Trollicus Forumi, and Trollicus Pranksterus. In short, they think its funny to cause grief, when it really isn't (to most).

They can be effectively exterminated with a quick spray of Troll-B-Gon or Troll-Away (available at a choice retailer near you).


hes not too trolly.
He is just argumenticus fightiae
Quoting jeffs713:

No, I think NEFL is actually of the species Trollicus Weblogus. This species is known for creating strife on blogs, and is closely related to Trollicus Forumi, and Trollicus Pranksterus. In short, they think its funny to cause grief, when it really isn't (to most).

They can be effectively exterminated with a quick spray of Troll-B-Gon or Troll-Away (available at a choice retailer near you). Alternatively, specially trained individuals can permanently eliminate them with judicious use of the Banhammer (please note, the Banhammer is only to be used by well-trained indviduals).


L
O
L
I think JTWC gave up on 19s a little too quickly...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah, I think it would be of tropical origins. Sea Surface Temperatures are definitely warm enough to support a tropical system.
I believe shear will be present at the time this system is forecast to develop..just my opinion.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think JTWC gave up on 19s a little too quickly...


Yeah, maybe...it's not looking bad at the moment


Hey, a Blob is a Blob....
Quoting RitaEvac:
Line aint happening, chaos rain over TX, unorganized scattered, can't be predicted what's gonna happen


Well the Sea breeze is exploding along the coast in the form of a line!
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Well the Sea breeze is exploding along the coast in the form of a line!


it wont move much tho
Quoting weatherh98:


it wont move much tho


That is very true. I am starting to wonder if the big mass of rain west of Houston will make it here before breaking apart into scattered light rain. There is plenty of sunshine left so we will just have to see
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That is very true. I am starting to wonder if the big mass of rain west of Houston will make it here before breaking apart into scattered light rain. There is plenty of sunshine left so we will just have to see


rule of thumb, ifthe sun stays out past three its almost garunteed
Quoting hydrus:
I believe shear will be present at the time this system is forecast to develop..just my opinion.

About 10-20 knots according to the GFS. Not bad for an early season tropical cyclone.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

About 10-20 knots according to the GFS. Not bad for an early season tropical cyclone.


That's really low for this early
652. MTWX
Popcorn storms starting to fire across North MS... Bring on the rain!!! Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

About 10-20 knots according to the GFS. Not bad for an early season tropical cyclone.
I hope this link works. It shows an interesting pattern change as low pressure is literally forced into the Caribbean. I still believe shear will be higher the ten to twenty when this occurs....Link
New blog
Link