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Rare January tornadoes rip the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:39 PM GMT on January 08, 2008

Wild spring-like severe weather swept through the Midwestern U.S. last night, unleashing tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, flooding, and extreme wind gusts. Up to 37 tornadoes ripped through Missouri, Oklahoma, Illinois, Arkansas, and Wisconsin. Two people were killed and three critically injured in southern Missouri near the town of Marshfield, northeast of Springfield, when a tornado smashed through a mobile home park. In Wheatland, Wisconsin, in Kenosha County, just north of the Illinois border, a strong or possibly violent tornado damaged or destroyed 55 buildings and injured 13 people. Twelve homes were demolished down to their foundations. The Wheatland tornado was only the second January tornado on record in Wisconsin. The only other one was a long-track F3 in Green and Rock counties on 24 January 1967. A radar animation of the Wheatland tornado is at right, and more detailed imagery and analysis of this tornado are available from the CIMSS Satellite Blog.

Record warm temperatures helped fuel yesterday's severe weather outbreak. The 63° F reading in Milwaukee was the warmest temperature ever recorded there in the month of January. Many locations in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois posted record highs within three degrees of their warmest-ever January readings. The record warmth will continue to fuel more severe thunderstorms today from northern Louisiana to Ohio, and the Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Kentucky. Severe thunderstorms have already been reported in Arkansas this morning.

Last night's severe thunderstorm I observed from my house was the first I've ever experienced in my 40 years living in Michigan. One thunderstorm, 100 miles north of where I live, covered the ground up to two inches deep with hail (Midland, Michigan). Michigan has had three consecutive Januarys with record warmth and spring-like thunderstorms. Northern Illinois recorded its first January tornado since 1950 last night, and Wisconsin its second January tornado on record. Is it global warming? Well, one can't blame a single weather event on climate change. Also, it was eight below zero here just five days ago, so there has been some very normal winter weather this year. Furthermore, the 37 tornadoes reported yesterday don't come close to the 102 twisters recorded during the huge January 17-22, 1999 tornado outbreak across Arkansas and Tennessee. But the string of unusual January warmth in three straight years, accompanied by severe thunderstorms far to the north, is broadly consistent with what one would expect to see in a warming climate. Expect to see a lot more spring-like weather in January in coming years.

Jeff Masters
Kenosha, WI Tornado
Kenosha, WI Tornado
This tornado was caught at approx. 4:30 pm 1/7/08. North-east side of Kenosha County, in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

first
My neck of the woods!
At least Dr. Masters is covering the storm situation. Relatively little media coverage.
@wxfan: Apparently the Nobel Prize should have gone to you since you seem to know everything. Jeff Master's asks if it's the result of global warming, not that it is the result.

So out of your one comment, I deduct that you don't know how to read correctly and you're a know-it-all. What a successful person you must be. Bury your head in the sand and go back to bed.
this rare severe we had back E last night dos not have any thing to do with global warming so whats drop it this rare severe we had back E has to do with La Nina
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. It has been a strange winter so far. It looks like CA may be in for some more storms in the next couple of days with a couple of low pressure areas in the Northeast Pacific. Only 25 days until the real forcaster gives his winter forcast. --Go TO Link--

Tazmanian: How much snow did you get in CA? I was following your blog for a while.
thanks 4 the update

A broad 500-200 hpa circulation is supporting a surface trough across the Atlantic between 50W-40W 20N-30N is producing scattered moderate to strong showers within a 100 km radius.

Upper level winds are currently 40 knots over the disturbance. SSTs are 24-26C. Troughs at multiple levels indicate the system is not vertically stacked and most of the convection and showers are generated by upper level energy. Furthermore, besides 925 hpa vorticity, there isnt any evidence that suggest a closed surface circulation just a pertubation within the wind field and pressure zone.

Models continue to show that the formation and deepening of an upper level circulation which will extend to the surface intiating a surface feature by amplifying the surface trough. Most models take the system towards the west or northwest around the Azores High while briefly intensifying it.. Most models are also in fair agreement that in about 132 hrs the system will be absorbed into a large extratropical storm's cold front.

by W456
7. lawntonlookers 5:29 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. It has been a strange winter so far. It looks like CA may be in for some more storms in the next couple of days with a couple of low pressure areas in the Northeast Pacific. Only 25 days until the real forcaster gives his winter forcast. --Go TO Link--

Tazmanian: How much snow did you get in CA? I was following your blog for a while


last time i am going to say it 5" of snow fell
Hello Dr. M -

why invoke all of the Global Warming stuff? This blog entry makes it seem as if you have template by which you view all weather events.

I suspect that this isn't the case, but citation of colloquial datapoints (e.g., FIRST (??!!) severe thunderstorm you have EVER seen from your house in 40 years) isnt a substitute for science.

You cite all of these other observations - 1950 tornado in N Illinois, 1967 F3, 1999 Tornado outbreak - which shows that extreme weather is within the range of 'normal' - but then go on to say that this weather pattern '... is broadly consistent with what one would expect to see in a warming climate.'

That seems like an unfounded statement - even just from the very data you present. Does extreme weather need to disappear in order to disprove Global Warming?

I'm confused...
1950, 1967, 1999, 2007.
Let's see what we get over the next 10 years.

Then, when all the ice is gone and Santa has to live in a Submarine, then we can say it's GW's weather, oop's typo, I mean Global Warming, not the President who's full of hot air. I like the President. I like the NSA. I like people who monitor my comments.
:rofl:
wow... this storm passed to the north... and to the south of me yesterday... We didnt even hear any thunder or get much rain...quite odd.

to correlate this with global warming is a lil crazy... was it global cooling 2 weeks ago when it was -4 ?

lets cool it on the global warming alarm everywhere we turn... I am a believer that climat change is happening but I also believe its a natural process which has never stopped happening since day one.

problem is now everyone is collecting selective dats to prove their point...nobody is unbiased which is scary.
WOW. Hope everyone faired well.
Southwest Pacific Ocean

Regional Specialized Meteorological Center - Nadi

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2100z 07Jan)
=============================
At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F [1003 hPa] located near 19.1S 176.5W is slow moving. Position is POOR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea Surface Temperatures around 28-29C. Convection has slightly increased for the last 6-12 hours with cyclonic circulation more evident at the surface. Tropical Depression 07F lies in a low to moderate sheared environmnet with low level circulation center partially exposed.

Global models predict some intensification and expects 07F to move slowly for the next 24 hours, and then towards the southeast in the 24-48 hour period.

The potential of this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now MODERATE to HIGH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1430z 08Jan)
=============================================
An area of convection (97P/07F) located near 18.2S 175.5W or 350 NM east of Suva, Fiji. Recent infrared imagery and SSMI/S 37Ghz Microwave imagery shows a well organized low level circulation center with the bulk of the convection displaced to the south. ASCAT Pass also reveals a tightly wound low level circulation center with 25 knots unflagged winds near the center. An upper level low to the northwest of the LLCC is currently preventing convection from forming directly over the center of the disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 mb. Due to the well defined low level circulation center, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR.

----------
Southwest Indian Ocean

Sub-Regional Specialized Meteorological Center - Mauritius

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5 (Final)
=========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather [Dissipated]

Additional Information
======================
The low originally monitored has dissipated in the northwest of Reunion Island. A new low has formed leeward of Reuinion Island, located near 22.3S 54.9E as of 12:00 PM UTC. Currently disconnected from the thundery activity associated to the area of disturbed weather that remains north of the MAscarenes Islands. It is possible thundery activity rebuilds temporarily over this new low, but environment remains unfavorable and potential of intensification is poor.

This is the last advisory on the system unless it re-generates.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 08Jan)
======================================
An area of convection (95S/07R) previously near 19.6S 56.6E has dissipated and is now no longer considered for tropical cyclone development
hey folks, checking in to see whats happening today. There's still an impressive band of squalls pushing ahead of the cold front... I hope we get some T-storms here in B-lo..I love the energy..gets me all zippery.

Seems that we are in the midst of the legendary January thaw. I for one am absolutely LOVING it! I miss the warm air and fresh, not bitter breezes.

People think this warm spell in Jan. is something new that can be attributed to climate change? If I can recollect previous years, there were numerous Januaries that had some milder temps...this is definately not new! Infact I remember that once the thaw is passed, the coldest weather comes along!

Mother Nature likes to play games with us....
It's close to 70 here in Danbury, CT today - beating the old record by about 13 degrees.
Is this March or April?Looking at the map sure looks like a spring time pattern.
its backwards day LOL winter is spring!!

simply amazing what a little warm air does
A year ago last Sunday we hit 70 deg.so your right Lake this isn't unusual,and looking at the long range charts,all this may be a distant memory come Monday.
LOL read this from my local forcast office...

A MODERATE SW
FLOW MAY EVEN BRING THE WARM READINGS TO THE SHORE ALSO. THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW HAD THE RECORD MAX TEMPS THAT MAY GO DOWN IN FLAMESTODAY.

they have a sense of humor at the local NWS office
People think this warm spell in Jan. is something new that can be attributed to climate change? If I can recollect previous years, there were numerous Januaries that had some milder temps...this is definately not new! Infact I remember that once the thaw is passed, the coldest weather comes along!

One thing for sure - the cold weather never really makes up for the warm weather anymore; it has been forever (many years) since I had a winter that wasn't warmer than normal, and that does not mean just the last two winters (on this topic, the two insanely warm days I just had pushed up the mean for the whole winter by almost 1 degree, and I can't imagine a day with negative departures of 30-40 degrees, heck, even low temperatures of zero or lower are now history it looks like; they used to occur several times a year in the past, as in before 2000).
oh god they're Treckies....

THIS REMINDS US OF THE ORIGINAL STAR TREK
EPISODE WHERE DR MCCOY, SCOTTY AND SPOCK WERE ONCE IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT. BASED ON THAT INSPRING EPISODE, THE UKMET GFS ECMWF AT
144HRS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH A BAGGY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST
and as with the star trek episode,you start to worry when there is complete agreement.
exactly NE. all the models showing the same thing :/ guess I will go and stock up the salt bin and two stroke cans.
28. V26R
Bone, NEWX
I step away from the computer to get some
lunch and come back to read the two past
posts from you guys and you always seem to be the bearer of great news for me
So when does the snow start and the
temps go down to minus 20???
29. V26R
Well atleast the SPC seems to be waking up now


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/WRN KY/SRN INDIANA/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081911Z - 082115Z

TORNADO WATCH #0008 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY WITH A NEW TORNADO
WATCH.

LATEST DATA INDICATES AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION E OF CURRENT WW...WITH
SMALL NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF MS/NERN LA.
GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME.
THUS...WILL REPLACE WW #0008 WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH TO COVER THE
EVOLVING THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 01/08/2008

Tell me this doesn't sound like a springtime event.


THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING
FROM ICE JAMS IN THE WATCH AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS CAUSING SNOWMELT TO ACCELERATE WHICH WILL INCREASE
RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS CAUSING THE ICE TO BREAKUP.

* THE BROKEN ICE CHUNKS THEN MAY JAM AND CAUSE FLOODING AS THEY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM AND PILE INTO OBSTRUCTIONS SUCH AS ISLANDS AND
BRIDGE PIERS... REACH AREAS WHERE THERE ARE BENDS OR NARROWING
OF THE CHANNEL...AS WELL AS AREAS WHERE THE CHANNEL DEPTH
CHANGES GOING FROM DEEP WATER TO SHALLOW WATER. SOME STREAMS
AND RIVERS AS WELL AS THEIR TRIBUTARIES THAT ARE ESPECIALLY
PRONE TO ICE JAMS IN THE WATCH AREA INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO IN NEW YORK THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER...CEDAR RIVER...
MOOSE RIVER...SACANDAGA RIVER...EAST CANADA CREEK...WEST
CANADA CREEK...FULMER CREEK...MOYER CREEK...STEELE CREEK...
CAROGA CREEK...OTSQUAGO CREEK...IN VERMONT THE WILLIAMS
RIVER... SAXTONS RIVER AND WEST RIVER.
31. V26R
You called it earlier this Morning NEWX
So I was outside getting a suntan...
My thermometer was reading 72 deg in the sun.
ahhh. Vitamin D!!!
yea NE the warm up is wrecking havoc with the runoff situation and ice damming.

V2 doesnt look like a snow event just yet. It has the low tracking to our west thus we are warm sectored. Only change would be if the Low moves east (hasnt yet this winter) then we would be on the cold side.

But either way there is alot of moisture with the system so an inch or more isn't out of the question. Might be a flooding event for us.

BTW after the cold front swings through tomorrow better have the outdoor stuff tied down. Looks like a wind advisory for us. 40mph winds seem very plausable figure higher gusts (50mph range).
34. V26R
Bone NEWX dunno if you've seen this but looks like its gonna get windy for us



Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
222 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

222 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ON STRONG WEST
WINDS. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 45 MPH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE POCONOS.

WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES
AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE
ALL LOOSE OBJECTS. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA
YOU SHOULD KEEP A FIRM GRIP ON THE WHEEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$
NICOSIA

BUF radar's down.
MESSAGE DATE: JAN 08 2008 18:19:34 THE KBUF WSR-88D WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE VERIZON TECHNICIANS WORK ON THE COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT BETWEEN THE RDA AND RPG. SURROUNDING RADARS INCLUDE KCLE...KBGM...KTYX...AND ENVIRONMENT CANDADA KING CITY RADAR. HITCHCOCK

No...I cant HEAR you now!!!!!
LOL V2 check my post right before yours LOL I mentioned the winds :)
35. LakeShadow 7:36 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
BUF radar's down.

Did the forget to feed the hamster again?
39. V26R
Couldn't they have picked a better day for this considering the Severe Stuff on your doorstep?

Sweet
We always get a wind event on my trash day,so I can chase my barrels all over the neighborhood
41. V26R
Must be in the same Union NEWX
LOl verizon screwing with radar systems. whats next roto-rooter messing with the television sets?
Hey Bonedog.... yesterday you apparently had either posted some photos or links to some photos about sharks and a kayak, by the time I got on the blog they were gone. If you still have them, I would really like to see them.

Thanks
44. V26R
Verizons New Slogan

DUH
Whadasay?
here ya go Doda

Link

takes you too the website with them and the story behind them.
Wow! Thank you.
It never got below 70F in Houston last night. That is oddly disconcerting. I fear my plants will mistake the weather also.

Gobal warming? Who cares, it is hot. Let's do something about hot weather. A nice umbrella that stretches from coast to coast might help.

Catfuraplenty
no problem Doda.


Lake ever notice they pick just the best times to do maintenece on the radars?
Guess I'll have to watch NOAA...got the General GL sector working
and it begins again :(



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
MOC069-155-082015-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0004.080108T1928Z-080108T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 128 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HORNERSVILLE...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF SENATH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KENNETT...DENTON...DEERING...HOLCOMB...CLARKTON...HAYTI HEIGHTS...
HAYTI...WARDELL AND BOLTON.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
yeah, rather inconvenient. but not only Buf but surrounding radar sites... Anything could come at us and we would have no warning. (This on a 70 deg day in Jan!!!)
LOL just checked my Radar. NOPE what they decided the Northeast didnt need radar today?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
148 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MOC069-155-082015-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080108T2015Z/
DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
148 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 148 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DEERING...OR ABOUT
8 MILES NORTH OF STEELE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PASCOLA...HAYTI HEIGHTS...HAYTI...HOMESTOWN...WARDELL...BOLTON...
NORTH WARDELL AND HAYWARD.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
wow,is western Ten. going to get nailed.Good luck to all out in the Ohio valley,that line of storms looks like its firing up again.
wow alot of records being broken!!!

Current Record Report Products:
Albany, NY (1)
Albuquerque, NM (1)
Amarillo, TX (1)
Austin/San Antonio, TX (3)
Baltimore MD/Washington, DC (6)
Binghamton, NY (4)
Birmingham, AL (1)
Bismarck, ND (1)
Blacksburg, VA (1)
Boston, MA (4)
Brownsville, TX (2)
Buffalo, NY (8)
Burlington, VT (6)
Caribou, ME (4)
Central Illinois (4)
Charleston, WV (8)
Chicago, IL (14)
Cleveland, OH (7)
Des Moines, IA (2)
Detroit, MI (7)
Duluth, MN (1)
Flagstaff, AZ (1)
Fort Worth, TX (6)
Gaylord, MI (5)
Glasgow, MT (1)
Grand Rapids, MI (7)
Great Falls, MT (1)
Greenville, SC (3)
Houston, TX (6)
Huntsville, AL (3)
Indianapolis, IN (8)
Jackson, MS (4)
Jackson, KY (2)
Kansas City, MO (2)
LaCrosse, WI (1)
Lake Charles, LA (3)
Las Vegas, NV (1)
Little Rock, AR (2)
Louisville, KY (1)
Lubbock, TX (1)
Marquette, MI (2)
Memphis, TN (5)
Midland, TX (2)
Milwaukee, WI (14)
Nashville, TN (2)
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (1)
Northern Indiana, IN (8)
Norman, OK (12)
Paducah, KY (5)
Philadelphia, PA (14)
Pittsburgh, PA (2)
Pueblo, CO (1)
Quad Cities, IA (11)
Rapid City, SD (1)
Reno, NV (1)
Riverton, WY (2)
Sacramento, CA (1)
Salt Lake, UT (1)
Shreveport, LA (7)
Spokane, WA (1)
Springfield, MO (11)
State College, PA (2)
St. Louis, MO (8)
Tulsa, OK (10)
Upton, NY (5)
Wichita, KS (4)
Wilmington, OH (3)
Boston hit 66 deg today,breaking the record of 64 set in 1930
Lake... this link will cover your radar needs in the short term.

Link
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Tornado Warning

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
205 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ARC093-082015-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080108T2015Z/
MISSISSIPPI AR-
205 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY...

AT 205 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BASSETT...OR ABOUT
7 MILES WEST OF WILSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARIE...KEISER AND OSCEOLA.

.DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE
PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS. VEHICLES STOPPED UNDER BRIDGES BLOCK
TRAFFIC AND PREVENT PEOPLE FROM GETTING OUT OF THE STORM`S PATH AND
TO SHELTER. IF YOU CANNOT DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...GET OUT OF
YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE FLAT IN A DITCH AS A LAST RESORT.
So I'm looking at the weather to the west where the radars work and I'm guessing in my brain what it will be like as it goes over my head...


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Tornado Warning

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TORNADO WARNING
ARC093-TNC097-167-082100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0005.080108T2010Z-080108T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
210 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WILSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OSCEOLA...FULTON...LUXORA...FT PILLOW...ASHPORT AND COVINGTON.

.IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
really starting to pop out there :( stay safe everyone
you can see where the tornados are. look at the overshooting tops!!

very intense cloud tops!

grazi Doda bear
lost wu there for a moment, anyone else get the boot?
anyone else having trouble loading the page?

I got this message...

Site is currently overloaded. Please try again in a few minutes...

never seen that before. damn trolls >8<

Yeh,having a lot of trouble reloading the page.
damn trolls
Hello. Back after 3 weeks of no internet. Bummer. Horrible weather in the mid-west for sure. Also strange temps all over. Whats going on ?? Any reasons put forward for the record highs ??


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Tornado Warning

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
226 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ARC093-TNC097-082100-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080108T2100Z/
MISSISSIPPI AR-LAUDERDALE TN-
226 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR WESTERN
LAUDERDALE AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

AT 226 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FULTON...OR ABOUT
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUXORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FT
PILLOW AND ASHPORT.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. A TORNADO HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. AT OSCEOLA HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED.

TORNADO WARNING
ILC003-087-153-181-082100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0001.080108T2027Z-080108T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 300 PM CST.

* AT 222 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PULASKI...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DONGOLA...
GRAND CHAIN...PERKS...NEW GRAND CHAIN...WHITE HILL...JOPPA
JUNCTION...KARNAK...CYPRESS...BELKNAP...MOUNT PLEASANT...PLEASANT
GROVE...FORMAN...WEST VIENNA...BUNCOMBE...VIENNA...OMAR...
BLOOMFIELD...WARTRACE...SANDBURN AND FLATWOODS.

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
1200 UTC global models continue to develop the peristent area of convection in the subtropical atlnatic. Wind shear remains at 40 knots and SSTs around are well below 24C. What ever the models are forecasting here will likely develop the same way Andrea, Olga and 95L did - within the calm area (upper convergence zone) of an upper level trough/low.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
239 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ILC087-082100-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080108T2100Z/
JOHNSON IL-
239 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR JOHNSON
COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

AT 236 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CYPRESS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. NO REPORTS HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM PULASKI COUNTY AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH THAT
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
VIENNA...BUNCOMBE...VIENNA...OMAR...BLOOMFIELD...WARTRACE...
GRANTSBURG...SANDBURN AND FLATWOODS.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
Upwelling off the Coast of Central America

Upwelling occurs where wind forces stress upon the sea surface causing cold water to up-well from deeper areas to the surface to replace diverging water.



During the passage of vigrous cold fronts like the one you guys had last week, the associated high pressure builds in behind increasing the wind surge from the north. This surge is then force through the valleys of Central America and as they do so...they amplify in intensity. This amplified wind then blows over the water causing upwelling and sea surface temps to fall. The upwelling can be picked by infrared imagery as cool spots on the ocean surface.



Jan 2


Jan 7


75. V26R
"NO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM PULASKI COUNTY AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH THAT
AREA."


Well this isn't too good!
Hurricane force winds:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST
FOR NORTHERN ADAMS...WESTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...AND NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES...

AT 254 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. SIREN
ACTIVATION IS SUGGESTED
. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGECREST...OR
ABOUT NEAR FERRIDAY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
Tropical Depression 07F Update 2

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 08 2008

Tropical Depression 07F located near 17.4S-175.5W, moving towards the south. Position accurately placed using high-resolution visible imagery, which showed a well-define expose LLCC. The cyclone continues to be affected by northerly shear induced by 250-hpa low. SSTs are 27-29C. Estimated surface winds are 30 knots based on QuikSCAT, ASCAT and WindSAT. Estimated minimum pressure is 1004 hpa based on synoptic reports. Expect the cyclone to continue towards the south east around the subtropical ridge while slowly intensifying.

by W456

JTWC Stats
1800 UTC 25kts-1004mb-193S-1756W


78. V26R
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 345 PM CST.

* AT 301 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SOUTH
COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
CYPRESS...WATTS STATION...NICHOLS...OLD CYPRESS...BARDWELL...
MILBURN...KIRBYTON...MAGEE SPRINGS...CUNNINGHAM AND KALER.

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
KYC039-105-082145-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0002.080108T2105Z-080108T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 345 PM CST.

* AT 301 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SOUTH
COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
CYPRESS...WATTS STATION...NICHOLS...OLD CYPRESS...BARDWELL...
MILBURN...KIRBYTON...MAGEE SPRINGS...CUNNINGHAM AND KALER.
80. V26R
beatcha Bone
2020 5 S OSCEOLA MISSISSIPPI AR 3563 8999 SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED...SEMI TRUCKS OVERTURNED ON HIGHWAY 61...PERSONS INITIALLY TRAPPED IN HOME BUT NOW FREED...NO KNOWN INURIES AT TIME OF REPORT. (MEG)
LOL V2 same time stamp LOL got me by a second
2014 175 1 S OSCEOLA MISSISSIPPI AR 3569 8999 GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF OSCEOLA (MEG)
84. V26R
Bone I just got done reading a book called F5 by a guy named Mark Levine (sp?)
about the Big Outbreak in 1974, Man Ive only seen one Tornado (last years in Bayonne)
and seen the resulting damage from a couple out in Western Penna and Ive come to the conclusion that I don't want to ever be in
one of those suckers
sad day today again :(

1 SE APPLETON POPE AR 3541 9285 *** 1 FATAL *** THIS UPDATES THE PREVIOUS REPORT OF A TORNADO NEAR THE POPE/VAN BUREN COUNTY LINE...BETWEEN APPLETON AND JERUSALEM. ONE FATALITY HAS BEEN REPORTED ON SI (LZK)
I have seen a few V2 and went through one. Not a fun experence
2 NNW TEXARKANA MILLER AR 3347 9403 TORNADO SIREN BLOWN DOWN. POWER LINES DOWN TO 1500 BUSINESS AND HOMES (SHV)
CARDWELL DUNKLIN MO 3605 9029 ROOFS OFF OF HOUSES...OUTBUILDINGS OVERTURNED...TREES DOWN (MEG)
reports coming in arnt good for the area :(
Upwelling off the Coast of Central America

weather456 - that's excellent stuff you post.

I spy somthing north of the lesser antilles, its big and it looks to me almost as if its spinning, anyone taken a look at this yet?
Poor people out there,bad enough they have live in fear during the spring,but now to go through this in January adds insult to injury.
90. tornadofan 5:41 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Upwelling off the Coast of Central America

weather456 - that's excellent stuff you post.


thanks
Been good Storm, I have been watching the 07 Hurricane season, and I am ready for 08 hurricane season.
2050 EDITH LAUDERDALE TN 3585 8955 TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL HOUSES...ONE TRAILER DESTROYED...ONE BRICK HOUSE LOST ROOF AND ONE BACK WALL...TREES 24 INCHES IN DIAMETER UPROOTED. NO KNOWN INURIES AT TIME OF (MEG)


I hope the owners of that trailer weren't in there at the time of the tornado
just looked on the Infered, theres two of them right next to eachothere, that would be Lol if they both formed into 2 systems for the 08 hurricane season.
97. CybrTeddy 5:58 PM AST on January 08, 2008
just looked on the Infered, theres two of them right next to eachothere, that would be Lol if they both formed into 2 systems for the 08 hurricane season.


normally, only one will survive...as one develops the other is sheared significantly.
Another lashing

Storms over the deep south...notice the cloud orientations over near the Gulf Coast showing moist onshore flow...an ingredient of severe weather.

Wow is really picking up now. They are going to have another bad night in the Midwest.
Congratz Stormy
storm I just read about the presintation. congrats!
109. V26R
Amount of Lightning associated with the front seems to be getting narrower
Wonder if it has picked up some foward momentum!

Link
110. GBlet
You said it Storm. Makes me worry about whats in store for my neck of the woods. We were in the path of the Greensburg tornado last spring!
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A shortwave 500 hpa trough digs across the Eastern Rockies/Central Plains with the associated surface cold front extending from the Texas Coast across the Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Instability created both by upper level winds ahead the shortwave and surface inflow from the Gulf is leading to the development of severe thunderstorms within 200 nm of the front. 15-20 knot return flow and fair weather dominates the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Radiosonde data from cities across the US and Mexican Gulf Coast indicate significant mid-upper level dry stable sits across the region.

The 1030 mb Bermuda High is centered at 33N/57W. Surface winds over the Western Atlantic are predominantly anticyclonic at 5-10 knots with fair weather. The major features over the Atlantic today are a mid-upper level low circulation near 21N-60W based on water vapor derived winds from CIMSS. Typical synoptic scale rising motion right of this feature is producing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms from 60W-50W north of 20N. Another area of disturbed weather is just to the east of that feature. This feature is accompanied surface trough that extends along 20N/50W-30N/47W, producing scattered showers between 50W and 40W north of 20N. The NHC is forecasting a 1013 mb low to develop in association with this feature, and this is key because global models for the past several days have been indicating development. Environmental conditions still remain hostile.


by W456
113. GBlet
This year could be a real doozey!
yea Storm. doesnt seem like this year will see an offseason to the severe weather unfortunatly.

I do agree that Mother Nature is POed.

Weather is all about balance, guess the bubble is tilted a little too much for Her likeing.

98. StormW 6:00 PM AST on January 08, 2008
95. CybrTeddy 4:55 PM EST on January 08, 2008
Been good Storm, I have been watching the 07 Hurricane season, and I am ready for 08 hurricane season

You and me both.

Coast Guard is flying me up to the main command in Norfolk, VA. on Monday. They want me to give the same presentation I gave at USF back in Nov. on what I use and how I come up with a hurricane forecast. I 've been informed the Rear Admiral will be there.

You wont mind sharing that presentation?
116. V26R
I agree Storm Please share when possible!!!
Good Luck with the Trip!
Make Us Proud!
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KYC033-082245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080108T2245Z/
CALDWELL KY-
434 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 430 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FLAT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3717 8804 3718 8807 3718 8809 3723 8808
3724 8806 3726 8803 3733 8789 3733 8788
3719 8778 3711 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 233DEG 39KT 3726 8789

$$






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KYC035-082300-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080108T2300Z/
CALLOWAY KY-
430 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR CALLOWAY
COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 430 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD BETWEEN LYNN
GROVE AND MURRAY. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3662 8849 3667 8839 3674 8817 3674 8811
3673 8810 3667 8807 3650 8830 3650 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 235DEG 43KT 3664 8838

$$






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
INC051-125-163-173-082315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0010.080108T2225Z-080108T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
NORTHERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

* UNTIL 515 PM CST/615 PM EST/.

* AT 420 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR CENTRAL HIGH SCHOOL IN EVANSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NISBET...
MCCUTCHANVILLE...ELLIOT...SOMMERVILLE AND WINSLOW.

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
its really pooping out there :(

hope everyone is staying safe. I know there has been 1 fatality so far today. I hope there is no more.
120. V26R
Oh Ya Beat me to it this time Bone
Scarey thing is that the they are now mentioning that the Tornados may be obscured by heavy rain and not visible
Typical of Tornados on the EC


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

INC051-125-173-082315-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080108T2315Z/
PIKE IN-GIBSON IN-WARRICK IN-
538 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EST/515 PM CST/
FOR NORTHERN WARRICK...EASTERN GIBSON AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...

AT 537 PM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SPURGEON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COE...WINSLOW AND IVA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 3852 8708 3852 8707 3820 8708 3806 8747
3817 8748 3854 8740 3854 8734 3852 8732
3853 8728 3854 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 217DEG 67KT 3826 8728

$$






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KYC035-082300-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080108T2300Z/
CALLOWAY KY-
438 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR CALLOWAY
COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 435 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 2
MILES WEST OF MURRAY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION NEAR TAYLORS STORE AND
HAZEL. THIS STORM WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STELLA...
PENNY...MURRAY...ALMO HEIGHTS...ALMO...POTTERTOWN...VAN CLEAVE...
SHILOH...BOATWRIGHT...HICO AND FAXON.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
so far 2 confirmed EF3s yesterday
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper level anticyclonic flow dominates the Caribbean west of 70W, induced by an upper ridge whose axis extends from the Northeast tip of Colombia to the Yucatan Channel. Abundant mid-upper level moisture is being advected across the region in the form of cirriform clouds with embedded widely scattered showers. The lastest observations from Gradn Cayman show clouds broken at 22000 feet. At the surface, trades are on the moderate side this evening, advecting there typical patches of shallow moisture. A surface trough extends just north of Santo Domingo and Puerto Rico with a CLLC moving near 19.5N-79.5W. Scattered showers are between 20N and 25N from 70W-55W.


by W456

StormW,

ok....when u get a chance drop me an email as to which Global model u find most accurate for forecasting development of storms. I use CMC, GFS and the NAVY NOGAPS. Thanks

And could you explain to me what is the differnece between the West African Tropical Wave Model as oppose to the West African Cyclone Model. Are they two diffrent names of but the same synoptic model. I find both to be strongest near 700-500 hpa last 2 hurricane seasons. Thanks
Also SW, if it isnt too much....tell me how u find the mid level center of a moderately sheared tropical cyclone. Right now i place it within the convection that looks to has some vorticity.
yeah, SW no rush...i have till May...Thanks :)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
KYC059-107-149-233-082345-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0011.080108T2308Z-080108T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
NORTHEASTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
EASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 505 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VANDETTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CALHOUN...MASONVILLE AND PHILPOT.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Fl Long Range Forecast:

January 2008
Avg. Temperature: 59° (2° below avg.)
Precipitation: 2.5" (avg.)
Jan. 1-4: Showers, then sunny, cool
Jan. 5-7: T-storms, warm
Jan. 8-14: T-storms, then sunny, warm
Jan. 15-21: Showers, cool
Jan. 22-27: Sunny, warm
Jan. 28-31: Rain, cool

Source: Farmers Old Almanac
456 what does it say for the Northeast
Bone:

Includes predictions for all or portions of Connecticut (Canaan, North Granby, Sharon Valley, West Cornwall, Winsted), Maine (Auburn, Bangor, Lewiston, Portland, South Portland), Massachusetts (Chicopee, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lowell, Springfield), New Hampshire (Concord, Dover, Manchester, Nashua, Rochester), New Jersey (Colesville, Glenwood, McAfee, Sussex, Wantage), New York (Albany, Poughkeepsie, Schenectady, Troy, Utica), Pennsylvania (Matamoras), Vermont (Barre, Bennington, Burlington, Rutland, South Burlington).

Winter will be about a degree milder than normal, on average, with slightly above-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be above normal, especially in the interior of Maine. The coldest temperatures will occur in early and late December, mid-January, and early and mid- to late February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-December, mid- and late January, and early to mid-March.

After early April snow, April and May will be slightly warmer and wetter than normal, with the season's first heat wave in late May.

Summer will be rainier and slightly hotter than normal. The hottest periods will occur in mid- to late June and mid-July.

September will be relatively dry, with near-normal temperatures. October will be unusually mild, with record warmth in midmonth.

January 2008
Avg. Temperature: 21 (1 above avg.)
Precipitation: 4" (1" above avg.)
Jan. 1-4: Sunny, quite mild
Jan. 5-11: Snow, then sunny, cold
Jan. 12-16: Snow showers, seasonable
Jan. 17-20: Heavy snow, then sunny, very cold
Jan. 21-26: Snowstorm, then sunny, cold
Jan. 27-31: Snowstorm, then sunny, cold
Also, contour maps up around the 500 mb level could be useful.

thats the same as geopotential height fields?
WOW I'll give the Almanaic credit. The dates of the snow are pretty much on the ball according to the models so far. Plus the discription of the cold.

Im keeping an eye around MLK Day. Always get hammered right around there.
SW, isnt there any satellite signiture i should be looking for?....also well developed tropical cyclones have vort at 500 mb also.
139. StormW 7:37 PM AST on January 08, 2008

Boo-Yahh!!!...Thanks so much.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
544 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC121-127-090015-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080109T0015Z/
RANKIN MS-SIMPSON MS-
544 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
SIMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTIES...

AT 544 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARRISVILLE...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTH OF STAR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BRAXTON AND PINEY WOODS BY 550 PM CST...
D`LO AND MENDENHALL BY 555 PM CST...
CATO BY 600 PM CST...
PUCKETT...6 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNS AND 6 MILES NORTH OF MARTINVILLE
BY 605 PM CST...
PUCKETT BY 610 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER!
SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Tropical Depression 07F Update 2

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 08 2008 by W456
Update 2300 UTC JAN 08 2008 by W456

Tropical Depression 07F located near 17.4S-175.5W, moving towards the south. Position accurately placed using high-resolution visible imagery, which showed a well-define expose LLCC. The cyclone continues to be affected by northerly shear induced by 250-hpa low. SSTs are 27-29C. Estimated surface winds are 30 knots based on QuikSCAT, ASCAT and WindSAT. Estimated minimum pressure is 1004 hpa based on synoptic reports. Expect the cyclone to continue towards the south east around the subtropical ridge while slowly intensifying.

by W456

JTWC Stats
1800 UTC 25kts-1004mb-193S-1756W


From 15degree mornings to 70degree highs.


Anyone think thunderstorms will hit north-western N.C? Or is there too much dry air?
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC121-127-090015-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080109T0015Z/
RANKIN MS-SIMPSON MS-
556 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
SIMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTIES...

AT 556 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAXTON...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MENDENHALL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PUCKETT...JOHNS AND 7 MILES NORTH OF MARTINVILLE BY 605 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
The Wheatland, WI tornado was an upper-end EF3:

Link

THE TORNADO THAT WENT THROUGH THE WHEATLAND/NEW MUNSTER AREA IN WESTERN KENOSHA COUNTY HAS BEEN GIVEN A PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF-3 ...WITH ESTIMATED TOP WINDS BETWEEN 150-160 MPH...BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM.

THIS PLACES THE TORNADIC WINDS AT THE HIGHER PORTION OF THE EF-3 SCALE...WHICH RANGES FROM 136 MPH TO 165 MPH.


I'm wondering how bad it was in the southern end of the outbreak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
MSC121-127-129-090045-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0003.080109T0009Z-080109T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MENDENHALL...
NORTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 609 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR MARTINVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR MENDENHALL...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITE OAK BY 615 PM CST...
RALEIGH BY 625 PM CST...
BURNS BY 630 PM CST...
PINEVILLE BY 640 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC127-129-090045-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080109T0045Z/
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-
623 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND NORTHERN SMITH COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE OAK...OR ABOUT 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF MENDENHALL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RALEIGH AND BURNS BY 640 PM CST...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SYLVARENA
BY 645 PM CST...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND
LIKELY TORNADOES! MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY NOW!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
MSC061-129-090130-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0004.080109T0043Z-080109T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 643 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR RALEIGH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTH OF PINEVILLE BY 655 PM CST...
6 MILES NORTH OF BAY SPRINGS BY 705 PM CST...
TURNERVILLE BY 715 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
wow thats a long lived system :(

544cst to 643cst so far!!
heres something noteworthy. first time I have seen a message like this from the NWS


IDC013-091200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
BLAINE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
507 PM MST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF BLAINE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE SAWTOOTH NATIONAL FOREST AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED AN AVALANCHE
WARNING FOR BLAINE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT COMBINED WITH
WIND WILL INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER TO HIGH...TO POSSIBLY
EXTREME FOR ANY STEEP SLOPES IN THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY.

ALL HIGH RISK AREAS WILL BE CLOSED TO PEDESTRIAN AND NON-RESIDENT TRAFFIC.

IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGH RISK AREA, UNLESS YOU KNOW THAT YOU LIVE IN
AN AVALANCHE-ENGINEERED HOME...WE ARE RECOMMENDING YOU DO NOT SPEND
TONIGHT IN YOUR HOME.
ANY PERSONS INVOLVED IN SNOW REMOVAL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ADJACENT TO STEEP SLOPES ARE ADVISED TO TAKE SPECIAL PRECAUTIONS.
Evenin folks ...Ha! Capt "hook"...I THOUGHT you might be watchin
LOl Baja yea been watchin. Not a good night not at all :(
Well, nice to see you. Ive been trackin the weather as well...figured I'd pop in
I know this is off topic...bur forgive please i just wanted to say u guys in the US have the most exiting politics of any country in the world.
nice to see you as well.
Evenin 456 (nice to see you, as well)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
708 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC061-090130-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080109T0130Z/
JASPER MS-
708 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY...

AT 708 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOUIN. ...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MONTROSE AND TURNERVILLE BY 715 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
Evening Baja
yea we do 456.
well time for me to head home. see you all in the AM
Take care, Bone
Storm!! (Nice seein' ya!) Happy New Year and all that :)
StormW,

thank you so much for ur expertise on something that was bugging me for years. I'm going to the WV loop right now.
WV
I see a spin with the one near 60W-55W

the other one near 45W-40W has some other spin but not as pornounce. I also notice its drifting towards the NE.
Tropical Depression 07F Update 3

Issued 0200 UTC JAN 08 2008 by W456

Tropical Depression 07F centered near 19.56N-175.5W moving slowly towards thr south. Position and movement based QuikSCAT and visible imagery. Surface winds measured by QuikSCAT is 35 knots. Estimated surface pressure is around 1003-1004 hpa based on synoptic reports.

Visible imagery along with microwave data showed the well-defined LLCC of 07F remains expose due to northerly vertical wind shear induced by an upper low to its northwest. A recent QuikSCAT pass showed an excellent circulation with associated uncontiminated wind barbs of 35 knots. SSTs are 26-28F. Global models take this towards the southeast around the influence of a transitory anticyclone and are persistent on developing the depression further.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0000 UTC 25kts-1004mb-194S-1756W

This image was taken earlier of the naked swirl (in conjunction with a surface trof) north of Hispaniola and PR.

this is some in sould the temps in Antarctica be like -50 at this time of year ??? what are they doing in the lower 30s at this time of year


Link
later
Bureau of Meteorology - Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (09Jan)
=================================
A developing Tropical Low [1000 hPa] near Kowanyama on the west coast of Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland. It is expected to drift into the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria over the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
====================================
Thursday: Low
Friday-Saturday: Moderate
64 degrees in Rochester, NY, 5:00AM, 09/01/08.
Looking at a mean Bow Echo right now NE of Geneva, NY. Heading Twords the north end of Syracuse at 48knts

This front still has some punch left to it :/

I live just east of Rochester and we had a very strong storm move through thousands are without power
2 seperate bows now.

N of Utica and W of Watertown.

suns starting to come up now. Still have to watch, especially with warm overnight temps.

:(
WOW!!

0925 UNK CHEEKTOWAGA ERIE NY 737 AIRCRAFT BLOWN INTO JETWAY. APPARENT WING DAMAGE. REPORTED BY WEATHER OBSERVER. (BUF)

1005 75knt gust ROCHESTER MONROE NY ROCHESTER AIRPORT MEASURED 60 MPH SUSTAINED AS WELL. (BUF)
Wow, what a day! Spring weather up in Michigan in January, You all are posting WalMart banner pages, And it's the big chili cookoff at work.
Signs and Miracles!
The end is nigh!
(after this chili, I'll wish it was)
LOTS of fog down here and forecasts for the weekend are filling up with RAIN.
goign to have blow out conditions along the coast today. Look for departures anywhere from 1 to 2.5 feet below normal.
Photobucket


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 AM CST WED JAN 9 2008

THURSDAY....

THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING RATHER DECENT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A 250MB JET OF AROUND
115-125 KT WILL SIT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA ON THURSDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT WITH
40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND 20-25KT 0-1KM SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
0-6KM HELICITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 250-300 M^2/S^2. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK DECENT WITH 6.5-7.0 C/KM EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR THE
NATCHEZ TRACE AND SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS FROM AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND SOUTH AS WELL...WITH MLCAPES
AROUND 600-1000 J/KG EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT SHOT AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VICKSBURG TO EUPORA LINE...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SINCE THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A COUPLE HOURS
SOONER.
wow Storm!! Thats a cold pacific. Definatley going to be a large influence this winter as far as patterns go. Also with the models showing La Nina untill autumn 2008 could be a wrench in the upcoming hurricane season
Good Morning,nice spring morning,oh,wait a minute its Jan.9th
nice. the NAM is getting a face lift!!!


FROM: PAUL HIRSCHBERG

SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH CHIEF

OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY /OST/



SUBJECT: AMENDED: NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE MODEL CHANGES:

EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY 19 2008



REFER TO: TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 07-96 TRANSMITTED

ON DECEMBER 6 2007



AMENDED TO CLARIFY AND EMPHASIZE THAT FIELDS NORMALLY CONSIDERED FIXED SUCH AS TERRAIN...BIT-MAP AND ESPECIALLY LAND-SEA MASK WILL BE DIFFERENT IN ALL NAM OUTPUT GRIDS DUE TO EXPANDED NAM COMPUTATIONAL DOMAIN.



EFFECTIVE TUESDAY 19 FEBRUARY 2008...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...SEVERAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO:

- WEATHER RESEARCH FORECAST NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL

/WRF-NMM/ RUNNING IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE MODEL /NAM/

- NAM DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM /NDAS/

- DOWNSCALED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/ WITH ETA EXTENSION

/DGEX/.

- GRIDPOINT STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION /GSI/ ANALYSIS WHICH

PROVIDES INITIAL CONDITIONS TO THE NDAS AND NAM FORECASTS.



THESE CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO IMPROVE MODEL PERFORMANCE.

THE MODEL CHANGES INCLUDE:



1. THE COMPUTATIONAL DOMAIN OF THE NAM WILL BE INCREASED BY

18 PERCENT. TO SEE A COMPARISON OF THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL AND EXPANDED NAM DOMAINS, GO TO:


BECAUSE THE NAM MODEL DOMAIN IS BEING ENLARGED BY 18 PERCENT ...THE BIT DEFINITION SECTION /BIT-MAP/ OF NAM OUTPUT GRIDS...

WHICH OVERLAP THE NAM INTEGRATION DOMAIN... WILL BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED. THIS CHANGE IS OCCURRING BECAUSE VALID MODEL DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER A LARGER AREA. WHEN NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS BEGINS RUNNING THE PARALLEL NAM....SAMPLE NAM GRIB OUTPUT WITH THE MODIFIED BIT-MAP REPRESENTATION WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER. THIS NOTICE WILL BE UPDATED AT THAT TIME TO REFLECT THE LOCATION OF THE DATA.



2. TWO MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WRF-NMM MODEL RADIATION PARAMETERIZATION.



3. CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WRF-NMM OROGRAPHY AND LAND-SEA MASK INCLUDING A MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...SMOOTHER NAM SURFACE HEIGHT AND REMOVAL OF SPURIOUS ELEVATED WATER POINTS.



4. DURING THE NDAS FORECAST...THE 12-36 HOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z OPS NAM RUN WILL BE USED TO FILL IN FOR THE CONUS-BASED STAGE II/IV ANALYSIS AS A DRIVER FOR NDAS SOIL MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE CONUS /OCONUS/.



5. THE NEW /UNIFIED/ LAND-SURFACE PHYSICS MODULE WILL BE USED.



6. A MODIFIED HORIZONTAL ADVECTION ALGORITHM FOR CLOUD WATER...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND TURBULENT KINETIC ENERGY WILL BE USED.



7. THE WRF-NMM MODEL DYNAMICS WILL BE MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE EFFECTS OF GRAVITY-WAVE DRAG AND MOUNTAIN BLOCKING.



THE ANALYSIS CHANGES INCLUDE:



1. ASSIMILATION OF NEW OBSERVATION TYPES...INCLUDING AIRS AND GOES 1X1 RADIANCE DATA...ADDITIONAL SATELLITE WIND DATA...AND SURFACE MESONET WIND DATA.



2. REVISED BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCES TO IMPROVE THE ANALYSIS FIT TO THE OBSERVATIONS.



ALL WRF-NMM MODEL CHANGES WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPLEMENTED INTO THE DGEX.



IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGES TO THE NAM OUTPUT GRIDS BIT-DEFINITION SECTION...OTHER OUTPUT CHANGES INCLUDE:



1. ADDING FIVE NEW FIELDS TO THE NAM 32KM OUTPUT GRID #221 /AWIP32/ AND 12KM OUTPUT GRID #218 /AWIP12/: THE FIRST FOUR FIELDS ARE TOTAL COLUMN-INTEGRATED HEATING RATES:

CONVECTIVE...GRID-SCALE... LONGWAVE...AND SHORTWAVE. THE FIFTH ADDED FIELD WILL BE TOTAL COLUMN-INTEGRATED MOISTURE DIVERGENCE.



2. THE NAM HOURLY PROFILE DATA IN BUFR FORMAT HAS GAINED 17 NEW STATIONS.



THE COMBINED IMPACT OF THESE CHANGES HAS LED TO:



1. IMPROVED NAM FORECAST PERFORMANCE BASED ON QUANTITATIVE SKILL SCORES FOR HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURE /RMS ERROR AND BIAS/ OVER BOTH THE CONUS AND ALASKA...SPECIFICALLY IN REDUCING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC/850/700 MB/ COLD BIAS AND IMPROVED 10-M WIND FORECASTS.



2. IMPROVED NDAS/NAM SOIL MOISTURE STATES IN REGIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONUS.



MORE DETAILS ABOUT THESE CHANGES CAN BE SEEN AT:

WHEN IT BECOMES AVAILABLE...A COPY OF THE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOR THE NCEP DIRECTOR CAN BE FOUND AT:


DATA DELIVERY TIMING WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THIS IMPLEMENTATION.

THE NAM DELIVERY TIME WILL NOT CHANGE.



DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR SOME NAM OUTPUT GRIDS DUE TO GRIB BIT-MAP CHANGES CAUSED BY THE 18% INCREASE IN DOMAIN

SIZE...SPECIFICALLY:


1. OUTPUT FILES ON THE NAM NATIVE E-GRID WILL BE 18% BIGGER


2. OUTPUT GRIDS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A BITMAP FROM THE EXPANDED

NAM WILL BE 8-10 PERCENT SMALLER

3. OUTPUT GRIDS WITH SMALLER BITMAPS FROM THE EXPANDED NAM WILL

BE 1-8 PERCENT BIGGER

SIGNIFICANT DATA CONTENT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS MENTIONED EARLIER. THESE CONTENT CHANGES WILL IMPACT ALL DISSEMINATION ROUTES WHICH INCLUDE NOAAPORT...THE NWS PUBLIC FTP SERVER AND THE NCEP PUBLIC FTP SERVER. A CONSISTENT PARALLEL FEED OF DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER ONCE THE MODEL IS RUNNING IN PARALLEL ON THE NCEP CENTRAL COMPUTING SYSTEM. NCEP WILL SEND ANOTHER NOTICE ALERTING USERS TO THE LOCATION OF THESE DATA SETS ONCE THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

NCEP ENCOURAGES ALL USERS TO ENSURE THEIR DECODERS ARE FLEXIBLE AND ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY HANDLE CHANGES IN CONTENT ORDER...

PARAMETER FIELDS CHANGING ORDER...CHANGES IN THE SCALING FACTOR COMPONENT WITHIN THE PDS OF THE GRIB FILES AND ALSO ANY VOLUME CHANGES WHICH MAY BE FORTHCOMING. THESE ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE NCEP MODEL IMPLEMENTATIONS. NCEP WILL MAKE EVERY ATTEMPT TO ALERT USERS TO THESE CHANGES BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION.


morning NE. Gotta love these warm Apri... errr january mornings :)
Yeh,it was nice coming out this morning,but we both know it will come to an end,watching a band of showers approaching me,nothing serious,quick downpour.
yea NE it just came through here. Nothing to write home about. Waiting for the wind to come and make my day a mess.

Trying my damnedest to get ahead of the wind and keep the container field in order.
Even though some severe will be involved....wouldn't this be a welcome relief to many folks?
Sure hoping this works out:


Photobucket


sure would. hopefully the severe isnt so severe :/
Morning, getting blown away here! We had the squall line pass through at about 4:20 am and with it came hail and 65 mph winds. Rattled the house! Theres a bunch of power lines and trees down and the kids got a day off of school! They've been waiting for a snow day..who knew it would be a severe TS that would cancel the schools!
here's some interesting storm damage that was reported:
737 aircraft blown into jetway. Apparent Wing damage.
Reported by weather observer.
wow bunch of big shakers off British Columbia past few days. Most recently 4 minutes ago 6.2!!


look at this map

Yea lake noticed that storm report this AM. One hell of a wind gust to move a 737!!
Tornadoes,severe storms in January,earthquakes,whats next volcanoes erupting
wow...seismic activity! just 1 today and the others were over a day ago? seems odd..
sorry NE thats happening too :(


also a 3.1 eq this morning in Lake Erie!



Looking at reports out of syracuse winds from the west at 40mph with gusts to 60
lol,if I was a pessimist,I guess I would be preparing for the end of the world at this point.
are we back in action?
that was weird...did we just enter and leave a worm hole?
that was wierd.
whatever it was, i didn't like it.
wow. that was weird.

Here's a funny story...
Link

first I was talking to myself,then I wasn't even talking to myself
Link

and here's another about glowing pigs
did we enter the black hole again?