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Rare January tornado outbreak kills two, injures 100 in Alabama

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on January 23, 2012

The calendar says it's the coldest month of winter, but today's weather is more typical of March, as a vigorous spring-like storm system has spawned a rare and deadly January tornado outbreak. Twenty tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee last night and this morning, killing at least two, injuring 100, and causing major damage. Two deaths were reported in Canter Point and one unconfirmed death in Oak Grove in Alabama, from a tornado that ripped through the area near 3:30 am EST. The deaths were the first of the 2012 tornado season. In Clanton, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, a separate tornado hit near 8:12 am EST this morning, trapping people in overturned trailer homes, destroying the WKLF radio studio, and toppling a 302-foot high transmission tower.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 9:45 am EST Monday January 23, 2012, of the major spring-like storm that spawned tornadoes over the Southern U.S. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Clanton, Alabama this morning, trapping people in overturned trailer homes, destroying the WKLF radio studio, and toppling a 302-foot high transmission tower.

Significant historical January tornado outbreaks
Historically, January has been the least active month for tornadoes in the U.S. According to the Tornado History Project, during the 61-year period 1950 - 2010, 1223 January tornadoes occurred--an average of twenty per year. There have been two Januarys with no reported tornadoes--2003 and 1986. Thus far in 2012, there have been 44 preliminary tornado reports, so we are already at double the historical January average, with a week still to go in the month. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put Alabama and Georgia in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather the remainder of today, so it is likely we will add a few more tornadoes to this month's tally before the outbreak is finished. January 2012 appears likely to become one of the top-five busiest months for January tornadoes in recorded history. Only four years since 1950 have had more than 50 January tornadoes:

January 1999 218
January 2008 88
January 1975 54
January 1997 50

The most recent significant January tornado outbreak occurred last year on January 1, 2011, when seven tornadoes, including two EF-3s, touched down in Mississippi, injuring two people.

The most prolific January tornado outbreak on record occurred January 21 - 22, 1999, when 126 tornadoes, including one violent F-4, hit Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas, and Alabama, killing nine people. A separate outbreak four days earlier, on January 17, spawned 22 tornadoes.

On January 7 - 11, 2008, a series of 75 tornadoes hit the U.S. This second busiest-ever U.S. January tornado outbreak hit southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the surrounding areas the hardest. A strong supercell in northern Illinois and southeastern Wisconsin produced that region's first January tornadoes since 1967. Four people were killed, and the tornadoes did $88 million in damage. Fifteen strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes were reported.

The deadliest January tornado since record keeping began in 1950 occurred on January 23, 1969, when an F-4 tornado hit a 5-county region south of Jackson Mississippi, killing 32 people.

Spring-like thunderstorms hit Chicago
Thunderstorms along the cold front from the storm that spawned today's deadly tornadoes rumbled through Chicago, Illinois last night, dropping over one-half inch of rain on ground covered by four inches of snow. Spring-like January thunderstorms in Chicago used to be a rare occurrence, but have become increasingly common in recent years. During the 50-year period 1947- 1996, Chicago's O'Hare Airport recorded ten days with thunder, on days when the high temperature reached at least 40°F. In the 16-year period 1997- 2012, there have been nine such days, so January spring-like thunderstorms have roughly tripled in frequency in Chicago in recent years. January 2008 set the record for most January thunderstorm days in Chicago, with three.

Big solar flare headed toward Earth
This morning at 03:39 UTC, big sunspot 1402 erupted, sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) headed towards Earth. This CME is expected to set off a solar storm on January 24 - 25. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is advising that high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms; long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; possible changes in satellite drag affect orbit predictions. HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora may be seen as low as New York, Idaho, mid-Aleutians. According to NOAA, this is the strongest solar storm since May 2005.

Jeff Masters
Because the night belongs to lovers.
Because the night belongs to lovers.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the post Jeff.
Novelty: a complexification of information over a period of time
A nasty line, that one.
Hope that all goes well there.
Thank you, Dr. Masters.

Today's fatalities are the first tornado-related ones in January since that 2008 outbreak. To echo what others have said (and will say): I certainly hope this isn't a harbinger...
Strong M8.7 Event: A strong solar flare reaching M8.7 was generated by Sunspot 1402 in the northern hemisphere [Movie]. The flare peaked at 03:59 UTC Monday morning and started off an a long duration M1.0 event (LDE) before eventually rising again to its maximum.



An R2 Radio Blackout resulted. A 19 minute long, 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was detected as well. This event did produce a Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), and is partially Earth directed. Just like the previous event on Jan 19, most of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north. The speed of the expanding cloud however, is more substantial (2000 km/s). Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for all the latest information.

Video presentation is below.

Quoting Patrap:
Novelty: a complexification of information over a period of time


Obtuse Remark: - one that hurts my brain and sends me running for after-lunch coffee.

p.s., you need any of my rain??
Another well-above normal work week is in store for almost all of the United States. The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

The winter that never barely was. But don't fret, lovers of snow and cold; while December and January have no doubt let you down, we've still got February to deal with... ;-)
Last night showed once again, the importance of having a NOAA Weather Alert Radio, the life you save, may be your own.
Quoting pottery:


Obtuse Remark: - one that hurts my brain and sends me running for after-lunch coffee.

p.s., you need any of my rain??


We good. But thanx.
Thanks Doc.

Just out of curiosity, Dr. Masters, do you believe this is an indication of things to come?
12. CAAM
Quoting Patrap:
Last night showed once again, the importance of having a NOAA Weather Alert Radio, the life you save, may be your own.

And yes, there are Apps for that.
Hey all.. now that I live in tornado country.. I wanted to get automated severe weather alerts sent to my cell phone as a text message.. I see that TWC has that capability but cannot find it on Wunderground.. Anyone point me in the right direction on this?
Much thanks!
Yesterday 0.o

Today so far



Quoting JNCali:
Hey all.. now that I live in tornado country.. I wanted to get automated severe weather alerts sent to my cell phone as a text message.. I see that TWC has that capability but cannot find it on Wunderground.. Anyone point me in the right direction on this?
Much thanks!


try the NWS or something, they may have somethin like dat idk
Quoting JNCali:
Hey all.. now that I live in tornado country.. I wanted to get automated severe weather alerts sent to my cell phone as a text message.. I see that TWC has that capability but cannot find it on Wunderground.. Anyone point me in the right direction on this?
Much thanks!


Link

EDIT: Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link
Thanks TA13, just finished signing up for the text alerts.. I'm away from radios and outside often but usually in cell coverage out here.. no sirens (kind of surprising) in the county as far as I know...
Thanks again!
Damage in Fordyce, Arkansas. Based from what I saw in Sanford, NC on April 16 and little teaching from NWS Raleigh about rating tornadoes... I'll say this is high end EF3 to EF4 damage. But we don't know the rating until NWS Little Rock is done.

2 dead in Alabama as storms pound South, Midwest

Two people were killed in the Birmingham, Ala., area as storms pounded the South and Midwest, prompting tornado warnings in a handful of states early Monday. At least one of the areas affected by the storms, which were part of a system that stretched from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf of Mexico, was also hit by a line of killer storms that slammed the Southeast last April.


Residents walk around through the debris of their neighborhood after a severe storm ripped through the Trussville, Ala., area in the early hours of Monday, Jan. 23, 2012. Jefferson County sheriff's spokesman Randy Christian said the storm produced a possible tornado that moved across northern Jefferson County around 3:30 a.m., causing damage in Oak Grove, Graysville, Fultondale, Center Point, Clay and Trussville. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Alabama storms cause death, destruction gallery (6 photos)

Jefferson County sheriff's spokesman Randy Christian said a 16-year-old boy was killed in Clay and an 82-year-old man died in the community of Oak Grove.
The storm produced a possible tornado that moved across northern Jefferson County around 3:30 a.m., causing damage in Oak Grove, Graysville, Fultondale, Center Point, Clay and Trussville, Christian said. He said several homes were destroyed and numerous injuries were reported.
"Some roads are impassable, there are a number of county roads where you have either debris down, trees down, damage from homes," said Yasamie Richardson, a spokeswoman for the Alabama Emergency Management Agency. Jefferson County experienced "significant damage," she said.
Oak Grove was also hit during last April's tornadoes, but none of homes hit in April were hit again this time, said Allen Kniphfer of Jefferson County's Emergency Management Agency.
As day broke, rescue crews used chainsaws to clear fallen trees off roads in Clay, northeast of Birmingham. Searchers went door-to-door calling out to residents, many of whom were trapped by trees that crisscrossed their driveways.
Stevie Sanders woke up around 3:30 a.m. and realized bad weather was on the way. She, her parents and sister hid in the laundry room of their brick home as the wind howled and trees started cracking outside.
"You could feel the walls shaking and you could hear a loud crash. After that it got quiet, and the tree had fallen through my sister's roof," said Sanders, 26.
The family was OK, and her father, Greg Sanders, spent the next hours raking his roof and pulling away pieces of broken lumber.
"It could have been so much worse," he said. "It's like they say, we were just blessed."
In Clanton, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, rescuers were responding to reports of a trailer turned over with people trapped, City Clerk Debbie Orange said.
Also south of Birmingham, Maplesville town clerk Sheila Haigler said high winds damaged many buildings and knocked down several trees. One tree fell on a storm shelter, but no one was injured, Haigler said. One person was trapped in a heavily damaged home, but was rescued safely. Haigler said police had not been able to search some areas because trees and power lines were blocking roads.
In Arkansas, there were possible tornadoes in Arkansas, Dallas, Lonoke, Prairie and Cleveland counties Sunday night. The storms also brought hail and strong winds as they moved through parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Illinois and Mississippi.
Tornado warnings were issued for parts of Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama.
The storm also caused officials to reschedule a planned Monday meeting in Montgomery to receive a study on Alabama's response to a system of storms that raked the state last April. That storm killed more than 240 people in the state. Among the hardest hit areas then was Tuscaloosa, where 50 were killed.

Jay Reeves, Associated Press
Quoting Patrap:
Strong M8.7 Event: A strong solar flare reaching M8.7 was generated by Sunspot 1402 in the northern hemisphere [Movie]. The flare peaked at 03:59 UTC Monday morning and started off an a long duration M1.0 event (LDE) before eventually rising again to its maximum.



An R2 Radio Blackout resulted. A 19 minute long, 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was detected as well. This event did produce a Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), and is partially Earth directed. Just like the previous event on Jan 19, most of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north. The speed of the expanding cloud however, is more substantial (2000 km/s). Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for all the latest information.

Video presentation is below.

Extremely cool video Pat..Alright, I live over a thousand feet in the sky, at about 36 degrees north. It is January 23, I just had a massive squall line move over my area. Its 65 degrees outside with a W-NW wind blowing 15 to 25 mph. I have flowers blooming and a Tulip Poplar poppin tulips. My only guess is Mother Nature is doing the modern equivalent of smokin a big fatty. Godspeed to the folks that were hit last night...IT LOOKS LIKE SPRING HAS SPRUNG IN LATE JANUARY...huge ppppffffttttt...
I'll say Birmingham area tornado look VERY similar to Sanford damage on April 16... likely high end EF3 in my opinion. Again, not official rate until NWS Birmingham is done.
Quoting hydrus:
Extremely cool video Pat..Alright, I live over a thousand feet in the sky, at about 36 degrees north. It is January 23, I just had a massive squall line move over my area. Its 65 degrees outside with a W-NW wind blowing 15 to 25 mph. I have flowers blooming and a Tulip Poplar poppin tulips. My only guess is Mother Nature is doing the modern equivalent of smokin a big fatty. Godspeed to the folks that were hit last night...IT LOOKS LIKE SPRING HAS SPRUNG IN LATE JANUARY...huge ppppffffttttt...


Novelty will continue to create more and more events that are way beyond the norm. As the Time Wave compresses, more events, created by thought, all we have in this material world is brought about by thought, and the eschaton awaits, just over the Horizon.

As we Spiral down to it, the singularity.


Bananas trees dont create Bridges, neither does the Honey bee. They have all they need in Balance with Nature. Were so removed from nature and inter dependent on connectivity that well, its all moot.

This will fade like a dream upon awakening, soon
Something very interesting is going on in the Arctic Ocean.

Link

UK scientists have detected a huge dome of freshwater that is developing in the western Arctic Ocean.

The bulge is some 8,000 cubic km in size and has risen by about 15cm since 2002.

The team thinks it may be the result of strong winds whipping up a great clockwise current in the northern polar region called the Beaufort Gyre.

This would force the water together, raising sea surface height, the group tells the journal Nature Geoscience.

"In the western Arctic, the Beaufort Gyre is driven by a permanent anti-cyclonic wind circulation. It drives the water, forcing it to pile up in the centre of gyre, and this domes the sea surface," explained lead author Dr Katharine Giles from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at University College London.

"In our data, we see the trend being biggest in the centre of the gyre and less around the edges," she told BBC News.

Dr Giles and colleagues made their discovery using radar satellites belonging to the European Space Agency (Esa).

These spacecraft can measure sea-surface height even when there is widespread ice cover because they are adept at picking out the cracks, or leads, that frequently appear in the frozen floes.

The data (1995-2010) indicates a significant swelling of water in the Beaufort Gyre, particularly since the early part of the 2000s. The rising trend has been running at 2cm per year.

A lot of research from buoys and other in-situ sampling had already indicated that water in this region of the Arctic had been freshening.

This freshwater is coming in large part from the rivers running off the Eurasian (Russian) side of the Arctic basin.

Quoting Patrap:


Novelty will continue to create more and more events that are way beyond the norm. As the Time Wave compresses, more events, created by thought, all we have in this material world is brought about by thought, and the eschaton awaits, just over the Horizon.

As we Spiral down to it, the singularity.


Bananas trees dont create Bridges, neither does the Honey bee. They have all they need in Balance with Nature. Were so removed from nature and inter dependent on connectivity that well, its all moot.

This will fade like a dream upon awakening, soon
Somethings definitely going on. Its not just something I think. I can feel it....Have been for quite a while now...Possible snowstorm 264 hours out.?...BBBWWAAAHHH hhaaa haaa
Quoting pottery:
A nasty line, that one.
Hope that all goes well there.
Howdy Pott. I hope the mighty and omniscient Calabash Tree is still maintaining its affairs accordingly..Got whacked pretty good here 2 times in 48 hours. Where is winter?...................Next......
"The most dangerous thing on the planet. ...The idea that: Humans belong to an order of being that is separate from the rest of the living community." - Daniel Quinn in "The New Renaissance".

This idea is blatantly false but we act as though it is absolutely true. Such inconsistencies cannot last and truth wins. At that point we will be forced to recognize that what we've done to nature we've done to ourselves.
Quoting hydrus:
Somethings definitely going on. Its not just something I think. I can feel it....Have been for quite a while now...Possible snowstorm 264 hours out.?...BBBWWAAAHHH hhaaa haaa
What "snow storm" will be accuring???
Bounced around a bit the forecasts have, but steady for the last few days


Look good to anybody who want snow in E CONUS?
Since Dr Masters brought it up, I'm gonna repost these great photos.

Looks like it was another great night of auroras in Norway.


Link



Image taken by Bjørn Jørgensen.
Climate Prediction Center's update issued today has Nino 3.4 more colder as is down to -1.1C. Last week's update had it at -0.9C.

Link
NWS Little Rock officially rated damages in Fordyce as EF2 damage. Still not done rating tornado as that tornado may have travelled through 6 counties without lifting up. On Twitter, most professionals are predicting high end EF3 rating for tornado in Alabama. Haven't seen EF4 damage yet so I agree with them.
Offshore 6.2 quake causes panic, no tsunami in Chile

SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) %u2014 A magnitude-6.2 earthquake has struck just off the shore of south-central Chile, the area devastated by a massive temblor two years ago. There are no immediate reports of damage and authorities say it will not cause a tsunami.

Monday's quake was centered 31 miles (50 kilometers) northwest of Concepcion, and was relatively shallow at 12 miles (20 kilometers) under sea level. But Chile's navy announced that it wasn't the kind of quake to generate a deadly tsunami of the kind that ravaged nearby coastal cities when an magnitude-8.8 quake devastated Chile in 2010.

The U.S. Geological Service says the quake struck at 1:04 p.m. local time (1604 GMT). Chile's national emergency office says there are no immediate reports of injuries or damage.






Estimated Fatality rate


Estimated Economic Losses


Selected Cities Exposed from GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.


MMI City Population
VI Tome 47k
V Talcahuano 253k
V Penco 46k
V Bulnes 13k
V Coronel 93k
V Cauquenes 31k
V Concepcion 215k
IV Chillan 150k
IV Talca 197k
III Los Angeles 125k
III Curico 102k
Fordyce, Arkansas tornado was rated an EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.
On Twitter, Jim Cantore is saying that the Alabama tornado was likely an EF3, and the damage is "just terrible".

35. MTWX
Quoting SPLbeater:


try the NWS or something, they may have somethin like dat idk

wunderground does too. Over mine through here. There are also apps you can download, that even include the tornado siren feature that definitely loud enough to wake you at night.
Quoting Patrap:


Novelty will continue to create more and more events that are way beyond the norm. As the Time Wave compresses, more events, created by thought, all we have in this material world is brought about by thought, and the eschaton awaits, just over the Horizon.

As we Spiral down to it, the singularity.


Bananas trees dont create Bridges, neither does the Honey bee. They have all they need in Balance with Nature. Were so removed from nature and inter dependent on connectivity that well, its all moot.

This will fade like a dream upon awakening, soon


Email me please, I need to know what your talking about, thank you
Quoting hydrus:
Somethings definitely going on. Its not just something I think. I can feel it....Have been for quite a while now...Possible snowstorm 264 hours out.?...BBBWWAAAHHH hhaaa haaa


Maybe, maybe not, just weather

SolarHam.com FB

From the SWPC:

As the strongest Solar Radiation Storm (S3) since May, 2005 continues, the associated Earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive about 1400 UT (9am EST) Jan 24. SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch with G2 level storming likely and G3 level storming possible, with the storm continuing into Wednesday, Jan 25. All of this activity is related to a moderate (R2) Radio Blackout x-ray flare that erupted Sunday night (11pm EST).
Quoting percylives:
"The most dangerous thing on the planet. ...The idea that: Humans belong to an order of being that is separate from the rest of the living community." - Daniel Quinn in "The New Renaissance".

This idea is blatantly false but we act as though it is absolutely true. Such inconsistencies cannot last and truth wins. At that point we will be forced to recognize that what we've done to nature we've done to ourselves.
LOL..I dig your post..:) Religion itself is based on the very fact that we as "humans" believe in something greater than ourselves or our species. That in almost every conceivable way, we are separate from the supreme, omnipotent, ubiquitous and all knowing entity we call God, The Source, Master of Creation etc..We even follow in the footprints of our ancient ancestors, who wrote the history of religion and morality and how it affected there lives and the governments that ruled over them. In return, we live the after effects of other peoples old decisions whether they are right at present or not. It is up to us as a race to shape our environment whenever possible and adjust to it whenever necessary, but do it a way that is beneficial to the Earth and the creatures we share it with. It does make sense to me, simply because of the energy levels that exist,and what we know to be true about the Universe now, that there is somebody out there that is doing better than we are...pfft
Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe, maybe not, just weather
Maybe its the Earth sayin "hey.?" and slappin some of us around a little bit..Wuzup R.E.
The pkg is in your inbox ritaevac.
ritaevac - how much rain are you expecting through Thursday
Quoting hydrus:
Maybe its the Earth sayin "hey.?" and slappin some of us around a little bit..Wuzup R.E.


Yesterdays sand/dust storm over West TX has eavesdropped on us in SE TX. Redish/Brown dust on the cars in the parking lot. Sky is hazy too, should wash off the cars tomm and Wed.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (950 hPa) located at 19.2S 39.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 39.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 21.9S 38.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 23.2S 38.3E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 24.4S 38.6E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

The system has clearly intensify during the next 6 hours, with an eye better defined, always very small, but cooler, within a colder central dense overcast. The system show always an inner core very small with less than 60 NM diameter (refer to SMIS 1504z) with a curved band more than an half-turn.

Within the next 48 hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the near-equatorial mid-level highs prolonged by a ridge in the east of the system and is expected to keeps on tracking southwards. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 84 hours over high heat content waters.

At the end of the forecast range, system should track southeastwards undergoing the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge located on the southeast of Madagascar. It is expected to track over less warm waters and to weaken undergoing a strengthening westerly wind shear.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast all the tracks oversea in the middle of the channel. The probability for a landfall at short or medium range appears poor now.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
ritaevac - how much rain are you expecting through Thursday


Depends on where the development initiates and moves, I got hit head on in the last event with 6 inches of rain. Experts say same setup is in place as that last one, but I don't expect another 6 inches over my house again, but I'll take it again!
Quoting RitaEvac:


Depends on where the development initiates and moves, I got hit head on in the last event with 6 inches of rain. Experts say same setup is in place as that last one, but I don't expect another 6 inches over my house again, but I'll take it again!


I hear that! I got a little over 5" at my house. That heavy band set up right over the southern side of the city (right along 610). I would love it if we had that happen again
Not all religion is theistic.

Merriam-sez, theism:

"belief in the existence of a god or gods; specifically : belief in the existence of one God viewed as the creative source of the human race and the world who transcends yet is immanent in the world"

Wikipedia, "Nontheistic religions":

"Nontheistic religions are traditions of thought within religions, some otherwise aligned with theism, others not, in which nontheism informs religious beliefs or practices.[1] Nontheism has been applied to the fields of Christian apologetics and general liberal theology, and plays significant roles in Buddhism and Hinduism."
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I hear that! I got a little over 5" at my house. That heavy band set up right over the southern side of the city (right along 610). I would love it if we had that happen again


Supposed to....somewhere.
From Little Rock NWS, preliminary paths of last evening's tornadoes, including one obvious long-tracker:

It's a twister!
Clouds building down in S TX, front stalling out, return flow coming tonight, fuel is already beginning to form itself for the EVENT over TX, Incoming Low diving down over California, it's beginning.
From suburban Chicago here - a thunderstorm with 4" of snow on the ground was really quite odd. Lightning was much brighter since it was reflecting off of everything.

Thankfully winds weren't that bad, as there was a lot of snow still on trees.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
759 am CST Monday Jan 23 2012


Short term...

quasi-linear convective system /qlcs/ squall line feature sharpening somewhat as it was moving into the western portions of the forecast area. The line has been sub-severe limited by capping in the middle levels to inhibit updrafts though warm rain process and isolated lightning to be expected early this morning.
Winds are unidirectional southwest from surface through about 20kft with low speed shear. This frontal squall should continue to move east around 15 kts and be east of the forecast area by early afternoon.
Have indicated a stratification of rain chances from west to east for today. Other issue is warmer than previously indicated temperatures Post-frontal as Pacific air mass not holding much cold air advection...as indicated by upstream temperatures in Texas and Arkansas this morning.

Did raise maximum temperatures for today
closer to 70 as morning lows have held up overnight in areas where front already passed. For the remainder of the forecast area have indicated middle to upper 70s with some compressional heating pre- frontal baselined from unseasonably very warm overnight lows.

Rain and cloudiness to diminish throughout the afternoon with fair and mild conditions for tonight. Front does not get too far south before stalling and returning north as a warm front late Tuesday.
Warm frontogenesis over-running rain pattern likely to become established over the area with stratiform rain interspersed with elevated convection by late Tuesday into Tuesday night.


Long term...

Wednesday is expected to be quite warm with strong warm air advection pattern in place ahead of low latitude low pressure system moving out of Rio Grande Valley area. It still appears this system will come into the region with a negative tilt to provide a
heavy rain and potentially severe risk Wednesday night into early Thursday. After that last short-wave passes...a relatively long stretch of quieter days should evolve as flow becomes slightly cyclonic to nearly zonal aloft heading into the latter part of the
month.
Ok can somebody tell me what will happen with blocking in place at the current moment over 180W?
Yesterday in Texas -
Notice how dead everything appears :

Aqua/MODIS

2012/022

01/22/2012

20:00 UTC
Dust storm in northern Texas

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imager y/single.cgi?image=Texas.A2012022.2000.1km.jpg
Quoting bappit:
Not all religion is theistic.

Merriam-sez, theism:

"belief in the existence of a god or gods; specifically : belief in the existence of one God viewed as the creative source of the human race and the world who transcends yet is immanent in the world"

Wikipedia, "Nontheistic religions":

"Nontheistic religions are traditions of thought within religions, some otherwise aligned with theism, others not, in which nontheism informs religious beliefs or practices.[1] Nontheism has been applied to the fields of Christian apologetics and general liberal theology, and plays significant roles in Buddhism and Hinduism."
lmao...thanx for helpin out on that one Bap....Jesus...lol
Quoting MTWX:

wunderground does too. Over mine through here. There are also apps you can download, that even include the tornado siren feature that definitely loud enough to wake you at night.


Would take anything but Inaccuweather and TWC
Yep Patrap we are bound to (fix or break) something, it's a matter of semantics, that won't be so easily remedied.I think back to what an uneducated truck driver once told a fellow employee. No matter how smart you maybe there is enough you don't know about to make a whole universe out of. Still loving the weather underground. Keep up the good work my fellow weather nerds. Exception for Pat I don't know if we can call ex-jar head a nerd. Clarification needed.

Amateur operators report soft-ball sized hail 4 miles south of
England, Ark. Additionally, 2.75 inch (baseball-sized) hail was spotted
in Griffith Spring, Ark. by local law enforcement. Golf ball-sized to
baseball-sized hail was reported in Newport and Brinkley, Ark.

Golf ball-sized to baseball-sized hail reported in Newport and Brinkley, Ark.Accu report

Potent 97S


I havn't watched TWC in like ages.I forgot the last time I did.They suck now.They've turned into a weather/news(mind you the news has nothing to do with weather half the time,like the running for campaign of president).Once I saw that on there a few months ago I knew TWC had failed........
Quoting ColoradoBob1:

Amateur operators report soft-ball sized hail 4 miles south of
England, Ark. Additionally, 2.75 inch (baseball-sized) hail was spotted
in Griffith Spring, Ark. by local law enforcement. Golf ball-sized to
baseball-sized hail was reported in Newport and Brinkley, Ark.

Golf ball-sized to baseball-sized hail reported in Newport and Brinkley, Ark.Accu report

my god, those poor people there, imagine what happen to cars left outside, let alone what happened to people crazy enough to be walking around outside
And here is Cyclone Funso

Look good
Quoting washingtonian115:
I havn't watched TWC in like ages.I forgot the last time I did.They suck now.They've turned into a weather/news(mind you the news has nothing to do with weather half the time,like the running for campaign of president).Once I saw that on there a few months ago I knew TWC had failed........

Frankly, they're excellent for severe weather outbreaks. You should have seen them during the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I havn't watched TWC in like ages.I forgot the last time I did.They suck now.They've turned into a weather/news(mind you the news has nothing to do with weather half the time,like the running for campaign of president).Once I saw that on there a few months ago I knew TWC had failed........


COuldnt agree more!
Cyclone Funso 183000Z 1/23/12

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 971.0mb/ 72.2kt

Raw T# 6.5
Adj T# 4.9
Final T# 4.5
Quoting washingtonian115:
I havn't watched TWC in like ages.I forgot the last time I did.They suck now.They've turned into a weather/news(mind you the news has nothing to do with weather half the time,like the running for campaign of president).Once I saw that on there a few months ago I knew TWC had failed........

Wake up with Al ruined TWC.
They became crappy after that!
Madagascar advisory....

Warning Nr NR24/08 23/01/2012 1900 UTC
System: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

Estimated minimum central Pressure 940 HPA
Maxi average wind (10 mn) 100 KT (185 KM/H)
Gust maxi 140 KT (260 KM/H)
Quoting Articuno:

Wake up with Al ruined TWC.
They became crappy after that!


Maybe, but Stephanie Abrams sure didn't ruin anything...:D
Funso isn't looking so fun to be under right now.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Maybe, but Stephanie Abrams sure didn't ruin anything...:D

LOL.
Whats the odds that Funso makes landfall in Mozambique? Looks like it may get close ...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Frankly, they're excellent for severe weather outbreaks. You should have seen them during the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak.
I remembered turning it on just before tornado hit Birmingham area on April 27. You could see a HUGE mile long tornado in the background of Birmingham's skyline. Scariest LIVE TV event I've ever seen.
Have you ever taken a close look at stephanie Abrams body.
For a young gal she ain't much to look at.
Has a belly, large legs and a tuckis that won't quit,

I know I have been looking at fine women for years!
Funso is now the equivalent of a major hurricane on our Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and is displaying a beautiful pinhole eye. This is not common guys, so admire it while you can.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Maybe, but Stephanie Abrams sure didn't ruin anything...:D

LOL.
:)
Damn Funso, you so pretty.



Dvorak says category 4, but if it keeps this convection, category 5 is totally realistic.

Finally! Settled!!! Hope George Noory has this on his show tonight:Link
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yesterdays sand/dust storm over West TX has eavesdropped on us in SE TX. Redish/Brown dust on the cars in the parking lot. Sky is hazy too, should wash off the cars tomm and Wed.
Y,all are suppose to get more rain and a lot of it in some areas..The west will get jipped again.
Quoting hydrus:
Y,all are suppose to get more rain and a lot of it in some areas..The west will get jipped again.


Not this time
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not this time
Are you saying that the west will get some rain?
Quoting Articuno:

Wake up with Al ruined TWC.
They became crappy after that!
They were ruined because they were bought.
Quoting Articuno:

Wake up with Al ruined TWC.
They became crappy after that!


Nah... you're just upset he wouldn't give up his seat to Alex Van Halen.
Quoting hydrus:
Are you saying that the west will get some rain?


Believe so, from the I-35 corridor in Central TX and eastward
Quoting hydrus:
They were ruined because they were bought.


Back in the early 90's I lived off that channel. John Hope was the man!! Jim when he was a young'n....those were the days. I stayed up all the way through the Andrew debacle when they were covering it. I was only 10. lol Who needs cartoons at that age when you had the weather channel....;)
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Back in the early 90's I lived off that channel. John Hope was the man!! Jim when he was a young'n....those were the days. I stayed up all the way through the Andrew debacle when they were covering it. I was only 10. lol Who needs cartoons at that age when you had the weather channel....;)


Those were the good days as a kid, even had certain songs I liked hearing (local on the 8s now)
I remember when I was 10 in 1990 Hurricane Diana, watching John Hope and watching visible satellite when it hit 90mph during those summer days off and out swimming and for whatever reason I wanted that storm to come my way and tried eating this delicious cheesecake hoping that would make the storm come my way I remember when it was closer to the Yucatan compared to this image.



Here's a picture of the same tornado that demolished parts of Oak Grove and the Northern Birmingham metro.
Dvorak Intensity on Funso has raised to 84 knots. in 90 minutes a 12 knot change
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Nah... you're just upset he wouldn't give up his seat to Alex Van Halen.

..?
Funso is an extremely intense tropical cyclone. Very rare to see a storm this strong in the Mozambique Channel.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Dvorak Intensity on Funso has raised to 84 knots. in 90 minutes a 12 knot change


Err...what? Funso doesn't look like a category 2 hurricane to me. In fact, JTWC says its 115kts.
Latest JTWC update has Funso reaching 140kts! Current winds are at 115kts. Still not expected to hit land. :D
Funso is now a category 4 and is predicted to reach Category 5 intensity by Wednesday! Amazing!
Quoting yqt1001:
Latest JTWC update has Funso reaching 140kts! Current winds are at 115kts. Still not expected to hit land. :D


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_Island

small island lands though =P
I'm sure Nea is sweating bullets over the ice map, of so much ice out there. Latest ice maps for viewers out there

Quoting RitaEvac:
I remember when I was 10 in 1990 Hurricane Diana, watching John Hope and watching visible satellite when it hit 90mph during those summer days off and out swimming and for whatever reason I wanted that storm to come my way and tried eating this delicious cheesecake hoping that would make the storm come my way I remember when it was closer to the Yucatan compared to this image.



I have a clipping I saved out of the newspaper on that storm..Diana did serious damage with its second landfall, and the name retired....Link
The Birmingham, AL has been rated an EF3 per Justin Kenney, NOAA director of communications and external affairs.
Quoting RitaEvac:




It is way above average towards Alaska, and below towards Scandinavia. Hopefully it didn't hurt the crab fishing in Alaska.
Quoting Articuno:

..?


Link


Don't think Funso could get much smaller.
Quoting presslord:
Finally! Settled!!! Hope George Noory has this on his show tonight:Link


You missed it, presslord. Venus was last month and 6 months prior to that. George has now returned to Mars. ..... Again. ... 3 months ago George thought they had found a lot of hot air on Neptune. Turned out to be just another politician. sigh
Cyclone Funso now a category 4 in the Saffire-Simspon Scale
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Back in the early 90's I lived off that channel. John Hope was the man!! Jim when he was a young'n....those were the days. I stayed up all the way through the Andrew debacle when they were covering it. I was only 10. lol Who needs cartoons at that age when you had the weather channel....;)
Cantore wasnt too young. I believe he was 28 when Andrew hit. We were up that night in Port Charlotte wondering how much wind we would get. A few 50 mph gusts and that was all.
Quoting yqt1001:


Err...what? Funso doesn't look like a category 2 hurricane to me. In fact, JTWC says its 115kts.


If you read correctly that is the DVORAK INTENSITY NOT MY JUDGMENT
Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm sure Nea is sweating bullets over the ice map, of so much ice out there. Latest ice maps for viewers out there


A) Why would I "sweat bullets" if Arctic Sea ice were to magically refreeze? I'd be among the happiest people on earth if the planet somehow decided to stop warming.

B) Ice extent is very low at the moment--lower, in fact, than it was on this date during either of the two least icy years on record, 2007 and 2011:

Uh-oh
Quoting Neapolitan:

A) Why would I "sweat bullets" if Arctic Sea ice were to magically refreeze? I'd be among the happiest people on earth if the planet somehow decided to stop warming.

B) Ice extent is very low at the moment--lower, in fact, than it was on this date during either of the two least icy years on record, 2007 and 2011:

Uh-oh


Just messing with you Nea
Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm sure Nea is sweating bullets over the ice map, of so much ice out there. Latest ice maps for viewers out there



RitaEvac, when was the last time you saw a honey bee flying around Houston in January? I saw one this morning when I stopped for gas. The little fella landed right next to the gas door on my car. I also have two lizards lurking around my back door. They were active and in the shade. ... I just do not remember seeing these things before, in January. ... I got some pics of the lizards yesterday. They are young and I would say about half grown. .... Yes, I know. Winter is not over yet but, in January???
eating this delicious cheesecake hoping that would make the storm come my way
Quoting hydrus:
LOL..I dig your post..:) Religion itself is based on the very fact that we as "humans" believe in something greater than ourselves or our species. That in almost every conceivable way, we are separate from the supreme, omnipotent, ubiquitous and all knowing entity we call God, The Source, Master of Creation etc..We even follow in the footprints of our ancient ancestors, who wrote the history of religion and morality and how it affected there lives and the governments that ruled over them. In return, we live the after effects of other peoples old decisions whether they are right at present or not. It is up to us as a race to shape our environment whenever possible and adjust to it whenever necessary, but do it a way that is beneficial to the Earth and the creatures we share it with. It does make sense to me, simply because of the energy levels that exist,and what we know to be true about the Universe now, that there is somebody out there that is doing better than we are...pfft

lmao ... I suppose I understand all of that except the part: "Religion itself is based on the very fact that we as "humans" believe in something greater than ourselves or our species. That in almost every conceivable way, we are separate from the supreme, omnipotent, ubiquitous and all knowing entity we call God, The Source, Master of Creation etc., etc., etc. ... pfft" Not all religion rolls like that.
Quoting Ameister12:
Here's a picture of the same tornado that demolished parts of Oak Grove and the Northern Birmingham metro.
Now that's scary.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


RitaEvac, when was the last time you saw a honey bee flying around Houston in January? I saw one this morning when I stopped for gas. The little fella landed right next to the gas door on my car. I also have two lizards lurking around my back door. They were active and in the shade. ... I just do not remember seeing these things before, in January. ... I got some pics of the lizards yesterday. They are young and I would say about half grown. .... Yes, I know. Winter is not over yet but, in January???


It's very common, especially during warm spells, lizards always come out when they can get a chance when it's warm to feed. Honey bees too, when it's warm that's work to be done and gather food even if it's dead of winter
Wish the TPW imagery worked over land.

Quoting RitaEvac:


It's very common, especially during warm spells, lizards always come out when they can get a chance when it's warm to feed. Honey bees too, when it's warm that's work to be done and gather food even if it's dead of winter


They don't sit idle like humans, they take advantage to get out when nature calls for it
Quoting Ameister12:
Here's a picture of the same tornado that demolished parts of Oak Grove and the Northern Birmingham metro.

I wish I was up to watch that.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Maybe, but Stephanie Abrams sure didn't ruin anything...:D


Actually she did, shes annoying in my opinion. She tries so hard to make meteorology as less scientific as possible, which aggravates me very much. I realize that the science must be simplified for TV. But she simplifies it to the point of falsehood and downright inaccuracy.

Nothing drives me more nuts then a meteorological explanation that is down right wrong just to simplify things for people.

Like I remember her discussing the super outbreak in Alabama last year and saying it was because of clashing air masses of hot and cold. Ughhhh......


I realize they can't get into the complex dynamical process too far but there are ways of simplifying weather for TV without being inaccurate and sounding silly to weather geeks like me.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually she did, shes annoying in my opinion. She tries so hard to make meteorology as less scientific as possible, which aggravates me very much. I realize that the science must be simplified for TV. But she simplifies it to the point of falsehood and downright inaccuracy.

Nothing drives me more nuts then a meteorological explanation that is down right wrong just to simplify things for people.

Like I remember her discussing the super outbreak in Alabama last year and saying it was because of clashing air masses of hot and cold. Ughhhh......


I realize they can't get into the complex dynamical process too far but there are ways of simplifying weather for TV without being inaccurate and sounding silly to weather geeks like me.


+100
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's very common, especially during warm spells, lizards always come out when they can get a chance when it's warm to feed. Honey bees too, when it's warm that's work to be done and gather food even if it's dead of winter


I guess so. I just do not remember seeing these things so early in the year before now. And, yes, it is the warmth that brought them out. I will have to see how our January temps compared to previous years. I know that last winter was more winter than I like To see! One extreme to another. I will take this year over last year. ... So far.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually she did, shes annoying in my opinion. She tries so hard to make meteorology as less scientific as possible, which aggravates me very much. I realize that the science must be simplified for TV. But she simplifies it to the point of falsehood and downright inaccuracy.

Nothing drives me more nuts then a meteorological explanation that is down right wrong just to simplify things for people.

Like I remember her discussing the super outbreak in Alabama last year and saying it was because of clashing air masses of hot and cold. Ughhhh......


I realize they can't get into the complex dynamical process too far but there are ways of simplifying weather for TV without being inaccurate and sounding silly to weather geeks like me.


I've got her on facebook, just to see what she says, talks about sports, it's all fun and games and the people (the public) are just downright stupid. Just added her to see pics of her....
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I guess so. I just do not remember seeing these things so early in the year before now. And, yes, it is the warmth that brought them out. I will have to see how our January temps compared to previous years. I know that last winter was more winter than I like To see! One extreme to another. I will take this year over last year. ... So far.


I'd take this warm January and a wet spring and summer than a cold January last year and no rain in spring and summer
Quoting RitaEvac:


They don't sit idle like humans, they take advantage to get out when nature calls for it


Hey! I am like the other critters around here. If it is cold, you will not see me. When it is warm, I will be out in view. LOL I am impressed by those that can endure the cold winters. This should not imply that I would wish to join them. ;-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Birmingham, AL has been rated an EF3 per Justin Kenney, NOAA director of communications and external affairs.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...UPDATE FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY TORNADO...

METEOROLOGISTS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL SURVEYING NUMEROUS
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO CONFIRM TORNADO DAMAGE. SURVEY
TEAMS ARE SCHEDULED FOR TUSCALOOSA...JEFFERSON...CALHOUN AND ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES TODAY. OTHER DAMAGE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE SURVEYED ON TUESDAY.

TEAM ONE: JEFFERSON COUNTY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM WILL BE SURVEYING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE JEFFERSON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
DETERMINE THE PATH LENGTH AND WIDTH OF A LONG TRACK TORNADO THAT
CROSSED THROUGH NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. METEOROLOGISTS WENT TO
THE HARDEST HIT AREAS TODAY AND DID CONFIRM AN EF-3 TORNADO STRUCK
THE TOWN OF CLAY. WIND SPEEDS FROM THIS TORNADO WERE ESTIMATED AT
150 MPH.


TEAM TWO: TUSCALOOSA COUNTY

METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE CONDUCTING
SURVEYS IN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY. A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM FORMED
OVER THE COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND PRODUCED DAMAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

TEAM THREE: ST. CLAIR AND CALHOUN COUNTIES

METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE CONDUCTING
SURVEYS IN ST. CLAIR AND CALHOUN COUNTIES TODAY. A SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM FORMED OVER THE COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND PRODUCED DAMAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

Link
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hey! I am like the other critters around here. If it is cold, you will not see me. When it is warm, I will be out in view. LOL I am impressed by those that can endure the cold winters. This should not imply that I would wish to join them. ;-)


coward, it is warm up here............ Give it a try. :) It will build your survival skills............ OR I guess now it is "Preper skills"..
Storm system to bring beneficial rain and severe thunderstorm threat to south central Texas...

An approaching upper level storm system and associated cold front
will affect south central Texas beginning Tuesday and continuing
through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will begin across the western
Hill Country and Edwards Plateau late Tuesday... then expand and
spread east with time affecting the Interstate 35 corridor early
Wednesday morning. Storms are forecast to exit into East Texas.

Some of these storms may become severe Tuesday night. The main
threat across western portions of south central Texas will be
large hail. Across eastern portions of the area... the main threat
will be from damaging winds. In addition... locally heavy rainfall
is possible along and east of Highway 281.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wish I was up to watch that.

I woke up around 6 am and watched ABC 33/40. I think they showed that picture around 6:30. It's very surreal and scary to see such a large tornado at night, destroying such a heavily populated area. I'd love to see video of that tornado.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually she did, shes annoying in my opinion. She tries so hard to make meteorology as less scientific as possible, which aggravates me very much. I realize that the science must be simplified for TV. But she simplifies it to the point of falsehood and downright inaccuracy.

Nothing drives me more nuts then a meteorological explanation that is down right wrong just to simplify things for people.

Like I remember her discussing the super outbreak in Alabama last year and saying it was because of clashing air masses of hot and cold. Ughhhh......


I realize they can't get into the complex dynamical process too far but there are ways of simplifying weather for TV without being inaccurate and sounding silly to weather geeks like me.


Just a comment about what you said, while its tough as you said to "dumb" down the weather for the viewer, you also don't want to get too scientific, in fact the less scientific the better. I hate it too as a broadcast meteorologist, but 95% of my viewers don't care about why its going to rain, just want to know when, how much, and what will the temperature be when I walk out the door. Also in defense of Stephanie, most people aren't watching in the morning, but listening as they get ready, so a verbal relationship is very important. Severe weather is a bit of a different animal. This is about the only time we can get a little technical or scientific, also to display some credibility as a met.
Quoting 1911maker:


coward, it is warm up here............ Give it a try. :) It will build your survival skills............ OR I guess now it is "Preper skills"..


I have lived, for short periods of time, in Canada, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin. No matter how hard I have searched, I cannot think of anything I have left in any of those places. I must be honest and admit that I left each place before full blown winter set in. ... In Ohio, I had to walk uphill to school and uphill back home again! .... Stupid valleys! LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hey! I am like the other critters around here. If it is cold, you will not see me. When it is warm, I will be out in view. LOL I am impressed by those that can endure the cold winters. This should not imply that I would wish to join them. ;-)
I can stand the cold.I stood out in 20 degree weather with the wind blowing(and strangly) loved it :).
Rookie see snow depth last year:

Link

And no snow depth this year.

Link

This year would be an easy transition and break in period. IF the warmests are right, this will be the norm. Then you could stay. :) IF the deniers are correct, then you would have to adapt a bit more.

-40F is not so bad once you get used to it. However, I do not think I have seen it for about 20 years, makes me wonder if the warmests might be right...............I still remember -40F pretty well as it leaves a lasting impression.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can stand the cold.I stood out in 20 degree weather with the wind blowing(and strangly) loved it :).


I can actually take the 20 degrees quite well, as long as there is NO wind blowing. The wind cuts through me like a hot knife through butter. I get cold riding a motorcycle at 60 mph on a 60 degree day. shiver
have any one seen this yet?

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can stand the cold.I stood out in 20 degree weather with the wind blowing(and strangly) loved it :).


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I can actually take the 20 degrees quite well, as long as there is NO wind blowing. The wind cuts through me like a hot knife through butter. I get cold riding a motorcycle at 60 mph on a 60 degree day. shiver


ha, 20 F is not cold. light jacket weather.
Quoting 1911maker:
Rookie see snow depth last year:

Link

And no snow depth this year.

Link

This year would be an easy transition and break in period. IF the warmests are right, this will be the norm. Then you could stay. :) IF the deniers are correct, then you would have to adapt a bit more.

-40F is not so bad once you get used to it. However, I do not think I have seen it for about 20 years, makes me wonder if the warmests might be right...............I still remember -40F pretty well as it leaves a lasting impression.


I appreciate the offer, 1911maker. However there is your comment:

"I still remember -40F pretty well as it leaves a lasting impression." - I fear too many of those "lasting" impressions would on the form of missing fingers and toes. ;-) I may not have the best fingers and toes around but, they are my fingers and toes and I aim to keep them just as they are. ;-)
134. flsky
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Have you ever taken a close look at stephanie Abrams body.
For a young gal she ain't much to look at.
Has a belly, large legs and a tuckis that won't quit,

I know I have been looking at fine women for years!


And this matters why?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I appreciate the offer, 1911maker. However there is your comment:

"I still remember -40F pretty well as it leaves a lasting impression." - I fear too many of those "lasting" impressions would on the form of missing fingers and toes. ;-) I may not have the best fingers and toes around but, they are my fingers and toes and I aim to keep them just as they are. ;-)


But then when you type silly stuff you can blame it on missing parts.........I can still count to 20 so my excuse most be some other parts that got frozen.......
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I can actually take the 20 degrees quite well, as long as there is NO wind blowing. The wind cuts through me like a hot knife through butter. I get cold riding a motorcycle at 60 mph on a 60 degree day. shiver
I also enjoy lot's of snow(like 15+ inches) while other people in the area complain.I think it's lovley.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I can actually take the 20 degrees quite well, as long as there is NO wind blowing. The wind cuts through me like a hot knife through butter. I get cold riding a motorcycle at 60 mph on a 60 degree day. shiver



You are tougher than I. I have lived in some cold places. The coldest had to be Germany. Where I once managed to knock myself out cold on a frozen river. Lol. Ice is not my friend. I lived in DC that was pretty cold at times. Even El Paso had its snow. But I loved the weather there! I may be a desert person at heart. But after years in this swamp I've gotten spoiled. Now if it drops below 60 I don't want to get out of bed. Lol.
Quoting 1911maker:




ha, 20 F is not cold. light jacket weather.
(Sticks out tounge).I've been in colder weather,and my husband thinks that I've gone mad.I don't mind 90 degree weather as well.I'm just strange when it comes to weather.
Quoting flsky:


And this matters why?
That post had me laughing even though it was pretty mean.It sounded kind of arrogant.(The post you qouted).
Quoting washingtonian115:
I also enjoy lot's of snow(like 15+ inches) while other people in the area complain.I think it's lovley.


I am going to have to assume you have never had to deal/live with a lot of snow.
Quoting Tazmanian:
have any one seen this yet?

Link

That's scary wierd.
Quoting washingtonian115:
(Sticks out tounge).I've been in colder weather,and my husband thinks that I've gone mad.I don't mind 90 degree weather as well.I'm just strange when it comes to weather.


here is the shovel, and the 50 yard drive way...............:)
142. DDR
Good evening
Yet another 1.5 inches of rain today in Trinidad,which brings my 3 day rainfall total to 4.5 inches,i've got 8 inches this month and the monthly average is just about 3 inches.Major rivers are swollen almost to flood stage,i hope this stops soon.
Quoting Chucktown:


Just a comment about what you said, while its tough as you said to "dumb" down the weather for the viewer, you also don't want to get too scientific, in fact the less scientific the better. I hate it too as a broadcast meteorologist, but 95% of my viewers don't care about why its going to rain, just want to know when, how much, and what will the temperature be when I walk out the door. Also in defense of Stephanie, most people aren't watching in the morning, but listening as they get ready, so a verbal relationship is very important. Severe weather is a bit of a different animal. This is about the only time we can get a little technical or scientific, also to display some credibility as a met.


That is true, I agree. I just get frustrated with that sometimes. The fact that people also demand the weather the way they do without taking some things into consideration it makes it hard as a meteorologist.

If you say forecast a 30 or 40% chance of storms and it doesn't rain you might get yelled at by people saying "hey you weather people suck you told it me it was gonna rain I bet I could do your job better"

Similar to how, you know football fans see their home team collapse and they also think they could literally do better. That type of junk from people drives me absolutely nuts, I have a hard time not getting angry at such attitudes and terrible thinking. Anyways... I better get my mind off that ridiculousness so I don't stay angry haha
and when you are done, the plow comes by and you have to do it again, but the snow is "harder".

Quoting 1911maker:


I am going to have to assume you have never had to deal/live with a lot of snow.
Quoting 1911maker:


here is the shovel, and the 50 yard drive way...............:)
During the blizzard back in Feb 2010 I dug out two trucks,a van and a car along with shovel the sidewalk(my husband did the house).I'm actually pretty physically fit because I was in the army for a while and still working out.I have know problem shovling which is why after big snow storms my neighboors secretly envy me.BTW I lived in germany for about two years when I was younger.I've seen lot's of snow(15 feet at one time).
Quoting Articuno:

That's scary wierd.


not sure it is weird, but it is troubling.
Quoting Articuno:

That's scary wierd.


Especially if you have a hard drive full of illegal downloads from that site and you just clicked on it!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I also enjoy lot's of snow(like 15+ inches) while other people in the area complain.I think it's lovley.


As do I. Everyone hated Snowmaggeddon, but I was (literally) dancing in the snow-covered streets!
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Especially if you have a hard drive full of illegal downloads from that site and you just clicked on it!!!


The government can take my 4.8 GB of illegal downloads and shove them where the sun don't shine....
Quoting washingtonian115:
During the blizzard back in Feb 2010 I dug out two trucks,a van and a car along with shovel the sidewalk(my husband did the house).I'm actually pretty physically fit because I was in the army for a while and still working out.I have know problem shovling which is why after big snow storms my neighboors secretly envy me.BTW I lived in germany for about two years when I was younger.I've seen lot's of snow(15 feet at one time).


Ok, warped. :)

I used to be fit, but I still hated moving and dealing with snow.

You sound like a friend of mine who just got snowed on in Chicago a few days ago. He was unhappy because it was not his "turn" to use the Skid Steer loader to clear the parking lot.

I am really enjoying this open, warm, and very strange winter. The possible implications, not so much.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


As do I. Everyone hated Snowmaggeddon, but I was (literally) dancing in the snow-covered streets!
I probally spoiled by the winter of 09-10.I enjoyed seeing 5 feet of snow in my yard after the blizzards came from back to back.Of course we had to shovel,but we built a huge snowman.
I wonder what impact the solar activity will have on the ISS....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The government can take my 4.8 GB of illegal downloads and shove them where the sun don't shine....


Careful now... " Big brother is watching you!!!"

Link

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Careful now... " Big brother is watching you!!!"

Link


Orwell is turning in his grave at what the governments can (legally) do now...
Quoting 1911maker:
Rookie see snow depth last year:

Link

And no snow depth this year.

Link

This year would be an easy transition and break in period. IF the warmests are right, this will be the norm. Then you could stay. :) IF the deniers are correct, then you would have to adapt a bit more.

-40F is not so bad once you get used to it. However, I do not think I have seen it for about 20 years, makes me wonder if the warmests might be right...............I still remember -40F pretty well as it leaves a lasting impression.
not far from you last year Jan 21st 39.3 below last time -40 or greater was 2008
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The government can take my 4.8 GB of illegal downloads and shove them where the sun don't shine....

I don't have any illegal downloads on my computer to tell the truth.
Quoting presslord:
I wonder what impact the solar activity will have on the ISS....


I wonder how it will affect the folks in it? My limited (and probably flawed) understanding is they are getting a lot of radiation exposure.
Quoting 1911maker:


I wonder how it will affect the folks in it? My limited (and probably flawed) understanding is they are getting a lot of radiation exposure.


I suspect you're right....
Quoting nymore:
not far from you last year Jan 21st 39.3 below last time -40 or greater was 2008


how long did it last? I remember when I was young, the -40F would hang around for a week or two beginning of Jan. I was in western ND. I remember hauling around drunks on New Years night in -40F often.
Quoting Jedkins01:


That is true, I agree. I just get frustrated with that sometimes. The fact that people also demand the weather the way they do without taking some things into consideration it makes it hard as a meteorologist.

If you say forecast a 30 or 40% chance of storms and it doesn't rain you might get yelled at by people saying "hey you weather people suck you told it me it was gonna rain I bet I could do your job better"

Similar to how, you know football fans see their home team collapse and they also think they could literally do better. That type of junk from people drives me absolutely nuts, I have a hard time not getting angry at such attitudes and terrible thinking. Anyways... I better get my mind off that ridiculousness so I don't stay angry haha


Yes, it is very frustrating at times. The main thing to realize is that when "weather" is actually happening, this is the time to shine, not when its sunny and 80. There are so many weather outlets out there and the convenience factor these days is incredible. Weather drives local news, so when there is a severe outbreak or a hurricane is threatening a specific location, this is when the meteorology side takes over.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
6:00 AM FST January 24 2012
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1001 hPa) located at 24.0S 176.6W is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection displaced east of low level circulation center. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone and south of 250HPA ridge axis. System is steered southeastwards by northwest deep layer mean wind flow into an area of strong shear. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700HPA.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it southeastwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Orwell is turning in his grave at what the governments can (legally) do now...


Link

Warrantless GPS Tracking Unconstitutional, Supreme Court Rules.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Careful now... " Big brother is watching you!!!"

Link

I thought pedobear was watching?.I could be right....
Quoting 1911maker:


how long did it last? I remember when I was young, the -40F would hang around for a week or two beginning of Jan. I was in western ND. I remember hauling around drunks on New Years night in -40F often.
lows around -30 for 4 or 5 days nothing unusual
Quoting washingtonian115:
I thought pedobear was watching?.I could be right....

LOL.
Quoting bappit:
eating this delicious cheesecake hoping that would make the storm come my way
lmao ... I suppose I understand all of that except the part: "Religion itself is based on the very fact that we as "humans" believe in something greater than ourselves or our species. That in almost every conceivable way, we are separate from the supreme, omnipotent, ubiquitous and all knowing entity we call God, The Source, Master of Creation etc., etc., etc. ... pfft" Not all religion rolls like that.
I should have said " many religions " I know not all religions identify humans as living creatures with "spiritual powers" presided over by angelic beings, so when we die the soul, returning to its maker, each in accordance with its earthly ties, will arrived unmasked for judgement. The thought that we are suppose to live according to the will of a God or Gods is as old as mankind itself. Believing in a higher power is common, but there is a percentage of people on Earth that do not believe in God or the like. The Christian Empire is an attempt to mirror the order of heaven. In order to get to heaven, we are to embrace a set of laws provided by God to reach the place from which we originated. The goodness that exists within our societies is there to help or aid willing souls to find salvation. There are so many different views and doctrines on religion, it takes years of study just to learn a fraction of them. I have always had an open mind when it comes to the topic. I simply believe that good wins, and evil loses..:)...I hope folks forgive my off topic post. I wanted to address a couple of earlier posts regarding the subject.---------This was one of them......26. percylives 6:00 PM GMT on January 23, 2012 9
"The most dangerous thing on the planet. ...The idea that: Humans belong to an order of being that is separate from the rest of the living community." - Daniel Quinn in "The New Renaissance".

This idea is blatantly false but we act as though it is absolutely true. Such inconsistencies cannot last and truth wins. At that point we will be forced to recognize that what we've done to nature we've done to ourselves.
Quoting 1911maker:


I wonder how it will affect the folks in it? My limited (and probably flawed) understanding is they are getting a lot of radiation exposure.


On the NOAA scale of radiation storms, this one ranks S3, which means it could, e.g., cause isolated reboots of computers onboard Earth-orbiting satellites and interfere with polar radio communications.

Link

Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.

Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.

*** High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.



From spaceweather.com

Link

Quoting Patrap:


Earth, WorldView from wunder photographer's


thanks Pat, I did not know that "part" of WU was there.
Quoting 1911maker:


thanks Pat, I did not know that "part" of WU was there.


The blogs are only, well use about 2-3 % of the Wu server on the Busiest days.

The wunderphoto section is really a Great place to check out as well. I do usually during lunch on my FB page.

Lotsa items drop down in the header menu on top this page.

90% of what I use during the Tropical Season is on the Tropical/Hurricane wu page.

Its under Severe Weather
The most optimistic forecast for my area. :)

Several inches of rain in forecast during next two days
January 23, 2012 11:18 AM
Scott Lawrence

SOUTHEAST TEXAS - Several inches of rain is in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday when a series of upper level lows moves across the region.

KFDM meteorologists say there's a 60% chance of rain Tuesday, 90% Wednesday and 40% Thursday.

Some areas could see as much as 6 inches of rain between Tuesday and Wednesday.



Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


On the NOAA scale of radiation storms, this one ranks S3, which means it could, e.g., cause isolated reboots of computers onboard Earth-orbiting satellites and interfere with polar radio communications.

Link

From spaceweather.com

Link



thanks for the links

time to go do some real work.........
Planes expected to reroute following massive solar eruption.

Link
Quoting JNCali:
Hey all.. now that I live in tornado country.. I wanted to get automated severe weather alerts sent to my cell phone as a text message.. I see that TWC has that capability but cannot find it on Wunderground.. Anyone point me in the right direction on this?
Much thanks!

At the risk of sound silly, no you don't. I have that, you get alarms every 5 seconds for severe weather that doesn't have any immediate impact. I call them Wolf boxes because they cry wolf so much that when the real thing shows up you'll probably miss it.
Keep your eyes on wunderground radar and local weather alerts that go out by text. Local TV stations will put small radar and weather alerts on screen that gives specific localize information. They get paid to listen to the Wolf box.
Geomagnetic Storm Watch: The latest Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should impact our geomagnetic field within 24-48 hours. The SWPC issued a Geomagnetic Storm watch for Jan 24. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com, where you will get all of the latest updates promptly.


From the SWPC: As the strongest Solar Radiation Storm (S3) since May, 2005 continues, the associated Earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive about 1400 UT (9am EST) Jan 24. SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch with G2 level storming likely and G3 level storming possible, with the storm continuing into Wednesday, Jan 25. All of this activity is related to a moderate (R2) Radio Blackout x-ray flare that erupted Sunday night (11pm EST).

SOHO movie
Quoting hydrus:
I should have said " many religions " I know not all religions identify humans as living creatures with "spiritual powers" presided over by angelic beings, so when we die the soul, returning to its maker, each in accordance with its earthly ties, will arrived unmasked for judgement. The thought that we are suppose to live according to the will of a God or Gods is as old as mankind itself. Believing in a higher power is common, but there is a percentage of people on Earth that do not believe in God or the like. The Christian Empire is an attempt to mirror the order of heaven. In order to get to heaven, we are to embrace a set of laws provided by God to reach the place from which we originated. The goodness that exists within our societies is there to help or aid willing souls to find salvation. There are so many different views and doctrines on religion, it takes years of study just to learn a fraction of them. I have always had an open mind when it comes to the topic. I simply believe that good wins, and evil loses..:)...I hope folks forgive my off topic post. I wanted to address a couple of earlier posts regarding the subject.------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ---- This was one of the posts...............The most dangerous thing on the planet. ...The idea that: Humans belong to an order of being that is separate from the rest of the living community." - Daniel Quinn in "The New Renaissance".

This idea is blatantly false but we act as though it is absolutely true. Such inconsistencies cannot last and truth wins. At that point we will be forced to recognize that what we've done to nature we've done to ourselves.


Cant git to heaven from good works, no sireeee....

Nice Aurora above the Faroe Islands - Photo submitted by Jan Egholm

Quoting presslord:
Carolina,s
Speaking of religion, was it okay that I wrote on my voters registration for Religion as ''the force''?
Quoting Articuno:

I don't have any illegal downloads on my computer to tell the truth.


I have no comment about possibilities on mine.....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speaking of religion, was it okay that I wrote on my voters registration for Religion as ''the force''?


That right is Guaranteed in The Constitution,which is written on hemp.

er,Huh, what we're we talking about?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speaking of religion, was it okay that I wrote on my voters registration for Religion as ''the force''?


hey man if u want to discuss religion and that stuff either write a blog on it or put the content on my blog...evidently talking about dat leads to un-intentional arguments and added haters:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I have no comment about possibilities on mine.....


I wonder if my "system'",,,can take da fifth?
Quoting hydrus:
I should have said " many religions " I know not all religions identify humans as living creatures with "spiritual powers" presided over by angelic beings, so when we die the soul, returning to its maker, each in accordance with its earthly ties, will arrived unmasked for judgement. The thought that we are suppose to live according to the will of a God or Gods is as old as mankind itself. Believing in a higher power is common, but there is a percentage of people on Earth that do not believe in God or the like. The Christian Empire is an attempt to mirror the order of heaven. In order to get to heaven, we are to embrace a set of laws provided by God to reach the place from which we originated. The goodness that exists within our societies is there to help or aid willing souls to find salvation. There are so many different views and doctrines on religion, it takes years of study just to learn a fraction of them. I have always had an open mind when it comes to the topic. I simply believe that good wins, and evil loses..:)...I hope folks forgive my off topic post. I wanted to address a couple of earlier posts regarding the subject.---------This was one of them......26. percylives 6:00 PM GMT on January 23, 2012 9
"The most dangerous thing on the planet. ...The idea that: Humans belong to an order of being that is separate from the rest of the living community." - Daniel Quinn in "The New Renaissance".

This idea is blatantly false but we act as though it is absolutely true. Such inconsistencies cannot last and truth wins. At that point we will be forced to recognize that what we've done to nature we've done to ourselves.



Oh geeze not more religious debates on this blog... lol


I broke out da big paddle to stir the, er, "cauldron" tonight.



Carolinas Campaign
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Carolinas Campaign
Part of the American Civil War


..upon reading further, I declare, I see this!!!

Eureka, the mythical land found!

The Carolinas Campaign was the final campaign in the Western Theater[1] of the American Civil War. In January 1865, Union Maj. Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman advanced north from Savannah, Georgia, through the Carolinas, with the intention of linking up with Union forces in Virginia. The defeat of Confederate Gen. Joseph E. Johnston's army at the Battle of Bentonville in March, and its surrender in April, represented the loss of the final major army of the Confederacy.
I think that will vouch as my sarcastic post of the day.

Or as the stormtrooper would say given the now sudden appropriateness of the reference..

''Move along''
Funso eye VERY small
Quoting SPLbeater:
Funso eye VERY small

The storm is weakening, has probably lost Category 4 status by now.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Cant git to heaven from good works, no sireeee....

Can you get to heaven when unknowingly being baptized by a sinful clergy.?
Quoting hydrus:
Can you get to heaven when unknowingly being baptized by a sinful clergy.?


baptizm dont git u nowhere either

it just an outward display to everybody else that you are saved now
Quoting Jedkins01:



Oh geeze not more religious debates on this blog... lol


I very rarely do it...Please forgive me..:)
Quoting SPLbeater:


baptizm dont git u nowhere either
So you just accept Jesus, and your flung into heaven...Is that it.?
Quoting hydrus:
Can you get to heaven when unknowingly being baptized by a sinful clergy.?


as a Catholic...I sure hope so ;-)
UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUgh.Are we actually talking about religion again???.Let people accept what they accept.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speaking of religion, was it okay that I wrote on my voters registration for Religion as ''the force''?
You are guaranteed by the Constitution of the United States to practice and embrace the religion of your choice... The Force being protected as well.
Quoting hydrus:
So you just accept Jesus, and your flung into heaven...Is that it.?


accept Jesus Christ as your personal savior, asking him to come into your heart and cleanse it from all your sins. your name is then written in the Lambs Book of Life and you will be able to go to heaven when you die, or when the rapture comes.

Romans 10:13 For whosoever calleth upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.

Romans 6:23 For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.
Quoting washingtonian115:
UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU UU UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUgh.Are we actually talking about religion again???.Let people accept what they accept.
I apologize...I quit...
Quoting SPLbeater:


accept Jesus Christ as your personal savior, asking him to come into your heart and cleanse it from all your sins. your name is then written in the Lambs Book of Life and you will be able to go to heaven when you die, or when the rapture comes.

Romans 10:13 For whosoever calleth upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.

Romans 6:23 For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.

Hush.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The storm is weakening, has probably lost Category 4 status by now.


Funso-ver for him.
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Funso-ver for him.


lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU UU UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUgh.Are we actually talking about religion again???.Let people accept what they accept.


im sorry i am only defending the true ways to git to heaven. my apologies. RELIGIOUS TALK TO MY BLOG OR WRITE ONE TO DEBATE...since it isnt free here lol

St. John 14:6 Jesus saith unto them, "I am the way, the truth, and the life. no man cometh unto the father but by me."
Quoting SPLbeater:


accept Jesus Christ as your personal savior, asking him to come into your heart and cleanse it from all your sins. your name is then written in the Lambs Book of Life and you will be able to go to heaven when you die, or when the rapture comes.

Romans 10:13 For whosoever calleth upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.

Romans 6:23 For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.
I thought God is in the T.V.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hush.


woops im sorry you said it last night if you dont like my talk then click the button :D

im answering comments sir!
Quoting SPLbeater:


woops im sorry you said it last night if you dont like my talk then click the button :D

im answering comments sir!

ohhhh no, don't copy what I said. :P

You're a good blogger, I just don't like it when y'all talk about religion because it always leads to arguments. And arguments lead to banning.
Quoting nymore:
I thought God is in the T.V.


? where n the world did u hear dat?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ohhhh no, don't copy what I said. :P


lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


? where n the world did u hear dat?
Marilyn Manson LMFAO
WE NOW RESUME WEATHER WITH THIS UNHELPFUL ASCAT OF FUNSO lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ohhhh no, don't copy what I said. :P

You're a good blogger, I just don't like it when y'all talk about religion because it always leads to arguments. And arguments lead to banning.


yea ur rite there. I can tolerate this stuff on my blog if nybody feels the need to continue with it.
Quoting presslord:


as a Catholic...I sure hope so ;-)
LOL..There s always Pelagianism.. Hope you are well Press....Next rain maker in 84 hours..Da NAM model..
Quoting nymore:
Marilyn Manson LMFAO


-.- xD
Watch the CME Photons strike the spacecrafts detectors soon after..


sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov

Awesome..

One would have been a solar Ham fer sure..
Quoting nymore:
I thought God is in the T.V.
No. He,s in my wallet..hhhaaaaaa.
List of all F5 and EF5 tornadoes since 2007. Note that before 2011, it had been 3 years since a tornado that strong. Then look at the string 2011 had...

Hey, he started it! (Did not/too.)
Here in Huntsville, AL it is not rare to have these tornadoes come through in January. It is rare that they kill people this time of year, but we have a lot more people than we did in 1950.
Anybody know what could keep an elevated mixed layer from coming over SE Texas? It seems to be a semi-permanent feature.
222. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
List of all F5 and EF5 tornadoes since 2007. Note that before 2011, it had been 3 years since a tornado that strong. Then look at the string 2011 had...

Truely strange...... sad to see things are starting off bad this year..... hopeing none of these tornadoes were EF 5, that would just be strange. Hey I just noticed this is my first post of the year if I remember right.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
List of all F5 and EF5 tornadoes since 2007. Note that before 2011, it had been 3 years since a tornado that strong. Then look at the string 2011 had...

I don't think we'll see a year like 2011 for along long time(probally not again in my life time ).The 2011 tornado season was like the 2005 atlantic hurricane season.
224. j2008
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think we'll see a year like 2011 for along long time(probally not again in my life time ).The 2011 tornado season was like the 2005 atlantic hurricane season.

Lets hope we dont have a combo this year or a Cane season like the Epac was last year where 80-90% of the storms were canes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think we'll see a year like 2011 for along long time(probally not again in my life time ).The 2011 tornado season was like the 2005 atlantic hurricane season.

I don't know...This year has already started off worse than 2011. We're slightly ahead in the number of tornadoes now compared to last year.

Quoting Patrap:
From Lowercal's blog

live aurora cam: Kiruna, Sweden,
Very cool link Pat .
Quoting j2008:

Lets hope we dont have a combo this year or a Cane season like the Epac was last year where 80-90% of the storms were canes.
Some years we have combo's of both(2008 for an exsample).I'm not sure how this hurricane season is going to turn out.I just hope it's not like 09 again.That was the dead season as I call it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know...This year has already started off worse than 2011. We're slightly ahead in the number of tornadoes now compared to last year.

But if you really think about it EF 5's are really rare.Even ef 4's.But then again the sst in the gulf have not really cooled off and could fuel storms through the rest of this winter and sring.
FWIW Don't know if this has been mentioned here before. No time to read back.

From the BBC:

Arctic Ocean freshwater bulge detected

kinda of a side question but could Funso actually become one of the strongest cyclones ever in that basin based on the fact that the forecast calls for a cat 5 equivalent?
One of the best (and recently improved) aurora cams:
http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/
Enjoy and good night from Germany, Barb.
Link


Scientists say fears of "Arctic tipping point" may be unfounded.
Article from The BBC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hush.
Huuuush hush.Keep it down,down voices carry....
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
FWIW Don't know if this has been mentioned here before. No time to read back.

From the BBC:

Arctic Ocean freshwater bulge detected


Yeah, it was mentioned earlier today. Also, there's this:

Any of you guys discovered how useful simuawips is yet?
Looks like a little cool front this weekend for south Florida...




Now that's some hi quality h2o!
Cat 1:Not that fun
Cat 2: You look like a fool
Cat 3:May we evacuate please
Cat 4:I'm not staying around to see any more
Cat 5:If you don't leave you won't have no life.
Cat 6:Does that even exist??
Quoting barbamz:
One of the best (and recently improved) aurora cams:
http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/
Enjoy and good night from Germany, Barb.
Thank you.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Link


Scientists say fears of "Arctic tipping point" may be unfounded.
Article from The BBC.


NOW DOUG.......What are you doing trying to get some on here all messed up....they are already having a hard time in life now your really messing with them....LOL
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 19.8S 39.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T 6.0/6.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.4S 38.7E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.4S 38.4E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 23.6S 38.3E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 24.7S 38.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

The system has clearly intensify during the next 12 hours, with an eye better defined, always very small, but cooler, within a colder central dense overcast. The system show always an inner core very small with less than 60 NM diameter (refer to SSMIS 1504z) with a curved band more than an half-turn.

Within the next 48 hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the near-equatorial mid-level highs prolonged by a ridge in the east of the system and is expected to keeps on tracking southwards. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 60 hours over high heat content waters.

At the end of the forecast range, system should track southeastwards undergoing the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge located on the southeast of Madagascar. It is expected to track over less warm waters and to weaken undergoing a strengthening westerly wind shear.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast all the tracks oversea in the middle of the channel.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting SPLbeater:


woops im sorry you said it last night if you dont like my talk then click the button :D

im answering comments sir!
Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the
kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in
heaven.  Mathew 7:21 KJV

Might want to lay off the proof texts for a bit and try to comprehend the Sermon on the Mount.  Much of what you write makes me wonder if you do.

Then shall he answer
them, saying, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye did it not to one of
the least of these, ye did it not to me. Mathew 25:31-46



Apologies to the rest of you, but some ignorance is hard to ignore. Promise to come "the season."
Where is KOTG??.And here is a link to a weather website you guys might like Link
Here's some more great news...

Big Tokyo earthquake likely 'within the next few years'

The chance of a big earthquake hitting the Japanese capital in the next few years is much greater than official predictions suggest, researchers say.

The team, from the University of Tokyo, said there was a 75% probability that a magnitude seven quake would strike the region in the next four years.

The government says the chances of such an event are 70% in the next 30 years.

The warning comes less than a year after a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan's north-eastern coast.

The last time Tokyo was hit by a big earthquake was in 1923, when a 7.9 magnitude quake killed more than 100,000 people, many of them in fires.

Researchers at the University of Tokyo's earthquake research institute based their figures on data from the growing number of tremors in the capital since the 11 March 2011 quake.

They say that compared with normal years, there has been a five-fold increase in the number of quakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area since the March disaster.

They based their calculations on data from Japan's Meteorological Agency, They said their results show that seismic activity had increased in the area around the capital, which in turn leads to a higher probability of a major quake.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
kinda of a side question but could Funso actually become one of the strongest cyclones ever in that basin based on the fact that the forecast calls for a cat 5 equivalent?


CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010)
======================================

905 hPa pressure

10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots

------

pretty much the last system in that basin with the JTWC 140 knot winds speed.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's some more great news...

Big Tokyo earthquake likely 'within the next few years'

The chance of a big earthquake hitting the Japanese capital in the next few years is much greater than official predictions suggest, researchers say.

The team, from the University of Tokyo, said there was a 75% probability that a magnitude seven quake would strike the region in the next four years.

The government says the chances of such an event are 70% in the next 30 years.

The warning comes less than a year after a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan's north-eastern coast.

The last time Tokyo was hit by a big earthquake was in 1923, when a 7.9 magnitude quake killed more than 100,000 people, many of them in fires.

Researchers at the University of Tokyo's earthquake research institute based their figures on data from the growing number of tremors in the capital since the 11 March 2011 quake.

They say that compared with normal years, there has been a five-fold increase in the number of quakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area since the March disaster.

They based their calculations on data from Japan's Meteorological Agency, They said their results show that seismic activity had increased in the area around the capital, which in turn leads to a higher probability of a major quake.
SARCASM FLAG ON HIGH.
Guess you folks aren't hip to www.simuawips.com



Wonderful resource for us weather weenies.



Quoting Neapolitan:

A) Why would I "sweat bullets" if Arctic Sea ice were to magically refreeze? I'd be among the happiest people on earth if the planet somehow decided to stop warming.

B) Ice extent is very low at the moment--lower, in fact, than it was on this date during either of the two least icy years on record, 2007 and 2011:

Uh-oh


Rita doesn't seem to understand arctic ice.

First, it is still much lower than where it should be. All the standard cryosphere sites that I'm aware of indicate this. Ice volume is even more abysmal. The ice is most certainly not recovering.

Second, ice comes back every arctic winter. The problem is, it isn't thick multi-year ice. It's brittle, thin, new ice. This ice makes no difference to volume or extent until it can survive for more than a year. Otherwise it is just part of the normal ice flux in the arctic.

As Nea said, it would be wonderful if the ice was recovering. A lot of climate scientist would, contrary to Rita's belief, be equally happy. But it isn't recovering.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Guess you folks aren't hip to www.simuawips.com



Wonderful resource for us weather weenies.



I was going to pull it Doug..Crazy busy.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Quoting SPLbeater:
Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the
kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in
heaven.  Mathew 7:21 KJV

Might want to lay off the proof texts for a bit and try to comprehend the Sermon on the Mount.  Much of what you write makes me wonder if you do.

Then shall he answer
them, saying, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye did it not to one of
the least of these, ye did it not to me. Mathew 25:31-46



Apologies to the rest of you, but some ignorance is hard to ignore. Promise to come "the season."


your hair is gonna get all messed up if you keep tilting at those windmills...


Funso... could be a Category 5 tomorrow! Bad news for Mozambique.
Katia TCR will probably be out at the next few hours or tomorrow how do i know is secret i think she peak at 140
Quoting Thrawst:


Funso... could be a Category 5 tomorrow! Bad news for Mozambique.
Cool pic.
Quoting allancalderini:
Katia TCR will probably be out at the next few hours or tomorrow how do i know is secret i think she peak at 140

You know because the best track on the storm has been released. :)
Quoting Articuno:

I don't have any illegal downloads on my computer to tell the truth.


Honestly, I believe it is more "illegal" for the government to grant perpetual copyrights than it is for someone to download "Steamboat Willy". Seriously, 99 years plus life of author is just plain stupid.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Quoting SPLbeater:
Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the
kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in
heaven.  Mathew 7:21 KJV

Might want to lay off the proof texts for a bit and try to comprehend the Sermon on the Mount.  Much of what you write makes me wonder if you do.

Then shall he answer
them, saying, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye did it not to one of
the least of these, ye did it not to me. Mathew 25:31-46



Apologies to the rest of you, but some ignorance is hard to ignore. Promise to come "the season."


would also be nice if you knew what Christ was talking about before you loose your head trying to correct a follower. I am a Christian, i know the right from wrong in terms of the path to heaven and what isnt. No one can intimidate that. including, YOU
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Honestly, I believe it is more "illegal" for the government to grant perpetual copyrights than it is for someone to download "Steamboat Willy". Seriously, 99 years plus life of author is just plain stupid.


Also anti-capitalistic. Adam Smith, for instance, felt that if a company set up a trade route then it should be able to make a profit for awhile (to recoup their cost and to make some profit), but eventually be open to the public otherwise it is like enacting a tax on all for the benefit of a few wealthy merchants.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You know because the best track on the storm has been released. :)
Yep
Presslord,he's pressed for weather.LOLOL.I'm sorry I just couldn't hold it in I tried so hard.But it was just their.
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Also anti-capitalistic. Adam Smith, for instance, felt that if a company set up a trade route then it should be able to make a profit for awhile (to recoup their cost and to make some profit), but eventually be open to the public otherwise it is like enacting a tax on all for the benefit of a few wealthy merchants.


I like that idea, some noticeable flaws, but it's a nice theory.
Impressive storm.





Visible is going to look hot tonight if Funso can maintain himself.
Quoting presslord:


your hair is gonna get all messed up if you keep tilting at those windmills...


Yea, but occasionally you score a hit.

Quoting SPLbeater:


would
also be nice if you knew what Christ was talking about before you loose
your head trying to correct a follower. I am a Christian, i know the
right from wrong in terms of the path to heaven and what isnt. No one
can intimidate that. including, YOU

My DDD (Dear Departed Dad) always said:  "You throw a rock into a pack of dogs, usually the first one that yelps is the one you hit." 

You yelped first, but I think I hit somewhere else this time.  ;^)~
I think there is a problem with the Dvorak Intensity. it is showing a Raw T# of 4.0....and we know that a 115kt cyclone is no where near as low as 4.0.....more like 6.0
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I believe in the Flying Spaghetti Monster. May he touch thee with his Noodly Appendage and anoint thee with sauce from his Meat Balls. Ramen, my brothers and sisters. Ramen.

This message brought to you by the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

So wait,
God is a flying spaghetteh monster?
:o
I. AM. CONFUSED.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Quoting presslord:
Yea, but occasionally you score a hit.

My DDD (Dear Departed Dad) always said:  "You throw a rock into a pack of dogs, usually the first one that yelps is the one you hit." 

You yelped first, but I think I hit somewhere else this time.  ;^)~


I never brought up the subject because some forgot the constitution and try to tell me to stop(without ackowledging the ignore button) and I answered a comment by hydrus and CyberTeddy. wasnt your conversation but u jumped in so....
Madagascar advisory on 08R


Warning Nr NR25/08 24/01/2012 0100 UTC --
System INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE / CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE --
Name FUNSO --
Position NEAR 19° 7 S - 39° 3 E 24/01/2012 0000 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure 932 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre 110 KT (200 KM/H) --
Gust maxi 150 KT (280 KM/H) --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 6.5-

Seems like all the Southern Hemisphere activity this season has been in the Southwest Indian...
Quoting SPLbeater:
I think there is a problem with the Dvorak Intensity. it is showing a Raw T# of 4.0....and we know that a 115kt cyclone is no where near as low as 4.0.....more like 6.0


2012JAN24 020000 5.5 942.3/ +1.4 /102.0 5.0 6.0 6.1

CI: 5.5

Final 5.0
Initial 6.0
Raw is 6.1
Quoting SPLbeater:
I think there is a problem with the Dvorak Intensity. it is showing a Raw T# of 4.0....and we know that a 115kt cyclone is no where near as low as 4.0.....more like 6.0


Pinhole eye not showing up for the Dvorak analysis?

If you blur out the eye with a bunch of deep convection, it could probably end up with a mid category 1 intensity rating.



Wow, very impressive numbers - pressure keeps falling rapidly, now down to 932 - winds have increased to 110kts\125mph with gusts of over 170mph (!!!) and Dvorak is up to 6.5... just how strong can Funso get, can anyone shed some light on the conditions during the next day or two it has to intensify further?
Quoting skycycle:
Wow, very impressive numbers - pressure keeps falling rapidly, now down to 932 - winds have increased to 110kts\125mph with gusts of over 170mph (!!!) and Dvorak is up to 6.5... just how strong can Funso get, can anyone shed some light on the conditions during the next day or two it has to intensify further?


EWRC will be the main threat over the next day, but the current core that it has is only a day old, and without dry air to induce an EWRC prematurely, we might go over 18 hours until one happens.

CIMSS shows that Funso is heading for a more favourable environment. With minimal shear and dry air.

All Conflict arises from Human Thought..
Quoting Articuno:

So wait,
God is a flying spaghetteh monster?
:o
I. AM. CONFUSED.

They have internet connections but do not connect.
Quoting skycycle:
Wow, very impressive numbers - pressure keeps falling rapidly, now down to 932 - winds have increased to 110kts\125mph with gusts of over 170mph (!!!) and Dvorak is up to 6.5... just how strong can Funso get, can anyone shed some light on the conditions during the next day or two it has to intensify further?


environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 60 hours over high heat content waters. The system should track southeastwards undergoing the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge located on the southeast of Madagascar and track over less warm waters and strengthening westerly wind shear.
Good reading on EML's here.

"If the EML did not exist, then the Plains severe storm environment would be entirely different. For one, there would be no dryline. For the EML not to exist, one would have to remove the Rockies and desert southwest. Then of course you wouldn't get a lee trough. So like the dryline, the EML is an integral part of the Plains' severe storm environment. The EML is a basic concept that must be understood and appreciated by forecasters."
So.... what day are they announcing the official retirements of the 2011 storms?
34th session of the RA IV hurricane committee from April 11 to April 15 in 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Pinhole eye not showing up for the Dvorak analysis?

If you blur out the eye with a bunch of deep convection, it could probably end up with a mid category 1 intensity rating.





it has bounced from 4.0 to 6.1 every 30 minutes. kind of pathetic if you ask me lol. But yes the eye could be why it has bounced so low is that it aint seen at a glance
Unfortunately, bad news from Mozambique and Malawi:

Cyclone Funso kills 12 in Mozambique

Malawi faces Cyclone Funso as floods displace 450 families

Coupled with the 15 people confirmed dead in the shipwreck a few days earlier this raises the total death toll to at least 27.
yqt1001, look at the Adj T# here....good thing is the Final stayed put
Quoting SPLbeater:
yqt1001, look at the Adj T# here....good thing is the Final stayed put


The day that this is a category 2 hurricane is the day I die. :P
Quoting yqt1001:


The day that this is a category 2 hurricane is the day I die. :P


lol, i wouldnt take it that far...ok so you gon put the knife to your wrist if the next advisory says 90 knots? LOL, i would hope not! Funso is having fun with light wind shear..How about I scream potatoes if it reached Category 5 status xD
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol, i wouldnt take it that far...ok so you gon put the knife to your wrist if the next advisory says 90 knots? LOL, i would hope not! Funso is having fun with light wind shear..How about I scream potatoes if it reached Category 5 status xD


I think it gets up to 135 knots and falls just short of cat 5 status....
SUPER NINO! lol


Don't expect this at least until december 2012, or 2013, but 2013 will likely be a lot less active then the season previous... At last a break you can say, though we don't know what 2012 will throw at us or if it will.

Forecasts: <- that's right FORECASTS
2012:
16 NS
7 HUR
5 Intense HUR

2013: <- what they hey, RIGHT?
9 to 13 Named storms
2 to 6 Hurricanes
No to 2 Major hurricanes

Details on 2012:
The La nina is finished, and we will slowly glide down back into neutral like June 2011, though it will arrive this year about a month earlier.(May 2012, will likely be when the neutral is in full swing) Though unlike 2011, the La nina returns in december, 2012 will differ, and likely give up the La Nina streak from 2010 to now, this will impact greatly to how the heart and end to the hurricane season will play out, if the neutral event collapses early(around the peak of the season) then the US could have some open spots for storms to take shots, before the full el nino pattern takes place. Once the El Nino pattern is in place, whether it be september or november, activity could drop or be about average...
Also this means that 2013 would likely end up being less active, unless there is an event reversal around the mid to end of the year...
Well thats my thoughts toward this.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it gets up to 135 knots and falls just short of cat 5 status....


im not gonna guess cuz i dont want to

WxgeekVA - 135 knots= 155.25mph. your slick lol

im giving it 139.13043 knots

Go get your calculator lol


one of Australia region cyclone potential.
Quoting SPLbeater:


im not gonna guess cuz i dont want to

WxgeekVA - 135 knots= 155.25mph. your slick lol

im giving it 139.13043 knots

Go get your calculator lol



160.108 MPH eh? I'll see your 160.108 MPH/139.13043 knots and raise you 135.12537 knots....

Funso TRMM pass. Click pic for quicktime.. Hot tower there on the last frame.
anybody here got some toy soldiers
Massive mesoscale convective system off northern Australia in the Timor Sea near Darwin.




All quiet on the eastern front. And with that, I say goodnight.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Massive mesoscale convective system off northern Australia in the Timor Sea near Darwin.




Also known as 98S. Click pic for loop.

A strengthening monsoon trough is located near the north coast and at 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low [998 hPa] was located near 11.3S 131.5E, approximately 30 km west of Cape Don, moving west at 5 km/h. The low is expected to start moving southwards today and move inland over the Top End on Wednesday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is likely during today over parts of the northern Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts, particularly near the north coast, including the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula. Heavy rain may extend further south into the Darwin-Daly district on Wednesday
Goodnight all
Quoting SPLbeater:
Goodnight all
later

ps, lol @tebow
Quoting Skyepony:


Also known as 98S. Click pic for loop.

Yeah 98s. Aqua satellite picked up some -100c cloud tops...topping off the chart. Link
First vis of Funso.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
SUPER NINO! lol


Don't expect this at least until december 2012, or 2013, but 2013 will likely be a lot less active then the season previous... At last a break you can say, though we don't know what 2012 will throw at us or if it will.

Forecasts: <- that's right FORECASTS
2012:
16 NS
7 HUR
5 Intense HUR

2013: <- what they hey, RIGHT?
9 to 13 Named storms
2 to 6 Hurricanes
No to 2 Major hurricanes

Details on 2012:
The La nina is finished, and we will slowly glide down back into neutral like June 2011, though it will arrive this year about a month earlier.(May 2012, will likely be when the neutral is in full swing) Though unlike 2011, the La nina returns in december, 2012 will differ, and likely give up the La Nina streak from 2010 to now, this will impact greatly to how the heart and end to the hurricane season will play out, if the neutral event collapses early(around the peak of the season) then the US could have some open spots for storms to take shots, before the full el nino pattern takes place. Once the El Nino pattern is in place, whether it be september or november, activity could drop or be about average...
Also this means that 2013 would likely end up being less active, unless there is an event reversal around the mid to end of the year...
Well thats my thoughts toward this.

Silly guy

You can't forecast 2013 23 days into 2012

Silly guy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Silly guy

You can't forecast 2013 23 days into 2012

Silly guy
well you can certainly try

You'd be better off flipping a coin though lol
la nina is still strong its a -1.1C now thats moderate it wont fully dissipate till either april or may. it will be hard for an el nino to form until october i would say if that happens we could get away with an inactive year because if an el nino forms once the season is ending its effects arent felt till a month or more later therefore if this event does occur and el nino lasts but falls apart by next june we could miss out an inactive hurricane season but that is WAY too far to make any calls right now im thinking neutral throughout the peak of hurricane season (warm neutral) 14 TS 8H and 4MH
Cloudsat caught Funso today..





Tom~ 98S looks like an awful flood coming.
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Also anti-capitalistic. Adam Smith, for instance, felt that if a company set up a trade route then it should be able to make a profit for awhile (to recoup their cost and to make some profit), but eventually be open to the public otherwise it is like enacting a tax on all for the benefit of a few wealthy merchants.


The whole point of copyright and patents was to facilitate creativity and innovation. Get authors and inventors creating, give them a limited temporary monopoly to profit, then put it all in the public domain so others could freely improve/expand upon it.

Now copyrights and patents are used as corporate sledgehammers to crush and stifle creativity and innovation. Corporations have entire departments dedicated to intellectual property. There are companies now that don't even produce anything. They just buy up patents and wait for someone to do something that infringes so they can submarine them for a few million.

Pretty sad.
wunderweatherman123~ This week's ENSO numbers came close to wronging the we've seen La Nina peak comments. 98S is going to drop the pressure at Darwin driving SOI up this week too. ESPI is still holding at -1.52 (or it's quit updating).. I agree this La Nina is in no hurry to end.
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat caught Funso today..





Tom~ 98S looks like an awful flood coming.


Losts of moisture with this one Skye!

La Nia events tend to begin in autumn, mature during winter, spring and early summer, then begin to decay in late summer. Events generally end in the autumn. The greatest impact normally occurs during the winter, spring and early summer period, and is shown here in darker blue.

La Nia events normally last for around a year, however they can be shorter, or much longer.


Seems the more fitting statement would be that "We really don't have a clue how long La Nina lasts, we just like to look good on paper".
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
La Ni�a events tend to begin in autumn, mature during winter, spring and early summer, then begin to decay in late summer. Events generally end in the autumn. The greatest impact normally occurs during the winter, spring and early summer period, and is shown here in darker blue.

La Ni�a events normally last for around a year, however they can be shorter, or much longer.


Seems the more fitting statement would be that "We really don't have a clue how long La Nina lasts, we just like to look good on paper".


Hey,PP. Long time no see. We've been having some nice weather this Winter down here, haven't we? How have you been?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know...This year has already started off worse than 2011. We're slightly ahead in the number of tornadoes now compared to last year.

Let me say there's no way there will be a month period as bad as April 25th - May 25th for another century or two. I mean, 6 EF5s? Around 1000 tornadoes in April or May alone? 500 deaths? 3000 injuries? Countless major towns being wiped off of map? There's no way this will happen again for century or two. These storms was truly "The Outbreak of the Century"... it's heart breaking :\
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let me say there's no way there will be a month period as bad as April 25th - May 25th for another century or two. I mean, 6 EF5s? Around 1000 tornadoes in April or May alone? 500 deaths? 3000 injuries? Countless major towns being wiped off of map? There's no way this will happen again for century or two. These storms was truly "The Outbreak of the Century"... it's heart breaking :\


I seem to recall Mike Bettes saying the same thing about the 2005 hurricane season when 2004 was so terribly destructive.

For clarity's sake, I pretty much agree with you, but it's still well within the realm of statistical possibility.
Quoting SPLbeater:


would also be nice if you knew what Christ was talking about before you loose your head trying to correct a follower. I am a Christian, i know the right from wrong in terms of the path to heaven and what isnt. No one can intimidate that. including, YOU


Why do you see everything as an affront to your faith? Seriously, grow up.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 20.5S 39.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
18 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.5S 39.2E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.0S 40.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

After a maximum at 2030 PM UTC yesterday, system intensity has rapidly fluctuated in relationship with its small size. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 120 NM central dense overcast.

Within the next 24 hours, Funso remains under the steering influence of a ridge situated in the east and is expected to keep a southward track. Beyond, ridge moves away eastward as a shallow trough transist in the south of the system from west to east. Funso might decelerate and take a south southeastward track. Within the next 48 hours, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters.

From j+3, system should continue to track southeastward by accelerating with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might progressively weaken.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 PM WST January 24 2012
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 112.6E or 680 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.5S 110.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.9S 109.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.5S 109.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.1S 109.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

System assigned T1.0 at 00Z. Yesterday the cloud system center could not be defined in an area less than 2.5 degrees. Overnight convection consolidated near a developing low level circulation center. ASCAT and visible imagery show the low level circulation center gradually becoming better defined but low level cloud lines are still poorly organized.

The system has shown further improvement over the last 6 hours and FT is set at 1.5. Shear is generally low south of 15S and models indicate the system will experience low shear for the next 72 hours. Combined with sea surface temperatures over 30 degrees the system is expected to develop faster than the standard Dvorak rate and may reach tropical cyclone intensity by early tomorrow.

The subsequent track may develop on the rate of intensification with some models indicating the system will take a southerly or south southeasterly track on Thursday. On Friday the system is likely to be near 20S. Sea surface temperature decrease south of 20S and the system is likely to be slow moving which may cause upwelling and reduce Sea surface temperatures. As shear remains light, weakening in the longer term is more likely to be due to low oceanic heat content.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain strong over the next few days, resulting in strong northwesterly flow extending well to the east of the system center and bringing moderate swell and increased rainfall to coastal areas of the Pilbara and Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST January 24 2012
================================================= ===

An active monsoon trough is located near the north coast. A Tropical Low, 999 hPa, was located near 11.6S 131.3E at 12:30pm CST on 24 January, about 100 km north northeast of Darwin and moving southwest at 7 km/h. The low is expected to take a more southerly track later today then move inland over the Top End tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Hurricane damage to surge

The impact of climate and demographic changes may make serious storms like Hurricane Katrina more frequent occurrences, according a recently published study.

The economic damage from hurricanes may quadruple by the end of the century as populations, global wealth and the temperature of the earth increase, according to research conducted by professors from Yale and MIT. The study, published Jan. 15 in Nature Climate Change, also concludes that the United States is uniquely vulnerable to the forecasted cyclones. The study’s authors cautioned that more research should be done before implementing any specific policy changes to deal with the increased destructiveness of hurricanes.

“This is the first real attempt to understand the influence of both demographic and climate change on hurricane damage,” said Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric sciences at MIT and a co-author of the study. Robert Mendelsohn GRD ’78, a co-author of the study and economics professor at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, added that unlike previous studies which separated economic and scientific analysis, this study established a new integration assessment model to best incorporate the scientific and economic data.

Emanuel led a team of researchers to predict how climate change might impact hurricane activity between now and 2100. They planted potential storms called “seeds” in four established climate prediction models that measure meteorological data to forecast where hurricanes will develop. The computerized models enabled the researchers to track the development, intensity and landfall site for each of the storms.

A tropical storm is an engine that is based on the difference in temperature and humidity between the sea level and the upper atmosphere,” Mendelsohn said. “The sea is going to get warmer and the difference is going to get bigger.”

Mendelsohn’s team at Yale then used current data and demographic forecasts to calculate the economic damage of each hurricane. They also calculated the financial impact of forecasted hurricanes without climate change as a control group.

The results of the study indicate that while climate change will have little impact on small storms, large hurricanes may become more frequent and more intense. The model predicted that the hurricane landfalls in East Asia and along the North American coast will account for 88 percent of the forecasted damage. Both regions are characterized by dense population clusters in vulnerable coastal areas. The researchers determined that even without the anticipated climate change, the annual economic damages from hurricanes may more than double from $26 billion per year to $56 billion per year by 2100 as the global population increases to nine billion. With climate change, the researchers concluded that the damage may quadruple to $109 billion.

Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, wrote in an email to the News that the paper serves as a “warning” to those who advocate for action against man-made climate change while ignoring social factors. He added that the study is “consistent” with the conclusions of his previous research YALE DAILY
Texas drought will ease this week, along with the SE portion of the USA, the drought monitor will continue to say the SE will be in a drought condition even tough they will have over 10 inches of rain by the time January is over!


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:42pm WST on Tuesday the 24th of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E to 16S 114E to 16S 125E. The
trough is expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it
is likely to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south
of the Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

A low has formed in the monsoon trough near 16S 114E moving west southwest at
around 11 knots.
It may develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday evening
or more likely on Thursday. The system is expected to continue to intensify and
begin to move south on Friday. Gales associated with the system are not expected
to affect the coast on Wednesday or Thursday, but there is a risk that coastal
communities near the Northwest Cape may be affected on Friday.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date
with weather forecasts.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :High
Friday :High


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Tropical Low imbedded in the ITCZ unloading on Darwin and islands to the north.


Click Image for loop.

Latest Weather Observations for Darwin Daily total till 21:00 149.8mm(5.89in)

Latest Weather Observations for Point Fawcett Daily total till 21:00, 205mm(8.07in)
Bureau monitors cyclone potential


The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring two tropical lows located off Western Australia's north-west coast, which could form into cyclones by Australia Day.

A monsoonal trough sitting off the Pilbara is bringing the lows closer to the WA coast.

Forecaster Andrew Burton says the lows are likely to bring heavy rains and strong winds later in the week.

"They're going to sort of battle it out to form into a tropical cyclone and it'll be where that ends up happening and it's interaction with the other low developing near Darwin that will govern what happens this week," he said.


© ABC 2012
Wild weather over Top End but less cyclone danger

The weather bureau has downgraded the chance of a cyclone forming off the Northern Territory coast this week.

Forecaster Chris Davies says a low pressure system is currently hovering near the Tiwi Islands and starting to move south on to land.

He says even though a cyclone is now unlikely, the system will bring increased showers to most parts of the Top End.

"The probability of it developing into a cyclone in the next couple of days has decreased," he said.

"Our tropical cyclone outlook now reads for the next few days: low, low and then moderate.

"We are keeping a moderate on for the last day of the outlook because there is a small chance a new low might form in the Timor Sea on that day."

The bureau has issued a number of warnings for the Top End.

Heavy rain, damaging winds, large waves and abnormally high tides are forecast for the northern Darwin-Daly and Arnhem districts,.

There is a wind warning for Northern Territory coastal waters between the Daly River mouth and Cape Shield.

Senior forecaster David Matthews says there is also a risk of localised flooding in the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts.

"We are expecting isolated heavy falls, possibly up to about 150 millimetres, scattered falls of 20 to 50 millimetres and isolated falls of 50 to 100 millimetres across the Arnhem and northwest Darwin Daly district," he said.

"(There will be) abnormally high tides and large waves because we do have a king tide coming up in the next couple of days across the coast."

© ABC 2012
Situation deteriorating in flooded south-east Qld

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says torrential rain that has caused chaos around the state's south-east on Tuesday is only going to get heavier overnight.

Hundreds of millimetres of rain has been dumped across the Gold and Sunshine coasts and Brisbane, bringing flash flooding, landslips and hundreds of road closures.

Evacuation centres have been opened at Narangba and Deception Bay, north of Brisbane, with about a dozen homes evacuated in Burpengary.


The Bureau of Meteorology says flooding could worsen in some areas with more rain expected across the region overnight and wet weather forecast for the rest of the week.

Police have reported dozens of traffic incidents since the big wet began and officials are warning people to stay out of floodwaters.

EMQ director of operations Warren Bridson says the situation is deteriorating.

"The rain is going to get heavier particularly between Maroochydore and Brisbane city in the next couple of hours, which means our State Emergency Service personnel are escalating their response," he said.

"We've had about 500 calls for assistance up until now and of course that is increasing all the time."

Mr Bridson says emergency crews will work through the night.

"The predictions are... more rain tonight and again tomorrow. I would expect the disaster management systems will escalate tomorrow if that transpires therefore there will be more activities around the local disaster management groups," he said.

He says it will be a long night for residents throughout the south-east.

"We're asking the community to really be aware tonight about what's predicted," he said.

"To take care on the roads and to be patient if they make calls to the State Emergency Service because it's going to be a long, hard night for the SES people in the south-east."

Weather bureau spokeswoman Michelle Berry says the wet conditions are likely to continue until next Tuesday.

"This is certainly quite a severe event that's occurring throughout south-eastern Queensland at the moment," she said.

"We can get these very moist air streams through the summer months.

"It doesn't have the same depth of moisture as what we were seeing through January of last year but it's certainly a very severe event ands that's why we are warning for it continuing into tomorrow also."

Rescues
Twelve homes were evacuated as a precaution at Burpengary, north of Brisbane, and another dozen homes have been flooded further north on the Sunshine Coast.

About 275 mm(10.8in) has fallen at Caloundra since 9am AEST Tuesday.

Thunderstorms were also dumping heavy rain across the north of the state, with more than 100mm(3.9in) recorded near Innisfail and more than 140mm(5.5in) near Mackay since Monday.

At Boondall, in Brisbane's north, a childcare centre was inundated and the downpour also caused delays at Brisbane airport.

Three people escaped after their car was stuck on a flooded road in Brisbane's south-west and cars were seen floating on some streets in the inner city.

Energex says power has been cut to 9,500 homes and businesses across the south-east.

The downpour has prompted SEQ Water's flood operations centre to order releases from Leslie Harrison Dam and North Pine Dam.

There are no releases planned yet for Wivenhoe Dam, which is at 76 per cent and capacity and rising.

Elsewhere, homes are being sandbagged in Ipswich, west of Brisbane, while a motorist had to be rescued from a flooded road this morning on the Gold Coast.

Nearly 200 mm(7.8in) of rain was recorded in the Gold Coast hinterland in 24 hours.

Swift water rescue specialists are on standby with localised flooding expected to worsen on the Gold Coast.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service spokesman Bruce Byatt has warned people to stay out of floodwaters.

"In a very short space of time you can be in difficulty and lose your lives," he said.

© ABC 2012
NSW north coast braces as floodwaters rise

Residents are bracing for major flooding on the New South Wales mid-north coast, with some communities already isolated by rising waters.

The State Emergency Service (SES) says the main concern is the Bellinger Valley, where the town of Bellingen has been cut in two by the swollen Bellinger River, with both halves of the town now isolated.

More than a dozen homes and businesses there have been inundated.

Assistant commissioner Greg Newton, from the State Emergency Service, says other small communities have also been affected.

"Down around Darkwood, we've got about 300 residents who've been isolated by floodwaters throughout the Bellinger Valley and various other areas there are isolations of various people," he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting further heavy rain tonight and over the next few days and a severe weather warning remains in place for the Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast.

SES spokeswoman Becky Gollings says holidaymakers and farmers in the area need to make preparations.

"All those rural landholders, if they can move their livestock and equipment to higher ground," she said.

"Those holidaymakers who are out at the moment and especially for Australia Day, if you're camping near a river or a creek or a causeway, move out of those areas because they can become flooded quite quickly and people can get into trouble."

People living in remote parts of the Thora and Kalang valleys are cut off by floodwater.

Darcy Browning has lived in the upper Bellinger catchment for almost 50 years and says it is shaping up to be a big flood.

"We have what I regard as, at this stage, the bottom end of what I consider to be a major flood and it's still raining very heavily," he said.

"Of course as I live up the top end of Darkwood everybody up here is well and truly isolated."

A landslide and waterfalls have blocked the Waterfall Way between Dorrigo and Bellingen.

The riverfront caravan park downstream near the coast at Repton is being evacuated as a precautionary measure.

There is also a flood warning for the Orara River west of Coffs Harbour, with the Orara Way between Coffs Harbour and Grafton cut off.

Flood watches are in place for the Macleay River near Kempsey and the Hastings near Port Macquarie.

The forecast is for seven more days of rain.

Big surf

Meanwhile, strong easterly winds and large waves are expected over the next few days.

The weather bureau is predicting swells of up to three metres(10ft).

The big surf has already led to beach closures around Port Macquarie and lifeguards are monitoring the situation closely.

Senior lifeguard Grant Hudson says beach-goers must be extremely careful.

"With so much swell in our beaches at the moment, and with a strong wind gust, we can see a bit of a spike in swell," he said.

"We do ask all beach users if they do go to use the beach over the next few days, with this warning being out, always check with a lifeguard or surf lifesaver.

"Also, if you are going rock fishing, do stay away from those dangerous areas."

A cold front is making its way towards the coast from the southern Tasman Sea.

Mr Hudson says the beach probably is not the place to be on Australia Day.

"It is a very easterly swell and the wind is coming form that easterly direction, all the beaches are going to be affected," he said.

"If you do go to the beach, just make sure you do have a chat with someone, the lifeguards or the surf savers.

"That way you'll know why it's open and why it may be closed.

"The more information you do have out there, the safer you will be."

© ABC 2012
Whenever there is a strong La Nina, the east coast of Australia will get more rain that normal. I just hope and pray we don't get another Yasi in the next few months.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Link


Scientists say fears of "Arctic tipping point" may be unfounded.
Article from The BBC.



Nea? Any comments?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Nea? Any comments?

Sorry, I'm not Nea. However, the last three paragraphs of the article gave me pause- seems to me the scientists are saying the process may be "slower" but certainly are not saying "isn't happening."
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Nea? Any comments?

Thanks for the link.
The one overriding factor that must be taken into account is that when the driftwood, shore wave lines and polar bear bones were laid down so to say. The CO2 levels were not at almost 400 parts per million, this is going to part of the recipe for the future ice melts.
I personally don't think it a matter of if the tipping point will be reached or missed? Its only a matter of when. Maybe sometime between 5 and 20 years as there is not going to be a reduction in greenhouse gases. I think the tipping point will be inevitable. Just my opinion of course.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Nea? Any comments?

Yeah, we had talked about that BBC article a lot over on Dr. Rood's blog when it came out back in the summer. In short, the MSM got this wrong (imagine that). The actual scientific literature didn't state unequivocally "there's no danger of reaching a tipping point"; it said that such a tipping point could theoretically be avoided--that is, the Arctic Sea ice death spiral reversed--if policies that climate science deniers have successfully demonized were implemented in a timely fashion. But that hasn't happened, nor does it appear likely to. Here's a graph of the spiral:

Uh-oh

Now, having said all that: while I believe--as do many experts--that the Arctic Sea will be ice free in summer (historically the first or second weak in September) within the next five or six years, there's still many years or decades to go before it's ice free all year-round; after all, it is in darkness six months out of every 12. It's important to note, however, that a summer loss of all ice would obviously mean the end of thick multi-year ice, leaving only fresh, brittle, and easily-melted first-year ice.

FYI, the following graph was published over on Joe Romm's blog yesterday:

uh-oh

Based on everything I see, I wouldn't put my money on the ice surviving. Unfortunately.
Noting:-335. Neapolitan
"Based on everything I see, I wouldn't put my money on the ice surviving. Unfortunately."
I think that the only kind of betting we can engage in with the Arctic sea ice scenario, is the date it will all have gone/melted!
At that point the Arctic sea ice sheet will have taken on a form more like the ice on the Hudson Bay.
There is another possibility with this type of "new ice," that being that it may not join up into one large sheet, due to currents and possible localised warming, high winds etc.
I think it would be a error to assume that the Arctic will remain ice free throughout the entire winter, as in order to achieve this there would have to be some drastic or catastrophic changes in the climate, the nature of which are at this time hard to contemplate, let alone predict. I'm open to any reasonable suggestions what these might be though.
Funso is looking nice this morning.



This is why I track tropical cyclones. :D
Good reply Nea.
Food for thought.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let me say there's no way there will be a month period as bad as April 25th - May 25th for another century or two. I mean, 6 EF5s? Around 1000 tornadoes in April or May alone? 500 deaths? 3000 injuries? Countless major towns being wiped off of map? There's no way this will happen again for century or two. These storms was truly "The Outbreak of the Century"... it's heart breaking :\

Outbreak of a century? No. I never thought I'd say this, but the Earth is warming. That means there is an increasing amount of moist, warm air across the United States, which can ultimately lead to more destructive and violent storms.

Who is to say we won't have an outbreak that is worse?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outbreak of a century? No. I never thought I'd say this, but the Earth is warming. That means there is an increasing amount of moist, warm air across the United States, which can ultimately lead to more destructive and violent storms.

Who is to say we won't have an outbreak that is worse?
i have to agree with you there, now i wonder what the warmer temps are going to have with the tropical season,stronger or bigger hurricanes? any thoughts on this?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outbreak of a century? No. I never thought I'd say this, but the Earth is warming. That means there is an increasing amount of moist, warm air across the United States, which can ultimately lead to more destructive and violent storms.

Who is to say we won't have an outbreak that is worse?

why has Cyclones not been stronger?
Quoting AussieStorm:

why has Cyclones not been stronger?


The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season: another strangely active one

The season featured a huge number of named storms--nineteen--tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength--the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011--seven--meaning that only 37% of this year's named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--was about 20% above average. WU November 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

why has Cyclones not been stronger?
i'll respond with my limited knowledge, forgive me if i'm wrong, but cyclones and severe storms operate by very different mechanisms. they cannot be equated as equal variables for trends brought about by warming, as one feeds energy from the ocean and the other results from a litany of land/surface conditions whereby available energy is complex. in addition, the inhibiting factors against a tropical cyclone utilizing the heat content available provides yet another layer of complex variable that warming may heighten.

in an increasingly warmer atmosphere it makes more sense that greater severity of tornadic storms and their frequency would be seen sooner than tropical storm anomalies, as a result of global warming. when we look at the inhibition of vertical shear in the Atlantic the past season, that could be a mechanism of warming. but to have the extremes of continental air masses coupled with extreme jet configurations, tornadic activity will heighten. i do think the warming of the atmosphere and oceans will amplify extreme jet patterns and collisions of such air masses that promotes tornadic storms and intensity.
morning all. only about 46 hours until i am another year older!
Just as I thought. No threat to land!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Silly guy

You can't forecast 2013 23 days into 2012

Silly guy

figured id take a whack at it, knowing el nino will likely be in play during the 2013 season, well, unless the nino fades over spring 13'...

Anyway, Funso looks to be fading, expect low end category 4 strength or category 3 at next advisory, the Eye has became weaker in appearance, and the structure is not as impressive as earlier today...
Funso appears more lopsided to the south as of now, and the structure has a weakening appearance, good news though, weakening or not, its still going out to sea...