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Rare January tornado hits Vancouver, Washington

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:33 PM GMT on January 11, 2008

A rare tornado hit Vancouver, Washington (just north of Portland, Oregon) on Thursday at noon local time. The unusual twister demolished a rowing club, downed power lines, uprooted trees, and tossed shopping carts into cars along its four mile path. No injuries were reported, though. The state of Washington averages about two tornadoes per year. Yesterday's tornado was only the third January tornado observed in Washington since 1950, according to the National Climatic Data Center (2000 and 2006 were the other years). Tornadoes were also reported yesterday in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. About 100 houses were damaged and destroyed and 11 people were injured in Lowndes County, Mississippi from one of the tornadoes. A total of 34 tornadoes have been confirmed for the severe weather outbreak that began on January 7th, and total number of tornadoes could reach 60 or more by the time all the damage surveys are complete. More tornadoes are expected today from the Florida Panhandle northeastward to coastal North Carolina. Watch the Weather Underground's Severe Weather Page and Tornado Page to keep up with the storms.


Figure 1. Storm reports for Thursday, January 10, 2008. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Katrina damage claims exceed $3 quadrillion
According to the Associated Press, $3,014,170,389,176,410 in claims have been filed against the federal government over damage from the failure of levees and flood walls following Hurricane Katrina. Of the 489,000 total claims, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said 247 were for at least $1 billion, including one for $3 quadrillion.

"That's the mother of all high numbers," said Loren Scott, a Baton Rouge-based economist.

Jeff Masters
Missouri tornandos
Missouri tornandos
Our news commented that for Springfield there were 63 tornado warnings over 15 hours of which at least 10 passed over the city. It was a very long scary night that these storms kept coming and coming and coming
Tornado Damage in Vancouver
Tornado Damage in Vancouver
A rare EF-1 tornado does quite a bit of damage...
Bus on the Roof
Bus on the Roof
The F3 hit Caledonia school campus just after 2PM. All personnel were in the hallways. No deaths only minor injuries. Photos by my son Kristofer

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Doc. Also snowed in Baghdad!!

Talk about wild weather
Thanks Dr.Masters,we're going to look back on this winter with a lot of interest.
Her's an interesting article regarding snow in South America:


Breaking News- Snow in the Middle of the South America Summer
You think the weather has been wild and extreme here in the United States the last 10 days. Take a look at this!!!

Metsul Weather Center

The weather went crazy. This is the most read sentence in the press of Buenos Aires at this moment. The central and northern areas of Argentina are experiencing a brutal heat wave that brought the electrical grid of country to near a collapse point. The temperature soared to 39C (102F) in Buenos Aires with a heat index of 42C (108F), but in some provinces of Argentina the heat index reached 54C (129F) yesterday. This morning it snowed in several locations of southern Argentina as the famous resort of Bariloche in the Andes Mountains. It even snowed in downtown Bariloche (photo), a rare event for January. Local press described the snow blanketed the Cordillera of Chubut, an unusual event for January. “I do not know if I use my plastic swimming pool or the skis”, told a local resident that saw snow this morning and just few hours earlier suffered with much above average temperature reaching 30C (86F) in the Patagonia region. Snow was also reported in San Martins de Los Andes. Tourists in the regional, used to see snow in the colder months of the years, could not believe the white thing was falling in the middle of January. Just like this week in the United States (winter storm in the West and unusually warm in the East), the northern areas of Argentina were under very warm weather warnings at the some moment it was snowing in the southern provinces.

Photobucket

Icecap Note: This is even more unusual than a July snow in Denver, a mile high (5,278 feet) city at about the same latitude. Bariloche is at just 2,772 feet elevation.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. This has got to be the weirdest winter ever.
For those who may miss it,

Alll the system needs to do is contract the radius of maximum winds (RMW) and aquire some convection that will alow it develop a warm core in the upper levels. Currently a flat to cool thermal core exist near 200 hpa, which is not subtropical or tropical in nature. Aslo the system appears to vertically stacked in terms of circulation (winds) but in terms of the thermal structure due to 30 knot wind shear. It has unitl Sunday to get its act togther before it becomes absorbed by a cold front.

Here's a couple from Tehran, Iran:


Photobucket
Photobucket
I dont remember ever hearing of such wild weather all over the world at the same time.

I remeber hearing about diffrent events at diffrent times not all at once though.

Isn't it funny all this went wacky just as the new solar cycle began?

Anyways... lets hope everyone fares well in the aftermath of all these storms and other wild weather events.
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Snow fell on Baghdad on Friday for the first time in memory, and delighted residents declared it an omen of peace.

"It is the first time we've seen snow in Baghdad," said 60-year-old Hassan Zahar. "We've seen sleet before, but never snow. I looked at the faces of all the people, they were astonished," he said.

"A few minutes ago, I was covered with snowflakes. In my hair, on my shoulders. I invite all the people to enjoy peace, because the snow means peace," he said.

Traffic policeman Murtadha Fadhil, huddling under a balcony to keep dry, declared the snow "a new sign of the new Iraq."

"It's a sign of hope. We hope Iraqis will purify their hearts and politicians will work for the prosperity of all Iraqis."

The streets of the capital were largely empty as big, thick, wet flakes fell on Friday morning, a weekend day in Iraq. The temperature hovered around freezing and the snow mostly melted into grey puddles when it hit the ground.

But it was still lovely, said Mohanned Rahim, a baker: "This snow will bring pleasure to the people of Iraq. It's beautiful!"

Hey,Bone,did you get thunder this morning?
Jan 08, 2008
21 Iranians Killed in 3-Day Snowstorm
The Guardian

The heaviest snowfall in more than a decade has left at least 21 people dead in Iran - some buried under avalanches, some frozen to death and others killed in traffic accidents, state media reported Monday. As much as 22 inches of snow has fallen in areas of northern and central Iran since Saturday, said meteorologist Ali Abedini. The storm has forced schools and government offices to close, blocking major roads and leading to the cancellation of all domestic and international flights.

At least 21 people have been killed and 88 others injured ... as a result of heavy snow, state-run radio reported. Some died of the severe cold, some were buried under avalanches and others died after their cars overturned on snow-covered roads. The cold weather has caused problems for residents in western Iran, with about a dozen towns suffering from gas cuts due to a surge in demand and a cut in gas exports from Turkmenistan.
hopefully it is a harbenger of peace :)
Must be Global Cooling:)
the cold is all over...even here in the c/bbean....so much for global warming lol
wierd.... can you spot the cold front??

Cool shot Bone!
Every pun intended...LOL
I hope Global Warming is not over, I am enjoying the last 4 winters here in the South, I was thinking we have another 20 years to go in this warming cycle before we start to cool off again.
what the weather reads the SPC??

LOL its following the line almost exactly!!!

19. P451
Had lots of thunder overnight in central jersey. Even heard some tiny hail stones out there but probably no larger than your average sleet pellets. Probably got almost an inch of rain as we had a number of short lived downpours. Pretty gusty winds with one of the storms I'd say near 40mph. The one storm was no different than your decent sized summertime storm here given the rain, wind, and frequency of cloud to ground lightning strikes.

They're hinting at another chance for gusty tstorms here this afternoon.

The world has gone crazy as pointed out there's a number of very strange events taking place all at once.

It's like an extremely watered down version of the start of the movie "day after tomorrow" :)

I say that partially in jest of course.
yea P your right, a watered down version...


time for me to go check MODIS for anything breaking apart in Antartica :/

I think when you ask for that much money you need to hold your pinky to your lips like Dr. EVIL and laugh moniacally...
as in ONE QUADRILLION, muh ha haaaah!

Looks like weather in north Florida is trending back toward freezing!
22. P451
Also gotta love how the Atlantic is still trying it's hardest to develop an sts.
REM - It's The End Of The World As We Know It
It's The End Of The World As We Know It
(And I Feel Fine)

That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane -

Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn -

world serves its own needs, don't misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock,

speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,

down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for

hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies

breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered

crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,

common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves it's

own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the

reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright

light, feeling pretty psyched.



It's the end of the world as we know it.

It's the end of the world as we know it.

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.



Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign tower. Slash and burn,

return, listen to yourself churn. Lock him in uniform and book burning,

blood letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate. Light a candle,

light a motive. Step down, step down. Watch a heel crush, crush. Uh oh,

this means no fear - cavalier. Renegade and steer clear! A tournament,

a tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives

and I decline.


It's the end of the world as we know it.

It's the end of the world as we know it.

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.



The other night I tripped a nice continental drift divide. Mountains sit in a line.

Leonard Bernstein. Leonid Breshnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs.

Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You symbiotic, patriotic,

slam, but neck, right? Right.



It's the end of the world as we know it.

It's the end of the world as we know it.

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...fine...


(It's time I had some time alone)







Thunder storms and rain in Harrisburg, PA this morning. No severe weather like they had in the south or NW.
had some nice storms roll through late last night then again this morning. Mostly like summertime storms.

Thsi afternoon is when things get interesting. The local WFO discussion from this morning is talking about classic cold weather severe storms and possible isolated tornados. Welcome to NJ in january :/
morning...lol, bone...got that darn song in my head again...
I felt it appropriate with all the weather stories this AM
Yep,more like late spring weather,but looks like we get back to more traditional January weather next week.
000
FXUS61 KPHI 110844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THIS IS GETTING CLOSER TO JUST ABOUT A
TEXTBOOK COLD SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS WE HAVE A NEG TILT
DIFFLUENT TROF ALOFT AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H2.5 JET OVER
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 925MB JET IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO
55KTS WITH 70KTS FCSTD AT 850MB.

FORECASTED 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE THRU THE ROOF BETWEEN 200-500
M2/S2, WHILE SOME OF THIS IS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, IT
STILL REMAINS PRETTY HIGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. VALUES LIKE THAT COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A BREAK IN THE LINE
THAT WOULD ENHANCE LOCALIZED INFLOW
. SITU SIMILAR TO THESE IN THE
PAST HAVE PRODUCED SVR STORMS WHEN SFC BASED LIFTED INDICES DROP AOB
ZERO, THE SPC WEB SITE HAS A GOOD MESOANALYSIS PAGE THAT IS UPDATED
HOURLY THAT CAN BE FOLLOWED.
From yesterday's blog:
"297. Bonedog 6:48 AM CST on January 11, 2008
what the .....
There were tornados in Washington State yesterday? I didnt notice returns in that area or even watchs"



Funny how even during slow periods of this blog that posts get ignored. NEwxguy remarked on this very thing as it was happening after which I looked up about it, came back and even posted a link of a picture. I wondered why it seemed that no one else found it even remotely interesting.
Grey what time was that. I was logged off since 1pm yesterday. Only got back on this morning at 6am.

If I was here I would have noticed the post or even the echo
not much Natl. news on the tornado outbreak.
Based upon the latest RMASDIS image, it appears as if convection has been attempting to build and cover the closed surface circulation. It may now be attempting to gain subtropical/tropical characteristics.
I was watching the interactive tornado page watching all the warnings in the south and saw that popup in the northwest and thought it was a mistake.As we know now,it was one of those strange weather anomalies.
It was between 3:00-3:30 p.m. CST.
Morning all, hope everyone is having a great new year!

Good to see ya Bone, NEwx, Lake, 456, ShenV, cchs and all :~)

Certainly some interesting weather to say the least. To sum it up, snow in Baghdad and South America during the summer, several Jan tornadoes, and a tropical season that does not want to end....
when there are elections looming, its difficult to find real news stories. There is nothing in the AP, Reuters or on NPR. What gives? Tonadoes are exciting to read about...total ratings grabber.
subsidence is ocurring in almost 90% of the circulation of the invest area
gotcha Grey. That was 4ish my time. I wasnt around.

When i came in this morning and checked the SPC I noticed it.

Sorry NE I wasnt trackign it with you yesterday. Captn Hook (as Baja calls me) was doing kitchen remodel duty
hey StormJunkie. Long time no see

hope everything is well.
SJ good to see you again,and yeh, the winter is anything but boring this year.
All is well Bone, been busy working on a few projects, as well as taking my normal winter hiatus ☺
wonder if this is a precursor to the rest of the year
It was really strange Bone,watching all the warnings popping up in mississippi,and then seeing this lone warning appear in washington.
Glad to hear SJ:)


hey stormJunkie...hows it going?

Shen thats great...I needed to hear that song to satisfy my brain after Bone put it in there... Now maybe I can move on. :o)
Im loading fine StormW

morning BTW :)
morning storm and SJ
Well, look who has come back from the Hurricane Season grave. LOL. How have you been Storm Junkie? Still am using your site to assist my forecasting.

Good morning to you as well Storm. Now we have the full boat on this morning. What are your thoughts on this possible invest? Thanks.
No problem Storm.
looks like Tallahasee is about to get whalloped
hey Storm. I hope you're doing well.
Tropical Invest 90W Update 3

Issued 0900 UTC JAN 11 2008 by W456
Reissued 1500 UTC JAN 11 2008 by W456

Tropical disturbance 90W centered near 8.5N-126.5 moving towards the west northwest. Estimated surface winds are 20 knots and minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Wind shear is 5-10 knots and SSTs are near 82F.

Position poorly based on past microwave imagery and low level infrared winds. Surface winds and pressure estimated using synoptic reports. This disturbance continues to produce strong-moderate showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northwest of the well-define LLCC. The latest update shows the center nearing the coast of Mindanao Island in the Philippines. Environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a tropical depression once the system moves westward across the Philippines Islands, and into the South China Sea. After which the cyclone should turn southwestward under the influence of the NE Monsoon flow a product of the very strong Siberian High.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 90W INVEST.15kts-1010mb-82N-1269E

Very unusual year for tornadoes in Jan.

The three year Jan. average from '05 to '07 is 34.
(Source)

We already had 45 before the current round of between 34 to 60. That would put it at between 68 to 94 tornadoes less than halfway through the month.

Is it global warming? It would be wrong to make that attribution based on one month of unusual weather.

However, there has been an increase in F0 tornadoes over the last 30 years and some models do predict an increase in the future:

30 year analysis of tornado frequency and strength
Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts
Good to see ya SW, hope your having a good '08 so far

Thanks cchs, hope it will always be useful

As for the potential invest, have not really been watching it, but having been watching the models to see where this low would track up the east coast. Looks like it is going to track just offshore the NC coast preventing too much NC mountain snow on Sunday. Sure wish that track would move back W a little...Anywho, from what I saw on the models the Atlantic area was getting caught up in the front before it really had a chance to develop any, and with the current lack of convection, I would guess it would have a hard time making invest, much less STD. Just my guess though...

modified comment
BTW, that 3 QUADRILLION dollar claim was made by someone who lives in Baker, Louisiana which is NORTH of Baton Rouge and no where near New Orleans!!
Here is the latest RAMSDIS visible image of the possible invest. Notice how it has an expansive moisture fetch and how convection has begun to wrap around the low-level circulation on the western side.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Unfortunately this event is not quite finished. Eastern Carolinas and surrounding areas please be aware today.


...ERN CAROLINAS TO DELMARVA PENINSULA...
CONFLUENCE BAND EXTENDING NNE ACROSS ERN NC FROM THE GULF STREAM
WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA CST LIKELY WILL REMAIN A SEAT OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTN NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA AND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE BAND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL SQLN NOW ENTERING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND GRAZING
INFLUENCE OF EJECTING UPR IMPULSE...STORMS ALONG THE CONFLUENCE BAND
MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS THREAT
WOULD BE GREATEST WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR WITH THE
MESO CIRCULATIONS OF EMBEDDED SMALL BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. THE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTN...BUT COULD LINGER A BIT
LONGER IN FAR ERN NC.


Based upon both visible and infrared loops, it appears that the closed circulation no longer is exposed and convection has developed over it.
tornado outbreaks, snows in baghdad, invests, avalanches, heavy snows, record warmth and its only January 11.

Man I dont not like this trend... going to be a wild ride this year.
having a lot of rain this morning,3/4 inch of rain most of it since 6 a.m this morning
this isnt good :/

maybe not for you, bone, but that looks great for me! :oP
I dont care for the cold snowy winter...I like warm. Only this time of year can rain make me greatful...unless of course theres been a drought. (Which on the East end of the GL is not common)
its doing it again...posts going to an auto repair site in Japan...

ahh...there it is, nevermind. :)
I don't like the looks of that.
Thundering outside,this is January right?
yea it should be with a 90% MCS!!

got my camera gear in the truck just incase ;)
yep...the temps are dropping fast now. An hour ago it was 46 and now its 40 so...I think my brief break from winter is coming to an end.
62. cchsweatherman 3:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2008
Based upon both visible and infrared loops, it appears that the closed circulation no longer is exposed and convection has developed over it.


over the center or the circulation? I am seeing cumulonimbus clouds over the center but the circulation still has fair-weather cumulus present.
NE looks like an impressive cell is about to cross into Mass. from E. Rhode Island.
still the system is rather impressive still needs the lapse rate between the SST and the air temp at 500 mb to steep enough to get some convection going.
bone, whats MCS?
Yeh,Lake and another cell moving up close to me alittle south of boston.
MCS: Mesoscale Convective System


Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5558.00 m
Freezing level: 709.26 mb = 2929.79 m = 9612.05 ft
Wetbulb zero: 713.86 mb = 2869.35 m = 9413.78 ft
Precipitable water: 1.20 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 80.92 %
Est. max temperature: 23.54 C = 74.37 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 962.82 mb = 396.73 m = 1301.59 ft T: 11.34 C
700-500 lapse rate: 6.13 C/km
ThetaE index: 9.34 C Layer 850.0- 553.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 1000.00 mb = 82.00 m = 269.03 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 8.41 g/kg
Conv temperature: 11.91 C = 53.44 F
Cap Strength: 4.53 C
Lifted Index: 4.55 C Risk: None
Lifted Index @300 mb: 9.18 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 2.56 C
Showalter Index: -0.49 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index: 51.70 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 26.50 C
Cross Totals Index: 25.20 C
K Index: 34.60 Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 391.75 Risk: Showers and thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -0.58 Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms

might have a shot at a chase :)
thank, quasigeostropic...btw..clever handle name.
starting to tingle, bone?
13. Weather456 8:08 AM CST on January 11, 2008
the cold is all over...even here in the c/bbean....so much for global warming lol


LOL...


2007 warmest year in history for the Northern Hemisphere, #2 world wide beating 1998

Extraordinary year just passed was dominated by the great melt of the Arctic sea ice, which took some heat out of some monthly anomalies, it seems almost from May till September. A year when the sun was at is lowest period of solar activity, even with an La-Nina at year end, despite all this, beating 2005 and especially 1998 the supreme El-Nino year by +0.15 degrees C. It looks more and more like there is a large body of heat in the Earth's atmosphere which maintains itself somewhere , while another smaller region has normal temperatures at the same time, this heat only escapes to space at a constant rate, if there is more moisture in the atmosphere, this rate will slow down, opening up the Arctic ocean will only add more moisture to the atmosphere, trapping more heat.




Be careful of what you say... :)
I have just updated my site and have included the Southeast severe weather outbreak and the possible invest on the home page.
Her's an interesting article regarding snow in South America:


Breaking News- Snow in the Middle of the South America Summer
You think the weather has been wild and extreme here in the United States the last 10 days. Take a look at this!!!

Metsul Weather Center

The weather went crazy. This is the most read sentence in the press of Buenos Aires at this moment. The central and northern areas of Argentina are experiencing a brutal heat wave that brought the electrical grid of country to near a collapse point. The temperature soared to 39C (102F) in Buenos Aires with a heat index of 42C (108F), but in some provinces of Argentina the heat index reached 54C (129F) yesterday.


What about the brutal heat wave? Obviously I see a bias here... and they may actually be related because it looks like an extreme regional temperature difference (one area very hot, another very cold).
all the ingrediants are there Lake. The 12z Skew chart has wetted my whistle. With the front still not here and the bulk of moisture still over PA and me leaving in an hour...

yea Im tingling :)
Bonedog could I have the link to the MCS graph you posted at comment #65.

Thanks.
82. MichaelSTL 4:30 PM GMT on January 11, 2008
Check out the atlantic in that graphic. Its illustrates the weak 2007 tropical season...that's where storms went *poof*
stream here ya go

SPC

all the diffrent charts are in drop downs on the left
MichaelSTL,

yeah

with a little cold you cant say global is finish...the cold might not even last till february.
I was checking CCH website and i found this....i knew it already but it still amazes me till this day

4. Only the second time in history that a Hurricane Hunter mission had to be aborted. (Large ice chunks forming in the upper atmosphere along with extreme turbulence in Felix caused hurricane hunters to abort the mission and exit the storm. The plane suffered huge dents in its frame.)
I would like to wish you a spotting, bone, but that would mean a tornado for some poor folks (that were probably not expecting it) so I'm conflicted. So I guess I wish for you to catch a touchdown somewhere remote and unpopulated...but not your house... :OP
Is it global warming? It would be wrong to make that attribution based on one month of unusual weather.

Here is an interesting article that I found about a year ago, from 1999; it almsot seems to describe last year pretty well:

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.


Also mentions record snow... hmmm...
456, I should have placed that at #2 on the Records List for this past hurricane season, since it was that amazing. Also, I do not know if you noticed this, but I had included a table with the numbers from the last three years as well as columns for 2008 predictions. I think that I will come out with my first predictions for the 2008 Hurricane Season sometime in early March. Is that too soon to post them?

By the way 456, thanks for visiting my site. Leave me a comment on my Comments page about what you think of the site.
New Bedford and Cape Cod are about to get a good dose of Tstorms.

cells starting to pop southwest of me heading my way

Un believable infrared temps over Siberia...its down right cold



look at that frontal boundary!
93. cchsweatherman 1:02 PM AST on January 11, 2008
456, I should have placed that at #2 on the Records List for this past hurricane season, since it was that amazing. Also, I do not know if you noticed this, but I had included a table with the numbers from the last three years as well as columns for 2008 predictions. I think that I will come out with my first predictions for the 2008 Hurricane Season sometime in early March. Is that too soon to post them?

By the way 456, thanks for visiting my site. Leave me a comment on my Comments page about what you think of the site.



I will post my update May 31....the day b4 hurricane season. Also u can post urs in March but u should update, adjust or reissue it as time goes on and information about conditions changes.
yea Lake impressive isnt it!!

Its going to be something as it presses through
CCH were do u leave the comments? I am on the comments page but i dont see anything to post.
Its illustrates the weak 2007 tropical season

I wouldn't call it weak, not when considering that it was worse than 2005 in the Caribbean. For all I know, this year may be similar (the global supression trend appears to be ongoing; look at all of the weak, short-lived storms in the Southern Hemisphere over the last month). The CFS actually forecasts almost all of the tropical Atlantic to be cooler than normal as well this year, even moreso than last year (I wonder if the active AMO period ended in 2005; note the AMO is correlated most with the number of strong storms and energy dissipation, not total storms; 1994 had an even lower ACE per storm than last year, and even La Nina years during the inactive period were not terribily active, 1988 had 19 depressions, 12 storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, with the other two hurricanes being only Cat 1s; 1974 had just 11 storms, three of them subtropical, and 2 majors with a similar strength La Nina).



Of course, the CFS is very inaccurate more than a few months out, especially past April due to the "predictability barrier", and it is mainly an ENSO model. It did have something similar last year though.
101. Weather456 11:49 AM EST on January 11, 2008
CCH were do u leave the comments? I am on the comments page but i dont see anything to post.


You should see this on the Comments page screen.

img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
ok i have it now....its my firewall was blocking it.
i do beleive a siberian express is on it way as flow changes over n pacfic will allow all that cold air to move down and across north america over next ten days expect snowy pattern for rest of jan starting on 14 with very cold air moving in for the entire month of feb.
106. P451
Damn, Bonedog, those things fired QUICK. You were right. It's getting dark rapidly here in east-central jersey - and I'm already hearing some pretty loud distant thunder. It's actually surged up to 64 degrees here too so there's fuel for them to continue.
yea P4 going to be a rough afternoon till about 5 or 6pm maybe a little later.

Keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the NOAA Radio
That line is starting to look ominous. Im looking southwest of my location and sky is darkening.

I too hear the distant rubbles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dense Fog Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1127 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...DENSE FOG IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...

.WARM...MOIST AIR IS OVERSPREADING COLDER WATERS...RESULTING IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

CTZ009>012-NJZ005-006-011-NYZ071>081-112000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FG.Y.0001.080111T1627Z-080111T2000Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1127 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU
110. P451
Yeah it is.. it's exploding too each frame. Definitely looking rough for the afternoon. Never expected that to intensify so much so quickly. I knew there'd be some storms and a hit of heavy rain but this is ridiculous! [and fun :) ]

composite radar

thats why I grabbed the camera gear. Last few days showed the same thing. Small little storms early in the morning then BAM a line forms and just keeps getting worse and worse.

Appears its doing the same here. PHI Forcast office keeps the mention of isolated tornados in the forcast this afternoon till around 4pm.

Im ready and will be on the road in about 15-20 minutes. I am going to try and get some photos
heavy rain starting now
NE your in line for the next round. cells coming from Conn newrd. Look pretty potent too. seeing some 55dbz sigs
Ok Now I KNOW OKX is smoking crack and cant be trusted anymore....



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1146 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 17Z...WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING INTO CT AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAIN/TSTMS HAVE ENDED...AND
WILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WITH
WARM...MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTH OVER COLDER
WATERS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED...REDUCING VSBY TO
UNDER 1/4 MILE IN MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...NYC AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 20Z...THEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.


where in the name of god are they looking?? ended where?
ok folks off to the races!!! see what I can get on film!!
good luck bone,looks bad for me here too,I really don't ever remember an event like this in the middle of January.
117. P451
Well, nothing severe as of now, just an advisory statement:


AT 1254 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PERTH AMBOY
TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMDEN TO 46 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER. THE
LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST BUT INDIVIDUAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE ARE
RACING NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
SOME STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND FOR THE MOST PART DO NOT
SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND.

118. P451
Just posted an MD for central and southern Jersey.

Link

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
2 products issued by NWS for: Waltham MA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1247 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

CTZ003-004-MAZ004>006-011>018-020-RIZ001>007-111845-
BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN
KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN
WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST
PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK
MA-TOLLAND CT-WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN
NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
1247 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

.NOW...

AT 1245 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MYSTIC CONNECTICUT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND...AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH 2 PM. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM MAY FLOOD LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

I don't think I ever remember seeing an alert talking about heavy thunderstorms,and followed by a warning of a potential hvy snowstorm in 2 days.
Good afternoon everyone!

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. It got fairly rough here in Baton Rouge yesterday but nothing to intense.

Very windy most of the day leading up to the thunderstorms though!
122. P451
Yeah, NE, I can't recall such a situation either.

I recall say a 55 degree day followed by a nor easter 2 days later - but - not 60+ with strong to severe thunderstorms prior to such a potential snow event.

Definitely one of the more closely related extremes I can recall.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NJ...DE...SERN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111805Z - 112000Z

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS ERN NJ...SWWD INTO SERN MD...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...IS
NOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN DE INTO SRN NJ. 60F+ DEW POINTS ARE NOW
OBSERVED AT DOV AND ALONG A NARROW AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
INTENSIFYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EXTREME SRN NJ. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY GIVEN MID 60S
TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE
ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL...BOTH LINEARLY AND PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE
RESTRICTED LAND MASS AND TIMING OF CONVECTION TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
IT APPEARS AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THEY WILL
INTERACT WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER MARINE LAYER THEN WEAKEN AS THEY
SPREAD OFFSHORE. FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..DARROW.. 01/11/2008
P,its what makes weather so interesting in these areas,I guess.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
140 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM...
NEW YORK HARBOR...

* UNTIL 230 PM EST...

* AT 136 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS FROM 4 NM
SOUTHWEST OF RARITAN BAY TO 22 NM NORTHWEST OF LITTLE EGG INLET...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 KT.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
THE VERRAZANO NARROWS...SANDY HOOK...LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR AROUND
155 PM...
ROCKAWAY INLET...SANDY HOOK BAY AROUND 200 PM...
AMBROSE LIGHT AROUND 210 PM...
MIDDLE BAY AROUND 225 PM...
JONES INLET AROUND 230 PM...
the convection with 90W continues to organize while crossing the Phillipines

127. P451
Yeah I hear ya NE, diverse weather is fun.


Well, the thunderstorm line is moving through. Heavy rain with winds around 30 gusting to 40. A couple of good lightning strikes and booms but interestingly they are coming as the precip is waning. While it was pouring we had some pretty odd shifting winds. It'd be due west at 30 then a split second shift to the south at 30 then a shift back west - then even one shift north. Very strange.

Other than that not much to write home about. Pretty dark, heavy rain, some shifting winds maybe reaching gale in gusts, and some lightning and thunder - as I said - behind the main precip band.
Some convection has begun to congeal and build around the circulation of our possible invest area. Looking pretty good right now. Also of note is the fact that shear continues to decline over and around this system.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
128. cchsweatherman 7:12 PM GMT on January 11, 2008
Some convection has begun to congeal and build around the circulation of our possible invest area. Looking pretty good right now. Also of note is the fact that shear continues to decline over and around this system.


that is correct...but these off-season storms are taking the spirit out of waiting 4 for hurricane season.

129. Weather456 2:23 PM EST on January 11, 2008
128. cchsweatherman 7:12 PM GMT on January 11, 2008
Some convection has begun to congeal and build around the circulation of our possible invest area. Looking pretty good right now. Also of note is the fact that shear continues to decline over and around this system.

that is correct...but these off-season storms are taking the spirit out of waiting 4 for hurricane season.


Like I stated when discussing the possible invest on my site, it reminds us that nature doesn't always follow rules and could throw a few surprises.
Here is the latest IR image of our possible invest. I have indicated (roughly) where I believe the COC to be at this time. Take notice that there is now some outflow coming from the NW side of the system and the convection shows some banding patterns developing.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Good afternoon everyone!

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Very interesting story on the Katrina issue. By the way, if any of you knew me as ''Ryang'', this is my new handle.
Hey stormdude! Welcome back man.
Thanks, CCHS!
stormdude77,

Ryang? were u here during 2006..that name sounds familiar
Yes 456, I'm from Barbados...
another Caribbean brother...u live in Barbados?
Yes 456.
i have added up all the severe weather we have seen in the last few days here how it turn out seen about right huh???

Total Reports 597

Tornado Reports 85

wind Reports 298/HI 10

Hail Reports 246/9 LG


when i added evere thing up with the Tornado Reports wind Reports and Hail Reports it added up 648 how can that be if the Total Reports was olny 597???




Taz
Some of the reports appeared under several headings but were classified as only one incident in the final tally?
cool
ShenValleyFlyFish may be
Very excited about the low in the Atlantic!

Off season storms are pretty exciting in themselves because they are "unexpected" in general. Interesting to watch how they develop (if they do).
Good afternoon everyone. I see that low in the atlantic is still on the move. Still fairly disorganized with only one significant band to the north. Strong mid to upper level dry air is preventing the lift the system need to build thunderstorms. Also there are signs of surface divergence with broken stratocumulus clouds skirting to the west of the area of low pressure. It should be noted that upper level positive vorticity maximum is still well defined on water vapor imagery vertically tilted with the surface low. It still has the potential for subtropical or baroclinic development before a surface cold front sweeps it out to sea.

That low, like most of the weather this week, does NOT resemble January weather.
Tropical Depression 08F/99P Preliminary Update 2

Issued 2000 UTC 11 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical depression 08F located near 15.9S-175.2W drifting eastward. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. SSTs are 82F-85F and wind shear is 10 knots.

The LLCC of 08F was very difficult to locate hence the reason for the preliminary update. Until QuikSCAT and better information becomes available, the center will be based solely on synoptic reports and personal judgment - and not just the reports themselves but calculations derived from those reports like relative and absolute vorticity. Surface winds and sea level pressure were also based on synoptic reports. Satellite imagery shows an elongated area of broad showers and thunderstorms with curve banding to the north. The LLCC is not readily identified in satellite an image meaning the disturbance is slow to organize. Environmental conditions still favor tropical cyclogenesis and global models - the CMC, GFS and NAVY NOGAPS are still hinting the development of a tropical cyclone from this disturbed weather area.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 99P INVEST.15kts-1010mb-136S-1777E
Here's a summary of everything on the low today:

5. Weather456 9:46 AM AST on January 11, 2008
For those who may miss it,

Alll the system needs to do is contract the radius of maximum winds (RMW) and aquire some convection that will alow it develop a warm core in the upper levels. Currently a flat to cool thermal core exist near 200 hpa, which is not subtropical or tropical in nature. Aslo the system appears to vertically stacked in terms of circulation (winds) but not** in terms of the thermal structure due to 30 knot wind shear. It has unitl Sunday to get its act togther before it becomes absorbed by a cold front.


39. Weather456 11:08 AM AST on January 11, 2008
subsidence is ocurring in almost 90% of the circulation of the invest area


72. Weather456 12:27 PM AST on January 11, 2008

over the center or the circulation? I am seeing cumulonimbus clouds over the center but the circulation still has fair-weather cumulus present to the SE and SW*.
*

74. Weather456 12:30 PM AST on January 11, 2008
still the system is rather impressive still needs the lapse rate between the SST and the air temp at 500 mb to steep enough to get some convection going.


Impressive
90W crossing the Phillipnines

Previous Update

Tropical Invest 90W Update 3

Issued 0900 UTC JAN 11 2008 by W456
Reissued 2100 UTC JAN 11 2008 by W456

Tropical disturbance 90W centered near 10N-124E moving towards the west northwest. Estimated surface winds are 20 knots and minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Wind shear is 5-10 knots and SSTs are near 82F.

Position poorly based on past microwave imagery and low level infrared winds. Surface winds and pressure estimated using synoptic reports. This disturbance continues to produce strong-moderate showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northwest of the well-define LLCC. The latest update shows the center nearing the coast of Mindanao Island in the Philippines. Environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a tropical depression once the system moves westward across the Philippines Islands, and into the South China Sea. After which the cyclone should turn southwestward under the influence of the NE Monsoon flow a product of the very strong Siberian High.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 90 WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-103N-1245E


I now have a floater on 90W

not one nor two but several land stations over Central Eastern Russia is reporting pressure above 1060 mb. The Siberian High is finally anlaysed 1063 mb. Coldest temps near the center of this super cold core surface high is -57C.
The Siberian High is cold core becoause when analysed surface isotherms are nearly parrallel to surface isobars. The subtropical ridges are warm-core highs - due to adiabtic warming cuz by subsidence. Some more highs:

St. Helena High - South Atlantic Warm
Pacific High - NE and C Pacific Warm
Azores High - Eastern North Atl Warm
Bermuda High - Western North Atl Warm
I forgot the name of the SE Pacific High Warm
North American High Cold
what is the potential for the low thing in the natl to become a sts?
Those are semi-permanent highs....you also have transitory high and like the name implies, the travel. They travel behind cold fronts of mid-latitude disturbances.

I found transitory highs to be extratropical highs* and mainly found in Western Oceans or Eastern Side of Continents like SW Pacific, NW pacific, NW Atlantic. I am not so sure about the S Indian ocean.

* for example, a high over the Eastern US will be warmer near 80W than near 100W along 35N.
...the water temps are definitly to low for any tropical development and there is alot more corriollis affect this time of year so it would be hard for something tropical to spin up that far north of the equater..IMO maybe in the spring, although I think that we could start to see alot of Nor'easter storms the way things will be up setting along the north east coast the last half of Jan... could be alot of snow coming for N.E....good playoff weather
152. hurricane24 6:04 PM AST on January 11, 2008
what is the potential for the low thing in the natl to become a sts?


a low to moderate chance....good circulation but limited convection, no warm core yet and the issue with the front.
I think i have figured out why I spend so much time following this blog. I've been hypnotized by all the spiral images which are posted here.
154. stillwaiting 6:09 PM AST on January 11, 2008
...the water temps are definitly to low for any tropical development and there is alot less corriollis affect this time of year so it would be hard for something tropical to spin up that far north of the equater..IMO maybe in the spring, although I think that we could start to see alot of Nor'easter storms the way things will be setting along the north east coast the last half of Jan... could be alot of snow coming for N.E....good playoff weather

Do you realize what u have just said? Coroiloce force increases from the Equator at 0N to the Poles at 90N/S....so the latitude of the maybe invest is ripe in potential vort. Coriolis is a force that does not decrease with the seasons or we would not have had those powerful extratropical cyclones like those in the N pacific right now as a type. yes u are correct with the SSTs part.
Show me a report of anything warm core forming in that area this time of year ..did you see a shooting star last night or something??
158. stillwaiting 6:21 PM AST on January 11, 2008
Show me a report of anything warm core forming in that area this time of year ..did you see a shooting star last night or something??


lol....dude i actually saw one two nights ago but i'm not goin to tell u were it shot went.

no one said anything about any thing warm core forming....it is a small to modest chance but it has nothing to do with coriolis.
to me it looks to be an anomally of the NHEM flow iam observing if uyou look at this image u can see how the global cir. around the pole is shifing further over asia west europe south to n middle east over n indie up along asia coast all the while retacting further nw from n mex across se noa west and cen atlt then veering over ne europe could be reasoning behind wacky weather of late Link
Just want to say good night to everyone and I hope it will be a much quieter night.
later cchs
158. stillwaiting 4:21 PM CST on January 11, 2008
Show me a report of anything warm core forming in that area this time of year ..did you see a shooting star last night or something??


Here:

Subtropical Storm One
Duration January 18 — January 22
Intensity 50 mph (85 km/h), 1002 mbar (hPa)
A meteorological oddity, the first storm of the season developed from an upper level trough on January 18 while 1,725 miles (2,800 km) east-northeast of Puerto Rico. It moved westward, intensifying to a 45 mph (75 km/h) subtropical storm over the central Atlantic Ocean. Climatology prevailed, and the storm dissipated on January 23, 230 miles (370 km) northeast of Puerto Rico.

Subtropical Storm One became the earliest recorded tropical or subtropical storm to form in the Atlantic basin, and the only one to do so at all during January, when it formed on January 18. Note that two storms on record, Hurricane Alice from the 1954 season and Tropical Storm Zeta from the 2005 season have formed during December and lasted into January.






Not truly tropical, but then it was January.
still waiting no ones claiming any thing at the moment just in watch mode
Also, I am not sure what the water temperature was like in 1978, but it is slightly warmer than normal in that area right now:

hello stl
Hello all! As you might notice i only come out of my hole when something tropical is going on lol. I am going to issue my own special Tropical disturbance statement on my website with my take on this what should be an investigative area right now. Ill report back when im done thanks

As always you can access my site here.
Folks i have updated my site with information on this disturbed area in the Alantic. Post comments and enjoy! Click Here
will it make it to 26/65 this low from what i think i see it will
Multispectural imagery continue to show a tighting of the circulation and convection remains limited but gradually building. AMSU-A overpass indicate no warm-core struture has form.

hello JFV
Hey 456, JFV, I see that Sub-Tropical Thing is still out there? Still no 90L?
nope no 90L yet
Hello All. Hope everyone is doing well tonight... I see a little interest is peaking on the blog tonight.

Tropical Jet Streams

Tropical Jet Streams include the Tropical Easterly Jet, African Easterly Jet, Subtropical Jet Streams, Low Level coastal Jets and Nocturnal Low Level Jets. But today, I will focus on the subtropical jet stream.

The Subtropical Jet: Japan

Subtropical jet streams (STJ) are climatological features of the tropical general circulation. Over the NH in winter, the STJ possesses a threewave pattern with ridges and maximum speeds over eastern North America, the Middle East and south of Japan. The mean latitude ranges from 20"N to 35"N. Steadiness exceeds 90 percent and speeds may occasionally exceed 200 knots. Over the SH the winter STJ exceeds 100 knots only over and to the east of Australia, where it lies near 27"S. In the image below, the subtropical jet stream is clearly shown south of Japan with its core or jet max near the International Date Line (180"). Its core wind speed is 140-180 knots as seen on the scale in the second image.

In January the mean subtropical jet stream (STJ) reaches 143 knots just south of Japan, after being established in November. The image below is valid 1200 UTC 11 Jan 2008.





Previous Presentations
1. Western Pacific Monsoon Trough, SPCZ, Subtropical Ridges and the NE Monsoon Overview at 10m
2. Upwelling off the coast Central America

179. JFV 10:28 PM AST on January 11, 2008
Hey Weather456, how are you doing tonight bud?


I am doing good. A little bored though.

BBL
Good evening everyone!

I see that 90L is possible. We'll see what happens.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 101630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EST THU 10 JAN 2008
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JAN 2008
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. A66/ DROP 7(28.3N 91.5W)/ 12/1200Z
B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK66
C. 12/0700Z
D. 7 ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/1400Z
F. CLOCKWISE

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
FLIGHT ONE
A. A65/ BACUS/ 13/0000Z

FLIGHT TWO
A. A61/ ZIBUT/ 13/1200Z
JWP
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Clear skies and fair weather is affecting the Gulf Coast States from Texas to Alabama due a 1017 mb high over coastal Texas. Scattered to broken low clouds across the Gulf waters and into the Florida Panhandle within 120 nm of a stationary front along 24N/95W 25N/90W 30N/85W 34N/80W. Large upper trough over the Great Plains producing southwesterly to westerly flow at 200 hpa with mid-high level cloudiness being advected across the Gulf from Central Mexico through 25N/90W and across the Florida Peninsula.

Surface ridging is weakening across the Western Atlantic with patches of shallow cloudiness separated by areas of fair weather. Meanwhile, mid-upper level moisture in the form of multilayer cloudiness is invading the area west of 73W.

A vertically stacked non-tropical low pressure is centered near 26N/59W, movement stationary. Measured surface winds are near 20-25 knots and minimum pressure is analyzed near 1009 mb. The disturbance continues to maintain a well define low-level circulation (LLC) seen on satellite imagery and WindSAT with patches of altoform and cumulonimbus clouds rotating in and around the low-pressure center. The remainder of circulation contains fair weather cumulus due to subsidence and ry air (negative convergence at the surface). The system is producing gale force winds mainly north of the LLC based on QuikSCAT. Wind shear is near 20 knots and SSTs are 24C, indicating anything forming will most likely be subtropical. There are no indications of warm-core in the upper levels as of yet based on AMSU-A overpasses. The forecast is rather interesting. NOGAPS is indicating that the cold front will not be as strong as previously mentioned. This seems fair as the 24-hr surface forecast shows the southern extent of the front opening up to a shear line even before it reaches 70W. Now, two things can happen, one, the northern edge of front may interact with the system enough to pull it out to sea or two, large amounts of vertical wind shear induced by the associated short-wave maybe the Grim Reaper of this disturbance. Interesting situation at hand.


by W456
Would be nice if quikscat or windsat could get a decent pass on the central Atlantic blob.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 11 JAN 2008
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JAN 2008
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 12/1200Z
CANCELED BY NCEP AT 11/1400Z. RE: SYSTEM
NOW FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE.



that fight has now bee CANCELED
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The weather pattern remains relatively quiet tonight. ROABS and water vapor imagery continue to show a good amount of mid-upper level dry air in the atmosphere above a moist boundary layer. Trades continue to advect patches of cloudiness and possible showers across the Caribbean north of 15N from the Leeward Islands to the Terrain of Central America. Heavier cloudiness and showers activity possible across the Central and Southern Antilles where upper level winds is enhancing low level lift along a surface trough near 60W south of 17N.


by W456
WindSat did and its impressive

when looking at the
Plan of the Day make sure you get the right one and not the worg one


For Today (text issued yesterday)

NOUS42 KNHC 101630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EST THU 10 JAN 2008
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JAN 2008
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. A66/ DROP 7(28.3N 91.5W)/ 12/1200Z
B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK66
C. 12/0700Z
D. 7 ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/1400Z
F. CLOCKWISE

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
FLIGHT ONE
A. A65/ BACUS/ 13/0000Z

FLIGHT TWO
A. A61/ ZIBUT/ 13/1200Z
JWP


For Tomorrow (text issued today)

NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 11 JAN 2008
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JAN 2008
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 12/1200Z
CANCELED BY NCEP AT 11/1400Z. RE: SYSTEM
NOW FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE.
JWP
this some tips for when looking at the Plan of the Day so when hurricane season comes you be geting the right one then the worg one
also notice the RMW....this thing only needs convection to be classified as much as an invest.

RMW radius of maximum winds.
the Southern Hem hurricane season is off to a good start there up to 11 name storm and the main peak is not in tell march
i beleive the convection will start building soon got to wait got to get to 26/65 or close to it first
all i can say is brrr this gets colder and colder evere time i look at it its now showing -20 temps at 500mbs and -10 temps at 600mbs and 0 and 10 at 700mbs to 800mbs

Link
192. Tazmanian 11:04 PM CST on January 11, 2008
the Southern Hem hurricane season is off to a good start there up to 11 name storm and the main peak is not in tell march


Most of the storms have been weak and short-lived, except for Daman (which was actually forecast by Fiji to make landfall as a Cat 5 at one point, though it didn't), as is apparantly the norm nowadays; last year was the second least year worldwide:



Notice that it lasted for only about two days.

The SW Indian hasn't even had one hurricane (!!!) yet (last year at this time Madagascar was experiencing its worst season in history, since December); Australia and the South Pacific have had only one each. Of course, it is still early in their season.
hello taz
ok STL


hi keeper


good night all
later taz
Japan Meteorological Agency

WWJP25 Weather Chart (0000 UTC 12Jan)
=====================================

LOW PRESSURE AREA
14.0N 125.0E - 15-20 knots 1008 hPa

moving northwest at 10 knots

PAGASA

Tropical Disturbance Synopnis
===========================
At 2:00 AM PST, a low pressure area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 50 kms east of Samar (12.0N 126.0E). Embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. This low pressure is also affecting Metro Manila.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary 0600z 12Jan
==========================================
An area of convection (90W) located near 11.8N 124.2E or 250 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral imagery shows a broad low level circulation center with the majority of convection displaced to the northwest. In addition to interaction with the Philippine Island, moderate vertical wind shear is hindering intensification despite favorable diffluence aloft. The system is expected to move over the warm waters of the South China Sea near the end of the advisory valid time, at which point conditions for development will be more favorable.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 14-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 mb. Becaused the system will be moving back over warm open water the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to FAIR.
MichaelSTL

Lee-Ariel
Bongwe

was reported had reached 65 knots (1 min) sustained winds from JTWC but did not officially reach Cyclone Tropical from Mauritius/Reunion.
Tropical Depression 08F Preliminary Update 2

Issued 2000 UTC 11 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical depression 08F located near 15.9S-175.2W drifting eastward. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. SSTs are 82F-85F and wind shear is 10 knots.

The LLCC of 08F was very difficult to locate hence the reason for the preliminary update. Until QuikSCAT and better information becomes available, the center will be based solely on synoptic reports and personal judgment - and not just the reports themselves but calculations derived from those reports like relative and absolute vorticity. Surface winds and sea level pressure were also based on synoptic reports. Satellite imagery shows an elongated area of broad showers and thunderstorms with curve banding to the north. The LLCC is not readily identified in satellite an image meaning the disturbance is slow to organize. Environmental conditions still favor tropical cyclogenesis and global models - the CMC, GFS and NAVY NOGAPS are still hinting the development of a tropical cyclone from this disturbed weather area.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 99P INVEST.15kts-1006mb-141S-1796E
SW Indian
----
7 Disturbance or Depressions

Bongwe
Celina
Dama
Elnus

Northwestern Australia/Central Indian Ocean
--------------------
should have been TC LEE (July 2007)
Lee-Ariel
Melanie

Northern Territory
----------------
Helen

Northeastern Australia/Queensland
---------------------------------
Guba

Southern Pacific (East of 160E)
-----------------------
8 disturbance or depressions

Daman
Elisa
JTWC had dissipated 99P at 0600z

ABPW10 Bulletin 0600 UTC

it also included the upgraded FAIR condition for 90W.
If PAGASA designates 90W a tropical depression it will be name Ambo.
Tropical Depression 08F Update 3

Issued 0700 UTC 12 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical depression 08F located near 14.9S-179.5W drifting eastward. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. SSTs are 82F-85F and wind shear is 10 knots.

Dvorak enhanced infrared imagery made a little easier to find the LLCC of 08F and along with synoptic reports, a more reasonable and satisfied center has been determined. Surface winds and sea level pressure were also based on synoptic reports. Satellite imagery and its derived products show an elongated area of broad showers, thunderstorms and convergence with curve banding to the north. The LLCC is not readily identified in satellite an image meaning the disturbance is slow to organize. Environmental conditions still favor tropical cyclogenesis and global models - the CMC, GFS and NAVY NOGAPS are still hinting the development of a tropical cyclone from this disturbed weather area as it moves towards the southeast then southwest under the influence of the subtropical ridge.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 99P INVEST.15kts-1006mb-141S-1796E
Puerto Galera, Philippines, as 90W crosses

O'Higgins Station, Antarctica

Wellington Habour, New Zealand

G'morning to you, kind sir! A foggy day here in NorthEast Florida, makes me thing that spring is about to pull up in the driveway, and discuss room and board.
Hello all,
wow...only 5 post from 3 am this morning. Morning stormw and all
G"morning 456, cyber, et al.

456- I don't want any more hunches, ok? but if I have any, should I still share them with you?
456- I don't want any more hunches, ok? but if I have any, should I still share them with you?

Dont let your hunches seem that bad. Remember, knowing it would happen is the best thing. It allows you prepare and you can use to urs and other ppl advantage. If you have anymore, sure.
Good morning StormW, W456, aquak9, CybrTeddy and other early birds ;-)

I'm back home from my winter vacation. Landing on Helsinki airport was quite shaky yesterday (38mph winds), haven't had a ride like that before I think.
The weather here is just like it was all November, stormy and too warm (38 F). Where's the Finnish winter with 10" snow at least and -4 F and below?
The chain of low pressure systems coming from the Atlantic is quite unusual for this time of the year, the high over Russia which normally influences the Finnish winter weather is too far east. Last year it was too weak for half the winter, no snow and no temperatures below 0 F until January 21st and one of the earliest snowmelts as well. This year it also looks like we have to wait at least another week until the high reaches us to provide stable cold weather. Brrr... I better get the rain gear.
Hey guys. I'm taking a trip to DC next Sunday the 20th-23rd, and I was wondering if one of you could tell me if I am looking at a chance of snow bc I've never seen it before. Some live close?
Tornado strikes near Melbourne
Friday January 11, 2008 - 17:25 EDT

A small tornado has hit Nagambie, north of Melbourne, causing widespread damage.

There are no reports of injuries.

Fallen trees and power lines have blocked the Goulburn Valley Highway at Nagambie, and the Northern Highway near Rochester.

Flooding and fallen branches have blocked the Maroondah Highway in both directions at Black Spur, near Healesville.

The state's north-east has been the region hit hardest by wild weather since a cool change earlier today.

The State Emergency Service (SES) says it has received more than 150 calls.

Jilly Charlwood from the SES says the busiest areas have been Euroa, Sorrento and Frankston.

"The main issues that Victorian SES crews are dealing with this afternoon are fallen trees over properties and roads and we've also seen quite a bit of roof damage due to the strong winds," she said.

Nagambie resident Max Fothergill says the wild weather came on suddenly but was over in a flash.

"The rain was solid and the wind was uppity," he said.

"I heard plenty of noise, a lot of noise - it was very surprising as it was calm one minute and the next thing we had a storm on us. If I walked out now, it is almost sunshine."

- ABC

© ABC 2007
Good morning from north east Pac.
Question:
Are records for the track of the northern sub tropical jet stream available?
A friend of mine wonders if the average path of this jet has shifted south over time.
If so (he thinks) this could be one of the energy sinks that masks greater energy retention in the atmosphere because the overall length of the jet path would be greater.
If not: what other mechanisms should we be looking for?
there is a anormally within the current global cir in the n hem the centre has shifted at the north pole and appears to be tilted more towards asia/russia south to cen china along hims over n indie up along n middle east across sw europe wih a warmer secter push as high a ne europe across cen west atlantic across e sea board noa
check out link look at the big piture u can clearly see the shift Link
if link dont work heres url
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/-gadomski/SAT_NHEM/atlanim16ir.html
Good morning folks!

Just wanted to drop to post the lastest anomalies for the atlantic basin and the situation right now kinda worries me as its been a while since ive seen anomalies like this in janauary.Of course things can change as we are a long time away from tropical season but in my opinion this needs to be closely watched as it may ultimately lead to some big problems in the basin.Have a great weekend.

Here is the MAP!



www.AdriansWeather.com
this shift is responsible for stange weather the last little while imo
our naked swirl in west atlantic is holding coarse looks to be movin wsw ever so slowly still holding out for a approach to 26n/65w
23, Do you mean a bad year for the US in 08? And Gate, 23 is most of the time correct.
That is interesting Adrian and go to see you are monitoring the situation as we are 4 months away from the season. I'm not liking that hot pool near the coast of Africa or the one in the Gulf of Mexico. One of the problems we had in 2007 was the the sea surface temperatures were near minimum for tropical cyclone development.
c t i never question any ones comments for all comments together will give a very good outlook thats why i like this site lots of info with many things seen by many people helps me figure out what the hell is going on
Keeper:
Both link and url return error "not found" at my end.
Link
try this then to left click nhem ir then select your anmin the longer the better able to see shift iam seeing
218. FLWeatherFreak91

You got mail.
Keeper

Still getting error message. this will put him at Pen Stat Weather home page

Link
Still no joy there, Keeper. Maybe a goole seach?
link not working either maybe no access but it works for me from penn state univ dept. of meteorology ewall tropical electronic map wall
That worked. Now I need to find Gadomski
Thanks, Keeper and Shen
Alright!
Thanks you guys
Just wanted to drop to post the lastest anomalies for the atlantic basin and the situation right now kinda worries me as its been a while since ive seen anomalies like this in janauary.Of course things can change as we are a long time away from tropical season but in my opinion this needs to be closely watched as it may ultimately lead to some big problems in the basin.Have a great weekend.


The CFS is forecasting cooling in the Atlantic again, as it also did last year (the UKMET GloSea forecast would also be useful here, as it also forecast cooler water):



The Caribbean however is always warm enough (even during the winter), and if there is still a La Nina there would be an increased risk of storms going into it (La Ninas are not necessarially bad because of more storms but because of where they go; for the U.S. neutral years are the biggest threat).
Thanks a lot hurricane23 and Keeper,

the map is the clue for the inexistent winter in Finland. The SST anomaly in the NE Atlantic could be the reason why we have no typical weather for January. The warmer temperatures cause more water to evaporate, hence one low pressure system with loads of humidity and mild temperatures after another races over the Atlantic into N-Europe. Current surface pressure analysis.
The normal situation should look more or less like this: analysis January 2. A strong high over Western Russia /Eastern Finland.
On January 4 the end of the strong ridge is already visible, low "Birgitta" coming across the Atlantic, now situated north of the UK. Wow, what a pressure gradient. A day later the high called "Evi" has already shrunk considerably and on January 8 the pressure of Evi has diminished to 1030 mb compared to the 1045 three days ago.
I wonder when the high can fight back and I'll see the sun again. Well, behind low "Ilse" (on the first map) a high pressure system is lurking just east of the Canadian coast but it is quite unsure whether it moves east or not.
Been a busy Spring like clash of the air masses in the Se. Thursday, the NOAA radio here was chirping like a Sparrow.
Welcome back Pat!!!
Tropical Disturbance 90W Update 4

Issued 2100 UTC 12 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical disturbance centered near 12N/118W moving towards the west. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1007 hpa. SSTs are 28C and wind shear is 10-15 knots.

The LLC of 90W was located using shortwave channel 2 infrared imagery from NOAA, which clearly shows a circulation in the Eastern South China Sea. Surface winds were estimated from QuikSCAT and synoptic reports. Pressure was found using the minimum pressure reported by synoptic reports. CIMSS water vapor winds indicate that a large upper ridge centered over the Western Pacific Ocean is enhancing anticyclonic flow over the disturbance. This flow is causing some of the thunderstorms to remain north of the LLCC. Global models indicate that the system will gradually pull away from this high and intensify some while moving west then southwest across the South China Sea in response of the NE monsoonal flow.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 90W INVEST.20kts-1006mb-121N-1195E
Cloud Streets over the Caspian Sea. Image by MODIS on Terra

that looks cold !
cool
243. P451
Ah, finally, quite possibly the first "real" snowfall of the season for east-central jersey.

SUNDAY NIGHT
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

MONDAY
CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.



Up til now only had 1 sleet storm of 1 inch, 1 storm of 1" snow, and two other dustings. Kinda hoping for this one to deliver!

Seems like further north it's going to be 6"+
Image of the low taken earlier today by GOES 12 GVAR Channel 1 Visible imagery.



Heavy rain without all the drama (wind).
hey...just a quick off the subject question on what a weather man said...if it is zero degrees and going to be twice as cold as that...would that be -2 or -10...anyone know how they come up with this?
247. P451
hey...just a quick off the subject question on what a weather man said...if it is zero degrees and going to be twice as cold as that...would that be -2 or -10...anyone know how they come up with this?

You have to wonder what scale they base it off of and converting back and forth.

What would you base it off of? F, C, or K ???

70F, twice as cold, would be 35F given mathematics....

But 0F? There is no twice as cold given the 0 so you'd have to assume a different scale was used.

0F is -17C, so twice as cold would be -34C, no? Which would be -31F?

You got me, man.... that's an odd one!



Evening All,

For all you Northeast Snow Lovers:

"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
410 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY
MORNING WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...REACHING SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON."
thanks P451 I do not know the answer to that as well...just what a weatherman said up in the NY area...had me stumped
@p451:
0F is -17C or about 256K

Twice as cold would be 128K or -145C or about -230F! Better grab some really warm clothes!
246. bswigg 6:49 PM CST on January 12, 2008
hey...just a quick off the subject question on what a weather man said...if it is zero degrees and going to be twice as cold as that...would that be -2 or -10...anyone know how they come up with this?


To answer than, you would first have to convert to Kelvin (absolute temperature scale), since Fahrenheit and Celsius are based on the freezing point of water and Kelvin measures the amount of heat (0 K or absolute zero indicates no heat energy). So 0*F would be -230*F if it was twice as cold, and 0*C would be -136.5*C.
In addition, this explains how a small increase in the greenhouse effect (increased CO2) can have such a large affect on global temperatures, since an increase of just 1% actually means an increase of a few degrees after converting to Kelvin; the average global temperature is about 14.5*C, or 287.65 K; an increase of 1% is 2.88 K or 2.88*C - which is quite a lot, as it would raise the average to 17.38*C.
253. beell
Of course if it was going to be twice as cold tomorrow (and I would go with -145.43C also)and considering that the lowest recorded temp is about -89C, then global warming theories might need a second look and the met should seek employment elsewhere.
A cool question.
RSMC Nadi

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2100 UTC 12Jan)
====================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Eight-F [1001 hPa] located near 14.1S 179.0W is reported slowly moving southeast. Postion POOR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea Surface Temperatures around 29-30C. A definite low level center is difficult to locate at this stage but Quikscat shows a surface trough in the area. Environmental pressure in the vicinity are low so center pressure falls are minimal at this stage. There is now organized convection with major activity located to the north.

CIMMS indicates the system lies in a low to moderately sheared environment. 08F remains under a mid level trough and lies just south of an upper 250hPa ridge with an active convergence zone to the north and a strong surface ridge to its south. Further development is still possible. Most global models have lost 08F expect for the EC model which does not favor any further development.

The potential of this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW to MODERATE.

System #2
-----------

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2100 UTC 12Jan)
====================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-F [999 hPa] located near 19.8S 174.5W. Position FAIR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observation including Quikscat Pass. Sea Surface Temperatures 28C. Low Level Cyclonic Curvature can be seen in satellite imagery and a low level circulation center is evident in the recent Quikscat Pass. Major convection is active in the eastern and southern quadrants without much organization.

CIMMS indicates the system lies in a high shear environment. Global models have picked up the system but do not deepen it further and all agree on a general southerly movement.

Potential of this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hour is LOW.
Good Morning!
Thank you for the rare tornado in WA update that was interesting!
256. P451
@p451:
0F is -17C or about 256K

Twice as cold would be 128K or -145C or about -230F! Better grab some really warm clothes!


Well, I believe you would have the theory of half of zero correct. I'd go with Kelvin as well. I also doubt I'd fare very well in that temperature. :)


Fahrenheit is based off of the assumed temperature that skin freezes. 0F

Celsius is based off of the assumed temperature that water freezes. 0C

Kelvin is based off of absolute zero the assumed lowest temperature possible on planet earth.

So, for Earth, I would convert to Kelvin, make your calculation (selected temp / 2) and then convert back to whatever scale you were using in the first place, in this case, fahrenheit.

(about to go OT here)

Works good for us but to take this further is Kelvin really the absolute? What about past or future Earth? Would 0K really be the coldest achievable temperature? What about elsewhere in the universe? Given unknown atmospheres, pressures, chemicals....can we really assume our desire to label 0K as the absolute coldest temperature possible be fact or arrogance?

To build upon that what about the measurement of time? For the US - It's the year 2008. So is half of the current time really the year 1004? Or... is it -2.25B Years? (Given the assumption that Earth is approximately 4.5B years old).

What about the time frame of the life of the universe? Or the "zero hour" of the big-bang?

I don't really believe you can answer any question based on our desire to use mathematics to solve problems. Or our assignment of a numerical scale to such measurements.

You can't really define a "0" in terms of temperature or time. You can only use widely accepted scales given present knowledge.

So, in the end, there IS no answer to what is twice as cold as 0F.

*runs before he tears the very fabric of the universe apart*

...sorry to go nuts on the topic. Blogs are meant to share ideas, yes? Just food for thought...




Meanwhile...back to winter weather. I'm praying this storm gives me that 2-5 inches of snow because the next system, once touted by the GFS to be a major nor-easter, is now being forecasted to be a mix of rain and snow come Friday for my region. Bleh....

Well P451 that was very entertaining ... now I suggest you get back on the medication!!! LOL
Tropical Depression 01W Update 5

Issued 1300 UTC JAN 12 2008

First tropical cyclone of the year forms in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean centered near 13.5N-116.3W moving towards the west northwest. Estimated surface winds are near 30 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1005 hpa. Wind shear is 20 knots and SSTs are 28C.

A recent QuikSCAT showed a well-define low level close circulation (LLCC) with associated winds of 30 knots in contaminated and uncontaminated wind barbs extending outwards 27 nmi. Synoptic reports indicate that the central pressure is near 1005 hpa. Recent visible and multispectral infrared imagery show a fairly organize depression with lop-sided convection west and northwest of the LLCC due to southeasterly flow at 250 hpa. Global models and the recent JTWC warning track still takes the depression west then southwestward due to the influence of the northeast monsoonal flow; while intensifying little.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 01WNONAME.25kts-1005mb-130N-1181E





Tropical Disturbance 90W Update 4

Issued 2100 UTC 12 JAN 2008

Tropical disturbance centered near 12N/118W moving towards the west. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1009 hpa. SSTs are 28C and wind shear is 10-15 knots.

The LLC of 90W was located using shortwave channel 2 infrared imagery from NOAA, which clearly shows a circulation in the Eastern South China Sea. Surface winds were estimated from QuikSCAT and synoptic reports. Pressure was found using the minimum pressure reported by synoptic reports. CIMSS water vapor winds indicate that a large upper ridge centered over the Western Pacific Ocean is enhancing anticyclonic flow over the disturbance. This flow is causing some of the thunderstorms to remain north of the LLCC. Global models indicate that the system will gradually pull away from this high and intensify some while moving west then southwest across the South China Sea in response of the NE monsoonal flow.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 90W INVEST.20kts-1006mb-121N-1195E


The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO): Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) by W456

Wikipedia defines the MJO as an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale. The mechanism and cause of the MJO is yet not well-understood and is a subject of ongoing study.

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where convection is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days.

Now, one of the tools use to track the MJO is the amount radiation being emmited by the earth called outgoing long-wave radiation (the incoming radiation is shortwave). Deep convective clouds block some of this radiation from being picked up satellite sensors in space (passive in nature). This process is similiar to the microwave snesors I use from NRL.

In the image below, negative anoamlies of OLR are indicated in blue and positive anomalies in red. Negative anomalies mean below normal OLR is being sense becuz of the deep convective clouds. Now, follow the progation of this anomaly. Notice it travels eastward, as stated in the definition. That is the active phase of the MJO.

The current location and eastward movement of the MJO means that there is the potential for an enhance Pineapple express when the MJO reaches the Central Pacific.
Convection developing with the invest area in the subtropical atl.

264. P451
257. sydneyaust1 6:43 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Well P451 that was very entertaining ... now I suggest you get back on the medication!!! LOL



LOL! Done!



Wow, a convective burst near that Atlantic swirl? Those swirls have been persistent!


Well, looks like the models have shifted more towards an all-snow event for me up here. Now 3-5 inches. I can live with that - that will be nice.

North Jersey is looking for 6-12.
Good morning everyone!
mornin storm
I have a question.
Why does the media (weather channel, etc) always hype up N.E.(Boston, etc) snowstorms? They act like its not supposed to snow in the Northeast during the winter.

Now if there was a snow storm expected in Atlanta or New Orleans, that would be big news.
Even though it's the Weather Channel, it's still the media. They hype up anything that may create some irrational fear in people. It's the ratings, baby!
456 - Thanks for the update on MJO - this is of great interest to Weather Watchers in North Queensland - I will definitely pass this one with acknowledgement - also what is the 'Pineapple Express' - this actually sounds like an Australian term but I am not familiar with it.

There was some talk of a Low currently croosing Cape York emerging into the Coral Sea possibly intensifying also a developing low off the Coast in the Coral Sea - we will see.

Again, thanks for the excellent post.

Cheers.
What is driving this westward propogation of negative SST anomalies?



Answer: Above normal easterlies...a typical La Nina feature

269. sydneyaust1 11:57 AM AST on January 13, 2008
456 - Thanks for the update on MJO - this is of great interest to Weather Watchers in North Queensland - I will definitely pass this one with acknowledgement - also what is the 'Pineapple Express' - this actually sounds like an Australian term but I am not familiar with it.

There was some talk of a Low currently croosing Cape York emerging into the Coral Sea possibly intensifying also a developing low off the Coast in the Coral Sea - we will see.

Again, thanks for the excellent post.

Cheers.


Thanks the pinapple express is an North American term used to describe a peristent flow of moisture extending from Hawaii to any location on the west coast of the N America. This feature is enchance by the MJO.

Wikipedia Page

like huh???? am i looking at this right this is showing snow for San Francisco, CA

Link
cool

January 13th, 2008 at 1:02 am
00z GFS has pretty unbelievable pattern for days 8-12–with significant snowfall for most of CA (including San Francisco, etc.!). Won’t happen, but is indicative of a high likelihood of very cold weather before the end of the month in CA with the possibility of some storm activity
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO A
POSITION WELL SOUTH OF MARTHA'S VINEYARD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT RAINS OVER THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING SUNDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
BE TRICKY TO NAIL PRECISELY...BUT THE BEST COLD AIR WILL BE OVER
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINA. ON MONDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN.
..WRAPPING MORE MOISTURE INLAND. BY MONDAY
MORNING'S COMMUTE...THIS EVENT WILL PREDOMINATELY BE A SNOW EVENT
WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRADDLING THE COASTLINE. FOR
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST.
THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
DAYS...AND MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IF THIS
STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE... LESS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER
NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEASTERN STATES.
I think the GFS is bluffing on that cold snap for the West.

If it comes true will not not be as cold or as far south.
we will see huh lightning10
Basic Features of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) by W456

The Chaco Low and Low level Jet - a climatological heat low over Central South America. Air flows into the Chaco low from the SE and NE Trades via the a low level jet (LLC) east of the Andes.

The moist onshore flow converges and rising bringing the monsoon rains.

SACZ is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone between the flow around the St. Helena High in the South Atlantic Ocean and the flow around the Chaco Low. The SCAZ is best seen in satellite imagery and rainfall accumulation measurements (See third image).


The air rising in the Chaco low is evacuated via a large upper high called the Bolivian High. Its cousins are the Tibetan High of Asia and the Monsoon Ridge of North America.





TRMM
A major nor'easter is beginning to brew in the Atlantic today and will impact northern parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England tonight into Monday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall near the coast of New England starting later tonight.

The coastal area of low pressure will move northward today, causing rain and thunderstorms along the East Coast from Virginia to Florida. Some areas already have received rainfall from this storm system; however, the beneficial rain for the region is localized and mainly along the coast.

The South Regional News story reports that the storm will develop today and will bring more short-lived shower activity to eastern parts of the Carolinas to southeastern Virginia.

The Northeast will have one more day of calm weather before the storm starts to impact the region later tonight into Monday. According to the East Regional News story, the storm will drop a widespread swath of 6 to 12 inches of snowacross New England. A narrow zone of a foot or slightly more will bury the area from northern Connecticut to places just north and west of Boston, Mass.

Snow amounts will be much less across the mid-Atlantic coast as rain will mix with the snow on tonight in slightly warmer air. However, the northern and western suburbs of New York City will still receive 3 to 6 inches of snow. The snow will come to an end by Monday afternoon, but not before slowing the city's morning commute.

Residents of the Northeast should continue to monitor the upcoming winter storm since the zone of heavy snow could shift inland or eastward if the storm tracks, respectively, closer to or farther from the coast.

a correction to the trmm image...it should say SACZ not SPCZ.
Japan Meteorological Agency

No Tropical Cyclone Bulletins/Warnings

WWJP25 Weather Chart (1200 UTC 13Jan)
=====================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13.3N 117.1E - 30 knots 1006 hPa

moving west-northwest at 10 knots

PAGASA

Weather Synopsis
==================
At 2PM PST, a low pressure area was estimated based on satellite and surface data 220 kms west of Mindoro (13.0N 118.5E). Tail-end of a cold front affecting Northern and Central Luzon.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
=============================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression One has 1 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. The depression located 235 NM west-southwest of Manila, Philippines and is reported moving west-northwest at 8 knots.

Significant wave height associated with 01W is 13 feet.
I can not believe it we have an invest in January
Nor'easter To Slam Southern New England
BOSTON (WBZ) ― Enjoy your Sunday, because the commute Monday will be a mess across southern New England.

WBZ meteorologist Todd Gutner says a Nor'easter will move in overnight, bringing more than a foot of snow to several communities.

It will start around 3 a.m. Monday. There will be rain throughout southeastern Massachusetts and snow across the rest of the state.

Heavy snow will move in all over southern New England around 6 a.m. and stay until the afternoon. Gutner says the snow could fall at a rate of an inch to an inch-and-a-half per hour. There will be mostly rain on the outer Cape and Islands.

The snow will start to taper off in the late afternoon. Both the morning and evening commutes will be treacherous.

By the time it's over, Gutner says the Boston area and communities north and west could get 10 to 15 inches of snow. Most of southeastern Massachusetts could get anywhere from six-to-ten inches, while Plymouth County will see three-to-six inches.

The Cape and Islands may not get significant accumulation, but Gutner says the wind will be a problem. Wind gusts there could exceed 50 miles-per-hour, and there is a high wind watch in effect.
tHE nhc has name this an invest

hi all

the SDD site has too noted and we now have a Invest to track

Link

90L

Link
Hello folks, I must say i do not like the look of what this coming hurricane season may have to bring...I mean come on we are still talking about inves's in January?

Anyway i am going to go update my site with information on what is now Invest 90L! Ill report back when im finished.
dos it have a ch of being are 1st name storm???
286. Tazmanian 2:11 PM AST on January 13, 2008
dos it have a ch of being are 1st name storm???


everthing has a chance. I give it a low chance.
Personally im thinking that we will have a couple more Invest's before the off-season starts to act like an off-season.
sounds like it only has a 24-48 hours to develop before its absorbed by a larger extratropical low.
track mark 28.1n59.9w invest 90l
atlan basin stationary
convection is getting shear e any ways but the trick is how big the convection becomes and if can fill itself in before being blown away
Tropical Depression 01W Update 6

Issued 1800 UTC JAN 12 2008

Tropical depression 01W located near 13.5N-116.0W moving towards the west. Estimated surface winds are near 30 knots and minimum central pressure is near 999 hpa. Wind shear is 20 knots and SSTs are 28C.

A recent AMSU-A overpass showed a well-define low level close circulation (LLCC) with associated winds of 33 knots extending outwards 27 nmi. Synoptic reports indicate that the central pressure is near 999 hpa. Recent shortwave infrared imagery show a fairly organize depression producing vigorous squalls near the center which allow the pressure to deepen from update 5. However, the LLCC remains partially expose and the convection lop-sided due southeasterly vertical wind shear. Global models and the recent JTWC warning track still takes the depression west then southwestward due to the influence of the northeast monsoonal flow; while intensifying little as it enters cooler waters.



by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC - 01W NONAME.30kts-1000mb-133N-1171E

The area of interest is only on the SSD Satellite page as invest.
It has not been assigned a number yet and is not on the NRL and no model runs are on the SFWMD site either.
So, there is no invest in the Atlantic basin at this time.
Good afternoon all! I see the NHC has called our Central Atlantic low an invest today. It does look like it has some life and the circulation remains rather vigorous. It has a very slight chance for an upgrade, but it is a unique invest to watch.

We've just gotten a nice thunderstorm here in Cooper City, Fl. There was some ponding on the roads here and some nasty lightning. It was the first thunderstorm we've had in nearly three months. Looks like we've got more to come by the looks of the radar from Central Florida.
a new low is forming under the convection right now
I do not see that a new low is forming under the convection, thunder, although it is very close to the convection.
Is it me or does it seem like the circulation has begun to fall apart? Maybe thunder is correct that a new low may be forming underneath the convection.
if you look at this you will see what I mean

I just saw that Thunder. Good observation. It gives it a much better chance for further development and survival, although those chances still remain rather low.
I was watching the loop over and over and was like what is going on why is it falling apart then the next frame told me a new low was forming
that is not a new low...the system is decouple...that is acutally the mid level low.
That does not mean thunder is wrong...but that mid-level circulation will have to extend to the surface first.
I have been watching it look at the SW corner of the "new low" and you will see a marked increase in convection
Thundercloud01221991,

there is a circulation but its not close nor at the surface.
I have been monitoring that also Thunder. I wonder if the NHC will issue a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement since they have designated the area an invest.
Whats up JFV? Long time since I've heard from you. I sent you a message a couple days ago.
Been doing pretty good JFV. Just got a nice thunderstorm here for the past hour with some ponding occurring here in Cooper City. First thunderstorm here in nearly three months. Did you get my message?
i like the way dr masters dosent bother with a new blog when the tropical atlantic hasnt really died lolz
Got to go now. Send me a message if you want to contact me. I'll be back later. Hey JFV, could you answer the question I had in my message? Thanks.
Both the GFS and NAM are developing the Campeche low a bit more. It looks to be crossing Florida next thurs and frday.
This is what i see..this is why i think the system is decouple along with 30 knots of wind shear

I believe you just it may form another low under that low if it can do it fast
Thundercloud01221991 3:51 PM AST on January 13, 2008
I believe you just it may form another low under that low if it can do it fast


Yeah...ur correct...i was stating there is a surface low forming not formed.
Im back. Is there anyone here right now?
is it poofing or puffing lol
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO....

A cold front, accompanied by a swath of broken to overcast cloudiness and scattered showers extending from the Bay of Campeche to the Florida Peninsula, will continue to push across the Southeast Gulf of Mexico giving way to surface high pressure and fair weather over the Texas, the Deep South and the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. This high will increase the northwesterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico behind the front. Global models continue to show a surface trough will form in the Bay of Campeche and deepen as it moves northeast across the Gulf and into the Florida Panhandle. After which the low will rapidly become extratropical at the end of the forecast cycle.


by W456
hellow cch


Hope everyone is ready for this
322. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:38 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
is it poofing or puffing lol


I can't tell. Let's ask Ricky Williams. LOL
Hey 456. How much rain should we expect coming up this Thursday and Friday here and at Lake Okeechobee from this potential low? We got some nice rain here and at Lake Okeechobee today, but we need so much more.

Also, you there JFV?
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A cold front continues from the Florida Peninsula and along the Atlantic shores of the United States East Coast with a 1011 mb low attached near 31N/81W. Deep shower activity within 100 nmi of the front and low. Expect this low to continue northeastward parallel the US East Coast while deepening into a vigorous storm system.

The main feature across the Atlantic this afternoon is a low pressure area centered 1010 mb at 28N/69W. The circulation remains broad but well defined. Subsidence caused by dry air within the right exit quadrant of an upper ridge over the Caribbean is causing much of the western* part of circulation and Atlantic east of 75W to remain void of shower activity. Fair weather dominates.

by W456
CCH,

roughly 1-2 inches based the speed of the storm and the vertical vel.
There is convection rapidly building in the NE quadrant of this system. I believe that the mid-level circulation mentioned by 456 may have already worked down to the surface. It is looking slightly better in the last few frames of the RAMSDIS loops. Are you seeing this 456? By the way, great synopsis 456. You are quite proficient in these synopsis.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Deep ridging and dry air dominates the Caribbean Basin today. Thereby deep convection remains absent and fair weather dominates. The trades will continue to advect patches of surface moisture across the Islands inducing periods of scattered showers. Since there is not much to discuss I will tell you how the weather in Saint Kitts was today. Mainly fair to partly cloudy skies with passing stratiform showers. Winds were light but occasional breezy behind showers activity. The high remain relatively low today due to suppress heating. The air currently is starting to become chilly quick just like for the past week or two where I saw and experience exceptionally low temperatures and dew points.


By W456
cch,

what i am seeing is that a low is trying form under the small area of convection. There is a closed mid level circulation and below at the surface is also another circulation but is it closed? Trying to close off. I am seeing the bands to the south but no indications of air circulating inwards to the north. The older larger circulation is restricting that from occuring.
BBL
AT last Rain, glorious rain! Light rain here in SRQ/GOMEX - even hear a few rumbles of thunder. It felt soo good to be wet! Looks like this front will bring in some surf waves tomorrow - hoping for a quickie session before work tomorrow.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST SUN JAN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A 1034-1036 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OREGON INTO IDAHO.
FORECAST REV-SAC GRADIENT OF 4-5MB OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS DRYING OUT THE SIERRA. EXPOSED AREA RHS ARE
CURRENTLY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE 30S AND WE DO NOT EXPECT
THESE AREAS TO RECOVER VERY WELL WITH EASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS
SLOWLY ERODED AGAIN TODAY AS STRATOCU DEVELOPED IN ITS PLACE WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. LOOK FOR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS STRONG INVERSION AGAIN WILL DOMINATE. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A 30 DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FOR THE SRN SAC
AND NRN SJ VALLEYS. IT IS THIS INVERSION THAT WILL DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO REDEVELOP. MON...FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD TRANSITION TO STRATOCU BY MID MORNING AND QUICKLY
ERODE BY NOON AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NRN SAC VALLEY WILL ALLOW
MONDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS TO DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING...WHILE THE NE
MTN VALLEYS WILL DIP FROM MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TUES MORNING
WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE FOG/STRATUS...BUT NOT AS THICK OR
WIDESPREAD AS THE WARMING DOWNSLOPING MTN WINDS WILL PARTIALLY MIX
UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK SYSTEM WILL SKIRT NRN CAL TUES
MORNING...BUT ONLY IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
JCLAPP

.EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. NORTH TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR FOR WEDNESDAY.
WHILE NORTH TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THE FLOW DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG AT NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND MAY
BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR MANY AREAS THAT SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ONE MODEL INDICATES A COLD BUT RELATIVELY DRY
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING LOW
SNOW LEVELS WHILE ANOTHER MODEL HOLDS OFF ON ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK BUT RETROGRADES A VERY COLD SYSTEM
DOWN FROM CANADA
. RB
how cold you think this SYSTEM will be from CANADA they ues the word vary cold



VERY COLD SYSTEM DOWN FROM CANADA
Statement as of 4:07 PM EST on January 13, 2008


... Scattered snow and sleet showers to affect the North Carolina
mountains tonight...

A weak upper low will move across the North Carolina mountains
early this evening. Scattered rain... snow and sleet showers will
accompany the low. The higher elevations of the northern
mountains... as well as Buncombe and Madison counties... could see
minor accumulations of snow and sleet this evening.

After the low moves by... cooler air will filter into the region on
northwest winds. This will result in more snow shower activity
along the Tennessee border. A few locations could see up to a half
inch of snowfall overnight... especially in the northern mountains.
Also... as temperatures fall below freezing... areas of black ice
will form in many locations.





where did evere one go???


any way highs for dr m next week by sat will olny be 15 thats cold
Well, the rain stopped all too soon here in SRQ, I was hopeing for a real down pour. we need the rain so badly.Working at a Polo barn I am constantly reminded that this drought is going on way too long. the drought has affected the hay feed business, not only is hay hard to find due to a pour harvest and pastures not replenishing due to lack of rain. We have had to get bales much sooner and we need more then normal. Hay & feed are also up in price because of fuel prices. The drought and the fuel increases are a double whammy. And still no real measurable rain. Horse industry and I am sure cattle industry must be feeling this.
Heres a look at that cold air from the GFSx Taz. Of course its a bit robust now though.

850mb will be below zero over much of the northeast. 0 degree isotherm will sink all the way to the panhandle of Florida.

wow Drakoen could ca see any of this???
Northern California yea. Still way out there and we are talking about the GFS who loves to advertise cold weather in the long range. The 500mb trough will be setting eastern U.S. and a high pressure ridge will be in place for the west. After that time frame a positively titled trough will be coming down from Canada to the west which will mean cooler weather for you.

hello everyone
trackmark 28.1n/58.9w atla bas inv
Drakoen i under line some in in the bold for you to seee


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST SUN JAN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A 1034-1036 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OREGON INTO IDAHO.
FORECAST REV-SAC GRADIENT OF 4-5MB OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS DRYING OUT THE SIERRA. EXPOSED AREA RHS ARE
CURRENTLY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE 30S AND WE DO NOT EXPECT
THESE AREAS TO RECOVER VERY WELL WITH EASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS
SLOWLY ERODED AGAIN TODAY AS STRATOCU DEVELOPED IN ITS PLACE WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. LOOK FOR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS STRONG INVERSION AGAIN WILL DOMINATE. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A 30 DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FOR THE SRN SAC
AND NRN SJ VALLEYS. IT IS THIS INVERSION THAT WILL DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO REDEVELOP. MON...FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD TRANSITION TO STRATOCU BY MID MORNING AND QUICKLY
ERODE BY NOON AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NRN SAC VALLEY WILL ALLOW
MONDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS TO DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING...WHILE THE NE
MTN VALLEYS WILL DIP FROM MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TUES MORNING
WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE FOG/STRATUS...BUT NOT AS THICK OR
WIDESPREAD AS THE WARMING DOWNSLOPING MTN WINDS WILL PARTIALLY MIX
UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK SYSTEM WILL SKIRT NRN CAL TUES
MORNING...BUT ONLY IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
JCLAPP

.EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. NORTH TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR FOR WEDNESDAY.
WHILE NORTH TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THE FLOW DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG AT NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND MAY
BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR MANY AREAS THAT SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ONE MODEL INDICATES A COLD BUT RELATIVELY DRY
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING LOW
SNOW LEVELS WHILE ANOTHER MODEL HOLDS OFF ON ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK BUT RETROGRADES A VERY COLD SYSTEM
DOWN FROM CANADA
. RB
Yep thats right Taz. Still a ways out but thats what the models are showing.
. Drakoen could i see valley snow???
Hello Thunder, Drak and Taz!
348. Tazmanian 1:21 AM GMT on January 14, 2008
. Drakoen could i see valley snow???


Where do you live in California?
in the foothills sonora ca
Taz, I doubt that it going to snow that far south in California. Best you can do, though, is keep track of the model trends.

BTW do you live in the mountains?

Tropical Depression 01W looks impressive

. Drakoen nop in the foothill
I think this may turn into the first tropical storm

Look at the increase banding features

until another weather day...later
355. Weather456 5:44 PM PST on January 13, 2008
I think this may turn into the first tropical storm


yes i this look at the navy site they now have the winds with TD 1W up to 35kt and a mb of 996 so this is now a TS
we now have Tropical Storm 01w
I see that Taz, thanks but the it wont get a name from the JTWC, the JMA.

B4 I go....here's the lastest quickscat of the subtropical disturbance. U can decide for urself if a new low was forming or formed already. Compare with satellite imagery position. :-)

Later
And once again, TS 01W looks to be a short-lived tropical cyclone... Not surprising, considering STL has commented on this many times, and I've seen it myself since 2007. I'm speaking of the short-lived tropical cyclones worldwide. It will be interesting to see if this continues in 2008 in all basins.
Hello again everyone

Be sure to view the ''tropical weather'' questions on my blog, (You can view it, here)
Japan Meteorological Agency

No Tropical Cyclone Bulletins/Warnings

WWJP25 Weather Chart (0000 UTC 14Jan)
=====================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.8ºN 114.9ºE - 30 knots 1008 hPa

moving west at 12 knots

PAGASA

Tropical Disturbance Advisory
===========================
At 2 a.m. today, an active low pressure area was estimated based on satellite and surface data 530 kms west of Southern Luzon (14.2°N, 115.5°E). Cold front extending over Central and Northern Luzon. Intertropical Convergence zone affecting Visayas and Mindanao.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #4
=============================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm One has 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is located 330 NM east of Nha Trang, Vietnam and is reported moving east at 12 knots.

Significant wave height associated with 01W is 14 feet.
SPC -
Day 3 Conv
...active train of strong shortwave troughs will continue to migrate
east/southeastward across the country this forecast period. One of these troughs
will be ejected from the Ohio/MS valleys eastward to the eastern
Seaboard...in response to a stronger system digging southeastward from the
Pacific northwest/northern rockies into the northern plains/central rockies. This
second system is expected to evolve into a highly amplified longwave
trough over the central U.S. Wed/Thu.

...DETAILS CONCERNING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HAVE SHOWN GREAT VARIABILITY BETWEEN T[W]O DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS RUNS...





not up to speed on this blog- most of my weather comes from the west and I am way west of most posters on N.A. continent. Just now: Mild winter temp. no wind. Went to the boat today and cranked the old Mercruiser 165 - she started!
I keep watching this blog because I get notices here about severe weather (and earthquakes) in my area long before they show up on my local news.
RSMC Nadi

System #1
----------

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
15.5ºS 179.3W - 20 knots 1002 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2300 UTC 13Jan)
====================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Eight [1002 hPa] located near 15.5S 179.3W is reported moving slowly. Position POOR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea Surface Temperatures around 29-30C. A definite low level center is still difficult to locate at this stage. Quikscat maintains a surface trough in the area. Environmental pressures in the vicinity are rising slightly. There is a pulse of convection in that area but with no definate organization.

CIMMS indicates that the system still lies in a region of upper diffluence in a low shear environment. A convergence zone remains active to the north and strong ridge to the south. Global model has lost 08F.

The potential of this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is downgraded to LOW.

System #2
-----------

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
20.5ºS 174.2ºW - 20 knots 1001 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2300 UTC 13Jan)
====================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine [1001 hPa] located near 20.5S 174.2W. Position POOR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Radar Imagery with animation. Sea Surface Temperatures around 28C. Low level cyclonic curvature is hard to see in satellite imagery. Convection is sheared but to the east without much organization.

CIMMS indicates the system lies in a high sheared environment, Global models do not deepen the system any further and move it off rapidly to the south-southeast.

The potential of this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Brisbane Bureau of Meteorology - Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (14Jan)
==============================
The monsoon trough extends across the Northern Coral Sea and across the base of Cape York Peninsula. A broad tropical low, with the main center 996 hPa currently located near Innisfall, is slow moving. The system remains tilted in the vertical in an area of moderate shear. This combined with the proximity to land ensures that the system has a low probability of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

With the environment likely to gradually improve by Thursday, the chances of development increases to moderate.

Bureau of Meteorology - Perth

(1) Central South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (14Jan)
==================================
There are no other significant lows evident in the central southeastern Indian Ocean at this time.

(2) Southeast Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (14Jan)
=================================
There are no other significant lows evident in the central southeastern Indian Ocean at this time.

Darwin Bureau of Meteorology - Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (14Jan)
=================================
There are no other significant lows evident in the central southeastern Indian Ocean at this time.
Japan Meteorological Agency

No Tropical Cyclone Bulletins/Warnings

WWJP25 Weather Chart (0600 UTC 14Jan)
=====================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.5ºN 113.9ºE - 30 knots 1004 hPa

moving west-southwest at 10 knots

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
=============================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm One has 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is located 260 NM east of Nha Trang, Vietnam and is reported moving west-southwest at 12 knots.

Significant wave height associated with 01W is 14 feet.
Tropical Storm 01W Update 7

Issued 1000 UTC JAN 14 2008 by W456

Tropical storm 01W is located near 12.0N-113.1W moving towards the west-southwest. Estimated surface winds are near 30-35 knots and minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Wind shear is 10-20 knots and SSTs are 27-28C.

The low-level closed circulation (LLCC) was estimated using high-resolution visible imagery, microwave imagery and synoptic ship reports which coincidently surrounds the tropical cyclone. Based on QuikSCAT, synoptic reports and AMSU-A, the estimated surface winds is 30-35 knots extending outwards 38 nmi. Minimum pressure reported by ships on the periphery of the storm was 1004 mb, which corresponds to 1003 mb near the center. The cyclone displayed a brief intensification period in the past 6-12 hrs as wind shear relaxed as the system pulled away from a deep-layered ridge over the Western Pacific Ocean. Currently, satellite imagery still revealed a fairly organize system with the LLCC remaining under the convective mass surrounded 0.50 of premature spiral bands. However, the cyclone is beginning to interact with the cold northeast monsoonal flow to its northeast (look at the cold air stratiform clouds) which has the system looking somewhat "not appealing" to the eyes of a tropical forecaster. The forecast calls for the storm to continue on a more southwesterly track over the South China Sea and into the mouth of the Gulf of Thailand in 48-72 hrs time.

By W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 01W NONAME.35kts-1000mb-124N-1137E




I'm surprised it is keeping it's circulation together with all the islands around there.

Who updates the Climate Change monthly weather anomoly chart? I am curious about December.

Have a great morning.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
231 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

VALID 12Z MON JAN 14 2008 - 00Z WED JAN 16 2008

THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AND
THE NORTHEAST. ALL THE WHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MARRY UP WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TO GENERATE A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
WILL STRADDLE THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
TUESDAY.


Photobucket


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
346 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

VALID 12Z MON JAN 14 2008 - 12Z THU JAN 17 2008

DAY 1 AND 2...

NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES...
A STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
REACH INTO NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. NAM/GFS CONCENTRATE THE HVST SNOW
TODAY WEST OF THE CIRC OVER ERN NEW ENG AS ATLC MOISTURE WRAPPING
INTO THE COAST SLOWLY DEPARTS. MODELS SUPPORT THE HVST SNOW AMTS
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE WHERE 6 INCH PLUS AMTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. AN ELONGATED TROF EXTENDING WEST THRU NY TO MI WILL
FOCUS LIGHTER SNOW AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST FROM WI TO OHIO. LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED
DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS CENTERED ON WV WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR SOME HEAVIER TOTALS.





URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
614 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...A COASTAL STORM IS PRODUCING A PERIOD OF HEAVY AND PLOWABLE SNOW
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING...
THEN MOVE OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE
MORNING RUSH HOURS.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-NHZ011-012-015-141600-
/O.CON.KBOX.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080114T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
614 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN...
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE OR TWO
INCHES AN HOUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MERRIMACK
VALLEY.

ENOUGH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TO CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO
DOWNED POWER LINES.

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS FROM THE COMBINATION OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
A strengthening nor'easter moving today up the Eastern Seaboard will bring heavy snow across eastern New England, where totals in a few locations can approach a foot. Meanwhile, another storm is brewing for later in the week, and one of the coldest air masses of the year is preparing to surge into the U.S.
Heavy snow this morning will fall across New England, while warm air will result in rain along the Interstate 95 corridor from New York City to Washington, D.C.

In many areas, visibility is below a mile as heavy snow accumulates at rates ranging from 1 to 3 inches per hour. Heavy, wet snow will fall close to the coast, including Boston, Mass., and Providence, R.I., while the snow in interior areas, where temperatures are several degrees below freezing, will be drier.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CT...NRN RI...MA...SRN NH...SRN AND ERN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 141209Z - 141715Z

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN AND ERN ME LATER THIS MORNING.

EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
MOVING NEWD INTO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AREA. SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE
COD WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS
CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF NRN CT...NRN RI INTO CNTRL MA AND SRN
NH. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SPREADING NWD. THIS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ZONE OF STRONGEST 800-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD WITH TIME
THROUGH SERN NH AND ME. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVER SRN ME. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE-700 MB LAYER IS
RELATIVELY DRY IN THIS REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE ONSET OF HEAVIER
SNOW IN ME WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 14Z OR 15Z WHEN THE
INCREASING ASCENT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER...SUGGESTING SOME LOCAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 01/14/2008
374. P451
Well that storm was a big bust for us here in central Jersey.

Ended up with about 3 hours of moderate rain ending around 1am. Then.....nothing else. No rain, no snow, no wind. Nothing.

Pretty bad forecasting there.
good morning to all,snowing here in eastern mass. but not as much as they originally forecast,I can deal with this.
morning all, hey NE...hows it going?
probabilistic...hmmm...okay.
I just love how they keep forecasting major snowstorms for New York City and nothing happens.
hey folks

woke up to a nice heavy 6 inches :)

everything below 900 feet got rain.

gotta love living in the mountains
Well heres the thing, there are Good thing and bad
things about the Blogs during Post-Season Months,
Good-
+ No fighting
+ Less posting
+ Some freindly Comments
+ Get to watch other Tropical Cyclones form
+ NO TROLLS
Bad-
+ Boring as could be
+ Hardley anyone to talk to ever
+ No tropical Cyclones
+ No Info on which ways the Tropical Cyclones are going (Cause theres no Tropical Cyclones)
+ All the info people leave
+ No Forcast on the Tropics
Good afternoon all. Just updated my site earlier today. I have mentioned that there is very little confidence in the forecast models and I am not certain regarding the forecast for Thursday and beyond. Question. Is this train of Canadian fronts expected to move through South Florida?

Looks like the "invest" area we had been monitoring the past few days has finally surrendered and is now getting absorbed into a cold front traversing the Atlantic. Hopefully, we won't have to monitor anymore nuisance lows until this hurricane season.
good afternoon to all
afternoon all
Afternoon gang. So tell me please......who got all the snow?
I dunno, Cyber Teddy...winter storms have been pretty entertaining... that West coast one was huge and had winds up to a cat 5. That was a bigger landfall than any of the tropical storms in the US this past hurricane season. crazy storm... then theres the tornado outbreak..that was fascinating. Lots o' crazy weather!
I have a about 7 or 8 inches,much more to the north of me
afternoon.


I got 6 wet inches.

probably a 6:1 or 8:1 ratio. I will upload pics later tonight. Got some awsome shots :)



AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO DOWN EAST ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 141755Z - 142300Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AOA 1 INCH SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.

STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST COUPLED WITH WRN EDGE OF MORE INTENSE MESOSCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT /AS SEEN IN VARIOUS PLANAR FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS/
HAVE RESULTED IN A WELL-DEVELOPED...HEAVY SNOW BAND FROM VICINITY OF
MWN TO BGR TO SE OF HUL AS OF 1730Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH
TIME IN CONCERT WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS.

RUC PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
OBSERVATION OF LIGHTNING OVER ERN MA SUGGESTS THAT LAPSE RATES
/PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND/ MAY BE STEEPENING FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOW
RATES.

SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER SWRN ME BY
19-20Z WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING NEWD WITH TIME AS LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE NE.

..MEAD.. 01/14/2008
funny thing everything below 900 feet here in Nj was rain. When i got off the mountain and looked back twords my home was funny to see snow capped hilltops.
I look forward to the photos Bone.

We are having perfect Chamber of Commerce weather here in FL today. bright sunshine, 72F...44% humidity...N breeze @ 15mph and a 48F dewpoint.
Let me check to see if the beach cam is working.
Australia disturbance

Shot of Jensen Beach on Hutchinson Island FL:


Beach
*whimpers*
LOL Vort that Cam shots is a long way away from the cold Northeast :)

Hey Lake. Get much snow?
Bone,
It was like paste,sticking to the trees,quite of few big branches have come down today,we also had thunder around dawn this morning.
NE Thats how it was by me too. All the trees look like a snow gun got them. Made for awsome pics though :)

even made a snow man with the wife last night around midnight
LOL....not bragging about it....but if I was to brag...today would be the day to do it! LOL
Its all good Vort.
no accumulations here, some spotty LES with mixed precip...the radar show nothing, but these are forming just as soon as they pass right now. I'm getting the full fetch w/ lake erie (winds are SW) but they are going to turn more Westerly, so it will be shortlived.
gotcha Lake.
TD 09F needs to be watch

404. IKE
Point Barrow, Alaska in the deep freeze...

"Observed at: Barrow, Alaska
Elevation: 43 ft
[Clear]
-44 °F
Clear
Wind: 5 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 30.09 in (Rising)
Windchill: -61 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 8.0 in"
LOL NWS already issuing a Hazardous Weather outlook for thursday night storm here.

Guess they think it might be something to watch.

My money is on the 20-21 system. Since it started showing on the long range models its been looking like a monster.
bone thursday night friday storm,looks too warm,going to be a lot of mix with that storm,didn't hear about the 20 21 storm.
Posted November 2007
January Follow Up

Tropical Front

A weather front is a boundary between two masses of air of different densities, and is the principal cause of significant weather. In surface weather analyses, fronts are depicted using various colored lines and symbols. The air masses separated by a front usually differ in temperature, humidity and stability. Examples of fronts include cold front, warm front, occluded fronts and the ITCZ.

This tropical front in the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean actually separates two different air masses - the cool, stable, low humidity marine layer of the SE trade regime and the warm, unstable, high humidity air of the NE trade wind regime.

As they collide with each other the warmer northeast trades are lifted over the more stable southeast trades. Imagine rolling bread doe between your hand which are moving different directions - thats how the frontal ropes form.

Cloud streets are rows of cumulus or cumulus-type clouds aligned parallel to the low-level wind.

The most favorable conditions for their formation occur when the lowermost layer of air is unstable, but is capped by an inversion-by a stable layer of air. This often occurs when upper air is subsiding, such as under anticyclonic conditions, and is also frequently found when radiation fog has formed overnight. Convection occurs below the inversion, with air rising in thermals below the clouds and sinking in the air between the streets.



going to be a close one NE on the 17-18 storm. Cold air in place all this week will be enough to have it start as snow. All depends on track how far inland the warm air gets to determine snow/rain line. Dont think it will be too big. Looking at maybe 3 inches.

The big storm is in the 20-21 time frame is actualy 23rd. My mistake. That looks like a monster and has been there since it was picked up way back when.



Look out guys. Some cold weather is in store for the eastern U.S. coming all the way down to Florida tonight. Possibly even colder air coming in this weekend.

GFS 1000mb temp.



ETA surface temp.
this is great....

SSRC Press Release
413. GBlet
Bone,I read that article and it still has my brain spinning! Time to break out the canning jars and start a stockpile! This could most definately bring on a event we are not at all prepared for.
410. Bonedog 9:08 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
this is great....

SSRC Press Release


Extremely interesting article and I recommend all to read it.
yea its a head turner!! Made me sit back in my chair.

I read it 3 times over again lol.
so where does Global warming stands?
ooo and thanks to everyone for that aewsome rating of my pic. Thanks again
417. Weather456 9:55 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
so where does Global warming stands?


If you refer to the article, then we won't be seeing much warming for a few decades. The next few winters will be interesting for sure.
Thanks for the article, Bonedog........I am forwarding the link to all the GW blogs ;-)
3:40 P.M. Patrap out of surgery. Surgeon "Dr.James Brown" said everything went well... Pat is in recovery now... Barefoot and Redhead are here keeping me calm... Will post again soon... Thanks for all the love and prayers and well wishes... Teresa...
422. GBlet
I wonder how this will affect spring and summer over the next few years.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary 2130z 14Jan
========================================
An area of convection (93P) near 19.1S 147.2E or 150 NM south-southeast of Cairns, Australia. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center positioned on the eastern edge of a large area of deep convection. SMSI Image indicates curved banding over the western quadrant wrapping into the northern quadrant. Recent radar data from the townsville radar shows a well-defined low level circulation center over water located about 25 NM northeast of Townsville. Surface observation indicates a surface low pressure of 996 mb and surface winds sustained near 30 knots increasing in intensity over the past 6 hours ast the low level circulation center tracks southward.

Upper level environment is favorable with weak to moderate vertical wind shear and an anticyclone over the center as well as good poleward outflow enhanced by a trough to the southwest. Maximum sustained winds near the center is 22-28 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 996 mb. The major limiting factor is interaction with land which should continue to hinder significant debelopment for the next 12-24 hours, Therefore the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is FAIR.



Written by Weather456

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 14 2007 by W456

Tropical Depression 09F is located bear 17.0S-164.5E



---

sorry to say this but 09F was last reported near 20.4S 174.2W, so 91P is not TD 09F
ok thanks hades...i'll correct the name to 91P
Tropical Invest 91P Update 1

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 14 2007 by W456

Tropical Invest 91P is located bear 17.0S-164.5E, movement stationary. Surface winds are near 20-30 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1006 mb. Wind shear is near 10-15 knots and SSTs are 85F.

A recent QuikSCAT pass indicate the low-level close circulation of 91P is rather broad so center fix was difficult with associated gale force winds in two bands to the south and north quadrants. Estimated surface pressure is near 1005 mb based on synoptic reports. Visible imagery showed a well-organized disturbance with excellent tropical cyclone signatures, deep convection and curve bands. Global models indicate conditions will remain favorable for a tropical cyclone form in the next day or so as the system moves towards the southwest around the subtropical ridge. Furthermore, models have indicated beyond this forecast cycle that 91P may grow into strong extratropical storm that may affect New Zealand.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-155S-1625E

you're welcome I found this..

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (unnumbered) [1002HPA] NEAR 18S 160E SLOW MOVING.

Fiji had release a Marine Bulletin of an disturbance close to 91P coordinates.. kind of between area of responsibilies of Brisbane and Nadi so it remains unnumber at the time.
428. JLPR
Nice pic Weather456
=D
yeah hades...i just check the map it showed the elongated LLCC lies across 160E

thanks JLPR
looks like the JMA made an error in not naming the system if Dvorak Intensity was 3.0
La Nina, Tropical Cyclones (Helen and 93P), the Monsoon trough and MJO all ganged up on Northeastern Australia to bring heavy rainfall. If that had happen in Central America it would of been devastating.

Interesting Tropical Facts

Wind stress caused by increase easterlies associated with the MJO slows down the the angular momentum of the Earth causing the Earth's rotation to slow by 3/10 of a millisecond. That is how I remembered it.

Only 4% of a saturated air parcel is water vapor molecules.
No more global warming. It's over...yea!!!!!
GFS update on the sunday morning lows for the Southeast. Again very robust with the zero degree isodrosotherm sinking all the way down to South Florida.

1000mb temp.

look at this


very cold weather over the state of CA before the end of the month. It will almost certainly be bitterly cold over 80-90 percent of the Continental U.S.; the question is whether not not (or to what degree) this unmodified Arctic air may make it west of the Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF have been flip-flopping over the past few days, but each model has had its fair share of weird and unbelievable prognostications (heavy snowfall in San Francisco, deep freeze in San Diego (and I mean on the beaches!))
Taz where are you getting that information from?
did any one no that the super bowl XXXII was on
here


Link
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Issued at 10:50 am AEDT on Tuesday 15January 2008

Synoptic Situation: A Low [995hPa] is located on the coast near Townsville and moving slowly inland.

Heavy rainfall to 50mm has fallen in the past hour on top of heavy rain overnight which may cause some local flash flooding.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters

The next warning is due to be issued by 3pm today.

----
93P.INVEST
NWS Miami for tonight

DISCUSSION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
AND THIS DRAGGING ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SE OF THE S FLA
PENINSULA COAST. MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
LEADING TO A COOL OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE SHOWING
UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE OKEE TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SE CST.
Great article from the ssrc!! I've always thought we were just going threw a cycle.
ohs watching the super bowl tonight??
it must be an old superbowl taz this year its on i think feb 3rd
ok where sould they be playing at this year
are super bowl is playing down at san diego ca this year
Official site of Super Bowl XLII, played February 3, 2008, in Phoenix, AZ. Includes analysis, news, video, and a history of the NFL's championship game


oh ok now i see
ABPW10 PGTW 212130

wow the days went by so fast, The JTWC states today is January 21st already. =P
haha and I went back in time with that post. ^.^
this dos not tell me any thing can some one give me more in sight on whats may be going on with the colder weather comeing my way thanks



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST MON JAN 14 2008

EXTENDED...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FAIR
SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY WILL DECREASE
THE OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
AGAIN AND THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. SOME COLDER CONTINENTAL
AIR FROM CANADA LOOKS LIKE IT COULD START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
mode runs and maps would be nic
Heres a look at Sunday Morning from the GFS Taz. It will be cold across the nation. Also i want to note that there will be some light to moderate precip in California precip as a postively tilted 500mb trough digs southward. Possibly a developing mid to upper level low along the vorticity lobe which is the San Fran snow event that the GFS is picking up on. The 540 line will be far enough south but it still looks very ambitous and robust at this point with the GFS bias on SW cold weather events. As we get closer to the event we will get a better idea.

Drakoen thanks could all of ca see snow???
454. P451
Oh, LOL, after completely botching this supposed crippling NE'er that was supposed to leave 3-6 of snow here in central jersey but only left 3 hours of moderate rain... their forecast for tonight? Partly cloudy low 28.

Guess what? it's snowing now at 35 degrees. Got a 1/2 inch on the grassy areas. Radar shows continued precip moving in from E Penn.

heh......... nice job on that one.
GM all


Drak the subtropical jet stream is not located over the Gulf. It is a feature that is normally located east of the North America somewhere between 80W and 40W from 20N to 35N.
the southwesterly flow is created by an upper level trof over the CONUS...whereas the subtropical jet is created north of a climatological upper high over the Caribbean.
456. Weather456 1:53 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
GM all


Drak the subtropical jet stream is not located over the Gulf. It is located east of the North America somewhere between 80W and 40W from 20N to 35N.


The winds are associated with the jet stream i didn't say it were the jet stream was located.

The winds are associated with the jet stream i didn't say it were the jet stream was located.

subtropical jet stream moisture advection in ur graphic
459. Weather456 1:59 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
The winds are associated with the jet stream i didn't say it were the jet stream was located.

subtropical jet stream moisture advection in ur graphic


exactly lol. The moisture is being advected from the Pacific into the Gulf by the Jet stream winds.
exactly lol. The moisture is being advected from the Pacific into the Gulf by the Jet stream winds.
Action: | Ignore User


I know that but why did u called it the subtropical jet stream.
The Australia Day Challenge
Internationl Rugby League Match

Date: 26 January 2008
Location: Hodges Stadium, University of North Florida
Audience:10,000 Rugby League fans from around the globe
Contact (904) 536-7501 or www.australiadaychallenge.com

Two of the best International Professional Rugby League teams are set to clash in the USA for the first time. The South Sydney Rabbitohs (Australia) will for the first time play the Leeds Rhinos (England) in an international Rugby League match held in the USA. Jacksonville's very own American National Rugby League team
the Jacksonville Axemen are kindly helping host the teams while they are in Jacksonville and are organizing all ticket sales.

These guys wear no padding no helmet and only 17 player per team(13 players on the field at one time), no stop action.....this is the real man's game. Anyone in Jacksonville go out and have a look and tell me what ya think. Cheers AussieStorm
What's this I hear about a big rain and wind event hitting the Northern Gulf Coast?

Is this something we in New Orlenas should be concerned about?

From Weather.com: zip code 70130
...LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LARGE AND RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY.

STRONG EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAY START TO IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WATER LEVEL RISES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS...OUTSIDE OF THE LEVEE PROTECTION SYSTEM...FROM WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKES MAUREPAS...PONTCHARTRAIN AND BORGNE... TO NEAR PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.

IN ADDITION TO TIDAL CONCERNS...THE STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE STRONG CROSS WINDS ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES... AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO DOWN WEAKENED TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS.

WIDESPREAD RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS...HOWEVER... DRAINAGE OF RAINWATER COULD BE IMPEDED BY THE HIGH TIDES IN COASTAL AREAS.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.