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Rare January Depression in Central Pacific; Atlantic Subtropical Storm Next Week?

By: Bob Henson 5:10 PM GMT on January 07, 2016

After a record-smashing hurricane season in 2015, the Central Pacific is off to a record-early start with Tropical Depression One-C, which formed on Thursday morning in the waters about 1,500 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. According to NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake, TD 1-C's genesis date of January 7 breaks by six days the record for earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific set by Tropical Storm Winona on January 13, 1989. TD 1-C was able to form because of an unusual wind pattern near the equator associated with El Niño--a burst of westerly winds near the equator, when combined with a more typical east-to-west flow of trade winds farther to the north helped create an area of counter-clockwise spin. A sprawling region of showers and thunderstorms associated with TD 1-C at roughly 4°N and 171°W is located squarely atop some of the warmest waters associated with the powerful El Niño event now under way--29.5°C (85°F). Weak steering currents make it difficult to judge TD-1C's future path, although a slow motion northwestwards appears likely over the next couple of days.

The GFS and ECMWF models support the idea of TD 1-C attaining tropical storm strength between now and Saturday, January 9. If so, it will be named Tropical Storm Pali. Only two tropical storms have been recorded in January across the Central and Northeast Pacific (the region north of the equator and east of the International Date Line) since reliable records began in 1949. The first one was 1989’s Winona, which attained tropical storm strength on January 13 and peaked with sustained winds of 55 knots. In 1992, Ekeka was christened as a tropical storm on January 28 well west of Hawaii before becoming a rare February hurricane, with Category 3 winds reaching 115 mph.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest TD 1-C.

A spin that crossed the equator
Remarkably, TD 1-C appears to have roots on the other side of the equator! Last week, a short-lived tropical depression (TD 9-C) originated as the northern member of a pair of twin cyclones. Such sets of twins usually straddle the equatorial Pacific, with the northern member rotating counterclockwise and the southern member clockwise. In between, these circulations produce a zone of low-level westerly winds that can act to reinforce or intensify El Niño conditions across the equatorial Pacific. Last week’s twin cyclones were displaced so far south that the northern member (eventually to become TD 9-C) was located just south of the equator, close to the International Date Line, with a powerful westerly wind burst in between the cyclones. On the south side of this wind burst, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula has been threading its way around several Southwest Pacific islands since becoming a depression on December 29 and strengthening to a Category 3 cyclone by January 1. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects that Ula will continue its winding path well south of Fiji over the next few days, remaining at weak to middling tropical-storm strength

An animated visible satellite loop created by Dan Lindsey (CIRA/Colorado State University), using data from the Himiwari-8 satellite, clearly shows the counterclockwise rotation as the northern cyclone approached the equator on December 28. Drifting northward, it gained enough strength to be christened TD 9-C late on December 30. Located at 2.8°N, it was the lowest-latitude system on record to become a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere, according to Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel). TD 9-C’s circulation dissipated late on January 1, but the large field of moisture associated with it remained, providing fertile ground for the development of TD 1-C this week.


Figure 2. Left: Streamers reveal the twin circulations along and south of the equator near the International Date Line on December 27, 2015, with a large area of strong westerly winds in between. Right: Infrared satellite imagery shows the large field of moisture associated with the northern circulation, which went on to become Tropical Depression 9. Image credit: (left) courtesy Mark Lander, University of Guam.

Tropical cyclones developing near the equator are very rare, since the Coriolis force (a function of Earth’s spin) does not force areas of low pressure to rotate in either direction at 0° latitude. But tropical cyclones near the equator are not unprecedented. In 2004, the center of low pressure that eventually became Severe Cyclonic Storm Agni in the Northwest Pacific briefly moved south of the equator. Agni became a depression at 1.5°N, tying with Tropical Storm Vamei (2001) as having the most equatorward development of any tropical cyclone on record. The recent strong westerly wind burst between the Pacific’s twin cyclones no doubt helped give TD 9-C some of the spin that it would have otherwise been unable to gain due to its equatorial location.

Elsewhere in the tropics (January edition)
Unusual activity has been percolating in the Atlantic as well. On Tuesday, Brazil’s Navy Hydrographic Center identified a subtropical depression east of Rio de Janeiro. It was briefly classified as a tropical depression on Wednesday, although both designations had been removed in the center's 12Z analysis on Thursday morning. It was once thought that tropical cyclones never formed in the South Atlantic, but Category 1 Hurricane Catarina shocked Brazil--and the world of tropical meteorology--when it crashed into the coast of Brazil’s Santa Catarina province on March 27, 2004, causing more than $300 million in damage. Forecasters are now tracking down subtropical systems in the South Atlantic about once per year, on average, though tropical storms (those with fairly symmetric warm cores) are much less common. Jon Erdman and Chris Dolce have more background on this South Atlantic event in a Wednesday article at weather.com.

There is also potential for a large and powerful January cyclone to evolve over the North Atlantic subtropics between Bermuda and the Azores Islands early next week, as consistently predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. This cyclone is now several hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas, strengthening as an non-tropical system ahead of a subtropical jet stream typical of El Niño winters. A strong upper-level ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone as it races east and then southeast. Phase-space diagrams from Florida State University show this system taking on subtropical characteristics (asymmetric warm core) this weekend and early next week. Upper-level winds will remain strong in the vicinity of this system, and ocean temperatures will be a marginal 24-25°C (75-77°F), suggesting that any potential development would be subtropical rather than tropical. If this storm were to get a name, it would be "Alex." The Atlantic’s most recent tropical cyclone during January was Tropical Storm Zeta, which served as the closing act of the blockbuster 2005 hurricane season. Zeta formed on December 30 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. A classic comma-shaped extratropical cyclone, located northeast of the Bahamas at 1630Z (11:30 am EST) on Thursday, January 7, 2016, has some potential for subtropical development as it moves into the central Atlantic early next week. Image credit: NASA Earth Science Office and NOAA.

Portlight's Paul Timmons to serve as Red Cross Disability Integration Coordinator
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has received some well-earned recognition from the Red Cross, which announced on Dec. 16 that Paul Timmons of Portlight Strategies will serve as disability integration coordinator for the national provider of emergency assistance and disaster relief. Portlight Strategies, based in Charleston, S.C., is the only known national and international disaster relief agency that focuses on serving people with disabilities.

“I’m super excited that Paul has agreed to do this because I think that he’s got a tremendous amount of credibility with the disability community and I think he speaks disaster,” said Brad Kieserman, vice president of Red Cross Disaster Operations and Logistics, in an interview with newmobility.com.

Timmons will be responsible for building disability infrastructure within the Red Cross, including building relationships, improving service delivery and implementing disability specific training. “Kieserman’s embracing of our interests and his embracing of the Red Cross getting our issues right has just been a game changer,” Timmons said. “It’s allowed us to get the conversation out of the American Red Cross headquarters and out into the field where it should be.“

According to Timmons, fixing the divide between the Red Cross and the disability community will require constant community organizing. “We can’t train our way out of this,” he said. “We can’t meet our way out of this. We can’t conference call our way out of this. We have to organize our way out of this.” He encourages the disability community to stay involved in the process.

Because of serious issues such as Red Cross shelters not being accessible, there is tension between the Red Cross and the disability community admits Kieserman, but he’s optimistic the situation can be fixed. “I hope that going into the new year with Paul and Portlight now under contract with the Red Cross, and with the Red Cross committing to increased emphasis and focus on disability integration issues, we will have the opportunity to turn the corner,” he said.

You can check out Portlight's latest activities and donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Is the jet stream getting "kinkier"/"more loaded with heat"?
tropical topics in winter
nice update thanks B.
01C/TS/P/CX
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!
So much blocking.
Yep, 2015 Was The Hottest Year Ever — Here’s Why

Even without El Niño, last year would have rivaled 2014, the previous record holder. The global heat is on.

posted on Jan. 6, 2016, at 7:25 p.m.
Peter Aldhous

In the coming weeks, separate teams of scientists in the United States, Britain, and Japan are expected to announce that 2015 was the warmest year on record. Although their number-crunching is still under wraps, there’s little doubt that last year’s global heat was unprecedented.
That’s partly because of the pulsating red streak across the eastern tropical Pacific shown in the video above. You’re looking at the growth of an El Niño — the warm phase of a natural ocean cycle that disrupts normal weather conditions across the Pacific and beyond.
And not just any El Niño. The current event, which may last until May, is already tied for the strongest ever, and over the next few months may well exceed the intensity of the monster El Niño of 1997-98, which saw Southeast Asia’s forests go up in smoke and beset California with floods and landslides.
Indonesian forests are ablaze again, and El Niño is being blamed for freak weather conditions as far afield as the U.K., hit in recent weeks by heavy floods. Its effects are global, as warm water from the western Pacific sloshes to the east — and, crucially, reaches the surface.

“The tropical Pacific Ocean stores a lot of heat that is buried underneath the ocean surface,” Michael Mann, a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University, told BuzzFeed News by email. “During an El Niño event, much of that heat reaches the surface and warms the atmosphere.”

Global air circulation then spreads the heat around. Right now, this means the planet’s average temperature is about 0.2 degrees Celsius higher than it would otherwise be, Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, told BuzzFeed News.

The current El Niño only began to build toward a crescendo in the second half of last year. So averaged over the whole of 2015, Trenberth estimates that El Niño will have boosted the global temperature by between 0.1 and 0.15 degrees C above normal.

But “normal” is a moving target, driven by the long-term trend of global warming.

Blue shows years that were cooler than the 20th-century average; red, years that were warmer than this baseline. Peter Aldhous for BuzzFeed News / Via ncdc.noaa.gov

The previous record year, 2014, was 0.74 degrees C warmer than the 20th-century average. And data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, complete to the end of November, shows that monthly temperatures in 2015 were averaging 0.87 degrees C above the last century’s baseline.

So by some simple arithmetic from Trenberth’s estimates, 2015 would have been close to matching 2014 even without El Niño. The Pacific Ocean phenomenon simply provided the final push to remove any doubt that 2015 would go down in the record books.
Here are the two most recent years, plus 1998, the last year in which El Niño gave a similar boost to the average global temperature.

Peter Aldhous for BuzzFeed News / Via ncdc.noaa.gov

From this chart, it’s clear why scientists are so sure that 2015 will set a new record. The El Niño year of 1998 looks chilly in comparison. But at the time, it was the hottest on record — indeed, the slightly cooler years that followed were seized upon by some opponents of the scientific consensus on climate as evidence that global warming had halted.

No such luck. Add just a few years of steady warming to the picture, and 1998 seems nothing special — in addition to the last two years, 2005, 2010 and 2013 were all warmer than the most recent El Niño-assisted record.
If El Niño can warm the planet, will global warming change El Niño?

That’s less clear, but a team led by Wenju Cai of CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere in Melbourne, Australia, has run climate models suggesting that extreme El Niños, like the current one and the event of 1997-98, will become more common.
As the planet as a whole warms, Cai told BuzzFeed News, climate models suggest that the eastern Pacific is likely to warm faster than the western part of the ocean, making it easier for the system to tip over into El Niño.
If the world’s nations do nothing to halt the rise in greenhouse gas emissions, Cai’s computer simulations indicate that similarly powerful El Niños will by the end of this century come round every 10 years or so, rather than roughly every two decades.

But it’s hard to tell whether we’re already starting to see any change in the pattern of El Niño and its cool counterpart, known as La Niña, because the cycles are irregular, and occur on a timescale of several years.
“It’s very reasonable, but not yet cast in stone,” David Neelin, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told BuzzFeed News.
Whether or not powerful El Niños become more common, Mann argues that superimposing the phenomenon over an already warm eastern Pacific is likely to cause increasingly severe disruption.
“This is part of why we are seeing such unprecedented weather extremes here and around the world right now,” Mann said.

Not so much El Niño, perhaps, as El Hombre.


heat is on alright just steaming along



month of dec 2015
5 day forecast


compare south pole 2015 jan7 2016 jan 7



MOST POPULOUS CITY IN SOUTH AFRICA - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Johannesburg, South Africa of 38.0 C / 100.4 F was reportedly set on January 7, 2015.

Link
EXECUTIVE CAPITOL OF SOUTH AFRICA - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Pretoria, South Africa of 42.5 C / 108.5 F was reportedly set on January 7, 2015.

Link
Snow depth reports from the Sierra show all of them in the 6 foot range so far for the season. Last year, the number would have been near zero. More coming on Saturday.
compare atlantic sst's jan 7 2015/2016


"Tropical storm Zeta which served as the closing act of the blockbuster 2005 hurricane season."

So could this storm serve as the opening act for a potentially interesting 2016 hurricane season?


Saturdays storm for California? What will 90c do?
Quoting 7. Gearsts:

So much blocking.


In this El Nino year, the blocking is working to keep Pacific storms headed toward the California coast. Next one due in Saturday. More to follow next week.

Storm # 3 still going in Soo Cal, had 1.24" after the front/trof axis passed last night about 7 pmish, have had numerous showers overnight from short waves/PVA totalling .68" for a storm total thus far of 1.92".

Storm 1= 0.01
Storm 2= 2.13
Storm 3= 1.92 and counting

Keep it up El Nino!
Quoting 19. BayFog:


In this El Nino year, the blocking is working to keep Pacific storms headed toward the California coast. Next one due in Saturday. More to follow next week.


Better this way!
Quoting 22. CraigsIsland:



wow.
And as always, quiet boring weather in Louisiana. When am I going to have some fun.
Quoting 22. CraigsIsland:



wow.


That cyclone SW of Hawaii might help start the ultimate Pineapple Express right into the West coast
Quoting 18. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Saturdays storm for California? What will 90c do?

Earth's Great White Spot?
Really great to see Paul Timmons, AKA "Presslord" get the Red Cross New Position.

It's a good thing that we have a Leader in the disability community that can effect change for the betterment of all.

The extended Portlight Family is really proud that this has come to fruition.

The wunderground community has supported Portlight since Sept of 2008.

We look forward to making a difference for the better where and when we can.

Paul Timmons at FEMA Headquarters this past July 30th.







Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters. Thanks to bob too.

Nice comma as the low exits the State.
Quoting 24. RitaEvac:



That cyclone SW of Hawaii might help start the ultimate Pineapple Express right into the West coast


I hope not! We don't want to melt all that nice snow in the Sierras.
Thanks Mr Henson, I really like the way you put things in context here, as always you're doing an awesome research job.
-------
One picture says it all. Something big is happening to the North Atlantic.

Quoting 10. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



month of dec 2015


Here's a somewhat related article published by Richard Alley in 2007:
Wally was Right: Predictive Ability of the North Atlantic Conveyor Belt Hypothesis for Abrupt Climate Change.
Link
--------------
Meanwhile, here is a .gif showing the last two days in the Pacific (IR) (if it works):

--------------
Finally, climate denial is not over yet:
theguardian.com: Era of climate science denial is not over, study finds.
Link
Some very impressive 72 hour Rain and Snow totals for Soo Cal

Link
Quoting 24. RitaEvac:

That cyclone SW of Hawaii might help start the ultimate Pineapple Express right into the West coast

Yeah that seems much more likely for the BIG rains than that large synoptic circulation off shore whose impacts seem to be trending further north.
oops double post . . .
Quoting 31. VibrantPlanet:


Yeah that seems much more likely for the BIG rains than that large synoptic circulation off shore whose impacts seem to be trending further north.

Actually, the ideal mechanism for bringing in epic rainfall would be to have a phasing of the subtropical and polar jets, directed at the California coast, which would manifest as a mid-latitude system entraining deep-layer moisture from the equatorial region. With upper winds dipping so far south this El Nino year, it's not out of the question that one of those dips might tap the ITCZ, or in this case, a tropical system.
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT (KRAL) 2.45 (72 Hrs)
CoCoRaHS (CA-RV-019) North of KRAL
01/05/2016 0.03
01/06/2016 0.77
01/07/2016 1.85
Totals : 2.65 in.
It started raining real hard just after Midnight, Storm #3 is in that 1/7 total.
Only a week into 2016 and we already have 20% of the yearly avg. rainfall (12.40")
Quoting 33. BayFog:


Actually, the ideal mechanism for bringing in epic rainfall would be to have a phasing of the subtropical and polar jet, directed at the California coast, which would manifest as a mid-latitude system entraining deep-layer moisture from the equatorial region. With upper winds dipping so far south this El Nino year, it's not out of the question that one of those dips might tap the ITCZ, or in this case, a tropical system.
and therefore trigger the "ARK" event ped you better get a canoe and a couple of vests together just in case
Big respect for Presslord regarding his recent appointment.
Brilliant, man .
2016, the Year the Atmosphere flexes its growing Water Vapor increase from fossil fuels driving the Warming.

01C/TS/P/CX
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and therefore trigger the "ARK" event ped you better get a canoe and a couple of vests together just in case


Have to borrow one of my Brothers Kayaks and a vest too.
Thank Bob/Jeff. Great entry. Congrats to Presslord...
Quoting 36. pottery:

Big respect for Presslord regarding his recent appointment.
Brilliant, man .
one of the boys one time a girl sorry press always was always will be

congrats
My 2016 Climate Outlook: 'Unprecedented' will be the new norm and 'Average' will be seen as the mirage it has always been. Welcome to the jungle friends!
Quoting 13. DCSwithunderscores:

SOUTH AFRICA'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Johannesburg, South Africa of 38.0 C / 100.4 F was set on January 7, 2015.

wolfram alpha gives the elevation of Johannesburg as 5758 ft
Ugh:Link
++NAO to a super negative NAO
Quoting 46. Gearsts:

Ugh:Link

what about little Godzilla south of it
Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what about little Godzilla south of it
And that cold pool on the south atlantic, Jet Jaguar?
It's getting crazy out there :



"DESPITE THE SEASON...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE."
--NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI.--
The New Human terra-formed Atmosphere will have many more episodes of "WTH?" thru 2016.

Hang on, those un-modeled forcing's are gaining traction,...everywhere around the Globe.
Quoting 46. Gearsts:

Ugh:Link



Re-dubbed from Godzilla:

Meteorologists: ‘Darth Nino’ ties record for strongest seen since 1997-1998; will peak during month of January

Excerpt:

Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters said “Darth Nino may finally have California in its sights,” as a series of storms may dent record drought.
CP902016 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop

Meanwhile, in the stormy North Atlantic:
Quoting 45. ACSeattle:


wolfram alpha gives the elevation of Johannesburg as 5758 ft


The altitude at the botanical garden weather station is about 1624 meters / 5328 feet, which is lower than most of the city.
01C




Almost all gone. Next Rain is Saturday according to the Ch-7 News, WU isn't showing anything yet.
They have next Wed-Thur...
Quoting 33. BayFog:


Actually, the ideal mechanism for bringing in epic rainfall would be to have a phasing of the subtropical and polar jets, directed at the California coast, which would manifest as a mid-latitude system entraining deep-layer moisture from the equatorial region. With upper winds dipping so far south this El Nino year, it's not out of the question that one of those dips might tap the ITCZ, or in this case, a tropical system.

Thanks for the education. Really appreciate the outstanding and informative posts you provide. I learn a lot.
Quoting 63. Grothar:



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
FOCUSED ON A 997 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N74W WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED AND WARM FRONTS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO
31N69W TO 31N63W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW FROM 30N73W
TO 25N74W TO 22N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO
24N72W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY N OF 24N AND W OF 68W.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT GALE
FORCE WINDS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 69W-76W. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate is now on, shows the storm (O1C Pacific) taking off as well:
Link
(and the cool thing is it's automatically updated every half-hour)
Whether it ever gets a subtropical classification remains to be seen, but it's quite likely this storm off the East Coast will roam the Atlantic in one form or another for close to 10 days. Weird weather out there, between this and the C-Pac storm.

Long-term model runs are fun to watch. To have 01C this early is extraordinary, but yet GFS is forecasting 02C to form by Jan 20th.

GFS and European model seem to agree on many characteristics of the coming Atlantic storm. Tight core of maximum winds, warm core, detached from any fronts. However lots of shear and no upper-level anticyclone. Convection in the vicinity of the center, but not much intense rain. I wouldn't rule out even a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 67. elioe:

Long-term model runs are fun to watch. To have 01C this early is extraordinary, but yet GFS is forecasting 02C to form by Jan 20th.

GFS and European model seem to agree on many characteristics of the coming Atlantic storm. Tight core of maximum winds, warm core, detached from any fronts. However lots of shear and no upper-level anticyclone. Convection in the vicinity of the center, but not much intense rain. I wouldn't rule out even a tropical cyclone.
This will be an interesting year of weather.
Oops, bad news again...

A carbon sink that can't be filled (January 7, 2016 by Patchen Barss):
Link
"Since 1990, a team of international scientists have been running experiments in Harvard Forest in Massachusetts, testing the effect of adding (or removing) varying amounts and types of "litter" - leaves, twigs, seeds, roots and other organic material - above and below ground. Simpson joined this work in 2010. She contributed specialized expertise in nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to the mix. NMR allows researchers to scan every type of organic material in soil, molecule by molecule."

"...As global temperatures rise, though, the organic matter in forests appears to break down more quickly, accelerating the release of carbon into the atmosphere.
This surprising conclusion comes out of a long-term study that was intended to find means to mitigate global warming, not exacerbate it."

"I want to emphasize that this was just one forest. We don't know if this is a global phenomenon," she says.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago
ECMWF analysis clearly shows frontal nature, but warm-seclusion structure later could lead to subtropical features.
Storm # 3: Rainfall last hour .06" Storm Total now 1.98" and still a chance of more showers.
Portlight's Paul Timmons to serve as Red Cross Disability Integration Coordinator


congrats to paul...this is well deserved and needed
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds
and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern
subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brennan


Added:


on the local front today is the first sunny day of the new year....typical el pso rainfall in january is .0.07 inches......so far this month we are at .33 with more rain expected tonight and the rest of the week
79. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 072025
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds
and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern
subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Hoping we can get snow up here in upstate SC but the models don't seem to be very promising. Just too warm with this el-nino setup!! I am very happy for California getting all the rain though! Now that storm off shore near Bermuda looks impressive for this time of year!

Eric
Hard to beleive that there has been not one but two tropical depressions in the central pacific in winter already. I imagine that this year will be the year to have the first cycle through of names in the CPAC since the names came out back in the 80's.
Also if this was any other winter this storm in the Atlantic would most likely dump a a large amount of snow on the NE.
Eric Blake who works for the NHC..

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12
Storm-force winds noted by ASCAT in association with the non-tropical low in the W Atlc-- fairly rare
NHC Atlantic Ops %u200F@NHC_Atlantic 1m1 minute ago
NHC has issued a special tropical weather outlook for the non-tropical low SW of Bermuda.

There is even a faint connection of water vapor between "Pali" in the C-Pac and our cyclonic AOI in the Atlantic.
Don't stare at it... You'll get sick pretty fast :-)

You're looking at 01C/Pali, by the way.
al Weather Outlook Text Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds
and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern
subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brennan
A little wet snow in the last shower. My elevation is 3325 feet. I think # 3 is just about over as most activity is south and east of Soo Cal.
The Atlantic: "The central pacific has a early season storm? I want one too!"
Quoting 86. 999Ai2016:

Don't stare at it... You'll get sick pretty fast :-)

You're looking at 01C/Pali, by the way.


Oh Pali of mine!
92. SLU
93. SLU
Remember these two tweets?

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jan 3
December '15 had the record warmest SSTs by ~2 standard deviations in the W Atlc & Gulf of Mexico- amazing!

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jan 3
Lots of psbl energy for eastern winter storms w/incredibly warm wrn Atlantic Dec. waters- creams old record by 1.5C!
rarely gets this good for surfing cocoa bch florida
Thanks Mr. Henson; fascinating start to 2016 in terms of tropical or oceanic lows in the case of the Atlantic storm: here are the current SST's in the West Atlantic, and relative position of the Gulf Stream which has jutted out quite a bit from the eastern seaboard the past few months, in case anyone was wondering:






if that atlantic comma of doom were about 400 miles west it would look like SS93 heading straight at eastern seaboard! I wonder if this pattern can setup btw now and end of winter to generate a doozy snowstorm for the SE coastal region?
If we get a minimal hurricane in January the site would shut down from all the pressure on the server xD.
Nice live webcam pic of Half Dome in snow covered Yosemite!

And one more!

looks as if another potential storm is forming in the gulf
Latest NMME


Warm Atlantic JJA




Wet East Coast






Equals ?????
Quoting 85. barbamz:


There is even a faint connection of water vapor between "Pali" in the C-Pac and our cyclonic AOI in the Atlantic.

That's the El Nino jet.
Here's the link if anyone wants to check out more.

Link
Quoting 105. BayFog:


That's the El Nino jet.


Don't know if I want that Pali of mine up in California melting all the nice snow?
Quoting 55. Patrap:

CP902016 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop



Hot tower. Typically precedes intensification.
Quoting 107. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Don't know if I want that Pali of mine up in California melting all the nice snow?

Wouldn't be too bad right now. Fill up the reservoirs with epic runoff, then follow it with some lower snow levels at the end of the event to pile up the snow again.
TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM
PALI.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB TO 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO. BASED ON
THE IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN
SSMIS PASS AT 1733 UTC.

T.C.F.W.
01C/TS/P/CX
TPPZ01 PGTW 072153

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01C (PALI)

B. 07/2031Z

C. 4.53N

D. 171.26W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
Quoting 112. ACSeattle:


The science says that there is no "solution" in the sense in which that word is usually understood. At this point there is nothing that can or will be done that will make everything hunky-dory. AGW disasters cannot and will not be avoided. At this point, the best case scenario is to restructure so as to avoid catastrophe, including restructuring our ways of thinking.
pretty much adapt or die simple
December CO2 401.85ppm


High-res. CO2 concentration record 650,000-800,000 years ago

NatureDieter Lethi et al | Published in Nature, Vol. 453, pp. 379-382, 15 May 2008.

ABSTRACT Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years. Here we present results of the lowest 200m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present.

Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172-300 p.p.m.v.

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination

A record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, obtained from the Dome Concordia, Antarctica, ice core, reveals that an increase of 76 parts per million by volume occurred over a period of 6000 years in four clearly distinguishable intervals.

The close correlation between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature indicates that the Southern Ocean played an important role in causing the CO2 increase. However, the similarity of changes in CO2 concentration and variations of atmospheric methane concentration suggests that processes in the tropics and in the Northern Hemisphere, where the main sources for methane are located, also had substantial effects on atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Quoting 112. ACSeattle:


The science says that there is no "solution" in the sense in which that word is usually understood. At this point there is nothing that can or will be done that will make everything hunky-dory. AGW disasters cannot and will not be avoided. At this point, the best case scenario is to restructure so as to avoid catastrophe, including restructuring our ways of thinking.


There are definitely actions that can be taken now to avoid further warming. If that wasn't the case, tons of world leaders wouldn't have met in Paris recently to come up with an agreement.
Quoting 118. tampabaymatt:



There are definitely actions that can be taken now to avoid further warming. If that wasn't the case, tons of world leaders wouldn't have met in Paris recently to come up with an agreement.
well they best hasten the pace time is running short
Quoting 103. nrtiwlnvragn:

Latest NMME


Warm Atlantic JJA




Wet East Coast






Equals ?????
AMO still negative :(
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 31m31 minutes ago
A small RMW can confine any convective heating that occurs, facilitating (sub)trop transition, but hard to predict.
My carbon footprint here is offset by my solar and lithium batt powered Lawn care B & D products.


Reducing ones own Carbon footprint is easy when applied logically.



It seems at this point models are kinda struggling with Pali's future track/intensity. Almost none of them push it to strong cyclone status though. Consensus revolves around a sustained medium-strength tropical storm. Well, we'll see. It's still strenghtening in the mean time.
Link
Very Impressive Looking.
AMO still negative :(

Explain what that means in relation to hurricanes.
Pali

Looks like August 10th more than Jan 7th Gro.

Even with the occluded fronts and all.


: )

Quoting 129. Patrap:

Looks like August 10th more than Jan 7th Gro.





I had to check the calendar. Actually, a few models predicted this a number of days ago. Should be an interesting year.
Quoting 122. Patrap:

My carbon footprint here is offset by my solar and lithium batt powered Lawn care B & D products.


Reducing ones own Carbon footprint is easy when applied logically.





Yeh and not to mention, that weedwacker would probably be funner, easier to use and require much less fuss and maintenance over it's lifespan! Then one could charge it with a solar PV system, which continue to drop in price, and are already a wise investment considering the current rates charged by many US electric utilities.
Quoting 130. Grothar:



I had to check the calendar. Actually, a few models predicted this a number of days ago. Should be an interesting year.


2016 will deliver the pain, most likely in numerous Basins.

My lawn has never looked like March 17th, on Jan 7th.

Ever.

(Best NPR/PBS voice)
...Good times,

Good times,
Quoting 128. Grothar:



Impressive.
Quoting 125. washingtonian115:

AMO still negative :(

Explain what that means in relation to hurricanes.
Less hurricane activity.
I'm looking forward to a HH flight (if one is ever despatched) before the storm leaves the east coast vicinity.
Quoting 135. washingtonian115:

I'm looking forward to a HH flight (if one is ever despatched) before the storm leaves the east coast vicinity.
Yea, would be neat to get some statistics on the storm, it will meander around the Atlantic for many days.
If we can't have a interesting winter might as well have a early start to hurricane season.
It would be unusual enough if we got a Subtropical Storm out of this. But could it be a HURRICANE?
Quoting 138. washingtonian115:

If we can't have a interesting winter might as well have a early start to hurricane season.


Don't give up hope, winter isn't over yet. We were in Hamburg Germany 6,0 degrees Celsius warmer in December than the baseline 1960 - 1990 period and nevertheless it is snowing right now tonight:



It will probably melt tomorrow, but the weather can change pretty quick in winter.
Quoting 81. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Hoping we can get snow up here in upstate SC but the models don't seem to be very promising. Just too warm with this el-nino setup!! I am very happy for California getting all the rain though! Now that storm off shore near Bermuda looks impressive for this time of year!

Eric


Most of winter remains ahead of us.
GFS 18z fun. Very heavy snow stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Now to see if we can get this within 3 days ;)



Quoting 76. nrtiwlnvragn:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds
and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern
subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brennan


Added:




that is a ridiculous shaded area they must have used an entire yellow crayon
Quoting 142. Drakoen:

GFS 18z fun. Very heavy snow stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Now to see if we can get this within 3 days ;)






Eh...great. I'm supposed to go back to school on the 18th, really don't want traffic woes. If that got pushed forward by two days, I'd be ecstatic.
Quoting 142. Drakoen:

GFS 18z fun. Very heavy snow stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Now to see if we can get this within 3 days ;)




You and I both know it won't be there.Its 10 days out and knowing the GFS history.....
Quoting 116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pretty much adapt or die simple


Probably more like die and adapt.

Link
Quoting 122. Patrap:

My carbon footprint here is offset by my solar and lithium batt powered Lawn care B & D products.


Reducing ones own Carbon footprint is easy when applied logically.






Even better if you really really really are trying to reduce carbon footprint:





Still getting occasional showers with Storm # 3 running NW to SE

San Diego Radar
Link

Storm 1= 0.01
Storm 2= 2.13
Storm 3= 2.04 and still counting
Quoting 142. Drakoen:

GFS 18z fun. Very heavy snow stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Now to see if we can get this within 3 days ;)




The CWG had a great saying for forecasts 10 days out, "If it's beyond a week, it reeks".
As someone who has bought her tickets to the playoff game for the Panthers vs Seattle/Minn this is not looking good to stand in heavy rain..

However the runs have been flipping with it showing rain/snow or not showing nothing at all..So I'm going with the GFS being far out and hopefully it drops it..

Quoting 142. Drakoen:

GFS 18z fun. Very heavy snow stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Now to see if we can get this within 3 days ;)







Quoting 151. ncstorm:

As someone who has bought her tickets to the playoff game for the Panthers vs Seattle/Minn this is not looking good to stand in heavy rain..

However the runs have been flipping with it showing rain/snow or not showing nothing at all..So I'm going with the GFS being far out and hopefully it drops it..




Better than the Seattle vs Minn game on Sunday with a high of 1-3 forecast.
OH MY GOD!!!!!!!!! Are we really talking about a possible tropical/Subtropical system for the Atlantic this is really freaking awesome

Subtropical/tropical storm Alex in January what a hell of a way to kick off the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Also would this make the earliest forming system record
And no Zeta (05-06) would not count as it was considered the latest forming and was the last storm for 2005 season
157. elioe
Quoting 156. wunderkidcayman:

Also would this make the earliest forming system record

No it wouldn't.
Hurricane #1, 1938
Good catch elioe. I didn't know about that one.
Storm # 3 previous total was 2.04", I have received .16 rain the last hour, total is now 2.20". 1.24" with trof/front passage and .96 in showers since 8pm last night and see snow on the hillside across the valley probably about 500 feet higher than my abode. This is the storm that keeps giving! I will gladly take more. I thought it was done hours ago.
All this time I didn't know that we could set our own time zone (in terms of seeing when a comment was posted) All this time it read UTC and thought it was automatically set.
Hi, everyone.

I know everybody's having a little fun with that sub-tropical critter (future TS Alex) in the Atlantic, but what about SE Texas's potential WX troubles on Friday? Some of us might be waking up in the dark early Saturday morning.


Hurricane-ish

Quoting 162. BaltimoreBrian:

Hurricane-ish


Euro was the first to pick it up.Actually it has a pretty nice tightly wound up system on the most recent run that was posted a page back.If we get a hurricane I think the blog will pretty much go nuts.As to whether that will be a opening to a pretty interesting hurricane season is yet to be seen........Leap years are pretty harsh to the U.S.
I see 20" near Nathan.

Quoting 161. pureet1948:

Hi, everyone.

I know everybody's having a little fun with that sub-tropical critter (future TS Alex) in the Atlantic, but what about SE Texas's potential WX troubles on Friday? Some of us might be waking up in the dark early Saturday morning.





I hear Flashlights work well in the dark
2015 is the record hottest calendar year in Hong Kong.

Link
Anything is possible really, I mean Joaquin originated from an upper level low, and with how models are depicting the Atlantic Storm's future strength, it will be interesting to see.
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

I see 20" near Nathan.




More eye candy for me...16-18" here
Quoting 165. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I hear Flashlights work well in the dark


You don't see this as a major wx event for SE texas, then, HurricaneHunterJoe?
The good thing though is that the Ohio Valley Cutter Storm this weekend, will usher in more cold air for next week.
Article: 2015's key climate science research advances (from http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/) : Link
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

I see 20" near Nathan.




That's very bad timing and I doubt it'll give me any school off. >.< Mom is trying to figure out how to get me back to school, and it looks as if we might be driving the 800 miles. My uncle was originally going to pick me up from Baltimore, but the Navy changed his schedule and now he can't. :/

The 18th is a holiday and that's when I was planning on moving back in, dorms open the 17th, I believe. Bad storm.

I love snow, but I hate traffic nightmares.
Quoting 153. Astrometeor:



Better than the Seattle vs Minn game on Sunday with a high of 1-3 forecast.


Hey we can take it around here. I'll be there, in 4 layers and pockets full of heater packs.

Link
From the GOES satellite, latest picture available. Infrared.
Quoting 161. pureet1948:

Hi, everyone.

I know everybody's having a little fun with that sub-tropical critter (future TS Alex) in the Atlantic, but what about SE Texas's potential WX troubles on Friday? Some of us might be waking up in the dark early Saturday morning.





I wake up in the dark every morning. I find it difficult to sleep with the lights on and it doesn't get day light until 8 am
Quoting 176. Qazulight:



I wake up in the dark every morning. I find it difficult to sleep with the lights on and it doesn't get day light until 8 am



What I'm trying to say is that many people around the Houston area might wake up to a day without electricity due to Friday/Saturday's weather. We are under a marginal risk for severe weather. In Houston the reality is, little chance, BIG thunderstorms!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
658 PM PST THU JAN 7 2016

NVZ002-003-080430-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...
VERDI...GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY
658 PM PST THU JAN 7 2016

...PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE TAHOE
EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAS DEPOSITED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE
MINDEN AND GARDNERVILLE AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE NEAR GENOA.
THIS SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
ON LAKE TAHOE SUBSIDE.
Drumroll please................................. It appears Storm # 3 is over down here in Soo Cal............need to add another .02" for a total of 2.22".

Storm 1 - 0.01
Storm 2 - 2.13
Storm 3 - 2.22

Total - 4.36 A very nice total for 4 days in Soo Cal and just under half a years for San Diego. No major problems in my neck of the woods flooding wise. Will have to see if we get a break or more storms pile on.
Take a look on this page for up to date weather pictures from St Barths... could be interesting later in the year...

St Barts weather
TS Pali in the Central Pacific, from the lastest warning (number 3, 01/08-0400Z) issued by the JTWC :

Link
Quoting 177. pureet1948:




What I'm trying to say is that many people around the Houston area might wake up to a day without electricity due to Friday/Saturday's weather. We are under a marginal risk for severe weather. In Houston the reality is, little chance, BIG thunderstorms!


You're funny man....in a stormy kind of way......
Quoting 159. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm # 3 previous total was 2.04", I have received .16 rain the last hour, total is now 2.20". 1.24" with trof/front passage and .96 in showers since 8pm last night and see snow on the hillside across the valley probably about 500 feet higher than my abode. This is the storm that keeps giving! I will gladly take more. I thought it was done hours ago.


That's awesome, that's a decent fraction of the yearly averages in a lot of southwest CA.
With the NAO and AO trending down and models looking increasingly stormier and wetter here in FL with time, where is Scott?
Quoting 179. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Drumroll please................................. It appears Storm # 3 is over down here in Soo Cal............need to add another .02" for a total of 2.22".

Storm 1 - 0.01
Storm 2 - 2.13
Storm 3 - 2.22

Total - 4.36 A very nice total for 4 days in Soo Cal and just under half a years for San Diego. No major problems in my neck of the woods flooding wise. Will have to see if we get a break or more storms pile on.


You got a whole lot more down there than I did here. Indian Hills PWS had 2.26" and CoCoRaHS around the corner had 2.65" for all three storms...
I think our Atlantic AOI is getting better organized. What do you think guys.
TS Pali, Central Pacific. The storm is now slowly intensifying.

Link
Link
Quoting 177. pureet1948:




What I'm trying to say is that many people around the Houston area might wake up to a day without electricity due to Friday/Saturday's weather. We are under a marginal risk for severe weather. In Houston the reality is, little chance, BIG thunderstorms!


It is highly unlikely that you will have enough Sefer weather to overwhelm the repair crews. Even a serious of sever, but scattered thunder storms might cause power outages, but will not overwhelm the repair crews.

When you get sever weather, sustained over time and wide spread, then the repair crews are unable to respond and must triage the outages restoring power to critical infrastructure first, I.e trunk power lines, I think they are called feeder lines, then distribution lines.

Most areas with high population density have dual feeds, this both provides for redundancy in case of failures, and a way to switch around and allow maintance without putting customers in a long outage. Because of this, often, even in a very sever weather event, like a strong toranado that takes out significant amounts of feeder, or trunk lines, the power can be restored relatively quickly.

The problems occur when the weather event is both wide spread and long lasting. You get two problems, one the power crews are over whelmed and the logistics of moving crews from other places simply requires time. The other is that a wide spread and long duration weather event takes out the dual feeds at the same time.

So SOME sever weather might cause localized power outages, but even with an outage, the repair crews can get the power on relatively quickly.

The last years of my fathers life he was dependent on oxygen. He lived at the end of the power grid in Deep East Texas. (Toledo Bend, unlike Houston even a bad day at Toledo Bend is a good day.) Except for Hirricane Rita, he had no need of generators as he kept several hours of compressed oxygen on hand. So, my guess, in Houston, even if you are completely dependent on power for the very air you breathe, unless the weather is all three of these thing: Sever, Widespread, and of long duration, you have nothing to worry about. (Other than the fact that if you go to bed in Houston tonight, it is highly likely that you will wake up in Houston tommorow, and I suppose that by itself is a tragedy.)
Quoting 188. Qazulight:



It is highly unlikely that you will have enough Sefer weather to overwhelm the repair crews. Even a serious of sever, but scattered thunder storms might cause power outages, but will not overwhelm the repair crews.

When you get sever weather, sustained over time and wide spread, then the repair crews are unable to respond and must triage the outages restoring power to critical infrastructure first, I.e trunk power lines, I think they are called feeder lines, then distribution lines.

Most areas with high population density have dual feeds, this both provides for redundancy in case of failures, and a way to switch around and allow maintance without putting customers in a long outage. Because of this, often, even in a very sever weather event, like a strong toranado that takes out significant amounts of feeder, or trunk lines, the power can be restored relatively quickly.

The problems occur when the weather event is both wide spread and long lasting. You get two problems, one the power crews are over whelmed and the logistics of moving crews from other places simply requires time. The other is that a wide spread and long duration weather event takes out the dual feeds at the same time.

So SOME sever weather might cause localized power outages, but even with an outage, the repair crews can get the power on relatively quickly.

The last years of my fathers life he was dependent on oxygen. He lived at the end of the power grid in Deep East Texas. (Toledo Bend, unlike Houston even a bad day at Toledo Bend is a good day.) Except for Hirricane Rita, he had no need of generators as he kept several hours of compressed oxygen on hand. So, my guess, in Houston, even if you are completely dependent on power for the very air you breathe, unless the weather is all three of these thing: Sever, Widespread, and of long duration, you have nothing to worry about. (Other than the fact that if you go to bed in Houston tonight, it is highly likely that you will wake up in Houston tommorow, and I suppose that by itself is a tragedy.)


FWIW none of the forecast models seem to be in love with drowning Houston in a sea of thunderstorms






The mesocale models seem to put all the severe weather to the east of Houston. I don't know what to make of the GFS, though. What's it saying?
Quoting 186. Andrebrooks:

I think our Atlantic AOI is getting better organized. What do you think guys.



Can I fly my Cessna plane through it?
TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016

PALI REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM ALL SITES. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF
PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS DIVERGE AT THAT POINT
WITH MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLOW-MOVING AND CURVING WEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST AND
OTHERS KEEPING IT MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST. I HAVE KEPT PALI ON A
FISHHOOK-SHAPED TRACK...TURNING SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ANY CASE FORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE
SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS.


THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FOR 36 HOURS...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING. DESPITE THE
SEASON...
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT
IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.

(Forecaster Donaldson)
Quoting 179. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Drumroll please................................. It appears Storm # 3 is over down here in Soo Cal............need to add another .02" for a total of 2.22".

Storm 1 - 0.01
Storm 2 - 2.13
Storm 3 - 2.22

Total - 4.36 A very nice total for 4 days in Soo Cal and just under half a years for San Diego. No major problems in my neck of the woods flooding wise. Will have to see if we get a break or more storms pile on.

Total for the period at my house 0.46 inches melted snow. USGS gage in Tahoe City measured 0.79 total. Forecast calls for little storms every other day for the next week.
On track for a decent snowpack this season. Statewide, CA showing 109% normal for this date.
CA Snow Water Equivalents (map)
Also on track as a percentage of April 1 average snow water content (April 1 recognized as the "end" of the snow season).
CA Snow Water Content, represented graphically
UK floods again...

Express.co.uk, January 8, 2016:

"Downpours have resulted in flood warnings across Inverurie and Kintore with extreme weather battering the Scottish county. Roads have been closed with trains and flights cancelled as people flee their homes for their own safety. Peter Summers, who was in Inverurie, told Express.co.uk the flooding could get "incredibly bad" if the deluge continues. He added: "People have been evacuating their homes and sandbags have been laid. You can see a lot people are concerned." Heavy rain has seen further flooding in large swathes of Scotland as flights were unable to arrive at Aberdeen Airport after "unprecedented rainfall" damaged a section of tarmac on the runway. Sid Connor, 18, who lives in Alford, Aberdeenshire, said the river had "swelled to four times its size". He added: "We went to Inverurie today and the flooding was so bad we were lucky to make it back from there. "Puddles were about 30m long in the village and the local school will not be open tomorrow because of the floods." The severe flood warning means there is a "danger to life" in the region. Residents in Aberdeen's Grandholm area were urged to leave their homes before the River Don burst its banks. Community councils in Inverurie and Kintore have called for volunteers as the incessant rain continues to blight the area. Scotland's Deputy First Minister John Swinney said: "The impact of this latest round of flooding is causing transport difficulties and putting properties at risk of flooding. "The Scottish Government's resilience committee is monitoring the situation very closely and we have discussed the unfolding events and work to mitigate the impacts and ensure the safety of people in local communities." Rest centres have been set up across the region for people forced to leave their homes and more than 20 schools have been closed. The emergency services were called in to help pupils in Brechin return home from classes on Thursday."

Link
Might want to move to a place that does't experience severe weather.
Might try the 4th rock from the sun.
I here it hardly ever rains and not a lot of snow either.


Quoting 161. pureet1948:

Hi, everyone.

I know everybody's having a little fun with that sub-tropical critter (future TS Alex) in the Atlantic, but what about SE Texas's potential WX troubles on Friday? Some of us might be waking up in the dark early Saturday morning.



Quoting 196. swflurker:

Might want to move to a place that does't experience severe weather.
Might try the 4th rock from the sun.
I here it hardly ever rains and not a lot of snow either.





Well, every corner of the world experiences severe weather at one time or another. It's just that Mother Nature loves to pick on Houston. Why? Who knows?
Quoting 186. Andrebrooks:

I think our Atlantic AOI is getting better organized. What do you think guys.

ABSOLUTELY, IT SEEMS LIKE 'ALEX' IS WELL ON THE WAY INDEED ACCORDING TO PREDICITONS...HOWEVER, COME WHAT MAY-I PRAY THAT GOD WILL BE WITH US ALL IN THIS NEW YEAR & GRANT US AN UPCOMING 2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON THAT IS NOT DESTRUCTIVE IN THE LEAST.

BLESSINGS TO ALL!
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

I see 20" near Nathan.




At 240 hours? I see...nothing.

If I had a dollar for every snow storm that long range model predicted why I'd have...about ten or twnety buck so far this season. :D
Quoting 196. swflurker:

Might want to move to a place that does't experience severe weather.
Might try the 4th rock from the sun.
I here it hardly ever rains and not a lot of snow either.




Indeed, it never rains on Mars, there's no liquid water at or above the surface. There is some carbon dioxide snow, and a little water ice snow, sometimes. You might not enjoy the dust storms, though :-) Link
Quoting 200. 999Ai2016:



It never rains on Mars, there's no liquid water at or above the surface. There is some carbon dioxide snow, and a little water ice snow, sometimes. You might not enjoy the dust storms, though :-) Link


We get dust storms here in H-town too, unfortunately.
You worry about losing your electric every time a storm may affect your area.
Not sure why, but you live in an area where you shouldn't freeze or die from heat stroke.
Do you need electric to power some kind of life support device?
If so, my apologizes, if not, invest in some type of back up power if you can afford it.
If not, battery powered emergency lighting is less than $200 for areas of concern.

Quoting 197. pureet1948:




Well, every corner of the world experiences severe weather at one time or another. It's just that Mother Nature loves to pick on Houston. Why? Who knows?
I am just quoting a Finnish weather blog here but it seems like yesterday had the 2nd coldest mean temperature since 1987 in Helsinki with -8.9F. The Baltic sea is still mostly ice-free so I think it's quite remarkable.
Just AMAZING Rain and Snow for Soo Cal, from Monday til 8pm tonight and since Soo Cal did not really get anything much from the first storm Monday..........all the more AMAZING! Like 3 months worth of rain and in a few cases 6 months worth.....WOW! And NO MAJOR FLOOD ISSUES!



PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
803 PM PST THURSDAY JAN 07 2016


RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 72-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________803 PM THURSDAY_________________________

.REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS

LOCATION SNOWFALL(IN)

SNOW SUMMIT 30
MOUNT SAN JACINTO 30
BIG BEAR LAKE 24-30
BIG BEAR CITY 13-24
GREEN VALLEY LAKE 12-24
MT BALDY 18
FERN VALLEY 15-18
PINE COVE 15-18
FAWNSKIN 17
WRIGHTWOOD 8-17
MT. LAGUNA 12-15
IDYLLWILD 13
BLUE JAY 12
ARROWBEAR LAKE 11-12
FOREST FALLS 11
RUNNING SPRINGS 10
ANGELUS OAKS 10
LAKE ARROWHEAD 6-10
BARTON FLATS 9
MT BALDY VILLAGE 8
OAK GLEN 8
PALOMAR MT. 7
CRESTLINE 7
GARNER VALEY 3
BIRCH HILL 3
PINE VALLEY 1
PHELAN 1
DESCANSO T


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

1. MT. WOODSON 7.46 1720
2. LYTLE CREEK RAWS 6.98 2790
3. PINE HILLS FS 6.43 3645
4. POWAY NORTH 6.31 750
5. POWAY 5.90 440
6. PINE HILLS RAWS 5.89 3600
7. JULIAN RAWS 5.88 4240
8. HENSHAW DAM 5.61 2750
9. UPPER SILVERADO CYN 5.55 2880
10.LAKE CUYAMACA 5.51 4560

All the rest

Link
It's getting interesting: current sat.images and intensity estimates indicate weakening of TS Pali. However, the size of the cloud formation, as well as the appearance of the curved band remain impressive. It's 50/50 now. Either the storm gives up and dissipate quite rapidly, or it can behave according to official forecasts, and remain near its current intensity, waiting for the final blow from adverse environmental conditions within a few days, or (less likely) a favorable push towards more intensification instead.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #37
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA, CATEGORY TWO (05F)
18:00 PM FST January 8 2016
========================
East Of Vanuatu islands
West of Fiji

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ula. Category Two (985 hPa) located at 18.4S 174.0E has to minute sustained winds of 50 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral infrared/visible imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection has increased with primary bands wrapping around low level circulation center. Cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization remains good. Outflow good to the south. Sea surface temperature around 28C. System lies under an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. System is tracking northwest due to the sub-tropical ridge located to the south. Dvorak analysis based on 0.7 wrap yields DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 18.5S 173.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 18.8S 172.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.8S 170.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Quoting 206. 999Ai2016:




Lil Ula and Big Pali......LOL
Quoting 208. HurricaneHunterJoe :

Lil Ula and Big Pali......LOL

Exactly! But Ula's apparently a long-lived angry beast while Pali is (so far) quite a slow-moving hesitating foe...
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE PALI (CP012016)
11:00 PM HST January 7 2016
================================
Southwest Of Johnston Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Pali (997 hPa) located at 5.9N 171.8W or 660 NM south southwest of Johnston Island has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 6.9N 172.4W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 7.7N 173.4W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 8.3N 174.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 8.3N 175.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
After a brief decline this afternoon...deep convection is increasing once again this evening near the core of Pali. Deep convection has been fairly steady a couple hundred miles to the east...within an area that is the eastern end of a near equatorial surface trough that runs through the tropical cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO...SAB...and JTWC all came in at 3.0/45 kt...and the current intensity will be held at 45 kt. Some adjustments were made to the wind and seas radii based on recent scatterometer and altimeter data.

Pali is moving toward the northwest...325 degrees...at 7 kt in an area of rather weak steering flow. The tropical cyclone remains embedded within a nearly west to east oriented...low latitude trough. The trough is the product of anomalously strong...low level westerly winds being driven in the southern hemisphere and easterly winds created by a deep ridge roughly centered along 20.0N. The somewhat tightly clustered dynamical guidance shows a similar motion tonight...followed by a gradual turn toward the west northwest with a decrease in forward motion on Friday through Saturday as the tropical cyclone remains under the influence of the low latitude trough. Model spread increases greatly on Sunday and beyond...though all except the ECMWF show a sharp equatorward turn back into the trough. The forecast track is close to the prior advisory and is roughly down the middle of the guidance envelope...though a bit slower in the equatorward turn on days four and five.

Intensity forecast was unchanged from the last advisory. Being in the deep tropics...ocean temperatures are sufficiently warm for additional intensification. However...CIMSS and SHIPS estimate easterly vertical wind shear of around 25 kt...and a 0315 UTC SSMIS pass hinted at some westward tilt with height to the cyclone. Continued interaction with the low level trough and...to some degree...vertical wind shear are expected to limit the potential for intensification during the next few days. The intensity forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope...which contains steady and considerable spread through day five.


lol gone for a week and come back to this...
yes indeed............................................ ................................
Quoting 213. LargoFl:

yes indeed............................................ ................................


All the ingredients are there. -AO/-NAO and nice blocking. Should be an interesting few weeks for the east coast.


(The series of maps below show the 500 hPa height field along with the corresponding anomalies (colored) from the 22 year climatology (1979-2000) for the current 00Z GFS forecast verifying at the indicated time. At the top of each panel the blocking index strength is shown in units of (m/deg lat).)
Timeline keeps backing up.

Quoting 213. LargoFl:

yes indeed............................................ ................................
Stage is set for what could be a Major Storm across the SE US later next week. We will need to watch the evaluation of this closely as Euro and GFS are keying in on a very strong storm system across the Gulf next Friday into Saturday. This system could be severe one across FL.

Looks like mild weather in Chicago and Houston. Today.
Quoting 221. ChiThom:

Looks like mild weather in Chicago and Houston. Today.


I thought Houston was due to be wiped off the map sometime this month?
Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:



I thought Houston was due to be wiped off the map sometime this month?

Happy to report all systems nominal in Houston, 54F, foggy and a little rain later. Nothing to see here...
It rained softly all night, 0.2" and still raining at about 40 F on Jan. 8! It's been about 40 for a couple of days, and looks to stay that way for a couple more days before freezing weather returns; the ice skating rinks that have been prepared around town (and nearby towns) are woefully ice-free. Winter sports are a bust so far. Norway and Finland and Siberia got all the cold weather this week, so it seems.
The ? after the 40 is a degree symbol. I don't understand why this weather blog can't reproduce the degree symbol that I typed. ? :-( Not uniformly, anyway.
test°
Quoting 225. ChiThom:

The ? after the 40� is a degree symbol. I don't understand why this weather blog can't reproduce the degree symbol that I typed. ? :-( Not uniformly, anyway.
Because the software here isn't able to understand HTML special characters if the original post is either edited or quoted. It therefore replaces the degree sign with the "?" symbol. It has been this way since before I was a member, which is now going on eleven years. It's probably not moving up on the to-do list of things to fix. :-)
Hmmm...it seems to work if I don't try to edit or modify the comment. ° ° °°°°
Had to fill my pool up this morning. Didn't think I'd have to do that this winter with El Niño in place.
Quoting 219. HaoleboySurfEC:

Timeline keeps backing up.


There's always a Bad Moon Rising at 276 hours...or over Houston.
Quoting 223. Greg01:


Happy to report all systems nominal in Houston, 54F, foggy and a little rain later. Nothing to see here...
I'm a little confused about the "Slight" risk for Houston that the SPC is seeing. There's some snow showers up in the Panhandle along with a not very strong cold/stationary front. There's not much else in the way of sensible weather in front of or behind the front. It's 55 and foggy here as well, so maybe this threat is coming from the combination of relatively warmer Gulf air and the front making its way through Houston, but this doesn't look like the kind of setup that normally even causes much in the way of thunderstorms, let alone anything severe. There are two places in the US that consistently fool me - coastal TX and, of course, Florida - so we'll see if anything really does develop. There is a new to me term in the SPC discussion though - basal shortwave. Given my background in medicine, my mind read it as basal metabolism. I had to go back and read it again when I realized that couldn't be right. :-)
Good Morning Folks; the Atlantic low pressure system and TC Pali:





Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:



I thought Houston was due to be wiped off the map sometime this month?
Houston takes the place of Tampa when it's not hurricane season. By about the middle of May, Tampa will have resumed its rightful place at the top of the flattening list.
Quoting 229. Bucsboltsfan:

Had to fill my pool up this morning. Didn't think I'd have to do that this winter with El Niño in place.




that's because el nino doesn't read the blogs or remember what he did in the past.....just a spoiled baby...does what he wants...when he wants....ask those in the northwest that were expecting drought conditions this winter
Quoting 234. ricderr:





that's because el nino doesn't read the blogs or remember what he did in the past.....just a spoiled baby...does what he wants...when he wants....ask those in the northwest that were expecting drought conditions this winter



Yep...
Storms are coming.

And Pali's "look" and latest advisory: looks to me like an occluded eye (that was starting to form earlier) may have slipped under the convective burst in the last few frames.


WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (PALI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 7.0N 171.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 171.9W
SHIPS text keeps the Atlantic AOI as extratropical.
Quoting 229. Bucsboltsfan:

Had to fill my pool up this morning. Didn't think I'd have to do that this winter with El Nio in place.


I have had to fill mine twice since October. Prior to that, I hadn't had to fill it in over 2 years. I am getting close to needing to fill it again, but picked up 0.19" last night. With another good chance of rain tomorrow, I will hold off on filling it. My water bill is high enough with the heat and dryness we've had.

I should note that my home faces south, so in the winter, my pool gets zero sunlight due to the change in sun angle. I also have a screen enclosure. As a result, I probably need to fill my pool less than most.
Quoting 219. HaoleboySurfEC:

Timeline keeps backing up.


yeah but for Florida..GFS has been saying stormy around the 17th for many days now,so far its still saying that date then it goes up the east coast..but..still 9-10 days out...sure can change huh.
Quoting 239. tampabaymatt:



I have had to fill mine twice since October. Prior to that, I hadn't had to fill it in over 2 years. I am getting close to needing to fill it again, but picked up 0.19" last night. With another good chance of rain tomorrow, I will hold off on filling it. My water bill is high enough with the heat and dryness we've had.

I should note that my home faces south, so in the winter, my pool gets zero sunlight due to the change in sun angle. I also have a screen enclosure. As a result, I probably need to fill my pool less than most.


These two rain events over the past week have given me about .3". That's below normal in a non El Niño year. It is suppose to rain again tomorrow but I'm not expecting anything too significant. My pool is too low so I really didn't have a choice.
Before the possible snowstorm on the 17th, the models are showing a potent clipper next week Tuesday and Wednesday that could deliver snow from the Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 219. HaoleboySurfEC:

Timeline keeps backing up.


The blocking pattern was suppose to occur at the beginning of the month...still waiting....
Quoting 241. Bucsboltsfan:



These two rain events over the past week have given me about .3". That's below normal in a non El Niño year. It is suppose to rain again tomorrow but I'm not expecting anything too significant. My pool is too low so I really didn't have a choice.


I'm at 0.31" for January.

Quoting 243. washingtonian115:

The blocking pattern was suppose to occur at the beginning of the month...still waiting....
When i lived in Ohio(Crestline) and Pastor a church there we had our snows come in November, December... and Jan-Mar were flat out cold and raw with snow events almost every 3 days. We lived just outside of the snowbelt area so we were spared the lake effect snows for the most part.  But that was not el-nino winter, especially THIS ONE.   They have yet to have a decent snow there and here it is Jan. 8th.

This is a very strong el nino and it is fighting tooth and nail.  It will take a big PUSH to win out and get snow in the NE and Mid south.......  But it looks to be coming.....   But IT WILL GET HERE I AM AFRAID.
GFS 12z

Wow, very interesting start to the year! Pali's location right near the dead center of the Pacific is oddly amazing to me, don't see them form there too often, but Ekeka and Hali both formed in the same general area, and also very early, in the 1992 season. Not enough analogs to suggest a real correlation, but could it be a foreshadowing to the possible patterns we could see the coming hurricane seasons follow? I think that may be something to monitor for curiosity sake.
Quoting 13. DCSwithunderscores:

MOST POPULOUS CITY IN SOUTH AFRICA - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Johannesburg, South Africa of 38.0 C / 100.4 F was reportedly set on January 7, 2015.

Link


UPDATE: The new record is now being reported as 38.9 C / 102.0 F.

Link
Quoting 247. Drakoen:

GFS 12z


A going away gift eh?
Quoting 240. LargoFl:

yeah but for Florida..GFS has been saying stormy around the 17th for many days now,so far its still saying that date then it goes up the east coast..but..still 9-10 days out...sure can change huh.
What the 06z GFS has been showing is a low that originates near coastal Louisiana on the 15th, then traveling through Alabama and Georgia, and finally exiting North Carolina into the Atlantic on the 17th. The closest it gets to Florida is the Panhandle. The ECMWF completely loses the low by the 17th. Only the CMC is showing a low in the Gulf crossing peninsular Florida during the same time period, something neither of the other major models show. At some point, one of these models will be right just because they continue to show a variety of solutions at a variety of times. As usual, trying to determine which one might be right more than seven days out is hopeless.
PENNSYLVANIA'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - NEW RECORD LATEST 1ST SNOWFALL: Philadelphia hadn't received any snowfall this season as of the morning of January 7. The previous record latest first snowfall of the season there occurred on January 6, in 1995 and in 2002.

Link
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:

A going away gift eh?


Take what you can get. Can see C-1in from this.
Quoting 249. DCSwithunderscores:



UPDATE: The new record is now being reported as 38.9 C / 102.0 F.

Link
Yes, but it still wasn't hot enough to fry an egg on the bonnet of a black Peugeot. :-)

Pretoria hit 42.5 (108.5) as well. Capetown, which is lucky enough to be right on the coast, is only at 73. I'm actually surprised the all-time highs are that relatively low for as far inland as Joberg and Pretoria are located. Los Angeles, for example, has an all-time high of 114.
Quoting 251. sar2401:

What the 06z GFS has been showing is a low that originates near coastal Louisiana on the 15th, then traveling through Alabama and Georgia, and finally exiting North Carolina into the Atlantic on the 17th. The closest it gets to Florida is the Panhandle. The ECMWF completely loses the low by the 17th. Only the CMC is showing a low in the Gulf crossing peninsular Florida during the same time period, something neither of the other major models show. At some point, one of these models will be right just because they continue to show a variety of solutions at a variety of times. As usual, trying to determine which one might be right more than seven days out is hopeless.


The GFS ensembles offer a variety of solutions. Some show a storm up the coast, out to sea, or suppressed. It shouldn't be a surprise to see run to run changes until we get closer to the event. Looking at the 500mb wavelengths, we need strong meridional flow out in the Midwest, strong blocking west of Greenland and north of the Hudson Bay, the 50/50 low near Newfoundland, and the clipper systems preceding the storm to track south to create the most favorable environment for a snowstorm across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
Quoting 252. DCSwithunderscores:

PENNSYLVANIA'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - NEW RECORD LATEST 1ST SNOWFALL: Philadelphia hadn't received any snowfall this season as of the morning of January 7. The previous record latest first snowfall of the season there occurred on January 6, in 1995 and in 2002.

Link
Not much snow forecast for almost in the entire CONUS in the next three days either. The storm producing snow over the upper Great Lakes looks like it will die before getting any further south, at least in terms of snow. My sisters and brothers in Cleveland report not even having to break out a snow shovel yet let alone the trusty snow blower. They have no complaints so far. My sister just moved back there from California after having left when she was a child. She thinks my reports of legendary Cleveland winters are a bunch of hokum. The warm winter so far has been reported to have cost retailers about $550 million in lost sales for winter gear. Maybe they'll start restocking with bathing suits and patio sets soon.

Looking out at the snow here in Sioux Falls. I am thinking their 3 inches is bigger than my 3 inches. It looked like we had 3 inches at 7 am and have had another 1 and half since then.
Quoting 255. Drakoen:



The GFS ensembles offer a variety of solutions. Some show a storm up the coast, out to sea, or suppressed. It shouldn't be a surprise to see run to run changes until we get closer to the event. Looking at the 500mb wavelengths, we need strong meridional flow out in the Midwest, strong blocking west of Greenland and north of the Hudson Bay, the 50/50 low near Newfoundland, and the clipper systems preceding the storm to track south to create the most favorable environment for a snowstorm across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.


You can also throw in the Developmental GFS although not much difference to operational at shorter time frame, but does show differences further out you go.
Quoting 257. Qazulight:

Looking out at the snow here in Sioux Falls. I am thinking their 3 inches is bigger than my 3 inches. It looked like we had 3 inches at 7 am and have had another 1 and half since then.
It's probably a metric thee inches. :-) Snow amounts are even more variable than rain amounts. I had a regulation (then) Weather Bureau snow board (not the kind that goes to ski areas) as a co-op observer. I measured 14 inches one morning when the closest other station had a little over 6 inches. After I sent in my report, the boys at the Weather Bureau telephoned (no email then) and had me do another measurement. It was then up to fifteen inches. This was the day before twitter and instant updates, so it took them a day to get public reports from people near me with even higher amounts.
Quoting 255. Drakoen:



The GFS ensembles offer a variety of solutions. Some show a storm up the coast, out to sea, or suppressed. It shouldn't be a surprise to see run to run changes until we get closer to the event. Looking at the 500mb wavelengths, we need strong meridional flow out in the Midwest, strong blocking west of Greenland and north of the Hudson Bay, the 50/50 low near Newfoundland, and the clipper systems preceding the storm to track south to create the most favorable environment for a snowstorm across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
Indeed, and it's those run to run differences, plus the whole inaccuracy problems the further we get out in time, that makes looking at models 12 or so days out so frustrating. I suspect the GFS is on to something in terms of a southern low moving up the coast for a Nor'easter type storm. It would be a rare winter when that didn't happen at least once. Trying to come up with any kind of an accurate date when that might happen is another matter.


Today's disturbance racing across FL before the next one comes racing in.
Sneaux is of the Devil.

So I avoid it at all cost.

: P
In other news the powerball jack pot is up to 800 million.If one of ya'll won the money what would you do?

For you youngsters out there I wanna tell you to invest in your money it will bring you further than just blowing it all off (ask Mike Tyson).If I won I'll pay off my remaining student dept set my kids up for college and invest the rest of the money.


Corps to open Bonnet Carré Spillway Sunday
6:51 p.m. CST January 7, 2016



NEW ORLEANS -- The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced a scheduled opening of the Bonnet Carré Spillway for 10 a.m. Sunday January 10.

According to the Army Corps, heavy rain in the Mississippi Valley and rising river water states prompted the decision to open the spillway to keep the volume of the Mississippi River at New Orleans from exceeding 1.25 million cubic feet per second (cfs).

Officials say the spillway may be open for several weeks.

The general public is allowed to view the spillway opening from the Project Office, located at 16302 River Road in Norco, Louisiana. Drones and other unmanned aerial systems are not permitted for flight during the opening.

Operation of the structure will relieve pressure on main line levees, maintain river stages, and regulate the flow of the river from the spillway southward. The decision to open Bonnet Carré is the responsibility of Maj. Gen. Michael C. Wehr, commander of the Corps' Mississippi Valley Division in Vicksburg, Miss.

Environmental, hydrologic, structural, and navigational considerations all bear on the decision to open Bonnet Carré. Other factors that affect the decision are the overall condition of the levees and the ability of the river to pass flows, and the effects high water and river currents may have on vessels navigating the river.

The Corps has a detailed environmental monitoring plan in place that will assess water quality, dissolved oxygen, sedimentation, recreation, and natural resources such as the pallid sturgeon, both within the spillway as well as Lake Pontchartrain.

All third party users and grantees should take immediate steps to remove their movable property and protect existing facilities and immovable property within the spillway. In addition, all public access areas within the spillway, including the public boat launches, Lower Guide Levee Road, and the St. Charles Parish Recreation Area near U.S.

Highway 61 will be closed beginning Sunday, Jan 10, 2016 until further notice.

The storm forecast by GEOS-5 for early/middle of next week has moved up a bit. With it's quicker speed it doesn't look quite as drowning/pounding but still like an event..

May get started overnight tonight in West TX. Here's tomorrow morning as it moistens some.


By afternoon it's to AL & over the MS River in the Midwest..


Could be a little severe weather across FL late Saturday.


Here's a close up of the mid Atlantic on Sunday. Looks like some snow on the back side but the initial squall is rain.
Hello there.
---
Telegraph (UK):
Wildfire in Western Australia likened to "napalm bombers", causing catastrophic losses in one small town and threatening several others.
---
Link
Since my B-day is next Friday the 15th, we can't have any Cold nor Winter Precip here that day.

I encourage all Model watchers to lean into the wind on my request.

Thanks a million.

: )
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 258. nrtiwlnvragn:



You can also throw in the Developmental GFS although not much difference to operational at shorter time frame, but does show differences further out you go.


Do you have skill scores to compare the current GFS to the development? The system the developmental GFS is showing is ridiculous.
Quoting 187. 999Ai2016:

TS Pali, Central Pacific. The storm is now slowly intensifying.

Link
Link


Where is all that dry air coming from?
Well, BayFog, I have no idea, but it seems a lot of the moist air surrounding the storm is being sucked from down south. It could further weaken the storm.

... I wouldn't bet on it though.