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Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on February 06, 2012

Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.

What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?

A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."


Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."

I love it!!!
Never say "never" (or, in this case, "don't") ;-)

Interior Alaska just can't get a break, it seems; after a record or near-record cold January, now an invasion of unseasonable warmth:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012


...A WARM-UP WILL PRODUCE ICY ROADS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...

AFTER A RECORD COLD JANUARY...MANY AREAS NOW HAVE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ABOVE ARE COMMON...AND IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS AND WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND
TEMPERATURE ARE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARMER AIR
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLD SOAKED GROUND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF ICE
AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
Neapolitan, went to a superbowl party last nite, had the best Lemon squares I've ever eaten.

Here is my question to you, do you make lemon squares too?
pi r squared. Lemons are round
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
π r squared. Lemons are round.


Guess since your from the keys, she could of made Lime squares!
That sound yummy too!
Some of my friends kids were the drummer corps with madonna at the Superbowl, wow, local kids on the Big screen, I thought it was pretty cool!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Neapolitan, went to a superbowl party last nite, had the best Lemon squares I've ever eaten.

Here is my question to you, do you make lemon squares too?


You causing trouble AGAIN,,,,LOL,,,,,hey brother! Classy Superbowl except for the half time.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Guess since your from the keys, she could of made Lime squares!
That sound yummy too!


Try the dark chocolate dipped frozen Key Lime Pie on a stick. Mmmmmmmm!
Quoting TampaSpin:


You causing trouble AGAIN,,,,LOL,,,,,hey brother! Classy Superbowl except for the half time.


Tim, I was stuck in a trailer from 1100 to 0130 this morning, didn't get to see much!
Things went very well as far as public safety concerns!
"Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate."


Don't agree with that statement.
I still say most of the climate issues are contributed to the destruction of the Amazon forest by Communist Governments!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Tim, I was stuck in a trailer from 1100 to 0130 this morning, didn't get to see much!
Things went very well as far as public safety concerns!



LOL....i knew it was best to keep you LOCKED UP...
It appears that a secondary Low might develop in the BOC over the next few days. The NOGAPS model has been suggesting that possibility!






Activity has increased along the ConUs West Coast! I am expecting a fairly larger one to be coming soon. Just my opinion tho!!!
Agreed, Vancouver Island seems to being pulled one way then sides back the other way on the next quake. Tug of war going on there.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Activity has increased along the ConUs West Coast! I am expecting a fairly larger one to be coming soon. Just my opinion tho!!!

Quoting TampaSpin:
It appears that a secondary Low might develop in the BOC over the next few days. The NOGAPS model has been suggesting that possibility!





i found that possible second storm first, its mine! lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


i found that possible second storm first, its mine! lol


here is NOGAPS loop where i seen it...
Link

:D Might be frontal attached..who knows as of now :D
shows up forming off of S Texas at hour 72...and the site might come up sayin "certificate not trusted" but just continue anyways, iz nothin
Quoting jrweatherman:
"Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate."


Don't agree with that statement.
You're certainly within your rights to disagree with that statement, along with mountains of evidence, thousands of peer-reviewed papers, the opinion of 97% of climatologists, and every major scientific body on the planet. FWIW, though, I tend to agree with it. I also agree with something else Dr. Masters wrote above:

"...there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events."
Quoting SPLbeater:


i found that possible second storm first, its mine! lol


NOPE.....You have apparently not been reading my website....LOL Nice job tho.
black ice is bad hard to see
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOPE.....You have apparently not been reading my website....LOL Nice job tho.


then lets split da credit lol
Quoting islander101010:
black ice is bad hard to see


yes...yes it is.
tropical disturbance.

any chance that this rare tropical activity sneaks up the mid atlantic to meet some cold air and cause a significant snow storm?

Let's hope these are not foreshocks!

Quoting TampaSpin:



Activity has increased along the ConUs West Coast! I am expecting a fairly larger one to be coming soon. Just my opinion tho!!!
Sea Ice Extent curve still holding the same slope.



Here:



Melt season is going to get uuugly if there isn't some positive wobble between now and March.

Starting with 250K less extent isn't going to be a good thing in terms of positive albedo feedback.

There can be a lot of fluctuation in these curves, so maybe it doesn't mean anything, or maybe it's a harbinger of a bad melt season.

The trend in the past has been that the record low mininum deviates from the average minimum by a factor of 2.5 times as much as the record low maximum deviated from the average maximum.

So for example, if 2012 ends up breaking the record low maximum by say, 200k, then it should be possible for breaking the record low minimum by a margin of as much as 500k.

Some parts of the ice aren't that far from last year's september minimums!
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902012.ren

We hardly knew ye....
Quoting TampaSpin:



Activity has increased along the ConUs West Coast! I am expecting a fairly larger one to be coming soon. Just my opinion tho!!!



It IS earthquake weather today!
Quoting TampaSpin:



Activity has increased along the ConUs West Coast! I am expecting a fairly larger one to be coming soon. Just my opinion tho!!!



Seems about right.

In the past 10 years there's been a mega-quake in every quadrant of the ring of Fire except the N. American quadrant, so I guess it seems logical that's where the most stress should be.

In order to dissipate as much energy as an 8.8 quake "slowly" in a less destructive manner, you'd need a 6.0 quake to happen every day for 45 years.
Quoting ianctlr:
tropical disturbance.

any chance that this rare tropical activity sneaks up the mid atlantic to meet some cold air and cause a significant snow storm?



mm may come up the eastern seaboard(MAYBE) n drop some rain, i wouldnt be thinking of snow

GFS brings it up E CONUS with the outer banks getting rain, then out 2 sea

NAM brings it up E CONUS with the eastern half of de carolinas, florida getting rain

NOGAPS takes system SSW lol.
1952 / 2012 both "Water Dragon" years in Chinese astrology. (just sayin')
be back soon
another low in the gulf..
Lows in tropics close to home.....maybe TX could get that drenching storm in time for June, boy would that start the season off with a BANG
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lows in tropics close to home.....maybe TX could get that drenching storm in time for June, boy would that start the season off with a BANG


maybe u git something like TS Hermine in 2010?
Need multiple hits for TX, southern, middle, and upper coasts
"TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY." - wow. That's all I can say bout that. Meanwhile, it's still 45 degrees! C'mon Mr. Sunshine! :(

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Feb 6, 9:35 am CST

Fair

45 °F
(7 °C)
Humidity: 81 %
Wind Speed: N 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.32"
Dewpoint: 39 °F (4 °C)
Wind Chill: 41 °F (5 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
"TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY." - wow. That's all I can say bout that.


Pretty much what the government did for the 1900 storm that wiped out Galveston. US ignored the Cubans. Cubans were better and probably still are with tropical systems.
"Mars 'Super-Drought' May Make Red Planet Too Dry for Alien Life."

Link
Forecasters were overly confident in their primitive technology, which did not yet include satellites or doppler radar. And they were distrustful of Cuban forecasters; before the 1900 storm, U.S. forecasters had a policy of ignoring or downplaying warnings from Cuba, even though the island generally experiences storms well before the U.S.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,184 1442,00.html#ixzz1lcS6JutN
Well the Cuban Meteorologist proved to be right, in 1952... there could be a tropical storm form in February, but is an extremely rare climathological event.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Pretty much what the government did for the 1900 storm that wiped out Galveston. US ignored the Cubans. Cubans were better and probably still are with tropical systems.


Yes I read about that. Just another thing I don't get or know what to say about. Sigh.
Cuba and the US have a Long relationship and share info on Storms. They may not have all the tools we have in their Cane Tool box, but no one prepares there citizenry better than the Cubans.

Nobody.
Good write up, although...

I think it's a complete oxymoron to decide which events are influenced by warming, and which events are not. The realistic fact of the matter is that every single aspect of our 2012 climate is influenced by it. Global warming doesn't affect 1 thing and not the other.

In other words, heat waves, cold outbreaks, precipitation anomolies, snowfall anomolies, jet stream position, AO, NAO, PNA, El Nino, LaNina, Tropical Storms (I could go on forever) all have warming injected into their equations. It leads up to a world-wide domino effect. Even when events/statistics fall within the historical norm, they too have been influenced by warming.

I believe climate/weather should be talked about in this manner, rather than saying this was influenced and that wasn't, because this but not that actually makes no sense at all.
Quoting Patrap:
Cuba and the US have a Long relationship and share info on Storms. They may not have all the tools we have in their Cane Tool box, but no one prepares there citizenry better than the Cubans.

Nobody.


They're the front line of incoming storms to the CONUS
When the 1900 storm moved out into the GOM, the Cubans knew all too well that a full blown hurricane had formed, and was headed for Texas. A message that Galveston.... never receives.
Quoting Patrap:
Cuba and the US have a Long relationship and share info on Storms. They may not have all the tools we have in their Cane Tool box, but no one prepares there citizenry better than the Cubans.

Nobody.

I've heard they just upgraded to Bat Kites this year!
Dr. Masters the rainfall at Key West was 4.56" according to this statement. Even more remarkable!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012


...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTRIBUTES TO RECORD RAINFALL IN KEY
WEST...

RAINFALL ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH TOTALED 4.56 INCHES AT KEY WEST

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD* OF 2.89
INCHES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1872. IN FACT...THIS WILL ALSO GO DOWN AS
THE WETTEST FEBRUARY DAY IN HISTORY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 4.04
INCHES WAS SET ON FEBRUARY 28TH...1954.

THE RAINFALL WAS THE RESULT OF A FEW FACTORS. LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPED A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ON SUNDAY...THIS TROUGH PUSHED
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...THE TROUGH BECAME THE FOCUS POINT FOR A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE KEYS RECEIVED GENEROUS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE IN KEY WEST. NO FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR KEY WEST...BUT A COUPLE
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED CONCERNING MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AROUND THE ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD
MOVED EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...IN INCHES...FOR AVAILABLE STATIONS...

KEY WEST INT`L AIRPORT 4.56
KEY WEST WFO 3.79
KEY LARGO NORTH--HANDAR 2.74
BIG COPPITT KEY--COCORAHS 2.26
CUDJOE KEY--COCORAHS 1.68
CURRY HAMMOCK--COOP 1.50
BIG PINE KEY--HANDAR 1.26
CUDJOE KEY 1.08
MARATHON AIRPORT 1.03

*RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

$$

ROTHWELL
Quoting RitaEvac:
When the 1900 storm moved out into the GOM, the Cubans knew all too well that a full blown hurricane had formed, and was headed for Texas. A message that Galveston.... never receives.


from the south...
53 dead in 6.7 earthquake that leaves the Philippines reeling, as region hit by 6.0 aftershock
Posted on February 6, 2012

February 6, 2012 PHILIPPINES Filipino officials say a strong earthquake has rocked the central Philippines, killing at least 53 people and causing widespread damage and power outages. The U.S. Geological Survey says the 6.8-magnitude quake struck late Monday morning at a depth of 20 kilometers. The quake was centered in a narrow strait just off Negros Island. Authorities say a landslide killed 29 people, others were killed in buildings and homes that collapsed on Negros, including the seaside town of La Libertad. Dozens of people are missing. Numerous aftershocks continued to shake the island hours after the quake. Officials say there is no concern of a tsunami, although some coastal towns nearby were hit by large waves. VOA
Thanks Dr. I am no expert/or informed enough on GW issues to add to the "big picture" discussion in light of recent events but one has to wonder if certain "tipping points" are being reached with mother nature. Mother Earth has been a relatively forgiving enviornment, and had tended to recycle and absorb many of the natural cycles over the past millenia. However, one cannot ignore the fact that many of the fossil fuels that modern industrial society "digs up from under ground" and re-burns were already digested by Mother Earth so to speak and laid to rest underground. Now Man has dug it back up and re-introduced it to the atmosphere for recycling a second time. Seems to me that something has to give on this simple point over time.
TC Jasmine 163000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 980.4mb/ 57.0kt

Raw T# 5.9
Adj T# 3.9
Final T# 3.6

I would say Jasmine is doing some nice strengthening:)
2 second look in: We got rained on about 11:15 by this thing.



It's stopped for now, but the sky is still overcast. Temps dropped quite suddenly just before the rain started. Looks like we're going to get a cool-down, what with the front expected to drag through later this week.
That teletype to the Cuban meteorological service is so patronizing. Sad, really.
here in southern ontario we have another normal abnormal day temp wise 45 f looking at a high of 48 maybe 50 by afternoon no snow cover or ice cover ground completely thawed strange for sure for feb looks like normal temps by end of the week
Japan's Nuclear Exclusion Zone Shows Few Signs of Life
By AKIKO FUJITA | Good Morning America – 4 hours ago

What's most striking about Japan's nuclear exclusion zone, is what you don't see. There are no people, few cars, no sign of life, aside from the occasional livestock wandering empty roads.
Areas once home to 80,000 people are now ghost towns, frozen in time. Homes ravaged from the powerful earthquake that shook this region nearly a year ago, remain virtually untouched. Collapsed roofs still block narrow streets. Cracked roads, make for a bumpy ride.
In seaside communities, large fishing boats line the side of the road, next to piles of debris. Abandoned cars, dot otherwise empty fields. It's a scene reminiscent of tsunami-battered prefectures Miyagi and Iwate, last March – except those communities have cleaned up a significant amount of the debris since, in preparation for rebuilding efforts.

We had been trying to get our cameras inside here for months, eager to document the fallout from the world's worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, 11 months on.

While workers of the Fukushima plant are bused in daily, the government has maintained a 12-mile no-go zone around the area for everyone else, only allowing for brief, supervised visits home for residents who still have homes here.

Few Signs of Life in Fukushima Exclusion Zone

"There are police cars patrolling every corner," we were warned. "As soon as they spot your camera, you will be arrested."

On Saturday, a local driver with a special permit agreed to sneak my cameraman and I in, so long as we didn't reveal his identity.

We put on thin, white hazmat suits and masks as a precaution, grabbed a Geiger counter and dosimeter to monitor radiation levels, then slipped past police guarding the exclusion zone entrance, onto the main road running through Japan's nuclear wasteland.

That road, Highway 6, seemed remarkably, unremarkable. We drove past miles of empty parking lots, barren land, closed storefronts. Something you'd expect in any small town, early on a Saturday morning.

Then, the Geiger counter quickly reminded us of where we were. As we approached the road to the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, the numbers ticked up. Less than a mile out, the counter read "27.62 microsieverts an hour" – not a dangerous dose in the short amount of time we were there, but nearly five times the acceptable limit for U.S. nuclear workers, if consumed over a year.

We passed a bus full of Fukushima plant workers, as we drove further away from the reactors. The numbers started to tick down again.

In the the town of Namie, we met Masami Yoshizawa, a rancher who has defied government orders to euthanize more than 200 of his cows. His cattle, raised for premium wagyu beef, used to fetch $13,000 a head. Now they are contaminated with cesium.

Yoshizawa witnessed the reactor explosions from his farm, located just 9 miles from the plant. Radiation concerns forced he and fellow ranchers to evacuate soon after – his, boss opting to unleash all of the cows, thinking he would never return.

Yoshizawa said he couldn't abandon the cattle, completely. He obtained a permit to re-enter the exclusion zone, so he could feed the animals. He's been driving an hour and a half from his temporary home every day since, to look after them.

"The government didn't even try to save the animals," he told me. "They just wanted to kill them. I am filled with rage."

He displays the rage outside his ranch, where he's handwritten angry messages on large, pieces of plywood. One sign placed near a cow's remains reads "Stop killing our animals."

The government has said it will take at least 30 years to decommission the crippled reactors. While Yoshizawa insists he isn't going anywhere, the reality is, this nuclear wasteland may not be livable for decades.
As we hopped back in our car, to drive out of the exclusion zone, our driver asked if he could take us to the town center in Futaba. There was something he wanted to show us.
We drove past the main train station, past small office buildings, and retail stores, until we saw a sign marking the entrance to the main shopping district.

It read, "Nuclear power – the bright future of energy."
Good night all.

But before I go here is a news story.

What lies beneath
preparing for almost a summer time like setup here in Central Florida.. LOL what a weird way to start the year.
I'm starting to think that we were all unconscious for 45 days (maybe the HAARP backfired?) and that it's actually late March.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You're certainly within your rights to disagree with that statement, along with mountains of evidence, thousands of peer-reviewed papers, the opinion of 97% of climatologists, and every major scientific body on the planet. FWIW, though, I tend to agree with it. I also agree with something else Dr. Masters wrote above:

"...there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events."


You claim mountains of evidence but there is nothing that directly correlates human involvement with climate change, at least nothing that can't be equally correlated to climate cycles, sun cycles, ect. So in turn, its a very bold and in my eyes borderline irresponsible statement.
Quoting aburttschell:


You claim mountains of evidence but there is nothing that directly correlates human involvement with climate change, at least nothing that can't be equally correlated to climate cycles, sun cycles, ect. So in turn, its a very bold and in my eyes borderline irresponsible statement.


There is a great deal of evidence of direct human involvement in global warming. Your statement is completely wrong and false. Here is the Global Mean Effective Forcing table from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, run by NASA. Man-made greenhouse gas emission forcings are in the column on the left. Land use is 5th from left.

Global Mean Effective Forcing (W/m2)
The "climate cycles, sun cycles, etc..." were all factored in, and the "human involvement" is what is left over that is needed to explain why the climate has been behaving the way it has been.
Quoting JNCali:
I'm starting to think that we were all unconscious for 45 days (maybe the HAARP backfired?) and that it's actually late March.
by late march could be like mid june
New blog out guys, concerns remains of 90L and Jasmine Link

Feel free to leave comment let me know what u think!
Quoting aburttschell:


You claim mountains of evidence but there is nothing that directly correlates human involvement with climate change, at least nothing that can't be equally correlated to climate cycles, sun cycles, ect. So in turn, its a very bold and in my eyes borderline irresponsible statement.


Well, um, you're wrong? LOL.

Solar energy?
If anything, the Sun is actually producing slightly less energy than it did a few centuries ago, so right there that excludes the Sun as the cause of warming.

Geothermal energy?
It is considered negligible. Because it comes primarily from radioactive decay, it decreases exponentially with time. This means that even though there may be some ups and downs along the way, on time scales of centuries, millenia and longer, geothermal energy always decreases.


Not very many other things could be causing warming:

Exotic cosmic radiation - hasn't been detected, because everything that has been detected is negligible. The sum of all known energy from EM and particles from stellar radiation and cosmic radiation from beyond the solar system amounts to milliwatts and microwatts per meter square.

Any unknown radiation would need to be of an absurdly small wavelength or exotic properties in order to interact with the planet, but evade detection.

Even the crab nebula supernova probably only affected the Earth's average energy input by a few milliwatts, and only for about a year or two, and that was one of the biggest and closest supernovas since Earth has existed.

That leaves man made causes of one type or another to explain warming.

You can start with the 70% heat waste of our technology, and also road salts lowering the melting point of water, and albedo changes from roofs and roads...

Now heat waste from our technology for the entire planet comes to about 12 Terawatts for all of human civilization. So if you figure that up for a year, it's 3.78E20 Joules.

Now if you divide that by the number of liters in a cubic kilometer, and divide again by the heat of fusion of water, you get 1130km^3 of net ice melting to water per year from human heat waste, IF you assumed all heat waste went directly to melting snow, sea ice, and glaciers, which it doesn't. Turns out, most of it radiates into space.

Even if it all went into melting ice, our heat waste would not explain the two big down anomalies in the past 5 years for sea ice, AND the annual average of net loss of Sea Ice and Greenland ice cap combined is still about 50% larger than that total from the heat waste, so even if it was ideally transported to the glaciers, heat waste would not be enough to explain the melting.

Once you realize those things are actually barely above negligible, then you're out of options except greenhouse gases...
Quoting aburttschell:


You claim mountains of evidence but there is nothing that directly correlates human involvement with climate change, at least nothing that can't be equally correlated to climate cycles, sun cycles, ect. So in turn, its a very bold and in my eyes borderline irresponsible statement.
Unfortunately, that's not true. Brian gave you a great link in #63, and there are many, many others.

There were still a few low temperature records set today in Europe, but it's interesting to note that Iceland set a few record highs today, as have locations in the Azores and mainland Portugal.
This week's update of ENSO by Climate Prediction Center has Nino 3.4 more colder than last week's -1.1C. This week is down to -1.2C, meaning the moderate La Nina is still hanging on.

Link
Lots of energy (you will need) in Rincon PR, today...


Been some thunder boomers here in Orlando today. Feels like summer here with dewpoints around 70. Very high Cape Values as well.



I'm surprised they would conclude with that. Looking at the evolution of sub-surface temperature anomalies, it's clear that the thermocline is deepening over the central Pacific and rising in the eastern Pacific. See the CPC link.

There are now warm anomalies greater than 5C! Watching the loop, you can notice an eastward progression of sub-surface warm anomalies to about 160W at the end of the loop, suggesting the presence of an oceanic-Kelvin wave. In support of this, the total isotherms (top plot) are becoming more vertical in nature, creating an oceanic temperature "front". This front acts like a breaking wave in the ocean, where warm temperatures will progress eastward along the front. I'm going to be surprised if the La Nina signature doesn't dampen out by spring. The only uncertainity lies in if a signficant westerly wind burst will accelerate the eastward flow of warm water across the Pacific.

I have a real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagram on my webpage in which the principle components are only constructed using 850 Zonal wind. It appears the low-level westerly winds associated with the current strong MJO event have begun to retrograde back towards the west. I'm not sure how this will affect the evolution of the oceanic Kelvin wave (if it will at all).





Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This week's update of ENSO by Climate Prediction Center has Nino 3.4 more colder than last week's -1.1C. This week is down to -1.2C, meaning the moderate La Nina is still hanging on.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Been some thunder boomers here in Orlando today. Feels like summer here with dewpoints around 70. Very high Cape Values as well.





Yeah its crazy! Atmospheric conditions certainly support the chance of significant convection in the Tampa Bay area later today with the sea breeze collision. Its 85 here by the way, this is boarder line unheard of for early February!
Quoting Jedkins01:
preparing for almost a summer time like setup here in Central Florida.. LOL what a weird way to start the year.


It's Global Warming caused by human emmissions.
Here's my personal experience on warm it has been this winter in Toronto. On many days during December, January and now into February I have opened the door to let the dog out. Nothing remarkable about that except that I decided to go out with her, in my T-Shirt. We have had so many new record temperatures set this past winter, maximum or minimums across Canada that it is starting to become the new normal.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah its crazy! Atmospheric conditions certainly support the chance of significant convection in the Tampa Bay area later today with the sea breeze collision. Its 85 here by the way, this is boarder line unheard of for early February!
Yessir. The radar is reminiscent of July in central-south florida. The east coast sea breeze is moving in from the SE and it looks like the west coast sea breeze is starting to become active about 10-15 miles inland. A line of stronger storms will develop from south to north as the collision occurs in a couple of hours.
Exit stage right S. Fl system. Lookout mid-gulf.
Quoting jrweatherman:


It's Global Warming caused by human emmissions.


LOL!! good one

Hi everybody, I apologize for intruding in to the conversation and Doctor's blog but I dont know any other place that I can find the most up to date information for anything under the sun.
For the past few hours there is a big storm that affects western Greece/eastern Italy and apart from some satellite images I cant really find any detailed information about the storms pressure and such.... Can anyone help with some links?
I find this storm really unusual for its location and strength, especially for this time of year.
I thank everyone in advance and I apologize again for intruding. Have a beautiful day!
Quoting allisfineingreece:
Hi everybody, I apologize for intruding in to the conversation and Doctor's blog but I dont know any other place that I can find the most up to date information for anything under the sun.
For the past few hours there is a big storm that affects western Greece/eastern Italy and apart from some satellite images I cant really find any detailed information about the storms pressure and such.... Can anyone help with some links?
I find this storm really unusual for its location and strength, especially for this time of year.
I thank everyone in advance and I apologize again for intruding. Have a beautiful day!
You can try this one. If not, I will post another....Link
Quoting hydrus:
You can try this one. If not, I will post another....Link

Thank you so much! That was exactly what I was looking for!
Quoting aburttschell:


You claim mountains of evidence but there is nothing that directly correlates human involvement with climate change, at least nothing that can't be equally correlated to climate cycles, sun cycles, ect. So in turn, its a very bold and in my eyes borderline irresponsible statement.


Have you even bothered to read any of the peer-reviewed science on the matter? The IPCC report alones contains hundreds of references to peer reviewed science articles describing in detail how the changes are being caused (or at the very least, influenced) by human emission.

Or if that is too much to digest (it's a big report) you could try a journal like Nature which regularly features articles on climate science as well as other scientific research.

Or you could just try using some basic principles from chemistry, physics, and thermodynamics. It's fairly easy to conduct a basic experiment, even in your own home, that demonstrates the effects of greenhouse gases.

Climate cycles? For the climate to change, something needs to trigger that change. The planet does not cool or warm just because it feels the need to. Such events can be large scale eruptions, asteroid impacts, orbital variances, abnormal solar disturbances, etc. . None of these are currently happening to the planet.

Solar cycles? Solar cycles have no appreciable impact on warming or cooling over climate scales. Only in the cases of abnormal events does that change, and if anything we are in a lull. So that isn't the cause.

AMO, PDO, AO, etc.? Again, these do not create heat. The Earth does not produce any appreciable surface heat. It all comes from the sun.

So if the Earth does not create heat, solar output has not appreciably increased, and Earth's orbital characteristics have not changed in any significant way, then how is the planet heating up?

Simple. The planet is retaining more heat. How? Again, simple. The heating has happened rapidly and it has happened within the past 100 years or so. What about our planet has changed on a global scale over the past 100 years that could possibly be causing the Earth to retain more heat? How about the massive increase in greenhouse gases? Occam's razor and all that.

Using repeatedly debunked arguments as a basis for your opinion doesn't really add anything new to the conversation. If you can provide links to peer-reviewed scientific research that backs up your claims, that would be much more useful.

Or you could forgo finding the research, and simply provide an explanation for planetary warming that excludes increased GHG concentrations that doesn't violate the laws of thermodynamics and/or contradict current observations.
Realclimate.Org is a good source to see and or find some of the peer reviewed litrature on climate change issues if anyone is interested in digging deeper in these issues.

Here is the link:

Link
Quoting RevElvis:
1952 / 2012 both "Water Dragon" years in Chinese astrology. (just sayin')

Do water dragons fly? I think it might rain here. YAY
Tonight will be the fourth night of 0 degree F temps in western Germany. Highs only in the teens. Should continue all week at or just above this. Should I move to Florida?
Quoting airman45:
Tonight will be the fourth night of 0 degree F temps in western Germany. Highs only in the teens. Should continue all week at or just above this. Should I move to Florida?
Florida is great. They are over due for a hurricane tho..
Hi All --

So fascinated by the little blob of 80-degree water in the GOM above the Yucatan Channel. Can anyone say if this is unusual for this time of year. (I know the rest of the Gulf is certainly warmer than usual for this time of year - no water temps in the 50s even around Mobile Bay.)

Also, has anyone got a feel for the temps in the Atlantic, whether current temps across the main hurricane-formation zone are warmer than usual for this time of year? Danke!
NRL updated with 65kts for Jasmine.



Quoting airman45:
Tonight will be the fourth night of 0 degree F temps in western Germany. Highs only in the teens. Should continue all week at or just above this. Should I move to Florida?


Yowza!!

You know, the amplitude occurring in the jet stream this winter (in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere outside of the US), is just frightful. Does anyone know if the steepness of that amplitude is abnormal?
Look at the western gulf
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Hi All --

So fascinated by the little blob of 80-degree water in the GOM above the Yucatan Channel. Can anyone say if this is unusual for this time of year. (I know the rest of the Gulf is certainly warmer than usual for this time of year - no water temps in the 50s even around Mobile Bay.)

Also, has anyone got a feel for the temps in the Atlantic, whether current temps across the main hurricane-formation zone are warmer than usual for this time of year? Danke!


This product was produced 2 days ago, but the site seems to have updated it only just this morning.



The central Gulf coast is 1C above average, but the area around Florida is 1C below average, contrary to what some people on here have recently posted in the past few days.

The warming trend in the temperate zone is already on the rise. It spent a lot of time looking like that last year, and since the days are already getting longer this year, it looks like these sorts of anomalies may become the new normal for 35N and beyond.

Given the speed of ocean currents, this hot blob doesn't look good for arctic sea ice a month or two from now, particularly since the ice is already well below the previous record curve.

pacific side:



Temperate hot spot is the biggest it's been since like mid summer last year, but not nearly as HOT, and also slightly south of where it was last year.

All things considered, I don't see any reason why it wouldn't easily get a solid 2C or 3C shield of excess heat out there again this year.

La Nina still in full swing.
Lots of chaotic motion going on in the GOM, BOC
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Look at the western gulf


This?



Attached to an old front still.

Quoting hydrus:
Florida is great. They are over due for a hurricane tho..
if pattern we have been seeing the last couple of seasons holds out
luck may hold we shall see soon enough
Quoting OrchidGrower:


Yowza!!

You know, the amplitude occurring in the jet stream this winter (in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere outside of the US), is just frightful. Does anyone know if the steepness of that amplitude is abnormal?
just another perfectly normal abnormal day
85 airman45 "Tonight will be the fourth night of 0 degree F temps in western Germany. Highs only in the teens. Should continue all week at or just above this. Should I move to Florida?"

Absolutely. The BurmesePythons are running outta foxes, rabbits, bobcats, raccoons, deer...
...and PETA's gettin' a bit worried.
Re: #91 - thanks, RTS!

Interesting that we are below normal temps here along the Florida coastline. Except for the first week of January, our temps here in SW Florida have been largely around 80 degrees and above, daytime, and in the 50s and 60s at night.

This is my third winter here, and of course the first two were plagued by cold. So I don't have a good grasp yet of what a "normal" winter is like down here (Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area). But my garden is LOVING IT this winter! Only complaint has been the profound lack of rain, and I have to assume that if we don't have deep cold outbreaks over the next couple of months, the Gulf should warm up sufficiently to support an early start to the rainy season here -- which would ROCK!!

Running an errand; back in a few....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if pattern we have been seeing the last couple of seasons holds out
luck may hold we shall see soon enough
This is true..In this pattern, they either go east of Florida and recurve, or south into Central America or Mexico. Bonnie being a virtual non-event
I wonder if 90L is a harbinger of things to come..

Guys, I need weather links, and lots of them. As some of you will know, I've been having some troubles with my laptop, so last night I decided it was time for a full system restore. However, being as unlucky as I am, I completely forgot to save my bookmarks, and so now I have to start over.
Ah HA!

GFS

Still insists that a Depression, or near-depression strength low is going to form on the 10th or 11th, much like it originally said a week ago.

Once again has it 1012mb on the 11th in the Gulf or Florida Straits,a nd then down to like 1008mb just off shore from Florida.

Maybe GFS just likes spawning 1012mb lows or something.

Takes it to a 948-ish low near Canada and Greenland. What a beast that'll be!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder if 90L is a harbinger of things to come..

Guys, I need weather links, and lots of them. As some of you will know, I've been having some troubles with my laptop, so last night I decided it was time for a full system restore. However, being as unlucky as I am, I completely forgot to save my bookmarks, and so now I have to start over.
The gulf will be a couple degrees above average if nothing major happens the remainder of the winter. Another thing worthy of note, if the gulf remains warm, the intensity of severe weather outbreaks may be even greater.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder if 90L is a harbinger of things to come..

Guys, I need weather links, and lots of them. As some of you will know, I've been having some troubles with my laptop, so last night I decided it was time for a full system restore. However, being as unlucky as I am, I completely forgot to save my bookmarks, and so now I have to start over.


Here are a bunch of links from our friend Adrian's (Hurricane23) site.

Link
Quoting hydrus:
The gulf will be a couple degrees above average if nothing major happens the remainder of the winter. Another thing worthy of note, if the gulf remains warm, the intensity of severe weather outbreaks may be even greater.
The sun is moving nicely northward now, and the days are growing longer; the sun is now pretty much where it was the first week of November, and gaining in strength every day. The point being, even a deep cold front moving over the GOM won't have the same cooling effect on water temperatures as it would have back in, say, the first week of January.

Bottom line, then: look for some very warm--likely record warm hot--Gulf temperatures this year.
Any ideas when the Jet Stream is supposed to start behaving normal again?

It's a good thing this actually is February, and not August or September.

I don't see any normal-looking temperatures in the forecast for at least the next week.

According to the forecast, Friday is going to be the first day in February which will have a low as low as 40.

We may not even get another day at or below freezing this year. That's ridiculous.
If action if February means anything, 1952 was a slow year ... very slow.

This little tidbit was true many weeks ago, and it's still amazingly true now: there's been more snow this winter in Midland, TX (19.5") than Chicago (13.9"), the Twin Cities (14.9"), Green Bay, WI (15.6"), Boston (7.8") or New York (7.2").
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If action if February means anything, 1952 was a slow year ... very slow.


But that was before satellites...
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If action if February means anything, 1952 was a slow year ... very slow.


Of the 7 systems that formed on that year,6 became hurricanes.

Link
Fukushima Crisis Awakes After Reactor Heats Up Mysteriously

Just when you thought it was over, the temperature at reactor number 2 at Fukushima's nuclear plant has soared 26.7 degrees Celsius in the last few hours. Worse: they don't know why the temperature is increasing after being stabilized for so long.

The reactor reached 164 degrees Fahrenheit (73.3 degrees Celsius) after being stabilized at 113 degrees Fahrenheit (45 degrees Celsius) since last December. Here's the latest official update by Tepco, the owner of the plant:

At this moment, temperature indicates approx. 71.0 °C (as of 11:00 am on February 6). We will monitor it continuously.

The reactors were finally shut down cold after ten months of dramatic struggle by company and emergency workers.

Tepco has admitted that they don't have a clue about what is going on. They have increased the amount of water pumped into the reactor ten percent, but their technicians don't know what is going on. The change was detected in one of the three thermometers at the base of the reactor.

The plant was hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake and a tsunami that caused all systems to shut down, sending the reactors and spent nuclear fuel rods into a disastrous spiral of malfunctions that ended in a meltdown and venting of radioactivity material to the water and the atmosphere.

Helicopters have started to survey the area above the plant to gather information about the current radiation level in the air.
Illinois nuclear reactor expels radioactive steam
By Marcus Day
6 February 2012


A nuclear reactor in Byron, Illinois, about 95 miles northwest of Chicago, released radioactive steam into the environment after an unexpected shutdown Monday morning. The steam was deliberately released by plant operators in an effort to prevent equipment at the reactor from overheating. Additionally, smoke was spotted rising from a station transformer at the plant itself. However, a fire crew called to the scene was unable to determine its source and whether or not it was caused by a fire. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission declared the incident an “unusual event,” the first of four stages of nuclear emergency.
The Exelon Corporation, which runs the Byron Nuclear Generating Station, claims the reactor lost power after a line insulator failed at an electrical switchyard dozens of miles away from the plant itself. The reactor’s equipment continued to run on diesel power for four days, at which point workers were able to replace the malfunctioning insulator.
The steam released from the plant contained tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen. Although tritium is too weak to penetrate the skin, it can be dangerous if touched, inhaled, or ingested via food or water.
While officials claim that the amount of radioactive material expelled was “minimal” and poses no immediate health risks, they have been unable to determine exactly how much tritium was released in the steam. Tritium molecules are small enough that they are able to pass from tubing in the reactor itself into the water, which is used to cool equipment outside the reactor. It was from this area of the plant, where the turbines normally operate, that the steam was released, in order to reduce pressure and cool the inactive equipment.
Exelon, based in Chicago, is the largest utility holding company and operates the second largest number of nuclear reactors in the US. This is by no means the first time operators at an Exelon plant have deliberately released radioactive steam in order to cool a reactor. Another of Exelon’s reactors in Braidwood, Illinois, 50 miles southwest of Chicago, expelled tritium steam in 2010. Moreover, in 2006, it was revealed that both the company and state officials had waited years before publicly revealing that this plant had spilled millions of gallons of water, also containing tritium.
The “unusual event” at Byron was not the only radioactive leak at an American plant this week: the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also reported a “minor” release of radioactive material at a reactor in San Onofre, California. The origin of this leak remains undetermined.
An investigation by the Associated Press last year revealed that there have been tritium leaks at least at 48 of 65 nuclear energy production sites in the United States. Many of these leaks have found their way into the groundwater via damaged and neglected piping. In fact, two of these previous leaks were documented as contaminating the drinking wells of homes in Illinois, though not at levels exceeding the NRC’s limits for safe drinking water. It is important to note, however, that the American standard for “safe” amounts of tritium in drinking water is nearly eight times that of the European Union.
Even though the frequency and severity of leaks and equipment failures have been increasing over recent decades, as pipes and other equipment fall into ever-greater disrepair, the federal agency charged with regulating the industry has significantly increased the number of licenses, which they have extended for plants. As of 2011, at least 60 percent of nuclear plants have received 20-year extensions on their 40-year operating licenses.
The Obama administration, despite its professions of concern for environmental safety, maintains an incestuous relationship with Exelon. Rahm Emanuel, the mayor of Chicago and Obama’s former chief of staff, helped play a critical role in the merger that formed Exelon in 1999. David Axelrod, until recently Obama’s senior advisor, was a communications consultant to the company. In addition to top executives at the corporation having raised significant funds for several of Obama’s political campaigns, officials from Obama’s energy department have left their posts for lucrative positions at the company.
The incidents at Byron and San Onofre come less than a year after an earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, knocking out power and backup cooling systems at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, triggering meltdowns at three of the plant’s six reactors, and eventually leading to one of the worst nuclear disasters in history, second perhaps only to Chernobyl.
Officials at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which ran the plant, delayed taking critical measures to prevent the reactor from overheating out of concern that they would present considerable expenses to the company in the future. Both TEPCO officials and members of the Japanese government consciously played down the extent of damage to the plant and the health risks facing those living nearby. Even though TEPCO had a long history of cover-ups and safety violations, they were allowed by the Japanese government to remain in control of trying to manage the disaster. Nearly 100,000 people have been forced to flee their homes because of widespread nuclear contamination, and traces of radioactivity continue to turn up in food in Japan’s major cities.
Even though TEPCO officials claim they have managed to force the damaged reactors into a state of “cold shutdown,” there is evidence that the plant continues to expel radioactive material. Just this week, it was discovered that a dislodged pipe allowed 8.5 tons of radioactive water to leak from the plant. Nuclear experts remain concerned about the structural integrity of the pool in which spent fuel is kept; if this pool were to collapse, it could produce a catastrophe worse than the meltdowns of the plant’s three reactors.
After the disaster at Fukushima, even though there was widespread concern internationally about the safety of nuclear power plants, Obama officials maintained that existing safety regulations were satisfactory and refused to seriously re-evaluate the aggressive plan for expansion of the domestic nuclear industry.
In March 2011, a day after hydrogen explosions erupted at Fukushima’s damaged reactors, US energy secretary Stephen Chu went before a congressional subcommittee to claim that “The American people should have full confidence that the United States has rigorous safety regulations in place to ensure that our nuclear power is generated safely and responsibly” and that “the administration is committed to learning from Japan’s experience as we work to continue to strengthen America’s nuclear industry to reevaluate domestic nuclear industry.”
Clearly, as the continual near misses and “minor” accidents at American nuclear facilities reveal, the administration is in fact committed to nothing but the defense of the nuclear industry’s profit interests. While these companies remain under private ownership, the health and safety of both the population and the environment will remain, at best, an afterthought.
strong storm cell firing up right next to me with the sea breeze collision, DBZ reading at 62 max and a top to 34000 ft and some thunder rumbles now. Absolutely unheard of weather for February.

I mean its not that we don't get rain or thunderstorms this time of year, but we never get them this way, it has to normally come from a cold front/low pressure system.
Looks like Jasmine is trying to become a pretty system. Sadly, it will be hitting land in the next day or so.



Quoting sunlinepr:
Lots of energy (you will need) in Rincon PR, today...


wow some beautiful waves there, ty for those pics
Wow. that 1952 image is historic.
And the language in it really shows how much less we knew about the world of weather back then. If there is only one thing that i've learned in my years of tracking systems, it is that the only weather that is 100% guaranteed, is the weather that is right outside your window. And even that can change in a matter of minutes. As much as we probably still hate to admit it, there really are no absolute statements in weather.
Very storng storms firing on the westside of FL and expect this activity to slowly build back east overnight. Very unusual to see this type of convective activity in February.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If action if February means anything, 1952 was a slow year ... very slow.


That was a long time ago. I guarantee you there were several more storms that went out to sea that year.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 17.7S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery with peripheral surface reports

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved over the past 24 hours. Convection has increased in the last 6 hours. System remains in a region of strong diffluent enhanced by a short-wave trough just to the southwest. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by strong northwesterly steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.85 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone still expected to intensify further as
It remains in a favorable environment. Models generally agree on a east-southeast movement and further intensification within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 18.0S 164.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.7S 166.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.8S 170.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
6:00 AM FST February 7 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI, VAVA'U AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.


At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category One (987 hPa) located at 18.8S 174.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 18 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands trying to trap around the low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies to the east of an upper short wave trough and south of 250 hpa ridge axis. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500hpa. System lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.2S 170.4W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.0S 166.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 27.7S 157.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1)


The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very storng storms firing on the westside of FL and expect this activity to slowly build back east overnight. Very unusual to see this type of convective activity in February.

Very unusual to have an invest to your south also. With two low pressure areas in the gulf to pull up abundant tropical moisture, it is not a total surprise. One thing is certain, the models are starting to produce some significant weather. Including a vast area of lower pressure in the western gulf, and cold air charging south. The Euro also has a powerful storm now at the end of the 240 hour run. The 168 run shows the cold air..
we reached a high of 47f today lots of sun nice day normal is 28f for a high this time of year cooler beginning tomorrow and getting colder as week progresses for a bit
119:

Yeah, I think that's the same one the GFS was saying will be 948mb.

Starts as a 1012 surface low in the gulf, and then after some merging becomes that monster.

Would NOT want to be in a boat in that. LOL.

At least it stays well of shore from the CONUS.
Currently raining VERY hard right now, just had a really close lightning hit as well, temp fell down to 68 I wouldn't be surprised to see some hail out of this thanks to winter time cold air aloft.
Quoting hydrus:
Very unusual to have an invest to your south also. With two low pressure areas in the gulf to pull up abundant tropical moisture, it is not a total surprise. One thing is certain, the models are starting to produce some significant weather. Including a vast area of lower pressure in the western gulf, and cold air charging south. The Euro also has a powerful storm now at the end of the 240 hour run. The 168 run shows the cold air..



Yeah it looks like we may get a very beneficial rain maker this weekend based on what I'm seeing so far. My rain gauge is approaching 1 inch from this nice cell right now though!
The CMC has the cold air too, and the storm over the plains in 240 hours. CMC-144 hours..
Ok, you're looking at the plains, I'm looking at the east coast.

The one on the plains looks puny by comparison. Sorry for the confusion.
As always, thank you for the model loops Keep..
Quoting SPLbeater:


i found that possible second storm first, its mine! lol

Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit the earth!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That was a long time ago. I guarantee you there were several more storms that went out to sea that year.


here is a link to ALL weather services since u said u need links Link
The Western GOM storm has a cirrculation on it! Visible proves it!
Its heading south.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
The Western GOM storm has a cirrculation on it! Visible proves it!
Its heading south.


cute little thing..


We all need to see a dancing llama once in a while to lighten the mood!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


But that was before satellites...


Still, any missed storms just swirled out to sea harmlessly...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We all need to see a dancing llama once in a while to lighten the mood!

Thomas and Friends old theme song...how i miss it.
And here we have TC 11P in the SE Pacific...


CORRECTION: this is not 11P; its some random swirl lol
Quoting SPLbeater:
And here we have TC 11P in the SE Pacific...


CORRECTION: this is not 11P; its some random swirl lol

Invest 97P most likely.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!
________________________________________________

User: What is the name of the girl that I currently like?

Cleverbot: I don't like a girl, I like a boy.

User: I am talking about me, what girl do I like?

Cleverbot: So, your name is Lion.

User: What is her name?

Cleverbot: Who?

User: The girl that I like.

Cleverbot: Who is the girl that you love?

User: Yes, what is her name?

Cleverbot: Justin Bieber.

User: Oh god no....

Cleverbot: O god yes.

User: .....

Cleverbot: What?

User: Justin Bieber is a girl, but that isn't who I am talking about.

Cleverbot: Justin Bieber is a girl, haven't you heard her voice?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Invest 97P most likely.


ya probably
time to go eat a pizza be back soOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOon lol
For West Palm Beach...

While Punxsutawny Phil predicts six more weeks of Winter, CPC's CFSv2 predicts at least 4-6 more months of La Nina.

Weekly ENSO Update 6. February 2012
Beautiful day here in Mid TN.. grey skies finally cleared this afternoon, high in the 60's.. love it..
Got to go take pictures of the food at a bbq place down the street..(I'm building their website) Thank god I took my kids with me, they just kept bringing our plates of food and we'd take pictures and pass to plates to the kids.. I came home with 9 cartons of left-overs, ribs, pulled pork, chicken, baked beans, coleslaw etc etc etc.. I love my job!
Slow blog.
Me:So, will the 2012 Hurricane season be active?
Cleverbot: Yes they will, they'll come to get you.
Me: How many hurricanes will hit?
Cleverbot: All.

O_O OMG, DOOMSDAY! 2012 will KILL US ALL! XD
#110

"Nuclear experts remain concerned about the structural integrity of the pool in which spent fuel is kept; if this pool were to collapse, it could produce a catastrophe worse than the meltdowns of the plant’s three reactors."

That's a nice tidbit. Godzilla's up to some mischief that's for sure.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Slow blog.


this is normal for the off season....just seems slow after yesterdays' hype on 90L :D
Quoting bappit:
#110

"Nuclear experts remain concerned about the structural integrity of the pool in which spent fuel is kept; if this pool were to collapse, it could produce a catastrophe worse than the meltdowns of the plant’s three reactors."

That's a nice tidbit. Godzilla's up to some mischief that's for sure.

Got a nice summer shower here on the West Coast. Thank you GW......
Radiation network. Little higher is spots tonight.
Wow! That's beautiful.
Looks like moderate chaff down by the keys tonight. That whispy on radar where there is no clouds..
156. BDAwx
Cyclone Jasmine coming into view on New Caledonia Radar courtesy of MeteoFrance. (Tiébaghi site)
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like moderate chaff down by the keys tonight. That whispy on radar where there is no clouds..

Guess they don't want people to know what they are doing?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

maybe somebody dancing with Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
TC Cyril...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


what, it not show up?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

what, it not show up?

Yes it did show up, but I didn't want the quote to be so long, so I only put the first sentence of your comment.
Im bored. And i am NOT fooling with that uncleverbot.


SOMETHING COMING
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop


..click Image for Loop

ZOOM is available

165:

Maybe that's the thing the GFS says will be in the Gulf on the 10th and 11th?

Weird stuff happening here. Very weird indeed.
A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x < (or equal to 100) for all m such that 1/2< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


Sry had to re-type that.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
All right wunderground. I need to test your math skills with a math probleme I cant figure out for the life of me. I turn to you as a last resort none of my mates know how to do it either.

A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx + 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x £ 100 for all m such that
1
2
< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


Of 'a' what?!?!?!?!
Quoting presslord:


Of 'a' what?!?!?!?!

a pack of smokes
a glass of beer
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
All right wunderground. I need to test your math skills with a math probleme I cant figure out for the life of me. I turn to you as a last resort none of my mates know how to do it either.

A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx + 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x £ 100 for all m such that
1
2
< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


i aint even at that level yet..and what i got i hate lol. sorry sport :/
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
All right wunderground. I need to test your math skills with a math probleme I cant figure out for the life of me. I turn to you as a last resort none of my mates know how to do it either.

A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx + 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x £ 100 for all m such that
1
2
< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?

Funny, we just started taking something similar to that in class this semester. But, that problem is a little too much for me. Not to mention my books are in Spanish, so some of your wording confuses me.
From Uni Bremen, here are same-date images of ice coverage in the Barentsz and Kara Seas that show something pretty startling going on.

As Neven says over on his Arctic Sea Ice Blog: "The Sun is barely rising over the horizon right now and remains visible for only a couple of hours. But this will soon change and it won't be long before there is enough light for us to start gazing at the MODIS satellite images. Whether the sea ice will retreat even more in the meantime or whether we will see a late freeze-up in the Barentsz and Kara Seas, remains to be seen. But as things currently stand, the Atlantic side of the Arctic looks spectacular. Spectacular and ominous."

Click for larger image:

Uh-oh
A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx + 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x < (or equal to 100) for all m such that 1/2< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


Sry had to re-type that.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x < (or equal to 100) for all m such that 1/2< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


Sry had to re-type that.


EDIT: Note I changed this - after reading your question more carefully.

Aha. Starting with the slope at 0.5, you get intercepts at (2,3), (4,4), (6,5), generally up to ((n-2)*2,n).

Given that your limit of x (n-2)*2 is 100, then the largest one of these intercepts is where n = 52, i.e (100,52).

Moving m upwards moves the x value to the left, so our next intercept point would be (99,52) - this is the limit for m. Back substituting this point using:

m = (y - 2) / x

Gives me

m = (52 - 2) / 99

m = 0.5050...

Or am I missing something?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx + 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x < (or equal to 100) for all m such that 1/2< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


Sry had to re-type that.


I have't done formal math in a while, but I don't think it has a maximum value, hence infinity.

m could be any irrational number and it would fulfill your criteria, because y would never be an integer since 0
"a" seems to be irrelevant, except to say that there must be "something" larger than m.

Since I see no irrational value of m that can't exist, then I suppose a should be infinity.


And then you can argue over whether one infinity is larger than another via the squeeze rule, etc.

Of course, I could be wrong. Like I said, it's been a while since I did formal math.
Quoting chimera245:


Consider that a slope of 1/2 would imply an intercept at (2,3) (y = (0.5 * 2) + 2), the next intercept with a slope > 0.5 would be (1,3). Rearranging to m = (y - 2) / x gives:

m = (3 - 2) / 1

therefore max value of a is 1.


See?!?!?! This right here is what makes this blog so great!!! I have no idea if the answer is correct...because I have no idea what the question is asking...but ya just gotta love the spirit...
179. j2008
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


SOMETHING COMING
If it keeps this up we may just get Alberto this month......looks like we have 91L on the way. JMO
Quoting RTSplayer:


I have't done formal math in a while, but I don't think it has a maximum value, hence infinity.

m could be any irrational number and it would fulfill your criteria, because y would never be an integer since 0
"a" seems to be irrelevant, except to say that there must be "something" larger than m.

Since I see no irrational value of m that can't exist, then I suppose a should be infinity.


And then you can argue over whether one infinity is larger than another via the squeeze rule, etc.

Of course, I could be wrong. Like I said, it's been a while since I did formal math.
A)
No there is a def answer.
BTW these are fractions

51/101
50/99
51/100
52/101
13/25
#173 Nea.
Is there any explanations of what the colors represent?
Jesse
Quoting chimera245:


Consider that a slope of 1/2 would imply an intercept at (2,3) (y = (0.5 * 2) 2), the next intercept with a slope > 0.5 would be (1,3). Rearranging to m = (y - 2) / x gives:

m = (3 - 2) / 1

therefore max value of a is 1.
Already see a flaw in your math "m" has to be more than 50 and "a" has to be more than "m". Btw by that I mean like 51/100.
Quoting chimera245:


Consider that a slope of 1/2 would imply an intercept at (2,3) (y = (0.5 * 2) + 2), the next intercept with a slope > 0.5 would be (1,3). Rearranging to m = (y - 2) / x gives:

m = (3 - 2) / 1

therefore max value of a is 1.


Ok, he wants the line to never pass through a lattice point between 0 < X < 100.

If m is rational and between 100 and 1/100, then the line will always pass through a lattice point, eventually.

Looks to me like things are slow on this blog today.
Well, here is what is going on right here.
And IT AINT SLOW.....

I edited my original quick answer - I *think* this is what you are looking for:

Starting with the slope at 0.5, you get intercepts at (2,3), (4,4), (6,5), generally up to ((n-2)*2,n).

Given that your limit of x (n-2)*2 is 100, then the largest one of these intercepts is where n = 52, i.e (100,52).

Moving m upwards moves the x value to the left, so our next intercept point would be (99,52) - this is the limit for m. Back substituting this point using:

m = (y - 2) / x

Gives me

m = (52 - 2) / 99

or 50/99

So I get m < 50/99

Or am I missing something?
Quoting chimera245:
I edited my original quick answer - I *think* this is what you are looking for:

Starting with the slope at 0.5, you get intercepts at (2,3), (4,4), (6,5), generally up to ((n-2)*2,n).

Given that your limit of x (n-2)*2 is 100, then the largest one of these intercepts is where n = 52, i.e (100,52).

Moving m upwards moves the x value to the left, so our next intercept point would be (99,52) - this is the limit for m. Back substituting this point using:

m = (y - 2) / x

Gives me

m = (52 - 2) / 99

or 50/99

So I get m < 50/99

Or am I missing something?
I love you. (Net hug)
For all you guys that tried to help me. THANK YOU. Means a lot that you guys will take time to help me.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
For all you guys that tried to help me. THANK YOU. Means a lot that you guys will take time to help me.

No Problem.
Anytime!

:):))
Quoting TheoJesse:
#173 Nea.
Is there any explanations of what the colors represent?
Jesse
Yes. Those show ice concentration. Lime green denotes land; solid blue is open water (0% ice). The rest of the colors range from blues and greens (thinner ice) to yellows, reds, and magentas (thicker ice).
I just got on here to get away from math homework, and guess what I see? COMPLICATED MATH!!!! ARRRRGH!!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I just got on here to get away from math homework, and guess what I see? COMPLICATED MATH!!!! ARRRRGH!!!!
Lol what grade you in? Im a freshman.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol what grade you in? Im a freshman.


Junior.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Junior.
So got collages in mind?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So got collages in mind?


Penn State, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Florida State, and Oklahoma.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Penn State, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Florida State, and Oklahoma.
Got a letter from Miami today lol. I am planning if I can keep my grades up to go to Rice, Emory, or UGA.
196. j2008
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Penn State, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Florida State, and Oklahoma.
Ha you got a few options there.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A lattice point in an xy-coordinate systems is any point (x,y) where x and y are both integers. The
graph of y = mx + 2 passes through no lattice point with 0 < x < (or equal to 100) for all m such that 1/2< m < a .
What is the maximum possible value of a?


Sry had to re-type that.
DEATH BY MATH JK. Your doing that and your a freshman? Wow what type of math is that? , (Havnt seen that stuff yet in my HS life)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
12:00 PM FST February 7 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 20.0S 171.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 18 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands trying to trap around the low level circulation center. System lies south of 250 HPA ridge axis. Outflow good to the north and east. System lies in a low to moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.9 wrap

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeastward with decreasing intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.2S 168.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.8S 165.0W - 40 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Ok, I can prove intuitively that the limit really is infinity.

The question placed no conditions on the value of y, except that the line never passes through a lattice point, which is to say y and x cannot both be integers at the same time.

so, for example:

y = mx - 2, 0 < x < 100, and (1 / 2) < m < a.

if m = pi, then no lattice point will ever be crossed for any x = / = 0, and m > 0.5.


And now, if we replace "m" with some function of pi, such as 2 * pi, 3 * pi, 4 * pi, etc, none of those will ever cross a lattice point either.

Infact, for n * pi as n approaches infinity, the line will also never cross any lattice point.


So a has no maximum limit except "infinity".

m does have a MINIMUM limit which is infinitesmally close to 1/2, but only because he defined 1 / 2 < m. A has a minimum limit infinitesmally close to m.


There are an infinite number of values for m which do not violate any of the conditions as they were given in the problem.

Edit:

Wow.

This site really doesn't handle basic mathematics symbols very well. HTML and scripting languages use the less than and greater than and slashes for tags and interupts and the script can't handle it.


P.S.

Your teacher/boss and your text book answer key can be wrong.

Happens all the time in college and at work.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
For all you guys that tried to help me. THANK YOU. Means a lot that you guys will take time to help me.


u shoulda googled it lol
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So got collages in mind?



NCSU WOLFPACK!!!!
Quoting j2008:
Ha you got a few options there. DEATH BY MATH JK. Your doing that and your a freshman? Wow what type of math is that? , (Havnt seen that stuff yet in my HS life)

Read this if your interested to tired to explain. Link
Quoting RTSplayer:
The question placed no conditions on the value of y,


I *think* I replied correctly with 50/99.

While it is true that given infinite x there will always be an intercept, the question was actually given:

0 < x <= 100

and

1/2 < m < ??


It's been a few years since A Level maths for me - but I'm fairly certain my argument is correct :)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (955 hPa) located at 17.4S 163.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly over the past 6 hours with eye forming. System remains in a region of upper diffluence enhanced by a short-wave trough just to the west. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east southeast by strong west-northwest steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on dg eye with lg surround

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Models generally agree on an east southeastward movement in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 18.7S 165.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.6S 168.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 22.9S 171.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Quoting chimera245:


I *think* I replied correctly with 50/99.

While it is true that given infinite x there will always be an intercept, the question was actually given:

0 < x <= 100

and

1/2 < m < ??


It's been a few years since A Level maths for me - but I'm fairly certain my argument is correct :)
You are correct sir.
204. j2008
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Read this if your interested to tired to explain. Link
Ahh I see, cant wait for that(sarcasm)
Quoting j2008:
Ahh I see, cant wait for that(sarcasm)
Most likley you will not experience this type of equation in your life but if you do, I am proud of you.
Quoting SPLbeater:


u shoulda googled it lol


NCSU WOLFPACK!!!!

Yup, that's where I'm gonna try to go.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You are correct sir.


Like I said, problem must be worded wrong.

There's an infinite number of values for m which meet the criteria, and they range from 1/2 to infinity.

In what you wrote, "a" is never given a definition except that it is some value larger than m.


m = "pi raised to the googleplex power".

it will not hit a lattice point ANYWHERE except 0 = x, but since you defined 0 < x, that isn't a problem.

The only limit you placed on "a" is that it is greater than m, but wait...


m = "pi raised to the googleplex raised to the googleplex"

Also never hits a lattice point, etc.


This is the first week of Calculus 101...or maybe pre-calculus if you take it in high school.

m is a coefficient, which in this case is the slope.

But by the substitution rule, m could be anything. It could be a real number, it could be irrational, it could be another function, etc.
My first try with Windows Live Movie Maker. Half way through I realized that I was using visible imagery, meaning everything that happened during the nighttime hours is not shown. Oh well...I'll correct it another time. :P

Quoting RTSplayer:


Like I said, problem must be worded wrong.

There's an infinite number of values for m which meet the criteria, and they range from 1/2 to infinity.

In what you wrote, "a" is never given a definition except that it is some value larger than m.


m = "pi raised to the googleplex power".

it will not hit a lattice point ANYWHERE except 0 = x, but since you defined 0 < x, that isn't a problem.

The only limit you placed on "a" is that it is greater than m, but wait...


m = "pi raised to the googleplex raised to the googleplex"

Also never hits a lattice point, etc.


This is the first week of Calculus 101...or maybe pre-calculus if you take it in high school.

m is a coefficient, which in this case is the slope.

But by the substitution rule, m could be anything. It could be a real number, it could be irrational, it could be another function, etc.
Well I take AP Geomitry so this is a bit off the trail. Plus I gave it to you how it was worded. Also if you look down I gave you guys 5 possible answers.

50/99 is one of them.
210. j2008
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Most likley you will not experience this type of equation in your life but if you do, I am proud of you.
Like most math above Algebra LOL, unneeded.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yup, that's where I'm gonna try to go.


i hear they have a very good meteorlology class. and a good football team!!!
Quoting RTSplayer:


Like I said, problem must be worded wrong.

There's an infinite number of values for m which meet the criteria, and they range from 1/2 to infinity.

In what you wrote, "a" is never given a definition except that it is some value larger than m.


m = "pi raised to the googleplex power".

it will not hit a lattice point ANYWHERE except 0 = x, but since you defined 0 < x, that isn't a problem.

The only limit you placed on "a" is that it is greater than m, but wait...


m = "pi raised to the googleplex raised to the googleplex"

Also never hits a lattice point, etc.


This is the first week of Calculus 101...or maybe pre-calculus if you take it in high school.

m is a coefficient, which in this case is the slope.

But by the substitution rule, m could be anything. It could be a real number, it could be irrational, it could be another function, etc.


Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well I take AP Geomitry so this is a bit off the trail. Plus I gave it to you how it was worded. Also if you look down I gave you guys 5 possible answers.

50/99 is one of them.


I'm only in Trig and I only have a C in the class.... Too busy messing with girls in the back row to pay much attention....LOL
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You are correct sir.


50/99 wouldn't be a valid answer. If x is 99, then you wind up with (50/99)*99 = 50.

The first fraction to meet the criteria for m would be 51/101. This is guaranteed to give fractional results over the integer x range as 101 is a prime and greater than the specified range for x.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




I'm only in Trig and I only have a C+ in the class.... Too busy messing with the girls in the back row to pay much attention....LOL


another good reason why i am homeschooled. i get better grades because i am not distracted by some cute girl. lol(used to happen ALOT)
Quoting SPLbeater:


another good reason why i am homeschooled. i get better grades because i am not distracted by some cute girl. lol(used to happen ALOT)


I feel sorry for you dude.... You are missing the best part of your life....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I feel sorry for you dude.... You are missing the best part of your life....

LOL yeah.
Because I never get tired of these:

Quoting Xyrus2000:


50/99 wouldn't be a valid answer. If x is 99, then you wind up with (50/99)*99 = 50.

The first fraction to meet the criteria for m would be 51/101. This is guaranteed to give fractional results over the integer x range as 101 is a prime and greater than the specified range for x.
Wow, forgot the fact that I was answering for A. So yes your answer would be correct, but a can also be any number. I think the question should be what is the min not max.
hmmm...GFS forecast low to develop off NE florida, move up E seaboard. Maybe some snow for northeast CONUS...i know i wont get any lol


Quoting chimera245:


I *think* I replied correctly with 50/99.

While it is true that given infinite x there will always be an intercept, the question was actually given:

0 < x <= 100

and

1/2 < m < ??


It's been a few years since A Level maths for me - but I'm fairly certain my argument is correct :)
Quoting chimera245:
I edited my original quick answer - I *think* this is what you are looking for:

Starting with the slope at 0.5, you get intercepts at (2,3), (4,4), (6,5), generally up to ((n-2)*2,n).

Given that your limit of x (n-2)*2 is 100, then the largest one of these intercepts is where n = 52, i.e (100,52).

Moving m upwards moves the x value to the left, so our next intercept point would be (99,52) - this is the limit for m. Back substituting this point using:

m = (y - 2) / x

Gives me

m = (52 - 2) / 99

or 50/99

So I get m < 50/99

Or am I missing something?


The Domain, which is the values of X, are not dependent on the value of m, except to say that x and y cannot both be integers at the same time.

This:

m = (y - 2) / x

Gives me

m = (52 - 2) / 99

or 50/99

So I get m < 50/99




is arbitrary and is not "the" solution, because all you did was plug in arbitrary numbers for x and y, and incorrectly claim that this must be the value of m.

all I have to do to prove your solution wrong is prove that there is at least one solution where m is greater than 50/99 on the domain for 0 < x <= 100, which I already proved there are an infinite number of them.

If you don't believe me, get a graphic calculator and plug it in, or ask a college mathematics professor.


The question, as worded, does not say what either of you think it says.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




I'm only in Trig and I only have a C in the class.... Too busy messing with girls in the back row to pay much attention....LOL
Ppppfffttt slacker.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Like I said, problem must be worded wrong.

There's an infinite number of values for m which meet the criteria, and they range from 1/2 to infinity.

In what you wrote, "a" is never given a definition except that it is some value larger than m.


m = "pi raised to the googleplex power".

it will not hit a lattice point ANYWHERE except 0 = x, but since you defined 0 < x, that isn't a problem.

The only limit you placed on "a" is that it is greater than m, but wait...


m = "pi raised to the googleplex raised to the googleplex"

Also never hits a lattice point, etc.


This is the first week of Calculus 101...or maybe pre-calculus if you take it in high school.

m is a coefficient, which in this case is the slope.

But by the substitution rule, m could be anything. It could be a real number, it could be irrational, it could be another function, etc.


The variable m is given as a range though, so it cannot have an upper bound of infinity since there are plenty of numbers between 1/2 and infinity that can yield integer values for y.

I agree though, there seems to be some missing criteria in the problem. My previous post showed the next highest fraction for m (assuming integer numerators and denominators) that guaranteed non-integer y's, but that isn't the maximum bound. The maximum bound (strictly keeping to integers) would be 100/101, as there is no x in 0 < x < 100 that would yield an integer y. Since 101 is a prime, there is no chance for a reduction to a lower denominator that otherwise potentially yield an integer when being multiplied by x.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I feel sorry for you dude.... You are missing the best part of your life....


well, so far i havin no problems. besides, i get to go outside in the early morning to play with the puppy. which actually turns out to a situation where i am trying to get my arm out of its mouth, keep her claws off me and search for safe ground LOL
Grothar.... I know you are out there....
Quoting SPLbeater:
hmmm...GFS forecast low to develop off NE florida, move up E seaboard. Maybe some snow for northeast CONUS...i know i wont get any lol



Actually...

"IF PCP LASTS INTO SAT NIGHT MAY HAVE CONCERN FOR MIXED PCP AS
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE IT IN."
Quoting SPLbeater:


well, so far i havin no problems. besides, i get to go outside in the early morning to play with the puppy. which actually turns out to a situation where i am trying to get my arm out of its mouth, keep her claws off me and search for safe ground LOL


Puppy < Girls..... But girls like puppies so that is a plus.... Just trying to give some advice as someone 3 years ahead of you on the High School timeframe...lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Grothar.... I know you are out there....


he hasnt hid from us for the last 4,378 years he been here..why hide now??
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow, forgot the fact that I was answering for A. So yes your answer would be correct, but a can also be any number. I think the question should be what is the min not max.


You're right, I needed to take the ray to the first x value OUTSIDE the range - not the last inside.

The algorithm therefore being take the ray out to (102,53) - move one to the left (101,53) - giving

m = (53 - 2) / 101

or 51 / 101

It has been 26 years since I last did maths formally lol.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Puppy < Girls..... But girls like puppies so that is a plus.... Just trying to give some advice as someone 3 years ahead of you on the High School timeframe...lol

but puppies don't whine and complain and argue about stupid stuff. They don't worry about how they look or talk back or anything. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Actually...

"IF PCP LASTS INTO SAT NIGHT MAY HAVE CONCERN FOR MIXED PCP AS
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE IT IN."


for NC? no...lol no....did you write that? *thinks hard*
231. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but puppies don't whine and complain and argue about stupid stuff. They don't worry about how they look or talk back or anything. :P
LOL!!! So true.
Quoting SPLbeater:


for NC? no...lol no....did you write that? *thinks hard*

Nope.

National Weather Service Wilmington, NC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but puppies don't whine and complain and argue about stupid stuff. They don't worry about how they look or talk back or anything. :P


lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope.

National Weather Service Wilmington, NC.


was Sanford inclued in that? i hope not...i dont care for snow like most people. i like THUNDER, and LIGHTING, and HEAVY DOWNPOURS, and MODERATELY-HIGH WINDSPEEDS...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but puppies don't whine and complain and argue about stupid stuff. They don't worry about how they look or talk back or anything. :P


But puppies can't....... never mind this is a weather blog and it needs to stay PG.....lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but puppies don't whine and complain and argue about stupid stuff. They don't worry about how they look or talk back or anything. :P

Actually I'm not sure 51/101 is a solution.

51/101 is an intercept at (102,53) - which is outside the given range.

I therefore return to 50/99 as the valid solution as the limit, i.e.

1/2 < m < 50/99
You could say i am talking about the weather right now. because if there was a thunderstorm outside i would most likely be talking about a diffferent subject(like lighting) and so therefore the WEATHER influenced my topic, and that has atleast 1% weather talk!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


this is a weather blog and it needs to stay PG.....lol


Don't tempt me. ;)
240. j2008
Quoting SPLbeater:
You could say i am talking about the weather right now. because if there was a thunderstorm outside i would most likely be talking about a diffferent subject(like lighting) and so therefore the WEATHER influenced my topic, and that has atleast 1% weather talk!
What? You dont think that girls and puppys are weather related? LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't tempt me. ;)


You can't do anything with a puppy in the back of a movie theater or your basement or behind the trailers behind the school..... 'Nuff said.
GF is really aggitating me right now. She is in the same class as me BTW. So I ask her, "Have you figured out the answer to number #5 yet? Cant figure it out for the life of me." Her responce, "Im not your answer book figure it out yourself!" translated "I dont have the answer but I'm not going to admit it." Well goodnight everyone.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


But puppies can't....... never mind this is a weather blog and it needs to stay PG.....lol


Well maybe not puppies...
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The variable m is given as a range though, so it cannot have an upper bound of infinity since there are plenty of numbers between 1/2 and infinity that can yield integer values for y


Yes, of course I know that, but just skip those values of m.

There will always be a larger irrational value for m which does not intersect a lattice point, which is why I picked the ridiculous "m = n * pi" expression to illustrate it, because it never produces a rational number and fulfills all the requirements for "m" in the original expression.

I could have as easily said "m = n * e" as well.


So we can express an infinite number of FAMILIES for the value of m which meet all the criteria and easily exceed 50/99...

and you are correct, 50/99 isn't a solution anyway, since it intersects a lattice.
Quoting j2008:
What? You dont think that girls and puppys are weather related? LOL


oh they are perfectly weather related...u know, cuz the humidity decides how the girl does her hair, and weather or not to take some pink rain boots to school, or to bring the hello-kitty jacket just in case...ROFL
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You can't do anything with a puppy in the back of a movie theater or your basement or behind the trailers behind the school..... 'Nuff said.


I'm temped to go much further. But I probably shouldn't.
OOGALEY BOOGALEY!!!
Quoting chimera245:
Actually I'm not sure 51/101 is a solution.

51/101 is an intercept at (102,53) - which is outside the given range.

I therefore return to 50/99 as the valid solution as the limit, i.e.

1/2 < m < 50/99


The range was for x though (0< x< 100). The y range limits were not specified. There also wasn't any sort of range specified for particular intercepts.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first try with Windows Live Movie Maker. Half way through I realized that I was using visible imagery, meaning everything that happened during the nighttime hours is not shown. Oh well...I'll correct it another time. :P



i just thought of something....is that your youtube channel there?
250. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm temped to go much further. But I probably shouldn't.
Might be some little kids lurking around, so I'm gonna say keep it on the PG side.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm temped to go much further. But I probably shouldn't.


*Austin Powers* Oh BEHAVE, baby!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
GF is really aggitating me right now. She is in the same class as me BTW. So I ask her, "Have you figured out the answer to number #5 yet? Cant figure it out for the life of me." Her responce, "Im not your answer book figure it out yourself!" translated "I dont have the answer but I'm not going to admit it." Well goodnight everyone.


I get that all the time.....
I know SPLbeater has me on ignore, but someone tell him he needs to watch the dog whisperer. Be calm and assertive. He should take the dog running. It would be good for both of them. (true)

The followup reminds me of another truth: What is the difference between a dog and a woman? If you lock them both up in the garage and leave, when you get back the dog will be happy to see you.
Quoting bappit:
I know SPLbeater has me on ignore, but someone tell him he needs to watch the dog whisperer. Be calm and assertive. He should take the dog running. It would be good for both of them. (true)

The followup reminds me of another truth: What is the difference between a dog and a woman? If you lock them both up in the garage and leave, when you get back the dog will be happy to see you.


SPL^^^^^ right there. And ROTFL TRUE!!!!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


*Austin Powers* Oh BEHAVE, baby!


teehee
Quoting WxGeekVA:


SPL^^^^^ right there. And ROTFL TRUE!!!!


the pup is a 15 month old, 65 pounds of muscle. ever since we got her i ran around all day outside with her, and she has tackeld me 3 times SOLO. jumping up behind me while i was running, and tangling my ankles lol. bappit not on ignore no mo
257. j2008
Well I'm out, Everyone behave, dont make me call Grothar in here!
Just watch, after a February disturbance we won't get our first named storm until August, lol.
259. wxmod
From the Guardian News: "A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research."
You can read the article here: Link
Well, I'm out.
AmyRochelleColon, when will you come out from hiding?!
Good Night.
Dont blow your speakers.

Link

THX Bass test. notes vary from about 80Hz to 20Hz
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The range was for x though (0< x< 100). The y range limits were not specified. There also wasn't any sort of range specified for particular intercepts.


Thats my point, an M limit of 51/101 implies an intercept at (101,53) - which is outside the 0 < x < 100 range.

I've rechecked my logic and I believe it's sound. If 0 < x <= 100 I believe the limit to be 50/99.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Just watch, after a February disturbance we won't get our first named storm until August, lol.


It very well could happen!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Well, I'm out.
AmyRochelleColon, when will you come out from hiding?!
Good Night.


i have wondered from day 1 who the heck AmyRochelleColon is....plussing comments, never says a word lol...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Because I never get tired of these:


Nea.
The lights I could watch for hours. As a kid, my grandmother talked about the Northern light. I spent many sleepless nights looking for them.
The charts indicate far less sea ice for now as referenced to last year. This troubles me. According to info. I have gathered and put together, Global temps will increase for 3 or 4 more years from 2011 before it starts cooling again. This cycle will not help the Arctic ice.
The information I have will not be discussed before it is reviewed by the climate science community. All I have to do is find and inroad.
Jesse
well i gtg be back tomorrow morning every 1 BEHAVE WELL and make sure you dont get carried away lol bye bye night night!!
Quoting j2008:
What? You dont think that girls and puppys are weather related? LOL

only weather related if it's raining cats and dogs (mild rain is puppies and kittens) as for the girls i seem to remember something about rain making T-shirts wet? ........back to lurking
Quoting Neapolitan:
Because I never get tired of these:



Robert Service (1874-1958)

The Cremation of Sam McGee

There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.
Dr. Masters I'm a big fan of your work- keep it up!

I posted a blog entry about the AO and this warm winter last week. I know you (and the commenters here) have a strong science background; my goal is to reach out to those with little to no science knowledge, so hopefully I didn't gloss over too many details.

Check it out here: The J Farmer's Almanac

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Robert Service (1874-1958)

The Cremation of Sam McGee

There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.

Shen
You need to stay over at Orca's
Jesse
Quoting wxmod:
From the Guardian News: "A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research."
You can read the article here: Link



Does anyone comprehend, for just a small glimpse of a moment, just how much reflective aerosols are needed to offset the present day CO2 level's forcing?



This is the volume curve for arctic sea ice.

Notice, in 1991, Pinatubo erupted as a VEI 6, and then this was followed by a rebound peak of just 1400km^3 the following year. Now pinatubo didn't just put cubic miles worth of vaporized rock into the air as aerosols, it also deposited iron into the oceans which deflected the keeling curve SLIGHTLY downward for about 2 years, but the curve still never went neutral, nevermind negative.

Then, a few years later, Montsurat erupted as a VEI 5, followed by another rebound peak in 1996.

But in both cases the rebound IMMEDIATELY fell off within one to four years as bad or worse than it started off.

Why?

Because it doesn't address the problem, which is the greenhouse effect.

The aerosols eventually break down, rather quickly actually, due to radiation or chemistry and then you're back on target within a few years.


Now that was when CO2 was 30 to 40 PPM lower, or about 70 to 80PPM above natural.

Now we are around 110PPM above natural.

Imagine how much aeresol you'd need to try to offset that excess GHG for just one year?

Well, you need something the size of Pinatubo just to offset it for ONE year,maybe two years, and then the next year it will be back on pace again anyway.


You'd need to spray GIGATONS of Sulfur Dioxide into the atmosphere, above what nature and man already do, and of course you need to make sure you also don't make more greenhouse gases than it's worth in the process of doing so.

In short, you need a VEI 6 eruption about every 2 years in order to stabilize the climate...that is, if we also QUIT making excess CO2...


The net forcing right now due to CO2 and positive albedo feedback is an insane 0.5 watts per square meter averaged for the entire planet.

After 1 year that comes to 8E21 Joules, which, by the way, comes to the energy equivalent of 22,365 of the 1883 Krakatoa eruptions per year.


The pathetic attempt to fly a few jumbo jets around and spray some SO2 isn't going to matter.

You'd have to make entire cities of nothing but factories literally burning sulfur for no reason other than to inject it into the atmosphere just to ever break even, and it still doesn't solve the problem because then you'd be poisoning the air AND the CO2 will still keep getting worse every year anyway.

I mean just go look at some video of Pinatubo and all the gas and rock it ejected, and it barely even made a dent...for one freakin year, and then the melt curve rebounded twice as bad afterwards.

Correction:

0.5 watts is the forcing that comes from CO2 alone, and does not count Methane or positive albedo feedback.

the total forcing is actually close to 2 watts.
AmyRochelle will not come out from hiding
.They never seem to.They don't plus my comments so as of now I don't care.Night all.
the last 3 TCR of the Eastern North pacific came out Fernanda peak at 60knts,Jovaat 110 and Kenneth 125
Quoting TheoJesse:

Shen
You need to stay over at Orca's
Jesse

Fraid I'll scare the chilren? ;)
Tepco Injects Boric Acid Into Reactor as Temperatures Rise
February 06, 2012, 10:41 PM EST



By Tsuyoshi Inajima
(Updates with comment from professor in fourth paragraph.)

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Electric Power Co. injected boric acid into a reactor at its crippled Fukushima nuclear plant to prevent an accidental chain reaction known as re- criticality after temperatures rose in the past week.

The temperature of the No. 2 reactor was 70.1 degrees Celsius (158 degrees Fahrenheit) as of 6 a.m. today, according to preliminary data, Akitsuka Kobayashi, a spokesman for the utility, said by phone. The reading fell from 72.2 degrees at 5 a.m. this morning, and is below the 93 degrees that’s used to define a cold shutdown, or safe state, of the reactor.

Since Feb. 1, temperatures at the bottom of the No. 2 reactor vessel have risen by more than 20 degrees Celsius, according to the company’s data. Tepco, as the utility is known, and the government announced that the Fukushima plant reached a cold shutdown on Dec. 16, nine months after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami wrecked the nuclear station, and caused three reactors to meltdown and release radiation.

“It was too early to say the plant is safe in December. They declared cold shutdown even though nobody is sure about the location of melted fuel,” Tetsuo Ito, the head of the Atomic Energy Research Institute at Kinki University in western Japan. “A similar incident will probably occur again.”

Tepco increased the rate of cooling water being injected into the unit to 13.5 cubic meters per hour from 10.5 cubic meters per hour at 4:24 a.m. today, it said. A cold shutdown describes a reactor’s cooling system operating at atmospheric pressure and below 93 degrees Celsius, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Dilemma

“Tepco is in a dilemma,” Ito said. As Tepco maintains water injection at a high rate, more radioactive water will be accumulated in the basements of plant buildings, he said.

About 95,000 cubic meters, which is enough to fill 38 Olympic-sized swimming pools, of highly radioactive water may still be in the basements, even after the company has processed more than 220,000 cubic meters of contaminated water, according to Tepco’s latest estimate on Feb. 1.

Tepco replaced coolant piping on Jan. 26 to improve reliability of equipment following water leaks caused by freezing temperatures, Taichi Okazaki, a spokesman for the utility, said by phone today. This may have led to insufficient cooling water reaching inside the reactor, according to Tepco.

Water Leaks

Tepco found a total of 28 water leaks between Jan. 28 and Feb. 3, according to the utility. The average temperature in Namie town near the wrecked plant in January was 0.5 degrees Celsius, compared with the 2.1 degrees Celsius January average between 1981 and 2010, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s data.

No traces of xenon 135, which is associated with nuclear fission, were found when Tepco conducted a gas sampling of the reactor yesterday, the company said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday.

In November, Tepco said it detected xenon, signs of nuclear fission, in gases taken from the No. 2 reactor, raising concerns that radiation emissions may increase. Tepco later announced the xenon was caused by “natural” nuclear fission and the plant isn’t in a critical state.

--Editors: Teo Chian Wei, Peter Langan

To contact the reporter on this story: Tsuyoshi Inajima in Tokyo at tinajima@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Langan at plangan@bloomberg.net
276. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:



Does anyone comprehend, for just a small glimpse of a moment, just how much reflective aerosols are needed to offset the present day CO2 level's forcing?



This is the volume curve for arctic sea ice.

Notice, in 1991, Pinatubo erupted as a VEI 6, and then this was followed by a rebound peak of just 1400km^3 the following year. Now pinatubo didn't just Pinatubo and all the gas and rock it ejected, and it barely even made a dent...for one freakin year, and then the melt curve rebounded twice as bad afterwards.

Correction:

0.5 watts is the forcing that comes from CO2 alone, and does not count Methane or positive albedo feedback.

the total forcing is actually close to 2 watts.


Volcanoes do not inject all their volume right into the stratosphere. Cleverly placed welsbach materials burned along with jet fuel at over 30000 feet can do the job fairly cheaply. This is not mystery science. You see contrails expanding and filling up the sky every time there is upwelling air; pre-frontal. Jet fuel contains aluminum oxide which makes it burn more explosively. It just takes a little extra aluminum and you are geoengineering.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Fraid I'll scare the chilren? ;)

Your probably right. Talk to you later.
Jesse
Scientists mystified by largest dolphin stranding in northeast U.S. in 20 years
Posted on February 6, 2012

February 6, 2012 – MASSACHUSETTS – Nearly 130 dolphins have beached themselves on Cape Cod in the last three weeks, with 92 dying in what’s become “the single largest stranding” in at least two decades in the Northeast, the International Fund for Animal Welfare reported Monday. On Sunday, four more dolphins were stranded along Cape Cod’s hook-shaped peninsula and were quickly helped back to sea. The Massachusetts peninsula sees many dolphin strandings each year, but the 129 since Jan. 12 is typically about what rescuers see over an entire year, based on records that go back to 1999, IFAW marine mammal rescue manager Katie Moore told msnbc.com. “This event started on the 12th and is still continuing,” she added at a press conference on Monday, noting that rescuers from IFAW and other stranding networks were deployed in “anticipation of more dolphins coming in this afternoon.” Most of the dolphins have appeared to be in good health, adding to the mystery of why so many have come ashore. Dolphins are known to strand in groups due to their tight social structure, but given the large numbers this year, other factors such as weather and tides are being investigated. “I don’t know,” Moore said when asked about causes. “It pains me to say those three words.” Asked if climate change might be a factor, Moore said she couldn’t rule that out or in. As for the possibility of sonar or other human-made sounds disrupting the dolphins, she said no known sources existed inside Cape Cod. Initial results of studies on nine of the dead dolphins “do not indicate any pattern,” she noted. This stranding “is not only out of the ordinary,” she said, “but it takes a huge toll on our resources. It’s hard labor.” -MSNBC
Interesting comment to this post.....

SFP of reactor 3 and reactor 5 are heated as well
Posted by Mochizuki on February 5th, 2012 · 6 Comments

Following up this article ..Attention : Reactor 2 is still being heated
It’s not only reactor 2, which is being heated.
According to the plant parameter data of Tepco, the temperature of reactor 3 has been increasing since 1/30/2012.
Also, the temperature of reactor 5 has been going up since 2/4/2012. So far, no explanation has been given from Tepco or Japanese government.



PhilipUpNorth says:
February 6, 2012 at 2:30 pm


Lori Mochizuki, Many thanks for your wonderful and needful reporting of the Fukushima crime against humanity, perpetrated by the nuclear power industry. My heart goes out to you and to all the people of your homeland for your trouble. I saw your video, and am relieved that you are now in Europe, which is slightly more safe than Japan. I hope you feel better soon, and hope that the radiation you were exposed to in Japan has caused you little permanent harm. Know that you are now a part of a historic Japanese Diaspora, the widescale abandonment of the Japanese homeland in the aftermath of the poisoning of Japan by Temco and their appologists in the Japanese government. Thanks to you Japanese for your many contributions to civilization over the thousands of years of your history. And good fortune to you and your countrymen as you begin to abandon your poisoned homeland en masse to seek a new life throughout less poisoned parts of the earth. I will send you a contribution as soon as the employment situation improves here in the USA. Much love to you in the meantime.

Of course, there will be no “cold shutdown” at Fukushima. Temperatures will continue to go up and down as criticalities come and go. Removal of the former corium and cooling pools is now impossible. The reactors need to be filled with concrete. The containments need to be filled with concrete. The reactor buildings need to be filled with concrete. The tunnels to the generator buildings need to be filled with concrete. The spent fuel pools need to be filled with concrete. New tunnels need to be dug under the reactor buildings, down to or below the water table, and filled with concrete one tunnel after another, until there is as much concrete under the reactor buildings as the reactors were tall. The gravel that went into the concrete to build those new apartment buildings should have gone instead into the casket that will house those former reactor buildings. There is plenty of contaminated gravel in Fukushima to make the concrete to entomb these reactors.

All other atomic power plants worldwide should get the same treatment. Put a big scull and crossed bones on the caskets to warn future generations against the use of atomic energy. We should all resolve to begin to live more simply, with less need for power. We should all begin to use wind, water, and solar for the energy we need. We must bring fuel cell technologies into our homes as backup for wind and solar. No nukes, ever. No new nukes! Let’s do this. It’s the right thing to do.
89 sieverts per hour measured in soil near Columbia River in Washington — Worst contamination just feet from groundwater

Published: February 6th, 2012 at 2:11 pm ET
By ENENews

Title: Plan developed to clean up highly radioactive Hanford spill
Source: Tri-City Herald
Author: By Annette Cary
Date: Feb 6, 2012

Hanford officials have settled on a plan to clean up what may be the most highly radioactive spill at the nuclear reservation.

It depends on calling back into service the 47-year-old, oversized hot cell where the spill occurred to protect workers from the radioactive cesium and strontium that leaked through the hot cell to the soil below.

Radioactivity in the contaminated soil, which is about 1,000 feet from the Columbia River, has been measured at 8,900 rad per hour [89 sieverts per hour]. Direct exposure for a few minutes would be fatal, according to Washington Closure. [...]

In the 1980s, cesium and strontium spilled inside the hot cell, according to a 1993 report that referenced the spill. Germany needed a heat source to use for tests of a repository for radioactive waste, which emits heat, and the cesium and strontium were being fabricated into the sources.

“This was concentrated material,” said Mark French, the Department of Energy’s project director for Hanford cleanup along the Columbia River. [...]

It migrated down in a open square shape, with the worst contamination down to five or six feet deep, McBride said. There is not evidence that it has reached the ground water which is about 54 feet below the ground there and about 42 feet below the bottom of the hot cell [...]
Quoting Patrap:Patrap
With my educational background Japan might be dealing with more than they can handle. I also see problems on our west coast. This is my opinion so deal with as you see fit.
Jesse
Title: 6.20 microSv/h, Kashiwa High School, bicycle parking lot
Source: Birdhairjp
Date: Feb 6, 2012


On 5 Feb 2012, I measured radiation around Kashiwa High School, Kashiwa city, Chiba pref. Japan.

The monitor indicates 0.29 micro Sievert per hour in air at chest height, 6.20 on road side near a bicycle parking lot for students.

The monitoring place is approx. 200 km from Fukushima Nuclear power plant, and 25 or 30 km for the center of Tokyo.
Measuring instrument is made of Ukraine, ECOTEST MKS-05.



Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!! Not another PacNW non-summer!


Quoting nofailsafe:
While Punxsutawny Phil predicts six more weeks of Winter, CPC's CFSv2 predicts at least 4-6 more months of La Nina.

Weekly ENSO Update 6. February 2012
Patrap
I don't know how comment #281 comment came out looking like it did, but I apoligize. Maybe too many mist.
Jesse
Quoting WxGeekVA:




I'm only in Trig and I only have a C in the class.... Too busy messing with girls in the back row to pay much attention....LOL


Man, Trig? Those were the good old days LOL, where I used to do some home work and skip the rest, study for a little while before tests and finish with an A. I'm in Calculus with analytic geometry 3 this semester, and the tests are freaking intense despite me doing all the homework.

I got a C in Calc 2 because I was often choking under stress and pressure during tests repeatedly even though I did well in the homework and studied plenty. Calculus 3 is stuff like vector calculus and 3 dimensional analysis, somehow its even more terrifying than Calc 2, yet interesting at the same time because there is a lot of high level science application that is very useful.
But by probability theory all the questions should have answers. And if you did not got it by yourself, go to hahaped
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 18.5S 164.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 14 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly over the past 12 hours with eye forming. System remains in a region of upper diffluence enhanced by a trough just to the west. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east-southeast by strong west northwest steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye with lg surround

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Models generally agree on an east southeastward movement in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 19.3S 167.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.5S 169.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.6S 172.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
===================================

* A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 21.4S 169.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 22 knots. Position fair based on GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. Eye evident in past visible imagery has become cloud filled in last 6 hours. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicates the system lies in a low to moderately sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C and expected to decrease on projected path.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models maintains a southeast movement without further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.4S 165.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 27.2S 160.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

*note no more special weather warnings will be issued for Niue
Morning all, especially HGW... I see Jasmine hasn't changed much in terms of foward direction... this is like a worst case scenario for Fiji and the other archipelagos near it. This compares to a storm coming up the Bahamas from SE to NW, hitting all the islands on its way. I just hope Jasmine doesn't strengthen anymore.



This is from the Fiji Met Service website, and gives a closer look @ Jasmine's forecast track. It's not as bad as it looks on the wunderground map.... due to scale, I'd say. Luckily current Cyril was a mere disturbance as it passed through this area last week, though it did seem to bring quite a bit of rain with it.


Looks like the Solomons and Vanuatu are going to get the worst of this over the next 24 hours....
Vanuatu braces for Cyclone Jasmine
Weather forecasters say a cyclone heading towards Vanuatu may pass close to shore and not hit the country directly.

A yellow cyclone alert is in force ahead of the cyclone's arrival on Tuesday night.

But Neville Koop from the Nadraki weather office in Suva told Radio Australia there is uncertainty surrounding the cyclone's exact path.

"It may avoid the islands directly and stay somewhat to the west of the southern islands," he said.



Cyclone Cyril

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Cyril is north of Tonga, bringing with it strong winds.

Cyril is located about 740 kilometres east of Fiji, and heading east, south east.

It is also expected to affect flood-stricken Fiji.

A cyclone alert has been declared across most of Tonga, with high seas expected in Fiji.
What did you get in this Jeff Master? Hahaped is so much better!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Vanuatu braces for Cyclone Jasmine
Weather forecasters say a cyclone heading towards Vanuatu may pass close to shore and not hit the country directly.

A yellow cyclone alert is in force ahead of the cyclone's arrival on Tuesday night.

But Neville Koop from the Nadraki weather office in Suva told Radio Australia there is uncertainty surrounding the cyclone's exact path.

"It may avoid the islands directly and stay somewhat to the west of the southern islands," he said.



Cyclone Cyril

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Cyril is north of Tonga, bringing with it strong winds.

Cyril is located about 740 kilometres east of Fiji, and heading east, south east.

It is also expected to affect flood-stricken Fiji.

A cyclone alert has been declared across most of Tonga, with high seas expected in Fiji.


I could not see how Cyril could affect Fiji, if Cyril is 740km's east of Fiji and moving further east. For Cyril to affect Fiji it would have to travel west.

Here is what I see.
Hey, Aussie. I think they had gale warnings up for Nuie, which r now discontinued. Whatever wx Fiji was going to get from Cyril they already got. It's starting to look like they may squeak by with Jasmine, also, but we shall see.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Aussie. I think they had gale warnings up for Nuie, which r now discontinued. Whatever wx Fiji was going to get from Cyril they already got. It's starting to look like they may squeak by with Jasmine, also, but we shall see.

Yeah, they may get the outer bands but I don't think it would be a full impact.
Now that's a nice circular eye.

299:

Incredible.

Look how it jumped from 70kts sustained, straight to 100kts sustained and STUCK THERE, and the change happened within 15 minutes.

That must be some of the most rapid intensification EVER.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I could not see how Cyril could affect Fiji, if Cyril is 740km's east of Fiji and moving further east. For Cyril to affect Fiji it would have to travel west.

Here is what I see.
going to be some good surfing waves next wk latin america to peru
Quoting islander101010:
going to be some good surfing waves next wk latin america to peru

Good surf right down the east coast of Australia also.
Quoting wxmod:


Volcanoes do not inject all their volume right into the stratosphere. Cleverly placed welsbach materials burned along with jet fuel at over 30000 feet can do the job fairly cheaply. This is not mystery science. You see contrails expanding and filling up the sky every time there is upwelling air; pre-frontal. Jet fuel contains aluminum oxide which makes it burn more explosively. It just takes a little extra aluminum and you are geoengineering.


Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING ENE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE
FIVE DAY RAINFALL FORECAST TOTALS FROM HPC RANGES FROM AROUND HALF
OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST AND METRO AREAS. THIS
SOLUTION LINES UP WELL WITH THE OVERALL TOTALS FROM THE GFS MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SWRN GULF AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
OVER THE COARSE OF THE WEEKEND. UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WILL KEEP A GENERAL MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
PLACE. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
AND JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
Quoting JupiterKen:


Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.


I wouldn't want nano-scale Corundum particles in the air anyway.

Not too happy with that whole ideal of sulfuric acid and abrasive nano-particles getting in the eyes and lungs of everyone on the planet.
Quoting JupiterKen:


Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.

I think you should read this...
Quoting AussieStorm:

I think you should read this...


It has been "proposed" as an additive to mess with the atmosphere. It is not a current jet fuel additive.

Edit: Further review of the article shows many errors.
Quoting wxmod:
From the Guardian News: "A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research."
You can read the article here: Link


The fossil fuel companies must have wet their respective pants laughing at these fools.

Spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of anything 30 miles above the earth is going to require millions of tonnes of fossil fuels. And, of course, the bill will be picked up by government. Ahhhh, the free market system at its best, pocketing the profits and socializing the costs. But a carbon tax to lower demand would be too expensive for the economy and alternative sources just won't work.

If we don't change soon, the epitaph on the gravestone of humanity will read, "Died for Profits, not Wisdom".
George Noory is on the cutting edge of this...
Quoting percylives:


The fossil fuel companies must have wet their respective pants laughing at these fools.

Spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of anything 30 miles above the earth is going to require millions of tonnes of fossil fuels. And, of course, the bill will be picked up by government. Ahhhh, the free market system at its best, pocketing the profits and socializing the costs. But a carbon tax to lower demand would be too expensive for the economy and alternative sources just won't work.

If we don't change soon, the epitaph on the gravestone of humanity will read, "Died for Profits, not Wisdom".

My country, Australia, will have a Carbon Tax starting July 1, $23/tonne is the price that's been put on it.
"Skydiver to Attempt Record-Breaking Supersonic Space Jump."

Link

Current record.

Link

Link

Category 3 Jasmine, 100kt windspeeds as of 0900Z
120,000 ft drop

phew im starving..be back soon :D
Looks like Googles "Solve for X" wants us to start with a blank sheet.

Link

Link

Edit: My bad. Only a blank page shows up on IE. Works fine on FF.

Pretty cool concept!
CO2 this, CO2 that...what are they gonna do about water vapor?
Good Morning. Have lived in the Tallahassee area for 12 years now and this is the warmest Jan/Feb period we have experienced (when we have frquently had low 20's and Teens in past years). Quite the anomaly this year. Flowers blooming everywhere and the fish all confused............... :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good surf right down the east coast of Australia also.
sounds good keeps the youth busy
Quoting Bergeron:
CO2 this, CO2 that...what are they gonna do about water vapor?


If you reversed the CO2 trend and got it back to natural levels, most of the water vapor would eventually lose it's heat and condense back to natural levels. Of course, that could take several decades to stabilize.
Quoting chimera245:


Thats my point, an M limit of 51/101 implies an intercept at (101,53) - which is outside the 0 < x < 100 range.

I've rechecked my logic and I believe it's sound. If 0 < x <= 100 I believe the limit to be 50/99.


No, that is an extrapolation point. The max value for y using 51/101 as the slope is:

y = (51/101)*100+2 = 52.49504950....

As the value of 101 is prime and does not evenly divide any number 0 < x <= 100, this guarantees no integer values for y for any integer x where 0 < x <= 100.

Your answer of 50/99 doesn't work when the value of x is 99:

y = (50/99)*99 + 2 = 52

You cannot choose an integer valued denominator less than or equal to 100, since that will always lead to a case where you will get at least one integer value of y on the domain of 0 < x < 100.

The more "technical" answer is that you're looking for the smallest denominator for m that is coprime to all numbers 0 < x <= 100 and the first number to do so is 101.
Quoting Bergeron:
CO2 this, CO2 that...what are they gonna do about water vapor?


Water vapor has an extremely short atmospheric life span. There's nothing that can be done about water vapor until temperatures drop, which isn't going to happen with long-lived GHGs like CO2.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Have lived in the Tallahassee area for 12 years now and this is the warmest Jan/Feb period we have experienced (when we have frquently had low 20's and Teens in past years). Quite the anomaly this year. Flowers blooming everywhere and the fish all confused............... :)


Been in Louisiana all my life, and this must be the hottest January and February ever, though Jay Grimes claims it's only "top ten".

I don't know, we've only had 3 days this winter where the overnight lows were 32f or less, and technically, one of those was during Autumn, before the solstice even happened.

Overnight lows haven't gone below 40 in several weeks, and aren't going to do so again until at least the end of this week.


It's like the cold fronts can't even make temperatures get down to the old mean.
Jet stream isn't coming south pulling cold arctic air from Canada. Results in mild to above average temps. If the jet stream doesn't come south, it wont get cold, simple as that
It's called pattern anomolies, there's always something going on somewhere, can't have it all at once
Looking at some of the states record high temps, was there any correlation between the winter weather and the summer high temp? (I.e. being a mild winter and a hot summer?) I see that a lot of the records for the midwest were set in 1954. Does this have anything to do with solar cycles, sea temps or mild winters?

Link

Wondering if we are going to see the heat this summer.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 23.2S 167.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicates the system lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding DT=3.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeast movement without further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 26.4S 162.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.8S 157.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (942 hPa) located at 17.4S 165.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly in the past 12 hours. cold convection persist around low level circulation center. Eye still well defined in infrared. outflow remains good. System lies to the east of a short-wave upper trough center in a weak shear environment. Cyclone steered by west to northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in b surround yielding DT = 6.0, PT= 5.5 and MET=5.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Models generally agree on a southeast movement and gradually easing the system.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 19.7S 168.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 21.3S 170.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 24.4S 172.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jet stream isn't coming south pulling cold arctic air from Canada. Results in mild to above average temps. If the jet stream doesn't come south, it wont get cold, simple as that


good! for me atleast lol. i prefer warmth over cold
Cyclone Jasmine 133000Z 07 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 925.7mb/ 124.6kt

Raw T# 6.3
Adj T# 6.3
Final T# 6.4

Scene Type: EYE


Nice climb
Quoting JupiterKen:


It has been "proposed" as an additive to mess with the atmosphere. It is not a current jet fuel additive.

Edit: Further review of the article shows many errors.
From that website "Today's Top Stories: 'The Moon is Hollow, How Come?'" Definitely peer reviewed material right there.
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