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Rare and Dangerous Ice Storm Hits Deep South; Extreme Cold in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 PM GMT on January 28, 2014

A rare and dangerous ice storm has begun in the Deep South, where Winter Storm Leon is tracking along the northern Gulf Coast, spreading a nasty mix of freezing rain, sleet, cold rain, and snow along a swath from Central Texas to Eastern Virginia. At 8 am CST, freezing rain was falling at a temperature of 28°F in Austin, Texas, where a 20-car pileup on an overpass was reported, as well as at least ten other car crashes in a 30-minute time span. A portion of Interstate 35 was closed due to the crashes and icing. Freezing rain was falling on the north side of Houston, Texas, and in Mobile Alabama, this morning; snow was falling in Jackson Mississippi, and sleet in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The National Weather Service has posted Freezing Rain Advisories along a swath from Eastern Texas across Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, almost all of Georgia and South Carolina, and into Eastern North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland. Ice accumulations of 1/4" - 1/2" are expected in much of this area, with isolated higher amounts. Snows of 1 - 4" are possible just to the north of the freezing rain swath, with heavier amounts of 6 - 12" across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. The ice storm has the potential to cause significant damage to trees and power lines, resulting in widespread power outages. Travel will be very dangerous in a region unaccustomed to extreme winter weather.


Figure 1. Ice builds up on the Chicago River as temperatures drop below zero on January 27, 2014 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Extreme cold in the Midwest
An unusually sharp southwards dip of the jet stream is allowing intensely cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic and over the eastern half of the United States. The most extreme cold Tuesday morning was over the Upper Midwest, where the temperature fell to -35° in Northern Minnesota in Longville, with a dangerously low wind chill of -47°. Chicago bottomed out at -11°, with a wind chill of -30°, at 7 am CST. In Detroit, the low hit -10°, with a wind chill of -27°. Wind chill levels that low are extremely rare in Southeast Lower Michigan, and the dangerously cold conditions prompted officials at the University of Michigan to cancel classes on Tuesday for only the fourth time since the college was founded in 1817 (the other closures came in January 1978, 1974, and 1945, according to a Dec. 7, 2006 article published in the Michigan Daily.) The latest round of snow on Monday brought the January total snowfall for Detroit to 37.1", establishing a new all-time January snowfall record. It's getting so the snowbanks surrounding my driveway are so high, I can't throw the snow over them! This morning it hit -18° at my backyard PWS, marking the 12th day this month with a temperature of -10° or colder. It's truly been a winter to remember in Michigan in 2014.

The historic February 1994 Southeast U.S. ice storm
Damage from today's Southeast U.S. ice storm may well run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, but it will not compare to the damage from the most expensive ice storm in U.S. history, the great February 1994 Southeast U.S. ice storm. That storm killed nine people and caused $4.7 billion (2013 dollars) of damage in portions of TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, GA, SC, NC, and VA. At least 2 million customers were without electricity at some point, and 1/2 million were still without power three days after the storm. Hardest hit was Northern Mississippi, which was deluged with 4 - 5" of freezing rain that created flooding problems. Ice thicknesses of 3.5 - 5.5 inches were common in the state, causing catastrophic damage estimated at $3 billion. Some residents were without power one month after the storm.


Figure 2. ‪Number of blizzard warnings issued so far during the winter of 2013 - 2014 show that the Upper Midwest is giving Alaska a run for its money--a very unusual state of affairs! ‬Image credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Thanks go to TWC's Jon Erdman for providing this link.

62° in Alaska
The cold air flowing out of the Arctic into the eastern half of the U.S. is being replaced by warm air surging northwards over Alaska and the North Atlantic east of Greenland. The warmth in Alaska the past three days has been particularly astonishing, with Alaska observing its all-time warmest January temperature of 62° on Monday 1/27 at the Port Alsworth Climate Reference Network station, according to Rick Thoman of NWS Fairbanks. This ties the January state record set at Petersburg on January 16, 1981. Port Alsworth is about 160 miles southwest of Anchorage.

Nome, Alaska recorded a high of 51°F on Monday. This was 38° above average, and the warmest temperature ever observed in any November through March in Nome since record keeping began in 1907. Ironically, exactly 25 years ago, Nome recorded its lowest temperature on record--a bone-chilling -54° on January 27, 1989. Nome is located about 160 miles south of the Arctic Circle, and has just 6 1/2 hours of daylight this time of year.

According to Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest post, Record Warmth in Alaska Contrasts Cold Wave in Eastern U.S., all-time January heat records have been set over the past three days in Nome, Denali Park, Palmer, Homer (twice), Alyseka, Seward, and Talkeetna. Bolio Lake Range Complex in Fort Greely, Alaska, located about 100 miles southeast of Fairbanks, hit 60° on Sunday. This is only 2° short of the all-time state January heat record of 62° set at Petersburg in Jan 1981, according to NCDC records.

Links
Snowstorms in the Southeast and Deep South of the United States: An Historical Perspective, 2011 blog post by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

Jeff Masters
Rare Snow Rollers in Central Ohio
Rare Snow Rollers in Central Ohio
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East Texas Bull-sicle
East Texas Bull-sicle
We have frosted cows this morning in Jasper Co. TX
Incoming Cold
Incoming Cold
50° this afternoon. Going down to 6° tonight.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 965. SavannahStorm:


Say what?!? This town can't stand 3 hours of frozen precip. let alone 30...


Gents, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention...

SavStorm I'm over on Waters near the DMV. Don't miss having to deal with those bridges getting off the islands...
Quoting 997. nash36:
Branches in my backyard are starting to crack. This freezing rain/sleet is coming down like a thunderstorm right now!!! Very heavy!


Not good, we may lose you if that keeps up.

I remember during an event in 2011 I actually witnessed the phenomenon of thundersleet. I mean a heavy downpour of sleet accompanied with thunder and lightning. It was exhilarating!
1003. nash36
Quoting 998. GoWVU:


Nash same thing here in Goose Creek. My river birch is looking rough. I think I might have some cleanup to do after this.


Just think WVU- we have 9 more hours or so of this.

Correction- Possibly up to 12 more hours before it clears our area.
Just as I was saying, its looking a bit better for possible freezing precip in Tallahassee and maybe even light snow now tomorrow afternoon in the Tallahassee area:

000
FXUS62 KTAE 290232
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2014

...Freezing rain and sleet being reported in South Georgia and
Alabama this evening...A few reports of significant icing
beginning to come in...

.Near Term [Tonight]...

At 02 UTC there was a quasi-stationary front from the southwest
Gulf of Mexico through north central FL. Vapor imagery and upper
air data showed a positive tilted northern stream trough from the
Great Lakes through east TX, and a southern stream trough over
northern Mexico. Widespread, mostly light precipitation covered
much of the Gulf Coast region north of the frontal zone. In our
forecast area, we have had several reports of freezing rain and/or
sleet in northwest and western portions of our forecast area this
evening. There was a persistent "bright band" of precipitation
north of a line from Albany to Dothan, which seemed to mark a
transition zone from sleet to mainly snow. This region stands the
best chance of getting sleet/snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
The freezing line will continue to shift southeastward overnight,
helped out by cold air advection and evaporative cooling.
Tallahassee will likely change to light freezing rain between 2 am
and 6 am. Even though we don`t expect particularly large
accumulations of ice (generally 0.05 to 0.20 in), it doesn`t take
much to have major impacts to travel in this part of the country.


The latest consensus of NWP guidance (both global and high
resolution) has the precipitation tapering off from northwest to
southeast overnight. However, they also forecast another batch of
precipitation to develop later Wednesday morning or afternoon as
energy/moisture from the aforementioned troughs approach. The
Tallahassee area will be close to the northern edge of this
precipitation, and by then the entire column may have cooled
enough to support sleet and/or snow, though not a lot as QPF will
be very light. North of Tallahassee there could be a few flurries,
but no accumulations.

1005. GoWVU
Quoting 1003. nash36:


Just think WVU- we have 9 more hours or so of this.


Yes my wife is getting really nervous now. We have plenty of firewood and a generator if we lose power. Just don't want the trees to start falling.
Quoting 1004. Jedkins01:
Just as I was saying, its looking a bit better for possible freezing precip in Tallahassee and maybe even light snow now tomorrow afternoon in the Tallahassee area:

000
FXUS62 KTAE 290232
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2014

...Freezing rain and sleet being reported in South Georgia and
Alabama this evening...A few reports of significant icing
beginning to come in...

.Near Term [Tonight]...

At 02 UTC there was a quasi-stationary front from the southwest
Gulf of Mexico through north central FL. Vapor imagery and upper
air data showed a positive tilted northern stream trough from the
Great Lakes through east TX, and a southern stream trough over
northern Mexico. Widespread, mostly light precipitation covered
much of the Gulf Coast region north of the frontal zone. In our
forecast area, we have had several reports of freezing rain and/or
sleet in northwest and western portions of our forecast area this
evening. There was a persistent "bright band" of precipitation
north of a line from Albany to Dothan, which seemed to mark a
transition zone from sleet to mainly snow. This region stands the
best chance of getting sleet/snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
The freezing line will continue to shift southeastward overnight,
helped out by cold air advection and evaporative cooling.
Tallahassee will likely change to light freezing rain between 2 am
and 6 am. Even though we don`t expect particularly large
accumulations of ice (generally 0.05 to 0.20 in), it doesn`t take
much to have major impacts to travel in this part of the country.


The latest consensus of NWP guidance (both global and high
resolution) has the precipitation tapering off from northwest to
southeast overnight. However, they also forecast another batch of
precipitation to develop later Wednesday morning or afternoon as
energy/moisture from the aforementioned troughs approach. The
Tallahassee area will be close to the northern edge of this
precipitation, and by then the entire column may have cooled
enough to support sleet and/or snow, though not a lot as QPF will
be very light. North of Tallahassee there could be a few flurries,
but no accumulations.



The heaviest may actually be from Gainesville over to Jacksonville as the NAM and WRf models have done an excellent job with this system and those two models are showing a tremendous amount of rain over C FL getting pulled north into N FL with temps at or below freezing. There could also be thunder mixed in as well. So again watch Gainesville to JAX tomorrow.
Quoting 997. nash36:
Branches in my backyard are starting to crack. This freezing rain/sleet is coming down like a thunderstorm right now!!! Very heavy!
that's what happen here nash on the 23 of dec never had I witness freezing rain so hard

coming down like a summer thunderstorm I was in awe of it

my landscaper was with me that night at 3 in the morning watching
and the power flashes started
and he turn to me and said
I think its lightening out
I replied no that's the grid its coming down
and if it don't stop soon
it will all be on the ground

Quoting 1001. SouthernDiscomfort:


Gents, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention...

SavStorm I'm over on Waters near the DMV. Don't miss having to deal with those bridges getting off the islands...


I was here back in 89' when this town came to a standstill with 4 inches of snow on the ground. 1/2 inch of ice that sits there for 24 hours or more can do even more damage than that.
I saw new models more snow for the northeast for late tonight unit Wednesday morning up to 3 inches in new haven,conn
1010. nash36
Quoting 1007. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that's what happen here nash on the 23 of dec never had I witness freezing rain so hard

coming down like a summer thunderstorm I was in awe of it

my landscaper was with me that night at 3 in the morning watching
and the power flashes started
and he turn to me and said
I think its lightening out
I replied no that's the grid its coming down
and if it don't stop soon
it will all be on the ground



Awe inspiring Keeper. Just a wild scene, even in the dark. I'll be curious to see the end result in the morning once we have light.
Strange events like this will become wilder and wilder as we continue to pump trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.
1012. NCSCguy
Quoting 997. nash36:
Branches in my backyard are starting to crack. This freezing rain/sleet is coming down like a thunderstorm right now!!! Very heavy!
glad to know what's coming my way down here in north Charleston.
1013. nash36
Quoting 1011. AGWSpecialist:
Strange events like this will become wilder and wilder as we continue to pump trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.


I wouldn't call this a "strange event." This far in the south is not an everyday occurrence, yes, but it is not the end of the world.

Can we please leave the AGW conversation for another day AFTER millions of people are no longer affected by a dangerous system?

Thanks.
here come the snow
1015. GetReal
Quoting 1011. AGWSpecialist:
Strange events like this will become wilder and wilder as we continue to pump trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.



Yeah these wx events have never happened before the dawn of man.... Or since the beginning of record keeping...
Can't even see light through the windows of our car anymore here in Summerville! Stepped outside for a couple minutes earlier just to hear the rain and sleet hitting the iced over trees - we haven't heard it sound like this in over a decade (when we moved from RI)! Kind of exciting if there wasn't the possibility of so much damage...
I wonder what Johnson Ferry looks like to warrant this type of message.


Quoting 1011. AGWSpecialist:
Strange events like this will become wilder and wilder as we continue to pump trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.


There was an incident in 1800 where Savannah received 18" of snow with 3 foot blowing drifts...

1 incident does not a trend make... leave the AGW talk for slow weather day.
1019. Patrap
62° in Alaska
The cold air flowing out of the Arctic into the eastern half of the U.S. is being replaced by warm air surging northwards over Alaska and the North Atlantic east of Greenland. The warmth in Alaska the past three days has been particularly astonishing, with Alaska observing its all-time warmest January temperature of 62° on Monday 1/27 at the Port Alsworth Climate Reference Network station, according to Rick Thoman of NWS Fairbanks. This ties the January state record set at Petersburg on January 16, 1981. Port Alsworth is about 160 miles southwest of Anchorage.

Nome, Alaska recorded a high of 51°F on Monday. This was 38° above average, and the warmest temperature ever observed in any November through March in Nome since record keeping began in 1907. Ironically, exactly 25 years ago, Nome recorded its lowest temperature on record--a bone-chilling -54° on January 27, 1989. Nome is located about 160 miles south of the Arctic Circle, and has just 6 1/2 hours of daylight this time of year.

According to Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest post, Record Warmth in Alaska Contrasts Cold Wave in Eastern U.S., all-time January heat records have been set over the past three days in Nome, Denali Park, Palmer, Homer (twice), Alyseka, Seward, and Talkeetna. Bolio Lake Range Complex in Fort Greely, Alaska, located about 100 miles southeast of Fairbanks, hit 60° on Sunday. This is only 2° short of the all-time state January heat record of 62° set at Petersburg in Jan 1981, according to NCDC records.
1021. nash36
Quoting 1016. carolinabelle:
Can't even see light through the windows of our car anymore here in Summerville! Stepped outside for a couple minutes earlier just to hear the rain and sleet hitting the iced over trees - we haven't heard it sound like this in over a decade (when we moved from RI)! Kind of exciting if there wasn't the possibility of so much damage...


Yep. It's a wild sound. Almost like a million pounds of pop rocks.
The weather is getting wackier. Weirder and more unpredictable. Everywhere around the world.
1024. GetReal
60 in Alaska, Extreme cold in the Midwest, a Southern Ice and Snow storm. What in the world is going on?
its starting to snow at my house in new haven,conn.. its only 16 F HERE
1027. Patrap
Light Sneaux again, NOLA, Mid-City

1028. GetReal
Quoting 1025. AGWSpecialist:
60 in Alaska, Extreme cold in the Midwest, a Southern Ice and Snow storm. What in the world is going on?
crazy weather going on here on the east coast last five weeks
Quoting 1025. AGWSpecialist:
60 in Alaska, Extreme cold in the Midwest, a Southern Ice and Snow storm. What in the world is going on?



the quickening


to make more rapid; accelerate; hasten
Quoting 1027. Patrap:
Light Sneaux again, NOLA, Mid-City

its sneauxing pat? Let me go check then lol!
Quoting 1026. hurricanes2018:
its starting to snow at my house in new haven,conn.. its only 16 F HERE
maybe up to 5 inches of snow tonight the number keep going higher what is going on here!!
Quoting 1026. hurricanes2018:
its starting to snow at my house in new haven,conn.. its only 16 F HERE...maybe up to 5 inches of snow tonight the number keep going higher what is going on here!!


I'm originally from west shore, west haven. I could not take that cold anymore. Been in florida since '84
Reporting from the the center of New Hanover County in Wilmington, we have had nonstop freezing rain and sleet for almost five hours now. Multiple reports of .3 to .5 an inch of ice have been reported and we still have probably 4 to 5 more hours before a change over to mostly snow. Will try to post some pics later.
Anybody watching the next system coming off the Northwest Pacific coast later this week?
Quoting 1030. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



the quickening


to make more rapid; accelerate; hasten


faster and faster, weirder and weirder....
33 and raining steady here- dog didn't even want to go out, and he ALWAYS wants to go out...
1038. pcola57
Power back on..
3Hrs. down..
Nasty icy mess right now..
Many wrecks as can be expected..
According to DOT..
Train de-railed in Molino..
8 cars off and 3 in Fletchers Creek..
Those 3 happened to be Hazardous Chemicals and are leaking into the creek..
Great..


My WU says light snow..all I see is sleet and alot of ice..
1039. GetReal
Quoting 1011. AGWSpecialist:
Strange events like this will become wilder and wilder as we continue to pump trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Trillions? Really? Helpful hint: check your math...
Quoting 1035. Haiyan2013:
Anybody watching the next system coming off the Northwest Pacific coast later this week?


Yes, we in OK are expecting a bit of snow from that one.
Quoting 1035. Haiyan2013:
Anybody watching the next system coming off the Northwest Pacific coast later this week?


We get first dibs on it.
Just to show how far reaching this storm is, I am currently getting some snow here in southern NJ.



Gotta love being included in the fun!
Quoting 1038. pcola57:
Power back on..
3Hrs. down..
Nasty icy mess right now..
Many wrecks as can be expected..
According to DOT..
Train de-railed in Molino..
8 cars off and 3 in Fletchers Creek..
Those 3 happened to be Hazardous Chemicals and are leaking into the creek..
Great..

My WU says light snow..all I see is sleet and alot of ice..


Where is Molino?
Good night to all... stay safe tomorrow - it sounds like the worst is yet to come for some pple...
I am getting snow in York County, PA now. I have a coating on the cars and a coating on the pavement.
Quoting 1006. StormTrackerScott:


The heaviest may actually be from Gainesville over to Jacksonville as the NAM and WRf models have done an excellent job with this system and those two models are showing a tremendous amount of rain over C FL getting pulled north into N FL with temps at or below freezing. There could also be thunder mixed in as well. So again watch Gainesville to JAX tomorrow.
Yep, I have been saying Jacksonville will get snow from this system, let's see if I predicted correctly, because I had a horrible time predicting storms during the hurricane season.
Quoting 1040. Neapolitan:

We are pumping more C02 into the atmosphere now more than ever. The Globe is rapidly warming. Rapidly. The weather is getting wackier. And it's only getting worse. Much, much worse.
Here's the picture I took from Kimmel Arena before the basketball tonight. 109-105 was the final score in favor of visitor (VMI) and the game didn't go overtime.

Winter Storm Warning just updated:

Coastal Okaloosa

Winter Storm Warning, Wind Chill Advisory
Statement as of 9:26 PM CST on January 28, 2014

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST
Wednesday...
... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from 2 am to 9 am CST
Wednesday...

* timing... wintry precipitation ends from the west this evening and
into early Wednesday morning. However first... the most significant
impacts will be from an ongoing ice storm that is currently in
progress over southern Baldwin County and the northwest Florida
Panhandle and portions of southeast Alabama. Freezing rain will
continue to occur all the way south to the coast. The freezing rain
will change to sleet before ending where up to an inch may
accumulate before 4 am.

Snow flurries end west of I-65 through midnight. East of I-65 in
south central Alabama Alabama light snow tapers to flurries through
midnight and ends through 3 am CST. No additional snowfall
accumulation.

* Impacts... additional glaze accrual could approach a third of an
inch on tree limbs and power lines and particularly elevated
exposed metal objects. An additional inch of sleet on top of that
will pack on roadways on top of the glaze continuing treacherous
Road conditions. Bridges and overpasses are definitely ice covered
regionwide and reports continue to flow in regarding this.

Also as temperatures plummet into the teens and lower 20s this
evening and overnight... standing water will freeze rapidly making
roadways even more treacherous.

For additional information on event timing and impacts... please
refer to the NWS home Page at http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/mob to obtain
additional graphics.

* Wind chill values... dropping to 5 to 10 degrees after midnight
through early Wednesday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills less than 10 degrees.
This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if
precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors... make
sure you wear a hat and gloves.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
842 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MODERATE TO
HEAVY ROUND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AFFECTING THE FL
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF S CTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WHICH WILL EXCERBATE ISSUES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLEET...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND COVINGTON
COUNTY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE BACKEDGE
OF THE PRECIP AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES COMPLETELY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES
OUT.

IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE ROADS WILL BE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOWER
20S EAST. A HARD FREEZE WARNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN EFFECT. 34/JFB

No snow for me.. just not lucky enough.. drying up near me, if i do get any.. then its a flake or two.. but icy and cold air for me.. awesome!
1052. Patrap
Light Snow continues here Mid City NOLA.

Nice looking,Quiet..no traffic.
1054. nash36
As I said before....let's get through the ONGOING event and leave the AGW for another day.

Not trying to be flippant, but the ice storm is a tad more important RIGHT NOW than the AGW discussion.

Ok, back to the storm.
Quoting 1052. Patrap:
Light Snow continues here Mid City NOLA.

Nice looking,Quiet..no traffic.


well if there is a next potential system.. Hopefully we can get a dusting from.. all im getting from this system is ice and the cold.. maybe a flurrie or two but i doubt it.. busted over here with the forecast but i know it gets tricky this far south..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 07U
1:27 PM EST January 29 2014
================================================

At 1:00 pm EST, a Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 16.2S 150.8E or 545 km east of Cairns and 545 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwestwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast.

A strong ridge of high pressure extends through the Coral Sea to the south of the tropical low. The two systems are currently combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Port Douglas and Mackay. Winds are expected to increase further with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr developing about the coast from this evening and extending inland during Thursday and Friday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts from tonight and should continue into Thursday.

Coastal residents between Port Douglas and Hamilton Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the developing tropical low approaches the coast, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

As the developing tropical low approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Hamilton Island and St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Port Douglas to Mackay

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Mackay to St Lawrence, extending inland through the eastern interior north of Clermont
1057. GoWVU
Ok Charleston folks anyone seeing snow yet? Nothing but ice and sleet for me. By looking at the radar does it look like we are going to get 2-3 inches of snow?
Quoting 1052. Patrap:
Light Snow continues here Mid City NOLA.

Nice looking,Quiet..no traffic.
Yep hardly a peep of vehicles on the roads. Very proud of Nola for listening!
1059. pcola57


1060. nash36
Quoting 1057. GoWVU:
Ok Charleston folks anyone seeing snow yet? Nothing but ice and sleet for me. By looking at the radar does it look like we are going to get 2-3 inches of snow?


It's coming. We're still at 31-32 degrees. Once the cold core pocket moves in, we'll change over to snow overnight. We can still expect 3 maybe 4 inches of snow before this is over.

Coastal areas can probably expect 1 inch or so, but a prolonged icing event.
Night all - stay safe! Hopefully we'll still have power here in the morning ;)
1063. GoWVU
Quoting 1060. nash36:


It's coming. We're still at 31-32 degrees. Once the cold core pocket moves in, we'll change over to snow overnight. We can still expect 3 maybe 4 inches of snow before this is over.

Coastal areas can probably expect 1 inch or so, but a prolonged icing event.


Thanks Nash
Quoting 1054. nash36:
As I said before....let's get through the ONGOING event and leave the AGW for another day.

Not trying to be flippant, but the ice storm is a tad more important RIGHT NOW than the AGW discussion.

Ok, back to the storm.

You talk storm.

Others will talk how storms like this are becoming more common as we pump more and more CO2 into the atmosphere.

See. Now everyone can be happy.
Same here..I was hoping for snow..the ice is pretty but..

Quoting 1051. FLPandhandleJG:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
842 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MODERATE TO
HEAVY ROUND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AFFECTING THE FL
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF S CTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WHICH WILL EXCERBATE ISSUES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLEET...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND COVINGTON
COUNTY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE BACKEDGE
OF THE PRECIP AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES COMPLETELY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES
OUT.

IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE ROADS WILL BE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOWER
20S EAST. A HARD FREEZE WARNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN EFFECT. 34/JFB

No snow for me.. just not lucky enough.. drying up near me, if i do get any.. then its a flake or two.. but icy and cold air for me.. awesome!
Quoting 1059. pcola57:


It's a small community beholding to the large Paper plant for it's existence..

It's located where the bullseye is on this map..North of me..South of Century..


Don't see anything about that train derailment you mentioned?
1068. nash36
Quoting 1064. AGWSpecialist:

You talk storm.

Others will talk how storms like this are becoming more common as we pump more and more CO2 into the atmosphere.

See. Now everyone can be happy.


Not gonna argue during a storm. Talk all you like. You have that freedom. Just understand most folks in the CWA of this mess aren't exactly interested in the AGW stuff right now.

1069. pcola57
Quoting 1066. PedleyCA:


Don't see anything about that train derailment you mentioned?


Let me look around and see if I can find more about it..
I was listening to the local radio while the power was out..
I heard it there..
BB in a min..
Quoting 1068. nash36:


Not gonna argue during a storm. Talk all you like. You have that freedom. Just understand most folks in the CWA of this mess aren't exactly interested in the AGW stuff right now.


You got it. Thanks.
Quoting 1067. washingtonian115:
Hmm
1072. nash36
Quoting 1063. GoWVU:


Thanks Nash


Anytime WVU.

Would like to also note: our ground temps seem to be holding steady. If this continues, we'll not see the major impacts on the roads, which is good.
Light snow in College Park MD. Half inch accumulated quickly but very fluffy and little liquid water. Expecting 1-2" total depending on where a band sets up.

1074. Patrap
BREAKING NEWS: Molino Train Derailment, Evacuation
January 28, 2014


As many as eight or nine cars of a train have derailed behind the McDavid Sawmill tonight. At least four cars are confirmed off a bridge and into a creek. Two of those cars reportedly contain sulfuric acid and two contain Acetic acid. It is unknown at this time if either car is leaking.
A portion Cotton Lake Road and possibly Barth Road are being evacuated as a precaution.
Firefighters from McDavid and Molino are on scene and an Escambia County Fire Rescue Hazmat crew is responding.
Quoting 1051. FLPandhandleJG:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
842 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MODERATE TO
HEAVY ROUND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AFFECTING THE FL
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF S CTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WHICH WILL EXCERBATE ISSUES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLEET...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND COVINGTON
COUNTY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE BACKEDGE
OF THE PRECIP AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES COMPLETELY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES
OUT.

IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE ROADS WILL BE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOWER
20S EAST. A HARD FREEZE WARNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN EFFECT. 34/JFB

No snow for me.. just not lucky enough.. drying up near me, if i do get any.. then its a flake or two.. but icy and cold air for me.. awesome!

You're in Niceville right? Go outside right now. It's snowing and sleeting!
1077. nash36
Quoting 1074. Patrap:
BREAKING NEWS: Molino Train Derailment, Evacuation
January 28, 2014


As many as eight or nine cars of a train have derailed behind the McDavid Sawmill tonight. At least four cars are confirmed off a bridge and into a creek. Two of those cars reportedly contain sulfuric acid and two contain Acetic acid. It is unknown at this time if either car is leaking.
A portion Cotton Lake Road and possibly Barth Road are being evacuated as a precaution.
Firefighters from McDavid and Molino are on scene and an Escambia County Fire Rescue Hazmat crew is responding.


Man that's bad.
@CityCharleston 16m
Don Holt Bridge closed. DOT working to re-open. #chswx
Allybama..

I havent got icicles or it hasnt ice yet.. but still getting sum freezing rain now and a lil mix of sleet but its not sticking.. Dew point over here has been near 30 sometimes a lil lower.. so if we get any to stick it needs to be wet and more dominant.. i just dont c it unless some band forms a lil later when it gets colder.. well u probably have more luck.. my sister is ocean springs MS had sum snow.. atleast some ppl i know down here in the southeast is getting something other than ice or freezing rain.. lol

1080. Dakster
Hey PedleyCA! I haven't seen you all day. Hope you are basking in the rain, but I doubt it.

BTW - Sent you some WUMAIL.
1081. nash36
Quoting 1078. wxgeek723:
@CityCharleston 16m
Don Holt Bridge closed. DOT working to re-open. #chswx


Surprised it took that long. Ravenel closed hours ago. No one is going to work in the morning. Too dangerous.
1082. Drakoen
Glad some of you guys are finally getting snow.

Quoting 1082. Drakoen:
Glad some of you guys are finally getting snow.
No snow here for now. Quite the forgettable event considering what it could have been, at least in my area.
Quoting 1075. opal92nwf:

You're in Niceville right? Go outside right now. It's snowing and sleeting!


its sleeting but it is really small and not sticking at all.. dont really see the snow.. unless its very small and not sticking as well..
Quoting 1082. Drakoen:
Glad some of you guys are finally getting snow.

and it's still coming down!

I'm very satisfied that this has turned out much better than the 2010 event for us at the coast.
1086. Dakster
Quoting 1074. Patrap:
BREAKING NEWS: Molino Train Derailment, Evacuation
January 28, 2014


As many as eight or nine cars of a train have derailed behind the McDavid Sawmill tonight. At least four cars are confirmed off a bridge and into a creek. Two of those cars reportedly contain sulfuric acid and two contain Acetic acid. It is unknown at this time if either car is leaking.
A portion Cotton Lake Road and possibly Barth Road are being evacuated as a precaution.
Firefighters from McDavid and Molino are on scene and an Escambia County Fire Rescue Hazmat crew is responding.



Ewwwwwwwwww. Yuckola...... That can't be good.

Just read an article that transport by train was almost dead not that long ago, but now it has made an incredible come back. Unfortunately, the number of accidents involving trains has also gonna up significantly. (Granted, this mainly due to the Bakken Oil Field and no pipeline.)
1087. nash36
Look at the radar....

The snow line is coming from W-E into the Charleston area very soon.

Here comes our snow, WVU :-)
1088. Dakster
Quoting 1084. FLPandhandleJG:


its sleeting but it is really small and not sticking at all.. dont really see the snow.. unless its very small and not sticking as well..


Still not getting any?
Quoting 1082. Drakoen:
Glad some of you guys are finally getting snow.

if it is .. its very small and not sticking here..
LOl
Quoting 1084. FLPandhandleJG:


its sleeting but it is really small and not sticking at all.. dont really see the snow.. unless its very small and not sticking as well..

I definitely saw very small, dusty snowflakes flying around in the wind (have seen some impressive gusts). A lot of sleet though.

I knew it was snow cause some of it was flying up and swirling around.
Quoting 1085. opal92nwf:

and it's still coming down!

I'm very satisfied that this has turned out much better than the 2010 event for us at the coast.


is it sticking at your place.. but no luck for me unless in a lil bit it does..
1093. nash36
And the system isn't moving all that fast, so if the snow line hits in the next hour, we could get constant snow for several hours.

We'll see how this plays out.
Quoting 1074. Patrap:
BREAKING NEWS: Molino Train Derailment, Evacuation
January 28, 2014


As many as eight or nine cars of a train have derailed behind the McDavid Sawmill tonight. At least four cars are confirmed off a bridge and into a creek. Two of those cars reportedly contain sulfuric acid and two contain Acetic acid. It is unknown at this time if either car is leaking.
A portion Cotton Lake Road and possibly Barth Road are being evacuated as a precaution.
Firefighters from McDavid and Molino are on scene and an Escambia County Fire Rescue Hazmat crew is responding.
where is molina?
Quoting 1083. KoritheMan:

No snow here for now. Quite the forgettable event considering what it could have been, at least in my area.

All we got here was very heavy sleet. Good stuff nonetheless. I'm beginning to hear rumors about a THIRD southern winter storm.
1096. Dakster
Quoting 1094. bigwes6844:
where is molina?


Escambia County, Florida I am assuming.
1097. GoWVU
Quoting 1087. nash36:
Look at the radar....

The snow line is coming from W-E into the Charleston area very soon.

Here comes our snow, WVU :-)


GOOD!!! Enough of the ice
1098. Drakoen
Quoting 1083. KoritheMan:

No snow here for now. Quite the forgettable event considering what it could have been, at least in my area.


No flurries whatsoever? The moisture feed is pushing south.
1099. pcola57
Quoting 1066. PedleyCA:


Don't see anything about that train derailment you mentioned?


Try This Ped..

Train cars crash into Molino Creek

Pretty much the same info here ATM..

Quoting 1098. Drakoen:


No flurries whatsoever? The moisture feed is pushing south.
I slept most of the day trying to alleviate this annoying canker sore I have in the back of my throat, but no, not as far as I know.

Some of the nearby PWS's were reporting light snow periodically throughout the evening, but I don't consider those reliable when I literally live in the same area as the stations, lol.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
9:00 AM JST January 29 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.5N 142.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 9.4N 137.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 1096. Dakster:


Escambia County, Florida I am assuming.
is that Pensacola or destin its near?
1103. Drakoen
Quoting 1100. KoritheMan:

I slept most of the day trying to alleviate this annoying canker sore I have in the back of my throat, but no, not as far as I know.

Some of the nearby PWS's were reporting light snow periodically throughout the evening, but I don't consider those reliable when I literally live in the same area as the stations, lol.


New Iberia was reporting snow for most of the day
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1105. Dakster
Quoting 1102. bigwes6844:
is that Pensacola or destin its near?


Yes and the name of the town is Molino... No 'a' at the end.
1106. ncstorm
I'm not giving up on the snow coming to Wilmington..


Quoting 1103. Drakoen:


New Iberia was reporting snow for most of the day
I'm closer to Baton Rouge, though.
Some of my friends are staying at school, some are STILL on busses, some are on now stranded busses and walked home.

One of my best friends walked 8 miles home in the snow earlier. Many were not properly dressed for such a long walk home either.

Finally people are getting to where they are going, wheteher it be a hotel, home, or just staying at school or a business..

It must be horrible to be on a bus from 2pm to 11pm just trying to find a way to get back to school because the bus can't make it back.
Quoting 1092. FLPandhandleJG:


is it sticking at your place.. but no luck for me unless in a lil bit it does..

The ground is becoming crunchy with sleet now!
15 and light snow and I just saw someone bicycling down the street! Hard core!
Quoting 1079. FLPandhandleJG:
Allybama..

I havent got icicles or it hasnt ice yet.. but still getting sum freezing rain now and a lil mix of sleet but its not sticking.. Dew point over here has been near 30 sometimes a lil lower.. so if we get any to stick it needs to be wet and more dominant.. i just dont c it unless some band forms a lil later when it gets colder.. well u probably have more luck.. my sister is ocean springs MS had sum snow.. atleast some ppl i know down here in the southeast is getting something other than ice or freezing rain.. lol



I am fortunate in that I do have another 1/2-1" of ice on the ground - which makes for a pretty sight but slippery! lol.. anyway, I haven't seen any snow in my area unless it was very, very light..we actually went from the sleet back to some freezing rain and then it slowly ceased falling.
Quoting 1108. GeorgiaStormz:
Some of my friends are staying at school, some are STILL on busses, some are on now stranded busses and walked home.

One of my best friends walked 8 miles home in the snow earlier. Many were not properly dressed for such a long walk home either.

Finally people are getting to where they are going, wheteher it be a hotel, home, or just staying at school or a business..

It must be horrible to be on a bus from 2pm to 11pm just trying to find a way to get back to school because the bus can't make it back.


Atlanta Snow Jam 2.0, eh? You would've thought they would've learned the first time...
Quoting 1106. ncstorm:
I'm not giving up on the snow coming to Wilmington..

LOL, go to bed and dream of it, and wake up in the morning to snow up to your waist.
On the bright side, that warm inversion appears to have weakened a little up about 900 mb, but I don't know if it'll be enough.
Quoting 1076. Patrap:
About 111,000 results (0.69 seconds)
Search Results
News for Train Derails, Molino


Thanks for that Pat. I was putting Molino Alabama Train Wreck and didn't get anything recent. Should have put derailment, Duh...

Quoting 1114. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL, go to bed and dream of it, and wake up in the morning to snow up to your waist.
That's actually what I do with any sort of weather event I find desirable; sleep and see what happens.

Sleep. Do it.
KBTR now reporting Scattered Clouds. Something tells me the models aren't resolving the dry air quite so accurately...
Quoting 1108. GeorgiaStormz:
Some of my friends are staying at school, some are STILL on busses, some are on now stranded busses and walked home.

One of my best friends walked 8 miles home in the snow earlier. Many were not properly dressed for such a long walk home either.

Finally people are getting to where they are going, wheteher it be a hotel, home, or just staying at school or a business..

It must be horrible to be on a bus from 2pm to 11pm just trying to find a way to get back to school because the bus can't make it back.

Do you still talk with TheOnlyBravesFan. Is she going to check in tonight and give us a live update?
Quoting 1080. Dakster:
Hey PedleyCA! I haven't seen you all day. Hope you are basking in the rain, but I doubt it.

BTW - Sent you some WUMAIL.


Found one earlier.... thanks
Quoting 1117. KoritheMan:

That's actually what I do with any sort of weather event I find desirable; sleep and see what happens.

Sleep. Do it.


HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR LOUISIANA

* Kori goes to sleep. *

* Kori wakes up *

ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
Quoting 1117. KoritheMan:

That's actually what I do with any sort of weather event I find desirable; sleep and see what happens.

Sleep. Do it.


Chat. You pwomised.
Quoting 1117. KoritheMan:

That's actually what I do with any sort of weather event I find desirable; sleep and see what happens.

Sleep. Do it.

It's exciting along with that dreading feeling in your stomach when you open the blinds
Quoting 1106. ncstorm:
I'm not giving up on the snow coming to Wilmington..


1125. pcola57
Quoting 1116. PedleyCA:


Thanks for that Pat. I was putting Molino Alabama Train Wreck and didn't get anything recent. Should have put derailment, Duh...


See also Post#1110 Ped..
Molino,Florida..
Thanks Pat..
1126. Drakoen
Freezing rain and snow being reported at Miramar Beach, FL.

Quoting 1121. wxgeek723:


HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR LOUISIANA

* Kori goes to sleep. *

* Kori wakes up *

ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
You get on my nerves sometimes Trent, but I just can't hate you for this. xD

Quoting 1122. Astrometeor:


Chat. You pwomised.
You kids never go to bed anyways. I'll be there in a bit.
1129. Drakoen
Seems the wintry weather is in this band moving through Pensacola:

Georgia State Patrol: 940 crashes, 104 injuries reported since 10 am ET
Quoting 1126. Drakoen:
Freezing rain and snow being reported at Miramar Beach, FL.
That's funny there is a Miramar Beach, FL located in the Panhandle and a Miramar, FL located in Miami. I learned something, lol.
1135. Dakster
Quoting 1131. Doppler22:
Georgia State Patrol: 940 crashes, 104 injuries reported since 10 am ET


And that probably doesn't include all the crashes in the city streets.
This is the first time I have seen a 15F temperature diffence between Gainesville and Ocala.
Quoting 1129. Drakoen:
Seems the wintry weather is in this band moving through Pensacola:


Enough sleet here that I almost tripped on our front step. Also, my car is becoming covered in ice (sleet)

Ice still in the trees from earlier: if we get more freezing rain or snow, it will add to it.
Coming faster than I expected!

Already getting sleet mixing in with rain here:

Unknown Precip

37°F

3°C

Humidity86%
Wind SpeedN 14 G 18 mph
Barometer30.14 in (1020.5 mb)
Dewpoint33°F (1°C)
Visibility8.00 mi
Wind Chill28°F (-2°C)

Last Update on 28 Jan 10:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Maybe the coastal counties will partially make up for what they missed farther up north if it keeps streaming in like this.
1141. nash36
Sweet mother!!!!!

It is pouring freezing rain and sleet in Summerville right now!!!! If this continues, we will easily surpass 1/2 inch ice accumulation!
Quoting 1110. pcola57:
Re-Post..



Thanks,
Quoting 1124. washingtonian115:

Snow is coming down at a good clip.
Quoting 1117. KoritheMan:

That's actually what I do with any sort of weather event I find desirable; sleep and see what happens.

Sleep. Do it.


To die, to sleep--
No more--and by a sleep to say we end
The heartache, and the thousand natural shocks
That forecasting is heir to. 'Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep--
To sleep--perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death what weather may come?
At last a transition to snow here in Goldsboro!
Strange...the front of my house pretty much faces west. So it appears that the cloud cover is breaking up so why are the clouds moving west to southwest? The wind is out of the N-NW..
12 degrees and light to moderate snow coming down. I'd say fluffy light right now.
What do you guys think about a possible winter weather event next Weekend?
Models are starting to latch on it.
1149. Dakster
Quoting 1141. nash36:
Sweet mother!!!!!

It is pouring freezing rain and sleet in Summerville right now!!!! If this continues, we will easily surpass 1/2 inch ice accumulation!


Are you gonna change the name of the town to Winterville now?
The long range pattern is beginning to show some signs of shifting as many areas that were so dry in the CONUS during the month of January will begin seeing more moisture.
Quoting 1146. AllyBama:
Strange...the front of my house pretty much faces west. So it appears that the cloud cover is breaking up so why are the clouds moving west to southwest? The wind is out of the N-NW..
That's because the north wind is blowing it south. Duh.
Special weather statement for
City of Toronto continued

Reduced visibilities in local blowing snow tonight and possibly again Wednesday.

A blustery very cold weather pattern which has been quite common this winter is still in place. The combination of a strong low pressure area over Hudson Bay and a strong Arctic high pressure area over the us midwest and Ohio Valley is producing strong and frigid west to southwest winds.

These brisk and gusty winds will continue to produce localized blowing and drifting snow and associated poor visibilities tonight and Wednesday. North to south routes in exposed areas will be most susceptible to poor travel conditions.

Motorists should drive accordingly to the road and weather conditions and be prepared for sudden low visibility in areas of blowing snow.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


Quoting 1151. Andrebrooks:
That's because the north wind is blowing it south. Duh.

Be nice, Andre.
Wind chill warning for
City of Toronto continued

Cold wind chills tonight and Wednesday morning.

The wind chills are expected to return to minus 30 or colder again tonight across many areas as very cold temperatures and strong and gusty winds persist.

Frostbite (damage, sometimes permanent, to skin and body tissue due to freezing) and hypothermia (a life threatening drop in body temperature) will occur if adequate precautions are not taken when outdoors. These can occur within minutes.

A bitterly cold Arctic air mass has once again invaded Southern Ontario. It will persist through Wednesday, before a slow moderating trend finally arrives later this week.
1155. nash36
Quoting 1149. Dakster:


Are you gonna change the name of the town to Winterville now?


Just might Dak!!! I've lived in Dallas and Detroit before. I've seen winter weather, including ice. I've never seen a thunderstorm type downpour of ice. Have only seen the light, yet constant type precip.
I'm thinking Nash that the NWS should have stuck with the Ice Storm Warning for Charleston like they initially issued for them...

Quoting 1148. Andrebrooks:
What do you guys think about a possible winter weather event next Weekend?
Models are starting to latch on it.
They're starting to hint, not latch on. A little too early for such an abrasive word, IMO. :p
Quoting 1148. Andrebrooks:
What do you guys think about a possible winter weather event next Weekend?
Models are starting to latch on it.

Gulf Coast?
Quoting 1153. AGWSpecialist:

Be nice, Andre.
I am, I'm just picking with you. :)
1160. Dakster
Quoting 1155. nash36:


Just might Dak!!! I've lived in Dallas and Detroit before. I've seen winter weather, including ice. I've never seen a thunderstorm type downpour of ice. Have only seen the light, yet constant type precip.


Spent alot of time growing up South of Detroit. And lived in Arkansas. So I've seen nasty winter weather too.. But thunderstorm with ice is crazy nasty. Went thru a nasty hail storm with lightning in Arkansas...
Quoting 1159. Andrebrooks:
I am, I'm just picking with you. :)

Cool. :)
Quoting 1158. opal92nwf:

Gulf Coast?
More Texas and Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Ice starting to build on the trees in Charleston area. Looks like the worst may stay to the N of us unless the low moves a little further E.

Live webcam from Summerville area...Just a mile or two from where Nash is.
1164. nash36
Quoting 1156. AGWSpecialist:
I'm thinking Nash that the NWS should have stuck with the Ice Storm Warning for Charleston like they initially issued for them...


I agree AGW. Granted, they issued that for the coastal Charleston area. I am about 20 miles inland in Summerville, but we are getting pummeled with freezing rain and sleet, so I have to give this round to Dr. Postel when he told Cantore, "nope, my models are showing an ice event in Charleston with lesser snows."
I don't think this is over for the coast.
1166. nash36
Quoting 1163. StormJunkie:
Ice starting to build on the trees in Charleston area. Looks like the worst may stay to the N of us unless the low moves a little further E.

Live webcam from Summerville area...Just a mile or two from where Nash is.


I'm getting hammered at the house. Was like a thunderstorm downpour with the ice. How you doing my friend?
1167. tlemom
Guessing everything is over for Mobile/Baldwin County now!! :( So wanted to see the snow, but the dry air got in there before I got to see any!! Lots of Sleet and ice, but no snow to really speak of!
Quoting 1165. opal92nwf:
I don't think this is over for the coast.
Yep, NO was reporting flurries.
Quoting 1130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Washi, Me, Doppler are getting good snow right now.
Quoting 1166. nash36:


I'm getting hammered at the house. Was like a thunderstorm downpour with the ice. How you doing my friend?


Not too bad all things considered. The I26 corridor between Orangeburg and Columbia looks to be getting the worst of it. Looks like a dry slot headed our way...unless it fills in. Coastal Ga area dry slot.
Unknown Precip Fog/Mist

26°F

-3°C

Humidity88%
Wind SpeedN 10 G 21 mph
Barometer30.27 in (1025.1 mb)
Dewpoint23°F (-5°C)
Visibility6.00 mi
Wind Chill16°F (-9°C)

Last Update on 28 Jan 9:53 pm CST

Current conditions at

Crestview, Sikes Airport (KCEW)

Lat: 30.79°N Lon: 86.52°W Elev: 190ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather



Unknown Precip

23°F

-5°C

Humidity88%
Wind SpeedN 15 mph
Barometer30.31 in (1026.4 mb)
Dewpoint20°F (-7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill10°F (-12°C)

Last Update on 28 Jan 9:56 pm CST

Current conditions at

Mobile Regional Airport (KMOB)

Lat: 30.68°N Lon: 88.25°W Elev: 215ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather





Check out these temps, these are amazingly cold for this time of night, it will be interesting to see how cold it will be in Tallahassee by morning.

Quoting 1165. opal92nwf:
I don't think this is over for the coast.
See that parish just southeast of EBR parish? I'm conveniently stuck right in a carefully placed precipitation hole.

seppuku.gif
1173. ncstorm
1174. Dakster
Quoting 1166. nash36:


I'm getting hammered at the house. Was like a thunderstorm downpour with the ice. How you doing my friend?


What are you drinking?
Someone's gotta take a nice picture of an iced over palm tree. Snow is one thing...but to encase a palm tree in ice, that's a level of irony that would make even your English teacher drool.
Quoting 1162. Andrebrooks:
More Texas and Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Wow. Then again we had the 2010 event in February.
Stuck in a rut at 32F-34F here for the last several hours. We actually had a flurry to start the last round of precip off, but its been nothing but rain with a bit of sleet mixed since. Not much ice accumulation either, but that's a blessing.
1178. NCSCguy
Quoting 1141. nash36:
Sweet mother!!!!!

It is pouring freezing rain and sleet in Summerville right now!!!! If this continues, we will easily surpass 1/2 inch ice accumulation!
any idea if that will make it down to North Charleston just a little sleet down here atm.
Quoting 1172. KoritheMan:

See that parish just southeast of EBR parish? I'm conveniently stuck right in a carefully placed precipitation hole.

seppuku.gif

I feel for ya; I can definitely relate..
Quoting 1165. opal92nwf:
I don't think this is over for the coast.


well, I sure hope some of that moisture lifts a little more northward!
Quoting 1176. opal92nwf:

Wow. Then again we had the 2010 event in February.
Around the same date too.
Quoting 1162. Andrebrooks:
More Texas and Louisiana, and Mississippi.


and none for me? :(
1184. Drakoen
Quoting 1171. Jedkins01:
Unknown Precip Fog/Mist

26°F

-3°C

Humidity88%
Wind SpeedN 10 G 21 mph
Barometer30.27 in (1025.1 mb)
Dewpoint23°F (-5°C)
Visibility6.00 mi
Wind Chill16°F (-9°C)

Last Update on 28 Jan 9:53 pm CST

Current conditions at

Crestview, Sikes Airport (KCEW)

Lat: 30.79°N Lon: 86.52°W Elev: 190ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather



Unknown Precip

23°F

-5°C

Humidity88%
Wind SpeedN 15 mph
Barometer30.31 in (1026.4 mb)
Dewpoint20°F (-7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill10°F (-12°C)

Last Update on 28 Jan 9:56 pm CST

Current conditions at

Mobile Regional Airport (KMOB)

Lat: 30.68°N Lon: 88.25°W Elev: 215ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather





Check out these temps, these are amazingly cold for this time of night, it will be interesting to see how cold it will be in Tallahassee by morning.


Light rain here at my house.
Weather's interesting in a few spots but there appears to be a serious situation continuing on the roads around Metro Atlanta that , as we approach midnight and it's not getting any warmer, there's lots of folks still out there now with nowhere to go and running low or out of gas.
Quoting 1183. AllyBama:


and none for me? :(
Maybe, if the models put snow in Alabama.
Quoting 1151. Andrebrooks:
That's because the north wind is blowing it south. Duh.



so like, the north wind is going "BAM" and sending all the clouds scurrying in every direction? lol
1188. Dakster
Quoting 1185. CosmicEvents:
Weather's interesting in a few spots but there appears to be a serious situation continuing on the roads around Metro Atlanta that , as we approach midnight and it's not getting any warmer, there's lots of folks still out there now with nowhere to go and running low or out of gas.


Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Time to Bail - Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Dry- Dress in Layers and Don't Play in the ICE...
Quoting 1173. ncstorm:



Quoting 1185. CosmicEvents:
Weather's interesting in a few spots but there appears to be a serious situation continuing on the roads around Metro Atlanta that , as we approach midnight and it's not getting any warmer, there's lots of folks still out there now with nowhere to go and running low or out of gas.


Birmingham is in the same boat..children trapped at schools, motorists stranded, missing people, you name it..
Quoting 1189. PedleyCA:
Time to Bail - Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Dry- Dress in Layers and Don't Play in the ICE...
night ped lots of pictures to see tomorrow I reckon
1193. Drakoen
Sleet being reported in freeport, fl #TLHSpotter
1194. Dakster
Quoting 1189. PedleyCA:
Time to Bail - Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Dry- Dress in Layers and Don't Play in the ICE...


Have fun Pedley. See you tomorrow. Getting ready to do the same. Although I have the A/C on because it is only down to 66F outside.
Alright, I'm gone until next Wednesday.
Quoting 1194. Dakster:


Have fun Pedley. See you tomorrow. Getting ready to do the same. Although I have the A/C on because it is only down to 66F outside.


65.0 here, no AC. high was 72.9, low was 51.1
TRMM put out there final on Agathon.. about 46 inches total.. at one point they caught it falling at the rate of 6 inches an hr..
Quoting 1048. AGWSpecialist:

We are pumping more C02 into the atmosphere now more than ever. The Globe is rapidly warming. Rapidly. The weather is getting wackier. And it's only getting worse. Much, much worse.


Well at least you're not being hyperbolic
Quoting 1181. Andrebrooks:
Around the same date too.

Is this another event like the last two? Kronos and Leon? Or will this one be bigger. As of right now, the forecast in southeast TX is showing 60s for the weekend...should that change?
Quoting 1197. Skyepony:
TRMM put out there final on Agathon.. about 46 inches total.. at one point they caught it falling at the rate of 6 inches an hr..
6 inches per hr rates that's kinda high yes
Here's a wundercam from Atlanta..
Quoting 1201. Skyepony:
Here's a wundercam from Atlanta..



looks like the traffic cleared up
Quoting 1163. StormJunkie:
Ice starting to build on the trees in Charleston area. Looks like the worst may stay to the N of us unless the low moves a little further E.

Live webcam from Summerville area...Just a mile or two from where Nash is.


Yes myrtle beach grand strand is getting it hard, high amount of ice already, just got off phone with family.
Here's what it looks right before the serine scene of a closed I-85 adorned in ice & snow..



Quoting 1204. Skyepony:
Here's what it looks right before the serine scene of a closed I-85 adorned in ice & snow..



thats why its so traffic free its closed

everybody can speed skate to work in the am

if they have skates
Just got home.... most of the Charlotte area seemed to get just under an inch, with more towards the SE. Kind of disappointing snow totals, but the road conditions are not good. I-77 in the Charlotte area is like an ice rink. Have a bad feeling about the AM rush hour all over the southeast..... I know I'll be avoiding it
1208. ncstorm
In all my (insert years) have I ever seen this much sleet before..it looks like we had a good snow here when its nothing but ice..
Quoting 1208. ncstorm:
In all my (insert years) have I ever seen this much sleet before..it looks like we had a good snow here when its nothing but ice..


same here..
Quoting 1208. ncstorm:
In all my (insert years) have I ever seen this much sleet before..it looks like we had a good snow here when its nothing but ice..
when the sun comes out in a couple of days you can watch how fast it all melts

Quoting 1202. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



looks like the traffic cleared up


It has in a lot of places.
A few trouble spots left






moving north one county of atl:


Quoting 1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats why its so traffic free its closed

everybody can speed skate to work in the am

if they have skates

Looking at the Atlanta traffic cams..The road is either closed & clear or looks like a traffic jam.
nc gonna be the ice princess
1214. wxmod
China smog extending 5000 miles into the Pacific. MODIS satellite image

Quoting 1208. ncstorm:
In all my (insert years) have I ever seen this much sleet before..it looks like we had a good snow here when its nothing but ice..
I feel ya it looks like 2 inches of sleet mixing with snow here and have seen lightning a couple times
The sleet has gotten progressively heavier over the past 30 minutes; the wind has picked up as well. Pretty noisy when you're the side bedroom and all you hear is the little pellets hitting the glass.

Walked out to the road earlier...I wouldn't advise driving near Wilmington lol. It's a solid sheet of ice with a lot of sleet on top. Not to mention, by the time morning comes around, we should have an additional 2-4" of snow on top of the 1-2" of sleet on top of the .5" of ice.
Quoting 1210. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when the sun comes out in a couple of days you can watch how fast it all melts



The damage will be done long before the sun ever helps out.
Quoting 1215. absurfer:
I feel ya it looks like 2 inches of sleet mixing with snow here and have seen lightning a couple times
that could be power flashes
Wonder how much longer those cars that have been out 6-8+ hours on the road sitting in blocked traffic can stay gassed up...
Quoting 1185. CosmicEvents:
Weather's interesting in a few spots but there appears to be a serious situation continuing on the roads around Metro Atlanta that , as we approach midnight and it's not getting any warmer, there's lots of folks still out there now with nowhere to go and running low or out of gas.


You start talking 5 to 6" and that will happen with cars. Same deal for DC Jan 27 2011 - I left work for home before that snow got going.
This is our weekend forecast for southeast TX. If the models are starting to hint at another winter system...will these temperatures change??

Friday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind around 10 mph.

Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

Sunday A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
sry i was on the phone with the gf while i was enjoying the sleet and i can tell the ice has formed.. but no icicles.. that i could tell could form later.. just missing actual snow.. but man i hope ppl be careful right now and all the way into the next day.. yikes..
1223. yoboi
Quoting 1219. schistkicker:
Wonder how much longer those cars that have been out 6-8+ hours on the road sitting in blocked traffic can stay gassed up...


How long does a battery powered car stay running???
Quoting 1219. schistkicker:
Wonder how much longer those cars that have been out 6-8+ hours on the road sitting in blocked traffic can stay gassed up...


some cars down here dont have heaters.. or some could be broken.. specially its not safe to run ur car in park for that long.. Just depends how old the vehicle is and what kind.. but thats ridiculous
Good night....

final post here, tweets from Shawn Reynolds, producer at TWC
______________________

Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 12m
.@11AliveNews is reporting there are special needs students still on buses in metro ATL #Leon #GAwx
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More


Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 14m
It's after midnight and school buses are still stuck in this Atlanta traffic nightmare pic.twitter.com/zfYpYzAlK8

Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 9m
My friend who had to ditch his car & walk to a hotel says the lobby is packed & people are sleeping in the hall. No rooms. #Leon #GAwx
Quoting 1225. GeorgiaStormz:
Good night....

final post here, tweets from Shawn Reynolds, producer at TWC
______________________

Shawn Reynolds ‏@WCL_Shawn 12m
.@11AliveNews is reporting there are special needs students still on buses in metro ATL #Leon #GAwx
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More


Shawn Reynolds ‏@WCL_Shawn 14m
It's after midnight and school buses are still stuck in this Atlanta traffic nightmare pic.twitter.com/zfYpYzAlK8


that sucks.. I cant believe they waited and still going to wait to get to them.. I hear there is elderly r stuck with young childern as well.. Parents have to walk to school to get there kids and walk back another hour or two to get back to there car or head straight home..
Quoting 1223. yoboi:


How long does a battery powered car stay running???
with a full charge 8 hrs maybe longer if yer not moving
Quoting 1226. FLPandhandleJG:


that sucks.. I cant believe they waited and still going to wait to get to them.. I hear there is elderly r stuck with young childern as well.. Parents have to walk to school to get there kids and walk back another hour or two to get back to there car or head straight home..
what can anyone do we are at the mercy of the weather

but iam sure the you know what is going to hit the fan over this in the Atlanta area anyway
1229. emguy
Quoting 1218. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that could be power flashes


Sleet would not result in power flashes....actually it's your friend considering it is not freezing rain and just bounces off everything.

To that end...Sleet/ice pellets if heavy enough will build the conductive charge required for lightning.
Quoting 1229. emguy:


Sleet would not result in power flashes....actually it's your friend considering it is not freezing rain and just bounces off everything.

To that end...Sleet/ice pellets if heavy enough will build the conductive charge required for lightning.
maybe it was lightening but there is no lightening detection detected with the system I suppose could be weak isolated flashes not being picked up
Quoting 1228. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what can anyone do we are at the mercy of the weather

but iam sure the you know what is going to hit the fan over this in the Atlanta area anyway


Yeah I know.. if i live close i would grab whole bunch crap and put it on a sleigh and help the need.. if no1 wants to help those poor ppl and kids.. ya know
TRMM put out there final on Agathon.. about 46 inches total.. at one point they caught rain falling at the rate of 6 inches an hr..
Whats going on in Wilmington NC? Freezing rain? Sleet? Any snow yet?
Quoting 1232. FLPandhandleJG:


Yeah I know.. if i live close i would grab whole bunch crap and put it on a sleigh and help the need.. if no1 wants to help those poor ppl and kids.. ya know
they could at least get the kids on the buses something seen a report that there are even special needs children trap in among it all they should have been kept home
Quoting 1234. CarolinaHurricanes87:
Whats going on in Wilmington NC? Freezing rain? Sleet? Any snow yet?

I live in Rocky Point, and I doubt there's a difference in precip type there and here. It's still pouring sleet here. Snow line is farther west.
Quoting 1235. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they could at least get the kids on the buses something seen a report that there are even special needs children trap in among it all they should have been kept home


Yeah that part pisses me off and also there is sum elderly ppl out there shouldnt be out there..
1238. yoboi
Quoting 1227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with a full charge 8 hrs maybe longer if yer not moving


Really sad with people trapped out in the cold.. Not good at all...
I feel bad that I wasn't even originally forecast to get in on the event and yet it's performing better for me than a lot of folks down south who were hype for this. Coating so far with steady snow. NJ NWS might want to expand the WWA present.
Im going to have a lot of ice in the morning.. quite a bit of sleet mix in.. probably no snow or if it does then it wont be much.. got everything but snow.. most reports near me r just sleet except for a few spots tho.. Stay warm everyone and be safe.. Still trap ppl in Atlanta that pisses me off.. I hope they r okay..
1242. Drakoen
Quoting 1239. wxgeek723:
I feel bad that I wasn't even originally forecast to get in on the event and yet it's performing better for me than a lot of folks down south who were hype for this. Coating so far with steady snow. NJ NWS might want to expand the WWA present.


North Carolina, Virginia, the Delmarva Peninsula, into NJ really cashed in on the snow part of this storm. For the most part the story has been ice and sleet in the south with the exception of central and northern Mississippi, Alabama, and into Georgia.
Quoting 1238. yoboi:


Really sad with people trapped out in the cold.. Not good at all...

Something like a Prius idles & puts out heat longer per gallon of gas it has in it than a gas engine will. It cycles on..fills the battery, turns off the gas use & runs on battery til that is low & cycles on again. It's alot like a gas generator but more efficient.

Here's a guy that used his Prius to power his house after an ice storm. This guy did it after Frances.

Here's a fully electric car plowing & playing in the snow..


Quoting 1225. GeorgiaStormz:
Good night....

final post here, tweets from Shawn Reynolds, producer at TWC
______________________

Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 12m
.@11AliveNews is reporting there are special needs students still on buses in metro ATL #Leon #GAwx
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More


Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 14m
It's after midnight and school buses are still stuck in this Atlanta traffic nightmare pic.twitter.com/zfYpYzAlK8

Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 9m
My friend who had to ditch his car & walk to a hotel says the lobby is packed & people are sleeping in the hall. No rooms. #Leon #GAwx
Hopefully everybody gets through the night ok.
The area was under a full bore stormCon5...I guess it's hard to predict or even mention beforehand that a metropolitan area with interstates running through it and citizens with a history of  dealing poorly with icy roads could have a problem. Difficult, even for a weather authority. As it passes 1AM with cars and buses and school-kids still out there, in the cold.
Quoting 1244. Skyepony:

Something like a Prius idles & puts out heat longer per gallon of gas it has in it than a gas engine will. It cycles on..fills the battery, turns off the gas use & runs on battery til that is low & cycles on again. It's alot like a gas generator but more efficient.

Here's a guy that used his Prius to power his house after an ice storm. This guy did it after Frances.

Here's a fully electric car plowing & playing in the snow..

that's a good idea
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

AVIATION [29.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...MAIN BAND OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RADAR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION COMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CIGS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS AND THIS
CARRIED IN THE FORECAST. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR
CATEGORIES AT TIMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF -PL/-SN. PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 29.12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. /10
Quoting 1245. CosmicEvents:

Hopefully everybody gets through the night ok.
The area was under a full bore stormCon5...I guess it's hard to predict or even mention beforehand that a metropolitan area with interstates running through it and citizens with a history of  dealing poorly with icy roads could have a problem. Difficult, even for a weather authority. As it passes 1AM with cars and buses and school-kids still out there, in the cold.
4 and half hrs to go till first light
That was the most insane commute I've ever experienced, Left Georgia Tech at 1:30, I got home in Marietta around... 11:20PM, 9 hours and 50 minutes.

It looks surreal how many cars were abandoned. And they waited too long to cancel classes. for Colleges and Secondary schools.

I'm still shaking my head in bemusement and I'm exhausted.
Quoting 1250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Do you have the model link for the next system?
Cape Fear region looks to take this one in the neck. Certain spots reporting up to 0.75" ice/sleet accrual per Wilmington NWS.
1254. IKE
Sleet all over my front yard. Sleeting now.


Quoting 1252. Stormchaser121:

Do you have the model link for the next system?


Link
Quoting 1254. IKE:
Sleet all over my front yard. Sleeting now.
any freezing rain fall
1257. Drakoen
00Z ECMWF snowfall:

1259. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any freezing rain fall
Yes....now sleet.
1260. IKE
Very little snow.
think a lot got very little snow that was expecting it
my current conditions

Temperature:-0.9°F
Dewpoint:-10.5°F
Humidity:64%
Wind:SW 13 mph
Wind Chill: -20
1263. IKE

Quoting 1257. Drakoen:
00Z ECMWF snowfall:

Looks like a band of two inches goes right through Tallahassee. Being this close to the actual event, this model has more accuracy, no doubt.
1265. IKE
Sleet changing to snow here now....
1266. Drakoen
Quoting 1264. FLWaterFront:
Looks like a band of two inches goes right through Tallahassee. Being this close to the actual event, this model has more accuracy, no doubt.


Indeed. The latest HRRR model shows bands of precip moving through the central panhandle by 8am and continuing on for several hours. Whether or not that precip will fall as snow and sleet we will see in the morning!
A quick little snow burst here. Did not last long.
1269. Drakoen
Quoting 1268. PensacolaDoug:
A quick little snow burst here. Did not last long.


Assuming you live in Pensacola looks like there is more on the way according to radar:

1270. IKE
Snowing out. Defuniak Springs.
Quoting 1270. IKE:
Snowing out. Defuniak Springs.

Hey Ike. Is there really a possibility of this whole thing happening again next week? I keep hearing about it but...I dont see it. Im seeing 50s for highs and 40s for lows here in southeast TX for the weekend. Could change though...
Kure Beach with about 1 1/2 inches of bb-like sleet and a nice glaze of ice here. So much for 10 inches of snow. All precipitation has stopped & baby it's cold outside now. Our girl dogs ave been loving barreling down the stairs off the deck to rampage around the back yard but the Bouvier acts like he has never seen frozen precip & is very suspicious of his footing on the stairs. When it was sleeting hard several hours ago he acted the same pacey unsettles way he acts during thunder storms. I saw no lightning and heard no thunder - just that sound like sand being thrown on the northside windows. Apparently all done here?Off to bed - aiming to be as snug as a bug in a minute or two.
1273. IKE

Quoting Stormchaser121:

Hey Ike. Is there really a possibility of this whole thing happening again next week? I keep hearing about it but...I dont see it. Im seeing 50s for highs and 40s for lows here in southeast TX for the weekend. Could change though...
Haven't looked at forecast that far out yet,

2:13 a.m. - All roads from I-10 to the Alabama state
line are closed because of icy conditions, according to the Walton
County Sheriff's Office. Only people who have emergencies will be
allowed to travel.
Light Snow Fog/Mist

24°F

-4°C

Humidity84%
Wind SpeedN 9 G 22 mph
Barometer30.26 in (1024.7 mb)
Dewpoint20°F (-7°C)
Visibility6.00 mi
Wind Chill14°F (-10°C)

Last Update on 29 Jan 1:53 am CST

Current conditions at

Crestview, Sikes Airport (KCEW)

Lat: 30.79°N Lon: 86.52°W Elev: 190ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Quoting 1264. FLWaterFront:
Looks like a band of two inches goes right through Tallahassee. Being this close to the actual event, this model has more accuracy, no doubt.



Yeah, the ECMWF has overall performed better with the atmospheric profile, and it has performed much better with surface temps as the very cold numbers all the way to the gulf coast have verified.


We may just get snow here in Tallahassee afterall.
1276. Drakoen
Quoting 1275. Jedkins01:



Yeah, the ECMWF has overall performed better with the atmospheric profile, and it has performed much better with surface temps as the very cold numbers all the way to the gulf coast have verified.


We may just get snow here in Tallahassee afterall.


Morning hours looks like our best chance starting around 9am or so.
Quoting 1269. Drakoen:


Assuming you live in Pensacola looks like there is more on the way according to radar:




The radar is a bit northwest bias of the freezing line. The temp in Marianna which is supposedly still in the rainfall has fallen to 29 and has been getting freezing rain sleet.


Overcast

29°F

-2°C

Humidity89%
Wind SpeedN 15 mph
Barometer30.23 in (1023.7 mb)
Dewpoint26°F (-3°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill18°F (-8°C)

Last Update on 29 Jan 1:53 am CST

Current conditions at

Marianna Municipal Airport (KMAI)

Lat: 30.8°N Lon: 85.21°W Elev: 113ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather




Its worth noting that Marianna was just in the mid 30's steadily as of 3 hours ago and was stuck in the mid 30's for a long time then suddenly fell below 30.

It seems there is another sharp temperature gradient that is slowly advancing similar to earlier. Its likely temps will suddenly fall off below freezing at some point over the next few hours. Its hard to time it though as the line is advancing pretty slow but is making steady progress and temps are getting even colder upstream.


If we accumulate any ice at all in Tallahassee, even if its just 0.05 to 0.10, it would make the chances of accumulating snow better if we can get any.
Quoting 1275. Jedkins01:



Yeah, the ECMWF has overall performed better with the atmospheric profile, and it has performed much better with surface temps as the very cold numbers all the way to the gulf coast have verified.


We may just get snow here in Tallahassee afterall.
Looking at the radars in NW Florida, it appears that the moisture may be increasing again, with all those bands of precipitation moving to the NE off the Gulf. Once they get ashore around Pensacola, the radar at least is reading them as moderate-to-heavy snow.

If this continues through the night, those precipitation bands should line up further east as the arctic air continues to slowly push SE, allowing for a possible slot of fairly heavy snow to fall in bursts in parts of the Florida Panhandle. At least this is how I am reading it, though I could be mistaken of course. It just seems like something that was not forecast earlier is happening now.
Quoting 1278. FLWaterFront:
Looking at the radars in NW Florida, it appears that the moisture may be increasing again, with all those bands of precipitation moving to the NE off the Gulf. Once they get ashore around Pensacola, the radar at least is reading them as moderate-to-heavy snow.

If this continues through the night, those precipitation bands should line up further east as the arctic air continues to slowly push SE, allowing for a possible slot of fairly heavy snow to fall in bursts in parts of the Florida Panhandle. At least this is how I am reading it, though I could be mistaken of course. It just seems like something that was not forecast earlier is happening now.



Hopefully that will be the case. Model runs since last night have been trending better for frozen precip along with accumulating snow. We shall see...

Well its time to head to bed after finishing up homework with a ton more to due tomorrow, hopefully I'll wake up to a completely icy mess so not only will it be fun to take pictures of but also that FSU might decide to extend cancellations for the whole day.



Also, one more thing:

The shortwave near southern Texas that will bring the next round looks pretty impressive right now. In fact, it looks more impressive than the first piece of energy.

Should be an interesting day indeed around here :)
This band that just moved thru had a lot of sleet with a little snow. I live less than two miles straight line from the gulf on the west side of Pensacola.
Got off the phone with someone I know in Atlanta and they said it was a terrible snow storm with traffic. Austin was bad in icing with traffic too in the morning. Meanwhile here in Houston we were expecting heavy ice impacts (~0.25inch ice) 1-2 days out from the event all day today. Turned out better than expected with the icing not as bad as Friday was. Out of curiosity, what happened? I too would also like to know whats gonna happen next week. Local news puts us in Houston with thunder storms for next week. Hope all is well with those who went through the brunt of the storm. Stay safe out there. DO NOT DRIVE ON ICY ROADS. Cheers to those whom are enjoying a rare event in unusual places. Enjoy it safely while it lasts.
Quoting 1280. Jedkins01:



Also, one more thing:

The shortwave near southern Texas that will bring the next round looks pretty impressive right now. In fact, it looks more impressive than the first piece of energy.

Should be an interesting day indeed around here :)


Temp went from 60 at 3am to 48 at 3:53am here on the northside of Orlando. Also of note the latest models don't bring that energy across FL until Thursday night or Friday. GFS shows 3 days of heavy rain across C FL.

I just woke up to see how the roads are out here in Nola and Atlanta and see no improvements in Atlanta at all! Still Gridlock 14 hours later! OMG!
This is one impressive disturbance coming across S Texas.

Now there's a winter weather advisory for Taylor and Lafayette counties in the Florida Big Bend.

FLZ028-029-128-300015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WW.Y.0001.140129T1500Z-140130T0600Z/
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-COASTAL TAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...KEATON BEACH...
STEINHATCHEE
401 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1
AM EST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...STARTING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO ONE TENTH
INCH. A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF SLEET OR SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AFTER
SUNSET.

* MAIN IMPACT...ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY DEVELOP
PATCHES OF ICE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Seems as if the forecast for frozen precipitation has been creeping further and further south and east over the past day and a half. Interesting to note that the official forecast for areas of Central Florida roughly north of the I-4 corridor calls for low temps around 40F tomorrow night with rain. If the low temps in some of these areas wind up just a few degrees colder than that.. I dunno, but it seems possible that some places in peninsular Florida could get some flurries or ice pellets before all is said and done. I know it seems unlikely still but a lot of things have happened with this storm that were not predicted to happen until the last minute, most notably the snow in the Atlanta Metro which has utterly crippled the road network there as well as the school system and basically the whole infrastructure.
1287. LargoFl
Good Morning! front is or has just passed me..windy and a cold rain..
1288. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
401 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM EST /12 PM
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TAYLOR AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

.A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN SPREADING INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IN SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CHANGING TO AND THEN ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
ICE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
TIFTON TO BLAKELY TO DEFUNIAK SPRINGS. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOWER...THOUGH A TRACE OF SLEET OR SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS TALLAHASSEE. THE COMBINATION OF ICE
ACCRETION AND SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

FLZ028-029-128-300015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WW.Y.0001.140129T1500Z-140130T0600Z/
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-COASTAL TAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...KEATON BEACH...
STEINHATCHEE
401 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1
AM EST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...STARTING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO ONE TENTH
INCH. A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF SLEET OR SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AFTER
SUNSET.

* MAIN IMPACT...ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY DEVELOP
PATCHES OF ICE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

1289. LargoFl
Birmingham ALA................
In Atlanta now




1291. LargoFl
1292. LargoFl
great Pics there wes!!..I guess we will hear alot of horror stories today gee,hope everyone got home safe
1293. LargoFl
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES...WILL BECOME ALL
SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL COMBINED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

* TIMING...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 20S THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY WARM TO
NEAR 30 THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. DANGEROUS TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED AS ROADS REMAIN ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW COVERED.
THERE MAY BE POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATION ON POWER LINES
AS WINDS GUST UP TO 20 MPH. VERY LITTLE MELTING EXPECTED TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

1294. LargoFl
Early Good Morning from Tallahassee. No frozen precipitation yet here by it has been drizzling all night. Lots of additional moisture, in whatever form, is going to continue to stream over Florida today regardless. If you look closely at the WV and infared loops, you can see that "secondary" low spinning in the Atlantic just North of the Bamahas. That will help bring some additional rain to the Peninsuala of Florida but too far South for sleet/snow.

Will check back from work later after my cat nap.


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:02 pm EST on Wednesday 29 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cairns to Mackay

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Mackay
to St Lawrence, extending inland through the eastern interior north of Clermont.

At 7:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 470 kilometres northeast of
Townsville and 485 kilometres east of Cairns and moving southwest at 12
kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwestwards direction and
develop before crossing the Queensland coast between Innisfail and Proserpine
on Friday morning.

A strong ridge of high pressure extends through the Coral Sea to the south of
the tropical low. The two systems are currently combining to generate GALES at
times along much of the east coast between Cairns and Mackay. Winds are
expected to increase further in this area with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120
kilometres per hour developing during Thursday and may extend to adjacent
inland areas including Charters Towers and Moranbah and south to St Lawrence
overnight Thursday and Friday morning.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts
tonight and should continue into Thursday.

Coastal residents between Innisfail and Hamilton Island are specifically warned
of the dangerous storm tide as the developing tropical low approaches the
coast, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. The sea is likely
to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves
and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions
regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cairns and Innisfail and also between Hamilton
Island and St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday.
Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cairns and from St Lawrence to Gladstone.

People between Cairns and Mackay should take precautions and listen to the next
advice at 11pm.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

People between Mackay and St Lawrence, and inland through the eastern interior
north of Clermont, should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 150.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Wednesday 29 January.
1297. Drakoen
Just hit the freezing mark. Sleet and Snow on the way.

The Weather Channel is in Atlanta. Atlanta's Mayor says they were "caught by suprise" by the snow.

TWC was predicting 1-3" for Atlanta. How much did they get?

Or was it just the ice that caused the issues?
1299. Drakoen
Quoting 1298. Sfloridacat5:
The Weather Channel is in Atlanta. Atlanta's Mayor says they were "caught by suprise" by the snow.

TWC was predicting 1-3" for Atlanta. How much did they get?


I don't think they were caught by surprised by the amount more like caught by surprise of the impact. They had time to prepare as they were under a winter storm warning .
Temp went from 69 at 2am to 46 at 6am here near Orlando.

46 and rain. Expect heavy ran for the next 3 days over C FL.

Quoting 1290. bigwes6844:
In Atlanta now



Quoting 1289. LargoFl:
Birmingham ALA................


This is what you get when you do not listen to warnings (weather or climate).
4 inches of snow in new haven,conn this morning
Here in Gulf Shores, AL, it's an ice skating rink. A word to the wise....keep your vehicles away from ice that is melting from trees and power lines. Otherwise you are going to have huge dents on your vehicles. Park away from trees and from falling ice. We have numerous trees down or bent to the ground from all the ice. 23 degrees currently. Stay home....let the authorities do their jobs without sightseers hinder their process. Thanks.
Morning all.

All we've had so far in the Charleston area is an ice event. Light snow flurries coming down now though, and possibly a little more on the way through the day.

The live webcam is up and running. Daybreak should provide an interesting view!
Quoting 1302. drg0dOwnCountry:





This is what you get when you do not listen to warnings (weather or climate).


I guess everyone in the city thought thet could leave work when it started snowing.
But it's still unbelieveable that that all those people haven't made it home yet.
1307. Drakoen
Quoting 1305. StormJunkie:
Morning all.

All we've had so far in the Charleston area is an ice event. Light snow flurries coming down now though, and possibly a little more on the way through the day.

The live webcam is up and running. Daybreak should provide an interesting view!


I can see your snow! Congrats!
Quoting 1301. StormTrackerScott:
46 and rain. Expect heavy ran for the next 3 days over C FL.

Morning, You are colder than my house. thats a switch. i have 51 and misty.
Quoting 1302. drg0dOwnCountry:





This is what you get when you do not listen to warnings (weather or climate).
Totally Agree. Plenty of warning. I think the snow caused more icing than the people thought it would be in Atlanta.
1310. Drakoen
Heavy precip working its way inland. Right on cue.


Latest ECMWF Jan 29 0Z (click to expand)



Latest NAM Jan 29 06Z (click to expand)



Quoting 1310. Drakoen:
Heavy precip working its way inland. Right on cue.


What is your temperature? I-10 closed in Pensacola.
1313. Drakoen
Quoting 1311. BaltimoreBrian:
Latest ECMWF Jan 29 0Z (click to expand)



Latest NAM Jan 29 06Z (click to expand)





Didn't realize the NAM had that much snow forecasted. 2 inches? lol. With some support from the ECMWF. There is a strong band working its way on shore now so we'll see.
1314. Drakoen
Quoting 1312. gulfshoresAL:
What is your temperature? I-10 closed in Pensacola.


Last time I checked we were at 32. Reports from the band of precip to our west is mainly snow so we will see.
From the Atlanta discussion yesterday at 4:11 a.m. I'm not posting the whole discussion because it is very long.

ALL THESE ACCUMULATION...
OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND...WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE
CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA
.

There was no justification for what happened. The winter storm warning was issued at 4:11 a.m. for Atlanta and the metro counties. It's the job of school administrators to read these when deciding whether to open schools. Keeping schools open in a city like Atlanta not well equipped to deal with snow on a day when a winter storm warning was issued was inexcusable.
1316. Drakoen
Hi resolution NAM looks very interesting

1317. Drakoen
I don't want to get my hopes up but the latest HRRR model run is crazy for the panhandle with a continuous stream of moisture whether that's going to be freezing rain, sleet, or snow remains to be seen.
Drakoen the NAM actually forecasts 4-5" for you. That would be fun.
1319. Drakoen
Quoting 1318. BaltimoreBrian:
Drakoen the NAM is actually forecast 4-5" for you. That would be fun.


lol crazy NAM
1320. StormWx
My uncle who has normally an hour commute in Atlanta took 14.5 hours to get home yesterday/today. He left along with everyone else at 1:30pm YESTERDAY and he just posted he walked in the door at 5:30AM TODAY. Lucky for him he had plenty of gas and a phone charger to update the family. I hope we get some aerial views today of all the stranded cars. I read numerous stories of people walking 5-10 miles home because the roads were literally parking lots.

Its hard to believe that in this day and age with all the warnings that are posted, and social media, that literally thousands of people can get stranded in a meer 2-3 inches of snow in a major metropolitan area.
1321. beell
Getting there, Drak. Still a little warm for good snow but CAA above the surface should be an ongoing process.

TLH morning sounding



TLH sounding text
1322. Drakoen
Quoting 1321. beell:
Getting there, Drak. Still a little warm for good snow but CAA above the surface should be an ongoing process.

TLH morning sounding



TLH sounding text


That warm nose should rapidly cool as the band of precip approaches us. You can see the backing in the wind vectors indicating cold air advection.

I know you love the models. What's your take on the NAM and HRRR?
Good Morning; again. Beat the traffic into work in Downtown Tallahassee and the little one at home with Mom (no school). Ironic to have a "snow day" for kids in Florida schools in North Florida.

Surrounded by windows so I will let Yall know if/when I see the first sign of flurries or sleet later today.

Actually, later this afternoon into tomorrow morning might be the most dangerous period of time for driving in these parts (North Florida). With standing water from any rain, a high today in the mid-thirties, and a hard freeze overnight, any puddled areas on the roads and highways will freeze overnight.

Black Ice will be pervasive on the streets over the next 24 hours in many parts of North Florida. Be very careful on the drive home this afternoon if you are at work today.
1324. beell
Quoting 1322. Drakoen:


That warm nose should rapidly cool as the band of precip approaches us. You can see the backing in the wind vectors indicating cold air advection.

I know you love the models. What's your take on the NAM and HRRR?


I love the models like anyone else I suppose. Extrapolation of sat loops will only do so much. Goat bones and tea leaves have limited results past that. Beyond that, models are a baseline. A starting place. Almost any of them will work given a decent synoptic analysis at all levels.

The HRRR is a great tool for getting a handle on convective mode for severe. Not much experience in the cold season. NAM excels at shallow cold air events in the center of the country.

Now, if you were talking about those two model's specifics for this particular event, I have not looked this morning, lol.
1325. Drakoen
Quoting 1324. beell:


I love the models like anyone else I suppose. Extrapolation of sat loops will only do so much. Goat bones and tea leaves have limted results past that. Beyond that, models are a baseline. A starting place. Almost any of them will work given a decent synoptic analysis at all levels.

The HRRR is a great tool for getting a handle on convective mode for severe. Not much experience in the cold season. NAM excels at shallow cold air events in the center of the country.

Now, if you were talking about those two model's specifics for this particular event, I have not looked this morning, lol.


Bolded was my question. You're not underestimating my knowledge of the NAM and HRRR are you? ;)
Here are portions of the am Tally NNW discussion on the icing issue for Florida and Southern Georgia.

Our friends in the Panhandle really need to stay off the road if at all possible today into tomorrow:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
447 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2014

...WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ICING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
There`s a lot going on this morning so I will attempt to be brief.The arctic airmass continues to pour into the region with strong cold advection resulting in temperatures dropping through the mid
20s across Southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle. With continued precip developing south of Mobile and spreading eastward running into this very cold airmass, it looks like the potential for
significant icing will continue in the Florida Panhandle and perhaps into portions of Southwestern Georgia.
The cold arctic airmass becomes much deeper across Southern Alabama and as far north as Albany where a lot of the precipitation has changed to snow. Further east and south toward Valdosta and Tallahassee, temperatures have not yet reached the freezing mark, but over the last hour, we have made noticeable progress with the latest observation from our office at 430 am ET of 34 degrees. The models have been showing for the last several cycles that temperatures in the eastern half of the region would drop toward freezing by daybreak and likely stay below freezing into the late morning hours. This indeed seems to be happening now and increases our concern for some icing into the Florida Big Bend and South Central Georgia areas this morning. Liquid precipitation rates are around one tenth inch per hour in the heavier bands that are moving into the Florida Panhandle, thus the potential for a quick glaze to one tenth inch of ice accretion is easily possible. Given that this precipitation will be shifting eastward with time, but of potentially longer duration than previously indicated in the models, the winter storm warning has been extended to 7 pm EST for a good portion of Southern Georgia.
Additionally, a winter weather advisory has been posted for Taylor and Lafayette counties in the Florida Big Bend.
1327. beell
Quoting 1325. Drakoen:


Bolded was my question. You're not underestimating my knowledge of the NAM and HRRR are you? ;)


Oh, gee, Drak. In the interest of clear communication I gave you my broad opinion and tagged it with a clarification in the specific. Your knowledge was not an issue for discussion.
1328. Drakoen
Quoting 1327. beell:


Oh, gee, Drak. In the interest of clear communication I gave you my broad opinion and tagged it with a clarification in the specific. Your knowledge was not an issue for discussion.


I've been up all night. So just a little on edge LOL.
While the Midwest is definitely cold, it's good to see that the worst predictions didn't come true. In fact, not even close. For instance, it was feared Chicago might reach near-record levels last night, perhaps -20F or lower. But the current temperature is -2. Still cold, of course, but nothing like what was feared.

Farther south--much farther south--I see that's it's snowing along the lower Rio Grande Valley. Chilly chilis...
Quoting 1328. Drakoen:


I've been up all night. So just a little on edge LOL.
Now that it's daylight....lots of trees and tree limbs down. Lots of birds looking for food. I have cracked corn to feed them. Dozens of cardinals in back yard. Stay safe.
14 hour snow forecast from 10Z Jan 29 to 00Z Jan 30. Click image to expand.





I wonder what the low over the lower Rio Grande valley will do as it crosses FL tonight.
We received about 6" of fluffy white stuff overnight in Patuxent River, MD. No freezing rain; no sleet; just snow.

Now that we've had our appetizer, the main dish can be served. I hope the wait is short.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 21 degrees and still frozen out there. Our hard freeze and winter weather advisory has been extended to ten am. Since 'that which I am not speaking to' refused to work, I am so very glad I didn't lose electric.

Vent: I am so annoyed at hearing how the teachers are having a wonderful time making the children have a fun vacation with sleeping over in the schools. Really? Have they spoke to any of the teachers? I'm a teacher. It would be a nightmare to spend the night at school with our children. Many of the younger ones would be crying that they want to go home and they want their moms. There are no beds to sleep in, only cold floors. Kindergartners would have inch thick, possibly two in thick nap mats, no one else would. Only kindergartners might have thin small blankets. There are children and teachers who are on medications that are not at school. There are teachers who are single parents and whose children don't go to the school they teach at. Now they have to worry if their children were able to get home. I don't even want to think about the teachers who have junior high and high school kids to deal with! Vent over.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and diced ham or bacon, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
1337. guygee
Quoting 1243. Astrometeor:
Hello sweet moisture:



This forecasts merits a Winter Weather Advisory?
Real Pacific airmass flowing inland over the coast ... end of the monster ridge?
Click to expand

Wacky weather. Wacky weather indeed. A snow and ice storm like this that far south. Well, as long as we continue to pump millions upon millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, it's only gonna get wackier.

Much wackier.
We're loading the dice on extreme weather events. We're in uncharted territory.
1342. guygee
Quoting 1329. Neapolitan:
While the Midwest is definitely cold, it's good to see that the worst predictions didn't come true. In fact, not even close. For instance, it was feared Chicago might reach near-record levels last night, perhaps -20F or lower. But the current temperature is -2. Still cold, of course, but nothing like what was feared.

Farther south--much farther south--I see that's it's snowing along the lower Rio Grande Valley. Chilly chilis...
If we has seen this weather pattern of the past few weeks back in the 1970's or '80's many more records would have fallen. Amazing cold pool hanging out around James Bay for weeks, yet no freeze at my coastal FL residence this winter ... and the worst of winter is closing out over the FL peninsula with the retrograding trough. I'm glad to get out of this winter with my tropical garden still alive.
Rain coming for me now!
All that beautiful moisture just off to my south...
Quoting 1341. AGWSpecialist:
We're loading the dice on extreme weather events. We're in uncharted territory.
No one biting this morning, huh? Tough luck, that. You might want to head back to Rood's forum for the attention you want...
Quoting 1330. drg0dOwnCountry:
Vehicles left abandoned on highways in Birmingham, AL...

Looking at that picture you posted the link too at 1330.
It makes me wonder what would happen if they got some real snow at about 10 inches and it stayed below freezing for a few days?
There would probably be a catastrophe in those areas based on the lack of knowledge of how to behave in snow conditions.
The radar returns at the tip of the Miss River Delta appear to be migrating north ever so slightly. if that trend continues, it wont be over for the P'cola area.
Quoting 1345. Neapolitan:
No one biting this morning, huh? Tough luck, that. You might want to head back to Rood's forum for the attention you want...

Dr. Masters allows us to talk about weather and climate and how the two intermingle. He often has climate forums all the time. Sometimes it's hard to take for the deniers who can't accept the consequences of a rapidly warming globe.
Another thing to note that has been very very unusual is the record 60 in Alaska. In January? Unheard of. And the deep freeze in the Midwest. There are lots of factors in play that are messing with the climate that we are used to. The new normal is here I think.

The good thing is coastal SC didn't end up with as much snow as the models were once predicting. They did get quite a bit of ice though...
Quoting 1333. BaltimoreBrian:
I wonder what the low over the lower Rio Grande valley will do as it crosses FL tonight.


It's not going to cross FL until Friday morning. Very long rain event on tap for C FL. I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas get 3" to 5" of rain.

Quoting 1342. guygee:
If we has seen this weather pattern of the past few weeks back in the 1970's or '80's many more records would have fallen. Amazing cold pool hanging out around James Bay for weeks, yet no freeze at my coastal FL residence this winter ... and the worst of winter is closing out over the FL peninsula with the retrograding trough. I'm glad to get out of this winter with my tropical garden still alive.

All that Arctic ice that used to be up there has since vanished. You are right. I think many areas would have been 2-5 degrees colder if this same pattern occurred back then when there was so much more ice up there.

This is uncharted territory. We are loading the dice--increasing the odds--for these unusual Dixie snow and ice systems to occur with more frequency. And unfortunately--more severity.
Quoting 1347. PensacolaDoug:
The radar returns at the tip of the Miss River Delta appear to be migrating north ever so slightly. if that trend continues, it wont be over for the P'cola area.


There's a powerful upper level short wave heading ENE off the south Texas coast now. I don't know what it will do to the precipitation band as it heads towards northern FL.
I thought the upper level short wave was going to whip along very quickly Scott.
CPC is saying not much relief in sight. Very strange to have this much cold spill down from the north...

1355. Drakoen
Quoting 1350. StormTrackerScott:


It's not going to cross FL until Friday morning. Very long rain event on tap for C FL. I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas get 3" to 5" of rain.



The moisture will be crossing over on Thursday as the 500mb low lags behind the surface low as always.
Quoting 1353. BaltimoreBrian:
I thought the upper level short wave was going to whip along very quickly Scott.


It was a couple of days ago but since yesterday the models have really slowed it down. Once the shortwave gets into the Gulf the main trough lifts out and leaves it behind. This set up means serious rains across FL. You can already see all the convection now flaring up in the Western & Central Gulf.

Scott that's not the same short wave that's exiting Texas now. It will cross the northern Florida peninsula tonight and another short wave will cross the central peninsula Friday morning.

From the Tampa wx discussion:

TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING BY...AND
EVEN CLOSER THAN THE ONE TODAY
. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD SWATH OF
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SEEING
THIS SETUP AS WELL...AS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST RAIN
COVERAGE AFTER DARK. HAVE ESSENTIALLY JUST GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 60-70%
RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE TO "BROAD BRUSH" THE FORECAST
THAT MUCH...BUT THE PATTERN ALMOST INSISTS UPON IT. SO...IT WILL BE
A COOL...SHOWERY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE
40S...WITH NEAR 50 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND IN THE 30S UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY. AS WAS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
WET-BULB EFFECTS BRING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND EVER SO CLOSE TO SOME FREEZING RAIN POCKETS. SPENT ANOTHER
NIGHT SEARCHING OVER SOUNDING AFTER SOUNDING...AND IT SEEMS THAT FOR
NOW...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE ANY PRECIP IS
FALLING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
.
1358. Drakoen
FSU still calling for a half day as of 8:15am. Hopefully the roads don't ice over or it's going to be a mess.
Quoting 1345. Neapolitan:
No one biting this morning, huh? Tough luck, that. You might want to head back to Rood's forum for the attention you want...

By the way, that record high, low graph you posted in Rood's forum (Post 74) was incredible. I still can't get over that. Times they are a changing. We are getting hot. Thanks CO2 for doing this.
Quoting 1357. BaltimoreBrian:
Scott that's not the same short wave that's exiting Texas now. It will cross the northern Florida peninsula tonight and another short wave will cross the central peninsula Friday morning.

From the Tampa wx discussion:

TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING BY...AND
EVEN CLOSER THAN THE ONE TODAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD SWATH OF
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SEEING
THIS SETUP AS WELL...AS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST RAIN
COVERAGE AFTER DARK. HAVE ESSENTIALLY JUST GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 60-70%
RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE TO "BROAD BRUSH" THE FORECAST
THAT MUCH...BUT THE PATTERN ALMOST INSISTS UPON IT. SO...IT WILL BE
A COOL...SHOWERY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE
40S...WITH NEAR 50 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND IN THE 30S UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY. AS WAS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
WET-BULB EFFECTS BRING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND EVER SO CLOSE TO SOME FREEZING RAIN POCKETS. SPENT ANOTHER
NIGHT SEARCHING OVER SOUNDING AFTER SOUNDING...AND IT SEEMS THAT FOR
NOW...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE ANY PRECIP IS
FALLING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.


Nope that's it over Texas. By the way these folks at the NWS in Tampa are a little lost because if you look at the GFS you can clearly see what is going on.

NOW


Friday morning.
Quoting 1358. Drakoen:
FSU still calling for a half day as of 8:15am. Hopefully the roads don't ice over or it's going to be a mess.


Any ice by you yet? Temps I see are at 32 to 33 so there should be some freezing rain by you now.
1362. Drakoen
Cannot seem to get anything but moderate rain here at the moment.
1363. Drakoen
We have freezing rain now. Ice on branches of trees and wooden surfaces. Glazing on car shields.
Quoting 1363. Drakoen:
We have freezing rain now. Ice on branches of trees and wooden surfaces. Glazing on car shields.


Nice!
Well just woke up here in Pace florida... And the ground is white along with a temp of 21 degrees and everything is frozen including the roads from all the rain we had last night.
Quoting 1363. Drakoen:
We have freezing rain now. Ice on branches of trees and wooden surfaces. Glazing on car shields.


It was too cold in North Florida so South and Central Florida decided to break off onto their own tropical Island! lol
Snowbound in N.E. North Carolina. Roads are drifting over hard to see where the road is,had to turn around on way to work this morning. 18 degrees,Global warming will resume after the snow is gone,I'm sure of it!
1369. Drakoen
Freezing rain and sleet at the moment now.
1370. ncstorm
If we got snow..please let me know where because I sure didnt see it or has anyone seen any accumulations of it in Wilmington..all we have is sleet..

"Historical Ice Storm" for NC/SC..Widespread Power outages? this was a bust..we went from maps from NWS from 4-6 inches of snow to under 2 inches snow/sleet..

Get rid of snow depth maps as they are misleading to the public and someone fix the damn weather models to where they can predict an event..I mean with them nowcasting the event they still got it wrong..and this just wasn't "oh its winter and its hard to predict those events" the past hurricane season they failed..is anyone besides me not upset about the fact that we have terrible weather technology?

and yes..I'm crying in my corn flakes looking at sleet and not snow outside my window..

Latest 12Z NAM simulated radar. Look at C FL seems as if we are the battle ground of Arctic air north and summer south.

Radar shows precip heading back into my area in an hour or so. Zero chance of precip today in our forecast. Our local office may want to re-think that. as the trend is my friend.
Quoting 1369. Drakoen:
Freezing rain and sleet at the moment now.


I am about 10 blocks east of FSU........Still waiting it to arrive over here.............. :)
1374. Drakoen
Mostly sleet now
Quoting 1370. ncstorm:
If we got snow..please let me know where because I sure didnt see it or has anyone seen any accumulations of it in Wilmington..all we have is sleet..

"Historical Ice Storm" for NC/SC..Widespread Power outages? this was a bust..we went from maps from NWS from 4-6 inches of snow to under 2 inches snow/sleet..

Get rid of snow depth maps as they are misleading to the public and someone fix the damn weather models to where they can predict an event..I mean with them nowcasting the event they still got it wrong..and this just wasn't "oh its winter and its hard to predict those events" the past hurricane season they failed..is anyone besides me not upset about the fact that we have terrible weather technology?

and yes..I'm crying in my corn flakes looking at sleet and not snow outside my window..



The snow depth maps are not an official forecast and therefore should not be taken as such. If you live in southeastern NC your predominant weather was forecasted to be ice and sleet.

Quoting 1371. StormTrackerScott:
Latest 12Z NAM simulated radar. Look at C FL seems as if we are the battle ground of Arctic air north and summer south.



Which, if it persists, could make for 'interesting times' in tornado alley this coming spring.
1376. Drakoen
Quoting 1373. weathermanwannabe:


I am about 10 blocks east of FSU........Still waiting it to arrive over here.............. :)


It's coming soon. You should have freezing rain by now. Check the tree branches and wooden surfaces.
That traffic mess is just about over. Throughout the day people may finally start moving. Still some moderate to high volume and people who have been driving for 12hrs plus but nothing as horrible as before. Stranded motorists/school busses are being helped out by ems and the national guard this morning, so many of those kids may finally get home. The ones at the schools likely stay put

Thousands of abandoned cars and so forth everywhere.
It would suck to have gone to school yesterday morning only to still be on a school bus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
That traffic mess is just about over. still some moderate volume and people who have been driving for 12hrs plus but nothing as horrible as before. Stranded motorists/school busses are being helped out by ems and the national guard this morning, so many of those kids may finally get home. The ones at the schools likely stay put


Over here in the Augusta area of Georgia. Scratching my head wondering what the happenned to you guys over there? We had not near the problems.
Quoting 1379. Thunderfan:


Over here in the Augusta area of Georgia. Scratching my head wondering what the happenned to you guys over there? We had not near the problems.


everybody here got stuck on the ice because everybody was driving at once. volume no treating hard to treat because of volume = mess.

Once people got into trouble there was no hope

I know people who are still on the road stranded, and a friend who this morning left her school buss and walked. One of the few left. NAtional guard and ems has been doing work feeding and transporting.
Quoting 1378. GeorgiaStormz:
It would suck to have gone to school yesterday morning only to still be on a school bus


I'm sure they moved the kids into some kind of shelter. My condolences go to the bus driver who would still be in charge of the kids. Not fun!
Quoting 1375. yonzabam:


Which, if it persists, could make for 'interesting times' in tornado alley this coming spring.


I agree! Look at these temps for Orlando this weekend as Winter ends here in C & S FL. Looks like a year without a freeze in Orlando

22 deg. and everything covered with sleet/ice this morning. Major causeways and draw bridges all closed. They are predicting that we may get above freezing for a couple of hours this afternoon. Not long enough to melt what is on the ground, and what does melt will freeze back as black ice. Then we have 70 deg, and TS on Sat. and Sun.

Can't believe what I'm reading this morning about kids stranded at school on even on school buses in Alabama and Georgia. What were those school officials thinking. They knew what was coming. I would be one pissed off parent.
1384. LargoFl
Quoting 1367. SFLWeatherman:
It was too cold in North Florida so South and Central Florida decided to break off onto their own tropical Island! lol
LMAO..GOOD ONE
1385. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE GULF
WATERS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTH...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTRA
CAUTION NAVIGATING THESE WATERS UNTIL THE FOG LIFTS. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH WILL PRODUCE IMPROVING VISIBILITY AFTER
SUNRISE.

FOG COVERS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...
CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM. THE FOG WILL BE
LIFTING...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES. DO TO
SLOWER DRIVING SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...ALLOW EXTRA TIME THIS MORNING TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHERLY WINDS...IN THE WAKE A COLD SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

09/RKR
Quoting 1381. aislinnpaps:


I'm sure they moved the kids into some kind of shelter. My condolences go to the bus driver who would still be in charge of the kids. Not fun!


Many of them has. Isolated busses are still out there depending on if the national guard/police has reached them. Not many left though. lot of cars...abandoned cars litter roadways, even major ones.
Downtown Orlando.



Universal

1388. LargoFl
Quoting 1356. StormTrackerScott:


It was a couple of days ago but since yesterday the models have really slowed it down. Once the shortwave gets into the Gulf the main trough lifts out and leaves it behind. This set up means serious rains across FL. You can already see all the convection now flaring up in the Western & Central Gulf.

well this being our dry season any rain we get now is a blessing
1389. LargoFl
Quoting 1386. GeorgiaStormz:


Many of them has. Isolated busses are still out there depending on if the national guard/police has reached them. Not many left though. lot of cars...abandoned cars litter roadways, even major ones.


I hope they still have gas then and that the kids are dressed properly. You would not believe how many kids came to school on Monday here with short sleeve uniform tops and no coats! It was about 56 when we went to school, but when school was let out it was in the upper 30's! Parents can be ridiculous sometimes! It was all over the news that the temps would be dropping and a winter storm was coming.
Got 6 inches of snow here in Salisbury, MD. Looks nice. Any word on that storm they are predicting for next week?
1392. LargoFl
yes everything is soaked here by me now....
Quoting 1390. aislinnpaps:


I hope they still have gas then and that the kids are dressed properly. You would not believe how many kids came to school on Monday here with short sleeve uniform tops and no coats! It was about 56 when we went to school, but when school was let out it was in the upper 30's! Parents can be ridiculous sometimes! It was all over the news that the temps would be dropping and a winter storm was coming.


I'm surprised to the fact that most schools were open despite the fact of the warnings, advisories, and predictions of winter precipitation
1394. LargoFl
Quoting 1391. ObxNative:
Got 6 inches of snow here in Salisbury, MD. Looks nice. Any word on that storm they are predicting for next week?
here is GFS for tuesday,this goes up the atlantic coastline thru thursday
Situation in Atlanta is concerning. Local government is saying they're calling out national guard.

This is a good idea. But, The guardsmen were not on standby before the storm. So local individuals need to get to armory to get their stuff, and then drive to where they are needed.

But, for just a little planning...
Quoting 1372. PensacolaDoug:
Radar shows precip heading back into my area in an hour or so. Zero chance of precip today in our forecast. Our local office may want to re-think that. as the trend is my friend.

Bring it, Bring it!
Thanks. Yesterday someone said models were showing as much as 2 feet in our area. Im not a believer in long range models. But its always fun leading up to the day.

Quoting 1394. LargoFl:
here is GFS for tuesday,this goes up the atlantic coastline thru thursday
NAM precip accum out 42hrs. C FL gets dumped on. This will likely cause some low lying flooding issues.

Thursday Night the heavy rain continues to get funneled this way off the SE Gulf.

1400. LargoFl
Looks like rain for the south,wintery hmm the other side of DC...
1402. LargoFl
wow a wet next couple of days here alright.........
1403. LargoFl
Just went to survey the ice outside. All we got last night/yesterday was freezing rain/sleet/with minimal snow mixed with either of the two.

Trees seem to have an eight of an inch or less of ice: not enough to cause damage. (Areas north and west of us though got a lot more precip on the radar, though, and I imagine it was much worse there)

Sleet fell enough to partially cover the ground white in some areas.

Walked around with a Ushanka on my head (needed it) and took pictures in my neighborhood. Despite the head covering, my face was starting to get numb; I then came inside and am getting warm now.

Oh, and the temp has stayed at 23 degrees all morning till now! Usually when it would get that cold in the winter here, it would be cloudless and bone dry; I'd much rather have it like it is now though.

Pictures will come a little later.
1405. LargoFl
Quoting 1344. PensacolaDoug:
All that beautiful moisture just off to my south...

In a nutshell, what are the "accumulations" you got there like?
If we can get some daytime heating on Friday then we could see strong to severe thunderstorms across C & S FL as temps are expected to push near 80 with dewpoints in the low 70's. Then we add in the lift and impressive lift at that.


I guess that means there will be a cloud cover for awhile now. I'm glad, it adds to the winter weather feel and reminds me of being up north again.
The opinion of some:

When I heard 2 inches of snow I laughed, I was used to 1 feet of snow days in new jersey and it was not a big deal!

Then I went to work and while commuting back I realized what the real problem is!

ZERO action form the local cities and governments. Thy had not dropped even one Spoon of sand or salt on this snow.
So 2 inches of hammered snow turned into the black ice.

Even for me as a someone who was used to drive in lots of snow in NJ this was scary. As an example In Atlanta in Canton road there was 20 miles road with lots of Black Iced up and down hills .

This was not peoples fault, Problem was failure to be prepared from authorities.
1410. LargoFl
Jim Cantore taking care of business. This is just too funny!

Link
Birmingham aint much better...not just atl
1413. LargoFl
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO
SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS. NUMEROUS VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. STAY OFF THE ROADWAYS
IF POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 20S INCREASING TO LOWER 30S.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WIND
CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CONTINUED SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS MEANS
THAT TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ONLY
TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&
1414. Drakoen
Quoting 1411. StormTrackerScott:
Jim Cantore taking care of business. This is just too funny!

Link


That was so smooth. He gets points in my book.
Quoting 1393. JTDailyUpdate:


I'm surprised to the fact that most schools were open despite the fact of the warnings, advisories, and predictions of winter precipitation


My Brother and Sister in-laws are both profs at UAB in Birmingham. They were told yesterday morning that the forecast was only for a light dusting of snow yesterday and that is why school wasn't canceled or scheduled for a half day. They ended up spending the night in their offices on campus.
Quoting 1406. opal92nwf:

In a nutshell, what are the "accumulations" you got there like?


1/4 inch of ice and sleet with a miniscule dusting of snow.
I can't even walk on my street where any car tracks passed over. 1/2" ice of pure ice. clear smooth ice.
1418. ncstorm
Stranded motorists in GA sleeping in a CVS (drugstore)

Currently seeing freezing rain and sleet now :)



I wish I could post photos from my phone though :(


Its just now starting to glaze over the trees, the bushes, the roof edge, and the power lines, my truck is completely covered in a thin glaze of ice now!


Its worth noting that it was still all rain with no ice of any kind at my location just an hour ago, it hasn't iced up until within the last hour.

So the colder air is just very slowly edging southeast.
Quoting 1390. aislinnpaps:


I hope they still have gas then and that the kids are dressed properly. You would not believe how many kids came to school on Monday here with short sleeve uniform tops and no coats! It was about 56 when we went to school, but when school was let out it was in the upper 30's! Parents can be ridiculous sometimes! It was all over the news that the temps would be dropping and a winter storm was coming.


I don't know about all of that. I know some of my friends walked 3-4+ hours home yesterday at 21F with snow, 10-20mph winds winds in light jackets or single layers of clothing, no gloves, or hats, and shoes that are not meant for snow, and so that get very wet/cold - so I can attest to that. I know I personally wasnt prepared to walk home if I had had to. Nobody prepares for that when they go to school.
1421. ncstorm
Atlanta Mayor "Interstates Are Not My Problem"..CNN
Despite everything, it is still the most beautiful morning in a long time. Brilliant sunshine and lots of white.
Really busted on south side snow

1424. LargoFl
Quoting 1421. ncstorm:
Atlanta Mayor "Interstates Are Not My Problem"..CNN
yeah my guess is most if not all interstates are the states problem not local govts..at least as far as snow removal and salting..then again in the south..how many states stockpile salt for winter roadways..i doubt very many and sand is not very useful on ice covered roadways..might even make it more slippery huh..
12 degrees at my house and a fresh 1 inch on the ground :).Looks like a apocalypse in Atlanta.
1426. skook
From 11 alive(atlanta news).
"">


See more here.Link
drizzle&blustery....ecen.fl.
1429. LargoFl
this is for our clearwater posters in here.................





CLEARWATER --
Clearwater officials are warning residents and visitors about a series of loud booms that will be heard Wednesday afternoon.

The loud sounds will be due to soil testing for construction that is taking place on the former Adam's Mark Hotel site at 430 South Gulfview Boulevard.

The loud sounds are expected during the day and are part of a construction project

Officials are advising the public they do not need to call 911 in regard to the blasts.

Contractors will clear surrounding beach and water areas prior to the detonations.
Quoting washingtonian115:
12 degrees at my house and a fresh 1 inch on the ground :).Looks like a apocalypse in Atlanta.


They missed that one at TWC for the show "It Could Happen Tomorrow". Headline - two inches of snow falls on Atlanta. How will they survive?
1432. LargoFl
First time Sleeter here....Just stepped outside in Tallahassee......Crunchy little things on the side walk...Like mini-hail stones..............


7 inches of partially drifted, untouched sleet outside my front door. Wilmington, NC
Lol, it took freddie freeman of the atlanta braves 11hours to get home... ended up being rescued by chipper jones of the atlanta braves on a 4 wheeler.
1437. LargoFl
next wens........gfs...
The roads don't seem too bad here in Summerville, SC (besides bridges/overpasses) but we did get a fair coating of ice on everything else:

1439. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM WEDNESDAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST WE MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING SOON WHICH ADDRESSES ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING PCPN ONLY AND NOT EXISTING ROAD CONDITIONS. WE WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA TO ENSURE NO SURPRISES ARE LURKING BEFORE
PULLING THE WARNING.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED
STRONGLY BY SNOW/SLEET/ICE COVER...AND WILL NOT ALLOW UNTREATED
ROADS TO IMPROVE VERY MUCH TODAY. 4-5 INCHES OF IP/SN INLAND HAS
BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH LESSER DEPTHS OF FROZEN PCPN OF
1/2"-2" ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL INTERIOR.
1440. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TAYLOR AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

.THE MAIN LINE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET REMAINS ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF VALDOSTA TO JUST EAST OF
PANAMA CITY. IN THIS AREA EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT EXCEEDING A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. TO THE WEST WHERE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT...ROADS AND BRIDGES REMAIN ICED OVER AND WILL REMAIN IN
THIS STATE ALL DAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB TO ABOVE FREEZING. TRAVEL REMAINS EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS IN THESE AREAS AND AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING THE WINTRY
MIX. YOU ARE URGED TO REMAIN OFF THE ROADS UNLESS ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY.

Georgia STORMZ.............

http://www.ajc.com/s/sports/braves/chipper-to-the -rescue/?icmp=ajc_internallink_textlink_homepage
AJC ‏@ajc 9m
54 kids on a school bus from Langston Hughes High just taken in by Fulton Co fire station in Fairburn. http://bit.ly/1hMJlHH #atlweather
Retweeted by Brad Nitz


There ends one more stranded atlanta bus situation.
lower lakes looks like a little smack for sat feb 1 as per nam 12z sim rad

1444. Drakoen
Precip still off shore. Good thing about living close to the ocean is the moisture funnel.

WHO'S READY FOR MORE????

Nobody?



Starts at 174 hours

A slight glaze, maybe a tenth of an inch of ice accumulated on the trees I can see, and this message from local EMA:

"THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
CHATHAM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

NUMEROUS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS CHATHAM COUNTY ARE SHUT
DOWN DUE TO ICY CONDITIONS. AVOID TRAVEL IN THE COUNTY IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE WILMINGTON RIVER.
THE CHATHAM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CONTINUES TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION."
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1445. GeorgiaStormz:
WHO'S READY FOR MORE????

Nobody?


Not sure the algorithm is handling p-type correctly there, especially with the 540 dam 1000-500 mb thickness contour so far to the north.

1449. Drakoen
Quoting 1448. 1900hurricane:

Not sure the algorithm is handling p-type correctly there, especially with the 540 dam 1000-500 mb thickness contour so far to the north.



The 850 line is farther south though
Quoting 1370. ncstorm:
If we got snow..please let me know where because I sure didnt see it or has anyone seen any accumulations of it in Wilmington..all we have is sleet..

"Historical Ice Storm" for NC/SC..Widespread Power outages? this was a bust..we went from maps from NWS from 4-6 inches of snow to under 2 inches snow/sleet..

Get rid of snow depth maps as they are misleading to the public and someone fix the damn weather models to where they can predict an event..I mean with them nowcasting the event they still got it wrong..and this just wasn't "oh its winter and its hard to predict those events" the past hurricane season they failed..is anyone besides me not upset about the fact that we have terrible weather technology?

Sounds like you'll help us out by writing a letter to your representatives requesting a return to a fully funded & staffed NWS, additional funds for model development, and additional funds for meteorology/social science research.

Can we count on you to do that?
I just heard GA Gov say that the NWS models showed storm missing ATL and that agencies decided to not take action based on their analysis of the models (implied rather than the official NWS forecast).

So, just who are these brilliant forecasters who know better than ANS?