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Rapid Intensification Watch: Orlene and Meranti Spin Up in Pacific

By: Bob Henson 5:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2016

While the North Atlantic is on the tepid side this weekend in terms of tropical cyclones, we have two potentially fearsome storms in the North Pacific. One is unlikely to hit land; the other is taking a bead on Taiwan. The latter is Typhoon Meranti, located about 900 miles southeast of Taipei as of 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Sunday. Meranti’s top winds, as reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center using the 1-minute U.S. standard, jumped from 40 to 85 mph in the 24 hours leading up to 12Z Sunday. This meets the National Hurricane Center (NHC) definition of rapid intensification: an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours.

Meranti’s central core of showers and thunderstorms (convection) is expanding and consolidating quickly, with excellent upper-level outflow evident on satellite. Sea surface temperatures will be holding near 30°C (86°F) along Meranti’s path. Mid-level relative humidity will climb from around 70% toward 80%, and wind shear will be dropping to or below 10 knots. All of these factors point toward Meranti becoming a formidable typhoon.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image from the Himiwari-8 satellite of Typhoon Meranti at 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Sunday, September 11, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The outlook for Meranti
JTWC predicts that rapid intensification may continue over the next 24 - 48 hours, with an expected Category 4 strength of at least 125 knots (145 mph) by the time of Meranti’s projected landfall in Taiwan on Wednesday local time. On average, Taiwan gets a landfalling typhoon this strong about once per year, with 14 such landfalls occurring between 2000 and 2015. The 00Z Sunday runs of the GFS, European, and UKMET models all predict that Meranti will be a major typhoon passing across or near southern Taiwan, with the UKMET keeping Meranti just offshore. Although Taiwan’s largest city, Taipei, is located near the north tip of the island, the second-largest city, Kaohsiung, is in the far southwest. Even in this well-prepared nation, a major typhoon can cause significant damage and loss of life. Meranti should recurve along or near the coast of eastern China later in the week, perhaps dumping 10” or more of rain as far north as Shanghai and across parts of Japan.

East Pacific: Orlene gathers strength
The Northeast Pacific got its 16th tropical depression and 15th tropical storm of the year this weekend with the christening of Tropical Storm Orlene. This is the earliest occurrence of a year’s 16th tropical cyclone (including depressions) in the East Pacific since the frenetically busy 1992 season, which used the same list of names as 2016. In that year, Hurricane Orlene became a tropical storm on September 3. Nine additional named storms followed, culminating in Tropical Storm Zeke on October 26.


Figure 2. Latest infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Orlene.

This year’s Orlene is off to a healthy start, with a solid convective core and top winds up to 50 mph as of the 11 am EDT Sunday advisory from NHC. Located well out to sea--nearly 700 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico--Orlene is in an environment primed for rapid growth. The 12Z Sunday SHIPS model shows very low wind shear (5 - 10 knots), warm SSTs of 28-29°C (82-86°F), and a reasonably moist middle atmosphere (relative humidity of 55-60%). Working against Orlene will be cooler waters lurking just below the surface, which are increasingly likely to be churned up as Orlene’s northwestward motion slows to a crawl by Tuesday. The SHIPS model gives Orlene a 44% chance of gaining at least 25 knots of strength by Monday morning, and a 39% chance of gaining 45 knots of intensity by Monday evening. The latter would push Orlene into the Category 2 bracket. A strengthening upper-level ridge should push Orlene westward after its midweek stall, nudging it away from land and toward cooler waters.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Invests 92L, 93L, and 94L as of 1615Z (12:15 pm EDT) Sunday, September 22, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Atlantic: Three invests all in a row
Three tropical waves continue to vie for attention in the North Atlantic, although only the easternmost one shows any immediate sign of development. Invest 94L features a large circulation, with access to very warm SSTs (around 28°C) and a moist atmosphere. However, 94L’s convection has waxed and waned, and much of it is strung along a north-south axis rather than consolidating around a center. NHC gives 94L a 70% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by Tuesday and a 80% chance by Friday. Its window of opportunity may close long before then, as the 12Z Sunday SHIPS model shows wind shear increasing to 20-30 knots by Monday, with significant mid-level drying. Our leading models for hurricane genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF, insist that 94L has a very good shot at becoming a tropical depression if not a tropical storm by Monday, though only about half of the ECMWF ensemble members from 00Z Sunday bring 94L to tropical storm strength. I’m highly skeptical that 94L will develop into a named storm; if it does, I suspect it will be a highly sheared, asymmetric system rather than a classic, well-formed tropical cyclone. Upper-level troughing will steer 94L toward the north-northwest, keeping it well out to sea.

The Atlantic’s other two systems of interest are barely clinging to life. In fact, both were downgraded on Sunday morning from their “invest” (investigative area) status, the rating that calls for dedicated track models and other specialized attention from NHC. Across the eastern Bahamas, former Invest 93L remains highly disorganized, with no surface circulation associated with it. Ex-93L should limp west-northwestward across the Bahamas and into Florida over the next several days with some heavy showers and thunderstorms, but no major models are making it even a minimal tropical storm. In the southeast Gulf of Mexico, just north of western Cuba, former Invest 92L is even more poorly organized, with very little convection evident on satellite. Computer models agree that ex-92L is likely to dissipate in the open Gulf over the next day or so. NHC gives both systems a near-zero chance of development through the next five days.

We’ll be back with our next update by midday Monday. Happy birthday, Dr. Masters!

Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I really want to have the heart set to write of 93L. For the most part I am. Then I came across THIS. It is a stacked system residing in low wind shear at the moment. Thankfully it does not have a lot of wiggle room around it. You can compare it to 92L on the left in the Gulf which is not total. I think they will up it to at least 10 or 20% at 2pm.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Weather Underground sucks now. Especially the radar. Now I see the best part of it, the blogs, are being affected. Such a shame and sad. Been a lurker since 2007.
Thak you sir!

Continued form previous blg:
Quoting 394. LesBonsTemps:


You twist my points and accuse me of saying things I'm not saying and then add a bunch of non sequiturs that show you don't really have a grasp of the subject. But I'll admit it has only tertiary relationship to the blog (mainly in the realm of long-term climate change) and so I've said enough and will stop, but I know that time will prove me out.


Actually LBT - i think we are in agreement - but for vastly different reasons.
thanks for the update doc
Quoting 1. George1938:

I really want to have the heart set to write of 93L. For the most part I am. Then I came across THIS. It is a stacked system residing in low wind shear at the moment. Thankfully it does not have a lot of wiggle room around it. You can compare it to 92L on the left in the Gulf which is not total. I think they will up it to at least 10 or 20% at 2pm.img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


i agree still a fan lol
3 invests this time of year should be 3 hurricanes. Dry air and shear rule this season
Quoting 5. 7544:



i agree still a fan lol


hahaha yeah, not like anything else is really out there. Even 94L is suddenly kinda lame. BUT 93L got upped to 10% wow batten down the hatches guys.
back to 10% in five days lol nhc
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a disturbance
near the central and southeastern Bahamas. However, surface
pressures are high, and there are still no signs of a surface
circulation. Conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Bahamas today and on Monday, and these rains are likely to
spread over portions of the Florida peninsula by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
This season has been more entertaining than the last two combined! We have hit a lull, except for possibly 93L. :) That said, waves off of Africa look to bring us three more named storms at least, and who knows what wind shear will do in a weeks time? We just don't know. Could be a hyper end of season or a dud. Have we forgotten the torture of the last two season so fast? This season should not be counted out just yet.
what do i no i need too read more clear be for yelling too bob and jeff lol



i take back what i said lol
The good Doc shares the same birthday as the attacks which is unfortunate.Once again the pacific is cranking out healthy looking systems and the Atlantic..uhhh no words......
13. 7544
Quoting 11. thetwilightzone:

what do i no i need too read more clear be for yelling too bob and jeff lol



i take back what i said lol


so its still now 93l not ex 93l right we can call it that ?
14. 7544
Quoting 13. 7544:



so its still now 93l not ex 93l right we can call it that ? and the pre cone over fl in 5 days
Quoting 13. 7544:



so its still now 93l not pre 93l right we can call it that ?


how dos ex 93L sound
16. 7544
Quoting 13. 7544:



so its still now 93l not ex 93l right we can call it that ?
Quoting 15. thetwilightzone:



how dos ex 93L sound


Im calling it Blobida, but on my own time. Not going to do it on the blogs time.
LOL I guess the NHC read the comments on weather modification and reactivated 93L.
Quoting 18. K8eCane:



Im calling it Blobida, but on my own time. Not going to do it on the blogs time.


ok sounds good


I referred to both 92L and 93L as "former" invests, but for clarity I've also changed all references (except in the graphic) to "ex-92L" and "ex-93L".
Nothing to eat.
Hurricane seaso 2016 is dead! See you next year! Waiting for the Atlantic ocean getting vitamins....
Quoting 11. thetwilightzone:

what do i no i need too read more clear be for yelling too bob and jeff lol



i take back what i said lol


Seems that many today are missing the word "Former" before "Invest" Taz... Not just you.

I think that we should call them "Undulating blobs"... They're kinda like watching a lava lamp!
Sounds like even invest 94L is going quickly into a hostile environment, just as the other two invests already are. The most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season is upon us, yet the Atlantic is oddly quiet.
Instead of revisiting conspiracy theories; may we rejoice in the day we have at hand. For we, in the West, are greatly blessed compared to the great suffering in the rest of the world. We have the good pleasure of being let down by a hurricane season that's trying it's best to entertain us. Here's hoping we're not too well entertained in the latter half of the season.

TS Orlene with hot tower, starting to wrap up an eye.
This is the earliest occurrence of a year%u2019s 16th tropical cyclone (including depressions) in the East Pacific since the frenetically busy 1992 season, which used the same list of names as 2016. In that year, Hurricane Orlene became a tropical storm on September 3. Nine additional named storms followed, culminating in Tropical Storm Zeke on October 26.
Despite a no show from el nino the eastern pacific is still on a roll like nothing ever happened.We'll see what 2017 will bring but it will most likely be the same story.

Typhoon Meranti charging up.
31. SLU
11/1745 UTC 18.4N 47.3W T1.0/1.0 94L
11/1145 UTC 16.8N 46.3W T1.0/1.0 94L
11/0545 UTC 15.3N 46.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
10/2345 UTC 14.2N 45.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
32. 7544
93l might be getting a little spin going on ?
Quoting 28. washingtonian115:

This is the earliest occurrence of a year%u2019s 16th tropical cyclone (including depressions) in the East Pacific since the frenetically busy 1992 season, which used the same list of names as 2016. In that year, Hurricane Orlene became a tropical storm on September 3. Nine additional named storms followed, culminating in Tropical Storm Zeke on October 26.
Despite a no show from el nino the eastern pacific is still on a roll like nothing ever happened.We'll see what 2017 will bring but it will most likely be the same story.

On top of the fact that La Nina is a no-show, let alone a "super", the waters of the tropics above the equatorial zone remain very warm. SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands are at or above what they were during last year's super El Nino, although they're less off of Baja thanks to somewhat stronger upwelling off the California coast this year compared to last. Those warm tropical waters will be available to feed the seasonal mid-latitude storms along the Pacific coast this winter when and if the jet is able to dip in their direction. It would not surprise me if this rainy season is as wet or even wetter than last season in California.
Quoting 358. JLPR2:

AOI south/SE of the CV islands has the strongest 850mb vorticity I have ever seen with a tropical system that has not been designated a tropical cyclone.










Indeed, quite a tropical system meteorological peculiarity -given the implied strength of the system based on respective tropical Atlantic & requisite data- this system should have already been a designated invest & named quite a long time ago.
Sadly, post season analysis may not even do this system true justice...

God Bless!
Hello Pinhole Eye, how are you?

May we consider our fellow man more than ourselves and God above all. For true Charity lies in just that. May we not sleep on the late hour of the world on fire. May we have a passion to serve those who so desperately need. True religion is not Sunday worship. For the Sabbath is Saturday, Constantine 323 AD. This is not hidden truth, this is truth right in front of any eyes willing to seek. True religion is helping the widow and orphan in need, it's giving to those who can't for themselves. Legalistic churches shun those who are in need of repentance. They come and are rejected by the Churches of the West. This should not be. The hour is late, climate sings it's causes, and geopolitics answers to what the truth is. A great awakening comes, and an hour late arrives within the next two years. Dropped in the last blog, seeds to the truth. Check it out, and may we all love our neighbor, and speak the truth without fear.
EP, 16, 2016091118, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1173W, 50, 1000, TS
Happy Birthday Dr. Masters....mine too..YIPPIE, 62 year old HIPPIE LOL
Hurricane Iniki anniversary today also

Arctic sea ice extent nearing the annual minimum, second lowest on record. Northwest Passage is open.
92 and 93L floaters are gone wish means we can no longer call them 92 and 93L for good now we most call them ex 92 and 93L if you still want too talk about them so that way we dont confuse any one that we still have 92 and 93L wish we dont any more

Link
I wonder what has happened to the Atlantic Ocean.
any one noted that area S of Orlene no its getting shear by out flow winds from Orlene but could that area S of the storm do any thing in the coming days has the storm moves more a way from it ?
Quoting 43. HurricaneAndre:

I wonder what has happened to the Atlantic Ocean.


your not going too start your cazy stuff are you?


Quoting 40. BayFog:

Arctic sea ice extent nearing the annual minimum, second lowest on record. Northwest Passage is open.

Giant cruise ship makes historic voyage in melting Arctic
September 9, 2016 by Mark Thiessen
... The Crystal Serenity's visit to Alaska's western coast is historic. At nearly three football fields long and 13 stories tall, the cruise ship is the largest ever to traverse the Northwest Passage, where its well-heeled guests glimpsed polar bears, kayaked along Canada's north shore, landed on pristine beaches and hiked where few have stepped. ...
Quoting 28. washingtonian115:


Despite a no show from el nino the eastern pacific is still on a roll like nothing ever happened.We'll see what 2017 will bring but it will most likely be the same story.


I'm guessing it's a combination of the strongest +PDO on record (so SSTs are a lot above normal in the "MDR" of the East Pacific") and the massive record breaking (I believe?) MJO pulse from July - that gave it a big start up.

I don't believe the Atlantic is sick, it could just be a transition to a -AMO state. Would be interesting to see what conditions were like in the 70s and 80s.

One thing is for sure though - SSTs will get warmer and warmer closer to the US - just like the record breaking SSTs in the GOM and off the East Coast this year. Could brew some very nasty home grown systems in the future.

Quoting 45. thetwilightzone:



your not going too start your cazy stuff are you?



No just wondering
Quoting 1. George1938:

I really want to have the heart set to write of 93L. For the most part I am. Then I came across THIS. It is a stacked system residing in low wind shear at the moment. Thankfully it does not have a lot of wiggle room around it. You can compare it to 92L on the left in the Gulf which is not total. I think they will up it to at least 10 or 20% at 2pm.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
If you really want to experience a strong hurticane you can hop on a flight to Taiwan. Not happening in the Atlantic.
Quoting 49. unknowncomic:

If you really want to experience a strong hurticane you can hop on a flight to Taiwan. Not happening in the Atlantic.


agreed it seems like the Atlantic days are over not like the old days and it seems like the 2017 hurricane season will be the same has well since we have enter 2010
Since they "temporarily took down the floater on 93L. I will be posting these so you have an idea what is going on.

Quoting 30. HurricaneFan:



FISH :((

Really a fish year
Wow, this season is just another lamer season like it has been now for a good number of years. what has happened to the Atlantic basin with nothing but dry air, shear, SAL and FISH Storms. Well maybe next year who knows.
Quoting 52. Grothar:

Since they "temporarily took down the floater on 93L. I will be posting these so you have an idea what is going on.




The NHC says it does not have a surface circulation.
When I look at the sat views I swear I see something swirling. Can anyone tell me what I'm seeing?
Quoting 53. CaribBoy:


FISH :((

Really a fish year


I wish you could get a Blob Hope. I really do :P
Quoting 53. CaribBoy:


FISH :((

Really a fish year


The year of the FISH
Quoting 55. SunnyDaysFla:



The NHC says it does not have a surface circulation.
When I look at the sat views I swear I see something swirling. Can anyone tell me what I'm seeing?


Mid-level to Upper-level circulation.
Quoting 55. SunnyDaysFla:



The NHC says it does not have a surface circulation.
When I look at the sat views I swear I see something swirling. Can anyone tell me what I'm seeing?


A swirl. I've got a "gut" feeling they might bring it back. :) The Taz might let us call it 93L again.
Quoting 24. ChillinInTheKeys:



Seems that many today are missing the word "Former" before "Invest" Taz... Not just you.

I think that we should call them "Undulating blobs"... They're kinda like watching a lava lamp!


Don't give me any ideas, Chillin!
Unless we get an october surprise... it's pretty much done.
Quoting 50. thetwilightzone:



agreed it seems like the Atlantic days are over not like the old days and it seems like the 2017 hurricane season will be the same has well since we have enter 2010
Maybe the North Atlantic will start behaving like the South Atlantic..At least we will have less destruction.
It will be interesting to see how 94L does with DMAX. If it does well we could get a tropical depression tomorrow morning.
Quoting 61. CaribBoy:

Unless we get an october surprise... it's pretty much done.

Or late September. The CFS, NMME and the CANSIPS are in pretty good agreement that you could have above average rainfall in October. The question is: Will it actually happen?

CFS:


NMME:


CANSIPS:
Quoting 60. Grothar:



Don't give me any ideas, Chillin!

Lava lamp blobs? Yes!
Ps. Have we had a Heffalump blob yet? You know, one that resembles a bear with its head stuck in a hunny bucket?

(requoted to correct wrong quote)
Thanks for the updates Mr. Henson....
Quoting 62. hydrus:

Maybe the North Atlantic will start behaving like the South Atlantic..At least we will have less destruction.

Hopefully that doesn't happen. I like my fish storms.
Quoting 55. SunnyDaysFla:



The NHC says it does not have a surface circulation.
When I look at the sat views I swear I see something swirling. Can anyone tell me what I'm seeing?

Actually you can see it on the visible satellite loop. It is right where the NHC put the X. I Still think it has a fighting chance especially where the center is with regards to the convection.
I remember I was attacked viciously in July for pointing out the dry air issue.We are seeing it now before our eyes happening yet again this year.
Quoting 60. Grothar:



Don't give me any ideas, Chillin!


Maybe we could coin a new word..."Undulationess" when speaking of pulsating blobs.
Quoting 64. Kyon5:


Or late September. The CFS, NMME and the CANSIPS are in pretty good agreement that you could have above average rainfall in October. The question is: Will it actually happen?



I certainly hope that it will :)
IDC about fishes as long as they are pretty hurricanes
Quoting 59. Grothar:



A swirl. I've got a "gut" feeling they might bring it back. :) The Taz might let us call it 93L again.


maybe a small window of opportunity if/when it crosses over FL and emerges into the GOM off the big bend of FL?
Baby come back, any kind of fool could see
There was something in everything about you
Baby come back, you can blame it all on me
I was wrong, and I just can't live without you


I am NOT happy about the NWS switching the layout of the SR WFO's.
I'd like to point out that October has trended more active than September in recent seasons. Three out of the last four seasons has had its strongest storm of the season in October. Also, the models are trending to above average rainfall and below average shear in the Caribbean Sea in October. And don't forget, the hot tub is still there.
Quoting 71. ChillinInTheKeys:



Maybe we could coin a new word..."Undulationess" when speaking of pulsating blobs.


I don't know what it is with you all. We should stick to official words only to avoid confusion. This is obviously nothing but an asaquecious blob.
Quoting 43. HurricaneAndre:

I wonder what has happened to the Atlantic Ocean.
We all thought that with gw we where sure to see multiple simultaneous mega storms threatening to scrub FL and the east coast off the map. I am happy that the shear and dry air kept it to a minimum and hope it continues that way.
The extra terrestrials built a base at El Yunque, the only rain forest in USA, the same is in Puerto Rico. The ET turn their blower on and poof all the storms.


Quoting 43. HurricaneAndre:

I wonder what has happened to the Atlantic Ocean.
Quoting 78. Grothar:



I don't know what it is with you all. We should stick to official words only to avoid confusion. This is obviously nothing but an asaquecious blob.
wow, now there is some definite pun fodder....
Quoting 77. HurricaneFan:






Oh boy :[
North Korea says floods damaged 'tens of thousands' of buildings in north-east




Link
Quoting 65. Barefootontherocks:


Lava lamp blobs? Yes!
Ps. Have we had a Heffalump blob yet? You know, one that resembles a bear with its head stuck in a hunny bucket?
(requoted to correct wrong quote)
Btw, fwiw, no offense intended to beell's new avatar - his best one yet, imo.
Quoting 81. JNFlori30A:

wow, now there is some definite pun fodder....
Remember, he was around when there was only one language.
AOI in the Bahamas? "never" take your eyes off.

Quoting 75. GeoffreyWPB:

Baby come back, any kind of fool could see
There was something in everything about you
Baby come back, you can blame it all on me
I was wrong, and I just can't live without you



Now that i put it all togeth...ah nevermind...pfft
Fasten your seat belt – turbulence is on the rise

It is predicted there will be more and more incidents of severe clear-air turbulence, which typically comes out of the blue with no warning, occurring in the near future as climate change takes its effect in the stratosphere,” Dr Paul Williams, a Royal Society research fellow at Reading University, said last week. “There has already been a steady rise in incidents of severe turbulence affecting flights over the past few decades. Globally, turbulence causes dozens of fatalities a year on small private planes and hundreds of injuries to passengers in big jets. And as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere keep on rising, so will the numbers of incidents.”

Link
look at that storm that comes off African coast.
Quoting 93. markot:

look at that storm that comes off African coast.

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Shear in the Bahamas

Wondering why WU won't let me post the shear map from CIMSS?
africas not the problem this yr. to this layman it looks like less than optimal water temps in the mdr and dry air throughout the atlantic
Quoting 95. ProgressivePulse:

Shear in the Bahamas




Maybe the gap in the url where it says winds?

Quoting 98. CW7859:



Maybe the gap in the url where it says winds?




TY
Quoting 96. ProgressivePulse:

Wondering why WU won't let me post the shear map from CIMSS?


If you ask them nicely, they will

remember no name e cen florida about 5 yrs ago. ex 93? could it be a repeat.

94L at sunset showing numerous gust fronts on its western side, indicating dry air dumping down from aloft.
WOW! That visible satellite sensor has some far-ranging vision, all right -- the depiction of the western Atlantic around The Bahamas on Sunday,September 22, 2016! I guess that means the 10-day outlook for those three storms is no change at all! :-)
Mother Nature is funny sometimes it's like we are waiting on the "I" named storm but Mother Nature is like hold up I want that name to be significant..is it just me? Becuase these waves seem to be dying rapidily until that one wave comes...the big one
Quoting 86. MontanaZephyr:

North Korea says floods damaged 'tens of thousands' of buildings in north-east




Link
and hopefully flooded the test site of the bad man
107. 882MB
Sunrise on Meranti. Men does this look like trouble for Taiwan. Hope everyone there is taking this 1 seriously, and is it me? or does it looks like Meranti is about to put on RI? Looks real healthy on satellite and better by the moment.






Nullschool shows a closed circulation at 23.55 N, 74.23 W at 700, nothing at the surface. Is this our ex-93L or a ULL? There has not been anything in that area until this afternoon. Ex 92L still has good spin but is no longer stacked.
It cannot be said that the Atlantic and especially the MDR did not have systems which had potential to develop into intense storms but fell apart even with some conducive conditions.
why do people choose to track invests, when there's a cyclone in the pacific putting on a SHOW, right at sunrise. honest question
Quoting 107. 882MB:

does it looks like Meranti is about to put on RI? Looks real healthy on satellite and better by the moment.


Tokyo ADT mentioned a pinhole eye scene earlier. The Dvorak (raw) was near 6.0 to 6.5.
any chance old 93 can attain TS force winds?
Quoting 102. BayFog:


94L at sunset showing numerous gust fronts on its western side, indicating dry air dumping down from aloft.


It took me a bit to see what you were indicating, but yes I finally could see what you were referring to. Also looks as if here was two competing circulations in existence at the time, with the northern one winning out in the end. Either that or the LLC moving more towards a mid-level circulation towards the north.

Whether these were at different levels, hard to say in this animation.


latest vis sat over meranti, convection exploding everywhereeee
18Z NAM brings old 93's Low into south Florida Tuesday morning.......
Looking at visible on 93L, looks like it just imploded. Poof! Outflow boundaries all around.
Meranti is fearsome. Symmetric deep convection. Rapidly improving outflow to the point where it's now near perfect. And a pinhole eye. Classic West Pac typhoon.

94L looks more like a subtropical storm...
GFS says 94L will eventually get tighter and stronger as it heads out to sea later this week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
504 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A surface trough in the eastern Bahamas currently has active
convection associated with it but lacks an apparent surface
circulation. Recent observations indicate widespread cloudiness
and thunderstorms across most of the Bahamas chain extending into
the northwest Bahamas.

Forecast for Monday into mid-week...

The surface trough is forecast to track northwest over the next
day or so. Currently it is in a sheared environment and is not
conducive for development. There is generally good consensus
amongst the global models that the trough will continue to track
northwest along the Bahamas Islands chain over the next day or so
and could be in the vicinity of the northwest Bahamas around 18z
Monday then maybe off the coast of Palm Beach and Martin counties
Monday night, but need to stress the uncertainties. As for chances
of tropical development, chances are currently low over the next
48 hours but consult and closely monitor the products from the
National Hurricane Center for the potential for tropical
development. As the trough continues to move northwest through
Monday an influx of deep moisture and cloudiness is expected
region wide with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms,
By Tuesday guidance indicates the trough could be in central
Florida, with additional tropical moisture and numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms possible on Tuesday. If the trough is
in the vicinity of the Florida panhandle on Wednesday as indicated
by the global models, residual moisture could linger into mid-week
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Quoting 76. hotroddan:

I am NOT happy about the NWS switching the layout of the SR WFO's.


What is your gripe with it and did this happen around Sep 4, I noticed all the county boundary were left off....
Quoting 81. JNFlori30A:

wow, now there is some definite pun fodder....


How about sticking to real words.....
Interesting. Palm Beach County EOC is at level 3 out of 4....

Level 1 - Full activation. All lead and support agencies are notified. The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, the Executive Policy Group (EPG), all Sections and Branches, their staff, as well as State and Federal representatives.

Level 2 - Partial activation. Selected Emergency Operations Center (EOC) staff are notified. The EOC is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, appropriate Sections, their staff, and outside agencies as required to meet the operational need of the incident.

Level 3 - Monitoring. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) transitions to this level for incidents or special events that have the potential for escalation. The County Warning Point (CWP), DEM, and/or other emergency management personnel are actively monitoring the incident/event. Notifications are made to appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations that may be required to take action as part of their normal responsibilities.

Level 4 - Normal Operations. This is the normal day-to-day operational level for the Division of Emergency Management (DEM) and the County Warning Point (CWP), which are continuously monitoring local, regional, national, and international events, evaluating threats, and analyzing their impact on Palm Beach County. Appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations are notified and informed through a variety of communication methods based on the urgency required of the incident/event.
Wrote a blog on the ongoing mosquito spraying and Zika. Also touches on Brevard County's updated spray map.

Quoting 101. islander101010:

remember no name e cen florida about 5 yrs ago. ex 93? could it be a repeat.

Found my Wunderphoto series on it..
Skyepony in 93L
Sunday October 9, 2011
Eau Gallie, FL
Caption: Skye took a break from hunkering in the stall for a roll in the mud. Then enjoyed a rinsing from the storm while he had some grass. My rain total since Friday was 4.90". 21mph was my highest sustained wind. My yard is a mess. There is palm fronds in standing water, a few dead trees down & a thin layer of small oak limbs & leaves everywhere.
Happy birthday Dr. Masters!

There are parts of Cayman that have only had 11 all year

Quoting 126. Skyepony:

Wrote a blog on the ongoing mosquito spraying and Zika. Also touches on Brevard County's updated spray map.


Found my Wunderphoto series on it..
Skyepony in 93L
Sunday October 9, 2011
Eau Gallie, FL
Caption: Skye took a break from hunkering in the stall for a roll in the mud. Then enjoyed a rinsing from the storm while he had some grass. My rain total since Friday was 4.90". 21mph was my highest sustained wind. My yard is a mess. There is palm fronds in standing water, a few dead trees down & a thin layer of small oak limbs & leaves everywhere.

Doc what is going on that is preventing the Atlantic from producing the storms we seem to remember or are we getting back to a more realistic long term average of what used to be?

Quoting 115. daddyjames:



It took me a bit to see what you were indicating, but yes I finally could see what you were referring to. Also looks as if here was two competing circulations in existence at the time, with the northern one winning out in the end. Either that or the LLC moving more towards a mid-level circulation towards the north.

Whether these were at different levels, hard to say in this animation.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TYPHOON FERDIE
5:00 PM PhST September 12 2016
======================

Typhoon "FERDIE" has intensified further while maintaining its west northwest direction

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ferdie (MERANTI) [954 hPa] located at 17.7N, 131.3E or 1,015 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
----------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------------
1. Batanes
2. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy rains within its 300 km diameter of the typhoon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today or earlier.
is the blog really this dead or is my computer acting up
OT: The latest climate change interview with Dr. Guy Mcphearson.

THis is actually more important than any hurricane atm: we will all be dead and gone in about 10 years:

Link
Quoting 124. PedleyCA:



How about sticking to real words.....
Fun podder..?...;)
Quoting 107. 882MB:

Sunrise on Meranti . Men does this look like trouble for Taiwan. Hope everyone there is taking this 1 seriously, and is it me? or does it looks like Meranti is about to put on RI? Looks real healthy on satellite and better by the moment.










There are women on the blog also.
Quoting 137. MontanaZephyr:




There are women on the blog also.


Don't leave out us extraterrestrials. ;>)
Quoting 135. MontanaZephyr:

OT: The latest climate change interview with Dr. Guy Mcphearson.

THis is actually more important than any hurricane atm: we will all be dead and gone in about 10 years:

Link


Lol. Really trust a guy that says he gets most of his information on his Facebook page.
Quoting 135. MontanaZephyr:
we will all be dead and gone in about 10 years

Highly doubtful, barring global thermonuclear war or planetary impact. I'm sure Dr. McPherson appreciates the free sponsorship though. We are quite resilient, and though many may indeed die, we certainly won't be gone. (imo)
get your fishing rod.

Quoting 94. George1938:


img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
wow...two invests fizzle out in the GOM.
What is it, too hot or something?
143. 882MB
Quoting 137. MontanaZephyr:




There are women on the blog also.


Excuse my language, I did not mean it in any bad type of way. I know there are women here also. Sorry :(
144. SLU
11/2345 UTC 19.5N 48.1W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
Quoting 142. Chicklit:

wow...two invests fizzle out in the GOM.
What is it, too hot or something?




no wind shear
Quoting 125. GeoffreyWPB:

Interesting. Palm Beach County EOC is at level 3 out of 4....

Level 1 - Full activation. All lead and support agencies are notified. The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, the Executive Policy Group (EPG), all Sections and Branches, their staff, as well as State and Federal representatives.

Level 2 - Partial activation. Selected Emergency Operations Center (EOC) staff are notified. The EOC is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, appropriate Sections, their staff, and outside agencies as required to meet the operational need of the incident.

Level 3 - Monitoring. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) transitions to this level for incidents or special events that have the potential for escalation. The County Warning Point (CWP), DEM, and/or other emergency management personnel are actively monitoring the incident/event. Notifications are made to appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations that may be required to take action as part of their normal responsibilities.

Level 4 - Normal Operations. This is the normal day-to-day operational level for the Division of Emergency Management (DEM) and the County Warning Point (CWP), which are continuously monitoring local, regional, national, and international events, evaluating threats, and analyzing their impact on Palm Beach County. Appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations are notified and informed through a variety of communication methods based on the urgency required of the incident/event.
Because of 93L.?...or ex 93L...or cloudwad over Bahamas?...what?
Quoting 145. thetwilightzone:




no wind shear
To much wind shear.
Quoting 145. thetwilightzone:




no wind shear

Think of red as dragon breath

Quoting 148. Chicklit:


Think of red as dragon breath



So is dragon breath good or bad for development
AMo is solidly positive. So it can't be what's causing this lull in activity.

Quoting 138. docrod:



Don't leave out us extraterrestrials. ;>)


What? So you can take our jobs and infiltrate our schools? We need to build a stellar wall cause you ain't takin our beloved planets either!
151. SLU
16W MERANTI
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 12, 2016:

Location: 18.0°N 130.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb
Quoting 146. hydrus:

Because of 93L.?...or ex 93L...or cloudwad over Bahamas?...what?
Extraterrestrials
153. SLU
Invest 94L
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 12, 2016:

Location: 19.3°N 48.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
never mind

Orlene at sunset.
super typhoon forecast within 24 hours.

Japan Meteorological Agency
9:00 AM JST September 12 2016
================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Meranti (930 hPa) located at 18.0N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 19.1N 125.1E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.5N 120.5E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 22.4N 116.9E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South China Sea
i have made it too 1,000 commits on this blog YAY me YAY me what do i get
Quoting 157. thetwilightzone:

i have made it too 1,000 commits on this blog YAY me YAY me what do i get



Same as before


anyone see those big storms about to come off Africa. be in yellow Monday.....
Quoting 157. thetwilightzone:

i have made it too 1,000 commits on this blog YAY me YAY me what do i get


In less than 6 weeks, that's a lot.
Talkling about a revolution or an evolution? Looks as if 94L has discarded at least one LLC for another . . .



Quoting 157. thetwilightzone:

i have made it too 1,000 commits on this blog YAY me YAY me what do i get


LOL Taz I figure i'll hit a 1000 next year sometime.
How many times has there not been a named system in the Atlantic on the peak day September 10th? I mean since we had satellites.
I thought I saw a blogger called Tazmanian with over 100,000 comments before.
165. 882MB
Quoting 157. thetwilightzone:

i have made it too 1,000 commits on this blog YAY me YAY me what do i get


The same with me since yesterday. :)
Japan Meteorological Agency
9:00 AM JST September 12 2016
================================

GALE WARNING

South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 13.4N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 15.7N 108.6E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Vietnam
Quoting 135. MontanaZephyr:

OT: The latest climate change interview with Dr. Guy Mcphearson.

THis is actually more important than any hurricane atm: we will all be dead and gone in about 10 years:

Link


This coming from the guy that wrote:

Rising gas prices, sporadic shortages are signs of the impending Tucson apocalypse (2006)
Expect the beginning of the end of Tucson as we know it to arrive next year (2007)

So far, he's batting 1.000 (not).
What's he got against Tuscon anyways?
Quoting 164. weathergirl2001:

I thought I saw a blogger called Tazmanian with over 100,000 comments before.


thats me am still called Taz here but i am now no has thetwilightzone i wanted too have a nic clean start and since i only blog on here now most of them 100,000 commits where back in the days be for this place felled apart some and since most of us this blog on here now pluse i cheated some with that 100,000 commits so no cheating this time
Quoting 157. thetwilightzone:

i have made it too 1,000 commits on this blog YAY me YAY me what do i get


What's the big deal, I will get to 1,000 in another 45 years!!!!!
Quoting 162. SunnyDaysFla:



LOL Taz I figure i'll hit a 1000 next year sometime.


your up too 940 commits your 49 commits away
Quoting 170. NasBahMan:



What's the big deal, I will get to 1,000 in another 45 years!!!!!




you need too blog here more if you want too get too 1,000 commits
Eastward moving ULL in the gulf at this time of year? bring on fall, WTH.

Quoting 165. 882MB:



The same with me since yesterday. :)


It took u 10 years.
Quoting 169. thetwilightzone:



thats me am still called Taz here but i am now no has thetwilightzone i wanted too have a nic clean start and since i only blog on here now most of them 100,000 commits where back in the days be for this place felled apart some and since most of us this blog on here now pluse i cheated some with that 100,000 commits so no cheating this time
Oh OK. I think you should have kept the old handle and stayed the king blogger.
Eastward mov
Quoting 173. ProgressivePulse:

Eastward moving ULL in the gulf at this time of year? bring on fall, WTH.



ULL moving in from the west, cold front coming in from the north, and a tropical wave from the east. I bet someplace in Florida will get a lot of rain.
Quoting 176. weathergirl2001:

Eastward mov

ULL moving in from the west, cold front coming in from the north, and a tropical wave from the east. I bet someplace in Florida will get a lot of rain.


I figure that but, just odd this time of year to consider eastward ULL's or fronts in the deep south.
178. beell
Quoting 163. weathergirl2001:

How many times has there not been a named system in the Atlantic on the peak day September 10th? I mean since we had satellites.


2014
HURDAT
wiki

1992
Link

1985
Link

1976
Link

1975
Link

I quit.
:)
179. beell
i couldn't stop. went to 1970.
180. 882MB
Quoting 174. Bucsboltsfan:



It took u 10 years.


Yeah but I log on everyday or have the page open. I really enjoy this blog, and the people in it. And I'm really proud to be a member. ;)
Quoting 167. daddyjames:



This coming from the guy that wrote:

Rising gas prices, sporadic shortages are signs of the impending Tucson apocalypse (2006)
Expect the beginning of the end of Tucson as we know it to arrive next year (2007)

So far, he's batting 1.000 (not).
What's he got against Tuscon anyways?


When we something like that we really should reference it with a legit link. I have a hard time imagining him saying anything like that, and that sounds like it was taken out of context even if he did say that.
Quoting 173. ProgressivePulse:

Eastward moving ULL in the gulf at this time of year? bring on fall, WTH.


Might as well bring on Fall.. Hurricane season is squashed in the the Atlantic. Snowbirds come down. Cha-Ching, Cha-Ching.
183. vis0
i see that ex92L+92L divided by the ULL to the exponential power of 93L is still alive!
 
Mean while "The chosen one"...
 
(as so deemed by me after washi115 threw around that "title" ...so i stole it)
 
...has chosen to head more NW/N or at least its NE quad.
If the projected path for Typhoon Meranti is correct, this looks like a good webcam to see what is going on around ground zero.
Link
thanks beell :) 1969, 1968, 1966. 1963 & 1962 didn't either. Not rare after all.
Not the prettiest storm you will ever see, but I think 94L could be upgraded to TD 10 at 11 PM EDT. Nice convective burst ongoing.
Quoting 186. HurricaneFan:

Not the prettiest storm you will ever see, but I think 94L could be upgraded to TD 10 at 11 PM EDT. Nice convective burst ongoing.



Maybe it won't be as strong but this reminds me of Maria in 2005 in shape and path
Quoting 187. RockinghamRob:



Maybe it won't be as strong but this reminds me of Maria in 2005 in shape and path

Maybe. Although Maria 2005 was a category 3, it didn't really look like a major on visible:
Quoting 186. HurricaneFan:

Not the prettiest storm you will ever see, but I think 94L could be upgraded to TD 10 at 11 PM EDT. Nice convective burst ongoing.

Yeah might be the final push to be upgrade to td 10. Not sure if we are going to get Ian though.
and in the W PAC we now have TD 19 lol


so now we have TD 18 and TD 19 TD 19 is new


we all so had TD 17 wish is now EXTRATROPICAL
Quoting 177. ProgressivePulse:



I figure that but, just odd this time of year to consider eastward ULL's or fronts in the deep south.


Mail
192. beell
Quoting 185. weathergirl2001:

thanks beell :) 1969, 1968, 1966. 1963 & 1962 didn't either. Not rare after all.



At the very least, from a trivia perspective, I thought it was a good question also.
Thanks.
To enlarge, place face close to screen.

Frightening looking.

195. beell
94L kinda has that look. That look that indicates disrobement.
Quoting 193. Grothar:

To enlarge, place face close to screen.



*adjusts screen-face distance*
197. beell
Meranti

well no TD for 94L at 11pm
Quoting 35. pablosyn:

Hello Pinhole Eye, how are you?




The eye is shaking....EWRC? The appearence of Meranti in satellite reminds me Haiyan.
Quoting 196. Guinness2013:


*adjusts screen-face distance*


Unfortunately, people with big noses will not see it clearly.
Another monster ULL to the west of 94L. These guys are very persistent this year.
203. SLU


Quoting 191. Grothar:



Mail


reply mail
Quoting 202. unknowncomic:

Another monster ULL to the east of 94L. These guys are very persistent this year.






you here it right guys hurricane season is now closed in the Atlantic you got high shear dry air and ULLS runing around all over the place

hey Grothar the ULLS that are running around out there are your kids you need too take care of them there messing up the at Atlantic hurricane season you went the ULL on the lose just kidding of course
206. SLU


Nite boys and girls. Time to reel in my ULL's. Thanks for the smiles and info.

Pro - resent





Quoting 206. SLU:





I see TS winds. Ian at 5AM?
209. SLU
Quoting 208. HurricaneFan:


I see TS winds. Ian at 5AM?


The circulation is poorly defined due to many smaller swirls within a broad area. It does seem that a new center is trying to form near the convection near 20N 48W but it is just a sharp trough axis at this time.
Quoting 168. NasBahMan:

.

Your the best!
Quoting 201. Grothar:



Unfortunately, people with big noses will not see it clearly.


from one of my all time fav movies ...
"Would you stop waving that thing ...."
"When you stop to smell the flowers are the birds afraid"

"Roxane"
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TYPHOON FERDIE
11:00 PM PhST September 12 2016
======================

Typhoon "FERDIE" has intensified further as it moves in the general direction of extreme northern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ferdie (MERANTI) [948 hPa] located at 18.0N 129.9E or 850 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
----------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------------
1. Cagayan
2. Apayao
3. Batanes
4. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy rains within its 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Well it's clear the MJO is back... In the WPAC. Systems just taking off. Meranti looks like mean business and I wouldn't rule out a Cat 5. Meanwhile in the ATL. We have plently lows as well... of the upper level variety. At this rate we might see maybe 2 or 3 more storms for the season. Gaston might have been the best the ATL has to offer.
Quoting 208. HurricaneFan:


I see TS winds. Ian at 5AM?
It has the winds but the center does not look good.Tomorrow might be upgrade if it can defined more its broad Center. Reminds me of Oscar of 2012.
Quoting 181. MontanaZephyr:



When we something like that we really should reference it with a legit link. I have a hard time imagining him saying anything like that, and that sounds like it was taken out of context even if he did say that.



Here is the article. (I think) Tucson Apocalypse
Quoting 181. MontanaZephyr:



When we something like that we really should reference it with a legit link. I have a hard time imagining him saying anything like that, and that sounds like it was taken out of context even if he did say that.


They are easy enough to find. They are guest commentaries that he wrote in the Tuscon Weekly.

PedleyCA gave you the link for: Rising gas prices, sporadic shortages are signs of the impending Tucson apocalypse (2006)

Expect the beginning of the end of Tucson as we know it to arrive next year (2007)

Addendum: Nothing necessarily wrong with what he is saying per se.
In 2007, he was saying you would need a horse within 5 years to move around Tuscon, because oil would be $400/barrel . . . .
He is an "End-of-Times-is-near" kinda guy - eventually he will be correct, but not within the time frame he has been proposing.
Looks like Ian might be here with us tomorrow if conditions allow it. I am hoping its center becomes better defined so we can finally have our 9th name storm even if its a fail.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system
located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is producing an area of gale-force winds, but the center
of circulation is not well defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually increase and have become a
little better organized during the past several hours. If the
the circulation of the system becomes better defined, a tropical
storm could form later today before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move
northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
disturbance near the central Bahamas. Surface pressures remain high
in the area, and there are still no signs of a closed surface
circulation. Conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and
portions of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
. allancalderini beat me to it! ;)
The 2 has spoken - the Lion sleeps tonight .... nite
If a barrel of oil goes to $400, alternative ways will be found to make this go to $10.
They will give it away to try to get us hooked on it again.

Quoting 216. daddyjames:



They are easy enough to find. They are guest commentaries that he wrote in the Tuscon Weekly.

PedleyCA gave you the link for: Rising gas prices, sporadic shortages are signs of the impending Tucson apocalypse (2006)

Expect the beginning of the end of Tucson as we know it to arrive next year (2007)

Addendum: Nothing necessarily wrong with what he is saying per se.
In 2007, he was saying you would need a horse within 5 years to move around Tuscon, because oil would be $400/barrel . . . .
He is an "End-of-Times-is-near" kinda guy - eventually he will be correct, but not within the time frame he has been proposing.
Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST September 12 2016
================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Meranti (920 hPa) located at 18.3N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 19.6N 123.9E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.9N 119.4E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 22.6N 115.8E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South China Sea
Quoting 222. HadesGodWyvern:

Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST September 12 2016
================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Meranti (920 hPa) located at 18.3N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 19.6N 123.9E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.9N 119.4E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 22.6N 115.8E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South China Sea


110 knots = 126.586 miles = category 3 typhoon, NOT a category 5.
Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST September 12 2016
================================

GALE WARNING

West Of The Mariana Islands
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 13.0N 141.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 14.9N 136.7E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines

------------------------------------------

GALE WARNING

In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 14.3N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 16.0N 107.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Laos
Quoting 223. AldreteMichael:



110 knots = 126.586 miles = category 3 typhoon, NOT a category 5.


110 knots on the adjusted JMA intensity is T7.0 (140 knots category five system)

normally on the 10 minute sustained wind average, 120 knots would be Dvorak 7.0
Quoting 225. HadesGodWyvern:



110 knots on the adjusted JMA intensity is T7.0 (140 knots category five system)

normally on the 10 minute sustained wind average, 120 knots would be Dvorak 7.0


Does that mean they don't use the Saffir-Simpson scale?
they don't use the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Good morning. North Korea: better to care for their own people than to develop nuclear weapons:
North Korea flood death toll rises to 133 with 395 missing, says UN
ABC, Posted about an hour ago
The death toll from severe flooding in a North Korean border region has risen to 133 with another 395 missing and tens of thousands left homeless, the UN has said.
Key points:
107,000 people forced to flee their homes
35,500 houses hit by floods
140,000 people urgently need help
Some 107,000 people had been forced to flee their homes in the area along the Tumen River, the UN said in a statement citing Pyongyang Government figures.
People in the north eastern region near the border with China and Russia were suffering "great hardship", according to North Korean state media.
A nationwide mass-mobilisation 200-day labour campaign intended to bolster the economy has been redirected to assist the flood victims.
More than 35,500 houses have been hit by floods, with 69 per cent of them completely destroyed, and 8,700 public buildings damaged, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in a statement.
About 16,000 hectares of farmland had been inundated and at least 140,000 people urgently needed help, it said.
OCHA said a group made up of UN agencies, international NGOs, the international Red Cross and the North's Red Cross had visited parts of the flood-stricken region last week to assess needs. ...


Damaging floods hit southern Italy this weekend due to the cut off low which is still around:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILH8f4uBGH0
Compilation of videos.

Germany: Last three days of gorgeous summer weather with temps around 86F or more :-)
Have a nice Monday, everyone!


And here is Meranti :-o
230. beell
Does not look like a typical shear map should this time of year. Wow.

Even 94L may not get named.

Makes me wonder what will happen with all the heat energy in the Atlantic. Please not another October homegrown surprise. Or are we going to see some fall hybrid systems with a punch?

Quoting 230. beell:


My mother would have had no problems with this. She had "eyes in the back of her head."

Quoting 201. Grothar:



Unfortunately, people with big noses will not see it clearly.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19N23W 14N25W 09N26W.
This wave cuts across the Cabo Verde Islands. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N to 15N between
20W and 30W.
Nepartak went from 40 to 175 mph in 72 hours - Link
Meranti has gone from 40 to 150 mph in 48 hours - Link
Who will win the 2016 Rapid Intensification contest?

Quoting 229. barbamz:


And here is Meranti :-o
94 looks harmless but watching the tail of it moving west.
another no namer heading for e cen florida?

Quoting 235. SPShaw:

Nepartak went from 40 to 175 mph in 72 hours - Link
Meranti has gone from 40 to 150 mph in 48 hours - Link
Who will win the 2016 Rapid Intensification contest?


My money is on Meranti, it s still cranking up and the eye has warmed significantly.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
410 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today-Wednesday)...satellite and model analyzes show
the presence of a sfc trough lingering over the Bahamas, which is
expected to begin moving to the northwest today. Associated
showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the Bahamas, and
streaming into South Florida under prevailing east southeast flow.
Latest sounding data depicts a moist airmass over the area with
pwat values around 2 inches and becoming more unstable ahead of
the trough. The National Hurricane Center in Miami will continue
to monitor the progress of this system, although at this time, it
is not expected to experience significant tropical development
during the next few days.

Abundant moisture will likely continue to stream across the area
through mid week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
favoring the afternoon hours. However, the eventual solution of
the trough will surely require further adjustments to the overall
forecast scenario for the short term depending on when will the
trough reach the Florida peninsula. Models suggest the trough
could actually move into central Florida by late Tuesday, which
may keep a rather wet pattern across the area through Wednesday
morning. Main potential threats from any thunderstorm that forms
will be brief periods of gusty winds, lightning strikes and
localized flooding.
These storms never get old... I have no doubt whatsoever that Meranti is already a Cat 5 equivalent.



12/0830 UTC 18.6N 128.9E T7.0/7.0 MERANTI -- West Pacific
241. beell
Alas, if it were not for the northwesterly shear, on-again, off-again, 93L might finally become blob-o-licious today.


06Z GFS 850 mb vorticity, heights, winds-valid 2PM EDT.


("saved" ir loop)

Quoting 240. MAweatherboy1:

These storms never get old... I have no doubt whatsoever that Meranti is already a Cat 5 equivalent.



12/0830 UTC 18.6N 128.9E T7.0/7.0 MERANTI -- West Pacific
Me too, another fine example of these "new generation" cyclones we are seeing now like Patricia or Haiyan. My guess is we will see 150 or more knots in next advisory.
Quoting 234. Chicklit:


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19N23W 14N25W 09N26W.
This wave cuts across the Cabo Verde Islands. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N to 15N between
20W and 30W.

The next one forming over Nigeria looks quite big, too:

african wave do mean nada if the atlantic is uncooperative

Totally not a C5.
ex 93 "no name" is forecast acc/ to headline news to give us 6 " plus of rain e cen fl.
Quoting 238. NoobDave:


My money is on Meranti, it s still cranking up and the eye has warmed significantly.



It is RI'ing like crazy. My Dvorak estimate is T8, aka 195 mph. YOU SAW THAT RIGHT, 195 MPH

Quoting 245. NunoLava1998:


Totally not a C5.


100 % a cat 5.
Quoting 248. NoobDave:




100 % a cat 5.


My Dvorak estimate for the thing is 200 mph already, lol.
Quoting 232. HaoleboySurfEC:

Does not look like a typical shear map should this time of year. Wow.

Even 94L may not get named.

Makes me wonder what will happen with all the heat energy in the Atlantic. Please not another October homegrown surprise. Or are we going to see some fall hybrid systems with a punch?




I don't think I've ever seen a more hostile looking Atlantic during the peak of the season before. We could be looking at a well below average September, IMO.
Well help make up for our drought that we had here in ecfl a couple of months back.
Quoting 246. islander101010:

ex 93 "no name" is forecast acc/ to headline news to give us 6 " plus of rain e cen fl.
Quoting 247. NunoLava1998:


It is RI'ing like crazy. My Dvorak estimate is T8, aka 195 mph. YOU SAW THAT RIGHT, 195 MPH


Still nothing like Patricia's 215mph.
Quoting 241. beell:

Alas, if it were not for the northwesterly shear, on-again, off-again, 93L might finally become blob-o-licious today.


06Z GFS 850 mb vorticity, heights, winds-valid 2PM EDT.


("saved" ir loop)


Plussed you for using the word "alas". :/
Looking at the shear map this morning I can see why the Euro was never excited about 94L.It's about to run into 70 knots of shear.

Next one (Wp 18) already at the heels of Meranti.
Quoting 254. washingtonian115:

Looking at the shear map this morning I can see why the Euro was never excited about 94L.It's about to run into 70 knots of shear.

The 00z run was a little stronger:
257. beell
Quoting 253. pingon:



Plussed you for using the word "alas". :/


You really should not encourage me, but thank you!
Have a good 'un!

Alack, Alack, Alack! O Wall O'Shear, O sweet , O lovely Wall O'Shear, that stand'st between Floridaland and 93L...

Quoting 250. CybrTeddy:



I don't think I've ever seen a more hostile looking Atlantic during the peak of the season before. We could be looking at a well below average September, IMO.



we could even see hurricane season shut down by mid too late September we have seen that happen be for


James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV 9 Min.
This image puts the terrifying scale of super #typhoon #Meranti into perspective! Huge circulation!

James Reynolds is already looking for a place in Taiwan to cover Meranti.
Quoting 244. islander101010:

african wave do mean nada if the atlantic is uncooperative
Very True.
261. beell

94L
Quoting 261. beell:


94L


Has NOAA said anything about why their sats have been shaky lately? Been that way for like 2 weeks now.
Good Morning Folks. Back from Orlando and the Atlantic "peak" may have occurred a few weeks ago with the culmination of Hermine along with the other struggling waves and the exception of the mid-Atlantic track hurricanes. Meanwhile the Pacific Basin is very active.

Between the end of the active AMO period for the Atlantic, and the dry air issues we have been seeing now for several seasons across the Central Atlantic and Caribbean (hard to believe that minimal hurricane Hermine was the first to make landfall in the US in 10 years) you have to wonder if we are seeing climatological shifts in large scale factors due to global warming with connections, on the Atlantic side of the world, which we have yet to understand.

Combined image of all basins






264. beell
Quoting 262. VAbeachhurricanes:



Has NOAA said anything about why their sats have been shaky lately? Been that way for like 2 weeks now.


They didn't say anything to me about it. :) May have something to do with GOES Eclipse Operations,

Maybe a better question for nrt.

That is a good looking wave coming off of Africa but not much behind it; have to see how the models handle this wave in the long term:




Quoting 266. weathermanwannabe:

That is a good looking wave coming off of Africa but not much behind it; have to see how the models handle this wave in the long term:







Dos not really matter how good the waves may look if you got wind shear that's 70kt wish is vary unfavorable a Hole lot of nothing is going to happen too the wave plus the dry air you have.
Quoting 247. NunoLava1998:


It is RI'ing like crazy. My Dvorak estimate is T8, aka 195 mph. YOU SAW THAT RIGHT, 195 MPH

TPPN11 PGTW 121245

A. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI)
B. 12/1200Z
C. 18.87N
D. 128.16E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
Meranti trying to form a smaller eye that's more centered.



And conditions are gonna become more favorable. I'll not be surprised if it reaches 220 mph.
Woke up to this, huh?

which model is considered the best for forecasting local weather here in the states?
Quoting 268. SPShaw:


TPPN11 PGTW 121245

A. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI)
B. 12/1200Z
C. 18.87N
D. 128.16E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

D3.0?... um what?
Per fnmoc.navy.mil - Meranti as of 1200Z is at 907 mb with 155 knot winds.
(178 mph or 287 kph) - Looks like it may beat Nepartak in the RI challenge for 2016.

Quoting 259. barbamz:



James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV 9 Min.
This image puts the terrifying scale of super #typhoon #Meranti into perspective! Huge circulation!

James Reynolds is already looking for a place in Taiwan to cover Meranti.


They were hit recently by a super typhoon, albeit with the worst damage in less populated areas. Hopefully that happens again.
This is worse than last year when we were in the middle of a super El Niño.


Quoting 271. pipelines:

which model is considered the best for forecasting local weather here in the states?


That will be debated.
When I discussed this with the chief meteorologist on a local station here, I was surprised when he told me he favors the NAM for short term local forecasts.

I love the WPac storms there fun too track b

All so I love. Them at this time of year has they can recovered out too sea and the lifted overs hit CA an bring welcome rains
Quoting 272. NunoLava1998:


D3.0?... um what?

Ref: T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
Maybe someone with a little more knowledge than i have can explain these readings. What it looks like to me, is that it has a current intensity of 7.5, has increased 3.0 in the past 24 hrs, and at a rate of 0.5 every 3 hours?
Quoting 278. SPShaw:


Ref: T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
Maybe someone with a little more knowledge than i have can explain these readings. What it looks like to me, is that it has a current intensity of 7.5, has increased 3.0 in the past 24 hrs, and at a rate of 0.5 every 3 hours?

It's that, except 0.5 every 3 hours = 3.0 in 18 hours, so means something else.
Meranti is absolutely beautiful...and absolutely frightening.
Quoting 264. beell:



They didn't say anything to me about it. :) May have something to do with GOES Eclipse Operations,

Maybe a better question for nrt.




Don't know of anything specific although they did have a Star Tracker problem a few weeks ago. Could be like RapidScat being out since Aug 25 and very little info has been released.
Quoting 278. SPShaw:


Ref: T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
Maybe someone with a little more knowledge than i have can explain these readings. What it looks like to me, is that it has a current intensity of 7.5, has increased 3.0 in the past 24 hrs, and at a rate of 0.5 every 3 hours?


Dvorak code - long term trend, 10 char.
(18-30 hour change in t-number)
T num, none or 0.0 - 8.0
CI num, none or 0.0 - 8.0
Forecast intensity change, + - or blank
Past change - developed, steady, weakened (long term trend)
Amount of t num change, none or 0.0 - 8.0
Hours since previous eval, 18 - 30 HRS
Example: T4.0/4.0+/D1.0/24HRS
Entry: 4040+D1024


Link
Quoting 263. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. Back from Orlando and the Atlantic "peak" may have occurred a few weeks ago with the culmination of Hermine along with the other struggling waves and the exception of the mid-Atlantic track hurricanes. Meanwhile the Pacific Basin is very active.

Between the end of the active AMO period for the Atlantic, and the dry air issues we have been seeing now for several seasons across the Central Atlantic and Caribbean (hard to believe that minimal hurricane Hermine was the first to make landfall in the US in 10 years) you have to wonder if we are seeing climatological shifts in large scale factors due to global warming with connections, on the Atlantic side of the world, which we have yet to understand.

Combined image of all basins









You forgot Ike...he hit 8 years ago tomorrow. I know, I went through it lol.

Meranti is so beautifully well-organized, the new advisory pins the intensity of this mighty super typhoon at 180 miles per hour and 905 milibars. It's expected to weaken to cat 4 before it hits Taiwan, like Nepartak did earlier this year, but still.
Quoting 275. Bucsboltsfan:

This is worse than last year when we were in the middle of a super El Niño.



I remember there were people on here saying we would eat our words come September...Well its September and its the peak.The shear is high across most of the basin.Again..unless October pulls off some magical show we could see just an average season.
Now we know what docs next post will be about, Meranti has definitely broken records for rapid intensification...from 40 mph to 180 mph in under 60 hours!!! That s brutal.
Glad X93L is running out of time. Appears a surface circulation has developed just NNW of Nassau (MYNN)
Quoting 284. Ryan1000:


Meranti is so beautifully well-organized, the new advisory pins the intensity of this mighty super typhoon at 180 miles per hour and 905 milibars. It's expected to weaken to cat 4 before it hits Taiwan, like Nepartak did earlier this year, but still.

I still see a lot of room for intensification. It seems like it's 195 mph according to Dvorak but official ones can't stop saying T7.5, aka 180 mph.
Quoting 285. washingtonian115:

I remember there were people on here saying we would eat our words come September...Well its September and its the peak.The shear is high across most of the basin.Again..unless October pulls off some magical show we could see just an average season.

I would not consider a season with the first hurricane to hit Florida in 11 years and an annular hurricane as average
Quoting 287. NoobDave:

Now we know what docs next post will be about, Meranti has definitely broken records for rapid intensification...from 40 mph to 180 mph in under 60 hours!!! That s brutal.



54 to be exact. :)
Patricia went from 40 to 200 in 39 hours - Link
Taiwan with more incredible surf. There are known surf spots on the east coast but I have been unable to find any cams. Link

Quoting 286. Grothar:




TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2016
"NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS IAN"
BREAKING NEWS!

Tropical Storm IAN has formed in the Atlantic.

The 9th named storm of the season.
Well, I know for one, Washi is not gonna be happy that 94L got named to Ian that quick, with it's current appearance, and the shear it soon run into.
Ian is here! 9-4-1
Welcome Tropical Storm Ian
Sad, Very Sad, to have this take the name Ian.
Trash storm and nothing to be excited about.This is the mess that replaced this beauty
Quoting 216. daddyjames:



They are easy enough to find. They are guest commentaries that he wrote in the Tuscon Weekly.

PedleyCA gave you the link for: Rising gas prices, sporadic shortages are signs of the impending Tucson apocalypse (2006)

Expect the beginning of the end of Tucson as we know it to arrive next year (2007)

Addendum: Nothing necessarily wrong with what he is saying per se.
In 2007, he was saying you would need a horse within 5 years to move around Tuscon, because oil would be $400/barrel . . . .
He is an "End-of-Times-is-near" kinda guy - eventually he will be correct, but not within the time frame he has been proposing.


What do horses eat? (hint it does not grow well in AZ]

There is still a lot of expensive to extract oil in the ground. As prices rise it will become profitable to extract it. This happened early this decade leading to our current glut. With low prices a lot of the extracting companies will
go bankrupt leading to supply disruption and much higher prices.. then out of the carnage, new companies will form to extract at the again profitable much higher prices. And at high prices, alternative energy becomes competitive and profitable to produce and deliver further dampening a supply shock. It doesn't mean we might not see gas lines and huge gas price spikes for a short time but we won't run out of oil or natural gas for several to many decades, which also means we'll keep adding its carbon to the atmosphere.

Solar storms or lone wolf/rouge state nuclear or bioterrorisim or cyber disruption worry me much more.


It looks like Ian is going to be a fish storm, and it unlikely to reach Hurricane status
Quoting 297. Climate175:

Well, I know for one, Washi is not gonna be happy that 94L got named to Ian that quick, with it's current appearance, and the shear it soon run into.


Was my first thought too! Ah well, to be used again someday...

And WPAC looks like it's got an all out assault going on. Not just a chain of storms in a row, all over the freaking place
Quoting 297. Climate175:

Well, I know for one, Washi is not gonna be happy that 94L got named to Ian that quick, with it's current appearance, and the shear it soon run into.


It poses near zero threat to my Mid Atlantic home so I'm happy.
Ian Livingston @islivingston 8m
Lame.
What the- oh hi Ian. Wasn't expecting you ....... sorry Washingtonian115 lol

Quoting 304. mitthbevnuruodo:



Was my first thought too! Ah well, to be used again someday...

And WPAC looks like it's got an all out assault going on. Not just a chain of storms in a row, all over the freaking place
Yea, 6 year wait to 2022.
309. beell


TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2016


Visible satellite images and a recent ASCAT overpass show that the low pressure system over the central Atlantic has now acquired a well-defined low-level circulation. The scatterometer data showed tropical-storm-force winds over the northern semicircle of the circulation, and the advisory intensity is set to 35 kt. Ian is not a well organized storm, with the low-level center exposed and displaced about 70 n mi to the southwest of the main area of deep convection. This is due to the effect of about 20 kt of vertical shear over the system, and this strong shear is predicted to persist for at least the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, so some slow intensification could begin by tomorrow night. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. In 120 hours, or sooner, the system should become embedded within a frontal zone over north Atlantic and lose tropical characteristics.

Ian is moving northwestward, with initial motion estimated to be about 320/11 kt. The storm is currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. In the next few days, a 500 mb trough approaching from the west should cause Ian to turn northward and then north-northeastward while accelerating. The official forecast track leans toward the ECMWF solution, but is also not far from the latest dynamical model consensus.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 301. washingtonian115:

Trash storm and nothing to be excited about.This is the mess that replaced this beauty

Atlantic active era is probably over.
Schweeet'....

Both waves are worth watching. One currently over Africa, and Pouch 34L, which is currently off the coast of Africa. Even though conditions are only slightly favorable for development, Pouch 34L may move quite far west as some of the EURO models are suggesting.
Happy birthday Jeff! Thanks for your efforts starting and continuing this site!!
314. beell
Quoting 300. Climate175:

Sad, Very Sad, to have this take the name Ian.


It has the winds and a vigorous, closed, LLC. Maybe some could raise issues regarding "organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center", but the NHC has not exercised any consistency on that part of the definition for quite some time.

Welcome, Ian!
Emotion wrapped up in weather is not always pretty.

Myself,I'm always happy to c a CV spinner take the tropical heat poleward.



Quoting 313. isopycnal:

Happy birthday Jeff! Thanks for your efforts starting and continuing this site!!


Thanks! It was nice to have Bob Henson and a quiet Atlantic allow me to take the day off and enjoy a day at the ballpark watching the Detroit Tigers play.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 311. Patrap:

Schweeet'....



Yeah, looks like x92 is still pulsing, can clearly see it on the visible satellite loop. It actually has some convection for once around its center too. Wonder if x93 and x92 could join forces, to form something in the eastern gulf and take a track similar to Hermine??
Meranti might be 900 mb now, keeps looking better

ns
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
757 am CDT Monday Sep 12 2016

..sounding discussion...

An unstable and very moist atmosphere is in place over the central
Gulf Coast states with MLCAPE of 1268 j/kg and precipitable water
value of 2.1 inches. The main concern today will be heavy rainfall
potential with the high precipitable water and slow storm motions (around 5 knots).
Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected with a k index value of 38 and Li of -5. Winds are
generally under 15 knots with variable direction through 40000
feet.

12z balloon info: a routine flight ascending for 106 minutes to a
height of 19.4 miles above the ground bursting near Lacombe 9
miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CDT Monday Sep 12 2016/

Short term...
frontolytic boundary over the area may become problematic by
enhancing focus with lake and Gulf breezes today for slow and
erratic storm motions. This may result in some localized flooding
with rain rates at times 2-3 in/hr. Went with 40-60% rain chance
today and close to consensus temperatures near 90f before rain
cools back into the lower 80s to mid 70s. The front should have
less influence Tuesday for a more typical Gulf Breeze regime and
near normal temperatures. 24/rr

Long term...
a rather lax pressure gradient to maintain barotropic conditions
for the mid-Gulf states through the end of the workweek.
Meanwhile, long-wave troughing takes place farther west that will
persist into next week. Some weak upper level impulses may move
through the region emanating from base-trough dynamics across the
Lower Plains to offer some variability in rainfall coverage during
the weekend and early next week. Essentially going with model
consensus rain chances that are a few percent higher than normal
for September with the better chances on Saturday and Sunday as
very weak and dissipating frontal boundary settles into the Gulf
states, per GFS and European model (ecmwf) models. In the end, Bermuda ridge wins
out still but should begin to weaken or become displaced in time
as troughing gains frequency next week and beyond. 24/rr



Hurricane Orlene at dawn.

Super Typhoon Meranti. Top winds at 155 kts/178 mph.
Quoting 318. win1gamegiantsplease:

Meranti might be 900 mb now, keeps looking better




SSD has been at 898 mb

20160912 | 0830 | W-PAC | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 18.6 | -128.9 | 898 | 140 | 16W | MERANTI | 1 | AS
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-- ---|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----| -----------------|-----|---------


20160912 | 1430 | W-PAC | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 19.1 | -127.5 | 898 | 140 | 16W | MERANTI | 1 | JV


Link
105 knots 938 pressure for Typhoon FERDIE.. (very below intensity)

** WTPH21 RPMM 121200 ***
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07

TY {MERANTI} (1614) TIME 1200Z UTC
00 18.9N 128.1E 938 HPA 54M/S
P06HR WNW AT 06M/S
P+24 20.1N 123.4E
P+48 21.3N 119.3E
P+72 23.1N 115.7E
P+96 26.5N 115.4E

PAGASA=
About 130 knots from China Meteorological Administration

** WTPQ20 BABJ 121500 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY MERANTI 1614 (1614) INITIAL TIME 121500 UTC
00HR 19.1N 127.5E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
250KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 22KM/H
Quoting 316. JeffMasters:



Thanks! It was nice to have Bob Henson and a quiet Atlantic allow me to take the day off and enjoy a day at the ballpark watching the Detroit Tigers play.

Jeff Masters


Gone are the days when the good Doc taking any sort of break meant high drama in the ATL... Happy Birthday sir.
Quoting 310. Gearsts:

Atlantic active era is probably over.



It will come back though, be sure of that :p After all everything in weather is basically one giant interlocking oscillation. Just think by 2025 might be picking up again. Some people in New England are very upset about the drought. Here as in most areas it always evens out, I suspect then everyone will complain about all the rain and or snow when this ends. I'm actually more concerned about a rebound flood in the next 6-7 months since I live on a river.
Meranti is looking very strong.
current signal warnings for Luzon

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
TYPHOON FERDIE
============================================

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
----------------------
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 4.1 - 14.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------------
1. Batanes
2. Babuyan group of islands

Signal Warning #1
----------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------------
1. Rest of Cagayan
2. northern Isabela
3. Kalinga
4. Apayao
5. Abra
6. Ilocos Norte

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy rains within its 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

The typhoon is expected to be in the vicinity of Batanes on Wednesday morning.

Residents in extreme Northern Luzon are advised to take precautionary measures against impacts of very strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting 325. LemieT:



Gone are the days when the good Doc taking any sort of break meant high drama in the ATL... Happy Birthday sir.


When I was younger I used to (cynically and not accurately either) observe that most rain where I was residing fell on weekends. Failure of the "weekend monsoon" was diagnostic of intense drought since the atmosphere couldn't even conjure up rain on weekends.

The actual truth in my life is closer to the converse.. I've tended to luck out being elsewhere during bad weather.


Looks like the Atlantic will need help from the Pacific this year. In October, something may come up from the BOC, etc.
Here we go again. Lets see if this comes true at the end of the month. MJO hasn't crossed over yet and this is about the 4th or 5th time we were expecting this thing. June was the only month we really had a good pulse.
Quoting 326. George1938:



It will come back though, be sure of that :p After all everything in weather is basically one giant interlocking oscillation. Just think by 2025 might be picking up again. Some people in New England are very upset about the drought. Here as in most areas it always evens out, I suspect then everyone will complain about all the rain and or snow when this ends. I'm actually more concerned about a rebound flood in the next 6-7 months since I live on a river.


DC area was moist (close to optimal) most of the summer but has turned very very dry in the past three weeks. I can't complain though, the summer as a whole has been much less droughty than usual and grass has stayed green most of the summer (esp warm season grass and crabgrass). My late corn is starting to roll (wilt) now though.
Quoting 285. washingtonian115:

I remember there were people on here saying we would eat our words come September...Well its September and its the peak.The shear is high across most of the basin.Again..unless October pulls off some magical show we could see just an average season.


We are above average in named storms and I believe in ACE as well. Not all seasons are the same.
Quoting 331. bigwes6844:

Here we go again. Lets see if this comes true at the end of the month. MJO hasn't crossed over yet and this is about the 4th or 5th time we were expecting this thing. June was the only month we really had a good pulse.

My question on this there are 3 versions of this on the MJO page. Which one is best, or do you look for consensus.
Quoting 331. bigwes6844:

Here we go again. Lets see if this comes true at the end of the month. MJO hasn't crossed over yet and this is about the 4th or 5th time we were expecting this thing. June was the only month we really had a good pulse.



Where have we seen this before... Oh yes, every single MJO forecast since May or June as you said. I don't buy this MJO thing being a dedicated cycle. Too often it's never in the ATL. I doubt very much the the phrase "cirlces the globe every 60-90 days" applies in any meaningful way to this apparently basin selective phenomenon.




NASA Analysis Finds August 2016 Another Record Month
Posted Sep. 12, 2016



National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Goddard Space Flight Center
Sciences and Exploration Directorate
Earth Sciences Division
GISTEMP Update

NASA Analysis Finds August 2016 Another Record Month
Posted Sep. 12, 2016

August 2016 was the warmest August in 136 years of modern record-keeping, according to a monthly analysis of global temperatures by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.


Although the seasonal temperature cycle typically peaks in July, August 2016 wound up tied with July 2016 for the warmest month ever recorded. August 2016's temperature was 0.16 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous warmest August in 2014. Last month also was 0.98 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean August temperature from 1951-1980.

"Monthly rankings, which vary by only a few hundredths of a degree, are inherently fragile," said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. "We stress that the long-term trends are the most important for understanding the ongoing changes that are affecting our planet."

The record warm August continued a streak of 11 consecutive months dating back to October 2015 that have set new monthly high-temperature records. The monthly analysis by the GISS team is assembled from publicly available data acquired by about 6,300 meteorological stations around the world, ship- and buoy-based instruments measuring sea surface temperature, and Antarctic research stations. The modern global temperature record begins around 1880 because previous observations didn't cover enough of the planet.

Related Links
For more information on NASA GISS's monthly temperature analysis, visit: data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp.

For more information about NASA GISS, visit: www.giss.nasa.gov.
Good [late] morning all.... we're finally seeing a little brightness now after a morning of showers and some gusty winds due to 93L .... which is moving through the central and NW Bahamas today.

I see we have Ian, as well. We may actually get a decent storm out of this, it seems, though perhaps not the behemoth certain Ians were hoping for ....
Anyone see a small spin on radar just off the North tip of Andros?
Quoting 335. unknowncomic:

My question on this there are 3 versions of this on the MJO page. Which one is best, or do you look for consensus.


You'd probably look for consensus as with any other model predictions.

Quoting 333. Hurricanes101:



We are above average in named storms and I believe in ACE as well. Not all seasons are the same.
ACE wise Atlantic is below average. It s actually at about 80 % of average activity and I don t think that "mighty" Ian will boost ACE significantly.
Quoting 310. Gearsts:

Atlantic active era is probably over.


SSTs change rapidly in the Atlantic. Just a week ago, MDR SSTs were much above average. I'm going to wait until the end of the season before I say the active era is over.
Quoting 340. BoyntonBeachFL:

Anyone see a small spin on radar just off the North tip of Andros?


This one?

Quoting 333. Hurricanes101:



We are above average in named storms and I believe in ACE as well. Not all seasons are the same.

People are making this season out to be worse than it really is. 9-4-1 isn't hyperactive, but it's far from dead.
Quoting 334. Patrap:








Juan was a very cool temperature system... Living near Houston it was windy with tons of drizzle and mist...
Wow...

Quoting 316. JeffMasters:



Thanks! It was nice to have Bob Henson and a quiet Atlantic allow me to take the day off and enjoy a day at the ballpark watching the Detroit Tigers play.

Jeff Masters
Happy Birthday doc...Enjoy your special day
Quoting 344. ChillinInTheKeys:



This one?





YES
351. 7544
Quoting 344. ChillinInTheKeys:



This one?




llc?
Impressive cyclone!

Quoting 344. ChillinInTheKeys:



This one?




I see a possible Low Level Circulation just north of Andros Island moving wnw. Do you guys see it?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Orlene looks like it is too far west to help the West Coast, but the monsoons are trying to make a comeback. Newton dropped moisture in an area that wasn't very helpful to the West:
Link
no lunch time read today guess i got to have lunch with no read


just kidding
UW’s Cliff Mass: The warm ‘Blob’ is back in the Pacific Ocean

Link
Quoting 257. beell:



You really should not encourage me, but thank you!
Have a good 'un!

Alack, Alack, Alack! O Wall O'Shear, O sweet , O lovely Wall O'Shear, that stand'st between Floridaland and 93L...


Will would be proud -- or rolling over in his grave!