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Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. GatorWX
Seems to be evolving rather fast, idk.

Hey guys if SHIPS is correct and we do get a 82kts hurricane ESE of Grand Cayman and if this were to make it into the GOM just imagine what this thing could become
Quoting 1498. Abacosurf:
mmm. low fat shrimp. Are they organic?


No imported organic shrimp from Ecuador, they're fresh from the Gulf, compliments of the man that has his truck on the side of the road. He's there rain or shine during the season.
Quoting 1500. washingtonian115:


For us visual people.

Wow I just ate now that's making me hungry
1505. K8eCane
Quoting 1504. wunderkidcayman:

Wow I just ate now that's making me hungry


if you are like my 13 year old you can easily eat again
Quoting 1494. HurricaneAndre:
thanks.

Your welcome.

--
Anyways, TS Yutu is not being analyzed as a tropical storm at all by JTWC; not even an AOI. Maybe it's because it is sheared. Will they keep on analyzing this as just a tropical disturbance when it crosses into the Central Pacific?

By the way, Yutu will be the fourth tropical cyclone(the first to cross from the EHem) to cross the International Date Line.
1507. GatorWX
Click to loop.

Quoting 1503. aislinnpaps:


No imported organic shrimp from Ecuador, they're fresh from the Gulf, compliments of the man that has his truck on the side of the road. He's there rain or shine during the season.
Thats cool! Gotta watch out for those Chinese pond raised shrimp full of hormones and antibiotics. LOL
That's all they sell at Publix.
97 L still strtched out from WSW to ENE but looking more consolidated than yesterday!
1510. IKE

55m
Energy strung out with system moving into islands...West winds at Barbados indicate this has a low level circulation
Quoting 1500. washingtonian115:


For us visual people.


I just...well..... that just aint right.....all I got is chex with no milk, Had a 1/2 gallon last night, then the kids cane home...........
Quoting 1505. K8eCane:


if you are like my 13 year old you can easily eat again

If I was 13 again I could eat up to about 3-4 times the amount in that image but I've grown and I'm too old to do that again and to skinny as well
1513. WxLogic
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.
With the low level structure being as large as it is, I wonder how big 97L could get if it became a storm.
Hey guys I think that 97L is stretched out because it want to have one foot in the Caribbean before the rest of it gets in you know
Quoting 1495. aislinnpaps:
Post 1488

Morning Mic, I've missed your pictures in the mornings since school started back up. Even the smiling faces of my little kids there aren't quite the same as Dexter in the morning. *G*


I had a real streak going up until yesterday. Been posting at exactly 9am for what? a couple months anyway. I was gonna make up for it by posting pics of all of us over at the ocean yesterday (Dex played ball, Dex swam, Dex dug holes), but unfortunately the camera failed to make the trip. Technologically speaking, yesterday was a disaster (this morning started out rough as well, when my pics refused to be sent), but fun-wise, it was a great success!
Its officially Sept and we are still at
6-bust-bust WT_

Does the wave entering the carb really have a chance? NHC say no,
In other news, all the GFS runs that called for hurricane development of 96L over the CV islands are officially massive busts, lol.

1520. hydrus
Quoting 1513. WxLogic:
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.
If this system reaches the Western Caribbean, it could be a serious problem.
Quoting 1513. WxLogic:
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.

Good one but mate you're a little late it's already increasing its TSTM activity

Quoting 1514. RascalNag:
With the low level structure being as large as it is, I wonder how big 97L could get if it became a storm.


It could get big but normally big invest tend to shed their size once becoming a storm and consolidate
1522. hydrus
Quoting 1512. wunderkidcayman:

If I was 13 again I could eat up to about 3-4 times the amount in that image but I've grown and I'm too old to do that again and to skinny as well
Yep..Your ancient..:)
Quoting 1521. wunderkidcayman:


It could get big but normally big invest tend to shed their size once becoming a storm and consolidate


Hopefully that's the case. I think everyone learned with Sandy that big storms = extreme surge.
Quoting 1520. hydrus:
If this system reaches the Western Caribbean, it could be a serious problem.

Maybe that's why SHIPS forecast it to be a 82kts hurricane when it get there though it should be high if that's the case because those heat potentials are high enough to support a moderate to high end major hurricane
1525. hydrus
Quoting 1522. hydrus:
Yep..Your ancient..:)

Lol
I ain't that that old

Quoting 1523. RascalNag:


Hopefully that's the case. I think everyone learned with Sandy that big storms = extreme surge.


The Caribbean learn their lesson from Hurricane Ivan Gilbert Wilma and a few others
Well Caribbean and Gulf coast citizens,batter down the hatches,this could be a big one.
Quoting 1525. hydrus:


BAMM and LBAR tracks are the most dangerous scenarios in my opinion... would avoid most land in the Caribbean and give it a lot of time in the GOM as well.

Apparently the NHC made a mistake; Gil was a hurricane, but it is written a TS.
Quoting 1525. hydrus:


Starting to look a lot like the models of past hurricane that past through here
Quoting 1527. HurricaneAndre:
Well Caribbean and Gulf coast citizens,batter down the hatches,this could be a big one.

I here you.

Quoting 1528. RascalNag:


BAMM and LBAR tracks are the most dangerous scenarios in my opinion... would avoid most land in the Caribbean and give it a lot of time in the GOM as well.

Problematic for us here in Cayman

Quoting 1530. wunderkidcayman:


Starting to look a lot like the models of past hurricane that past through here
This reminds me of Gustav forming.
G'morning all. Just got back from a week in San Antonio, Tx. Great town to vacation in! Still fairly quiet in the ATL basin. Sept has a way of changing that tho. Only time will tell. I'd just as soon not have 97L develope because it will be an impact system, possibly the GOM. I'd rather watch fish.
1534. IKE
***Alprazolam needed on the blog***
Quoting 1532. HurricaneAndre:
This reminds me of Gustav forming.

Lol thinking about it yeah it kinda does and it also reminds me of a few others
1538. hydrus
Quoting 1534. IKE:
***Alprazolam needed on the blog***
Al who.??!!
I think 97L will have code orange at the next TWO.
Quoting 1513. WxLogic:
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.
watch out for p27L MAYBE A BIG HURRICANE DOWN THE ROAD AND IT SOUTH TO
1541. 19N81W
Quoting 1527. HurricaneAndre:
Well Caribbean and Gulf coast citizens,batter down the hatches,this could be a big one.


relax guys based on this season I am sure it will be fine.
Quoting 1539. HurricaneAndre:
I think 97L will have code orange at the next TWO.

I think so to or at least yellow 30% and maybe orange 40%/50% in 5days
1543. hydrus
1544. txjac
Quoting 1533. PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Just got back from a week in San Antonio, Tx. Great town to vacation in! Still fairly quiet in the ATL basin. Sept has a way of changing that tho. Only time will tell. I'd just as soon not have 97L develope because it will be an impact system, possibly the GOM. I'd rather watch fish.


Wow, wish I would have known you were coming this way ...would have drove over to meet you and your wife for a drink or something
Good morning..Are there any cold fronts coming down with in the next week..
Quoting 1541. 19N81W:


relax guys based on this season I am sure it will be fine.

Never follow what the season has done once you enter September this mate is a whole other ball game


Huh? United Surface Analysis analyzes Yutu as an extratropical cyclone. LOL That's why the JTWC didn't designate it as a TS.
Quoting 1545. bayoubug:
Good morning..Are there any cold fronts coming down with in the next week..

Yeah I think so but it's later in the week
1549. 19N81W
Quoting 1546. wunderkidcayman:

Never follow what the season has done once you enter September this mate is a whole other ball game



and other 35 seasons I have been through dont count either then. No need to panic by any means at this point its not even a closed low.
HERE IS P28L
Quoting 1548. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah I think so but it's later in the week
That's what i thought..That should keep the northern gulf coast clear..Hopefully..Florida needs to pay attention..
Quoting 1544. txjac:


Wow, wish I would have known you were coming this way ...would have drove over to meet you and your wife for a drink or something


Thanx for the thought. I would've liked that. I didn't want to advertise an empty home.
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.
Quoting 1549. 19N81W:


and other 35 seasons I have been through dont count either then. No need to panic by any means at this point its not even a closed low.

Yes no need to panic yet
And yes it is a closed low
It may be elongated some bit it is closed last I checked
Quoting 1552. bayoubug:
That's what i thought..That should keep the northern gulf coast clear..Hopefully..Florida needs to pay attention..

Everybody from 65W needs to watch it lol

Quoting 1554. CybrTeddy:
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.

Yes most certainly and well it is the time of year to find a spike in tropical activity
1559. wpb
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311545
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 31 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

no woories
1560. hydrus
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.
Link
Near Caymans and Western Cuba on Day 7, edit: earlier this morning.

West Africa satellite image
Quoting 1559. wpb:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311545
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 31 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

no woories

Old recon plan
New one should be out soon and it should have recon flight when it does
Quoting 1486. wunderkidcayman:


Kman I just finish my 9 cup and making my 10th now



That's what you say this could happen and has a very good chance of doing just that



So the NHC gives it a 70% chance it won't develop in 5 days and you are calling for a Cat 2 on your doorstep.
1565. GatorWX
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


I don't think this things as close to glory as some of us want to believe. It has a while to go imo.
Quoting 1554. CybrTeddy:
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.
wouldn`t this one going to crash into SA?
1567. hydrus
Quoting 1553. PensacolaDoug:


Thanx for the thought. I would've liked that. I didn't want to advertise an empty home.
Greetings Doug. Get the genny primed and the shutters out. 97L developed a cloud and is movin west.omhg...
Quoting 1554. CybrTeddy:
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.


... and NAVGEM!
1569. GatorWX
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Also, I tried pointing that out earlier, but I didn't get many takers.
1570. GatorWX
Quoting 1557. SFLWeatherman:



Good observation. Most likely, where something could more reasonably happen.
Good morning every body I normally chat with you guys on the weekends but my laptop decided to randomly stop working. I have been computerless all week....just got it going again late last night
Quoting 1565. GatorWX:


I don't think this things as close to glory as some of us want to believe. It has a while to go imo.


It's not. Maybe if/when it gets to the western Caribbean. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing for a reason.
Quoting 1564. clwstmchasr:


So the NHC gives it a 70% chance it won't develop in 5 days and you are calling for a Cat 2 on your doorstep.

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me
I do not like the way the intensity models are looking for 97 L not good at all
1575. VR46L
Quoting 1572. clwstmchasr:


It's not. Maybe if/when it gets to the western Caribbean. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing for a reason.


...and they also only have it @ 20% for a reason...
Quoting 1573. wunderkidcayman:

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me



if you don't like some one plz this add him too your ignore list


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.
1578. GatorWX

Quoting hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Nothing there hydrus..i really dont know what to make of the season in all honesty. Things can change quickly in the tropics and iam still in favor for an uptick in activtity soon.

we shall see :0(
Quoting 1567. hydrus:
Greeting Doug. Get the genny primed and the shutters out. 97L developed a cloud and is movin west.omhg...



LOL!


Competing lows. Unless they bundle their energy it'll be tough to get a system to feedback. Also the east carrib is generally an unfriendly area (the Hope rule). Still, it is Sept.
AL, 97, 2013090112, , BEST, 0, 146N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO
1582. vis0

1583. ohzone
Quoting 1541. 19N81W:


relax guys based on this season I am sure it will be fine.


I agree and I've dispatched Haarp to ionize it before any further development, happy days are here again.
Quoting weatherlover94:
I do not like the way the intensity models are looking for 97 L not good at all


careful useing those intensity plots as a vortex is being assumed.
Quoting 1573. wunderkidcayman:

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me
Right on!
Quoting 1581. Tazmanian:
AL, 97, 2013090112, , BEST, 0, 146N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO
Look out Portugal !!!
Quoting 1573. wunderkidcayman:

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me


Maybe you'll get your wish. Poof and ignored.
Quoting 1576. Tazmanian:



if you don't like some one plz this add him too your ignore list

No I won't because the guy is good with his info when he's not being a pest to people

Quoting 1577. VAbeachhurricanes:


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.


Look again the has a peak vort max it's just the outer spin is still elongated ENE-WSW there is no multiple spin this is one tight spin and if you follow it outbound it becomes elongated and it has appearance of multiple vorts
Quoting 1584. hurricane23:


careful useing those intensity plots as a vortex is being assumed.


I think we can assume that 97L has a closed low though, based off satellite and ground observations. Intensity models aren't very good with invests, I doubt 97L will ever become a major hurricane. Might not even develop.
1590. hydrus
Quoting 1580. PensacolaDoug:



LOL!


Competing lows. Unless they bundle their energy it'll be tough to get a system to feedback. Also the east carrib is generally an unfriendly area (the Hope rule). Still, it is Sept.
Yes. If they join forces, cat-9, possibly a 10, W/ 80 foot storm surge, 285 mph sustained. Price of gas $1000 a Gal.
Quoting 1587. clwstmchasr:


Maybe you'll get your wish. Poof and ignored.

Fine if that's how you want it poof your ignored
Quoting 1585. Llamaluvr:
Right on!




Ugh trolls on a Sunday morning
Quoting 1512. wunderkidcayman:

If I was 13 again I could eat up to about 3-4 times the amount in that image but I've grown and I'm too old to do that again and to skinny as well


How old are you ??
1594. GatorWX
Quoting 1589. CybrTeddy:


I think we can assume that 97L has a closed low though, based off satellite and ground observations. Intensity models aren't very good with invests, I doubt 97L will ever become a major hurricane. Might not even develop.


Those west winds seem to be a good indication.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think we can assume that 97L has a closed low though, based off satellite and ground observations. Intensity models aren't very good with invests, I doubt 97L will ever become a major hurricane. Might not even develop.


Or head right into CA
1596. GatorWX


Also, surface obs from islands are what I was referring to.
Quoting 1571. weatherlover94:
Good morning every body I normally chat with you guys on the weekends but my laptop decided to randomly stop working. I have been computerless all week....just got it going again late last night
Great to have you back! Just in time for the drama...Tazmanian is calling for a cat 2 to develop and clwstmchsr is doubting him, sit back and enjoy!
Quoting 1586. Llamaluvr:
Look out Portugal !!!


Severe Troll Warning Issued
1599. JRRP
1600. JLPR2
Quoting 1556. HuracandelCaribe:


Exactly what I see and since we know from vort maps that the MLC is weak that is a low level circulation.

97L is doing petty good, though it is still a very shallow system.
Quoting 1595. hurricane23:


Or head right into CA


I don't think it'll do that, personally.
Quoting 1577. VAbeachhurricanes:


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.


couldnt say it better myself....it currently has 3 vorts with the central and eastern vying to be the strongest...

Quoting 1597. Llamaluvr:
Great to have you back! Just in time for the drama...Tazmanian is calling for a cat 2 to develop and clwstmchsr is doubting him, sit back and enjoy!


Is this Wunderground or the YouTube comment section?
1604. LargoFl
I might be wrong but looks like a MLC is forming around 57.2W along 15N. The blob of convection to its east is the area to watch for a MLC center to try and stack up while the low level center has not moved much in the last 4 hours based on satellite it has not yet cross 60W. If this trend continues it will take the rest of today for them to stack up while crossing over the Lesser Antilles.

1606. LargoFl
WENS-THURS-FRIDAY..thats when we will see IF it developes into something...
It seems like convection has been slowly decreasing in the center and SW portions of 97L, while the NE continues to deepen and strengthen. Perhaps it could relocate a center to beneath the really deep stuff to the NW and try to work from there. Might make more progress that way, since that area is really taking off.
1608. JLPR2
The strongest burst of convection is heading westward towards the LLC, either 97L explodes or falls apart.

It's either make it or break now. If it fails to develop before hitting the Caribbean it will have to pass by the E-Caribbean graveyard and try again in the W-Caribbean.

1609. LargoFl
next weekend..........
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) It's so nice to have a long Labor Day weekend to relax!


About as we expected last evening, 97L looks to have coc reformation with various vortices as those westerlies wrap into the system. I've not looked at much else, but I would expect forward speed to have slowed. The system is producing convection along a linear path associated with the ULL and upper trough, TUTT-like feature to its north and northwest, but the main circ is south of that and still moving west. Expect a continued but slower movement west, not northwest, in the still evidenced low-level easterly flow. There's not enough organization or vertical heights to feel much of the weakness north of the system.



I'm gonna go out on a limb here, and say the "John Hope Rule" will be anomalous to 97L's development, as it continues to show a demonstrative effort to consolidate and produce convection over the warm Caribbean waters despite dry air, despite shearing. The largest problem it has is size, a very broad circulation trying to spin up. Until it can tighten up substantially, get some continuous convection popping directly overhead and to the swest of the coc, it may take awhile before we see development further west. All would seem to fit the JHR but I'm thinking we'll see significant improvement before it gets to 75w.
Quoting 1577. VAbeachhurricanes:


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.


Totally agree that it is stretched out. The 850v has to consolidate. Unless it consolidates quickly its going to run into the dead zone in the eastern Caribbean. It has a chance in the western Caribbean where there is a ton of heat energy awaiting for it.
1613. hydrus
Quoting 1609. LargoFl:
next weekend..........
Right through the straights..Maybe..
Morning again all... Anybody have a clue what the iridescence I noticed in the morning sky this morning might be?



It's just to the right of centre in this pic I took...
Everything that comes off Africa this years falls apart when they hit the water. Whats's up with that and the models seem to be a joke. Just hope we don't need them later!!!
Quoting 1615. gulfbreeze:
Everything that comes off Africa this years falls apart when they hit the water. Whats's up with that and the models seem to be a joke. Just hope we don't need them later!!!
You came upon me, wave on wave.
You're the reason I'm still here, yeah.
Am I the one you were sent to save?
You came upon me, wave on wave.Sing

Read more: Pat Green - Wave On Wave Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Quoting 1606. LargoFl:
WENS-THURS-FRIDAY..thats when we will see IF it developes into something...
Quoting 1586. Llamaluvr:
Look out Portugal !!!
Why? I'm here so please tell me what we can get. Thank's!
1618. beell
Quoting 1614. BahaHurican:
Morning again all... Anybody have a clue what the iridescence I noticed in the morning sky this morning might be?



It's just to the right of centre in this pic I took...


Magic.
Link

Visual. Barbados.
Wind is freshening out of the WSW.

1620. hydrus
Quoting 1615. gulfbreeze:
Everything that comes off Africa this years falls apart when they hit the water. Whats's up with that and the models seem to be a joke. Just hope we don't need them later!!!


Too much dry, stable air sucking the life out of the waves.
Just seems like the year that nothing wants to spin.
Quoting 1618. beell:


Magic.
I'll take it, if I'm not the magician... I only make things disappear...
Quoting VR46L:
Is no one interested in the TW in the Carribean just sayin .. I know its poor looking at the moment but it could pull a fernand in a few days ... I would suggest its a better candidate than 97L who has to come through the Graveyard



The graveyard theory doesn't work much in September, living in Puerto Rico all my life, I've seen quite a few waves develop just south east of Puerto Rico, becoming TS, in September and early Oct.,for example, TS Eloisa Sept. 16, 1975, TS Iris Oct.8, 1985. They took us by surprise, causing lots of damages and a very high death toll...


ummm....looks like she might be trying to consolidate further east in the last few frames...
Moved to new blog...
Of course you know it could defy the physics and develop in the Eastern Caribbean. Being how strange this season has been already.

Good morning everyone. Anyone bar-b-cueing today or tomorrow?
1628. beell
Quoting 1623. BahaHurican:
I'll take it, if I'm not the magician... I only make things disappear...


And a staid, pedestrian explanation...

Atmopheric Optics/Wes Cowley
12z NAM at 48 hours
1630. WoodyFL
this has really gone like on a straight line




1200 FRI AUG 30 14.5N 48.5W

1200 SUN SEP 01 14.6N 60.5W
1631. LargoFl
Quoting 1624. HuracanTaino:
The graveyard theory doesn't work much in September, living in Puerto Rico all my life, I've seen quite a few waves develop just south east of Puerto Rico, becoming TS, in September and early Oct.,for example, TS Eloisa Sept. 16, 1975, TS Iris Oct.8, 1985. They took us by surprise, causing lots of damages and a very high death toll...
yes indeed,in sept anything that goes in there needs to be watched carefully
1632. txjac
Quoting 1627. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Of course you know it could defy the physics and develop in the Eastern Caribbean. Being how strange this season has been already.

Good morning everyone. Anyone bar-b-cueing today or tomorrow?


I will be tomorrow
Quoting 1619. Abacosurf:
Link

Visual. Barbados.
Wind is freshening out of the WSW.

From what I saw its recording SE winds.
The voice coming out of nowhere and saying : I WANT THAT MESS TO MOVE NORTH!
Link I SEE A NICE SPIN!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flas h-vis-short.html link and zoom in you will see a nice spin to invest 97L
1636. LargoFl
Quoting 1613. hydrus:
Right through the straights..Maybe..
this could be dangerous in a week huh..some models have it going north thru DR and Cuba..others take it into the gulf..i do hope that blocking HIGH is still around then.
12z NAM at 51 hours. Looks like it want to develop something in the GOM?
1638. LargoFl
12z NAM at 72 hours
Some very intense convection quickly expanding over 97L; the islands are going to feel some gale force winds and torrential rain even if it does not develop especially since it is moving slowly south of due west. At the moment the strong SW inflow is a credit to why the blob to its east is rapidly increasing. As the easterlies slow down ahead of the LLC and weak steering currents take over air is beginning to piling up as the LLC wraps around the weak easterlies around and force SW inflow to feed convection. As long as it keep this up, upper level winds will quickly fall and a more anticyclonic flow will take over. I believe this will continue through the day and as it crosses the islands tonight it should take off as it stack the cold cloud tops on top of the LLC.



This definitely have potential to become a hurricane once it passes 75W.
1641. 62901IL
Good morning people! SPC has issued a slight risk for my area today. The main threat is damaging winds and large hail, and I cannot wait for some rain to destroy the heat. A Mesoscale Discussion is in effect for Missouri. For Southern IL, though, nothing is happening yet.
On the other hand, just one more day of extreme heat, and then a cooldown for the area.
Have a great day, everyone!
Quoting 1638. LargoFl:
Would probably move near Cuba or Yucatan and then into the US.
1643. SLU
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Yes sir it is.

Since the circulation is elongated, reformations will be common until it finally focusses the energy in one location.

Looks like the 12z center has dissipated with a new one forming near 15n 59w, give or take a few miles.

Tired with the MDG islands...
.
Quoting 1579. hurricane23:


Nothing there hydrus..i really dont know what to make of the season in all honesty. Things can change quickly in the tropics and iam still in favor for an uptick in activtity soon.

we shall see :0(
Oh man, exactly what I did not want to wake up and see, duelling centers.
1647. LargoFl
Models are all over the place til it developes....
Quoting 1628. beell:


And a staid, pedestrian explanation...

Atmopheric Optics/Wes Cowley
Hey, I think that's pretty magical... lol ... nice to feel I captured the sunrise, even if there was no sun to be seen....
Quoting 1633. eddiedollar:
From what I saw its recording SE winds.
that surf break is soup bowls. I have surfed it many times. It's LIVE camera. Don't know if you need to be a member to get the live stream.
The wind is blowing off the tops of the waves offshore.
That means the wind is WSW.
Simple as that. And it's much stronger than it was at daybreak.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
12z NAM at 84 hours
Interacting with Haiti/D.R. - which could be the death of 97L.
Quoting 1637. Sfloridacat5:
12z NAM at 51 hours. Looks like it want to develop something in the GOM?
The gulf area is from the wave thats been persistent in the N/W Careabean
1653. LargoFl
Quoting 1642. allancalderini:
Would probably move near Cuba or Yucatan and then into the US.
yes this time of year especially sept Florida needs to be extra cautious with these storms..watching this one closely...
Quoting 1373. prcane4you:
Beautiful island YES.Lovely people forget it.

Respecfully disagree. Btw, GFS seems to be nailing it in terms of track.
Quoting 1651. Sfloridacat5:
12z NAM at 84 hours
Interacting with Haiti/D.R. - which could be the death of 97L.
MAYBE NOT
Quoting 1656. moonlightcowboy:
The reason for little model support is simply that the circulation is quite broad with no tight, low-level center in which to initialize. Mods are out for now, only obs/reasoning apply, but the system is vigorous, and imo, still a potential threat. It's September, and it's it'll be in the Caribbean, nothing to be taken lightly.
u are 100% right!


yea...watch wind speed and direction.....was west, then southwest and actually started turn southerly ...but the last few updates have tried to bend back from the west/sw...and pressure which has leveled out ...i think a coc is trying to get better defined to the NNE of the island, directly west of Martinique...


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
1660. hydrus
Quoting 1636. LargoFl:
this could be dangerous in a week huh..some models have it going north thru DR and Cuba..others take it into the gulf..i do hope that blocking HIGH is still around then.
A few of the folks here, including me, have said Florida would be in the path of many of the invests, storms , hurricanes this year. I believe that that prediction is going to present itself.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't say the intensity models aren't excited.
A TD in 24 hours !! Models are quite excited, NHC, quite a different story...
1662. JRRP
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1663. GatorWX



This sure is a tricky one!
1664. guygee
Sunday morning (re)reading:

I’ve often said that the evidence for actual periodic (or even pseudoperiodic) behavior in ocean cycles is sketchy at best. What are usually quoted as periods are better referred to as characteristic time scales. Furthermore, it’s all too easy to misinterpret period analysis (usually in the form of spectral analysis) even when estimating the values of, or assessing the existence of, characteristic time scales.

I don’t deny the existence of fluctuations (which I regard as a better description). Nor do I claim that they don’t show characteristic time scales — just that the evidence is often sketchy at best. As far as being actually periodic (in the sense that knowledge of the last few “cycles” enables us to make some useful prediction of the next, or the next few, “cycles”, I believe that they’re not. ...)
in "8,000 years of AMO?"
Barbados has winds of 18mph out of the west.


I think 97L circulation is tightening up
1668. vis0
CREDIT: NASA (Post ed. WV + EnhIR blend WV slightly contrasted to present anemic vapor on the wispy level.)

1]WV IR blend 201308-31;1945_201309-01;1145U

2]WV IR blend 201309-01;1145_201309-01;2145U

As Mon. 201309-02 comes along ml-d settles back (outer areas towards inward-NYc) to settings (explained in this blog)
i know Dr. Masters created a new blog i post by matching file creation to blog date not in being on the latest blog.
1669. GatorWX
Quoting 1665. stormpetrol:
Barbados has winds of 18mph out of the west.


I don't think some people realize 97 is still NE of Barbados. That makes sense though and I tend to agree despite its appearance on sat.