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Rain in Japan threatens to contaminate ground with radioactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:28 PM GMT on March 15, 2011

A low pressure system is located over Japan near Tokyo today, and the counterclockwise flow of air around this low is bringing easterly winds over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which lies to the north-northeast of Tokyo. These easterly winds are blowing radioactivity inland over Japan. As the low tracks northeastward along the coast of Japan today, winds at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will gradually shift to northeast and then northwest, which will move radiation towards Tokyo for several hours, which may be long enough for some radiation to reach the city. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model shows that for a release of radioactivity at 50 meters altitude beginning at 21 GMT on Monday (when an explosion at the #2 reactor was recorded), with repeat releases simulated to occur every 2 hours thereafter, the plumes will stay to the north of Tokyo (Figure 1.) However, a more detailed dispersion model being run by the Austrian weather service shows that the plumes may affect much of the Tokyo area today. Both models predict that by 18 GMT today (2pm EDT), the threat to Tokyo will be over, with more westerly winds blowing the radioactive cloud out to sea.


Figure 1. Forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 50 meters altitude at 21 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity is similated to be released every 2 hours thereafter, going out 24 hours. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

As the low pressure system moves through Japan today, it will bring rain. Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a wide area of rain approaching Tokyo and the Fukushima nuclear plant. Rain is very efficient at removing radioactive particles from the air, and there is the threat of surface and ground water contamination where significant concentrations of radioactive material get rained out. By Wednesday, most of the rain will be gone, and predominately northwesterly winds will build in behind the departing low pressure system. This flow regime will stay in place for the remainder of the week, keeping radioactive emissions from the nuclear plant away from Tokyo, and headed out to sea at low altitudes near the surface.

Ground level releases of radioactivity are typically not able to be transported long distances in significant quantities, since much of the material settles to the ground a few kilometers from the source. If there is a major explosion with hot gases that shoots radioactivity several kilometers high, that would increase the chances for long range transport, since now the ground is farther away, and the particles that start settling out will stay in the air longer before encountering the ground. Additionally, winds are stronger away from ground, due to reduced friction and presence of the jet stream aloft. These stronger winds will transport radioactivity greater distances.


Figure 2. Seven-day forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 8am EDT (12 UTC) today at 50 meters altitude from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Flow of air in the warm and cold conveyor belts of the low pressure system affecting Japan are expected to loft radioactivity to 4 - 5 km altitude, where it will be transported thousands of miles over the coming week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

One case where a ground level release might get lofted to high altitudes is when the source region is located near an approaching low pressure system (extratropical cyclone), as is the case today. On the cold side of the approaching warm front, where the Fukushima nuclear plant is located today, lies a broad band of ascending air called the "cold conveyor belt." This conveyor belt can loft surface air to an altitude of several kilometers in a day, as seen in the trajectory plot in Figure 2. In addition, the "warm sector" of a low pressure system in front of the approaching cold front features a ribbon of ascending air about 100 - 200 km wide called a "warm conveyor belt", which is also capable of lofting surface air several kilometers high in a day. However, there is often considerable precipitation in both of these conveyor belts, which will tend to remove large quantities of radiation before it can be transported long distances. There will be some radiation from Japan lofted to high altitudes today by the low pressure system affecting the region, and if the radiation manages to escape being rained out, it could potentially be transported thousands of miles over the next week. A run of the HYSPLIT model following the path of a radioactive cloud emitted at 12 UTC (8am EDT) this morning shows the radioactivity being lofted 4 - 5 km in altitude and being transported over Alaska over the coming week. After a week of transport, this cloud will be considerably diluted, and I strongly doubt the radioactivity would be harmful to human health if rain or snow were to carry it to the ground over Alaska or Canada, assuming that the radiation levels currently being advertised at ground level in Japan are correct.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Earthquake

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. srada
So, what can be expected of 6 reactors failing? Instead of Japan isolated event, are we looking at a global epidemic?
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It will be some time before they can entomb. The heat has to dissipate. Or so I read somewhere.


It would be the same as Chernobyl, you write of the Helo crews and Workers who to the cementing. I would assume a lot of the 50 crew who are going to be evacuated are a write off also. Its going to take years to cool down.
503. srada
Quoting Orcasystems:
The guy on CNN appears to have his knowledge together... Anderson should have stayed in the studio, he is not a good on scene guy


Well if you were just told in your ear that all heck is about to break loose, you might not look all together eithier..LOL..bless his heart..he probably on his blackberry during commercials booking a ticket back to America..
Hell of alot of smoke pouring out of the building. Blowing inland staying close to the ground. NOT GOOD.
Quoting srada:
So, what can be expected of 6 reactors failing? Instead of Japan isolated event, are we looking at a global epidemic?


No.
"Life is like a game of Chess, changing with each move." ~ Chinese proverb
6 reactors about to be compromised, no existing models exist on impact of this scnerio. If this route comes to play, news crews will be evacd out
I have not panicked so far... so I'd say NO to global epidemic. : )
Quoting srada:
So, what can be expected of 6 reactors failing? Instead of Japan isolated event, are we looking at a global epidemic?
Quoting srada:
So, what can be expected of 6 reactors failing? Instead of Japan isolated event, are we looking at a global epidemic?


No mater what happens in Japan.. this is a little drip into the ocean compared to dropping a 2 - 10 MT weapon onto a test range or pacific island. The US has done that many many times.

Mellow out people.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No.


That's a pretty broad statement!
Kyodo: Support from U.S. military forces may be needed to help cool reactors.
Sneauxing on AC Cooper now.

Sheesh
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: Support from U.S. military forces may be needed to help cool reactors.
It's about time they swallow their pride.
Quoting Patrap:
This is a bad thing,,always has been.

Now it is getting worse and will continue to exponentially.

I Hope someone can give us some insight on the matters developing tonight


they got to get a bunch of super tankers together load em up with the ingredients for a rich concrete mix then they pump it ashore to a mixing station then pump it to 10 pumptrucks with an extended boom over the site five trucks per side and pump that stuff over it till nothing is gettin out and let it melt straight to hell
Quoting Grothar:


That's a pretty broad statement!


Obviously, I am just going by the media reports. I am no expert on this. I just can’t see this becoming a “Global” event.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i just typed it

here is another

don't question what you get
take what you are given


That's pretty much sums up my employment contract every year.
#
0252: Two crew members on an Australian search and rescue helicopter showed low levels of radiation contamination after they were forced to make an emergency landing in Fukushima on Wednesday, AFP news agency reports. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard was quoted as saying the radiation was detected on their boots. They landed about 12 miles (20km) outside the exclusion zone surrounding the plant.
Very good point ORCA
Quoting Chicklit:


That's pretty much sums up my employment contract every year.


ROFLMAO.. I hurt myself :)
Hate to see the SNOW falling --- many of the people in Japan are w/o power and shelter.
The SNOW does not help a situation that is already bad. : (
3/14/2011 By Gunnery Sgt. Leo A. Salinas

Marine Corps Bases Japan

Marines from III Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) disembark from a CH-46E Sea Knight helicopter here March 14 during Operation Tomodachi. Personnel with III MEF (Fwd) established a humanitarian assistance center here to assist the Government of Japan-led relief efforts following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck mainland Japan March 11.




Marine Corps Bases Japan

Lance Cpl. Brandon McCormick, left, and Sgt. Tony Hinds set up a satellite system here March 14 as part of Operation Tomodachi. Personnel with III Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) established a humanitarian assistance center here to assist Government of Japan-led relief efforts following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck mainland Japan March 11.

ROFL ----
Guess that is why I am a Self Employeed Person! LOL

Good Answer Chicklit, Good Answer!
Quoting Chicklit:


That's pretty much sums up my employment contract every year.
"The core group of 50 are not leaving," Cooper says.
Good evening everyone.

The situation looks to be quite dire at the nuclear reactors. CNN is just now confirming that ALL 50 workers have been evacuated because of high radiation levels at the facility. Confirmation came from the government of Japan.

There is an expert that CNN has been interviewing and he is extremely concerned that all workers have left. He hopes that they are just exchanging the workers for other workers, but does not think that this is what is happening. He said, IF all these workers have left and no one else is replacing them then we have just moved one step closer to another Cherbonyl. He is VERY concerned. Three reactors  not being cooled is dire enough. His major concern is the spent fuel rods in 4, 5 and 6 because these rods are NOT in containment vessels.

I will give you any updates that I get. KEEP your fingers crossed!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
ROFL ----
Guess that is why I am a Self Employeed Person! LOL

Good Answer Chicklit, Good Answer!


Which leaves a question. When you are sick, do you call yourself up and say you are not coming in?
526. srada
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Obviously, I am just going by the media reports. I am no expert on this. I just can’t see this becoming a “Global” event.


Again, I am only repeating CNN but the nuclear expert just stated that if this is true about the workers abandoning the plant, then instead of this being a level 5 and three mile island, then we would be looking at level 7 which is chernoboyl which was a global event..again, Im no expert, only repeating the current media report from CNN..
No, I prefer a paper trail - I email myself! LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Which leaves a question. When you are sick, do you call yourself up and say you are not coming in?


Rain map.
Now would be a good time to explain the difference between a Nuclear reactor meltdown Vs Atmospheric Testing or the Fission Process via Detonation against a Meltdown scenario.

But I'll digress to the experts...or Google.

Carl,,your Up.

Quoting Beachfoxx:
No, I prefer a paper trail - I email myself! LOL


Too funny!!! LOL
It still should be a fairly local event.
Quoting Grothar:


Which leaves a question. When you are sick, do you call yourself up and say you are not coming in?


Funny how I don't get sick.
But my blood pressure has suddenly gone into meltdown.

Maybe i'm having an empathic reaction.
seriously, i jump up on the examining couch today and say to the cardiologist: look at me! i don't look sick! i'm not sick!
He laughed and said, 'that's what every single person who comes in here says.'

I don't get it.
Quoting srada:


Again, I am only repeating CNN but the nuclear expert just stated that if this is true about the workers abandoning the plant, then instead of this being a level 5 and three mile island, then we would be looking at level 7 which is chernoboyl which was a global event..again, Im no expert, only repeating the current media report from CNN..


Chernobyl was not a global event.
The situation does appear to be getting worse. It was just reported that it it possible the containment around #2 reactor, which they know was damaged, may not hold at all. With the constant fires at the others, this really does not look good. While this may not be a global event, it could affect a much larger area. This does not look good. We should keep a very close watch on this. Not being funny, but no reason to panic. That never solves anything.
Cesium 137




Health risk of radioactive caesium
Actinides Half-life Fission products

Caesium-137 is water-soluble and chemically toxic in small amounts. The biological behavior of caesium-137 is similar to that of potassium and rubidium. After entering the body, caesium gets more or less uniformly distributed through the body, with higher concentration in muscle tissues and lower in bones. The biological half-life of caesium is rather short at about 70 days. Experiments with dogs showed that a single dose of 3800 μCi/kg (approx. 44 μg/kg of caesium-137) is lethal within three weeks.

Accidental ingestion of caesium-137 can be treated with the chemical Prussian blue, which binds to it chemically and then speeds its expulsion from the body.

The improper handling of caesium-137 gamma ray sources can lead to release of this radio-isotope and radiation injuries. Perhaps the best-known case is the Goiânia accident, in which an improperly-disposed-of radiation therapy system from an abandoned clinic in the city of Goiânia, Brazil, was scavenged from a junkyard, and the glowing caesium salt sold to curious, uneducated buyers. This led to multiple serious injuries from radiation exposure.

Caesium gamma-ray sources that have been encased in metallic housings can be mixed-in with scrap metal on its way to smelters, resulting in production of steel contaminated with radioactivity.

One notable example was the Acerinox accident of 1998, when the Spanish recycling company Acerinox accidentally melted down a mass of radioactive caesium-137 that came from a gamma-ray generator.

In 2009, a Chinese cement company in China (the Shaanxi Province) was demolishing an old, unused cement plant and it did not follow the standards for handling radioactive materials. This caused some caesium-137 from a measuring instrument to be melted down along with eight truckloads scrap metal on its way to a steel mill. Hence, the radioactive caesium got melted down into the steel
May you live in interesting times.
Chinese curse.
There is a good chance there will be an steam explosion at reactor two and the exposure of the core to air tonight.

There is still crew there.


When two just won't do.
Hmmmm --- I wonder what my Radiation Level is???

I've had multiple Xrays, MRI's and CTscans in the past 12 months?

Do I glow yet?????


Y'all take a Chill Pill or Iodine Pill if that will make you feel better... I'm going to "meltdown" for the night and catch some zzzzzzzz's.
LOL -
Got Iodine???
Quoting Orcasystems:


When two just won't do.
That's what I heard, John.

Quoting Chicklit:
"The core group of 50 are not leaving," Cooper says.

Chiclet, are you able to confirm this? CNN, in all of its brilliance, just  started rebroadcasting the segment that it had just ran. NOT LIVE COVERAGE now. That is kinda like someone calling you on the phone to say there is a bomb about to explode and then hangs up on you. Where? When? How big? Where is my hard hat? Where are my track shoes?

I will try to find a live coverage again from another source.

Quoting Chicklit:


Funny how I don't get sick.
But my blood pressure has suddenly gone into meltdown.

Maybe i'm having an empathic reaction.
seriously, i jump up on the examining couch today and say to the cardiologist: look at me! i don't look sick! i'm not sick!
He laughed and said, 'that's what every single person who comes in here says.'

I don't get it.


Not me, I limp and moan the whole time I am there. And that's only to pay a bill. Don't fret about something over which you have no control. Not good for your health. There is a lot of positive things we can do to help. I would always rather be on the giving end than the receiving end.
511 Neapolitan "Kyodo: Support from U.S. military forces may be needed to help cool reactors."

A politician is a fellow who will lay down your life for his country. -- Texas Guinan
Cooper is questioning whether the 50 workers have suspended operations... trying to find conformation.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good point, Rookie. Can't say.
But I think everyone should know the names of those people who stayed behind and tried.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



BBC: 0320: Staff have now been evacuated from Fukushima because of a spike in radiation levels, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told a news conference.
Quoting Chicklit:
That's what I heard, John.


I am trying to find out what is up now. All the cooling pools are at risk I suspect but of course 4 is damaged and probably leaking off water as fast as they add it. .
I hate to say it, but I think whatever crew tries to do is wasting their time. Everything they've done has not worked. This beast wants out
Quoting Orcasystems:


No mater what happens in Japan.. this is a little drip into the ocean compared to dropping a 2 - 10 MT weapon onto a test range or pacific island. The US has done that many many times.

Mellow out people.
Quoting Neapolitan:

BBC: 0320: Staff have now been evacuated from Fukushima because of a spike in radiation levels, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told a news conference.


Is that all staff? I just read a few things saying the total evacuation wasn't true. Lets figure it out and pull it together.
Link

The nuclear powers have conducted at least 2,000 nuclear test explosions (numbers are approximated, as some test results have been disputed):
Over 2,000 nuclear explosions have been conducted, in over a dozen different sites around the world.
"Baker Shot", part of Operation Crossroads, a nuclear test by the United States at Bikini Atoll in 1946

* United States United States: 1,054 tests by official count (involving at least 1,151 devices, 331 atmospheric tests), most at Nevada Test Site and the Pacific Proving Grounds in the Marshall Islands, with 10 other tests taking place at various locations in the United States, including Amchitka Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, and New Mexico (see Nuclear weapons and the United States for details).[3]
* Soviet Union Soviet Union: 715 tests (involving 969 devices) by official count,[4] most at Semipalatinsk Test Site and Novaya Zemlya, and a few more at various sites in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine.
* France France: 210 tests by official count (50 atmospheric, 160 underground[5]), 4 atomic atmospheric tests at C.E.S.M. near Reggane, 13 atomic underground tests at C.E.M.O. near In Ekker in the then-French Algerian Sahara, and nuclear atmospheric tests at Fangataufa and nuclear undersea tests Moruroa in French Polynesia. Additional atomic and chemical warfare tests took place in the secret base B2-Namous, near Ben Wenif, other tests involving rockets and missiles at C.I.E.E.S, near Hammaguir, both in the Sahara.
* United Kingdom United Kingdom: 45 tests (21 in Australian territory, including 9 in mainland South Australia at Maralinga and Emu Field, some at Christmas Island in the Pacific Ocean, plus many others in the United States as part of joint test series)[6]
* People's Republic of China China: 45 tests (23 atmospheric and 22 underground, at Lop Nur Nuclear Weapons Test Base, in Malan, Xinjiang)[7][8]
* India India: 6 underground tests (including the first one in 1974), at Pokhran[citation needed].
* Pakistan Pakistan: 6 underground tests, at Ras Koh Hills, Chagai District and Kharan Desert, Kharan District in Balochistan Province[citation needed].

* North Korea North Korea: two tests at Hwadae-ri[citation needed].

Additionally, there may have been at least three alleged but unacknowledged nuclear explosions (see list of alleged nuclear tests). Of these, the only one taken seriously as a possible nuclear test is the Vela Incident, a possible detection of a nuclear explosion in the Indian Ocean in 1979.

From the first nuclear test in 1945 until tests by Pakistan in 1998, there was never a period of more than 22 months with no nuclear testing. June 1998 to October 2006 was the longest period since 1945 with no acknowledged nuclear tests.
554. srada
Quoting JohnTucker:


Is that all staff? I just read a few things saying the total evacuation wasn't true. They cant give up on those pools.

Ok we had our foolish time in here lets hold it together for a bit.


as far as MSNBC..they said ALL workers..thats two major news outlet reporting it

Link

Quoting Chicklit:
Good point, Rookie. Can't say.
But I think everyone should know the names of those people who stayed behind and tried.
+ 1,000,000
New Earthquake Warning in the Plant areas
that is really funny, aspectre.

yeah, grothar. this feels weird.
totally out of my control.
i have no idea why it's happening either but can feel it in my head.

it's just something that happened.
the doc said, 'what do you do for a living?'
i said "i manage people and programs.'
an IT person, he said.
and that seemed to mean something.
They Bugged out the Plant 2 Hours ago JT
Quoting Patrap:
They Bugged out the Plant 2 Hours ago JT

really. then the battle was lost.

Not a world event?
Quoting twincomanche:
It still should be a fairly local event.


To what degree of certainty do you speak? Granted, "should" implies less certainty than "will" but quite a bit more than "maybe."
NHK reports 11,000 still Missing,,over 3000 remains recovered
All the techie's are saying this will not blow out and up in the air like Chernobyl; rather it will sink into the ground, affecting ground water, plants rather than scatter.
As Japan scrambles to cope with a nuclear reactor damaged in the quake, Josh Dzieza talks to Ron Ballinger, a nuclear expert at MIT about how the plants work, worst-case scenarios, and more.




What happens if all the water boils off?

Hypothetically, if the water all boils and evaporates, then the fuel will stay molten and eventually melt through the steel vessel. But that's already beyond a hypothetical worst-case scenario for me. The steel vessel is four inches thick, and they could always put seawater around the vessel, and that would keep it cool, so it can't melt. If you put a frying pan in water, you could put a blowtorch on the other side and it won't make any difference. Then you have the other containment vessel, with a concrete faceplate underneath that's between four and 10 feet thick. But melting through that is hypothetical beyond normal reasoning.

Radiation spiked at 1,015 microsievert per hour before the explosion. Is that dangerous?

No, that's about 100 milirem. It's high, but you get about 35 milirems on a trans-Atlantic flight. And if you live in Denver, you get about 50 milirems per year.

What is the dangerous level, and what happens when that level is reached?

The LD50—that is to say, the point when 50 percent of the people exposed will meet Jesus—is in the order of 250 rem, or maybe 400. A big number. Keep in mind, what they've been exposed to is 0.1 rem, and about 50 percent fatality is on the order of 400 rem. What would happen with that kind of exposure is that they would get sick. Radiation damage destroys the immune system. Most people who die of radiation sickness die of pneumonia or a cold, they die of some disease which they have but their immune system can't fight off.
John Tucker,
You might want to look back at my post right after the news conference. Maybe 9:30 CDT or so. I quoted exactly what the English translator said. Secretary Edano spoke in Japanese.
Quoting Chicklit:

really. then the battle was lost.
for a while now
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yukio Edano said the workers at the plant suspended their operations and were evacuated.



567 I left because of the trolls. there were a few denials then just recently the majors started carrying the story.




Looks like the low is just leaving shore.
According to my local news station, ALL 3 reactors are going into melt down! ALL employees have been evacuated! This is what I just heard. This is NOT a joke!
How many times do you think Anderson is going to ask the same question of his expert?
11,000 still missing... I wonder how many folks aren't on that list because the friends&family who would have missed them were also victims.
Person Finder: 2011 Japan Earthquake
What is your situation?


Currently tracking about 201,200 records.

They've had to evacuate all workers:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307 698:

I'm surprised he isn't on an airplane getting the heck outta of there......

Quoting Orcasystems:
How many times do you think Anderson is going to ask the same question of his expert?
Out for the night. It is what it is and sitting here hitting the f5 key isn't going to change anything. Later.
MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42084187/ns/world_new s-asiapacific/?gt1=43001
Subtropical Storm “Ariani” off the coast of Brazil

March 15th, 2011
Fox News

http://www.foxnews.com/
580. srada
Good Night everyone..I hope and pray that I dont wake up to even more horrible news tomorrow..GOD bless Japan!!
Fresh blaze at reactor No 4

While public broadcaster NHK said flames were no longer visible at the building housing the No.4 reactor of the plant, Japanese TV pictures showed smoke rising from the facility at mid-morning (1000 local, 0100 GMT).


Winds over the plant will blow from the north along the Pacific coast early on Wednesday and then from the northwest toward the ocean during the day, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.


So that started 2 hrs ago and is the third fire. That is probably the reason for the evacuation.

577 However, The New York Times reported that a small group of workers remained at the plant, contrary to what an English translation of the cabinet secretary's remarks had implied.
567 I left because of the trolls. there were a few denials then just recently the majors started carrying the story.

I understand.
:)

Far as I'm concerned, "the majors" is the horse's mouth. Add: In this case, Mr. Enago.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
I'm surprised he isn't on an airplane getting the heck outta of there......



He showed a Rad. measuring device in his pocket... Sure he's monitoring on breaks, the wind and that snow falling...
Comcast

http://www.comcast.net/

If Comcast is reporting this, then it must be true?

NOT good news. What else will Japan have to endure?
The IAEA link is currently unavailable....? My link anyway....


Late breaking 2 hour behind the news bloggers maybe?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Perhaps this will help the push toward serious reductions in nuclear weapons. If so, some good will have come of this. The plutonium-239 from reactor 3 (plumes of steam) is extremely dangerous and its half-life is 24,100 years. It will be several thousand years before it is down to 1%, and that stuff is scary even at trace levels. It appears that the situation is leaving extremely serious and heading into grave.
Link back up

Link
Quoting twincomanche:
Out for the night. It is what it is and sitting here hitting the f5 key isn't going to change anything. Later.


So true. Goodnight and thanks for your input.
I still don't think people are fully grasping the situation at hand. Reactors 4, 5 and 6 all have a bunch of spent rods (covered in flammable material which is hard to put out); and are slowly heating up their containment. So basically they are battling with 6 reactors at once, and unless they have 6 groups of people constantly filling these with water they will be causing wide-spread radiation contamination. If the news about removing all workers is true, then it is only a matter of time. I'm talking about Chernobyl multiplied by 2-5 fold.
Can you believe this??

Venezuela suspends nuclear energy program

VENEZUELA'S President Hugo Chavez said he is suspending his country's fledgling nuclear energy program in the wake of the disaster affecting power plants hit in Japan by a massive earthquake and tsunami.

"I have directed (Energy) Minister (Rafael) Ramirez to freeze the plans we have been advancing, for preliminary studies of a peaceful Venezuelan nuclear program," the president said.

"What has happened in the last hours is extremely risky and dangerous for the whole world, because despite the advanced technology that Japan has, just look at what has been happening with some nuclear reactors.

"The magnitude of the nuclear problem in Japan is not known."

Venezuela in 2010 signed an agreement with Russia to begin to build the first nuclear power plant in the South American country, an agreement which aroused the suspicion of the United States.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/venezuela-sus pends-nuclear-energy-program/story-e6frfku0-122602 2503710#ixzz1GjOaUhiN
((Japan))

Quoting Patrap:
Late breaking 2 hour behind the news bloggers maybe?

I agree. I find it strange that a live news team did not get the information until 2 hours(?) later.

The Japan Times reports that radiation reached around 20 times normal levels in the capital Tuesday morning, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government said, while offering the assurance this reading posed no immediate risk to human health and that the public should remain calm.


2.21pm Governor says radiation levels in Tokyo 20 times normal, The Japan Times reports.

2.08pm The level of radiation at the plant surged to 1000 millisieverts today before coming down to 800-600 millisieverts. Still, that was far more than the average.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GjQH4BH u
Just because I wasnt here doesn't mean I wasn't following it. Perhaps especially. The technical side of the discussion was less than optimal and like I said the NYT is reporting a skeleton crew has remained.

Also here is the link on the core leak:

Japan nuclear crisis intensified again Wednesday, with authorities at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi plant in northeastern Japan announcing that a containment vessel surrounding another reactor may have ruptured and appeared to be releasing radioactive steam. That would be the second vessel to be compromised in two days.
"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain."

-Frank Herbert
#
0404: More details on that new quake. No tsunami warning was immediately issued, but the Japan Meteorological Agency said a change in sea levels was possible, the AFP reports.
Quoting Orcasystems:
#
0404: More details on that new quake. No tsunami warning was immediately issued, but the Japan Meteorological Agency said a change in sea levels was possible, the AFP reports.


#
0401: An earthquake hits eastern Japan, with the force strong enough to sway buildings in Tokyo.
599 Oui!! the litany! Well there is nothing for us to be afraid of. It would be nice to know the exact source of the recent surge in radioactivity. A containment breach (steam too) is probably better than a cooling pond fire.

So 2 is open - 3 is open - and ponds 4,5,6 are in jeopardy. Pond 4 may be burning. Skeleton crew, if any at all on site, very likely none.

That is what I think the current assessment is. Ill try to get the amounts of fuel involved.
Any insight into whether each reactor has stored spent fuel rods or just 4, 5, and 6? According to wiki "About one-fourth to one-third of the total fuel load of a reactor is removed from the core every 12 to 18 months and replaced with fresh fuel.", which means that there is possibly 10+ times the amount of active rods being stored at these facilities.
603. Agreed. I certainly wasn't suggesting "all is well" and that we shouldn't be vigilant and informed (I'm here hitting F5 like everyone else). Folks were posting quotes earlier and I thought that one seemed apropos.
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 03:52:05 UTC
Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 12:52:05 PM at epicenter

Location 35.795°N, 140.804°E
Depth 25 km (15.5 miles) set by location program
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 70 km (43 miles) SSE (156°) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
96 km (60 miles) E (81°) from TOKYO, Japan
142 km (88 miles) S (184°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.6 km (8.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
Quoting MrMixon:
"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain."

-Frank Herbert


Quoting MrMixon:
603. Agreed. I certainly wasn't suggesting "all is well" and that we shouldn't be vigilant and informed (I'm here hitting F5 like everyone else). Folks were posting quotes earlier and I thought that one seemed apropos.
What's F5 do, I'm on a phone now......?
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
What's F5 do, I'm on a phone now......?


Refresh
Good for Venezuela. There is too many civilizations out there that didn't make it to think nothing bad will happen with our nuclear plants, weapons & waste during or after a catastrophe. How do you protect it from a sink hole or a meteor, a huge wave?



Washington (CNN) -- U.S. government experts trying to construct a model of radiation plumes emanating from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi power plant are being hampered by a "paucity of good data," a senior administration official told CNN.

"We have done some (computer) modeling," the official said, noting the government "got a little bit of data" when helicopters from the USS Ronald Reagan encountered low levels of radiation during flights in the area. But information has been scant, the official said, adding, "Garbage in, garbage out."

The official spoke on background because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

The water levels were also falling at the FukushimaDaiichi 5th reactor because of failure of its diesel backup generator.
TEPCO was claiming that its workers were starting to re-stabilize the situation by using the diesel generator for reactor No. 6 to pump water to cool both reactors... before the evacuation.
Complete Update

Earthquake graphics only show Mag 5+
Including the new Mag 6 by Tokyo





Hey Grothar ! I am so confused, dont know what or who to believe.....so "over my head" ya know....
DigitalGlobe.com - Satellite Photos of Fukushima Plant & PDFs




Fukushima Dai-ichi

Nuclear Facility Damage Analysis
Images Collected: March 12, 13, 14, 2011

> Download (PDF)
Japan Earthquake-Tsunami Analysis
Japan

Damage Analysis
Images Collected: March 12, 2011

> Download (PDF)

More....

Link

Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hey Grothar ! I am so confused, dont know what or who to believe.....so "over my head" ya know....

If you want to know anything about confusion, I am your man. LOL

Quoting Skyepony:
Good for Venezuela. There is too many civilizations out there that didn't make it to think nothing bad will happen with our nuclear plants, weapons & waste during or after a catastrophe. How do you protect it from a sink hole or a meteor, a huge wave?



Washington (CNN) -- U.S. government experts trying to construct a model of radiation plumes emanating from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi power plant are being hampered by a "paucity of good data," a senior administration official told CNN.

"We have done some (computer) modeling," the official said, noting the government "got a little bit of data" when helicopters from the USS Ronald Reagan encountered low levels of radiation during flights in the area. But information has been scant, the official said, adding, "Garbage in, garbage out."

The official spoke on background because he was not authorized to speak publicly.


In Florida we have the Crystal River nuclear plant right on the gulf coast north if Tampa. It's in a surge zone up to 25 feet...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:




Thanks Rookie, at least I'm not alone...lol..
DigitalGlobe photos in Flickr

Link
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hey Grothar ! I am so confused, dont know what or who to believe.....so "over my head" ya know....


You think your're confused. Even the experts don't know what is really going on. Just don't worry. It is above most of our heads. It is a very serious situation, but just keep a good perspective and do not fret none over this. I figured I would give you a good Southern expression to make you feel better.
Quoting Skyepony:
Good for Venezuela. There is too many civilizations out there that didn't make it to think nothing bad will happen with our nuclear plants, weapons & waste during or after a catastrophe. How do you protect it from a sink hole or a meteor, a huge wave?



Washington (CNN) -- U.S. government experts trying to construct a model of radiation plumes emanating from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi power plant are being hampered by a "paucity of good data," a senior administration official told CNN.

"We have done some (computer) modeling," the official said, noting the government "got a little bit of data" when helicopters from the USS Ronald Reagan encountered low levels of radiation during flights in the area. But information has been scant, the official said, adding, "Garbage in, garbage out."

The official spoke on background because he was not authorized to speak publicly.



GIGO BP GOM

Acronyms kill you every time.
Sequence of photos in PDF (DigitalGlobe.com)

Link
Is GeoffWPB still on?
Quoting Grothar:


You think your're confused. Even the experts don't know what is really going on. Just don't worry. It is above most of our heads. It is a very serious situation, but just keep a good perspective and do not fret none over this. I figured I would give you a good Southern expression to make you feel better.


"Now don't frett about it" was an expression my mama used often.....but she was a "fretter" too. Thank you for that :)
16/03/2011 12:06:00 AM

Eric Talmadge,Shino Yuasa, The Associated Press
FUKUSHIMA, Japan - Japan suspended operations to keep its stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after surging radiation made it too dangerous to stay.


Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the workers dousing the reactors in a frantic effort to cool them needed to withdraw.

"The workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said. "Because of the radiation risk we are on standby," he said.

The nuclear crisis has triggered international alarm and partly overshadowed the human tragedy caused by Friday's earthquake and tsunami, which pulverized Japan's northeastern coastline, killing an estimated 10,000 people and severely damaging the nuclear plant.

Since then authorities have tried frantically to avert an environmental catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex in northeastern Japan, 170 miles (270 kilometres) north Tokyo.

Edano said the government expects to ask the U.S. military for help. He did not elaborate. He said the government is still considering whether and how to take up the various offers of help from other countries.

The surge in radiation was apparently the result of a Tuesday explosion in the complex's Unit 4 reactor, according to officials with Japan's nuclear safety agency. That blast is thought to have damaged the reactor's suppression chamber, a water-filled pipe outside the nuclear core that is part of the emergency cooling system.

Officials had originally planned use helicopters and fire trucks to spray water in a desperate effort to prevent further radiation leaks and to cool down the reactors.

"It's not so simple that everything will be resolved by pouring in water. We are trying to avoid creating other problems," Edano said.

"We are actually supplying water from the ground, but supplying water from above involves pumping lots of water and that involves risk. We also have to consider the safety of the helicopters above," he said.

A U.S. nuclear expert said he feared the worst.

"It's more of a surrender," said David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who now heads the nuclear safety program for the Union of Concerned Scientists, an activist group. "It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse."

"It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel," Lochbaum said.

The government has ordered some 140,000 people in the vicinity to stay indoors. A little radiation was also detected in Tokyo, 150 miles (240 kilometres) to the south, triggering panic buying of food and water.

There are six reactors at the plant, and the three that were operating at the time have been rocked by explosions. The one still on fire was offline at the time of the magnitude 9.0 quake, Japan's most powerful on record.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency estimated that 70 per cent of the rods have been damaged at the No. 1 reactor.

Japan's national news agency, Kyodo, said that 33 per cent of the fuel rods at the No. 2 reactor were damaged and that the cores of both reactors were believed to have partially melted.

"We don't know the nature of the damage," said Minoru Ohgoda, spokesman for the country's nuclear safety agency. "It could be either melting, or there might be some holes in them."

Meanwhile, the outer housing of the containment vessel at the No. 4 unit erupted in flames early Wednesday, said Hajimi Motujuku, a spokesman for the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Japan's nuclear safety agency said fire and smoke could no longer be seen at Unit 4, but that it was unable to confirm that the blaze had been put out.

___

Yuasa reported from Tokyo. Associated Press writers Elaine Kurtenbach in Tokyo and David Stringer in Ofunato contributed to this report

Japanese vehicles pass through the ruins of the levelled city of Minamisanriku, northeastern Japan / AP
615. Great stuff from DigitalGlobe, Sunlinepr. Thanks.

This is not what you want to see when you view a nuclear power plant from above:



FULL RES
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


"Now don't frett about it" was an expression my mama used often.....but she was a "fretter" too. Thank you for that :)


You mean I spelled "frett" wrong. This could be a first.
Its not that confusing - all three operational reactors at the time of the quake are in some degree of meltdown and their containment is likely compromised.

Reactor 3 is venting something now.

Three cooling ponds are having problems with one cracked for sure by the quake. There have been a few fires at 4.

Unless emergency efforts are/were successful a large amount of radiation could potentially be released. So far no large releases have gotten far from the plant. At the plant the situation now is critical and radiation is very unsafe.

Now that emergency efforts have necessary ceased at the plant we are more likely to see some things never before seen in reference to nuclear energy and disasters.
#
0433: France is now urging its nationals in Tokyo to leave Japan or head to the south of the country, Reuters reports. It says Paris has asked the Air France carrier to provide planes for the evacuation.


From

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307 698

Keeper.

You still have some of them fans left or did they burn them out when you had them pointed south? West, please. FULL THROTTLE!
Quoting Grothar:


You mean I spelled "frett" wrong. This could be a first.


Well, we true southerners have our own vocab, ya know.......

Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well, we true southerners have our own vocab, ya know.......

Gotcha covered there too, Eyes.

Quoting Grothar:


You mean I spelled "frett" wrong. This could be a first.


I want a fretter also :)
Make mine apple

Quoting Orcasystems:


I want a fretter also :)
Make mine apple



LOLOL... I can relate.....
#4 doesn't really look like a building anymore
From the following

http://in.reuters.com/

#
Japan nuclear agency: Evacuation order of plant workers lifted at 0230 GMT after radiation falls
by Reuters_david.lalmalsawma at 3/16/2011 3:40:28 AM11:40 PM yesterday


#
Developments today:
* Workers ordered to leave the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant were allowed back in after radiation levels fell
by Reuters_TonyTharakan at 3/16/2011 4:01:41 AM12:01 AM


From the comments section but I'm assuming these are reporters.

To confirm: Anyone else hear that the workers have been allowed back in?


"Six of the spent fuel rod pools are (or were) located at the top of six reactor buildings. One “common pool” is at ground level in a separate building. Each “reactor top” pool holds up to 3450 fuel rod assemblies. The common pool holds up to 6291 fuel rod assemblies. [The common pool has windows on one wall which were almost certainly destroyed by the tsunami.] Each assembly holds sixty-three fuel rods. This means the Fukushima Daiichi plant may contain over 600,000 spent fuel rods. The fuel rods once stored atop reactor 3 may no longer be there: one of the several explosions at the Fukushima reactors may have damaged that pool."

Link
I heard the radiation had spiked and was dropping. Other than that no.

Each reactor top pool holds up to 3450 fuel rod assemblies. The common pool holds up to 6291 fuel rod assemblies.

assemblies


I wonder how full it was.
If 5 and 6 are in danger; that means to me, nobody there to mind the business.. I'm wondering if they had to drag those poor heros out of there.. Just unreal what this has turned into.
And btw, thanks to all who put our former, uhh, whatever he was.. now known as FloridaHeat... on ignore. I've had him on ignore for two days.. No since jerking everyone's chains at a time like this.
And thanks, everyone for posting the news during the day. At work, I can read it, but can't post, and can't view any flash, or Utube type things.

Quoting JohnTucker:
It would be nice if something that turned into a huge contamination event wasn't recorded here for history as ignoramus joke time perhaps.

Guilty, and agreed. Brought on by a nervous frustration of a lack of any updates of the situation in Japan. When the tension becomes too much to contain, comic relief helps to ease the tension. I will refrain.

I know that this will be a severe local event. I know that this is not good news no matter where the local event is. How serious do you think this could become beyond that? We have been hearing this will not be a wide spread event for several days now. What are the chances, depending on wind conditions, that this will be a national contamination event for Japan? Japan has suffered the limits any nation should ever have to endure already. Do you think the worse is yet to come for Japan? I don't even like to think about that.

Reuters has posted it officially now that the workers were allowed back in:

Workers briefly abandon Japan plant after radiation surge
Both WU and Accuweather are reporting most recent winds at Tokyo from the NNW at, get this, 33 mph (54 kph). Anyone have other readings? These values might be an incorrect reading from the same sensor ... they both read 33.
"Japan's worsening nuclear crisis will now be compared to the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986."

Link
Ii honestly dont know and dont want to speculate. After Chernobyl by 2005 there were around 6000 cases of thyroid cancer in children as a result.

I dont want to think about the potential suffering that could result from this. To people not even born yet.

The wind appears to be blowing offshore now. There is a lot of the steam/smoke present.

3.10pm A strong 6.0 magnitude earthquake has struck in the Pacific just off Chiba prefecture, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, with the force strong enough to sway buildings in Tokyo. No tsunami warning was immediately issued but the agency warned of a possible change in sea levels.

3.05pm A US nuclear expert said he feared the worst after workers were told to evacuate from the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant. David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who heads the nuclear safety program for activist group the Union of Concerned Scientists said:

It's more of a surrender. It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse. It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel.


2.58pm Japan's nearest neighbours - Russia, the Korean peninsula and China - say they don't foresee any immediate effects of radiation from Japan's nuclear crisis. Authorities in Singapore said no abnormal changes in radiation levels have been detected, after fake text messages reportedly claimed acid rain could reach Singapore, more than 5000km southwest of Japan.

2.52pm Hong Kong has widened its top-level black travel alert to three more Japanese prefectures.

2.43pm South Korea plans to send an emergency shipment of cooling material to Japan to help control its quake-damaged nuclear reactors. Tokyo has asked for 52 tonnes of boron, a key material used for regulating nuclear chain reactions, as it is running short of the metalloid to cool the overheated Fukushima reactors, Seoul said. "We've sent boron samples. Now, we are scraping up all we got," a South Korean official said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GjkwKyR 8

Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Both WU and Accuweather are reporting most recent winds at Tokyo from the NNW at, get this, 33 mph (54 kph). Anyone have other readings? These values might be an incorrect reading from the same sensor ... they both read 33.


Nearby airports are showing 25+ mph out of the N or NNW.
Quoting TxKeef:
"Japan's worsening nuclear crisis will now be compared to the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986."

Link


Thanks; For Reference here, it reads:

Extremely serious levels of radiation have escaped. Dangerously high doses of radiation have been detected in or near the compounds of the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.

Japan's worsening nuclear crisis will now be compared to the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986.

The Fukushima plant has six reactors. Of them, the No. 2 reactor has begun to release radioactive substances as the suppression pool connected to the reactor containment vessel was apparently damaged.

The No. 1 and No. 3 reactors are also in a perilous situation with their nuclear fuel rods exposed out of cooling water.
No. 4 reactor poses more danger than other reactors
2011/03/16

An explosion and fire at the pool containing spent fuel rods at the No. 4 reactor of the quake-stricken Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant Tuesday could prove more serious than explosions at two other reactors.

The fire at the pool could potentially pave the way for another explosion that could destroy the building that houses the reactor and release a large amount of highly radioactive materials into the atmosphere.

At the No. 4 reactor, the pool that contains spent fuel rods is located outside the nuclear pressure vessel and the containment vessel.

The only thing that separates the pool from the outside world is the concrete building that houses the reactor.

The spent fuel rods used at the reactor were stored in the pool, which sits next to the reactor.

Link
Dr. Masters was quoted in an ABC news article

"By the time the radiation reached Hawaii or the West Coast, much of the radiation capable of causing harm to people would have left the atmosphere or turned into precipitation and have been "rained out," according to a blog written by Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology for WeatherUnderground.com."



Link
Quoting TxKeef:
Dr. Masters was quoted in an ABC news article

"By the time the radiation reached Hawaii or the West Coast, much of the radiation capable of causing harm to people would have left the atmosphere or turned into precipitation and have been "rained out," according to a blog written by Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology for WeatherUnderground.com."



Link


That is compatible with the reaction of neighbor countries, like Russia and China but not from Singapore, although most of the time the wind blows to the Pacific...

2.58pm Japan's nearest neighbours - Russia, the Korean peninsula and China - say they don't foresee any immediate effects of radiation from Japan's nuclear crisis.

Authorities in Singapore said no abnormal changes in radiation levels have been detected, after fake text messages reportedly claimed acid rain could reach Singapore, more than 5000km southwest of Japan.
Out for the night. Everyone stay safe. I wish the best for Japan. I wish this was all just a bad dream.
According the nhk, #4 had none spent fuel rods in a containment for spent rods; which doesn't have the same containment as the main core. Even though they were not operating during the earthquake, they are still fully charged.
Looking at some of the results from studies of Chernobyl people fared surprisingly well if they did not see high doses initially. Radioactive Iodine was one of the worst offenders over time and strangely or not, cataracts and cornea opacity also was rather prevalent, particularity in higher doses.

Other than that, if the dose was low, by somewhat limited studies people seem to have done well. Very well if it is correct and holds up over time.

It seems exposure is probably most detrimental to children.

Publication of advance copy of Annex D, Volume II of the UNSCEAR 2008 Report


3.10pm A strong 6.0 magnitude earthquake has struck in the Pacific just off Chiba prefecture, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, with the force strong enough to sway buildings in Tokyo. No tsunami warning was immediately issued but the agency warned of a possible change in sea levels.


Chiba is south East of Tokio, very near... Seems like that fault, from north to south is going to keep shaking...
last i here this was still a level 6 wish evere that means you think its time they upgrade too level 7?
Quoting JohnTucker:
Looking at some of the results from studies of Chernobyl people fared surprisingly well if they did not see high doses initially. Radioactive Iodine was one of the worst offenders over time and strangely or not, cataracts and cornea opacity also was rather prevalent, particularity in higher doses.

Other than that, if the dose was low, by somewhat limited studies people seem to have done well. Very well even if it is correct and holds up over time.

It seems it is most detrimental to children.

Publication of advance copy of Annex D, Volume II of the UNSCEAR 2008 Report


Today's CNN report to this Dr. who survived Hiroshima, explained how Older people who survived, could resist Radiation affects, while children where the ones who developed , thyroid Cancer and many alterations during adolescence and adultness...
I've dabbled a bit in atmospheric models tonight. There's this one NASA page..wow. I played too long.

The flexpart model claims to be better than the older hysplit model that Masters has posted. I found the source page..I had to since I found it on Godlikeproductions.. I know..
661 Thats what I seemed to gather, Ill read up more on it in the coming days.

Its absolutely critical that peoples exposure be minimized it seems.
Quoting Skyepony:


So that means if that plume dispersion, is true, Geiger counters would be able to detect any anomalies in Washington State and in other cities of the West coast...

Would be nice to get some info about any monitors in the area...
I checked the buoys.. no tsunami triggered ones.
Quoting sunlinepr:


So that means that in theory if this is true, Geiger counters would be able to detect any anomalies in Washington State and in other cities of the West coast...

Would be nice to get some info about any monitors in the area...


It should be hardly noticeable unless it rains. The particles mostly stay aloft til brought down by rain. This is why we weren't allowed to play in the rain as kids.
Taz~ You got a Geiger counter yet?
Quoting Skyepony:
Taz~ You got a Geiger counter yet?



nop
Quoting Skyepony:


This is why we weren't allowed to play in the rain as kids.



During WWII, some kids had to watch out this:

Fire balloon This article is about the Japanese WWII weapon.
Shot-down fire balloon reinflated by Americans in California

A fire balloon, balloon bomb (Japanese: Bsen bakudan, literally "balloon bomb"), or Fu-Go was an experimental weapon launched by Japan during World War II. A hydrogen balloon with a load varying from a 12-kilogram (26 lb) incendiary to one 15 kg (33 lb) antipersonnel bomb and four 5 kg (11 lb) incendiary devices attached, they were designed as a cheap weapon intended to make use of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and wreak havoc on Canadian and American cities, forests, and farmland.

The balloons were relatively ineffective as weapons but were used in one of the few attacks on North America during World War II.

Between November 1944 and April 1945, Japan launched over 9,300 fire balloons. About 300 balloon bombs were found or observed in North America, killing six people and causing a small amount of damage.[1]

Being that is total column, with the blue & purples being lower.. if that is "lower in the column" & not concentration.. then maybe that's saying you may be able to pick up a little spike on the west coast on the 17th.. Looks like a neat site. I'll have to check it out more tomorrow.

4.02pm A clock that appears to indicate the time when a tsunami struck lies among the rubble in the city of Kesennuma. The Japanese characters read: "40th Anniversary of Foundation". Picture: AP

Gnite all...

Quoting Skyepony:
I've dabbled a bit in atmospheric models tonight. There's this one NASA page..wow. I played too long.

The flexpart model claims to be better than the older hysplit model that Masters has posted. I found the source page..I had to since I found it on Godlikeproductions.. I know..


Nice job Skye.....very nice find!
Someone made a comment a bit ago about the analysis here. Actually from my perspective, with Dr Masters blog topics and the referencing contributing bloggers add, the analysis here has been the best on the Internet, BY FAR. In scope and accuracy. When the best bloggers posted.

I dont read the second rate stuff, the vidiot posts and the social blogger rants.

There is some very good stuff posted here.
Found this realllly interesting, here is the latest update on the different reactors from JAIF

Latest Reactor Status
perfect example - thanks tx.
"TEPCO says it is still unable to resume work on cooling the reactors due to radiation risk.
by Reuters_MarkKolmar at 3:26 AM"

Link
By Shinichi Saoshiro and Chisa Fujioka

TOKYO | Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:51am EDT

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's nuclear crisis appeared to be spinning out of control on Wednesday after workers withdrew briefly from a stricken power plant because of surging radiation levels, but desperate efforts to avert a catastrophic meltdown quickly resumed.

Quoting TxKeef:
Found this realllly interesting, here is the latest update on the different reactors from JAIF

Latest Reactor Status


Good link, thanks. Looks from that like Fukushima 2 plant is ok so far.
I'm not a psychic, but I have a sinking feeling that the activity in the Japan Triangle of faults is not over. If you take a look at the new 6.2 at 13:31 (neic list) it's well south of the others, and situated on a different part of the triangle. If the whole area blows up, Japan could slide into the Japan Trench. This was a joke knocked around at Yokosuka Navy Base when I lived there in 1979, akin to Cali falling into the ocean. Anyway, if more eq's are triggered on the other faults, Japan will be an epic mess, and the world might just go crazy...worse than now.
Tokyo (CNN) -- Officials asked workers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant to evacuate temporarily Wednesday after a white cloud of smoke rose above the plant and radiation levels spiked.

Workers were "asked to withdraw to a safe area," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said. Authorities later allowed them to return after radiation levels dropped, the Tokyo Electric Power Company said.

Radiation levels at the plant have surged and dropped repeatedly over the past few days. The most recent spike "probably" occurred "because the containment vessel in reactor No. 3 has been damaged," a spokesman for Japan's nuclear safety agency later told reporters.

Edano said the smoke or vapor above the plant may have been caused by breach in the containment structure around the No. 3 reactor's containment vessel -- the steel and concrete shell that insulates radioactive material inside.

copy this for posterity

http://www.japaneselifestyle.com.au/travel/sendai .htm
As of 11 am local time, the radiation reported at the plant boundary was 3,400 microsieverts per hour.

The attempt at a helicopter water drop was aborted due to high levels of radiation.
Quoting risavjl:
I'm not a psychic, but I have a sinking feeling that the activity in the Japan Triangle of faults is not over. If you take a look at the new 6.2 at 13:31 (neic list) it's well south of the others, and situated on a different part of the triangle. If the whole area blows up, Japan could slide into the Japan Trench. This was a joke knocked around at Yokosuka Navy Base when I lived there in 1979, akin to Cali falling into the ocean. Anyway, if more eq's are triggered on the other faults, Japan will be an epic mess, and the world might just go crazy...worse than now.


Well, I hope you are wrong. That is quite the "what if" scenario.
Thank you all for sharing your finds and knowledge. So far this has been the most informative source.
There seems to be more than a bit of worry about the fairly odd aftershock pattern. That is, on average, he largest aftershock in a sequence is 1.2 units of magnitude smaller than the main shock, which will mean a 7.8-magnitude aftershock in Japan's case. Too, on average there should have been by now 10 aftershocks of 7.0 or greater. But since Friday's quake there has been just a single aftershock that large. The takeaway from experts, then, is that a 7.8 is fully possible, and even expected.

Ouch.

Possibly more concerning, however, is that the aftershocks seem to be migrating toward the south, "upping the ante" for Tokyo--a city which just three years ago was given a 30% chance of feeling Sendai-like shaking within the next 30 years. And this wouldn't be a strike-slip quake such as that felt in yesterday's 6.4 Shizokua quake, but rather a megathrust quake, the most damaging kind.

It is conjectured that a sufficiently shallow 8.0 quake under or near Tokyo would have extremely devastating consequences both locally and globally.

32.5 million people live in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
More bad news:

Radioactivity forecast system down

"A computer system that forecasts the spread of radioactivity has not been working due to malfunctioning monitoring posts around a troubled nuclear power plant in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says it does not know when the system will be back in operation."

NHK World English
now id look somewhere else in the ring of fire sounds like a johnny cash song. columbia ecuador calif.
Tokyo winds from the north at 22 mph.



Damage at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, is seen in this satellite image taken 9:35 am local time (0035 GMT) on March 16, 2011. REUTERS/DigitalGlobe/Handout
good morning dayshift

(pours Nyquil into coffee)
Quoting aquak9:
good morning dayshift

(pours Nyquil into coffee)
I take it your still "under the weather"! I hope driving is not on the schedule of events for you today.
Quoting aquak9:
good morning dayshift

(pours Nyquil into coffee)


Morning, Aqua, hope you are feeling better.

Here is a 17-minute clip that gives a very good overview of the spent fuel rod pool problem. Rachel Maddow interviews Frank von Hippel (sp?) of Princeton. He knows about these things and has some sobering things to say. I recommend it.

msnbc: The Spent Fuel Rod Pool Problem ... it's a big one
hello paka, WTO

I did a total read-back, so I kinda have been here all night
-except comatose-

Both of you have had different names before, right? You know me, I don't know you...

ok WTO- going to review that clip now
Quoting aquak9:
hello paka, WTO

I did a total read-back, so I kinda have been here all night
-except comatose-

Both of you have had different names before, right? You know me, I don't know you...

ok WTO- going to review that clip now


I've been WTO (and no one else) since July 2005.
Live video from NHK World (translated on the fly).

NHK World
Quoting aquak9:
hello paka, WTO

I did a total read-back, so I kinda have been here all night
-except comatose-

Both of you have had different names before, right? You know me, I don't know you...

ok WTO- going to review that clip now

Same name since I actively joined. Don't post often. Just learning from an outstanding froup of SME.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Damage at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, is seen in this satellite image taken 9:35 am local time (0035 GMT) on March 16, 2011. REUTERS/DigitalGlobe/Handout


Post 690.
If you enlarge this image to full screen then you can see that it is taken from the sea side looking inland.
It is now from here very clear what the extent of the damage is and it seems much worse than from the land side images we have seen.
The damage to the reactor buildings would tend to indicate from this shot that #1,#3, are in a very bad state of damage and it would probably be very difficult to imagine any body working in these buildings at this time especially also given a possible high level of radiation.
Reactor building #2seems to be still in a reasonable state from a structural point of view but with steam/smoke emerging from an opening on the sea side of the building wall.
I would be surprised if any work can be carried out there of much use until a lot of the debris is cleared not to even think about what levels the radiation is really at.
should I send you some home chicken soup???
Quoting aquak9:
good morning dayshift

(pours Nyquil into coffee)
this is suppose to be time out for the blog? march april may june july and then cape verde season 13-6-3
WTO, Paka- my mistake, those are valid, old time names and IP's. Coherency is not my strong point right now.

WTO- good video- esp about the colander vs bowl explanation on the used fuel core water pools. I found his weak laughter at the end, imitating a fireman holding a hose, to be a bit disconcerting- ahhh...a benefit of old age "go ahead and destroy your earth, I really don't care, cause I already had my fun" ...such nonchalance

foxx- a snorky good morning to you too
You poor wet doggyy. You still sound very congested. Hope you can stay home today with your bottle of Nyquil.
Feel better soon.
---->Going to watch video.

Quoting aquak9:
WTO, Paka- my mistake, those are valid, old time names and IP's. Coherency is not my strong point right now.

WTO- good video- esp about the colander vs bowl explanation on the used fuel core water pools. I found his weak laughter at the end, imitating a fireman holding a hose, to be a bit disconcerting- ahhh...a benefit of old age "go ahead and destroy your earth, I really don't care, cause I already had my fun" ...such nonchalance

foxx- a snorky good morning to you too
Morning - Morning Shift
Aqua -- bumpy night here too, hope you're feeling better, suppose snot is preferable over Hair balls

again appreciation for the information posted here -- this is been technically the best pit stop for getting updates, tech talk & explanations - I am very grateful for this community comradeship & pooling of information
snowing?

that's messed up...
WTO - thanks BIG for Maddow video post - excellent - I understood most of this in theory -- but this really clarified everything for me..... and helped clarify the present situation we are facing presently - Nuke 101 -
According to forecasts from the GFDL forecast, 90Q (recently named Arani from Brazil) is forecast to make a half-loop during the next 5 days.
708. CFLWX
Good Morning fellow bloggers it's been awhile and I'm happy to be back!
709. CFLWX
Just over 2 months to the start of hurricane season already! This season is looking quite dangerous for the SE US with nuetral conditions setting up across the Pacific and warmer than average Gulf and Caribbean SST's.
Kyodo: URGENT: Police eye using water cannon to cool Fukushima No. 4 reactor

Wow. The high-tech solutions just keep on coming...

What's most disconcerting is that none of the plans to date--water cannon, helicopter water drop, firefighters with a snorkel truck--are intended as anything more than stopgap measures. You know, a way to keep the dam from collapsing while a more permanent solution is devised. A team of U.S.-based nuclear experts are on the way; it's hoped that all these great minds can get together and find a way to stop all the units from going into an eventual meltdown, to decommission them, to cool them off and clean them up.

But what's really bothersome to me is that after all these years of using nuclear power, apparently nobody ever thought to draw up contingency plans. What will we do if the coolant pumps fail? What will we do if there are cascading failures affecting all six reactors? So now we're in a situation where three reactors have exploded and/or burned to various degrees, and the best we can come up with is water cannon, helicopter water drops, or firefighters with a snorkel truck.

--"There's no chance of a 30' tsunami overtopping the berm and flooding the generators."
--"There's no chance of a 9.0 quake striking that close."
--"There's no chance of even two reactors acting up simultaneously."
Quoting CFLWX:
Just over 2 months to the start of hurricane season already! This season is looking quite dangerous for the SE US with nuetral conditions setting up across the Pacific and warmer than average Gulf and Caribbean SST's.

Hello, CFLWX, are you new to the blog?
Nea- geee...all those unanswered, unspoken questions, that shoulda been faced years ago.

Kinda like DeepwaterHorizon, eh? Junkshot? TopHat?

Watch me pull a rabbit out my hat- -

hope ya'll enjoyed all them useless neon lights.
Quoting surfmom:
WTO - thanks BIG for Maddow video post - excellent - I understood most of this in theory -- but this really clarified everything for me..... and helped clarify the present situation we are facing presently - Nuke 101 -


yvw - if you look at post 690 you can see one of the holes in the wall of no. 4 that Prof. Hippel was talking about.
714. CFLWX
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hello, CFLWX, are you new to the blog?


No, I've been here before. I figureed I would come back close to the hurricane season. It's great to take a few months off from this blog as it can be too much sometimes.





Link for origonal size.
716. CFLWX
Big difference from this year to last year for the upcoming hurricane season as most of the hurricanes were focused where the warmest water temps were and that was over the C ATL during the 2010 season. This season the warmest temps seem to be setting up over the C/Eastern Gulf and Caribbean so I would expect many landfalling systems this year with this shift as a result of this year's La-Nina going nuetral.
CFLWX what was your handle before cause this one is new according to your sign up date of march 16 2011
CFLWX- we are in no mood for high school hijinks

you had best tell us your old screen name or you will get tore apart right now...not a threat but the tropics aren't exactly at the top of our menu of interest right now
719. CFLWX
Quoting aquak9:
CFLWX- we are in no mood for high school hijinks

you had best tell us your old screen name or you will get tore apart right now...not a threat but the tropics aren't exactly at the top of our menu of interest right now


For one I have a Master's degree in Finance. So do as you please. I am not here to engage in drama. This is a Tropical Blog so I made a couple of comments in regard to the tropics. The tragedy in Japan is like no other and I hope for the best for my friends in Japan as they are handling this disaster the best of any country in the world has over the decade or so.
Quoting CFLWX:


For one I have a Master's degree in Finance. So do as you please. I am not here to engage in drama. This is a Tropical Blog so I made a couple of comments in regard to the tropics. The tragedy in Japan is like no other and I hope for the best for my friends in Japan as they are handling this disaster the best of any country in the world has over the decade or so.
Why not use your old handle? Must be cause people didnt like you.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: URGENT: Police eye using water cannon to cool Fukushima No. 4 reactor

Wow. The high-tech solutions just keep on coming...

What's most disconcerting is that none of the plans to date--water cannon, helicopter water drop, firefighters with a snorkel truck--are intended as anything more than stopgap measures. You know, a way to keep the dam from collapsing while a more permanent solution is devised. A team of U.S.-based nuclear experts are on the way; it's hoped that all these great minds can get together and find a way to stop all the units from going into an eventual meltdown, to decommission them, to cool them off and clean them up.

But what's really bothersome to me is that after all these years of using nuclear power, apparently nobody ever thought to draw up contingency plans. What will we do if the coolant pumps fail? What will we do if there are cascading failures affecting all six reactors? So now we're in a situation where three reactors have exploded and/or burned to various degrees, and the best we can come up with is water cannon, helicopter water drops, or firefighters with a snorkel truck.

--"There's no chance of a 30' tsunami overtopping the berm and flooding the generators."
--"There's no chance of a 9.0 quake striking that close."
--"There's no chance of even two reactors acting up simultaneously."



With the Japanese Whaling Season canceled, they have quite a few water cannons available for use.

It's a troubling situation over there. Events over the past few days show that even the slightest mishap or slowing causes big problems in a hurry.

I haven't heard reported what the actual goal is here? To eventually cool the reactors enough to go in and make repairs?
heavry rain at my house right now!!
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Quoting CFLWX:
Why not use your old handle? Must be cause people didnt like you.

I'm thinking the same thing. I recognize your avatar, I just don't recall whom it was related to, though.
mental note: Do not cross Aqua when they don't feel good.
726. CFLWX
I find it interesting of just how active the the Pacific Rim has been over the last several years. I also found it interesting while listening to a geologist that the next big Quake could occur in Northern California or Oregon not Southern CA as everyone thinks.
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm thinking the same thing. I recognize your avatar, I just don't recall whom it was related to, though.


If I remember correctly, the handle was similar to yours and that handle predicted doom for Florida from every thunderstorm.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If I remember correctly, the handle was similar to yours and that handle predicted doom for Florida from every thunderstorm.
Hmmm i know who you're talking about.  Oh well, he seems harmless at the moment, or until June 1.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If I remember correctly, the handle was similar to yours and that handle predicted doom for Florida from every thunderstorm.

AH, yes, I remember now. That person who made me consider changing my entire handle to avoid being in any way related to them. That person whose blog is banned by WunderBlogAdmin.
Quoting jeffs713:
mental note: Do not cross Aqua when they don't feel good.


You know, I had the same thought! :)
whether I feel good or not (and that is really sweet of ya'll) is not an issue

respect for DocMasters and the bloggers here, is my biggest concern

and if CFLWX won't give his previous handle (yet admits he had one) then he is as good as BANNED in my book

ya'll are really sweet, y'know that, right?
It's all coming back to me now...
Quoting cat5hurricane:
It's all coming back to me now...


That would make a good song title.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
It's all coming back to me now...
I can see clearly now the rain is gone... I can see all banned people in the way... They're gonna be banned, banned for a long long time... ;)
Quoting Grothar:


That would make a good song title.

Yes, but not a good song to get stuck in your head.
Quoting jeffs713:
I can see clearly now the rain is gone... I can see all banned people in the way... They're gonna be banned, banned for a long long time... ;)


Yes, and I can see all the obstacles in your way.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yes, but not a good song to get stuck in your head.

I can think of a lot worse songs...
"La Cucaracha"
"Macarena"
"The song that never ends"

Shall I go on?
738. CFLWX
I can tell you this the American public needs to take note on how to handle a disaster because I have not heard one report of looting. The Japanese are first class citizens and they have handled this disaster in a first class manner.
Quoting jeffs713:

I can think of a lot worse songs...
"La Cucaracha"
"Macarena"
"The song that never ends"

Shall I go on?


No, I think that will do. How is everyone today?
Quoting jeffs713:

I can think of a lot worse songs...
"La Cucaracha"
"Macarena"
"The song that never ends"

Shall I go on?

No, I think we're good here :)
Quoting Grothar:


No, I think that will do. How is everyone today?

I'm doing well this morning. Going on vacation this afternoon, so I'm in a fantabulous mood for the morning.

How about you?
742. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
CFLWX what was your handle before cause this one is new according to your sign up date of march 16 2011


FloridaHeat

lol.

Quoting P451:


FloridaHeat

lol.

Heh. their act was almost funny at times. Just started to get irritating
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm doing well this morning. Going on vacation this afternoon, so I'm in a fantabulous mood for the morning.


Have a good time. It is good to get away sometimes. Will you check in from time to time?
Kyodo: Spent fuel pool at No. 3 reactor heated, emitting steam: nuke agency (22:27)
Quoting CFLWX:
I can tell you this the American public needs to take note on how to handle a disaster because I have not heard one report of looting. The Japanese are first class citizens and they have handled this disaster in a first class manner.
Its hard to loot when there is no one left alive in some of these towns and nothing left of businesses and houses but 20ft mounds of rubble.  Think about that.  No food and water or gas to get away with anything worth valuable, where are you going to take it?  Just some thoughts about the looting, but yes it seems as though they are handling the situation as best as possible.
Quoting Grothar:


Have a good time. It is good to get away sometimes. Will you check in from time to time?

Yep, have to keep an eye on the wx anyway while I'm there. (going to NOLA to be in the St. Patrick's day parade, and see some of my wife's family)
I am glad they got those workers out of there.
They should now be allowed to retire for life no matter how old they are.
Water hoses sound like a good idea until they can figure out some way to contain this.
Today is my first official day 'over the hill.'
I have taken the blood pressure medication the doctor prescribed.
Was thinking of that commercial, 'had Dad only taken his pill he would have saved us all a lot of grief!'
Anyway, bring in the heavy equipment imo.
The more the better.
749. P451
Anyone listen to the man that was in charge of Three Mile Island when it went up?

He said when the rods there were exposed, and it was for 2 hours, they melted and fused. He said luckily all that happened was they had some releases of steam and radioactivity but the containment vessel held and they were able to seal it off.

He said it was FIVE YEARS LATER that they were able to go back in and see what eventually happened. They had no idea the rods had melted and collapsed. He said had it been a full meltdown and not partial that the radioactive fuel would had eaten it's way through the base of the plant and made it's way outside.

He said the Japanese situation is far worse. He said the fire in Reactor #4 meant that the spent fuel rods there had to be exposed and had to be melting creating the intense heat causing the fires there. Given they are not in a containment unit he said that means that the fires were carrying radioactivity straight up into the atmosphere.

He said that the Japanese said their fuel rods were exposed for 2.5 hours. He said there was no way that plant wasn't experiencing a full meltdown.

He said the seawater experiment probably delays the inevitable and voiced concern that the fact the Japanese thinks there were leaks in the system, which is why they couldn't raise the water levels, that the seawater was going in, getting contaminated, and then exiting the building into the environment.

He reminded us that graphite was used in Chernobyl and that it burns very intense and it exacerbated their situation by helping inject radioactivity further into the atmosphere causing fallout over a greater area. The Japanese don't use graphite they use zirconium but he added that too does burn and will burn off once the heat is too great and allows all the fuel to join up and at that point there is no stopping the meltdown.

He said quite a bit more but you get the idea. The man knows what he's talking about. I figured I'd share. I wish there was a transcript of his commentary somewhere but I can't find it. He was on CNN or FOX late last night.

Quoting jeffs713:

Yep, have to keep an eye on the wx anyway while I'm there. (going to NOLA to be in the St. Patrick's day parade, and see some of my wife's family)


That sounds cool. Have a lot of fun while you're there.
751. P451
Quoting jeffs713:
Heh. their act was almost funny at times. Just started to get irritating


When we get busy they get drowned out except for the few who keep falling for their tricks and engaging them in dialogue.

"What is XTRP model?"

And....someone will reply thinking they're helping someone actually looking for answers instead getting hooked like a fish.

Oh well...it'll always be here. Just gotta know how to spot 'em is all and don't respond. Gets easy after a while.

Quoting P451:


When we get busy they get drowned out except for the few who keep falling for their tricks and engaging them in dialogue.

"What is XTRP model?"

And....someone will reply thinking they're helping someone actually looking for answers instead getting hooked like a fish.

Oh well...it'll always be here. Just gotta know how to spot 'em is all and don't respond. Gets easy after a while.


Yep, then you have people like me that mess with their heads for the amusement of everyone else.
Supposedly real-time radiation levels. This might be worth following in the absence of better plume info.

Japan Radiation at targetmap.com
Link to map showing radiation readings in Japan. Cannot vouch for authenticity, you will need to make your own judgement. If not believeable, ignore it.
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep, have to keep an eye on the wx anyway while I'm there. (going to NOLA to be in the St. Patrick's day parade, and see some of my wife's family)


You'll hear some good music there!!! Have fun.
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.0
Date-Time Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 13:42:32 UTC
Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 09:42:32 AM at epicenter

Location 18.986°N, 67.954°W
Depth 33.7 km (20.9 miles)
Region DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Distances 89 km (56 miles) ENE (63°) from Hig�ey, La Altagracia, Dominican Republic
103 km (64 miles) NW (314°) from Rinc�n, PR
104 km (65 miles) NW (306°) from Aguadilla, PR
124 km (77 miles) ENE (60°) from La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic
200 km (124 miles) WNW (287°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
Radiation Levels 6,600 Times Normal 20km Away from Fukushima N-Plant

Tokyo, March 16 (Jiji Press)--Radiation levels about 6,600 times normal were detected on Tuesday at a place 20 kilometers away from a nuclear power plant at the center of Japan's nuclear crisis, the science ministry said Wednesday.
Radiation levels reached 195 to 330 microsieverts per hour in the Fukushima Prefecture town of Namie in radiation monitoring activities for about 10 minutes from 8:40 p.m. Tuesday (11:40 a.m. GMT), the ministry said.
The town is about 20 kilometers away from the earthquake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant of Tokyo Electric Power Co. , the ministry said.
On Tuesday, the government advised residents within 30 kilometers from the nuclear plant to stay indoors.
The ministry reported the results of its radiation monitoring activities to the government's disaster management task force.
Someone posted this last night

Quoting Grothar:
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.0
Date-Time Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 13:42:32 UTC
Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 09:42:32 AM at epicenter

Location 18.986°N, 67.954°W
Depth 33.7 km (20.9 miles)
Region DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Distances 89 km (56 miles) ENE (63°) from Hig�ey, La Altagracia, Dominican Republic
103 km (64 miles) NW (314°) from Rinc�n, PR
104 km (65 miles) NW (306°) from Aguadilla, PR
124 km (77 miles) ENE (60°) from La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic
200 km (124 miles) WNW (287°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico


That's a little too close for comfort. Thankfully, it wasn't that bad for anyone.
Rupture in containment vessel feared

Smoke, fires wreak new havoc at ground zero

By KANAKO TAKAHARA and KAZUAKI NAGATA
Staff writers

White smoke rose from the No. 3 reactor at Fukushima's No. 1 nuclear power plant Wednesday and authorities said its containment vessel may have ruptured, spewing a radioactive cloud.

The No. 4 reactor meanwhile suffered another fire.

If the No. 3 reactor's containment vessel — the final barrier to prevent the release of radioactive substances — is breached, it will be the second among the plant's six reactors, meaning steps to avoid a worsening situation are not working.

Efforts are continuing to pump seawater on the rods to keep them from melting down. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told a news conference in the morning that smoke had been seen at about 8:30 a.m. around the No. 3 reactor.

"As we saw in the No. 2 unit, steam has been released from the (No. 3) reactor's containment vessel," Edano said.

At the No. 4 reactor, a fire that broke out earlier in the morning later died out. The reactor had caught fire a day earlier after a hydrogen blast created two big holes in the building wall.

The government's nuclear safety agency separately said the radiation level briefly reached 10 millisieverts per hour at the plant's main gate at 10:40 a.m. Wednesday.

Still, the level is lower than the 400 millisieverts per hour — a radiation level equivalent to roughly 400 times that at which people can be safely exposed in one year — that was recorded Tuesday and the maximum so far reported at the plant after apparent hydrogen blasts hit the No. 2 and No. 4 reactors.

Radiation levels had dropped to 1.9 millisieverts per hour at the main gate by 2:30 p.m.

Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the nuclear plant, instructed its officials to evacuate the area.

Officials were split on the source of the radiation leak.

"The highest possibility we can think of is that the reactor containment vessel (was breached), emitting steam out of it just like the case in the No. 2 reactor," Edano said.

But the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said the damage at the No. 2 reactor is more likely the cause of the high radiation leak.

Tepco said the water pool for spent nuclear fuel at the No. 3 reactor probably heated up, causing steam to rise.

Tepco and the government were considering hosing water from the ground or from a Self-Defense Forces helicopter to cool off the No. 3 reactor.

The government has said it does not intend to expand the evacuation zone. At present, residents within a 20-km radius have been ordered to evacuate and people between a 20- to 30-km radius have been instructed to stay indoors.

The cooling system of four of the six reactors at Fukushima No. 1 plant failed following Friday's massive earthquake and tsunami, threatening a meltdown.

Seawater continued to be pumped into all the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 reactors but water levels were still not high enough to cool the all of the fuel rods. Whether Tepco is able to do this successfully is key to averting a nuclear meltdown.
Tokyo supermarket (Reuters photo):

Quoting Grothar:


No, I think that will do. How is everyone today?
Good morning gro...Cloudy and cold here..The ITCZ showing itself rather well today...
According to the latest best track, 90Q (Arani) is strengthening right now, with maximum sustained winds of 40 kts and minimum pressure of 993 mb. It appears to be a tropical storm.
Little shake this morning...

Quoting CFLVVX:
Yes, I am Jeff9641, so what? They banned me.


And as the last name went, so goes this one...
Quoting sunlinepr:
Little shake this morning...

Good mornin PR. Have you ever felt an earthquake? If so, please describe it . I have never experienced one...(Thankfully).
NEW BLOG - What are you still doing here? :)
Quoting CFLVVX:
Yes, I am Jeff9641, so what? They banned me.

And for good reason, if I must say so.

From "Rules of the Road", on this blog (right above where you make your posts.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Someone made a comment a bit ago about the analysis here. Actually from my perspective, with Dr Masters blog topics and the referencing contributing bloggers add, the analysis here has been the best on the Internet, BY FAR. In scope and accuracy. When the best bloggers posted.

I dont read the second rate stuff, the vidiot posts and the social blogger rants.

There is some very good stuff posted here.


That's because everytime anyone contributes with some fact and no one refutes or gets into arguing against it, the blog moves towards being informative due to the effect of synergy..

syn·er·gy (snr-j)
n. pl. syn·er·gies
1. The interaction of two or more agents or forces so that their combined effect is greater than the sum of their individual effects.
2. Cooperative interaction among groups, especially among the acquired subsidiaries or merged parts of a corporation, that creates an enhanced combined effect.
Quoting hydrus:
Good mornin PR. Have you ever felt an earthquake? If so, please describe it . I have never experienced one...(Thankfully).


I was lying in the sofa, reading and suddenly I began hearing something like the sound of an approaching train.. A very fast / short vibration and the house began to shake and my wife and I were already in the front street....
Quoting jwh250:
Why Fukushima’s “spent” fuel rods will continue to catch fire



Halfway through the article he says the the fuel rods "poos" on the upper floor.

Apologies, only I would notice that.
775. flsky
Thank you so much for posting this. I have a much better understanding of what's going on now. I've also copied the lin to my sister who lives in the Pacific Northwest.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Morning, Aqua, hope you are feeling better.

Here is a 17-minute clip that gives a very good overview of the spent fuel rod pool problem. Rachel Maddow interviews Frank von Hippel (sp?) of Princeton. He knows about these things and has some sobering things to say. I recommend it.

msnbc: The Spent Fuel Rod Pool Problem ... it's a big one
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning gro...Cloudy and cold here..The ITCZ showing itself rather well today...


Morning hydrus. Getting moist in the ITCZ I see.
Quoting sunlinepr:


I was lying in the sofa, reading and suddenly I began hearing something like the sound of an approaching train.. A very fast / short vibration and the house began to shake and my wife and I were already in the front street....


Take care, sun!
I see JFLORIDA doesn't appreciate videos about what's going on with the situation over in Japan...........