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Rafael intensifying, but is pulling away from the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2012

Tropical Storm Rafael is intensifying, but is headed northwards away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, after bringing gusty winds and heavy rains to the islands over the past two days. Three-day rainfall amounts of 2 - 3" were common over the Leeward Islands, but the winds mostly stayed below tropical storm-force. Here are some of the peak wind gusts from Rafael and rainfall totals from Oct 11 through 10 am EDT October 14:

Barbados, 47 mph, 0.81"
Antigua: 37 mph, 3.66"
Martinique: 30 mph, 3.10"
St. Lucia: 39 mph, 2.07"
St. Martin: 45 mph, 2.56"
Guadaloupe: 36 mph, 2.51"
Dominica: 25 mph, 2.68"
St. Kiits: 34 mph, 3.47"

Satellite loops show that Rafael has gotten much more organized late this morning, with an impressive spiral band with very heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. Heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops are forming over the center, the hallmark of an intensifying tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 997 mb, and winds at their 5,000-foot flight level of 68 mph this morning. Rafael is experiencing a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecast for Rafael
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday, which should allow Rafael to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Heavy rains will continue over the Leeward Islands today and diminish on Monday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for Bermuda, which is at risk of seeing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael on Tuesday. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds between Monday night and Wednesday morning, and a 6% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, which would put the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.

Tropical Storm Paul forms in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Paul formed yesterday in the East Pacific, and is headed northwards towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Paul's formation brings this year's tally of named storms in the East Pacific to sixteen, making 2012 just the third year since records began in 1949 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic have had at least sixteen named storms. The other years were 2003 and 2008.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Anais in the Southwest Pacific taken at 2:05 am EDT Sunday October 14, 2012. At the time, Anais was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the Southwest Pacific so early in their hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

A rare early-season major tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean
It's springtime in the Southern Hemisphere, where an unusual tropical cyclone has formed--Tropical Cyclone Anais, which hit Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. According to Meteo France in La Reunion Island, Anais is the earliest major hurricane to form during the Southwest Indian Ocean's tropical cyclone season, which typically runs from November to May. Anais' formation in mid-October is akin to getting a major hurricane in the Atlantic during April, something which has never occurred (the earliest major hurricane on record in the Atlantic occurred on May 21, 1951.) Anais is the second earliest hurricane of any kind to form so early in the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season, after Tropical Cyclone Blanche of October 10, 1969. Anais may reach Category 4 strength before cooler waters and increased wind shear weaken the storm as it approaches Madagascar.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Skyepony:


It was from over the weekend. About the worst I've seen from it. Even those pics depicted one street. Another report..

There were no immediate reports of any significant damage or injuries in the Caribbean islands as the center of the tropical storm churned toward the north-northwest at about 10 mph (17 kph). By late Sunday night, it was about 235 miles (380 kilometers) north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and was packing winds of roughly 70 mph (110 kph).

Read more:
Rafeal had a large moisture feild with him and his slow movement was not helping.
Ice is cold. It melts when it is above freezing.
Quoting jeffs713:


Huh? What he is saying is that to draw intelligent conclusions or even hypothesis from the data, you have to smooth it to take out seasonal variations. There is no mention of tossing out data, or just removing the last few years from consideration. It means averaging out data values to get an annual number that is able to be compared apples to apples. Comparing winter sea ice in one hemisphere and summer sea ice in the other hemisphere at the same time is foolhardy and quite frankly, stupid.

No one is comparing those two, Jeff. What cracks me up is that in one breath we can draw scientifically sound climate-based conclusions on years of data, and then not include other years of data within the same time frame that suggests the complete opposite (increasing vs. decreasing ice volume, mass, and extent). Sound like Cherry-Picking to me.
OK, I will grab the target and throw it on my own back for a moment.

It is fall, after all. The sea ice should be recovering. No one said there would be no natural variation. In a few months, there will be LOTS more ice than there was that first week of September, as there should be. There is no valid argument to be had from "the sea ice is recovering." Well, thank goodness!

Not to mention, that good old common sense argument that if there was a lot of open water to freeze, there would be a rapid recovery when fall freeze-up began. A big expanse of water with the potential to freeze means a bigger potential for "recovery" when all the water freezes, after all. Still no argument.

Well at least Rafeal has taken the role of continuing with the males becoming hurricanes.Good for him I don't think Tony will be anything much if he ever forms.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I know. Isn't is about time already? But we're light years ahead in making global predictions off climate models! Go figure.


The mapping is confirming how quick the Antarctic glaciers could just slide into the ocean in spots, rapidly raising sea level. Serious mapping of Antarctica started about 8 years ago. Much is underwater or ice. It's taken NASA with satellites & submarines to get a clearer picture.

Climate models have been not doom enough...check out how bad the Arctic sea ice models did. It has come faster than what they predicted. Temp models look similiar but have been hotter than expected. Antarctic is gaining a small amount of sea ice because it's loosing glaciers as they slide into the sea. Models missed it, though some scientists suspected it. The models still weren't doom enough on the warmth or loss of glacier ice.. The last IPCC didn't even include sea level rise potential from Antarctic. I would plan on higher & faster, inaction seems irresponsible especially since our calculations haven't been doom enough so far.
Anyone want to talk about the tropics...Something that is currently happening now...
You guys are really showing your colors..if Rafael was a hurricane affecting..oh I dont know the GOM or florida, you wouldnt be able to find any discussion about the artic ice but since its only affecting some islands sitting in the atlantic ocean away from the US mainland then I guess the artic ice discussions trump a little bitty hurricane..glad to know whats more important.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone want to talk about the tropics...Something that is currently happening now...

I wish the TCRs were out... at least for the early-season storms. I want to see what the NHC thinks about them.

ADT, SAB, Recon data, ATCF, etc. suggest Rafael is now a hurricane. We should see him strengthen a little more before he reaches the mid-latitudes. I'll go a little higher than the NHC, at 80 kt (90 mph) max.

Wow, look at the cloud temperatures! (from ADT)
Center Temp : -79.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.6C
Quoting ncstorm:
You guys are really showing your colors..if Rafael was a hurricane affecting..oh I dont know the GOM or florida, you wouldnt be able to find any discussion about the artic ice but since its only affecting some islands sitting in the atlantic ocean away from the US mainland then I guess the artic ice discussions trump a little bitty hurricane..glad to know whats more important.

It's really not that big of a deal. Chill out.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I wish the TCRs were out... at least for the early-season storms. I want to see what the NHC thinks about them.

I still believe that Gordon was a major for a short period of time.I hope he's upgrading in post season.
Quoting ncstorm:
You guys are really showing your colors..if Rafael was a hurricane affecting..oh I dont know the GOM or florida, you wouldnt be able to find any discussion about the artic ice but since its only affecting some islands sitting in the atlantic ocean away from the US mainland then I guess the artic ice discussions trump a little bitty hurricane..glad to know whats more important.
I for one think that Rafeal is interesting enough to talk about.He's now a hurricane and Bermuda will be affected in some way.
Quoting ncstorm:
You guys are really showing your colors..if Rafael was a hurricane affecting..oh I dont know the GOM or florida, you wouldnt be able to find any discussion about the artic ice but since its only affecting some islands sitting in the atlantic ocean away from the US mainland then I guess the artic ice discussions trump a little bitty hurricane..glad to know whats more important.


Honestly, I don't have much to add with Rafael. I haven't been following him the last few days, and the amount of time needed to check everything isn't really feasible at this time. (or at least, I wouldn't be able to add anything that hasn't already been said).

Now, repeating myself for the 500th time about drawing conclusions from arctic ice data and such... that requires very little research at all to explain the concept.
See..this why AGW debates will go nowhere..People will argue and argue and argue and not get to a point where they can agree on.So can we like agree to disagree?
Dr. Masters, Anais is a Southwest Indian storm. Can you change that? Or are you writing a blog already?
So we are putting all this trust in these long range climate models when we struggle to forecast hurricanes 1-3 days out. Oh yea, I'm a believer.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Dr. Masters, Anais is a Southwest Indian storm. Can you change that? Or are you writing a blog already?



dont worry about it i sure they no about it and likey have a new blog soon
Quoting ncstorm:
You guys are really showing your colors..if Rafael was a hurricane affecting..oh I dont know the GOM or florida, you wouldnt be able to find any discussion about the artic ice but since its only affecting some islands sitting in the atlantic ocean away from the US mainland then I guess the artic ice discussions trump a little bitty hurricane..glad to know whats more important.


I've looked..show us the massive damage from Rafael...there is more people missing in Glacier National Forest right now then the none missing from Rafael..I've been looking & posting about it.

It's also not significantly affecting the islands anymore. Look out Bermuda!


You've complained more about our discussions than added to either topic.
Quoting luvtogolf:
So we are putting all this trust in these long range climate models when we can't struggle to forecast hurricanes 1-3 days out. Oh yea, I'm a believer.

A hurricane is a very complex system. We still don't have all the facts about it, for example how rapid intensification occurs, so it is obvious we can't exactly forecast tracks and intensities of hurricane even one day out. The NHC is working hard to improve their 3-day and 5-day forecasts. So are the other meteorological centers. Please keep this in mind.
Quoting luvtogolf:
So we are putting all this trust in these long range climate models when we can't struggle to forecast hurricanes 1-3 days out. Oh yea, I'm a believer.

Instead, they will tell you "Oh No! What are you talking about! Weather isn't the same as Climate!!"

But no more than a few minutes later, they will then turn around and post endless stories and instances of extreme *WEATHER* being the certain direct result of AGW.

An instant classic if you ask me. The hypocrisy at it's finest. My buddies get a good laugh out of that.
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering, does it look like the Hurricane Seasons over for us? Been very sick and haven't been on or anything and I was just wondering what's going on out there.

sheri
Can we talk about Rafael retiring? It looks like he has caused some significant flooding, which is no surprise all of his convection was displaced over the islands and lingered for a day after he left. I know Klaus in 1990 was a similar storm it caused heavy flooding but damages were maybe 2 million dollars and there were 11 deaths, which is bad but usually not the totals of retired storms. The WMO retired the storm anyway. If Klaus was retired I think Rafael has a good chance.
Does anyone know where you can get good cams out of Bermuda?.It will be interesting to see how conditions will do down hill.I'm sure Bermuda will make it though as they have good building codes and the island is designed to take heavy surf.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering, does it look like the Hurricane Seasons over for us? Been very sick and haven't been on or anything and I was just wondering what's going on out there.

sheri


Morning Sheri. Hope you are feeling better. I was wondering the same thing. Here's the latest infrared of the CV area. Not sure if that wave will amount to anything in the next week or so but it appears to be quiet over the next few days past Rafael.

525. 7544
is raf about to a stall ?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Can we talk about Rafael retiring? It looks like he has caused some significant flooding, which is no surprise all of his convection was displaced over the islands and lingered for a day after he left. I know Klaus in 1990 was a similar storm it caused heavy flooding but damages were maybe 2 million dollars and there were 11 deaths, which is bad but usually not the totals of retired storms. The WMO retired the storm anyway. If Klaus was retired I think Rafael has a good chance.


Entirely possible, Tomas also caused significant damage to the islands and was retired. Rafael could very well be retired when it's all said and done.
Quoting calkevin77:


Morning Sheri. Hope you are feeling better. I was wondering the same thing. Here's the latest infrared of the CV area. Not sure if that wave will amount to anything in the next week or so but it appears to be quiet over the next few days past Rafael.

Yes.But on the 300 hour model of the GFS it shows Sandy and Tony.

(sarcastic flag on).
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering, does it look like the Hurricane Seasons over for us? Been very sick and haven't been on or anything and I was just wondering what's going on out there.

sheri


with r spinning away
should be quiet till mid next week
tnen may have a little something maybe
down in sw carb models have been showing
ghosts from time to time there
so we still have to watch
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Dr. Masters, Anais is a Southwest Indian storm. Can you change that? Or are you writing a blog already?

Good one, didn't spot that. Also it has been pointed out there have been another 2 Tropical Cyclones much earlier. SE-PAC 21P and S-IND Kuena.

Once again, Goodnight
Quoting luvtogolf:
So we are putting all this trust in these long range climate models when we can't struggle to forecast hurricanes 1-3 days out. Oh yea, I'm a believer.
An almanac can tell you when high tide will be in your location on a day 20 years from now. But no one can guess with any degree of accuracy the size of a wave coming ashore five minutes from now--yet that doesn't make the almanac wrong, does it?

The analogy, then:
Climate = tides.
Weather = individual waves.

'Tis a simple analogy, yes, but a right good one. I trust it will help alleviate some of your confusion. (You can thank me later.)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But on the 300 hour model of the GFS it shows Sandy and Tony.

(sarcastic flag on).

Time for us to make that dreaded trip to Home Depot, wash. ;-]
Awesome waterspout by out Wunderphotographer DanielPavlinovic in Dubrovnik, Croatia. Click on pic to see the impressive series.




Quoting TomballTXPride:

Instead, they will tell you "Oh No! What are you talking about! Weather isn't the same as Climate!!"

But no more than a few minutes later, they will then turn around and post endless stories and instances of extreme *WEATHER* being the certain direct result of AGW.



When you look at the physics behind water vapor in the air increasing a specific amount when air is warmed a specified amount, the extreme rains we are seeing make sense in a warmer world..these are laws of nature with predictable results. Winter happens regardless, but the clash of that cold with warmer than before air would make one expect insane tornado outbreaks, derechos & such.
Color me surprised if Rafael is our last named storm (heck, our last hurricane for that matter), guessing we'll have our last named storm in the SW Caribbean.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Time for us to make that dreaded trip to Home Depot, wash. ;-]

LOL go now before the rush.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But on the 300 hour + model of the GFS it shows Sandy and Tony.


Yeah these late season storms can sometimes surprise us so it will be interesting to see what the long range models have in store. This season has def had a few more named storms than earlier anticipated. Weird to think we are only 4 away from greek.
Good Morning Everyone...This was what the Experimental FIM was showing last night in its long range projection. The storm starts to form south of Hispaniola on the 22nd and gets pulled northwest over Cuba and then rides up the East Coast. I wonder if that wave over the Central Atlantic would be the catalyst?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's really not that big of a deal. Chill out.


true, its only a category 1 hurricane..wasnt Issac a Cat 1 hurricane?..isnt flooding happening in the islands?..didnt flooding happen behind Issac?..can anyone spot the difference? yeah, you right, no big deal.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Time for us to make that dreaded trip to Home Depot, wash. ;-]
Make sure you also get your holloween candy since the storm will hit around that time.Lol so you and your family can feast!.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Time for us to make that dreaded trip to Home Depot, wash. ;-]


Hurricane shutters and snow plow equipment on sale at the same time there :)
Quoting Skyepony:
Awesome waterspout by out Wunderphotographer DanielPavlinovic in Dubrovnik, Croatia. Click on pic to see the impressive series.






When you look at the physics behind water vapor in the air increasing a specific amount when air is warmed a specified amount, the extreme rains we are seeing make sense in a warmer world..these are laws of nature with predictable results. Winter happens regardless, but the clash of that cold with warmer than before air would make one expect insane tornado outbreaks, derechos & such.


Water vapor Skye is a far FAR greater absorbent than C02 or any other Greenhouse Gas of what is believe to drive AGWT. To take it a step further, droughts are very commonplace were we would normally expect to see them in a climatologically set period of time (generally > 30 years).

That has to be one of best, most clear pictures of a waterspout that close up. And the trajectory of the shot makes the picture that much more grand. I'd plus this post twice if I could.
SLU it looks like another invest in the eatl 99L at 10n 33w
Quoting washingtonian115:
Make sure you also get your holloween candy since the storm will hit around that time.Lol so you and your family can feast!.

I'm there!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Make sure you also get your holloween candy since the storm will hit around that time.Lol so you and your family can feast!.
Quoting ncstorm:


true, its only a category 1 hurricane..wasnt Issac a Cat 1 hurricane?..isnt flooding happening in the islands?..didnt flooding happen behind Issac?..can anyone spot the difference? yeah, you right, no big deal.
Both of you might want to stock up before then look at post 537.
Rafael today is looking a lot more Tropical then it was a few days a go when it was looking like a sub Tropical storm
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering, does it look like the Hurricane Seasons over for us? Been very sick and haven't been on or anything and I was just wondering what's going on out there.

sheri


Some of the MJO models are getting crazy on us. This suggests far from over.


Feel better Sheri!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning Everyone...This was what the Experimental FIM was showing last night in its long range projection. The storm starts to form south of Hispaniola on the 22nd and gets pulled northwest over Cuba and then rides up the East Coast. I wonder if that wave over the Central Atlantic would be the catalyst?

My birthday plans will be ruined!.
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU it looks like another invest in the eatl 99L at 10n 33w



there is no 99L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning Everyone...This was what the Experimental FIM was showing last night in its long range projection. The storm starts to form south of Hispaniola on the 22nd and gets pulled northwest over Cuba and then rides up the East Coast. I wonder if that wave over the Central Atlantic would be the catalyst?



what category is that GT?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Levi once demonstrated that the waves can sometimes get picked up by the 'Tail' of a storm or another wave moving across the MDR, shall be inetersting to see if the central Atlantic wave follows Raphaels...tail
Quoting ncstorm:


what category is that GT?
hmm? I would say a strong TS/minimal hurricane as some 65 knot winds are being shown there.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning Everyone...This was what the Experimental FIM was showing last night in its long range projection. The storm starts to form south of Hispaniola on the 22nd and gets pulled northwest over Cuba and then rides up the East Coast. I wonder if that wave over the Central Atlantic would be the catalyst?

That's very Hurricane Hazel-like (Oct. 5-18, 1954).

hazel
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good one, didn't spot that. Also it has been pointed out there have been another 2 Tropical Cyclones much earlier. SE-PAC 21P and S-IND Kuena.

Once again, Goodnight

Kuena would have been part of the 2011-12 cyclone season since it was in June and their season ends in May (it would be like a December storm for us) also I'd like to Point out that their season starts November 1st so Anais would be analagous to a May major hurricane, not an April one (which is still very impressive just not unheard of)
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's very Hurricane Hazel-like (Oct. 5-18, 1954).

hazel

Indeed. That's the reference ncstorm made a couple pages back. ;-]
Rough seas from Patty beached a barge on Cocoa Beach yesterday. Looked bigger on the news than this pic here.

Quoting TomballTXPride:


Water vapor Skye is a far FAR greater absorbent than C02 or any other Greenhouse Gas of what is believe to drive AGWT. To take it a step further, droughts are very commonplace were we would normally expect to see them in a climatologically set period of time (generally > 30 years).



Drought, aerosols & global dimming due to air pollution is a pretty interesting subject to study. Some of the drought cycles we thought we understood are looking in doubt due to aerosol studies.

Water vapor has made for another unfortunate feedback loop to a warmer world. Atleast you understand how different chemical compounds retain specific amounts of heat.
557. etxwx
Here's an explanation of the terms "ice extent" and "ice area" from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

What is the difference between sea ice area and extent?

Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method.

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.

Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles).

Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles).

Scientists at NSIDC report extent because they are cautious about summertime values of ice concentration and area taken from satellite sensors. To the sensor, surface melt appears to be open water rather than water on top of sea ice. So, while reliable for measuring area most of the year, the microwave sensor is prone to underestimating the actual ice concentration and area when the surface is melting. To account for that potential inaccuracy, NSIDC scientists rely primarily on extent when analyzing melt-season conditions and reporting them to the public. That said, analyzing ice area is still quite valuable. Given the right circumstances, background knowledge, and scientific information on current conditions, it can provide an excellent sense of how much ice there really is “on the ground.”


Source info: NSIDC is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The University and CIRES provide a collaborative environment and support for our research. NSIDC's research and scientific data management activities are supported by NASA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other federal agencies, through competitive grants and contracts.
Huh?
..RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 23.0°N 65.7°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

What could have come in to not declare it a hurricane?
Ew no hurricane Hazel part 2 please...I mean it's just one model run so i'm not freaking out yet.Well if Hazel were to happen again I will def(defininitly) not be on here for a long time.and my Holloween-Christmas plans will be ruined.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
hmm? I would say a strong TS/minimal hurricane as some 65 knot winds are being shown there.


Thanks GT..a long way out but always watching!
even no evere thing showed Rafael was fully Tropical i think think for a time there Rafael was a sub Tropical storm the way the storm looked at the time and the wind shear hiting it then has wind shear lowered and started too get more rounded it transitioned back too a Tropical storm
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Huh?
..RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 23.0°N 65.7°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

What could have come in to not declare it a hurricane?
Being conservative yet again NHC..
Quoting Tazmanian:
even no evere thing showed Rafael was fully Tropical i think think for a time there Rafael was a sub Tropical storm the way the storm looked at the time and the wind shear hiting it then has wind shear lowered and started too get more rounded it transitioned back too a Tropical storm


A sheared cyclone does not translate into a sub-tropical cyclone. Data from the HH showed temperatures were high in the cyclone, and the winds were centered over the CoC with a developing eyewall, not characteristic of a sub-tropical storm at all. There was nothing cold core about it, it didn't align itself with any ULLs, and -80C convection was firing over the center. Just a somewhat sheared strong TS.
So recon finds 70 knot flight level winds, the best track updates to 65 knots, and yet brown leaves it at 60 knots. Not sure I agree with that.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Huh?
..RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 23.0°N 65.7°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

What could have come in to not declare it a hurricane?



it gos too show that the nhc dos not all ways follow what the atcf web site showes
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So recon finds 70 knot flight level winds, the best track updates to 65 knots, and yet brown leaves it at 60 knots. Not sure I agree with that.




read this part

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 AND 75 KT
DURING PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH MAXIMUM
CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 55-57 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So recon finds 70 knot flight level winds, the best track updates to 65 knots, and yet brown leaves it at 60 knots. Not sure I agree with that.

Not sure I agree either. But Boy, ain't it great we have the freedom to publicly question another forecasters point of view? I love that. :-]
Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Peninsula.


HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

PAUL IS INTENSIFYING. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AN EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER
HAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES
AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80
KT.

PAUL HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N 118W DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER 48 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD DECELERATE AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTARD AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
HAS AGAIN SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH PAUL ARE ALREADY GRADUALLY
DECREASING...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48
HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND
THE CYCLONE COULD DECOUPLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.3N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

Quoting CybrTeddy:


A sheared cyclone does not translate into a sub-tropical cyclone. Data from the HH showed temperatures were high in the cyclone, and the winds were centered over the CoC with a developing eyewall, not characteristic of a sub-tropical storm at all. There was nothing cold core about it, it didn't align itself with any ULLs, and -80C convection was firing over the center. Just a somewhat sheared strong TS.




if i recall Tropical Storm Lee was a sheared TS and it went sub Tropical has it made land fall
Quoting Tazmanian:



it gos too show that the nhc dos not all ways follow what the atcf web site showes


The ATCF is the NHC so, or atleast the feed they put into the models every cycle (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z). Rafael will be a hurricane later today, but they upgraded it to a hurricane and then brought it back down to TS strength.
Quoting Tazmanian:
Rafael today is looking a lot more Tropical then it was a few days a go when it was looking like a sub Tropical storm


Good point Taz~ You can see how the big C here for current is deeper into the warm core (tropical) region then Rafael was in the beginning (A). Interesting gfs forecasts it to go subtropical a bit then back toward more tropical..

Quoting ncstorm:


true, its only a category 1 hurricane..wasnt Issac a Cat 1 hurricane?..isnt flooding happening in the islands?..didnt flooding happen behind Issac?..can anyone spot the difference? yeah, you right, no big deal.

If it was really that bad they wouldn't have power and therefore would not be able to access the site anyways.
Quoting Skyepony:


Some of the MJO models are getting crazy on us. This suggests far from over.




Some? You mean all. (at least all of the GFS model runs)
Quoting Tazmanian:




if i recall Tropical Storm Lee was a sheared TS and it went sub Tropical has it made land fall


From the NHC: Early the next day, the separation between Lee and the upper-level low
decreased and the two systems became co-located around 0600 UTC 3 September
. During this
time, the overall satellite appearance of Lee began to take on the appearance of a subtropical
cyclone.

Key part, Lee merged with the ULL and became sub-tropical. There was no such occurrence with Rafael.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it was really that bad they wouldn't have power and therefore would not be able to access the site anyways.

Smart phones can.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it was really that bad they wouldn't have power and therefore would not be able to access the site anyways.


People in the impacted states couldnt access this site during Isaac either but yet we still talked about it? moving on..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So recon finds 70 knot flight level winds, the best track updates to 65 knots, and yet brown leaves it at 60 knots. Not sure I agree with that.

70kt flight level winds doesn't support 65kt surface winds. 60kt sounds reasonable.
578. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Huh?
..RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 23.0°N 65.7°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

What could have come in to not declare it a hurricane?


If they weren't always so conservative, there'd be no need to waste time doing a post-season analysis of all these storms
Just as an aside: the September NOAA State of the Climate report was just released, and--no surprise--last month was the warmest September ever recorded on the planet.

September

And in other climate news, Arctic sea ice area set a new record anomaly yesterday at 2.7 million square kilometers below the average for the date.
Quoting ncstorm:


People in the impacted states couldnt access this site during Isaac either but yet we still talked about it? moving on..

Quoting ncstorm:


People in the impacted states couldnt access this site during Isaac either but yet we still talked about it? moving on..


Lol, but the main point of this argument was that we should keep the global warming posts off here so people in the islands could find information concerning the storm.

But yeah, anyways, moving on.
Quoting jeffs713:


Some? You mean all.


I get the ukmet, JMAN & ECMM are of little hope:)

The rest tend to over due for our basin when they look like that..except if mjo is gonna get mad here it's usually Sept or Oct.

I went with 3, maybe more storms for Oct because of the MJO coming back around. We've already had 2.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Keep, that image is two days old.
Quoting Skyepony:


Good point Taz~ You can see how the big C here for current is deeper into the warm core (tropical) region then Rafael was in the beginning (A). Interesting gfs forecasts it to go subtropical a bit then back toward more tropical..





thanks Skyepony CybrTeddy plzs check out post 571
Quoting jeffs713:

70kt flight level winds doesn't support 65kt surface winds. 60kt sounds reasonable.

Oops. I meant 80 knots.
Quoting Tazmanian:




thanks Skyepony CybrTeddy plzs check out post 571


I did, it shows A - C as tropical, and Z as sub-tropical. That means the GFS is forecasting it to go sub-tropical, more than likely extra-tropical. It was never at any point a sub-tropical cyclone.
Quoting jeffs713:

70kt flight level winds doesn't support 65kt surface winds. 60kt sounds reasonable.


They were 80kts.
Quoting Skyepony:


Good point Taz~ You can see how the big C here for current is deeper into the warm core (tropical) region then Rafael was in the beginning (A). Interesting gfs forecasts it to go subtropical a bit then back toward more tropical..




Skyepony and it looks like it did this that i wounder if the nhc will take notes of this
Quoting Tazmanian:




thanks Skyepony CybrTeddy plzs check out post 571


Does look less like the number nine than it has too. Something leaning at all nine shaped tends to be cooler core that a nice fat round exploding tropical system..regardless of cause.
Quoting jeffs713:

70kt flight level winds doesn't support 65kt surface winds. 60kt sounds reasonable.


Here are the readings by recon early this morning on the first pass.

Maximum Wind Outbound: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:55:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:55:00Z
Quoting Tazmanian:



Skyepony and it looks like it did this that i wounder if the nhc will take notes of this


I'm sure they noted it. It's been obvious all the while that it wasn't deeply warm core in the beginning but it has been none the less warm core so far. Hence the tropical & not sub-tropical designation.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just as an aside: the September NOAA State of the Climate report was just released, and--no surprise--last month was the warmest September ever recorded on the planet.

September

And in other climate news, Arctic sea ice area set a new record anomaly yesterday at 2.7 million square kilometers below the average for the date.


As of last month, temps in the US had to average in the coldest 1/3 of all years recorded since about 1900 for us to not have the warmest year on record. This knocks out yet another month where we would have needed below normal temps. A more and more anomalous cold spell is going to be required the closer we get to the end of the year.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Instead, they will tell you "Oh No! What are you talking about! Weather isn't the same as Climate!!"

But no more than a few minutes later, they will then turn around and post endless stories and instances of extreme *WEATHER* being the certain direct result of AGW.

An instant classic if you ask me. The hypocrisy at it's finest. My buddies get a good laugh out of that.


The increases in extreme weather are consistent with the predictions made for a warmer climate. But extreme weather over a few days, or a month, or even a full year are not exactly direct evidence of climate change or global warming.
Of course the increase in extremes, the increase in temperatures, the loss of Arctic sea ice, the ocean acidification, the accelerating loss of Greenland icepack, the accelerating loss of land glaciers hasn't just happened in a day or a month or a single year.

Such things have been happening, unequivocally, over long enough time scales to be classified as climate... as in decades. And when these things continue, it is correct to say that the observations are consistent with the observed trends. Not direct evidence for, but consistent with.
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 15Oct.12pmGMT
22.1n65.1w has been re-evaluated&altered

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