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Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:53 PM GMT on March 14, 2011

Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.


Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Earthquake

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Evening all.

I would just like to say that we have discussed almost no weather since the end of January. It has been one freaky earthquake season....

I'm hoping they can get the reactor situation under control sooner rather than later, but not feeling so optimistic about it anymore...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Everyone within 20km of the plant need to evacuate immediately.
But can they get out?
Quoting jwh250:
NHK World TV (English translation)


Thanx for the linkie dinkie


Domo aarogotto
Quoting SquallyWx:
494. The addendum is most alarming.


Figures, with all the other out of control fires, explosions, and chain reactions at the other reactors...
Last night I thought the situation couldn't possibly get worse, but time after time, it does. This is certainly going to go down in history.
Breaking News: A fire has erupted in a fourth reactor at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, top Japanese official says.
This is a bad thing.
Some experts suggested all within 30km evacuate, but the Prime Minister overrode them, and said evacuate only within 20km; those between 20km and 30km need to stay indoors. Assuming they have an indoors.

Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all.
actually, you can leave-out the 'good' part...

what a mess.
we got to do a mass evac of that place and like now the sooner the better get out the living come back for the dead
30 KM radius asked to stay indoors....
What a mess. If mother nature don't break us, man surely will! Why does anyone deserve to wake up one day after ma nature had her way to the fact that was the good part?

God bless whomever this ongoing disaster will effect.
They are unable to cool the fuel pool on reactor #4. Does this mean a meltdown is almost inevitable? That sounds very serious to me.
Quoting Patrap:
This is a bad thing.
we have seen nothing yet
prepare the world for bad news
515. flsky
Sorry everyone for responding to the jerk's bait. He's on ignore from now on out.
My heart is just breaking. I have seen so much in my years, but never like this. Thousands of people are being told to evacuate or stay in doors. I do not know how populated the region may be, but I imagine it won't be easy to evacuate. Fuel & food shortages do not make things easier.

I also have an ominous feeling that I haven't seen the end of this story either. My gut tells me this could get worse -- much worse. I pray I am wrong.
"I am become Death, the shatterer of worlds" is a famous citation of Oppenheimer, J.Robert, who said it under the impression of the first atomic bomb having been detonated July 16th,1945.

In reference to the Trinity test in New Mexico, where his Los Alamos team first tested the bomb, Oppenheimer famously recalled the Bhagavad Gita: "If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky, that would be like the splendor of the mighty one." and "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."
BREAKING NEWS

A fire has erupted in a fourth reactor at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, top Japanese official says.
Quoting flsky:
Sorry everyone for responding to the jerk's bait. He's on ignore from now on out.


The comment went totally over my head to be honest.
If anyone is intrested there's a storm in the south atlantic.
This on CNN's Ticker

Official: Radiation levels at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant are at "levels that can impact human health" #quake http://on.cnn.com/fpRk6P - @cnnbrk
Maybe we should send out the Planetary Distress Signal?

We have to have a Planetary Distress Flare or Something?

I mean, c'mon man!


Spock would have a plan, and Kirk would get the Lady.

We need some straight dope about these reactor conditions or maybe some Drone flight sniffs as well.

This is not the time for Japan to save face and teeter totter with info,..they have a clear obligation to share as in real time..
Complete Update





This has just surpassed anything I thought would be possible. I'm pretty sure that they were saying that reactor 4 was stabilized earlier (I can't seem to find the news page with an overview of each reactors initial condition). The explosions from the other reactors must have damaged the cooling of spent rods at #4 which is what caused the fire.
I'd be bugging out if in the zone esp downwind.

Make Haste and evacuate now.

Why the heck are the spent fuel rods stored so close to the active reactors?

So what now? This stuff is going to burn and possibly the containment pools break under heat stresses and all of these spent rods and active rods become exposed?

This seems ridiculous, like some of the incompetent stuff you see in a disaster movie or even a "Space Balls" type spoof...

The possibility of the spent rods being exposed to air or even open flame now, in addition to the active reactors...jeez...
Quoting RecordSeason:
Why the heck are the spent fuel rods stored so close to the active reactors?

So what now? This stuff is going to burn and possibly the containment pools break under heat stresses and all of these spent rods and active rods become exposed?

This seems ridiculous, like some of the incompetent stuff you see in a disaster movie or even a "Space Balls" type spoof...

The possibility of the spent rods being exposed to air or even open flame now, in addition to the active reactors...jeez...


I hate to even ask this, but what happens if open flame hits the spent rods? Big boom?
I'm assuming most people have evacuated the area around that plant, so thankfully if the "worst" does happen not to many people will get hurt.
Ok, some of you are going off the deep end again.

Worst case scenario... you have 4 meltdowns.. equivalent to 4 three mile islands.

That isn't even remotely close to what happened during the American nuclear weapons tests.

Its not the end of the world.
I have a ? if anyone here may know.

What sea water that is not being evaporated from the heat of the fuel would be returned to the sea radioactive? Or is there such a thing? Dumb ?
I think in the future, governments should adopt a policy of not allowing reactors to be placed this close to one another.

It is possible secondary damages from the first explosion have helped contribute to the further failures at the other 3 reactors. Some of this secondary damage and complications MIGHT have been prevented had the reactors been farther away from one another.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, some of you are going off the deep end again.

Worst case scenario... you have 4 meltdowns.. equivalent to 4 three mile islands.

That isn't even remotely close to what happened during the American nuclear weapons tests.

Its not the end of the world.
maybe not for us but them and all that come to help them
536. mbjjm
Each evening the news on the nuclear situation gets worst. Yesterday, We hear everything is fine , just a hydrogen blast no damage to vessel containing inner core,Tonight " radiation levels can affecdt human health". I can only image what they will say tommorrow night . Can we trust the information being supplied by the Japanese Government. Like any country they have there own economic and other interest to protect and would seek to downplay bad publicity to There needs to be independent verification on the situatiobn there.
Is it even possible to evacuate Tokyo?
A very tired-looking NBC science chief Robert Bazell--who is in Tokyo--just dressed down MSNBC's Ed Schultz, telling him that while the situation at Fukushima wasn't anything to take lightly, the American media are greatly twisting and hyping the situation, as this is no Chernobyl, no way, now how, and nuclear power is still far safer than coal or oil or any other major source of energy. Ed didn't remind him that it was the PM who insisted everyone within 20km evacuate immediately; maybe he saw how tired Bazell wasm or NBC honchos had warned Schultz to defer to walker, or something. Anyway, an interesting exchange it was...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, some of you are going off the deep end again.

Worst case scenario... you have 4 meltdowns.. equivalent to 4 three mile islands.

That isn't even remotely close to what happened during the American nuclear weapons tests.

Its not the end of the world.


They just told the people in a 20 to 30km radius to stay in doors, dust themselves off, and not to do anything to allow air exchange from inside and outside. To leave any clothes they may have had hanging outside, etc.

The Japanese government said it is a DANGEROUS level of radiation coming from reactor number 1.
Apparently #4 is much more severe than the other reactors, even though the other 3 are extremely serious to begin with. I really don't know if they will be able to stop this; if it were as simple as dumping cement on it, this would have been finished a while ago.

400 milliS at the #3 and 100 milliS at the #4, now there is proof of serious radiation contamination. It's not just 3 meltdowns, it's meltdowns plus additional rods being stored becoming vaporized; in addition to a fire providing vertical flow for the particulates.
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe we should send out the Planetary Distress Signal?

We have to have a Planetary Distress Flare or Something?

I mean, c'mon man!


Spock would have a plan, and Kirk would get the Lady.

We need some straight dope about these reactor conditions or maybe some Drone flight sniffs as well.

This is not the time for Japan to save face and teeter totter with info,..they have a clear obligation to share as in real time..
the boys should just start air dropping tons and tons of concrete over the whole dam thing seal up sent it to hell

Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, some of you are going off the deep end again.

Worst case scenario... you have 4 meltdowns.. equivalent to 4 three mile islands.

That isn't even remotely close to what happened during the American nuclear weapons tests.

Its not the end of the world.
Well put, very well put.
Japanese Exchange dips below 9000,,and loses 13% in 2 Days.

Naw ,,nothing to worry bout here..

Then there is the Human Toll.

Theres ya problem I'd say.
Nice to see Japanese politics and greed is the same as American...

Even in the middle of their worst quake and tsunami every, as well as 4 possible meltdowns, they interrupt coverage on the disasters to stop and talk about stocks...go figure...
545. srada
Quoting mbjjm:
Each evening the news on the nuclear situation gets worst. Yesterday, We hear everything is fine , just a hydrogen blast no damage to vessel containing inner core,Tonight " radiation levels can affecdt human health". I can only image what they will say tommorrow night . Can we trust the information being supplied by the Japanese Government. Like any country they have there own economic and other interest to protect and would seek to downplay bad publicity to There needs to be independent verification on the situatiobn there.


From what CNN is reporting, the Japanese govt is not downplaying the situation anymore..there is a high level of urgency now to get these people out of harm way, they have evacuated most workers from the plant per CNN which says a lot, due to that the situation is lost and now its a matter of getting the hell out of dodge..
The Fallback solution leaves a Hot core,,that will maybe go exposed at some point.

They gonna have to cover it somehow.
Hmmm since everyone is brainwashed with the Japanese natrual disaster/reacter melt down I shall return in about a weeks time or.....in 2 months time...
Quoting Patrap:
Japanese Exchange dips below 9000,,and loses 13% in 2 Days.

Naw ,,nothing to worry bout here..

Then there is the Human Toll.

Theres ya problem Id say.


Well put...
Any comments on the SA Invest? Odd to see this in March.
550. srada
I dont understand the evacuation mile reasoning they are using..they have gone from 12 miles to only 19 miles even though the govt is saying that radiation levels are now where they can impact human health..Get some buses and get these people away from these plants!!
I think people suddenly freaking out about nuclear fission power across the U.S. and World is silly. Fukushima should teach lessons about engineering, and general mechanics which can be deployed on a global skill.

Nuclear Fission is safe when the right measures are taken, and more plants need to be built. When you think of oil and coal, and how they have been destroying the environment for decades; id rather have a clean safe Nuclear Plant any day.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm since everyone is brainwashed with the Japanese natrual disaster/reacter melt down I shall return in about a weeks time or.....in 2 months time...


Cool...see ya later!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm since everyone is brainwashed with the Japanese natrual disaster/reacter melt down I shall return in about a weeks time or.....in 2 months time...


The whole world is focused on it and rightfully so since it could impact us all.
Kyodo: Hydrogen explosion occurs at Fukushima #4 reactor.
Quoting srada:
I dont understand the evacuation mile reasoning they are using..they have gone from 12 miles to only 19 miles even though the govt is saying that radiation levels are now where they can impact human health..Get some buses and get these people away from these plants!!


You uh...realize most of the roads in the effected areas are either covered in debris or faulted in half by several feet... additionally, most of the automobiles in the effected areas have been destroyed anyway.

So there are no roads to travel on, and no automobiles to put people in anyway.
Quoting auburn:


Cool...see ya later!

:)
Quoting Patrap:
Japanese Exchange dips below 9000,,and loses 13% in 2 Days.

Naw ,,nothing to worry bout here..

Then there is the Human Toll.

Theres ya problem Id say.


Don't think for one minute that a stock exchange cares about any lives. Maybe the loss of productivity from them, but not the people. That being said, ain't it funny how someone across the world can lose money cause people elsewhere lost their lives? I would be willing to bet they are trying to find ways to invest in funeral homes.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: Hydrogen explosion occurs at Fukushima #4 reactor.


Please tell me the workers have been evacuated!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
BREAKING NEWS

A fire has erupted in a fourth reactor at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, top Japanese official says.


The problem is, these reactors have probably overheated passed the ability to be cooled and stabilized. That fire is a result of Nuclear meltdown.
Quoting MrstormX:
I think people suddenly freaking out about nuclear fission power across the U.S. and World is silly. Fukushima should teach lessons about engineering, and general mechanics which can be deployed on a global skill.

Nuclear Fission is safe when the right measures are taken, and more plants need to be built. When you think of oil and coal, and how they have been destroying the environment for decades; id rather have a clean safe Nuclear Plant any day.

I'd rather have "a clean safe Nuclear Plant", too. But perhaps your definition of "safe" and my definition differ somewhat...
Of course I'm not on expert on Nuclear physics or anything, just from what I know, the reactor that suffered that large explosion and now a fire raging there is a sign of either complete failure or leading in that direction.


Quoting Jedkins01:


The problem is, these reactors have probably overheated passed the ability to be cooled and stabilized. That fire is a result of Nuclear meltdown.


#4 was not under operation when the earthquake occurred; but in terms of the stored rods, the blast/fire is most likely from the meltdown of these. Apparently the level of radiation outside of #3 is half of the level resulting in 50% chance of death.

This page is also useful in determining the danger of different elements Link. As with plutonium, it is much more dangerous if taken internally due to the amount of energy released from decay.
564. srada
Quoting RecordSeason:


You uh...realize most of the roads in the effected areas are either covered in debris or faulted in half by several feet... additionally, most of the automobiles in the effected areas have been destroyed anyway.

So there are no roads to travel on, and no automobiles to put people in anyway.


Im sure these people are not limited to only 19 miles of evacuation..the western/eastern and southern parts of Japan did not have the tsunami damage (at least I hope so) so Im sure there are other buses in Japan besides the northern part that are still functioning..the roads may be somewhat of an issue but I dont think it enough of an issue that they cant leave..fuel yes, roads, no..
565. flsky
“A human being is part of a whole, called by us the Universe, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”
- Albert Einstein
I have been examining the coastline impacted from the EQ in Japan on Google earth and others. You can do the same on Google earth.

It is quite telling with respect to coastline, fluid dynamics and location, location , location. It is similar to a storm surge with a different kind of storm, but different. We shall learn much from this on many fronts. Check it for yourself.

I just hope the 5+ aftershocks stop soon. This has never happened for so long or strong that I can find in any records. Scary stuff for sure. Let's hope there is no next~ !

Sorry no links available with a dynamic interface site, you will have to drill for it/

In a situation as such, anyone would have been helpless! Fortunately, they were as prepared as anyone could have been. Still, we face the consequences of life on the pale blue dot/







Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm since everyone is brainwashed with the Japanese natrual disaster/reacter melt down I shall return in about a weeks time or.....in 2 months time...
i think ya may want to stick around the main coarse is coming up next
568. P451
So all four reactors are compromised. It's obvious at least one if not all four are melting down. It won't be long until all attempts to cool them will stop if anything from the unfortunate deaths of those left there to try. Then all four will go into runaway meltdowns and breach all remaining containment. It appears at least #2 has already done so.

Wind for the next 24 hours is NE and gusty sending fallout right back into Japan possibly affecting Tokyo even. Got to hope that those plants hold on at least until the wind shifts back out to sea.

This is absolutely terrible. What else is there to say.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think ya may want to stick around the main coarse is coming up next


I hope this is not the main coarse your saying.

Japan reactor fire releases radiation

A FIRE is burning at the No.4 nuclear reactor at Japan's stricken Fukushima No. 1 power plant, Prime Minister Naoto Kan confirmed today, warning that dangerously high levels of radiation are leaking from the area.

Delivering a message to the nation, Kan said people within a 20km radius of the plant should evacuate, while those a further 10km away should keep indoors and shut windows.

Authorities said they were doing everything possible to extinguish the fire at the No.4 reactor as the crisis engulfing the nation's nuclear industry following Friday's 9.0-magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami worsens.

The blaze comes after explosions at the No.1 and No.3 reactors at the Fukushima plant, which is about 240km north of Tokyo, over the weekend, and a further blast at the No.2 reactor this morning.

"Radiation has spread from these reactors and the level seems very high," Mr Kan warned, with officials confirming the levels posed a threat to human health.
Mr Kan said people still working at the plant were putting themselves in a very dangerous situation in a bid to stop any more explosions or leaking of radiation.

"I would like to ask the nation - although this is an incident of great concern - I request that you act very calmly," he said.

Earlier, officials confirmed a blast had hit the No.2 reactor at 6.10am local time today.

The explosion was described as "huge" by a spokesman for the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and workers were evacuated from the reactor area, according to the Jiji news agency.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The problem is, these reactors have probably overheated passed the ability to be cooled and stabilized. That fire is a result of Nuclear meltdown.



It's just a big friggin mess. #4 being out of commission and all. I'd have to say though, keeping 4 reactors in check, kinda, with the available resources in the area is rather remarkable.
The crud has just hit the fan in Fukushima. Full details here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm since everyone is brainwashed with the Japanese natrual disaster/reacter melt down I shall return in about a weeks time or.....in 2 months time...
If your going to insult people, do it with correct spelling at the very least.
Quoting doorman79:


Don't think for one minute that a stock exchange cares about any lives. Maybe the loss of productivity from them, but not the people. That being said, ain't it funny how someone across the world can lose money cause people elsewhere lost their lives? I would be willing to bet they are trying to find ways to invest in funeral homes.

It's not just people around the world losing money. It's people all over the world, even if you don't have a single share of stock. Markets could ripple effect down all across the world. That effects all of us as it trickles down. The losses always trickle down to all, but the gains yield no benefit to all.
.
.
In any case, that's a side issue, a potentially serious side issue, but still just that for now. The main concern right now is obviously human and environmental radiation damage.
Fire at No.4 reactor apparently put out: Tokyo Electric (12:04)
575. P451
It's pretty much hopeless to stop this now.

=============

Japan's chief government spokesman Yukio Edano said night that a meltdown was "highly likely" at three of the plant's nuclear reactors on the country's shattered northeastern coast, the Kyodo news agency reported.





14-17% of Japanese homes have earthquake insurance according to CNN. Many of these homes will never be re-built. The suffering will last a long time.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
It's not just people around the world losing money. It's people all over the world, even if you don't have a single share of stock. Markets could ripple effect down all across the world. That effects all of us as it trickles down. The losses always trickle down to all, but the gains yield no benefit to all.
.
.
In any case, that's a side issue, a potentially serious side issue, but still just that for now. The main concern right now is obviously human and environmental radiation damage.


Trickle down= get on your knees and beg. G.E. made their money, the power company made theirs, now the people have to suffer. Like I said, what ma nature won't take, man will!
Quoting jwh250:
Fire at No.4 reactor apparently put out: Tokyo Electric (12:04)


Well that could be good news...link?
I wonder. Are the worker's hazmat suits lined with like lead foil or something?

Is this a suicide mission for those 50 people remaining behind at this point?
these reactors have 6 feet of containment. Alll radiation will be contained. This is no Chernobyl..

Filsky, I have been filtering you for quie awhile. You're intolerant.
Another thing, wasn't this whole thing caused by the back up generators being flooded? Why weren't the generators above sea level? Japan is in an earthquake zone, and a small island. Shouldn't they have thought of that?
Oh this should send some people on here nuts... anyone want to buy some Kelp tablets?

#
0337: A low level radioactive wind could reach Tokyo in 10 hours, Reuters is quoting the French embassy in the Japanese capital as saying.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
these reactors have 6 feet of containment. Alll radiation will be contained. This is no Chernobyl..

Filsky, I have been filtering you for quie awhile. You're intolerant.


1 of the reactors has already breached the containment. it would only take a good earthquake again to cause major problems very fast
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
these reactors have 6 feet of containment. Alll radiation will be contained. This is no Chernobyl..

Filsky, I have been filtering you for quie awhile. You're intolerant.

Seems like some is not contained....
Quoting doorman79:
Another thing, wasn't this whole thing caused by the back up generators being flooded? Why weren't the generators above sea level? Japan is in an earthquake zone, and a small island. Shouldn't they have thought of that?


they where above sea level think... 33 ft tsunami wave
SOMA, Japan — Japan's nuclear safety agency says a fire in a reactor at a crippled nuclear power plant in tsunami-ravaged northeastern Japan has been extinguished.

source: AP Link
Ok when you vent a reactor to the open air, even under the best circumstances the containment really doesn't matter. even if there was a complete meltdown and containment failure the important thing would be the radioactive material released to the atmosphere.

Not the hot goo puddle itself.

No one would be close to that. It would be the off gassing and particle release that mattered.
Quoting doorman79:
Another thing, wasn't this whole thing caused by the back up generators being flooded? Why weren't the generators above sea level? Japan is in an earthquake zone, and a small island. Shouldn't they have thought of that?


Thats like saying NOLA is below sea level, and in a Hurricane zone.. shouldn't they have thought of that?
11.31am There is an increasing view that we are watching the second-worst nuclear accident in history, after Chernobyl. The UK Telegraph says today the third blast raises the spectre of a nuclear nightmare. An excerpt from that story:

The Fukushima crisis now rates as a more serious accident than the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island in the US in 1979, and is second only to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, according to the French nuclear safety authority. After insisting for three days that the situation was under control, Japan urgently appealed to US and UN nuclear experts for technical help on preventing white-hot fuel rods melting.

And this just in: the radiation level at Fukushima rose to 8217 micro sievert per hour for a short period this morning. This is more than eight times the 1000 micro sievert level to which people are normally exposed in a year.

As a result, people in the surrounding area will likely suffer radiation sickness, and there have been reports that the people working at the plant to try and solve the problem of the exposed rods have been showing symptoms. The main risk with radiation sickness is infections because the body has trouble fighting off germs, and longer term there is a greatly increased risk of developing various cancers. Many people who get radiation sickness can survive, however.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GdWnjXB w
593. JRRP


You did not get this from me.

I was never here.

NBC Training USMC


(f) IPE Employment. Commanders and NBC personnel
must consider heat stress created while wearing IPE, especially
during hot weather. An adequate water supply must be made
available at the exercise site and personnel are encouraged to
drink plenty of water prior to, during, and after the exercise.
(g) Wearing of contact lenses while training with CS
agents is prohibited. Individuals who normally wear contact
lenses must remove them and use properly fitted optical inserts.
(h) A safety vehicle equipped with sufficient
communications and medical equipment, and with a
nonparticipating driver and Corpsman familiar with the effects
of CS and heat stress, will be present during the exercise. To
prevent personal contamination, the Corpsman must be equipped to
be able to don his/her mask and gloves when treating and
transporting casualties. The Corpsman must don his/her field
protective mask and IPE prior to rendering assistance to a
casualty in the chamber. The driver must exercise caution to
avoid becoming contaminated during transport of casualty.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
SOMA, Japan — Japan's nuclear safety agency says a fire in a reactor at a crippled nuclear power plant in tsunami-ravaged northeastern Japan has been extinguished.

source: AP Link


"Japan's nuclear safety agency says a fire in a reactor at a crippled nuclear power plant in tsunami-ravaged northeastern Japan has been extinguished."

I don't think the fire was in the reactor of #4.
The way its going. Probably a good many working at that plant now in good faith to fix this are going to die. Like at Chernobyl. We should be serious and respectful here.

How a Reactor Shuts Down and What Happens in a Meltdown
The operating reactors at Fukushima Daiichi power station automatically shut down during the earthquake.

But after subsequent cooling failures, two of them went into partial meltdown.

Link
Quoting Patrap:


inception? are we all in a dream?

Speed / Dir15 mph from NE

Thanks, Dr. Jeff for the reassurances. There is so much speculation from folks who know little to nothing about predicting weather. We continue to pray for those in the control rooms of the nuc plants in Japan and for the technicians trying to make a go of cooling those rods.

As we live near a nuc plant in the states (my hubby works there), I know firsthand how often the news media reports happening at the plant incorrectly. Sometimes they just make up something complete different from any press releases! I can imagine this is multiplied by the high level of coverage and the desire to keep folks in Japan from panicking.

Again, thanks for the voice of reason, Dr. Jeff!

Theresa 8-)
601. flsky
An onsite account from locals.
Link
I'm listening to the NHK broadcast and still have heard nothing about the fire at #4 being put out, in fact they just reinforced the fact that it is on fire. They need to get everyone out of that area asap, there's nothing they can do now.
#
0402: Higher than normal radiation levels are detected in Tokyo, the AFP is quoting the city government as saying.
Quoting sunlinepr:
How a Reactor Shuts Down and What Happens in a Meltdown
The operating reactors at Fukushima Daiichi power station automatically shut down during the earthquake.

But after subsequent cooling failures, two of them went into partial meltdown.

Link


As I said earlier, I am skeptical whether they were ever "actually" shut down.

Just because a gauge or sensor says they successfully shut down doesn't mean it actually happened. The gauges and other shutdown mechanisms could have been damaged in the original quake.

Had the control rods actually been inserted, the chain reaction should have stopped and all they should be dealing with was residual heat.

Instead, we continue to see exposed rods which had previously been under water, and then exposed again, and partial melting. If it was just residual heat, the rods temperature would not increase just because of having less water available. An increase in temperature is indicative that the nuclear chain reaction has continued, even though the sensors/gauges claim the reactors have been stopped. Not only is the original heat not being dissipated, but the reactions have never actually stopped in the first place, otherwise, the temperature would not increase just because you had less water available.

If you turn off the eye on a stove, the temperature doesn't go up. Same principle here. If the reaction had ever stopped, the temperature should stay the same or go down, even if the water cooling situation was less than ideal.

To me, I continue to believe the control rods were damaged in the original quake, and have never been inserted properly.
I'm still relatively new at interpreting these model forecast maps, but it looks like the GFS is predicting predominantly onshore winds in the Fukushima vicinity for at least 24 hours before winds swing around to blow offshore again.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats like saying NOLA is below sea level, and in a Hurricane zone.. shouldn't they have thought of that?


Yes they should have, Sorry Pat!
The only problem with nuclear fuel rods is that they continue to generate heat even when in the "off" position. They continuously need to be cooled, even the spent rods. This is why #4 is up in flames, because each blast was powerful enough to take out the cooling systems of adjacent buildings. Without a constant flow of coolant, heat will continue to build. That is why I said they need to get out asap, there's no more point..
Quoting MrMixon:
I'm still relatively new at interpreting these model forecast maps, but it looks like the GFS is predicting predominantly onshore winds in the Fukushima vicinity for at least 24 hours before winds swing around to blow offshore again.


Correct... and snow starting Wend.
#0408: However, a Tokyo government officials says the radiation levels in the city are not seen as harmful to human health, the AFP adds.

#0402: Higher than normal radiation levels are detected in Tokyo, the AFP is quoting the city government as saying.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they where above sea level think... 33 ft tsunami wave


Think.... Whats the first thing that comes after an earthquake on a tiny island! I know, a tsunami! Do I get a cookie! And to think, I never built a nuclear power plant. WOW!
Excerpt from LA Times article published 1 hr. ago:

In a nationally televised speech, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said the radiation level spreading from the plant "seems very high, and there is still a risk of more radiation coming out."

Kan said 400 millisieverts of radiation were detected at the plant at about 10:30. That is 20 times the amount a radiation worker may be exposed to annually.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said, "Now we are talking about levels that can damage human health. These are readings taken near the area where we believe the releases are happening. Far away, the levels should be lower."

To further complicate the situation, the prevailing winds have shifted and are no longer blowing offshore, but are now wafting the radioactivity in a southerly direction toward Tokyo. The French Embassy said the plume should reach that city in about 10 hours, but unless the radiation release increases substantially, experts believe it will be sufficiently diluted by then to not present a problem.

thomas.maugh@latimes.com

Times staff writer Ralph Vartabedian and Times news services contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2011, Los Angeles Times

LinktoLATimesStory
607 - I think too that even in a partial meltdown the control mechanisms like control rods and water are rendered somewhat ineffective as the fuel coalesces/accumulates where it falls or collects in a molten puddle. These reactors could stay hot for some time.


Corium
Quoting doorman79:


Think.... Whats the first thing that comes after an earthquake! I know, a tsunami! Do I get a cookie! And to think, I never built a nuclear power plant. WOW!


You have to remember though they have never had a 8.9 earthquake ... they did not expect to get one that strong.
Quoting MrMixon:
I'm still relatively new at interpreting these model forecast maps, but it looks like the GFS is predicting predominantly onshore winds in the Fukushima vicinity for at least 24 hours before winds swing around to blow offshore again.
Quoting alfabob:
The only problem with nuclear fuel rods is that they continue to generate heat even when in the "off" position. They continuously need to be cooled, even the spent rods. This is why #4 is up in flames, because each blast was powerful enough to take out the cooling systems of adjacent buildings. Without a constant flow of coolant, heat will continue to build. That is why I said they need to get out asap, there's no more point..


Yeah, but the control rods are SUPPOSED to block the particles from one fuel rod hitting the next, which causes the chain reaction.


the fuel rods are normally close enough together to make a chain reaction, but obviously nowhere near enough density to make a bomb.

They insert control rods to block the particles and stop the chain reaction, but this doesn't stop the "natural" half-life of fuel source in individual rods, but they half-life of uranium and plutonium are so high that their "natural" decay should be nearly insiginificant once the control rods are in place.

The half-life of uranium 235 is over 700 million years, so under normal circumstances, individual fuel rods should not make much heat once the control rods are inserted. Certainly not enough to continually boil thousands and thousands of gallons of water...
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


You have to remember though they have never had a 8.9 earthquake ... they did not expect to get one that strong.


Well you aren't talking about flooding here, you are talking about deformed children and people that will suffer pain that was only supposed to come from hell. I think I would rather drown then suffer the results of nuclear radiation.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


You have to remember though they have never had a 8.9 earthquake ... they did not expect to get one that strong.


Friday's earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Kyodo News agency reported Sunday.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thanks Keeper A moment or two of tranquility was needed in lieu of the worldly problems that seem to be mounting daily.
Anyway, goodnight all.

Maybe will get some good news in the morning :)
Upgrade from CBS News
Quoting auburn:


Friday's earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Kyodo News agency reported Sunday.


thats right I keep forgetting
Nuclear Disaster 'Will Have Political Impact as Great as 9/11

The nuclear accident at Japan's Fukushima plant following Friday's earthquake and tsunami has led to anxious questions in Germany about the safety of its own nuclear reactors and is putting the government under intense pressure to rethink its decision to extend plant lifetimes by an average of 12 years.

German media commentators across the political spectrum are saying the accident in a highly developed nation such as Japan is further evidence that nuclear power isn't safe. One commentator in the conservative Die Welt went as far as to liken the global impact of the Fukushima explosions to that of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Link
Quoting rikster:


Thanks Keeper A moment or two of tranquility was needed in lieu of the worldly problems that seem to be mounting daily.


Keep Rocks!
Quoting auburn:


Friday's earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Kyodo News agency reported Sunday.
i believe in the long term it will be determined to have been a 9.1
Quoting RecordSeason:


Yeah, but the control rods are SUPPOSED to block the particles from one fuel rod hitting the next, which causes the chain reaction.


the fuel rods are normally close enough together to make a chain reaction, but obviously nowhere near enough density to make a bomb.

They insert control rods to block the particles and stop the chain reaction, but this doesn't stop the "natural" half-life of fuel source in individual rods, but they half-life of uranium and plutonium are so high that their "natural" decay should be nearly insiginificant once the control rods are in place.

The half-life of uranium 235 is over 700 million years, so under normal circumstances, individual fuel rods should not make much heat once the control rods are inserted. Certainly not enough to continually boil thousands and thousands of gallons of water...


Nuclear power is extremely powerful in terms of energy density. These plants are designed to include a flowing coolant in the calculation of "control rods". When the coolant is not circulating and constantly cooled, even in a reactor loaded with fuel in the "off" position; heat will build regardless. If you want to know how long this time is in reality then this incident is a perfect example. When the earthquake, aftershocks and each facilities explosion are taken into account, it is obvious what happened.
They will try to keep water on the fuel and in the containment vessels and I hope they are successful. This article illustrates the possibilities of a full meltdown:

Corium

is a lava-like molten mixture of portions of nuclear reactor core, formed during a nuclear meltdown, the most severe class of a nuclear reactor accident. It consists of nuclear fuel, control rods, structural materials from the affected parts of the reactor, products of their chemical reaction with air, water and steam, and, in case the reactor vessel is breached, molten concrete from the floor of the reactor room.

During the interaction between corium and concrete, very high temperatures can be achieved. Less volatile aerosols of Ba, Ce, La, Sr, and other fission products are formed during this phase and introduced into the containment building at time when most of early aerosols is already deposited. Tellurium is released with progress of zirconium telluride decomposition. Bubbles of gas flowing through the melt promote aerosol formation.



This is an iconic picture of a lava flow from within the Chernobyl plant. This picture has been modified to have dark lines around the edges of the lava flow and at "dripping" locations to make it look more like lava and more distinct from the background.

1. Fuel lava (aka FCM)
2. Concrete
3. "steam dump".This is the pipe node to dump extremely high pressure steam out of the hot reactor core.
4. Capacitor


During the Three Mile Island accident, slow partial meltdown of the reactor core occurred. About 19,000 kilograms of material melted and relocated during about 2 minutes, about 224 minutes after the reactor scram. A pool of corium formed at the bottom of the reactor vessel, but the reactor vessel was not breached. The layer of solidified corium ranged in thickness from 5 to 45 cm.
They are saying that reactors 1 and 4 were on fire, and that the fire at 4 is no longer contained by a building.. doesn't sound good.
The latest from the IAEA.....for what's its worth....I don't know anymore :/

Link
Listening to NHK world, in English.. this doesn't sound good at all. Praying for a good outcome, but it just doesn't seem likely.
The sievert (symbol: Sv) is the SI derived unit of dose equivalent. It attempts to quantitatively evaluate the biological effects of radiation as opposed to the physical aspects, which are characterised by the absorbed dose, measured in gray. It is named after Rolf Sievert, a Swedish medical physicist renowned for work on radiation dosage measurement and research into the biological effects of radiation.
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think there is a video from blasts 3 and 4. No photographer without proper protection would be willing to be there exposing to high radiation and waiting to capture the event....

At least up to this time, no video has appeared...

Any links available??
Quoting JohnTucker:
They will try to keep water on the fuel and in the containment vessels and I hope they are successful. This article illustrates the possibilities of a full meltdown:


Excellent info...
I've been checking for videos; can't find anything. Just CNN news feed, and not much from the Japan news. So, this means, all four reactors have had fires/explosions? I did read on CNN where all workers except for like 50 have been evacuated. My God, where would they go, and what shape will they be in when they get there? And the ones that are left? I can only imagine in my wildest dreams what those workers are going through. Godspeed to them.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think there is a video from blasts 3 and 4. No photographer without proper protection would be willing to be there waiting to capture the event....

At least up to this time, no video has appeared...

Any links available??
its a safe bet we are done with anymore of anyone showing anything this will be all verbal till whomever is reporting the progress can not report it anymore trust me you have to stay a minimum of 10 miles away and even then may not be wise in the end may have to pull back 50 miles its up to the wind
You know, hindsight is always 20-20, but considering that plate tectonics wasn't accepted by most geologists as a FACT until the early 1960's when the concept of sea floor spread and continental drift were taken to their logical conclusions and the construction of reactors 1-4 at Fukushima started between 1967 - 1973, perhaps they felt AT THAT TIME that their system redundancies shielded the plant very well. They withstood many, many earthquakes since they were built - until now.

It isn't necessarily a failure of planning as much as it is a failure of imagination, an inability to rationally accept the idea that something of this magnitude could and would happen and then build for it.

The Pacific Northwest could have a great quake of 9.0 as the Juan de Fuca plate is subducting below the North American plate and hasn't moved substantially since 1700, but even that wasn't accepted as a possibility within the scientific community until the mid-1990's. Now, after the Indonesian quake/tsunami of 2004, we have tsunami warning sirens and designated escape routes from the coastal communities to higher ground. The system might give residents a small chance of getting out of the way of a tsunami now. Before 2004, though, if we'd had our "big one" no one would have known what to do.

My point is, we build on our knowledge bit by bit, piece by piece, hopefully making things better as we go along. And it's manifestly unfair to criticize people of 40 years ago for not utilizing knowledge they didn't have to prepare for something they couldn't imagine.

Just my $0.02, FWIW.
How long would it take to get a satellite photo of anything at the reactors?
639:

What gets me is they have known since Chile that 9.0 to 9.5 quakes can and do happen, and more recently the indonesia quake and the 8.8 quake again in Chile...

Yet every episode of "it can happen tomorrow" and similar shows only ever seemed to address the idea of 7.5 to 8.0 quakes hitting Japan or Oregon, etc. I was always like, "What the heck are they planning for "only" a 7.5 when they already KNOW a 9.5 has happened in the past?

Why is everything in the world made to withstand a 7.5 or 8.0, instead of a 9.6, seeing as how a 9.5 has actually been observed in the past?

BTW, Chile's 9.5 would have been ~5.66 times more powerful than Japan's 9.0 quake... The Indonesia quake was around 2.83 times as powerful as this 9.0 quake.


So the reality is a far, far more powerful quake, almost an order of magnitude stronger, HAS been observed within the past 55 years, before these reactors were made...engineers and governments just totally ignored this fact in their planning, as if they didn't know or didn't care it could happen.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its a safe bet we are done with anymore of anyone showing anything this will be all verbal till whomever is reporting the progress can not report it anymore trust me you have to stay a minimum of 10 miles away and even then may not be wise in the end may have to pull back 50 miles its up to the wind


So it seems We'll have to wait for a Satellite photo of the area....
Quoting Seawall:
How long would it take to get a satellite photo of anything at the reactors?


Link

Quoting MrstormX:
I think people suddenly freaking out about nuclear fission power across the U.S. and World is silly. Fukushima should teach lessons about engineering, and general mechanics which can be deployed on a global skill.

Nuclear Fission is safe when the right measures are taken, and more plants need to be built. When you think of oil and coal, and how they have been destroying the environment for decades; id rather have a clean safe Nuclear Plant any day.

_________________________________________________

Very well stated. We learned enough to build safe reactors from the Cherbynol (sp) and TMI disasters that nothing like that can ever happen again. Just like the oil industry has learned to drill safe deep water wells without having any more blown wells. Yes. Very well stated indeed! We needed the comic relief. What other jokes do you know?

I apologize for the sarcastic remark, but we do not yet know the full extent of this event and you wish to offer to us an, "all clear!"? Based on what?

Situation Update No. 29
On 15.03.2011 at 04:34 GMT 2

This event should be changed in classification from INES 4 to INES 5.

Reasons:
- External release of radioactive material (in quantities radiologically equivalent to the order of hundreds to thousands of terabecquerels of iodine-131). Such a release would be likely to result in partial implementation of countermeasures covered by emergency plans to lessen the likelihood of health effects.
- Severe damage to the installation. This may involve severe damage to a large fraction of the core of a power reactor, a major criticality accident or a major fire or explosion releasing large quantities of radioactivity within the installation.
I am speechless over all this...and helpless...
Weather agency warns of huge aftershock

Japan's Meteorological Agency has warned of a major aftershock within the next 3 days.

Agency officials told reporters that aftershocks with an intensity of 5 and over on the Japanese scale of zero to seven have been registered nearly 200 times since Friday, when northeastern Japan was rocked by a record earthquake.

The epicenters of the jolts cover an area 500 kilometers north to south, between the coasts of Iwate and Ibaraki, and 200 kilometers west to east.

Agency expert Takashi Yokota said the likelihood of a tremor measuring five or over within the next 3 days remains at 40 percent.

He said that if the focus is close to the epicenter of the initial earthquake, the aftershock may be from six minus to six plus and may trigger a tsunami.

Monday, March 14, 2011 17:44 0900 (JST)
How much radiation is dangerous?
Tuesday, March 15 05:05 am

(Reuters) - Japan asked local governments to make more frequent radiation checks after explosions at two nuclear reactors, with reports of radiation levels nine times normal briefly detected in Kanagawa near Tokyo. Below are some facts about the health dangers posed by higher radiation levels.

* Chief cabinet minister Yukio Edano said radiation levels near the stricken plant on the northeast coast reached as high as 400 millisieverts (mSv) an hour, thousands of times higher than readings before the blast. That would be 20 times the current yearly level for some nuclear-industry employees and uranium miners.

* Exposure to 350 mSv was the criterion for relocating people after the Chernobyl accident, according to the World Nuclear Association.

* People are exposed to natural radiation of about 2 mSv a year.

* Airline crew flying the New York-Tokyo polar route are exposed to 9 mSv a year.

* Exposure to 100 mSv a year is the lowest level at which any increase in cancer is clearly evident. A cumulative 1,000 mSv would probably cause a fatal cancer many years later in five out of every 100 persons exposed to it.

*A single 1,000 mSv dose causes radiation sickness such as nausea but not death. A single does of 5,000 mSv would kill about half of those exposed to it within a month.

*"Very acute radiation, like that which happened in Chernobyl and to the Japanese workers at the nuclear power station, is unlikely for the population," said Lam Ching-wan, a chemical pathologist at the university of Hong Kong.

Source: the World Nuclear Association
Tropics are waking up.. a copy & paste from my updated blog.

Navy link isn't working for me..

Doesn't look like the front will bring much to ECFL. Nice ring aroun the moon tonight makes me want to hope.

Nite ya'll.

Atlantic
90Q


Indian Ocean
92B


Southern Hemisphere

98S


Quoting Skyepony:
Tropics are waking up.. a copy & paste from my updated blog. Nite ya'll.


4.39pm NHK has reported the official death toll as 2476, with 17,000 missing.

Good nite....

Sleepy time for me also...
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20102011
10:00 AM RET March 15 2011
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 7 (1002 hPa) located at 13.0S 84.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.9S 82.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.1S 81.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.9S 76.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 15.4S 73.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Recent METEOSAT7 pictures shows a partially exposed low level vortex centered southeast from the main convective activity. ASCAT 0412z swath confirms that maximum winds should locally reach near gale force winds but also shows that low level circulation remains elongated. The easterly vertical wind shear is not expected to significantly weaken within the next 24 hours.

It should then progressively decrease allowing the system to deepen significantly. Available numerical weather prediction models remains in a rather good agreement for a west southwestward track within the next days.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Asian markets a sea of red, with Japan's Nikkei off 10.6% on top of yesterday's 6.2% drop. Hong Kong and Taiwan are off over 3%.

Dow futures are off nearly 2%. Further deterioration is a definite possibility, particularly if European investors head for the door.

The US dollar is up, as are Treasuries, as investors seek shelter in US Government guaranteed securities. Commodities are off, reflecting lowered expectations for global growth and an unwinding of speculative long positions.

This may turn out to be a tipping point for equities. Expect some volatility this week. Friday is witching day for futures.

I simply cannot believe that what is apparently happening is actually happening. My mind has not accepted it yet. The strategy that seems to be left at this point is hope, and I pray that isn't in for too much of a dashing. How unimaginably, inconceivably tragic. May God look kindly on our folly.

WTO
There is a fire at a spent fuel pond of a reactor and radioactivity has been released into the atmosphere, says the IAEA according to AFP news agency.
Link

Regarding the danger of spent fuel ponds, this gives an idea: blogs.forbes.com --- "The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago."

Link
This does not sound good at all...
I was just on the BBC site where they just posted this...

"0709: There is a fire at a spent fuel pond of a reactor and radioactivity has been released into the atmosphere, says the IAEA according to AFP news agency.

I read that, then went back to page here I was reading (the BBC link was the post I had been looking at), and this was *the very next* post I read, from 18 hours ago.

Quoting sunlinepr:
A disturbing detail recently posted is that in these Mark I reactors, the spent fuel pool is inside the reactor building. If there's substantial contamination from reactor venting (or a leak in the reactor vessel), it therefore becomes impossible to be there to keep cooling the pools with firehoses or other improvised means. This could threaten a melt or burn of the spent fuel if it dried out -- and the spent fuel contains far more radioactivity than the reactor core..

1820: The French ASN nuclear safety authority says the incident at the Fukushima plant could be classed as level 5 or 6 on the international scale of 1 to 7. It is currently rated at level 4.


Scary kismet, and apparently a great "call" or concern by sunlinepr...

Jo :(
A good summary of today's (Tuesday's) events in Japan, from the live blog at:

ABC.net.au

Read the whole NYT article I posted in 654. Its something that is easy to prevent but potentially horribly catastrophic.

I wonder if any other sites experienced coolant loss/reduction on their spent fuel.
Quoting TxKeef:
There is a fire at a spent fuel pond of a reactor and radioactivity has been released into the atmosphere, says the IAEA according to AFP news agency.
Link

Regarding the danger of spent fuel ponds, this gives an idea: blogs.forbes.com --- "The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago."

Link


It is getting worse with each new report that rolls in.
664 Look at the direction that "steam" is blowing.
Yes, I was noticing that, what a terrible development.
the exclusion zone now encompasses approximately 1100 square miles (60km diameter).
Yes, winds will be mostly inland for the next 20ish hours.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
664 Look at the direction that "steam" is blowing.
669. wial
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


You have to remember though they have never had a 8.9 earthquake ... they did not expect to get one that strong.


Even though they happen and have happened more than once in recent years.

Real good.
Quoting MrMixon:
Yes, winds will be mostly inland for the next 20ish hours.



From the east at 10 mph in Tokyo at the moment. Rain is in the forecast for the coming days.

Edit: from Stratfor.com

"The situation at the nuclear facility is uncertain, but clearly deteriorating. Currently, the radiation levels do not appear immediately life-threatening outside the 20km evacuation zone. But if there is a steady northerly wind, the potential for larger-scale evacuations of more populated areas may become a reality. This would present major challenges to the Japanese government. Further, the potential for panic-induced individual evacuations could trigger even greater problems for the government to manage."


from metro.tokyo.jp:

Population of Tokyo
Population Summary

As of October 1, 2009, the population of Tokyo is estimated to be 12.989 million, or about 10% of Japan's total population, and it has the largest population among all the 47 prefectures.

At 2,188 square kilometers, the area of Tokyo is 0.6% of the total area of Japan. With a population density of 5,937 persons per square kilometer, Tokyo is the most densely populated prefecture in Japan.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
the exclusion zone now encompasses approximately 1100 square miles (60km diameter).


More accurately, the "stay inside" zone. There is also a no-fly zone extending 20km out from the plant.
They're telling everyone within a 100 kms of the plant not to go outside in the rain now. God...

Jo
Quoting flibinite:
They're telling everyone within a 100 kms of the plant not to go outside in the rain now. God...

Jo


Black rain. What next? It's becoming a Kurosawa film, except it's actually happening.
Kari Kiefer's forecast from the Tokyo page on WU.

Weather Underground Forecast for Tuesday, March 15, 2011.

The low pressure system affecting Hokkaido and the southern Kuril islands will lift northeastward Tuesday, allowing for a brief window of dry weather for Hokkaido. As this system exits, another complex low pressure system will take shape over Honshu and the nearby western Pacific Ocean during the afternoon. As this system gathers, wrap around will pull moisture across Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. This will lead to increased cloud cover and light scattered showers. Scattered showers will spread inland through the evening and will likely dampen the rescue and cleanup effort. Temperatures across the isles will be cooler Tuesday. Tokyo will reach a daytime high of 53(F)/12(C), while Okinawa reaches a high of 68(F)/20(C). This cooling trend will continue through the mid-week.
Japan has told the IAEA it has extinguished a fire at the spent fuel storage pond of a reactor in Fukushima, Reuters says.

Thank god for small favors.

Jo
Quoting flibinite:
Japan has told the IAEA it has extinguished a fire at the spent fuel storage pond of a reactor in Fukushima, Reuters says.

Thank god for small favors.

Jo


Hope it stays out.

Night is falling over northern Japan, and the winds are forecast to start shifting inland right about now. They seem to be running 8 to 10 mph in the area. Winds in Tokyo now out of the ENE.
URGENT: Fukushima's spent nuke fuel pool may be boiling, reducing water level

Water in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel at the No. 4 reactor that caught fire Tuesday morning at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant may be boiling, causing the water level to drop, an official of Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

The reactor was not in service when a magnitude 9.0 earthquake jolted Fukushima Prefecture and other areas in northeastern Japan on Friday, the official in charge of the facility said.


And here I was hoping to wake up to better newsd...
Another discouraging read from the NY Times ... this time about the

exposed spent fuel pools

a tidbit:

"“I’m still hopeful that they can contain all this,” Thomas B. Cochran, a senior scientist in the nuclear program of the Natural Resources Defense Council, a private group in Washington, said in an interview. “You’ve got time to put fire hoses up there and get it filled if it’s not leaking,” he said of the pool."

Pray for the 50 brave workers who remain at the plant trying to get this monster under control (800 have been evac'd).

WTO
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Animation of Japan aftershocks on msnbc.msn.com ... it's nicely done


it is nicely done. Thanks.
Estimates are now that property damage will exceed $160 billion, substantially higher than that for Katrina ($123 billion).

Incredible...
Quoting Neapolitan:
URGENT: Fukushima's spent nuke fuel pool may be boiling, reducing water level

Water in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel at the No. 4 reactor that caught fire Tuesday morning at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant may be boiling, causing the water level to drop, an official of Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

The reactor was not in service when a magnitude 9.0 earthquake jolted Fukushima Prefecture and other areas in northeastern Japan on Friday, the official in charge of the facility said.


And here I was hoping to wake up to better newsd...


4am in Fla? You wake up early. But yeah, when I woke up CNN had a 'breaking news' headline that said the radioactivity levels went down. It was really nice. Then it disapeared and now it's all bad news.

This sucks. The only silver lining is that maybe the people on the bottom of the anti-regulation pyramid will see how much this costs in human lives as well as in monetary terms and finally understand that regulation increases productivity.
Developing TS in the Southern Atlantic..
Quoting greentortuloni:
The only silver lining is that maybe the people on the bottom of the anti-regulation will see how much this costs in human lives as well as in monetary terms and finally understand that regulation increases productivity.

Oh, if only it would work that way. The Wall Street Journal yesterday ran an article that stated:

"Our view is that [nuclear power] should compete with other sources on a market basis, without subsidies or government loan guarantees. Every energy source has risks and economic externalities, whether they are noise and bird kills (wind), huge land requirements (solar), rig explosions and tanker spills (oil), or mining accidents (coal).

"But more than other energy sources, nuclear plants have had their costs increased by artificial political obstacles and delay."


So there you have it: the cancers and cellular mutations and other long-term biological hazards of nuclear radiation are no different than wind farms killing birds, or solar plants using up precious land. :-\

Just as the Deepwater Horizon debacle illogically brought an onslaught of calls for less regulation of offshore drilling, I was certain there'd be an equal outcry from industry proponents of nuclear. And now we have it...
Name it, either the one in the South Atlantic or the one in the Pacifc, we haven't had a storm in so long
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Developing TS in the Southern Atlantic..

Yes, I would say we'll see a TD later today...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, if only it would work that way. The Wall Street Journal yesterday ran an article that stated:

"Our view is that [nuclear power] should compete with other sources on a market basis, without subsidies or government loan guarantees. Every energy source has risks and economic externalities, whether they are noise and bird kills (wind), huge land requirements (solar), rig explosions and tanker spills (oil), or mining accidents (coal).

"But more than other energy sources, nuclear plants have had their costs increased by artificial political obstacles and delay."

So there you have it: the cancers and cellular mutations and other long-term biological hazards of nuclear radiation are no different than wind farms killing birds, or solar plants using up precious land. :-\

Just as the Deepwater Horizon debacle illogically brought an onslaught of calls for less regulation of offshore drilling, I was certain there'd be an equal outcry from industry proponents of nuclear. And now we have it...


In my previous career I was a civil engineer. we did a lot of work in third world countries. It was always a battle to enforce the safety standards that our insurance companies required. But in every case, after a few months of struggle, everyone used them. Further, they habits became standard on other sites as well.

Of course, we never were small fry and had to work with local bureacrats rather than buy their bosses. But even when I went to work with a very large multinational, safety was considered part of our competitive advantage for direct costs (lower insurance rates) but also for moral and professionalism of us in the rank and file.
Another 6.0 aftershock off of Sendai:

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.348N, 142.406E
Magnitude: 6.0 M
Depth: 15 km
Universal Time (UTC): 15 Mar 2011 09:49:54
Time near the Epicenter: 15 Mar 2011 18:49:54
Local standard time in your area: 15 Mar 2011 04:49:54

Location with respect to nearby cities:
137 km (85 miles) ENE (76 degrees) of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
167 km (104 miles) SE (126 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
176 km (110 miles) ESE (103 degrees) of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
302 km (188 miles) NE (51 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan
see pictures of those nuck technicians going into toxic area they have the look of fear in the photos. maybe martyrs
On the aftershock animation... they had something similar for the Christchurch earthquake, but not as sophisticated. Certainly does suggest to me that the crust has not settled yet. Seems like there's a pretty rhythmic vibration going on.

Still holding out hope for some better news about the reactor situation as the day progresses...

Checking in - appreciate ALL the excellent information & explanations folks!!! - somehow I digest it all a bit better here then listening to the TV. Best day possible to all.
Tokyo (CNN) -- U.S. Navy personnel are taking precautionary measures after instruments aboard an aircraft carrier docked in Japan detected low levels of radioactivity from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the Navy said Tuesday.

The USS George Washington was docked for maintenance in Yokosuka, about 175 miles (280 kilometers) from the plant in Okuma, when instruments detected the radiation at 7 a.m. Tuesday (6 p.m. ET Monday), the Navy said in a statement.

Personnel will limit outdoor activities and secure external ventilation systems there and at a nearby air facility in Atsugi.

"There is no appreciable health risk, and we are being very conservative in our recommendations," U.S. Naval Forces Japan Commander Rear Adm. Richard Wren said.

In a recorded video message, Wren said the additional radiation exposure over the past 12 hours had been less than one month's exposure to naturally occurring background radiation.

(From CNN website)
I see that the plant in now at LEVEl 6 Nuclear Emergency, raised from a 4. Also just logged on what is this about reactor #4 burning, or did I just misunderstand what I was reading?


DO NOT OPEN THE LINK posted by TXKeef CITED ABOVE.
I think it contains a virus.
Quoting Chicklit:


Good Morning,
The image is not posted when I click on this link.


maybe, it is nighttime over there? I not awake enough to be coherent. I see nothing also, Chicklit.

New updates? all over the place.
Fukushima Number 4 Reactor on Fire; Radiation Levels Now Dangerous
Posted by Goldy on Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 8:03 PM
Kyodo News and NHK World are both reporting that Fukushima reactor number 4 is on fire. But ignore the category tag, and like Golob said, don't panic; there's no chance of a core meltdown in this reactor, because it was shut down and had no fuel at the time of the earthquake and tsunami.

So how'd it catch on fire? Well, the speculation is that spent fuel stored within the reactor container may have lost coolant, causing a hydrogen explosion, so you know what...? Maybe you should panic a little after all.

No, strike that, as Golob and others have pointed out, there's no chance of this being a Chernobyl-type disaster due to the design of the reactor, so it's not like we should be getting a radioactive cloud heading toward Seattle. Then again, if you're anywhere within 30 kilometers of Fukushima, panic, because the Japanese government is now reporting radiation being detected there at "dangerous levels" of 400 mili sievert and rising.

I see they continue the back and forth reporting of the incident.
Kyodo: Radiation too high for TEPCO personnel to stay in Fukushima nuke plant control rooms (20:49)
Was wondering if anyone this morning had an idea of the wind currents and weather forecast this afternoon/evening (this morning for our time in the US) for Japan?

TIA
The following is the known status as of Tuesday evening for each of the six reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant and the four reactors at the Fukushima No. 2 plant, both in Fukushima Prefecture, crippled by Friday's magnitude 9.0 earthquake and ensuing tsunami.

Fukushima No. 1

-- Reactor No. 1 - Cooling failure, partial melting of core, vapor vented, hydrogen explosion, seawater pumped in.

-- Reactor No. 2 - Cooling failure, seawater pumped in, fuel rods fully exposed temporarily, damage to containment system, potential meltdown feared.

-- Reactor No. 3 - Cooling failure, partial melting of core feared, vapor vented, seawater pumped in, hydrogen explosion, high-level radiation measured nearby.

-- Reactor No. 4 - Under maintenance when quake struck, fire caused possibly by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, pool water levels feared receding.

-- Reactor No. 5 - Under maintenance when quake struck.

-- Reactor No. 6 - Under maintenance when quake struck.

Fukushima No. 2

-- Reactor No. 1 - Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.

-- Reactor No. 2 - Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.

-- Reactor No. 3 - Cold shutdown.

-- Reactor No. 4 - Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
701. srada
Good Morning,

Just watched ABC coverage of the disaster on Japan..they did a story on the 50 workers who have stayed behind to try to prevent a nuclear catastrophe..the unsung heros..
Quoting srada:
Good Morning,

Just watched ABC coverage of the disaster on Japan..they did a story on the 50 workers who have stayed behind to try to prevent a nuclear catastrophe..the unsung heros..

Definitely...but now even some of them will be forced to leave; see comment #698.
That is strange. Now it's gone!
I opened and reposted a link by TXKeef and think it may have held a virus.
thank you Nea

"all the news
quick as a wink
for those like me
who don't wanna think"

(snork, hack, skroonnk)
Deleted for reposting cuz the WU program wouldn't allow editing here
chicklit- I opened it, it seemed safe, just all dark- either way thank you for removing it, if you felt doubtful about it's safety
707. srada
Quoting Neapolitan:

Definitely...but now even some of them will be forced to leave; see comment #698.


there were over 1400 workers there and ABC said this morning that 50 choose to stay behind sacrificing their lives..
Quoting emcf30:
Fukushima Number 4 Reactor on Fire; Radiation Levels Now Dangerous
Posted by Goldy on Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 8:03 PM
Kyodo News and NHK World are both reporting that Fukushima reactor number 4 is on fire. But ignore the category tag, and like Golob said, don't panic; there's no chance of a core meltdown in this reactor, because it was shut down and had no fuel at the time of the earthquake and tsunami.

So how'd it catch on fire? Well, the speculation is that spent fuel stored within the reactor container may have lost coolant, causing a hydrogen explosion, so you know what...? Maybe you should panic a little after all.

No, strike that, as Golob and others have pointed out, there's no chance of this being a Chernobyl-type disaster due to the design of the reactor, so it's not like we should be getting a radioactive cloud heading toward Seattle. Then again, if you're anywhere within 30 kilometers of Fukushima, panic, because the Japanese government is now reporting radiation being detected there at "dangerous levels" of 400 mili sievert and rising.

I see they continue the back and forth reporting of the incident.

As scary this sounds and can get, this can, and will never be a Chernobyl type disaster. I'm not referring to the quantity of the radiation exposure resulting from the leak, but rather HOW it is disseminated into the surrounding environment outside the containment.

The reactor used in the Chernobyl nuclear accident was a RBMK design. It lacked proper containment, which allowed the radioactive material to escape into the environment. The uranium-graphite-water type is inherently unstable. That type of reactor would never have been certified and thus built anywhere else at any other plant. At the worse, there would be much more contamination and radioactivity leaching through the base followed by permeating into the ground, as opposed to being air-lifting many miles into the air by an explosion like at Chernobyl. Thus, the most intense radiation would be concentrated in and relatively adjacent to the plant in Japan.

The threat of the US west coast as well as Hawaii receiving harmful radiation exposures akin to the amounts measured within the 20km radius adjacent to the Fukushima power plant remains very low.
Deleted again for reposting cuz the WU program wouldn't allow editing here
710. Jax82
I tell you what, the news today is extremely depressing. Just going to cnn or fox news and just reading the headlines, whether its the earthquake videos, nuclear fallout or middle east conflict, or stock markets tanking there is just nothing positive going on out there, or at least not reported. Can someone post some good news?
Quoting Jax82:
I tell you what, the news today is extremely depressing. Just going to cnn or fox news and just reading the headlines, whether its the earthquake videos, nuclear fallout or middle east conflict, or stock markets tanking there is just nothing positive going on out there, or at least not reported. Can someone post some good news?

You have food, clean drinking water, a bed to sleep in. You can go about your activities as usual. Your neighborhood hasn't been wiped out. You haven't lost anyone you love or know in a sudden, tragic event.
This is great news, isn't it? I could go on, but think you can come up with the rest.
Quoting aquak9:
thank you Nea

"all the news
quick as a wink
for those like me
who don't wanna think"

(snork, hack, skroonnk)


sitting right next to you Aqua --need a paper towel, that sounded like a hairball ; )
Nevertheless, it is still a disaster, whether or not it doesn't reach Chernobyl levels. This is a nuclear disaster for Japan.
Quoting srada:


there were over 1400 workers there and ABC said this morning that 50 choose to stay behind sacrificing their lives..

(((50))) :***((
Quoting srada:


there were over 1400 workers there and ABC said this morning that 50 choose to stay behind sacrificing their lives..

yes. heroes big time. they know what they are doing. imagine that.
Quoting Jax82:
I tell you what, the news today is extremely depressing. Just going to cnn or fox news and just reading the headlines, whether its the earthquake videos, nuclear fallout or middle east conflict, or stock markets tanking there is just nothing positive going on out there, or at least not reported. Can someone post some good news?

Thursday is St Patty's day. Have a green beer on me! (I'll be parading in NOLA)
surfmom- I think it's kelp... I got the Bolivar Hackin'Yackies again.
1228: France's nuclear safety authority says it classifies the Fukushima plant accident as level six. The maximum is level seven, used only once for the 1986 Chernobyl accident, Reuters reports.
Deleted yet again for reposting cuz the WU program wouldn't allow editing here
I was unable to review the nuclear situation in Japan last night due to my bagger job at Publix. Please stand by and I will give you all an update soon.
Quoting Jax82:
I tell you what, the news today is extremely depressing. Just going to cnn or fox news and just reading the headlines, whether its the earthquake videos, nuclear fallout or middle east conflict, or stock markets tanking there is just nothing positive going on out there, or at least not reported. Can someone post some good news?



You can save a bunch of money on your car insurance by switching to Geico?
Wrote the below a few years ago during the aftermath of the July2007 Niigata-Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake took out TEPCO's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NuclearPowerStation. Which activists opposed on the basis that the site was located nearly on top of a dormant fault which connected to a nearby active fault.
Don't know whether any of the links still work, but left them anyway to help those willing to contact the content generators to refind the original articles.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The earthquake's jolts were 6.8 times more intense than TEPCO limit.

A"The trade minister also said yesterday the government failed to thoroughly examine fault lines near nuclear power plants."
"2,000 metric tons of water flooded the basement of the building that houses the facility’s No. 1 reactor." That's equivalent to 2,000 square metres / ~22,000 square feet / 0.2hectares / 2/5ths of a football field / O.5acres covered to a depth of 1metre/3.3 feet.

Naturally the flooding was originally announced as a "...puddle of water was discovered on the 5th basement floor of the reactor complex building Unit 1..." Maybe a puddle 10centimetres/4inches deep covering 4 football fields / 2hectares / 5acres ?

From other readings, the area was used for storage of radioactive materials.
"The leak had been announced...but yesterday company spokesman Kiyoto Ishikawa said most of the water didn’t mix with any radioactive substances." Which makes me want him to define what he means by "most": Anything over 50% is sufficient to be described as most.
And how were the different parts of that 2,000 cubic metres of water kept separate by the basement floor? Or did he mean that only part of the water poured over radioactive material before joining the rest of the water on the floor?
The flooding was caused by a waste water line being ruptured next to an electrical power conduit The electrical power conduit penetrates into the building through an underground hole in the wall, and the hole was cracked by the earthquake.

"...oil leaks and structural damage were found at five more transformers, not just the one at the No. 3 reactor that triggered a fire."
"Niigata prefectural government officials who inspected the plant the following day said it was 'simply by chance' that a fire broke out only at the transformer of the No. 3 reactor."
The transformer fire burned as long as it did because the plant personnel had to wait 90minutes for the city fire crew&equipment to show up because TEPCO didn't have the equiment to fight chemical fires on site. Due to a lack of a direct survivable link to the fire department, it took 14minutes after the fire broke out for the plant to get in contact with fire dispatchers.

The Niigata government's original financial impact estimate was a revenue loss of 2trillion yen / ~$17billion within the prefecture; with 700billion yen / ~$5.9billion of that revenue lost by the TEPCO plant.
At the same time, TEPCO projected a profit loss of 200billion yen / ~$1.7billion dollars for its public future earnings statements IF the plant could be brought back before next April.
At its simplest, revenue minus operating expenses equals profit. And a 200billion yen profit on 500billion yen in operating expenses, ie 40% profit on operating expenses seems more than a little high for an electrical utility.
And thus it is quite likely that a large portion of that 200billion yen / ~1.7billion is projected to be used for repair&cleanup&restart expenses. Naturally some of that money will pay for layoffs and idled workers, and to pay for electricity bought from other companies. But not as many, not as much as might be supposed: TEPCO is intending to fire up some retired-due-to-obsolescence gas turbines and extend running-times of its peak-power plants to provide part of the electrical power lost due to the shutdown.
Which also brings back a large portion of the revenue stream, with what-would-have-been profits making up for part of the extra expense of buying power from other suppliers and of firing up its own formerly-unused power-generating capacity.

Now, "Tokyo Electric Power Co. on Tuesday sharply lowered its group profit estimates for fiscal 2007 in the wake of the quake-induced shutdown of the world's largest nuclear power plant, which it expects to reduce profit by up to ¥400billion [~$3.4billion]."
TEPCO has yet to announce what its projected cleanup&repair&restart costs are.


The problem isn't the technology. It's idiot-proofing the technology:
ThreeMileIsland occurred because plant supervisors ordered techs to disable safety alarms which had triggered previously, and to ignore yet another alarm which indicated a serious malfunction as it was occurring. If the automatic-shutdown safeties hadn't kicked in while the malfunction leading to meltdown occurred, those supervisors woulda had that alarm to be disabled too.
Chernobyl was caused by a non-powerplant experimenter being allowed to take full control of the reactor, who promptly ignored all safety rules to pull out the reaction dampers to see how hot he could run the nuclear pile. Which turned out to be hot enough to cause the carbon moderator to burn water dumped in by the emergency cooling system.
The Japanese plutonium reprocessing accident occurred because a complete&utter dolt was made a company vice-president, who ordered a couple of basicly untrained workers (who were recruited from the equivalent of a skid row employment office) to speed up their work, or be fired. Not having been trained to even the most minimum degree of familiarity with nuclear physics, they promptly speeded things up enough to create a volume of plutonium-containing liquid exceeding criticality.
Etc ad nauseum for every criticality incident or radiation spill that has occurred outside of a small lab (excepting a few military weapons accidents).

And now "According to Japan’s Meteorological Agency, businesses have had a year’s time already to fill out the paperwork to install these [earthquake] early warning systems, but there's no evidence that any of Japan’s nuclear plants has done so."
Whether a few seconds of warning would have made it possible to avoid leaks (or even whether a few seconds of warning would have been given) is debatable. What isn't up for debate is that having the warning system available, yet failing to even try to install it is deliberate STUPIDity on the part of powerplant executives.

There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
-- Albert Einstein
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



You can save a bunch of money on your car insurance by switching to Geico?


honestly? I saved even more by switching to AlLstate...and I have a 20 yo driver to insure, too.

aimless babbly- hey Squawk? You might be right,
I have nothing good to report this morning. The nuclear situation is getting worse! People are being advised to leave Tokyo and increased raditation has been found in Russia as well. Many will die from this in Japan and possibly as far as Russia.

This disaster is categorized as worse than Three Mile Island, and almost as serious as Chernobyl. Conduct yourselves accordingly.
Quoting aquak9:


honestly? I saved even more by switching to AlLstate...and I have a 20 yo driver to insure, too.

aimless babbly- hey Squawk? You might be right,



That was the quickest humor I could come up with, lol. Savvy advertising I'd say.
726. Jax82
Quoting Chicklit:

You have food, clean drinking water, a bed to sleep in. You can go about your activities as usual. Your neighborhood hasn't been wiped out. You haven't lost anyone you love or know in a sudden, tragic event.
This is great news, isn't it? I could go on, but think you can come up with the rest.


Yes, very true and im thankful. I meant more along the lines of good news being reported by news agencies, they seem so focused on disasters/murders/conflicts. I guess thats what sells. :-/
I've lived through the aftermaths of several disasters--Andrew being the worst, though there have also been earthquakes, floods, and the like--and one thing that really bothered me was not having access to news right afterward. And that's not as petty as it sounds; contact with the outside world is crucial to the survivors of a catastrophe. To me, knowing the what and how and why and when is like an anchor; it helps keep me from becoming detached and disoriented. Being made aware of what exactly had happened, who had been affected, and--most importantly--when relief can be expected can make all the difference in the world. And a lack of such communication afterward always leads to confusion, turmoil, and deeper heartbreak.

I say all that to say this: it's odd to think that, thanks to 24-hour cable and the immediacy of the internet, most of us sitting here in the States know more about the size of the calamity and the reasons for it than do many of those affected. Many of those bundled against the cold for the fourth straight night may not know--nor even care--that the quake was upgraded to a 9.0, that it ruptured more than 300 miles of the fault zone, that there have been more than 500 aftershocks greater than 4.5MM. All they know is they're homeless, they're cold, they're hungry, they're scared, they're tired, and they just want the nightmare to go away.

Anyway, just a few random Tuesday morning thoughts...
It appears the South Atlantic disturbance 90Q is actually weakening, according to the latest best track as of 1200 UTC.
SL, 90, 2011031418, , BEST, 0, 227S, 402W, 30, 1000, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 175, 100, 0, 0, Q, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
SL, 90, 2011031512, , BEST, 0, 248S, 372W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 125, 100, 0, 0, Q, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Conduct yourselves accordingly.

as opposed to WHAT? my normal semi-hysterical running into walls, falling down, chicken-little mania?

What they probably don't realize, Nea is how many people are concerned and care about what happens to them. I hope the food and water arrives soon and do not really understand why we cannot get more supplies into Japan to where they're needed.
Quoting aquak9:
Conduct yourselves accordingly.

as opposed to WHAT? my normal semi-hysterical running into walls, falling down, chicken-little mania?



If you already do that then you have it covered.
Kyodo: TECPO unable to pour water into No. 4 reactor's storage pool for spent fuel.

And there you go...
Quoting aquak9:
Conduct yourselves accordingly.

as opposed to WHAT? my normal semi-hysterical running into walls, falling down, chicken-little mania?


You forgot foaming at the mouth.
Not good.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: TECPO unable to pour water into No. 4 reactor's storage pool for spent fuel.

And there you go...


Sound the alarm.
Quoting Chicklit:
What they probably don't realize, Nea is how many people are concerned and care about what happens to them. I hope the food and water arrives soon and do not really understand why we cannot get more supplies into Japan to where they're needed.

Logistics. The area has been devastated, and before supplies can be moved in, you have to see where they are needed most. It is incredibly inefficient to air-drop a bunch of stuff all over - some of it will be snapped up in moments, but other drops won't be touched. Also, you have to make sure its fair. Even in crisis, there are people out there who will hoard, and try to make a buck reselling supplies. With how utterly destroyed the infrastructure is, its not a quick process to get things organized. (ask any relief org how important being organized is for relief operations)
Quoting jeffs713:

You forgot foaming at the mouth.


oh yeah, there's that...
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20102011
16:00 PM RET March 15 2011
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 7 (1002 hPa) located at 13.0S 83.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/2.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 81.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.7S 80.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.5S 75.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.2S 71.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=====================

System keeps on undergoing a strong easterly sheared constraint. Low level vortex is totally exposed at more than 250 km far away in the east of deep convective activity. It keeps on shifting west southwestward at 9 knots over the past 6 hours. Environmental conditions are not expected to improve within the next 12-18 hours. Wednesday afternoon, wind shear is expected to begin weakening. Environmental conditions are forecast to become very favorable on and after Thursday or Friday over a globally west southwest track (weak wind shear, good poleward upper level outflow and efficient low level inflow on the both sides)

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING ANYMORE.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: TECPO unable to pour water into No. 4 reactor's storage pool for spent fuel.

And there you go...


Might be too dangerous there now, or maybe they don't have the resources to spare from trying to contain the other reactors.

They said the spent fuel rods aren't individually as dangerous as the reactors, but there are a lot more of them, and they aren't as well shielded, so it's a big deal.
741. P451
90Q at NRL

Nice ball of convection but it's sheared from the "center". There's not much of a surface feature with this at the moment.

Cyclone Phase Evolution - GFS
742. P451
Quoting RecordSeason:


Might be too dangerous there now, or maybe they don't have the resources to spare from trying to contain the other reactors.

They said the spent fuel rods aren't individually as dangerous as the reactors, but there are a lot more of them, and they aren't as well shielded, so it's a big deal.


A mass storage of spent fuel rods that are burning. Yeah, it's pretty much a big problem. The other three reactors are a losing battle as well. When the 50, or who knows how many are surviving workers, perish then the water stops flowing, whatever amount that may even be right now, and the reactors will all heat up and breach remaining containment and burn.

Three meltdowns and one storage of spent fuel on fire = catastrophe.

I think it's time for any positive spin to fade away and for the focus to shift on the impacts and eventual attempt to entomb all four facilities. Japan will have to do what Russia did. They'll have to sacrifice workers health working on 1 hour shifts all working to encase these facilities in massive concrete structures to entomb them. Then the reactions just go on for dozens of years burning away but contained.
744. P451
Quoting jeffs713:

Logistics. The area has been devastated, and before supplies can be moved in, you have to see where they are needed most. It is incredibly inefficient to air-drop a bunch of stuff all over - some of it will be snapped up in moments, but other drops won't be touched. Also, you have to make sure its fair. Even in crisis, there are people out there who will hoard, and try to make a buck reselling supplies. With how utterly destroyed the infrastructure is, its not a quick process to get things organized. (ask any relief org how important being organized is for relief operations)


Except unlike say Katrina and Americans who act like absolute jerks killing and hoarding - the Japanese are a very orderly and helpful of thy neighbor society. They are unlikely to riot or commit crimes.

There may be an isolated act of desperation but you're not going to see the chaos you can expect in other countries.
I cant believe how many aftershocks there has been... It is hard to imagine anyone will be in there right mind over there with the ground still moving.
looks like another very severe earthquake just occurred =(
Kyodo:

Strong quake of upper 6 shakes Kanto region (22:34)

No fear of tsunami from quake that hit central Japan (22:37)


Map of Kanto Region: It is south of the Fukushima plant and near (or just to the north) of Tokyo.

ya a 6+ seismic severity on their scale.

remember the scale only goes up to 7.
Breaking News: Stocks plunge at the open, with Dow sinking more than 280 points on Japan earthquake fears.

I guess it will hit our country today since Japan stocks fell over 10 percent last night
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
looks like another very severe earthquake just occurred =(


USGS does not acknowledge it. Why?
1336: Levels of radiation in Tokyo spiked on Wednesday morning to around 20 times normal levels, according a spokesman for Tokyo's Metropolitan Government, quoted by the Japan Times. Shintaro Ishihara, said though raised they would not cause health problems.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
ya a 6+ seismic severity on their scale.

remember the scale only goes up to 7.


I am waiting for it to show up on the map here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww /Maps/10/145_35.php

Quoting FloridaHeat:


USGS does not acknowledge it. Why?


they are about 1 hour delayed sometimes less
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they are about 1 hour delayed sometimes less

There often is a lag time.
Quoting P451:


A mass storage of spent fuel rods that are burning. Yeah, it's pretty much a big problem. The other three reactors are a losing battle as well. When the 50, or who knows how many are surviving workers, perish then the water stops flowing, whatever amount that may even be right now, and the reactors will all heat up and breach remaining containment and burn.

Three meltdowns and one storage of spent fuel on fire = catastrophe.

I think it's time for any positive spin to fade away and for the focus to shift on the impacts and eventual attempt to entomb all four facilities. Japan will have to do what Russia did. They'll have to sacrifice workers health working on 1 hour shifts all working to encase these facilities in massive concrete structures to entomb them. Then the reactions just go on for dozens of years burning away but contained.



There's going to be terrible food shortages.

Anything that isn't canned or refrigerated is going to be contaminated either by the crap the tsunami washed in, or else by the radiation fallout.

Within a 100 mile radius or so from the reactors, they are probably going to lose a LOT more crops than just what the tsunami destroyed. All new crops and livestock are going to need to be screened for radiation before harvesting. This also goes for exposed fresh produce and rice at markets, even in the big cities. They won't be able to drink milk or eat fresh produce anywhere in the affected areas, possibly for years to come for some isolated locations.
what time was the earthquake I see the latest entry is at 9:27 our time on the USGS at a 5.8 mag
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they are about 1 hour delayed sometimes less
They want to confirm the report and consolidate the information to be as accurate as possible prior to posting results.
760. Jax82
event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:27:53 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:27:53 PM at epicenter

Location 37.626°N, 142.320°E
Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 140 km (87 miles) ENE (63°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
144 km (89 miles) ESE (118°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
163 km (102 miles) E (94°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
316 km (196 miles) NE (46°) from TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.9 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles)
Parameters NST=335, Nph=337, Dmin=385.2 km, Rmss=1.38 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc00023fq
What did Japan do to deserve this?
5.8 is not that strong considering they have had a lot of 6+ lately ... I was thinking a 6+ on there scale would be a 7+ on our scale
Quoting FloridaHeat:
What did Japan do to deserve this?


Nothing, its just part of living in a dangerous world and a dangerous Universe. Sadly, we are reminded just how dangerous the natural world can really be sometimes.
Quoting FloridaHeat:
What did Japan do to deserve this?

I wasn't aware earthquakes were sentient, and could choose where to strike, and when.
Quoting P451:


Except unlike say Katrina and Americans who act like absolute jerks killing and hoarding - the Japanese are a very orderly and helpful of thy neighbor society. They are unlikely to riot or commit crimes.

There may be an isolated act of desperation but you're not going to see the chaos you can expect in other countries.



Gave it a PLUS.

I hardly ever rank comments, but I whole heartedly agree.

Americans act like babies when a disaster hits. Finger pointing, blame game, looting, murder, rape, chaos, price gouging by business owners...It's shameful.
It was overland, maybe that is why the severity level is at 6.
Quoting FloridaHeat:
What did Japan do to deserve this?


Good Morning everyone! I don't like what might be coming to the West Coast of the ConUs for a big one as well. Its really the only sector of the Ring of Fire that has not had a large quake for some time. Not putting out fear just stating the facts.
Quoting FloridaHeat:
What did Japan do to deserve this?

They perched their country right at the edge of a subduction zone. That's all.
Quoting P451:


Except unlike say Katrina and Americans who act like absolute jerks killing and hoarding - the Japanese are a very orderly and helpful of thy neighbor society. They are unlikely to riot or commit crimes.

There may be an isolated act of desperation but you're not going to see the chaos you can expect in other countries.

True. I think another thing holding back relief effors is the simple shock of it. The magnitude is just staggering.

Also, in talking with others, many people dismissed the severity, because "its Japan, they get quakes all the time", and "Japan is a rich country, its not like Haiti or some other third-world country". Its sad, but that is how many people feel. Whenever I hear that kind of drivel, I am quick to remind them about the international support the US got after Katrina, 9/11, and the two most recent major quakes on the west coast. We're a rich country too, but disasters are disasters. People still need help.
Quoting jeffs713:

True. I think another thing holding back relief effors is the simple shock of it. The magnitude is just staggering.

Also, in talking with others, many people dismissed the severity, because "its Japan, they get quakes all the time", and "Japan is a rich country, its not like Haiti or some other third-world country". Its sad, but that is how many people feel. Whenever I hear that kind of drivel, I am quick to remind them about the international support the US got after Katrina, 9/11, and the two most recent major quakes on the west coast. We're a rich country too, but disasters are disasters. People still need help.


A lot of people don't understand the magnitude scales. They thing a 9.0 is maybe slightly stronger than a 7.0. A few years ago when the Indonesia quake happened, there was this guy saying it was only about 50% stronger than a 6.0...


Well, a 9.0 is actually 1024 times as powerful as a 7.0, and is 32768 times as powerful as a 6.0. A 9.0 is also twice as powerful as an 8.8 quake.

So it's hard to explain to people who don't get it and think it's a linear scale.

Every tenth of a point is a power of the square root of 2, or every two tenths of a point is a power of 2, or every full point is a power of 32.


The strongest earthquake to hit the US in my life is a 6.9. This 9.0 quake was 1448 times more powerful than the Loma Prietta quake in California which happpened during the world series.
Update time = Tue Mar 15 14:00:05 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.1 2011/03/15 13:31:46 35.322 138.552 1.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/15 13:27:54 37.626 142.320 1.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 12:51:46 38.925 144.209 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 12:33:11 38.977 142.631 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 11:46:20 40.530 142.689 13.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 11:43:48 37.819 145.118 18.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.9 2011/03/15 11:32:53 62.741 -149.474 65.2 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 11:06:16 37.145 142.375 22.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 10:50:00 35.593 141.889 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.8 2011/03/15 10:31:28 35.798 140.647 42.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.0 2011/03/15 09:49:54 37.348 142.406 15.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 09:46:27 37.777 143.819 34.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 09:16:01 35.601 141.887 30.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/15 08:48:25 37.500 143.642 35.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.8 2011/03/15 08:36:23 36.654 142.537 35.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 08:01:47 40.436 143.240 29.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 07:35:45 37.485 142.324 37.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 07:18:14 36.100 142.295 37.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 07:08:29 38.336 142.211 30.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 07:03:48 36.814 140.383 22.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 06:56:32 36.864 140.363 30.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 06:40:27 37.517 143.732 29.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 06:34:03 57.988 -154.219 60.6 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 05:47:49 18.638 -66.731 73.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 05:40:25 37.944 141.965 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.0 2011/03/15 05:37:47 19.123 -66.485 21.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 05:32:50 -3.587 131.289 33.2 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 05:31:25 36.162 142.232 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 03:25:20 1.781 31.298 10.1 LAKE ALBERT REGION, UGANDA
MAP 5.1 2011/03/15 03:21:35 37.680 143.941 25.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 02:17:15 36.037 141.615 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 01:35:45 39.550 142.698 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 00:54:56 32.512 -115.697 5.2 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
6.1 Here is the link:
Link
crap that is near Tokeo... is the other fault going to go?
Quoting RecordSeason:


A lot of people don't understand the magnitude scales. They thing a 9.0 is maybe slightly stronger than a 7.0. A few years ago when the Indonesia quake happened, there was this guy saying it was only about 50% stronger than a 6.0...


Well, a 9.0 is actually 1024 times as powerful as a 7.0, and is 32768 times as powerful as a 6.0. A 9.0 is also twice as powerful as an 8.8 quake.

So it's hard to explain to people who don't get it and think it's a linear scale.

Every tenth of a point is a power of the square root of 2, or every two tenths of a point is a power of 2, or every full point is a power of 32.

Exactly. When I point out that the quake moved a section of sea floor THREE HUNDRED MILES LONG up an average of 10 feet, they pause. When I say that the quake moved the ENTIRE island of Honshu 13 feet to the east... they think again about their comments.
if ike is around? blues is alive and well with the north miss. allstars http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QViM36uCN2U
.
g'morning gro

I know a 6.8 will bounce you off of a very heavy sofa. It will break your poptarts, too.

AND make you lose your mind.
So the United States is not even close to being prepared for a quake of this magnitude...anywhere on our soil, perid.

We aren't even one thousandth prepared for a 9.0 quake. The 6.9 quake was at the very threshold. Another tenth or two and it would have leveled the city...
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
crap that is near Tokeo... is the other fault going to go?



6.1
Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:31:46 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM at epicenter

Location 35.322°N, 138.552°E
Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile) set by location program
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 40 km (25 miles) NNE (20°) from Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
42 km (26 miles) S (182°) from Kofu, Honshu, Japan
104 km (65 miles) NE (48°) from Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
115 km (72 miles) WSW (251°) from TOKYO, Japan
Quoting Grothar:
6.1 Here is the link:
Link

Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile) set by location program

WOW. That is a VERY shallow quake, especially of that size. No wonder why they listed it as a magnitude 6 on their scale. (as a note, the Christchurch quake of last month was a 6.3 at only 3 miles deep)

I'm also willing to bet there was some significant surface faulting on that quake, too.
Quoting RecordSeason:
So the United States is not even close to being prepared for a quake of this magnitude...anywhere on our soil, perid.

We aren't even one thousandth prepared for a 9.0 quake. The 6.9 quake was at the very threshold. Another tenth or two and it would have leveled the city...

We are as prepared for a quake this magnitude as I am prepared to become a neurosurgeon. (in other words, we're doomed, and the patient is gonna die)
Quoting RecordSeason:


A lot of people don't understand the magnitude scales. They thing a 9.0 is maybe slightly stronger than a 7.0. A few years ago when the Indonesia quake happened, there was this guy saying it was only about 50% stronger than a 6.0...


Well, a 9.0 is actually 1024 times as powerful as a 7.0, and is 32768 times as powerful as a 6.0. A 9.0 is also twice as powerful as an 8.8 quake.

So it's hard to explain to people who don't get it and think it's a linear scale.

Every tenth of a point is a power of the square root of 2, or every two tenths of a point is a power of 2, or every full point is a power of 32.


The strongest earthquake to hit the US in my life is a 6.9. This 9.0 quake was 1448 times more powerful than the Loma Prietta quake in California which happpened during the world series.


I don't know how old you are, however:
Prince William Sound, Alaska
1964 March 28 03:36 UTC
1964 March 27 05:36 p.m. local time
Magnitude 9.2
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning gro

I know a 6.8 will bounce you off of a very heavy sofa. It will break your poptarts, too.

AND make you lose your mind.


I always take care of my poptarts. These aftershocks are really very strong. I wish I knew more about how these swarms are. They seem to be on nearby faults. I just don't remember the Indonesian quake having so many strong ones after. I know they did have many for a long time after the initial one.
Quoting twincomanche:


I don't know how old you are, however:
Prince William Sound, Alaska
1964 March 28 03:36 UTC
1964 March 27 05:36 p.m. local time
Magnitude 9.2


That's the one that caused the Tidal wave in Port Alberni BC

1964 Alaska earthquake
Quoting twincomanche:


I don't know how old you are, however:
Prince William Sound, Alaska
1964 March 28 03:36 UTC
1964 March 27 05:36 p.m. local time
Magnitude 9.2


I know about that quake, but yeah it was quite a while before I was born, heck I think my mother was like 9 years or then or something...

Yes, there was somewhere around 30ft of uplifting of the region and terrible damage from the Raliegh waves on land and the tsunamis.

But thankfully that quake was in a relatively low population region compared to the lower 48 in contemporary times.
Morning Grothar!

That's the worst aftershock they've had, I believe.
Quoting twincomanche:


I don't know how old you are, however:
Prince William Sound, Alaska
1964 March 28 03:36 UTC
1964 March 27 05:36 p.m. local time
Magnitude 9.2


I was in college. I think Easter was early that year, if I am not mistaken. How old were you? LOL
Quoting RecordSeason:


I know about that quake, but yeah it was quite a while before I was born, heck I think my mother was like 9 years or then or something...

Yes, there was somewhere around 30ft of uplifting of the region and terrible damage from the Raliegh waves on land and the tsunamis.

But thankfully that quake was in a relatively low population region compared to the lower 48 in contemporary times.


Good grief that makes me almost as old as Grother!


that is on a different fault line completely
Just look at the past few hours


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 13:37:54 37.678 141.957 21.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/15 13:31:46 35.322 138.552 1.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/15 13:27:54 37.626 142.320 1.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.0 2011/03/15 13:07:51 18.284 -68.046 105.4 MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 12:51:46 38.925 144.209 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 12:33:11 38.977 142.631 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 11:46:20 40.530 142.689 13.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 11:43:48 37.819 145.118 18.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Quoting caneswatch:
Morning Grothar!

That's the worst aftershock they've had, I believe.


Not even close actually.

they had a 7-point-something and they've had more than three dozen 6-point-somethings. There has been at least one 6.8 aftershock two days ago, I think.


A seismologist with the USGS predicted they will have one ~8.0 aftershock and nine more ~7.0 aftershocks during the next year or so...
Quoting FloridaHeat:
What did Japan do to deserve this?


They're on a thing called the Ring of Fire, and this is where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. No one deserves an earthquake, and the effects, especially the unbelievable effects this one is causing, it's just a matter of where they are.
Quoting Grothar:


I was in college. I think Easter was early that year, if I am not mistaken. How old were you? LOL


Nineteen. Also trying to get my skull full of mush filled in the halls of higher learning.
Quoting caneswatch:


They're on a thing called the Ring of Fire, and this is where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. No one deserves an earthquake, it's just a matter of where they are.


Keep up with the program, Canes.


MAP 6.8 2011/03/12 01:47:16 37.588 142.682 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP
Quoting RecordSeason:
So the United States is not even close to being prepared for a quake of this magnitude...anywhere on our soil, perid.

We aren't even one thousandth prepared for a 9.0 quake. The 6.9 quake was at the very threshold. Another tenth or two and it would have leveled the city...

Imagine if--or rather when--there's a repeat of the New Madrid series of quakes: four separate tremors of between 7.2MM and 8.1MM over a period of seven weeks. Given how easily the shaking propagates through the solid bedrock, they'd be felt as far away as Pennsylvania, Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin. Some estimates put damage from a repeat quake nowadays at around a trillion dollars or so, as several large cities would suffer severe damage (Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock, Indianapolis, Nashville, and so on).
Quoting Neapolitan:

Imagine if--or rather when--there's a repeat of the New Madrid series of quakes: four separate tremors of between 7.2MM and 8.1MM over a period of seven weeks. Given how easily the shaking propagates through the solid bedrock, they'd be felt as far away as Pennsylvania, Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin. Some estimates put damage from a repeat quake nowadays at around a trillion dollars or so, as several large cities would suffer severe damage (Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock, Indianapolis, Nashville, and so on).


Church bells rang as far away as Boston. It is not just the sold bedrock. Because the underlying ground has less fractures than in the west, the enery is not broken up and is therefore able to travel much further. That is the main reason quakes in the East are felt over a much greater range.
Quoting RecordSeason:


A lot of people don't understand the magnitude scales. They thing a 9.0 is maybe slightly stronger than a 7.0. A few years ago when the Indonesia quake happened, there was this guy saying it was only about 50% stronger than a 6.0...


Well, a 9.0 is actually 1024 times as powerful as a 7.0, and is 32768 times as powerful as a 6.0. A 9.0 is also twice as powerful as an 8.8 quake.

So it's hard to explain to people who don't get it and think it's a linear scale.

Every tenth of a point is a power of the square root of 2, or every two tenths of a point is a power of 2, or every full point is a power of 32.


The strongest earthquake to hit the US in my life is a 6.9. This 9.0 quake was 1448 times more powerful than the Loma Prietta quake in California which happpened during the world series.


There have been stronger like: Link
but the Loma Prietta was the last to significantly affect a large metro area in the US (also Northridge 6.8). The one I refer to was near Joshua Tree, but still a 7.1.
Quoting twincomanche:


Nineteen. Also trying to get my skull full of mush filled in the halls of higher learning.


Did it take? j/k
Quoting Grothar:


Keep up with the program, Canes.


MAP 6.8 2011/03/12 01:47:16 37.588 142.682 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP


You quoted the wrong comment LOL (I had to get ya, and I said I believe LOL).

The government of Japan told residents within a 19-mile radius of the nuclear power plant to seal themselves off indoors. The numbers given said that 140,000 people, and I don't know why they didn't tell them to evacuate just after the earthquake.

gro- the poor little poptarts had crumbled while still inside their little wrappers. They had been intact when I bought'm...

then I started hanging nickels taped to dental floss around the house, so I'd KNOW if it was really an aftershock, or if I was imagining it.

yeah an earthquake will make you crazy, esp if you're from Florida.
Quoting Grothar:


Church bells rang as far away as Boston.

Did they wake you?
Quoting FloridaHeat:
Japan may need to be evacuated.


You can't evacuate an entire country, most especially one that has over 127 million people. The best you can do is make people in a certain-number-of-miles radius evacuate.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Did they wake you?


LOL, good one.
Where would they evacuate to is the other question even if you could evacuate the entire country
Following earlier reports, it appears there has been more than one strong aftershock in Japan - AP reports two tremors measuring over 6.0 within three minutes of each other.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Did they wake you?


Twit! LOL Guess I deserved that one.
Quoting fireflymom:
Following earlier reports, it appears there has been more than one strong aftershock in Japan - AP reports two tremors measuring over 6.0 within three minutes of each other.


one of those was less then 6.0 it was a 5.8 and a 6.1
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Where would they evacuate to is the other question even if you could evacuate the entire country


They need to evacuate to China immediately. We saw the earthquake lowered regions of the country by several feet. What if an aftershock or another quake lowers the whole country by several feet.
Quoting FloridaHeat:


They need to evacuate to China immediately. We saw the earthquake lowered regions of the country by several feet. What if an aftershock or another quake lowers the whole country by several feet.



why do you think that China would allow 120 million people into there country when they already have billions of people

no country on earth would allow that type of evacuation to come to there country. I would say that 5-6 countries could open there door for children of:

1. Areas hardest hit by the tsunami
2. Areas of greatest threat from Radiation
3. Children who lost both parents
Quoting aquak9:
gro- the poor little poptarts had crumbled while still inside their little wrappers. They had been intact when I bought'm...

then I started hanging nickels taped to dental floss around the house, so I'd KNOW if it was really an aftershock, or if I was imagining it.

yeah an earthquake will make you crazy, esp if you're from Florida.


There is a river which flows through Ft. Lauderdale called the New River. There is now evidence that it was created by an earthquake, which split the land open. I am looking into further since it is only a few blocks from our home.
Quoting FloridaHeat:


They need to evacuate to China immediately. We saw the earthquake lowered regions of the country by several feet. What if an aftershock or another quake lowers the whole country by several feet.
This is not a flat low country, many highlands and mountainous regions, perhaps your geography studies need updating.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



why do you think that China would allow 120 million people into there country when they already have billions of people


It is that or let up to 120 million people die from radiation, earthquakes and tsunamis!
Quoting fireflymom:
This is not a flat low country, many highlands and mountainous regions, perhaps your geography studies need updating.


Yes but the majority of the people are not in the mountain areas. Most are in the flat areas near the coast such as Tokyo.
Quoting fireflymom:
This is not a flat low country, many highlands and mountainous regions, perhaps your geography studies need updating.


I also got a C+ in geography in high school!
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders
Quoting FloridaHeat:


I also got a C+ in geography in high school!
Troll, *ignored*
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Quoting FloridaHeat:
Troll, *ignored*


That was rude.
FlaHeat- think about it. You simply can't get enough fuel into a place, to evacuate that many people. You'd use up all the fuel, to get the fuel there.

Airplanes take fuel. So do trains and ships. It can't be done. You could evac, day and night, night and day, and it simply could not be done.
Quoting FloridaHeat:


Yes but the majority of the people are not in the mountain areas. Most are in the flat areas near the coast such as Tokyo.


Evacute no, but are they in danger yes......i don't see radation as a threat tho.....just quakes and what comes with it.
Phunny all the murders after Katrina were done by Police Officers,,as I know of no other K related murders that were tried here.

And for fact LA erupted into Chaos after a Trial Verdict and well,on clear summer day.

AKA Rodney King.

So stick with the facts and you wont look like such Phools.

Sentencing delay sought in Danziger Bridge shooting
Published: Thursday, December 30, 2010, 12:48 Associated Press By The Associated Press


Quoting Patrap:
Phunny all the murders after Katrina were done by Police Officers,,as I know of no other K related murders that were tried here.

And for fact LA erupted into Chaos after a Trial Verdict and well,on clear summer day.

AKA Rodney King.

So stick with the facts and you wont look like such Phools.

Sentencing delay sought in Danziger Bridge shooting
Published: Thursday, December 30, 2010, 12:48 Associated Press By The Associated Press




Thankful that the Japanese are not like Americans because the disaster would be worse.
816. Maybe if you got an A, you would already know some of the information we're telling you.

Not to mention... don't you have to bag some groceries at Publix? The first few days you were on here, your questions/comments were amusing. Now, they are getting so "out there" to be completely asinine and imbecilic.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders


The United States........we have no Border Control already.............but, gotta say the Japanesse people are some of the best people with honor and just great culture!
Quoting jeffs713:
816. Maybe if you got an A, you would already know some of the information we're telling you.

Not to mention... don't you have to bag some groceries at Publix? The first few days you were on here, your questions/comments were amusing. Now, they are getting so "out there" to be completely asinine and imbecilic.


I am sorry that I cannot be as smart as you all but I do try. I am just a community college flunk out and yes a bagger at Publix. I am kind to my fellow man and that is what is important.
Just think if our Attorney General would lower the scale for High School kids, no one would flunk out and we would have 100% graduation rates.
Quoting Grothar:


There is a river which flows through Ft. Lauderdale called the New River. There is now evidence that it was created by an earthquake, which split the land open. I am looking into further since it is only a few blocks from our home.
Florida does have the occasional earthquake. The south half of Florida can be effected by quakes centered near Cuba, while the northern half can feel quakes that originate in the Atlantic..Here is one..1880 Cuba earthquake and the main fault that caused it...1880 Cuba earthquake 1880012300001880-01-23
04:39 San Cristbal/Vuelta Abajo (Pinar del Ro) [15] [16][1] 6.0 VIII 15 km A series of severe shock waves originating from western Cuba were also felt in the town of Key West (Florida), and included a strong earthquake on 23 January 1880 in San Cristbal, Pinar del Ro at 4 a.m.[16]
Kyodo: Magnitude of Shizuoka quake revised upward to 6.4 from 6.0.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders


The U.S. allows about 1.5 million illegal immigrants per year.

In a couple more decades, illegal immigrants will actually represent a majority share of the U.S. population. It will no longer even be "our" country. It will be owned and operated by those who came here illegally, often associated with mafia and drug cartels.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just think if our Attorney General would lower the scale for High School kids, no one would flunk out and we would have 100% graduation rates.


I wish community college would do that because I did not know it would be so hard. I tried it for one semester but did not pass most of my classes.
Quoting aquak9:
FlaHeat- think about it. You simply can't get enough fuel into a place, to evacuate that many people. You'd use up all the fuel, to get the fuel there.

Airplanes take fuel. So do trains and ships. It can't be done. You could evac, day and night, night and day, and it simply could not be done.


Exactly. Try evacuating 2 million people (which was at the time the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history because of the approach of Hurricane Frances). It took exactly 24 hours to get from where I live (Royal Palm Beach, FL) to the Florida/Georgia border via I-95. You can't do it.
Situation Update No. 2
On 14.03.2011 at 18:26 GMT+2

Japan's Shinmoedake volcano erupted on Sunday, adding to the crisis in the country. It was unclear if the eruptions were linked to earthquake, but caused panic near the mountain. The volcano is in Southern Japan about 950 miles from the epicenter of Friday's magnitude-9.0 earthquake. According to the Christian Science Monitor, local media reports "said boulders had landed on roads some distance from the 4,662-foot peak, while one woman was reportedly cut by broken glass" after the eruption." The volcano had been mostly dormant for two years except for a brief eruption on Jan. 19. “The eruption process is quite similar to the eruptions [of 1716 and1717], so more violent eruptions could take place,” Ryusuke Imura, an associate professor at Kagoshima University and expert on volcanic topography, told the Yomiuri newspaper. Eruptions and quakes are common in Japan's "ring of fire," however this was the first major seismic activity on this mountain in 52 years.
That recent 6.1magnitude quake (epicenter only 1kilometre/0.62miles below the surface) hit somewhere between 10miles and 20kilometres west of MountFuji, a generally recognized symbol of Japan.
Quoting SQUAWK:
BOY AND GIRLS!! LADIES AND GENTLEMAN!!!! FELLOW BLOGGERS!!!

When are you going to figure it out? Floridaheat is a troll just trying to push your buttons and it is working.


Not very nice. I am going to just stop posting if you are going to be so mean.
#
1456: Tepco says it may start pouring water from a helicopter over Fukushima Daiichi's reactor four in the next few days, to cool the spent-fuel pool.
#
1430: The US Navy says more of its personnel are testing positive for low-level radiation, but its relief efforts will continue, Reuters reports.
Quoting Skyepony:
#
1430: The US Navy says more of its personnel are testing positive for low-level radiation, but its relief efforts will continue, Reuters reports.


where are you getting these reports?
03/14/2011
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

A joint U.S. Air Force and U.S. Marine Corps search and rescue team look over the earthquake damage on Sendai Airport near Yokota Air Base, Japan, March 13, 2011. The team is part of the U.S. military’s disaster relief efforts in the wake of a massive earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan just days before. U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Samuel Morse

#
1422: China is organising a mass evacuation of its citizens from north-east Japan, the Associated Press reports. The Chinese embassy said it was sending buses to collect its nationals from Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Iwate prefectures, "due to the seriousness of and uncertainty surrounding the accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant at present".
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where are you getting these reports?



Link
The U2 has been Busy with Hi Alt Fights


U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Vontez Morrow preps U-2 pilot U.S. Air Force Capt. Beau Block for a humanitarian mission to Japan from Osan Air Base, South Korea, March 13, 2011. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Master Sgt. Paul Holcomb

Quoting TampaSpin:
Just think if our Attorney General would lower the scale for High School kids, no one would flunk out and we would have 100% graduation rates.


Really the problem in the U.S. is a generational culture which puts more value on entertainment than on knowledge and technology.

We continue to pay circus clowns like Charlie Sheen tens, even scores of millions per year when they should get minimum wage, or even prison time, since many of them are drug addicts and repeat sex offenders.


But anyway, we have this culture in America where people would rather watch "rasling" and football, instead of learning something.

A lot of people in my family absolutely refuse to learn anything. I'm serious. They will not even try to learn the metric system or maths. It's like talking to a wall. I am disheartened by the willful ignorance of my country and family.

Every time you mention a metric unit, like the "Meter", you get this, "I don't knwo what a meter is. You're confusing me," and then you have to explain that it's just another system of measurement and it's about 39 inches....then be prepared, 'cause next time they will have forgotten anything you explained to them before. Do NOT expect a parent, aunt, uncle, or sibling to learn anything, because it does not happen.

I spend most of my spare time on science related sites. Maybe I suck or something, but at least I try to learn something.
Quoting FloridaHeat:


I wish community college would do that because I did not know it would be so hard. I tried it for one semester but did not pass most of my classes.
sorry to hear that JFV
opps i mean FloridaHeat
U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Chase Neufeld inspects humanitarian relief cargo on Yokota Air Base, Japan, March 14, 2011. Neufeld is assigned to the 374th Logistics Readiness Squadron. U.S. Air Force photo by Osakabe Yasuo


thanks skye, for the updates
835. SQUAWK 3:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
BOY AND GIRLS!! LADIES AND GENTLEMAN!!!! FELLOW BLOGGERS!!!

When are you going to figure it out? Floridaheat is a troll just trying to push your buttons and it is working.



I guess I'm smarter than the average bear... I figured that one out awhile ago.... eh BooBoo?

;)
846 & 847 - LOL.
853. srada
Quoting Skyepony:
#
1422: China is organising a mass evacuation of its citizens from north-east Japan, the Associated Press reports. The Chinese embassy said it was sending buses to collect its nationals from Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Iwate prefectures, "due to the seriousness of and uncertainty surrounding the accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant at present".


See, I suggested last night that the Japanese govt do the same and was told the roads were impassable..evidently they arent if the Chinese are getting their citizens out of harm ways..kinda reminds me of katrina..if people dont have the means to leave, then they wont..
Quoting srada:


See, I suggested last night that the Japanese govt do the same and was told the roads were impassable..evidently they arent if the Chinese are getting their citizens out of harm ways..kinda reminds me of katrina..if people dont have the means to leave, then they wont..


"organizing" does not mean they are going to be immediately successful. This is going to take several days or a week or so.
China got All its folks out of Libya last week and sent a Naval Frigate into the Med for the First time "ever" offshore while they flew all of them out.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders


The US, see US/Mexico border
Libya evacuation: China evacuates 12,000 nationals via naval frigate


Royston Chan and Tom Miles, Reuters / February 25, 2011

China has evacuated 12,000, or about one third, of its citizens from turmoil in Libya, many of them workers for Chinese-run projects in the oil-rich nation, official media said on Friday.
Skip to next paragraph
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The mass evacuation, supported by a Chinese naval frigate, is the latest test for a government that has encouraged firms to seek business across the developing world, often in conditions considered too difficult or poorly paid for Western firms.

Relieved workers arrived on a charter flight to Shanghai on Thursday. Some told Reuters they had been working at a university construction site in the eastern city of Tobruk that was attacked by armed looters.

IN PICTURES: Libya uprising

Local staff told them to leave the increasingly dangerous conflict pitting opposition forces against long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi.

"We were lucky because we managed to rent eleven cars and all 83 of us got in with our luggage. Then we made our way to the Egyptian border," said 33-year-old construction worker Mao Yanjun.

China's Ministry of Commerce has said 75 Chinese companies have operations in Libya, including the state-owned energy giant CNPC, parent company of PetroChina Co Ltd (0857.HK)(601857.SS).

"China has suffered large-scale direct economic losses in Libya, including looted work sites, burned and destroyed vehicles and tools, smashed office equipment and stolen cash," the ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

ROBBED BY GANGS

The statement said some Chinese had been injured but there were no reports of deaths.

Zhong Chenyun, a manager at Sinohydro, said he and his colleagues had been stranded and robbed.

"All I have left is what I am wearing. My personal and company goods that I brought to Libya were all robbed by gangs with weapons. Our safety could not be guaranteed," he said.

Nearly 1,000 Chinese crossed over into Tunisia on Wednesday, and a Maltese ship capable of carrying more than 2,000 people arrived to evacuate Chinese nationals from the port of Benghazi on Thursday. It is expected in Malta later on Friday, the state-run Xinhua news agency said.

In 2010, Chinese trade with Libya was worth $6.6 billion, a rise of 27 percent on 2009.

Vietnam said it had evacuated about 1,300 of its citizens from Libya out of 10,482 living and working there.

Vietnamese in unaffected areas of Libya would "try to continue to work and remain where they are", the state-run Vietnam News quoted the Minister of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs on Friday as saying.

858. srada
Quoting RecordSeason:


"organizing" does not mean they are going to be immediately successful. This is going to take several days or a week or so.


Well at least they are trying..to sit back and not do anything would be condemning those people..I mean to tell people to stay at home and dont come outside is ridiculous,they dont have provisions or electricity so how could they survive in their own homes for who even knows how long..it should be a mandatory evacuation where the govt is assisting in traveling and shelter..
Fresca Time,,

enjoy a new Blog Entry from Dr. Masters,,this one is now archived.
I thought this was rather interesting

The recent 6.0magnitude quake was ~76miles/~122kilometres (nearly due)east of the Fukushima Daiichi(#1) and Daini(#2) nuclear powerplant sites.
"There is no cause for alarm. Pay no attention to the guys in hazmat suits. You can go about your business. Move along."