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QuikSCAT science at yesterday's hearing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:22 PM GMT on July 20, 2007

Dr. Robert Atlas, director of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory--the parent organiztion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division--testified at yesterday's Congressional hearing, on the science of QuikSCAT. In his written testimony, Dr. Atlas presented a good summary of QuikSCAT science:

There are three studies that address the potential degradation to computer hurricane forecasts that might result from the loss of QuikSCAT. Each of these studies has limitations that prevent definitive conclusions, and additional studies are needed. In my opinion, the preponderance of evidence from the three studies indicates that computer model forecasts of landfalling hurricanes, especially in the 2-5-day time range, could be degraded if we do not mitigate the loss effectively. Forecasters at the NHC are able to improve upon the computer forecasts, so that the potential degradation can be diminished. This is especially true as the storms are approaching land in the shorter time ranges. In addition, NOAA has recently developed an effective mitigation plan that would make substantial use of other satellites as well as enhanced aircraft observations.

I was pleased to see Dr. Atlas mentioning many of the uncertainties I've been drawing attention to. In his verbal comments, he offered a theory as to why the study done using the Navy NOGAPS model showed little effect of QuikSCAT on hurricane track forecasts. The NOGAPS model inserts a "bogus" vortex where a tropical cyclone exists, and this bogus vortex is resistant to modification by winds from QuikSCAT. The GFS model, used in the QuikSCAT study Bill Proenza cited, does not do vortex bogusing.

Dr. Atlas was not questioned about the uncertainties of QuikSCAT's impact on hurricane track forecasts, which surprised me. The general consensus among Congress members seemed to be that QuikSCAT was a valuable enough satellite that it deserved to be replaced, regardless of whether Mr. Proenza exaggerated its importance or not. No one talked about the need to cut any hurricane funding to pay for QuikSCAT, and a number of Congressmen thought we should be spending more. Congressman Ehlers (R-Michigan) said, "I think we have given short shrift to NOAA and its satellite program, considering how much is spent on the satellite programs for the Department of Defense, Global Positioning System, and NASA."

QuikSCAT science in the independent panel's report
The independent panel sent by NOAA to investigate management problems at the National Hurricane Center talked extensively about QuikSCAT (Attachment 9 of the written testimony of the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Conrad Lautenbacher). The report said that mistrust of Bill Proenza by the staff was, in part, caused by disagreements about the science of QuikSCAT:

"Statements by the director about the limited lifetime of the QuikSCAT satellite and the resulting impact on forecasts--made without context or caveat--raised public doubt about the center's ability to perform its mission and distracted center staff from doing their jobs."
And: One senior hurricane specialist noted that the director repeatedly quoted him out of context about the potential impact of QuikSCAT's loss even after the director was told that he was in error.

Had I been a senior forecaster at the NHC, I would have raised the same issues, and spoken out against the misrepresentation of the QuikSCAT science that occurred. The director of the NHC must be honest with the uncertainties in the science if he is to be entrusted with the most important job in weather.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Repost from previous blog:

Posted By: Fshhead at 3:17 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.

So let me ask my question again from earlier lol
Where are these ULL'S coming from cause they were around last year same way & just buzzsawed any tropical system. Also it is sitting in where I had heard from here right where the Bermuda high supposed to be setup???





ULLs? I think they are always present; 2005 had a lot of ULLs as well, which can even be good for storms:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR
.
Those facts weren't sorted! (grin)

Glad we can get back to the purpose of the blog...
STL, systems can also be helped out by being situated directly under an ULL

This was evident with a few of the late season storms in 2005 where cyclones situated under a cold pool of air aloft helped to increase convection due to higher lapse rates.
What I heard at Proenzas "trial" was that the study that NOAA issued was incomplete. Therefore you can not blame Proenza for using the study he used, since that was the only one issued by NOAA. We all knew Quickscats life expectancy and should have one up by now. Its not completely NOAAs fault. If we can get out of Iraq and Afghanistan and use our funds toward other issues like satelites, NHC, Social Security, Health Care etc. And I want to see NASA's manned Moon and Mars landing put on hold. I think funding the NHC, Social Security, etc is more important than risking astronauts life to go to some place that would not prove beneficial to us. The only bennifit I see is exploring this univerise that our Creator provided for us. Currently NASA supports the "Big Bang Theory". If there is no Creator and it was the "Big Bang" what bennifit do we get?
Sandcrab,,or Butch Loper,Emg Magr for Jackson County will be BarometerBobs interview Guest next Thursday Night at 8pm EDT.
My biggest quam with the hiring of Proenza was that this guy knew relativly little about tropical cyclones.

With so much focus now on hurricane season, severe weather and climate changes anyone other than a professional put on the job is just plain silly.
My biggest quam with the hiring of Proenza was that this guy knew relativly little about tropical cyclones.

He was the director of the NWS Southern Region which accounts for 90% of US tropical cyclone landfalls.
Hey everybody, I'm back. Had to stop and read the previous 5 hours of posts before I made a comment.

On the Proenza thing, it's quite likely he wouldn't have been in trouble today if he hadn't alienated key members of staff, regardless of what he said about QS and NOAA spending. I firmly believe that there has been a lot of political manouvering (and I'm talking about what is know as "petty politics", not the party kind)and puppeteering, both at NOAA and within the NHC itself. I am going to be very interested to see what happens at the end of this season, especially if something does happen to cause QS to fail.
Bob,

it all sounded fine until you got into the whole 'creator' thing...
What the heck is that suppose to mean sullivan?
Even if his experience in tropical cyclone formation etc was limited, he was in a position to learn from the best.
I provided an unbiased statement. I gave 2 reasons for us to go explore the Universe or not to explore it.
One thing I think we can all AGREE on is now the new director is the one who should have gotten it in the 1st place!!!! What's his name again??
What's his name again??

Ed Rappaport
38 years ago today..NEil And Buzz landed at Tranquility Base..at 3;15 est July 20

The Eagle Has Landed
yea Rappaport that's right Thanx, WP!!!! He is the one who should have gotten the position in the 1st place. Usually does not go well promoting out of the "loop" lol
Pat, probably the finest point in my lifetime for America!!!!!!!! SALUTE~~~~~
38 years ago today..NEil And Buzz landed at Tranquility Base..at 3;15 est July 20

The Eagle Has Landed


One of the last wars we won.
Posted By: Patrap at 8:44 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

38 years ago today..NEil And Buzz landed at Tranquility Base..at 3;15 est July 20

The Eagle Has Landed
.
.
.
That was the high point for America as I see it. It's been downhill since then. I think and hope that we've reached rock bottom now. Let's hope an uptrend resumes after 11/08.
Chantal will be born on - August 6th, 11:00am.
Walter Cronkrite describes that day..Link
Fsh,

The only reason Ed did not get it in the first place is because HE TURNED IT DOWN. So if you want to blame someone for this brouhaha, you should blame Ed. . . .

Launch as seen on TV..

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




afternoon all. please stop fighting about proenza. we need to let this issue go as it will not matter until december. also development may be occuring near the tail end of a tropical wave at coordinates: 70 deg. west 17 deg. north. Right now all this is is inflow into the dsiturbacne in the atlantic which should be dead by tommorrow. right now nethier of these look like they will develop. i give ethier one a 5% chance or lesso of development in the next 48 hrs. if something changes than i may change my number. also i give a 45% chance of a tropical depression forming somewhere in the antlantic between the middles of next week into the middles of the following week. This is due to lowered shear and tropical waves moving into the carribean. enhanced visible loop: Link


Well, glad to see we're trying to get back on the weather; but, I do notice my posts were pulled. What's up with that?

There were no personal attacks, except for bashing Proenza.
tropicfreak that is the old two the new still hasn't come out yet. also lots of warnings going up now: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php
How do I know? My wife is due that day with our 3rd child.....

I can't wait till the 530 TWO
moonlight who pulled your posts. Guys whoever did that please speak up.
Also if your going to talk about proenza. STOP BASHING HIM!
No idea, TCC. Who can I see about that? It's not right. I've seen far worse on here, that's for sure. And, shoot, nearly everyone has bashed Proenza in some form or another.
I know texascane I was just posting it so we can look at it till the 530 two comes up.And for the warnings,i think we'll see td3 in less than 24 hours
Is saying that he's not an effective leader, bashing him? Don't think so.

...wish I'd never got on this pitiful topic...but it's okay for everyone else to I suppose!

...gotta run, later. Hope whomever enjoys the free-spirited, tropical, weather-related topic blogging...that's ONE-SIDED! That was mostly good debate; but not quintessential sportman-like conduct. I tried to be.

Later, all.
tropicalman there is a wave that could develop it's a good looking storm,in an area with low shear and very hot waters.
July 20, 2007.
Launch as seen on TV..

That's not how it was on my TV.We had black and white
hmm moonlight let me talk to chris. He is and admin. I will get back to you as soon as i here from him just drop by daily for an answer or emal me.
Posted By: tropicfreak at 5:10 PM EDT on July 20, 2007.
I know texascane I was just posting it so we can look at it till the 530 two comes up.And for the warnings,i think we'll see td3 in less than 24 hours

Where? what Lat and Lon?
The one stretching from pueto rico into the atlantic basin
70N 17S
Okay tropicfreak...maybe so I dont know
You mean 70W and 17N? correct...LOL
Ok, so I'm a little fixated on a little spin down by the Yucatan with very little convection. Why? Heat and little shear. If that little spin finds some convection, something may happen. Pressure down again to 29.91 in last hour (and this is more than 100 miles from the center of the low). Here are the latest Yucatan Buoy obs:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 99 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.5 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 95.4 F
Yes thanks for correcting me geek
What's the problem that some have with discussing the Congressional hearings instead of droning on about blobs? This is Dr. Master's blog, and it's him that's written about the whole NHC saga, and the science and politics involved.
Sure freak, I just wanted to make sure I knew what you were talking about.
cosmic,we're just taking a look at the storm.
Lets hope the WU bloggers get the Bill Proenza fiasco out of their system after today & tomorrow & focus on the 2007 Hurricane Season come Sunday. Hopefully this baggage will be behind us when when we start a new week.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW INTERACTING WITH WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Right now,upperlevel winds aren't favorable for development,but will be soon.
Yes shear around 20knots
i agree with you 900 it might be somethin. Anywway that little spinny blob has a better chance than the wave now being eaten for dinner by the ull. Also moonlight i have put in a question for chris asking about you losing your posts.
68. IKE
Posted By: GainesvilleGator at 4:19 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Lets hope the WU bloggers get the Bill Proenza fiasco out of their system after today & tomorrow & focus on the 2007 Hurricane Season come Sunday. Hopefully this baggage will be behind us when when we start a new week.


Yo bud...

Tropicfreak, so you said you think this will be a TD in 24 hrs??
G.Gator - yep!
moonlight who pulled your posts. Guys whoever did that please speak up.

Bloggers can't delete other bloggers post. Only on there own blog. It was one of the admin.
lo gatorx. Also the disturbance the nhc speaks of is dead. ignore it. the ulls have already had it for breakfast and lunch and now they are having it for dinner it is gone.
Ok, so I'm a little fixated on a little spin down by the Yucatan with very little convection. Why? Heat and little shear. If that little spin finds some convection, something may happen. Pressure down again to 29.91 in last hour (and this is more than 100 miles from the center of the low). Here are the latest Yucatan Buoy obs:

Its an ULL. No tropical development there.
75. IKE
NOAA FORECASTERS WARN OF BUILDING HEAT IN CENTRAL U.S., THEN EAST NOAA urges people in the Northern Plains and Midwest to prepare now for a heat wave expected to plague the region during the last 10 days of the month and possibly into August. There is excellent agreement among forecast models on the development of a new heat wave, and this could surpass in duration, severity and impacts the heat waves we have already seen so far this summer, said Douglas LeComte, meteorologist at NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. The heats location and intensity make it a dangerous threat to people, crops and livestock.
no wpb i think he meant the one with the convection further to the south not that ull.
77. IKE
Found this from the Key West, FL. extended discussion...

"A tropical wave...currently located along 69w south of
18n...should be moving south of Cuba Sunday. As a result...low level
winds may shift to southeast or south Sunday...advecting deep...
tropical moisture northward across the Florida Straits. Rain chances
Sunday will be above normal for this time of year."......
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW INTERACTING WITH WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



....
Thanks Ike and Texas...
That little tiny bugger South of Cuba has been spinning for the past couple of days with on and off convection. Not much convection now, but pressures are starting to drop on Yucatan Buoy...who knows, it's been a slow day and I keep thinking the next TD will come out of that (hot water) area.
900 please list the coordinates of the feature you are looking at.
900, that is just an ULL.
RL3ao we will know in a second what he is lookin at.
Ok Dr M not that it matters because no one probably cares what I think but I will concede a point to the NHC forecasters on the QuickScat impact overstatement issue. I changed my mind.

public doubt about the center's ability to perform its mission
- That broad statement has a many interconnected parts deserves a few blogs and a lot more thought and discussion.

Still just under the waves there seems to be other currents in the NHC storm, however, varying from many completely unrelated to the QuickScat issue to a small few inherently connected and inseparable from it.

Hey what happend to the blob?is it still there?
85. IKE
900....I was quoting a discussion on the wave to the east of the Yucatan ULL(which will not develop).

The wave itself might develop some as it moves WNW....the models I've looked at show plentiful moisture in the western Caribbean in the next 2 to 3 days.

Also, on the latest TWO, they mentioned the southern portion of the wave...the Caribbean portion. They didn't do that on the earlier, late morning, TWO.
no sammy wave go bye bye.
Bloggers can't delete other bloggers post. Only on there own blog. It was one of the admin.

Actually, we can delete other's comments in a way - by clicking on the button, which reports the comment to the admin (I don't know who reported his comments though).
hmm. coughcoughstormkatcoughcough.
Even though I act like I do it all the time I extremely rarely flag anyones posts -- Just usually those that are condescending and/or unnecessarily harsh and offer no out or conversational and factual means of resolution.

People should see when they say something inappropriate and take care of it themselves, way before the fastest admin can get to it.
Just a couple degrees South and East of the Buoy in the Yucatan Basin ((20N, 85 W)
Here's the buoy: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
900 that is ull it will not do anything. However go to coordinates 70 west 17 north you will see two new blobs on at those corrdinates another further sw. those could do something.
900MB

Is the circle area what you are talking about?



If so that is an ULL. Like I said no development.
I cant believe there is not more going on in the Caribbean today especially after yesterdays show.
just checkin in i see soup starting to bubble all over the place action soon stay tuned won't be long now activity on the increase last few days, real kicker comes by the end of the month once we move into peak hurricane period of aug 1 to oct 1
WPB..That's the one! You may think I'm nuts, but keep a close eye on it..we'll see..nice graphic btw, thanks.
97. CJ5
Posted By: aggie17 at 9:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
So why don't all the Bush bashing posts get yanked?


Good question. I am here for tropical discussions but when four or five anti-Bush or anti-war posts get made it is impossible not to respond.
Two other things that Dr. Atlas said at the hearing yesterday:

-QuickSCAT was superior to other satellite systems for detecting cyclogenesis

-Three forecasters at the Ocean Prediction Center told him that QuickSCAT was "The best tool they have".

From my recollection of Conrad Lautenbacher's testimony yesterday I am under the impression that he believes that remote sensing of the surface wind vector field is important to forecasting accuracy, and that failure of QuickSCAT will lead to a degradation in forecasting track accuracy, even after the implementation of the mitigation plan that includes increased aerial reconnaissance, use of ASCAT for estimating surface wind vector fields, and 4 new buoys. Lautenbacher admitted under questioning that ASCAT data is not currently being used for model input, so that part of the mitigation plan is not currently operational should QuickSCAT fail anytime soon.

Perhaps the real issue here is not the man, Bill Proenza, but the abject failure of NOAA and NASA to deploy an advanced replacement for QuickSCAT that is well beyond it's expected lifetime and may fail in the middle of a dangerous hurricane season. Bill Proenza made it his mission to call this inexcusable failure to the public's attention, and even though the man is gone the message remains. I think Dr. Masters would agree that even if Proenza went beyond the current state of the science with his statements, that the science is far from complete, and that remote sensing of surface winds most likely makes a significant contribution to accuracy in tropical and ocean storm forecasting in regards to cyclogenesis, track accuracy and intensity.

Some further discussion from Ocean Winds (somewhat outdated, from June 2005, but still interesting):

"The late-April National Research Council report on the state of NASA's Earth science program mentioned six important missions that were in dire budget straits due to NASA's misplaced emphasis on sending humans back to the dead Moon rather than learn more about our own changing planet. Earlier I've covered Global Precipitation Measurement, which aims to measure rainfall over the bulk of the planet, and the GIFTS mission, which would demonstrate new technology for more detailed and more accurate measurements of atmospheric temperature and water vapor. Despite their great potential for directly benefiting our lives through improved weather forecasting, climate prediction, and more, the former has been delayed until 2010, while the latter has been canceled."

"Another canceled mission is called "Ocean Vector Winds." Its goal is simple: to measure the speed and direction of winds over the ocean surface. What does this data buy us? Apparently, quite a lot: improved weather forecasts and storm warnings; improved knowledge of air-sea interactions and ocean circulation and thus improved climate models; and the possibility of more accurate El Nino forecasts. El Nino, as many know, is the phenomenon, driven by changes in air and ocean circulation in the equatorial Pacific, that leads to drastic disruptions of normal climate patterns every few years, with corresponding drastic disruptions to the lives of many millions of people."
[...]
"Aren't there satellites that are already gathering this data for us? Yes, there is currently one such satellite, a NASA satellite called QuikSCAT that carries a scatterometer instrument called SeaWinds. QuickSCAT was launched in 1999 as a quick replacement for NSCAT, which had prematurely failed a couple years earlier after a short, but successful, mission."

"QuikSCAT has continued NSCAT's successes, while avoiding its premature death. A forecaster from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Tropical Prediction Center is quoted in the NRC report saying that "without QuikSCAT they would be forecasting in the dark." QuikSCAT not only hasn't failed, but is now three years beyond its designed lifetime. Since it won't last forever, what comes next?"

"Its first followup, SeaWinds on ADEOS-II, followed the unfortunate path of NSCAT and failed in 2003 after only a few months of operation. And now the other followup, Ocean Vector Winds, originally scheduled for launch in 2008, has been canceled by NASA."
[...]
(much more to read on linked page)


All ULLs don't seem to be created equally, some act more like tropical jets I notice.

BUT - These out there now seem to be unusually similar and lower level perhaps, and, why are there so many?

I didnt know the Ocean Prediction Center had their own products. They have nice maps.
100. CJ5
....made without context or caveat--raised public doubt about the center's ability to perform its mission and distracted center staff from doing their jobs

The centers staff were much more distracted by thier own dislike for Proenza than any thing he had done himself.
WHEN USING THE BLOG ONLY ITEMS RELATING TO TROPICAL WEATHER ARE ALLOWED
104. 900MB
Not to obsess, but latest Yucatan readings show another pressure drop over the past hour to 29.89 (1012):

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.4 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 95.4 F
WHEN USING THE BLOG ONLY ITEMS RELATING TO TROPICAL WEATHER ARE ALLOWED

Or this:

QuikSCAT science at yesterday's hearing

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
107. CJ5
Posted By: Fshhead at 8:45 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
yea Rappaport that's right Thanx, WP!!!! He is the one who should have gotten the position in the 1st place. Usually does not go well promoting out of the "loop" lol


No one in the "loop" wanted the job. We can all see why, now.
Water temp off Clearwater Beach- 92 degrees
yo're always on the attack huh jp
I think that normal fluctuations due to the tidal effect of the Sun and Moon, just as they affect the oceans, as well as diurnal heating (warm air is less dense and lighter than cold air, this effect is more pronounced over continents, like around here):

I think that we should all just keep an eye on the wave emerging off Africa. It appears to have some circulation with it. I do agree that the southern part of the Caribbean wave could develop, but it is somewhat unlikely. This is all setting up for the big show.
go ahead talk away im just here for weather not politics
KEEPEROFTHEGATE, are you STORMTOP?
120. CJ5
Posted By: KEEPEROFTHEGATE at 10:14 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
WHEN USING THE BLOG ONLY ITEMS RELATING TO TROPICAL WEATHER ARE ALLOWED


That is incorrect. If Dr. M blogs a topic it is appropriate to make comments.
hey jp no hard feelings ur all really a great bunch of people but sometimes the politics just goes on far to long
I enjoy everybodys input,its better than watching our local weathermen,if everybody keeps their egos in check
The ULL at 69W 27N appears to be getting some lower level circulation

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41043&meas=pres&uom=E
and
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

Also, the pressures at buoy 41043 appear to be dropping (due to the wave passing over being eaten by the ULL)

Is it possible this ULL will try to convert to warm core?
There is also an increasing amount of moisture in the area

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
can ask some of you specifcally the ones bickering with keeper of the gate wtf your problem is??? Cant we all just talk about weather NOT POLITICS! and get along???

also psl....
i do not know the situation is similar to what happend with andrea. i imaging if anything comes out of this it will be a subtropical storm.
make a comment yes CJ5 but not write a book
jp you wunderblog or something else like stormchat? i am interested in going there during the heart of the sounds good. also okay go ahead then thought that it was a weather only blog with the exception of today as it is weather related poltics but i really do not care eathier way except when people talk about other politics it seems to lead to arguments sometimes Big ones. anyway it is not my problem so i will stay out of blog comment topic related conversation starting now.
Yep JP I was watching that wave as well yesterday. I guess the main problem is that the ULL inhibits good outflow needed for tropical development.

Well, I'm new at looking at all this. But It'll be interesting to watch for me at least...
I am tired of this topic Dr. Masters.
your all ways welcome to my blog texascanecaster1
i 2nd that
Question to all...Did that ULL last night help that wave to outflow as it did? Or did it inhibit it?
Never mind...Thanks JP
thank you taz. althoguh i was asking jp i would like to go see your blog too.
...
i agree with charley dr. masters i am tired of this topic thank you for saying that you won't post another blog on it.
I see Proenza is still moderating the blog.

Politics-weather; politics-weather....going to stop, going to another blog...yeah, yeah, whatEVER.

Well, I talked about the Doc's blog and my posts got pulled. Go figure...didn't sit well with a few. It's hard to have an "opposing" political view here without getting blasted.
Dodabear, who died and make you king?
If Dr. Masters wants to criticize anyone, it should be Bush and his administration. Bush's war has taken away funds from everything in America, including weather technology.
I was watching a line of thunderstorms move across
SE Ga on the NWS radar and suddenly I thought I
thought I was gonna get a tree through my roof. If anyone wants the wind, I'll keep the rain and you can have the wind.
148. Alec
Some individual blogs have GREAT weather info too.....to escape this blog's insanity, you could go there...
Dont blame me MLC. The only post I today was NRAamy seizure man.
I'm glad Proenza is gone, and I'll be glad when the out-of-touch, ole boy's gone from this blog, too!
gee, thanks bobw!!!!!!
Looks like Bill Proenza comes out on top and even takes home the bacon.

It is time for Mr. Masters to either resign for making a fool of weatherunderground or get back to talking weather, which he may know something about.
Jp, our discussion stopped being a debate when you said I was "bashing" Proenza.

I simply stated my humble opinion in the early on; but after that, it was less than a debate. You disputed my conclusions of ineffective leadership, QS lobbying methods and doubted my statements by saying there was no proof to them. When the facts I stated are completely and totally already on the record.

If you can't take it, don't dish it out. I like you just fine, Jp; but, if there's going to be an "honorable" debate, or discussion on the matter, the way to handle it is to just state opinions and NOT argue that someone is being "bashful", argumentative, or mis-stating facts.
Agreed Boca.
wow we dont have a cat 5 hurricane out there and this blog is going mad
I would love to see them all replaced.
jp, I agree with you.
Jp, don't do that "leaving act" again, please. I respect your opinions, just respect mine is all I'm saying.

You're a great caster, hang on and hang out!!! This is fun. Don't take any of that crap personally! It's not worth it.

Whaddya say, truce...and let's get back to the tropics. Friend? I'm good if you are!!!
Not a chance Murko
jp not meant for u but for us all including myself sometimes we all sound like we know to much we should really be understanding and allow everyone the chance to express there view including u jp
173. Murko
Thanks Charlie. JP, don't be a child, if someone upsets you, ignore them. Taz said the same thing a few days ago, but was grown up enough to ignore the flames. I like your posts and think you bring a lot to this blog.
Not a chance Murko

TWC says a surface low could develop with it eventually.
in fact if iam not mistaken weather is the copulation of many indiviuals observations compile into a resonable projection of the weather and its outcome
Posted By: clwstmchasr
How do I know? My wife is due that day with our 3rd child.....


LOL my experience was the storms came 5-6 wks later, the new baby slept all night for the first time, mom didn't
Since when has TWC known much of anything?
Stop the fighting stop the craziness PLEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
How about we call our selves:

TUWUWATSFODMBA

Otherwise know as The United Weather Underground Wishcasters Association That Sometimes Fight On Dr. Masters Blog
you know what how about we all look at this goofy blob over puerto ric instead k?
bblob:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

I am doing a study on the hurricane that destroyed my home, and my town. Does anyone know where I can get a detailed map that shows exactly where the eye crossed over? A map complete with roads, etc.
Taz,
I went to read your blog:
97L likey
Posted by: Tazmanian, 2:28 PM EDT on July 10, 2007

and it said I was banned? Having never been there before, do you know why this would be?
CRS
None of the models are developing anything very interesting in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf over the next week--not even the usually aggressive CMC. Perhaps it's time to settle down with a good book. Harry Potter anyone?
Harry Potter is stupid.
Harry Potter is stupid alright...stupid all the way to the bank. lol
Jp, got any "head-on" you can loan me? lol
yeah...can't believe it either.
Harry Potter is just a bunch of hype. A spider probably dies.........
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
193. Alec
So how did we transition from Proenza to Harry Potter?LOL

I hope not, cause I hate potter.
What's happening out at 48w,15n?
what the heck? you can't say something like that and not tell us!!!
If you take a look at the IR loop on the NHC website, they have rotating surface winds near the ULL. It is at about 19 N, 70W. Click on the HWD-Low.
pretty dumb to bring it up then huh.
Looks like this blog has gone chaotic. Completely crazy.
blob? I said blog.
You can't post a comment on here without being screamed at.
jp- LOL I wasn't saying you were screaming at me. I was referring to some of the other people on here.
ummm.wx plz
Everyone chill.....have a beer! :)
hey guys. i was on vacation for a week. what is with that tail end of a front that is forecast to go into the gulf? will it take that low off of texas? that low on texas looks like a td, though. look at the visible on the tropical home page.
did anyone see that preview for a weather show on the discovery channel about controlling hurricanes? sounds like a load of bs to me.
did anyone see that preview for a weather show on the discovery channel about controlling hurricanes? sounds like a load of bs to me.

I don't watch discovery channel. That's bull. Project Stormfury didn't work, nothing else will. Better not to tamper with nature. We tend to ruin what we touch...
yeah, i know koritheman. i can only grow plants well. everything else gets spoiled or turns rotten or becomes crazy. all are descriptions of my loved ones.
JP - you have mail
hello? i think the computer is simulating echos. "HELLO, HELLO, Hello, hello"
For now the atmosphere just is not prime yet for a formidable tropical system to take shape.To be honest you can have the warmest SST'S but if you don't have a surface low with light shear and a large upper high for ventilation any convection out there at some point will begin to choke at the surface if there's no inflow and air being evacuated over top.Overall i suspect conditions to will become somehwhat more favorable in the next 2-3 weeks as it typically does during a normal season.

For now no worries this weekend across the tropics.Adrian
225. Murko
Just got back from my 'cuda and fries. You guys are so funny. Harry Potter? lmao. My 11yo neice is visiting atm, having just finished the 6th one. Dumbledore dies. Get over it.
who's blog are you guys talking on now? how come when i get on i kill the blog? if i could get a flicking off loop i would right now...
thanks... no comment.... aparently you guys hate me, so i'll leave now so you can start talking. bye.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:49 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.

For now the atmosphere just is not prime yet for a formidable tropical system to take shape.


Very true, Adrian.

I am beginning to wonder if hurricane season will even exist anymore, since SAL increases more every year it seems like. Atlantic Ocean will be a desert directly... I don't think SAL will EVER die off.
thanks... no comment.... aparently you guys hate me, so i'll leave now so you can start talking. bye.

What are you talking about? O_o
hey everyone...check out the two lines of storms converging in mississippi. Pretty cool!!!
Bama, been watching that. Just called my daughter and advised her to be off the road and in the house...lol.
I think global warming has killed hurricanes in the Atlantic for good.
Jesus... what is the world did the 2005 season do??????
I think global warming has killed hurricanes in the Atlantic for good.

How so? I was only joking, but I'm serious in a way.... SAL NEVER NEVER EVER dies off the past few years... I mean man, it's like someone cast a curse.
what happens when they meet?....does the world end LOL!!
I am beginning to wonder if hurricane season will even exist anymore, since SAL increases more every year it seems like. Atlantic Ocean will be a desert directly... I don't think SAL will EVER die off.

Umm,excuse me.We have the most active 5 year period on record in 2002-2006 and you're wondering if jurricane season can ever exist again?Just because it's July 20 and we've only had 2 named storms?
Will it spawn tornadoes maybe??????
dunno, bama; but two winds from two different directions? could be trouble?
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 1:07 AM GMT on July 21, 2007.

Jesus... what is the world did the 2005 season do??????


I know,LMBO!
Umm,excuse me.We have the most active 5 year period on record in 2002-2006 and you're wondering if jurricane season can ever exist again?Just because it's July 20 and we've only had 2 named storms?

July 20 has nothing to do with that, kris. It's the fact that everytime SAL dies off, more takes it place. It happened two days ago; SAL was dying considerably, and another storm blew the dust out into the Atlantic.

How can you even get development with SAL returning EVERY FIVE days?
It's gonna take a decade or more before people get over that year's early season activity,IMO.
Koritheman,SAL is forecast to die out in the next two weeks,and even if it didn't,that doesn't mean this year will be a bust at all.2004 had above average SAL.
Koritheman,SAL is forecast to die out in the next two weeks,and even if it didn't,that doesn't mean this year will be a bust at all.2004 had above average SAL.

Well, if you don't mind me asking, if you know what will make it die out, please tell me. I don't doubt it will (I'm no forecaster, Dr. Masters is, and he said that it would die too). I wanna know what would make it die out.

As for this...

It's gonna take a decade or more before people get over that year's early season activity,IMO.

Not for me. I don't care if Andrea and Barry are the only ones that formed thus far. 1999 was very slow (this year isn't slow btw, as you know), but look what happened after August 18. I know early season activity means nothing on the season as a whole. Look at 1968 and 1952.
Anybody remember these years, especially the last one (also, 2001 didn't have any hurricanes at all and only four storms before September)?

2000 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed: June 7, 2000 (tropical depression)
Last storm dissipated: October 29, 2000
Strongest storm: Keith - 939 mbar (hPa) (27.74 inHg), 140 mph (220 km/h)
Total storms: 15
Hurricanes: 7
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 3
Total fatalities: 50 (7 indirect)
Total damage: $1.2 billion (2000 USD)
$1.41 billion (2006 USD)

Hurricane Alberto (2000)
Alberto formed on August 3 while just south of Cape Verde. It made the transition from tropical storm to hurricane strength three times. After forming, Alberto headed west-northwest, then headed back to the east and performed a large loop, peaking at 130 mph on the 12th. On the 23rd, Alberto was classified as extratropical. The extratropical Alberto headed north-northeast and passed over northwestern Iceland before dissipating near Jan Mayen on August 25.


2001 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed: June 4, 2001
Last storm dissipated: December 6, 2001
Strongest storm: Michelle - 933 mbar (hPa) (27.56 inHg),
Total storms: 15
Hurricanes: 9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 4
Total fatalities: 105
Total damage: $7.1 billion (2001 USD)
$8.1 billion (2006 USD)

Tropical Storm Barry (2001)
Barry formed from a tropical wave in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on August 2. Moving westward, it weakened to a tropical depression, and was expected to continue to the west-northwest. Instead, the ridge to Barry's north degraded, allowing the system to turn northward and restrengthen to tropical storm strength on the 5th. It peaked that night at 70 mph, but some southwesterly shear prevented the storm from reaching hurricane strength. Barry made landfall near Santa Rosa Beach, Florida on August 6 as a strong tropical storm with a developing eyewall, leading to the possibility of Barry being a hurricane. After making landfall, the remnants of Barry continued inland, and dissipated over Missouri on the 8th.


2004 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed: July 31, 2004
Last storm dissipated: December 2, 2004
Strongest storm: Ivan - 910 mbar (hPa) (26.88 inHg), 165 mph (270 km/h)
Total storms: 15
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 6
Total fatalities: 3,132+
Total damage: $42 billion (2004 USD)
$44.9 billion (2006 USD)

Hurricane Alex (2004)
The first storm of the season formed at the end of July off the coast of South Carolina. Alex strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, and on August 3 came within 10 miles (16 km) of the Outer Banks of North Carolina without making landfall. Damage was limited to flooding and wind damage, and in Dare County, North Carolina, was estimated at $2.4 million. There were several injuries and one death reported.[10]

Alex later headed out to sea and strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane, making it only the second hurricane on record to have reached Category 3 strength north of 38 N latitude, before becoming extratropical over the north Atlantic.
STL and : weatherboykris come to my blog
STL, I don't care about the "supposedly according to some people (not you or wbk, you guys are knowledgable; I look up to you) 2007 is slow" thing, it's just the SAL bothers me. I've never seen this much dust before. I didn't observe it until 2006 though, so what do I know.
Taz, I'm coming too.
ok : KoritheMan
sorry i wasn't screaming at anyone earlier.
evere one oh is her come to my blog and will have a party
taz i will go to your blog now.
jeez guys it seems like we really need a storm. Without we are going crazy!
iam coming too taz
Thanks Dr.M for the update onto the tropics!
hello. when do you think 97l would form, dr m
The train looks to be starting over Africa:

Link
also taz which blog your wunderblog or a different one? blob is twitching:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
sj i would like you to email me if psbl.
blob is twitchin. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
sigh so bored..... so sad.
if anybody is there still you guys are welcome to visit the cape weather live chat room if you wnat to know how to get there just let me know.
ultimatum:

ABNT20 KNHC 210204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

I am still learning and thanks to all. I am an EE by training and I do have a strong desire to learn more of the met world. Yes, blog is slow which is the only reason I am willing to say this now. It will be active too soon. Thanks again for all of your knowledge.
hey melbourne and for other you guys know how when you go to type a comment there is a thing about that says weather chat? that is a live chat room like stormchat and anyone who is a member here can talk there. please feel free to drop by it anytime it is faster to talk there than here.
well it looks like everyone went to bed. goodnight all.
hold on there texascanecaster1, some of us get real excited by the lack of storms
Virginislands - i would have to agree with you LOL
Look at this Link and see if this is convection trying to form around the leftover low coc?
269. 0741
but ull still their
MLCgoodnight4.gif

MLC <--------------out for some shut-eye! Nite, everyone!
271. RL3AO
Cosme is dead dead dead. Can't even see the swirl real well.
I know, and I thought it would become a tropical storm again just two days ago.
hold on there texascanecaster1, some of us get real excited by the lack of storms

I don't...
Looks like the LLC is breaking away from the convection. Cosme is close to death.


I wonder if this is the one?? Already had rotation as it came off the coast....We will see how it holds up the next day or 2.
SAL is high in the area, Fshhead. As always... What else is new...

I know that this is not going to be a slow season (or so I don't think and it hasn't been slow thus far either; it's been slightly above average), but SAL is getting ridiculous lately.

It may develop though. I don't want a storm to hit land as anything more than a tropical storm (I don't even want that, but a TS would be the most I would not mind hitting somewhere), but I want something to track. If it recurves okay, but it least it's something to track. SAL is annoying the crap out of me.
Kori, tell you what, I am not sure how long the buzzsaw is going to stay in place but, if it hangs around & any system gets near it, I think I heard John Gerard on NBC news say steered or sheared lol. By the way being in Miami, I LOVE these ULL'S & the SAL(I call it majic fairy dust lol)
I don't like the SAL or ULL's.... How am I supposed to watch development? I like to study tropical cyclones and other weather like snowstorms, severe weather, etc. The harm I don't want, but I do like to study them......

I'm already in a bad mood tonight, but I won't take it out on anyone here. It's just I don't think the SAL will taper off at all until at least August 15.
Kori like a I said here earlier. I am POSITIVE you guys will have something to track within a month or so. Sept is the height of the season. Sure you will track something then. I just hope its not headin' my way while we are trackin' it lol
The sal is alittle tough out there cv because the water is alittle too cold. Look at the water temp loop once the Cape verde Is. is in the 80 or so we will see development. Some yrs are better than other out there. Hope everyone is having fun. I am watching the Billabong Jefferys Bay World Surfing Contest from Africa live. ASP World Tour
I aint no science guy. The big Kahuna stomped Cosmo
Wow what a lightning storm over the gulf stream here in E Cen Fl. Seems like a wave moving into the leeward is pulsing alittle.
3 waves


Fsh,

There's two more behind it. I think at least an invest should come of one of these three systems. It's not going to be long durations of time inbetween emergence off the African coast. SAL should have a tougher time building up behind their passge.
284. IKE
Trouble ahead in the western Caribbean????

Link
Looks like we will have a developing system today. Maybe that area south of Bermuda will be a td today. Hopefully pump some waves for us surfers in Fl.
286. IKE
Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 21, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...


disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from the central
Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred
miles and are associated with an upper-low interacting with a
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development
at this time.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Looks pretty impressive on the visiable. What do you think ike?
Good Morning all,

Anything of interest going on in the tropics this morn? Is that low still 'forecast" to form off of the Carolina coast or has that changed too?
Still watching that area above Puerto Rico, let's see if it gets picked up by the front and go out to sea, if not well who knows but conditions are going to become very favorable soon
290. 900MB
Looks like my little swirl South of Cuba survived the night...still worth watching..awfully warm waters in the Yucatan basin..we'll see!
900mb,

If this thing belongs to you, can we sue if it grows into a cat5 monster and sends Tampa to oblivion?! ; ) j/k
292. IKE
Posted By: leftovers at 6:32 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
Looks pretty impressive on the visiable. What do you think ike?


A lot of shear around...from the models I've looked at...it should move north....no development.

Now the SW Caribbean might be a different story. Note the clouds coming off of South America..east of Panama.
293. 900MB
Not mine, I don't own it...just think for some reason that the next td will come out of that specific area. Psychic forecasting..about as good as any other method.
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 11:40 AM GMT on July 21, 2007. (hide)
Still watching that area above Puerto Rico, let's see if it gets picked up by the front and go out to sea, if not well who knows but conditions are going to become very favorable soon.

Not until those ULL's move out of the vicinity.Things look quite through the weekend.Adrian
IKE,

There does appear to be some type of vorticy there and perhaps some turning in the low levels.

What you don't want to see are those banding features to the north start to become stationary and develop convection. Then some kind of cyclogenisis might be occuring...

If anything does develop lets hope upper low over northwest caribbean remains in place to keep it in check and deflect it away. If it starts retreating into Mexico....look out.
Nothing to significant but things continue to look more interesting with GFS.

Here is the 6Z run which you can see how its developing things out in the eastern atlantic.
297. IKE
Posted By: sullivanweather at 7:06 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
IKE,

There does appear to be some type of vorticy there and perhaps some turning in the low levels.


I noticed some turning....

I also noticed on the GFS model run that the wave/low train is about a week away from getting going..if the model holds true.

Hey Koritheman, some of us actually like SAL AND windshear. Maybe you don't pay attention to the price of gasoline or Crude. Crude closed at $75.57 per barrel on Friday. Keep in mind that Crude peaked around $78 a barrel after Katrina & Rita. We are not far from record highes and this is without a single storm threat in the GOM. Barry was in the GOM but wasn't a threat to offshore oil facilities.

Don't forget that Florida received a lot of hurricane damage in both 2004 & 2005. The insurance rates went through the roof & subsided a little bit after 2006 was a bust. I fell asleep last night before the news came on but the TV 20 news commercial mentioned that either Allstate or State Farm wanted to cancel homeowners policies within 5 miles of the coast.

So you still want lots & lots of Hurricanes?
Posted By: GainesvilleGator at 8:12 AM EDT on July 21, 2007.
Hey Koritheman, some of us actually like SAL AND windshear. Maybe you don't pay attention to the price of gasoline or Crude. Crude closed at $75.57 per barrel on Friday. Keep in mind that Crude peaked around $78 a barrel after Katrina & Rita. We are not far from record highes and this is without a single storm threat in the GOM. Barry was in the GOM but wasn't a threat to offshore oil facilities.

Don't forget that Florida received a lot of hurricane damage in both 2004 & 2005. The insurance rates went through the roof & subsided a little bit after 2006 was a bust. I fell asleep last night before the news came on but the TV 20 news commercial mentioned that either Allstate or State Farm wanted to cancel homeowners policies within 5 miles of the coast.

So you still want lots & lots of Hurricanes?


I sometimes wonder if people who want these hurricanes even own a home or any type of property. I do understand the need for hurricanes to study them, etc., but wishing for them makes no sense at all.

By the way, it was State Farm who said they are dropping 50,000 homeowners. I don't live in Florida but still keep up with what's going on down there. State Farm was our carrier when we owned our home down there.
I give an 80% chance that we'll see an invest with one of the next 3 waves coming off Africa.

They all look formidable and they're coming off the coast in close sucession. This should prevent the amount of SAL that has been flooding in behind the previous waves, giving them more moisture to work with.

Quite a few waves have already come off the coast this year with a decent vorticy associated with them, but the SAL killed them off.
If the organization that some of the previous waves have shown continue once the SAL drops off we could be looking at a very big Cape Verde season.

301. IKE
Looks like the ULL in the NW Caribbean is weakening....


"Caribbean Sea...
weakening cut-off upper low remains centered NW of the Cayman
Islands near 21n82w covering the area N of 18n from 78w to the
Yucatan Channel generating scattered showers/thunderstorms
within 120 nm along the coast of Cuba from 78w-84w. Broad upper
high anchored just E of the Lesser Antilles extends a ridge axis
E across the remainder of the Caribbean enhancing scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms N of 17n from 74w-87w. The ITCZ
axis in the E Pacific region extends from Colombia across S
Panama generating clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection S of 12n from 75w-78w to inland over Colombia and E
Panama. Moderate easterly trade winds continuing across the
S/central Caribbean."
Dr. Masters,
Just my personal opinion, but if you don't knock off this office politics crap soon your blog and you will dissolve into complete irrelevency. Quit yammering, prove your point with results...that is what we do in science!
I'm not a weather guru but the Gulf looks as if its trying to swirl. I know the water is warm, is this something to be concerned with?
Didereaux,

How could you blame the man. If you're not living in Miami, or Houston, or New Orleans you're not hearing much about the going ons with this very important issue. I don't know who's in Masters' inner circle, but some of those involved in this may be.

As far as his statements as the NHC director being the 'most important job in weather'...he may be right. No other job in weather demands the responsibility of trying to save as many lives as the NHC has to.
Hurricanes are the biggest weather disaster that could happen, arguably.

this is awesome, when did they start putting up this wide view on noaa?

its at most been within the past 3-4 days that they put it up on here, I like it
Well, the unreliable NAM is calling for something in the western Carribean by Tuesday...LOL.
StoryOfThe I posted a comment on your blog didn't know you were over here on this one.
lol, you just answered your own question!!

Yeah, the new view is awesome
Eaglesrock, just updated my blog with forecast for 1st 1/2 of august and a commentary on the phantom heat wave
haha yeah Ive been stayin hidden the past week or so, been kinda boring in the tropics. cant complain about that though.
Sulliv do you know where in the southeast the tropical weather will be at?
LOL

I haven't gotten that far...

But I can tell you this. A few good waves are about to move off, shear is going to be relaxing and that bermuda high is building towards the west.

Unfortunately this isn't a good combo
314. IKE
Posted By: eaglesrock at 8:09 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
Well, the unreliable NAM is calling for something in the western Carribean by Tuesday...LOL.


I hear ya. LOL!

Occasionally they are correct on disturbances down there. I remember last year they were..sometimes.

I wouldn't bet my paycheck on it!
Hello all....I have done a considerable about of research this AM, as I have a husband on an LST, yes, I said, LST, about to turn right at 26N/75W to head direct to the Virgins. Could anyone supply a good link to allow me to receive accurate forecasts of this system and the progress of our little red blob which is in the Atlantic, just North of PR? Sure would appreciate it.
Link
islandaerie: I can't tell you what's going to happen at 26N,75W...looks clear right now based on this water vapor imagery though. (In case you don't already know, click on Lat Long in upper left hand corner for grids.)...By "take a right" I gather you mean go south?
Morning all.
That new wave off Africa looks good. But there's too much SAL near it. It won't develop unless it decreases.
Is this what you mean by LST?
Landing Ship, Tank
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The tank landing ship (LST, for "Landing Ship, Tank") was created during World War II to support amphibious operations by carrying significant quantities of vehicles, cargo, and landing troops directly onto an unimproved shore. More than a thousand of these ships were laid down in the United States during WWII. Eighty were built in UK and Canada to a modified design and known as LST (3).

August 3rd...I believe you but I don't believe you at the same time...it will be near that date. Thanks Stormkat for the post...LOL. BTW, how was your fishing trip? You probably just went to the store to get a can of tuna...LOL
Thanks Chiklit...I have seen those images, and wind and seas are down in the area. I am hoping for a "brush by" to the East which might suck wind out of the transit route but so far, been unsuccessful in finding a prognosis for this thing. Do not want increase in seas. but I like the SAL alot...and thanks for the feedback.
islandaerie, Some of the posters on here are very knowlegeable and have blogs of their own that you can go to for more indepth analyses.
I suggest you check with some of them as they'll be posting here soon. Sometimes you have to ask the same question more than once because the blog moves.
Yes, Chicklit, its the very same, but this one is only around 50' long, flat bottomed, with a big flat slablike "nose" to deal with seas. Obviously, I am hoping for a millpond. Right....
So the snub nosed LST Lists??? Or does it just wash over?
Hey stormkat, is it just me or have these waves off of Africa been kinda big. We always see lots of waves come off Africa in May-Jul but they pretty much fizzle out after a couple of days because of cold water, dry air, or wind shear. Unless I didn't pay much attention to them in the past they seem kinda big to me this year.

If some of these big waves develop we may see one of those Floyd/Hugo size storms ramp up. Nevermind Andrew, beware of those big boys.
ST has spoken.
331. Murko
I have a couple of questions for you StormKat: Do you know where your capslock key is? Why do you feel the need to type in upper case?
NRL Global Imagery Link
Islandaerie, a couple of blogs you can check out are StormW and StormJunkie...I'm sure there are others, but those come to mind. If you e-mail them directly, I'll bet you'll get an answer, too. (Their posts are probably further behind in the blog or will be upcoming.) Hope this helps.
I think everyone that needs to be prepared is by now. At least most are. I know that the EOC here in Hillsborough and Pinellas is very prepared.
Posted By: Growcartmozart at 1:59 PM GMT on July 21, 2007.
Why is everyone here so down on Stormkat. From my perspective, he has been a top notch forecaster. It seems like the more accurate he is, the more grief you give him. Could it be jealousy of his abilities?


He is right perhaps percentagewise. His tone turns most off except for the most masochistic among us. I know I'm not a forecaster. I just can't envision any sane reason for using that tone except in a political debate and then it just makes you look stupid then also.

Sorry Stormkat but people would listen much better if your tone was about 99% less condescending. You have talent, it's a shame to waste it.

Back to lurking.
Chicklit, don't like to use either of those terms, but if water enters, it is supposed to wash over, so to speak...i.e. self bailing. The crew is using a trailer lashed down to the bed/deck for off watch etc. I trust them all, professionals at what they do...but will be happy when day 7, plus/minus rolls around. I am a wx watcher--just what I do.
good morning all

Well, today I am off to the Big Apple for 8 days of shows, good food and wine and just some old fashioned R&R. This is the time to take vacation because I expect that within the next week to 10 days we will likely see another system fire up. The wave that just came off near 12N 21W looks to have a circulation going and I would not be surprised if something came of this one by the time it reaches 45W ( assuming it doesn't curve to the N before then of course ! )
Posted By: Murko at 9:01 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
I have a couple of questions for you StormKat: Do you know where your capslock key is? Why do you feel the need to type in upper case?


Because hes insecure and rude.And hes no forecaster.Thats for sure.A forecaster and person of Met knowledge has etiquette and poise in posting.
Not the brute force shove it down yer throat tactic.
Thats for simple minds.
341. PBG00
Just ignore the tone...funny thing is he has a tendancy to be right..Take his info as you will.
Guys, there is only ONE factor we can basically count on...

That is the steering currents are NOT like 2006. Get that out of your minds. The threat of a storm striking the U.S. this season is very real and very probable.

Having said that, when, where and how many is impossible to predict.
Hes an idiot of the Highest order,,..I take my info from me own brain.It dont swell as much..
344. PBG00
So with the GOM being a likel;y target..does that let s. fla as far a direct hit goes,off the hook(assuming no wilma type situation happens)
Lucky if he knows his RIGHT from his left.Or Port to starboard that is..
Ah, Stormkat, the Oracle from on high. What would we do without you ? LOL
348. PBG00
He likes gettin a rise out of all of you..He knows the caps pi** you all off. Ignore him if ya don't like it.Why engage?
Yeah I like Stormkat. His forecasts are surprisingly right a lot of the time and if a hurricane forms on August 3rd, I'll trust him.
A target from what..a imagined storm?.There are no threats,no areas of interest.
A drunk mongoose in Baghdad could say the season will ramp up in 2 weeks.
Its climatology ,duh.
Not a magical puff of SK smoke.
Get a grip.
All the tools are here to keep up on the season.Period
Marines always engage.

Kids follow kids ..LOL
Posted By: PBG00 at 2:09 PM GMT on July 21, 2007.

So with the GOM being a likel;y target..does that let s. fla as far a direct hit goes,off the hook(assuming no wilma type situation happens)


IMO anywhere from the Leeward Islands, to the SE Coast of the US, the GOM and the NW Caribbean will likely be in the cross hairs this year IF the big high out in the ATL sets up as predicted and as indicated for this year.

We could see 2 or 3 of those long track Cape Verde systems entering the Caribbean in the SE of the basin much like 2004. This, IMO, is the biggest threat this year, particularly if any of them track over the very high heat potential in the NW Caribbean
A drunk mongoose in Baghdad could say the season will ramp it in 2 weeks.

The sad thing is I can see the little creature siting in the desert street, saying "AHHHHH forget Rikki Tikki Tavi and all that, (burp, the ocean waters will boil with the wrath of the giant cobra in two weeks. Pass the Boones Farm or mad dog or whatever mongoose's drink currently." Hiccup. He has a little green hat and a scarf on like an organ grinders monkey.

Whoever said we are going nuts without a storm is correct. I'm going to go back to my old hobbies to preserve what sanity is left.
355. PBG00
Not everyone on here knows climatology duh..
Right?..Stormkat has never been right about anything..hes just Loud..LOL.
357. PBG00
We could see 2 or 3 of those long track Cape Verde systems entering the Caribbean in the SE of the basin much like 2004. This, IMO, is the biggest threat this year, particularly if any of them track over the very high heat potential in the NW Caribbean

Thts what concerns me..2004 sucked..and was very expensive.
Hey Hey guys leave the drunk mongoose out of this ok! he's pretty reliable with his tropics forecast matter of fact he's Instant Messaging me right now saying yes he agrees with StormKat.
I think that a large part of the bickering on this blog is the result of too many people trying to be "right" and too many others trying to prove they were "wrong".

Weather predicting is inexact even for the very best of the experts and for arm chair forecasters ( as most of us on here are, including myself as I have no met training at all )to squabble over whose predictions are or are not likely to be right or wrong is, frankly, laughable.

This should be a place where weather enthusiasts come to exchange ideas, enjoy each others company and watch the season unfold. Unfortunately, there is too much else going on most of the time for that.

Just my 2 cents FWIW.
Kinda like politics in a weather blog.Its easy to step in it ..like weve seen around here for the last 2 weeks.But the odor from politics and weather being mixed..will linger here well into the season.And its not the posters who brought it here.It was the admins choice.So..here we are.
islandaerie

I have sent you email re: Wx resources
CRS
Oh you saved lives on the wunderground blog? Wow thats impressive.
366. PBG00
Kman..You are right..also some thin skins around here..everything is sooo personal..kind of like enough already....

anyway..Pat I, like I should be, am prepared for whatever comes my way..but i don't get the climatology stuff..so I look for any of those precursers that would hint of the season one way or the other.
LOL.SK
368. eye
you all need to read your Harry Potter book....nothing happening in the tropics...lol
370. PBG00
LOL you guys are funny.
And regarding "getting it 5 days before NHC"....

Anyone can throw darts at the dartboard.

Eventually, one hits the bullseye.
Here is something to watch over the next few days. Maybe it will distract everyone from the bickering LOL

SK- Pat doesn't come here and give bad information. Now that I think about it, none of us come on here and give bad information.

We give forecasts to the best of our abilities.
Posted By: stormkat at 2:03 PM GMT on July 21, 2007.

im predicting 4 major hurricanes and 2 will hit the the GOM THIS YEAR....GUYS THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA....IT WIL BREAK LOSE IN 2 WEEKS THE SST ARE HEATING UP AND SSP ARE FALLING...I DONT LIKE THIS AT ALL...ALL YOU PEOPLE IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT ALONG THE GOM...THIS IS SERIOUS GUYS IM NOT PLAYING THE INFO I JUST LOOKED AT IS NOT GOOD DOWN THE ROAD....StormKat


Care to share this info Stormkat with the blog or Dr.Masters? Why only the GOM? What about the Bahamas, Bermuda East Coast, Florida?
Well gotta finish packing for my trip. Take it easy until I get back next week Sunday guys LOL

Very nice Pat! Very nice,
Hey Pat, I always knew you were a good guy but you just went up several notches in my estimation. Well done
Great Work Pat! Have a Good trip Kman.
yeah good joob pat. I had my hands full just taking care of myself and a few neighbors. Congrats
Thanks Sporteguy

I am planning to buy a new laptop in NY so if the tropics heat up I may get in a post or two before I return. If not C U when I get back.

Have a good day and weekend all
Im out to go do groceries..NAwlins style..Later guys and gals.Have a good morning.
385. eye
i tell yah, that wave off africa has to be the slowest I have seen in a while...it must be just drifting....and if it stays right off Africa too much longer it will go "poof" b/c the SST's are cooler than normal
Have a good one KMan...I will miss your observations.
Stormkat

Would you be so kind in sharing why you believe all hell will break lose in the coming weeks? I am very interested in your reasoning behind this.
Posted By: amazinwxman at 2:22 PM GMT on July 21, 2007.
Hey Hey guys leave the drunk mongoose out of this ok! he's pretty reliable with his tropics forecast matter of fact he's Instant Messaging me right now saying yes he agrees with StormKat.


I hope whoever those people are that someone suggested watched this board for current information and took EVERYTHING seriously and perhaps even reported?? it is taking notes in detail.

I can see it in their "report",......... one of the posters reports seeing drunk cat like mammal while the other is getting IM's from said mammal. We believe stormkat may be a plant from the either the kgb or the twc and his posts are infected with hallucinogenic phrases, said phrases may inflict damage on the nasaal passages as one poster has reported a lingering odor.
LOL
sorrrrrrrrrrrrrry

Have a GREAT vacation K-man.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


Could get interesting...
Some brimstone baritone anticyclone rolling stone preacher from the east.. That's great Growcart
394. IKE
What area 23? That's a rather broad area covered by the TWO.

If anyone believes this...here's the latest NAM run....

Link
395. IKE
Posted By: Smyrick145 at 10:01 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
Stormkat

Would you be so kind in sharing why you believe all hell will break lose in the coming weeks? I am very interested in your reasoning behind this.


That's a problem with SK...he just comes and goes.

The tropics are fixin to get going in the Atlantic....the odds of something NOT forming are decreasing.
396. CJ5
It appears there is not much action going on (good). We shall all be watching the waves off Africa for the next possible problem. I think everyone agrees that the conditions favor an active season. We shall see. I also think everyone can agree from a pure science standpoint the more active the better and from a personal standpoint the less active the better.

I will promise not to post anything political and I hope everyone else does the same.

Stormkat...keep saving lives, go you! lol.

397. IKE
Posted By: CJ5 at 10:15 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
It appears there is not much action going on (good).


According to the latest from NHC, the going may get going soon.
I see StormKat catching some more flack this morning. I don't have a problem with SK but he does need to work on his communication skills. It is important to NOT use all caps when sending a message. All caps should only be used to emphasize key words.

I think SK can be quite popular on WU & well liked if he worked on being nice. It is hard work going out of your way to be courteous. Being kind to others on here will result in priceless dividends.

SK, remember no ALL CAPS & be nice :-)
399. ryang
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
Patrap: Just got back from NO Monday. Fun city despite the rain. Will definately go back.
With the approaching cold front i suspect anything the forms in the area will likely remain out to sea.
The front has really pushed thru the Northern GOM..and the N winds are just delicious.Humidity way down.Another East coast trof..that may spin up off the Carolinas.a much awaited invest.Maybe by tomorrow.

Link
Glad you enjoyed your stay weathers4me.We much appreciate your coming and enjoying.Today is Magnificent here.
Yes..July has its aft boomers..LOL
405. CJ5
The wave at 18/13 has some good rotation, is north of the ITCZ, moving into an area of limited shear and moist air. Of course, right now that could be said about all of these waves of late, inlcuding 96L. The super dry air that seemed to clear out (somewhat) last week in the CATL has returned.
The Waterspout Thursday for those who missed it here,...Link
I know the NAM hasn't quite hit anything on the spot so far this season...lol (understatement). But if you look at the area that just came of of south america...there is heavy convection firing up...and it looks like some sort of circulation near that. Looks like thats what the NAM might be picking up. But again...the models haven't been doing so hot!
Patrap. The people were all very nice and the Sheraton was beautiful. Lost my shirt at Harra's casino, and had some Bubba Gump shrimp. What a good "adult" weekend without the kids. For all those who give NO a bad rap. Shame on you..
It aint what the naysayers write,for most of them have never been . The Sheraton is a FAv of ours.We stayed in Nov 05 up on the club level for a weekend just to get outta the trailer for a weekend.Loved it.A tourist in ones own city. Really nice to here from a wu-member whos seen. Thanks again..and GO Saints!
410. RM706
Wow. I've been lurking for a year now and I have to wonder if Pat and SK are best friends IRL.

I grew up in Texas chasing tornados out in fields in the middle of nowhere with my friends. Seems to me that anyone who is passionate about weather feels they have some Native American in them wanting to share thier unique gift with the world...hehe

But seriously, I have enjoyed Pat and SK and I can respect them both along with many others here. I hae wanted to share my forecasts, Satelite opinions and whatknot (pun) but I feel too much of a newb when it cames to this fancy technology.

I still chase tornados here in NE Florida and have on occasion taken a coworker out to show them a tornado as it forms and touches down. Yes I have been lucky it that regard.

FYI, I am a horrible speller and proof reader so please bare with me. And if I get flamed, I will not likely post often. I suffer from similar things as SK demonstrates...LOL (sorry SK)

I try really hard to not over use CAPS but like SK, it gets away form me. I hope NOT to offend ANYONE (lol).

Looking forward to getting to know you guys and hopefully you will be interested in getting to know me.

As far as I can tell I am the boards only Bubblehead (submariner;fast attack) so I will sign as...

-Bubblehead
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 21 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-059 (CORRECTED TAKE OFF TIME)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE

A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W
E. 18Z 21Z
F. 1500 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W
F. 05Z 09Z
G. SFC 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SMR


An invest will likely be tagged on this area later this afternoon but as i stated a track out to sea looks like a good bet with the approaching cold front.
412. IKE
Posted By: KYhomeboy at 10:31 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.
I know the NAM hasn't quite hit anything on the spot so far this season...lol (understatement). But if you look at the area that just came of of south america...there is heavy convection firing up...and it looks like some sort of circulation near that. Looks like thats what the NAM might be picking up. But again...the models haven't been doing so hot!


I agree about the NAM.

I see an area north of Puerto Rico + one coming off of South America...on water vapor loop...

Link
Its all good..SK and I respect our weird ways ,,to a point.We all in this game together. Its best we give and take.
Our friend and fellow wu-blogger sandcrab is going to be BarometerBobs guest this week. Check out the broadcast and interview this Thursday night at 8pmEST. Link

"Posted By: stormkat at 9:11 AM CDT on July 21, 2007.

i would be happy to share them with you growcartmazart....i for one do not use computers i think they are the biggest waste of time during hurricane season especially for GOM STORMS...THE REASON WHY I USE CAPS IS TO GET MY POINT ACROSS..."


And the reason I use the ignore key is to get MY point across (notice the appropriate use of the caps key...)
Good morning, all. Is anyone talking about the weather today?
Man I live south of miami,and it looks like its going to be a very stormy day. We are under a severe thunderstorm watch till 9 p.m.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST


YAY! I GET TO USE MY NEW HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT AND DATA TRACKER!
G'day, all!

Currently in Nassau we have rain (started about 20 minutes ago). I'm assuming this is prefrontal. Hopefully this will pass and push whatever is hanging around that ULL off to the east or north . . .
new blogLink
424. Murko
Baha, we just had about 40 mins rain, and one rumble of thunder in North Eleuthera, too. I don't think the blob skirting Grand Bahama will make it this far. Is the general weather moving up from the south for us? If so, probably just some local moisture. The water in front of my house is over 105F.
marlinsfan1 - we are under the same watch until 9 up here in Tampa. The whole area is. I guess they suspect lots of blowups over the entire state as this front pushes through.
Sure Storm... Basically it is a free program that uses Google earth to track the hurricane hunter's flight path then when the HH's send data back through there vortex messages then it gets translated from the program and pop's up in Google earth so you can see where they are and the data they are sending back.. I will post a screenshot when they are in flight today.
N Atlantic Imagery..Link
I am at a loss to understand the criticism of Proenza on QuickSCAT.
1) QuickSCAT makes hurricane forecasts more accurate.
2) Risking lives sending in more planes because we can not find the money to replace QuickSCAT is immoral! Have you read Master's description of how he almost lost his life on such a flight?
3) All the discussion of public confidence in the NHC sounds like hollow PR positioning to me. Is there really any doubt that the forecasts are better with QuickSCAT? Lets look more at reality and less at public perceptions.
4) Other weather forecasters need QuickSCAT. Proenza knows that from his previous jobs. Pacific tropical storm forecasters need QuickSCAT and can't replace it with more plane flights.
5) Just to inject some politics, we are spending hundreds of billions on a PR job of a war in Iraq, billions in tax breaks for the wealthy, and can't afford to replace a single aging weather satellite? Give me a break!

Full disclosure: I am living on my boat in the Caribbean and the forecasters I use refer to QuickSCAT data daily and would have no alternative data available should it fail.