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QuikSCAT satellite showing its age; ASCAT satellite helping out

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on December 05, 2007

The now-famous QuikSCAT satellite, which measures winds at the ocean surface world-wide twice per day, was launched in 1999, and has now exceeded its expected lifetime by several years. A reminder of this satellite's age came during the week of November 21-28, when one of the cells on the satellite's battery went bad, forcing engineers to shut off data gathering on the satellite for about 10-15 minutes as it crossed over land in the Arctic. As a result, QuikSCAT provided only half of its usual data on winds and sea ice in the Arctic during that week. Fortunately, engineers were able to swap in a spare battery cell on November 28, and QuikSCAT is now back at full operation. This is good news, since QuikSCAT is a huge help for marine forecasts, sea ice forecasts, and predictions of tropical storms.

QuikSCAT now has help. An important new source of QuikSCAT-like data has been made available by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). They launched their first polar-orbiting satellite, Metop-A, in October 2006, and declared the satellite ready for routine operations as of May 2007. This satellite carries a scatterometer called ASCAT which, like QuikSCAT, measures the winds at the ocean surface. ASCAT doesn't "see" the Earth's surface as well as QuikSCAT can--ASCAT sees chunks of the surface 25 km by 25 km, while QuikSCAT has a resolution twice as good--12.5 km. In addition, ASCAT only sees 60% of what QuikSCAT sees of the Earth's surface--QuikSCAT sees a swath of ocean 1800 km wide, while ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. I found it frustrating to use ASCAT much this hurricane season, since it seemed that the passes missed the center of circulation of a storm of interest about 75% of the time.


Figure 1. Comparison of the coverage pattern of the QuikSCAT and ASCAT satellites, from December 4, 2007. Image credit: NOAA.

However, ASCAT has an important advantage--it can measure ocean surface winds where heavy rain is occurring, something QuikSCAT cannot. Both instruments carry an "active" radar (also called a scatterometer)--an instrument that emits a pulse of microwave energy that bounces off the ocean surface and returns to the satellite. The amount of microwave energy bounced back to the instrument is inversely proportional to how rough the sea surface is, and one can compute the wind speed and direction at the ocean surface based on this information. QuikSCAT uses microwave energy with a wavelength of about 2 cm (Ku-band), which is significantly affected by heavy rain. Microwave radiation from ASCAT uses a wavelength of about 5 cm (C-band), which is much less affected by rain. Thus, ASCAT can retrieve winds more accurately in the heavier precipitation environments such as those found in hurricanes. However, QuikSCAT does have finer spatial resolution and better sensitivity to high winds than ASCAT. Another minor advantage of ASCAT is that the winds across the entire swath of ocean it looks at are of uniform accuracy. QuikSCAT, on the other hand, has a bit larger errors at the edge of its 1800 km-wide swath, and in the middle, making it more difficult to interpret the data in some cases.

QuikSCAT data is routinely ingested into all of the major computer models that forecast hurricanes. ASCAT data is not yet used in this way, since ASCAT is currently still in its calibration and validation phase. However, by the 2008 hurricane season, ASCAT data will probably be used in this fashion. Having ASCAT to complement QuikSCAT will be a big help to NHC forecasters, particularly for those storms far out at sea where the Hurricane Hunters cannot reach.

ASCAT data is available from the ASCAT web page. QuikSCAT expert Dr. Paul Chang of NOAA also has ASCAT data available on his NOAA Marine Observing Systems web page.

Next blog
This Friday, the Colorado State University team issues its first forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. I'll present an analysis of the forecast Friday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

QuikSCAT



Link

Measuring Ocean Surface Wind Vectors
Scanning method for the single swath scatterometer.
Scanning method for the single swath scatterometer instrument on the ERS satellites of the European Space Agency. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) to be flown on Metop satellites will have a similar scanning mechanism but with a double swath, one on either side of the satellite track (ESA image).
EUMETSAT,What we do..Link
thanks for the 1st GW blog dr m oh you got mail dr m
Thanks for the new blog Doc. Any word on if or when they plan a replacment to Quikscatt?
Forecast to reach hurricane strength as it nears Fiji.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 05/1340 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8 SOUTH
176.4 EAST AT 051200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 47 WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERAL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SOME SHEAR PROHIBITING BANDS FROM
STAYING WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC ESPECIALLY TO SOUTH AND WEST. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT STILL EVIDENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. DVORAK
BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT 3.0. PAT AGREES. MET
IS 3.0, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF A 250-HPA
OUTFLOW AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH.
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND LATER
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
TRACK PROJECTION WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 060000 UTC NEAR 14.5S 175.3E MOV SW 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 061200 UTC NEAR 15.9S 175.8E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 070000 UTC NEAR 15.5S 175.4E MOV SE 07KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 071200 UTC NEAR 16.4S 176.8E MOV SE 07KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC DAMAN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 051930 UTC.

Wow Dr.Masters thank you for the post 2007 Tropical Season Quickscat update
Thanks, Dr Masters for the QS update.

Just curious......uuuuuummmmmm, how'd they replace that battery? I'm sure it was quite technical, but somehow I pictured NASA taking the back off the remote control and swapping out some triple A Coppertops! But, hey, the way QS has been going and going, it must be running on the Energizer Bunny batteries! lol
Does anyone have satellite pics of the storm that hit the North West early this week? I heard a report on NPR this morning that it was as big as the continental US! I'm doubtful, but I can't find anything and wanted to know if any of you had it.

thanks!
MODIS Rapid responce Imagery. Dec-4 Nw USA
Link
Global Mosaic subsets from MODIS
Link
Image of the NW Storm

whazzzup?
Somewhat related to QuikSCAT is the apparant failure of the GOES-12 satellite, which has been replaced by GOES-10 until the problem is fixed (hopefully...)

Subject: GI: GOES-East GINI/NOAAPORT Status 12/5/07 - Issued 12/5/07
Topic: GOES-East GINI/NOAAPORT Status
Message Issued: December 5, 2007, 1620 UTC
Satellites Impacted: GOES-10
Products Impacted: GINI/NOAAPORT (AWIPS) GOES-10 Imager and Sounder Data
Date/Time of Initial Impact: December 5, 2007 1531 UTC

--------------------------
Details:

Following the GOES-12 anomaly situation that occurred on December 4,
2007, all GOES Ingest and NOAAPORT Interface (GINI) processing for
GINIEAST has been switched to GOES-10. GOES-10 is now scanning imager
and sounder in GOES-East mode, and is being ingested and processed
through the GINI to NOAAPORT.

NOAAPORT users should now see 15 minute Regional sectors being produced
from GOES-10, and half hourly National and Super National sectors being
produced from GOES-10 and GOES-11, beginning with the 16:01 UTC regional
(ECONUS).

---------------------------

Contact Information:
Brian Hughes
Satellite Services Division
NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD
301-763-8051 x106
Brian.Hughes@noaa.gov

See http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html for this and other
satellite related messages.
See http://www.ssd.noaa.gov for full GOES scanning schedules.

Link
That also explains why current GOES-12 images are cut off on the side, although the areas are close enough to each other (GOES-11 covers the western CONUS, some areas might be missed though):

This was on the NWS statement:
EQUIPMENT...
GOES-12 /GOES EAST/ WENT THROUGH A STATION KEEPING MANEUVER
YESTERDAY. THERE WAS AN ANOMALY WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE
MANEUVER. NOAA/NESDIS HAS BEEN UNABLE TO RE-ACQUIRE THE SATELLITE
SINCE THE STATION KEEPING MANEUVER. GOES-12 DATA WILL BE
UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. GOES-11 /GOES WEST/ HAS BEEN
PLACED INTO A 30 MINUTE FULL DISK MODE TO ASSIST IN COVERING THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT THIS DATA IS OF POOR QUALITY DUE TO
THE LOW VIEWING ANGLE OF GOES WEST WHICH IS GEOSTATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. NESDIS IS LOOKING INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF
USING GOES-10 TO COVER THE GOES EAST SCANNING SCHEDULE.
I was afraid something bad had happened to GOES-EAST.
If this global warming is real that is bad for the floridian fisherman. Red tide thrives in warm stagnate water it is only logical that there will be more frequent outbreaks in the future. Right now our beaches are covered with dead fish E Cent Fl. Redfish tripletail cobia and big mullet.
i hope they get goes 12 fix.
so where are the images I am seeing coming from.
neva mind....i see its goes-10
Re-aquiring can be troublesome after an Orbital repositioning. The Guys will reacquire it ,Im confident.
This is a very compact and very impressive storm, and its heading right for Fiji.



Eye structure has been evident for the past 6-12 hrs.

Thanks for the update Dr. I use to look forward to the December tropical outlook,but now I feel its meaningless, since conditions will change so much by next hurricane season,its really pointless to try to look so far ahead.




Tropical storm develops in the central Atlantic and moves across Puetro Rico, Hispaniola, etc... LOL... Probably won't happen, although such a track is reasonable with a strong ridge to the north.
27. JLPR
MichaelSTL i was looking at the same thing probably wont happen maybe the CMC just went completely crazy. :P
The cmc is being the cmc
So I take it that it is possible that for next years hurricane season, QS could end up failing and ASCAT could be what we will have to use?
I made some rough predictions for next year's hurricane season. I based it only on a couple factors so thats why it is a rough prediction:

My December forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

12-14 Named Storms
6-8 Hurricanes'
2-4 Major hurricanes

I made this a slightly conservative forecast. I based it upon my belief that next year will be a neutral ENSO year as I do not know of many, or any, times where there has been a el nino, la nina, and el nino in a row. Along with some climo mixed in and since most seasons in the past decade or so have been above average, I am predicting near-normal to slightly above average numbers for next year. Remember, these are only my rough predictions based upon limited factors and the forecast could possibly end up being conservative.
I am not sure why it doesn't do that in other ocean basins (an Atlantic thing?); in contrast, it was the only model that really did anything with what is now Daman a couple days ago. Of course, it does sometimes make fake storms elsewhere, but so do all of the other models.
Well the CMC is fairly good at predicting storms at forming, however most of the storms it predicts never actually form, but the storms that do form, are often shown by the CMC. Also, I noticed the CMC isnt very persistant with many of the "cyclones" it does form. I heard it was good in 2005 though when we had Western Pacific-like activity.
STl,it is strange the way it does it for the Atlantc,its been like that all year,since I haven't followed the models real close in previous years,do you know if its been like this in previous years?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MAY
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE SHOWERS. ALSO THIS SYSTEM WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS.
35. JLPR
well what we can do with the cmc
we have to accept it I guess :P
So from where would the low that would give birth to that Ts come from? and
How can anything form with such high shear in the Atlantic?
I see it difficult for a storm to form but i guess it isnt imposible.
:P
I would assume with such conditions there,at best it would be subtropical.
37. JLPR
vortfix wow lol you should had posted a few seconds before i posted the question lol
:P
JLPR.....LOL. The CMC likes to develop the mid and uppers in the Atlantic. Maybe that is what it is seeing.
TC Report out on Hurricane Ivo:

Link

Only one report left for the Epac till there done with those TC reports.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1800/1800 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY/RADAR OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 2015 UTC...

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

A southwesterly flow dominates most of the atmosphere from the surface to 200 mb. These winds are persisting to the south of a deep layer trough/low over the Northeastern United States. This flow is rather confluent and dry and thus fair weather dominates at the surface across the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the Southwest North Atlantic, this flow becomes a little more divergent aloft resulting in mid-upper level moisture from the East Coast to 50W north of 30N. At the surface, a cold front stretches across the Atlantic from a 1010 mb low near 29N/79W along 26N/70W 29N/60W 35N/50W. Isolated patches of shallow moisture accompanies this feature but fair weather dominates.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Exceptionally light trades are across the Caribbean this evening in response to a weak surface pressure pattern. Trades are generally light and variable at 5-10 knots. The ITCZ in association with the climatological monsoon low is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama and the Caribbean Sea south of 14N and west of 77W.

Meanwhile, very strong upper winds carrying cirrus with embedded shower-bearing clouds have invaded the Southern Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic south of 15N from 70W to 30W. This activity is associated with the outflow jet emanating from the Bolivian Upper High centered over Central South America. Scattered showers are possible elsewhere across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.

by W456
Its bearing down on the islands

Webcam Castaway Island Castaway Island - Fiji Webcam A view of the beach of the Castaway Island Resort, Fiji Islands.

The web cam shows the typical cloud cover and type ahead of approaching tropical cyclones.

... Record daily maximum snowfall set at Raleigh-Durham international
Airport today...

A record snowfall of trace was set at Raleigh-Durham international
Airport today. This is FIRST occurrence of snowfall at the
Raleigh-Durham international Airport on December 5th.


I dont live in Ralieigh, but it snowed at my house.Schools were closed here around the mountains/foothills.Black ice caused one wreck.


Now its raining, though local mets DID NOT predict precip.Forcast low here,around 2600f.t is 29.



Got to go..

Update. At 5:30 snow adisorys are now issued for N.C.
Wow Daman looks very impressive and quite compact looking. Also, it seems another invest has formed in the wpac. I expect probably one more storm will form before the year ends
Excellent Banding CDO


I'm sure this has been asked and answered several times, perhaps even in this blog. I've scrolled backwards somewhat and didn't see; but, please if it has, I'd appreciate a reference.

QuikSCAT. How big is it? And, with the shuttle system, why can't we go up and get it and haul it back down for re-outfitting? Shuttles have been used for deployment of sats. Couldn't NASA haul it back down after visiting the ISS, or would the ride down just be too fragile and risky?

If its size is okay and can withstand the ride, seems that recovery, re-outfitting and redeployment are prudent, not withstanding "disposable" concerns, i.e. - This day in age we tend to replace instead of repair, being cheaper!

TIA, for the comments! And please, pardon my ignorance on the logistics.
MLC..the Quickscat is a few years past its design Life.. Its been a true workhorse and a tribute to its designers and Builders.
A shuttle Flight isnt feasible. We dont retrieve Worn out Sats with the Orbiters. Plus..the remaining Shuttle Flights are Manifest to the Station. The Shuttle will Fly only One more Free Flight other than to the ISS. The Hubble Maintenance Flight in 08. And for that flight..a Standby Flight ready Shuttle will be on Pad 39B for rescue in case its required. The Hubble is in a Higher Orbit and Different inclination than the ISS. Thus the need for a rescue Shuttle in case of Tile damage or other emergency. So..Quickscat when she fails..will decay in orbit.Doomed to return to the atmosphere.

Hubble Repair Mission Link



Special Weather Bulletin for Rotuma and Fiji #7
============================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR REST OF FIJI

For the Northwest of Fiji Groups

Expect winds to increase to 35-55 km/h from this evening and increasing to 80-100 km/h from Friday afternoon.

For the Rest if Fiji

Expect winds to strengthen overnight and further increasing tomorrow.

For the Whole Country

Expect widespread rain becoming frequent with heavy falls and squally thunderstorms. Flooding of low lying area and sea flooding of low lying coastal area expected on Friday.

A Strong Wind Warning Remains in Force for Rotuma

Over Rotuma expect northwest winds 35-55 km/h and gusts up to 65 km/h easing to fresh this afternoon. Rain gradually easing

The Following Statement is provided especially for the Mariners.

Destructive Storm Force Winds within 40 NM of the center. Very High Seas. Damaging Gale Force Winds within 80 NM of the center in the southeast semi circle and 70 NM of the center in the northwest semi circle. Very Rough to High Seas with damaging heavy swells.
I have updated my blog on Damen. Later
Thanks, Pat. Yeah, I'm acutely aware of its noble history. If we can't recover it a team should go up for repairs unless they're so numerous, replacement and improvement become the most cost-efficient protocol.
One dont spend 500 Million and risk 7 Lives for an aged ,irradiated..worn out Bird. If we did we would have recovered every Billion Dollar KH-11 Spysat we ever Launched for the DoD. And the Shuttles launched quite a few of them. Last was in 89. Cheaper to build a better scatterometer and Bus it on a Newer more efficent Platform. Thats thinking ahead.
See something unusual here? LOL!




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
306 PM HST WED DEC 5 2007

HIZ028-060915-
/O.UPG.PHFO.BZ.A.0001.071206T0400Z-071206T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.071206T0400Z-071206T1600Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMIT-
306 PM HST WED DEC 5 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA...

HIGH WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CREATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THE SUMMITS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SQUALLS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...
WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVERNIGHT.

TRAVEL TO THE SUMMITS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING.
Yeah, Pat, I mentioned that in my earlier post!

"disposable" concerns, i.e. - This day in age we tend to replace instead of repair, being cheaper!

But, appreciate the added input though!
Spaceflight was and is my First interest after Canes. Betsy 65, Apollo 11, 69. Was 5.5 for Betsy, 9.5 for Neil Buzz and Mike. Those left big impression on the Lil Patrap..LOL



Mercury 7
W O W, STL! Say aloha to S N O W in the Hawaiian Islands. That's too much! Nice post.
Not many tourist On The Mountaintops I hope. Breezy, chilly, nasty hair day.
Happens all the Time in Winter

Mauna Kea is a dormant volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, one of five volcanoes which together form the island of Hawai'i. Pu'u Wekiu, one of numerous cinder cones on the summit plateau, is the highest point in the state of Hawaii at 13,796 feet (4,205 m). Mauna Kea is the tallest mountain in the world when measured from base to summit, since its base is located on the seafloor about 19,000 feet (5,800 m) beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, bringing its total height to well over 33,000 ft (10,000 m). In the Hawaiian language, mauna kea means "white mountain", a reference to its summit being regularly snow-capped during the Northern Hemisphere winter

No mystery, just Plain Ol Climatology. Gnight all.
A well define eye

An earlier image showing the full system. There are more recent passess but this shows the full system.

Latest vis image

Wow, pretty impressive image there.
I could be mistaken, but it looks like a banding-type eye is trying to form within the center.
It's getting stormy down there... Daman is putting up quite a show there with a developing eye and nice banding.
I just looked up the current advisory of the Fiji Meteorological Service (from 0154 UTC) where the Dvorak Number is 3.5 and the 10 min sustained winds 50 kts. The next advisory should be out at 0730 UTC, so in a minute or so. I'd say dvorak should be higher by now. What strikes me as odd in the advisory is that they don't give an estimation of the landfall in Fiji, i.e. when and where this will probably happen.

And it's getting stormy here as well... up to 27 m/s (52 kts) wind over Finland (forecast for Sunday):

And there is another storm with more than 40 m/s (~80 kts or more) bearing down on Central Europe. wow, the global weather is quite busy this week.

(newbie question about posting pictures: When resizing the image, should it be 640 px in width?)
Look at that cute little blowup near bermuda

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html
NOUS42 KWNO 060308
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1005 PM EST WED DEC 05 2007

THE 00Z NCEP PRODUCTION CYCLE IS ON TIME.

RAOBS UPDATE...

FWD/72249 - 10159
GRB/72645 - 10159
LKN/72582 - UNAVB FOR NAM..IN FOR GFS
YZS/71915 - DELETED HGTS AND SFC PRES FOR NAM...CORRECTED FOR
GFS
KPP/78970 - 10159

SOME GOOD NEWS. NESDIS REPORTS IT HAS REGAINED COMMAND OF
GOES-12.
NESDIS PLANS TO UTILIZE GOES-10 THROUGH TOMORROW.
NESDIS WILL SWITCH TO GOES-12 OPERATIONS ONCE IT IS
DETERMINED IMAGER/SOUNDER DATA IS WITHIN ACCEPTED LIMITS.
Daman has achieve hurricane status. Very impressive storm with excellent banding and outflow channels. The eye is beginning to appear through the CDO as it churns towards the Fiji Islands.



Good Morning and thank God they have regain Goes-12. It felt weird using Goes-10 images.
_____________________________________________

A small put potent hurricane

I bet ya was nervous Like a Cat in a room full of rocking Chairs 456,LOL.

Re-aquisition of the Spacecraft can be tricky after a Reposition. The Ground controllers are the ones to thank. They do a Bang up Job with Little or no recognition.
A shout out to dem Boys and Girls at JPL..or wherever the effort originated.
13. Patrap 5:43 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Image of the NW Storm

Wow! It was big! Thanks for posting that for me Pat.
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

"SINCE THIS
FETCH OF STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE ORIGINATED FROM WELL E OVER THE
OPEN ATLC...SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE SE PART BY SUN AND BY MON SEAS COULD BE 10-15 FT E OF
THE BAHAMAS..."

This will fill in to Florida-another weekend of wave activity. At this rate, I'll need shoulder operations sooner than expected.

Gm,all.
Thanks Storm,nice to enjoy a little quiet period for a few days.
morning...slow today..
yes very slow,yesterday was slow too,not much going on in the weather department(((yawn)))
HOWDY FOLKS!
Haven't been here in a while. Been too busy @ work. Hope all is well. gotta go for now....
well the lake effect started here on Monday and hasnt stopped yet. Some folks in the hills have well over a foot. The temps are brutal! 22F right now. Windchill takes it into the teens, I'm sure, (W-12mph) Brrrr!
I guess thats the worse part about lake effect snows is that it can last a long time,depending on the wind direction.I'm already tired of the cold,would like to see some 40's.
79. LakeShadow 3:10 PM GMT on December 06, 2007
well the lake effect started here on Monday and hasnt stopped yet. Some folks in the hills have well over a foot.

80. NEwxguy 3:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2007
I guess thats the worse part about lake effect snows is that it can last a long time,depending on the wind direction.

I miss the snow.
It's only snowed one time in 14 yrs. that I've been here in SE Texas. I'm from Central NY. I used to love to watch the lake effect snow machine work.....

lol,I always laugh when people move to the south,how much they miss the snow.
I'll never miss the snow. I miss the warmth!
Lake you sound like me now,once winter sets in,I start looking forward to summer,especially when winter sets in so early
Mount Washington- Observatory Home
Current Conditions: 11:00 AM, Thu.
Temperature -4.9°F
Wind 62.9 mph
Direction 296° (NW)
Gust
Wind Chill -40.7°F
Observation Deck WebCam
Today's scheduled Shuttle Launch has been scrubbed. Rescheduled
85. HIEXPRESS 4:07 PM GMT on December 06, 2007
Mount Washington- Observatory Home
Current Conditions: 11:00 AM, Thu.
Temperature -4.9°F
Wind 62.9 mph
Direction 296° (NW)
Gust
Wind Chill -40.7°F
Observation Deck WebCam

And the funny part is that they actually get volunteers to stay up there all winter.
When the TV weather guy says that it'll be warming up to a "balmy" 30 degrees...you know its cold!
...looking forward to April...
And the funny part is that they actually get volunteers to stay up there all winter.
hey, anything for a free vacation :)
89. LakeShadow 4:18 PM GMT on December 06, 2007
And the funny part is that they actually get volunteers to stay up there all winter.
hey, anything for a free vacation :)

define vacation????
Good morning all.

Can't wait to see what Dr. Gray has to say about the 2008 Hurricane Season tomorrow.

There is something that I would like to point out. Many people have been commenting on the CMC developing a strong TS and now what would be an impressive hurricane in five days. Even if this was a very reliable model, you can almost immediately throw it out since it strengthens this "storm" overland in Puerto Rico. So, my bottomline is, do not get overhyped on this model, although it would most definitely throw a huge curveball if it did develop which I give a 1% chance of happening since, if you have taken a Statisitics course, you would know there is no such thing as zero percent probability.

I will post Dr. Gray's predictions as well as my own for the 2008 Hurricane Season either tomorrow or Saturday on my website, depending upon my schedule.
vacation: Time away from children.
87,88 Lake & NEwx -
I made it up on Mt W a few years ago & it was a "Balmy 35" & clear - they say it is unusual to have perfect visibility. You probably know you can take the Cog Railway from the WEST
or the Auto Road (the way I went - Thrashed a rental car LOL)
The rime ice on the surfaces outside was "cool". I guess they need to stay up there to check the wind - since scatterometers don't work on land.
This is what I was referring to in my previous comment.

<>img src="Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Good afternoon to everyone! Everything had a lovely coat of ice this morning, which has now melted off. The real trouble they say is yet to come. Does anyone have good info on what is in store this weekend for the Kansas area?
96. JRRP
CMC still predicting a huracane near Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic
so is necessary to watch the area in the central atlantic
JRRP, see my comment above where I posted the image of the CMC model. It is comment #91.
Astonishing that this developed just yesterday and is already a strong Cat 4 according to this; Felix all over again (and another example of why global ACE, storm and hurricane days have been so low this year, a storm that intensified at a more normal rate would have a much higher ACE and lifetime)... it is also going to hit Fiji...

WWPS20 KNES 061543
A. 05P (DAMAN)
B. 06/1430Z
C. 15.3S
D. 176.6E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...06/0830Z INTENSITY REANALYSED AS T4.5/4.5. OW EYE EMBEDDED
WITHIN W WITH W SURROUNDING RING RESULTS IN DT OF 6.5. MET IS 4.5 FOR
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND PT IS 5.0. DT OF 6.5 NOTED OVER LAST 5
HOURS INCLUDING 1430Z RESULTS IN AVERAGE DT OVER LAST 6 HOURS FOR THIS
EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SYSTEM OF 6.3. THEREFORE CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
6-HOUR DEVELOPMENT AND REQUIRING FT BE WITHIN 1.0 OF MET ARE BROKEN.

RAW ADT VALUES OF 6.7-6.8 FROM 1130Z THROUGH 1430Z ALSO NOTEWORTHY. TURK





Special Weather Warning for Fiji #13
============================================
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA GROUP, NORTHERN VITI LEVU, WESTERN VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, NORTHERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, SOUTHERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, SOUTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP, VATULELE, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.


------
FOR THE YASAWA GROUP, NORTHERN VITI LEVU, WESTERN VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Winds increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds of 65-85 km/h with momentary gusts to 110 km/h from this morning. Winds strengthening further to destructive storm force and then to very destructive hurricane force with average speeds of 120 km/h with momentary gusts to 180 km/h later today. On this track the cyclone is expected to pass through the Vatuira passage or even over Vanua Levu.

FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, NORTHER HALF OF VITU LEVU, SOUTHERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Winds increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds of 65-85 km/h with momentary gusts to 110 km/h later this morning. Winds strenghthening further to destructive storm force with average wind speeds of 110 km/h and gusts up to 150 km/h from later in the day.

OVER THE REST OF VITI LEVU, SOUTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP, VATULELE, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Winds increasing to damaging gale force of 65-85 km/h with momentary gusts up to 110 km/h from later today.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI

Winds increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds of 65 km/h with momentary gusts up to 90 km/h from Saturday. Expect widespread rain becoming frequent with heavy falls and squally thunderstorms. Flooding of low lying areas, rivers and streams. Sea flooding of low lying coastal areas also expected.

FOR ROTUMA

North to northwest winds fresh and gusty. Periods of rain, heavy at times, and squally thunderstorms. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swells.


----------
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 30 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 100 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
considering the rapid intensification,I guess a cat 5 pretty soon.Thats pretty impressive.
afternoon folks
aftenoon bone,very quiet today
WOW!

I left at cat 1....now its a Cat 4 hurricane
damn slow today yet work is busy as hell. grrrr at least I dont miss much
Hi W456, Lake, Bone and all

This cyclone is indeed one of the fast ones. The last time I looked at the images (about 2 hours ago) it was officially still a cat 1 although I doubted it a bit because it looked better organised but I would have never expected to find a cat 4 now when I've come back from the center. wow... this season is weird and exciting all over the planet, not only the Atlantic season. I hope Daman will just pass between the two island so that the eyewall remains over water and the strongest winds with it.
Thats why the posts have so much time in between
Daman

This gives a good idea of how fast Daman developed today:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/1430 UTC 15.3S 176.6E T6.5/6.5 DAMAN
06/0830 UTC 15.4S 176.3E T4.0/4.0 DAMAN
06/0230 UTC 15.2S 175.8E T3.5/3.5 DAMAN

Strong tropical storm (55 kts) to strong Cat 4 (125-130 kts) in 12 hours...
That really is an explosion of energy in such a short time
Wow, I didnt know dvorak constraints would allow for such a spike in T numbers
This loop shows the rapid cooling of clouds tops associated with Daman's CDO
NRL now has the winds finally at 100kts...Probably stronger then that.

113. extreme236 2:13 PM CST on December 06, 2007
Wow, I didnt know dvorak constraints would allow for such a spike in T numbers



The constraints were broken:

WWPS20 KNES 061927 CCA
A. 05P (DAMAN)
B. 06/1430Z
C. 15.3S
D. 176.6E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR 24 HR TREND MET AND PT. 06/0830Z INTENSITY
REANALYSED AS T4.5/4.5. OW EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN W WITH W SURROUNDING
RING RESULTS IN DT OF 6.5. MET IS 5.0 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND
PT IS 5.5. DT OF 6.5 NOTED OVER LAST 5 HOURS INCLUDING 1430Z RESULTS IN
AVERAGE DT OVER LAST 6 HOURS FOR THIS EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SYSTEM OF 6.3.
THEREFORE CONSTRAINTS LIMITING 6-HOUR DEVELOPMENT AND REQUIRING FT BE
WITHIN 1.0 OF MET ARE BROKEN
. RAW ADT VALUES OF 6.7-6.8 FROM 1130Z
THROUGH 1430Z ALSO NOTEWORTHY. TURK
I looked up the rapid intensification of Felix. He developed from a strong tropical storm to cat. 4 in 24 h according to the WU data base.
The advisories in the NHC archive confirm this, the forecast advisory from Sept. 1 at 21 UTC has Felix as a strong TS and the one on Sept. 2 at 21 UTC has him already on cat. 4 status. Advisories on Felix. The first advisory mentioned develops him only into a low end cat. 3 and the previous one from 15 UTC only a high-end cat. 2. Rapid intensifiction remains a mystery which apparently can't be forecast yet.

*edit* Felix was indeed in September, how could I forget...
I agree Adrian...I would say more like 110-115 by the looks of it
I think Felix was in September
Any one have idea for reason behind jog to ENE then ESE during rapid intensification,
Here are some pictures of Felix for comparison:



Daman doesn't look quite as strong or symmetrical yet, but I would agree with SSD's estimate.
ADT numbers are rapidly rising. T2.2 constraint limit every 6 hours
Looks like they are conservative with their intensity estimations as usual. About 3 hours ago I doubted the cat. 1 status and now the strength according to the CIMSS graph in a post on the previous page was "only" about 100 kts and the dvorak number 5.5 although the report posted by MichaelSTL shows 6.5 and even 6.7 / 6.8 raw ADT.
I just looked on the CIMSS page where they still have Daman at cat. 1 Page about Daman.

Michael, are these pictures of Felix at max. strength? Well, Daman is not a cat. 5 yet, let's see what the morning brings. If I'm not totally mistaken it is early morning over there in Fiji.

Oh and thanks for telling me, W456, looks like I'm blind today or I just ignored the 09 when looking up the advisories. I'll edit it. Now that's a bit embarrassing... :-/
Seems to me that just in the moment of rapid intensification Daman remains nearly stationary for 2 or 3 frames before he moves on and changes direction. I'm referring to the loop posted by W456. I don't know why this would happen though.
The bad thing about this wobble is that it looks like Daman will probably hit the island on the right instead of moving through the strait between the two. Not good at all :-(
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN ADVISORY NUMBER SEVEN - ISSUED AT 2030 PM UTC
==========================================

Severe Tropical Cyclone DAMAN [CAT 3]
15.5S 176.9E - 85 knots 955 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Bulletin #7
===============================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman [955 HPA] located near 15.5S 176.9E as of 1800 PM UTC. Position good based on Radar, Hourly Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar with animation. Cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots possibly increasing to 95 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours and is moving southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=========================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM southeast semi-circle from the center
70 NM northwest semi-circle from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.2S 178.1E - 95 knots
24 HRS: 17.1S 179.1E - 90 knots

Additional Information
=================
The eye is clearly evident on the visible and ifrared imagery. Organization remains good. Outflow good to north and south but restricted elsewhere. Shear is increasing to the storms east. Based on MG Surround and OW Eye Temp, Yeilding a DT 5.0, PT and MET agree, thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS.

System lies to east of an approaching short-wave upper trough. Cyclone is steered southeast by approaching upper trough aided by an upper level anticyclone to the east. Global models generally agree on this track projection with further intensification.





taistelutipu Thanks for reply was wondering if torque from rapid spinup had something to do with it
Oh, what happened to the WU page on Daman? Looks like the closeness to the international date line causes some problems. track going around the world ;-)
wow that is a poor map track
Faster than aspeeding bullet it super storm
RSMC Nadi website appears to be very busy...

Hmm, could be, ChiefL. I'm just trying to imagine an everyday example of increasing rotation. Hmm, oh, what about lets say an iceskater when doing a pirouette. I once practised figure skating in my youth and when learning how to do a pirouette on one foot I had problems with staying on one spot as you are supposed to do. In the beginning I could not spin fast enough so I wobbled around but once I got the necessary speed it was easier to stay on one spot but beware if I changed position on the blade just a tad I was thrown out of the rotating movement.
I guess in a storm like that the sudden increase in centrifugal force would be strong enough to cause some change in movement.
Yes, the computer model page is even funnier... NOGAPS predicts the same super fast bullet storm whereas GFS stays conservative with a normal southerly track eventually turning SW.
Since when do we have track charts showing the whole planet? If I recall right the tracking map showed only the bassin where the storm is located just about an hour ago.
Well 85 knots on the 10-min wind speed is actually quite strong. Some category fives in the wpac have 10-min wind speeds of 95-100 knots and most cat 4's only have 10-min winds of 90-95 knots so thats pretty powerful
Here is a chart to convert 10 minute readings to 1 minute readings:

T-num_____JMA__________US__________SS_Cat
__________(10_min)_____(1_min)

Tropical Depression
1.0______25_kt___________25_kt
1.5______30_kt___________30_kt
2.0______30_kt___________35_kt__________
Tropical Storm
2.5______35_kt___________40_kt__________
3.0______45_kt___________50_kt__________
Severe Tropical Storm
3.5______55_kt___________55_kt__________
Typhoon
4.0______65_kt___________65_kt__________1
4.5______70_kt___________75_kt__________1-2
5.0______80_kt__________ 90_kt__________2-3
5.5______90_kt__________100_kt__________3
6.0______95_kt__________115_kt__________4
6.5_____100_kt__________130_kt__________4
Super Typhoon
7.0_____110_kt__________140_kt__________5
7.5_____115_kt__________155_kt__________5
8.0_____120_kt__________170_kt__________5


The highest 10 minute wind that I have ever seen was for Monica, 130 kts.
Howdy people, my first time posting in here for like 3 months , lol.

Daman is certainly a fantastic cyclone.
I'm sure I have seen a cyclone that has 10 minute winds of 150 knots. I could be wrong, i need to check back.
Nadi track map has it reaching Australian Scale Category Four before it hits the eastern section of Fiji Islands.
T-num_____JMA__________US__________SS_Cat_________Australian_Scale
__________(10_min)_____(1_min)

5.5______90_kt__________100_kt__________3_______Cat_4
6.0______95_kt__________115_kt__________4
6.5_____100_kt__________130_kt__________4
Super Typhoon
7.0_____110_kt__________140_kt__________5_______Cat_5
7.5_____115_kt__________155_kt__________5
8.0_____120_kt__________170_kt__________5

Australian Scale added to chart
RSMC Nadi

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN [CAT 4]
15.5S 177.4E - 95 knots 940 hPa
Impressive storm.
Yet another rapidly developing storm this year...

Amazing...

I hope (really do) that all the people in its path are sufficiently prepared for the destruction that will no doubt take place.
MODIS image of Cyclone Daman
Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC07 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:41:30 S Lon : 178:13:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.6mb/115.0kt



6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.5 4.8 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 2.6mb

Center Temp : -66.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/12hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

Daman cat 5
What Keeper??
Amazing image of Daman with 250M resolution
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
An amazing cyclone....pure power.
146. Stormchaser2007 8:09 PM CST on December 06, 2007
Current Intensity Analysis


Worthless...



Not sure how it makes such a gross positioning error... the estimated center (blue square) is not even in the eye...
wow..they're way off...In the thumbnail i put above, if you zoom in on the eye, you can see it is almost perfecly clear
Evening everybody.

Hblast, thanks for that shot. That is a picture of a truly classic-looking eye.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN [CAT 4]
15.6S 177.8E - 105 knots 925 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Bulletin #8
===============================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman [925 HPA] located near 15.6S 177.8E as of 0000 AM UTC. Position good based on Radar, Hourly Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar with animation. Cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots possibly increasing to 115 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours and is moving east at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=========================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM southeast semi-circle from the center
70 NM northwest semi-circle from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.9S 178.9E - 115 knots
24 HRS: 16.9S 179.9E - 95 knots

Additional Information
=================
The eye is slightly obscured as the system is losing a bit of its vertical structure. Sea Surface Temperatures around the system is 28-30C. Cloud Organization continues to be maintained over the last six hours. Shear is increasing to the east of the system. Dvorak based on MG Surround and OW Eye Temp, Yielding a DT 6.0, PT and MET agree, Thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS.
System lies to the east of an approaching short wave upper trough. Cyclone is steered southeast due to the upper anticyclone to the northeast of the system. Global models generally agree on this track projection with further intensifications.
Regional Specialized Meteological Center Nadi is predicting a CATEGORY FIVE STORM (Based on the Australian Scale) LANDFALL for the Eastern region of Fiji.

LINK to Tropical Cyclone Graphic Output

if the page loads.. the site is very busy during this particularly dangerous situation
Special Weather Warning for Rotuma and Fiji #16
===========================================

A Hurricane Warning remains in force for Vanua Levu, Takeuni, Northern Lau Groups, Lomaiviti Group, Northern Viti Levu, and nearby smaller islands.

A Storm Warning is in force for the Yasawa Group, Central parts of Viti Levu, Central Lau Group, and nearby smaller islands.

A Gale Warning is in force for the rest of Fiji.



FOR THE VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, NORTHERN LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP, NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Winds increasing to damaging gale force this afternoon strengthening further to destructive storm force and then to very destructive hurricane force winds with average speeds upto 195 km/h with momentary gusts to 275 km/h later tonight.

FOR THE YASAWA GROUP TODAY, AND CENTRAL PARTS OF VITI LEVU, CENTRAL LAU GROUP, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Winds increasing to damaging gale force tonight and tomorrow. Winds strengthening further to destructive storm force with average speeds of 120 km/h with momentary gusts up to 170 km/h overnight

OVER THE REST OF FIJI

Winds increasing to damaging gale force of 65-85 km/h with momentary gusts up to 110 km/h for tomorrow morning. Expect widespread heavy rains and squally thunderstorms. Flash Flooding of low lying areas. river and streams. Sea flooding of low lying coastal areas, especially at the time of high tide.

FOR ROTUMA

North to northwest winds fresh and gusty. Period of rain, heavy at times, and squally thunderstorms. Moderate t o heavy swells

The following information is provided especially for the mariners

EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 35 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 90 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
157. H2PV


RGB image helps indicate local time of day -- it appears to be early morning hours in Fiji.
actually its afternoon right now.. the special weather warning was released at 1:30 pm FJT

UTC plus 12 hours = Fiji Time
159. H2PV
RGB picture is deceptive. According to current time graphic, it's near sunset in Fiji...


http://www.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Palau/s/9/java

Fiji Location:
ya. Suva, Fiji states it's almost 5:00 pm
According to weatherman, Rajendra Prasad the ‘stubborn’ hurricane is moving very slowly over the northern parts of Vanua Levu and could possible turn into a storm serge if it hits land, which “could easily result in high rising waves and flooding all over Vanua Levu”.

“The eye of the hurricane is close to Vanua Levu and as predicted the hurricane is heading straight for Udu point and Cikobia Island off the coast of Vanua Levu.

“It’s moving at a very slow pace and this is very stubborn hurricane as it got everybody including me wrong about the path it has taken.”

Prasad said the hurricane is expected to pass over Vanua Levu early tomorrow morning and head towards Tonga.

“But we should not make any mistake thinking that the hurricane will pass us because a wrath of a hurricane is never predictable and could develop in some sort of massive flooding and storm surge so it is wise to take precaution,” he added.


This was posted with a time stamp of 12/7/07 5:37 pm

Fiji time:


Suva
Daman continues to intensify
1806 FJT
Friday, December 07, 2007

Update: 6.06pm TROPICAL Cyclone Daman (Category 4) continues to intensify but it may have passed its peak development.

At 4pm today, Daman had its centre located about 150 km northwest of Labasa and 110 km west-northwest of Kia Island.

Director of Meteorology, Rajendra Prasad said the cyclone has maintained its intensity and size but shown a slight filling of the eye in the last 3 hours possibly indicating it has pased its peak development.

And Mr Prasad said Daman had slowed down in pace but traveling at about 10 km per hour.

The eye of the cyclone was expected to be over Kia Island within the next 12 hours.

9 min past 6 pm...
Any chance the eye filling in is just the cyclone going through an eyewall replacement cycle, and still intensifying?

What's the water temp and wind shear there?
The last advisory had the SST around 82-86F with increasing shear to its east.
Vanua Levu (pronounced [βanua leβu]), formerly known as Sandalwood Island, is the second largest island of Fiji. Located 64 kilometres to the north of the larger Viti Levu, the island has an area of 5,587.1 km² and a population of some 130,000.

The island is divided horizontally by a rugged mountain range, which forms much of the boundary between the Provinces of Cakaudrove and Macuata. The highest peaks are Mount Batini, also known as Nasorolevu, with an altitude of 1111 meters, and, 16 kilometers further north-east, Dikeva, also known as Mount Thurston, with an altitude of 1030 meters. Vanua Levu's main mountain ranges lie near the windward, southern coasts, making them much wetter. Northern Vanua Levu, by contrast, is dry eight months of the year, enabling sugar cane, the island's major crop, to thrive there.

Vanua Levu has a number of rivers, including the Labasa, the Wailevu, and the Qawa. These three form a delta on which the town of Labasa stands. None of the island's rivers are navigable by large vessels.

Labasa residents braced themselves for flooding as torrential rain lashed the Northen Division yesterday.
Farmers in low-lying areas secured their livestock yesterday as adverse weather conditions prevailed.
Ramesh Fishman, who lives near the Labasa River, began fixing hurricane shutters to house and secured his property.
Fishman, 38, was fully aware of the wrath of cyclones following flooding to the area in 2003 when Cyclone Ami ravaged the Northern Division.
Mr Fishman said he lost his home and received no assistance from government while some families received $300, which was still not enough to rebuild their lives.
He said there were only two houses left standing when floodwaters receded.
Mr Fishman, who has four children, said if the Labasa River breaks its banks, they would have to evacuate to the Labasa Hospital until it was safe to return home.
He appealed to the Interim Government to dredge the Labasa River.
Assistant Divisional Police Commander Northern Anand Narayan said they are aware of the flood warning and appealed to the general public to exercise caution. He also reminded parents to keep their children away from playing in flooded field and drains.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0630z 07Dec)
=========================================
An area of convection persistent near 9.4S 87.3E or 890 NM east of Diego Garcia. Animated Multispectral Imagert and SSMIS Microwave Image indicates a persistent area of deep convection banding wrapping into a well defined low level circulation center. The convective banding is displaced to the southwest by moderate vertical winds shear from the northeast. Good outflow along with favorable ocean heat content has fueled the deep convection of the disturbance.

The moderate vertical wind shear is the main limiting factor of any further development. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 mb. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Fri Dec 7, 2007 1:50am EST

SUVA, Dec 7 (Reuters) - A tropical cyclone bearing down on the South Pacific island nation of Fiji has intensified into a category four storm, the second most powerful cyclone, with destructive winds up to 200 kph (125 mph).

Cyclone Daman is expected to hit the nation's second largest island Vanua Levu early on Saturday, officials said, as people began moving to higher ground and securing their homes and animals.

Fiji's Director of Meteorology Rajendra Prasad told local media that Daman had increased in intensity and was "just one category short of being a super hurricane".

"It's moving at a very slow pace and this is a very stubborn hurricane," Prasad said.

Vanua Levu, with a population of about 360,000 people, is in the north of the Fiji island chain and has only limited tourism development, unlike the country's main island Viti Levu and its internationally renowned island resorts off its west coast.

Fiji media broadcast warnings to residents on Friday to prepare for destructive winds, widespread flooding of rivers and high seas along low-lying coastal areas.

"A warning to everyone listening, Hurricane Daman is changing its direction quiet rapidly and is intensifying as it heads towards Vanua Levu. Take precautions now," said one broadcast. "Mariners do not go out to sea and people are advised to prepare for the worst."

Airlines operating in Fiji have cancelled some international and domestic flights due to the cyclone, reported local media.

"There are many people in town today, mostly buying household items and canned food in preparation for the coming hurricane," said Sanjeet Maharaj in Rkiraki, on Viti Levu's north coast.

The Australian government issued a travel advisory telling its citizens holidaying in Fiji to identify cyclone shelters and contact families at home.

"In some areas, adequate shelter from a severe cyclone may not be available to all who may choose to stay. You should review and follow hotel or cruise ship evacuation plans," said the advisory by the foreign affairs department.

"You should carry your travel documents at all times or secure them in a safe, waterproof location. We also suggest that you contact friends and family in Australia with updates about your welfare and whereabouts."

Strong winds from Cyclone Daman swept a passenger ship onto a reef near the outer Rotuma island in Fiji's northwest on Wednesday night, local media reported.

"It is now stuck on the reef and we're still trying to find ways to pull the ship off the reef," said Josefa Tuamoto from Blue Lagoon Cruises Limited. The 12 crew were safe and still on the vessel, which had not suffered any major damage.
HURRICANE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN

Severe Tropical Cyclone DAMAN [CAT 4]
15.5S 178.7E - 100 knots 925 hPa

moving eastward at 8 knots, eventually turning southeast

Hurricane Force Winds
====
30 miles from the center

Storm Force Winds
=====
50 miles from the center

Gale Force Winds
====
90 miles from the center


This warning replaces Hurricane Warning number 10

Tropical Disturbance Advisory will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC
Cyclone Daman Heads Toward Northern Fiji
By PITA LIGAIULA – 44 minutes ago

NADI, Fiji (AP) — A powerful tropical cyclone packing wind gusts up to 155 mph headed Friday toward northern Fiji, where officials feared that it would blow away the thatched homes of islanders overnight.

Cyclone Daman was rated a Category 4 cyclone, and it was expected to cause major flooding and serious damage to islanders' homes in the South Pacific nation after smashing ashore later Friday, senior forecaster Matt Boterhoven said.

People in the Lau, Lomaiviti and Vanua Levu island groups — where many villagers live in flimsy houses made of thatch and palm fronds — were advised to move from coastal areas to cyclone shelters and other secure buildings, Fiji Disaster Management Office director Joeli Rokovabe said.

"It's most likely going to be one of the severest cyclones to hit the country in recent times," Rokovabe told The Associated Press.

About 90,000 people reside in the three island groups where the storm was expected to pass, many of them living on subsistence-level fishing and farming.

"Wind gusts of up to 250 kilometers (155 miles) an hour are going to take out a lot of those lean-to houses and have pretty serious affects," Boterhoven said.

A number of tourist resorts in the area were at risk, he added.

"We hold very serious concerns for the safety of the people there," Boterhoven said, with the cyclone forecast to dump up to 10 inches of rain.

Fiji has been slammed by 13 tropical cyclones in the past decade — the worst in 2003 when the lower-intensity Cyclone Ami hammered the Labasa region of Vanua Levu and killed 17 people.

The country's worst death toll in recent decades was 70 killed when the moderately strongCyclone Lottie sank two ships off western Fiji in 1973.

Tropical storms are common in the South Pacific from November to April
A New Zealander, on a small island, waiting for a fierce tropical cyclone to hit in a couple of hours has describe an incredible calm before the storm.
Listen to audio ... Fiji braces for cyclone


Cyclone Daman is due to hit northern Vanua Levu island tonight and on over Taveuni and the islands of the Lau Group.

In the last two hours Cyclone Daman has changed course away from the tourist heavy areas of western Viti Levu.

Neighbouring Tonga has been put on alert.

"It has undergone some very erratic behaviour and its path is changing all the time," Fiji Meteorology Service head Rajendra Prasad told Fairfax Media a short time ago.

It was heading for the Vanua Levu town of Labasa which on January 14, 2003, was devastated by Cyclone Ami, killing nine people.

Daman is a now a category four hurricane on a five point scale and is stronger than Ami.

Prasad said while Vanua Levu is most likely to face the full force, he warned all of Fiji to be careful.

"This storm has been so unpredictable so far, if it could take a southward dive the rest of Fiji will get hit too."

Auckland engineer Murray Thomson is working on a resort on Laucala Island, just east of Taveuni and is in the bulls-eye.

He told Fairfax Media that they had suffered strong winds and heavy rains for the last couple of days but in the last couple of hours an "absolute calmness" has settled over the island.

Looking north, toward Daman, the sky was very black.

"But one thing you do note is that the water has taken on this beautiful pristine blue which is unusual with this kind of cloud cover," Thomson said.

People were moving around quickly getting ready with material tied down, containers re-packed and boats put out to sea.

There was no sense of panic.

"It seems to be calm with the people, they know what to do.... Its basically, the scenario, is the calm before the storm."

Dr Prasad said two days ago Daman was not taken seriously by international forecasting agencies which each day reach a consensus agreement on what will happen.

"At the beginning all these models were not giving it any interest, thinking it was a weak feeble thing."

But last night it underwent "explosive development" and grew in power and changed track several times.

In the latest formal warning the Fiji weather office says that at 11 am Daman was 235 kilometres west-northwest of Labasa and moving at 20 kilometres per hour.

They warn it may change course in the afternoon and are expecting it to cross Vanua Levu and out over Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group.

On the scale Daman "is a very severe cyclone and increasingly very dangerous".

Storm surges of three to five metres above normal are expected along the coast and flooding in low lying areas.

The weather office has called for evacuations.

"Resident and authorities in Tonga should closely watch this system as it works its way through the Lau Group."

A short time ago Air Pacific cancelled flights out of Nadi. In a statement they said flights to Auckland, Brisbane and Sydney were halted until operating conditions could be confirmed.

Sala Toganivalu of the Fiji Tourist Bureau said it was very calm in Nadi right now, with no strong winds and no rain.

"The calm before the storm I would think," he said.

State owned Fiji Broadcasting is reporting that Labasa was at a standstill with people racing to prepare for the storm.

Fiji's National Centre for Disaster Management says its offices nationwide are on full alert.

Fiji Meteorological Department runs out of cash at critical timeFriday, December 07, 2007

AS the Nadi weather office monitors the movement of Hurricane Daman Director Rajendra Prasad says his department has run out of cash.

Prasad says this means the department does not have any money for fuel. Prasad says the department has not been able to pay its electricity bill and that the FEA called him today to say power to the Met Service would be disconnected.

He says the Nausori radar has gone down and he needs money to send his staff from Nadi in their official vehicle to fix the problem but there is no money for fuel.

“Yes certainly our financial constraints have been there and with this automation of our budget process as soon as you run out of allocation we can’t even purchase fuel no. Our power bills basically the allocation was busted so it will not accept in the system in the bar system with manual processing."

" We could actually issue the LPO than reach to the fund later but in this case the system is not accepting so today I think FEA wanted to come and disconnect the power in the centre over here.”

Prasad says there will be consequences but his office cannot do much.

“But what can we do if you are at fault not paying up your bills, you don’t have the funds and now our Nausori radar is down. I have been trying to send a technician down but somehow the person did not get there in time so the radar has gone down and which means we have a blackout in terms of reaching the Nausori radar which covers Vanua Levu, Lau group, etc and given the system is expected to curve towards southeast the problem now is we trying to look around pay fuel and I have used my pocket fuels in the past but how long can you go?”

Fiji Broadcasting Corporation Limited...listen live!
Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:06pm on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE KIA, CIKOBIA,
NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
LAU GROUP.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF VANUA
LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LAU GROUP.
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 925HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 7 EAST OR ABOUT 130 KILOMETRES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 7PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE
CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 180 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 260 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 15 KM/HR BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

FOR KIA, CIKOBIA, NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY
ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LAU GROUP , WINDS INCREASING TO VERY
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO 180 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 260 KM/HR OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY
ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM
FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO 110 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 160
KM/HR TOMORROW.

OVER THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM LATER
TOMORROW.

EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FLASH FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS,
RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN ADVISORY NUMBER NINE - ISSUED AT 8:30AM UTC
====================================

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN [925 hPa] located near 15.5S 178.7E as of 0600 AM UTC. Position Good based on radar, Hourly MTSAT Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation. Cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots and is moving east at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=====
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
====
65 NM from the center

Additional Information
=======================
Eye now embedded and not clearly discernible. Shear over the system increased significantly past 6 hours. SST 28-30C. Organization steady. Convective bands though beginning to lose organization. Dvorak Based on Embedded Center Pattern with B Surround and 0.5 Banding, Yielding a DT 5.5, PT=5, Met=5 Thus T5.5/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS.

Cyclone is steered east by a mid level ridge to the north. Global models generally agree on an easterly then southeast track with little intensification.
The Australian Scale is based on the maximum speed of wind gusts rather than sustained winds.
Category 5 means gusts equal to or greater than 280kilometres per hour / 174miles per hour
and is more weakly associated with sustained winds equal to or greater than 200kph/124mph

"SevereTropicalCyclone Daman...(Category4)...is estimated to have average winds up to 180kph with momentary gusts up to 260kph" from RSMC-Nadi (Fiji Meteorological Service)
means sustained winds of ~112mph with gusts up to ~162mph
which would be a weak Cat.3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

"Max sustained winds - 105knots , gusts - 130knots" for Daman from the JointTyphoonWarningCenter
means sustained winds of ~121mph/~194kph with gusts up to ~150mph/~241kph
which would be a moderate Cat.3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
My brother in law is on the main island and has a flight scheduled out of there for England on Monday. My sister is asking if he'll be delayed. Anybody have an idea?
Morning all, good to see ya JFla, and Chick ☺

Just made a trip through Florida and have some pics posted in my blog for those who are interested.

JFla, what kind of interesting for the SE?
Chicklit "...main island...flight scheduled...on Monday. ...asking if...delayed."

NadiInternationalAirport is 59feet/18metres above sealevel and Fiji is regularly hit by TropicalCyclones, so I'd suspect structures have been engineered to resume normal flight operations very quickly after the equivalent of a moderate Cat.3 hurricane has passed.
In fact, Daman appears to be bypassing the main island Suva entirely...

...and the airport should remain unaffected.
engineers were able to swap in a spare battery cell on November 28

Im curious how this was done? Its a satellite, I would they they would either have to go have NASA do something with it, or launch a new satellite. Unless there is something they did electronically by sending commands from a ground station, which the article doesn't make it sound like.. Im really curious what they went through to make this all happen.
Good morning,

Isnt it amazing how below the equator the spin is the opposite. It kind of gives you a headache to look at when your so use to looking at Northern hemisphere storms. Very intense storm.
Issued 25 Mins ago

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:48am on Saturday the 8th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, NORTH-EASTERN PARTS
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR KIA, THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF
VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAU
GROUP.
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 935HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 180 DECIMAL 0 EAST OR ABOUT 110 KILOMETRES
NORTHEAST OF LABASA AT 1.40AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE
IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 160 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS UP TO 240 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR CIKOBIA, NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY ISLANDS,
WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO
160 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 240 KM/HR.

FOR KIA, THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY
ISLANDS, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO 110 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 160 KM/HR TOMORROW.

OVER THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW.

EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FLASH FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS,
RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.


The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF
CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO 60 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5AM
TODAY.
oops!! that would be 1 Hour and 25 Mins ago
Im really curious what they went through to make this all happen.

Welcome aboard 711!

My guess would be that it was all done electronically. That is one of the beauties of space exploration. The contingency plans are pretty well thought out during development of things like the QS. Again, all just my guess.
morning...slow again...
Damian is big...Nice evil name for an evil storm... :O
pardon,, Daman...I miss read..I thought he might be named after the evil kid in OMEN..
191. IKE
FORT COLLINS, Colorado (AP) -- Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.

Yawn.
This is the most recent forcast map from Figi. Sounds like it could be another big storm.

LakeShadow, I tried you snow formula for Harrisburg, PA and will see how it works. I will keep you posted.

Figi
cool, lawntonliookers, let me know how you do.
:o)
snowcounting is a fun way to deal with the snow...
yea IKE...I've already started shuttering the windows and gassing up the cars....
stormj....things are lightening up...let's get together soon....Still have my #?
GM all.
Yep, I think so press, and good to see you around. Shoot me a WU mail though just in case.

Morning Ike, good to see you too.
Morning NE and SW, hope y'all are well.
Thanks Storm,good analysis as always.
Good afternoon everyone,

Daman seems to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, the structure as become quite asymetrical over the past hours. In the first frames of the water vapor loop you can still see the former well-organized storm with a clear eye which collapses in the next frames. At the end of the loop I think I see a new eye forming. I'll be out for some hours now, let's see how Daman looks like then.
I'm quite happy that the cyclone did not take the forecast track over the island but seems to miss it. This one is really unpredictable. Yesterday the forecast still called for a passage between the two bigger islands, then it had the storm going over the island and now it circles it to the east.
morning SJ, doing well up here,but cold.
Current Severe Weather


Public Information Statement
Statement as of 7:00 am EST on December 7, 2007


The governors of Virginia and North Carolina have declared the week
of December 2nd to 8th... 2007 winter preparedness week. The National
Weather Service offices serving Virginia and North Carolina... in
cooperation with their respective departments of emergency
management... will send public information statements each day
through Saturday at approximately 7 am. These statements will focus
on different aspects of winter weather... and preparedness actions
the public should take for the upcoming winter season.

Today's topic: heavy snow.

For most of the last 10 Winters... temperatures have been normal to
above normal. What will this winter bring? The National Weather
Service outlook for this winter is calling for below normal
temperatures and near normal precipitation across the commonwealth.
Weak El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected
to play a role in this winter's weather... by producing a stronger
than normal southern jet stream called the subtropical jet. Storm
systems intensifying rapidly along the eastern Seaboard during the
colder months of the year are usually responsible for producing most
of the heavy snows in our area.

These systems... called nor'easters... can also produce strong winds
which may result in blizzard conditions and huge snow drifts. Heavy
snow tends to occur 100 to 150 miles to the northwest of the track
of the surface low. Snow amounts well in excess of 30 inches have
occurred with nor'easters in our area. In addition... strong winds
and very cold temperatures can result in blizzard or near blizzard
conditions... dangerous wind chill values... and have resulted in snow
drifts up to 12 feet high.

The exact track the surface low pressure takes and how much cold air
is in place ahead of the system... determines if and where heavy snow
will occur. Given that cold air is in place... a surface low that
travels a hundred miles or so off the coast can produce some snow in
the central portion of Virginia and North Carolina... with the
potential for heavy snow confined to the eastern portions of the
area. If the surface low travels along the coast or slightly
inland... heavy snow is most likely in the northwestern one third of
Virginia.

If the amount of cold air in place is marginal for snow... it is
possible that heavy wet snow could occur in the higher elevations
with just a cold rain in the lower elevations. Heavy snow is capable
of bringing down tree limbs and power lines which may result in
power outages. In rare instances... heavy snow may result in the
collapse of roofs of buildings and homes. In addition... heavy snow
may result in snow covered or ice covered roads. This typically
leads to vehicle accidents and potentially major traffic jams. If
there is enough heavy snow and... or wind... some roads may be closed
and other roads may only be successfully traversed by 4 wheel drive
vehicles.

The following is a summary of historic snowstorms in virginia:

February 14-18 2003. 7 to 36 inches of snow across central and
northern Virginia (highest far north)... significant ice southern
Virginia.

January 24-25 2000. 6 to 19 inches of snow across much of central
and eastern Virginia.

January 6-7 1996. 12 to 30 inches of snow in much of
western... central... and northern Virginia. A few locations in the
mountains received over 3 feet of snow. Twenty four hour snowfall
records were established at Roanoke and Lynchburg. In
Virginia... there was one fatality directly attributed to the storm.
In the mountains... strong winds on January 8th created snow drifts
up to 10 feet high.

March 12-15 1993. 20 to 30 inches of snow with some amounts over 3
feet in the mountains. In the foothills... 10 to 18 inches of snow
fell. In Virginia... there was one fatality directly attributed to
the storm. In the mountains... strong winds up to 50 mph whipped
drifts up to 12 feet high and created near blizzard conditions.

February 10-12 1983. 10 to 20 inches of snow in a large portion of
Virginia with up to 30 inches of snow in northern portions of the
state. The storm established 24 hour snowfall records at
Roanoke... Lynchburg... and Richmond.

March 5-8 1962. 10 to 24 inches of snow in many interior portions of
Virginia.

Being prepared means making good decisions based on information
contained in outlooks... watches... warnings... advisories... other
statements and forecasts from the National Weather Service. The key
is to know what to do in advance. If a winter storm like what
occurred in 1993 or 1996 was predicted to hit Virginia in two
days... what would you do between now and when the storm arrives to
get ready? You should make sure you have enough food... water and
medication for several days. You also need to be prepared for the
loss of power and... or heat.

Up to date weather information is available at:

Www.Weather.Gov/Blacksburg

The National Weather Service winter weather awareness home Page is
found here:




" " " " " " " " " " " " "" " " "

Much of N.C schools systems are under a 2 hour delay/closed where I live.Not one weather station predicted ice/snow.Though weatherunderground said a 20% of freezing rain above 3000f.t. We had ice down around 1000f.t and below.

When the met came on air this morning he said the "Alberta Clipper diped more south than expected".None of the roads were treated this morning with salt.

We had like 2 clippers this week. Some schools have been closed/delayed 2 or three times.
SW,any long range signs of this winter pattern breaking down??
204. NorthxCakalaky 4:36 PM GMT on December 07, 2007

Weak El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected
to play a role in this winter's weather...


HUH?
206. tornadofan 4:54 PM GMT on December 07, 2007
204. NorthxCakalaky 4:36 PM GMT on December 07, 2007

Weak El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected
to play a role in this winter's weather...

Did I miss something the past couple of weeks?
We had like 2 clippers this week. Some schools have been closed/delayed 2 or three times.

no offense, but better you than me :o)
And people move south to escape the cold... it will track you down, it will!

Afternoon, NE, Storm...everyone else..
merked out there for a while, children's breakdowns....
206. tornadofan 4:54 PM GMT on December 07, 2007

Be careful of the two very popular weather terms El Nino and La Nina. They are as much TV hype terms as anything.
afternoon lake,did the LES stop?
didnt really get kicked up last night around here...the wind shear is supposed to keep it light. not much right now, but still some showing up on the radar. very localized.
bone's about to get his dose pretty soon...
I think hes in NW NJ...



Link
thats good,doesn't look like there will be much mechanism for getting it started in the near future,but the pattern is definitely going to be unsettled at least until the middle of next week.
212. LakeShadow 6:13 PM GMT on December 07, 2007
bone's about to get his dose pretty soon...
I think hes in NW NJ...

Yeh,most of the activity has been down toward his area.
Im expecting a little light snow before the afternoon is over,but shouldn't amount to much
Yeah things are pretty quiet on the radar now...take it when I can get it. Its supposed to warm up a little. They keep changing the day that the warm-up is coming. was Fri then Sat, then Sun, so I see it posted for Tues... ugh. And thats only to 40 deg.
April cant come soon enough!
Hope we get a little break soon,hate this continous cold weather.My prediction is its going to stay wintery until the middle of January.
Merry Christmas to everyone. I hope the new year treats you great. I've been tied up a lot with my family and extended family and have stuck to lurking in the pantry. (Some of us are old enough to remember the La Choy cooked in dragon fire commercials.) I got my taste of Global Warming last night and more is expected here in SE Ga. It's probably warm over at St. Simon's Island, tho.lol I hope everyone is having a blessed day. Back to lurking.
Patrap, and StormW, Mail call.