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QuikSCAT satellite nearing failure; Congress poised to slash NOAA funding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2009

The QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999, provides crucial measurements of surface wind speed and direction over Earth's oceans twice per day. Forecasters world-wide have come to rely on data from QuikSCAT to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. Just one example of QuikSCAT's value (H. Kite-Powell, 2008) is that wind data from QuikSCAT and the resulting improvements to warning and forecast services save the container and bulk shipping industry $135 million annually by reducing their exposure to hurricane force wind conditions in non-tropical storms by 44% over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Originally expected to last just 2 - 3 years, QuikSCAT is now ten years old, and will be lucky to survive into 2010. NASA and NOAA notified Congress in September that there is a significant chance QuikSCAT will fail in the next few months. According to scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "the mechanism that maintains the constant 18 rpm rotation rate of the antenna that scans Earth's surface has grown steadily worse over the past six months. Engineering telemetry shows that the torque loss due to friction in the bearing system has been increasing at an alarming rate in recent weeks and that if the trend continues, the rotation speed will begin to slow significantly within the next few weeks or months. When that happens, scatterometer calibration and spatial sampling will be affected. Eventually the wind vector data products from QuikSCAT will no longer be reliable for operational forecasting. The timing is not predictable, but forecasters should anticipate loss of the QuikSCAT near-real-time data in the near future."


Figure 1. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.

As I argued in a post earlier this year, "The case for a new QuikSCAT satellite", replacing QuikSCAT should be a high priority for Congress. The earliest a replacement satellite could be launched is 2015--if immediate action is taken to procure funding. Losing QuikSCAT is going to make it much more difficult to assess the strength and position of tropical storms over the open Atlantic, where the Hurricane Hunters cannot reach.

Senate vote Tuesday may significantly cut NOAA funding
I urge all of you who value the services provided by the National Weather Service and their parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to contact your two Senators and ask them to vote against the Senator Hutchison (R-TX) Amendment #2666 to the Commerce State Justice Appropriations Act for 2010 H.R. 2847. This amendment will be voted on this Tuesday, October 13, by the Senate, and would cut the NOAA budget by $172 million. The funds would be diverted to the State Criminal Alien Assistance Program, to increase its budget by 75%. While I'm sure the State Criminal Alien Assistance Program is a worthy program to support, Congress should find a different way to fund this program. NOAA's total budget is about $4 billion, and the National Weather Service Budget is a little less than $1 billion. The only place where NOAA has the flexibility to absorb the proposed cuts would be in the satellite program. With the QuickSCAT satellite likely to fail in the next few months, and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite also nearing its demise, the last thing we should be doing is cutting NOAA's budget in time when our capability to observe the weather from space is suffering from serious degradation.

Here's the language of the bill, and the proposed amendments:

SA 2666. Mrs. HUTCHISON (for herself, Mr. CORNYN, Mr. KYL, and Mr. MCCAIN) submitted an amendment intended to be proposed by her to the bill H.R. 2847, making appropriations for the Departments of Commerce and Justice, and Science, and Related Agencies for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2010, and for other purposes; which was ordered to lie on the table; as follows:

On page 170, between lines 19 and 20, insert the following:

SEC. 220. INCREASE IN STATE CRIMINAL ALIEN ASSISTANCE PROGRAM FUNDING.

(a) In General.--For an additional amount under the heading ``STATE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ASSISTANCE'' under the heading ``Office of Justice Programs'' under this title, there is appropriated, for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2010, $172,000,000 for the State Criminal Alien Assistance Program, as authorized by section 241(i)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1231(i)(5)).

(b) Offset.--The total amount appropriated under the heading ``OPERATIONS, RESEARCH, AND FACILITIES'' under the heading ``National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration'' under title I is reduced by $172,000,000.

The National Weather Service Employees Organization has put out a press release with more details.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave (92L) that is moving along the northern coast of South America has only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, thanks to interaction with land. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Please, Contact your Senators to oppose the proposed NOAA funding cut, and to argue for funding for a new QuikSCAT satellite.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
From the afternoon Tampa,FL. discussion....

"LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT
THAT A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MUCH COOLER BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO OUR REGION.


FIRST...UNSEASONABLY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK BACK DOOR
TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY... BUT MAINLY WE WILL JUST SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN
EASTERLY WINDS. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG STEADILY
SOUTHEASTWARD...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR THIS TO BE A WET FRONT SO HAVE
RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT...ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NOW...BUT PROBABLY
NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

DRY AIR INVADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING. WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY. ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY BUT STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD. NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE FOR THE NATURE COAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO THE SOUTH."
Quoting portcharlotte:


Look for possible Tropical trouble to delay any cool down. The cool down sounds too good to be true this far out. Watch out from the south IMO


All major weather patterns come with a consequense, in this case, a major temperature pattern, will come with a repercussion. Are you understanding what I'm talking about here? I'm not saying that the cold air will not find itself into the Southeast, because undoubtedly speaking, it certainly will, soon enough, I'd say. However, it will be the formation of a tropical entity that initiates this process. Case and point, Wilma in 2005, what followed Wilma..................? I'll let you fill in those blanks, my friend. Even the GFS is already begining to see this type of a dangerous pattern coming about, as we head into the middle and latter half of Oct. Moral of the story, yes, were all absolutely beside ourselves (especially Ike) in wanting fall to arrive to the southern US; but at what price, at what price, do we want it so badly, that's the question, ladies and gents. Geeze, you do not need a Ph.D in Tropical Meteorology to figure that one out. Afterall, we all know what happens when two contrasting air-masses colliade with one another, don't we?
Is "Wilma-itis" a Condition or just a Flu Like symptom ?
505. P451
Interesting cloud formations at 20N, 120W.



506. P451
First snow flakes for New Jersey?

Mount Holly, NJ Discussion:

FOLLOWING PREVIOUS TRENDS, THE EXTENDED WITH SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALSO, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH LATE THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE PCPN TO BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW NORTH. EARLY
INDEED FOR SNOW IF IT HAPPENS. MODEL DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY THE POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS FCST TEMPS.

....we were at 40 this am with very patchy frost. Expect a more widespread frost tonight. The Autumn season isn't playing around this year.
507. P451
EPac - TD 19



Those neat looking clouds are NW of TD 19.

Quoting P451:
Interesting cloud formations at 20N, 120W.





stratocumulus clouds
509. xcool
510. P451
Quoting Weather456:


stratocumulus clouds


Thanks.

Very cool mass of them.

I hope MODIS captures that.
Quoting xcool:


An extraordinary MJO impulse headed our way, that's for damn sure.
456, thoughts for the rest of Oct. in regards to TC formation?
513. xcool
WeatherStudent yeah :)
X, take a look at post 484.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
456, thoughts for the rest of Oct. in regards to TC formation?
Hey WS,how's the stomach ? Looks like things might pick up a little in Cayman thanks to Henri. I at least hope it might bring some much needed rain. Temps still in the low 90's here.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


An extraordinary MJO impulse headed our way, that's for damn sure.
( gasp) you said a bad word.....lol
517. xcool
GFS SHOWING A LOW IN GOM???
456 is exHenri dead for good or is there any possibility of regeneration?
Quoting P451:


Thanks.

Very cool mass of them.

I hope MODIS captures that.


They can also be found in the EATL, SE Indian Ocean and EPAC as in that image.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hey WS,how's the stomach ? Looks like things might pick up a little in Cayman thanks to Henri. I at least hope it might bring some much needed rain. Temps still in the low 90's here.


Laurie, is that you? :)
Not just a low, but a full-fledge TS at that. It also takes it towards FL.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
456, thoughts for the rest of Oct. in regards to TC formation?


I think we have to potential to squeeze out alteast one more including a chance for a hurricane. The likely location and time would be mid October Western Caribbean Sea. My forecast was 2 named storms but as you known, that was accomplished in less than 7 days into October.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Laurie, is that you? :)
The one and only. LOL
Quoting Weather456:


I think we have to potential to squeeze out alteast one more including a chance for a hurricane. The likely location and time would be mid October Western Caribbean Sea. My forecast was 2 named storms but as you known, that was accomplished in less than 7 days into October.


Good point, sir. Are you believing the long-term GFS?
456, also, what are your thoughts on post 502, if you wouldn't mind?
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 is exHenri dead for good or is there any possibility of regeneration?


Been watching it and I could not find a discernible closed circulation, my original explanation was that the mountains of Northern Haiti was disrupting any signs of a closed circulation. Additional visible images only show small hints of the old center. I suspect its a surface trough ATM. Henri is embedded within a surge of dry deep easterly flow south of the deep layer ridge which is hindering the development of sustainable thunderstorms and has cause the center to become ill-define.
Quoting Weather456:


Been watching it and I could not find a discernible closed circulation, my original explanation was that the mountains of Northern Haiti was disrupting any signs of a closed circulation. Additional visible images only show small hints of the old center. I suspect its a surface trough ATM. Henri is embedded within a surge of dry deep easterly flow south of the deep layer ridge which is hindering the development of sustainable thunderstorms and has cause the center to become ill-define.
so time will tell? thanks
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good point, sir. Are you believing the long-term GFS?


I don't put much stock into models past 7 days for development and I want to see if other models come on board.
Quoting stormsurge39:
so time will tell? thanks


I posted it without even finishing, conditions are favorable in the NW Caribbean so only time will tell.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
How are ya, my love?
Alright. I take it the butterflies have settled. Is it as hot up there as it is down here ? 90's and very humid.
The Cayman Trench, the deepest part of the Caribbean at a staggering depth of over four miles. This is the area it seems XHenri is headed so he will have depth and heat to aid regeneration if he has a mind to.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Alright. I take it the butterflies have settled. Is it as hot up there as it is down here ? 90's and very humid.


For now, yes, it has. However, everytime I'm with her, the sensation increases quite a bit. yes, it's boiling up here right now, LOL.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


For now, yes, it has. However, everytime I'm with her, the sensation increases quite a bit. yes, it's boiling up here right now, LOL.
It must be nice to be young and in the first days of love.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It must be nice to be young and in the first days of love.


It is, it's like a healthy high. I'm sure that you've been there, done that, so could possibly relate to what I'm talking about. Anyways, I'll sent you a recent pic of us, through via-FaceBook ASAP. :)
537. jipmg
two fronts coming towards florida, one during the weekend, and one during mid week
Strong trough with a strong surface ridge behind it:

Quoting WeatherStudent:


It is, it's like a healthy high. I'm sure that you've been there, done that, so could possibly relate to what I'm talking about. Anyways, I'll sent you a recent pic of us, through via-FaceBook ASAP. :)
Yes, I have been there but that was so long ago I barely remember. Look forward to the pics.
Quoting Drakoen:
Strong trough with a strong surface ridge behind it:

What is your opinion on possibilities with XHenri ? Any chance something will come of it ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What is your opinion on possibilities with XHenri ? Any chance something will come of it ?


Nope
Quoting Drakoen:


Nope
Thanks.
It's gone already, Laurie, lol.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
It's gone already, Laurie, lol.
Ok.
invest_RENUMBER_ep922009_ep192009.ren

from 2PM EDT(18UTC)

TD 19 in East Pacific
You know, sometimes I see "10L" on a graph and I think it is communicating to us bloggers. It looks a lot like "LOL" or "lol".
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 112031
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...NINETEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2009 EAST PACIFIC SEASON
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4
WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 108.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


549. IKE
HPC 7 day forecast has the cold front making it all the way to western Cuba and the Yucatan...

Afternoon, all. We've had some cloudiness and a bit of rain in spots today. Will be interesting to see if ex-Henri does make anything of itself as it heads west. Temps here have been remarkably summerlike - low 90's by day with diurnal variation of 10 degrees or less - remarkable for October!

On the legislature, I have 2 observations:

1. Not surprised it was proposed by Republicans - the vast majority of sitting Republican members, IMO, seem more focused on immediate circumstances than on long-term effects

2. Isn't it interesting that the proposal is backed by a Senator from Texas, which is the hurricane prone state least likely to be hit by a hurricane that hasn't already been flown by numerous HH missions?

When Proenza made the stink he did about QuikSCAT's eminent failure, a lot of people in the tropical weather theatre thought he was just trying to make himself newsworthy. Unfortunately, he WAS also making a valid point about QuikSCAT's eminent failure. Too bad many outside the wx community (and some within it, even) saw that as an opportunity to ditch the baby with the dirty water it was being bathed in....

I also recall the doc posting some interesting information about the next-generation scatterometer that he felt should come online ASAP. However, a lot of that got lost in last year's "political shuffle". Hopefully this counterproductive proposal by the earnest senator from TX will stir some much-needed action in that direction.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 112032
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE NINETEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
FAVORS MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
IS A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WHICH BARELY MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL
STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
4 DAYS OR EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/05.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
CONTINUED SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER A
WEAKER...AND MORE SHALLOW...SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.3N 108.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 109.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting P451:
24 Hour Enhanced IR Imagery. California's Tuesday/Wednesday storms.



The remnant of Super Typhoon Melor is that blob behind that negatively tilted trough. The NWS is saying that the atmosphere in that blob is saturated from the surface to the tropopause! The big question as Tuesday draws closer is whether a wave will develop along the trailing cold front off the NorCal coast. If so, we may have something just shy of the alltime biggie Columbus Day Storm of 1962. For now, they're promising spectacular downpours with gale force winds, something we usually don't see until January.
Yes, I am aware of many factors inhibiting the remains of Henri from developing, however I still find it interesting to watch the circulation which still exists, now centered between Haiti and Cuba:

Quoting IKE:
HPC 7 day forecast has the cold front making it all the way to western Cuba and the Yucatan...



That's very unfortunate to see. The absolute ideal type of a pattern for Western Carib. TC formation to come about.
It all makes perfect sense now, no wonder the GFS begins to brew cyclogenises formation down there in a couple of weeks. Between the decaying cold front and the upward motion of the MJO, oh geeze, not a good combination at all.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Yes, I am aware of many factors inhibiting the remains of Henri from developing, however I still find it interesting to watch the circulation which still exists, now centered between Haiti and Cuba:

Still exists and heading wsw into hot Caribbean waters.
558. xcool
no cold air comeing soon anyway next.
The series of fronts reaching the Florida Straits will usually provoke tropical development in the NW Carib. especially with the MJO coming to play. I have seen temperatures drop to the 40's in S. Florida in October and the following week a Tropical Storms forms and crosses the SW Fla, Peninsula.
It does not always happen but this is a normal scenario of events in October for Florida Tropical threats.

By the way, the Henri swirl is moving more southwest between Cuba and Haiti. Not sure if he will survive but until the swirl dies you have to watch.
Quoting xcool:
no cold air comeing soon anyway next.
Last year Paloma developed from the tail end of a cold front. Doesn't get cold enough down here or long enough to make much difference in SST
Remember all, does were the same factors that lead to Wilma's formation; minus the ideal conditions in the Carib., of course. :)
562. jipmg
Quoting portcharlotte:
The series of fronts reaching the Florida Straits will usually provoke tropical development in the NW Carib. especially with the MJO coming to play. I have seen temperatures drop to the 40's in S. Florida in October and the following week a Tropical Storms forms and crosses the SW Fla, Peninsula.
It does not always happen but this is a normal scenario of events in October for Florida Tropical threats.

By the way, the Henri swirl is moving more southwest between Cuba and Haiti. Not sure if he will survive but until the swirl dies you have to watch.


the swirl is already dead based on visible satellite, and the winds are due east..

563. xcool
ha
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Yes, I am aware of many factors inhibiting the remains of Henri from developing, however I still find it interesting to watch the circulation which still exists, now centered between Haiti and Cuba:

Hey, CRS. Considering it's the only game in the basin, I guess I'll watch also.... lol... but I also suspect that there's enough motive circulation left with ex-Henri and TCHP fuel in its path to make watching at least interesting. While I don't say I expect a regeneration,if one occurs, that area between Cuba, JA, and the Caymans looks a likely location....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, CRS. Considering it's the only game in the basin, I guess I'll watch also.... lol... but I also suspect that there's enough motive circulation left with ex-Henri and TCHP fuel in its path to make watching at least interesting. While I don't say I expect a regeneration,if one occurs, that area between Cuba, JA, and the Caymans looks a likely location....
I agree and it wouldn't be the first time either. Water is very deep and hot in that area and wind shear is low.
xcool

can't see it

make it bigger please
Quoting aquak9:
xcool

can't see it

make it bigger please
Bite your tongue. LOL
568. IKE
Here's what the HPC says about what's left of Henri...

"SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 75W MOVE W BECOME DIFFUSE
TONIGHT.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W MOVE W TO 83W MON AND THROUGH
GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT AND TUE. TROPICAL WAVE E OF AREA
MOVE W TO ALONG 55W TUE NIGHT AND E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT REACHING
NEAR 72W FRI."
is that little swirl in the BOC of any consequence? I haven't been at home to watch ... just noticed it on vis
570. IKE
HPC outlook for the GOM....

"SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO 26N95W TO THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE NW AND OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. RIDGE
WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG 25N BY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THU REACHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NE
MEXICO AT MIDDAY FRI AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATE FRI."
Ike- is it for REAL?? are we REALLY gonna get some cooler temps here in North Florida?

Heat indices still hit 107º today.

Give me and the cat some good news, please.
572. xcool
aquak9 sorry
We've had a real dearth of Twave activity through the Bahamas this season. Usually a lot of the precipitation we get between June and September comes from Twaves passing through the area (we are always happy when that's ALL they are lol). This year, we've had quite a few precipitation events from southward decending, eastward bound troughs. I am now wondering if this is the kind of pattern to be expected over the Bahamas in el nino years. I don't recall the balance between waves and troughs being skewed so much in favor of the troughs in recent years, el nino or not....
aquak9, all I can add is that this is a bad time 4 ur A/C to break down....
575. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Ike- is it for REAL?? are we REALLY gonna get some cooler temps here in North Florida?

Heat indices still hit 107º today.

Give me and the cat some good news, please.


Yeah, it's for real.
576. xcool
Quoting jipmg:


the swirl is already dead based on visible satellite, and the winds are due east..



Sorry to disagree but if you look closely there still is a swirl if you know how to click loop!
I give the AOI near 20.0N 73.7W (Ex10L) a LOW(10-25%) chance of TC formation in the next 24 hours.


I give the AOI near 10.6N 137.6E (93W) a LOW(10-25%) chance of TC formation in the next 24 hours.

I agree w/ Pt.Charlotte that there does seem at least a remnant swirl about equidistant between the NWrn tip of Haiti and the SErn coast of Cuba.... drifting SW. Most of the convection seems well to its SW, though, if that means much....
Post 579: stormwatcher..looks nice at E.E today!
Quoting superpete:
Post 579: stormwatcher..looks nice at E.E today!
Very nice but HOT. If you step outside it feels like an oven. Nice little breeze though.
BTW, isn't this our former 92L? Looks like it has some good potential in the EPac....

Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, isn't this our former 92L? Looks like it has some good potential in the EPac....

Agreed. Seems to be moving wsw and holding convection all day.
586. beell
Quoting portcharlotte:


Sorry to disagree but if you look closely there still is a swirl if you know how to click loop!
Looked at the Sattellite swirl is Dead IMO
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very nice but HOT. If you step outside it feels like an oven. Nice little breeze though.
I just mowed the lawn,or what is left of it with the absence of rain(as you know).We could certainly do with is cooling down a little! Nice breeze from the NE here on N.Sound
589. P451
Quoting tmangray:


The remnant of Super Typhoon Melor is that blob behind that negatively tilted trough. The NWS is saying that the atmosphere in that blob is saturated from the surface to the tropopause! The big question as Tuesday draws closer is whether a wave will develop along the trailing cold front off the NorCal coast. If so, we may have something just shy of the alltime biggie Columbus Day Storm of 1962. For now, they're promising spectacular downpours with gale force winds, something we usually don't see until January.


Thanks for analyzing the imagery! Very interesting scenario. Let us hope not life threatening.

Meanwhile, x-Henri, who is nearly dead, still has a twist to him in this Rainbow imagery (and if you look bad in Rainbow you barely exist). Central coastal portion of SE Cuba - note the twist. We shall see what happens tomorrow when he makes it back over water.



Other interesting thing:



I'm noticing how close that shortwave is to the Twave with the low to the south. Seems to me the precip over JA is being stimulated more by the Twave.... so how seriously can we expect any redevelopment of Henri while in such close proximity to the forementioned Twave.....?
Quoting superpete:
I just mowed the lawn,or what is left of it with the absence of rain(as you know).We could certainly do with is cooling down a little! Nice breeze from the NE here on N.Sound
The thing I posted shows rain in EE but I sure would like to know where it is. I could've counted the drops that fell.
Henri's jamaican me crazy with that track of his.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Henri's jamaican me crazy with that track of his.
Ha. Ha.

Talk abt pun-ctilious...
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still exists and heading wsw into hot Caribbean waters.

I think we may be in for some nasty weather from Ex Henri, the LLC is much better defined this evening imo.
Miami Forecast Discussion


THIS HOT/HUMID PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE
PROMISING SIGNS (IF YOU`RE LIKE ME AND WANT AN END TO THIS HIGH
HUMIDITY AND HEAT!) THAT A COLD FRONT COULD PLOW THROUGH HERE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY...CLEARING OUT THE HIGH
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLY BRINGING AN END TO THE "RAINY SEASON".
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS SCENARIO. GFS MOS SHOWS HIGHS A
WEEK FROM TODAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...DEWPOINTS IN THE COMFORTABLE 50S AND 60S. THIS WOULD
BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS THE MEDIAN END DATE OF THE RAINY SEASON IS
OCTOBER 17TH (THOUGH IT HAS GONE AS LATE AS NOVEMBER 5TH). THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI-SAT. THE
INHERITED FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL...SO THERE WAS NO
REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST.
TAFB seems to expect our Twave to interact w/ a broad area of low pressure, then move into the EPac. No formation forecast 3 days out, though.

Could happen.

Also am noting that the next available Twave is not riding so low as this one, and is likely to enter the CAR closer to 15N than 10N. This will be closer to the upswing in MJO, too, meaning it is likely to have a better chance than either 92L or Henri the former....
I'm glad someone liked it Baha--my partner just groans ;) Or in extreme cases, tosses me in the pool.
Quoting BahaHurican:
TAFB seems to expect our Twave to interact w/ a broad area of low pressure, then move into the EPac. No formation forecast 3 days out, though.

Could happen.

Also am noting that the next available Twave is not riding so low as this one, and is likely to enter the CAR closer to 15N than 10N. This will be closer to the upswing in MJO, too, meaning it is likely to have a better chance than either 92L or Henri the former....


UKMET Office forecasts development

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 8.8N 89.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.10.2009 8.8N 89.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.10.2009 9.8N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2009 11.0N 94.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2009 11.7N 96.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2009 12.5N 98.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2009 13.0N 99.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.10.2009 14.1N 100.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.10.2009 14.4N 103.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Combining 496 and 496, we could have an interesting weekend coming up.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


UKMET Office forecasts development

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 60 : 8.8N 89.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.10.2009 8.8N 89.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.10.2009 9.8N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2009 11.0N 94.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2009 11.7N 96.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2009 12.5N 98.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2009 13.0N 99.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.10.2009 14.1N 100.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.10.2009 14.4N 103.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Hmmm.... TAFB does put a X Low mark on their map, so I guess this is possible. Wonder if OPC's EPac forecast maps go that low.... they go out to 96 hours w/their forecasts...

Nope - only to 20N.... :o(
bump
bump bump

Tonight at 10:53 CDT (120353Z) will make it 30 years since aircraft reconnaissance measured a SLP of 870 mb in the eye of Super Typhoon Tip.
Quoting stormpetrol:

I think we may be in for some nasty weather from Ex Henri, the LLC is much better defined this evening imo.
Hope he brings some rain.
1900hurricane that's something worth comemerating. I wonder if we'll ever see that record broken.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hope it he brings some rain.

hi guys if it becomes a td again I would be happy even a weak ts would be good I am cooking myself we need rain and some nice wind
607. jipmg
Quoting P451:


Thanks for analyzing the imagery! Very interesting scenario. Let us hope not life threatening.

Meanwhile, x-Henri, who is nearly dead, still has a twist to him in this Rainbow imagery (and if you look bad in Rainbow you barely exist). Central coastal portion of SE Cuba - note the twist. We shall see what happens tomorrow when he makes it back over water.





you do know that is just a middle level swirl.. the actual "center" is south and east of the convection
608. IKE
609. amd
Quoting jipmg:


you do know that is just a middle level swirl.. the actual "center" is south and east of the convection


agreed, the middle level swirl is just a remnant from the convection burst earlier today.

ExHenri will actually end up going between Cuba and Haiti.

Ex Henri Visible loop

But, development is not expected due to very dry air still in the atmosphere.

Very Dry Air Entering the Caribbean
possible LLC of ex Henri located approximately 19.5N/75W in my estimation.
Interesting long-range GFS 18z slamming a system into the Gulf Coast.
612. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting long-range GFS 18z slamming a system into the Gulf Coast.


Just fixing to post that....at 348 hours...

613. xcool
oh noooo
Quoting stormpetrol:
possible LLC of ex Henri located approximately 19.5N/75W in my estimation.

I happen to agree with you and there is a possi.for it to redevelop when it reaches 77-78w
you know one of my teacher told me that he would like henri to come here and cause the school to close down for 3 days he says he needs a break from work
616. IKE
Interesting to see what happens with a MJO coming in the next 2 weeks.
Quoting IKE:
Interesting to see what happens with a MJO coming in the next 2 weeks.


A lot of the GGEM ensembles show a storm coming into the GOM directing the system into Florida.
The extratropical remnants of Melor is expected to deepen to a 976 mb storm as it approaches the West Coast of the United States later this week. The southern part of the storm may interact with tropical moisture to create a long fetch of moisture from the Pacific into the west coast to cause heavy rainfall that may exceed 5 inches. High winds of Beaufort scale 6-7 is expected kick up swells of 15ft mainly along the California and Oregon coasts.









619. beell
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting long-range GFS 18z slamming a system into the Gulf Coast.


Big jump to the NW and faster than today's 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z. Which showed a system coming up along a frontal boundary into Cuba. Which would take a pretty strong front to penetrate that far.

An academic discussion at 348 hrs. But what better place for it than here!
Good day 456,

It seems like alot of wishcasting is going during these quiet times. What is your take on the long range GFS?
Quoting AtlantaMET:
Good day 456,

It seems like alot of wishcasting is going during these quiet times. What is your take on the long range GFS?


If it is there within 168 hrs, then I'll buy it. Otherwise, it's a reflection of what we have seen earlier this season, where the models show these systems and they never occurred. Not saying that the model is not being reasonable since the MJO, warm SSTs plus the climatological favorable area but 348 hrs is hard to verify.
Quoting Weather456:


If it is there within 168 hrs, then I'll buy it. Otherwise, it's a reflection of what we have seen earlier this season, where the models show these systems and they never occurred. Not saying that the model is not being reasonable since the MJO, warm SSTs plus the climatological favorable area but 348 hrs is hard to verify.


Thank you.
623. P451
Quoting jipmg:


you do know that is just a middle level swirl.. the actual "center" is south and east of the convection


I do. Read earlier in the blog you'll see where I posted about the LLC being off to the east of the convection. All I said was he has a twist in that imagery. He does. You're over-reading into my comments.

624. jipmg
link to the long range models?
626. beell
Quoting jipmg:
link to the long range models?


Link
627. beell
ok,sorry. here's another.
Link


We have scheduled the preliminary planning conference call for our 2nd Annual Portlight/WU Honor Walk for Thursdsay, October 15 @ 7:30PM EST

The call in number is:(800)929-7487

Participant code: 75434753#

The call will last no more than one hour.

Please, please join us...
629. amd
thank goodness the shear was not like this in early September in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico:

Lowest shear all season in gulf and much of Caribbean

I am wondering if the shear is that low why the hell is henri doing
I think this image tells a lot of the story re: ex-Henri and 92L....


Water vapor imagery...

On the long distance forecast, I think we all would agree that in that time frame the model forecast becomes more of a possibility than a probability....
632. amd
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I am wondering if the shear is that low why the hell is henri doing


ex Henri is located within a very dry upper and mid level air mass which is depressing convection development near the center. Interaction with both cuba and haiti is causing inflow problems for ex Henri, so ex Henri is having trouble sustaining any circulation.
Quoting amd:


ex Henri is located within a very dry upper and mid level air mass which is depressing convection development near the center. Interaction with both cuba and haiti is causing inflow problems for ex Henri, so ex Henri is having trouble sustaining any circulation.

well looking at the ir and vis loop the circulation is getting organised in the circulation and gaining a little convection on that circulation and in the wv loop it is getting into a little bit moist environment


gonna be a cold night

killing frost adv.issued
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I am wondering if the shear is that low why the hell is henri doing


shear is only 1 factor

Henri is embedded within a surge of dry easterly flow which is inhibiting the system from producing sustainable deep convection and a well-define LLC.
636. beell
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well looking at the ir and vis loop the circulation is getting organised in the circulation and gaining a little convection on that circulation and in the wv loop it is getting into a little bit moist environment


Most of that moisture you see on wv is EDIT: lower level. Mid levels remain dry and this has hurt xHenri's ability to sustain convection necessary for organization.
Quoting beell:


Most of that moisture you see on wv is upper level. Mid levels remain dry and this has hurt xHenri's ability to sustain convection necessary for organization.


Kingston, Jamaica

638. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think this image tells a lot of the story re: ex-Henri and 92L....


Water vapor imagery...

On the long distance forecast, I think we all would agree that in that time frame the model forecast becomes more of a possibility than a probability....


Here's 36 hours of Henri in WV Imagery. Not all that impressed towards the end but he has managed to hang on this long so it will still be watched.

639. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


gonna be a cold night

killing frost adv.issued


Quoting amd:
thank goodness the shear was not like this in early September in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico:

Lowest shear all season in gulf and much of Caribbean



That is unfavorable low shear. The low shear values are within the axis of the TUTT. Also, the flow is nearly zonal in the Gulf of Mexico.
641. P451
12 Hours of the California systems.

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009


...SNOW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY...

.SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
LIKELY IN THE FAIRMONT AND ALBERT LEA AREAS. SNOW TOTALS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
BY MONDAY EVENING.
Quoting P451:


Here's 36 hours of Henri in WV Imagery. Not all that impressed towards the end but he has managed to hang on this long so it will still be watched.

Yeah, what I noticed is that although there is some moisture in the immediate vicinity of Henri, there's still an evelope of dry air in which he is embedded. To me this means less likelihood that other positive factors in his path will be taken advantage of.

Quoting Drakoen:


That is unfavorable low shear. The low shear values are within the axis of the TUTT. Also, the flow is nearly zonal in the Gulf of Mexico.
Interesting that low shear doesn't automatically mean favorable conditions. But I see amd's point; even unfavorable low shear is one step up from even more unfavorable high shear, as was seen 4 weeks ago....

More interested in seeing what begins to eventuate next weekend, when other factors become a bit more favorable. BTW, any comments on what GFS is picking up on as steering a system into the GOM instead of up and over Cuba (the more usual pattern)??
Anything new in the Tropics tonight?
647. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, what I noticed is that although there is some moisture in the immediate vicinity of Henri, there's still an evelope of dry air in which he is embedded. To me this means less likelihood that other positive factors in his path will be taken advantage of.


Yeah, I see what you are talking about. Good analysis. Thanks.



Quoting StormW:
Good evening.


Good evening. Not much going on. California is looking like the top AOI out there in the coming days.
A couple clouds over the gulf.About it.
Quoting Dakster:
Anything new in the Tropics tonight?

ex-henri is hanging on very well and ex 92l going good as well and both need to be watch
Quoting IKE:


Just fixing to post that....at 348 hours...



Wait...Are those models hinting at a possible Superstorm(Storm Of The Century)?
Thanks Guys/Gals for the quickie update...

GFS at 384 Hrs... I wouldn't bet the bank on that one.
652. P451
Quoting weatherbro:


Wait...Are those models hinting at a possible Superstorm(Storm Of The Century)?


Damn, you're right, that does look like the 93 superstorm doesn't it!

Heh...

...but well, yeah, anything beyond 144 hours has what... 0.000000000000001% credibility?

Still interesting though.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ex-henri is hanging on very well and ex 92l going good as well and both need to be watch


Henri isn't looking that good tonight I think he was disrupted by Cuba. Still, it will be watched.

92 is done as far as the "atlantic basin" is considered. It will be a Pacific threat I think though.

653. beell
Quoting Weather456:


Kingston, Jamaica



Thanks W456, My bad.
I did mean to post "lower". Been following the dry air for a couple days at least.

I fixed it!
Quoting StormW:
Good evening.
Good evening. How are you ?


Anybody notice anything interesting abt this 18Z surface analysis? Here's the related discussion...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 6N42W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LEADS A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-82W...AND FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

.......

A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF HENRI...IS THE FAR SW ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 22N72W TO 18N74W. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS S OF 21N IN THE
CARIBBEAN.

Here's an IR of the area...

Quoting P451:


Damn, you're right, that does look like the 93 superstorm doesn't it!

Heh...

...but well, yeah, anything beyond 144 hours has what... 0.000000000000001% credibility?

Still interesting though.



Henri isn't looking that good tonight I think he was disrupted by Cuba. Still, it will be watched.

92 is done as far as the "atlantic basin" is considered. It will be a Pacific threat I think though.



Yep...I remember earlier this year(early March) when models were going haywire on one possible Extra-tropical giant only to back off at the last minute.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, what I noticed is that although there is some moisture in the immediate vicinity of Henri, there's still an evelope of dry air in which he is embedded. To me this means less likelihood that other positive factors in his path will be taken advantage of.

Interesting that low shear doesn't automatically mean favorable conditions. But I see amd's point; even unfavorable low shear is one step up from even more unfavorable high shear, as was seen 4 weeks ago....

More interested in seeing what begins to eventuate next weekend, when other factors become a bit more favorable. BTW, any comments on what GFS is picking up on as steering a system into the GOM instead of up and over Cuba (the more usual pattern)??


It's strictly extra-tropical. It either may be nothing or The Perfect Storm.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I happen to agree with you and there is a possi.for it to redevelop when it reaches 77-78w
you know one of my teacher told me that he would like henri to come here and cause the school to close down for 3 days he says he needs a break from work


How COOL!!!!! Sheesh
the E PAC has a new name storm now


000
WHXX01 KMIA 120044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC MON OCT 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN (EP192009) 20091012 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091012 0000 091012 1200 091013 0000 091013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 108.5W 19.4N 109.1W 21.2N 109.4W 22.8N 109.7W
BAMD 17.6N 108.5W 18.7N 109.3W 20.0N 109.9W 21.3N 109.8W
BAMM 17.6N 108.5W 18.8N 109.4W 20.1N 109.9W 21.2N 109.9W
LBAR 17.6N 108.5W 19.1N 108.6W 21.1N 108.6W 23.2N 108.3W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091014 0000 091015 0000 091016 0000 091017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 109.6W 25.5N 109.5W 24.7N 110.7W 24.5N 112.9W
BAMD 21.8N 110.2W 22.6N 112.9W 22.9N 116.1W 22.5N 119.2W
BAMM 21.7N 110.5W 22.3N 113.2W 22.2N 117.1W 21.7N 121.1W
LBAR 25.9N 107.4W 29.6N 103.9W 28.7N 97.9W 28.0N 90.6W
SHIP 46KTS 47KTS 44KTS 43KTS
DSHP 46KTS 47KTS 44KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 108.2W DIRM12 = 352DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 108.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 0
Evening, Senior Chief, how are ya? Laurie, I sent you my pic already. :)
Quoting StormW:


Good! You?

what new stormw
663. amd
Quoting weatherbro:


It's strictly extra-tropical. It either may be nothing or The Perfect Storm.


even though the 384 hrs gfs forecast has almost zero chance of actually happening, I respectfully disagree with both the strictly extratropical or perfect storm analogies. First, the low at its peak in the gulf is south of the 20 C 850 mb line, therefore temperatures aloft would support a tropical system. Furthermore, there is no cold air at all to support a perfect storm analysis. As the superstorm was forming in the central gulf, the 0C line at 850 mb extended from south texas to just north of NE through Birmingham and then Atlanta. With the "storm" on the long range GFS, the 0C line at 850mb is north of 50 North.

fantastic writeup of the storm of the century

Finally, one thing of important note for those wishing for a cold, early start to winter with the long range gfs. Notice the strength of the subtropical high (1028 mb) and the strong icelandic low just off the gfs picture. Could be the beginning of a positive nao that w456 mentioned a couple of weeks ago.
850 vort has increased with ex-henri
Quoting amd:


even though the 384 hrs gfs forecast has almost zero chance of actually happening, I respectfully disagree with both the strictly extratropical or perfect storm analogies. First, the low at its peak in the gulf is south of the 20 C 850 mb line, therefore temperature aloft would support a tropical system. Furthermore, there is no cold air at all to support a perfect storm analysis. As the superstorm was forming in the central gulf, the 0C line extended from south texas to just north of NE through Birmingham and then Atlanta. With the "storm" on the long range GFS, the 0C line is north of 50 North.

fantastic writeup of the storm of the century

Finally, one thing of important note for those wishing for a cold, early start to winter with the long range gfs. Notice the strength of the subtropical high (1028 mb) and the strong icelandic low just off the gfs picture. Could be the beginning of a positive nao that w456 mentioned a couple of weeks ago.
In short, for us rookies, what is the perfect storm?
Quoting stormsurge39:
In short, for us rookies, what is the perfect storm?


Its still out there,..and thats why a number of us here stress Preparation,cuz after the Wind and rain goes away,well misery is ones companion,and shes no Lady.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Evening, Senior Chief, how are ya? Laurie, I sent you my pic already. :)
You sure ?
Quoting StormW:


Good! You?
I'm ok. Watching XHenri due to the close proximity but doubt anything will happen or not much anyway. Just glad if we get some rain out of it.
671. amd
Quoting stormsurge39:
In short, for us rookies, what is the perfect storm?


the perfect storm (As least as it is being referred to in this case) was a 1993 mega winter storm in mid march caused by extreme differences in temperatures between a strong arctic airmass and the very warm waters of the southern gulf of mexico. The low deepened to 960 mb in Southeast New Jersey (2nd strongest non-tropical storm in terms of pressure in US History). Furthermore, snow was noted from the gulf coast of northwest Florida to the Canadian Maritimes. Severe weather was noted in Florida, Cuba, and even southern Belize. At its peak, the storm stretched from Halifax to central america
Quoting amd:


the perfect storm (As least as it is being referred to in this case) was a 1993 mega winter storm in mid march caused by extreme differences in temperatures between a strong arctic airmass and the very warm waters of the southern gulf of mexico. The low deepened to 960 mb in Southeast New Jersey (2nd strongest non-tropical storm in terms of pressure in US History). Furthermore, snow was noted from the gulf coast of northwest Florida to the Canadian Maritimes. Severe weather was noted in Florida, Cuba, and even southern Belize. At its peak, the storm stretched from Halifax to central america
Thanks, I wasnt aware of it back then!
677. amd
Quoting StormW:


You have that graphic?


Link

I was just going by the 850 mb chart that IKE posted on post 612. I think the subtropical high may be displaced a bit far to the north, and unfortunately, I can't find the exact location of the center of the North Atlantic low (although it looks like it would be near Iceland).

678. P451
Quoting stormsurge39:
In short, for us rookies, what is the perfect storm?


First off, I wanted to post this GIF I just made, so I will do so LOL - and bid everyone a good night.



Now, I witnessed the perfect storm, first hand, wading through it's flooding, in coastal NJ (sea bright NJ to be exact, a younger version of myself, chest deep in freezing water, getting hammered by waves flying over the sea wall, like a complete fool I must say) I was smart in leaving my car in a parking lot in Rumson NJ and walking my way across the bridge and up the strip....only to realize as the storm drew closer and the tide higher I had to walk back home. Yeah, that was something else let me tell you. By the time I got to the car I was numb, I had ice on my clothes, and my friend and I were pretty much done at that point. Dumb adventure but fun adventure.

But, I'm not into detailed story telling right now I need to log off here.

So, here is the PERFECT STORM and here is the UNNAMED 91 CANE it produced.

Happy reading.

DIdn't they make a movie about the perfect storm too. called "The Perfect Storm."???



680. P451
Quoting Patrap:





That thing was amazing for us in NJ. Just...amazing! Buried entire cars! 28" I think I recall was what we got. 60" drifts. Got great stories behind it but I am done for the night. Long day. Long day tomorrow. So off I go. *poof*

So, Storm, do you still think that we'll see another ''puff'' or two, before the season really closes?
Quoting P451:


That thing was amazing for us in NJ. Just...amazing! Buried entire cars! 28" I think I recall was what we got. 60" drifts. Got great stories behind it but I am done for the night. Long day. Long day tomorrow. So off I go. *poof*



Here in NOLA,..we had sleet the size of peas,winds,..twas a Hellacious night ...
384 hours?

WOwsa...thats like 2012 almost,..LOL
Quoting Dakster:
DIdn't they make a movie about the perfect storm too. called "The Perfect Storm."???



Yes. With George Clooney
That would be a bad un fo sho Chief,..that run ,well.


Im gonna put it in the back of the file for now.


But not far..

Also a book, on which the movie was based, by IIRC, Sebastian Junger?
Quoting StormW:


Depends on what you're smokin'! j/k

Still possible...though probably closer to one.

LOL
On Friday March 12, 1993 a strong low pressure system developed in the Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure system continued to strengthen dramatically and moved northeastward into the mid Atlantic coastal region by Saturday evening, March 13th. Besides producing a record snowstorm in the eastern United States, this low pressure system produced an intense squall line with embedded bow echoes ahead of the system's cold front.

The squall line produced a serial derecho as it swept across the Florida peninsula, Cuba, and adjacent waters. The squall line reached the northern portion of the west coast of Florida and western Cuba between 11 PM and midnight EST on the evening of the 12th. After creating much damage and many casualties, the storm line passed off the shore of southeastern Florida about 5 AM EST on the morning of the 13th and pulled out of central Cuba after sunrise.

Much wind damage occurred across Florida with measured wind gusts reaching a maximum of 96 mph in the Tampa Bay area. Supercells embedded within the squall line produced tornadoes in the northern half of the Florida peninsula with some reaching F2 intensity.

As the derecho producing squall line raced through Florida, 7 people were killed and 79 were injured from the strong derecho winds and embedded tornadoes. The storm system winds blew down many trees, power poles, and power lines, tore roofs off homes, severely damaged mobile homes, and overturned large trucks.

As the derecho was passing through Florida it was also passing through Cuba. This event resulted in 10 deaths and many injuries in western and central Cuba. Economic losses in Cuba exceed one billion U.S. dollars.

Mr. W, do you find it plausable what the long range GFS has recently begun to predict for latter half of October, sir?
Ha, lol, good one, Storm. I know you caught my jist, there. So your thinking one more, then?
I think now the term has come to mean an unusual combination of wx conditions which allows for or causes massive destruction....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Also a book, on which the movie was based, by IIRC, Sebastian Junger?
Well..for sure there is a lot of leftover energy pooled in the GOM and it would only take the right set of bad mojo, to Tap that,.. and well,we all know what that can do.
I found this on wiki....

A "perfect storm" is an expression that describes an event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically.[1] The term is also used to describe a hypothetical hurricane that happens to hit at a region’s most vulnerable area, resulting in the worst possible damage by a hurricane of its magnitude.

The phrase "perfect storm" occurred as early as the 1840's when Thackeray used it in his book, "Vanity Fair." The quote can be found in chapter 8. "I have heard a brother of the story-telling trade, at Naples, preaching to a pack of good-for-nothing honest lazy fellows by the sea-shore, work himself up into such a rage and passion with some of the villains whose wicked deeds he was describing and inventing, that the audience could not resist it; and they and the poet together would burst out into a roar of oaths and execrations against the fictitious monster of the tale, so that the hat went round, and the bajocchi tumbled into it, in the midst of a perfect storm of sympathy."


So apparently the term has been around for a while, but more as a metaphor rather than as a weather term.
Quoting StormW:


Thanks...I was going by the 384 map:




guys this is vary vary un likey this is 384hrs out and i dont trust any thing that way far out the olny thing the 384hr is this fun and games for some in that far out


dont trust any thing that far out
Ok, what's going on that the GFS is predicting? Another superstorm?
Considering the low level of activity in the western part of the basin this season, I'd be surprised if whatever does manage to spin up in the WCar or GOM gets to hurricane status - due to available untapped fuel. How long it stays there is anybody's guess, though. Even w/ more favorable MJO and potentially lower shear values, I'm not so convinced the basin will produce anything else. Actually, the thing that's making me feel something MIGHT blow up is this pattern of abnormally warm weather along the 20N - 30N area.
Quoting StormW:


Depends on what you're smokin'! j/k

Still possible...though probably closer to one.

Hi StormW speaking of smoking I think the 384 GFS has been smoking something or the guy running the model
705. beell
18Z 500mb GFS @ 348 hrs


18Z 10 meter winds @ 348 hrs


Not of tropical origin.
A cold core upper low with a strong surface reflection.
Never doubt the GOM in Late October-early November



Hurricane Juan near peak intensity


Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

Quoting beell:
18Z 500mb GFS @ 348 hrs


18Z 10 meter winds @ 348 hrs


Not of tropical origin.
Not Tropical, but still deadly right?
Quoting Patrap:
Never doubt the GOM in Late October-early November



Hurricane Juan near peak intensity


Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

That was one heck of a loopty loop!!
711. beell
Quoting stormsurge39:
Not Tropical, but still deadly right?


A deadly looking model. The upper low could just as easily track across the center of the country. It looks more like a tornado outbreak than anything. As modeled, shear favorable for tornadoes could even be too strong to allow strong, tall updrafts to develop.
712. beell
Quoting StormW:


Trof split.


LOL!
Surface reflection!!
Quoting stormsurge39:
That was one heck of a loopty loop!!



Sure was,,Juan Lingered and the Flooding below NOLA was terrible,esp in Lafitte and other areas.
Juan's steering went Null and well,..He was a stubborn Fella for days..
Quoting Patrap:



Sure was,,Juan Lingered and the Flooding below NOLA was terrible,esp in Lafitte and other areas.
Juan's steering went Null and well,..He was a stubborn Fella for days..
How did Juan form?
Quoting stormsurge39:
How did Juan form?




Meteorological history

Storm path

An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on the 26th.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of the 29th. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on the 29th, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on the 30th over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of the 3rd. Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record across West Virginia.

Some to this day cuss Juan,,due to the dreadful toll it took on many.

And many still say Juan was a"Neutercane",..and thats a story well,StormW probably remembers the discussions on them and how they became what we call Hybrids today
Quoting beell:


A deadly looking model. The upper low could just as easily track across the center of the country. It looks more like a tornado outbreak than anything. As modeled, shear favorable for tornadoes could even be too strong to allow strong, tall updrafts to develop.


That woke me up!
Its sounds like the 384hr map is for entertainment!! Why even have it?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Its sounds like the 384hr map is for entertainment!! Why even have it?


Well - it's entertaining...
Quoting StormW:


Trof split.


So you don't think it'll be of tropical nature then, storm?
721. beell
Appreciate your thoughts Storm. Sure not gonna rule anything out but the low is still an intact entity at 500mb/384hrs.

Climo might indicate this upper low will not dig that far south.

Quoting Patrap:




Meteorological history
Storm path

An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on the 26th.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of the 29th. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on the 29th, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on the 30th over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of the 3rd. Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record across West Virginia.

Some to this day cuss Juan,,due to the dreadful toll it took on many.

And many still say Juan was a"Neutercane",..and thats a story well,StormW probably remembers the discussions on them and how they became what we call Hybrids today
Yea, I remember that storm now, i was just a kid living here in Mobile, and i remember my parents talking about it how we would be on the "good" side of it. Thanks
Quoting tornadofan:


Well - it's entertaining...
LOL point taken
Thanks, storm
Despite its strength?
The storm that the GFS is showing is tropical. The low pressure system that it has tracks up from the EPAC. At 324hr the 500mb low pressure system it well to the north of the surface low in the Bay of Campeche. The 500mb low closes off from a sharp 500mb longwave trough. This large low acts as a steering mechanism rather than direct association with the tropical low. In addition the surface low has a 582dm on the 1000-500mb thickness chart. The moisture field is also very much like a tropical cyclone.
Looks like XHenri is Xd for good!!
730. beell
Good point, Drak. I saw that. But I don't buy that solution-yet. But I do see what appears to be two separate systems merging. That would be awesome!
Quoting beell:
Good point, Drak. I saw that. But I don't buy that solution-yet. But I do see what appears to be two separate systems merging. That would be awesome!


Yes I saw the two merging by 384hr.
Quoting tornadofan:


Well - it's entertaining...
and in 24 to 36 hrs it will change several times always does always will
733. beell
Quoting StormW:


I think too, for a SWEAT, the trof would have to become negatively tilted.


At 336hrs
True enough, a negative tilt increases PVA but this fantasy system looks plenty strong enough to get the job done even with a bit of positive tilt.

A warm sector covering most of the SE. A warm front/boundary extending to the NE from the surface low out of LA.
20 knots of southeasterly flow off the GOM over S LA and MS
35 knots SSE at 850mb
70 knot jet streak over LA from the SW.

If this was tomorrow...I'd be hiding!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and in 24 to 36 hrs it will change several times always does always will
Yep.
737. beell
Tornicanes...that's my forecast lol
or maybe
Hurrinadoes
741. beell
Night, Storm
I have speculated enough.
Will lurk awhile then off to dream of models...
Give it up folks
ditto, storm. interesting times ahead...
This blog is in la la land, dreamcasting about systems 300+ hrs out lol
Quoting RitaEvac:
Give it up folks

yuppers. i'm done.
God knows what will happen.
746. beell
734.
you'd almost think it was frontal.
Sure would!
I'm wishcasting more for the first arctic blast of the season to sweep down, everybody else still holding on for that one big perfect storm of 09 in the tropics
Quoting beell:
Tornicanes...that's my forecast lol
or maybe
Hurrinadoes
yep up here in grt lakes we will get snownado's


Good night, all.
Quoting Patrap:



Sure was,,Juan Lingered and the Flooding below NOLA was terrible,esp in Lafitte and other areas.
Juan's steering went Null and well,..He was a stubborn Fella for days..


To this day, I am still puzzled as to why Juan wasn't retired.
evening all what are you all talking about a derecho event?
lol 16 days out your talking about this? I know they detected the super storm of 93 a few days in advance but I'd wait till under five days out to be concerned about this. Interesting though.



yeah................
KoritheMan Please talk with me on IM
Quoting KoritheMan:


To this day, I am still puzzled as to why Juan wasn't retired.

I have always wondered the same thing as well, especially since Juan caused more damage than either Elena or Gloria, both of which retired that year...
757. xcool
Good evening everyone, below is a link to the NWS Reno, NV office, with detailed written and verbal explanations of what is expected for the Sierra Nevada Mtns, enjoy!
Please copy and paste this, I apologize everyone:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/Briefing/player.html
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good evening everyone, below is a link to the NWS Reno, NV office, with detailed written and verbal explanations of what is expected for the Sierra Nevada Mtns, enjoy!
Link


sierra mountains are suppose to get 120mph winds
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good evening everyone, below is a link to the NWS Reno, NV office, with detailed written and verbal explanations of what is expected for the Sierra Nevada Mtns, enjoy!
Link

I'm having problems with that link? Sorry, don't know why. Wanted to look. Did anyone else?
Quoting juslivn:

I'm having problems with that link? Sorry, don't know why. Wanted to look. Did anyone else?

Me also. I'm using Firefox, if that makes any difference.
Link

for reno

ok not the same, but his is cool
763. xcool
Link

goo here
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good evening everyone, below is a link to the NWS Reno, NV office, with detailed written and verbal explanations of what is expected for the Sierra Nevada Mtns, enjoy!
Link

I'll find it. Thanks. Don't worry about it.
Thnx for Reno reports.
Welcome to the not so tropical blog, lest bring on the winter, I am tired of tracking thunderstorms.
30 years ago from this minute, aircraft reconnaissance recorded a pressure of 870 mbs within the eye of Super Typhoon Tip: the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Link

for reno

ok not the same, but his is cool


Try typing in: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/Briefing/player.html

Sorry everyone
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Me also. I'm using Firefox, if that makes any difference.

Try pasting and copying this:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/Briefing/player.html
Quoting juslivn:

I'll find it. Thanks. Don't worry about it.

Try copying and pasting this:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/Briefing/player.html
1900hurricane, I wonder what the true record is--if we had continual recon flights into every typhoon for 100 years--what the record would then be. I suspect the ultimate deepest is in the high 850 mb range---call it 858.

For that matter, if recon had made another eye penetration into Wilma another hour later, I bet it would have been down to the upper 870s at least.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Thnx for Reno reports.

Notice, the the higher Sierra Nevada peaks are expecting wind gusts up to 145 MPH!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Try pasting and copying this:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/Briefing/player.html

Very cool, thnx. 120 mph pretty impressive for not-the-tropics or tornado alley.
whoops, 145 mph, worse yet.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Try copying and pasting this:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/Briefing/player.html


Ty. Wow.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Very cool, thnx. 120 mph pretty impressive for not-the-tropics or tornado alley.

Mountain peaks in the Sierra Nevada range normally have very high winds with each major area of Low pressure that pushes up and over the mountain range. I've never heard of them receiving 145MPH wind gusts though!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1900hurricane, I wonder what the true record is--if we had continual recon flights into every typhoon for 100 years--what the record would then be. I suspect the ultimate deepest is in the high 850 mb range---call it 858.

For that matter, if recon had made another eye penetration into Wilma another hour later, I bet it would have been down to the upper 870s at least.

That is a very good question, and one that I will address in my blog once it is finished. There are actually more discrepancies in the central pressures than most people actually know about: Tip even has one! What if aircraft reconnaissance took the measurement in the eye of tip a few hours earlier when the cloud tops were near their coldest? For Wilma, one of the questions is what if one of the dropsondes didn't miss? Then there are storms like Gay, Angela, and Monica where no direct measurements were available and we can't help but wonder if at their peak intensity that they were stronger than Tip. All of this should be in my blog once I have it completed.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Notice, the the higher Sierra Nevada peaks are expecting wind gusts up to 145 MPH!

145mph winds.... wow. Aviation challenges they've probably never seen before.
I look forward to seeing your analysis of that question 1900!

I've been doing a series on Georgia major hurricanes of the 1800s and there is a serious discrepancy between Dr. Francis Ho's analyzed intensity (931 mb) and HURDAT (954 mb). I think Dr. Ho is right, but it's too bad we didn't have recon then!
Is the latest GFS out yet, y'all? I'm dying to see it.
I wrote both "my" senators regarding QuickSCAT and the NASA funding (though honestly, I didn't vote for either one of them, so they're not technically "mine")...
Quoting SigmetActive:
I wrote both "my" senators regarding QuickSCAT and the NASA funding (though honestly, I didn't vote for either one of them, so they're not technically "mine")...


I'm from Texas and the two from here, I'm ashamed to admit, are sponsor and co-sponsor. (Notice...I didn't say mine). I wrote them both, nontheless.
Has everyone seen this video from Moscow?
That's 1 weird video. Wonder what would cause it?
If federal agencies hadn't been wasting so much money on worthless studies of what the climate is supposed to be decades from now. Computers cannot achieve 100% accuracy predicting tomorrow's weather. Predictions for a month or two in advance is very hit and miss.

Politicians are not the brightest people. Claims that climate is so simple that one only needs to know the amount of CO2 in the air may cause some members of Congress to feel that they don't need to spend much on equipment that actually provides data for day to day use. Others may decide that weather prediction is a lot of nonsense just like climate prediction.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
444 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

WAZ001-503>519-130000-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
444 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
WEEK..

COLUMBUS DAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE RECENT COOL AND DRY
SPELL TO AN ACTIVE...WET PATTERN. LOOK FOR A SERIES OF PACIFIC
STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. CHILLY..
EAST WINDS IN THE CASCADE PASSES WILL MEAN THAT THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.

UNSETTLED...WET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

MONITOR FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE FOR
UPDATES ON THESE UPCOMING EVENTS.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV
leftovers forecast this yr have been terrible could not figure it out. use to be okay. anyway after a scheduled visit to a forecasting doctor (no insurance paid cash) saturday leftovoers is back. nothing like a magnifying glass. have a good day everyone
791. IKE
Houston,TX. discussion...

"MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MS VALLEY LATE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A STRONG
CONTINENTAL TYPE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS SE TX LATE THURSDAY.
FRONT COULD ENTER OUR NRN ZONES THU AFTN BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL
GET VERY WARM. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (CAPES >3000 J/KG)...HOWEVER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS (PWS 1.5-1.8 INCHES). WILL MAINTAIN 30
POPS AREA WIDE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD
CLEAR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THU EVENING AND COASTAL SECTIONS BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GREAT
WEEKEND COMING UP WITH SUNSHINE...COOL TEMPS...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX SATURDAY.
COULD SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
SUNDAY MORNING."



Inland Florida panhandle forecast for next weekend...

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 74.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of light rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 48.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 74.

g'morning Ike, was just thinking of you. You said yesterday, "yes it will get cooler in NE florida"

our local NWS has been SO WRONG with the predicted temps. Last three days, they were too low by at least 3-5 degrees. Even today they are saying a high of 86 but it's ALREADY 81!!

still hoping here for someone to turn off the oven.
793. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning Ike, was just thinking of you. You said yesterday, "yes it will get cooler in NE florida"

our local NWS has been SO WRONG with the predicted temps. Last three days, they were too low by at least 3-5 degrees. Even today they are saying a high of 86 but it's ALREADY 81!!

still hoping here for someone to turn off the oven.


Jacksonville,FL. forecast....

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 71.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has everyone seen this video from Moscow?
That's 1 weird video. Wonder what would cause it?
That is freaky-deaky. It does look like some kind of cloud formation, though what could cause it to glow like that is beyond me....
Morning, everybody. Things look really quiet in the ATL....
Henri remnants flaring up near Jamaica.

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA Storm Track:
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning Ike, was just thinking of you. You said yesterday, "yes it will get cooler in NE florida"

our local NWS has been SO WRONG with the predicted temps. Last three days, they were too low by at least 3-5 degrees. Even today they are saying a high of 86 but it's ALREADY 81!!

still hoping here for someone to turn off the oven.
It was like that here all week also. We usually still get the daytime highs in OCT, but normally we start to cool off at night. Average low this week has been 80 degrees.... sheesh.

Maybe Ike is right on the cool-off for u guys. Unfortunately, doesn't look like it will reach very far south....
Quoting KoritheMan:


To this day, I am still puzzled as to why Juan wasn't retired.


Its was eventually but in 2003.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Significant fall system to impact West Coast


Thanks for the update
guess I'll believe it when the the asphalt hardens back up.
802. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
guess I'll believe it when the the asphalt hardens back up.


LOL...It's gonna happen. All of the models show it...

6Z GFS at 120 hours...Saturday morning...front is into central-Florida...

Ike are ya teasing me?

cooler weather AND rain?

That's no way to trick someone on a monday morning!

I'll believe the WRF come thursday...maybe...

Ya'll have a good monday!
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W CONTINUING
ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W
OF 40W ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W WHICH HAS STALLED THE EASTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 50W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH...
REMNANTS OF HENRI...IS THE FAR SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.

Looks like the moisture near Jamaica is coming from the Twave. TAFB has ex-Henri analysed in the SE Bahamas, much further north...
805. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Ike are ya teasing me?

cooler weather AND rain?

That's no way to trick someone on a monday morning!

I'll believe the WRF come thursday...maybe...

Ya'll have a good monday!


Have a nice Monday....isn't today a holiday....Columbus Day....no mail...banks closed...that check I gave Wal-Mart over the weekend can't bounce today.
morn Ike.
807. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
morn Ike.


Good morning.

Bastardi have anything to talk about tropically?
aint looked..
JB's Current

SUNDAY 10 PM

BAD CALL.

30 IN Denver at game time, and they are playing. That is absurd. its baseball, no matter who wins its demeaning the game and how it should be played. Its not the early part of the season and meaningless games, this is for all the marbles now and teams should be given the best chance to play in weather where they can showcase the skills that got them there.

This is only my opinion and does not reflect the opinion of people I work with, many who are Phillie fanatics as I am. But being old (54) and having grown up loving baseball, I feel that playing games in weather this cold when so much is on the line is absurd

In my opinion its worse than the call on the foul in the Yankees Twins game the other night. at least that was not premeditated.

Its not the world I grew up in. Storms get named that wouldnt have and I dont think if it were 30 in NYC this game would be getting played this year.... and certainly not when I was a kid.

Temps tomorrow will be in the 50s in Denver, near 60 Tuesday. Given that knowledge, playing tonight to me is wrong

ciao for now *****
810. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
aint looked..


Looks like another quiet week....7 left.


Quoting BahaHurican:
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W CONTINUING
ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W
OF 40W ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W WHICH HAS STALLED THE EASTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 50W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH...
REMNANTS OF HENRI...IS THE FAR SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.

Looks like the moisture near Jamaica is coming from the Twave. TAFB has ex-Henri analysed in the SE Bahamas, much further north...


Looks like he went into hiding.
Quoting IKE:


Have a nice Monday....isn't today a holiday....Columbus Day....no mail...banks closed...that check I gave Wal-Mart over the weekend can't bounce today.
Hmmm... didn't realize pple in the US got this day off as a holiday... just thought it was "observed"...
He likes to rant. This time baseball.
He's like the Glen Beck of weather.
814. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB's Current

SUNDAY 10 PM

BAD CALL.

30 IN Denver at game time, and they are playing. That is absurd. its baseball, no matter who wins its demeaning the game and how it should be played. Its not the early part of the season and meaningless games, this is for all the marbles now and teams should be given the best chance to play in weather where they can showcase the skills that got them there.

This is only my opinion and does not reflect the opinion of people I work with, many who are Phillie fanatics as I am. But being old (54) and having grown up loving baseball, I feel that playing games in weather this cold when so much is on the line is absurd

In my opinion its worse than the call on the foul in the Yankees Twins game the other night. at least that was not premeditated.

Its not the world I grew up in. Storms get named that wouldnt have and I dont think if it were 30 in NYC this game would be getting played this year.... and certainly not when I was a kid.

Temps tomorrow will be in the 50s in Denver, near 60 Tuesday. Given that knowledge, playing tonight to me is wrong

ciao for now *****


I guess the tropics are slow....Joe? he-he.

MLB season is too long. 162 games. It should be cut back to about 125-130. Then have the best 4 out of 7 in the first round of the playoffs and not a 3 of 5 series after playing 162 games?

Plus it's unfair that there's no salary cap. Yankees buy the best players and win every decade.

Get ready for cold weather at Yankee stadium. NY and Anaheim start Friday IN the bronx....

Friday
Cloudy. Rain likely...mainly in the morning. Breezy with highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
815. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... didn't realize pple in the US got this day off as a holiday... just thought it was "observed"...


Nah...everything closed. Another Government holiday. They may cut back to 4 day mail delivery soon anyway.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... didn't realize pple in the US got this day off as a holiday... just thought it was "observed"...



My kid has school today. I think.
817. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



My kid has school today. I think.


I should correct myself...everything not closed. Government is closed.
The 00Z Euro indicates that a large trough will dig into the East-Central US later this week causing a strong cold front to penetrate all the way into the Gulf of Mexico Friday allowing lots of Cool and Dry air to advect into the deep south for the weekend.

Photobucket
Where are you. Defuniak?
The 00Z Euro indicates that a large trough will dig into the East-Central US later this week causing a strong cold front to penetrate all the way into the Gulf of Mexico Friday allowing lots of Cool and Dry air to advect into the deep south for the weekend


Sounds Great! Bring it on!
821. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Where are you. Defuniak?


Yes.

"""Friday Night
Cooler. Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of light rain. Lows around 49.

Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.

Saturday Night
Clear. Lows around 47."""............


I'll be burning leaves soon. Suppose to be windy behind the front...
Were you there for the March 93 Storm?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The 00Z Euro indicates that a large trough will dig into the East-Central US later this week causing a strong cold front to penetrate all the way into the Gulf of Mexico Friday allowing lots of Cool and Dry air to advect into the deep south for the weekend


Sounds Great! Bring it on!


I'm so ready for it. I am sick of this Hot and Humid Weather in New Orleans. If the models are correct the Northern Gulf Coast should easily fall into the 50's both Friday and Saturday Night.
824. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Were you there for the March 93 Storm?


Yes.
825. IKE
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I'm so ready for it. I am sick if this Hot and Humid Weather in New Orleans. If the models are correct the Northern Gulf Coast should easily fall into the 50's both Friday and Saturday Night.


826. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Were you there for the March 93 Storm?


We had a few inches of snow off of it.
We had a little mini-blizzard here for about and hour or so. But it was melting as it landed. Wind was blowing 30 and gusting to 50 or so and heavy snow.. It was about 2 am or so when it changed over to snow. So not many too many people even noticed it as it was mostly gone by sunup.
828. IKE
That may have been the last snow event we've had here....16 years ago.
Quoting IKE:
That may have been the last snow event we've had here....16 years ago.


I know how you feel Ike, Before it snowed in 2004 in New Orleans it we hadn't had 1 measurable snow for over 15 years(1989). Don't worry Ike it will eventually snow there again.
MDR looks beautiful this morning, like sailing weather...
831. Boca
Re QuickScat: If it helps so much of the world and shipping why don't they contribute some $$ to a new one?

Maybe they do already but I can't find that info.



Good morning. Haven't been on for a couple of weeks...work got busier and I got to reading Doris Goodwin's "Team of Rivals". Good book.
Looks like we're finally going to get some relief. NWS forecast for Lantana:

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 82.

833. IKE
What drought?


If Ike's still around he'll undoubtedly groan, but I found this rather surprising article on Fox News yesterday:

Graham Backs Push for Climate Change Legislation
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., co-authors an op-ed with Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in The New York Times calling for action on climate change legislation.

FOXNews.com
Sunday, October 11, 2009
A top Senate Republican on Sunday announced his support for sweeping climate change legislation, disputing the "conventional wisdom" that says Congress simply cannot tackle the issue this year.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., co-authored an op-ed with Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in The New York Times calling for action on legislation.

Kerry rolled out a Senate climate change bill alongside Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., late last month. A Graham aide said Sunday that the South Carolina Republican was not explicitly endorsing that bill, but stands ready to work with Kerry toward some version of legislation to combat global warming.

(1st 3 paragraphs; for rest of story, click on link above).
834. why would that be surprising? it's Lindsey Grahamnesty :)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



My kid has school today. I think.


Good morning all, kids in school down here (Broward county FL) also......just a banking and gov't holiday.
Uh, I dunno. I thought Sen. Graham was among the ney sayers on CC. As far as my general opinion of him, sometimes I like what he says, other times, not so much...
Quoting IKE:


I should correct myself...everything not closed. Government is closed.
Here everything is closed - full day off. Usually considered the last "official" beach day for locals - after that it's too cold in the water for most of us.... lol

That's why I'm still around instead of at work.
837. nope, he's always been a bit wobbly on that subject....

by the way, the first time i saw your screen name i thought it was miLkatnight...i wondered what a reptile had to do with milk...LOL :0
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Good morning all, kids in school down here (Broward county FL) also......just a banking and gov't holiday.


Kids here are off for the whole week (Millen Georgia)
post removed by me

New Blog
841. I have no idea. It seems that LG'nesty goes with what he thinks is most popular, not what's necessarily best for the country.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
837. nope, he's always been a bit wobbly on that subject....

by the way, the first time i saw your screen name i thought it was miLkatnight...i wondered what a reptile had to do with milk...LOL :0


I've had that handle since my first email account. My name's Mike, I was trying to make a play on Nickleodian's "Nick at Night". Probably a bad choice as almost no one ever gets it, and I get called everything from Mic to mica...
Heres JB this a.m.


MONDAY 7 AM
YAH, BUT I DON'T LIKE IT - 1983 NCAA heavyweight champ Lou Banach to Dan Gable after he beat NC state FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY pound heavyweight Tab Thacker in the semifinals of the nationals.

I have only seen Dan Gable "coach" a wrestler to keep it close twice, and this was one of them. Banach, who I got to know when he was an assistant coach at PSU (the guys that had to wrestle him would have a day off the day of the meet compared to tangling with him) and was 215 lb machine... less than half the weight of the NC state giant. Gable wanted Lou to wrestle a much more controlled match rather than the terminator search and destroy heavyweight he was... The strategy of course was to avoid getting caught underneath. Lou won, and as Gable was congratulating him, his were, "yah, but I don't like it (the conditions for his victory)."

Well I see the Phils won last night... I didnt stay up for it, but I dont like it. I think it was absurd to play a baseball game with temps in the 20s. Its in the 20s for both teams,fine, but if you put two swimmers in a pool to race and their happens to be hungry sharks in it, does that make it "fair" to both swimmers.

So yes, but I dont like it.

By the way. with Cael Sanderson, 159-0 and a gold medalist in the Olympics, and Lou a gold medalist also. I cant help but wondering who would have won that match in their prime.

We have some real weather to wrestle with this week. The arctic agenda is pressing its cause across the north and the ideas expressed yesterday still hold sway. The threat of a major early season snow event from the central plains to the interior northeast is on the table. A no school Friday watch is now in effect... change that to a warning, for some reason, my kids dont have school Friday... Its amazing how that works, out of the clear blue sky there is no school ( a workshop or something) In this case, it may be indefinite ceiling 300 sky obscured.

I do have to thank Major league baseball for this... It is not officially the coldest game every played ( actual air temperature was in the 20s) So in this day of global warming, we have yet another cold benchmark to look at.

Baseball is a victim, of how do they say it now... oh yah, climate change.

By the way. wait till you see the post I am going to unleash later this week on how this winter could cost alot of people their seats in the next election.... I have it ready, I am just wondering if I should push the post button after I cut and paste..... I think I will wait for Friday when our winter idea is out in public ( hint it hasnt changed much from July, and since I have figured out what happened in 51-52 i will discuss more the variances available this winter rather than any big change... so you know the nuts and bolts) Besides, Friday happy hour will mellow some people out so when I play the linkage card, they dont get so upset.

Okay I will give you a hint.... South carolina has a senator that seems to want to vote for cap and trade... bad place to do it in given this winters look. People in Massachusetts are more apt to put up with their winters, but in S carolina a couple of snows and a cold winter, and they are not going to want to hear it. Again, its for later.

I have given up on California.. no matter what the weather... it doesnt matter..

Notes and asides: We have homecoming this week which means the average age of drunks roaming the streets here on a football weekend is up a few years. It really is amazing to see the college population in action here, after all we are the number one party school in the nation ( how about that). In any case a classic exchange took place at the PSU post game press conference with a reporter and Joe Paterno: Reporter: Coach, can you give us your feelings about homecoming Joepa: Why, is it homecoming soon ( laughter in the background) Reporter: Yes it is, next week Joepa: Well all I was looking at was Minnesota for next week, what was today, Going away day.

I love the guy.. All he cares about is football and he is sharper than I have ever heard him.

But I have a feeling about homecoming. The drunks better have hot cider and spiked chocolate ready.

Heh I just thought of something... it might snow for the homecoming parade here... another climate change first!

Double note and aside. I am resisting the irony of the Al Gore Appearance in Wisconsin this weekend ( and his failure to confront a direct question about the inconsitancies in his movie) and how darn cold it was in Madison. One can only wonder if this streak of hints from mother nature can continue all the way into Copenhagen ( or is it Skoal).. that would be something.

He should just get out and debate Chris Monckton and we can clear it all up... I think Chris is number one in line

I mean how many times can these high profile events be met with temps well below normal.

By the way, I point these things out because I want to make sure readers are aware the weather is no more extreme, no different within ITS NATURAL VARIANCE than it ever has been. So that is why these pot shots come and references, and hopefully, the age of vodoo model worship with come to an end over the next 10-20 years and we will all have our answer. Until then, you got to admit, a situation like this in Wisconsin with the most visible spokesman revealed two things 1) It tends to be colder than normal at sights when he shows up and 2) Ge refuses to confront direct questions on the inconsistencies in the movie that won an academy award, and a Nobel prize. I have no direct feeling on the Nobel prise that was just handed to the president, for while I understand the chagrin there of many, I see what the idea behind it was. However the Nobel prize that was awarded for the whole climate change issue to me is far more of a prostitution of that prize, unless of course it is now different from what it is supposed to be. And the weather will be the ultimate judge of that, if freedom is allowed to prevail.

So let me clear, this is non comment on Pres Obama's, but it is a comment on the nobel awarded for the weather related issue.



brrrr for now *****
846. P451
NEW BLOG








NEW BLOG








NEW BLOG
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Heres JB this a.m.


MONDAY 7 AM
YAH, BUT I DON'T LIKE IT - 1983 NCAA heavyweight champ Lou Banach to Dan Gable after he beat NC state FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY pound heavyweight Tab Thacker in the semifinals of the nationals.

I have only seen Dan Gable "coach" a wrestler to keep it close twice, and this was one of them. Banach, who I got to know when he was an assistant coach at PSU (the guys that had to wrestle him would have a day off the day of the meet compared to tangling with him) and was 215 lb machine... less than half the weight of the NC state giant. Gable wanted Lou to wrestle a much more controlled match rather than the terminator search and destroy heavyweight he was... The strategy of course was to avoid getting caught underneath. Lou won, and as Gable was congratulating him, his were, "yah, but I don't like it (the conditions for his victory)."

Well I see the Phils won last night... I didnt stay up for it, but I dont like it. I think it was absurd to play a baseball game with temps in the 20s. Its in the 20s for both teams,fine, but if you put two swimmers in a pool to race and their happens to be hungry sharks in it, does that make it "fair" to both swimmers.

So yes, but I dont like it.

By the way. with Cael Sanderson, 159-0 and a gold medalist in the Olympics, and Lou a gold medalist also. I cant help but wondering who would have won that match in their prime.

We have some real weather to wrestle with this week. The arctic agenda is pressing its cause across the north and the ideas expressed yesterday still hold sway. The threat of a major early season snow event from the central plains to the interior northeast is on the table. A no school Friday watch is now in effect... change that to a warning, for some reason, my kids dont have school Friday... Its amazing how that works, out of the clear blue sky there is no school ( a workshop or something) In this case, it may be indefinite ceiling 300 sky obscured.

I do have to thank Major league baseball for this... It is not officially the coldest game every played ( actual air temperature was in the 20s) So in this day of global warming, we have yet another cold benchmark to look at.

Baseball is a victim, of how do they say it now... oh yah, climate change.

By the way. wait till you see the post I am going to unleash later this week on how this winter could cost alot of people their seats in the next election.... I have it ready, I am just wondering if I should push the post button after I cut and paste..... I think I will wait for Friday when our winter idea is out in public ( hint it hasnt changed much from July, and since I have figured out what happened in 51-52 i will discuss more the variances available this winter rather than any big change... so you know the nuts and bolts) Besides, Friday happy hour will mellow some people out so when I play the linkage card, they dont get so upset.

Okay I will give you a hint.... South carolina has a senator that seems to want to vote for cap and trade... bad place to do it in given this winters look. People in Massachusetts are more apt to put up with their winters, but in S carolina a couple of snows and a cold winter, and they are not going to want to hear it. Again, its for later.

I have given up on California.. no matter what the weather... it doesnt matter..

Notes and asides: We have homecoming this week which means the average age of drunks roaming the streets here on a football weekend is up a few years. It really is amazing to see the college population in action here, after all we are the number one party school in the nation ( how about that). In any case a classic exchange took place at the PSU post game press conference with a reporter and Joe Paterno: Reporter: Coach, can you give us your feelings about homecoming Joepa: Why, is it homecoming soon ( laughter in the background) Reporter: Yes it is, next week Joepa: Well all I was looking at was Minnesota for next week, what was today, Going away day.

I love the guy.. All he cares about is football and he is sharper than I have ever heard him.

But I have a feeling about homecoming. The drunks better have hot cider and spiked chocolate ready.

Heh I just thought of something... it might snow for the homecoming parade here... another climate change first!

Double note and aside. I am resisting the irony of the Al Gore Appearance in Wisconsin this weekend ( and his failure to confront a direct question about the inconsitancies in his movie) and how darn cold it was in Madison. One can only wonder if this streak of hints from mother nature can continue all the way into Copenhagen ( or is it Skoal).. that would be something.

He should just get out and debate Chris Monckton and we can clear it all up... I think Chris is number one in line

I mean how many times can these high profile events be met with temps well below normal.

By the way, I point these things out because I want to make sure readers are aware the weather is no more extreme, no different within ITS NATURAL VARIANCE than it ever has been. So that is why these pot shots come and references, and hopefully, the age of vodoo model worship with come to an end over the next 10-20 years and we will all have our answer. Until then, you got to admit, a situation like this in Wisconsin with the most visible spokesman revealed two things 1) It tends to be colder than normal at sights when he shows up and 2) Ge refuses to confront direct questions on the inconsistencies in the movie that won an academy award, and a Nobel prize. I have no direct feeling on the Nobel prise that was just handed to the president, for while I understand the chagrin there of many, I see what the idea behind it was. However the Nobel prize that was awarded for the whole climate change issue to me is far more of a prostitution of that prize, unless of course it is now different from what it is supposed to be. And the weather will be the ultimate judge of that, if freedom is allowed to prevail.

So let me clear, this is non comment on Pres Obama's, but it is a comment on the nobel awarded for the weather related issue.



brrrr for now *****


No dis-respect but I pay for accuweather pro to get Batardi's blog etc. That blog and data are not free to the public unless you pay. If you want to post his blog on this forum everyday then do it and I'll cancel my subscription. That will save me some $$. Post it and take your chances. I have no affiliation with Accuweather but I do have a friend who posted some paid for forecasts and they caught up with him. I hope you understand my pint of view.