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QuikSCAT, 1999 - 2009: R.I.P.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on November 24, 2009

The QuikSCAT satellite is no more. The sad new of QuikSCAT's demise came yesterday in a terse message from NASA:

Several hours ago, shortly past 7:00Z today (23Nov), telemetry received from QuikSCAT indicates that the antenna rotation rate has dropped to zero and remains at zero. The motor remains powered. The system can be operated safely in this state for an indefinite period. The QuikSCAT operations team will be meeting later this morning, but in all likelihood this is the end of the nominal mission".

Launched in 1999, the QuikSCAT satellite became one of the most useful and controversial meteorological satellites ever to orbit the Earth. Forecasters world-wide came to rely on QuikSCAT wind data to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. Originally expected to last just 2-3 years, QuikSCAT made it past ten, a testament to the skill of the engineers that designed the satellite. To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.


Figure 1. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.

Alternatives to QuikSCAT
Two valuable alternatives to QuikSCAT are available, but neither can come close to making up for the loss of QuikSCAT. The Windsat instrument aboard the Coriolis satellite (launched in 2003) measures wind speed and wind direction using a different technique. Evaluation of these data at NHC and NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) shown the winds to be unreliable in and around the storm environment. There's also the European ASCAT satellite, launched in 2007. Like QuikSCAT, ASCAT can measure global wind speed and direction twice per day. However, the data is available at 25 km resolution (two times coarser than the 12.5 km QuikSCAT), and ASCAT covers only 60% of the area covered by QuikSCAT in the same time period. QuikSCAT sees a swath of ocean 1800 km wide, while ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. I find it frustrating to use ASCAT to monitor tropical storms, since the passes miss the center of circulation of a storm of interest more than half the time. On the plus side, ASCAT has the advantage that the data is not adversely affected by rain, unlike QuikSCAT.

The need for a new QuikSCAT
NOAA has been pushing for a QuikSCAT replacement for years. Former National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza laudably made a big push in 2007 for a new QuikSCAT satellite. Unfortunately, he made claims about the usefulness of QuikSCAT for improving hurricane track forecasts that were not supported by scientific research, an error that may have ultimately led to his downfall. While there is evidence that QuikSCAT data may improve hurricane track forecasts of some computer models, NHC uses many models to make hurricane track forecasts, and some of these models are not helped by QuikSCAT data. For example, a 2009 model study by Dr. Jim Goerss of the Naval Research Lab found that QuikSCAT winds made no improvement to hurricane track forecasts of the NOGAPS model, one of the key models used by NHC to predict hurricane tracks. QuikSCAT is extremely valuable for many other aspects of hurricane forecasting, though. It provides early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and for defining gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from QuikSCAT is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.

A QuikSCAT replacement
A replacement dual-frequency QuikSCAT satellite that has superior capabilities to old one is being explored by NOAA and NASA, in partnership with the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA). The new QuikSCAT instrument would fly on the Japanese GCOM-Water Cycle satellite, scheduled to launch in January 2016. However, funding must begin in 2010 in order to meet this launch deadline, and no funding for a new QuikSCAT has been put into the Administration's FY 2011 budget. The proposed QuikSCAT replacement would be able to measure winds as high as 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane strength), and have improved ability to measure winds in heavy rain. The new satellite would have a 20% improvement in spatial resolution. The cost would be less than usual, since the rocket and and satellite are already paid for. However, there are additional costs involved in adapting QuikSCAT to the Japanese engineering requirements. The final costs of such a replacement QuikSCAT have not been determined yet, but would probably be several hundred million dollars. According to the Palm Beach Post, in September, U.S. Representative Ron Kline, D-FL, introduced a bill in Congress to fund a new QuikSCAT satellite. Klein introduced a similar bill in 2007, which failed. "Today's news of its failure simply strengthens our commitment to ensure that a next-generation satellite is constructed and launched as quickly as possible", Klein said in a statement made yesterday.

Thanks to all of you who've written your Senators and Representatives. Let's hope that the final failure of QuikSCAT yesterday will finally motivate Congress to fund a replacement satellite.

Rest in Peace, QuikSCAT.

References
2007 NOAA QuikSCAT user impact study:


Figure 2. Surface weather map for the time when the UK's record 24-hour rainfall event occurred, Nov. 19, 2009. A cold front trailing from a powerful low pressure system with a central pressure of 955 mb stalled over the western UK and dumped prodigious amounts of rain. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Heavy rains on tap for hard-hit flooded regions of the UK
Heavy rains of up to four inches are expected today over regions of the UK still recovering from last week's deadly floods. An extremely moist Atlantic frontal system stalled over across Northern Ireland, Cumbria and south-west Scotland last Thursday and Friday, dumping prodigious amounts of rain that triggered severe flooding in Cumbria. Loops of precipitable water reveal that part of this moisture may have come from the Hurricane Ida-enhanced Nor'easter that brought record storm surges to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The 24-hour total at Seathwaite (ending 0045 on Friday 20 November) of 314.4 mm (12.37 inches) is a UK record for a single location in any given 24-hour period, according to the UK Met Office. Records go back to 1914. According to wunderground member "Former Aussie", who has been working at the scene of the disaster, "the centre of the small town of Cockermouth was up to the tops of shop windows in water. Downstream, at Workington, bridges were washed away. Police constable Bill Barker was standing on one, stopping traffic as it fell, and he drowned, but the prompt and in cases heroic action of the emergency services meant no other lives were lost, as far as we know. Cockermouth was the birthplace of the poet William Wordsworth. The house where he was born is still standing, but the contents are said to be seriously damaged. Cumbriafoundation.org is where anyone wanting to help some extremely distressed and hard hit people can go. Some thousands of people will be out of their homes for months, and as it's less that 14 months since some of them were flooded out the last time, some will be suffering uninsurable losses.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

P.S. wunderblogger Patrap attended yesterday's Cuban-American Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, and has posted a nice blog on the affair.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I pray for a geostationary Atlantic basin quickscat replacement satellite.


Meanhwhile, a neat little vorticy off of SE Mass.



Remnants of Ida'Easter still churning in the East Atlantic. Approx 32.5N, 42W. Models hint at heading to the Canary Islands.

NOAA 17 Image, off the canary islands weather website.



Link


Good Morning. The remnants of Ida continue to push along into the East Atlantic. Around 32.5N and 42W.

RAMSDIS continues a floater on the system.

RAMSDIS Loop:



24Hour Loop:



The window of opportunity for any tropical re-development has passed. Yesterday morning the system looked very well organized but has since been hit with higher shear and will remain extra-tropical in nature as it brushes the Azores and possibly curves back ESE to take on the Canary Islands before possibly landfalling near Morocco. Keep in mind we first started watching an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean on October 31st!

My blogs on continued tracking of Ida's remnants.

Tracking Ida's Remnants

Tracking Ida's Birth and Landfall


As to the upcoming winter a very good discussion from Mount Holly, NJ.

Posted in last blog. Long read, didn't want to re-spam it. So go read it here if you'd like. It's a good read. Link
ASCAT now has an operational 12.5 km product viewer but all of the other deficencies relative to QuikScat noted by Dr. Masters still exist.
Dr. Masters.... any comment around the growing scandal around data manipulation around global warming?
Thanks for bringing us up todate on Quickscat. 451 Don't you think the distance of a geostationary type quickscat would be to far away to get good data? 22000 miles vs 500 miles.
P451, that post wasn't Spam! (lol, some self-interest here...the prognostication was all over the place, though, wasn't it?)

Dr. Masters, thank you for the paragraph about flooding in the UK. TWC had some video about the damages there this morning; shocking, no matter how many times you've seen flood disasters. Good luck and Godspeed FormerAussie and all those in the area.

Looks like there might be some help for those who've experienced BC flooding:

B.C. will help flood victims
Government funds will go to help those with damaged homes
Canwest News ServiceNovember 24, 2009
Link
To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.

Nothing wrong with that doc. Hard to believe a replacement is years away, if then. What a shame.
Quoting Catfish57:
Dr. Masters.... any comment around the growing scandal around data manipulation around global warming?


He seems to have very obviously "forgotten" to include any comments about the now exposed junk science of global warming...
Regarding #10. Meant to say the now exposed junk science of "man made" global warming.
From Dr. Master's last blog:

I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.
Quoting weatherneophyte:


He seems to have very obviously "forgotten" to include any comments about the now exposed junk science of global warming...

story
...and yep, Masters said he has a post in the works on the subject.
To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.

That's okay. I remember tearing up the first time I saw Spock die in Star Trek II.
Quoting weatherneophyte:
Regarding #10. Meant to say the now exposed junk science of "man made" global warming.


The RealClimate website, a forum for climate change scientists, disputed skeptics' claims that the emails showed any attempt to manipulate results. "More interesting is what is not contained in the emails," the site noted. "There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to ‘get rid of the MWP’ [Medieval Warm Period], no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no ‘marching orders’ from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords."

..but I can't wait for someone to hack the emails of the land development multi-national I work for. Then you'll see some bad ethics! (ha!)
Quoting tornadofan:
To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.

That's okay. I remember tearing up the first time I saw Spock die in Star Trek II.


Am I the only one who thought the name of the satellite was a bit naughty? ...I hope not.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?




If it is true, (I believe that it is,) then they ought to be brought up criminal charges.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting Orcasystems:
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?




If it is true, (I believe that it is,) then they ought to be brought up criminal charges.


Hacked climate e-mails awkward, not game changer

It doesn't sound like anthropogenic global warming is in a coffin - or that the emails are a nail in said metaphor. Or is the evidence just not online? Please share or link or something.. thanks.






Water from a swollen Wakulla River surrounds a canoe and kayak rental shop called T-n-T Hide-A-Way.


Alligator point





Tropical Storm Ida Event Summary
No big secret that McIntyre wants the data to discredit CRU and cast some doubt on the science of climate change. He is by most accounts an amateur. An economist.

He had some success in the past by discovering a small discontinuity in some U.S. records in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) dataset starting in January 2000. He emailed GISS advising them of the problem and within a couple of days GISS issued a new, corrected set of data and "thank[ed] Stephen McIntyre for bringing to our attention that such an adjustment is necessary to prevent creating an artificial jump in year 2000".[10] The adjustment caused the average temperatures for the continental United States to be reduced about 0.15 °C during the years 2000-2006. Changes in other portions of the record did not exceed 0.03 °C; it made no discernible difference to the global mean anomalies.
Link

He has also raised a ruckus over the "hockey stick", and objected to the practice of adding intrument records to the end of proxy-data (tree-rings, glacial retreat, historical records, etc) used to reconstruct past climate. Resulting in an abrupt rise in temps in the last 10 years or so.

Let him have his fun. Give him the data. He filed a "freedom of information" request from a publicly funded research center (some of this funding from US tax dollars (CRU) and was denied.

Any of this data or methodology he finds to be incorrect or misleading can be published in a peer-reviewed paper and will be judged accordingly.

The stonewalling from the CRU and possible deletion of data does not help the cause of believers. And it does not make the skeptics any less skeptical.

Dr. Masters, you are in part to blame for no longer having a replacement. You stated several times in the past losing QuikSCAT would only have minor implications. And you've now been on this crusade to save it?

Perhaps if the weather community would be more negotiable instead of rambling back and forth we wouldn't have to wait 5+ years for a replacement.

Or, perhaps it just isn't that vital.
Quoting Brunski:


Hacked climate e-mails awkward, not game changer

It doesn't sound like anthropogenic global warming is in a coffin - or that the emails are a nail in said metaphor. Or is the evidence just not online? Please share or link or something.. thanks.



From the article

But others say the damage may be limited as the evidence is still overwhelming that a buildup of greenhouse gases is melting snow on mountain tops and shrinking global ice caps.


It's visible, man-made or not. Now the question remains, what happens when the ice is gone?
Excerpted from Beell

Any of this data or methodology he finds to be incorrect or misleading can be published in a peer-reviewed paper and will be judged accordingly

This from James Delingpole's article regarding peer-review

And, perhaps most reprehensibly, a long series of communications discussing how best to squeeze dissenting scientists out of the peer review process. How, in other words, to create a scientific climate in which anyone who disagrees with AGW can be written off as a crank, whose views do not have a scrap of authority


And the email regarding it.

“This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the “peer-reviewed literature”. Obviously, they found a solution to that–take over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering “Climate Research” as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…What do others think?”

“I will be emailing the journal to tell them I’m having nothing more to do with it until they rid themselves of this troublesome editor.”“It results from this journal having a number of editors. The responsible one for this is a well-known skeptic in NZ. He has let a few papers through by Michaels and Gray in the past. I’ve had words with Hans von Storch about this, but got nowhere. Another thing to discuss in Nice !”
Earth did get warmer. Its gotten warmer before too.
Is it manmade is the question.
26. IKE
Significant storm,severe(?),winter weather(?), in 144 hours on the 12Z GFS....

thanks for update doc maybe we could get a quickscat faster if all the countries in atlantic basin contributed to one after all its a benefit to the entire basin imo hell i would even contribute myself if such a thing could be possible 5 yrs is a long time with no data next season should be interesting without it
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Earth did get warmer. Its gotten warmer before too.
Is it manmade is the question.



Why can't we just commit to reducing our negative impacts on the climate by as much as possible every year? Regardless who or what the cause is.

At the end of the day, if it turns out the AGW theory was just that, a theory, at least we would be living in a much cleaner & healthier environment.

And if it turns out that AGW was in fact the cause, we can rest assured that we did everything possible to prevent it.

The bickering, IMO, is a waste of precious time and energy.


The reduction of greenhouse emissions will have far reaching effects, beyond just climate. Healthier people breathing cleaner air = reduced health care costs and a better quality of life.

Why would anyone not want to strive towards that goal??
Quoting IKE:
To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.

Nothing wrong with that doc. Hard to believe a replacement is years away, if then. What a shame.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks for update doc maybe we could get a quickscat faster if all the countries in atlantic basin contributed to one after all its a benefit to the entire basin imo hell i would even contribute myself if such a thing could be possible 5 yrs is a long time with no data next season should be interesting without it


Always did wonder about the name - SCAT is Bat Poop isn't it.....
WHEN WE GET A NEW ONE (I like to think positively) I do hope She gets a nicer name

next year should be interesting... "the blind leading the blind perhaps...."

back to work-lurk
News is not even covering climate gate.The lie will live forever.That is the way people want it.All power to the government.Soon you will all believe in man made global warming or your life will be at risk.Eco terriosm is growing rapidly.People who have opposite opinion will be sileneced.Just like this board.I get banned for my opinion but others who believe the lie can go on posting.Only in cuba oh i meant america.
oh well,

GOOOOOOD MORNING, COPENHAGEN!

Quoting help4u:
News is not even covering climate gate.The lie will live forever.That is the way people want it.All power to the government.Soon you will all believe in man made global warming or your life will be at risk.Eco terriosm is growing rapidly.People who have opposite opinion will be sileneced.Just like this board.I get banned for my opinion but others who believe the lie can go on posting.Only in cuba oh i meant america.



Climate Change was a major part of the Presidents agenda and for what he forged his campaign.
Quoting IKE:
Significant storm,severe(?),winter weather(?), in 144 hours on the 12Z GFS....


A very big storm next week IKE. I think Florida is in for a very nasty severe weather outbreak on Monday or Tuesday. We could be looking at the biggest tornado outbreak since spring (dozens maybe). If models verify the wind patterns from the surface to aloft will be in a prime setup. The GFS is indicating there could be snow flurries all the way to Pensacola on Tuesday!! INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:

A very big storm next week IKE. I think Florida is in for a very nasty severe weather outbreak on Monday or Tuesday. We could be looking at the biggest tornado outbreak since spring (dozens maybe). If models verify the wind patterns from the surface to aloft will be in a prime setup. The GFS is indicating there could be snow flurries all the way to Pensacola on Tuesday!! INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!!!


Seems we'll be entering a rainy period beginning tomorrow.
Looking at buoy and satellite seems to be circulation starting in western gulf although no big pressure drop yet. I think Fl. may get a little blast this Thurs. or Friday.
Quoting help4u:
News is not even covering climate gate.The lie will live forever.That is the way people want it.All power to the government.Soon you will all believe in man made global warming or your life will be at risk.Eco terriosm is growing rapidly.People who have opposite opinion will be sileneced.Just like this board.I get banned for my opinion but others who believe the lie can go on posting.Only in cuba oh i meant america.


Does the term "soylent green" mean anything to you?
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking at buoy and satellite seems to be circulation starting in western gulf although no big pressure drop yet. I think Fl. may get a little blast this Friday.



Seems the models are getting a little more exited over the area in the near term.
37. We have to eat.....Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
thank you #28! that is an intelligent point that gets muted from both sides of the argument. Let's not forget that while we produce and study data, position arguments, and tear at each others beliefs in an impractical attempt to get a voice or opinion heard, the earth spins on as a cycling system that feeds back input. So how is it any measure of controversy to make improvements and efforts in the direction of a healthier planet by means of pollution control, i.e. better system input? Nothing is going to put the earth on hold while we figure out who's to blame for what IS a warming episode. Every effort should be made, ethically and legally, to establish better production and consumption practices that promote a sustainable environment, always, period. This is just good stewardship, intelligence, and wisdom. Anything else is just plain greed and stupidity. This goes to the arguers, both sides!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Seems the models are getting a little more exited over the area in the near term.


The national weather service in Melbourne seems to be indicating that a small chance of tornadoes could be possible on Tomorrow in South and Central Florida out ahead of this low pressure as it comes across the area tomorrow aft.
Interesting

Quoting IKE:
To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.

Nothing wrong with that doc. Hard to believe a replacement is years away, if then. What a shame.


It's the shortsightedness of governments...they'd rather spend time and money listening to our every phonecall, txt mssage and email rather than spend a tenth of that amount on a technology that might save lives. Doesn't anyone grow weary of this nonsense?
There seems to be a gap comming up in manned space flight too.
Awesome interactive summary of the Augustine report.


http://www.launchcomplexmodels.com/Direct/media/flash/ag_options/index.html
#40 your welcome. Simple logic should be the starting point and a point to return when things get out of hand.
Floodman I know you are considered an intelligent poster with good cause. Did you read the MIT discovery about photovoltaic/hydrolysis method to generate hydrogen. May make all this GW discussion go away, posted article yesterday never heard a comment from anyone. I suppose most just love to argue.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" continues to move Eastward slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
===============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.2ºN 126.1ºE or 75 kms northeast of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Leyte
2.Southern Leyte
3.Biliran
4.Eastern Samar
5.Western Samar

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Surigao del Norte
2.Surigao del Sur
3.Agusan del Norte
4.Dinagat Island
5.Siargao Island

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
FLOOD!! AKA JERRY!!! (Where's NRAAmy -- let's celebrate the return of...!!)

I've been holding my breath (less global warming)...

How the heck are you? And the Mrs.?
I take it LongStrangeTrip is an understatement?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
21:00 PM JST November 24 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nida (985 hPa) located at 9.2N 145.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knot with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southern quardrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 11.6N 142.9E - 65 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 14.7N 140.7E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.1N 139.3E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The bickering, IMO, is a waste of precious time and energy.

Getting a second job so that my kids can enjoy quality and diversity of foods they enjoy today would be a waste of precious time and energy. As would be waiting in line at Walmart, chosen by those that are cheap and those that must buy the least expensive, regardless of quality.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Healthier people breathing cleaner air = reduced health care costs and a better quality of life.

Why would anyone not want to strive towards that goal??

But what about people that bypass the doctor altogether for years because they are on the razor's edge, barely getting by, and cannot afford a copay? How does optionally increasing energy costs improve their quality of life? There is more to quality of life than health care and a false sense of accomplishment that will come with you or I reducing our CO2 emissions to the level of 1985.

Why would anyone not strive for that? I would think that is rather obvious.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHT
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
16:00 PM Réunion November 24 2009
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1005 hPa) located at 10.9S 52.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving south at 5 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 51.0E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.1S 49.5E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.3S 46.2E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.1S 43.4E - 20 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
The last animated satellite picture depict a fluctuating convection in the vicinity of the low level circulation center. The system has tracked southward within the last few hours. Environmental condition are poor for a re-intensification. Actually, if upper condition are good, lower level convergence is expected to weaken during the next 48 hours, the system will be northwest of Madagascar. A poor monsoon inflow should temporarily be better between the next 24-48 hours, in phase with an upper level outflow southward. The system is expected to move on the western edge of a weak low tropospheric ridge and track west southwestward within the next three days
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 24NOV)
================================================
An area of convection (95B) located at 5.4N 92.4E or 170 NM west of northern tip of Sumatra. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates deep convection flaring to the west of a partially exposed low level circulation center. A 1354z TRMM 37V Microwave image shows weak banding with slight curvature to the west-northwest of the low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates that the low level circulation center is located in an unfavorable region for development south of the ridge axis with diffluent easterly flow. CIMSS low level vorticity indicates a weak elongated vorticity pattern.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a mimimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Weather Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 24 2009
===============================

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea persists
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Re-issued)
==============================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 6.1N 106.8E or 280 NM south of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a broad region of deep convection ramins persistent on the western half of an elongated low level circulation center. A recent WINDSAT Pass showed two regions of strong convergence on the northwest and southwest quadrant near the low level circulation center. However, winds near the center were rain contaminated but predominantly showed 20 knots. A 0626z AMSR-E Microwave image also indicated significant deep convection along the northwestern quadrant, but did not show a well organized low level circulation center. Upper level analysis support further development with good poleward outflow around and upper level subtropical ridge located to the northeast of the low level circulation center. With a favorable upper level environment the disturbance remains GOOD for developing into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours
Geez, Hades, what did you do with Floodman?
Drown him with actual storm info?
Floodman, it is good to have you back brother, I hope everything heals quickly.
Still going to have to give the geckos a drink with eyedroppers, Grothar?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Still going to have to give the geckos a drink with eyedroppers, Grothar?


Nothing get by you, does it, Awake?
Quoting Jeff9641:

A very big storm next week IKE. I think Florida is in for a very nasty severe weather outbreak on Monday or Tuesday. We could be looking at the biggest tornado outbreak since spring (dozens maybe). If models verify the wind patterns from the surface to aloft will be in a prime setup. The GFS is indicating there could be snow flurries all the way to Pensacola on Tuesday!! INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!!!

SNOW in Florida? cool!
Quoting gordydunnot:
Floodman I know you are considered an intelligent poster with good cause. Did you read the MIT discovery about photovoltaic/hydrolysis method to generate hydrogen. May make all this GW discussion go away, posted article yesterday never heard a comment from anyone. I suppose most just love to argue.


I did read the article. It was interesting to use any power source,(wind, solar,or what ever and using the excess power to make the H2 and O2 for the fuel cell. Sounds almost like a perpetual electrical source
Quoting Floodman:


It's the shortsightedness of governments...they'd rather spend time and money listening to our every phonecall, txt mssage and email rather than spend a tenth of that amount on a technology that might save lives. Doesn't anyone grow weary of this nonsense?


Shortsightedness?I believe the government could be legally declared blind.
By the way how are you?Hope the pain after surgery is bearable.
Quoting pcbdragon:

SNOW in Florida? cool!


We'll see I doubt it though. Georgia for sure yes, Especially Northwest Georgia maybe 2 to 3 inches.
Quoting Grothar:


Nothing get by you, does it, Awake?

Not much, esp. the fun stuff and the CIVIL discussion!

Too bad my mental filters don't automatically set to ignore when it would be appropriate.

I just left a post in Mrs. Flood's blog that maybe Flood realized all the pain went away when he stopped throwing himself against the WU brick wall (that is, free-floating animosity, a great expression I've co-opted from an old friend.)
Quoting Patrap:
US-Cuba Hurricane Conference Entry,..


Interesting article!
Are we looking at freezing temps in SW Fla, around Ft Meyers ?
Quoting Jeff9641:


We'll see I doubt it though. Georgia for sure yes, Especially Northwest Georgia maybe 2 to 3 inches.


What's the snow potential for the NC piedmont?
Quoting pcbdragon:

SNOW in Florida? cool!


That would be pretty funny if Florida saw snowflakes before us up here in new england
Thanks Lawntonlooker, nice to know someone read it. People talk about cover ups and what not on this blot,should be led media story. While at least the people at MIT are smart enough not to let it disappear. Lastly the storm forming in western gulf get's scarier each satellite photo hope pressure stays up.


Quoting atmoaggie:

But what about people that bypass the doctor altogether for years because they are on the razor's edge, barely getting by, and cannot afford a copay? How does optionally increasing energy costs improve their quality of life? There is more to quality of life than health care and a false sense of accomplishment that will come with you or I reducing our CO2 emissions to the level of 1985.

Why would anyone not strive for that? I would think that is rather obvious.


I was merely pointing out that breathing cleaner, healthier air would lead to less respiratory problems which, indirectly, would lead to reduced health care costs. I did not single any one person or group out and realize that health care is a completely different subject.

Which by the way, costs have come down significantly.

Humana / $35 copay / 2 adults / 1 Child / $273 per month.

I've come to the conclusion that this world needs a hero. That hero is me. Details to follow very soon.
Humility is such an attractive personality trait in a man.

Where's Presslord?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I grew up not too far from Gary, IN back in the day. I remember driving through the perma-smog to get to Chicago. It's much different now that the clean air laws have been passed. You can actually see more than 1/4 mile.

We are ranked one of the highest polluted areas in the country! That is why we have many residents who suffer from allergies, asthma and very high statistics of cancer. A doctor told a friend of ours that the spots in her lungs were not uncommon in our area. Isn't that reassuring to know that spots in our lungs are considered normal. Why? Because of the massive amounts of air pollution we have here. This is another reason that we have so many sufferers of emphysema, lung diseases and breast and other cancers.


And that, my friend, is your improved quality of life. Granted, some would benefit far greater than others but, as a whole, life would be better.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


And that, my friend, is your improved quality of life. Granted, some would benefit far greater than others but, as a whole, life would be better.


And all the factories have closed and moved to China. They're just pumping the pollution out in China and we have a high unemployment rate.
77. IKE
Quoting beell:
oh well,

GOOOOOOD MORNING, COPENHAGEN!



Excellent choice in kick-a** R & R!

"""Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."""


Quoting Floodman:


It's the shortsightedness of governments...they'd rather spend time and money listening to our every phonecall, txt mssage and email rather than spend a tenth of that amount on a technology that might save lives. Doesn't anyone grow weary of this nonsense?


Yes.


No comments on my BLOB in the GOM?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Humility is such an attractive personality trait in a man.

Where's Presslord?


Humility???LOL,I'm glad you pointed that out,I obviously had the meaning of the word all wrong.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Humility is such an attractive personality trait in a man.

Where's Presslord?


LOL...go get 'em, Awake! :)
Quoting NEwxguy:


Shortsightedness?I believe the government could be legally declared blind.
By the way how are you?Hope the pain after surgery is bearable.


it's okay...I have plenty of meds and to be honest I'm doing pretty well; the only problem is that about the time I start dozing pretty well the phone rings...by the way, I think I'm going to hell...I said some rather foul things to some Pentecostals about 30 minutes ago; they wouldn't stop knocking on the door, you see, so I slammed open the door (as best I can slam open a door these days) and asked them what sort of fornicating idiot would knock on a fornicating door for 10 cursed of God minutes when it was pretty cursed of God evident that no one was going to answer it... Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace

I'm likely to fall asleep again in a few minutes, folks; not being rude but between my meds and being exhausted I can't seem to stay awake today

BBL
Well thank god for shear or I think we would have a problem in the western Caribbean and the western Gulf. But looks to be a lot of energy heading north. I know we sounded like so many before, I hope we don't get to much rain in Fl. But mother nature got her own agenda.
Quoting Floodman:


it's okay...I have plenty of meds and to be honest I'm doing pretty well; the only problem is that about the time I start dozing pretty well the phone rings...by the way, I think I'm going to hell...I said some rather foul things to some Pentecostals about 30 minutes ago; they wouldn't stop knocking on the door, you see, so I slammed open the door (as best I can slam open a door these days) and asked them what sort of fornicating idiot would knock on a fornicating door for 10 cursed of God minutes when it was pretty cursed of God evident that no one was going to answer it... Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace

I'm likely to fall asleep again in a few minutes, folks; not being rude but between my meds and being exhausted I can't seem to stay awake today

BBL


Yep,you will have to pay for that flood,the good news is that you are so drugged up right now you won't feel a thing when that lightning bolt hits your house.
Quoting weatherneophyte:
Regarding #10. Meant to say the now exposed junk science of "man made" global warming.


The climate crisis is very real. Whatever you want to call it, the combination of C02 emissions (man made or otherwise), deforestation, coral bleaching / ocean acidification, and artic ice melting will cause MAJOR problems for us in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, being able to say "I told you so" in this matter would be horrible. Why can't we all be good stewards to our planet and environment? Regardless of anything else it's the right thing to do.
Quoting IKE:


Excellent choice in kick-a** R & R!

"""Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."""




Yes.


And really, if you don't have your volume knob somewhere up around 80-90%-don't bother!
: )
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting Orcasystems:
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?




If it is true, (I believe that it is,) then they ought to be brought up criminal charges.


Why? Because they're trying to get the morons on this planet to take care of it? Come on Doug, you sound like a teabagger with that fake outrage.
Quoting Grothar:


No comments on my BLOB in the GOM?


I think I see a pinhole eye. LOL!!!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Why can't we just commit to reducing our negative impacts on the climate by as much as possible every year? Regardless who or what the cause is.

At the end of the day, if it turns out the AGW theory was just that, a theory, at least we would be living in a much cleaner & healthier environment.

And if it turns out that AGW was in fact the cause, we can rest assured that we did everything possible to prevent it.

The bickering, IMO, is a waste of precious time and energy.


The reduction of greenhouse emissions will have far reaching effects, beyond just climate. Healthier people breathing cleaner air = reduced health care costs and a better quality of life.

Why would anyone not want to strive towards that goal??


Exactly the point I've been trying to make as well! Thank you!
"The climate crisis is very real."

And that has now been proven beyond any shadow of a doubt by the whistle blower at CRU. The planet has warmed and cooled since it's inception without man's hand in it. If there truly is a "climate crisis" as you call it, there isn't a thing man can do about it. Much to many's dismay, man just isn't that significant to this planet. It has been here for milleniums before us, it will continue beyond our existence for many milleniums. We aren't even as significant to this planet as a single plankton is to the Atlantic Ocean.
Quoting Grothar:


No comments on my BLOB in the GOM?


Its a Blob =)
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yep,you will have to pay for that flood,the good news is that you are so drugged up right now you won't feel a thing when that lightning bolt hits your house.


Well, let's hope it just hits HIM and not the whole house, NE...I didn't holler at 'em, and I don't have the benefit of his drug-induced fog! LOL
Quoting Floodman:


it's okay...I have plenty of meds and to be honest I'm doing pretty well; the only problem is that about the time I start dozing pretty well the phone rings...by the way, I think I'm going to hell...I said some rather foul things to some Pentecostals about 30 minutes ago; they wouldn't stop knocking on the door, you see, so I slammed open the door (as best I can slam open a door these days) and asked them what sort of fornicating idiot would knock on a fornicating door for 10 cursed of God minutes when it was pretty cursed of God evident that no one was going to answer it... Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace

I'm likely to fall asleep again in a few minutes, folks; not being rude but between my meds and being exhausted I can't seem to stay awake today

BBL
I like how well versed this post is Floodman. I hope to see more like it, they are even easy to read...jmo :)
The season started out very blob intensive that's the way it should end.
Quoting Floodman:


it's okay...I have plenty of meds and to be honest I'm doing pretty well; the only problem is that about the time I start dozing pretty well the phone rings...by the way, I think I'm going to hell...I said some rather foul things to some Pentecostals about 30 minutes ago; they wouldn't stop knocking on the door, you see, so I slammed open the door (as best I can slam open a door these days) and asked them what sort of fornicating idiot would knock on a fornicating door for 10 cursed of God minutes when it was pretty cursed of God evident that no one was going to answer it... Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace

I'm likely to fall asleep again in a few minutes, folks; not being rude but between my meds and being exhausted I can't seem to stay awake today

BBL


Now THAT'S funny! Thanks Flood for that comedy relief! I hope your meds treat you right, get well soon!
The GOM System seems to have more Bark,than Bite.



You guys don't think I was too harsh, do you? LOL
Quoting Floodman:
You guys don't think I was too harsh, do you? LOL


As long as you can live with yourself than you should be fine, I'm sure they get a lot of that anyway. Gives them a story to laugh or cry about at the end of the day.
Quoting Floodman:
You guys don't think I was too harsh, do you? LOL

If they earned it, well, they earned it.
...Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace...


Friends of yours, dah-lin'?

Festival of mass animal sacrifice begins in Nepal

(Geeeesh, couldn't they, or do they, at least feed the poor with the burnt remains?)
Quoting weatherneophyte:
"The climate crisis is very real."

And that has now been proven beyond any shadow of a doubt by the whistle blower at CRU. The planet has warmed and cooled since it's inception without man's hand in it. If there truly is a "climate crisis" as you call it, there isn't a thing man can do about it. Much to many's dismay, man just isn't that significant to this planet. It has been here for milleniums before us, it will continue beyond our existence for many milleniums. We aren't even as significant to this planet as a single plankton is to the Atlantic Ocean.


Hmmm, we aren't that significant? I would agree if we still lived in the non-industrial age where we aren't dumping billons of metric tons of CO2 and other pollutants into the atmosphere. Then I realize that I live in the really real world where we dump so much insidious crap into the environment that never existed before the last 200 years or so that this is a whole new ball game. Get real!
Rest easy and take yer meds Floodman..we need ya rested up for Next Season.

Pentecostals,eh?


Ill wu-mail some mojo for that.

Easy fix.I just hung a Mayan Calender on my Front Door,scares even the JW's.

Quoting Floodman:
You guys don't think I was too harsh, do you? LOL


Heck no, but then again I do have a low tolerance for dumbassity.
Quoting stansimms:
I've come to the conclusion that this world needs a hero. That hero is me. Details to follow very soon.


stansimms, our hero! Thank you, after the rather frustrating morning I've had you cannot know what that post has done for me!

LOL
so what are everyone's thoughts on latest in the Global Warming Scam ?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704888404574547730924988354.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections _opinion
Quoting StormChaser81:


Its a Blob =)


That's what it looked like to me, Thanks StormChaser!!
CRU emails spur lawsuit
Clarice Feldman
Chris Horner writing for The American Spectator reports that the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) has filed a lawsuit against NASA and Goddard Space Center demanding information they've withheld for three years:


Today, on behalf of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, I filed three Notices of Intent to File Suit against NASA and its Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), for those bodies' refusal - for nearly three years - to provide documents requested under the Freedom of Information Act.

The information sought is directly relevant to the exploding "ClimateGate" scandal revealing document destruction, coordinated efforts in the U.S. and UK to avoid complying with both countries' freedom of information laws, and apparent and widespread intent to defraud at the highest levels of international climate science bodies. Numerous informed commenters had alleged such behavior for years, all of which appears to be affirmed by leaked emails, computer codes and other data from the Climatic Research Unit of the UK's East Anglia University.

All of that material and that sought for years by CEI go to the heart of the scientific claims and campaign underpinning the Kyoto Protocol, its planned successor treaty, "cap-and-trade" legislation and the EPA's threatened regulatory campaign to impose similar measures through the back door.
Thanks, everyone; I really should have had a camera; the looks were rather, ummmm, interesting... You would have thought that I had told the women that their purses were full of testes...owowowowow...it hurts to laugh
Quoting Grothar:


No comments on my BLOB in the GOM?

That Blob is getting more organized and has it's sight on Florida on Wed.
Fare thee well for the nonce, my friends...I've a date with insides of my eyelids
112. xcool
Major snow possible for southern plains early next week, cold focuses in central US

by Allan Huffman



November 24th National Weather Discussion

“Major snow possible for Amarillo to Wichita to Kansas City early next week”
“Cold air to be focused in central US in 11-15 day period”

An upper level system will bring some light Thanksgiving snows to the Midwest making it certainly feel like the holidays after what has been a very warm November in that region. This same upper level disturbance will help initiate a low pressure system off the east coast, but it appears the bulk of the weather associated with this system will stay off the coast. The upper level disturbance could still bring snow to parts of the Great Lakes and central/western NY/PA. The 6z GFS laid a swath of 6-12 inches in north-central PA Friday but that may be a bit overdone. I do think several inches are very possible along with the Lake Effect snow areas cranking up with strong northwest flow across the relatively warm Lakes Friday and Saturday.

This trough will bring some cold air to the Midwest and east for Thanksgiving weekend. But it appears the next storm system will crash into the Pacific Northwest with more rain and mountains snows, and then move into the southwestern and south-central US and in turn creating a downstream ridge over the southeast US which will likely warm the plains and then east back up above normal for next week.

This storm has the potential to be a big ticket item next week with the potential for significant snow in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle by Sunday night and Monday. The storm could also spread snow into Kansas and Missouri as the weak goes on. The GFS is colder and also spreads snow further east but for now that may be too far east. But the potential is there for a big snow event for areas from Amarillo to Wichita to Kansas City early next week.




This storm could ultimately spread more heavy rain as well into the southeast and eastern US as the week progresses. It appears some decent cold air will drop in behind this system and take up residence in the plains in the 11-15 day range, with the east avoiding the cold air for the time being. I don’t think it is necessarily going to be warm in the east, but the significant cold will likely hold out in the plains through at least 12/5. Beyond this the cold air could shift into the east, but we will have to see. The main driver of this pattern is the building block over western and northwestern Canada, the NAO does not look to be a main driver. Thus the cold air will be most favored in the north-central, central, and Midwest regions.




by Allan Huffman !!!!!!
113. IKE
6-10 day temps....




8-14 day temps....

114. IKE
6-10 day precip....




8-14 day precip....

Quoting Jeff9641:

That Blob is getting more organized and has it's sight on Florida on Wed.


Know how to post the animated version of this? Looks like a wet Wednesday for somebody.
I live in the little SE part of Fl.


Really big BLOB. Can't wait for the local weather people to use the phrase, "....copious amounts of precipitation"
118. xcool
Quoting xcool:
Major snow possible for southern plains early next week, cold focuses in central US

by Allan Huffman



November 24th National Weather Discussion

“Major snow possible for Amarillo to Wichita to Kansas City early next week”
“Cold air to be focused in central US in 11-15 day period”

An upper level system will bring some light Thanksgiving snows to the Midwest making it certainly feel like the holidays after what has been a very warm November in that region. This same upper level disturbance will help initiate a low pressure system off the east coast, but it appears the bulk of the weather associated with this system will stay off the coast. The upper level disturbance could still bring snow to parts of the Great Lakes and central/western NY/PA. The 6z GFS laid a swath of 6-12 inches in north-central PA Friday but that may be a bit overdone. I do think several inches are very possible along with the Lake Effect snow areas cranking up with strong northwest flow across the relatively warm Lakes Friday and Saturday.

This trough will bring some cold air to the Midwest and east for Thanksgiving weekend. But it appears the next storm system will crash into the Pacific Northwest with more rain and mountains snows, and then move into the southwestern and south-central US and in turn creating a downstream ridge over the southeast US which will likely warm the plains and then east back up above normal for next week.

This storm has the potential to be a big ticket item next week with the potential for significant snow in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle by Sunday night and Monday. The storm could also spread snow into Kansas and Missouri as the weak goes on. The GFS is colder and also spreads snow further east but for now that may be too far east. But the potential is there for a big snow event for areas from Amarillo to Wichita to Kansas City early next week.




This storm could ultimately spread more heavy rain as well into the southeast and eastern US as the week progresses. It appears some decent cold air will drop in behind this system and take up residence in the plains in the 11-15 day range, with the east avoiding the cold air for the time being. I don’t think it is necessarily going to be warm in the east, but the significant cold will likely hold out in the plains through at least 12/5. Beyond this the cold air could shift into the east, but we will have to see. The main driver of this pattern is the building block over western and northwestern Canada, the NAO does not look to be a main driver. Thus the cold air will be most favored in the north-central, central, and Midwest regions.




by Allan Huffman !!!!!!


Hey, xcool! Wow, Allan Huffman! Who would have thought. How you doing???
Quoting Grothar:


Really big BLOB. Can't wait for the local weather people to use the phrase, "....copious amounts of precipitation"
Probably it will dissipate before reaching the West Coast of Florida,as they usually do.
Some serious rain right now over Tampa. One the East side of the Bay close to 2" an hour. Some areas in Central Florida are now expected to get several inches of rain by the end of tomorrow. There is another good storm building just south of Orlando now. Kinda looks like summer out here.
Quoting Grothar:


Know how to post the animated version of this? Looks like a wet Wednesday for somebody.
I live in the little SE part of Fl.


WOOHOO!! Rain! I'll believe it when I see it! Seems like we've been destined to receive rain so many times this year and something always happens to steer it away, dissolve it, etc. Uncanny...
Heavy thunderstorms over the majority of Hillsborough County. They can't be pop up thunderstorms can they?
GOM current IR Loop

Agreed hurricanejunky! Uncanny is definitely the right word for it, I really hope we end up getting several inches of rain.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hmmm, we aren't that significant? I would agree if we still lived in the non-industrial age where we aren't dumping billons of metric tons of CO2 and other pollutants into the atmosphere. Then I realize that I live in the really real world where we dump so much insidious crap into the environment that never existed before the last 200 years or so that this is a whole new ball game. Get real!


I've stood on the sidelines with this recent discovery and will continue to do so until more info is in, but just want to correct something here. Strike out "CO2 and" and you might have a point, although we are much better with it these days.

1. You do realize that atmospheric CO2 levels have been way higher in the past than today, right? Even with our addition. And, before man ever walked the earth. Therefore, your statement is false as to the "never existed before" as it relates to CO2.

2. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is in the air we breath. It always has been and always will be in the atmosphere. Necessary for life. The concentrations necessary for it to be a health issue are unattainable anywhere near the surface. At higher altitudes it can, but that's more of a CO2 to O2 type ratio thingy. Like the scientific terminology. ;) Only mountain climbers have to worry about that.

Just pointing out a couple facts as it relates to CO2. IMO, exactly why CO2 emissions has been framed in the GW context. Can't argue it is harmful in any other way except in extremely high concentrations (5%).

Back to work.

Modified to clarify.
128. xcool
Grothar do very good
129. xcool
freezing slidell la friday.noooo .i have work from 2am to 11am
Quoting Patrap:


Big storm just south of Orlando with lots of lightening. This storm is moving toward Orlando while other storms are building in from Tampa. Big vertical development with these thunderheads.
131. xcool



cold air
Afternoon, everybody.

Quoting timtrice:
Dr. Masters, you are in part to blame for no longer having a replacement. You stated several times in the past losing QuikSCAT would only have minor implications. And you've now been on this crusade to save it?

Perhaps if the weather community would be more negotiable instead of rambling back and forth we wouldn't have to wait 5+ years for a replacement.

Or, perhaps it just isn't that vital.
I seem to recall the good doc making "The Case for QuikSCAT" at least once a year since the blog has been around. He was also quite pleased about Proenza's support of the instrument until Proenza started misappropriating information. I don't think your comment is founded in fact.
133. IKE
Tallahassee afternoon discussion...

"SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OUR OFFSHORE WATERS
AND INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
EVENING TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE GULF ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS LOW AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE TOMORROW IS NOT AGREED UPON TOO WELL BY THE MODELS.
NONETHELESS...A SHARP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PRECIP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE LOW AND WHERE ISENTROPIC
FORCING IS GREATEST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL CLEAR US TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MUCH COOLER (ALMOST COLD) TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALBANY COULD
REACH THE FREEZING MARK WITH TALLAHASSEE CLOSE BEHIND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S.
FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE TRENDED MIN
TEMPS NEAR THE MID 30S AND HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST OUT
OF THE FORECAST AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS."
Quoting Seastep:


I've stood on the sidelines with this recent discovery and will continue to do so until more info is in, but just want to correct something here. Strike out "CO2 and" and you might have a point, although we are much better with it these days.

1. You do realize that atmospheric CO2 levels have been way higher in the past than today, right? Even with our addition. And, before man ever walked the earth. Therefore, your statement is false as to the "never existed before" as it relates to CO2.

2. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is in the air we breath. It always has been and always will be in the atmosphere. Necessary for life. The concentrations necessary for it to be a health issue are unattainable anywhere near the surface. At higher altitudes it can, but that's more of a CO2 to O2 type ratio thingy. Like the scientific terminology. ;) Only mountain climbers have to worry about that.

Just pointing out a couple facts as it relates to CO2. IMO, exactly why CO2 emissions has been framed in the GW context. Can't argue it is harmful in any other way except in extremely high concentrations (5%).

Back to work.

Modified to clarify.


Did you work for the Bush administration? C02 is absolutely a pollutant. The Dick and Jane "c02 is good for you" video doesn't work on me nor does the Jedi mind trick. Thanks...

EDIT: What I meant was C02 is absolutely a pollutant in the context of climate change and greenhouse gases. It's not actually toxic, however.
135. xcool




kaboom .
136. jipmg
Quoting xcool:



cold air


are those highs? o-O
137. xcool
jipmg 7days temp Forecast
#101 You DO know that plants require CO2 to survive, right? And it's you that needs to "get real". As far as human's time on this earth is concerned, and as far as their impact on the planet, we're no more than a blink of an eye. Yes, YOU are insignificant in the general scheme of things. I am too, but at least my ego allows me to see that. By the way, my huge Hummer gets 12 mpg, so I'm doing my part
Quoting GlidrGreg:
CRU emails spur lawsuit
Clarice Feldman
Chris Horner writing for The American Spectator reports that the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) has filed a lawsuit against NASA and Goddard Space Center demanding information they've withheld for three years:


Today, on behalf of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, I filed three Notices of Intent to File Suit against NASA and its Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), for those bodies' refusal - for nearly three years - to provide documents requested under the Freedom of Information Act.

The information sought is directly relevant to the exploding "ClimateGate" scandal revealing document destruction, coordinated efforts in the U.S. and UK to avoid complying with both countries' freedom of information laws, and apparent and widespread intent to defraud at the highest levels of international climate science bodies. Numerous informed commenters had alleged such behavior for years, all of which appears to be affirmed by leaked emails, computer codes and other data from the Climatic Research Unit of the UK's East Anglia University.

All of that material and that sought for years by CEI go to the heart of the scientific claims and campaign underpinning the Kyoto Protocol, its planned successor treaty, "cap-and-trade" legislation and the EPA's threatened regulatory campaign to impose similar measures through the back door.



You go boy!


Hold their feet to the fire!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Why can't we just commit to reducing our negative impacts on the climate by as much as possible every year? Regardless who or what the cause is.

At the end of the day, if it turns out the AGW theory was just that, a theory, at least we would be living in a much cleaner & healthier environment.

And if it turns out that AGW was in fact the cause, we can rest assured that we did everything possible to prevent it.

The bickering, IMO, is a waste of precious time and energy.


The reduction of greenhouse emissions will have far reaching effects, beyond just climate. Healthier people breathing cleaner air = reduced health care costs and a better quality of life.

Why would anyone not want to strive towards that goal??
Hear, hear!

I had to quote this sensible, reasoned, well-expressed response to this whole AGW debate.

In addition, even IF the GW is not anthropogenic, the careless way man is modifying the planet may end up creating negative effects that could have been avoided with a bit more attention to conservation and cleanliness. I mentioned the Dust Bowl of the 1930s yesterday. Today I mention coastal areas which are likely to be increasingly impacted by flooding and storms. This century's "dust bowl" may not be in the US; the "Katrinas" of the future may not even be cat 3 if coastal developments continue apace.

The name of the game is predict and adapt. While I agree it's a good idea to view AGW with skepticism until more data is collected, any forewarning of a major climate shift should be taken as a tool for preparation, not a moot for debate.
Quoting Seastep:


I've stood on the sidelines with this recent discover and will continue to do so until more info is in, but just want to correct something here. Strike out "CO2 and" and you might have a point, although we are much better with it these days.

1. You do realize that atmospheric CO2 levels have been way higher in the past than today, right? Even with our addition. And, before man ever walked the earth. Therefore, your statement is false as to the "never existed before" as it relates to CO2.

2. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is in the air we breath. It always has been and always will be in the atmosphere. Necessary for life. The concentrations necessary for it to be a health issue are unattainable anywhere near the surface. At higher altitudes it can, but that's more of a CO2 to O2 type ratio thingy. Like the scientific terminology. ;)

Just pointing out a couple facts as it relates to CO2. IMO, exactly why CO2 emissions has been framed in the GW context. Can't argue it is harmful in any other way except in extremely high concentrations.

Back to work.


Yes, there have been higher levels of CO2 than even what is predicted for global warming scenarios, but then again there have also been dinosaurs. CO2 levels have never been as high as now during the Holocene, when human habitation and civilization flourished. It is this relative stability, a rare stability, that has allowed human civilization to survive, and now we are disrupting that stability using our own carbon emissions. The increase in CO2 concentrations (which does follow temperature, but that does not disprove the current theory that increased CO2 emissions will raise global temperatures -- I'll explain that later) from the peak of the last ice age to pre-industrial times (+100 ppm; 20,000 years), is actually less than the increase in concentrations from pre-industrial times to today (+108 ppm; 200 years)! High CO2 concentrations that we are pushing the climate into has occured before, but never during human existence.

CO2 is not a pollutant in the sense that it is toxic to life at current concentrations, but rather that an increase in its concentrations will have a drastic effect on Earth's climate. It's not so much as the change itself as the rate of change. As the oceans absorb CO2, it becomes more acidic, and this kills corals and invertabrates that depend on carbonate shells. A warmer ocean also absorbs CO2 less easily.

Now, remember how CO2 can and does drive climate in today's world, and how the oceans have trouble absorbing CO2 in warmer temperatures? This is a positive feedback scenario, in that when the oceans warm as does the planet, the oceans go from a net sink to a net source of CO2, releasing the gases that are already stored. This not only increases the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, it actually makes the climate warm faster. Thus temperature and CO2 concentrations are co-reinforcing. When we add CO2 to the atmosphere along with other GHGs, it ends up increasing global temperature, although there is a lag period. The increase in GHGs leading to an enhanced greenhouse effect is not debated, it is basic science.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Did you work for the Bush administration? C02 is absolutely a pollutant. The Dick and Jane "c02 is good for you" video doesn't work on me nor does the Jedi mind trick. Thanks...

EDIT: What I meant was C02 is absolutely a pollutant in the context of climate change and greenhouse gases. It's not actually toxic, however.


That was my point. I did not go into that.

You were trying to frame it as a pollutant OUTSIDE the AGW debate, which is why I felt the need to correct it.... outside the AGW debate.

And, again, your statement is still false in terms of "never before." CO2 has been higher many times throughout earth's history based on what we know.
143. IKE
GW debate is like the energizer bunny....it just keeps going and going and going and going and going..........

It's worse than the arguments on here on whether an invest is RIP-ing or not.
Quoting Grothar:


No comments on my BLOB in the GOM?



Its a very niiice blob..
Quoting xcool:



cold air

Wow. That means that the temperature here where I live in S. Ontario will rise to around 17C (62F)! It has never been even close to that warm on the first of December in the past six years! (or is that not surface temps?)
Quoting weatherneophyte:
#101 You DO know that plants require CO2 to survive, right? And it's you that needs to "get real". As far as human's time on this earth is concerned, and as far as their impact on the planet, we're no more than a blink of an eye. Yes, YOU are insignificant in the general scheme of things. I am too, but at least my ego allows me to see that. By the way, my huge Hummer gets 12 mpg, so I'm doing my part


All air breathing creatures expel tons of it simultaneously with every breath. Some more than others :-/
Quoting IKE:
GW debate is like the energizer bunny....it just keeps going and going and going and going and going..........

It's worse than the arguments on here on whether an invest is RIP-ing or not.

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.
Quoting Floodman:


it's okay...I have plenty of meds and to be honest I'm doing pretty well; the only problem is that about the time I start dozing pretty well the phone rings...by the way, I think I'm going to hell...I said some rather foul things to some Pentecostals about 30 minutes ago; they wouldn't stop knocking on the door, you see, so I slammed open the door (as best I can slam open a door these days) and asked them what sort of fornicating idiot would knock on a fornicating door for 10 cursed of God minutes when it was pretty cursed of God evident that no one was going to answer it... Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace

I'm likely to fall asleep again in a few minutes, folks; not being rude but between my meds and being exhausted I can't seem to stay awake today

BBL
I'm truly surprised they didn't offer to pray for you....
149. xcool
yeah
Quoting weatherneophyte:
#101 You DO know that plants require CO2 to survive, right? And it's you that needs to "get real". As far as human's time on this earth is concerned, and as far as their impact on the planet, we're no more than a blink of an eye. Yes, YOU are insignificant in the general scheme of things. I am too, but at least my ego allows me to see that. By the way, my huge Hummer gets 12 mpg, so I'm doing my part


That's a nice sentiment. See the pretty plants needs C02. Hey dude, how about realizing that we're chopping down millions of acres of trees each year! There won't be any trees or plants left to breathe in the C02 at the rate we're going. It's kind of like having 8 air returns in your house but eliminating 7. The last time we had levels of C02 in the atmosphere this high was 15 million years ago. Why now since the industrial revolution began has the C02 spiked? That isn't a coincidence. It's a combination of deforestation and ridiculous amounts of C02 being dumped into the atmosphere (in addition to natural C02 emissions). One big difference between now and 15 million years ago is that the deforestation is coming along with the C02 spike. One thing to keep in mind, 15 million years ago the global temp was 5-10 degrees higher and sea level was about 100 ft higher. Raise the sea level 100 ft now and figure out the ramifications. Your Hummer not only spews the lovely C02 that you seem to love so much but also the toxic pollutants like carbon monoxide. Takes all kinds I guess...
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


All air breathing creatures expel tons of it simultaneously with every breath. Some more than others :-/


Thank you. Exactly my point!
I wrote to Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) about QuikSCAT and the need for a replacement. He emailed back specifically about the satellite (not just a form letter about the general topic), so hopefully it will stay on his radar.
Quoting Seastep:


That was my point. I did not go into that.

You were trying to frame it as a pollutant OUTSIDE the AGW debate, which is why I felt the need to correct it.... outside the AGW debate.

And, again, your statement is still false in terms of "never before." CO2 has been higher many times throughout earth's history based on what we know.


If you wanna go back that far, about 15 million years ago. That was the last time it was as high as now. Global temps were 5-10 degrees higher and sea level was about 100 ft higher. Do we want a return to that?!?!?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.


As I said, I'm not going to get into it other than to say that I am simply monitoring the obs vs. models. Don't need to be a PHD to validate it.

We have sat temps back to 1977 or so, or 30 years. 20 of those have shown warming, 10 cooling. If the next 10 still show cooling, how can a 50-50 be settled? It's not. Not a single model called for 10 years without warming, let alone 20 years. Not one.

And before you go with the data before that, I don't compare apples to oranges. Only apples to apples we have is sat temps.

And, those oranges are exactly what has been now called into question, and not just through suspicion anymore.

Talk to me in 10 years. Although, maybe I will finish my model validation project during the off season finally. :)
155. IKE
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.



LOL...I don't even know what the IIPC is.:)
Quoting IKE:



LOL...I don't even know what the IIPC is.:)


Ike,you really enjoy punishing yourself,I think its called masochism!!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.



Ahmmm. You might want to do a little research. Unequivocal evidence? Really isn't a debate any longer? I think finally a debate is going to be forced, like it or not. And that "unequivocal evidence" now looks pretty tainted.

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2188feb3-802a-23a d-4de4-3fbc0a92e126&Issue_id
SPC (Day 2)
...CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE DAY...
A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW MOVING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION N OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AND MOVE
EWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER MODEST OVER FL GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AN INCREASE
IN LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STILL...THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
Well, I gotta go do some work. I'll check in later, when the after dinner crowd gets in... lol.
The Debate

Should we or should we not continue to pollute the earth?

I thought the motto of life was to leave things better than the way you found them.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


If you wanna go back that far, about 15 million years ago. That was the last time it was as high as now. Global temps were 5-10 degrees higher and sea level was about 100 ft higher. Do we want a return to that?!?!?


Beside the point. Just responding to your "Jedi mind trick" of clearly giving the impression that CO2 is a pollutant outside the AGW debate, comparing it with other, truly harmful, pollutants.

And, I cannot even count the people I have had to correct on that....

Just making sure there aren't many more. That's all.

I won't get into whether increased CO2 levels follow warming or vv. ;)
162. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Ike,you really enjoy punishing yourself,I think its called masochism!!


LOL...if I believe one way and you believe another, unless I'm trying to sell you something, I'll let you keep your opinion.

And even if I try to sell you something, I won't push you to buy. That's how I've approached my job and that's how I would approaching...dare I say it....gw.

We're all grains of sand on this planet and that's all. Yes......gw is important, but arguing over it is not my cup of tea.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The Debate

Should we or should we not continue to pollute the earth?

I thought the motto of life was to leave things better than the way you found them.


CO2 does not pollute the earth. That is all I am addressing. Purely outside the AGW debate and, again, exactly the point.

Debunking the false claim that CO2 is a pollutant outside the AGW debate.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...if I believe one way or you believe another, unless I'm trying to sell you something, I'll let you keep your opinion.

And even if I try to sell you something, I won't push you to buy. That's how I've approached my job and that's how I would approaching...dare I say it....gw.

We're all grains of sand on this planet and that's all. Yes......gw is important, but arguing over it is not my cup of tea.


especially when both sides have said the same thing over and over and over
Quoting Seastep:


As I said, I'm not going to get into it other than to say that I am simply monitoring the obs vs. models. Don't need to be a PHD to validate it.

We have sat temps back to 1977 or so, or 30 years. 20 of those have shown warming, 10 cooling. If the next 10 still show cooling, how can a 50-50 be settled? It's not. Not a single model called for 10 years without warming, let alone 20 years. Not one.

And before you go with the data before that, I don't compare apples to oranges. Only apples to apples we have is sat temps.

And, those oranges are exactly what has been now called into question, and not just through suspicion anymore.

Talk to me in 10 years. Although, maybe I will finish my model validation project during the off season finally. :)

Most satellites that observed cooling likely observed stratospheric temperatures, or a combination of tropospheric, stratospheric, and ionospheric temperatures. This was predicted by the climate models. In fact, the cooling of the upper atmosphere has resulted in the shrinking of the atmoshpere at higher altitudes and an increase in the speeds of orbital satellites. If the measurements were global, then it is unlikely that some would show warming while others cooling, otherwise we must invalidate the data. Here's a graph of surface temperatures along with satellite observations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png . The recent stall in temperatures is not cooling. The warmest year on record was 2005, depending on which records you use. There have been four minor dips in the temperature record since anthropogenic forces took over from natural cycles over 30 years ago, and we are currently in the fourth and smallest dip: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png . This is just a short-term fluctuation which can be explained by solar cycles, which drive short-term change.
The storm system in the Gulf of Mexico is looking better on satellite than I thought it would:

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The Debate

Should we or should we not continue to pollute the earth?

I thought the motto of life was to leave things better than the way you found them.


I think that is a wonderful sentiment and I agree with that 100%. However, do not raise taxes and put in all kinds of government regulations programs based on questionable statistics. Did you know that 79.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Clouds of pollution pictured from space

Haze and dust from industrial activity blanket low-lying regions of eastern China and northern India, satellite images reveal
Next

Image 1: Haze from industrial and human activity in eastern China pools in the Yellow River's coastal plain (Image: MODIS Rapid Response Team/NASA)


169. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


especially when both sides have said the same thing over and over and over


Amen to those comments.

But I understand if some believe it is sooo important, trying to convince non-"believers", to change their mind.

I'm just not into arguing.

And I've said this before...I believe gw exists. I believe the planet is getting warmer.

Trouble Breathing? Blame the Jet Stream.



Source: European Space Agency.

The above image shows atmospheric nitrogen dioxide concentrations worldwide. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a mainly man-made gas, produced by the usual suspects: power plants, transportation, industry, and biomass burning. Lightning in the air, and microbes in soil, also create nitrogen dioxide.

The map clearly exposes some of the world's known worst offenders--the East Coast megalopolis, London, Beijing--as well as some surprising pockets near Johannesberg and Eastern Kazhakstan.

Continued exposure to NO2 can cause lung damage and respiratory problems. NO2 levels in the U.S. are usually too low to cause any direct harm; unfortunately, NO2 also leads to the production of ozone in the lower atmosphere, an excess of which can heighten allergen sensitivity and cause temporary breathing difficulties.

How does air quality in the New York City compare to other places across the country? Not exactly as I expected...

Here are some Air Quality Indices for several locations across the U.S: New York, the location of ScienceBlogs Headquarters; Coos County, New Hampshire (my former home); Los Angeles, the smog capital of the U.S.; and Portland, OR, Katherine's former stomping grounds. I also threw in Beijing, for comparison.

As for the labored breathing, it looks like I can't blame my recent move. The Northeast appears to be our nation's tailpipe, whether you live in the Northern Forest, or under the Brooklyn Bridge.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
6:00 AM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nida (970 hPa) located at 10.2N 144.1 has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knot with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.5N 141.6E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting IKE:
GW debate is like the energizer bunny....it just keeps going and going and going and going and going..........

It's worse than the arguments on here on whether an invest is RIP-ing or not.


That's because for the most part, it's not really a debate so much as people hurling accusations and preaching at each other in an effort to consul and reinforce their own ego's about the decision they've already made, regardless of what is said. Seriously, how many people can truthfully say they have based their belief on AGW on hard evidence, or at least some fairly sound reasoning? If it where legal, I'd be willing to bet all my assets that the overwhelming majority believe what they believe because some authority figure and/or talking head that caters to their egos told them to. Then, they went and still are looking for evidence to fit that pre-existing belief. This is regardless of their actual stance.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Most satellites that observed cooling likely observed stratospheric temperatures, or a combination of tropospheric, stratospheric, and ionospheric temperatures. This was predicted by the climate models. In fact, the cooling of the upper atmosphere has resulted in the shrinking of the atmoshpere at higher altitudes and an increase in the speeds of orbital satellites. If the measurements were global, then it is unlikely that some would show warming while others cooling, otherwise we must invalidate the data. Here's a graph of surface temperatures along with satellite observations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png . The recent stall in temperatures is not cooling. The warmest year on record was 2005, depending on which records you use. There have been four minor dips in the temperature record since anthropogenic forces took over from natural cycles over 30 years ago, and we are currently in the fourth and smallest dip: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png . This is just a short-term fluctuation which can be explained by solar cycles, which drive short-term change.


Gotta run before you actually do pull me in, but as I said, I'll finally finish up my model validation. Once it is done, I will update it monthly. That part is easy. Data is data.

We'll see about the temporary blip. By no means am I predicting what will occur. You could be right. But, maybe not, too. ;)

Just think, what if we get back down to 1985 or 1975 temps?

Good civil discussion, though. Thanks for that.
174. IKE
Quoting CrazyDuke:


That's because for the most part, it's not really a debate so much as people hurling accusations and preaching at each other in an effort to consul and reinforce their own ego's about the decision they've already made, regardless of what is said. Seriously, how many people can truthfully say they have based their belief on AGW on hard evidence, or at least some fairly sound reasoning? If it where legal, I'd be willing to bet all my assets that the overwhelming majority believe what they believe because some authority figure and/or talking head that caters to their egos told them to. Then, they went and still are looking for evidence to fit that pre-existing belief. This is regardless of their actual stance.


You may be correct....actually, after rereading your post, I agree with you, for the most part.
Quoting Patrap:

Trouble Breathing? Blame the Jet Stream.



Source: European Space Agency.

The above image shows atmospheric nitrogen dioxide concentrations worldwide. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a mainly man-made gas, produced by the usual suspects: power plants, transportation, industry, and biomass burning. Lightning in the air, and microbes in soil, also create nitrogen dioxide.

The map clearly exposes some of the world's known worst offenders--the East Coast megalopolis, London, Beijing--as well as some surprising pockets near Johannesberg and Eastern Kazhakstan.

Continued exposure to NO2 can cause lung damage and respiratory problems. NO2 levels in the U.S. are usually too low to cause any direct harm; unfortunately, NO2 also leads to the production of ozone in the lower atmosphere, an excess of which can heighten allergen sensitivity and cause temporary breathing difficulties.

How does air quality in the New York City compare to other places across the country? Not exactly as I expected...

Here are some Air Quality Indices for several locations across the U.S: New York, the location of ScienceBlogs Headquarters; Coos County, New Hampshire (my former home); Los Angeles, the smog capital of the U.S.; and Portland, OR, Katherine's former stomping grounds. I also threw in Beijing, for comparison.

As for the labored breathing, it looks like I can't blame my recent move. The Northeast appears to be our nation's tailpipe, whether you live in the Northern Forest, or under the Brooklyn Bridge.


I'm in the tailpipe? Don't think you'll be seeing that in any tourist brochures for new england.
Sea and Air Pollution as seen from Orbiting sensors

ERS 2 image (GOME instrument)



The graph shows clearly the air pollution by SO2 over the Si-Chuan basin due to an extensive use of coal for warming and industrial emissions.


In this ERS 2 image, located northwest of Bergen (Norway), it is easy to detect a boat emptying its tank. A close collaboration between the satellite station an the Norwegian Authorities enable to control and prevent this kind of behaviour.




177. P451
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Thanks for bringing us up todate on Quickscat. 451 Don't you think the distance of a geostationary type quickscat would be to far away to get good data? 22000 miles vs 500 miles.


To be honest I had no idea there was such a difference in satellite orbits. I was merely thinking in terms of being able to take a picture at the moment you want of the region you want versus having to wait hours for another pass - and - hope the pass goes over the region you want the sample. I'll leave that ability up to the scientists (conveniently, of course) to figure out how to give us a geostationary surface wind sampling sensor.

Was just a thought...


Meanwhile, X'Ida'Easter still plugging along.


Between 32 and 35 North and 36 and 39 West.

Best Guess: Headed for the Canary Islands off of Morocco.



Looking at upper and lower level winds in the gulf there has got to be some twist in the atmosphere.Bp is also dropping all over gulf and western Carribean with strong low and upper winds.
Im uploading NHC forecaster's Dr. Lixion Avila words from yesterdays US Cuban Hurricane Conference here in New Orleans.
In the video,I point at the speaker as to not allow my cam to interfere with the folks sitting behind me,but I pan up at the end to the Panel members.

The upload will take a few minutes.

Pat,

Thanks for the uploads. I'm going to check out ur blog when I take my next break.
R.I.P. QuickSCAT
NHC forecaster Lixion Avila's words at the Conference here in New Orleans yesterday.



I wonder if this will be the season ending Typhoon in the WPAC?












Loop
184. jipmg
With that eye, that thing is much stronger than CAT2 by now
Longest November heatwave 130 years ago

The most recent heatwave was record-breaking for many areas, but in November 1878 a heatwave lasted almost twice as long, according to weatherzone.com.au.

Nearly all inland areas of New South Wales and South Australia and surrounding areas of Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had at least eight days of extreme heat, record-breaking for November.

But in some inland towns, records were not broken.

Inland weather stations which have measured temperature for the last 131 years or longer show that there was a November heatwave which lasted about two weeks.

Gunnedah, in northern NSW had 15 consecutive days of 35 degrees(95F) or hotter in November 1878. This month Gunnedah had nine in a row, the longest November stretch in 131 years. The northern NSW town only averages four-to-five days above 35(95F) in November.

With this piece of evidence one could claim that this most recent hot spell is unprecedented in November in 131 years.

For some coastal areas of South Australia, including Adelaide this year's heatwave is the longest on record for November. Official temperatures have been measured as far back as 1887 in Adelaide, but not as far back as 1878, like Gunnedah.

Weatherzone
Quoting jipmg:
With that eye, that thing is much stronger than CAT2 by now




BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009

...TYPHOON NIDA STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM FARAULEP...

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR FARAULEP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
200 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
235 MILES EAST OF FAIS
295 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
400 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

SIMPSON
WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.6N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 143.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
WITH A 20NM EYE EVIDENT. A 241553Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE SMALL EYE
WITH FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES; RJTD REMAINS LOWER AT 65 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TRACK
PHILOSOPHY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE
UKMO, GFS AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE
TO RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. THE TC-LAPS,
JGSM, WBAR AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 96. BASED ON THE EXPECTED PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 25N WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
TY 26W WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND RE-CURVE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE REMNANTS
EITHER TRACKING NORTHWARD OR, IF IT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY, TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z,
250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
(TWENTYSEVEN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN
188. xcool



SNOW BY 18Z GFS SLIDELL LA TO M.S
190. amd
Latest Typhoon Nida estimates by ADT:
(From the CIMSS Website)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 NOV 2009 Time : 231600 UTC
Lat : 10:38:26 N Lon : 143:50:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 931.1mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
System in gulf could bring severe weather to Fl
What's the difference between a positively tilted and negatively tilted low pressure system?
Evening folks. Cannot read the blog as it is all stretched out. Is anyone else having this problem? Changed to "compatibility view" and it works now.
Quoting Chicklit:
Evening folks. Cannot read the blog as it is all stretched out. Is anyone else having this problem? Changed to "compatibility view" and it works now.

I have no problemo here Chickit.
Beautiful weather this weekend in West Palm / Lake Worth:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 24 Tonight
Showers and a few thundershowers. Low 72F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 25 Tomorrow
Showers and thundershowers likely. High 79F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 25 Tomorrow night
Showers and thundershowers during the evening followed by a few lingering showers overnight. Low 66F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 26 Thursday
Morning showers. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Nov 27 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.
Nov 28 Saturday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Nov 29 Sunday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 30 Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 1 Tuesday
Mostly Cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 2 Wednesday
Isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 3 Thursday
Showers. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.

What's funny is the MSN weather site has our high as 62 on Dec. 1.
197. xcool


cold air comeing soon


at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namscsfcbw.gif
198. xcool



Yes xcool...supposed to have miserable weather down here tomorrow. Cloudy and rainy. Let's see if it pans out.
It was like losing a valued friend.

Amen. We will certainly miss it next year.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 25 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1004 hPa) located at 10.9S 51.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.9S 49.9E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 48.1E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.7S 44.6E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.9S/42.1E - 20 kts (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================

Position is based on extrapolation from AMSRE (2207z). If convection has flared up on infrared imagery, NW shows that it is restricted to the southwest quadrant.

1200z model run shows no major change for the intensity forecast: Environmental condition looks less favorable for re-intensification. Actually, if upper level conditions are good, lower level inflow is expected to weaken with a poor monsoon inflow that should now disappear within the next 24 hours and a tradewind inflow that should be disrupted by the northern tip of Madagascar. In fact now, none of the guidance deepen significantly the system.

Latest available Numerical Weather Prediction models remain in good agreement. The system is expected to move on the western edge of a low tropospheric ridge and track west-southwestward within the next three days toward the Comoros archipelago. Only minor adjustments has been done to the previous forecast.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON NIDA (T0922)
9:00 AM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nida (950 hPa) located at 10.7N 143.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knot with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.9N 141.2E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.5N 139.6E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.4N 139.0E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Quoting weatherbro:
What's the difference between a positively tilted and negatively tilted low pressure system?


A negatively tilted low pressure system is a sign that the low pressure system has reached maturity, strong thermodynamic instability and good wind shear.

Habby Hints
Quoting weatherbro:
What's the difference between a positively tilted and negatively tilted low pressure system?

Check this site. Explains it well(or much better than I could ever hope to)
Link
positively tilted, means it thinks the economy's improving.
A "Negative tilt" would explain the New years Day after effect from too Much New years Eve..Libations.

"Hic"...scuse me,

207. P451
aida is 85mph? What? That thing looks 125+.

Pat is that negative tilt when gravity waves take over.
209. beell
Those are all good hints from Haby. Of the ones listed, the most important for severe would be the trough's ability to advect or move cooler/cold upper air over warm moist air at the surface. Usually from S to N more or less for the surface air. and greater instability through a taller column of the atmosphere. The "lapse rate".

But none of these hints address the fact that divergence aloft is greater in a negative tilt trough. Strong divergence aloft leads to strong convergence at the surface and a stronger surface low. The vorticity advection thing. It still occurs with a neutral or positive tilt. Just stronger in a negative tilt. As soon as I understand why, I'll come back and let everybody know. Maybe mid 2010?

ADDED: So with strong E or SE winds at the surface and a SW wind at the mid-levels leaving the base of the trough you are well on the way to producing good directional shear (winds changing direction with height) for rotating storms-not always tornadoes-but sometimes...
Does anybody notice that the Gulf system is more well defined and stronger then what was forecasted by the models?? Maybe it's just me...


Looks like a good severe weather event in Central/South Florida, maybe a bit of isolated severe weather in North Florida.. Looks bigger then what the models showed.. check this out

Notice the LATEST GFS shows a squall line, but not much moisture near it.. a very weak low..


If you look at the Gulf storm on the IR, you can see the models initialized this weaker then it actually is. Accuweather Met. Henry Margusity (weather madness) has pointed out this possible scenario of the storm being stronger then forecast.
I'm also concerned for a major outbreak of severe weather in Florida next week, GFS model shows a major squall line blasting through the state. Something to watch for right now..
There have been four minor dips in the temperature record since anthropogenic forces took over from natural cycles over 30 years ago

Funny.
;-)
Quoting P451:
aida is 85mph? What? That thing looks 125 .


Well it now has 110-115mph.
215. beell
)
00
WTPQ31 PGUM 250040
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
1100 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009

...TYPHOON NIDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY THE
GUAM RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS AND
290 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI.

TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 11 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MUNDELL
RIP QuickScat!

Pains me we can spend "Billions" on nonsensical vote buying programs, but can't seem to have the wisdom to realize the importance of losing QuickScat!

We have absolutely no common sense left in Washington DC!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TYPHOON NIDA (T0922)
12:00 PM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nida (935 hPa) located at 11.2N 143.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knot with gusts of 130 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north-northwest at 12 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.4N 140.7E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)

---
bad that they have to upgrade the system in between the full advisories
220. jipmg
How is it moving NNW?

Shoot. Probably too late to ask for the next installment of Pottery's Diary, "As the Wheel Turns." What sick joke is this NIDA after N(or)IDA??
Quoting thelmores:
RIP QuickScat!

Pains me we can spend "Billions" on nonsensical vote buying programs, but can't seem to have the wisdom to realize the importance of losing QuickScat!

We have absolutely no common sense left in Washington DC!
pains me to see next season having a hard time with confirmation of closed coc's for early dev. systems may prove to be quite challenging to say the least
Oceansat, ASCAT and the others will have to Man up and do the Work Load, its not the end all of things in that regard.

SEAWINDS




Scatterometry Text
Overview
Swath Data Sets

Data from polar orbiting satellites is observed and archived in swaths, relative to the satellite track, rather than a global grid. The pattern of observations is nearly regular, and forms a grid with axis parallel and perpicular to the satellite track. The spatial resolution of the data sets is usually 25 or 50 km.

Several forms of NSCAT gridded data will be available on-line. Links to descriptions of the data sets are available. The following general table outlines the available gridded data products. Further explanations of winds, pseudostresses, and stresses are available.
Information on Swath Data Sets
It does appear that a higher risk for severe weather in Central and South Florida is becoming a concern. In St. Cloud a 10 yr. old boy was hit by lightening this afternoon. I've noticed earlier today that these storms were producing tremendous lightening. This could be signs about just how much energy is in place across the penisula right now. Next Tuesday looks to be a major tornado outbreak for Florida.
i must be a sleep or am i seeing thing this cant be right could it Raw T # 7.7???




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 043200 UTC
Lat : 11:34:02 N Lon : 143:04:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 917.8mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.2 7.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +21.6C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
226. xcool


here we goo !! snow .this make 6 time models show snow imo
Quoting xcool:


here we goo !! snow .this make 6 time models show snow imo


Is the 348hour forecast still showing snow for NC?
228. xcool
168hr
Quoting xcool:
168hr


That last one you posted looks much different than the one you posted earlier today. Is that as far out as the forecast model goes?
230. xcool
i was just looking model show snow in n.y at 372 hr
Quoting xcool:
i was just looking model show snow in n.y at 372 hr


Can you get me a link to the 348 hour forecast? Is it still showing the snow moving into the Carolinas?
Quoting xcool:



SNOW BY 18Z GFS SLIDELL LA TO M.S


An update of this one.
Next week is looking to be an interesting week, GFS shows a massive squall line pounding Florida from the Panhandle down to Miami, even Cuba gets this..
It has been a long time since we had a well organized, contiguous squall line move all the way across the Fl. peninsula. Do you have a link to the GFS that is showing this? Thank you.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
It has been a long time since we had a well organized, contiguous squall line move all the way across the Fl. peninsula. Do you have a link to the GFS that is showing this? Thank you.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_162.shtml
Thanx Jeff, just bought a new anemometer and it would be nice to have a chance to try it out!
238. xcool
natrwalkn new update i just post it ,
239. xcool



here you go
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Thanx Jeff, just bought a new anemometer and it would be nice to have a chance to try it out!

No problem my friend.
Quoting xcool:
natrwalkn new update i just post it ,


Oh, ok. It only goes out 168 hours instead of 348. The one you posted earlier shows snow cover out to 348 hours I thought. Oh well. Just hoping for that southern snow to move up through the NC piedmont next week.
Yeah, that's it! Thanks xcool!!
243. xcool
you welcome any time.
244. xcool



Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ELEVEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 25 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1004 hPa) located at 10.7S 50.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving west at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.0S 48.5E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.5S 46.9E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.7S 43.0E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 40.5E - 20 kts (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================
Position is based on extrapolation from AMSU 0109z. Convection has flared up on infrared imagery during last night, but collapses over the last hours. Microwave shows that convection is restricted to the southwest quadrant.

Available Numerical Weather Prediction models show no major change for the intensity forecast. Environmental conditions seem less favorable for a re-intensification. Actually, if upper level conditions are good, lower level inflow is expected to weaken with a poor monsoon inflow that should now disappear within the next 24 hours and a tradewind inflow that should be disrupted by the northern tip of Madagascar. For now, none of the guidance deepen significantly the system.

Latest available Numerical Weather Prediction models remain in good agreement: The system is expected to move along the northwestern edge of a low tropospheric ridge and track west-southwest within the next 36 hours towards the Comoros Achipelago, and then southwestwards.

Heavy rains associated with gusty winds are expected today over the northern tip of Madagascar. Total rain amounts of 50 MM is possible with higher values over elevated areas (according to EUMETSAT and NOAA rain estimate products).

This is a weakening system that should therefore reach the Comoros Archipelago Thursday evening. A deterioration from east to west of the weather condition is possible tonight for this area.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON NIDA (T0922)
15:00 PM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nida (925 hPa) located at 11.6N 143.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knot with gusts of 140 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.0N 140.5E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.2N 139.3E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.5N 138.9E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)

---
JMA sets the intensity high.. 140 knot gusts is likely a 120 knot sustained winds in 1 min average.
This sounds like this Nida has the potential to be the worst of the season, if it continues the rapid intensification trend we have been seeing....
Marianas region seems to be the bad area for T7.0 systems this year.

This may become the fourth "Super" Typhoon categorize by the JMA
All cloudsat got today was the edge of BONGANI
OMG!!!
The ADT Dvorak number for Nida is T7.7 corresponding to 161 kts and 874 mb pressure!!! Nida is the strongest of this year IMO.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 080100 UTC
Lat : 12:07:09 N Lon : 142:38:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.3mb/161.0kt

Nida is on the front page of Navy site.
2009NOV25 080100 6.8 908.1/ +3.7 /134.8 6.5 7.1 7.9

There's an 8.0 reading for the raw data
253. IKE
New Orleans discussion...

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY OR MON. THIS ONE LOOKS
TO HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF THERMAL AND JET LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE MODEL USED HERE IS THE GFS. THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAK
WITH THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AND THE ECMWF IS WAY TOO STRONG. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING 20KT STRONGER WINDS THAT WHAT THE NASHVILLE UA
SOUNDING SHOWS AT 300MB. THAT IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT GREATER AT
THAT LEVEL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE TROUGH PULLING OUT QUICKER
SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH OUT ROUGHLY 6 HRS LATER. THIS SAME SOLUTION BRINGS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ATTM
WE CAN ONLY SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. STRONG
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY BUT NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. LOCAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE
CONCENTRATED AND MESHED OVER JUST THIS AREA OF THE GULF COAST ARE
SHOWING LOW END TS STRENGTH NUMBERS. IN DIRECT CONTRAST...THE
LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY COLD AIR AND SOME MIX OF
PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST
PORTION OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION IS KNOWN
ON THIS SYSTEM TO CONFIRM ITS SEVERE OR WINTER WX POTENTIAL AND
THESE VARIABLES WILL BE IRONED OUT AS MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
EVALUTATED.

Quoting Bobbyweather:
OMG!!!
The ADT Dvorak number for Nida is T7.7 corresponding to 161 kts and 874 mb pressure!!! Nida is the strongest of this year IMO.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 080100 UTC
Lat : 12:07:09 N Lon : 142:38:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.3mb/161.0kt

Nida is on the front page of Navy site.

NO Way, Nida looks good but 874mb?!? that almost breaks Tips record.
1011 Low Coming off the N coast of the Yucatan.


256. P451
Good Morning. If you can believe it... still tracking the remnants of Ida'Easter. She's been stretched and largely absorbed by a frontal system far out in the East Atlantic but still maintains enough structure to be picked out.

The NHC officially declared Ida's remnants dissipated into a trough back on November 19th but the system was (and is) still clearly discernible on satellite as an individual entity.

24 Hour Loop:



It would appear we're near the end of being able to objectively track this system as this final transition may end the ability to accurately point it out.

This is day 26 of this system.

257. IKE
6Z GFS at 138 hours...

258. P451
Another monster for the WPac

259. P451
nida



260. P451
Guam Radar

261. IKE
T-minus 138 hours and 20 minutes left...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
262. IKE
From Tallahassee,FL...

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED FROST AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN CASE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BECOMES MORE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS...THE SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM IN CASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

263. IKE
You can see the cold front in the northern plains. It's racing to the south and east...

e cen fl. still waiting maybe a sixeenth so far notice the plants are all doing well regardless the drought dew takes care of them will there be a early december tease in the sw carib?
265. IKE
Morn Ike.


Slow round here lately.
Sure glad we didnt get anything like Nida in the gom this season. Do ya think this is a year for snow down here?
267. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morn Ike.


Slow round here lately.
Sure glad we didnt get anything like Nida in the gom this season. Do ya think this is a year for snow down here?


I wouldn't bet on it happening.

It is possible though.

As Ringo sings...It Don't Come Easy.

Gobble, gobble to everyone.....
Nida is absolutely spectacular, perfect eye with -90C cloud tops all the way around. The banding on microwave is absolutely insane, Nida's feeder bands are more intense than the eyewalls of your average hurricane.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SUNRISE...PLANTATION...PEMBROKE
PINES...MIRAMAR...HOLLYWOOD...FORT LAUDERDALE...DAVIE...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 930 AM EST

* AT 731 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON POORLY DRAINED ROADS AND UNDERPASSES. IN ADDITION, OILY
STREETS FROM DRY WEATHER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY SLICK ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
INCLUDING MIRAMAR, PEMBROKE PINES, COOPER CITY, DAVIE, PLANTATION,
SUNRISE AND WESTON.

Just an hour earlier, we had:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE
COUNTY...EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. RAINFALL AROUND AND EAST OF HOMESTEAD
HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE PERSISTENTLY MOVED
OVER THE AREA. SOME STANDING WATER MAY BE ENCOUNTERED BY MOTORISTS
THIS MORNING AND CAUTION IS ADVISED BETWEEN HOMESTEAD AND NARANJA
ON U S 1 AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND AROUND THE HOMESTEAD MIAMI
SPEEDWAY.

While it's gonna be a tough commute up US 1, I'll take the rain any day!
Good Morning to all, Yes will be a tough day to get around but like you said we will take all we can get. I hear the grass cheering now HAPPY TURKEYDAY TO ALL
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Flood Watch:


Issued at: 6:39 AM EST 11/25/09, expires at: 6:45 PM EST 11/25/09

Flood Watch In effect through this evening,
The NWS in tampa bay area - ruskin fl has issued a
Flood watch for portions of southwest Florida and west central Florida, Including The Following areas, In Southwest Florida, Charlotte And Lee. In west central Florida, De soto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Manatee, pinellas, Polk And Sarasota.
Through this evening
Rainfall totals yesterday across portions of hillsborough and polk county ranged from 1 to 3 inches. Additional heavy and persistent rainfall today can be expected across much of the area especially from i 4 southward. Rainfall totals are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches with localized areas receiving up to 5 inches of rainfall. Flooding of streets and urban areas will be possible along with rises in creeks, Streams And Area rivers.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A flood watch means that flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.

NIDA on MIMIC interesting how it moved back on itself as it rapidly intensified.
Super Typhoon Nida
(4AM EST)13.1N 141.9E
Winds:175MPH
Movement:NW at 15MPH
Avg. Radius of TS-Winds:115 Miles
Small Tropical Cyclone
Pressure:925MB

Nasty line moving N up through the peninsula. HEAVY rain, much needed rain.


Quoting all4hurricanes:

NO Way, Nida looks good but 874mb?!? that almost breaks Tips record.


You have to remember, those are satellite estimates. This is a situation where aircraft data would really help.
Guam has really been a site of near misses this year. It's the closesed surface obs to Nida recently..

279. IKE
Man...what a view. Glad that's not in the GOM.
Morning Ike, You are so right. That in the gulf would be insane.
Happy Thanksgiving to all the WU bloggers.
What a storm in the Wpac.Hope that stays away from land.
Quoting IKE:
Man...what a view. Glad that's not in the GOM.

I so hope it becomes a fish very soon

Forecast
Hour Intensity
0- 125
12- 140
24- 145
36- 135
48- 125
72- 110
96- 95
120- 85
283. IKE
55 degrees here in the Florida panhandle with the sun fixing to break through as the clouds move east...

284. adb42
Nida has intensified to a 150 kt supertyphoon, and will intensify even further. The Northern Marianas caught a whiff of Nida as a 65 kt typhoon 24 hours ago, and can consider themselves extremely lucky that the burst of intensification (85 knots in 24 hours) did not occur a day earlier.
Nida is going to pass over a hot spot in about 12hrs and i guess she will intensify.
Raw T # all most 8.0???



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 133200 UTC
Lat : 12:54:28 N Lon : 141:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.0mb/161.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.9
What a wild morning down here in West Palm / Lake Worth:

Quoting IKE:
Man...what a view. Glad that's not in the GOM.

Amen to that. Nida is a beast of a storm. I hope she stays away from land, and all vessels at sea stay well out of the way.
Nida is incredible...That is one awesome looking storm!!!
Early on November 21 the JTWC reported that an area of convection had persisted within a monsoon trough about 880 km, (545 mi) to the southeast of Guam.[207][208] At this time the system was moving around the subtropical ridge of pressure, with an anticyclone over the cyclone helping the convection to consolidate over a broad and elongated low level circulation center which was located in an area of minimal vertical wind shear.[207][208] Later that morning a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was released as deep convection increased in orgainzation with multiple bands of convection starting to wrap into the developing low level circulation center. The system was then declared as a tropical depression by the JMA later that day before the JTWC followed suit early the next day, who assigned the designation of 26W to the depression.[209][210] On 23 November JTWC upgraded the system to a tropical storm[211], and JMA followed suit allocating the name Nida[212]. Later of the next day, JTWC reported that Nida rapidly intensifies into a category 1 typhoon equivalent. Next day JMA upgraded Nida to a Severe Tropical Storm[213] Intensification is anticipated until in the afternoon of November 25, JTWC reported that Nida intensifies from category 2 typhoon to a category 4 super typhoon. While JMA also upgraded it to a typhoon. On the same time an eye wall structure had been formed. During the evening of November 25, Nida futher intensified into an extremely intense Category 5 equivalent super typhoon according to the JTWC, attaining winds of 275 km/h (170 mph), the first storm of this intensity in the basin since Typhoon Chaba in 2004. Additionally, the JMA reported that the barometric pressure had decreased to 905 mbar, ranking Nida as the strongest storm to form during 2009 worldwide, eclipsing Hurricane Rick.
yes it sure is this think if that storm was in the gulf of MX right now
Quiet day on here. Beautiful weather in Atlanta. Looks like central FL is getting some much needed rain.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a wild morning down here in West Palm / Lake Worth:



We've finally got some rain! I forgot that grass was supposed to be green!.
Hi Grothar....it's been a while since we recieved so much rain in a short period of time. Looks like an all day event.
new blog

That cold front with the lOw is really coming hard on LOOP!