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Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2007

The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.

Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.


Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.


Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. FLBoy
Houston always has a protective Cap! And after that....they turn things over to the SPC!
That's the only "predictable" part of the Houston NWS!
Posted By: FLBoy at 8:15 AM GMT on June 24, 2007.

Houston always has a protective Cap! And after that....they turn things over to the SPC!
That's the only "predictable" part of the Houston NWS!


The last forecast I posted was from ImpactWeather...
FLboy I find this link very helpful in reviewing storm intensity with respect to date and time...

Link
504. FLBoy
ImpactWeather.....I never heard of them. If you want Texas weather forecasted straight...you're better off here or just check the SPC... If they're mentioning anything about Houston weather...which they mostly don't.
I have never seen an NWS office more screwed than Houston.
505. FLBoy
I know one met that works there....he'll tell anyone the same.
506. FLBoy
If I want Houston information I have to go over to Lake Charles or down to Corpus or West to SAT to get the deal.
ImpactWeather...

Link

I notice everyone has their strengths and weaknesses...what I always do is go around and read AFD's from Fort Worth, Austin, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Lake Charles, and New Orleans including here in Houston...I get a better overall picture of whats going on and what to expect...Houston is no different from any of the other offices...after being burned a few times in the past most of them are fairly reserved in their verbage...
508. FLBoy
I read every office from Brownsville around the Gulf to Jacksonville on the Atlantic....three times a day!
Yeah....I get a consensus.
I know one met that works there....he'll tell anyone the same.

When will they have '04 and '05 ready?
510. FLBoy
Houston? Good luck.
I only do that when there is tropical system in the Atlantic or Carribean...I want to see what every office is thinking...
512. FLBoy
I like to see what they're saying before anything is present. I find it helpful while running the models.
513. FLBoy
Lake Charles, Jackson and Mobile are the best offices on the upper Gulf Coast. Sometimes NO...but not too often.
I think Jackson is the best overall...Mobile is ok from time to time...Lake Charles has it moments for sometime they can be too brief and state the obvious
Another site which has many helpful links...

Link
516. FLBoy
The Disaster Center....I guess.
I usually skip Tampa for last and work Key West and Miami as well as Melbourne this time of year for the real info.
517. FLBoy
Jacksonville is too similar to Houston. They haven't seen a storm in so long.....they need one.
518. FLBoy
JAX even did a poor job on the fires.....which are still burning. Lousy job there.
Jacksonville does...Houston doesn't...don't think Houston will be ever ready for a 'Rita type' situation, can't speak for Jacksonville...
For real info go to Jackson, Austin, and sometimes Mobile...
521. FLBoy
Regarding Houston....I just check Dr. Frank's TV forecast if I need to know something there.
I don't believe the Houston/Galveston area are in danger this season. But anywhere South or East probably are this year.
522. FLBoy
Austin is like a repeater transmitter for SAT and Houston.
523. FLBoy


I think this year everyone needs to be very watchful...the worse-case scenario is a Alicia-type/Charlie-type situation or strengthing tropical system as it approaches the coast or a system which turns a little unexpectedly before landfall...
Freak rainstorm over my house this am. Can you spot it? (hint: its heading ENE) What's wierd is the IR shows nothing in my area. poop
526. FLBoy
Well....I doubt anything like that will or could be a surprise to our bloggers here.
527. FLBoy
There's a whole lot of collective storm tracking here.....
Not really...Austin doesn't always state the obvious, they show some emotion regarding the weather pattern, they admit when their wrong and will explain why, they discuss possible weather patterns beyond the normal forecast extended period...for it was the Austin office which gave me the heads-up on the forthcoming favorable pattern which led to the 3 week surge of activity during the 2004 hurricane season well in advance of any other NWS Office around the US coastline...
Minus the bickering and childish name-calling, many times I find this site very helpful regarding the tropics and its forecasts...nonetheless, there have many storms these past few years which has taken all of us totally offguard, regardless of our 24 hour a day watchfulness...
Keep an eye on this one when it gets to the Caribbean..

531. FLBoy
I track severe weather all over the US on other private localized forums. Mostly the Plains and SW Texas and New Mexico. I work every NWS office. I take what anyone is offering at the moment. But I have my reliable sources.
Tropics are usually easy after CONUS weather. Living in the Tropics all my life hasn't hindered me either.
Yea you can spot it...interestingly, I drove thru Tampa when in Florida...I didn't quite realize just how susceptible Tampa was to the storm surge of a major hurricane until I saw it with my own eyes...I've heard it talked about many times in the past but really don't get a good grasp until you actually see it for yourself...
533. FLBoy
Yep....Tampa is due.
Posted By: FLBoy at 9:35 AM GMT on June 24, 2007.

I track severe weather all over the US on other private localized forums. Mostly the Plains and SW Texas and new Mexico. I work every NWS office. I take what anyone is offering at the moment. But I have my reliable sources.
Tropics are usually easy after CONUS weather. Living in the Tropics all my life hasn't hindered me either.


So who is the most reliable source?
535. FLBoy
Little Barry made land-fall at Clearwater Beach. That's interesting.
FLBoy, Lucky, Lucky, Lucky...

Link
537. FLBoy
Friends in Norman, Oklahoma to start.....Where do you want to go?
538. FLBoy
I'm on the East Coast FL.....let Tampa have it. We've been through three eyes in two seasons....and two eyes within three weeks of each other...get out!
Norman NWS office appears to most effort in detailing weather events before and during the situation...its obvious they take their weather very serious...some other offices can get 'lazy' at times...when make my AFD rounds I always start with Norman's...
540. FLBoy
OK Randyman....you're really belly-up right now in your amateur status.
Norman, Oklahoma is the home of severe weather in the CONUS.
Come on back when you get all this figured out.
OK Randyman....you're really belly-up right now in your amateur status.
Norman, Oklahoma is the home of severe weather in the CONUS.
Come on back when you get all this figured out.


No need for me to go anywhere, no I'm not belly-up and yes I've had this figured out for quite a while now...like I said I was just simply stating what was obvious so its not a whole lot to figure out...don't know anyone there personally, however...
542. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

THE REAL KICKER WILL BE THE TROPICAL WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGGED TO
SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...
543. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE TIMING BUT STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT
INCREASING TO AROUND TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY AND 2.25 INCHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
544. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

WED-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTION OF
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH MOST OF CWA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING TWO INCHES AS LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE AFTER PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS. THIS SCENARIO
FAVORS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
good morning
the itcz is migrating northward, as can be seen south of the island chain. this will interact with an approaching wave which will bring blustery conditions the the s islabds during the next 24hrs. meanwhile the Eastern ALT tropical wave continues it's weatward track across the open atlantic. there ia also a line of waves ready to exit the african .coast
547. FLBoy
LMAO! I just called the NWS in Miami and asked the forecaster that wrote this morning's discussion how in the Hell he thought a Wave around 50W could make it to East Coast Florida by Tuesday. LOL!
My answer is that the wave moving through the Central Carib will influence a trough located to the North and drag the moisture down.
So it is not a real Wave....just an inverted trough with moisture.....we all hope!
There ya go!
548. FLBoy
Melbourne wouldn't answer the phone......
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin
Link
Alright, we get the picture FLBoy, you hold the 'pro status' around here with all of the connections...Well, I'll go for now and I guess I'll be back later when I figure all this out...meanwhile, LA & TX make note of this...

Tropics Are Quiet

Though some computer models had indicated that some of the moisture from Tropical Disturbance 12 in the western Caribbean Sea might track across the Gulf toward Texas and Louisiana, most of the thunderstorms have tracked westward into the east Pacific. Satellite shows very few clouds across the northwest Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected in this region.


2007 ImpactWeather Inc.

NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY
Link



devoid of any significant convection, naked swirl, but definitely fun to watch! :)

swirly things get my attention! LOL
Posted By: Randyman at 8:17 AM EDT on June 24, 2007.

the moisture from Tropical Disturbance 12 in the western Caribbean Sea


Uhhhmmm.. have I missed the last dozen TD's?
Thats a disturbance not a depression. They number depressions for historical references I think.
Morning all ☺

Good to see ya thel. Nice swirl you got there.

Can not believe we do not have the GHCC back yet. That hurts...
Thanks WPB! didn't know that nor had I ever noticed the reference before
thelmores,
swirly things get my attention too but when I try to bring up the area you are talking about, I only see high level clouds moving one way and some very low clouds moving the other way....in short.. somethings just crossing paths at different levels.. or it seems to me..
so.. NO swirly can I see but what you drew in there.
update later..oops.. my bad.. NOW i see more swirly there..
hummmmmmmmmm
That's the same low that was over by the coast. Supposedly moving out to sea, waters are cool. Lots of shear. At least that was true a couple days of ago.
Morning all. I wil be in and out today. Also interesting picture thelmores it is fun to watch.
I'll second that.
wind shear: Link
from the nhc: 000
AXNT20 KNHC 241039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR 12N19W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4N-14N BETWEEN 20W-28W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 18W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WEAK
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 46W-49W. A SIMILAR
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W S OF
14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS VOID OF A CLEAR SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. DUE TO LACK OF
SFC OBS IN THE VICINITY...POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N30W 5N40W 6N50W 8N60W. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-37W. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AROUND A NOW DISSIPATED SFC HIGH
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...HOWEVER
REMNANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXIST OVER THE
WESTERN GULF FROM 22N-25N WEST OF 97W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE NW GULF BY FLOW AROUND
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS TRANQUIL UNDER DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE SW GULF AND LIGHT WINDS IN
THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 14N87W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS RESULTED IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...S OF
10S BETWEEN 76W-79W...FROM A SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA. STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1017MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR
29N74W.
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS
TRIGGERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 68W-70W AND FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THIS
LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 54W-62W N OF 26N. THE LATEST
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A
PAIR OF 1028 MB SFC HIGHS ARE OVER THE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N35W AND 33N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF 50W. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM CUBA NE ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON
patrap you still here?
look at thta weird outlfow over cuba: Link
The cooling that has occurred over the last week along the equator in the Pacific amazes me (I put this in an animation to make it easier to compare):

Micheal it appears la nina is getting worse. If it was to peak before september and then decrease which I find unlikley, we would be ok.
Guys, be happy it is June and quiet. The way the pattern is beginning to take shape, we may be in for an ugly August-September.
The cooling that has occurred over the last week along the equator in the Pacific amazes me (I put this in an animation to make it easier to compare):

STL and you think this will amount to what?
cmc runs idicating weak sfc low entering the gom sometime next week. Could be depression if it actually happend but nothing more. also no other models agree with this.
we are happy nash. And you are most definetly right it could be worse for the western gom more than it was in 05 due to the models saying that the bm high will ridge out and stay that way.
Ngps and gfs idndicating a sharp decrease in shear over the tropics by thursday or wednesday. Also they are showing decrease in strong upper level trade winds over the pacific indicating a transition from neutral to more la nina conditions. The shear decrease on our side seconds that.
What it may amount to 23 is that there has been a dramatic rise in the SOI, which is 10+. The equatorial Pacific is cooling rapidly, which is a sign of La Nina taking shape. Weaker trade winds across the ATL.
I second that nash. Also gfs 950 mb vorciticty showing psbl development of florida low. However that can only happen if it survives the next two days until shear begins falling.
You are still a skeptic... LOL... I use actual data - look at how much the equatorial Pacific has cooled, especially in the Nino 3.4 region (central Pacific), and the ESPI and SOI strongly support that, at -1.22 and +12.1 respectively (and the SOI is one of the most significant ENSO indicators; Australia in fact uses that to define ENSO events; the BOM also says that La Nina is likely, the warming according to them was likely just a temporary thing).

For reference, here are the Nino regions (I could even overlay this onto the image above to make it easier to compare):



Cooling is even evident out to 160E on the loop I posted above - even the Nino 4 region has cooled, the only one that hasn't dropped below zero since El Nino dissipated. The models are likely right too because of this observation and the general consensus is for a La Nina (just like when you look at them to see if they are forecasting a storm to develop, you look for consensus instead of locking onto only one of them).
Great explanation STL. The data pretty much points to a reversal of last season. Doesn't automatically mean a ton of storms, but it will make conditions ripe for them to form.
What iam watching closely is sst's across the atlantic like the MDR region which is only running slightly above normal in most areas.Infact Most of the atlantic is well below the very warm values we have seen in the last 2- 3 hurricane seasons.

All this leads me to think that the UKMET office and CPC are on to something and we indeed may not see as an active season as thought before.Adrian
Ive just noticed that a nice pool of warm water has just reached in the GOM, which wasnt there a few days ago.
It all means the same thing, that the climate forecasts were right and we are going to be in for real trouble this possibly worse than 05. I am stocking up on supplies and hoping for the best. For those of you who live in Florida good luck. The good news is that when storms impact florida they can be intense but usally are cat 1s and 2s and sometimes weak threes. In o4 you were unlucky for intense storms but the bm high should protect Florida this year.
hmm. Could be adrian however ssts have been warming up quickly. They could still get to be as high if not higher than 05.
Hey y'all!
hey 1900
gotta run be back soon.
Hey 1900:)
Even 2006 ended up with the second warmest SSTs on record, despite a very strong Bermuda High in June and July (often exceeding 1040 mb, meaning very strong trade winds). I have no idea what could possibly cause SSTs to cool to below normal levels, at least not any normal climate pattern (outside of planetwide catastrophes). And there was a study that said that in the past ENSO, not SSTs, were a big factor in Atlantic hurricane activity, so the lack of an El Nino should mean that we will have a season similar to the post-1995 norm even if SSTs do cool.
Good Morning. Nice cloud cover over Trinidad now. Humidity still low at 66. Pres. 1013 steady. Some distant rumblings to the deep south of me .Looking forward to being innundated !
Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 11:04 AM EDT on June 24, 2007. (hide)
hmm. Could be adrian however ssts have been warming up quickly. They could still get to be as high if not higher than 05.

Higher then 2005...Not a chance the SST'S that were in place in 2005 were incredible.

gg
Also, 1996 had below normal SSTs in the MDR (note that this was before any major storms developed so you are not seeing upwelling from storms):



And while it wasn't really active with 13 storms, 9 of those storms were hurricanes and 6 were major hurricanes - a far more powerful season than 2005 when you consider the storm-hurricane/major hurricane ratio (2005 = 28, 15, 7, the last is only one more major that 1996 despite the fact that 1996 had less than half as many storms).
The heat potential was an amazing sight to see in 2005.

ssts
Guyana weather now
Thunderstorms and rain
temp 75
press 1014
H23 what does it look like right know The GOM?
Doldrums raise SST about faster than anything..

current doldrums...
once the trade winds decrease in the atlantic you will see surface temps climbing. Still a ways to go until the meat of the season.
Current heat potential Link
2006 Heat potential Link
2005 Heat potential Link
Trolling the weather news today death tolls were pretty high in Pakastan~ over 200 due to gales & thunderstorms. India~ over 120 with that noname storm. China is having a lotta problems around the 3 gorges dam with record rain. Nasa had just released a study how that monstrosity has changed the local climate there. Articles are in my blog.
guys these strong waves coming off the coast of africa will fizzle when it hits the cooler water...its just not time guys and most of the waves are still below 10 degrees...i would give this area another 6 weeks....the shear is very strong coming off of s america and if anything tried to develop near the winward islands it would be ripped apart...guys i can be sure when i say this we are in for a slow late hurricane season for 2007..once again the experts if you want to call them that blew it again...no way their will be 23 storms this year...they are lucky if we have 9...also about lanina whoever said it was strong its not guys its a very week la nina and i dont think it will have much to do with our hurricane season this year...i will be back on if anything changes guys but i just dont see this pattern moving out anytime soon...we are safe through at least mid july is the way i see it now..the shear will not slacken up anytime soon....anyone on here especially the newbies if you have any questions feel free to email me and i will be glad to answer them for you...StormKat
WPBHurricane05: Thank you for posting that.
I feel safe again. Thanks StormKat.
Website from which the data was retrieved Link
the gulf is already catching up to 2005 in temps.

2007 Gulf SST

2005 Gulf SSTs
y/w WPB HURRICANE just dont want you guys to get the people excited for a few little blobs...you have to look at the whole equation when you are forecasting the tropics..i have tons of experience guy ill be happy to share with you....just be patient....StormKat
Once again Stormkat speaks with absolutely no clue as to what the next 6-8 weeks will hold.
SK- You said experts predicted 23 named systems. Which experts would those be? I haven't seen any above 17.
One more point SK- Do you remember 2004? Seems like everyone forgets that year and only compares 2005. 2004 didn't have squat until August. Then all hell broke loose.
And that was a neutral ENSO year.
WPB: Thanks for the link i booked marked it.
The Ringo: Maybe I am looking at them 2 heat maps wrong but it kinda looks a little warmer than 2005 or have i got it all wrong. Still in learning mode. Thanks Sheri
The SSt's out in the EATL are indeed cooler, but it really doesn't mean anything.

Look at the SST's in the Caribbean and Gulf. Even if the SST's are marginal at best in the EATL, once a tropical wave reaches about 60W it will reach much warmer waters that are plenty warm enough to support deepening.

The one variable that will or will not save our bacon is wind shear.
SST Anomalies in 2005 Link
SST Anomalies now Link

For those interested here is the website I found those images.
Believe me.... We are all hoping for a quiet season in terms of storms not threatening land. I'll take a season of 20 storms that all curve harmlessly out to sea.
Great point JP. Many of those storms began west of 60W.
With many of the models putting a halt on the troughs diving down and sweeping across the ATL, the A/B High may be setting up shop a couple of weeks earlier than normal. Where it sets up and how strong it is will be very important.
The Ringo: Maybe I am looking at them 2 heat maps wrong but it kinda looks a little warmer than 2005 or have i got it all wrong. Still in learning mode. Thanks Sheri

2007 image looks cooler in the middle area of the gulf than 2005. But there's more concentrated heat along the edges. Which leads me to believe that the drought is starting to have an impact on the gulf and the temps are bleeding into it from the periphery.
SST must be warming up in the Atlantic, 89 with a heat index of 95 in West Palm.
look back at 2005 and see how many storms of the 28 developed in the Tropical Atlantic, there werent many

That is very true; in fact, while most forecasts were below the actual activity for 2005, Tropical Storm Risk greatly overforecast the activity in the MDR (on page 5) because not many storms developed there, despite the fact that the greatest SST anomalies were concentrated there.
SST's as of today---

Clearwater Beach, FL- 87 degrees
Naples, FL- 88 degrees
Venice, FL- 85 degrees

Very warm and rising along the west coast of FL. Temps at some of the buoys in the central Gulf are hovering around 83-84 degrees.
Pretty sobering thought considering the SST's are usually at their warmest come mid August. Still two more months of heat potential before then....

So again, SST's are important yes... Not just the EATL, but more importantly, the GOMEX and Caribbean, which at this rate will be bath water come August.
625. IKE
Speaking about no troughs...this from the NO extended...

"Long term...
high over Gulf will break down and moist flow axis will be
displaced north. Will maintain chance probability of precipitation Wednesday through Sat.
GFS deepens a trough over the East Coast and bring a front through
the area late Saturday.
Will maintain near normal probability of precipitation and temperatures
over next weekend for now.
right now the loop current is stronger in the west caribbean than the gulf. Which will probably concentrate more heat in the caribbean. Watch for this area to build sst's.

2007 loop current


2005 loop current
Afternoon all ☺

The sea temps are really warming quickly. The maps in my blog don't show much of the mdr, but you can clearly see that the western portion of the Atlantic is much warmer then it has been over the past several years. Just a month ago much of this area was cooler then the past few years.
Hopefully the Gulf maps from John Hopkins will get on to the same scale soon.
Hey there SJ. What will be interesting to see is how deep will these warm SST's go.
Good to see ya nash

The depth will be interesting to see, although I would think that the depth of the heat is only critical depending on the storm. I would think that a storm moving over about 15 to 18 mph would not require the same depth as a slower storm would.
GOM WAVCIS 60 hour SST's model..and more..

Link
True SJ. Storms with weak steering currents that sit in place for a bit will do more upwelling than a storm moving at a pretty good clip.

It's almost like we are looking at a ticking time bomb. I expect we will be seeing several invests come late July moving forward.
Ok guys. Gotta run for the day. Have a great rest of your weekend and happy forecasting:-)

Let's see what the next couple of weeks brings for us....
As far as the SSTs go, yes it is getting dangerously warm if a well developed system were to get over these SSTs. Although these waters were pretty warm last year and the shear managed to keep everything in check. Will have to see how the season progresses. Wait and see as usually...
This map shows how deep waters of at least 26C extend:



For comparison, this is 2005:

Bingo SJ. Ok, I know I am leaving, but one more post:-)

I believe the biggest factor in the season is the upper level winds. It doesn't matter if SST's are running in the mid 70's or mid 90's. If shear is hostile, game over.

If the shear relaxes for an extended period of time in the trouble spots especially within the Herbert box, look out.
So 50 to 100m across much of the Carib and S Atl?
Temps at 100M deep

East gulf has got so hot from the persistant doldrums there the last few weeks. Little wind = little evaperation= alotta warming.

2005~ we didn't see much develop in the mid Atlantic because of the outragous SAL. It would choke waves & keep them naked til they got closer, shook the dust & formed. SAL didn't save us last year, the shear did as it ripped up what was left of the naked swirls.

Nash~ You were refuring to 2005 as the neutral year?? 2004 was an El Nio year...
SE La. true color visible 1KM MODIS image..yesterday, with Aircraft contrails. Link
Pretty damn similar map.
the mjo is starting to show up again.
we were quiet last 2 weeks because the mjo was over in india.

Madden-julian oscillation.
Start with this frame..then nav forward to see the wave emerge...Link
MJO forecast makes your point even better. It's not real suprising things aren't active right now.
What does MJO stand for?
What is the mjo?
MJO (click to read more):

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale.

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where convection is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days.

The MJO is also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, 30-60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.

Atmospheric patterns
There are distinct patterns of lower-level and upper-level atmospheric circulation anomalies which accompany the MJO-related pattern of tropical rainfall. These circulation features extend around the globe and are not confined to only the eastern hemisphere.

There is strong year-to-year (interannual) variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 - 12 months prior to the peaks of El Nio episodes, while weak MJO activity is typically associated with La Nia years. Globally, the interannual variability of the MJO is most determined by atmospheric internal dynamics.

The phase of the MJO is also extremely important for assessing whether conditions are conducive to tropical storm development over the tropical and subtropical North Pacific and North Atlantic ocean basins. For example, MJO-related descending motion over the tropical Atlantic is not favorable for tropical storm development, whereas MJO-related ascending motion over the North Atlantic is quite favorable for tropical storm development. The MJO is monitored routinely by both the USA National Hurricane Center and the USA Climate Prediction Center during the Atlantic hurricane (tropical cyclone) season to aid in anticipating periods of relative activity or inactivity.
The entire atlantic as whole is running only slightly warmer then average and also well below the warm values we have seen in the last 3 years.SST'S are very important towards tropical cylone development but at the same its only a small piece of things that have to be in place for a tropical cyclone to flurish.Adrian
Thank You MichaelSTL. I can usually figure the acronyms out (SAL, etc.)but that one had me stumped.
This is as exciting as it gets here in So Cal for late June.

GFS solutions still want to drop a cold front south through the
area for late week and into the weekend. With 580 dam heights or
higher at 500 mb...no real threat of precipitation except maybe
some drizzle out of the marine layer. Confidence remains low in
the frontal boundary making it this far south. Better agreement is
establishing between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions...but for now
expect a persistent cooler trend for late week and next weekend
relative to the early part of this week with marine layer being
quite extensive.
Good Afternoon all anything exciting going on
Ya I live on the west coast of Flirida, water temps have warmed up dramatically from a few weeks ago, the water feels like its 90 already, although bouys currently are reading about 87 for the temp.


Still water temps were below average only 3 weeks ago, now that are above average.

The UKMET is bull*hit, if we do have a below average season, it won't be from a lack of warm water.


And of course instead of using their brain they follow what ever the model says like puppets.
Correct Jed. Their forecast would have made more sense had they said something like "the trade winds will remain strong due to a very strong High Pressure". The best they could do was SST's. Pretty sad.
Hello H2O, JED, and NASH. I hope your having a nice Sunday.
Do you see any hope of rain for the central West coast of Florida? We are very dry here!! Thanks for any info!!
I have heard a wave is coming to SE Fl. around Wednesday. Is that true? And will it give us any rain here in hernando county?
Middle of the week is our next best chance. High pressure is forecast to lift northward which will allow for a more typical flow with our afternoon seabreeze. Otherwise, hot and nasty.
Exactly, I mean common I'm 16 years old and Ive known that forever, in fact, I would have noticed their big error even when I was 13.


Its sad because I'm sure they have the ability to think for themselves, but instead, they shut down their brains and let the computer models take control as head meteorologist.


Whats the point of evening having a meteorologist or going through all the education to become one if the computer models are so great. Eexactly, they are NOT gods, they are just forecasting tools, I can make a better forecast then then without using any computer guidance, because I would use straight up common sense and put to use what I actually learned in becoming a meteorologist to make a forecast.


I'm sure these guys have the standerd for knowledge as we do for a meteorologist, but what good is a smart mind and what good is knowledge unless you put it to use.


Knowledge without works is dead, and I'm sick of seing meterologists being pawns of computers. Good thing there are still meteorologists that don't worship them and use them as tools and actually use their knowledge.


There is a local guy here that does it, Denis Philips if anyone knows who that is, and guess what? He is a lot more accurate then the other guys that follow what the models always say on the other stations.
Thanks Nash!:) All of our ponds and lakes are dry here. The little bit of rain that comes this way, seems to miss my area. I guess I am in the dome. LOL!

I agree that the gom water feels very warm, and if trade winds lighten up, things may be changing soon. What are your thoughts on the B high set up for this year?
hope ya have nice sunday too, weather is hot but great, once you get used to the nasty heat here, Florida summers are just as great as any time of year, actually better in my oppinion cause its the wet season.
Yea JED I hear ya. I do enjoy Fl. summers, yet now that I am older, the heat seems to get to me more! I have lived in Fl. all my life. I remember being in St. Pete. in the fifties, when i was young, and I ran around enjoying the heat all day. We always seemed to get those afternoon thunderstorms that cooled things off abit.
the upper low east of fl. still has a chance to descend to the surface and become tropical in nature. It has been known to happen.
hi all

Just a quick stop in on a quiet day. I was just looking at various links and saw that the quikscat link is down and the GHCC site is still down as well. Took a look at buoy 42057 and noticed that there are only 4 data sets displayed ( no pressure, wave direction etc. )

I hope that buoy is not beginning to fail as this would leave only one of three working in the central and NW Caribbean ( the Yucatan buoy ). Seems as if we are slowly but surely being cut off LOL
kman~ I hear ya on the cut off part. I started going through the different routes & sources links I got on quiksat.. Hit on the 3rd one, through nexsat. Looks up to date but nexsat has a limited range.

It does catch the swirl off FL nicely
I dont remember last June being this HOT! Today in Ft Myers, no wind and 93! Feels like 100...Where are the afternoon T-storms when ya need them...
Did I miss something that disturbance in the w Car. is gone.
I hear you DoveflowerFtMyers. Its been warm on the east coast of Florida also. Miami seems to be hogging all the rain from the rest of the state.
Hello SW, it looks like La Nina may be here. Any thoughts?
I posted this earlier; it shows the dramatic cooling over just the last week - and everywhere along the equator:



The positive SOI may have finally done it; before it was still negative yet there was cooling in the eastern Pacific; an article that somebody posted yesterday said that strong La Ninas start developing in the far eastern Pacific, then move out into the central Pacific; and because the CPC uses the Nino 3.4 anomalies (central Pacific), that means that a La Nina could have been underway for many months before it is declared official (in contrast, El Ninos and weaker La Ninas typically start developing in the Nino 3.4 region).
Thanks for the info SW and Michael. I feel that July may show some changes in the tropics. Aug. and Sept. might get interesting! I sure hope any storms that form are fish storms! We can only hope. It is always good to stay informed, and prepared! I hope everyone does that.
Another article on Bill Proenza in Ft Lauderdale Sun Sentienal this morning ...front page. And our very own: Dr Jeff Masters was quoted and our Weather Underground was mentioned!!! good reading for the on-going saga!!!

haven't looked around yet...assuming it is still quite in the tropics this afternoon.

have a great evening.
Link

Im under a sever thunder storm warning..County is big so its not here YET.Flooding has reported in the mountains.
10 inches of rain in half a day..These storms are so slow...Its getting bad here, my power might go off.
Good afternoon all. Just checking in to confirm "Nothing is brewing". Nice day for boating here in the Caymans.
Radar estimates of 10 inches, those counties were under a sever drought, but thats too much
Statement as of 5:33 PM EDT on June 24, 2007


The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Wilkes County in northwest North Carolina

* until 630 PM EDT

* at 530 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
Wilbar... and moving east at 10 mph.

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly cloud
to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter...
preferably inside a strong building but away from windows.

Please send your reports of penny or larger sized hail... as well as
wind damage... including trees or large limbs downed by calling the
National Weather Service toll free at... 1... 8 6 6... 2 1 5... 4 3 2 4.

Lat... Lon 3626 8142 3618 8142 3616 8107 3629 8107

Thats where i live
Im getting off.The winds are picking up.I dont want the lightning to run on my laptop.
Here's a link to that story about Proenza that seflgamms mentioned...
The BarometerBob show with the NHC director Bill Proenza's interview

Link
I was in Orlando this weekend and Channel 9 meteorologist Julie Watkin said later this week Florida would be inundated in a tropical wave. Could this wave develop into anything?
C2News this is the wave that they say will influence our weather:



I don't even think the wave will make it here.
There is a major brushfire in Lake County, FL near Clermont its getting really bad.
But to answer your question, I doubt it will develop.
I will try to post some pictures we need rain badly.
Hey all...Just cheking in before dinner and nice to see all the chat with regard to the "set-up" patterns for the real season; here is my question. At present, the Jet Stream is running basically accross the Northern US border with Canada, and , I remember that it had dipped way down South last year near the Gulf around August/September contributing to the shear values during the peak of the season. How much variability typically occurs in the position of the jet stream during the summer months and does it also "drop down" come August/September as the first winter trofs begin to sweep down?..I could look it up but I know someone on here will have the quick answer.....
C2news,that is the wave I asked about earlier. I am also wondering about it.
From what I here weathermanwannabe is that the weather pattern we see in mid/late July will stick with us for the entire summer.
I wonder why some are saying it will come over fl.?
Posted By: FLBoy at 6:53 AM EDT on June 24, 2007.
LMAO! I just called the NWS in Miami and asked the forecaster that wrote this morning's discussion how in the Hell he thought a Wave around 50W could make it to East Coast Florida by Tuesday. LOL!
My answer is that the wave moving through the Central Carib will influence a trough located to the North and drag the moisture down.
So it is not a real Wave....just an inverted trough with moisture.....we all hope!
There ya go!
Evening all. Two areas of disturbed weather now forming on in the epac and one trying to form in the gom. From the nhc: 000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242213
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUN 24 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical weather disscusion(note the low off the coast of florida has not dissapated: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
BEST AREA OF ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
NEAR 14N20W WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID
LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING MORE TO THE
SW TO AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR 5N26W. THE QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM 10 HOURS AGO SHOWED SOME SLY FLOW AND CYCLONIC TURNING
E OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. IN ADDITION...SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM
THIS MORNING JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE N AND E
SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BE ELONGATED MORE TO
SW TO NEAR 5N26W...AND MAY NEED TO BE REPOSITIONED/REORIENTED
MORE TO THE W ON THE UPCOMING ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS REMAINS
A FAIRLY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE THAT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETECT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NELY WINDS JUST W OF THE
AXIS WERE REPORTED BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS THIS MORNING HOWEVER.
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WEAK CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N
TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W S
OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CONVECTION
OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL SE WINDS AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM CURACAO HINTED THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N23W 7N30W 5N36W 9N52W
7N59W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W
AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...PROMPTING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EVIDENT
FURTHER S NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC
ACROSS THE SRN GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 22N. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN DAMPEN OUT...ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NRN GULF WATERS THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SOMEWHAT OVER THE SW GULF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BETWEEN WEAK LOW
PRES OVER SRN MEXICO AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF WILL INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN ATLC THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN...PROVIDING MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN
BASIN...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED EXCEPT FOR ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE ATLC EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING POSSIBLE FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE THE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLC. UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N70W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. FURTHER E...UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W. COPIOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOTED IN THE SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS. SURFACE HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED ROUGHLY 300
NM W OF THE AZORES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALLOWING
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS WELL. E OF 50W...DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR N OF 15N ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NEAR
27N40W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE W OF THE CANARIES NEAR 27N24W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



Also pacific disturbance could help to strengthen gulf disturbance. This disturbance is acting like barry and is forming under high shear. If it gains organization, an sfc low, and persists under the shear until it decrease it could psbl be a storm. However being that shear is high and the atmosphere is surpress i doubt it.




shear


LOL wpb!
Those Sea breezes are at it again.
storm
A couple of things-
The bashing of UKMET is totally uncalled for, and is horsemanure of the worst kind. Someone on here said that they could not possibly believe anything about the weather that was not stated by a US weather person. Give us a break. The UKMET forecast is based on sound science, using the very latest in technology. ( unlike some other places ) And to state that the uk mets are allowing computers to provide the forecast, with no input from mets. is more manure. How different is their foresast to the US forecast anyway. ?? National Pride and all that is OK, just dont slam everyone else. Wit on the results of the predictions BEFORE you start bull hitting people.
texascanecaster

Pls size your images. You are stretching the blog

Thanks
pottery2- Someone also said that they don't get hit by hurricanes so what do they know. Dr. William Gray lives in Colorado. And in fact the UK gets the remnants of some hurricanes (mostly fish storms).
Pottery who the heck said that? That is biased and slightly racist in a sense. Why would somebody say that? Forecasts by other gencies are an important part in our agencies overall forecasts and those from other agencies are better than ours at times.
Sorry kman will use fewer but How do I resize them? do I click modify comment and also who is saying this bs?
Thanks WPB...Seems like all of the major players/factors are falling in place and I believe that shear values (which are relatively variable from week to week)and the location of the Bermuda High (which will set in place for the remainder of the season come July)will, again, be the most important factors to watch come August and September in terms of formation and threats to the US..
Yeah, WPB, its a bit like saying that American forecasters cant possiby know about weather on the African west coast.
but How do I resize them?

To resize an image, add width=640 between the last quote and the greater than sign at the end of the image code, like this:

(img src="image url" width=640)

That will also auto size the height to match the change in width (of course, use less-than and greater-than signs in place of the parenthesis). You can resize images in posts that you already made with Modify Comment as well.
707. ryang
Hey Pottery, You getting rain??
708. ryang
The GFS shows a weak low pressure system in the SW Caribbean in a couple of days...Link
Ryang. No rain !! Cloudy day, some blustery conditions this am. Some rumblings from the south at noon, and now is very still cloud high up, with a gentle ne wind at the surface. Strange. Press 1013 rising !!
710. ryang
Blog Hole?
711. ryang
Pottery... It's pouring here now...

LOL... You can tell shear is killing the wave...
Ryang, the wave seems to have changed direction to more northerly from west, and I expect the cloud over Venezuela will pull up north too, so I'm still hoping for some. It's been dry for 2 weeks almost
Its running into heavy SAL too. It would be worse weather if it wasnt.
Enjoy the showers !!!!
Thanks micheal resizing.
looks like it worked
716. ryang
Yeah... If not for shear too...
Something really bizzare is happening here. Put up low and high level winds and you will see that a ull has formed over the florida surface low and yet th sfc low is also still there. The NHC said it would dissapte today but that isn't happening. Link
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ650-651-242345-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0145.070624T2252Z-070624T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
653 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HALLANDALE NORTH TO DEERFIELD BEACH OUT TO 20
NM

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 653 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS NEAR
HALLANDALE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2626 7978 2600 7979 2596 7995 2595 8001
2598 8008 2605 8008 2608 8012 2617 8010

$$

70/DD
Shear and SAL. A Storm's Worst Nightmare. We should sell; the rights of that to Hollywood. I get to be Shear, You get to be....oh, wait a minute, I think we need Ladies to play those parts !
720. Alec
Nothing is written in stone JFYI!...LOL
721. ryang
LOL Pottery...
Or hows about The Shear And SAL Show. ( Dont say it ,you will bite off a piece of yr tongue )
A few interesting things here first my hwo: Link
Second this the miam hwo: Link

It would appear that the nws sucpects that the tropical wave or some other feature could form a tropical disturbance and increase thunderstorm chances across the gulf coast.
Tornado watch Link
GOM IR Loop

Link
Alex, yr. wrong. Everything a certaian person says on this blog, is written in stone. Fortunately, he has not been around lately. LOL
NICE ONE PAT>
Fortunately, he has not been around lately. LOL

Stormkat = Stormtop.
729. ryang
Stormtop AKA stormkat Pottery??
Hey, where did it go ?
731. RL3AO
Has anyone else noticed that Montana and Idaho seem to have had alot of severe weather this year?
732. Alec
Posted By: pottery2 at 7:20 PM EDT on June 24, 2007.

Alex, yr. wrong


First of all, call me by my name and second of all Michael is right!LOL
733. ryang
LOL... He was around today...
I'm missing something here, right ??
736. Alec
I guess so...

AleC, sorry about that, my dear fellow. A slip of the index . I take it that you are somehow related to the illustrious Stormtop, himself ?
738. Alec
Wow...you remember that time when all thought I was stormtop?LOL
LOL micheal and PATRAP! Seen that one before patrap still funny though. Also Stormtop A.K.A stormkat was on here TODAY?!? When? Also shout out if you watched deadliest catch or know of the show. Comepletley random question.
Or hows about The Shear And SAL Show. ( Dont say it ,you will bite off a piece of yr tongue )
LOL pottery2!
Here is his comment:

Posted By: stormkat at 10:41 AM CDT on June 24, 2007.

guys these strong waves coming off the coast of africa will fizzle when it hits the cooler water...its just not time guys and most of the waves are still below 10 degrees...i would give this area another 6 weeks....the shear is very strong coming off of s america and if anything tried to develop near the winward islands it would be ripped apart...guys i can be sure when i say this we are in for a slow late hurricane season for 2007..once again the experts if you want to call them that blew it again...no way their will be 23 storms this year...they are lucky if we have 9...also about lanina whoever said it was strong its not guys its a very week la nina and i dont think it will have much to do with our hurricane season this year...i will be back on if anything changes guys but i just dont see this pattern moving out anytime soon...we are safe through at least mid july is the way i see it now..the shear will not slacken up anytime soon....anyone on here especially the newbies if you have any questions feel free to email me and i will be glad to answer them for you...StormKat


He has no idea what he is talking about...
Sig rules on the Northwestern

6
I'm Sorry for the deja vu post. This machine does me that
Micheal... WTH IS HE TALKING ABOUT!?!?!?! THIS GUY HASN'T GOT A CLUE! One of my principals is that if you don't know about something than talking about it like you do makes you and idiot! Just ask for advice don't go talking like you are king of the world if you don't even know what you are talking about!
Thank you patrap and yes he does. He is my favorite captain and his boat is also my favorite. I hope that the show is continued next year and that this wasn't the end. It has been my absolute favorite since I started watching it two years ago.
748. Alec
texas, you will get to know the good ones in here if you're around long enough....
Also does stormkat think we don't know anything about weather or is he just that stupid?! I have met people like that in my life and they drive me nuts. Also where on earth does he get 23 storms from and why does he sound like he would wan't there to be more storms. If what he was saying was actually what had been predicted and what was happening I would be overjoyed.
Sig on The Tonight Show...Link
Kentucky storm report:

1830 UNK ADAIRVILLE LOGAN KY 3667 8685 THE TOP STORY OF A TWO STORY BUSINESS BUILDING ON MAIN STREET WAS BLOWN 75 TO 100 YARDS AWAY FROM THE BASE OF THE BUILDING. THE DAMAGED SECTION WAS A WOOD FRAME AND SHE (LMK)

I hope that nobody was in that building when that happened...
Does anyone notice what appears to be an ULL swirling due east of Florida/NE of the Bahama in the Altlantic?....You can see it on the RGB/Water vapor loops where is clearly shows that it is an extremely dry airmass surrounded by moisture....Might be nothing (It is not discussed at all by NHC) but you never know this time of year as it slowly drifts east of the next 3-4 days...Might be something to watch in about a week if a) it it still there, b) it deepens, c) and convection can begin to develop.....On second thought, I might be grasping for straws here after having had a few beers with dinner!........See everyone tommorow...
Hello
Wind shear may reestablish, but three days out upper level winds should be pretty much gone.
Thanks pat. And Alec I have been reading the blog for two years I only just now joined it. I have heard all about this guy and seen a couple of his comments but when someone says stuff like this is still makes me mad even if I know the kind of guy he is.
Silly some are!! Will the SAL be a problem again this year? Any thoughts?
757. Alec
caster....I have been debating w/stormtop since 2005...know his online personality...
A: What is the deal with comments showing up in the wrong places instead of at the top. B: yes weatherrman saw it very strange. And C: 4 real micheal because they probabaly would have been severly injured or killed.
Thank you know more about him than I do. Is he the "I must know more than you becuase I just do type"?
Excumse Alec typo. Meant to say you know more about him than I do.
The SAL really wasn't the main reason why last year was so inactive; that was because of El Nino; 2005 was also plauged by big SAL outbreaks which contributed to many storms developing in the western Atlantic - where they could then become stronger (warmer water) and have higher chances of hitting land; by comparison, 2004 was a classic Cape Verde season with most storms developing off Africa (1995 was also one, except the steering currents in 1995 were like last year).
A question for all. SAL refers to the african dust levels in the atmosphere as seen on the Cimiss page correct?
763. Alec
caster, Thats the primary reason why I even came to WUG and sign up.....to debate his forecasts.....Emily was my first storm on here.
What is the deal with comments showing up in the wrong places instead of at the top

Exactly what do you mean by that? The most recent comments appear at the bottom (as you would typically read from top to bottom).
R u serious Micheal? So what do you think? Crazy or sense making. I think some of what he says is nuts.
Thank you michael! That makes alot of sense to me!!
A feww comments back my appeared in a weird place. Sorry though not happening anymore.
My guess is that there were several posts at the same time and yours was the first of those several posts. When you posted and refreshed, your post was on the screen with the other posts that were made at the same time below yours.
Also when you post a comment with your page set to view comments in order posted then that means that the very last one at the bottom is the newest one correct?
The CIMSS SAL map should be used with caution because not everything that you see on it is really SAL; for example, it looks like the East Pacific has a strong SAL most of the time but that is actually dry air and/or cool water - that is because dust and dry air as well as cool water produce a SAL signature on that map (this one; here is a description of the maps). Visible imagery can better differentiate between the two as dust (SAL) will appear as a yellow or brown color, but it is only useful during the day.
Thanks for that info Michael!

What are the thoughts here for tropical weather, in the near future?
Thank you michel. I have been using if for a while and have assumed it meant dust and also that some of the epac sigs were false. Also mermaid: The thoughts are varied althought we do not expect to se a storm until july now. That doesn't mean it isn't possible espically with la nina strengthening and shear weakening.
If by near future you mean the next week, then chances are likely that nothing will form. Past that, and it is very difficult to say (though I personally don't think anything else will form at least until mid-July).
Check out these warnings: Link
very colorful map.

Also we are in for it here in fort bend county we have a big one coming. Velocity wind radar measurments indicate winds to 45. Small mesocyclone is possible but no sever ts warning and no tornado warning: Link
Also can someone answer my question about comment ordering?
Sorry... I missed that question before. Yes, I believe that you are correct.
May lose power.
778. ryang
Caster, did you set your comments to ''Show 50 Comments''?, Are is your filter set to show all?
Many thanks Lou. Also would you happen to be the lou who made the website weatherman 911 that has lou's weather watch?
Double yes
Nope... Don't know anything about that. lol
May need to leave just had gust to 60 mph. Sustained to 30.
Thanks lou just makin sure.
It is better to have the filter on Show Bad so that the worst are not shown (why would you want to see comments like that?)
Pretty nice site. Wish I could take credit for it. LOL
Evening everyone,

A few thoughts on Bill Proenza and the Sun-Sentinal article / editorial.

I suppose being a wundergrounder I am automatically in Proenza's corner. I know I've felt stifled this week because some of the regularly available resources haven't been available. Imagine PERMANENT inavailability of this information! We'd all be stymied, I think.

I also believe if QuikScat failed suddenly, and the quality of NHC forecasts therefore declined, NHC and especially Proenza as its head (the fall guy) would certainly be blamed by NOAA, and in all likelihood by the media as well. Heads would likely roll, and Proenza's would be the first. I think Proenza is pretty smart to cover himself and his workers as well by placing any blame squarely where it belongs.

It's also sad that at a time when the US is withdrawing funds from local / national need areas to continue a war in a foreign country, at a time when other weather agencies worldwide are INCREASING their forecast capabilities, at a time when the Atlantic is in the midst of an active period, NOAA is so unwilling to replace the vital QuikScat technology. It seems at best thoughtless and at worst negligent, IMO.

So hats off to Proenza. He seems like he may be a rather abrasive guy, but maybe that's what is needed right now. Also Max Mayfield seemed to approve of him as a replacement. Maybe Max knows something we don't.
new sfc anyl:
From nhc:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED USING AN EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOP AT 1952 QUICK
SCAT PASS. THE WAVE NOW EXTENDS NE FROM 3N24W TO 16N21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONLY ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AT
10N22W. WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 18 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W TO THE S OF 18N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE AXIS...AND DUST IS
OBSERVED E OF THE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W...LITTLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS INDICATED...ONE TSTM IS DISSIPATING W OF THE WAVE
NEAR 8.8N57.8W. A 2130 UTC QUICK SCAT SHOWS A WIND SHIFT AT
15N56W BUT WIND BARBS ARE SUSPECT. BUOY 41101 AT 14.6N 56.2W
HAS ABOUT A 2O DEG BACKING OF WINDS AT 23Z...INDICATING WAVE
AXIS COULD BE JUST A FEW MILES TO ITS EAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 70W TO THE S OF 13N MOVING W
AT 15 TO 20 KT. CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEAS BUT LARGE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE NOTED WELL INLAND COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 5N34W 5N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 5N31W AND
6N44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 20N97W AND RIDGES NE
DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A CREST OVER N GEORGIA.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING SE INTO THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
CURRENTLY N OF 26N ALONG 92W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE
SE TEXAS COAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W. THE
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OUT IN THE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF
AND THE SE CONUS. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. ANOTHER BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...S OF 22N E OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 12N83W. A THIN
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED ALONG 15N83W 16N77W AND
CONTINUES NE BEYOND 21N73W. DRY UPPER AIR HAS SPREAD SE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN...AND IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN BOTH AREAS. A FEW TSTMS FLARED OVER W
CUBA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTFLOW SETTING OFF CONTINUED
CONVECTION ALONG THE S AND W COASTS OF CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER E HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. BRISK ELY TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS ALONG 32N67W THROUGH AN
UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N73W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW ACROSS N
CUBA. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTER21N60W WITH A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND 32N57W. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS...IS
ADVECTED SE AND WILL SOON MERGE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A
MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PLUME WIDENS
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE AT 28N58W...AND CONTINUES NE BEYOND
30N58W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 27N40W WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR
18N53W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 7N53W AND RIDGES NE TO NEAR
24N36W. A 500 NM WIDE BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 240
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N35W 16N65W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
NOTED OVER THE E ATLC...ALONG 32N17W 26N32W 5N32W.

$$
NELSON




Also WB baha and i have it set to show all because it gives better udnerstanding of people's personality not just the good stuff.
I have my page set to show average, and I only see ST/SK or whatever he is calling himself if I choose to (or if someone quotes him :o(

So I am generally pretty happy.
where drying up! and so is are lakes has you can see look how dry the grass is you do not want a dry t-storm out her the grass is vary dry some in you dont see in tell later in the year and the later level you see you dont see in tell the end of summer not now and the water level is geting lower and lower!!!!





Thanks, JP.

I'm looking foreward to what Proenza has to say later this season when (as inevitably it will) a hurricane threatens the US . . .

Should be preetty interesting . . .

lol
Thank you all so much for the weather information!! I have to go now. I really do appreciate what you do here!! Have a nice night!

Most of you know that I am an older lady with 16 grandkids, and a sick hubby! This information could save a life!! THANKS!!:)
Whats with the spinning east of florida?
Anything to watch?
Hey tazmanian. Have been reading blog for 2 years and joined two days ago.
ThSCwxwatcth: Even when shear is high and conditions are unfavorable, features like that should always be watched unless they are destroyed. Bad storms have come through now.
severe thunderstorm warnings us Link
Nash are u hear?
Yeah It was definatley noticable. Im kinda keeping my eye on it.
That low is nothing to be concerned about. It has a pressure of 1017 mb (which is just 1 mb lower than the high which is sitting over Florida), and no convection. It will more than likely be gone by tomorrow morning.
By the way, I suggest that anybody who thinks in any way that conditions right now are unusually hostile read this blog (and look at the image posted in it). This is not directed towards anybody in particular, just that some think that the conditions right now are unusually hostile (and notice the date and especially the year).
JP,
There are Brushfires in Lake County by my apartment.
Taz,

U guys have been having a pretty rough year . . .
Probably micheal but it doesn't hurt to watch as I have seen dissapting system make quick comebacks before. Zeta actually nearly dissapted several times during its life before rapidly restrengthening.
Baha were does taz live?
According to the 72 hour shear forecast, shear will be low in the Western Atlantic where a tropical wave will approach FL?
CA
California. Wildfire trouble right?
hello?
Evening SW!
Evening cane and sw. Have just posted my first blog ever!
Greetings storm
Yeah, 50 structures lost out there in the tohoe area in CA today to fires. Alaska has lost some this weekend too.

Couple points on NELSON's NHC 8:05 see he's commenting on fresh quikscat which the public links aren't working so well on. & Old Mexico?
right


dont need any dry lighting thank you
O no.. tornado warnining: TORNADO WARNING
MNC135-250245-
/O.NEW.KFGF.TO.W.0018.070625T0140Z-070625T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
840 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ROSEAU...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 837 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAUG...OR 23 MILES WEST OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAUG AT 845 PM CDT...
BADGER AT 900 PM CDT...
FOX AT 910 PM CDT...
ROSEAU AT 925 PM CDT...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES
FOR A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4896 9638 4877 9639 4860 9546 4891 9553

$$
DK
Nice to meet you sky I beilieve this is the first time you have seen me on hear.
Tornado on radar Link
Some incredible video has come out of Canada from tornadoes in the last few days:


These guys get to o close it seems:


HUGE MANITOBA TORNADO! June 23, 2007 -
Extremely bad weather approaching me I may need to leave.
Can someone post stormkats comment again?
Your not going to beilieve. The storm that moved over me and then left has a WALL CLOUD behind it. No svt warning and no tornado warning but none the less I can see this rotating wall cloud.
Its gone now
827. ryang
Caster, you have mail.
Moved by very quickly. Sorry guys no pics.
HM? where?
Scroll to the top of the page and look on the left side of your screen. It should say in red letters that you have mail.
Found it lou Ryang you should have mail.
Texas you live WAYYY up in north minnesota? Why is your name texascanecaster then lol?


Is it a temporary residence or what?
Lighting is terrible here. Not much cloud to ground lots of in cloud thoguh.
JFL~ That video is incrediable..& in Canada.

Texas~Nice to meet ya too.
Wrong jed. I live in se texas
I just posted that warning cause the storm is well formed. No the storm that went by me had no warnings on it and still doesn't.
838. ryang
Thanks Caster, i got it.
I remember seeing this storm on radar in Canada last night; I bet that this is the one that produced that tornado:

so what's the deal with the tropical wave coming to FL on Wednesday or Thursday or this week???
ISS sighting PASS
Sun Jun 24/ 9:42 PM CST
<2 minutes

29degrees Max Elevation
17degrees above W 28degrees above SW
Hey pat. Well all been nice talking to you guys. Also STORMKAT if you read this I left a comment on your blog. G night all.
what was florida's driest rainy season on record?
You dont know what my day was like.
No power for hours due to 60 mph winds and blinding rain and hail and flooding.THEN my brother got in trouble with the law and got banned from Walmart and i was there but clean.
I'm around JP keeping an eye on the fires



Local Storm Report


06/24/2007 0500 PM

1 miles SW of Baldwin, Ashe County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


Near intersection of Route 194 and laural creek Road
flash flooding inundated a home. The lone occupant was
rescued from the residence. The basement of the home was
completely flooded.




06/24/2007 0515 PM

2 miles se of Trout, Ashe County.

Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.


Three tops Road washed out. Flowing water entered a home.
The lone occupant was rescued from the residence.





06/24/2007 0515 PM

2 miles se of Trout, Ashe County.

Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.


Three tops Road washed out





06/24/2007 0504 PM

Baldwin, Ashe County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by public
Where is Stormkat I had a question for him
Link


Rain fall totals..I dont think we had 12 inches but it showes that..I think that area had 7-8inches.
Forcaster put a 30% chance of a isolated thunderstorm. Hmm? 8 inches of rain,major flooding,hail as big as nickles,power outS,
Charlote had 8000 customers in the dark.
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 3:17 AM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Forcaster put a 30% chance of a isolated thunderstorm. Hmm? 8 inches of rain,major flooding,hail as big as nickles,power outS,


Well nobody's perfect... LOL
Water rescues were reported in the north-west mountains in north carolina.
Usually, the lower the chances, the worse the storm will be; the worst storm I ever had was on a day with a zero chance of precipitation (or severe weather, though there was a moderate risk a couple hundred miles to the north).
No deaths reported but a couple rescues.
Flowing water entered a home.


wow
So far the strongest tornado from last night is an F3, not quite at the level of the Elie F4 but close. If extrapolated onto the EF scale, the winds were likely about 150-160 mph with yesterday's biggest tornado and about 190 mph in Elie.
latest sat obser indicate that a poss signifcate event is about to develope atlantic north of bahamahas off north fla and ga. coasts cyclonegenis poss as weather systems move off mid atlantic and a 2nd system along se gulf coasts not too sure but this may develope into something more like winter type cyclone but thats kind of late in the year but weather has been unusal this year with lots of cyclones hanging along the coasts who knows maybe we will have a backward cane .
It sounded like we're expecting nothing more than an inverted lower trough from the West Atlantic being inhanced by an upper trough from the east gulf. PWATs 2"+, perhaps heavy rainfall...
867. N3EG
I suggest that anybody who thinks in any way that conditions right now are unusually hostile read this blog

Oh, you're talking about the picture - not the comments by Stormtop. I get it now...
868. eye
banned from Wally World, oh my!


btw, yall know that at least 165 homes have been destroyed by a fire at Lake Tahoe? 500 more threatened....not that big of a fire, but the 25-35mph made it spread really fast.
869. RL3AO
03B has redeveloped in the Arabian sea and is expected to strengthen to 55kts and make landfall in Southern Iran as a moderate tropical storm.


1
i wonder how the wave action/surge is effecting Dubai's man made islands?
can someone please post where this tropical wave is suppose to be coming from that everyone is talking about . that suppose to arrive on tuesday in fla . thanks
If anyone is interested...

Snow is falling this morning in Washington and Oregon with temperatures in the 20's and 30's.

Frost advisories are posted for South-Central Oregon and northern California.

Even Stampede Pass, WA (elevation 3,960ft.) has been reporting snow this morning!
good morning everyone........so what is going on in the tropics any thing developing this week??
Tropics are painfully boring. Nothing going on. Enjoy it while it lasts:-)
Towards the end of June a large persistant trough over the East Coast looks to be the dominate weather feature for at least the first 10 days of July, if not longer.

Anything forming in the Atlantic will probably not make it to the coast.