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Quiet tropics; the globe experiences its 4th warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:16 PM GMT on October 18, 2006

It's a quiet Wednesday in the tropics. A weak low pressure system near Puerto Rico is kicking up some showers, but this system is under 30 knots of wind shear and is not expected to develop. Wind shear is expected to be relatively light across the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico most of the coming week, and the NOGAPS model is forecasting that a tropical storm will form in the southern Caribbean on Saturday. The storm is forecast to move northwards, threatening Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba early next week. None of the other models are picking up on this, and the NOGAPS has been wrong once before this month on a similar type of forecast. Residents of the Caribbean, south Florida, and the Bahamas should keep an eye on possible development later this week, but I doubt that we'll see a tropical storm in the Caribbean like the NOGAPS model is forecasting.

An unusually cool September in the U.S.
The U.S. experienced its first month with below normal temperatures in over two years last month, according to the National Climatic Data Center September summary. September 2006 was the 31st coolest September dating back to 1895, and the first month with below-normal temperatures since August 2004. Still, January to September was the warmest such year-to-date period on record in the U.S. The nationally averaged year-to-date temperature was 58.3F (14.6C), a full 1F above the record set just last year in 2005. Interestingly, the United States was the only region of the globe that saw significantly cooler than normal temperatures in September (Figure 1). September 2006 was the 37th wettest September on record in the U.S., and Kentucky had its wettest September ever. The cool weather in the U.S. was due to a southward dip of the jet stream over the nation; this jet stream pattern also acted to steer September's hurricanes away from the U.S. and out to sea.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from normal for September 2006.

Globally, the 4th warmest September on record
While the U.S. cooled off in September, the rest of the globe stayed hot. September 2006 was the 4th warmest September globally since records began in 1880 (1.0F/0.56C above the 20th century mean). January to September 2006 was the 4th warmest such period on record. Global ocean temperatures for September were the 3rd warmest on record, thanks in part to an El Nio episode that began in September. Sea ice extent in the Arctic was the second lowest on record this September. The record low was set in 2005.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M. as usual for this information. I hadn't thought about Sep being unusually cool since we were "ovenized" here. Even today, the high is going to be 89 and it is October! Maybe a hurricane would have balanced this temperature thing out - who knows. I think I'll take the temperature as opposed to the hurricane though.
The song remains quiet.Thankfully...In the tropics..
Thank you Dr. So we'll be watching the Carib. Low shear and a pesky model forecast.....something to watch.
NOGAPs out to Lunch..Like the Good DOc SAys...
Yeah Saddle...we're supposed to set record highs here the next two days.
Sept was most Definately cooler in SE Louisiana this year,unlike last. It seemed that Katrina just carved out the atmosphere and Hell moved in behind it..and didnt leave to Halloween.
Anyone else hear about another round of serious rain for SE Texas this afternoon and tonight?
Isn't that amazing. In Nebraska, they are already wearing the long-johns according to my friends there. Here, well...I will take here any old day! Denver even has snow - I am sure Buffalo doesn't even want to discuss their week so far! I find it fascinating how we are so close and yet the weather is so different based on our distance from each other. Again, glad to be in the south.
HeresLink what I see the Houston guys saying randrewl..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX


DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL BE UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE RAIN AMOUNT FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS
BEEN VERIFYING WELL OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS AND AGREES WITH
THE ECMWF IN ITS HANDLING OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF EVENTS...THE MODEL BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CLL AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TO THE COAST AROUND 12Z. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY THE FRONT
WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. THE PRECIP SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
THE FRONT...OR PREFRONTAL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH AND SO TAPERED
OFF THE RAIN CHANCES PRETTY DRASTICALLY FORM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS EVENT ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SE TX OVER THE
WEEKEND. A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS IN PLACE.
Thanks for the update!

September was 2.7 degrees below normal; no A/C was needed on many days. This month also appears that it will be colder than normal; even with several days in the 90s, it is currently 1.1 degrees below normal. It may also be the first month this year with above normal precipitation - if forecasts continue to verify like Monday's (more than half the normal montly rainfall fell in one day).
I read in the personal Blogs..a scathing report from a WUBA about the FEMA response to the Event in Buffalo.WAs really disconcerting to say the least.
The GFSx has been pretty good in the predict area..on these last few events..so Im kinda impressed with the accuracy.Heres the rain Rand,and some more for me , next week too..Link
Michael.....From what I understand an El Nino year should cause Florida to have cooler and wetter winter conditions. Is that correct?
We're still short about 12 inches of precip.
Thanks Pat. Definitely more rain for you on the way.
Yes, that is right; here are the weather patterns that are responsible:



Also, here is a map of Florida showing precipitation by climate divisions for a normal year, El Nino average and the 1982-83 El Nino (January to March).
The lack of rain after the Storm last year,continued thru fall & winter.Plus the lack of any close tropical landfalls..is reflected in our 20 inch deficet..and the Sugar Cane wont be as tall this year.Link
Maybe we will have a Christmas snow ,like in 04 again.
Never say Never..in December..LOL!..Link
Buffalo last Friday the 13th...Link
Thats wild stuff for October...Wowsa!
A few days before the widespread rain event on Monday, a drought disaster was declared for most of Missouri, including my county... go figure... LOL
Maybe sinking gas prices created a low and pulled in cool air for September. Even with the rain this week NC is still on the minus side of precip.
it was really cool here in indiana. we had record early frost in some locations. 2 days we never topped 50. supposed to be 70's today then upper 50's.link
you guys can keep your record highs in the south please. lol
Matt.
question, anyone know of any reports yesterday of an earthquake at 5:30 in the morning in Hawaii yesterday? Just got an email from a friend who lives in Hawaii, and she had said they experienced another one, though small yesterday
very interesting.
its al fun and games till someone loses an eye, then its hillarious.
The storm, which had a peak wind gust of 106 mph, swept into the 520,000-acre preserve that straddles the Tennessee-North Carolina border on Monday evening.

Unusual happenings a long way from the coast. Going that way in the morning, I hope the roads are clear and free flowing.
There were reported tremors in Winston-Salem,NC yesterday.
Pick your Poison - I just got confirmation of my entry into the 2007 Boston Marathon on April 16. The race begins West of Boston in Hopkinton & runs the 26.1 miles into Boston - one way. With reservations/travel/training it is not like anyone will back out if the weather is not perfect. I understand they usually have cool weather (good) but with a headwind out of the east (bad) or a tailwind (good) with temps in the 80's (heat injuries increase sharply with each degree increase. Looking at the typical El Nino pattern posted by MichaelSTL, if it persists, it looks like a tailwind & warm is most likely next race. Don't look for me on TV I will be about the exact center of the pack (one of the 22,499 losers), although my Florida training will prepare me for the heat (but not the hills).
plywood,
Nothing but after shocks.
Link
Ready for the next rain Event..Link
Thanks for the El Nino info Michael.
please stop bringing uo the damn tunnels the idea is insane to say the list weather is still something that humanity dosn't understand and for you to say that you know exactly what will happen to weather patterns AND SAY THAT IT WILL HELP IS APSOLUTE INSANITY
NOT ONE PERSON ON THIS PLANET COULD TELL US WHAT TYPE OF EFFECTS THIS TUNNELS WILL HAVE ON THE ENVIRONMENT!! Just look at how bad we are at predicting storm formations and weather forcasting over long periods of time SO FOR CRYING OUT LOUD GIVE THE DAMN TUNNELS A REST!!!!PLEASE!!!!
I think cyclonebuster just made mrpeurtorico's head a'splode.
Regarding this "weak low pressure system near Puerto Rico...kicking up some showers"

-- in which direction is it expected to move? East? And when would it be expected to dissipate or move away from land (in particular, the Anguilla/St. Martin area?

I'm trying to understand more about these systems' life cycles. Thanks.
I don't know about the Tunnel idea or Global Warming that much, but if you like to think of possibilities in Weather change and have'nt seen this NOVA program it's worth a look.
Link

Way to kill some time in the quite time's. :)
Re-broadcast on Tuesday, October 24 at 8 p.m.
P.S. They don't delve into the effects on weather but it is fun to speculate.
Please take note:

BillyBadBird, does NOT have other handles on this blog.

I made a mistake, and I am very sorry.

Sorry as well for being off topic, but I need to clear this up.
msbvanguilla

From the tropical weather discussion this morning: "A 1007 mb area of low pressure remains just north of Puerto Rico. This feature is producing disorganized showers and tstms and upper-level winds remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. A surface trough extends S from this low to the ABC Islands. This area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly NE and away from Puerto Rico during the next few days."

The high probability rains will continue and actually peak Thursday night into Friday and then improve for the weekend as the low moves away (see forecast for Wall Blake, Anguilla in attached link)
Link
what is on the far south eastern side of this loop. is it a wave that is spinning?
This Day in National/World Weather History ...
18 October 1994 → A tremendous four-day rain came to an end in southeast Texas. 10 to 20 inches of rain were widespread, and 30.50 inches were reported at Liberty, Texas. Massive flooding occurred with 18 lives lost, 13,000 evacuated, 22,000 homes destroyed or damaged. Total damage was $900 million
Source: NOAA

I was in Houston in 1994. It just started raining one day and did not stop. You could not get on the freeways because the feeder roads were flooded. People were riding jetskis down I-10. It was called a hundred years flood. Bayous left their banks. It was not good.
wow, hornfan, that must have been a crazy week, and then some.
is it a wave that is spinning on the se side of this loop?
Link
It now appears that yesterday's NOGAPS forecast of a potentially significant tropical system moving into the SE GOM was erroneous.

The latest NOGAPS is in (see link) and appears to be delaying the formation of the tropical system in the NW Caribbean for next week. This delayed NOGAPS timing is starting to come more into line with the ensemble models which indicated the increased tropical activity moving into the NW Caribbean in the Tuesday-Thursday time period. However, the ensemble models never really show this activity ever moving into the GOM but dissipating over Central America by the following weekend.
Link
it was. I was working in Lake Jackson at the time and had to try to get back in the city before I was stuck. 288 (the main highway back to HOU) was flooded because the Sims bayou had left its banks. had to cut across through Sugerland. Road that I cut through on was closed shortly after I went through. Luckily I was in a truck. Made it home safely and then justed watched it rain.
East Texas should prepare for some more flooding.

24 hour QPF
10day GFSx .with the rain events....Link
Texas gets more...as the Ingredients come together..Link
Houston Radar..Link
Scatter T-Storm are already moving into the Houston area. Some have potential to drop alot of rain in short period. But these storms are moving quick. I believe that the whole area is under a flood warning or watch until 7pm tomorrow
The rains will be widespead along the old trof hanging across the Gulf coast..New OLinkrleans to get the rain again too...and many more..as this one swings out of Texas and across..
it was. I was working in Lake Jackson at the time and had to try to get back in the city before I was stuck. 288 (the main highway back to HOU) was flooded because the Sims bayou had left its banks. had to cut across through Sugerland. Road that I cut through on was closed shortly after I went through. Luckily I was in a truck. Made it home safely and then justed watched it rain.

i was living in Atlanta,Tx at the time, don't remember to much rain there.

what is on the se side of this loop?
Hopefully, NOLA will not get more than the pumps can handle.
If I remember correctly, the 1994 storm hovered over the greater HOU area and inland SE Texas. The coastal area did not get the same high rain levels. I could be wrong because it has been awhile.
Houston area flood warnings.
Thanks Rand
can someone answer me please:
what is on the south eastern side of this loop?
The real deal on the Corps Plan in New Orleans..from Army Corps of Engineers themselves.Link
On October 18, 1952, the overnight temperature dropped to 22 degrees in Flint, which is the record low temperature for the day. Curiously enough, the very next year, 1953, the daytime temperature rose to 82 degrees, setting the record high temperature for the day!
Source: NOAA
here is a pretty fun forecast simulator out of Georgia.
In 1952, Elkader, IA had a high temperature of 68 and low temperature of 10. This 58 degree diurnal temperature change is the largest ever recorded.

Source: NOAA
THE REPORT that the Current powers that be, and many more ..that was not to be seen by WUBA, or anyone else.These reports at one time were not to be released to the General Public.The results..Will startle many...Link
Hey Patrap!
What is the spin on the southeastern side of this loop?
thanks
MATT
Good eyes dude..Looks like possible new emergance off the African continet..lets take a look..
alright, thanks.
Matt
Heres a look from the Eurosat..Link
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 10N37W 9N41W 6N55W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N EAST
OF 20W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OUT
OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN
27W-36W.
you can see it at approx. 30W 10N
tornadodude:
Notice all the shear to the west of that "swirl". Not likely that it can survive. It will be drawn to the north like the rest of the African storms this time of the year.
thanks guys, might be of interest.
how are the conditions out there?
Check this out! Is this a typo?...or not.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 36N49W THROUGH 31N56W
TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N59W...INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N60W...TO 16N62W...
AND FINALLY TO 13N69W NEAR CURACAO IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N49W TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
24N58W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N67W...ABOUT
110 NM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N67W
SOUTHWARD TO 16N67W TO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N69W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N65W 18N66W 15N67W 13N69W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
Randrewl, lol
i don't know.
I don't either dude. But the Dr. said quiet....so something's got to happen.
I would think that would be a typo! I haven't seen or heard of any TCFA's from the Navy or anyone else! The conditions around the system have not improved from the hostile conditions mentioned this morning!

Afternoon All!
I agree Pulse....that's the first thing I thought. Just a bad place to omit a word!
i second that, it just wouldn't make sense.
lol Randrewl
Checking the text for verification.
what about the spin south west of the wave in discussion?
witch one are they expecting to be a tropical cyclone as per their special feature thanks
A few individuals are still working on this. Will let you all know as soon as all is verified.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
241 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006

PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 19/0000 UTC THRU OCT 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

HEAVY RAIN THREAT RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 1. PCPN EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED IN TWO
REGIONS. ONE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT EJECTING NEWD
FROM THE AZ/NM THIS EVENING AND ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THU...AND ANOTHER FARTHER TO THE SE ALONG THE MID
TO UPR TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY SIMILAR SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO THE PCPN DISTRIBUTION
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT...BUT ARE SGFNTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE MID TO UPR TX COAST INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.

WITH RESPECT TO THE NRN PCPN REGION...UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY DAY 1 WL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF LGT TO MDT PCPN ACRS ERN NM. AS THE WELL
DEFINED VORT EJECTS NEWD...PCPN SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP EARLY THU
MORNING IN THE MAX ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE AHEAD OF THE VORT FROM
NCNTRL TX..NEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY REGION.
.50-1" AREAL AVG AMTS DEPICTED DAY 1 ACRS THESE AREAS.

ALONG THE MID TO UPR TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

THERE CONTS TO BE SGFNT DIFFS WITH PCPN DEPICTION BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS. THE 1200 UTC GFS CONTS TO SHOW MUCH HEAVIER PCPN AMTS
ACRS LA INTO SRN MS COMPARED TO THE NAM. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
GRID SCALE PROBLEMS IN THE GFS AS THERE USUALLY IS IN HEAVY PCPN
EVENTS. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN BIG PCPN EVENTS...WHILE
THE GFS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN MAX IS OFTEN TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...IT USUALLY DOES WELL WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PCPN
MAXIMUM. WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2.25"+ RANGE THIS
PERIOD FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STRENGTHENING
BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVG FRONT ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND OVERALL FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS MOVG
OVR THE FRONTAL SFC...BELIEVE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THU ACRS ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GFS AMTS...ALBEIT WITH A SWWD DISPLACEMENT TO
THE GFS MAX....DEPICTING A REGION OF 1-3" AREAL AVG PCPN FROM THE
MID TO UPR TX COAST...NEWD INTO SRN LA AND FAR SRN MS. THIS
SWWD DISPLACEMENT FITS IN WELL WITH THE WELL DEFINED BNDRY LAYER
CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM IN THE NAM AND GFS ALONG THE SEWD MOVG FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE MID TO UPR TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU IN THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW...BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE AREA BEGINS TO PROGRESS MORE STEADILY
DOWNSTREAM DURG THU. IN THE REGION OF TRAINING...LOCALIZED PCPN
AMTS IN EXCESS OF 5" POSSIBLE.
The view they using on the NHC page..Link

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
250 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006

...VALID 18Z WED OCT 18 2006 - 00Z FRI OCT 20 2006...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E 7R5 55 SE BYY 30 ESE KRP 15 W RKP 30 W VCT 45 WNW VCT
45 NW VCT 15 SSW 3T5 20 SW 11R 20 WSW UTS UTS 20 SE LFK 10 W POE
20 SE ESF 25 SSE HEZ 15 ENE MCB 25 W HBG 35 WSW HBG 15 N HDC
15 NNE LFT 30 E 7R5.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 S BPT 25 SSW GLS 20 S BYY PKV 20 WNW VCT 30 NW VCT 25 S 11R
20 SSE 11R 15 W DWH 10 NNW DWH 20 ESE CXO 15 NNW BPT 20 ENE BPT
25 S BPT.


THE LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK UPGRADED THE
THREAT AREA TO MDT ALONG THE MID TO UPR TX COAST AND EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK INTO SRN LA FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. CONCERN FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTS TONIGHT INTO THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY SINKING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...(same discusion as above post)
HeresLink their surface map ..
so was it a typo or the info is correct on something tropical forming there thanks patrap
The WUBA NAtion has made the News in a big way..in the Tampa Paper...We should all be Proud of that,..and thank those responsible...for the favorable article..Nice Job all around!
Heres the article..Link
93. 0741
i going call nhc now
Hey gang!!!
Yea I have got to say I am starting to hear of Wunderground in alot of places. I always tell people that this is the best weather site!!!!
Link

Tropical development here?
who has the telephone number the NHC its easier to go straight to the source
97. 0741
i talk to them it was error it not expect their going send out new one
98. 0741
the new one is out
99. 0741
CORRECTED SPECIAL FEATURE DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED
100. MTJax
did you verify with Christopher Burr?
NOT...lol.."not" the one to miss..I still say they need a proofreader
102. MTJax
NM. You are correct
103. MTJax
Next time I will not waste time on email and pick up the phone :)
Nothing should worry us more than man attempting to stop more of the Globes,..natural thermostatic mechanisms...aka..Tropical Cyclones...We would shurly be DOomed then...LOL!
106. 0741
i spoke to one of hurricane speicalist at nhc
Spread the Word!..Link
108. 0741
their are like us who do error too
WUBA member with no storm Linkin late December...
lol - PaTrap
Where did you get that photo of Saddle, Pat?
Good afternoon,

That was a typo as conditions across the atlantic basin are not favorable for tropical in most areas if not all.Also just checked globals and the NOGAPS model has just about dropped the idea of developing a tropical cyclone in the western caribbean.What a relief this year has been for all living in hurricane prone areas hopefully el nino sticks around long enough to keep the quiet times rolling.Adrian
Guess the NHC wanted to see if we were paying attention today.
LOL..Me After the Link -device installed...Link
Note the WUBA monitor stareLink
hey adrian it seems like if this hurricane season is coming to an end what are your opinions on that
I put "doomed" in google search.it came up in one of the image searches..LOL
Link

could someone explain this database does the last entry have is as a tropical depression

Note: this is for 90S invest
I got my package from Sandcrab Randrewl with the discs from the MNF game in the Dome..Plus the ones from Miss coast during & after Katrina..Plus some other related stuff..The Saintsations pics ..are just awesome.
u know what this is?????????
do ya????
Looks Like Norway
Its Botnhamn........ yes............ ya know what time it is here????

2 am
Hello Y'all! How have things been for the past few days?
10/2/06

END OF 2006 SEASON.
1900...nothing happenned on your NOOOO!!! when I clicked on it.
This is relitively new to the forcast...CUSE YOU EL NINO!!!

Link
heh maybe that was the problem the link not working..
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 3:26 PM CDT on October 18, 2006.

heh maybe that was the problem the link not working..

Na, that wasn't it...
133. BtnTx
Update from Baytown - already had 3 light showers since noon. Baytown bayous and creeks fully drained from from previous 92L event. Feels like 200% humidity outside.
I don't like that model. Hope that it is not accurate.
Posted By: BtnTx at 3:27 PM CDT on October 18, 2006.

Update from Baytown - already had 3 light showers since noon. Baytown bayous and creeks fully drained from from previous 92L event. Feels like 200% humidity outside.


I know exactly how you feel...
lol, i know. =}

more severe weather for the south that isn't good.
Posted By: hornfan at 3:27 PM CDT on October 18, 2006.

I don't like that model. Hope that it is not accurate.


I love that model, just not liking its prediction now at all...

And it is a very accurate model...
D:
139. BtnTx
I remember the good old days in the past when models wore fancy dresses or swimsuits
It's not necicarily severe, it's just a ton of rain...

...AGAIN!!!
1900 - I hear you. It is not the model but the projection which I don't like. But you can't control the weather or the humidity. It is S Tex
Posted By: BtnTx at 3:33 PM CDT on October 18, 2006.

I remember the good old days in the past when models wore fancy dresses or swimsuits


I feel like giving that comment a plus!
; )
1900 - I'm still a newbie so I have what is probably a dumb question. I don't know how to tell from looking at the model what kind of time frame it's reflecting. Can we expect this within the next 24 hours? I'm in central MS
Actually, isn't that the same model that Patrap has been posting the last couple of days?
I am not sure.
Closest weather station to my location

Link
147. MTJax
And as previously determined by Patrap and myself, the western GOM will have a LOW off Texas on Friday.

Its the magic 1008 number to boot.


48 hour fronts forecast

7 foot waves to go with the area in 48 hours also

wind wave forecast 48 hours
Check out this site.

Link

Hopefully this will answer your question.


Total precipitation 45 hrs out.
Posted By: MTJax at 3:42 PM CDT on October 18, 2006.

And as previously determined by Patrap and myself, the western GOM will have a LOW off Texas on Friday.


Oh boy...

Fun fun fun!...Ugh!
: (
Thanks. i went back and looked and it appears that both are GFS. Please if this is not correct, let me know.
Portugaul got nailed by a strong extra-tropical storm

Link

For a few hours, it almost looked sub-tropical!
Late & Middle Permian Climate

Equatorial rainforest disappeared as deserts spread across central Pangea. Though the southern ice sheets were gone, an ice cap covered the North Pole. Rainforests covered South China as it crossed the Equator.

A few million years later...

The interior of Pangea was hot and dry during the Triassic. Warm Temperate climates extended to the Poles. This may have been one of the hottest times in Earth history. Rapid Global Warming at the very end of the Permian may have created a super - "Hot House" world that caused the great Permo-Triassic extinction. 99% of all life on Earth perished during the Permo-Triassic extinction.

The climate finally began to moderate during the Jurassic Period.

The Pangean Mega-monsoon was in full swing during the Early and Middle Jurassic. The interior of Pangea was very arid and hot. Deserts covered what is now the Amazon and Congo rainforests. China, surrounded by moistur bearing winds was lush and verdant.

A map of the Early Triassic Period, http://www.scotese.com/images/L240_zonef.jpg.


Rivers are still really high...
Link This is the link
That's interesting...I wonder what that means for the current global warming?
Well in the late Permian, the Earth, north of the equator, was just about as cold as it is today. Who knows, it could have been colder.
Hello all what is going on in the tropics
Theres know doubt that the earth could get much hotter in the future. Maybe even hotter then it was in the Early Triassic, I mean afterall the Triassic didn't have humans burning fossil fuels and what not.
Hmmm...
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 4:20 PM CDT on October 18, 2006.

Hello all what is going on in the tropics


Not much...
Southern Hemishpere is starting to get active with two invests

Link
The main reason we live in a "Cold House Earth" is because the closing of the Isthmus of Panama. When the Isthmus closed it diverted warm water that now flowed all the way to the Artic. This flow I speak of is the Gulf Stream. You might think this would make the Earth even hotter but it had the opposite effect. When the Isthmus closed it also kept to oceans from mixing, Atlantic and Pacific. The Atlantic Basin being much smaller than the pacific, accumulated more salt. Salt water sinks much faster then fresh water, so even though the water is hotter and moves more, its much heavier and sinks down and turns south before it can incircle the Artic. Now the Artic is free of warm water, thus quickly cools and freezes, and the same current that moved up the Earth and sank is now moving south cooling the ocean as it goes. This is how the Earth became what it is Today.
Well as humans with the available alternatives to burning fossil fuels, we need to do everything we can to reduce our fossil fuel consumption.
It's not just fossil fuels, almost everything we do is helping heat the earth more and more. Personally I'd prefer a "Hot House World", that way hurricanes like Wilmas would me a normal occurrence. Infact it's believed during the time of the dinosaurs, parts of the Atlantic Ocean were hotter then a hottube!
I dont understand anything you say when you say something like "Hurricane Wilma's would be more normal occurance." What does that mean? You like death and destruction and want to see people houses and lives ruined more often?

Fossil fuels are the apsect of human induced Global Warming that we can best eliminate.

Can you clarify a bit more on what you said perviously though?
With SSTs like that, they could fuel a hurricanes winds to, oh.. lets say.... 400mph+!!. I'd like to think thats the reason why dinosaurs evolved into such monstrous creatures, was so they could anchor themselves down during such hurricanes. Redwoods much bigger then Today, donimated the coasts, I wonder why?
Trouper415,

I'd never intend to offend a hurricane victim, at any time what so ever. I was just stating a fact which may have sounded a little crude.
I still don't understand what you are saying buddy. Keep up the good work my friend.
Thanks, Slinky.

That was very clear English text and had the answer I was after: the low is moving NE away from PR, but slowly, and that rain for the next couple days is likely.

I didn't find that text. Is there a link to that text, or was that your translation into English?

What do you not get?
172. BtnTx
Global warming is occuring, yes. Caused by the Sun - our heat source. most Scientists report that it is MAN doing it WRONG - They report tah so they get more grant funding to get their income Funded. Minor few scientists actually report the Sun's impact. SUV's not causing it. SUV's were not around causing last ice age to end eons ago. Nuff said, I will not debate this subject.
Bad cell right over us..here..Bumpy ..Heading your way sandcrab...Link
Thats your opinion, and it does has some relevance to reality.
BtnTx - as one of those scientists who say man-made global warming is real I would point out that I receive zero government funding. We say what we do about anthropogenic climate change because the evidence tells us that is the case.
Im out the trailer till this ones over...Link
Global warming can be caused by thousands of different factors. I just stated two.
Be safe Patrap
Remember Pat, get under your desk and cover your head, You'll be fine! Link
180. melly
Patrap....Keep an eye out for Cumulonibusmammatas
181. melly
I like Katie..But she just doesn't flow.I think I will go back to Brian
182. BtnTx
Ok DocBen, I don't mind the input. I am no scientist. I don't think we can shutdown global civilization tonight and fix the problem. Howevet the last 3 vehicles I have bought are certified LEV vehicles and that makes me feel a little better
183. melly
I was told to modify my comment to patrap
184. melly
Must be the blondeness
185. BtnTx
DocBen I am glad to hear you are reporting without being on gov payrole. Makes me glad to hear there are still some of you out there!
BtnTx,

are you this kind of guy?
187. BtnTx
Wishcaster - pic did not show up on my PC
Ahh! forget it, these links have been a pain today!
190. melly
And I always carry a red marker to my job in case I am asked to draw blood
Oh!, some aquavita for my throat!
192. BtnTx
Message to Patrap. I recently bought a radio with NOAA weather alarm. What you went thru Tuesday night I went thru Monday night. It is a good thing to have I think, but Houston area is so big that most warnings were for far away from I live. I guess if tornado was actually coming down my street I would be glad I was alerted.
You have a basement BtnTx right?
195. BtnTx
Wiscaster - looks like me but my hair is gray instead of green LOL
This blog is mostly for lonely people. Except for me!
197. BtnTx
Wishcaster - no way to have basement in Baytown unless I had major scuba gear!
I coudn't resist it Tx!
Better start building that underwater fishtank, because your gonna need it! Link
Not agian!
200th!!!!!
And ME LOL.....


Taco:0)
205. melly
If I wasn't banned by so many I could tell you all I know.....LOL
206. melly
The Exorcist" scared me to death when i was little
I saw The Exorcist when I was 11, I laughed the whole time.
211. BtnTx
Wishcaster I dug and found exactly the pic you posted, but I found 10 million fire ants as well !
The description would not be blog appropriate.
No ants that far down LOL!
Ok!, now your confusing me.
Whishcasterboy:
"
The interior of Pangea was hot and dry during the Triassic. Warm Temperate climates extended to the Poles. This may have been one of the hottest times in Earth history. Rapid Global Warming at the very end of the Permian may have created a super - "Hot House" world that caused the great Permo-Triassic extinction. 99% of all life on Earth perished during the Permo-Triassic extinction."
The interior of pangea was hot and dry because mountains blocked much of the flow of moisture. And of course you had deserts at the lattitudes that you have deserts today.
TORNADO WARNING..TEXAS..Link
The Troubles afoot here...Link
The local info on the warning...Link
224. BtnTx
Tnaks Patrap - Have family in San Antonio
This is the cell...nasty hook echo..noted..Link
Looks like it formed near the resovior..they seem to favor the open...nasty fast mover though.Link
The vortex on the storm trakers..Link
Tops to 42,000 ft in that Storm...bigun..Link
229. BtnTx
Patrap - I appreciate the updates - btn here standing by on watch
In the big pic..the cell that formed the Tornado echo..is what they call..a SEVERE right mover..As the line of Storms travel Northeast..that cell kinda moves along at a right angle or more left to right ..than the other storms..and is almost always a sign of trouble coming..or about to...
sorry,forgot the LINKIE...Link
Shows better without the tracks in the way,...Link
SEVERE T-STORM warning Texas..Link
234. BtnTx
This is such a great site. Just renewed my subscription for another year. It's hard to believe WU only charges $5/yr for all that is offered at this site. My thanks to WU and the good Wx bloggers! Now - back to the Weather!
another SEVERE T-STORM...Link TEXAS
They ringing in now..
some more local info for TEXAS...Link
Briggs is in the Path directly..of the Earlier Tornadic cell..,Bad...lets wish them well andLink call anyone you Know to its NE...
That cell has gone and stayed severe..and has grown from 42K to 47K in 20 minutes..Link
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING..FT Worth..Link
THE SEVERE PAGE ..Link
242. BtnTx
Patrap - I grew up in San Antonio - Tornadoes can really be bad up there North East of Austin
This a bad situ..Hopefully it wont stay Severe..and blow out into just rain..But for now..its a Bumpy ride for many yet..
Lotsa rain falling on already saturated south...Link
245. BtnTx
I don't know situation in LA but in HOU area most bayous/creeks have drained but not major rivers yet in SE TX
FLOOD WARNING TEXASLink
Bad in Louisiana..and getting worse too..unfortunately..Link
248. BtnTx
Well, at least in Baytown things have drained out - maybe not for rest of TX
6 Parishes in N central Louisiana..under FLOOD WARNINGS
Lotsa other bad stuff too..Link
251. BtnTx
Wow Patrap lots of bad weather everywhere.
252. BtnTx
I am off to dinner and then bed. Best of Wx to all. Unless bad Wx alerts get me up in the night. Gnight all
there only two people here
hey patrap
255. BtnTx
How can you tell how many people are here?
cause i only see two people in the blog
257. BtnTx
I guess that would be u amd me?
I'm here, so there.........
259. BtnTx
I am now gone for now
Hello!
here , there and everywhere actualy. The wonders of info. tech. White mans magic for sure....
I'm here!!!
(COUGH)(COUGH)
To whoever lives in Houston, more rain on the way!

Link
1900, was it you that posted a link about sahara dust the other day??????????
Can anyone tell me the small rotation at 75/15
is this how storms form or is this just shear
leavings?
W/BLOG< where abouts are you?
Am back..was Blog building on my lil site.Hello alley
The severe page now..Link
justcoastings, I'm no expert, but I'm not sure what yuo are looking at??????Do you mean 15n 75w????????
you there patrap///see a cloud or 2 over yr head still. How did you fare yesterday?
Wow thats a shocker. I never thought I would see another cooler then average anything in my lifetime.
yea pottery a little overall swirl may just be area being pulled appart?
Yeh, that surprised me too, lightening10. Hopefully, with all the info that is being colated the forcasters can make sense of it all in a few years. Now it seems to all mystify everyone all the time. It used to be more predictable I think....
...at 15n 75w ????????????? justcoastings/
sorry must be seeing things
More like 76/13 do you see anything their pottery
r should i say 13/76
Maybe not, I just wasnt sure where you were looking at.
Was gonna just post about that JUST! Little cyclonic turning there! Have to see if the NOGAPS comes through! None of the others are interested though.
This is what the NHC had to say about it

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NE/ENE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF DOMINATES THE
GULF W OF 70W THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR
AND LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE PATTERN IN THIS VICINITY
IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX. THERE ARE NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS SEEN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN
70W-83W. INSTEAD OF SPLATTERING THE 1800 UTC MAP WITH TONS OF
SURFACE LOWS HAVE OPTED TO WAIT FOR MORE CONFIRMATION FROM THE
AVAILABLE BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NONETHELESS SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE 0000 UTC MAP. MOST OF
THESE LOW LEVEL CENTERS SEEM TO BE ORIENTED ALONG SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY ON THE EDGE OF A REBUILDING ATLC RIDGE FROM THE NE. IN
THE ERN CARIBBEAN
Yeh, OK. I see what you guys are saying. We will have to wait on more info then.
The MNF Saints Game ..First Responder Pics from a very special WUBA friend..now in a special blog entry..You dont want to Miss these..Guys & Gals...
Pottery still here?
"groovey" I will "get down" as Soon as I "stand up" happy b-day. how was the weather the day you were born?lol (stickin 2 topic)
90L dos not give up 90L is back up on the navy site like for the 3rd time
They've hired a new blog censor....stay on topic.






1245am 19Oct
Hey brother...that Invest ain't on my NRL site.
NHC Atlantic Outlook
10:30pm EDT OCT 18 2006

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
PREVIOUS DAY HAVE INCREASED. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR DEPICTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
AND AWAY FROM PUERTO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
notice that.. hmm

NRL doesn't post it but its on the FNMOC tropical page.
That's the 2:05AM.
Yeah, I see that. Just a low pressure area been playing pinball for a week now.
Hello....




A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OF 1006 MB IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N75W. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN.
Good evening,

Just remembering some of the most incredible moments ive ever been threw tracking a tropical system.

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN
...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Yeah, I've been remembering that night this night myself.
Tuesday is the Florida landfall anniversary of Wilma.
Yea randrewl what an incredible Hurricane that was...I was on the edge of my seat all night just watching the recon reports come in.
How long for 90L...7 or 8 days now? Hard to believe something isn't cooking there this morning.






Couple personal thoughts. 90L is still with us. I feel a short lived threat may develop from the ITCZ off SA probably sometime Thursday or Friday. NHC has been mentioning the gathering convection over Eastern Venezuela for the past 48hrs. With relaxed shear in the Southern Carib...this scenario would not be a surprise.
Yes, 23....I was wiping the sweat off with a bath towel over Wilma this night!
23...Do you recall the Dvorak numbers rolling prior to Recon on Wilma? That gave me the shivers.
With relaxed shear in the southern Carib....this presents an opportunity:

IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE LARGE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM
PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OF 1006 MB IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N75W. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN.
Hey Randrewl i was just looking at the 12z GFS 300-850mb and if if this verifys shear will drop to some favorable levels in the western caribbean and parts of the GOM before a monster front comes down and completely shuts down the rest of the season.Check out the GFS on oct27
Well, what I know about fronts this time of year is they are totally unpredictable. So if a model knows more than I...go with that. Usually the fronts in October don't make the long run. Even still that particular front is not due in south FL until like Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Longer still for a trip south. Plenty of time for a scare in the Carib.
That is if this front makes the trip.
Besides I'm not even talking about the Western Carib.
I'm farming this area this morning.




Whatever 90L becomes it will go north and out to Sea.
Basically, this is the trough crossing the Carib.





This leaves the Southern door open for the cattle to wander.
I had to pull a Thel with the squigglys...here's the real deal. Shows what I'm talking about.





Big dang trough.
Ambient pressures around the Central and Eastern Carib are lower also now.
Not scary....just lower than most the season so far.
So, someone left the south gate open and I'm thinking some cattle might escape. Now, go ahead and rip this to shreads!
What else do you weather Geeks have to do?
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW S
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS MAINLY SW/WLY AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CENTERED
ALONG 12N. A WEAK LOW ALONG THE ITCZ IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE
NICARAGUAN COAST NEAR 11N88W BUT THE STRONG ELY FLOW IS SHEARING
ALL DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS W. ONSHORE FLOW SE OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST AIR TOWARDS NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.

NOGAPS favors bringing some of this Pacific stuff across into the Carib under Cuba.



Yeah, that's a weak low alright.
This is what happens to most cold fronts in October:

THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD MOVED INTO THE AREA
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO FIZZLE AND IS NOW ONLY A
DIFFUSE LINE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 22N130W 23N140W.
Here's our little friend 90L....that was forecasted to be ripped to shreds last Saturday.




Interesting weather over the virgin islands like our poster Randy has posted. The monster front which was advertised now seems it will lackluster and die over Florida. This is according to our weather forecaster on TV The water is still very warm all is needed is a temporary slacking of the uppper level winds. Hey you have a nice day. On a sadder note I believe this Iraq thing is worse than ever I feel sorry for the innocent families in the middle of the mess. We need to get out of there now.
322. GDFTR
roger that
Sandcrab needs to talk to me this morning.
Well if the Crab ever wakes up....he should observe the WV Loop.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WSW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW S OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION CENTERED ALONG 11N WITH A MAJOR FLAREUP
IN CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF MEXICO NEAR 15N95W. QUIKSCAT DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...BUT NO
CLOSED CIRCULATIONS HAVE YET EMERGED FROM THE WLY WIND ZONE S OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.
ONSHORE FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST
AIR TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA.
Anyone interested in the Tropics can talk about it on my blog. This sucker is dead!
Ok,I'm getting a headache running back and forth between these two blogs, Randrewl blog is where its at if you want to know whats up with the tropics.
Randrewl-

Your thoughts on the NOGAPS which persists on development in the Caribbean with eventual threats to the Cayman Islands, Cuba and South Florida? This model has been very consistent with this scenario.
New TORNADO WATCH BOX...Link
329. IKE
Hey Randrewl...U've been talking to yourself on here this morning! Tropics are dead and over.
OK Ike....take a look around.
331. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:56 AM CDT on October 19, 2006.

OK Ike....take a look around.


I did...for the northern GOM...it's over.
I wouldn't say it's completely over yet. Let's see if the NOGAPS solution verifies. That will probably be the last stand if it does.

Even a TD would make one more storm to follow and if the shear relaxes and remains relaxed in that area as the GFS forecasts, we may have one more system to watch.
Morning All,
Pressure in the Turks and Caicos 1008 this morning ....
I know those pressures have dropped. Pretty much all over the Carib and West Atlantic.
But Ike says it's over!!!! See ya.
NoGaLinkps 48 hr..
Guys- Not sure if anyone mentioned this yesterday since I was not on the blog, but check this story out. It was the front page headline yesterday in the Tampa Tribune. I saw it while waiting in the checkout line in Publix and I about laughed out loud!!!

Link
Shirts???????
Yeah guys, we're famous!
LOL.."all Fame..is Fleeting"...Patton.
Yeah Pat, fleeting much like the life span of our Invests this season:-)
Glad I'm not in the Turks and Caicose this morning (was there last week though - GORGEOUS). This storm is a done deal huh?
wuba sells shirts? Or is it just the patch? (as she sits here with credit card in hand)
Update from SWLA.

We're in the thick of it right now. Heavy rain, constant lightning/thunder. Winds didn't get too bad. I ventured out as it approached...saw the blue green flashes of a transformer going.

My wife had to head out in the worst of it, she's a teacher.

The streets are flooding as there was no room for anymore water. Yesterday's flooding was pretty bad on our roads.

I've unplugged due to lightning...going on battery.
that is the greatest article ever nash!! BTW good morning everyone it's nice to see you all here bloggin away... :P
article was neat. I found this place by accident. Stay quiet 4 most part have learned alot 2. been weather addict since kid.mom had barometer on wall, would tap 2 see if it was fallin, when we acted crappy as kids.lol.the bickerin' in here brings a comparison of senarios to the learnin process. I like it.
Stay safe ..SWLA..keepa ya feets dry!
Yeah, I really enjoyed reading the article.

I especially loved the fact that they included the "wishcasting" word in the article:-)
Heres the SEVERELink listings page now..
Nash....Am I seeing things?
yeh when I saw wishcast I immediately thought of the bickering that took place when Chris formed.
I am seeing it too Rand. That thing refuses to die.
wow so they've put 90L back up eh?? For a storm said to be dead last weekend it sure isn't dieing off so quick. It's got alot of heart I'll give it that.
I just sent out an E-mail thanking the Writer from the Tampa tribune..for the WUBA nation article..along with a link of course...LOL
mornin everybody..... 90L is back.....

90l has been makin my life a little wet for just about two weeks now with pressure reaching as low as 999 ml on my personal weather station several times this week 90l is a real trooper deserves a pat on the back
Whew...It wasn't there a half hour ago!
LOL they arent sentient....Just etheral...90L survives to fight again...
Put some decorations on there will you Thel....this one deserves some artwork.
Glad I'm not in the Turks and Caicose this morning (was there last week though - GORGEOUS). This storm is a done deal huh?

Why not? There's nary a cloud in the entire archipelago (Bahamas / Turks). The system to the east doesn't look like it's headed this way either.
The navys ghost of 90L..Link
Plenty -o-shear to the North of 90L..Link
Not much here..Radars down too...figures.LOLLink
wonderful time for the PR radar to be down!





almost appears there is two circs...... the smaller may have the higher winds atm....





364. Relix
Ooooh... so its that piece of crap 90L which has been causing so much rain here in Puerto Rico. Yesterday the sub stopped because of the heavy t-storms and rain. Here @ my house the winds blew away a small tent I had put... >_<.
This time it is heading Southeast....But then there's the tracks.





I just have to laugh right out loud over this one! Thanks Thel.
i love it when the actual motion doesnt match the models! LOL

90L wont be around long..for sure..again...too much Fall in the way now..
Looks to be moving East...Link
So far this one has gone every direction except where they said it was going!
LMAO!
the BAMD is interesting! LOL
LOL....this is past interesting....just DIE sucker!
hard to tell, but to me, the xtrap looks pretty close......
Yeah, on the WV it's heading in that direction that I can see.
pressure in san juan earlier this morning was 29.69, but appears to be rising, and last report 29.78......
Nobody here really knows what the hell to say. Yesterday morning they were like "it wont be too bad today, no floods..." and come the PM it was commin down by the bucket and the entire east coast was without power last night... now they say that tomorrow the blob over the BVI/USVI will move west again and come back over land... again.
Why would they say that? Does anyone really see that happening, considering it going SE now?
benirica....I don't see this moving West anytime soon....but I will not be quoted on that.....This one's going wherever it wants!
lol... dont five it too much thought it was the crazy weather lady that said it... the others didnt say much about it. this crazy one is always negative, shes the one that always seems to see a hurricane heading right towards Puerto Rico.
OK beni. I just hope this one evaporates.
I know you must be sick of it.
definately. i dont have any shoes left for this week. lol, they are all soaked and waiting for the sun to come dry them
there does appear to be some circ north of the Domincan Republic that could affect PR.... trying to figure out if it ULL or LL circ there.....
The blob SW of 90L could be potential storm NOGAP is seeing developing this weekend.
Im into my 3rd Tornado Watch in ..heck I dont remember..days...The air mass here is like ..er Troipical...And this spooky line..marching our way..Link
92E we sould keep a eye on 92E as well look where its at i dont no what way 92E is moveing but it looks like it going to be moveing right overe a vary small part of MX so it looks like we need to watch 92E as well
lol
Hey Randrewl..ya like the Saintsations pics..?
Yes, Taz...we need to watch that one.
Great pics Pat!
TORNADO WARNING! corrected..MISSISSIPPI..new orleans issuance...Link
The local info..Link


there does seem to be an area or two we need to watch as well....... besides 90L.....

Yeah Rand..sandcrab should be commended big time.The disc with the video from Ocean Springs..during the storm..and the Recons right after..POWERFUL stuff.....have 2more disc to look at yet
Good day all...
I don't usually post much and I don't have that extensive knowledge of models and their projections etc... but i noticed that Patrap just mentioned some other areas that probably bear watching... East of the Windwards was one of them - I live in Grenada btw - so that interests me...

But also, did anyone notice the blob that just came off Africa? in October no less? Does anyone have any maps that show pressure around that area?

Thank you
I'm sorry the poster of the pic and the comment was thelmores
looks like 90l is finnaly moving away from PR
eyestoplogo1left.jpg

...something "mysterious" in the Caribbean air? The "big, smelly fellow" may be lingering around.

Looks like we're looking for another round of severe weather today. Just one more day then, TGIF!!! All have a good one, TTYL.
TORNADO WARNING..MississippiLink
Thanks, Patrap! Looks like the line is flaring up big time, little warmer in an hour or two, probably going to get worse shortly. Catch you later.