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Quiet tropics; aftermath of Gonu

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2007

The tropical Atlantic continues to be quiet, which is typical for this time of year. Wind shear across the June breeding grounds for June tropical systems--the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamian waters--is expected to remain high this week, which should discourage any tropical storms from forming. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical development this week. Unless there's a significant change, I won't discuss the tropics until Friday, when I'll post my bi-monthly Atlantic hurricane season outlook.

Tropical Cyclone Gonu
While I was away on vacation last week, a rather remarkable Category 5 cyclone developed in the Arabian Sea and struck Oman and Iran. Gonu is the first Category 4 or higher storm recorded in the Arabian Sea since the satellite era began in 1970. The last significant tropical cyclone to affect Oman was in 1890, when a storm hit the Gulf of Oman coast and Muscat, killing 700 people. Lesser cyclones affected the area in 1945 and 1977. The View From the Surface blog has an excellent summary of the aftermath of Gonu.


Figure 1. Rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite for the 8-day period May 31-June 7, 2007. Some regions of Oman and Iran received 200 mm (8 inches) of rain from the storm, equal to double their average annual rainfall. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NO EYE :)
aww I wouldn't say that, fury. Shear has certainly weakened in the Caribbean and the sea surface temps have waxed.
I think that it is waiting till I take my finals this week to develop so I have less time to pay attn. to the development :(
Hurry up and take your Finals, then. For the tropics' sake.
I just look in the mirror and i swear i saw an eye.lol
To be honest i think everything is setting up in the atlantic.
Shear must drop a little bit,SST has to warm a little bit.
So my true guess for a hurricane landfall is july 20.But hey,who nows for sure?
I think i see an eye again.
Strange for june.
July 20? That's LATE, considering that the first hurricane landfall of 2005 was in EARLY July.
Edit: sorry for the double post.

We need development. I'm about to get hysterical with all of this evil chuietness.
My last final is next Tuesday I hope it waits till at least monday so I can see the good part
Where do you live Thunder?
normal = suck

seriously
Rochester, NY
So you won't get hit by any hurricanes, Thunder.
soon enough = the second of July or earlier
Dallas, Texas. : )
No not any Hurricanes unless a cat 5 stricks New York and continues to the west but I do get a lot of reminents I got 4 in of rain from Barry to end our mini drought of .24 in of rain the entire month of May.
I go for 4 hurricanes in the GOM.
Between mid july and end of september.
Two coming from the carrib. and two from africa.
Then you will see beautifull eyes.
Thundercloud, You Got Mail.

And what is that image supposed to mean?
the atlantic jet stream is messed up the atlantic jet stream is seriosly messed up
It is an eye!

aroughleague you have mail
you got more mail thunder
aroughleague-I thought you said you would cut the crap.
1034. IKE
aroughleague...you need to get a life and you need to be banned.
1035. IKE
That moisture in the NW Caribbean is forecast to make it to the northern GOM by early next week. Interested to see if anything can spin up.
1037. IKE
The latest CMC run spins up a TD/maybe a weak TS and has it making landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle...

Link
GFS showing the same thing but maybe a little farther south
Give me a link to the GFS please
Hey All
1041. Patrap
Meteosat-8 Split Window SAL
Link
we have'nt had rain in a month...so if anybody want's to send their access...please do..
Morning all.

G35 & Ike, I noticed that this morning. Just waiting to see if they stick with that trend over the next couple of days.

Back to work. y'all have a great day

Models, imagery, marine data, preparedness info and much more....Quick Links
1044. PBG00
How serious is the possibility of the quick stat failing. I have been reading all the hype on it. Would it be as deveastating as they say? And if so..why did they let this happen?
1045. Srt4Man
Posted By: PBG00 at 12:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2007.

How serious is the possibility of the quick stat failing. I have been reading all the hype on it. Would it be as deveastating as they say? And if so..why did they let this happen?


They Let this happen because "we" the public dont pay enough attention to our government, we also dont hold our government accountable either.

Social apathy(sp?) is the reason why there was nothing done about the aging satalite.
good morning all from the rainy Caymans. Surface pressure here is 1011 and further to our S it is 1009. Been raining all night
The Caribbean has low shear until about 16N but if conditions improve into the NW portion and the unsettled weather hangs around we could see some development nearer to the weekend. There is a ULL dropping down over Georgia that is already producing shear over Cuba

1047. Patrap
Thats all hype..mostly.Quikscat is performing Nominally.Plus Cloudsat and many other Satelittes give a great amount of Data.There are many follow on sats to come online in the coming Years. Quikscat isnt falling from the sky like a bucket of bolts. Its been a long lived sat with great staying Power.Link
1048. Patrap
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY..scroll down for QUIKSCAT data

Link
1049. IKE
Latest 06Z GFS model run...

Link
1050. Patrap
Hey Kman,,IKE
Good morning Pat

Looks like the NW Caribbean is trying to fire up a bit
1052. PBG00
So no replacement for nine years? Is that a money thing> Does it take nine years to make and launch another one? Why weren't "we" notified earlier? I would think They have known it's number was coming up for a while now..There had to be someone who could scream fire and let people know..no?
1053. Patrap
That isnt the plan..or the correct info.The Quikscat is only one tool of many.Gee..all this over a sat..LOL. Weve got 10 Brave Humans on orbit .And the concern is for 1 piece of DATA collecting hardware,LOL..Now thats a funny gesture or irony in a nut-shell.Emphasis on the nut..LOL
1054. PBG00
Hi Pat..just read your post..thanks for the link
1055. Patrap
NW CArb is persistant .Thats one thing to note.
1056. IKE
That ULL dropping into north Florida appears to be moving SSE and should get kicked on out to sea.

And good morning everyone.
1057. Patrap
ANytime PBG00
1058. PBG00
They ran an article this morning on AOl about the severity of the situation..that other sattelites don't do as well and that the two day forecast would be off by 10% without it..
1059. IKE
The 2 buoys in the west/NW Caribbean...the pressures have fallen off in the last 24 hours.

1060. PBG00
oops
1061. Patrap
Thats the error anyway..10%.Quikscat is operational and cloudsat can do most of her obs too. Its the scatterometer thast they woory about losing. Its not irreplacable a follow on sat is in the planning phase. We wont be blind. SOme data will be unaccumalated. But its not what peple and the AP make the situ out to be.
1062. PBG00
Let me try that again
Well coffee time for me
BBL
1065. Patrap
Ive read the story.Its full of inaccuracies.Like most AP stories on Meteorology and other tech talk.
1066. Patrap
0730....appt time.Later on guys and gals.
Good Morning All...Much like yesterday, persistance in the NW Caribbean and models predicting some type of possible development in the next few days........Ike, if I read that GFS model correctly, does it spin up that possible system south of LA and then east into the Panhandle over the northen end of the Gulf? (BTW, while I live in Tally, I'm working in Bonifay for the next three days...Practically neighbors)..
1068. PBG00
O.K. then..I feel better now!
1069. IKE
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 7:30 AM CDT on June 13, 2007.
Good Morning All...Much like yesterday, persistance in the NW Caribbean and models predicting some type of possible development in the next few days........Ike, if I read that GFS model correctly, does it spin up that possible system south of LA and then east into the Panhandle over the northen end of the Gulf? (BTW, while I live in Tally, I'm working in Bonifay for the next three days...Practically neighbors)..


Yes and yeah, you're close if you're in Bonifay. I'm 25 miles west in Defuniak Springs where it poured yesterday afternoon.
Link
Came across this in our local newspaper this morning. I may have missed that y'all have already discussed this, but just in case you haven't seen the info, thought I would pass it along.
1071. IKE
The GFS has been persistent in bringing moisture into the northern and NE GOM early next week. Possible tropical low?
Thanks and we'll see on the development; I would hazard a guess that while the GFS called Barry correctly (about a week in advance), that we will have to see (if it does come to pass then GFS would be the model to watch over the next few weeks)...
1073. PBG00
scroll down to see what Pat said on the subject..Good stuff
1074. Drakoen
good morning everyone. The tropics are still relatively quiet. I am guessing that everyone is talking about the flare up of cenvection in the northern Caribbean. I still don't expect muxh to come out of the Caribbean, at the most a weak surface low. The shear is still pretty high runninng about 30 kts. The shear tendency does show that the shear is dropping of somewhat which may allow something to spin up there. Still it is a very disorganized system and notice how the convective activity is spread across the northern Caribbean.
1075. nash28
Actually, it was the CMC that called Barry correctly. The GFS was all over the road, and kept Barry as a weak low bringing it over S. FL.

Not trying to split hairs or anything.
1076. IKE
And the CMC shows a TD/TS making landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle next week...at the 144 hour mark..
South Florida should brace for an even worse round of severe weather today as we have the stationary boundary, the influx of deep tropical moisture from the south, and an upper level disturbance diving from GA south into FLA! May I say a few isolated tornadoes possible?! We got slammed yesterday. It looks like even the weather has started to pick up on the UFC craze and has been bare-naked chokeholding the Midwest with constant flooding! LOL
Good morning...

For folks in miami dade and broward counties if you have plans today get them done this morning because everything is setting up to be a wild afternoon.Adrian
1080. Drakoen
Good morning everyone.
Stay safe on the roads today S FL
the caribbean is getting active this morning
Link
A bit old but here is part of the discussion from 4am NWS out of miami.

MODELS
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR SFC TO H5, H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C,
DECENT H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET. ADD IN THE FACT THAT THE WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE AROUND 11000 FT, THE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL
BE QUITE ACTIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
INCLUDES LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE BOUNDARIES
INTERSECT.



think we have something brewing here! prime spot for this time of year! I would expect an invest out of this "witch's brew"!
Here is the entire forecast discussion. it will be worse than yesterday and I can't imagine how much worse it can get.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED FROM A VERO
BEACH TO TAMPA LINE. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY FAIRLY WELL. THIS FRONT IS THE RESULT OF
CONTINUED DIGGING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TEMPORARILY STALL. MODELS
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR SFC TO H5, H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C,
DECENT H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET. ADD IN THE FACT THAT THE WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE AROUND 11000 FT, THE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL
BE QUITE ACTIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
INCLUDES LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE BOUNDARIES
INTERSECT. MEAN FLOW WILL BE TO THE ESE AND THE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING EAST OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO 50-60% OVER THE AREA
TODAY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY BUT TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE. THE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL START MOVING NORTHWARD THURSDAY (EARLIER THAN EXPECTED) AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM. BUT MEAN
LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. PWAT`S WILL BE WELL ABOVE 2"
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SO BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY WET. PWAT`S
LOWER AGAIN TO LESS THAN 2" BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE.
It rained all around Pensacola yesterday.....Except where I am...
West-side down on Bayou Grande. Saw porpoise playing in the bayou yesterday while the "Blues" were practicing. On another note, anyone ever notice how clear the bays and bayous get when there is hardly any rain? The area waterwayss here are about as clear as they ever get...."Blues" just took off for their morning practice, guess I'll go watch them. Have a good day everybody.
If anything does develop in the Carribbean won't it sheared apart? I'm I missing something?
new blog!
1092. emagirl
good morning everyone