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Quiet tornado season wakes up; severe thunderstorm in India leaves 1 million homeless

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on April 23, 2010

After a record quiet start to the 2010 severe weather season, the atmosphere finally unleashed one of its classic violent spring weather days yesterday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tallied 32 tornado reports in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas. Fortunately, most of the storms occurred over uninhabited areas, and no injuries or major damage were reported. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver, has the details on the action in his blog today. The action was focused in a region the Storm Prediction Center had put in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather in yesterday's outlook. This was the first "Moderate Risk" region declared so far this year, which is a record for the latest day in the year this has occurred. According to Rich Thompson, a forecaster at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the previous record latest date for a "Moderate Risk" severe weather day was March 21, 2005. So, we beat the previous record by an entire month, which is a remarkable feat. There has been only one tornado death so far this year, the lowest death toll this far into the season on record. Typically, about half of the 80 or so tornado deaths we average per year have occurred by this point in the season. Yesterday's preliminary tornado count of 32 came close matching the preliminary U.S. tornado count for the entire month of March--36. March was the fourth-quietest March for tornado activity since record keeping began in 1950. The three-year average for March tornadoes is 138. One reason for the quiet tornado season has been the "upside down" winter and early spring we've experienced over North America over the past 3 1/2 months. Temperatures in Canada have been the warmest on record during this period, but have been unusually cold over the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico. Since the instability that severe thunderstorms need to occur comes from warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico encountering cold, dry air from Canada, this year's unusual "upside down" configuration has led to a much more stable than usual atmosphere over tornado alley in the U.S.


Figure 1. Doppler radar storm-relative velocity of the mile-wide tornado that affected western Kansas at 4:40 MDT April 22, 2010. No damage or injuries were reported from the tornado. A second tornado's Doppler radar signature is also visible at the bottom of the image.

Another severe weather outbreak expected today and Saturday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined another "Moderate Risk" region of concern for severe weather today, this time centered over Arkansas, Mississippi, and northern Louisiana (Figure 2.) Tomorrow, the action moves eastwards and will be centered over Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This 3-day severe weather event will probably end up being one of the most significant of the year. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will blog about today's action after it is over. As usual, you can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our interactive tornado page and our severe weather page..


Figure 2. Severe weather risk areas for Friday April 23, 2010.

Tornado and associated severe weather leave 1 million homeless in India
The U.S. has the world's most violent and numerous tornadoes, but second place goes to Bangladesh and eastern India. There, warm moist air from the Bay of Bengal often encounters cold, dry air from the Himalayas, setting up the instability needed to support severe thunderstorms. On Tuesday, April 13, and very unstable airmass (CAPE values > 3000) with strong westerly wind shear set up over eastern India, providing the classic set-up for supercell thunderstorms. Radar loops from the Kolkatta radar that day show a severe thunderstorm formed over extreme northeast India, near the Bangladesh border, and moved southeast into Bangladesh. The thunderstorm appeared to form a "bow echo", a configuration that often generates strong winds in excess of hurricane force near the bowed-out portion of the radar echo. Winds of 75 mph affected a large area of densely populated land, killing 137, severely damaging or destroying 200,000 homes, and leaving 1 million homeless. A weak tornado may have accompanied the storm. This may be the greatest number of people ever left homeless by a severe thunderstorm in world history.


Figure 3. Radar image from the Kolkatta Regional Meteorological Centre of the Indian Meteorological Department, showing the severe thunderstorm that killed 137 people and left 1 million homeless. Thanks go to Steve Nesbitt of UIUC for saving this image.

Jeff Masters
Into the Abyss
Into the Abyss
A little more than April showers... These storms delivered tornadoes and 6 inches of hail! SPC can't seem to figure out that the front range loves these kinds of weather setups.
Funnel at Jericho Texas
Funnel at Jericho Texas
Did not get to the ground.
Second Groom, TX Tornado
Second Groom, TX Tornado
This is about the best that the tornado ever looked. It was on the ground for a few minutes, before it lifted, and then briefly touched down again.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting senselessoptimism:
Wow beaten by like a second!

I live in Dayton, OH.


It will probably be more of a rain event for Dayton, but don't rule anything out.
Dangerous line of storms in SD, take cover.
What does TWC stand for?

Could some thunderstorms hit S. Ontario tonight? And I'm still looking for the links of the news reports for the Yazoo tornado.
Quoting Jeff9641:
This may rival the 1974 Outbreak. Another surge in tornadoes will develope later today in the Ohio Valley and across AL & GA.

Long way to go for that...



I have doubts that we will get anywhere near 148 tornadoes.
Unconfirmed Fatality reports in Yazoo City by the TWC. Tornado just of northwest of Vernon, AL. This tornado is 3 miles away from Vernon.
Quoting MrstormX:


It will probably be more of a rain event for Dayton, but don't rule anything out.


how about Indiana?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Long way to go for that...



I have doubts that we will get anywhere near 148 tornadoes.


For the last few days yes! We will probably have another 20 to 40 tornadoes over the next 24 hours.
Quoting MrstormX:


It will probably be more of a rain event for Dayton, but don't rule anything out.


Uh oh, perhaps I should have asked before I started talking to my family about the weather!

(My mom is running about putting all her valuables and such in our laundry room [furthest interior room]).

Better safe than sorry I guess.
1009. Drakoen
Quoting senselessoptimism:
Wow beaten by like a second!

I live in Dayton, OH.


Primarily a rain event
EMS is reporting several if not more fatalities. Guys this is very seriuos.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Long way to go for that...



I have doubts that we will get anywhere near 148 tornadoes.

I say between Th-Su, there may be a total of 75-90 individual Tornadoes, maybe 200 Tornado reports total.

I do not believe this will be as bad as 1974.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
What does TWC stand for?

Could some thunderstorms hit S. Ontario tonight? And I'm still looking for the links of the news reports for the Yazoo tornado.

TWC- The Weather Channel.
Quoting tornadodude:


how about Indiana?


Depends on where you live, but humidty values are high and NWS Chicago and NWS Indianapolis predict Isolated Severe thunderstorms to develop later today.
Not sure if Oz is in Yazoo but Reed Timmer is and he shows some horrible damage there.
Quoting MrstormX:


Depends on where you live, but humidty values are high and NWS Chicago and NWS Indianapolis predict Isolated Severe thunderstorms to develop later today.


Well I live in West Lafayette, but have family down in southern Indiana
Quoting skepticall2:
Not sure if Oz is in Yazoo but Reed Timmer is and he shows some horrible damage there.


TornadoVideos.net right?
Quoting Bordonaro:

I say between Th-Su, there may be a total of 75-90 individual Tornadoes, maybe 200 Tornado reports total.

I do not believe this will be as bad as 1974.


How many more towns need to be destroyed to say this isn't as bad as 1974. Town after town in the south are getting destroyed right now. Damage now north of Vernon, AL.
Quoting MrstormX:


TornadoVideos.net right?


Yea. Timmer is in Yazoo others are in other places.
1019. Drakoen
Watch out in eastern Tennessee around Paris, Atwood, and Humboldt, radar indicates these storms producing hail 1-2 inches and dbz maximums between 63 and 67.

1020. beell
T-storm complex in western TN may provide another long-track on its southern edge. Similar set up. Farther north.

Although his car is stationary right this minute just wait till he gets moving again.
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I live in West Lafayette, but have family down in southern Indiana


I think I met you here a few weeks ago, Im South of I-80 in Illinois not to far from Chicago Heights. I don't expect much but once you go farther south to places like Champaign or Vincennes the chances would likely increase.
Quoting beell:
T-storm complex in western TN may provide another long-track on its southern edge. Similar set up. Farther north.



Expect another blow up of tornadoes soon. Across SE MISS, AL, FL Panhandle, and SW GA.
Quoting MrstormX:


I think I met you here a few weeks ago, Im South of I-80 in Illinois not to far from Chicago Heights. I don't expect much but once you go farther south to places like Champaign or Vincennes the chances would likely increase.


yeah I remember now, and yeah I figured the farther south the better the chances of seeing some storms... the one weekend I stay at Purdue and leave my car at home is the weekend I could have gone chasing, figures right?
Quoting Jeff9641:


How many more towns need to be destroyed to say this isn't as bad as 1974. Town after town in the south are getting destroyed right now. Damage now north of Vernon, AL.


It might be more like the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak, then '74.
Quoting Bordonaro:

One long-track Tornado has traveled from W LA, through the entire state of MS, now getting ready to cross into AL.

Yazoo City, MS took a direct hit, severe damage, many injuries, and that area is now experiencing the strongest daytime heating.

Up to 33, correction 36 Tornado Reports and counting!!


hey bord,

so will the rest of the systems coming off the gulf continue this pattern?
1028. Drakoen
GOES-East 4km Visible:

1029. Patrap


704
WFUS54 KBMX 242010
TORBMX
ALC057-075-093-242045-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0015.100424T2010Z-100424T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINFIELD...HAMILTON...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SULLIGENT...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAMAR COUNTY
AIRPORT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEAVERTON BY 315 PM CDT...
GUIN BY 325 PM CDT...
GU-WIN BY 330 PM CDT...
WINFIELD BY 335 PM CDT...
BRILLIANT BY 340 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES...
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 11 THROUGH 34

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.



TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3414 8820 3424 8764 3386 8764 3376 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 249DEG 36KT 3389 8808
from MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36755249/ns/weather
1031. beell
Quoting Drakoen:
Some nasty cells in northeastern Mississippi with mid level lapse rates 7-7.5C/km. Lifted index values -5 to -7 and a SBCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg according to the SPC Mesoanalysis page. Radar reporting 1.25in hail within the cell near Ackeman.


Same cell as the Yazoo City Storm. Pretty much crossed the entire state as a singular entity.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ILZ042>057-061-251100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
309 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
THIS EVENING...AS THE DEEPENING LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN GUST TO OVER
30 MPH AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

$$
2 official fatalities are confirmed now in Rural MISS.
Egg size hail has been reported in Mobile, AL.
What a tornado...
1037. Drakoen
Quoting beell:


Yea, check out these high storm relative helicity values:



1935
FREEMAN, SD
GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES DEEP. LARGEST STONES UP TO QUARTER SIZED. (FSD)
Is the Yazoo tornado one tornado or a tornado family, im quite curious. Gosh this is a long track...
1040. Levi32
Quoting kimoskee:


For us non-weather people trying to keep up please explain (and yes I'm the one at the back of the class with the dunce cap)


An anticyclonic eddy is simply an area of high sea-surface heights (the water within the eddy is a little higher than the water around it). This is generally the result of deep warm water, which tends to expand and thus deepen the water column relative to the surrounding ocean. You then get a little "hill" in the water surface....gravity pulls water down the sides of this hill, but the coriolis force causes the water to curve to the right, causing it to flow clockwise around the hill, forming the eddy. This is very similar to how air behaves flowing away from a high pressure system, which is why we call this an "anticyclonic" eddy.
Quoting MrstormX:
Is the Yazoo tornado one tornado or a tornado family, im quite curious. Wow thats a long track...
1042. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Brandon, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

40 frame Loop



Quoting MrstormX:
Is the Yazoo tornado one tornado or a tornado family, im quite curious. Gosh this is a long track...


Good question! It is one tornado that skipped (dropped and then went back up and then dropped again)the whole way across LA, Miss, & now AL.
Quoting MrstormX:
Is the Yazoo tornado one tornado or a tornado family, im quite curious. Gosh this is a long track...

Same parent Super-cell, it may in fact be a continuous long-track Tornado.


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MATTOON ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...WW 95...WW 96...

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SW OF STL MOVING NNEWD TO NEAR
UIN THIS EVENING WITH VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MODEST...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG KINEMATICS WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
BOTH QLCS LINEAR MODE AND POSSIBLE DISCRETE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO
WIND DAMAGE TORNADO'S ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER MODE AS ACTIVITY
MOVES/DEVELOP N/E ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...HALES
Just turned on The Weather Channel and seeing the breaking news about the major storm outbreak in the GOM states. Looks like Mississippi and Alabama got hit big time. Maybe the Northern parts of Louisiana also.

I was just telling my son yesterday that I thought that the NWS comment on the quite Spring that we were having was ill advised and ill timed. Sure enough, all h**l is breaking out. I hope everyone is staying safe.
Quoting Levi32:


An anticyclonic eddy is simply an area of high sea-surface heights (the water within the eddy is a little higher than the water around it). This is generally the result of deep warm water, which tends to expand and thus deepen the water column relative to the surrounding ocean. You then get a little "hill" in the water surface....gravity pulls water down the sides of this hill, but the coriolis force causes the water to curve to the right, causing it to flow clockwise around the hill, forming the eddy. This is very similar to how air behaves flowing away from a high pressure system, which is why we call this an "anticyclonic" eddy.


Like a hurricane under water?
Wow atmospheric conditions are starting to deteriorate in central illinois. The cumulus their is showing vertical development, and a tornado watch just issued.
1049. Patrap
Yazoo Radar View,,12:22 CDT approx.

Smoothed images

Quoting Bordonaro:

Same parent Super-cell, it may in fact be a continuous long-track Tornado.


Eyewitness reports said it went up and then back down as it pushed past Yazoo City.
Unbelievable pictures of devastation on CNN of one Mississippi community.
Webcam Shot of Severe T'storm near Sioux Falls.

37 total Tornado Reports from SPC.

The Long-Track Tornado from the Yazoo City, MS episode has weakened, no recent tornado reports. That cell traveled across W LA and all of MS producing Tornadoes, amazing storm.
Quoting Bordonaro:
37 total Tornado Reports from SPC.

The Long-Track Tornado from the Yazoo City, MS episode has weakened, no recent tornado reports. That cell traveled across W LA and all of MS producing Tornadoes, amazing storm.


Yes it would seem the first half of the outbreak has come to a close, but now the Ohio River Valley is next.
Quoting Bordonaro:
37 total Tornado Reports from SPC.

The Long-Track Tornado from the Yazoo City, MS episode has weakened, no recent tornado reports. That cell traveled across W LA and all of MS producing Tornadoes, amazing storm.

Hopefully, the line will not drop any/as many tornadoes as it starts pushing towards the NE into more populated areas such as Moble, Montgomery, Atlanta where the storms are aligned right now from SW to NE headed in that direction.
1057. Levi32
Quoting kimoskee:


Like a hurricane under water?


I suppose you could say that....it's an eddy, rotating like a storm, but in an anticyclonic fashion, which means it's rotating in the opposite direction (clockwise) of a hurricane or any other storm in the northern hemisphere (counterclockwise).
Two reported fatalities in Yazoo City, MS reported by LiveStream 33/40 out of AL.
Really nasty cell headed toward Evansville, IL right now....
Quoting Levi32:


I suppose you could say that....it's an eddy, rotating like a storm, but in an anticyclonic fashion, which means it's rotating in the opposite direction (clockwise) of a hurricane or any other storm in the northern hemisphere (counterclockwise).


That would not make very good boating weather. Thanks for the explanation!
Where did everyone go?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Really nasty cell headed toward Evansville, IL right now....

yeah
Quoting MrstormX:
Where did everyone go?

That's a good question!!
Tornado Warning central MO
I'm still here but having some sever weather going through right now

Taco :0(
1066. Levi32
Quoting kimoskee:


That would not make very good boating weather. Thanks for the explanation!


It's rotating at like 5 m/s...same as the rest of the current flowing through the Caribbean. That's not going to overturn a boat lol. It's not like a storm out there just an eddy....but it can represent an area of very high ocean heat content that could help a hurricane rapidly intensify should one move over it.
1067. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea, check out these high storm relative helicity values:





The low is nearing occlusion.
So the RUC is having a some "feedback" issues lol
TORNADO WARNINGS NOW FOR W TN:
TORNADO WARNING
TNC017-023-039-077-109-113-242130-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0023.100424T2048Z-100424T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HENDERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HENDERSON...LEXINGTON...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST AND NATCHEZ
TRACE STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BEECH LAKE...PIN OAK LAKE AND
PINE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&
I'm still here. But I haven't got a clue about the weather.
1070. ackee
Quoting Levi32:


It's rotating at like 5 m/s...same as the rest of the current flowing through the Caribbean. That's not going to overturn a boat lol. It's not like a storm out there just an eddy....but it can represent an area of very high ocean heat content that could help a hurricane rapidly intensify should one move over it.
how fast does an eddy move ?
1072. SQUAWK
Nastiest cell is going to go between Evansville and Bowling Green....Some intense storms in that particular cell which is NE of Nashville at the moment....
Illinois is starting to spiral downhill.



1075. Drakoen
Quoting ackee:
how fast does an eddy move ?


He said it in that same post 5 meters per second
1076. SQUAWK
Associated Press
- April 24, 2010
2 Dead After Tornado Strikes Western Mississippi

The 3/4-mile wide tornado touched down Saturday and roared across at least three counties in west-central Mississippi, damaging several buildings.


YAZOO CITY, Miss. -- A tornado touched down Saturday in rural Mississippi, killing two people, injuring several others and ripping the tops off buildings, the mayor of Yazoo City said.
The 3/4-mile wide tornado roared across at least three counties in west-central Mississippi.

Mayor McArthur Straughter said the county coroner confirmed the deaths.

"It's devastating. All of the buildings up in this area have had the roof torn off," said Straughter, estimating about 15 to 20 buildings had been heavily damaged.

Power lines and trees were down, blocking roads, Straughter said by telephone as sirens whined in the background. At least four people had been brought by four-wheeler to a triage center at an old discount store parking lot in the town about 40 miles north of Jackson.

Three counties were conducting a "massive response," Mississippi Emergency Management Agency spokesman Greg Flynn said.

Jim Pollard, a spokesman for American Medical Response ambulance service, said the company dispatched 11 ambulances to Yazoo City. He confirmed one person with significant injuries was airlifted to a Jackson hospital. He said at least four people were taken to hospitals by ambulance.
Willie M. Horton, 78, said he hunkered down in the hallway of his house in rural Holmes County.

"Everything is down. A lot of trees. Big trees," Horton said.

He said his sister-in-law's house nearby was damaged, and a nephew's mobile home was carried away by the storm.

"My cousin -- half his barn is gone," Horton said.

The severe storms swept across the Southeast, darkening skies and dumping rain on the region. Many areas were under tornado watches or warnings at some point during the day.

The weather hampered crews trying to clean up an oil spill after an offshore rig exploded earlier this week off the coast of Louisiana. Several sporting events and festivals also were rescheduled.

In Mississippi, the tornado struck Valley Park, Yazoo City and Durant, said Mark McAllister, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Jackson.

"Everything is closed off. It's hard to get emergency personnel in there," he said.

The storms also damaged a church in east-central Mississippi and caused minor damage at Olive Branch Middle School in DeSoto County, just south of Memphis, Tenn. A possible tornado was reported in Alabama, damaging homes and downing trees but causing no injuries.

In Louisiana, storms damaged a tank at a chemical plant near Tallulah. Louisiana State Police Sgt. James Martin says plant officials don't know of any chemicals leaking from the plant itself.
1078. Drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:


He said it in that same post 5 meters per second


Which is wrong. The eddy in the Caribbean moves around .4 to .5 m/s



1079. beell
This one is pretty slow...

1080. Levi32
Quoting ackee:
how fast does an eddy move ?


The eddy itself moves through the ocean at a much slower rate than the water flowing through it.



Quoting Drakoen:


Which is wrong. The eddy in the Caribbean moves around .4 to .5 m/s





Yeah I made a random guess because the navy site was down for the last 30 minutes for me. Couldn't get the map.
1081. SQUAWK
oo

1082. Drakoen
1083. aquak9
Bad beell...bad...
1085. Drakoen
Compare post 1082 to this from 2005:

5 metres per second is still 18kilometres per hour, and ya'd burn a lotta fuel just staying stationary against an 11mph current.

Edit -- And as usual, I ended up posting well after corrections had already been made by others.
0.4to0.5 metres per second is ~0.9to~1.1 miles per hour
News not too good coming out of Mississippi


Drake, those SST graphics are not good.
they are scary.
1088. aquak9
hi gams, I just poseted in your blog, hahaha

Bo- tell me this is dying down, right? PLEASE?

And Taco2me- I don't thinkI've ever seen you w/a frowney face before...please check back in...
1089. beell
1083.
As Mobal would say..."Good".
1091. Drakoen
Quoting seflagamma:
New not too good coming out of Mississippi


Drake, those SST graphics are not good.
they are scary.


This year so far definitely beats 2005 in the Sea Surface Temperatures
Quoting aquak9:
hi gams, I just poseted in your blog, hahaha

Bo- tell me this is dying down, right? PLEASE?

And Taco2me- I don't thinkI've ever seen you w/a frowney face before...please check back in...

The systems in MS into AL are quite active. However, the threat remains pretty high in MS, AL, FL, TN, MO, IL, TN and KY for several more hours till sundown.
1093. aquak9
I might be slow, but not as slow as an Eddie...

beell- is this gonna die down?

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
ILC119-163-MOC099-189-510-242200-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0024.100424T2125Z-100424T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MEHLVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKLAND...AFFTON...LEMAY...GLENDALE...WEBSTER GROVES...WARSON
WOODS...DUPO...FRONTENAC...SHREWSBURY...BRENTWOOD...LADUE...
MAPLEWOOD...RICHMOND HEIGHTS...CLAYTON...OLIVETTE...CAHOKIA...
UNIVERSITY CITY...OVERLAND...ST. LOUIS AND ST. ANN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 9022 3852 9026 3852 9027 3844 9029
3842 9031 3840 9033 3850 9051 3878 9037
3865 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 215DEG 38KT 3854 9034

$$

GKS







1095. Patrap
Lower Plaquemines

Coastal Flood Warning

Statement as of 4:27 PM CDT on April 24, 2010



... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until midnight CDT
tonight...


Strong and persistent southerly flow has pushed tidal water deep
into the Barataria Bay and the bayous that drain into the
Barataria Bay. Plaquemines Parish officials have indicated that
high water is within 2 inches of overtopping a levee at the Citrus
land area near Jesuit Bend. Other low lying areas... particularly
outside the hurricane protection levee system... may be
experiencing inundation at this time or incur some flooding
through the remainder of the evening. Strong south winds are
expected to persist until a cold front brings a shift in the winds
from the west later this evening. At the given speed of the cold
front... currently located near Baton Rouge and Franklin... it
should move east of the warned area shortly after 11 PM.

Plaquemines Parish officials have initiated sand bagging
operations along the threaten levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.


1096. Levi32
Widespread convection continues to persist in the eastern Pacific. Significant mid-level rotation is apparent on satellite imagery near 7N, 86.5W. Surface winds per ASCAT/WINDSAT indicate a broad area of cyclonic wind flow in the area, but nothing consolidated yet as a sharp convergence zone at the surface extends northwestward away from the center of mid-level turning to about 10N, 88W.



700mb Vorticity per CIMSS analysis:



850mb Vorticity per CIMSS Analysis:



Visible Satellite (click image for loop)



Good Afternoon/Evening everyone, what a blow up south of Panama and Costa Rica, we need some rain here in the NW Caribbean, any chances it might get pulled northward?
1098. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Oh crap!

Hey Drak! Good to see you!


Hey StormW...

The signs continue to point for a rather active year. I see it easily fitting into one of the most active years. The question is where will it fall...

Link
1099. aquak9
thanks, bordonaro. I was posting same time as you.

Hoping this, has gotta die down. I've had enough for the day. So have many others.
1100. Patrap
For Lower Plaquemines,..winds and water become a enemy tonight.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
428 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 19 MILES WEST OF
LOBELVILLE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LOBELVILLE BY 445 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
1103. Patrap
One a sidenote,

Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 42056

Conditions at 42056 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 04/24/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 117 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.6 F
1104. aquak9
looks like another, on the ground or near it, about 15-20 miles west, southwest of Reform, AL. Fixin' to cross over the state line.
1105. beell
On the Southern End:

Still need to keep an eye on the complex in central MS. A visible that duplicates the radar grab SQUAK just posted below. The boundary still has potential before the storms cross over. 700mb temps have risen quite a bit-so a bit of a cap over the southern half of MS. Cooler 700mb temps along the AL coast.



LFC Heights


700mb Temps


Boundary
Photobucket
1106. Levi32
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Afternoon/Evening everyone, what a blow up south of Panama and Costa Rica, we need some rain here in the NW Caribbean, any chances it might get pulled northward?


It is very possible that sometime in 6-10 days some tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific could be pulled northward into the western Caribbean by a strong low to mid-level south to southwesterly flow over the western Carib and GOM that will develop during that time.
1107. Patrap
1108. Patrap
1109. Patrap
1110. bappit
From Merriam-Webster:

Main Entry: 1ed·dy
Pronunciation: \ˈe-dē\
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural eddies
Etymology: Middle English (Scots) ydy, probably from Old Norse itha
Date: 15th century
1 a : a current of water or air running contrary to the main current; especially : a circular current : whirlpool b : something moving similarly
2 : a contrary or circular current (as of thought or policy)
1111. xcool


Wind shear drop :)))
1112. Patrap


Yazoo City Tornado Kills Two in Mississippi
April 24, 2010 05:24 PM EDT (Updated: April 24, 2010 05:25 PM EDT)
views: 266


A massive tornado, reported to be 3/4 of a mile wide, killed two in Yazoo City, Mississippi. The Yazoo City tornado touched down Saturday, injuring dozens of others and ripping the tops off buildings. The tornado whizzed across at least three counties in West-Central Mississippi, heavily damaging at least 20 buildings.
An Associated Press news story reports that three counties were conducting a "massive response." Many Yazoo City residents turned to the weather channel to monitor the tornado on the weather radar.

TNA SST Chart
A total od 41 Tornado reports per SPC
1115. Patrap
Raw video,from Yazoo City This afternoon..

1116. Drakoen
There is also a big difference in the upper level circulations in 2005 and 2010. 2005 in April featured an upper level cyclonic circulation while 2010 is featuring an anticyclonic circulation which is favorable for the development of storms and a pattern forecasted to continue as we head into the heart of the season.


2005:




Figure 1. NCEP/NARR Reanalysis of the 200mb Vector Wind Speed Anomalies in m/s for April


2010


Figure 2. NCEP/CDAS Climatology 200mb Vector Wind Anomalies in m/s March 24 to April 22 2010


Quoting BenBIogger:
TNA SST Chart


WHat does TNA stand for?
1118. beell
Note the backed surface winds over W KY and S IL and the Surface low. This area is underneath a 60 knot LLJ.



1119. Patrap
Emg response raw unedited video from the Tornado..


AddressAmerica — April 24, 2010 — Tornado devistates portions of Mississippi. Video taken at Hwy 49 & Hwy 16 on the south side of Yazoo City.

Unbelieveable. While the storms will weaken, when they get to the Northeastern States, they will dump a whole heck of a lot of rain! 1 and a half to 2 inches can be expected there, in those states.

Breaking news from TWC: 2 deaths have been comfirmed in Yazoo City, Mississippi. I believe the NWS ruled the tornado a EF3/4.
1121. Drakoen
Quoting Snowlover123:


WHat does TNA stand for?


Tropical North Atlantic Index

The TNA is currently higher than it was in 2005:

Tornado Warning just to the North of St. Louis:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
443 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BERKELEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZELWOOD...FLORISSANT...SPANISH LAKE...BLACK JACK...WOOD RIVER...
ALTON...GODFREY...WEST ALTON...PORTAGE DES SIOUX...ELSAH AND
FOSTERBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting Snowlover123:
Unbelieveable. While the storms will weaken, when they get to the Northeastern States, they will dump a whole heck of a lot of rain! 1 and a half to 2 inches can be expected there, in those states.

Breaking news from TWC: 2 deaths have been comfirmed in Yazoo City, Mississippi. I believe the NWS ruled the tornado a EF3/4.

You may have 2-4" of rain tomorrow in the NE. The biggest risk tomorrow will be large hail and strong winds.
1124. Patrap
1125. Levi32
Still waiting for the Gulf of Guinea to cool down like the European model is forecasting it to do over the next couple months. The Gulf of Guinea started out warm in 2005 as well during the late winter, but became cooler than normal during the hurricane season which promotes increased and more northward ITCZ activity over western Africa.

SAT (South Atlantic Tropical Index) timeseries:



Current SST Anomalies:

It is starting to get windy here. This could be preliminary wind ahead of the cold front that is producing all of those severe cells.

UPDATE: It just began to rain here too...
Quoting Patrap:

Early Image of the Yazoo Tornado..



What did the tornado look like during it's "peak intensity?"
1128. Patrap
Radar from 12:23 approx CDT


I saved a "smoothed" file from earlier.

1129. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:
Still waiting for the Gulf of Guinea to cool down like the European model is forecasting it to do over the next couple months. The Gulf of Guinea started out warm in 2005 as well during the late winter, but became cooler than normal during the hurricane season which promotes increased ITCZ activity over western Africa.



Current SST Anomalies:



Yes, both the ECMWF and the Glosea forecast for that
Good Evening
Quoting Levi32:
Still waiting for the Gulf of Guinea to cool down like the European model is forecasting it to do over the next couple months. The Gulf of Guinea started out warm in 2005 as well during the late winter, but became cooler than normal during the hurricane season which promotes increased ITCZ activity over western Africa.



Current SST Anomalies:



Could this be the hottest water ever recorded for the Tropical Atlantic? (And no, this is not Globally) The whole Pacific looks fairly cold, while the Southern Indian Ocean is normal, and the Northern Atlantic is colder than normal. Global Heat content will collapse of 2011, what Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel is currently denying. He'll see... although it will probably be very warm during this summer, but get globally much colder during the winter months.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good Evening


And goodnight to you, and everyone.
For those who are new this season, this is basically why we think 2010 will be an active one.

Higher SSTs than 2005
Well above average TCHP in the Caribbean
Dying El Nino
Lower than average windshear
Feel free to add on. I'm sticking with a conservative forecast of 16/7/4
Seems like the IOD will stay positive throughout the season
1135. Levi32
The African Easterly Jet is also behaving similarly to 2005 in April, although it was much stronger in 2005 at this time. The positions, though, are nearly the same, a bit further south than normal in both years.

2005 April mean 600mb vector winds:



2010 April 1st-20th mean 600mb vector winds:

1136. Patrap


A tornado ripped through the Meehan area in Lauderdale County, Miss. on Saturday, April 24, 2010, leaving damage to the Green Grove Missionary Baptist Church. Most of Mississippi is under tornado watches and warnings Saturday as severe weather swept across the South.

Gov. Barbour tells AP tornado caused 'utter obliteration' to parts of 1 Miss. county; 2 killed

By HOLBROOK MOHR , Associated Press

Last update: April 24, 2010 - 5:03 PM


A tornado damaged the Green Grove Missionary Baptist Church in Meehan, Miss.



YAZOO CITY, Miss. - Tornadoes ripped through the Southeast on Saturday, killing two people in Mississippi and injuring more than a dozen others.

Gov. Haley Barbour told The Associated Press there was "utter obliteration" in parts of Yazoo County, an area where he is from. About 15 other counties were also damaged, he said.

The swath of debris forced rescuers to pick up some of the injured on all-terrain vehicles after a 3/4-mile wide tornado touched down in at least three counties in the west-central part of the state. Yazoo City Mayor McArthur Straughter said the county coroner confirmed the two deaths.

Tornadoes were also reported in Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama, and the severe weather continued to track eastward.

In Yazoo City about 40 miles north of Jackson, stunned residents stood on a hill overlooking the destruction. A National Guard helicopter sat nearby, waiting to Barbour on an aerial tour.

"Sad, man," said 22-year-old Rafael Scott, shaking his head. "It's really hard to believe it. I heard they found a couple of bodies."

Three broken crosses stood near a flattened church, and religious materials were scattered among twisted steel, broken wood and furniture. Near the church, a funeral home was reduced to rubble. In a nearby patch of woods, pieces of tin were twisted high up in the broken trees.

Straughter, the mayor, estimated about 15 to 20 buildings had been heavily damaged.

Downed power lines and trees blocked roads, Straughter said as sirens whined in the background. At least four people had been brought by four-wheeler to a triage center at an old discount store parking lot.

Three counties were conducting a massive response, Mississippi Emergency Management Agency spokesman Greg Flynn said.

Jim Pollard, a spokesman for American Medical Response ambulance service, said two patients from Yazoo County were airlifted to the University of Mississippi Medical Center in Jackson.
Drak,

Is there anyway to compare the levels and variance of the eddies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean basin?
1138. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:
The African Easterly Jet is also behaving similarly to 2005 in April, although it was much stronger in 2005 at this time. The positions, though, are nearly the same, a bit further south than normal in both years.

2005 April mean 600mb vector winds:



2010 April 1st-20th mean 600mb vector winds:



However, the following month, in May of 2005, the AEJ shifted significantly to the north, ending up further north than normal for that time of year. Interestingly enough, there is some model support for the ITCZ to shift significantly northward from its current southerly position over the Atlantic during the first week of May. This makes sense given the overall pattern as well.

May 2005 mean 600mb vector winds:

1139. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN MO AND CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...

VALID 242214Z - 242315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 97 CONTINUES.

EVOLVING QLCS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS
MOVING E-NEWD AT 30 KT ACROSS THE MS RIVER AT 22Z. INTENSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB PER HR/ ARE NOTED INVOF/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN MO...WITH STRONGLY BACKED ELY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF QLCS AND
IN THE WAKE OF ANVIL CANOPY OVER ERN/CENTRAL IL. SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF CLEARING COMBINED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE
TO UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET CORE POSITIONED
OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL FAVOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION
INTO CENTRAL IL...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG.
THUS...QLCS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS
IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
GIVEN ENLARGED
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN LINCOLN VWP.

..GARNER.. 04/24/2010
1140. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:


Could this be the hottest water ever recorded for the Tropical Atlantic? (And no, this is not Globally) The whole Pacific looks fairly cold, while the Southern Indian Ocean is normal, and the Northern Atlantic is colder than normal. Global Heat content will collapse of 2011, what Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel is currently denying. He'll see... although it will probably be very warm during this summer, but get globally much colder during the winter months.


We have had the highest SST anomalies ever recorded in the Atlantic MDR for both February and March, and likely this month as well.
1141. Drakoen
The Glosea forecast for anomalously higher heights over Canada for the June-July-August period similar to how it was in 2005.

2010:


Figure 1. Glosea Ensemble forecast of the 500hpa height anomalies for the June-July-August period


2005:


Figure 2. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis of the 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Anomalies in meters for the June through August period in 2005


1142. Drakoen
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Drak,

Is there anyway to compare the levels and variance of the eddies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean basin?


Yes. You can go here and click on Surface Currents over SSH to see the loop currents and their heights.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Drak,

Is there anyway to compare the levels and variance of the eddies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean basin?


*From 2005 at this time to present location of eddies.
so basically this season looks to be another version of a hyper season much like we saw in 05 or worse? Any idea of what CSU is saying in the way of landfall ideas of the systems?
1145. Drakoen
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


*From 2005 at this time to present location of eddies.


Go that that same link I gave you in post 1142 and click on snapshot archive and you will have access to the graphics from 2005.
How does the subsurface waters in the Pacific look today?
1147. Drakoen
2005:



2010:

1148. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
How does the subsurface waters in the Pacific look today?


Whats the prediction on severe weather for the South between tomorrow and Tuesday from this front?
1150. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
so basically this season looks to be another version of a hyper season much like we saw in 05 or worse? Any idea of what CSU is saying in the way of landfall ideas of the systems?


From their April Forecast

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1)
Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
1) 58% (average for last century is 42%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I don't know about beating 2005....there were a lot of middle-of-nowhere systems that year that contributed to the number, but in terms of total impact on the United States and Caribbean countries, I would say this year could easily rival 2005 and 2004 if the steering patterns set up the way some models are showing right now.
I wonder how this season will react to the positive QBO.
active year. grey dude does not live in colorado for nothing
1153. Levi32
Quoting BenBIogger:
I wonder how this season will react to the QBO.


There has been no significant correlation between hurricane activity and the QBO since 1995 when the warm AMO began. 2005 had an easterly QBO, which is supposed to have a negative impact on hurricane activity. It very well may have played a role in why 2005 had a nearly non-existent Cape Verde season, but I don't consider it at this time to be a significant factor in determining this season's activity.
1154. Drakoen
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Whats the prediction on severe weather for the South between tomorrow and Tuesday from this front?


Numerous tornadoes on the ground in W and NW AL right now.
Quoting Drakoen:




Yellows are shrinking and more blues expanding.Thanks for posting the graphic.
Tuscalousa, AL take cover as a tornado is getting ready to move into the north side of the town. Also, 11 confirmed fatalities in Miss.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Numerous tornadoes on the ground in W and NW AL right now.

ABC 33/40 out of Alabama has just reported 6 confirmed fatalities in Yazoo and Choctaw Cos in MS.
TWC - 11 confirmed deaths in Mississippi thus far.
1160. hydrus
Quoting leftovers:
active year. grey dude does not live in colorado for nothing
lol, no cat-5,s in Colorado?
Reports of a possible tornado coming into Nashville, TN.
Quoting Bordonaro:

You may have 2-4" of rain tomorrow in the NE. The biggest risk tomorrow will be large hail and strong winds.


I don't think New England will get much at all, the severe threat should mainly be Florida to the Carolinas possibly Maryland and Virginia, MCS systems down south often cutoff moisture further north in these type of setups
Quoting Jedkins01:


I don't think New England will get much at all, the severe threat should mainly be Florida to the Carolinas possibly Maryland and Virginia, MCS systems down south often cutoff moisture further north in these type of setups


A secondary increase in severe wx will be in C FL late on Sunday and Sunday night.
Amazing but terrible day. I saw the tornado in Oktibbeha Co. MS. By the time it reached this area it had done most of its damage already.

Here is a website for updates on the situation in MS for anyone without TV right now. It is the major newspaper out of Jackson. Definitely EF-3 damage, likely higher. :(
1165. Levi32
Compared to a month ago, SST anomalies in the south Atlantic from the equator to 25S between 40W and 10E have cooled overall, with warm anomalies retreating and giving way to more cold anomalies. Contrasting this, the north Atlantic between 0N and 25N has only become hotter, and this temperature gradient, if it continues into the season, will be very favorable for hurricane activity in the eastern MDR. There are some models that oppose this, such as the Japanese FRCGC Global model, which keep the south Atlantic just as warm as the north Atlantic through the summer.

March 22nd SST Anomalies:



April 22nd SST Anomalies:

Tornado hit Parsons, TN west of Nashville.
2 injuries from the tornado in Parsons,TN via TWC.
The strongest known rating for a tornado in this outbreak since April 22 has been an EF2. If the tornado in Yazoo City is confirmed to be EF5, it will be the strongest so far in the outbreak.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The strongest known rating for a tornado in this outbreak since April 22 has been an EF2. If the tornado in Yazoo City is confirmed to be EF5, it will be the strongest so far in the outbreak.


That tornado was a EF-3 by looking at the damage.
1172. aquak9
NASTY-lookin' line, up by Nashville and further north.

anyone heard from Oz?
The one that hit Parsons, TN appears to a EF-3 as well. A very large tornado from this storm shown on TWC.
nader in yaz was a EF3 3/4 mile wide wedge tornado
Quoting Jeff9641:
Reports of a possible tornado coming into Nashville, TN.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
548 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF
CENTERVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINDEN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CENTERVILLE BY 610 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Quoting aquak9:
NASTY-lookin' line, up by Nashville and further north.

anyone heard from Oz?


He called me about 30 minutes ago, and he is on his way back home, after coming within 1-2 miles of the tornado that hit Yazoo, he called it a trip.
1177. Levi32
That line of storms near Kentucky could head into S. Ontario overnight. What do y'all think about this?
looks like there maybe 3 EF 3's in the intense line
1181. aquak9
t'dude- thank you.
Quoting aquak9:
t'dude- thank you.


anytime (:
Houses damaged or destoryed in Parson, TN and numerous trees & powerlines down as well.
Quoting tornadodude:


He called me about 30 minutes ago, and he is on his way back home, after coming within 1-2 miles of the tornado that hit Yazoo, he called it a trip.
yep an EF3 will do that too ya
1185. Levi32
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
That line of storms near Kentucky could head into S. Ontario overnight. What do y'all think about this?


Ontario? Um no.
this is PDS take cover now
in danger area
Looks like the Tornado threat is beginning to diminish somewhat over the Mid_South and SE.

Although there are several Tornado Warnings out, the risk for long-track tornadoes is diminishing.

My prayers to all those affected, it was a bad situation in 15 counties in MS.
1189. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nader in yaz was a EF3 3/4 mile wide wedge tornado
Thats a pretty big nader.
Quoting Levi32:
Looks impressive in a weird sort of way.
1191. beell
I think it's pretty cool that some of you can determine the damage from a tornado based on radar. Enhanced Fujita (EF) is a damage scale. You have to assess the damage from the ground. Check out rcarver's blog
1192. Patrap
Quoting beell:
I think it's pretty cool that some of you can determine the damage from a tornado based on radar. Enhanced Fujita (EF) is a damage scale. You have to assess the damage from the ground. Check out rcarver's blog


Oh yeah - well I flip a coin five times to determine EF-scale. Each time I get heads, the rating goes up one. For Yazoo, I got heads 3 times. So there. :)
Quoting hydrus:
Thats a pretty big nader.
you can see it in the twisted damage trees snap but twisted observation reports at time of storm
and extend and distance of local damage reports from one another
Im surprised nobody is even mentioning the Illinois tornado warned storms.
and how am i seeing ground reports

well from the

World Wide Web

Quoting MrstormX:
Im surprised nobody is even mentioning the Illinois tornado warned storms.
iam watchin




always watchin
Quoting MrstormX:
Im surprised nobody is even mentioning the Illinois tornado warned storms.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
554 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARLINVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT
MOVED THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...AUBURN...DIVERNON...PAWNEE...CHATHAM...KINCAID...
EDINBURG...ROCHESTER...RIVERTON...MECHANICSBURG...MOUNT AUBURN...
SHERMAN...THAYER...GLENARM...SICILY...TOVEY...SANGCHRIS LAKE STATE
PARK...SHARPSBURG...JEROME AND SOUTHERN VIEW.

THOSE ATTENDING THE LINCOLN PILGRIMMAGE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 105.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
waning out now
MS/AL getting hammered:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and how am i seeing ground reports

well from the

World Wide Web



KOG,
Are these damage assessments done by NWS? If so, where are you seeing them?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BREMEN...OR
ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
GOOD HOPE.
PHELAN.
WALTER.
HOLLY POND.
BAILEYTON.
JOPPA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO NEAR 80
MPH...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE TORNADO AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF PAWNEE...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VIRDEN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCHESTER...RIVERTON...MECHANICSBURG...SANGCHRIS LAKE STATE PARK...
BERRY...ROBY...CLEAR LAKE...SPAULDING...DAWSON AND BUFFALO.

THOSE ATTENDING THE LINCOLN PILGRIMMAGE ARE IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
1205. Drakoen
SOI is now up to 13.8:

Link
1206. OGal
My son is in Louisville. Been watching the storms to the south including one tornado that looks to moving to the south of Lexington. Scary time for all.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


KOG,
Are these damage assessments done by NWS? If so, where are you seeing them?
my own assessment BFTR i use a combination of IR. Sat. presentation at time of event combined with radar reflection local hrly storm reports and local downloaded media of damage on the ground

the age of computers is a wonderful thing
got your h1n1 shot? see what happens when you listen to the officials. your a lab rat http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/23/AR2010042304965.html
Repost.

1212. BDAwx
Today is now the most active day in terms of severe weather reports (194 reports) according to the SPC, and counting. the previous most active day had 192 reports.
Quoting leftovers:
got your h1n1 shot? see what happens when you listen to the officials. your a lab rat http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/23/AR2010042304965.html
i never did get one of those
Western Gulf still warming.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my own assessment BFTR i use a combination of IR. Sat. presentation at time of event combined with radar reflection local hrly storm reports and local downloaded media of damage on the ground

the age of computers is a wonderful thing


Thanks!


you can see entire system nicly here
Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
722 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALC043-095-103-250045-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100425T0045Z/
MORGAN AL-CULLMAN AL-MARSHALL AL-
722 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRVIEW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BAILEYTON...HULACO...RYAN CROSSROADS...ARAB...JOPPA...EDDY AND UNION
GROVE.

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED DAMAGE FROM THIS STORM IN
EASTERN CULLMAN COUNTY...ALONG COUNTY ROAD 601 BETWEEN HANCEVILLE
AND PHELAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM! TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8683 3449 8652 3447 8647 3449 8642
3437 8629 3426 8645 3426 8651 3423 8652
3421 8655 3419 8654 3410 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 227DEG 32KT 3424 8664
We're under a tornado watch. The first of the year.
1219. Patrap
Mesoscale Discussion 383

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...

VALID 250019Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A DRY LINE/WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING EWD
THROUGH WRN TN...NERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA.

AT 2345Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN FAR NWRN AL...AND EAST CENTRAL TO SRN MS. THESE NEWLY
FORMED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPSTREAM SPEED
MAX/IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD ACROSS E TX. LOW LEVEL WINDS PER
LOWER MS VALLEY VWP DATA ARE BACKING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE E TX IMPULSE AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS ERN-SRN MS WHERE THE NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

EFFECTIVE SRH 300-600 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND TORNADO THREAT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MIDLEVEL COOLING SPREADING EWD ATOP THE EXISTING RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION FROM W-E THIS EVENING
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE.
THIS MIDLEVEL COOLING WAS EVIDENT IN THE COMPARISON OF THE 18Z TO
00Z JAN SOUNDINGS. 00Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DEEPENED SOME...WHILE COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER HAS
REDUCED SBCINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS.
ALTHOUGH FAR SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WILL BE GENERALLY GLANCED
BY MIDLEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY NOT DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND SUPPORT EITHER EXTENDING THE EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 95
OR ISSUING A NEW WATCH.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2010


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29828824 30588846 30678936 31788892 32178746 31838516
30688485 30298440 29198464 29618594 29828824



1220. beell
It's on you, Pat.
First counts!
Scary weather day today. Damn. :( My heart goes out to all those touched by these storms. I know without a doubt that their lives have been changed forever in the proverbial blink of an eye. I hope they find what they need to get them through. I read an inspirational story today that I hope makes its way to the affected communities. (It's about the NFL draft if you're not familiar with it.)

Falcons' Weatherspoon toughened by Rita

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
April 24, 2010
Posted: April 24, 2010, 1:18 PM CDT

Sean Weatherspoon walked up to the podium at the Atlanta Falcons complex on Friday wearing a dark suit with a red tie, matching red pocket square and white Falcons cap.

"Looking good," said Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff as he nodded in approval to his first-round draft pick.

"Feeling good," Weatherspoon replied with a smile.

It was an upbeat introduction for Weatherspoon in his first full day with the Falcons, and he said his positive spirit was strengthened by surviving a dramatic challenge when Hurricane Rita devastated his hometown of Jasper, Texas in September, 2005.

The small Texas town was without water and electricity for three to four weeks, and Weatherspoon's high school senior football season was placed on hold for about five weeks.

The storm hit Texas after Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans.

Weatherspoon, introduced at the Falcons complex on Friday, says the adversity made him stronger.

"I was being recruited by LSU," Weatherspoon said. "That was one of the places that I wanted to go, but I lost contact with them. That was pretty devastating for me, and I was pretty nervous, not knowing what would be on the table."

Weatherspoon's mother, Elwanda, said her family was displaced by the storm.

"We didn't really have to rebuild, but we had renovations," she said. "Every family in Jasper was affected by Hurricane Rita."

Added Sean Weatherspoon: "It was tough. We were without electricity for about four to five weeks. Everybody had to buy generators. It was tough being displaced, not having my bed and my bathroom, but we made it through.

"Tough times don't last. Tough people do. I think that definitely made me stronger."
Link
1222. Patrap
Current Conditions

Mid City Station, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Haze
77.2 °F
Haze
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.66 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 25 ft
1225. Patrap
183
fxus64 klix 242100
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
400 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2010


Update...
officials in Plaquemines Parish have reported coastal flooding
concerns in the Jesuit Bend area. A coastal Flood Warning has been
issued and will remain in effect until midnight CDT tonight.
Please refer to the latest coastal Flood Warning product and the
hazardous weather outlook for additional details.


&&
1226. Patrap
Lower Plaquemines
Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather

Coastal Flood Warning

Statement as of 7:05 PM CDT on April 24, 2010

... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until midnight CDT
tonight...

Plaquemines Parish officials continue to monitor high water
against a stretch of levees near Jesuit Bend. The water level is
within an inch or two of overtopping but the tide has flattened
late this afternoon. The strong southwest winds have diminished
somewhat but will keep water levels close to the levee elevations
until a cold front moves through the affected area later this
evening. The cold front is expected to provide a wind shift in
central Plaquemines Parish around 1030 PM with water levels
receding steadily around midnight.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.



24/rr
1227. Patrap
Thats one big ol Low parked in the Upper Midwest eh beell.
Very impressive imagery over the eastern United States.

No lie, that looks like a subtropical storm trying to form dead center of this image. It's too cold water, and too much southerly shear, though. But it's completely cutoff from any jet, and has a well defined surface low.

WV loop
Quoting Levi32:


It is very possible that sometime in 6-10 days some tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific could be pulled northward into the western Caribbean by a strong low to mid-level south to southwesterly flow over the western Carib and GOM that will develop during that time.


Speaking of southerly flow, that's what has me nervous about the upcoming tropical season here in the NW GOM. It seems every time a front comes through a ridge builds quickly after it giving us the southerly flow. That seems to be the worst set up for anybody in the north GOM. During hurricane season every time that ridge goes to the east of you it leaves you open to landfall should a storm be brewing. Last year was the complete opposite here anyway. We had the ridge of doom parked right on top of us giving us offshore flow.

As for the Pacific energy being pulled north, it has happened at least once and that was a bad one. Glad it's April not September. Yikes!

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN (13U)
9:00 AM WST April 25 2010
======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Sean, Category 1 (996 hPa) located at 17.5S 111.3E or 570 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
45 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.7S 110.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.8S 107.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 17.9S 100.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 16.8S 95.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================
Tropical Cyclone Sean has weakened considerably overnight due to moderate to
strong NW shear. Latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis at 00 UTC indicates NW shear between 25 and 30 knots.

The centre was relocated using the 2330 UTC visible image and microwave imagery overnight. The visible image showed a fully exposed LLCC with no deep convection nearby.

Dvorak: Shear pattern gives DT of 1.0 to 1.5. MET is 2.5 based on W+ trend and PAT is 2.0. FT constrained to 2.5 and CI held at 3.0.

The system is likely to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity by 0600 UTC with the low level centre expected to move in a general westerly direction.
no, we are not alone
check out the Hubble pics released Wed.
Link
awesome!
Up to 49 Tornado Reports through the SPC. HIGH risk area dropped and replaced with MDT risk.

Thankfully, this Severe Weather outbreak is winding down.
this is the first another time in a few days again
1242. Levi32
Quoting winter123:
No lie, that looks like a subtropical storm trying to form dead center of this image. It's too cold water, and too much southerly shear, though. But it's completely cutoff from any jet, and has a well defined surface low.

WV loop


Again, not subtropical at all. It's a mature extratropical low that has gone into warm-seclusion. You can see on the 850mb temperature chart that there is a well-defined baroclinic zone still associated with the system, and there is a bubble of warm air trapped at the center, the classic sign of seclusion, and that is why the phase diagram below shows it as shallowly warm-core. But, notice how massive the wind field has become over the last couple days....this is not what you want to see when trying to develop tropical characteristics, and most of the wind maxima are well-removed from the center, out by the frontal zones where they should be in an extratropical cyclone.

Remember that strong extratropical cyclones, especially ones in the winter, commonly register as "subtropical" on the cyclone phase diagram charts....but they obviously aren't. Just because they are shallowly warm-core doesn't make them tropical in nature. The reason this storm looked so cool was because it was following the Gulf Stream, which really enhanced cloud tops in a ring around the north side of the low center.

18z GFS 850mb initialization:

">

Phase diagram:

Quoting Chicklit:
no, we are not alone
check out the Hubble pics released Wed.
Link
awesome!


Wow! Great pics thanks Chicklit.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Wow! Great pics thanks Chicklit.
yeah they are nice thanks chicklit
1248. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Is this entire system stalling? If it is would it mean similar conditions for tomorrow? Everything seems to be slowin up.
Quoting hydrus:
Is this entire system stalling? If it is would it mean similar conditions for tomorrow? Everything seems to be slowin up.

The Upper Level Low and the surface Low are moving slowly eastward. Thank God this is beginning to wind down for today!!
1250. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

The Upper Level Low and the surface Low are moving slowly eastward. Thank God this is beginning to wind down for today!!
Someone said they are going to stack vertically. That could be interesting.
Quoting hydrus:
Someone said they are going to stack vertically. That could be interesting.

Is there any links to that info?
1252. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

Is there any links to that info?
Gimme a minute.
Quoting hydrus:
Gimme a minute.

K
1255. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

Is there any links to that info?
Read the day-1 convective outlook at the S.P.C. sight.
Quoting hydrus:
Read the day-1 convective outlook at the S.P.C. sight.

Thanks!
Quoting hydrus:
Read the day-1 convective outlook at the S.P.C. sight.

Link to LiveStream 33/40 below, live coverage of AL tornadoes:
Link
Has anyone hear from Cyclone Oz tonight? I know he got real close to the Yazoo City, MS tornado and he headed back home after that.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Has anyone hear from Cyclone Oz tonight? I know he got real close to the Yahoo City, MS tornado and he headed back home after that.


That would be Yazoo.
Another tornado on the ground in Northern
AL reported by EMS right now.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


That would be Yazoo.

It was an honest mistake, sorry.
Quoting hydrus:
Is this entire system stalling? If it is would it mean similar conditions for tomorrow? Everything seems to be slowin up.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO
THE E REACHING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 23N92W THIS
EVENING WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DEGENERATES WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.

I hope this means some of the severe weather will ease up.
Link
1264. Patrap


A portlight volunteer and a NOLA reporter are heading up to the Impacted Area in the morning to see what we can do as far as relief for the affected.

A Quick assessment and personal contacts to establish what Durable Medical Equipment (DME) may be needed for the affected areas...is the Primary Mission.

Many thanks to "kitchengypsy" for her quick action as per usual with the Logistics for this to be possible.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those in Miss,and the other areas today.



Tornado Warning
Statement as of 9:39 PM CDT on April 24, 2010


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Blount County...


At 935 PM CDT... National Weather Service continued to detect a
tornado. This tornado was located near Chamblees Mill... or 6 miles
west of Blountsville... moving east at 40 mph
.

The tornado will be near...
Blountsville by 945 PM CDT...
6 miles north of Rosa by 950 PM CDT...
Susan Moore... Hendrix and Brooksville by 955 PM CDT...
Snead by 1000 PM CDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 am CDT Sunday morning for
Alabama.


To report severe weather... call 1-800-856-0758.

Lat... Lon 3425 8644 3399 8634 3402 8670 3408 8669
3409 8670 3410 8666 3413 8663 3413 8661
3421 8656
time... Mot... loc 0239z 260deg 35kt 3408 8663


Jd/02
Both the storm currently centered over Indiana and the one in the mid-Atlantic look like they have an "eye".
How many of these tornados have been confirmed. I've seen the reports up in the 40's but nothing on confirmed. Where could I get that information from?
The center of the Indiana storm is looping counter-clockwise westwards back into northeastern Missouri. Link
49 tornadoes so far today.
Quoting Jeff9641:
49 tornadoes so far today.


49 reports - this will most likely translate into 15-20 confirmed once the local NWS branches have a chance to investigate
Is it possibe for jacksonville,florida to get serve weather tomorrow?
1273. Patrap
AssociatedPress — April 24, 2010 — Aerial video of Yazoo City, Mississippi, shows a path of debris and destruction left by a tornado that reportedly killed two people and injured more than a dozen. (April 24)

Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Is it possibe for jacksonville,florida to get serve weather tomorrow?

Yes
1275. Patrap
Tornado strikes Mississippi; 9 dead

YAZOO CITY, Miss., April 24 (UPI) -- At least nine people are reported dead and an unknown number of others trapped inside structures after a tornado ripped through Mississippi, officials said.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency in 17 counties including the three where fatalities were recorded: Yazoo, Choctaw and Holmes counties, USA Today reported.

The tornado -- said to be from a half mile to as much as a mile wide -- whipped through cities from the central part of the state's western border with Louisiana and rushed to the northeast toward Alabama, National Weather Service officials in Jackson, Miss., said Saturday.

Forecaster Mark McAllister told CNN the twister touched down in Yazoo City, Valley Park and Durant, and was threatening Starkville.

Yazoo City Fire Chief Roy Wilson told CNN as many as 30 houses were destroyed and people were trapped inside some of them.

"We still have people trapped in houses and cars," Barbour said at a news conference at Ribeye Steakhouse off U.S. 49. "It reminds me of (Hurricane) Katrina," he said.

Forecasters said a "significant and dangerous outbreak of severe storms" was expected in eastern Mississippi "until sunset" Saturday, with a "high risk of tornadoes," possibly featuring "golf ball and baseball sized hail" and wind gusts exceeding 75 mph.
1276. Patrap

Station Notice:

Message Date: Apr 24 2010 19:43:41 SWITCHING KLIX TO VCP 21 TO SAVE ON WEAR AND TEAR. IF MORE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE WE WILL SWITCH BACK PROMPTLY TO VCP 212. RR


so there is a slight chance.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes


I wonder why only Colorado is circled it just looks weird.
Tornado reported on the ground in cordova alabama. major damage in parrish alabama according to abc 33/40
Quoting skepticall2:


I wonder why only Colorado is circled it just looks weird.


Cold pool will be moving over Colorado at the time of max daytime heating - Cold air over warm air is very unstable.
1281. beell
Quoting Chucktown:


49 reports - this will most likely translate into 15-20 confirmed once the local NWS branches have a chance to investigate


Evening, Chucktown,
Probably a few more hiding in the wind reports.
1282. Patrap
Chucktown...I missed your broadcast...What's in store for us?
Quoting Patrap:
Tornado strikes Mississippi; 9 dead

YAZOO CITY, Miss., April 24 (UPI) -- At least nine people are reported dead and an unknown number of others trapped inside structures after a tornado ripped through Mississippi, officials said.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency in 17 counties including the three where fatalities were recorded: Yazoo, Choctaw and Holmes counties, USA Today reported.

The tornado -- said to be from a half mile to as much as a mile wide -- whipped through cities from the central part of the state's western border with Louisiana and rushed to the northeast toward Alabama, National Weather Service officials in Jackson, Miss., said Saturday.

Forecaster Mark McAllister told CNN the twister touched down in Yazoo City, Valley Park and Durant, and was threatening Starkville.

Yazoo City Fire Chief Roy Wilson told CNN as many as 30 houses were destroyed and people were trapped inside some of them.

"We still have people trapped in houses and cars," Barbour said at a news conference at Ribeye Steakhouse off U.S. 49. "It reminds me of (Hurricane) Katrina," he said.

Forecasters said a "significant and dangerous outbreak of severe storms" was expected in eastern Mississippi "until sunset" Saturday, with a "high risk of tornadoes," possibly featuring "golf ball and baseball sized hail" and wind gusts exceeding 75 mph.

Damn damn damn, we all like watching mother nature at her most nastiest but when she turns deadly no one is happy.
Quoting beell:


Evening, Chucktown,
Probably a few more hiding in the wind reports.


Agreed, but that one that went through Yazoo City and all the other towns probably produced 10-15 reports, but will only be counted as one long track tornado.
With the chance of serve weather tomorrow.Could jacksonville,florida have isolated tornadoes?
Tornado on the ground doing damage in albertville alabama
Quoting presslord:
Chucktown...I missed your broadcast...What's in store for us?


Evening Press. Dynamics will be much weaker across our area tomorrow as compared to what happened across the deep south today. We may get some surface instability going if we can pop some morning sun as dewpoints push towards 70. Still can't rule out an isolated tornado, but straight line winds and maybe some hail looks to be the greatest threat across coastal SC tomorrow.
Quoting Chucktown:


Agreed, but that one that went through Yazoo City and all the other towns probably produced 10-15 reports, but will only be counted as one long track tornado.


No because this tornado didn't stay on the ground the whole time eyewitnesses reported the tornado going up and going back down many times as it pushed past Yazoo.
Quoting Chucktown:


Cold pool will be moving over Colorado at the time of max daytime heating - Cold air over warm air is very unstable.


I just meant that it looks funny nothing outside of Colorado just Colorado I know why it happens but maybe somebody else didn't thanks for telling them.
Quoting Chucktown:


Evening Press. Dynamics will be much weaker across our area tomorrow as compared to what happened across the deep south today. We may get some surface instability going if we can pop some morning sun as dewpoints push towards 70. Still can't rule out an isolated tornado, but straight line winds and maybe some hail looks to be the greatest threat across coastal SC tomorrow.


Same here for Orlando.
1292. beell
Agreed, but that one that went through Yazoo City and all the other towns probably produced 10-15 reports, but will only be counted as one long track tornado


Would also agree, Ct.

Counting hurricanes is a little easier. Although there is usually some heated discussion around here during and after the season!

The activity over the panhandles on Thursday is a great example of the problem with calculating tornado climatology by storm reports. Maybe 5 cells accounting for 40 reports.
Quoting Jeff9641:


No because this tornado didn't stay on the ground the whole time eyewitnesses reported the tornado going up and going back down many times as it pushed past Yazoo.


NWS doesn't use eyewitness accounts when investigating a tornado touchdown - it goes strictly by the damage and path created on the ground.
Eumetsat of the extratropical storm in the NW Atlantic.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Tornado on the ground doing damage in albertville alabama
looking at the ABC 33/40coverage and James Spann mentioned seeing debris field on radar in Albertville looks to be a strong tornado
Quoting beell:
Agreed, but that one that went through Yazoo City and all the other towns probably produced 10-15 reports, but will only be counted as one long track tornado


Would also agree, Ct.

Counting hurricanes is a little easier. Although there is usually some heated discussion around here during and after the season!

The activity over the panhandles on Thursday is a great example of the problem with calculating tornado climatology by storm reports. Maybe 5 cells accounting for 40 reports.
1297. xcool
AL NOT GOOD
Quoting Skyepony:
Eumetsat of the extratropical storm in the NW Atlantic.

both those lows have good shape and structure.
Unfortunately spann just said that major damage has occured in albertville alabama
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Unfortunately spann just said that major damage has occured in albertville alabama


This tornado event is about to get bad again as supercells are redeveloping over AL.
Removed
Quoting Jeff9641:


This tornado event is about to get bad again as supercells are redeveloping over AL.

Where is CycloneOz?
Alright, out for the night - busy day expected here in the SC Lowcountry - the Stormcenter will be ahoppin'
There is a large and extremly dangerous tornado on the ground headed for chigger hill this is unreal i hope those people have noaa radios
1309. xcool
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTERN GEORGIA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM UNTIL 600 AM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF MACON GEORGIA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG SSW-NNE LOW LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL. THIS MAY REFLECT INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ZONE IN RESPONSE TO EWD SPREAD OF PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE OH VLY WITH DEEPENING UPR TROUGH /REF MCD 385/. STRENGTH OF LOW LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY UPDRAFTS ABLE TO BECOME SUSTAINED AND ASSUME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...CORFIDI
Some of the bigger tornadoes are occuring now. Very large tornadoes heading toward GA right now.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Where is CycloneOz?


He is driving back home after he almost got hit by the yazoo tornado. I think he was a mile away from it.
This ain't good.
Link
Guys I wish we could keep people informed better. As I'm sure were the only ones on this blog now. This is shaping up to be a deadly night.
will this settle down some overnight, or are we looking at this most of the night? not loking good now in SW Georgia.
Albertsville and Geraldine, AL has been hit very hard, downed powelines, severe damage, a the cell, no confirmed tornado, is approaching Lookout Mtn and FT Payne, AL.

NOT a good situation!!!!
Oh no fort payne getting hit by a large and extremly dangerous tornado god be with them
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
will this settle down some overnight, or are we looking at this most of the night? not loking good now in SW Georgia.

Doesn't appear so!
News is showing atleast 10 dead in MS from tornadoes. The search for the 10 missing from the oil rig that exploded has been called off. It has sunk & there is oil leaking into the gulf.
what is with the sound effects on the blog?
Quoting Jeff9641:


He is driving back home after he almost got hit by the yazoo tornado. I think he was a mile away from it.

That ain't good, I hope he's alright
WAAY-TV Huntsville, AL Live Feed link:
Link
Quoting Chicklit:
what is with the sound effects on the blog?


See post 1301...just click the "pause button" to stop the feed...

v/r

Jon
I've watched tornadoes since I was a young child in northeast Kansas, and have lived here in NE FL since 1966. I cant' recall so tenacious an outbreak with so many tornadoes hitting over such a vast array of states, more to come.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Albertsville and Geraldine, AL has been hit very hard, downed powelines, severe damage, a the cell, no confirmed tornado, is approaching Lookout Mtn and FT Payne, AL.

NOT a good situation!!!!


Law enforcement saw the tornado coming into Geraldine, AL.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Doesn't appear so!

The Huntsville tornado is growing larger.
Quoting Chicklit:
what is with the sound effects on the blog?

I have removed the live channel
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Huntsville tornado is growing larger.

Tornado is being reported as 3/4 of a mile wide by TWC.
Link to Live Stream 33/40 is live again:
Link
NE AL is getting HAMMERED with a handful of Tornado Warnings out, several Severe T-Storms Warnings in AL.

NW GA also has a Tornado Warning in effect, what a mess!
1333. aquak9
listening to live feed, poor weekend overnite met...
We should begin to start getting tornadoes in C GA and into South Carolina over the next several hours. Macon to Columbia need to be on gaurd because you are next.
Supercells organizing west of Macon right now and this batch will have the potential to produce tornadoes.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Supercells organizing west of Macon right now and this batch will have the potential to produce tornadoes.

Agreed, this is a real NASTY outbreak!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Agreed, this is a real NASTY outbreak!!!


I haven't seen anything like this in a long time. The NWS in Melbourne is saying that storms are expected to intensify as they approach c FL tomorrow evening. It is very tropical here right now.
1338. xcool
bad stuff
Quoting Jeff9641:


I haven't seen anything like this in a long time. The NWS in Melbourne is saying that storms are expected to intensify as they approach c FL tomorrow evening. It is very tropical here right now.

Huntsville tornado has dissipated
If i were in atlanta i would have my weather radio on as these storms are just ferocious tonight and a tornado watch is being cordinated to include atlanta
Quoting Jeff9641:


I haven't seen anything like this in a long time. The NWS in Melbourne is saying that storms are expected to intensify as they approach c FL tomorrow evening. It is very tropical here right now.

Be interesting to see what the SPC update for today, SU 4-25-10 will be in about an hour!
Storms intensifying NW of Tallahassee also looks as if a hook echo is developing with that storm.
1343. skook
http://www.whnt.com/

live feed of possible tornado in colinsville AL.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Huntsville tornado has dissipated


Good!!
A tornado maybe trying to form NW of Tallahasse and is about to move into SW GA. Looks as if the FL Panhandle is about to get into the act as well/
Quoting Jeff9641:
Storms intensifying NW of Tallahassee also looks as if a hook echo is developing with that storm.

Collinsville take cover immedeatly! possible tornado heading there way
Alright guys I'm going to bed as I have got to get some sleep. You guys keep up the good work! I swear were better at this then METS. TWC just had Storm Stories on from 12 to 1am with tornadoes all over AL. That is terrible, so much for forecasting and alerting people of danger coming there way.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Collinsville take cover immedeatly! possible tornado heading there way

It's pasted collinsville
Quoting Jeff9641:
Alright guys I'm going to bed as I have got to get some sleep. You guys keep up the good work! I swear were better at this then METS. TWC just had Storm Stories on from 12 to 1am with tornadoes all over AL. That is terrible, so much for forecasting and alerting people of danger coming there way.

That's disgusting, they should be doing there jobs, not putting on programs.
Not good if that thing didnt produce a large tornado in collinsville then that is a miracle
Somber news out of geraldine as the ema has requested all available fire departmaents and police to assist in rescue efforts in the area
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Not good if that thing didnt produce a large tornado in collinsville then that is a miracle

Collinsville has unconfirmed reports of damage.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Collinsville has unconfirmed reports of damage.

massive lightening storm at Gadsden.
Yep hopefully it wasnt severe but the velocity scans showed amazing rotation
just read that it was prom night in Geraldine..

Hey allybama how are you doing!
Hi Alex, I am pretty good - just sleepy but now worried about the situation in Geraldine, AL..I read that the tornado hit near the school where the prom was being held..I am still searching for updated info..
I heard reports that the high school was destroyed but hopefully the prom wasnt there did it say where it was being held?
I am not sure if the prom was being held at the school or not; however, in many of the rural areas, there is no where else to go unless there is a community center in town or a hotel with banquet facilities..
Man hopefully no one was at the school
I did find this info..

that the Geraldine-area historical tornado activity is above the AL state average and is 234% greater than the overall U.S. average..
I sure wouldn't want to live in that area!..well, hopefully these stories are not true about the prom, etc., and we probably won't know anything until daylight..

Yeah your right but now there is a tornadic storm heading towards sevierville,pigeon forge,and gatlinburg tennesse area
Hello all! I haven't been on for a while, since the '09 season. High School going great still!

All signs atm indicate this season will be one for the books. TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) In the Caribbean is higher than that of the legendary 2005 season was at this time. SST's (Sea surface temperatures) are way higher than this time last year, and higher than 2005 again even. El Nino is dying, and the SOI is continuing to skyrocket, now up to 13.8 ish last I checked. NAO continues to be negative, shear continues to be well below climatological average. Colorado and Dr. Gray say that this season will feature atleast 15 named. TSR says 16, with a 77% chance of an above average season.

When looking at conditions one tends to look for something called analog seasons, or seasons that have similar conditions that are present. The Top 3 is 1969, 1998, and 2005. Each of those seasons were extraordinarily destructive, Camille in 1969 hit as a Category 5 in the US, Mitch in 1998 was the 2nd most deadly Hurricane in the Atlantic, also a Category 5 landfall. And of course, 2005 with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma. I personally believe that this season will feature

- 17 named Storms.
- 8 Hurricanes.
- 5 Major Hurricanes.

I also want to extend my condolences to any victims of the Yazoo Tornado today, judging by some of the damage reports it was at least an EF-3 tornado. My thoughts and prayers are out there tonight! The tornado outbreak looks to be continuing, my neck of the woods here in FL looks to get some rain out of it tomorrow!
Wow hey hurricanekyle! nice to meet you
uh-oh..I sure hope that the storm dissipates soon!..with it being so late, many people will be caught off guard - especially the tourists. I am not sure if there are emergency sirens around town but not everyone would be in range to hear them.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Wow hey hurricanekyle! nice to meet you


Nice to meet you too!
Well it looks like this outbreak is winding down now thank goodness it has been a busy and sad day for the people of mississippi and alabama as many communities have been hit and unfortunately deaths have occured so far i heard 10 in mississippi and we dont know in alabama yet but hopefully these guys can get a break from severe weather and clean up but there is another round of severe weather coming into the plains on thursday so hopes it goes north.
Are you a senior in high school?
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Are you a senior in high school?


Sophomore, going on Junior.
Man i just graduated august of last year just do your work dont get in any trouble and you will be fine junior and senior years are the easiest you get by this year congrats graduate! LOL!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER SEAN (13U)
3:00 PM WST April 25 2010
======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Sean (1000 hPa) located at 18.1S 110.5E or 570 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 108.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 18.5S 105.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.5S 098.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.0S 094.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Ex Tropical Cyclone Sean has weakened below cyclone intensity under strong NW shear. Latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis at 06 UTC indicates NW shear between 25 and 30 knots. The low level circulation centre is fully exposed on visible imagery with minimal convection nearby.

Dvorak: Shear pattern gives DT of 1.0 to 1.5. MET is 2.0 based on W+ trend and PAT is 2.0. FT is now 2.0 with CI of 2.5.

The low level circulation centre is expected to track generally westwards under the influence of low level easterly winds.
blustery right now 10-15 but there are periods where it is really gusty 24mph perfect temperatur e cent florida
Morning everyone! Up early.
.
Hey Cybr! How's it going?
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Hey Cybr! How's it going?


Hey, I wondered where you went! I agree with your forecast too, but I'm more on the bar with 16/7/4. Guess we'll have to see wont we?
1380. P451
Bad 24 hours.




10 dead but expected to rise. The one tornado went for 150 miles and was a mile wide or more at times.

SPC and NWS were on top of this from the get go but there are some things you can't prevent.

1381. aquak9
Morning, WU-Bloggers.

I hope our severe season is OVER now. That, was enough.

Link
1382. P451
Rapid development this morning.

12 hour WV loop.



Good Morning Everyone,

So sad to follow events from yesterday/lastnight and into the early morning hours this morning. Of course, prayers and thoughts go out to the victims of the storms.

We had some strong storms come through Panama City about 3:00am or so this morning...almost continuous cloud to ground lightning.

We picked up 2.33 inches of rainfall...quite a bit for such a short time period.

Everyone take care,

Very Respectfully,

Jon
1384. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's disgusting, they should be doing there jobs, not putting on programs.
I think they should change the name of that station to,, We play movies and talk about the weather when we feel like it channel. They had a flick called The Avengers on, what the heck are the people in charge there thinking? And what is this program "tell Cantore were to go crap? They should NOT be allowed to say they are the weather channel anymore. Maybe the indirectly associated with the weather station.
Good morning everyone. Hope all are well this morning. Evening Aussie.
1386. txjac
P451, could you please tell me from what time the image that you posted is from? Post number 1380. Thanks in advance
Whats wrong with this picture??

Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

1388. P451
Quoting txjac:
P451, could you please tell me from what time the image that you posted is from? Post number 1380. Thanks in advance


As far as I know it was up to date within 30 minutes time when posted.



btw- NEW BLOG
1389. hydrus
Quoting indianrivguy:
Whats wrong with this picture??

Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

lol!
1390. hydrus
Quoting hydrus: AUSSIE
I think they should change the name of that station to,, We play movies and talk about the weather when we feel like it channel. They had a flick called The Avengers on, what the heck are the people in charge there thinking? And what is this program "tell Cantore were to go crap? They should NOT be allowed to say they are the weather channel anymore. Maybe the indirectly associated with the weather station.
Good morning everyone
1392. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning everyone
Good Morning. One of the models has a system moving over The Caymans in early may. Might be interesting. NCEP/GFS model.
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning. One of the models has a system moving over The Caymans in early may. Might be interesting. NCEP/GFS model.


OH GREAT I AM ALREADY FEELING THAT CAYMAN IS GOING TO HAVE TROBLE LATER ANS ALSO IF YOU LOOK ONN THAT SAME MODEL IT ALSO BRINGS UP OUR FIRST CV STORM
Reference to post 1387...

Wow...180 out...I have seen the vectors for one or two storms out by as much as 90...but never all of them 180 out...pretty odd for sure.

v/r

Jon