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Quiet in the tropics; major severe weather outbreak in the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2007

A low pressure system (99L) over the Gulf of Mexico has moved ashore this morning near the Texas/Louisiana border. Lake Charles, LA long-range radar shows some heavy rain showers are moving ashore, but flooding problems are not expected.

A low pressure system has developed along the coast of Southeast Florida this morning. Long range radar out of Melbourne shows a little bit of organized banding of the associated rain showers. However, this system is headed northeastward out to sea. Wind shear is 20-30 knots over the low, and will increase, so development into a tropical depression is not expected.

Severe weather outbreak today and Thursday
A major severe weather outbreak is likely today over the Midwestern U.S., due to an intensifying low pressure system that is drawing in plenty of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (thanks in part to tropical disturbance 99L). Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have already been posted, and today's severe weather has the potential to generate strong, long-track tornadoes. The activity shifts to Chicago and the Great Lakes region tomorrow. Follow the action on our new interactive tornado map, which will post the tornado damage reports as they are received. The new feature also allows one to plot all the historical tornado activity back to 1950 for any region in the U.S.



Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Just out of lurking for a second with a quick question. When you look at the radar what does it look like if you are looking at a tornado? What color is it (did someone say green surrounded by red)? Thanks!
Hey Storm. Good afternoon Sir
I am assuming those storms moving up through texas and Louisiana are leftover energy from 99l that came ashore
my immediate question would be why the heck are they taking off in whether like that.

Seriously good question. Even the big commercial jets go around most stuff higher up than 35k feet. The vertical motion of the atmo during these storm is not to be challenged by Cessna.
Floodman 1:10 PM PDT on October 17, 2007

Yessir, Storm, theere does appear to be a fair amount of flying fecal material...I was surprised by the warnings in North LA though...


North LA?....Jerry, the doodie hits the fan in Hollywood everyday....

503. NEwxguy 3:13 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
I am assuming those storms moving up through texas and Louisiana are leftover energy from 99l that came ashore


That would be my thinking...
"And why does some chick with the NRA keep posting Moody Blues lyrics???

Guess they figure your going to sing to them before you shoot their A--.....lol
Rhino we are looking at the storm relative vorticy when we are talking about green and red. It will look like a hook with a ball on the end of it if its a tornado. The green is moving away the red twords.
You do mean the fit has hit the shan, right?
505. NRAamy 3:13 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
Floodman 1:10 PM PDT on October 17, 2007

Yessir, Storm, theere does appear to be a fair amount of flying fecal material...I was surprised by the warnings in North LA though...


North LA?....Jerry, the doodie hits the fan in Hollywood everyday....



Louisiana, Gun-Totin'-Amy LOL
Thanks bonedog! Back to lurking! :o)
LOL, TampaSpin...
Kew doggie! I havn't seen weather like this in a while. Watching out the window and I could swear it is nighttime.
Poor dogs must be hiding under the beds at home.
I think it's more than fecal matter flying around out there! lol
513. hurricanehanna 8:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
Kew doggie! I havn't seen weather like this in a while. Watching out the window and I could swear it is nighttime.
Poor dogs must be hiding under the beds at home.
I think it's more than fecal matter flying around out there! lol

where are you located?
New, in Lafayette, LA.
outa here...

try not to annoy the masses with your hippie lyrics, ok guys?

;)
Amy don't shoot anyone today .......seee ye.
Hey thats kinda cool you usually dont see girls that are in the NRA.... that is a very refreshing thing....

Well I am sitting here in SETX enjoying the wind, rain and HUMIDITY....lol Looks like LA and is really getting it... Good luck everyone!
517. NRAamy 3:18 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
outa here...

try not to annoy the masses with your hippie lyrics, ok guys?

;)



Go easy, Amy...see you soon
Thanks StormW. I saw that on some of the radar images but I am just learning.
515. hurricanehanna 8:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
New, in Lafayette, LA.

Be careful,radar shows some pretty good echos almost over you
Bye Amy
517. NRAamy 8:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
outa here...

try not to annoy the masses with your hippie lyrics, ok guys?

;)

lol,as she leaves with a parting shot
Thanks New -
I've got my ear to the door and my eye on the screen!

Got what looks like a tornado west of clinton.
Kansas radar
BD, you were right about Fort Scott. Penny hail and 60 mph winds.

Link
check out the kansas radar
The easiest way for those who have no clue how to look for hooks, red/green, interactions, is to turn the view storms option on in any of the radar modes. There will be squares and triangles on the more vigorous storms. If there is a vortex signature it will be a purple triangle.
thanks aggie. I have good radar eyes LOL cant see crap in the real world though but can pickup a pixle on a radar screen
anyone here really comfortable w/mean radial velocity readings? yes I read stormw's comment but I had further questions.

(only patient folks need answer) :)
I see it tampa NW of Clinton right on the border of the counties. Hook with green and yellow embeded inside the red
You're right, Tampa...
hopquick, unfortunately a radar loop takes five minutes and tornadoes don't wait for a pink triangle on-screen to touch down on land...

trying to be humorous here...
There is a new rotation on the last couple of frames in the Shreveport radar. Link

Look NE of center, in Webster parish.
aquak shot with your question
True ;)

That being said, do we know how LOW the rotation is?
aggie I see one SW of Monroe.
Kansas Radar

looks like the KC rotation either disapated or is hidding for a moment I dont see it on the latest frame

Its right along the blackoutline so it may still be there
Aquak,

Often rotation will come from an existing mesocyclone. So here on WU, you look at all the squares until they turn to diamonds. The diamonds are scary, especially when they turn to triangles. The storm markers do update as fast as the radars do. I don't know how the system works, but to get a purple, I would have to imagine that it picked up similar rotation at multiple levels at a threshold strength. But that's just MHO. Radars aren't high enough resolution to really get "everything".
538. Bonedog 8:32 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
aggie I see one SW of Monroe.


I dunno. I am leery of this method that far from the radar site and most importantly, moving tangential to the radar coverage area.
533. Floodman 4:29 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
You're right, Tampa...


it sure does appear to be a problem
spoted something WNW of El Dorado and due east of Texarkana just appeared in the last frame very bright green pixle in red surround
right Atmo. The further away from the radar, the higher the rotation. Ergo, if you are looking for near surface rotation, data quality dives with distance.
your right aggie on the newest update the pixles I saw disappeared. Like I said Im pixle watching when I spot something Ill shout it out to see if anyone else sees it.
lol i got 6 radar sites up...how many does everyone else have.....lol
Now Missouri might be in a world of hurt...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HOLDEN AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHILHOWEE BY 350 PM CDT.
WARRENSBURG BY 410 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF CENTERVIEW IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
I have just have 4, one in TX, one in KS, one in AR, one in OK, and one in MO, but on long range mode.
Deleted...repeat
good job Tampa. You spotted it correctly
I look at the radar, say they are in a world of hurt and then boom, WARNING. :(
Which storm (letter and number) is the rotation we're most worried about? (or just how all of them seem to be spinning :(
looks like the vort is going to be appearing on the otherside of the blackout line in the next frame or so
For US it has been a harmless tropical season so far. Unfornately for the SE a record dry season. What do this tell us. Something might pop soon? Or a snowy season? Nothing like a large snowfall can do to a drought. I dont know.
Glenpool (near Tulsa) airplane crash :( Is that the one you all were talking about?
The nexrad radars do have numerous levels that are scanned at each interval. The elevation angle from that parallel to the surface is increased and we end up with a 3d storm data set.

The angles are changed when there is a storm nearby or there is no storms. This is the reason some radars show a lot of noise during clear times, because the angle is lowered to very close to the surface so the radar can "see" further away. Less vertical definition during these times, more details about a storm somewhere else, and trees and buildings show up nearby (the light blue pixels surrounding a radar during clear times).

When storms are around the radar elevation is increased to get more vertical definition. There are a number of algorithms for different circumstances and thresholds for certain classifications, like TVS (Tornado Vortex Signature), for example.

The whole elevation change thing is to certain rules about number of levels scanned, etc and assigned policy numbers called VCP (Volume Coverage Potential).
looks like SE of kansas City a problem IMO
Awesome Atmoaggie, thanks!
Exactly Tampa, it looks like we have significant spin in 4-5 storms marching up the MO side of KS border.
Tampa looks like the vort has appeared on the other side. Clearly see it now red surrounding a green blob right on the red green line and in line with where the hook was before blackout
bonedog, hopquick, sorry, was not ignoring your responses.

To look for rotation using the mean radial velocity, will it always be apparent at the upper levels first, BEFORE ever working it's way thru mid-levels, and surface...

OR should all 4 levels of mean radial velocity be constantly scanned for presentation of wind differentiation/rotation?
Well everyone Tropical season is closed and over no more threats or US possible threats see you all June 2008.
Hunkering down myself. A cell's coming my way (Tulsa/Claremore) GL ALL. Bye.
Lastly, in the next 5 years NOAA is going to replace all of the nexrad radars with dual-pole radars (bipolar? Hmmm...)

The new polarimetric radars will give us a lot more information about the vertical (new) as well as the horizontal (current) traits of the hydrometeors (rain droplets, hail, cows) in a storm.

See details about them at: Link
For those of you who want to know what red out and green back look like in person here you go. This is in Jenks south of Tulsa headed NE at 60 mph

http://skycams.kotv.com/skycams/traffic1.html
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HOLDEN AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHILHOWEE BY 350 PM CDT.
WARRENSBURG BY 410 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF CENTERVIEW IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
that is the canm downtown if you go to the channel six website you can track this cell accross the eastern part of Oklahoma ..

http://kotv.com/weather/
aquak I usually just watch the base levels. The higher levels will show the rotation of the whole storm where as when looking for a tornado signature the rotation will be evident at the base
Problem in Indiana...nicely show on radar.Indianapolis Radar
Sirens off in Mustang, confirmed tornado in Kingfisher...no damage. Lots firing up along the dryline...cowboy up Mr Brown!
Afternoon everybody.

I'm just looking in for a minute or two. I notice some people are signing out until 2008 . I'll be around, since it looks like the S Indian and S Pacific basins may get busy a lot earlier than usual . . . but not today.

I'll prolly check in later before I head to bed.

Have fun all . . .
we have heavy rains large hail and 60+ mph winds here!!
569. jphurricane2006 8:54 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
wow didnt know it was December 1st lmao


well ok then see you all in 2008 I guess, *rolls eyes*

need one of those statements at least once a day for a good laugh
Man is Spring here....wow
mr bown is already cowboyed up. grabbing blankey a,f teddy bear and headed for the safe room!!!
Bonedog, thank you. I always thought it was easier to start at the top and work my way down thru the levels.
569. jphurricane2006 4:54 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
wow didnt know it was December 1st lmao


well ok then see you all in 2008 I guess, *rolls eyes*



They don't believe in the fat lady . . . [shakes head sadly]
Looks like a spaceship heading into bethany, good striation, rain free base, 1/4 size hail, awesome rotation
If I were in Tulsa, I would be getting in a cellar. Lots of areas look like rotation just coming into town from the SE and this is very near the radar site...close to surface.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0S&rid=inx&loop=yes
you gonna chase it conch
I am trying to put a image on here and it aint workin
shoot me a pic conch
man that hook is getting bigger or is just me?
Man.......that radar echoe looks vicious
Weatherboy I think you just killed the blog.....
Gotta go,everyone out there good luck,it's going to be a long night.
Loadin' up them babies...off to chase 'naders!
funny man.......
wow if that is a tornado in Indiana it is traveling a long way.....wow.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
358 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LOUANN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LOUANN AROUND 405 PM CDT...
HAMPTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...HAMPTON AROUND 450 PM CDT...
HARRELL AROUND 455 PM CDT...

Conch: when you say stuff like that I think some on here think your kiddin, lol
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SMACKOVER...NORPHLET...EL DORADO...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SMACKOVER...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENS...
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.
Back...we still in the tornado interactive?
looks like that pixle by el dorado I spoted was real after all. Issues a Tornado warning for it
No Im serious I cant scroll past post #578 the image size looks to be 1,000,000 X 25,000,000
601. BajaALemt 4:04 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
Back...we still in the tornado interactive?



Sit back and watch...Bone seems to have the best eye for hooks
gust front just hit here, 65+
this is looking really bad....really bad SE of Kansas City.
Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WEST SILOAM
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GENTRY...
SPRINGTOWN...DECATUR...GRAVETTE...HIWASSE AND BELLA VISTA.
looks like another hook forming with that KC storm? Sisters?
wall cloud and tornado sighted just over siloam springs ark!!
I'm waiting for the fat lady to sing but all I am hearing is an occasional warming up of the voice... No song yet....
I had to PRY myself away from here for awhile...

I really FEEL for these folks...nasty today
612. V26R
Afternoon All
Bonedog that is one big storm...we might have some serios problem coming.
606. TampaSpin 9:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
this is looking really bad....really bad SE of Kansas City.


Classic signature. If it touches down, I hope everyone is safe...even the cows.
615. V26R
Lightning tracker really lighting up!
Looks like a busy day in the Heartland!

Link
Ok let me rephrase. I will load and buckle my children in the Conch-Mobile, drop them off at granny's, and try to get close enough to get some good pics of the supercell and any rotation and/or tornados. the storm here has elongated and merged with another, less rotation. Looks like eastern Okla is where its at right now.
617. V26R
Hey Bone you see what the SPC has in store for us on Friday?
man the warnings are popping up faster then I can refersh all my open screens. I hope everytone is safe and getting underground :(
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE
man that cell over siloam is huge. lots of circulation.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
OWEN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY AT 520 PM EDT
GL CONCH!!!
Be safe and hope you get some good pics
SE of kansas city, Q1 w/tops at 31,000, hail most likely, about 40knots, crossing I70 in about 20-40 minutes.

Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
410 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARRENSBURG.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WARRENSBURG AROUND 415 PM CDT.
CONCORDIA BY 440 PM CDT.
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUSTONIA BY 445 PM CDT.
SWEET SPRINGS AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALMA BY 450 PM CDT.
Tornado warning just issued for the one in Indiana.....
V2 Ill check it out been very busy watching all these storms.
1 inch hail at NWXPSWY and Mac...Brown. You think Progressive will be busy tonight?

Rotation in Edmond now with this cell in OKC
LOL Look at post 621 Tampa
Bonedog we were all over that Missouri problem..good job.
got a hanger 6 miles north of OoLogah im headed out. Try and get some pics. BBL
628. Bonedog 5:14 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
LOL Look at post 621 Tampa


My bad...sorry.
Wow, 6 current, active tornado warnings. Let's go through the time warp again...back to October. Is this April wannabe, or what?
yea Tampa unfortunatly :(\

I also called the El Dorado one :(
634. V26R
If things pan out,
Looks like a busy day for us on Friday
629. TampaSpin 9:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
Bonedog we were all over that Missouri problem..good job.


Don't forget StormW, too.
HAve fun RAIREAIRE.....
Dont get to close... we need you to report back in, in one piece, I want a look at those pics.....lol
Hey V2!! Afternoon
638. V26R
Atmo Its called the second season for Severe
Storms
I better stop looking. Seems like the pixles I look at pop :(

Just like this hurricane season, everytime I went on vacation we had a storm form and 2 were cat 5s :(
correct aggie StormW spoted it too
lol... Bonedog
You are such a storm killer....lol
Atmo Its called the second season for Severe
Storms


Don't I know it, but the second season isn't normally as active as the first. More isolated events, usually.
643. V26R
Well do me a favor Bone, Don't plan anything for Friday
SRT I wish I was joking :(
I hear ya V2. Maybe I will just blog and not look
anyone hereing any reports from the KC storm? Its seems to be getting bigger and more organized on that hook
Wow what a day with these Tornados. Lets hope this severe weather potential doesn't spread as the front moves further east.
the one in Indiana has been a classic to watch.Link
hey i keep on switching the show post thing to show all but it keeps on going back to show average can someone help
Changing the subject for just a second........


When you get time.......click on the BLOGS at the top and check out in the right top corner where you can search the blogs.......cool stuff......If you want to go back and see some action with katrina and see who was on here back then .....its pretty cool....... Just put my name in the search and click some of the blogs....interesting to see the people then as to the ones now
that indiana one has been on the ground a while also :(
653. V26R
From the Sat. shot looks as if the Dryline in East Texas is about to Pop
Western La and SW Ark looking like its gonna be under the gun soon
Hiya haha....

If you select it in your profile...it'll stay
Mitch unfortunatley it looks that way. Tomorrow Chicago area is under the gun the the east coast on friday :(
On this site you can see all the local storm reports. Just scroll through Previous Version. One had hail at 2.5" thats almost baseball size.
651. Bonedog 5:26 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
that indiana one has been on the ground a while also :(


Yes it has. That thing has covered nearly 80 miles.
Gah this is setting to be reminiscent of when Enterprise got hit earlier this year. The rest of this week is going to suck.
By the way, the TCR for Ingrid is out. It was issued today.
I closed all my open rad windows. I dont want anymore storms to form.
Hiya Mich...

I was home at lunchtime watching the vortex sig on that one....

sad

Good friend of mine lives in Americus...they got hit too
There has been only one tornado reported so far (remember that just because a warning says that a tornado has been indicated by radar does not mean that there is actually a tornado, which is the case about 90% of the time, unless the warning says that one has been reported):

Dupage Severe Weather Warnings Listing Page
Since 12:47am CDT

Link
Heading home. BBL to check in.
You'd think it was SPRING for cryin out loud
667. V26R
Looks like Ianainapolis is gonna get nailed

Link
Dryline is through OKC, Northeastern OK still in for it. Brown better get in the fraidy-hole
I just looked at the storm in Indiana.....That sucker is BAD ..... Heading right for Indianapolis.....
670. V26R
Michael SPC page is historically slow in cases like this
Later, all. Weather coming in northshore Lake Pontchartrain...I am driving home now.
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 434 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
wb Pat
Like this one:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

MOC101-107-159-195-172200-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-071017T2200Z/
JOHNSON MO-PETTIS MO-LAFAYETTE MO-SALINE MO-
427 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SALINE AND
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAFAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KNOB NOSTER...OR JUST EAST OF
THE COMMUNITY OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR WARRENSBURG.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CONCORDIA BY 440 PM CDT.
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUSTONIA BY 445 PM CDT.
SWEET SPRINGS AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALMA BY 450 PM CDT.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
CENTERVIEW...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK RIGHT ALONG A WARM FRONT.
SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO REPORT ROTATION WITH THIS STORM...AND
ADDITIONAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
Wow some of these storms have been long trackers........not good..
how do i get my the page to change the show post thing
yes they have Tampa
669. weatherboyfsu 4:34 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
I just looked at the storm in Indiana.....That sucker is BAD ..... Heading right for Indianapolis.....



The south suburbs, between the city and Southport...not good
The only one that i see right now that is kicking a..... is the in Indiana....that is a big daddy
666. BajaALemt 4:34 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
You'd think it was SPRING for cryin out loud


Well, this is kind of normal for this time of the year, although usually November is the big fall severe weather month (in 2005 there were more tornadoes in November than in May, as well as the deadliest tornado in the last few years).
*watching Phillipsburg, KS*
Kansas Severe T-storm Warning

Crystal NOAA voice to Text.

Link
676. hahaguy 4:38 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
how do i get my the page to change the show post thing



Go to your profile and change the filter settings there...
First official tropical disturbance forms in the South Pacific Ocean and was designated by Nadi, Fiji as "Tropical Disturbance 01F".


South Pacific Ocean
------------------------

Area of Responsibility
=============================
RSMC Nadi - Fiji Meteorological Services (E of 160E)
Bureau of Meteorology - Brisbane (W of 160E/S of 10S)
TCWC - Port Moresby (W of 160/N of 10S)
TCWC Wellington - New Zealand (E of 160E/S of 25S)

RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
10.1S 166.0E - 20 knots 1006 hPa

moving slowly


Its moving at a right angle and its not in an organized line.....and its very intense......all points two a F3 or F4 on the ground......
Three more tornado warnings just issued. Go through previous to see all

Link
i no that how do i get to my profile lol
The Indiana storm seems to be loosing some punch before Indy Thank God.
great VIPIR radar image from Indy


Link
690. V26R
Bone I hope that warm front calms down before it gets in out neck of the woods
NEWS 25 Evansville, Indie..
Link
haha?

Go to Member Settings/Edit Profile...it's in there
Tropical Disturbance 01F - Fiji Area of Responsibility

If u can remember about a week ago Tropical Disturbance 01R formed in the SW Indian Ocean

V2 the local met office discusions have another warm front pushing through thursday night
That is a good image, Bone
Tropical Disturbance 01F/93P

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S
165.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST
OF AUKI HARBOR, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 170606 SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WHICH IS
SLOWLY ORGANIZING AROUND AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
thanks. Use the link to see it also. They have it on live. Just another perspective. I really do wonder if that circular hole in the storm image is the tornado?
698. V26R
Okay calling for weak lift when it pushes north
but that puts us in the warm sector for Friday
Not Good
689. Bonedog 4:42 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
great VIPIR radar image from Indy



The storm has an eye... as in where a tornado might be (something similar in the Greensburg storm)...

Michal thats what i was wondering also.

Yea V2 we are going to be primed inside the warm sector with the approaching cold front. Unstable atmosphere but the one thing I dont see in place which is a blessing is a dry slot in the upper atmoshere. That can save us from really bad storms
bone? Have you got the velocity up on that one?
wicked
I don't like the vortex heading towards Indy. A major urban tornado is a disaster we haven't really dealt with in a long time.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD 01F [1006HPA] NEAR 10.1S 166.0E AT 181800Z
SLOW MOVING, CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF 01F.
WISH-TV 8 Indianapolis Webcam

Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBURG...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONTPELIER...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF DENHAM
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MONTPELIER BY 505 PM CDT...
GREENSBURG BY 515 PM CDT...
684. HadesGodWyvern 5:40 PM AST on October 17, 2007

Cud u give me the link to the web page where u copy and paste that info from

Thanks
I had to do a doubletake when I saw this - for a second I thought they were referring to Greensburg, Kansas:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBURG...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONTPELIER...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF DENHAM
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MONTPELIER BY 505 PM CDT...
GREENSBURG BY 515 PM CDT...
Patrap,

Glad to see that you are well and blogging again.

Best Wishes
There was one in Nassau County, New York! WTH?!
Not quite.Just been allowed home to prep for another colonoscopy.Then back for the cutting. Im resting comfortably here in the trailer.
Never thought I'd be saying that.

Thanx again for all the concern.
I see something In texas N of Lufkin
I better log off..if T catches me outta bed.ILL be grounded..LOL
These storms are like a train on the track with no end...they just keep going....this is like the spring of the year not fall like.
sorry
Evenin yall. How are things looking. Lots of severe weather in OK/LA area? Tropics are sleeping?
LOL, Pat...git, we dont want you grounded!!
how do you get a pic on here.........i cant seem to get it right.........darn it
Evenin Baroness
Seriously weatherboy whats the deal with the images, the blog is unreadable. Your properties read 2500X25000.
go 640x480 please......
cattlebaroness

Not too bad in OKC, small hail, supercells that looked like spaceships, some rotation, one short lived tornado on the ground in Kingfisher...no damage. The dryline has pushed through the OKC metro and most activity is to the NE now.
723. weatherboyfsu 5:02 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
how do you get a pic on here.........i cant seem to get it right.........darn it



Follow the instructions here (link is on the right side of this blog as well, under Recommended Links). That is how I post images.
code to post picture


In Arkansas .......just west of Pine bluff.....

theres some serious stuff there right now.
730. V26R
Bone that dry line over East Texas is firing up
Hey, Baja, Conch, So the US is heating up. Are they still thinking there will be a lot of evening concerns? That is a dangerous situation. Texas seems to be clear right now, was an area in far north, but I think it is heading toward you Conch in OKC.
I am in awe right now at all the places fireing. And the Indy storm is still spining that things has crossed 2 counties
that spot north of Lufkin I spoted poped and a warning is issued. Thats 4 for 4 :( :( I just have to stop looking :( :(
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
515 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RUFE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RUFE BY 525 PM CDT...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WRIGHT CITY BY 530 PM CDT...
RINGOLD BY 535 PM CDT...
It's something else, bone....but then they're runnin around 45mph..fast movers
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
458 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CUSHING...
OR 21 MILES WEST OF GARRISON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GARRISON BY 530 PM CDT...

737. V26R
That Indy storm shgould start dieing down,
Loosing the Sun out there
Another five tornado warnings in ~last 10 min.

Link
Bone, Lufkin? Do you have a link? Pretty please.
look at post 736 barroness
man these warnings are just non stop right now. I think its going to be a wild night folks.
742. V26R
New MSD just posted

Link
Just watched the local weather, TX looks like the only clear state, everywhere east & north of us sure looks like yall are in for it.
the indy is still spining :( I really hope there is nothing on the ground there :(
745. V26R
Barroness Eastern Part should start seeing some action soon, Dry Line is firing up
there
I made it home just in time for my own tornado warning, in St Tammany parish, LA, including Mandeville and heading towards Abita Springs.
747. V26R
Can't tell Bone but its loosing its mass
eastern Tx still has to watch baroness. The dry line there is strating to fire and one of the first storms that did was issued a tornado warning. Also the SPC in Norman has eastern Tx under a new mesoscale box though this evening.

still keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the radio/tv
does the wunderground twister map update by itself??
And I remarked that 6 current active tornado warnings was a lot earlier. Now 9...

V2 check it on the strom volocity setting you can clearly see the spin

Link
Firing up around Bogalusa..sheesh
yes VA self updates every 30 seconds. And adds the triangle when a tornado warning is issued and a tornado graphic when a confirmed report comes in
756. V26R
Baja where is Bogalusa?
754. BajaALemt 10:29 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
Firing up around Bogalusa..sheesh



And Franklinton.
haha? I aint pissed *smiles*

Under Member settings....look on the right where it says 'edit profile'...it's in THERE
yah, 3 warning up in that area
OMG, I've just been away for some time and now I can hardly keep up with all the warnings popping up and I'm currently watching a dozen different sites *head spins*
v2? LA......Northeast
CAN'T keep up with them anymore!!! This morning...we could
Bogalusa is near the R9 labeled storm in WU radar.
right now Mis and Ar will be the targets. ALot of spin there and strong line of storms
gotta go .....son plays football game tonite...heads up..could be a long nite for people....
769. V26R
Looks like the East Texas Stuff should be mostly Tornadic in nature
has all the ingredients

Link
Rare, you have seen these before, just uploaded the pics from my 1st 'nader hunt in 2003. The tornado in the pic was small, but very fast and demolished the farm we started at in Binger.
umm i got no email y should i?
its still not there lol
771. vabeachhurricanes2 10:40 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
umm i got no email y should i?


We are having a big party without you...just kidding.
774. V26R
Gotta run
Stay Safe everyone
ouch wichita just got rocked by a bow echo
Haha!! Im SOOOOOO sorry...MY bad...

Click 'my blog'....then look over on the right under control panel..click edit profile...

Sorry bout that
Baja, I don't know if you meant this with Northeast, but there is something northeast of Lufkin:
Radar of Shreveport
keep an eye on the south end of that bow. could spin up I do see a pixle by arkansas city.
taiste.....bogalusa is in ne LA
thank you baja *smiles*
V2...nite
778. Bonedog 10:44 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
keep an eye on the south end of that bow. could spin up


lol i see at least 6 bows which one r u talking about?
*smiles back...sheepishly*
Bone? I just got a "radar not available" for arkansas city
BD, look two parishes north Lake Pontchartrain in theSVR

That has to be some real rotation, wonder if it on the ground.
the bow echo that just rocked wichita specifically arkansas city I see a pixle on the vort radar. :(
784. BajaALemt 10:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
Bone? I just got a "radar not available" for arkansas city



thats never a good sign...
brb guys have some work to do.
just came up...that was weird
779. BajaALemt 10:45 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
taiste.....bogalusa is in ne LA


No, Monroe is NE LA, I think most everyone thinks of Washington Parish as part of SE LA, or maybe western Florida (really was part of the West Florida Republic once upon a time)
nope thats a good pic however you sure were far away, lo, check out my blog and see an upclose and personal one, lol
ne of NO...right...(I mistyped that...for sure)

Well, I live in Baja Alabama (FL panhandle)...so I "get" that lol
Yeah but (I) called it tracked it and met the local station chasers on the way out when it was all over...the one who will remain nameless asked "hey...you didnt see any tornados that way did you?" I was proud of myself even if I was 2 miles off. But I was ready, I did my homework, I had my 'nader kit...laptop, camera, and 1 box of Depends...a full tank of gas and a bottle of Appletons...for snake bite :)
Thanks Baja and atmoaggie for the crash course in geography. I love searching places on maps once I know where to look for them. :)
Tornado warning in MO...Just SW of Springfield.

W8 62 dBZ 28,000 ft. 44 kg/m² 40% 90% 1.00 in. 40 knots SW (219)
Link
and a bottle of Appletons

ok, I give...what is/are Appletons?

Ever since that one from morre chased me up the highway i dont really like to get to up close and personal with any of them.


THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.
Its very smooth anti hangover rum from Jamaica, Amy
NRAamy appletons is a snake bite kit . hunters and folk out in the woods usually have it with them. we have copperheads here as well as rattlers south.
I dumped the link to the page with the storm reports. I think it was on the NWS site but I'm not quite sure. Could someone post it again, please? *bats eyeslashes*
Brown, Magnus loves coperheads...they have 2 flavors of meat
wow you can use rum for snakebites??? LOL!
spc storm reports here
wow you can use rum for snakebites??? LOL!

Some might say you could rum for any ailment. Others might recommend vodka.
Tornado near springfield dissipated, now theres another vortex sig. on the western edge of MO. 1.75" hail. 100%
Well i think its over for use here. Just some rain maybe later tonight. Nice and cool with a light breeze. All the windows are open enjoying the nice weather.
thanks guys!
LakeShadow

Watch for the fast moving multi-v's...does that system have a broad base?
conch looks like they are getting hammered down by your spouses hometown in meth county!
Yeah, too bad...my wifes uncle already put the goats in and the wife out...lots of homeless women in Mcurtain county tonight.
I dont think the two were cells were close enough to be related, but yes, theres a broad base the one I'm watching now had 2 vortex signatures relatively close. now theres just one.
Theres a line of mesocyclones attached to the systems as well..
Link
LakeShadow

If it has jumpin' history be carefull chasing it if you do, they can drop on you while you think you are in the "blind" spot
LakeShadow

Wow, looks similar to what we had this afternoon. They will for sure be fast movers with some hail and decent straight line winds
hello all. any large populated areas been affected yet?
thanks, atmo. Bookmarked.
I'm off then, good night everyone. See you tomorrow again.
Storm Reports Today

What A Mess

Current storm capable of producing a tornado
2007-10-17 07:25:11 PM EDT



Just one last question about the blue areas on the second map. Is that really snow?? Winter coming early... gotta check that. Indeed: West Yellowstone
just a test message
I see you adjuster
All right I'm off for awhile. I am gonna eat Momma made meatloaf and you know that is FAT MAN "crack" Yall be good ttyl.
Snow

Take care Rare
what is the largest hail reported so far?
2morrow

The first tropical depression of the SW Pacific Ocean has form. Tropical Depression 01F in the Fiji Area of responsibility.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [1000HPA] ANALYZED NEAR 10.4S 166.0E AT 172100Z SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. POSITION POOR BASED ON GMSIR/VIS WITH ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA IS AROUND 29C.

It has not been upgraded by the JTWC as yet so it still remains 93P. If it was to be upgraded it would been called Tropical Depression 02P or 02P NONAME.


nope.. It would be called Tropical Depression 02P.
832. ecflawthr 11:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2007
what is the largest hail reported so far?

2 1/2" hail
2054 250 2 N MEDICINE LODGE BARBER KS 3731 9858 FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED AS WELL. (DDC)
neva mind
Ur right it would be 02P.....cuz 01S already formed.
Up to 11 tornadoes so far...
842. pcola
Where'd everybody go?
843. beell
chasing velocity couplets-i had to take a break
Tornado warning west of Memphis
yup 01S which should have been named "Tropical Cyclone Lee", that was confirmed by BOM Perth to had become a tropical cyclone formed in late July.
58 Dbz...28,000 ft
835. Weather456 7:59 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
The first tropical depression of the SW Pacific Ocean has form. Tropical Depression 01F in the Fiji Area of responsibility.


See why I made the comment about early starts? Usually we get down into Nov before we can say we've seen action in two of the southern hemisphere's basins.
Yup. That's snow, all right. This pic is from a lodge about 20 miles ESE of the entrance to Yellowstone.

Hey guys, I had to go tend to the critters. Sorry I missed the posts, thanks.
Link
little rock base reflectivity loop
look at the clusters of mesocyclones.
looks like that vortex dissipated, but the cell grew 1,000 ft? thats odd... the tornado warning is still posted.
we got a major storm coming through here right now. Tulsa has numerous power outages so Im sure Im not far behind. We have 70mph straight line winds and heavy heavy rain.

Going to shut it all down in case we have a power surge. BYE be back on we it passes
watch ccc over cayman 3rd system trackin down fr n ca sw oreg into 4 corners trigging another cyclone over plains aided with s flow off gom from current system on the plains which will leave behind as it tracks ne ward to grt lakes potenial exsists for this third system to be extreme will pickup the ull dragged it n ward in gom where developement possible as well . at which will be end of any drought conditions along east conus as these to systems work in tandem and track ne wards over eastern half of conus timing is everything thing with this possible extreme weather event.


This is just southwest of Jackson, WY, which is just about where that little dot is east of the WY/UT state line. This is Teton Pass, where they get more snow longer . . .LOL
Brown, there is a 'nader heading to Hogsplitter or Hogwaller...Hog something, is that near you?
wow rareair, good luck and stay safe!!!
Looks like this system currently moving through the Rockies is going to give the higher mountains in WY their first really good snowfall of the season. I'm sure they'll be glad of the moisture - they were pretty darn dry all summer . . .
Im on speaker with rare right now standing on his porch watching the wall cloud
Where rareaire is...
Link
Sorry rare, its Hogshooter :)
860. beell
NE of Little Rock
Link
Looks somewhat persistent-Already Tor Warned.
He is in Oolahga...or something like that...up there near Hogshooter
Im not looking forward to Thur and Fri here in lower Alabama.
hey conch isnt it too dark to see a wall cloud? is there a lot of lightening?
can he get video or pics of it all?
Just wanted to pop in real quick to say (if it hasnt already been noticed) the SSD site is declaring that small low pressure east of florida a invest...no number yet right now
just got on Michfan, what's up with lower Al?
Also I noticed we have a early start to one of the southern hemisphere regions...that area doenst generally start having cyclones till the Nov. time period if I am correct. the SW indian though seems to be on schedule, as their season begins in October
If 01F was named it would be named "Daman"
99L is off the navy site


now back to severe weather
92S - An anticyclonic signature is starting to become more evident with very deep convection near the Infrared center.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM TSTM WND DMG TULSA 36.13N 95.92W
10/17/2007 TULSA OK AMATEUR RADIO

WIND COLLAPSED TENT AT OKTOBERFEST...LATER
INFORMATION...38 TO 40 INJURED IN THE AREA.
Good evening everyone. Nasty weather out there!!
CATL wave looks rather interesting tonight/ lots of moisture and wind shear is 10 knots. rotatioh near 7N 42W. quite evident on the infra red loop
Auch nein!!!!
WIND COLLAPSED TENT AT OKTOBERFEST...LATER
INFORMATION...38 TO 40 INJURED IN THE AREA.
I feel like a jack n the box. Computer issues. How is the severe weather out there.
Michfan: Hey What's going on thur or fri in lower Alabama? I live in Mobile and was just wondering. I didn't know if I have missed something.
Sheri
wow look at the moisture build over TX
Lake, where was the Oktoberfest?
hey cattlebaroness, it was near Tulsa Ok.
impressive bowing in NE Ak.
I hope noone was seriously injured. My DSL went out, so I am on dial up, can't pull up satellite or nothin. Can someone tell me where the hot spots are? Thanks.
Memphis is about to get a dose.
Link
If you are interested in what's happened so far in the Southern Hemisphere this year (remember they have already had half a season this year) you should check out hurricaneblast's blog. He looks like he's going to continue logging storm tracks now that the new season has begun.
Just an Reminder to all that STORMCHASERS is starting in 10 Minutes on the Discovery Channel.

see my blog for info (No I am not advertising for my blog)

Link
887. V26R
Barroness where are you located?
Our upper low is helping to enhance showers over the Central Caribbean.

Have a good night all...





456,

Geez. It looks like that ULL's going to drag enough precipitation north so that the NW Bahamas is going to get another soaking. I've been hoping for a rain-free weekend so my sinuses can dry out . . .

S4 53 dBZ 18,000 ft. 12 kg/m² 0% 0% 0.00 in. 90 knots SW (225)
Before I go:

Storm Report:
2007-10-17 19:44:00 EDT

Lat/Lon: 37.32,-93.43

A brief tornado touchdown north of Willard reported by the Springfield Branson National Airport control tower and a National Weather Service employee (sgf).



Storm Report:
2007-10-17 19:38:00 EDT

Lat/Lon: 37.35,-93.45

Minor structural damage to a house,barn,and trees. (Sgf)



E8 56 dBZ 29,000 ft. 21 kg/m² 0% 20% <0.50 in. 80 knots SSW (203)
here's another one. all found on the memphis nexrad radar
thats some crazy jet stream energy.
Nah i was just saying this is setting up to be a nasty couple of days or so where i live. Its just once you see the destruction i saw from the Enterprise, AL tornado that killed 8 high school students, it kind of puts you on edge.
Where's NRAamy?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 711...

VALID 180138Z - 180245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 711 CONTINUES.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDING
FROM NERN INTO EAST CENTRAL OK. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ACTIVITY TRACKS TO THE
NE...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
EXIT WW 711 PRIOR TO THE 03Z EXPIRATION. THUS...WW COULD BE
CANCELLED EARLY.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2007


Link

somethin's happening here!!! look in the red watch box...just about to pass So. of Memphis...probably really populated there...
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W STAR CITY 33.94N 92.04W
10/17/2007 CLEVELAND AR EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL HOMES...TRAILERS AND BARNS WERE DAMAGED OUTSIDE
OF STAR CITY. AT LEAST 6 HOMES WERE UNHABITABLE. THERE
WERE MANY TREES BLOWN DOWN AND POWER IS OUT IN PARTS OF
LINCOLN COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
902 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG ANDOVER 37.69N 97.14W
10/17/2007 BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A COLD STORAGE FACILITY. STEEL DOORS
BLOWN OUT...ONE WALL BOWED OUT. ROOF PARTIALLY REMOVED.
INITIAL EM SURVEY SUGGESTS ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS.
INITIAL DAMAGE ESTIMATE 1 MILLION DOLLARS. PLANT WAS
EMPTY OF EMPLOYEES AT THE TIME OF THE DAMAGE.

V26R I am in Comanche, TX right now.
What's the latest rain forcast for Atlanta?
Thank
Are you in Enterprise, Michfan. I'm there once a month on business, I live in Mobile, but I've seen some of the devastation. Not cool and our prayers are always with ya.


1910 ENTERPRISE COFFEE AL 3131 8585 *** 9 FATAL *** 8 KILLED IN SCHOOL WHEN CONCRETE WALL COLLAPSED IN HALLWAY. TORNADO PATH APPROX. 200 YARDS WIDE AND 10 MILES LONG. INFO BASED ON STORM SURVEY BY WCM ON (TAE)

In case anyone needs a frame of reference for what im talking about.

vortex signature heading to Wisc.
Im stationed at Fort Rucker Alabama.
cool, thank you for your service. Having spent almost 10 years in the Air Force,(civillian now) I know it's not easy. Keep up the good work. My job has taken me to Fr Rucker a few times. It's always weird goin to a military installation and being on the outside lookin in knowing you used to wear that uniform..
Link

Here's Thursdays forecast for Atlanta, GA...looks like rain...
Yeah i just hit my 10 year mark. 10 more to go.
cool, keep it up... I'm outta here, have a good night
I'm outta here, too...my heart goes out to you who are watching this stuff from your town's radars...even the threat of tornadoes make for sleepless nights. night tornadoes must be terrifying!
anyways, good night and good luck!
Thanks, all for watching, posting the severe weather outbreak. Not over yet!

I'm tired! Have a good sleep, all!

MLC<---------------out for some shut-eye!
nite cowboy
The swirl of Cape Canaveral has been tagged invest by NOAA & put on Floater 1.
914. Skyepony 11:23 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
The swirl of Cape Canaveral has been tagged invest by NOAA & put on Floater 1.


It appears to be moving SE.
Possible tornado E. of Memphis.
917. UYA
I don't see no Lantic Invests on no NRL! Where is the elusive Invest please? I know you say it's off East coast Florida....but someone please show me some Sat proof and an invest #.
I don't ever want to see a tornado in my life, but I definitely don't want to see one at nighttime. I would much prefer severe weather to hit during the day where you can actually see what's going on and take necessary precautions.

Hope everyone stays safe.
Arkansas has several mesocyclones that recently formed. Some headed toward Little Rock.

That invest has been kinda wandering the last 6 hrs or so.
Nice spot, Skyepony! TS, the se movement is probably the tops getting blown off, reckon? Sitting closer to still! If shear rests, more development possible, but that front is coming across the CONUS, too, so it'd likely go fishing! Fiesty lookin' lil booger, though!

Here ya go, UYA. Link
UYA~ I left the link to the floater it's on. Here's the NOAA tropical page. It has no number since it has only been tagged by NOAA, like I said.
922. UYA
I know there's a surface low out my backdoor...but I don't see no Lantic Invest number on the old NRL yet.
923. UYA
OK....Thanks Skye. So, it's just an un-official floater committed type non-Invest!
I get it now.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 40 MILES EAST
OF CAPE CANAVERAL. IT HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NW IN THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER...WELL
OFFSHORE. EXCEPT FOR BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWER(S) TO THE VOLUSIA AND
NORTH BREVARD COAST...EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL OVER
LAND. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD MOTION AND BE JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

KELLY
supeior hurr. west wind tomorrow nov gales come early
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Distubance Summary (0300z 18Oct)
=========================================
An area of convection (90W) persisted near 17.9N 149.0E or 250 NM northeast of Saipan. This relocation is warrented as the initial disturbance dissipated and a secondary circulation has consolidated east of the northern Mariana Islands. 2131z SSMI Image depicts this organizing circulation, with gradient-enhanced flow to the north and east, and limited weak westerly flow south and west of the developing center. A partial Quikscat Pass confirms the gradient-enhanced flow (25 knots from the southeast) in the northeastern quadrant of the system. Upper level subtropical ridge is reorienting, and wind shear values are expected to decrease as the disturbance moves under the ridge axis within the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Given the improving upper level environment and consolidating low level circulation, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to FAIR.
The area around 73w just north of SA has a nice anti-cyclone, low shear, some clouds and a little low pressure (1007 mb) emerging off the SA coast. A little spot of higher zonal shear out in front of it, and may be too close to the ull in the nw Caribbean.


850 mb vorticity
Good morning folks. Can anyone tell me how Patrap is? Also, how close to normal is Lake Okeechobee?
Michfan, you scared the heck outa me til I saw the date on the tornado map.lol
930. UYA

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO/AR/SRN IL/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 713...714...

VALID 180356Z - 180500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 713...714...CONTINUES.

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF MO AND AR EXTENDING INTO SRN
IL/ WRN KY AS ONGOING AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS MO/AR
AND SPREADS ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THESE NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY REPLACE ALL
OR PARTS OF WW/S 713 AND 714.

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS EXTENDING NWD
INTO MO/IL/ WRN KY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 80-90 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
INTO NWRN AR...WITH RECENT STRONG WIND GUST REPORTS IN SWRN
MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE. FARTHER
S...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2007
931. UYA

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There is a lot of moisture moving around on the WV loop.

Link
Around Peoria, Il...Storms tonight not nearly as bad as they looked...rain in most areas of less then .4 inches... Had wind in the 30 mph range earlier..

We will get the heavy stuff tomorrow morning and afternoon...
934. UYA
Tornado Watch 717

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)


935. UYA

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/MUCH OF MS/MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
TN/WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 715...

VALID 180527Z - 180700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 715 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 715. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL
AND PERHAPS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN KY.

UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 715...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCING CHANNEL OF
ASCENT...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AR...AS FAR EAST AS THE LITTLE ROCK VICINITY AS OF 05Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED -- GENERALLY AROUND 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE -- VERY STRONG FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AND POTENTIALLY
WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/NORTHERN MS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
400 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...A RELATIVE LULL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF MS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
VEERING FLOW ALOFT/LIMITED MASS CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH
EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2007
this is kiko
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2007 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 14:53:09 N Lon : 104:32:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt



6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.4 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -57.9C Cloud Region Temp : -49.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Is it me, or is that ULL in the WCar trying to add some moisture near its COC????

Link
938. UYA
Just looks like an ULL in the Carib trying to add some moisture.
939. UYA
There's no shortage of mid-level moisture....but switch on the infrared loop and there's not much to see.
Baha....It seems to be doing so...We will just have to wait and see what it does over the weekend...Also i believe the NHC has just declared that area of low pressure east of Florida Invest 90L.
catl wave looks quite interesting this morning.
wind shear is now 10 knots needs watching




Link
StormW Morning
catl looking good this morning. what you think?
Morning, everybody.

Doesn't look like much is happening out there at the moment. The Twave in the Car is barely visible, and the one in the CATL has showers only over the ITCZ at this time. The Car ULL looks to be moving into the GoM.

Hopefully the US weather will quiet down.

Good Morning All

Good Morning Halifax, Nova Scotia

Current Conditions:

Scattered Cloudiness
Temperature of 5C
Winds from the WNW at 2.6 m/s
Pressure down to 1014 HPA

Webcam Image
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.
TO the person who asked about Lake Okeechobee. It is at 10.05 Feet, still around 4 feet below normal. However, even if we were to get enough rain to rbing it up, SFWMD and the Army Corp. of Engineers has advised they will drain it as there is a fear the levies will not hold. This was in the Miami Herald a week ago.

I hope it is a quiet day for Tornado's in the S. I have been in and around several Tornado's in Arkansas... I'd rather go thru a Hurricane.

Morning Storm...morning all.
Morning folks......

Dakster, NOT on the 'dirty side' ANYWAY :)
Storm
i was really looking at 50W although the one at 35W is beginning to flare up
morning gang....
pouring rain here in Biloxi, Ms this morning, a tornado has touched down in Jackson County ( Vancleave area ), some cars have been over turned and some homes have been damaged, lots of tress down.......waiting for more updates, they'll know more when daylight comes
Morning Folks....Tropics quiet and some light rain starting to fall in the Florida Panhandle this morning.....Saw a tornado warning this am near Mobile and don't know/expect that type of weather in the Panhandle today (although NWS has forecasted the possibility of some stronger storms tommorow)...That front seems to moving pretty fast so things should clear out around here by tommorow....
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.


These are really your thoughts....Don't think i would want you living anywhere close to me!!
Good morning all..JP Gator..StormW
Morning Aubie
nice steady rain here in the panhandle
Im seeing some strong echo's over the water coming near Panama City.....no warnings posted yet.
Aubie I am jealous....we haven't gotten the first drop. It is looking better over the next day or two. Usually rains in time for Saturdays!
weatherg8r where you live at..we have not had any rain here in Tampa either.
Tampa, I'm looking at the same radar image (from Bonifay N of PC) and it does look like some squirly weather headed this way.......
Tampaspin...I am in Gainesville.
Could you guys pleeeeeese do a rain dance for us here in SC? Its been so cloudy here this morning and yesterday evening that daylight looked like night....and only a Tr of rain reported. Thxs we appreciate it! :)
gator.the rain is nice!!! hopefully ya'll get some too
969. beell
Part of a repost from another blogger
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
...TN VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT FROM THE SW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH...WRN
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
Morning folks. Hope everyone made it through the evening storms safely. Texas is in the clear for the next few days.
Morning All!

What are anyones thoughts on the Moderate Risk area today? Looks like their talking 70mph winds possibly with tornado's. Wondering what the likelyhood is of that occurring? I have alot of family in Northern Indiana. Any input is greatly appreciated.
Canewhip
Mother lives in Southern Indiana.....got a radar fixed over her house........lol
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG

Beell? MLCAPE? I get the joules/kilo part.
975. beell
Doc-Maybe they mean MU?
Looks like I will as well Tampa. Gotta watch out for Mom!
977. beell
Convective Area Potential Energy
979. beell
Thank ya StormW!
Man, the end of the season blows..... no blobs to watch, now its back to watchin blobs on the models! LOL

Heard about the two people killed in the Trailor, very tragic indeed!

Hopefully we will have no more loss of life with twisters today!
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.


LOOK at message 947 from Eyewall911....Makes no sence or reasoning to make statement like that.
Goog Morning all!
MLCAPE: Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy.

Thanks, StormW and Beell
According to the tropical atlantic satellite site there is a new invest.
988. beell
Alway a crap shoot. CAPE was higher South,
Dynamics higher north yesterday.

Hi-CAPE/Low Shear, Low Helicity = Tornado
Lo-CAPE/Hi Shear, Hi Helicity = Tornado
Anything in between = Tornado
But the navysite dosent have it up yet. It is located over water E of Cape Canaverial.
984. TampaSpin 12:43 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.

LOOK at message 947 from Eyewall911....Makes no sence or reasoning to make statement like that.

good morning,
Tampa,the usual troll comment to stir the pot.
Morning Pub
993. beell
MUCAPE
Most Unstable Layer
Might as well throw that one out there to.
994. pcola
Good Morning everyone. Lots and I mean lots of rain here in Pensacola. One of our decorative ponds is overflowing and the other (more under cover) has gained 2 to 3 inches of water. Around 6am the rain was coming straight out of the south at about 60 degrees.
The new invest according to SSD site:

Was this system the one that Dr. M. mentioned that would just go out to sea?
New Blog
Mornin all. Any rain headed for central FL? I see on radar that the panhandle is getting some good rain. I also see something off the E FL coast.

Link
Canewhisperer where's your family at in Indiana? I'm originally from Ft. Wayne. I too indeed hope they fare well this afternnon