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Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Boomers here..Link
Hope the RFRs aren't too high, Pa...
Hey weatherguy03,
I went outside today to get some excercise, like you said yesterday I was playing soccer but remember the 2pm rule in FL with T-storms :) lol
1004. Patrap
Daily dose of 1-2 inchers..really have a good rate falling here
Afternoon Pat, MN, and CRS

I am out, to enjoy the day. See y'all later ☺
Sprinkling here - good weather for cutting the lawn - headed out to do it - b4 wife gets home...
Sporteguy..LOL Yeah today here too!! I was outside until the storms came. Its nice to see we are back to normal in Florida again. Wow, soccer in this heat. You are brave!
OK, the baby has been fed, so I am back. Anyway, I don't want to debate global warming as whole. My original interest in my post on the rise in global temperatures was this: Back in 2005 everyone tied the large number and strength of the hurricanes to the rise in SST's. It did not seem unreasonable given the fact that higher SST's = more energy for stronger hurricanes. Then 2006 came and everyone said that we should expect another big season because the temperatures were up again (though not as high as 2005) but it never happened.

What I was trying to point out, and I wonder if anyone else has any info on, is the fact that the higher global temperatures have also caused the Sahara desert to expand. The dry air from the SAL was a big factor (among other things) in 2006 fizzling out. I just wondered if anyone else had heard of anyone discussing this in the predictions of future weather patterns based on temperature changes. An expanded Sahara is likely to make it harder for hurricanes to form. Which is likely to be the stronger influence, higher SST's or a larger/drier SAL?

As for the charts that were posted on the Antarctic ice core study and such I will simply put some links below that people can follow if they wish to learn more or see the results that I was referring to:

Wiki article with chart

LiveScience Article

Scientific American Article
by now we can officially say 2007 aint gonna be like 2005. i wonder when the next record breaking season will be. will it be in the next few years? or in another decade? century? rhetorical questions of course.
Thanks for the link Patrap, that mess is moving out of NO, headed for us in Miss
1020. Patrap
Plenty more to come for everyone this afternoon..Link
THE ALT WAVE STILL HAS POTENTIAL. THERE IS STILL A SPIN 11N 35W



Link
1022. Patrap
The flow onshore from the GOM is a long fetch Link
I think we could still see a 2004 or 2005 season

2004 is possible (the first storm in 2004 formed on August 1, one of the latest starts on record but it still had 15 storms), but not 2005 by any means; 2005 already had 5 storms by now - including two Cat 4s (Emily becomes a Cat 5 on July 16th).
Here is the 2PM Discussion from the convection approaching the islands....Development chances seem rather low to me but if this area were to go ahead and develope my props will go out to the CMC model.

STRONGLY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N55W TO NEAR TRINIDAD WAS
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CLEARLY SHOW A WINDSHIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THE WAVE IS COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120-180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PUERTO RICO BY 24 HOURS.
Posted By: randommichael at 7:10 PM GMT on July 15, 2007. (hide)
Wow, I give the CMC props. It looks like what it is saying may be coming true.

Right now i see no development in the near term as most of this convection is actually being inhanced by a ULL in the vicinity.
hi you think this is the wave the cmc was doing on its its first run . when it showed a ts on the east coast of so fla. and showed it will develope around 20 . so can the first run from the cmc be right from a couple of days ago ?
Posted By: stormybil at 7:16 PM GMT on July 15, 2007. (hide)
hi you think this is the wave the cmc was doing on its its first run . when it showed a ts on the east coast of so fla. and showed it will develope around 20 . so can the first run from the cmc be right from a couple of days ago ?

Yes i believe so but again the CMC has done very poor with Genesis so far this season and if you ask me the CMC is not that far ahead of the NAM when it comes to tropical cyclone development.
1032. Patrap
Yes..I see the spin now..The CMC is the correct solution

3
South Florida watch out!! If this develops.
1034. Patrap
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY



Northwest Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image
(From GOES-EAST Satellite)

Link
Updated da blog! Come on in and chat, guys!
1037. IKE
randommichael...you can't be serious?
1038. Patrap
WV false color..tropical basin

Link
If you live in South Florida, I would monitor this hourly for the next couple of days. This could develop quickly. If you can evacuate, start thinking about it now before official evacuations are announced.

right so far the timing is right on we all said it will show today , remember . so the first run we saw with the cmc a couple of days ago might really pan out .

there will not be much warning only like 2 days if it fully forms in the staights . stay tune
Michael...can't believe you said that.
1042. Alec
randommichael, stop scaring the kids!
i know it is cliche, but michael may be right-- "better safe than sorry!"
1044. IKE
RM....it's not even an invest yet!

1045. Patrap
Posted By: randommichael at 2:26 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.

If you live in South Florida, I would monitor this hourly for the next couple of days. This could develop quickly. If you can evacuate, start thinking about it now before official evacuations are announced.



Easy Lad..nothing to get the Folks in a tizzy over..Thar be nuthin for now...relax,..Have a Fresca


7




1046. IKE
That'll really get folks talking about this blog.

OMG!!!!!!!!

bil/mike;

Ok - vigilance is good - we all agree. Preparedness is good - we all agree.

Wishcasting like that is bad - there's no basis, given the climate.
for those who didnt see it i save the link from the cmc from a coulpe of days ago check it out it is the first run . Link

so you decide
It's a trough...no surface circulation.No chance of development.
1050. IKE
Posted By: Alec at 2:26 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.
randommichael, stop scaring the kids!


I'm not a kid...I'm 49.....you need to calm down yourself.
The CMC? It has absolutely nothing on it now... aside from a pretty impressive storm in the East Pacific that is.
1052. eye
this blog is the No Spin Zone(NSZ)!


Michael, change in to th e 850 vort
All the other models have been correct thus far as well!In calling for no development....
bil;

That run is 3 days old! Given the conditions, I'd say chill - have a beer - go feed the CMC...
1057. Alec
then I wasnt talking to you IKE....stormybil is a kid though and so are some others here.....Better go before I get a whappin!LOL
The CMC no longer has development in the Gulf, guys...

It does develop something east of the islands later in the week, though..
but we just sayin the timing of development of the maybe system is right now we have to see if it pans out and if it does it will be fast . Link

not to alarm anyone in so fla. but just posting what we we talking about when the cmc pop up a couple of days ago
well said, JP.

I'm certain that StormW will have something to say tomorrow...
1062. IKE
Posted By: Alec at 2:31 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.
then I wasnt talking to you IKE....stormybil is a kid though and so are some others here.....Better go before I get a whappin!LOL


How old are you?
1063. eye
again, change the CMC to 850 vort
The complacency level on this blog has reached unprescedented levels. Surprising considering TS Zeta was swirling around in the Atlantic a mere 18 months ago.
1066. eye
jp, you are 17 right?
Eye...that's not much of a system. I see what you are saying and I've been looking at the 850. Just looks like a vort lobe moving across the Gulf...nothing special.
Mike;

You're entitled to your opinion. However, you classified yourself as a newbie earlier in the week. Please leave the emphatic statements (the ones that sound like they're based on fact) to the veterans that are proven to be accurate (Like, Drak, Eye, StormW, Ike, Pat, etc...)
RM please go to Chicago and never return to this blog, once again you are just trying to start something.
1070. Alec
old enough that Im going to be a college senior in the fall IKE....
Michael, change in to th e 850 vort

A tropical cyclone is a closed SURFACE LOW... no closed surface low, no storm...
1073. IKE
There's some that come on here that think they know everything and that's fine..maybe they do...but their comebacks on people are over the edge.

Then, you've got a few that go to other blogs almost daily, to report on what folks are saying on this blog. To me...that's childish...."Ohhhh...you won't believe what so and so is talking about on the doctors blog"...WHO CARES!
Hi everybody....just a quickie...

Pat - the bad karma is gone! We've gotten a gully washer two days in a row! Woo-Hoo!

As for the doom and gloom wishcasting...vigilance is the answer, not calling for evacuations.
1075. eye
we dont need to be talking about beer in this blog, all these underage kids....
Then, you've got a few that go to other blogs almost daily, to report on what folks are saying on this blog. To me...that's childish...."Ohhhh...you won't believe what so and so is talking about on the doctors blog"...WHO CARES!


Ike,the people who know what they're talking about care because we find the wishcasting that goes on on this blog hilarious.....
Mike is getting annoying - I just put him on mute - let me know if he has anything useful to add to the conversation...
1080. IKE
Thanks for the compliment MrNiceville, but I'm no expert.
1082. Alec
kris is right....we care for those that may believe what those that dont have clue what they are talking about.....That is why people must be warned....better yet, go to the NHC and NWS to learn!

And I wasnt saying MOST or all were kids on here...But there are many on this site who are....just a heads up...
Michael,all I'm saying is,don't come to the blog,state you're a newbie trying to learn,then start saying it'd be prudent to evacuate.It will quickly give you a rep as a wishcaster,even if you don't deserve it.
llok guys we all sat on this blog for hours 2 days ago and disscuss the cmc s first run showing a ts in so fal

and the questions were flying around where and when the system will develope everyone here said it will for form on sun . so far thats 1 point then on where it will form you all said 20 west = 2 points . so far the place and timing is right on we just have to see if it developes more or the ull i pointed out last night will not let it . so we have to give the 2 pionts to the cmc so far thats all im saying and as patrap )always says you have to eat crow sometimes dont you ?
1085. eye
oh, I thought you were 17 or 18 you mentioned(i think) going to college to be a meteorologist...so when does saying you are 17 an insult based on given info?

you sure are sensitive, young man.....anyways, out and about for the day! Happy Blob Watching!
1086. Patrap
Our totals getting impressive ..Link
Whatever the CMC shows on vorticity, it is not even a depression; here is what you want to see, based on real storms (I always look at SLP to see if something is an actual low, since vorticity will show anything that has some kind of rotation in it, even if there is no surface feature associated with it, even the weakest depressions will usually show up as a closed low on the models):

Posted By: MrNiceville at 2:35 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.

Mike;

You're entitled to your opinion. However, you classified yourself as a newbie earlier in the week. Please leave the emphatic statements (the ones that sound like they're based on fact) to the veterans that are proven to be accurate (Like, Drak, Eye, StormW, Ike, Pat, etc...)


how long do u have too be on here too be considered a veteran?ibben on here a year and 2 months and a lurer since the start of theses blogs am i a vet.
1091. Patrap
Chicago..has good hot dogs.Ditkas place has a good Pork Chop too
1092. IKE
how long do u have too be on here too be considered a veteran?ibben on here a year and 2 months and a lurer since the start of theses blogs am i a vet.

Yup...you're a vet.
RM - hope you have a nice flight!

Everyone else....have a lovely day - going to tend to the roast.
1095. IKE
newbies are worth as much as vets...but, talking about evacuating is a bit premature....
Hey, randommichael. You are welcome on my blog anytime. It's going to be an educational blog on the tropics and it's always open for CIVIL conversations. :-)

Sorry ST;

I knew, the minute that I posted it, that I should have not named names. I've been here almost 2 years.

To anyone that I left out - my apologies - no insult intended!
1098. Alec
All I was getting at, is that people should have a heads up on those that just spout off TC scare tactics....It happens a lot on this blog....I recommend reading the individual blogs for good info(And the good Dr's entries themselves)......But we should all know that the official source should be the NHC and the NWS...

I just want to warn the lurkers and those that take most of this stuff to heart....
llok guys we all sat on this blog for hours 2 days ago and disscuss the cmc s first run showing a ts in so fal

and the questions were flying around where and when the system will develope everyone here said it will for form on sun


I don't think everybody said that it would develop; I myself said that even though it had been consistent (then), we would have to wait until other models picked up on it, if they ever did (and it was pretty far out at that point). That said, something still could possibly develop in the general area but we can't really say that something will develop.
Good idea RM take this summer to learn some things and not type such ridiculous statements, then come back next year and maybe with some learning you come back and type some sensible statements. Try to look at it as being sent down to the minors, with no chance of making the bigs till next year. Have fun in your condo in Chicago, or hurricane proof house.
that wave over the eastern carribean looks good classic v shape.any thoughts on it.
1102. bobw999
The blog is crazy today. But has there ever been a normal day?
ST - it's interesting, maybe, if it survives the shear - we might, possibly, potentially, perhaps get an invest out of it...
Just checking in. When will 97L develop? Anything on the radar screen?
1105. Patrap
Im a USMC Veteran..not a weather vet..

But I did stay in a FEMA trailer last night.

LOL
still could possibly develop in the general area but we can't really say that something will develop

the fact is there is somthing there and the cmc timing is right so far

inthe area we were discussing and place so all im trying to say is that the cmc gets 2 points . remeber the other models didnt show anything in this area 2 days ago
1107. IKE
Posted By: bobw999 at 2:55 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.
The blog is crazy today. But has there ever been a normal day?


No.
Man - they haven't reclaimed it yet, Pat? The way RM was talking, I figured Mr. Chertoff had already been down there to hook it to the back of his pickup to take it to south Fl...
is it dry air or shear? wasnt everything except dry air favorable for 96L
JoshNHurricanes says:
Yes, random, especially the west coast which is where i live in stpete. this year on the landfall probabilitys chart we are consider to be at the greatest risk and are called the bulls eye of the hurricane season. this year may finally be the year as many people say that our luck runs out aND WE GET HIT BY A MAJOR HURRICANE.

Randommicheal says:
Yup, I'm in Tampa...and I am hoping that our time isn't running out here too.

Now StormHype says:
Like I said yesterday, people always predicting doom and gloom this year in their own back yard... on gut feelings and imaginary blips in the models. Cut the fantasy, get out and enjoy life, and save your energy for when something real develops.
1112. eye
it was dry air that about choked 96 then the shear blew off its head
1113. bobw999
Like I said yesterday, people always predicting doom and gloom this year in their own back yard... on gut feelings

Must be a contagious disease.

Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the nation faces a heightened chance of an attack this summer. Link
Yeah, maybe the people with the gut feelings should lay off the Taco Bell and quit reading the National Enquirer.
LOL Bob...

You think that AQ has hijacked the CMC? We have discussed a possible drug addiction, but not subversive terrorist hacking...
Posted By: randommichael at 7:42 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

I'll just watch the NHC and TWC and forget about this place. There are too many people here who get their panties in a wad over everything.


Posted By: randommichael at 7:38 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

brazo, I am not starting to say anything. I know if I lived in S. Florida, I would go ahead and pack up and head to the airport. I'm not telling the masses to evacuate or anything.



You should always rely on the NHC for information, why would you want to leave South Florida? Thats crazy there is nothing even out there yet or watches or warnings, ok maybe some daytime t-storms but I rather be in a building then a plane in those, lol.
Wow... RandomMichael's name really suits him. He posts mostly random thoughts!
NO TROPICAL DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 14 DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE ODD DISORGANIZE WAVES FROM TIME TO TIME
NO TROPICAL DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 14 DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE ODD DISORGANIZE WAVES FROM TIME TO TIME

That is the opposite of wishcasting
no thats and actual fact that even the experts are calling no dev for the next week to 10 days
1121. eye
I LIKE IT WHEN PEOPLE TYPE IN ALL CAPS, MAKES THEIR STATEMENT SEEM SO IMPORTANT...I ADDED BOLD TO MINE
You guys are a trip...

By the way, eye. I was expecting the Central Atlantic wave to persist yesterday while you called for it to fizzle. Nice call. I underestimated the strength of the SAL in the area...much stronger than I thought. However, there is a broad circulation in the area! ;-)
nice and quiet now
that wave thats aproching pr today our local news said it would bring rain also to se fla soon too .
Here is something to watch:





TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
TODAY. THE ONCE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND
THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. OUTER BANDING
FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0/45
KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. IN ADDITION....A 1500 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED
SEEMINGLY RELIABLE 30 KT WINDS...BUT WAS INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT
ANYTHING STRONGER. BASED ON THESE DATA...SIX-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM COSME WITH 35 KT WINDS...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER
DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7. THE STEERING MECHANISM
AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING.
COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN CURVE MORE
TOWARD THE WEST ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS COSME
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.7N 128.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 128.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 130.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 132.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 134.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 148.0W 30 KT
1126. Buhdog
This place will be crazy trying to get info from this year.
:(
unintentional comedey....plenty of it.
So what happened to the wave that CMC was forecasting to go into the gulf??? It seems its gone now. Is there anything else out there???
Meanwhile.... from "under the wave" so to speak

St. Thomas
- formula for rain works again -

* From: "Jane Higgins"
* Date: Sun, 15 Jul 2007 15:20:03 -0400

After topping off the pool, transferring water from one cistern to the other, and filling the clothesline with clean white clothes....
the rain came! Early this morning several nice rain showers brought us about an inch in the (wine) rain bucket. We needed this
rain, and looks like plenty more is coming our way.
...
Right now the weather station on our deck says 29.26 barometer,
87 degrees, and 68% humidity. That 68% is LOW compared to the %'s in the last few weeks near 80% humidity.
...
Please continue to over prepare for storm season, just to make sure we don't have one....kind of like the clothesline mojo!
Link
CRS
1129. RL3AO
It looks like it won't hold together long enough to affect Hawaii. Good news.
Pat-

Looks like your Wx is trying to work our way. We could use the precip for our aquifers, but surface is pooling at this point. Hopefully, it'll die down to light showers by the time it gets here 2nite...
Hello all I am Robert aka lopaka!
I have to admit I never would have thought I see flaming on a weather blog..
Normally I just lurk and don't post here because I don't want to get into any flame wars on a weather blog!
When it comes to weather I am noob myself even tho the US Airforce forced me to take classes because I was a Flight Engineer.
I joined this site because I live in Hurricane Alley (South Florida).
The eye of Katrina and Wilma went right over my house and I am still repairing damages cause by Wilma $27,000 dollars worth and still counting..

Being a Admin myself I like to add my 2 cents worth about some comments made here by some of you..
I see it is very important to some of you how long you been a member here and for those members who haven't been here as long are consider noobs..
As a Admin I can tell you this is bad thing to do, because it segregates the whole board or blog in this matter..
Not only are you segregating the blog but you are setting the standards of us versus them mentality and this can cause problems with members especially those who have alot to share, but refrain from posting and would rather be lifetime lurkers to avoid such issues.
Yes I guess I am a noob too on this blog, but not in life.13 years of flying in the Airforce I have seen things that most people will never see in their lifetime.

I like to say thanks to all of you who are sharing your info and the great links I find myself digging and wanting to explore more..
I am still lost here about why as a lifetime Floridian I need to pack and leave..
Is there some Doomsday Cat 5 Hurricane heading our way I don't know about?
1132. eye
the fizzle had nothing to do the SAL and everything to do with the wave moved S into the ITCZ.
This is just a quick note on my own behalf.

I've noticed lately that very few tropical waves have formed during the season and most of them never lasted longer than a couple of days. Anything that did develop was subtropical and developed in the face of strong shear. I should note that the NHC only started naming subtropical storms as of recent.

Getting to the point, I believe this season bares many similarities to 04 and I find it to be quite fishy that the GFS would be forecasting the breakdown of the trough over the east coast around the same time that the 2004 season got underway with Alex. I'll tell you though, a couple days ago I was thinking this year was going to be another 06, but now, there seems to be cause for interest.

As for now, I find it unlikely that anything will develop until late July. Then, if the trough breaks down and that high builds in, shear would drop and this could be a tense season.
can someone post the modles thank you
Good points lopaka...

Nothing headed your way, perhaps, maybe, potentially

There's some lively debate going on about the last CMC run and the difference between 850mb vorticity and MSLP slices...

Most of us try to stay "out of the way" most of the time, but there have been some recent folks that have spouted off opinions in an alarmist manner without any supporting evidence, that's all...
1136. 0741
000
ABNT20 KNHC 152117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

Getting to the point, I believe this season bares many similarities to 04 and I find it to be quite fishy that the GFS would be forecasting the breakdown of the trough over the east coast around the same time that the 2004 season got underway with Alex. I'll tell you though, a couple days ago I was thinking this year was going to be another 06, but now, there seems to be cause for interest.

Does this mean we in South Florida should be looking towards the South West for storms now like Wilma?
Children play nice if you're gonna play seems to fit well today?

I just want to know WHO is watching what we say on this blog and talking about it? Would think it would be boring?
1139. 0741
we did not get wilma 2004
Lopaka,

I believe Wilma was pulled up by a trough. I was talking more on the lines of cape verdies from the east, although I didn't really specifally point that out.
1141. msphar
Interesting link, CRS
we did not get wilma 2004

Yes i know sorry for not being more detailed..
According to Jeff Masters we will see models like 2004 and 2005 so that is why I threw in Wilma..

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk


Ahh thanks Wishcaster I was typing while you posted your comments..
;=)
Tight recurving storms like Wilma are usually late or early season types. The time we're heading for is cape verde season. I would say the biggest threats will be coming from the east.
Cool stuff from the NHC indeed...

aa
Wishcaster I edit my post above yours..
Thanks for the info..
Best case for most would be that the trough either doesn't break down, or it only breaks down temporarily. Unfortunately, nobody knows how long the high will build in if it does.
Thanks for your thoughts Lopaka.
That's new. Were'd you find this 23?
1149. RL3AO
It is on the NHC homepage. Today is the first day.
can someone post the modles please.
can someone post the modles please.

Here you go!

Models
thank you
Best case for most would be that the trough either doesn't break down

Even WITH the trough, I don't see how we can avoid any landfalls... anything that develops south of 20N will not recurve... the trough is not really that deep or strong.

Michael,

You're very right. I failed to mention that there is very little chance of nothing hitting any land this season. What I was trying to get at was that as well as the trough kicking up a lot of shear and dry air, it was also creating sort of a barrier over the gulf coast states from STRONG hurricanes. I believe that if that trough is replaced by a high, more people will be fair game for hurricanes.
What I'm saying is, what we have now seems to be the better of two evils.
Why the flare up of convection over the Islands?
1157. Drakoen
Sporteguy03,

STRONGLY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N55W TO NEAR TRINIDAD WAS
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CLEARLY SHOW A WINDSHIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THE WAVE IS COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120-180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PUERTO RICO BY 24 HOURS.

Hey, gang! Are we watching any blobs? Area around the islands? Or the low over Columbia?

...looks like there is still SAL hanging around and shear.

...any concerns? What's happening with the MJO?
Probably just the upper-level low coming down and enhancing convection? There was a ULL spinning north of that area last night, or somewhere around there anyway.
care to translate, Drak???

In my mind - that says that the wave may merge with the ULL and bring rain to PR?
1161. Drakoen
I don't expect anything to develop soon with the high upper level winds in the area. Also there is a concentration of SAL east of 60W. Any development would occur in the Climatologically favored areas.

1162. Drakoen
MrNiceVille, An upper level trough is enhancing the convection associated with the tropical wave along 20N 55w. the enhancement is causing the outflow of the convection.
So the ULT is providing a favorable situation for the wave to fire off tstorms and that's it, right? Sorry - slight mis-read on the NWS statement - thought it said ULL, not ULT...
1164. RL3AO
Cosme looks pretty good. Looks like a third system trying to develop in the EPac.
When it comes to hurricanes, these scientists say, coastal development not warming oceans should perhaps be policymakers' biggest concern.

Hello Drak ( and everyone else )

This is my first visit to the blog today. I see from the quikscat pass this morning that there was a clearly defined low near 8N and 37W

There is turning with the ATL wave and convection is trying to refire. It may not be done yet
can you post it
1168. Drakoen
yea kman it appears that i was right about the low in the area. Even steve lyons mentioned it this morning.
here it is. Some of the barbs are rain contaminated but there is no question that winds are from all points

See it, too! Good eye, Kman!
good to see you too mlc !. It looks much better when you go to the link itself. Some of the definition is lost when you post the image
1172. Drakoen
Posted By: MrNiceville at 10:44 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

So the ULT is providing a favorable situation for the wave to fire off tstorms and that's it, right? Sorry - slight mis-read on the NWS statement - thought it said ULL, not ULT...


Right
Yeah, it looks like we're prolly going to have plenty to watch!
1174. Drakoen
I don't expect development with this wave as the SAL is too strong. The convection appears limited to the ITCZ.
Hey, Drakoen, how's it going? What's the latest on MJO?
I just increased the size a bit and it is clearer now. There is SAL around but hasn't it been around for decades when other systems were forming in July ?
1177. Drakoen
I am good.

MJO:

Will BB later. I want to see the next QS pass which will be fairly soon. Just looked at the latest sat image and convection has increased some more.
1179. Drakoen
later Kman.
Link

...don't see a great deal of SAL near 35w.
Posted By: kmanislander at 10:46 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.
Hello Drak ( and everyone else )

This is my first visit to the blog today. I see from the quikscat pass this morning that there was a clearly defined low near 8N and 37W

There is turning with the ATL wave and convection is trying to refire. It may not be done yet


At the risk of mentioning the bad word (cmc) that is where whatever the cmc is predicting to come over the N edge of Cuba in 6 days.
Link
See that Groundman(X):)...may just be 97 soon?

...ooooops. Isn't that wishcasting? lol
1183. Drakoen
groundman the CMC increase the vorticity of the wave, not necessarily developing it. Perhaps showing a strong tropical wave. The CMC is not considered a reliable model.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR


WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC FOR THURSDAY AND MONDAY ARE STILL MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST
AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS CLASSIFYING THE NEXT WAVE AS ONE
WITH A VERY LARGE AMPLITUDE.
THE GFS CONTINUES ALSO TO BRING ONE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AFRICA
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

The next wave still over Africa is a 1004mb.
1185. Drakoen
MLC look at the SAL graphic i posted. It shows SAL to the west of the system.
1186. eye
it looks like a big hunk of SAL will break off in the next few days, hopefully it will be replaced by more SAL...we dont want hurricanes to form.
There is SAL around but hasn't it been around for decades when other systems were forming in July ?

Very true. That is one of the reasons Alberto didn't develop in 1994 immediately from the precursor wave. Dry air (probably SAL) and shear. It was almost July then.

Frances in 2004 developed in the face of 20-30% relative humidity; quite low. It rapidly intensified to a Category 4 in that. No reason to discount everything. I don't expect development, though.
1188. eye
CMC does show a low coming up from around 8N in his 850 vort....but it is not reliable and is still on crack(recovering crack addict)

it also shows it going through the Carribean and it will be sheared to death
it looks like a big hunk of SAL will break off in the next few days, hopefully it will be replaced by more SAL...we dont want hurricanes to form.

I want a storm to study... I don't want to go through a 1977 where we don't get another storm until September almost. I don't want them to hit land, but I would like some to look at on satellite. SAL stinks.
1190. Drakoen
hmm even the UKMET shows the low in the CATL.
Link
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:12 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.
..............................The CMC is not considered a reliable model.


That's why I said it was a bad word (cmc). Just sharing what I saw.
Drak, you think this will develop? I'm still leaning towards no. One way or another, whether or not we want it to, Chantal is going to form eventually, and other storms too. And eventually, I'm sure a major hurricane will develop. I hope it stays out at sea, though. I only like watching radar and satellite of hurricanes.
1194. Drakoen
i know groundman. Its just the CMC has been predicting cyclogenesis over the past few weeks. Which has yet to have happened.
Good evening everyone.
Drak, that looks like what you would see under a microscope when a doc is figuring out sperm count....

..... Was that necessary?
Good evening, FLfishyweather.
1198. Drakoen
The system is not going to develop. The convection remains limited to the ITCZ. SAL is analyzed to the west of the system. Upper level winds are in the marginal category for development. The low pressure area remains quite broad.
1199. eye
ITCZ needs to move N, if the waves follow it, they will go poof and slam into SA.
really
ITCZ needs to move N, if the waves follow it, they will go poof and slam into SA.

That will happen with time (the ITCZ moving more north).
we still have to give the cmc some credit 2 days it showed a new system by pr that will form today and it ie ( the wave ) has so far lets hope the ts prediction by the cmc doesnt happen next s

the timing a plus

the area is right on so far
1203. Drakoen
part of the ITCZ is above 10N the other part dips down below that. Whatever is to the north of that area is SAL.
1204. eye
it takes a dive to the S....big time, any circulation that comes of africa will have a tough time if they have to dive...like a roller coaster.
1205. eye
it does look like a big hunk of SAL will break off and head to the Carribean, not sure if there will be new SAL to take its place.
1206. Drakoen
Posted By: stormybil at 11:27 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

we still have to give the cmc some credit 2 days it showed a new system by pr that will form today and it ie ( the wave ) has so far lets hope the ts prediction by the cmc doesnt happen next


The cmc has been developing something with blobs in the Caribbean that have been sheared to death or withered away by SAL.
Consistency is only good if it is about the same system.
1207. Drakoen
1208. eye
i still dont see the CMC being right, the shear is crazy, the wave is getting its head blown off like all the other waves...it is flaring up(interaction with the trough or whatnot) but eventually will die down to nothing....
1209. eye
hmmm, looks like some fresh SAL, not that much though coming down.
Drakoen, yes, see the SAL; but, imvho, it's not near as profound as when 96 was trying to form.
1211. Drakoen
SAL/Dry Air is shown in most of the Caribbean
1212. eye
OT, hurricanecity.com is going to go offline before too much longer, it was one of the first websites for hurricanes...it has a good MB and lots of info...hackers, server problems, real life, caused the admin to come to this decision. The MB will still be up, but if anyone goes to that site, bookmark the MB.
1213. eye
the last breakoff of SAL went through the Carribean last week, it is much weaker though now, has kinda disbursed...but if that huge glob(not to be mistaken for blob) of SAL breaks off, it will become even dryer next week.
1214. Drakoen
WXTLIST WMO=AXNT20
AXNT20 KNHC 151105 2007196 1105
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND
36W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO AND/OR ENHANCED
BY THE 32W/33W TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N55W
13N60W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N53W 15N60W TO 11N64W. SHOWERS IN VENEZUELA IN AN AREA
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W HAVE BEEN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF
77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF
22N WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
SAME AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM
GUATEMALA ALREADY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM NICARAGUA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
1215. Drakoen
the upper level trough may have begun its northward movement.
Eye,
Although "hurricane city is not one of my bookmarks. It angers me to no end that "hackers'have contributed to this sights demise... I have no love for these "compuweenies" that get a cheap thrill from harming others hard work.. I hope a squad of psychotic ninjas with sledge hammers can find these turds, and give them the going over they deserve
SAL=Southern Atlantic?? Please define??

Thanks

Larry
SAL=Southern Atlantic

means the dust
SAL= SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Weatherfan PR

Thank you
SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO RADAR:Link
SAL= Saharan Air Layer.

Dusty, dry air from Africa ascends to upper levels of the atmosphere and moves west over the Atlantic, inhibiting tropical development in its presence. Usually the SAL is weak and doesn't make a huge difference, but this year, the SAL looks very strong.
Nothing really important with this wave where i live. I live hereLink

just to the southeast of the circled plus symbol.
1224. Drakoen
Weatherpr looks like that area of convection to the north of you will miss but the convection to the Southeast should come your way.
1225. Melagoo
Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.


LOL! We will have to send them all to Florida or the Gulf coast for some refresher courses.

:c)
yes Drakoen but the heaviest storms dissipate when their comes inland.
1227. Drakoen
blog having problems updating!!!
1229. Drakoen
it is?
1231. RL3AO
The CMC wants to bring a tropical system into SoCal.
1232. Drakoen
Hey StormW. How are you?
Posted By: RL3AO at 5:52 PM PDT on July 15, 2007.

The CMC wants to bring a tropical system into SoCal.


LOL
1234. Drakoen
The CMC...(cyclogenesis machine)
CMC is forcasting a TS for CA??? heh heh heh and LOL on the CMC
1237. Drakoen
yea Taz it also increases the vorticity with the wave around 10N 35W...lol
1238. Drakoen
i am pretty good StormW just hanging in their untill the season really starts to get going.
1239. RL3AO
It is sending it that way. It doesn't go out far enough to see where exactly it goes.
ok if the CMC is forcasting a TS for ca where dos it make land fall then???
Hi Stormw

Good to have you back. I just took a look at your synopsis and also at the latest QS . There is a very broad low between 8 to 10 N and near 38 W based on what I see in the pass. However, the convection is limited and the system is about 2 degrees too far S to develop at this time IMO.

Lets see what happens overnight
LOL on the CMC
1243. Drakoen
Kman yea very broad low. I don't know why the convection is so limited seeing as though there is little to no SAL to the north of the system. Maybe the shear is doing it.


Hey StormW - welcome back!

We should have a "name the bug in the CMC software" contest. The current leading causes for the hilarious output range from the model being addicted to crack to Al-Qaeda hacking it and sabotaging it to sew fear and unrest in south FL...
1245. RL3AO
And it was heading NNW.

1
1246. Drakoen
the UKMET actually picked up on the low, although doesn't do much with it.
Shear is only about 10 knots over it right now. I suppose the answer is that sometimes, even with near perfect conditions, some systems just do not get going. Given that this is mid July,the ATL has been pretty dry for a while and it is far S ( near 8) there is no compelling reason for it to organise. In fact, climatology points in the opposite direction.

I believe this will be a typical year with the action starting in Aug, and perhaps mid August at that.
1250. Drakoen
my italics button work fine...
1253. Drakoen
lol StormW. the CMC has taken over from the GFS. GFS being conservative now.
1254. bobw999
Interesting........

3.5 / 996.3mb/ 55.0kt

Bob

Is that for the Pacific system ?
1256. bobw999
Yup. Cosme
1257. Drakoen
heres Comse and that other depression
1259. Drakoen
wederwatcher55 please don't post false statements, there are people who lurk this site for information and don't know you are kidding.
ok sorry
Posted By: StormW at 1:10 AM GMT on July 16, 2007.
Anybody else having trouble with the italics button?


If you either hit select all instead of running mouse over if you highlight broad sections or if you just refresh page it usually helps, I'm using foxfire and have been having problems with it about once a day forever.
osted By: StormW at 1:29 AM GMT on July 16, 2007.
Here's food for thought...about TAZ' post on that system the CMC brings up toward S.Cal.

We'll have to see if something does develop over there, and if so...how strong it gets...if something does become of it, and gets strong enough to be steered by the upper levels, guess which way the steering current is going about the same time the CMC brings that system near S. Cal?


Also was bringing or is bringing what I took to be the remains of Man-yi into the Pacific NW?
Hey, StormW, glad you're back. Just checked your blog and it does look like we might have something to watch.

Glad you're back with us!!!
1266. Patrap
6.6 mag Quake in Japan...Tsunami warning..precautionary
1268. Patrap
Quake link......Link
1269. Drakoen
MLC i never said we had something to watch lol.StormW post was from this morning when the system looked better. Heres what i said.

Posted By: Drakoen at 11:26 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

The system is not going to develop. The convection remains limited to the ITCZ. SAL is analyzed to the west of the system. Upper level winds are in the marginal category for development. The low pressure area remains quite broad.
1270. Patrap


A powerful earthquake shook northwestern Pacific on Saturday at around 1:30 p.m. (0430 GMT), leading to tidal changes at Japan's northeast coast. A wave of 40 centimeters was observed at Ogasawara chain of islands.

At 4:56 p.m. (0756 GMT), a wave of some 40 centimeters was observed at Chichi island of the Ogasawara chain of islands in the Pacific, the NHK public television said. The subtropical island chain is around 1,000 Kilometers south of metropolitan Tokyo.

Tidal changes up to 20 centimeters were also observed at Nemuro and several other places along the coast of Japan's northern island of Hokkaido from 3:28 p.m. (0628 GMT) to 4:33 p.m. (0733 GMT). There were no immediate reports of casualty or damages.

The quake, which measured a magnitude of 8.3 degrees on the Richter scale, occurred at around 1:24 p.m. (0424 GMT). Its epicenter was 30 kilometers underground at 46.1 degrees northern latitude and 154.2 degrees eastern longitude, the agency said.

Under the Japanese seismic classification system, which measures the intensity of tremors on the Earth surface, the quake measured 3 degrees on some parts of Hokkaido including Kushiro, Hakodate and Nemuro, as well as at some places of Amori, Iwate and Miyagi prefectures.

According to a renewed tsunami warning issued at 3:28 p.m. (0628 GMT), waves as high as two meters could hit the northeastern coast of Japan's northern island of Hokkaido later in the day. Besides, a wave of around 50 centimeters will likely hit a large part of Japan's Pacific coastal areas from central Hokkaido to Wakayama prefecture in western Japan.

An evacuation advisory has been issued in 22 municipalities around the region, targeting a total of some 37,000 households, Kyodo News said. The Japanese government has set up a liaison office at the prime minister's office in Tokyo following the tsunami warning. Japan's coastal security authority has also issued sailing warnings.
...already corrected, Drakoen! LOL
1273. Drakoen
lol StormW. Even later than i thought. We will see what happens overnight.
1274. Patrap
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY



Northwest Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image
(From GOES-EAST Satellite)Link
1275. Drakoen
this picture should tell you everything about the wave.
good evening, everyone. Just back in from a day out !

Whats up in the Atlantic ? Our wave seems to have lost it punch ??
Storm you got mail
1278. Drakoen
Nothing in the Atlantic. Just a tropical wave with a broad area of low pressure. Convection is limited to the ITCZ even though SAL is not north of the system.
Drakoen answered me 1 min. before I asked the question ! Love this site......
1280. Drakoen
LOL pottery.
Hey yall, Cosme has strengthend to 1000 mb & 45kt..... But CIMSS has it at 995 mb 57knts.
Earthquake in Japan?: While I was reading the link on that, my wife came into the room and asked if I felt an earthquake 5 min ago. I must say I did not, which is strange, because I usualy do. I'll have to await independent confirmation........
1283. RL3AO
Cosme looks really good. I'm thinking the NHC will bump it up to 45kts at the next update.
Short on storm coverage

Florida schools, governments can't count on FEMA

Eli Lehrer
Special to the Orlando, Florida Sentinel
July 15, 2007

So long as hurricanes continue to sweep through Florida's landscape, Floridians will have to find ways to repair the damage. As the Sentinel showed in a recent article, however, many Florida school districts expect that someone else will pay the cleanup bills.

The Orange County School District, for example, carries only $20 million in insurance to protect nearly $5 billion worth of buildings. Other Central Florida school districts don't do much better.

The problem, in fact, extends far beyond schools: roads, bridges, airports and other vital infrastructure all remain either uninsured or enormously underinsured. School districts and other government entities believe that the federal government, via the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), will pick up the bills for rebuilding.

They're probably wrong. While FEMA has provided plenty of grants and loans to repair these public works in the past, the gravy train has come to an end. Without much notice, the Bush administration gutted FEMA in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The agency has lost more than a third of its staff, most of its ongoing programs, and nearly all of its clout in Washington.

The rest of the story
1286. Drakoen
interesting but its still nothing.
1287. RL3AO
I think Cosme will get stronger than the NHC expects. Maybe it can get to 60kts.
that wave near pr looks ok, but shear is really high (30kts)so after it gets pass the shear, does anyone here think this could possibly do something?
Fixed the link above -
Storm W, if they did that, it would save us dial-uppers a lot of time. Good idea.
ok thanks stormW, i saw some people talking about that the ULL is starting to move out to the north, do you know if this is true or not?
What do you all think of the new Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook on the NHC website?

I thought it was funny that the graphical outlook has a big text box in the middle.

Their survey asked, in question 1:
1. On a scale of 0 to 10 (10 highest), rate technical quality of this product/service (e.g., forecast accuracy, timeliness, problems with display).

If I knew if it was accurate or not without waiting 48 hours, I'll bet I could get a job there. LOL
Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook on the NHC website.


...looks good, and apparently puts the pics now with the post! I'm good with it. Quick referencing at least.
ok great, thanks again stormW, i really hope it stays there and that the cmc is not right on this one, S.FL does not need anymore storms for a while
1300. JLPR
now the cmc develops a storm passing over PR this model is crazy it develops storms everywere
do you have the link to that JLPR
n/m i have it
1303. JLPR
Storm W, if they did that, it would save us dial-uppers a lot of time. Good idea.
JLPR:

No congruency in the MSLP part of the model. If there's no low at the surface, the vorticity can do whatever it wants. Drakoen, am I off my rocker here?
Earthquake confirmed. 4.4 mag, west of Trinidad, near Caracas. Felt here in Trinidad, by people on floors above ground.
CMC 850 has development north of Puerto Rico
next week? Not something to lose sleep over
but anything before August would probably
start there or W. Carrib/S.W Gulf. Activity
in the East Pac. makes this less likely
for now.
1308. JLPR
hey yeah thats true MrNiceville I forgot to compare it to the mslp part
I'm out. Goodnight all.
1310. DDR
hey pottery,how are you.4.4 ? how long was it ,i'd say about 10 sec?
Mr. Niceville; hows my favorite part of
Florida?
Anyone know if there is anything that may develop??? I dont see anything on any models
July is almost always like watching paint
dry.
Nothing really. A few of us are watching the ULL over the islands, and a broad low around 38w, 8n; but nothing is likely to develop, according to consensus it seems.
It looked like there would have been something a few days ago but it just seems like its just dead out there, which is good since us in New Orleans are still trying to get it together.
We'll see I'm looking forward to July 20th thats when StormKat said something will be out there, he comes back from fishing on July 21st he might be surprised that nothing developed, lol.
The pacific looks like its really getting warmed up now
Understand, Nola. Sure hope nothing comes your way!!! To MS, or anywhere really!!! But especially NO and the MS coast.
So whats up with the atlantic wave? It looks to be holding its own out there.
1321. Jedkins
Posted By: stormybil at 7:24 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

If you live in South Florida, I would monitor this hourly for the next couple of days. This could develop quickly. If you can evacuate, start thinking about it now before official evacuations are announced.

right so far the timing is right on we all said it will show today , remember . so the first run we saw with the cmc a couple of days ago might really pan out .

there will not be much warning only like 2 days if it fully forms in the staights . stay tune





This is what scares me, statements like this.


Is there any mental sanity in this statement? Unfortunately no...

Stop giving anbody who still think we've evolved from apes excuses like this...
1322. Jedkins
a lot of people read these that never post, irrationalism isn't cool...
Sorry Ivansrvivr - was doing my nightly "edumacational" reading on toolsets...

It's muggy and warm. Showers most afternoons, which is welcome after the dry Spring that we had...

Other than that - same ol'. Figured you were from around here with that monicker - did u relocate somewhere else?
I hope they've done enough to fix those
levees in New Orleans. Of all the areas
hit in 04/05, the folks in New Orleans
need one more year of rebuilding time.
They also need a large scale land
renourishment project for the coastal
wetlands. New Orleans should be the
world example for Coastal Engineering/
Flood control management. With all the
money wasted going through layers of FEMA
I hope some of it gets put to use or else
the next landfalling tropical system will
flood New Orleans again. The taxpayers of
New Orleans deserve to have their City and
area Ecosystem preserved (better than S.FL
water management district handles the
Eveglades).
atlantic very quiet yet another day and possibly for the next week to ten days as well hmmm interesting would'nt be great if no storms formed at all this year that will truly be very stange and has that ever happen before does anybody know
I'm in S. Florida now. Unfortunately, Im south
of the southern Mason/Dixon line(West Palm Bch)
I liked Pensacola alot, unfortunately it became
too expensive/too hard to find decent housing.
When the opprtunity arises I intend to return
to the panhandle. Folks up there are so much
nicer(usually).
atlantic very quiet yet another day and possibly for the next week to ten days as well hmmm interesting would'nt be great if no storms formed at all this year that will truly be very stange and has that ever happen before does anybody know

1914 had only 1 storm, but data is unreliable back then, so there were probably undetected ones that formed at sea.

There's no way 2007 will not have another storm. A lack of a C storm and it's July 15 should not put that mentality in our heads. No way that will happen for a long long time, if ever.
"We did evolve from apes. George Bush proves it. "
Here comes the political crap again.
The atlantic is quiet and boring..lol..zzzz...well, which is good.

There seems to be a lot of shear and many other factors that would block any development...for the next few weeks.

I don't think we will have 97L this July until, as said, the shear, dry-air and dust doesn't kill any waves off of Africa or in the central atlantic. Well, if anything WERE to form, I'd give the best chance from a disturbance in the caribbean or a stalled front off of the East Coast.

Other than that...I don't expect Chantal until maybe mid-August.

Just wanted to point out that the few people here saying 2-3 tropical storms may form this July, now that seems very, very unlikely. Though, of course, anything is possible... as these last weeks have panned out and what seems like will happen, no td's or ts's seems very reasonable. Simply too much shear and SAL...

Though I am not saying this season will be unactive... if we have about 13 storms, this season is still above average.

And, (including we have around 13 storms) this season is still gonna be horrible in many ways...there are very bad steering currents and shear might lighten up later in the season...so, the storms that actually form may threaten the U.S....and remember that it only takes one in a very populated area to make the record books.

Not to mention, 2004, a horrific season, especially for Florida, did not start until early August...not saying this'll be like 2004 but it's too early to rule out this season, especially after thinking about '04.
"There seems to be a lot of shear and many other factors that would block any development...for the next few weeks"


Typical July pattern. 2004 started the same
way. Charlie was in 2nd week of August, then
it a constant barrage. Now everyone expects
2005 every year.
What are the chances of only tropical storms forming and no hurricanes for rest of season?
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 4:24 AM GMT on July 16, 2007.

"There seems to be a lot of shear and many other factors that would block any development...for the next few weeks"


Typical July pattern. 2004 started the same
way. Charlie was in 2nd week of August, then
it a constant barrage. Now everyone expects
2005 every year.


If you look back, I said that there are too many factors that won't allow development, I wouldn't say that if I thought this is like 2005. And this pattern is normal for July...and as in 2004 they didnt get Alex until August, which I mentioned in the end of my comment.

This is like 2007, not 2005...lol
nice naked swirl in mid atlantic off east coast thats about it
Ivansvrivr:

Sorry to hear about your move. We've been lucky here - being on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay, it takes an enormous amount of energy to get water up to us (we're 55 feet above msl). All we get is wind and rain. Ivan was a turning point for me - I stayed and listened to my roof complain that it wanted to learn how to fly from about 10PM until about 5AM. Not something I wish to go through again, anytime soon.

Here's hoping that you get to return. Prices are dropping (relatively speaking) daily...

1339. TayTay
Last year was the same. Everyone was wondering when the season would start. We've had two early forming "storms" and some impressive waves. I think this season might be a busy one. Watch out when Sept. and Oct. hit.
Sporte - who knows?

If I were a bettin' man - I'd say about the same as me pulling a full house in a $10K hand...

(only done it once, but it did happen!)
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 9:48 PM PDT on July 15, 2007.

What are the chances of only tropical storms forming and no hurricanes for rest of season?


0%


we will see lots of hurricanes this year by late july it sould start picking up some
Taz, CMC has a storm heading to southern CA...will it develop and make landfall around San Diego, or maybe further north?

How many storms have hit CA (not Baha) before like that?
CMC is gone crazy
lol..CMC was crazy last year as well.
morning whats the blob in the gulf . moving se at this time can it form in that area . ? just caught my eyes . around 26n 85 west movement se at 2 am est thanks

also watching 20 north by cuba its gettin close to 126 hour mark that the first cmc started to developed a system in that area just for fun to see if it happens

too much high westerly winds in the atl, for anything to devlope at this time .there

1346. RL3AO
How many storms have hit CA (not Baha) before like that?

1 weak tropical storm made landfall in California in 1939 and after Hurricane Nora made landfall in Baja California, it entered California as a tropical storm. That is it.
RL, thanks...whoa, sure seems there would be more.
1348. H2PV
Here's the one to watch!

http://ecocity.us/1/NextMajor.jpg
The Next Major

Link
1349. redavni
You guys should come up with a naming scheme for the blobs to watch, so us lurkers can follow who is talking about which blob.
1350. RL3AO
Don't tell me someone is watching an area of thunderstorms IN CENTRAL AFRICA!
1351. H2PV
Posted By: RL3AO at 7:27 AM GMT on July 16, 2007.
Don't tell me someone is watching an area of thunderstorms IN CENTRAL AFRICA!


85% of all major hurricanes are made in Africa. They are already made before they hit water.

http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070508/full/070508-12.html

Lightning spurs hurricanes
Link shows storms in Africa can cause havoc in the United States.

Harvey Leifert

Heavy lightning in eastern Africa apparently perturbs the westward
trade winds across the African continent.
Getty
What creates an Atlantic hurricane? The most devastating ones are
spurred by intense thunderstorms in the Ethiopian highlands, according
to new research.

The link between lightning strikes and hurricane formation should give
researchers a heads-up about when a nasty hurricane might form, weeks
before it could make landfall in the United States, says Colin Price
of Tel Aviv University in Israel. Today, scientists apply various
models to predict storm tracks and strength, but only once they form
over the Atlantic Ocean. "This is what is unique about our work,"
Price says. "We look at the initial stages of these devastating storms
before they have become hurricanes."

Price and his colleagues at Israel's Open University studied the 2005
and 2006 hurricane seasons, which were markedly different from each
other. In 2005 there were a record 28 named storms, including the
catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, while 2006 brought only 10 named
storms - a 64% reduction. Summertime lightning activity in eastern
Africa, mainly in the Ethiopian highlands, was also quite different in
each of the years, the researchers found, with 23% less activity in
2006 over 2005.

The two phenomena are linked, says Price, an atmospheric scientist who
has long studied lightning.

Wind interrupted

Heavy lightning in eastern Africa apparently perturbs the westward
trade winds across the African continent, Price writes in Geophysical
Research Letters1. He likens the process to the effect of boulders in
a stream: "The boulder produces undulations and turbulence downstream,
and the bigger the boulder, the larger the turbulence. Over Africa,
thunderstorms act as our boulders."

So the larger the thunderstorm, the greater the atmospheric
turbulence, says Price. This turbulence, in turn, creates low-pressure
areas known as African easterly waves (AEW). About half of these
systems are known to generate tropical storms as they head westwards
over the Atlantic. Various factors, including sea surface temperature,
dust and wind shear above the Atlantic, then determine whether those
storms strengthen into hurricanes.

The team mined data about lightning strikes from the World Wide
Lightning Location Network, whose ground stations monitor the very low-
frequency electromagnetic signals that lightning emits. They found
that all periods of intense lightning in eastern Africa monitored in
both 2005 and 2006 were followed by an AEW low-pressure area.

Striking impact

Only a fraction of these AEWs go on to make hurricanes or cause damage
in the United States. But of the big hurricanes that do form, the vast
majority seem to have been born of lightning.

At least 85% of intense hurricanes and two-thirds of all Atlantic
hurricanes in the study developed from AEWs that formed after
thunderstorms in eastern Africa, the researchers found.

Price suggests that forecasters and emergency response personnel keep
an eye on major thunderstorms in eastern Africa during the upcoming
hurricane season, in order to gauge its likely severity.

Earle Williams, a lightning expert at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in Cambridge, who was not involved in the study, says the
study highlights the benefits of having global lightning data
available on a continuous basis.

1352. RL3AO
ok
1353. H2PV
Ironically dust can suppress cyclone genesis, but on the other hand, dust causes cyclone genesis. There are many pieces to the puzzle -- the prize of figuring it all out is three week advance notice of when a major hurricane is forming. The booby prize for not paying attention is a FEMA trailer. In nature, stupidity is a capital crime punished by execution.

Link

Date: March 14, 2007

NASA Peers Deep Inside Hurricanes

Determined to understand why some storms grow into hurricanes while others fizzle, NASA scientists recently looked deep into thunderstorms off the African coast using satellites and airplanes.

dust
Dust associated with the Saharan Air Layer, taken from a NOAA aircraft northeast of Barbados in September 2006. Cumulus clouds can be seen poking through the tops of the dust layer, which is seen as a milky white haze. (Credit: Image courtesy of NASA)

During July and August 2006, a team of international scientists, including NASA researchers, journeyed to the west coast of Africa. Their mission was to better understand why some clusters of thunderstorms that drift off the African coast, known as easterly waves, develop into furious hurricanes, while others simply fade away within hours.

A major component of the campaign, called the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), was to study the Saharan Air Layer. The layer is a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert and influences the development of tropical cyclones, the general name given to tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. Budding hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic off the African coast often rapidly deteriorate when they interact with this stable air mass and its strong winds.

This mission was unique because it incorporated NASA's state-of-the-art technology in space and in the air. With sophisticated satellite data and aircraft, scientists are better able to examine the "tug-of-war" between forces favorable for hurricane development -- warm sea surface temperatures and rotating clusters of strong thunderstorms -- and forces that suppress hurricanes such as dust particles and changing wind speed and direction at high altitudes.

"Most late-season Atlantic basin hurricanes develop from African easterly waves, so improving our knowledge of these hurricane seedlings is critical," said Ramesh Kakar, program manager for NAMMA at NASA headquarters. "Several studies have shown that the Saharan Air Layer suppresses hurricane development, but the exact mechanisms are very unclear, and it remains a wild card in the list of ingredients necessary for hurricane formation."

NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on the Terra and Aqua satellites identified the location, size, and intensity of dust plumes throughout the mission. Using other satellites, scientists could then determine any possible connection between dust outbreaks and changes in tropical easterly waves. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, for instance, provided information on rainfall and thunderclouds, while the QuikSCAT satellite identified how low-level winds were rotating, both critical elements in hurricane formation.

NASA scientists also used a satellite product designed specifically to assess the strength of the Saharan Air Layer that uses imagery from Meteosat, a European satellite. Well-developed regions of the Saharan Air Layer were easily identified by measuring tiny dust particles and atmospheric water vapor content. Multiple images taken over time tracked dust movement and evolution across the Atlantic.After analyzing satellite data, researchers flew aircraft into specific, targeted areas to probe storm clouds over a very short time and small area to learn how microscopic dust particles, called aerosols, interact with cloud droplets contained in thunderstorms. Aerosols potentially influence rainfall and the overall structure and future strength of a developing tropical cyclone. The extreme dry air, warm temperatures, and wind shear within these elevated dust layers may also weaken fledgling tropical cyclones.

Scientists flew a total of 13 aircraft missions inside seven storm systems. NASA's DC-8 research aircraft contained numerous instruments to take measurements deep inside clouds, the environment of thunderstorms, and the Saharan Air Layer. Researchers also took advantage of several aircraft probes and especially dropsondes, a sensor attached to a parachute that is dropped into storm clouds. It typically collects data on wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, and pressure that are relayed to a computer in the airplane.

Aircraft sensors and laser devices called lidars measured water vapor content and cloud, dust and precipitation particle sizes, shapes, and types. Revolutionary radar on the aircraft was also used to gather better details on the intensity of rainfall and where exactly it was falling.

One special sensor aboard the DC-8, called the High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer, provided a 3-D distribution of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere. The sensor is ideal for hurricane studies since it can look through thick clouds and probe into the interior of the storms. It has also led to the development of a new microwave sounder for geostationary satellites, GeoSTAR, which will make it possible to monitor the interior of hurricanes continuously without having to wait for a satellite to pass overhead.

Throughout the field mission, a Web-based real time mission monitor, developed by Marshall Space Flight Center, allowed scientists to track the progress of the experiment from anywhere on the globe using a standard internet connection.

"Through the use of sophisticated technology, NAMMA provided an excellent opportunity to advance our understanding of tropical cyclones, as we gathered data on the critical elements at both the very small and large scales, from microscopic dust to air currents spanning hundreds of miles," said Jeff Halverson, one of four NAMMA mission scientists. "Much of the data gathered is still being analyzed, but the preliminary findings are very promising."

As researchers study the data collected, and input them into computer models, they will test hypotheses surrounding tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. NASA scientists will also compare NAMMA findings to data from previous missions that took place in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The results should help determine the role of factors universal to hurricane formation and those uniquely dependent on location, such as the Saharan Air Layer in the eastern Atlantic and tall mountains in Central America. Ultimately, research findings will improve the group of computer models that help meteorologists forecast hurricane strength and intensity.

Other scientists will be using NAMMA data for a variety of related research goals, including advancing the understanding of precipitation and cloud microphysics, examining the link between tropical cyclone development and West Africa rainfall, and assessing the accuracy of new satellites.

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.
1354. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

Was watching the local news this morning, met said next area of thunderstorms coming off the africa coast has potential due to the latitude its coming off africa..things should start to get interesting now
Living on an Island on the North Carolina coast, causes one to watch the weather. I thank all of you who take the time to explain to those of us who are "Newbies" to this weather scene. I hope that politics can be put aside, and the professionals allowed to do thier job. Again, thanks for the data nad explainations. Adjuster.
G'morning!

Easterly wave about to come off the African coast surprisingly already looks like it has an outflow pattern. Verde season may be cranking up. Chantal could very well be a CV storm.

The Itcz in the eastern Atlantic also looks to be further north than recent weeks.

Link
1357. bobw999
This doesn't look good for morning flights.

MIA Concourse Evacuated For Security Scare
the gulf looks grumpy this morning, anything other than rain to be concerned about?
Beagle, don't think so in the GOM, just rain. A trough is in place and higher winds prevent any development. In fact, it's fairly quiet throughout the Caribbean and Atlantic, too. Interesting waves about to come off of Africa. IMVHO
Great! Thanks:)
Miami airport evacuated in bomb scare 2007 The Associated Press
MIAMI A Miami International Airport terminal was evacuated early Monday after authorities found what appeared to be an explosive device at a security checkpoint.

"A possible explosive device showed up in an X-ray machine at the checkpoint," airport spokesman Greg Chin said. He said the Miami-Dade bomb squad was investigating and had no further information.

Passengers were evacuated from Terminal F, which serves United Airlines domestic and international flights.

That makes it even worse UA covers a lot of flights

1362. IKE
From the New Orleans extended....


"Making note of the circulation near the la coast...this area is
not expected to become a formative tropical system. But it will
help to bring a plethora of moisture over the area which is a more
important aspect than it becoming a tropical system. The heavy
rainfall will begin today around rush hour for the New Orleans
metropolitan area and at or just after rush hour for the Baton Rouge
metropolitan area. The area of heavy rain will enter the southern miss
areas shortly thereafter.


Severe weather is not expected but there is a significant
possibility of waterspout activity as long as strong vorticity and very
deep moisture are in place.


Long term...
as the upper low sinks into Mexico...a Montana upper high will develop
along the Texas coast trapping the deep tropical moisture beneath. This
will help keep the daily sh/ts pattern going. But the precipitation
percentages will fall into the chance area instead of categorical
through middle week. By the end of the week another upper trough digs
southward and an associated front moves into the deep south once
again. Kind of a strange pattern to see during the deep Summer
months."...............


Another trough in the SE. You sure the pattern will change Dr. Masters???
1363. bobw999
If we have an efficient railway system like the French or the Japanese than people would have an alternative.
1364. IKE
Posted By: bobw999 at 6:18 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
If we have an efficient railway system like the French or the Japanese than people would have an alternative.


I understand your point...but, the enemy would eventually try to blow that up.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST MON JUL 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MONA PASSAGE.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
ISLANDS. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/WEAK CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS HELPING TO SPARK ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.


Glad they mentioned it. I thought I was seeing something that wasn't there.
Good Morning All.....Looks like a "line" of shear just ahead of that weak wave moving past Puerto Rico (between PR and Hispanola) will prevent any significant development at this time.........I'll lurk for most of the day but looking forward to Dr. Masters 2nd half of July outlook later today..
as the upper low sinks into Mexico...a Montana upper high will develop along the Texas coast trapping the deep tropical moisture beneath. This will help keep the daily sh/ts pattern going. But the precipitation percentages will fall into the chance area instead of categorical through middle week. By the end of the week another upper trough digs southward and an associated front moves into the deep south once again. Kind of a strange pattern to see during the deep Summer months."........




Actually this sounds very similar to the 2004 pattern that pulled Charley N.E. out of the Western Carribean in August and Ivan further East than models were predicting in September. (if I remember correctly)
Hello there, I have been lurking for several years, (actually since we lost our house with Frances and Jeanne) and learning quite a bit about the tropics. So what were the actual differences in the 04/05 and 06 seasons? Did last year have more wind shear and more dust in the atmosphere than the year before? And is there a similar scenario this year? Because honestly I like it when there is really nothing going on in the tropics, it gives a certain peace of mind, if you know what I mean.
8:06 AM and we have thunder, dark clouds. Radar shows a nice little patch coming to us. Now that we are getting rain on a daily basis, not looking forward to anything tropical.

Good Morning, everybody. This next wave over Africa may be the one that "kick starts" the season. It appears have very good outflow and structure. Outflow like that leads to sinking
air ahead of, and north of the rising air around its center. This sinking air could
actually strengthen the A/B high, especially
if it gets any stronger.
Ivan - once something like that is noticed, approximately how long does it take before we see a US landfall? Are there any conditions that might likely squelch development?
1372. Patrap
GOM IR loop...Link
Morning all, getting ready for our daily rain here in coastal MS, have to run and beat the deluge. Comforting to hear on tv and here that the blob by NO isn't going to be anything. LOL

I was just through last year here but Gulf and all just look weird. That rolling boil by PR I think is the same thing I saw yesterday. I know this is impossible but looked like a TD on it's side?
1374. IKE
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 7:08 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
Good Morning, everybody. This next wave over Africa may be the one that "kick starts" the season.


I was watching The Weather Channel this morning...they were showing the July 11th-20th developments in the Atlantic. It the last 124 years, there's never been a storm to develop east of 40 west.

I'm not saying that wave won't develop...if it does, it's probably going to have to west of 40 degrees.
Last year (2006) "shear" was the major player that killed hurricane formation during the heart of the season........As well as African dust issues...A whole bunch of factors need to be in place for formation (warm water/low shear/moist air/, etc.) and any one of them, which is not on-line at any given moment, can make or break, a potentional system from developing..
Wannabe--thanks for the info
Hello there, I have been lurking for several years, (actually since we lost our house with Frances and Jeanne) and learning quite a bit about the tropics. So what were the actual differences in the 04/05 and 06 seasons? Did last year have more wind shear and more dust in the atmosphere than the year before? And is there a similar scenario this year? Because honestly I like it when there is really nothing going on in the tropics, it gives a certain peace of mind, if you know what I mean.


Last year had more shear, fewer triggers (african waves, thunderstorm complexes etc.)
lower sea surface temps and a moderate El
Nino pattern. I believe that deeper sst.s
play a bigger role than is known. All the
upwelling from 04 and especially 05 may have
left the deeper waters cooler. 05 was
two seasons in itself, especially for the Gulf
and Carribean. With no upwelling last year, I'm
afraid the heat depleted deeper waters of 06
are overcharged this year.
1378. bobw999
In 2006 we saw a strong trough along the east coast that curved all the storms out to sea.
1379. IKE
From Tallahassee, Fl. extended.....


"Long term...although the upper ridge will finally reach US on
Wednesday...it is prognosticated by both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) to break down fairly
quickly...with the familiar trough of this early 2007 Summer season
back in place across the southeast U.S. By Friday...with it holding through
at least the upcoming weekend in all likelihood."
Oh crap so I should worry this year???

Thanks all!!!
1381. bobw999
I like your name "Ihateflorida".

When I retire I'm out of this place.
1382. IKE
And thanks to the CMC/GEM model for causing a panic all weekend on this blog.
Hey guys...

Just updated my blog on my expectation of what Dr. Masters will have in his bi-monthly outlook. Drop me a comment!

Have a good day, everyone! (ugh, Monday)
1384. IKE
Posted By: bobw999 at 7:31 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
I like your name "Ihateflorida".

When I retire I'm out of this place.


LOL....
Ike, I agree. I wouldn't expect anything to grow rapidly this early out that far however
even the rising air of a well developed tropical wave sinks around it. This sinking
air can have a strengthening effect on surrounding high pressure systems. Remember
when Katrina bottomed out and dipped south.
I'm fairly sure katrina's rapidly rising air
sank into (therefore strengthening)the A/B high to the north.
1386. IKE
Posted By: MississippiWx at 7:32 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
Hey guys...

Just updated my blog on my expectation of what Dr. Masters will have in his bi-monthly outlook.


He'll say no development for the next week...the pattern looks like it might change to what he had mentioned in this blog...which, is debatable, looking at the GFS model.

Translated in plain English...*yawn*.
1387. IKE
And nothing(yawn), is good!
Bob--yeah well we moved here in April of 04--moved out of the house into a rental in Sept. of 04 moved back in in April of 05. That in itself makes for a bad feeling besides it being HOT forever and having lots of snakes. I HATE SNAKES too!!!!!!
1389. IKE
Heck...I have snakes that show up on my back porch...by the washer/dryer..and about a month ago I had a squirrel IN MY COMMODE! ALIVE!

Imagine getting up at 5 in the morning...going to relieve yourself and a squirrel is bathing in your commode.

I live in Florida too....the summers are waaay too long. Insurance on your house is a joke....too many hurricanes...one more big one and I may leave.
1390. bobw999
The roads are so crowded, I can't understand half the people that live here (I don't speak Spanish), and its too dang hot.
1391. bobw999
One Frances, Two Jeanne, Three Wilma, For Sale......
1392. IKE
I understand...been here all my life, except for a year or 2 in Knoxville,TN. I'd rather live up there!

Look at the blowup in the gulf of Mexico...Link
But (sorry Ike), I really like North Florida (here now 7 years) compared to South Florida (after having lived there ll my life)....Between the population growth/hurricanes/muggy weather year round/traffic/rudeness/road rage/insurance rates/auto insurance (I could go on), I could never live down there again.....
Well thanks guys, I don't feel so alone anymore. My husband LOVES the heat and LOVES Florida so I guess I am stuck here for a bit. I am getting a three week vacation to Scotland this August for our 30th anniversary and I am sooooooo looking forward to that (highs right now in the low 60's over there). Gotta go now fight back the snakes and melt into a puddle doing the yard work. Thanks again for all the fine information on the tropics and what to watch for.
Posted By: Ihateflorida at 12:42 PM GMT on July 16, 2007.
Bob--yeah well we moved here in April of 04--moved out of the house into a rental in Sept. of 04 moved back in in April of 05. That in itself makes for a bad feeling besides it being HOT forever and having lots of snakes. I HATE SNAKES too!!!!!!


I have seen two snakes in a year and a half in MS by the coast. One was a huge snake under a chunk of concrete from a house we were demolishing and the other was in the street drain outside after a big rain, was trapped, I threatened to feed him, garter snake. I work raking up after tree crews and house demos sometimes in between errands etc. and I SHOULD see snakes I would think logically?

I HATE snakes too, the lack of them is a really NEAT part of being where a hurricane was??
Ivan - once something like that is noticed, approximately how long does it take before we see a US landfall? Are there any conditions that might likely squelch development?

All that means is the Cape Verde season is
starting. It is still quite early for anything
coming off Africa. It would have to fight
shear, sahara dust, & an upper low north of
Puerto Rico . I really don't expect much off Africa until August. The early activity prepares the environment for the ones to
really worry about in August and September.
Speaking of wild Florida, I fished the western edge of the Gulf Stream east of Port Canaveral yesterday. The surface temp was 89 degrees; nothing but barcuda around..once in port there was a tornado to the right as the cruise ships exited. Don't forget the torurist in the multi million dollar boat with few cents in how to navigate..cutting offf the Mariner of the Seas who sounded the emergency alarm...and all the while the winds were increasing and incredible lightning speared down near the deep blue purple whatever squall line....that's action...fishing still was lousy tho...
1398. IKE
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 7:51 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
But (sorry Ike), I really like North Florida (here now 7 years) compared to South Florida (after having lived there ll my life)....Between the population growth/hurricanes/muggy weather year round/traffic/rudeness/road rage/insurance rates/auto insurance (I could go on), I could never live down there again.....


I couldn't live down there either.

North Florida is okay...one more buzzsaw storm and I may head north.
groundman--I have 5, count them, five bad attitude black snakes that live right around my house. They guard the front door, the back door, the side door, garage door and pool door. when you try to shoo them away from the door so you can get into the house they stand on theyr tail and hiss at you. So to try to deal with them I have named the. I have Boston Blackie, Lord & Lady Hissssster, Sir Pent, Snakely Whiplash.

Oh well, back to the tropics.
How does the Saharan Air Layer disappear over the Gulf and North America and the Caribbean, and magically re-appear in the Eastern Pacific?

Pacific SAL

(Comment edited for numerous mistakes)
Deleted for bad HTML-Fu
1402. bobw999
How does the Saharan Air Layer disappear over the Gulf and North America and the Caribbean, and magically re-appear in the eastern Atlantic?

Well the SAL comes from Africa (hence Saharan) and I'm assuming as it moves over the waters the SAL dies down.
Preview
Is
My
Pal

Please work!
1404. bobw999
I think I heard something about why SAL shows up in the EPAC. I can't remember the full details but they said something that its not actually dust.
bobw999

My bad typing and bad image-fu made my question hard to understand. The CIMSS SAL image implies Saharan air in the East Pac, and I'd say that would more correctly be called "The Sonoran Air Layer", or the "Sonoran-Chihuahuan Air Layer".
Ike, I lived in Knoxville until I was 8, my
parents are from Nashville.

W.Wanabe is right. North Florida rules. It
has everything good about S. Florida plus
"Southern Hospitality". The southern Mason/Dixon line runs from Ft. Pierce to
Tampa. Go south of that and your'e back in the "North". I like "southern" living much
better.
Sonoran-Chihuahuan

sounds like a chihuaha dog to me lol
hello everybody im back!
1408. bobw999
South Florida is truly a melting pot. I would prefer living in Mass or Vermont.
1409. Murko
LOL, you guys should try living in the Bahamas for heat. It's been 90+ every day since March. At least we don't have the road rage, it's illegal not to drive without a beer!
Posted By: bobw999 at 9:11 AM EDT on July 16, 2007.

South Florida is truly a melting pot. I would prefer living in Mass or Vermont.


I know im about to get out of here. I was standing outside maybe 30 seconds to a minute JUST STANDING and i was sweating like i had ran the mile in the dessert. whew!
Need to stay on topic (but what the hay)...Yea, visited Vermont last year with the kids (Ben & Jerry's, etc.) and loved it over there. But is was Summer and I don't think I could take the brutal Winters up there. But, if I win the Lotto then bingo; winter home in North Florida and Summer home in Vermont!
Desert my bad o and the hot one not the ones that are cold.* lol
1413. bobw999
LOL wunderwomen
I was talking about the diversity of people here.
The CIMSS SAL image implies Saharan air in the East Pac

That is because not everything that it shows is realy SAL - you need to look at the visible to see if there is actually any dust (which appears as a yellow or brown color):

Notes:

Dry air and suspended aerosols (e.g. mineral dust) both contribute to a positive "SAL" signal in this imagery, but the relative contribution of each cannot be determined from this imagery alone.

Polar air originating from the mid-latitudes produces a positive signal in this imagery that is similar to that of the SAL. This is because both air masses contain substantial dry air in the lower to middle troposphere. The JAVA movie is a useful tool for determining which type of air mass is being indicated in the imagery.

Areas of very cold water e.g. west of South America) can affect the split window algorithm and produce a false positive "SAL" signal. These regions can be easily identified using the JAVA movie because they tend not to move or change form for several consecutive days.
o well you know me i gotta have my input on everything. I think it is my duty in life! lol haha j/k
How does the Saharan Air Layer disappear over the Gulf and North America and the Caribbean, and magically re-appear in the Eastern Pacific?


The red on the map (I believe) indicates lack of moisture
content. The air offshore California is dry, and the
water is cool. As the SAL travels westward,the warm waters influence the air. Evaporation gradually moistens the air as it rides the easterly tradewinds. The Carribean/Gulf waters are downrighthot. Hotter water
speeds up the evaporation process. As the summer continues the water temps off Africa catch up so the
SAL becomes a little less of a factor.
You wanna talk about the perversity of people here?
Ok then..

What was that? Oh........... Diversitiy!....

Never mind.
omg!!
Impressive Ike thanks for the link. Looks like a wet day in La.
Good morning
It now appears that conditions in the eastern atlantic are improving for tropical storm development. wind shear has been relaxing between 5-10 knots ,with an area of 20 knots close to the island chain. the SAL is also weakening together with increase moisture. as well as the MJO on the upward trend. One would expect an increase in tropical activity during the next two weeks.
Posted By: Murko at 9:13 LOL, you guys should try living in the Bahamas
Hello, neighbor to the North...
CRS - on Provo
Morning all

As I said last Thur... I will go out my front door after noon and see if I can spot any CMC Vorticity...
CRS
1423. Murko
Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 1:54 PM GMT on July 16, 2007.

Hello, neighbor to the North...
CRS - on Provo


Hi from the REAL land of the free: Eleuthera, Bahamas!

M
hey to all from Puerto Rico...
i see the CMC is still getting into daddy's "juice" cabinet. anything actually worth watching out in the waters?
i see the CMC is still getting into daddy's "juice" cabinet

I see absolutely NOTHING on the CMC... I think that everybody should stop looking at only vorticity and actually check the SLP maps to see if there is actually even a surface low (and look at the East Pacific to see what you want to look for).
its about time those good-doers were taken off the streets... too many good deeds can corrupt anyone.
Ive heard its contagious
hey to all from Puerto Rico...
i see the CMC is still getting into daddy's "juice" cabinet. anything actually worth watching out in the waters?


Maybe at the beach.
lol super human kind of a guy, yet approachable and humble.
overall great man that Uncle Sam
lol super human kind of a guy, yet approachable and humble.
overall great man that Uncle Sam
well i was worried it was going to rain here in PR today and i semi canceled a beach trip... but its turning out to be a pretty ok day so im going to go anyway....
so im off to the beach
1434. IKE
Posted By: benirica at 9:31 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
well i was worried it was going to rain here in PR today and i semi canceled a beach trip... but its turning out to be a pretty ok day so im going to go anyway....
so im off to the beach


Lucky!
1435. Patrap
TORNADO WARNING Biloxi ,Miss.....


633
WFUS54 KLIX 161425
TORLIX
MSC047-161500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0024.070716T1425Z-070716T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
925 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...BILOXI...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 920 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR BILOXI...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ST. MARTIN BY 930 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3037 8907 3040 8888 3068 8887 3068 8904
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