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Quiet in the Atlantic; Melor's rains headed for California; Parma kills 160

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:21 PM GMT on October 09, 2009

Tropical Storm Henri is dead, killed by high wind shear. Henri's remains may bring some isolated heavy rain showers to Puerto Rice today, and San Juan radar is showing a large area of disorganized rain showers north of the island. Henri's remains will move over the northern portion of the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and northern Haiti on Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that Henri's remains will pose a flooding threat to any of the islands. Henri's remains have grown so disorganized that regeneration into a tropical depression is unlikely.

A tropical wave (92L) is over Trinidad and the northern coast of South America. This wave has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms due to interaction with land. The 8pm EDT run of the HWRF model indicated that 92L might be able to organize into a tropical depression, but none of the other models are calling for development. The disturbance is too close to the coast of South America for any development to occur for at least a day or two. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Henri just north of Puerto Rico and Invest 92L over Trinidad and the coast of South America.

Typhoon Melor's remains set to drench California
Typhoon Melor made landfall at 2 am local time on Thursday, October 8, in central Japan's Aichi prefecture (population 7 million), as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Melor is being blamed for 2 deaths and up to $1.5 billion in damage. Melor's remains will be paying a visit to California Monday through Wednesday, and the storm is expected to dump 1 - 3 inches of rain along the Northern California coast, and 3 - 6 inches in the hills and Sierra Mountains. High winds of 20 - 40 mph will accompany the rain. Though the heavy rains may cause some flooding problems, they will be more boon than burden--California is under moderate to severe drought.

Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for the period 5am PDT Monday through 5am PDT Wednesday. Heavy rains of up to six inches are expected over Northern California from the remains of Typhoon Melor. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Typhoon Parma kills 160 in the Philippines
Tropical Storm Parma has completed its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island, and is now headed westward across the South China Sea towards China. Yesterday, rains from Parma's three crossings of northern Luzon triggered landslides that killed at least 160 people. At least 300 Filipinos died two weeks ago due to flooding from Typhoon Ketsana, and the sodden Philippines will finally get a chance to dry out with no more typhoons expected to visit for at least the next week.

The Washington Post posted an interesting story today on What Happened to Hurricane Season.

Jeff Masters


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