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Quiet in the Atlantic; Melor's rains headed for California; Parma kills 160

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:21 PM GMT on October 09, 2009

Tropical Storm Henri is dead, killed by high wind shear. Henri's remains may bring some isolated heavy rain showers to Puerto Rice today, and San Juan radar is showing a large area of disorganized rain showers north of the island. Henri's remains will move over the northern portion of the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and northern Haiti on Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that Henri's remains will pose a flooding threat to any of the islands. Henri's remains have grown so disorganized that regeneration into a tropical depression is unlikely.

A tropical wave (92L) is over Trinidad and the northern coast of South America. This wave has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms due to interaction with land. The 8pm EDT run of the HWRF model indicated that 92L might be able to organize into a tropical depression, but none of the other models are calling for development. The disturbance is too close to the coast of South America for any development to occur for at least a day or two. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Henri just north of Puerto Rico and Invest 92L over Trinidad and the coast of South America.

Typhoon Melor's remains set to drench California
Typhoon Melor made landfall at 2 am local time on Thursday, October 8, in central Japan's Aichi prefecture (population 7 million), as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Melor is being blamed for 2 deaths and up to $1.5 billion in damage. Melor's remains will be paying a visit to California Monday through Wednesday, and the storm is expected to dump 1 - 3 inches of rain along the Northern California coast, and 3 - 6 inches in the hills and Sierra Mountains. High winds of 20 - 40 mph will accompany the rain. Though the heavy rains may cause some flooding problems, they will be more boon than burden--California is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for the period 5am PDT Monday through 5am PDT Wednesday. Heavy rains of up to six inches are expected over Northern California from the remains of Typhoon Melor. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Typhoon Parma kills 160 in the Philippines
Tropical Storm Parma has completed its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island, and is now headed westward across the South China Sea towards China. Yesterday, rains from Parma's three crossings of northern Luzon triggered landslides that killed at least 160 people. At least 300 Filipinos died two weeks ago due to flooding from Typhoon Ketsana, and the sodden Philippines will finally get a chance to dry out with no more typhoons expected to visit for at least the next week.

The Washington Post posted an interesting story today on What Happened to Hurricane Season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So,we are back into a quiet tropical season.For various reasons,this season could not get its act together,El Nino probably the biggest contributing factor.
Thank You for your insights Mr. Masters I'm currently a student who has always had a passion for the weather and all the physical sciences, hopefully one of these days I get to meet great ppl like you who always inform us and warn us about storms in advance. I've never been in part of a natural disaster and hope I never will, but it would be nice to fly into the eye of an hurricane or be a stormchaser.
Not going down that road,nope,not going to do it


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

Small northern shift on track for 92L, this could give it a bit more sea room.
Thank You very much for the update Dr. Masters. Have a nice weekend everyone
Wrong way: NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Right way: NHC is giving 92L a low chance (less than 30%) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.



Quoting Neverseensnow:
Wrong way: NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Right way: NHC is giving 92L a low chance (less than 30%) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.




Right way... poof.
Quoting Neverseensnow:
Wrong way: NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Right way: NHC is giving 92L a low chance (less than 30%) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.




My comp 1 teacher says when you become a writer or journalist for a newspaper, your allowed to make those kinds of mistakes or at least wing it to make the audience understand; however, i see nothing wrong with their statement and your is a fragment need a comma in there somewhere.
Thx Dr. Masters.
It has been a wonderful season for the gulf coast. How unusual to watch so many storms get stymied. My wife and I were blessed with a surprise daughter 5 months ago (son is sophomore at auburn) so I have been praying for a quiet season this year. We rode out Katrina, but that kind of folly cannot be considered anymore now that our sweet girl is here. Take care all.
Tornado Watch 762 Probabilities

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more strong(F2-F5)tornadoes: Mod (40%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots: Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches: Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events: High (80%)


More chance for stronger tornadoes. That is kinda rare.
Winter showing its face in the rockies and plains
Nice Blog!
El Nino has literally destroyed every Tropical system that has developed in the ATL basin this year. I must admit I am sad and disappointed personally! I do not like the damage and pain TS/Hurricanes afflict upon people, but I am MADLY in love with Tropical weather systems! But after last years active, intense and damaging season, quite frankly, we did not need another season like 2008.

There are still a few weeks left to this month, we may possibly see 1 maybe 2 more storms in the ATL basin, but apparently that may be about it.

Then look at the E, C, and W PAC. We has Jimena, a strong CAT 4, or did it make it to CAT 5??; the central PAC has several storms cross 140W and die out near or around Hawaii, which was interesting. The W PAC had Super Typhoon Choi-Wan, Parma and Melor, plus Ketsana.

Interesting Parma is still alive and kicking, a a TD/TS. Latest JTWC have her sailing toward, you guessed it Vietnam!!

AHHHH, Melor is an Extratropical storm that is going to get literally FLY across the PAC in 4 days, compliments of the Westerlies and the Jet Stream will literally ram it into N CA. It has been several years since N CA has had a good rain-maker, it will be very, very interesting to see how the system will impact N CA. Noticed the NWS meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay area have been talking about it now for 2 days! Is it possible that this storm may be N CA "Storm of the 21ST Century"? It's not outside the realm of possibility, their is a 50KT+ wind field expect at the 925MB level, hitting the Sierra Nevada MTS. Besides up to 3-6" or rain in the mountains. If some of those winds translate to ground level, maybe up to 60-100MPH wind gusts possible in the MTS. Plus 1-3" of rain in SAN FRAN. It will be more like the INTENSE systems that slam into the Pacific Northwest, and they get REAL UGLY..

Have a great day, drink plenty of coffee, be blessed and play nice everyone :)!!

Quoting Orcasystems:

Right way... poof.


You show 'em Orca :P. Anyways, back to the blobs of fire.
thanks for pointing that out cane whisperer i assumed wrong mojo moving in next week. a couple days ago it was looking like a mini mojo moved in the basin but it disapeered.
oh and thank you Dr. like this, kinda like the calm before the storm, hopefully it isn't too bad when it comes, if it comes.
19. LBAR
Bring on the rain!
20. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:
Winter showing its face in the rockies and plains




92L is dead dont see in makeing it to a TD this will be SA system
A november type pattern setting up for conus next week.
I think we are seeing the begining of the upward pulse of the MJO today, imo thats why AOI in the SW Caribbean is there.
i'm all alone, no one is here beside me.
"Tropical Storm Henri is dead,
killed by shear," he's put to bed
Another one bites the dust
In a season that's been a bust
"Atlantic quiet" is dead ahead.
Thanks Dr.; things did not pan out overnight for Henri and 92L so gonna get ready for some Football this weekend. The second half of October may turn out to be a battle between frontal remnants/sheer levels/MJO pulse and no way to know how it will turn out. However, the ITCZ is starting to recede back down (as it normally does in Winter), and as we have seen with the path of 92L, so I think that the CV season is "officially" over at this point. We are now back in the "normal" patttern of keeping an eye on the Western Caribbean/Gulf/Florida coastal region for possible development from frontal remnants. Really nice to see however, and as noted below, that Florida and the Gulf appear to have been spared from any damaging storms this year. It is actually a great season so far for all concerned (with the obvious exception of the poor folks in the Pacific Basin this year).
Do you also wish for tornados to form in OK. Or floods? Wildfires? How do you get off on other people's suffering?
Quoting JF939410:
BORDONARO:

ON IGNORE... IDIOT FILTER ACTIVATED...

No, I am 48. I love TROPICAL SYSTEMS hate the damage they cause...Thank you very much, have a great day!!!
. Bordonaro this hit ! and Ignore JF939410 is this other troll that likes too mass with some one
Quoting Tazmanian:
. Bordonaro this hit ! and Ignore JF939410 is this other troll that likes too mass with some one

I am 48 YOA, I saw 2 mild Hurricanes and a strong Tropical Storm. I love to watch storms form, whatever they are. I have seen grapefruit size hail destroy my 2 cars, I've seen 115MPH straight line winds, 2 freak 10" rainfall episodes in Arlington, TX. Saw what an F4 Tornado did to Arlington, TX & what an F2 Tornado did to Ft Worth. MY OWN DAUGHTER SAW AND WENT THRU AN F1 TORNADO in Nashville, TN this year. I literally cry everytime I hear about what damage and lives have been lost through these storms..BUT I still love Tropical weather and severe weather outbreaks!!!
Quoting JF939410:


You sound like an idiot. Are you 12? If you had been through one then you might not be so happy to see them form. I know people who fall apart still, when one even approaches because they have been through one previously. You need to get a life, buddy.


I still get goosebumps from Katrina's Florida's landfall when it become apparent that, her eye WAS OVER US. We were shocked we thought it would at least go to Palm beach but it hit right over us!!! Luckily only a few roof shingles was the extent of the damage, well until Wilma.
36: Are you really trying to converse with that?

For some posts, it is rather obvious that a quote doesn't serve us (collectively) well.
Quoting JF939410:
BORDONARO:

ON IGNORE... IDIOT FILTER ACTIVATED...


If you would read what he wrote then you would see he don't wish no harm on anyone. Alot of folks like to track the storms it's called a hobby and no one should be scorned for voicing there opinion. So if you banned him for his opinion you will be banning alot of folks on here. Plus you don't look very familiar. Newbie probably. BORDONARO has been here for awhile and he talks to alot of folks on here, and alot of them like him. So keep banning cause you'll be the one banned and - so many times no one will see you no more. You have a nice day know.

Sheri
dark red spots near ex henri
Quoting JF939410:
Anyway, you kids all behave yourselves. The adults have to go back to work...


I'm relatively new. Let's see if I get this right: "poof"
Quoting JF939410:
Anyway, you kids all behave yourselves. The adults have to go back to work...


oh you have a job? I thought you was 10 and home on a sick day. Go back to work. See Ya.
42. IKE
92L...what's left of it...

Quoting leftovers:
dark red spots near ex henri

Convection firing up around the LLC. If he was a 5 year old child, he's have the measles, LOL!
I will never forget picking through the literal "rubble" of my girlfriends house at the time tyring to find pictures and personal items the afternoon after Andrew leveled her entire neighborhood. We both made a descision, the Sunday afternoon before Andrew hit, to stay at both of our parents houses for the storm because they were elderly and we figured they might need some help if the storm headed their way (Both set of parents lived in Northen sections of Miami so the parents just lost power for eight days). I was the first one to arrive back her house on Monday morning and and it took her (and I am sure most of the folks around ground zero)over five years to recover finacially and emotionally from the loss.
area near 8n 34 w is under 20-30knots of wind shear. wait and see what happens when it gets to 40w where conditions are more favourable for development
sitting on porch, watching cold front come through Houston, dark grey clouds in back. good cigar. strong coffee.

wind went from calm to maybe gusts up to 25mph. temperature had to have dropped about 10 deg not including wind chill (estimating). no rain, yet but it's coming. humidity damn near disappeared!

LIFE IS GOOD (sometimes)!



Quoting JF939410:
"too mass with someone."

Somebody must have been sleeping in English class...


You need to get a life and leave taz alone. Your really showing you true colors. Not very pleasant i must say. Go back to school and learn respect if u can. oops i misspelled a word.
This is the kind of people that don't deserve to be in this blog. I think you are getting alone jf939410. POOF!
92L had to be a struggler, the set up yesterday was not in favour of development. if we look back, there were many inhibitng factors. proximity to land. very little convergence. weak 850 vort and to fast a foreward speed.
Looks like the remnants of Henri is headed wsw right through the mona passage clearing any land mass, if it gets in the Caribbean, it might have a chance to regenerate, I wouldn't write off 92L just yet either, jmo.
51. DDR
Good morning
Reporting from Trinidad,92L droped 45mm of rain in my area,the sky clearing up,nice!
Quoting stoormfury:
92L had to be a struggler, the set up yesterday was not in favour of development. if we look back there wre many inhibitng factors. proximity to land. very little convergence. weak 850 vort and to fast a foreward speed.


Whenever I think about the "proximity to land issue" I thnk about Humberto forming right up against the Texas coast but 92L was not in the same league......
Quoting JF939410:
"too mass with someone."

Somebody must have been sleeping in English class...


JF939410, while I am as picky as anyone when it comes to published works (like the IEEE paper I am about to submit), I have found tolerance to bad spelling, punctuation and grammar in online forums such as this... as should everyone!

This is a more casual forum in that respect, so comments about technical details instead of content is rather silly.

Keep also in mind that we have many members for whom English is not their first spoken or written language... and/or they live in the Caribbean where you speak and type more of a "patois" than a formal language.

Of course, now I am off-topic myself!

:-)
Gonna get some work done but everyone have a great weekend..........WW
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Gonna get some work done but everyone have a great weekend..........WW


LIAR!!! only one person on this board has a job, remember??? rest of us are "kids"
Quoting GTcooliebai:

My comp 1 teacher says when you become a writer or journalist for a newspaper, your allowed to make those kinds of mistakes or at least wing it to make the audience understand; however, i see nothing wrong with their statement and your is a fragment need a comma in there somewhere.


"you're allowed" or "your allowed"?

Your advice is wrong. No comma needed.
Quoting timtrice:


LIAR!!! only one person on this board has a job, remember??? rest of us are "kids"


Hahaha, right?

I don't have a job.
I feel like a kid.


(OK, to be fair, I am an "independent contractor/software engineer" with no contracts, and a full-time student at FAU)
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like the remnants of Henri is headed wsw right through the mona passage clearing any land mass, if it gets in the Caribbean, it might have a chance to regenerate, I wouldn't write 92L just yet either, jmo.
do u think 92L will amount to anything
There are definately words in my vocabulary, which I am SO TEMPTED to use at this moment!

Out of respect for Dr Masters and my friends, who kindly stood up for me, I will keep those comments to myself.

I enjoy this blog very much. MANY of us work hard to support their families and many of us who are currently out of work will return to work shortly. I enjoy chatting with people from the Caribbean, Australia amongst other nations. Weather is something that is ever changing, effecting everyone who lives and breathes. Don't care about trolls, bad spelling and peoples opinion of myself.
Quoting timtrice:


LIAR!!! only one person on this board has a job, remember??? rest of us are "kids"
:) I really "want" to be a tropical meteorologist but I might have to wait to re-enroll in the FSU Met Program after I retire from my "real" job....
Here is my latest Local Weather slideshow for those interested.

From last night at 10:30PM EDT for Everett, PA



If this is illegal in the blog, please tell me and I'll remove.
Other than high pressure to its north, why has 92L hugged to such a low level of latitude? I thought that because of the Coreolis Effect, the storm would eventually spin further away from the Equator.
I should've actually said, "other than the possibility of high presure to its north, why has 92L stayed so low in the latitudes"?
Good Morning StormW. Thanks for the update.

I always keep remnants in my peripheral vision until there is nothing left to track. :)

As for track on the remnants of Henri, Navy has it moving due west through tomorrow:

Link to full size image

Quoting NEwxguy:
So,we are back into a quiet tropical season.For various reasons,this season could not get its act together,El Nino probably the biggest contributing factor.


It was certainly a contributing factor; I think specific atmospheric conditions not necessarily linked to the moderate El Nino added to the mix...
StormW....thanks for the answer.
BTW, I think all of you who are not expecting much out of Invest 92L are way off. I personally like the GFT2, though I think it's a bit on the weak side.

71. IKE
92L.....

Quoting Floodman:


It was certainly a contributing factor; I think specific atmospheric conditions not necessarily linked to the moderate El Nino added to the mix...


Hiya,Flood,
In any season its usually many factors that go into a make or break season,even before the El nino really took hold,the conus was in a very strange trough pattern in the east,which continued right through the summer.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


JF939410, while I am as picky as anyone when it comes to published works (like the IEEE paper I am about to submit), I have found tolerance to bad spelling, punctuation and grammar in online forums such as this... as should everyone!

This is a more casual forum in that respect, so commentst is rather silly.

Keep also in mind that we have many members for whom English is not their first spoken or written language... and/or they live in the Caribbean where you speak and type more of a "patois" than a formal language.

Of course, now I am off-topic myself!

:-)
Adding to that for many of us English is just one of the few languages that we speak not the only one, and sometimes is confusing. Most of the isladers speak an average of three to four languages. Some tolerance for this is needed. Many of this people are otherwise in the most part very educated people.
yesterday was 92s day todays is ex henri notice how is has pulsed in the day have seen that in the past with late season systems
Looks like land interaction will destroy anything that is currently left of Henri.
Front just came through in Corpus Christi

front
In Belgium and Holland, Caribbean & other places our waitresses and hotel workers spoke 3 or 4 languages. Wow, is that a humbling experience and did I feel dumb.
Sometimes I can limp along on my high school French, and it's nice when people appreciate that I'm at least trying.
Hats off to multi-lingual people!
Quoting duajones78413:
Front just came through in Corpus Christi

front

Is Corpus Christi part of the extreme drought area? Is this a good thing? Hope so.
Didn't mean to kill the blog. See y'all later!
Yes, Corpus Christi is part of the extreme drought area,we need it badly
to me looks like henri is on a more west track.
Quoting duajones78413:
Yes, Corpus Christi is part of the extreme drought area,we need it badly

Excellent -- good luck!
{Back to lurk mode.)
I have to say, at the moment, Henri's remnants appear to be moving west and becoming a little better defined. Elongated but more visible.
The season was so quiet that I'm sure the insurance companies will be returning some premiums and lowering their rates.

Right!

Nationwide, after 18 years, is dropping my policy, along with 60,000 other Florida homeowner's policies. I had to hear it on the news first. It is just as well, as their ratings are going down the crapper too. Probably due to their outstanding management. Be sure to use all of their other financial products.
Scum sucking weasels.
They couldn't have had a better customer. Think there is much risk around my house? They never were "on my side".
spread is FL by 7.5 and the O/U is 44.... hmmmmmmmm???
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
The season was so quiet that I'm sure the insurance companies will be returning some premiums and lowering their rates.

Right!

Nationwide, after 18 years, is dropping my policy, along with 60,000 other Florida homeowner's policies. I had to hear it on the news first. It is just as well, as their ratings are going down the crapper too. Probably due to their outstanding management. Be sure to use all of their other financial products.
Scum sucking weasels.

That really does it, this time I'm really dropping THEM (I have homeowner's ins. only with Nationwide). I've been meaning to make that change since H. Wilma in '05 anyway. So sorry. (I know I said I'd lurk but I got riled up.)
Quoting Bigguy675:
Other than high pressure to its north, why has 92L hugged to such a low level of latitude? I thought that because of the Coreolis Effect, the storm would eventually spin further away from the Equator.


The storm has to be spinning and have some decent size or mass for the coriolis effect to curve it.
Quoting duajones78413:
Front just came through in Corpus Christi

front


that's Staples and SPID, no?

That's much heavier than I got here. Mostly a steady drizzle. Stupid freaking let-down fronts...
Yes, Corpus Christi is part of the extreme drought area,we need it badly


I don't know the totals but I drive down there every other weekend. For a while there all of the crops in the Sinton and Taft area were just dust. Saw many dust-devils in the areas. I've seen some growth recently but I don't know if it's different crops or what (cotton's the dominant crop in that area but I don't know when harvest is or if the crops were lost this year).

They also have a rather large (imo) wind farm on the west side of Portland that has just gone up in the last year. Only recently have I been seeing them turning.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
The season was so quiet that I'm sure the insurance companies will be returning some premiums and lowering their rates.

Right!

Nationwide, after 18 years, is dropping my policy, along with 60,000 other Florida homeowner's policies. I had to hear it on the news first. It is just as well, as their ratings are going down the crapper too. Probably due to their outstanding management. Be sure to use all of their other financial products.
Scum sucking weasels.
They couldn't have had a better customer. Think there is much risk around my house? They never were "on my side".
If I remember correctly they have also stated they are pulling back from the coast of TX too. Which leads me to another thought. Insurance companies have to do buisness in any given state by the guildlines of that state. So in essence any given insurance company can say we will only write/provide service in a portion of a state and apparently the states are allowing this to happen. And then the state comes in behind that puiblic insurance company and says we will provide a state tax subsadised homeowners policy for those left out from the refusal of any "on your side" for profit insurance co. I am not an expert in these matters but this is what appears to be happening along hurricane pron areas.
Their in the business to take your money. God forbid you need any of it back, they run. What's the use?

But, with a very high probability of having to dish out a ton of money every other year or so, can you blame them? The government isn't backing the securities so, all in all it's a terrible investment and highly unappealing.
Took this in my town Cape Coral on wed. Pretty cool huh?

HOw do i rezize that pic?
Quoting timtrice:
sitting on porch, watching cold front come through Houston, dark grey clouds in back. good cigar. strong coffee.

wind went from calm to maybe gusts up to 25mph. temperature had to have dropped about 10 deg not including wind chill (estimating). no rain, yet but it's coming. humidity damn near disappeared!

LIFE IS GOOD (sometimes)!




PLEASE send this to central FL!!!!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Their in the business to take your money. God forbid you need any of it back, they run. What's the use?

But, with a very high probability of having to dish out a ton of money every other year or so, can you blame them? The government isn't backing the securities so, all in all it's a terrible investment and highly unappealing.
Very true, I would hardley call it an investment. On the other hand the only way to decide that you do not want to carry the expense of HO insurance is to own your home outright.(mortgage co tell us we need insurance) And if you did own your home outright would you A) want not have insurance and B)would have enough money set aside to self insure in the event of a disaster
Quoting flsky:

PLEASE send this to central FL!!!!


done. but i sent it regular mail so it might get lost
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am 48 YOA, I saw 2 mild Hurricanes and a strong Tropical Storm. I love to watch storms form, whatever they are. I have seen grapefruit size hail destroy my 2 cars, I've seen 115MPH straight line winds, 2 freak 10" rainfall episodes in Arlington, TX. Saw what an F4 Tornado did to Arlington, TX & what an F2 Tornado did to Ft Worth. MY OWN DAUGHTER SAW AND WENT THRU AN F1 TORNADO in Nashville, TN this year. I literally cry everytime I hear about what damage and lives have been lost through these storms..BUT I still love Tropical weather and severe weather outbreaks!!!


Hello, could you tell me where you are in Tx now. I used to live in Arlington and remember one of the 10" storms you are referring to and what it did to Mansfield. I am now enjoying the good life in sunny SW Florida, but as a native Texan my heart never leaves there.
Great Washington Post rticle, Dr. Masters!

As a note, I particularly enjoyed this quote:
""The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things.""

I have to admit I smiled at that one.
Hi Timtice and duajones78413:

I'm in Ingleside. Where are you guys located...and is'nt this rain great....though I still waiting for that predicted 90% chance with some boomers.

Quoting eyesontheweather:
Very true, I would hardley call it an investment. On the other hand the only way to decide that you do not want to carry the expense of HO insurance is to own your home outright.(mortgage co tell us we need insurance) And if you did own your home outright would you A) want not have insurance and B)would have enough money set aside to self insure in the event of a disaster



Or C) Think you have it and the Insurance Co. folds under the expense of a hurricane or 2 and can't pay it. That is really where Florida and Nationwide are right now, broke, and worried they won't have the $$ to cover all the claims.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:




Or C) Think you have it and the Insurance Co. folds under the expense of a hurricane or 2 and can't pay it. That is really where Florida and Nationwide are right now, broke, and worried they won't have the $$ to cover all the claims.
I remember reading about State of Florida backed insurance being broke after 2004 was not aware of NW being in simular postion. Interesting!
Quoting Buhdog:
HOw do i rezize that pic?
I dont know but it would be cool to see it enlarged. We used to party in Cape Coral in the 1970,s. :)
Quoting timtrice:


that's Staples and SPID, no?

That's much heavier than I got here. Mostly a steady drizzle. Stupid freaking let-down fronts...

You only got stratiform? Surprised you missed all of the convection.
The radar makes it look like anything north of Matagorda is getting (or has gotten) at least one good bout of convection.

BORDONARO- Where were you when you saw 115 mph winds?
Quoting tedauxie:
Hi Timtice and duajones78413:

I'm in Ingleside. Where are you guys located...and is'nt this rain great....though I still waiting for that predicted 90% chance with some boomers.


I lived in Ingleside for a few years. Near the new park and down on the bay. I'm happily in Houston, now.

How's Ingleside treating you?
Boy I wonder why all the red states are getting screwed by insurance companies. In every why possible,my dad always said birds of a feather flock together.
Quoting timtrice:


that's Staples and SPID, no?

That's much heavier than I got here. Mostly a steady drizzle. Stupid freaking let-down fronts...


Exactly, right across from the Padre Staples mall. It came down heavy for a brief period, didnt get much
Quoting atmoaggie:

You only got stratiform? Surprised you missed all of the convection.
The radar makes it look like anything north of Matagorda is getting (or has gotten) at least one good bout of convection.



Surprised is an understatement. I was extremely disappointed. Want to see a goodl ightning show roll through but just too early in the day despite high humidities. Radar estimates for most of the area is a trace with a couple long lines of just over an inch to the north where the convection was heavier. It's dry with calm winds right now.
rain is getting close to my area should be here in less than hour from now
Goofy GFS MJO forecast.



If we ever see a better than 3 magnitude MJO in that direction, cars everywhere in North American should avoid left turns. Don't want to be responsible for starting the spin that turns into something nasty...
Is the weather going to out of the way for the game of the week. FL. vs LSU.
Quoting timtrice:


Surprised is an understatement. I was extremely disappointed. Want to see a goodl ightning show roll through but just too early in the day despite high humidities. Radar estimates for most of the area is a trace with a couple long lines of just over an inch to the north where the convection was heavier. It's dry with calm winds right now.

I guess...a lot of convergence along that line, though. That's all it takes, usually.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Is the weather going to out of the way for the game of the week. FL. vs LSU.


Looks like the timing for tapering off is right about game time.



We'll see. I just hope there is no lightning delay. A long delay might take some of the wind out of the sails of the home crowd excitement.
In Death Valley,Baton Rouge,..the Weather never dims that crowd.

Anyone who's been there knows dat Lil factoid.

ABNT20 KNHC 091735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Nuttin
haha real funny blake u should've put yellow on ex-henri his blob looks good
119. P451
Good Afternoon. 3 AOIs. Mainland US. SW Caribbean. Henri & 92L.

All 12 hour loops.





121. P451
East/Central Atlantic AOI

In the article that Dr. Masters' linked at the end of his blog:

"The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things."

So True!!!
Hello everybody I am in Trinidad and Tobago, we have had lots of rain from invest92L overnight. The rain has since stopped and there is some sun peeping out now, 1.58pm
Quoting weatherspirit:
In the article that Dr. Masters' linked at the end of his blog:

"The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things."

So True!!!


Word UP...!

LOL

When the Season is slow...the comment's dont flow.

And when the Season is Busy...the Schizzle gets dizzy.
125. P451
"Crabbiness???"
and I never even noticed.
How very strange....

heheheheheh

Sacramento Levee & Flood Risk


by Rowena Millado


Sacramento and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta's risk for flooding is the highest in the country because of the city's aging levee system that has been inadequately maintained. The River City has even less protection than that of New Orleans despite spending $300 million to strengthen the Sacramento and American rivers levees that has taken place for the past 20 years.
Quoting Patrap:
In Death Valley,Baton Rouge,..the Weather never dims that crowd.

Anyone who's been there knows dat Lil factoid.


Yeah, been there more times than I can count.

An hour delay in everything due to lightning was the only thing I've seen that mellowed everyone...a little.

Even then was louder than any aggie game I attended...
Is former Henri suppossed to go into the GOM?
Is There anything to that big blob of convection coming up into the SW Carrbean?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is former Henri suppossed to go into the GOM?


Reading the Good Dr. Masters entry always a good place to start here.


Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:21 AM CDT on October 09, 2009
Tropical Storm Henri is dead, killed by high wind shear. Henri's remains may bring some isolated heavy rain showers to Puerto Rice today, and San Juan radar is showing a large area of disorganized rain showers north of the island. Henri's remains will move over the northern portion of the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and northern Haiti on Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that Henri's remains will pose a flooding threat to any of the islands. Henri's remains have grown so disorganized that regeneration into a tropical depression is unlikely.
Quoting Patrap:


Reading the Good Dr. Masters entry always a good place to start here.


Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:21 AM CDT on October 09, 2009
Tropical Storm Henri is dead, killed by high wind shear. Henri's remains may bring some isolated heavy rain showers to Puerto Rice today, and San Juan radar is showing a large area of disorganized rain showers north of the island. Henri's remains will move over the northern portion of the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and northern Haiti on Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that Henri's remains will pose a flooding threat to any of the islands. Henri's remains have grown so disorganized that regeneration into a tropical depression is unlikely.
Ok thanks
Hope yall cook up some gator tail down there tomo night.
Quoting Patrap:

Sacramento Levee & Flood Risk

by Rowena Millado


Sacramento and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta's risk for flooding is the highest in the country because of the city's aging levee system that has been inadequately maintained. The River City has even less protection than that of New Orleans despite spending $300 million to strengthen the Sacramento and American rivers levees that has taken place for the past 20 years.
Afternoon Patrap, I have read about this for goosh at least the last 5-6 years now. Amazingly nothing ever seems to be done to improve it, Not sure they are even triming the trees around it.
FL -7.5 O/U 44 I don't know what to think about that really. I'm sure Timmy will dress out. I'm not buying the "the doc's will examine him when he gets off the plane" stuff.
Patrap what about the blob down there coming up into the SW Carribean?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Patrap what about the blob down there coming up into the SW Carribean?


That area gets the Convective prize for today..but isnt anything of note.

Quoting Patrap:


That area gets the Convective prize for today..but isnt anything of note.

ok thanks
thanks for making my pic bigger p451!

my kids thought it was a tornado.....looked like hiroshima!
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Afternoon Patrap, I have read about this for goosh at least the last 5-6 years now. Amazingly nothing ever seems to be done to improve it, Not sure they are even triming the trees around it.


Well,,thats because most,in the world of the Press,who generally inform the er,status Quo Joe Public,would rather focus their ire on NOLA and what occurred here.

When,and it will happen in Sacramento,..you and I will have the satisfaction of saying,..see.I told ya so.

But that too,wont help the dead,the Lost..nor the Survivors.

And for sure the social issues seen here,wont be a side show there.
look at the visiable loop the flow would seem to take ex henri close to south florida probally just some showers on a side note here is the link for a you tube clip of a huge wave clearing all the swimmers out. this beach is on the north coast of puerto rico near mayaquez beautiful little natural cut that can funnel waves into the lagoon never seen it like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMqODpqDOUg&feature=related
Quoting Patrap:


Well,,thats because most,in the world of the Press,who generally inform the er,status Quo Joe Public,would rather focus their ire on NOLA and what occurred here.

When,and it will happen in Sacramento,..you and I will have the satisfaction of saying,..see.I told ya so.

But that too,wont help the dead,the Lost..nor the Survivors.

And for sure the social issues seen here,wont be a side show there.
Hmmm. and remnants of Molar are looming
Gee, thanks FL high. Thanks a lot.

...Warmest night in October at several locations across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...

Gulfport had an overnight low on Friday October 9th of 83 degrees. Not only was that the warmest night ever in the month of October...it tied as the warmest night ever at Gulfport period.

McComb also experienced their warmest overnight low temperature for October with a low of 77.

New Orleans International Airport had their latest overnight low at or above of 80 degrees. The low on October 9th was 80 degrees. The old record was October 1st.

An unseasonably warm night on the Northshore as well where Slidell saw an overnight low of 81 degrees at the Slidell Airport on October 9th.

It was also the warmest October night of all time in Baton Rouge as well. The overnight low on October 9th in Baton Rouge was 79 degrees.
Some interesting outflow boundries as 92L gets shredded.
Quoting jeffs713:
Great Washington Post rticle, Dr. Masters!

As a note, I particularly enjoyed this quote:
""The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things.""

I have to admit I smiled at that one.


I was just catching up on the blog and was waiting for someone to pick that up. Doesn't look like many went to Dr. Masters link.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Quoting lawntonlookers:


I was just catching up on the blog and was waiting for someone to pick that up. Doesn't look like many went to Dr. Masters link.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

Ehh, once jeffs made the comment, I didn't have much to say about it that he didn't.
No sense in all of us saying the same thing over and over, unless it is a TWO or advisory posting (cannot have too many of those).

Just because there wasn't a comment doesn't mean it wasn't read...
Quoting StormW:


Is that 92L
Well, I did it this morning. I completed and submitted my application for admission to Ms State for their Meteorology (OMP) program! Going to be a 39 yr old college freshman, lol!
150. IKE
Quoting lawntonlookers:


I was just catching up on the blog and was waiting for someone to pick that up. Doesn't look like many went to Dr. Masters link.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.


I just read the story....

"The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things."

He left a sentence out....

And then get 24 hour bans.
151. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ehh, once jeffs made the comment, I didn't have much to say about it that he didn't.
No sense in all of us saying the same thing over and over, unless it is a TWO or advisory posting (cannot have too many of those).

Just because there wasn't a comment doesn't mean it wasn't read...



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting NdcisivProcrastn8r:
Well, I did it this morning. I completed and submitted my application for admission to Ms State for their Meteorology (OMP) program! Going to be a 39 yr old college freshman, lol!


Better late than never
Quoting Patrap:


Word UP...!

LOL

When the Season is slow...the comment's dont flow.

And when the Season is Busy...the Schizzle gets dizzy.


LOL, Pat...the Schizzle gets dizzy...
Quoting IKE:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Thanks, Ike. ;-P
Hey guys, just got back from the NWS in Indy
This is where they broadcast the noaa all-hazards radio from
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey guys, just got back from the NWS in Indy

You either got cheated out of a balloon launch or they put up one at 18Z.

Go back for 6:15 and watch them from calculate the hydrogen needed to get up to 11 mb through get the obs. Just sayin', I though it was cool.
Quoting atmoaggie:

You either got cheated out of a balloon launch or they put up one at 18Z.

Go back for 6:15 and watch them from calculate the hydrogen needed to get up to 11 mb through get the obs. Just sayin', I though it was cool.


They dont do that at this location :(
160. xcool
hey matt
Quoting xcool:
hey matt


howdy
I made a new blog of some pictures from my trip today My Blog
Quoting tornadodude:
This is where they broadcast the noaa all-hazards radio from


Nice Pics; wanted to make a room in the house like that too (with all the monitors and such for weather purposes) but my Wife won't let me...I'm gonna let her cool down and try for the Garage next Summer.
Quoting tornadodude:


They dont do that at this location :(

Dang. Sounds like a trip to another NWS office is in order...I have found them to be rather open to visitors if you just ask nicely.

Call or go by earlier in the day and set it up and I'll bet they have no problem with you coming back for the launch at 0 Z.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Nice Pics; wanted to make a room in the house like that too (with all the monitors and such for weather purposes) but my Wife won't let me...I'm gonna let her cool down and try for the Garage next Summer.


thanks, I posted a link to more, but yeah, that would definitely be really cool if you could do that

The Washington Post posted an interesting story today on What Happened to Hurricane Season.

Jeff Masters

What Happened to Hurricane Season?

Listen closely and you just might hear a pin dropping into the ocean. That's how quiet this hurricane season has been in the Atlantic.

The eight named storms thus far are only one short of the nine expected at this point in an average season. But only two have become hurricanes -- in an average season five storms would have reached hurricane strength by now -- and most storms have been short-lived and have largely steered clear of land.

Capital Weather Gang hurricane expert Greg Postel says a major late-season surge in storm activity doesn't seem likely.

"Conditions may allow for some tropical development later this month," Postel said. "But the window of opportunity is rapidly closing on our hurricane season."



Satellite image of Hurricane Bill on Aug. 19. At the time, Bill was a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. To date, Bill is the strongest and longest-lasting (Aug. 15-24) storm of a weak 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Courtesy NASA.

A telling statistic of this year's lack of tropical firepower is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, an overall measure of tropical season activity based on frequency, duration and intensity of storms. The index for the North Atlantic is about 50% below average for the season so far.

And if that's too technical for you, here's another indicator of inactivity, courtesy the hurricane blog of former National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield: The total number of NHC aircraft missions for 2009 was 33 as of Oct. 7, compared with an average of 130 in each of the previous five years.

Tropical experts credit El Nino with fostering an environment that has been more hostile to hurricane formation than anticipated -- preseason forecasts were for a near- to slightly above-average number of storms. El Nino, the periodic warming of the ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, creates winds over the Atlantic that change direction and speed with height and tend to rip storms apart, or prevent them from forming in the first place.

An abundance of dry air over the Atlantic has also hampered storm development, forecasters say.

An editorial in the Times-Picayune called the quiet hurricane season "a blessing for Louisiana." The Gulf Coast has been particularly barren of tropical weather, with the few threats to the U.S. mainland that have materialized focused mainly on the Atlantic coast.

Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for the Weather Underground, says the lack of hurricane activity is a welcome break after a busy 2008 season, which saw 16 named storms and eight hurricanes, both above the averages of 10 and six, respectively. More than 1,000 deaths worldwide and over $40 billion in damages were attributed to the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. To date, damages for the 2009 season are estimated at only $500 million with 15 fatalities.

"The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things."

Jeff Berardelli, a meteorologist for WFOR-TV in Miami, has experienced that same conflicting dynamic firsthand.

"As a person living in Miami I am more than grateful that no hurricanes have come our way," Berardelli said. "As a meteorologist it has been kind of boring."

With under two months remaining in hurricane season, which officially ends Nov. 30, forecasters and organizations such as the Red Cross warn this is no time for residents of hurricane-prone areas to get complacent.

"It should be quieter than we're used to, but I think we'll still get at least one or two more named storms," Masters said. "I give a 40% chance we'll get a hurricane in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dang. Sounds like a trip to another NWS office is in order...I have found them to be rather open to visitors if you just ask nicely.

Call or go by earlier in the day and set it up and I'll bet they have no problem with you coming back for the launch at 0 Z.


Yeah, they definitely said they like visitors, just not during severe weather, etc. the closest one that does launches is in Lincoln, Ill.
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks, I posted a link to more, but yeah, that would definitely be really cool if you could do that


Maybe not with a kid going to College next Fall but I'll cross that bridge next year..Lol
170. xcool
tornadodude :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Maybe not with a kid going to College next Fall but I'll cross that bridge next year..Lol


yeah lol I had a great time there
any advice!?! (don't do it!?! study prep?)

I submitted my application to MS State this am, hoping that if things go right for once...I'll start classes in January in their Meteorology (OMP) program. I'm starting completely over at 39!
All is quiet in the tropics. The GFS, GEFS and EWP show an upwrad phase coming into the basin, albeit at varying degrees. The GFS is most aggressive and has the most unlikely solution. The EWP and GEFS show moderate phase coming in which is more likely:

boy, if there was cash for clunker 2009 systems, we'd be wealthy people.
92L did not bring any flooding rains to Trinidad. Isolated heavy stuff, but none of it for long enough to cause probs.
Now Caracas may have a different experience from this. Will need to monitor the rainfall along the coast there.
"The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things."

He does read the blog!

Lol. Hi everyone.
Caracas pressure now-
29.75 or 1007.3 falling!
Orange, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 13 sec ago
Overcast
67 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 65 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 20 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)

My teeth are chattering. :) Nice to give the AC a break.

Of course we didn't get away clean.

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor
drainage areas in...
Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Port Neches... Port Arthur... Nome...
Nederland... Hamshire... Groves... Central Gardens... Beaumont...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Vidor... Mauriceville... Bridge City...

* until 330 PM CDT

* at 1237 PM CDT showers and thunderstorms are moving through the
the Golden Triangle. One to 2 inches of rain has fallen over the
past hour. Also... rainfall has been intense at times... ranging from
1 to 2 inches per hour.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Additional rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches are possible over the
next 2 hours.

Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in
automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water
covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they
appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep
vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded roads make the
smart choice... turn around... dont drown.

nice the front just pass here with very heavy rain and wind gusts to 40-45 mph also temp he was around 90 now its at 70 wow what change indeed!
GFS 384hr Shear

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
184. xcool



Looking at the Siesmic maps for the past week.
Not one tremor BELOW magnitude 4 for a long time.
This is most unusual. Usually there are dozens of 2's and 3's with the occasional 4, and a rare above 4.
Seems like we have a bad case of the trembles.
Which is a good thing. Pressures being released all over the place without building up to a catastrophe.
But strange stuff...
186. xcool
btwntx08 oh wow 40.45 mph
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 oh wow 40.45 mph

yep it happened when it was raining hard
now its mucher cooler and very cloudy now but thunder is still a rolling right now
bbl all gots to do some stuff now later xcool and all
190. xcool
bye
Quoting btwntx08:
nice the front just pass here with very heavy rain and wind gusts to 40-45 mph also temp he was around 90 now its at 70 wow what change indeed!


That was some strong winds! It gusted through here apparently but not that stroong. I must've slept through it. Long night with a sick kid. She's 19 but when she don't feel good she's Mama's baby. Lol. Any other time I hardly see her. Little brat. :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
117 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.AVIATION...A BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
PUSHING OUTFLOWS OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE BPT, LCH
AND AEX TERMINAL AREAS. RECENT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 32 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT BPT, 34 KNOTS AT ESF JUST NORTH OF AEX.
Quoting pottery:
Looking at the Siesmic maps for the past week.
Not one tremor BELOW magnitude 4 for a long time.
This is most unusual. Usually there are dozens of 2's and 3's with the occasional 4, and a rare above 4.
Seems like we have a bad case of the trembles.
Which is a good thing. Pressures being released all over the place without building up to a catastrophe.
But strange stuff...


We have not had any decent little ones..I am starting to get a bit worried here.
Quoting btwntx08:
now its mucher cooler and very cloudy now but thunder is still a rolling right now


I guess SFL will be the last to bid farewell to the steamy days. Heat index 103 today with no end in sight. I can't wait for that first chill.
My Latest Local Forecast for Everett,PA at 3:00PM

xfred like little spin out there with xhenri looks stationary this afernoon
I've notice a new invest forming 32W- 9NL, WITHIN the ITCZ, any, thoughts? I know this is the month of Oct. very rarely anything to form so far away,
Quoting futuremet:
GFS 384hr Shear

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

That shear pattern looks like something you would see in November, not the first week or two of October.
198. xcool
BAD WEATHER HEAD THIS WAY!
199. xcool





Yay! - We'll be getting some much-needed rain here in the Bay Area next week.
Any chances of something forming coming off of Hondurus.


Are they saying anything on this feature in the western Caribbean, or is it just a normal flare-up. I see another feature in the mid-Atlantic I shal post next. The blog was getting a little quiet, so I thought I would post at least a picture.


Here is the other one. I would imagine the mid-Atlantic is still to hostile for anything to form this far out. Looks like a bad Van Gogh painting.
Quoting xcool:
BAD WEATHER HEAD THIS WAY!
Where ?
Quoting Orcasystems:


We have not had any decent little ones..I am starting to get a bit worried here.


another 5.3, same region, about thirty minutes ago. Pretty sad when we look at the fives and think, oh that's not so bad.
post 192, Orca.
Are you contemplating going to bed wearing a hardhat ?The image is disturbing...
LOL
Quoting aquak9:


another 5.3, same region, about thirty minutes ago. Pretty sad when we look at the fives and think, oh that's not so bad.
Not so bad when it is the only one but when it is one after the other that is a horse of a different color altogether.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T0919)
3:00 AM JST October 10 2009
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 18:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (998 hPa) located at 20.4N 142.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.9N 142.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.9N 142.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 23.5N 142.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER MELOR (T0918)
45.0ºN 156.0ºE - 984 hPa

Subject: Developed Low In Sea Around The Kurils
looks like the area near honduras might be our next invest as it moves NNW over the next 24hrs
211. viman
Can everyone say POOF!!!! lol
been looking at the USGS maps real hard the past week or so -who hasn't been- and seems like all the majors in Cally have pinged a little, too.

Whittier, Elsinore, San Jacinto, for some reason the San Jacinto has always worried me more than the San Andreas. But they've all had some direct activity in the past week- minor, but almost right on the fault lines, not 20-30 miles away.
stillaiting... Someone earlier said little to know chance of development? Look pretty good to me at this point.
guys the possibility of something forming in the NW carib is high have a look

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys the possibility of something forming in the NW carib is high hav a look

I don't like the looks of it and have unfond memories of Paloma which formed in that same area last year.
Quoting pottery:
post 192, Orca.
Are you contemplating going to bed wearing a hardhat ?The image is disturbing...
LOL


We are sitting on the Andreas Fault, among others.. not even a twinge yet.. something has to let go sometime :)
snore
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't like the looks of it and have unfond memories of Paloma which formed in that same area last year.

that is why I am keeping a close on it looking at the sat from lunch till now and I see something of a spin do you and yesterday I went to the airport and I saw the plane you guys where talking about
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "PEPENG" continues to move away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #39
=======================
At 5:00 a.m PhST, Tropical Depression Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.2N 118.1E or 240 kms west southwest of Vigan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 kts)

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.La Union
2.Western Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.

The USA has a built in force field this year when it comes to tropical cyclones!
Hades, it is possible that Parma could be one of the longest lived WPAC systems in history

Already been around since September 26th
Quoting futuremet:
GFS 384hr Shear

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Future is there any spin going on with that convection around Hunduras and SW Carribean?
It appears that a low is rapidly forming as it exits Honduras and heads NW in an area favorable fop development. Is another Wilma trying to form?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It appears that a low is rapidly forming as it exits Honduras and heads NW in an area favorable fop development. Is another Wilma trying to form?
is it closed yet?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It appears that a low is rapidly forming as it exits Honduras and heads NW in an area favorable fop development. Is another Wilma trying to form?
Bite your tongue
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Bite your tongue
the residents of the gulf coast are going to have a problem on there hand if this AOI is doing what i think it is?
Quoting stormsurge39:
is it closed yet?
Doesn't appear to be closed yet. Are any models picking up on it? This area is famous for development of Oct. storms!
Quoting stormsurge39:
the residents of the gulf coast are going to have a problem on there hand if this AOI is doing what i think it is?


Their are NO threats to anyone in the Basin..nor are any forecasted.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Doesn't appear to be closed yet. Are any models picking up on it? This area is famous for development of Oct. storms!
I dont think so this happening quick!! Weve beeb told to watch this area since the begginning of October!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

that is why I am keeping a close on it looking at the sat from lunch till now and I see something of a spin do you and yesterday I went to the airport and I saw the plane you guys where talking about
wunderkid/ stormwatcher.I just reviewed Storm W's post # 62 (his update for today) mentions the disturbance off Honduras/Nicaragua showing possibility of future formation.I'd imagine he'd have a recent update on it at the end of the day
IMO Patrap, Not trying to alarm anyone!
Not too familiar with the naming conventions of JTWC but was Nepartak named? Looking at the previous advisories and it never got above 30kts but all references I see to it (JTWC, NRL, CIMSS, etc) are calling it Nepartak.
wunderkid/ stormwatcherCI, I've been watching that area off Honduras,looks menacing.
235. unf97
StormW stated earlier today in his update blog the AOI off the coast of Honduras. The area certainly has become more concentrated during this afternoon as it drifts NW. StormW mentioned that it is possible this AOI may get into the GOM in the next 2-3 days. Conditions appear conducive for development if it stays intact after interaction over land. It is an area worth watching for sure.
Ive watched alot of storms this year and i am probably wrong, that convection in the SW Carribean looks likes its forming a low.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive watched alot of storms this year and i am probably wrong, that convection in the SW Carribean looks likes its forming a low.

I agree 13.5N/81.5W moving NNW. Do you see the same?
238. 786
hmmm the convection off Honduras def. raising some alarm bells. Looks like its up to no good. Systems in the region, can go from a low to a hurricane in a couple days by.
Quoting stormsurge39:
the residents of the gulf coast are going to have a problem on there hand if this AOI is doing what i think it is?
Shear is low in the Gulf for the 1st time in months! SSTs are still relatively high. Will a strong front move deep into the Gulf and steer this NW. Latest forecast has it stalling out like the last few.
California is having a bunch of tremors as of late.
MAP 2.5 2009/10/09 20:47:18 39.602 -121.549 0.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/09 19:28:09 36.355 -117.844 3.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/09 15:46:46 40.306 -124.474 16.3 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.8 2009/10/09 10:34:14 40.368 -125.036 0.3 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.3 2009/10/09 04:25:05 36.398 -117.864 9.2 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Shear is low in the Gulf for the 1st time in months! SSTs are still relatively high. Will a strong front move deep into the Gulf and steer this NW. Latest forecast has it stalling out like the last few.
As much as i love hurricanes i hope the AOI does not form and get in the GOM!IMO
Nice article in the Washington Post Dr. Jeff.
Sometimes with reporters you never know what you might get, but I think it reads well.
area in sw carb. movin wnw into nw carb should be nothing to worry about at the moment as land interaction should keep it in check and prevent any further dev of this feature

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
area in sw carb. movin wnw into nw carb should be nothing to worry about at the moment as land interaction should keep it in check and prevent any further dev of this feature

for how long?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
area in sw carb. movin wnw into nw carb should be nothing to worry about at the moment as land interaction should keep it in check and prevent any further dev of this feature

NHC has no AOI currently. They are obviously not interested in the West Caribbean disturbance.
Good evening all
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all
whats your take AOI in SW Carribean?
You know its a slow season when we are watching the USGS site for Earthquakes...

Orca - Yeah - I'd be worried too, one side of your plate is rocking and you aren't moving. All that stored energy has to go somewhere at one point.
Quoting stormsurge39:
whats your take AOI in SW Carribean?


Upper diffluent flow east of an upper low spinning just south of Guatemala is aiding the development shower and thunderstorm activity of a tropical wave near 84W. The featured maybe near northwestward or wnwrd between this upper low and the deep layer ridge to its northwest. Interaction/proximity with land should slow any development. The system is current under 20-30 knots of shear due to the upper low. There is some surface convergence so convection along the wave is not entirely diffluent based - either on its own, or lifting orographically by the mountains and daytime heating.

12 hours old , but strong winds in the SW Caribbean.
Quoting Weather456:


Upper diffluent flow east of an upper low spinning just south of Guatemala is aiding the development shower and thunderstorm activity of a tropical wave near 84W. The featured maybe near northwestward between this upper low and the deep layer ridge to its northwest. Interaction/proximity with land should slow any development
thanks what do feel like once past land?
252. P451
Quoting stormsurge39:
thanks what do feel like once past land?


time over water is limited so it might have a shot if it can escape the upper low. I also added a few things:

Upper diffluent flow east of an upper low spinning just south of Guatemala is aiding the development shower and thunderstorm activity along a tropical wave near 84W. The featured maybe near northwestward or wnwrd between this upper low and the deep layer ridge to its northwest. Interaction/proximity with land should slow any development. The system is current under 20-30 knots of shear due to the upper low. There is some surface convergence so convection along the wave is not entirely diffluent based - either on its own, or lifting orographically by the mountains and daytime heating.
456 which way is the wave movin?
Anybody have a link to honduras radar?
256. P451
Lower Convergence



Upper Divergence



Vort 850mb



Vort 500mb

233. timtrice 9:49 PM GMT on October 09, 2009:
Not too familiar with the naming conventions of JTWC but was Nepartak named? Looking at the previous advisories and it never got above 30kts but all references I see to it (JTWC, NRL, CIMSS, etc) are calling it Nepartak.


Japan Meteorological Agency names the system not the JTWC
sounds like its not what i thought. I think im starting to have storm rebound! LOL
259. P451
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Anybody have a link to honduras radar?


They don't have one.

Tropical Radars

World Radars
Quoting Weather456:


time over water is limited so it might have a shot if it can escape the upper low. I also added a few things:

Upper diffluent flow east of an upper low spinning just south of Guatemala is aiding the development shower and thunderstorm activity along a tropical wave near 84W. The featured maybe near northwestward or wnwrd between this upper low and the deep layer ridge to its northwest. Interaction/proximity with land should slow any development. The system is current under 20-30 knots of shear due to the upper low. There is some surface convergence so convection along the wave is not entirely diffluent based - either on its own, or lifting orographically by the mountains and daytime heating.
thanks for the clear up!
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 which way is the wave movin?


the wave is over CA moving west. It only appears to be moving north becuz the convection along the wave is being skewed cyclonically around the upper low. In these situations what would happen is that a piece of energy from the tropical wave is left back over the NW Caribbean Sea and if conditions are right they develop.
Quoting superpete:
wunderkid/ stormwatcher.I just reviewed Storm W's post # 62 (his update for today) mentions the disturbance off Honduras/Nicaragua showing possibility of future formation.I'd imagine he'd have a recent update on it at the end of the day
Thanks for the info. Knows that is an area to watch clesly this time of year and a little too close for comfort.
Quoting stormpetrol:
wunderkid/ stormwatcherCI, I've been watching that area off Honduras,looks menacing.
I agree. Nasty looking. Gotta keep an eye on it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
area in sw carb. movin wnw into nw carb should be nothing to worry about at the moment as land interaction should keep it in check and prevent any further dev of this feature

I hope you are right.
I dont how far north it will get - deep layer ridging and anticyclone remains sprawled across the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic Ocean. If anything, the set-up looks more west than north over the upcoming 5 days.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Japan Meteorological Agency names the system not the JTWC


That further demonstrates my unfamiliarity but doesn't answer the question.

Was Nepartak named even while a depression? What's the criteria?
Quoting Weather456:


the wave is over CA moving west. It only appears to be moving north becuz the convection along the wave is being skewed cyclonically around the upper low. In these situations what would happen is that a piece of energy from the tropical wave is left back over the NW Caribbean Sea and if conditions are right they develop.
gotcha, see i thought we had a bite there. Thanks alot for given me the depressed tropical storm blues again!! LOL
Juan was a lifter that formed in 85.



October can bring the frays too.

History teaches that well.








Hurricane Juan near peak intensity
Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T0919)
6:00 AM JST October 10 2009
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (998 hPa) located at 20.7N 142.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.6N 142.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 22.9N 142.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 23.5N 142.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

--
timtrice the criteria is the same.. has to be 35 knots.
Hi guys,
does anyone have the problem of not being able to post pictures on the blog? I do not have the "buttons" that say italic, bold, or image. I have read all the tips, wikihelp and can not figure it out. Any help is great.

thanks!
If one was to take a look at the WV you would see how deep the ridge is. A large area of dry air enveloped within anticyclonic flow covers the area from 90W to 55W north of the Greater Antilles with the remnants of Henri on the periphery moving due west, almost slightly south thereof. A frontal boundary remains stationary along the Gulf Coast from the Bay of Campeche to the South-Central USA.
Quoting Weather456:
If one was to take a look at the WV you would see how deep the ridge is. A large area of dry air enveloped within anticyclonic flow covers the area from 90W to 55W north of the Greater Antilles with the remnants of Henri on the periphery moving due west, almost slightly south thereof. A frontal boundary remains stationary along the Gulf Coast from the Bay of Campeche to the South-Central USA.
im sorry you got me what was your point?
274. P451
36 Hour Loop - IR Enchanced.

Quoting WaterWitch11:
Hi guys,
does anyone have the problem of not being able to post pictures on the blog? I do not have the "buttons" that say italic, bold, or image. I have read all the tips, wikihelp and can not figure it out. Any help is great.

thanks!


what browser are you running?
Quoting Weather456:
If one was to take a look at the WV you would see how deep the ridge is. A large area of dry air enveloped within anticyclonic flow covers the area from 90W to 55W north of the Greater Antilles with the remnants of Henri on the periphery moving due west, almost slightly south thereof. A frontal boundary remains stationary along the Gulf Coast from the Bay of Campeche to the South-Central USA.


I was a bit skeptical that you forecast all these systems to turn back west like Erika, Fred and now Henri, I was thinking this pattern is too repititive, but now I see that you were correct. Why is this the case this year?
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Hi guys,
does anyone have the problem of not being able to post pictures on the blog? I do not have the "buttons" that say italic, bold, or image. I have read all the tips, wikihelp and can not figure it out. Any help is great.

thanks!

Depends on your Browser, Internet Explorer & Firefox has those features , but google chrome doesn't even though I find it a faster browser for me.
Will Nepartek follow the same as Melor and track to the West Coast?
Face it. This season has been over for sometime now. Everything is being torn apart. Shear dominates the Atlantic this season and I really doubt it is going to all the sudden let up. There is more shear present in the months of October and November and dry sinking air. This is not an ordinary El Nino year.
Quoting stormsurge39:
im sorry you got me what was your point?


If one was to take a look at the WV you would see how deep the ridge is. A large area of dry air enveloped within anticyclonic flow covers the area from 90W to 55W north of the Greater Antilles with the remnants of Henri on the periphery moving due west, almost slightly south thereof. A frontal boundary remains stationary along the Gulf Coast from the Bay of Campeche to the South-Central USA.
281. P451
Quoting Weather456:
If one was to take a look at the WV you would see how deep the ridge is. A large area of dry air enveloped within anticyclonic flow covers the area from 90W to 55W north of the Greater Antilles with the remnants of Henri on the periphery moving due west, almost slightly south thereof. A frontal boundary remains stationary along the Gulf Coast from the Bay of Campeche to the South-Central USA.


Quoting stormsurge39:
im sorry you got me what was your point?


Strong High forced ex92L to basically go farther inland!
Quoting stormpetrol:

Depends on your Browser, Internet Explorer & Firefox has those features , but google chrome doesn't even though I find it a faster browser for me.


oh my god thank you, I open it in firefox and it worked!!!
284. P451
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Hi guys,
does anyone have the problem of not being able to post pictures on the blog? I do not have the "buttons" that say italic, bold, or image. I have read all the tips, wikihelp and can not figure it out. Any help is great.

thanks!


Sounds like a JavaScript problem. You need to update your browser to the latest version and you need to update Java to the latest version.

If from there no luck you can do it manually using the proper coding.



285. xcool





Quoting AtlantaMET:


I was a bit skeptical that you forecast all these systems to turn back west like Erika, Fred and now Henri, I was thinking this pattern is too repititive, but now I see that you were correct. Why is this the case this year?


we had a quick succession of troughs in the upper westerlies, and when this occurs, it makes it harder for recurvature since, the trough only last about 1-2 day and ridging rebuilds thereafter.

Another reason is that the systems were pulled north when they were reasonable deep but they were pulled into a region of high wind shear near 20N which ripped them to threads. They became shallow swirls which were harder to be influence by troughs in the upper layer westerlies, rather they drifted west in the easterlies south of the subtropical ridge.

This applies to Ana, Erika, Fred, TD 8 and Henri.
287. xcool
Issued by The National Weather Service
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
5:48 pm CDT, Fri., Oct. 9, 2009

... STRONG GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA...

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUST FRONT FROM A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA THROUGH 530 PM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS GUST FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE GUSTY WINDS
Quoting RitaEvac:
Winter showing its face in the rockies and plains
Summer showing it's Butt here in Fla.!!
290. xcool
291. xcool
North at 21.0 mph
29.87 in here in slidell la
Come on, cool. I'll take rain over hot.


New Orleans tourist from Minneapolis on her way to being a sidewalk blob:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T0919)
6:00 AM JST October 10 2009
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (998 hPa) located at 20.7N 142.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.6N 142.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 22.9N 142.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 23.5N 142.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

--
timtrice the criteria is the same.. has to be 35 knots.


Ok, I'll assume this is the latest advisory. But, when I was writing an article for my site it had the name in parentheses just as Parma, Melor, etc., but the winds were still listed as 30kts. It caught my eye so I went back and looked at previous advisories and never up till that point had Nepartak become a storm.

It seems to me they decided at some point it had garnered enough substance to become a storm. And, perhaps there was a special advisory or update I missed? The advisory you posted isn't the one I was looking at while writing.

Just curious and a bit confused
One can see the Gust front blowing thru NOLA now..just passed here and the T-storms are on my heels now.

Quoting Weather456:


That ridge is supposed to break down over the next 3 days.
This a good measurement of the winds associated, measured earlier today.

(In the Gulf east of Galveston)

Speed:


Direction swing:
297. IKE
208 more of these after this one and it's the end of the season...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Wow.. it is dead today :(
guys it's still there look

302. xcool




Got kinda breezy here while ago...

THE BEAUMONT PORT ARTHUR CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 9 2009...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 35 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (350)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 54 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (10)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.7

304. xcool
homelesswanderer oh wowww
305. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Got kinda breezy here while ago...

THE BEAUMONT PORT ARTHUR CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 9 2009...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 35 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (350)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 54 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (10)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.7



See...you got hit by tropical storm force winds and nothing was ever designated or named.

Cold front Bubba came through.

I just had about 1/2-3/4 of an inch of rain.
Quoting IKE:


See...you got hit by tropical storm force winds and nothing was ever designated or named.

Cold front Bubba came through.

I just had about 1/2-3/4 of an inch of rain.


Lol. Bubba brought us more rain and wind than Eduoard. Only thing is he's coming back! Sigh.

THE REPRIEVE...AND THE COOL AIR...WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AMID THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
307. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Bubba brought us more rain and wind than Eduoard. Only thing is he's coming back! Sigh.

THE REPRIEVE...AND THE COOL AIR...WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AMID THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.


I was looking at the 12Z NOGAPS, 12Z ECMWF and 18Z GFS. They all show a strong low pressure system forming the end of next week in the plains and heading to the east coast. The strongest trough I've seen this fall.

Maybe the models will be right for a change.
Wow! Blog virtually non-existent.
Thanks to all who commented on my Mushroom cloud over Cape Coral....
This is a friend of mine who took this one....
Quoting Weather456:


that looks like pre wilma
Quoting Buhdog:
Thanks to all who commented on my Mushroom cloud over Cape Coral....
Beautiful
Here is the one i took

Quoting Buhdog:
Here is the one i took

This one is beautiful too.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Wow.. it is dead today :(
I LIKE IKE !!!!!
thanks storm..... they are the same cloud...but two totally different pics. I bet this is what a nuclear bomb looks like
I must say i have never felt it so hot on this late into oct in sfla....terrible. My buddy gettin married outside tom.....gonna be murder
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 101. South wind between 5 and 8 mph.
Quoting Buhdog:
I must say i have never felt it so hot on this late into oct in sfla....terrible. My buddy gettin married outside tom.....gonna be murder
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 101. South wind between 5 and 8 mph.
Temps around the same here. The humidity is terrible. Such a small island and last night half had rain and half had none.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Temps around the same here. The humidity is terrible. Such a small island and last night half had rain and half had none.
Has anyone heard from Floodman? Where is he when we need him?!
Quoting TheFutureMet:
Has anyone heard from Floodman? Where is he when we need him?!
A lot of folks seem to be missing tonight. Wonder if it being Friday has anything to do with it. Maybe out partying. LOL
"The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things."
(quoting JM from the Washington Post article.)
So Dr. Master does read his blog...
What I find amazing is Melor hitting northern California.
Why do I still think of the earth as flat? hmmmmm.
92L ran aground.
In a interview last year,..Dr. Jeff Masters stated he reads about 5% of Blog Posts in His entry on average.
Link
Above link from San Francisco NWS of TY Melor and check this out, INTERESTING READ~~

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
430 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SODAR DATA FROM SFO INDICATED MARINE LAYER HAS
THINNED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 1700 FT.
LATEST VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE
SCOURED OUT THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE ENTIRE CENTRAL COAST SHORELINE
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH LEFT JUST SOUTH OF THE MENDICINO COUNTY
LINE. NAM AND OUR OFFICE WRF DO NOT INDICATE THIS CLEARING AND SHOW
OVER 2.5 MB ON SHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS
LIKE STS HAVE REMAINED RATHER COOL TODAY WITH THE TEMP NOT HAVING
CLIMBED OUT OF THE 50S YET. SO COOLING DOWN THINGS A BIT WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WELL ADVISED BUT STILL DIDN`T COOL
THINGS ENOUGH IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
TO COME BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH ONSHORE GRADIENT PICKING BACK UP
THIS EVENING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY AS FAR AS
WEATHER WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CLEARING BACK TO THE
BEACHES BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S NEAR THE OCEAN
WITH 60S NEAR THE BAY AND SOME 70S WELL INLAND. SOME LOW 80S
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.

SOME FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN AK AND THE WESTERLIES START TO BREAK
IN UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S AND 60S EXCEPT FAR
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY. MONDAY BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER SITUATION. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AS THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES BY
SUNSET MONDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FROM MARIN TO SANTA CRUZ.
RAIN WILL BE INCREASING OVER NIGHT MONDAY AS A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM APPROACHES THE COAST.

EXTENDED...12Z MODELS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BACK IN SYNC WITH A
VERY WET AND WINDY TUESDAY SETTING UP. THE KEY FEATURES OF THESE
EVENT IS THE HEAVY RAIN...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...AND WIND...
WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR VERY HIGH WINDS IS STILL NOT AS CLEAR. THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND FORECAST PWS FOR THIS EVENT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
AND NEAR 5 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE 30 YEAR NCEP
REANALYSIS. PWS ARE STILL APPROACHING 2 IN WHERE LOW LEVEL
PARCELS BEGIN TO LIFT UP TOWARD THE COAST AND 925 MB WINDS ARE STILL
NEAR 70 KTS FOR TUESDAY.
AS NOTED IN THE AM DISCUSSION...THIS IS A
VERY POTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POISED RIGHT AT THE CENTRAL COAST
AND MUST BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR WHEREVER IT MIGHT LINGER
WILL RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN WITH THEIR
RATHER COARSE RESOLUTION ARE FORECASTING A LARGE AREA OF 5 IN OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. USING THE RHEA MODEL RUN BY THE CNRFC OUT THROUGH
5 DAYS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWS UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 IN OVER THE NORTH BAY
MNTS...AND 6 TO 8 IN IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND NORTHERN SANTA LUCIA RANGE
FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO RATHER HIGH RAIN RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME RAPID RUNOFF GIVEN HOW DRY THE GROUND IS THUS NOT ABLE TO
ABSORB THE RAIN THAT QUICKLY. RECENT BURN SCARS FROM LAST SUMMER AND
THIS YEAR WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS. LOW LAND FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS WILL ALSO BE
WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA. VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH OILY ROADWAYS FROM A LONG SUMMER OF DRIVING
AND AN ABUNDANCE OF LEAVES STILL ON THE TREES READY TO BLOW OFF AND
LITER THE HIGHWAYS.


WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT LEAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THANKS TO MIKE VOSS FROM SAN JOSE STATE FOR PROVIDING
SOME DATA TO OUR OFFICE ON SOME HISTORICAL WINDSTORMS. AS MENTIONED
THIS AM...JAN 4-5 2008 AND DEC 12 1995 ARE AT THE TOP OF THE LIST
FOR WIND EVENTS OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS. IN THESE STORMS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE OVER 30 MB FROM SANTA BARBARA TO ARCADIA. THE EURO
AND GFS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ARE SHOWING ABOUT 22 MB. THIS PUTS
THIS EVENT IN THE TOP TEN EVENTS OF THE PAST 30 YEARS. WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE HILLS ARE
LIKELY. ONE THING THAT REALLY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IS WHETHER A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT AND DEEPENS AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE NORTHERN CA AND OREGON COAST. THE ECMWF HAS HINTED AT
THIS ON SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WOULD DO TWO THINGS. IT WOULD SLOW THE
FRONT DOWN AND FOCUS THE HEAVY RAIN WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS AND THUS WIND SPEEDS. THESE ARE THE TYPES OF DETAILS THAT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT WILL BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS DRY OUT BY LATE WED INTO THURSDAY WITH EVEN SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPS WILL WARM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...
AT LEAST FROM THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

Quoting Buhdog:
Here is the one i took



Did you feel the heat and shock wave from that? :)
Quoting Patrap:
In a interview last year,..Dr. Jeff Masters stated he reads about 5% of Blog Posts in His entry on average.

Hi Patrap. I think he's underestimating.
Anyway, thanks for the heads up on the Cajun Navy. Been thinkin' of them all week. Heroes are those who respond to the moment and do what's necessary and important. If you keep what's important at the center of your day then everything will be alright.
img src="" alt="" />
Okay, here's my Friday night entertainment.
Not just remembering Katrina, but all the work we have to do to help the children of our country...Deal with it. And make it better.
'Wake up Everybody'
This is good stuff.
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Patrap. I think he's underestimating.
Anyway, thanks for the heads up on the Cajun Navy. Been thinkin' of them all week. Heroes are those who respond to the moment and do what's necessary and important. If you keep what's important at the center of your day then everything will be alright.


Hes a very busy Guy during the season and dosent have time for Blogging cept for writing and posting his entries.

But as you may see on some entries,he will respond to questions asked in the Blog itself.

The overall Blogs are run by a whole group that oversees them.
He stays out of the Bickering and well,..has more important duties.


I've been fortunate enough to speak with Him on occasion and Hes a very Nice fella and and well,..its always a pleasure to speak with Him.

During the Portlight start-up last September,and on tele-conferences as well,he always is a good Listener and adds input to the discussions as well.

One day,Im sure we will meet and I look forward to that one day. He and his Family arent strangers to NOLA ,as he visits with his family from time to time.



On the "Cajun Navy",..I didnt here of the term till well,months later in a interview I did post Katrina here.

And Having that distinguished endearing term attached,..is a Honor I hold as proud as My USMC tour.



pcoal dan....

i duct taped my door cracks
I play the trumpet
331. JRRP
Quoting Buhdog:
Here is the one i took


looks like atomic bomb
332. BtnTx
It is finally a pleasant 60F degrees in Baytown Tx (Houston Area) and this is the 1st cool front this fall and it is very welcome!
Sheesh.. I have seen it livelier in here in January

Blog Update
Quoting IKE:


I was looking at the 12Z NOGAPS, 12Z ECMWF and 18Z GFS. They all show a strong low pressure system forming the end of next week in the plains and heading to the east coast. The strongest trough I've seen this fall.

Maybe the models will be right for a change.


) please please please Please let that materialize!

If not then I'll put a bullet through my head(figuratively speaking)!
The NHC knows thier stuff! I know thier not perfect but you got to admit they have done well with a very unpredictable season.
336. BtnTx
Quoting stormsurge39:
The NHC knows thier stuff! I know thier not perfect but you got to admit they have done well with a very unpredictable season.

Maybe the NHC knows THEIR stuff (spelling!)
Quoting BtnTx:

Maybe the the NHC knows THEIR stuff (spelling!)
your kidding RIGHT?
338. BtnTx
Quoting stormsurge39:
your kidding RIGHT?

I was just complaining about your mispelling
Quoting BtnTx:

I was just complaining about your mispelling
yea i know! I dont know why that goes thru me like it did when my last wife would do it! Guess thats why shes my last wife and for many other reasons!LOL
340. BtnTx
Quoting stormsurge39:
yea i know! I dont know why that goes thru me like it did when my last wife would do it! Guess thats why shes my last wife and for many other reasons!LOL

No worries! I am glad we have no storms to worry about at this time
Quoting BtnTx:

No worries! I am glad we have no storms to worry about at this time
hopefully it stays that way.
Anybody here?
This is weird
Anyway, Does anybody else think the energy from the wave at 85W will get in the BOC?
345. BtnTx
Quoting stormsurge39:
This is weird

Nobody is here and I am going to bed myself!
Quoting Orcasystems:



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments


hey orca,
the top graph is great, I saw it for the first time this morning. it was iris something?
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link
Above link from San Francisco NWS of TY Melor and check this out, INTERESTING READ~~

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
430 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

..

.JAN 4-5 2008 This storm knock out the power in our area for 3 days (not fun) and caused the levee to break in Fernley, Nv where my father lives, some of the streets had 6-7 feet of water in them.
349. P451
Quoting Buhdog:
Thanks to all who commented on my Mushroom cloud over Cape Coral....


If we saw that where I live in NJ we wouldn't be thinking weather....

Quoting WaterWitch11:


hey orca,
the top graph is great, I saw it for the first time this morning. it was iris something?


I have used it for years... it has great links with it also..and you can drill right down to individual reporting sites and incidents.

Seismic Monitor
Quoting Patrap:
Sacramento Levee Risk,a Disaster in waiting

Posted by: Patrap, 10:55 AM CDT on September 30, 2009


this one scares me, when you look at a topograph (spelling) of Ca, it looks like a swimming pool. Engineers are flipping out stating this is our next disaster concerning the levees. So many of them are privately owned and not enforced on maintenance and the "public ones" are not maintained correctly. can't wait to see what your link says.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "PEPENG" has remained almost stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #40
=======================
At 11:00 a.m PhST, Tropical Depression Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.2ºN 117.9ºE or 250 kms northwest of Dagupan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 kts)

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.La Union
2.Western Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
353. xcool





I had a heck of a time finding any AOI's on this side of the Earth :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Anyone here?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone here?


Howdy AussieStorm;
Looks like everyone left. Enjoy your posts. Keep them coming.
I'm going to bed. Its 0250EDT zone. Central FL USA
Quoting peejodo:


Howdy AussieStorm;
Looks like everyone left. Enjoy your posts. Keep them coming.
I'm going to bed. Its 0250EDT zone. Central FL USA

It's 5:50pm Saturday here, and thanks for your kind comment. Typhoon/TS/TD/TS/TD Parma flooding. Hope it works.
358. IKE
From the Birmingham,AL. discussion....

"MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE
MOVE INTO FRI. WILL NEED TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...BUT COULD
BE OUR BEST COLD FRONT SO FAR THIS SEASON. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...A
WET PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART AS BOUNDARIES REMAIN NEAR AND
MOISTURE ABUNDANT."
Quoting IKE:
From the Birmingham,AL. discussion....

"MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE
MOVE INTO FRI. WILL NEED TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...BUT COULD
BE OUR BEST COLD FRONT SO FAR THIS SEASON. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...A
WET PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART AS BOUNDARIES REMAIN NEAR AND
MOISTURE ABUNDANT."

Morning IKE
360. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

Morning IKE


Morning. Gets lonely around here when the Atlantic is in snooze mode.
361. IKE
From the Memphis,TN. extended....

"WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING...THOUGH NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE TO ALLOW FOR MUCH DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE AREA. KEPT MENTION IN HWO...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
BY FRIDAY...APPEARS A VERY COOL AIRMASS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST YET THIS FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. LOWS NEXT
WEEKEND MAY DROP INTO THE 30S."



Mobile,AL.>>>LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WILL CREATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WASH
OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

NO,LA>>>LONG TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. THE FACT THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS NOT IN
QUESTION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH IS. THE STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSE
THE LARGE TROUGH TO DIG ARE JUST MOVING INTO THE 160-170E MERIDION
ALONG ABOUT 40N. THIS FAR OUT OVER THE NORTH PAC. TIMING FOR FROPA
LOOKS TO FALL INTO THE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME WHILE
STRENGTH MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHOWN BY THE GFS. REASON FOR
BOTH OF THESE ISSUES IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE THAT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT CAUSING IT
TO SLOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN A BIT.

Quoting IKE:


Morning. Gets lonely around here when the Atlantic is in snooze mode.

6hrs have gone by and only 6 posts. I guess that's what happens when the tropics are as u said... in snooozzzzzzzzze mode
75*F in Macon, Georgia this morning with what appears to be 100% humidity due here any minute now.
Did anyone see the FBI video from America Samoa of the Tsunami
365. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Did anyone see the FBI video from America Samoa of the Tsunami


Incredible.
Cars and trucks tossed around like little toys.
The last guy on the video saw it coming and really started running towards the bottom of the screen, hope he made it.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Did anyone see the FBI video from America Samoa of the Tsunami


Oh wow! Looked like something out of a horror movie. Unreal!
368. IKE
Houston,Texas long-term...

"MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS LATE WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY. GFS/ENSEMBLE/CANADIAN INDICATES THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROPA WHILE ECMWF SHUNTS THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIRMASS
QUICKLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM SE TX."
"The primary mood is relief, since we certainly needed a break after last year's destructive hurricane season," said Masters, who writes a popular blog on wunderground.com. "The other mood is crabbiness, as the hurricane enthusiasts that find themselves with nothing to track get bored and start arguing [on the blog] about inconsequential things and complaining."

I added a last part there in bold.

But I have to disagree slighlty with that statement as we have had persons here that have been consistent with keeping on topic and debating the important things like Skypony, StormW, and W456. It is the persons that get personal when we have opposite sides of opinions.
Quoting IKE:
Houston,Texas long-term...

"MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS LATE WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY. GFS/ENSEMBLE/CANADIAN INDICATES THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROPA WHILE ECMWF SHUNTS THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIRMASS
QUICKLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM SE TX.
"


UGH! No wonder it barely got an honorable mention from Lake Charles. They were all excited about this front about a week ago. Lol. Don't want to get their hopes up. :)
Good morning Ike, all. It is rather quiet in here. I've been looking at the WU pictures from cool places this morning. Living vicariously. :)
Good morning or good day, Aussie, from Florida. Thank you for posting that video.
Good morning everyone.. thanks for the video Aussie.. scary stuff...
Hi Everyone!
Come visit my blog and answer the questions there. It is a poll about Atlantic season 2009. ~Thanks.
Bobby
It seems like 456 will not update his blog today. I'll try back later.
375. IKE
Massive high-pressure system....

376. P451
Everything looking shut down this AM.

Quoting AtlantaMET:
It seems like 456 will not update his blog today. I'll try back later.
you know a surfer they dissapear when theres waves
Nice slow fall tropical day... They way I like it. (Although it could be COLDER in Miami... The 90F+ days are getting old, with the triple digit heat indexes)

hope everyone is having a nice wkend still something to watch as they move west slowly
In this mornings western atlantic visable sat loop there is a feature just north of due east to Henri. You can see the shear suck the tops.. and the life right out of the thunderstorms in that "band"
From INQUIRER.net

Landslide deaths lift storm toll past 540




PANGASINAN, Philippines
The death toll from two weeks of unprecedented storms across the northern Philippines soared past 540 on Friday after landslides consumed homes and neck-deep floods inundated towns.

At least 181 people were killed in a series of rain-triggered landslides overnight Thursday and on Friday in the Cordillera region, local officials reported.

Meanwhile, the downstream farming plains of Central Luzon were inundated with waters that reached two storeys high after dams in the mountains could not hold the phenomenal amount of water that has fallen on the region.

"The rains in this area are unprecedented," the executive officer of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, Glenn Rabonza, told Agence France-Presse.

"We are stretched, no doubt, but we are responding in the best way we can."

The crisis showed no signs of easing as tropical storm Pepeng (international codename: Parma), responsible for the past week of rains, continued to hover just off Luzon.

In Metro Manila, nearly 300,000 homeless survivors from Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) were packed into evacuation camps following record rains on September 26 that killed at least 337 people.

US troops helping out in the capital extended their relief work to the north on Friday, dispatching helicopters and other rescue equipment, the Filipino military said.

The US embassy announced an extra two million dollars in aid for the Parma victims on top of money and materials donated for the Ondoy operations, while UN humanitarian chief John Holmes is to begin a two-day visit to the country Monday to review relief efforts, the world body said.

The worst of the overnight landslides appeared to be in remote Benguet province, where 120 people were confirmed killed in five towns, said provincial governor Nestor Fongwan.

Another 38 people were confirmed killed in the neighboring mountain resort of Baguio, officials there said.

Across all of the north, the confirmed death toll from the landslides was 181, on top of the 25 people killed earlier by Pepeng.

In the farming region of Pangasinan province to the southwest of the provinces where the landslides occurred, thousands of people were stranded on rooftops in dangerously similar scenes to those in Manila a fortnight ago.

Days of rain from Parma forced authorities to open the gates on five dams, sending water cascading through dozens of towns in Pangasinan, which has a population of 2.5 million people.

"A lot of places cannot be reached by our rubber boats because the current is too strong due to the waters released by San Roque dam," Pangasinan governor Amado Espino said.

"The dam is supposed to be for flood control but now it is so filled it is like it is not there. The water just rushes right through from the mountains to Pangasinan."

The disaster council's Rabonza said about 60 percent of Pangasinan, including about 30 towns, were flooded with waters reaching as high as the second floor of buildings.

In the town of Rosales, neck-high waters swallowed up houses, vehicles, rice fields and even a large shopping mall.

Desperate local officials made urgent pleas for rubber boats and helicopters to rescue those stranded by the floods.

Parma has been hanging over the northern Philippines since initially hitting as a typhoon on October 3.

Parma hit the Philippines exactly one week after tropical storm Ketsana dumped the heaviest rains in more than four decades on Manila.

The government has been overwhelmed by the crisis, which has forced hundreds of thousands of people in Manila and other parts of Luzon into makeshift evacuation centres after losing their homes to the floods.
Quoting Dakster:
Nice slow fall tropical day... They way I like it. (Although it could be COLDER in Miami... The 90F+ days are getting old, with the triple digit heat indexes)

32°C | 27°C 90°F | 80°F East to southeast 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Seas are expected to be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Sun Partly cloudy skies with a few showers and some thunder. 33°C | 27°C 91°F | 80°F Winds will be from the east winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Slight with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Mon Partly cloudy skies with a few showers and some thunder. 33°C | 27°C 91°F | 80°F Winds will be from the east winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Seas are expected to be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Tue Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and some thunder. 33°C | 27°C 91°F | 80°F East winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Slight to moderate with wave heights 2 to 4 feet.
Wed partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and possible thunder; few clouds tonight. 33°C | 26°C 91°F | 79°F Winds will be from the east winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet I know what you mean. Forecast for the Cayman Islands.
Amazing cold air in Montana!!!


SOUTH FORK JUDITH, MT (SFJM8)
Elev: 6300 ft; Latitude: 46.7228; Longitude: -110.4064

Current time: Sat, 10 Oct 6:47 am (MDT)
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 10 Oct 5:53 am (MDT)
Time Temp.
10 Oct 5:53 am -16
Henri is still showing a nice rotation just east of the Turks Islans...Itm still has an identity and is worth monitoring IMO
Henri is still showing a nice rotation just east of the Turks Islans...It still has an identity and is worth monitoring IMO




do you guys see what I see
Quoting portcharlotte:
Henri is still showing a nice rotation just east of the Turks Islans...It still has an identity and is worth monitoring IMO
I noticed that this morning but lacks convection.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:




do you guys see what I see
I see it. Doesn't look like much going on there ATM though.

381. AussieStorm

How sad. That is a nightmare of unimaginable proportions. :( I do feel for those people. I don't even have the words.
Florida is baking with temperatures in NW Charlotte County hitting the mid 90s all this week. I would welcome a swirly breeze from Henri or we will all die of heat stroke!
This is the worst heat I have ever seen in October. I have been in S. Florida for 41 years and never saw anything like this at this time of year.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
32°C | 27°C 90°F | 80°F East to southeast 10 to 15 knots today, .....I know what you mean. Forecast for the Cayman Islands.


yea, but you have the trades...lucky dog..try the same numbers but with wind <5 - grin

Question: why is the "Temperate Zone" (defined as free from extremes) called the Temperate Zone when it has the largest swings in seasonal temperatures - below freezing to 100+ degrees????
StormW....like to hear your take on Henri swirl....It has not totally died IMO at least at this time...
anyway the Remnant of Henri the surface Trough now has a surface low to it

Looks like ex92L might start to move more WNW once it crosses the ABC Islands , still worth watching imo.
Keeping one eye on HenriX
Bar. here is still high & steady
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like ex92L might start to move more WNW once it crosses the ABC Islands , still worth watching imo.

looking at this sat ex henri is getting some convection on the west side of the COC might be trying redeveloping and I see your point on ex 92l just think if both redevelop and 92 moves WNW and henri moves WSW and a Fujiwhara effect happens and that would be in the Western caribbean that just gives me the creeps
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
anyway the Remnant of Henri the surface Trough now has a surface low to it



I noticed Henri's spin was easily seen on sat. Also on earlier map they showed a surface low just on the Mexican coast at the end of the cold front in the gulf. They took the low off but you can still see the spin clearly at whatever level it is. This does concern me if it makes it over the water. Especially if it manages to merge with the energy in west Caribbean. I don't know what the upper levels are like or if everything will be pushed west but the NAM and GFS have been off and on flirting with the idea of spinning something up in the BOC in a few days. Something to watch I guess.
Quoting icepilot:


yea, but you have the trades...lucky dog..try the same numbers but with wind <5 - grin

Question: why is the "Temperate Zone" (defined as free from extremes) called the Temperate Zone when it has the largest swings in seasonal temperatures - below freezing to 100+ degrees????
I don't know but not much "extremes" here. Just goes from HOT to a little less hot. Usually in the winter time we get low 70's at night and once in a while mid 60's but that is not too often.
Anyone want to trade??


Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like ex92L might start to move more WNW once it crosses the ABC Islands , still worth watching imo.
A little flare up there this am too.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
A little flare up there this am too.

and look at ex henri,it is trying to spark and get going
Ex92L seems to be pulling away from the Venezuela coast now and around 35W gaining some convection.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Anyone want to trade??




arn't you guys up/out there were born with raincoats? - spent 6 yrs in Seattle and always thought it funny there were so many religions - but figured a new one was formed every time the sun came out
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ex92L seems to be pulling away from the Venezuela coast now and around 35W gaining some convection.


I would give a better chance there then Henri
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
A little flare up there this am too.
Well spotted. Just east of the Colombian/ Venezuelan border.Shows up well on Nexsat. Although conditions probably not good for development,I note this was the exact area Mitch formed in October '98,a little further west.
Quoting icepilot:


arn't you guys up/out there were born with raincoats? - spent 6 yrs in Seattle and always thought it funny there were so many religions - but figured a new one was formed every time the sun came out


Oh I like that... I am going to borrow that one for the blog :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I like that... I am going to borrow that one for the blog :)


wish I could claim it , but old joke -g
Quoting StormW:


Unless the MJO upward motion we've been waiting on materializes and can bring some abundant moisture...that's all it will be...too much dry air...and the swirl is right in it.





There looks to be a break in the dry air to the west...just north of Cuba
413. P451
Henri remnant

415. P451
Quoting superpete:
Well spotted. Just east of the Colombian/ Venezuelan border.Shows up well on Nexsat. Although conditions probably not good for development,I note this was the exact area Mitch formed in October '98,a little further west.
Boy, a lot of history making hurricanes were spawned in the Caribbean or managed to make their way through the Caribbean. God has really blessed Cayman as far as damage from hurricanes. Yes, I know Ivan was catastrophic but remember all the ones that have passed this way and damages were mostly pretty minimal.
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.


Thanks StormW....
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.
What about Ex92L and possibilities there ? I know, no forecast on the weekend but would really appreciate a few thoughts. TIA
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.


Is the MJO on schedule to arrive in the Atlantic basin and will it be as as strong as advertised?
Quoting portcharlotte:


Is the MJO on schedule to arrive in the Atlantic basin and will it be as as strong as advertised?


This is from 456's blog, he used a combination of the four long-range models, the GFS, EWP, GloSea and the CFS.

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Forecasts for the MJO have recently become inconsistent, with the Empirical Wave Propagation (EWP) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) predicting a modest upward pulse during the next 2 weeks as oppose to the strong upward pulse previously forecasted. The GloSea model is predicting a 60-80% chance of continued below normal precipitation/above-average pressure for the Caribbean basin and a 60-80% chance of above normal rains/below-normal pressure for the Gulf Region. This could be the result of increase frontal activity for the Gulf region but it does not look like the MJO, despite the forecasted upward pulse will have much impact on the Caribbean in the months ahead.
Quoting StormW:


Though not as much, it has to deal with dry air as well. This may move just north of due west for today, then forecast steering would indicate this should make it into the EPAC.
Thanks a lot.
423. P451
ex-92L




Shame...the radar station that would be seeing it has not updated since yesterday. Figures.
I got a wunderful Invite this morning to a very Important event here next Month.




CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 801

Washington, DC 20036-2000





The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at Mardi Gras World

1380 Port of New Orleans Place



2 p.m. Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy



2:15 2:45 p.m. Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile



2:45 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.



4:00 4:30 p.m. The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member, Tulane Disaster Management Leadership Academy; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society



4:30 5:00 p.m. President Obamas Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates



5:00 6:00 p.m. Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives



6:00 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion
Quoting Patrap:
I got a wunderful Invite this morning to a very Important event here next Month.




CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 801

Washington, DC 20036-2000





The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

Congratulations Pat, it just goes to show what a wonderful difference you have made. You will have to tell us what you learned from this invite. If you can attend.
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427. beell
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.


I think it will keep moving west.
:}
Quoting beell:


I think it will keep moving west.
:}
It will move through the Western Bahama,s then northward off the east coast of Florida. :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Boy, a lot of history making hurricanes were spawned in the Caribbean or managed to make their way through the Caribbean. God has really blessed Cayman as far as damage from hurricanes. Yes, I know Ivan was catastrophic but remember all the ones that have passed this way and damages were mostly pretty minimal.
We in Puerto Rico can't complain much either, most of the storms and hurricanes skip us or weaken when they are going to make down fall on us. The last big one we had was George 1998.