WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Quiet in the Atlantic; Karina Forms, Julio Dying in the Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2014

In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Julio, located about 700 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, is nearing its end as high wind shear rips away at it. Julio was a hurricane most of this week in the waters north of Hawaii where no hurricane had ever been recorded before. Ordinarily, hurricanes cannot exist in those waters because of sea surface temperatures that are near 25°C, which is too cold to support a hurricane. However, ocean temperatures have been near 26 - 26.5°C this week, which is about 1°C above average, and warm enough to support a hurricane.


Figure 1. Hurricane Julio in the North Pacific 600 miles north of Hawaii at 21:10 UTC August 13, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Hawaii should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Karina, which formed in the waters south of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Wednesday. Karina is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Friday, and is headed west towards Hawaii. However, none of the computer models are currently predicting the Karina will affect Hawaii, as the storm is expected to become entangled early next week with tropical disturbance 90E, which lies 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. This tropical disturbance could also become a tropical storm this weekend; in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook NHC gave 90E 5-day odds of development of 70%. Karina's formation gives the Eastern Pacific 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricane so far this season, which is well above average. In a typical Eastern Pacific hurricane season, there should have been 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 14.

Quiet in the Atlantic
In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there should have been 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 0 intense hurricanes by August 14. So far this season, we have had 2 named storms (Arthur and Bertha), both of which became hurricanes. The typical formation date of the season's fourth named storm is August 23. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. The next chance for tropical storm formation would appear to be from a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week, but dry air will continue to interfere with development of any potential Atlantic systems for at least the next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting yankees440:


I have to disagree regarding the movie "Into the Storm". I thought the acting and storyline were atrocious. The only part I actually kind of liked was the end of the movie.


They should have gotten a convective specialist to go over some of the really hokey lines. We also just don't miss monster tornado setups in the second decade of the 21'st century as everyone else in the movie story did. I also REALLY did not like the plotline bailing out of the school to try to outrun the storm in school buses. The risk of an utter tragedy as the buses are overtaken (as would happen in real life) is too high. The monster storm moved unrealistically slowly.

It was entertaining for two hours though and I remain glad I didn't choose one of the comic book adaptation movies or the Purge as my other alternatives. I just grabbed a period of quiet at home to take my wife out to a movie away from the teens (none of whom wanted to go)
Quoting 493. georgevandenberghe:



2002 was a hot and very dry summer and early fall. A dramatic transition to cool occurred in mid October.. actually the day I left Ocean City beach the day after Columbus day. December was cold and somewhat snowy with EARLY arctic air the first week.
We had good snows that winter as well!.President day blizzards!.This fall could go both ways.Either become cool early or what until January to really kick off the winter.
Quoting 490. FOREX:



What does the picture from Jaws represent? A fish storm or a killer storm in the making?
it represents Mr. Quint. Jaws= Classic
Quoting ohzone:
Question for weather pros... The historic flood that struck Michigan...were there any weather models that warned of this rainstorm as far as a week before it arrived?
I'm no weather pro but no, there was no forecast seven days in advance of that storm. The general forecast was partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. I'd have to go dig up the severe weather alerts again but, as I remember, most of the flash flood and areal flood warnings were issued when the floods were already happening. You can see the Detriot area NWS report here. Take a look at the radar just before the storms got to Detroit and see if you would have bet the farm a serious flood was about to happen.
Quoting 502. washingtonian115:

We had good snows that winter as well!.President day blizzards!.This fall could go both ways.Either become cool early or what until January to really kick off the winter.


Cool early is my strongly held suspicion for this fall. Think 1976 as the analog year.
Quoting Drakoen:
The models show the western 850mb vort maximum becoming more dominant. it's possible that development will be from the aggregation of vorticity associated with positive vorticity advection from the eastern maxima to the western.
God, I love it when you talk like that. :-)


Certainly not looking like the hurricane that bore the name a lot of people probably thought of when Karina was named..
TV 7 Panama City FL. At the time of this newscast the temperature at Panama City was 22F with a wind chill of 0F.

Quoting 506. sar2401:

God, I love it when you talk like that. :-)

Y'all should set up a marriage date. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:

1962 automatically isn't a good analog because it was La Nina, not El Nino.

I'm looking for years that came on the heels of neutral years. Particularly those that lacked cold biases.
I'm not convinced this isn't headed for a La Nina. That's one of the reasons why I think we see most of our hurricanes in October. There has been so much talk and forecasting of El Nino that it seems like we've intellectually ruled out the possibility of La Nina, or a neutral year at best.
512. FOREX
Quoting 508. GTstormChaserCaleb:

TV 7 Panama City FL. At the time of this newscast the temperature at Panama City was 22�F with a wind chill of 0�F.




That TV station is 2 miles from my house.

Quoting 506. sar2401:

God, I love it when you talk like that. :-)
These are desperate times, indeed.
Quoting 504. sar2401:

I'm no weather pro but no, there was no forecast seven days in advance of that storm. The general forecast was partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. I'd have to go dig up the severe weather alerts again but, as I remember, most of the flash flood and areal flood warnings were issued when the floods were already happening. You can see the Detriot area NWS report here. Take a look at the radar just before the storms got to Detroit and see if you would have bet the farm a serious flood was about to happen.


This is what they were thinking for Detroit very early Monday morning (about 3:AM).

"SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELONGATED MID LEVEL WAVE NOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REMAINS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. STRONGEST PIECE OF THIS WAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIOD. THE EXPANDING HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL DRAW THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS INTO THE
REGION...STRENGTHENING WITH TIME AS DEEPER MID LEVEL ASCENT WORKS
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A PERIOD OF SOLID DEFORMATION
FORCING WITHIN THE 18Z TO 03Z WINDOW. THIS EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO
POINT TO AN EXPANDING REGION OF RAINFALL IMPACTING SE MICHIGAN ...
LARGELY CENTERED FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. THE MOIST RESIDENT AIR MASS /PW VALUES 1.5" OR HIGHER/
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EXPANSION IN COVERAGE...AND CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS A HIGHER END POP THROUGH THIS TIME. TIMING A KEY TO THE
DEGREE OF THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY...TEMPERATURES STILL LODGED
PREDOMINATELY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AS OF 08Z SUGGESTING
BENCHMARK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE STILL ATTAINABLE SHOULD THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER NOON. THIS WILL LEAVE A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION.
THE OVERALL SOUNDING PROFILE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH
A DEEP/WARM LAYER. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEFINITIVELY A CONCERN
GIVEN THIS SETUP.

FORCING WILL WANE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION PIVOTS INTO LAKE HURON. ENOUGH SEPARATION APPEARS
TO EXIST BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT INBOUND AND DEEPER MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO
DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. A MOIST/MILD NIGHT AHEAD
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. BOUNDARY LAYER
LIKELY REMAINS TOO MIXED TO PROVIDE A FOG ISSUE.
Quoting 512. FOREX:



That TV station is 2 miles from my house.
That was quite an event, snow flurries were reported as far south as Sarasota.
Quoting JLPR2:
I would like to request 2014 a repeat of H Kyle(2002).



If that track happened people here would need meds. xD
I'm sorry, but we have exceeded our federally mandated limits of Kyles here. You'll have to pick another name.
...KARINA BARELY A HURRICANE...

8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 14
Location: 17.1°N 118.3°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Gonna go into the future a few hours.... We have invest 95L as per the two
HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Karina's structure has degraded significantly since the last
advisory. A 2326 UTC AMSU pass showed that the low-level center has
become displaced from the deep convection due to 20-25 kt of
easterly shear, as diagnosed by CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin. In addition, cloud top temperatures have warmed during
the past few hours. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on
the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, but this could be a little
generous.

The recent evolution of Karina's structure makes the intensity
forecast quite tricky. The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be
responding to less of a positive contribution from persistence and
GOES satellite predictors, and show much less strengthening than
before. The GFDL and HWRF, on the other hand, continue their
pattern of showing more immediate weakening. Since vertical shear
is expected to remain rather strong for another 36-48 hours, Karina
may have a difficult time recovering. Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered for the entire forecast period
but still lies above all of the guidance, especially beyond 24
hours. If Karina cannot recover soon, however, subsequent forecasts
will likely require additional decreases to fall in line with the
preponderance of the intensity model solutions.

The mid-tropospheric pattern consists of a mid-level high centered
over the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending west-southwestward
over the Pacific. The ridge is steering Karina westward, or
270/11 kt, and the subtropical ridge is expected to keep the cyclone
on a westward or west-northwestward track through the forecast
period. Karina could begin to interact with one or two adjacent
disturbances toward the end of the forecast period, possibly forcing
it to move west-southwestward and at a slower speed by day 5. The
track guidance envelope shifted to the north on this cycle, but it
was not enough to require a significant change from the previous
official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.1N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
520. FOREX
Quoting 518. STORMW2014:

Gonna go into the future a few hours.... We have invest 95L as per the two


which wave? the one that just came off the coast or the one to its West?
Quoting 516. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but we have exceeded our federally mandated limits of Kyles here. You'll have to pick another name.
I hope they retire one of the C names soon so they can put my name on the list.
Quoting 516. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but we have exceeded our federally mandated limits of Kyles here. You'll have to pick another name.


Is Nadine still good?
I'm just wondering, but if we do see an early onset of fall, what will that mean for the hurricane season? I remember Levi mentioning in one of his videos last year about the continent cooling during fall and its potential impacts, but I can't seem to find the video yet or remember what the impacts were.
Quoting 510. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Y'all should set up a marriage date. :)


-1

Quoting 506. sar2401:

God, I love it when you talk like that. :-)


The long way of saying it would be quite annoying, from a meteorologist standpoint of course ;).
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Is Nadine still good?
So far, so good on Nadine.
Quoting 500. Astrometeor:



January/February of 2003 was an epic winter in TN.

Could use another one of those.

I don't remember the whole winter, but I know I got at least one sizeable snow storm in Feb 2003 I think. Wash???
Why do people think that this coming winter is going to be a harsh one in the Midwest into the Northeast? If we get the El Nino in the late fall and early winter, the northern tier of the US typically should have a milder and drier winter. The only place I would see it being somewhat below normal in terms of temperatures is the southeast US, along with above average precipitation, which is typical for an El Nino winter in that location.
Quoting 519. GTstormChaserCaleb:

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Karina's structure has degraded significantly since the last
advisory. A 2326 UTC AMSU pass showed that the low-level center has
become displaced from the deep convection due to 20-25 kt of
easterly shear, as diagnosed by CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin. In addition, cloud top temperatures have warmed during
the past few hours. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on
the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, but this could be a little
generous.

The recent evolution of Karina's structure makes the intensity
forecast quite tricky. The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be
responding to less of a positive contribution from persistence and
GOES satellite predictors, and show much less strengthening than
before. The GFDL and HWRF, on the other hand, continue their
pattern of showing more immediate weakening. Since vertical shear
is expected to remain rather strong for another 36-48 hours, Karina
may have a difficult time recovering. Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered for the entire forecast period
but still lies above all of the guidance, especially beyond 24
hours. If Karina cannot recover soon, however, subsequent forecasts
will likely require additional decreases to fall in line with the
preponderance of the intensity model solutions.

The mid-tropospheric pattern consists of a mid-level high centered
over the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending west-southwestward
over the Pacific. The ridge is steering Karina westward, or
270/11 kt, and the subtropical ridge is expected to keep the cyclone
on a westward or west-northwestward track through the forecast
period. Karina could begin to interact with one or two adjacent
disturbances toward the end of the forecast period, possibly forcing
it to move west-southwestward and at a slower speed by day 5. The
track guidance envelope shifted to the north on this cycle, but it
was not enough to require a significant change from the previous
official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.1N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
I swear every time I keep reading that name I always think it says Katrina.
Quoting 527. Doppler22:


I don't remember the whole winter, but I know I got at least one sizeable snow storm in Feb 2003 I think. Wash???
That may have been the President's Day Blizzard.
Quoting 522. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I hope they retire one of the C names soon so they can put my name on the list.


I've been waiting for our names to be put down...I thought I read that Caleb isn't too far away on one of the Australian lists...

Of course I'll be mad though if it turns out to be a 40mph TS or something..

My cousins seem to have some of the bigger names.. Andrew, Monica, Daniel, Frances, Patsy...
It's only August 14 and the count for the East Pacific stands at 11-6-4. In terms of named storms, only 1982 and 1985 are ahead of us at this point in the season, and in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, only four seasons had a higher tally up to this point (1978, 1984, 1990, and 1992). In the Central Pacific, ACE is the highest we've seen for a seasonal count in over a decade.

The GFS and ECMWF show 2 to 3 more named storms forming this month, which would put us through Lowell, Marie, and Norbert--with 2 to 3 more months to go.

Though I think the chances are generally low, it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up exhausting the alphabet this season, especially if an El Nino develops in the fall.
Quoting 515. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That was quite an event, snow flurries were reported as far south as Sarasota.


6-8" in the Charleston area. Was pretty crazy seeing all that snow on top of all the down and broken trees. Made the area look almost undamaged for a couple days.
Quoting 527. Doppler22:


I don't remember the whole winter, but I know I got at least one sizeable snow storm in Feb 2003 I think. Wash???


Jan. 16, 2003 Nashville got a huge 7" snowstorm. And Feb. 9 we picked up another 4". And those were just the ones that created daily records. I remember the 7". Only time I've ever made a snow fort.
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's only August 14 and the count for the East Pacific stands at 11-6-4. In terms of named storms, only 1982 and 1985 are ahead of us at this point in the season, and in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, only four seasons had a higher tally up to this point (1978, 1984, 1990, and 1992). In the Central Pacific, ACE is the highest we've seen for a seasonal count in over a decade.

The GFS and ECMWF show 2 to 3 more named storms forming this month, which would put us through Lowell, Marie, and Norbert--with 2 to 3 more months to go.

Though I think the chances are generally low, it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up exhausting the alphabet this season, especially if an El Nino develops in the fall.
gut feeling. will the trend of stable air continue into next season or will we get a sort of "rebirth" of the atlantic
Coverage of the 1993 blizzard in Alabama by James Spann, Dan Satterfield, and Kevin Collins.

Part 1



Part 2



Part 3



Part 4

Quoting 529. Climate175:

I swear every time I keep reading that name I always think it says Katrina.

Whoever's in charge of naming cycones should be sacked.
You'd think after Katrina they'd eliminate a name like Karina.
And don't get me started on whoever came up with Igor.
Quoting 535. wunderweatherman123:

gut feeling. will the trend of stable air continue into next season or will we get a sort of "rebirth" of the atlantic

Yes.

:)
Quoting 534. Astrometeor:



Jan. 16, 2003 Nashville got a huge 7" snowstorm. And Feb. 9 we picked up another 4". And those were just the ones that created daily records. I remember the 7". Only time I've ever made a snow fort.
This all I see people do in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast getting from stores.
Quoting 528. lobdelse81:

Why do people think that this coming winter is going to be a harsh one in the Midwest into the Northeast? If we get the El Nino in the late fall and early winter, the northern tier of the US typically should have a milder and drier winter. The only place I would see it being somewhat below normal in terms of temperatures is the southeast US, along with above average precipitation, which is typical for an El Nino winter in that location.
It may not be the typical Nino pattern. even if Nino arrives in time , hemispheric patterns have been so strange, who knows what is in store. The east coast trough seems like it wants to stick around..Its wait and see.
Quoting 537. CosmicEvents:


Whoever's in charge of naming cycones should be sacked.
You'd think after Katrina they'd eliminate a name like Karina.
And don't get me started on whoever came up with Igor.

It's not Igor it's Eygor
Link Vic will tell ya all about it.
Quoting 540. hydrus:

It may not be the typical Nino pattern. even if Nino arrives in time , hemispheric patterns have been so strange, who knows what is in store. The east coast trough seems like it wants to stick around..Its wait and see.


Well, we had 6-8" of snow in '89...Maybe with the crazy patterns we can pull off a 1' + storm this winter? I'd be one happy camper.
I'd like a storm named Eeyore better than Igor.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 32m

African Wave Train coming to life, but cool water and dry air will work to retard. JMA weeklies interesting tho




later alligators!
Quoting 539. Climate175:

This all I see people do in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast getting from stores.


Which is kinda funny, because for disaster prep I wouldn't buy those two items since they are easily perishable. Canned soups and gallons of water is the way to go. All you need for the soups is a few washable bowls, and fuel for your grill/stove-thing.

At my house we have a 1000 gal. propane tank to assist in the winters (or to be our heat source when we lose power), and a 60 lb bag of salt to use on ice and snow. We used some of that salt this past winter after that ice storm in February. Retained power, though.
A blessed night to all.:)
Quoting 534. Astrometeor:



Jan. 16, 2003 Nashville got a huge 7" snowstorm. And Feb. 9 we picked up another 4". And those were just the ones that created daily records. I remember the 7". Only time I've ever made a snow fort.


We got about 15-20" on Presidents day weekend 2003. I used boxes to make snow bricks and iced them down to make a long lasting snow fort for the kids. A week later we got 2-4" of rain which melted it and caused substantial areal flooding. There were several other substantial snows that winter.

Late spring 2003 remains the most rotten miserable rainy cold such period I can recall in the DC area. It was the only non volcano year in the past twenty five I haven't gotten sweetcorn by the summer solstice (I also missed in 1992 but that was a cold year due to the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo)
Yeah, who came up with Humberto (oom-bear-toe)...Have a normal name...like Harry or Harold...
Where's some normal names like Justin or Jake...Nah we gotta be creative..

And Seriously...you cant get a better name so we gotta use Katia and Karina...Might as well have Katina or Katrine..

Someone with a serious sense of humor must've said "Lets replace Bob...with BILL.."

Rita and Rina wasn't really an efforted try either...
550. silas

Quoting StormJunkie:


Well, we had 6-8" of snow in '89...Maybe with the crazy patterns we can pull off a 1' + storm this winter? I'd be one happy camper.
If you like snow so much just move north! =)
Quoting 486. KoritheMan:


1962 automatically isn't a good analog because it was La Nina, not El Nino.

I'm looking for years that came on the heels of neutral years. Particularly those that lacked cold biases.


It may have been a La Nina year, but 1962 was the year of the great Columbus Day Storm, the extratropical manifestation of former Typhoon Freda that slammed the West Coast with record rains and winds. I actually have a personal childhood memory of it here in the SF Bay Area. In fact, it so impressed me, my mom subsequently went out and bought me my first weather book, which I still have.
Quoting 544. DonnieBwkGA:

I'd like a storm named Eeyore better than Igor.


If Igor had pulled a Bertha instead of becoming the epic 'cane it did, I would've said "eyesore".

:)
Quoting 545. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 32m

African Wave Train coming to life, but cool water and dry air will work to retard. JMA weeklies interesting tho




later alligators!
This is a perfect example of history repeating itself i'm not on here like that. the atlantic is boring so i though i should share this interesting compare and contrast for a hurricane in 1880 and 1980s hurricane allen!!
Quoting 546. Astrometeor:



Which is kinda funny, because for disaster prep I wouldn't buy those two items since they are easily perishable. Canned soups and gallons of water is the way to go. All you need for the soups is a few washable bowls, and fuel for your grill/stove-thing.

At my house we have a 1000 gal. propane tank to assist in the winters (or to be our heat source when we lose power), and a 60 lb bag of salt to use on ice and snow. We used some of that salt this past winter after that ice storm in February. Retained power, though.


Woodstove for our house if we lose power. I went through two cords last winter and it wasn't enough. In twenty years I haven't bothered with salt .

Milk buried in snow or kept in a cooler around freezing, will keep for two weeks. With 10F nights and 30F day, about as bad as we get here for strings of several days,, a bunch of water bottles in the cooler will keep the cooler contents from freezing for many days.

Problem is that if it warms up outside, you have no snow and no power.. yep the milk goes bad in a couple of days. Strings of 55F days and 40F nights are also common here in DC winters.


Quoting 549. JrWeathermanFL:

Yeah, who came up with Humberto (oom-bear-toe)...Have a normal name...like Harry or Harold...
Where's some normal names like Justin or Jake...Nah we gotta be creative..

And Seriously...you cant get a better name so we gotta use Katia and Karina...Might as well have Katina or Katrine..

Someone with a serious sense of humor must've said "Lets replace Bob...with BILL.."

Rita and Rina wasn't really an efforted try either...
I'm convinced sometimes they literally make up names. Fausto?
Quoting 554. windshear1993:

This is a perfect example of history repeating itself i'm not on here like that. the atlantic is boring so i though i should share this interesting compare and contrast for a hurricane in 1880 and 1980s hurricane allen!!
it just amazes me both hit near brownsville just 3 days apart!!!
Quoting 550. silas:


If you like snow so much just move north! =)



Would never make it as a Yankee. Just cause I like snow doesn't mean I could live with out the salt air, marsh, and the season...
Quoting 556. KoritheMan:


I'm convinced sometimes they literally make up names. Fausto?



It probably means WTF in Afrikaans or something...

I'm waiting for Imelda...

If it busts, we'll say Imelda-lee XP
560. JLPR2
Quoting 549. JrWeathermanFL:

Yeah, who came up with Humberto (oom-bear-toe)...Have a normal name...like Harry or Harold...
Where's some normal names like Justin or Jake...Nah we gotta be creative..

And Seriously...you cant get a better name so we gotta use Katia and Karina...Might as well have Katina or Katrine..

Someone with a serious sense of humor must've said "Lets replace Bob...with BILL.."

Rita and Rina wasn't really an efforted try either...


Those are all normal names to me, depends where you are from in the basin for the names to make sense for you. Dolly made no sense to me.
Quoting 555. georgevandenberghe:



Woodstove for our house if we lose power. I went through two cords last winter and it wasn't enough. In twenty years I haven't bothered with salt .



Salt's useful down here since we don't expect Ice Age-esque winters. So, for the annoying 1/4" of ice on my driveway, we put salt down to speed up the process of breaking it up and clearing the driveway. Also good for getting rid of those spots where Dad goes, "Astro (not really that), watch out for that spot!" (Astro is already falling)
Quoting 556. KoritheMan:


I'm convinced sometimes they literally make up names. Fausto?



Nope. Google it. I got dozens of people named Fausto from White Pages.

Quoting 561. Astrometeor:



Salt's useful down here since we don't expect Ice Age-esque winters. So, for the annoying 1/4" of ice on my driveway, we put salt down to speed up the process of breaking it up and clearing the driveway. Also good for getting rid of those spots where Dad goes, "Astro (not really that), watch out for that spot!" (Astro is already falling)
Why do you always refer to yourself as Astro when everyone here already knows your real name? lol
The EPAC repeats Zeke and Zelda every year. Thats weird too..
How about Zach, Zane, even Zakhar....

Why cant we just come up with the names??

Even the Indian Ocean....Hudhud...really....
Quoting 563. KoritheMan:


Why do you always refer to yourself as Astro when everyone here already knows your real name? lol



How do you know I told you my real name?

Quoting 564. JrWeathermanFL:

The EPAC repeats Zeke and Zelda every year. Thats weird too..
How about Zach, Zane, even Zakhar....

Why cant we just come up with the names??

Even the Indian Ocean....Hudhud...really....
The Legend of Zelda, bro. Do want.
Point is that there have got to be better names than what we have...Arthur and Bertha I'm fine..naming a strom Cristobal isnt hurting anything, but we cant come up with anything better..?

CALEB, maybe??
Quoting 567. JrWeathermanFL:

Point is that there have got to be better names than what we have...Arthur and Bertha I'm fine..naming a strom Cristobal isnt hurting anything, but we cant come up with anything better..?

CALEB, maybe??


Knowing how names are made, the replacement would be Cyle. (phonetically Kyle).

Quoting 565. Astrometeor:



How do you know I told you my real name?
How do I know anything at all?

All the cool people adhere to solipsism.
Quoting 565. Astrometeor:



How do you know I told you my real name?



Because I've met you in person earlier this year and your nametag clearly stated "Nathan"
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's only August 14 and the count for the East Pacific stands at 11-6-4. In terms of named storms, only 1982 and 1985 are ahead of us at this point in the season, and in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, only four seasons had a higher tally up to this point (1978, 1984, 1990, and 1992). In the Central Pacific, ACE is the highest we've seen for a seasonal count in over a decade.

The GFS and ECMWF show 2 to 3 more named storms forming this month, which would put us through Lowell, Marie, and Norbert--with 2 to 3 more months to go.

Though I think the chances are generally low, it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up exhausting the alphabet this season, especially if an El Nino develops in the fall.


1982 had four named Atlantic storms. There is a link, probably at least ENSO related, whether it is official or not, usually one or the other basin is active. Usually not both.

If not for Andrew, 1992 would have been a deadly dull ATL season, and that was the year of Iniki.
THiS



COUPLED WITH THIS




It's trending now however, I doubt however it will reach norm this year.
Quoting 568. Astrometeor:



Knowing how names are made, the replacement would be Cyle. (phonetically Kyle).

Ayle
Byle
Cyle
Dial
Eyeul
Fiale
Gyal
Hyal
Ial
Jyul
Kevin
Lyle
Mile
Niall
Ohwhyal..
Pile
Ryel
Style
Tile
Wial

The most likely new naming list from the NHC...
Quoting 570. Bluestorm5:




Because I've met you in person earlier this year and your nametag clearly stated "Nathan"


Dang it Kyle. Ruining my fun. :)
Quoting 569. KoritheMan:


How do I know anything at all?

All the cool people adhere to solipsism.



Since I had to look that up, and I disagree with the definition of it, no cool people adhere to that.
Funny enough is that shear is running pretty close to normal, I don't think that El Nino is playing a role here. Azores high is stuffed way up NE, think that is the problem.



577. JLPR2
You lying map! :|


Quoting 575. Astrometeor:



Since I had to look that up, and I disagree with the definition of it, no cool people adhere to that.
People that THINK they are cool, I should say.

It's a valid epistemology... but hardly useful.
72hrs...Nada...

GFS 00z 84hr showing strong high amplitude waves; one southwest of the CV islands and one coming off the coast of Africa. Will anything give?


However, it looks like the Bermuda high is finally making an appearance. Azores high being stuck up NE is driving the SAL into the MDR. Maybe with the Bermuda high showing face it may draw down the other. This is all natural stuff, just usually happens MUCH earlier in the year....

Quoting 580. Drakoen:

GFS 00z 84hr showing strong high amplitude waves; one southwest of the CV islands and one coming off the coast of Africa. Will anything give?





850 says no bueno...But I'll refer to you and the other folks that have a much better understanding of it than I do.
Quoting 582. StormJunkie:



850 says no bueno...But I'll refer to you and the other folks that have a much better understanding of it than I do.

Quoting JLPR2:
You lying map! :|

I still don't know how they arrive at those numbers. Regardless of that, the highest percentage I see is like 20% in the center of that large wave. That graphic has been posted since April and, I swear, it always shows some purple spot between Colombia and Honduras...for months straight, and nothing has happened. I wonder if people look at that and say it's really crap or if they just get excited by lots of colors?
Maybe the change into the Autumn pattern in September will shake things up.

My dark horse in the Gulf has poofed, now my hopes for Cristobal rest mainly on ex-94L, making a small comeback as it approaches the islands.

NAM (model for people hoping against hope) and GFS not on board, so staying 60% chance there is no Cristobal in August.
Quoting 577. JLPR2:

You lying map! :|




Unless the 5 day version shows in excess of 80% chance of TC formation, there is less than a 10% chance of TC formation in 5 days.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Dang it Kyle. Ruining my fun. :)
I told you. No more Kyles. We're overloaded with that name. Nathan is still OK unless there are some sneaky Nathans around I don't know about.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Maybe the change into the Autumn pattern in September will shake things up.

My dark horse in the Gulf has poofed, now my hopes for Cristobal rest mainly on ex-94L, making a small comeback as it approaches the islands.

NAM (model for people hoping against hope) and GFS not on board, so staying 60% chance there is no Cristobal in August.
October. One cat 1 and one cat 3. Both fish but at least we'll get a major. Until then, nothing but a parade of irritating invests and depressing depressions. I made all that up, but it sorta sounds like a forecast.
Quoting 583. Drakoen:





So what's the difference?

Quoting EdMahmoud:


1982 had four named Atlantic storms. There is a link, probably at least ENSO related, whether it is official or not, usually one or the other basin is active. Usually not both.

If not for Andrew, 1992 would have been a deadly dull ATL season, and that was the year of Iniki.
If the MJO is working in the Pacific, we ain't got no mojo in the Atlantic. Seriously, I know everyone is bored and wants to see some action, but does anyone think we are going to have a real active Pacific and anything but a comatose Atlantic?
Quoting 585. sar2401:

I still don't know how they arrive at those numbers. Regardless of that, the highest percentage I see is like 20% in the center of that large wave. That graphic has been posted since April and, I swear, it always shows some purple spot between Colombia and Honduras...for months straight, and nothing has happened. I wonder if people look at that and say it's really crap or if they just get excited by lots of colors?


COLORS! YAY! Shiny!
Quoting StormJunkie:


So what's the difference?

Yours has circles...and "X"'s. No reds though, so it's kind of a cheap version of Drak's.
Quoting 590. StormJunkie:



So what's the difference?




30 hours. In any case, it appears the system does attempt at some vertical depth even closing off at 850mb but looks like trouble comes when a northern low emerges from Africa with PVA from the ITCZ low to the northern low.
Quoting 593. sar2401:

Yours has circles...and "X"'s. No reds though, so it's kind of a cheap version of Drak's.


So it's like looking at the standard infrared instead of rainbow?
Quoting StormJunkie:


COLORS! YAY! Shiny!
My cursor is set so it changes colors. Sometimes I just sit and stare at it.
Quoting 594. Drakoen:



30 hours. In any case, it appears the system does attempt at some vertical depth even closing off at 850mb but looks like trouble comes when a northern low emerges from Africa with PVA from the ITCZ low to the northern low.


Talking way over my pay grade Drak; need to dumb it down a bit for me.
Quoting StormJunkie:


So it's like looking at the standard infrared instead of rainbow?
Yeah, it's kind of boring like that. The best maps are the ones with deep reds all over. And some purple. A little yellow too, but no green.
Quoting 581. ProgressivePulse:

However, it looks like the Bermuda high is finally making an appearance. Azores high being stuck up NE is driving the SAL into the MDR. Maybe with the Bermuda high showing face it may draw down the other. This is all natural stuff, just usually happens MUCH earlier in the year....



I think you're spot on. This cap may be broken with this next giant wave coming off of Africa, coupled with the return of the mid level northerly winds aloft. Something is afoot, if you're paying attention to the change in the pattern over the Central and Eastern Atlantic.
Quoting 597. StormJunkie:



Talking way over my pay grade Drak; need to dumb it down a bit for me.


Tries to develop but doesn't.

Quoting 597. StormJunkie:



Talking way over my pay grade Drak; need to dumb it down a bit for me.
tl;dr: makes some initial attempts at consolidation only for a secondary tropical wave emerging farther north off the coast than this one to steal energy, stifling development altogether.
Night all.

Sure would be fun to see something develop despite the horrible conditions and lack of model support. Not holding my breath though.
Quoting 601. KoritheMan:


tl;dr: makes some initial attempts at consolidation only for a secondary tropical wave emerging farther north off the coast than this one to steal energy, stifling development altogether.



tldr, see post 600.

Quoting 603. Drakoen:



tldr, see post 600.
You had a shorter, more true to form tl;dr, but I like to make myself feel special for being able to understand your insatiable love for meteorological jargon. :)
Quoting 592. StormJunkie:



COLORS! YAY! Shiny!


Hence my preference for rainbow IR color scale. Even tame convection looks cool in the tie-dyed 1960s color scale of rainbow.

Quoting 598. sar2401:

Yeah, it's kind of boring like that. The best maps are the ones with deep reds all over. And some purple. A little yellow too, but no green.


See comment about rainbow color scale for IR. RBTOP as a special trip for invests and storms.

Karina would look pretty lame right now in the AVN color scale.



Quoting KoritheMan:

You had a shorter, more true to form tl;dr, but I like to make myself feel special for being able to understand your insatiable love for meteorological jargon. :)


tldr kori doesn't like jargon
Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:



tldr kori doesn't like jargon


TIL kori doesn't like jargon.
Something lighting up in the East Atlantic. May be an invest.
611. JRRP
CMC and NAVGEM


Quoting EdMahmoud:


See comment about rainbow color scale for IR. RBTOP as a special trip for invests and storms.

Karina would look pretty lame right now in the AVN color scale.



So true. It's always better to use the rainbow, where even high clouds look menacing...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Bye bye megablizzard, hello rainmageddon. Eastern Australia is about to be soaked

A bit of an over-hyped headline.
That weather guy appears to be on some kind of amphetamines.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150534
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by early next week. Some development of the system could
then occur as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
615. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by early next week. Some development of the system could
then occur as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.
616. FOREX
Quoting 615. JRRP:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by early next week. Some development of the system could
then occur as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

there will be a lot of happy bloggers in 6 hours or so.

Quoting 616. FOREX:


there will be a lot of happy bloggers in 6 hours or so.
Except me. I'll still be Mr. Cynical Grumpypants.
Quoting FOREX:

there will be a lot of happy bloggers in 6 hours or so.
Thank goodness. Who has the first model runs?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by early next week. Some development of the system could
then occur as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.
Well its about time the NHC (in their 5 day outlook) mentioned the tropical wave emerging from western Africa. I have upgraded it to a special feature on my latest blog post...where I am forecasting it to be at least a tropical storm by 5 days.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Except me. I'll still be Mr. Cynical Grumpypants.


Awe. :( hang in there Grumpypants. I think one GFS ensemble sends that to NOLA. :P



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by early next week. Some development of the system could
then occur as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

i am so happy now
Will that TUTT suck all the dry air out of the CTAL?


lots of rain and t.storms at 36 west to
AOI is pulling in a large amount of atmosphere.

Quoting 576. ProgressivePulse:

Funny enough is that shear is running pretty close to normal, I don't think that El Nino is playing a role here. Azores high is stuffed way up NE, think that is the problem.






The problem is persistence of large scale dry air and warm 500 mb temps and upper level convergence and a lack of surface convergence. Even if dry air gets kicked to the curb, those three issues have dominated even more over a large area of the deep tropics so far this season and even with deep tropical moisture, convection will be lack luster.
I always remind people that just because there isn't rain, it doesn't mean the airmass is dry, and just because there's rain, it doesn't mean the airmass is moist. The process involves so much more than that, there's a reason why even the most educated tropical forecasters struggle with these problems. One can't just stare at the water vapor satellite product and figure everything out.
Some of the GFS ensembles on the 500 mb height pattern are interesting as we go later out in time, showing a northward-migrating jet stream.

But I'm expecting another trash low.
Quoting sar2401:
That weather guy appears to be on some kind of amphetamines.

I laughed so hard at your comment. If I could plus it one hundred times, I would.
Good Morning Everybody
Boy thats alot of DRY AIR over there SIR!

633. FOREX
94L still gaining convection despite dry air.
here we go folks!
Quoting 633. FOREX:

94L still gaining convection despite dry air.



It does (click to enlarge; saved pic), amid of its large tropical wave:


Maybe down the road in the Caribbean ...??

Have a nice morning over there ...
Quoting 633. FOREX:

94L still gaining convection despite dry air.

remember last night I said this was a possibility
however i think if this was to redevelop back into invest plus develop more to a tropical system it wouldn't be until it reaches the W Caribbean

the tropical wave with deepening low now 1010mb with closed isobar doing well but needs to throw some of its convection to the N and NW side of the LLC system moving W

tropical wave coming off W African Coast not bad but can't shake off the feeling that it may start to weaken in convection and start to feel the dry air and SAL more of the SAL than dry air however

on another note atlantic ridge extends from the Azores to NW of CV Islands to S of Bermuda to S Florida/S of Florida and into Texas and Mexico Boarder area



ex invest 94L MAYBE COMING BACK
Tremendous amount of thunder and lightning north of Orlando this morning.

MAYBE invest 95L soon.
Quoting 641. hurricanes2018:
MAYBE invest 95L soon.


Looks good Jason. Has the NHC highlighted this area yet?
4.9" of rain north of me last night at Rock Springs but 4 miles south .30" at my house.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
MAYBE invest 95L soon.

yeah the first one with the deepening tropical low soon becomes 95L and the wave behind 96L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks good Jason. Has the NHC highlighted this area yet?

the wave yes in 5 days 20% 0% before that the tropical no not yet
cv.waves-sloppy.joes
Quoting 633. FOREX:

94L still gaining convection despite dry air.


Yes that has surprised me this morning. That upper level feature seems to be pulling moisture down toward the Caribbean.

We might just be off to a late start this season. Way too early to say it's a bust.
Da blob approaching the lesser Antilles should be here in the Keys next week. Meanwhile our low temps remain very high.

From the NWS EYW

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A WAVE IN THE
EASTERLIES...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL
APPROACH THE KEYS MONDAY. AS THIS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...RAIN CHANCES WILL SPIKE. THE BEST TIMING FOR INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED...THE WAVE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND DECELERATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AFFECTING TIMING AND INTENSITY WITHIN DERIVED
MODEL FIELDS. UNTIL THE WAVE REACHES THE KEYS...EXPECT GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.


nice cool weather this morning in the northeast its was 52F AT my house at 6am this morning!!
Area of disturbed weather near 11N 30W is showing signs of organization. It appears to be vertically stacked, and is moving over 28Deg C' The convection has increase the past 6 hrs , with winds of 25 mph. The system is moving west and if the trend of organization continues the area will soon be designated 95L
Good Morning all..

00z Navgem Ensembles
Quoting 558. StormJunkie:



Would never make it as a Yankee. Just cause I like snow doesn't mean I could live with out the salt air, marsh, and the season...


I've always thought Lowcountry was a special place. Even though I am a yankee. Most likely because I read Pat Conroy's books in my college years.

Had enough snow, lived in Maine foothills for 8 years. 2007-2008 broke me lol. About 30 plowable events (4" or more), as we lived on a dirt road that was not maintained by town. 200"+ at about 850' elevation. Had to shovel my roof clear 3 times that winter.
6Z LOL.

6Z LOL.

Quoting 653. unknowncomic:

6Z LOL.




We don't need fishes we need rain!
I will still be 0%-20% at 8am
South | View Regional Video

- Much of the region will get to enjoy another dry day today.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Georgia Coast down through the Florida Peninsula near an old stationary frontal boundary.

- The Southeast will be quite warm, but humidity levels will be tolerable over most locations.

- Today's highs will be mainly in the 80s to around 90 for most locations.

- Texas will be hotter with highs well into the 90s to around 100 degrees.

- The entire region sees increasing temps and humidity levels returning to more summerlike readings into early next week.

next week hot for the south!!
Quoting 644. wunderkidcayman:


yeah the first one with the deepening tropical low soon becomes 95L and the wave behind 96L


hopefully they won't move too far north
watching this map 8am coming out soon.
Good Morning Folks. From Dr. Masters post above; The typical formation date of the season's fourth named storm is August 23.  So now, we chill for the next week and wait............................




Good Morning, Showers and storms already moving through parts of central Florida. More moving in from the gulf. Looks like it could be a stormy start to the day through the afternoon hours here in central and east central Florida. I see all eyes are out on the atlantic. Hope we get something to track this time around.
UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 37.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.08.2014 12.9N 37.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 18.08.2014 13.1N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2014 14.1N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2014 15.1N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 47.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.3N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 18.1N 57.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
8N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N31W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.
Seems a little bit of a WNW track.
Quoting ncstorm:
UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 37.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.08.2014 12.9N 37.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 18.08.2014 13.1N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2014 14.1N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2014 15.1N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 47.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.3N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 18.1N 57.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
low 1010mb down to 1009 later
we have a yellow x now!!
Later all..

ex-94 might shake up the gulf of mexico next wk
I could be wrong (you never know exactly how NHC looks at their criteria for the crayons) but that wave exiting the Cape Verde Islands is headed towards pretty dry and stable air out ahead (at the moment) a few days out as it heads West.  Short-term development is off the table so it will not meet the 48 hour criteria so am am thinking no crayon or percentage at 8:00 but mentioned/shaded  in the outlook and 5-day experimental product with a "0" percentage.  Just my personal opinion. 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered
just off the west coast of Africa. This low is accompanied by an
area of disturbed weather, and is forecast to move west-
northwestward toward an environment unfavorable for significant
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
Really? Who would have thought!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered
just off the west coast of Africa. This low is accompanied by an
area of disturbed weather, and is forecast to move west-
northwestward toward an environment unfavorable for significant
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
I'll accept Dr. Avila's 20% 5 days out............................... :)
Quoting 639. hurricanes2018:




ex invest 94L MAYBE COMING BACK
I believe it was the gfs that show in its first cycles that it develop Ex-94L until it reach the BOC.


a fish storm!!!
Too bad the wave near 30W has almost no convection, other than ITCZ convection well Southwest of it.



I believe it has been discussed on 'average day for the third storm', that includes the comatose era, and this year is falling father behind the post 1995 average, especially with no reliable models not really showing anything in the near future.

NavGEM ensembles- I believe they are run at a quarter the horizontal grid scale resolution of the Euro ensembles.

Little on the individual GFS ensembles. Some lowering of pressure on some of the individual members in the BOC at the extreme end of August.

Euro ensemble means- again, normal to above normal surface pressure all of the run in the tropical Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean.

Looking more and more like Cristobal will be a September storm.
Waist of time to mark the spot!
Quoting hurricanes2018:


a fish storm!!!
I haven't seen thunder and lightning this continuous in the early morning hours in a very long time.



20% in 5 days is better than nothing, I suppose.
Over 10,000 lightning strikes so far this morning and climbing fast.

The best chance for a potential major this year, if at all, is probably going to occur closer to the Western Caribbean, Gulf, or off the Coast of Florida; no way to get around the pervasive dry-stable air and Sal in the Central Atlantic, again, this year unless we see a real burst of waves from Africa in about two weeks that transform the ITCZ into a moist passage all the way to the Antilles.  The waves, and perhaps a few tropical storms will cross regardless during the peak period and will find more favorable conditions in the areas noted above where they can better avoid dry air entrainment issues.   As it stands right now, as of today anyway in the SAL charts, the Eastern Caribbean is full of SAL adding to the potential "graveyard" effect in that region if a viable wave enters that region.
todays 15th anything beyond next wk is just a guess,. bandwidth guzzlers
Here is the am NCEP Caribbean discussion; that wave entering the Caribbean is going to encounter some suppression in terms of organized convection:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
709 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LIFT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AT MID LEVELS...THIS RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC-NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES-GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE IS
INITIALIZED ALONG 53W/54W...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WEST OF
THE AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WAVE IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH HEIGHT. THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND 06UTC ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE VIRGIN ISLES BY FIRST LIGHT. THROUGH 18UTC
IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND LATER IN THE DAY
REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE.

AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WAVE IS TO ENCOUNTER
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN...WITH UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING HOSTILE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF
THE WAVE REMAINS NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST...WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT 2-3 HRS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT SHALLOW
ACTIVITY. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MAXIMA PEAKING BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FORECAST. THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF...ARW/NMM VERSIONS...ARE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
FORECAST...PROJECTING MODERATE CONVECTION WITH WIDELY ISOLATED
BULLS EYES.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP TUTT LOW ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP...WITH MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED
SHALLOW CONVECTION SPUTTERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)

Quoting 687. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the am NCEP Caribbean discussion; that wave entering the Caribbean is going to encounter some suppression in terms of organized convection:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
709 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LIFT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AT MID LEVELS...THIS RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC-NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES-GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE IS
INITIALIZED ALONG 53W/54W...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WEST OF
THE AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WAVE IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH HEIGHT. THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND 06UTC ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE VIRGIN ISLES BY FIRST LIGHT. THROUGH 18UTC
IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND LATER IN THE DAY
REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE.

AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WAVE IS TO ENCOUNTER
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN...WITH UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING HOSTILE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF
THE WAVE REMAINS NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST...WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT 2-3 HRS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT SHALLOW
ACTIVITY. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MAXIMA PEAKING BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FORECAST. THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF...ARW/NMM VERSIONS...ARE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
FORECAST...PROJECTING MODERATE CONVECTION WITH WIDELY ISOLATED
BULLS EYES.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP TUTT LOW ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP...WITH MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED
SHALLOW CONVECTION SPUTTERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)




May do something after it makes its way through the passage. Otherwise, looks like potential for some beneficial rains. Thanks for sharing.
It just turned pitch black here in Apopka. If this is what I have to look forward to during El-Nino this Fall & Winter then I would rather take this then a 20% invest of developing in 5 days.

Very impressive lightning all morning and even caught a lightning strike with a Rainbow in the background on my camera.
Quoting 690. StormTrackerScott:

It just turned pitch black here in Apopka. If this is what I have to look forward to during El-Nino this Fall & Winter then I would rather take this then a 20% invest of developing in 5 days.

Very impressive lightning all morning and even caught a lightning strike with a Rainbow in the background on my camera.
Looks to be soggy in Siesta Key, and headed your way. I heard the thunder and rolled up the window. Stay away from golf courses and barbed wire fences.
692. JRRP
Lightning count has dropped by over 200 strikes in the last 30 minutes as the storms near me finally weakened.
Quoting 672. Tropicsweatherpr:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered
just off the west coast of Africa. This low is accompanied by an
area of disturbed weather, and is forecast to move west-
northwestward toward an environment unfavorable for significant
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila



And now come the fishes :( boring!
Good Morning!

August 15, 2014 ..... the normal typical beginning of the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season is here.

We will see what happens! Looking into my "Cristobal," what does the future hold? Mmmmm. At the moment, there is a lot of wind shear and hostile conditions out there!

But, it only takes one major storm, under the right conditions, maybe if it is only for 1 week or so, in an otherwise hostile season ... to make this a bad hurricane event for a coastal region. Especially if it makes a landfall..

A good example was 1979, when only 8 named Atlantic storms formed. Hurricanes David and Frederic became major hurricanes, and teamed up on the Caribbean Islands and the USA.

By the time October 1979 rolled around, the season was basically over.

Hurricane David slammed the Caribbean Islands, and plowed into eastern Florida, near Port St. Lucie, before making its final landfall near Savannah, GA. In the Caribbean, Hurricane David was a disaster, and heavy damage was also inflicted on the east-central Florida Atlantic coast.

I remember 1979's Hurricane Frederic .. very well. He developed into a hurricane in the central Atlantic, and then weakened as it moved into the Caribbean sea. When Frederic moved into the Gulf of Mexico, it strengthened into a major hurricane, and made landfall near Dauphin Island, AL.

What was really impressive is that Frederic had a very strong north-western side, and a LARGE classic signature of wind damage everywhere ... although it's eye was a huge 40-50 miles in diameter! Its winds were at least 125MPH, sustained, and moving NNW at landfall. Around the Mobile, AL, area it was a disaster! The area from Gulfport, MS, to Pensacola, FL, was clobbered.

Of course, there are other slower years that produced monster hurricanes. 1992's Hurricane Andrew will forever be remembered as a CAT 5 catastrophe for south Florida, and it also slammed into south-central Louisiana as a CAT 3. There were only 7 named storms in 1992.

There's no stopping Mother Nature, she is going to do what she wants to do!

WU is awesome, and Everyone always has interesting things to say on here ... always an great place to check in, and see what is happening ... especially when something is brewing in the tropics!

Quoting 649. hurricanes2018:



nice cool weather this morning in the northeast its was 52F AT my house at 6am this morning!!

Morning, cool indeed. It was 35 this morning at my house in Northern Mich and 38 yesterday morning, I guess fall is coming lol.
Quoting 652. HaoleboySurfEC:


Had enough snow, lived in Maine foothills for 8 years. 2007-2008 broke me lol. About 30 plowable events (4" or more), as we lived on a dirt road that was not maintained by town. 200"+ at about 850' elevation. Had to shovel my roof clear 3 times that winter.


I remember that winter. I lived in same foothills for 25 years. Many a frigid evening spent pushing multiple feet of snow off the roof. I moved to southern Maine, where its downright balmy by comparison in the winter. 80" of snow instead of 200" and lows of -18F instead of -35F! :)
Quoting TroutMadness:

Morning, cool indeed. It was 35 this morning at my house in Northern Mich and 38 yesterday morning, I guess fall is coming lol.



May it will help if you put what two or city you live in so that way when other like me come and see read they will no where that 35 was reported from
699. FOREX
Quoting 669. islander101010:

ex-94 might shake up the gulf of mexico next wk


I hope so, I'm getting in a really bad mood.
Realistically, we have around 10 weeks left of the "active" part of the hurricane season.
Next week (Aug. 20th is the "first" peak of the season. The overall peak is Sept. 10-11th. By the end of the third week in October, the chance of seeing a hurricane drops significantly.

Then it will be back to non-tropical discussions for 7-8 months.

In other words, I hope we start to see some action (real action - not another Bertha).



701. FOREX
Quoting 699. FOREX:



I hope so, I'm getting in a really bad mood.


Could that lone GFS ensemble member be correct?lol
95W is looking a bit better and may develop later this week.
Katina has weakened and may re-intensify later on. However, the proxmity from it to other disturbances may hinder re-intensification.
A wave in the EATL is bigger and looks a bit better. Conditions do not support any significant development at this time.

Read the full synopsis: Link
I think the actual day with the highest prob of a named storm is September 11.

Climatology is just a long running average, and everything screams dead season. I just hope we make it to Edouard, which is my name, except French. I don't think the season will be that dead.

IMBY, the Equinox ends hurricane season, by then, the Westerlies have returned, and being at the Western edge of the basin, everything will go well South or recurve. There was a major in October 1949 and a minimal Cat 1 so weak half of Houston didn't experience anything unusual during landfall in 1989, but just a little over a month of season here.

Good news, Kate hit Florida a week before Thanksgiving in Florida. So Florida gets their money's worth, a full six months of hurricane season.
Quoting 669. islander101010:

ex-94 might shake up the gulf of mexico next wk


Any reliable models suggesting that?
Quoting 698. Tazmanian:




May it will help if you put what two or city you live in so that way when other like me come and see read they will no where that 35 was reported from

Hello, my PWS Station ID: KMIGRAYL5 , Grayling Michigan. Grayling Army Air Field (KGOV) was 42 this morning to the west of me. The Au Sable River Valley (such as it is) gets cooler a lot of times for some reason. We had a couple of frosts in the middle of June. Had to cover the garden.
Quoting TroutMadness:

Hello, my PWS Station ID: KMIGRAYL5 , Grayling Michigan. Grayling Army Air Field (KGOV) was 42 this morning to the west of me. The Au Sable River Valley (such as it is) gets cooler a lot of times for some reason. We had a couple of frosts in the middle of June. Had to cover the garden.



You may get a early season snow if this keeps up any tress. Up there turning color?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It just turned pitch black here in Apopka. If this is what I have to look forward to during El-Nino this Fall & Winter then I would rather take this then a 20% invest of developing in 5 days.

Very impressive lightning all morning and even caught a lightning strike with a Rainbow in the background on my camera.


Scott, i thought you said we would have a full blown El Nino this summer? That didnt pan out. I wouldnt bet on an El Nino in the Fall or Winter either. You may not get what you have been predicting all year! The current value in the 3.4 region is Negative We will see but you may be setting yourself up for some crow as usual :o) . Also, since we have no El Nino yet, its silly to say any weather conditions we are having are related to El Nino, considering we are far from one. Just my two cents, bubba.



And falling again in the Nino 3 region.


I think we are not as close as you think.
Quoting StormWx:


Scott, i thought you said we would have a full blown El Nino this summer? That didnt pan out. I wouldnt bet on an El Nino in the Fall or Winter either. You may not get what you have been predicting all year! The current value in the 3.4 region is Negative We will see but you may be setting yourself up for some crow as usual :o) . Also, since we have no El Nino yet, its silly to say any weather conditions we are having are related to El Nino, considering we are far from one. Just my two cents, bubba.



And falling again in the Nino 3 region.


I think we are not as close as you think.



Don't start.
Yes, the overall peak in the season is Sept 10-11th (corrected my earlier post).
My brain stopped working for a few minutes.

There is a smaller first peak around Aug. 20th.
This year seems to be the same as last year. The MDR will be full of promising waves that go poof along with a few that struggle to make it, but never amount to anything.

The question will be do the homegrown storms differ from last year. If we get some that form someplace other than 50 miles off the coast of Mexico it could spell trouble for the Gulf Coast.

I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see our next named storm until the very end of the month or even into September. As others have metioned though, you never know when things are gonna set up perfectly and mother nature will release all her pent up energy into one ferocious storm.
Quoting 690. StormTrackerScott:

It just turned pitch black here in Apopka. If this is what I have to look forward to during El-Nino this Fall & Winter then I would rather take this then a 20% invest of developing in 5 days.

Very impressive lightning all morning and even caught a lightning strike with a Rainbow in the background on my camera.


Me too, Scott. Mornings have been quite stormy here in Sarasota.



nice tropical wave with some rain to it.
Number of named systems by average date. By Aug. 23 we should be on our 4th named storm.
Average of 11 named storms per season.

1. July 9
2. Aug 1
3. Aug 13
4. Aug 23
5. Aug 31
6. Sep 8
7. Sep 16
8. Sep 24
9 Oct 4
10 Oct 19
11 Nov 23

Quoting 714. TheDawnAwakening:



No it isn't

... and even if it was, the globe has now moved above average in tropical cyclone activity for the year thanks to recent activity in the Pacific.
720. FOREX
Quoting 717. hurricanes2018:




nice tropical wave with some rain to it.


Agreed. But no model support. Sigh.
Quoting 711. Sfloridacat5:

Yes, the peak is Sept 10-11th.
My brain stopped working for a few minutes.
That's okay it happens to all of us. Good morning everyone. We are nearing the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and currently there is no threat areas to discuss. Some of the numerical models are showing development from the tropical wave that has come off the coast of Africa and the one that is ahead of it. None are really bullish on strength, but a Tropical Storm out of these 2 waves can't be ruled out before dry air gets the best of it. Elsewhere, in the Atlantic we'll need to continue to keep an eye of the East Coast or GOM from quick spin ups from stalled frontal boundaries. Also, ex-94L looks poised to enter the Caribbean, but conditions are unfavorable for development. However, if it makes it into the Western Caribbean it could rejuvenate.

Number of Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin per 100 years:



Points of Origin by 10-day periods:





I'm going to out on a limb and predict that our next Tropical Storm will occur on August 27. A mesocyclonic thunderstorm will enter the Long Island Sound at Bridgeport CT....briefly spinning up into Christobal before striking Port Jefferson, Long Island with 40 mph sustained winds. Beyond that, nothing on the horizon.
Quoting 476. sar2401:

I take it all the important people in the movie weren't killed by being carried away in an EF-10 twister then...
Quoting 501. georgevandenberghe:



They should have gotten a convective specialist to go over some of the really hokey lines. We also just don't miss monster tornado setups in the second decade of the 21'st century as everyone else in the movie story did. I also REALLY did not like the plotline bailing out of the school to try to outrun the storm in school buses. The risk of an utter tragedy as the buses are overtaken (as would happen in real life) is too high. The monster storm moved unrealistically slowly.

It was entertaining for two hours though and I remain glad I didn't choose one of the comic book adaptation movies or the Purge as my other alternatives. I just grabbed a period of quiet at home to take my wife out to a movie away from the teens (none of whom wanted to go)



One other thing I remember was that the tornado safe tank was rated for winds up to 170kt. Tornado winds have been known to be stronger than this since the 19'th century and no one would try to intercept a tornado with a vehicle that flimsy.
Quoting 712. Wildcat11:

The decreased number of hurricanes is evidence of Global Cooling


There's a more direct way of checking for a global warming trend or a global cooling trend than going by hurricane and tropical storm activity in one part of the world for part of one season, and that is by using global average temperature assessments. According to the US National Climatic Data Center, May 2014 was the record hottest May globally, and June 2014 was the record hottest June globally. This follows 350 consecutive calendar months that were warmer than average globally (based on the 20th century average for each month of the year). The July result hasn't been released yet, but July 2014 was also warmer than the 20th century average for July, and August 2014 will be warmer than the 20th century average for August. There are multiple lines of evidence that point to a global warming trend.
Quoting 690. StormTrackerScott:

It just turned pitch black here in Apopka. If this is what I have to look forward to during El-Nino this Fall & Winter then I would rather take this then a 20% invest of developing in 5 days.

Very impressive lightning all morning and even caught a lightning strike with a Rainbow in the background on my camera.


That is IF we have an El-Nino this Fall. BTW, this westerly weather pattern is not El-Nino driven. But I'm sure you do know that.
I'm NEVER going to relate a current happening to the polar vortex or global warming...Climate change, whatever you wanna call it...

Yes the globe is warming. But not drastically enough yet to have felt any changes in say number of cyclones..
Quoting 724. Wildcat11:



Oh ok. So I guess an increased number of hurricanes would be evidence of Global Cooling?


No, your first statement is wrong, and this statement is wrong. Number of hurricanes (which basin are you taking about, or are you saying globally as well?) has no direct relation to warming or cooling globally. The statement ignores other variables in storm formation such as shear, relative humidity, SAL, etc. that may also be affected by changing climate.

Your mistake is that you assumed a 1 to 1 correlation between hurricanes and global warming, it isn't that simple.

Clearly ocean surface, ocean sub surface, and land surface temperatures show upward trends with the total amount of energy in the system accelerating over time. Currently, the science doesn't seem to show there being an impact positive or negative in storm numbers, this page is a good place to start learning: Link
Quoting 727. unknowncomic:




Plume of moisture on the upper right trying to merge with the MDR.

a) This will jump start the CV season.

b) Shred every thing in its path.

c) No effect.

d) Who gives a s***?



C.

Look at the water vapor in the Atlantic and compare it to the MDR in the Pacific. Something has to change - just don't know when.
Quoting unknowncomic:



Plume of moisture on the upper right trying to merge with the MDR.

a) This will jump start the CV season.

b) Shred every thing in its path.

c) No effect.

d) Who gives a s***?


There's lots of activity (west to east) up around 40 degree N. Latitude. Then we've got high pressure setup below this active zone.

Unfortunately we don't have anything happening below this high pressure zone. We should be seeing CV systems moving through this zone, but this year its dominated by dry air.
733. silas
Where is Julio??? Did he get lost again? Lol.

Beautiful waves, not-so-beautiful environment (the stratocumulus clouds north of the waves tell the story of dry air):

Good News for me during this lull period.  Was planning to come to work tomorrow to get caught up and just got the e-mail; computers down over the weekend for updating.  Guess I have to change plans and go fishing and just got the forecast for tomorrow morning in the Big Bend of Florida:

SATURDAY

Mostly Sunny

Mostly
Sunny

High: 93 °F

Quoting jrweatherman:


C.

Look at the water vapor in the Atlantic and compare it to the MDR in the Pacific. Something has to change - just don't know when.


The EastPac is usually a pretty favorable environment for tropical activity.
The ITCZ is well established and they're getting a nice moisture feed from Central and South America.
Quoting 733. silas:

Where is Julio??? Did he get lost again? Lol.



He's playing hide and seek :p
u see the dry air in both lows!! the both lows lost all them rain in the center because of the dry air!!
Quoting 738. Doppler22:


He's playing hide and seek :p
How can that be consider a tc? The Central pacific center needs to be kidding me.
Quoting 693. StormTrackerScott:

Lightning count has dropped by over 200 strikes in the last 30 minutes as the storms near me finally weakened.
wow that is lots of Lightning strikes over there!!
Quoting 697. tlawson48:



I remember that winter. I lived in same foothills for 25 years. Many a frigid evening spent pushing multiple feet of snow off the roof. I moved to southern Maine, where its downright balmy by comparison in the winter. 80" of snow instead of 200" and lows of -18F instead of -35F! :)


Yes the tropical waters off New England...because wet snow is so much warmer...lol I do miss X-Country skiing at Sunday River Inn greatly.
744. SLU
Quoting 734. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Beautiful waves, not-so-beautiful environment (the stratocumulus clouds north of the waves tell the story of dry air):




Sigh.

Quoting 742. hurricanes2018:

wow that is lots of Lightning strikes over there!!


Wet morning here in Tampa Bay. Lot's of lightning. Hopefully it will clear out this afternoon but if the sun comes out it will get extremely humid.
ed use models as guidance not set in stone. speaking of models canadian is latching on to a s california event
that tropical wave is moving wnw right next to the coast of AFRICAN
Extreme Weather in Bangladesh on Friday, 15 August, 2014 at 03:10 (03:10 AM) UTC.
Description
Lightning killed a farmer in Meherpur, three people in Brahmanbaria, two in Bogra and one in Moulvibazar districts yesterday and the day before. A farmer was killed and three others were injured in separate incidents of lighting at different villages in Gangni upazila of Meherpur district yesterday. The deceased is Shamsuzzaman Bhadu, 45, of Kunjanagar village, reports our Kushtia correspondent. Sources said lightning struck Bhadu while he was working at his cropland around 11:00am yesterday, leaving him dead on the spot. Meanwhile, in another incident, a woman and two minor girls were injured at Chandpur village when thunderbolt struck them at their house yard. In Brahmanbaria, thunderbolt killed three people, including a teenage girl in two upazilas of the district yesterday and the day before. Sources said, Sajeda Begum, 15, was working at a field at Mayarampur village in Bancharampur upazila when a thunderbolt struck her, leaving her dead on the spot. Meanwhile, Rakib Mia, 15, of Bhairab upazila in Kishoreganj district and Sahab Uddin, 22, of Krishnanagar village in Nabinagar upazila were struck by lighting when the duo along with their fellows were playing soccer at a nearby filed of the village, leaving them dead on the spot. In Bogra, two people were killed and four others injured by lightning in Sherpur upazila in Bogra on Wednesday. One of the deceased was identified as Tamanna Akhtar, 12, daughter of Kamal Hosain of Garidah union, but the name of the other deceased could not be ascertained immediately, reports our Bogra correspondent. In Moulvibazar, a man was killed and four others were injured by lighting at Kawakandi village in Tahirpur upazila of Sunamganj district on Wednesday, our Moulvibazar correspondent reported that. The deceased is Jahed Mia, 35, son of Rahman Mia of the village. Kabir Mia, one of the injured, said a thunderbolt struck Jahed along with few of them while they were fishing at a nearby water-body, leaving Jahed dead on the spot.
We have been very fortunate in the Gulf region for the past several years with the lack of a major cane in that region impacting as such at landfall.  For those who remember, there was a lot of talk a few seasons ago (including Dr. Masters) on the potential impact of an "oil cane" during the Horizon oil spill in the Gulf; thankfully, it did not happen that year.  We all know, and have been saying the old "Gulf is boiling-watch out" every September; that is a given but just noting that Gulf temps are particularly warm this year and particularly around the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straights; that is what a few months of consistent high pressure ridging, and lack of SAL proliferation that far West will do:
Got a new pouch



SYNOPSIS 2014081500

P19L
12N, 15E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Distinct pouch for the first couple days over Africa, becoming a bit more difficult to track at 72 hours. Tracks to the northwest over west Africa, emerging over the Atlantic at a relatively high latitude. Regains circulation over the ocean.

GFS: Similar NW track as ECMWF. Peak OW values on Days 3-4 while still over Africa.

UKMET: (Warning: Initial position is actually east of the domain boundary of 15E, so the indicated position is not correct, but a position must be assigned in order for the rest of the script to work.) Also tracks to the northwest, but does not gain as much latitude as ECMWF and GFS.

NAVGEM: A weak pouch is trackable for 36 hours before it weakens. After another day, there is indication of a little reintensification, but the temporal gap is too much to be certain it is P19L.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -10.2 v700 120h
GFS -9.9 v700 120h
UKMET -11.2 v700 120h
NAVGEM -9.8 v700 36h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
We have been very fortunate in the Gulf region for the past several years with the lack of a major cane in that region impacting as such at landfall.  For those who remember, there was a lot of talk a few seasons ago (including Dr. Masters) on the potential impact of an "oil cane" during the Horizon oil spill in the Gulf; thankfully, it did not happen that year.  We all know, and have been saying the old "Gulf is boiling-watch out" every September; that is a given but just noting that Gulf temps are particularly warm this year and particularly around the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straights; that is what a few months of consistent high pressure ridging, and lack of SAL proliferation that far West will do:
ROCKET FUEL!!!
right now P17L got a good spin with no rain in the center of low p18L start to move to far north and the dry air will eat it for lunch! and we have to wait unit p19L hit the water by next week
I know this is far out, but if ex-94L can manage to get into the GOM then watch out.

Quoting 713. FOREX:



Well, I guess we will be blogging about this for the next 600 posts. Oh well.


If it's just 600 posts, we should be done in oh say, an hour.
If we do get a storm in the Caribbean later on down the road headed towards the Western Caribbean on the way towards the Western tip of Cuba/Yucatan channel, we are going to see some pretty strong intensity modelling if sheer also cooperates at that time.  Looking pretty good shear-wise in that region at the moment but thankfully nothing there to develop this week:



Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good News for me during this lull period. Was planning to come to work tomorrow to get caught up and just got the e-mail; computers down over the weekend for updating. Guess I have to change plans and go fishing and just got the forecast for tomorrow morning in the Big Bend of Florida:

SATURDAY

Mostly Sunny

Mostly
Sunny

High: 93 F

There was a time when offices always closed on the weekend and you could always go fishing. Fishing will always do you more good than getting caught up on "work". I have yet to see a tombstone that said "I wish I would have spent more time at the office". :-)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
We have been very fortunate in the Gulf region for the past several years with the lack of a major cane in that region impacting as such at landfall. For those who remember, there was a lot of talk a few seasons ago (including Dr. Masters) on the potential impact of an "oil cane" during the Horizon oil spill in the Gulf; thankfully, it did not happen that year. We all know, and have been saying the old "Gulf is boiling-watch out" every September; that is a given but just noting that Gulf temps are particularly warm this year and particularly around the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straights; that is what a few months of consistent high pressure ridging, and lack of SAL proliferation that far West will do:

The thing is... there is still a lot of that oil still washing up on our coasts and barrier islands... even though it has been several years since the DW Horizon occurred, it would still drum up a huge amount of that oil that is hidden!!!
Stormy morning across many locations. I've got some action moving into my area here in S. Fort Myers (hearing the thunder rumbling).

Quoting 757. sar2401:

There was a time when offices always closed on the weekend and you could always go fishing. Fishing will always do you more good than getting caught up on "work". I have yet to see a tombstone that said "I wish I would have spent more time at the office". :-)
I am hoping that all the red ssts in the Gulf will translate into a few Redfish tomorrow on the flats between Caribelle and East Point on the coast so I can update my picture on here with a bigger one......................(Had to let that one go cause it was over our local 27" limit.........It clocked in at 31").
761. FOREX
Looks like 94L will be moving into hostile conditions soon. No chance for development according to TWC expert.
Does anyone think that ex94L will make it into the Gulf and western carribean
Extreme Weather in Nepal on Friday, 15 August, 2014 at 07:37 (07:37 AM) UTC.
Description
As the rains lashed the country since Wednesday, at least 10 people have died in floods and landslides while a major bridge on the East-West Highway caved in, cutting off the eastern region from the rest of Nepal. Six people went missing, hundreds of houses were inundated and transportation was obstructed along various roadways owing to water-induced disasters nationwide. A few houses were damaged while over a dozen people sustained injuries in the incidents. Security personnel have been mobilised to rescue victims. In Jajarkot, two persons died and as many others went missing in separate incidents of landslide on Thursday. Nabarati Bohara and her eight-year-old son were killed when a landslip swept away a house at Sakla-3. Three other family members were seriously hurt. The villagers rescued the injured three hours later. Deputy Superintendent of Police Chakra Bahadur Singh said Ishara Nepali and Prakash Nepali went missing in a landslide at Ramidanda-9, Jajarkot, in their bid to flee. Six people were injured. Jivan Rawal, a local, told the Post that the injured were deprived of treatment in the lack of a health facility close by and roads and bridges rendered impassable. Our correspondent in Rukum said two persons were buried in a landslide at Chunbang VDC-8 on Thursday evening.

Police identified the dead as Bimala Gharti and her brother Bijaya Gharti. Two others were injured. Five persons were swept away by floods in Morang, Sindhuli and Udayapur districts while four others went missing in similar incidents in Siraha, Udayapur and Dhanusha districts. In Morang, Karna Bahadur Kepchhaki of Letang and Khadga Bahadur Limbu of Barangi were swept while crossing rain-fed local streams. In Sindhuli, Bhakta Bahadur Shrestha of Hatpate was caught by the Kamala river in his bid to cross it. One Bhanubhakta Rai of Ilam was swept away by the Dwar stream in Udayapur, police said, while Gopal Bhitrikoti of Tulasi-2 was carried by the Sinduri stream in Dhanusha. In Chitwan, Renuka Chepang, a 22-year-old pregnant woman, died when a landslide crushed her while working in the field at Shaktikhor-2. Scores of houses were inundated in Banke, Bardiya, Chitwan, Rautahat, Sarlahi and Siraha districts, displacing hundreds of people. In Bardiya alone, about 300 houses were waterlogged at Mahammadpur and Gulariya. Vehicular movement came to a halt on the Dhanusha-Mahottari stretch of the East-West Highway as a bridge across the Ratu stream caved in. Authorities said the flood damaged a pillar to the west, sinking the bridge 38 cm. Sections of BP Highway, Koshi Highway and Beni-Jomsom road have also been disrupted. The volume of water in the Koshi river was recorded this year's highest 306,430 cusec on Thursday. Thirty-eight floodgates were opened in order to reduce the disaster risk.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
765. FOREX
Quoting 762. weatherman994:

Does anyone think that ex94L will make it into the Gulf and western carribean


I want it to, but don't have much hope.
Quoting 757. sar2401:

There was a time when offices always closed on the weekend and you could always go fishing. Fishing will always do you more good than getting caught up on "work". I have yet to see a tombstone that said "I wish I would have spent more time at the office". :-)


Hooray!
Been alot of volcano activity this week. Here's another in the Philippines that may blow.
Happy Friday all!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Stormy morning across many locations. I've got some action moving into my area here in S. Fort Myers (hearing the thunder rumbling).

Clear blue skies with a temperature 0f 82 and a dewpoint of 66 in SE AL. Our last nice day though, with temperatures expected to rebound to highs near 150 and a dewpoint of 120, with heat index of 297. No rain though. The atmosphere won't be all that unstable.
I'd like to see something spin up down in the Southern GOM.
Low shear, tons of moisture, 90 degree water.

very dangerous here this morning........................................... ........
Hey all.

Another day of anomalous onshore flow.

florida weather blog..............................Link