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Quiet Atlantic; police blow up weather station

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2007

There's not much to talk about in the Atlantic today. A tropical wave we were watching (97L), east of Bermuda, has moved north over colder waters and is no longer a threat to develop. A large area of Saharan dust and dry air is present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, which will discourage any development in this region over the next few days. Later in the week, the UKMET and ECMWF models are hinting that conditions may moisten enough for something to develop off the coast of Africa. However, tropical storm formation in this region is unusual in July, and I'd be surprised if something did develop.

The long range GFS model shows that the steering pattern for the next two weeks will be much different than what we saw in 2006 and so far in 2007. We will no longer have a dominant trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that will act recurve storms out to sea. Instead, an alternating series of weak ridges and weak troughs rippling along the jet stream is expected. No particular region of the Atlantic will be at higher risk of being hit with such a pattern.

Police robot blows up weather station
If you've never seen one before, familiarize yourself with what a weather stations looks like. State Police in Virginia had apparently never seen one before, and sent a police robot in to blow up a "suspicious object" hanging from a tree near a hospital in Virginia. The object turned out to be a home weather station. A tree is not a very good place to put a weather station--how can you measure accurate precipitation and winds there? Perhaps that's what the police were wondering, too, and this made them suspicious enough to terminate the threatening weather station.

In case you missed it, here's my analysis of the QuikSCAT science presented at Thursday's Congressional hearing.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

right TropicalMan07. Again, its a wait and see game. Right now everything is extremely disorganized.
GFS is the only model showing this. We need better model concensus.
Hi Brian!
I got ur email.
Nice synopsis Wederwatcher...When and where did Rita strike?
Does anyone know what happened in Plantation, FL tonight? Worst storm I've seen in a while.
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 1:48 AM GMT on July 24, 2007.

GFS is the only model showing this. We need better model concensus.


True, but the other models are hinting something. At least a SFC low.
if we where to get 98L from that wave where would it be going ???
509. RL3AO
Rita 2005 TX/LA boarder.
Taz its too early to tell anything like that. The GFS has the wave moving WNW.
Yeah Bystander...I've been asking that question all night! My friend on Old Hiatus Road had a several hundred pound, 20 x 30 canopy (bolted down to 2 x 4 or 6's) lifted and moved about 300-ft.! What did you see, hear?
chicklit, I was walking my dog and saw a palm tree snapped in half and several basketball hoops blown over. Microburst?
Night time helps with evaporative cooling (more convection) doesn't mean that the wave is trying to reorganize.
drak that gfs is showing development on the july 25 isnt that too soon . and if you notice the sal is moving faster west ahead of it then the wave is moving right . so the gfs could be right on target ?
Chicklit,
I live on Nob Hill, one street to the east.
Also tropical man it might not be this wave even though the GFS shows it in the general area of this wave. The Wave Axis of the current wave along 40W. the GFS shows something at 25W. My thinking is that it maybe be that wave coming of Africa.
Evening all ☺

I see the GFS has a CV system try to get going.
hey heres one zoom in 21 10 whats that clear spot on east atlantic water vapor
524. Alec
I'll be there StormW......I usually show up a little past 9am.
Bystander...Had to be a microburst in Plantation early evening, touched down on her 2+ acres...It was her birthday, too. No real harm done, just a nuisance to put the canopy back. Heavy as hell! Guess she's lucky it didn't hit the house.
Hi StormJunkie...when do you think we'll see our first organized system?
Evening SJ
TropicalMan it shows the pressure nearing 1000mb. Very hard to tell what exactly the GFS is picking up on.
JP,
GFS Model? We'll see but I keep hearing Mets in Orlando say its too dry in the ATL? Anyways good night DR.M's Blog!
Hey cl, winds, and everyone else, great to see everyone.

Got to get up for work at 4:30 so I am off to bed. Night all.

See everyone tomorrow ☺
Sorry cl, missed your ?

Aug 1st-5th...I'll be on vacation, you know Murphy and his laws...lol
You should be careful when reading those models... Hurricane Cosme was analysed at around 1000-1005 mb at peak intensity, the organization should also be checked (a small tight system is likely to be much stronger than a broad system).
Chicklit,
My guess is mid Aug.
Oh dear 97 you just refuse to go quietly. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg
TropicalMan07 1010mb is a strong tropical wave-Weak depression.
Take a look at this--never saw a child abduction emergency on the iwin site Link
Hi SJ, I am also on vacation from 1st -15th Aug. and spending 1 week in the Dom Rep so not getting out of hurricane alley for long. Will try to access WU from there. Dont need Murphys law to follow me there. LOL
Take a look at this--never saw a child abduction emergency on the iwin site Link


I see them all the time on the NWS site, and even help with them.
That's great Michael--I just never noticed them before.
Even Man-Yi, a supertyphoon, was never analysed as being more intense than 980 mb.
The storm about to come off Africa is showing a 1002 mb low, but it also looks to roll off at about 25n...a lil high unless it curves to sea maybe.

Plus, our high anchored in the mid-atl is pushing south all the way to the SA coast. Whoa!
ok everyone the gfs might be right the atl. is getting alittle fired up right now at this hour stay tuned .
Oh no stormy, what's happening? I haven't had a chance to check in all day.
Oh no stormy, what's happening? I haven't had a chance to check in all day

not too much yet charles we are watching the wave in the atl that the gfs says will form on the july 25 . stay tuned
An interesting page from the US Geological Survey on volcanic CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions are now 130 times the combined CO2 emissions of all volcanoes on earth on the land and under the sea!
Link
I think we'll get 98 soon, Tuesday, maybe? Just look at this thing rolling off of Africa!

Link

...and funny somewhere this evening, on one of the models, I think I saw some fujiwara thing happening, unless I was dreaming???
551. Rodek
Good evening all. Here's my question of the night....

How far is it, as the crow flies, from the coast of Africa to the East coast of the US?

4,000 miles or so
553. Rodek
Thank you for the answe stsimons. That is quite a journey over water.
From the Verdes to the southern tip of FL, approximately 3661 miles.
Yes it takes time. Of course the lesser Antilles are a lot closer.
thats alot of time for a storm to get strong
moonlightcowboy...that was a pretty impressive blob rolling off the coast. Wonder if it will hold together?
goodnight all.
No idea, scwinds. May just be 98, temps warm enough and shear even expected to drop in that area. Less SAL, too, there. jmho
Looks like we have some conditions for cyclogenesis. We need to see an llc and organized convections! lol

Thanks, Drakoen!
hmm MLC maybe i should make the requirements more specific lol.
563. CJ5
The wave of Africa we were watching this am has not built up any convection around the spin located now at 33/15. It is only a shell like the previous wave. I appears what the GFS is forecasting is the wave behind this one. Though the sat pic of it does not look near as impressive as the waves before it. Wait and see....
564. CJ5
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:11 AM GMT on July 24, 2007.

hmm MLC maybe i should make the requirements more specific lol.


If it is this quiet in Aug you need to relax the requirements a little or some may need straightjackets..lol
MLC i updated my blog on that section.
LOL, Drakoen! Looked like a good spot to put that!

...what's your take on what's going to happen with it?

(and,I'd like to send you an email, too!)
97 looks as good as ever sitting on the gulf stream
look at this wave i ues my paint to show you that is one hell of a big wave


MLC i don't know what gonna happen all i see is disorganized convection in the ITCZ with the current wave. My thinking is that the GFS is picking up on the wave near the coast of Africa. Or the wave of Africa is going to enhance the convection at the back edge of wave axis of the current wave.
From Drakoen's "updated" blog:

Conditions for tropical cyclogenesis:
1. Warm-water: 80 degrees Farenheit plus
2. Low shear 0-10kts in some rare cases near 25kts.
3. Organized Convection- thunderstorm activity
4. Low level circulation- coriolis effect; which causes the rotation of the system.

All of these conditions must be met for a tropical storm to form.

Unfavorable conditions:
1. water below 80 degrees
2. high shear
3. low to no convection
4. no evident low level circulation
5. Proximity to land
6. Dry Air



...lol, Drakoen, agreed!
drak that gfs was from july 22 before the other waves starting to show up so i beleieve its the current one around 30 west now .
Stormybil, everything is too disorganized to tell. Look at the cyclone phase diagram. The GFS has the low developing at 10n 25w.

There is a pretty big wave near the coast Africa so we will see what that does on Tuesday.
575. CJ5
Looking at the hemisphere view it appears England is not going to get any breaks on the rain anytime soon.

That appears huge, Taz...at this time.
With the training starting to take hold, one of these bad boys will surely have a chance.
the GFS 0z is coming out now so we will see if it still is forecasting development. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped development.
For us lurkers/newbies when you post a map can you put a line in the post that explains a) what the map is, and b) what we're supposed to see in it?

That would go a long way towards educating us newbies. Just one sentence would help us a lot! :)

Thanks and back to lurking. Been a weather freak all my life but the transition from Midwest storms to Carolina storms has me a bit flustered!
You may be right drak. I just looked at the GFS 0z July23 and 0z july22. What a difference 24 and especially 48 hours can make in a model forecast.
Violet312s if you are talking about the map i posted a while ago, it shows the GFS forecast.(Global Forecasting System). That map shwos where the low starts and ends (at the end of the run) as well as its intensity measure in millibars
Violet312s

Here is a link to the GFS model run. Animate it, and Look at the system off the coast of Africa.
Link
Here is a link to the GFS model run. Animate it, and Look at the system off the coast of Africa.
Link

is that the new run nothing has change it showed that yesterday too thanks
No it is not the new run
The current run which is just coming out is on the NOAA page and can be found here.Look at the dates and times for the latest run.
Link
is the new one out yet
Drak: Was not asking you specifically, but thanks! That helps!

My comment was more for all the WU regulars.

As a note my first realization that the Carolinas were not like the Midwest was when I drove into Isabel. I'd prefer not to do that ever again! Tornado Alley experience does not equal Hurricane Alley. I have much to learn!

(back to lurking)
587. AndyN
scwindsaloft: pretty impressive. It does seem as if the peak will be starting right on que. I exchanged e mails with my friend Phil Klozbatch of the Tropical Meteorolgy Project and asked his thoughts. He advised their next forecast will be Aug 3rd. Will be intersting to see the update.
For anyone else watching the GOM There is an interesting spot along the front just off north west fla. The Shear is rather strong there but there seems to still be a good storm on the radar. Buoys are so so and show a slight low.
JF that looks like upper level diffluence from an upper level trough.
drak is the gfs still hinting at development?
thats easy for you to say! but yea still its a bit over.
So far the images from the GFS 0z aren't impressing me... (66 hours out)
.
la la la lol where ohh where is all the Atlantic action . did someone miss calculate again .hummm maybe .The NAo hasnt supported it huh . well dog gone for the hunters and for the people hurray hurray . Thank you very much for the miss calculations on the Atlantic season . he he he . but they are experts hummm ok . have a good day .even if the patterns comes around to a more agreeable way then the season is still not as likely to produce the 17 original storms and the 4 major huricanes that was expected . ok but seriously the curent pattern will be persistant enough that when thier is a change it will reverse back to its main pattern . whitch is blocking so only a short spert here and thier remaining for the big one lol anyway most likely the gulf and carribean areas giving rise to minimum impact from large dangerous huricanes . to reverse the current a total pattern change will be needed like a rise in el'nino this mounth and a continued rise in the index untill late Nov for the pattern to reverse enough for a late season rally . note this is not expert idiology but only a novice guess .have a good day . hope it atleast gives you something to talk about sence the blog is right now very boring . have a good one ounce again . ooh yea namely in the 3.4 region .watch it closely!!
Dew
lol...dewfree, I don't understand your point.

Well, good night everybody.

And, yes, tonight there isn't anything really to track...the only thing to watch, is maybe those waves rolling off of Africa. Soon enough one will form...It can't stay like this all season.
Have a good sleep, WB.

Yes, "through deprivation comes plenty"...soon enough indeed!
Violet, welcome to NC (I know this is very belated)! We've been pretty fortunate since Isabel in 03. With all of the storms in 2005 missing us, it was like that scene in Dumb and Dumber where Harry pulls out the gun and fires several times at the bad guy and misses ("Harry, you're ALIVE!! And you're a REALLY bad shot!")

Here's hoping 07 will keep those nasty canes away!
Floodie
T'man, don't sweat it. It's late, most are off and sleeping. Me, too, soon!

Yes, tomorrow appears to be interesing for sure. Each day moves us closer to excitement...and dread!
I think we're getting close to Chantal. Unless a sfc low forms in the Caribbean soon, a catl wave is bound to develop first. There are too many rolling off the coast now. Each one soaks up dust and replaces dry air.

It'll happen...and likely tomorrow the train will pull out of the station! lol
there isnt much to track that will become anything important atleast for two more weeks andmaybe more . that is the point of all that lol see ya have a good nite for sure
this season is much like the last season in that there is blocking going on and anyway i dont expect the first good storm until frt sep and not many more after that
T'man, just means wave after wave rolling off the African coast. (sorry)
I'd have to disagree there, dewfree.

We've had several candidates for the C storm - they've all been sheared to death either in the Caribbean or in the WATL, just east of there.

Now that the shear has relaxed a little and the patterns are shifting - there's a H getting ready to replace the L in the east right now - get ready...
No - the only piece that is a problem in the Caribbean right now is shear. If it wasn't for the 40kts+ shear right now - that wave just exiting the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche would stand a chance of being your "C" storm.

As it stands, I believe that one will go the way of 96L - into the shear graveyard...

It's possible. That's why we use models for processing the data and providing interpretations.
MLC - were you around for my contract comment earlier?
613. Blink
One of the most trustable models is the GFS. I am not gonna get down to conclusion until the next few runs.
i belive the gfs is correct its now the time to keep close tabs in the atlantic .
Trustable is a relative term.

GFS was a cyclogenesis powerhouse last year. Now the mantle has been passed to the CMC...

GFS may be right on the wave, tho. Enough moisture, no horrible shear, SSTs in range - it could happen. I'd watch for a shift in the ITCZ, though - that would trap it and kill it very quickly. It's happened several times already this season...
I'm sorry, Niceville. Which comment? I think so, the NOLA contract? What's that about?

L8R, T'man!
The biggest problem will be that shear is forecast to rise to the "unfavorable" level in the area of that wave in about 44 hours time...
Nothing much, science-wise.

Just I moved to the FL panhandle in '94. We had several bad TS that year - Opal the next and a progression after that.

I went to NOLA on contract August 21, 2005. You know what happened there...

I just took another contract in NOLA. My friends were joking earlier that NOLA better watch it - the hurricane magnet is coming back to town...

I told Pat to strap some pontoons on that trailer and make room for my sister and her kids...
many candidates will come and go but tell me where will the storm come from that you can see and of course it isnt rocket sience where it will go but where will it come from ??
Teaching, medical, or storm related business?

You related to Jim Cantore? lol
SW made a comment earlier about steering currents. If you look at the forecast, it's not very kind to the entire gulf coast from LA and points east...

While I don't think anything will come of it, I'm watching that wave that's egressing into the Bay of Campeche - we've had several bad storms come in from that creche...
to be honest im just messing around here i havent even watched closely enough to be in the discusion . i have kind of droped in and droped out so far this season . I havent heard anything promising so i havent stayed in the game , but i dont for see the storm that will grasp my attention to get me in the game untill sept 1rst threw 10th . that ime persiond is hot and will most likely be the time i get in the game watching tropical systems come and go . . not really all that into this blog right now watching kick boxing lol be have have a good one see ya later
LOL - MLC!

No - not related - but I do stay at Holiday Inn Express when I'm on the road...

Seriously - I'm in IT - consulting - going over to help out Ochsner Medical Services. Unfortunately, the campus is down on the river - right where you don't want to be in a storm...

My entire family (excepting one sis) is in NOLA, so it works for me - I have distractions from the problems there. But it was nice to be on the scene when dad (74 yrs old) needed help after Katrina...
Gotta punch out - have soccer taxi in the morning. Will check in b4 I hit the road...
Great story, Niceville! Hopefully, you won't be a storm magnet this time...lol.

...though I have nothing to back it up with really, for some reason I think Chantal will be a Texas landfalling storm. Probably will be a fizzle, but we'll see soon enough, I'm sure!
Have a good sleep, Nice and t'man!
632. Blink
The steering currents is not looking good for the Gult coast as MrNiceville pointed out.
Link
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Tue Jul 24 2007

...Atlantic Ocean...
large deep layered low is over the E US extending into the W Atlc N of 26n W of 74w with a associated surface trough extending into the region near 32n75w over Florida near Lake Okeechobee. The large upper high in the W Caribbean extends a ridge axis across central Cuba NE to 33n62w covering the remainder of the W Atlc W of 60w giving the area small clusters of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms W of 70w. An upper low is in the central Atlc centered near 24n52w covering the area N of 17n from 48w-60w. An upper ridge covers the E Atlc E of 30w extending E/W along 23w. A surface ridge with dry stable air covers the Atlc E of 65w anchored by a 1032 mb high and a 1031 mb high well N of the region producing only fair weather clouds across the remainder of the area.

$$
Wallace


MLCgoodnight4.gif

Have a good sleep, all!
MLC <---------------------out for some shut-eye!
Hello to any nocturnal creatures out there. I suppose I'll give my two cents on when things will flair up. It appears that things are about to start popping. I'd say we will start seeing things by the end of the first week of August into the second week. We will see three in a row lining up for a couple of weeks and then nothing for two more weeks (clean up somewhere) in early September followed by another spat of storms towards the middle to end of September and then a few more gulf storms in middle October running into early November. Of course this is a wild ass guess (wag) but hey let's face it, hurricane season is as predictable as it is unpredictable. As I mentioned a few weeks back, hurricane season should begin Aug. 1st not June 1st. and end November 15th. Sure storms fall outside these dates but then again hurricanes have formed in every month.
I believe things will start to flare up by July 31. For some reason, that date sticks out to me, since TD3 that would become Chris in 2006 formed on July 31. After that, I predict about 4 storms in August, bringing us up to Felix. In September, I predict that we will get about 6 storms, bringing us up to Lorenzo. In October, I predict we'll get 2 more storms, bringing us up to Noel. In November, I believe we'll get Olga.
Drak if you are still out there look at the 850 vort too. There is some lower level activity in the NE gulf I think.

Station 42007 - BILOXI 22 nm South-Southeast of Biloxi, MS

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 115 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 F

GRAPH

Also the everyones favorite model, the NAM (heheh) seems to have something kinda interesting forming up in the western gulf towards the weekend.
JFLORIDA, looking at that link, some nice vorticy by the Cape Verde islands as well.
yea that one will be a good one I think.

GFS cyclone phase gulf area.
the low over africa is 1003mb hmmmm
Don't forget that heat also causes low pressure areas to form. Africa is hot, so naturally, waves have low pressures. That probably aids in cyclogenesis. A 1003 mb low is quite low though, but I've seen this happen too many times this season only to do nothing.
Drak if you are still out there look at the 850 vort too. There is some lower level activity in the NE gulf I think.

Looking on radar not much convection is associated with this area. Pressure is around 1011.

Given the increased shear, a steering flow that favors a quick NE movement, and this lows proximity to land any type of spin-up is unlikely to occur.
the wave comming off the coast of africa on the 384 hour run of the GFS model is an echo for a later date . the model is a very good model it see;s things long before they arrive on seen .sometimes that is .but rember it is too far out to be any good to you and me .niether you or I can use this data at present time for anything other then close observance of the next run to see how it pans out . make no mistake about it sooner or later it will pan out but dont expect the time runs to be accurate in theleast ;also the global model changes with veriation so you know how it is . i guess with nothing happening the search way out like this is what goes lol see ya later have a good one you guys . im out of here ounce again .
contradiction sometimes yields the best results . however please dont take it to heart . just a tool i use generate a better understanding of the wider and much bigger pic . no and i mean no forecast is solid in a world with liquid motion involved in the processes.
645. VTG
HUGE thunderstorms in Pensacola right now!
I'm over in Hudson and have been monitoring this through out the morning. Strong thunderstorms seem headed towards Hernando County stretching down to Pinellas County.
Morning all ☺

Looks like the GFS is calling for pretty significant develop off the coast of Africa.

Easily find many model pages from here.
By: StormJunkie at 12:11 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.

Morning all ☺

Looks like the GFS is calling for pretty significant develop off the coast of Africa.

Do you know how soon??
Good Morning all. So is the tropics still quite? Been really sick and haven't been able to get on that much.
maybe we'll have a parade of storms this year. like there was in 1995
Another 48 hour reprieve, sweet.

If it can just stretch out this way for another 10 days, I can stay home for the wife's b-day. My focus is the CV sourced storms.
657. IKE
It's raining here right now in the panhandle of Florida.

Rain/thunder and 71 degrees.
I'll make a prediction, sometime in the 3 - 4 weeks, the 48 hour message will be replaced.
661. IKE
NEW BLOG!
SW Monsoon weather reached here (tahoe) yesterday. First clouds in oh say, 3 or 4 months. Forecast is 50% this AM and 40% this afternoon for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers.