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Puerto Rico disturbance weakens; powerful Typhoon Xangsane threatens Vietnam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2006

The tropical wave over the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands (designated 97L by the NHC yesterday) has weakened. The wave is north of Puerto Rico this morning, and could bring some heavy rains to that island today. The system is very small and disorganized, and the 10-15 knots of wind shear over it will probably not allow such a small system to develop. You can follow the progress of 97L today on long range Puerto Rico radar.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 97L.

Typhoon Xangsane
The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead and assess the damage left by Typhoon Xangsane, which roared over the main Philippine Island of Luzon Wednesday, passing directly over the capital city of Manila. At least 60 are dead and another 60 missing, with many hard-hit areas still to be heard from, due to failed communications and washed out roads. The majority of the victims died in mudslides, flash floods, and building collapses. Xangsane cut power to all 43 million people on the island of Luzon, making it one of the most extensive blackouts due to natural disaster in world history. Power had been restored to about 40% of the island this morning. Xangsane (from the Laotian word for Elephant) hit as a Category 4 typhoon with 145 mph winds before weakening during its passage over land. It has reintensified today into a Category 4 typhoon over the South China Sea, and is expected to deliver a heavy blow to Vietnam on Sunday.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Typhoon Xangsane over the Philippines as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. The pink color represents about ten inches of rain. Image credit: NASA TRMM Project.

Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to look unimpressive, thanks to dry air on the south side being drawn in, wind shear from an upper level low, and passage over some cool ocean waters stirred up by hurricanes Gordon and Helene. All of these influences should diminish a bit over the next day, which may allow Isaac the opportunity to do some modest intensification. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and should recurve out to sea this weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A strong cold front has pushed off the North American coast, and is serving as the focus of some thunderstorm development from the Bahamas southwestward through the waters south of Florida. We'll have to watch this region over the coming days for some possible development. However, the computer models are no longer forecasting development along this old front.

Next week, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form in the mid-Atlantic south of the Azores Islands, and this system may make the transition to a tropical storm like Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta did last year.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, and I'll post my outlook for October on Monday. We might be done with landfalling hurricanes for the year!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think that the honor for weirdest storm so far goes to Gordon, a very rare Azores hurricane; it also intensified over cooler than 80 degree water to a Category 2 (the NHC even started to use some of the same nonsense in their advisories that they used during Epsilon). It almost made landfall in Spain as a tropical system and even then winds over 100 mph occurred; while Vince was a tropical system, it was barely a depression at landfall.
Gordon 06 versionLink
Have a nice evening everyone. Good night.
another view from Gordon..eastbound..Link
Gnite Gatorx
Does anyone think that Isaac will get close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds there?
..Based on the current track..No...
best bet is to pull up the Bermuda local mets scientific forecast on their local Wunderground page
they know the local ins & out & what will happen on the Island with a storm..based on their own best judgement
Posted By: watchdog40 at 12:32 AM GMT on September 30, 2006.

I live in Navarre Fl by Pensacola, and about an hour ago I went to get gas and everyone was filling up and filling up containers? I look on here every day, am I missing something?

*I live in Navarre as well. I don't believe it has anything to do w/ the weather but I could be wrong. CH. 3 News Weather mentioned a wave in between the Gulf and the Carribean tonight. Personally, I think it is due to the low gas prices of the moment. I noticed the activity at a corner store at about 11am this morning.
Heres the Bermuda link..but I dont see no scientific forecast link on itLink
I see no threats from the Tropics to the CONUS thru Monday
..must be the prices...
..theres a wave in the western Caribbean ,,that may..I stress ..may interact with the tail end of the front..but sevelopment would be slow....
Glad to hear that, Patrap!

No threats mean we get to play on this site w/o worry.

I realize other threats may pop up- that's the way the ball bounces (and that's what it's up to depending on)!
.all the models have backed off from the Yucatan scenario..but I still give it 20% chance to develop ..past Monday. Due to its location Historically
Posted By: Patrap at 8:39 PM CDT on September 29, 2006.
Heres the Bermuda link..but I dont see no scientific forecast link on itLink


tyour Link does not work
Heres the models..click on submit ..then run the model after it loads...Link
Yeah I have to say that the wave north of Puerto Rico sure doesn't look like much....
try this Bermuda linkLink
another great Bermuda linkLinkie..
..POOF!..dissapated..fot the most..King Shear...LOL!
..Darn skeeters in My FEMA trailer..Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
evere one ban WunderGuy727 from your blog now
And don't post in his blog; he will call you the F word and other stuff!
NEW..Google video..similar format as youLinktube of Hurricane Charley
Typhoon Xangsane AKA Milenyo to those living in the Philippines...you tube storm video.
A must see..Katrinas surge from the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet,..MRGO..as it floodedLink St Bernard Parish..17 miles east of me...
..heres the link..loaded this time...Link
Hi ...I was hoping I could get an answer to a question I had. Every year, around mid to late Autumn I have taken notice of a shift in flow direction of the storms centered over the tropics. During hurricane season all tropical wave flow from East to West, but at some point there seems to be a shift and either this flow is reversed or it stops. Can someone explain to me what is actually happening? I ask this because I've noticed that the westerly flow seems to be slowing again, and I have never understood why this occurs.

Thanks
Patrap-

How's it going in your neck of the woods lately? Are you truly in a FEMA trailer still?

I'm sure you've answered these q's on another post but I didn't get to see them.

I am from Pass Christian and my family has been thru #$%& trying to get any relief. No good news for them- I hope you are faring a little better.
MichaelSTL
its gotta be Issac its so small yet intesifing
fast over way cooler waters
The waters are not cooler; Gordon intensified over water that was only 23-24*C (73-75*F); Issac is currently moving over water that is 26-27 C, warm enough to support a hurricane. Also, Gordon violated the maximum potential intensity maps (according to these, it should have been a weak TS when it hit the Azores; note that the potential intensity has changed since Gordon).
Yup..sorry to hear your troubles too.Click on my nic to see myblog pics..
dproyr1 do u have the noaa map with thumbnails from Katrina?
Posted By: Patrap at 2:22 AM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Yup..sorry to hear your troubles too.Click on my nic to see myblog pics..

** I'm new to this site. How do I do that?
My FEMA trailer with HEMI a/c boost..LOLLink
What about the new African wave thats exits the west coast?? Any chance for develop and go west toward the Antilles? Thanks and good night everyone.
Incredible! I didn't even know how to get to my website and Patrap applies pictures!! Boy, am and I ignorant or what?! :)

Thanks for the input.
heres the new waves exitingLink
Hello
Just click on my name Patrap in blue on this post..itll take ya to my blog
hello cyberteddy
Took me since March to figure this darn stuff out dpryor1..LOL
@ least my FEMA trailer is all electric..no gas to go BOOM!..no needa bada boom!..LOL!
..a sweet song from the 27windows...ty
Hawaiis last big Hurricane ,,,Iniki..1992Link
..click on that last image to enlarge..the eye is right over the Island...
I'm soooooooo bored......I wish my husband would come home.
My husband grew up on Maui.
UH-Freaking..Ohhhhh!...
..Know the feeling..was in Japan..Okinowa from Sept 82-Sept 83..was depressing sometimes..Except Supertyphoon Annie came by..and sideswiped us..was kinda like home..LOL!
He even has a tiny Lightning Bolt in between his thumb and forefinger....typical surfer boy....tanned and blonde. Still is....that is if I remember correctly.....haven't seen him in so many days.
Posted By: ihave27windows at 2:42 AM GMT on September 30, 2006.

He even has a tiny Lightning Bolt in between his thumb and forefinger....typical surfer boy....tanned and blonde. Still is....that is if I remember correctly.....haven't seen him in so many days.


Hm...interesting.
Interesting.....why do you say that?
Got drunk on 21 st birthday and got this on his right upper armLink
Mainly because of the Lightning Bolt thing. I haven't seen that on surfers before. Just something new to me.
Lightning Bolt is, or was a brand of surfer clothing and surfing accesories....Like Ocean Pacific.
Isaac's now just shy of cane status. Maybe the 16-year streak of "I" hurricanes won't be broken after all! It's still looking somewhat subtropical, though, and the southwestern quadrant remains completely devoid of convection.
Also, the middle of Isaac's cone inow takes it directly over Newfoundland, and shifts farther west with each advisory it seems.
Oh, I see. That makes alot more sense now.

I don't think they're still around anymore though. Don't see alot of the surfer kids wearing that brand.

Now, I know its especially rude to ask a woman her age. But I am very curious for some reason. So if you don't mind, how old are you?
Evening all. It's funny that Isaac was never supposed to reach hurricane strength - but he's already nearing it! Original forecast was max winds of 50kts - now 65kts, looks like they messed up on that one!
l
Sprock - I think you're overexagerating the "completely devoid of convection" comment:



That light blue is convection. Any decrease in cloud temperatures (thunderstorm formation) in that area and we'll have an eye...
Issac more xtratropical each hour..but will have to see the pressure fall off a lil more..to become a classic neutercane..
Good example of why Isaac is near hurricane strength:



Nice symmetrical eye already showing up as a tropical storm (possible hurricane).
Hm, I am pretty surprised. I didn't expect that from Isaac.
Patrap - Right now he isn't near extratropical! He's turning into a small, compact hurricane quickly - you'll most likely see a complete eye tomorrow morning.
..neutercane..Link
spect she might drop down as low as 972-5
I don't mind.....I'm 42. Still very hot though....sometimes I'm hot because I have hot flashes, but most of the time I'm just dar Hott.

My husband had to fire his assist. manager and his third key holder because they were writing fraudulent loans. That is why I haven't seen him in days, and days. He is working 14 to 16 hour days. Things should return to normal soon.
I could see that already happening Patrap. You are correct that the pressure was a little higher earlier - but now 995mb is starting to appear more tropical than extratropical - and based on Dvorak images the pressure is dropping quicker now, and the center core is warming and clearing out - expect a hurricane by 5am.
Issac still wicked lil punch..in the open Atlantic..nasty bugger to sail or ship thru..
..yeah..looks like 2 more days till she will expand out and lose the warm core
Theres a big blowup above Issac along the front west/sw..of the Coast
Could this approach Maine enough for them to have to issue Hurricane or TS watches and possably winds
Ya I could see 2 days - Remember Gordon stayed a tropical cyclone with quite a punch (and strengthened) when it was supposed to be weakening and transitioning into extratropical - which didn't occur until a pass over the Azores - so wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac hold on a little longer than expected.
Hm, thats no good. Hard to find someone to rely on. Hope all goes back to normal soon. I am sure he is missing seeing his hot wife. : )
Thunderclound - Isaac won't come within 200 miles of Maine - and will most likely be extratropical, so I highly doubt any kind of tropical warnings and/or watches will be issued. The waters are too cold up there and it wouldn't be able to get there before a front picks him up and takes him out to sea. Maybe some troubles for Newfoundland...
582. TVS
The Atlantic looks warm enough for Isaac to strengthen to a weak Hurricane
..spect you right in that ..the Northern route has seen lotsa traffic this year and to points east ..again
Hurricane Issac Hayes.."Shaft"..One bad Mutha..LOL...How low can Issac go?...
Thanks how stong will it get???
I'd say there is a good chance he gets to be an 80-85mph hurricane before he starts really feeling the effects of the front. Of course, Gordon got picked up by a front but didn't really feel the effects (and even strengthened) until he was almost to Europe - so it's possible he gets stronger than 85mph, but not by much...
It could pull a Gorden and strengthen to a cat 2 but that would be odd
Isaac might have a shot of weak two status. But I'd say no more than that.
Maxing out at around 95-105 MPH. Thats the very most we'll probaly see out of Isaac, if even that.
I agree with you Ron - Isaac won't get higher than 100mph in my opinion, but after 2004 and 2005, I'll believe anything could really happen! LOL
How low can Issac go?

i say Issac will get to 882mbs


now back to the weather lol
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 3:22 AM GMT on September 30, 2006.

I agree with you Ron - Isaac won't get higher than 100mph in my opinion, but after 2004 and 2005, I'll believe anything could really happen! LOL


lol, yep..those seasons were quite some eye openers. They also put people on the edgy side though. Many of us are anticapating a U.S. hurricane landfall from 2006. They tend to think that it must happen. When in actuality, it has happened many times. More times than 20+ storms formed in one season I'll tell ya that! lol
29/2345 UTC 29.9N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ISAAC
29/1745 UTC 29.7N 56.5W T3.0/3.0 ISAAC
29/1145 UTC 29.2N 55.8W T2.0/2.5 ISAAC
I know what ya Ron - Of course, we've got two months left, and development in the Gulf and Caribbean increases again (on average), so U.S. coast residents aren't out of the clear for another two months, but at the most maybe a tropical storm (or two) and MAYBE one hurricane, but of course there could be none (lets cross our fingers for that option)! I think people might be getting a little off guard now that nothing has been happening - and it's possible they get surprised...
Isaac gets the boot too! LOL!

track Isaac
No doubt, Kyle. Could very well happen.
Melagoo - LOL!

Where did you get that map? It has Issac at 50 kts? Huh? -

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 30.1N 57.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 30.5N 58.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 31.5N 59.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 33.5N 61.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 36.5N 61.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0000Z 51.0N 45.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
But if you looked deeper into the 2006 season, its obvious that it could have been a very memorable one. If the U.S was farther east, we would have been smashed by Florence, Gordon, and Helene. Two of which were major hurricanes. Had Ernesto's interaction with land been less effective, Florida could have seen one heck of a storm.
This is what i think will happen
At 5 am it will become a Cane
It will for somereason get i little bit closer
to the US and cause some big swells and kill someone.
Then she goes out to sea after reaching its max intesity of a CAT 2
Intellicast has it pegged there - Navy has it at 60 kts

Link
How low can Issac go?

i say Issac will get to 882mbs


now back to the weather lol
Ya Ron - The U.S. has been lucky this season! I think it's good because it gives people time to recover from last year - kind of a break season. Let's just hope it doesn't make up for the little activity (more like average) next year!
Swans are looking to see how low Isaac will go?

looking for Isaac
entertainment hour..LOL!
Since nobody posted it:

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2006

...ISAAC NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...745 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISSAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.1 N...57.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
oh well .....
This is interesting:



The BAM Medium takes 97L in an almost exact replication (a little farther south) of Katrina's track. It needs to be remembered that Katrina formed from a depression (invest) that dissipated, then regenerated towards the Bahamas - let's just hope it doesn't happen with this one!
lol, I seen that one too, Kyle.
nothing much left of that invest...POOF!
Let me talk .... Carol!! LOL !!
Cat-3 cockroach..
LOL Ron - Makes me laugh every time. I'm allergic to cockroaches, but I wouldn't freak out like that! LOL!
: Ron5244 now where did you find that at and do you have the main link to it
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:04 AM GMT on September 30, 2006.

: Ron5244 now where did you find that at and do you have the main link to it


Well, if you look up weatherman in the YouTube.com search bar, you'll find some funny ones.
LOL cockroach dude
A so called Jim Cantore recording...haha funny though
Is that blowing against the microphone supposed to be wind? LOL
Melagoo, hate to burst your bubble, but that picture is a fake.
Melagoo, hate to burst your bubble, but that picture is a fake

I know I found it searching for funny hurricane stuff - LOL! I think the water would be a tad rough LOL!
Are we Blogged down?
Ha ha!
Man that was funny!
Jedi Fight huuuuuaaaaaa
The dude with the blue is me on Monday morings
at my collage vrs my teacher
Just lurking and laughing !! :)
You guys are to funny tonight! :)
632. TVS
With the season not churning up much why not laugh a bit
I agree!
It is only 43.2 here :c(
where's here?
I will keep wearing my shorts though LOL!
your a die hard! my kinda person!

Not me though....heater is on & fluffy robe!
I'm at the west end of Lake Ontario between Hamilton and Toronto
I'm in Wisconsin
Southern Girl in the Midwest.
Burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
That can be cold too ... I think we will be in for some warmer weather though .... :c)
They say next week..but you know how that goes!
Well I am hitten the pillows, have a great weekend!
You too! I'm halfway there myself!
How low can Issac go?

i say Issac will get to 882mbs



now back to the weather lol
hhmmmmm.ppssssttt...ahhhhh
CybrTeddy...lol,that was revenge (newguy)
Knock,Knock...? anyone home?
Zzzz
Just giving back what the bottles gave to me if yall know what I mean!
FRAN!
Yes i can now post photos
Now that was cool right there!
go to my blog and u will find out
Andrew
Now hence my new appilatey to post photos
lets play a guessing game
Now this is off subject but I think that most of you are from the south and see this alot. High dew points, being from the North West I never see a real humid day. That was until a mid August day when a thunderstorm or something near by pumped vary humid air into my area. We have NO air conditioner and the heat here is a dry one, however that day on a 106 degree afternoon the dew point when from 56 to 74 in a little over an hour. YA I FELT IT! and will never forget how awful it made me FEEL! not only that, but we were moving to Portland that day and guess who had to carry the boxes up a 60 foot flight of stairs!. To this day I have no idea of what caused that horrid humidity could anyone give me and explanation of what happend.
Charley, Wilma and Luke.
Also I did not get one wink of sleep that night- SWEATY!.


Well theres Issac
U mean charley wilma and ANAKIN!
Issac: The phsically handicapped storm.

Be nice, down't stare at the poor thing.
Sorry not a Star Wars geek, my teacher is though.


Models for Issac

Shes going out to sea

oh crap
Sorry but Issac is one homely storm.
Please down't mind what i'm trying to say cuzz i'm being honest.
no problem
almost 3 am
Here's what Joe Bastardi at Accuweather says:

TROPICS: Isaac is probably going to hit Newfoundland Monday as the eastern part of the noreaster that develops Sunday night and Monday off the northeast coast. In fact it will be interesting to watch southeastern New England get heavy rains and strong northeast winds even as Newfoundland is getting heavy rains and strong east to southeast winds., Point it that another Atlantic storm will become stronger further north relative the averages of such things...keeping with the pattern this year so far. However the next 2-3 weeks starting Monday do have cause for some concern. For the gulf next week I feel that the mid and latter part of the week has a good chance ( lets call it 50-50) for development west of 90 west and south of 25 north. The tropical wave in the western Caribbean is the real deal now, not the sucker punch that was simply a product a couple of days ago of upward motion caused by the ridge. Now the wave is under the ridge. This will moves slowly west under the mean eastern trough and probably not get caught. Following it is the low pressure near 63 west and 10 north. This should be near the Yucatan by next Wednesday. Then there is the front that will come into the gulf and stall, along with the ridge building over the southern plains and migrating east and the pattern pulse of upward motion coming east to support my theory. European 5 day rain amounts in this area of the gulf reach 10 inches by next Saturday, though it has no solid development, that is a heck of a lot of convection with a low level trough stuck in there from all the above features. So I would think that we have development here in the Wednesday-Friday period, but if that step happens, then its still a mystery as to where it goes, as it may sit there for several days. Since this is a bold call in the first place ( just the development threat) Lets try to see if I have an idea on this first before taking step two. Given the nature of the season it may be very tough to get anyone to buy into this anyway until it actually is happening, but it is the area to watch given the set up.



The second area will be late next week into the week after from the eastern and central Caribbean with a mind to try to affect the east coast the week of the 8th as the trough comes back to the east. Again we are talking a long way off for any development and then of course the pattern would have to behave just right. I think the first concern would be the possibility of the gulf development next week.



we gotta remember that the trend on here is that joe bastardi has absolutely no clue. interesting to see if everyone suddenly starts listening to him. why do i think you will???
No one here???
Really is no one here??? Saturday most must still be sleeping and do not want to check on our to be Hurricane that is having doop convection beginning to wrap all the way around the eye and that it will probably be a Hurricane with winds of 80-85 mph next advisory
Good Morning
"Hello, hello, hello.
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone at home?"
Good morning, You Are.
Good Morning all!!
You're up early for such a young buck.
Good Morning all
Isaac near Hurricane Status, expected to hit Newfoundland:

While I am sure that many of you are thrilled at your new found ability to post graphics, they take a lot of bandwidth which the Dr. has to pay for with the service. Unless it is something on topic AND CURRENT, please just post a link to it.
So what our every ones thoughts for the gulf and or carb. in the next 2 weeks. lots of warm water and some really strong fronts equals????
Goofoff, what image(s) are you referring to?
Salter, did you read Bastardi's monolog below regarding GOM/Car. development?


Isaac
Yes i did, i dont have an opinion on him ,i just wanted to know what the good people on here thought. there are alot of great opinions on here that make more sence.
Posted By: salter at 12:32 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Yes i did, i dont have an opinion on him ,i just wanted to know what the good people on here thought. there are alot of great opinions on here that make more sence.


It looks like there is a window opening up for something to threaten the Gulf coast over the next two weeks as the trough that had been causing high shear across the GOM will be retreating. Also, high pressure will be entrenching itself which will block troghs/fronts from approaching. I know here in SW Louisiana, we're going back up into the 90's as we revert back to an early September pattern for a week or two.

All that being said, as we go into early October, it will be like we are going into early September, patternwise.

IMHO, it could get interesting.
SWLA, I was referring to the pictures of past systems and particularly the animated gifs which require quite a bit of bandwidth. They increase the cost and slow down the blog. I will admit that I enjoy some of them, but I don't have to pay for them either. I would like to see this remain a free service, but that may not happen if we make it too expensive for the Dr. to offer it. I think this would also apply to all the other blogs that are allowed to operate from here. Just a suggestion as it is not my blog nor my money.
Morning all,quiet day in the tropics I see, agree with goofoff but anyone who enjoys this site might want to consider becoming a memember. $10 a year is a small price to pay for info and entertainment provided, plus the lack of ads,IMHO. Hope everyone has a great Saturday-lawn and golf are in my future,lol.

JER
good morning folks,

hope all is well with you all.

anybody see the circulation south of Dom. Rep.?
good morning all,
seems like JB could be right, the models have been calling for a retreat of the trough. That 50kts shear will probably move out with it and leave the south exposed. Does seem like an indian summer pattern developing. Things could get interesting in the next 2 weeks. Just can't let our guard down until we get through most of october.

Link


Isaac nearing hurricane status.
Links to images don't eat up bandwidth from the blog itself. The only thing a link does is redirect you to the website that is feeding the image/movie. The only problem is that your own bandwidth is wasted.
The good thing about images from the NHC, is that they update automatically so you dont need to repost it.
hey what is going on with 97L?
97L? seems to have moved north. Still has a heartbeat.

97L



Issac is lookin better organized
Hurricane maybe by 11 am ?
JB going out on a Limb..as usual...big time
I love the smell of invest in da morning..
yo pat i can now post photos
Posted By: TheRingo at 8:23 AM CDT on September 30, 2006.

Links to images don't eat up bandwidth from the blog itself. The only thing a link does is redirect you to the website that is feeding the image/movie. The only problem is that your own bandwidth is wasted.


This is partially correct. Wunderground itself does not store any images (unless you uploaded them to your photos). However... the sites that have the images will have to pay for the bandwidth used... some sites have recently prohibited the uploading of images, like this site. Notice what it says (click on the "Guidelines for Media Usage and Redistribution" link):

* It is prohibited for web site operators to download images from this site to use on their own site on a regular basis.
* It is prohibited for web sites to upload images from this page (i.e. hot-linking), whether this is done server-side or client-side.
* If you are going to use an occasional image, say on a blog or in a news story, download the image to your site and serve the image from your site.

Notice the last item in particular...
Hey umm STL
can we play a guessing game intill the 11 o clock adviosry
i c teddy go on wit ya bad self
Hey pat wanna play a guessing game for hurricanes
Micheal..the need to post an image in the blog..is not the way to go.Its better for to save the bandwidth..and use a LINK..than to splash the pages with color ..chews up the bandwidth..big time..a slows the comments in the queqe
Heres aLink tutorial on the models


Name this hurricane
Cat-5 Camille in 1969 in GOM..notice the compact size & small diameter eye..Link
good morning all

wouldn't you just know it-- Sat morning, lots of time to chat on the blog and not even a blob to watch !

The ATL sure looks like the Cape Verde season is done with and the rest of the basin looks pretty tranquil save for Isaac

Now its a waiting game to see if Oct has any surprises in store or just a quiet winding down of '06
we now have Hurricane ISAAC but the 11am is not out yet

Link

her you all go
The forecast/advisory is already out (usually the first thing to come out):

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 58.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
Just in from the NHC...ISAAC BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON...
HURRICANE ISAAC!!

Yawn!..wake me up..when September ends...
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2006

...ISAAC BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON...

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ISAAC SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
Yawn!..Wake me up..when September ends...
Posted By: Patrap at 2:52 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.
Yawn!..wake me up..when September ends...


thats Sunday!!
Good Morning.....

The more I read this blog, the more control freaks I see.

992..barely a cane..will be xtra-tropical in 48hrs..if not sooner...
Teddy please pay attention to everyone discussing bandwidth and refrain from posting tons of past images (including a huge star wars pic). Put a link to them and I am sure people will click on it and play your trivia game.
even more important:

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.
96L went from barely organized to hurricane Isaac in a few days, well done 96L for proving me wrong!!
the stages of development to a HurricaneLink
Utah2Miami

man yo u hate me for no reason
whats up with you?
Regarding Joe B K8eKane writes:we gotta remember that the trend on here is that joe bastardi has absolutely no clue. interesting to see if everyone suddenly starts listening to him. why do i think you will???

Is this some kind of insult?
My local forecast for the weekLink
I believe that people have listen to Bastardi in the past.
Tightens down his Kevlar Helment..as the fray comes in..LOL
If you want to get a sneak peak at the advisory, you should go to the navy site. They normaly update from 2:00-3:00 AM/PM and 8:00-9:00 AM/PM, that is about 3 hours before the advisory.

There's no doubt the guy is wrong often enough and he freely admits it. I do admire the fact that he'll go out on a limb on a long range forecast.
woaa!! Typed that a hour ago, and I didnt post it,
dang Mozilla!!
Models for Isaac.

PS:

THE XTRAP IS NOT A MODEL!!

Hi guys! I'm a newbie poster and have been lerking for months. I LOVE this blog and have learned a great deal from many talented folks here. I live near the NC coast where many hurricanes find their way up the Camp Fear River so I like to be informed. Of course I got to experience Ernesto first hand. The half eye wall went right over me. Could someone inform me as to how I can read Joe Bastardi's commentary? I can't find it here. Would someone be so kind as to point me in the right direction? Thanks in advance.

NCbeachbunny
JB still has Cindy from 05 a Tropical Storm .I sent JB a note via e-mail to say Cindy was Upgraded to Cat-1 in January this year..He replied back saying I was incorrect.So I sent him this from the WU.....Link
Gotta subscribe to Accuweather Pro to read his column.
PS:

THE XTRAP IS NOT A MODEL!!


LOL!
JB accuweatherLink
save ya money..spend it here...JB a wacko alarmist..in my view....
Joe Bastardi's commentary

Go to AccuWeather.com, although I think you have to pay.

2. Patrap, go to the NHC archive, they have Cindy a hurricane.

97L..dissapating into scattered showers..Link
From the NHC:

* Cindy was redesignated as a hurricane in the post-season re-analysis

Found here.
I was in Cindy and had her a CAt 1 as the center dropped to 990 over my locale..Bastardi needs to do more careful postings..LOL...
save ya money..spend it here...JB a wacko alarmist..in my view....


Ya might have a point there. LOL!
Knew that see my 3:14gmt post..LOL,and once again ..I was in Cindys eyewall and center...
..again..wake me up..when September ends......
Cindy was a relatively short-lived tropical cyclone. A post-storm reanalysis indicates Cindy was a category 1 hurricane just offshore and while making landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana. The hurricane produced heavy rainfall across coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and caused minor wind damage in the New Orleans metropolitan area. Cindy was also the first of five named tropical cyclones that developed during an unusually active month of July. The post-storm reanalysis upgrade of Cindy to hurricane status means 15 Atlantic basin hurricanes occurred in 2005, a new record for a year.
Cindys local landfall loop..Link
Cindy also did significant damage in 3 states and ripped the roof off the Atanta Motor Speedway...
I smell popcorn!
...what's the blob under Hispanola, anything? and btw...Good Morning, All!
Cindys shows that a tropical Storm or Cat-1 needs plenty of respect...the storm was small..but had a powerful punch..as it was in an Up-cycle as far as intensity goes ..when she struck..
Surface map..this am...Link
sunday evening forecast surface mapLink
Thanks guys. I don't want to subscribe to Bastardi's service. LOL I was just curious as to what he said about the next 2 weeks since so many think he goes out on a limb. Could someone put it in a nut shell? Don't want to offend anyone. I read all the post here and find a great deal of up to date information. You guys seem to be on the ball or I wouldn't be here. Thanks again for all the great info.

NCbeachbunny


Hurricane Isaac
did someone say blob ?

lol
Here's what Joe Bastardi at Accuweather says:

TROPICS: Isaac is probably going to hit Newfoundland Monday as the eastern part of the noreaster that develops Sunday night and Monday off the northeast coast. In fact it will be interesting to watch southeastern New England get heavy rains and strong northeast winds even as Newfoundland is getting heavy rains and strong east to southeast winds., Point it that another Atlantic storm will become stronger further north relative the averages of such things...keeping with the pattern this year so far. However the next 2-3 weeks starting Monday do have cause for some concern. For the gulf next week I feel that the mid and latter part of the week has a good chance ( lets call it 50-50) for development west of 90 west and south of 25 north. The tropical wave in the western Caribbean is the real deal now, not the sucker punch that was simply a product a couple of days ago of upward motion caused by the ridge. Now the wave is under the ridge. This will moves slowly west under the mean eastern trough and probably not get caught. Following it is the low pressure near 63 west and 10 north. This should be near the Yucatan by next Wednesday. Then there is the front that will come into the gulf and stall, along with the ridge building over the southern plains and migrating east and the pattern pulse of upward motion coming east to support my theory. European 5 day rain amounts in this area of the gulf reach 10 inches by next Saturday, though it has no solid development, that is a heck of a lot of convection with a low level trough stuck in there from all the above features. So I would think that we have development here in the Wednesday-Friday period, but if that step happens, then its still a mystery as to where it goes, as it may sit there for several days. Since this is a bold call in the first place ( just the development threat) Lets try to see if I have an idea on this first before taking step two. Given the nature of the season it may be very tough to get anyone to buy into this anyway until it actually is happening, but it is the area to watch given the set up.



The second area will be late next week into the week after from the eastern and central Caribbean with a mind to try to affect the east coast the week of the 8th as the trough comes back to the east. Again we are talking a long way off for any development and then of course the pattern would have to behave just right. I think the first concern would be the possibility of the gulf development next week
NCbeachbunny - As I recall, AccuWeather was forecasting a major East Coast storm this year, specifically in the Northeast (unless you count Ernesto - LOL)... which has not happened yet and is increasingly unlikely, especially with the Cape Verde season closing down and all of the troughs coming off. They also forecast several major hurricane landfalls...
Hey guys. Is Bastardi talking about 97L which is dead anyways?
New website for AccuWeather.com, Un-AccuWeather.com. (hehehe)
Or, how about InAccuWeather? LOL!

Not only can you come to InAccuWeather to find the InAccuWeather, you can come to find many different advertisments. You may also advertise yourself by clicking here

Ok, gotta replace a printer in the Psych ER, which is why I am here at work instead of resting my foot. This will be fun trying to get a printer up to the 1st floor on crutches.
paint is hard to get off...;)
You guys seem to be on the ball or I wouldn't be here. Thanks again for all the great info.

welcome NC, these folks can help alot with understanding how weather works, some are awesome prognosticators others are superb free entertainment. gotta watch out for the catfights tho.. ;-)

course sometimes they are sidesplitting!
Hi Folks-Just in from lawn work, anything up with this spinning blob south of Domican Republic?Link

Thanks
JER
Nash, Elevate foot drink big bloody mary and dont walk afterwards.lol
hey caymanguy

enjoying another round of rain, lightning and thunder ?
looked at the sat and there is just one measily little cloud sitting over us but boy here in South Sound its been a real gulley washer this morning
Thanks guys! You are the best. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. I'm glad to be aboard. Hey, can someone tell me how to get this admin. modify comment off the bottom of my post? I'm just learning how to drive this thing. LOL

PS Does anyone think Ernesto will be upgraded to hurricane statis on land fall in NC? I sure believe he was here from all of them I have experienced.

tia

NCbeachbunny

NCbeachbunny - The "Administration: | Modify Comment" below all of your posts allows you to modify any of your comments after you post them so you can fix mistakes.
Area South of Dom. Republic is an ULL and will not develop. What is Bastardi talking about? Who knows? Ratings must be low:)
sebastianjer

The convection S of Dom Rep classifies as a "mini blob " lol

the WV loop shows shear to its immediate W from a ULL over Hispaniola. I doubt that much will come of it for now but there is a high over the W Caribbean if it survives long enough to get there
Link
One in Six Americans Could be Directly Impacted by 2006 Hurricane Season
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Forecasts Potential Ripple Effect for All Americans
Thanks 03
JER
hey Kman,

we have cool breezes, interesting clouds, and some thunder now and then, just enough rain to make it sloppy, wasnt too much tho, still gotta go ot there and do some work, saw some wild lightning the last few nights.

bet your veiw was better
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center forecasts six landfalling storms-five hurricanes and a tropical storm-this year, with three of the hurricanes being major upon landfall.

LOL...

Let's see... 3 landfalling storms, 0 landfalling hurricanes and 0 landfalling major hurricanes (there haven't even been 3 major hurricanes yet)...
The Great Coastal Hurricane

Gave 90% of the East Coast hurricane force winds.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.
paint is hard to get off...;)


...try some paint thinner, or gasoline...takes it off ez, but watch out for the BBQ.
yeah it was wild on Thursday night

My daughter is supposed to have a birthday party at public beach today. What do you think of the chances of that happening ??
LOL I beat accuweather since I forecast only 2 majors making USA landfalls ;-)
The Great Coastal Hurricane

When was that?
Ok, done with that nonsense. Going back home to make that bloody mary:-)
The current view..Link
"welcome NC, these folks can help alot with understanding how weather works, some are awesome prognosticators others are superb free entertainment. gotta watch out for the catfights tho.. ;-)

course sometimes they are sidesplitting!"

caymanguy...Thanks for the welcome! By the way, I love the caymans. Been there diving several times. I fact on my first trip I fell in love with my man there. Been married 24 years now. We went with group from Charlotte. It's a wonderful place!

And you are right about this blog being entertaining. I get many chuckles here everyday! LOL I spend too much time here learning and laughing. Great place!

NCbeachbunny

but watch out for the BBQ

LOL

thanks
The books say 1905. The track should be showing, but I guess the image failed to load or something.

Pretty interesting how you can so clearly make out the dominant high that drove this thing.
That's strange. I few moments ago when I clicked on "blogs", Jeff Masters blog showed up like this jeffmasters. I didn't think it was usually all lower case. I clicked back again and it showed up like this: JeffMasters ("J" and "M" in upper case)

Anybody have any idea why?
beachbunny

another welcome from the Caymans
Don't forget to return !
The HUGE anticyclone over Hurricane Mitch ..in 98Link
click to enlarge that pic...
SWLA, I have seen that happen many times, and not just with Dr. Masters' name; in fact, I first saw it happening with Alec's name. Also, it would sometimes stay lower-case for much longer.
when that image loads, you'll see Mike.
Michael, I thought there was another "poser" until I saw that it was still the same content Dr Masters had been having.
GOM in da water vapor...Link
Kman,

hmmmm... well, the wv shows the water moving east pretty quick buts so is the incoming...
gotta say...well, no idea

hope that helps lmao

sorry couldnt help myself, i was hoping you could tell me what to expect lol
after the fast upper winds relax..watch the action in the Western Carribean...its getting juicy down there for sure....
Here..Link
Wikipedia cannot be wrong...

By the way, the National Climatic Data Center actually uses Wikipedia for some of their information; compare the stuff here to what you see here (mainly the images)!
Pat, that's what I was thinking earlier. There ain't no Saharan air and dust down there right now.
Local mets forecast in NOLA..mentioning increase in easterly winds..late next week...Link
..interesting note....
Pat, noticed that too. Anything that forms in the W Car or BOC won't go NE or E...it will go N or NW. (In theory!)
expect more of the same !! LOL
when you are as small as we are it only takes one cloud to spoil the day.
It looks like the tail end of the front is draped down our way but hopefully the usual pattern of morning showers and late afternoon sun holds true for today
Patrap,

any idea how long those fast winds may last?
..nope..no SAL..but stalled frontal boundary and a easterly wave...bad combination for this Time of year......
the later runs of the super globals or the others may trend basck to this ..will see if they do come tommorrow...
Besides, the image is a broken link... I tried copying the URL and tried to view it in a seperate window... says "Cannot find server". In any case, it has to be fake... the URL is of an image hosting site... which means that you uploaded it... put this together with the fact that such a storm is not listed = made-up.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Wikipedia cannot be wrong...

By the way, the National Climatic Data Center actually uses Wikipedia for some of their information; compare the stuff here to what you see here (mainly the images)!


Little by little that image is starting to show, Mike. Observe it.
kmanislander

Thanks for the welcome and I'd love to return. I would really love to live there. Have a Red Stripe beer and a meat pie for me. LOL

NCbeachbunny
..well..something has to produce the fetch..could be combo between High to the north..and some entity in GOM...like I said..the models may start picking up on the Yucatan scnerio again.maybe.,.kindas,..could be..LOL
beachbunny

they even have " Red Stripe Light " now.
goes down like silk
I will have one for you this afternoon at the beach lol
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Besides, the image is a broken link... I tried copying the URL and tried to view it in a seperate window... says "Cannot find server". In any case, it has to be fake... the URL is of an image hosting site... which means that you uploaded it... put this together with the fact that such a storm is not listed = made-up.


Oh it certainly was made up. But still observe the track, and how REAL it is. Wow, I am an a-hole sometimes! The track was well plotted of me I must say.
I had a red stripe just yesterday!
I see it now... it screams FAKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Observe the lack of storm information in the upper-right corner (and other stuff) and the blurriness (which happens when you save a gif image). Also, go here... no storm!
WOW Ron!!

Are you trying to destroy Miami with a cat.5?
And you didn't guess it was fake because you went to be the big FBI agent and investigate it.

Oh no...

You just know I have a knack for "playing" around like that from past events. Isn't that right, Mike?
dhcoop
where are you ?
JA ?
NEW BLOG
kman...you make it sound tooooooo good.

Really cold Reds are good. Been several places in the Carib, but not Cayman...needs to be the next trip...gonna start looking and planning...interest is peaked.

NC bunny, wanna go? lol
MichaelSTL, you ruin all the fun. I enjoyed playing around with all the models too sometimes.

From this point on you are my enemy! Just kidding, but you did ruin it.
moonlightcowboy

if you like miles of unbroken powder white sand and water so clear it looks like a fish bowl then this is the place to be !

try pirates week in Nov. Lots of action for a week straight and every town has a different set of events each day including TONS of great local food and, of course, lots of cold beer
NEW BLOG
Posted By: kmanislander at 4:45 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

moonlightcowboy

try pirates week in Nov. Lots of action for a week straight and every town has a different set of events each day including TONS of great local food and, of course, lots of cold beer

....and rum, cant forget da rum.....
kmanislander

"beachbunny

they even have " Red Stripe Light " now.
goes down like silk
I will have one for you this afternoon at the beach lol"

Wish I was there watching the sunset! Sure did love diving on Edny Rock (lots of creatures)

Moonlightcowboy...I'd love to go! LOL

NC bunny
Hey!!!!! Carib Beer from Trinidad is a better beer than Red Stripe everyday. And its not lite,at all.........
Oh, Hi ther everyone, some new names featuring. Yea, this is indeed a good place for a chukkle, and a great place for info.