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Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will get heavy rains from 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:53 PM GMT on October 12, 2008

A large region of low pressure (98L) has developed over the eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. Wind shear is a high 20-25 knots over the disturbance, but waters are warm, about 29° C. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed surface circulation. Top winds seen by QuikSCAT were about 30 mph. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is moderate and increasing. At 3 pm EDT, visible satellite loops showed signs that a low level surface circulation may be starting to form near 15N 67.5W, about 200 miles south of the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 98L.

The forecast for 98L
Wind shear is expected to fall to the moderate 15-20 knot range the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow 98L to slowly organize and approach tropical depression status 1-2 days from now. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models all indicate the 98L will come close to developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, when it is expected to be near or over Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. The HWRF forecasts that 98L will organize into a tropical storm that will hit Puerto Rico Tuesday morning. Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Virgin Islands are likely to receive heavy rains of 4-8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, during the period Monday through Thursday.

An upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and park itself to the north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low should draw 98L to the north across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by Wednesday. NHC is giving 97L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

97L
An area of disturbed weather (97L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-organized closed circulation. However, wind shear of 30 knots is allowing just a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity to cling to the east side of the storm. This morning's QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 40-45 mph in these heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical cyclone under high wind shear--a low level circulation center exposed to view, with a clump of heavy thunderstorms on the side away from where strong upper-level winds are blowing.


Figure 2. Current satellite image of 97L.

The forecast for 97L
There is a chance shear may relax a little this afternoon, which may allow enough heavy thunderstorm activity to build and convince NHC to call this system Tropical Storm Nana. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high 35-40 knot range Monday and Tuesday, which should prevent any further development. NHC is giving 97L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models continue to forecast the possible development of a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5-7 days from now.


Figure 3. Hurricane Norbert over the Gulf of California at 23:45 GMT Saturday October 11, 2008. At the time, Norbert was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Tropical Storm Odile is visible at lower right. Image credit: NASA Goddard.

Norbert
Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the west coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula Saturday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Norbert crossed Baja and the Gulf of California, making a second landfall on mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Norbert made landfall along a sparsely populated stretch of the coast about 145 miles northwest of the resort town of Cabo San Lucas. The storm tore off roofs and flooded homes knee-deep in the town of Puerto San Carlos, near where the eye came ashore. The remains of Norbert are expected to slosh into the Midwestern U.S. on Monday and combine with an area of low pressure over Kansas. The resulting storm could trigger rains in excess of seven inches, according to the latest forecast from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 4).


Figure 4. Forecast rain amounts for the five-day period ending Friday, October 17, 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Saturday's update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
I got this very nice email yesterday, giving appreciation for all those who helped out through the portlight.org Hurricane Ike charity effort:


I just wanted to express my sincere gratitude, on behalf of the City of Houston, the Mayor, and our community partners over at TIRR/Memorial Hermann, for all of your involvement in bringing medical supplies and equipment together to help Texans with disabilities affected by Hurricane Ike. I can't tell you how much we all appreciate the fact that you so quickly mobilized and leveraged such a tremendous amount of support to bring these needed items to Houston and other Texas cities.

An email simply doesn't do justice to the generous spirit and initiative that you, Paul Timmons, and your partners took to make this happen, nor to our gratitude. However, I just want you to know that we think about you all in appreciation every single day over here, and there are many who are directly benefiting from your generosity.

By the way, Paul Timmons mentioned that it looks like another shipment of 30-50 wheelchairs can be sent over here. All I can say is wow! Thank you for not forgetting about us, and for realizing that we still have a lot of needs here that we are trying to meet - even 4 weeks after the hurricane.

Again, please accept my sincere thanks. I hope that you have a wonderful weekend!

Michelle Colvard, MPH
Executive Director
Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting system145:
you see everythign hitting florida even jerry from 2007 and laura this year lol


Dont quote him...Thanks.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Watch and see. da wilma the 2nd!

Huh....

Sorry but another system like wilma is highly unlikely anywere in the basin for a long long time.Not going into specfic details but those type of tropical cyclones dont come around very often.
Quoting eddye:
tazmanian you dont know where this thing is going so dont be the smart one because i still see this hiting fl


its not going for FL and i am %150 right on this
Quoting hurricane23:
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Watch and see. da wilma the 2nd!

Huh....

Sorry but another system like wilma is highly unlikely anywere in the basin for a long long time.Not going into specfic details but those type of tropical cyclones dont come around very often.


Starting to think that might not be true, we had one last year, a 905 MB Hurricane hit the Yucatan, and a 923 MB Hurricane a few weeks after that.
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Why? What's up?? Seriously, what is it???


key west,
is it raining in hialeah?
ok whats start some kind of poll and see oh gets it right
Quoting kingzfan104:


didnt you get banned for being jfv?
reincarnated,
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting eddye:
tazmanian you dont know where this thing is going so dont be the smart one because i still see this hiting fl


its not going for FL and i am %150 right on this


dont be so sure JFV betted his life in fay not getting in the gulf. lol
when i quoted naplesdreamer23, i meant by when the storm that models were forming in the sw caribbean, i meant that storm had more of a chance to hit south florida the way wilma did. wanted to clear things up.
Quoting hurricane23:
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Watch and see. da wilma the 2nd!

Huh....

Sorry but another system like wilma is highly unlikely anywere in the basin for a long long time.Not going into specfic details but those type of tropical cyclones dont come around very often.


Yup!
ok all take your pick


A 98L makes lane fall in FL

B 98L gos in too MX

C 98L makes land fall in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then go out too sea
???
513. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok all take your pick


A 98L makes lane fall in FL

B 98L gos in too MX

C 98L makes land fall in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then go out too sea

A :p
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok all take your pick


A 98L makes lane fall in FL

B 98L gos in too MX

C 98L makes land fall in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then go out too sea


I pick ''C''
Quoting KeyWestMan:
???


LOL...Dont worry about it.
for the ones that pick A i feel so sorry for you
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok all take your pick


A 98L makes lane fall in FL

B 98L gos in too MX

C 98L makes land fall in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then go out too sea


with the way i'm seeing things, "A" as a category 2 or 3 storm.
Quoting stormdude77:


I pick ''C''


C
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok all take your pick


A 98L makes lane fall in FL

B 98L gos in too MX

C 98L makes land fall in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then go out too sea


none of the above. It will sneak between PR and Hispanola and then out to sea.
523. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:
for the ones that pick A i feel so sorry for you

man is too easy of course is the C
524. Vero1
C!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i will pick C
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok all take your pick


A 98L makes lane fall in FL

B 98L gos in too MX

C 98L makes land fall in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then go out too sea


C is the reasonable answer
ok - i like the rain, really i do...but could someone get the waterworks turned off here? My GOD...we're in zip 31324 and it's been raining nonstop for two days...and hurricane nana came for dinner and can't go home - staying until it stops...

POURING.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
A!


Well I know you hope its A because your a Florida wishcaster...but its obvious that it will be C
529. Vero1
Anyone Know what they are talking about in the comment below??

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

SPECIAL THANKS GO TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA FOR COORDINATION ON SCREAMING EAGLE
FEATURE
.

$$
COHEN

Going with C at the moment, although things can change.
Lets wait till something forms before coming to any conclusions lol.As of now there nothing iminent in the vicinity of the western caribbean.Most models have 98 impacting puerto rico/Dominican Republic then shooting off to the NE.

Have a great night/week. Adrian
532. JRRP
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
A!

you are joking
23 how about you whats your pick???
Evening folks

I pick door "C"
however....it may curve back to florida. crossing back over florida, across the gulf and hit mexico

Or not
Quoting extreme236:


Well I know you hope its A because your a Florida wishcaster...but its obvious that it will be C

LOL...Some people. Hopefully 98L wont cause that much damage in PR/Hispaniola.
Quoting hurricane23:
Lets wait till something forms before coming to any conclusions lol.As of now there nothing iminent in the vicinity of the western caribbean.Most models have 98 impacting puerto rico/Dominican Republic then shooting off to the NE.

Have a great night/week. Adrian


impacting.......i agree. It will split the two though. will not make landfall
We've watched two seasons of Dexter, Martian Child, and now onto our Sunday favorites...thinking about hunkering down with more movies tomorrow morning...This is NUTS. We have flooding all over right now - not bad enough that it's on the lawn but I think we're cool with tides right now - not sure. Throw in a tstorm already and make it fun.
mel,
where are you? PR?
no - savannah GA GoodOle...pouring and pouring here. All that stuff off our coast has been hitting us all day long...and yesterday...and the day before...on and off on Friday but last two days have been a real pain...thinking of busting out the lifejackets (j/k)

Flooding already started here in PR in the vecinity of Fajardo river.
ok here we go i made my own poll


Poll: take your pick
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok here we go i made my own poll


Poll: take your pick

That was pretty nifty, Taz
Quoting melwerle:
no - savannah GA GoodOle...pouring and pouring here. All that stuff off our coast has been hitting us all day long...and yesterday...and the day before...on and off on Friday but last two days have been a real pain...thinking of busting out the lifejackets (j/k)



hang in there. thanks
Quoting KEHCharleston:

That was pretty nifty, Taz


lol i just vote!
LOL TS Nana formed in the eastern Pacific?!
Quoting Vero1:
Anyone Know what they are talking about in the comment below??

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

SPECIAL THANKS GO TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA FOR COORDINATION ON SCREAMING EAGLE
FEATURE
.

$$
COHEN





FAST WESTWARD-MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE KNOWN AS A SCREAMING EAGLE.
RE:539. melwerle

Hi mel, same here in Charleston, though we should clear up tonight.
Just steady rain, no flooding to speak of. Breezy, small craft advisory.

Nothing like those folks in PR will be getting.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 759 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES IN PUERTO RICO CEIBA FAJARDO * UNTIL 930 PM AST * AT 749 PM AST...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED BY THE RIVER GAGE ON THE FAJARDO RIVER. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AREAS ALONG THE FAJARDO RIVER IN FAJARDO AND CEIBA MUNICIPALITIES. A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN HAS RAISED THE FAJARDO RIVER ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 8 FEET. IT WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BEFORE 9 PM AST.
Quoting Vero1:
Anyone Know what they are talking about in the comment below??

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

SPECIAL THANKS GO TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA FOR COORDINATION ON SCREAMING EAGLE
FEATURE
.

$$
COHEN
br
>

Probably DHS whacker stuff.
Need to know basis only.
hey look 5 votes for fl!
For those who like history, who remembers a storm with the projected track of 98L.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
hey look 5 votes for fl!


Probably all from you.
Where you are?? De que pueblo eres??
This is a screaming eagle (from Wikipedia):

A screaming eagle is a tropical wave with a strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.

It is a tropical wave with active thunderstorm activity at its apex, which is sheared by either westerly winds aloft, or by strong easterly winds at the surface. The term was first seen in an Air Force Satellite Interpretation handbook written by Hank Brandley in 1974. It was coined with this phrase due to its strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:539. melwerle

Hi mel, same here in Charleston, though we should clear up tonight.
Just steady rain, no flooding to speak of. Breezy, small craft advisory.

Nothing like those folks in PR will be getting.


Hope so - all this nonsense has been floating right off our coast for a couple of days - Mom (Nana) came over for dinner last night and hasn't left since...all good but ready for all to go home (fish like company stink after three days!). Ready for a little sunshine...

Good luck to all in more serious conditions...
542. KEHCharleston 5:41 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok here we go i made my own poll


Poll: take your pick


That was pretty nifty, Taz



thanks
A few thunderstorms has developed in association with former TC14 (Marie) located about 1150 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. No significant redevelopment of this system is expected.

---
558. JRRP
Quoting antonio28:
For those who like history, who remembers a storm with the projected track of 98L.

may be Alpha 2005
i got 16 votes thats says 98L will go out too sea when its done with its little trip from Hispaniola
Quoting Vero1:
Anyone Know what they are talking about in the comment below??
... SCREAMING EAGLE FEATURE.


See:
Link
and:
Link

...interesting

CRS
Quoting JRRP:

may be Alpha 2005


Don't remember that one.
563. Vero1
Quoting extreme236:
This is a screaming eagle (from Wikipedia):

A screaming eagle is a tropical wave with a strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.

It is a tropical wave with active thunderstorm activity at its apex, which is sheared by either westerly winds aloft, or by strong easterly winds at the surface. The term was first seen in an Air Force Satellite Interpretation handbook written by Hank Brandley in 1974. It was coined with this phrase due to its strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.


Thanks
Quoting SevereHurricane:


dont be so sure JFV betted his life in fay not getting in the gulf. lol
He's like a cat - 9lives (just a new name each time)
Quoting KeyWestMan:


My man, 98L is NOT even coming absolutely anywhere close to Florida, much less actually make landfall here. Now, you MIGHT be in luck later on this week headed into next weekend, when we MIGHT get 99L forming in the Western Carib as several of our most trusted Global Models and Dr. Masters are hinting at. And yes, if something were to brew down there, then Florida should absolutely keep an eye on it, but until something actually forms down there, do not pre-predict ok FLNaples?
Quoting KeyWestMan:


My man, 98L is NOT even coming absolutely anywhere close to Florida, much less actually make landfall here. Now, you MIGHT be in luck later on this week headed into next weekend, when we MIGHT get 99L forming in the Western Carib as several of our most trusted Global Models are hinting at. And yes, if something were to brew down there, then Florida should absolutely keep an eye on it, but until something actually forms down there, do not pre-predict ok FLNaples?

\

He can pre-predict all he wants on here.

And which "trusted" models are you referring to for development?
567. JRRP
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
hey look 5 votes for fl!

do you continue thinking that 98L go to fl ?.
LOL -- TAZ - I laughed the whole way through that... that was fun... (I did try to leave my initials...but it knew it was me)
570. JRRP
Quoting antonio28:


Don't remember that one.

Quoting vortfix:

\

He can pre-predict all he wants on here.

And which "trusted" models are you referring to for development?


And there goes another Florida wishcaster!
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Excuse me? Please do not disrespect me, because I clearly haven't disrespected you YET!
Sounds fair SurfMom?
puuurrrfect
Quoting JRRP:



TS Alpha, right JRRP?
Quoting Tazmanian:
i got 16 votes thats says 98L will go out too sea when its done with its little trip from Hispaniola

I think it'll turn west
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Excuse me? Please do not disrespect me, because I clearly haven't disrespected you YET!
Sounds fair SurfMom?


Doesn't this pretty much confirm KeyWestMan is JFV?
Too funny Boy!

Anyone knows I am the farthest thing from a wishcaster.
Oh JFV...don't even think about smacking down with Surfmom...

oh sorry - Keywestman...
12/2345 UTC 15.3N 68.2W T1.5/1.5 98L
Just name the "trusted" models Keywestboy.
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Excuse me? Please do not disrespect me, because I clearly haven't disrespected you YET!
Sounds fair SurfMom?


POOF.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think it'll turn west
Nope
Im really fed up with this garbage.
keywestman you a crusin watch the hairpin turn up ahead
Well folks, I will leave it all to y'all to sort out.

Have a good evening
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Im really fed up with this garbage.


What garbage? This is a far cry from last year, where the blog was hell itself. Besides, that's what the ignore feature is for. I use it all the time. :)
West it shall go!
Quoting KoritheMan:


What garbage? This is a far cry from last year, where the blog was hell itself. Besides, that's what the ignore feature is for. I use it all the time. :)


Yea, this year's been pretty calm as far as arguing and what not goes, if this was last year, with Ike and Gustav, this blog would go up in smoke like at a BBQ gone wrong. A New Orleans hit and a Galveston hit by Hurricanes that at peak intensitys were upper end Category 4s.
Quoting KoritheMan:


What garbage? This is a far cry from last year, where the blog was hell itself. Besides, that's what the ignore feature is for. I use it all the time. :)


Well Im just really fed up with this JFV/KWM guy. But your right this is better than last year..:)
keywestman your about to be replaced with empty space
Quoting NOWCAST:



FAST WESTWARD-MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE KNOWN AS A SCREAMING EAGLE.


ty
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
keywestman your about to be replaced with empty space


Amen...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, this year's been pretty calm as far as arguing and what not goes, if this was last year, with Ike and Gustav, this blog would go up in smoke like at a BBQ gone wrong. A New Orleans hit and a Galveston hit by Hurricanes that at peak intensitys were upper end Category 4s.


Sadly, I got pretty pissed at a lot of people on here last year, but I've learned how to behave after being here for a bit. That's all it takes for you to behave correctly, really, is to hang around here for a few months during hurricane season.
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Ditto, my friend, favortism is more then expired in this blog. You never take a look at both angles of the argument here, do you? Enough said, moving on.


Im not your friend...Please stop calling me that.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well Im just really fed up with this JFV/KWM guy. But your right this is better than last year..:)


Well, hopefully he'll be banned soon. Does WU do IP bans? If not, then I don't see the reason for a ban, when you can just make another handle...
Quoting extreme236:
This is a screaming eagle (from Wikipedia):

A screaming eagle is a tropical wave with a strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.

It is a tropical wave with active thunderstorm activity at its apex, which is sheared by either westerly winds aloft, or by strong easterly winds at the surface. The term was first seen in an Air Force Satellite Interpretation handbook written by Hank Brandley in 1974. It was coined with this phrase due to its strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.


ty, too. Good stuff. Much appreciated.
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Get ready to be banned as well, your ridecule in here is unbelivable. You simply cannot stay in the topic of tropical meteorology ONLY, can you? Admin, here I come.


*facepalm*

POOF, JFV. POOF! XD
I'm going to get banned for defending myself? Come on bro, do you seriously think I am deservant of that? Now, if I would have down-right insulted someone that would be an entirely different story there, wouldn't you agree? Are you catching my drift there. Unless of course, you have an unjuste personal grudge against me, which changes things darstically. Thanks for given me the chance to say my two cents concerning this ever-escalating dispute.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, hopefully he'll be banned soon. Does WU do IP bans? If not, then I don't see the reason for a ban, when you can just make another handle...


I dont think so....
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Excuse me? Please do not disrespect me, because I clearly haven't disrespected you YET!
Sounds fair SurfMom?
addendum
Further Thought - I find it very disrespectful to be lied to - so ahhh ...I'll leave it at that. Just because I'm nice doesn't mean I'm stupid.

I'm glad to see the vote is that Hurricane Nana will go out to sea -- just hard to trust any cane this year -- the storms seemed to delight in screwing w/our minds & at points sanity
now now evere one dont for get too ues the Ignore


you could all get a 24hr ban and oh wants that



so i would say whats drop the oh thing and move on ok
All right, a little behind, thanks all for eagle stuff... especially the initiator. :)
Quoting Tazmanian:
now now evere one dont for get too ues the Ignore


you could all get a 24hr ban and oh wants that



so i would say whats drop the oh thing and move on ok


Taz has a point and on that note im out for the night.
Deep Breath - Ok I'm collected now - Screaming Eagle -- I like that... never heard that before
Quoting surfmom:
Deep Breath - Ok I'm collected now - Screaming Eagle -- I like that... never heard that before


Sad to say, I too did not know of the Screaming Eagle, which is surprising, considering I'm pretty fluent in tropical meteorology. Oh well, you learn something new everyday. :)
Tazmanian, your one of the best bloggers on here.
617. JRRP
618. Enola
Just popped on for a sec, and it looks like a few people need chill pills. Later!
Screaming Eagle - reminds me of my mother - much prefer the weather image
Quoting surfmom:
Screaming Eagle - reminds me of my mother - much prefer the weather image


Lol....
Well,*poof* I'm gone until next year.
Maybe some of y'all have grown up by then.
It was really a chore to read through the all of the bull this season.
Frankly, I've seen it get worse every year since 2005.
See ya' next year!
Trey-
Quoting KeyWestMan:
Tazmanian, your one of the best bloggers on here.


now going into typical jfv style like he did last week and he is starting to make nice with everyone
I just looked at the AVN IR and Shortwave IR loops, and the circulation of Nana is even more exposed than it was earlier in the day, and westerly shear looks to be increasing over Nana.
If that ULL which will form can such up both Nana and future Omar, then Europe will get a nasty storm. More than 30 inches of snow is falling in some parts of Montana from that system which Norbert will merge into! I'm thinking 15 - 19 TS's by the end of the year. Did you know that methane clathrates are melting in the Arctic? Follow reference links This may play a role in future hurricane seasons. Models are divided on which way 98L will go, but I'm thinking "C". BTW Taz, you forgot unnamed STS 2 (2006). After potential Omar, more system(s) could develop. (BTW, nordostersjokustartilleriflygspanningssimulatoranlaggningsmaterielunderhallsuppfoljningssystemdiskus sionssinlaggsforberedelsearbeten is a word but with accents source GWR 2006 A&E sec.)
Quoting o22sail:
Well,*poof* I'm gone until next year.
Maybe some of y'all have grown up by then.
It was really a chore to read through the all of the bull this season.
Frankly, I've seen it get worse every year since 2005.
See ya' next year!
Trey-


Obviously, you skiped 2007, because 2007 was way worse.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I just looked at the AVN IR and Shortwave IR loops, and the circulation of Nana is even more exposed than it was earlier in the day, and westerly shear looks to be increasing over Nana.


Wouldn't be surprised if advisory's were discontinued tomorrow.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Obviously, you skiped 2007, because 2007 was way worse.


This.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Obviously, you skiped 2007, because 2007 was way worse.


LOL I joined in February 2006. 2006 was a good year for a beginner.
Quoting JRRP:


Please, not another one for the Turks and Caicos. We've had enough.
Looks like trying to get to the Dominican Republic is going to be tricky.
ARRRRRRGGGGHHHHH! I have no more fingernails.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wouldn't be surprised if advisory's were discontinued tomorrow.


Yeah, me either. It's impressive enough that it was able to form as a CV hurricane in the middle of October. Looks like climatology prevails.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, me either. It's impressive enough that it was able to form as a CV hurricane in the middle of October. Looks like climatology prevails.


Indeed, Oct is primarily a Carib month.
Although I must say, my prediction of 15 storms looks low at this point. I'm expecting around 17 storms now. Season has been impressive so far.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although I must say, my prediction of 15 storms looks low at this point. I'm expecting around 17 storms now. Season has been impressive so far.


Seems about right...
98L winds are now up too 35mph
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L winds are now up too 35mph


Not surprising... Some impressive convection flaring up with 98L. I expect TD 15 or TS Omar tommorow.
635. KoritheMan 6:39 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L winds are now up too 35mph


Not surprising... Some impressive convection flaring up with 98L. I expect TD 15 or TS Omar tommorow



yup and if it makes it too a TS it will be are 15th name storm in a row
2008 is like a texas style 2004

all hit tehas this year
won't be surpise to see them get other one like omar
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L winds are now up too 35mph


He's getting strong Taz!
Quoting Tazmanian:
635. KoritheMan 6:39 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L winds are now up too 35mph


Not surprising... Some impressive convection flaring up with 98L. I expect TD 15 or TS Omar tommorow



yup and if it makes it too a TS it will be are 15th name storm in a row


If we get 98L to develop into Omar, I think that'll break the previous record of 14 depressions becoming named storms without dissipation, set in 1998. Interesting.
Hey all.
It is not raining in my part of Puerto Rico anymore.
I do see that on the satellite image there is a lot of rain to our south...
What can we expect here in Puerto Rico?
Also, odds of a TD at 11pm tonight?
Quoting goddessnoel4u:
2008 is like a texas style 2004

all hit tehas this year
won't be surpise to see them get other one like omar


I wouldn't look for a Texas hit this late in the season. Anything can happen, but it's unlikely. Still, the steering pattern has set up this year to where Louisiana and Texas has taken the brunt of the season.
come on 98L you can do it you can be come omar




if we get are 15th name storm in a row this will be are best year evere has far has nameing storms gos
639. KoritheMan 6:42 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
635. KoritheMan 6:39 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L winds are now up too 35mph


Not surprising... Some impressive convection flaring up with 98L. I expect TD 15 or TS Omar tommorow



yup and if it makes it too a TS it will be are 15th name storm in a row


If we get 98L to develop into Omar, I think that'll break the previous record of 14 depressions becoming named storms without dissipation, set in 1998. Interesting


yup i cant wait i all so find it odd that TD 10 got a name storm year that took all most 3 years for TD 10 too get a name
Quoting benirica:
Hey all.
It is not raining in my part of Puerto Rico anymore.
I do see that on the satellite image there is a lot of rain to our south...
What can we expect here in Puerto Rico?
Also, odds of a TD at 11pm tonight?


Expect heavy rains across the whole country, and some possible flash flooding and river flooding. All depends on how close it gets to the island.

Also, I don't think this will become TD15 by 11:00 PM tonight. Not enough organization, and probably not a closed LLCC. The NHC will likely wait until tommorow afternoon to upgrade, when recon gets in.
Quoting Tazmanian:
639. KoritheMan 6:42 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
635. KoritheMan 6:39 PM PDT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L winds are now up too 35mph


Not surprising... Some impressive convection flaring up with 98L. I expect TD 15 or TS Omar tommorow



yup and if it makes it too a TS it will be are 15th name storm in a row


If we get 98L to develop into Omar, I think that'll break the previous record of 14 depressions becoming named storms without dissipation, set in 1998. Interesting


yup i cant wait i all so find it odd that TD 10 got a name storm year that took all most 3 years for TD 10 too get a name


Yeah, TD10 seems to have a curse on it, just like Chris (the only Chris that even became remotely strong was the one in 1994, and even then, it was only a minimal hurricane that didn't affect land). Always struggles to strengthen.

I remember last year, TD10 was a very weak and disorganized system that quickly made landfall and dissipated. What a shame. lol
After IKE - i didn't want to even look at another possible seedling... but Taz you got me hooked on this name thing... so yea OK Omar... see if you can get up and spinning......briefly --just enough to make it on the records.....then go away
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, TD10 seems to have a curse on it, just like Chris (the only Chris that even became remotely strong was the one in 1994, and even then, it was only a minimal hurricane that didn't affect land). Always struggles to strengthen.

I remember last year, TD10 was a very weak and disorganized system that quickly made landfall and dissipated. What a shame. lol


yop what a shame on STS TD 10 then TD 10 of last year
648. JLPR
98L is dealing with shear right?
Convection seems to be building far away from the the supposed low at 66W the low is at 68W

is the center relocating or is it the shear?
I give 98L a 80-90% chance of 98L to become a depression by 11pm tommorow.
Quoting JLPR:
98L is dealing with shear right?
Convection seems to be building far away from the the supposed low at 66W the low is at 68W

is the center relocating or is it the shear?


It's southwesterly shear (read the latest TWO; CIMSS wind shear map is currently unavailable).
651. Vero1
Quoting JLPR:
98L is dealing with shear right?
Convection seems to be building far away from the the supposed low at 66W the low is at 68W

is the center relocating or is it the shear?
A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED NEAR
15N68W...OR ABOUT 175 NM SSW OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
63W-68W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TOMORROW.
652. JLPR
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's southwesterly shear (read the latest TWO; CIMSS wind shear map is currently unavailable).


yep Cimms is unavailable =(

thank you =D How could I miss that lol =P then 98L isnt looking too good with the majority of the convection to the east of the circulation I dont expect a TD at 11 nor at 5am well depending on the D-max
653. JRRP
Quoting SVFalcon:

Please, not another one for the Turks and Caicos. We've had enough.
Looks like trying to get to the Dominican Republic is going to be tricky.
ARRRRRRGGGGHHHHH! I have no more fingernails.
Nice to see you on the board, SVF. I'm hoping this one goes out to sea, or at least doesn't make it past depression stage if it makes it northwest of Hispaniola.

Dunno if we'll be that lucky, though :o(
Quoting JLPR:


yep Cimms is unavailable =(

thank you =D How could I miss that lol =P then 98L isnt looking too good with the majority of the convection to the east of the circulation I dont expect a TD at 11 nor at 5am well depending on the D-max


Said shear is forecast to diminish, though. And if it transitions from southwesterly to something like southerly or easterly, it would give it a better shot of development.
i no some of you dont like uesing this wind shear map but for now its the olny wind shear map there is that updates


Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no some of you dont like uesing this wind shear map but for now its the olny wind shear map there is that updates


Link


Thanks, Taz. I was wondering where this was.
Quoting JRRP:
l
Quoting JRRP:
Looks like the center might be more west than previously thought...
Evening all.
Just to confirm, that there is great weather here, and has been so, all day long. Cool breezes, clear skies, big moon above. Nice weather thanks to 97 and 98 pulling everything away.

Some weather in the Equatorial Atl along the ITCZ, and plenty more still over central Africa. Maybe a late end to the season ?
Rainy season here ends, officially, in December, but we had rain this year until the first week in March. Interesting to see how this year pans out.
660. JRRP
Quoting billy305:
lLooks like the center might be more west than previously thought...

may be
The center is where I have been posting it to be for several hrs. Near 15.2N 68.3W

Look at the shortwave loop and the buoy reading from 42059
Quoting kmanislander:
The center is where I have been posting it to be for several hrs. Near 15.2N 68.3W

Look at the shortwave loop and the buoy reading from 42059
look at the Quikscat
Hey Kman!
Quoting billy305:
look at the Quikscat


And ??

QS caught the right edge of the circulation on the 15N line and near 68W
Quoting KeyWestMan:
Hey Kman!


Whats cookin ??
Quoting kmanislander:


And ??

QS caught the right edge of the circulation on the 15N line and near 68W
Don't you hate it when the Quikscat goes blank right where need it......
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Storm ... Nana
Present Satellite picture ... Nana

Invest ... 98L
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS... WHICH HAVE BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN SOME AREAS THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 98L

Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
Quoting billy305:
Don't you hate it when the Quikscat goes blank right where need it......


It's a conspiracy to drive bloggers crazy LOL
Quoting kmanislander:


It's a conspiracy to drive bloggers crazy LOL
LOL
Based on the Laws of Averages, it seems to me that Quickscat is remarkable, in that it seems to miss what we want to see about 75 % of the time.
NANA showing very cold cloud tops in its convection to its east...
Quoting pottery:
Based on the Laws of Averages, it seems to me that Quickscat is remarkable, in that it seems to miss what we want to see about 75 % of the time.
LOL so true!
Hi, Orca. Do you owe me a cold beer yet ? LOL
How you doing ?
Hi Pottery,

I tend to find that QS misses at least every other pass that I am interested in. However, given that it is well past the design life of the satellite we are lucky to have it at all !
Quoting billy305:
NANA showing very cold cloud tops in its convection to its east...


But it has a fully exposed LLCC, and strong westerly shear is evident. Not going to strengthen.
Quoting kmanislander:


Whats cookin ??


Not much man, hopefully you and yours are blessed. So, you still expecting something to get cookin in the Western Carib later on this week as advertised by some of our models my man? No pun intended by the way, LOL!
Quoting KoritheMan:


But it has a fully exposed LLCC, and strong westerly shear is evident. Not going to strengthen.
Did I say its strengthening?
98L lookin' better....
True Kman.
A properly designed unit, if you ask me. When was its life expectancy due to run out ? I dont remember.
Quoting billy305:
Did I say its strengthening?


No, I didn't say you did. Calm down. lol
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Not much man, hopefully you and yours are blessed. So, you still expecting something to get cookin in the Western Carib later on this week as advertised by some of our models my man? No pun intended by the way, LOL!


Yes, I still expect something to try and spin up by Thursday of this week. Surface pressures continue to be on the low side and today was no exception with 1009 mb .

If shear slackens off to coincide with the upward pulse of the MJO we could see some action in about 5 days.
Nana must be a shallower cyclone, because when Karen was blasted with about 40kts of wind shear last year the center was about 5 degrees longitude from the convection...in fact recent sat pics show the center a bit closer to the convection than before...but dmax is probably what's aiding this.
683. JLPR


bad models lol
SHIPS model on the 00Z run suggests that if Nana could somehow survive about 25-30kts of shear for another 60 hours the shear would slacken to about 5-20kts thereafter.
Kman...Mail.
Quoting pottery:
True Kman.
A properly designed unit, if you ask me. When was its life expectancy due to run out ? I dont remember.


2 to 3 yrs from 1999 !

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0130z 13OCT)
===========================================
An area of convection (94W) located near 17.7N 108.7E or 95 NM northeast of Hue, Vietnam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating disturbance with formative banding wrapping into an improved low level circulation center. A 2133z AMSU image depicts convective banding on the northern flank wrapping into the southwest quadrant of the system. Surface observations near the center support a defined, deepening low with surface low pressure values as low as 1006 MB with 24 hour pressure falls of 3 to 4 MB. The environment is favorable for further development with weak vertical wind shear, good radial outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and deep tropical moisture. There is some cooler drier air north of Hainan Island associated with northeasterly flow which has enhanced convergence and helped spin up the low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 MB. Based on the improved consolidation and banding, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Quoting pottery:
Hi, Orca. Do you owe me a cold beer yet ? LOL
How you doing ?

I might..I know they are looking
nana sort of reminds me of melissa last year
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, I still expect something to try and spin up by Thursday of this week. Surface pressures continue to be on the low side and today was no exception with 1009 mb .

If shear slackens off to coincide with the upward pulse of the MJO we could see some action in about 5 days.


Thanks, your predictions are always head on; therefore, I'm anticipating something to brew there later on this week as well. We'll see my good friend.
Thanks Kman.
As I said, good design....
OK Orca. Good.
I'm out for tonight. Will chat tomorrow

G'nite all
*YAWN*
Nite All
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm out for tonight. Will chat tomorrow

G'nite all


Good night Kman.
TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z HAD BELIEVABLE 35 KT
VECTORS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. WITH NO
APPRECIABLE LET UP OF THE SHEAR INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW FAIRLY SOON.
Quoting pottery:
Based on the Laws of Averages, it seems to me that Quickscat is remarkable, in that it seems to miss what we want to see about 75 % of the time.

ROFL --It's amusing to watch the fustration
Quoting surfmom:

ROFL --It's amusing to watch the fustration


Usually that term is used by a man talking about a woman :)
Torrential rains in Madrid and Toledo ( Spain ). Also 2 ships driven ashore in Straits of Gibralta.
Video at BBC News.
Speak for yourself Orca. LOL
where is norbert right now or its remnants?

Japan Meteorological Agency

WWJP25 Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 13OCT)
============================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18.0N 108.0E - 25 knots 1008 hPa

reported as moving west-northwest slowly
Keywest Mail.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Usually that term is used by a man talking about a woman :)

I know Orca, thats why I enjoy it so much - there's pleasure in the reversal of roles --weatherboys
Norbert is likely fully dissipated by now.
Quoting surfmom:

I know Orca, thats why I enjoy it so much - there's pleasure in the reversal of roles --weatherboys


I see the surfmom_bouncing_buoy virus in the CMC model finally killed it.. the CMC 00Z won't even run anymore.
Not to mention..I seem to have caught it myself.. on more drugs then you can shake a stick at.. thats why I am not on much...
anyone, is this Omar the one that might be a wave maker in the gomex? You all seem to have Hurricane Nana dead and buried like an old woman
Quoting Orcasystems:


I see the surfmom_bouncing_buoy virus in the CMC model finally killed it.. the CMC 00Z won't even run anymore.
Not to mention..I seem to have caught it myself.. on more drugs then you can shake a stick at.. thats why I am not on much...
....ohh sorry to hear -- maybe you need some hot warm sun. If I lived in your neck of the woods, I'd be Rusty!
surfmom--more traces of red tide today at MY beach(LOL)....no bait fish or any fish for that matter in the last 48 hrs,what a bummer!!!!...now what about this late week west carib low????
Quoting surfmom:
So any is this Omar the one that might be a wave maker in the gomex? You all seem to have Hurricane Nana dead and buried like an old woman


I think your wave maker is going to be 99L, starting in the western Caribbean in a couple days
Still looks like 98L is moving west to me. Still lookin pretty healthy but I wonder why no new track models at 8:00 pm
I have a blog update about the possibilty of a 99L forming in the next 48-72hrs off the east side of the yucatan,all are welcome!!!!
I'm shutting down -interesting to see if Taz gets to see Omar come to be. ~Orca take care~
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nice to see you on the board, SVF. I'm hoping this one goes out to sea, or at least doesn't make it past depression stage if it makes it northwest of Hispaniola.

Dunno if we'll be that lucky, though :o(

Thanks. I'm new to this site. Weather rules our lives. Wind was about 15-20kt out of NE today here and lots of thunderstorms around.
The locals here say if it comes up the Mona passage it will come here. Am learning alot reading everyone's posts.
Post712 - thanks Orca --just want the reassurance...Gulf is up to 82 degrees - it would be nice to squeak one more session b/4 the wetsuits have to come out. Although, I might be on the other coast --which would be terribly ironic..can't change my dates cause of Polo
Whatis a screaming eagle?
719. Vero1
Quoting stillwaiting:
I have a blog update about the possibilty of a 99L forming in the next 48-72hrs off the east side of the yucatan,all are welcome!!!!

48 Hrs


72 Hrs
I am off also.. drugs are kicking in..again.. back to bed.

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Storm ... Nana
Present Satellite picture ... Nana
Invest ... 98L
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 98L
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
Latest Caribbean surface map has 98L moving west.
please make it stop raining here...i think Nana's car is going to float away and she' never going to go home...

Where is the bermuda high at this point? Probably a dumb question but is there a map for that or what?

Take care, Orca. Hope you feel better real soon......
724. Vero1
Quoting congaline:
Whatis a screaming eagle?

A FAST WESTWARD-MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE
KNOWN AS A SCREAMING EAGLE.
TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
WTNT02
03:00 AM UTC OCTOBER 13 2008


The area of low pressure (98L) currently encountering 20-30 knots of southwesterly wind shear. The area of low pressure will slowly track northwest towards an area of less than 10 knots of southwesterly wind shear by tomorrow afternoon. Expect upper level environment to become more conductive for tropical cyclone formation. Sea surface temperatures of 82F to 85F further enhances tropical cyclone development over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Mel, patience, patience, this too shall pass LOL


Dominican Republican and Haiti residence should watch carefullu
728. Vero1
554. extreme236 12:49 AM GMT on October 13, 2008
This is a screaming eagle (from Wikipedia):

A screaming eagle is a tropical wave with a strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.

It is a tropical wave with active thunderstorm activity at its apex, which is sheared by either westerly winds aloft, or by strong easterly winds at the surface. The term was first seen in an Air Force Satellite Interpretation handbook written by Hank Brandley in 1974. It was coined with this phrase due to its strong resemblance to the head of an eagle.

560. CaicosRetiredSailor 12:52 AM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting Vero1:
Anyone Know what they are talking about in the comment below??
... SCREAMING EAGLE FEATURE.


See:
Link
and:
Link

...interesting

CRS

718. congaline "What is a screaming eagle?"

554. extreme236 "(from WikipediaM): A screaming eagle is...a tropical wave with active thunderstorm activity at its apex, which is sheared by either westerly winds aloft, or by strong easterly winds at the surface.
The term was first seen in an Air Force Satellite Interpretation handbook written by Hank Brandley in 1974. It was coined with this phrase due to its strong resemblance to the head of an eagle
."
Thanks Pottery...I hope soooooo. :)

Off to bed...be safe everyone.

look at 98L , I have the COC at around 15.3N/69W, now look southeast at around 13.5N/66W looks like another possible circulation south and further east, anyone else notice this?
Can you see the screaming eagle that NHC is talking about in satellite view, or is it better seen in radar? I can't recognize in either one a feature like that...
733. Vero1
Quoting congaline:
Whatis a screaming eagle?


Here are the links:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_training/world_wind_regimes/Screaming_Eagle/index.html

http://libertyyes.homestead.com/Hank-Brandli-25.html
734. Vero1
Quoting congaline:
Can you see the screaming eagle that NHC is talking about in satellite view, or is it better seen in radar? I can't recognize in either one a feature like that...


ALSO...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 73W-75W...WHICH IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A FAST WESTWARD-MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE
KNOWN AS A SCREAMING EAGLE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
S FLORIDA BY 13/0600 UTC...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TONIGHT TO S FLORIDA.
I saw it too but thought my eyes wete deceiving me. Isn't that what hapened with Gustav E of Jamaica ?
98L looking like a TS right now!!!,IMO
98l prob a ts at 5am tommorow or 11am
screaming eagle beak on the Georgia/SC Border, more on the Georgia side though.
Quoting congaline:
Can you see the screaming eagle that NHC is talking about in satellite view, or is it better seen in radar? I can't recognize in either one a feature like that...


Other stuff here...

Navy Site Screaming Eagle Tutorial

'steeda
732. congaline "Can you see the screaming eagle that NHC is talking about in satellite view, or is it better seen in radar? I can't recognize in either one a feature like that"

More to do with the appearance of a head wearing an eagle feather war bonnet.

Hence the quasi-translated "US NativeAmerican-sounding" name.
Quoting surfmom:
Hades, got a bet w/my spouse on this and I think you may know the answer. If I remember correctly -- there is no thunder in Hawaii......something to do w/ no cold fronts..... do I have this screwed up?.... or do i win



I live in the Tampa Bay area, the most thunderstorm plagued area in the US and one of the most lightning frequency areas in the world.

And we get most of our thunderstorm activity when there AREN'T cold fronts... As in June through September, however we can get a lot of squall lines with intense lightning from coldfronts in the winter, lghtning is most in frequent from October into November, and again March into May, we get a rebound in more frequent heavy rains and severe weather during the winter here. Not nearly as much as the summer months though.



Basically thunder is all about atmospheric instabilty and the strength of updrafts...


Hurricanes for example tend to have unimpressive lightning activity due the way tropical convection forms...


Tropical convection develops under the conditions of a soked atmosphere either lifted by the sun energy or by low pressure.

Udrafts tend to be slower in nature which keeps lightning infrequent, this is due to the atmosphere being extremely wet creating a heaviness in the air. Also there is a much larger column of warm air, which also means updrafts don't shot upward, instead the whole cloud steadily rises till a deep wall of water plummets to the ground creating blinding rain and often viloent winds.



What happens here in Florida is we get deep tropical air masses, very favorable for convection, but cause we get a lot of sunlight, it makes up for the lack of lift in a tropical atmosphere causing strong updrafts...

For a convection to produce lightning, it needs some drier air to cause it, well how does it do that whe an atmosphere is very wet in Florida?


The sun creates massive amounts of energy for strong updrafts in the deep tropical atmosphere, when convection forms, it forces it upward RAPIDLY, which will cause a pocket of drier air below it favorable for explosive lightning potential cause the massive amounts of moisture is shoved way up in the atmoshere at an amazing rate, leaving drier air behind. Causing intense and dangerous lightning.


Cold front effectively produce lightning due to cold air aloft and drier air mixing in, as well as strong lift cause of frontasl convergance.


However what happens in Florida with lightning storms is even more effecient due to the massive heating energy combined with a deep tropical airmass.

Interestingly enough deep tropical airmasses tend to spress lightning by themselves like what happens in hurricanes due to making the air heavy, saturated and warmer which means slower updrafts.

However, because tropical airmasses are much better suited for strong convection then drier cooler mid-lattitude airmasses are. When they are combined with strong heating like we get in Florida, its a crazy cmbination, causing very intense thunderstorms.


Again on the subject of hurricanes though, the main reason there is less lightning is the airmass is usually too saturated and heavy, as well as now sun energy, so updrafts are heavy and don't rise as rapidly, however they produce very intense rain and wind.

But hurricane eye walls have been known for VERY impressive lightning, why you might ask?

Well the reason for this is all the energy a hurricane absorbs comes up through the eyewall, in the eyewall, massive amounts of warm ocean water is evaporated into the clouds at a startlingly high rate, this evironment is literally perfect for the most intense thunderstorms on earth as ltent heat energy and moisture reaches incredibly high rate, all the energy released causes highly unstable conditions causing thick heavy thunderstorm cloudds to rise rapidly sometimes breaking the stratusphere at over 80000 ft, as the thick airmass thickens further as it cools rapidly and condenses. Explosive thunderstorms occurr, causing violent winds walls of water and often intense lightning, and despite a very warm tropical airmass, even sometimes large hail has been reported, as well as rapid falls in air pressure due to intense convection.


Unlike mid lattitude storms, hurricanes deepen due to intense convection dropping the air pressure, where as mid lattitude storms only strengthen from airmass contrasts and jet stream energy.


but as that energy is released it moves horrizontally throught the hurricane helping to feed heay bands of rain and squalls, but isn't enough to cause lightning due to a saturated airmass and not not enough heat. So the further away from a hurricane you go, the convection gets weaker and more of a steady heavy and stable rain.




Link

Look at this link , on the Georgia/SC border is that beak like feature the screaming eagle? Just a guess I'm not sure.
742...that beak is over my house and is pissing me off. Night kids (this time I really mean it)

Link
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Norbert is likely fully dissipated by now.


dont think so - kansas likely to get 6-8 inches per jeffs advisory
the screaming eagle is just east of the bahamas screaming west,should be over central FL tomorrow just in time for the sea breeze action as well central/south FL get ready for some heavy rain and storms tomorrow thats for sure!!!!
746. Relix
98L could be a TD tomorrow, not gonna jump the gun. Seems the tracks put PR in a safe position. MY prayers are for those in DR and Haiti though, God knows how hard it has been for them.
747. JRRP

748. 7544
98l is looking to be a tricky one to tell where its going to go imo

do these members look and think before they type??




nope
750. BtnTx
Blog died?
751. BtnTx
My mother in law is called Nana..
Good Night
752. BtnTx
I also find it strange that my avatar pic disappeared for a few months and has now reappeared with no intervention by me. Oh well, beats having a hurricane! Good night all
it looks to me as if 98L is getting a bit better organized
i dont care what they say. but 98L is not moving nw, its moving to the west or a little north of due west!
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Storm ... Nana
Present Satellite picture ... Nana

Invest ... 98L
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS... WHICH HAVE BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN SOME AREAS THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 98L

Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
Orca,

Aren't you supposed to be sleeping and getting well?

Since you're here "Happy Thanksgiving!"

Hope you're feeling better soon.
757. ackee
what 98L current movemet is it W or SW
Good morning.

Nana made it to two advisories, well done her. And we have Recon in tomorrow. Should be an interesting day.
758. Cotillion

'Morning!

If they fly out of Tampa, they'll go right over my house. Always fun to watch people play "find the vortex" on here when recon is up.
Quoting ackee:
what 98L current movemet is it W or SW


NW.
Quoting RobDaHood:
758. Cotillion

'Morning!

If they fly out of Tampa, they'll go right over my house. Always fun to watch people play "find the vortex" on here when recon is up.


Hah, yes. Though more often than not, no vortex is found.

Seems that next year will probably be the same as the last 2, since we'll have Neutral conditions again. Lots of tropical storms that are fairly weak, a few hurricanes, and a couple of very deadly ones.

Maybe 2010/11 (The successor to 04/05) can be El Nino years. We could sure do with a bit of warmer weather.
761. Cotillion

You may be right about '09 conditions from what I've read, though personally I've given up on trying to figure out the tropics more that a week out!

Last winter was nice in FL, though not so much for you guys. Not many chances to wear the leather though.
Good Lord...Lotta convection.

763. Stormchaser2007 2:53 AM EDT on October 13, 2008
Good Lord...Lotta convection.


And a whole lotta rain so of PR

NWS Radar Long Range San Juan
Quoting RobDaHood:
761. Cotillion

You may be right about '09 conditions from what I've read, though personally I've given up on trying to figure out the tropics more that a week out!

Last winter was nice in FL, though not so much for you guys. Not many chances to wear the leather though.


Haven't had really good weather since like 2006. :(

And yes, impressive convection with our invest. Though convection do not maketh the storm.... (Not on its own anyway.)
Quoting RobDaHood:
763. Stormchaser2007 2:53 AM EDT on October 13, 2008
Good Lord...Lotta convection.


And a whole lotta rain so of PR

NWS Radar Long Range San Juan


Those poor people...
Quoting Cotillion:


Haven't had really good weather since like 2006. :(

And yes, impressive convection with our invest. Though convection do not maketh the storm.... (Not on its own anyway.)


Well that convection is over the COC so I wouldnt be surprised if we saw a TD/Ts in the next 12 hours.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Those poor people...


I'm trying to imagine what it would be like if we'd had Fay 3-4 times this year.
Quoting RobDaHood:


I'm trying to imagine what it would be like if we'd had Fay 3-4 times this year.


Think back to 2004, I guess for Floridians.
Quoting Cotillion:


Think back to 2004, I guess for Floridians.

Lol 2004 was hell for me.
Link

I guess they feel how Tewkesbury/Gloucester have felt in the last 2 years. But worse.
Quoting Cotillion:


Think back to 2004, I guess for Floridians.


I try not to, 2004 'bout wiped me out. But for us 2004 was a wind event. Ground was pretty saturated by the time Jeane came along, so lots of trees down.
771. Cotillion

Wow, that picture pretty much says it all.
774. 7544
98l did very well in dmax also seems like it wants to head more west before turning also notice the models were constantly showing a system just so of cuba like 4 days ago could be where about that time 98l will just might end up soon
775. 7544
models watching the orange clp5 one

Link
000
WTNT44 KNHC 130833
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

NANA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN BLOB OF
DEEP CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2332 UTC MEASURED 30-35 KT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE
DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...SINCE THE TIME
OF THAT OVERPASS...NANA MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...I WILL MAINTAIN
THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE GLOBAL MODEL'S 200 MB WIND
FORECASTS SHOWS 25-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS OR SO...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THE SHEAR TO LESSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. NANA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. NANA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WHILE SITUATED TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW
BAM TRACK...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THAT GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.6N 39.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 40.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.7N 41.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 42.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting 7544:
models watching the orange clp5 one

Link


CLP5 is a climatology model, and the most worthless, its not even a true model.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


CLP5 is a climatology model, and the most worthless, its not even a true model.

It had been the most succesful model by far up until 2000.
morning
a very stormy MDR this morning stretching om the gomex to the eatl. firstly 98L now looks to be on it's way to becoming OMAR. the convection has increased considerably in the latest sat pics. and there appears to be a well established CDO. this system could be a player for the NW caribbean in a few days time. on the other hand TS NANA is being torn apart by very strong upper westerly wind shear and it's demise is only a matter of time.
there are two other areas of interest in the catl this morning one at 10n 50w and 13n 43w . both of these areas have shown an increse in convection as well as having some form of rotation. although upper level winds in this area is only marginal for development, both of these areas should be monitored as there is the possibility that something could dramatically spin up
781. JRRP
Personally I think that 98L looks more impressive than Nana
seems like the govt skips td status nw carib does not even have a yellow alert?
783. ackee
will 98L still move NW to pr THEN OUT TO SEA or has track change further west?
Quoting ackee:
will 98L still move NW to pr THEN OUT TO SEA or has track change further west?
The track hasnt changed that I know of. I think Im starting to see the low thats breaking off from the jet stream that Jeff mentioned. Link
783. ackee

0600 UTC Model Tracks for 98L

will move a little westward before the forecast turn to NE
Does anyoe have a working link to the steering layers or wind shear models. All I know how to find havent worked since yesterday. Thanks.
i see a possible 99 90 91 west carib should be 50% leftovers
Current motion is still WNW.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Does anyoe have a working link to the steering layers or wind shear models. All I know how to find havent worked since yesterday. Thanks.


Not as pretty as CIMSS Page, but works
shear map
792. JRRP
1005mb 30kts is not TD ?????
Quoting RobDaHood:


Not as pretty as CIMSS Page, but works
shear map
Thank you Rob. Glad to see there is a good bit of shear still in the northern gulf as that blob in the southern gulf is supposed to give us rain all week. :)
Good morning...

98L is still poorly disorganized. Based on SFC/SHIP reports the COC is displaced from the deep convection to its NE.

It currently has 23kts winds on the NE side (not surprised) with lighter winds of 5 to 10kts on its W and S quadrant. There appears to be a Low, based on SFC obs near the N SA coast.

It will only have a small window of today and may be tomorrow AM to get its act together if it wants to survive the increased shear that is to come soon.

I do hope it doesn't organize much and that its convection is displaced from its center. Have quite a bit of family members in DR and PR and they don't need an organized system... but if it does organize then I do hope it pulls a CMC and puts both Islands on the drier side W side ot it.
Weather in Macon, Georgia:
67.4 degrees F
overcast 1600 ft AGL
humidity - 95%
wind - calm
pressure - 30.16 steady
visibility - 10.0 miles
elevation - 375 ft
793. homelesswanderer

NWS Ruskin office has promised me 30% showers today and clear all week as the high moves southward followed by a "dry" cold front.

30% probably means it will rain for 8 hours (LOL)

If you want shear forcast you can try the Navy

or moe (go to GFS and select shear level in field column)
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F

15.006 N 67.496 W (15°0'20" N 67°29'44" W)

Buoy data I'm trying to understand. :) The winds have been out of the E,SE, or SSE for hours now. Would that make the center west of there?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F

15.006 N 67.496 W (15°0'20" N 67°29'44" W)

Buoy data I'm trying to understand. :) The winds have been out of the E,SE, or SSE for hours now. Would that make the center west of there?



Yes.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F

15.006 N 67.496 W (15°0'20" N 67°29'44" W)

Buoy data I'm trying to understand. :) The winds have been out of the E,SE, or SSE for hours now. Would that make the center west of there?


Yes... the center is currently a bit enlongated due to the shear to its NW/N, although not high... but strong enough to prevent coupling of Mid and Low level circulations. The true center based on SFC analysis seems to lie a bit closer to the SA Coast.
Quoting RobDaHood:
793. homelesswanderer

NWS Ruskin office has promised me 30% showers today and clear all week as the high moves southward followed by a "dry" cold front.

30% probably means it will rain for 8 hours (LOL)

If you want shear forcast you can try the Navy

or moe (go to GFS and select shear level in field column)
Thanks again. I hope you dont get 8 hours of rain. Yuck! :) Sounds like our local mets. Checked one channels site for weekly forecast they hadnt updated itsince Friday. LOL.
Thanks vortfix and wxlogic. Hard to get a handle on the center. And I too hope it spares the Islands the worst of the convection.
That is the latest surface analysis from the TPC....one hour old.
Morning all.
Got up today to an extremely cloudy day and showers just off the coast.
I can see the rain over the ocean waiting to come in.
It seems to me that things are starting to materialize, and on the news they just said it too...
98 is barely moving and seems to be a bit elongated. Wouldn't this tend to mean it is feeling the effects and gearing for a shift in direction?
Thankfully, if it starts to move now because of the sheer it may mean that the sheer wont relax at all that much to let it organize. But either way. We all know it doesnt take a storm to cause havoc if it has as much rain as this sucker seems to have.
805. IKE
Extended discussion from Birmingham,AL....

"GFS and European model (ecmwf) displaying fair agreement in the more extended time
frame. Best rain chances come Thursday and Friday as a cold front
will slowly traverse the area. Dry airmass ahead of the front and
dry airmass behind the front will make the moisture available only
in a narrow band at the frontal zone. No huge influx of Gulf
moisture apparent here. Previous runs have hinted at a stalling
front while the last few model outputs have a slightly more
progressive front. Started to transition to the bit more progressive
approach...believe we will see an airmass change by late Friday
followed by another drier surge Saturday.
Mentioned 20-30 probability of precipitation
along Thursday through Friday."...........


Nice surge of cool air heading into the SE USA this upcoming weekend. Tropical season is about over for the northern gulf-coast.
Long range:




Happy Monday morning everyone...

Oxymoron...I know.
802. homelesswanderer

Snuck out to peek at those bouys and by the time I got back you had your answer.

BTW I wasn't knocking the NWS in that post, just commenting about my luck with weather. If it rains, it rains on me - unless I want it to.
Quoting RobDaHood:
802. homelesswanderer

Snuck out to peek at those bouys and by the time I got back you had your answer.

BTW I wasn't knocking the NWS in that post, just commenting about my luck with weather. If it rains, it rains on me - unless I want it to.
LOL. NP. Yes the NWS is usually correct about our weather too. And I know how you feel about the bad weather luck. We could be in the middle of a record breaking drought til I'm supposed to go fishing. LOL
Good morning

From looking at the shortwave loop, the center of 98L would appear to be near 15.2N 70.8W

The system is still being sheared from the W and I am waiting on the QS pass to see what type of organization there is with the low.
2004 was real bad in my area. I think might see 98l upgraded today
Quikscat looks as if it will miss all or some of the area where 98L is currently located.
Quoting kmanislander:
Quikscat looks as if it will miss all or some of the area where 98L is currently located.
Geeze and it missed it last night -- Pottery was right - more miss then hits... I think we need two of them up there.
814. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT4.


$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN
G'day everyone, 98L looks like it has sucked up a lot of moisture in the last few hours, things might start to get interesting,Link
811FTpierce -I remember how bad you guys looked 2004 -- when my son and I went back to help some friends--I just remember weeping - the drive across the state was so depressing... all the old trees that were knocked down....still have those vivid pictures in my mind and the SMELLS -- that too!!
Quoting BeanTech:
Happy Monday morning everyone...

Oxymoron...I know.
Painful one this Monday ughhhhhh -- but it's a beautiful day out there so I'll focus on that
818. IKE
Omar in the making....that'll put it at 15 named storms.....
819. IKE
Taz will be beside himself
Taz will be beside himself
Morning Kman = figures, these storms are gettin' real good at hiding from that Sat.

Bean, Surfmom, KWB, and everyone else that said hi, goodmorning. Not trying to be rude, just preoccupied...Gonna be a busy day.
hey I have a prediction for today, and that is the blog will be a busy one LOL
Quoting Cotillion:
Link

I guess they feel how Tewkesbury/Gloucester have felt in the last 2 years. But worse.
Is that where the tanning industry is???? We have had a major shortage of leather from England here in the States. what we have been told was the flooding ruined huge quantities of leather in the shops and warehouses in England. When we need to rebuild saddles (large pieces of leather for the seats) or even have things like bridles, reins etc made up by craftsman --the leathermen get the best materials from England. I had to fight for the leather piece that we used to rebuild a worn saddle..LOL and yes the polo player was bigger then me ...luckily I am cuter
Latest 48 hour surface forecast:


Photobucket

Quoting keywestbrat:
hey I have a prediction for today, and that is the blog will be a busy one LOL


Ha Ha! Just wait till the HHunters get out there and everyone starts playin "find the vortex"!
Good morning Rob and the entire cast of Early Birds....some of whom were Nightbirds last evening

Yes, TAZ is going to be a very exciting weatherman today.... normally I never cheer on a storm...but I will for Taz.... let's hope I don't regret the decision.
827. JRRP
i see big clouds far to the south-east here in Santo Domingo
Winds of the NNE
hey Kman,
I see you have a nice little blob south of you also, hope it doesn't dump to much rain on to you, better get the canoe ready just incase, :)
Looks like Nana will croak like an old woman --least I hope so.
I'll deal w/Omar but only because I like Taz.
Morning Surfmom and all.
Looks to be another nice one here today.
98L looking VERY impressive now. Can it keep that up through the day ?
Nana is just about gone, thanks to the shear.
Hispaniola must be groaning this morning..........
72 hour:


Photobucket


sympathies to the islanders dealing with all this rain -- only good thing is the aquifers may have replenished -- probably been bad for tourism as well. Mostly just saddened for the people of Haiti -- the report from Doctors Without Borders was the situation was horrendous and dire.
Good morning everyone. Nana and 98L. All of this since yesterday morning. 98L looks quite impresive with a large area of very high cloud tops. It will be interesting to see how it develops over the next few hours.
Morning Pottery -- got to say I've been looking at mosguitos a bit differently these days.
Surfmom, the bad ones have stripes on the legs !!
Now you have to get a magnifying glass, and go skulking about in damp places. LOL
836. IKE
Nana looks ready for a downgrade.
Quoting pottery:
Surfmom, the bad ones have stripes on the legs !


Yeah, I remember those...nasty critters!
Does anyone know why the GFS is not included in the forecast model suite for 98L?
ah! the ones with the stripes!
those suckers can suck! they are also the ones that carry the dengue fever... (a nasty mosquito carried disease)
After big rain events you have to go around emptying water sitting around and if you cant empty it dump clorox in it.

About two years ago we had a big dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico. Every bit of water was a breeding ground... I swear it was as if the mosquitoes had just come from a Viagra convention!! They were EVERYWHERE.
THANKFULLY (knocks on wood) I have never had dengue.
Quikscat shows a well defined closed low with 98L near 14.7n 69.8W

This should be upgraded to a TD very soon

Link
841. JRRP
98L -- Atlantic Ocean 13/1145 UTC 15.2N 69.8W T2.0/2.0
843. JRRP
Quoting kmanislander:
Quikscat shows a well defined closed low with 98L near 14.7n 69.8W

This should be upgraded to a TD very soon

Link

may be at 10:30am
yeah surfmom, frances and jeanne's eye made landfall 25mi south of me and all of the trees were stripped of there leaves and the beach landscape was totally changed among many other things. I can't even imagine how bad it is in Texas.
Out for now
Quoting captaincaneguru:
Does anyone know why the GFS is not included in the forecast model suite for 98L?
Im not sure. It seems to show it being taken out to sea in this. Link Hope it helps.
Good morning folks, (I agree Beanteck - it is either an oxymoron or wishcasting)

Windy here, small craft advisories continue. Local met said that all the clouds will "burn off" afternoon. (I thought they would move out with the Low, but I suppose he was talking about residual moisture)

The WU tropical page still shows the 2PM Sunday models for 98l, not sure why

848. JRRP
12 GMT 10/13/08 14.9N 69.6W 30 1005 Invest
Projects to do, BBL.
Belay that order!

WU 8AM 98L model is out now. Posted too quickly
Quoting IKE:
Nana looks ready for a downgrade.
ok NO LIFE SUPPORT FOR THE OLD WOMAN - the non resuscitation order has been posted
852. JRRP
PR good luck
Link
Good morning KEH...have Carolina Blue Skies up here ...60F and light NE wind...Beautiful fall day...looks like its going your way..
nearly all the models takes 98L off to the NE, but for now it appears to be moving due West.
839benirica -- did not realize that breed of mosquito was so close to us. Guess we have been lucky in the states...so far.
Morning surfmom
You are not missing anything here, this gray morning
15kt winds
stomach high and choppy


Quoting IKE:
Extended discussion from Birmingham,AL....

"GFS and European model (ecmwf) displaying fair agreement in the more extended time
frame. Best rain chances come Thursday and Friday as a cold front
will slowly traverse the area. Dry airmass ahead of the front and
dry airmass behind the front will make the moisture available only
in a narrow band at the frontal zone. No huge influx of Gulf
moisture apparent here. Previous runs have hinted at a stalling
front while the last few model outputs have a slightly more
progressive front. Started to transition to the bit more progressive
approach...believe we will see an airmass change by late Friday
followed by another drier surge Saturday.
Mentioned 20-30 probability of precipitation
along Thursday through Friday."...........


Nice surge of cool air heading into the SE USA this upcoming weekend. Tropical season is about over for the northern gulf-coast.


Ike and you can sleep in!
Morning Capt'n Surfmom, ma'm
Mornin' MissNadia
Quoting MissNadia:
Good morning KEH...have Carolina Blue Skies up here ...60F and light NE wind...Beautiful fall day...looks like its going your way..


Good morning, and I certainly appreciate your sending those blue skies this way.

We could use a little taste of fall, about now.
It is strange but the local met forcasted 90's (F) for the end of the week. WU and NOAA local office says low 80's - I think I will go with them ;)
861. JRRP

That was a great QS pass this morning.
Deserves posting again:


Photobucket

Morning MissNadia -- sounds like a lovely day to walk the beach... and check out the sights....totally gorgeous day here in South West Florida - 76 degrees, no humidity - Gulfwater temp is 82 degree -- It's "why I live here weather"....just a sprinkle of tourists--not enough to annoy or feel overwhelmed by strangers..... just want to be an irresponsible adult, leave the spouses office/seatwork and go play outside.....
Rob dear,I have missed you...hehe...what do you have planned for today?...out to the airport to fix a oil leak on a R2800?
Thanks for the water update KEH - a few days ago when it was glassy/waist chest high -- I just moaned and groaned.... really wanted to teleport to your beach -- even if I needed a wetsuit LOL

Surfmom you need to let some of the dry air work down in my area (Ft. Myers).
Its warm and very muggy (high humidity) in my area.

South Fort Myers, Fort Myers, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 9:00 AM EDT on October 13, 2008
77.0 °F / 25.0 °C
Clear
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 3.6 mph / 5.8 km/h / 1.6 m/s from the NE
Wind Gust: 3.6 mph / 5.8 km/h
Pressure: 29.84 in / 1010.4 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 78 °F / 26 °C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 14 ft / 4 m

But the forecast is for dry air to move in by Wednesday in my area.
Quoting JRRP:
PR good luck
Link


I have faith it will keep shifting east...
Looks like the rest of the models are imitating the CMC. Hopefully not in strength, because the CMC shows (or showed) a well formed system along the Anegada Passage.
Quoting MissNadia:
Rob dear,I have missed you...hehe...what do you have planned for today?...out to the airport to fix a oil leak on a R2800?


LMAO!! Nothing that fun...Pulled an all nighter with autocad...Network engineering...Only wrench twisting I do now days is on hot-rods.

Plan for the day ..uhm..get the bid in the mail and take a nap...
LOL MissNadia --mE...Captn'?, maybe in my next lifetime...spouse is the Captain in my world -- I'm the galley slave, first mate.......,(pardon me for this)and sometimes the "booty".

swfl SURF REPORT - how flat is flat? Lots of East winds 10-15mph. Surfer report calling for a c-front 10/19 (?) East Coast is choppy, chunky and fun.
869. surfmom

...spouse is the Captain in my world

Right, you just do a good job of letting him think he's the Cap'n! LOL
Surfmom, yea it is rather chilly, water temp about 68F

About 20 some years ago, I lived on a wooden boat. During the winter, the hull would get sooo quiet. When summer returned with the warm gulf stream waters, the clack-clack of the bi-valves would make such a racket. (Yes.. even with a clean hull, you could here the racket from the growth on the docks)
98L .06 gfdl 54h 99.6knots 970 hPa
98L .06 HWRF 54H 100 KNOTS 933 hPa

over Puerto Rico the two models.
Quoting surfmom:
LOL MissNadia --mE...Captn'?, maybe in my next lifetime...spouse is the
Captain in my world -- I'm the galley slave, first mate.......,(pardon
me for this)and sometimes the "booty".

swfl SURF REPORT - how
flat is flat? Lots of East winds 10-15mph. Surfer report calling for a
c-front 10/19 (?) East Coast is choppy, chunky and fun.

I am in training to be a Pyrate and therefor must show respect to the senior blog pyrate and that is you!!!!! got to go have to make some trips..LOL
Do you think the GFDL is over doing it?
This model typically trustworthy with strength?
I understand it hasn't developed yet, but I would believe the strength it gives it right now at 0 hours and that is usually the problem with models on invests, they dont initialize correctly.
Is there really a chance of a hurricane over Puerto Rico?
I know this has been the season for rapid intensification... but are conditions going to become that favorable?
The GFDL shows a CAT 2! WTF
just like steve lyons said at 10am yesterday things are looking bad for Puerto Rico he said yesterday the system could be around for a few days until it gets picked up. good luck to our boriquen friends.
Any other live-aboard notice the sound of the bi-valves, or was it a peculiarity of this area, with distinct summer - winter water temps/patterns
Quoting leftovers:
just like steve lyons said at 10am yesterday things are looking bad for Puerto Rico he said yesterday the system could be around for a few days until it gets picked up. good luck to our boriquen friends.


Whoa he said that?
This is very sad for us.
People are still cleaning out their homes and only now beginning to get money and help from FEMA. Also, soils aren't dry yet.
On the news they continue to show the map of how much rain is needed to flood us after the last event... Guess how much.
1.5 inches in three hours would flood parts of Puerto Rico with the current soil saturation.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS???
A SECOND 100 YEAR FLOOD IN TWO WEEKS!

The Greater Antilles have had enough!
benirica i live in Levittown P.R. 98L look bad for us and gfdl,hwrf,cmc and nam forming a hurricane over us.
LOL - Rob -- In real life I'm very little, it's why I love the blog - I can write BIG
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good morning Storm!
I would love to get your fill on 98
RE:877. benirica

This is the part of watching the tropics that is not fun. To see the tragedy in the making, and yet be unable to affect the course of things, except through prayer and contributions to organizations such as portlight.org and Lambi.




874. benirica

I noticed with the 0600 runs the intensity guidance seemed to pick up across the board.
The HWRF has been kinda wacked on intensity for most of the season, but I wouldn't take my eyes off this one.

0600 intensity quidance

Most show a Mid TS to Mid CAT1
I didn't expect to see this thing blow up as much as it did overnight.
That is fascnating -- to be able to listen to bivalves -- it's nice to be so still, so quiet --that you can hear the life.

Reminds me of of the aftermath of a bad redtide. My son and I were investigating what was left of a particular cove we are very fond of snorkeling.... what we noticed (and had never noticed before) was the shroud of silence that covered everything. No chirps, clickings --sounds of life, fish -- just total silence. B/4 that I never paid attention or had the ear/awarness to hear the underwater songs..... the silence was unnerving
AAL 15 has just been posted on the ATCF FTP page.
888. Vero1
Good Morning StormW...Waiting on your synopsis.
Good morning, guys. Whoa, went to bed for a bit and suddenly all models shifted and put 98L right across us (PR). It's a holiday in here today, and I really hope people pay attention to the weather. I'm in the Rio Piedras area, and though we've had some heavy showers, it's the constant drizzle that's worrisome.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:877. benirica

This is the part of watching the tropics that is not fun. To see the tragedy in the making, and yet be unable to affect the course of things, except through prayer and contributions to organizations such as portlight.org and Lambi.





In total agreement KEH, I find watching these train wrecks in motion really get to me. --I imagine it must affect the forecasters as well --also keeps things in perspective -- it's not us two leggeds in charge - Nature rules. Thoughts out to those on the lovely Island of PR - hope everyone stays SAFE! think this gets a candle this morning
Quoting StormW:
882. KEHCharleston 9:27 AM EDT on October 13, 2008
RE:877. benirica

This is the part of watching the tropics that is not fun. To see the tragedy in the making, and yet be unable to affect the course of things, except through prayer and contributions to organizations such as portlight.org and Lambi.


I hear ya KEH...that is the part that's painful for me as a meteorologist...I can forecast the stuff, but when it develops and does things like it's doing now, there's not a damn thing I can do about it. It's kind of a helpless feeling.
Good morning Storm. Dont feel too bad. Your forecasts do help. The slosh model and your prediction of Ike's surge helped convince me to evacuate. You made it to where I could understand it. And I'm forever grateful. :)
892. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike and you can sleep in!


I'll try....perfect weekend....blue skies...lower humidity!
While we are waiting for StormW's analysis, I offer you this website.
Charleston Bump. (Though, on second thought it may only be of interest to fisherman, and both Carolinas ( do not tell press I said that)
Information About Tropical Depression FifteenStorm information valid as of: Monday, October 13, 2008 12:00 Z 14.9N 69.6W Pressure (MSLP): 1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)

Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)

so true Homelesswanderer - !!! StormW did get quite a few people off the couch and to safer ground -- You did/do make a difference... never doubt that Storm!!!
896. IKE
Navy site has 99L.....
Quoting IKE:
Navy site has 99L.....


Wunderground too
Quoting IKE:
Navy site has 99L.....


where is 99L going to be
I see we now have a new Invest 99L In the SW caribbean near/ around 13N/82W.
900. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where is 99L going to be


I'll guess western Caribbean...near Nicaragua. Looks impressive on satellite.
RE:894. THUNDERPR
Thanks! I see it now on the navy page.
I'm off to peeking & lurking.....the Captain is on deck and I don't want to walk the plank.....old trophy wives can be replaced.... LOL - oh yeah,due to the economic forecast.... too expensive to do that now WHEW!
Candle lit, prayer in mind for all those in need this morning... rain rain go away leave PR for another day....this include S.Domingo and Haiti
Storm. It is people like you that let people like me get ready and warn everyone I can.
Whatever can happen with this seems it will be without warning.
I can't imagine the effects rapid intensification would have on anyone, not just here in Puerto Rico.
I know its not likely, but anything is possible and you MUST prepare for the worst!
904. IKE
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 13.4 82.1W — Movement: N .......

99L...moving north...watch out Caymans...Cuba...if that path continues!
905. IKE
98L should wind up being Omar.

99L may wind up being Paloma.
might get alittle fujiwara 98 99
907. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
might get alittle fujiwara 98 99


Their about 750 miles apart.
908. Vero1
Quoting IKE:
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 13.4 82.1W — Movement: N .......

99L...moving north...watch out Caymans...Cuba...if that path continues!

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPECIAL FEATURE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N69W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE HONDURAS COAST.
THIS FLOW IS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA-TO-NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 17N TO
18N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. ALL THIS IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE CUBA-TO-HONDURAS LINE. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CUBA-TO-HONDURAS LINE.

RE 904. IKE Northerly path of TD15

Is this the beginning of the curve to the east?
910. IKE
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE 904. IKE Northerly path of TD15

Is this the beginning of the curve to the east?


Have high pressure building in to it's north. Don't think it will head NE right now.
911. IKE
99L is flaring up with convection.
912. IKE
There's a trough coming down this weekend to the SE USA. That may influence 99L's eventual path.
I am the captain of my own ship. So I suppose, I will have to make myself walk the plank if I do not get some work done. I will be workin' and lurkin'
I think I just might see the sun coming out!
914. IKE
99L models...

915. Vero1
first time this yr i have seen a rapidly developing td 99 the system was really weak yesterday. is there a rule on distance for a fujiwara effect? seems close enough ike
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE 904. IKE Northerly path of TD15

Is this the beginning of the curve to the east?


KEH - that post was for 99L not TD15. :)
Quoting benirica:
Whatever can happen with this seems it will be without warning


Hey Benirica! While I do agree this event looks bad for us as it might bring precipitation we certainly not need, I think it's been said enough over the past couple of days that we have to watch 98L closely. I know most were busy planning the holiday weekend, but I guess responsible people is keeping an eye on the weather. It's been raining in here since Friday, and you know we don't need a named system for flooding to wreck havoc. Hope everyone learned their lesson after what happened a couple weeks ago.
Geeze Louise, no wonder I confused myself, I was thinking we were talking about 98l/TD15
Did not see 99l
I suppose coffee with my chores, then I will be back.
920. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
first time this yr i have seen a rapidly developing td 99 the system was really weak yesterday. is there a rule on distance for a fujiwara effect? seems close enough ike


I think it's within 600 miles.
921. IKE
99L......

NEW BLOG
you think 99L will be red alert??? at next update