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PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want some rain here in The Caymans, its been so dry, an early season weak tropical system with lots of rain would be a welcome relief here
Hey SP long time no see. How are you and your fine family?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want some rain here in The Caymans, its been so dry, an early season weak tropical system with lots of rain would be a welcome relief here


No kidding. 2.78 inches total since Jan 1st.

The models are hinting at possibly getting some this weekend, maybe Sunday.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No worries, I don't mean to stir the pot. Just a little joke. :)


PSL.. you can stir the pot....please do....too quiet here..lol
Quoting tornadodude:


what's on saturday? lol

*returns to lurking


Rapture, as some people say. I say that's BS.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


been a lot of quiet nights lately, hello Twinc, good to see ya.

and a hello to Tornadodude,too


hey

how have you been?

I havent been on here in forever haha
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

Only 2 more full shopping days, until we can find out where we're headed......


DWL!!!!
The NAM likes that first Twave

Here is Sunday

JUNE 2011: temperature 76 ° (1 ° above avg. north, 3 ° below south); precipitation 7" (avg. north, 5" above south); Jun 1-7: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Jun 8-12: Hurricane threat; Jun 13-19: Sunny; cool, then warm; Jun 20-30: Scattered t-storms, seasonable.

From the Farmer's Almanac
Quoting tornadodude:


hey

how have you been?

I havent been on here in forever haha


I know, have missed ya ! Think about ya when the chases are going on. Reed Timmer was In my neck of the woods (in Ms) 2 times in March....
Quoting Jax82:


I have a $5 quick pick for powerball, probably going to be a $5 quick loser. If I win, i'll buy everyone a beer, or a rain shower, whichever is preferred.
i would like one of those fish shower curtains


lol
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I know, have missed ya ! Think about ya when the chases are going on. Reed Timmer was In my neck of the woods (in Ms) 2 times in March....


Ive been out chasing a ton this year! have seen 12 tornadoes this year, been a heck of a year for them.

Im actually headed out to the plains (from Indiana) on the 29th, hoping for another great trip

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
JUNE 2011: temperature 76 ° (1 ° above avg. north, 3 ° below south); precipitation 7" (avg. north, 5" above south); Jun 1-7: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Jun 8-12: Hurricane threat; Jun 13-19: Sunny; cool, then warm; Jun 20-30: Scattered t-storms, seasonable.

From the Farmer's Almanac
They aren't a very reputable source, in my experience.
Quoting kimoskee:


DWL!!!!


I'm so Internet slang deprived, I had to look that up. LMAO :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i would like one of those fish shower curtains


lol


LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i would like one of those fish shower curtains


lol


Good evening, Keeper. I had you pegged for a
Kevlar vest and body armor...:)
Quoting tornadodude:


what's on saturday? lol

*returns to lurking


(snickers) I'm not telling!!
Interesting article in live science about deep sea jets of water effecting western africa climate
Quoting tornadodude:


Ive been out chasing a ton this year! have seen 12 tornadoes this year, been a heck of a year for them.

Im actually headed out to the plains (from Indiana) on the 29th, hoping for another great trip


Been a really good year for tornado chasers, for sure.......too good.....glad you're realizing your dream....but stay safe...:)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm so Internet slang deprived, I had to look that up. LMAO :)


Don't worry I have to do that also! :-D
Quoting bappit:

Bittersweet news.


Ultimately, meh. My high school is a great high school academically, but in terms of the administration, it sucks. Great classmates, great teachers, great curricula. Otherwise, pbfft.

Quoting tornadodude:


Lol it's missed, but certainly gets better


Let's hope so.

Quoting Jax82:


I have a $5 quick pick for powerball, probably going to be a $5 quick loser. If I win, i'll buy everyone a beer, or a rain shower, whichever is preferred.


Or you could just average the two and get everyone of drinking age a beer shower.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i would like one of those fish shower curtains


lol


Lol a fish storm curtain -- hurricanes over water.
Quoting kimoskee:


Don't worry I have to do that also! :-D



:D

LOL! Thanks.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Been a really good year for tornado chasers, for sure.......too good.....glad you're realizing your dream....but stay safe...:)



yeah been a bad year, but regardless of if people chase them or not, they will happen, but yeah, been great being able to go out and do what I have dreamed of :)

working on moving to either Oklahoma City or Kansas City by year's end
Quoting tornadodude:



yeah been a bad year, but regardless of if people chase them or not, they will happen, but yeah, been great being able to go out and do what I have dreamed of :)

working on moving to either Oklahoma City or Kansas City by year's end


I wish I can hunt tornadoes like you. I'm only 13 and sometimes I drag my dad to take me to chase whenever a severe storm is in the area. I never have seen a tornado fully touch the ground although I did see plenty of funnel clouds.
Quoting hurricaneben:


I wish I can hunt tornadoes like you. I'm only 13 and sometimes I drag my dad to take me to chase whenever a severe storm is in the area. I never have seen a tornado fully touch the ground although I did see plenty of funnel clouds.


persistence is the key. just keep reading and studying whatever you can online or wherever. This site has taught me so much in the 5 years I've been here. met many great people and learned more than I did in my science classes at college haha
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good evening, Keeper. I had you pegged for a
Kevlar vest and body armor...:)
really naw iam just a little guy but then again they do say large bombs come in small packages
Quoting tornadodude:



yeah been a bad year, but regardless of if people chase them or not, they will happen, but yeah, been great being able to go out and do what I have dreamed of :)

working on moving to either Oklahoma City or Kansas City by year's end


I'll skip the bit about the rapture, this time. I wish you the best, TD. :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
really naw iam just a little guy but then again they do say large bombs come in small packages


you could never be a "little guy"....you are bigger than life....in a very good way :)
Quoting hurricaneben:


I wish I can hunt tornadoes like you. I'm only 13 and sometimes I drag my dad to take me to chase whenever a severe storm is in the area. I never have seen a tornado fully touch the ground although I did see plenty of funnel clouds.


Keep at it Ben. I'm glad to see that our successor's are taking an interest in the weather that shapes our lives. Kudos!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want some rain here in The Caymans, its been so dry, an early season weak tropical system with lots of rain would be a welcome relief here


hey stormpetrol long time no hear. How are you how is thing up your end? and I agree 100% with you a TS with alot of rain I need
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
really naw iam just a little guy but then again they do say large bombs come in small packages


When I think of you Keep, the Pale Rider always comes to mind. :)
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL


Hi; Do you have any new videos?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'll skip the bit about the rapture, this time. I wish you the best, TD. :)



haha you too man!

Quoting sunlinepr:


Hi; Do you have any new videos?


hey, yeah I'll post a couple. I have been working with a chase team based out of Champaign, Illinois
called MIDSCAR (Midwest Storm Chase and Research)

These are our videos from April 9th, 2011 near Mapleton, Iowa



Mapleton (daytime ef3)

NW Iowa Tornadoes (10 nighttime tornadoes)
537. JRRP
Quoting kmanislander:
The NAM likes that first Twave

Here is Sunday



Wouldn't be surprised if you got a shower or two from it. The trough-split diving into the NW Caribbean will likely draw the wave and its moisture northward.
Quoting tornadodude:



haha you too man!



Thanks!
The wave is now entering Guyana. It will be interesting to track as it is drawn northwestward in the coming days. Hunting down the location of a tropical wave over South America is always a joy, too.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Big grin. You're a fine soul, Friend. Viva, Toronto.
Quoting Levi32:
The wave is now entering Guyana. It will be interesting to track as it is drawn northwestward in the coming days. Hunting down the location of a tropical wave over South America is always a joy, too.

More Rain for PR?? We got hail again today, so some really crazy thunderstorms :( and flooding landslides...
Hey y'all.

I'm up in MA. Everyone's holdin' up well including me. Just checkin' in and makin' sure everyone's ok. I'll be on again soon.


I'm off to bed. Thanks for the fun! May the coming non-event leave us all well.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself... Dang it, Press!!


Quoting caneswatch:
Hey y'all.

I'm up in MA. Everyone's holdin' up well including me. Just checkin' in and makin' sure everyone's ok. I'll be on again soon.


Good evening, Canes. Talk to you soon. Our condolences, for your family.
Quoting tornadodude:


hey, yeah I'll post a couple. I have been working with a chase team based out of Champaign, Illinois
called MIDSCAR (Midwest Storm Chase and Research)

These are our videos from April 9th, 2011 near Mapleton, Iowa



Mapleton (daytime ef3)

NW Iowa Tornadoes (10 nighttime tornadoes)


Some awesome videos !! Large hail and everything...Gheez, I was frigthened just watching..
I watch TornadoVideos.Net on line, so now that I know your with MIDSCAR, I will follow and spread the word. GREAT WORK, Tornadodude
Quoting Gearsts:
More Rain for PR?? We got hail again today, so some really crazy thunderstorms :( and flooding landslides...


Fortunately, it looks like the wave will be turning north pretty far west, re-directing the tropical moisture stream mostly to the west of PR.
Quoting Levi32:


Fortunately, it looks like the wave will be turning north pretty far west, re-directing the tropical moisture stream mostly to the west of PR.
Great news!I will see the sunshine again hopefully.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Some awesome videos !! Large hail and everything...Gheez, I was frigthened just watching..
I watch TornadoVideos.Net on line, so now that I know your with MIDSCAR, I will follow and spread the word. GREAT WORK, Tornadodude


Awesome! glad you enjoyed it!

This year has definitely been one heck of a year to chase haha

But yeah, I'll make sure to pop on here and post when we go live next time!
Quoting Levi32:
The wave is now entering Guyana. It will be interesting to track as it is drawn northwestward in the coming days. Hunting down the location of a tropical wave over South America is always a joy, too.

lol
Quoting caneswatch:
Hey y'all.

I'm up in MA. Everyone's holdin' up well including me. Just checkin' in and makin' sure everyone's ok. I'll be on again soon.


Glad you made it ok and everyone is holding up well. Take good care..
Some people have no faith in the Tropical Storm / Name theory, but it IS in fact a theory. There is some historical basis; (ie: the Great Galveston Hurricane did in fact hit Galveston in 1900. Coincidence? The Labor Day Hurricane actually hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day in 1935. Coincidence?) Those are two examples of storms whose names determined either where or when they would make landfall.

Rather than throwing out some bogus statement like "We predict between 12-20 named storms"... which is like throwing darts at the broad side of a barn... the NAME theory dares to utilize a storm's given "psychic" ID to determine it's path and eventual destiny. Generally, the Named Storm theory is vaguely correct while also remaining relatively inaccurate. There is a non-scientific method to this madness.

Maybe in the past, storms and hurricanes could get by with innocuous names, but in this day and age of mass merchandizing, made-for-television documentaries and 24/7 tropical storm reporting... the storm NAME influences more than just it's strength and landfall potential. The Storm NAME helps the TV Network ratings and therefor sells commercial time. Storms these days DO live up to their names.

The theory works. Watch and learn.
oh looky what I found
I guess I am right about maybe seeing development on that TWave lokk here it even in the forecast

Quoting TexasGulf:
Some people have no faith in the Tropical Storm / Name theory, but it IS in fact a theory. There is some historical basis; (ie: the Great Galveston Hurricane did in fact hit Galveston in 1900. Coincidence? The Labor Day Hurricane actually hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day in 1935. Coincidence?) Those are two examples of storms whose names determined either where or when they would make landfall.

Rather than throwing out some bogus statement like "We predict between 12-20 named storms"... which is like throwing darts at the broad side of a barn... the NAME theory dares to utilize a storm's given "psychic" ID to determine it's path and eventual destiny. Generally, the Named Storm theory is vaguely correct while also remaining relatively inaccurate. There is a non-scientific method to this madness.

Maybe in the past, storms and hurricanes could get by with innocuous names, but in this day and age of mass merchandizing, made-for-television documentaries and 24/7 tropical storm reporting... the storm NAME influences more than just it's strength and landfall potential. The Storm NAME helps the TV Network ratings and therefor sells commercial time. Storms these days DO live up to their names.

The theory works. Watch and learn.
Loool
Quoting TexasGulf:
Some people have no faith in the Tropical Storm / Name theory, but it IS in fact a theory. There is some historical basis; (ie: the Great Galveston Hurricane did in fact hit Galveston in 1900. Coincidence? The Labor Day Hurricane actually hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day in 1935. Coincidence?) Those are two examples of storms whose names determined either where or when they would make landfall.


ummm, I pray you are kidding...

Lol
tornadodude you have WU Mail :)
Anyone know where I can get NOAA warning data for a past storm?
Quoting TexasGulf:
Some people have no faith in the Tropical Storm / Name theory, but it IS in fact a theory. There is some historical basis; (ie: the Great Galveston Hurricane did in fact hit Galveston in 1900. Coincidence? The Labor Day Hurricane actually hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day in 1935. Coincidence?) Those are two examples of storms whose names determined either where or when they would make landfall.

Rather than throwing out some bogus statement like "We predict between 12-20 named storms"... which is like throwing darts at the broad side of a barn... the NAME theory dares to utilize a storm's given "psychic" ID to determine it's path and eventual destiny. Generally, the Named Storm theory is vaguely correct while also remaining relatively inaccurate. There is a non-scientific method to this madness.

Maybe in the past, storms and hurricanes could get by with innocuous names, but in this day and age of mass merchandizing, made-for-television documentaries and 24/7 tropical storm reporting... the storm NAME influences more than just it's strength and landfall potential. The Storm NAME helps the TV Network ratings and therefor sells commercial time. Storms these days DO live up to their names.

The theory works. Watch and learn.


You're so totally trolling XD :P
Quoting charlottefl:
Anyone know where I can get NOAA warning data for a past storm?


You may find some here Link
Thanks.


Quoting EYEStoSEA:


You may find some here Link
Seismic Shift? As Bahamas Sink, One Island Mysteriously Rises.
All the islands in the Bahamas were thought to be slowly sinking, but now scientists find one quirky isle going against the crowd.

This anomaly suggests the area may be less seismically stable than previously thought.

Scientists focused on the small island of Mayaguana in the southeast Bahamas, which measures about 33 by 7 miles (53 by 12 kilometers). They noticed shallow banks of rocks called marine carbonates above ground that are usually present dozens of feet below the surface on the other Bahamian islands. These deposits are about 39 feet (12 meters) thick, span more than 17 million years of geologic history, and are only found on the isle's northern coast.

The unusual placement on these rocks gave researchers insights into the tectonic processes going on below the Caribbean.

"It took us about three years to process all the data and come up with a coherent story," said researcher Pascal Kindler, a geologist at the University of Geneva in Switzerland.
TexasGulf - I get it, so there is at least 1 who does :)

Still think you're wrong about Rina though. No pussycat that one.

WTO

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
oh looky what I found
I guess I am right about maybe seeing development on that TWave lokk here it even in the forecast
The southern portion has the best chance at ultimately developing. In fact, extrapolation of the very map you posted actually lends credence to the global models' unanimous solution: that the northern branch of the wave will likely be inconsequential due to strong upper-level shear, ultimately dying across the western Caribbean and/or Central America, while the southern portion of the wave develops a low pressure area, crosses Central America, emerges into the Pacific, and ultimately develops into Tropical Storm Adrian.
I'm sure you guys have already beat the subject to death, but I'm just home from a 16 hour shift, logged on and seen it had been hours since the last post on here. (Third Shift, take the night off?:)) So I'll make one..

That PSU experimental forecast seems to make quite a bit of sense to me. Look at last year. The Atlantic Basin was the king of SST's, outside of coastal Asian areas. Being close to land, those high SST's over there didn't really enhance any tropical activity. The E-Pac, as we all know, was a wash due to La-Nina. So the Atlantic was the SST hotspot. And what correlates with warm SST's? Yep, MJO. And it was more or less stuck in our Basin, seemingly for the duration of the summer and fall. And we all know the numbers 2010 pulled in. Globally low amounts of tropical activity, with the Atlantic being the exception. We carried the ACE for the most part, that I think is without dispute.

So to assume that lower SST's elsewhere in the world, when in correlation with higher SST's in the Atlantic, would give the Atlantic have higher numbers of storms seems almost a given to me. I sadly don't have the time to put together a in depth analysis to prove or disprove it, but I'm sure there's a good blogger or 2 who could.

ncforecaster, How about you? You rock with stats (as your blogs so succinctly show). Hope you see this comment, heck if not, WU-Mail!

Good Morning WU! I'll be your wake up call for now on, just don't expect much in reply, as I'll be soon fast asleep. (Graveyard shifter here)
566. IKE
5 day QPF....yawn~


Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....yawn~




5 day QPF, Sigh, perhaps a slight swear even!

I guess it's the difference in location that separates our views on this map? :) Good morning IKE (from grass growing like it's on Miracle Grow) Central Indiana. I'd give you my rain, in return for perhaps a nice warm May afternoon, with no dreary mist or showers. Sound like a deal?
568. IKE

Quoting nocaneindy:


5 day QPF, Sigh, perhaps a slight swear even!

I guess it's the difference in location that separates our views on this map? :) Good morning IKE (from grass growing like it's on Miracle Grow) Central Indiana. I'd give you my rain, in return for perhaps a nice warm May afternoon, with no dreary mist or showers. Sound like a deal?
I don't blame you.

Stuck in a serious rut...one way or the other.
sigh...thanks I guess, Ike.
570. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
sigh...thanks I guess, Ike.
I'll take a peak at the GFS and ECMWF and see if there's any hope.
571. IKE
Latest GFS and possibly ECMWF, is showing a cold front(with a chance of rain), that looks like it makes it through the SE USA next Friday and Saturday and then the current pattern looks like it changes...hopefully.

What's that in the western Caribbean at 216 hours on the 00Z ECMWF?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu rotropical850mbVortSLP216.gif

EDITS>>>>Looks like the file won't come up, but the ECMWF shows a 1008mb low in the western Caribbean on day 9.
Dear all,

Last night I watched the Day After Tomorrow, I enjoyed Jake punching a wolf but am wondering if the climate change on that level is realistic?

Kind Regards,

Jerry Fartwell
575. P451
All imagery are "static" loops in that they will not update. All imagery is courtesy of the U of Hawaii Meteorology. You can get 10 days or more of imagery if you manipulate the URL to their imagery. When you visit the site, where you see the line "&period=720" that indicates 12 hours of imagery. If you manipulate to 1440 you get 24, 2880 you get 48, and etc. I have gone to 10 days (14400) but it is EXTREMELY SYSTEM INTENSIVE so SAVE WORK AND CLOSE ALL WINDOWS before you experiment! Also the "&incr=30" can be changed to "60" to get one frame per hour when you're requesting days worth of imagery.




72-48 Hours WV Imagery:




48-24 Hours WV Imagery:




24-0 Hours WV Imagery:





You can note starting around "24 hours to go" that the mid-atlantic low finally starts to depart. With about "12 hours to go" you can see the western regions start to move eastward. It has now shut off the ability to form more secondary lows. Several times we watched a secondary low form in the upper mid west, rotate southward to and then across the Carolinas and then get pulled back north through VA, PA, arcing back into Ohio only to get absorbed - and then to watch a new secondary low once again form in the upper mid-west only to follow a similar path.

It will be slow but the pattern is finally loosening up. Within 72 hours we will see a more normal flow.

These scenarios are not unique to May anymore as I have followed at least one every other year the past 10 years here in the Mid-Atlantic/NorthEast regions however the stagnant nature of this particular one IS unique. Usually these systems were quick hitters. This year it is not.
576. P451
Quoting HHWindsorOnThames:
Dear all,

Last night I watched the Day After Tomorrow, I enjoyed Jake punching a wolf but am wondering if the climate change on that level is realistic?

Kind Regards,

Jerry Fartwell


Unlikely except several scientists have tried to show that major climate shifts occur in 10 year periods (citing soil layers and ice layers I believe). In that you're in your happy little world for thousands of years and in 10 years time the climate worldwide changes rapidly to it's next phase of thousands of years of common climate.

These scientists believe the ice ages and the hot periods flipped back and forth between each other in a mere 10 years time.

There is a tipping point and then it just takes off.

Not so sure I believe them but all the same it kind of makes sense. You have a gradual entry into climate change and then you hit the tipping point and it goes into freefall for 10 years and then stabilizes in the new climate period.

The Sahara was once a wet tropical jungle. North America was once a sea bed and once a barren desert. These events were apparently triggered by a mere 10 year rapid climate change period.

Again, not sure I believe that, but I do believe in the rapid change theory.



Quoting TexasGulf:
Some people have no faith in the Tropical Storm / Name theory, but it IS in fact a theory. There is some historical basis; (ie: the Great Galveston Hurricane did in fact hit Galveston in 1900. Coincidence? The Labor Day Hurricane actually hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day in 1935. Coincidence?) Those are two examples of storms whose names determined either where or when they would make landfall.

Rather than throwing out some bogus statement like "We predict between 12-20 named storms"... which is like throwing darts at the broad side of a barn... the NAME theory dares to utilize a storm's given "psychic" ID to determine it's path and eventual destiny. Generally, the Named Storm theory is vaguely correct while also remaining relatively inaccurate. There is a non-scientific method to this madness.

Maybe in the past, storms and hurricanes could get by with innocuous names, but in this day and age of mass merchandizing, made-for-television documentaries and 24/7 tropical storm reporting... the storm NAME influences more than just it's strength and landfall potential. The Storm NAME helps the TV Network ratings and therefor sells commercial time. Storms these days DO live up to their names.

The theory works. Watch and learn.


rotflmao
578. P451
Quoting DestinJeff:


let me pull the blog's string:

<<<<<<<<<<<<& l t; pull*


"models that far out are pretty worthless. I'll wait and see if we get any consistency before put too much stock into something that far out, unless of course there is potential for it to come near [insert location]."


Nope. Don't buy it Homer. If the models say we are doom in 384 hours then we are indeed DOOM. Doom I tell you, doom!

And when a random thunderstorm pops up in the area of pre-determined doom at the proper time I will throw my weight behind that model for the rest of the season. So every time it predicts doom...be it tomorrow or 2 months later...I will firmly believe it!

DOOM!

But, I digress, I will only be concerned about it if it threatens NOLA or South Florida. Perhaps some of the Caribbean Islands. Everyone else? WHO CARES ITS A FISH STORM!!!!






.

how'd I do?

579. P451
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


rotflmao

Oh you laugh! But we ALL FEAR THE "I" STORM!

It's always a killer. Always!

...and let's not forget 'humping the ridge'...
Quoting presslord:
...and let's not forget 'humping the ridge'...


Uhhh...?
582. P451
Quoting presslord:
...and let's not forget 'humping the ridge'...


PATTERN CHANGE
WINE
TOES
????
LOL MODELS TAKING IT NORTH ITS GOING WEST YOU WILL SEE

etc...

How's the Pressolina's treatin ya?

583. IKE
another one...

"""I'm looking at it going on a track further NW or west of what the NHC is showing."""

Did he ever think it would go further east than the NHC?


Water: dems dat got don't want en does dat don't, do.
Quoting presslord:
...and let's not forget 'humping the ridge'...


LMAO You slay me, Press.

Good morning, folks.
587. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


or just "yeah, NHC track is good. PEACE!"
LOL...true.

Or....

"""the NHC is going to have to come further west on their 5 day track"""
590. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


"look at the RGB Infrared Loop. what do you see?"
LOL!
593. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


"??????????????????"
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Atlantic Hurricane Season (wow... another anachronism AHS!) starts in a couple weeks. Just curious- what was the earliest storm to develop into a hurricane and make landfall in the US?
595. IKE
Hurry up ATL hurricane season and start. You are missed on here.
Poof!
Quoting DestinJeff:
ok i will stop now. i told myself i wouldn't, so I am going to hold my feet to the fire.


please leave your feet out of this...
Regarding post 401, does anyone recall this?

30 mins before the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKMTSDzU1Z4
Quoting HarryMc:
Atlantic Hurricane Season (wow... another anachronism AHS!) starts in a couple weeks. Just curious- what was the earliest storm to develop into a hurricane and make landfall in the US?


As a hurricane, then Alma of 1966 in early June is a good bet. There was a hurricane in 1908 which brushed North Carolina in late May.

Probably been earlier storms which were a hurricane at some point, but only hit as a tropical storm.
Quoting Cotillion:


As a hurricane, then Alma of 1966 in early June is a good bet. There was a hurricane in 1908 which brushed North Carolina in late May.

Probably been earlier storms which were a hurricane at some point, but only hit as a tropical storm.


Looks like you are right about Alma. Took at quick look at the NOAA site, gives "early hurricane" a definition of one occurring in the three months around the start of season so Alma June 9 would probably fit. Good call. Thanks.
Quoting IKE:
Hurry up ATL hurricane season and start. You are missed on here.


We all get hyped up for the June 1st day and the start of the season. Yet many years nothing happens in June and depression sets in on the blog.
Quoting Cotillion:


As a hurricane, then Alma of 1966 in early June is a good bet. There was a hurricane in 1908 which brushed North Carolina in late May.

Probably been earlier storms which were a hurricane at some point, but only hit as a tropical storm.


Please take note: this post specifies North Carolina...Well done!!!
Enforcement agents from the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries responding to flooding in Louisiana captured images of wildlife fleeing water that has displaced them from their habitats

Link
604. Jax82
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....yawn~




Oh wow, 0.01 forecasted the next 5 days for me!! Wait, i'm right on the border of light green and white, so I wont hold my breathe ;-)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


We all get hyped up for the June 1st day and the start of the season. Yet many years nothing happens in June and depression sets in on the blog.


That's another kind of tropical depression.
608. Jax82
Quoting clwstmchasr:


We all get hyped up for the June 1st day and the start of the season. Yet many years nothing happens in June and depression sets in on the blog.


"seasons a bust" if no named storm after June 2nd. This year i've heard "good chance at pre-season mischief!!!". "Have you seen the caribbean on the GFS at day 9, wow!!!!". "Dang look at those SST's in the Gulf, they are boiling hot already!!!". Me personally, cannot wait for "look its pumping the ridge!" LOL.
Complete Update





Quoting RitaEvac:


Completely insane having over 80% of the state in D3, and almost half in D4.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Good morning....

Irony: flood conditions in a area of drought.

Just an observation this morning.
Quoting jeffs713:
Completely insane having over 80% of the state in D3, and almost half in D4.


Yea, pathetic, I don't know what were gonna do.
Even Ike is getting in on the action
im just wondering when the air in the carib is going to start "piling up",I cant wait until june 1st,lol
Good morning! Got the sense it was that time of year to jump on the blog again. Really interesting to read what Dr. Masters wrote about the experimental forecasting being done.
It's been raining and raining and raining ever since Saturday around these parts.The river is awfully high right about now.And becuase of that my son's field trip had to be cancelled.Anyway like I've always said.If 2011 is more destructive than 2010 no one will care if 2010 was more active.Personally I wouldn't.But that's just me.....Oh and by th way watch out for those pesky nutreal years.They almost always turn out bad for the united states.
Quoting DestinJeff:
ooh, ooh, ooh ...

I can't wait for next week! It will be so interesting.

Hey.What'll be happening.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's been raining and raining and raining ever since Saturday around these parts.The river is awfully high right about now.And becuase of that my son's field trip had to be cancelled.Anyway like I've always said.If 2011 is more destructive than 2010 no one will care if 2010 was more active.Personally I wouldn't.But that's just me.....Oh and by th way watch out for those pesky nutreal years.They almost always turn out bad for the united states.



Living in FL, neutral years always leave me a little more concerned. Neutral years, on average, produce the most landfalls for our state due to the AB high being positioned farther west. This typically will set the mean trough position right up through the Great Lakes region. Not sure about other areas in the deep south but logic would tell you the chances are equally increased.
The water temps in the Gulf Region and those off the FL east coast are adding to my concern as they are cooking already.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
The water temps in the Gulf Region and those off the FL east coast are adding to my concern as they are cooking already.

Any loop current eddy yet?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Living in FL, neutral years always leave me a little more concerned. Neutral years, on average, produce the most landfalls for our state due to the AB high being positioned farther west. This typically will set the mean trough position right up through the Great Lakes region. Not sure about other areas in the deep south but logic would tell you the chances are equally increased.
In the most recent nutreal years the Gulf has been under attack.2005,and 2008 are exsamples.And yes the waters off of Florida are really cooking.I hope no storm pulls a Charley if one threatens the state that is.
Quoting muddertracker:

Any loop current eddy yet?


I don't think so but, do you really need one with those temps, lol.
626. P451
Quoting Cotillion:


As a hurricane, then Alma of 1966 in early June is a good bet. There was a hurricane in 1908 which brushed North Carolina in late May.

Probably been earlier storms which were a hurricane at some point, but only hit as a tropical storm.


Wow haven't seen you around. Was wondering when our NW Europe weather data link was going to start posting again.

Note the mean origin of FL land falling hurricanes during neutral years.


Going by the books it looks like FL, AL, MS & LA will be under the gun this year.


Speaking of the USA obviously, no disrespect to our friends to the south.
..only 3 shopping day's left till the apocalypse.


4 till the Fla. Rainy Season start
630. P451
Quoting IKE:

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Laughing pretty good out here. I will say I enjoyed the analysis as they were filled with a lot of information.

The attitude and ever increasing desire to attack everyone who disagreed over the ever increasing recycled responses became a turn off.

The minions of the justice of who shall not be named was quite comical. Groupies? Never in my life would I ever expect to see I-Net groupies.

It is what it is and we can joke about it any time we want. Although I am quite sure if I re-post a certain GIF image of mine I won't be able to chat with you all for a day or so.

Pretty busy these days so maybe it won't matter and I won't notice.

Aw hell with it. It's coming.

631. P451


See ya all in a few days LOL
Quoting presslord:


Please take note: this post specifies North Carolina...Well done!!!


Oh, you know that I'm aware of such things, Press :)

Quoting P451:


Wow haven't seen you around. Was wondering when our NW Europe weather data link was going to start posting again.



Hey P451. Posted occasionally, but like a lot, come out of the woodwork as soon as summer rolls around (unless there's been a significant event somewhere in the winter over here, which there wasn't).

Main story for here is that is much drier than it should be. Farmers (some anyway, fruit farmers are enjoying the above average heat) beginning to get a little worried.

And love the graphic!
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh, you know that I'm aware of such things, Press :)



Hey P451. Posted occasionally, but like a lot, come out of the woodwork as soon as summer rolls around (unless there's been a significant event somewhere in the winter over here, which there wasn't).

Main story for here is that is much drier than it should be. Farmers (some anyway, fruit farmers are enjoying the above average heat) beginning to get a little worried.
Here you can take my rain.We're at a surplus right now.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


When I think of you Keep, the Pale Rider always comes to mind. :)
I think of Rick Moranis in Ghost Busters. :) "Are you the Key Master?"
635. Jax82
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Note the mean origin of FL land falling hurricanes during neutral years.




Great figure, interesting to see all the landfalls along the NE Gulf and Bahamas.
Quoting P451:


See ya all in a few days LOL


Enjoy your ban...but dangit...that was worth it!! LOL!! But seriously...I'm having a July 4th cookout in the Palm Beach area...anyone know what the 1104 hr run of the models looks like and how reliable they are? ;-)
it's not NUTREAL it's NEUTRAL!!!

omg what I great graphic...P451
Nutria?




Quoting blsealevel:
Enforcement agents from the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries responding to flooding in Louisiana captured images of wildlife fleeing water that has displaced them from their habitats

Link
I hope/expect they freed the deer that appeared to be caught in the barbed wire...

The pic of the possum walking...he just looks angry.
*Fraka, fraka humans and their flood diversions. I'm gonna find out who authorized this. I hate traveling in the daylight.*
Opossum
Quoting Jax82:


Great figure, interesting to see all the landfalls along the NE Gulf and Bahamas.


Yeah, it's pretty clear the Bahamas get plastered during a neutral phase. I am rather confident this will be a pretty status quo neutral event, assuming no big swing to El Nino. Unlike years past with quick and drastic ENSO swings this recent event has been fairly normal.
P451...nice. I needed a good laugh this morning; )


Brett Duke, The Times-Picayune

Tamar Taylor and her daughter, Willa Richards, 11, look through some of the wood that is piling up against an old pier along the Mississippi River in Kenner's Rivertown on Wednesday.


Rising Mississippi River pushing debris downstream
Published: Wednesday, May 18, 2011, 9:30 PM
Here's the 120 hour loop current eddy forecast from the Environmental Modeling Center at NWS - twin loop current eddies.

627. There look to be two primary origin areas... the Western Caribbean, and the Atlantic around the Windward and Leeward Islands.

Nothing special about that, since those are both common origins for all types of tropical cyclones.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I don't think so but, do you really need one with those temps, lol.


Link

Found this link on loop eddy history/real time/ historical info...cool.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Here's the 120 hour loop current eddy forecast from the Environmental Modeling Center at NWS - twin loop current eddies.


The eastern one isn't fully split off yet. It is of more concern, since it already has more heat content in it.
26 degree isotherm:

Quoting jeffs713:
627. There look to be two primary origin areas... the Western Caribbean, and the Atlantic around the Windward and Leeward Islands.

Nothing special about that, since those are both common origins for all types of tropical cyclones.




Sure but your missing one thing. The lack of Cape Verde storms.
Once again proving themselves to be masters of camouflage, the polar bear...
Quoting Hurrykane:




That Navy forecast is always way out of whack when compared to the product at EMC. I have no idea why, but I always focus on the EMC NWS forecast. Can anyone clear up the confusion? Layer depth?
Flooding In Louisiana's Great Basin: A Good Thing?
by Greg Allen, National Public Radio
May 18, 2011



The Army Corps of Engineers opened another bay on the Morganza Spillway Wednesday — diverting more water off the Mississippi through the bayous and rivers of Louisiana's Atchafalaya Basin.

The corps says it will divert as much water as necessary to keep the Mississippi no higher than 45 feet as it passes through Baton Rouge.

But some of that water might actually be welcome.

'We Need Good Water'

Few people pay closer attention to water conditions in the Atchafalaya Basin than those who make their living catching crawfish.

Lee Wisdom and other craw fishermen in St. Martin Parish are launching their boats, not off the ramps, but from the levee. They can't get to the ramps. Water has already risen several feet on Bayou Benoit. And water from the Morganza Spillway hasn't even reached this area yet.

Mike Bienvenu, head of the Louisiana Crawfish Producers Association, says he's not sure whether the coming flood will improve the crawfish crop or not.

"We don't like high water. High water is not good. We need good water. All we need is three or four feet [of] water to crawfish in, that's all we need," he says.

Craw fishing has declined here in recent years. Bienvenu and others blame the web of canals and levees that oil and gas companies have put in the Atchafalaya Basin, keeping fresh water from some bayous.

When the high water hits this area in coming weeks, it will flush out stagnant ponds with fresh water full of oxygen and sediment. Harold Schoeffler, who has fished these waters his whole life, says that's bound to improve things in the basin.

As water washes up on levees and other formerly dry areas, he says long-dormant crawfish will come out of the mud and start breeding.

"So you get this phenomenal production," Schoeffler says. "And then shrimp. This is an estuary where shrimp from the Gulf come into this system and reproduce. So you have this phenomenal amount of nutrients and water that's going to cause an enormous growth of shrimp that feeds speckled trout and redfish and flounder. And the whole thing just takes off."

Short term, the high water is threatening a huge animal population including as many as 150 black bears, plus many deer and smaller mammals. Schoeffler, who is the longtime chairman of the Sierra Club in this part of Louisiana, says, for the most part, the animals should do fine. Water is rising slowly, and he says, even at the crest, there will be plenty of high ground in the basin.

"We have spoil banks up there 50, 55 feet above sea level," he says. "Many hills in the 35- to 45-foot range, which are really an island for wildlife."

A Natural Part Of The Basin Ecology

It might be surprising that, although 1.5 million cubic feet of water per second may soon be released into this basin, those living here are remarkably undisturbed. That's in part because flooding is a natural part of this area's ecology.

This flood event, the largest since 1973, will reshape the basin — filling in some swamps with sediment and turning them into hardwood forests.

For Louisiana's long-eroding coastal wetlands, though, this flooding is a good thing.

Ivor van Heerden, a marine scientist formerly with Louisiana State University, says the tons of sediment washing down the river will spur plant and animal life and help build new wetlands.

"In the central part of the coast, because of the Atchafalaya, we're going to definitely be creating new marshes. We're going to be rejuvenating a huge area of marsh, so a lot of benefits," he says.

Paul Kemp of the National Audubon Society agrees. Unfortunately, he says, the place where new sediment and new marshes are needed most desperately — below New Orleans at the mouth of the Mississippi — won't be helped by the flood. Because of efforts to keep the Mississippi wide open for navigation, any sediment flowing down the river is likely to be dredged and dumped, not in coastal areas, but off the Continental Shelf.

"And I would have loved to say, 'This was the event we were waiting for. We were prepared and we were able to do 50 years of restoration in one year.' I can't say that today," Kemp says.

Kemp, van Heerden and others active in coastal restoration, hope this event will persuade the Army Corps of Engineers and other public agencies to take steps allowing not just the Atchafalaya but also the Mississippi to actually benefit from the flood. Copyright 2011 National Public Radio. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
Broadcast Dates

* All Things Considered, May 18, 2011
That polar bear looks pretty happy. Maybe the ice caps melting isn't such a bad thing after all. I mean, would you want to live in snow 24/7?
Quoting Patrap:
WAVCIS from ESL Loop Current GOM surface current 120 hr Model


That's what the EMC is showing (is WAVCIS showing the EMC model?) Again, no idea why the Navy product is so different, but it always is.

WTO
In the category of "totally awesome unexpected links", I present to you this gem:

Official CDC Zombie Preparedness Kit
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
That polar bear looks pretty happy. Maybe the ice caps melting isn't such a bad thing after all. I mean, would you want to live in snow 24/7?
If it means more precip than what TX has received the past 3 months, I'd consider it...
657. jeffs713 10:51 AM EDT on May 19, 2011
In the category of "totally awesome unexpected links", I present to you this gem:

Official CDC Zombie Preparedness Kit


I have been waiting my whole life for this. God bless you. You get a trucker cap AND a key chain.
WAVCIS uses the HYCOM system I believe.

what if the polar bear has allergies?
Quoting presslord:


Please take note: this post specifies North Carolina...Well done!!!
He's from the UK, doesn't know the proper American vernacular.. "The Carolinas" is how it is pronounced Cotillion
aquak9, I think they make Claritin-P.

Quoting aspectre:
Once again proving themselves to be masters of camouflage, the polar bear...
Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear? Or not confused? If he were showing teeth they would assume he was happy?

If it truly was odd, maybe his behavior had everything to do with a reporter being present...
or maybe he's an all-masculine polar bear and he's like, "geez, I hope the ladies don't see me all frolicing around in the flowers"

peggy- good one :)
Patrap,here is my hurricane kit,as where I am,it has been used many times,and I think many more in the future. I agree with you that numbers dont mean anything,only where those storms that form will go.

Link
Quoting Rainman32:
He's from the UK, doesn't know the proper American vernacular.. "The Carolinas" is how it is pronounced Cotillion


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
Or, maybe HE is really a SHE.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Or, maybe HE is really a SHE.


Yeeea-eeehhzzz
Did the loop current eddy play a role in 2005 and 2008?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Patrap,here is my hurricane kit,as where I am,it has been used many times,and I think many more in the future. I agree with you that numbers dont mean anything,only where those storms that form will go.

Link


Well im not a Phd nor a Tropical met in any form so the Predictive stuff is cool and all, but its more Chest thumping between agencies and university folks to me.


We can make a real important impact by sharing our collective experiences for the greater good.

That's what makes this site so special,the sharing among the collective members with the greater world.
Maybe seals like frolicking in fields of flowers too.
NOAA Outlook...live
Link
bluheel, you could be right. A definite improvement over being eaten by polar bears in the frozen ocean.
Quoting Patrap:


Well im not a Phd nor a Tropical met in any form so the Predictive stuff is cool and all, but its more Chest thumping between agencies and university folks to me.


We can make a real important impact by sharing our collective experiences for the greater good.

That's what makes this site so special,the sharing among the collective members with the greater world.


Sounds like you running for office? LOL You got my vote.
12-18 storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major.
Politician,,?

Id rather be Dutch,..LoL
682. Jax82


Full NOAA report

Link
666 atmoaggie "Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear?"

3-6 majors??
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I saw that Grother posted the link to the initial release,but I want to you have the link to the graphics and extended detailed report?
Looks like Cajun Polar Bears,definitely.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear? Or not confused? If he were showing teeth they would assume he was happy?

If it truly was odd, maybe his behavior had everything to do with a reporter being present...
Have you ever owned a pet???

It's quite ridiculously easy to tell when an animal is happy or sad or in distress.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I saw that Grother posted the link to the initial release,but I want to you have the link to the graphics and extended detailed report?


Link
Do Cajun Polar Bears hunt gators? Now THAT is a show I would watch!
Forget Liz. Troy needs to pair up with a Cajun polar bear.
Can someone tell me why the EPAC season starts May 15 yet CPAC and ATL start June 1?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Have you ever owned a pet???

It's quite ridiculously easy to tell when an animal is happy or sad or in distress.


Nola Roux say's, "+ 100" for TomTaylor



No
Quoting aspectre:
666 atmoaggie "Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear?"

Quoting aspectre:
666 atmoaggie "Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear?"

now that is funny!
There's that "EPAC" again. Where is Grandpa Simpson. I KNOW that is what he yelled in the movie.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone tell me why the EPAC season starts May 15 yet CPAC and ATL start June 1?


Climatology and SST's and the Colombian Low me tinks,,but the Atlantic has been easing into that same starting Date easily the last 10 years,,as the May Invests are more and more a common occurrence,so say the Big Dogs in the field.

Maybe Dr.Jeff Masters can chime in on that one Aussie
Dang! Knew I shouldnt post with my phone.
PrivateIdaho, that is still one of the best avatars on here.
..Only 3 shopping day's left till the Apocalypse!!
Quoting aspectre:
666 atmoaggie "Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear?"



These could actually be Jamaican bears... just change the snow to sand and voila!!!! They're listening to reggae music and behind the bbq pit (you can't see the cooler) are red stripe beer...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Have you ever owned a pet???

It's quite ridiculously easy to tell when an animal is happy or sad or in distress.
Of course. When they are used to being around people and you have been around that particular animal enough to recognize moods, that is easy.

I don't think either of those apply well to polar bears in the wild. They don't pur, smile, wag tails...
If you see a polar bear smiling at you, go ahead, see if he licks your face or rolls over for a belly rub once you start petting him.
golb wen
Quoting P451:


See ya all in a few days LOL
i posted that once only once maybe ya get lucky and it will slide on by
Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course. When they are used to being around people and you have been around that particular animal enough to recognize moods, that is easy.

I don't think either of those apply well to polar bears in the wild. They don't pur, smile, wag tails...
If you see a polar bear smiling at you, go ahead, see if he licks your face or rolls over for a belly rub once you start petting him.
i remember once when i was a boy with my grandfather them greenpeace fellas trying to save the seals did that that little pup grab his arm and was shaken the hell out of him then the momma came up the blow hole and started chasin em then someone yelled quick shoot and i heard someone say who the seal or the greenpeace fella in the end we got the seal and well that greenpeace fella we didn't see him anymore after that either and he did not dispute the fate of the seal either funny how one changes there mind when they become the victim
so go ahead pet the polar bear good luck with that
Guys we are only 2 days away now, the suspense is in the air!
Link

I know its foxnews, blah, blah, blah. Its a funny article though.
I doubt anyone on this blog is genuinely concerned about the predicted doomsday this Saturday. But I'm providing this info anyway for your edu-tainment.

Here are the predicted doomsdays just for 2011:

Date ---------------- Source
April 6, 2011 -------- Marilyn Agee
May 21, 2011 -------- Electronic Bible Fellowship
May 29, 2011 -------- Marilyn Agee
October 21, 2011 ------ Electronic Bible Fellowship(among others)


There have been multiple predicted doomsdays every year since at least the 1990s. From the 1970s through the 90s there was at least one doomsday prediction nearly every year. As you look back in time before the 1970s the predictions are less and less frequent, but there are doomsday predictions dating all the way back to the time when Jesus was alive (and probably many before that).

Here's a great source for info about doomsday predictions:

From the Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
This study is a stellar read for those interested. It really opens the eyes and goes into great detail.


There appears to be a significant decrease in hurricane landfalls during the neutral phase along the East Coast whereas compared to Florida. This would suggest that there is a dominant flow pattern during neutral years that tends to steer hurricanes toward Florida.


The only problem with this is that it focuses only on hurricanes, not tropical storms.
Evening, folks.


There's always something good about something bad that happens; sometimes it just takes a while to figure that out.