WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Probe recommends Proenza's permanent removal; Atlantic and Hawaiian tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on July 20, 2007

At a Congressional hearing yesterday, results of the independent probe sent by NOAA to investigate management problems at the National Hurricane Center were presented by Dr. Jim Turner. Dr. Turner is deputy director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and was leader of the independent team of five people sent to NHC on July 2. Their report (Attachment 9) recommended the permanent removal of Bill Proenza as director of NHC (also called the Tropical Prediction Center, or TPC):

"The current TPC director should be reassigned and not be allowed to return to his position at the center. This should be done due to his failure to demonstrate leadership within the TPC rather than his public statements about the QuikSCAT satellite or NOAA leadership."

In his testimony, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Conrad Lautenbacher, presented some very damaging evidence against Mr. Proenza. Lautenbacher's written testimony includes a letter (Attachment 2) providing a detailed description of a conference call requested by 11 NHC employees (including 7 of 9 of the hurricane forecasters), with the acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin. If you want to better understand the NHC controversy, read Attachment 2 describing what was said during the June 19 meeting.

I'll make one more post this afternoon analyzing the science of what was presented at the Congressional hearing. Then, it's time to let this issue fade until the next Congressional hearing on the issue, tentatively planned for December or January. The tropics are starting to heat up, and it's time to focus on the coming hurricane season.

Tropical wave near Puerto Rico
A tropical wave near Puerto Rico is spreading clouds and thunderstorms over a wide area of the Eastern Caribbean, northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and surrounding waters. This wave is under about 20-30 knots of wind shear, thanks to the presence of an upper-level low pressure system to its northwest (Figure 1). This upper low is expected to stay in place an continue to bring hostile wind shear to the area the next few days. I don't expect the shear will allow anything to develop from this tropical wave.


Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the tropical wave near Puerto Rico, and the upper level low with dry air (dark colors) to its northwest. This upper level low sucking in moist air from the tropical wave, and is bringing hostile wind shear of 20-30 knots over it.

We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. Most of the models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system along the tail end of this front by Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm--or possibly a subtropical storm--due to the presence of high wind shear. NHC has put a Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to investigate the region on Sunday afternoon, if necessary. Even if the low is extratropical, it may be able to suck up plenty of tropical moisture and douse the mid-Atlantic coast and/or New England with heavy rains as early as Monday.

Cosme to skirt Hawaii
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands can relax a bit now, as it appears that Tropical Depression Cosme, will pass well south of the Big Island on Saturday. The edges of the outermost spiral bands will probably bring rains of 1-3 inches to the east side of the Big Island. Wind shear has fallen to 5-10 knots, and ocean temperatures are beginning to warm to 80F under the storm, and I expect Cosme will regain minimal tropical storm strength by Saturday. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has remained about constant so far today.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doctor.
The focus should be on the Public interest.To be sure..things in the ATlantic are getting ready to demand it



there is a 1009mb low with it

aron said Please dont do the 1 2nd or 3dr thing on this blog it dos not mean any thing
Thanks, for the update.
I think we need to watch the area around 47W/12.5N. There is a 1011mb low and has still some spin with it. Just in the last few frames there is convection building around the center. What do you guys think of that?
The GFS develops that wave futher of Africa, we'll see.
"I'll make one more post this afternoon analyzing the science of what was presented at the Congressional hearing. Then, it's time to let this issue fade until the next Congressional hearing on the issue, tentatively planned for December or January. The tropics are starting to heat up, and it's time to focus on the coming hurricane season.".....

Agree...Dr. Masters...that's the 2nd time you've said...coming hurricane season. What is your start day? LOL....August 1st?
Yep. I am glad a new blog was posted. If I had to scroll through anymore insurance crap, I was liable to scream!
Proenza gone...and good riddance!
the SAL is pretty strong around the cape verdes Taz but that wave may be able to squeak right under it..
Posted By: nash28 at 2:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Yep. I am glad a new blog was posted. If I had to scroll through anymore insurance crap, I was liable to scream!



lmao..."liable" to scream! That's a good one, Nash.
I am glad you caught that Moonlight....

I was wondering if anyone would:-)
Nash what do you think about 47W/12.5N?
16. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 9:23 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Yep. I am glad a new blog was posted. If I had to scroll through anymore insurance crap, I was liable to scream!


Insurance rates are directly related to hurricanes, which....uh...just forget it.
I understand that Ike. Everyone does. But, how long can you beat a dead horse before everyone is sick of yackalating about it?

Good thing...the shear came back just in time.
That blob was blowing up fast.
TGIF bloggers <---------------FREE "Head On" for all!!! (should be...lol).
Not real impressed with that wave Papa.
Jp, apparently, he wasn't a good choice for leading the team at the NHC. Volatility is not an effective method of leadership.


And, I'm not sure "anything" has been done yet to improve the tools for the NHC, except have some gov't hearings! Right now, all he has caused is a waste of taxpayer dollars and create a lack of esteem at the NHC and a leery and weary public on the issue.

We'll have to see if they get new tools as a result. I doubt it. At least not from this. There's already the new GOES and else. Proenza didn't have anything to do with those "non-volatile" improvements.

jmho
OK I have a partial domain name and should have a domain shortly but please visit this site

http://wxweather.page.tl/

and to link to an individual page please right click and select show this frame only
also visiting through that link will help me get a domain name for free
Jp, agreed! But, ANY director at NHC should always be lobbying for needed funds. At least he did part of his job right then.

Personally, I think he was a poor choice. And, apparently, the director's job there was a demotion for him. Someone was looking for somewhere to put this guy. Probably should go home now and write a book.

Not a good fit for the NHC's head job!
ANd then theres the Glacken connection..Hmmmm.what was her role before her new one,at NOAA?
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
QuikSCAT: Reprimand Bush, Not Hurricane Center Director

The acting director of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has reprimanded the director of the National Hurricane Center for telling the truth about the QuikSCAT satellite, which for years has provided the most reliable wind-speed measurements to predict where hurricanes will land: QuikSCAT has been on its last legs for months, it might fail at any moment, and NOAA has nothing in the works to replace it, this hurricane season or next.

In todays print edition The Houston Chronicle notes that an administration that brought us FEMAs disastrous response to Hurricane Katrinaand, I would add, broke every promise to New Orleans sincehas no business letting another incompetent bureaucrat drive NOAA to less effective hurricane readiness.

If anyone needs reprimanding, it acting NOAA Director Mary Glackenand the president who appointed her.

Straight shooter: Rather than reprimand outspoken Hurricane Center chief, superiors should heed his warnings.

Since assuming the highly visible directorship of the National Hurricane Center in Miami in January, Bill Proenza has been telling it like it is, much to the chagrin of his superiors at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Proenza, a four-decade weather service veteran, criticized NOAA for planning a multimillion-dollar public relations campaign and anniversary party while slashing $700,000 from the Hurricane Center's budget for improving storm forecasting technology. He questioned the decision to "rebrand" information coming out of the Hurricane Center as coming from NOAA, the parent agency.

Proenza has spoken out about the tenuous state of the aged QuikSCAT satellite that provides a data stream measuring wind speeds in developing cyclones. He also opposed plans to cut the flight time of hurricane hunter craft to 354 hours this year, less than half the time used during the record-setting 2005 Atlantic storm season.

For his efforts, acting NOAA Director Mary Glackin paid Proenza a visit last week and delivered a three-page letter of reprimand accusing him of issuing confusing statements that cast doubt about the agency's ability to accurately forecast storms. Unfazed, Proenza circulated the letter to his staff, telling reporters he would not be muzzled by agency bureaucrats.

Proenza says Glackin is not the first federal official to try to silence him. Earlier this spring another weather service staffer, Louis Uccellini, warned him that his statements about QuikSCAT were angering officials in the White House, the Commerce Department and NOAA. The director says he will not be silent on issues critical to saving lives and increasing the accuracy of his agency's forecasts.

Lawmakers in Florida on the county, state and federal level have rallied behind Proenza. U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and several members of the state's congressional delegation warned against any attempt to replace the director. In a letter to Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, whose department oversees NOAA, Nelson stated, "Clearly there are parties within NOAA who don't appreciate having their shortcomings identified to the public and Congress. However, shooting the messenger is not an acceptable response."

Two years ago the nation saw a previously well-functioning Federal Emergency Management Agency fail to provide vital services during Hurricane Katrina because unqualified political cronies had been put in charge.

The National Hurricane Center has served the nation well, tracking and forecasting storms while minimizing loss of life. It would be a tragedy if Washington bureaucrats more interested in anniversary parties than in maintaining weather satellites usurped the center's independence.

Posted by Gerald T Floyd
Jp, it's a free country last time I checked. I can bash who I want, when I want, for whatever reason I choose. Not getting in a pissing match with you, hell, I like you.

I'm just saying that a good "team" has to have a good leader. Players respect and follow a good leader. Apparently, he missed by a mile!
QuikSCAT: Reprimand Bush, Not Hurricane Center Director

LOL Patrap where did you get that article?
cosme just keeps going and going look at this

this

then click 2007 archive and you will see that cosme is like a cape verde hurricane just in the pacific ocean looks like it is going to make it into the WPac its 3rd basin
More info from Yesterday here..second story down.Highly recomended Link.
Must've been a couple of miles then!
Here WPB the story..Link
41. CJ5
I still do not see anything significant in the testimony. I read alot of Bill was like this or Bill was like that but I do not see any specifics. Waahahahhaha...I can't concentrate on analyzing this storm because there is disruption in the room. Give me a break!

It is obvious the Bill may have not been the right choice but there seems to be to many chiefs and not enough indians at the NHC.
Wow that wave really died out. I thought it was looking really good last night and that it might be a cane!
EUMETSAT Link
MLC usually has the EUMSTAT link...
Its needs to sustain itself to get my interest. These thing look good when they are on/near Africa and then die out in a few hours. We will see what happens.
Unfortunately in Florida I believe property taxes are also tied to hurricanes. If the government run property insurer can't pay its claims, guess who has to? The taxpayers of Florida.
Look at the 24 hour loop, it seems to start blooming once it hits water........
Thanks, StormW. I do like the EUMETSAT link for viewing dust and catching the storms coming off the African coast.

Jp, much respect, man!

...gotta run, meeting to go to...bbl.

Have a GR8 TGIF, everyone!!!
Good morning Storm!!
Posted By: StormW at 3:26 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Morning Drak, jp, WPB, and all!

Morning!
Still not impressing me...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
just took a look and all 4 models CMC,GFS,NGP and UKM all show a spin up from the wave at 54 hrs. Grantyed it shows on the 850mb vort models not the SLP ones but gets you thinking. Also the same models show spin up from the frontal system about to pass off the coast this saturday
Where does it show the wave coming up Bonedog? Where is it headed? Of course things will start heating up as soon as I go out of town. My wife is scared!
"Dr. Turner is deputy director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology"

LOL. Big difference between NTIS (yesterday's blog) and NIST. Simple typo, but thank you for clearing up the confusion.
i don't think whatever develops out of that wave north of P.R. will be significant.
okk guys good morning. The disturbance in the carribean is dying the ull will see to that and i am dropping my dvelopment chances to 5% or less. Beven i think is a bit off on this one.
StormW...great blog, good to hear your take on things and how each forecasting component ties into your view...I've learned more terminology from reading it in the week I've been here than I could in a year of schooling
Posted By: RL3AO at 11:07 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
The NHC TWO Alert Scale

GREEN: AREA OF CLOUDS BLAH BLAH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED

BLUE: AREA OF CLOUDS BLAH BLAH DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR

YELLOW: AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED

ORANGE: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

RED: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TODAY OR TOMMORROW


looks like we are between Blue and Yellow
I want to see what the 12z runs do with this.
It shows on the 850mb Vort models to head due north with a slight retrograde into the Gulf Of MAINE. I dont think it will be tropical probably extratropical. It did not show on sea level pressure maps except for a circular line around 1000mb. Looks like a rain and gust wind event if anything
now this is interesting

guess the blog is dead today..
the wave off of Africa, is that yesterdays or did a new one come off now?
Posted By: benirica at 3:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

the wave off of Africa, is that yesterdays or did a new one come off now?


I think thats yesterdays... hasn't really moved much.
Afternoon Everyone...
hello ryang...
drak: i think when the discussion got political...people ran for the hills
New Africa wave... SAL might hinder development though...
Hey Drak...
The GFS has a 1009mb low with it currently. It is somewhat believable considering the pressure around the Africa coast is 1010mb(falling) also there is a SSW/WSW wind. (my thoughts...)
The GFS develop's it around 40W... Moving W-WNW...
Taz when you are posting images the width should be 640... otheriwse it streches out the blog.
87. eye
well, looks like if that blob develops it will head N and into Fishland.

Guess which model correctly predicted the wave would split into?
try this

lol
much better Taz.
90. eye
if that wave coming off africa goes too slow, it will die in the cooler than normal waters off Africa. It really does look like it is barily moving.
that sucker really is barely moving... it looks like in a day and a half it still hasnt come off of Africa yet...
Bush to have colonoscopy tomorrow,Breaking News..
LOL. i think its the influence of 2 waves, when i look at the loop. most waves don't sit around Africa that long.
Yea your right JP. Still the wave has a long way to go...
has it been reported anywhere how fast its moving?
if it is the system the GFS somewhat develops, well even on that model it seems that it will contine to go sloooooooowly to the W or WNW
Posted By: Patrap at 2:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
QuikSCAT: Reprimand Bush, Not Hurricane Center Director
[...]


Thank you for that article Patrap. It is good to hear the other side of the story.
shoot...i lost my link to the LSU (i think that was it) model page (the page with the grey background and links to most major models)...anyone have it?
This map only shows 26 degree Celsius and above SST.


Link
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 20 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 33N AND 66W FOR 22/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

models http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ jo
ok... my daily "whats the the Puerto Rican Met. saying"
the ULL won the battle against the Tropical Wave and it isnt defined anymore. the system did try to form circulations and they were clearly visible on the long range radar loops from PR, but the odds were against it and now its gone.
It could be back, but it is highly unlikely for now.
Africa wave- good circulation and it has convection around it, but it has to be over the water another day or so to be taken seriously. but either way, it is relatively the one to watch now
Taz they are probably gonna cancel that flight... untill this system looks better
Why do they have to schedule it on Sunday? Thats when I go on vacation. Figures.
may be
Local met says it has good circulation... interesting..
bouy 13001 has sea temp at 80.4 winds NW at 8mph

link tot he FSU forcast model page

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
why has the nhc not put 97L up on the navy site?
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Why do they have to schedule it on Sunday? Thats when I go on vacation. Figures.


Thats when they expect conditions to be more favorable for development...
whats interesting??? where???
thanks for the link to the model page...forgot it was FSU
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

whats interesting??? where???


The wave of Africa lol.
is that circulation to the sfc?
The UL is shearing the wave near Puerto Rico pretty badly now, but it wouldn't have to move much to the West relative to the wave to still be producing diffluent flow over the wave, while also inducing a short wave anti-cyclone.
not a problem

what 97L?? Nothing out there to be an invest yet. I actually think they will fly into something first this time around before giving any (including invest) status.

Dont forget also Dr.M said they will have a flight on standby to also investigate the Cut Off Low this weekend. They might to a two-fer hit the one off the coast and fly onto the wave. Basically will be within range by Sunday.
lol she made it clear that it was really the only thing to look at for the moment (Puerto Rico speaking), she made a quick mention of maybe something comming by the Carolina coast.
Bonedog they don't need to fly into a system to give it invest Status.
Cheney will be in Charge during the procedure...
Thats comforting...
I know that Drakoen I am just saying that this time around it might happen.

Hopefully the wave of Africa will pick up some speed so that we can get 30 min updates on it.
was there another earthquake? the first one happened at 4:22 am which was a litt bit more than an hour agao:)
SAN FRANCISCO - An earthquake jolted San Francisco Bay area residents awake early Friday, breaking glass and rattling nerves, although there were no immediate reports of injuries.



The earthquake was recorded about 2 miles east of Oakland and had a preliminary magnitude of 4.2, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It could be felt for up to 10 seconds on both sides of the San Francisco Bay after striking shortly after 4:40 a.m.

More than 1,000 customers in the Oakland area lost power, a Pacific Gas & Electric Co. spokesman said. Crews were investigating the outages.

A dispatcher at the Oakland Police Department said police were getting calls about alarms going off. In Berkeley, an employee at a Safeway grocery store said two large windows broke but there were no injuries.
also NO POLTICIS PLEASE!
the quake in SF was at 4:42:22AM 4.2 at a depth of 3.6miles. Ground shock for 53 seconds.


Link
thank you Taz, glad to see there wasn't another one.
Oh no, Cheney is going to nuke something.
I would explain what is happening right now in the tropics but I dont have alot of time. You can check out my blog that I just updated. See ya all later.
The Global Africa NRL view...Link
good thing WU made it ok
: StormW evere thing is ok
The Mosaic Atlantic and Globe Stitched..Link
4.2 are just a little rockers. Will wake you up, but dont cause much damage.
DRAK:
the recon on that possible invest isnt for the caribbean system that is dieing - it is for the possible invest they expect to come of the east coast...... i believe
it is set for sunday as of now
Posted By: DaytonaBeachWatcher at 4:55 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

DRAK:
the recon on that possible invest isnt for the caribbean system that is dieing - it is for the possible invest they expect to come of the east coast...... i believe


Look at the cooridinates...of the RECON flight.
Just have to watch for another quake stronger this time to south of SF. According to the moment tension sensors it shifted the plate to the north but put stress to the 2 adjacent faults to the south.
California is overdue for a large quake.
wow, mainland africa has filled in the train since yesterday at this time
FROM DR. MASTERS BLOG:

We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. Most of the models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system along the tail end of this front by Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm--or possibly a subtropical storm--due to the presence of high wind shear. NHC has put a Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to investigate the region on Sunday afternoon, if necessary. Even if the low is extratropical, it may be able to suck up plenty of tropical moisture and douse the mid-Atlantic coast and/or New England with heavy rains as early as Monday.
Don't shoot the messenger:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 20 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 33N AND 66W FOR 22/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
Drakoen -What does that mean
Thats in between the wave and the cold front.
Those are the coordinates for where the RECON will be.
somewhere in the black area i put
Afternoon all

Drak, where recon may go ☺ big may right now.

How could anything end up between those 2 giant ULLs?
Just curious-the upper low seems pretty strong and is wrapping in moisture to its east-looks like 180 degrees worth-now a frontal boundary approaches from the west with ample moisture--does this wrap in from the west? Can this mix then transform to the surface or does it weaken or elongate the upper low?
well like i posted above, Dr. M. seems to think that is what the invest is on... per his blog.. maybe not. I dont think NHC would post a possible invest for 3 days away on a tropical wave that is dieing but again i could be wrong. we will just have to wait and see
Not shooting the messenger at all .... just posing another prospective.
Drak, I think your black area is about 3 degrees too far east.

What happens to the ULL when it suddenly gets this much moisture?
those coordinates are also where the models are showing the Low to develope from the frontal system give or take a few degrees.

Maybe the Low will pull in the moisture from this northern disturbance and basically jump start it
Posted By: MelbourneTom at 5:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Drak, I think your black area is about 3 degrees too far east.

What happens to the ULL when it suddenly gets this much moisture?


All i did was generalize the area that they are going to investigate from the TCPOD.
Good afternoon...

Nothing to worry about this afternoon as the waters close to home are pretty much dominated by ULL'S right now.The moisture of the wave near puerto rico has moved north but the wave axis has basically continued moving west in the caribbean and may run into a little better environment in the next couple of days.No signs of chantel for the time being so we'll see what next week brings.Adrian


I love the wide view especially using the water vapor loop. get to see the whole picture from africa to the gulf. sooooo nice. thank you nhc
drakeon on you picture you posted this may be a dumb question but on into africa are those other areas disturbances that will be coming off the coast like the one now??
The Mosaic Atlantic and Globe Stitched..Link
Nice link CaneWhisperer.

Posted By: MelbourneTom at 5:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
...
What happens to the ULL when it suddenly gets this much moisture?

At the upper levels it pulls the air down and dries it out. A lot of moisture would help weaken the ULL, but those ULLs look too vigorous to be filled in by the wave.
thanks for that link pat does the new africa wave have a shot to develope ?
There in control for now...

ull
173. CJ5
Posted By: Patrap at 4:46 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
I hope Cheney dont have the Codes. Id hate to see him shoot France in the Face..


That would be a blessing.
the wave near africa does have a shot, not a big one, but the road ahead of it is not the same road the other waves weve seen have had to cross...
those last waves have made this a nicer road and gives it just a touch of a better chance...
but there still is dry air to the west of it, so we'll see
STOP THE WITCH HUNT!!


MP- Oh my!! LOL!!
lol misterperfect.
sorry for the dumb and ignorant question, but ive been trying to ignore the political blabber on here for the past weeks and i guess now i cant ignore it and im curious...
what did Proenza do? and what is the big deal about now? and why is it so important?
179. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:43 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.
There in control for now...


They helped kill the 2006 Atlantic season...they killed the last wave before this one....and their doing a number on it right now.
the SAL is weakening. Is this a precursor of things to come for the remainder of the ALT hurricane season?



Link
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 20 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 33N AND 66W FOR 22/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Not sure for what cause there's nothing out there worth flying into but indeed its getting to that time of year were things can pop up.
yea Adrian thats what i am wondering. They do say however that conditions will become more favorable so we will see.
Recon is set to fly cause of the possibilty of some development of the carolina's.Not looking for a pure tropical system as upper levels winds will be fast.
what did Proenza do?

He angered his staff in more than one way.


and what is the big deal about now?

Someone always has to take the blame in Washington.


and why is it so important?

He was the director of the National Deadly-Damaging-Whirly-Windy-Thing-A-Ma-Bob Center which main job is to inform the people of danger.
i didn't think the coordinates suggested something of the Carolina coast...
186. MTJax
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W S
OF 18N. SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
HAVE BROKEN OFF TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO...AND IS POISED TO TRACK
NWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC SFC RIDGE. THIS PORTION IS
BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO. THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION IS TRACKING WWD 15-20 KT. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-75W.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE N
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW BEING
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N65W 19N68W. THIS...ALONG
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW NEAR 26N67W AND AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NNE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS
SUPPORTING THE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING NE
FROM PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ROTATING AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW N OF 28N
BETWEEN 61W-66W. LIGHTNING DATA AGAIN SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS IN
THE FAR WRN ATLC...MOSTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE SE US. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LOW IS
NEAR 27N50W...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN
49W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS WIDELY
DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH NEAR
38N42W. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TRADES E OF 45W. THE TRADES ARE LITTLE STRONGER WITHIN 400 NM OF
THE AFRICAN COAST N OF 20N...WHERE THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTER.
A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 47W...MOST CONCENTRATED E OF 30W.

$$
WILLIS
hmm..
right
Posted By: benirica at 5:59 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
what did Proenza do? and what is the big deal about now? and why is it so important?

benrica - I don't want to cause another political argument here...Dr. Masters' has covered one side of the story pretty well in his recent blogs.

The opposing view is that Proenza was set up to be eliminated from his former high-ranking position in NOAA because he was a "whistleblower" who criticized NOAA's complete negligence in timely building and launching a replacement for QuickSCAT, and also his criticism of NOAA for spending millions of dollars on an anniversary celebration while his forecasters dealt with budget shortfalls and $700,000 that was cut from a hurricane research project. In this view, his removal was "engineered" at top levels of NOAA and the Commerce Department, and was made to look like a "revolution" from below by lies told to NHC forecasters about funding trade-offs and threats to their careers.
190. MTJax
Monday off Alabama coast and off the Carolina coast

DAY 3 SFC PROGRAM
191. MTJax
...TROF CLOSING OFF OVER THE ERN US...
NAM IS FASTER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS WITH S/WV DROPPING THRU
THE ERN OH VALLEY LATE D1...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN A CLOSED MID
LEVEL CENTER FARTHER S OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY D3.
CONSEQUENTLY...NAM IS ALSO S OF GFS WITH SFC WAVE TAKING SHAPE OFF
THE MID ATL COAST LATE D2 INTO D3. BOTH THE HIGHLY RESOLVED 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GEM REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS LEND MORE SUPPORT TO THE
WAY THE NAM HANDLES THE S/WV OVER THE OH VALLEY D1 AND SUBSEQUENT
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY D3. GEM GLOBAL IS
SLIGHTLY N OF THE NAM...AND WITH THE LATEST UKMET ALSO FARTHER
N...WILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT NWD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STRONG NAM/ECWMF
CONSENSUS.

MODEL TRENDS...

...TROF CLOSING OFF OVER THE ERN US...
NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED WWD WITH THE MID LEVEL CENTER OF VORTEX
OVER THE MID ATL STATES D3.

$$
CISCO
MODEL BIASES AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
thanks guygee thats what i was looking for and now i see the real reason why this IS a big deal.
not just because he was the director of the National Deadly-Damaging-Whirly-Windy-Thing-A-Ma-Bob Center
look to the points: 74 deg. west and 16 deg. north. you will see that the tropical wave has separted from the disturbance and is continuing on into the caribean. this spot is in very favorable conditions for development and has weak wave related rotation and moderate convection. That is the area that could do something.



also look at the new sfc anylysis map it shows that the wave has broken Link
theres a third ULL in the west carib
what did Proenza do? and what is the big deal about now? and why is it so important?

NHC Director means exactly what it says. It does not give you the authority to criticize and micro-manage budget problems and fiscal spending. In other words, he tried to play Leap-Frog with too tall of a totem pole.
??? jp does the nhc really favor this thing THAT much??? that is RIDICULOUS. this thing is DEAD except for the wave now moving throguh the lower carib. the coordinates i put up represnt the tip edn of the second piece of the wave the on with the disturbance. how can they like it that much. it will not develop it is dead.
Great analysis, StormW. Really like your blog!

Posted by StormW:

Wind shear is now prevalent just NE of Hispaniola, and extends eastward a way, and then NEWD out into the Atlantic. (1)One will note on wind shear, that it is becoming more prevalent in cellular form, vice being associated with any TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof).

(2)Models agree in about 72-90 hours on more favorable upper level winds over the entire Caribbean and central Atlantic, but keep shear over the east coast of the U.S., and set it up as well over the GOMEX in about 96-120 hours.


Questions:
(1) means small pockets of shear?
(2) broke wave at 68w,15n may still be favorable for development?

TIA
he tried to play Leap-Frog with too tall of a totem pole

that is one heck of a visual
202. eye
jp, right here blogging about blobs
Here's one, Jp.

Link
Anyone surfing this blog running IE7? I'm getting javascript errors with each page reload...wondering if anyone else is.
yes i do run ie-7 and dont have a prob
thanks daytona...u dont have script error warnings turned off by any chance? do you see a little warning triangle at the bottom left of your status bar when the page finishes laoding? the error message I get indicates a missing object. i've noted a bunch of sites not quite perfectly supported on ie7 yet. i'm a web developer and have my options set to give me a warning for every js error.
where will we be if the QS dies tomorrow? answer me that!

Right where we were before we blasted it up to begin with. Its not like one satellite protects citizens from being blown away over night. We still send hurricane hunter aircraft into storms even WITH a satellite in orbit.
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 6:06 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Deadly-Damaging-Whirly-Windy-Thing-A-Ma-Bob


Can we just replace the word "hurricane" with this phrase in all future posts? =) I was giggling and my Co-worker was looking at me oddly
I agree jp. Admiral Lautenbacher, who demoted Proenza to Director of NHC without Proenza even requesting the position, more or less said at the hearings yesterday, "I hope QuickSCAT lasts through this hurricane season". Not an exact quote, but close enough.

He hopes...
210. MTJax
closer views
Specialized Tropical Surface Analysis - CAR
Specialized Tropical Surface Analysis - CAR


24 hour Wind/Wave Forecasts
24 hour Wind/Wave Forecasts
Sorry Miss Bennet not PC the other Bob's of the world might object.
214. MTJax
Being I am in graphical mode today, lets do a pre-season briefing on symbols for those who might have forgotten over the long winter.

Graphical Products Legend
Posted By: msphar at 6:48 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Sorry Miss Bennet not PC the other Bob's of the world might object.


We could call it a Thing-A-Ma-BLOB instead.. .it would be a little more fitting for this blog, and the Bobs of the world could breath a bit easier. =)

Thatcha think?
Actually jp,the gradual increase in track accuracy has been constant in the past 30 years,and did not accelerate with the advent of the QS.BBL.
look like the wave is still near the African coast.
Posted By: MTJax at 6:49 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Being I am in graphical mode today, lets do a pre-season briefing on symbols for those who might have forgotten over the long winter.


Thanks, and a question, please.

On the surface map, why are some lows posted in red, and some in black, and sometimes they change back and forth at the same location? TIA
YEah Adrian, its much easier to blame a computer and models when the going gets rough...
jp
i think that panties got in a twist because when Proenza said the forcast track would be 10 and 16% less accurate the forcasters took that to mean that he thinks that they cant make decent predictions without the QS which may or may not be the case since i have no idea how much they depend on it.
Posted By: TropicalMan07 at 6:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

tHAT WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE DIMINISHED... but by monday there sghould be favorable conditions mostly everywhere into next week.


Its because of the time of day.
I've asked the question before:

Would a more accurate satellite actually and ultimately lead to layoffs and downsizing in the atmosphereic agencies? I mean, we don't have thousands of people out there hunting for Near Earth Asteroids, only a handful. Perhaps Proenza's employess sensed a feeling of being replaced. If that is the truth, which will never be exposed anyway, then negligence of the people is the fault of the entire agency itself and not just one man. You just can't replace hundreds of weather experts with scabs like a factory union strike. Ah, but removing the director...that's easy.
By: TropicalMan07 at 7:04 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Im talking about the carribean wave...but if its because of the time o day then whats the reason for everyone saying the ULL is shearing it apart?


i was refering to the wave of Africa. Sorry. Yea the upper level low is tearing apart the wave in the Caribbean.
230. IKE
Drakoen is talking about the one off of Africa. The wave north of Puerto Rico is getting sheared to death. The other portion of the wave is moving west into the central, then western Caribbean.
Another thing that bothers me about Proenza, is that the QS problem didn't just arrive with him being named NHC director. The QS problem has been around for a while. Accordingly, it should have quit a few years ago, but apparently it's a tough bugger and hanging on.

So, QS was NOT new news. Proenza's been involved around weather all of his career. He knew previously of QS and could have been seeing, talking the hubbup way before he was named director. That is if he was so inclined to have good, "more-accurate", 10-16 percent better forecasts!

This is old news. Let's stop beating the dead horse. He's gone and good riddance.

I think it's SJ, on his blog, that has Einstein quoted...something like this:

"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them!"--Einstein

Proenza has been part of the "level" of thinking (or not thinking) that created the problem. He could have done more probably for QS, through lobbying, discussion...way before he became a "mouthpiece" at NHC.

...time now for new, progressive, forward thinking. And thankfully, Proenza is just part of the "past" now!
234. MTJax
Posted By: MTJax at 6:49 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Being I am in graphical mode today, lets do a pre-season briefing on symbols for those who might have forgotten over the long winter.

Thanks, and a question, please.

On the surface map, why are some lows posted in red, and some in black, and sometimes they change back and forth at the same location? TIA


Good question because the standard is:

High and low pressure centers are indicated by a large block H and L, respectively, together with a set of digits identifying the estimated value of the central pressure. On some charts, the H is colored blue, while the L is drawn in red.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~hopkins/aos100/sfc-anl.htm
all he wanted was the QS to be replaced and it is 3 years passed when it should have been replaced and is on its last legs, the information he used in his argument, came from NOAA themselves

Gee, wonder what agency has the luxury of doing that replacement job? Perhaps if the companies that were contracted to build a new satellite weren't burdened by Global WArming concerns and regulations maybe it would be cheaper and faster to correct the problem..
cosme expected to strengthen

Link
i think this year is going to be like 1977 if we dont start see some in soon
not that i want to see any thing out there but you no what i am trying to say
OK, unlikely, but the big mass of storms over Texas, from the interaction of an upper low and a weak tropical low that came inland near Tampico a few days ago, has hardly drifted anywhere at all. And it almost has the suggestion of some anticyclonic flow aloft.

Steering is obviously weak. Be interesting if that did what Allison in 2001 did, drift back toward the Gulf, mosey offshore, and then come back towards Louisiana.

Not that I'm saying that is going to happen.

247. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:22 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Taz its still early in the season, no need to declare anything dead yet


Another 2 weeks and that excuse can no longer be used.....

TAZ...I think they'll be more than 6 storms for the season.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:19 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
anyway im done, the QS will be fixed now, and im pretty sure that it wouldnt have been fixed if Bill hadnt of spoken up


Jp, the QS problem was not a "new" issue. Other measures have already been going on like the new Goes sat, etc. Sure, we all like QS and I'm sure the forecasters do, too. No one wants to see it fail, or be without the technology. It's being replaced by new thinking, new technology rest assured.

To say that it will be fixed due to Proenza's yelling and snorting around is short-sided. He's not that powerful rest assured. There are many more positive things going on by more people with more forward thinking and insight than Proenza. He's a dinosaur with dinosaur thinking and antique antics. He's gone. We should all get over it and move on.
Don't waste your breath jp. I've tried it before, and got the same response as you did.
ok
252. IKE
Posted By: Tazmanian at 2:19 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.
not that i want to see any thing out there but you no what i am trying to say


I will admit...so far the Atlantic season has been dull.
254. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:27 PM CDT on July 20, 2007.
once again I disagree IKE


Two weeks from today will be August 3rd...that's not early in the season anymore...that's approaching the heart of the season.
Take a look at this; sound familiar (and then look at the date). Also, here is a comment posted in that blog:

Good Morning y'all
That graphic looks like a Jackson Pollard painting
How can you tell when a tropical anything is forming with all those lines - very very interesting
I will stick to my prediction of 12 this year -
looks like all is quiet but I cant read inbetween those lines LOL


12? LOL LOL LOL... there were more than that many hurricanes alone...
256. IKE
look at 1999 Bret formed on August 19th and we had 12 named storms, every year is different, but saying even in 2 weeks more without a storm, doesnt mean the year is a bust

I didn't say that.
yes you are right Atlantic season has been dull
I feel that this has turned into my guilty pleasure. Long time lurker, however since the two LA hurricanes, I've seen devastation first hand and I feel a little guilty for coming to the site and seeing that there is nothing going on in the Atlantic? Does this make sense to anyone else?
And I think that way too many people still have "2005 disease"...

2004 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed: July 31, 2004
Last storm dissipated: December 2, 2004
Strongest storm: Ivan - 910 mbar (hPa) (26.88 inHg), 165 mph (270 km/h)
Total storms: 15
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 6
Total fatalities: 3,132+ (deadlier than 2005)
Total damage: $42 billion (2004 USD)
$44.9 billion (2006 USD)


Or:

2001 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed: June 4, 2001
Last storm dissipated: December 6, 2001
Strongest storm: Michelle - 933 mbar (hPa) (27.56 inHg),
Total storms: 15
Hurricanes: 9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 4
Total fatalities: 105
Total damage: $7.1 billion (2001 USD)
$8.1 billion (2006 USD)

Tropical Storm Barry (2001)
Barry formed from a tropical wave in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on August 2. Moving westward, it weakened to a tropical depression, and was expected to continue to the west-northwest. Instead, the ridge to Barry's north degraded, allowing the system to turn northward and restrengthen to tropical storm strength on the 5th. It peaked that night at 70 mph, but some southwesterly shear prevented the storm from reaching hurricane strength. Barry made landfall near Santa Rosa Beach, Florida on August 6 as a strong tropical storm with a developing eyewall, leading to the possibility of Barry being a hurricane. After making landfall, the remnants of Barry continued inland, and dissipated over Missouri on the 8th.

Tropical Storm Barry was responsible for two deaths in Florida, one due to a lightning strike. Another indirect death was also reported. Damage is estimated at $30 million. The tropical wave that eventually became Barry is blamed for capsizing a boat carrying Cuban refugees, and six of the passengers drowned.
1992- Andrew in August, how many storms? 6
Jp, there's no winning this debate with you. I'm through.

QS was already being replaced before Proenza came along. What do you think Goes is and other weather-related projects. Do you think the whole weather industry was sitting around with their thumb up their _ _ _ waiting for a Proenza to come along and save the day? Hardly.

The fact that he got some additional money into a budget, well, that's great. That's his job. Any director should be doing just that.

His antics were pathetic, trying to lead a team of scientific, weather professionals from a bully pulpit with a whip! Wrong man for the job, that simple!
Does Las Vegas or England (they bet on anything) taking bets on the number of TS. and hurricanes. 14 more seems like a long shot to me. That is alot. Thank god for Friday.
I say we will have 13-15 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes. That prediction includes Barry.
LOL I see the ULL I was talking about yesterday pretty much took care of the wave near PR!!
I got a question for you guys??
Where do these ULL'S keep popping up from? They did same thing last year. It was like a wave would flare & POOF a ULL to shear it to death. Also how is this ULL sitting right where I thought was the Bermuda High???
All I know is living in Fla. you gotta LOVE dem ULL'S lol
267. 900MB
Pressure starting to drop at Yucatan Buoy and some convection just reappearing.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 105 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.9 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.4 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 95.2 F
Despite the slow start so far, I'm still not planning any vacations in August. I'm relying solely on a hurricane-vacation to give me my break.
Yeah, and in 2001 almost TWO months passed between the first storm in early June (like this year's Barry) and the next storm in early August. It wasn't quiet by any means. Too many people think that every season is going to be a 2005 and because nothing forms in June or July it will be a bust (2001 was a La Nina year BTW - La Nina is not the reason why 2005 went crazy and in fact many La Nina seasons seem to be late seasons, probably because storms tend to favor the Caribbean vs the open Atlantic (note that this article was written before El Nino developed in 2006, as a result of Ioke crossing the Pacific and causing westerly winds) in those years and the Caribbean is most active in October).
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 7:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Wrong man for the job, that simple!

A job he never asked for, a job he was demoted into. A setup for failure from the start, because he was a whistleblower fighting for the public interest. Anyone who is not completely subservient to the Executive Branch is a marked man. Goodbye career, past accomplishments and science be damned.

The shoddy treatment and wholesale firing of government scientists who are not afraid to speak out and speak freely is the real scandal here.


Speaking of Ioke, I wonder if Cosme could possibly do something similar (not that I think it will actually happen, since 2006 did already have signs of an El Nino developing before Ioke; Ioke just dramatically accellerated it):



From Gray's October 2006 update:

But, there was an unexpected and surprisingly strong Nino 3 warming during August-September of approximately 0.6C. There is now a weak to moderate El Nio event. This years late El Nio event is similar to the late onset of 1986, but this years warming from July to September is considerably stronger than 1986. Looking back at the historical records of El Nio onset events for the 20th century, this season appears to be about the strongest two-month warming from July to September.

It is difficult to attribute this sudden warming to one particular cause, but we believe that intense, long-lived Hurricane Ioke which developed in the central Pacific on August 20 and tracked slowly westward across the central and eastern Pacific was an important contributor to the dramatic transition from neutral to El Nio conditions. Ioke caused strong westerly anomalies to develop at low latitudes near the dateline. These westerlies drove the warm anomalies in the western and central Pacific eastward.



I know that storms can indeed influence the trade winds, since Man-Yi caused significant westerly winds in the western equatorial Pacific, as far east as the date line.
Fired, sure! He was fired; but he was really let go because he couldn't command the respect of his peers! A trouble maker, pure and simple. A man that couldn't listen to the people entrusted to serving the public's interest. A showboat. The type that lets authority go to their heads.

Proenza, for sure, I'm glad he's not at the helm. The man simply can't lead!
Another thing to notice about 2001 is that it had only four storms - and no hurricanes - before September, probably leading many to think that it would be a dud (if anybody was following the tropics back then, though then 2005 didn't occur yet).
MICHAEL BOTH OF THOSE "SYSTEMS" YOU ARE REFERRING TO ARE ULL'S!!!!!!!
The conditions are supposed to shift but c'mon its like I heard 2 days ago a couple of people here were saying the wave off PR was going to be a cat 5 hurricane... Calm down you guys WILL get your storms before the season over in a few months......
One is late July Four in Aug. Four in Sept Two in Oct Pretty active so JP that is ten. You got four more. Add another one or two in Sept. Still two short. If you are right certainly it will be really active. Hope you all have a great wken.
STL, thanx for the info. on typhoon Loke!!! I did not know of it helping the El-Nino. Tell you what though it makes sense lol
A man that couldn't listen to the people entrusted to serving the public's interest. A showboat. The type that lets authority go to their heads.

Sounds like he's better suited for Congress or the White House.
Its a mess. Proenza and the Staff at the NHC both are projecting some perceived past injustice(s) and issues onto the science of the place I feel. NO ONE there seems to feel they can approach things directly and honestly. Thats a problem in the chain and the procedure.

I still think they should have at least made him stay and fix things for the season.

I also have a feeing Katrina works into all of this somewhere and somehow - but probably at different places for different people.
Mister, what a PERFECT statement LMAO!!!!!!
CATL wave althogh devoid of significant convection and embedded in dry air ,still mentains it's identity. it would be quite interesting, if convection were to build around what appears to be a small circulation
One is late July Four in Aug. Four in Sept Two in Oct Pretty active so JP that is ten. You got four more. Add another one or two in Sept. Still two short. If you are right certainly it will be really active. Hope you all have a great wken

Dont forget that some storms form in November and December also. So 1 in July, 4 in August, 4 in September, 2 in October and 2 in November and 1 in December. That would give us 15 including Barry.
I am glad its quiet I can enjoy my weekend in calmness in FL. Hope it stays that way. It would be cool if we only have 2 storms, but very low chances of that.
2001 activity:
June = 1 storm
July = 0 storms
August = 3 storms
September = 4 storms (4 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes)
October = 5 storms (3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes)
November = 2 storms (2 hurricanes)
Total = 15 storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes

We could easily see something like this.
I would vote Proenza over the clowns that run any day.
Uh oh that was a political statement.
I originally said to stop the Witch Hunt, JP. Meaning, Proenza has already been lambasted by the media and his employees. Now its Washington's turn to crack the whip. I have also been paying attention to this calamity over the last 4 or 5 weeks. Senior Senator Bill Nelson (D) from Floida has flip-flopped 3 times over the Proenza ordeal...IN WRITING DIRECTLY FROM HIS OFFICE. If you want proof, contact his office, I'm too lazy to find a link for you, but its there if ya dig. This is just another steaming pile of beauracracy and its sad that at the end of the rope is the tax payers who are certainly the first to fall.
So let me ask my question again from earlier lol
Where are these ULL'S coming from cause they were around last year same way & just buzzsawed any tropical system. Also it is sitting in where I had heard from here right where the Bermuda high supposed to be setup???
And we don't need a civics lesson on a weather blog about the fact that once elected to the Senate, you never have to pay taxes EVER again.
..not to mention over $50,000.00 in tax free income every year you live until you die paid by Joe and Jane Shcmo Taxpayer
Good reason to become a politician. I'd probably be better than the clowns they have now.
ULLs? I think they are always present; 2005 had a lot of ULLs as well, which can even be good for storms:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR
.
New blog...
Proof, Jp? "Go back and look everyone," you said. That's not telling the whole truth, Jp. You're getting very defensive with your debate.

The "proof" that the man can't lead was "evidenced" by the great number of employees who cited from their long time scientific and professional observations. No one wants to work for a jerk!

Let it rest, man! The guy is G O N E!

Let's get back on the weather. Stop dropping sorted facts and inuendo!
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 3:56 PM EDT on July 20, 2007.

A man that couldn't listen to the people entrusted to serving the public's interest. A showboat. The type that lets authority go to their heads.

Sounds like he's better suited for Congress or the White House.


Wouldn't be the first time it happened, either. About 120 years ago, the president fired a guy for cronyism. He became the next president.
Have any of the "war parties" in the NHC debate
read the transcripts linked in Dr. Master' report
on the hearing? There appears to be more to the
story than meets the Press. How about a follow up
synopsis on the subject from Dr. Masters.
I mean, c'mon. Nothing seems to be forming, as nothing will be until August. The wave off africa has to face dry-air; the Puerto Rican wave is battling the ULL...and the only way we can see "some" development from it, is if it gets away from the ULL.

The southern part of the wave is in the caribbean and, that too, won't develop becasue of that other ULL and lack of convection. Simple as that.

The best threat of development in the up-coming week is from a stalled trough off of the Carolinas in a few days. Even that, though, may not develop tropically and become Chantal, because of high wind shear and cooler waters. But, still, probably the best thing to watch, as of now...

Other than that, I would watch the African Coast when some SAL and shear/dry-air weakens as forecasted...maybe we can have our first CATL storm around the first week of August...

Let's just wait and see, like always..
318. CJ5
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
here is what I find funny about all this
I looked back at the debate we are having and I seem to be the only one who is stating proof and facts on my side of the argument
all of you who have debated against me have just stated he was being a dictator and what he did but showed absolutely no proof behind it
go look back everyone and see who has put out the most evidence to their argument

anyway im out


jp, you are exactly correct. I have seen nothing from Bill's detrators except statements that he was a mean boss, blah, blah, blah. No specifics at all. Masters mentioned over 2000 emails from staff that Proenza never answered, yet I see nothing in any testimony posted about that. Is that true? I do not know but I still see the indians at the NHC going out of thier way to paint everything in thier favor. Seems like they need to get to forecasting and quit giving interviews.

Oh, and one thing that still sticks in my craw is the quote from Avilla " I was stopped in the grocery store by a woman who asked me if it was true we were not able to predict storms like we use to" Give me a break! There are several at the NHC that have an overly high sense of themselves.
Posted By: TropicalMan07 at 8:45 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

i have a feeling if the half of the wave that is heading west that broke off the wave in the east carribean gets into the gulf it will explode and become major.


That is very unlikely, because that wave, also, is battling a ULL. Not to mention has no low at the sfc and the wave has little to no convection. And, to make it harder, the GOM may be increasing with shear in the following week or two...I would be watching the other wave above Puerto Rico. When the ULL moves, it could move into the Bahamas and develop. Though it probably won't happen, just gotta keep an eye on it.