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Powerful Nor'easter poised to pound Washington D.C. with 2 feet of snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on February 05, 2010

A powerful Nor'easter is winding up along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. this morning, and stands poised to deliver the Washington D.C. region its second huge winter storm of the season tonight and Saturday. While the Nor'easter will affect a relatively small portion of the coast compared to other historic storms, a narrow region of Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Delaware, and New Jersey should see two feet of snow, and three feet are possible in the higher elevation areas to the west of Washington D.C. If the snow amounts top 20.5" in Washington D.C., it will rank as that city's second largest snowstorm on record. Blizzard warnings are posted for Delaware and southern New Jersey, including Atlantic City, where winds will increase to 30 - 35 mph on Saturday, with gusts to 50 mph. Snowfall rates of 2 - 3 inches per hour will create whiteout blizzard conditions near the coast, and snowfall amounts should approach two feet. Lesser snow amounts near a foot are expected in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and 4 - 8 inches is expected in New York City.


The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. January 27-28, 1922 ... 28 inches
2. February 11-13, 1899 ... 20.5 inches
3. February 18-19, 1979 ... 18.7 inches
4. January 6-8, 1996 ... 17.1 inches
5. February 15-18, 2003 ... 16.7 inches
6. February 11-12, 1983 ...16.6 inches
7. December 19-20, 2009 ... 16.4 inches (Snowpocalypse)
8. February 15-16, 1958 ... 14.4 inches
9. February 7, 1936 ... 14.4 inches
10. February 16-18, 1900 ... 14.3 inches


Figure 1. The Nor'easter of February 5 - 6 winds up in this 9:30 am EST image from 2/5/10. Image credit: NASA GOES project.

This weekend's Nor'easter is the second huge winter storm to affect the nation's capital this winter. The December 19, 2009 Nor'easter produced a record 24-hour snowfall in Washington, D.C. and Clifton Forge, Virginia, where nearly 2 feet (61 cm) of snow accumulated. Some interior areas of West Virginia saw 30 inches (76 cm) of snow. The storm broke the record for the amount of snow in a single event in December at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, where 16.3 inches (41 cm) of snow accumulated. The storm was the 6th-greatest snowfall in D.C. history. In Philadelphia, snowfall reached 23.2 inches (59 cm), surpassing the 21 inches (53 cm) snowfall of February 11 - 12, 1983, as the city's second-largest, and breaking a 100-year-old record for the largest single December storm, set on December 25 - 26, 1909 (20.2 inches). The largest storm in Philadelphia history was the North American blizzard of 1996, which produced 30.7 inches (78 cm) of snow.

Have a great Super Bowl weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Ego Alley from Eastport
Ego Alley from Eastport
Shot towards Ego Alley, Marriott Hotel on the left. Snow on fence is 9 - 10
Flooding, snow, and ice. 1st st Ocean City, MD
Flooding, snow, and ice.  1st st Ocean City, MD

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ROFLMAO!!!

Where's our Cookie???
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Say, did you all notice that I actually posted a weather map (#478)?? The Pom wants a cookie!!

Here (you actually posted another in 483)

Quoting atmoaggie:

Hey, sport. No reason to be an a-hole.

And if you read back, you posted the hockey stick, I just debunked it. And the other guy brought up arctic sea ice, I brought up that it has more than one cause. It is all there for you to read and follow. Are you capable of that, or does it need to be a CNN "science" video or wiki?


Always calling people names - what's with that aggie? And what's with the "sport" thing?

I didn't read the original post, but it sounds like you're still flogging that Energy & Environment paper. All I can say is - if that's all you got, your cause was lost a long time ago. You couldn't debunk a grocery list with that paper. You can't even find that journal in a real library. How about you try some real science published in real journals every now and then? Just for yucks.

Expecting some of this on Sunday:
18 hours to the launch of shuttle Endeavour!
Anyone going to the launch? I read a poll, that KSC will be getting more visitors tonight than Disney gets in a week.
503: [snip, be nice]

What is a journal article?
Quoting Nimitz:
Just got an email from my sister-in-law. Short Gap, WV (just south of Cumberland, MD) has 24 inches now, not counting drifts, with 6-8" still to come, and blizzard conditions later today. The people that live up in the Appalachians are having an awful time of it, everything up there is either down hil or uphill. Thankfully, they build well and know how to stock up on food and provisions. I'm saying a prayer now for my 82 year old father-in-law in Frostburg, MD who lives alone.


I think they got the worst of it up there- at least for us it melted for the first several hours- It started around 10 ish and nothing really stuck 'til about 5- I think theirs stuck from the get go

we got about 20 inches so far- I was going to go dig out the fire hydrant out front but I can't find it... can't find the road either ;)
Here (you actually posted another in 483)

You noticed (wags tail)! TWO cookies, our favorite...thank you Atmo!
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
"Once we get through the weekend storm, much colder air will invade the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. The outlook for the northeast third of the country next week is looking much colder than normal," said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at private weather forecaster Planalytics.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0614305220100206

What i don't understand why the us still has powercables which often fail ... why no underground stuff like here in europe?

This is laughable.
Maybe one day we'll stop being Neanderthals and adopt the Ideal European Model.
Do you have any idea how much heat is generated in underground cable runs and the upsizing in conductor requirements to carry the same load?
Have you noticed how big our country is?
Ever been involved in a large construction project and faced with the chaos of existing underground utilities?
Ever had to dig up and repair lightning damage in the same chaotic enviroment?
GO BLUE !!!!!!
Quoting mikester:
Well if i could get a major storm i could enjoy the cold air for good riding snowmobiling.


Here ya go... (sending it AWAY)...

We have 29 inches and still dumping like crazy. The yorkie and the daughter are the only ones enjoying this. One gets out of school, and one gets ALL THAT STUFF TO EAT AND ROLL IN AND DRAG INSIDE!!!!

Quoting CybrTeddy:
18 hours to the launch of shuttle Endeavour!
Anyone going to the launch? I read a poll, that KSC will be getting more visitors tonight than Disney gets in a week.


I think Skyepony might be going to the launch!

There's the picnic table :)
WHO DAT SAY?


Death to the DOLTS!
Quoting atmoaggie:
503: [snip, be nice]

What is a journal article?

Sad thing is, I think you might be serious. I would't worry yourself though: just leave the science to the scientists and things should be OK.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Here ya go... (sending it AWAY)...

We have 29 inches and still dumping like crazy. The yorkie and the daughter are the only ones enjoying this. One gets out of school, and one gets ALL THAT STUFF TO EAT AND ROLL IN AND DRAG INSIDE!!!!



Too funny! Our Yorkie is like, WTH?? This isn't the dry and fluffy stuff; I hate ice balls!

The Pom, however, is remembering past-lives as a real dog, Samoyed, Husky, etc. Still looking at me from under bush like okay, enough, already...I know YOU are personally responsible, so cut out the nonsense now!
Quoting Appalachiangypsy:

There's the picnic table :)

Where. I can't even tell what it is so i'll take your word for it.
Too funny! Our Yorkie is like, WTH?? This isn't the dry and fluffy stuff; I hate ice balls!


With them short legs, I'm sure thats the case!
Quoting atmoaggie:
503: [snip, be nice]

What is a journal article?


Engineer/Technician's version of that:
"Manual? Man-u-al??!! We don't need no frackin' MANUAL!!!"
513. AwakeInMaryland

Wind may become an issue.
We're staying put.
If you've seen one...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Expecting some of this on Sunday:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I think Skyepony might be going to the launch!


I lost the Placard raffle on the shuttle launch so pics will be from my yard for that one. I bet one of the WU pro photo media guys will bring us some good pics, being the last night launch & all.

Did get super close placard pass for the Atlas V on Tuesday.
annapolis female grad driving the shuttle good luck tonight
Quoting OldLefty19081:

Sad thing is, I think you might be serious. I would't worry yourself though: just leave the science to the scientists and things should be OK.

Right. I have 8 years of this one in print form: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-archive&issn=1520-0469 I don't know why they just show up at my house every month...what do they they expect this ditch-digger to do with a Journal of Atmospheric Science?
Quoting Appalachiangypsy:


I think they got the worst of it up there- at least for us it melted for the first several hours- It started around 10 ish and nothing really stuck 'til about 5- I think theirs stuck from the get go

we got about 20 inches so far- I was going to go dig out the fire hydrant out front but I can't find it... can't find the road either ;)


She said she'd be sending pictures later today, I'll try to get them up. It's REAL bad up there, glad I'm here in Florida!
Quoting Skyepony:


I lost the Placard raffle on the shuttle launch so pics will be from my yard for that one. I bet one of the WU pro photo media guys will bring us some good pics, being the last night launch & all.

Did get super close placard pass for the Atlas V on Tuesday.


Thanks for checking in and clarification. If wind is a problem, as theshepherd noted, sounds like you "won" anyway!


hopefully these two pictures will show up.
Bunt cake is back (although now it looks more like regular cake.) 22 inches and still going.
I probably should have used snow pants when I went out to take these pics
528. DITTO. And thanks for those pics -- I'm semi-retired and would rather drink another cup of coffee.

Gypsy, also thnx.
Good Morining Awake...god we are getting crushed here in Annapolis!!! This is incredible the amounts of snow we are getting. That wind is howling too.
528: NICE! Yes, snowpants always over 12" at least. Not nice to have it in your socks ever.
I am really really jealous.

More totals please!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Thanks for checking in and clarification. If wind is a problem, as theshepherd noted, sounds like you "won" anyway!


With launch times ~4am shuttle vs 11am Atlas & two kids in tow I felt like I won big already.. I'm expecting the winds to lay down a bit by the shuttle launch time.
I'm expecting the winds to lay down a bit by the shuttle launch time.


;>)
Let's hope so. It sure throws a bunch of money down the drain when she don't go on time. :(
Quoting leftovers:
annapolis female grad driving the shuttle good luck tonight



:)

G'Morning, USA777. Yeah, it's a beast. I'm having flashbacks to getting "stuck" in NY as a junior high-schooler, 6 foot drifts. (It was a fun adventure, for a couple days...I'm sure it was awful for our hosts.)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Right. I have 8 years of this one in print form: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-archive&issn=1520-0469 I don't know why they just show up at my house every month...what do they they expect this ditch-digger to do with a Journal of Atmospheric Science?


You pay your money, they send you the journal. I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove? Maybe that anyone the enough money can call themselves a scientist?

Cool, I think I'll get me a subscription to Nuclear Physics; I've always wanted to be a Nuclear Physicist. I can leave the journal on my coffee table and impress all of my friends. I bet the maid will be impressed as well.

Who needs graduate school?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Right. I have 8 years of this one in print form: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-archive&issn=1520-0469 I don't know why they just show up at my house every month...what do they they expect this ditch-digger to do with a Journal of Atmospheric Science?


LOL Atmo! Credentials just don't matter if you question any GW positions. The extremist tendency is so noticeable that no less than Osama Bin Laden has tried to exploit it recently recognizing both the potential for recruits and political leverage against the "developed" countries of the world.
theshepherd~ Yeah, trying to base that on more than overly optimistic.. Haven't seen near the forecasted winds due to pressure gradient & the low causing is really moving fast.

Highest wind today has been 9.2mph. Highest gust 19.7mph.
Lefty, Atmo... my 'scrip to Hi-Lites ran out due to household cutbacks. :( The Wash. Post and FEMA for kids pages are okay, but that "Are you as smart as a 5th grader show" is too HARD!

Now that I'm being silly and ridiculous let's all just have fun and you two can wu mail me nastygrams e.g., like historical famous ones from stormno's mother and father!! :)
Quoting stormlvr:


LOL Atmo! Credentials just don't matter if you question any GW positions. The extremist tendency is so noticeable that no less than Osama Bin Laden has tried to exploit it recently recognizing both the potential for recruits and political leverage against the "developed" countries of the world.

You got that exactly right, the credentials don't really matter. It's the science that counts. If you can back up what you say with solid scientific evidence - i.e. something not from Energy & Environment magazine - then it doesn't really matter if your a high school dropout or a PhD. You just need to do your homework.
Quoting OldLefty19081:


You pay your money, they send you the journal. I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove? Maybe that anyone with enough money can call themselves a scientist?

Hey, it takes a lot of ditch digging to pay for those!

If only I had any formal education or extensive experience in the topic, I could get an AMS membership. Then the journal rates go down significantly.

L8, with all of the rain lately, there are ditches waiting for me to clear. This has been fun. And cerebral. I hope we meet again so we can have more of this intelligent dialog.
Morning all...I see the standard stir topics are still being used :)

And something about some kind of game played with a football vice a real game played with a puck :)
Quoting OldLefty19081:

You got that exactly right, the credentials don't really matter. It's the science that counts. If you can back up what you say with solid scientific evidence - i.e. something not from Energy & Environment magazine - then it doesn't really matter if your a high school dropout or a PhD. You just need to do your homework.

? The Loehle thing?

How do you know it isn't solid science? All of the raw data and methodology is available and all spelled out.
http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/

I do agree, though, solid, verifiable science can come from anywhere.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Morning all...I see the standard stir topics are still being used :)

And something about some kind of game played with a football vice a real game played with a puck :)


Greetings to the Drinking Country with a Hockey Problem!! How's the weather? Want some SNOOOOOOW??
Important Portlight Haiti update
Link
skye...yup.
Welcome to Fla ;>)
Atlantic dynamics battling Gomex, GOMEX battling whatever a jet streak loops down our way.
Throw in the Gulfstream playing games...good time to stay on the jetty ;>)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Greetings to the Drinking Country with a Hockey Problem!! How's the weather? Want some SNOOOOOOW??


No thank you very much.. we went through a lot of bother to send that crud to you..and it has no return address on the package :)

AND I might point out...Shep asked for it... so we are trying to grant his wish
Quoting Orcasystems:


No thank you very much.. we went through a lot of bother to send that crud to you..and it has no return address on the package :)

AND I might point out...Shep asked for it... so we are trying to grant his wish

Uh huh. Thanks mullet breath. May ten thousand puck fleas invade yer hockey stick...
Quoting Orcasystems:


No thank you very much.. we went through a lot of bother to send that crud to you..and it has no return address on the package :)


But they wouldn't let the Moose Milk ingredients go through the border! I hate the new border regulations...who's idea was that, anyway? Our right-wing regurgitators or yours?
Quoting Nimitz:
Just got an email from my sister-in-law. Short Gap, WV (just south of Cumberland, MD) has 24 inches now, not counting drifts, with 6-8" still to come, and blizzard conditions later today. The people that live up in the Appalachians are having an awful time of it, everything up there is either down hil or uphill. Thankfully, they build well and know how to stock up on food and provisions. I'm saying a prayer now for my 82 year old father-in-law in Frostburg, MD who lives alone.


Nimitz - I happen to live in Frostburg as well - if NEEDED and POSSIBLE, I can check in on him at your request. If you'd like, please feel free to WUmail me a phone number.

I have a 6 foot snowdrift in front of my house, with about 26-28 inches on the ground.
552. unf97
Good morning.

Wow! What a whopper of a winter storm over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. My goodness, for all of the WU bloggers in the Washington D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia areas please take extreme care this weekend. Just unbelievable snowfall accumulations in these areas.

Late next week, we could be seeing another major winter storm affecting portions of the SEUS, or moving into the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Northeast, depending on the track of the GOM Low. There are differences with the GFS and ECMWF models with regards to the track. GFS as of this morning is trending more on a southerrly track. Plenty of time to watch this obviously, but folks on the East Coast must keep alert to this situation in the Thursday -Saturday time frame of this upcoming week.
Quoting Orcasystems:
BLIZZARD '10


1. Iggy'ed
2. Flagged
3. No mocking from Hockey-Moosemilk Breath

(J/K peoples, just JOKING)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


But they wouldn't let the Moose Milk ingredients go through the border! I hate the new border regulations...who's idea was that, anyway? Our right-wing regurgitators or yours?

AIM are you ok, I have heard reports of up to 32" of snow on the ground in Maryland!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


But they wouldn't let the Moose Milk ingredients go through the border! I hate the new border regulations...who's idea was that, anyway? Our right-wing regurgitators or yours?


Its a National Defence drink... not to be shared with other nations ;)
Anyone wanna swap buckets loads of rain for snow?
Quoting atmoaggie:

? The Loehle thing?

How do you know it isn't solid science? All of the raw data and methodology is available and all spelled out.
http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/

I do agree, though, solid, verifiable science can come from anywhere.


Here's one hint, if it was solid science, it would have been published in a scientific journal. You know, one where the reviewers would have caught most of the glaring errors that appeared in the first version of the paper before it was published. Now we just need to wait for the next version where they correct the errors in this version.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone wanna swap buckets loads of rain for snow?


I prefer the buckets of rain (which we get), I don't remember the last time I had to shovel rain.

We are going golfing today :)
Quoting OldLefty19081:

You got that exactly right, the credentials don't really matter. It's the science that counts. If you can back up what you say with solid scientific evidence - i.e. something not from Energy & Environment magazine - then it doesn't really matter if your a high school dropout or a PhD. You just need to do your homework.


Unfortunately, a significant amount of currently accepted "solid scientific evidence" by the masses are based on shaky baselines and insufficient time line data sets. We have only scratched the surface when it comes to variables and interactions with both positive and negative feedback that will drive the long term climate. Lots of theories but nothing truly proven.
30 to 36" of snow being reported near Baltimore. My friend on the NW side said she has recieved 31" so far and is still snowing like crazy.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


1. Iggy'ed
2. Flagged
3. No mocking from Hockey-Moosemilk Breath

(J/K peoples, just JOKING)

AIM, its Bob, are you guys ok? It looks to be just as bad as they forecasted. They have DC and Baltimore under Blizzard Warnings till 10pm EST tonight! I just pray you guys keep power, please take some pics and post them so we can all see :0)!
Quoting OldLefty19081:


Here's one hint, if it was solid science, it would have been published in a scientific journal. You know, one where the reviewers would have caught most of the glaring errors that appeared in the first version of the paper before it was published. Now we just need to wait for the next version where they correct the errors in this version.


Ok, alright already... let it go.. that last remark did you in.

I think Climate gate proved how things were "vetted" to be published in "scientific journals".
Quoting Bordonaro:

AIM are you ok, I have heard reports of up to 32" of snow on the ground in Maryland!


Thanks, dear one! Really fine, so far. Don't know if you saw my post yesterday...we were very lucky, my local Giant Food grocery got a truck in yesterday morning, and the fresh produce looked great so I splurged! We have a carport so dogs have dashed under bushes to do their thing...although they are holding us personally responsible for this snow as well as continuing conflict in the middle east.

My neighbor with a BIG OLD, I mean OLD, early-model SUV already checked in to see if we need anything. So we're good.

Isn't it great to see "Unfriendly" being a great neighbor...really needs to change that moniker!

Take care!
Quoting usa777:
Good Morining Awake...god we are getting crushed here in Annapolis!!! This is incredible the amounts of snow we are getting. That wind is howling too.


I told you man my friend had a meeting in Baltimore at the NWS and they said 3' of snow is likely.
Quoting Bordonaro:

AIM, its Bob, are you guys ok? It looks to be just as bad as they forecasted. They have DC and Baltimore under Blizzard Warnings till 10pm EST tonight! I just pray you guys keep power, please take some pics and post them so we can all see :0)!


Sorry for delay in posting; another friend checked in from PA! This 15-mins. is kind of going to our heads!
563. Orcasystems
Yup...BBL

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Thanks, dear one! Really fine, so far. Don't know if you saw my post yesterday...we were very lucky, my local Giant Food grocery got a truck in yesterday morning, and the fresh produce looked great so I splurged! We have a carport so dogs have dashed under bushes to do their thing...although they are holding us personally responsible for this snow as well as continuing conflict in the middle east.

My neighbor with a BIG OLD, I mean OLD, early-model SUV already checked in to see if we need anything. So we're good.

Isn't it great to see "Unfriendly" being a great neighbor...really needs to change that moniker!

Take care!

Yes, I did, I know earlier you said that you had 24" earlier this morning.

The bad thing about this is this is WET HEAVY SNOW, which is dangerous because of its sheer weight. I don't know if your hubby can get up on the roof and clear things off. I just hope and pray the less fortunate have found a warm, safe place to stay!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, alright already... let it go.. that last remark did you in.

I think Climate gate proved how things were "vetted" to be published in "scientific journals".

It's called peer review. Tell us what you think the hacked emails "proved" about the peer review process. And be specific, please.
570. bcn
Atlantic monster, pressure 945, recurving to Nord-West:



Link
Quoting OldLefty19081:

It's called peer review. Tell us why you think the hacked emails "proved" about the peer review process. And be specific, please.


Oh I give up...
I know...I am using a old school yard tactic to win an argument...I am going to revert back to the old fashioned "I dream of Jeannie" solution....

Poof, disagreement settled :)
any reports out of the NJ area on snowfall amounts? Lakewood to be specific?
Washington DC Metro is a BIG, BIG MESS!!!

Dulles International Airport reports that 2 hangers have partially collapsed, link to live feed from WJIA Ch 7 Washington DC.
Link
Stuck in DC. used to live in NE. Now 12 miles from the White House in NOVA. This is serious snow. 22 inches on our deck. Snow very wet. I had the deck shoveled prior to this storm, but other decks already had 6 to 12 inches on them (snow fall from sky and roof) Expect roofs and decks to start coming down. Expect another serious band (2-3) inches an hour and then to taper off. So, call it 28-30 inches in total. 200,000 K with no power.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
any reports out of the NJ area on snowfall amounts? Lakewood to be specific?


For the life of me I am trying to remember who it is.... but we have a blogger from there...or at least he was on last year. I remember putting his nick on the map (prior to loosing the old laptop).

Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I give up...
I know...I am using a old school yard tactic to win an argument...I am going to revert back to the old fashioned "I dream of Jeannie" solution....

Poof, disagreement settled :)

Yeah, people generally give up one this one when asked to be specific. It always amazes me how wide the gulf between what people think they know and what they really know.

I should add here that the peer review process, in my opinion, is far from perfect. There's good ideas out there for improving it - some already in place. Still, it has worked pretty well over the years, all in all.
OldLefty - Here's how the trend line stands. Dashed lines are the full model range. Solid are the IPCC most likely range. Green is actual. 1979-2009.



Sources: UAH Sat temps and IPCC fourth assessment report.
Quoting Orcasystems:


For the life of me I am trying to remember who it is.... but we have a blogger from there...or at least he was on last year. I remember putting his nick on the map (prior to loosing the old laptop).


P451?
579. Xyrus
In Severn, MD here. I took several different measurements around my neck of suburbia with ranges from 25"-31", with heavy snow still falling. The wind has and is whipping around so much it's hard to get an accurate measurement but it seems like it's at least 2 feet with another 7"-11" predicted.

And it is wet heavy snow. So far we've had two trees collapse under the weight in my neighborhood (one sounded like a gun going off, it just snapped).

Amazing.

~X~
Quoting atmoaggie:

P451?


Yep, he was on blizzard92 blog last night and earlier this morning.
Quoting atmoaggie:

P451?


I can't remember :(
I lost most of my memory and common sense when I turned 50 last year.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I prefer the buckets of rain (which we get), I don't remember the last time I had to shovel rain.

We are going golfing today :)

Sand bagging is back breaking work, 7inch's of rain in 3 days is not much fun.
Quoting Seastep:
OldLefty - Here's how the trend line stands. Dashed lines are the full model range. Solid are the IPCC most likely range. Green is actual. 1979-2009.



Sources: UAH Sat temps and IPCC fourth assessment report.


Why would you assume that temperatures would increase in a linear fashion when atmospheric CO2 is still increasing? The plot doesn't really make a lot of sense - I'm wondering where you dug it up.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I prefer the buckets of rain (which we get), I don't remember the last time I had to shovel rain.

We are going golfing today :)


Like this, Orc?

Quoting AussieStorm:

Sand bagging is back breaking work, 7inch's of rain in 3 days is not much fun.

It is always interesting as to what qualifies as flood-creating rainfall in different locales.

Some places, 7 inches in 3 days would be a once-in-a-100-year flood event. Others, like here, that would equate to ho, hum, the yard is a bit soggy...nothing more. 7 inches becomes an issue for some if in one day, but for only a few places in SE LA.
Quoting OldLefty19081:


Why would you assume that temperatures would increase in a linear fashion when atmospheric CO2 is still increasing? The plot doesn't really make a lot of sense - I'm wondering where you dug it up.


Trend line is the way to go.

If data were available for 1979-2100 and the trend held, that would be the graph of it.

We'll see what it looks like in 10, then 20, etc. years from now.

Modified to add direct answer. I am not assuming temps will only change in a linear fashion. Just showing the trend of the change.
Quoting atmoaggie:

It is always interesting as to what qualifies as flood-creating rainfall in different locales.

Some places, 7 inches in 3 days would be a once-in-a-100-year flood event. Others, like here, that would equate to ho, hum, the yard is a bit soggy...nothing more. 7 inches becomes an issue for some if in one day, but for only a few places in SE LA.



I can tell you in 1995, in my hometown of Port Charlotte, we had 16.5 inches of rain in 10 1/2 hours. They called that a once in 500 year event. Some places in town the water was 6 1/2 ft deep.
Well so far in the DC area totals are from 17" in Alexandria, VA up to 32" in the NW hills in Maryland. And the snow is still coming down at 1-3" per hr in the DC metro!
Quoting Unfriendly:


Nimitz - I happen to live in Frostburg as well - if NEEDED and POSSIBLE, I can check in on him at your request. If you'd like, please feel free to WUmail me a phone number.

I have a 6 foot snowdrift in front of my house, with about 26-28 inches on the ground.


WUmail out.
Quoting Seastep:


Trend line is the way to go.

If data were available for 1979-2100 and the trend held, that would be the graph of it.

We'll see what it looks like in 10, then 20, etc. years from now.

But why a linear trend? You're assuming a linear function is the best fit to the data but what's the basis for this assumption? If temperature is being driven by CO2 and CO2 is increasing, it makes no sense at all.

Maybe you can tell us where you found that graph so we can see what assumptions that they've made.
Quoting OldLefty19081:

But why a linear trend line? You're assuming a linear function is the best fit to the data but what's the basis for this assumption? If temperature is being driven by CO2 and CO2 is increasing, it makes no sense at all.

Maybe you can tell us where you found that graph so we can see what assumptions that they've made.


No I am not. Doing the same thing as IPCC. They state "... will increase by xx per decade, on averaged until 2100" or similar.

How it increases is irrelevant. The longer the trend stays flatter, the more it would have to make up. I think the point of no return on that is 10 years. Too much to make up.

And, as to CO2, that is irrelevant also. Actually the more the current trend holds, the less likely CO2 becomes as a significant forcing.

And, I believe CO2 is a very minor factor.

Quoting OldLefty19081:

But why a linear trend? You're assuming a linear function is the best fit to the data but what's the basis for this assumption? If temperature is being driven by CO2 and CO2 is increasing, it makes no sense at all.

Maybe you can tell us where you found that graph so we can see what assumptions that they've made.


Sorry, just saw your source request. I made the graph from the data.

Here it is:

UAH Temps

IPCC Fourth Assessment
Link from the NWS Baltimore-Washington DC, showing most recent totals. From 19-20" in DC and 25-33" in the NW Maryland, WV and NW VA.

Link
Also, I normalized it to the year 2000 as the base year. Reason being is that the assessment reports all base their predictions relative to that.

It is a comparison of the predictions to what is actually happening.

Gotta run my daughter somewhere. BBL.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Washington DC Metro is a BIG, BIG MESS!!!

Dulles International Airport reports that 2 hangers have partially collapsed, link to live feed from WJIA Ch 7 Washington DC.
Link


Wouldn't it have been nice if they had workers shoveling roofs? (Aside: this is just chiding a town in VA that was very unpleasant to an immigrant labor-employment social service agency.) Shoveling roofs as opposed to funding machines that see through our clothing? Okay, I don't know if it's even the same fund...hope they enjoy looking at our cellulite!

Our power just glitched a few minutes ago...uh oh. I am going to boil up some hot water, just in case Beltway-Hell does freeze over shortly!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Wouldn't it have been nice if they had workers shoveling roofs) (Aside: this is just chiding a town in VA that was very unpleasant to an immigrant labor-employment social service agency.) Shoveling roofs as opposed to funding machines that see through our clothing? Okay, I don't know if it's even the same fund...hope they enjoy looking at our cellulite!

Our power just glitched a few minutes ago...uh oh. I am going to boil up some hot water, just in case Beltway-Hell does freeze over shortly!


Stay warm, hopefully you get to keep your power. Looks like about 2 or maybe 3 more hours of heavier snow, then it should begin to taper off. Reagan National has 15.4" at 12Noon EST, with maybe about 2-5" more to come.
Quoting charlottefl:



I can tell you in 1995, in my hometown of Port Charlotte, we had 16.5 inches of rain in 10 1/2 hours. They called that a once in 500 year event. Some places in town the water was 6 1/2 ft deep.


I hate flooding worse than any other disasters, because of long-term health & environmental effects as well as short-term extreme nastiness; jmo.
one storm wrapping up, another right behind :)

Ow I just came back from shoveling and our driveway is long. I left a sled out 45 minutes ago there already an inch and a half on it. The snow is so high the swings on the swing set are resting in the snow. I get some pics and totals soon but for right now I'm going to lay down
I can hear my gal-pal in Indiana laughing hard, too!
CRU-EL!!
WJLA Channel 7 News, Washington DC live DC Snow coverage below:
Link
"Wouldn't it have been nice if they had workers shoveling roofs?"

Maybe not for the workers on the roof when it collapses. Rule of thumb is that you don't risk lives to prevent simple property damage.
Quoting OldLefty19081:
"Wouldn't it have been nice if they had workers shoveling roofs?"

Maybe not for the workers on the roof when it collapses. Rule of thumb is that you don't risk lives to prevent simple property damage.


:) Well, yes, understood, Old Left Guard!!

And stay outta' the way of the First Responders;
Don't become part of the problem;
Broads and and Videotape ruined Television (whoops, that's another old tape playing on an audio-loop in my head.)


Quoting Seastep:


No I am not. Doing the same thing as IPCC. They state "... will increase by xx per decade, on averaged until 2100" or similar.

How it increases is irrelevant. The longer the trend stays flatter, the more it would have to make up. I think the point of no return on that is 10 years. Too much to make up.

And, as to CO2, that is irrelevant also. Actually the more the current trend holds, the less likely CO2 becomes as a significant forcing.

And, I believe CO2 is a very minor factor.



Just for the sake of fairness, here's the graph from the IPCC AR4 (figure SPM5). You'll notice that the "Year 2000 constant concentrations" line looks pretty similar to your projection of the historic UAH data. There's probably a reason for that. You might also notice that the IPCC warming projection for the A2 scenario does't look particularly linear.


Photobucket

I got 6 inches of snow last night, another 6-10 coming monday

Quoting OldLefty19081:


Just for the sake of fairness, here's the graph from the IPCC AR4 (figure SPM5). You'll notice that the "Year 2000 constant concentrations" line looks pretty similar to your projection of the historic UAH data. There's probably a reason for that. You might also notice that the IPCC warming projection for the A2 scenario does't look particularly linear.


Photobucket



There is a reason for that. They know the actual temps for 2000-2007.

Below is through 2007 and then through 2009. Actual is moving farther from the prediction. It is not moving closer. Maybe that will change. But for now, the actual temperature trend isn't supporting the prediction.

Through 2007:



Through 2009:

Already got a few more inches
Quoting Seastep:


They state "... will increase by xx per decade, on averaged until 2100" or similar.

How it increases is irrelevant.

Cite your source please. As i read you have been ask this already several times now but you keep on posting the same again ...
Do you really want a discussion on future scenarios? I don't think so ...
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Already got a few more inches
I would start worrying about roof weight.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1231 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-050>057-501-502-
062200-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS
PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...
WARRENTON
1231 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION...EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY...

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

...POISED TO SET ALL-TIME STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR
BALTIMORE...

BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM FOR MARYLAND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC AND WEST
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL 10 PM.

AT 11:45 AM THIS MORNING...WEATHER OBSERVERS AT BALTIMORE`S THURGOOD
MARSHALL BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED 26.5
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS IS ONLY 0.3 INCHES SHY OF THE
26.8 INCH RECORD FROM THE PRESIDENTS DAY FEBRUARY 2003 STORM. THE
AIRPORT IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE THE
STORM ENDS THIS EVENING. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN THE
RECORD IS REACHED.

GENERALLY...24 TO 32 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS NORTH OF A
LINE BETWEEN ANNAPOLIS MD TO WASHINGTON DC TO PETERSBURG WV. SOUTH
OF THIS LINE TO CHARLOTTESVILLE VA...APPROXIMATELY 14 TO 20 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN.


AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE
SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH CREATING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Cite your source please. As i read you have been ask this already several times now but you keep on posting the same again ...
Do you really want a discussion on future scenarios? I don't think so ...


I've given my sources. Here's more specific to what you replied to for now. I'll find the exact quote for the model range and most likely.

"...warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected..."

"...a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected."

Source

What, specifically have I not sourced?
Quoting Seastep:


Sorry, just saw your source request. I made the graph from the data.

Here it is:

UAH Temps

IPCC Fourth Assessment


You read back? Post 592.
Dupont Circle @ Connecticut Ave D.C.

Although dated I find the info here way more accurate than anything the MMGW crowd has put forth.
And for that matter way more believable.

SOLAR WIND NEAR EARTH: INDICATOR OF VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

Theodor Landscheidt

Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity

Link
theshepard:"This is laughable.
Maybe one day we'll stop being Neanderthals and adopt the Ideal European Model.
Do you have any idea how much heat is generated in underground cable runs and the upsizing in conductor requirements to carry the same load?
Have you noticed how big our country is?
Ever been involved in a large construction project and faced with the chaos of existing underground utilities?
Ever had to dig up and repair lightning damage in the same chaotic enviroment?"

Well i don't know, just that i never witnessed a power outage in my life ...
Still waiting for an update from the NWS Balt-DC to see if the BWI snowfall record has officially been surpassed!

seastep this must be very intresting for you to watch, as you clearly have high intrest in the work of IPCC and it's scenarios. Enjoy!
Link


traffic cams
Here's 2000 forward. Actual vs. projected. Already, about 1.3 degrees to catch up to the low end of the IPCC projection.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
theshepard:"This is laughable.
Maybe one day we'll stop being Neanderthals and adopt the Ideal European Model.
Do you have any idea how much heat is generated in underground cable runs and the upsizing in conductor requirements to carry the same load?
Have you noticed how big our country is?
Ever been involved in a large construction project and faced with the chaos of existing underground utilities?
Ever had to dig up and repair lightning damage in the same chaotic enviroment?"

Well i don't know, just that i never witnessed a power outage in my life ...


AC vs. DC.


Figure 3. The solid curve shows the aa index of geomagnetic activity, the dashed curve a combination of global land air and sea surface temperature anomalies. The yearly data were subjected to repeated three-point smoothing. Temperature lags aa by 4 to 8 years, but follows the undulations of the aa curve. The connection between the leading aa extrema and the following temperature extrema is highlighted by identical numbers. A disturbance of the correlation around 1940 points to exceptional internal forcing.

The axis of ordinates on the right indicates the original yearly aa index without any offset. The original data were subjected to repeated three-point smoothing. These strongly smoothed data, covering 1868 - 1985, show a very close correlation between geomagnetic activity, driven by high-speed plasma streams in the solar wind, and global land and sea surface temperatures (r = 0.96). This correlation explains 92% of the variance. As this result is based on the data that have already been shown to be highly significant, it can be considered valid. Temperature lags aa on the average by 6 years. The lag varies from 4 to 8 years. The related extrema in the two curves are marked by identical numbers. The temperature curve follows the undulations of the aa curve. There is only one exception. After 1942 temperature did no longer follow the ascent of aa and formed a shallow trough not emerging in the aa curve. An explanation could be that between 1942 and 1952 the steepest rise in volcanic activity since 1860 was observed (Simkin et al., 1981).

Link
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
I would start worrying about roof weight.

We had that problem in 2003-04 Isabel threw a tree on our house then a blizzard came a few months later. Our roof was creeking constantly and occasionally a beam in the attic would fall. Our roof seems to be fine now *knock on wood*
Still hangin' in. Was just about to post, all's well when hubby just looked out and said "Here comes the winds!"

Topper Shutt, Ch. 9,
shovel in shifts,
dig out storm drains,
dig out window wells,
dig out around furnace (phew, thanks for reminder, Topper);
check on pets,
dig out around mailbox (uh, no mail service...)

And from Fire & Rescue, pls. dig out hydrants.
Check on older neighbors (thank you, all, I'm older than ORCA, omg!)

Back to Ch. 9; feed the birds.

We're not in the heaviest part of map anymore (for now?) Guesstimate we have the same as all4hurricanes...haven't taken pics of it yet...got pretty good shot of frazzled yorkie in front of laptop, though! :)

ADD-ON, Fire and Rescue, VA, I think, recommended not going up on roofs...(jmo, pick your poison?)
The IPCC did not predict this,yet its what is happening.



Long-range forecast of global temperature

The presented results suggest that future change in global temperature may be read from the leading aa data. Fig. 4 shows the repeatedly smoothed yearly global land and sea surface temperature anomalies and aa values after 1985. Around 1990 the aa curve reached the highest maximum since the beginning of the record in 1868. This aa maximum is marked by the number 7. Allowing for a lag of 8 years, the corresponding maximum 7 of global temperature could have occurred in 1998 with the highest temperature measured since the establishment of regular meteorological services.

After 1990 the aa data show a steep decline that is still continuing though the current sunspot cycle has reached its maximum. In the context presented here, this points to global cooling during the decade after temperature maximum 7.

Figure 4. Extension of the data in Fig. 3. The aa curve reaches its highest maximum, marked by number 7, around 1990. After 1990 the aa data show a steep decline. Allowing for a lag of 8 years, a maximum in the curve of global temperature could have occurred around 1998. This was the year with the highest temperature observed since the establishment of international meteorological services. In 1999 the temperature was considerably lower, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. This relationship points to global cooling for at least 10 years.

Link
2. Connection between extrema in CO2 growth rates
and crucial phases in the Sun’s torque cycle



I have shown that ENSO events are closely connected with eruptive phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle. This relationship was corroborated by correct long-range forecasts of the last three El Niños and the course of the last La Niña. In addition, I have provided evidence that negative and positive extrema in global temperature anomalies like those in 1992 and 1998 show such a close relationship with solar motion cycles and solar activity that they can be predicted years before the respective event (Landscheidt, 1983-2003). In view of the synchronism described by the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases it seems justified to investigate whether there is, too, a link between variations in CO2 growth rates and the solar cycles used in the forecast of global temperature.

Link
My only point here is that its the sun stupid.
(Not directed at any one)

Yes lets clean the earth!
Lets not jump off a manufactured carbon credit scheme that does nothing to clean the earth,but only robs the world of needed capitol to deal with the coming climate natural cycles.
Link below to NWS Baltimore-DC Snow Totals as of 2:28PM EST 2-6-10. Highest amount 36", in Frostburg, MD.

Also breaking news on a church collapse in the NE DC area. Joshua Church of the Firstborn has collapesed, no injuries. The official report at DC Reagan AP is 17", just reported.

Link

Ch 7, WJLA, Washington DC Live News feed:

Link
I'm with you spathy. I think the most likely case is that CO2 follows warming, rather than driving.

If that assumption is used vs. the opposite, it is a much better fit with the observations.
Staying at my in-laws in NOVA. Have about 2 ft +. My brother-in-law a forty-something, out of shape fellow, has been shoveling for 4 hours nonstop. He won't stop, despite the screaming, etc. I suspect he can't deal with the idea of not having his car available or maybe he has a death wish. Don't know. Its tough, as we are their guests for three months while my wife recuperates. I will go out again now and try to grab the shovel from him.
Quoting OuterBanker:
Staying at my in-laws in NOVA. Have about 2 ft +. My brother-in-law a forty-something, out of shape fellow, has been shoveling for 4 hours nonstop. He won't stop, despite the screaming, etc. I suspect he can't deal with the idea of not having his car available or maybe he has a death wish. Don't know. Its tough, as we are their guests for three months while my wife recuperates. I will go out again now and try to grab the shovel from him.


That sounds like a good plan, bring him out some hot chocolate to drink, strike up a conversation about something that causes him to think, grab his shovel, he needs to rest a bit!!
Thanks Seas
There was a section on the warming oceans causing increase in co2 because of the solar activity.
But being as computer non savvy I cant seem to find it amongst all the info on the solar site.
Reston, VA has 30" on the ground, and it's still falling! An amazing snowstorm, beat out the Dec 19-20th, 2009 storm already!!
Oops. NWS hourly forecast is figuring on a -80 F dewpoint later tonight...break out the Eucerin!

Again to reemphasize.
Please lets do more to remove mans co2 and other things that can contribute to a dirty planet.
Can we just use the carrot and stick approach and not just the stick?
spathy - CO2 is a colorless, odorless, harmless gas essential to life on the planet.

As for other environmental concerns, no question in my mind, that is where the resources and efforts should be directed.
Hi Atmo
Have you read any of the obviously dated material I linked to?
Please post here or via WU mail.
You seem to have an open thought process on this heated subject.
They're calling it the "Snowpocalypse".
When I told my son that he came up with "Cryogeddon"!
Hangers at Dulles are collapsing due to the weight of the snow.
My friend near Baltimore has had 33" and the snow just stopped. She said last night was the worst snow she's ever seen.
Quoting Bordonaro:


That sounds like a good plan, bring him out some hot chocolate to drink, strike up a conversation about something that causes him to think, grab his shovel, he needs to rest a bit!!
So I went outside, told him I had WUed about him and told him the plan (didn't want to take time making hot chocolate). AND it worked, he came in. Don;t know if it was the publicity on WU or the thought of making some hot chocolate or what, but it worked. He's in and looks like crap. Head soaked, hypothermic, and a little incoherent. We will watch him close and can have him at Fairfax Hospital in five minutes, but I think he will be okay. Thanks Bordonaro
Seas
Thanks for the clarification.
What I meant by that was in an ideal non reachable world; Is lets leave only footsteps and take nothing but pictures.
Or if over time we could not add to the gases in the atmosphere anything more than occurs naturally.
That may be a pipe dream but we could do our best.And not destroy the standard of living and contributions an advanced society has given the world.
Capitol ism has made the World a better place.
And capitalist innovation will make the World a cleaner place.
But mandates will only delay the best outcomes.
Looking at the pattern it appears as if the New England will miss most storms to there south for the next few weeks. This means more big storms for the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast. Infact maybe a nor easter along the NE FL coast extending up to the Outerbanks about 9 or 10 days down the road.
647. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook...




8-14 day temperature outlook...

648. IKE
6-10 day precip outlook...




8-14 day precip outlook...

Quoting OuterBanker:
So I went outside, told him I had WUed about him and told him the plan (didn't want to take time making hot chocolate). AND it worked, he came in. Don;t know if it was the publicity on WU or the thought of making some hot chocolate or what, but it worked. He's in and looks like crap. Head soaked, hypothermic, and a little incoherent. We will watch him close and can have him at Fairfax Hospital in five minutes, but I think he will be okay. Thanks Bordonaro


Have his wife go run a lukewarm bath, give him something like fruit juice, Gatorade, no alcohol and no caffiene. Have his wife take his temperature. If it is below 93F, he needs to go to the emergency room, he needs to dry put on some dry clothing, if he refuses to take a bath.
Quoting Seastep:


I've given my sources. Here's more specific to what you replied to for now. I'll find the exact quote for the model range and most likely.

"...warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected..."

"...a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected."

Source

What, specifically have I not sourced?

OK, obviously your graphs have very little to do with IPCC projections. And for the record the exact, not taken out of context, quote from AR4 is:

"For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios.

How does the next two decades turn into the next one hundred years?

If you care to have a discussion based on what's actually in AR4, I'm all for it. If you're going to continue to make stuff up based on what you'd like people to think is in AR4 - presumably because your goal is to discredit the IPCC - well, good luck with that. Folks like you have been trying to discredit the IPCC for a couple of decades now. It hasn't worked so far but some folks just seem to enjoy tilting at windmills.


Quoting IKE:
6-10 day precip outlook...




8-14 day precip outlook...



I think Florida is in for a lot of rain late next week. What are your thoughts on this IKE?
652. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think Florida is in for a lot of rain late next week. What are your thoughts on this IKE?


Hoping to see a flake of snow here in the panhandle.

I agree...looks wet for Florida.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Have his wife go run a lukewarm bath, give him something like fruit juice, Gatorade, no alcohol and no caffiene. Have his wife take his temperature. If it is below 93F, he needs to go to the emergency room, he needs to dry put on some dry clothing, if he refuses to take a bath.


Man, do I not miss that. And it always snowed on my birthday... 125' driveway + sidewalk.
Quoting OldLefty19081:

OK, obviously your graphs have very little to do with IPCC projections. And for the record the exact, not taken out of context, quote from AR4 is:

"For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios.

How does the next two decades turn into the next one hundred years?

If you care to have a discussion based on what's actually in AR4, I'm all for it. If you're going to continue to make stuff up based on what you'd like people to think is in AR4 - presumably because your goal is to discredit the IPCC - well, good luck with that. Folks like you have been trying to discredit the IPCC for a couple of decades now. It hasn't worked so far but some folks just seem to enjoy tilting at windmills.




They don't? What is the IPCC projected most likely range?
Quoting IKE:


Hoping to see a flake of snow here in the panhandle.

I agree...looks wet for Florida.


A Gulf low cutting across C FL soaking us but the question is does this storm bomb out just off the east coast as the GFS was hinting at yesterday.
Quoting Seastep:


Man, do I not miss that. And it always snowed on my birthday... 125' driveway + sidewalk.

I used to shovel a short 40' drive, about 50' of sidewalk and a 6' x 6' enclosed porch as a teen ager, that was enough!!
Quoting OldLefty19081:

OK, obviously your graphs have very little to do with IPCC projections. And for the record the exact, not taken out of context, quote from AR4 is:

"For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios.

How does the next two decades turn into the next one hundred years?

If you care to have a discussion based on what's actually in AR4, I'm all for it. If you're going to continue to make stuff up based on what you'd like people to think is in AR4 - presumably because your goal is to discredit the IPCC - well, good luck with that. Folks like you have been trying to discredit the IPCC for a couple of decades now. It hasn't worked so far but some folks just seem to enjoy tilting at windmills.




Best estimates and likely ranges for global average surface air warming for six SRES emissions marker scenarios are given in this assessment and are shown in Table SPM.3. For example, the best estimate for the low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and the best estimate for the high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Although these projections are broadly consistent with the span quoted in the TAR (1.4°C to 5.8°C), they are not directly comparable (see Figure SPM.5). The Fourth Assessment Report is more advanced as it provides best estimates and an assessed likelihood range for each of the marker scenarios. The new assessment of the likely ranges now relies on a larger number of climate models of increasing complexity and realism, as well as new information regarding the nature of feedbacks from the carbon cycle and constraints on climate response from observations.

Source

That's 1.8 to 4.0... exactly what the graphs portray.
Quoting OldLefty19081:

OK, obviously your graphs have very little to do with IPCC projections. And for the record the exact, not taken out of context, quote from AR4 is:

"For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios.

How does the next two decades turn into the next one hundred years?

If you care to have a discussion based on what's actually in AR4, I'm all for it. If you're going to continue to make stuff up based on what you'd like people to think is in AR4 - presumably because your goal is to discredit the IPCC - well, good luck with that. Folks like you have been trying to discredit the IPCC for a couple of decades now. It hasn't worked so far but some folks just seem to enjoy tilting at windmills.




And what, specifically, am I making up?
Quoting Jeff9641:
Looking at the pattern it appears as if the New England will miss most storms to there south for the next few weeks. This means more big storms for the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast. Infact maybe a nor easter along the NE FL coast extending up to the Outerbanks about 9 or 10 days down the road.
yep with jet stuck till after feb 25 by then severe in full swing then a slow rise north in storm track till spring on mar 21 42 days from now mid atlantic will pass the all time high for snow by then
Is that big low by Greeneland carrying lots of water with it that is about ready to dump on the far north
Methodology clarification, the graphs show slightly higher because it is 1.8/95 and 4.0/95 to normalize. 95 being years left from the projection, which is really based on model runs from 2005.
Quoting Seastep:


Best estimates and likely ranges for global average surface air warming for six SRES emissions marker scenarios are given in this assessment and are shown in Table SPM.3. For example, the best estimate for the low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and the best estimate for the high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Although these projections are broadly consistent with the span quoted in the TAR (1.4°C to 5.8°C), they are not directly comparable (see Figure SPM.5). The Fourth Assessment Report is more advanced as it provides best estimates and an assessed likelihood range for each of the marker scenarios. The new assessment of the likely ranges now relies on a larger number of climate models of increasing complexity and realism, as well as new information regarding the nature of feedbacks from the carbon cycle and constraints on climate response from observations.

Source

That's 1.8 to 4.0... exactly what the graphs portray.

Last post from me on the subject. Look at the graph from the IPCC AR4 in post #604. Look specifically at the projection for scenario A2. Do you really think that that's a projection of a linear increase in temperatures?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep with jet stuck till after feb 25 by then severe in full swing then a slow rise north in storm track till spring on mar 21 42 days from now mid atlantic will pass the all time high for snow by then


Flooding will be a big issue in the Mid Atlantic once all of this snow starts to melt. Plus several more storms looming with each possibly producing 10 to 20".
My sister-in-law, Short Gap, WV, about 20 miles south of Cumberland, MD.



I am EVER so glad to be in Florida!!!
Quoting Seastep:

Methodology clarification, the graphs show slightly higher because it is 1.8/95 and 4.0/95 to normalize. 95 being years left from the projection, which is really based on model runs from 2005.



And, by all means, I'd be happy to graph it based on criteria of your choosing.

Just let me know. I'll whip it up for you.
649. Bordonaro 8:45 PM GMT on February 06, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting OuterBanker:
So I went outside, told him I had WUed about him and told him the plan (didn't want to take time making hot chocolate). AND it worked, he came in. Don;t know if it was the publicity on WU or the thought of making some hot chocolate or what, but it worked. He's in and looks like crap. Head soaked, hypothermic, and a little incoherent. We will watch him close and can have him at Fairfax Hospital in five minutes, but I think he will be okay. Thanks Bordonaro

Have his wife go run a lukewarm bath, give him something like fruit juice, Gatorade, no alcohol and no caffiene. Have his wife take his temperature. If it is below 93F, he needs to go to the emergency room, he needs to dry put on some dry clothing, if he refuses to take a bath.


Oh, gee, seems Bob was on EMS duty; good job, btw.
I was taking my own pre-emptive afternoon hot bath (so nice)...snow is slowing down; think we could actually dodge the bullet but I'm not counting on it because of winds.

OuterBanker, I'm glad Bob was on this shift, because I'm within local telephone distance of you...and I don't think I would have been so gentle! If your bro-in-law was pasty and/or hyperventilating, as well as those other symptoms...well, stroke comes to mind. But I'm not EMS, just CERT...just wanted to check in, and hope you'll keep posting. Thanks, both of you.
Quoting Nimitz:
My sister-in-law, Short Gap, WV, about 20 miles south of Cumberland, MD.



I am EVER so glad to be in Florida!!!


Great pic. That reminds me of when I lived in MN as a kid. We'd dig down to the grass in our yard and across the street would do the same. Gotta add a wall in front, and then... have at it with a snowball fight!
Quoting Patrap:
St. Charles Ave. Parade cam,for tonight's Parades Uptown


Great weather for a great game tomorrow.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
649. Bordonaro 8:45 PM GMT on February 06, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting OuterBanker:
So I went outside, told him I had WUed about him and told him the plan (didn't want to take time making hot chocolate). AND it worked, he came in. Don;t know if it was the publicity on WU or the thought of making some hot chocolate or what, but it worked. He's in and looks like crap. Head soaked, hypothermic, and a little incoherent. We will watch him close and can have him at Fairfax Hospital in five minutes, but I think he will be okay. Thanks Bordonaro

Have his wife go run a lukewarm bath, give him something like fruit juice, Gatorade, no alcohol and no caffiene. Have his wife take his temperature. If it is below 93F, he needs to go to the emergency room, he needs to dry put on some dry clothing, if he refuses to take a bath.


Oh, gee, seems Bob was on EMS duty; good job, btw.
I was taking my own pre-emptive afternoon hot bath (so nice)...snow is slowing down; think we could actually dodge the bullet but I'm not counting on it because of winds.

OuterBanker, I'm glad Bob was on this shift, because I'm within local telephone distance of you...and I don't think I would have been so gentle! If your bro-in-law was pasty and/or hyperventilating, as well as those other symptoms...well, stroke comes to mind. But I'm not EMS, just CERT...just wanted to check in, and hope you'll keep posting. Thanks, both of you.

Thanks, noone in their right mind, fit or unfit needs to spend more than 20 minutes out shoveling, before you take a quick 10 minutes, before you resume shoveling.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, noone in their right mind, fit or unfit needs to spend more than 20 minutes out shoveling, before you take a quick 10 minutes, before you resume shoveling.


Move to Florida it's 66 here even after a cold front passage. 77 in Miami right now.
672. amd
not sure if this has been mentioned, but with the big snows on the east coast, this has become the 1st winter season in recorded history that Philadelphia has received at least 20 inches of snow with 2 storms.

Also, All-time biggest snows in Philly (Top 3)
1. Blizzard of 1996: 30.7 inches
2. Blizzard of 2010: 28.5 inches*
3. Blizzard of 2009: 23.2 inches


* As of 4:45 p.m. est, should be final total
Request re blizzard: Where, on WU or elsewhere, can I find a map of snow depths as of, say, noon today? I know Long Island, NY was spared the brunt of it, but I'd like to get a sense of where I could take the kids tomorrow. The current WU snow depth map is from yesterday and shows no snow east of Manhattan.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Move to Florida it's 66 here even after a cold front passage. 77 in Miami right now.

I live in Arlington, TX. Our average yearly temp is about 67F. Except for a cool/chilly spell every now and then between Nov and Mar, our weather is really nice. Except summer can occassionally be like a blast furnace!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Move to Florida it's 66 here even after a cold front passage. 77 in Miami right now.


Have resume; convertible, sunscreen and bug-spray; willing to relocate; no rug-rats, just ratty-looking small dogs.
Latest from the NWS Baltimore-DC at 3:49PM EST Snowfall Totals, VERY IMPRESSIVE

Link
Quoting OldLefty19081:

Last post from me on the subject. Look at the graph from the IPCC AR4 in post #604. Look specifically at the projection for scenario A2. Do you really think that that's a projection of a linear increase in temperatures?



You don't get it do you? It has nothing to do with how the actual temps occur, linear or otherwise. I am not representing that temps will rise that way. It is a comparison of actual vs. projected temperature trend.

It will be 1.8-4.0 hotter according to the projections or not. But, if they are already way behind, those have to be even STEEPER to make it up.

As an example, and as I have said many times that the next 10 years will be telling, by 2020, it should be up to .5 compared to 2000 according to the IPCC models... your own graph.

Unless something changes drastically, that will only be at about .2.

It is trending in the wrong direction.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Have resume; convertible, sunscreen and bug-spray; willing to relocate; no rug-rats, just ratty-looking small dogs.


What are you waiting for!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest from the NWS Baltimore-DC at 3:49PM EST Snowfall Totals, VERY IMPRESSIVE

Link


Closest to Moi: 1 N FOUR CORNERS 25.0" 300 PM 2/06

Seems about right.

One of the locals mentioned this morning that Reagan-National Airport is a really crummy place to measure for DC (paraphrasing here). I'm not sure where this unofficial NWS measurement was taken.

I'm going to try to tromp out to a main street now to see if it's possible to get the dogs something that resembles a walk. They may not be happy with the ventured outing, but they're miserable without one.
Look at the forecast for Orlando on Friday. WOW!
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Very windy; cloudy with showers and thunderstormsView the Hour-by-Hour Forecast
Winds: N at 29mph
Wind Gusts: 50 mph

Max UV Index: Low (2)
Thunderstorm Probability: 40%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.82in
Amount of Rain: 0.82in

Amount of Snow: 0.0in
Hours of Precipitation: 5 Hrs
Hours of Rain: 5 Hrs
Hours of Daylight: 11.1 Hrs
Quoting Nimitz:
My sister-in-law, Short Gap, WV, about 20 miles south of Cumberland, MD.



I am EVER so glad to be in Florida!!!
Wow, are there 2 cars in this image?
Quoting Jeff9641:


What are you waiting for!


LOL! Hubby's job and his Dad are here. But between Spirit Airlines and/or Southwest...might consider being Weekend Warrior. :)

getting boots...gloves...cyl.
Highest By State:

Frostburg, MD: 36.0"
Lehew, WV: 34.0"
Howellsville, VA: 32.0"
Upper Strasburg, PA: 31.0"
National Park, NJ: 26.7"
Claymont, DE: 25.2"
Washington, DC: 20.0"
Greendale, OH: 14.8"

There have been several major building collapses in the DC metro area, amazing as can be!
Mudslides blast through homes, sweep cars down streets north of Los Angeles
http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_14349043
NCEP SNOWSTORM UPDATE BELOW, a whopping 38.3" of snow at Elkridge,MD, AMAZING TOTALS!!!!

Link
For all intensive purposes the Blizzard on 2/5-6, 2010 is over. All warnings in the DC metro have been cancelled and skies are beginning to clear across the area! Hope everyone in the DC/Baltimore and surrounding areas are safe inside off the roads!
While I put together a cool gif animation, here is the 2000-2006 graph (glad I did the exercise). Dead center, as it should be. If you can't predict what is already known, that is a definite problem.

I have made the exact same observation about NHC and hurricane cones and those that say they are "spot on." Well, yes, at that particular point. It is no different.

Don't get me wrong, NHC has greatly improved their track forecasts as evidenced by the tighter 3-day period cone, which is 67% certainty. The IPCC's cone, however, has been getting larger, not smaller.

Quoting Bordonaro:
For all intensive purposes the Blizzard on 2/5-6, 2010 is over. All warnings in the DC metro have been cancelled and skies are beginning to clear across the area! Hope everyone in the DC/Baltimore and surrounding areas are safe inside off the roads!


Just talked to my daughter on Fort Belvoir. They are safe inside, but no power for a couple of hours now. :(
Quoting PcolaDan:


Just talked to my daughter on Fort Belvoir. They are safe inside, but no power for a couple of hours now. :(


I hope they have a natural gas stove or a fireplace to keep warm. If not the DC area has opened warming stations around the area.

If you are not able to safely transport yourself to the shelter please call 301-609-3435 and personnel will attempt to reach you and provide transport to the shelter.
Haiti relief supplies stall in shipping limbo

In this Feb. 4, 2010 photo, stacks of boxed donated goods are stored at the Notre Dame d'Haiti Catholic
By JENNIFER KAY, Associated Press Writer %u2013 Sat Feb 6, 12:27 pm ET

MIAMI Cases of bottled water and cardboard boxes full of blue jeans, diapers and cans of tuna are piled a several feet high in Ruth Estriplet's living room. The charity worker doesn't want to stack anything above her head so that she can see what's in the boxes.
What she can't see is a way to get all the items to Haiti.

More than three weeks after the earthquake, donated goods are accumulating at small charities, sitting in shipping limbo because of costs and a complex web of transportation logistics. The heaps of donations are evidence that many people ignored the advice to just give cash.

Estriplet and other charities opted to collect items because it has a more personal touch. She is specifically gathering donations for her hometown of Carrefour, a devastated suburb of Port-au-Prince. But it's not clear how she's going to get the goods there.
"We're open to anyone who has an idea on how to do this, and we're taking any suggestions," said Estriplet.

Almost immediately after the quake hit, large organizations said money was the best way to help. It has never been easy to get supplies into Port-au-Prince, and the tremor has made things much worse.

Aid workers in Port-au-Prince have complained that red tape, transportation bottlenecks, corruption and a fear of violence has slowed the distribution of food, medicine and other supplies.

In Brooklyn, N.Y., pet groomer Perfect Paws is holding onto the sandals, baby aspirin and canned goods the business collected unless a traveling aid worker has room in a suitcase for them. The store posted a sign in a window soliciting donations, but will now sit on the items until the bottleneck eases, said owner Tom Vasquez.

Some charities have found ways around the logjam by piggybacking on a larger organization or sending shipments to other Haitian ports or the Dominican Republic. The Rev. Reginald Jean-Mary, pastor of Notre Dame d'Haiti in Miami, has given boxes of cooking oil, rice, water and beans to Food for the Poor, but each shipment costs the international relief charity $5,000 to transport to Haiti.
Cash donations buy much more, like flights into the Dominican Republic for doctors and nurses and trucks to drive over the border with stoves, cooking pots and ingredients for hot meals, Jean-Mary said.

"We plan on doing that more, until the ports can be open," he said. "The only way in I see right now is the Dominican Republic."
As of Wednesday, more than $644 million has been donated in the U.S. to major organizations engaged in Haiti relief efforts, according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy. More than a third of the money has gone to the American Red Cross.

Still, many Haitian-Americans say they want to make sure help gets directly to people who need it.

Asking just for cash can put off, for example, schoolchildren who want to send bandages to injured victims, said Hannah Belkovic of Massachusetts-based Partners in Development, which is working to get medical supplies and other in aid in Haiti.

"The connection is lost, somehow, in what they are actually participating in," she said.
The charity's staff stuff their suitcases with as many bandages, rolls of gauze and antibiotics as they can, while the bulk of their donated supplies await shipping.
Michelle Lacourciere, director of the San Francisco-based Sirona Cares Foundation, was collecting toothpaste, food, crutches, school supplies and travel-sized toiletries even before the earthquake struck. The items were supposed to ship out free through the Air Force, but the quake hit and now she's unsure exactly how she will get the more than 6,000 square feet of items to Haiti.

But she and the other charities are optimistic it will work out.

"I understand that no one else will take goods," Lacourciere said. "If I'm the only one who will take them, then I'm glad that I'm doing it."
___
Associated Press writers Verena Dobnik in New York and Jay Lindsay in Boston contributed to this report
It stopped snowing!
Quoting Bordonaro:


I hope they have a natural gas stove or a fireplace to keep warm. If not the DC area has opened warming stations around the area.

If you are not able to safely transport yourself to the shelter please call 301-609-3435 and personnel will attempt to reach you and provide transport to the shelter.


They'll be fine. Other sections of base have power and friend of hers in one of those areas if necessary.
New blog coming now...

Jeff Masters
Here's the GIF for 2001-2009.

Note: 2005 looks to disappear because it is the only increased trend year-to-year. It is right on the max likely IPCC line, which is another interesting obs, in terms of IPCC methodology. Just my thinking out loud on that one.