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Powerful Norbert takes aim at Mexico's Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2008

The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and no reliable computer models forecast tropical cyclone development over the next four days. The UKMET model continues to predict a tropical depression could spin up in the middle Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about five days from now. Climatology does not favor development in this region in October. A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing 5-7 days from now. The preferred genesis locations in the models are near the coast of Nicaragua, and near Puerto Rico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Norbert.

Hurricane Norbert takes aim at Baja
Hurricane Norbert has weakened since yesterday's impressive Category 4 showing, but still remains a dangerous major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Infrared satellite loops show a well-formed eye with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, but the cloud tops have warmed today, indicating that they are not as vigorous and do not extend as high into the atmosphere. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, and wind shear remains low, near 5 knots. The satellite appearance has not changed significantly in the past eight hours. Norbert may go through an eyewall replacement cycle today, where the main inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms. This process could cause a temporary weakening of the storm. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for this afternoon.

With the exception of the GFS, the computer models continue to be tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Saturday afternoon. The GFS solution of Norbert stalling off the coast and dissipating is unrealistic. Wind shear is about 5 knots over Norbert, and the waters are a warm 28.5°C. The waters along Norbert's path are unusually warm for this time of year, about 1-3° C above average (Figure 2). However, these warm waters do not extend very deep, and the total oceanic heat content is low. Once Norbert crosses Baja and enters the Gulf of California, total heat content increases, but Norbert will not be over these warm waters long enough to take advantage of the extra heat. As Norbert approaches Baja on Friday, wind shear is expected to increase to 15 knots and sea surface temperatures will cool to 27°C. These conditions will still support a major hurricane, and it is possible that Norbert will make landfall as a major hurricane. The latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model predicts landfall Saturday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. The latest HWRF model predicts a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The SHIPS models is weaker, putting Norbert at Category 1 strength with 95 mph winds. The official NHC forecast of a Category 2 hurricane at landfall looks like a reasonable compromise. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 30-35 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still pack a solid punch when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 6, 2008. Note the region being traversed by Norbert is 1-3 °C above average. Image credit: NOAA.

Baja hurricane history
Major hurricanes are rare on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, particularly as far north as Baja. Since record keeping began in 1949, only two Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have hit Baja (Figure 3). Hurricane Kiko of 1989 hit the east coast of Baja near Buenavista, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Kiko produced destructive winds of up to 110 mph (180 km/h) in Cabo San Lucas, and caused severe damage throughout the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Oliva of 1967 made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds farther north on the east coast of Baja, in a sparsely populated area. No major hurricanes have hit the west coast of Baja since 1949, so Norbert would be the first on record if it maintains Category 3 strength at landfall.


Figure 3. Tracks of major hurricanes affecting Mexico's Baja Peninsula between 1949-2007. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.


Thursday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Today's update from Paul Timmons (Presslord) on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:

While the devastating aftermath of hurricane Ike seems no longer to capture the interest of mainstream media, we all know that the needs continue. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City, TX, fire department has informed us that only 14 homes in that community (population: 8700) did not sustain ruinous water damage. Many families continue to live in tents in front of their homes, with ALL of their personal belongings piled in the yard awaiting removal.

Laura Cremans, Manager of the Churches of Christ distribution center in Bridge City tells us " Only one truck of supplies has come here since Ike made landfall. We are desperate here."

This is the list of specific needs that we are currently attaining and working to attain for the rural populations and the disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. We have worked closely with several local relief efforts as well as municipalities to identify these needs.


Undergarments
Socks
Men's & Women's Clothing (we already have a commitment for a substantial number of men's and women's pants)

Air Mattresses
Blankets/Sleeping bags
Tents
Insect repellent
All baby items
Formula (We have a commitment from Meade-Johnson to provide some of this)
Diapers
Rash cream
Wipes
Bottles


Our strategy is to focus on attaining as many of these items as possible through donations from manufacturers and distributors. In the last three and a half days, we have made several dozen contacts to this end and are beginning to get positive results; but we need your help.

If you have any contacts or influence which might facilitate us procuring the items listed above please contact us at presslord@aol.com or admin@stormjunkie.com. All your thoughts and ideas are good. The more input we have, the more impact we can have.This will help us successfully implement our strategy of expending donated funds primarily on transportation and logistics of moving donated goods. In this way, we can most effectively steward the donated funds in the most cost effective manner.

Moving forward...

Moving through October we are committed to adjusting our fund raising effort to leverage the grassroots enthusiasm and generosity generated by our Hurricane Ike relief work.  A more proactive approach will enhance our future effectiveness. We are asking you to consider committing to a monthly pledge amount.  The amount you pledge is less important then the consistency.  A dependable monthly donor base will allow us to strategically plan and prepare for the future and help us successfully execute those plans over the long term. 

Please give thoughtful, prayerful consideration to committing to a monthly pledge amount beginning November 1 and email your intentions to presslord@aol.com.

There is much work yet to be done in helping the victims of Ike. And there will certainly be other victims of other storms we can all serve. By continuing to work together as we have the last 3 1/2 weeks, we can have a profound positive impact on thousands of unserved, underserved, and forgotten people...

Also, please remember: we should all forward this information far and
wide...and frequently..

Thanks!!!!!


Figure 3. Bridge City, Texas, after Hurricane Ike. Image credit: Stormjunkie.

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Jose
Dr. Masters, hen you say Baja, do you mean Baja California Sur?

Thanks and regards.
Jose
Markets are crashing tonight
cv wave thinks it is early september. have a good morning everyone
not too much going on in the Cayman Islands now but watching everything with an eagle eye
Morning, all.

Quoting Jose:
Dr. Masters, hen you say Baja, do you mean Baja California Sur?

Thanks and regards.
Jose
I know I'm not the good doctor, but I do believe your answer is "yes". It looks like Norbert will still be a hurricane when it hits the Mexican coast.
twc said last night baha that there never has been a Oct hurricane hit in baja california
Now since its an invest, can 97L become a depression by monday?
Good Morning All

Is Florida still looking ok?
509. JRRP
510. IKE
97L looks like it goes out-to-sea.

Season looks over for 99% of the USA.
99% over doubt it
Quoting IKE:
97L looks like it goes out-to-sea.

Season looks over for 99% of the USA.


Ike for President!!
good morning. has anyone taken a look at this morning's gfs? OMG, holy crap for SF!
514. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
99% over doubt it


For the USA?...don't doubt it.

Looking at computer models...zilch for the USA. Getting too late in the season...these models go out to near Oct. 20th....some beyond then.

Yeah...it's just about finished for the USA.
515. IKE
Quoting KeyWestMan:
good morning. has anyone taken a look at this morning's gfs? OMG, holy crap for SF!


06Z GFS has nothing on there for south Florida....Link
516. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


Ike for President!!


I'll get the economy turned around!
To leftovers. Maybe looks 99% over to you but from where i am sitting in the central caribbean looks like its just getting started
518. IKE
INVEST 97L 25knots 1008mb

Quoting KeyWestMan:
good morning. has anyone taken a look at this morning's gfs? OMG, holy crap for SF!


I think KWM must have found some square grouper..
521. IKE
"""Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
458 am CDT Friday Oct 10 2008


Discussion...


Low clouds sliding in from the east and patchy fog once again to
start off. As with yesterday...fog to mix by middle-morning and
low clouds to lift and mix by mid-day. How fast the low clouds
lift and mix will again play into afternoon highs across the east.


More prevalently depicted than yesterday is the cut-off upper-low
over coastal Georgia being shoved back to the west by an over spilling
ridge. As such...have re-introduced pop chances from Saturday
night into Monday. As with the last two mornings...low clouds and
patchy fog will develop. With the blanketing low clouds...overnight
lows will run higher than the now cold season MOS guidance is
spitting out.


Still expecting the upper ridge to shove the dissipating low to
the west by Monday...leaving US virtually cloud free for a couple
days. Still expecting a middle to now late week front to sag down
before getting a push from a deepening trough beyond the forecast
period.
No changes to the far extended.""".............


That late week trough should just about put the final nail in the coffin for where I live, the northern gulf-coast.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Invest ... 97L
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
Present Satellite picture Invest 97L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDSNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
Present Satellite picture ... BOC
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC ... Western Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Now)
CMC ... Eastern Caribbean, PR (Hour 72)
CMC 00Z..
Morning W
525. JRRP
in orange color #2
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS DECREASED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
520 - panamasteve

ROFLMAO

Can't remember what year it was, but grouper the size of hay bales were washing up on the beaches from West Palm to Miami. Looked like a freighter load. Miami Herald had a photo of a guy trying to drag one across the beach to his car, he didn't make it, beach patrol got him!!!
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Morning, and morning to everyone else.
If I'm not mistaken, there are quite a few residents in Cabo. I certainly hope they take this Norbert character seriously. Even though he's down to a Cat 1, I still think about Ike "only" being a Cat 2 and all the destruction.
May the good people of the Baja stay safe.
Quoting KeyWestMan:
good morning. has anyone taken a look at this morning's gfs? OMG, holy crap for SF!
i know i was lookin at that!! hopin its a false alarm!
530. Mikla
Latest models:
Quoting BKeen12:
i know i was lookin at that!! hopin its a false alarm!


06Z NAM
watching 97L pretty close..can't help remembering how far south Ivan began to organise in 2004 and we had a direct hit as a cat 4-5 and it wasn't nice. been living in the cayman islands since 1973 and have never seen that kind of devastation before and hope to never see it again. grew up in south fla. and was used to hurricanes but nothing like that. was never scared before but sure am now.
who said out to sea?!?! I don't think so!! Tooooooo confident! These storms are unpredictable!
534. IKE
Quoting TheTracker08:
who said out to sea?!?! I don't think so!! Tooooooo confident! These storms are unpredictable!


06Z GFDL...out-to-sea


06Z HWRF...out-to-sea
Good morning all!

Quoting panamasteve:


I think KWM must have found some square grouper..


He was looking at 00Z GFS
Quoting IKE:



second peak around mid-october......I give the GOM states about a 20% chance of a hit thru end of nov 30th(over 6 weeks left!!!) and a chance of a hit anyhwere south of NC at 10%....the season is not over by a long shot...anyone say wilma??????
Good morning everyone. 97L has looks pretty large.
Quoting IKE:


06Z GFDL...out-to-sea


06Z HWRF...out-to-sea



the models due continue to change as systems get more orgainzed,and until there's a closed low to track my opinion is that the models only have a minuit idea on which way a system may go!!!!...the "out to sea" hook may not materlize until it moves to far west NOT to effect the US....
Quoting IKE:


For the USA?...don't doubt it.

Looking at computer models...zilch for the USA. Getting too late in the season...these models go out to near Oct. 20th....some beyond then.

Yeah...it's just about finished for the USA.

IKE...your my kind of guy !!!!!!!!!!
Crikey......take a good look.
It's a jumble of clouds....that's it!
Invest??
LMAO!!



Photobucket

And the Euro is not very interested in the Western Carib as per the 00Z!
545. IKE
97L looks fairly decent this morning and appears worthy of invest status.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Invest ... 97L
547. IKE
Quoting MissNadia:

IKE...your my kind of guy !!!!!!!!!!


Thanks!
548. IKE
Quoting IKE:
97L looks fairly decent this morning and appears worthy of invest status.


...decent banding features,but w/such a large circ.,it will probably take atleast 48 hrs to organize enough to be a TD..imo
550. IKE
97L....

97L has been proclaimed an Invest....that's it.
snore.............................

Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Invest ... 97L

What's going on in B.C. this morning?
Everyday the models flip flop back and forth as to the development of a Caribbean system. There's been no consistency.


Quoting IKE:
97L looks like it goes out-to-sea.

Season looks over for 99% of the USA.


When will you be the featured blogger?
Quoting MissNadia:

What's going on in B.C. this morning?


they say.. sunny and a high of 13C, I will believe it when and if the sun comes up.
That being said.. Vancouver 6 Calgary 0, the world is a nice place today
Quoting KeyWestMan:
good morning. has anyone taken a look at this morning's gfs? OMG, holy crap for SF!


JFV?????????????
Quoting sporteguy03:


When will you be the featured blogger?


Now thats funny :)
Canucks won their opener great night for Luc Bourbon, nice ceremony. Jim Hughson should of covered the game though.
Quoting sporteguy03:
Canucks won their opener great night for Luc Bourbon, nice ceremony. Jim Hughson should of covered the game though.


I have to admit. it was a good show.. I think they did an exceptional piece on that. The team sure showed it also.

As SWMBO'ed said.. they are just sucking us in with hope..again
GFS is looking at 2 weeks from now
(Oct 25-26) for a Florida impact.
That's a long ways out.
561. JRRP
-----------
06 GMT 10/10/08 10.0N 34.0W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 10/10/08 10.3N 34.7W 25 1008 Invest
I wake up this morning and what do I see, invest97L looking for me!
Captn' Jack Sparrow for President
RED TIDE - New Pass - Sarasota ;( thx for the info Stillwaiting!
Good morning! Just performed analysis on Invest 97L this morning and have created a graphic with my take. Enjoy.
Photobucket
Quoting surfmom:
Captn' Jack Sparrow for President

Capt'n J Morgan for drinks :)
I want the season to be over....but, it's not till the fat lady sings... and MJO is soon to visit
Captn' Morgan is good for drinks...but I'm more shallow... I'd rather Look at Captn' Jack.

Google-sponsored satellite sends first image

Google Earth is going to get much better now.
It's so frickin' cold where you are Orca!..... how can that be nice?... OK the SUN is shining, but I'd need to stuff my pockets w/ instant warmers.....and ALL the clothes you have to wear--
Quoting sporteguy03:


JFV?????????????

ahhh hummmmmm ; )
I don't know about Jack Sparrow, but I'm all for Capt. J Morgan!
Quoting surfmom:
Captn' Jack Sparrow for President


YES!!!
Quoting Orcasystems:

Capt'n J Morgan for drinks :)


HMMM..I'm liking this one

could use a drink after this week!
I believe that was Captain H. Morgan (Henry) One of my ancestors, privateer in the Caribbean and Governor of Jamaica. I wonder how they handled tropical weather back then?
Quoting fireflymom:
I believe that was Captain H. Morgan (Henry) One of my ancestors, privateer in the Caribbean and Governor of Jamaica. I wonder how they handled tropical weather back then?

Your correct..
It is named after the 17th-century Caribbean privateer from Wales, Sir Henry Morgan. Captain Morgan's slogan is "Got a little Captain in You?"
Quoting Orcasystems:
Google-sponsored satellite sends first image

Google Earth is going to get much better now.


That campus is only about 60 miles from me. It really is a sharp looking picture when you think it was taken from space.
FireflyMom -- lucky you!! clearly you come from good genetic stock!!!

Good pirate read THE REPUBLIC OF PIRATES..Being the True and Surprising Story of the Caribbean Pirates Colin Woodard.

A fascinating book, full of details of the lives of pirates who CHALLENGED the spread of the Empires
Quoting Orcasystems:

Your correct..
It is named after the 17th-century Caribbean privateer from Wales, Sir Henry Morgan. Captain Morgan's slogan is "Got a little Captain in You?"
I CAN'T play with this and keep my halo ..hun?
morning surfmom!!!!!,nice and dry yesterday evening for your sons polo!!!,when is his birthday,mine is the 12th and I have about 4 or 5 friends that have there b-days in the next 2 weeks...all I know is it is mighty cold up north in jan and feb.,and that explains alot of the sept. and oct b-days!!!!!
NYSE has just opened.
Quoting surfmom:
I CAN'T play with this and keep my halo ..hun?


Nope..and I know where your going to
584. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


When will you be the featured blogger?


LOL!
Quoting surfmom:
Captn' Jack Sparrow for President


Couldn't be worse than our current options.
587. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


JFV?????????????


Yeah...or else his clone.
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...or else his clone.
.........the mother knows!
589. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Dow Jones is down over 900 points poised to have first 10% drop in a while


This could be another black Friday. World economy is collapsing. I'm sure Osama is laughing in his cave.
Quoting Caffinehog:


Couldn't be worse than our current options.


At least we know what we are getting up front
Happy Friday morning everyone!

Just remember...with the market...it's only a paper loss unless you sell! :)

Don't panic.
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...or else his clone.


He is JFV I am sure of it.

I think it is just good to have JFV back.

Whether he is JFV or not, he is a good blogger.
We need some music to cheer up the mood of the blog this morning...any requests?
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning surfmom!!!!!,nice and dry yesterday evening for your sons polo!!!,when is his birthday,mine is the 12th and I have about 4 or 5 friends that have there b-days in the next 2 weeks...all I know is it is mighty cold up north in jan and feb.,and that explains alot of the sept. and oct b-days!!!!!
He had a terrific first game -- the weather was perfect for the horses - the blankets from under the saddle were barely wet -- so the cool off and low humidity were a blessing-- He's Oct. 19th, and a post-marathon training surprise LOL....put me out of racing...but he more then made up for it in joy and putting me on a surfboard 8 years later.
Glad you enjoyed those Mango's -- best crop since '04 & '05, got to wonder about the LaNina effect. Chickens have adjust to the change in lighting/season and the egg production is up.

My eggs are holding their value better then the dollar.
Foolish in reality! I really would love to know what is compelling people to say that Invest 97L is going to go out to sea? Too Confident
599. IKE
Quoting TheTracker08:
Foolish in reality! I really would love to know what is compelling people to say that Invest 97L is going to go out to sea? Too Confident


Mid-October.
Models.
Troughs moving off of the east coast.

97L will never make it to the United States.
The islands? Doubtful.
Dow Jones Industrials is rebounding again; now down about 230 points. Far better than down near 700 points earlier.
Theme music from Pirates of the Caribbean
This is a Tropical Chat Room. Not virtual wall street, we all know that the economy is crap at the moment!! I mean hello?!?!? stop being so damned negative, stop the wall street jargon!
Quoting IKE:


Mid-October.
Models.
Troughs moving off of the east coast.

97L will never make it to the United States.
The islands? Doubtful.


Ike,

If this hurricane season has taught everyone nothing else, it is to expect the unexpected and that Mother Nature knows no rules and always ignores climatology. Don't sound so confident until it happens. Never let your guard down.
Quoting BeanTech:
We need some music to cheer up the mood of the blog this morning...any requests?
ColdPlay
Does that wall street Low show up on google earth? I will find and read that Surfmom, would also vote for Captain Jack or Kinky Friedman over the current choices.. Weathering this financial storm will be more difficult for those who have lost their homes and cars due to IKE.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


the Dow Jones is still down over 900 points


Watching the numbers come in from CNN. Could you provide me with the link where you're getting your information from? Thanks.
thundercloud, that is impossible. trading is automatically suspended if 10% drop.
609. IKE
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Ike,

If this hurricane season has taught everyone nothing else, it is to expect the unexpected and that Mother Nature knows no rules and always ignores climatology. Don't sound so confident until it happens. Never let your guard down.


97L will never make it to the USA.

"Always ignores climatology"?
Thank you CCHSweatherman!! exactly whats on my mind!!
Quoting surfmom:
ColdPlay
Drop Kick Murphy
612. IKE
New model runs on 97L...out-to-sea....

Complete Refresh Blog
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IKE fine you win, im getting my degree in meteorology! the only thing that bothers me is that you say " its going out to sea" you honestly think you can just brush a strom off?!?! i dont think so
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
um look here

finance.yahoo.com

at one point it was down over 14%

at 1300 point drop


Well, somethings wrong with it...

It says right now 8324 and down 935... that would mean it closed at almost 9300 yesterday... it did not.

I would suggest a new source...
oh, and just so ya know!!! models are sometimes very wrong!!
8325 is approx 250 drop from yesterday
LOL... they heard me... it's fixed. :)
Quoting IKE:
New model runs on 97L...out-to-sea....



Apparently Hurricane Ike didn't teach you anything regarding computer model consensus.
621. IKE
Quoting TheTracker08:
IKE fine you win, im getting my degree in meteorology! the only thing that bothers me is that you say " its going out to sea" you honestly think you can just brush a strom off?!?! i dont think so


I won't lose a minutes worth of sleep over it tonight.

Yeah...I'm brushing it off.
Quoting IKE:


97L will never make it to the USA.

"Always ignores climatology"?


What about your namesake? How often does a storm that forms at 20N in the far eastern Atlantic hit Texas (much less the U.S.)?
577 - Google Satellite

"GeoEye-1's main client is the U.S. Government's mapping arm, The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency."

Ringggggggggg
Hello?
Is this CDS?
Yes, who is this?
This is NGIA, we noticed your license plate out in front of the Platinum Plus Club at 1:00 AM Sat night!!
No,no,no, that wasn't me Sir, really, my son in law was invited to a bachleor party that night and borrowed my SUV to take all the guys with him, I Swear!!!!
Uh huh, we're watching you RTLSNK.
624. IKE
Quoting MichaelSTL:


What about your namesake? How often does a storm that forms at 20N in the far eastern Atlantic hit Texas (much less the U.S.)?


Actually it formed at 17.6N and that was on September 1st. It's now October 10th...different ball game.
I guess it's "Bash Ike" day today...
look at the caribbean, the bay of campeche, what do you see? i see alot of concentreated batches of disturbed weather, 97 L is not alone
Ok, I am off for a bit.. I have enough cheap over the counter pharmaceuticals that I washed down with three cups of coffee..I am spinning and dizzy like a top.

Hmm and I have to go to work yet... sheesh, its going to be one of those days.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Ike,

If this hurricane season has taught everyone nothing else, it is to expect the unexpected and that Mother Nature knows no rules and always ignores climatology. Don't sound so confident until it happens. Never let your guard down.


cchs, a mesocale trough is expected to form near 60w and 40n. This trough will cause a weakness on the ridge, or even bisect it. Subsequently, 97L will move north along the ridge axis, and eventually northeast as it interacts with the trough.
ike, just saying my opinion, people are entitled to their own opinions. im not losing sleep tonight over it either, ya wanna know why?
Quoting futuremet:


cchs, a mesocale trough is expected to form near 60w and 40n. This trough will cause a weakness on the ridge, or even bisect it. Subsequently, 97L will move north along the ridge axis, and eventually northeast as it interacts with the trough.


I have seen that with the computer models this morning, but I have learned from storms like Ike not to take computer models as rule since things can quickly change. I never let my guard down until I see such a situation unfolding and occuring.
97L will likely go out to sea.
Quoting TheTracker08:
ike, just saying my opinion, people are entitled to their own opinions. im not losing sleep tonight over it either, ya wanna know why?

No
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I am off for a bit.. I have enough cheap over the counter pharmaceuticals that I washed down with three cups of coffee..I am spinning and dizzy like a top.

Hmm and I have to go to work yet... sheesh, its going to be one of those days.



Hey.. no fair...head start on the weekend.
Where is my margarita girl, damn it...
Quoting RTLSNK:
577 - Google Satellite

"GeoEye-1's main client is the U.S. Government's mapping arm, The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency."

Ringggggggggg
Hello?
Is this CDS?
Yes, who is this?
This is NGIA, we noticed your license plate out in front of the Platinum Plus Club at 1:00 AM Sat night!!
No,no,no, that wasn't me Sir, really, my son in law was invited to a bachleor party that night and borrowed my SUV to take all the guys with him, I Swear!!!!
Uh huh, we're watching you RTLSNK.
We have arrived to THE BRAVE NEW WORLD and I don't think it's good news
Quoting BeanTech:


Hey.. no fair...head start on the weekend.
Where is my margarita girl, damn it...


Bean who you calling a girl? Your silly.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I have seen that with the computer models this morning, but I have learned from storms like Ike not to take computer models as rule since things can quickly change. I never let my guard down until I see such a situation unfolding and occuring.


All the computer models unanimously agree that 97L will go out to sea.

Now, the tropical wave near the windward islands is a different story. If it develops, there is a chance it might not go out to sea. However, whether it does or not strongly depends on the trough's potency......Link
97L is a fish storm forescast, models in aggrement with that even thought I think have chancee to develop, western caribbean is the area to watch over the next couple of days.
Quoting IKE:


Actually it formed at 17.6N and that was on September 1st. It's now October 10th...different ball game.


Who you got in the Championship series Ike?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


the Dow Jones is still down over 900 points


lol I am an idiot when it comes to economy and politics.

what is NASDAQ, DAW, JONES?
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!
640thetracker -- hey what ever turns you on....don't think I wanna know what else your into P&T?
Quoting futuremet:


lol I am an idiot when it comes to economy and politics.

what is NASDAQ, DAW, JONES?


Dow Jones???
Quoting futuremet:


lol I am an idiot when it comes to economy and politics.

what is NASDAQ, DAW, JONES?



LOL people money, company stock markets do you have 401K???
"Troughs Potency" hummm I like that line
While watching 97L, I'm not taking my eyes off the carib... area around 12.5N/75W most interesting right now...
Quoting TheTracker08:
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!

Cat1.. I feel a slight breeze coming.. yup..there it is.. poof
P t. what is that?
I've gone pirate -- definitely prefer those bars of yellow. Cause the paper went out the window, but those little chunks are still buried treasure
orca, make fun of me, i dont care, ive crossed hundreds of people like that before, i will never change my opinion!
Quoting TheTracker08:
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!


Stormstruck at Epcot check it out.
BBL, have to drive "She who must be obeyed" to the foot Doctor!!
Quoting futuremet:


All the computer models unanimously agree that 97L will go out to sea.

Now, the tropical wave near the windward islands is a different story. If it develops, there is a chance it might not go out to sea. However, whether it does or not strongly depends on the trough's potency......Link


Quoting antonio28:
97L is a fish storm forescast, models in aggrement with that even thought I think have chancee to develop, western caribbean is the area to watch over the next couple of days.


Need I remind you both about model consensus. Just remember that the model consensus with Hurricane Ike had Ike hitting South Florida one day and just 24 hours later, the Gulf Coast. It ended up making landfall in Northern Texas, over one thousand miles from where it was originally forecasted by models to strike. That is why I have made such a staunch statement not to let your guard down just yet. Wait for the elements to unfold and the scenario to occur before letting your guards down.
653. IKE
Quoting TheTracker08:
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!


Maybe you should have lived right on the coast of SE Texas and you would have gotten you're wish.