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Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Edit: Removed origional post, host website can't handle the traffic.
she wobbled west again
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Beautiful.

She is indeed..
1004. Titoxd
Quoting LavosPhoenix:
The blog is moving quickly as expected given the situation, so hopefully I can get an answer. IIRC, Irene has only dropped about 15 mb since last night/early this morning, but does anyone have a list of winds and pressures since she became a hurricane or for the past 24 hours?


Irene running best track, from the NHC.
Quoting tropicalnewbee:
is it me or has she nto turned yet? I am in central florida brevard coast so the farther she tracks west the more interesting things will be for us. any help guys? thanks.


Models and forecast are sticking with the turn but it is getting closer than I care to see with each hour. I'm thinking TS force winds for us. Be prepared just in case and keep watching.
Quoting reedzone:


Thanks for the info :) Will be interesting to see what the models show then.


Is the HH going to sample the atmosphere out ahead of Irene agian?
...pinhole?
I haven't seen a 295 or 310 heading since 10:15 AM..not sure which storm you are looking at


Quoting ILwthrfan:
She's going to vary between 295 adn 310 around there until she gets her core well established and that ULL gets out of the way, until then she's gonna have a drunken walk up the Bahammas.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Telleconnections all point to a powerful hurricane moving up the east coast, this will be history in the making...lol
i bet jfv is on the beach twirling around wrap in teh shower curtain crying
Wish she would speed up at least..anyone on from the Exumas? Very concerned for the Bahamas.
1011. NEwxguy
fingers are getting tired poofing so many people.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i bet jfv is on the beach twirling around wrap in teh shower curtain crying


teh..priceless!
On a side note its cool to see Taz, Rita, Reed, Flood, and some others on here....I wish Ike (although we didnt always see eye to eye I still liked the guy) and Storm were back on here.

Where is Dewey and DestinJ?
1014. hamla
the weather channel says the northeast corridor from nj to new england will be upgraded to extreme damage from high damage stay tuned
1015. yoboi
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Beautiful.





printed that photo out will frame it thanks........
1016. RickWPB
I've read a number of comments here that Irene is still heading WNW. Even the NHC advisory at 2PM is calling the direction NW... and the NHC is slow to make a change in direction.

Quote:
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WobbleCon Level 5!!!!!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i bet jfv is on the beach twirling around wrap in teh shower curtain crying


Yup
1019. HarryMc
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Is the HH going to sample the atmosphere out ahead of Irene agian?


HH Plan for the day:

Link
Quoting VieraChris:


Models and forecast are sticking with the turn but it is getting closer than I care to see with each hour. I'm thinking TS force winds for us. Be prepared just in case and keep watching.


I read the same exact posts when Emily was heading in a westerly direction and was forecast to turn. Irene is going to turn.
1021. wpb
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Experimental 12Z FIM. It is one of the models being developed for the HFIP. Just showing it as a p o s s i b i l i t y


link
New computer models look like a shift more to the west? ut oh
1023. Ryuujin
Quoting RickWPB:
I've read a number of comments here that Irene is still heading WNW. Even the NHC advisory at 2PM is calling the direction NW... and the NHC is slow to make a change in direction.

Quote:
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


Thing is, is that she is really not. She is really heading between wnw and nw, and they just err on the side of caution. Her wobbles have been decidedly wnw.
Suggestion:

Do you think it's possible that Dr. Masters could
have it set up so that ONLY paid members would
see other paid members comments, and the non paid
members would only see other non paid members
comments? Hope you can understand what i'm saying.

Might stop alot of the trolling here!

Looks like another WNW wobble is occurring. Irene may go slightly south of the 8pm NHC position.
Quoting VieraChris:


Models and forecast are sticking with the turn but it is getting closer than I care to see with each hour. I'm thinking TS force winds for us. Be prepared just in case and keep watching.


believe me I am but I like the info I glean from this blog. quite a few knowledgeable ppl here. Rita posted that 77w is when we should really start to worry and another blogger said TS conditions bak in the forecast for central fl.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Grandpa, it's the trolls doing it. It get on my nerves sometimes and I don't see you doing anything wrong.


I think the whole karma thing needs to go. I personally think the blog should allow plus minus or report but it shouldn't contribute to some karma rating. Instead, each comment should stand on its own and a certain number of minuses auto removes it and reporting will alert admin and they can remove it or ban the user based on that. Beyond that, I think we can manage our personal preferences with the ignore list. The reason I say this is because there are many users who at times could become annoying (myself included) to some people but almost everyone on here, with a few exceptions, has something valuable to contribute to the discussion and I don't necessarily think it's a good idea to have certain people filtered out all the time based on the karma system. Just my thoughts...
Quoting nigel20:
This is a large and extremely large and dangerous storm, so people in Irene's path must take extreme caution.


Thanks boss.
Quoting hyperanthony:


Puerto Rico begs to differ.



Well discounting PR. I mean it's not going to hit the US East coast. Trust me on this.
Quoting wpb:
link


I removed it. The host website is having problems.
Link
Quoting presslord:
WobbleCon Level 5!!!!!!!
LMAO
Quoting RickWPB:
I've read a number of comments here that Irene is still heading WNW. Even the NHC advisory at 2PM is calling the direction NW... and the NHC is slow to make a change in direction.

Quote:
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


310 is not quite NW, but close (315)
Quoting RickWPB:
I've read a number of comments here that Irene is still heading WNW. Even the NHC advisory at 2PM is calling the direction NW... and the NHC is slow to make a change in direction.

Quote:
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


that is because it has averaged .4N to .5West...not quite WNW or NW...somewhere in between
Afternoon all! Irene is a monster, and 90L looks like it will become Jose.
1035. 7544
we got another wobble west
1036. Ryuujin
Like I said in another post, if you want to get rid of 90% of the trolls make it a mandatory 24-48 hour wait for approval. That will keep most of the trolls away
no recon?
Quoting portcharlotte:
I haven't seen a 295 or 310 heading since 10:15 AM..not sure which storm you are looking at




??? What do you have it moving? NHC has it at 310 as of right now. I just assumed all the jogs would be less down around 300 and 295, which was its previous heading.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon all! Irene is a monster, and 90L looks like it will become Jose.


Jose Wales? Sorry couldnt help it.
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/75.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
1041. Levi32
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.

Quoting hurricanejunky:


I think the whole karma thing needs to go.


Agreed. It's as useless as a screen door on a submarine.
So the models have nudged to the west a little bit but are still waaaaaaay away from South Florida. I'm thinking I only need to run around screaming, arms flailing for about thirty seoonds now and I should be good.
Quoting muddertracker:


teh..priceless!


What teh heck are you talking about sir ^_^
???????????????????????

Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:



Well discounting PR. I mean it's not going to hit the US East coast. Trust me on this.
And all the other islands she is crossing now and tomorrow....Wake up son.
If someone is in Raleigh, would they need to be concerned by the current setup we're seeing for Irene's path? I know it's important for all of the coast to watch, just was not sure about those a little further in. Clearly I'm not there but thinking of another who is.
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:



Well discounting PR. I mean it's not going to hit the US East coast. Trust me on this.


You got a magic ball?
Quoting KNAStorms92:
...pinhole?


Exactly what im thinking, Irene is probably strengthening a bit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon all! Irene is a monster, and 90L looks like it will become Jose.


Very true. To my knowledge Jose (if it forms)shouldn't be a problem for anyone. At the moment anyways...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/75.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM


Nice....very good info. Looks like a west shift on the last few frames but likely another jog N and then west so really more of a WNW.
Quoting nigel20:
This is a large and extremely large and dangerous storm, so people in Irene's path must take extreme caution.

Well duh
1052. Jax82
I think her inner eyewall is collapsing, it does look like a pinhole now.
Quoting Ryuujin:
Like I said in another post, if you want to get rid of 90% of the trolls make it a mandatory 24-48 hour wait for approval. That will keep most of the trolls away


It's already 24. Only thing that will keep them away is everyone elses behavior.
933mb??

Levi there is no way that 90L makes it to the Caribbean with a negative NAO right?
Don't forget!!! Jeff, Shaun, Tim...and the Ga Tech chick will be on the radio @ 4:30pm EDT
Quoting Abacosurf:
And all the other islands she is crossing now and tomorrow....Wake up son.


I mean the CONUS there. It's not going to hit that. You know what I meant.
1058. nigel20
Quoting philliesrock:
Looks like another WNW wobble is occurring. Irene may go slightly south of the 8pm NHC position.


Looks to still be moving ever so slightly to the left of the trop forecast points
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.



They just upped our chances for storms here in central IL for today associated with the shortwave the NE is praying to come save the day. Looks to be trending slightly stronger than the last 12 hr model run.

Quoting Levi32:
Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.


Strongly disagree.
why is there no recon party in are hurricane
1063. Levi32
Gotta love how the 12z CMC seemingly magically turns Irene parallel to the SE US coast at the last second, avoiding a direct landfall in the Carolinas. That run is too close for comfort.
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.



Uuuumm, yeah they do. My family is in RI and CT and they are watching the storm closely. Don't know why a statement like that would be made, kinda ignorant to do.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You got a magic ball?


18z Models show this trend for over 24 hours now.
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.



They don't, I'm sure my cousins in NJ don't have a clue either. I think they'll get their wakeup call in a big way when the winds start blowing
i bet everyone on the e. coast wishes this would hurry up and be done with. lol! i'm sure they are thinking " if its comming just hurry up and come, and if its not just hurry up and pass" all this anticipation is killing me, i can only imagine how they feel. waiting to make a decision on katrina was unbearable and katrina came way faster. there wasn't a week or more of but clinching. lol! wish the best for all on e. coast. hope it just goes away.
1068. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.



That is the second or third time that it has done that and the Euro is pretty solid. Btw, Levi did you see the WV of the nearest shortwave? It has really flattened out e-w, IMO.
Quoting Tazmanian:
no recon?


NOAA P3 is scheduled to takeoff at 4:00PM EDT. The Gulfstream IV is currently up releasing dropsondes.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Agreed. It's as useless as a screen door on a submarine.


Just need a little Flex Seal...

1071. Levi32
Quoting RitaEvac:
933mb??



Likely overdone, but illustrates the danger for something as strong as a Cat 2 when it's in that position.
Hickory,NC....should they be worried?
Earl was a wobbly storm in this position last year, but Irene got him beat:) never seen a storm wobble so wide and stairstep so much
1074. nigel20
Quoting waterskiman:

Well duh

I said that because some are underestimating is power.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/75.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM


Irene riding the stairmaster!!!
1076. Jax82
Quoting Levi32:
Gotta love how the 12z CMC seemingly magically turns Irene parallel to the SE US coast at the last second, avoiding a direct landfall in the Carolinas. That run is too close for comfort.


Did ya notice the cyclone right to the East of Irene on that run too? I thought that was interesting.
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


18z Models show this trend for over 24 hours now.


18z isn't even out yet.
The 12z ECMWF, the most reliable global model continues to show an east coast hit.
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
If someone is in Raleigh, would they need to be concerned by the current setup we're seeing for Irene's path? I know it's important for all of the coast to watch, just was not sure about those a little further in. Clearly I'm not there but thinking of another who is.


No, not with the current path. May not even get any rain out of it.
Quoting Levi32:
Gotta love how the 12z CMC seemingly magically turns Irene parallel to the SE US coast at the last second, avoiding a direct landfall in the Carolinas. That run is too close for comfort.


Yeah just seen that...but I think the CMC has always been a little more of the east predicting models. Not as extreme but always east
Quoting tropicalnewbee:


believe me I am but I like the info I glean from this blog. quite a few knowledgeable ppl here. Rita posted that 77w is when we should really start to worry and another blogger said TS conditions bak in the forecast for central fl.


I would be surprised at this point if we do not see at least a small period of sustained TS force winds in Brevard Thursday evening/Friday early morning. TS force winds out 205 from the center at 2PM advisory and Irene could intensify by then.

Lots of great people with solid info here. Several nut jobs as well! :D
1081. HarryMc
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.



You're mostly right Levi. There was a little hype last night but this morning Boston area was hearing "trending east on every advisory", now it is like the initial shock is over and will take a slap to the face or something dramatic to really energize folks.
I just have to state this. NOAA is forecasting a CAT 2 Hurricane in Long Island at 100 MPH. Now even if the storm spares much of NYC and Long Island because of wind shift that would result in a smaller wind damage area. The area affected by STORM SURGE could be far worse. Even if you are getting a CAt1-2 storm that is weakening as the storm weakens from a CAT 3-4 it will p[ush the water in it's storm surge onto shore.

We saw this with HURRICANE KATRINA. She mad landfall as a CAT 3 but brought with her a 30 FT storm surge which was CAT 5 storm surge.
me think <--------------- alot
This is a version of the GFS with a different initialization scheme, on track to replace the current GFS by next summer. It has consistently performed better than the op GFS. It has also been west of all the other models and very Euro-like in the 1 day I've been following it.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


18z isn't even out yet.
The 12z ECMWF, the most reliable global model continues to show an east coast hit.


I saw someone post the 18z TVCN.
Quoting Hernando44:
Suggestion:

Do you think it's possible that Dr. Masters could
have it set up so that ONLY paid members would
see other paid members comments, and the non paid
members would only see other non paid members
comments? Hope you can understand what i'm saying.

Might stop alot of the trolling here!




There are a lot of things like that which would help make the experience better for *members* of the blog (i.e. limit a member's number of post in 24 hours, paid posting privileges, etc.) However, that would be counter-productive to what matters to wunderground: High page view stats driving demand to advertise on wunderground. Inotherwords, it's all about advertiser's money into the coffers of wunderground.
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.


This is not looking good at all for the megalopolis......
Hurricane Irene looking scary now. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a Cat 4 by tonight. Still moving NW with slight jogs here and there. We may see some tropical storm gust here in Florida. Will it cause the NHC to issue tropical storm warnings? Well they already have the marine warnings. But right now it doesnt look like it. Though, anything could change and we may see a warning. But the concern for major damage lies up north in the Carolinas and New England. Not looking good for them...
1089. NEwxguy
Trust me we care what's going on with Irene,this has caught our attention big time,some are slow to react,but we are going to be ready,besides we Jim Cantore coming to RI, what more do we need?
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.





Roger that, Levi. Not too thrilled with that track myself here in SE VA - but definitely much worse for the upper mid atlantic and NE.
1091. Levi32
Folks are used to storms weakening as they brush New England, and Irene will be no exception, but people don't realize that a Cat 1 in New England can do the same amount of total damage that a Cat 3 could do to states farther south, simply because of the extreme population density. It's a big deal, and Irene could even be a Cat 2 in New England, which becomes a disaster. It's not like it hasn't happened before with storms from history.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NOAA P3 is scheduled to takeoff at 4:00PM EDT. The Gulfstream IV is currently up releasing dropsondes.



is that the same noaaa from this AM and last night?
1093. oakland
Quoting ecupirate:


Just need a little Flex Seal...



LOL
Good afternoon.

It looks like Irene could be on the verge of another round of deepening with the pressure down to 954 mbs.

Sub 950 becomes very serious business.
Quoting MidwestGuy:
me think <--------------- alot


Hush! Don't even think that!
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hickory,NC....should they be worried?


Not a bit, with the current NHC track.
What would a direct hit cat 4 do to cape hatteras..?
Notice this guy doesn't put his feet on the screen cover? cuz the bottom would fall out on him, just like the bottom gonna fall out in the NE with everybody's pants down

Thanks DontAnnoyMe
Ok Im gone. Peace out.
1101. CHinFL
Quoting Jax82:
I think her inner eyewall is collapsing, it does look like a pinhole now.

What factors determine when an eye wall will collapse and do they re-build at a consistent size or does it vary a lot?
Thanks
1102. Ryuujin
Quoting newportrinative:


Uuuumm, yeah they do. My family is in RI and CT and they are watching the storm closely. Don't know why a statement like that would be made.


Because probably 70% of the New York/Boston/DC metro area aren't worried about it.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's already 24. Only thing that will keep them away is everyone elses behavior.


Or just make it a paid only blog. Heck, the $10 annual sub fee is less than a buck a month!
Levi - friends and family in the boston area. Given your video update, are Thursday's models still the ones to wait for?
Already gave them the heads up, so they are aware and preparing.
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
What would a direct hit cat 4 do to cape hatteras..?





you dont want too no
I think it's been said before, but for what it's worth...storms can "step" in their advancement. SO it looks like they wobble a bit west, and then wobble a bit north.....it's not always an even NW movement. Your eyes "see" it wobbling only in one direction, but when you watch every second, you won't get the true picture. Don't watch it so closely. Wait and watch the trend of it's track.
1108. Titoxd
Quoting Levi32:
Gotta love how the 12z CMC seemingly magically turns Irene parallel to the SE US coast at the last second, avoiding a direct landfall in the Carolinas. That run is too close for comfort.


Yeah, that's not going to happen. We all know that the Canadian model tends to have a lot of spurious cyclogenesis, and that's causing it to overestimate the influence 98L will have on Irene.
Levi:

What should people in western Massachusetts, western New Hampshire, and Vermont expect? Tropical Storm conditions? TIA
Remember this blog is 12 hrs ahead of the media, what we've been seeing this morning and up to now will be on the 10-11 o clock news tonight.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Trust me we care what's going on with Irene,this has caught our attention big time,some are slow to react,but we are going to be ready,besides we Jim Cantore coming to RI, what more do we need?


"Jim Cantore here on top of the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier. The wind is so strong I can barely stan..."

"Jim? Jim are you there??" Ok, back to Joe in the studio for a storm center update!"
Quoting CybrTeddy:


18z isn't even out yet.
The 12z ECMWF, the most reliable global model continues to show an east coast hit.
WOW!!

Been out in a boat all day.... Looks like the models have trended slightly west....is that true?

I was hoping she would clear east of Abaco but that does not look to be the case. Yikes.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon.

It looks like Irene could be on the verge of another round of deepening with the pressure down to 954 mbs.

Sub 950 becomes very serious business.


Everything she did today was during diurnal minimum, tonight she will get her chance at anything she wants.

CAT 4 with 930 mb is not at all out of the question and NHC has it becoming a "weak" 4.
If Irene were farther north right now, she would probably be in the same location as the upper low offshore of the Carolinas. In other words, if the steering currents didn't change, Irene would most likely end up where the upper low is currently. However, since the steering is going to keep changing as the trof approaches from the west and the high breaks down to the east, Irene's path will be farther east than the upper low as the steering currents are basically the same all the way up to 200mb. I think that gives us a good clue as to where Irene will eventually go.

Quoting Levi32:
Folks are used to storms weakening as they brush New England, and Irene will be no exception, but people don't realize that a Cat 1 in New England can do the same amount of total damage that a Cat 3 could do to states farther south, simply because of the extreme population density. It's a big deal, and Irene could even be a Cat 2 in New England, which becomes a disaster. It's not like it hasn't happened before with storms from history.


Jeez, people in NE are aware of the dangers of a CAT 1 or 2 Levi. This isn't the dark ages. In every scenario there will be those that do or don't take a storm seriously.
1116. Levi32
The problem is the 3rd trough that comes around as Irene is coming towards the outer banks. See where it is? It's very far to the north, and the jetstream is over Canada. That means the storm will want to come north and phase with the trough as the ridge to the east of it remains bulky. The center of the ridge is due east of Virginia, which implies a track that doesn't curve much until it's up into Long Island.

12z GFS 72-hour 500mb:

Quoting Tazmanian:





you dont want too no


Hatteras and ocracoke would be "bare" islands and we would have a few new inlets...
Quoting sarahjola:
i bet everyone on the e. coast wishes this would hurry up and be done with. lol! i'm sure they are thinking " if its comming just hurry up and come, and if its not just hurry up and pass" all this anticipation is killing me, i can only imagine how they feel. waiting to make a decision on katrina was unbearable and katrina came way faster. there wasn't a week or more of but clinching. lol! wish the best for all on e. coast. hope it just goes away.


+100 just get past my latitude so I can get on with life and pray for those North of me!
1119. DVG
It seems to me that the low in Ontario has gone as far south as it's going to. It appears to be turning to the NE. The trailing end of it's tail appears to be flattenning. The low off Ga is holding it's own, so far. The 950-969 mb steering has the Tx high and Atlantic high almost pinching off near SC.

No idea if this means anything different or not.
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Heading out to sea. Trust me! No one in the USA is going to be impacted with Irene.
Don't know if this was addressed already, but there has been a fatality in the U.S. caused by Irene. Someone drowned in Puerto Rico as a result of weather.
i've noticed a slight flattening on the northern bands of irene. is this the sign that the bands are reaching the high? thanks!
the last 3 frames have been almost due west..just a tad north of that
1123. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:
Levi - friends and family in the boston area. Given your video update, are Thursday's models still the ones to wait for?
Already gave them the heads up, so they are aware and preparing.


Every model set between now and landfall will get successively more accurate, so there's not really a specific set to be looking for. Tonight's 0z runs will likely again have fresh recon data in them from the G-IV plane. Friday will probably be the day that we start to seal the deal with Irene in terms of her track up the eastern seaboard.
Quoting AegirsGal:
Don't know if this was addressed already, but there has been a fatality in the U.S. caused by Irene. Someone drowned in Puerto Rico as a result of weather.


Oh here we go again...I predict this comment page is heading west for 3 pages discussing the PR territorial zone...
Quoting Jax82:
Irene is currently over these islands.
The eye is moving towards the next island up, Long Island, now. Initial reports from the South of Acklins beginning to come in.

I'm updating my blog as I get new information about local conditions, so you can check there for details.
Quoting Levi32:
The problem is the 3rd trough that comes around as Irene is coming towards the outer banks. See where it is? It's very far to the north, and the jetstream is over Canada. That means the storm will want to come north and phase with the trough as the ridge to the east of it remains bulky. The center of the ridge is due east of Virginia, which implies a track that doesn't curve much until it's up into Long Island.

12z GFS 72-hour 500mb:



Levi - friends and family in Long Island and in the Boston area. Given the statements in your video update, are thursday's runs still the ones to wait for, or is their enough of a pattern change to believe that it most likely will end up in the NE? Sorry if this is a repeat, and you have answered already - blog is moving fast.
Quoting MississippiWx:
If Irene were farther north right now, she would probably be in the same location as the upper low offshore of the Carolinas. In other words, if the steering currents didn't change, Irene would most likely end up where the upper low is currently. However, since the steering is going to keep changing as the trof approaches from the west and the high breaks down to the east, Irene's path will be farther east than the upper low as the steering currents are basically the same all the way up to 200mb. I think that gives us a good clue as to where Irene will eventually go.



But the trough looks to be flattening out some, so that may not be an accurate depiction of where she will end up.
1128. Thaale
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro is back to a NNE track across Hatteras and then right into Long Island, passing very close to the Jersey coast. This is an extremely bad storm track, so bad that folks probably don't even have a clue yet in New England. If this comes to pass, it would be worse than a direct hit on the Carolinas as a Cat 4.

Not meaning to hype, but I get the feeling folks in New England don't even care about Irene much right now.


I've talked to three people in Boston today and they were all aware of the Irene situation and her being pointed right at them. I'm just not sure they have any idea of what preps to make.
NHC is not always right. They had Katrina landing in the middle of the Florida panhandle.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_grap hics.shtml
1130. Levi32
Quoting newportrinative:


Jeez, people in NE are aware of the dangers of a CAT 1 or 2 Levi. This isn't the dark ages. In every scenario there will be those that do or don't take a storm seriously.


Well obviously people like you on a website like this are going to care. I've just been hearing a lot on TV about how people are accusing the media of overhyping this storm and that it won't be a big deal. It's been a while since New England has had a bad storm. The last one to really roar through there was Floyd 12 years ago, and the bigger storms are buried even farther down in history. I guess I'm just making sure the concern is voiced here, although as I said, most of you here already know, which is why you're here.
Quoting Levi32:
Folks are used to storms weakening as they brush New England, and Irene will be no exception, but people don't realize that a Cat 1 in New England can do the same amount of total damage that a Cat 3 could do to states farther south, simply because of the extreme population density. It's a big deal, and Irene could even be a Cat 2 in New England, which becomes a disaster. It's not like it hasn't happened before with storms from history.
That and they don't have nearly as many regular wind events exceeding ~40 mph as the south. Lots of tree limbs and trees that haven't been as regularly tested, for the most part.

(Yes, I know there are exceptions, such as Mt Washington.)
On Irene's current path, how far onshore would Irene's tropical storm force winds come ashore NC?
1133. JeffM
I was just in Nags Head on Friday. First time to the OBX. If the track holds, it may not look the same as it did last weekend.
Quoting TropicalXprt:


Oh here we go again...I predict this comment page is heading west for 3 pages discussing the PR territorial zone...
If you are going to quote me, have the decency to keep it in context. I was responding to another post.
Everytime someone feels the need to announce to everyone that they *poofed* someone, I in turn *poof* the *poofer*.

Wait, did I just...

*poofs self*
fyi:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1933Z WED AUG 24 2011


GOES E RSO EXTENSION...
GOES E RSO HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO MON 29/12Z
IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING HCN IRENE ALL ALONG THE EAST
COAST EVEN TO PROJECTED LANDFALL.


$$
Looks like 90L could be a long tracking and powerful system too, its already quite massive.


The computer model tracks are ridiculous, there is no consensus at all. It could go North ASAP or go into the Caribbean.


Irene continues to be NE US bound though, with a possible landfall in the outerbanks. Conditions in the outmost counties of Virginia like Virgina Beach could experience conditions similar if not worse than Isabel.
Quoting Levi32:


Every model set between now and landfall will get successively more accurate, so there's not really a specific set to be looking for. Tonight's 0z runs will likely again have fresh recon data in them from the G-IV plane. Friday will probably be the day that we start to seal the deal with Irene in terms of her track up the eastern seaboard.


Thanks - just Friday may be a bit too late for some of them to get out if needed.
1140. Levi32
The eye of Irene continues to undergo trochoidal oscillations, which is the "stair-steeping" effect people talk about. The overall motion remains northwest, with short-term wobbles ranging from west to north.
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IN ADDITION TO IRENE INTENSITY IN GUIDANCE...ONE OF THE LARGEST
REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE
EXACT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ENTERING WESTERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY DOWN
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY DAY 3/SAT AND PICK UP IRENE. THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NEARLY CONVERGED WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE
GFS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...THUS
ACCELERATING IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND
BEYOND MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY WITH THE MORE UNCERTAIN HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW IS TO BE
EXPECTED...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF 4-CYCLE LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS
SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHT VARIABILITIES AVERAGING 50 TO 70 DECAMETERS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIFFERING
INFLUENCES ON IRENE.

1142. Gorty
TWC has put all of southern New England in the extreme threat level LOL.
1143. Jax82
Quoting BahaHurican:
The eye is moving towards the next island up, Long Island, now. Initial reports from the South of Acklins beginning to come in.

I'm updating my blog as I get new information about local conditions, so you can check there for details.


Cant believe anyone would ride out the cane on Crooked island, that had to be a wild ride.
They've been officially warned!


FEMA To New England: Be Ready For Irene
Quoting notabubba:


"Jim Cantore here on top of the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier. The wind is so strong I can barely stan..."

"Jim? Jim are you there??" Ok, back to Joe in the studio for a storm center update!"


funny....
Quoting MississippiWx:


I predict an eyewall replacement cycle very soon.
Quoting kilgores97:


But the trough looks to be flattening out some, so that may not be an accurate depiction of where she will end up.


The trof is going to have its effects. It's not going to magically disappear. However, it will lift out to the north eventually and will probably leave a path just east or right on top of the Outer Banks.
most likely irene will end up west of the next forcasted point...not set in stone yet tho
1149. Buhdog
GREAT SEEING THE OLDTIMERS TODAY! Irene still dub-steppin all the way up the islands I see. She is acting like a Slinky going uphill if that were possible! I am calling 945 mb by 11pm tonight!



Nice pinhole eye on satellite imagery. Yeah, I said it.
1151. Bayside
Quoting sarahjola:
i bet everyone on the e. coast wishes this would hurry up and be done with. lol! i'm sure they are thinking " if its comming just hurry up and come, and if its not just hurry up and pass" all this anticipation is killing me, i can only imagine how they feel. waiting to make a decision on katrina was unbearable and katrina came way faster. there wasn't a week or more of but clinching. lol! wish the best for all on e. coast. hope it just goes away.


It's very unnerving... this morning it was trending more east and looked like it would clear us just barely... now all bets are off again...
1152. WxLogic
18Z NAM @24hr 500MB:

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
They've been officially warned!


FEMA To New England: Be Ready For Irene


Talk about DOOM...
Has anyone compared its current location to the forecast NHC made 2 days ago? I'd like to do that, but don't know. Or compared the current forecast to the forecast 2 days ago. Both ideas are interesting.
Quoting NJcat3cane:
the last 3 frames have been almost due west..just a tad north of that


Its a wobble to the west with convection blowing up on her north side, overall movement is NW
1156. SLU
Damage reports coming from the Bahamas.
1157. JonClaw
Quoting Gorty:
TWC has put all of southern New England in the extreme threat level LOL.


Has TWC gotten THAT bad since I stopped watching it years ago?
1158. stexram
Quoting Abacosurf:
WOW!!

Been out in a boat all day.... Looks like the models have trended slightly west....is that true?

I was hoping she would clear east of Abaco but that does not look to be the case. Yikes.


Lets hope nippers makes it through without too much damage.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I predict an eyewall replacement cycle very soon.


Here eye wall hasn't been closed for very long (assuming that it's finally closed). I doubt we have an ERC already.

Beautiful hurricane...

1138. CybrTeddy

That model plot shows the tracks of three storms.
That soil moisture map if full of crap, the ground is so saturated here in Central Florida that water is flowing out of open fields. Many spots have had over 10 inches this month and Ive had 15, we've only had 5 days out of the whole month without rain as well. Its acting like we are dry. Yeah, right.

Anyways though, I'm worried if Irene tracks into New England, and I'm most worried about the flooding potential more than anything.
1162. wpb
Quoting JonClaw:


Has TWC gotten THAT bad since I stopped watching it years ago?
un watchable x1000000
1163. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


Thanks - just Friday may be a bit too late for some of them to get out if needed.


Well on the current NHC track, Friday morning puts the storm east of Florida and gives New England 48 hours until landfall there.

It should be noted that the storm is currently moving faster than forecast, and if that continues, the timetable may be bumped up a bit.
1164. HiWay
Quoting newportrinative:


Jeez, people in NE are aware of the dangers of a CAT 1 or 2 Levi. This isn't the dark ages. In every scenario there will be those that do or don't take a storm seriously.


This is one the largest wind fields in recent history to potentially make landfall in NE. With the large size we will have a much larger surge than the usual smaller storms that make it up there. There is also the fact that as Dr. Masters mentioned the much warmer than average waters farther north. The usual fast deterioration of the storm in the NE waters won't be quite as fast unfortunately.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I predict an eyewall replacement cycle very soon.
Indeed.

1166. Gorty
Quoting JonClaw:


Has TWC gotten THAT bad since I stopped watching it years ago?


Maybe they are onto something... they do have a former NHC hurricane specialist there.
Quoting notabubba:


"Jim Cantore here on top of the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier. The wind is so strong I can barely stan..."

"Jim? Jim are you there??" Ok, back to Joe in the studio for a storm center update!"
I think you meant:
" We'll be back in 2 hours after these 48 commercials interspersed with 12 minutes of a documentary movie".
Quoting Ryuujin:


Because probably 70% of the New York/Boston/DC metro area aren't worried about it.


I don't believe that at all.
1169. snotly
category 3 winds will go over Long Island.
Quoting MississippiWx:
If Irene were farther north right now, she would probably be in the same location as the upper low offshore of the Carolinas. In other words, if the steering currents didn't change, Irene would most likely end up where the upper low is currently. However, since the steering is going to keep changing as the trof approaches from the west and the high breaks down to the east, Irene's path will be farther east than the upper low as the steering currents are basically the same all the way up to 200mb. I think that gives us a good clue as to where Irene will eventually go.

What you say here indicates that they she'll continue to trend east which is a good thing for people on the coast. I hope that's what happens.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
They've been officially warned!


FEMA To New England: Be Ready For Irene


Far more frightening than Irene...
1172. wpb
Quoting atmoaggie:
I think you meant:
" We'll be back in 2 hours after these 48 commercials interspersed with 12 minutes of a documentary movie".
y would anyone advertise on the twc nobody watches
Quoting Levi32:


Well on the current NHC track, Friday morning puts the storm east of Florida and gives New England 48 hours until landfall there.

It should be noted that the storm is currently moving faster than forecast, and if that continues, the timetable may be bumped up a bit.


::sigh:: Although its the truth, not exactly what I wanted to hear from you. Thanks!
Quoting wpb:
y would anyone advertise on the twc nobody watches


What are you talking about? Millions to Billions of people watch the Weather Channel.
1175. snotly
Quoting snotly:
category 3 winds will go over Long Island.


within the next two hours!!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Here eye wall hasn't been closed for very long (assuming that it's finally closed). I doubt we have an ERC already.

Beautiful hurricane...



Been closed long enough to undergo an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, lol.

Quoting presslord:


Far more frightening than Irene...


I will have to disagree with you on that with Craig Fugate at the helm. He was an excellent head of Florida's Emergency Management. I know you disagree.
Levi, there is no way that 90L makes it to the Caribbean with a negative NAO right?
The people would never get educated if scientists only talked to scientists.
Quoting chicagowatcher:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


We would also need Lefty, he may be lurking, was last year.



I miss lefty. Glad to see StormJunkie is still on from time to time.
So do I. So am I.

We did have a good core of bloggers here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Been closed long enough to undergo an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, lol.



Maybe so...We'll see.
Quoting Gorty:
TWC has put all of southern New England in the extreme threat level LOL.


RATINGS...

Thats all they really care about.
I live in Indiana, there is a trough that is suppose to come thru Indiana around 1600 to 2400hrs, folks it's no where near Indianapolis,
The reason I mention this, is suppose to be the guiding feature that takes Hurricane Irene up the east coast,
Here is what I have to say, with the delay of the trough, this will have an impact on the track of Irene.
The forward speed of Irene will also have an effect on the track.The storm is 429 miles south south east of Miami Fl. the speed is 12 MPH or 35 hours away from landfall, the later the trough comes the further west the storm travels, which changes everything.
All need to watch this trough and it's timing to see if the models are correct.
Quoting atmoaggie:
That and they don't have nearly as many regular wind events exceeding ~40 mph as the south. Lots of tree limbs and trees that haven't been as regularly tested, for the most part.

(Yes, I know there are exceptions, such as Mt Washington.)


And Cape Cod...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What are you talking about? Millions to Billions of people watch the Weather Channel.


Billions? Really? That would mean over 600 million non-Americans actually care about the US weather enough to install a satellite which will receive TWC's signal. Try again.
Irene is developing a good or decent southern/equatorward outflow channel/inflow spiral banding features finally, which have been absent her entire life span. Right now outflow is improving in all quadrants and dry air and shear is slowly loosening its grip on her. Category four or five potential is within reach.
Irene has definitely picked up forward momentum.
Hey all. Up at FSU now. Had an interesting ride up. I drove by a mini vortex in a feild next to I-75. The sucker tried to bring me in and nugded my car to the right a few inches. Never seen anything tornadic in person so it was quite an interesting experience.
EWRC occuring now
based upon my experience in watching hurricanes. The "Pin Hole" eye that Irene has now is the most dangerous eye since they normally come with rapid intensification. NOAA stated in hurricane Wilma that the hurricane had the dreaded pin hole eye. We remember Wilma.
1191. JeffM
Cat 1-2 winds on the upper EC is going to cause major power problems due to downed trees. The ground up there is saturated and it won't take much to knock down a ton of trees.
Quoting Hoynieva:


Billions? Really? That would mean over 600 million non-Americans actually care about the US weather enough to install a satellite which will receive TWC's signal. Try again.


Ok, maybe it was an exaggeration, but still...A lot of people watch TWC.
Would be nice to not see the 594dm ht contour over the Atl

1194. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, there is no way that 90L makes it to the Caribbean with a negative NAO right?


Probably not. If the system northwest of 90L is any indication, the ridge is far too weak there in the central Atlantic.
Dear Irene,

You are really throwing a kink in my plans. Moving a child into college for her freshman year in Washington, D.C. during a Cat 2/3/7 hurricane is not my idea of a good time. Not to mention the fact that I may have to leave early and return to Delaware so I can welcome, my parent, sister, brother in law, nephew, 3 cats and 2 dogs into my home. You are a colossal p.u.t.a. Just sayin'.
Love, Tink
TWC should go into Storm Alert mode if they want ratings.
1197. DVG
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I live in Indiana, there is a trough that is suppose to come thru Indiana around 1600 to 2400hrs, folks it's no where near Indianapolis,
The reason I mention this, is suppose to be the guiding feature that takes Hurricane Irene up the east coast,
Here is what I have to say, with the delay of the trough, this will have an impact on the track of Irene.
The forward speed of Irene will also have an effect on the track.The storm is 429 miles south south east of Miami Fl. the speed is 12 MPH or 35 hours away from landfall, the later the trough comes the further west the storm travels, which changes everything.
All need to watch this trough and it's timing to see if the models are correct.


I was also thinking as this has wobbled for 3 hours at a time west, as close as it is 2 or 3 wobbles west is maybe 50 mi closer to WPB.
The smaller the eye the more enhanced wind speeds within the eyewall increase because of less circumference to pass through.
Houston, we have lost visual on the eye, over.
Quoting Misogynist:
The people would never get educated if scientists only talked to scientists.
+1000!!
Quoting Levi32:


Well obviously people like you on a website like this are going to care. I've just been hearing a lot on TV about how people are accusing the media of overhyping this storm and that it won't be a big deal. It's been a while since New England has had a bad storm. The last one to really roar through there was Floyd 12 years ago, and the bigger storms are buried even farther down in history. I guess I'm just making sure the concern is voiced here, although as I said, most of you here already know, which is why you're here.


How many New Yorkers even know about the '38 storm? The majority of them will not be ready and they will be in a world of hurt because, as you say, they figure "What's the big deal?"
Quoting Gorty:
TWC has put all of southern New England in the extreme threat level LOL.


I don't get why you find that funny. There are millions of people on the East Coast that could be affected by this storm. Although I don't always agree with the TWC what they are doing in warning the NE is a good thing, it takes a long time to get millions of people prepared and out of harms way.
Quoting stexram:


Lets hope nippers makes it through without too much damage.
Yea. I helped build the pool and the new double decker decks there with the new kitchen in 98-99.

Just talked to Michael Roberts. Johnnys dad. He said they are ready.
1204. wpb
Quoting AllStar17:
TWC should go into Storm Alert mode if they want ratings.
brian norcross still there?
Quoting wolftribe2009:
based upon my experience in watching hurricanes. The "Pin Hole" eye that Irene has now is the most dangerous eye since they normally come with rapid intensification. NOAA stated in hurricane Wilma that the hurricane had the dreaded pin hole eye. We remember Wilma.


"WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ok, maybe it was an exaggeration, but still...A lot of people watch TWC.


Yes, I understand your point, just wanted to bring that down to a more believable number, such as say, 50-100 million.
Quoting wpb:
brian norcross still there?



Yes. He is the hurricane specialist. Dr. Rick Knabb is the hurricane expert.
I'm in NC south central and local news(wral) the met. said comp. m odels are trending east & Irene may not even hit Nc at all.
Quoting presslord:


Far more frightening than Irene...



+ about a million or so
Quoting Fotograffa:


And Cape Cod...


And lots of other places. Nor'easters generally have tropical storm force winds.
Living in South Jersey I'm a little apprehensive about the forecast calling for a category 2 off our coastline.
Ill tell them...  Im supposed to fly up there on monday... 


Guess that is a canceled trip..
Quoting Floodman:


How many New Yorkers even know about the '38 storm? The majority of them will not be ready and they will be in a world of hurt because, as you say, they figure "What's the big deal?"

Quoting willdunc79:
I'm in NC south central and local news(wral) the met. said comp. m odels are trending east & Irene may not even hit Nc at all.


Models have actually shifted a tad west in the latest runs.
Quite disappointed that I'm going to be out of town for the only possible hurricane in NYC in many years and long before I lived here.
Quoting atmoaggie:
That and they don't have nearly as many regular wind events exceeding ~40 mph as the south. Lots of tree limbs and trees that haven't been as regularly tested, for the most part.

(Yes, I know there are exceptions, such as Mt Washington.)


Yes I know building codes aren't great here, but a lot of old buildings in the northeast are waiting to get ripped to shreds. I noticed too that when Ive spent time up north power goes out twice as easy from thunderstorms as it does here. I'm sure newer buildings are built stronger, but I'm talking about old homes and old urban structures.


Also, trees down here are much stronger, Ive seen 70 to 80 mph thunderstorm wind events that fail to bring more than some tree limbs down, and maybe some old trees rotting on the inside. Where as 40 to 50 mph wind events do all kinds of damage up north to vegetation.

Now, on occasion when we have been affected by hurricanes in the Tampa Bay area, even 40 to 50 mph winds long term does as much damage as severe thunderstorm events at 60 to 70 mph due to long term persistence for hours as apposed to a few minutes in thunderstorms at most. So, when you're talking 60 to 70 mph like we had in Frances in Jeanne, that did an amazing amount of damage here because we had hours of that combined with bursts of extremely intense rain which helps to weigh down everything from roofs to trees, to power line supports when combined with wind. The wall of water in tropical cyclone rain bands I believe adds extra applied force to the wind. My rain gauge has shown that 4 to 5 inches per hour in short bursts is common in heavy bands. Hurricane cores can be quite a bit heavier.
Quoting tinkahbell:
Dear Irene,

You are really throwing a kink in my plans. Moving a child into college for her freshman year in Washington, D.C. during a Cat 2/3/7 hurricane is not my idea of a good time. Not to mention the fact that I may have to leave early and return to Delaware so I can welcome, my parent, sister, brother in law, nephew, 3 cats and 2 dogs into my home. You are a colossal p.u.t.a. Just sayin'.
Love, Tink


Umm, tink? If this thing tracks right they will come to your house only to ride out the storm as the worst of it runs over the top of you...not meaning to be the bearer of bad news, but, well, you know...
Quoting willdunc79:
I'm in NC south central and local news(wral) the met. said comp. m odels are trending east & Irene may not even hit Nc at all.


Well, that isn't true...
Quoting Hoynieva:


Billions? Really? That would mean over 600 million non-Americans actually care about the US weather enough to install a satellite which will receive TWC's signal. Try again.


The Weather Channel actually doing weather is like MTV going back to music. All TWC is now is documentaries and pushing the "green" agenda. CEO of TWC Dr. Heidi Cullen said before that "any meteorologist that doesn't believe in man made global warming should have their credentials taken away". That kind of stuff is not simply serving the public by detailing the weather.
If Irene stays offshore long enough for a Long Island landfall, does this have the potential to be stronger than Gloria in 1985?
1220. dewfree
mistake . yes i made one so im saying .
i did not post hugo on this forum .took a min to remeber exactely where i was and how i followed this storm like the other guy said his mom i was foloowing the storm via weather channel like most others at the time . but i was posting just not on any forum wasnt untill 97 that i joined the online group . before that i played with software on pc without internet . weather has always been greatest intrest so i followed all kinds of weather during the time and yes i was in charelston about 30 days after storm getting in on some of that hugo money . charelston is and was a very nice town .people there are friendly sort . somewhat the same sort you might find in savanah . im 45 years old and remeber everything in long term just ometimes i t takes a minute to gather those memmories in accuracy . so many to go threw you know . so unlike some i am correcting the story , but remeber the forecast tracks as it were yesterday . 1200 miles out is was suupose to recurve and just clip the outter banks . 600 miles out savanah .turn came between 400 and 300 miles out . now be very careful when you post about trolls . everyone here has a right to be here and give thier opinion . that is forecasting by the way opinion . education or not .
do not cattle and follow the group .mavericks have more claim to fame then anyoneand are ussually the ones i listen to because it is thier thought processes
that lead to cutting edge tech that others always seem to follow like cattle later on when that tech has become old . be the one instead to cut the edge and see what others do not . study and be yourselves reproved. dew
Quoting atmoaggie:
That and they don't have nearly as many regular wind events exceeding ~40 mph as the south. Lots of tree limbs and trees that haven't been as regularly tested, for the most part.

(Yes, I know there are exceptions, such as Mt Washington.)
,late autum cold fronts often bring gusty winds over 40 mph to the region,i use to live their,problem will be the sustained winds and saturated grounds,theyr use to gusts but 6+ hrs of sustained ts winds would bring down many older latge trees ,theirs going to be alot without power,maybe milloions
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, there is no way that 90L makes it to the Caribbean with a negative NAO right?



Just to add.

The NAO is trending back positive from it's low two days ago @ -0.76617E+00.

Current NAO (Could be why the models are trending west in the short term.)

-0.10917E+01
Good afternoon!
Quoting Floodman:


How many New Yorkers even know about the '38 storm? The majority of them will not be ready and they will be in a world of hurt because, as you say, they figure "What's the big deal?"


Next to nobody here even knows this storm exists. Heck, I have a friend on vacation in Kitty Hawk and he didn't even know Irene posed a threat until I told him this morning.
This could be a nightmare scenario for new England!!!!! My God...it's just horrifying to think about!!!! Seriously!!! This could do damage to a whole generation!!!! Has someone warned them FEMA is coming?!?!?!?!?!
Quoting Levi32:
Folks are used to storms weakening as they brush New England, and Irene will be no exception, but people don't realize that a Cat 1 in New England can do the same amount of total damage that a Cat 3 could do to states farther south, simply because of the extreme population density. It's a big deal, and Irene could even be a Cat 2 in New England, which becomes a disaster. It's not like it hasn't happened before with storms from history.


Additionally, there are a lot of old weak structures up in that area that haven't been hit by these kind of sustained high winds in decades. Not to mention brittle kinds of trees. S**t will be flying everywhere.

On the converse, the 2004 storms cleaned out a lot of the old weak structures in FL already and palm trees are designed by nature to survive hurricanes w/o falling.
Quoting Floodman:


How many New Yorkers even know about the '38 storm? The majority of them will not be ready and they will be in a world of hurt because, as you say, they figure "What's the big deal?"


Photos: Remembering The Great Hurricane Of '38
1228. Gorty
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't get why you find that funny. There are millions of people on the East Coast that could be affected by this storm. Although I don't always agree with the TWC what they are doing in warning the NE is a good thing, it takes a long time to get millions of people prepared and out of harms way.


Cause, who would of guessed western CT and western Mass would also be in it? I thought they would just keep me in high. Leading to believe I will receive stronger winds and more rain now than previously expected.
Quoting Levi32:


Well on the current NHC track, Friday morning puts the storm east of Florida and gives New England 48 hours until landfall there.

It should be noted that the storm is currently moving faster than forecast, and if that continues, the timetable may be bumped up a bit.


So would you guess they should have issued watches/warnings by Friday for the northeast? Of course, no one needs to wait for watches or warnings to get prepared.
Will the TWC go to storm alert mode?

Im pretty afraid now
Can someone tell Irene it's time to recurve North because it's getting closer to Florida and is not funny !!!!!
Quoting presslord:


Far more frightening than Irene...



Hahaha excellent
Quoting presslord:
This could be a nightmare scenario for new England!!!!! My God...it's just horrifying to think about!!!! Seriously!!! This could do damage to a whole generation!!!! Has someone warned them FEMA is coming?!?!?!?!?!

i just spewed my drink all over the computer screen...thanks Press. lol
1234. Levi32
A dropsonde north of the Bahamas shows that the low- mid-level atmosphere is still a bit dry.

Levi, what is your latest forecast track for Irene? Still got me in the TS force winds?
1236. JeffM
Quoting presslord:
This could be a nightmare scenario for new England!!!!! My God...it's just horrifying to think about!!!! Seriously!!! This could do damage to a whole generation!!!! Has someone warned them FEMA is coming?!?!?!?!?!


+1

FEMA will be on the scene to create even more damage.
she going west!!!
Quoting westernmob:
If Irene stays offshore long enough for a Long Island landfall, does this have the potential to be stronger than Gloria in 1985?
,very simular,i was living in ledyard,ct in sect when she made landfall,tree branches were 1 foot dep with large trees down everywhere
LMAO
Quoting presslord:
This could be a nightmare scenario for new England!!!!! My God...it's just horrifying to think about!!!! Seriously!!! This could do damage to a whole generation!!!! Has someone warned them FEMA is coming?!?!?!?!?!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What are you talking about? Millions to Billions of people watch the Weather Channel.
Joplin Tornado holds the record for the most TV viewers during a certain time period at 50 million people. Katrina may have more people watching it (1/2 of USA maybe?) but not at the same period of time.
i am really concerned for those up north.. southerners are used to hurricanes but those up north kinda shrug it off.. I just talked to my Mom and son whose in college in NJ.. they have this wait n see.. might get a little rain and some wind..the NJ beaches are really vulnerable too.. they are barrier islands which flood from the ocean and back bays.. and the local tv channels up there are not making much about it either.. not trying to be an alarmist but they should at least be getting some supplies in and such.. they think im overreacting.. im just worried..is there any chance this could possibly veer out and miss the northeast? i do appreciate your input.. thank you.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Will the TWC go to storm alert mode?

Im pretty afraid now


Well usually they do it for storms that pose a significant threat to the United States. I'm guessing that this storm fits that billing.
1245. Levi32
Quoting Fotograffa:


So would you guess they should have issued watches/warnings by Friday for the northeast? Of course, no one needs to wait for watches or warnings to get prepared.


If the storm reaches the forecasted position off the SE US coast on Friday morning and the track still takes the storm over New England, then watches would be issued 48 hours in advance by the NHC.
1246. snotly
Its about to make landfall at Long Island now.

Quoting westernmob:
If Irene stays offshore long enough for a Long Island landfall, does this have the potential to be stronger than Gloria in 1985?
Quoting AllStar17:



Yes. He is the hurricane specialist. Dr. Rick Knabb is the hurricane expert.


On Sunday, the woman in the studio in the afternoon called Irene "Ilene" and also had so many grammatical errors in her speech, I couldn't believe she had a job on television! I watch TWC because I don't have another station to watch. If there was an alternative, I would be all over it.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Can someone tell Irene it's time to recurve North because it's getting closer to Florida and is not funny !!!!!



Highly Unlikely it makes it to FL, however, 78W is the mark for bringing TS winds inland, it "could" get there based on what I am seeing.
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
she going west!!!


Stair stepping... Track it over the last 6 hours, Irene is going almost exactly NW.
I was calm until I started watching TWC.
Quoting Levi32:
A dropsonde north of the Bahamas shows that the low- mid-level atmosphere is still a bit dry.



you have source for that? been looking for that kind of product. thanks
Shhhhh. Nobody tell the cast of Jersey Shore......
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Raleigh in orange, Clayton on the borderline between orange and red.
Irene is still having a little dry air problem...You can see the outflow boundaries on the western side of the storm.

Quoting tinkahbell:
I was calm until I started watching TWC.

Cantore downing the 5 hour Energy drinks every 2 hours now I see?
Quoting BiloxiBlues:
NHC is not always right. They had Katrina landing in the middle of the Florida panhandle.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_grap hics.shtml
They are not always wrong either. I'm pretty satisfied they got this Irene forecast right. Always had it coming up or through most of the Bahamas.

10 or 12 days out. [not counting the other times when they had it in Houston or the GA Sea Islands.]
Quoting wxgeek723:
Living in South Jersey I'm a little apprehensive about the forecast calling for a category 2 off our coastline.


LOL. Same here
1258. stexram
Quoting Abacosurf:
Yea. I helped build the pool and the new double decker decks there with the new kitchen in 98-99.

Just talked to Michael Roberts. Johnnys dad. He said they are ready.


I hope so, they are really exposed to the wind right there. You all be safe!
1259. Jax82
she's a movin slow now it seems
1260. tea3781
Why do I feel so nervous here in East Central Florida. I know what the models say...but I remember what the models said for Charley too and they were all wrong.
1261. JNCali

Quoting presslord:
This could be a nightmare scenario for new England!!!!! My God...it's just horrifying to think about!!!! Seriously!!! This could do damage to a whole generation!!!! Has someone warned them FEMA is coming?!?!?!?!?!
Brutal Funny!!!   +100000000000000
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Joplin Tornado holds the record for the most TV viewers during a certain time period at 50 million people. Katrina may have more people watching it (1/2 of USA maybe?) but not at the same period of time.


Half the people that really wanted to watch TV couldn't because we had no power or were evacuating. Imagine if ALL of us were able to watch!
Quoting Levi32:


If the storm reaches the forecasted position off the SE US coast on Friday morning and the track still takes the storm over New England, then watches would be issued 48 hours in advance by the NHC.
Storm still threat to Mrytle Beach to Wilmington? Right now, it look like it'll hit Morehead City...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ok, maybe it was an exaggeration, but still...A lot of people watch TWC.


I watch now and then but not in the morning. Can't handle Stephanie Abrams at all!!
1265. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, what is your latest forecast track for Irene? Still got me in the TS force winds?


I like this morning's NHC track, though slightly farther west over the outer banks. That would have a shot at bringing Wilmington tropical storm conditions, though it will depend on how much the western side expands before then, as the largest part of the wind field is still to the east.
Ok I am in southeast florida ft lauderdale area about 1 mile from the beach why does this thing look like it is headed straight for us it looks like it is going west northwest not north west the wind has picked up steady 6 to 7 mph with gusts of about 12 to 13 mph i am just a bit concerned can anyone enlighten me please?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Highly Unlikely it makes it to FL, however, 78W is the mark for bringing TS winds inland, it "could" get there based on what I am seeing.



I have family living in Boynton Beach,FL
I am evacuating from the Virginia Beach area tomorrow afternoon to the Lynchburg area. I hope that keeps us far enough out of harms way..... (too bad its closer to earthquake epicenter) but that is neither here nor there.... LOL
1270. Brock31
.
.
.
"I'm freakin out man!"

...
.
.
"yes"
..
"you are freakin out"
.
.
.
.
.
"man"
just checking in. Is Tampa in the clear now?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Can someone tell Irene it's time to recurve North because it's getting closer to Florida and is not funny !!!!!


Hey don't worry, Irene isn't going to Florida, current steering currents would have to change drastically for that to happen.

By the way, since you live in Tampa now, how was that squall line for your area yesterday? I unfortunately was in Calc 2 class, so I couldn't experience it, but it produced a 51 mph gust at my house.
Quoting Levi32:


I like this morning's NHC track, though slightly farther west over the outer banks. That would have a shot at bringing Wilmington tropical storm conditions, though it will depend on how much the western side expands before then, as the largest part of the wind field is still to the east.
and you answered my question answering someone's question lol.
Someone bring out the DOOM:CON chart, as it may be time to upgrade the threat level, like TWC did!
1275. Levi32
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Storm still threat to Mrytle Beach to Wilmington? Right now, it look like it'll hit Morehead City...


SC is out of the NHC cone, but with these storms, you always want to keep a close eye on it until you see it physically passing east of you. South Carolina should keep their eyes peeled until it is obvious that they are safe. Right now, a major hurricane moving up the length of the Bahamas is not something to just ignore.
Looks like an EWRC is underway. When it clears out again we could see a move down to Cat 4. Probably another 8 to 12 hours before the eye fully rebuilds but with it will likely come another round of deepening. This would be most unfortunate if it palys out that way because Irene will then be approaching the most populated and developed of the Bahamas chain as a strengthening major hurricane.
Irene has moved 1.4W and 1.0N since 10:45 UTC.


What is that? A mixture between WNW and NW?
Quoting Jax82:


Cant believe anyone would ride out the cane on Crooked island, that had to be a wild ride.
They live there. You're right about the ride. A guy in Mayaguana called in to the radio this a.m. and you could hear the wind howling in the background. He had somebody else's roof in his yard. It was eerie from 400 miles away.
Quoting BobinTampa:
just checking in. Is Tampa in the clear now?


Yes it is, it would take some extreme changes in steering for Tampa to be hit.
1280. Zaphod
TAwx -- dry air may be there, but it's 100 miles from the center now, rather than wrapping the core. Or so it looks to me.
1281. Levi32
Quoting wxobsvps:


you have source for that? been looking for that kind of product. thanks


Decoded Recon Data
Quoting Hoynieva:
Quite disappointed that I'm going to be out of town for the only possible hurricane in NYC in many years and long before I lived here.


This is how I felt till I moved to Fl. and meet Wilma. It changed my thoughts about wanting to be in town for any cat1 or higher.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey don't worry, Irene isn't going to Florida, current steering currents would have to change drastically for that to happen.

By the way, since you live in Tampa now, how was that squall line for your area yesterday? I unfortunately was in Calc 2 class, so I couldn't experience it, but it produced a 51 mph gust at my house.


Jedkins, that line looked nasty on radar what kind of weather station do you have there?
Last time I watched TWC it was Lyons & I think Carver with a cameo by Hope

Happy 29th anniversary Hurricane Andrew down in Homestead, FL...as we are all fixated on another monster in the region...Hurricane Irene, who shall leave her own trail of destruction and scary stories for decades to come and go!

Hudson, FL weather


So glad this witch isn't in the Gulf...She's a beast. Feeling terrible for the Bahamas, though.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Can someone tell Irene it's time to recurve North because it's getting closer to Florida and is not funny !!!!!


I just sent her a text. She said another 12 hrs and 32 mins. It'll happen.
They need to knock it off with this 'Local on the 8s' nonsense
The only good news from this storm is the possibility that the cast of Jersey Shore may be washed out to sea.
1290. yoboi
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Cantore downing the 5 hour Energy drinks every 2 hours now I see?


he is not drinking energy drinks seems like he has an IV in him steady flow of energy drinks flowing soon will have people jumping out of high rises to escape the doom but don't worry FEMA will save the day....
You just can't predict these storms. Still remember Hugo - it didn't do what they said it was going to do. I think everyone from northern Florida up through Cape Cod needs to be watching Irene and not just on the coast. This storm is huge and Hugo was still a Cat 1 when it hit Charlotte which is over 200 miles from where it hit landfall!
Quoting wxobsvps:


you have source for that? been looking for that kind of product. thanks


Tropical Atlantic
Quoting wxgeek723:
Living in South Jersey I'm a little apprehensive about the forecast calling for a category 2 off our coastline.


I'm in S Jersey too. Get your supplies now before the things you need are gone.
Quoting kflhuds05:
Happy 29th anniversary Hurricane Andrew down in Homestead, FL...as we are all fixated on another monster in the region...Hurricane Irene, who shall leave her own trail of destruction and scary stories for decades to come and go!

Hudson, FL weather




Close 19th
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
she going west!!!



Still barely NW however, she will miss the next TFP by about 20 miles left and about 3 hours early, meaning Irene is moving faster than anticipated.
Quoting charlottefl:


Jedkins, that line looked nasty on radar what kind of weather station do you have there?


Lacrosse pro, a little cheaper than some of the other ones, I got it years ago and it still works great.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:
Someone bring out the DOOM:CON chart, as it may be time to upgrade the threat level, like TWC did!


"Game over man.....game OVER!"

Quoting Levi32:


SC is out of the NHC cone, but with these storms, you always want to keep a close eye on it until you see it physically passing east of you. South Carolina should keep their eyes peeled until it is obvious that they are safe. Right now, a major hurricane moving up the length of the Bahamas is not something to just ignore.
mmm... using lessons from Hugo, I agrees with you. However, Outer Banks landfall is more likely. This storm is so large that it could reach Triangle if it hit Morehead City directly (according to WRAL, that is...)
Concerning people choosing to ignore warnings. The price of your own freedom is allowing others to make bad decisions.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
based upon my experience in watching hurricanes. The "Pin Hole" eye that Irene has now is the most dangerous eye since they normally come with rapid intensification. NOAA stated in hurricane Wilma that the hurricane had the dreaded pin hole eye. We remember Wilma.


That would be a good point if Irene actually had a pinhole eye. But it's more like a small eye that is cloud-filled and trying to stave off the commencement of an eyewall replacement cycle.
the storm is comeing closeer and closer too FL evere day and it still have not seen march of a turn
Quoting kflhuds05:
Happy 29th anniversary Hurricane Andrew down in Homestead, FL...as we are all fixated on another monster in the region...Hurricane Irene, who shall leave her own trail of destruction and scary stories for decades to come and go!

Hudson, FL weather




1 decade off. 19th Anniversary..
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey don't worry, Irene isn't going to Florida, current steering currents would have to change drastically for that to happen.

By the way, since you live in Tampa now, how was that squall line for your area yesterday? I unfortunately was in Calc 2 class, so I couldn't experience it, but it produced a 51 mph gust at my house.


I live in Carrollwood and yes we experienced that squall line with very heavy rain and lightning but no strong winds in my area.
1304. kaiden
Quoting Fotograffa:


I watch now and then but not in the morning. Can't handle Stephanie Abrams at all!!


And now on with Al Roadkill its a big laugh and giggle show.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Irene has moved 1.4W and 1.0N since 10:45 UTC.


What is that? A mixture between WNW and NW?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Just to add.

The NAO is trending back positive from it's low two days ago @ -0.76617E+00.

Current NAO (Could be why the models are trending west in the short term.)

-0.10917E+01


Can you explain this?


Too early for gov. to issue evacuation orders?
She has been on a base course of 305 since this AM @ 5... wobbles... trochoid motion (yes, you can see it rolling down the base course line, watch over time... little humps in the motion on the NE side of the base course) notwithstanding, the course from 5AM to right now is still 305/306... and she is left of track by ~20 miles wrt to the 250200Z track forecast... which is pretty good forecasting overall... but the left bias is a bit disconcerting... also the steering levels (350 - 850) have a little bridge between the highs... that disappears at 250... so if she continues to strengthen, she will see the opening at 250mb...
Quoting Levi32:


I like this morning's NHC track, though slightly farther west over the outer banks. That would have a shot at bringing Wilmington tropical storm conditions, though it will depend on how much the western side expands before then, as the largest part of the wind field is still to the east.


Think Floyd's landfall point is too far west for Irene?

1310. HarryMc
Quoting Levi32:


If the storm reaches the forecasted position off the SE US coast on Friday morning and the track still takes the storm over New England, then watches would be issued 48 hours in advance by the NHC.


I was reading about that a while back. WATCH is issued 48 hours in advance, was 36 hours until 2010 season. WARNING is 36 hours in advance, was 24 hours until 2010 season.

Combined Watch and Warning is if marginal between tropical storm and hurricane and they aren't sure which will prevail... combined flag set is one square solid red and one square red with black square inside. I can't remember ever actually seeing a combined status though.

Trivia.
Eye cloud filled, ERC may have begun..or has one?
When's the next recon going into Irene?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I live in Carrollwood and yes we experienced that squall line with very heavy rain and lightning but no strong winds in my area.
I was asleep at the time, knocked out from the amount of work I got the first day of school.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Pretty much..
1315. 996tt
Leaving in the am for Cocoa and Sebastian Inlet and hoping Irene keeps her butt far enough off shore to send a nice 12 + swell without too much blown out chop. Should be sweet when winds shifts and she goes by late Friday. She is now welcome to turn NE and stay off shore as much as possible. Heres to following those Eastern outliers and shift even further east.
Quoting TruthCommish:


I just sent her a text. She said another 12 hrs and 32 mins. It'll happen.



thanks, I hope she received it.
I know we hear about sterring currents etc , but when exactly will she start to turn ?

Quoting Tazmanian:
the storm is comeing closeer and closer too FL evere day and it still have not seen march of a turn


The turn was not foretasted until early tomorrow morning.
Quoting largeeyes:
The only good news from this storm is the possibility that the cast of Jersey Shore may be washed out to sea.


PLEASE let that happen, I would like nothing more than to see those morons get washed away for good!
1321. Jax82
Quoting muddertracker:


"Game over man.....game OVER!"



haha, i love that movie!
Levi I absolutely love your tropical tidbits thank you for making them you do a wonderful job, keep it up man!
Quoting Tazmanian:
the storm is comeing closeer and closer too FL evere day and it still have not seen march of a turn


Dude, caffeine is not your friend.
Quoting kflhuds05:
Happy 29th anniversary Hurricane Andrew down in Homestead, FL...as we are all fixated on another monster in the region...Hurricane Irene, who shall leave her own trail of destruction and scary stories for decades to come and go!

Hudson, FL weather




Mhmm I was in Kendall in Miami-Dade county. Walking around after the storm and even looking back at the pictures now is something I'll never really comprehend.
Quoting tatoprweather:


Can you explain this?


Leaving the office now however, quickly and applying to the current situation. The NAO deals explicitly with the strength of the Bermuda High and The Islandic Low. Positive NAO means stronger high and stronger low, opposite for negative.
Quoting BobinTampa:
just checking in. Is Tampa in the clear now?


Yes, West Florida is in the clear. But we may get some gusty winds tomorrow and Friday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Irene is still having a little dry air problem...You can see the outflow boundaries on the western side of the storm.



Well you're always going to find relatively drier air on the west side of any storm, drier sinking air always occurs out ahead of hurricanes on the north and west side. Often times its not necessarily deep layer dry air. Usually out ahead of tropical cyclones you get high surface moisture trapped in the low layers below sinking air above, often supporting a very muggy and hot feel, and fast moving low topped showers are common, which is basically what you're seeing on the west side of Irene. Irene is actually a very well balanced and structured hurricane.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


PLEASE let that happen, I would like nothing more than to see those morons get washed away for good!


Come on, DJ Paulie Dee is pretty cool.
1329. NCSaint
Quoting PoconoLakefront:
Last time I watched TWC it was Lyons & I think Carver with a cameo by Hope



I quit watching after Bob Sheets retired. He at least did logical forecasting and explained the NHC computations. Didn't overhype, just the facts and reasonable warnings. I miss that guy!
FINALLY have power. What did I miss?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I live in Carrollwood and yes we experienced that squall line with very heavy rain and lightning but no strong winds in my area.


Strange, I live in Pinellas County, the rain and lighting was only short lived but we got blasted by wind.
Quoting PaulinJax:
I know we hear about sterring currents etc , but when exactly will she start to turn ?



She has already begun to turn NW, and she will likely begin a NNW-ward turn sometime tomorrow, with a more N-ward motion late tomorrow night or Friday morning.
Quoting jaxgrl48:
i am really concerned for those up north.. southerners are used to hurricanes but those up north kinda shrug it off.. I just talked to my Mom and son whose in college in NJ.. they have this wait n see.. might get a little rain and some wind..the NJ beaches are really vulnerable too.. they are barrier islands which flood from the ocean and back bays.. and the local tv channels up there are not making much about it either.. not trying to be an alarmist but they should at least be getting some supplies in and such.. they think im overreacting.. im just worried..is there any chance this could possibly veer out and miss the northeast? i do appreciate your input.. thank you.


I can't speak for media outlets all over NJ or Philadelphia but here in S Jersey they are talking about it. Until the NHC actually issues something or makes a statement I think a lot of people will take a wait and see approach. Until then some people might consider all this just hype...they want something official. Personally, I have my batteries and other needs in already...but I'm not a last minute type person.
Quoting Jax82:


Cant believe anyone would ride out the cane on Crooked island, that had to be a wild ride.
They live there. You're right about the ride. A guy in Mayaguana called in to the radio this a.m. and you could hear the wind howling in the background. He had somebody else's roof in his yard. It was eerie from 400 miles away.

Quoting robodave:
Has anyone compared its current location to the forecast NHC made 2 days ago? I'd like to do that, but don't know. Or compared the current forecast to the forecast 2 days ago. Both ideas are interesting.
NHC's Graphics Archive can help you do this.

Quoting SLU:
Damage reports coming from the Bahamas.
Thanks for this, SLU... nice to see the Tribune doing this.
So whats going on with Irene, just got back from school and I see she has made it to cat 3, also see that there was a pressure reading of 954.
Expect TD #10 tomorrow.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:



thanks, I hope she received it.

Trust me. If I'm wrong you get double your money back!
Adios All. NHC still right of guidance, near term. Down the center long term.

Even if you don't get TS force, or stronger, winds from Irene, expect some low lying areas to flood.

This is the EXTRATROPICAL Surge Guidance product, fairly coarse and probably wind-forced by NAM or GFS. It will not show the highest surge values.

Mid-Atlantic, some areas where water moving ~NW, then west, then SW gets trapped show the highest values. For example, I'd expect Willoughby Spit in Norfolk to be under, possible high levels along the St John's river in the Tidewater area.



In New England (the model only goes 96 hours out), it looks like all of New Jersey could get at least a few feet above normal and (yet to be shown) expect 10 feet above normal for Long Island, Rhode Island, SE Mass, IF Irene passes to your west.


Also worth noting: Spring tide coming with the new moon this weekend. Tidal ranges will go up a few feet:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I live in Carrollwood and yes we experienced that squall line with very heavy rain and lightning but no strong winds in my area.
,had 40-50mph winds here in srq,i posted a couple pics,i also saw a funnel out over the gulf
,shuld get another nasty round in abouta hrs,thatbline yesterday was that outflow boundry that was assiocaited with the low tgat died off sc,thatboundry got pushed allthe way accrross the state..anyone in my area notice how cool it was after the storms last night it was only 71* !!!

1341. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Think Floyd's landfall point is too far west for Irene?



It looks like it will be by a bit, but as always, things can change. We saw it shift east. It could shift slightly west between now and then. We will be watching the turn that will be occurring in the Bahamas closely over the next couple of days to see if she is following the models or not.
1342. Walshy
Levi32

Do you think its possible that Greensboro, NC and maybe areas slightly west will see clouds from Irene?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
FINALLY have power. What did I miss?
Irene marching toward East Coast as monster Category 3 storm (almost 4) and expected to hit New York as a Category 1/2 hurricane.
ON a quick break from work (in wilmington)... any change from this morning? Models looking the same or shifting slightly west? Feeling like we'll be ok but a jump west could put us right back in the cone... being on the west side of the storm by 70 miles and a cat 4 over my head is a pretty big difference, feeling safe but watching closely jw about any changes since this morning? TIA
Quoting westFLtropics:


Yes, West Florida is in the clear. But we may get some gusty winds tomorrow and Friday.


Not even that, regular diurnal convective storms and slightly more breezy than usual.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Strange, I live in Pinellas County, the rain and lighting was only short lived but we got blasted by wind.
Wow! I must have really been knocked out not to hear anything.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
FINALLY have power. What did I miss?


A major hurricane that should become a Category 4 hurricane tomorrow and then scrape NC as a 2/3 and then the NE as a 1/2.

Nothing too significant...
Quoting BobinTampa:
just checking in. Is Tampa in the clear now?



As long as you have those Indian burial grounds you are :)
Quoting uptxcoast:
Shhhhh. Nobody tell the cast of Jersey Shore......


LOL!!!
1350. 996tt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Think Floyd's landfall point is too far west for Irene?



Yeah. Floyd different set up. I remember Floyd's swell. Nice Double over head barrels you could drive a truck through. Won't be that nice this go around due to Irene's path coming in. If Irene stay strong, she hopefully will be well of shore of CONUS and big waves will be her prime remembrence.
Significant northerly component to Irene's fwd motion shouldn't be expected today at all. That doesn't mean FL is in the crosshairs.

What is important is where the weakness between the ATL high and CONUS high gets established. Right now it is over the Eastern CONUS and western ATL.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wow! I must have really been knocked out not to hear anything.


Yeah you must have! It was an impressive line.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
FINALLY have power. What did I miss?


Welcome back Nerd....(you don't want to know) lol!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Irene marching toward East Coast as monster Category 3 storm (almost 4) and expected to hit New York as a Category 1/2 hurricane.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A major hurricane that should become a Category 4 hurricane tomorrow and then scrape NC as a 2/3 and then the NE as a 1/2.

Nothing too significant...

OK, not much.
Quoting Levi32:


It looks like it will be by a bit, but as always, things can change. We saw it shift east. It could shift slightly west between now and then. We will be watching the turn that will be occurring in the Bahamas closely over the next couple of days to see if she is following the models or not.


Levi, does Wilmington being in "the cone" mean we are still a possible landfall location... or just means we could receive major impacts but not a direct hit?
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


PLEASE let that happen, I would like nothing more than to see those morons get washed away for good!


I know your just joking.. but my elderly Mother lives there on the southern jersey shore (the real one)..and No she doesnt wear a bumpit. I have seen what a n'oreaster does there.. can't even imagine a cat 2 or 3 hurricane..
1357. oakland
Quoting Jedkins01:


Strange, I live in Pinellas County, the rain and lighting was only short lived but we got blasted by wind.


We had it all in Ellenton. Lightning, heavy rain, strong winds....
Quoting 996tt:


Yeah. Floyd different set up. I remember Floyd's swell. Nice Double over head barrels you could drive a truck through. Won't be that nice this go around due to Irene's path coming in. If Irene stay strong, she hopefully will be well of shore of CONUS and big waves will be her prime remembrence.
rats got blown out of the palm trees on that one
1359. Zaphod
Even generously assuming wobbles, the path sure looks to be a bit lower and faster than forecast. Not by much, though.

The initialization point seemed to be a little off too, with the storm starting just a tad N of the forecast point, but perhaps within wobble-range.

With at least four days of forecast range where a few miles may make the difference for millions of people, this will have a high interest factor for us and a huge pucker factor for public officials.
Quoting wxobsvps:
Significant northerly component to Irene's fwd motion shouldn't be expected today at all. That doesn't mean FL is in the crosshairs.

What is important is where the weakness between the ATL high and CONUS high gets established. Right now it is over the Eastern CONUS and western ATL.


But would you agree it increases our chances of at least a period of sustained TS force winds along the mid to south eastern coast?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I live in Carrollwood and yes we experienced that squall line with very heavy rain and lightning but no strong winds in my area.

Looks like you all in Tampa had more "weather" yesterday..I am up in Hudson in Pasco Co and only had a 14mph gust but the temp dropped nearly 10 deg in just minutes..awesome downdrafts!! Looking forward to a breezy day tomorrow with Irene influencing an overall drier than usual day in the Tampa Bay area..

Hudson, FL weather
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When's the next recon going into Irene?


Kermit is on his way.

Slightly off-topic, but something Dr. Masters wrote of extensively a few months ago: it turns out that the Wallow Fire--Arizona's largest ever--wasn't set by illegal immigrants (as so many were far too quick to assume), but by a pair of camping brothers who failed to properly extinguish their breakfast blaze.

840 square miles of forest destroyed just for a couple of scrambled eggs and a pot of coffee. Good deal...
This storm Irene hasn't entered into the warmest patch of water yet gulp.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah you must have! It was an impressive line.


I was out running in that. Got out of the car, looked at the sky and said 'I'll be done before that gets here.'

The good news is you feel really dedicated when you're running in the rain.



591dm high NE of Irene at +18
Quoting Neapolitan:
Slightly off-topic, but something Dr. Masters wrote of extensively a few months ago: it turns out that the Wallow Fire--Arizona's largest ever--wasn't set by illegal immigrants (as so many were far too quick to assume), but by a pair of camping brothers who failed to properly extinguish their breakfast blaze.

840 square miles of forest destroyed just for eggs and a pot of coffee. Nice...


What does that have to do with the price of Tea in China?
Quoting Gorty:


Cause, who would of guessed western CT and western Mass would also be in it? I thought they would just keep me in high. Leading to believe I will receive stronger winds and more rain now than previously expected.


Well I just hope everyone in it's path takes it seriously. I've lived through several living in the Florida Panhandle and trust me even a Cat 1 can wreak havoc when it brings down a lot of rain and wind gusts over 120 mph. If this storm rides the Gulf Stream with higher than normer water temps in the NE it could easily roll in as a strong Cat 2 or minimal Cat 3, there's just no telling right now how it's going to play out and people need to take it seriously. Best of luck.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey don't worry, Irene isn't going to Florida, current steering currents would have to change drastically for that to happen.

By the way, since you live in Tampa now, how was that squall line for your area yesterday? I unfortunately was in Calc 2 class, so I couldn't experience it, but it produced a 51 mph gust at my house.


I would have to see some major turn north for it NOT to hit Florida.
This is a randomly picked street view from Chatham MA. It won't take a well trained eye to see why cat1 will do as much damage up there as a Cat3 would in FL:

Link

Quoting Neapolitan:
Slightly off-topic, but something Dr. Masters wrote of extensively a few months ago: it turns out that the Wallow Fire--Arizona's largest ever--wasn't set by illegal immigrants (as so many were far too quick to assume), but by a pair of camping brothers who failed to properly extinguish their breakfast blaze.

840 square miles of forest destroyed just for eggs and a pot of coffee. Nice...


One natural disaster caused by a couple of others.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A major hurricane that should become a Category 4 hurricane tomorrow and then scrape NC as a 2/3 and then the NE as a 1/2.

Nothing too significant...


Regardless if it hits as a cat 1/2, there will be damage due the size and scope of this storm. Just watch and learn.
1373. Dakster
Quoting Tazmanian:
the storm is comeing closeer and closer too FL evere day and it still have not seen march of a turn


?? Confused ??

Seems to be following the NHC tracks to me...
Irene looks to me like she is moving faster than the NHC track shows. Pretty much on track though.
Quoting oakland:


We had it all in Ellenton. Lightning, heavy rain, strong winds....


I'm on Terra Ceia Bay. Looks like another round in early evening. I opened my windows for the first time in months last night.
Quoting atmosweather:


She has already begun to turn NW, and she will likely begin a NNW-ward turn sometime tomorrow, with a more N-ward motion late tomorrow night or Friday morning.


She's been on that course all day, though the track is slightly west of the NHC plots. It's wait and see on the turn. Just because the NHC says it will doesn't make it so, especially with the flattened trough and nudging in of the Bermuda high.
1377. Gorty
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A major hurricane that should become a Category 4 hurricane tomorrow and then scrape NC as a 2/3 and then the NE as a 1/2.

Nothing too significant...


Right because 1/2 category is not significant for NYC and New England... Please don't mislead people.
1378. Levi32
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Levi, does Wilmington being in "the cone" mean we are still a possible landfall location... or just means we could receive major impacts but not a direct hit?


The cone represents the typical error of the NHC forecast as it goes out in time, where historically, the storm stays within the cone 70% of the time. A good rule of thumb is that if you're in the cone, then you are a possible landfall location and should keep a very close eye on the storm. However, we have seen many storms where the entire cone missed where the storm actually tracked, so it's not a hard rule. Here, I think the current cone is a pretty good representation of what the risk area is along the eastern seaboard.
Quoting Dakster:


?? Confused ??

Seems to be following the NHC tracks to me...


Its about 30-40 miles west of the track.
Quoting VieraChris:


But would you agree it increases our chances of at least a period of sustained TS force winds along the mid to south eastern coast?


I'm not yet sold that SC/NC doesn't get landfall. Once we see where the weakness really is when the true North turn happens that will tell the tale better
Quoting PaulinJax:
I know we hear about sterring currents etc , but when exactly will she start to turn ?

At 11:28:21 p.m. GMT tonight.
Quoting ecupirate:


What does that have to do with the price of Tea in China?

Not sure, but at least as much as 127 posts about the cast of Jersey Shore vis-a-vis Irene's approach. ;-)
1383. Levi32
Back later.
Quoting 996tt:
Leaving in the am for Cocoa and Sebastian Inlet and hoping Irene keeps her butt far enough off shore to send a nice 12 + swell without too much blown out chop. Should be sweet when winds shifts and she goes by late Friday. She is now welcome to turn NE and stay off shore as much as possible. Heres to following those Eastern outliers and shift even further east.
bunch of closeouts so far
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Still barely NW however, she will miss the next TFP by about 20 miles left and about 3 hours early, meaning Irene is moving faster than anticipated.


Meaning she'll brush closer to WPB, right?
And to clarify, 30-40 miles a day west of the NHC track puts tropical or hurricane force winds in South Florida.
You people need to learn when the sarcasm flag is on, lol.
Quoting txag91met:


Regardless if it hits as a cat 1/2, there will be damage due the size and scope of this storm. Just watch and learn.


Watch and learn a sense of humor.
Exactly


Quoting flasooner:


Meaning she'll brush closer to WPB, right?
Quoting wxobsvps:


I'm not yet sold that SC/NC doesn't get landfall. Once we see where the weakness really is when the true North turn happens that will tell the tale better


Sorry I left out a key word for my question: Florida!
I live on the east coast of Florida, just north of Melbourne. Please reanswer with that qualification....Thanks!
Has NHC put out the new advisory yet?
1392. oakland
Quoting Bradenton:


I'm on Terra Ceia Bay. Looks like another round in early evening. I opened my windows for the first time in months last night.


I see the clouds to the west but probably won't have anything, if we get anything, until around dinner time again.
Quoting charlottefl:


1 decade off. 19th Anniversary..
If I only could count today...I looked at my watch 3x earlier and still couldn't get the time right :) Thanks for the correction!!

Hudson, FL weather
Quoting BahaHurican:
Has NHC put out the new advisory yet?


No. How is the weather there?
1395. HarryMc
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not sure, but at least as much as 127 posts about the cast of Jersey Shore vis-a-vis Irene's approach. ;-)


Hey Nea. Complements on your new avatar. Is that just for the active hurricane?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You people need to learn when the sarcasm flag is on, lol.


You could just say that the sarcasm flag is on and then no one would be confused... lol ;-)
Bermuda High is beginning to weaken and move back to the east again.

15UTC:



18UTC:

1398. HarryMc
Quoting BahaHurican:
Has NHC put out the new advisory yet?


Full advisory at 5.
Correct..Irene went almost due west from 10 AM for about 3 hours regardless of what NHC said making the track approx. .5 degrees westward.


Quoting TropicalXprt:


Its about 30-40 miles west of the track.
And what was this I heard about the "dreaded pinhole eye"?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS HARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
1402. Hoff511
Quoting BahaHurican:
Has NHC put out the new advisory yet?


NOT YET F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 .......
1403. Titoxd
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS HARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
yes, the advisory is out
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HARD...
5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.1°N 74.7°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
1406. jonelu
I was just at Governor's Island in Eleuthera Bahamas. Beautiful island with very nice people. Its the long Island to the east of Nassau. Looks like they are are going to get a direct hit. So sad....my thoughts are with them.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You people need to learn when the sarcasm flag is on, lol.


You need to learn how to express it.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Bermuda High is beginning to weaken and move back to the east again.

15UTC:



18UTC:



Wrong steering layer, use this:

It's up. Track is unchanged.
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

1411. HCW
1412. Titoxd
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242053
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

1413. Gorty
HENRY M'S TWEET:

"I think the model trend tonight and tomorrow will be West with the track."

NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR US HERE IN NEW ENGLAND!
1414. aimetti
i just saw on local weather here in CT that long island sound has low 80 temps. That may not be hot like down south but I would imagine it couldn't hurt keeping it alive longer if it were to take that path?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Bermuda High is beginning to weaken and move back to the east again.

15UTC:



18UTC:



Your looking at the wrong levels.

You need to look at the 300-850 MB levels, that fits with the storm current pressure best.
1416. JeffM
Here comes a dozen post showing the new update.
Westward shift.
Quoting Floodman:


How many New Yorkers even know about the '38 storm? The majority of them will not be ready and they will be in a world of hurt because, as you say, they figure "What's the big deal?"

1938 Hurricane
1419. 996tt
Quoting TropicalXprt:


I would have to see some major turn north for it NOT to hit Florida.


It better turn and stay out to sea as I will be arriving in Cocoa Beach area in the am. Laird Hamilton and the Mav crew are in town also for the swell. Haha, I think the surfers know more about where a hurricane is going than the weather forecasters as we live for this stuff in the US were the waves blow 90 % of the time.
Wind field expanded again:


IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS.
“There is still a lot of uncertainty,” said Jorge Aguirre, a 17-year veteran meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. “These things are often unpredictable. I would not say Florida is completely off the hook just yet. It’s going to be a very close call.”

Just saying-I think it will miss Florida-but I prefer to trust the NHC.
Quoting jonelu:
I was just at Governor's Island in Eleuthera Bahamas. Beautiful island with very nice people. Its the long Island to the east of Nassau. Looks like they are are going to get a direct hit. So sad....my thoughts are with them.


Didn't Eleuthra get fairly torn up a few years ago? I think with Frances?
1423. NCSCguy
Quoting charlottefl:


Wrong steering layer, use this:

Is the trof supposed to open that gap more? If so where and how strong is it now?
Quoting BahaHurican:
And what was this I heard about the "dreaded pinhole eye"?


Doesn't exist with Irene, no need to worry about it. Just more wishcasters hoping for an even worse disaster. Her eye is 18-20 miles wide and is being obscured occasionally by overshooting cloud tops.
1425. Seastep
Quoting listenerVT:
It's up. Track is unchanged.


Shifted W in the near-term, as it had to.
1426. ncbound
Hi guys, reference to rain storms in Pinellas, Hillsborough, and points north and south yesterday. I work overnights and was asleep. The storms jarred me out of bed with the lightning and thunder. Had 2 inches of rain in very short period of time and a few wind gusts rattled the house and trees. I am in Brooksville (Istachatta) 1 block south of the Citrus County line and was part of what hit Floral City.
Intensity forecast shows a Cat 2 when it approaches East Manhattan.
Conditions here: Overcast with gusts to tropical storm force; Winds are steady at about 15mph. Gusts are getting more frequent.
Quoting listenerVT:
It's up. Track is unchanged.


That'll be because the 5pm track hasn't been released yet.
NEW BLOG
from what I've seen, the Hurricane has hit most of the forecast points today with very little deviation.

Anyway nobody should be forecasting any specific landfall points. And saying that Florida is "definitely going to get hit" is about as unlikely to happen as claiming that the Hurricane is going to suddenly turn south, cross the equator, and round South America before coming back up and striking California. Florida, believe it or not, is still a very slight possible landfall point... but to claim that you KNOW it's going to hit there is absolutely ridiculous.

My feelings on the storm today are basically unchanged from yesterday. I think it will cross over or just east of the outer banks of NC before striking the central or eastern southern New England coastline. But by no means am I promising or guaranteeing this.
Tropicalanalyst...Good call on the EWRC. After you showed me the microwave pass, I believed you anyway. Lol.
1433. Gorty
TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5... JUST READ IT PEOPLE.
1434. Seastep
Actually, slight W overall.
Quoting listenerVT:
It's up. Track is unchanged.


Track page hasn't been updated since 2 pm update, they should update it soon.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Your looking at the wrong levels.

You need to look at the 300-850 MB levels, that fits with the storm current pressure best.


Quoting charlottefl:


Wrong steering layer, use this:



Okay, thank you. Still shows the high moving east.
Quoting Gorty:
HENRY M'S TWEET:

"I think the model trend tonight and tomorrow will be West with the track."

NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR US HERE IN NEW ENGLAND!


Sounds like a ratings whore stunt for his "tweetsters".
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HARD...
5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.1°N 74.7°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
Im at 23.27 and 75.41 and it't not very nice here.
Quoting Gorty:
TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST... JUST READ IT PEOPLE.


Can't hear you.
Pinhole Eye alert!!

Quoting charlottefl:


Wrong steering layer, use this:



do those steering currents look like it is squeezing Irene a little closer to Florida?
NEW BLOG
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/75.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
The storm has gotten bigger... the TS wind field has expanded to 230 miles now. Hmmm...

Also, it appears as if the motion will cause it to miss the NHC projected location for 8pm, it would have to go 0.3N and 0.1W, or practically NNW to make that one happen, e.g. it will be NW or WNW of that point by about 20 miles or so, based on RGB loop.
1447. jonelu
Quoting tinkahbell:


Didn't Eleuthra get fairly torn up a few years ago? I think with Frances?
Frances was in 2004. They got hit pretty hard....but that was quite awhile ago..
No change with the 5 PM advisory, not even pressure....interesting
this is from hurricane IKE from 2008


note that this storm and IKE is this about the same

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.


ok may be not the same but geting closer





this is from Hurricane IRENE



IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS
Quoting SPLbeater:
No change with the 5 PM advisory, not even pressure....interesting


Because she hasn't intensified or weakened and even if she has there aren't any HH planes or significant surface obs to confirm it.
Quoting TropicalXprt:


I would have to see some major turn north for it NOT to hit Florida.
Yep. Never mind all of the multiple-million dollar computer model forecasting systems. Never mind the expertise of literally hundreds of meteorologists, most of them tropical WX specialists. Never mind the NOAA "Kermit" plane. That plane alone cost about $500 million but clearly it was a total waste of money. And the Air Force Reserve's Hurricane Hunter fleet? Blech!

Forget about all of that. All you need to do is look at your screen, watch the eye moving WNW and.. bada boom, bada bing! It's Florida for sure!
Rain is down again in SWern New Providence.
1453. scCane
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Bermuda High is beginning to weaken and move back to the east again.

15UTC:



18UTC:

Wrong steering layer here's the layer which Irene is in.

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Pinhole Eye alert!!



It's not a pinhole eye, its a cloud-obscured eye created by overshooting cloud tops in the inner western eyewall and an impending eyewall replacement cycle that has been on the verge of beginning since this morning.
1455. ncstorm
umm..the track shifted west..more of NC in the cone..
1456. ncstorm
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is from hurricane IKE from 2008


note that this storm and IKE is this about the same

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.


ok may be not the same but geting closer





this is from Hurricane IRENE



IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS


so now the center has gone from 40 to 60 miles since this morning..if this gets to a Cat 4, we may be looking at a center with a 100 mile radius
Hellow bloggers: I live in Morovis, PR (northern central part of the island). I do not experienced any wind stronger than 30 MPH by the time the hurricane passed tru my area. (heaviest winds were apparently concentrated to the east of the center). Rain was also minimal. BUT rain was torrential yesterday (from the Irenes'tail). Steering conditions support another visit from another system in the near future... (IMO)
How far west did the cone shift? is the center of the cone over Cape Hatteras again?
Shortly after 5 p.m. this afternoon, the outer bands of Irene arrived at New Providence. We got this message from the sudden uptick in wind gusts and a brief deluge of tropical rain.

Quoting SPLbeater:
How far west did the cone shift? is the center of the cone over Cape Hatteras again?





5pm.
Quoting ncstorm:
umm..the track shifted west..more of NC in the cone..


Not west, just north - in the 3 day cone.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Rain is down again in SWern New Providence.
We have about 2" per hr here.
Quoting SPLbeater:
How far west did the cone shift? is the center of the cone over Cape Hatteras again?


Almost over the outer banks.
The NWS doppler Radar interruption (several hours without operation) since the system center just entered my island (PR) is very suspicious...
People in the path (or nesr it) of Irene take caution, even if you wish to experience the storm. Take care of yourself and your family/pets...
Anybody interested to receive information on what happened in PR during/after the storm please contact me by this media...
3 new HH in the air.. two into the storm... 1 sampling



1468. cutgr
dont know what it is about SC..but im glad this is where i live..seems like we have a blocker here every time knocking storms away from us.i hope this one spares everyone.
Quoting Gorty:
HENRY M'S TWEET:

"I think the model trend tonight and tomorrow will be West with the track."

NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR US HERE IN NEW ENGLAND!

referring to Margusity on Accu?
1471. snotly
Sort of shows up on the shortwave IR that a bigger eye wall is trying to form


Link
1472. dipchip
Over the past 6 hours the storm has moved .7 degrees N and .8 degrees W. That calculates to course track 313 or 2 degrees short of NW.

the previous 6 hours the storm has moved .8 degrees N and 1 degree W. That calculates to course track 310 or 5 degrees short of NW.

The storms track has shifted further to the right each 6 hour period for the past 24 hours.
1473. jonelu
Quoting BahaHurican:
Are you in the Bahamas and if so what island?
I've been a member for a long time... but rarely post. This set up is interesting to me.. and i'd love the illuminate to comment. It seems that the initial trough(today) did not induce the NNW turn that was expected. There is argument, but the general path is NW to WNW depending on what time frame you look at.

Given the CIMSS steering maps, and the 310 NHC( I know wobbly) motion, have the models missed it? my understanding was that the first trough was supposed to turn her NW then NNW, then the 2nd trough was to pull her further east..... ok

Based on the current CIMSS maps and situation, the first trough seems to have failed to do it's job. The second may well... but that is hours/days off, and we're running out of real estate.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something... but should they not have at least warnings up on the florida east coast? I'm on the west coast.... so this is clearly not my storm, but it looks to me like it's(given it's size) gonna give some pain to the FL east coast.
1475. RMCF
the New York hurricane show is on the History channel now.
1476. jonelu
Quoting FTmyersZ:
I've been a member for a long time... but rarely post. This set up is interesting to me.. and i'd love the illuminate to comment. It seems that the initial trough(today) did not induce the NNW turn that was expected. There is argument, but the general path is NW to WNW depending on what time frame you look at.

Given the CIMSS steering maps, and the 310 NHC( I know wobbly) motion, have the models missed it? my understanding was that the first trough was supposed to turn her NW then NNW, then the 2nd trough was to pull her further east..... ok

Based on the current CIMSS maps and situation, the first trough seems to have failed to do it's job. The second may well... but that is hours/days off, and we're running out of real estate.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something... but should they not have at least warnings up on the florida east coast? I'm on the west coast.... so this is clearly not my storm, but it looks to me like it's(given it's size) gonna give some pain to the FL east coast.
so far local news is only posting Tropical Storm watch for the waters off the coast. Rip tides, heavy surf erosion. Squally weather off and on tomorrow.... They must feel faily confidant of the track because with such a large population on the southern coast...if there was any doubts they would be atleast issuing TS WATCH...
Well put!
It's so amazing..There seems to be an excuse for each time the storm misses a turn and there are those who coveniently forget their first proclamation..I do not live and die for this but if one stands back and watches you can laugh at all the troughs and what they were suppose to do. Another joke is the people who want the storm in the northern areas will never allow an honest analysis that the storm still has a more west component in track versus a north bias up this point.




Quoting FTmyersZ:
I've been a member for a long time... but rarely post. This set up is interesting to me.. and i'd love the illuminate to comment. It seems that the initial trough(today) did not induce the NNW turn that was expected. There is argument, but the general path is NW to WNW depending on what time frame you look at.

Given the CIMSS steering maps, and the 310 NHC( I know wobbly) motion, have the models missed it? my understanding was that the first trough was supposed to turn her NW then NNW, then the 2nd trough was to pull her further east..... ok

Based on the current CIMSS maps and situation, the first trough seems to have failed to do it's job. The second may well... but that is hours/days off, and we're running out of real estate.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something... but should they not have at least warnings up on the florida east coast? I'm on the west coast.... so this is clearly not my storm, but it looks to me like it's(given it's size) gonna give some pain to the FL east coast.
Sorry.... i was referring to TS watches inland... not off the coast.... seems reasonable to me.
With Hurricane Warnings on Grand Bahama island and Trop. Storm Warning along the offshore waters you would think it prudent to at least have a Tropical Storm Watch for the Fl. East Coast. I am not sure why there is so much under-warning for the Fl. East Coast.

I worked for a number of years as a Met Tech at PBI (west palm beach) and there was one thing drilled into us as we had local zone forecast responsibility and that was always better to over-warn and safeguard against surprises. My MIC was Buck Christian and he was an old school guy with common sense. Today's young professors forget common sense sometimes ....
New GFS track has been nudged slightly west as expected
She's beautiful
The blogg just stopped or it is very congested ....
Quoting weatherjr:
The blogg just stopped or it is very congested ....


Yea ik noones posted in an hour or so
Where are all of the posts - has everyone just gone home???
Quoting BahaHurican:
Conditions here: Overcast with gusts to tropical storm force; Winds are steady at about 15mph. Gusts are getting more frequent.


Hang in there, Baha...it was great pleasure, by the way, finally getting to talk with you, however briefly, on the conference call last night
Quoting Charmeck:
Where are all of the posts - has everyone just gone home???


This happened to me last night .... everyone just seemed to disappear. You'd think with a storm of this magnitude there would be a lot of people still talking. I'm still concerned as I live in Central Florida. Everyone is talking the party line that this storm is going to take a turn North around 78W. Well, what happens if it doesn't? Where would Irene end up? What is it that determines that turn?

I'm new to all of this and really would like answers to "newbie" questions.
Quoting ncbound:
Hi guys, reference to rain storms in Pinellas, Hillsborough, and points north and south yesterday. I work overnights and was asleep. The storms jarred me out of bed with the lightning and thunder. Had 2 inches of rain in very short period of time and a few wind gusts rattled the house and trees. I am in Brooksville (Istachatta) 1 block south of the Citrus County line and was part of what hit Floral City.


Crazy- I'm in Brooksville too
I posted this yesterday afternoon. No one commented or mentioned it. Aside from the fact that I was right, is anyone here engaging in real wx analysis and chat, or is the thread limited to storm rooting and eccentric wobble posts? Just wondering.



Quoting hswiseman:
The CMC 12Z shows a full-blown Fujiwara and the HWRF 06Z (98I)seems to detect the weakness but doesn't develop a cyclone, as the second low gets absorbed in the stalled front and behaves more like a short-wave. It is possible that Irene leaves enough subsidence in its wake to protect the secondary circulation and allow deepening. The deeper it gets, however, the more likely it detaches from Irene and follows the weakness of the offshore front. The CMC shows the polar vortex receding northwestward and intensifying, essentially retrograde, and this scenario is how you get a NYC landfall. I think this is plausible. The CMC Fujiwara solution drags the system east in total, offsetting the retrograde polar trough. I think this is implausible (20%). The CMC shows how the easterly trend finally ends, and leaves NYC-SNE totally open for business.
Also posted yesterday. You are all welcome.
Quoting hswiseman:
The Canadian intensifies the polar vortex and has it building NW in a retrograde fashion. Their tropical solution is goofy, but they are very strong on polar/sub polar synoptic weather. The original GFDL track is not out of the question (Delaware\NJ\Adirondacks).
1490. 800733
what is everyons thoughts on TD10 for the coming weeks?